Adam C Smith podcast appearances and mentions

#133 Making Models More Efficient & Flexible, with Sean Pinkney & Adrian Seyboldt

Play Episode Listen Later May 28, 2025 72:12 Transcription Available

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!Intro to Bayes Course (first 2 lessons free)Advanced Regression Course (first 2 lessons free)Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work!Visit our Patreon page to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;) Takeaways:Zero Sum constraints allow for better sampling and estimation in hierarchical models.Understanding the difference between population and sample means is crucial.A library for zero-sum normal effects would be beneficial.Practical solutions can yield decent predictions even with limitations.Cholesky parameterization can be adapted for positive correlation matrices.Understanding the geometry of sampling spaces is crucial.The relationship between eigenvalues and sampling is complex.Collaboration and sharing knowledge enhance research outcomes.Innovative approaches can simplify complex statistical problems.Chapters:03:35 Sean Pinkney's Journey to Bayesian Modeling11:21 The Zero-Sum Normal Project Explained18:52 Technical Insights on Zero-Sum Constraints32:04 Handling New Elements in Bayesian Models36:19 Understanding Population Parameters and Predictions49:11 Exploring Flexible Cholesky Parameterization01:07:23 Closing Thoughts and Future DirectionsThank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar, Matt Rosinski, Bart Trudeau, Luis Fonseca, Dante Gates, Matt Niccolls, Maksim Kuznecov, Michael Thomas, Luke Gorrie, Cory Kiser, Julio, Edvin Saveljev, Frederick Ayala, Jeffrey Powell, Gal Kampel, Adan Romero, Will Geary, Blake Walters, Jonathan Morgan, Francesco Madrisotti, Ivy Huang, Gary...

#131 Decision-Making Under High Uncertainty, with Luke Bornn

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 30, 2025 91:46 Transcription Available

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!Intro to Bayes Course (first 2 lessons free)Advanced Regression Course (first 2 lessons free)Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work!Visit our Patreon page to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar, Matt Rosinski, Bart Trudeau, Luis Fonseca, Dante Gates, Matt Niccolls, Maksim Kuznecov, Michael Thomas, Luke Gorrie, Cory Kiser, Julio, Edvin Saveljev, Frederick Ayala, Jeffrey Powell, Gal Kampel, Adan Romero, Will Geary, Blake Walters, Jonathan Morgan, Francesco Madrisotti, Ivy Huang, Gary Clarke, Robert Flannery, Rasmus Hindström, Stefan, Corey Abshire, Mike Loncaric, David McCormick, Ronald Legere, Sergio Dolia, Michael Cao, Yiğit Aşık and Suyog Chandramouli.Takeaways:Player tracking data revolutionized sports analytics.Decision-making in sports involves managing uncertainty and budget constraints.Luke emphasizes the importance of portfolio optimization in team management.Clubs with high budgets can afford inefficiencies in player acquisition.Statistical methods provide a probabilistic approach to player value.Removing human bias is crucial in sports decision-making.Understanding player performance distributions aids in contract decisions.The goal is to maximize performance value per dollar spent.Model validation in sports requires focusing on edge cases.

#130 The Real-World Impact of Epidemiological Models, with Adam Kucharski

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 16, 2025 69:05 Transcription Available

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!Intro to Bayes Course (first 2 lessons free)Advanced Regression Course (first 2 lessons free)Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work!Visit our Patreon page to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar, Matt Rosinski, Bart Trudeau, Luis Fonseca, Dante Gates, Matt Niccolls, Maksim Kuznecov, Michael Thomas, Luke Gorrie, Cory Kiser, Julio, Edvin Saveljev, Frederick Ayala, Jeffrey Powell, Gal Kampel, Adan Romero, Will Geary, Blake Walters, Jonathan Morgan, Francesco Madrisotti, Ivy Huang, Gary Clarke, Robert Flannery, Rasmus Hindström, Stefan, Corey Abshire, Mike Loncaric, David McCormick, Ronald Legere, Sergio Dolia, Michael Cao, Yiğit Aşık and Suyog Chandramouli.Takeaways:Epidemiology requires a blend of mathematical and statistical understanding.Models are essential for informing public health decisions during epidemics.The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of rapid modeling.Misconceptions about data can lead to misunderstandings in public health.Effective communication is crucial for conveying complex epidemiological concepts.Epidemic thinking can be applied to various fields, including marketing and finance.Public health policies should be informed by robust modeling and data analysis.Automation can help streamline data analysis in epidemic response.Understanding the limitations of models...

#127 Saving Sharks... with Python, Causal Inference and Aaron MacNeil

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 5, 2025 64:08 Transcription Available

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!Intro to Bayes Course (first 2 lessons free)Advanced Regression Course (first 2 lessons free)Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work!Visit our Patreon page to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar, Matt Rosinski, Bart Trudeau, Luis Fonseca, Dante Gates, Matt Niccolls, Maksim Kuznecov, Michael Thomas, Luke Gorrie, Cory Kiser, Julio, Edvin Saveljev, Frederick Ayala, Jeffrey Powell, Gal Kampel, Adan Romero, Will Geary, Blake Walters, Jonathan Morgan, Francesco Madrisotti, Ivy Huang, Gary Clarke, Robert Flannery, Rasmus Hindström, Stefan, Corey Abshire, Mike Loncaric, David McCormick, Ronald Legere, Sergio Dolia and Michael Cao.Takeaways:Sharks play a crucial role in maintaining healthy ocean ecosystems.Bayesian statistics are particularly useful in data-poor environments like ecology.Teaching Bayesian statistics requires a shift in mindset from traditional statistical methods.The shark meat trade is significant and often overlooked.Ray meat trade is as large as shark meat trade, with specific markets dominating.Understanding the ecological roles of species is essential for effective conservation.Causal language is important in ecological research and should be encouraged.Evidence-driven decision-making is crucial in balancing human and ecological needs.Expert opinions are...

#126 MMM, CLV & Bayesian Marketing Analytics, with Will Dean

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 19, 2025 54:47 Transcription Available

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!Intro to Bayes Course (first 2 lessons free)Advanced Regression Course (first 2 lessons free)Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work!Visit our Patreon page to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Takeaways:Marketing analytics is crucial for understanding customer behavior.PyMC Marketing offers tools for customer lifetime value analysis.Media mix modeling helps allocate marketing spend effectively.Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) models are essential for understanding long-term customer behavior.Productionizing models is essential for real-world applications.Productionizing models involves challenges like model artifact storage and version control.MLflow integration enhances model tracking and management.The open-source community fosters collaboration and innovation.Understanding time series is vital in marketing analytics.Continuous learning is key in the evolving field of data science.Chapters:00:00 Introduction to Will Dean and His Work10:48 Diving into PyMC Marketing17:10 Understanding Media Mix Modeling25:54 Challenges in Productionizing Models35:27 Exploring Customer Lifetime Value Models44:10 Learning and Development in Data ScienceThank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz,...

#125 Bayesian Sports Analytics & The Future of PyMC, with Chris Fonnesbeck

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 5, 2025 58:15 Transcription Available

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!Intro to Bayes Course (first 2 lessons free)Advanced Regression Course (first 2 lessons free)Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work!Visit our Patreon page to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar, Matt Rosinski, Bart Trudeau, Luis Fonseca, Dante Gates, Matt Niccolls, Maksim Kuznecov, Michael Thomas, Luke Gorrie, Cory Kiser, Julio, Edvin Saveljev, Frederick Ayala, Jeffrey Powell, Gal Kampel, Adan Romero, Will Geary, Blake Walters, Jonathan Morgan, Francesco Madrisotti, Ivy Huang, Gary Clarke, Robert Flannery, Rasmus Hindström, Stefan, Corey Abshire and Mike Loncaric.Takeaways:The evolution of sports modeling is tied to the availability of high-frequency data.Bayesian methods are valuable in handling messy, hierarchical data.Communication between data scientists and decision-makers is crucial for effective model use.Models are often wrong, and learning from mistakes is part of the process.Simplicity in models can sometimes yield better results than complexity.The integration of analytics in sports is still developing, with opportunities in various sports.Transparency in research and development teams enhances decision-making.Understanding uncertainty in models is essential for informed decisions.The balance between point estimates and full distributions is a...

#119 Causal Inference, Fiction Writing and Career Changes, with Robert Kubinec

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 13, 2024 85:01 Transcription Available

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meOur theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work!Visit our Patreon page to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Takeaways:Bob's research focuses on corruption and political economy.Measuring corruption is challenging due to the unobservable nature of the behavior.The challenge of studying corruption lies in obtaining honest data.Innovative survey techniques, like randomized response, can help gather sensitive data.Non-traditional backgrounds can enhance statistical research perspectives.Bayesian methods are particularly useful for estimating latent variables.Bayesian methods shine in situations with prior information.Expert surveys can help estimate uncertain outcomes effectively.Bob's novel, 'The Bayesian Heatman,' explores academia through a fictional lens.Writing fiction can enhance academic writing skills and creativity.The importance of community in statistics is emphasized, especially in the Stan community.Real-time online surveys could revolutionize data collection in social science.Chapters:00:00 Introduction to Bayesian Statistics and Bob Kubinec06:01 Bob's Academic Journey and Research Focus12:40 Measuring Corruption: Challenges and Methods18:54 Transition from Government to Academia26:41 The Influence of Non-Traditional Backgrounds in Statistics34:51 Bayesian Methods in Political Science Research42:08 Bayesian Methods in COVID Measurement51:12 The Journey of Writing a Novel01:00:24 The Intersection of Fiction and AcademiaThank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell,...

#117 Unveiling the Power of Bayesian Experimental Design, with Desi Ivanova

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 15, 2024 73:12 Transcription Available

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meOur theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work!Visit our Patreon page to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Takeaways:Designing experiments is about optimal data gathering.The optimal design maximizes the amount of information.The best experiment reduces uncertainty the most.Computational challenges limit the feasibility of BED in practice.Amortized Bayesian inference can speed up computations.A good underlying model is crucial for effective BED.Adaptive experiments are more complex than static ones.The future of BED is promising with advancements in AI.Chapters:00:00 Introduction to Bayesian Experimental Design07:51 Understanding Bayesian Experimental Design19:58 Computational Challenges in Bayesian Experimental Design28:47 Innovations in Bayesian Experimental Design40:43 Practical Applications of Bayesian Experimental Design52:12 Future of Bayesian Experimental Design01:01:17 Real-World Applications and ImpactThank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar, Matt Rosinski, Bart Trudeau, Luis Fonseca, Dante Gates, Matt Niccolls, Maksim Kuznecov,...

#114 From the Field to the Lab – A Journey in Baseball Science, with Jacob Buffa

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 5, 2024 61:32 Transcription Available

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meOur theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work!Visit our Patreon page to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Takeaways:Education and visual communication are key in helping athletes understand the impact of nutrition on performance.Bayesian statistics are used to analyze player performance and injury risk.Integrating diverse data sources is a challenge but can provide valuable insights.Understanding the specific needs and characteristics of athletes is crucial in conditioning and injury prevention. The application of Bayesian statistics in baseball science requires experts in Bayesian methods.Traditional statistical methods taught in sports science programs are limited.Communicating complex statistical concepts, such as Bayesian analysis, to coaches and players is crucial.Conveying uncertainties and limitations of the models is essential for effective utilization.Emerging trends in baseball science include the use of biomechanical information and computer vision algorithms.Improving player performance and injury prevention are key goals for the future of baseball science.Chapters:00:00 The Role of Nutrition and Conditioning05:46 Analyzing Player Performance and Managing Injury Risks12:13 Educating Athletes on Dietary Choices18:02 Emerging Trends in Baseball Science29:49 Hierarchical Models and Player Analysis36:03 Challenges of Working with Limited Data39:49 Effective Communication of Statistical Concepts47:59 Future Trends: Biomechanical Data Analysis and Computer Vision AlgorithmsThank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde,...

#111 Nerdinsights from the Football Field, with Patrick Ward

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 24, 2024 85:43 Transcription Available

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meOur theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work!Visit our Patreon page to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Takeaways:Communicating Bayesian concepts to non-technical audiences in sports analytics can be challenging, but it is important to provide clear explanations and address limitations.Understanding the model and its assumptions is crucial for effective communication and decision-making.Involving domain experts, such as scouts and coaches, can provide valuable insights and improve the model's relevance and usefulness.Customizing the model to align with the specific needs and questions of the stakeholders is essential for successful implementation. Understanding the needs of decision-makers is crucial for effectively communicating and utilizing models in sports analytics.Predicting the impact of training loads on athletes' well-being and performance is a challenging frontier in sports analytics.Identifying discrete events in team sports data is essential for analysis and development of models.Chapters:00:00 Bayesian Statistics in Sports Analytics18:29 Applying Bayesian Stats in Analyzing Player Performance and Injury Risk36:21 Challenges in Communicating Bayesian Concepts to Non-Statistical Decision-Makers41:04 Understanding Model Behavior and Validation through Simulations43:09 Applying Bayesian Methods in Sports Analytics48:03 Clarifying Questions and Utilizing Frameworks53:41 Effective Communication of Statistical Concepts57:50 Integrating Domain Expertise with Statistical Models01:13:43 The Importance of Good Data01:18:11 The Future of Sports AnalyticsThank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew...

#110 Unpacking Bayesian Methods in AI with Sam Duffield

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 10, 2024 72:27 Transcription Available

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meOur theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work!Visit our Patreon page to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Takeaways:Use mini-batch methods to efficiently process large datasets within Bayesian frameworks in enterprise AI applications.Apply approximate inference techniques, like stochastic gradient MCMC and Laplace approximation, to optimize Bayesian analysis in practical settings.Explore thermodynamic computing to significantly speed up Bayesian computations, enhancing model efficiency and scalability.Leverage the Posteriors python package for flexible and integrated Bayesian analysis in modern machine learning workflows.Overcome challenges in Bayesian inference by simplifying complex concepts for non-expert audiences, ensuring the practical application of statistical models.Address the intricacies of model assumptions and communicate effectively to non-technical stakeholders to enhance decision-making processes.Chapters:00:00 Introduction to Large-Scale Machine Learning11:26 Scalable and Flexible Bayesian Inference with Posteriors25:56 The Role of Temperature in Bayesian Models32:30 Stochastic Gradient MCMC for Large Datasets36:12 Introducing Posteriors: Bayesian Inference in Machine Learning41:22 Uncertainty Quantification and Improved Predictions52:05 Supporting New Algorithms and Arbitrary Likelihoods59:16 Thermodynamic Computing01:06:22 Decoupling Model Specification, Data Generation, and InferenceThank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal

#109 Prior Sensitivity Analysis, Overfitting & Model Selection, with Sonja Winter

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 25, 2024 70:50 Transcription Available

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meOur theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work !Visit our Patreon page to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)TakeawaysBayesian methods align better with researchers' intuitive understanding of research questions and provide more tools to evaluate and understand models.Prior sensitivity analysis is crucial for understanding the robustness of findings to changes in priors and helps in contextualizing research findings.Bayesian methods offer an elegant and efficient way to handle missing data in longitudinal studies, providing more flexibility and information for researchers.Fit indices in Bayesian model selection are effective in detecting underfitting but may struggle to detect overfitting, highlighting the need for caution in model complexity.Bayesian methods have the potential to revolutionize educational research by addressing the challenges of small samples, complex nesting structures, and longitudinal data. Posterior predictive checks are valuable for model evaluation and selection.Chapters00:00 The Power and Importance of Priors09:29 Updating Beliefs and Choosing Reasonable Priors16:08 Assessing Robustness with Prior Sensitivity Analysis34:53 Aligning Bayesian Methods with Researchers' Thinking37:10 Detecting Overfitting in SEM43:48 Evaluating Model Fit with Posterior Predictive Checks47:44 Teaching Bayesian Methods 54:07 Future Developments in Bayesian StatisticsThank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi...

power model mentorship researchers selection casper rapha proudly bruin bayesian cameron smith posterior mega ran james thompson arkady future developments james wade paul cox mc lars baba brinkman rick anderson robin taylor overfitting patrick kelley andreas kr sensitivity analysis aubrey clayton adam c smith

#108 Modeling Sports & Extracting Player Values, with Paul Sabin

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 14, 2024 78:04 Transcription Available

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meFolks, you may know it by now: I'm a huge sports fan! So needless to say that this episode was like being in a candy store for me. Paul Sabin is so knowledgeable that this conversation was an absolute blast for me!In it, Paul discusses his experience with non-stats stakeholders in sports analytics and the challenges of convincing them to adopt evidence-based decisions. He also explains his soccer power ratings and projections model, which uses a Bayesian approach and expected goals, as well as the importance of understanding player value in difficult-to-measure positions, and the need for more accessible and digestible sports analytics for fans. We also touch on the impact of budget on team performance in American sports and the use of plus-minus models in basketball and American football.Paul is a Senior Fellow at The Wharton Sports Analytics & Business Initiative and a Lecturer in the Department of Statistics and Data Science at The Wharton School of The University of Pennsylvania. He has spent his entire career as a sports analytics professional, teaching and leading sports analytics research projects.Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar, Matt Rosinski, Bart Trudeau, Luis Fonseca, Dante Gates, Matt Niccolls, Maksim Kuznecov, Michael Thomas, Luke Gorrie, Cory Kiser, Julio, Edvin Saveljev, Frederick Ayala, Jeffrey Powell, Gal Kampel, Adan Romero, Will Geary and Blake Walters.Visit

#107 Amortized Bayesian Inference with Deep Neural Networks, with Marvin Schmitt

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later May 29, 2024 81:37 Transcription Available

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meIn this episode, Marvin Schmitt introduces the concept of amortized Bayesian inference, where the upfront training phase of a neural network is followed by fast posterior inference.Marvin will guide us through this new concept, discussing his work in probabilistic machine learning and uncertainty quantification, using Bayesian inference with deep neural networks. He also introduces BaseFlow, a Python library for amortized Bayesian workflows, and discusses its use cases in various fields, while also touching on the concept of deep fusion and its relation to multimodal simulation-based inference.A PhD student in computer science at the University of Stuttgart, Marvin is supervised by two LBS guests you surely know — Paul Bürkner and Aki Vehtari. Marvin's research combines deep learning and statistics, to make Bayesian inference fast and trustworthy. In his free time, Marvin enjoys board games and is a passionate guitar player.Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar, Matt Rosinski, Bart Trudeau, Luis Fonseca, Dante Gates, Matt Niccolls, Maksim Kuznecov, Michael Thomas, Luke Gorrie, Cory Kiser, Julio, Edvin Saveljev, Frederick Ayala, Jeffrey Powell, Gal Kampel, Adan Romero, Will Geary and Blake Walters.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Takeaways:Amortized Bayesian inference...

#106 Active Statistics, Two Truths & a Lie, with Andrew Gelman

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later May 16, 2024 76:47 Transcription Available

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meIf there is one guest I don't need to introduce, it's mister Andrew Gelman. So… I won't! I will refer you back to his two previous appearances on the show though, because learning from Andrew is always a pleasure. So go ahead and listen to episodes 20 and 27.In this episode, Andrew and I discuss his new book, Active Statistics, which focuses on teaching and learning statistics through active student participation. Like this episode, the book is divided into three parts: 1) The ideas of statistics, regression, and causal inference; 2) The value of storytelling to make statistical concepts more relatable and interesting; 3) The importance of teaching statistics in an active learning environment, where students are engaged in problem-solving and discussion.And Andrew is so active and knowledgeable that we of course touched on a variety of other topics — but for that, you'll have to listen ;)Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar, Matt Rosinski, Bart Trudeau, Luis Fonseca, Dante Gates, Matt Niccolls, Maksim Kuznecov, Michael Thomas, Luke Gorrie, Cory Kiser, Julio, Edvin Saveljev, Frederick Ayala, Jeffrey Powell, Gal Kampel, Adan Romero, Will Geary and Blake Walters.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Takeaways:- Active learning is essential for teaching and learning statistics.- Storytelling can make...

