Bit of a Tangent

Kat Woods is an effective altruist and the co-founder of Nonlinear, which incubates longtermist nonprofits by connecting founders with ideas, funding, and mentorship. Gianluca and Kat discuss brain hacks for curing imposter syndrome and being more agentic, infohazards, the simulation hypothesis, why you don't need permission to do things, “passive impact” via automation, and Kat's exciting new projects at Nonlinear. -------- Shownotes: -------- Kat Woods on Twitter: www.twitter.com/Kat__Woods Gianluca on Twitter: www.twitter.com/QVagabond Kat's blog: www.katwoods.org/ Nonlinear: www.nonlinear.org/ Effective Altruism (EA): https://www.effectivealtruism.org/ The Effective Altruism Handbook: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/handbook Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/10016013-harry-potter-and-the-methods-of-rationality Replacing Guilt: https://anchor.fm/guilt SMBC cartoon on compatibilism: www.smbc-comics.com/comic/compatibilism  Nonlinear Library (podcast): https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/JTZTBienqWEAjGDRv/listen-to-more-ea-content-with-the-nonlinear-library Kat's post on text-to-speech automation: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tAWK33eNXZKMckPhn/how-and-why-to-turn-everything-into-audio EA Houses: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4zHWQNzCusaTfD7jz/ea-houses-live-or-stay-with-eas-around-the-world Nonlinear support fund: www.nonlinear.org/productivity-fund.html Nonlinear bounty programme: https://super-linear.org/ EA hiring agency: https://second-bellflower-54f.notion.site/EA-Hiring-Agency-0d6d75a0f5934455be9003fd7886d537 Nonlinear newsletter: www.nonlinear.org/subscribe.html Bit of a Tangent on Twitter: www.twitter.com/podtangent Bit of a Tangent on Instagram: instagram.com/podtangent/

In this episode, Gianluca and Jared discuss the neurobiology of predictive processing, the role of dopamine in reward signalling, satisfaction, and human desire. They also touch on the relation of reward to reinforcement learning and artificial intelligence.  The podcast then shifts to discuss the clinical manifestations of the predictive brain, including the computational psychiatry of depression, autism-spectrum-disorder, and schizophrenia, and how top-down prediction, and precision-weighted prediction error explain central aspects of these conditions. -------- Shownotes: -------- Jared on Twitter: www.twitter.com/jnearestn Gianluca on Twitter: www.twitter.com/QVagabond Bit of a Tangent on Twitter (www.twitter.com/podtangent) and Instagram (instagram.com/podtangent/) Last episode: https://www.podtangent.com/e/029-predictive-processing-2-where-the-action-is/

This week's episode of Bit of a Tangent is a continuation of our 3 part series on Predictive Processing - a fascinating neuroscientific account of the way our brains come to understand the world. If you haven't already listened to part 1 (episode 028), check that out first!  In this episode Gianluca and Jared discuss the importance of sensory precision, the circular causality of prediction and action, how action comes about in a counterintuitive way from high confidence predictions, the way in which prior expectations can bias sensory sampling, and how this could lead to self-fulfilling spirals that would make your life either much worse or much better! Find us on Twitter @podtangent

It's here. It's finally here! The first in a series of three episodes diving into the predictive processing theory of brain function! Jared and Gianluca discuss top-down versus bottom-up perception, Bayesian Brain hypotheses, the logic of caring only about prediction error, and the phenomenology of visual illusions!  

Gianluca and Jared have survived 2020 (so far) and are back for Season 3 of Bit of a Tangent. In this episode they bring you 7 new habits and techniques that can be used to iteratively upgrade yourself — even in lockdown. Forget everything else that's going on in the world, and take a deep dive into personal optimisation. Or, as they'd put it, prepare to geek out on organisation hacks, bootstrapped learning, and motivation pumps.  -------- Shownotes: -------- Jared on Twitter: www.twitter.com/jnearestn Gianluca on Twitter: www.twitter.com/QVagabond Bit of a Tangent on Twitter (www.twitter.com/podtangent) and Instagram (instagram.com/podtangent/) Last episode: https://www.podtangent.com/e/026-drink-and-be-rational/ Matt D'Avella's video on Checklists: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8n2vL2I__WY Alex Vermeer's Tangibles: https://alexvermeer.com/tangibles/ Roam research: https://roamresearch.com/ Put iPhone in grayscale: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JNuziJOl61o FitNotes Android app: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.github.jamesgay.fitnotes Matt D'Avella's 30-day challenges: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLXKuahfdkl6zkBULJhEMNy_RnErOYXwJk How Jerry Seinfeld writes jokes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=itWxXyCfW5s Anki (flashcards tool): https://apps.ankiweb.net/ Michael Nielsen's essay on learning with Anki: http://augmentingcognition.com/ltm.html POLAR bookshelf software: https://getpolarized.io/ How to wrap your headphones up: https://youtu.be/3_FueKBoRO0?t=171

[Epistemic status: slightly intoxicated] Jared and Gianluca exchange rapid-fire questions whilst becoming increasingly inebriated. Think of this episode as the Ferriss/Rose “Random Show,” but with more references to Bayesian inference. It's pretty likely to entertain you, but hopefully you'll find it interesting too. Topics include Email response times, VR projects, and the statistical approach to an ethical diet.  -------- Shownotes: -------- Jared on Twitter: www.twitter.com/jnearestn Gianluca on Twitter: www.twitter.com/QVagabond Bit of a Tangent on Twitter (www.twitter.com/podtangent) and Instagram (instagram.com/podtangent/) Last episode: https://www.podtangent.com/e/025-self-supervised-machine-learning-introduction-intuitions-and-use-cases/ The Game Changers: www.imdb.com/title/tt7455754/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1 Joe Rogan Experience #1389 - Chris Kresser Debunks "The Gamechangers" Documentary: www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dq4Apc2Xk7Q Sam Altman on Conversations with Tyler: conversationswithtyler.com/episodes/sam-altman/ Top 19 Ideas from 2019: www.podtangent.com/e/021-the-top-19-ideas-from-2019/ Jared's Twitter thread (19 ideas I couldn't stop thinking about in 2019): https://twitter.com/jnearestn/status/1211681767742156803 Donald Knuth on Lex Fridman's podcast: https://lexfridman.com/donald-knuth/ Glen Weyl on the 80000 Hours podcast: https://soundcloud.com/80000-hours/glen-weyl-radically-reforming-capitalism-and-democracy Eric and Brett Weinstein talking about DISC and the failings of peer review on The Portal: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/19-bret-weinstein-the-prediction-and-the-disc/id1469999563?i=1000462975502 Gianluca's paper on arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.05363 This equation will change how you see the world by Veritasium: www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovJcsL7vyrk

