Podcast appearances and mentions of fred harrison

Paul Shannon sits down with Logan Freeman (a.k.a. “Mr. Kansas City”) for a deep dive into the 18-year real estate cycle and how it shapes today's market. Drawing on the works of economists like Fred Harrison and Phil Anderson, Logan explains why land scarcity and speculative credit often drive real estate booms and busts. He also highlights how investors can prepare for what he calls a “winter's curse,” using historical cycles to spot new opportunities and avoid pitfalls. If you're looking to navigate the next few years in real estate with an eye on both history and strategy, this conversation offers an essential roadmap. Today's Episode Takeaways - The 18.6-Year Framework: Why land values, access to credit, and investor psychology create repeating upswings and contractions. - Ricardo's Law of Economic Rent: How scarce land resources drive speculation and shape “winner's curse” booms. - Historical Context: From 1993–2010's cycle to the 2025–2028 outlook, including the impact of debt maturities. - Preparing for Opportunities: Why managing liquidity, fixing long-term debt, and maintaining strong cash flows are Logan's focus. - Local vs. Macro: How city-level policy and development (like Kansas City's rebounds) can differ from national trends – and what it all means for your strategy. Disclaimer The content of this podcast is for informational purposes only. All host and participant opinions are their own. Investment in any asset, real estate included, involves risk, so use your best judgment and consult with qualified advisors before investing. You should only risk capital you can afford to lose. Remember that past performance is not indicative of future results. This podcast may contain paid advertisements or other promotional materials for real estate investment advisers, investment funds, and investment opportunities, which should not be interpreted as a recommendation, endorsement, or testimonial by PassivePockets, LLC or any of its affiliates. Viewers must conduct their own due diligence and consider their own financial situations before engaging with any of the advertised offerings, products, or services. PassivePockets, LLC disclaims all liability for direct, indirect, consequential, or other damages arising out of reliance on information and advertisements presented in this podcast.

Today's discussion comes from our most recent annual conference “Existential Crises: Is the Georgist Paradigm Part of the Solution?” and was recorded in July of 2024. For the next eleven weeks, our discussions will revolve around the polycrisis afflicting the globe with four subtopics. The first will be the four most important crises, followed by how Georgism can alleviate these crises, which will then be followed by how to make Georgism more politically palatable, and will conclude by discussing different Georgist policy solutions.  Our first panelist will be Mr. Fred Harrison, a long-time friend of the Henry George School, who will be discussing the four biggest threats emerging from the global polycrisis. Mr. Harrison received his bachelor's from Oxford University and his master's from the University of London. He is a veteran journalist who has served in multiple news agencies such as The People and Wellington Journal. In 1988 he became the Research Director of the Land Research Trust, London, and has advised several corporations and international governments on tax and economic policy. Fred places an emphasis on the housing market and its interaction with the economy as a whole. He is the author of many books, including The Corruption of Economics, The Power in the Land, and A Philosophy for a Fair Society, all of which critique mainstream economic thinking. Together, we discussed how the current tax system worsens inequality, why Georgist policies can reduce these inequalities, and Boston's stark disparities in life expectancy. To check out more of our content, including our research and policy tools, visit our website: https://www.hgsss.org/ --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/smart-talk-hgsss/support

Symposia is a longer-form podcast where we explore ideas from our previous seminars. Symposia will offer deeper dives on relevant issues to provide listeners with expansive insight. Whether you're an expert or just someone who wants to hear a different perspective, Symposia offers listeners a college-level lecture for everyone to learn from. We want all our listeners to find our discussion stimulating, and hope you walk away having learned something new.  Today's discussion comes from our most recent annual conference, “Existential Crises: Is the Georgist Paradigm Part of the Solution?”, and was recorded in July of 2024. For the next twelve weeks, our discussions will revolve around the polycrisis afflicting the globe with four subtopics. The first will be the four most important crises, followed by how Georgism can alleviate these crises, which will then be followed by how to make Georgism more politically palatable, and will conclude by discussing different Georgist policy solutions.  Our conference content will kick off with a keynote address from our long-time friend of the Henry George School, Mr. Fred Harrison. Mr. Harrison received his bachelor's from Oxford University and his master's from the University of London. He is a veteran journalist who has served in multiple news agencies such as The People and Wellington Journal. In 1988 he became the Research Director of the Land Research Trust, London, and has advised several corporations and international governments on tax and economic policy. Fred places an emphasis on the housing market and its interaction with the economy as a whole. He is the author of many books, including The Corruption of Economics, The Power in the Land, and A Philosophy for a Fair Society, all of which critique mainstream economic thinking. Together, we discussed how Henry George initiated a global reformist movement within politics and economics, how to reinvigorate the Georgist movement, and how this can reverse democratic backsliding around the world. To check out more of our content, including our research and policy tools, visit our website: https://www.hgsss.org/ --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/smart-talk-hgsss/support

Big changes in how we eat - plus, the satellite revolution in Australia's outback. We're live from The Australian's Global Food Forum.  Find out more about The Front podcast here. You can read about this story and more on The Australian's website or on The Australian's app. This episode of The Front is presented by Claire Harvey, produced by Stephanie Coombes and edited by Joshua Burton. The multimedia editor is Lia Tsamoglou and original music is composed by Jasper Leak.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comNext week, I'm putting out my top ten picks from the Weird S**t Investment Conference, so look out for that, and at the end of today's piece, there is also a short note on Condor Gold, which will be of interest to some readers.But we have a General Election coming up in the UK, and citizens of this once-great nation want to know how to protect what they have worked for from the incoming Labour Government, which, you can be sure, is going to be sniffing around like a spaniel on luggage in an airport. We now have the Labour Manifesto, so we can start to be a bit more specific than we were in part one of this series.I stress: this is only the manifesto. There is a long history of governments doing things they didn't mention in their manifestos or failing to honour manifesto commitments. Roosevelt's confiscation of Americans' gold is one example that springs to mind, but that might just be because I have just been writing about it. There are plenty of examples in the UK too, even with the current government - increases to National Insurance, the Covid money splurge, failures on renters' reform, home building, immigration pledges, social care, and so on. Circumstances change and so will pledges, especially with a Prime Minister who has quite a track record when it comes to changing tack. Do not be surprised by the surprises that are inevitably coming.The broad argument of part one is that the pound will continue to be debased. It will buy you a lot less in five years than it does now. Whether we will see the 33% declines in the pound's purchasing power we have seen since 2020, I'm not sure, but the way to hedge yourself is to own non-government money - gold and bitcoin.Labour has pledged to “keep mortgage rates low” and to “retain the 2% inflation target,” which means it will keep a lid on interest rates, or try to, especially with official inflation now having come down to 2%. That all furthers my argument that the pound will continue to lose purchasing power.Labour has a gazillion things it wants to spend money on, ranging from Great British Energy to new teachers, breakfast clubs, and increased NHS appointments, so it is going to need low rates. It has also said it plans to move the “current budget into balance” and “ensure debt is falling.” All I can say is good luck with that. No chance. Spending is going to increase, and, even with the inevitable currency debasement, it is going to need to find tax revenue too. That means higher taxes.But higher taxes where? Taxes, relative to GDP, are already at their highest levels since World War Two, and Labour has promised no increases in National Insurance, Income Tax rates, or VAT. It has also pledged to cap corporation tax at 25% throughout the Parliament.Some increased revenue, it says, will come from clamping down on tax avoidance and modernising HMRC. A lot easier said than done.The big unmentionables have been Council Tax, Capital Gains Tax, and Inheritance Tax. All three, I expect, will go up. Council Tax valuation bands are based on 1991 property prices. That is an obvious anachronism to “update,” though council tax goes to local coffers and Labour will be more interested in revenue at the national level. Even so, it is an obvious area of tax revenue growth. Not a lot you can do to avoid it, except move.Inheritance Tax, meanwhile, will not come down and will probably go up. It is, of course, morally wrong to want to pass the wealth you have earned and already paid taxes on to your heirs. Changes will be justified on the grounds of unearned wealth and exploit the politics of envy. The rate could rise to 50%, I suppose, while areas of relief - the seven-year gift rule, perhaps, the relief on main homes - could be removed. All I can say is plan early.Capital Gains Tax, meanwhile, is likely to rise. Starmer has avoided saying it won't. I expect to see it rise to levels concomitant with Income Tax with similar bands (i.e., 40% above £37k and 45% above £125k). The way to avoid this is by not transacting, which is what most will do unless they really have to, and so the effect of CGT rises will be market atrophy.Labour will also come after your pensions too - there is so much capital there - with those in the private sector likely to take a bigger hit than those in the state.There is also a lot of blurb about the launch of Great British Energy to “harness Britain's sun, wind and wave energy” with a windfall tax on oil and gas giants. That makes British oil and gas companies uninvestable. It says it will “deliver one hundred percent clean power by 2030,” though we know that clean power is neither clean nor green . They clearly haven't read their Alex Epstein, and it all means that essential fossil fuel will inevitably get more expensive, and the country will function less well as a result. Labour says it is going to reduce energy bills. Not possible without subsidies somewhere else, and these have to be paid for.The Housing MarketFollowers of Fred Harrison and the 18-year property cycle will note that Britain's housing market is heading towards a cycle high, with collapse starting in 2026. Perhaps that will be triggered by Labour's plans. It wants to fix planning and build a lot of social housing - that means a bet on builders and builders' merchants (Travis Perkins and Vistry, for example) might make sense, at least in the short run. There is a long history of governments failing to deliver on this, and I don't think Labour has any chance of meeting targets. If it comes anywhere close, it means Britain's housing stock is about to get even uglier.Labour's Freedom to Buy scheme, like Help to Buy, is just another means to pump more money into the housing market, and the general drift seems to be to subsidize at the bottom and tax at the top. It has ruled out Capital Gains Tax on your main residence, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it anyway. Meanwhile, Stamp Duty will continue, even if it means atrophy at the top end of the market. The attack on non-doms will also hit homes at the top end. For homes above £1 million, the costs of moving - high stamp duty especially, more if we get CGT too - just points to stagnation.Meanwhile, I expect the introduction of numerous schemes to protect tenants, which will only drive away landlords and end with higher rental costs.You know that I am a free-market guy, and I dislike on instinct market intervention, subsidy, and all the rest of it. All Labour's grand plans to encourage investment just reek of crony capitalism to me, so I tend to avoid, but I've no doubt that industrialists, who position themselves correctly, might make good money out of them. More on this after the election.My theory used to be this: that in the same way a Conservative Party that was so scared of the left-wing press became a social-democrat party, so will this Labour Government, scared of the right-wing press, end up lurching to the centre-right. I no longer see that. Labour is trying to present itself as centre-left, but the instinct is for government intervention and I see a lot more of it coming. The civil service, the Blob, and the government are theologically aligned and that is not good. It means they can progress their agenda. I'd love to be more optimistic, but, despite Starmer's purges, there is still a lot of socialist instinct in that party.Bottom line. Taxes are going to go up. Freedom is going to be eroded. The pound is going to lose purchasing power.If you are interested in buying gold, check out my recent report. I have a feeling it is going to come in very handy.My recommended bullion dealer is the Pure Gold Company. I also like Goldcore.Don't forget Life After the State - Why We Don't Need Government (2013), my first book, and many readers' favourite, is now back in print - with the audiobook here: Audible UK, Audible US, Apple Books. I recommend the audiobook ;)And if you are in the Edinburgh neck of the woods this August, look out for me at the Edinburgh Fringe. I'll be performing one of my “lectures with funny bits”. This one is all about the history of mining. As always, I shall be delivering it at Panmure House, where Adam Smith wrote Wealth of Nations. It's at 2pm most afternoons. You can get tickets here.Thoughts on Condor Gold

