Podcasts about thinking in bets

Annie Duke is an author, speaker, and consultant in the decision-making space, as well as Special Partner focused on Decision Science at First Round Capital Partners. Annie's is the bestselling author of multiple books, most notably Thinking In Bets and Quit. Annie was previously a championship winning poker player, having amassed over $4 million in tournament winnings, won a World Series of Poker Bracelet, and having won the World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions. As if that wasn't enough, Annie also completed her PhD in Cognitive Psychology at UPenn in 2023. Annie joined host Robert Glazer on the Elevate Podcast to discuss learnings from her poker career, how to think in bets, and the importance of knowing when to quit. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode, Emily explains the key concepts from Annie Duke's book "Thinking in Bets", which emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between decisions and outcomes for Chiefs of Staff and other leaders. She shares examples like Pete Carroll's controversial Super Bowl play call and a golfer's swing to illustrate the roles of skill and luck in decision-making. Emily also discusses how our self-narratives and biases can hinder clear thinking, and provides a list of questions to ask ourselves to make better decisions.Links Mentioned:Clarity Call with EmilyThinking in Bets BookFree Resources:Strategic Planning Checklist Chief of Staff Skills Assessment ChecklistA Day in the Life of a Chief of StaffChief of Staff ToolkitGet in touch with Emily:Connect on LinkedInFollow on YouTubeLearn more about coaching Sign up for the newsletterClarity Call with Emily Who Am I?If we haven't yet before - Hi

Former World Series of Poker Champion and best-selling author, Annie Duke, joins Joe to share her journey from studying cognitive science to becoming a poker legend, and how this experience led her to explore the cognitive underpinnings of decision-making in everyday life.Joe and Annie explore the fundamental concepts from her book, Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts, and discuss how treating life's decisions as bets can significantly improve how we navigate uncertainty. Some of the topics they discuss include:The two factors that determine the quality of your lifeUsing poker strategies for making decisionsSeparating outcome quality from decision qualityHow our self-narrative affects reflection and learningThe benefits of mental time travel...and much moreAnnie is an author, speaker, and consultant in the decision-making space, as well as Special Partner focused on Decision Science at First Round Capital Partners, a seed stage venture fund. Annie's latest book, Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away, was released in 2022 from Portfolio, a Penguin Random House imprint. Her previous book, Thinking in Bets, is a national bestseller. As a former professional poker player, she has won more than $4 million in tournament poker. During her career, Annie won a World Series of Poker bracelet and is the only woman to have won the World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions and the NBC National Poker Heads-Up Championship. She retired from the game in 2012. Prior to becoming a professional poker player, Annie was awarded a National Science Foundation Fellowship to study Cognitive Psychology at the University of Pennsylvania. In 2023 Annie completed her PhD in Cognitive Psychology at UPenn.Annie is the co-founder of The Alliance for Decision Education, a non-profit whose mission is to improve lives by empowering students through decision skills education. She is a member of the National Board of After-School All-Stars and the Board of Directors of the Franklin Institute.Special thanks to this week's sponsors!Veteran-founded Adyton. Step into the next generation of equipment management with Log-E by Adyton. Whether you are doing monthly inventories or preparing for deployment, Log-E is your pocket property book, giving real-time visibility into equipment status and mission readiness. Learn more about how Log-E can revolutionize your property tracking process here!My favorite coffee is veteran-owned Alpha Coffee and I've been drinking it every morning since 2020! They make 100% premium arabica coffee. Alpha has donated over 22k bags of coffee to deployed units and they offer a 10% discount for military veterans, first responders, nurses, and teachers! Try their coffee today. Once you taste the Alpha difference, you won't want to drink anything else!  Learn more here.   

In this episode of The Agent of Wealth Podcast, the Bautis Financial team discusses the most recent book assignment in their monthly Book Club, Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke. Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches readers how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result.In this episode, we discuss: Why it's important to think in terms of “bets.”How and why life is more like a game of Poker than it is a game of Chess.What it means to make probabilistic decisions.How to become aware of your trading biases and look for contrarian opinions.What a feedback loop is, and how to utilize it in your decision-making process.And more!Resources:Episode Transcript & Blog | Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts | Bautis Financial: 8 Hillside Ave, Suite LL1 Montclair, New Jersey 07042 (862) 205-5000 | Schedule an Introductory Call

