Podcast appearances and mentions of adam kucharski

Today's clip is from episode 130 of the podcast, with epidemiological modeler Adam Kucharski.This conversation explores the critical role of patient modeling during the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting how these models informed public health decisions and the relationship between modeling and policy. The discussion emphasizes the need for improved communication and understanding of data among the public and policymakers.Get the full discussion at https://learnbayesstats.com/episode/129-bayesian-deep-learning-ai-for-science-vincent-fortuinIntro to Bayes Course (first 2 lessons free)Advanced Regression Course (first 2 lessons free)Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work!Visit our Patreon page to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)TranscriptThis is an automatic transcript and may therefore contain errors. Please get in touch if you're willing to correct them.

Here are More or Less we'll all about the facts. Every day we use a toolkit of known proofs to try and answer our listeners' questions. But who do we have to thank for this toolkit and how did they set about proving the unknown? Luckily for us mathematician Adam Kucharski has just written a book about this very topic called ‘Proof: The Uncertain Science of Certainty'. Join us to hear more about some of the proof pioneers included in his book, from estimating the number of German tanks during WW2 to an unsung heroine of statistics. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Annie Gardiner

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!Intro to Bayes Course (first 2 lessons free)Advanced Regression Course (first 2 lessons free)Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work!Visit our Patreon page to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar, Matt Rosinski, Bart Trudeau, Luis Fonseca, Dante Gates, Matt Niccolls, Maksim Kuznecov, Michael Thomas, Luke Gorrie, Cory Kiser, Julio, Edvin Saveljev, Frederick Ayala, Jeffrey Powell, Gal Kampel, Adan Romero, Will Geary, Blake Walters, Jonathan Morgan, Francesco Madrisotti, Ivy Huang, Gary Clarke, Robert Flannery, Rasmus Hindström, Stefan, Corey Abshire, Mike Loncaric, David McCormick, Ronald Legere, Sergio Dolia, Michael Cao, Yiğit Aşık and Suyog Chandramouli.Takeaways:Epidemiology requires a blend of mathematical and statistical understanding.Models are essential for informing public health decisions during epidemics.The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of rapid modeling.Misconceptions about data can lead to misunderstandings in public health.Effective communication is crucial for conveying complex epidemiological concepts.Epidemic thinking can be applied to various fields, including marketing and finance.Public health policies should be informed by robust modeling and data analysis.Automation can help streamline data analysis in epidemic response.Understanding the limitations of models...

These days we're bombarded with information and claims that purport to explain almost every conceivable aspect of our lives, be it down to the bold assertions made by policymakers, the confidence of anonymity afforded by social media or just our natural human inclination to be fooled by a well-spoken know-it-all. But exactly who are the people making these claims, how do they reach their conclusions, and really, can anyone ever actually be certain about anything? In this episode, we catch up with the statistician, epidemiologist and author Adam Kucharski to take about his latest book Proof, The Uncertain Science of Uncertainty. He tells us how Abraham Lincoln's background as lawyer led him to study the nature of proof beyond reasonable doubt and how it helped him to win his presidency, how picking holes in previous logical thinking enabled Albert Einstein to discover some of his greatest theories, and what the COVID pandemic taught us all about the value of scientific rigour and evidence-based conclusions. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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In these difficult times, no one's had a harder time than our medical professionals. They see death every day, and they fight it. What is it like to be a doctor in India? Lancelot Pinto joins Amit Varma in episode 229 of The Seen and the Unseen to talk about the practice of medicine in general, and the battle against Covid-19 in particular. Also discussed: the incentives of doctors, the importance of sleep, how to quit smoking, and the Epidemic of Sighing. Also check out: 1. Past episodes of The Seen and the Unseen on Covid-19, featuring (in reverse chronological order) Ashwin Mahesh, Gautam Menon, Ajay Shah, Anirban Mahapatra, Ruben Mascarenhas, Chinmay Tumbe, Rukmini S, Vaidehi Tandel, Vivek Kaul, Anup Malani and Shruti Rajagopalan.  2. Robin Cook on Amazon. 3. The Case Against Sugar — Gary Taubes. 4. The Big Fat Surprise: why butter, meat, and cheese belong in a healthy diet — Nina Teicholz. 5. UpToDate. 6. Understanding Indian Healthcare -- Episode 225 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Karthik Muralidharan). 7. Money for nothing: The dire straits of medical practice in Delhi, India (2007) — Jishnu Das and Jeffrey Hammer.  8. Dunning-Kruger Effect (Wikipedia). 9. Poker at Lake Wobegon -- Amit Varma. 10. Bad Science -- Ben Goldacre. 11. Homeopathic Faith (2010) -- Amit Varma. 12. Beware of Quacks. Alternative Medicine is Injurious to Health -- Amit Varma. 13. Is it risky to push alternative medicine in Covid pandemic? -- Lancelot Pinto. 14. The Kavita Krishnan Files -- Episode 228 of The Seen and the Unseen. 15. Amit Varma's episode of The Book Club on Mary Wollstonecraft. 16. Being Mortal -- Atul Gawande. 17. How Doctors Die -- Ken Murray. 18. Do not go gentle into that good night -- Dylan Thomas. 19. 24 & Ready to Die -- Economist documentary on euthanasia. 20. Complications -- Atul Gawande. 21. My Own Country -- Abraham Verghese. 22. Deep Medicine -- Eric Topol. 23. Other books by Gawande and Verghese.   24. The Looming Tower -- Lawrence Wright. 25. Do No Harm -- Henry Marsh. 26. The Rules of Contagion -- Adam Kucharski. 27. What Cricket Can Learn From Poker -- Amit Varma's essay on probabilistic thinking. 28. The Cochrane Collaboration. Links on Sleep 29. Lancelot Pinto's talk on sleep. 30. Lancelot Pinto on Sleep Apnea 31. What's keeping you up at night? -- Lancelot Pinto. 32. Are you terrified of falling asleep? -- Lancelot Pinto. 33. Why We Sleep: The New Science of Sleep and Dreams -- Matthew Walker. 34. Tetris Dreams. Links on Tobacco Cessation 35. Lancelot Pinto's Twitter thread on stopping smoking. 36. Global Adult Tobacco Survey. 37. The Odds of Ceasing to Smoke Tobacco -- A visual aid  Links on Tuberculosis 38. Tuberculosis Management by Private Practitioners in Mumbai, India: Has Anything Changed in Two Decades? -- Zarir Udwadia, Lancelot Pinto & Mukund Uplekar. 39. Private patient perceptions about a public programme -- Lancelot Pinto & Zareer Udwadia. 40. Mismanagement of tuberculosis in India: Causes, consequences, and the way forward -- Anurag Bhargava, Lancelot Pinto & Madhukar Pai. 41. A study on telemedicine during Covid-19 co-written by Lancelot Pinto. Links on Covid-19 42. An interview of Lancelot Pinto & Rajani Bhat by Govindraj Ethiraj. 43. India Covid SOS 44. Lancelot Pinto and others interviewed by Barkha Dutt on changed Covid protocols.. 45. Lancelot Pinto and others interviewed by Barkha Dutt on the use of steroids for Covid treatment. 46. Lancelot Pinto & Sumit Ray interviewed by Govindraj Ethirah on the need to update guidelines. 47. A CT scan for COVID merits a word of caution -- Lancelot Pinto. 48. Lancelot Pinto interviewed by Smitha Nair. 49. Comprehensive Guidelines for Management of COVID-19 patients. This episode is sponsored by CTQ Compounds. Check out The Daily Reader, FutureStack and The Social Capital Compound. Use the code UNSEEN for Rs 2500 off. Please subscribe to The India Uncut Newsletter. It's free! And check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing.

It’s half term. It’s nearly the summer. We all need a holiday. But should we go abroad? Travel bubbles, pre-flight testing, post-flight testing: they’ve all been buzz words for more than a year, and yet we seem none the wiser. Why didn’t we close our borders? Why did we allow holidays last summer without any Covid testing before flying and after? And is this all just hindsight or did we not follow the evidence? Today, we talk to Dr Adam Kucharski from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and the WHO’s Dr Margaret Harris on the risks of flying abroad this summer.

