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What is Trump doing to extended deterrence? I got Polymarket to create a market on whether a US ally will acquire nuclear weapons in 2025. It's currently trading at 8%. Are we buyers or sellers? To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Vipin Narang, professor at MIT, who served as Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense responsible for nuclear deterrence policy during the Biden administration; Pranay Vaddi, a senior fellow at the Center for Nuclear Security Policy at MIT who worked on arms control and non-proliferation on Biden's National Security Council; and Junichi Fukuda, senior research fellow at Tokyo's Sasakawa Peace Foundation. We get into… The historical development of the American nuclear umbrella, including the “software” and “hardware” components of deterrence, The probability that an American ally will proliferate by 2030, and which countries are the most likely candidates, Why France proliferated despite US objections, How the world might respond to nuclear ambitions from Poland, Japan, or Saudi Arabia, China's nuclear modernization and deterrence strategies for a multi-polar world. Outro music: Tom Lehrer - Who's Next? (YouTube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
What is Trump doing to extended deterrence? I got Polymarket to create a market on whether a US ally will acquire nuclear weapons in 2025. It's currently trading at 8%. Are we buyers or sellers? To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Vipin Narang, professor at MIT, who served as Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense responsible for nuclear deterrence policy during the Biden administration; Pranay Vaddi, a senior fellow at the Center for Nuclear Security Policy at MIT who worked on arms control and non-proliferation on Biden's National Security Council; and Junichi Fukuda, senior research fellow at Tokyo's Sasakawa Peace Foundation. We get into… The historical development of the American nuclear umbrella, including the “software” and “hardware” components of deterrence, The probability that an American ally will proliferate by 2030, and which countries are the most likely candidates, Why France proliferated despite US objections, How the world might respond to nuclear ambitions from Poland, Japan, or Saudi Arabia, China's nuclear modernization and deterrence strategies for a multi-polar world. Here's the RAND paper cited: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1GUMnuxWoapmEYCw3g3NMUHxzZ6hVwWPi/view?usp=sharing Outro music: Tom Lehrer - Who's Next? (YouTube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Donald Tusk — not the indulgent follow up to the perfect Fleetwood Mac Album Rumours — mused recently about the future of deterrence in Europe. The discussion reminds of the challenges of extended deterrence, the oh so very French debate about nuclear weapons and European security, and the vibe shift that has raised questions about the future US security guarantee. Links of Note: Building a Euro Deterrent: Easier Said Than Done, by Pranay Vaddi and Vipin Narang https://open.substack.com/pub/strategicsimplicity/p/building-a-euro-deterrent-easier?r=1l9z0c&utm_medium=ios Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!
Social identity theory and international relations; the behavior of rogue states; US nuclear assurance to South Korea; the risk from deepfakes and how to address them; the current state of sports diplomacy; and Marcus is a complicated individualSubscribe in Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choiceAsk a question or leave a comment for a future podcast episodeFurther Reading:Peter Baker and David E. Sanger. “In Turn to Deterrence, Biden Vows ‘End' of North Korean Regime if It Attacks.” The New York Times.Jeffrey M. Kaplow. 2022. “State Compliance and the Track Record of International Security Institutions: Evidence from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime.” Journal of Global Security Studies 7(1).Vipin Narang. 2017. “Why Kim Jong Un wouldn't be irrational to use a nuclear bomb first.” The Washington Post.Claire Parker and Ana Vanessa Herrero. 2022. “Colombia discovers two shipwrecks, releases new images of sunken treasure.” The Washington Post.See all Cheap Talk episodes
Antariksh Matters #1: Dual-use Dilemmas in the OEWG on Space Threats— Pranav R SatyanathThe first session of the Open-Ended Working Group (OEWG) on Reducing Space Threats was held last week between the 9th and 13th of May in Geneva. The OEWG was created under the requirement of the United Nations Resolution 75/36 which called on member states to exchange views on norms, threats and behaviours in outer space.Deliberations on matters of space security are not new. They’ve been taking place under the framework of the Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space (PAROS), with countries divided between two broad themes: first, whether to regulate space capabilities or to regulate space activities; and second, whether to negotiate legally-binding treaties or whether to agree on non legally binding transparency and confidence-building measures.The latest set of deliberations have attempted to focus on the norms, principles and behavioural guidelines that can be established in order to make space a secure environment for all countries. However, since space capabilities and space activities carried out by countries are intrinsically linked, and since space assets have both civilian and military applications, any attempt to regulate space activities will have both direct and indirect consequences on the interpretation of international law. The dilemma of dual-use capabilities, was highlighted in a presentation made by David Koplow of Georgetown University, who pointed to the intersection of dual-use capabilities in space and the Law of Armed Conflict (LoAC). Koplow argues that by making it harder to distinguish civilian and military assets in space, countries may be violating a vital tenet of the LoAC. During an armed conflict, any asset of a country used for military purposes can be targeted by the adversary. Therefore, countries must separate their civilian and military assets to the greatest extent possible.Making this distinction in practice is, however, a challenge as countries regularly use civilian assets for carrying out military activities. For example, civilian rockets are used to launch military satellites and the Global Positioning System (GPS) and similar systems are used for both civilian and military purposes. Some countries also use commercial Earth-imaging services for gathering intelligence on an adversary's military capabilities, making them potential targets during a conflict.One possible solution to this problem was suggested by Almudena Azcárate Ortega, a researcher at the United Nations Institute of Disarmament Research (UNIDIR). Ortega proposed that countries could choose to distinguish their space capabilities into two categories:Dual-use assets: Space capabilities that are designed to perform both civilian and military functions. GPS satellites and similar systems fall into this category.Dual-capable assets: Space capabilities that perform civilian functions but that can be repurposed for military functions. Satellites used for debris removal or on-orbit servicing fall into this category.Categorising space assets as dual-use or dual-purpose may indeed serve useful. However, some capabilities are more difficult to distinguish than others. For example, it is reported that Ukrainian forces are using Starlink satellites for assisting in drone strikes in Russia. Starlink is a space-based Internet service provided by the American company SpaceX. It is alleged that Russia