Annie Duke is a former professional poker player, a decision-making expert, and a special partner at First Round Capital. She is the author of Thinking in Bets (a national bestseller) and Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away and the co-founder of the Alliance for Decision Education, a nonprofit whose mission is to improve lives by empowering students through decision skills education. In our conversation, we cover:• What Annie learned from the late Daniel Kahneman• The power of pre-mortems and “kill criteria”• The relationship between money and happiness• The power of “mental time travel”• The nominal group technique for better decision quality• How First Round Capital improved their decision-making process• Many tactical decision-making frameworks—Brought to you by:• Vanta—Automate compliance. Simplify security.• UserTesting—Human understanding. Human experiences.• LinkedIn Ads—Reach professionals and drive results for your business—Find the transcript at: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/making-better-decisions-annie-duke—Where to find Annie Duke:• X: https://twitter.com/AnnieDuke• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/annie-duke/• Website: https://www.annieduke.com/• Substack: https://www.annieduke.com/substack/—Where to find Lenny:• Newsletter: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com• X: https://twitter.com/lennysan• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lennyrachitsky/—In this episode, we cover:(00:00) Annie's background(03:53) Lessons from Daniel Kahneman: humility, curiosity, and open-mindedness(09:15) The importance of unconditional love in parenting(15:15) Mental time travel and “nevertheless”(20:06) The extent of improvement possible in decision-making (24:54) Independent brainstorming for better decisions(35:36) Making sure people feel heard(42:41) The “3Ds” framework to make better decisions(44:49) Decision quality(55:46) Improving decision-making at First Round Capital(01:05:05) Using pre-mortems and kill criteria(01:10:15) Making explicit what's implicit(01:10:55) The challenges of quitting and knowing when to walk away(01:19:23) Where to find Annie—Referenced:• Daniel Kahneman, Who Plumbed the Psychology of Economics, Dies at 90: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/27/business/daniel-kahneman-dead.html• Adversarial collaboration: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adversarial_collaboration• Does more money correlate with greater happiness?: https://penntoday.upenn.edu/news/does-more-money-correlate-greater-happiness-Penn-Princeton-research#• Income and emotional well-being: A conflict resolved: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36857342/• Strategic decisions: When can you trust your gut?: https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/strategic-decisions-when-can-you-trust-your-gut• Cass Sunstein on X: https://twitter.com/CassSunstein• Dr. Becky on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/drbeckyatgoodinside• A framework for finding product-market fit | Todd Jackson (First Round Capital): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/a-framework-for-finding-product-market• First Round Capital: https://firstround.com/• Brett Berson on X: https://twitter.com/brettberson• Renegade Partners: https://www.renegadepartners.com/• Renata Quintini on X: https://twitter.com/rquintini• Roseanne Wincek on X: https://twitter.com/imthemusic• Josh Kopelman on X: https://twitter.com/joshk• Bill Trenchard on X: https://twitter.com/btrenchard• Linnea Gandhi on X: https://twitter.com/linneagandhi• Maurice Schweitzer on X: https://twitter.com/me_schweitzer• Problems with premortems: https://sjdm.org/presentations/2021-Poster-Gandhi-Linnea-debiasing-premortem-selfserving~.pdf• Create a Solid Plan on How to Fail Big This Year: https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesfinancecouncil/2020/02/07/create-a-solid-plan-on-how-to-fail-big-this-year/• Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away: https://www.amazon.com/Quit-Power-Knowing-When-Walk/dp/0593422996/• Richard Thaler on X: https://twitter.com/R_Thaler• Stewart Butterfield on X: https://twitter.com/stewart• Glitch: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glitch_(video_game)• How the Founder of Slack & Flickr Turned Colossal Failures into Billion-Dollar Companies: https://medium.com/swlh/how-the-founder-of-slack-flickr-turned-failures-into-million-and-billion-dollar-companies-7bcaf0d35d66• The Most Fascinating Profile You'll Ever Read About a Guy and His Boring Startup: https://www.wired.com/2014/08/the-most-fascinating-profile-youll-ever-read-about-a-guy-and-his-boring-startup/• The Alliance for Decision Education: https://alliancefordecisioneducation.org/• Make Better Decisions course on Maven: https://maven.com/annie-duke/make-better-decisions—Production and marketing by https://penname.co/. For inquiries about sponsoring the podcast, email podcast@lennyrachitsky.com.—Lenny may be an investor in the companies discussed. Get full access to Lenny's Newsletter at www.lennysnewsletter.com/subscribe

Dr. Annie Duke is a former professional poker player, an author, speaker, and consultant in the decision-making space. She is the author of the national bestseller, Thinking in Bets, and, the topic of today's interview, 2022's Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away. “Quitting's for the weak” reverberates through today's culture. Of course, quitting just because something is hard is not a good idea. However, we don't tend to evaluate whether what we spend our time on is worth “buckling down” for. We highlight the journey, not the destination when it's really the destination that we should be focused on. In our last episode (116), with Dr. Adam Alter, we mentioned Dr. Angela Duckworth's Grit and Dr. Annie Duke's Quit. Having already dived into Dr. Duckworth's work with her in episode 21, I wanted to hear what might initially seem like a conflicting view.Topics:Is quitting a counterargument or a compliment to grit? Strategies for assessing when to quit"Explore and exploit" mindset: how does that connect to quit and grit?How to apply exploring/exploiting seasons in life"What books have had an impact on you?""What advice do you have for teenagers?"Bio:Annie loves to dive deep into decision-making under uncertainty. Her latest obsession is on the topic of quitting. In particular, she is on a mission to rehabilitate the term and get people to be proud of walking away from things. Annie is an author, speaker, and consultant in the decision-making space, as well as Special Partner focused on Decision Science at First Round Capital Partners, a seed stage venture fund. Annie's latest book, Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away, was released in 2022 from Portfolio, a Penguin Random House imprint. Her previous book, Thinking in Bets, is a national bestseller. As a former professional poker player, she has won more than $4 million in tournament poker. During her career, Annie won a World Series of Poker bracelet and is the only woman to have won the World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions and the NBC National Poker Heads-Up Championship. She retired from the game in 2012. Prior to becoming a professional poker player, Annie was awarded a National Science Foundation Fellowship to study Cognitive Psychology at the University of Pennsylvania. In 2023 Annie completed her PhD in Cognitive Psychology at UPenn. Annie is the co-founder of The Alliance for Decision Education, a non-profit whose mission is to improve lives by empowering students through decision skills education. She is a member of the National Board of After-School All-Stars and the Board of Directors of the Franklin Institute. Socials! -Lessons from Interesting People substack: https://taylorbledsoe.substack.com/Website: https://www.aimingforthemoon.com/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/aiming4moon/Twitter: https://twitter.com/Aiming4MoonFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/aiming4moonTaylor's Blog: https://www.taylorgbledsoe.com/

In this podcast episode, the hosts discuss the book "Thinking in Bets" by Annie Duke. They introduce the book and its author, highlighting Duke's background as a professional poker player and her expertise in decision strategy. The hosts then share their initial impressions of the book, with one host mentioning how it changed their perspective on decision-making as a form of betting. They discuss the concept of resulting and how it can impact decision-making, as well as the importance of evaluating the process rather than just the outcome. The hosts also discuss the value of uncertainty and the need to embrace it in decision-making. They mention various cognitive biases discussed in the book, such as loss aversion and temporal discounting, and how they can impact decision-making. The hosts share examples of decisions they have made differently since reading the book, such as changing morning routines and being more aware of biases in client interactions. They also discuss the value of having a diverse group of perspectives to challenge biases and improve decision-making. The hosts conclude by discussing the overall value of the book and its applicability to various aspects of life.