How do we make sense of the madness around us? Well, there's the rational, scientific approach: gather data, build models, keep refining and iterating, get closer and closer to the truth. Gautam Menon joins Amit Varma in episode 224 of The Seen and the Unseen to describe the exciting field of biophysics and his work in building mathematical models of infectious diseases -- especially Covid-19. Also discussed: the joys of science, and how Indian music is the best embodiment of the idea of India. Kumar Gandharva FTW! Also check out: 1. Gautam Menon on Twitter, Ashoka, IMSc and Google Scholar. 2. The Novel Coronavirus Variants and India’s Uncertain Future -- Gautam Menon. 3. How Do Scientists Model the Spread of an Infectious Disease? -- Gautam Menon. 4. Control, Consensus, Chaos: The Global Response to the Pandemic -- A talk on YouTube by Sheila Jasanoff. 5. The Big Question: Can India Find a Way Out of Its Covid Nightmare? -- Shahid Jameel interviewed by Bobby Ghosh. 6. Past episodes of The Seen and the Unseen on Covid-19, featuring (in reverse chronological order) Ajay Shah, Anirban Mahapatra, Ruben Mascarenhas, Chinmay Tumbe, Rukmini S, Vaidehi Tandel, Vivek Kaul, Anup Malani and Shruti Rajagopalan. 7. My Family and Other Animals -- Gerald Durrell. 8. A Cricket Tragic Celebrates the Game -- Episode 201 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ramachandra Guha). 9. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction -- Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner. 10. We Are All Gamblers -- Amit Varma. 11. Range Rover -- Amit Varma's column on poker for the Economic Times. 12. Demystifying GDP -- Episode 130 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Rajeswari Sengupta). 13. The New World Upon Us -- Amit Varma (on Alpha Zero). 14. Why Does the Pandemic Seem to Be Hitting Some Countries Harder Than Others? -- Siddhartha Mukherjee. 15. Episode Zero: The preview episode of The Seen and the Unseen. 16. Indian Scientists’ Response to CoViD-19. 17. A state-level epidemiological model for India: INDSCI-SIM. 18. Anup Malani on India’s COVID Second Wave -- Episode 13 of Season 5 of Grand Tamasha, hosted by Milan Vaishnav. Books recommended by Gautam Menon 1. Spillover: Animal Infections and the Next Human Pandemic -- David Quammen. 2. The Rules of Contagion: Why Things Spread - and Why They Stop -- Adam Kucharski. 3, Early Indians: The Story of Our Ancestors and Where We Came From -- Tony Joseph, who also appeared on Seen/Unseen. 4. Lilavati's Daughters -- Edited by Rohini Godbole and Ram Ramaswamy, 5. The Man Who Knew Infinity -- Robert Kanigel. 6. Never Let Me Go -- Kazuo Ishiguro. 7. Half of a Yellow Sun -- Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie. This episode is sponsored by The Great Courses Plus. Check out their course, Mysteries of the Microscopic World, taught by Bruce E Fleury. For free unlimited access for a month, click here. Please subscribe to The India Uncut Newsletter. It’s free! And check out Amit’s online course, The Art of Clear Writing.

These are difficult times. How do we make sense of what is happening around us? Well, there is science. Anirban Mahapatra joins Amit Varma in episode 221 of The Seen and the Unseen to share his insights on the science of Covid-19 -- and on the state of science and scientific writing in general. Also check out: 1. Covid-19: Separating Fact from Fiction -- Anirban Mahapatra. 2. Anirban Mahapatra on Twitter and Google Scholar. 3. The Age of Pandemics -- Chinmay Tumbe. 4. India's Tryst With Pandemics -- Episode 205 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Chinmay Tumbe). 5. Other episodes of The Seen and the Unseen on the pandemic: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. 6. Publish and Perish -- Agnes Callard. 7. The Tragedy of Our Farm Bills -- Episode 211 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ajay Shah). 8. A Scientist in the Kitchen -- Episode 204 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Krish Ashok). 9. Gell-Mann Amnesia. 10. The Prem Panicker Files -- Episode 217 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Prem Panicker). 11. How Zeynep Tufekci Keeps Getting the Big Things Right -- Ben Smith. 12. Zeynep Tufekci's newsletter, Twitter and column archive. 13. Mendelay. 14. Marginal Revolution. 15. Human and Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare -- Episode 4 of Brave New World (Vasant Dhar in conversation with Eric Topol.) 16. Deep Medicine: How Artificial Intelligence Can Make Healthcare Human Again -- Eric Topol. 17. Calling Bullshit: The Art of Scepticism in a Data-Driven World -- Jevin West and Carl Bergstrom. 18. The Rules of Contagion: Why Things Spread - and Why They Stop -- Adam Kucharski. 19. Eric Topol, Dr Angela Rasmussen, Natalie Dean, Carl Bergstrom, Adam Kucharski, Ed Yong, Carl Zimmer, Helen Branswell, News From Science and Nature News & Comment on Twitter. 20. The Nature Newsletter. 21. The Scientist. 22. The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark -- Carl Sagan. 23. The World According to Physics -- Jim Al-Khalili. 24. Brian Greene, Michio Kaku and Michael Benton on Amazon. 25. Feeding the Hungry in the Pandemic -- Episode 210 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ruben Mascarenhas). 26. We Are Fighting Two Disasters: Covid-19 and the Indian State -- Amit Varma. 27. A Meditation on Form -- Amit Varma. 28. The Selfish Gene -- Richard Dawkins. 29. Richard Dawkins and Daniel Dennett on Amazon. 30. Early Indians -- Episode 112 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Tony Joseph).  31 Early Indians: The Story of Our Ancestors and Where We Came From -- Tony Joseph. 32. Beware of Quacks. Alternative Medicine is Injurious to Health -- Amit Varma. 33. Self-Esteem (and a Puddle) -- Amit Varma. 34. Unlikely is Inevitable -- Amit Varma.  Please subscribe to The India Uncut Newsletter. It’s free! And check out Amit’s online course, The Art of Clear Writing.

durée : 02:00:08 - Les Matins - par : Guillaume Erner - . - réalisation : Vivien Demeyère

Vaccines and Variants is a great title for a fun new geeky game but a very bad combination for public health. New variants of the virus which causes Covid 19 are turning up in countries all over the world. Can the vaccines we have keep up with them, or do years of booster jabs await us? Tim Harford answers these questions with this week's panel of guests: Professor Peter Hotez of the Baylor College of Medicine, Professor Emma Thomson of the University of Glasgow and Dr Adam Kucharski of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Producer: Sandra Kanthal Listener questions can be sent to: vaccine@bbc.co.uk

Adam Kucharski is among a number of epidemiologists who has suddenly been thrust into the limelight. We discuss his career and the current state of the coronavirus pandemic. This episode was supported by G-Research, a world-leading quantitative finance research firm, hiring the brightest minds to tackle the biggest questions in finance - learn more at gresearch.co.uk/numberphile/ Adam Kucharski's website Adam's books on Amazon, including The Rules of Contagion Some of our previous podcasts that touch on epidemiology include these ones with Kit Yates, Hannah Fry and Jennifer Rogers You can support Numberphile on Patreon like these people With thanks to MSRI

Smittsamma utbrott kan anta många former; från innovationer till gängkriminalitet. Ibland vill vi att saker ska ta fart, ibland är det livsavgörande att de stannar upp. För varje virus som hoppar från djur till människa och blir en pandemi är det miljoner som inte infekterar någon alls. Under det senaste året har vi blivit bekanta med begrepp som de flesta av oss inte tänkt särskilt mycket på förut: reproduktionstal, superspridare och flockimmunitet är några av dem. De matematiska modeller som beskriver virusets spridning påverkar myndigheternas åtgärder och har stor effekt på våra liv. Matematikern och epidemiologen Adam Kucharski har lyckats med konststycket att skriva en bladvändare utifrån dessa modeller. Forskning kring sjukdomsutbrott löper som en röd tråd i boken, men idag används samma modeller också för att förstå och förutspå smittsamma fenomen inom helt andra fält. Författaren beskriver dessa dolda lagar, han kopplar samman saker som ter sig vitt skilda och förklarar dem på nya sätt: hur finanskriser beter sig som sexuellt överförbara sjukdomar och hur metoder som användes för att utrota smittkoppor nu tas i bruk för att minska våld med skjutvapen. Han visar på mönster och logik i det som ter sig nyckfullt, enormt och ogreppbart. Smitta berättar mycket om mänskligt beteende, den moderna världen och hur vi försöker förutspå framtiden.

Die Finanzkrise 2008, die Verbreitung von Fake News und Gewaltausbrüche haben Ähnlichkeit mit der aktuellen Pandemie, schreibt der Mathematiker und Epidemiologe Adam Kucharski in „Das Gesetz der Ansteckung“. Er sagt auch, was wir daraus lernen können. Von Vera Linß www.deutschlandfunkkultur.de, Lesart Hören bis: 19.01.2038 04:14 Direkter Link zur Audiodatei

Die Finanzkrise 2008, die Verbreitung von Fake News und Gewaltausbrüche haben Ähnlichkeit mit der aktuellen Pandemie, schreibt der Mathematiker und Epidemiologe Adam Kucharski in „Das Gesetz der Ansteckung“. Er sagt auch, was wir daraus lernen können. Von Vera Linß www.deutschlandfunkkultur.de, Lesart Hören bis: 19.01.2038 04:14 Direkter Link zur Audiodatei

Une étude d'un épidémiologiste anglais, membre du London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, démontre que le variant britannique, plus contagieux, est plus dangereux qu'un virus très létal. Pour arriver à cette conclusion, Adam Kucharski a réalisé trois projections sur trente jours chacune à chaque fois. Pendant ce laps de temps, le virus peut se transmettre cinq fois à partir d'un seul cas d'une personne contaminée. Quels sont les trois scénarios ? Ce mardi 12 janvier 2021, Baptiste Morin, dans sa chronique "Les indispensables", nous parle de cette nouvelle étude sur le variant britannique. Cette chronique a été diffusée dans 24h Pujadas du 12/01/2021 présentée par David Pujadas sur LCI. Du lundi au vendredi, à partir de 18h, David Pujadas apporte toute son expertise pour analyser l'actualité du jour avec pédagogie.