On this episode of Bit of A Tangent, we discuss the emerging field of self-supervised machine learning. This is an immensely exciting area of active research in machine learning and AI - one which most people haven't even heard about yet! We build up to the intuition for the topic by covering supervised and unsupervised learning; autoencoders and dimensionality reduction, and exploring how these techniques could be applied to Gianluca's Quantified Self n=1 sleep quality dataset. We culminate in a detailed discussion of the state-of-the-art Contrastive Predictive Coding model, and how it allows us to learn about the structure of the world, without tonnes of labelled training data! -------- Shownotes: -------- Jared on Twitter: www.twitter.com/jnearestn Gianluca on Twitter: www.twitter.com/QVagabond Bit of a Tangent on Twitter (www.twitter.com/podtangent) and Instagram (instagram.com/podtangent/) Summer school on Computational Neuroscience: http://imbizo.africa/ Control problem in AI: https://intelligence.org/stanford-talk/ Coordination problem: https://conceptually.org/concepts/coordination-problems Deep learning overview: https://lilianweng.github.io/lil-log/2017/06/21/an-overview-of-deep-learning.html t-SNE explained: https://mlexplained.com/2018/09/14/paper-dissected-visualizing-data-using-t-sne-explained/ Variational autoencoders explained: https://anotherdatum.com/vae.html Self-supervised learning by fast.ai: https://www.fast.ai/2020/01/13/self_supervised/ CPC model papers on Arxiv: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1807.03748.pdf https://arxiv.org/pdf/1905.09272.pdf  Blog posts explaining CPC: https://lilianweng.github.io/lil-log/2019/11/10/self-supervised-learning.html https://yann-leguilly.gitlab.io/post/2019-09-29-representation-learning-with-contrastive-predictive-coding/ https://mf1024.github.io/2019/05/27/contrastive-predictive-coding/

Gianluca announces his latest project—the audio version of Nate Soares' Replacing Guilt series—and Jared explains why it's a notable contribution to the rationalist community. Together, they discuss how to gain the most from listening to the series and why it's something you should strongly consider doing if you often find yourself binging Netflix until 3 AM.   -------- Shownotes: -------- Replacing Guilt podcast: https://anchor.fm/guilt Rationality: From AI to Zombies podcast: www.from-ai-to-zombies.eu/ SlateStarCodex podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/slate-star-codex-podcast/id1295289140 Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality (audio): http://www.hpmorpodcast.com/ Jared on Twitter: www.twitter.com/jnearestn Gianluca on Twitter: www.twitter.com/QVagabond Bit of a Tangent on Twitter (twitter.com/podtangent) and Instagram (instagram.com/podtangent/)

Jared and Gianluca have an uncompromising exchange about computational neuroscience and its implications for life and AI research. --------------- Shownotes: --------------- Jared on Twitter: www.twitter.com/jnearestn Gianluca on Twitter: www.twitter.com/QVagabond Bit of a Tangent on Twitter (twitter.com/podtangent) and Instagram (instagram.com/podtangent/) Last episode: www.podtangent.com/e/022-6-books-you-need-to-read-in-2020/ Ideas episode: www.podtangent.com/e/021-the-top-19-ideas-from-2019/ The Portal podcast episode with Garrett Lisi: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/15-garrett-lisi-my-arch-nemesis-myself/id1469999563?i=1000458879827 Don Hoffman on Sam Harris' podcast: https://samharris.org/subscriber-extras/178-reality-illusion/

Gianluca presents his much-requested three non-fiction and three fiction recommendations for 2020. Jared recommends a book so long and gripping that you should probably avoid it if you have anything productive to do in the next six months.  --------------- Shownotes: --------------- Jared (twitter.com/jnearestn) and Gianluca (twitter.com/QVagabond) on Twitter Bit of a Tangent on Twitter (twitter.com/podtangent) and Instagram (www.instagram.com/podtangent/) Last week's episode: www.podtangent.com/e/021-the-top-19-ideas-from-2019/ Gianluca on Goodreads: www.goodreads.com/user/show/56535709-gianluca Books Gianluca read in 2019: www.goodreads.com/user_challenges/14773941 Algorithms to Live By, by Brian Christian and Tom Griffiths: www.goodreads.com/book/show/25666050-algorithms-to-live-by 80000 Hours podcast with one of the authors of Algorithms to Live By: https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/brian-christian-algorithms-to-live-by/ Inadequate Equilibria by Eliezer Yudkowsky: https://equilibriabook.com/ Eliezer Yudkowsky's Sequences: https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Sequences 007 | Game Theory, Alignment, and Civilisational Inadequacy: https://www.podtangent.com/e/007-game-theory-alignment-and-civilisational-inadequacy/ Meditations on Moloch: https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/07/30/meditations-on-moloch/ The Replacing Guilt Series by Nate Soares: http://mindingourway.com/guilt/ Half-assing it with everything you've got: http://mindingourway.com/half-assing-it-with-everything-youve-got/ Discussions of Replacing Guilt on The Bayesian Conspiracy podcast: www.thebayesianconspiracy.com/2019/08/92-replacing-guilt/ Surfing Uncertainty by Andy Clark: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/25823558-surfing-uncertainty Good Omens by Terry Pratchett and Neil Gaiman: www.goodreads.com/book/show/12067.Good_Omens Neil Gaiman on the Tim Ferriss show: https://tim.blog/2019/03/28/neil-gaiman/ The Metropolitan Man by Alexander Wales: www.goodreads.com/book/show/22872436-the-metropolitan-man Alexander Wales on the Bayesian Conspiracy podcast: www.thebayesianconspiracy.com/2018/07/63-rational-fiction/ The Metropolitan Man audiobook (free podcast): www.hpmorpodcast.com/?page_id=1705 The Three-Body Problem by Liu Cixin: www.goodreads.com/book/show/20518872-the-three-body-problem The Paper Menagerie by Ken Liu: www.goodreads.com/book/show/39803561-the-paper-menagerie Worm (the webseries you should probably never read): https://parahumans.wordpress.com/