Decision strategist, professional poker champion and author Annie Duke joins Michael to discuss her life, career, and book "Thinking In Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts." Original air date: 09 February 2018. The book was published on 6 February 2018.

A Presentation on Core based on a presentation of the game of poker as a training ground for life from Daniel Bedö and an open conversation after that, looking at human relating, dating and love, and especially using economic and game theory models for life. The video mentioned in the conversation with Jonathan Pageau, Jordan Peterson and Douglas Murray is here: https://youtu.be/4Modzh94MVw?si=mHqdGepWRVtIZCx7 ******************************************************************** Read more about Maniphesto: ►https://maniphesto.com/about Take our free men's life assessment: ►https://maniphesto.com/ Join an online men's group with Maniphesto Core: ►https://maniphesto.com/core-member/ Find us on your preferred platform: ►https://linktr.ee/maniphesto

Ryan Findley is a strategist, product leader, designer (product & learning experience), and lifelong educator. He is currently the Chief Learning Strategist at Learn to Win, a learning platform focused on delivering more actionable and focused-learning experiences. In this discussion we touch on Ryan's time leading learning programs in Africa and what technology can do to improve learning outcomes. Checkout these book recommendations from the episode:Thinking In Bets by Annie Duke What's Our Problem?: A Self-Help Book for Societies by Tim UrbanReach out to Ryan on LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/ryanfindleyWant more tips on effective training? Sign-up for our weekly newsletter, Making Better: https://www.bettereverydaystudios.com/newsletterVisit us at https://www.bettereverydaystudios.com

“Just realize every decision you make is a prediction and act like it - figure out what it is implicitly predicting and make that explicit.” Annie Duke is an author and a consultant in the decision making space, as well as a former professional poker player. Annie is the only woman to have won the World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions and the NBC National Poker Heads Up Championship. Prior to becoming a professional poker player, Annie was awarded a National Science Foundation Fellowship to study cognitive psychology at the University of Pennsylvania. Annie is the co-founder of the Alliance for Decision Education, a nonprofit whose mission is to improve lives by empowering students through decision skills education. My discussion with Annie focuses on her recent book, “How to Decide, Simple Tools for Making Better Choices.“ But Annie is not exactly a P&G Alumni, so what's the deal? Alongside our partners at P&G, we're thrilled to share another episode of P&G's “More Than Soap” podcast - available exclusively each week to P&G Employees at GetMoreThanSoap.com. On “More Than Soap,” P&G shares weekly conversations with Inspiring guests, unique perspectives, and unconventional ideas. “More Than Soap” is P&G's official internal podcast - available to all 100,000 P&G employees worldwide, and hosted by Dorion Positano, P&G's Director of New Business and Content Innovation and AI Integration Strategy. Interested in learning more about P&G's “More Than Soap” podcast, or P&G Studios, can reach out directly to Dorion on LinkedIn. GetMoreThanSoap.com

Annie is a formal professional poker player turned author, speaker, and consultant in the decision-making space. Annie discusses how coaches can frame and evaluate their decisions based on probability. She gives us tools to make the best decision with the information on hand. Get the Podcast Notes and Subscribe to Our Weekly Newsletter https://www.tocculture.com Take your personal coaching development to the next level with the TOC Coaching and Culture Certification Course The right way to hold your athletes accountable to high standards- Online Course

This episode of Books for Men is a short recap of all the episodes from July '23. There were two works of fiction and two editions of From the Vault. It's also the one-year anniversary of the show—woohoo—so I share some high-level thoughts about the podcast. Listen for more!If you enjoyed this episode, please consider supporting the podcast. Any of the three things below will help provide awareness for the initiative—inspiring (more) men to read and bringing together men who do. (Ladies, of course, you're always welcome!)Share with a friend or on social mediaSubscribe or follow on your favorite podcast platformLeave a rating or reviewVisit BooksforMen.org to sign up for the Books for Men newsletter, a monthly round-up of every episode with full book and author info, all the best quotes, and newsletter-only book recommendations!

How do you know if you have spotted a good idea? In this episode, I chat with the CEO and Founder of Mobilo, a smart business card about evaluating pain points and how to be decisive in your product roadmap. Connect with Pieter Learn more about Mobilo --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thewayofproductdesign/message

Tyson E Franklin and Carly O'Donoghue give this book a big thumbs up, but they agree it is not for the faint-hearted or someone wanting a feel-good read. Your brain has to do some heavy lifting. This book is available from Amazon - https://amzn.to/421AXQB. Annie Duke was a world-class professional poker player, and in this book, she explains that your thinking and decision-making process is far more critical than the outcome of the decision. A wrong decision resulting in a good outcome does not make the original decision any better, and vice versa; a good decision resulting in a less than favourable outcome does not mean your initial decision was terrible, especially if the decision was made using all the available information at the time. Episode Sponsor: Podiatry Clinic Websites - https://www.podiatryclinicwebsites.com/ NEXT EVENT: Work Smarter, Not Harder - https://www.tysonfranklin.com/events/WSNH2023