Autor: Hubert, Martin Sendung: Forschung aktuell Hören bis: 19.01.2038 04:14

Autor: Hubert, Martin Sendung: Forschung aktuell Hören bis: 19.01.2038 04:14

Autor: Hubert, Martin Sendung: Forschung aktuell Hören bis: 19.01.2038 04:14

Unpack the science behind the spread of disease. During the time of a global pandemic, contagious diseases are more alarming than ever. Everyone wants to know how a virus spreads and why. Most importantly, we want to know how we can protect ourselves. Understanding the scientific principles behind contagious disease is the first step to unlocking these medical mysteries and accessing the knowledge we crave. The Rules of Contagion (2020) unpacks the science of all things viral and illustrates the similarities between a disease like COVID-19 and a viral video. *** Do you want more free audiobook summaries like this? Download our app for free at QuickRead.com/App and get access to hundreds of free book and audiobook summaries.

Adam Kucharski points to the development of bots for poker as a way to understand human behaviors. This talk was filmed at TEDxLiverpool. All TEDx events are organized independently by volunteers in the spirit of TED's mission of ideas worth spreading. To learn more about TEDxSHORTS, the TEDx program, or give feedback on this episode, please visit http://go.ted.com/tedxshorts. Follow TEDx on Twitter: https://twitter.com/TEDx Follow TEDx on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tedx_official Like TEDx on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TEDxEvents

What does science have to do with gambling? Apparently, the two are intertwined. Enter the mathematician, who says if you want to win, you can, by using secret scientific measures to outwit your opponent. So whether you want to beat a casino, win a round of paper-scissors-rock, or just not lose your life savings, science could be the key to your success.

What does science have to do with gambling? Apparently, the two are intertwined. Enter the mathematician, who says if you want to win, you can, by using secret scientific measures to outwit your opponent. So whether you want to beat a casino, win a round of paper-scissors-rock, or just not lose your life savings, science could be the key to your success.

What does science have to do with gambling? Apparently, the two are intertwined. Enter the mathematician, who says if you want to win, you can, by using secret scientific measures to outwit your opponent. So whether you want to beat a casino, win a round of paper-scissors-rock, or just not lose your life savings, science could be the key to your success.

Epidemiologist Adam Kucharski joins TWiV to discuss SARS-CoV-2, including R0, incubation period, herd immunity, asymptomatic infection, superspreaders, children as drivers of pandemics, and how this one will end. Hosts: Vincent Racaniello, Rich Condit, Kathy Spindler, and Brianne Barker Guest: Adam Kucharski Subscribe (free): iTunes, Google Podcasts, RSS, email Become a patron of TWiV! Links for this episode The Rules of Contagion (Amazon affiliate link) Overdispersion in SARS-CoV-2 transmission (Wellcome Open Res) Sorrento Therapeutics test In vitro diagnostics EUAs (FDA) Letters read on TWiV 652 Timestamps by Jolene. Thanks! Intro music is by Ronald Jenkees Send your virology questions and comments to twiv@microbe.tv

Epidemiologist Adam Kucharski joins TWiV to discuss SARS-CoV-2, including R0, incubation period, herd immunity, asymptomatic infection, superspreaders, children as drivers of pandemics, and how this one will end. Hosts: Vincent Racaniello, Rich Condit, Kathy Spindler, and Brianne Barker Guest: Adam Kucharski Subscribe (free): iTunes, Google Podcasts, RSS, email Become a patron of TWiV! Links for this episode The Rules of Contagion (Amazon affiliate link) Overdispersion in SARS-CoV-2 transmission (Wellcome Open Res) Sorrento Therapeutics test In vitro diagnostics EUAs (FDA) Letters read on TWiV 652 Timestamps by Jolene. Thanks! Intro music is by Ronald Jenkees Send your virology questions and comments to twiv@microbe.tv

We talk to mathematician and epidemiologist Adam Kucharski about his recent book The Rules of Contagion: Why Things Spread—And Why They Stop. Support the show: https://www.patreon.com/inquiringminds See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A book steeped in math and epidemiology that addresses the basis for how a variety of contagion models — memes, malaria, financial crises — can document why things spread, and one day stop. While this isn’t a book addressing our current COVID-19 crisis, it does provide background information on concepts that will give you a stronger background in understanding what it means for something to go viral. British Narrator Joe Jameson delivers a narration that is immensely appealing to the ear and blends well with the author’s gift for narrative writing. It is a highly textured audiobook full of details, yet digestible. Published by Hachette Audio. Find more audiobook recommendations at audiofilemagazine.com Support for AudioFile's Behind the Mic comes from PENGUIN RANDOM HOUSE AUDIO, dedicated to producing top-quality fiction and nonfiction audiobooks written and read by the best in the business. Visit penguinrandomhouseaudio.com/audiofile now to start listening. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Have you ever wanted to get someone to disclose more about themselves? This episode begins with a very simple strategy that will loosen someone up and get them to tell you a lot more about the details of their life. http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs12110-015-9225-8#page-1 How do things spread? By that I mean not just viruses like the flu or corona virus but also rumors and viral videos or fake news stories – why do some of these things gather steam and spread like wildfire? And then, why do they stop? Every year people catch the flu and then in the summer, it just stops. What stops it? Listen to my guest Adam Kucharski, he is an epidemiologist and author of the book The Rules of Contagion: Why Things Spread and Why They Stop (https://amzn.to/3f7oJh5).  What’s the connection between arguments and hunger? Well if you want to get along better with the people or person you live with – you need to hear me explain this interesting science. http://www.independent.ie/style/sex-relationships/are-you-rowing-with-your-partner-you-might-just-behangry-30191887.html You know that feeling of being a slave to your phone or to email? That feeling of always being available is taking a toll on you whether you know it or not. Journalist Ian Douglas has studied this extensively and has written a book called Is Technology Making Us Sick? (https://amzn.to/3f65wfX)  Ian joins me to explain how you are being manipulated into always staying available and what it is doing to your health. He also has some excellent strategies to deal with the problem without having to turn all your electronics off.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode we’re tackling the coronavirus information overload by comparing three books on pandemics past and present: Outbreaks and Epidemics by Meera Senthilingam, Adam Kucharski’s The Rules of Contagion, and The Pandemic Century by Mark Honigsbaum (the only one written well before the current pandemic hit). Find out what we thought about each of these titles, what readers might get out of them, and hear from Outbreaks and Epidemics author Meera Senthilingham about what it was like to write about pandemics while being in the middle of one.

Why do some diseases spread while others fail to take hold? Adam Kucharski studies the mathematics of contagion: predicting patterns of transmission for outbreaks including Ebola, Zika and now Covid-19. By understanding how human behaviour can shape a disease's spread he wants to make our efforts to combat them more effective. In his new book The Rules of Contagion he also considers parallels between the science of contagion and the virality of trends and ideas in modern culture. Understand these principles, he argues, and you can use them for good: to tackle gun violence, or to fight the spread of fake news.

Over the last few months, we’ve all had to come to terms with R, the ‘effective reproduction number’, as a measure of how well we are dealing with the coronavirus outbreak. But, as Nicola Davis finds out from Dr Adam Kucharski, R is a complicated statistical concept that relies on many factors and, under some conditions, can be misleading. Help support our independent journalism at theguardian.com/sciencepod

Claudia Hammond and a panel of international experts look at the latest research into Covid-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus which is sweeping through the world. As the disease spreads how is South America handling the pandemic? How are the indigenous people of the Amazon protecting themselves? We also look at the aerodynamics of infection - if the air in an ITU room is changed 12 times and the virus still lingers what hope do offices have? On the panel are Professor Lydia Bourouiba, Associate Professor at the Fluid Dynamics of Disease Transmission Laboratory at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dr Adam Kucharski from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Professor Holgar Schunemann, co-director of the World Health Organization (WHO) Collaborating Centre for Infectious Diseases, Dr David Collier, Clinical Director at Queen Mary University London and Barbara Fraser, health journalist in the Peruvian capital Lima. The Evidence is produced in association with Wellcome Collection. Producers: Geraldine Fitzgerald and Caroline Steel Editor: Deborah Cohen