Bit of a Tangent is back! In this episode, Jared shares the 19 ideas he couldn't stop thinking about in 2019, whilst Gianluca does two B-grade Joe Rogan impressions. Together, they discuss everything from mechanism design to personal fitness hacks, and throw in some recommendations for supercharging your learning in the new year. Strap yourselves in for a taste of the fascinating conversations that lie ahead in 2020! --------------- Shownotes: --------------- Jared (twitter.com/jnearestn) and Gianluca (twitter.com/QVagabond) on Twitter Jared's Twitter thread (19 ideas I couldn't stop thinking about in 2019): https://twitter.com/jnearestn/status/1211681767742156803 Eliezer Yudkowsky's Sequences: https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Sequences Meditations on Moloch: https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/07/30/meditations-on-moloch/ Radical Markets: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/36515770-radical-markets 007 | Game Theory, Alignment, and Civilisational Inadequacy: https://www.podtangent.com/e/007-game-theory-alignment-and-civilisational-inadequacy/ Glen Weyl on Twitter: https://twitter.com/glenweyl Mechanism design: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mechanism_design Tyler Cowen on Twitter: https://twitter.com/tylercowen Surfing Uncertainty by Andy Clark: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/25823558-surfing-uncertainty Fast.AI courses: https://www.fast.ai/ When someone tries to “Euler” you: https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/08/12/does-race-exist-does-culture/ Body by Science, by Little and McGuff: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/4642174-body-by-science FitNotes app for Android: https://www.fitnotesapp.com/ All Debates are Bravery Debates on SlateStarCodex: https://slatestarcodex.com/2013/06/09/all-debates-are-bravery-debates/ Tim Ferriss on Twitter: https://twitter.com/tferriss Naval Ravikant on Twitter: https://twitter.com/naval 011 | Slack, attention and focus: https://www.podtangent.com/e/slack-attention-and-focus-or-why-more-is-less/ 010 | Flow states, optimal performance, and PhD hunter-gathering: https://www.podtangent.com/e/010-flow-states-optimal-performance-and-phd-hunter-gathering Michael Nielsen on Twitter: https://twitter.com/michael_nielsen Anki for spaced repetition: https://apps.ankiweb.net/ 013 | How To Learn Anything: https://www.podtangent.com/e/013-how-to-learn-anything/ The 7 +-2 principle for memory: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Magical_Number_Seven,_Plus_or_Minus_Two Chunking: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chunking_(psychology) The Elephant in the Brain by Kevin Simler, Robin Hanson: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/28820444-the-elephant-in-the-brain Inadequate Equilibria by Eliezer Yudkowsky: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/36606376-inadequate-equilibria Robin Hanson on Twitter: https://twitter.com/robinhanson Awareness by Anthony de Mello: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/94318.Awareness The Cook and the Chef on WaitButWhy: https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/11/the-cook-and-the-chef-musks-secret-sauce.html Sam Harris on Twitter: https://twitter.com/SamHarrisOrg Sam's Waking Up app: https://wakingup.com/

This is part 3 of the series on Mental Models, in which Gianluca and Jared discuss the cognitive biases that often impede aspiring rationalists. They discuss the idea of “System 1 and 2” thinking as a framing for the entire discussion, before exploring 12 of the most deadly thinking traps and how to avoid them. This includes everything from the Planning Fallacy and Anchoring, to more esoteric pitfalls that are yet to be named. Finally, they describe meta-biases—like the Bias Blindspot and the Fallacy Fallacy—equipping your mental toolkit with everything you need to upgrade your thinking.  --------------- Shownotes: --------------- System 1 and 2 thinking in Kahneman's “Thinking Fast and Slow”: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/11468377-thinking-fast-and-slow An awesome resource, the Cognitive Bias Codex: https://ritholtz.com/2016/09/cognitive-bias-codex/ A superb introduction to biases by Rob Bensinger: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ptxnyfLWqRZ98wnYi/biases-an-introduction Yudkowsky on scope insensitivity: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2ftJ38y9SRBCBsCzy/scope-insensitivity [Study] Scope insensitivity: The limits of intuitive valuation of human lives in public policy: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211368114000795 Bayes' Theorem in medical testing: https://plus.maths.org/content/maths-minute-bayes-theorem Bayes' Theorem examples visualised: https://oscarbonilla.com/2009/05/visualizing-bayes-theorem/ Hamburg's philharmonic concert hall that ran 6 years and 1000% over budget: https://www.thelocal.de/20161101/700m-over-budget-hamburg-concert-hall-finally-finished-elbphilharmonie Fascinating studies on the planning fallacy in students' academic predictions: https://web.mit.edu/curhan/www/docs/Articles/biases/67_J_Personality_and_Social_Psychology_366,_1994.pdf Reference class forecasting: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reference_class_forecasting How to overcome the planning fallacy with “fudge ratios”: https://wpsmith.net/2015/improving-your-time-estimates-the-fudge-ratio/ Spinning the wheel on the anchoring bias: https://youarenotsosmart.com/2010/07/27/anchoring-effect/ “Influence” by Robert Cialdini: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/28815.Influence 016 | Free Will, Compassion, and Reinforcement Learning: https://www.podtangent.com/e/016-free-will-compassion-and-reinforcement-learning/ Inferential distances: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HLqWn5LASfhhArZ7w/expecting-short-inferential-distances Findings in Hedonic adaptation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hedonic_treadmill#Empirical_findings Dan Harris' “10% Happier” podcast: https://www.tenpercent.com/podcast The Peak-End Rule: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak%E2%80%93end_rule

This is part 2 of our series on Mental Models. In it, we're bringing you the most useful and applicable models we've encountered in everything we've read, heard or seen over the years! In part 2 we unpack models from Bayesian reasoning, calibration, and expected value. We also cover fat-tailed distributions, counterfactual reasoning, inversion, and red-teaming. Throughout, we build up each model with examples and motivations, and often found ourselves making previously unseen (by us) links to other models which gave us several new insights. We hope this conversation will do the same for you! --------------- Shownotes: --------------- Farnam Street Blog - https://fs.blog  Calibration training app by 80 000 Hours - https://80000hours.org/calibration-training/  Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock - https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/23995360-superforecasting  0 And 1 Are Not Probabilities - https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QGkYCwyC7wTDyt3yT/0-and-1-are-not-probabilities  Thinking In Bets by Annie Duke - https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/35957157-thinking-in-bets  The Black Swan by Nassim Taleb - https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/242472.The_Black_Swan  CGP Grey on 7 Ways To Maximise Misery - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LO1mTELoj6o  Claude Shannon on Creative Thinking - https://jamesclear.com/great-speeches/creative-thinking-by-claude-shannon  The Bottom Line - https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/34XxbRFe54FycoCDw/the-bottom-line 

