Podcast appearances and mentions of milan vaishnav

Grand Tamasha is Carnegie's weekly podcast on Indian politics and policy co-produced with the Hindustan Times, a leading Indian media house. For six years (and counting), host Milan Vaishnav has interviewed authors, journalists, policymakers, and practitioners working on contemporary India to give listeners across the globe a glimpse into life in the world's most populous country.Each December, Milan looks back at the conversations we've hosted during the course of the year and selects a handful of books that stayed with him long after our recording wrapped. This year's selections span biography, history, and political economy—but they share a common thread: Each offers a bold reinterpretation of India at a moment of profound political and social churn.In keeping with this tradition, here—in no particular order—are Grand Tamasha's top books of 2025. A Sixth of Humanity: Independent India's Development OdysseyBy Devesh Kapur and Arvind Subramanian. Published by HarperCollins India.Believer's Dilemma: Vajpayee and the Hindu Right's Path to Power, 1977–2018By Abhishek Choudhary. Published by Pan Macmillan India.Shattered Lands: Five Partitions and the Making of Modern AsiaBy Sam Dalrymple. Published by HarperCollins India.Taken together, these books showcase the breadth of scholarship animating debates on India and South Asia today. They remind us that the region's past remains contested, its present deeply complex, and its future still uncertain. I hope you find these conversations as stimulating and inspiring as I did.One final note here: As you consider your year-end charitable giving, we hope you will choose to support Grand Tamasha. This season, you might have noticed that we've expanded into video, allowing listeners to watch full-length conversations on YouTube. Listener contributions sustain the costs of production, research, and distribution—especially as we expand our video offerings. The podcast receives no external funding beyond what our audience generously provides, and contributions from U.S.-based supporters are fully tax-deductible. We would be grateful for whatever support you can offer. Please visit https://donate.carnegieendowment.org/for more information on how you can give.On behalf of the entire team, we hope you have a wonderful holidays. Thanks for listening to the show—and see you in the new year.Episode notes:1. “The Forgotten Partitions That Remade South Asia (with Sam Dalrymple),” Grand Tamasha, October 29, 2025.2. “A Sixth of Humanity and the Dreams of a Nation (with Devesh Kapur and Arvind Subramanian),” Grand Tamasha, October 22, 2025.3. “Vajpayee and the Making of the Modern BJP (with Abhishek Choudhary),” Grand Tamasha, September 3, 2025.4.  Milan Vaishnav, “Grand Tamasha's Best Books of 2024,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, December 17, 2024.5.  Milan Vaishnav, “Grand Tamasha's Best Books of 2023,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, December 19, 2023.6.  Milan Vaishnav, “Grand Tamasha's Best Books of the Year,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, December 20, 2022.

This episode unpacks a pivotal year for India. Suhasini Haidar, diplomatic editor at The Hindu, explains how Delhi has adapted to unexpected tensions with the U.S., renewed pragmatism toward China, and its enduring reliance on Russia, while preparing for major trade negotiations with Washington and Brussels.Milan Vaishnav, Senior Fellow and Director, South Asia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, explores India's internal politics: Modi's continued dominance, the realities of coalition governance, and growing federal pushback from southern states. He shows how foreign policy has become central to Modi's domestic appeal, and why that can cut both ways.Geopolitical analyst, author, and former India correspondent for the Financial Times James Crabtree discusses why strong growth isn't creating enough jobs, India's modest gains in the “China+1” landscape, and the political constraints shaping trade policy. Plus: a look at how India's model of crony capitalism has evolved over the past decade.The conversations were recorded live, on stage, at the 2025 STATE OF ASIA conference, held November 6 in Zurich.Find more information on STATE OF ASIA 2025, including videos, on the Asia Society website.Stay up-to-date on all events and activities at Asia Society Switzerland: subscribe to the newsletter and support our work by becoming a member. -STATE OF ASIA is a podcast from Asia Society Switzerland.  Published: December 9, 2025Host/Editor: Remko Tanis, Managing Editor, Asia Society Switzerland

For much of India's democratic history, the woman voter has either been invisible or ignored – at times she has been spoken for, but very rarely listened to. A new book by the journalist Ruhi Tewari argues that this is no longer the case and seeks to understand why women have emerged from the political shadows.What Women Want: Understanding the Female Voter in Modern India draws on years of journalism and field reportage to trace the rise of the woman voter from 1947 to the present day.Ruhi is a journalist with nearly two decades of experience covering politics, policy and their intersection for leading Indian media organizations. She's developed a reputation for being a savvy political reporter who spends quality time in the field understanding what makes voters, politicians, and parties tick. Ruhi joins Milan on the show this to talk more about her new book. They discuss the “subtle but steady shift” in how women voters are perceived, the narrowing gender gap in voter turnout, and the distinctive voter behavior of India's women. Plus, Ruhi and Milan discuss the proliferation of “pro-women” welfare schemes and Prime Minister Narendra Modi's unique ability to connect with the woman voter.Watch this episode on YouTube here.Episode notes:1. Milan Vaishnav, ed. How Indian Voters Decide (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2025).2. Anirvan Chowdhury, “How the BJP Wins Over Women,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, April 26, 2024.3. Rithika Kumar, “What Lies Behind India's Rising Female Voter Turnout,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, April 5, 2024.4.Milan Vaishnav, “Indian Women Are Voting More Than Ever. Will They Change Indian Society?” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, November 8, 2018.5. Milan Vaishnav and Jamie Hintson, “Will Women Decide India's 2019 Elections?” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, November 12, 2018.6. “Taking On India's Patriarchal Political Order (with Soledad Artiz Prillaman),” Grand Tamasha, October 22, 2024.

Justice Dhananjaya Yeshwant Chandrachud was the fiftieth chief justice of India. An alumnus of Harvard Law School, he served as additional solicitor general of India. He was appointed as a judge of the Bombay High Court in 2000 and became the chief justice of the Allahabad High Court in 2013. In 2016, he was elevated to the Supreme Court of India, where he served as chief justice from November 2022 to November 2024.Justice Chandrachud is the author of a new compilation of speeches titled, Why the Constitution Matters. In it, the author reflects on his quarter-century of experience as a judge, illustrating how the Constitution impacts everyday life and why it remains a cornerstone of democracy.Justice Chandrachud joins Milan this week to about his new book and the state of the Court in India today. The two discuss the place of the Court in India's current political environment, the relationship between the judicial and executive branches, the weaknesses in the rule of law supply chain, and the role of the Court in “cleansing politics.” Plus, the two discuss the Court's verdict in the controversial electoral bonds case, the judicial branch's need for administrative reforms, and public trust in the Supreme Court.Episode notes:1. “A Blueprint for India's State Capacity Revolution (with Karthik Muralidharan),” Grand Tamasha, May 23, 2024.2. “The Indian Supreme Court in the Modi Era (with Gautam Bhatia),” Grand Tamasha, December 13, 2023.3. “Demystifying the Indian Supreme Court (with Aparna Chandra),” Grand Tamasha, November 15, 2023.4. Pratik Datta and Suyash Rai, “How to Start Resolving the Indian Judiciary's Long-Running Case Backlog,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, September 9, 2021.5. Devesh Kapur and Milan Vaishnav, “Strengthening Rule of Law,” in Bibek Debroy, Ashley J. Tellis, and Reece Trevor, eds. Getting India Back on Track: An Action Agenda for Reform (New Delhi: Random House India, 2014): 247-263

For a quarter century, Washington policymakers made a strategic bet on India premised on the belief that shared values, shared interests, and a shared strategic convergence in Asia would bind these two countries together as ‘natural allies' in the twenty-first century. All of this optimistic talk came crashing down to Earth a few months ago with the Trump administration's decision to slap 25 percent tariffs on Indian exports. This was exacerbated by a second decision to add an additional 25 percent tariff on India for its import of Russia oil. Taken together, these policy measures plunged U.S.-India relations into their most significant crisis since the late 1990s and the era of U.S. sanctions on India in the wake of the latter's nuclear tests.How did we get here? Where are we now? And where might we be going? These are the questions Milan takes up on this week's show with guest Ashley J. Tellis. Tellis is the Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and is well-known to Grand Tamasha listeners as one of the sanest, wisest voices on South Asia and U.S.-India relations, more specifically. Milan and Ashley discuss the policy of U.S. “strategic altruism” toward India, the ongoing trade negotiations between the United States and India, and Modi's recent visit to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting in China. Plus, the two discuss the latest turn in U.S.-Pakistan relations and whether the thaw in China-India relations is sustainable. Episode notes:1. Robert D. Blackwill and Ashley J. Tellis, “The India Dividend: New Delhi Remains Washington's Best Hope in Asia,” Foreign Affairs 98, no. 5 (September/October 2019): 173-183.2. Ashley J. Tellis, “India's Great-Power Delusions: How New Delhi's Grand Strategy Thwarts Its Grand Ambitions,” Foreign Affairs 104, no. 4 (July/August 2025): 52-67.3. Lisa Curtis, Dhruva Jaishankar, Nirupama Rao, and Ashley J. Tellis, “What Kind of Great Power Will India Be? Debating New Delhi's Grand Strategy,” Foreign Affairs 104, no. 5 (September/October 2025): 186-195.4. Ashley J. Tellis, “America's Bad Bet on India: New Delhi Won't Side With Washington Against Beijing,” Foreign Affairs, May 1, 2023.5. Milan Vaishnav, “How India Can Placate America,” Foreign Affairs, July 16, 2025.6. “Trade Wars: Trump Targets India (with Sadanand Dhume and Tanvi Madan),” Grand Tamasha, August 12, 2025.7. “What Kind of Great Power Will India Become? (with Ashley J. Tellis),” Grand Tamasha, July 2, 2025.

Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump issued an executive order slapping India with a 25 percent special tariff due to its purchases of Russian oil. This surprise measure raised the total tariff on Indian exports to the United States to 50 percent—among the highest rates imposed by the United States on any country in the world.But India is not just “any country.” Over the last quarter-century, it has emerged as one of America's most valuable strategic partners. Trump's tariff move has plunged the bilateral relationship into crisis, raising difficult questions about the future of both U.S. and Indian foreign policy.Grand Tamasha emerged from its summer hiatus for an emergency episode to make sense of these developments and their global ramifications. For this special episode, Milan is joined by Grand Tamasha regulars, Sadanand Dhume of the American Enterprise Institute and the Wall Street Journal and Tanvi Madan of the Brookings Institution.The trio discuss the drivers behind Trump's decision, India's response to the crisis, and the future of India's policy of “multi-alignment.” Plus, the two discuss the U.S. government's 180-degree turn on Pakistan and the prospects for an amicable resolution of the U.S.-India trade spat by summer's end.Episode notes:1. Praveen Swami, “Asim Munir's India nuke threat from US ballroom—‘will take half the world down,'” ThePrint, August 10, 2025.2. Sadanand Dhume, “India Is Losing Its Best and Brightest,” Wall Street Journal, July 30, 2025.3. “Tanvi Madan on the geopolitical shifts revealed by the India-Pakistan crisis,” The Economist, May 12, 2025.4. Ashley J. Tellis, “India's Great-Power Delusions,” Foreign Affairs (July/August 2025).5. Nirupama Rao, Dhruva Jaishankar, Lisa Curtis, and Ashley J. Tellis, “What Kind of Great Power Will India Be?” Foreign Affairs (September/October 2025).6. Milan Vaishnav, “How India Can Placate America,” Foreign Affairs, July 16, 2025.7. “What Kind of Great Power Will India Become? (with Ashley J. Tellis),” Grand Tamasha, July 2, 2025.

