State capital city in Idaho, United States
Today's Mystery:A man hires Spade after receiving an ominous warning that his life is in peril from a dangerous red-headed woman.Original Radio Broadcast Date: March 16, 1951Originated from HollywoodStarred Steven Dunne as Sam Spade, Lurene Tuttle as EffieSupport the show monthly at patreon.greatdetectives.netSupport the show on a one-time basis at http://support.greatdetectives.net.Mail a donation to: Adam Graham, PO Box 15913, Boise, Idaho 83715Take the listener survey at http://survey.greatdetectives.netGive us a call at 208-991-4783Follow us on Instagram at http://instagram.com/greatdetectivesFollow us on Twitter @radiodetectivesJoin us again tomorrow for another detective drama from the Golden Age of Radio.This show is part of the Spreaker Prime Network, if you are interested in advertising on this podcast, contact us at https://www.spreaker.com/show/4607052/advertisement
Todays Mystery:Friday and Romero search for a man who robs and beats up innocent citizens while impersonating a police officer.Original Radio Broadcast Date: July 14, 1949Originated from HollywoodStarred: Jack Webb as Sergeant Joe Friday, Barton Yarborough as Sergeant Ben Romero, Raymond Burr as Ed Backstrand, Chief of DetectivesSupport the show monthly at patreon.greatdetectives.netSupport the show on a one-time basis at http://support.greatdetectives.net.Mail a donation to: Adam Graham, PO Box 15913, Boise, Idaho 83715Take the listener survey at http://survey.greatdetectives.netGive us a call at 208-991-4783.Follow us on Instagram at http://instagram.com/greatdetectivesFollow us on Twitter @radiodetectivesJoin us again Monday for another detective drama from the Golden Age of Radio.This show is part of the Spreaker Prime Network, if you are interested in advertising on this podcast, contact us at https://www.spreaker.com/show/4607052/advertisement
Not unlike that of many of his CFO peers, Derrek Gafford's career path has been shaped in part by geography—specifically, by having its origins in a city that was at once home to a state college, the corporate headquarters of a marquee company, and a Big Four accounting office populated with new college grads. In Gafford's case, the city was Boise; the college, Boise State; the marquee company, grocery giant Albertsons; and the Big Four accounting house, Deloitte. “I had worked my way through Boise State in an Albertsons grocery store, which actually paid for a lot of my education,” explains Gafford, who upon graduating with an accounting degree would end up nabbing a job with Deloitte's Boise office. “Originally, the only job that I had ever really wanted was to work in finance at Albertsons,” he continues, “and guess what company became the first account that Deloitte assigned me to?” After about 2 years with Deloitte, Gafford joined Albertsons' internal audit staff, from which he eventually advanced to oversee the company's audit department while reporting directly to Albertsons' CFO. “As an internal auditor, I had traveled the country visiting stores and distribution centers, so I had gotten a feel for the various aspects of the business and how the company operated,” recalls Gafford. However, after 6 years with Albertsons, Gafford began to consider different finance leadership roles beyond Boise's city limits. “The way things were headed,” he remembers, “it seemed like I was going to be a lifelong leader of internal audit—which is not where I wanted to be. There was this small, privately held grocery company in Seattle that was looking for a CFO, and the CEO and I got along, so we packed up and headed north.” –Jack Sweeney
Host Emma Arnold's got Hey Boise newsletter editor Blake Hunter with her to dig into the week's news. They're talking $5 huskies, invasive mussels, and how neighbor pushback against ”Portland loos” feels awfully similar to a mayoral candidate's campaign strategy so far. Want some more Boise news? Head over to our Hey Boise newsletter, where you'll get a cheat-sheet to the city every weekday morning. Looking to advertise on City Cast Boise? Check out our options for podcast and newsletter ads at citycast.fm/advertise. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Finding real Mexican sweet bread in Boise can be a challenge, so Evelyn Avitia and Mia Maldonado are here to tell us why the drive to the 2C is worth it. They break down everything you need to know about this sweet treat and why it tastes way better in the fall. Plus, Mia clues us in to her favorite Mexican bakery in Nampa. What's your favorite spot for sampling pan dulce? Let us know by sending us a voicemail or text: 208-546-9485. Want some more Treasure Valley food recommendations? Head over to our Hey Boise newsletter. Interested in advertising with City Cast Boise? Find more info HERE. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Market Proof Marketing · Ep 303: Things We Never Need To Say In The Industry Ever AgainIn this episode, Kevin Oakley, is joined by Beth Russell and Julie Jarnagin! Kevin recently got back from a conference and shares his thoughts on the experience as well as the importance of understanding your audience. Together, they reflect on the uncomfortable challenge of change but agree that it's necessary and urge listeners to surround themselves with people who will be honest with you and genuinely help you through it. The team discusses things that never need to be said in the industry ever again!Story Time (11:24)Julie had a builder ask if video was “worth it?”It's Beth's birthday week and so she is reflecting over the change this last year.Kevin brings up things we never need to say in the industry ever again News (40:04)Will the Mortgage Rate Spread Narrow or Not? That is the Question (https://blog.firstam.com/economics/will-the-mortgage-rate-spread-narrow-or-not-that-is-the-question)1 in 10 Home Sellers Are Moving Because They're Being Called Back to the Office: Survey (https://www.redfin.com/news/moving-return-to-office-survey-2023/)Where Is the Housing Market Headed This Fall? (https://www.probuilder.com/where-housing-market-headed-fall)Higher mortgage rates continue to impact the housing markets (https://apple.news/AW-eEur1VTc-0uqCPW8w2UQ)Things we love / things we hate (53:31)Beth hates unpackingJulie is listening to a podcast called "The Dr. John Delony Show"Kevin is enjoying the “Compound and Friends” podcastQuestions? Comments? Email firstname.lastname@example.org or call 404-369-2595 and we'll address them on the next episode. More insights, discussions, and opportunities can be found at Do You Convert All Access or on the Market Proof Marketing Facebook group.Subscribe on iTunesFollow on SpotifyListen On StitcherA weekly new home marketing podcast for home builders and developers. Each week Kevin Oakley, Andrew Peek, Jackie Lipinski, Julie Jarnagin, and other team members from Do You Convert will break down the headlines, share best practices and stories from the front line, and perform a deep dive on a relevant marketing topic. We're here to help you – not to sell you!Transcript:KevinHi, I'm here. This is six calls into the day Kevin!JulieThat's a lot.KevinMy favorite kind of days. But I'm here. We're going to do it. And I guess feedback. Our producer, I think it was maybe just her feedback, but she likes spicy Kevin.BethSo I think we all love spicy. Kevin's spicy and like trolling. Kevin Oh, I live for it.KevinYeah, I remember the 10,000 hour thing. You school this on?JulieI think.KevinSo I just got exposed at this conference. That's about nothing other than learning. And the people are all totally different is again, that realization of like, I'm old because I care about things that my 20 year old self would have been like. Why does that have what does it matter? Why are we thinking about, you know, what is space made of like it's empty space, you moron, move on.KevinBut I'm here. I'm listening to this guy talk about the units that make up space and how that defines time and thinking. How does this apply to what we do? And I can make connections. And it's it's weird. Just I remember was like going it's it's this 10,000 hour thing of how do I translate that to someone who only has 100 hours in in a way that's meaningful because, you know, like I was trying to download our team about one of my takeaways and then I'm like, this won't mean anything to some people.KevinLike though they will actually think, why did Kevin waste his time going to California to listen and learn about this? And so any time you're sharing, you have to understand your audience and and where they are. But it's it gets harder and some ways it gets easier. This is why now remember why I wanted to talk to you about this Julia is it's it's somewhat easier to process through the stuff like on the back burner of your brain, but it's even harder.KevinLike I'm finding myself pausing more often, like I have a small seizure and it's because I'm it's not because I don't understand the material. It's thinking like, how do I reframe this or filter it for this person who's been in our industry for a month?JulieYeah.KevinYeah. That gets incrementally harder, I think, at least for me.BethI mean, it's hard. I just had a call this week where I was like, I how? What did I just say? Because it was one of those challenging situations of like, how is and that's exactly what's happening to me. It was like there was a stop in my brain of like trying to filter out what was going on in my head and what was coming out of my mouth in a way that would be digestible to the person on the other line.BethAnd it probably was to them. But to me I was like, No, that I need to get back on a rhythm.BethBut that's where the storytelling comes in and I think y'all are both great at that. Even when you don't realize that you're pulling in a story or an example or something. So I see that, you know. Kevin, if we're sitting in on a call and you're pulling from something, some example you've heard or a story, so I think that's what you're trying to attach, the two things you're trying to attach the concept to whatever rolodex of stories and examples are in there somewhere to connect them.KevinYeah. Here's here's the most recent example of this that I still am processing a little bit, is working with a rather I mean, a very large homebuilding organization who wants to create a new set of dashboards on a quarterly basis to give to their leadership team about marketing and online sales and how it's going and they showed an example of an old one that they've been doing internally.KevinI think some other people were helping them and it was like 45 pages and we rebuilt one after much thinking and work. And it's nine pages, I think, or sorry, it's 11 pages. It's 11 pages, but the first four pages are just an illustration of the proverbial funnel illustrating at the state level, individual market level, etc., how everything is working.KevinLike all of the important metrics, the conversion ratios and visually how they all connect and then as I'm thinking about the audience that they're going to give this to and, and this is a presentation format too, I think it's important, understand. So they're like the person who used to do this, they hated their life for that entire day because when I was there trying to stand up and talk, they went through all 45, 50 pages and watched everyone's eyes glaze over or start looking at their phone or, you know, they and we interpret that sometimes as how those people are.KevinSo rude. How could they not? But to me it was more like, actually, you should probably never get past these first five pages that are funnel analysis with this audience. If you get to page whatever, and it's a 14 way breakdown of how their Google ads are performing, something's wrong because it's not it's not the level that a CEO CEOs should be at ever.BethYeah, yeah. They need something to anchor on to. And with that visualization visual visually.JulieThis.KevinJust makes me feel so good about myself. I'm sorry, you're not supposed to.BethThe word with the funnel.KevinThere's many words.JulieLike.BethOh, well, it's something they can anchor to because if you just start going through numbers, if they're trying to connect, they're just going to grab a random stat number and get stuck on that and you're going to get into a weird hole of questions that you may not want to be into. So that gives them a good first thing to hang on to as you're taking them through the journey.KevinWell, okay, I'm going to try to keep my brain and then we'll be we will move on to the real show here in a second. But one thing I through my brain is this is a bad idea. Like as a as a builder partner, they're going to hate this idea that I'm presenting of making the funnel the main part and then being able to break out why afterwards or during Q&A.;KevinBut just really focusing on on funnel analysis. And I kind of saw a little bit like, oh, what if they're not comfortable hanging out at that level for 20 minutes? What the leadership team, there's some people are like, hurry up and get to the part where like I'm in every day and I understand and I know that I know more than they do about it.KevinAnd so I feel comfortable presenting and talking and looking through versus staying high level with high level individuals sometimes can be intimidating. And so there is a little bit of storytelling and example giving that had to give them the confidence of you don't even have to know all the answers. You have to understand the relationships. But that's part of like this will work if they start getting excited and talking to each other about how come appointments are converting to sales in the same way as they were last quarter?KevinOr why do we think so? So is this it's this weird thing of am I just shortcutting the shortcut or is this really the most important anyway, that's.BethI think it's a matter of is the presentation as important as the dialog that occurs around it? You know, like if the presentation doesn't invoke an interesting dialog that can lead to change, then what is the point of the presentation in the first place? It's just another hour of someone else's time. This is why I love the fact that I'm married to my husband and I know that he is listening right now, so shout out might, but he does like he briefs for a living.BethHe briefs very important people for a living and he is phenomenal at his ability to take a very complex subject matter and articulate it in a way that not only gets people engaged and provokes conversation, at least this is what I get. I don't really know what he does. So this is just my perception of this.KevinIf he told you, he'd have to kill you, Yeah.BethThis is my perception of it. But it's fascinating. Watch and watching him talk about the art around the briefing. And it's just like us. Like it's the art around coaching. It's the art around speaking to high level individuals. It's there is an art about it, and you have to tailor what it is that you do to your audience in order to provoke conversation that will lead to change and it's fascinating how many people actually do that wrong.KevinYeah, senior leadership's perspective usually has. Why is this person telling me numbers that I can look at and see numbers?JulieYeah.KevinYou don't need to be presenting like a first grader at show and tell.BethYeah. And it's like, how many times do we hate going to conferences where people are just reading slides? Yeah, like it's you. You've got, you got to make a conversation out of it. And just like in home and home, buying and selling and in marketing for our builders, we have to create emotion during the process because emotion is oftentimes a trigger to everything else that follows.BethAnd so like the ability to do that with high level, you got to you got to like all somewhere to start that conversation.KevinYeah. And not be afraid of a little bit of.BethConflict.KevinConflicts. Right. Fact a lot of times as a marketer, you're that's why I keep going back to the example of Survivor. Like players who win Survivor sometimes are creating conflict artificially when there wasn't one or the amplifying conflict in another party sometimes. I mean it's it's it is such a good like like chess and poker good analogy. Okay a little palate cleanser before I start the show.KevinSean Carpenter texted me those. Sorry, Sean, you didn't give me permission to share it, but you texted me, so you should know better. He said It blew my mind today, listening to the podcast that Jenn wanted to be a vet when she was younger. I feel like this should be a like Red and Jerry Seinfeld voice. And so she ended up marrying her husband and now she still gets to hear Barkin all day at work.KevinDog emoji, laughing face Emoji. All right, let's get started.BethAnother thing that we like more as we get older, come you.KevinYeah. All right. I mean, I want to stand up, you know? All right. Welcome to marketers marketing the podcast from the industry leaders. How do you convert where we talk about the current and future state of marketing and online sales for builders and developers across the globe? We're not here to sell you. We're here to help you and to try and elevate the conversation.KevinIs there a topic you'd like us to cover or a question you'd like us to answer? We'll do it. Simply send an email to show at. Do you convert? Dot com. Welcome to episode 303. I'm Kevin O'Kelly. And with me today is Beth Russell and Julie Jernigan.JulieAnd so.BethI.KevinWe don't have to yeah, we keep talking about this, but there's nothing else to say. We already said it, so we just go right into story time. All right, Julie.JenOkay. I have a fun conversation with the builder this week, so she said, we have this great binder, high quality makes videos for us, but they're really expensive. And she said, we do. You know, that's kind of our company branding video as we do some community videos. But she was like, I want to do all these house tours and this and that, but they're so expensive and I don't have room in the budget.JenSo we had a really fun conversation around video and not just your very produced high quality video. The number one thing I would say, but this doesn't work for them is you need to learn internally how to do some of this video yourself and start doing it. But in this specific case, they are maxed out like their team just got smaller.JenThey all shift roles. They're all they're just doggy paddling, you know, trying to keep up with everything. So then we took it down to the level of finding multiple vendors for different things. So just like you might have a professional pay the big money for the main photo on your homepage, you can do the same thing with video.JenYou can take somebody who is fresh out of college or whatever to do your video. But what it all came back to is even that takes legwork. Like you're going to have to know. You can't just say, I want to do more videos, so we're going to do video if you are maxed out and everything else. So this whole conversation, that video and finding somebody else and that it may take a few people and you're going to have to be really specific at first about what you want it for and what it needs to look like and who's going to edit it and how they're going to know where to go.JenAnd you're going to have to see if that in your priorities of the thing. So it was funny too, because the owner happened to be on this meeting and he was just sitting there quietly. So there's a whole conversation. So it was just interesting because in the end it's still all I love video. I wrote a whole book on content.JenI think everybody needs more and better content, but in the end you only have so many hours, so many man hours and so much budget, and it's whether this is the time for that or if that needs to be on your 2024 plan and how you're going to set all that up. So it was a fun conversation to work through with them.KevinYeah, again, it's different perspectives, different levels, different insights, different priorities. But I think I'll intersperse some things that I took away. But but one of the people who spoke at a conference I went to is the CEO of Shopify, and he talked about how they created a tool that shows the cost of every meeting. So when you invite people, every time you invite more people to your meeting, it shows incremental cost to the organization.KevinWhen you see, you know, $9,000 for a 30 minute meeting, you have to justify in a summary, if you call the meeting, why it's worth that much after it happens. Anyway, a little extreme, you could argue. But then he also started talking about how they every year they just delete all reoccurring meetings. He's going to start just randomly deleting Slack channels.KevinAnd the idea here is if it needs to happen, it'll start again. But if not, you're just keeping things. And so just that idea of revisiting on a regular basis, why am I doing this thing? Could be video, could be Google ads, it could be anything. Why am I doing it? This is the reason that I started. So the reason why I should continue to.KevinI need to take a different spend. Should I be doing this at all? That whole, you know, stop doing list is as important as the to do list.JenWell, and on that level, it's really interesting because she has been there a while, but somebody else has been cut in the marketing director role and that person shifting out. So she's just adopting and she put that person was great at her job. Amazing. But it's somebody walking into