Today, we talk about poker star Annie Duke's book on decision making. As founders, we often look at the world through rose colored glasses. Today we talk about ways to be realistic, limit failure and increase our chance of success. You can find Annie Duke's book on Amazon: https://www.amazon.ca/Thinking-Bets-Making-Smarter-Decisions/dp/0735216355/ref=asc_df_0735216355/ This is episode 74

Annie Duke is a former poker player and author. She holds a World Series of Poker (WSOP) gold bracelet from 2004 and at one point won more money in WSOP history than any other female. She is still in the top four as of September 2021, despite being retired from poker, last cashing at a tournament 2010. She is the author of three phenomenal books Thinking In Bets, How To Decide, and Quit. In this conversation, we spoke about how Annie got into poker, how to decide whether to quit a job or relationship, and what she learned from Erik Seidel. (0:00) Intro (3:13) Getting Into Poker (19:59) Visual Memory (22:00) Annie's Poker Mentor (27:21) Breaking Down Decision Making (30:43 Dr. Olstyn Martinez (39:39) Maintaining Identity (44:11) Deciding In Advance (48:56) Quitting A Relationship Or Job (53:30) What Does Annie Want People To Take Away? (59:20) Challenge Annie's Links Twitter: https://twitter.com/AnnieDuke Thinking In Bets by Annie Duke: https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Bets-Making-Smarter-Decisions/dp/0735216355 How To Decide by Annie Duke: https://www.amazon.com/How-Decide-Simple-Making-Choices/dp/B088P4XLVB Quit by Annie Duke: https://www.amazon.com/Quit-Power-Knowing-When-Walk/dp/0593422996 My Links Thinking In Bets Notes – https://dannymiranda.com/thinking-in-bets-notes-summary/ ✉️ Newsletter: https://dannymiranda.substack.com

Welcome to a new year! We launch 2023 with a book about making good decisions! You should make the good decision to listen to it. Or we will make the good decision to cry. Also, Kellen has beef with Canada and Dave poses his favorite story problem.*TheBookPilePodcast@gmail.com*Kellen Erskine has appeared on Conan, Comedy Central, Jimmy Kimmel Live!, NBC's America's Got Talent, and the Amazon Original Series Inside Jokes. He has garnered over 100 million views with his clips on Dry Bar Comedy. In 2018 he was selected to perform on the “New Faces” showcase at the Just For Laughs Comedy Festival in Montreal, Quebec. Kellen was named one of TBS's Top Ten Comics to Watch in 2017. He currently tours the country www.KellenErskine.com*David Vance's videos have garnered over 1 billion views. He has written viral ads for companies like Squatty Potty, Chatbooks, and Lumē, and sketches for the comedy show Studio C. His work has received two Webby Awards, and appeared on Conan. He currently works as a writer on the sitcom Freelancers.

Winners Never Quit? It's an overused cliche that winners never quit, and quitters never win. The only problem with that, of course, is that it oversimplifies the reality of the world we live and lead in. So much of what we do as leaders of projects and teams is to make decisions. And could it be our inability to quit a project, a vendor, a tool, or a team member--could it be that even our career is being hindered because we're persisting instead of quitting? In this episode, I'm joined by one of my favorite voices on decision-making. Annie Duke is the author of a new book entitled Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away. You may know of Annie because of her previous books on decision-making, such as Thinking In Bets. In this episode, we're going to discuss something that wasn't elaborated on in her earlier books. We're going to talk about quitting--and, assuming you keep listening--you don't quit--you're going to walk away with some practical ideas that you can start using this week. Learn more about Annie and her book at AnnieDuke.com/.   Do You Have a High School or College Age Student in Your Family? If so, check out our e-learning program entitled Getting Stuff Done: Project Management for Students. It provides practical skills to reduce the stress of their school work and help jumpstart their career. Learn more and get access at https://i-leadonline.com/GettingStuffDone. Thank you for joining me for this episode of The People and Projects Podcast! Talent Triangle: Power Skills   The following music was used for this episode: Music: The Gigantic Epic Day After Tomorrow by Sascha Ende Free download: https://filmmusic.io/song/413-the-gigantic-epic-day-after-tomorrow License (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-license Artist website: Music: Road Trip by Frank Schroeter Free download: https://filmmusic.io/song/9761-road-trip License (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-license Artist on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/frank.schroeter.52 “Rudy (4/8) Movie CLIP - Fortune's Truth (1993) HD” On YouTube at YouTube.com/watch?v=Qoh3YkxuwVo “Jerry Maguire (2/8) Movie CLIP - Who's Coming With Me? (1996) HD” On YouTube at YouTube.com/watch?v=6ZZI6-zh0GM

Michael talks with world poker champion and bestselling author Annie Duke about her book "How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices." Original air date 16 October 2020. The book was published on 13 October 2022.

I wasn't sure that I would enjoy the book Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All The Facts because its author is a former poker champion and trust me, I am not good at poker. I was pleasantly surprised. Duke tells us that to deal with uncertainty, acknowledge the uncertainty and then rely on a good process to help guide you through the decision. The ultimate outcome may still not be what we want or expect but knowing that we thought the situation through gives us confidence that we were on the right track.   She reminds us that it is easy to be a Monday morning quarterback. How many times have you rated someone else's performance after you know they failed? Would you have rated the person differently if you understood the thinking behind that person's decision?   Duke also tells us to stop blaming bad luck when things don't go our way. If we step back and look at our process, how did that play into the negative outcome? What I most appreciated was that Duke reminds us that it is OK to say, “I don't know”. Too often we are afraid to say that we don't know the answer to a question – especially in a business situation.   Duke offers a unique perspective on decision-making and Thinking in Bets is a great and interesting read.