Abhay shares a compelling discussion with Milan Vaishnav, director of the South Asia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. They chatted about the intriguing shifts in political allegiances among the Indian Americans, the concept of "Modi Democrats," the broader implications of US- India relations, and the optimism he has for continuing to study the global Indian diaspora. (0:00 - 2:41) Introduction(2:41) Part 1 - questions to ask today as an Indian American, affirming political movements(16:40) Part 2 - reform and faith in institutions, personal journey to pursue scholarship, praise and continued blind spots for the Modi government(36:22) Part 3 - India as a global power, academic roundtables to kitchen tables, optimism (50:07) ConclusionCatch Milan on the Grand Tamasha podcast

Indian Genius: The Meteoric Rise of Indians in America is a new book by the author and journalist Meenakshi Ahamed. While many immigrant groups have found success in the United States, few have excelled as far and as fast as Indian Americans, reaching heights in a single generation that many thought would take the better part of a century to achieve. Ahamed's new book offers fascinating portraits of several Indian Americans in three distinct sectors—technology, medicine, and public policy. The book tries to understand what exactly accounts for Indian Americans' ability to break into mainstream American culture and their meteoric rise within its ranks.Listeners may remember our 2021 conversation with Meena on her previous book, A Matter of Trust: India–US Relations from Truman to Trump.To talk about her new book, Meena joins Milan on the show this week. They talk about the “godfather” of the Indian tech community in Silicon Valley, the balance between creativity and execution, and the role of caste. Plus, the two discuss the real (and perceived) influence of Indian Americans in Washington.Episode notes:1. Sanjoy Chakravorty, Devesh Kapur, and Nirvikar Singh, The Other One Percent: Indians in America (New York: Oxford University Press, 2016).2. “Understanding India's Diaspora,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.3. Sumitra Badrinathan, Devesh Kapur, and Milan Vaishnav, “Indian Americans at the Ballot Box: Results From the 2024 Indian American Attitudes Survey,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, October 28, 2024.4. “Meenakshi Ahamed on U.S.-India Relations from Truman to Trump,” Grand Tamasha, February 17, 2021.

We go to St. Peter's Square as Roman Catholic cardinals gather in the Sistine Chapel to select the next pope. David Gibson of Fordham University is there, along with NPR's Daniel Burke and Claire Giangravè of Religion News Service. And, India launched what it called retaliatory missiles at Pakistan early Wednesday morning. Pakistan is considering it an act of war. Milan Vaishnav of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace explains what's at stake for the two countries. Then, President Trump reportedly plans to shut down Energy Star, a program that has helped consumers find energy-efficient appliances since 1992. Grist's Tik Root tells us what the move could mean.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

One of the most talked about policy experiments in India in recent memory is the reform of government schools in the city-state of the National Capital Territory of Delhi. Under the leadership of the Aam Aadmi Party, the Delhi government has implemented an innovative program to equip students with foundational literacy and numeracy. But while these reforms are much discussed, they have been surprisingly under-studied. A new book by the scholar Yamini Aiyar tries to remedy this gap.Yamini's new book, Lessons in State Capacity from Delhi's Schools, draws on three years of ethnographic research where she and a team of colleagues were embedded in a cluster of schools across the national capital.Yamini is currently Visiting Senior Fellow at the Saxena Center for Contemporary South Asia and the Watson Institute at Brown University. Many of our listeners will know her from her work with the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi, where she served as President from 2017 to 2024.To kick off season thirteen of Grand Tamasha, Yamini joins Milan on the show this week. They discuss Yamini's decade-long adventure studying India's public schools, the core elements of the Delhi education model, and the mysterious ways in which the India bureaucracy operates. Plus, they discuss whether the Delhi experiment can travel beyond the national capital.Episode notes:1. “How Bureaucracy Can Work for the Poor (with Akshay Mangla),” Grand Tamasha, March 29, 2023.2. Yamini Aiyar and Shrayana Bhattacharya, “The Post Office Paradox: A Case Study of the Block Level Education Bureaucracy,” Economic & Political Weekly 51, no. 11 (2016).3. Lant Pritchett, “Is India a Flailing State?: Detours on the Four Lane Highway to Modernization,” HKS Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP09-013, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2009.4. Devesh Kapur, Pratap Bhanu Mehta, and Milan Vaishnav, Rethinking Public Institutions in India (New Delhi: Oxford University Press, 2017).

Grand Tamasha is Carnegie's weekly podcast on Indian politics and policy co-produced with the Hindustan Times, a leading Indian media house. For five years (and counting), Milan has interviewed authors, journalists, policymakers, and practitioners working on contemporary India to give listeners across the globe a glimpse into life in the world's most populous country.For the past two years, in anticipation of the show's holiday hiatus, we've published an annual list of our favorite books featured on the podcast over the previous twelve months.In keeping with this tradition, here—in no particular order—are Grand Tamasha's top books of 2024.Savarkar and the Making of HindutvaBy Janaki Bakhle. Published by Princeton University Press.Accelerating India's Development: A State-Led Roadmap for Effective GovernanceBy Karthik Muralidharan. Published by Penguin Viking India.The Identity Project: The Unmaking of a Democracy (published in the United States and the UK as The New India: The Unmaking of the World's Largest Democracy)By Rahul Bhatia. Published by Context (South Asia); Little, Brown (UK); and PublicAffairs (United States).In this special bonus episode, Milan talks about why he loved each of these books and includes short clips from his conversations with Janaki, Karthik, and Rahul.This is the final episode of our twelfth season. Thanks to our listeners to being such loyal followers of the show. We're excited to kick off our thirteenth season in mid-January after taking a short holiday break.Episode notes:1. Milan Vaishnav, “Grand Tamasha's Best Books of 2023,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, December 19, 2023.2. Milan Vaishnav, “Grand Tamasha's Best Books of the Year,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, December 20, 2022.3. “Identifying the New India (with Rahul Bhatia),” Grand Tamasha, September 25, 2024.4. “A Blueprint for India's State Capacity Revolution (with Karthik Muralidharan),” Grand Tamasha, May 22, 2024.5. “Savarkar, In His Own Words (with Janaki Bakhle),” Grand Tamasha, March 27, 2024.

The never-ending U.S. election has finally ended and Republican nominee Donald Trump has clinched a decisive victory. Trump is on track to win 312 electoral college votes and, for the first time, a majority of the popular vote.Kamala Harris, a surprise entrant in the race, lost a closely contested election, marking the second time in three elections that a female Democratic presidential nominee failed to topple Trump.The election has implications for Indian Americans, for India, and for U.S.-India relations.To discuss these topics and more, Milan is joined on the show this week by Grand Tamasha news roundup regulars, Sadanand Dhume of the Wall Street Journal and the American Enterprise Institute and Tanvi Madan of the Brookings Institution.The trio discuss the election results, the voting patterns of Indian Americans, what a Trump 2.0 might look like, and the implications of the elections for U.S.-India relationsEpisode notes:1. Tanvi Madan, “India will need to adapt to a new White House,” Indian Express, November 4, 2024.2. Sadanand Dhume, “Indian-Americans and the ‘Racial Depolarization,'” Wall Street Journal, November 6, 2024.3. Sumitra Badrinathan, Devesh Kapur, and Milan Vaishnav, “Indian Americans at the Ballot Box: Results From the 2024 Indian American Attitudes Survey,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, October 28, 2024.4. VIDEO: “Deciphering the Indian American Vote,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, October 31, 2024.5. Milan Vaishnav, “With Trump, it's back to the future for the US,” Hindustan Times, November 6, 2024.6. Sumitra Badrinathan, Devesh Kapur, and Milan Vaishnav, “How Will Indian Americans Vote? Results From the 2020 Indian American Attitudes Survey,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, October 14, 2020.7. AAPI Data tweet on exit poll data on Asian American voters, November 8, 2024.8. Tanvi Madan, “Has India made friends with China after the Modi-Xi agreement?” Brookings Institution, October 29, 2024.

As American voters go to the polls, all indications point to a statistical dead-heat between vice president and Democratic Party nominee Kamala Harris and former Republican president Donald Trump. The outcome will likely turn on tens of thousands of voters in a handful of key swing states. According to leading pollsters and polling aggregators, the race in these states is too close to call.In this hotly contested race, one demographic whose political preferences are much discussed, though less studied, is Indian Americans. A new study, the 2024 Indian American Attitudes Survey (IAAS), tries to fill this gap. The IAAS is a nationally representative online survey conducted by the Carnegie Endowment in conjunction with data and analytics firm YouGov. The report is authored by Sumitra Badrinathan of American University, Devesh Kapur of Johns Hopkins-SAIS, and Grand Tamasha host Milan Vaishnav.This week on the show, Milan speaks with Sumitra and Devesh about the main findings of their new report and what they portend for the election as well as future political trends in the United States.Episode notes:1. Sumitra Badrinathan, Devesh Kapur, and Milan Vaishnav, “Indian Americans at the Ballot Box: Results From the 2024 Indian American Attitudes Survey,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, October 28, 2024.2. VIDEO: “Deciphering the Indian American Vote,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, October 31, 2024.3. Sumitra Badrinathan, Devesh Kapur, and Milan Vaishnav, “How Will Indian Americans Vote? Results From the 2020 Indian American Attitudes Survey,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, October 14, 2020.4. Christopher H. Achen and Larry M. Bartels, Democracy for Realists: Why Elections Do Not Produce Responsive Government (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2016).5. Sara Sadhwani, “Asian American Mobilization: The Effect of Candidates and Districts on Asian American Voting Behavior,” Political Behavior 44 (2022):105–131.6. Devesh Kapur, Nirvikar Singh, and Sanjoy Chakravorty, The Other One Percent: Indians in America (New York: Oxford University Press, 2016).7. “Sumitra Badrinathan and Devesh Kapur Decode the 2020 Indian American Vote,” Grand Tamasha, October 14, 2020.

The United States is fast approaching the end of a lengthy presidential campaign in which the issue of immigration has taken center stage.Former President Donald Trump has repeatedly attacked President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris for failing to protect America's borders, with Trump's misleading claims that immigrants in Ohio are eating people's pets emerging as one of the defining moments of the race so far. Harris, on the other hand, has gone on the offensive, blaming Trump for sabotaging a bipartisan Senate bill that would have beefed up border protection.Amidst this back-and-forth, there's been relatively little attention paid to the changing composition of who exactly is trying to enter the United States without prior authorization. Since 2020, India has emerged as the country of origin for the largest number of migrants attempting to enter the U.S. outside of the Western Hemisphere.A new analysis by the Niskanen Center, “Indian migrants at the U.S. border: What the data reveals,” digs into what we know—and what we don't—about this surge from India. The authors of this new analysis, Gil Guerra and Sneha Puri, join Milan on the show this week to talk about their new research.Gil is an Immigration Policy Analyst at the Niskanen Center, where he focuses on immigration and foreign policy, migrant integration, and demographic trends at the U.S.-Mexico border. And Sneha is an Immigration Policy Fellow at the Niskanen Center, focusing on a wide range of immigration policy issues such as legal migration pathways, employment-based visas, and irregular migration.The three discuss the data on irregular migration, the surge in Indian “encounters” at the border, and the reasons behind the spike. Plus, the trio discuss the similarities and differences between Chinese and Indian migration, the recent controversies around Khalistani separatists in the diaspora, and the policy options facing the next U.S. president.Episode notes:1. Gil Guerra and Sneha Puri, “Indian migrants at the U.S. border: What the data reveals,” Niskanen Center, September 16, 2024.2. Gil Guerra, “Four countries that will shape migration in 2024 – and beyond,” Niskanen Center, April 1, 2024.3. Sergio Martinez-Beltran, “Indian migrants drive surge in northern U.S. border crossings,” NPR, September 10, 2024.4. Sanjoy Chakravorty, Devesh Kapur, and Nirvikar Singh, The Other One Percent: Indians in America (New York: Oxford University Press, 2016).5. Devesh Kapur and Milan Vaishnav, “Industrial Policy Needs an Immigration Policy,” Foreign Affairs, August 22, 2024.6. Terry Milewski, Blood for Blood: Fifty Years of the Global Khalistan Project (New York: Harper Collins, 2021).7. Aparna Pande, From Chanakya to Modi: Evolution of India's Foreign Policy (New Delhi: Harper Collins India, 2017).8. “Dr. S. Jaishankar on the Future of U.S.-India Relations,” Grand Tamasha, October 2, 2024.9. “The India-Canada Conundrum (with Sanjay Ruparelia),” Grand Tamasha, November 8, 2023.