#105 The Power of Bayesian Statistics in Glaciology, with Andy Aschwanden & Doug Brinkerhoff

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later May 2, 2024 75:25 Transcription Available

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meIn this episode, Andy Aschwanden and Doug Brinkerhoff tell us about their work in glaciology and the application of Bayesian statistics in studying glaciers. They discuss the use of computer models and data analysis in understanding glacier behavior and predicting sea level rise, and a lot of other fascinating topics.Andy grew up in the Swiss Alps, and studied Earth Sciences, with a focus on atmospheric and climate science and glaciology. After his PhD, Andy moved to Fairbanks, Alaska, and became involved with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model, the first open-source and openly-developed ice sheet model.His first PhD student was no other than… Doug Brinkerhoff! Doug did an MS in computer science at the University of Montana, focusing on numerical methods for ice sheet modeling, and then moved to Fairbanks to complete his PhD. While in Fairbanks, he became an ardent Bayesian after “seeing that uncertainty needs to be embraced rather than ignored”. Doug has since moved back to Montana, becoming faculty in the University of Montana's computer science department.Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar, Matt Rosinski, Bart Trudeau, Luis Fonseca, Dante Gates, Matt Niccolls, Maksim Kuznecov, Michael Thomas, Luke Gorrie, Cory Kiser, Julio, Edvin Saveljev, Frederick Ayala, Jeffrey Powell, Gal Kampel, Adan Romero and Will Geary.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)

#104 Automated Gaussian Processes & Sequential Monte Carlo, with Feras Saad

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 16, 2024 90:48 Transcription Available

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meGPs are extremely powerful…. but hard to handle. One of the bottlenecks is learning the appropriate kernel. What if you could learn the structure of GP kernels automatically? Sounds really cool, but also a bit futuristic, doesn't it?Well, think again, because in this episode, Feras Saad will teach us how to do just that! Feras is an Assistant Professor in the Computer Science Department at Carnegie Mellon University. He received his PhD in Computer Science from MIT, and, most importantly for our conversation, he's the creator of AutoGP.jl, a Julia package for automatic Gaussian process modeling.Feras discusses the implementation of AutoGP, how it scales, what you can do with it, and how you can integrate its outputs in your models.Finally, Feras provides an overview of Sequential Monte Carlo and its usefulness in AutoGP, highlighting the ability of SMC to incorporate new data in a streaming fashion and explore multiple modes efficiently.Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar, Matt Rosinski, Bart Trudeau, Luis Fonseca, Dante Gates, Matt Niccolls, Maksim Kuznecov, Michael Thomas, Luke Gorrie, Cory Kiser, Julio, Edvin Saveljev, Frederick Ayala, Jeffrey Powell and Gal Kampel.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Takeaways:- AutoGP is a Julia package for automatic Gaussian process modeling that learns the

#103 Improving Sampling Algorithms & Prior Elicitation, with Arto Klami

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 5, 2024 74:39 Transcription Available

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meChanging perspective is often a great way to solve burning research problems. Riemannian spaces are such a perspective change, as Arto Klami, an Associate Professor of computer science at the University of Helsinki and member of the Finnish Center for Artificial Intelligence, will tell us in this episode.He explains the concept of Riemannian spaces, their application in inference algorithms, how they can help sampling Bayesian models, and their similarity with normalizing flows, that we discussed in episode 98.Arto also introduces PreliZ, a tool for prior elicitation, and highlights its benefits in simplifying the process of setting priors, thus improving the accuracy of our models.When Arto is not solving mathematical equations, you'll find him cycling, or around a good board game.Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar, Matt Rosinski, Bart Trudeau, Luis Fonseca, Dante Gates, Matt Niccolls, Maksim Kuznecov, Michael Thomas, Luke Gorrie, Cory Kiser and Julio.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Takeaways:- Riemannian spaces offer a way to improve computational efficiency and accuracy in Bayesian inference by considering the curvature of the posterior distribution.- Riemannian spaces can be used in Laplace approximation and Markov chain Monte Carlo...

#102 Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling & Causal Inference in Psychometrics, with Ed Merkle

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 20, 2024 68:53 Transcription Available

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meStructural Equation Modeling (SEM) is a key framework in causal inference. As I'm diving deeper and deeper into these topics to teach them and, well, finally understand them, I was delighted to host Ed Merkle on the show.A professor of psychological sciences at the University of Missouri, Ed discusses his work on Bayesian applications to psychometric models and model estimation, particularly in the context of Bayesian SEM. He explains the importance of BSEM in psychometrics and the challenges encountered in its estimation.Ed also introduces his blavaan package in R, which enhances researchers' capabilities in BSEM and has been instrumental in the dissemination of these methods. Additionally, he explores the role of Bayesian methods in forecasting and crowdsourcing wisdom.When he's not thinking about stats and psychology, Ed can be found running, playing the piano, or playing 8-bit video games.Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar, Matt Rosinski, Bart Trudeau, Luis Fonseca, Dante Gates, Matt Niccolls, Maksim Kuznecov, Michael Thomas, Luke Gorrie, Cory Kiser and Julio.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Takeaways: - Bayesian SEM is a powerful framework in psychometrics that allows for the estimation of complex models involving multiple variables and causal relationships.-...

How to find black holes with Bayesian inference

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 16, 2024 12:13

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meListen to the full episode: https://learnbayesstats.com/episode/101-black-holes-collisions-gravitational-waves-ligo-experts-christopher-berry-john-veitch/ Watch the interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZaZwCcrJlikOur theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar, Matt Rosinski, Bart Trudeau, Luis Fonseca, Dante Gates, Matt Niccolls, Maksim Kuznecov, Michael Thomas, Luke Gorrie, Cory Kiser and Julio.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)

How can we even hear gravitational waves?

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 14, 2024 8:59

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meListen to the full episode: https://learnbayesstats.com/episode/101-black-holes-collisions-gravitational-waves-ligo-experts-christopher-berry-john-veitch/ Watch the interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZaZwCcrJlikOur theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar, Matt Rosinski, Bart Trudeau, Luis Fonseca, Dante Gates, Matt Niccolls, Maksim Kuznecov, Michael Thomas, Luke Gorrie, Cory Kiser and Julio.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)

#101 Black Holes Collisions & Gravitational Waves, with LIGO Experts Christopher Berry & John Veitch

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 7, 2024 69:54 Transcription Available

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meIn this episode, we dive deep into gravitational wave astronomy, with Christopher Berry and John Veitch, two senior lecturers at the University of Glasgow and experts from the LIGO-VIRGO collaboration. They explain the significance of detecting gravitational waves, which are essential for understanding black holes and neutron stars collisions. This research not only sheds light on these distant events but also helps us grasp the fundamental workings of the universe.Our discussion focuses on the integral role of Bayesian statistics, detailing how they use nested sampling for extracting crucial information from the subtle signals of gravitational waves. This approach is vital for parameter estimation and understanding the distribution of cosmic sources through population inferences.Concluding the episode, Christopher and John highlight the latest advancements in black hole astrophysics and tests of general relativity, and touch upon the exciting prospects and challenges of the upcoming space-based LISA mission.Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar, Matt Rosinski, Bart Trudeau, Luis Fonseca, Dante Gates, Matt Niccolls, Maksim Kuznecov, Michael Thomas, Luke Gorrie, Cory Kiser and Julio.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Takeaways: ⁃ Gravitational wave analysis involves using Bayesian statistics for parameter estimation and population...

The Role of Variational Inference in Reactive Message Passing

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 1, 2024 10:49

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meListen to the full episode: https://learnbayesstats.com/episode/100-reactive-message-passing-automated-inference-in-julia-dmitry-bagaev/Watch the interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZG3H0xxCXTQOur theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar, Matt Rosinski, Bart Trudeau, Luis Fonseca, Dante Gates, Matt Niccolls, Maksim Kuznecov, Michael Thomas, Luke Gorrie, Cory Kiser and Julio.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)

Reactive Message Passing in Bayesian Inference

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 28, 2024 8:49

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meListen to the full episode: https://learnbayesstats.com/episode/100-reactive-message-passing-automated-inference-in-julia-dmitry-bagaev/Watch the interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZG3H0xxCXTQOur theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar, Matt Rosinski, Bart Trudeau, Luis Fonseca, Dante Gates, Matt Niccolls, Maksim Kuznecov, Michael Thomas, Luke Gorrie, Cory Kiser and Julio.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)

#100 Reactive Message Passing & Automated Inference in Julia, with Dmitry Bagaev

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 21, 2024 54:42 Transcription Available

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meIn this episode, Dmitry Bagaev discusses his work in Bayesian statistics and the development of RxInfer.jl, a reactive message passing toolbox for Bayesian inference. Dmitry explains the concept of reactive message passing and its applications in real-time signal processing and autonomous systems. He discusses the challenges and benefits of using RxInfer.jl, including its scalability and efficiency in large probabilistic models. Dmitry also shares insights into the trade-offs involved in Bayesian inference architecture and the role of variational inference in RxInfer.jl. Additionally, he discusses his startup Lazy Dynamics and its goal of commercializing research in Bayesian inference. Finally, we also discuss the user-friendliness and trade-offs of different inference methods, the future developments of RxInfer, and the future of automated Bayesian inference. Coming from a very small town in Russia called Nizhnekamsk, Dmitry currently lives in the Netherlands, where he did his PhD. Before that, he graduated from the Computational Science and Modeling department of Moscow State University. Beyond that, Dmitry is also a drummer (you'll see his cool drums if you're watching on YouTube), and an adept of extreme sports, like skydiving, wakeboarding and skiing!Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar, Matt Rosinski, Bart Trudeau, Luis Fonseca, Dante Gates, Matt Niccolls, Maksim Kuznecov, Michael Thomas, Luke Gorrie, Cory Kiser and Julio.Visit

The biggest misconceptions about Bayes & Quantum Physics

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 16, 2024 9:49

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meListen to the full episode: https://learnbayesstats.com/episode/99-exploring-quantum-physics-bayesian-stats-chris-ferrie/Watch the interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pRaT6FLF7A8 Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar, Matt Rosinski, Bart Trudeau, Luis Fonseca, Dante Gates, Matt Niccolls, Maksim Kuznecov, Michael Thomas, Luke Gorrie and Cory Kiser.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)

Why would you use Bayesian Statistics?

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 14, 2024 10:53

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meListen to the full episode: https://learnbayesstats.com/episode/99-exploring-quantum-physics-bayesian-stats-chris-ferrie/Watch the interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pRaT6FLF7A8 Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar, Matt Rosinski, Bart Trudeau, Luis Fonseca, Dante Gates, Matt Niccolls, Maksim Kuznecov, Michael Thomas, Luke Gorrie and Cory Kiser.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)

#99 Exploring Quantum Physics with Bayesian Stats, with Chris Ferrie

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 9, 2024 67:31 Transcription Available

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meYou know I'm a big fan of everything physics. So when I heard that Bayesian stats was especially useful in quantum physics, I had to make an episode about it!You'll hear from Chris Ferrie, an Associate Professor at the Centre for Quantum Software and Information of the University of Technology Sydney. Chris also has a foot in industry, as a co-founder of Eigensystems, an Australian start-up with a mission to democratize access to quantum computing. Of course, we talked about why Bayesian stats are helpful in quantum physics research, and about the burning challenges in this line of research.But Chris is also a renowned author — in addition to writing Bayesian Probability for Babies, he is the author of Quantum Physics for Babies and Quantum Bullsh*t: How to Ruin Your Life With Advice from Quantum Physics. So we ended up talking about science communication, science education, and a shocking revelation about Ant Man…A big thank you to one of my best Patrons, Stefan Lorenz, for recommending me an episode with Chris!Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar, Matt Rosinski, Bart Trudeau, Luis Fonseca, Dante Gates, Matt Niccolls, Maksim Kuznecov, Michael Thomas, Luke Gorrie and Cory Kiser.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Takeaways:Quantum computing has the...

How do sampling algorithms scale?

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 5, 2024 9:26

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meListen to the full episode: https://learnbayesstats.com/episode/98-fusing-statistical-physics-machine-learning-adaptive-mcmc-marylou-gabrie/Watch the interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVqZ0WWXX7g Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar, Matt Rosinski, Bart Trudeau, Luis Fonseca, Dante Gates, Matt Niccolls, Maksim Kuznecov, Michael Thomas, Luke Gorrie and Cory Kiser.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)

Why choose new algorithms instead of HMC?

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 4, 2024 8:42

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meListen to the full episode: https://learnbayesstats.com/episode/98-fusing-statistical-physics-machine-learning-adaptive-mcmc-marylou-gabrie/Watch the interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVqZ0WWXX7g Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar, Matt Rosinski, Bart Trudeau, Luis Fonseca, Dante Gates, Matt Niccolls, Maksim Kuznecov, Michael Thomas, Luke Gorrie and Cory Kiser.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)

#98 Fusing Statistical Physics, Machine Learning & Adaptive MCMC, with Marylou Gabrié

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 24, 2024 65:07 Transcription Available

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meHow does the world of statistical physics intertwine with machine learning, and what groundbreaking insights can this fusion bring to the field of artificial intelligence?In this episode, we delve into these intriguing questions with Marylou Gabrié. an assistant professor at CMAP, Ecole Polytechnique in Paris. Having completed her PhD in physics at École Normale Supérieure, Marylou ventured to New York City for a joint postdoctoral appointment at New York University's Center for Data Science and the Flatiron's Center for Computational Mathematics.As you'll hear, her research is not just about theoretical exploration; it also extends to the practical adaptation of machine learning techniques in scientific contexts, particularly where data is scarce.In this conversation, we'll traverse the landscape of Marylou's research, discussing her recent publications and her innovative approaches to machine learning challenges, latest MCMC advances, and ML-assisted scientific computing.Beyond that, get ready to discover the person behind the science – her inspirations, aspirations, and maybe even what she does when not decoding the complexities of machine learning algorithms!Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar, Matt Rosinski, Bart Trudeau, Luis Fonseca, Dante Gates, Matt Niccolls, Maksim Kuznecov, Michael Thomas, Luke Gorrie and Cory Kiser.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive...

Why Even Care About Science & Rationality

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 20, 2024 9:43

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meListen to the full episode: https://learnbayesstats.com/episode/97-probably-overthinking-statistical-paradoxes-allen-downey/Watch the interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KgesIe3hTe0Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar, Matt Rosinski, Bart Trudeau, Luis Fonseca, Dante Gates, Matt Niccolls, Maksim Kuznecov, Michael Thomas, Luke Gorrie and Cory Kiser.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)

How To Get Into Causal Inference

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 17, 2024 10:01

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meListen to the full episode: https://learnbayesstats.com/episode/97-probably-overthinking-statistical-paradoxes-allen-downey/Watch the interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KgesIe3hTe0Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar, Matt Rosinski, Bart Trudeau, Luis Fonseca, Dante Gates, Matt Niccolls, Maksim Kuznecov, Michael Thomas, Luke Gorrie and Cory Kiser.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)

#97 Probably Overthinking Statistical Paradoxes, with Allen Downey

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 9, 2024 72:36 Transcription Available

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meIn this episode, I had the pleasure of speaking with Allen Downey, a professor emeritus at Olin College and a curriculum designer at Brilliant.org. Allen is a renowned author in the fields of programming and data science, with books such as "Think Python" and "Think Bayes" to his credit. He also authors the blog "Probably Overthinking It" and has a new book by the same name, which he just released in December 2023.In this conversation, we tried to help you differentiate between right and wrong ways of looking at statistical data, discussed the Overton paradox and the role of Bayesian thinking in it, and detailed a mysterious Bayesian killer app!But that's not all: we even addressed the claim that Bayesian and frequentist methods often yield the same results — and why it's a false claim. If that doesn't get you to listen, I don't know what will!Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar, Matt Rosinski, Bart Trudeau, Luis Fonseca, Dante Gates, Matt Niccolls, Maksim Kuznecov, Michael Thomas, Luke Gorrie and Cory Kiser.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Links from the show:LBS #41, Thinking Bayes, with Allen Downey: https://learnbayesstats.com/episode/41-think-bayes-allen-downey/Allen's blog:

How to Choose & Use Priors, with Daniel Lee

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 20, 2023 9:06

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meListen to the full episode: https://learnbayesstats.com/episode/96-pharma-models-sports-analytics-stan-news-daniel-lee/Watch the interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lnq5ZPlup0EVisit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar, Matt Rosinski, Bart Trudeau, Luis Fonseca, Dante Gates, Matt Niccolls, Maksim Kuznecov, Michael Thomas and Luke Gorrie.This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podcorn - https://podcorn.com/privacy

Becoming a Good Bayesian & Choosing Mentors, with Daniel Lee

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 13, 2023 9:57

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meListen to the full episode: https://learnbayesstats.com/episode/96-pharma-models-sports-analytics-stan-news-daniel-lee/Watch the interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lnq5ZPlup0EVisit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar, Matt Rosinski, Bart Trudeau, Luis Fonseca, Dante Gates, Matt Niccolls, Maksim Kuznecov, Michael Thomas and Luke Gorrie.This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podcorn - https://podcorn.com/privacy

#96 Pharma Models, Sports Analytics & Stan News, with Daniel Lee

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 28, 2023 55:51 Transcription Available

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meGetting Daniel Lee on the show is a real treat — with 20 years of experience in numeric computation; 10 years creating and working with Stan; 5 years working on pharma-related models, you can ask him virtually anything. And that I did…From joint models for estimating oncology treatment efficacy to PK/PD models; from data fusion for U.S. Navy applications to baseball and football analytics, as well as common misconceptions or challenges in the Bayesian world — our conversation spans a wide range of topics that I'm sure you'll appreciate!Daniel studied Mathematics at MIT and Statistics at Cambridge University, and, when he's not in front of his computer, is a savvy basketball player and… a hip hop DJ — you actually have his SoundCloud profile in the show notes if you're curious!Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar, Matt Rosinski, Bart Trudeau, Luis Fonseca, Dante Gates, Matt Niccolls, Maksim Kuznecov, Michael Thomas and Luke Gorrie.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Links from the show:Daniel on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/syclik/Daniel on Twitter: https://twitter.com/djsyclikDaniel on GitHub: https://github.com/syclikDaniel's DJ profile:

#95 Unraveling Cosmic Mysteries, with Valerie Domcke

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 15, 2023 60:17 Transcription Available

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meWelcome to another installment of our LBS physics deep dive! After exploring the world of experimental physics at CERN in our first video documentary in episode 93, we'll stay in Geneva for this one, but this time we'll dive into theoretical physics.We'll explore mysterious components of the universe, like dark matter and dark energy. We'll also see how the study of gravity intersects with the study of particle physics, especially when considering black holes and the early universe. Even crazier, we'll see that there are actual experiments and observational projects going on to answer these fundamental questions!Our guide for this episode is Valerie Domcke, permanent research staff member at CERN, who did her PhD in Hamburg, Germany, and postdocs in Trieste and Paris.When she's not trying to decipher the mysteries of the universe, Valerie can be found on boats, as she's a big sailing fan.Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar, Matt Rosinski, Bart Trudeau, Luis Fonseca, Dante Gates, Matt Niccolls and Maksim Kuznecov.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Links from the show:Valerie's webpage: https://theory.cern/roster/domcke-valerieValerie on Google Scholar:

#94 Psychometrics Models & Choosing Priors, with Jonathan Templin

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 24, 2023 66:25 Transcription Available

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meIn this episode, Jonathan Templin, Professor of Psychological and Quantitative Foundations at the University of Iowa, shares insights into his journey in the world of psychometrics.Jonathan's research focuses on diagnostic classification models — psychometric models that seek to provide multiple reliable scores from educational and psychological assessments. He also studies Bayesian statistics, as applied in psychometrics, broadly. So, naturally, we discuss the significance of psychometrics in psychological sciences, and how Bayesian methods are helpful in this field.We also talk about challenges in choosing appropriate prior distributions, best practices for model comparison, and how you can use the Multivariate Normal distribution to infer the correlations between the predictors of your linear regressions.This is a deep-reaching conversation that concludes with the future of Bayesian statistics in psychological, educational, and social sciences — hope you'll enjoy it!Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar, Matt Rosinski, Bart Trudeau, Luis Fonseca and Dante Gates.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Links from the show:Jonathan's website: https://jonathantemplin.com/Jonathan on Twitter:

#93 A CERN Odyssey, with Kevin Greiff

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 18, 2023 109:05

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meThis is a very special episode. It is the first-ever LBS video episode, and it takes place in the heart of particle physics research -- the CERN

#92 How to Make Decision Under Uncertainty, with Gerd Gigerenzer

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 4, 2023 64:45 Transcription Available

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meI love Bayesian modeling. Not only because it allows me to model interesting phenomena and learn about the world I live in. But because it's part of a broader epistemological framework that confronts me with deep questions — how do you make decisions under uncertainty? How do you communicate risk and uncertainty? What does being rational even mean?Thankfully, Gerd Gigerenzer is there to help us navigate these fascinating topics. Gerd is the Director of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy of the University of Potsdam, Germany.Also Director emeritus at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development, he is a former Professor of Psychology at the University of Chicago and Distinguished Visiting Professor at the School of Law of the University of Virginia. Gerd has written numerous awarded articles and books, including Risk Savvy, Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart, Rationality for Mortals, and How to Stay Smart in a Smart World.As you'll hear, Gerd has trained U.S. federal judges, German physicians, and top managers to make better decisions under uncertainty.But Gerd is also a banjo player, has won a medal in Judo, and loves scuba diving, skiing, and, above all, reading.Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar, Matt Rosinski, Bart Trudeau and Luis Fonseca.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Links from the show:Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag...