In this Fiduciary Investors series podcast Amanda White talks to Princeton University's Professor Stephen Kotkin about the fragility of the global political economy and the potential end of globalisation. The podcast discusses the limitations of risk management systems used by many investors and the need for a new risk framework that looks beyond a linear construct to enable investors to better grasp the complexity of investing. It discusses the fragility of the environment and the economy due to: The underlying paradox of globalisation The lack of recognition of adaptive complex systems And a stagnant political organising framework.   About Stephen KotkinStephen Kotkin is the John P Birkelund Professor in History and International Affairs at Princeton University.He is the co-director of the program in history and the practice of diplomacy and the director of the Princeton Institute for International and Regional Studies. He established the Princeton department's Global History initiative and workshop, and teaches the graduate seminar on global history since the 1950s.He also holds a joint appointment in the Woodrow Wilson School for Public and International Affairs at Princeton and is a research scholar at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University.He has authored many books including his latest Stalin: Waiting for Hitler. About Amanda WhiteAmanda White is responsible for the content across all Conexus Financial's institutional media and events. In addition to being the editor of Top1000funds.com, she is responsible for directing the global bi-annual Fiduciary Investors Symposium which challenges global investors on investment best practice and aims to place the responsibilities of investors in wider societal, and political contexts.  She holds a Bachelor of Economics and a Masters of Art in Journalism and has been an investment journalist for more than 25 years. She is currently a fellow in the Finance Leaders Fellowship at the Aspen Institute. The two-year program seeks to develop the next generation of responsible, community-spirited leaders in the global finance industry. Suggested reading: Spillover: Animal Infections and the Next Human Pandemic (2012). David Quammen The Butterfly Defect: How Globalization Creates Systemic Risks, and What to Do About It (2014). Ian Goldin and Mike Mariathasan, The Rules of Contagion (2020): a mix of biology, mathematics, history, behavioural science, and anecdote, exploring how disease, ideas and behaviours move about and then cascade. Adam Kucharski. What is the Fiduciary Investors series?The COVID-19 global health and economic crisis has highlighted the need for leadership and capital to be urgently targeted towards the vulnerabilities in the global economy.Through conversations with academics and asset owners, the Fiduciary Investors Podcast Series is a forward looking examination of the changing dynamics in the global economy, what a sustainable recovery looks like and how investors are positioning their portfolios.The much-loved events, the Fiduciary Investors Symposiums, act as an advocate for fiduciary capitalism and the power of asset owners to change the nature of the investment industry, including addressing principal/agent and fee problems, stabilising financial markets, and directing capital for the betterment of society and the environment. Like the event series, the podcast series, tackles the challenges long-term investors face in an environment of disruption,  and asks investors to think differently about how they make decisions and allocate capital. 

How can we build a vision for the future in a time of such uncertainty? Join us for a discussion on what we can learn from different disciplines seeking to model a "New Normal" for society post COVID-19. As part of this conversation, we will learn about theories of contagion and how they apply not just to modelling diseases, but also to viral online information, financial systems, human behaviour and social change.We will hear from:Epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) and author of The Rules of Contagion: Why Things Spread and Why They Stop, Dr Adam Kucharski. The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine is a world-leading centre for research and postgraduate education in public and global health.Founder and Managing Partner of Merian Ventures, Alexsis de Raadt St. James. Merian Ventures funds female founders and co-founders in cyber, AI, ML and consumer-facing technologies.Director of the Oxford Internet Institute and author of Pax Technica: How the Internet of Things May Set Us Free or Lock Us Up, Professor Philip Howard. The Oxford Internet Institute is a multidisciplinary research and teaching department of the University of Oxford, dedicated to the social science of the Internet.

- Flaute bei Challenger-Banken https://sifted.eu/articles/digital-banks-growth-corona/ - Big-Tech noch stärker durch Krise: https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/05/02/big-tech-is-thriving-in-the-midst-of-the-recession https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/01/opinion/tech-companies-coronavirus.html Amazon: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/amazons-ceo-tells-investors-if-youre-shareowner-you-may-want-to-take-a-seat-as-he-explains-why-the-company-will-spend-entirety-of-4-billion-profit-2020-04-30 Google: https://www.businessinsider.com/alphabet-google-q1-earnings-revenue-profit-2020-4 Facebook: https://techcrunch.com/2020/04/29/the-quarantine-is-driving-record-usage-growth-at-facebook/ Mark Zuckerberg: Krise wird länger dauern, als viele das heute annehmen: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/01/technology/coronavirus-big-tech-earnings.html Microsoft: https://www.businessinsider.com/microsoft-reports-q3-fy20-earnings-2020-4 Apple: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/apple-aapl-earnings-q2-2020.html Netflix: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/21/netflix-nflx-earnings-q1-2020.html - Jeff Bezos verstärkt im Management aktiv https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/technology/bezos-amazon-coronavirus.html - Börse US: S&P 500 + 13% in April - stärkster Anstieg seit 1987 https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/01/investing/stock-market-recession-coronavirus/index.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/30/opinion/economy-stock-market-coronavirus.html - US: wieder fast 4 Mio. Arbeitslose mehr - nun 30 Mio (fast 20%) https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/30/economy/unemployment-benefits-coronavirus/index.html https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-30/u-s-personal-spending-plummeted-by-a-record-7-5-in-march - EZB-Chef: Wirtschaftsabschwung schwerster seit 2. Weltkrieg https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/30/business/europe-economy-coronavirus-recession.html - Microsoft Teams am boomen https://www.theverge.com/2020/4/29/21241972/microsoft-teams-75-million-daily-active-users-stats - Reisestartups Deutschland: GetYourGuide, Flixbus, Omio, Tourlane, Trivago schreiben offenen Brief an Google https://www.gruenderszene.de/allgemein/reise-startups-offener-brief-google?interstitial - Konsequenzen von Öffnung ohne Vertrauen https://www.bisnow.com/atlanta/news/retail/for-georgia-restaurants-and-retailers-its-not-landlords-that-cause-the-pressure-104166 https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-only-9-of-britons-want-life-to-return-to-normal-once-lockdown-is-over-11974459 - Corona-Krise auf 2 Jahre prognostiziert https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-01/covid-19-pandemic-likely-to-last-two-years-report-says - Tracking-Apps als Ausweg? https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/g5xz37/united-nations-coronavirus-app-1point5-doesnt-work https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/04/29/most-americans-are-not-willing-or-able-use-an-app-tracking-coronavirus-infections-thats-problem-big-techs-plan-slow-pandemic/ https://t3n.de/news/corona-app-magenta-telekom-sap-1274327/ - Augmented Reality am Beispiel Magic Leap https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-22/magic-leap-is-said-to-cut-half-of-jobs-in-major-restructuring - Duolingo: Unicorn mit $10 Millionen Finanzierung https://techcrunch.com/2020/04/27/understanding-duolingos-quiet-10m-raise/ - Universal verzeichnet Rekordumsätze mit Film-Streaming https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/amc-theatres-refuses-play-universal-films-wake-trolls-world-tour-1292327 - Tesla: mit Gewinn und Neid von VW https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-results-idUSKBN22B35G https://electrek.co/2020/04/27/vw-admits-tesla-lead-software-leak-internal/ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-01/suvs-get-parked-in-the-ocean-and-reveal-scope-of-u-s-car-glut - Buchempfehlung: Adam Kucharski “The rules of contagion” https://www.amazon.de/Adam-Kucharski/dp/1788164725/ Many thanks for the music by Lee Rosevere https://freemusicarchive.org/music/Lee_Rosevere/Music_For_Podcasts_5/Lee_Rosevere_-_Music_For_Podcasts_5_-_05_Start_the_Day

The world is currently facing a global pandemic, unlike any seen in our lifetime. Yet organisations the world over have encountered something similar for many years. Almost irrespective of market, our largest publicly listed companies have a mortality rate on a 10-year horizon around 75%, meaning that by 2026, their average life expectancy will be just 12 years.   Sam Sterling, AKQA Managing Director Greater China & Japan, spoke to mathematician Dr Adam Kucharski, Associate Professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, where he works on outbreak analysis. Kucharski is a TED Senior Fellow and author of the book The Rules of Contagion: Why Things Spread and Why They Stop (https://www.amazon.co.uk/Rules-Contagion-Outbreaks-Infectious-Diseases-ebook/dp/B07JLSHT7M/ref=sr_1_1?crid=232EDDZ3HDDX5&dchild=1&keywords=the+rules+of+contagion+adam+kucharski&qid=1586882199&s=books&sprefix=the+rules+of%2Cstripbooks%2C134&sr=1-1) . He's also a doctor but not the medical kind, which makes him ideally placed to discuss the characteristics of a virus in structural rather than biological terms. From this AKQA Insight, we learn that the underlying principles of virality can be of benefit to businesses and that breaking into new markets and adapting to the environment maximises impact in the long term.