This is part 1 of a new series on Mental Models - tips, tricks, and tools to add to your mental toolbox. In this episode we introduce the concept of a mental model but then quickly dive in to explanations of the most powerful models we've encountered. Join us and learn how to make better decisions (or know when a decision is not worth making), how to have more original and impactful ideas (and how to find the most promising ideas to work on out of the thousands you'll soon have), and when tidying up your messy desk is just plain wrong (sorry, Marie Kondo!) --------------- Shownotes: --------------- The Great Mental Models: General Thinking Concepts by Shane Parrish - https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/44245196-the-great-mental-models  Super Thinking: The Big Book of Mental Models by Gabriel Weinberg - https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/41181911-super-thinking  Feynman technique - https://fs.blog/2012/04/feynman-technique/  More Dakka by The Zvi - https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/z8usYeKX7dtTWsEnk/more-dakka  Least recently used idea: read the book Algorithms To Live By by Brian Christian - https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/25666050-algorithms-to-live-by  Eisenhower matrix - https://jamesclear.com/eisenhower-box  Josh Wolfe on Shane Parrish's podcast - https://fs.blog/josh-wolfe/  Eliezer Yudkowsky's marvelous introduction to Bayes Theorem. Seriously, read this: http://yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes  Tim Urban's WaitButWhy post on thinking from first principles like Elon Musk: https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/11/the-cook-and-the-chef-musks-secret-sauce.html  Deep Work by Cal Newport - https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/25744928-deep-work  So Good They Can't Ignore You by Cal Newport - https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/13525945-so-good-they-can-t-ignore-you  Keep Your Identity Small by Paul Graham - http://www.paulgraham.com/identity.html  Joscha Bach on the Singularity podcast: https://www.singularityweblog.com/joscha-bach/

This episode features the much-anticipated conversation with Bronwyn Williams on the topic of Universal Basic Income (UBI). Bronwyn is a futurist and trend analyst with a background in marketing and economics. Gianluca and Jared pick her brain about the economic viability of UBI, the influence of politics and big tech, and the trends in automation that will shape the future of humanity. Regardless of your fiscal intuitions or political leanings, this episode will equip you with the core arguments in the UBI debate and leave you with plenty of food for thought.   -------------- Shownotes: -------------- Write to Bit of a Tangent at podtangent@gmail.com Tweet at Bit of a Tangent: https://twitter.com/podtangent Follow Bit of a Tangent (incl. behind the scenes) on Instagram: www.instagram.com/podtangent Bronwyn Williams on Twitter: https://twitter.com/bronwynwilliams Bronwyn's website: https://whatthefuturenow.com Flux Trends: https://www.fluxtrends.com/ Apollo 42: http://apollo42.com/ Negative income tax: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negative_income_tax Alaskan oil dividend: nhttps://basicincometoday.com/the-complicated-politics-of-the-alaska-permanent-fund-dividend/5422 Andrew Yang and the proposed “Freedom Dividend”: https://www.yang2020.com/policies/the-freedom-dividend/ Andrew Yang's discussions about UBI with Sam Harris: https://samharris.org/podcasts/130-universal-basic-income/ Social credit system in China: https://www.wired.co.uk/article/china-social-credit-system-explained Elon Musk on automation and UBI: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/18/elon-musk-automated-jobs-could-make-ubi-cash-handouts-necessary.html Neuralink's human-brain interface: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lA77zsJ31nA Humanity's increasing prosperity (Steven Pinker): https://youtu.be/o5X2-i_poNU On having a “Venezuela moment”: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crisis_in_Venezuela Single-payer healthcare: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single-payer_healthcare Cost of bringing a drug to market: https://www.forbes.com/sites/matthewherper/2017/10/16/the-cost-of-developing-drugs-is-insane-a-paper-that-argued-otherwise-was-insanely-bad/#2c8eb48d2d45 Swiss referendum on UBI: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36454060 Bronwyn's book reviews: https://whatthefuturenow.com/category/reading-right-now/ The Origins of Totalitarianism by Hannah Arendt: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/396931.The_Origins_of_Totalitarianism Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/11468377-thinking-fast-and-slow The Age of Surveillance Capitalism by Shoshana Zuboff: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/26195941-the-age-of-surveillance-capitalism Death of the Gods by Carl Miller: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/40504262-the-death-of-the-gods?ac=1&from_search=true Ben Hunt on Twitter: https://twitter.com/epsilontheory David Pearce on Twitter: https://twitter.com/webmasterdave Slate Star Codex breakdown of UBI: https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/08/01/squareallworthy-on-ubi-plans/ Bayesian Conspiracy (with David Spearman) on the economics of UBI vs. NIT: http://www.thebayesianconspiracy.com/2019/07/88-ubi-and-other-forms-of-evil-taxes/

This is part 2 of our series on free will! In this episode we reconcile how it is that we can feel like we have free will (even when we don't), give an evolutionary argument for why this might be the case and show how knowing this makes us more compassionate people who are (paradoxically) better at achieving our goals. Along the way, we explain what a Bayesian Network is (and why you should care about yours), and give an introduction to some of the key ideas and concepts in the field of Reinforcement Learning (a subfield of AI) and how we can use these concepts to clarify our view of ourselves and the world! --------------- Shownotes: --------------- Dan Dennett essay on Sam Harris's argument: https://samharris.org/reflections-on-free-will/ Sam Harris's response to Dennett: https://samharris.org/free-will-and-free-will/  Sam Harris's “Free Will: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/13259270-free-will Good primer on the Libet experiments that preempted decision making: https://youtu.be/OjCt-L0Ph5o The original Libet publication [paywalled]: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/6640273 Details of more recent versions of the Libet experiments with 7 second preempting and some predictive capability: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMDuakmEEV4 A recent “debunking” of the Libet results: https://www.pnas.org/content/109/42/e2904 A popular article on the Libet experiments in the light of the new model: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2019/09/free-will-bereitschaftspotential/597736/ Radiolab Loops episode: https://www.wnycstudios.org/podcasts/radiolab/articles/radiolab-loops  Litany of Gendlin on LessWrong: https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Litany_of_Gendlin  Julia Galef on Bayes Nets: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFv5DvrLDCg  Learn Bayes Nets post on LessWrong: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tp4rEtQqRshPavZsr/learn-bayes-nets  Compatibilism: https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/compatibilism/  A good introductory courses on reinforcement learning for those interested: https://www.theschool.ai/courses/move-37-course/  Video of RL agent walking on the back of its legs: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GdTBqBnqhaQ  Sean Carroll's podcast: https://www.preposterousuniverse.com/podcast/  How to Win Friends and Influence Reality (episode 9 of Bit of a Tangent): https://podcasts.apple.com/za/podcast/009-how-to-win-friends-and-influence-reality/id1470855694?i=1000446168718 

This is Part 1 of the series on Free Will. In this episode, Gianluca and Jared dispel the assumption that humans have Free Will by presenting the argument from Determinism—popularised by Sam Harris. They discuss the evidence from physics, neurology, and the famous Libet experiments; before laying the groundwork for later conversations about what this implies morally and societally. You have no choice but to listen. -------- Shownotes: Sam Harris's “Free Will: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/13259270-free-will Ted Chiang's Story of Your Life (and some of his other fantastic shorts): https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/223380.Stories_of_Your_Life_and_Others Arrival, the film adaptation of Story of Your Life: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt2543164 Principle of Least Action: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principle_of_least_action Chaos Theory: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory Good primer on the Libet experiments that preempted decision making: https://youtu.be/OjCt-L0Ph5o The original Libet publication [paywalled]: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/6640273 Details of more recent versions of the Libet experiments with 7 second preempting and some predictive capability: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMDuakmEEV4 A recent “debunking” of the Libet results: https://www.pnas.org/content/109/42/e2904 A popular article on the Libet experiments in the light of the new model: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2019/09/free-will-bereitschaftspotential/597736/ Great CGP Grey video on split brain experiments: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wfYbgdo8e-8 Decent primer on Sperry's split-brain experiments: https://embryo.asu.edu/pages/roger-sperrys-split-brain-experiments-1959-1968 “Behave” by Robert Sopalsky: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/31170723-behave  

Jared and Gianluca try something new on this episode! We read passages from Robert Pirsig's wonderful novel Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance, reacting and discussing as we go! Along the way, we explored the limits of conceptual understanding (a.k.a. Shut up and taste the wine!), how the words we use to describe reality also end up defining it, limiting it or expanding it, and why cliches are so easy to dismiss and when they shouldn't be (hint: your gran was right - there's nothing a good night's sleep won't solve). We also discuss what it means to truly understand something, and how our intuitive sense of what is excellent can guide us to cook great food, write beautiful code, and be delightful people!   As a bonus, we drop some hints about an exciting upcoming episode, and at the end we each share the advice we've heard that has the highest impact with the fewest words!   Listener feedback can be recorded here: https://www.speakpipe.com/podtangent ---------- Shownotes: Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance by Robert Pirsig: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/629.Zen_and_the_Art_of_Motorcycle_Maintenance  The Stranger by Albert Camus: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/49552.The_Stranger  Atlas Shrugged by Ayn Rand: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/662.Atlas_Shrugged  Fountainhead by Ayn Rand: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/2122.The_Fountainhead  The Philosopher's Toolkit by Julian Baggini: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/192414.The_Philosophers_Toolkit  Fermat's Enigma by Simon Singh: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/38412.Fermat_s_Enigma  The Cook & The Chef - Elon Musk's Secret Sauce by Tim Urban: https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/11/the-cook-and-the-chef-musks-secret-sauce.html  How To Win Friends & Influence People by Dale Carnegie: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/4865.How_to_Win_Friends_and_Influence_People  Michael Nielsen's personal blog: http://michaelnielsen.org/  Venture Stories podcast with Michael Nielsen: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/what-michael-nielsen-thinks-about-basically-everything/id1316769266?i=1000436484320  Tyler Cowen on The high-return activity of raising others' aspirations: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2018/10/high-return-activity-raising-others-aspirations.html

We've all heard about the importance of learning. We've all heard about the importance of learning how to learn. Well, on this episode Gianluca and Jared dive into both of these topics. They discuss the philosophies of learning they've encountered on their own journeys, and share several key tricks that they've found most helpful over the years! Along the way they discovered a new way to think about how to keep your knowledge up to date in an ever changing world! Listener feedback can be recorded here: https://www.speakpipe.com/podtangent ---------- Shownotes: This essay by Michael Nielsen is what spurred me to say we might need a follow up. It's definitely worth a read: http://augmentingcognition.com/ltm.html  Cultural evolution primer by Scott Alexander: https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/06/04/book-review-the-secret-of-our-success/  Tim Urban's Elon Musk blog posts: https://waitbutwhy.com/2017/03/elon-musk-post-series.html - the last post in the series changed Jared's life https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/11/the-cook-and-the-chef-musks-secret-sauce.html Poor Charlie's Almanack: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/944652.Poor_Charlie_s_Almanack Shane Parrish on Chauffeur knowledge: https://fs.blog/2015/09/two-types-of-knowledge/ The Sequences by Eliezer Yudkowski: https://www.lesswrong.com/rationality  We've include some relevant essays from the sequences to today's conversation below: Taboo Your Words: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WBdvyyHLdxZSAMmoz/taboo-your-words Cached Thoughts: https://www.lesswrong.com/s/pmHZDpak4NeRLLLCw/p/2MD3NMLBPCqPfnfre Replace The Symbol with The Substance: https://www.lesswrong.com/s/SGB7Y5WERh4skwtnb/p/GKfPL6LQFgB49FEnv Truly Part of You: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fg9fXrHpeaDD6pEPL/truly-part-of-you Living By Your Own Strength: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dKGfNvjGjq4rqffyF/living-by-your-own-strength Learning How to Learn course: https://www.coursera.org/learn/learning-how-to-learn/  Anki: https://apps.ankiweb.net/  r/medicalschoolanki decks: https://www.reddit.com/r/medicalschoolanki/  Jared used https://www.brosencephalon.com/flashcards/ in his earlier years of medschool Testing effect: https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Testing_effect  Deliberate practice: https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Practice_(learning_method)  Desirable difficulty: https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Desirable_difficulty  Method of Loci: https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Method_of_loci  Expecting Short Inferential Distances by Eliezer Yudkowski: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HLqWn5LASfhhArZ7w/expecting-short-inferential-distances  Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid by Douglas Hofstadter: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/24113.G_del_Escher_Bach  Conversations with Tyler podcast: https://conversationswithtyler.com/

This is a discussion about why deep neural nets are unreasonably effective. Gianluca and Jared examine the relationships between neural architectures and the laws of physics that govern our Universe—exploring brains, human language, and linear functions. Nothing could have prepared them for the territories this episode expanded to, so strap yourself in! ---------- Shownotes: AlphaGo beating Lee Sedol at Go: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AlphaGo_versus_Lee_Sedol OpenAI Five: https://openai.com/blog/openai-five/ Taylor series/expansions video from 3Blue1Brown: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3d6DsjIBzJ4 Physicist Max Tegmark: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Max_Tegmark Tegmark's great talk on connections between physics and deep learning (which formed much of the inspiration for this conversation): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5MdSE-N0bxs Universal Approximation Theorem: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_approximation_theorem A refresher on “Map vs. Territory”: https://fs.blog/2015/11/map-and-territory/ Ada Lovelace (who worked on Babbage's Analytical Engine): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ada_Lovelace Manifolds and their topology: http://colah.github.io/posts/2014-03-NN-Manifolds-Topology/ Binary trees: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binary_tree Markov process: http://mathworld.wolfram.com/MarkovProcess.html OpenAIs GPT-2: https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/ Play with GPT-2 in your browser here: https://talktotransformer.com/ Lex Fridman's MIT Artificial Intelligence podcast: https://lexfridman.com/ai/ The Scientific Odyssey podcast: https://thescientificodyssey.libsyn.com/