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comNext week, I'm putting out my top ten picks from the Weird S**t Investment Conference, so look out for that, and at the end of today's piece, there is also a short note on Condor Gold, which will be of interest to some readers.But we have a General Election coming up in the UK, and citizens of this once-great nation want to know how to protect what they have worked for from the incoming Labour Government, which, you can be sure, is going to be sniffing around like a spaniel on luggage in an airport. We now have the Labour Manifesto, so we can start to be a bit more specific than we were in part one of this series.I stress: this is only the manifesto. There is a long history of governments doing things they didn't mention in their manifestos or failing to honour manifesto commitments. Roosevelt's confiscation of Americans' gold is one example that springs to mind, but that might just be because I have just been writing about it. There are plenty of examples in the UK too, even with the current government - increases to National Insurance, the Covid money splurge, failures on renters' reform, home building, immigration pledges, social care, and so on. Circumstances change and so will pledges, especially with a Prime Minister who has quite a track record when it comes to changing tack. Do not be surprised by the surprises that are inevitably coming.The broad argument of part one is that the pound will continue to be debased. It will buy you a lot less in five years than it does now. Whether we will see the 33% declines in the pound's purchasing power we have seen since 2020, I'm not sure, but the way to hedge yourself is to own non-government money - gold and bitcoin.Labour has pledged to “keep mortgage rates low” and to “retain the 2% inflation target,” which means it will keep a lid on interest rates, or try to, especially with official inflation now having come down to 2%. That all furthers my argument that the pound will continue to lose purchasing power.Labour has a gazillion things it wants to spend money on, ranging from Great British Energy to new teachers, breakfast clubs, and increased NHS appointments, so it is going to need low rates. It has also said it plans to move the “current budget into balance” and “ensure debt is falling.” All I can say is good luck with that. No chance. Spending is going to increase, and, even with the inevitable currency debasement, it is going to need to find tax revenue too. That means higher taxes.But higher taxes where? Taxes, relative to GDP, are already at their highest levels since World War Two, and Labour has promised no increases in National Insurance, Income Tax rates, or VAT. It has also pledged to cap corporation tax at 25% throughout the Parliament.Some increased revenue, it says, will come from clamping down on tax avoidance and modernising HMRC. A lot easier said than done.The big unmentionables have been Council Tax, Capital Gains Tax, and Inheritance Tax. All three, I expect, will go up. Council Tax valuation bands are based on 1991 property prices. That is an obvious anachronism to “update,” though council tax goes to local coffers and Labour will be more interested in revenue at the national level. Even so, it is an obvious area of tax revenue growth. Not a lot you can do to avoid it, except move.Inheritance Tax, meanwhile, will not come down and will probably go up. It is, of course, morally wrong to want to pass the wealth you have earned and already paid taxes on to your heirs. Changes will be justified on the grounds of unearned wealth and exploit the politics of envy. The rate could rise to 50%, I suppose, while areas of relief - the seven-year gift rule, perhaps, the relief on main homes - could be removed. All I can say is plan early.Capital Gains Tax, meanwhile, is likely to rise. Starmer has avoided saying it won't. I expect to see it rise to levels concomitant with Income Tax with similar bands (i.e., 40% above £37k and 45% above £125k). The way to avoid this is by not transacting, which is what most will do unless they really have to, and so the effect of CGT rises will be market atrophy.Labour will also come after your pensions too - there is so much capital there - with those in the private sector likely to take a bigger hit than those in the state.There is also a lot of blurb about the launch of Great British Energy to “harness Britain's sun, wind and wave energy” with a windfall tax on oil and gas giants. That makes British oil and gas companies uninvestable. It says it will “deliver one hundred percent clean power by 2030,” though we know that clean power is neither clean nor green . They clearly haven't read their Alex Epstein, and it all means that essential fossil fuel will inevitably get more expensive, and the country will function less well as a result. Labour says it is going to reduce energy bills. Not possible without subsidies somewhere else, and these have to be paid for.The Housing MarketFollowers of Fred Harrison and the 18-year property cycle will note that Britain's housing market is heading towards a cycle high, with collapse starting in 2026. Perhaps that will be triggered by Labour's plans. It wants to fix planning and build a lot of social housing - that means a bet on builders and builders' merchants (Travis Perkins and Vistry, for example) might make sense, at least in the short run. There is a long history of governments failing to deliver on this, and I don't think Labour has any chance of meeting targets. If it comes anywhere close, it means Britain's housing stock is about to get even uglier.Labour's Freedom to Buy scheme, like Help to Buy, is just another means to pump more money into the housing market, and the general drift seems to be to subsidize at the bottom and tax at the top. It has ruled out Capital Gains Tax on your main residence, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it anyway. Meanwhile, Stamp Duty will continue, even if it means atrophy at the top end of the market. The attack on non-doms will also hit homes at the top end. For homes above £1 million, the costs of moving - high stamp duty especially, more if we get CGT too - just points to stagnation.Meanwhile, I expect the introduction of numerous schemes to protect tenants, which will only drive away landlords and end with higher rental costs.You know that I am a free-market guy, and I dislike on instinct market intervention, subsidy, and all the rest of it. All Labour's grand plans to encourage investment just reek of crony capitalism to me, so I tend to avoid, but I've no doubt that industrialists, who position themselves correctly, might make good money out of them. More on this after the election.My theory used to be this: that in the same way a Conservative Party that was so scared of the left-wing press became a social-democrat party, so will this Labour Government, scared of the right-wing press, end up lurching to the centre-right. I no longer see that. Labour is trying to present itself as centre-left, but the instinct is for government intervention and I see a lot more of it coming. The civil service, the Blob, and the government are theologically aligned and that is not good. It means they can progress their agenda. I'd love to be more optimistic, but, despite Starmer's purges, there is still a lot of socialist instinct in that party.Bottom line. Taxes are going to go up. Freedom is going to be eroded. The pound is going to lose purchasing power.If you are interested in buying gold, check out my recent report. I have a feeling it is going to come in very handy.My recommended bullion dealer is the Pure Gold Company. I also like Goldcore.Don't forget Life After the State - Why We Don't Need Government (2013), my first book, and many readers' favourite, is now back in print - with the audiobook here: Audible UK, Audible US, Apple Books. I recommend the audiobook ;)And if you are in the Edinburgh neck of the woods this August, look out for me at the Edinburgh Fringe. I'll be performing one of my “lectures with funny bits”. This one is all about the history of mining. As always, I shall be delivering it at Panmure House, where Adam Smith wrote Wealth of Nations. It's at 2pm most afternoons. You can get tickets here.Thoughts on Condor Gold