attempted to cyberattacks on Starlink in order to prevent its use by Ukrainian forces.As dual-use space technologies proliferate to more countries, the need for regulating both capabilities and activity will likely become a greater challenge for the international community.Cyberpolitik: China's Position in OEWG (2021-2025) on Information Security— Megha PardhiBetween 28 March and 1 April 2022, the UN held the second substantive session of the "Open-ended Working Group on the Security of and the use of Information and Communications Technologies" (OEWG (2021-2025)). This is the second such working group constituted by the UN on information security. The OEWG (2021-2025) was formed in Nov 2020 and commenced in 2021. The final report of the working group will be presented to the UN General Assembly in 2025.These working groups are the international community's attempts to shape norms governing cyberspace. Developing norms of behavior in cyberspace has been a contested issue for a long time. Russia was among the first countries to propose rules and norms on cyberspace. However, early attempts fell prey to geopolitical tug of war.In the recently concluded session, many countries have put out statements expressing their position, suggestions, and concerns. In the statement released by the Chinese delegation, the Chinese government seems more worried about cyberspace norms being used against China or basically whoever does not fit into the US' definition of acceptability. The Chinese delegation made four key points:Maintaining peace in cyberspace is crucial. The division of cyberspace into peaceful and non-peaceful periods would send the wrong signal to the international community.Security of cyberspace is necessary for all countries. The statement also has the usual rhetoric of abandoning 'Zero-sum thinking' and 'cold war' mentality.First mover advantage in cyberspace should not be weaponized. China objected to the use of unilateral sanctions and weaponizing the first-mover advantage 'some countries' have over others.The Chinese statement reflected that some countries are creating "deliberately creating closed, exclusive circles for discussing supply chain issues."Objections over the division of activities in the peaceful and non-peaceful periods are understandable. Activities in cyberspace tend to intersect personal and state matters. Wars often blur this distinction. However, normalizing such division in cyberspace might set a dangerous precedent for the norms of behavior in cyberspace.There is a veiled reference to the Quad in the statement. The reference to "closed, exclusive circles for discussing supply chain issues" is similar to the terminology used when Chinese leaders and foreign ministry spokespersons talk about Quad and AUKUS. This again reflects the fact that the Quad and AUKUS have got Beijing worried about similar groupings emerging in cyberspace. Beijing's fear of isolation might seem contradictory as China's own 'Great Firewall' has strived to separate Chinese cyberspace from the world. However, there is a difference between choosing to stay isolated and being forced to isolate. Currently, Beijing decides the rules of operation in China's cyberspace. If states form an alliance to isolate China in cyberspace, the rules would be different. The Chinese government understands it could be detrimental to China's long-term interests.Additionally, the point of reference to the Quad and AUKUS is not just Beijing's fear of isolation. These references and the complaints of a 'cold war' mentality also mean China is trying to project itself as a norms follower while projecting others as 'arm twisting' bullies trying to get their own way. This is most evident in the fourth point of China's statement which roughly says, "this makes people doubt that the real goal of some countries participating in the UN information security process is to build 'international rules of cyberspace that other countries abide by, but they are above all countries’" (这令人不得不怀疑,某些国家参与联合国信息安全进程的真实目标是,构建 "其他各国都遵守,而其自身则凌驾于各国的网络空间国际规则").The war in Ukraine also loomed over the second session of the OEWG (2021-2025). Some states expressed concerns over the way Ukraine War will shape behavior in cyberspace and objections and statements over cyber activities during the war. China's objection to the use of unilateral sanctions and weaponizing first-mover advantage by 'some countries' most likely refers to the sanctions imposed by US and allies on Russia. Again, Chinese leaders have used similar terminology to express their displeasure over sanctions on Russia.Antariksh Matters #2: How Adversaries Might Challenge India’s Use of Space— Aditya RamanathanSceptics sometimes ask me how, in fact, India’s space assets could be threatened in the future and what forms such threats could take. It’s true that it’s hard to envisage what such attacks might look like. Our understanding of space warfare is limited by a merciful lack of precedence. Limited as our understanding may be, it’s worth trying to think of the conditions under which India’s chief adversaries, China and Pakistan, might use space warfare capabilities against it. Broadly, India could face space warfare under three types of circumstances: peacetime (meaning the absence of unusual tensions), crisis (a spike in tensions and/or standoffs, skirmishes) or conflict (a state of violent hostilities in one or more theatres).In the table below, I attempt to map the tools of space warfare to the circumstances India is likely to face.Peacetime In peacetime, adversaries will focus on demonstrating capabilities, probing defences, mounting disruptive cyber attacks, and infiltrating computer worms and viruses. Demonstrations of capabilities can help an adversary deter future threats. These could include ‘dazzling’ satellites with lasers, electronic jamming or spoofing, or conducting non-kinetic rendezvous and proximity operations around a satellite.CrisesIn crises, adversaries will primarily want to signal not just the existence of a capability but also the resolve to use it imminently if its demands are not met. Therefore, while an RPO craft circling around a satellite in peacetime is mainly a demonstration of capability, in a crisis, it is a coercive act meant to shape the outcomes of high stakes bargaining. ConflictIn conflict, the tools of space warfare will most likely be used for effect – to actively deny the use of space and consequently degrade the effectiveness of the adversary’s Earth-based forces. An adversary could strike in six ways during a conflict: A splendid first strike could deny India the effective use of space. Such a strike, usually carried out at the outset of a conflict (the frequently discussed ‘space Pearl Harbor’), would probably be part of a broader plan to degrade Indian forces with simultaneous strikes in space and on Earth. A graduated response would involve managing an exchange of blows and seeking to end it on favourable terms. This would entail targeting specific space capabilities in retaliation and attempting to dissuade the other side from further action.A focused strike targets specific capabilities for a finite set of time in a bid to degrade specific Earth-based capabilities. An Indian strike on Chinese ISR satellites over the Indian Ocean is an example of such a strike.Disruptive strikes create uncertainty about the reliability of space assets. These are low grade, seemingly random strikes that force the state under attack to continually react rather than seize the initiative.Disproportionate retaliation occurs in response to a smaller strike and is meant to dissuade the adversary from launching further attacks. Disproportionate retaliation must remain partial or temporary to provide the adversary