This week on Bit of A Tangent we discuss the little known but unbelievably important concept of ‘slack' - what it is, why having too little of it can be deadly and how to get more of it! We also discuss the difference between attention and awareness and how can help you live a more engaged life, a simple rule of thumb to know when you're using your time on earth well, and a quick trick to train your mind to dive straight into deep focus when you need to! Lastly, we discuss how we've set up our personal devices to get the most out of them while minimising distractions and as a bonus this episode we mention two other podcasts we're loving at the moment!   ---------- Shownotes: Slack and the Sabbath sequence by Zvi on Lesswrong: https://www.lesswrong.com/s/HXkpm9b8o964jbQ89 Main Lesswrong post on ‘slack': https://www.lesswrong.com/s/HXkpm9b8o964jbQ89/p/yLLkWMDbC9ZNKbjDG Farnam Street Mental models: https://fs.blog/mental-models/  Lying by Sam Harris: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/18869177-lying  Jared's essay on Algorithms: https://jaredtumiel.github.io/2019-08-11-use-algorithms/  Digital Minimalism by Cal Newport: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/40672036-digital-minimalism?ac=1&from_search=true  The Mind Illuminated by Culadasa: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/25942786-the-mind-illuminated?ac=1&from_search=true  Naval Ravikant's tweetstorm (some ideas mentioned definitely came from here): https://twitter.com/naval/status/1002103360646823936  Deep work by Cal Newport:: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/25744928-deep-work?ac=1&from_search=true  Stayfocused (android app): https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.stayfocused&hl=en_US  StayFocusd - chrome website blocker:  https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/stayfocusd/laankejkbhbdhmipfmgcngdelahlfoji  David Epstein – Wide or Deep? - [Invest Like the Best, EP.133]https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/david-epstein-wide-or-deep-invest-like-the-best-ep-133/id1154105909?i=1000439925357  Good One: A Podcast About Jokes: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1203393721 

A deep-dive into the Flow state. Gianluca and Jared discuss the physiology and psychology of being in “the zone,” and the decades of research behind this state of optimal cognitive and physical performance. They also trade hypotheses about how and why the Flow state may have evolved, using the model of cultural evolution within hunter-gatherer tribes.  ---------- Shownotes: Flow psychology: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flow_(psychology) 6 components of Flow: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flow_(psychology)#Components Free soloing (a perfect example of a high-risk flow activity): https://www.imdb.com/title/tt7775622/ Anders Ericsson's 10,000-hour theory: https://www.businessinsider.co.za/anders-ericsson-how-to-become-an-expert-at-anything-2016-6 [We couldn't find the quote about abusing a tool] Shower thoughts: https://www.reddit.com/r/Showerthoughts/ Origins of the term “silver bullet”: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_Silver_Bullet An article discussing the McKinsey study on flow: https://hbr.org/2014/05/create-a-work-environment-that-fosters-flow A brief primer on adrenaline, cortisol, and stress responses: https://www.livestrong.com/article/207432-adrenaline-cortisol/ Big 5 personality traits: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits Neuroticism and Flow: Csikszentmihalyi's Flow Model: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Challenge_vs_skill.svg Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi (the Father of Flow): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mihaly_Csikszentmihalyi Carl Jung: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_Jung Flow state and life satisfaction: https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/beautiful-minds/201111/who-enters-flow Hedonic adaptation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hedonic_treadmill The exploitation of Flow states in video game design: https://medium.com/@raydaz/the-applications-relevance-of-flow-state-design-in-video-games-1572dac0d2c Scott Alexander's SlateStarCodex post which inspired Gianluca's “PhD Hunter” idea: https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/06/04/book-review-the-secret-of-our-success/ Nobody on earth can build a pencil from scratch: http://freakonomics.com/podcast/i-pencil/

This episode looks at how to disrupt social dynamics. Gianluca and Jared consider the properties of social modes and narratives, examine Don Hoffman's theory of fictitious reality and its evolutionary origins, and discuss ways to overcome your social limits through psychological hacks like self-characterisation and frame shifting.  ---------- Shownotes: The Seven Basic Plots: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Seven_Basic_Plots The Hero's Journey: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hero%27s_journey The Map is Not The Territory: https://fs.blog/2015/11/map-and-territory/ Sam Harris on the Illusion of Free Will: https://samharris.org/the-illusion-of-free-will/ Carl Sagan (a classical rationalist): https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/The_Dragon_in_My_Garage Mandatory Eliezer Yudkowsky link: https://www.lesswrong.com/users/eliezer_yudkowsky The Map is Not the Territory (on LessWrong.com): https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/The_map_is_not_the_territory The “Infinite” Coastline Paradox: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coastline_paradox Mental models: https://fs.blog/mental-models/ Intuitive (naïve) physics: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Na%C3%AFve_physics Human's bias towards negative thoughts and emotions: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negativity_bias Don Hoffman—Reality Isn't—on the After On podcast: https://after-on.com/episodes/026 Friston's Free Energy Principle: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_energy_principle Frame shift video with Tyrion (from Charisma on Command): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6NQiHtbpa8s Derren Brown: http://derrenbrown.co.uk/derren/ Derren's interview on the Sam Harris podcast: https://samharris.org/podcasts/143-keys-mind/ Lying by Sam Harris (our favourite essay/book on honesty): https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/18869177-lying The episode where we deep-dive on lying: https://www.podtangent.com/e/001-you-don-t-want-to-be-the-people-in-friends/ Information asymmetry: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Information_asymmetry ---------- Corrections: Derren Brown was on the Sam Harris podcast, not the Tim Ferriss Show. See link above.