एक वोट, एक मूल्य ये प्रजातंत्र का मूल सिद्धांत है। इसी बात को ध्यान में रखते हुए, बदलती जनसंख्या के साथ लोकसभा की सीटों का बंटवारा भी बदलने की व्यवस्था हमारे संविधान में की गयी थी। हर दशकीय जनगणना के बाद जनसंख्या के अनुपात में सीटों का बंटवारा होना था। लेकिन, इमरजेंसी के दौरान इस व्यवस्था को पच्चीस सालों के लिए स्थगित कर दिया गया।  २००१ में इस बंटवारे को २०२६ तक टाल दिया गया। अब २०२६ नज़दीक आ रहा है। इसके साथ ही जिन राज्यों में जनसँख्या घटी है, उन राज्यों में लोकसभा के सीटें कम हो जाने का डर एक राजकीय मुद्दा बनकर उभर रहा है। इस ज्वलंत मुद्दे को कैसे समझें? क्या हम किसी समाधान पर पहुँच सकते हैं? चलिए, इसी पर आज की पुलियाबाज़ी करते हैं।  One vote, one value is the basic principle of democracy. Hence, Article 81 of the Indian Constitution mandated a regular redistribution of Lok Sabha seats with changing population. After every decennial census, seats were to be reallocated amongst states in proportion to the population, so that the weight of every vote remains more or less the same across the country. However, during the Emergency, this exercise was postponed for twenty-five years. In 2001, it was further postponed till 2026. Now, as 2026 is approaching, delimitation has become a political issue especially in the southern states which stand to lose seats owing to their reduced population. What can be the potential solutions to this? How can we reallocate seats so that we respect the ‘One Vote, One Value' principle, while improving overall governance? We discuss:* One person, one vote* Historical background* Concentration of political power* The extent of malapportionment * Alternatives for new apportionment* Can actual voters be a criteria for seat apportionment?* Possible solution* Strengthening the Upper House * Vertical Devolution Please Note: Puliyabaazi is also available on Youtube in Video format. Please check out Puliyabaazi Hindi Podcast Youtube channel if you have not done so. Readings:India's Emerging Crisis of Representation by Milan Vaishnav and Jamie Hintson The States in Parliament by Lalit Panda and Ritwika Sharma, Vidhi Centre for Legal PolicyTSATU: Shruti Rajagopalan Dives Into DelimitationRelated Puliyabaazi:संसद को सुदृढ़ कैसे करें? Strengthening India's Parliament Ft. M. R. Madhavanसंसद के अंदर. Understanding the Indian Parliament.If you have any questions for the guest or feedback for us, please comment here or write to us at puliyabaazi@gmail.com. If you like our work, please subscribe and share this Puliyabaazi with your friends, family and colleagues.substack:Website: https://puliyabaazi.inHosts: @saurabhchandra @pranaykotas @thescribblebeeTwitter: @puliyabaazi Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/puliyabaazi/Subscribe & listen to the podcast on iTunes, Google Podcasts, Castbox, AudioBoom, YouTube, Spotify or any other podcast app. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.puliyabaazi.in

It has been more than three months since the conclusion of India's massive 2024 general elections. And it is no exaggeration to say that the results of the election caught many, if not most, election observers by surprise.To many, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appeared invincible in national elections especially given the widespread popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. And yet, the party suffered a significant setback, emerging as the single largest party but well short of a parliamentary majority.So, what actually happened in these elections? How can we understand the BJP's surprising showing? Has the Modi magic dissipated? And is Rahul Gandhi the new standard bearer of change?To discuss these and many other questions, Milan is joined on the show this week by Sanjay Kumar. Sanjay is Professor at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies in New Delhi and co-director of Lokniti, India's premier public opinion research organization. Since 1996, Lokniti has carried out a National Election Study after every general election, creating a unique repository of knowledge on the political and social attitudes of the Indian citizen.On the show, Milan and Sanjay discuss the key findings from this year's National Election Study. They talk about the resonance of the INDIA alliance's campaign, divergent outcomes in the Hindi belt, Modi's declining popularity, and the emerging realignment in southern politics. Plus, the two discuss the reasons for India's exit poll debacle.Episode notes:1. Suhas Palshikar, Sandeep Shastri, and Sanjay Kumar, “CSDS-Lokniti 2024 pre-poll survey: There is no clear and close challenger to the BJP this time. ‘Ifs and buts' apply,” Hindu, April 13, 2024.2. Sandeep Shastri, Sanjay Kumar, and Suhas Palshikar, “CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey: A return to an era of genuine coalitions,” Hindu, June 6, 2024.3. Lokniti Team, “Post-poll survey: Methodology,” Hindu, June 6, 2024.4. Sandeep Shastri, “CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey: Modi factor seems to have stagnated over a decade,” Hindu, June 6, 2024.5. Sanjay Kumar and Fuhaar Bandhu, “CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey: BJP maintains advantage among young voters,” June 7, 2024.6. Lokniti Team, “CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey: Clearing misconceptions about the post-poll survey,” Hindu, June 9, 2024.7. “Decoding the 2024 Indian General Elections (with Sunetra Choudhury and Rahul Verma),” Grand Tamasha, June 6, 2024.8. “Why India's Modi Underperformed (with Ravi Agrawal, Yamini Aiyar, and Milan Vaishnav),” FP Live, June 7, 2024.9. “India's 2024 Election—and its Aftermath (with Sadanand Dhume and Tanvi Madan),” Grand Tamasha, June 19, 2024.

From pundits to polls, there was a wide expectation this year that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi would not only win a rare third consecutive term, but also secure an even bigger parliamentary majority than he had before. As results emerged on Tuesday, it was clear that India's voters had other ideas. Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party won the most seats—more than the entire opposition alliance combined—but it will need the help of coalition allies to form a government.  How will Modi govern in a third term, and what will it mean for the world? FP's Ravi Agrawal is joined by experts Milan Vaishnav and Yamini Aiyar to discuss.  Suggested reading: Ravi Agrawal: Why Modi Underperformed Devesh Kapur: Modi's Power Has Peaked  Sushant Singh:Modi's Campaign Rhetoric Is Dangerous Ravi Agrawal: The New Idea of India Mukul Kesavan: 4 Books to Understand Modern India Josh Felman and Josh Felman: Is India Really the Next China? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We've finally come to the end of the 46-day Indian general election. And we have a surprising result which many experts did not see coming. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of Prime Minister Narendra Modi failed to secure a single-party majority in the Lok Sabha in what is being interpreted as a major setback.The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) did, however, win a majority and is set to form a new government on June 8th under Modi's leadership. The opposition Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) grouping, in turn, performed much better than expected, winning 233 seats—a massive increase from 2019.On today's podcast, we bring you a conversation that Milan recorded with two of India's leading political experts: Sunetra Choudhury, national political editor of the Hindustan Times, and Rahul Verma, Fellow at the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi.The trio spend an hour digging into the nitty gritty of these election results. They discuss the BJP's stumbles, the INDIA alliance's keys to success, and what the election tells us about national issues like the economy and Hindu nationalism. Plus, the three discuss what the we can expect from the new NDA government.If you're interested in the video of the conversation, you can find it on YouTube here: https://www.youtube.com/live/JfhZEAclHv4Episode notes:1. Milan Vaishnav, “Looking back before looking ahead in 2024,” Hindustan Times, June 5, 2024.2. Sunetra Choudhury, “As Cong nears 100 seats, Kharge makes overtures to NDA parties, works the phone,” Hindustan Times, June 4, 2024.3. Rahul Verma, “Elections that reminded netas, people are the boss,” Times of India, June 5, 2024.4. “India Elects 2024,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party lost its majority in India's parliament. The stunning blow is forcing Modi to rely on allies to form a government for the first time since he stormed to power a decade ago. On today's episode of The Big Take Asia, host K. Oanh Ha digs into India's 2024 general election results with Bloomberg reporter Sudhi Ranjan Sen on the ground in New Delhi. And Milan Vaishnav, senior fellow and director of the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, delves into what the results mean for both India and the world. Read more: India Election ResultsTo hear more from Milan Vaishnav listen to his podcast, Grand Tamasha.To hear more about our coverage of Narendra Modi, listen to our series, The Rise of Modi. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party lost its majority in India's parliament. The stunning blow is forcing Modi to rely on allies to form a government for the first time since he stormed to power a decade ago. On today's episode of The Big Take Asia, host K. Oanh Ha digs into India's 2024 general election results with Bloomberg reporter Sudhi Ranjan Sen on the ground in New Delhi. And Milan Vaishnav, senior fellow and director of the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, delves into what the results mean for both India and the world. Read more: India Election ResultsTo hear more from Milan Vaishnav listen to his podcast, Grand Tamasha.To hear more about our coverage of Narendra Modi, listen to our series, The Rise of Modi. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Lisa Curtis, senior fellow and director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at Center for a New American Security, and Milan Vaishnav, senior fellow and director of the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, discuss the geopolitical implications of India's general elections and the influence of religion on politics in India. Alyssa Ayres, dean of the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University and adjunct senior fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, moderates the discussion.

In just a few days, India's eighteenth general elections will get underway with voting in the first phase kicking off on April 19. Between April 19 and June 1, India will have seven separate polling days culminating in a final counting of votes on June 4.Every single pre-election survey to date shows the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) alliance of Prime Minister Narendra Modi winning a comfortable majority of seats in the Lok Sabha. If these predictions come to fruition, it would be the first time that a party has won three consecutive elections under the same leader since Congress during the Nehru period.To preview these elections—and what they mean for India's future—Milan is joined on the show this week by Sukumar Ranganathan, editor-in-chief of the Hindustan Times. Few people in India have observed and analyzed politics, economics, and social change as comprehensively as Sukumar.Milan and Sukumar discuss the issues animating voters this election, the state of the economy, and the significant expansion of the BJP coalition. Plus, the two discuss the opposition's struggles, the BJP's big push in the southern states, and what we know about the agenda for Modi 3.0.Episode notes:1. Milan Vaishnav, “On electoral bonds, a short-lived celebration,” Hindustan Times, February 17, 2024.2. “Decoding the Indian Economy (with Pranjul Bhandari)” Grand Tamasha, April 3, 2024.3. Sukumar Ranganathan, “Five Things with @HT_Ed,” Hindustan Times (newsletter).4. Hindustan Times, General Elections Retrospective (accessed via the HT app).

On this episode of This Is Democracy, Jeremi and Zachary are joined by Milan Vaishnav to discuss the scale and future impact of India’s 2024 general election. Zachary sets the scene with his poem entitled, “A Democratic Quest” Milan Vaishnav is a senior fellow and director of the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment […]

A few weeks ago, the Indian government formally notified the rules implementing the controversial 2019 Citizenship Amendment Act, or CAA. The law provides persecuted religious minorities hailing from Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Pakistan an expedited pathway to Indian citizenship, provided they belong to the Buddhist, Christian, Hindu, Jain, Parsi, or Sikh communities. Notably, the law does not provide such a pathway to those who belong to the Muslim faith.The notification of the CAA rules—on the eve of India's 2024 general election—has kicked off a fresh debate over the law, its implementing provisions, and the resulting implications for the future of secularism in India.To discuss all of this and more, Milan is joined on the show this week by legal scholar M. Mohsin Alam Bhat. Mohsin is a Lecturer in Law at Queen Mary University of London, where he specializes in constitutional law and human rights. Mohsin has written extensively about law and citizenship in India.Milan and Mohsin discuss the origins of the CAA, its constitutionality, and the fine print of the CAA rules. Plus, the two discuss the situation in Assam, that state's National Register of Citizens (NRC), and the prospects of an all-India NRC exercise.Episode notes:1. “What's Happening to India's Rohingya Refugees? (with Priyali Sur and Daniel Sullivan),” Grand Tamasha, May 24, 2023.2. Mohsin Alam Bhat and Aashish Yadav, “CAA will not help persecuted Hindus, Sikhs from neighbouring countries,” Indian Express, March 19, 2024.3. “The Citizenship (Amendment) Bill, 2019,” PRS Legislative Research.4. Madhav Khosla and Milan Vaishnav, “The Three Faces of the Indian State,” Journal of Democracy 32, no. 1 (2021): 111-125.5. Mohsin Alam Bhat, “The Constitutional Case Against the Citizenship Amendment Bill,” Economic and Political Weekly 54, no.3 (2019): 12-14.6. Mohsin Alam Bhat, “‘The Irregular' and the Unmaking of Minority Citizenship: The Rules of Law in Majoritarian India,” Queen Mary Law Research Paper No. 395/2022.7. Niraja Gopal Jayal, “Faith-based Citizenship,” The India Forum, October 31, 2019. 

Two weeks ago, a five-judge bench of India's Supreme Court ruled that electoral bonds—a controversial instrument of political giving introduced by the Narendra Modi government—violated the Constitution and would immediately cease operating.Under the court's ruling, the State Bank of India will immediately stop issuing bonds; the Election Commission of India must disclose details of all transactions since April 2019; and any bonds which have not yet been encashed are to be refunded.On this week's podcast, Grand Tamasha host Milan Vaishnav—who has written extensively about campaign finance in India—takes a turn in the hot seat. In a special collaboration with DAKSH, a Bangalore-based non-profit working on judicial reforms and access to justice, Leah Verghese (host of the DAKSH Podcast) interviews Milan about the Court's ruling and what it means for the future of political funding in India.The two discuss the history of campaign finance in India, the controversy around electoral bonds, and the controversy around foreign funding of elections. Plus, Milan and Leah discuss why ordinary Indians should care about the dynamics of election funding.Episode notes:1. Milan Vaishnav, “On electoral bonds, a short-lived celebration,” Hindustan Times, February 17, 2024.2. Crime and Politics with Milan Vaishnav,” The DAKSH Podcast, September 2022.3. Devesh Kapur and Milan Vaishnav, eds., Costs of Democracy: Political Finance in India (New Delhi: Oxford University Press, 2018).4. Milan Vaishnav, When Crime Pays: Money and Muscle in Indian Politics (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2017).