something that's already existing. And so I think that's going to be a big job for her, is then figuring out what how.KevinThat's more fun. Let's just talk.JulieAbout that main event.KevinShould she go and start making changes quickly? What what would you both tell someone who's dropped in that position of like taking over for someone who's done a great job but is is no longer in that role?BethI think I mean, having just left somewhere and someone that I, I knew and worked with kind of walk into my position slightly, I think it's really interesting where it's kind of like a marriage of both where, you know, you want to go fast in terms of making your name and learn and get your hands dirty. But you don't want to make too many changes that are going to rock the boat because you might not know enough yet and go in the complete opposite direction.BethSo I think it takes that time, like Julie said, like taking that time to walk through the options and the realities of what is actually available when it came to video and what was realistic. Okay, I see a problem here. I see something that I could change. But at the end of the day, capacity wise, investment wise like this doesn't need to change right now.BethI can do this later. It's not like a necessity for me to go in and just like rip everything to shreds. Essentially. This is me being dramatic.KevinBut yeah, joining me. Other thoughts?JenYeah. No, I agree that there's definitely a time period for keeping it as is and seeing how things work and really not making too many dramatic changes. Right when you walk in unless she's she's been in a role in the department so there are probably think she's familiar with enough the brand new thing she's taking over. Yeah I think it's worth some observation time before making any huge changes which I don't think she is.JulieYeah. Listening to this.KevinThe first thing I always would tell someone is don't change anything for until you are certain you know what the issues are. And what I mean by that, one of the reasons you don't change anything is because it doesn't require any of your cognitive load. If you're maintaining it's a lot easier to maintain than it is to create or destroy.KevinMaybe it's easier to destroy than anything. But that's I know I get off topic, but you're just letting things flow and and observing because one of the things you have to understand quickly is that the scoreboard is not the only scoreboard. So there might be some internal scoreboard or dashboard or whatever that says leads are up, good sales are up, good.KevinBut it all depends on the person you're working for, and it's a combination of that scoreboard and that person's perspective of everything. I've worked for people as a marketing director who have said, you know, like, we don't need more leads. I don't want you doing anything to create more leads. Leads aren't our problem. Go solve this other thing.KevinAnd I'm like, I'm new here. But when they hired me, they told me my job was to create leads. So that's the risk, is you don't have street credibility for that position even if you've been in that organization. Everyone's looking to try to figure out, did they earn this title? Did they just get this title because other person laughs, What's going on?KevinAnd so you still need to do an analysis of both scoreboards and look for the easy win opportunities that cause the least disruption for others. Because that's how you prove value is. I just made everyone's life better and you had to do nothing different. Do that for as long as you can before you have to start getting in the middle of everything else.KevinSometimes you don't get lucky and like the thing that has to be blown up is the fact that I'm I'm laughing. As I say this, it's only been true a couple of times. You're like, We just have to fire all the salespeople and start over. And I can show you mathematically and in the CRM why that's true, that would be a really hard place to start, but that sometimes that is the case.KevinBut if not for as long as possible, get the easy wins that have big impact on other people's roles. All right, Beth, what do you got?BethWell, this week was my birthday week.KevinOh, happy birthday.JulieThanks.BethI'm doing all the sound effects today.JulieThis is great.JenYou should have worn your tiara today.BethI should have worn my tiara on my sash. That would. Except it ripped out my hair, which was not a pleasant experience. It's super pretty, though, so I really should have worn it. That would have been great. But yeah, I'm not typically one to reflect on my previous year. I'm just like, Oh, you know, another year, I'm another year older.BethIt's fine. But this year I was kind of it was somewhat unavoidable because it was on my birthday last year that it became abundantly clear that all the goals that I was working towards and the goals that I had set for myself in my professional career were not going to happen. I was I was not going to achieve them at my current place of work.BethAnd this realization was dramatically catastrophic to me, and it forced me to take off blinders that I didn't even know existed. And it forced me into a period of serious reflection in my life. That period that that lasted from probably anywhere between four and six months, where obviously a lot of changes happened because now I am here. But it's interesting because I was in the mindset at that time before all of this happened that no matter what, I was going to stay on this path, I had my goal, I was going to achieve it, and I had already given so much of myself in order to achieve what I had achieved that the idea ofBethleaving that was so incredibly uncomfortable to me that I had basically avoided any thought of change.JulieYes, fully.BethLike those blinders were were up. But now I was in it like I was forced into a stage where I had to be comfortable in the uncomfortable. And for me there was nothing more uncomfortable than the thought of leaving some place I loved and that I had dedicated my time to. And that had brought me so much joy.BethAnd I share this not just because, like for whatever reason, just to share it. I think it's because No, I know it's because that at one point in all of our lives, we we come to that place or to that crossroad where we have to get comfortable in the uncomfortable, whether it's in our personal life or our professional life.BethWe are at one point in our life going to come across something where we are forced to make a decision that we we never thought that we would make. And it is so incredibly uncomfortable for us. But the reality of it is that it's only through doing that are you able to make a change for the better. And what I learned during that period of my life was that change is okay and that it's important to not go through that alone.BethI had I had to make that decision a very personal and selfish decision. I had to make that and come to that on my own. But I leaned on the people around me that supported me and not just the people that were going to nod my head and nod their head and agree with me or go into a period of self-pity with me or like crawl into that ditch with me.BethBut people that were going to force me to want better for myself and forced me into change and and forced me to ask myself questions that I had I had been previously avoiding because they were so invested in my success and they wanted something better for me. So in saying that, I mean, you don't have to do it alone.BethLean on the people around you, find people that will challenge you and support you, find good mentors.JulieAnd.BethJust make that next change because I think this last year has been incredibly fulfilling for me. Incredibly, incredibly challenging. And I if you would have asked me this on my birthday last year about where I would be in my professional career, I don't think I would I would answer that. I'm a marketing coach. A do.JulieRight.BethAnd it's been fun and exciting. And I'm so happy. I'm so happy that I'm here.KevinWell, we are happy that you are here, but I skating part things that make me feel strange or uncomfortable, like self celebrating ourselves always makes you uncomfortable. Same thing. I mean, I remember the first time, not the first time. It was. It was the third year that Mike Lyon was like, Hey, Kevin, I think there's this thing and I think you could come work with me.KevinAnd I was like, at the time I was 32 years old, I was running to homebuilding divisions for NPR. I had stock options that were worth millions of dollars. And Mike's pitch was, take a 70% pay cut and come work with me and we'll see what happens.JulieAnd I was like.JenI have.KevinFour. I have four kids. My my wife just gave birth to our fourth. What? None of this makes sense. But again, I'm going to keep doing this for a while probably. But this conference that I went to, one of the speakers is the CEO and founder of, I think the second most profitable options trading firm of all time.KevinAnd she showed the slide like if you gave her $100 back in the eighties, you would have $3 million. Now, that's how much money her company has made for herself and her employees. And so now she started this nonprofit specifically trying to teach women how to play poker, because her argument is that women need to learn the skill sets of poker.KevinAnd to her, one of the most important skill sets is knowing that it's okay to take risk. That risk is mandatory. You you have your hand of cards. You've got to make a calculation and decision of what should I do or not do. But also sometimes you if you just fold every hand, you're never going to win. And her take as a woman was just that women are never taught to take risk.KevinAnd even in my own life, like I'm I'm definitely the Yeah, I'll just stay out of poker like just play super conservative, get that pot as big as you can and just like, hope you win by causing everyone else to die of boredom and just, like, irrationally go all in because they're just sick of sitting there like, that's that strategy.KevinBut so when I hear you talking about that story, I just to what I what I translate it to is part of it is chasing the goal that you had. And the other part is just saying like, that's too risky. But now on the other side, do you feel like it was as risky as it felt?BethNo, not at all. And I think, like I battle with the word risk slightly because I don't know if I necessarily felt like it was risky. I think perhaps a little bit it was like, okay, I just built all this. Like, am I willing to risk, like, completely altering everything I just worked for for seven years? Right? So I guess the other is there is a little bit of risk in there involved, but ultimately it came down to compromise.BethIt came down to how much of myself am I willing to compromise and what am I even living out? One of my mentors is bold. Eutelsat is also a very good friend of mine and he was the one that was like sat me down and he was like, What is your superpower and are you living it out right now?BethAnd we had like a two hour conversation actually at some after hours about what that meant. And like he just started ripping out those blinders that I had. And I think it was just that I had compromised a little bit of what my superpower was in order to fit the box of what other people needed.JulieAnd yeah.BethAnd it was it felt really good.KevinOn the psychiatrist psychiatrist couch together. So this is.JulieGreat.KevinI know you don't like the word risk, but what I think is probably happening is the fear of not getting to where you wanted to was causing you to put the blinders on in the first place.BethOh, yeah.KevinIf if if I don't put the blinders on, I'm not going to attain the level or position that I want to get to. And that's all I'm trying to say is, at the end of the day, the biggest risk that the speaker and I go back and talk to other people are look at my own life. It's like the biggest risk would have been not doing anything.KevinYeah, that's I always say that's the don't you're trying to sell someone the donut hole the cut out like not an actual small little piece of a donut but your sound the thing that doesn't exist and saying that's the problem so that's, that's the hard part about it. But taking risk is okay. And I, like any of my friends, personal friends who've been like, Hey, I'm thinking about starting my own business or doing my own thing.KevinMy answer is always do it always, because the risk is not like you're not going to die if your business dies, but you will know whether you actually want to run a business or not. You're capable or not going to do it. If death is not on the other side, it's worth trying. Now that also, like as an efficiency focused organization, which I would consider, do you convert like one of the ways I explain to people is we are an efficiency focused digital marketing organization trying to help builders get the best quality traffic for the least amount of money.KevinSo one of the things in there is like a lot of what we do is working and we might not be taking the risk for someone's money individually. So like builder A of 80 or a builder number one of 80, we might, based upon their resources and availability, might not be doing a lot of testing with them. But across all 80 builders, there's always different tests being done and that's a it's analysis of risk.KevinAnd I feel like I should just write a whole blog on maybe a series on risk because it's not talked about enough. And as a manager, we know we have to manage people. We know you have to manage a budget. Managing risk is not talked about enough or understood clearly enough and it's really, really important. It blindsides people more than missing a budget.BethYeah, I would agree. It really takes us even for this.JulieFascinating Hey online sales specialist, your D convert coach Jen Barkan here. Are you looking for guidance, structure and proven methods to help you set more appointments and create more sales than join online sales coach Jesse Suggs and myself, we are offering an intense two day virtual training experience, followed by eight weeks of training and coaching through our online sales academy.JulieThis fall. Jesse and I have been in your shoes and we teach from our direct experience and years of coaching online sales specialists just like you. This will be hands on and real world. No theory here if you're interested, don't miss this incredible opportunity to reserve your spot today by visiting d convert dot.com.KevinOC first story time. Just go the way Olivia reminded me that I want to talk about like things that we just keep repeating in our industry. And it's not really the thing. It's the it's the well, it is partly the thing. So one example would be and these are all things, by the way, I have said too, so it's not casting stones with glass houses, but I remember the very first presentation I gave at the Builders show and it PCBs.KevinI talked about a backpack on Amazon having more content than a home builders quick movement, home. That was 14, 15 years ago.KevinSo let's just get more creative. And this again, this is for for me as as well as everyone else. Let's get more creative with our examples. If we've heard an example 30 times in the last ten years as a as a presenter or someone making content, I think we should all push ourselves to keep looking for more and different examples.KevinAnd I'll give you one of mine that I've pushed, you know, so I've talked about pre-sell without fail and wrote the book and given all kinds of presentations and done it. And yet the audience and this is we keep repeating the same thing because we're like the audience hasn't heard enough and we know repetition is important. So we say it again and again, again.KevinBut I think my challenge is let's get more creative to try to find out if it's not just us. The presenter that's repeating the same thing. People have heard, but not actually finding a way to help them solve the problem. And that's why I use stories analogies is because my hope is that the person I'm telling that to can retell the story and get a similar outcome or help people's opinions or mindset change.KevinSo a lot of times builders on their on their home site maps or community descriptions are talking about, you know, faces one through 17 and all of them are on the map and they're on phase one, but they're showing everything. And so for me, the example is, you know, Apple just came out with the iPhone 15 and the 15 pro and someone tweeted immediately after, like, I'm on my way to Apple.com to order my iPhone 14.KevinCan't wait for it. It's like, no one does that. As soon as the phones announce, the only people buying the 14 are price conscious folks who probably can't afford or wouldn't buy a 15 anyway. But it would be as insane for Apple to put on their website iPhone. I mean, I can do it now. I can. I can project into the future the iPhone 17 coming September of 2025.KevinYou would never, ever, ever see that on Apple's website because you can't buy it yet. And certainly in the process of launch in neighborhood there's there's a period where you're going to put that community out there and you can't buy it because you're building that list. But Apple knows how long they need to build their list, and it's about 2 to 3 weeks from the time we say it's here to the time that you can go online and order it.KevinThey figure it out through probably millions of dollars and out. And, you know, tons of research that that's the only window they need to have. So you got to figure out what your window is. But you don't need to communicate years or decades in advance. You're going to have Homesite 2312 available at some point. So just let's get creative because if if the industry isn't solving that problem, we can go back to content around the backpack if we have to.KevinBut the more interesting question that I think our whole industry needs to start thinking about is what are the barriers? Because the barrier is not anyone I talked to. I don't know if you two are talking to people, but I haven't heard anyone say no, we've got enough content on all of our stuff, like I'm good with it or pictures are all awesome, our descriptions are great.KevinNo one's happy with the content they have. So what's the real problem? And we keep pointing the finger. This is going to get me excited. We keep pointing the finger at marketers and. If you're interacting with marketers on a regular basis, you know, the problem is not that the marketer doesn't want the content. Maybe, and this is why I'm so big on high mark as a potential solution for this in our industry.KevinYou know, this is it. Them and Mark and Beth are doing a presentation at the summit Higher understands that the reason we have crappy content is because people who aren't marketers are constantly changing the product with your regard and no care as to whether we have content just made content. There's just like this little hidden space in every home building company where for people who have no connection to consumers or marketers are coming up with all these new things and changing stuff all the time and like, yeah, just figure it out.KevinJust figure it out. Like that's the freaking problem. And using it addressed not how to hire a photographer. Did you know that you can get renderings that like for it's such baloney. That's not the problem. The problem is that there's these other morons changing things too often that no one's asking to be changed. Like if they're How often?KevinHow often do people redesign cars?JulieRight.KevinIt's usually on like a three year, 3 to 5 year thing, and there's little micro changes in between. They don't and they don't have 45 different cars available at Toyota to go buy for each. Kevin And then we're going to show Toyota's car car selection tool and they're like, this is amazing. Look what it can.JulieDo because there's only seven different.KevinCar types.JulieYeah.BethThere's like five is from.KevinThat's why when NPR bought Heartland and they we had 45 different floor plans and they said no, you can have 12. And after the initial freak out of that's not possible. We'll never sell another house again. Everyone's going to want something we don't have. I got so freaking excited as a marketer because thinking of of, okay, I'm going to defend my budget.KevinI'm going to keep that same amount of money. But now I can develop content around 12 floor plans instead of 45.JulieYeah.KevinIt was like Angels started singing. It was, This is going to be the most incredible thing ever.JulieMm hmm. Yeah. So look for.KevinLook for what's causing things not to change. Not just telling the people that it needs to change. Please.JenI literally just had this conversation with a builder yesterday, and you were not on the call because I asked them what is because they're overloaded? What is eating up your time right now? And that's what that's what it was. That's what I want is this.KevinFor people in a room somewhere making changes without talking to anyone?JenYes. And all they're doing is updating floorplans and rendering and all this. So it's just funny that you say that because I literally just had this conversation with someone yesterday.JulieYeah, well, and.KevinI mean, at Idol, they have collaborative teams that work on such things at Style Craft, where you were both they have collaborative teams. Yeah. Cross department teams that work on this things. Yeah. But so many builders I interact with, I'm like, who does this