an incentive to halt space warfare.A catalytic strike seeks to precipitate third party intervention in a conflict and force its termination on the best terms available. The American political scientist Vipin Narang argues that Pakistan has, in the past, used the catalytic threat of nuclear strikes to hasten American intervention in crises with India. A kinetic attack from a future Pakistani ASAT missile could catalyse frantic calls for ending a conflict that is tilting in India’s favour.To be clear, none of these types of strikes falls into discrete or self-contained categories. A focused strike can lead to a graduated response, which can, in turn, devolve into disruptive strikes or escalate into disproportionate retaliation. These categories are simply meant to clarify the likely intent behind the waging of space warfare. There are reasons for the aforementioned sceptics to be, well, sceptical about the value of an exercise such as this. In the real world, any target state would find it difficult to accurately gauge an adversary’s intentions while an attack is underway. Also, future contingencies are likely to take unexpected forms and contain surprises. However, the value of this sort of undertaking is that it can (a) help clarify the sort of situations that can trigger an attack on space assets, (b) provide clarity on the sort of challenges India will need to deter in the coming years. As the much-used adage goes, plans are useless but planning is indispensable.Siliconpolitik: The Transatlantic Semiconductor Alliance in the Making— Pranay Kotasthane(First published on takshashila.org.in)Over the last couple of years, we have consistently argued that in order to make the semiconductor supply chain resilient, plurilateral cooperation is a necessity, not a choice. Subsidising semiconductor firms in the hope of achieving national self-sufficiency is counterproductive and futile. Futile in the limited sense that such measures won’t achieve the aim of full indigenisation. Counterproductive because a sole focus on domestic subsidies would displace the opportunity to really make a resilient, China-independent, cutting-edge semiconductor supply chain.Nevertheless, as it so often happens, subsidies are an easier policy option. This pro-business instrument—as against a pro-market one—also suits semiconductor firms better. Subsidies finance their heavy capital investments in the short term. And so, we had a number of national governments—the US, the EU, Japan, South Korea, China, India, and Taiwan to name a few—launch their own versions of semiconductor subsidy programmes.However, it does seem that the tide is now turning from a public and foreign policy perspective. Apart from subsidies, governments are now realising the value of coordinating their efforts. In an earlier post, I had discussed a reported semiconductor alliance involving the US, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Although we haven’t heard about this grouping since then, there is now a new grouping that we need to take note of.The US and EU announced a new initiative on similar lines as part of the US-EU Trade and Technology Council (TTC) that concluded in Paris on Monday, 16th May. The detailed joint statement shows that the scope of this transatlantic partnership on technology is vast. Initiatives were announced on areas as diverse as solar supply chains, climate and cleantech, rare earth materials, technology standards and semiconductors. For this post, let’s focus on understanding what the announcements on semiconductors mean to the US, the EU, and India.The Transatlantic Approach for SemiconductorsAs part of the initiative, the two parties agreed on two key areas:That the US and the EU will coordinate their respective chip investments so that it doesn’t end up being a ‘subsidy race’ to the bottom. In practice, this means that the US and EU are likely to share information with each other on their planned fab investments, the companies they plan to target, and so on. In ideal circumstances, they would like to reach a stage where the EU has enough production capacity for automotive chips, while the US invests in production capacity for leading-edge nodes. In the future, the two partners would also want to agree on preferential treatment for their own fabless companies to access the fabs in each other’s national jurisdiction. For now, they have agreed on consulting each other on subsidies for semiconductor firms.The two partners also agreed to develop an early warning detection system for supply chain disruptions. A similar announcement was also made as part of the Quad Semiconductor Supply Chain initiative during the last Summit meeting, where the four members agreed to “map capacity, identify vulnerabilities, and bolster supply-chain security for semiconductors and their vital components.” The motivation for this initiative is to keep a closer eye on wafer capacities across the globe so that stockpiling or additional capacity addition can be coordinated.Both the moves indicate the willingness to collaborate with partners instead of going it all alone.The India AngleThese moves are consequential for India. Apart from the US, the EU has a Trade and Technology Council arrangement with just one other nation-state—India. India should use this arrangement and become a part of this semiconductor supply chain alliance. There’s also the opportunity to combine the US-EU effort with the Quad’s Semiconductor Supply Chain Initiative, as the goals of the two mechanisms are identical.With these new semiconductor alliances taking shape, it’s important for India to become a part of these formations. Foreign Policy in the Information Age needs to go beyond the traditional defensive approach of ‘protecting’ one’s critical technologies and instead become a key driver for enhancing India’s high-tech power.Our Reading Menu[Article] Why Drones Have Not Revolutionized War: The Enduring Hider-Finder Competition in Air Warfare by Antonio Calcara, Andrea Gilli, Mauro Gilli, Raffaele Marchetti, Ivan Zaccagnini[Book] The Atlas of AI: Power, Politics, and the Planetary Costs of Artificial Intelligence by Kate Crawford This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit hightechir.substack.com
In response to the tense border situation between Russia and Ukraine, Sen Roger Wicket said first strike nuclear is an option! The build up of more than 100K Russian troops, and a video talk between Presidents Biden and Putin, has rattled some lawmakers. U.S. Senator Wicker serves on the Armed Services Committee, and said a NUCLEAR first strike against Russia is an option ! Guests Sen Wicker, former Hawaii Tulsi Gabbard, MIT poly sci prof Vipin Narang and the late Cold War expert McGeorge Bundy. The discussion: The U.S. does NOT have a "no first use" policy and could Senator Roger Wicker's threats cause another Cold War or worse?
Over the course of our nuclear history, smaller (potentially more usable) nuclear weapons have come in all shapes and sizes — from so-called backpack bombs to the Davy Crockett nuclear rifle... And last year, the US deployed a new one. But, what exactly are these things? Do we need them? And what does the deployment of a new generation of them reveal about the US’s nuclear posture? On this episode of Things That Go Boom, we talk about low-yield nuclear weapons -- or what we’ve affectionately termed, “baby nukes.” GUESTS: Matt Korda, Federation of American Scientists; Rose Gottemoeller, Stanford University ADDITIONAL READING: The Littlest Boy, Adam Rawnsley and David Brown. Nuclear Notebook: United States Nuclear Weapons, 2021, Hans Kristensen and Matt Korda. After the Apocalypse: US Nuclear Policy, Heather Williams, Vipin Narang, Beatrice Finh, and Togzhan Kassenova.