director university chicago school law germany professor german psychology decision uncertainty mentorship alex jones casper rapha judo human development gerd proudly potsdam mortals rationality bruin bayesian max planck institute cameron smith mega ran james thompson distinguished visiting professor arkady james wade paul cox gerd gigerenzer mc lars baba brinkman stay smart rick anderson robin taylor patrick kelley andreas kr risk literacy harding center aubrey clayton risk savvy adam c smith

#91, Exploring European Football Analytics, with Max Göbel

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 20, 2023 64:13 Transcription Available

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meAs you may know, I'm kind of a nerd. And I also love football — I've been a PSG fan since I'm 5 years old, so I've lived it all with this club.. And yet, I've never done a European-centered football analytics episode because, well, the US are much more advanced when it comes to sports analytics.But today, I'm happy to say this day has come: a sports analytics episode where we can actually talk about European football. And that is thanks to Maximilan Göbel.Max is a post-doctoral researcher in Economics and Finance at Bocconi University in Milan. Before that, he did his PhD in Economics at the Lisbon School of Economics and Management. Max is a very passionate football fan and played himself for almost 25 years in his local football club. Unfortunately, he had to give it up when starting his PhD — don't worry, he still goes to the gym, or goes running and sometimes cycling.Max is also a great cook, inspired by all kinds of Italian food, and an avid podcast listener — from financial news, to health and fitness content, and even a mysterious and entertaining Bayesian podcast…Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Trey Causey, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar, Matt Rosinski, Bart Trudeau and Luis Fonseca.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Links from the show:Max's website:

#90, Demystifying MCMC & Variational Inference, with Charles Margossian

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 6, 2023 97:36 Transcription Available

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meWhat's the difference between MCMC and Variational Inference (VI)? Why is MCMC called an approximate method? When should we use VI instead of MCMC?These are some of the captivating (and practical) questions we'll tackle in this episode. I had the chance to interview Charles Margossian, a research fellow in computational mathematics at the Flatiron Institute, and a core developer of the Stan software.Charles was born and raised in Paris, and then moved to the US to pursue a bachelor's degree in physics at Yale university. After graduating, he worked for two years in biotech, and went on to do a PhD in statistics at Columbia University with someone named… Andrew Gelman — you may have heard of him.Charles is also specialized in pharmacometrics and epidemiology, so we also talked about some practical applications of Bayesian methods and algorithms in these fascinating fields.Oh, and Charles' life doesn't only revolve around computers: he practices ballroom dancing and pickup soccer, and used to do improvised musical comedy!Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Trey Causey, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar and Matt Rosinski.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Links from the show:Charles' website: https://charlesm93.github.io/Charles on Twitter: https://twitter.com/charlesm993Charles on GitHub:

phd columbia university mentorship yale demystifying alex jones casper github rapha proudly bruin bayesian cameron smith inference mega ran james thompson arkady james wade paul cox mc lars mcmc baba brinkman rick anderson robin taylor andrew gelman patrick kelley andreas kr aubrey clayton trey causey adam c smith

#89 Unlocking the Science of Exercise, Nutrition & Weight Management, with Eric Trexler

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 23, 2023 119:50 Transcription Available

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meIf you've ever tried to lose fat or gain muscle, you may have noticed… it's not easy. But it's precisely its complexity that makes the science of exercise and nutrition fascinating.This is the longest LBS episode so far, and you'll understand why pretty quickly: we covered a very wide range of topics, starting with the concept of metabolic adaptation and how our physiology and brain react to caloric deficits or caloric surpluses.We also talked about the connection between metabolic adaptation and exercise energy compensation, shedding light on the interactions between the two, and how they make weight management more complex.Statistics are of utmost importance in these endeavors, so of course we touched on how Bayesian stats can help mitigate the challenges of low sample sizes and over-focus on average treatment effect.My guest for this marathon episode, is no other than Eric Trexler. Currently at the Department of Evolutionary Anthropology of Duke University, Eric conducts research on metabolism and cardiometabolic health. He has a PhD in Human Movement Science from UNC Chapel Hill, and has published dozens of peer-reviewed research papers related to exercise, nutrition, and metabolism.In addition, Eric is a former professional bodybuilder and has been coaching clients with goals related to health, fitness, and athletics since 2009.In other words, get comfy for a broad and nerdy conversation about the mysteries related to energy expenditure regulation, weight management, and evolutionary mechanisms underpinning current health challenges.Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Trey Causey, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt

#88 Bridging Computation & Inference in Artificial Intelligent Systems, with Philipp Hennig

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 10, 2023 71:50

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!Listen on PoduramaMy Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meToday, we're gonna learn about probabilistic numerics — what they are, what they are good for, and how they relate computation and inference in artificial intelligent systems.To do this, I have the honor of hosting Philipp Hennig, a distinguished expert in this field, and the Chair for the Methods of Machine Learning at the University of Tübingen, Germany. Philipp studied in Heidelberg, also in Germany, and at Imperial College, London. Philipp received his PhD from the University of Cambridge, UK, under the supervision of David MacKay, before moving to Tübingen in 2011. Since his PhD, he has been interested in the connection between computation and inference. With international colleagues, he helped establish the idea of probabilistic numerics, which describes computation as Bayesian inference. His book, Probabilistic Numerics — Computation as Machine Learning, co-authored with Mike Osborne and Hans Kersting, was published by Cambridge University Press in 2022 and is also openly available online. So get comfy to explore the principles that underpin these algorithms, how they differ from traditional numerical methods, and how to incorporate uncertainty into the decision-making process of these algorithms.Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Trey Causey, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar and Matt Rosinski.Visit

#87 Unlocking the Power of Bayesian Causal Inference, with Ben Vincent

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 30, 2023 68:38

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!Listen on PoduramaMy Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meI'll be honest — this episode is long overdue. Not only because Ben Vincent is a friend, fellow PyMC Labs developer, and outstanding Bayesian modeler. But because he works on so many fascinating topics — so I'm all the happier to finally have him on the show!In this episode, we're gonna focus on causal inference, how it naturally extends Bayesian modeling, and how you can use the CausalPy open-source package to supercharge your Bayesian causal inference. We'll also touch on marketing models and the pymc-marketing package, because, well, Ben does a lot of stuff ;)Ben got his PhD in neuroscience at Sussex University, in the UK. After a postdoc at the University of Bristol, working on robots and active vision, as well as 15 years as a lecturer at the Scottish University of Dundee, he switched to the private sector, working with us full time at PyMC Labs — and that is a treat!When he's not working, Ben loves running 5k's, cycling in the forest, lifting weights, and… learning about modern monetary theory.Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Trey Causey, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony and Joshua Meehl.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Links from the show:Ben's website:

university uk phd unlocking mentorship casper rapha dundee proudly bruin bayesian cameron smith mega ran james thompson arkady sussex university james wade paul cox mc lars causal inference baba brinkman rick anderson robin taylor patrick kelley andreas kr aubrey clayton trey causey adam c smith

#86 Exploring Research Synchronous Languages & Hybrid Systems, with Guillaume Baudart

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 14, 2023 58:43

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!Listen on PoduramaMy Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meThis episode is unlike anything I've covered so far on the show. Let me ask you: Do you know what a research synchronous language is? What about hybrid systems? Last try: have you heard of Zelus, or ProbZelus?If you answered “no” to one of the above, then you're just like me! And that's why I invited Guillaume Baudart for this episode — to teach us about all these fascinating topics!Guillaume is a researcher in programming languages who works on ProbZelus, a probabilistic extension to Zelus, itself a research synchronous language to implement hybrid systems. To simplify, Zelus is a modeling framework to simulate the dynamics of systems both smooth and subject to discrete dynamics — if you've ever worked with ODEs, you may be familiar with these terms.If you're not — great, Guillaume will explain everything in the episode! And I know it might sound niche, but this kind of approach actually has very important applications — such as proving that there are no bugs in a program.Guillaume did his PhD at École Normale Supérieure, in Paris, working on reactive programming languages and quasi-periodic systems. He then worked in the AI programming team of IBM Research, before coming back to the École Normale Supérieure, working mostly on reactive and probabilistic programming.In his free time, Guillaume loves spending time with his family, playing the violin with friends, and… cooking!Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Trey Causey, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant...

ai phd research mentorship hybrid languages casper guillaume rapha proudly bruin cameron smith mega ran odes ibm research synchronous normale sup james thompson arkady james wade paul cox mc lars baba brinkman rick anderson robin taylor patrick kelley andreas kr aubrey clayton trey causey adam c smith

#85 A Brief History of Sports Analytics, with Jim Albert

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 27, 2023 66:11 Transcription Available

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meIn this episode, I am honored to talk with a legend of sports analytics in general, and baseball analytics in particular. I am of course talking about Jim Albert.Jim grew up in the Philadelphia area and studied statistics at Purdue University. He then spent his entire 41-year academic career at Bowling Green State University, which gave him a wide diversity of classes to teach – from intro statistics through doctoral level.As you'll hear, he's always had a passion for Bayesian education, Bayesian modeling and learning about statistics through sports. I find that passion fascinating about Jim, and I suspect that's one of the main reasons for his prolific career — really, the list of his writings and teachings is impressive; just go take a look at the show notes.Now an Emeritus Professor of Bowling Green, Jim is retired, but still an active tennis player and writer on sports analytics — his blog, “Exploring Baseball with R”, is nearing 400 posts!Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Trey Causey, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony and Joshua Meehl.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Links from the show:Jim's website: https://bayesball.github.io/Jim's baseball blog: https://baseballwithr.wordpress.com/Jim on GitHub: https://github.com/bayesballJim on Twitter: https://twitter.com/albertbayesJim on...

#84 Causality in Neuroscience & Psychology, with Konrad Kording

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 13, 2023 65:42 Transcription Available

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meThis is another installment in our neuroscience modeling series! This time, I talked with Konrad Kording, about the role of Bayesian stats in neuroscience and psychology, electrophysiological data to study what neurons do, and how this helps explain human behavior.Konrad studied at ETH Zurich, then went to UC London and MIT for his postdocs. After a decade at Northwestern University, he is now Penn Integrated Knowledge Professor at the University of Pennsylvania.As you'll hear, Konrad is particularly interested in the question of how the brain solves the credit assignment problem and similarly how we should assign credit in the real world (through causality). Building on this, he is also interested in applications of causality in biomedical research.And… he's also a big hiker, skier and salsa dancer!Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Trey Causey, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony and Joshua Meehl.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Links from the show:Konrad's lab: https://kordinglab.com/Konrad's lab on GitHub: https://github.com/KordingLabKonrad's lab on Twitter: https://twitter.com/KordingLabLBS #81, Neuroscience of Perception: Exploring the Brain, with Alan Stocker:

#83 Multilevel Regression, Post-Stratification & Electoral Dynamics, with Tarmo Jüristo

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later May 25, 2023 77:21 Transcription Available

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meOne of the greatest features of this podcast, and my work in general, is that I keep getting surprised. Along the way, I keep learning, and I meet fascinating people, like Tarmo Jüristo.Tarmo is hard to describe. These days, he's heading an NGO called Salk, in the Baltic state called Estonia. Among other things, they are studying and forecasting elections, which is how we met and ended up collaborating with PyMC Labs, our Bayesian consultancy.But Tarmo is much more than that. Born in 1971 in what was still the Soviet Union, he graduated in finance from Tartu University. He worked in finance and investment banking until the 2009 crisis, when he quit and started a doctorate in… cultural studies. He then went on to write for theater and TV, teaching literature, anthropology and philosophy. An avid world traveler, he also teaches kendo and Brazilian jiu-jitsu.As you'll hear in the episode, after lots of adventures, he established Salk, and they just used a Bayesian hierarchical model with post-stratification to forecast the results of the 2023 Estonian parliamentary elections and target the campaign efforts to specific demographics.Oh, and let thing: Tarmo is a fan of the show — I told you he was a great guy ;)Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Trey Causey, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh and Grant Pezzolesi.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Links from the show:Tarmo on GitHub: https://github.com/tarmojuristoTarmo on...

tv brazilian mentorship soviet union dynamics ngo casper estonia github rapha electoral regression baltic proudly estonian bruin bayesian cameron smith mega ran salk risto stratification multilevel james thompson arkady james wade paul cox mc lars tarmo baba brinkman rick anderson robin taylor patrick kelley andreas kr aubrey clayton tarmo j trey causey adam c smith

#82 Sequential Monte Carlo & Bayesian Computation Algorithms, with Nicolas Chopin

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later May 5, 2023 66:35

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with me------------------------------------------------------------------------------Max Kochurov's State of Bayes Lecture Series: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL1iMFW7frOOsh5KOcfvKWM12bjh8zs9BQSign up here for upcoming lessons: https://www.meetup.com/pymc-labs-online-meetup/events/293101751/------------------------------------------------------------------------------We talk a lot about different MCMC methods on this podcast, because they are the workhorses of the Bayesian models. But other methods exist to infer the posterior distributions of your models — like Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) for instance. You've never heard of SMC? Well perfect, because Nicolas Chopin is gonna tell you all about it in this episode!A lecturer at the French university of ENSAE since 2006, Nicolas is one of the world experts on SMC. Before that, he graduated from Ecole Polytechnique and… ENSAE, where he did his PhD from 1999 to 2003.Outside of work, Nicolas enjoys spending time with his family, practicing aikido, and reading a lot of books.Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Trey Causey, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady and Kurt TeKolste.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Links from the show:Old episodes...

state french phd mentorship algorithms casper rapha monte carlo chopin proudly bruin bayesian cameron smith computation sequential smc mega ran james thompson arkady james wade paul cox ecole polytechnique mc lars mcmc baba brinkman rick anderson robin taylor patrick kelley andreas kr aubrey clayton trey causey adam c smith

#81 Neuroscience of Perception: Exploring the Brain, with Alan Stocker

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 24, 2023 74:55

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!Did you know that the way your brain perceives speed depends on your priors? And it's not the same at night? And it's not the same for everybody?This is another of these episodes I love where we dive into neuroscience, how the brain works, and how it relates to Bayesian stats. It's actually a follow-up to episode 77, where Pascal Wallisch told us how the famous black and blue dress tells a lot about our priors about how we perceive the world. So I strongly recommend listening to episode 77 first, and then come back here, to have your mind blown away again, this time by Alan Stocker.Alan was born and raised in Switzerland. After a PhD in physics at ETH Zurich, he somehow found himself doing neuroscience, during a postdoc at NYU. And then he never stopped — still leading the Computational Perception and Cognition Laboratory of the University of Pennsylvania.But Alan is also a man of music (playing the piano when he can), a man of coffee (he'll never refuse an olympia cremina or a kafatek) and a man of the outdoors (he loves trashing through deep powder with his snowboard).Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, David Haas, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Trey Causey, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady and Kurt TeKolste.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Links from the show:Alan's website: https://www.sas.upenn.edu/~astocker/lab/members-files/alan.phpNoise characteristics and prior expectations in human visual speed perception: https://www.nature.com/articles/nn1669Combining efficient coding with Bayesian inference as a...

university phd brain pennsylvania switzerland perception neuroscience nyu casper rapha proudly bruin bayesian cameron smith stocker eth zurich mega ran james thompson arkady james wade paul cox mc lars baba brinkman rick anderson robin taylor david haas patrick kelley andreas kr aubrey clayton trey causey adam c smith

#80 Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BARTs), with Sameer Deshpande

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 11, 2023 69:05 Transcription Available

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!I'm sure you know at least one Bart. Maybe you've even used one — but you're not proud of it, because you didn't know what you were doing. Thankfully, in this episode, we'll go to the roots of regression trees — oh yeah, that's what BART stands for. What were you thinking about?Our tree expert will be no one else than Sameer Deshpande. Sameer is an assistant professor of Statistics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Prior to that, he completed a postdoc at MIT and earned his Ph.D. in Statistics from UPenn.On the methodological front, he is interested in Bayesian hierarchical modeling, regression trees, model selection, and causal inference. Much of his applied work is motivated by an interest in understanding the long-term health consequences of playing American-style tackle football. He also enjoys modeling sports data and was a finalist in the 2019 NFL Big Data Bowl.Outside of Statistics, he enjoys cooking, making cocktails, and photography — sometimes doing all of those at the same time…Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, David Haas, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Trey Causey, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, and Arkady.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Links from the show:Sameer's website: https://skdeshpande91.github.io/Sameer on GitHub: https://github.com/skdeshpande91Sameer on Twitter: https://twitter.com/skdeshpande91 Sameer on Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=coVrnWIAAAAJ&hl=enLBS #50 Ta(l)king Risks & Embracing...

#79 Decision-Making & Cost Effectiveness Analysis for Health Economics, with Gianluca Baio

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 17, 2023 67:48

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!Decision-making and cost effectiveness analyses rarely get as important as in the health systems — where matters of life and death are not a metaphor. Bayesian statistical modeling is extremely helpful in this field, with its ability to quantify uncertainty, include domain knowledge, and incorporate causal reasoning.Specialized in all these topics, Gianluca Baio was the person to talk to for this episode. He'll tell us about this kind of models, and how to understand them.Gianluca is currently the head of the department of Statistical Science at University College London. He studied Statistics and Economics at the University of Florence (Italy), and completed a PhD in Applied Statistics, again at the beautiful University of Florence.He's also a very skilled pizzaiolo — so now I have two reasons to come back to visit Tuscany…Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, David Haas, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Trey Causey, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, and Arkady.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Links from the show:Gianluca's website: https://gianluca.statistica.it/Gianluca on GitHub: https://github.com/giabaio Gianluca on Mastodon: https://mas.to/@gianlubaioGianluca on Twitter: https://twitter.com/gianlubaioGianluca on...