stuff?BethBut it was still a problem like.KevinSteve in accounting.JulieCommercial. Oh, okay.KevinSteph, thanks.BethThanks, Steve. No, I mean, it would still problem though. I mean, we had a huge group of us coming across, like you said, from all different departments coming together to make these decisions with the changes that were still happening so often that I had to just eventually put my foot down and saying, I'm not changing it until this is an issue or I have this many changes or whatever, or if we're making this many changes, I need this to be the process that we follow because there's just no way that as a singular person or in our case, two people, that we're going to be able to maintain content across 40 communities with 40 differentBethfloor plans, with 40 different variations of things happening, like that's just that is outside of the realm of reality.KevinAnd there are answers coming. And here now to do it better and differently, one from other industries, two from products like High arc. And this is I mean, again, if you're listening and you're coming to the summit, you're going to hear it. It's not like you're going to not hear this talk.JulieBut yeah.KevinThere are ways to get what we want and need.BethAnd there's ways to go about the changes better, which again, I don't want to say too much about because we'll talk about at the summit and I have a blog post that I finally wrote a blog post and Julie edited it, shout out Julie. That is about different ways that we can go about making changes that are planning, planning things out.BethBecause I don't think that as an industry we're doing it the most efficient way.KevinNo, no, not at all. All right. First up from the news, will the mortgage rate spread narrow or not? That is the question from first imdb.com And this. Remember, I went on a tirade about like if you're a marketer trying to ignore what interest rates are and how they are determined, all that stuff, it's time to go to school.KevinBy the way, that was my actual story. I got distracted. I didn't share my story time, but one of the notes that I wrote down was Bill Gurley, a prominent investor venture capitalist, said that the idea of professional research no longer exists for most people, meaning when your teacher in school assigns you to do a research project on, you know, the Pyramids of Giza, you either lie and makes things up or today use GPT, or you go and read books, watch documentaries like you can see in this information.KevinAnd yet the concept of professional research done outside of work hours is like, Are they paying me for news? I mean, I don't know, maybe you just want to find the answer or learn me because it's going to make you better, which will eventually pay you more because you are better. But it kind of goes along with this is a continuation of that rant from previous episode.KevinAnyway, so this is an example of me. So I, I see this article posted in my first reaction as I've spent 200 hours learning about mortgage rates and how that determined all the rest. I don't need to read anymore on this topic, but what the heck, I'm stuck for 2 hours on a plane that's not taking off. So I'm going to read the article.KevinAnd essentially what what the author argues is that one of the things that we're not thinking about that will keep rates higher for longer is the fact that rates being higher, where most people think they're like everyone's dating the rate, right? Everyone's waiting to refi. And one of the things that causes rates to be held higher is the belief that people are going to pay off their loans early.KevinSo if I'm buying a mortgage backed security that's supposed to be full of loans that are 7% for 30 years, what's the likelihood that those loans go for the entire 30 year period and aren't paid off early if rates go back down to five? Right. All those are gone. And so that risk of loans being that's a negative thing for an investor to have loans paid off early.KevinAnd because of that negativity, there's extra costs being that then raise the rate because of that thing. Like I had no idea that that was part of the calculation, but it makes sense now. The inverse is also true on a coaching call this morning and the builder said, Yeah, you know what? We've noticed that buy downs are becoming less expensive for builders or this builder in particular.KevinWhy would that be? Because the inverse is also true. That's why I love learning stuff. It gets me so frickin excited. The inverse is true. Why would a buy down be less expensive? Because what's the likelihood that, yes, I am going to charge the builder money to buy down the rate? What if now that customer is going to get a 4.75% loan?KevinWhat's the likelihood that they will carry that loan through to maturity? It's higher because if rates go down to six or five, they're not redoing that loan. So they were saying, you know, it still has three and a half, 4%, but it's used to be seven to buy that down. So it just never pays to continue doing professional research because it's just always insightful to me when I learn something new.KevinIt makes me excited.JenAnd this article is worth reading because I do not get quite as excited as Kevin on all of this. But this one, when I read it, it was it did lay things out in a way that it was like little light bulbs went off and helped explain it. So if you're also struggling to make sense of all of this, this is a good one to go and.JulieClick on and.KevinRead again because people will see something or say, Kevin's, you know, just a mad old man. No, I'm not saying you have to understand it. I'm saying stop trying to not understand it. That's all I'm saying. Like, keep trying to understand it. Don't just say huh.BethFind new ways to explain what's happening in the industry other than the backpack.KevinYeah. All right. From Redfin.com, one in ten home sellers who found this one, by the way, they deserve a price because this one love this one. One in ten home sellers are moving because they're being called back to the office. We haven't found this article.BethI'm looking, but.JulieI don't see I'm.KevinGoing to default to.JulieFriend. Thank you.KevinOkay. Good job, Olivia.KevinReturn to office. Mandates are forcing some people to choose between selling their home at a loss or losing their job and turn it into a rental. Potentially. Roughly 20% of surveyed sellers say they're moving due to safety, crime concerns, a desire to live somewhere more aligned with their social views and or lower taxes. But 10% said they're moving because they have to go back to the office.BethI mean, it goes back to I think it's an interesting, like granular data point of like because they specifically because they have to go back to the office, because we think about like relocation and things like that. And it says, oh, my work is moving me. But in this case, like, no, your work is forcing you to actually come in and now you need to live closer.BethIt kind of Did you see the Post from the New York Post article about the project by EIA in Montgomery County, Maryland? It almost makes me think about that a little bit because like they are doing a project that allows for lower income people to instead of doing that, the 10% or whatever, they increase it to 40% of lower income in this building.BethAnd they are trying to increase the amount of available housing in a safe area that allows for us a closer commute. And the example in the article of someone who lives in that building is an individual who's like, I think she was like a nurse or a educator or something like that. I'm sorry, I can't remember what my head but she because this became available to her, her commute cut down from a 45 minute commute to a ten minute commute.BethNow, for a little bit of perspective, even 45 minutes in the Montgomery County area. So anywhere around the greater D.C., Baltimore metropolitan area, 45 minutes is a win. So for her to be able to have 10 minutes of a win is is gigantic. And so these people that are are now trying to get to work and having to go to work every day and they're just trying to get closer.BethThey need to get closer. And it goes back to their need to move because their life is requiring them to.KevinYeah, remember, that's the fifth of the five days displacement that causes people to need to find a new home. And we're seeing this you know, we work with builders, I think, in 40 different states. And remember, if it's 10% in the survey that means in some markets it's lower. And in some markets it's higher. And one of the places they reference here is Boise, where two people work for the same employer.KevinIt sounds like to me it's Facebook or Meetup, but they're being told that they both have to come to the office three days a week or lose their jobs. They're probably gonna have to take $100,000 loss in their home in Boise And the home that they are going to end up buying in Seattle is going to be much smaller.KevinSo you just think about those markets. San Antonio is a relocation for remote work, heavy market. Boise was a big market for that. Northern Colorado. Some of these start to make sense. Now the question is, is this going to be it's going to be positive, you would think, for Seattle. And just because there's there's not still a lot available in Seattle from the from the used home market so for for prices in the market so people are being forced to move back to I think it's going to continue to push them higher.KevinYou know super interesting article. Thanks, Olivia, for finding that one. And you did this one I think from CNBC econ. Higher mortgage rates continue to impact the housing markets. Danielle hill, realtor.com chief economist this was you right, that found this one?BethNo, this is shout out, Becca.KevinOh, okay. Okay. Good job.JulieHere.KevinBut this is a video, so I don't know how to go into more of it.BethWe'll have to just embed the video into the show notes now.KevinWell, time out. We'll just pick a different article. So it's like we can't put articles that are videos and. Sorry, that was. I should have thought that one. But we got to we got to be able to talk about it. All right. Next up from Pro Builder AECOM, where is the housing market headed this fall with buyers and sellers glued to the sidelines of a high priced undersupplied housing market, experts weigh in on what's to come.KevinWhat's to come?BethMore of the same.JenThat's one thing. Those were kind of wild. You said, I don't think it's going to get any better, but I don't think it's going to get any worse because it can't get any worse. Number one, don't jinx us. Number two, we've seen it get worse. You know, we've seen it worse than this. So I was shocked by that vote.JenI thought that was a little.KevinYeah. And promote our links to Realtor.com or the full article is we'll put that link in the show notes. But remember, they're talking about the housing market, meaning residential in its entirety. So when they say I can't get much worse, they're talking about existing home, the number of existing home transactions that are occurring. Remember, prices are not bad.KevinIt's the number of homes that are are transacting that he's talking about being so bad.BethAnd guess who's still the bright spot?KevinYeah, I mean, what's the saying? I don't know if we can, but, like, tell this person in a room full of short people.JulieBecause.KevinLike, Yeah, I mean that's the thing that kind of it does affect my mental health a little bit. When people say, again, I'm talking to people not from our industry directly all the time who are like, Oh builders, man, this is just got to be like the best thing ever for them. They're loving now. There are we do have to, to working with who are having their best months ever.KevinYes but there are also a lot of builders who are, you know, eking by hitting their sales goals. Profitability is okay. But again, they're like, this is this is just infinitely harder than it used to be. And then going into the fourth quarter, it's like, oh, man, I really I'm not excited for what we're going to have to ride through here.KevinSo, yes, it is a bright spot in terms of, I would say availability of housing. Yes. So if you if you wiped builders off the map, there were no builders. The whole housing market would be you know, I think the kids say left.JulieLike.KevinSo homebuilders serve a really important purpose and we are there. But the costs of doing business for builders are not improving as fast as we wish they would, which means affordability is still a challenge.BethYeah, and while it's true that it remains market dependent, I think the builder to builder, it's also really interesting to watch. I don't know if you all have seen this, but we had a brief conversation of the doers versus the thinkers. And then there's the people that can think and do simultaneously, which is a magical little unicorn that everyone should have within their organization.BethBut it's a matter of like there's people that are in markets that are still doing well, but they just haven't gotten it right from the builder side because they're not sure how to take advantage of a market where they all where they are the tallest person in the room. They're not using the right messaging. They're not using the right messaging at the right phase of the funnel.BethThey're not getting creative in what they're doing. They're just riding the coattails. And then something blips and they're like.JulieOh.BethWhat do I do with my hands? And it's interesting.KevinYeah, And I love how it ends, actually. This is who is still buying homes today. The answer is you have to purchase a home. And I think Rob Hahn, who's another one of our speakers at this year's event, I think he coined the term the four D's, which were diamonds, death, diapers and divorce. I think we added the fifth D, which is displacement, which kind of talked about what the article terms of having to move back to a different physical location or move physical location.KevinThat's the only reason people are buying. It's not because that there's a red tag clearance sale going on. They're already in the market and that will potentially steal market share if you do that, right. But there's a lot more people being created by that activity. All right. Our favorites. Things we love and things we hate. Let's just rename it that next time.KevinOlivia. Things we love and things we hate. Anything is up for grabs. What do we got today?BethI hate unpacking.KevinAll unpacking. Okay, tell us more about that. Why do you have so much stuff that's you.JulieThat's a.BethGreat question. And we keep purging. Julie and I were just talking about how like one of the beauties of moving is the ability to like it's a forced spring cleaning. And so you, you get to purge like I am still throwing things away left and right. And we did that prior to moving. But you know, it is just can I just can like all the boxes magically just, you know, like Mary Poppins into their place because that would make my life really look a lot easier right now.KevinYeah. It's I love talking about it because we went we're now done with it. Yeah. The whole mental connection that you have to your house and the things that you have to start thinking about again that you stop thinking about at your old house. There's all this emotional energy that's spent, intellectual energy that's spent for moving. What's the physical?JulieYeah, yeah.KevinBlood sucking leech like reality of unpacks in cardboard boxes. Yeah, It's not a good combination. Okay, that's good. You can hate that. Julie, What about you?JenWell, this might be embarrassing. I don't know, but I've been listening to a new podcast, and it's John Delaney, and it's like the old school, like somebody calling in and asking for advice, like, Oh, my God. Like, yep. Or he's it's. That's what we should do, counselor. Guys, I'm like, I'm fast. It like I'm obsessed with it right now.KevinThat's what we should.JenI don't know if it's cringing or where people really. Why don't you listen? But I know I love in it I'm into it right now.BethMillennial need watched or listened to Love Line like let's be racy.JenIt's not racy like that. It is, but it's like just any kind of it gets like a little mini counseling session. And so that has what I've been listening to lately.KevinThere is a gentleman I can't remember his name, but it was on Redwood Studios, AM talk radio, and every day he would take like 3 hours of calls and he would play solitaire. So you'd hear him shuffle the card. Sometimes, like I've always answering people's questions, but every like nine out of ten answers or get a lawyer, he would call them questions and he would ask them on a question.KevinQuestions like, You know what need you need to do is get a lawyer. And this guy made a career off of telling people to go get legal advice. Now, is is.JenThis once more, go get a counselor like you need trauma counseling.KevinSo this is like real life crime podcasts. This is I haven't killed anyone yet, but I'm thinking about it.BethYeah, Yeah Yeah. Is it like a little touch of a Reddit thread? Am I the ahole?JenBecause, like, sometimes that's all I hold.JulieMm hmm. Yeah.KevinMine is a podcast recommendation that I got from another podcast that I listen to called a compound in France. It's a stock market, one most of you shouldn't probably listen to it, but acquired is the name of it and they are, let's see, 3 hours, 4 hours, two hour. They're really long podcasts on a single company kind of giving there.KevinWhat they do is they go and they read 8 to 10 books on a topic that interview people and then it looks like twice a month they do these three hour summaries in audio format. And it's I mean, it's it's all LVMH, the NFL, Nintendo.BethQualcomm, Marvel one or the.KevinAmazon, of course, Altimeter, Sony, Peloton, FDX, Standard Oil like that's a really old company. Sometimes they do multiple parts, but it's one of those podcasts where you don't. I don't feel compelled to listen to all of them. But if there is a company that I really think does something well or I use like my own life and I'm curious about the background, it's just a really great it's like in between an audio book and a podcast, typical podcast in length and complexity.JulieOh, that's fun.BethI'm already Google, right?KevinYeah, that'll do it. Wait. Oh, you have another one, Beth, you want to complain about? Can you have something positive?BethYeah. Seriously, I just love the. I hate this way. No, the positive of our houses. I'm so like, by the time you guys see me next, next week, Monday, I should be in my office, in my new house, and I'm obsessed with the color that we painted it. And it was a little bit of a risk going back to that word, Kevin But it's a ripe olive by Sherwin-Williams.BethIt's a deep, moody green, and my crown molding is painted it. My doors are painted it, my walls are painted it, my panel, it is the whole office is this deep, moody, green, and it has a vibe. And I'm.JulieObsessed.KevinSo you like cozy, like cave? Kind of like it's not going to be dark. No cream.BethBut yeah, it has. And it has has. The ceiling is white and the floors are white. Okay, So like, there's a balance, but I don't know, I just it gives that feeling of like an all leather bag.JulieYeah.KevinIt looks like you should be signing the docket. Like the Declaration of Independence. Yeah.BethBasically, I need a portrait of George Washington.JulieOn the wall.KevinNicole, I learned something from my son, Hayden. He's in fifth grade, so he has to do a report on a president.JulieMm hmm.KevinAnd you could be lying to me, so don't. Don't at me. He's. And he got second choice, I think, to pick any president you want to do. And he picked Grover Cleveland.JulieOkay, Now.KevinEither one of you know any interesting information about Grover Cleveland?JulieNo. Nope.KevinNo. Apparently, allegedly he is the only president to serve two terms that were nonconsecutive.JulieMm.KevinHe was both the 22nd and the 24th president of the United States and had an incredible mustache.BethHe did that. That is true.KevinOh, all right. That's actually it. We're done now. The show is over. Have a good week. We'll see you next time.JulieBye bye. The post Ep 303: Things We Never Need To Say In The Industry Ever Again appeared first on Online Sales and Marketing for Home Builders - DYC.
Today's Mystery:A friend of Mr. Chameleon's is murdered while dressed in costume as him.Original Radio Broadcast Date: November 3, 1948Originated in: New York CityStarred: Karl Swenson as Mister ChameleonSupport the show monthly at patreon.greatdetectives.netSupport the show on a one-time basis at http://support.greatdetectives.net.Mail a donation to: Adam Graham, PO Box 15913, Boise, Idaho 83715Take the listener survey at http://survey.greatdetectives.netGive us a call at 208-991-4783Follow us on Instagram at http://instagram.com/greatdetectivesFollow us on Twitter @radiodetectivesJoin us again tomorrow for another detective drama from the Golden Age of Radio.This show is part of the Spreaker Prime Network, if you are interested in advertising on this podcast, contact us at https://www.spreaker.com/show/4607052/advertisement
San Diego State took an L on the road at Oregon State last weekend and the guys were in attendance to see it. This Friday the Aztecs host the Boise State Broncos to open up Mountain West conference play. It's not a must win game, but the guys discuss how big it is and how the Aztecs may be turning the corner.