Infectious disease expert Adam Kucharski didn't know that the world was going to be overtaken by a virus when he wrote his new book, The Rules of Contagion: Why Things Spread – and Why They Stop. But today, the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine professor has a schedule filled with meetings about the progression of Covid-19—and how best to curb it. Arts and books editor Sameer Rahim talks to Adam about what it's been like researching the disease, which countries have handled the outbreak best, and what to expect next. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Dr Hannah Fry made a film two years ago which predicted the coronavirus pandemic with chilling accuracy. Dr Hannah Fry's website - links to all her stuff The BBC Contagion special on iPlayer If it doesn't work on iPlayer, this is a version I found on YouTube!? Numberphile video about the SIR curve with Ben Sparks Numberphile discusses coronavirus mathematics with Kit Yates False Positives on Numberphile with Lisa Goldberg PAPER: Contacts in context: large-scale setting-specific social mixing matrices from the BBC Pandemic project PAPER: Contagion! The BBC Four Pandemic – The model behind the documentary BBC Horizon Coronavirus Special - the more recent film Hannah made with the Beeb RI Christmas Lectures 2019: Secrets and lies Mathematician/epidemiologist Adam Kucharski on Twitter With thanks to MSRI Support us on Patreon

The Homeland and Peaky Blinders stars tell us how they’re helping supply meals to NHS staff. And we're joined by epidemiologist and author of 'The Rules of Contagion', Adam Kucharski. Producers: Frankie Tobi, Natalie Ktena and Ione Wells Editor: Dino Sofos

Top epidemiologist Adam Kucharski talks to Richard Kilgarriff in this special Big Thinking episode; How contagion and ideas spread (and stop) and how numbers, timescale and social factors influence outbreaks across the world. Get a copy of Adam's book, The Rules of Contagion HERE.

"This week we have a doubleheader. First, we speak to Emily! One of the very first Nova Scotians who was diagnosed with and has now recovered from COVID-19. Spoiler alert, it is no walk in the gosh darn park. Which is exactly why y'all need to #StayTheBlazesHome. Then we chat with Adam Kucharski - an epidemiologist, mathematician, and associate professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, where he works on analysis of infectious disease outbreaks. Spoiler alert, he's smart. We talk about the sobering data that is coming out surrounding the virus and what that data tells us about our future. "

This week we have a doubleheader. First, we speak to Emily! One of the very first Nova Scotians who was diagnosed with and has now recovered from COVID-19. Spoiler alert, it is no walk in the gosh darn park. Which is exactly why y'all need to #StayTheBlazesHome. Then we chat with Adam Kucharski - an epidemiologist, mathematician, and associate professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, where he works on analysis of infectious disease outbreaks. Spoiler alert, he's smart. We talk about the sobering data that is coming out surrounding the virus and what that data tells us about our future. Support the podcast on Patreon - www.patreon.com/sickboy  Thanks to Thisten for transcribing this episode - https://thisten.co/event/cbe4d Follow us on Instagram & Twitter - @sickboypodcast

"This week we have a doubleheader. First, we speak to Emily! One of the very first Nova Scotians who was diagnosed with and has now recovered from COVID-19. Spoiler alert, it is no walk in the gosh darn park. Which is exactly why y'all need to #StayTheBlazesHome. Then we chat with Adam Kucharski - an epidemiologist, mathematician, and associate professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, where he works on analysis of infectious disease outbreaks. Spoiler alert, he's smart. We talk about the sobering data that is coming out surrounding the virus and what that data tells us about our future. "

This week, we examine criticisms of Imperial College’s epidemiologists. We ask how A-Level and GCSE grades will be allocated, given that the exams have vanished in a puff of social distancing. Adam Kucharski, author of The Rules of Contagion, tells us about the history of epidemiology. We look at the supermarkets: how are their supply chains holding up and how much stockpiling is really going on. And is coronavirus having a different impact on men than on women?

At the frontline of the COVID-19 fight right now, Adam Kucharski is author of The Rules of Contagion: Why Things Spread - and Why They Stop. He sees patterns of contagion everywhere – in viruses, memes, markets.

At the frontline of the COVID-19 fight right now, Adam Kucharski is author of The Rules of Contagion: Why Things Spread - and Why They Stop. He sees patterns of contagion everywhere – in viruses, memes, markets.

Hospitalization rates, exponential growth and flattening the curve – all these concepts are now part of our daily vocabulary. But understanding them properly takes some expertise. Bio-statistician Adam Kucharski joins Bill Nye to make sense of the data on COVID-19, and what to watch out for.

The UK's response to COVID-19 has dramatically changed in recent days. Dr. Adam Kucharski, outbreak modeller from LSHTM is working to provide robust scientific evidence for the government and other decision-makers. Adam talks us through the evidence behind the government's response at this time, and shares his thoughts about the outbreak and it's social impacts long-term.

Im Zuge der Bedrohung durch COVID 19 beantwortet der Experte für Infektionskrankheiten Adam Kucharski fünf grundlegende Fragen zum neuen Coronavirus. Er gibt notwendige Informationen über seine Übertragung, wie Staaten regiert haben und wie wir unser soziales Verhalten ändern müssen, um der Pandemie ein Ende zu bereiten. (Dieses Video ist ein Auszug aus einem 70-minütigen Interview zwischen Kucharski und dem Leiter von TED, Chris Anderson. Hören Sie sich das gesamte Interview unter go.ted.com/adamkucharski an).

Mientras continúa la amenaza del COVID-19, el experto en enfermedades infecciosas Adam Kucharski responde a cinco preguntas claves sobre el novedoso coronavirus, proporcionando una perspectiva necesaria con respecto a su transmisión, cómo han respondido los países y qué deberíamos cambiar de nuestro comportamiento social para terminar con la pandemia. (Este video es un extracto de la entrevista de 70 minutos entre Kucharski y el director de TED Chris Anderson. Escucha la entrevista completa en go.ted.com/adamkucharski.)

As the threat of COVID-19 continues, infectious disease expert and TED Fellow Adam Kucharski answers five key questions about the novel coronavirus, providing necessary perspective on its transmission, how governments have responded and what might need to change about our social behavior to end the pandemic. (This video is excerpted from a 70-minute interview between Kucharski and head of TED Chris Anderson. Listen to the full interview at http://go.ted.com/adamkucharski. Recorded March 11, 2020)

Alors que la menace de COVID-19 se poursuit, l'expert en maladies infectieuses Adam Kucharski répond à cinq questions clés sur le nouveau coronavirus, en apportant le point de vue nécessaire sur sa transmission, sur la manière dont les gouvernements ont réagi et sur ce qui pourrait devoir changer dans notre comportement social pour mettre fin à la pandémie. (Cette vidéo est extraite d'une interview de 70 minutes entre Kucharski et le directeur de TED Chris Anderson. Écoutez l'intégralité de l'interview sur go.ted.com/adamkucharski).

Enquanto a ameaça da COVID-19 continua, Adam Kucharski, especialista em doenças infecciosas, responde a cinco perguntas-chave sobre o novo coronavírus, dando a perspectiva necessária sobre sua transmissão, a resposta dos governos e o que pode ser necessário mudar em nosso comportamento social para acabar com essa pandemia. (Este vídeo foi extraído de uma entrevista de 70 minutos entre Kucharski e Chris Anderson, presidente do TED. Ouça a entrevista completa em: go.ted.com/adamkucharski)

코로나 19의 위협이 계속됨에 따라 전염병 전문가 아담 쿠차르스키는 코로나바이러스에 대한 다섯 가지 질문에 답하고, 확산 방법과 정부의 대응 방식, 그리고 유행병을 종식시키기 위한 행동 양식을 알려줍니다. (이 영상은 쿠차르스키와 TED 대표 크리스 안더슨 사이의 70분 가량의 인터뷰에서 발췌한 것입니다. go.ted.com/adamkucharski 에서 전체 인터뷰를 들으실 수 있습니다.)

As the threat of COVID-19 continues, infectious disease expert and TED Fellow Adam Kucharski answers five key questions about the novel coronavirus, providing necessary perspective on its transmission, how governments have responded and what might need to change about our social behavior to end the pandemic. (This video is excerpted from a 70-minute interview between Kucharski and head of TED Chris Anderson. Listen to the full interview at http://go.ted.com/adamkucharski. Recorded March 11, 2020)

Infectious disease expert Adam Kucharski uses mathematical models to help the world understand how diseases like Ebola and Zika spread, and how they can be controlled. Now, as the threat of COVID-19 continues to rise, he gives us a necessary perspective on its transmission, how governments have responded and what needs to change in order to end the pandemic.

Governments globally are taking serious measures to halt the spread of the covid-19 coronavirus, from shutting schools to cancelling major events. On the panel for this special episode dedicated to the disease are New Scientist journalists Rowan Hooper, Penny Sarchet and Donna Lu. The team is joined by Adam Kucharski, associate professor in epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Adam answers questions on the biology of the disease, what the true fatality rates are, and when the outbreak might finally fizzle out. Also on the agenda is the impact the outbreak is having on the economy, and the importance of washing your hands. To find out more about the stories mentioned in this episode, subscribe at newscientist.com/podcasts.