She mastered the skill of quitting to achieve greater success. Bestselling author Annie Duke joins Michael with her book "Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away." Original air date 18 October 2022. The book was published on 4 October 2022.

Annie Duke is an author, speaker, and decision-making consultant. As a former professional poker player, she won more than $4 million in tournament poker, and a World Series of Poker bracelet. Annie discusses decision-making under uncertainty, and her newest book, “Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away.”

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU'LL LEARN:12:49 - How Annie Duke got sick, quit academia, & became a professional poker player.18:24 - How poker taught her to “embrace uncertainty” & recognize the limits of what we know.27:26 - How a legendary poker champion taught her to think more rationally about luck & loss.37:45 - Why it's important to think probabilistically—and how to strengthen this skill.41:49 - How Annie helped a venture capital firm to improve its decision-making process.44:54 - What skills & insights can be transferred from the game of poker to the game of investing.51:36 - Why Annie never owned Bitcoin or NFTs.55:13 - How to develop “kill criteria” that will help you decide when to sell an investment.1:00:31 - Why we tend to make terrible investment decisions when we're losing money. 1:06:29 - How to think rationally about whether to quit your job.1:12:11 - How our sense of identity & tribalism can wreck our ability to revise our beliefs.1:27:53 - Why Daniel Kahneman has a “quitting coach”—and why you should have one, too.1:42:18 - Why it's invaluable to open your mind to other people's dissenting views.Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.BOOKS AND RESOURCESAnnie Duke's new book, “Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away.” Annie's previous bestsellers, “Thinking in Bets” & “How to Decide”William Green's book, “Richer, Wiser, Happier” – read the reviews of this book.William Green's Twitter.Related Episode: The Mind Of A World Poker Champion W/ Annie Duke - TIP231.NEW TO THE SHOW?Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs.Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here.Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool.Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services.Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets.Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. 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In this episode, Shane shares about lessons learned from a book by Annie Duke and how she shares about how as spectators looking in we don't see the significance of the decision making process involved but only see the outcome and whether we failed or succeeded. He also discusses the significance of having a decision-making framework, the importance of thinking in terms of probabilities, and understanding that there are risks that are just outside of our control     [00:01 - 13:15] Perspectives and Decision Making   Shane shares about a podcast with Andrew Wilkinson and his controversial real estate statements Diving into the book Thinking In Bets by Annie Duke Distinguishing decision making from outcomes and results Asking the right questions revolving around: Understanding the investment Understanding the market and submarket Understanding the demand for it  Understanding the market competition Really understanding the deal before investing  Knowing there are many variables that may affect a deal and being prepared for those incase they happen   [13:16 - 14:11] Closing Segment   If you are interested in my coaching and consulting program, please email me at shane@shanemelanson.com. I want to make sure to cater to those interested, so please use the word “coaching” on the body or subject line.   You can also follow me on Linkedin and Twitter. If you want to go even deeper into the world of commercial real estate, head over to Shane Melanson, a roadmap to investing in commercial real estate! Get my book Club Syndication - How The Wealthy Invest Their Money.   LEAVE A REVIEW + help someone invest in commercial real estate with confidence by sharing this episode or clicking here to listen to our previous episodes.   Follow The Investing Podcast on all Streaming platforms. Deezer, Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, or visit our YouTube Channel.     Tweetable Quote:   “ I think because of the way that there's so many variables going on in the world that we live in right now, there's going to be people that are very smart investors that just get caught and that's just reality. ” - Shane Melanson   Resources mentioned in this episode: Thinking In Bets - Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have all the Facts by Annie Duke

#81: Professional decision-maker, Annie Duke, joins Chris to talk about making better decisions. They discuss why learning the difference between luck and the quality of decisions is so important and how that can improve your life and your career, ways to improve your quitting skills, and what forces work against good quitting behavior. They also cover why so many people struggle with the decision to walk away, how to use kill criteria to determine when to quit a project, a job, or some other endeavor, and a lot more.Annie Duke (@AnnieDuke) is a best-selling author and professional decision strategist. Her 2018 bestseller, Thinking in Bets, has helped countless people make better decisions, and her latest book is Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away.Full show notes at: https://allthehacks.com/decision-making-annie-duke Partner Deals Vuori: 20% off the most comfortable performance apparel I've ever wornBlockFi: Exclusive bonus of up to $250 freeMasterClass: Learn from the world's best with 15% offPacaso: Free early access to listings and $2,500+ in closing credits Selected Links From The EpisodeConnect with Annie Duke: Website | TwitterAnnie Duke's Resources:Books:Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk AwayThinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the FactsHow to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better ChoicesAll the Hacks Podcast: FOMO, FOBO and How To Make Great Decisions with Patrick McGinnisResources Mentioned: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of PredictionInto Thin Air: A Personal Account of the Mt. Everest DisasterGrit: The Power of Passion and PerseveranceAstro Teller on Moonshots for Alphabet's X (Monkeys and pedestals 25:08)Knowns vs Unknowns — Are you building a successful company or just typing? Full Show NotesLearning to distinguish between luck and the quality of your decisions and two ways to improve the quality of decision-making [1:20]Improving the quality of your decisions and increasing the probability of a positive outcome when hiring [5:44]Understanding and learning to calculate the base rate [9:11]Gathering independent viewpoints to improve the quality of your information in both professional and personal situations [13:29]Explicitly permitting others to share their honest opinions and critical feedback [21:08]Understanding how the Sunk Cost Fallacy influences your decision-making and learning to shift your mindset [28:00]Utilizing advanced planning, kill criteria, and stop-loss orders [30:12]Example of the kill criteria [32:02]The importance of having a qualified quitting coach, and what to look for when choosing one [33:24]  Base rates: thinking about everything in life as a bet and making the implicit, explicit [41:49]The side-effects of making things explicit [47:35]Dealing with the emotional angst that comes with decision-making [51:41]Employing the menu decision strategy [54:41]What makes quitting such a difficult decision? [58:31]Astro Teller's mental model: monkeys and pedestals [1:04:55]Figuring out the known unknowns [1:07:01]Where to find Annie Duke online [1:07:57] PartnersVuoriVuori is a new and fresh perspective on performance apparel. Perfect if you are sick and tired of traditional, old workout gear. Everything is designed to work out in, but doesn't look or feel like it. The product is incredibly versatile and can be used for just about any activity like running, training, swimming, yoga; but also great for lounging or weekend errands.To get the most comfortable and versatile clothing on the planet with 20% off your first purchase (plus free shipping on any US order over $75 and free returns) visit allthehacks.com/vuori MasterClassWith MasterClass, you can learn from the world's best minds - anytime, anywhere, and at your own pace. With over 100 classes from a range of world-class instructors like Steph Curry, Richard Branson and Martin Scorsese, that thing you've always wanted to do is way closer than you think. When I signed up a few years ago, I jumped straight into an amazing cooking class by Thomas Keller that has totally leveled up my skills in the kitchen. I also really enjoyed FBI Hostage Negotiator, Chris Voss' class on the art of negotiation.With every class I've taken I'm blown away by the depth of knowledge the instructors have and the quality of the experience. I highly recommend you check it out. Get unlimited access to every MasterClass and 15% off an annual membership at allthehacks.com/masterclass PacasoPacaso is the modern way to buy and own a second home in over 40 world-class destinations. Each home is set up in an LLC, so you can buy as little as 1/8 of the property. And then Pacaso handles everything, from expert interior design to ongoing management, dedicated local support, and equitable, app-based scheduling – making ownership simple and turnkey.To get a free Pacaso Access account, which includes early access to new listings and up to $10,000 in credit towards closing costs, go to allthehacks.com/pacaso BlockFiIf you're interested in Crypto, BlockFi is one of the best ways to get started, letting you easily buy, sell and store your crypto assets. After signing up and linking your bank account, you can instantly trade a variety of cryptocurrencies and store them all in a secure wallet that lets you control and transfer your holdings however you want. You can also set up recurring transfers so you can dollar cost average your crypto investments over time.Or if you want another way to put your crypto investing on autopilot, there's the BlockFi Crypto Rewards Credit Card. While 1.5% cash back isn't the best in the market, that cash back is automatically invested into Bitcoin, Ethereum or whatever cryptocurrency you want. If you want to check out BlockFi, you can get an exclusive bonus of up to $250 free when you sign at allthehacks.com/blockfi Connect with All the HacksAll the Hacks: Newsletter | Website | Facebook | EmailChris Hutchins: Twitter | Instagram | Website | LinkedIn

As part of our Great PM Books Series, we've gather a panel of PMs from our community to have a discussion around Annie Duke's book, Thinking In Bets. Hear from JJ Rorie, Julia Lin, and Susan Liao. Share your favorite PM book with us: https://productblenders.typeform.com/bookideas

Annie Duke was a professional poker player and psychologist. Her book "Thinking in Bets" provides a brilliant set of rules and mental models for rationality in a confusing world.Sponsor - LinkedIn JobsAdvertise your job for free to the world's largest professional network of job seekers. The #1 rated marketplace for hiring according to small businesses. Start hiring for free today LinkedIn.com/growthConnect with Sam:Join the conversation on the social podcast app - PodvineSam's newsletter on creativity and entrepreneurship - Explosive Thinking Sam's podcast on books - Wiser Than Yesterday Support the Show - Patreon If you enjoyed the podcast please subscribe and rate it. And of course, share with your friends!Timestamps00:00 - Life is a game of chance00:51 - Episode outline02:01 - How Annie got into poker04:27 - Rule 1 - Seek Truth05:30 - Rule 2 - Never chase losses07:05 - Ad - LinkedIn Jobs08:21 - Mental models08:48 - Model 1 - Wisdom is statistically good choices11:44 - Model 2 - Question common knowledge14:11 - Model 3 - Bet on it15:44 - Wrap up Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/growth-mindset-podcast. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

For LBW Book Club, the team read Annie Duke's “Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts” recently.  A couple of concepts really stood out, and impacted our daily planning decisions greatly.  First, think about your best decision for the past year, and then think about your worst decision… Ready?  I bet you didn't think about the best and worst “decision”, but the best and worst “outcome/result”.  The resulting bias is everywhere.  Just because you have a positive outcome (you came home safely), doesn't mean you made a good decision (you decided to drive while drunk), and certainly doesn't mean you should repeat that decision over and over.  Secondly, the concept of backcasting and premortem: this is a planning method that starts with defining a desirable (or failed) future and then working backward to identify policies and programs that will connect that specified future to the present.  Oh man, isn't this why we do financial planning precisely?!  Third, the power of group thinking and decision pod.  Don't just talk to people that you know will confirm your belief, but have a decision pod with different knowledge, cultural background, and skill sets, to review your decision from different angles.  Again, don't discuss the result, but talk about the decision: how did we get here?  Overall, we recommend this book to anyone who strives to make better decisions in life!