#78 Exploring MCMC Sampler Algorithms, with Matt D. Hoffman

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 1, 2023 62:41 Transcription Available

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!Matt Hoffman has already worked on many topics in his life – music information retrieval, speech enhancement, user behavior modeling, social network analysis, astronomy, you name it.Obviously, picking questions for him was hard, so we ended up talking more or less freely — which is one of my favorite types of episodes, to be honest.You'll hear about the circumstances Matt would advise picking up Bayesian stats, generalized HMC, blocked samplers, why do the samplers he works on have food-based names, etc.In case you don't know him, Matt is a research scientist at Google. Before that, he did a postdoc in the Columbia Stats department, working with Andrew Gelman, and a Ph.D at Princeton, working with David Blei and Perry Cook.Matt is probably best known for his work in approximate Bayesian inference algorithms, such as stochastic variational inference and the no-U-turn sampler, but he's also worked on a wide range of applications, and contributed to software such as Stan and TensorFlow Probability.Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, David Haas, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Trey Causey, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode and Gabriel Stechschulte.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Links from the show:Matt's website: http://matthewdhoffman.com/Matt on Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=IeHKeGYAAAAJ&view_op=list_worksThe No-U-Turn Sampler: Adaptively Setting Path Lengths in Hamiltonian Monte Carlo: https://www.jmlr.org/papers/volume15/hoffman14a/hoffman14a.pdfTuning-Free Generalized Hamiltonian Monte Carlo:

google algorithms hoffman casper rapha proudly sampler bruin bayesian google scholar cameron smith mega ran matt d james thompson hmc james wade paul cox matt hoffman mc lars mcmc baba brinkman rick anderson robin taylor andrew gelman david haas patrick kelley andreas kr aubrey clayton trey causey adam c smith

#77 How a Simple Dress Helped Uncover Hidden Prejudices, with Pascal Wallisch

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 13, 2023 69:01 Transcription Available

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!I love dresses. Not on me, of course — I'm not nearly elegant enough to pull it off. Nevertheless, to me, dresses are one of the most elegant pieces of clothing ever invented.And I like them even more when they change colors. Well, they don't really change colors — it's the way we perceive the colors that can change. You remember that dress that looked black and blue to some people, and white and gold to others? Well that's exactly what we'll dive into and explain in this episode.Why do we literally see the world differently? Why does that even happen beyond our consciousness, most of the time? And cherry on the cake: how on Earth could this be related to… priors?? Yes, as in Bayesian priors!Pascal Wallisch will shed light on all these topics in this episode. Pascal is a professor of Psychology and Data Science at New York University, where he studies a diverse range of topics including perception, cognitive diversity, the roots of disagreement and psychopathy.Originally from Germany, Pascal did his undergraduate studies at the Free University of Berlin. He then received his PhD from the University of Chicago, where he studied visual perception.In addition to scientific articles on psychology and neuroscience, he wrote multiple books on scientific computing and data science. As you'll hear, Pascal is a wonderful science communicator, so it's only normal that he also writes for a general audience at Slate or the Creativity Post, and has given public talks at TedX and Think and Drink.Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, David Haas, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Trey Causey, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R and Nicolas Rode.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Links from the show:Pascal's website: https://blog.pascallisch.net/about/Pascal on Twitter:

#76 The Past, Present & Future of Stan, with Bob Carpenter

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 1, 2023 71:10 Transcription Available

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!How does it feel to switch careers and start a postdoc at age 47? How was it to be one of the people who created the probabilistic programming language Stan? What should the Bayesian community focus on in the coming years?These are just a few of the questions I had for my illustrious guest in this episode — Bob Carpenter. Bob is, of course, a Stan developer, and comes from a math background, with an emphasis on logic and computer science theory. He then did his PhD in cognitive and computer sciences, at the University of Edinburgh.He moved from a professor position at Carnegie Mellon to industry research at Bell Labs, to working with Andrew Gelman and Matt Hoffman at Columbia University. Since 2020, he's been working at Flatiron Institute, a non-profit focused on algorithms and software for science.In his free time, Bob loves to cook, see live music, and play role playing games — think Monster of the Week, Blades in Dark, and Fate.Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Elea McDonnell Feit, Bert≈rand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, David Haas, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Trey Causey, Andreas Kröpelin and Raphaël R.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Links from the show:Bob's website: https://bob-carpenter.github.ioBob on GitHub: https://github.com/bob-carpenterBob on Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com.au/citations?user=kPtKWAwAAAAJ&hl=enStat modeling blog: https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.eduStan home page:

#75 The Physics of Top Gun 2 Maverick, with Jason Berndt

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 20, 2023 67:26 Transcription Available

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!If you're a nerd like me, you're always curious about the physics of any situation. So, obviously, when I watched Top Gun 2, I became fascinated by the aerodynamics of fighters jets. And it so happens that one of my friends used to be a fighter pilot for the Canadian army… Immediately, I thought this would make for a cool episode — and here we are!Actually, Jason Berndt wanted to be a pilot from the age of 3. When he was 6, he went to an air show, and then specifically wanted to become a fighter pilot. In his teens, he learned how to fly saliplanes, small single engine aircrafts. At age 22, he got a bachelor's in aero engineering from the royal military college, and then — well, he'll tell you the rest in the episode.Now in his thirties, he owns real estate and created his own company, My Two Brows, selling temporary eyebrow tattoos — which, weirdly enough, is actually related to his time in the army…In his free time, Jason plays the guitar, travels around the world (that's actually how we met), and loves chasing adrenaline however he can (paragliding, scuba diving, you name it!).Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Elea McDonnell Feit, Bert≈rand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, David Haas, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Trey Causey, Andreas Kröpelin and Raphaël R.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Links from the show:My Two Brows website: https://mytwobrows.com/My Two Brows on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/my_two_brows/My Two Brows on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC6eQgQ4qoGE2RStDJkumUGgPyMC Labs Workshop – Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Survey Data with Post-stratification:

canadian guns physics top gun casper rapha proudly bruin bayesian cameron smith wilden mega ran top gun 2 james thompson james wade paul cox mc lars survey data baba brinkman rick anderson robin taylor david haas patrick kelley andreas kr aubrey clayton trey causey adam c smith

#74 Optimizing NUTS and Developing the ZeroSumNormal Distribution, with Adrian Seyboldt

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 5, 2023 72:16

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!We need to talk. I had trouble writing this introduction. Not because I didn't know what to say (that's hardly ever an issue for me), but because a conversation with Adrian Seyboldt always takes deliciously unexpected turns.Adrian is one of the most brilliant, interesting and open-minded person I know. It turns out he's courageous too: although he's not a fan of public speaking, he accepted my invitation on this show — and I'm really glad he did!Adrian studied math and bioinformatics in Germany and now lives in the US, where he enjoys doing maths, baking bread and hiking.We talked about the why and how of his new project, Nutpie, a more efficient implementation of the NUTS sampler in Rust. We also dived deep into the new ZeroSumNormal distribution he created and that's available from PyMC 4.2 onwards — what is it? Why would you use it? And when?Adrian will also tell us about his favorite type of models, as well as what he currently sees as the biggest hurdles in the Bayesian workflow.Each time I talk with Adrian, I learn a lot and am filled with enthusiasm — and now I hope you will too!Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, Adam Bartonicek, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Elea McDonnell Feit, Bert≈rand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, David Haas, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Trey Causey and Andreas Kröpelin.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Links from the show:LBS on Twitter: https://twitter.com/LearnBayesStatsLBS on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/company/learn-bayes-stats/

germany developing nuts optimizing distribution rust casper proudly bruin lbs bayesian cameron smith wilden mega ran james thompson james wade paul cox mc lars baba brinkman rick anderson robin taylor david haas patrick kelley andreas kr aubrey clayton trey causey adam c smith

#73 A Guide to Plotting Inferences & Uncertainties of Bayesian Models, with Jessica Hullman

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 23, 2022 60:55

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!I'm guessing you already tried to communicate the results of a statistical model to non-stats people — it's hard, right? I'll be honest: sometimes, I even prefer to take notes during meetings than doing that… But shhh, that's out secret.But all of this was before. Before I talked with Jessica Hullman. Jessica is the Ginny Rometty associate professor of computer science at Northwestern University.Her work revolves around how to design interfaces to help people draw inductive inferences from data. Her research has explored how to best align data-driven interfaces and representations of uncertainty with human reasoning capabilities, which is what we'll mainly talk about in this episode.Jessica also tries to understand the role of interactive analysis across different stages of a statistical workflow, and how to evaluate data visualization interfaces.Her work has been awarded with multiple best paper and honorable mention awards, and she frequently speaks and blogs on topics related to visualization and reasoning about uncertainty — as usual, you'll find the links in the show notes.Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, Adam Bartonicek, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Elea McDonnell Feit, Bert≈rand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, David Haas, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox and Trey Causey.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)General links from the show:Jessica's website: http://users.eecs.northwestern.edu/~jhullman/ Jessica on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JessicaHullmanMidwest Uncertainty Collective:

guide models northwestern university casper proudly plotting uncertainties bruin bayesian cameron smith wilden mega ran james thompson james wade paul cox mc lars inferences baba brinkman rick anderson robin taylor david haas patrick kelley aubrey clayton trey causey adam c smith

#72 Why the Universe is so Deliciously Crazy, with Daniel Whiteson

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 3, 2022 73:32

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!What happens inside a black hole? Can we travel back in time? Why is the Universe even here? This is the type of chill questions that we're all asking ourselves from time to time — you know, when we're sitting on the beach.This is also the kind of questions Daniel Whiteson loves to talk about in his podcast, “Daniel and Jorge Explain the Universe”, co-hosted with Jorge Cham, the author of PhD comics. Honestly, it's one of my favorite shows ever, so I warmly recommend it. Actually, if you've ever hung out with me in person, there is a high chance I started nerding out about it…Daniel is, of course, a professor of physics, at the University of California, Irvine, and also a researcher at CERN, using the Large Hadron Collider to search for exotic new particles — yes, these are particles that put little umbrellas in their drinks and taste like coconut.On his free time, Daniel loves reading, sailing and baking — I can confirm that he makes a killer Nutella roll!Oh, I almost forgot: Daniel and Jorge wrote two books — We Have No Idea and FAQ about the Universe — which, again, I strongly recommend. They are among my all-time favorites.Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, Adam Bartonicek, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Elea McDonnell Feit, Bert≈rand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, George Ho, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Luis Iberico, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, David Haas, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek and Paul Cox.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Links from the show:PyMC Labs Meetup, Dec 8th 2022, A Candle in the Dark – How to Use Hierarchical Post-Stratification with Noisy Data: https://www.meetup.com/pymc-labs-online-meetup/events/289949398/Daniel's website:

university california phd universe dark honestly casper faq irvine candle cern nutella proudly bruin bayesian cameron smith large hadron collider wilden mega ran james thompson james wade paul cox mc lars baba brinkman rick anderson robin taylor daniel whiteson jorge cham david haas patrick kelley jorge explain aubrey clayton adam c smith

#71 Artificial Intelligence, Deepmind & Social Change, with Julien Cornebise

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 14, 2022 65:08

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!This episode will show you different sides of the tech world. The one where you research and apply algorithms, where you get super excited about image recognition and AI-generated art. And the one where you support social change actors — aka the “AI for Good” movement.My guest for this episode is, quite naturally, Julien Cornebise. Julien is an Honorary Associate Professor at UCL. He was an early researcher at DeepMind where he designed its early algorithms. He then worked as a Director of Research at ElementAI, where he built and led the London office and “AI for Good” unit.After his theoretical work on Bayesian methods, he had the privilege to work with the NHS to diagnose eye diseases; with Amnesty International to quantify abuse on Twitter and find destroyed villages in Darfur; with Forensic Architecture to identify teargas canisters used against civilians.Other than that, Julien is an avid reader, and loves dark humor and picking up his son from school at the 'hour of the daddies and the mommies”.Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, Adam Bartonicek, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Elea McDonnell Feit, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, George Ho, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Luis Iberico, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Aaron Jones, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, David Haas, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek and Paul Cox.Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Links from the show:Julien's website: https://cornebise.com/julien/Julien on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JCornebiseJulien on LinkedIn:

#70 Teaching Bayes for Biology & Biological Engineering, with Justin Bois

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 22, 2022 65:31

Proudly sponsored by https://www.pymc-labs.io/ (PyMC Labs), the Bayesian Consultancy. https://calendar.google.com/calendar/appointments/schedules/AcZssZ1nOI_SElJzSiQ2sXBDiaW9w98ErjnHVzmHcSilYNWeXxJgV870NGuWZUGo3W-8-gDG8jIXQhBf (Book a call), or get in touch! Back in 2016, when I started dedicating my evenings and weekends to learning how to code and do serious stats, I was a bit lost… Where do I start? Which language do I pick? Why are all those languages just named with one single letter?? Then I found some stats classes by Justin Bois — and it was a tremendous help to get out of that wood (and yes, this was a pun). I really loved Justin's teaching because he was making the assumptions explicit, and also explained them — which was so much more satisfying to my nerdy brain, which always wonders why we're making this assumption and not that one. So of course, I'm thrilled to be hosting Justin on the show today! Justin is a Teaching Professor in the Division of Biology and Biological Engineering at Caltech, California, where he also did his PhD. Before that, he was a postdoc in biochemistry at UCLA, as well as the Max Planck Institute in Dresden, Germany. Most importantly for the football fans, he's a goalkeeper — actually, the day before recording, he saved two penalty kicks… and even scored a goal! A big fan of Los Angeles football club, Justin is a also a magic enthusiast — he is indeed a member of the Magic Castle… Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ (https://bababrinkman.com/) ! Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible! Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, Adam Bartonicek, William Benton, Alan O'Donnell, Mark Ormsby, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Elea McDonnell Feit, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, George Ho, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Matthew McAnear, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Luis Iberico, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Aaron Jones, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, David Haas, Robert Yolken and Or Duek. Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats (https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats) to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;) Links from the show: Justin's website: http://bois.caltech.edu/index.html (http://bois.caltech.edu/index.html) Justin on GitHub: https://github.com/justinbois/ (https://github.com/justinbois/) Justin's course on Data analysis with frequentist inference: https://bebi103a.github.io/ (https://bebi103a.github.io/) Justin's course on Bayesian inference: https://bebi103b.github.io/ (https://bebi103b.github.io/) LBS #6, A principled Bayesian workflow, with Michael Betancourt: https://learnbayesstats.com/episode/6-a-principled-bayesian-workflow-with-michael-betancourt/ (https://learnbayesstats.com/episode/6-a-principled-bayesian-workflow-with-michael-betancourt/) Physical Biology of the Cell: https://www.routledge.com/Physical-Biology-of-the-Cell/Phillips-Kondev-Theriot-Garcia-Phillips-Kondev-Theriot-Garcia/p/book/9780815344506 (https://www.routledge.com/Physical-Biology-of-the-Cell/Phillips-Kondev-Theriot-Garcia-Phillips-Kondev-Theriot-Garcia/p/book/9780815344506) Knowledge Illusion – Why We Never Think Alone:...

california los angeles germany phd teaching data ucla biology casper github dresden bois donnell proudly caltech aaron jones bruin lbs bayesian max planck institute cameron smith mega ran bayes biological engineering james thompson james wade mc lars teaching professor baba brinkman rick anderson robin taylor david haas patrick kelley physical biology aubrey clayton michael betancourt adam c smith

#69 Why, When & How to use Bayes Factors, with Jorge Tendeiro

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 5, 2022 53:41

Proudly sponsored by https://www.pymc-labs.io/ (PyMC Labs), the Bayesian Consultancy. https://calendar.google.com/calendar/appointments/schedules/AcZssZ1nOI_SElJzSiQ2sXBDiaW9w98ErjnHVzmHcSilYNWeXxJgV870NGuWZUGo3W-8-gDG8jIXQhBf (Book a call), or get in touch! A great franchise comes with a great rivalry: Marvel has Iron Man and Captain America; physics has General Relativity and Quantum Physics; and Bayesian stats has Posterior Estimation and… Bayes Factors! A few months ago, I had the pleasure of hosting EJ Wagenmakers, to talk about these topics. This time, I'm talking with Jorge Tendeiro, who has a different perspective on Null Hypothesis Testing in the Bayesian framework, and its relationship with generative models and posterior estimation. But this is not your classic, click-baity podcast, and I'm not interested in pitching people against each other. Instead, you'll hear Jorge talk about the other perspective fairly, before even giving his take on the topic. Jorge will also tell us about the difficulty of arguing through papers, and all the nuances you lose compared to casual discussions. But who is Jorge Tendeiro? He is a professor at Hiroshima University in Japan, and he was recommended to me by Pablo Bernabeu, a listener of this very podcast. Before moving to Japan, Jorge studied math and applied stats at the University of Porto, and did his PhD in the Netherlands. He focuses on item response theory (specifically person fit analysis), and, of course, Bayesian statistics, mostly Bayes factors. He's also passionate about privacy issues in the 21st century, an avid Linux user since 2006, and is trying to get the hang of the Japanese language. Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ (https://bababrinkman.com/) ! Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible! Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, Adam Bartonicek, William Benton, Alan O'Donnell, Mark Ormsby, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Elea McDonnell Feit, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, George Ho, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Matthew McAnear, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Luis Iberico, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Aaron Jones, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, David Haas and Robert Yolken. Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats (https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats) to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;) Links from the show: Jorge's website: https://www.jorgetendeiro.com/ (https://www.jorgetendeiro.com/) Jorge on Twitter: https://twitter.com/jntendeiro (https://twitter.com/jntendeiro) Jorge on GitHub: https://github.com/jorgetendeiro (https://github.com/jorgetendeiro) A Review of Issues About Null Hypothesis Bayesian Testing: https://pure.rug.nl/ws/portalfiles/portal/159021509/2019_26880_001.pdf (https://pure.rug.nl/ws/portalfiles/portal/159021509/2019_26880_001.pdf) Advantages Masquerading as ‘Issues' in Bayesian Hypothesis Testing – A Commentary on Tendeiro and Kiers: https://psyarxiv.com/nf7rp (https://psyarxiv.com/nf7rp) On the white, the black, and the many shades of gray in between – Our reply to van Ravenzwaaij and Wagenmakers: https://psyarxiv.com/tjxvz/ (https://psyarxiv.com/tjxvz/) LBS

#68 Probabilistic Machine Learning & Generative Models, with Kevin Murphy

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 14, 2022 65:35

Proudly sponsored by https://www.pymc-labs.io/ (PyMC Labs), the Bayesian Consultancy. https://calendar.google.com/calendar/appointments/schedules/AcZssZ1nOI_SElJzSiQ2sXBDiaW9w98ErjnHVzmHcSilYNWeXxJgV870NGuWZUGo3W-8-gDG8jIXQhBf (Book a call), or get in touch! Hosting someone like Kevin Murphy on your podcast is… complicated. Not because Kevin himself is complicated (he's delightful, don't make me say what I didn't say!), but because all the questions I had for him amounted to a 12-hour show. Sooooo, brace yourselves folks! No, I'm kidding. Of course I didn't do that folks, Kevin has a life! This life started in Ireland, where he was born. He grew up in England and got his BA from the University of Cambridge. After his PhD at UC Berkeley, he did a postdoc at MIT, and was an associate professor of computer science and statistics at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver, Canada, from 2004 to 2012. After getting tenure, he went to Google in California in 2011 on his sabbatical and then ended up staying. He currently runs a team of about 8 researchers inside of Google Brain working on generative models, optimization, and other, as Kevin puts it, “basic” research topics in AI/ML. He has published over 125 papers in refereed conferences and journals, as well 3 textbooks on machine learning published in 2012, 2022 and the last one coming in 2023. You may be familiar with his 2012 book, as it was awarded the DeGroot Prize for best book in the field of statistical science. Outside of work, Kevin enjoys traveling, outdoor sports (especially tennis, snowboarding and scuba diving), as well as reading, cooking, and spending time with his family. Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ (https://bababrinkman.com/) ! Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible! Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, Adam Bartonicek, William Benton, Alan O'Donnell, Mark Ormsby, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Elea McDonnell Feit, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, George Ho, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Matthew McAnear, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Luis Iberico, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Aaron Jones, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Lin Yu Sha, Scott Anthony Robson, David Haas and Robert Yolken. Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats (https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats) to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;) Links from the show: Kevin's website: https://www.cs.ubc.ca/~murphyk/ (https://www.cs.ubc.ca/~murphyk/) Kevin on Twitter: https://mobile.twitter.com/sirbayes (https://mobile.twitter.com/sirbayes) Kevin's books (free pdf) on GitHub (includes a link to places where you can buy the hard copy): https://probml.github.io/pml-book/ (https://probml.github.io/pml-book/) Book that inspired Kevin to get into AI: https://www.amazon.com/G%C3%B6del-Escher-Bach-Eternal-Golden/dp/0465026567 (https://www.amazon.com/G%C3%B6del-Escher-Bach-Eternal-Golden/dp/0465026567) State-space models library in JAX (WIP): https://github.com/probml/ssm-jax (https://github.com/probml/ssm-jax) Other software for the book (also in JAX): https://github.com/probml/pyprobml (https://github.com/probml/pyprobml) Fun photo of...