In his new book The Rules of Contagion: Why Things Spread - And Why They Stop, epidemiologist Adam Kucharski reveals how mathematical approaches transform what we know about contagion. Adam Kucharski is an associate professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. A mathematician by training, his work on global outbreaks such as the Ebola epidemic and the Zika virus has taken him from villages in the Pacific Islands to hospitals in Latin America. He is a TED fellow and winner of the 2016 Rosalind Franklin Award Lecture and the 2012 Wellcome Trust Science Writing Prize, and also the author of The Perfect Bet: How Science and Maths Are Taking the Luck Out of Gambling. His writing has appeared in the Observer, Financial Times, Scientific American, and New Statesman. 5x15 brings together five outstanding individuals to tell of their lives, passions and inspirations. There are only two rules - no scripts and only 15 minutes each. Learn more about 5x15 events: 5x15stories.com Twitter: www.twitter.com/5x15stories Facebook: www.facebook.com/5x15stories Instagram: www.instagram.com/5x15stories

Dr Adam Kucharski talks us through mathematical modelling – what it is and its crucial role during disease outbreaks like the novel coronavirus. He also explores the implications of using certain language during outbreaks, and answers a question from one of our listeners. To discover LSHTM's latest modelling work visit https://cmmid.github.io/ncov.

Dịch virus corona mới (COVID-19) trở thành đại dịch đe dọa toàn cầu, chỉ ba tuần lễ sau khi Trung Quốc thông báo với WHO về sự xuất hiện virus gây viêm phổi cấp tính bí ẩn tại Vũ Hán. Vì sao virus corona mới thành đại dịch ? Phải chăng việc Bắc Kinh che giấu thông tin là nguyên nhân chính dẫn đến dịch bệnh bùng phát nhanh chóng vượt tầm kiểm soát ? Cuối tháng Giêng 2020, chỉ vài ngày sau khi Bắc Kinh thừa nhận dịch virus corona mới, tỉnh Hồ Bắc, với hơn 50 triệu dân, đột ngột bị phong tỏa. Vũ Hán, một đô thị sầm suất 10 triệu dân biến thành thành phố ''ma''. Hơn 1.000 người chết từ đó đến nay, hơn 40.000 người nhiễm virus, theo con số chính thức của chính quyền Trung Quốc. Theo một thông tin do ứng dụng của Tencent (một tập đoàn tin học Nhà nước Trung Quốc), công bố hai lần trên mạng, ngày 01/02/2020, (trước khi bị xóa bỏ) số lượng người nhiễm cao gấp 10 lần con số do chính quyền công bố, số người chết gấp 80 lần (Chloé Froissart, ''Le coronavirus révèle la matrice totalitaire du régime chinois'', Le Monde, ngày 11/02/2020). Nhà dịch tễ học Adam Kucharski, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, trong bài trả lời hãng tin Bloomberg, đăng tải 08/02/2020, ước tính riêng tại Vũ Hán có khoảng 500.000 người nhiễm bệnh. Tổng thư ký Tổ Chức Y Tế Thế Giới (WHO) cũng khẳng định số lượng người nhiễm virus chính thức công bố có thể chỉ là phần nổi của tảng băng chìm. Cho đến nay, chính quyền Trung Quốc khẳng định đã minh bạch thông tin, và mở cửa cho sự hợp tác quốc tế trong việc đối phó với dịch bệnh. Ngày 31/12/2019, chính quyền Trung Quốc đã thông báo với WHO về sự xuất hiện của một loại virus lạ gây viêm phổi cấp tại Vũ Hán, thủ phủ tỉnh Hồ Bắc, miền trung Trung Quốc. Ngay sau khi Bắc Kinh công bố dịch, phong tỏa Vũ Hán, tổng thống Mỹ Donald Trump đã nhiệt liệt ca ngợi ''sự minh bạch'' của chính quyền Trung Quốc, đã có các hành động hiệu quả nhằm ngăn chặn dịch bệnh. Trung Quốc cũng khẳng định đã cung cấp cho quốc tế nhiều thông tin về chuỗi gien của virus corona mới, giúp cho giới khoa học quốc tế hiểu rõ hơn về loài virus lạ. Nhiều nhà khoa học thừa nhận trong đợt dịch này, giới y học Trung Quốc đã phản ứng nhanh chóng hơn hẳn, minh bạch hơn hẳn so với đợt dịch SARS năm 2002 - 2003. Thời gian từ khi WHO được thông báo có virus gây viêm phổi cấp tính mới cho đến khi Trung Quốc chính thức công bố dịch là 3 tuần. Ba tuần lễ phải chăng là vừa đủ cho việc xem xét và công bố dịch bệnh thông thường, và nếu có sai lầm, phải chăng chính quyền Bắc Kinh chỉ phạm lỗi đã phản ứng chậm trễ, không hình dung hết tầm mức nguy hiểm của loài virus corona mới ? Đi ngược quy trình đối phó dịch tễ thông thường Để tìm lời giải cho băn khoăn này, RFI Tiếng Việt đặt câu hỏi trước hết với bác sĩ Trần Tuấn, Tiến sĩ y tế cộng đồng, người có nhiều năm nghiên cứu về hệ thống phòng chống dịch Việt Nam, một quốc gia có nhiều điểm tương đồng với Trung Quốc (theo ghi nhận của TS Trần Tuấn). Tiến sĩ Trần Tuấn nhận xét : ''Điểm thứ nhất chúng tôi nhận thấy là dường như hệ thống phòng chống dịch của Trung Quốc đã không được khởi động đúng của khoa học về dịch tễ học, điều tra về vụ dịch. Bằng chứng là sự can thiệp của cảnh sát đối với trường hợp bác sĩ Lý Văn Lượng. Khi các bác sĩ trao đổi chuyên môn về sự xuất hiện của một loại dịch bệnh, mang tính chất lây nhiễm tương tự như SARS, cần phải phòng chống, thì thay vì coi đấy là những đầu mối để khởi động một cuộc điều tra dịch tễ học, hình thành giả thuyết về khả năng xuất hiện của loại dịch bệnh mới hay không, để tiến hành điều tra theo các bước đã được nêu trong ngành dịch tễ học. Đọc thêm : Virus corona: Dân Trung Quốc phẫn nộ về cái chết của bác sĩ đã cảnh báo dịch bệnh Quan sát thứ hai của chúng tôi là cho đến nay thông tin toàn bộ về số mất, số chết, cũng như toàn bộ cụ thể nguồn lây, cũng như tiến trình thời gian xuất hiện hoàn toàn phụ thuộc vào báo cáo của Trung Quốc. Nhìn vào hệ thống này, chúng ta thấy là dường như các thông tin được giải phóng cho một mục tiêu làm giảm nhẹ mức độ thực tế của bệnh, hơn là đưa ra cho công luận biết mà ngăn ngừa. Bằng chứng là giải phóng thông tin ban đầu cho rằng dịch xuất phát từ một chợ hải sản, buôn bán động vật sống, rồi ngay cả khi khẳng định virus thuộc nhóm corona, thì họ cũng vẫn cho rằng đường lan truyền chỉ giới hạn từ động vật sang người, không có từ người sang người. Do đấy mức độ lây lan được coi là hạn chế rất nhiều. Điểm thứ ba là sự can thiệp của chính quyền không tuân thủ theo khoa học dịch tễ học. Bằng chứng là sau khi thực hiện việc đóng cửa chợ hải sản (ngày 01/01/2020), thì lý do của việc đóng cửa chợ cũng không nói với dân là do nghi ngờ là tâm điểm ổ dịch phát tán, mà do sửa chữa chợ. Như thế có thể nói là họ đã không khởi động hệ thống cảnh báo và xem xét vấn đề dịch bệnh. Từ đó, điều này sẽ giải thích việc khởi động bộ máy phòng chống dịch chậm, cùng với sự lúng túng của bệnh viện trong việc đáp ứng được các điều trị khi dịch nổ ra và bệnh nhân đổ dồn đến (cả trường hợp mắc bệnh và trường hợp nghi ngờ đến xét nghiệm). Và từ đó dẫn đến cái mà chúng tôi gọi là sự khủng hoảng nguồn lực y tế đáp ứng tình hình dịch''. Phương tiện hùng hậu, nhưng bộ máy xơ cứng Hiện tại chính quyền Trung Quốc tỏ ra minh bạch trong việc hàng ngày cung cấp số lượng người mới bị nhiễm và số người chết do virus COVID-19. Toàn bộ hệ thống chính quyền khẳng định dốc toàn lực vào cuộc chiến chống virus. Có một sự tương phản vô cùng lớn giữa cuộc chiến chống virus COVID-19, đầy quyết tâm, đầy khí thế của lãnh đạo Trung Quốc hiện nay, với tình trạng chậm trễ, bị động trong giai đoạn trước khi chính quyền thừa nhận dịch. Vì sao hệ thống y tế Trung Quốc đã phản ứng bị động như vậy ? Tiến sĩ Trần Tuấn giải thích: ''Hệ thống này, phòng dịch hay y tế nói chung, là thụ động, vận hành theo mục tiêu của chính quyền, vận hành theo cách mà chúng tôi gọi là vì mục tiêu ''ổn định chính trị'', hơn là mục tiêu phòng chống dịch bảo vệ sức khỏe cộng đồng. Vì thế toàn bộ tiến trình điều tra vụ dịch đã không đáp ứng được đúng theo yêu cầu thời gian, cũng như là cho kế hoạch chuẩn bị đối phó với dịch của ngành y tế Vũ Hán, bị động, bị chậm''. Trải nghiệm của bác sĩ Bành Chí Dũng (Peng Zhiyong), một bệnh viện ở Vũ Hán, về thái độ quan liêu của giới quan chức y tế trung ương, cho thấy việc thừa nhận dịch bệnh đã bị chậm đi một nhịp, vào một thời điểm bước ngoặt ngày 12/01, sau khi có trường hợp đầu tiên tử vong vì COVID-19. ''Vào ngày 12 tháng 1, cơ quan y tế trung ương đã cử một nhóm gồm ba chuyên gia đến bệnh viện Trung Nam để điều tra. Các chuyên gia nói rằng các triệu chứng lâm sàng thực sự giống với SARS, nhưng họ vẫn nói về các tiêu chuẩn chẩn đoán… Chúng tôi trả lời rằng những tiêu chuẩn đó nghiêm ngặt quá mức. Trên thực tế, theo tiêu chuẩn như vậy, rất ít người có thể được kiểm tra virus''. Cũng vào thời điểm này, một nghiên cứu dịch tễ học quốc tế đã chỉ ra mức độ lây nhiễm virus COVID-19 tại Vũ Hán có thể đã lên đến hơn 1.700 người (so với đánh giá của Trung Quốc chỉ có vài chục người). Đã phát hiện người nhiễm virus ngoài lãnh thổ Trung Quốc. Viện Pasteur Pháp, ngay từ ngày 10/01, đã chuẩn bị các bộ xét nghiệm nhanh, để chẩn đoán virus COVID-19, sẵn sàng đối phó với bệnh dịch dự đoán sẽ khó lường. Vẫn theo bác sĩ Bành Chí Dũng, chỉ cho đến ngày 18/01, các chuyên gia cấp cao của Ủy Ban Y Tế Quốc Gia khi đến Vũ Hán lần nữa mới chấp nhận sửa đổi các tiêu chí đánh giá bệnh. Số lượng bệnh nhân được chẩn đoán nhiễm virus COVID-19 tăng vọt. (''Reporter's Notebook: Life and death in a Wuhan coronavirus ICU'' / Sống chết tại khoa chăm sóc đặc biệt người nhiễm virus corona ở Vũ Hán, Straits Times, 06/02/2020). Trận dịch phơi trần ''bản chất'' chế độ Tiến sĩ Trần Tuấn nhấn mạnh đến tính chất hùng hậu về phương tiện của hệ thống y tế Trung Quốc hoàn toàn tương phản với phản ứng rất kém hiệu quả với dịch bệnh của chính hệ thống này: ''Có thể nhìn thấy các yếu tố mang tính hệ thống đặc trưng của Trung Quốc khiến cho dịch đã phát tán lan truyền, và khả năng kiểm soát dịch không được hiệu quả. Yếu tố đầu tiên chúng ta nhận thấy là Trung Quốc có một hệ thống bệnh viện trang thiết bị tốt, về tài chính hoàn toàn có khả năng kiểm soát một vụ dịch, nhưng mà hệ thống này là bị động trong việc điều tra, phòng chống. Sự bị động này là do hệ thống quản lý xã hội của Trung Quốc đã đặt mục tiêu an ninh lên trên mục tiêu sức khỏe cộng đồng. Chúng ta thấy là khi hệ thống đã vận hành mà không được ưu tiên dẫn đường bởi khoa học, mà là ưu tiên vì mục tiêu chính trị, thì phải nói rằng là tiến trình này đã xảy ra trong một thời gian dài, tạo thành một nếp làm việc quen trong hệ thống cán bộ, và như thế nó dẫn đến tình trạng mảng điều tra và khống chế dịch sẽ bị hạn chế, điều hành bởi phần chính trị nhiều hơn là các phần chuyên môn… Có thể thấy Trung Quốc thực sự có một mâu thuẫn là, hệ thống y tế, hệ thống xét nghiệm, hệ thống nghiên cứu y sinh học, phát hiện virus trong phòng thí nghiệm là mạnh. Bằng chứng là chỉ 10 ngày sau khi thông báo với WHO về virus mới, Trung Quốc đã phân lập được virus corona này. Trong phòng xét nghiệm, và về mặt khoa học cơ bản, Trung Quốc đáp ứng tốt, nhưng vận dụng cái đó cho mục tiêu sức khỏe cộng đồng thì lại yếu, vì có sự can thiệp của chính trị trong việc triển khai các hoạt động truyền thông cộng đồng, phòng chống dịch. Ở đây có thể thấy là từ đặc tính của Trung Quốc, khi luôn luôn đặt mục tiêu chính trị lên cao, chúng tôi nhận thấy báo cáo về sức khỏe cộng đồng thường rơi vào tình trạng tốt đẹp đưa ra, còn những gì là dịch bệnh, những gì có xu hướng xấu thì lại che đậy''. Về phần mình, nhà Trung Quốc học Chloé Froissart, giảng viên chính trị học (Đại học Rennes 2), nhấn mạnh đến sự tương phản cao độ giữa các thông tin về dịch bệnh lưu hành trong giới chuyên môn Trung Quốc, thông tin của chính quyền Trung Quốc với các đối tác bên ngoài và thông tin của chính quyền với người dân trong nước, người dân tại Vũ Hán. Trong lúc Bắc Kinh thông báo bệnh dịch với WHO ngay từ ngày 31/12/2019, thì tuyệt đại đa số dân chúng tại địa phương hoàn toàn không hay biết là có dịch, trước khi dịch được chính thức công bố ngày 20/01. Trong vòng nhiều ngày, chính quyền Trung Quốc đã hạn chế cung cấp thông tin về dịch bệnh virus mới, trong lúc một cuộc họp quan trọng của đảng Cộng Sản được tổ chức tại thành phố Vũ Hán. Ngày 18/01, đúng vào lúc dịch đang bùng phát, một đại tiệc mừng Tết nguyên đán đã được chính quyền tổ chức, với sự tham gia của 40.000 gia đình. Rất nhiều người đã bị nhiễm virus trong dịp này. Bộ mặt tươi đẹp của chế độ và hiểm họa virus Hệ thống y tế Trung Quốc hoàn toàn xơ cứng không đủ khả năng đối mặt với dịch bệnh mới. Thông tin cần thiết cho phát hiện dịch bị ngăn chặn từ mọi phía. Trong bối cảnh được đánh giá là hết sức nhạy cảm, với cuộc chiến thương mại với Hoa Kỳ, phong trào đòi dân chủ dâng cao tại Hồng Kông, thắng lợi vang dội của phe đòi độc lập với Trung Quốc tại Đài Loan trong bầu cử, đối với chính quyền Bắc Kinh cũng như với chính quyền địa phương các cấp, mục tiêu bảo vệ bộ mặt tươi đẹp của chế độ được đặt lên trước hết, hiểm họa virus kinh hoàng đã bị toàn bộ hệ thống chính trị Trung Quốc nhắm mắt làm ngơ, cho đến khi không còn đường lùi. Trả giá nặng nề nhất cho sự che giấu, chối bỏ, thờ ơ này trước hết là người dân Vũ Hán, người dân Hồ Bắc, mà tổn thất về nhân mạng chưa biết ra sao (việc Vũ Hán, và nhiều địa phương khác, bị cô lập đột ngột, trong tình trạng thiếu chuẩn bị, cũng bị nhiều người lên án, cho là nguyên nhân khiến tình hình dịch bệnh tại các khu vực này thêm tồi tệ hơn). Việc trở lại tìm hiểu những nguyên nhân chính nào đã dẫn đến việc Trung Quốc thất bại trong việc kiểm soát dịch ắt hẳn cũng có thể mang lại những bài học có ích cho việc nhận dạng dịch bệnh, kiềm chế dịch bệnh vốn đang diễn biến hết sức khó lường trong hiện tại. Những bài học rất có thể sẽ đặc biệt bổ ích cho các quốc gia có nhiều điểm tương đồng với chế độ Trung Quốc về hệ thống y tế, về quan hệ giữa chính quyền với y tế, như trường hợp Việt Nam.

We want to hear from you! Please get in touch by emailing comms@lshtm.ac.uk and let us know what you would like to hear on the podcast. Stay tuned for upcoming episodes with top outbreak-modeller Adam Kucharski and Professor David Heymann who led the WHO's response to SARS in 2003.