Can you time the real estate market? Discover the secrets of the 18.6-year property cycle and learn how to predict market trends for successful investments. Join hosts Brad East and Casey Taylor on "Talk Property To Me" as they demystify the 18.6-year property cycle. Based on the work of Fred Harrison and Phil Anderson, this theory offers a unique lens for analyzing market patterns.  Learn about the cycle's phases, historical evidence, and how to leverage this knowledge to make informed real estate decisions. Prepare for the next market shift! Join our exclusive Facebook group for ongoing support and expert advice on Australian finance and real estate. → https://www.facebook.com/groups/talkpropertytome  Follow our podcast instagram here → https://www.instagram.com/talk_property_to_me_podcast/  EPISODE IN A GLANCE  00:00 - The 18.6 year real estate cycle theory and its origins from Phil Anderson's book "The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking." the different phases of the cycle - the first half, mid-cycle slowdown, and second half, with examples of past events triggering the slowdowns. 01:11 - Inspirations & Cycle Start: Discussing inspirations like Fred Harrison's work, pinpointing the start of the current cycle after the GFC recovery, and the mindset for investors. 03:32 - Market Timing: Warnings against trying to precisely time market cycles and identifying potential opportunities to buy according to the theory. 04:48 - Mid-Cycle: Characteristics of the mid-cycle slowdown phase, cities outperforming, factors triggering it, and expected market corrections. 06:52 - Second Half & Peak: Dynamics of the second half rally, cities benefiting, escalating demand/FOMO towards the "winner's curse" peak. 08:44 - Predictions & Australia: Predicted timing of the next major correction, caveats about theories, and characteristics of the Australian property market. 10:23 - Market Influence & Strategies: The importance of residential property to the Australian economy and strategies for preparing portfolios before a correction. 13:37 - Being Proactive & Indicators: Advice on being proactive, market signals like days on market/vendor discounts, and role of interest rates. ABOUT THE HOSTS BRAD EAST Brad East is the Managing Director of Wisebuy Home Loans. Brad is an award-winning mortgage broker and has helped thousands of clients gain finance to purchase properties. Wisebuy Home Loans is the go-to mortgage brokerage for clients wanting out-of-the-box applications approved. Website → https://wisebuygroup.com.au  LinkedIn → https://www.linkedin.com/in/newcastlemortgagebroker/  Instagram → https://www.instagram.com/bradeast_mortgagebroker/  Facebook → https://www.facebook.com/bradeastofficial   CASEY TAYLOR Casey Taylor is the Managing Director of Taylored Property Welth who specializes in helping clients purchase high-performing investment properties. Casey has a huge amount of knowledge when it comes to property investment and will be sharing this with the listeners. Website → https://tayloredpropertywealth.com.au  LinkedIn → https://www.linkedin.com/in/wealth-property-buyersagent-investment-financialfreedom/  Instagram → https://www.instagram.com/casey.taylor_tpw_buyersagent/  Facebook → https://www.facebook.com/tayloredpropertywealth 

Australian supermarkets have been in the firing line as prices rise, but with costs also heading upwards the outrage might be a little unfair.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Many people may be feeling in a state of financial flux at the moment and wondering where to put their money. And it's not an easy choice. Savings rates have improved, gold is holding steady, but property prices are slipping and stocks are sticky. And that is just some of the myriad of options Britons are contemplating right now, alongside other areas such as overpaying the mortgage or saving for retirement. So, where would you put your money for the next five years? That's the question the This is Money team put to the experts – and our readers – with a mixed response. Georgie Frost, Simon Lambert and Lee Boyce reveal what they told us, the results of a reader poll and how they're grappling with these big financial decisions. Could unloved and cheap investment trusts be the answer? Simon runs the rule. Premium Bonds have been boosted again – Lee reveals why they are giving them a headache. And NS&I have boosted its green savings deal to 5.7 per cent. Is it a good deal now? Elsewhere, Ofgem has announced the new energy price cap for October 2023 will be £1,923. What does it mean for households – and why are many still facing higher bills this winter regardless? Loyal listeners may might remember a few years ago predictions from a chap called Fred Harrison - a housing market crash in 2026. The British author and economic commentator identified the 18-year property cycle and believes it can accurately predict the next house price crash. But have today's inflation and high mortgage rates thrown the cycle off track? And property prices have become less expensive relative to average earnings, according to new data – but there's a sting in the tail: higher mortgage rates mean homes are now LESS affordable. Finally, would you pay £25million for a car?

Welcome back to another episode of the Port Podcast! We are very excited to have you tune in for our special episode all about partnerships, including the one we have at the Saint John Arts Centre. We spoke to Andrew Kierstead about the selection process of artists. We speak with Fred Harrison, who is this year's artist in residence, and we learn about his creative process, how the Bay of fundy influences his work, how he grew up and more. We hope you enjoy this episode.

Food inflation is expected to drop over the next year, but weather & price issues could continue to fluctuate prices.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Join Stavros Ambatzidis from O'Brien Real Estate and producer Jane Nield for a monthly discussion on all things Real Estate. Our guest on the show this week is Fred Harrison the CEO of Ritchies. Ritchies is the largest independent supermarket chain in Australia and their focus on supporting the local community is at the core of the business. Fred inspires us with the story of his rise to CEO, we delve into his family and upbringing which helped establish his remarkable work ethic, his first ventures into real estate, the current cost of living crisis and his advice for anyone trying to step onto the first rung of the property ladder. Connect with Stav via www.obrienrealestate.com.au HERE. This podcast is produced by Stavros Ambatzidis and produced, engineered and edited by Jane Nield for SEN. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Before we begin today's piece, if you should happen to be in the Scottish neck of the woods this August, I am doing one of my lectures with funny bits at the Edinburgh Fringe this year.This one is about gold. It has got Greek gods, interstellar collisions, heists and Nazis. What more you could want in a show? It's from August 4th to 20th at 2pm. Please come if you are in town- you can get tickets here.Plus an added bit of history: it takes place in the room in which Adam Smith wrote Wealth of Nations.Hopefully, I will see you there. So cycles …‘The wheel is come full circle,' commented Shakespeare's Edgar on the carnage that surrounded him at the end of King Lear. The notion of a wheel of fortune is one that has pervaded since antiquity. There are good times and bad times. There are bull markets and bear markets. There is boom and bust, something Chancellor Gordon Brown said he was going to eliminate.Whether it's the seasons of the year, the moons, or the inevitable ageing process and the cycle of life - what Shakespeare called “the Seven Ages of Man” - it's clear that there are recurring patterns to the world around us. There are even recurring patterns in the length of women's hemlines. Anyone who has been involved in business for any significant amount of time will know that markets never go up for ever, but are subject to the same cyclical movements. Commodities are very prone to cycles, so called secular bull markets or super-cycles. In 1947, Edward R. Dewey and Edwin F. Dakin published a book called Cycles - The Science of Predictions. It's now out of print, but Dewey and Dakin noticed a 54-year index cycle in wholesale prices – in other words commodity prices  - going back to 1790. Based on this they made projections for the future. They called it the 54-year "Rhythm".Their forecasts were pretty accurate. The 1980s and 90s were a clear secular commodities bear market. The 2000s a clear secular bull. The 2010s another secular bear. The 2020s? A bit of everything.Thinking in basic terms can be an effective way of investing: are we in a bull market or a bear market? How long does this bull/bear market have to run? Find a bull market and go long. That's all you need to do really as an investor. There's no point picking brilliant stocks, if the sector they are in is in a bear market.   Mining companies themselves, go through clear cycles – perhaps phases is a better word – from exploration and discovery, through development and mine building, to actual production. New technology goes through a clear cycle as it evolves, which research firm Gartner dubbed the hype cycle. Look at what happened with Dotcom and the internet: from invention to excitement and bubble to collapse to mainstream adoption. Felix Dennis in his book How To Be Rich talked about “riding the wave”: getting into a new growth area early and then surfing to riches. Thinking in terms of cycles can help you to frame the bigger picture. It can give you an idea of where you are in the grand scheme of things. We like reading about cycles because they bring a veneer of certainty, clarity, security and comfort, where there is, in fact, often none. But most of us have a slightly superstitious streak, which means we can be vulnerable to cycles narratives, too easily persuaded by them and too easily wedded to them.I remember around the time of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, many became obsessed with the idea of Kondratiev winter. In his 1925 book The Major Economic Cycles, Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev had identified a long-term cycle lasting approximately 50 years. As I say, cycles can make for good copy and Kondratiev made his name pedalling them. We had had spring, summer and autumn. Now we were headed into winter. The notion was confirmed by the collapse in financial markets happening in real time around us. The narrative took hold, and many buckled down with gold, tins and guns, ready for a great depression, only to miss out on one of the most epic bull markets in history.Back in 2005 economist Fred Harrison wrote about an 18-year cycle in UK property in his cult classic Boom Bust: House Prices, Banking and the Depression of 2010. In 2005 many had already turned bearish on property with good fundamental reasoning. But Harrison said the bull market had longer to run and the top was coming in 2008. He was right. There were still two more years of bull market. The peak actually came in the third quarter of 2007. The problem is the trough was so short lived. A couple of years maybe. We got the Global Financial Crisis but I don't remember the “Depression of 2010”.  There was a buying window during that 2009 to 2011 period, but prices, especially in London, did not fall by anything as much as many were hoping. Interest rates were slashed and there were few forced sellers. Without the rate cuts, house prices would have come down by a lot more. By the turn of the decade it was off to the races again. If you sold in 2007, but were too wedded to the cycle theory, you would have been waiting for lower prices and never got back in again. Harrison, by the way, is forecasting the next peak in UK real estate in 2025. He may prove right, but recent data coupled with rising rates suggest the market has already peaked. Is this another false top, such as we saw in 2005? We shall see.Another popular cycle is the four-year “presidential cycle” in US stocks. A few years ago GMO's Jeremy Grantham, one of its main proponents, declared that it doesn't work any more because the US Federal Reserve has broken it. But here we are in 2023, in the third year of a presidential cycle, and the S&P500 is acting it out to the letter, rising to new highs when few expected it.The idea is that economic sacrifices are made during the first two years of a president's term (while it's still OK to be unpopular). This results in the “four-year cycle low” in the stockmarket. Then, in the final two years of the term, the focus shifts towards stimulus, to boost the economy ahead of the next election. That 3rd year boom is just what we are seeing now.Cycles are all very well in theory. They make a great topic for discussion, but trading them in real time is a different prospect altogether. It's too easy for an academic to look back at history, find a pattern and declare it a cycle. When real life doesn't fit the model, you'll hear something like: “Well, the war upset the cycle”, or “they printed loads of money, so the cycle didn't work out”. Markets are not fixed and predictable in the same way as the days and weeks of the year.I like writing about cycles. I like reading about them. I think they help guide you through life. But when the word “cycles” comes up in investing, I breathe out and try and erect a defensive mental wall. Heaven forbid I should get too wedded to them. Real life and academia are not the same.Thanks for reading. Please subscribe if you haven't already, and check out my paid letter. Lots more great content on its way.Interested in buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times? My current recommended bullion dealer in the UK is The Pure Gold Company, whether you are taking delivery or storing online. Premiums are low, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, US, Canada and Europe, or you can store your gold with them. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