Inspired by their recent betting vs. gambling episode (Bet), Riedl and Max discuss the popular strategy book "Thinking in Bets" by Annie Duke. The boys talk about how it is best to think about all decisions like a game of Texas Holdem. This is Part 3 of 3

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As part of our Best of Trending in Ed Series, we return to episode 202 of Trending in Ed from the Summer of 2019 where Mike Palmer interviews Annie Duke about her book, Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When We Don't Have All The Facts. We're “all-in” this week, as we welcome Annie Duke, author of Thinking In Bets and retired poker pro, to the show. Annie begins by sharing the long, winding path she took to become an author and expert in decision science. From her time as a PhD student in cognitive science to her introduction to poker as a novice to her inspiration to write her books, Annie provides great detail on all of the influences throughout her life that have come together to write Thinking In Bets.  We also dive into the non-profit, The Alliance for Decision Education, that Annie co-founded in 2012 and discuss how she hopes to push decision education at scale to millions of students in K12. How do we get decision-making wrong? How often do we worry about the result, see Pete Carroll's play-calling in Super Bowl XLIX, rather than the process that led to the decision? If we were to teach students the basics of good decision-making, how might this improve their ability to decide quickly and adapt to a variety of environments and novel contexts critical to learning and the future of work?  We discuss all that and more. So pull up a seat, ante up, and join us for an engaging conversation from back in the simpler days of 2019!  Subscribe to Trending in Ed wherever you get your podcasts. Visit us at TrendinginEd.com for more sharp takes on the future of learning.

Prayer of the day, introduction, who is the true conservative, strategy, tactics, no free lunch, thinking in bets, Twitter responses, conclusion

Inspired by their recent betting vs. gambling episode (Bet), Riedl and Max discuss the popular strategy book "Thinking in Bets" by Annie Duke. The boys talk about how it is best to think about all decisions like a game of Texas Holdem. This is Part 2 of 3

Episode 5 welcomes CAVU's COO Dr Larry Tribble. Today we will be chatting with Dr. Tribble about Annie Duke's book Thinking in Bets and discussing whether life is more of a chess match or a poker game.

Inspired by their recent betting vs. gambling episode (Bet), Riedl and Max discuss the popular strategy book "Thinking in Bets" by Annie Duke. The boys talk about how it is best to think about all decisions like a game of Texas Holdem. This is Part 1 of 3

Untangling the Complex - a book review---the Puzzler by AJ Jacobs and Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke

What is hype and how mischiefs and propagandists can help you build it? Or, in other words, how do you get people to hear and follow you? This is one of the many topics we discuss with our guest Michael F. Schein -- a writer and the author of the book “The Hype Handbook”. We also talk about thinning in bets, the future of social media, and the trap of following the rules others live by. LINKS“The Hype Handbook” by Michael F. Schein “The Medici Effect” by Frans Johansson“The Click Moment” by Frans Johansson

When facing uncertainty, how can you make the right decision every single time?Welcome BBCEOs, The podcast that believes you can love your job by increasing your career capital through learning rare and valuable skills - today's skill is clarity in decision making through a new way to think about what is a right or wrong decision… let's go!Think of right decisions as decisions that followed a sound process of information gathering. Understand the odds. Understand the risks. Gather feedback to refine your decision making process and improve for the next decision. 

Show Notes(01:43) Leigh-Marie shared her formative experiences of her childhood — growing up in Alabama, solving math problems competitively, and going to Phillips Exeter Academy.(04:21) Leigh-Marie discussed her undergraduate experience at MIT studying Math with Computer Science.(06:41) Leigh-Marie went through her internship experience at Jane Street and Blend.(10:07) Leigh-Marie recalled lessons learned from interning at Google — as an ML engineer for the Research and Machine Intelligence Team and an Associate Product Manager for the Chrome Web Platform team.(13:39) Leigh-Marie talked about her decision to join the early founding team of Scale API (now known as Scale AI) after finishing MIT.(17:30) Leigh-Marie explained why labeled data is the key bottleneck to the growth of the ML industry.(20:02) Leigh-Marie discussed the engineering and product challenges of dealing with 3D sensor data.(22:33) Leigh-Marie unpacked her experience building Scale's Sensor Fusion Annotation product from scratch, from gathering customer interests to building the initial MVP.(26:45) Leigh-Marie talked about learning curves during Scale's scaling phase, as the product had more advanced features and the customer list grew.(32:21) Leigh-Marie dived into Scale's credo emphasizing a relentless speed of execution.(35:00) Leigh-Marie shared valuable hiring lessons at Scale's early days (Read Alex's blog post about Scale's hiring philosophy).(38:05) Leigh-Marie went over the importance of developing uncompressed understandings of how everything works together as Scale grows.(41:39) Leigh-Marie shared her advice for folks who want to get into angel investing.(44:02) Leigh-Marie shared her motivation behind joining Founders Fund (Read Founders Fund's investment manifesto).(46:56) Leigh-Marie went over how she has been proving value upfront and forming investment theses as a new investor.(49:10) Leigh-Marie shared advice she has been giving to companies regarding their product-market fit and go-to-market fit strategies.(50:38) Leigh-Marie reflected on her transitions from software engineering to product management to venture capital.(52:31) Leigh-Marie shared the lesson learned from playing poker that benefits her careers in startup and venture.(54:19) Closing segment.Leigh-Marie's Contact InfoSubstackTwitterLinkedInGitHubQuoraFounders FundPeoplePeter ThielAli PartoviTrae StephensBooks“Angels” (by Jason Calanacis)“Zero To One” (by Blake Masters and Peter Thiel)“7 Powers: The Foundations of Business Strategy” (by Hamilton Helmer)Blog Posts“The One Data Platform To Rule Them All” (July 2021)“Startup Opportunities in Machine Learning Infrastructure” (Sep 2021)About the showDatacast features long-form, in-depth conversations with practitioners and researchers in the data community to walk through their professional journeys and unpack the lessons learned along the way. I invite guests coming from a wide range of career paths — from scientists and analysts to founders and investors — to analyze the case for using data in the real world and extract their mental models (“the WHY and the HOW”) behind their pursuits. Hopefully, these conversations can serve as valuable tools for early-stage data professionals as they navigate their own careers in the exciting data universe.Datacast is produced and edited by James Le. Get in touch with feedback or guest suggestions by emailing khanhle.1013@gmail.com.Subscribe by searching for Datacast wherever you get podcasts or click one of the links below:Listen on SpotifyListen on Apple PodcastsListen on Google PodcastsIf you're new, see the podcast homepage for the most recent episodes to listen to, or browse the full guest list.

Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result. In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a handing off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted, and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values, and even rewards, the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate, and successful in the long run. Includes a bonus PDF of charts and graphs. PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying PDF will be available in your Audible Library along with the audio.

Did you know there are 20 decisions a poker player needs to make per hand? That's a lot of decisions! So there's definitely a thing or two (or more) that we can learn from world-class professional poker player Annie Duke. In episode 3 of Monument Wealth Management's "Off the Wall" Podcast, hosts David B. Armstrong, CFA and Jessica L. Gibbs, CFP(R) talk with our co-founder Dean J. Catino, CFP® about lessons learned from Annie Duke's book, "Thinking in Bets". The takeaways on investment risk and improving your decision making behavior through a carefully designed process can be applied to all areas of your life, including your wealth. Learn more about Monument Wealth Management at www.monumentwealthmanagement.com Important Disclosures:  https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/disclosures 

(NOTAS COMPLETAS DEL CAPÍTULO AQUÍ: https://www.jaimerodriguezdesantiago.com/kaizen/76-toma-de-decisiones-vi-la-vida-es-poker-no-ajedrez/)Ahora que tan merecidamente de moda está Gambito de Dama, pensemos por un momento en el ajedrez. En el fondo, no es más que una sucesión de decisiones en las que nuestro acierto determinará nuestro resultado. Como la vida misma, ¿no?No exactamente. Aunque seguro que es útil para enseñarnos a tomar algunas decisiones, la vida se parece mucho menos al ajedrez que al poker, por ejemplo. A todas horas tomamos decisiones en nuestra vida. En ámbitos tan dispares como los negocios, las relaciones personales o nuestra salud. Pero casi todas ellas tienen en común que están sometidas a la suerte, a la incertidumbre, al riesgo y, a veces, al engaño. Todos ellos, factores muchos más propios del poker que del ajedrez. Porque, en el ajedrez, no hay información oculta, ni incertidumbre, ni la suerte influye: todas las piezas están sobre el tablero y sabemos exactamente la posición de cada una de ellas y los movimientos que pueden hacer. De hecho, es sólo un juego porque las posibles combinaciones son tantas que nos es imposible abarcarlas con nuestro cerebro; pero no deja de ser un enorme ejercicio de computación en el que siempre puede haber una decisión óptima. Y nuestra vida, desgraciadamente, no es así. El azar, la suerte, existe. Casi nunca tenemos toda la información, solemos tener que decidir sin conocer partes del problema. O sin saber cómo van a reaccionar otras personas, ni tan siquiera cuáles son sus posibles opciones. La vida es más poker que ajedrez. Ésta es al menos la teoría de Annie Duke. Claro, que ella fue jugadora profesional de poker y ahora escribe libros, qué va a decir, si no. Pero creo que tiene razón. Y de esta forma de ver las decisiones en la vida creo que se puede aprender mucho.

Child author Mo Willems started doing a daily video of drawing an QnA in an effort to bring people together during this social isolation. This is my contribution to that movement. This episode we discuss: The fitness class that I started using with the kids (you can steal this template for your own use - I use it too) The importance of nutrition during this time of social isolation. Resulting and how it is hurting your weight loss success.

Annie Duke is an author and professional poker player. She joins us for this episode of the podcast to share her wisdom on making good decisions. We typically assume that decision making is something we will only get better at through trial, error, and often just pure luck. Annie shares a plethora of tips and strategies that we can implement and practice in our lives by simply thinking in bets. What she has to share holds the potential to greatly improve our understanding and ability to navigate decision making in a constructive and healthy way. The good decisions start now, take a listen.Visit Annie's website www.AnnieDuke.com to find her book, Thinking In Bets, or get in touch with her. Annie Duke has founded a youth-focused non-profit organisation, found at www.HowIDecide.org. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-unmistakable-creative-podcast.

Prior to becoming a professional poker player, Annie was awarded the National Science Foundation Fellowship. Through this fellowship, she studied Cognitive Psychology at the University of Pennsylvania, which eventually led to her current book, Thinking In Bets. Here, Annie explores bad experiences as opportunities to learn from. Series: "Innovator Stories: Creating Something from Nothing" [Humanities] [Business] [Show ID: 34445]

This week on the Sales Hacker podcast, we are delighted to speak with world-famous author and teacher, Annie Duke. Annie is a former World Series of Poker winner and has written an incredible book detailing how thinking in bets can improve outcomes. In this episode, we take those concepts and apply them to sales.

In this episode with Annie Duke, we talk about the cognitive science behind decision making, how poker is similar to the decision-making process in business, and some of the decision-making traps we fall into.

Author Annie Duke was once one of the top poker players in the world. In her book, Thinking in Bets, she takes her lessons from nearly two decades at the poker table and uses them to help all of us make better decisions when we don't have all the facts.