Adam Kucharski is an assistant professor in the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.  His research uses mathematical and statistical models to understand disease outbreaks.  In 2014, he was recruited to analyze the Ebola epidemic in West Africa.  Adam earned his PhD in applied maths at the University of Cambridge. 1.  What is it about gambling that seems to attract world-class mathematicians throughout history? 2.  What mathematical techniques have been best applied successfully to gambling? 3.  What was the genesis and evolution of Monte Carlo simulation?  What are its shortcoming? 4.  Why is poker such a good challenge for artificial intelligence? 5.  In free chess, computers-plus-human hybrids are still currently getting the best of computer-only opponents.  What are the implications for other domains like gambling and investing?

The house always wins. Or does it? Mathematician Adam Kucharski looks at the mathematics, economics and physics of gambling.

Over the last two months the Government in the Philippines has been encouraging the police to clampdown on the illegal drug trade. The new President, Rodrigo Duterte, went as far as saying that citizens could shoot and kill drug dealers who resisted arrest, and the killings of drug suspects were lawful if the police acted in self-defence. The press have been reporting numbers of how many people have been killed during the crackdown – but how much trust can we put in these figures? Lottery wins We interview Adam Kucharski, author of The Perfect Bet, to find out if maths can give you an edge to playing the lottery or gambling.

From maths hacks to poker playing bots, could there be a science to help you win big at the casino? Georgia Mills has been practising her poker face with help from Adam Kucharski... Like this podcast? Please help us by supporting the Naked Scientists

From maths hacks to poker playing bots, could there be a science to help you win big at the casino? Georgia Mills has been practising her poker face with help from Adam Kucharski... Like this podcast? Please help us by supporting the Naked Scientists

Mathematician and author Adam Kucharski talks about his new book The Perfect Bet: How Science and Math Are Taking the Luck Out of Gambling (Basic Books, 2016).  

Adam Kucharski, who won the 2012 Wellcome Trust Science Writing Prize, has delivered another winner in an area rife with both winners and losers. The Perfect Bet: How Science and Math Are Taking the Luck Out of Gambling (Basic Books, 2016) is a brilliant, fascinating, and sometimes slightly terrifying look at how math and science are not just conquering gambling, the algorithms that math has devised and the computerized means of implementing them are paradoxically simultaneously removing risk and creating a lot more of it. Jim Stein is an emeritus professor of mathematics at California State University, Long Beach. As has been noted, the word ’emeritus’ comes from the Latin ‘ex’ — meaning ‘out’ — and ‘meritus’ — meaning ‘ought to be’. Despite that, Jim still teaches a course a semester, either at CSULB or El Camino Community College. He is the author of L.A. Math: Romance, Crime and Mathematics in the City of Angels, Cosmic Numbers: The Numbers That Define the Universe, The Paranormal Equation, How Math Can Save Your Life, The Right Decision, and How Math Can Save the World. He responds to any and all emails addressed to jim.stein@csulb.edu Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Adam Kucharski, who won the 2012 Wellcome Trust Science Writing Prize, has delivered another winner in an area rife with both winners and losers. The Perfect Bet: How Science and Math Are Taking the Luck Out of Gambling (Basic Books, 2016) is a brilliant, fascinating, and sometimes slightly terrifying look at how math and science are not just conquering gambling, the algorithms that math has devised and the computerized means of implementing them are paradoxically simultaneously removing risk and creating a lot more of it. Jim Stein is an emeritus professor of mathematics at California State University, Long Beach. As has been noted, the word ’emeritus’ comes from the Latin ‘ex’ — meaning ‘out’ — and ‘meritus’ — meaning ‘ought to be’. Despite that, Jim still teaches a course a semester, either at CSULB or El Camino Community College. He is the author of L.A. Math: Romance, Crime and Mathematics in the City of Angels, Cosmic Numbers: The Numbers That Define the Universe, The Paranormal Equation, How Math Can Save Your Life, The Right Decision, and How Math Can Save the World. He responds to any and all emails addressed to jim.stein@csulb.edu Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Adam Kucharski, who won the 2012 Wellcome Trust Science Writing Prize, has delivered another winner in an area rife with both winners and losers. The Perfect Bet: How Science and Math Are Taking the Luck Out of Gambling (Basic Books, 2016) is a brilliant, fascinating, and sometimes slightly terrifying look at how math and science are not just conquering gambling, the algorithms that math has devised and the computerized means of implementing them are paradoxically simultaneously removing risk and creating a lot more of it. Jim Stein is an emeritus professor of mathematics at California State University, Long Beach. As has been noted, the word ’emeritus’ comes from the Latin ‘ex’ — meaning ‘out’ — and ‘meritus’ — meaning ‘ought to be’. Despite that, Jim still teaches a course a semester, either at CSULB or El Camino Community College. He is the author of L.A. Math: Romance, Crime and Mathematics in the City of Angels, Cosmic Numbers: The Numbers That Define the Universe, The Paranormal Equation, How Math Can Save Your Life, The Right Decision, and How Math Can Save the World. He responds to any and all emails addressed to jim.stein@csulb.edu Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Adam Kucharski, who won the 2012 Wellcome Trust Science Writing Prize, has delivered another winner in an area rife with both winners and losers. The Perfect Bet: How Science and Math Are Taking the Luck Out of Gambling (Basic Books, 2016) is a brilliant, fascinating, and sometimes slightly terrifying look at how math and science are not just conquering gambling, the algorithms that math has devised and the computerized means of implementing them are paradoxically simultaneously removing risk and creating a lot more of it. Jim Stein is an emeritus professor of mathematics at California State University, Long Beach. As has been noted, the word ’emeritus’ comes from the Latin ‘ex’ — meaning ‘out’ — and ‘meritus’ — meaning ‘ought to be’. Despite that, Jim still teaches a course a semester, either at CSULB or El Camino Community College. He is the author of L.A. Math: Romance, Crime and Mathematics in the City of Angels, Cosmic Numbers: The Numbers That Define the Universe, The Paranormal Equation, How Math Can Save Your Life, The Right Decision, and How Math Can Save the World. He responds to any and all emails addressed to jim.stein@csulb.edu Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Adam Kucharski, who won the 2012 Wellcome Trust Science Writing Prize, has delivered another winner in an area rife with both winners and losers. The Perfect Bet: How Science and Math Are Taking the Luck Out of Gambling (Basic Books, 2016) is a brilliant, fascinating, and sometimes slightly terrifying look at how math and science are not just conquering gambling, the algorithms that math has devised and the computerized means of implementing them are paradoxically simultaneously removing risk and creating a lot more of it. Jim Stein is an emeritus professor of mathematics at California State University, Long Beach. As has been noted, the word ’emeritus’ comes from the Latin ‘ex’ — meaning ‘out’ — and ‘meritus’ — meaning ‘ought to be’. Despite that, Jim still teaches a course a semester, either at CSULB or El Camino Community College. He is the author of L.A. Math: Romance, Crime and Mathematics in the City of Angels, Cosmic Numbers: The Numbers That Define the Universe, The Paranormal Equation, How Math Can Save Your Life, The Right Decision, and How Math Can Save the World. He responds to any and all emails addressed to jim.stein@csulb.edu Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Adam Kucharski, who won the 2012 Wellcome Trust Science Writing Prize, has delivered another winner in an area rife with both winners and losers. The Perfect Bet: How Science and Math Are Taking the Luck Out of Gambling (Basic Books, 2016) is a brilliant, fascinating, and sometimes slightly terrifying look... Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We’ve been out and about this month, interviewing researchers in Glasgow, Manchester and Galway for the podcast. Up first, Ben travelled to Scotland to chat with Dr Adam Kucharski from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Adam is an expert in disease modelling, and he told us how his work is helping in the fight against the ongoing Ebola outbreak. Books and films are full of end-of-the-world microbiological fiction, but can they be used to help engage the public with the fundamentals of disease research? Anand went to Manchester to speak with Professor Jo Verran, founder of the Bad Bugs Book Club. A few weeks ago, Ben attended the Society’s Irish Division Meeting in Galway. There were lots of great talks, and he got a chance to grab a few minutes with Professors Kim Lewis and Martin Cormican. Kim is Director of the Antimicrobial Discovery Center at Northeastern University, Boston, USA, while Martin is Professor of Bacteriology and a Consultant Microbiologist at NUI Galway. Both are interested in antibiotic resistance, but are coming at it from different angles… Image credit: Phalinn Ooi under CC BY 2.0

The rise and fall of an online epidemic: How studying the spread of infectious diseases suggests the global drinking craze Neknomination will fizzle out. Drinkers post videos of their exploits and nominate others to do the same – but eventually the fad will run out of steam says epidemiologist Adam Kucharski from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Plus, while politicians debate how much to tax the rich in France and the UK– we look at which countries levy the highest and the lowest rates of income tax for both the wealthy and average worker. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.