In this episode, Jared and Gianluca throw caution to the wind and discuss their most controversial topic yet: what they think might be the best way to exercise! Specifically, they summarise the thesis behind the book ‘Body By Science' by John Little and Doug McGuff and reveal their own workout routines. Along the way they also explore the field of evolutionary programming and genetic algorithms (hint: Gianluca just published his research paper on the topic!) and what these techniques could bring to the design of complex structures and systems! ----------------------- SHOWNOTES: Gianluca's research paper - “Warfarin dose estimation on multiple datasets with automated hyperparameter optimisation and a novel software framework”: https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.05363  Genetic programming/evolutionary algorithms: http://www.cs.montana.edu/~bwall/cs580/introduction_to_gp.pdf  Evolved wind-turbines: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZUNRmwoijw  Random walk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=stgYW6M5o4k  Monte Carlo simulation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t0F3S-46bIQ  Robin Hanson book - “The Elephant in The Brain”: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/28820444-the-elephant-in-the-brain Robin Hanson blog on signalling: http://www.overcomingbias.com/tag/signaling  Julia Galef's podcast, “Rationally Speaking”: http://rationallyspeakingpodcast.org/  The halo effect: https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Halo_effect  Body by Science: A Research-Based Program for Strength Training, Body Building, and Complete Fitness in 12 Minutes a Week by John Little, Doug McGuff: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/4642174-body-by-science  A podcast by Tim Ferriss on the so-called “1-minute workout”: https://tim.blog/2017/01/23/the-one-minute-workout-designed-by-scientists-dr-martin-gibala/  Elon Musk on the Joe Rogan Experience: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycPr5-27vSI  Via negativa thinking (and other mental models) at Farnam Street Blog: https://fs.blog/mental-models/  Lateral shoulder raises tutorial: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5sNYB1Q6aM  Dr Rhonda Patrick on sauna use and heat: https://www.foundmyfitness.com/episodes/biohacker-summit-2016  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NChyDtupmkk

In this episode, Jared and Gianluca introduce the fundamentals of Game Theory; before examining the AI alignment problem, civilisational inadequacy, and Moloch—the mythical characterisation of all things suboptimal. This episode makes heavy reference to an article called "Meditations on Moloch", from Scott Alexander's SlateStarCodex blog. We highly recommend it. ---------- Shownotes: SlateStarCodex article on Moloch : https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/07/30/meditations-on-moloch/ Background on the myth of Moloch : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moloch Alan Ginsberg's poem on Moloch : https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/49303/howl Game Theory : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_theory Prisoner's Dilemma : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner%27s_dilemma Tragedy of the Commons : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons Bostrom's Vulnerable World Hypothesis : https://nickbostrom.com/papers/vulnerable.pdf The AI Alignment Problem : https://intelligence.org/stanford-talk/ Stanislav Petrov, the Russian who prevented a nuclear war : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov

Gianluca and Jared are joined by crypto expert Thomas Tumiel in a discussion about the details of Facebook's new Libra cryptocurrency. They give a brief primer on the fundamentals of blockchains and cryptography, examine how Libra is implemented (compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum), discuss Facebook's strategy for rollout, consider possible failure modes, and contrast the dystopian and utopian outcomes of a truly global cryptocurrency.   ---------- Shownotes: Mined For Change: https://minedforchange.org/ AI and Crypto Soc: https://www.facebook.com/UCTCryptoSoc/ Libra announcement: https://libra.org/en-US/ Early rumours about Libra: https://www.theverge.com/2018/5/8/17332894/facebook-blockchain-group-employee-reshuffle-restructure-david-marcus-kevin-weil and https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-21/facebook-is-said-to-develop-stablecoin-for-whatsapp-transfers Facebook crypto job postings: https://www.coindesk.com/facebook-is-hiring-5-new-staff-members-for-its-blockchain-team Intro to Blockchain (from 3blue1brown): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bBC-nXj3Ng4 “How does the blockchain work” by D'Aliessi on Medium: https://medium.com/blockchain-review/how-does-the-blockchain-work-for-dummies-explained-simply-9f94d386e093 Hash functions: https://medium.com/@isuruj/introduction-to-hashing-5b4daf343889 and https://blockgeeks.com/guides/what-is-hashing/ Merkle Trees: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merkle_tree Transaction times across different blockchains: https://medium.com/@johnhinkle_80891/the-fastest-cryptocurrency-transaction-speeds-for-2018-498c1baf87ef Libra technical whitepaper: https://developers.libra.org/docs/assets/papers/the-libra-blockchain.pdf Smart contracts (e.g. on Ethereum): https://blockgeeks.com/guides/smart-contracts/ “On the blockchain, nobody knows you're a fridge” —Richard Gendal Brown: https://gendal.me/about/ Gas prices: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gas-ethereum.asp Cloud computing on the blockchain vs. with cloud service providers (AWS, Google, etc.): https://medium.com/@eternacapital/blockchain-based-decentralised-cloud-computing-277f307611e1 Facebook (instagram + whatsapp) daily active users: https://www.statista.com/statistics/272014/global-social-networks-ranked-by-number-of-users/ Superforecasting by Phillip Tetlock: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/23995360-superforecasting Prediction markets: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market Eliezer Yudkowsky and Civilisational Inadequacy: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zsG9yKcriht2doRhM/inadequacy-and-modesty Efficient markets: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/efficientmarkethypothesis.asp Shorting the market: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortselling.asp WeChat and its ubiquity in China: https://www.theverge.com/2018/2/1/16721230/wechat-china-app-mini-programs-messaging-electronic-id-system “Critical Vulnerability” pull request: https://cryptonews.com/news/cryptoverse-reached-level-9000-in-trolling-facebook-and-libr-4071.htm

Gianluca outlines his new Habit Formation Framework and future habit-related projects, Jared discusses his heuristics and hacks for a good day, and they both examine the consequences of sleep deprivation—especially on (medical) students. ---------- Shownotes: “Atomic Habits” by James Clear : www.goodreads.com/book/show/40121378-atomic-habits Loving Kindness meditation : https://www.headspace.com/meditation/compassion Oak meditation/breathing app : https://www.oakmeditation.com/ ASMR : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_sensory_meridian_response Five-minute favour : https://www.forbes.com/sites/kareanderson/2013/07/17/pay-it-forward-with-the-five-minute-favor/#74088b596f5d 80000 Hours mega-article on how to be successful in any career : https://80000hours.org/career-guide/how-to-be-successful Art of Manliness episode on storytelling : https://www.artofmanliness.com/articles/how-to-tell-better-stories/ “Eat That Frog” by Brian Tracy : https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/95887.Eat_That_Frog_ Oura Ring : https://ouraring.com “Why We Sleep” by Matthew Walker, PhD : https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/34466963-why-we-sleep Matthew Walker on Joe Rogan : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwaWilO_Pig Matthew Walker on FoundMyFitness (with Dr. Rhonda Patrick) : https://www.foundmyfitness.com/episodes/matthew-walker W.S. Halstead, the founder of the residency programme (and a drug addict) : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Stewart_Halsted Neal Stephenson, a legendary Sci-fi author : https://www.goodreads.com/author/show/545.Neal_Stephenson The Story Collider Podcast : https://www.storycollider.org/podcasts No Such Thing As A Fish : https://audioboom.com/channel/nosuchthingasafish The Wikicast : https://thewikicast.podbean.com/