Before we begin today's piece, if you should happen to be in the Scottish neck of the woods this August, I am doing one of my lectures with funny bits at the Edinburgh Fringe this year.This one is about gold. It has got Greek gods, interstellar collisions, heists and Nazis. What more you could want in a show? It's from August 4th to 20th at 2pm. Please come if you are in town- you can get tickets here.Plus an added bit of history: it takes place in the room in which Adam Smith wrote Wealth of Nations.Hopefully, I will see you there. So cycles …‘The wheel is come full circle,' commented Shakespeare's Edgar on the carnage that surrounded him at the end of King Lear. The notion of a wheel of fortune is one that has pervaded since antiquity. There are good times and bad times. There are bull markets and bear markets. There is boom and bust, something Chancellor Gordon Brown said he was going to eliminate.Whether it's the seasons of the year, the moons, or the inevitable ageing process and the cycle of life - what Shakespeare called “the Seven Ages of Man” - it's clear that there are recurring patterns to the world around us. There are even recurring patterns in the length of women's hemlines. Anyone who has been involved in business for any significant amount of time will know that markets never go up for ever, but are subject to the same cyclical movements. Commodities are very prone to cycles, so called secular bull markets or super-cycles. In 1947, Edward R. Dewey and Edwin F. Dakin published a book called Cycles - The Science of Predictions. It's now out of print, but Dewey and Dakin noticed a 54-year index cycle in wholesale prices – in other words commodity prices  - going back to 1790. Based on this they made projections for the future. They called it the 54-year "Rhythm".Their forecasts were pretty accurate. The 1980s and 90s were a clear secular commodities bear market. The 2000s a clear secular bull. The 2010s another secular bear. The 2020s? A bit of everything.Thinking in basic terms can be an effective way of investing: are we in a bull market or a bear market? How long does this bull/bear market have to run? Find a bull market and go long. That's all you need to do really as an investor. There's no point picking brilliant stocks, if the sector they are in is in a bear market.   Mining companies themselves, go through clear cycles – perhaps phases is a better word – from exploration and discovery, through development and mine building, to actual production. New technology goes through a clear cycle as it evolves, which research firm Gartner dubbed the hype cycle. Look at what happened with Dotcom and the internet: from invention to excitement and bubble to collapse to mainstream adoption. Felix Dennis in his book How To Be Rich talked about “riding the wave”: getting into a new growth area early and then surfing to riches. Thinking in terms of cycles can help you to frame the bigger picture. It can give you an idea of where you are in the grand scheme of things. We like reading about cycles because they bring a veneer of certainty, clarity, security and comfort, where there is, in fact, often none. But most of us have a slightly superstitious streak, which means we can be vulnerable to cycles narratives, too easily persuaded by them and too easily wedded to them.I remember around the time of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, many became obsessed with the idea of Kondratiev winter. In his 1925 book The Major Economic Cycles, Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev had identified a long-term cycle lasting approximately 50 years. As I say, cycles can make for good copy and Kondratiev made his name pedalling them. We had had spring, summer and autumn. Now we were headed into winter. The notion was confirmed by the collapse in financial markets happening in real time around us. The narrative took hold, and many buckled down with gold, tins and guns, ready for a great depression, only to miss out on one of the most epic bull markets in history.Back in 2005 economist Fred Harrison wrote about an 18-year cycle in UK property in his cult classic Boom Bust: House Prices, Banking and the Depression of 2010. In 2005 many had already turned bearish on property with good fundamental reasoning. But Harrison said the bull market had longer to run and the top was coming in 2008. He was right. There were still two more years of bull market. The peak actually came in the third quarter of 2007. The problem is the trough was so short lived. A couple of years maybe. We got the Global Financial Crisis but I don't remember the “Depression of 2010”.  There was a buying window during that 2009 to 2011 period, but prices, especially in London, did not fall by anything as much as many were hoping. Interest rates were slashed and there were few forced sellers. Without the rate cuts, house prices would have come down by a lot more. By the turn of the decade it was off to the races again. If you sold in 2007, but were too wedded to the cycle theory, you would have been waiting for lower prices and never got back in again. Harrison, by the way, is forecasting the next peak in UK real estate in 2025. He may prove right, but recent data coupled with rising rates suggest the market has already peaked. Is this another false top, such as we saw in 2005? We shall see.Another popular cycle is the four-year “presidential cycle” in US stocks. A few years ago GMO's Jeremy Grantham, one of its main proponents, declared that it doesn't work any more because the US Federal Reserve has broken it. But here we are in 2023, in the third year of a presidential cycle, and the S&P500 is acting it out to the letter, rising to new highs when few expected it.The idea is that economic sacrifices are made during the first two years of a president's term (while it's still OK to be unpopular). This results in the “four-year cycle low” in the stockmarket. Then, in the final two years of the term, the focus shifts towards stimulus, to boost the economy ahead of the next election. That 3rd year boom is just what we are seeing now.Cycles are all very well in theory. They make a great topic for discussion, but trading them in real time is a different prospect altogether. It's too easy for an academic to look back at history, find a pattern and declare it a cycle. When real life doesn't fit the model, you'll hear something like: “Well, the war upset the cycle”, or “they printed loads of money, so the cycle didn't work out”. Markets are not fixed and predictable in the same way as the days and weeks of the year.I like writing about cycles. I like reading about them. I think they help guide you through life. But when the word “cycles” comes up in investing, I breathe out and try and erect a defensive mental wall. Heaven forbid I should get too wedded to them. Real life and academia are not the same.Thanks for reading. Please subscribe if you haven't already, and check out my paid letter. Lots more great content on its way.Interested in buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times? My current recommended bullion dealer in the UK is The Pure Gold Company, whether you are taking delivery or storing online. Premiums are low, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, US, Canada and Europe, or you can store your gold with them. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

Mr. Harrison received his bachelor's from Oxford University and his master's from the University of London. He is a veteran journalist who has served in multiple news agencies such as The People and Wellington Journal. In 1988 he became the Research Director of the Land Research Trust, London, and has advised several corporations and international governments on tax and economic policy. Fred places an emphasis on the housing market and its interaction with the economy as a whole. He is the author of many books, including "The Corruption of Economics," "The Power in the Land," and "A Philosophy for a Fair Society," all of which critique mainstream economic thinking. Mr. Harrison joined us to discuss why he focuses so much on land and housing, rentier capitalism, and why passing redistributive policies can be so hard. To check out more of our content, including our research, visit our website: https://www.hgsss.org/

There's a new Chancellor in town and he means business. Serious business. After Kwasi Kwarteng tried to spread some joy to get growth going with tax cuts for all, Jeremy Hunt and the fun police have stepped in to stop the markets freaking out. The fallout from Kwarteng's ill-fated mini-budget has now claimed his Chancellorship and Liz Truss's Premiership - with Britain achieving the rare feat of losing two Prime Ministers in less than four months. But with Hunt's stern reversal of the tax cuts in place and a firm commitment to not come up with any more cunning plans that might upset the markets, is Britain now on a firmer economic footing. Or will our quest for yet another Prime Minister spell more trouble ahead? On this podcast, Georgie Frost, Helen Crane and Simon Lambert look at Hunt's rapid reversal of Kwarteng's cuts and whether they will steady the ship and prove a good idea. The team also discuss the decision to stick with the triple lock - an expensive promise the Government decided to keep, but did it really have any choice after ripping up the guarantee for pensioners last year. Plus, will the rapid rise in mortgage prices sink house prices? Many think so, but our 18 year property cycle guru Fred Harrison says otherwise. And finally, how much does it cost you to use your cooker vs an air fryer or a slow cooker and if you really want to save money is it an energy saving dad you need?