Ronak Desai, Research Associate at the Mittal Institute, moderates a discussion between Nirupama Rao, Former Foreign Secretary of India, and Vipin Narang, Associate Professor of Political Science at MIT, as they explore how the potential outcomes of the 2020 US presidential election may impact the region of South Asia.
On September 2, 2020, the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) hosted a virtual panel discussion on a joint report from CNAS and the Center for Strategic and International Studies entitled "Toward a More Proliferated World?" by Eric Brewer, with Ilan Goldenberg, Joseph Rodgers, Maxwell Simon, and Kaleigh Thomas. The event featured a panel discussion with Eric Brewer, Rebecca Friedman Lissner, and Vipin Narang, moderated by Ilan Goldenberg.
Zack, Jenn, and Alex discuss the Trump administration’s decision to put a mini nuclear weapon on a US submarine for the first time. They explain what a mini-nuke actually is, the reasons for this decision, the cases for and against doing it, and how to think about the future of nuclear weapons policy in a world of renewed great power politics and weakening arms control agreements. Zack confesses his fascination with pre-modern warfare, Jenn coins a Ringo Starr theory of nuclear policy, and Alex describes himself as an “end of the world enthusiast.” References: This is a really great summary of the debate on putting mini-nukes on submarines. Here’s a link to the Trump administration’s Nuclear Posture Review. Zack talked about Vipin Narang’s War on the Rocks piece on the discrimination problem when using low-yield nukes. Alex discussed Russia’s “escalate to de-escalate” strategy. Jenn mentioned the idea of a “nuclear taboo” and also referenced the book Thinking about the Unthinkable. Here’s a link to the “mineshaft gap” scene in Dr. Strangelove. Alex broke the story about the Trump administration’s new landmine policy, and also wrote a great (and terrifying) feature on how nuclear war could kill us all. Hosts: Zack Beauchamp (@zackbeauchamp), senior correspondent, Vox Jennifer Williams (@jenn_ruth), senior foreign editor, Vox Alex Ward (@AlexWardVox), national security reporter, Vox More to explore: Subscribe for free to Today, Explained, Vox’s daily news podcast to help you understand the news, hosted by Sean Rameswaram. About Vox: Vox is a news network that helps you cut through the noise and understand what's really driving the events in the headlines. Follow Us: Vox.com Newsletter: Vox Sentences Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Nuclear war feels unthinkable, but how much peace does nuclear deterrence guarantee? Do nuclear programmes truly deter or compel adversaries in the real world? And can we imagine a world where 20+ countries have nuclear weapons? Vipin Narang joins Pavan Srinath on Episode 124 of The Pragati Podcast to dive into the world of nuclear weapons and strategy. He shares the evolution of our understanding of nuclear strategy from early ideas of mutually assured destruction. The Pragati Podcast is a weekly talkshow on public policy, economics and international relations hosted by Pavan Srinath. Vipin Narang is an Associate Professor of Political Science at MIT and a member of MIT's Security Studies Programme. He published his first book Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era in 2014, and is currently working on his second book, Strategies of Nuclear Proliferation, in which he explores how states pursue nuclear weapons. He is on Twitter at @NarangVipin. Also check out: Pragati Podcast 29: Firing on the Line of Control, with Lt Gen Prakash Menon. https://ivmpodcasts.com/the-pragati-podcast-episode-list/2018/2/1/ep-29-firing-on-the-line-of-control 51: A Tale of Two Nukes: Iran. https://ivmpodcasts.com/the-pragati-podcast-episode-list/2018/7/19/ep-51-a-tale-of-two-nukes-iran-part-1 52: A Tale of Two Nukes: North Korea. https://ivmpodcasts.com/the-pragati-podcast-episode-list/2018/7/26/ep-52-a-tale-of-two-nukes-north-korea-part-2 If you have any questions or comments, write in to podcast@thinkpragati.com. To learn more about the campaign, visit abmeribaari.in. Follow The Pragati Podcast on Instagram: https://instagram.com/pragatipod Follow Pragati on Twitter: https://twitter.com/thinkpragati Follow Pragati on Facebook: https://facebook.com/thinkpragati Subscribe & listen to The Pragati Podcast on iTunes, Saavn , Spotify , Castbox , Google Podcasts , YouTube or any other podcast app. We are there everywhere. You can listen to this show and other awesome shows on the IVM Podcasts app on Android: https://ivm.today/android or iOS: https://ivm.today/ios, or any other podcast app. You can check out our website at http://www.ivmpodcasts.com/
Are new developments eroding the credibility of India's no first use policy? Is North Korea going to spark a crisis in the new year? In this episode, Aditya Ramanathan and Pranav R.S. talk to Vipin Narang, Associate Professor at MIT about India's counterforce temptations and the latest nuclear tensions in northeast Asia. Also check out: India's Counterforce Temptations You can listen to this show and other awesome shows on the IVM Podcasts app on Android: https://ivm.today/android or iOS: https://ivm.today/ios, or any other podcast app. You can check out our website at http://www.ivmpodcasts.com/
Vipin Narang of the M.I.T. Department of Political Science joins Trevor Thrall and guest host Eric Gomez to discuss nuclear trends and the nuclear balance in Asia.Vipin Narang bioVipin Narang, “Why North Korea Is Testing Missiles Again,” Foreign Affairs, May 16, 2019Vipin Narang, “India’s Counterforce Temptations,” International Security, Winter 2018/19Caroline Dorminey and Eric Gomez, “America’s Nuclear Crossroads: A Forward‐Looking Anthology,” June 2019 See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.
Vipin Narang joins Srinath Raghavan sits to discuss India's evolving nuclear strategy and the impact of nuclear weapons around the world.References:Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era: Regional Powers and International Conflict by Vipin NarangIndia's Counterforce Temptations: Strategic Dilemmas, Doctrine, and Capabilities by Christopher Clary and Vipin NarangStopping the Bomb: The Sources and Effectiveness of US Nonproliferation Policy by Nicholas L. MillerThe 2020 Commission Report on the North Korean Nuclear Attacks Against the United States by Jeffrey Lewis
Next week on the Interpreting India podcast, Srinath Raghavan sits down with Vipin Narang to discuss India's role in an evolving global nuclear landscape and the United States' approach toward North Korea and Iran.