Gianluca and Jared speak about absurdism, existentialism, and an antidote to becoming bored with the world. They then think out loud about direction versus random walks as well as their visions for the long term future of humanity and how to even think about these kinds of massive questions. They also touch on attention and what it would mean to use it well, all things considered, some of the basics of Transhumanism, and what single thing each of us would wish for to give humanity its best chance at thriving! ---------- Shownotes: Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy - Absurdism: https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/camus/ Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy - Existentialism: https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/existentialism/ Some great videos from The School of Life about Existentialism: ‘Philosophy - Sartre': https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3bQsZxDQgzU and ‘Existentialism and Dating': https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AcniOW0wc5k  Kurt Vonnegut books: ‘Slaughterhouse Five': https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/4981.Slaughterhouse_Five and ‘Breakfast of Champions': https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/4980.Breakfast_of_Champions Bonus: Jared's favourite article introducing a key concept related to Transhumanism: https://waitbutwhy.com/2016/03/cryonics.html 80 000 Hours on why we should value the long term future: https://80000hours.org/articles/future-generations/ as well as a podcast episode (from the 80 000 Hours podcast) on a similar topic: https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/why-the-long-run-future-matters-more-than-anything-else-and-what-we-should-do-about-it/ and a strong argument for thinking about existential risk: https://80000hours.org/articles/extinction-risk/  Book ‘The Art of Doing Science and Engineering': https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/530415.The_Art_of_Doing_Science_and_Engineering ‘The Last Question', a short story by Isaac Asimov: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/4808763-the-last-question P.S. a great reading can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ojEq-tTjcc0 ‘Do Spoilers Change a Person's Enjoyment of a Television Show?' https://digital.usfsp.edu/masterstheses/166/ and ‘Story Spoilers Don't Spoil Stories' https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956797611417007?journalCode=pssa - two studies suggesting maybe spoilers aren't as bad as we think? (that being said, don't try me - Jared) Jared's current favourite explanation of the Buddhist concept of ‘emptiness' comes from this book: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/32895535-why-buddhism-is-true A great, short video explaining some aspects of the Fermi Paradox: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNhhvQGsMEc (part 1), https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1fQkVqno-uI (part 2) and a bonus on the Great Filter hypothesis: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UjtOGPJ0URM 

Gianluca and Jared record their first face-to-face episode! They think out loud about how to deduce germ theory as a hunter gatherer, why having interesting conversations is about making people interesting, not meeting interesting people, and finally speculate about why we might have a sense of self and whether it's outlived its usefulness!   Shownotes: The (minimal) effects of creatine on cognitive performance : https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21118604 and https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00213-005-0269-z  Tim Ferriss on morning routines : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHAyE0UC5I4 All the evidence for the efficacy and safety of creatine supplementation : https://examine.com/supplements/creatine/  Sam Harris' guide to meditation : https://samharris.org/how-to-meditate/ Dr. Satchin Panda on Practical Implementation of Time-Restricted Eating (from FoundMyFitness podcast with Dr. Rhonda Patrick) : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iywhaz5z0qs Germ Theory (of disease) : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germ_theory_of_disease Lactase Persistence : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lactase_persistence Sonder, from Dictionary of Obscure Sorrows : https://www.dictionaryofobscuresorrows.com/post/23536922667/sonder  Robert Wright's “Why Buddhism is True” : https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/32895535-why-buddhism-is-true?from_search=true Synaesthesia : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synesthesia The superior verbal memory span of Mandarin speakers due to faster rehearsal : https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5880866/ Albert Camus : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert_Camus “Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality” by Eliezer Yudkowsky : http://www.hpmor.com/ “Surely You're Joking, Mr. Feynman!”, a great biography of the brilliant Richard Feynman : https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/35167685-surely-you-re-joking-mr-feynman  Jocko Willink (podcast) : http://jockopodcast.com/ Sam Harris (podcast) : https://samharris.org/ Steelmanning (with Sam Harris and Jordan B. Peterson) : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uh-DKbKlfag

Jared and Gianluca compare notes on their favourite productivity strategies and mindfulness techniques. They also explore the rhetorical bias of wisdom and the rationalist interpretation of cached thoughts; before making ill-advised attempts at explaining the nebulous concepts of "Idea Space" and "Short Inferential Distances".   Shownotes: ‘Getting Things Done' book: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/1633.Getting_Things_Done?from_search=true   ‘Eat That Frog' book: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/95887.Eat_That_Frog_ Prediction Markets: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market Read more about becoming an expert predictor with the ‘Superforecasting' book: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/23995360-superforecasting?ac=1&from_search=true HighExistence website: https://highexistence.com/ and 30 day challenge: https://jimmanueljoseph.wordpress.com/2016/09/02/30-challenges-to-enlightenment-high-existence/  Book ‘Algorithms To Live By' on using computer science to make decisions: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/25666050-algorithms-to-live-by  LessWrong post on “Cached Thoughts”,. We also talk about ‘cached replies' a bit later in the podcast: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2MD3NMLBPCqPfnfre/cached-thoughts The idea of ‘research debt' and translating ideas: https://distill.pub/2017/research-debt/ Book ‘Elements of Eloquence': https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/17415726-the-elements-of-eloquence Book on habits and identity, ‘Atomic Habits': https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/40121378-atomic-habits LessWrong post on ‘Expecting Short Inferential Distances': https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HLqWn5LASfhhArZ7w/expecting-short-inferential-distances

Jared and Gianluca dive into the ethics of lying and the effects of trying really hard not to, as well as some of the concepts and thoughts which changed the course of their lives. They also discuss religion, Santa and whether you only have a limited window to overcome limiting beliefs. Shownotes: The book in which Sam Harris talks about the difference between LSD and meditation : https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/18774981-waking-up Eliezer Yudkowsky's essay “Crisis of Faith” : https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BcYBfG8KomcpcxkEg/crisis-of-faith A good primer on Belief in Belief : https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CqyJzDZWvGhhFJ7dY/belief-in-belief Robert Sopalsky's book “Behave: The Biology of Humans at Our Best and Worst” : https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/31170723-behave Christopher Hitchens' powerful monologue : https://youtu.be/MQox1hQrABQ “Lying” by Sam Harris : https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/18869177-lying “Waking Up” by Sam Harris : https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/18774981-waking-up Douglas Harding's “On Having No Head: Zen and the Rediscovery of the Obvious” : https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/817501.On_Having_No_HeadEliezer Yudkowsky, the rational voice in our heads : https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky