RJ Bell's Dream Preview

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Winning sports picks from Las Vegas. Everything you need for free on the biggest games each week from Pregame.com's Wiseguy Roundtable. Alongside your host, we have professional bettor Steve Fezzik, plus more of the biggest names from the world of sports betting.

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    • Dec 17, 2025 LATEST EPISODE
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    • 1h 7m AVG DURATION
    • 2,122 EPISODES


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    Latest episodes from RJ Bell's Dream Preview

    CFB Bowl Preview - Wed, Thurs & Friday Games.

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 17, 2025 26:18


    Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith talk CFB bowl betting for this week. The episode opens with Old Dominion versus South Florida in Orlando. South Florida is effectively playing a home game, with the campus located roughly ninety minutes away. The key storyline is Old Dominion missing its starting quarterback, which significantly impacts both the spread and the overall game outlook. Given USF's offensive upside with Byron Brown and the situational edge, South Florida minus two and a half is viewed as a strong position. There is also interest in the over, based on USF's ability to score and ODU's defensive limitations. Next, the conversation shifts to Memphis versus NC State in the Gasparilla Bowl. Both teams play at a fast tempo and rely heavily on explosive plays, while neither defense is considered reliable. The total of fifty eight and a half reflects this, and the over is the preferred angle. NC State receives a slight lean on the side, but that recommendation is contingent on starting quarterback CJ Bailey playing. If Bailey were to sit, bettors are advised to exit both side and total positions immediately, as the offensive profile would change significantly. The third matchup discussed is California versus Hawaii on New Year's Eve. This game carries multiple storylines, including Cal quarterback JKS returning to his home state. Hawaii is seen as highly motivated in a true home environment, with both teams expected to retain their starting quarterbacks and minimal impactful opt outs at the time of recording. With strong passing attacks on both sides and the ability to respond quickly to deficits, the over is the strongest play, with Hawaii also drawing interest as a pick'em at home. The final game covered is New Mexico versus Minnesota in the Rate Bowl in Phoenix. New Mexico enters off one of its strongest seasons in recent years and is viewed as the more motivated team. Minnesota, meanwhile, may be less engaged in a non-playoff bowl setting. Market behavior holding the line under a field goal is interpreted as respect for New Mexico, and the Lobos are identified as a live underdog with legitimate outright win potential. The official best bets from the episode are South Florida minus two and a half and Hawaii at pick'em. The show also promotes the free Pregame.com College Football Bowl Bash contest, where participants can compete for bulk dollar prizes throughout bowl season. As emphasized throughout the episode, successful bowl betting requires close monitoring of opt outs, motivation levels, quarterback availability, and late-breaking information. Those factors often matter more than raw power ratings during this part of the college football calendar. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    Dream Recap - NFL Week 15

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 16, 2025 127:08


    RJ Bell and Mackenzie Rivers recap NFL Week 15. RJ Bell and Mackenzie Rivers recap NFL Week 15 focusing on true performance versus noise and how the Super Bowl market is shifting late in the season. The Rams are now the clear top team after ranking number one in offensive EPA minus turnovers for three straight weeks without benefiting from fast pace which signals elite repeatable execution. Stafford has surged into MVP favorite territory while Josh Allen is drawing late momentum as bettors reassess value. RJ stresses the importance of separating raw scores from underlying efficiency noting that pick sixes and short fields distort results while yards first downs and play level data better predict future outcomes. The Rams comeback win over Detroit looks even stronger when adjusting for misc touchdowns and sequence bias and McVay remains excellent on short rest especially on the road. Seattle remains strong but has not meaningfully improved while the Rams have clearly ascended making the Thursday matchup pivotal for NFC seeding. Denver made the biggest move of the week jumping from long shot to contender as Bo Nix played his best pro game and Sean Payton's system is clicking with the Broncos now a legitimate threat for the AFC one seed. Buffalo remains elite and explosive while Houston is quietly one of the most dangerous teams when Stroud has protection with the Texans ranking top three in several composite metrics. The Chiefs loss with Mahomes injured raises real dynasty questions though history suggests elite quarterbacks often rebound stronger. The Bears continue to improve behind better coaching defense and run game while the Raiders look like the league's worst roster raising doubts about their direction. The Giants appear content to lose positioning themselves for the top pick while Washington still plays hard. Best bets continue to dominate with large ATS margins underscoring process over results. The episode closes with broader discussion on markets media narratives coaching value and how late season clarity separates real contenders from teams riding variance. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    NFL Week 15 Player Props !!

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 12, 2025 47:37


    Munaf Manji and SleepyJ talk NFL player props for Week 15. Munaf Manji and SleepyJ break down NFL Week 15 player props on RJ Bell's Dream Preview. Munaf opens by noting the week's matchups and format—four props each, a TD pick, a pod best bet, and a Pregame.com coupon. Sleepy returns after illness, mentions fantasy playoffs, and brings extra RB and TE props. Sleepy starts QB props with Cam Ward under 191.5 passing yards, arguing late-season protection of franchise QBs on bad teams, Tennessee likely leaning run, and San Francisco's defense dominating similar QBs. Munaf supports the under and gives Josh Allen over 268.5 pass+rush yards vs New England, expecting heavy usage in a critical AFC East game and citing prior production and New England's strong run defense likely forcing more Allen attempts and scrambles. RB props: Sleepy plays Isaiah Pacheco over 30.5 rush yards, saying KC wins when he gets work, he outperformed Hunt last week, and the Chiefs need balance; he adds Derrick Henry over 88.5 rush yards vs Cincinnati due to cold weather, Ravens' RB injuries, Bengals' weak tackling, and Henry's big-run potential. Munaf agrees and plays Rhamondre Stevenson under 38.5 rush yards due to NE's committee backfield, Buffalo's recent defensive improvement, and Stevenson's inefficiency and low-touch projections. WR props: Sleepy takes Wondell Robinson over 56.5 receiving yards vs Washington's poor pass defense, expecting heavy targets from Jackson Dart and a motivating finish to NYG's season. Munaf picks Jaxon Smith-Njigba longest reception over 27.5 vs Indy, citing his frequent explosive gains at home and Colts' secondary injuries. TE props: Sleepy targets NYG again with Theo Johnson over 32.5 receiving yards, noting Washington's extreme vulnerability to TEs, Johnson's big-play tendency, and likely increased usage; he also plays Isaiah Likely over 34.5 vs Cincinnati, pointing to the Bengals' repeated failures vs TEs and Likely's speed in the Ravens' offense. Munaf supports both and chooses George Kittle over 60.5 receiving yards with Brock Purdy back, citing four straight overs, consistent targets, and SF's reliance on Kittle amid limited WR weapons. TD props: Sleepy plays Justin Jefferson +180 to score, expecting a breakout vs Dallas' weak pass defense and the Vikings' desire to feature him after minimal usage. Munaf takes Nico Collins +115 with Stroud healthy, and tentatively Devon Achane –130 if active against Pittsburgh's poor run defense. They discuss Pregame.com offers and segue to the pod best bet: Mark Andrews over 39.5 receiving yards vs Cincinnati, anchored in the Bengals' league-worst TE defense—nearly 100 yards allowed per game, double-digit targets per game to the position, and Andrews' strong historical production vs Cincinnati. They note Likely could also erupt and that Baltimore's offense should produce. They close discussing potential Ravens team-total overs, fantasy implications, and newsletter parlays, while noting Joe Burrow's comments about losing joy in football and the importance of Week 15 outcomes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    Dream Podcast - NFL Week 15 THE PICKS !!

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 11, 2025 131:49


    RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL betting for Week 15. The podcast opens with RJ Bell describing the show structure and promoting a discounted full-year picks package before shifting into Week 15 NFL betting talk with Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers. They discuss recent results, handicapping philosophies, line-movement dynamics, weather effects, and bookmaker behavior, mixing in anecdotes about old betting practices, phonemen, and language quirks around point-spread terminology. Fezzik gives his “polar vortex prop of the year,” longest field goal under 49.5 in Browns-Bears, citing brutal weather, weak kickers, conservative coaching, and low-scoring game scripts; RJ adds correlation angles tied to Chicago leads. They debate EPA versus success rate, with Fezzik preferring EPA and RJ emphasizing variance and predictability concerns. Mackenzie delivers a Chargers team total under pick based on QB injuries, offensive struggles, Kansas City's defensive resilience, and adverse weather. RJ argues the Chiefs' motivational profile, dynasty fatigue, and market perception. They dive into league-wide context, historical dynasties, roster construction challenges, aging curves, and whether Kansas City's run is ending. They discuss tight end props in Bengals-Ravens, citing Cincinnati's chronic vulnerability to the position and prior matchup evidence, plus anytime-TD correlation. The show includes debate over bad beats, especially the Raiders-Broncos ending, contentious officiating, end-game decision logic, and media reactions. They analyze Saints-Panthers, emphasizing New Orleans' defensive improvement, Carolina's inability to win as a favorite, quarterback evaluation stakes, and correlated RB usage props on Hubbard and D'Onta Foreman/Dowdle-type roles. They examine scheduling spots, letdowns, weather-driven live-betting opportunities, and in-game market inefficiencies. There are extended side conversations on quarterback development, work ethic, coaching influence, the rarity of late-career improvements, comparisons to poker variance, and examples like Caleb Williams, Sam Darnold, Richardson, Leaf, Mahomes, and coaching trees. They explore NFL history, Jerry Rice's longevity, statistical dominance, and position-based greatness debates. Additional analysis covers Rams-Lions, revenge narratives, McVay/Campbell trend conflicts, and market sharpness revealing how highly the Rams are now rated. They break down Colts-Seahawks amid QB uncertainty, massive line moves, historical precedent for non-QB quarterbacks like Kendall Hinton, and franchise-level psychological impacts of late-season injuries. They also explore Jets-Jags, weather, totals, and line influences. Throughout, they mix strategic betting heuristics, seasonal pattern tracking, notes-keeping practices, and philosophical reflections on variance, coaching, and market expectations. The episode blends picks, trends, analytics, storytelling, and humorous riffs into a wide-ranging conversation driven by handicapping logic and market interpretation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    CFB Podcast - 1st Rd Playoff Preview + Army/Navy & Best Bets !!

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 10, 2025 35:23


    Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith talk 1st round of the college football playoffs. Plus, the guys also discuss Army vs navy and best bets. Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith open the show with quick banter before reviewing their 2-0 best-bet week, noting Ohio State–Indiana unfolded exactly as anticipated: low scoring, defenses strong, offenses vanilla by design, and neither team revealing much ahead of the postseason. They discuss how little the matchup changed their power ratings and then touch on Texas' playoff snub, criticizing the committee's logic and the incentives it creates. Turning to Army–Navy, they view the number as fair, lean to the under and the dog based on service-academy tendencies, and expect a slow, clock-draining, defensive game where Navy may win but Army should stay inside the number. They move to Oregon vs. James Madison, where Oregon is a large favorite at home. Lonte argues JMU's trench issues against Troy signal major problems in Autzen, though he prefers Oregon team-total overs due to their explosive home scoring. He expects Oregon to blitz early, build a big lead, and possibly allow a late backdoor if backups enter, while JMU's QB Barnett is dangerous enough to score in garbage time. Griffin agrees the over makes sense given Oregon's likelihood of dominating early and easing late. Next is Texas A&M vs. Miami, with A&M a small home favorite. They discuss Miami's strong close to the season, its road wins under pressure, and its argument for playoff inclusion. Both hosts criticize the ACC's decision-making but see Miami as undervalued. Lonte highlights Miami's defense, pass rush, and success vs. mobile QBs; he sees A&M as overrated, weakened late in the year, and fortunate in several wins. Griffin questions A&M's offense under Marcel Reed and doubts he can exploit Miami's secondary. Both lean Miami plus the points. They then cover Ole Miss vs. Tulane, a playoff rematch the committee could have avoided. Ole Miss, breaking in a new head coach but retaining its staff and play-calling continuity, already beat Tulane 45–10 and has major motivational edges: first playoff appearance, first home playoff game, and desire to prove stability post-Lane Kiffin. Tulane's coach is outbound, and its offense lacks firepower. Lonte expects another decisive Ole Miss win and sees them as undervalued relative to Oregon's larger spread. Finally, they analyze Alabama at Oklahoma, with Alabama a small road favorite. Lonte expects Alabama to close as the favorite, believing sharp money will land on the Tide despite their poor showing vs. Georgia. He argues Oklahoma's offense is limited, over-dependent on QB Mateer's legs, and unlikely to exploit Alabama vertically, while Alabama's run defense and preparation time favor a tighter, more disciplined Tide performance. Griffin questions how OU's home field and Alabama's inconsistency factor in, but both see Alabama as the higher-rated team despite the earlier head-to-head loss. They close with best bets: Lonte on Ole Miss −17.5, projecting another blowout; Griffin on Miami +3.5, citing matchup advantages and skepticism of A&M's offense. Promo code information and closing remarks follow, encouraging listeners to engage on social channels and look ahead to more bowl-game analysis. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    Dream Recap NFL Week 14

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 9, 2025 108:37


    RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL recap for NFL Week 14. RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik, and Mackenzie Rivers review NFL Week 14 with a focus on Pittsburgh's upset win over Baltimore, debating Tomlin's coaching, luck, and officiating while agreeing the matchup is historically tight and favors underdogs. They discuss league-wide quarterback volatility, pointing out that Mahomes, Lamar, and Burrow all risk missing the playoffs, something rare in the modern era. Fezzik calls Steelers-Ravens a “Plinko game,” essentially a coin flip, and similar dynamics are noted in Houston-Kansas City, where Fezzik criticizes Reid for an overly aggressive fourth-down try in a low-scoring script. They challenge win-probability models, especially Ben Baldwin's, arguing game flow and defensive dominance weren't reflected. The group examines AFC playoff odds, leaning toward Denver or New England due to easier paths, while seeing Houston as dangerous but limited by road-game disadvantages. They highlight Denver's late-game strategy mastery, contrasting it with a controversial Raiders field goal that shifted betting outcomes and raised questions about intent. They emphasize how margins, analytics, and coaching incentives shape end-game decisions. The conversation expands into tanking, identifying Cleveland as suspicious after odd play-calling and unusually poor run-defense metrics despite overall strong performance. They criticize offensive inefficiency in Washington and note Sam Howell's injury accelerating collapse. Miami's explosive run game and McDaniel's coaching resurgence are praised, though cold-weather struggles for Tua temper expectations. Chicago is credited for improvement under Ben Johnson, while Detroit is viewed as regressing without him. Green Bay is labeled a “stat darling,” Seattle and the Rams as the NFC's most complete teams, and Buffalo as deeply flawed despite flashes of elite quarterback play, especially with a run game ranked near bottom by EPA. They argue the NFC deserves to be favored in the Super Bowl given multiple balanced contenders versus AFC inconsistency. They assess Jacksonville's uneven season, Denver's upward trajectory, and Las Vegas' structural issues. The show ends with commentary on coaching value, GM analytics, league parody, betting markets, and narrative bias driven by win-loss ordering, not performance. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    NFL Player Props Week 14

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 5, 2025 36:14


    Munaf Manji and Lonte Smith talk NFL player props for Week 14. Welcome to the NFL Week 14 Props episode on RJ Bell's Dream Preview. Munaf Manji hosts with Lonte Smith filling in. They recap Lions vs Cowboys and dive into props. QB props: Lonte takes Daniel Jones under 237 pass yards due to injury-limited mobility, quick throws, and Jacksonville's improving pass defense. Munaf takes Sam Darnold over 234.5 vs Atlanta, citing recent Falcons regression and favorable dome conditions. RB props: Lonte plays De'Von Achane over 115.5 rush+rec yards; Jets struggle vs dual-threat backs and Achane has averaged huge volume and efficiency. Munaf plays Ashton Gentry over 23.5 receiving yards thanks to steady targets, O-line issues forcing checkdowns, and Denver's strong run D pushing passes to RBs. WR/receiving props: Lonte takes Puka Nacua over 91.5 yards vs a weak Arizona secondary; high volume and breakout potential. Munaf takes Browns TE Harold Fannin Jr. over 37.5 yards due to Sanders' tendency to target him and recent consistency. TE props: Lonte plays Zach Ertz over 38 yards with Jayden Daniels returning, high usage, and Minnesota's weakness vs TEs. Munaf takes Tyler Warren over 51.5 vs Jacksonville, who allow heavy TE production; Jones' limited mobility should push short throws. Anytime TDs: Lonte picks Lamar Jackson at 3-1 in a divisional matchup where he expects a spike in rushing usage. Munaf picks Kyle Monungai (+190) for Chicago as the goal-line back, and Jaden Higgins (+370) for Houston due to defensive focus on Nico Collins. Best Bet: Bucky Irving over 86.5 rush+rec yards vs the Saints. He returned last week and immediately earned lead-back usage. Saints have a strong pass D but poor run D, giving up heavy rushing volume. Irving has prior success vs New Orleans and contributes in both phases; Baker's injury and expected conservative game plan further increase opportunities. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    Dream Podcast - NFL Week 14 THE PICKS !!

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 4, 2025 123:42


    RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL betting for Week 14. RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik, and Mackenzie Rivers break down NFL Week 14 betting, starting with RJ promoting a $50 seven-day all-access code WEEK50. Fezz's best bet is Colts to score first vs Jacksonville because of coin-toss tendencies and expected offensive advantage in a high-total game, with discussion about teams choosing to receive, scripting, first-drive props, and coin-flip-based derivative betting. RJ and Fezz debate optimal strategy, adjustments, and first-quarter dynamics. RJ describes analyzing first-drive receiver usage, highlighting Puka Nacua and Colts TE Alie-Cox/Woods/Warren (context mixed) as early-drive targets. They discuss deferring vs receiving, coaching tendencies, and how underdogs may benefit from taking the ball. They move into Fezz's prop focus shift and success. RJ and Fezz make a season-long sides/totals bet with RJ picking 30 games vs no-vig lines. Mackenzie reports RJ's recent streak (8–1 best bets, 10–2 likes). Conversation shifts to MVP odds, Stafford vs Drake Maye, injury risk, schedule strength, market pricing, and how voters behave. They also discuss Burrow's return, Bengals vs Bills line comparisons to past matchups, Cincinnati's weak defense, Buffalo's variance, McDermott's seat, and playoff stakes. Mackenzie's best bet is Bills –5.5 vs Bengals based on summer lines, defensive decline, and Buffalo urgency. RJ gives his best bet: Seahawks–Falcons under, citing Sam Darnold regression, Seattle protecting him, blitz issues vs Atlanta, scripted drives, Cousins limitations, motivation angles, and expectation of a 1995-style game. Fezz adds Chicago TE Loveland over yards due to increased targets and misleading prior stats. NBA segment: Thunder win projection, depth, injury savings, draft capital, and possible value on OKC to break the GS record; Knicks value to win the Atlantic. RJ provides more NFL picks: Packers team-total over, Bears team-total over based on Chicago offense improvement and defensive weakness; under in Chiefs–Texans due to Houston defensive surge, KC O-line issues, weather, and conservative game scripts; under first quarter Saints–Bucs because both offenses start slow and Tampa injuries limit explosiveness. They cover fire-and-ice weather mismatches, Fezz backing KC –3 vs Houston due to cold exposure issues, plus more rationale for the under. They discuss Pittsburgh–Baltimore history, third-quarter angle favoring the Ravens, Lamar's struggles outside the numbers, and prop opportunities for TEs/RBs. They note Indy's long losing streak at Jacksonville, Denver and Rams teaser options, Cleveland bad-weather unders, QB uncertainty for Washington and Chargers, and late-season bye effects. The show ends with general betting philosophy talk, variance, props, market holds, and closing banter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    CFB Championship Week + Best Bets !!

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 3, 2025 38:29


    CFB Championship Week + Best Bets In this championship-week episode of the College Football Podcast, Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith break down four major conference title games and how each may influence the College Football Playoff CFB Championship Week + Best Be… . They open with Texas Tech as a 13-point favorite over BYU, noting BYU's coaching distraction and one-dimensional offense, while Texas Tech's stronger trenches, multidimensional attack, and defensive advantages make them the superior version of BYU. Next, they turn to Georgia-Alabama, with Georgia laying 2.5. Lonte initially leaned heavily to Georgia but hesitated after Georgia's sloppy showing vs Georgia Tech and Alabama's uneven play at Auburn. He cites Kirby Smart's elite in-game adjustments, Georgia's ability to take over late, Alabama's struggles with pressure and running QBs, and assigns only a slight home-field bump for Georgia in Atlanta. They then dive into the ACC chaos of Duke vs Virginia, with UVA favored by 3.5, and the wild possibility that a 7-5 Duke win could leave the ACC without a playoff representative, potentially opening two Group-of-5 bids. Lonte likes the over due to both teams' volatility and Duke's high variance, though Virginia's multidimensional offense is a matchup advantage. Finally, they break down Indiana vs Ohio State, OSU -4.5 and total 48, a game both teams may treat cautiously since both are likely playoff-bound regardless of result. Lonte expects vanilla game plans, ball control, and elite OSU defense limiting explosiveness, making first-half and full-game unders appealing. Indiana has more emotional motivation and program history incentive, while OSU has the superior trenches and proven ability to hold plays back for the postseason. Griffin leans to Indiana plus the points given low urgency for OSU and Indiana's higher motivational ceiling. Best bets: Lonte takes under 23.5 first half in Indiana-OSU, expecting a slow, conservative script; Griffin takes Indiana +4.5. They wrap with promo code CHAMP15 for pregame.com and tease postseason episodes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    Dream Recap - NFL Week 13

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 2, 2025 92:04


    RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL recap from week 13. RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers recap NFL Week 13, starting with Fezzik's contest standings and shifting into a long debate about Lane Kiffin leaving Ole Miss for LSU, weighing money, reputation, player poaching, contract terms, and whether he should coach out the season, comparing it to corporate noncompetes and fan reactions; they discuss New Orleans, Baton Rouge, lifestyle differences, and how coaches and players evaluate opportunity versus loyalty. They transition to Survivor strategy, with Fezzik criticizing results-oriented praise for underdog picks and outlining math on contrarian value, distribution of picks on Philadelphia, Chicago, Baltimore and others, and how expected value—not outcome—should drive decisions. RJ pushes back that long-term projections people use may be overly certain and ignore variance in future point spreads. They then move game-by-game through the week: Bengals' win over the Ravens despite six field goals and Baltimore's four lost fumbles; Rams' statistically dominant but turnover-ruined loss to Carolina; Arizona outplaying Tampa but losing on turnovers; Atlanta statistically beating the Jets despite a close score; Seattle crushing Minnesota while the Vikings' offense posted historically awful EPA comparable to Denver's COVID no-QB game; San Francisco beating Cleveland by more than the stats suggested due to turnovers; Jacksonville blowing out Tennessee in a game that should've been closer; Houston beating Indy in a fairly accurate-to-stats final; Chargers annihilating the Raiders; Miami edging New Orleans with a pivotal defensive two-point runback; Washington-Denver ending on a two-point try showing how new OT rules increase one-point finals. They discuss power ratings, playoff odds, NFC West value on San Francisco versus Seattle and the Rams, Denver's “clutch” wins, Buffalo versus Kansas City, late-down success as a predictive metric, and coaching impacts. They close with prop-bet anecdotes, Steelers/Tomlin talk, kickoff-rule quirks, and a brief side discussion of media narratives and personal movie/TV habits. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    Dream Podcast - NFL Week 13 THE PICKS !!

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 27, 2025 80:02


    RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL betting for Week 13. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    NFL Player Props Week 13 !!

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 26, 2025 31:48


    Munaf Manji and SleepyJ talk NFL Player Props for week 13. Munaf Manji and SleepyJ break down NFL Week 13 player props, starting with quarterbacks. Sleepy takes Josh Allen over 238.5 passing yards against a weak Steelers pass defense that gives up 258 per game, expecting Allen to bounce back after a rough Week 12 and potentially post a huge ceiling game. Munaf backs Patrick Mahomes over 266.5 passing yards versus Dallas, citing the Chiefs' reliance on the pass, recent struggles establishing the run, returning receivers, and a vulnerable Cowboys pass defense; Mahomes has gone over this number in four of his last five. For running backs, Sleepy plays Patriots RB Travion Henderson over 68.5 rushing yards since he has taken control of the backfield and faces a poor Giants rush defense; Munaf agrees, noting Henderson's strong recent snap shares, Stevenson's fumbling issues, and the Giants allowing explosive production to multiple backs. At wide receiver, Sleepy targets Xavier Worthy over 38.5 receiving yards with KC likely to throw heavily and possibly seeing extra targets if Rice is limited; Munaf goes with Texans WR Nico Collins over 65.5, pointing to CJ Stroud's return, Collins' heavy target volume, and his massive history vs the Colts, with three straight games over 117 yards. For tight ends, they both attack the Bengals' league-worst TE defense, with Sleepy taking Mark Andrews over 37.5 and also recommending Isaiah Likely, noting that last week Henry and Hooper posted huge yardage; Munaf matches on Andrews and notes the Bengals allow 87 TE yards per game. For anytime TDs, Sleepy takes Saints RB Davon Neal at +290 with Kamara likely out and Neal seeing meaningful usage; Munaf mentions liking Xavier Worthy and CeeDee Lamb, plus chalkier options Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey. Their shared best bet is Saquon Barkley over 76.5 rushing yards vs the Bears, expecting Philadelphia to “reset” by leaning on the run after an embarrassing loss to Dallas; the Bears allow 156 rushing yards per game over the last three weeks, and Barkley can clear this with volume or a single explosive run. They close by promoting a Pregame promo code, wishing listeners a happy Thanksgiving, and stressing taking time with family before resuming the late-season grind. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    CFB Week 14 Preview + Best Bets !!

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 26, 2025 31:55


    Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith talk college football betting for week 14. Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith open with intensity after motivational commands highlight football's core themes of physicality, hustle, and leaving no doubt. Warner introduces the final-weekend discussion focused on four major games and best bets, noting unstable internet before asking Smith for last-week takeaways. Smith explains their split best bets, Michigan pulling away from Maryland, Georgia Tech's momentum fading, and Missouri–Oklahoma unfolding exactly as handicapped. With top teams unchanged and coaching moves beginning, he sees minimal surprises. Warner commits to unders and transitions to Texas vs Texas A&M, asking whether Texas can reach the playoff. Smith says Texas needs significant help due to ranking position. Warner praises Texas's rivalry history but questions A&M's legitimacy; Smith sees A&M as strong but just below true title contenders, citing defense, run game, receivers, and inconsistent QB play while noting a major road win. Discussion shifts to the betting line: A&M -2. Smith expects the line to stay between -2 and -2.5, noting Sarkisian's 2–8 ATS record as a dog and emphasizing Texas's need to run with Wisner and Baxter while exploiting A&M's vulnerable secondary. Warner doubts Texas's offensive line but finds it hard to resist Texas as a home dog. They move to Auburn vs Alabama, where Alabama is -6. Smith stresses Alabama must win but has struggled historically in such spots. He highlights Auburn QB Deuce Knight's 239 passing yards, 162 rushing yards, and six touchdowns versus Mercer while cautioning about competition level. Alabama's 8–3 ATS record, rivalry history, and Auburn's weak ATS numbers shape his expectation of a 7–10 point Alabama win. Warner questions why the line isn't higher; Smith cites rivalry volatility and uncertainty surrounding Knight. Warner then transitions to Ohio State vs Michigan, with Ohio State -10. Smith outlines playoff implications: Ohio State is effectively secure; Michigan must win. He details Ohio State injuries, including Jeremiah Smith likely under 50 percent, and emphasizes Michigan's physicality, home field, and improved health at running back. Michigan, he argues, can stay within the number by forcing Ohio State to run. Warner agrees the line feels inflated and sees classic value in a motivated home underdog. Next is Vanderbilt vs Tennessee, with Vandy +2.5. Smith calls it one of Vanderbilt's biggest games ever, noting no bad losses, quality wins, Tennessee's inconsistency, and Diego Pavia's strong recent play. Tennessee's vulnerable secondary and potential for explosive scoring lead him to prefer the over 66 and to lean Tennessee if betting but to wait on the line movement. Warner questions whether Vanderbilt's performance is inflating perception; Smith argues the line reflects Tennessee's flaws more than Vanderbilt's rise. For best bets, Smith selects Washington as a home dog due to Oregon's injuries and Washington's balanced offense and defensive pressure, projecting a close score. Warner takes Michigan +10 for value, motivation, and home-field strength, closing the show with humor and gratitude. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    Dream Recap - NFL Week 12 + Thanksgiving Games Preview !!

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 25, 2025 97:11


    RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL recap for Week 12. The guys also preview Thanksgiving Day football games. RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik, and Mackenzie Rivers break down the NFL Week 12 results, focusing on phony finals, line moves, quarterback value, and upcoming Thanksgiving games. They note several games where the winner failed to cover despite controlling yards and efficiency, including the Patriots over the Bengals, where New England dominated yards per play but failed in multiple goal-line stands. They discuss the evolving market perception of the Patriots, schedule strength adjustments, and how priors reduce by late season. They review the Burrow injury line movement and how the market prices uncertainty, concluding the Bengals' performance showed the impact of disappointment when a QB ruled “possible” ultimately sits. They examine Seattle–Tennessee, emphasizing how big favorites coast late and how punt-return TDs distort stats, along with Cleveland–Las Vegas, highlighting Chip Kelly's firing and expected offensive regression under new coordinator Greg Olson. They debate Sanders' surprisingly explosive plays for the Browns and how film people upgraded him despite Fezzik's skepticism. They analyze defensive player of the year odds, Miles Garrett's sack trajectory, and how props handle fractional sacks. Detroit–Giants and Jacksonville–Cardinals illustrate end-game analytics, field-goal vs fourth-down decisions, and how many outcomes hinge on coaches avoiding going up six. They revisit Dallas–Philly, discussing the Eagles' tendency toward half-game lulls, Dallas' big-play advantage, and midseason defense regression. They consider Atlanta's underrated strength after beating New Orleans and how overreactions to one bad QB performance distort markets. They break down Minnesota's QB crisis, O'Connell's ability to scheme around backups, and the incoming third-stringer Brosmer, speculating he may be an upgrade over McCarthy. They highlight the Rams' surge behind Stafford's MVP-level play, improved running game, and elite pass rush, contrasting with Tampa's limitations. Late games include Baltimore–Cincinnati with Burrow returning on a short week but missing Higgins, leading to under considerations. Thanksgiving picks: Fezzik's best bet is Green Bay–Detroit under due to slow pace, strong defenses, and divisional familiarity; RJ's best bet is Dallas +3.5 vs Kansas City, citing the brutal Sunday-to-Thursday overtime trend (6–25 ATS) for road teams and KC's emotional drain after a long OT game; they also like Cincinnati team-total under 21.5. They close by warning listeners not to overbet Thanksgiving and teasing more picks on Wednesday. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    Dream Podcast - NFL Week 12 THE PICKS !!

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 21, 2025 98:59


    RJ bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL betting for Week 12. Best bets as always. In this Week 12 NFL betting podcast, RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik, and Mackenzie Rivers break down matchups, trends, props, and power ratings while debating quarterback value, team motivation, weather effects, and market movement. RJ opens by promoting a 90-day all-access package and highlighting recent hot handicappers. Fezzik's best bet is Raiders team total over 19.5, citing Cleveland's historically poor road-defense scoring prevention and likely short-field opportunities created by rookie QB Sanders' turnover risk. RJ and Mackenzie evaluate low totals, weather, and historical under trends but agree the Raiders angle is stronger than the full-game over. RJ's best bet is Colts +3.5 vs Kansas City, arguing the teams are essentially equal in yards per play, success rate, and win-probability metrics, with KC overrated due to legacy bias and declining defensive performance. Fezzik adds Colts to score first at plus money due to coin-toss tendencies. Mackenzie's best bet is Lions -10 over the Giants, supported by Dan Campbell's elite ATS record off a loss, the Giants' league-worst run defense, and favorable matchups for Detroit's run game. Fezzik adds Lions team total over 30.5 and an SGP on Gibbs and Montgomery rushing overs. RJ also bets Falcons +2 vs the Saints, believing market overreacted to Kirk Cousins' injury perception and that Atlanta's roster, motivation, and power ratings remain stronger than New Orleans', which may be slipping into tank mode. Later, Fezzik plays Chase Brown under 60.5 rush yards due to expected shotgun-heavy Bengals offense with Burrow limited by turf toe and a strong Patriots run defense. The crew discusses Chicago-Pittsburgh, with RJ making his play contingent: if Rodgers starts, he likes the Bears; if Rudolph starts, he likes the over. They examine Jets-Ravens, Seahawks-Titans, Vikings-Packers, Jaguars-Cardinals, Raiders-Browns, Cowboys-Eagles, Rams-Buccaneers, and broader power-rating tiers, highlighting turnover luck, declining offenses, evolving defenses, team fatigue, coaching signals, and motivational windows. They close by summarizing all official picks and reinforcing that several favorites may be inflated while injured QBs, travel spots, and disguised regression points create value on selected dogs, overs, and player props. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    CFB Week 13 Preview + Best Bets !!

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 19, 2025 35:46


    Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith talk CFB betting for Week 13. Here is a tight, single-paragraph, no-line-break summary under 3400 characters, covering the full uploaded podcast transcript: Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith open with a hype locker-room clip before breaking down Week 13 CFB betting. Griffin laments Texas' collapse against Georgia, including the perfectly executed onside kick that swung momentum and effectively ended Texas' playoff hopes. Lonte says Texas has no realistic path even if they beat A&M, with too many 10-2 teams in the way. They move to Oklahoma vs Missouri, noting OU was badly outgained by Alabama but won through turnovers, and both hosts prefer the under given OU's defensive strength and offensive inconsistency with Mateer. Missouri's run-heavy approach is unlikely to succeed against OU's stacked boxes. They then discuss USC at Oregon, surprised the line jumped to Oregon -10. Lonte argues USC is undervalued, their offense can score even against elite defenses, and Oregon has looked weaker due to injuries; he expects a shootout and likes USC plus the points and the over. Griffin questions why the market inflates Oregon and agrees USC is live. Next is Pitt at Georgia Tech, a key ACC playoff-implication game; Lonte says Pitt likely overlooked Notre Dame last week but should be focused here, expects volatility from Pitt QB Veilleux, likes the over and thinks Pitt wins outright. Griffin notes GT's small home-field edge and the market's lukewarm respect for them. They then cover BYU at Cincinnati, with BYU controlling its Big 12 destiny while Cincinnati's season is effectively over. Lonte cites BYU's resilience and trench strength, saying they can limit Cincinnati's powerful run game and win a close one. Griffin wonders why the market keeps undervaluing BYU despite consistent results. They promote a Pregame.com discount code, then deliver best bets: Lonte takes Maryland +14 vs Michigan, arguing Michigan hasn't justified big spreads, struggles on the road, and Maryland is motivated with solid QB play. Griffin's best bet is Missouri–Oklahoma under 42, citing OU's offensive troubles, an early start, and Missouri's limited explosiveness, expecting a defensive grind. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    Dream Recap - NFL Week 11

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 18, 2025 98:15


    RJ bell and Mackenzie Rivers discuss NFL Week 11 recap. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    UFC 322 Della Maddalena Vs. Makhachev

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 15, 2025 69:22


    SleepyJ and Mean Gene talk UFC betting for UFC 322 Madalena vs Makachev headlines a stacked UFC 322 card from MSG, with Sleepy J and Mean Gene breaking down eight fights. They agree early on Erin Blanchfield vs Tracy Cortez, both backing Blanchfield due to improved striking, strength, and ability to control exchanges despite Cortez winning their pre-UFC meeting. They also align on Roman Kopylov as a live underdog over Gregory “Robocop” Rodrigues, citing Rodrigues' shaky chin, tendency to brawl despite having grappling advantages, and Kopylov's power and durability after facing an elite Paulo Costa. Next, both pick Bo Nickal over Rodolfo Vieira, expecting Nickal to lean on his elite wrestling in a measured, mistake-free game plan after his setbacks, likely controlling the ground without risking unnecessary stand-up exchanges. Their first disagreement comes with Beneil Dariush vs Benoit Saint-Denis: Gene picks BSD, trusting his pressure, power, and revived momentum, while Sleepy prefers Dariush's superior skill and grappling if he can avoid big shots. Another split follows with Carlos Prates vs Leon Edwards; Sleepy sides with Edwards' championship experience and durability, while Gene believes Prates' relentless forward pressure and destructive power will break Edwards as others have recently. They reunite on Sean Brady over Michael Morales, expecting Brady's grappling, control, and veteran savvy to neutralize Morales' explosive striking and deliver a “vet lesson” in a key contender matchup. In the co-main event, Gene backs Zhang Weili moving up for two-division glory, praising her evolution, volume, and ability to capitalize on Shevchenko's occasional grappling mistakes, while Sleepy takes Valentina Shevchenko as the stronger, cleaner, more technical striker with superior size and takedown defense. In the main event, both predict Islam Makachev dominates Jack Della Maddalena early, with Makachev's wrestling, control, and improved striking overwhelming a dangerous but out-classed champion who still has defensive gaps against elite grapplers. They expect an early submission or dominant finish as Makachev pursues champ-champ status. The show wraps with confidence in the card's quality, a few strategic disagreements to help bettors evaluate both sides, and reminders to use code HOOK50 at Pregame. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    NFL Week 11 Player Props !!

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 14, 2025 32:01


    Munaf and Lonte get into NFL week 11 player props. Munaf and Lonte break down NFL Week 11 props on the Dream Preview: Munaf hosts with guest Lonte filling in for Sleepy J. They discuss the ugly Thursday game and move to QB props. Lonte's QB pick: Josh Allen over ~219 pass yards vs Tampa, noting Buffalo's bounce-back spot, Tampa's recent defensive struggles (Goff 241, Mac 347, Darnold 341, Maye 270) and Buffalo leaning pass-heavy. Munaf's QB pick: Jacoby Brissett over 236.5 pass yards vs SF based on four straight overs (320/279/261/258), injuries to Cards WRs, weak SF pass defense, and expected negative script. RB props: Lonte takes Kenneth Walker under 44.5 rush yards vs SF citing inconsistent workload, Charbonnet usage, SF run D, and poor matchup for Walker's style. Munaf takes Jalen Warren over 101.5 rush+rec yards vs CIN after 158 last meeting, consistent recent volume, CIN giving up 141 rush yards + 44 receiving to RBs. WR/TE props: Lonte pivots to TE Brock Bowers over 70.5 yards vs Dallas due to mismatch vs DAL LBs, expected target spike, and previous big bounce-back after a one-catch game. Munaf backs Jaylen Waddle over 78.5 vs Washington (recent 95/99/82/84 games, WAS secondary allowing 178 to WRs, Waddle's YAC and target expectation). Lonte doubles with Dalton Schultz over his receiving yards AND anytime TD vs TEN, referencing strong Mills-Schultz connection, 11 targets last week, red-zone usage, and TEN allowing TE production. Munaf plays Zach Ertz over 43.5 yards vs Miami (recent 46/54, Dolphins allowing 71 to TEs, WAS injuries, 5+ targets in 4 of 5). TD props: Lonte—Schultz. Munaf—Pat Freiermuth +230, Jonnu Smith +230, Ladd McConkey +155, and Aaron Jones +135. They plug the Pregame contests and Ready50 promo. Agreed best bet: Joe Flacco over 255.5 pass yards vs PIT; Steelers have been shredded by QBs (4 of prior 5 over 340 yards), Flacco threw 342 vs PIT in TNF matchup, comes off 470-yard game, has Chase/Higgins/Chase Brown, Bengals airing it out 45+ attempts often, extra rest helps shoulder. Close with hopes to sweep the board and return for Week 12. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    Dream Podcast - NFL Week 11 THE PICKS !!

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 13, 2025 104:20


    RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL betting for week 11. RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers break down NFL Week 11 betting, starting with RJ promoting a discounted half-season package and highlighting hot handicappers before diving into matchups, market moves and derivative angles. They discuss Fezzik's strong college football season, best bets from previous weeks, and review wins on Jets spreads, Houston-Denver unders, Washington and Cincinnati games, plus Rams and London totals, noting a streak of strong “spot seven cover” results. McKenzie recounts past real-estate ventures as the trio jokes, then they shift into Week 11 analysis: Bengals second-half performance vs Pittsburgh, predictive metrics showing large first-half/second-half splits, and why Cincinnati +3.5 in the second half is RJ's best bet. They break down Green Bay's injuries, Philly line moves, wide-receiver depth concerns, and how market shifts through key numbers signal anti-Green Bay sentiment. They analyze Tampa Bay vs Buffalo, Baker Mayfield's lack of recent rushing, and whether injury or coaching changes explain performance dips. They touch on Tennessee improving after coaching changes, Kansas City's struggles, and how situational scheduling affects motivation. Fezzik gives his picks: Miami 1Q -130, Ravens-Browns under 39.5, and props including Brock Bowers and McBride overs, with McBride's volume spike under Jacoby Brissett emphasized. RJ questions line discrepancies in receiving props and discusses weather-driven total movement. The group debates quarterback traits, offensive limitations, and matchup-specific vulnerabilities, including Arizona's resilience and aggregate point-loss profile. They note 49ers scenarios, comeback histories, late-game aggression logic and how analytics or simulations contrast with intuitive coaching decisions. They close by previewing next week's recording schedule, recapping picks, and encouraging bettors to time wagers around market-expected weather drops, emphasizing second-half mismatches, injury context and evolving team profiles while keeping the tone humorous and conversational. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    CFB Week 12 Preview + Best Bets !!

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 12, 2025 36:05


    Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith cover 5 big games for college football Week 12. Best bets as always. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    Dream Recap - NFL Week 10

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 11, 2025 87:47


    RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL recap for week 10. Here's a tight, 3200-character (with spaces) no-line-break summary of RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik, and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL recap for Week 10: RJ Bell opens by recapping Sunday's NFL action with Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers, starting with Carolina's loss to New Orleans. Fezzik stayed with Carolina in Survivor and noted how the team keeps failing as a favorite. RJ highlighted the Saints' dominant defense and improved offense with six yards per play, nearly 400 yards, and late red-zone chances. Mackenzie said metrics showed New Orleans should've won by 15, confirming their superiority. Fezzik described halftime betting adjustments and rare line movements, explaining how small second-half line shifts can mislead bettors. The crew discussed the Eagles-Packers matchup and how Carolina's poor showing after beating Green Bay exposed Bryce Young's struggles, agreeing he looks like a future backup QB. Shifting to Buffalo-Miami, RJ asked how the Bills lost by 17 despite being strong favorites. Fezzik said turnovers and Miami's efficiency made the score misleading but fair. They discussed Kansas City's standing and how market perception shapes betting lines. Lions-Washington followed, with Fezzik citing Dan Campbell's record off a loss, the Lions' 546-yard offensive explosion, and Washington's inept defense. RJ and Fezzik analyzed how Detroit dominates as a big favorite, while Seattle eases off late in blowouts. Both agreed Seattle's defense and DVOA rank were elite, with Mackenzie noting they were top-ranked historically. The trio reviewed Super Bowl odds, seeing Kansas City, Rams, Seahawks, and Lions in a cluster. They debated kick distances, field goal post dimensions, and quirky rule-change ideas like multi-tiered posts for extra points. They then analyzed Colts-Falcons, where Fezzik said Indy's sacks masked dominance. RJ detailed Jonathan Taylor's game-breaking runs and argued elite backs still matter. Discussion turned to Vrabel's clock management before halftime, balancing touchdown odds with time control. RJ and Fezzik debated analytics-driven plays and the evolving tension between strategy and entertainment, warning about over-analysis diminishing football's simplicity. Fezzik proposed rule fixes like stopping the clock on intentional penalties (“The Fezzik Rule”). Later, they covered Rams-49ers, crediting the Rams' offense and questioning Trey Lance's legacy versus Mac Jones. They discussed the Bears' improvement, Caleb Williams' mobility, and how young QBs must run to succeed early. Fezzik compared run-heavy QBs' durability risks. RJ outlined the link between rushing ability, learning curves, and NFL survival. They reviewed misleading finals like the Jets game where bad offenses combined for 47 points, Cleveland's poor road offense, and statistical anomalies between yardage, success rate, and results. Finally, they debated Texans-Jaguars' late collapse, noting Houston's comeback from 19 down, and closed on Colts-Falcons, where stats favored Indy despite a close overtime finish. RJ teased his next best bet streak continuing and wrapped with a promise to deliver Thursday's betting pod picks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    NFL Week 10 Player Props + Agreed Pick !!

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 7, 2025 40:15


    Munaf Manji and SleepyJ talk NFL player props for week 10. Munaf Manji and Sleepy J host the NFL Week 10 Props edition of RJ Bell's Dream Preview, opening with the early Berlin matchup between the Colts and Falcons. Sleepy starts by betting Daniel Jones under 243.5 passing yards, citing Atlanta's top-ranked pass defense and expectation of a run-heavy, clock-chewing game featuring Jonathan Taylor. Munaf agrees, benches Jones in fantasy, and counters with Baker Mayfield over 246.5 passing yards versus New England, arguing the Patriots' rush D is elite but their secondary vulnerable. Sleepy concurs, noting Tampa's bye week prep and New England's difficulty stopping air attacks. Moving to rushing props, Sleepy doubles up: Daniel Jones over 15.5 and Josh Allen over 26.5 rushing yards, both facing heavy blitz teams (Falcons, Dolphins) that force quarterbacks to scramble. Munaf supports the logic and shifts to Christian McCaffrey over 50.5 receiving yards against the Rams, highlighting his consistent over trend, matchup history, and integral passing role. Sleepy backs the pick, expecting San Francisco to trail and throw often. On receivers, Sleepy picks Rome Odunze over 3.5 receptions (-145), predicting a “squeaky wheel” response after Odunze's father publicly complained about his lack of targets; he expects a bounce-back game against the Giants' poor secondary. Munaf echoes that, expecting early targets and likely over by halftime. He then takes Amon-Ra St. Brown over 80.5 receiving yards vs. Washington, noting Detroit's offensive rebound spot, his four straight 86+ yard games, and heavy target share. Sleepy agrees, warning “never fade Amon-Ra,” then adds Zach Ertz over 34.5 receiving yards for the injury-depleted Commanders, expecting Mariota's tight end usage. Munaf approves and adds Dalton Schultz over 34.5 receiving yards vs. Jacksonville, pointing out the Jaguars' vulnerability to tight ends and Davis Mills' reliance on Schultz. Touchdown section: Munaf picks Rome Odunze (+155), Jackson Dart (+170), and Aaron Jones (+105), forecasting scoring from dynamic playmakers and dump-off opportunities. Sleepy goes contrarian, taking longshot Jaguars tight ends Johnny Munt (+850) and Alan Trammell (+800) due to injuries thinning Jacksonville's depth. Their agreed best bet: Marvin Harrison Jr. over 55.5 receiving yards vs. Seattle, backed by Brissett's deep passing confidence, expected trailing script, and Harrison's big-play potential (96 yards last week). Sleepy endorses, citing Brissett's freedom to air it out and Harrison's earlier 66-yard game vs. Seattle. The show closes with promos: use coupon “SWEEP50” at Pregame.com for $50 off NFL/CFB season packages and Sleepy's $299 college basketball package. Both hosts expect profits and emphasize their prop track record, wrapping with optimism for Week 10 and anticipation for Week 11's follow-up show. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    Dream Podcast - NFL Week 10 THE PICKS !!

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 6, 2025 118:19


    RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL betting for Week 10. RJ Bell opens discussing early college basketball betting value with discounted season packages before turning to NFL Week 10. Joined by Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers, they dissect matchups and betting logic with humor and insight. Fezzik recalls “wax on, wax off” fundamentals and admits to pregame bourbon. Discussion starts with Pittsburgh's turnover-driven defense, strip sacks as skill not luck, and how fading the Steelers has burned bettors. Bell then challenges Fezzik on correlation in QB rushing props, arguing Mahomes and Allen's attempts should be positively related since trailing QBs and peer competition both increase rushing, despite Fezzik's kneel-down caveat. Fezzik's best bet is Steelers +3 vs Chargers, citing injuries and inflated home-field edge; Bell reads data showing Greer's model rates L.A.'s home edge too high due to time zone and turf, but agrees it matters slightly. They pivot to Chargers' offensive-line woes, strip-sack risk, and discuss under 24 as team total. Bell worries Chargers will play ultra-conservative, strengthening the under; both concur. Next, Bell touts Jets +2½ as best bet, saying trades of Gardner and Williams remove malcontents, boost morale, and the market overreacted. He argues the Browns' offense has collapsed under their new QB, while Fezzik doubts locker-room psychology but concedes value. They estimate Cleveland would need a historically low power rating for current pricing. Talk shifts to Baltimore-Minnesota: Bell calls Vikings +4 a top play, seeing market overadjustment; McCarthy's emergence offsets Ravens' hype. Fezzik agrees. McKenzie's best bet is Rams –4½ over 49ers, citing defensive injuries to Warner and Bosa and San Francisco's fading metrics; Bell agrees line aligns with true injury impact. Fezzik's second bet is Bears WR Odunze over 5 catches after a zero-target game—expecting “feed the star” correction. They banter on Cubs nostalgia before Bell endorses the logic. Fezzik's teaser pairs New England +8½ and Philadelphia +8½, fading overrated Tampa and Green Bay; Bell likes the reasoning but downgrades Pats' schedule. Their third core debate centers on Houston-Jacksonville: Bell favors Houston or Jaguars team-total under 20, expecting a grind with backup Davis Mills and Demeco Ryans' disciplined D; Fezzik projects low pace and agrees under likely rises. They elaborate on clock tactics, situational play-calling, and coach analytics gaps, with Fezzik's mock “Omaha” cadence comedy. Later, Fezzik reveals surviving in a 1,500-player contest, leaning Carolina over New Orleans in Survivor, while Bell praises the logic. They close ranking NFC teams—Rams, Seattle, Detroit, Philly—with Seattle surging and Detroit flagged as “fraud alert.” Bell muses about prediction markets, election betting, and “super-forecasters,” proposing such analysis for future shows. After humorous tangents on coaches, parenting, and old movies, they recap best bets: Bell—Jets +2½, Vikings +4, Houston under setup, Patriots +; Fezzik—Chargers under 24, Odunze over 5 catches, Pats/Eagles teaser; Mackenzie—Rams –4½. Fezzik signs off: “Be careful out there.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    CFB Week 11 Preview + Best Bets !!

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 5, 2025 35:53


    Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith dive into this weeks College football slate. The guys have been hot. College Football Podcast: Week 11 Breakdown with Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith The College Football Podcast from Pregame.com delivered another deep dive into the sport's biggest Week 11 matchups as hosts Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith broke down the betting angles, playoff implications, and standout performances shaping the season. The duo opened the show reflecting on a rough previous week after an earlier hot streak, then jumped straight into analysis of Texas Tech's clash with BYU. Lonte emphasized the Red Raiders' dominant defensive line and BYU's reliance on the run, calling Texas Tech the clear side and liking the over thanks to their prolific scoring at home. From there, the conversation moved to Oregon vs. Iowa, where Griffin leaned toward the home dog and the under, anticipating a slugfest dictated by field position and strong defenses. Lonte noted Oregon's inconsistent offense and Iowa's capacity to rise against elite opponents, making it a tricky number hovering around six points. Next up was Missouri hosting Texas A&M, where the guys agreed Mizzou could hang tough by leaning on its ground game, exploiting A&M's weakness against the run, and controlling tempo. Despite A&M's unbeaten SEC run, Lonte pointed out the Aggies' vulnerability in stopping power backs like Ahmad Hardy, giving the Tigers a shot to cover and push the under. The show wrapped with the LSU–Alabama rivalry, once a national spectacle and still a bettor's delight. With Brian Kelly out, Lonte predicted the “new-coach bump” would spark LSU to compete deep into the fourth quarter, while Griffin backed the Tigers' talent depth and recruiting base as key edges against an Alabama squad that has struggled to dominate weaker teams. The hosts agreed Bama's defense and game-management lag behind its reputation, noting how NIL parity has leveled talent across the SEC. For best bets, Lonte offered a weekday MACtion appetizer—Ball State moneyline vs. Kent State—and LSU plus the points in Tuscaloosa. Griffin backed Oregon–Iowa under 40.5 as his top play. They closed by reminding listeners to use promo code Passing50 for $50 off season packages on Pregame.com. With humor, candor, and sharp insight, Warner and Smith blended betting strategy, analytics, and college football passion into a fast-paced hour that felt both educational and entertaining. It was a show for sharp bettors and diehard fans alike, showing why the Pregame Network's college football coverage continues to stand out. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    Dream Recap - NFL Week 9 !!

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 4, 2025 98:52


    RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL week 9 recap and much more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    NFL Week 9 Player Props + Agreed Pick !!

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 31, 2025 40:44


    Munaf Manji and SleepyJ talk NFL Player props for week 9 and much more. NFL Week 9 Player Props – Munaf Manji & SleepyJ RJ Bell's Dream Preview NFL Player Props Podcast (Week 9)! Host Munaf Manji (@SportsNerd824) and co-host SleepyJ break down the best plays and prop angles from every corner of the slate. (0:11) Munaf opens by recapping Thursday Night Football and the Ravens' 28-6 win as Lamar Jackson looks back to MVP form. The guys then dive right into quarterback props—(2:20) SleepyJ takes J.J. McCarthy over 209.5 passing yards in a potential Vikings-Lions shootout, while (4:04) Munaf backs Sam Darnold over 240.5 yards off a bye vs. Washington's weak secondary. (7:02) SleepyJ praises rookie WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba's route running and synergy with Darnold. (8:42) Running back props: SleepyJ's on Chase Brown over 53.5 rush yards vs. the Bears, highlighting his growing workload and Cincinnati's soft matchup; (11:06) Munaf counters with Christian McCaffrey over 75.5 rush yards against the Giants' bottom-tier run defense. (15:49) Wide receivers next: Sleepy loves Rashid Shaheed over 39.5 yards as New Orleans' deep threat with strong target share, while (20:08) Munaf targets Deami Brown over 40.5 yards for Jacksonville amid injuries to Hunter and Thomas Jr. (24:50) Tight end props—both agree on Tyler Warren over 55.5 yards vs. Pittsburgh's TE-bleeding defense. (27:51) Sleepy goes chalk with Ja'Marr Chase anytime TD (-135) as Flacco's top red-zone weapon; (28:58) Munaf fires Nico Collins +140, Tyler Warren, and CeeDee Lamb for TD markets. (30:25) Pregame.com promos: enter code RUN15 for $15 off packages, and join contests like Beat Dave Essler NBA for cash prizes. (32:28) The Best Bet: Dak Prescott over 266.5 passing yards (MNF vs. Arizona)—both expect a shootout with Dallas's defense reeling. (35:53) Sleepy calls it a “500-yard-type game,” with Dak poised to explode. (36:11) Wrap-up shoutouts to RJ Bell's SOV AM feed and Pregame's MLB/NBA pods. NFL props, analysis, and value plays every week—subscribe, like, and cash tickets with us! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    Dream Podcast - NFL Week 9 THE PICKS !!

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 30, 2025 97:37


    RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers dive into NFL Week 9 betting. RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers deliver an intense, fast-moving breakdown of NFL Week 9 betting, loaded with sharp insights, humor, and veteran perspective. (0:00–2:44 RJ) RJ opens with a limited-time $20 for $100 Pregame.com promo, setting a self-aware tone after a cold streak before pivoting to the “six-seven” inside joke. (2:45–9:38 RJ & Fezzik) They riff on culture and YouTube memes, then dig into Fezzik's documented record, the reality of variance, and public scrutiny—RJ publicly offers to bet $1K with anyone doubting Fezzik's winning ways. They stress long-term perspective, bankroll discipline, and Fezzik's 9-of-12 winning seasons. (9:39–15:14 Fezzik) Fezzik unveils his best bet: Atlanta Falcons +0.5 first quarter vs Patriots, citing motivation, coin-toss edges, and mismatch value. RJ challenges him on quarterback health and run-defense matchups, while McKenzie supports with EPA and DVOA metrics. (15:15–24:36) They debate totals, QB injuries, and the “grand salami” of leaguewide overs, revealing how context and psychology shape numbers. (24:37–35:06 RJ) RJ fires his best bet: Houston–Denver Under 40, explaining how both teams' offenses collapse under defensive pressure, why line moves misprice QB injuries, and how coaching style (Sean Payton's conservatism) locks games into “rock fight” mode. (35:07–38:25 Mackenzie) Mackenzie counters with Colts –3 vs Steelers, supported by data showing the Steichen offense outperforming Tomlin's blitz-heavy D; RJ and Fezzik debate side vs team-total angles and line value between –2.5 and –3. (38:26–44:46 Fezzik) Fezzik adds Saints +3.5 4Q vs Rams and Panthers +3.5 4Q vs Packers, explaining how blowouts, motivation, and end-game math make late-quarter dogs profitable. RJ dissects situational trends, home/road splits, and QB rotations, endorsing both plays. (44:47–59:15) They tangent hilariously into Shakespeare, “Back to School,” and North Texas–Navy live-betting logic, turning first-quarter tempo into a masterclass in betting time segments. (59:16–1:03:38 RJ) RJ's second best bet: Arizona Under 26.5 points at Dallas (MNF), citing Kyler Murray's road, primetime, and post-injury struggles; Fezzik cautions against underestimating Dallas's weak D. (1:07:14–1:10:22 Fezzik) Fezzik's player prop: Mahomes Over 4.5 rushes, Allen Over 7.5 rushes, backed by game-flow data and high-leverage situational running. (1:14:45–1:20:27 RJ) RJ leans Chiefs –2.5 vs Bills, defending KC's underrated defense and Mahomes's playoff-like motivation. (1:25:03–1:30:04) They hit Chargers –3 vs Titans, praising Harbaugh's 15-4 ATS record on East-coast trips, and (1:30:05–1:33:12) explore 49ers run game props vs Giants. (1:33:53–end) Final lightning round: Bears to score first vs Bengals, quick-hit leans, and closing banter on variance, sharp edges, and humility in handicapping. Featuring: RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) | Steve Fezzik (@FezzikSports) | Mackenzie Rivers (@mackinRivers)Topics: NFL Week 9 best bets, first-quarter/4Q angles, totals logic, QB prop edges, and how to read line value like a pro.

    CFB Week 10 Preview + Best Bets !!

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 29, 2025 31:58


    Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith dive into CFB Week 10 betting. Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith review a strong Week 9, going 2-0, and dive into CFB Week 10 betting. They start with Vanderbilt vs Texas. Texas is a 1.5-point favorite at home, total 44.5. Lonte praises Vanderbilt's resilience after a key injury and their ATS success. He notes Texas' comeback over Mississippi State led by Arch Manning before his concussion. Texas' defense can dominate, but their offensive line and rushing attack are weak, ranking low nationally. Lonte expects a run-heavy game and likes the under, leaning Texas if Arch plays. Griffin doubts Arch clears concussion protocol quickly and expects Texas to rely on the run, facing a vulnerable Vanderbilt D-line. Both agree the trenches favor Texas, making the under appealing. Next, they preview Texas Tech at Kansas State. Tech is -7.5, total 52.5. Lonte discusses QB injuries—Hammond's ACL tear and Morton's durability concerns. Kansas State, led by Avery Johnson, has covered four straight, averaging over 35 points since their bye. Their passing game shines when not blitzed, but rushing remains weak. Lonte likes K-State as a home dog, citing Tech's strong D-line but potential rust from Morton. Griffin agrees, noting Manhattan's tough environment and potential line value. Moving to Oklahoma at Tennessee, Tennessee is -3, total 57. Lonte calls it fair, citing Tennessee's underrated home-field edge and Oklahoma's elite but untested defense. Tennessee's offense, led by erratic but explosive playmakers, should expose Oklahoma's lack of offensive balance. He prefers Tennessee and leans under. Griffin questions why Tennessee's only a field-goal favorite at home, calling the line suspicious. Lonte points to market respect for Oklahoma's defense despite their struggles versus Ole Miss and believes Tennessee's speed and weapons make them the right side. Finally, Cincinnati visits Utah, Utah -8.5, total 56.5. Lonte praises Cincinnati's undervalued run, 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS, but warns about Utah QB Devin Dampier's status. Cincinnati can control the clock with their run game, while Utah's limited explosiveness favors the under. Griffin asks how competitiveness affects totals. Lonte prefers both teams to stick to their run-heavy identities, producing long drives and a smooth under. Best Bets: Lonte takes Cal +4 vs Virginia, noting UVA's lucky wins and travel fatigue, with Cal's efficiency and home-field edge key. Griffin backs K-State +7.5 vs Texas Tech, trusting their recent form and home edge against a shaky Tech QB situation. Both encourage listeners to use promo code PASS15 for $15 off at pregame.com and aim to extend their winning streak next week. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    Dream Recap - NFL Week 8

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 28, 2025 93:02


    RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers break down everything that happened for NFL Week 8. RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik, and Mackenzie Rivers recap NFL Week 8, beginning with RJ joking about bagels before diving into betting trends. They note that favorites dominated and spreads barely mattered, leaving teasers and parlays heavy on Kansas City exposure. Fezzik observes that this week's final scores were mostly fair reflections, without many misleading results. The trio then shift into a long discussion about gambling integrity, comparing insider sports info to stock-market crimes. RJ argues that injury and lineup leaks are like insider trading and should carry harsh penalties. They cite NBA and college cases—LeBron injury rumors, Billy Walters, trainers leaking info—and imagine coded Twitter “dead drops” for illicit tips. RJ stresses that while some data like “LeBron out” has modest betting value, when players underperform deliberately or fake participation it becomes true corruption. They call for severe lifetime bans for manipulating personal stats, while leaks should draw lighter suspensions. Prop-bet abuse and small limits follow; Fezzik suggests $200 caps to deter fixing. They praise monitoring systems such as U.S. Integrity that now flag irregular betting instantly, citing the caught Alabama baseball coach. RJ says AI and DraftKings-style tracking would have exposed Donaghy within weeks. After that, they pivot to NFL: criticizing Harbaugh and the Ravens' handling of Lamar Jackson's surprise absence, speculating that transparency rules need enforcement. They analyze that game, calling the 30-16 Ravens win a “phony final” where Baltimore overperformed. Next comes Tampa Bay's misleading 22-3 over New Orleans—“ten-three at best,” Fezzik says—before RJ celebrates a same-game-parlay win. They review the Jets-Bengals comeback, noting lucky two-point conversions and that modern analytics justify going for two down eight. They dissect Bills, Giants, Steelers, and Packers games, emphasizing how late-game yardage can distort stats. RJ calls Cincinnati's defense “donezo.” They highlight teams awful versus the run (Giants, Bengals, Ravens) and conclude Pittsburgh's defense is overrated. Green Bay's D, by contrast, grades top five by EPA. The pair debate coaching: RJ says O'Connell is top five but mysteriously poor in night games, while Fezzik defends him. They agree the Vikings' O-line injuries keep them fragile. Closing out, they praise Belichick's Patriots for exposing Cleveland's travel defense, mock Dallas's showboating after Denver's blowout, and observe that great offense vs. great defense matchups often yield one-sided results. The show ends with schedule notes for next week's taping and RJ joking about his underdog pick and podcast timing. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    UFC 321 - Aspinall Vs. Gane !!

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 25, 2025 56:43


    SleepyJ and MeanGene talk betting for the entire main card of UFC 321. Sleepy J and Mean Gene break down the entire UFC 321 main card from Abu Dhabi in a fast-paced betting preview. They open with their best bet—Azamat Mirzakhanov over Aleksandar Rakić—calling him the hungrier fighter with knockout power and better fight IQ while questioning Rakić's motivation and durability after a long layoff. They both see Mirzakhanov's aggression, southpaw power, and confidence carrying him through, especially overseas where judges may favor pressure and damage. They next debate Jailton Almeida vs Alexander Volkov: Sleepy J likes the veteran Volkov's size, balance, and cardio at dog odds, while Gene sides with Almeida for his submission skills and athletic upside but warns of cardio issues if it goes late. In the bantamweight bout, they tackle Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista. Sleepy J grabs Bautista at +440 just for the value, citing his streak and toughness, but admits Umar likely wins; Gene breaks down Umar's title-fight loss to Merab Dvalishvili, the broken hand, his elite grappling, and motivation to reclaim the title, calling him a “guaranteed” parlay piece even at –600. Sleepy J then drops a promo code before they preview the co-main—Mackenzie Dern vs Virna Jandiroba—for the vacant strawweight title. Gene picks Dern, citing her improved striking, world-class jiu-jitsu, and UFC marketing push but admits her wrestling and tendency to crumble under bright lights are concerns; he expects a submission or decision win if she stays composed. Sleepy J counters with Jandiroba, highlighting her five-fight win streak over names like Angela Hill and Marina Rodriguez and the revenge angle from losing to Dern years ago, arguing the line is off and that Dern is being overvalued for marketability. Finally, they dive deep on the heavyweight title fight—Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane. Sleepy J sees both as elite athletes but leans Aspinall and bets the over 1.5 rounds, thinking both start cautiously; he views Aspinall as the next long-term champ once he beats Gane. Gene delivers his most confident take ever, calling Aspinall a generational heavyweight—fast, technical, powerful, and mentally tougher—and insists Gane's poor ground game, low fight IQ, and quit factor from the Jon Jones fight will doom him. He predicts Aspinall by submission and urges listeners to parlay him at –300 to –400 or take “inside the distance” at –275 as safer value. The show closes with Sleepy J praising Gene's conviction, both agreeing Aspinall rules the division unless Jon Jones returns for legacy money, and teasing an extended episode for UFC 322, which they expect to be one of the best cards in years, urging fans to follow them on X and use promo code TOM20 at Pregame dot com for 20% off. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    NFL Week 8 Player Props !!

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 24, 2025 41:07


    Munaf Manji and SleepyJ dive into NFL Week 8 player props. Description: NFL Week 8 is here and @MunafManji teams up with @SleepyJ to break down their top player props, best bets, and anytime touchdown scorers across the weekend slate! From Daniel Jones' pass attempts to Bijan Robinson's rushing + receiving yard total, the guys hit every position — QB, RB, WR, and TE — with stats, trends, and betting logic you can trust.

    World Series Game 1 Preview !!

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 24, 2025 42:51


    Munaf Manji adn Griffin Warner talk World Series betting for Game 1. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    Dream Podcast - NFL Week 8 THE PICKS !!

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 23, 2025 85:11


    RJ bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL betting for week 8. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    CFB Week 9 Preview + Best Bets !!

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 22, 2025 36:25


    Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith talk CFB Week 9 betting. Offense play fast, defense swarm and tackle, out-block, out-hit, out-hustle, leave no doubt tonight. Welcome to the Pregame.com College Football Podcast; Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith recap last week's bets, one-and-one overall. Griffin laments Alabama-Tennessee over missing by 1.5 points; Lonte says it was still the right handicap. Arkansas barely covered against A&M, but a win's a win. Transitioning to Week 9, Griffin vents about Texas surviving Kentucky in overtime, clinging to playoff hopes despite a sputtering offense led by Arch Manning. Lonte defends Manning's potential but notes he's struggling behind an injured line and inconsistent weapons; Texas' defense elite but the offense stagnant. Next, they preview Ole Miss +5 at Oklahoma. Lonte worries OU quarterback John Metier isn't healthy enough for deep throws, leaning OU and the under, expecting Oklahoma's defense to dictate and Ole Miss to feel a hangover from blowing a 9-point lead at Georgia. Griffin agrees it's defense-driven and wonders whether back-to-back road trips doom the Rebels. Then Kansas State +2.5 at Kansas: Lonte wants K-State at +3, notes both off bye weeks, K-State trending up with a strong run game versus Kansas' weak rush defense. Over 57 also appealing with both offenses capable. Griffin points out Kansas State's pattern of close games and home-field edge from the Jayhawks' new stadium atmosphere. Next, Missouri at Vanderbilt (-2.5): both surprised how competitive Vandy's become. Lonte likes the Commodores at home, praising coach Clark Lea's culture shift and Barton Simmons' roster building. Mizzou coming off back-to-back emotional games and travel; Vandy's defense shaky on late downs but the run game and energy trending up. Griffin jokes about ESPN calling their LSU win a “thumping,” agrees Vandy controlled the game and didn't rush the field. Both like Vanderbilt and the over, expecting a 40-ish shootout. Finally, Texas A&M -2.5 at LSU: Lonte loves LSU, especially if line hits +3. Brian Kelly has lost only one home night game; the Tigers' defense solid though the offense lacks rhythm. A&M banged up with back-to-back road trips, while LSU just needs to stay on schedule and run efficiently. Griffin reads angry texts from an LSU alum demanding Kelly's firing, joking that fan unrest may be a perfect betting signal for a home-dog bounce. Both think LSU live to win outright in Death Valley. Wrapping up, they plug promo code CATCH20 for $20 off a football-access package, noting Griffin's birthday Oct 27 and thanking listeners for staying with them through 10 weeks. Best bets: Lonte takes Michigan State +14 vs Michigan, trusting Sparty's defense and rivalry motivation, noting Michigan struggles laying big road numbers; Griffin grabs Vanderbilt -2.5 vs Missouri, trusting the Commodores' form and Mizzou's fatigue. They sign off: follow @XXLanteXX and @TheRealAndScorchingWarner for Week 10 updates, promising more college-football insight next Tuesday on the Pregame.com Podcast. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    NBA Wednesday Preview + Best Bets !!

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 22, 2025 44:59


    Munaf Manji and Mackenzie Rivers break down the opening games for the NBA season on Wednesday. Best bets as always. Munaf Manji opens the RJ Bell's Dream Preview NBA podcast, back from being under the weather and ready for the new season. With 13 games on Wednesday's slate, he and Mackenzie Rivers break down four key matchups, offering sides, totals, and best bets. They begin with the Cleveland Cavaliers at Madison Square Garden facing the New York Knicks. The Cavs are 1.5-point favorites with Darius Garland out, DeAndre Hunter questionable, and Max Strus recovering from foot surgery. The Knicks are missing Josh Hart and Mitchell Robinson, while Karl-Anthony Towns is questionable with a quad strain. Mackenzie likes the Cavs, citing their improved offense, depth, and consistency, noting that even without Garland they're better structured and cohesive. He argues the Knicks' injury list and new coaching approach create uncertainty, favoring Cleveland's early-season form. Munaf agrees, expecting Donovan Mitchell to shine and dominate offensively, particularly with the Knicks lacking frontcourt strength. Both lean slightly toward the over at 227.5, anticipating a strong Cavs offensive showing. Next, they preview the 76ers visiting the Celtics, Boston favored by 2.5. With Paul George, Jared McCain, and Trenton Watford out for Philly and Jason Tatum sidelined for Boston, Mackenzie sees both teams uncertain but leans Sixers due to Joel Embiid's presence, citing his offseason conditioning and potential resurgence. Munaf shares optimism for Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, predicting a big game and slight Sixers edge against Boston's thin frontcourt. For the Spurs at Mavericks matchup, Dallas is -2.5, with key absences including De'Aaron Fox, Kelly Olynyk, and Jeremy Sochan for San Antonio and Kyrie Irving, Daniel Gafford, and Dante Exum for Dallas. Mackenzie leans Spurs, expecting Victor Wembanyama to impress against Anthony Davis, while acknowledging Dallas's experience advantage. They debate rookie Cooper Flagg's outlook, agreeing he's talented but unlikely to have a historically impactful rookie season, noting his youth and the rarity of immediate dominance. Munaf adds that Flaggs' Rookie of the Year odds are overvalued given his supporting cast. They touch on Dallas as a trendy Western Conference pick, with Mackenzie calling it “a hipster choice” but doubting their title chances given chemistry and reliance on a rookie. Munaf concurs, seeing potential but too many variables. Wrapping up, they promote the “Beat Dave Esler NBA Contest” at pregame.com, with $1,000 in prizes and a $75-off code (NBA75) for Mackenzie's full-season picks package. In best bets, Mackenzie doubles down on Cavaliers -1.5, emphasizing matchup dominance, cohesion, and depth. Munaf's best bet is the Chicago Bulls +4.5 vs. Detroit, citing preseason sharpness, defensive improvement, and Detroit's injuries and lack of reliable scoring beyond Cade Cunningham. Mackenzie agrees, backing dogs early-season trends. They close with light banter about gas prices and Munaf's Houston connections before signing off, urging listeners to subscribe and enjoy opening week of the NBA season. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    NBA Opening Night Double-Header Preview + Best Bets !!

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 21, 2025 70:34


    SleepyJ and Mackenzie Rivers talk opening night NBA and much more. The guys also give out the first agreed upon player prop best bet !! SleepyJ hosts RJ Bell's Dream Preview for NBA opening night with Mackenzie Rivers. They discuss title odds, awards, and team outlooks. Oklahoma City opens as favorite at +200, and Mackenzie argues they're slightly undervalued given age curves and experience, citing SGA's playoff performance and team growth. Sleepy admits underrating OKC last year due to small-market bias, learning that team cohesion beats star power. They move to other contenders: Mackenzie likes Cleveland's continuity but questions their playoff ceiling; Sleepy doubts Donovan Mitchell's leadership and depth, calling the Cavs regular-season strong but playoff vulnerable. They debate Mitchell's limitations as a facilitator and team chemistry. Sleepy shifts to Houston, citing VanVleet's injury but optimism around Durant, Thompson, and Sengun. Mackenzie praises Durant's adaptability but notes Phoenix's example of misfit stars, still bullish on Houston's upside. Sleepy predicts Rockets could shock people and offers a bold take: betting on Philadelphia and Joel Embiid for MVP at 150-1 and title at 35-1. He argues Embiid looks rejuvenated and motivated by disrespect. Mackenzie agrees, calling those odds insulting and noting Embiid's elite stats despite limited games. They analyze how Philly could rival Knicks or Cavs if healthy. Then they examine bottom teams: Washington, Utah, Brooklyn, and Chicago. Both agree the Wizards are awful, but Sleepy also thinks the Bulls may implode, predicting a rebuild. Mackenzie critiques Chicago's poor contracts and lack of direction since Derrick Rose's injury. Sleepy sees Brooklyn outperforming its 19.5 win total. Transitioning to opening night bets, they preview Houston at OKC. Mackenzie's power ratings made OKC -7.5 but adjusts to -5.5 with Jalen Williams out, leaning Rockets slightly. Sleepy thinks OKC still reliable, given consistency and home edge. They discuss player props—Sleepy leans under KD 23.5 points, expecting him to defer to young teammates; Mackenzie initially leans over but concedes the market's caution. Next, Warriors at Lakers: LeBron's absence moves the line from Lakers -3.5 to Warriors -2.5. Mackenzie analyzes the line evolution, doubts L.A.'s defensive narrative, and argues the Warriors remain superior. He critiques media bias inflating Lakers' perception and calls Warriors -2 a fair play, making it his best bet. Sleepy agrees, taking Luka Doncic (now on Lakers) over 30.5 points, predicting he'll shoulder offense in LeBron's absence. They debate whether LeBron's rest is strategic “LeBron to the rescue” PR timing, likely returning in late November. Mackenzie estimates Lakers around 43–44 wins, under the 46.5 total. They close with promo code NBA25 for 25% off pregame.com. Sleepy endorses Mackenzie as the top NBA handicapper, praising his discipline and analytics. Both recall strong past results and share their agreed prop bet: Warriors' Jonathan Kuminga over 20.5 points, rebounds, and assists, believing he'll step up under bright lights in L.A. They end optimistic for a profitable NBA season and sign off encouraging listeners to enjoy opening night. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    Dream Recap - NFL Week 7

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 20, 2025 80:46


    RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers recap NFL Week 7. RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers recap NFL Week 7 in a fast-paced conversation mixing betting insights, analytics and humor. RJ opens by promoting Pregame's NBA season package and a special Mackenzie Rivers deal, emphasizing his 56.6% documented NBA win rate. They then analyze the Giants-Broncos game, where Denver made a historic comeback from an 18-point deficit. Fezzik argues the Giants' aggressive late-game strategy was reasonable despite media criticism, while RJ compares it to the infamous Falcons-Patriots Super Bowl collapse, concluding that both conservative and aggressive play have risks. The trio examine statistical measures like yards per play, win share, and “garbage time” adjustments, agreeing context matters more than raw stats. They shift to other matchups: the Rams' “phony blowout” over Jacksonville, where stats misled; Miami-Cleveland, where weather and turnovers defined the Browns' win; and Patriots-Titans, where quarterback hand size and fumble tendencies hurt Tennessee. They debate young QB evaluations, noting Drake May's rise to third in combined PFF/QBR rankings, arguing he's surpassed Jaden Daniels and could rival Burrow or Lamar Jackson in value given his youth and contract. RJ cautions against premature hype after short sample sizes like C.J. Stroud's rookie surge, while Fezzik defends updating priors quickly. They discuss the 49ers' quarterback situation—whether Brock Purdy's success reflects him or Kyle Shanahan's system—and criticize GM John Lynch for overpaying veterans. RJ contrasts San Francisco's generosity with Kansas City's and New England's frugality, calling the latter model more sustainable. They review league power ratings using yards per play, noting surprising leaders like Seattle and Denver and questioning whether such metrics truly capture team strength. The Chiefs' demolition of the Raiders sparks debate over coaching continuity, situational creativity, and overreliance on one big win to justify Super Bowl favoritism. Fezzik praises Mahomes' intelligence but laments other teams' lack of innovation, attributing KC's success to organizational stability. They analyze Baltimore's inflated market rating, Chicago's surprising offensive efficiency despite defensive woes, and Indianapolis' quietly elite yards-per-play stats. The crew criticizes the Jets' dysfunction, comparing them unfavorably to Detroit's slow but steady rebuild under Dan Campbell, citing ownership and coaching instability as root causes. Fezzik rants about Dallas Cowboys' “showboating” and lack of discipline, prompting RJ to mock his old-school sensibilities while they segue into Philly's adaptability and Minnesota's quarterback uncertainty with J.J. McCarthy's injuries. They close by evaluating team quality via cumulative point margins in losses, with Green Bay and Denver ranking highest in “close-loss resilience.” RJ highlights Arizona's competitiveness despite poor results and looks ahead to Houston's upcoming test as an underrated statistical power. The show ends on a brisk note, promising a Thursday morning release and teasing deeper analytics in future episodes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    Dream Podcast - NFL Week 7 THE PICKS !!

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 17, 2025 146:30


    RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL Week 7 betting and more. RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers break down NFL Week 7 from a sports-betting angle, blending statistical analysis, market movement insight and handicapping philosophy. They open by noting season-long trends in scoring and defense and how rule interpretations and injuries have shaped totals. Fezzik details key situational edges such as travel spots, rest advantages and weather, while RJ frames the discussion around market inefficiencies and public versus sharp money influence. They debate notable lines like Chiefs-Chargers, Ravens-Browns and Eagles-Dolphins, highlighting how early-week numbers shifted after injury reports and power-rating updates. Mackenzie adds historical database trends supporting underdogs off low-scoring wins and teams playing second straight road games. They explore coaching mismatches, quarterback efficiency metrics, EPA per play and the value of teasers in tight spreads. The crew discusses how to price quarterback uncertainty and the growing variance from backup play across the league. Fezzik offers his best bets — a first-half total under in Browns-Colts based on pace and defensive matchups, and a look-ahead spot fading a team off an emotional prime-time win. RJ emphasizes betting timing, arguing that getting ahead of key number moves is as valuable as the pick itself. They conclude with meta-analysis on how the market reacts to data driven narratives versus subjective media takes, reinforcing Pregame's theme of “betting truth over talk.” Each segment blends quantitative handicapping with storytelling about motivation, momentum and public perception, and the show ends with Fezzik tracking contest records and RJ inviting listeners to compare their power ratings to the market close. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    NFL Week 7 Player Props + Agreed Pick !!

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 17, 2025 38:41


    Munaf Manji and SleepyJ talk NFL Week 7 player props. Munaf Manji hosts RJ Bell's Dream Preview Week 7 Props episode with Sleepy J, recapping the Bengals-Steelers Thursday night shootout and Joe Flacco's resurgence before diving into their best player props. Both agree on quarterback Jaden Daniels over 1.5 passing touchdowns at -120 against Dallas, citing the Cowboys' busted coverages and a 54.5 total that implies heavy scoring. Sleepy's running back prop is Bijan Robinson over 121.5 rushing and receiving yards versus the 49ers, expecting a huge game with linebacker Fred Warner sidelined. Munaf counters with Quinshon Judkins over 85.5 rushing yards versus Miami, predicting a ground-heavy game due to bad weather and the Dolphins' porous run defense. For wide receivers, Sleepy likes Courtland Sutton over 56.5 receiving yards, noting his consistent target share and the Giants' tendency to surrender explosive plays. Munaf takes Jackson Smith-Njigba longest reception over 26.5 yards versus Houston, trusting his knack for separation and the Texans' vulnerable secondary. Sleepy's tight end play is Jets' Mason Taylor over 41.5 receiving yards against Carolina, projecting volume with Garrett Wilson likely out and the Panthers ranking worst versus tight ends. Munaf mirrors the logic with Buccaneers' Cade Otton over 41.5 yards versus Detroit, expecting elevated usage amid injuries to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Touchdown props: Sleepy backs Saquon Barkley (-115) to score as the Eagles return to a run-first identity; Munaf picks Washington's Jakorian Merritt (-125) to find the end zone versus Dallas and sprinkles on CeeDee Lamb (+115) on the other side. Their agreed best bet: Texans QB CJ Stroud over 223.5 passing yards Monday night against Seattle, supported by recent trends showing QBs regularly topping this number versus the Seahawks, Seattle's strong run defense forcing Houston to throw, and injuries in Seattle's secondary. Sleepy notes Stroud's protection has improved, making Houston's passing attack viable. Both expect the Texans to stay competitive behind Stroud's arm. They wrap by promoting Pregame.com's coupon code “PROPS20” for $20 off a month of football all-access, highlighting hot streaks from Fezzik, Spartan, GoodFella, and others. Munaf closes by stressing the ongoing momentum of the NFL, NBA, and NHL seasons and thanking listeners for supporting the show. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    CFB Week 8 Preview + Best Bets !!

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 14, 2025 29:58


    Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith break down college football week 8 from a betting perspective. College Football Week 8 (Griffin Warner & Lonte Smith) Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith return on the College Football Podcast from RJ Bell's Dream Preview to analyze four key Week 8 matchups and share best bets. They recap last week's near misses—Griffin hit the Texas-Oklahoma under, while Lonte's Arizona pick lost in overtime—and discuss how betting luck swings in college football. The show opens with Ole Miss vs Georgia, where Lonte favors the under 54.5 due to Georgia's second-half defensive dominance and Ole Miss's inconsistency. He notes Georgia isn't “elite” this season, lacking pass rush and explosive offense, and predicts a defensive battle with potential value on Georgia's second-half line. Next, they shift to USC at Notre Dame. Lonte outlines USC's cluster injuries at running back and offensive line and praises Notre Dame's improving defense, which hasn't allowed a second-half point in three games. Despite liking the Trojans' passing attack, he favors the over 62 and leans Notre Dame to cover –9 given the matchup and cross-country travel. Griffin questions why Notre Dame deserves such a big spread, and Lonte credits their trench play and balance under Marcus Freeman. The third game features Tennessee vs Alabama, with Lonte backing the Vols +8, expecting their offense to exploit Alabama's reduced pass rush and hang around in a high-scoring affair. Griffin takes the over 58.5 as his best bet, anticipating a shift from Nick Saban's defensive identity to an offensive shootout under Kalen DeBoer. Finally, they preview Utah vs BYU, the “Holy War,” where Lonte likes Utah –3.5 on the road, calling BYU's recent wins misleading and praising Utah's elite run defense and revenge motivation after losing the last two meetings. They end by promoting Pregame.com's GOAL50 code for $50 off a 30-day All-Access plan and highlight Steve Fezzik's college football run. Lonte's best bet is Arkansas +7.5 as a live home underdog versus Texas A&M, citing injuries to Aggie playmakers and improved Razorbacks offense. The hosts close by thanking listeners and promising more insights next week on the Straight Outta Vegas AM feed. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    Dream Recap - NFL Week 6

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 14, 2025 87:35


    RJ Bell and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL week 6 recap. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    NFL Week 6 Player Props !!

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 10, 2025 46:24


    Munaf Manji and SleepyJ talk NFL Player prop betting for Week 6. RJ Bell's Dream Preview returned for NFL Week 6 with hosts Munaf Manji and SleepyJ diving into player prop bets, storylines, and betting insights. The episode opened with the duo reflecting on a surprising Thursday night upset where the Giants beat the Eagles. SleepyJ attributed the result to differing team mindsets—Philadelphia's lack of hunger versus New York's youthful energy and confidence. Munaf noted how rookie quarterback Jackson Dart and running back Cam Scadaboo have injected life into the Giants' offense, while Philadelphia's issues with offensive rhythm and underperforming stars like Saquon Barkley continue to raise concerns. Transitioning to their betting picks, SleepyJ began with a bold play on Browns rookie quarterback Dylan Gabriel to surpass 183.5 passing yards against a weak Steelers secondary, citing multiple mediocre quarterbacks who had already torched Pittsburgh for over 200 yards. Munaf supported the pick, agreeing that game script and defensive inefficiency favored the over. Munaf's first prop focused on Justin Herbert surpassing 19.5 rushing yards versus Miami, explaining that the Chargers' injuries on the offensive line and backfield would force Herbert to scramble more. SleepyJ then paired that with Hassan Haskins over 37.5 rushing yards, arguing that Los Angeles would emphasize the run against a historically bad Dolphins rush defense. The two also discussed Rico Dowdle of the Panthers, taking him to exceed 77.5 rushing yards versus his former team, the Cowboys, driven by motivation and a struggling Dallas defense. Their conversation then shifted to wide receivers. SleepyJ targeted Tetairoa McMillan of Carolina to go over 70.5 receiving yards, calling for a breakout performance against the Cowboys' porous pass defense. Munaf agreed, noting McMillan's consistent target share and developing chemistry with Bryce Young. Munaf's receiver pick was Travis Hunter of Jacksonville over 36.5 receiving yards against the Seahawks, expecting increased involvement due to Seattle's depleted secondary and growing rapport with Trevor Lawrence. SleepyJ added depth with tight end props—Darren Waller and Hunter Henry both to go over their yardage totals, plus a sleeper mention of Rams wideout Tutu Atwell against Baltimore's injured secondary. Munaf closed the section with Tucker Kraft of the Packers over 46.5 receiving yards, leaning on the Bengals' weakness versus tight ends. The hosts then moved to touchdown props: SleepyJ chose Kyren Williams of the Rams to score, citing heavy usage, while Munaf picked Michael Pittman Jr. at +150 odds, expecting him to thrive against Arizona's defense. For their joint best bet, they agreed on Josh Jacobs of Green Bay over 78.5 rushing yards versus the Bengals, predicting a high-volume workload against one of the league's softest run defenses. They wrapped by reminding listeners to use the Dime10 promo code at pregame.com for discounts and teased next week's episode, confident their deep-cut prop selections—though unconventional—offered significant betting value. The show mixed humor, sharp statistical insight, and situational analysis, showcasing both handicappers' commitment to finding undervalued players and exploiting weak defenses in Week 6's NFL slate. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    Dream Podcast - NFL Week 6 THE PICKS !!

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 9, 2025 105:26


    RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL betting for Week 6. (RJ Bell 0:05–4:28) RJ Bell opened by calling it their most pick-heavy show yet and promoted Pregame's 90-day all-access deal, covering every NFL and college pick through mid-January plus NBA from Mackenzie Rivers, who's sustained 56.9% wins over four seasons. Steve Fezzik is up 52 units in college football, Good Fella up 20 in all sports, making this the best seasonal value. (Steve Fezzik 4:29–5:07) Fezzik's best bet: Detroit +2.5 at Kansas City. He rated the Lions 1.5 points better on power numbers, calling it a “much better spot” since Detroit coasted versus Cincinnati while Kansas City drained energy Monday night. (RJ Bell 5:08–10:31) Bell warned Detroit's banged-up secondary could be exposed but agreed the line overrates the Chiefs. He cited Dan Campbell's only coaching weakness—two straight road games five points below his usual ATS—but Fezzik said travel was short and rest ample. Bell's data showed Detroit faced the 27th-easiest schedule, KC the 7th-hardest, suggesting possible inflation, though both agreed the Lions' offense remained elite. (Mackenzie Rivers 13:10–13:15 to RJ Bell 20:02) Rivers mentioned KC's bounce-back narrative; Fezzik described waiting for +3 odds, sparking debate on betting exchanges, line movement, and same-game parlays. (RJ Bell 21:54–29:58) Bell's top pick: Tennessee team total under 18.5. He predicted a post-win letdown, called Tennessee “the NFL's worst offense” by drive-success rate (61%), and leaned on Pete Carroll's 3-loss rebound trend—opponents score 6 points below average. Fezzik added that teams winning twice as 5-point dogs “fall on their face” the next week. (Mackenzie Rivers 34:44–35:26) Rivers confirmed the trend (84-44 fading record since 2012) and EPA data placing Tennessee last (-36). (RJ Bell 35:46–43:07) Rivers and Fezzik pivoted to Cleveland-Pittsburgh, backing the Steelers off a bye versus a Browns squad returning from London. Bell cited Kevin Stefanski's 3-12 ATS mark on consecutive road games (-9.3 margin) and Tomlin's 18-1 straight-up home record vs Cleveland. (Fezzik 43:27–45:55) Fezzik next played Washington –4.5 over Chicago, noting a QB mismatch (Daniels vs Caleb Williams) and power-rating edge. Bell detailed Chicago's “luck-driven” offense ranking 22nd and the NFL's worst defense allowing 57% first-downs after second down. (RJ Bell 55:17–1:02:04) Bell's next bet: Jets-Denver under 43.5, arguing New York's scoring stats are inflated by weak opponents; the London trip and poor coaching amplify offensive risk. (Rivers 1:02:23–1:06:15) Rivers backed New England –3.5 vs New Orleans, citing EPA (+55 vs –something like 30th rank) and trench mismatches. Bell cautioned most bettors can't exploit live-wager edges Fezzik described. (Fezzik 1:15:24–1:17:19) He leaned Atlanta +4.5 vs Buffalo off a bye; Bell replied that McDermott-coached favorites off losses are 16-8-1 ATS (+5.2 margin). (RJ Bell 1:21:09–1:24:04) Bell's marquee pick: San Francisco –3 over Tampa Bay. He cited Todd Bowles' 0-6 ATS record after upset wins and a look-ahead spot to Detroit, arguing Tampa's coin-flip victories and public hype make the 49ers undervalued. (Fezzik 1:25:06–1:26:32) Fezzik's prop: Carolina RB Rico Dowdle rushing-yards over, expecting starter Hubbard's calf injury to boost usage against Dallas, his old team. (RJ Bell 1:28:40–1:32:37) Both liked Seattle over Jacksonville and Miami-Chargers under 43.5, citing O-line injuries, Tyreek Hill's absence, and Jim Harbaugh's 14-2 to-the-under trend when totals drop ≥3 points (–9 ppg). (Fezzik 1:33:07–1:34:22 to RJ Bell 1:37:58) They closed with Indianapolis first-half –4 over Arizona, factoring Kyler Murray's knee injury and reduced mobility. Bell added a division-futures hedge: buy Pittsburgh, offset later with Baltimore. Fezzik ended the packed Week 6 episode with his trademark farewell: “Be careful out there.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    CFB Week 7 Preview + Best Bets !!

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 8, 2025 34:01


    Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith talk college football betting for Week 7. Best bets as always. (0:06 - 0:30, Speaker 3) The show opened with a fierce call to action: “Offense, play fast. Defense, swarm and tackle.” The repeated demand to “Leave no doubt tonight!” captured urgency and confidence, setting a competitive tone. (0:30 - 2:20, Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith) Griffin Warner introduced the Week 7 betting breakdown, starting with Texas' collapse. Lonte Smith said, “They got Sark and the offensive line coach arguing,” pointing to dysfunction and lack of rhythm despite defensive effort. He warned that in the SEC, “You can't bury yourself in tears—you've got to get back up.” (2:20 - 4:49) Reviewing bets, Smith admitted his UAB pick failed because “they were down six starters on defense.” Warner added that early bets can miss late-week injury news, stressing patience in timing wagers. (4:50 - 11:40, Oklahoma vs. Texas) Warner previewed the Red River rivalry, noting Texas dropped from -3.5 to -1. Smith said, “It's not all Arch, but he's the quarterback,” critiquing poor line play and imbalance. With OU's Mateer possibly returning, he said, “With a healthy Mateer, OU minus one and a half.” Expecting strong defenses, Smith favored the under 43: “Both teams can't run the football.” Warner, a Texas fan, recalled painful past matchups and admitted, “I've been afraid of this game all year.” (12:53 - 15:51, Oregon vs. Indiana) Smith said Indiana struggles on the road, contrasting with Oregon's “championship-caliber” balance. He called Oregon's Rose Bowl loss “an outlier” and predicted their athleticism and QB mobility would overwhelm Indiana. (17:47 - 23:11, Arizona State vs. Utah) Utah was a 5.5-point home favorite. Smith highlighted dominance up front: “Their trenches are some of the best in the country.” Arizona State ranked poorly in rushing defense and third-down success, while Utah was 4th in rush success rate. He predicted a 10-point Utah win. (23:51 - 26:40, South Florida vs. North Texas) Warner joked about North Texas canceling classes for tailgating. Smith called it an “elimination game” in the AAC, favoring North Texas due to “defensive improvement and home-field edge.” He noted South Florida's weak run game and sloppy turnovers. (28:51 - 31:09, Best Bets) Smith's pick was Arizona +2.5, citing top-five defensive metrics and calling BYU “a bit of a fraud.” Warner took Texas–Oklahoma under 43, quipping, “I'm rooting for punts.” Their closing exchange mixed data, humor, and insight—showcasing sharp analysis built on stats, context, and conviction. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    Dream Recap - NFL Week 5

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 7, 2025 79:54


    RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL recap for Week 5. [RJ Bell (0:06–0:20)] opened in disbelief over Arizona's collapse. [Steve Fezzik (0:20–1:05)] vented, “I had Arizona and Indy… easiest winner ever. And yet somehow it lost,” showing frustration with improbable losses. [Bell (1:15–1:52)] called it “two or three things that were a hundred to one each,” defining its absurdity. [Fezzik (2:24–3:08)] blamed player arrogance—“Hand the ball to the referee”—as Arizona, up 21–6, fumbled twice, turning a 99% win chance into defeat. [Rivers (3:08–3:24)] confirmed a 98% win probability even post-turnover. [Bell (5:08–6:04)] said Arizona's average win rate was 89%, second-most unlikely loss in a decade. [Fezzik (6:29–7:48)] slammed coaching “incompetence” for running three times and punting, gifting Tennessee a comeback. [Bell (7:49–9:37)] added metrics: –24 kickoff yards, –7 in turnovers plus sacks, yet 45% success rate vs Tennessee's 37%, proving superior play undone by mistakes. [Fezzik (9:53–10:15)] said Arizona repeats errors; [Bell (10:33–11:04)] tied that to Kyler Murray's weak leadership. [Fezzik (11:05–11:59)] contrasted him with Mahomes: “Mahomes dives on the ball… Kyler stands there,” showing passion vs passivity. [Bell (11:59–12:19)] moved to Baltimore's meltdown vs Houston. [Fezzik (12:19–14:25)] admitted his once–No.1 Ravens were “five points worse than average.” [Rivers (15:18–15:27)] cited Stroud's 99.5 QBR; [Bell (15:27–16:09)] added Houston's 61.5% success vs Baltimore's 37%. [Fezzik (16:19–16:24)] cut Baltimore three points, raised Houston 1.5. [Bell (16:54–17:49)] noted Houston's average snap 16 yards closer to scoring—total domination. [Fezzik (17:49–18:14)] confirmed 400–200 yard edge. [Bell (18:26–18:44)] said elite defense plus average offense makes Houston “well above average.” [Fezzik (19:13–19:31)] shifted to Giants-Saints: “five straight turnovers.” [Bell (19:31–20:05)] said that gave New Orleans a 34-point edge. [Fezzik (20:12–20:17)] noted Saints' red-zone flaws but solid play. [Rivers (21:18–21:36)] said they've covered nearly every game. [Bell (22:14–22:56)] saw Giants QB Dart as “slightly below average passer, above-average runner.” [Fezzik (23:13–23:28)] predicted more rushing. [Fezzik (25:17–26:06)] said Seattle “should have won 38–35,” averaging nine yards per play but losing from turnovers. [Bell (26:37–26:57)] added success rates: Seattle 62%, Tampa 51%, both elite. [Fezzik (29:24–30:35)] noted Rams outgained San Francisco by 2.3 yards per play but failed twice inside the five. [Rivers (32:17–32:35)] described 49ers' “dink-and-dunk” control style. [Bell (32:59–33:11)] compared Purdy to Mac Jones—efficient but limited. [Fezzik (36:04–38:22)] highlighted Minnesota's trick-play win over Cleveland, 49% vs 39% success rate and seven explosive plays to three. [Fezzik (42:08–42:58)] analyzed Washington's easy win over Chargers, calling them “a sneaky contender.” [Bell (45:02–47:46)] praised Detroit's 37–24 rout of Cincinnati as a “wipeout,” citing +13 turnover points and +252 hidden yards. [Bell (49:59–50:43)] warned power ratings ignore style—Detroit dominates early, KC thrives late. [Fezzik (51:59–52:19)] said Philly-Denver was even statistically, but Sean Payton's bold two-point try flipped momentum. [Bell (55:56–56:38)] said it forced Philly from clock-control comfort. [Fezzik (57:29–57:47)] lamented fading stars Barkley and Henry losing burst. [Bell (59:42–59:56)] ended on Indianapolis's rise; [Fezzik (1:00:10–1:00:24)] said they “might be the best team.” [Bell & Fezzik (1:05:03–1:07:22)] agreed old coaches like Belichick and Carroll can't adapt to the fast-changing league. [Fezzik (1:11:19–1:11:54)] closed with betting advice: “Target 7.5-win teams with young coaches for Coach of the Year.” [Fezzik (1:13:36–1:16:49)] finished humorously, describing a month at a luxury gym as a short burst of energy—an apt metaphor for fleeting success and needed renewal. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    NFL Player Props - Week 5

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 3, 2025 45:20


    Munaf Manji and SleepyJ talk NFL player props for week 5. Munaf Manji (0:16 - 0:58) opened by welcoming listeners to the NFL Week 5 props edition, promising four picks each, touchdown props, and a final best bet. He highlighted last week's success going 3-1 and cashing Bo Nix's passing yards over, setting momentum for this week. SleepyJ (0:59 - 1:15) returned after a busy week, eager to deliver winners. Munaf (1:17 - 1:50) stressed their 3-1 record on best bets and shifted to quarterback props. SleepyJ (1:51 - 3:23) started with Tua Tagovailoa under 32.5 passing attempts, noting Miami's offense fares worse when Tua throws more, pointing to past losses tied to higher attempts. With Tyreek Hill out and Carolina better attacked on the ground, he expected “more HN, less Tua.” Munaf (3:23 - 6:51) agreed Miami should run more without Hill's deep threat. His QB prop was Baker Mayfield to throw an interception vs. Seattle, citing the Seahawks' ball-hawking defense that intercepted Purdy, Rodgers, and Murray twice each. He noted Mayfield threw three picks vs. Seattle in 2019 and another in 2023, making turnovers likely. SleepyJ (6:51 - 7:28) reinforced that without Mike Evans, Mayfield would struggle. Moving to running backs, SleepyJ (7:37 - 9:10) played Jordan Mason under 80.5 rushing + receiving yards against Cleveland, explaining the Browns' top-ranked run defense and Minnesota's depleted offensive line left Mason little chance. Munaf (9:10 - 12:37) supported this with stats: Browns allowing 60.5 rush yards per game and 2.29 per carry. His RB pick was Justice Hill over 14.5 receiving yards, noting Lamar Jackson's absence meant Cooper Rush would rely on checkdowns. Hill's snaps rose to 59% and he logged 41 yards last week, showing reliable production. SleepyJ (12:37 - 13:54) agreed, suggesting Hill could equal Henry's snaps. At wide receiver, SleepyJ (14:03 - 15:37) chose Garrett Wilson over 62.5 yards, citing Dallas' league-worst pass defense and Wilson's dominance with 38 team targets versus the next at six. Munaf (15:38 - 19:43) added Dallas allows 207 yards per game to WRs, worst in the NFL, and praised Wilson's opportunity. His WR pick was Courtland Sutton over 56.5 yards, pointing to chemistry with Bo Nix and recent big-yardage games. SleepyJ (19:44 - 21:17) highlighted Eagles rookie Quinyon Mitchell's struggles, making Sutton a strong matchup. At tight end, SleepyJ (21:28 - 23:49) doubled up with Trey McBride over 63.5 yards and Marvin Harrison Jr. over 50.5 yards for Arizona, arguing with RBs hurt, Kyler Murray would lean on them. Munaf (23:50 - 27:15) agreed, calling it a breakout spot. His TE pick was Sam LaPorta over 39.5 yards vs. Cincinnati, who allow 61 per game to TEs. SleepyJ (27:16 - 29:00) warned about blowout risk but leaned over. Munaf (29:00 - 30:14) emphasized Cincinnati's fragile psyche without Burrow. After promotions, SleepyJ (32:46 - 34:33) chose Alvin Kamara anytime TD vs. the Giants, noting his slump could rebound against a weak rush defense. Munaf (34:34 - 38:57) picked Quinton Johnson anytime TD for the Chargers, citing three scores in four games and Washington's poor defense. For their best bet, Munaf (38:57 - 40:41) gave Nico Collins over 72.5 yards vs. Baltimore, with back-to-back big games and Ravens' injury-riddled secondary. SleepyJ (40:41 - 40:40) added Collins could hit alt lines of 100+ easily, even 150 if the Ravens' holes were exposed. Munaf (40:41 - 41:38) confirmed Collins' alt yardage odds, locking in Texans WR Nico Collins over 72.5 as the official best bet. SleepyJ (41:39 - 42:02) closed by urging use of the promo code and predicting another winning week, while Munaf (42:02 - 42:19) signed off confident they'd improve to 4-1 on best bets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    Dream Podcast - NFL Week 5 THE PICKS !!

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 2, 2025 110:18


    RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL week 5 betting. Best bets as always. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    College Football Week 6 Preview + Best Bets !!

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 30, 2025 36:58


    Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith talk College Football betting for Week 6. The guys also give out best bets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    Dream Recap - NFL Week 4

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 30, 2025 78:33


    RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers recap NFL Week 4. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    NFL Player Props - Week 4

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 26, 2025 36:53


    Munaf Manji and Lonte Smith talk NFL Week 4 player props betting. [Munaf Manji] introduced props across positions. [Lonte Smith] began with Tua Tagovailoa over 243.5 yards Monday night, noting “he's averaged 254 against the Jets” and McDaniel will push him after Miami's 0-3 start. [Munaf Manji] agreed, adding urgency for Tua and coach jobs. His QB prop targeted Jordan Love's longest completion over 38.5, citing Dallas' defense surrendering multiple 40+ plays: “it just takes one pass.” [Lonte Smith] agreed, naming WR Golden as likely to hit. At RB, [Lonte Smith] chose Jameer Gibbs under 64.5, stressing Cleveland's rush defense at 57.3 yards allowed per game and Henry held to 11-for-23. [Munaf Manji] agreed, noting Browns allow only 2.25 yards per carry. His RB pick was Ashton Gentry over 63.5 vs Chicago, pointing to Bears' 5.34 YPC allowed, with Gibbs and Javonte Williams torching them. [Lonte Smith] called it Gentry's “coming out party.” At WR, [Lonte Smith] pushed Nico Collins over 71.5 yards, citing big games vs Tennessee's weak secondary and 8-for-104 last week. [Munaf Manji] doubled down, citing his home splits—70 yards and 16 TDs at home vs 54 and 4 on road—and Sneed's “who?” comment as bulletin-board fuel. At TE, [Lonte Smith] loved Hunter Henry over 40.5, calling it “my favorite play,” citing Panthers' struggles vs McBride and Strange, plus Henry's 23 team-leading targets and 8-for-90 line with 2 TDs. [Munaf Manji] agreed, saying the number is “a little low” and suggested ladder bets. They also mentioned Puka Nacua's steady 9+ targets weekly and Jackson Dart rushing overs at 34.5. For anytime TDs, [Lonte Smith] picked Woody Marks at +200, noting goal-line weakness in Tennessee and dual-threat usage. [Munaf Manji] picked Collins to score at +115, citing 14 TDs in 16 Houston home games, and Mahomes rushing TD at +340, warning it's “alarming” he leads KC in rushing but already has 2 TDs. Finally, both agreed the best bet is Bo Nix over 218.5 passing yards vs Cincinnati. [Munaf Manji] cited Bengals' weak pass defense: Flacco 290, Lawrence 271. He added Nix hit 219 and 3 TDs on them last year. [Lonte Smith] predicted “explosion” plays would push him over. They closed with consensus that Nix's passing over is week four's strongest prop, while Collins and Henry offer strong supporting plays. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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