Woolworths says there'll be shortages across a wide range of fruit and vegetables on their shelves, but smaller chains might not be affected so much. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today we finish discussing the murders of Ian Brady and Myra Hindley, known as the "Moors Murders". E-mail me at Pugmomof1@gmail.com; visit me on Instagram as True Crime University_Donate via PayPal to help me keep the show going: bullymom7@yahoo.comFollow this link to get a free month of BarkBox! www.barkbox.com/TrueCrimeUniversityReferences: allthatsinteresting.com, thesun.co.uk, crimeandinvestigation.co.uk, wikipedia, Ian Brady: The Untold Story of the Moors Murders by Dr Alan Keightley, The Lost Boy by Duncan Staff, Brady and Hindley: Genesis of the Moors Murders by Fred Harrison, If Only by Terry West  Manchester Evening News, findagrave.com, glasgowlive.com, bbc.com, dailymail.co.uk, leighgbankspreservationsociety.com, voxbliss.com, ethicsorg.au, Evening Standard, Birmingham Post, tameri.com, theconversation.com, The Guardian "The Grim Sleeper" on The Crime Reel https://youtu.be/quxzfhPt350F**k ThatF**k That is a true crime podcast hosted by Ashley, a true crime fanatic, and Dan, who...Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify

Today we continue discussing the murders of Ian Brady and Myra Hindley, known as the "Moors Murders". Today's lesson focuses on the last two murders and Ian's arrest. TRIGGER WARNING: Sexual assault and murder of childrenE-mail me at Pugmomof1@gmail.com; visit me on Instagram as True Crime University_Donate via PayPal to help me keep the show going: bullymom7@yahoo.comFollow this link to get a free month of BarkBox! www.barkbox.com/TrueCrimeUniversityReferences: allthatsinteresting.com, thesun.co.uk, crimeandinvestigation.co.uk, wikipedia, Ian Brady: The Untold Story of the Moors Murders by Dr Alan Keightley, The Lost Boy by Duncan Staff, Brady and Hindley: Genesis of the Moors Murders by Fred Harrison, If Only by Terry West  Manchester Evening News, findagrave.com, glasgowlive.com, bbc.com, dailymail.co.uk "The Grim Sleeper" on The Crime Reel https://youtu.be/quxzfhPt350

Today we continue discussing the murders of Ian Brady and Myra Hindley, known as the "Moors Murders". Today's lesson focuses on the couple's relationship and the first three murders. TRIGGER WARNING: Sexual assault and murder of childrenE-mail me at Pugmomof1@gmail.com; visit me on Instagram as True Crime University_Donate via PayPal to help me keep the show going: bullymom7@yahoo.comFollow this link to get a free month of BarkBox! www.barkbox.com/TrueCrimeUniversityReferences: allthatsinteresting.com, thesun.co.uk, crimeandinvestigation.co.uk, wikipedia, Ian Brady: The Untold Story of the Moors Murders by Dr Alan Keightley, The Lost Boy by Duncan Staff, Brady and Hindley: Genesis of the Moors Murders by Fred Harrison, Manchester Evening News, findagrave.com, glasgowlive.com, bbc.com, dailymail.co.uk "The Grim Sleeper" on The Crime Reel https://youtu.be/quxzfhPt350

Today we continue discussing the murders of Ian Brady and Myra Hindley, known as the "Moors Murders". Today's lesson focuses on Myra and the beginning of the couple's relationship.E-mail me at Pugmomof1@gmail.com; visit me on Instagram as True Crime University_Donate via PayPal to help me keep the show going: bullymom7@yahoo.comFollow this link to get a free month of BarkBox! www.barkbox.com/TrueCrimeUniversityReferences: allthatsinteresting.com, thesun.co.uk, crimeandinvestigation.co.uk, wikipedia, Ian Brady: The Untold Story of the Moors Murders by Dr Alan Keightley, The Lost Boy by Duncan Staff, Brady and Hindley: Genesis of the Moors Murders by Fred Harrison   "The Grim Sleeper" on The Crime Reel https://youtu.be/quxzfhPt350

Today we start discussing the murders of Ian Brady and Myra Hindley, known as the "Moors Murders". Today's lesson focuses on Ian and his background.E-mail me at Pugmomof1@gmail.com; visit me on Instagram as True Crime University_Donate via PayPal to help me keep the show going: bullymom7@yahoo.comFollow this link to get a free month of BarkBox! www.barkbox.com/TrueCrimeUniversityReferences: allthatsinteresting.com, thesun.co.uk, crimeandinvestigation.co.uk, wikipedia, Ian Brady: The Untold Story of the Moors Murders by Dr Alan Keightley, The Lost Boy by Duncan Staff, Brady and Hindley: Genesis of the Moors Murders" by Fred Harrison   "The Grim Sleeper" on The Crime Reel https://youtu.be/quxzfhPt350

Stuart and Simon are taking on the 18-year property cycle! Does it matter and how should/is it affecting their investment plans. The chat this week includes: * Car parts (bear with us)! * The need to take charge of situations. * Fred Harrison (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Harrison_%28author%29) (Not Frank, sorry Stuart mis-spoke). * The 18-year property cycle (https://www.propertygeek.net/article/the-18-year-property-cycle/). * Property Hub recently talked about (https://propertyhub.net/podcast/18-year-property-cycle-market-crash/) the 18-year cycle. * How we view the 18-year property cycle. * Property is (mostly) long-term. * Digging into the rise of property prices over time. * We can't predict the future. * Do even need to predict the future? * How the 18-year property cycle is affecting our investment plans. * Find us on Twitter (https://twitter.com/BizOfProperty) or LinkedIn: Stuart (https://www.linkedin.com/in/stuartlordan/), Simon (https://www.linkedin.com/in/simonpither/). Please leave us a rating and review if you're enjoying the show. This podcast is produced in association with PaTMa (https://www.patma.co.uk/), the leading application for self managing landlords who want to save time and stay compliant. Easily track properties, tenancies, tenants, repairs, rent, mortgage payments and safety certificates. Get your FREE account today (https://www.patma.co.uk/).

It's a national religion for some, heresy for others. Today we look at house prices.But we do not consider property through the window of the estate agent's, but rather through the prism of an 18-year cycle, one that was brought to public attention by economist Fred Harrison is his cult classic Boom Bust: House Prices, Banking and the Depression of 2010. He published it in 2005 so, if you're into forecasting, that's some title…Cycles are often what you want them to beBefore we start, let me issue my usual disclaimer on cycles. Cycles exist everywhere: the seasons of the year, night and day, the life cycles of plants and animals. They exist within our own bodies in the form of circadian rhythms. They exist, sort of, in markets too – there are good times and bad times, bull markets and bear markets, four-year presidential cycles, commodity super-cycles and more. Mining companies, in particular, go through clear cycles – perhaps phases is a better word – from exploration and discovery, through development and mine building, to actual production.I'm a keen observer of hype cycles. How much of this story is known? How much more hype is left in the tin? Or is this story now tired?And cycles can make for good copy. Kondratiev made his name pedalling them. We like reading about them because they bring a veneer of certainty where there is in fact, often none.But cycles – especially in markets – are also arbitrary, random and uncertain. It's easy for an academic to look back at history, find a pattern and declare it a cycle. When real life doesn't fit the model, you'll hear something like: “Well, the war upset the cycle”, or “they printed loads of money, so the cycle didn't work out” or whatever. Cycles in markets are not fixed and predictable in the same way as the days and weeks of the year. And they are not so apparent in real time - only in the rear view mirror.You get the point. There is a certain amount of salt to pinch when it comes to cycles.Nevertheless they are useful instruments. I know some who swear by them, especially Harrison's, whose book was clearly brilliant in its forecast. I remember thinking in 2005: “This market is nuts. It has to crash”. Many felt the same way, including many of the brightest minds in the City. A whole website - housepricecrash.co.uk – sprung up around the theme. Many of us were certain the game was about to end. Then I stumbled across this brilliantly prophetic article by Harrison in MoneyWeek saying, “No, we are a couple or three years from the top”. He was right. After last week's missive on house prices versus gold, I was thinking about our distorted property market and the spectre of rising interest rates. The thought occurred to me that we must be close to Harrison's next peak. Lo and behold, Merryn Somerset Webb interviewed him in the latest MoneyWeek podcast.Harrison's short answer is that 2026 will see the top of the market. We have another three years, in other words.A quick guide to the 18-year property cycleLet me quickly explain how his thinking works. His idea – and it is more about land prices than it is house prices, though the two tend to rise and fall together – is that property tends to see 14 years of price growth, followed by four years of decline.Broken down an 18-year cycle might something like this:Harrison says he can follow prices back some 200 years to find this clear 18-year cycle at play. I don't have all the data to cross check back that far, but I do have the data going back to 1951 (care of Nationwide), so let us at least check that. Before World War II, property was not the overpriced monster it is today. Home ownership was lower (sub-25% most of the time – most people rented from private landlords) and mortgages hardly existed (they only really reared their heads in the 1930s), so the cycle, even if visible, would not have been as pronounced as it is in today's debt-ridden fiat era.The top of the last cycle (in the UK) actually came in the third quarter of 2007. The average house price then fell from £183,000 to £149,000 in the first quarter of 2009. It would be 2012 before the market properly got going again.There was definitely a buying window during that 2009 to 2012 period, but prices, especially in London, did not fall by anything as much as many buyers were hoping. That's mostly because there were few forced sellers, because interest rates were slashed. Had there been, then house prices would have come down by a lot more. They fell by a lot more than 18% if you were a foreigner, however, as the pound lost a good 30% in the foreign exchange markets (measured mostly against the US dollar).Go back 18 years and you have the crash of 1989-94. Prices peaked in the third quarter of 1989 at £63,000, before falling to £51,000. Things got going again in the mid-to-late 1990s. The pound lost a lot of value in the forex markets then too.The cycle is working well.Going back 18 years further takes us to 1971-72. The 1970s were a horrible decade economically, but housing was not the worst place to be. Houses were a better inflation hedge than cash. And between 1970 and 1973 house prices actually doubled. After 1973 they positively rocketed.So we are going to declare that Harrison's cycle did not work here. (I'd be interested to hear what Fred has to say about that. There's bound to be an explanation).However go back another 18 years to the early 1950s, and house prices did see declines, before the market took off in the second half of the decade and into the 1960s.Here are UK house prices since 1951, with the cycle peaks market by red arrows.Going back further, I guess World War II upset the cycle. The recession of the early 1920s hurt house prices, then from 1926 to 1939 house prices rose a little, but by so little the market would be better described as flat. They went from £619 to £659. Mortgages barely existed and prices were much more relative to the amount of cash people had. Mortgages saw to that.Six hundred quid for a house! How money has been debased. It's £274,000 now. House price crash 2026? It could happenAll in all I'm going to give the cycle an A-minus. It is not perfect, but, like many cycles, it is a useful guide. And a scenario of higher prices going into 2025-26, followed by a slump, is something I can very much envisage.So if you're looking to buy, start getting your finances in place now. If the slump is anything like 2008, you'll have to move quickly. If it's like 1990-95 you'll have plenty of time.I'll be re-evaluating in 2025, but my own experience when it comes to buying your own home (investing in real estate is different) is that you have to move when the time is right for you, to the place that best fits your circumstances. Trying to second guess the market can lead to unhappy outcomes. House prices only ever go up! And if they do go down, they won't come down as much as you want them to. And one final tip – period property keeps its value better than new build.Thanks for reading. Please subscribe if you haven't already, and check out my paid letter. Lots more great content on its way. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

It's a national religion for some, heresy for others. Today we look at house prices.But we do not consider property through the window of the estate agent's, but rather through the prism of an 18-year cycle, one that was brought to public attention by economist Fred Harrison is his cult classic Boom Bust: House Prices, Banking and the Depression of 2010. He published it in 2005 so, if you're into forecasting, that's some title…Cycles are often what you want them to beBefore we start, let me issue my usual disclaimer on cycles. Cycles exist everywhere: the seasons of the year, night and day, the life cycles of plants and animals. They exist within our own bodies in the form of circadian rhythms. They exist, sort of, in markets too – there are good times and bad times, bull markets and bear markets, four-year presidential cycles, commodity super-cycles and more. Mining companies, in particular, go through clear cycles – perhaps phases is a better word – from exploration and discovery, through development and mine building, to actual production.I'm a keen observer of hype cycles. How much of this story is known? How much more hype is left in the tin? Or is this story now tired?And cycles can make for good copy. Kondratiev made his name pedalling them. We like reading about them because they bring a veneer of certainty where there is in fact, often none.But cycles – especially in markets – are also arbitrary, random and uncertain. It's easy for an academic to look back at history, find a pattern and declare it a cycle. When real life doesn't fit the model, you'll hear something like: “Well, the war upset the cycle”, or “they printed loads of money, so the cycle didn't work out” or whatever. Cycles in markets are not fixed and predictable in the same way as the days and weeks of the year. And they are not so apparent in real time - only in the rear view mirror.You get the point. There is a certain amount of salt to pinch when it comes to cycles.Nevertheless they are useful instruments. I know some who swear by them, especially Harrison's, whose book was clearly brilliant in its forecast. I remember thinking in 2005: “This market is nuts. It has to crash”. Many felt the same way, including many of the brightest minds in the City. A whole website - housepricecrash.co.uk – sprung up around the theme. Many of us were certain the game was about to end. Then I stumbled across this brilliantly prophetic article by Harrison in MoneyWeek saying, “No, we are a couple or three years from the top”. He was right. After last week's missive on house prices versus gold, I was thinking about our distorted property market and the spectre of rising interest rates. The thought occurred to me that we must be close to Harrison's next peak. Lo and behold, Merryn Somerset Webb interviewed him in the latest MoneyWeek podcast.Harrison's short answer is that 2026 will see the top of the market. We have another three years, in other words.A quick guide to the 18-year property cycleLet me quickly explain how his thinking works. His idea – and it is more about land prices than it is house prices, though the two tend to rise and fall together – is that property tends to see 14 years of price growth, followed by four years of decline.Broken down an 18-year cycle might something like this:Harrison says he can follow prices back some 200 years to find this clear 18-year cycle at play. I don't have all the data to cross check back that far, but I do have the data going back to 1951 (care of Nationwide), so let us at least check that. Before World War II, property was not the overpriced monster it is today. Home ownership was lower (sub-25% most of the time – most people rented from private landlords) and mortgages hardly existed (they only really reared their heads in the 1930s), so the cycle, even if visible, would not have been as pronounced as it is in today's debt-ridden fiat era.The top of the last cycle (in the UK) actually came in the third quarter of 2007. The average house price then fell from £183,000 to £149,000 in the first quarter of 2009. It would be 2012 before the market properly got going again.There was definitely a buying window during that 2009 to 2012 period, but prices, especially in London, did not fall by anything as much as many buyers were hoping. That's mostly because there were few forced sellers, because interest rates were slashed. Had there been, then house prices would have come down by a lot more. They fell by a lot more than 18% if you were a foreigner, however, as the pound lost a good 30% in the foreign exchange markets (measured mostly against the US dollar).Go back 18 years and you have the crash of 1989-94. Prices peaked in the third quarter of 1989 at £63,000, before falling to £51,000. Things got going again in the mid-to-late 1990s. The pound lost a lot of value in the forex markets then too.The cycle is working well.Going back 18 years further takes us to 1971-72. The 1970s were a horrible decade economically, but housing was not the worst place to be. Houses were a better inflation hedge than cash. And between 1970 and 1973 house prices actually doubled. After 1973 they positively rocketed.So we are going to declare that Harrison's cycle did not work here. (I'd be interested to hear what Fred has to say about that. There's bound to be an explanation).However go back another 18 years to the early 1950s, and house prices did see declines, before the market took off in the second half of the decade and into the 1960s.Here are UK house prices since 1951, with the cycle peaks market by red arrows.Going back further, I guess World War II upset the cycle. The recession of the early 1920s hurt house prices, then from 1926 to 1939 house prices rose a little, but by so little the market would be better described as flat. They went from £619 to £659. Mortgages barely existed and prices were much more relative to the amount of cash people had. Mortgages saw to that.Six hundred quid for a house! How money has been debased. It's £274,000 now. House price crash 2026? It could happenAll in all I'm going to give the cycle an A-minus. It is not perfect, but, like many cycles, it is a useful guide. And a scenario of higher prices going into 2025-26, followed by a slump, is something I can very much envisage.So if you're looking to buy, start getting your finances in place now. If the slump is anything like 2008, you'll have to move quickly. If it's like 1990-95 you'll have plenty of time.I'll be re-evaluating in 2025, but my own experience when it comes to buying your own home (investing in real estate is different) is that you have to move when the time is right for you, to the place that best fits your circumstances. Trying to second guess the market can lead to unhappy outcomes. House prices only ever go up! And if they do go down, they won't come down as much as you want them to. And one final tip – period property keeps its value better than new build.Thanks for reading. Please subscribe if you haven't already, and check out my paid letter. Lots more great content on its way. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit frisby.substack.com/subscribe

Merryn talks to Fred Harrison, author of #WeAreRent about why land is so lucrative to investors and when house prices will level off.

Fred Harrison is a broadcaster and social campaigner, he predicted the last two major economic crashes more accurately than anyone in the world. In this series of podcasts (now available on The Real Agenda Network) Fred offers ideas for what could be a truly great reset, if we based our economic system on fairness & science.  Shepheard Walwyn www.shepheardwalwyn.com has published Fred's books for nearly 40 years.

Fred Harrison is a broadcaster and social campaigner, he predicted the last two major economic crashes more accurately than anyone in the world. In this series of podcasts (now available on The Real Agenda Network) Fred offers ideas for what could be a truly great reset, if we based our economic system on fairness & science.  Shepheard Walwyn www.shepheardwalwyn.com has published Fred's books for nearly 40 years.

What should you do with your investments when the share market waters get choppy? The answer: stay the course sailor! Listen in as Glen and John discuss:

Fred Harrison is a broadcaster and social campaigner, he predicted the last two major economic crashes more accurately than anyone in the world. In this series of podcasts (now available on The Real Agenda Network) Fred offers ideas for what could be a truly great reset, if we based our economic system on fairness & science.  Shepheard Walwyn www.shepheardwalwyn.com has published Fred's books for nearly 40 years.

Fred Harrison is known as a broadcaster and social campaigner – if he is known at all. And yet, he has predicted the last two major economic crashes (the 1990s and 2008-10) more accurately than anyone in the world. Amazingly he wasn't on TV or advising governments on how to handle it. He was ignored and frozen out of the dialogue of recovery. The publisher Shepheard-Walwyn www.shepheardwalwyn.com is proud to have published Fred's books for nearly 40 years. In this series of podcasts, Fred talks about his journey from newspaperman to economist to social campaigner. He explains how he can do what others say is impossible and why those in control persist with an inferior and dangerous set of economic beliefs. He also offers ideas for what could be a truly great reset, if we based our economic system on fairness and science. Selected podcasts from Shepheard-Walwyn series are available to listen and subscribe free on The Real Agenda Network.

Check 21 - Governments - Tax: Too much is never enoughEveryone pays their taxes.The deceptive simplicity of this principle belies the fact that, obviously enough, not everyone pays their taxes - quite the contrary, and the leaders of the G7 group of the world's richest nations are attempting to address this by imposing a global corporation tax of 15%. Whether this is enforceable remains to be seen. As things stand the global monetary system is set up in such a way that, on the one hand, nations are in a race to the bottom on tax costs to make their countries attractive to multi-nationals, under the delusion that such winning such a competition will benefit them and not harm them; and on the other, their funds are secreted through tax havens to evade contributing to the various infrastructures they benefit from. So instead - these costs fall to us, the citizens.But if we step back from the whole issue of Making The Big Guys Pay - do we need to pay taxes at all? What does this practice really mean to us, as citizens? How might it become more meaningful?In this episode we place these questions in three key contexts - the citizen, the national economy, and our bio-physical world - the biosphere.Talking points:Why do we pay taxes?"Rent", surplus and the common goodThe tax planning industry: not bad people, but in a bad systemIt's about fairness - why are we paying tax and not vast corporations?Nailing down the wealth extractors, rampant individualism, and the fault-linesGlobal taxation vs global tax competition: The G7National taxation vs local taxation: efficiency Centralisation, opacity and local powerTransparency and accountability - Sweden's public tax returnsThe UK's hand-maiden economy Deadweight taxes - thinking back to Adam SmithA society of rent-seekers vs a society of wealth-creatorsEfficiencies in tax expenditures: hypothecated taxes, mutual insurancesCompassionate communities and cost savingsCarbon taxation is a muddleEnd-to-end producer responsibility vs the planet as an economic “externality”Links:Interview with Fred Harrison (audio interview, 30 min): https://www.prosper.org.au/2021/01/we-are-rent-with-fred-harrison/?fbclid=IwAR1zkII88E7f2TKLXQOa9-wppO-27fwDoEz9Bt0JDTpLSTz5MchioDXSjvENicholas Shaxson on Britains Second Empire (...of tax-havens - article):https://taxjustice.net/2019/09/29/tax-havens-britains-second-empire/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Another week, another house price index stating record growth. This time it was the turn of Nationwide, which said prices had risen 10.9 per cent in the year to April, reaching a new high of £242,832 - up by £23,930 compared with 12 months earlier. Most experts say this is down to people's changing lifestyles during the pandemic and the incentive provided by the Government's stamp duty holiday. But are there other forces at play? Fred Harrison, a British author and economic commentator, successfully predicted the previous two property crashes years before they occurred - and his 18-year property cycle theory says that house prices should continue to boom before crashing in 2026. His theory is based on analysis of 300 years of data, and suggests that the underlying force behind rising prices in the property market is the finite supply of land. This, he says, combines with greed and speculation to turbo-charge sentiment and send prices spiralling before a bubble bursts. Given that early predictions of a house price crash during the pandemic were wildly inaccurate, does his model provide a better idea of what might really happen? On this week's podcast, Georgie Frost, Tanya Jefferies and Helen Crane also look at the other factors shaping the housing market, including tantalisingly cheap mortgages with two-year fixed rates as low as 0.99 per cent. But aside from these headline-grabbing rates, the typical mortgage has actually become slightly more expensive in the last year - so why are experts saying locking in for five years is still a good idea? One group that isn't so happy about this year's house price increases is first-time buyers - especially those who took out Help to Buy loans a few years ago and are now paying back inflated sums into the Government coffers based on their homes' increased values. Helen discusses whether they should hold off paying back the loans in the face of spiralling interest - and whether today's first-time buyers should still consider using Help to Buy at what is widely tipped to be the top of the market. Do you want an 'essential', comfortable or luxurious retirement? New research explains how much you will need to put away to get the lifestyle you want in your later years Away from housing, we talk about the latest research telling us how much we need for a decent retirement - depending on whether we want an 'essential', comfortable or more luxurious time of it in our older years. Tanya explains how much people should be putting away, and how that changes if you are single rather than part of a couple. We also discuss controversial comments made by Paul Johnson from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), who said most people don't need to worry too much about saving into their pension until they are in their 50s. Is it really wise for younger people to push pensions down their list of financial priorities? Finally, we answer a question from a reader who took £20,000 out of their pension pot to deal with Covid cashflow issues - but is now worried that their tax-free annual allowance has taken a hit.

Another week, another house price index stating record growth. This time it was the turn of Nationwide, which said prices had risen 10.9 per cent in the year to April, reaching a new high of £242,832 - up by £23,930 compared with 12 months earlier. Most experts say this is down to people's changing lifestyles during the pandemic and the incentive provided by the Government's stamp duty holiday. But are there other forces at play? Fred Harrison, a British author and economic commentator, successfully predicted the previous two property crashes years before they occurred - and his 18-year property cycle theory says that house prices should continue to boom before crashing in 2026. His theory is based on analysis of 300 years of data, and suggests that the underlying force behind rising prices in the property market is the finite supply of land. This, he says, combines with greed and speculation to turbo-charge sentiment and send prices spiralling before a bubble bursts. Given that early predictions of a house price crash during the pandemic were wildly inaccurate, does his model provide a better idea of what might really happen? On this week's podcast, Georgie Frost, Tanya Jefferies and Helen Crane also look at the other factors shaping the housing market, including tantalisingly cheap mortgages with two-year fixed rates as low as 0.99 per cent. But aside from these headline-grabbing rates, the typical mortgage has actually become slightly more expensive in the last year - so why are experts saying locking in for five years is still a good idea? One group that isn't so happy about this year's house price increases is first-time buyers - especially those who took out Help to Buy loans a few years ago and are now paying back inflated sums into the Government coffers based on their homes' increased values. Helen discusses whether they should hold off paying back the loans in the face of spiralling interest - and whether today's first-time buyers should still consider using Help to Buy at what is widely tipped to be the top of the market. Do you want an 'essential', comfortable or luxurious retirement? New research explains how much you will need to put away to get the lifestyle you want in your later years Away from housing, we talk about the latest research telling us how much we need for a decent retirement - depending on whether we want an 'essential', comfortable or more luxurious time of it in our older years. Tanya explains how much people should be putting away, and how that changes if you are single rather than part of a couple. We also discuss controversial comments made by Paul Johnson from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), who said most people don't need to worry too much about saving into their pension until they are in their 50s. Is it really wise for younger people to push pensions down their list of financial priorities? Finally, we answer a question from a reader who took £20,000 out of their pension pot to deal with Covid cashflow issues - but is now worried that their tax-free annual allowance has taken a hit.

How we can abolish all taxation! The economist and acknowledged recession predictor, Fred Harrison talks to The Real Agenda's Tom Burgess about how we can truly build a better more equitable society. He explains how we could abolish all taxation and still have enough public funds to pay for all the services that government provides its people and find a path forward to a sustainable economy It is all about how we manage land, that precious resource which is very limited supply. More at www.wearerent.com or www.landresearchtrust.org. The Real Agenda with Tom Burgess is a part of The Real Agenda Network of progressive political podcasts www.realagenda.org

Fred Harrison, CEO of Ritchies IGA, spoke with Tom Elliott.   See omnystudio.com/policies/listener for privacy information.

As health professionals, we often struggle with things like “decision fatigue” and “empathy fatigue” which often affects our personal health. You may have trouble sleeping or managing stress, and in turn, might also affect your ability to make decisions and lead your team.In this episode, Shane and Angie Saunders from Breathe Me talks about how the simple habit of breathing can change literally everything — from our sleep patterns, habits, immune system, stress tolerance, and many more!They also share to us how we can start tapping into this super power and turn our life for the better.Check out the full episode!SHOW NOTES[0:01:27.2] Rapid-fire questions: reading list, who inspires you, childhood aspirations, motto you live by[0:06:41.8] What’s the journey like for Shane and Angie to becoming breathing coaches[0:15:34.3] What is Breathe Me and how do they help people?[0:17:40.0] How breathing helps leaders improve their performance and leadership, how breathing helps with “decision fatigue” and immune system[0:22:57.4] How breathing can help you sleep better and think sharper[0:27:18.3] How does breathing play a role in sleep and recovery?[0:29:49.9] Winding down with a glass of wine v. breathing[0:35:09.2] What holds people back from giving their best performance?[0:38:44.4] Learn more about Breathe MeQUOTES“It’s not in the words… it’s in the practice.“If you’re producing results in the world that are sub-standard to you, your breathing is one of the first places that I would go to look.”“When the CO2 is not present in the right amounts, you’re going to get a massive amount of tension all throughout the body.”MENTIONSBoom Bust: House Prices, Banking and the Depression of 2010 by Fred Harrison (book)Blue Light blocking glassesBiostrapEight Superhuman Habits (article)CONNECT WITH SHANE & ANGIEBreathe Me (site)LinkedIn (Shane)LinkedIn (Angie)FacebookInstagram If you like this episode of the Grow My Clinic podcast, please don't forget to like, share, comment, and give us your ratings on iTunes and Stitcher.We appreciate your support and feedback!

Our guest is Fred Harrison, who is the CEO of Ritchies Supermarkets. We talk about how the brand has made it all this way to become the longest serving supermarket in Australia, the importance of customers and community and the industry more largely. Fred started out working for Ritchies 45 years ago as a trolley boy, so it’s safe to say he has a lot of knowledge on the company! The supermarket celebrates the 150 year milestone this year, and they are looking to use old tactics to bring an exciting future.

Karl returns for the 1st monthly show, with a focus on Property Rights. Just how much of an advantage are they and how can we re-balance these opportunities? Along the way we visit a London catwalk and hear from Fred Harrison alongside host of worldly problems. To a one world rent!Show notes will now be stored on the prosper site.

House prices move in an 18 year cycle. That is the theory of Fred Harrison, who used his cycle to forecast the 2008 slump after the financial crisis.  If his theory holds, the housing market will have a short wobble this year and next, followed by a final sharp rise in prices to 2025. Does that stand up to scrutiny? Simon Lambert and Georgie Frost discuss the 28 year property cycle on this excerpt from the This is Money podcast.

Leading Georgist author Fred Harrison (sharetherents.org) joins to discuss the frontiers of the linguistics battle for humanity to rediscover their civic rights to a share of the rents. Thanks for all your support and the various emails from around the world. Show notes - http://www.earthsharing.org.au/1uC

Ti spiego in parole semplici il Ciclo Immobiliare Dei 18 anni, e perché dovresti impegnarti a trovare delle fonti alternative di informazione in relazione agli investimenti immobiliari.L’economista britannico Fred Harrison, ha ideato questo ciclo immobiliare andando a ritroso nel tempo per 300 anni. Incredibile, coincide con la storia per come la conosciamo.Dai uno sguardo al video per approfondire questa teoria! Potrai inoltre scaricare gratis il report che ho preparato in merito.Capire il funzionamento, ti consentirà di fare una scelta migliore ed efficace nella gestione dei tuoi investimenti immobiliari. Link: www.micheleschirru.it/ciclo-immobiliare-dei-18-anni

Ti spiego in parole semplici il Ciclo Immobiliare Dei 18 anni, e perché dovresti impegnarti a trovare delle fonti alternative di informazione in relazione agli investimenti immobiliari.L’economista britannico Fred Harrison, ha ideato questo ciclo immobiliare andando a ritroso nel tempo per 300 anni. Incredibile, coincide con la storia per come la conosciamo.Dai uno sguardo al video per approfondire questa teoria! Potrai inoltre scaricare gratis il report che ho preparato in merito.Capire il funzionamento, ti consentirà di fare una scelta migliore ed efficace nella gestione dei tuoi investimenti immobiliari. Link: www.micheleschirru.it/ciclo-immobiliare-dei-18-anni

Partendo un post che ho pubblicato di recente sul mio blog, ho voluto analizzare questo tema caldissimo, ecco il link all'articolo originale: http://bit.ly/2ipbbU8 Investire in appartamenti da affittare, grazie alla generale stabilità offerta dal mercato immobiliare, ripaga sempre tutti gli sforzi profusi.Non lasciarti spaventare dai media e dagli allarmismi, il mattone, nonostante possa vivere dei momenti ciclici di rallentamento, non avrai mai una perdita effettiva di valore.L’economista Fred Harrison, ha definito il ciclo immobiliare avente una durata di 18 anni. Io personalmente trovo quest’ultimo studio il più veritiero e verosimile, andando a ritroso nel tempo coincide infatti con la storia per come la conosciamo.Concentrandoti sugli appartamenti, piuttosto che immobili di maggiore rilievo come ville e case in generale, avrai la possibilità di avere un patrimonio immobiliare molto versatile e ben gestibile.L’appartamento, rispetto ad una casa indipendente, ti darà un coefficiente di rivendibilità maggiore rispetto alla media.Nel contesto immediatamente collegato, un appartamento, comunicherà con ampio raggio a qualunque target decida di indirizzarti nel momento in cui debba trovare il giusto inquilino.Come risultato, otterrai che il tuo target in termini di potenziali inquilini sarà vasto e variegato.Inoltre, le spese di manutenzione, ordinaria e straordinaria, le tasse, saranno sensibilmente inferiori a quelle che potresti sostenere con una casa.Ti ricordo che potrai seguire e sottoscrivere il Podcast su iTunes, se utilizzi un dispositivo Apple, oppure su Spreaker se utilizzi un dispositivo Android o Windows Phone. Links UtiliW: www.micheleschirru.itE: info@micheleschirru.itPer conoscermi meglio ti invito a seguirmi: - sulla mia pagina Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/micheleschirrumusic - sul mio profilo Facebook privato: http://www.facebook.com/micheleschirru85 - su Twitter con username @Michele_SchirruAll music by David Szesztay - Creative Commons - Attribuzione Non commerciale 3.0 Unported (CC BY-NC 3.0)

Partendo un post che ho pubblicato di recente sul mio blog, ho voluto analizzare questo tema caldissimo, ecco il link all'articolo originale: http://bit.ly/2ipbbU8 Investire in appartamenti da affittare, grazie alla generale stabilità offerta dal mercato immobiliare, ripaga sempre tutti gli sforzi profusi.Non lasciarti spaventare dai media e dagli allarmismi, il mattone, nonostante possa vivere dei momenti ciclici di rallentamento, non avrai mai una perdita effettiva di valore.L’economista Fred Harrison, ha definito il ciclo immobiliare avente una durata di 18 anni. Io personalmente trovo quest’ultimo studio il più veritiero e verosimile, andando a ritroso nel tempo coincide infatti con la storia per come la conosciamo.Concentrandoti sugli appartamenti, piuttosto che immobili di maggiore rilievo come ville e case in generale, avrai la possibilità di avere un patrimonio immobiliare molto versatile e ben gestibile.L’appartamento, rispetto ad una casa indipendente, ti darà un coefficiente di rivendibilità maggiore rispetto alla media.Nel contesto immediatamente collegato, un appartamento, comunicherà con ampio raggio a qualunque target decida di indirizzarti nel momento in cui debba trovare il giusto inquilino.Come risultato, otterrai che il tuo target in termini di potenziali inquilini sarà vasto e variegato.Inoltre, le spese di manutenzione, ordinaria e straordinaria, le tasse, saranno sensibilmente inferiori a quelle che potresti sostenere con una casa.Ti ricordo che potrai seguire e sottoscrivere il Podcast su iTunes, se utilizzi un dispositivo Apple, oppure su Spreaker se utilizzi un dispositivo Android o Windows Phone. Links UtiliW: www.micheleschirru.itE: info@micheleschirru.itPer conoscermi meglio ti invito a seguirmi: - sulla mia pagina Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/micheleschirrumusic - sul mio profilo Facebook privato: http://www.facebook.com/micheleschirru85 - su Twitter con username @Michele_SchirruAll music by David Szesztay - Creative Commons - Attribuzione Non commerciale 3.0 Unported (CC BY-NC 3.0)

Fred Harrison’s latest clip on the importance of sacred rents to community cohesion, then Karl sums up 3 months of economic detectivery insights into the pressures on the eastern seaboard. Included is the tax loophole of the week. Send any of your loophole findings to renegades@earthsharing.org.au Show notes - http://www.earthsharing.org.au/1pN

Lets tell a story using a collage of samples from Wall Streets latest weapons of mass deception plus some of the many interviews held over the year including Fred Harrison, Michael Hudson, Phil Anderson, Mary Rose and Maureen Taylor. Music Dr Turtle, All India RadioShow notes post camping - holidays via www.earthsharing.org.au

Economist, author and social activist Fred Harrison joins Callum on the podcast to discuss his remarkable 18 year business cycle theory. Fred reveals… How he forecast the collapse of 2008 11 years in advance… The secret to understanding the business cycle… What indicators he watches to guide his investment decisions… Why governments choose to ignore policies that could stop the boom bust nature of the ‘market' economy… The vested interests that control the political process and society… The tax reform that could deliver prosperity for everyone…  Why the corrupt culture of the West has been exported around the world… How the IMF, the World Bank and Western governments hijacked reform in Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union… What's stoking property markets all over the world… Fred's fears for the times we live in… When the next major downturn is due… Fred's forecast dates for the global property cycle…. And why true tax reform is a moral issue, not an economic one... Plus more!

Fred Harrison & Karl Williams join to discuss the age old battle between the rulers of the earth and the people, and where this much heralded document failed to recognise our common rights. Show Notes

A reprise of the last 4 weeks shows with snippets from Michael Hudson, Fred Harrison, Alanna Hartzok and Phil Anderson. Karl reinforces some of the central themes in this age of monopoly. Wealth of Generations reportPhilip Anderson via Daily Reckoning - Cycles, Trends and ForecastsPress release on States handout politics rather than ensuring State sovereigntyReal Estate 4 RansomMore show notes: http://www.earthsharing.org.au/1fE 

Phoa we have almost moved office, but enjoy this one, Fred is one of the best!Fred Harrison: His first book, The Power in the Land (1983), predicted the economic crisis of 1992. He followed this with a 10-year forecast (published in The Chaos Makers [1997]) that a global financial crisis would be triggered when house prices peaked in 2007. He wrote:By 2007 Britain and most of the other industrially advanced economies will be in the throes of frenzied activity in the land market…Land prices will be near their 18-year peak…on the verge of the collapse that will presage the global depression of 2010.Real estate “bubbles” can be neutralised, but governments refuse to reform the financial system. They are now laying the foundations for the next global property boom/bust, which will create even greater devastation than that which followed the implosion of the West’s banks in 2008.We start on human rights, move into land rent theory, then on to policy adaption sculpted for the rentier. Visit www.earthsharing.org.au for full show notes.Photo - Joshua Earle.Music - Poddington Bear.

The first of two programmes discussing the UK property market, and our economic and social policy, with Michael Hampton of Global Edge Investors and Fred Harrison of The Renegade Economist . Read about Fred’s 18-year cycle at Moneyweek. (Apologies for the levels) See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

The first of two programmes discussing the UK property market, and our economic and social policy, with Michael Hampton of Global Edge Investors and Fred Harrison of The Renegade Economist .Read about Fred's 18-year cycle at Moneyweek.(Apologies for the levels) See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit frisby.substack.com/subscribe

The first of two programmes discussing the UK property market, and our economic and social policy, with Michael Hampton of Global Edge Investors and Fred Harrison of The Renegade Economist .Read about Fred's 18-year cycle at Moneyweek. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit frisby.substack.com/subscribe

The first of two programmes discussing the UK property market, and our economic and social policy, with Michael Hampton of Global Edge Investors and Fred Harrison of The Renegade Economist . Read about Fred’s 18-year cycle at Moneyweek. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Fred Harrison, The Renegade Economist, discusses the 18-Year Property Cycle and suggests ways for Gordon Brown, or whoever should succeed him, to avoid boom and bust in the future. Fred’s prophetic 2005 Moneyweek Article. And his more recent from November 2007. Plus Michael Hampton of Global Edge Investors shares his views on Fred’s cycle and the London property market. View Mike’s video for talkview.com on... See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Fred Harrison, The Renegade Economist, discusses the 18-Year Property Cycle and suggests ways for Gordon Brown, or whoever should succeed him, to avoid boom and bust in the future.Fred's prophetic 2005 Moneyweek Article. And his more recent from November 2007.Plus Michael Hampton of Global Edge Investors shares his views on Fred's cycle and the London property market.View Mike's video for talkview.com on Fred Harrison and his 18-year Cycle here. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit frisby.substack.com/subscribe