This episode is a collaboration with Grand Tamasha, an excellent podcast on the latest developments in Indian politics, economics, foreign policy, society, and culture. Milan Vaishnav, the host of Grand Tamasha, joins us for this bonus episode. On 15 February 2024, the Supreme Court, in a unanimous landmark verdict, struck down the controversial electoral bonds scheme. Given that general elections are just around the corner, Milan discussed how this judgment will impact the financing of political parties in the largest democracy in the world. If you like our podcast, do consider supporting us with a donation at the link below: https://www.dakshindia.org/donate/ The DAKSH Podcast https://www.dakshindia.org/the-daksh-podcast/ Ajoy Sinha Karpuram, Why did the Supreme Court strike down the Electoral Bonds Scheme? https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-law/supreme-court-electoral-bonds-verdict-9163729/ Arun Jaitley, Why Electoral Bonds are Necessary https://pib.gov.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175452 Association for Democratic Reforms & Anr.  Writ Petition (C) No. 880 of 2017 https://main.sci.gov.in/supremecourt/2017/27935/27935_2017_1_1501_50573_Judgement_15-Feb-2024.pdf Part 1: Behind the BJP's rise and rise, bonds, trusts and raids on corporates https://www.newslaundry.com/2024/02/20/behind-the-bjps-rise-and-rise-bonds-trusts-and-raids-on-corporates DAKSH Podcast, Crime and Politics (Milan Vaishnav) https:www.dakshindia.org/crime-and-politics/ Milan Vaishnav, On electoral bonds, a short-lived celebration https://www.hindustantimes.com/opinion/on-electoral-bonds-a-short-lived-celebration-101708170676086.html Press Release: Introduction of the Scheme of Electoral Bond https://www.dea.gov.in/sites/default/files/Electoral%20Bonds_Press%20RELEASE_2-1-2018.pdf

Ro Khanna, “The New Industrial Age,” Foreign Affairs, January/February 2023.“The Next Chapter in U.S.-India Defense Ties (with Lindsey Ford),” Grand Tamasha, September 5, 2023.Sumitra Badrinathan, Devesh Kapur, Jonathan Kay, and Milan Vaishnav, “Social Realities of Indian Americans: Results From the 2020 Indian American Attitudes Survey,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, June 9, 2021.Arvin Alaigh, “A Reckoning for the Modi Democrats,” Dissent, December 23, 2020.

India had the world's largest economy until the 17th century but suffered almost 500 years of decline afterward. However, India is currently the world's most populous nation with one of the largest economies, growing faster this year than any other major country. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has brought stability to India, making the country economically and geopolitically resurgent. Critics worry that Modi's democracy is too autocratic and inward-looking, rooted in Hindu nationalism. India's future is uncertain as centrifugal forces of religion, inequality, and nationalism could overwhelm the current growth. Will India continue to evolve and become a global power? Milan Vaishnav is a senior fellow and director of the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington and an accomplished India watcher. He shared some answers in this episode of the New Thinking for a New World podcast. This podcast was first published on May 18, 2023

Từ giã Hoa Kỳ, thủ tướng Ấn Độ ra về với hàng loạt hợp đồng quan trọng trong các lĩnh vực từ công nghệ cao đến quốc phòng. « Công lao » của Trung Quốc và Nga trong đó khá lớn. Hơn cả tầm mức quan trọng về kinh tế, những thỏa thuận Washington và New Delhi đạt được phác họa ra « một lộ trình đầy tham của hợp tác song phương về những lĩnh vực chiến lược : công nghệ cao, viễn thông, trí tuệ nhân tạo và quốc phòng ». Kết thúc ba ngày làm việc tại Mỹ, thủ tướng Modi ra về với 5 chương trình hợp tác quốc phòng với Mỹ, với 7 thỏa thuận đầu tư vào Ấn Độ trong các lĩnh vực công nghệ cao và công nghệ không gian..., với 8 chương trình hợp tác phát triển năng lượng sạch. Đấy là chưa kể đến những văn bản đôi bên đã thông qua nhằm nâng cao hợp tác trong các lĩnh vực văn hóa, giáo dục, mở rộng thêm các văn phòng đại diện ngoại giao tại hai nước, về những sáng kiến chung cho khu vực Ấn Độ-Thái Bình Dương...  Mục tiêu Trung QuốcTrong lĩnh vực quốc phòng chẳng hạn, New Delhi trang bị drone MQ-9BSeaGuardian do General Atomics chế tạo, trị giá hợp đồng hơn 3 tỷ đô la. Đáng chú ý hơn nữa là hợp đồng cho phép General Electric sản xuất động cơ máy bay trinh sát F-414 trên lãnh thổ Ấn Độ. Vế quan trọng ở đây liên quan đến khâu chuyển giao công nghệ. Trả lời RFI tiếng Việt, nhà nghiên cứu Olivier Guillard thuộc trung tâm nghiên cứu về châu Á CERIAS đại học Québec-Montréal, giám đốc đặc trách về thông tin cơ quan tư vấn CRISIS24 -Garda World trước hết phân tích về tầm nhìn của New Delhi : « Thủ tướng Ấn Độ công du Hoa Kỳ với mục tiêu kép là kinh tế và chiến lược mà Trung Quốc là trọng tâm của vế chiến lược đó. Hai nền dân chủ lớn nhất thế giới này có quan điểm và cách tiếp cận khá gần gũi với nhau về Bắc Kinh. Cả hai hiện cùng đang có mối bang giao không mấy hữu hảo với Trung Quốc. Ấn Độ -Trung Quốc có tranh chấp lãnh thổ. Washington và New Delhi đọ sức với Bắc Kinh về mặt chính trị, chiến lược. Trên tất cả các chủ đề này không ai có ý định nhượng bộ. Chính thái độ đó lại càng thắt chặt thêm quan hệ Mỹ-Ấn. Washington trải thảm đỏ đón thủ tướng Narendra Modi, nhiều hợp đồng đã được ký kết. Nhà Trắng nói đến "năng lượng mới" trong bang giao song phương ». Đối với Washington, Milan Vaishnav, giám đốc chương trình Nam Á trung tâm nghiên cứu Carnegie ghi nhận : Làm thế nào đối mặt với « thách thức Trung Quốc », đó là câu hỏi đã thúc đẩy chính sách kinh tế và đối ngoại của Hoa Kỳ trong thời gian gần đây. Sản xuất chíp điện tử và linh kiện bán dẫn trả lời phần nào câu hỏi này và chính trên điểm này « Ấn Độ hiện là một đối tác quan trọng ». Chẳng vậy mà Micron Technology Inc. trong lĩnh vực công nghệ bán dẫn thông báo đầu tư hơn 800 triệu đô la vào một dự án để mở nhà máy tại bang Gujarat (miền tây Ấn Độ). Washington và New Delhi hợp tác phát triển công nghệ viễn thông thế hệ 6 -chuẩn bị thay thế hệ thống 5G hiện nay. India's Sterlite Technologies Limited đầu tư 100 triệu đô la mở nhà máy sản xuất cáp quang gần thành phố Colombia -bang South Carolina. Cùng lúc thỏa thuận MSP bảo đảm nguồn cung ứng cho đôi bên về các loại khoáng sản « thiết yếu » (critical minerals) tránh để chuỗi cung ứng bị « đổ gẫy »… Thị trường 20 tỷ đô la một năm Những hợp đồng nói trên thể hiện hai điều : một là Mỹ đánh cược vào Ấn Độ để giảm lệ thuộc vào chuỗi cung ứng mà ở đó Trung Quốc đã trở thành một mắt xích không thể thiếu (như với kim loại hiếm) đồng thời khai thác nhân công với chuyên môn cao tại Ấn Độ để phát triển những công nghệ mới, chận đường các công ty Trung Quốc. Đương nhiên tính toán đó đấp ứng tham vọng của thủ tướng Narendra Modi để đưa kinh tế Ấn Độ lên một « tầm cao mới ». Giám đốc cơ quan tư vấn CRISIS24 -Garda World, Olivier Guillard gắn liền vế thương mại với những mục tiêu về quốc phòng của cả đôi bên :« Vế thương mại là mục tiêu quá rõ ràng trong chuyến đi lần này của ông Modi. Trước tiên, đôi bên đã đạt được nhiều tiến bộ trên những hồ sơ nhậy cảm, từ sản xuất chíp điện tử đến chế tạo linh kiện bán dẫn. Quan trọng hơn cả là nhiều hãng lớn của Mỹ cam kết chuyển giao công nghệ cho New Delhi, sản xuất tại Ấn Độ và đầu từ hàng trăm tỷ đô la vào Ấn Độ. Đây là những hợp đồng mang tính nhậy cảm bởi không chỉ liên quan đến vế kinh tế mà còn bao hàm luôn cả vế quân sự và an ninh. Thí dụ như trong thỏa thuận sản xuất động cơ cho phản lực F-414 của Mỹ. Đối với thủ tướng Modi, đây là một điểm then chốt, bởi đáp ứng được tham vọng "Made in India" mà ông đã đề ra từ gần cả một chục năm nay. Ấn Độ muốn được chuyển giao công nghệ để có thể tự sản xuất, nâng cấp cơ cấu kinh tế của nước này, đồng thời bớt phụ thuộc vào nguồn cung cấp trang thiết bị quân sự chính là Nga ». Yếu tố NgaNhà chính trị học Christophe Jaffrelot giám đốc trung tâm nghiên cứu CERI - Sciences Po, trường Khoa Học Chính Trị Paris (báo La Croix 25/06/2023) đánh giá : chính khâu chuyển giao công nghệ mới là « chìa khóa » của các hợp đồng. Công nghiệp quốc phòng của Ấn Độ vẫn còn nhiều yếu kém, Ấn Độ vẫn chưa thể tự sản xuất xe tăng, chiến đầu cơ hay tàu ngầm.Hàng năm New Delhi chi ra 20 tỷ đô la để nhập khẩu vũ khí mà Nga là một nguồn cung cấp chính. Trước ngày thủ tướng Modi đến Hoa Kỳ, bộ trưởng Quốc Phòng Mỹ, tướng Lloyd Austin rồi cố vấn an ninh quốc gia của Nhà Trắng Jake Sullivan lần lượt đến New Delhi. Hôm 15/06/2023 ông Sullivan đã cùng với đồng cấp Ấn Độ là Ajit Doval công bố lộ trình đầy tham vọng cho hợp tác song phương trên một số lĩnh vực rất nhậy như vừa nêu. Nếu như đối với New Delhi viễn cảnh tự chủ về công nghiệp quốc phòng là điều quan trọng nhất thì trong mắt Washington, Ấn Độ là đối tác quan trọng để « bảo vệ một trật tự thế giới với những giá trị tự do, dân chủ là cơ bản » mà trật tự đó đang bị cả Trung Quốc lẫn Nga thách thức như đánh giá của Milan Vaishnav, giám đốc chương trình Nam Á trung tâm nghiên cứu Carnegie. Nga là yếu tố thứ nhì trong các hợp đồng cả về quân sự đến công nghệ mà Ấn Độ và Mỹ vừa đúc kết. Olivier Guillard giải thích :  « Điều chắc chắn là về mặt phòng thủ và công nghiệp quốc phòng từ nhiều thập niên qua Ấn Độ rất lệ thuộc vào Nga, vào các tập đoàn cung cấp Nga. Khoảng 60 % các trang thiết bị quân sự trên bộ, trên biển và trên không của Ấn Độ xuất xứ từ Nga. Mức độ lệ thuộc lớn như vậy càng lúc càng đè nặng lên các chính quyền ở New Delhi. Do vậy khoảng từ một chục năm trở lại đây Ấn Độ tìm cách đa dạng hóa các nguồn cung cấp vũ khí và trang thiết bị quân sự. Trong chiến lược này, Pháp là một đối tác quan trọng. Có từ 20 đến 25 % trang thiết bị quân sự của Ấn Độ là do Pháp cung cấp. Đừng quên rằng Ấn Độ là một trong những nguồn nhập khẩu vũ khí lớn nhất trên thế giới. Do New Delhi đang tìm kiếm thêm các nguồn cung cấp khác để bớt phụ thuộc vào Nga, cho nên Mỹ đã tận dụng cơ hội này để mở rộng thị phần tại Ấn Độ. Lần này ông Modi sang Mỹ mua drone có trang bị vũ khí nhằm tăng cường khả năng phòng thủ và tấn công cho bộ binh và không quân. Kèm theo đó là vế chuyển giao công nghệ. Một lần nữa chúng ta thấy là New Delhi muốn độc lập hơn với các nhà sản xuất Nga. Đương nhiên Matxcơva không hài lòng lắm nhưng Nga không có sự lựa chọn nào khác ».   Tham vọng của New Delhi qua mặt Trung Quốc Từ khi Liên Xô sụp đổ năm 1991 Ấn Độ liên tục tìm cách đa dạng hóa các nguồn cung cấp vũ khí. Trong mục tiêu này, New Delhi đã nhắm tới Israel, Pháp và đương nhiên là Hoa Kỳ. Cho đến tận dưới thời tổng thống George W. Bush (2000-2008) một số rào cản (do liên hệ mật thiết với các nhà sản xuất trang thiết bị quân sự Liên Xô, rồi với Nga) trong hợp tác quốc phòng Mỹ-Ấn mới bắt dầu từng bước được dỡ bỏ. Do vậy ông Nicolas Blarel, giám đốc nghiên cứu đại học Leyde, Hà Lan cho rằng, hàng loạt các thỏa thuận về quốc phòng vừa được thông qua tại Washington tuần trước do bối cảnh địa chính trị hiện nay với Trung Quốc, với Nga dẫn tới, nhưng đồng thời đây cũng là kết quả của hơn 20 năm đàm phán. Giờ đây với các chương trình chuyển giao công nghệ, chuyên gia này không loại trừ khả năng trong tương lai không xa chiến đấu cơ HAL Tejas của Ấn Độ hoàn toàn có thể cạnh tranh được và thậm chí là còn vượt trội hơn cả máy bay trinh sát tương đương của Trung Quốc. Nhưng làm thế nào dung hòa công nghệ của Mỹ và trang thiết bị có sẵn từ thời Liên Xô hay của Nga ? Trước mắt giới phân tích chưa thể giải đáp.Vấn đề còn lại là liệu rằng nền công nghiệp quốc phòng của Ấn Độ có nắm bắt cơ hội hợp tác với Mỹ để làm chủ những công nghệ mới hay không. Chỉ biết rằng thủ tướng Narendra Modi đã được tiếp đón trọng vọng tại Hoa Kỳ và ông đang chuẩn bị lên đường đến Paris : Ấn Độ là khách mời danh dự của Pháp nhân dịp lễ Quốc Khánh 14/07/2023. Từ 2016 New Delhi là một trong những khách hàng sử dụng chiến đấu cơ Rafale, biểu tượng của nền công nghiệp hàng không quân sự Pháp.  