Today's Mystery:Steve goes to Dakar in West Africa in search of a supposedly dead Nazi sea captain who was a key part of the Fuhrer's escape plan.Original Radio Broadcast Date: November 3, 1951Originated in HollywoodStars: Brian Donlevy as Steve Mitchell, Herb Butterfield as the CommissionerSupport the show monthly at patreon.greatdetectives.netSupport the show on a one-time basis at http://support.greatdetectives.net.'Mail a donation to: Adam Graham, PO Box 15913, Boise, Idaho 83715Take the listener survey at http://survey.greatdetectives.netGive us a call at 208-991-4783Follow us on Instagram at http://instagram.com/greatdetectivesFollow us on Twitter @radiodetectivesJoin us again tomorrow for another detective drama from the Golden Age of Radio.'This show is part of the Spreaker Prime Network, if you are interested in advertising on this podcast, contact us at https://www.spreaker.com/show/4607052/advertisement
For today's Wednesday episode, Robert and Tim dive start by asking the question: "if money isn't an issue in your church plant, what would you like to see happen?" They hone in on the idea of people capital: how to form your leadership team and what to consider once you start getting a team populated. Robert tells some of his story with his Boise church plant, encourages listeners to have a team of people around them who are different than they are, who will keep them accountable, and challenges with the questions: "who is God sending you to, and who is God sending you with?" Find more from the Church Planter Podcast on instagram @churchplanterpodcast, on Facebook at Church Planter Podcast, and twitter @cPlanterPodcast. Listen in! Mentioned in this episode:This episode was brought to you by ChurchWebBuilder. If you've been meaning to scrap your terrible Wordpress church website, or you just need to actually sit down and make your church plants' website, let this be a sign to you. With CWB's library of church specific templates and integrations, and the included all-in-one marketing and communication platform, a beautiful new website is literally sitting there, waiting for you to take it. Go to www.churchwebbuilder.io and use the code PLANTER at checkout. You'll get 50% off your entire first year.
What does it mean to be a good person? And do we agree on that definition? Natalie was invited to be a guest on the national Girl Powerful Podcast. This Boise-based podcast is about having raw and vulnerable conversations with powerful and empowered women. Natalie in turn requested to make it a dual-release so we could also learn about one its founders, Tedi Serge. Together they discuss some of the missions behind their projects. They spill the tea on why Natalie started social media and why she decided to move from an anonymous page to sharing her personal story. They break down the idea of living apart from culturally imposed concepts and labels, and leading an inquisitive life. They explore what it means to be a good and kind person and how often we should revisit what that means. They chat about what patriotism means to different people and their individual plans for moving into the election year. They end with a discussion on what it means to be a good friend and building a tribe of safe people. And Tedi surprises Natalie with a pretty blunt and thought-provoking question. Not just for women, this is an open conversation about reevaluating who we are, what we want to be, how we want our lives to look, and who shares space with us in that life.
Our airport used to be pretty sleepy, but like most of town, things are changing. There's a new parking garage, plus, a couple more nonstop flights kicking off this fall. So today, we're re-sharing my conversation with Boise-based NPR reporter Kirk Siegler. We chat through our BOI rants and raves, and drop our destination wishlist. And according to Boise airport officials, Southwest Airline's weekly nonstop service to Midway in Chicago has returned. Southwest is expected to add a direct flight to Long Beach, Calif. in October. Want some more Boise intel? Head over to our Hey Boise newsletter where you'll get a cheatsheet to the city every weekday morning. Interested in advertising with City Cast Boise? Find more info HERE. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The City Cast Boise crew loves a little day trip adventure but we have to admit, the entrance to the Kuna caves had us more than a little worried. One 50-foot steel cage ladder and a quarter mile of dust later, host Emma Arnold and brave contributor Graham McBride are back to decide if the Kuna caves are a don't miss. What's your take on the Kuna caves? Have another day trip you think we should try out? Let us know by sending us a voicemail or text: 208-546-9485. Want some more Boise guides? Head over to our Hey Boise newsletter where you'll get a cheatsheet to the city every weekday morning. Interested in advertising with City Cast Boise? Find more info HERE. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Today, we are diving into a back-to-school conversation with my dear friend, Jamie Lubiens, who is an extraordinary and dedicated educator. We talk all about the challenges and joys of being a teacher… especially in the last few years! Jamie also shares with us a bit about her family's adoption stories, how she is learning to deal with people pleasing in healthy ways, and… you have to wait until the end to hear two epic facepalm moments—and they both have to do with elementary school gymnastics. Just wait. ------- Jamie is a wife to an imaginative dreamer and continual reformer, mom to two amazing kids, and a Student-Centered Learning Coach in Boise, ID. She is passionate about empowering students to break cycles of poverty through education. Jamie is also a committed follower of Jesus, and along with her husband, Trevor, is part of a team helping to launch Midtown Church, a new church plant in Boise. When she is not working in the public school system, Jamie loves to sing, bake, and play golf. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/carly-bartlett/support
Join Wes Tankersley on this episode as he talks about the trials and tribulations of moving into his new house. He records this episode in the guest room of his new house since his studio isn't ready yet. He designed it to be just right with the lighting, sound, and decorations, so he has to be patient. Guests will join him in that studio when he interviews them. Now Wes and his wife are in the process of unpacking everything. Since this will be their forever home, they need to be meticulous in where they put things because those things will be there for a long time. Before the forever home, he and his wife had a few houses before this one that were not as expensive. The house they lived in before was a rental as they did not plan to live there long. In moving, Wes realized he had a lot of stuff! Some people even suggested he was a hoarder, but he rejected that theory. He is sentimental about things, especially baseball shirts he wore when he coached. Through this moving process, he learned to let go. Does he really need it? He and his wife worked hard for their stuff, so letting go has been a challenge. They don't have time or the patience to sell, so they donated a lot of stuff.Growing up, he and his two brothers had what they needed. His parents couldn't afford a lot of things, so the kids didn't have what everyone else had. For example, when the kids had Jordan sneakers, he had Nike. Wes and his brothers were growing boys, so they kept growing out of clothes and sneakers. Since moving into their forever home, Wes had to adjust to new routines. There is some difficulty getting to his appointments and getting his kids where they need to be since they live in a different place. He is now driving with more traffic since people are heading into the city of Boise like he is. Before he lived in Boise, so commuting was a lot easier. It's a transition, but he will figure it out. Wes is excited to continue podcasting. A few more episodes will be recorded in the guest room until that studio is ready. This is what he loves to do. There are some obstacles in the road, but he is dealing with it. There's no stepping back. He is moving forward!#shapingsuccess #westankersley #patreon #movingforward #guest #conversations #deepconversations #studio #lighting #sound #patience #recording #proud #hardwork #foreverhome #unpack #donate #temporary #rental #stuff #sentimental #baseball #coaching #lettinggo #routine #podcasting #tshirts #onestepatatimeEmail: email@example.comPatreon: Patreon.com/Wes TankersleyLinkedIn: LinkedIn.com/westankersleyFacebook: facebook.com/westankersley Facebook.com/successwarriorcrewInstagram; instagram.com/wes.tankersleyTik Tok: TikTok.com/wes.tankersley TikTok.com/shapingsuccessCheck out our sponsor Tattooed and Successful @tattoedandsuccessfulco use code TANK at check out for a special Discount! https://tattooedandsuccessful.com/Support the showFor merchandise, podcast and youtube: westankersley.com Check out our sponsor The Warriors Collection for coffee, gear and more use code TANK at check out for a special Discount! https://warriorscollectionbrand.com/ Follow Shaping Success https://shapingsuccesspodcast.buzzsprout.com/ Email Wes@westankersley.com for guest ideas or to be on the show!
The Fed can raise interest rates, but they cannot create housing supply. Housing intelligence analyst Rick Sharga joins us for the second week in a row. This housing market is awful for primary residence homebuyers. But at GRE Marketplace, you can still buy income properties with rates as low as 4.75%. Rick tells us that the most prosperous markets now favor the: Midwest and Southeast, single-family homes, rental property investors with buy-and-hold strategies. National home prices are appreciating modestly. Home sales volume is still down. Investors now account for more than one-quarter of property purchases. Mortgage delinquencies are near an all-time low. Rick and I discuss why this market is so bad for flippers. High homeowner equity positions ($300K+) support this housing market. Timestamps: The impact of rising mortgage rates [00:02:37] Discussion on how the Federal Reserve's raising of short-term rates has caused mortgage rates to go up, affecting the housing market. The affordability challenge [00:03:38] Exploration of the impact of higher mortgage rates on homebuyers, particularly first-time buyers, and the decrease in affordability. Low supply of homes [00:08:48] Analysis of the low inventory of homes for sale, with a decrease of 9% from the previous year and 47% from 2019, leading to a challenging market. The mortgage rate lock in effect [00:11:05] Discussion on how the mortgage rate lock in effect can crimp demand but cannot create supply. Hottest markets in the Midwest and Southeast [00:11:05] Analysis of the hottest real estate markets in the Midwest and Southeast regions of the United States. Positive turn in home price appreciation [00:13:06] Explanation of how home price appreciation went down but has recently turned positive again. Housing Permits, Starts, and Construction [00:21:24] Discussion on the trends and levels of housing permits, starts, and construction, and the need for builders to increase production. Investor Activity in the Residential Market [00:22:28] Exploration of the percentage of home purchases made by investors, with a focus on small and medium-sized investors and the misconception of institutional investors dominating the market. Delinquencies and Foreclosures [00:24:36] Analysis of mortgage delinquency rates, foreclosure activity, and homeowner equity, highlighting the low delinquency rates, the presence of equity in foreclosed homes, and the importance of early-stage foreclosure sales. The future direction of rents [00:32:00] Discussion on the potential upward pressure on rents due to low affordability and high homeownership rate. Inventory coming to the market [00:33:03] Exploration of the impact of expensive inventory coming to the market and its effect on rent prices. The overall economy and housing market [00:34:03] Consideration of the possibility of a recession, unemployment spike, and foreclosures affecting the housing market. The coach's role in finding real estate deals [00:43:06] Explanation of how an investment coach can help you find the best real estate deals in the marketplace. Advantages of buying properties from marketplace [00:44:20] Reasons why buying properties from marketplace can lead to good deals, including lower prices and absence of emotional seller involvement. Resources mentioned: Show Notes: www.GetRichEducation.com/467 Rick Sharga's website: CJPatrick.com Rick Sharga on X (Twitter): @RickSharga Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text ‘FAMILY' to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith's personal Instagram: @keithweinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Hold a terrific discussion today on the direction of the housing market, including lessons that you can learn for all time plummeting home sales volume and direly low home inventory. Why home price appreciation is taking place now. Could the government soon penalize you for owning too many rental properties? What's the best place for a real estate investor to position themselves in this era? And more today on Get Rich Education. (00:00:33) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get rich education. (00:00:56) - Walking from Horseheads, New York to Nags Head, North Carolina, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold. And you're listening. To get rich education, you are going to get a fantastic market update today. And along the way, you'll also learn lessons if you're consuming this 5 or 10 years from now. Our expert guest was with us last week to discuss the economy. This week, it's episode two of two as we discuss the real estate market. (00:01:25) - He has been the executive VP of markets at some of America's leading housing intelligence firms, and today he's the founder and CEO of Patrick Company, either a market intelligence firm for the real estate and mortgage markets. And he has 20 plus years of experience in those industries. It's the return of Rick Saga Part two of two. It's not imperative that you listen to last week's Part one of two that we can help you see the big picture. Enjoy this long, unbroken interview and then after the break, I'll come back to close it. Just you and I. We're talking with Rick Sagar, expert housing analyst, previously. We talked about the general condition of the economy. And now Rick and I are going to break down the housing market with what's happening there. There's so definitively connected. Keith One of the things to that the Federal Reserve has done by raising those short term rates is caused mortgage rates to go up, right? Mortgage rates tend to run loosely in line with the yields on the ten year US Treasury bonds that we talked about at the end of the first segment. (00:02:37) - Those are now up around 4%. And typically a 30 year fixed rate mortgage will be between one and a half and two percentage points higher than that yield. So in a normal market, we'd be looking at a mortgage rate today of about five and a half to 6%. Instead because of the risk and the volatility that the market is pricing in because they're not sure what the Federal Reserve is going to do next. We're looking at mortgage rates for a 30 year fixed rate loan of over 7%. The most recent numbers from last week from Freddie Mac, we were at almost 7.2% on that average, 30 year fixed rate loan and 6.5% on a 15 year fixed rate loan. You and I were talking before the show and and you know, historically speaking, if we keep these things in context, we're still actually below the 25 year average, which was 8%. But we have a whole generation of homebuyers who've come of age during the period of the lowest mortgage rates in the history of the country. They got spoiled, they got spoiled. (00:03:38) - And to be clear, it's one of the reasons that home prices rose as rapidly as they did and got as high as they are is because you could afford to make monthly payments with a two and a half, three, 3.5% mortgage. Now, you still have home prices about as high as they were then, and you have a mortgage rate that's doubled. And for most home buyers, particularly first time home buyers that make your monthly mortgage payment was going to go up by 45 to 60%. And most of us didn't get that 45 to 60% raise last year. It really had a huge impact on affordability. In fact, this is such an unusual occurrence that according to Freddie Mac, it's the only time in US history when mortgage rates doubled during a calendar year and they didn't just double in a calendar year. Keith They doubled in the space in a few months. It was that kind of systemic shock to the system that really hit the housing market as hard as it did. Right. And they've also nearly tripled in a pretty short period of time. (00:04:35) - Yeah, they really have. And again, going back historically speaking and and get this from Gen Z folks and millennials, when I talk about, you know, the old days of mortgage and I do remember my first mortgage had two numbers to the left of the decimal point. I forget if it was 11 or 12%, but it was something like that. And they basically say, okay, Boomer, but that 11% mortgage was on your $70,000 house, Right. And not, you know, today's median priced home of $430,000 or whatever it is. So it's a fair point. Mortgage rates are not high, historically speaking, but that monthly cost, because of the combination of home prices and higher interest rates, is choking some people and making affordability a problem. And because of that, one of the forward looking metrics that I take a look at is the purchase loan mortgage application index from the Mortgage Bankers Association. So this is the number of people that are applying for loans with the purpose of buying a house. (00:05:35) - They're off almost 30% on a year over year basis right now. You can see without straining your eyes at all the impact that these higher mortgage rates are having on the housing market. And we had almost record numbers of purchase loan applications from the time people who are allowed out of their house during the pandemic until these mortgage rates doubled from 2020 through the early part of 2022, mortgage rates were in the threes and fours and sometimes even in the twos. Yeah, everyone wants to talk about mortgage rates and it is an important discussion to have here at Marketplace with our investment coaches. Rick Some builders, as you know, they commonly offer rate buy down incentives to buyers of new homes. And what some of our providers are doing here, Rick, is we have one builder where if you use their preferred lender, they're buying down your income property's mortgage rate to 5.75%. And we have another builder where if you use their preferred lender, they're still buying down your mortgage rate to 4.75%. And of course, with Non-owner occupied property here, you know, previously you had talked about mortgage rates in excess of seven. (00:06:47) - They might normally be about 8% for non owner occupied property, but you're able to buy them down to five and three quarters or even four and three quarters with one of our providers for new builds right now, that's a great deal and your listener should really be taking advantage of those opportunities. We'll get into new homes in a few minutes and what we're seeing builders do for consumers, But have to tell you, those numbers are better deals than consumers are getting right now. And you're being generous when you're talking about private lending rates right now. Most of the lenders I'm familiar with are nine, ten, 11%, depending on the nature of your investment. So your folks are getting a great deal with those rates. We talked about purchase loan applications. The other advanced predictor I look at is pending home sales. These are people that are entering into contracts. The deal hasn't been closed yet. Has it been recorded yet? This comes out from the National Association of Realtors. And those numbers are down on a year over year basis as well. (00:07:42) - There's a lot of rate sensitivity in the market, though, Keith. And if you go back to March when rates went down just a fraction of a percent, we saw more purchase loan applications. We saw more pending home sales. But as rates have climbed back up over seven, we've seen both of these metrics go down. Yeah. So we're talking about pending home sales. We're talking about sales volume that's down in this discussion, not sales price. And anyone might be hard to say, but when you see sales volume that's down, including pending sales, how often is that due to worse affordability and how often is that due to low supply of homes? Why don't we jump right into that? Keith That's a great segue. And this is a very difficult time in the housing market because it has both of the factors that you just mentioned, two very difficult headwinds for the market to try and overcome. And and we'll get into details on both of those in just a minute. Because of that, existing home sales were down in July and they were down pretty significantly on a year over year basis, about 16%. (00:08:48) - And that's the 23rd consecutive month where existing home sales were lower than they were the prior year. January was the lowest month of sales this month, and it broke a streak we started this year. I was forecasting that we'd see between 4.3 and 4.4 existing home sales. That's down from about 5.2 last year in about 6.1 million the year before. Right now, we're trending at a little over 4 million existing home sales for the year. So even my relatively low forecast for the year may have been overly optimistic. You mentioned inventory and inventory is a huge headwind for the market. Inventory of homes for sale today is down about 9% from where it was a year ago. It's down 47% from where we were in 2019, which was probably the last normal year we've had in the housing market. In a normal year, we would be looking at about a six month supply of homes available for sale. That's what economists or housing market analysts will look at as a balanced market balance between supply and demand. We're at about two and a half months supply right now nationally and in many states it's much lower than that. (00:09:56) - So there's just not much out here. And the only reason the inventory number looks as good as it looks and it doesn't look very good is because it's taking a little longer to sell properties once they hit the market. If you were looking at new listing data, it's even worse. There's very little inventory coming to market in the way of new listings, and that's because of the rate increases we talked about a minute ago. 90% of borrowers with a mortgage have an interest rate on that mortgage of 6% or less. 70% have an interest rate of 4% or less. If you're sitting on a mortgage rate of 3.5% and you sell your house and buy a house at the same exact price with a 7% mortgage, you've just doubled your monthly mortgage payment. It's not that people psychologically don't want to trade a low rate for a high rate. There's a financial penalty for them doing so. And until we see mortgage rates come down a bit, probably into the fives, we're just not going to see a lot of inventory coming to market except for homeowners who need to sell or have so much equity and maybe you're going to downsize into a smaller property that they don't care about that kind of shift. (00:11:05) - Yeah, that is the mortgage rate lock in effect. Perfectly explain. And the Fed with the raising rates, they can crimp demand. But one thing that the Fed cannot do is create supply. As much as you might like to see Jerome Powell in work boots with a nail gun, that just doesn't happen. There's an image for you, for your listeners. Yeah, and I'm not sure I'd want to. I'd want to live in that house. That's not Chairman Powell building, but inspection. Yeah. Good economist. Maybe not a carpenter. We were talking about this a little bit earlier, too. And if you're an investor, this is probably worth noting, whether you're a fix and flip investor or investor who's buying properties to rent out a lot of the interest. This is from the sharing some data from Realtor.com and they've taken a look at where people are searching for properties and where transactions are taking place and they're finding that Midwest Southeast are really the hottest markets, places that are a little off the beaten path, you know, places in New Hampshire and Connecticut and Maine and Ohio and Wisconsin. (00:12:06) - But interestingly, some of the markets that had been suffering a little bit, they're starting to see a little more interest in whether it's California, but off the coast or markets in Colorado or Washington state. But clearly, a lot of the activity, a lot of the money is moving into the Midwest, in southeast. That's right. With the work from anywhere trend, you might see this small flattening and not as much of a disparity in home prices between markets. You're certainly still going to see that, but that can just help create a mild flattening when it doesn't matter where you live anymore and you can go ahead and purchase in lower cost markets. Yeah, and what I'm sharing now is national home prices, home price. And I'm glad you mentioned what you just did, Keith, because the fact of the matter is this has been a very localized correction. And if you're in San Francisco or San Jose, if you're in Seattle, if you're in Austin, if you're in Phoenix, you're in markets where prices are off 10% or more from peak. (00:13:06) - If you're in Boise, Idaho, you're off more than 10% from peak of Boise had oil prices go up by 47% in a single year, a year or so ago. So he just overshot the mark. One of the reasons the national numbers don't show more volatility is because of what Keith just mentioned. It's because people are trading in where they are in a high price, high tax state moving into a lower price state and candidly outbidding local buyers and probably overpaying a little bit for those properties. So you're seeing home prices go up in some of those less expensive markets much more rapidly than they would under normal circumstances. And what we're talking about here is national home prices that are appreciating at a modest rate now. Yeah, and they are. So if you look at whether you're looking at the Case-Shiller index, it gets published monthly or the National Association of Realtors data. We saw home price appreciation start to go down last year. It was still positive but going down and that was true until pretty much the end of the first quarter this year when the data went negative for the first time in years. (00:14:15) - So we were seeing on both a month over month and year over year basis home prices go down and that happened until June, June, things flatlined in July. Prices actually went up ah, year over year. So if you're looking at the median home price compared to the peak price a year ago, it's actually up about 1% from where we were last year, which is kind of amazing. The Case-Shiller index is a little bit of a lagging indicator and it rolls three months together, but it also started to turn the corner with its July report. So after almost a full year of price appreciation coming down and prices in decline, we've seen both of these indexes turn and are starting to go positive. It does show you that there continues to be demand for properties that are brought to market. And while home price appreciation certainly isn't soaring by any means, it's back in positive territory now. And that's something that a lot of people hadn't predicted this year. When the supply of homes is this low, it keeps generating a few bids for any available home. (00:15:21) - Now, not as many bids as it did back in 2021. But besides generating bids, you have these huge population cohorts of millennials and Gen Zers that are growing, and they're in their prime homebuyer years moving through the system to go ahead and place those bids and keep just modest home price appreciation here lately. That's sort of how I see it. Rick If you want to add any color or thoughts to that, I think you're spot on. Keith It's the largest cohort of young adults between the ages of 25 and 34 in US history. That's prime age for forming a household. 33 to 34 is the average age of a first time buyer right now. And so these people would like to buy a house. And for people who are investing in single family rental properties in particular, at least short term, the affordability issue is something that definitely works in your favor. If somebody was looking to buy a house, they might prefer to rent a house rather than rent an apartment. I've read research that shows somewhere between 20 and 30% of people who had planned to buy have decided to rent for the next year or two while market conditions settle down or while they can put aside more money for a down payment. (00:16:27) - These market conditions are playing in favor of people who have rental properties to offer. One other metric I'd like to share in terms of home prices, Keith is the FHFa puts out its own index. FHFa is the government entity that controls Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. So these are your conventional bread and butter, vanilla kind of 30 year fixed rate loans. If you look at their portfolio, home prices are actually up 3.1% year over year. And every sector of the country is showing positive rice appreciation except for the Pacific states and the mountain states. And those are some of the markets we talked about earlier. And even those are very close to breaking even at this point. So HFA breaks it into about ten regions, nine of those ten currently appreciating year over year. Yep, something like that important for you to know again as an investor as to what's happening in your region. Again, whether you're you're planning to sell the property or rent it out. You talked about what builders are doing for your investor folks. (00:17:28) - Yeah, we're seeing new home sales actually improving to consumers as well for a lot of the same reasons, incentives. So a lot of builders are coming to the closing table with cash. They're paying points on mortgages and getting those rates down where they're short term or long term. They're offering discounts, they're offering upgrades to properties. And so new home sales are still down, but just slightly on a year over year basis and have actually been beating last year's numbers for the last four months. My original estimate for new home sales this year was about 600,000. I think we're going to probably coming closer to 675,000 this year. And the only reason we won't sell more is because the builders aren't building that fast enough. But one of the reasons people are buying these new homes is because that's what's on the market today. People would have bought an existing home, can't find one. Here's the other factor. New home prices are down 16.4% from last year's peak. Now, this is informative. Think this would surprise a lot of people? Well, it surprises me. (00:18:28) - It should surprise people because new home prices almost always go up, right? This does not mean builders are discounting homes 16.4%. What's happening is they are building less expensive homes, They're less expensive per square foot, and they're building smaller homes. And they're doing that in acknowledgement of the higher cost of financing. That also, by the way, is in sending people to look at these properties as either a starter home or a minor move up kind of property. But it is one of the reasons why new home sales are doing better than existing home sales right now on a percentage basis. That's an interesting number, Rick. A few weeks ago, I shared with our newsletter audience that builders are building homes smaller and closer together, which might be reflected in lower prices, but just didn't think it would be 16.4% lower from peak. Now, if you're doing year over year, it's probably not that big of a drop, but from the peak price we are off. And it is to your point, it's a pretty significant number. (00:19:26) - It would be a problematic number if it was the existing home market, right, because then you'd be looking at the same property being worth 16% less. But a builder can kind of play with those numbers a little bit. Single family housing starts after falling for quite a while, are now back going back up only slightly from where they were a year ago, but they are moving in the right direction. Multifamily starts have actually tailed off a little bit after reaching record high numbers. There could be as many as a million apartment units coming to market this year. Yeah, which would be an all time record. So we've seen building on those multifamily units slow down a little bit. If you look at at new home starts for single family properties still below where they were a year ago. But again, for the first time in quite a few months, starting to trend up. A couple of things to share with your viewers here, Keith. In terms of construction, we're seeing construction continue to grow in the multifamily market because of all the starts we saw previously. (00:20:23) - We are seeing single family construction slowed down, but that's because the builders are working their way through a glut of homes that was under construction. So we had a really weird happenstance about a year ago, a little over year, we had the highest number of homes under construction ever. And this data goes back to the early 1970s, and we had the lowest number of completed properties available for sale ever. And a lot of that was due to supply chain delays and to labor shortages. And over the last year to 15 months, the builders have gradually begun working through this glut of homes that were started but not finished. And we've seen the number of completed homes go up a little bit, almost back to normal levels, not quite there. One of the reasons they're not quite there is people are buying these homes before they're completed. They're working with the builder. Buying a home is it's almost ready to go, but still under construction. What's been encouraging, looking into the future is that permitting has increased a bit over the last two quarters. (00:21:24) - We know builders are betting on the future. They're not necessarily breaking ground on all these properties they have permits for because they don't want to oversaturate either. And they're being very judicious with their building because they got caught with a ton of inventory during the Great Recession that they wound up selling at fire sale prices. But the trends are long term, looking like they're going in the right direction right now for new homes. So to help the viewer and listeners chronologically, we're talking about housing permits followed by housing starts. And then finally, housing construction. Right? Permits are up, starts are up recently, but down year over year. And the construction numbers are getting back close to normal levels. And we need the builders to build more because even before the rate lock effect took effect and existing home inventory got so scarce we didn't have enough housing in the works, we were depending on whose numbers you believe, somewhere between 2 and 6 million units short. We need the builders to come back to market. Note for your folks. (00:22:28) - Keith Investors continue to account for a fairly significant amount of activity in the residential market. Over a quarter of home purchases 26% in June, which is the most recent data we have, were made by investors and believe this number actually under reports the number of investor purchases because it's from a company called CoreLogic, it's accurate data for what they count, but they only count investor purchases where the buying entity has an LLC and LP Corp kind of entity. And we know that a lot of buyers don't do that who are investors. So it probably understates it. But the fact of the matter is that historically speaking, 26% of residential purchases being done by investors is pretty high number. That's a pretty high number and as you alluded to, is probably actually higher than 26% of home purchases being made by investors. And so the headlines will breathlessly tell you that Main Street is being gobbled up by Wall Street. Oh, I know. And those institutional investors are evil people. They're buying everything that the truth is is completely the opposite. (00:23:31) - If you look at investors who are buying properties, it's really the small investors who are buying about 46% of those investor purchases and medium sized investors about 35%. If you're looking at the biggest of the big investors, they're buying less than 10% of what's going out today. And they still own collectively about 3% of the single family rental stock. It's the mom and pop investor who continues to drive the market. Yeah, I'm glad you bring this up, Rick, because there seems to be this outsized perception that institutional money through someone like, say, in Invitation homes is just gobbling up all the good investor homes. And and they're really not. It's mom and pop investors that rule. In fact, there's some legislation pending in D.C. right now that's aimed to keep these institutional investors from doing what they're already not doing and have some tax penalties for anybody who owns. Here's the number that's important. More than 50 properties well, Invitation Homes owns significantly more than 50 properties. I know a lot of medium sized investors who own more than 50 properties. (00:24:36) - Yeah, they're certainly not institutional investors. They certainly don't have a hedge fund behind them. Important again, for folks in this market to be in touch with their legislators and let them know what's really going on in the marketplace so we don't get this kind of bad legislation. It makes it tough for the average investor to really take full advantage of the opportunities that are out there. 100%. Mom and pop investors might need more than 50 units to obtain financial freedom. Yep. Just to wrap up, Keith, a couple of points on delinquencies and foreclosures. I know a lot of investors got into the business, you know, a decade or so ago and there was just a rash of foreclosure activity and you could buy a distressed property by just walking down the street and knocking on doors. It's a little different these days because of that strong economy we talked about earlier. In that low unemployment rate. Mortgage delinquencies are at an all time low. Mortgage Bankers Association reported that the midpoint of this year, at the end of the second quarter, the total delinquency rate was 3.37%. (00:25:36) - To put that in context, historically the number is somewhere between 4 and 5%. So not only are we not seeing a lot of delinquencies, we're seeing less than we would see normally as seriously delinquent loans. The ones that are 90 days plus past due is as low as we've seen it in probably the last 6 or 7 years. That's really interesting. So not very many homeowners are in trouble with making their payments, which to some people might seem like a conflict with what we described back in the earlier part of the chat about low savings and higher credit card debt. So many of these homeowners are locked in to these really low payments where they got low mortgage interest rates. Plus inflation cannot touch those fixed rate payments. And that's an important point for those people that are in these homes. It would be more expensive for them to go rent right now, probably because they got such a good deal on the mortgage rate. There's usually a pretty strong correlation between unemployment rates and mortgage delinquency rates. So I mentioned that the most recent report had unemployment at 3.8%. (00:26:37) - I think at the end of June it was a 3.5%. So we might see delinquency rates tick up a little bit. There was also some really bad social media memeing going on during the government's mortgage forbearance program. There was even an economist who predicted that almost everybody who got a forbearance was going to go into default and that would have been a catastrophe. If you look back a little over a year ago, actually more like two years ago when there was there were a lot of people in forbearance. You saw delinquency rates very high, but that was because people were allowed to miss payments. They were just being counted by the industry as delinquent. The fact is that less than a half of a percent, less than one half of 1% of the borrowers who were in forbearance and there were 8.5 million of them have defaulted on their loans. The overwhelming majority have done very, very well with that program. So it really didn't contribute to any kind of delinquency or default activity. So strong economy, extremely high, low quality because lenders really haven't been making many risky loans since the Great Recession. (00:27:40) - The record amount of of homeowner equity that's out there. Yeah. Is keeping this market pretty solid to the point where foreclosure activity today is still running at a little bit less than 60% of pre-pandemic levels. So in a normal market, about 1 to 1.5% of loans are in some state of foreclosure. In today's market, it's about a half a percent. So we're just not seeing much go into foreclosure and the properties that go into foreclosure. The homeowners have a significant amount of equity. 92% of borrowers in foreclosure have equity in their homes, which is wildly different from where we were during the great financial crisis, when a third of all homeowners were underwater on their loans. At just about everybody in foreclosure was upside down. And people push back at me when I'm out talking at conferences about this. Keith Oh, yeah, they have equity, but they don't have enough equity to make a difference. Oh, yes, they do. 88% of the borrowers in foreclosure have more than 20% equity. That's typically the magic number that a realtor will tell you you need in order to sell your property and avoid any other kind of complications with one of these foreclosures, preventing any sort of fire sale and lowering of prices that makes all home prices go down in a neighborhood where not anywhere near that. (00:28:57) - No, not at all. And in fact, some other data that I'll share with you and your listeners is that about 62% of the distressed property sales we see right now are properties in the early stage of foreclosure prior to the foreclosure auction, which means these distressed homeowners are protecting their equity by selling the property before it gets sold at a foreclosure sale. And so they're protecting the vast amount of this equity. But if you're an investor in today's market, there's some really important information in what I just gave you. You can't wait for the bank repossession. In this cycle, bank repossessions are running 70% below where they were prior to the pandemic, so there's fewer properties getting to auction because 67% of these distressed property sales are prior to the auction. Properties that get to auction are selling through at about 60% rate. So there's nothing going back to the lenders. So if you want to buy a property in some stage of foreclosure, your best bet in today's market is to get a list of people in the early stages of foreclosure and reach out directly to them. (00:30:01) - Your second best bet is to get to that foreclosure auction. Be ready to move at the auction, and your worst bet is to wait for the lender to repossess the property. And in fact, I've seen anecdotal data that suggests that those properties are actually more expensive than the ones you could buy from the homeowner or at the auction because the lenders are fixing them up and selling them at full market price. Good guidance for those chasing distressed properties. So that's what's going on in the foreclosure market. I don't see foreclosure activity being back to normal levels until sometime next year. And I don't see activity bank repossessions being back to normal levels even next year. It's a very different marketplace. This is what I was just talking about. Keith If you were to break up what selling and what stage of the foreclosure process right now, about 64% of distressed sales are taking place prior to the foreclosure auction and less than 20%. Distressed sales today are those background properties. So it's a very different world than what a lot of investors grew up in. (00:31:03) - Rick is about to share his summary with us, his closing thoughts. Before he does that, I've got two questions for you, Rick. I hear some people out there, it seems to be oftentimes the real estate agent type, maybe that's trying to be a big cheerleader for the market. And I hear a few of them say something like, hey, you know what? You better buy now, because when mortgage rates fall, home prices are really going to shoot through the roof. I don't really know that that necessarily happens because when mortgage rates fall, okay, that might increase demand of capable homebuyers, but it should also increase supply. Now, the mortgage rate lock in effect, goes away and more people will want to bring supply onto the market. And I also like to think about what happens when rates are falling. Typically, that means the economy needs help and unemployment might be a little higher. So my thoughts, Rick, are if mortgage rates do fall substantially, that might help home price appreciation a little bit, but I don't see it as any sure thing that that would make home prices go through the roof. (00:32:00) - What are your thoughts? It's a great question. You make a very logical argument. A lot of it comes down to supply. And that's where I would hedge my bets. I don't think we see a ton of supply come back to market until rates are back in the low fives. So there's a point and a half of interest going from little over seven to maybe 5.5%, where we're probably going to see more buyers come to market than we're going to see inventory come to the market. My other thought we touched on it earlier is with rents. Talk to me about the future direction of rents. They were horribly hot a year or two ago, up 15% year over year. Rents have moderated substantially. But with this really lousy home affordability and a high homeownership rate, it seems like with this low affordability, we're set up for the homeownership rate to go lower in the proportion that rent go higher, which could put upward pressure on rents over time here. What are your thoughts with rents? Yeah, offsetting what you just said is a record number of apartment units coming to market this year. (00:33:03) - There are likely to be some markets across the country that wind up oversupplied because of the amount of inventory coming to market. Now, don't get me wrong, the inventory coming to market is going to tend to be expensive inventory. And so that in and of itself could make rent prices come up a bit. I do believe in the short term I would tend to agree with you that the lack of housing stock available for people who would like to buy is going to play in the benefit of the folks who own properties to rent. And that will, I believe, be particularly true for people that own single family residential units that are like houses to rent. I guess we're going to split the difference on these two questions. I'm going to mostly agree with you on the second one. I do believe there's a chance prices will go up a little bit more than you think as mortgage rates come down until we get down to about 5.5%, mortgage rates are lower when we see more of that inventory coming to market. And what is the real wild card in all of this, of course, is what happens with the overall economy. (00:34:03) - Do we enter a recession? Does unemployment spike? If that's the case, that should weaken, demand a bit and you could have a little bit of an uptick in foreclosures, which will weaken the market as well. So a lot of different components at play. And I think what people ask you questions like that, Keith, about, you know, mortgage rates come down, is this going to happen? They kind of oversimplify the equation quite a bit. There are a lot of other variables that go into it. 100%. Why don't you go ahead and share your closing thoughts with us? A lot of stuff we covered, so I won't dwell on too much of this very long. But from my perspective, a recession is still a real possibility. Probably not until next year if we have one. And if we do, it's likely to be pretty mild and fairly short and we shouldn't see a huge, huge spike in unemployment. I do believe that as the Fed decides it's done raising the Fed funds rate and announces that we'll see mortgage rates gradually decline back toward 6% by the end of this year. (00:34:57) - And we'll be back in the fives next year. And by the way, historically, every time the Fed has stopped raising the Fed funds rate, we have seen mortgage rates come back down. Existing home sales right now are on pace for their lowest number since 2009. Likely, we're going to see somewhere in the neighborhood of 4.2 million existing home sales. But we're likely to see more new home sales than a lot of people had forecast beginning of this year, maybe 650, 675,000 of those sales in 2023. And we've seen prices decline in the new home market, but they might have bottomed out in the existing home market because of the supply and demand thing that Keith and I have kind of beaten to death during this podcast. Again, importantly for this audience, investors continue to account for a very large percentage of residential purchases and a lot of you seem to be shifting toward buy and hold strategies, which again makes ultimately good sense in a market like today's. And then that anticipated wave of foreclosures that all those folks on YouTube were trying to sell you courses to figure out how to maximize never materialized. (00:35:57) - And at least during this cycle, not likely to any time soon. Probably won't. Yes, A lot of people a couple of years ago, especially on YouTube, were talking about a certain price collapse is coming and it never happened. And I never saw how it would have happened and I never made those sort of dire predictions. Well, Rick, this was a great chat about the overall economy, the housing market and what investors need with the housing market. I'm sure our audience learned an awful lot. It was a terrific update. If our audience wants to learn more about you and kind of wish this chat would just go on and they could learn more about you and engage with your resources. What's the best way for them to do that? Well, you can certainly follow me on social media. I refuse to say my Twitter handle is just Rick Saga. I'm on LinkedIn to hard to find there. You can also check out my website which is Patrick. Com. Enjoy doing these conversations with you Keith. (00:36:51) - Think the first time we talked you reached out because I had come down like the wrath of God on somebody who was predicting a housing price crash because I didn't see one coming either and thought he was doing investors a disservice. So keep the faith and keep the good fight going. Keith And I'll be here whenever you want to talk. Jerry Listeners can't stop talking about their service from Ridge Lending Group and MLS 42056. They have provided our tribe with more loans than anyone there truly a top lender for beginners and veterans. It's where I go to get my own loans for single family rental property up to four Plex's. So start your pre-qualification and you can chat with President Charlie Ridge personally, though, even deliver your custom plan for growing your real estate portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending Group. Com. You know, I'll just tell you for the most passive part of my real estate investing personally, I put my own dollars with freedom family investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in. Returns are better than a bank savings account up to 12%. (00:38:00) - Their minimums are as low as 25. K. You don't even need to be accredited. For some of them, it's all backed by real estate and I kind of love how the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains in your W-2, jobs, income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 668660. And this isn't a solicitation If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to six six, eight six, six. Hi, this is Russell Gray, co-host of the Real Estate Guy's radio show. And you're listening to Get Rich Education with Keith Reinhold. Don't Quit Your Day dream. Yeah, terrific insight from Rick, as usual. It's remarkable how much this interview is aligned with what we're doing here. As Rick discussed how, though, it's a tough environment for homebuyers, it's better for investors, especially for single family rentals and especially in the Midwest and South are core areas. (00:39:23) - It's a better market for the buy and hold investor than it is for flippers. It's a tough chase for flippers. Sometimes you don't flip the house, the house flips you. There are still so few homeowners in delinquency and foreclosure. Rick believes that when lower mortgage rates come, home, prices could appreciate more than I tend to think. We'll see how that turns out. And, you know, historically here, as we talk about the direction of home prices and the direction of rent growth Now with respect to home prices, when I provided you with the home price appreciation forecast, I keep somewhat undershooting. The market appreciation tends to outperform what I think by just a bit. Back in 2018, 2019, home price appreciation rates, they were just kind of bumping along at 4 or 5%. Back then, interest rates were super low, housing supply was more balanced. And I said right here on this show then about five years ago, that I don't see what will make home price growth like really accelerate or shoot up from here. (00:40:32) - Well, then we had the pandemic, something that no one saw coming when the pandemic fog cleared. You remember that all here on the show in late 2021, I forecast 9 to 10% home price appreciation for the coming year, which back then I was talking about 2022. And then that appreciation rate for 2022 came in at 10.2%. Although I was close, I shot just a touch low. Now at the end of 2022, well, about nine months ago, I predicted zero home price appreciation for this year. As we near the fourth quarter, it looks like we'll get low single digit appreciation, but that remains to be seen. However, I've long been undershooting the market just a bit, though. Close and mortgage rates. No, don't even ask me. I don't try I don't make mortgage forecast. That is too hard to do. Making a mortgage rate prediction is almost like a certain way to be wrong. Although Rick and I talked about how this is a good market for investors, to my point from last week, in some markets, cash flow has become an endangered species with some of these increasing expenses for investors. (00:41:46) - And again, I have some really good news for you here. We have largely solved that problem here at Gray of higher mortgage rates, hurting your cash flow. And that's why investors like you are still snapping up rental properties from Marketplace right now because of the strength of our marketplace network and relationships. Here we have a new build provider offering a mortgage rate to investors of 5.75%. Yes, they will see that your rate is bought down to 5.75%. In today's environment, another new build investment property provider is offering a rate buy down to 4.75%. Yes, you heard THAtrillionIGHT? And we have another builder provider where our investment coaches have been sharing with you a 2.99% seller financing option. There is more to it than that. And these builders, though they are in business to move property. So take advantage of it where you can. And besides buying down your mortgage rate for you like that, some are even waiving their property management fee for you for the first year. In addition to buying down the rate. I don't know how long all that's going to last, so this can be a really good time for you to contact your in investment coach. (00:43:06) - Your coach will help you shop the marketplace properties, tell you where the real deals are and tell you how to get those improbably low mortgage rates for income properties. Today, your coach guides you and makes it easy for you If you don't have an investment coach yet, just go to Marketplace. Com slash coach and they're there to help you out. And marketplace properties they are often less expensive than elsewhere in addition to the low rates from some of the providers. But now you might wonder why often are the prices not always, but often, why are they lower? Well, first of all, investor advantage markets just intrinsically have lower prices than the national median. And secondly, there is no real estate agent to compensate with the traditional 6% commission, you are buying more directly. Thirdly, these property providers, they are not. And pop flippers that provide investors like you and other people where they just flip like one home a year instead. These are builders and renovation and management companies in business to do this at scale so they get to buy their materials in bulk, keeping the price lower for you. (00:44:20) - And another reason that you tend to find good deals at Marketplace is that you aren't buying properties from owner occupants where their emotions get involved and they get irrational over there on the seller side. So you can go ahead and get started with off market deals at GRI, marketplace.com. If you'd like the free coaching from our investment coaches, then contact your coach. And if you don't have one yet again you can do that straight at GRI marketplace.com/coach that's an action item for you this week that your future self should thank you for until next week. I'm your host Keith Winfield. Don't quit your day dream. (00:45:04) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of Get Rich Education LLC exclusively. (00:45:32) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building get rich education.
Trevor is back for the first time for the second time. We go WAY back, from Fallujah to Idaho. We cover everything from toxic leadership to becoming a celebrity barber. This episode is a taste of what an evening at Barclay & Hill sounds like. Links:https://www.instagram.com/barclayandhill/https://square.site/book/EFC1QKE78YEEK/barclay-hill-meridian-id
About a decade ago, Boise was the place for young people, especially artists. But rising housing costs and low wages have us wondering: Is that still true? Ryan Marsh from the Backyardists is here to help us dig into the challenges facing young people, and whether or not Boise can still call itself “cool.” Do you think Boise is a city for young people, or not? Let us know by sending us a voicemail or text: 208-546-9485. Want some more Boise info? Head over to our Hey Boise newsletter for guides and backstories on your favorite place. Interested in advertising with City Cast Boise? Find more info HERE. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Today's Mystery:Sam tries to help a retired teacher who lost $1,000 to an old con game.Original Radio Broadcast Date: March 9, 1951Originated from HollywoodStarred Steven Dunne as Sam Spade, Lurene Tuttle as Effie, Ed Mack, Verna Felton, Lou Merrill, Tony Barrett, Shirley Mitchell, Nester Paiva, Jerry HausnerSupport the show monthly at patreon.greatdetectives.netSupport the show on a one-time basis at http://support.greatdetectives.net.Mail a donation to: Adam Graham, PO Box 15913, Boise, Idaho 83715Take the listener survey at http://survey.greatdetectives.netGive us a call at 208-991-4783Follow us on Instagram at http://instagram.com/greatdetectivesFollow us on Twitter @radiodetectivesJoin us again tomorrow for another detective drama from the Golden Age of Radio.This show is part of the Spreaker Prime Network, if you are interested in advertising on this podcast, contact us at https://www.spreaker.com/show/4607052/advertisement
Episode 462: Today on Turned Out A Punk: Doug Martsch is built to spill the beans on his punk past! Listen in as Damian sits down, with one of Boise's favourite sons, to discuss the inspiration of Tad and Septic Death. From Treepeople's punk answer to critics, to grunge being overrated, to working with Brotherhood, to liking NoFX: THIS IS NOT TO BE MISSED! Also, don't miss Doug and Built To Spill on tour this fall, more info at builttospill.com
On this Metal Monday, Nick and Brett are back in Boise and ready to talk about Scrap Expo, the metals markets, and the outlook for fall. If you'd like to guest star on Metal Monday or be on A Scrap Life, text us at: (208) 487-4311. Produced by Recycled Media.
Todays Mystery:Friday and Romero investigate the brutal murder of a twenty-one-year-old woman in a vacant lot.Original Radio Broadcast Date: July 7, 1949Originated from HollywoodStarred: Jack Webb as Sergeant Joe Friday, Barton Yarborough as Sergeant Ben Romero, Raymond Burr as Ed Backstrand, Chief of Detectives, Stacy Harris, Hans ConreidSupport the show monthly at patreon.greatdetectives.netSupport the show on a one-time basis at http://support.greatdetectives.net.Mail a donation to: Adam Graham, PO Box 15913, Boise, Idaho 83715Take the listener survey at http://survey.greatdetectives.netGive us a call at 208-991-4783Follow us on Instagram at http://instagram.com/greatdetectivesFollow us on Twitter @radiodetectivesJoin us again on Monday for another detective drama from the Golden Age of Radio.This show is part of the Spreaker Prime Network, if you are interested in advertising on this podcast, contact us at https://www.spreaker.com/show/4607052/advertisement
Support Us at Patreon.com/YbPodcast Discover the thrilling world of skydiving through the extraordinary journey of Oshea, a true adventurer hailing from the heart of Twin Falls, Idaho! This rerun has undergone a remastering process with Adobe Audition to provide you with the best possible listening experience. Be sure to visit our YouTube channel to catch all the shorts and video clips from this episode. Don't miss out! Nestled in the vibrant town of Nampa, Oshea has strategically positioned himself near the pulse of the skydiving universe – Sky Down Skydiving. With over 200+ logged jumps, he's not only conquered the open skies but is now venturing into the adrenaline-pumping realm of base jumping. As he delves into his passion, you'll be amazed to learn that Oshea's skydiving story began with the aspiration to "wing suit." Yet, life had an exciting twist in store for him. Falling in love with the exhilarating experience of jumping from planes and free-falling, Oshea found a path that resonated deeply. But the adventure doesn't stop there. Oshea and Casey's friendship spans over a decade, originating back when Oshea was one of Casey's first friends upon his arrival in the stunning state of Idaho. Their bond is a testament to the camaraderie fostered in this beautiful region. Beyond the skydiving thrills, Oshea has also embarked on a journey with Bonnie Plants while diligently building a life rooted in the charm of Boise. Curious to know more about Oshea's skydiving escapades and his fascinating journey? Follow his sky-soaring endeavors on Instagram @oshizzzy, and join us on this episode of the YoungBloodPodcast as we uncover the inspiring stories that weave the fabric of our great locals.
Host Emma Arnold's chatting with Hey Boise newsletter editor Blake Hunter about the week's news. They're talking a possible expansion for the Ada County jail, Boise's mayoral candidates weighing in on recent police shootings, and where to get the new COVID-19 booster. Plus, Valley Regional Transit wants your input! Want some more Boise news? Head over to our Hey Boise newsletter where you'll get a cheatsheet to the city every weekday morning. Interested in advertising with City Cast Boise? Find more info HERE. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Join Eric Lopez and special guest host UCF Mike as they debate some of the current topics surrounding UCF Athletics. In this episode, the guys talk about the news of John Rhys Plumlee's injury and the ascension of Timmy McClain to QB1 in his absence. The guys also break down a gritty and gutty road win at Boise, which saw plenty of good, and a little bit of bad. The guys also discuss the play on offense and defense, specifically if they still have any concerns after 2 weeks. Plus: the Big 12 bounces back, Colton tied a record, and when was the last walk-off field goal for UCF? Be sure to subscribe to our channel to watch future episodes of Around the Kingdom, with a new drop each week. Also, check out SonsofUCF.com for more UCF coverage Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
To get the latest from Denise Dunlap, you can follow her below!LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/denisedunlap55/ Learn more about Sage Growth Capital - https://www.sagegrowthcapital.com*All other companies discussed in this episode are linked on their website above. Sign up for Marcia's newsletter to receive tips and the latest on Angel Investing!Website: www.marciadawood.com And don't forget to follow us wherever you are!Apple Podcasts: https://pod.link/1586445642.appleSpotify: https://pod.link/1586445642.spotifyLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/angel-next-door-podcast/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theangelnextdoorpodcast/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@marciadawood
Whether it's sipping on fancy cocktails, enjoying live music, or dancing til the wee hours, Boise's nightlife offers plenty of options. So today, 103.5 Kiss FM's Mateo joins host Emma Arnold to sort through the best spots and plan the perfect night out in Boise. Let us know where you like to enjoy a night out by sending us a voicemail or text: 208-546-9485. Want some more Boise news? Head over to our Hey Boise newsletter where you'll get a cheatsheet to the city every weekday morning. Interested in advertising with City Cast Boise? Find more info HERE. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Today's Mystery: An international playboy is poisoned.Original Radio Broadcast Date: October 27, 1948Originated in: New York CityStarred: Karl Swenson as Mister ChameleonSupport the show monthly at patreon.greatdetectives.netSupport the show on a one-time basis at http://support.greatdetectives.net.Mail a donation to: Adam Graham, PO Box 15913, Boise, Idaho 83715Take the listener survey at http://survey.greatdetectives.netGive us a call at 208-991-4783Follow us on Instagram at http://instagram.com/greatdetectivesFollow us on Twitter @radiodetectivesJoin us again tomorrow for another detective drama from the Golden Age of Radio.This show is part of the Spreaker Prime Network, if you are interested in advertising on this podcast, contact us at https://www.spreaker.com/show/4607052/advertisement
Doug and Bingo take the train to Chicago to catch The Road Dog premiere. The Road Dog will be available on multiple streaming platforms Oct 6th, 2023. Thank You Patreon Subscribers. We could not do this without your ongoing support. Recorded Sep. 2nd, 2023 from a Chicago Hotel with Doug Stanhope (@dougstanhope), and Ggreg Chaille in Boise, ID. Produced and Edited by Chaille. Signed copies of "This Is Not Fame" available while supplies last at Stanhope Store - http://www.dougstanhope.com/store/ We have no idea what the future holds so get on the Mailing List at https://www.dougstanhope.com/. When we know, we'll let you know. LINKS - DraftKings.com - New customers can bet $5 on football & get $200 instantly in bonus bets. Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app & use code STANHOPE FACTOR - Support the show AND get 50% off delicious Factor meals at https://www.factormeals.com/STANHOPE50 and use code STANHOPE50 Closing song, “The Stanhope Rag”, written and performed by Scotty Conant for Doug Stanhope and used with permission – Available on Soundcloud - https://soundcloud.com/scottyconant Support the podcast at www.patreon.com/stanhopepodcastJoin Doug's Mailing List - http://www.DougStanhope.com Photo by CHAILLESupport the show: http://www.Patreon.com/stanhopepodcast
Today's Mystery:Steve is sent to the South China Sea to use a notorious smuggler Captain Jaeger to break a smuggling racket.Original Radio Broadcast Date: July 10, 1951Originated in HollywoodStars: Brian Donlevy as Steve Mitchell, Herb Butterfield as the Commissioner, Tony Barrett, Irene Winston, Paul Dubov, and Jean TatumSupport the show monthly at patreon.greatdetectives.netSupport the show on a one-time basis at http://support.greatdetectives.net.'Mail a donation to: Adam Graham, PO Box 15913, Boise, Idaho 83715Take the listener survey at http://survey.greatdetectives.netGive us a call at 208-991-4783Follow us on Instagram at http://instagram.com/greatdetectivesFollow us on Twitter @radiodetectivesJoin us again tomorrow for another detective drama from the Golden Age of Radio.This show is part of the Spreaker Prime Network, if you are interested in advertising on this podcast, contact us at https://www.spreaker.com/show/4607052/advertisement
Swiping through Boise's dating apps can feel like a never-ending nightmare, so Natalie DeWitt joins host Emma Arnold to set the scene. Natalie explains the different personalities you'll find, red flags to be aware of and tells us about a smelly date night that made her never want to touch a dating app ever again. Have a nightmare dating app story? We want to hear it! Send us a voicemail or text: 208-546-9485. Want some more Boise news? Head over to our Hey Boise newsletter where you'll get a cheatsheet to the city every weekday morning. Interested in advertising with City Cast Boise? Find more info HERE. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Today we're getting out the map to decide once and for all: are we in the Mountain West, the Pacific Northwest, or another region entirely? Listen to find out which region gets to claim us. What's your take? Are we more PNW or Mountain West, or something else entirely? Let us know by sending us a voicemail or text: 208-546-9485. Want some more Boise news? Head over to our Hey Boise newsletter where you'll get a cheatsheet to the city every weekday morning. Interested in advertising with City Cast Boise? Find more info HERE. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This episode on the Rebel WhiteCoat Podcast is all about energy, healing, and manifestation with guest Jennifer Smith! Jennifer is a wife of 20 years and mother of 2 teenage boys. She transformed her life from corporate engineering marketing & business development leader into energy healer, teacher, and spiritual coach…. A leap of faith to uplift the consciousness of our planet and contribute to the “new earth” energy solutions. Highlights from this episode: how Jennifer got into energy work from an engineering/business background how to get connected with like minded healers how to start on your spirituality journey explaination of Avesa Quantum Healing where Jennifer starts with clients for healing work and what to expect explaining why quantum healing focuses on lower 3 chakras what victim consciousness mean and how it impacts your ability to heal yourself how to use your emotions to manifest your life and how vibrations can impact this basic tips to manifest and how to manifest what you really desire how to step into high vibrational states You can learn more about Jennifer here: www.naturalenergyhealing.life You can follow her on social media here: Youtube - @naturalenergyhealing, Facebook - @NaturalEnergyHealing To hear more from Jennifer, you can find details on working with her and listening to her broadcasts here: Avesa Quantum Healing + Reiki Healing (Dr. Kunevich's in Smithton, IL and Dr. Hoover's in Bethalto, IL) “Jen & Geri Show, Cosmic Queens” Broadcasting on Oneness Talk Radio every Monday at 12pm CT. Providing a weekly energy forecast along with inspiration for the week. Geri Habstritt is an Avesa Quantum Healer & Medical intuitive from Boise, Idaho. “Living in the Fifth Dimension” series broadcasting on social media channels every Tuesday at 4pm CT. Carol Reed and I discuss the insoulments and provide practical information for upliftment. Carol Reed is an Avesa Quantum Healer from Syndey Australia Thank you, Jennifer! All podcast guest inquires can be emailed to firstname.lastname@example.org
Makhosi is back on the pod for our third interview and the conversations just keep getting better! You'll get to hear how just ONE THING she said to us earlier in the year helped us create $111,000 cash and the purchase of a new home to host our events. Some nuggets of gold in the episode:Accepting the Beyonce within and owning your inner "Queen B"Are you just a few degrees of separation from the very thing you want?How to create abundance from abundance verses creating abundance from scarcityThe truth behind quantum leaps and abundance versus what people actually think it isWhat is Euphoria?Breakfast business tips from Richard Branson and so much more!Join us LIVE in Boise at the Women in Business Leadership Lounge Sept 23 by clicking here! Find us on IG hereJoin Makhosi's Abundance Alchemy Challenge hereFind Makhosi on IG here
In many world nations, if you're born poor, you stay poor. I discuss how in America, you can be upwardly mobile. Back in 2010, real estate prices had fallen, but rents had not. This created years of cash flow. Today, as prices have outpaced rents, cash flow keeps shrinking. Our Investment Coaches have access to income properties with 4.75% and 5.75% mortgage interest rates. It's a way to "bring back cash flow". Get started at GREmarketplace.com/Coach Terrific housing intelligence analyst Rick Sharga joins us for the first of two consecutive episodes. Rick & I discuss the condition of the American consumer, inflation and interest rates, concerns about a potential economic downturn, the housing market, the impact of consumer confidence on spending, and the actions taken by the Federal Reserve to control inflation. There's flagging consumer confidence and a yield curve inversion. Are these finally harbingers of an economic recession? Rick's informal survey of economists find that there's a 50-50 chance of a recession this cycle. Earlier this year, 80% of economists felt that a recession was imminent. If there is a recession this cycle, Rick thinks there's a probability that it will be mild. Average hourly wages are $28-29 / hour. Wage growth is 4-5%. Wages are finally running higher than home price appreciation. Timestamps: The Future of Real Estate Investing [00:01:33] Discusses how owning real estate can help individuals move into a different wealth class and the benefits of owning rental properties. Changes in the Real Estate Market [00:04:06] Explains how the real estate market has changed over the years, with property prices catching up to rents and the decrease in cash flow opportunities. Taking Advantage of Low Mortgage Rates [00:07:53] Highlights the opportunity for investors to take advantage of low mortgage rates offered by builders and the benefits of using their preferred lenders. (Yes, even here in 2023. We have 4.75% and 5.75% rates that builders buy down.) The housing market correction [00:11:31] Discussion on the correction in the housing market and its localized impact on different regions. Economic landscape of the United States [00:16:09] Overview of the US economy, including GDP growth and the strength of consumer spending. Wage growth and home price appreciation [00:20:16] Comparison of wage growth outpacing home price growth, impacting housing market affordability. Consumer Confidence and Spending [00:21:24] The correlation between consumer confidence and spending during the pandemic, the impact of subsequent waves of COVID, and the role of pent-up consumer demand and government stimulus. Red Flags in Consumer Spending [00:22:25] The disconnect between consumer spending and low confidence scores, the record level of consumer credit card use, and the decrease in personal savings rates. Inflation and the Federal Reserve [00:25:44] The high inflation rate in 40 years, the actions taken by the Federal Reserve to control inflation, the impact on housing costs, and the potential for a recession. Yield Curve Inversion and Recession Predictions [00:31:07] Discussion on the yield curve inversion and its historical correlation with recessions. Impact of Recession on the Housing Market [00:32:04] Exploration of the potential impact of a recession on the housing market. Part Two: State of the Housing Market and Future of Investment Real Estate [00:33:03] Teaser for the next episode, which will analyze the state of the housing market and the future of investment real estate. Resources mentioned: Show Notes: www.GetRichEducation.com/466 Rick Sharga on X (Twitter): @RickSharga Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text ‘FAMILY' to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith's personal Instagram: @keithweinhold Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Today, it's part one of two of my exclusive interview with one of the nation's foremost housing intelligence analysts. How's the condition of today's American consumer? What's the future of inflation, the Fed interest rates? And should you really be concerned about a downturn today on get rich education? Corey Coates (00:00:28) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get rich education. Keith Weinhold (00:00:51) - Welcome from Orange County, Florida, to Orange County, California, and across 188 nations worldwide. You're listening to one America's longest running and most listened to shows on real estate. With nearly nine years of weekly episodes. You're listening to Get Rich Education. I'm your host, Keith Wine expert, housing and mortgage analyst Rick Sugar is back and he is figuratively waiting in the wings. Here to give us an update on the economy shortly. In many nations of the world, if you are born poor, you stay poor. It's really hard to change wealth classes because you can't own anything in so many world places. Keith Weinhold (00:01:33) - If you're born middle class, you also stay middle class. There's no way out of that. Owning real estate is the number one way to move yourself into a different wealth class. Owning your own business is another way, but with owning real estate, it's quite easy to follow a template and do what someone else has already done. Within a proven system. You don't have to have a new out-of-the-box business idea. For example, in the US, if you start collecting assets that pay you each month, you can quickly become upwardly mobile. In America, even if you were born into poverty and have a long line of impoverishment in your family, you can own your own home and that can help you go from poor to middle class. You can add rental properties and go from poor or middle class to wealthy because if you're in the US you are allowed to own things. Yeah, keep accumulating properties and keep getting rent money from tenants. In so many nations of the world. If you come from modest means, you just cannot get dozens of people or hundreds of people to pay you one third of their income every month. Keith Weinhold (00:02:52) - But here you can get all these tenants to pay you one third of their salary in rent so you can close that class divide. It's up to you. That's what makes the US great. You can move into a different wealth class, the GSEs, the government sponsored enterprises. They will even give you backing on a bank loan so that you can do this. They're really encouraging this and enticing you to do this with as little as a 3% down payment on your primary residence or 20% down on rental properties. It's like they're almost forcing you to succeed. And there's even a 1% down program for primary residences now available in some places. So the bank gives you the loan, the tenant pays you the rent, and the government gives you the tax break. Like I say, that right there is using other people's money three ways at the same time, the bank, the tenant and the government, it all sort of falls in your lap if you want it to, but you do have to ask for it and you do have to do some arranging and you need to be diligent and attentive to. Keith Weinhold (00:04:06) - But most Americans, they just aren't wise to this. Now, the real estate market, it has changed from a few years ago. It was spring of 2020 where we had that big inflection point, as you know, because I often discuss it. That was that supply crash. And since that time, home prices have run up faster than rents. But I'd like to give you some broader perspective here. There's something important with real estate investing that you may not have realized coming out of the global financial crisis 2008, 2009, 2010. At 2010, when we really started to lift up out of the rubble because by 2010, property prices were still down low. They were near the rock bottom. They're even lower than replacement costs in a lot of markets, which was artificially low. But see, rents didn't really fall much in the GFC. Rents stayed the same. So you know what happened in 2010 and all the years following it will cash flow began. And that's because all over America you then had these high rents and low purchase prices that had been beaten down by the GFC. Keith Weinhold (00:05:18) - Cash flow like that wasn't really normal, but by now property prices have caught up to rents and even surpassed them. So besides investors being used to low mortgage rates, these ultra low rates, they also got used to this ultra high ratio of rent income to purchase price. That's just not there like it used to be. So today, in more places, you can't expect much of anything for cash flow now with a few years of. Income property ownership. Say if you bought something late this year, a few years later, now you shouldn't count on it. But rents, as we know, historically rise to then start providing you with cash flow to complement the other four ways that you're simultaneously paid. So my point is that today the deals aren't as good as they were ten years ago and five years ago, and that is all part of the provenance and perspective that I'm sharing with you from the real estate investing landscape starting from back around 15 years ago. But today I posit that it is still difficult to find a better place to invest a dollar than with a loan on carefully bought income property. Keith Weinhold (00:06:31) - And I have some really good news for you here. All right. We know higher mortgage rates. They're not just a pain point for first time homebuyers and second time homebuyers for that matter, but they're a pain point for you, the investor. Well, if you didn't already know, we have largely sort of that problem here at Gray. And that is why investors like you are still snapping up rental properties fast. From Marketplace today, owner occupied mortgage rates are about 7% in income. Property rates are about 8%. But because of the strength of our marketplace networks and relationships here we have one new build provider offering a mortgage rate of 5.75%. Yes, they will see that your mortgage rate is bought down to 5.75% for your purchase. Yes, right here in today's environment, another new build investment property provider is offering a buy down to 4.75%. Yes, you heard that right. And we have another builder provider where our investment coaches have been sharing with you a 2.99% seller financing option. So is cash flow back? Yes, a lot of times it is. Keith Weinhold (00:07:53) - The builders know that it's a pain point for buyers and our coaches and I hear a Gary know it too, So we have rubbed salve on the wound here, I suppose. 5.75% interest rates, 4.75 or even 2.99. At times you'll have to use the builders preferred lender to get those terms. Otherwise I like to use Ridge lending Group because they specialize in income property loans. There is even more to it. These builders are in business to move property, so take advantage of it. And besides buying down your mortgage rate for you like that, some are even waiving their property management fee for you for the first year, in addition to buying down the rate and don't know how long all this is going to last. So this could be a really good time for you to contact your investment coach. Your coach will help you shop the marketplace properties, tell you where the real deals are and tell you how to get those improbably low mortgage rates for income properties. Your coach guides you and makes it easy for you If you don't have an investment coach yet, just go to Marketplace slash coach and they're there to help you out. Keith Weinhold (00:09:11) - Hey, it's really great to have the savvy and the experience of Rick Shaka back on the show today. His mind is always in the market. He's often doing these public speaking appearances informing audiences about it. He's been the executive vice president of markets at some of America's leading housing intelligence firms. We have so much to discuss that Today's episode is part one of two back to back episodes with Rick. This week, we'll discuss the direction of the economy. Next week, we'll go deep on the housing market. But even our discussion on the economy today is probably going to be viewed through the lens of having real estate investors in mind. So this intelligence is fresh and it is timely here in fall of 2023. But even if you're listening to this, a decade from now, in 2033, you are going to get lessons for all time. It's the economy this week and the real estate market next week. It could be a day or two until we have today's episode on Get Rich Education YouTube. But you can watch us there as well if you want the visuals and charts that complement our discussion. Keith Weinhold (00:10:19) - Many of the sources that he cites today will be from Trading economics in the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. What's the present and future of the economy, especially as it pertains to real estate investor interest with Rick and I straight ahead. I'm Keith Reinhold in this is get rich education. Jerry listeners can't stop talking about their service from Ridge Lending Group and MLS 42056. They've provided our tribe with more lows than anyone. They're truly a top lender for beginners and veterans. It's where I go to get my own loans for single family rental property up to four Plex's So start your prequalification and you can chat with President Charlie Ridge personally, though, even deliver your custom plan for growing your real estate portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending Group. You know, I'll just tell you for the most passive part of my real estate investing personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in. Returns are better than a bank savings account up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25. Keith Weinhold (00:11:31) - K. You don't even need to be accredited. For some of them, it's all backed by real estate and I kind of love how the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains and your W-2 jobs income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 668660, and this isn't a solicitation If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to 66866. This is real estate investment cogeneration. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Reinhold and don't quit your day dream. And you're going to get a fantastic market update today. And you're also going to learn lessons even if you're consuming this 5 or 10 years from now. Our expert guest was first with us here six months ago. He's been the executive VP of markets at some of America's leading housing intelligence firms. He was twice named to the Inman News Inman 100 most influential real estate leaders. Keith Weinhold (00:12:54) - He is one of the country's most frequently quoted sources on real estate, mortgage and foreclosure markets. You've seen him seemingly everywhere CNBC, CBS News, NBC News, CNN, ABC News, Fox, Bloomberg in NPR got about just every letter of the alphabet in there on that one. Today, he's the founder and CEO of J. Patrick Company. They're a market intelligence firm for the real estate and mortgage markets. He has 20 plus years of experience in those industries. Hey, welcome back to Rick Saga. Thank you for having me, Keith. Happy to be here. It's an interesting time. Rick. I think some people are rather confused because you have such unusually low housing supply still. You have higher mortgage rates and we're careful not to call them high mortgage rates because we know historically they're pretty normal. And you have what I would characterize is a rather distinct regional variation in home price appreciation. So we're going to get some clarity today from that confusion. Now, if you're listening on audio only, Rick will describe the charts in a way that gives you a good experience. Keith Weinhold (00:14:03) - If you're watching this on YouTube, go ahead and give us a like. So we really anticipate, Rick, your take on both the broader economy first and then the real estate market. That's exactly what we're going to go over today. And before we get started, I think you said something I'd like to emphasize a little bit. And this is something we talked about. I believe the last time we chatted is I've been saying all along that we were not going to see a housing market crash. We were going to see a correction of sorts and that the correction was going to be very, very localized. That the results you see in coastal California, in the Pacific Northwest, in markets that were overpriced, like Boise and Salt Lake City and Phoenix and Austin, we're going to be very different than what you saw on the East Coast, particularly the southeastern states, places like Tennessee and Florida and the Carolinas and virtually everywhere else in Texas other than Austin. So it's really worked out that way. There are some markets where we're seeing double digit price declines and other markets where prices continue to go up. Keith Weinhold (00:15:05) - And we'll get into the national trends in a minute. But thought that was a really important point. Keith Yeah, Thank you for adding that, at least for a while there. Rick. It was one of the most unusual home price appreciation maps I have ever seen. There were some exceptions, but generally the nation east of the Mississippi River, you had rising home prices and recently west of the Mississippi River, you had falling home prices like a river divided it. It was really weird. To your point, it's normalized a little bit. I live in California. Speaking of weird and the pricing out here, the month over month prices and year over year prices went down for the first time in quite a while for about four consecutive months before normalizing in July. Now, even within California, you see different price trends depending on where you are in the state. But the point is really important for investors to remember that you almost threw the national numbers out, that they're important from a trend perspective, but you really need to become an expert in whatever market you happen to be investing in because the local conditions really determine how successful you're going to be. Keith Weinhold (00:16:09) - Like the national outdoor temperature average is pretty useless, almost somewhat like the national home price average is. I guess the national home price average Still has some meaning to it though. Yeah, and you don't find quite as much variation in home price trends as you do in temperatures, but your points well taken. And again, it's important to be looking for economic trends. It's important to be looking for housing market trends and the markets that you're interested in investing in because that makes all the difference. So we're just going to talk about the general economic landscape of the United States, and then we're going to pivot into real estate and just what's going on with the housing market and getting the latest there. Yeah, why don't we jump right into it at this point, Keith, We're going to do a fall update on the housing market for this year. We're going to take a look at the economy. We'll take a look at what's going on in housing. I have a few slides to share on what's going on to delinquencies and defaults because I know a lot of investors are interested in foreclosure properties. Keith Weinhold (00:17:11) - And then we'll have some closing thoughts and then you can chat a little bit more about some of the observations we're making in the market today. Let's start talking about that economy, including that part where some people anymore, year after year, they're always predicting this recession that never quite seems to happen. Well, we have predictions of a recession that are very much like predictions of a housing crash. And if you keep predicting that terrible thing long enough, someday you'll probably be right. It'll be right eventually. Just like a broken clock is right. Broken clock. It's right twice a day. So the GDP, the gross domestic product is the way that that most economists measure the strength of the economy. And the second quarter, this number was just adjusted downward a little bit, but we still had over 2% growth for the second quarter of 2023. That was a higher number than most economists had forecast. It was certainly a higher number than what the Federal Reserve was expecting. But it really shows you the strength of the US consumer. Keith Weinhold (00:18:09) - A lot of people probably don't realize that almost two thirds of the GDP is comprised of consumer spending. There's other factors that go into it business spending, government spending, productivity, trade and the like. But two thirds of it is consumer spending. So when you see the GDP showing strong numbers, it typically means that the consumer is doing pretty well. And that's an important consideration as we move forward. Yeah, that's right. One of those reasons consumers are spending is because we're in this economy where pretty much if you want to have a job, then you've got a job. Yeah. The headlines read about tech companies doing layoffs and mortgage companies doing layoffs. Bottom line is the most recent unemployment numbers we saw were 3.8%. I think we're getting a little spoiled by some of these low unemployment rates because people forget historically, anytime you were under 5% unemployment, it was considered full employment. And the fact of the matter is there's still more jobs open than there are people looking for work. There's about 9.5 million open jobs in about 6 million people who are looking for work. Keith Weinhold (00:19:11) - So employers have to compete with each other for those employees. And so these low unemployment levels are actually one of the things that's causing wages to go up, which continues to stoke inflation when there are more open jobs than there even are workers that makes employers want to entice employees with higher pay. Yeah, they need to do that to keep employees on the payrolls and they need to do that to hire new employees. So whether you look at hourly wages, which at the moment are up around 28, $29 an hour, or you're looking at annual wage growth, which is running around 4 to 5% a year. Wages are very strong right now. And this is the first time, Keith, in many years that I've been able to tell people that wage growth actually is running higher than home price appreciation for well over a decade. We saw home prices appreciate much more rapidly than we saw wages. And this is the first time in a while where that situation has been reversed. That's a really interesting takeaway, Rick. Keith Weinhold (00:20:16) - Wage growth that's outstripping home price growth and that's going to be important going forward because one of the big headwinds that the housing market faces today is affordability. Despite what we just talked about, home prices nationally are running at all time high levels. We're going to talk about the cost of financing be much higher than it was just a year ago. And wage growth is the one positive in that category. As wages continue to grow and if home prices settled out a little bit, affordability ultimately will be a little bit better for potential homebuyers. Average wages at 28 to $29 an hour, Americans are basically making a dollar every two minutes now yet could be worse. And that varies, again, market to market, shock to job, but it shows you what's going on on average, partly because of this, consumer spending continues to be very strong. But one of the the real unusual situations we're looking at today is that there's usually a direct correlation between consumer confidence and consumer spending. And the more confident consumers feel about things, the more willing they are to spend money, particularly on big ticket items like cars and houses. Keith Weinhold (00:21:24) - And that was all true. And the correlation held true until we hit the pandemic. And as we started to come out of the first wave of Covid, you saw consumer confidence start to go up, but then it came back down as we had subsequent waves of Covid. Then we had the war in Ukraine that we had high inflation and all sorts of other odds and ends. And consumer confidence has really never recovered back to pre-pandemic levels while consumer spending has continued to go up. And part of that is pent up consumer demand. We still hear people talking about supply chain delays, trying to order appliances and the like and having to wait for months. Part of it is all the stimulus money that the government poured into the economy during the pandemic and probably overstimulated the economy to a certain extent. One of my economist friends refers to what the government did in terms of stimulus, is trying to stuff $15 trillion into a $3 trillion hole. And the numbers may be a little lost. But think the visuals is image is kind of good. Keith Weinhold (00:22:25) - But this disconnect we're seeing between. How much money consumers are spending and their relative low confidence scores is a red flag of sorts in a couple of ways. It's a red flag, among other ways, in that if consumer confidence doesn't recover, consumers ultimately could pull back on spending, and that really could ultimately lead us into a recession. Consumer spending outpacing consumer confidence. There are other two other red flags with this consumer spending, and we'll cover them pretty quickly. What is that? Consumer credit card use is at an all time high in the last quarter. For the first time ever, consumer credit card use topped $1 trillion. And the concern here is that consumers in a high cost of living environment may be tapping into credit cards to make ends meet. That's not a good scenario and ultimately is not a scenario that would end well. So part of what we're seeing kind of backstopping or enabling consumer spending is an increased amount of credit card use. The other red flag, Keith, is that consumer personal savings rates have gone down below historic averages. Keith Weinhold (00:23:33) - So we hit an all time high in savings rates during the pandemic when the government sent out stimulus checks and unemployment benefits were enhanced. And candidly, there wasn't a lot consumers could buy. So they socked away a lot of this money post-pandemic. We saw savings rates drop down to almost historically low levels and they haven't come back much up from that. So the two red flags that we really are looking at right now, that could be indicators of trouble ahead for the economy are record level credit card use and lower than average savings rates. And again, both of those suggest that families who are sort of on the margins financially might be tapping into credit cards, might be tapping into their savings to make ends meet. In fact, I read some recent research that suggests that on average, most households have higher credit card debt than they have savings. It's not a great scenario, and this is consistent with many sources citing the fact that between 60 and 70% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck. Yeah, and it almost doesn't matter how high that paycheck is, which is a little bit counterintuitive. Keith Weinhold (00:24:43) - I remember doing an interview on CNN years ago when Evander Holyfield mansion was being foreclosed on. It was a $30 million mansion outside of Georgia with two bowling alleys, swimming pool, indoor boxing rinks, basketball courts, the whole nine yards. I had to explain to the reporter that just because you're wealthy doesn't mean you're not living paycheck to paycheck. It's just sometimes there's more zeros to the left of the decimal point. Their cost of living tends to be much higher. So expenses are keeping up with income. All right, Expenses keep up with income. What's been going on in terms of consumer spending, in terms of wage growth, in terms of the GDP being strong has all contributed to inflation. And we had the highest inflation rate in 40 years. Not too long ago, we were up over 9% inflation year over year. And the Federal Reserve has taken very aggressive actions to try and get inflation under control. The primary tool they use is raising the Fed funds rate, which is basically what sets the rates on all short term interest. Keith Weinhold (00:25:44) - And they've raised it more rapidly and higher than it pretty much any time in history. If you go back to the 80s, they actually raised the Fed funds rate higher because inflation was completely out of control then, but not as quickly as they did this time. So typically what you see is something more like what the Fed did say back in the 2015, 2016 period, where inflation ticked up a little bit. So they raise the Fed funds rate a little and they waited a while to see what kind of impact it would have. Then they raise it a little bit more and it's kind of a step by step process until they feel that inflation is peaked and they can then drop off the Fed funds rate. This time they raised it at higher increments they'd ever done before and much more rapidly. The good news is it does seem to be having its effect. The most recent inflation numbers are around 3% year over year, which is close to the Fed's target rate of 2% year over year. And a lot of the inflation rate that is reported on is housing costs. Keith Weinhold (00:26:42) - And most of the housing costs are actually rental rates or what the Fed refers to is the rental equivalency. If you have a mortgage. And what we have seen is rental rates have gone back down from ridiculously high, asking prices. A year or so ago, it wasn't unusual to see an asking rent 15% higher than the prior rent rate. And that's in a market where the usual increase is 1 to 4%. So it was just completely off the charts. Those numbers have all come back to normal. And in some markets, we're actually seeing slight declines in year over year rental asking prices. The reason the Ric is bringing rents into the inflation discussion here is because rent and something called owners equivalent rent are a substantial contributor to the. They comprise more than a third of the CPI basket. Exactly right, Keith. And thank you for reminding me why I started this dissertation. The fact is that that decrease in rental costs has not hit the Fed's inflation numbers yet. There's about a full year lag in the housing numbers that the Fed uses in its CPI analysis and what's going on in the real market. Keith Weinhold (00:27:52) - So if the Federal Reserve does nothing else, these housing costs get caught up. We will see inflation come down a little bit more. A lot of us are hoping that the Fed is done with its increases because of what's happened historically. Historically speaking, if you go all the way back to World War Two, the Federal Reserve not counting this cycle, has raised the Fed funds rate 11 times to get inflation under control. Eight of those times it's waited a little bit too long or it's waited for inflation until inflation got too high and it was a little bit too sticky and they had to overcorrect. And that ultimately steered us into a recession. There were three times once in the 60s, once in the 80s and once in the 90s where the Fed acted proactively to try and get inflation under control. And in those three cases, they were able to steer us into a soft landing and avoid a recession. In this case, they've already admitted they waited too long. They admitted that inflation got much higher than they expected. Keith Weinhold (00:28:48) - It certainly wasn't as transitory as they'd hoped. So the likelihood is that they've already overcorrected and we will see something of a recession. They may get lucky this time. They may have actually walked the tightrope correctly. And assuming they don't continue with this aggressive course of action, they may have actually managed to work us into a soft landing this time. Yeah, and that is a terrific history lesson that you gave us, Rick. I often like to tell my audience about when you want to predict the future direction of something. I'd like to take history over hunches. It's easy to have a hunch that something's going to go a certain direction. But you look at history. You talked about basically how the Fed was late to identify inflation because they had called it transitory for a while, so they started hiking too late. Now, maybe they've overhyped or maybe they haven't. But if they have, maybe they will need to lower them too quickly. If they don't have that desired soft landing. The economists that follow right now are split about 5050 on whether we'll actually see a recession coming out of this cycle. Keith Weinhold (00:29:51) - It was more like 8020, looking for a recession just a few months ago. Right. The economy is slowing a little bit. The last jobs report had about 187,000 jobs created, which was a good number, but it was lower than what we've seen in recent reports. So the economy slowing down, but not going to full stop or going into negative terms is an indication that maybe we do escape a recession. Good news, by the way, is even if we do have a recession, the rest of the economic measures that you look at are also strong, that it's very likely it would be a very short and very mild recession, and unemployment probably wouldn't get over about four and a half or 5%. So that's something to keep in mind as you go forward. You talked about history, Keith. I big on that too, history as a predictor of what might happen. Yeah. The other thing that points to a recession is something called a yield curve inversion. And without getting too inside baseball on people, people track the yield on a ten year US Treasury and they track the yield on a two year US Treasury and typically your yield on a short investment like a two year Treasury is lower than your yield on a ten year or longer investment because there's more risk involved in the longer time period and so forth and so on. Keith Weinhold (00:31:07) - Every now and then, the bond market senses a disruption in the force. Darth Vader is looming over the market and you see these things switch places and suddenly the yield on a ten year US Treasury is lower than the yield on a two year US Treasury, and that's called a yield curve inversion. Now yield curve inversion doesn't cause a recession, but the last seven times we've had one, it's correctly predicted that a recession was coming and this current period we're in is one of the longer and deeper inversions that we've ever seen. So again, if you look at history as a predictor of the future, this yield curve inversion points toward us having a recession at some point before we get through the cycle. And I know yield curves can confuse a lot of people. If you're the listener or the viewer here, make a very long term loan to a friend, well, you'd want to get compensated with a higher interest rate for that higher risk amount than if you made a short term loan to a friend and he was paying you back. Keith Weinhold (00:32:04) - Tomorrow, you might not charge him much of any interest at all because there's more certainty that you're going to get paid back. But that condition has been inverted, where when you make the long loan to the buddy, you're compensated with a lower interest rate yield. That is what is known as a yield curve inversion. Yeah. And I think yield curve throws people off. If you just think of it in terms of the yields, that probably makes it simpler. But again, if you're looking at recession predictors, these are the two. That I typically look at. And that's kind of important to know if you're going to be investing in the housing market because recessions can have an impact on the housing market. Rick thinks there's a likelihood that the Fed has already overcorrected with too many interest rate increases. If we do have a recession, Rick believes that it's most likely to be mild without many layoffs. Rick and I, we actually seem to agree on a lot of things. We see a lot of things the same way. Keith Weinhold (00:33:03) - Maybe it would be more interesting for you if we disagreed a bit more to stay up on the latest moves in the real estate market. You can follow Rick Saga on X, formerly known as Twitter. His handle there is simply Rick Saga. Well, Rick made a Darth Vader reference there. And, you know, much like the original Star Wars movie had the sequel, which was called The Empire Strikes Back. You know, that was one sequel that some people liked more than the original. And that is atypical because usually people like the original more. But The Empire Strikes Back was a fantastic sequel, and I think that could happen here next week. Rick and I are back together for part two of two, the sequel. We are probably going to analyze and break down the state of the housing market and the future of investment real estate. And we should go on for twice as long on that as we did for today on the economy. So therefore, next week is kind of like the Empire Strikes Back, although I don't expect that next week Darth Vader is going to cut off Luke Skywalker's hand like what happened in the movie. Keith Weinhold (00:34:10) - That just wouldn't be proper. And we're clearly not into improprieties around here. Darth Vader (00:34:18) - You are unwise to lower your defenses. Keith Weinhold (00:34:23) - Oh, Luke lost his hand this week. Not next week. Well, that's not even the scene where Luke loses his hand, But, hey, that totally worked. So. Getting back to real estate here, you need properties to be an investor. The builders know that higher mortgage rates are a pain point for buyers. Our coaches and I hear a know it too. So we have. Yes. Rubbed salve on the wound 5.75% interest rates, 4.75% or even 2.99%. And at times you're going to have to use the builder's preferred lender in order to get those terms. But really some remarkable Bibles that we've negotiated for you. So take advantage of it since I don't know how long that is going to be around. In fact, I'll even bring up those rate by down terms to Rick Saga next week and get his take to help you out on the cash flow side. We also have access to properties that would make good mid term corporate rentals in the southeastern US midterm rentals. Keith Weinhold (00:35:27) - They often have higher cash flow than a traditional long term unfurnished rental. For any and all of that, contact your investment coach, you're probably working with one by now. They'll help you shop the marketplace properties, tell you where the real deals are and tell you how to get those improbably low mortgage rates for income properties. Your coach guides you and makes it easy for you If you don't have an investment coach yet, just go to Marketplace. Com slash coach and they're there to help you out until next week I'm your host Keith Winfield. Don't quit your Adrian. Speaker 4 (00:36:08) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of Get Rich Education LLC exclusively. Keith Weinhold (00:36:36) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.