#67 Exoplanets, Cool Worlds & Life in the Universe, with David Kipping

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 31, 2022 60:42

Proudly sponsored by https://www.pymc-labs.io/ (PyMC Labs), the Bayesian Consultancy. https://calendar.google.com/calendar/appointments/schedules/AcZssZ1nOI_SElJzSiQ2sXBDiaW9w98ErjnHVzmHcSilYNWeXxJgV870NGuWZUGo3W-8-gDG8jIXQhBf (Book a call), or get in touch! Is there life in the Universe? It doesn't get deeper than this, does it? And yet, why do we care about that? In the very small chance that there is other life in the Universe, we have even less chance to discover it, talk to it and meet it. So, why do we care? Well, it may surprise you but Bayesian statistics helps us think about these astronomical and — dare I say? — philosophical topics, as my guest, David Kipping, will brilliantly explain in this episode. David is an Associate Professor of Astronomy at Columbia University, where he leads the Cool Worlds Lab — I know, the name is awesome. His team's research spans exoplanet discovery and characterization, the search for life in the Universe and developing novel approaches to our exploration of the cosmos. David also teaches astrostatistics, and his contributions to Bayesian statistics span astrobiology to exoplanet detection. He also hosts the Cool Worlds YouTube channel, with over half a million subscribers, that discusses his team's work and broader topics within the field. Cool worlds, cool guest, cool episode. Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ (https://bababrinkman.com/) ! Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible! Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, Adam Bartonicek, William Benton, Alan O'Donnell, Mark Ormsby, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Elea McDonnell Feit, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, George Ho, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Matthew McAnear, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Luis Iberico, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Aaron Jones, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Lin Yu Sha, Scott Anthony Robson, David Haas and Robert Yolken. Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats (https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats) to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;) Links from the show: David's website: http://user.astro.columbia.edu/~dkipping/ (http://user.astro.columbia.edu/~dkipping/) David on Twitter: https://twitter.com/david_kipping (https://twitter.com/david_kipping) David's YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/coolworldslab (https://www.youtube.com/c/coolworldslab) David's research group: https://www.coolworldslab.com/ (https://www.coolworldslab.com/) Bayesian analysis of the astrobiological implications of life's early emergence on Earth : https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1111694108 (https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1111694108) We Have No Idea – A Guide to the Unknown Universe : https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/31625636-we-have-no-idea (https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/31625636-we-have-no-idea) Leonardo da Vinci's biography by Walter Isaacson: https://www.amazon.com/Leonardo-Vinci-Walter-Isaacson/dp/1501139169/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=leonardo+da+vinci+book&qid=1660142880&sprefix=leonardo+%2Caps%2C219&sr=8-1...

earth universe associate professor worlds columbia university casper astronomy vinci donnell proudly aaron jones bruin exoplanets bayesian walter isaacson cameron smith mega ran james thompson kipping james wade mc lars baba brinkman rick anderson robin taylor david haas patrick kelley unknown universe aubrey clayton we have no idea a guide adam c smith

#66 Uncertainty Visualization & Usable Stats, with Matthew Kay

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 17, 2022 61:57

Proudly sponsored by https://www.pymc-labs.io/ (PyMC Labs), the Bayesian Consultancy. https://calendar.google.com/calendar/appointments/schedules/AcZssZ1nOI_SElJzSiQ2sXBDiaW9w98ErjnHVzmHcSilYNWeXxJgV870NGuWZUGo3W-8-gDG8jIXQhBf (Book a call), or get in touch! I have to confess something: I love challenges. And when you're a podcaster, what's a better challenge than dedicating an episode to… visualization? Impossible you say? Well, challenge accepted! Thankfully, I got the help of a visualization Avenger for this episode — namely, Matthew Kay. Matt is an Assistant Professor jointly appointed in Computer Science and Communications Studies at Northwestern University, where he co-directs the Midwest Uncertainty Collective — I know, it's a pretty cool name for a lab. He works in human-computer interaction and information visualization, and especially in uncertainty visualization. He also builds tools to support uncertainty visualization in R. In particular, he's the author of the tidybayes and ggdist R packages, and wrote the random variable interface in the posterior package. I promise, you won't be uncertain about the importance of uncertainty visualization after that… Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ (https://bababrinkman.com/) ! Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible! Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, Adam Bartonicek, William Benton, Alan O'Donnell, Mark Ormsby, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Elea McDonnell Feit, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, George Ho, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Matthew McAnear, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Luis Iberico, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Aaron Jones, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Lin Yu Sha and Scott Anthony Robson. Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats (https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats) to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;) Links from the show: Matt on Twitter: https://twitter.com/mjskay (https://twitter.com/mjskay) Matt on GitHub: https://github.com/mjskay (https://github.com/mjskay) Matt's website: https://www.mjskay.com/ (https://www.mjskay.com/) Midwest Uncertainty Collective lab: https://mucollective.northwestern.edu/ (https://mucollective.northwestern.edu/) PyMC find_constrained_priors tutorial: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9shZeqKG3M0 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9shZeqKG3M0) PyMC find_constrained_priors doc: https://www.pymc.io/projects/docs/en/latest/api/generated/pymc.find_constrained_prior.html?highlight=find_constrained_priors (https://www.pymc.io/projects/docs/en/latest/api/generated/pymc.find_constrained_prior.html) Tutorials / package documentation / videos: tidybayes: http://mjskay.github.io/tidybayes/ (http://mjskay.github.io/tidybayes/) ggdist: https://mjskay.github.io/ggdist/ (https://mjskay.github.io/ggdist/) (various visualizations in the slabinterval vignette: https://mjskay.github.io/ggdist/articles/slabinterval.html (https://mjskay.github.io/ggdist/articles/slabinterval.html) ) Miscellaneous uncertainty visualizations examples: https://github.com/mjskay/uncertainty-examples (https://github.com/mjskay/uncertainty-examples) Talk on uncertainty...

#65 PyMC, Aeppl, & Aesara: the new cool kids on the block, with Ricardo Vieira

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 3, 2022 65:28

Proudly sponsored by https://www.pymc-labs.io/ (PyMC Labs), the Bayesian Consultancy. https://calendar.google.com/calendar/appointments/schedules/AcZssZ1nOI_SElJzSiQ2sXBDiaW9w98ErjnHVzmHcSilYNWeXxJgV870NGuWZUGo3W-8-gDG8jIXQhBf (Book a call), or get in touch! Folks, there are some new cool kids on the block. They are called PyMC, Aeppl, and Aesara, and it's high time we give us a proper welcome! To do that, who better than one of the architects of the new PyMC 4.0 — Ricardo Vieira! In this episode, he'll walk us through the inner workings of the newly released version of PyMC, telling us why the Aesara backend and the brand new RandomVariable operators constitute such strong foundations for your beloved PyMC models. He will also tell us about a self-contained PPL project called Aeppl, dedicated to converting model graphs to probability functions — pretty cool, right? Oh, in case you didn't guess yet, Ricardo is a PyMC developer and data scientist at PyMC Labs. He spent several years teaching himself Statistics and Computer Science at the expense of his official degrees in Psychology and Neuroscience. So, get ready for efficient random generator functions, better probability evaluation functions, and a fully-fledged modern Bayesian workflow! Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ (https://bababrinkman.com/) ! Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible! Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, Adam Bartonicek, William Benton, Alan O'Donnell, Mark Ormsby, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Elea McDonnell Feit, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, George Ho, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Matthew McAnear, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Luis Iberico, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Aaron Jones, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Lin Yu Sha and Scott Anthony Robson. Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats (https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats) to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;) Links from the show: Ricardo on Twitter: https://twitter.com/RicardoV944 (https://twitter.com/RicardoV944) Ricardo on GitHub: https://github.com/ricardoV94/ (https://github.com/ricardoV94/) Ricardo's website: https://ricardov94.github.io/posts/ (https://ricardov94.github.io/posts/) PyMC, Aesara and Aeppl: The New Kids on The Block (YouTube video): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_APNiXTfYJw (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_APNiXTfYJw) Bayesian Vector Autoregression in PyMC: https://www.pymc-labs.io/blog-posts/bayesian-vector-autoregression/ (https://www.pymc-labs.io/blog-posts/bayesian-vector-autoregression/) New PyMC website: https://www.pymc.io/projects/docs/en/stable/learn.html (https://www.pymc.io/projects/docs/en/stable/learn.html) Define, optimize, and evaluate mathematical expressions with Aesara: https://aesara.readthedocs.io/en/latest/ (https://aesara.readthedocs.io/en/latest/) Aeppl documentation: https://aeppl.readthedocs.io/en/latest/ (https://aeppl.readthedocs.io/en/latest/) PyMC's YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/PyMCDevelopers (https://www.youtube.com/c/PyMCDevelopers) PyMC on Twitter: https://twitter.com/pymc_devs (https://twitter.com/pymc_devs) PyMC on LinkedIn:...

#64 Modeling the Climate & Gravity Waves, with Laura Mansfield

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 20, 2022 67:28

Proudly sponsored by https://www.pymc-labs.io/ (PyMC Labs), the Bayesian Consultancy. https://calendar.google.com/calendar/appointments/schedules/AcZssZ1nOI_SElJzSiQ2sXBDiaW9w98ErjnHVzmHcSilYNWeXxJgV870NGuWZUGo3W-8-gDG8jIXQhBf (Book a call), or get in touch! I'm sure you've already heard of gravitational waves, because my listeners are the coolest and smartest ever ;) But did you know about gravity waves? That's right, waves in the sky due to gravity — sounds awesome, right? Well, I'm pretty sure that Laura Mansfield will confirm your prior. Currently a postdoc at Stanford University, Laura studies — guess what? — gravity waves and how they are represented in climate models. In particular, she uses Bayesian methods to estimate the uncertainty on the gravity wave components of the models. Holding a PhD from the University of Reading in the UK, her background is in atmospheric physics, but she's interested in climate change and environmental issues. So seat back, chill out, and enjoy this physics-packed, aerial episode! Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ (https://bababrinkman.com/) ! Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible! Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, Adam Bartonicek, William Benton, Alan O'Donnell, Mark Ormsby, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Elea McDonnell Feit, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, George Ho, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Matthew McAnear, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Luis Iberico, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Aaron Jones, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Lin Yu Sha and Scott Anthony Robson. Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats (https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats) to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;) Links from the show: Laura on Twitter: https://twitter.com/lau_mansfield (https://twitter.com/lau_mansfield) Laura's webpage: https://profiles.stanford.edu/laura-mansfield (https://profiles.stanford.edu/laura-mansfield) Julia package for Gaussian Processes: https://github.com/STOR-i/GaussianProcesses.jl (https://github.com/STOR-i/GaussianProcesses.jl) Julia implementation of the scikit-learn API: https://github.com/cstjean/ScikitLearn.jl (https://github.com/cstjean/ScikitLearn.jl) Derivative-free Bayesian optimization techniques based on Ensemble Kalman Filters: https://github.com/CliMA/EnsembleKalmanProcesses.jl (https://github.com/CliMA/EnsembleKalmanProcesses.jl) This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podcorn - https://podcorn.com/privacy

university uk phd reading holding climate stanford university modeling api casper stor donnell proudly aaron jones bruin bayesian podcorn cameron smith derivative mega ran james thompson james wade mc lars baba brinkman rick anderson gravity waves robin taylor patrick kelley aubrey clayton laura mansfield adam c smith

#63 Media Mix Models & Bayes for Marketing, with Luciano Paz

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 28, 2022 74:43

Proudly sponsored by https://www.pymc-labs.io/ (PyMC Labs), the Bayesian Consultancy. https://calendar.google.com/calendar/appointments/schedules/AcZssZ1nOI_SElJzSiQ2sXBDiaW9w98ErjnHVzmHcSilYNWeXxJgV870NGuWZUGo3W-8-gDG8jIXQhBf (Book a call), or get in touch! Inviting someone like Luciano Paz on a stats podcast is both a pleasure and a challenge — he does so many things brilliantly that you have too many questions to ask him… In this episode, I've chosen — not without difficulty — to focus on the applications of Bayesian stats in the marketing industry, especially Media Mix Models. Ok, I also asked Luciano about other topics — but you know me, I like to talk… Originally, Luciano studied physics. He then did a PhD and postdoc in neuroscience, before transitioning into industry. During his time in academia, he used stats, machine learning and data science concepts here and there, but not in a very organized way. But at the end of his postdoc, he got into PyMC — and that's when everything changed… He loved the community and decided to hop on board to exit academia into a better life. After leaving academia, he worked at a company that wanted to do data science but that, for privacy reasons, didn't have a lot of data. And now, Luciano is one of the folks working full time at the PyMC Labs consultancy. But Luciano is not only one of the cool nerds building this crazy Bayesian adventures. He also did a lot of piano and ninjutsu. Sooooo, don't provoke him — either in the streets or at a karaoke bar… Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ (https://bababrinkman.com/) ! Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible! Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, Adam Bartonicek, William Benton, Alan O'Donnell, Mark Ormsby, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Elea McDonnell Feit, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, George Ho, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Matthew McAnear, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Luis Iberico, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Aaron Jones, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh and Lin Yu Sha. Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats (https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats) to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;) Links from the show: Luciano's website: https://lucianopaz.github.io/ (https://lucianopaz.github.io/) Luciano on GitHub: https://github.com/lucianopaz (https://github.com/lucianopaz) Luciano on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/luciano-paz-4139b5123/ (https://www.linkedin.com/in/luciano-paz-4139b5123/) Bayesian Media Mix Modeling for Marketing Optimization: https://www.pymc-labs.io/blog-posts/bayesian-media-mix-modeling-for-marketing-optimization/ (https://www.pymc-labs.io/blog-posts/bayesian-media-mix-modeling-for-marketing-optimization/) Improving the Speed and Accuracy of Bayesian Media Mix Models: https://www.pymc-labs.io/blog-posts/reducing-customer-acquisition-costs-how-we-helped-optimizing-hellofreshs-marketing-budget/ (https://www.pymc-labs.io/blog-posts/reducing-customer-acquisition-costs-how-we-helped-optimizing-hellofreshs-marketing-budget/) Speeding up HelloFresh's Bayesian AB tests by 60x:...

#62 Bayesian Generative Modeling for Healthcare, with Maria Skoularidou

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 8, 2022 57:05

We talk a lot about generative modeling on this podcast — at least since episode 6, with Michael Betancourt! And an area where this way of modeling is particularly useful is healthcare, as Maria Skoularidou will tell us in this episode. Maria is a final year PhD student at the University of Cambridge. Her thesis is focused on probabilistic machine learning and, more precisely, towards using generative modeling in… you guessed it: healthcare! But her fields of interest are diverse: from theory and methodology of machine intelligence to Bayesian inference; from theoretical computer science to information theory — Maria is knowledgeable in a lot of topics! That's why I also had to ask her about mixture models, a category of models that she uses frequently. Prior to her PhD, Maria studied Computer Science and Statistical Science at Athens University of Economics and Business. She's also invested in several efforts to bring more diversity and accessibility in the data science world. When she's not working on all this, you'll find her playing the ney, trekking or rawing. Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ (https://bababrinkman.com/) ! Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible! Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, Adam Bartonicek, William Benton, Alan O'Donnell, Mark Ormsby, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Elea McDonnell Feit, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, George Ho, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Matthew McAnear, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Luis Iberico, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Aaron Jones, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton and Jeannine Sue. Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats (https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats) to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;) Links from the show: Maria on Twitter: https://twitter.com/skoularidou (https://twitter.com/skoularidou) Maria on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/maria-skoularidou-1289b62a/ (https://www.linkedin.com/in/maria-skoularidou-1289b62a/) Maria's webpage: https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/people/in-alphabetical-order/n-to-s/maria-skoularidou/ (https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/people/in-alphabetical-order/n-to-s/maria-skoularidou/) Mixture models in PyMC: https://www.pymc.io/projects/examples/en/latest/gallery.html#mixture-models (https://www.pymc.io/projects/examples/en/latest/gallery.html#mixture-models) LBS #4 Dirichlet Processes and Neurodegenerative Diseases, with Karin Knudson: https://learnbayesstats.com/episode/4-dirichlet-processes-and-neurodegenerative-diseases-with-karin-knudson/ (https://learnbayesstats.com/episode/4-dirichlet-processes-and-neurodegenerative-diseases-with-karin-knudson/) Bayesian mixtures with an unknown number of components: https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1467-9868.00095 (https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1467-9868.00095) Markov Chain sampling methods for Dirichlet Processes: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10618600.2000.10474879 (https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10618600.2000.10474879) Retrospective Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for Dirichlet process hierarchical models: https://academic.oup.com/biomet/article-abstract/95/1/169/219181...

university business phd healthcare economics cambridge computer science modeling casper generative monte carlo donnell aaron jones bruin lbs bayesian cameron smith mixture neurodegenerative diseases mega ran james thompson james wade mc lars baba brinkman rick anderson robin taylor patrick kelley statistical science markov chains dirichlet aubrey clayton michael betancourt adam c smith

#61 Why we still use non-Bayesian methods, with EJ Wagenmakers

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later May 19, 2022 76:45

The big problems with classic hypothesis testing are well-known. And yet, a huge majority of statistical analyses are still conducted this way. Why is it? Why are things so hard to change? Can you even do (and should you do) hypothesis testing in the Bayesian framework? I guess if you wanted to name this episode in a very Marvelian way, it would be “Bayes factors against the p-values of madness” — but we won't do that, it wouldn't be appropriate, would it? Anyways, in this episode, I'll talk about all these very light and consensual topics with Eric-Jan Wagenmakers, a professor at the Psychological Methods Unit of the University of Amsterdam. For almost two decades, EJ has staunchly advocated the use of Bayesian inference in psychology. In order to lower the bar for the adoption of Bayesian methods, he is coordinating the development of JASP, an open-source software program that allows practitioners to conduct state-of-the-art Bayesian analyses with their mouse — the one from the computer, not the one from Disney. EJ has also written a children's book on Bayesian inference with the title “Bayesian thinking for toddlers”. Rumor has it that he is also working on a multi-volume series for adults — but shhh, that's a secret! EJ's lab publishes regularly on a host of Bayesian topics, so check out his website, particularly when you are interested in Bayesian hypothesis testing. The same goes for his blog by the way, “BayesianSpectacles”. Wait, what's that? EJ is telling me that he plays chess, squash, and that, most importantly, he enjoys watching arm wrestling videos on YouTube — yet another proof that, yes, you can find everything on YouTube. Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ (https://bababrinkman.com/) ! Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible! Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, Adam Bartonicek, William Benton, Alan O'Donnell, Mark Ormsby, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Elea McDonnell Feit, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, George Ho, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Matthew McAnear, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Luis Iberico, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Aaron Jones, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland and Aubrey Clayton. Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats (https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats) to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;) Links from the show: EJ's website: http://ejwagenmakers.com/ (http://ejwagenmakers.com/) EJ on Twitter: https://twitter.com/EJWagenmakers (https://twitter.com/EJWagenmakers) “Bayesian Cognitive Modeling” book website: https://bayesmodels.com/ (https://bayesmodels.com/) Port of “Bayesian Cognitive Modeling” to PyMC: https://github.com/pymc-devs/pymc-resources/tree/main/BCM (https://github.com/pymc-devs/pymc-resources/tree/main/BCM) EJ's blog: http://www.bayesianspectacles.org/ (http://www.bayesianspectacles.org/) JASP software website: https://jasp-stats.org/ (https://jasp-stats.org/) Bayesian Thinking for Toddlers: https://psyarxiv.com/w5vbp/ (https://psyarxiv.com/w5vbp/) LBS #31, Bayesian Cognitive Modeling & Decision-Making with Michael Lee: https://www.learnbayesstats.com/episode/31-bayesian-cognitive-modeling-michael-lee...

university disney amsterdam rumors port decision making toddlers casper ej donnell aaron jones bruin lbs bayesian cameron smith michael lee bayes mega ran bcm james thompson james wade mc lars baba brinkman rick anderson robin taylor jasp patrick kelley aubrey clayton bayesian methods adam c smith

#60 Modeling Dialogues & Languages, with J.P. de Ruiter

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 30, 2022 72:35

Why do we, humans, communicate? And how? And isn't that a problem that to study communication we have to… communicate? Did you ever ask yourself that? Because J.P. de Ruiter did — and does everyday. But he's got good reasons: JP is a cognitive scientist whose primary research focus is on the cognitive foundations of human communication. He aims to improve our understanding of how humans and artificial agents use language, gesture and other types of signals to effectively communicate with each other. Currently he has one of the two Bridge Professorship at Tufts University, and has been appointed in both the Computer Science and Psychology departments. In this episode, we'll look at why Bayes is helpful in dialogue research, what the future of the field looks like to JP, and how he uses PyMC in his own teaching. Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ (https://bababrinkman.com/) ! Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible! Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, Adam Bartonicek, William Benton, Alan O'Donnell, Mark Ormsby, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Elea McDonnell Feit, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, George Ho, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Matthew McAnear, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Luis Iberico, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Aaron Jones, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai and Steven Rowland. Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats (https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats) to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;) Links from the show: JP's page: https://sites.tufts.edu/hilab/people/ (https://sites.tufts.edu/hilab/people/) Projecting the End of a Speaker's Turn – A Cognitive Cornerstone of Conversation: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/236787756_Projecting_the_End_of_a_Speaker's_Turn_A_Cognitive_Cornerstone_of_Conversation (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/236787756_Projecting_the_End_of_a_Speaker's_Turn_A_Cognitive_Cornerstone_of_Conversation) Cognitive and social delays in the initiation of conversational repair: https://journals.uic.edu/ojs/index.php/dad/article/view/11388 (https://journals.uic.edu/ojs/index.php/dad/article/view/11388) Using uh and um in spontaneous speaking: http://www.columbia.edu/~rmk7/HC/HC_Readings/Clark_Fox.pdf (http://www.columbia.edu/~rmk7/HC/HC_Readings/Clark_Fox.pdf) Status of Frustrator as an Inhibitor of Horn-Honking Responses: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00224545.1968.9933615 (https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00224545.1968.9933615) A Simplest Systematics for the Organization of Turn-Taking for Conversation: https://www.jstor.org/stable/412243 (https://www.jstor.org/stable/412243) Richard McElreath, Science Before Statistics – Intro to Causal Inference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNPYUVmY3NM (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNPYUVmY3NM) The Prosecutor's fallacy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosecutor%27s_fallacy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosecutor%27s_fallacy) The Monty Hall problem: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem) LBS #50, Ta(l)king Risks & Embracing Uncertainty, with David Spiegelhalter:...