In this episode of Market Minutes, Shailaja Mohapatra puts the spotlight on markets nearing all-time high levels, primary market action and what low levels of VIX means for traders. Also, catch Milan Vaishnav of Gemstone Equity Research in Voice of the Day segment. Market Minutes is a morning podcast that puts the spotlight on hot stocks, keys data points and developing trends (with inputs from news agencies)

Later this summer, California could be first American state to ban discrimination on the basis of caste. California's move, and the moves by universities, cities, and towns across the country, to raise issues of caste discrimination has generated a massive controversy that is roiling the Indian American community in the United States.One reporter, the freelance journalist Sonia Paul, has been doggedly pursuing this story for years, even before it became a mainstream news issue. Sonia is an award-winning journalist, writer, producer and story editor based in Oakland, California, and she is the daughter of immigrants from India and the Philippines.Sonia joins Milan on the show this week to talk more about her reporting and the state of caste in America. Sonia and Milan discuss the difficulties of reporting on caste in America, the coded ways in which discrimination often takes place, and the debates in the Indian American community over moves to add caste as a protected category. Plus, the two discuss the fierce contest over California's draft legislation. Episode notes:1. Sonia Paul, “The hidden caste codes of Silicon Valley,” BBC, April 18, 2023.2. Sonia Paul, “Trapped in Silicon Valley's Hidden Caste System,” Wired, March 1, 2022.3. “California Could Become the First State to Ban Caste Discrimination,” KQED “The Bay” (podcast), June 5, 2023.4. Sumitra Badrinathan, Devesh Kapur, Jonathan Kay, and Milan Vaishnav, “Social Realities of Indian Americans: Results From the 2020 Indian American Attitudes Survey,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, June 9, 2021.5. Maari Zwick-Maitreyi, Thenmozhi Soundararajan, Natasha Dar, Ralph F. Bheel, and Prathap Balakrishnan, Caste in the United States: A Survey of Caste Among South Asian Americans (Equality Labs, 2018).6. Sonia Paul, “From Black Lives Matter, activists for India's discriminated Dalits learn tactics to press for dignity,” The World, November 12, 2015.7. Patrick Cox, “Which version of Indian history do American school students learn?,” The World, April 27, 2017. 

India is like a caged tiger -- and the cage is unseen by most and difficult to break through. Subhashish Bhadra joins Amit Varma in episode 333 of The Seen and the Unseen to describe the many ways in which the Indian state holds back the Indian people -- and also to introspect on his own journey. (FOR FULL LINKED SHOW NOTES, GO TO SEENUNSEEN.IN.) Also check out: 1. Subhashish Bhadra on LinkedIn, Instagram and Twitter. 2. Caged Tiger: How Too Much Government Is Holding Indians Back -- Subhashish Bhadra. 3. Freedom at Midnight -- Larry Collins and Dominique Lapierre. 4. The Universe of Chuck Gopal — Episode 258 of The Seen and the Unseen. 5. Wherever I Lay My Hat (That's My Home) -- Marvin Gaye. 6. From Cairo to Delhi With Max Rodenbeck — Episode 281 of The Seen and the Unseen. 7. The Rooted Cosmopolitanism of Sugata Srinivasaraju — Episode 277 of The Seen and the Unseen. 8. Amitava Kumar Finds the Breath of Life — Episode 265 of The Seen and the Unseen. 9. Yeh Honsla -- Song from Dor. 10. Gurwinder Bhogal Examines Human Nature -- Episode 331 of The Seen and the Unseen. 11. The Perils of Audience Capture — Gurwinder Bhogal. 12. Episodes of The Seen and the Unseen with Ajay Shah: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10. 13. The State of Our Farmers — Episode 86 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Gunvant Patil). 14. The Indian State Is the Greatest Enemy of the Indian Farmer -- Amit Varma. 15. Power and Prosperity — Mancur Olson. 16. A Tale Of Two Bandits: Naxals And The Indian State -- Amit Varma. 17. The First Assault on Our Constitution — Episode 194 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Tripurdaman Singh). 18. Sixteen Stormy Days — Tripurdaman Singh. 19. The Narrow Corridor: How Nations Struggle for Liberty -- Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson. 20. Paul Graham's essays. 21. Malevolent Republic — Kapil Komireddi. 22. Who Broke Our Republic? — Episode 163 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Kapil Komireddi). 23. A New Idea of India -- Harsh Madhusudan and Rajeev Mantri. 24. In Service of the Republic — Vijay Kelkar & Ajay Shah. 25. The Art and Science of Economic Policy — Ep 154 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vijay Kelkar & Ajay Shah). 26. The Transformative Constitution -- Gautam Bhatia. 27. The Great Repression — Chitranshul Sinha. 28. India's Sedition Law — Episode 146 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Chitranshul Sinha). 29. Georges Simenon on Amazon. 30. The Road to Serfdom — Friedrich Hayek. 31. Leviathan -- Thomas Hobbes. 32. India's Greatest Civil Servant — Episode 167 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Narayani Basu, on VP Menon). 33. Emergency Chronicles — Gyan Prakash. 34. Gyan Prakash on the Emergency — Episode 103 of The Seen and the Unseen. 35. Participatory Democracy — Episode 160 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ashwin Mahesh). 36. Minimum government, maximum governance: A manifesto for a limited state -- Reuben Abraham and Vivek Dehejia. 37. We Are Fighting Two Disasters: Covid-19 and the Indian State -- Amit Varma. 38. India's Far From Free Markets (2005) -- Amit Varma in the Wall Street Journal. 39. India's Lost Decade — Episode 116 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Puja Mehra). 40. The Lost Decade — Puja Mehra. 41. The Great Redistribution — Amit Varma. 42. The Delhi Smog — Ep 40 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vivek Kaul). 43. The Tragedy of Our Farm Bills — Episode 211 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ajay Shah). 44. The Emergency: A Personal History — Coomi Kapoor. 45. Coomi Kapoor Has the Inside Track — Episode 305 of The Seen and the Unseen. 46. Memories of a Father -- TV Eachara Varier. 47. Flying Spaghetti Monster. 48. Don't Insult Pasta (2007) — Amit Varma. 49. Republic of Rhetoric: Free Speech and the Constitution of India -- Abhinav Chandrachud. 50. South India Would Like to Have a Word — Episode 320 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Nilakantan RS). 51. 21 Lessons for the 21st Century -- Yuval Noah Harari. 52. Rethinking Public Institutions in India -- Edited by Devesh Kapur, Pratap Bhanu Mehta and Milan Vaishnav. 53. Black Mirror on Netflix. Check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing. And subscribe to The India Uncut Newsletter. It's free! Episode art: ‘Cage' by Simahina.

Leaders come and go, but institutions stay forever. This is the central takeaway of a new book by Subhashish Bhadra, Caged Tiger: How Too Much Government Is Holding Indians Back.Subhashish is an economist whose career has straddled both the policy and corporate worlds. He has worked at a leading global management consulting firm, a venture capital firm, and a tech start-up, working closely with CEOs, entrepreneurs, bureaucrats, politicians and academics throughout his career.His new book is a call to action that encourages Indians to move beyond their fixation with leaders and focus instead on building strong state institutions. While discussions of state capacity are typically the stuff of academic conference rooms and think tank seminars, Bhadra believes they should be at the core of everyday discussions Indians have on the future of their democracy.Subhashish joins Milan on the show this week to discuss his motivations for writing the book, the institutional flaws in Indian democracy, the need for a new “social contract” on welfare, and the appropriate balance between states and markets in India. Plus, Subhashish explains what ordinary citizens can do to change the status quo. Episode notes:Anirudh Burman, “Resisting the Leviathan: The Key Change in India's New Proposal to Protect Personal Data,” Carnegie India, November 28, 2022.Vijay Kelkar and Ajay Shah, In Service of the Republic: The Art and Science of Economic Policy (New Delhi: Penguin India, 2022).Devesh Kapur, Pratap Bhanu Mehta, and Milan Vaishnav, eds. Rethinking Public Institutions in India (New Delhi: Oxford University Press, 2017).

India had the world's largest economy until the 17th century but suffered almost 500 years of decline afterward. However, India is currently the world's most populous nation with one of the largest economies, growing faster this year than any other major country. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has brought stability to India, making the country economically and geopolitically resurgent. Critics worry that Modi's democracy is too autocratic and inward-looking, rooted in Hindu nationalism. India's future is uncertain as centrifugal forces of religion, inequality, and nationalism could overwhelm the current growth. Will India continue to evolve and become a global power? Milan Vaishnav is a senior fellow and director of the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington and an accomplished India watcher. He shared some answers in this episode of the New Thinking for a New World podcast.

India Is Broken: A People Betrayed, Independence to Today is a big new book on India by the economist Ashoka Mody. Mody is an economic historian at Princeton's School of Public and International Affairs and a longtime official at the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.His new book provides readers with an unvarnished look at India's twin economic and political failures over the past 75 years. Challenging the conventional wisdom, Mody argues that India's post-independence leaders—from Jawaharlal Nehru all the way to Narendra Modi—have failed to confront India's true economic problems, seeking easy solutions instead. As a popular frustration grew, India's democracy suffered, leading to an upsurge in nationalism, violence, and corruption.Mody joins Milan on the podcast this week to talk more about his book. The two discuss Mody's controversial thesis, the inadequacy of GDP as a metric of economic development, and the parallels between pre-Partition India and India of the president. Plus, the two talk about Mody's solutions for addressing India's twin economic and political challenges. Notes:Ashoka Mody, “India's Boom Is a Dangerous Myth,” Project Syndicate, March 29, 2023. Ashoka Mody, “India's Broken State,” Project Syndicate, February 20, 2023. Milan Vaishnav, When Crime Pays: Money and Muscle in Indian Politics (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2017).