Independent investigative journalism, broadcasting, trouble-making and muckraking with Brad Friedman of BradBlog.com
Independent investigative journalism, broadcasting, trouble-making and muckraking with Brad Friedman of BradBlog.com
Title: The North Korean Nuclear Crisis Speaker: Vipin Narang Host: Dan Lindley Recorded: April 16, 2019
Milan Vaishnav talks about the aftermath of the recent conflict between India and Pakistan and its ramifications for India's domestic politics and foreign policy with Alyssa Ayres (Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations) and Rezaul Hasan Laskar (Foreign Editor, Hindustan Times). Although major hostilities have paused, tensions between the two neighbors remain high. But as India's election approaches, the domestic spin game has begun. The three discuss the government’s approach, the opposition’s positioning, and how international diplomacy fared during the crisis. Then, Milan speaks with Vipin Narang, associate professor of political science at MIT and a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Narang is one of the few scholars to have thought deeply about when foreign policy actually matters for domestic politics in India. While the conventional wisdom holds that foreign policy is an elite issue that does not capture the imagination of the masses, Narang (and co-author Paul Staniland) argue that foreign policy can penetrate mass politics when the issue is salient and the lines of accountability are clear. Narang also explains why Modi and the BJP are likely to benefit from the recent crisis.
India has some nuclear naval news, with its defense minister claiming a successful "first deterrent patrol." What does this mean for Pakistan and nuclear dynamics in the Indian Ocean? Aaron sits down with friends of the pod Ankit Panda and Vipin Narang to talk about the India-Pakistan relationship, India's ballistic missile subs, and Pakistan's cruise missile subs. This episode started as a Brilliant Pebble and ballooned into a full-blown episode! Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!
This week we do our best impersonation of the Georgetown set recording from 1789 and lamenting the world gone to hell. We break down Pompeo's trip to North Korea, Theresa May's Brexit woes, and the NATO summit which has already been overrun by chaos Muppets. With so much White House mayhem, we focus on Trump's upcoming meeting with Putin, and Radha gets on her soapbox about MAVNI and suitability screenings. Need a pop-culture escape? We suggest Crazy Rich Asians and Sharp Objects. Dahlia Lithwick, "Chaos Theory," Slate Daniel Russel, "The Singapore Honeymoon Is Over," Foreign Policy Jane Vaynman and Vipin Narang, "There are signs North Korea is still working on its nuclear program. Here's why 'denuclearization' is so problematic." Washington Post Nick Wadhams, "Inside Pompeo's Fraught North Korea Trip," Bloomberg Alex Hunt and Brian Wheeler, "Brexit: All you need to know about the UK leaving the EU," BBC Silvia Amaro, "There's now a real chance the UK won't get a Brexit deal—here's what that means for markets," CNBC John Cassidy, "Boris Johnson's resignation can't disguise the harsh reality of Brexit," New Yorker Robert Hutton, "U.K. Labour Open to Brexit Referendum If May's Deal Fails," Bloomberg Mark Newton, Rachel Rizzo, Julianne Smith, and Jim Townsend, "More Than Burden Sharing," CNAS Kathleen Hicks, "Press Briefing: Allied and Partner Contributions to NATO: Redefining Security Investment," CSIS Heather Hurlburt, "Even the Best-Case Scenario for What Trump Does at the NATO Summit Is Pretty Grim," New York Magazine Victoria Newland, "In Two Summits, a Moment of Truth for Trump," New York Times Tara Copp, "Here's the bottom line on the future of MAVNI: Many foreign-born recruits may soon be out," Military Times Jeff Schogol and Adam Linehan, "No, President Trump Is Not Purging The Military Of Immigrants," Task & Purpose Beth J. Asch, Jennie W. Wegner, Troy D. Smith, "The Military Accessions Vital to the National Interest (MAVNI) Program," RAND Ben Mathis-Lilley, "The Pentagon Says It's Not Purging Immigrant Recruits, but Some Evidence Says Otherwise," Slate Alex Ward, "Why Trump may not be to blame for immigrants being booted from the military," Vox Alex Horton, "ICE is moving to deport a veteran after Mattis assured that would not happen," Washington Post Music by Future Teens Produced by Tre Hester
This week we do our best impersonation of the Georgetown set recording from 1789 and lamenting the world gone to hell. We break down Pompeo's trip to North Korea, Theresa May's Brexit woes, and the NATO summit which has already been overrun by chaos Muppets. With so much White House mayhem, we focus on Trump's upcoming meeting with Putin, and Radha gets on her soapbox about MAVNI and suitability screenings. Need a pop-culture escape? We suggest Crazy Rich Asians and Sharp Objects. Dahlia Lithwick, "Chaos Theory," Slate Daniel Russel, "The Singapore Honeymoon Is Over," Foreign Policy Jane Vaynman and Vipin Narang, "There are signs North Korea is still working on its nuclear program. Here's why 'denuclearization' is so problematic." Washington Post Nick Wadhams, "Inside Pompeo's Fraught North Korea Trip," Bloomberg Alex Hunt and Brian Wheeler, "Brexit: All you need to know about the UK leaving the EU," BBC Silvia Amaro, "There's now a real chance the UK won't get a Brexit deal—here's what that means for markets," CNBC John Cassidy, "Boris Johnson's resignation can't disguise the harsh reality of Brexit," New Yorker Robert Hutton, "U.K. Labour Open to Brexit Referendum If May's Deal Fails," Bloomberg Mark Newton, Rachel Rizzo, Julianne Smith, and Jim Townsend, "More Than Burden Sharing," CNAS Kathleen Hicks, "Press Briefing: Allied and Partner Contributions to NATO: Redefining Security Investment," CSIS Heather Hurlburt, "Even the Best-Case Scenario for What Trump Does at the NATO Summit Is Pretty Grim," New York Magazine Victoria Newland, "In Two Summits, a Moment of Truth for Trump," New York Times Tara Copp, "Here's the bottom line on the future of MAVNI: Many foreign-born recruits may soon be out," Military Times Jeff Schogol and Adam Linehan, "No, President Trump Is Not Purging The Military Of Immigrants," Task & Purpose Beth J. Asch, Jennie W. Wegner, Troy D. Smith, "The Military Accessions Vital to the National Interest (MAVNI) Program," RAND Ben Mathis-Lilley, "The Pentagon Says It's Not Purging Immigrant Recruits, but Some Evidence Says Otherwise," Slate Alex Ward, "Why Trump may not be to blame for immigrants being booted from the military," Vox Alex Horton, "ICE is moving to deport a veteran after Mattis assured that would not happen," Washington Post Music by Future Teens Produced by Tre Hester
This week the Bombshell crew does something different. After a crazy few days in the national security world, we break down the good, the bad, and the pop-culture remedies. From Spain to Iran, to Iraq and Lebanon, to Niger and back home to the Haspel hearings and aviation mishaps we ask ourselves: what are we doing here? Also, Arnie Hammer discovered Iran-Contra and we rank order our favorite Chrises. Revolutions Podcast Fundraiser "Spain's ETA Basque terrorists disband," Economist Richard Nephew and Ilan Goldenberg, "Here's What to Expect Now That Trump Has Withdrawn From the Iran Nuclear Deal," Foreign Policy Colin H. Kahl and Vipin Narang, "Trump thinks his North Korea strategy will work on Iran. He's wrong on both." Washington Post Armie Hammer Tweet, May 7, 2018 Alice Hunt Friend, "The Accompany They Keep: What Niger Tells Us About Accompany Missions, Combat, and Operations Other Than War," War on the Rocks Paul Szoldra, "Military Leaders Sent Them On A Hasty, Ill-Planned Mission—And Are Now Blaming Them," Task & Purpose Mieke Eoyang, "The CIA Needs an Independent Thinker—Not a Gina Haspel," Atlantic Sophie Gilbert, "Jack Melrose Is a Lacerating Tour de Force," Atlantic Michael Barbaro, "Listen to 'The Daily': Gina Haspel and the Shadow of Torture," New York Times Music by Future Teens Produced by Tre Hester
This week the Bombshell crew does something different. After a crazy few days in the national security world, we break down the good, the bad, and the pop-culture remedies. From Spain to Iran, to Iraq and Lebanon, to Niger and back home to the Haspel hearings and aviation mishaps we ask ourselves: what are we doing here? Also, Arnie Hammer discovered Iran-Contra and we rank order our favorite Chrises. Revolutions Podcast Fundraiser "Spain's ETA Basque terrorists disband," Economist Richard Nephew and Ilan Goldenberg, "Here's What to Expect Now That Trump Has Withdrawn From the Iran Nuclear Deal," Foreign Policy Colin H. Kahl and Vipin Narang, "Trump thinks his North Korea strategy will work on Iran. He's wrong on both." Washington Post Armie Hammer Tweet, May 7, 2018 Alice Hunt Friend, "The Accompany They Keep: What Niger Tells Us About Accompany Missions, Combat, and Operations Other Than War," War on the Rocks Paul Szoldra, "Military Leaders Sent Them On A Hasty, Ill-Planned Mission—And Are Now Blaming Them," Task & Purpose Mieke Eoyang, "The CIA Needs an Independent Thinker—Not a Gina Haspel," Atlantic Sophie Gilbert, "Jack Melrose Is a Lacerating Tour de Force," Atlantic Michael Barbaro, "Listen to 'The Daily': Gina Haspel and the Shadow of Torture," New York Times Music by Future Teens Produced by Tre Hester
This week, the ladies of Bombshell welcome Lindsey Ford, from the Asia Society Policy Institute, to chat about this spring's Appointment in Helsinki: the US-North Korea presidential summit. Then, they set an Iran Deal death watch and puzzle through what happens when Red Sparrow meets real life in the nerve-agent poisoning of a Russian double agent in the UK. White House mayhem continues to say "hold my beer" with the firing of Rex Tillerson and what it means for Trump administration Kremlinology. Finally, the pop culture world is looking up, with the return of Occupied, the digital release of Last Jedi, and much more. Karoun Demirjian, "Corker prediction: Trump will pull out of Iran nuclear deal in May," Washington Post Ankit Panda and Vipin Narang, "The Trump-Kim Summit and North Korean Denuclearization: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly," War on the Rocks Ellen Barry, "Britain Says It Has Proof Russia Stockpiled Lethal Nerve Agent," New York Times Andrew Jeong, "North Korea to Meet for Talks With U.S., South Korean Delegations in Helsinki," Wall Street Journal Heidi Blake, Tom Warren, Richard Holmes, Jason Leopold, Jane Bradley, Alex Campbell, "From Russia With Blood," BuzzFeed Derek Chollet and Julie Smith, "The Clock Is Already Ticking On Mike Pompeo," Foreign Policy Ilan Goldenberg, "A Requiem for Rex's Redesign," Foreign Policy Ilan Goldenberg and Elizabeth Rosenberg, "How to Save the Iran Nuclear Deal," Foreign Affairs Alex Ward, "Trump finally decided to get tough on Russia. But did he go far enough?" Vox Ellen Barry, "Britain Hints at Tougher Blow Against Russia: Stripping Tycoon's Assets," New York Times Asia Society Policy Institute event, "Drones, Bots, and Smart Weapons: Artificial Intelligence and Asian Security" Produced by Tre Hester Theme Music by Future Teens
This week, the ladies of Bombshell welcome Lindsey Ford, from the Asia Society Policy Institute, to chat about this spring's Appointment in Helsinki: the US-North Korea presidential summit. Then, they set an Iran Deal death watch and puzzle through what happens when Red Sparrow meets real life in the nerve-agent poisoning of a Russian double agent in the UK. White House mayhem continues to say "hold my beer" with the firing of Rex Tillerson and what it means for Trump administration Kremlinology. Finally, the pop culture world is looking up, with the return of Occupied, the digital release of Last Jedi, and much more. Karoun Demirjian, "Corker prediction: Trump will pull out of Iran nuclear deal in May," Washington Post Ankit Panda and Vipin Narang, "The Trump-Kim Summit and North Korean Denuclearization: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly," War on the Rocks Ellen Barry, "Britain Says It Has Proof Russia Stockpiled Lethal Nerve Agent," New York Times Andrew Jeong, "North Korea to Meet for Talks With U.S., South Korean Delegations in Helsinki," Wall Street Journal Heidi Blake, Tom Warren, Richard Holmes, Jason Leopold, Jane Bradley, Alex Campbell, "From Russia With Blood," BuzzFeed Derek Chollet and Julie Smith, "The Clock Is Already Ticking On Mike Pompeo," Foreign Policy Ilan Goldenberg, "A Requiem for Rex's Redesign," Foreign Policy Ilan Goldenberg and Elizabeth Rosenberg, "How to Save the Iran Nuclear Deal," Foreign Affairs Alex Ward, "Trump finally decided to get tough on Russia. But did he go far enough?" Vox Ellen Barry, "Britain Hints at Tougher Blow Against Russia: Stripping Tycoon's Assets," New York Times Asia Society Policy Institute event, "Drones, Bots, and Smart Weapons: Artificial Intelligence and Asian Security" Produced by Tre Hester Theme Music by Future Teens
Why are so many people at odds over low-yield nuclear weapons? Well, it turns out, this debate touches on a megaton of interesting questions, including how Russia sees its own nuclear arsenal, how it envisions nuclear strategy, how the Kremlin understands the deterrence, and how we might prevent a nuclear war. So if you care about any of those things, you might want to listen in on this fierce debate between Frank Miller - a long-suffering veteran of the Pentagon and nuclear strategy, Dr. Olga Oliker of CSIS and a longtime observer and scholar of Russian nuclear and military doctrine, and Vipin Narang - a professor at MIT and, most importantly, a War on the Rocks senior editor. Co-hosts Ryan Evans and Usha Sahay did their best to moderate this high-yield debate about low-yield nukes. Get ready for the fallout. Produced by Tre Hester
What does the Cold War and Power Transition Theory have to do with Tom Brady's dietary regimen and the Eagles defense? Perry World House Associate Director Michael Horowitz quarterbacks this episode, which features an all-star line-up of national security experts. In advance of this Sunday's Super Bowl, Horowitz and our guests discuss what the Super Bowl has to do with global affairs and foreign policy. They also share their thoughts on the Eagles vs. Patriots matchup. Will they fumble in their predictions, or will they soar towards the Punditry Hall of Fame? Listen to find out! Frank Gavin is the Giovanni Agnelli Distinguished Professor and the inaugural director of the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs at Johns Hopkins SAIS. Rita Konaev is a post-doctoral fellow at the Center for Strategic Studies in The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University (and formerly a post-doctoral fellow at Perry World House). Vipin Narang is associate professor of political science at MIT. Erin Simpson is the host of the Bombshell podcast. Music and Produced by Tre Hester
Erin, Radha, and Loren get the band back together and invite Laura Rosenberger to dish about the launch of the Alliance for Security Democracy (her new project aimed at countering Russian efforts to undermine democratic institutions), her love of the Steelers, and our open invitation to military listeners to help us land on a carrier. Then it's Groundhog Day in Keeping of Foreign Relations, with new antics and new histrionics around North Korea and Iran, and White House mayhem heads to New York for the U.N General Assembly. Finally, we look forward to the NDAA and the Red Sparrow movie. Episode Reading: "Decoupling is Back in Asia," Mira Rapp-Hooper, War on the Rocks "Why Kim Jong Un wouldn’t be irrational to use a nuclear bomb first," Vipin Narang, The Washington PostT "The ABCs of Deterring North Korea," Josh Rovner, War on the Rocks "The Iran Deal is Keeping the Middle East From Going Nuclear," Richard Nephew and Ilan Goldenberg, Foreign Policy "The Case Against the Iranian Nuclear Deal is One Big Lie," Stephen Walt, Foreign Policy "How Congress can Save the State Department," Dan Benaim, Foreign Policy "How Violence in Myanmar Radicalized a New Generation of Rohingya," Hannah Beech, The New York Times "Walking the Line Between Covering a Rohingya Refugee Story and Changing It," Hannah Beech, The New York Times Red Sparrow trailer "Outlander Season Preimere Recap," Nicole Cliffe, Vulture Produced by Tre Hester Music: Lovira, All Things Considered
Erin, Radha, and Loren get the band back together and invite Laura Rosenberger to dish about the launch of the Alliance for Security Democracy (her new project aimed at countering Russian efforts to undermine democratic institutions), her love of the Steelers, and our open invitation to military listeners to help us land on a carrier. Then it's Groundhog Day in Keeping of Foreign Relations, with new antics and new histrionics around North Korea and Iran, and White House mayhem heads to New York for the U.N General Assembly. Finally, we look forward to the NDAA and the Red Sparrow movie. Episode Reading: "Decoupling is Back in Asia," Mira Rapp-Hooper, War on the Rocks "Why Kim Jong Un wouldn’t be irrational to use a nuclear bomb first," Vipin Narang, The Washington PostT "The ABCs of Deterring North Korea," Josh Rovner, War on the Rocks "The Iran Deal is Keeping the Middle East From Going Nuclear," Richard Nephew and Ilan Goldenberg, Foreign Policy "The Case Against the Iranian Nuclear Deal is One Big Lie," Stephen Walt, Foreign Policy "How Congress can Save the State Department," Dan Benaim, Foreign Policy "How Violence in Myanmar Radicalized a New Generation of Rohingya," Hannah Beech, The New York Times "Walking the Line Between Covering a Rohingya Refugee Story and Changing It," Hannah Beech, The New York Times Red Sparrow trailer "Outlander Season Preimere Recap," Nicole Cliffe, Vulture Produced by Tre Hester Music: Lovira, All Things Considered
This week, Bombshell bids farewell to summer with our final distributed ops episode, closing out what has been a nice, quiet August (ha. ha). Afghanistan is, as usual, still a thing, but this time President Trump - or his teleprompter - actually gave us some thoughts on the matter. We lament waking up to a nuclear test in North Korea and the latest chapters in the Kenyan election and China-India border disputes, and drill down on how everything became about readiness and readiness became about everything: the Seventh Fleet, the Army, DACA, you name it. Finally, we give our take on John Kelly's efforts at discipline in the West Wing and the continuing parade of White House departures, as well as views on Back to School reading and "book dates" with your partner. Readings: "Why India did not Win the Standoff with China," M. Taylor Fravel, War on the Rocks "Welcome to the H-Bomb Club, North Korea," Ankit Panda and Vipin Narang, War on the Rocks "Xi says BRICS nations should stand up against protectionism," Lousie Watt, AP "Deadly Navy accidents in the Pacific raise questions over a force stretched too thin," Alex Horton and Thomas Gibbons-Neff, Washington Post "How the U.S. Navy's Fleet has been on a collision course for years," by David Larter, Defense News "U.S. Army Unprepared to Deal with Russia in Europe," Wesley Morgan, Politico "Analysis: Could Trump’s Transgender Military Ban Actually Become Policy?" Julie Moreau, NBC News Back to School Reading: A Life in Secrets: Vera Atkins and the Missing Agents of WWII, by Sarah Helm The Wise Men: Six Friends and the World They Made, by Walter Isaacson The Federalist Papers The Undoing Project, Michael Lewis A Gentleman in Moscow, Amor Towles In Light of What we Know, Zia Haider Rahman The Storm Before the Storm: The Beginning of the End of the Roman Republic, Mike Duncan The Most Famous Man in America: The Biography of Henry Ward Beecher, Debby Applegate The Alice Network, Kate Quinn
This week, Bombshell bids farewell to summer with our final distributed ops episode, closing out what has been a nice, quiet August (ha. ha). Afghanistan is, as usual, still a thing, but this time President Trump - or his teleprompter - actually gave us some thoughts on the matter. We lament waking up to a nuclear test in North Korea and the latest chapters in the Kenyan election and China-India border disputes, and drill down on how everything became about readiness and readiness became about everything: the Seventh Fleet, the Army, DACA, you name it. Finally, we give our take on John Kelly's efforts at discipline in the West Wing and the continuing parade of White House departures, as well as views on Back to School reading and "book dates" with your partner. Readings: "Why India did not Win the Standoff with China," M. Taylor Fravel, War on the Rocks "Welcome to the H-Bomb Club, North Korea," Ankit Panda and Vipin Narang, War on the Rocks "Xi says BRICS nations should stand up against protectionism," Lousie Watt, AP "Deadly Navy accidents in the Pacific raise questions over a force stretched too thin," Alex Horton and Thomas Gibbons-Neff, Washington Post "How the U.S. Navy's Fleet has been on a collision course for years," by David Larter, Defense News "U.S. Army Unprepared to Deal with Russia in Europe," Wesley Morgan, Politico "Analysis: Could Trump’s Transgender Military Ban Actually Become Policy?" Julie Moreau, NBC News Back to School Reading: A Life in Secrets: Vera Atkins and the Missing Agents of WWII, by Sarah Helm The Wise Men: Six Friends and the World They Made, by Walter Isaacson The Federalist Papers The Undoing Project, Michael Lewis A Gentleman in Moscow, Amor Towles In Light of What we Know, Zia Haider Rahman The Storm Before the Storm: The Beginning of the End of the Roman Republic, Mike Duncan The Most Famous Man in America: The Biography of Henry Ward Beecher, Debby Applegate The Alice Network, Kate Quinn
Special guest Amy Shafer joins us for the full show and highlights her fabulous research on the civil-military divide in America (and dishes on the Air Force Tops in Blue). Then we celebrate the liberation of Mosul, walk through the North Korean missile test, and wonder what exactly happened at the G20 meetings. Also on the table: Whither our Afghan strategy? And Erin gets giddy over space marines. Stick around for our “Game of Thrones” preview!* *By which we mean fan-girl shouts of joy and anticipation. Reading: Generations of War, Amy Shafer, CNAS “The ISIS Killers,” Mike Giglio, Buzzfeed “Mosul: What the Decade's Largest Battle Says About the Future of War,” Defense One Staff, Defense One “These Mindblowing Photos Reveal the Horror of the Islamic State War,” Liz Sly, The Washington Post “ISIS: A catastrophe for Sunnis,” Liz Sly, The Washington Post “Inside the Collapse of the Iraqi Army’s 2nd Division,” Yasir Abbas and Dan Trombly, War on the Rocks “Scared About North Korea? You Aren't Scared Enough,” Toby Harshaw, Bloomberg “North Korea’s ICBM: A New Missile and a New Era,” Ankit Panda and Vipin Narang, War on the Rocks “Looking For Details On Syria Ceasefire? Don’t Ask US Military,” Nancy Youssef, Buzzfeed “A proposed new military branch would send US troops to guard the galaxy,” CNN “My Top Ten Favorite Space Marines,” A Space Blog Odyssey
Special guest Amy Shafer joins us for the full show and highlights her fabulous research on the civil-military divide in America (and dishes on the Air Force Tops in Blue). Then we celebrate the liberation of Mosul, walk through the North Korean missile test, and wonder what exactly happened at the G20 meetings. Also on the table: Whither our Afghan strategy? And Erin gets giddy over space marines. Stick around for our “Game of Thrones” preview!* *By which we mean fan-girl shouts of joy and anticipation. Reading: Generations of War, Amy Shafer, CNAS “The ISIS Killers,” Mike Giglio, Buzzfeed “Mosul: What the Decade's Largest Battle Says About the Future of War,” Defense One Staff, Defense One “These Mindblowing Photos Reveal the Horror of the Islamic State War,” Liz Sly, The Washington Post “ISIS: A catastrophe for Sunnis,” Liz Sly, The Washington Post “Inside the Collapse of the Iraqi Army’s 2nd Division,” Yasir Abbas and Dan Trombly, War on the Rocks “Scared About North Korea? You Aren't Scared Enough,” Toby Harshaw, Bloomberg “North Korea’s ICBM: A New Missile and a New Era,” Ankit Panda and Vipin Narang, War on the Rocks “Looking For Details On Syria Ceasefire? Don’t Ask US Military,” Nancy Youssef, Buzzfeed “A proposed new military branch would send US troops to guard the galaxy,” CNN “My Top Ten Favorite Space Marines,” A Space Blog Odyssey
Conversations on Peaceful Change is a series of interviews initiated by the Global Research Network on Peaceful Change (GRENPEC). On this occasion, Dr. T.V. Paul, the Founding Director of GRENPEC and the James McGill Professor of International Relations at McGill University, interviews Dr. Scott Sagan, Caroline S.G. Munro Professor of Political Science at Stanford University, and Dr. Vipin Narang, Associate Professor of Political Science at Massachusetts Institute of Technology on the future of nuclear order.