#59 Bayesian Modeling in Civil Engineering, with Michael Faber

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 14, 2022 59:13

In large-scale one-off civil infrastructure, decision-making under uncertainty is part of the job, that's just how it is. But, civil engineers don't get the luxury of building 10^6 versions of the bridge, offshore wind turbine or aeronautical structure to consider a relative frequency interpretation! And as you'll hear, challenges don't stop there: you also have to consider natural hazards such as earthquakes, rockfall and typhoons — in case you were wondering, civil engineering is not among the boring jobs! To talk about these original topics, I had the pleasure to host Michael Faber. Michael is a Professor at the Department of Built Environment at Aalborg University, Denmark, the President of the Joint Committee on Structural Safety and is a tremendously deep thinker on the Bayesian interpretation of probability as it pertains to the risk-informed management of big infrastructure. His research interests are directed on governance and management of risks, resilience and sustainability in the built environment — doing all that with Bayesian probabilistic modeling and applied Bayesian decision analysis, as you'll hear. Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ (https://bababrinkman.com/) ! Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible! Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Brian Huey, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, Adam Bartonicek, William Benton, Alan O'Donnell, Mark Ormsby, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Elea McDonnell Feit, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, George Ho, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Matthew McAnear, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Luis Iberico, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Aaron Jones, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai and Steven Rowland. Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats (https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats) to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;) Links from the show: Michael's profile on Aalborg University: https://vbn.aau.dk/en/persons/100493 (https://vbn.aau.dk/en/persons/100493) Michael's LinkedIn profile: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-havbro-faber-22898414/ (https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-havbro-faber-22898414/) Statistics and Probability Theory - In Pursuit of Engineering Decision Support: https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-94-007-4056-3 (https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-94-007-4056-3) Bayes in Civil Engineering - an abridged personal account of research and applications: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/bayes-civil-engineering-michael-havbro-faber (https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/bayes-civil-engineering-michael-havbro-faber) Website of the Joint Committee on Structural Safety (JCSS): https://www.jcss-lc.org/ (https://www.jcss-lc.org/) This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podcorn - https://podcorn.com/privacy

#58 Bayesian Modeling and Computation, with Osvaldo Martin, Ravin Kumar and Junpeng Lao

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 21, 2022 69:26

You know when you have friends who wrote a book and pressure you to come on your podcast? That's super annoying, right? Well that's not what happened with https://twitter.com/canyon289 (Ravin Kumar), https://twitter.com/aloctavodia (Osvaldo Martin) and https://twitter.com/junpenglao (Junpeng Lao) — I was the one who suggested doing a special episode about their new book, https://bayesiancomputationbook.com/welcome.html (Bayesian Modeling and Computation in Python). And since they cannot say no to my soothing French accent, well, they didn't say no… All of them were on the podcast already, so I'll refer you to their solo episode for background on their background — aka backgroundception. Junpeng is a Data Scientist at Google, living in Zurich, Switzerland. Previously, he was a post-doc in Psychology and Cognitive Neuroscience. His current obsessions are time series and state space models. Osvaldo is a Researcher at CONICET in Argentina and the Department of Computer Science from Aalto University in Finland. He is especially motivated by the development and implementation of software tools for Bayesian statistics and probabilistic modeling. Ravin is a data scientist at Google, living in Los Angeles. Previously he worked at Sweetgreen and SpaceX. He became interested in Bayesian statistics when trying to quantify uncertainty in operations. He is especially interested in decision science in business settings. You'll make your own opinion, but I like their book because uses a hands-on approach, focusing on the practice of applied statistics. And you get to see how to use diverse libraries, like PyMC, Tensorflow Probability, ArviZ, Bambi, and so on. You'll see what I'm talking about in this episode. To top it off, the book is fully available online at https://bayesiancomputationbook.com/welcome.html (bayesiancomputationbook.com). If you want a physical copy (because you love those guys and wanna support them), go to CRC website and enter the code FMQ13 at checkout for a 20% discount. Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ (https://bababrinkman.com/) ! Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible! Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Brian Huey, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, Adam Bartonicek, William Benton, Alan O'Donnell, Mark Ormsby, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Elea McDonnell Feit, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, George Ho, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Matthew McAnear, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Luis Iberico, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Aaron Jones, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M and Mason Yahr. Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats (https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats) to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;) Links from the show: Website of the book: https://bayesiancomputationbook.com/welcome.html (https://bayesiancomputationbook.com/welcome.html) LBS #1 -- Bayes, open-source and bioinformatics, with Osvaldo Martin: https://www.learnbayesstats.com/episode/1-bayes-open-source-and-bioinformatics-with-osvaldo-martin (https://www.learnbayesstats.com/episode/1-bayes-open-source-and-bioinformatics-with-osvaldo-martin) Osvaldo on Twitter: https://twitter.com/aloctavodia (https://twitter.com/aloctavodia) LBS #26 -- What you'll learn & who you'll meet at the PyMC Conference, with Ravin...

#57 Forecasting French Elections, with... Mystery Guest

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 3, 2022 81:49

No, no, don't leave! You did not click on the wrong button. You are indeed on Alex Andorra's podcast. The podcast that took the Bayesian world by a storm: “Learning Bayesian Statistics”, and that Barack Obama deemed “the best podcast in the whole galaxy” – or maybe Alex said that, I don't remember. Alex made us discover new methods, new ideas, and mostly new people. But what do we really know about him? Does he even really exist? To find this out I put on my Frenchest beret, a baguette under my arm, and went undercover to try to find him. And I did ! So today for a special episode I, https://www.learnbayesstats.com/episode/44-bayesian-models-at-scale-remi-louf (Rémi Louf), will be the one asking questions and making bad jokes with a French accent. Before letting him in, here's what I got on him so far. By day, Alex is a Bayesian modeler at the https://www.pymc-labs.io/ (PyMC Labs) consultancy. By night, he doesn't (yet) fight crime but he's an open-source enthusiast and core contributor to https://docs.pymc.io/en/v3/ (PyMC) and https://arviz-devs.github.io/ (ArviZ). An always-learning statistician, Alex loves building models and https://github.com/pollsposition/models (studying elections) and human behavior. When he's not working, he loves hiking, exercising, meditating and reading nerdy books and novels. He also loves chocolate a bit too much, but he doesn't like talking about it – he prefers eating it. Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ (https://bababrinkman.com/) ! Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible! Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Brian Huey, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, Adam Bartonicek, William Benton, Alan O'Donnell, Mark Ormsby, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Elea McDonnell Feit, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, George Ho, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Matthew McAnear, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Luis Iberico, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Aaron Jones, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo and Fergal M. Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats (https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats) to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;) Links from the show: Alex on Twitter: https://twitter.com/alex_andorra (https://twitter.com/alex_andorra) Alex on GitHub: https://github.com/AlexAndorra (https://github.com/AlexAndorra) Alex on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/aandorra-pollsposition/ (https://www.linkedin.com/in/aandorra-pollsposition/) Intuitive Bayes Introductory Course: https://www.intuitivebayes.com/ (https://www.intuitivebayes.com/) PyMC Labs consultancy: https://www.pymc-labs.io/ (https://www.pymc-labs.io/) PollsPosition GitHub repository: https://github.com/pollsposition (https://github.com/pollsposition) French Presidents' popularity dashboard: https://www.pollsposition.com/popularity (https://www.pollsposition.com/popularity) Learning Bayesian Statistics YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCAwVseuhVrpJFfik_cMHrhQ (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCAwVseuhVrpJFfik_cMHrhQ) Love the podcast? Leave a review on Podchaser: https://www.podchaser.com/podcasts/learning-bayesian-statistics-932588 (https://www.podchaser.com/podcasts/learning-bayesian-statistics-932588) This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podcorn -...

#56 Causal & Probabilistic Machine Learning, with Robert Osazuwa Ness

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 16, 2022 68:57

Did you know there is a relationship between the size of firetrucks and the amount of damage down to a flat during a fire? The bigger the truck sent to put out the fire, the bigger the damages tend to be. The solution is simple: just send smaller firetrucks! Wait, that doesn't sound right, does it? Our brain is a huge causal machine, so it can instinctively feel it's not credible that size of truck and amount of damage done are causally related: there must be another variable explaining the correlation. Here, it's of course the seriousness of the fire — even better, it's the common cause of the two correlated variables. Your brain does that automatically, but what about your computer? How do you make sure it doesn't just happily (and mistakenly) report the correlation? That's when causal inference and machine learning enter the stage, as Robert Osazuwa Ness will tell us. Robert has a PhD in statistics from Purdue University. He currently works as a Research Scientist at Microsoft Research and a founder of altdeep.ai, which teaches live cohort-based courses on advanced topics in applied modeling. As you'll hear, his research focuses on the intersection of causal and probabilistic machine learning. Maybe that's why I invited him on the show… Well, who knows, causal inference is very hard! Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ (https://bababrinkman.com/) ! Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible! Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Brian Huey, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, Adam Bartonicek, William Benton, Alan O'Donnell, Mark Ormsby, Demetri Pananos, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Elea McDonnell Feit, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, George Ho, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Matthew McAnear, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Luis Iberico, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Aaron Jones, Daniel Lindroth, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer and Michael DeCrescenzo. Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats (https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats) to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;) Links from the show: Robert's webpage: https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/people/robertness/ (https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/people/robertness/) Robert on Twitter: https://twitter.com/osazuwa (https://twitter.com/osazuwa) Robert on GitHub: https://github.com/robertness (https://github.com/robertness) Robert on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/osazuwa/ (https://www.linkedin.com/in/osazuwa/) Do-calculus enables causal reasoning with latent variable models, Arxiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2102.06626 (https://arxiv.org/abs/2102.06626) Integrating Markov processes with structural causal modeling enables counterfactual inference in complex systems, NeurIPS Proceedings: https://proceedings.neurips.cc/paper/2019/hash/2d44e06a7038f2dd98f0f54c4be35e22-Abstract.html (https://proceedings.neurips.cc/paper/2019/hash/2d44e06a7038f2dd98f0f54c4be35e22-Abstract.html) Causality 101 with Robert Ness, The TWIML AI Podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UNEZztT5lpk (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UNEZztT5lpk) Causal Modeling in Machine Learning, PyData Boston: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1BioSmE5m6s (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1BioSmE5m6s) Pyro -- Deep Universal Probabilistic Programming: http://pyro.ai/ (http://pyro.ai/) Statistical Rethinking...

#55 Neuropsychology, Illusions & Bending Reality, with Dominique Makowski

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 31, 2022 73:38

What's the common point between fiction, fake news, illusions and meditation? They can all be studied with Bayesian statistics, of course! In this mind-bending episode, Dominique Makowski will for sure expand your horizon. Trained as a clinical neuropsychologist, he is currently working as a postdoc at the Clinical Brain Lab in Singapore, in which he leads the Reality Bending Team. What's reality-bending you ask? Well, you'll have to listen to the episode, but I can already tell you we'll go through a journey in scientific methodology, history of art, religion, and philosophy — what else? Beyond that, Dominique tries to improve the access to advanced analysis techniques by developing open-source software and tools, like the NeuroKit Python package or the bayestestR package in R. Even better, he looks a lot like his figures of reference. Like Marcus Aurelius, he plays the piano and guitar. Like Sisyphus, he loves history of art and comparative mythology. And like Yoda, he is a wakeboard master. Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ (https://bababrinkman.com/) ! Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible! Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Brian Huey, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, Adam Bartonicek, William Benton, Alan O'Donnell, Mark Ormsby, Demetri Pananos, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Elea McDonnell Feit, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, George Ho, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Matthew McAnear, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Luis Iberico, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Aaron Jones, Daniel Lindroth, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer and Michael DeCrescenzo. Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats (https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats) to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;) Links from the show: To follow: Dominique's website: https://dominiquemakowski.github.io/ (https://dominiquemakowski.github.io/) Dominique on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Dom_Makowski (https://twitter.com/Dom_Makowski) Dominique on GitHub: https://github.com/DominiqueMakowski (https://github.com/DominiqueMakowski) Packages: NeuroKit -- Python Toolbox for Neurophysiological Signal Processing: https://github.com/neuropsychology/NeuroKit (https://github.com/neuropsychology/NeuroKit) bayestestR -- Become a Bayesian master you will: https://easystats.github.io/bayestestR/ (https://easystats.github.io/bayestestR/) report -- From R to your manuscript: https://easystats.github.io/report/ (https://easystats.github.io/report/) Research: The Reality Bending League :https://realitybending.github.io/research/ (https://realitybending.github.io/research/) What is Reality Bending: https://realitybending.github.io/post/2020-09-28-what_is_realitybending/ (https://realitybending.github.io/post/2020-09-28-what_is_realitybending/) Art: NeuropsyXart -- Neuroimaging methods to obtain visual representations of neurophysiological processes: https://dominiquemakowski.github.io/NeuropsyXart/ (https://dominiquemakowski.github.io/NeuropsyXart/) This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podcorn - https://podcorn.com/privacy Support this podcast

#54 Bayes in Theoretical Ecology, with Florian Hartig

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 14, 2022 68:38

Let's be honest: evolution is awesome! I started reading Improbable Destinies: Fate, Chance, and the Future of Evolution, by Jonathan Losos, and I'm utterly fascinated. So I'm thrilled to welcome Florian Hartig on the show. Florian is a professor of Theoretical Ecology at the University of Regensburg, Germany. His research concentrates on theory, computer simulations, statistical methods and machine learning in ecology & evolution. He is also interested in open science and open software development, and maintains, among other projects, the R packages DHARMa and BayesianTools. Among other things, we talked about approximate Bayesian computation, best practices when building models and the big pain points that remain in the Bayesian pipeline. Most importantly, Florian's main hobbies are whitewater kayaking, snowboarding, badminton and playing the guitar. Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ (https://bababrinkman.com/) ! Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible! Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Brian Huey, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, Adam Bartonicek, William Benton, Alan O'Donnell, Mark Ormsby, Demetri Pananos, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Elea McDonnell Feit, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, George Ho, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Matthew McAnear, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Luis Iberico, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Aaron Jones and Daniel Lindroth. Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats (https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats) to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;) Links from the show: Florian's website: https://theoreticalecology.wordpress.com/ (https://theoreticalecology.wordpress.com/) Florian on Twitter: https://twitter.com/florianhartig (https://twitter.com/florianhartig) Florian on GitHub: https://github.com/florianhartig (https://github.com/florianhartig) DHARMa -- Residual Diagnostics for Hierarchical Regression Models: https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/DHARMa/index.html (https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/DHARMa/index.html) BayesianTools -- General-Purpose MCMC and SMC Samplers and Tools for Bayesian Statistics: https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/BayesianTools/index.html (https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/BayesianTools/index.html) Statistical inference for stochastic simulation inference -- theory and application: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2011.01640.x (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2011.01640.x) ArviZ plot rank function: https://arviz-devs.github.io/arviz/api/generated/arviz.plot_rank.html (https://arviz-devs.github.io/arviz/api/generated/arviz.plot_rank.html) Rank-normalization, folding, and localization -- An improved R-hat for assessing convergence of MCMC: https://arxiv.org/abs/1903.08008 (https://arxiv.org/abs/1903.08008) LBS #51 Bernoulli's Fallacy & the Crisis of Modern Science, with Aubrey Clayton: https://www.learnbayesstats.com/episode/51-bernoullis-fallacy-crisis-modern-science-aubrey-clayton (https://www.learnbayesstats.com/episode/51-bernoullis-fallacy-crisis-modern-science-aubrey-clayton) LBS #50 Ta(l)king Risks & Embracing Uncertainty, with David Spiegelhalter: https://www.learnbayesstats.com/episode/50-talking-risks-embracing-uncertainty-david-spiegelhalter... Support this podcast

#53 Bayesian Stats for the Behavioral & Neural Sciences, with Todd Hudson

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 28, 2021 56:12

Get a https://www.cambridge.org/it/academic/subjects/psychology/psychology-general-interest/bayesian-data-analysis-behavioral-and-neural-sciences-non-calculus-fundamentals?format=PB&isbn=9781108812900 (30% discount on Todd's book) by entering the code BDABNS22 at checkout! The behavioral and neural sciences are a nerdy interest of mine, but I didn't dedicate any episode to that topic yet. But life brings you gifts sometimes (especially around Christmas…), and here that gift is a book, Bayesian Data Analysis for the Behavioral and Neural Sciences, by Todd Hudson. Todd is a part of the faculty at New York University Grossman School of Medicine and also the New York University Tandon School of Engineering. He is a computational neuroscientist working in several areas including: early detection and grading of neurological disease; computational models of movement planning and learning; development of new computational and experimental techniques. He also co-founded Tactile Navigation Tools, which develops navigation aids for the visually impaired, and Third Eye Technologies, which develops low cost laboratory- and clinical-grade eyetracking technologies. As you'll hear, Todd wanted his book to bypass the need for advanced mathematics normally considered a prerequisite for this type of material. Basically, he wants students to be able to write code and models and understand equations, even they are not specialized in writing those equations. We'll also touch on some of the neural sciences examples he's got in the book, as well as the two general algorithms he uses for model measurement and model selection. Ow, I almost forgot the most important: Todd loves beekeeping and gardening — he's got 25 apple trees, 4 cherry trees, nectarines, figs, strawberries, etc! Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ (https://bababrinkman.com/) ! Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible! Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Brian Huey, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, Adam Bartonicek, William Benton, Alan O'Donnell, Mark Ormsby, Demetri Pananos, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Elea McDonnell Feit, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, George Ho, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Matthew McAnear, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Luis Iberico, Alejandro Morales, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Aaron Jones and Daniel Lindroth. Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats (https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats) to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;) Links from the show: 30% discount on Todd's book by entering BDABNS22 at checkout: https://www.cambridge.org/it/academic/subjects/psychology/psychology-general-interest/bayesian-data-analysis-behavioral-and-neural-sciences-non-calculus-fundamentals?format=PB&isbn=9781108812900 (https://www.cambridge.org/it/academic/subjects/psychology/psychology-general-interest/bayesian-data-analysis-behavioral-and-neural-sciences-non-calculus-fundamentals?format=PB&isbn=9781108812900) Book's webpage: https://www.hudsonlab.org/textbook (https://www.hudsonlab.org/textbook) For blurbs on each chapter: https://www.hudsonlab.org/textbookresources (https://www.hudsonlab.org/textbookresources) Code used in each chapter: https://www.hudsonlab.org/textbookresources (https://www.hudsonlab.org/textbook/f314a) For tutorials on Bayesian vs.... Support this podcast

#52 Election forecasting models in Germany, with Marcus Gross

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 9, 2021 58:08

Did I mention I like survey data, especially in the context of electoral forecasting? Probably not, as I'm a pretty shy and reserved man. Why are you laughing?? Yeah, that's true, I'm not that shy… but I did mention my interest for electoral forecasting already! And before doing a full episode where I'll talk about French elections (yes, that'll come at one point), let's talk about one of France's neighbors — Germany. Our German friends had federal elections a few weeks ago — consequential elections, since they had the hard task of replacing Angela Merkel, after 16 years in power. To talk about this election, I invited Marcus Gross on the show, because he worked on a Bayesian forecasting model to try and predict the results of this election — who will get elected as Chancellor, by how much and with which coalition? I was delighted to ask him about how the model works, how it accounts for the different sources of uncertainty — be it polling errors, unexpected turnout or media events — and, of course, how long it takes to sample (I think you'll be surprised by the answer). We also talked about the other challenge of this kind of work: communication — how do you communicate uncertainty effectively? How do you differentiate motivated reasoning from useful feedback? What were the most common misconceptions about the model? Marcus studied statistics in Munich and Berlin, and did a PhD on survey statistics and measurement error models in economics and archeology. He worked as a data scientist at INWT, a consulting firm with projects in different business fields as well as the public sector. Now, he is working at FlixMobility. Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ (https://bababrinkman.com/) ! Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible! Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Brian Huey, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, Adam Bartonicek, William Benton, Alan O'Donnell, Mark Ormsby, Demetri Pananos, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Elea McDonnell Feit, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, George Ho, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Matthew McAnear, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Luis Iberico, Alejandro Morales, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King and Aaron Jones. Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats (https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats) to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;) Links from the show: German election forecast website: https://www.wer-gewinnt-die-wahl.de/en (https://www.wer-gewinnt-die-wahl.de/en) Twitter account of electoral model: https://twitter.com/GerElectionFcst (https://twitter.com/GerElectionFcst) German election model code: https://github.com/INWTlab/lsTerm-election-forecast (https://github.com/INWTlab/lsTerm-election-forecast) LBS #27 -- Modeling the US Presidential Elections, with Andrew Gelman & Merlin Heidemanns: https://www.learnbayesstats.com/episode/27-modeling-the-us-presidential-elections-with-andrew-gelman-merlin-heidemanns (https://www.learnbayesstats.com/episode/27-modeling-the-us-presidential-elections-with-andrew-gelman-merlin-heidemanns) This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podcorn - https://podcorn.com/privacy Support this podcast

#51 Bernoulli's Fallacy & the Crisis of Modern Science, with Aubrey Clayton

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 22, 2021 69:25

You know I love epistemology — the study of how we know what we know. It was high time I dedicated a whole episode to this topic. And what better guest than Aubrey Clayton, the author of the book Bernoulli's Fallacy: Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science. I'm in the middle of reading it, and it's a really great read! Aubrey is a mathematician in Boston who teaches the philosophy of probability and statistics at the Harvard Extension School. He holds a PhD in mathematics from the University of California, Berkeley, and his writing has appeared in Pacific Standard, Nautilus, and the Boston Globe. We talked about what he deems “a catastrophic error in the logic of the standard statistical methods in almost all the sciences” and why this error manifests even outside of science, like in medicine, law, public policy, etc. But don't worry, we're not doomed — we'll also see where we go from there. As a big fan of E.T Jaynes, Aubrey will also tell us how this US scientist influenced his own thinking as well as the field of Bayesian inference in general. Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ (https://bababrinkman.com/) ! Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible! Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Brian Huey, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, Adam Bartonicek, William Benton, Alan O'Donnell, Mark Ormsby, Demetri Pananos, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Elea McDonnell Feit, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, George Ho, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Tim Radtke, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Matthew McAnear, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Luis Iberico, Alejandro Morales, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen and Andreas Netti. Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats (https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats) to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;) Links from the show: Aubrey's website: https://aubreyclayton.com/ (https://aubreyclayton.com/) Aubrey on Twitter: https://twitter.com/aubreyclayton (https://twitter.com/aubreyclayton) Bernoulli's Fallacy: https://aubreyclayton.com/bernoulli (https://aubreyclayton.com/bernoulli) Aubrey's probability theory lectures based on E.T Jayne's work: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL9v9IXDsJkktefQzX39wC2YG07vw7DsQ_ (https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL9v9IXDsJkktefQzX39wC2YG07vw7DsQ_) What Society Gets Wrong About Statistics: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fDulF2MzsIU (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fDulF2MzsIU) The Prosecutor's Fallacy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosecutor%27s_fallacy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosecutor%27s_fallacy) The Theory That Would Not Die -- How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/10672848-the-theory-that-would-not-die (https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/10672848-the-theory-that-would-not-die) LBS #18, How to ask good Research Questions and encourage Open Science, with Daniel Lakens: https://www.learnbayesstats.com/episode/18-how-to-ask-good-research-questions-and-encourage-open-science-with-daniel-lakens (https://www.learnbayesstats.com/episode/18-how-to-ask-good-research-questions-and-encourage-open-science-with-daniel-lakens) LBS #35, The Past, Present & Future of BRMS, with Paul Bürkner: https://www.learnbayesstats.com/episode/35-past-present-future-brms-paul-burkner (https://www.learnbayesstats.com/episode/35-past-present-future-brms-paul-burkner) LBS #40, Bayesian Stats... Support this podcast

#50 Ta(l)king Risks & Embracing Uncertainty, with David Spiegelhalter

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 6, 2021 64:28

Folks, this is the 50th episode of LBS — 50th! I never would have thought that there were so many Bayesian nerds in the world when I first interviewed Osvaldo Martin more than 2 years ago. To celebrate that random, crazy adventure, I wanted to do a special episode at any random point, and so it looks like it's gonna be #50! This episode is special by its guest, not its number — although my guest knows a thing or two about numbers. Most recently, he wrote the book Covid by Numbers. A mathematical statistician dedicated to helping the general public understand risk, uncertainty and decision-making, he's the author of several books on the topic actually, including The Art of Statistics. You may also know him from his podcast, Risky Talk, or his numerous appearances in newspapers, radio and TV shows. Did you guess who it is? Maybe you just know him as the reigning World Champion in Loop – a version of pool played on an elliptical table – and are just discovering now that he is a fantastic science communicator – something that turns out to be especially important for stats education in times of, let's say, global pandemic for instance. He holds a PhD in Mathematical Statistics from the University of London and has been the Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at Cambridge University since 2016. He was also the President of the famous Royal Statistical Society in 2017-2018. Most importantly, he was featured in BBC1's Winter Wipeout in 2011 – seriously, go check it out on his website; it's hilarious. So did you guess it yet? Yep, my guest for this episode is no other than Sir David Spiegelhalter — yes, there are Bayesian knights! Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ (https://bababrinkman.com/) ! Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible! Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Brian Huey, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, Adam Bartonicek, William Benton, Alan O'Donnell, Mark Ormsby, Demetri Pananos, James Ahloy, Jon Berezowski, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Elea McDonnell Feit, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, George Ho, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Tim Radtke, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Matthew McAnear, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Luis Iberico, Alejandro Morales and Tomáš Frýda. Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats (https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats) to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;) Links from the show: David's website: http://www.statslab.cam.ac.uk/~david/ (http://www.statslab.cam.ac.uk/~david/) David on Twitter: https://twitter.com/d_spiegel (https://twitter.com/d_spiegel) The Art of Statistics: https://dspiegel29.github.io/ArtofStatistics/ (https://dspiegel29.github.io/ArtofStatistics/) Risky Talk podcast: https://riskytalk.libsyn.com/ (https://riskytalk.libsyn.com/) Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication: https://wintoncentre.maths.cam.ac.uk/ (https://wintoncentre.maths.cam.ac.uk/) Frank Ramsey -- A Sheer Excess of Powers: https://www.amazon.fr/Frank-Ramsey-Sheer-Excess-Powers/dp/019875535X (https://www.amazon.fr/Frank-Ramsey-Sheer-Excess-Powers/dp/019875535X) BBC Radio 4, David Spiegelhalter on Frank Ramsey: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000q8pq (https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000q8pq) De Finetti's theorem: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_Finetti%27s_theorem (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_Finetti%27s_theorem) Laplace's... Support this podcast

covid-19 tv president art phd risk numbers risks powers statistics folks loop world champion casper cambridge university university of london donnell laplace bruin lbs bayesian cameron smith embracing uncertainty bbc1 mega ran james thompson james wade mc lars royal statistical society david spiegelhalter baba brinkman rick anderson alejandro morales robin taylor patrick kelley mathematical statistics winton centre evidence communication frank ramsey adam c smith

#49 The Present & Future of Baseball Analytics, with Ehsan Bokhari

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 22, 2021 72:54

It's been a while since I did an episode about sports analytics, right? And you know it's a field I love, so… let's do that! For this episode, I was happy to host Ehsan Bokhari, not only because he's a first-hour listener of the podcast and spread the word about it whenever he can, but mainly because he knows baseball analytics very well! Currently Senior Director of Strategic Decision Making with the Houston Astros, he previously worked there as Senior Director of Player Evaluation and Director of R&D. And before that, he was Senior Director at the Los Angeles Dodgers from the 2015 to the 2018 season. Among other things, we talked about what his job looks like, how Bayesian the field is, which pushbacks he gets, and what the future of baseball analytics look like to him. Ehsan also has an interesting background, coming from both psychology and mathematics. Indeed, he received a PhD in quantitative psychology and an MS in statistics at the University of Illinois in 2014. Maybe most importantly, he loves reading non-fiction and spending time with his almost three-year-old son — who he read Bayesian Probability for Babies to, of course. Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ (https://bababrinkman.com/) ! Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible! Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Brian Huey, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, Adam Bartonicek, William Benton, Alan O'Donnell, Mark Ormsby, Demetri Pananos, James Ahloy, Jon Berezowski, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Elea McDonnell Feit, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, George Ho, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Tim Radtke, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Matthew McAnear, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Luis Iberico, and Alejandro Morales. Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats (https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats) to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;) Links from the show: Ehsan on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ebokhari/ (https://www.linkedin.com/in/ebokhari/) Bayesian Bagging to Generate Uncertainty Intervals -- A Catcher Framing Story: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/38289/bayesian-bagging-generate-uncertainty-intervals-catcher-framing-story/ (https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/38289/bayesian-bagging-generate-uncertainty-intervals-catcher-framing-story/ ) Jim Albert's Bayesball blog: https://bayesball.github.io/ (https://bayesball.github.io/) Simulation of empirical Bayesian methods, using baseball statistics: http://varianceexplained.org/r/simulation-bayes-baseball/ (http://varianceexplained.org/r/simulation-bayes-baseball/) Detection and Characterization of Cluster Substructure -- Fuzzy c-Lines: https://epubs.siam.org/doi/abs/10.1137/0140029 (https://epubs.siam.org/doi/abs/10.1137/0140029) Tensor rank decomposition: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tensor_rank_decomposition (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tensor_rank_decomposition) Statistical Prediction versus Clinical Prediction -- Improving What Works: https://meehl.umn.edu/sites/meehl.umn.edu/files/files/155dfm1993.pdf (https://meehl.umn.edu/sites/meehl.umn.edu/files/files/155dfm1993.pdf) Clinical Versus Actuarial Judgment: https://meehl.umn.edu/sites/meehl.umn.edu/files/files/138cstixdawesfaustmeehl.pdf (https://meehl.umn.edu/sites/meehl.umn.edu/files/files/138cstixdawesfaustmeehl.pdf) Clinical Versus Statistical Prediction:... Support this podcast

#48 Mixed Effects Models & Beautiful Plots, with TJ Mahr

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 8, 2021 61:24

In episode 40, we already got a glimpse of how useful Bayesian stats are in the speech and communication sciences. To talk about the frontiers of this field (and, as it happens, about best practices to make beautiful plots and pictures), I invited TJ Mahr on the show. A speech pathologist turned data scientist, TJ earned his PhD in communication sciences and disorders in Madison, Wisconsin. On paper, he was studying speech development, word recognition and word learning in preschoolers, but over the course of his graduate training, he discovered that he really, really likes programming and working with data – we'll of course talk about that in the show! In short, TJ wrangles data, crunches numbers, plots pictures, and fits models to study how children learn to speak and communicate. On his website, he often writes about Bayesian models, mixed effects models, functional programming in R, or how to plot certain kinds of data. He also got very into the deck-building game “Slay the Spire” this year, and his favorite youtube channel is a guy who restores paintings. Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ (https://bababrinkman.com/) ! Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible! Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Brian Huey, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, Adam Bartonicek, William Benton, Alan O'Donnell, Mark Ormsby, Demetri Pananos, James Ahloy, Jon Berezowski, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Elea McDonnell Feit, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, George Ho, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Tim Radtke, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Matthew McAnear, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, and Luis Iberico. Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats (https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats) to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;) Links from the show: TJ's website: https://www.tjmahr.com/ (https://www.tjmahr.com/) TJ on Twitter: https://twitter.com/tjmahr (https://twitter.com/tjmahr) TJ on GitHub: https://github.com/tjmahr (https://github.com/tjmahr) LBS #40, Bayesian Stats for the Speech & Language Sciences: https://www.learnbayesstats.com/episode/40-bayesian-stats-speech-language-sciences-allison-hilger-timo-roettger (https://www.learnbayesstats.com/episode/40-bayesian-stats-speech-language-sciences-allison-hilger-timo-roettger) Random Effects and Penalized Splines: https://www.tjmahr.com/random-effects-penalized-splines-same-thing/ (https://www.tjmahr.com/random-effects-penalized-splines-same-thing/) Bayes's theorem in three panels: https://www.tjmahr.com/bayes-theorem-in-three-panels/ (https://www.tjmahr.com/bayes-theorem-in-three-panels/) Another mixed effects model visualization: https://www.tjmahr.com/another-mixed-effects-model-visualization/ (https://www.tjmahr.com/another-mixed-effects-model-visualization/) Anatomy of a logistic growth curve: https://www.tjmahr.com/anatomy-of-a-logistic-growth-curve/ (https://www.tjmahr.com/anatomy-of-a-logistic-growth-curve/) R Users Will Now Inevitably Become Bayesians: https://thinkinator.com/2016/01/12/r-users-will-now-inevitably-become-bayesians/ (https://thinkinator.com/2016/01/12/r-users-will-now-inevitably-become-bayesians/) Wisconsin Intelligibility, Speech, and Communication Laboratory: https://kidspeech.wisc.edu/ (https://kidspeech.wisc.edu/) Longitudinal Growth in Intelligibility of Connected Speech From 2 to 8 Years in Children With Cerebral Palsy:... Support this podcast

#47 Bayes in Physics & Astrophysics, with JJ Ruby

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 21, 2021 75:47

The field of physics has brought tremendous advances to modern Bayesian statistics, especially inspiring the current algorithms enabling all of us to enjoy the Bayesian power on our own laptops. I did receive some physicians already on the show, like Michael Betancourt in episode 6, but in my legendary ungratefulness I hadn't dedicated a whole episode to talk about physics yet. Well that's now taken care of, thanks to JJ Ruby. Apart from having really good tastes (he's indeed a fan of this very podcast), JJ is currently a postdoctoral fellow for the Center for Matter at Atomic Pressures at the University of Rochester, and will soon be starting as a Postdoctoral Scholar at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, a U.S. Department of Energy National Laboratory. JJ did his undergraduate work in Astrophysics and Planetary Science at Villanova University, outside of Philadelphia, and completed his master's degree and PhD in Physics at the University of Rochester, in New York. JJ studies high energy density physics and focuses on using Bayesian techniques to extract information from large scale physics experiments with highly integrated measurements. In his freetime, he enjoys playing sports including baseball, basketball, and golf. Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ (https://bababrinkman.com/) ! Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible! Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Brian Huey, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, Adam Bartonicek, William Benton, Alan O'Donnell, Mark Ormsby, Demetri Pananos, James Ahloy, Jon Berezowski, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Elea McDonnell Feit, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, George Ho, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Tim Radtke, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Matthew McAnear, Michael Hankin and Cameron Smith. Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats (https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats) to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;) Links from the show: Center for Matter at Atomic Pressures: https://www.rochester.edu/cmap/ (https://www.rochester.edu/cmap/) Laboratory for Laser Energetics: https://www.lle.rochester.edu/index.php/about-the-laboratory-for-laser-energetics/ (https://www.lle.rochester.edu/index.php/about-the-laboratory-for-laser-energetics/) Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory: https://www.llnl.gov/ (https://www.llnl.gov/) JJ's thesis -- Bayesian Inference of Fundamental Physics at Extreme Conditions: https://www.lle.rochester.edu/media/publications/documents/theses/Ruby.pdf (https://www.lle.rochester.edu/media/publications/documents/theses/Ruby.pdf) Recent Fusion Breakthrough: https://www.llnl.gov/news/national-ignition-facility-experiment-puts-researchers-threshold-fusion-ignition (https://www.llnl.gov/news/national-ignition-facility-experiment-puts-researchers-threshold-fusion-ignition) LBS #6, A principled Bayesian workflow, with Michael Betancourt: https://www.learnbayesstats.com/episode/6-a-principled-bayesian-workflow-with-michael-betancourt (https://www.learnbayesstats.com/episode/6-a-principled-bayesian-workflow-with-michael-betancourt) 20 Best Statistics Podcasts of 2021: https://welpmagazine.com/20-best-statistics-podcasts-of-2021/ (https://welpmagazine.com/20-best-statistics-podcasts-of-2021/) E.T. Jaynes, Probability Theory -- The Logic of Science: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/151848.Probability_Theory... Support this podcast

#46 Silly & Empowering Statistics, with Chelsea Parlett-Pelleriti

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 30, 2021 73:04

You wanna know something funny? A sentence from this episode became a meme. And people even made stickers out of it! Ok, that's not true. But if someone could pull off something like that, it would surely be Chelsea Parlett-Pelleriti. Indeed, Chelsea's research focuses on using statistics and machine learning on behavioral data, but her more general goal is to empower people to be able to do their own statistical analyses, through consulting, education, and, as you may have seen, stats memes on Twitter. A full-time teacher, researcher and statistical consultant, Chelsea earned an MsC and PhD in Computational and Data Science in 2021 from Chapman University. Her courses include R, intro to programming (in Python), and data science. In a nutshell, Chelsea is, by her own admission, an avid lover of anything silly or statistical. Hopefully, this episode turned out to be both at once! I'll let you be the judge of that… Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ (https://bababrinkman.com/) ! Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible! Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Brian Huey, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, Adam Bartonicek, William Benton, Alan O'Donnell, Mark Ormsby, Demetri Pananos, James Ahloy, Jon Berezowski, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Elea McDonnell Feit, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, George Ho, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Tim Radtke, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin and Philippe Labonde. Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats (https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats) to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;) Links from the show: Chelsea's website: https://cmparlettpelleriti.github.io/index.html (https://cmparlettpelleriti.github.io/index.html) Chelsea on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ChelseaParlett (https://twitter.com/ChelseaParlett) Michael Betancourt's sparsity case study: https://betanalpha.github.io/assets/case_studies/modeling_sparsity.html (https://betanalpha.github.io/assets/case_studies/modeling_sparsity.html) LBS #31 -- Bayesian Cognitive Modeling & Decision-Making, with Michael Lee: https://www.learnbayesstats.com/episode/31-bayesian-cognitive-modeling-michael-lee (https://www.learnbayesstats.com/episode/31-bayesian-cognitive-modeling-michael-lee) Projection predictive variable selection R package: https://mc-stan.org/projpred/ SelectiveInference R package: https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/selectiveInference/selectiveInference.pdf (https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/selectiveInference/selectiveInference.pdf) Statistical learning and selective inference: https://www.pnas.org/content/112/25/7629 (https://www.pnas.org/content/112/25/7629) LBS #29 -- Model Assessment, Non-Parametric Models, with Aki Vehtari: https://www.learnbayesstats.com/episode/model-assessment-non-parametric-models-aki-vehtari (https://www.learnbayesstats.com/episode/model-assessment-non-parametric-models-aki-vehtari) LBS #35 -- The Past, Present & Future of BRMS, with Paul Bürkner: https://www.learnbayesstats.com/episode/35-past-present-future-brms-paul-burkner (https://www.learnbayesstats.com/episode/35-past-present-future-brms-paul-burkner) BRMS R Package: https://paul-buerkner.github.io/brms/ (https://paul-buerkner.github.io/brms/) Bayesian Item Response Modeling in R with BRMS and Stan: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1905.09501.pdf (https://arxiv.org/pdf/1905.09501.pdf) BAyesian Model-Building Interface (Bambi)... Support this podcast

#45 Biostats & Clinical Trial Design, with Frank Harrell

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 10, 2021 68:54

As a podcaster, I discovered that there are guests for which the hardest is to know when to stop the conversation. They could talk for hours and that would make for at least 10 fantastic episodes. Frank Harrell is one of those guests. To me, our conversation was both fascinating — thanks to Frank's expertise and the width and depth of topics we touched on — and frustrating — I still had a gazillion questions for him! But rest assured, we talked about intent to treat and randomization, proportional odds, clinical trial design, bio stats and covid19, and even which mistakes you should do to learn Bayes stats — yes, you heard right, which mistakes. Anyway, I can't tell you everything here — you'll just have to listen to the episode! A long time Bayesian, Frank is a Professor of Biostatistics in the School of Medicine at Vanderbilt University. His numerous research interests include predictive models and model validation, Bayesian clinical trial design and Bayesian models, drug development, and clinical research. He holds a PhD in biostatistics from the University of North Carolina, and did his Bachelor in mathematics at the University of Alabama in Birmingham. Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ (https://bababrinkman.com/) ! Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible! Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Brian Huey, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, Adam Bartonicek, William Benton, Alan O'Donnell, Mark Ormsby, Demetri Pananos, James Ahloy, Jon Berezowski, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Elea McDonnell Feit, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, George Ho, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Tim Radtke, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin and Philippe Labonde. Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats (https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats) to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;) Links from the show: Frank's website and courses: https://hbiostat.org/ (https://hbiostat.org/) Frank's blog: https://www.fharrell.com/ (https://www.fharrell.com/) Frank on Twitter: https://twitter.com/f2harrell (https://twitter.com/f2harrell) COVID-19 Randomized Clinical Trial Design: https://hbiostat.org/proj/covid19/ (https://hbiostat.org/proj/covid19/) Frank on GitHub: https://github.com/harrelfe (https://github.com/harrelfe) Regression Modeling Strategies repository: https://github.com/harrelfe/rms (https://github.com/harrelfe/rms) Biostatistics for Biomedical Research repository: https://github.com/harrelfe/bbr (https://github.com/harrelfe/bbr) Bayesian Approaches to Randomized Trials, Spiegelhalter et al.: http://hbiostat.org/papers/Bayes/spi94bay.pdf (http://hbiostat.org/papers/Bayes/spi94bay.pdf) Statistical Rethinking, Richard McElreath: http://xcelab.net/rm/statistical-rethinking/ (http://xcelab.net/rm/statistical-rethinking/) LBS #20, Regression and Other Stories, with Andrew Gelman, Jennifer Hill & Aki Vehtari: https://www.learnbayesstats.com/episode/20-regression-and-other-stories-with-andrew-gelman-jennifer-hill-aki-vehtari (https://www.learnbayesstats.com/episode/20-regression-and-other-stories-with-andrew-gelman-jennifer-hill-aki-vehtari) David Spiegelhalter, The Art of Statistics -- Learning from Data: https://www.amazon.fr/Art-Statistics-Learning-Data/dp/0241398630 (https://www.amazon.fr/Art-Statistics-Learning-Data/dp/0241398630) This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podcorn -... Support this podcast

#44 Building Bayesian Models at scale, with Rémi Louf

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 22, 2021 75:07

Episode sponsored by Paperpile: https://paperpile.com/ (paperpile.com) Get 20% off until December 31st with promo code GOODBAYESIAN21 Bonjour my dear Bayesians! Yes, it was bound to happen one day — and this day has finally come. Here is the first ever 100% French speaking ‘Learn Bayes Stats' episode! Who is to blame, you ask? Well, who better than Rémi Louf? Rémi currently works as a senior data scientist at Ampersand, a big media marketing company in the US. He is the author and maintainer of several open source libraries, including MCX and BlackJAX. He holds a PhD in statistical Physics, a Masters in physics from the Ecole Normale Supérieure and a Masters in Philosophy from Oxford University. I think I know what you're wondering: how the hell do you go from physics to philosophy to Bayesian stats?? Glad you asked, as it was my first question to Rémi! He'll also tell us why he created MXC and BlackJax, what his main challenges are when working on open-source projects, and what the future of PPLs looks like to him. Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ (https://bababrinkman.com/) ! Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible! Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Brian Huey, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, Adam Bartonicek, William Benton, Alan O'Donnell, Mark Ormsby, Demetri Pananos, James Ahloy, Jon Berezowski, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Elea McDonnell Feit, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, George Ho, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Tim Radtke, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin and Philippe Labonde. Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats (https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats) to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;) Links from the show: Rémi on GitHub: https://github.com/rlouf (https://github.com/rlouf) Rémi on Twitter: https://twitter.com/remilouf (https://twitter.com/remilouf) Rémi's website: https://rlouf.github.io/ (https://rlouf.github.io/) BlackJAX -- Fast & modular sampling library: https://github.com/blackjax-devs/blackjax (https://github.com/blackjax-devs/blackjax) MCX -- Probabilistic programs on CPU & GPU, powered by JAX: https://github.com/rlouf/mcx (https://github.com/rlouf/mcx) French Presidents' popularity dashboard: https://www.pollsposition.com/popularity (https://www.pollsposition.com/popularity) How to model presidential approval (in French): https://anchor.fm/pollspolitics/episodes/10-Comment-Modliser-la-Popularit-e121jh2 (https://anchor.fm/pollspolitics/episodes/10-Comment-Modliser-la-Popularit-e121jh2) LBS #23, Bayesian Stats in Business & Marketing, with Elea McDonnel Feit: https://www.learnbayesstats.com/episode/23-bayesian-stats-in-business-and-marketing-analytics-with-elea-mcdonnel-feit (https://www.learnbayesstats.com/episode/23-bayesian-stats-in-business-and-marketing-analytics-with-elea-mcdonnel-feit) LBS #30, Symbolic Computation & Dynamic Linear Models, with Brandon Willard: https://www.learnbayesstats.com/episode/symbolic-computation-dynamic-linear-models-brandon-willard (https://www.learnbayesstats.com/episode/symbolic-computation-dynamic-linear-models-brandon-willard) This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podcorn - https://podcorn.com/privacy Support this podcast

#43 Modeling Covid19, with Michael Osthege & Thomas Vladeck

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 8, 2021 82:19

Episode sponsored by Paperpile: https://paperpile.com/ (paperpile.com) Get 20% off until December 31st with promo code GOODBAYESIAN21 I don't know if you've heard, but there is a virus that took over most of the world in the past year? I haven't dedicated any episode to Covid yet. First because research was moving a lot — and fast. And second because modeling Covid is very, very hard. But we know more about it now, so I thought it was a good time to pause and ponder — how does the virus circulate? How can we model it and, ultimately, defeat it? What are the challenges in doing so? To talk about that, I had the chance to host Michael Osthege and Thomas Vladeck, who both were part of the team who developed the Rt-live model, a Bayesian model to infer the reproductive rate of Covid19 in the general population. As you'll hear, modeling the evolution of this virus is challenging, fascinating, and a perfect fit for Bayesian modeling! It truly is a wonderful example of Bayesian generative modeling. Tom is the Managing Director of Gradient Metrics, a quantitative market research firm, and a Co-Founder of Recast, a media mix model for modern brands. Michael is a PhD student in laboratory automation and bioprocess optimization at the Forschungszentrum Jülich in Germany, and a fellow PyMC core-developer. As he works a lot on the coming brand new version 4, we'll take this opportunity to talk about the current developments and where the project is headed. Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ (https://bababrinkman.com/) ! Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible! Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Brian Huey, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, Adam Bartonicek, William Benton, Alan O'Donnell, Mark Ormsby, Demetri Pananos, James Ahloy, Jon Berezowski, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Elea McDonnell Feit, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, George Ho, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Jonathan Sedar, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Tim Radtke, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode and Patrick Kelley. Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats (https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats) to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;) Links from the show: Tom on Twitter: https://twitter.com/tvladeck (https://twitter.com/tvladeck) Tom's newsletter: https://tvladeck.substack.com/ (https://tvladeck.substack.com/) Michael on Twitter: https://twitter.com/theCake (https://twitter.com/theCake) Michael on GitHub: https://github.com/michaelosthege (https://github.com/michaelosthege) Rt Live dashboard: https://rtlive.de/global.html (https://rtlive.de/global.html) Rt Live model tutorial: https://github.com/rtcovidlive/rtlive-global/blob/master/notebooks/Tutorial_model.ipynb (https://github.com/rtcovidlive/rtlive-global/blob/master/notebooks/Tutorial_model.ipynb) Rt Live model code: https://github.com/rtcovidlive/rtlive-global (https://github.com/rtcovidlive/rtlive-global) Estimating Rt: https://staff.math.su.se/hoehle/blog/2020/04/15/effectiveR0.html (https://staff.math.su.se/hoehle/blog/2020/04/15/effectiveR0.html) Great resource on terminology: https://royalsociety.org/-/media/policy/projects/set-c/set-covid-19-R-estimates.pdf?la=en-GB&hash=FDFFC11968E5D247D8FF641930680BD6 (https://royalsociety.org/-/media/policy/projects/set-c/set-covid-19-R-estimates.pdf?la=en-GB&hash=FDFFC11968E5D247D8FF641930680BD6) Using Hierarchical Multinomial Regression to Predict Elections in Paris districts: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYdIzSYwbSw... Support this podcast

#42 How to Teach and Learn Bayesian Stats, with Mine Dogucu

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 24, 2021 66:00

Episode sponsored by Tidelift: https://paperpile.com/ (paperpile.com) Get 20% off until December 31st with promo code GOODBAYESIAN21 We often talk about applying Bayesian statistics on this podcast. But how do we teach them? What's the best way to introduce them from a young age and make sure the skills students learn in the stats class are transferable? Well, lucky us, Mine Dogucu's research tackles precisely those topics! An Assistant Professor of Teaching in the Department of Statistics at University of California Irvine, Mine is both an educator with an interest in statistics, and an applied statistician with experience in educational research. Her work focuses on modern pedagogical approaches in the statistics curriculum, making data science education more accessible. In particular, she teaches an undergraduate Bayesian course, and is the coauthor of the upcoming book Bayes Rules! An Introduction to Bayesian Modeling with R. In other words, Mine is not only interested in teaching, but also in how best to teach statistics – how to engage students in remote classes, how to get to know them, how to best record and edit remote courses, etc. She writes about these topics on her blog, DataPedagogy.com. She also works on accessibility and inclusion, as well as a study that investigates how popular Bayesian courses are at the undergraduate level in the US — that should be fun to talk about! Mine did her Master's at Bogazici University in Istanbul, Turkey, and then her PhD in Quantitative Research, Evaluation, and Measurement at Ohio State University. Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ (https://bababrinkman.com/) ! Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible! Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Brian Huey, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, Adam Bartonicek, William Benton, Alan O'Donnell, Mark Ormsby, Demetri Pananos, James Ahloy, Jon Berezowski, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Elea McDonnell Feit, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, George Ho, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Jonathan Sedar, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Tim Radtke, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, John Johnson, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode and Patrick Kelley. Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats (https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats) to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;) Links from the show: Mine's website: https://mdogucu.ics.uci.edu/index.html (https://mdogucu.ics.uci.edu/index.html) Mine's blog: https://www.datapedagogy.com/ (https://www.datapedagogy.com/) Mine on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MineDogucu (https://twitter.com/MineDogucu) Mine on GitHub: https://github.com/mdogucu (https://github.com/mdogucu) Bayes Rules! An Introduction to Bayesian Modeling with R: https://www.bayesrulesbook.com/ (https://www.bayesrulesbook.com/) R package for Supplemental Materials for the Bayes Rules! Book: https://github.com/bayes-rules/bayesrules (https://github.com/bayes-rules/bayesrules) Stats 115 - Introduction to Bayesian Data Analysis: https://www.stats115.com/ (https://www.stats115.com/) Undergraduate Bayesian Education Network: https://undergrad-bayes.netlify.app/network.html (https://undergrad-bayes.netlify.app/network.html) Workshop "Teaching Bayesian Statistics at the Undergraduate Level": https://www.causeweb.org/cause/uscots/uscots21/workshop/4 (https://www.causeweb.org/cause/uscots/uscots21/workshop/4) This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podcorn - https://podcorn.com/privacy Support this podcast

#41 Thinking Bayes, with Allen Downey

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 14, 2021 64:03

Let's think Bayes, shall we? And who better to do that than the author of the well known book, Think Bayes — Allen Downey himself! Since the second edition was just released, the timing couldn't be better! Allen is a professor at Olin College and the author of books related to software and data science, including Think Python, Think Bayes, and Think Complexity. His blog, Probably Overthinking It, features articles on Bayesian probability and statistics. He holds a Ph.D. from U.C. Berkeley, and bachelors and masters degrees from MIT. In this special episode, Allen and I talked about his background, how he came to the stats and teaching worlds, and why he wanted to write this book in the first place. He'll tell us who this book is written for, what's new in the second edition, and which mistakes his students most commonly make when starting to learn Bayesian stats. We also talked about some types of models, their usefulness and their weaknesses, but I'll let you discover that. Now for another good news: 5 Patrons of the show will get Think Bayes for free! To qualify, you just need to go the form I linked to in the 'Learn Bayes Stats' Slack channel or https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats (the Patreon page) and enter your email address. That's it. After a week or so, Allen and I will choose 5 winners at random, who will receive the book for free! If you're not a Patron yet, make sure to check out https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats (patreon.com/learnbayesstats) if you don't want to miss out on these goodies! And even if you're not a Patron, I love you dear listeners, so you all get a discount when you go buy the book at https://www.learnbayesstats.com/buy-think-bayes (https://www.learnbayesstats.com/buy-think-bayes) (unfortunately, this only applies for purchases in the US and Canada). Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ (https://bababrinkman.com/) ! Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible! Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Brian Huey, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, Adam Bartonicek, William Benton, Alan O'Donnell, Mark Ormsby, Demetri Pananos, James Ahloy, Jon Berezowski, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Elea McDonnell Feit, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, George Ho, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Jonathan Sedar, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Tim Radtke, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, John Johnson and Hector Munoz. Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats (https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats) to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;) Links from the show: Give LBS a 5-star rating on Podchaser: https://www.podchaser.com/learnbayesstats (https://www.podchaser.com/learnbayesstats) Buy Think Bayes with a discount (only applies for purchases in the US and Canada): https://www.learnbayesstats.com/buy-think-bayes (https://www.learnbayesstats.com/buy-think-bayes) Think Bayes 2 online: http://allendowney.github.io/ThinkBayes2/index.html (http://allendowney.github.io/ThinkBayes2/index.html) Allen's blog: https://www.allendowney.com/blog/ (https://www.allendowney.com/blog/) Allen on Twitter: https://twitter.com/allendowney (https://twitter.com/allendowney) Allen on GitHub: https://github.com/AllenDowney (https://github.com/AllenDowney) Information theory, inference and learning algorithms, David MacKay: http://ce.sharif.edu/courses/97-98/2/ce676-1/resources/root/Notes/Mackay-SectionV.pdf (http://ce.sharif.edu/courses/97-98/2/ce676-1/resources/root/Notes/Mackay-SectionV.pdf) Statistical Rethinking, Richard McElreath:... Support this podcast

How to Count Three Billion Birds

BirdNote

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 8, 2021

A study in 2019 found that North American bird populations had declined by three billion birds in the past 50 years. Tenijah Hamilton, the host of Bring Birds Back podcast, talked to biostatistician Adam C. Smith about how scientists arrived at this shocking number. The hard work of volunteers

science sound song nature study natural birds billion north american sciences birdwatching birding birdnote adam c smith

#40 Bayesian Stats for the Speech & Language Sciences, with Allison Hilger and Timo Roettger

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later May 28, 2021 65:32

We all know about these accidental discoveries — penicillin, the heating power of microwaves, or the famous (and delicious) tarte tatin. I don't know why, but I just love serendipity. And, as you'll hear, this episode is deliciously full of it… Thanks to Allison Hilger and Timo Roettger, we'll discover the world of linguistics, how Bayesian stats are helpful there, and how Paul Bürkner's BRMS package has been instrumental in this field. To my surprise — and perhaps yours — the speech and language sciences are pretty quantitative and computational! As she recently discovered Bayesian stats, Allison will also tell us about the challenges she's faced from advisors and reviewers during her PhD at Northwestern University, and the advice she'd have for people in the same situation. Allison is now an Assistant Professor at the University of Colorado Boulder. The overall goal in her research is to improve our understanding of motor speech control processes, in order to inform effective speech therapy treatments for improved speech naturalness and intelligibility. Allison also worked clinically as a speech-language pathologist in Chicago for a year. As a new Colorado resident, her new hobbies include hiking, skiing, and biking — and then reading or going to dog parks when she's to tired. Holding a PhD in linguistics from the University of Cologne, Germany, Timo is an Associate Professor for linguistics at the University of Oslo, Norway. Timo tries to understand how people communicate their intentions using speech – how are speech signals retrieved; how do people learn and generalize? Timo is also committed to improving methodologies across the language sciences in light of the replication crisis, with a strong emphasis on open science. Most importantly, Timo loves hiking, watching movies or, even better, watching people play video games! Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ (https://bababrinkman.com/) ! Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible! Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Brian Huey, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, Adam Bartonicek, William Benton, Alan O'Donnell, Mark Ormsby, Demetri Pananos, James Ahloy, Jon Berezowski, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Elea McDonnell Feit, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, George Ho, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Jonathan Sedar, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Tim Radtke, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt and Andrew Moskowitz. Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats (https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats) to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;) Links from the show: Allison's website: https://allisonhilger.com/ (https://allisonhilger.com/) Allison on Twitter: https://twitter.com/drahilger (https://twitter.com/drahilger) Allison's motor speech lab: https://www.colorado.edu/lab/motor-speech/ (https://www.colorado.edu/lab/motor-speech/) Timo's website: https://www.simplpoints.com/ (https://www.simplpoints.com/) Timo on Twitter: https://twitter.com/TimoRoettger (https://twitter.com/TimoRoettger) Bayesian regression modeling (for factorial designs) -- A tutorial: https://psyarxiv.com/cdxv3 (https://psyarxiv.com/cdxv3) An Introduction to Bayesian Multilevel Models Using brms -- A Case Study of Gender Effects on Vowel Variability in Standard Indonesian: https://biblio.ugent.be/publication/8624552/file/8624553.pdf (https://biblio.ugent.be/publication/8624552/file/8624553.pdf) Longitudinal Growth in Intelligibility of Connected Speech From 2 to 8 Years in Children With Cerebral Palsy -- A Novel Bayesian Approach:... Support this podcast

How Do We Know that Birds are in Trouble?

Bring Birds Back

Play Episode Listen Later May 19, 2021 24:40

In the inaugural episode of Bring Birds Back, host Tenijah Hamilton gets to know biostatistician Dr. Adam C. Smith, coauthor of the study that found we've lost 3 billion birds in North America in the last fifty years, and helps us wrap our heads around that gigantic number. The good news? There are lots of ways to help.Bring Birds Back is sponsored by the Cornell Lab of Ornithology.Resources:Get involved in the Audubon Christmas Bird CountFind your local Audubon SocietyGet connected with eBirdDownload the Merlin birding appLearn more about the Breeding Bird SurveyCheck out Birds Canada BirdNote is an independent nonprofit media production company. Your dollars make it possible to create the sound-rich shows that connect you to the joys of birds and nature. Support BirdNote's conservation mission, and get more of the content you love, by subscribing to BirdNote+ at https://birdnote.supercast.tech. Learn more at BirdNote.org. Thanks!

nature north america environment birds conservation merlin ornithology cornell lab birdnote applearn adam c smith

#39 Survival Models & Biostatistics for Cancer Research, with Jacki Buros

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Play Episode Listen Later May 14, 2021 59:59

Episode sponsored by Tidelift: https://tidelift.com/ (tidelift.com) It’s been a while since we talked about biostatistics and bioinformatics on this podcast, so I thought it could be interesting to talk to Jacki Buros — and that was a very good idea! She’ll walk us through examples of Bayesian models she uses to, for instance, work on biomarker discovery for cancer immunotherapies. She’ll also introduce you to survival models — their usefulness, their powers and their challenges. Interestingly, all of this will highlight a handful of skills that Jacki would try to instill in her students if she had to teach Bayesian methods. The Head of Data and Analytics at Generable, a state-of-the-art Bayesian platform for oncology clinical trials, Jacki has been working in biostatistics and bioinformatics for over 15 years. She started in cardiology research at the TIMI Study Group at Harvard Medical School before working in Alzheimer’s Disease genetics at Boston University and in biomarker discovery for cancer immunotherapies at the Hammer Lab. Most recently she was the Lead Biostatistician at the Institute for Next Generation Health Care at Mount Sinai. An open-source enthusiast, Jacki is also a contributor to Stan and rstanarm, and the author of the survivalstan package, a library of Stan models for survival analysis. Last but not least, Jacki is an avid sailor and skier! Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ (https://bababrinkman.com/) ! Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible! Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Brian Huey, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, Adam Bartonicek, William Benton, Alan O'Donnell, Mark Ormsby, Demetri Pananos, James Ahloy, Jon Berezowski, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Elea McDonnell Feit, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, George Ho, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Jonathan Sedar, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Tim Radtke, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt and Andrew Moskowitz. Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats (https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats) to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;) Links from the show: Nominate "Learn Bayes Stats" as "Best Podcast of 2021" and "Best Tech Podcast" by entering its https://www.learnbayesstats.com/apple (Apple feed) in https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSe60AOZu0FRvlX3GgLS1Ff8ztPgeJhVHTDhGNaTF3OLgA1Rxw/viewform (this form)! Jacki on Twitter: https://twitter.com/jackiburos (https://twitter.com/jackiburos) Jacki on GitHub: https://github.com/jburos (https://github.com/jburos) Jacki on Orcid: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9588-4889 (https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9588-4889) survivalstan -- Survival Models in Stan: https://github.com/hammerlab/survivalstan (https://github.com/hammerlab/survivalstan) rstanarm -- R model-fitting functions using Stan: http://mc-stan.org/rstanarm/ (http://mc-stan.org/rstanarm/) Generable -- Bayesian platform for oncology clinical trials: https://www.generable.com/ (https://www.generable.com/) StanCon 2020 ArviZ presentation : https://github.com/arviz-devs/arviz_misc/tree/master/stancon_2020 (https://github.com/arviz-devs/arviz_misc/tree/master/stancon_2020) Thinking in Bets -- Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts : https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/35957157-thinking-in-bets (https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/35957157-thinking-in-bets) Scott Kelly and his space travels (in French): https://www.franceculture.fr/emissions/la-methode-scientifique/la-methode-scientifique-mardi-30-janvier-2018... Support this podcast

Industrial Policy Is Still a Loser

Audio Mises Daily

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 17, 2014

Stiglitz wants to revitalize industrial policy through greater government intervention to favor certain technologies over others, writes Stewart Dompe and Adam C. Smith. This audio Mises Daily is narrated by Robert Hale.

losers industrial policy stiglitz interventionism robert hale production theory adam c smith

Podcast appearances and mentions of Adam C Smith

Best podcasts about Adam C Smith

Learning Bayesian Statistics

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How can we even hear gravitational waves?

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