Age of Vice is the blockbuster new novel by the author Deepti Kapoor. It's a love story, wrapped inside a tale of capitalism run amok, wrapped inside a violent story of gangland politics. In nearly 600 pages, it transports readers from the badlands of eastern Uttar Pradesh to the five-star hotels and fabulous bungalows of New Delhi. To call this book a sensation would be the understatement of the year. Readers have snapped up copies, book editors have issued glowing reviews, and a television series is already in the works. Deepti Kapoor grew up in north India and worked for several years as a journalist in New Delhi. She's the author of a previous novel, A Bad Character, published in 2015. To talk more about Age of Vice and the inspiration behind it, Deepti joins Milan on the podcast this week. They discuss Deepti's journey from Delhi reporter to novelist, the research she conducted for the book, and the cynicism embedded in Indian politics. Plus, the two discuss the book's adaptation for the screen and the planned trilogy of books that is in the works. Ron Charles, “Deepti Kapoor's thriller ‘Age of Vice' starts 2023 with a bang,” Washington Post, December 29, 2022.Milan Vaishnav, When Crime Pays: Money and Muscle in Indian Politics (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2017).Josy Joseph, A Feast of Vultures: The Hidden Business of Democracy in India (New Delhi: HarperCollins India, 2016). Deepti Kapoor, “Driving in Greater Noida,” Granta, February 23, 2015.

India Policy Watch #1: Why We Don't Care About GrowthInsights on burning policy issues in India— RSJEarlier this week, Pranay and I recorded an episode with Shruti Rajagopalan for her podcast Ideas of India. I have been following Shruti's columns and the podcast for a while now, and I will recommend you subscribe to both her podcast and her newsletter. She's always insightful, curious and uses first principles to probe issues. This means you cannot get away with the usual stock answers. One of the questions we discussed at length was why does the Indian electorate not prioritise growth while making their choices at polls. It is an interesting contention whose premise itself can be questioned. How can we conclude that they don't? And then, if we assume for a moment they don't, why do they not? I won't spoil your experience of listening to the episode by going into the details of what we discussed. But I will cover some ground in today's edition on why it seems that people in India don't care about economic growth. And as it often happens in life, this discussion happened in the same week when India published its GDP estimates for the quarter Oct-Dec, 2022. So what I will do today is cover the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), take a wider view of what's happening with the economy and round it off with that question that Shruti asked.Here's the headline news on growth: From the ET:“India's gross domestic product (GDP) for the October-December quarter moderated to 4.4 per cent from 6.3 per cent in the previous quarter, data shared by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation showed on Tuesday. The GDP has now moderated from 13.5 per cent in the first quarter of FY23 largely due to pandemic-related statistical distortions.Lower GDP growth can also be attributed to aggressive rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of India in order to tame the high inflation. In addition to these factors, the slowdown in exports and consumer demand has also contributed in bringing down the numbers. The dent in consumer demand can be linked with the bullish rate hikes by the central bank to bring down inflation in the past few months. Meanwhile, slowdown in external demand could be a consequence of the rate hikes by major central banks around the world.”Apart from this, the NSO made revisions to the GDP numbers for FY 22, FY 21, FY 20 and to the first two quarters of this FY. Heh! I'm reminded of that famous quip by a former RBI Governor, ‘In other countries the future is uncertain, but in India even the past is uncertain'. The growth numbers came in as a negative surprise. What's worse, manufacturing showed a contraction for the second quarter in a row. Not a great sign when the government has been pushing for companies to set up a base in India and eyeing that ‘China+1' pie. The WSJ had a summary of the key signs of worry in the Indian economy:“Weakness in private consumption stood out the most. India's private consumer spending, which comprises about 60% of India's gross domestic product, rose just 2.1% year over year, compared with an 8.8% increase in the September quarter. It was mainly hurt by higher interest rates and elevated inflation. Slower growth in rural spending after some pandemic-era subsidies were cut could have also played a role.A closer look at other numbers in the GDP data also paints a worrisome picture. Import growth fell more sharply than export growth, again signalling weak domestic demand. And while fixed investment growth was a relative bright spot, it still slowed for the second quarter in a row.Nomura economists Sonal Varma and Aurodeep Nandi think markets are still significantly underappreciating the risks to India's growth. They say the country's growth cycle has peaked, and a combination of weaker global growth and tight domestic and global financial conditions could spell further trouble for exports, investment and discretionary consumption.”So, what should one make of this data? There's clearly a moderation of growth. Some of it is expected because of the base effect of the pandemic years and the upward revision to growth done for the previous years. It is also true that global demand is weak, so exports will be sluggish for a while. On the other hand, manufacturing growth remaining weak despite all the PLI and ‘Make in India' efforts should worry policymakers. Domestic consumption is starting to feel the impact of rate hikes, and the liquidity situation remains tight. Of course, the data can be spun the other way too. The NSO has maintained its 7 per cent growth forecast for the full year, which implies a 5.1 per cent growth in Q4. Inflation is subsiding, and it is likely that after the potential April rate hike, we will have a pause unless global factors come into play. Also, an expected good monsoon and China opening up post its Zero Covid madness will mean domestic and global demand will be back. So, it is all a mixed bag if you just go by quarterly numbers.I thought it might make sense to look at the long-range data from NSO/CSO and other sources to reach better conclusions than merely reacting to quarter-on-quarter figures. Here's what I learnt:* The primary growth driver since 2015 (keeping the pandemic years aside) has been an increase in factor productivity. When compared to the previous decade, the contribution of capital to growth has come down. Simply put, while we have grown at a 6.5-7 per cent annual rate since 2015, which is similar to what we had between 2005-14, the composition of growth is different. We have become more productive, but we haven't added new capacity to our economy as fast as we did earlier. The good news is factor productivity growth is difficult to achieve, and we have done that. All that talk of digital infrastructure seems to be working. Now, can we reverse capital formation? That's the next point. * Will there be a long-delayed capex boom as has been promised by the government in the last two budgets? The debt to GDP has remained stagnant now for a decade. The total banking sector credit to GDP ratio has been range-bound between 50-55 per cent during this time. Why will it change now? First, the corporate debt to equity and debt to EBITDA are at their lowest right now in over 15 years. The demand for credit from corporates is linked more to the health of their balance sheet than their income statements. The Top 500 companies are sitting on the strongest balance sheets ever right now, and sometime soon, they will have to start believing in what they say at all these business conclaves about India's time being now. Second, there is significant deleveraging in the banking system, and the leverage (assets/equity ratio) among banks is at a multi decade low. Combine this with a decade long real estate slump which is showing signs of turning despite higher interest rates, the mix is right for the capex cycle to start. * Lastly, there are two real risks facing the economy when you go beyond the immediate numbers. The debt to GDP numbers remain elevated at 85-90 per cent range, and the government continues to crowd out others in the debt market. There is some consolidation, as was seen in this budget, but the government has to stay on course to reduce the fiscal deficit and bring the debt-to-GDP ratio back to the 70 per cent handle. The other risk is on the balance of payments (BoP) which will remain in deficit for the foreseeable future. Exports have slowed, and the tightening of the rate differential between India and the US will lower the risk appetite which will impact capital inflow. A longer duration BoP deficit puts India at risk in case of an ‘accident' in the global market.   Anyway, you might think Q3 data or a longer-term view of the economy at the moment should trigger a debate on the economy in the media. That people on the street would be interested in knowing how the government would tackle this, and it should be an important discussion point in mainstream media. But there's none of that anywhere. That leads me back to Shruti's question on why economic growth is not a critical subject of public discourse in India. Pranay and I had three hypotheses for this.First, it is not entirely true that growth isn't a political issue in India. There's been a steady rise in people's expectations of economic growth from the government. State elections are fought on an economic plank more often than not. Almost every party speaks of ‘vikas' without fail. Also, the fact that successive governments see the need to revise (or fudge) growth numbers suggest, in a perverse way, that they know people care about this stuff now.Second, it is true that people in India still don't correlate their immediate economic prospects with the policymaking of the government in power. The only economic indicator that bothers people and that they link back to the government is inflation. And that explains why governments tend to be sensitive to price rise data. Also, with the private sector becoming the primary source of new job creation, people tend to blame them for job creation or losses. The question of why the government doesn't facilitate policies that help the private sector invest and create more jobs isn't of immediate concern to people. Lastly, any discussion on economic growth in India devolves quite quickly to two notions that lots of Indians hold as true. One, we are gifted with the best resources and the best people, so we just have to announce to the world that our time has come, and they will flock to us. This has been exacerbated by a steady stream of global Indians doing well with leading global organisations. So, we think we have a birthright to be a vishwaguru. The WhatsApp forwards certainly don't help in tempering this skewed notion. The problem is this image then confronts the reality of our performance - low per capita income, poor human development parameters, shoddy infrastructure and economic underperformance. This leads our people to the second notion. That the only reason we aren't growing like we rightfully should is because there's some mysterious force stopping us. And this something is easily spun in elections as some other group, some group of ‘them' saboteurs derailing India versus the ‘us' who are trying our best. Almost every growth discussion in India goes down this predictable path - start with asking what will spur more growth, refuse to engage with real issues like factor reforms, inefficient and large footprint of the state, complex tax structure etc., and, soon, come down to who or what forces are stopping us from growing? From there, the discussion is easier, politically speaking. Find the ‘other'. And damn them. This has been the script for over half a century now. As we speak today, the other is either some leftist, global cabal out to sabotage India's inevitable rise or the minority community in India who don't care about growth or progress. There is a likelihood that as income and awareness levels go up, people will draw the link between economic performance and governance and demand better. But this natural progression is up against a concerted narrative and a pliant media that isn't interested in helping explain this link or asking the tough questions. So, we continue to have the spectacle of prime-time debates saturated with all sorts of non-issues on the day when GDP numbers are published. It is easier to blame someone for a problem than to solve it. Addendum— Pranay KotasthaneIt's telling that there are very few recent papers that investigate the link between economic growth and electoral outcomes. But the few that I could find suggest the link between economic growth and political dividends is improving. A 2015 paper by Milan Vaishnav and Reedy Swanson tested this relationship in the period 1980-2012 for major state elections. In the aggregate, there was no statistically significant relationship between growth and electoral performance. But, the picture was different when they looked at just the recent twelve-year section of the study period (2000-2012). Incumbents were rewarded for higher growth, and the relationship held true after controlling for other factors. Contrary to popular belief, they found that inflation didn't impact electoral outcomes, but economic growth did. Another recent paper from 2019 by Bang & Mishra contends that sectoral growth matters more than aggregate growth. Specifically, the agricultural growth rate can propel electoral performance, while services sector growth has no such effect. The paper didn't explain the methodology used, so we should interpret the results with caution. My own unsubstantiated assertion is that the period of fast growth was so short (2003-2008) that it doesn't register as a benchmark in voter decisions. Our reference points are far lower. Middling rates of economic growth without excess volatility are enough to convince us that we are going in the right direction. We might be subconsciously extrapolating this growth rate linearly, hence allowing other factors to outweigh our electoral decisions.Regardless, we need a lot more empirical studies to decode this puzzle. A Framework A Week: A Taxonomy of Policy Failures (and Policy Successes)Tools for thinking about public policy— Pranay KotasthanePolicies can fail due to different reasons. These reasons and diagnostic tools are scattered across several editions of this newsletter. In this edition, I will compile these tools so that we have a single meta-framework for analysing policy failures. The idea is that whenever you witness a policy failure, one of these menu items might help you diagnose it. A word of caution: this taxonomy is neither mutually exclusive (some failures might span multiple frameworks) nor collectively exhaustive (there definitely are other reasons I've not read yet). Nevertheless, it is a useful collection, I think. Framework 1: The Programmatic - Political AxesWe discussed this framework in edition #147. It assesses policy success on two parameters - programmatic efficiency & effectiveness, and political coalition building & communication. The 2x2 matrix below presents four stylised scenarios.The use of the “political work” axis highlights that judgments on policies are often subjective. They are “constructed” in our minds as much as they are outcomes of good craft work. That's why narratives are crucial in policy-making. Framework 2: A Fourfold MeasureAnother framework that we covered in edition #147 builds on the previous framework and devises four parameters of success/failure in order to eliminate getting swayed by narratives alone.Broadly speaking, Programmatic Assessment measures the Effectiveness and Efficiency of a policy. Process Assessment indicates Implementation Capability. Political Assessment measures narrative power.Framework 3: Unpacking Success and FailuresAllan McConnell's paper Policy Success, Policy Failure and Grey Areas In-Between, classifies policies along a spectrum in each of the first three dimensions from the previous framework. The spectrum has the following shades: outright success, resilient success, conflicted success, precarious success, and, finally, outright failure. For instance, here's how this spectrum would look along the Political dimension.This framework helps policy analysts identify contradictions between the different dimensions of policy failures. Some policies might be successful along one dimension but might fare poorly along another. McConnell identifies three typical contradictions:* Successful Process vs Unsuccessful Programmes. These are policies which follow well-established methods of deliberation, such as parliamentary debates, standing committee suggestions, and excellent law drafting. And yet, they might fail as a programme, i.e. they do not achieve the stated goals, and their costs far exceed the benefits. I put policies such as Items Reserved for Manufacture Exclusively by the Smallscale Sector under this category. * Successful Politics vs Unsuccessful Programmes. These are electorally popular policies that governments want to associate with long after their consequences have played out. Yet they fail to achieve the stated goals and impose far higher costs than intended benefits. Probably, the Bombay Rent Control Act and Corporate Social Responsibility Act fall into this category. * Successful Programmes vs Unsuccessful Politics. Until about a year ago, I would have classified the Civil Services Pension Reform of 2004 as an outright success along all dimensions. But with five states having gone back on it already, it's become a classic case of poor coalition-building. There's another common contradiction: Successful Programmes vs Temporal Failures. These are programmes that achieve short-term goals but lead to adverse unintended consequences in the long term. Minimum Support Prices policies for grains and the Bombay Prohibition Act fall under this category. Framework 4: Outlays - Output - OutcomesWe discussed this framework in edition #98. Inputs/Outlays refer to the resources provided to a scheme or project that the government runs. Outlays for a project is no guarantee for success. To measure success, policies or schemes need two other parameters: outputs and outcomes. Outputs refer to the direct and measurable product of program activities, often expressed in physical terms or units. Outcomes, on the other hand, are the long-term benefits that a project or intervention is designed to deliver.…This framework also yields a useful vocabulary for measuring success. We can assess policies in terms of its economy, efficiency, and effectiveness. Economy refers to inputs. It answers the question: are project inputs being purchased at the right price? Efficiency relates to outputs over inputs. It answers the question: what is the relationship between investment in inputs and the outputs that are produced? Effectiveness relates to outcomes over outputs. It answers the question: are outputs leading to the expected outcomes?This framework can help disambiguate implementation failures from “theory of change” failures. Often, implementation failures are caused due to insufficient outlay allocation or corruption, which impedes the conversion of outlays into commensurate outputs. In the case of “theory of change” failures, the assumed linkage between outcomes, outputs, and outlays is found to be incorrect. For example, the theory of change in education policies continues to be that more outlays on government schools and on teacher salaries will result in higher student enrollments, which would eventually lead to better learning outcomes. This linkage doesn't hold strongly, as ASER surveys have shown year after year. What we think of as implementation failures often turn out to be “theory of change” failures under the hood. Framework 5: Violating the Tinbergen RuleEditions #9 and #135 talk about this failure. The more the number of objectives that a policy or institution is supposed to achieve, the more likely it is to fail in achieving any of them. A classic case of failure is that of the traffic police in India — burdened with regulating traffic while its main function is enforcing adherence to traffic rules and regulations.Policies that seek to achieve many goals should raise the alarm in an analyst's mind.Framework 6: Incentive InterferenceThe mother of all policy failures is, of course, ignoring people's preferences and incentives. Bans, price caps, sticky subsidies, and high tax rates meddle with choices and preferences to such an extent that they are almost always counterproductive. HomeWorkReading and listening recommendations on public policy matters* [Article] It is easy to get swept away by the government's rhetoric on industrial policy. So it was a relief to see the Minister of State in MeitY strike a cautionary note about PLI schemes in a Mint report:“Think of PLI as the period during which we are transitioning from a less than fully competitive economy to a fully competitive manufacturing (economy). So the PLI will take care of that interim period. But the economy, the efficiency, the competitiveness, the skills, the logistics, costs, all of that will eventually kick in and make us competitive".As we keep saying, PLI is probably a necessity in today's geopolitical scenario, but it is hardly the solution to our economic woes. There was another article in the Financial Times on similar lines. * [Podcast] Over at Puliyabaazi, we spoke with senior journalist Seema Sirohi, who has closely tracked the India-US relationship for over three decades. Her book Friends with Benefits: The India-US Story is a must-read for anyone interested in this subject.* [Article] Check out S Dinakar's Business Standard piece to know why the Russian crude oil discount is not reflecting in your petrol pump bill. It's a classic case of government price-fixing, using a benchmark that saves government-owned refineries at the cost of consumers. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit publicpolicy.substack.com

The decline of India's parliament is a refrain that has often been repeated over the last seventy-five years of modern Indian democracy. A new book on India's Parliament addresses the decline thesis head-on and provides a warts-and-all assessment of India's legislative chamber.The book is called House of the People: Parliament and the Making of Indian Democracy and its author is the scholar Ronojoy Sen. Ronojoy, a senior research fellow at the Institute of South Asia Studies at the National University of Singapore, joins Milan on the podcast this week to discuss the evolution of India's parliament, the constitutional pre-history of legislative institutions in India, and the surprising lack of debate around universal suffrage. Plus, the two discuss the plague of parliamentary disruptions, the black box of conflicts of interest, and how the practice of Indian democracy transformed the institution of Parliament. Madhav Khosla and Milan Vaishnav, “The Three Faces of the Indian State,” Journal of Democracy 32, no. 1 (January 2021): 111-125.Ronojoy Sen, “Has the Indian Parliament stood the test of time?” Observer Research Foundation, August 15, 2022.

Last week, India's finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented her government's Fiscal Year 2023 budget. As in years past, the entire analyst class has been working overtime to scrutinize the minister's speech and the underlying budget spreadsheets to understand how this government plans to steer the Indian economy in the midst of global headwinds and an important general election in 2024.To discuss this year's budget and all that it means, Milan is joined on the show this week by Sukumar Ranganathan, editor-in-chief of the Hindustan Times. There are few journalists in India who follow budgets more closely or more insightfully.  Milan and Sukumar discuss the government's big infrastructure push, its electoral signaling, and future plans to raise revenue. Plus, the two discuss what we can say definitively about the Modi government's economic philosophy after nine years in office. Prashant Jha, “Budget passes BJP's political test ahead of 2024 elections,” Hindustan Times, February 2, 2023.Roshan Kishore, “Nightwatchman's Budget ahead of elections,” Hindustan Times, February 2, 2023.Abhishek Jha and Roshan Kishore, “The Indian economy: Past, present, future,” Hindustan Times, February 6, 2023. Archana Masih interview with Milan Vaishnav, “‘Adani affair overshadowed Budget's stability, prudence,'” Rediff News, February 6, 2023. 

One of the blessings (though it sometimes feels like a curse) of hosting Grand Tamasha, Carnegie's weekly podcast on Indian politics and policy, is that our host Milan Vaishnav ends up reading a ton of books and interviewing many authors. In what we hope will become an annual holiday tradition, Milan has made a list of his top three India reads of the year, based on some of the books we've highlighted on the show's recently wrapped eighth season. Our Grand Tamasha top three books of 2022 (drumroll, please): Desperately Seeking Shah Rukh: India's Lonely Young Women and the Search for Intimacy and IndependenceBy Shrayana Bhattacharya. Published by HarperCollins India.The Progressive Maharaja: Sir Madhava Rao's Hints on the Art and Science of GovernmentBy Rahul Sagar. Published by Hurst/HarperCollins India.The Newlyweds: Rearranging Marriage in Modern IndiaBy Mansi Choksi. Published by Atria/Icon/Penguin Viking. In this episode, Milan talks about why he loved each of these books and includes short clips from his conversations with Shrayana, Rahul, and Mansi. Think of this bonus episode as our little holiday present to you, our listeners. We'll see you in January.

Milan Vaishnav talks about the different aspect of the Indian diaspora in America. Milan is a Senior Fellow and Director of the South Asia Program and the host of the Grand Tamasha podcast at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Milan Vaishnav on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MilanVMilan on Substack: https://milanvaishnav.substack.com/“The Grand Tamasha” Podcast: https://grand-tamasha.simplecast.com/Music:Opening Theme Music by Brandon Duke"East Chill" by Boomer (licensed through Storyblocks).Produced by Karkata Media LLC in association with Perspicacity Media LLC.Copyright 2022, Karkata Media LLC.

In this episode, we spoke to Milan Vaishnav, the host of the popular podcasts ‘Grand Tamasha' about the criminalisation of politics. Most Indians are familiar with the phenomenon of politicians with criminal records and appear to have accepted their participation in the democratic process . In today's episode, Milan helped us unpack this uneasy balance by exploring why political parties give tickets to criminals, why people continue to vote for them and whether this status quo is likely to change.   If you like our podcast do consider supporting us with a donation at the link below: https://www.dakshindia.org/donate/   Reading list: Milan Vaishnav. When crime pays: Money and muscle in Indian politics. Yale University Press, 2017 James Crabtree, Lunch with the FT: Raghuram Rajan. Financial Times August 15 2014 https://www.ft.com/content/b049ce16-230e-11e4-a424-00144feabdc0#axzz3B60Xysad Association for Democratic Reform https://adrindia.org/   CREDITS: Host: Leah Verghese This is a Maed in India production. Producer: Nikkethana K Sound Mixing: Lakshman Parsuram Project Supervisor: Shaun Fanthome

Over the weekend, Australian voters elected a new government with the Australian Labor Party (ALP) and Anthony Albanese at the helm, ousting the ruling Liberal-National Coalition for the first time in a decade. Key to the ALP's landmark victory was the vote of the Indo-Australians, now the second largest immigrant group in Australia.A new Carnegie study co-authored by Devesh Kapur, Caroline Duckworth, and our very own Milan Vaishnav, sheds light on three elements of the Indo-Australian community's political behavior: the community's political preferences, leadership preferences, and policy priorities. This week, we put Milan in the hot seat to discuss his new study along with Caroline Duckworth, a James C. Gaither Junior Fellow in Carnegie's South Asia Program. We also wanted to turn the tables on Milan to ask him about his recent trip to Delhi—his first in the COVID-era. We talk about India's ongoing heat wave, the political mood in the country, and the fractures in Indian federalism. Caroline Duckworth, Devesh Kapur, and Milan Vaishnav, “Indo-Australian Voters and the 2022 General Election,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, May 18, 2022.Jonathan Kay, “A Heat Wave Has Pushed India's Dysfunctional Power System Into a Crisis,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, May 12, 2022.

When Ideas Matter: Democracy and Corruption in India is the title of a new book by the author Bilal Baloch. The book provides a framework for understanding how governments respond to credibility crises. We all know that governments act in their own interests—but what are those interests? How are they defined? And where do they come from? These are the questions that Bilal explores in his new book, through an examination of two seminal crises in Indian history: Indira Gandhi's response to the JP movement in the mid-1970s and the UPA government's reaction to the India Against Corruption movement a decade ago.Milan and Bilal discuss the role ideas play in shaping government policy during acute crises, the relevance of ideas in interpreting India's response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the factional divisions that exist within the Modi government. Plus, the two discuss Bilal's new career as a tech start-up entrepreneur. Christine Hall, “GlobalWonks relaunches as Enquire AI following $5.5M round,” TechCrunch, December 15, 2021.Bilal Baloch, “10 years later, assessing UPA's response to IAC,” Hindustan Times, December 11, 2021.Sandip Sukhtankar and Milan Vaishnav, “Corruption in India: Bridging ResearchEvidence and Policy Options,” India Policy Forum 11: 193-276.

Due to scheduling conflicts, there is no new episode of Grand Tamasha this week. A new episode of Grand Tamasha will air next Tuesday at 9:00 PM EST/Wednesday 7:30 AM IST.Most of our listeners do not need an introduction to the Bollywood superstar Shah Rukh Khan. You've watched his movies. You've sung the songs his films have popularized. You might even have had his poster on your wall growing up. A new book by the economist Shrayana Bhattacharya, Desperately Seeking Shah Rukh: India's Lonely Young Women and the Search for Intimacy and Independence, describes another role that Shah Rukh has fulfilled: he has been the north star for women across India as they search for intimacy, independence, and empowerment. Shrayana joins Milan on the podcast to discuss her new book—which is part economics tract, part reportage, part social commentary, and part feminist call to arms. Milan and Shrayana discuss how Shah Rukh has become a female (but not feminist) icon, the economics behind the lack of women's agency in India, and her own struggles with love and loneliness. Plus, the two discuss the mysteries of the Delhi social scene and the ways government policy can help challenge conservative, patriarchal social norms. K.X. Ronnie, “Interview, Shrayana Bhattacharya, author, Desperately Seeking Shah Rukh – “I'm a loud and proud feminist economist,” Hindustan Times, November 27, 2021.Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar, and Milan Vaishnav, “Introduction to e-Symposium: Urbanisation, gender, and social change in north India,” Ideas for India, December 6, 2021.Milan Vaishnav, “Women and work: How much does measurement matter?” Ideas for India, May 10, 2021.Ruth Pollard, “What a Bollywood Megastar Means for Women in India,” Bloomberg, December 9, 2021.

Data has no ideology, and journalists should always be guided by skepticism. Pramit Bhattacharya joins Amit Varma in episode 256 of The Seen and the Unseen to describe his journey learning the craft and the values of analytical journalism. Also check out: 1. Pramit Bhattacharya's writings in Mint. 2. The Importance of Data Journalism -- Episode 196 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Rukmini S). 3. Data Journalism and Indian Politics — Episode 136 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Roshan Kishore). 4. India's Greatest Civil Servant -- Episode 167 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Narayani Basu). 5. Taking Stock of Our Republic -- Episode 157 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ramachandra Guha). 6. Growth in a Time of Debt -- The Reinhart–Rogoff paper. 7. Fear the Boom and Bust: Keynes vs. Hayek - The Original Economics Rap Battle! 8. Fight of the Century: Keynes vs. Hayek - Economics Rap Battle Round Two. 9. Conversation and Society -- Episode 182 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Russ Roberts). 10. The Literature Machine -- Italo Calvino. 11. Milton Friedman and Paul Samuelson on Amazon. 12. Farmers, Technology and Freedom of Choice: A Tale of Two Satyagrahas -- Amit Varma. 13. Vidarbha's Tryst With BT Cotton -- Pramit Bhattacharya. 14. The State of Our Farmers — Ep 86 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Gunvant Patil, in Hindi). 15. India's Agriculture Crisis -- Episode 140 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Barun Mitra and Kumar Anand). 16. Thinking it Through -- The archives of Amit Varma's weekly column for Mint in 2007-8. 17. The Life and Times of Abhinandan Sekhri -- Episode 254 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Abhinandan Sekhri). 18. Elena Ferrante's interview about her writing process. 19. Niranjan Rajadhayaksha and Manas Chakravarty in Mint.20. Dadabhai Naoroji and the Fight for India -- Episode 187 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Dinyar Patel). 21. Pramit Bhattacharya in conversation with Milan Vaishnav in Grand Tamasha. 22. Demystifying GDP -- Episode 130 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Rajeswari Sengupta). 23. The Economic Consequences of the Peace -- John Maynard Keynes. 24. The Tamilian gentleman who took on the world -- Amit Varma 25. The Man of System — Adam Smith (excerpted from The Theory of Moral Sentiments). 26. Mohit Satyanand's newsletter. 27. GDP: A Brief but Affectionate History -- Diane Coyle. 28. Dunbar's number on Wikipedia. 29. Modeling Covid-19 -- Episode 224 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Gautam Menon). 30. Zeynep Tufekci, Eric Topol, Bhramar Mukherjee and Gautam Menon on Twitter. 31. How to Make the World Add Up -- Tim Harford. 32. Whole Numbers and Half Truths: What Data Can and Cannot Tell Us About Modern India -- Rukmini S. 33. Anti-Intellectualism in American Life -- Richard Hofstadter. 34. Understanding Statistics -- Antony Davies. 35. Anthills of the Savannah -- Chinua Achebe. 36. Elena Ferrante on Amazon. 37. A Gentleman in Moscow — Amor Towles. 38. Our Parliament and Our Democracy -- Episode 253 of The Seen and the Unseen (w MR Madhavan). Check out Amit's online courses, The Art of Clear Writing and The Art of Podcasting. And subscribe to The India Uncut Newsletter. It's free!

Most of our listeners do not need an introduction to the Bollywood superstar Shah Rukh Khan. You've watched his movies. You've sung the songs his films have popularized. You might even have had his poster on your wall growing up. A new book by the economist Shrayana Bhattacharya, Desperately Seeking Shah Rukh: India's Lonely Young Women and the Search for Intimacy and Independence, describes another role that Shah Rukh has fulfilled: he has been the north star for women across India as they search for intimacy, independence, and empowerment. Shrayana joins Milan on the podcast to discuss her new book—which is part economics tract, part reportage, part social commentary, and part feminist call to arms. Milan and Shrayana discuss how Shah Rukh has become a female (but not feminist) icon, the economics behind the lack of women's agency in India, and her own struggles with love and loneliness. Plus, the two discuss the mysteries of the Delhi social scene and the ways government policy can help challenge conservative, patriarchal social norms. K.X. Ronnie, “Interview, Shrayana Bhattacharya, author, Desperately Seeking Shah Rukh – “I'm a loud and proud feminist economist,” Hindustan Times, November 27, 2021.Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar, and Milan Vaishnav, “Introduction to e-Symposium: Urbanisation, gender, and social change in north India,” Ideas for India, December 6, 2021.Milan Vaishnav, “Women and work: How much does measurement matter?” Ideas for India, May 10, 2021.Ruth Pollard, “What a Bollywood Megastar Means for Women in India,” Bloomberg, December 9, 2021.   

Our political parties suck at governance but excel at narratives, as that's what wins them elections. Shivam Shankar Singh joins Amit Varma in episode 247 of The Seen and the Unseen to describe his experiences at the heart of different political machines. Also check out: 1. How to Win an Indian Election -- Shivam Shankar Singh. 2. The Art Of Conjuring Alternate Realities -- Shivam Shankar Singh and Anand Venkatanarayanan. 3. LAMP Fellowships. 4. The Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha websites. 5. Why I Am Resigning From the BJP -- Shivam Shankar Singh. 6. Is Parliament's questions system broken? — Here's how to fix it! -- Shivam Shankar Singh. 7. Episode of The Seen and the Unseen on China, in reverse chronological order: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. 8. In Absentia: Where are India's conservative intellectuals? -- Ramachandra Guha. 9. The Gita Press and Hindu Nationalism -- Episode 139 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Akshaya Mukul). 10. Political Ideology in India -- Episode 131 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Rahul Verma). 11. Dreamers: How Indians are Changing the World -- Snigdha Poonam. 12. Young India -- Episode 83 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Snigdha Poonam). 13. Maharashtra Politics Unscrambled -- Episode 151 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Sujatha Anandan). 14. The Lost Decade — Puja Mehra. 15. India's Lost Decade -- Episode 116 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Puja Mehra). 16. The Importance of the 1991 Reforms -- Episode 237 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shruti Rajagopalan and Ajay Shah). 17. Hamsini Hariharan's tweet on 'Indic'. 18. Private Truths, Public Lies -- Timur Kuran. 19. The Facts Do Not Matter -- Amit Varma. 20. Sample SSR conspiracy theory: He's alive! 21. Fighting Fake News -- Episode 133 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Pratik Sinha). 22. Range Rover -- The archives of Amit Varma's poker columns for the Economic Times. 23. A Tale Of Two Bandits: Naxals And The Indian State -- Amit Varma 24. Power and Prosperity -- Mancur Olson. 25. When Crime Pays — Milan Vaishnav. 26. Crime in Indian Politics -- Episode 114 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Milan Vaishnav). 27. Politics -- A limerick by Amit Varma. 28. Government's End -- Jonathan Rauch. 29. The Anti-Defection Law -- Episode 13 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Barun Mitra). 30. The Barkha Dutt Files -- Episode 243 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Barkha Dutt). 31. Urban Governance in India -- Episode 31 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shruti Rajagopalan). 32. The BJP Before Modi -- Episode 202 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vinay Sitapati). 33. How the BJP wins: Inside India's Greatest Election Machine -- Prashant Jha. 34. The BJP's Magic Formula -- Episode 45 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Prashant Jha). 35. Politics and the Sociopath -- Amit Varma. 36. A Life in Indian Politics -- Episode 149 of The Seen and the Unseen (w JP Narayan). 37. The Dictator's Handbook -- Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith. 38. The Psychology of Money -- Morgan Housel. 39. The Silent Coup: A History of India's Deep State — Josy Joseph. 40. India's Security State -- Episode 242 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Josy Joseph). 41. Marcus Aurelius and Epictetus on Amazon. This episode is sponsored by CTQ Compounds. Check out The Daily Reader, FutureStack and The Social Capital Compound. Use the code UNSEEN for Rs 2500 off. Please subscribe to The India Uncut Newsletter. It's free! And check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing.

This week on the Sinica Podcast, Kaiser welcomes former Acting Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and Pacific Affairs Susan Thornton to discuss a recently published audit of the Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED), the annual set of high-level meetings with Chinese officials that were convened during the Obama administration by the U.S. Departments of State and the Treasury. The audit's two lead authors, representing the two organizations behind the audit, the National Committee on U.S. Foreign Policy and the American Friends Service Committee, also join the conversation. Rorry Daniels is the Deputy Project Director at the National Committee on American Foreign Policy's Forum on Asia-Pacific Security, where she organizes research and Track II discussions on security issues and conflict mediation in the Asia-Pacific. Daniel Jasper is the Public Education and Advocacy Coordinator, Asia, for the American Friends Service Committee, where his work focuses on China and North Korea. Susan, Rorry, and Dan make a strong case that, contrary to an emerging bipartisan consensus in Washington that engagement with China was a failure, the policy of engagement actually bore substantial fruit.6:12 – The SED and the S&ED — why the ampersand matters10:37 – The rationale behind the S&ED16:15 – In the room at the S&ED meetings30:12 – Critiques of the S&ED process36:47 – The mechanics of the S&ED audit44:13 – Five major accomplishments of the S&ED1:01:38 – Other surprising U.S. gains from the S&ED1:10:51 – How could the process be improved?A transcript of this interview is available on SupChina.com. Recommendations:Rorry: The Good Place (a TV show by Michael Schur) and the eponymous podcast hosted by Tara Brach.Dan: Silence: The Power of Quiet in a World Full of Noise, by Thich Nhat Hanh, and The China Hustle, a documentary on China-focused short sellers, by Jed Rothstein.Susan: The Incredible Dr. Pol, a reality show about a veterinarian on National Geographic; Hidden Forces, a podcast hosted by Demetri Kofinas; and China and Japan: Facing History, the last book by the great scholar Ezra Vogel.Kaiser: Wildland: The Making of America's Fury, by Evan Osnos, especially in audiobook form, read by the author, and Grand Tamasha, a podcast about current affairs in India, hosted by Milan Vaishnav.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

What exactly is going on between India and China? When cooperation would lead to a win-win game, why is there conflict? Kanti Bajpai joins Amit Varma in episode 234 of The Seen and the Unseen to share his Four Ps framework for understanding this conflict. Also discussed: academia, public intellectuals, how one learns, and why writing and teaching make you a better thinker Also check out: 1. India Versus China : Why They Are Not Friends -- Kanti Bajpai. 2. Roots of Terrorism -- Kanti Bajpai. 3. Kanti Bajpai on Amazon. 4. The China Dude Is in the House -- Episode 231 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Manoj Kewalramani). 5. The Dragon and the Elephant — Episode 181 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Hamsini Hariharan & Shibani Mehta). 6. What Does China Want? — Episode 143 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Manoj Kewalramani). 7. Understanding Terrorism -- Amit Varma's 2007 review of Alan Krueger's What Makes a Terorrist.8. Soft Power: The Means To Success In World Politics -- Joseph Nye. 9. The Future of Power -- Joseph Nye. 10. Roam Research. 11. Why India and China Are Not Friends -- Kanti Bajpai on The Grand Tamasha podcast, hosted by Milan Vaishnav. 12. A Cricket Tragic Celebrates the Game -- Episode 201 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ramachandra Guha). 13. The Hedgehog And The Fox -- Isaiah Berlin. 14. Kishore Mahbubani on Amazon. 15. Imagined Communities -- Benedict Anderson. 16. Memories and Things -- Episode 195 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Aanchal Malhotra). 17. The Mahatma and the Poet — The Tagore-Gandhi debates. 18. From Heaven Lake -- Vikram Seth. 19. Finding India in China -- Anurag Viswanath. 20. Strangers across the Border -- Reshma Patil. Please subscribe to The India Uncut Newsletter. It's free! And check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing.