Podcast appearances and mentions of ankit panda

We listen back on more than a dozen guests from conversations across 2024.  Guests (in order): Fabian Hinz, research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies; Bruce Hoffman, senior fellow for counterterrorism and homeland security at the Council on Foreign Relations, and co-author of "God, Guns, and Sedition: Far-Right Terrorism in America"; Karolina Hird, analyst and Russia Deputy Team Lead at the Institute for the Study of War; Elliot Ackerman, co-author of "2054: A Novel"; Mackenzie Eaglen, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where she works on defense strategy, defense budgets, and military readiness; Ankit Panda, Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Chris Blattman, economist, political scientist, and Ramalee E. Pearson Professor of Global Conflict Studies at the University of Chicago, and author of the 2022 book, "Why We Fight: The Roots of War and the Paths to Peace"; Mick Ryan, retired Australian Army major general, strategist, and author of “White Sun War: The Campaign for Taiwan"; Dmitri Alperovitch, chairman of the Silverado Policy Accelerator, a geopolitics think-tank in Washington, and author of “World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century"; Sam Skove, former Defense One staff writer; Mark Montgomery, a retired U.S. Navy rear admiral, is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington and senior director of FDD's Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation; Peter Tamte, founder and CEO of Victura; And Brent Sadler, retired Navy captain and senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation.

➡️ If you enjoy this podcast and you want to help to make its existence possible, join our community of geopolitics enthusiasts on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics ➡️ Sign up to my upcoming geopolitics newsletter: https://station-zero.beehiiv.com/subscribe ➡️ Thank you Conducttr for sponsoring the podcast. Take a look at Conducttr's services and its crisis exercise software at: https://www.conducttr.com This is an interview with Ankit Panda. Ankit is an expert on nuclear strategy, arms control, missile defense, nonproliferation, deterrence and he is a Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.And in this conversation, we talked about everything related to nuclear weapons. Why are they coming back to fashion, why are we living through the beginning of another nuclear arms race, why are countries and leaders becoming increasingly more comfortable with the idea of a limited nuclear war and much much more.

After decades of treaties and diplomacy curbing fears over the use of nuclear weaponry, does today's conflicted world surface the threat of a new nuclear age? Following the brinkmanship of the Cold War, an era of non-proliferation saw stockpiles of weapons cut dramatically. Yet concerns grow that nuclear arsenals may expand again. Gavin Esler discusses a potential new arms race with Ankit Panda, Stanton senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and hears about the history of non-proliferation from Hans Kristensen, Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists. Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this.    Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn and Eliza Davis Beard. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production.   www.podmasters.co.uk  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Ngày 19/06/2024, tổng thống Nga Vladimir Putin đã họp thượng đỉnh với lãnh đạo Bắc Triều Tiên Kim Jong Un tại Bình Nhưỡng. Nhân dịp này, hai bên đã ký kết thỏa thuận quan hệ đối tác. Phương Tây, kể cả Hàn Quốc và Nhật Bản, cho rằng chuyến thăm Bắc Triều Tiên của nguyên thủ Nga đặt Bắc Kinh vào thế khó xử, nhưng phần lớn giới học giả Trung Quốc nhận định việc Nga – Triều tái lập liên minh là có lợi cho mục tiêu lớn của Bắc Kinh : Chống thế bá quyền của Mỹ! Nga – Bắc Triều Tiên nâng cấp quan hệ là cần thiếtTheo trang The Diplomat (03/07/2024), điều duy nhất mà một bên là Mỹ cùng các đồng minh và bên kia là Trung Quốc đều đồng tình đó là chuyến thăm Bình Nhưỡng của tổng thống Putin nhằm vực dậy mối « liên minh » bằng hữu xã hội chủ nghĩa có từ hàng thập kỷ giữa Bắc Triều Tiên và Nga (trước đó là Liên Xô) là cần thiết. Matxcơva hiện đang bị cô lập và suy yếu về mặt địa chính trị, hệ quả của cuộc chiến tổng lực mà Nga tiến hành tại Ukraina.Về điểm này, David Teurtrie, tiến sĩ địa lý, Viện Nghiên cứu Cao học Công giáo, trả lời RFI Tiếng Việt, giải thích ít nhất có hai lý do để Nga và Bắc Triều Tiên thắt chặt hơn mối quan hệ đối tác.David Teurtrie : « Như chúng ta đã biết, Bắc Triều Tiên là một quốc gia cực  kỳ khép kín và đang hứng chịu các đòn trừng phạt quốc tế từ nhiều thập niên qua. Do vậy, nước này giờ hầu như trở nên "vô cảm" với các trừng phạt, nếu Bắc Triều Tiên có hợp tác với Nga thì điều đó cũng không làm thay đổi gì nhiều cho nước này. Bắc Triều Tiên chẳng còn sợ các biện pháp trừng phạt của phương Tây, bởi vì họ đã bị các đòn trừng phạt. Đây là điểm thứ nhất.Điều thứ hai, Bắc Triều Tiên là một nước đã được quân sự hóa rất cao và có khả năng sản xuất số lượng lớn vũ khí, nhất là đạn pháo. Tuy nhiên, dù Nga sản xuất đạn pháo nhiều hơn của phương Tây, rõ ràng nước này muốn có thể sử dụng ngay một lượng lớn đạn pháo để giành lợi thế ở Ukraina và sau đó có lẽ cũng để tái lập kho dự trữ của mình. Trong bối cảnh này, Nga đã xích lại gần Bắc Triều Tiên. Dĩ nhiên là các nước trong khu vực như Nhật Bản và Hàn Quốc theo dõi vụ việc với nỗi lo lắng, bởi vì họ sợ rằng đáp lại, Nga sẽ hỗ trợ Bắc Triều Tiên trong một số lĩnh vực. Vì vậy, sẽ có một sự tái cân bằng quân sự trong vùng, hệ quả gián tiếp của cuộc chiến ở Ukraina. »Chỉ vài giờ sau khi Matxcơva và Bình Nhưỡng ký kết hiệp ước quốc phòng mới, ngoại trưởng Anthony Blinken khi trao đổi điện thoại với đồng cấp Hàn Quốc đã lên án mối hợp tác quân sự ngày càng được củng cố giữa Nga và Bắc Triều Tiên.Trung Quốc « mềm mỏng »Giới phân tích phương Tây e ngại rằng quan hệ giữa Kim Jong Un và Vladimir Putin còn khuyến khích Bắc Triều Tiên thêm hung hăng. Trên tuần báo kinh tế Anh, The Economist, chuyên gia Ankit Panda, Quỹ Carnegie vì Hòa bình Thế giới, tóm lược « đây là một cơ hội chiến lược lớn nhất cho Bắc Triều Tiên từ khi Chiến Tranh Lạnh kết thúc. »Nếu như phương Tây đặc biệt chú ý đến chuyến công du Bình Nhưỡng của nguyên thủ Nga, lo lắng về hợp tác quân sự giữa một nước Nga « hiếu chiến » và một Bắc Triều Tiên « bất hảo », thì ngược lại Trung Quốc có những phản ứng rất « mềm mỏng »,  không tỏ ra quan ngại, nhưng cũng không hoan nghênh hiệp ước quốc phòng Nga - Triều.Bình luận chính thức từ Bắc Kinh là tuyên bố của thứ trưởng ngoại giao Tôn Vệ Đông, « Bắc Triều Tiên và Nga, hai quốc gia láng giềng thân thiện, có nhu cầu trao đổi và phát triển mối quan hệ bình thường và cuộc gặp cấp cao của họ là những thỏa thuận song phương giữa hai nước có chủ quyền. »Làm thế nào giải thích cho phản ứng « yếu ớt » này của Trung Quốc trước việc Nga và Bắc Triều Tiên xích lại gần hơn với một hiệp ước quốc phòng mới, có nguy cơ làm nghiêng cán cân quyền lực giữa ba nước độc tài ?Hãng tin Mỹ AP ngày 21/06/2024 dẫn phân tích của nhà nghiên cứu Victor Cha1 cho rằng đó có thể là dấu hiệu cho thấy Bắc Kinh chưa biết phải làm gì. Theo ông Cha, một số nhà phân tích ở Bắc Kinh có thể hoan nghênh quan hệ đối tác Nga - Triều, xem đấy như là cách để đẩy lùi thế thống trị của Mỹ, nhưng số khác lo lắng trước nguy cơ bất ổn do nước Nga gây ra, đưa xung đột ở châu Âu vào châu Á. Chính sách « hướng đông » của Nga buộc Trung Quốc phải cảnh giác rằng sự hiện diện ngày càng mạnh của Nga có khả năng gây ra bất ổn cho bán đảo Triều Tiên.Thượng đỉnh Putin - Kim: Thời điểm thuận lợiNhưng nhà nghiên cứu Hemant Adlakha2 trên trang The Diplomat lưu ý, để hiểu được « thâm ý » của Bắc Kinh về sự kiện này, cần phải quan sát phản ứng của các nhà phân tích trên khắp cả nước cùng với nhiều tổ chức tư vấn, các khoa đại học ở Trung Quốc. Phần đông những người này đều có phản ứng về việc ông Putin ủng hộ Bắc Triều Tiên, ít nhất vì ba điểm.Thứ nhất, thời điểm hoàn hảo của thượng đỉnh Kim - Putin. Dựa vào các nguồn tin được loan truyền trên diễn đàn sohu.com, nhà quan sát Adlakha nhận thấy ngày giờ chuyến thăm Bình Nhưỡng dường như đã được Matxcơva tính toán với sự tham vấn của Bắc Kinh. Tổng thống Nga Vladimir Putin đã rút ngắn thời gian chuyến thăm xuống còn một ngày, thay vì hai ngày, khi đến Bình Nhưỡng lúc ba giờ sáng mà không thông báo cho đồng nhiệm Bắc Triều Tiên.Nhiều nhà phân tích Trung Quốc cho rằng, quyết định này của nguyên thủ Nga là nhằm tránh có những tác động bất lợi cho cuộc họp cấp cao ba bên Trung – Nhật – Hàn đang diễn ra và quan trọng hơn, theo quan điểm của Bắc Kinh, một vòng đàm phán song phương mới Seoul – Bắc Kinh, cuộc họp cấp thứ trưởng 2+2 đầu tiên về ngoại giao và an ninh đang diễn ra cùng lúc tại Seoul.Do vậy, để « giữ thể diện cho Kim Jong Un », tổng thống Nga đã dừng chân đột xuất hơn 5 tiếng đồng hồ ở Yakutsk, thủ đô cộng hòa Sakha của Nga để thị sát và trao đổi với người dân địa phương. Và sự chậm trễ này cũng giúp Bắc Kinh tránh phải giải thích cho Seoul lý do Trung Quốc « im lặng » trước sự can dự của Nga (cùng với Bắc Triều Tiên) gây nguy hiểm cho tình hình an ninh bán đảo, vì ông Putin chỉ bắt đầu chuyến thăm sau khi hội nghị 2+2 kết thúc.Cải thiện quan hệ Trung Quốc - Liên ÂuThứ hai,Bắc Kinh cho rằng việc Nga và Bắc Triều Tiên siết chặt quan hệ mang lại nhiều lợi thế. Đầu tiên hết, hiệp ước quân sự Nga – Triều khiến Mỹ lo ngại, thậm chí sợ hãi, và do vậy, đối với nhiều nhà phân tích, việc Putin và Kim xích lại gần hơn là « một sự lựa chọn hợp lý ».Tiếp đến, việc Bình Nhưỡng cung cấp đạn dược cho Matxcơva có thể giúp Bắc Kinh giảm bớt một số hoạt động giao thương với Nga, và như vậy giúp cải thiện mối quan hệ Trung Quốc - Liên Hiệp Châu Âu, do các nước Liên Âu xem việc xuất khẩu hàng hóa lưỡng dụng sang Nga là mối đe dọa lớn.Sau cùng, các nhà bình luận Trung Quốc đánh giá, việc Bình Nhưỡng xuất khẩu đạn pháo cho Nga có thể giúp cải thiện sự ổn định trên bán đảo Triều Tiên. Lý do là cuộc trao đổi này sẽ làm cạn kiệt kho vũ khí của Bắc Triều Tiên, giúp cho nỗ lực của Bắc Kinh duy trì hòa bình và ổn định Đông Bắc Á.Cũng theo phân tích từ giới học thuật Trung Quốc, những áp lực quân sự, đà bành trướng chủ nghĩa đế quốc Mỹ và các đồng minh NATO, từ sự mở rộng  liên minh quân sự ở châu Âu, cuộc xung đột Nga – Ukraina, cho đến các liên minh quân sự do Mỹ dẫn đầu ở Đông Bắc Á nhắm vào Bắc Triều Tiên đã thúc đẩy Nga – Bắc Triều Tiên nâng cấp quan hệ. Chiến lược lâu dài của Mỹ và các đồng minh nhằm cô lập, kềm chế Nga và Bắc Triều Tiên sẽ tự động thúc đẩy hai nước hợp tác để đối phó với mối đe dọa chung này.Cầu Đồ Môn : Lời hứa của Putin với Tập Cận BìnhLý do thứ ba được nhiều nhà phân tích nhắc đến và cho rằng còn quan trọng hơn cả Hiệp ước Đối tác Chiến lược Toàn diện Nga – Triều : Thỏa thuận giữa Putin và Kim về việc sớm xây dựng cây cầu xuyên biên giới bắc qua sông Đồ Môn. Điều này cho thấy tổng thống Nga đã giữ lời hứa với đồng nhiệm Trung Quốc nhân cuộc gặp thượng đỉnh hôm 16/5 : Cam kết đàm phán với Bắc Triều Tiên về cửa sông Đồ Môn.Trong quá khứ, Trung Quốc đã để mất khu vực đông bắc giáp với Nga, Bắc Triều Tiên và vùng biển Nhật Bản đã rơi vào tay đế quốc Nga sau Hiệp ước Bắc Kinh khi quân đội Anh và Pháp chiếm đóng Bắc Kinh năm 1860. Ngày nay phần lãnh thổ nhỏ này cản trở Trung Quốc tiếp cận biển Nhật Bản. Từ nhiều thập niên qua, Trung Quốc không ngừng tìm cách thúc đẩy dự án xây cầu, nối vùng Hồn Xuân (tỉnh Cát Lâm) của Trung Quốc với Sonbonguyok, Bắc Triều Tiên, nhưng bất thành.Theo quan sát từ trang Nikkei Asia của Nhật Bản, các yếu tố như « Chiến tranh lạnh mới », nỗi khao khát vũ khí hạt nhân ngày càng lớn của Bình Nhưỡng, xích mích ngày một tăng giữa hai miền Triều Tiên và nỗi bất an của Nhật Bản trước đà gia tăng sức mạnh quân sự của Trung Quốc đều có tác dụng gây trở ngại cho mong muốn ấp ủ từ lâu của Bắc Kinh nhằm tiếp cận Biển Nhật Bản thông qua biên giới sông Nga – Triều.Giới học giả Trung Quốc có vẻ hào hứng với thỏa thuận cầu vượt biên giới sông Đồ Môn ở Bình Nhưỡng, nhưng họ cũng không quên sự vỡ mộng đã tích tụ nhiều thập kỷ qua, khi hết thỏa thuận này đến thỏa thuận khác bị phớt lờ một cách lặng lẽ. Trong bối cảnh này, giới phân tích Trung Quốc theo dõi chặt chẽ mối quan hệ Nga – Triều trước khả năng đạt được ba mục tiêu của Trung Quốc : Cải thiện quan hệ với châu Âu, làm cạn kiệt kho vũ khí của Bắc Triều Tiên, và xây dựng cây cầu xuyên biên giới bắc qua sông Đồ Môn để ra biển Nhật Bản.Do vậy, trả lời phỏng vấn RFI Tiếng Việt, tiến sĩ địa lý David Teurtrie, Viện Nghiên cứu Cao học Công giáo nhận định, trái với nhiều phân tích cho rằng đối tác quốc phòng Nga - Triều khiến Trung Quốc khó chịu, việc Vladimir Putin và Kim Jong Un tăng cường quan hệ khó có thể làm tổn hại đến quan hệ Nga - Trung.David Teurtrie : « Điều rõ ràng à Matxcơva rất chú ý đến quan điểm của Bắc Kinh, bởi vì dẫu sao đi chăng nữa, đây còn là một đối tác lớn, một đối tác chính của Nga và hiển nhiên Nga không thể xa lánh Trung Quốc vào lúc này, đây không hoàn toàn là ý định của Matxcơva. Vì vậy, Nga sẽ phải tỏ ra cẩn trọng và chú ý đến những gì có thể khiến Trung Quốc e ngại là sự việc đã đi quá xa. Tôi nghĩ là họ vẫn sẽ khá cẩn thận.Bây giờ điều chúng ta cần ghi nhớ là mối quan hệ giữa Trung Quốc và Phương Tây đang xấu đi. Đối với Bắc Kinh, mối quan hệ hợp tác này không hoàn toàn là một vấn đề. Thậm chí cách nay 5 hay 6 năm, điều đó có lẽ sẽ gây phiền phức, bởi vì chúng có nguy cơ gây ra những căng thẳng mà Trung Quốc không mong muốn với phương Tây. Giờ chúng ta không còn trong giai đoạn đó nữa. »**********Ghi chú :1 – Victor Cha, phó chủ tịch cấp cao phụ trách châu Á và Hàn Quốc, Trung tâm Nghiên cứu Chiến lược Quốc tế CSIS.2 – Hemant Adlakha, giảng viên tiếng Hoa tại đại học Jawaharlal Nehru ở New Delhi. Ông cũng là phó Chủ tịch và là thành viên danh dự của Viện Nghiên cứu Trung Quốc (ICS), New Delhi.

Guest: Chris Blattman, economist, political scientist, and Ramalee E. Pearson Professor of Global Conflict Studies at the University of Chicago. Sources:  “Global military spending surges amid war, rising tensions and insecurity,” published April 2024 by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute;  “Back in Stock? The State of Russia's Defense Industry after Two Years of the War,” by Maria Snegovaya, Max Bergmann, Tina Dolbaia, Nick Fenton, and Samuel Bendett, published April 2024 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies;  “Keeping Up with the Pacing Threat: Unveiling the True Size of Beijing's Military Spending,” by Mackenzie Eaglen, published April 2024 by the American Enterprise Institute;  “Indo-Pacific Missile Arsenals: Avoiding Spirals and Mitigating Escalation Risks,” by Ankit Panda, published October 2023 by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace;  “Missile Proliferation and Control in the Asia-Pacific Region,” from Jeffrey Lewis and Kolja Brockmann, published April 2024 by the International Institute for Strategic Studies; And “Why We Fight: The Roots of War and the Paths to Peace,” from Chris Blattman, published April 2022 by Penguin Random House.

Guest: Maria Snegovaya, senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia with the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a postdoctoral fellow in Georgetown University's Walsh School of Foreign Service. Source material:  “Global military spending surges amid war, rising tensions and insecurity,” published April 2024 by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute;  “Back in Stock? The State of Russia's Defense Industry after Two Years of the War,” by Maria Snegovaya, Max Bergmann, Tina Dolbaia, Nick Fenton, and Samuel Bendett, published April 2024 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies;  “Keeping Up with the Pacing Threat: Unveiling the True Size of Beijing's Military Spending,” by Mackenzie Eaglen, published April 2024 by the American Enterprise Institute;  “Indo-Pacific Missile Arsenals: Avoiding Spirals and Mitigating Escalation Risks,” by Ankit Panda, published October 2023 by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace;  “Missile Proliferation and Control in the Asia-Pacific Region,” from Jeffrey Lewis and Kolja Brockmann, published April 2024 by the International Institute for Strategic Studies; And “Why We Fight: The Roots of War and the Paths to Peace,” from Chris Blattman, published April 2022 by Penguin Random House.

Guests: Mackenzie Eaglen, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where she works on defense strategy, defense budgets, and military readiness; And Ankit Panda, Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Sources:  “Global military spending surges amid war, rising tensions and insecurity,” published April 2024 by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute;  “Back in Stock? The State of Russia's Defense Industry after Two Years of the War,” by Maria Snegovaya, Max Bergmann, Tina Dolbaia, Nick Fenton, and Samuel Bendett, published April 2024 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies;  “Keeping Up with the Pacing Threat: Unveiling the True Size of Beijing's Military Spending,” by Mackenzie Eaglen, published April 2024 by the American Enterprise Institute;  “Indo-Pacific Missile Arsenals: Avoiding Spirals and Mitigating Escalation Risks,” by Ankit Panda, published October 2023 by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace;  “Missile Proliferation and Control in the Asia-Pacific Region,” from Jeffrey Lewis and Kolja Brockmann, published April 2024 by the International Institute for Strategic Studies; And “Why We Fight: The Roots of War and the Paths to Peace,” from Chris Blattman, published April 2022 by Penguin Random House.

On March 11, the Indian Defense Research and Development Organization conducted the maiden test of its Agni-V MIRV (Multiple Independently Targetable Re-Entry Vehicle) missile. MIRV capability is a complex technology and there are only a handful of countries that have developed it.The test represents a breakthrough for India's missile program but it's also prompted warnings of a new arms race in the Indo-Pacific, a region already marked by sharpening geopolitical rivalries. To discuss India's missile program, its defense posture, and its emerging space policy, Milan is joined on the show this week by Ankit Panda. Ankit is the Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He's an expert on the Asia-Pacific region and his work encompasses nuclear strategy, arms control, missile defense, nonproliferation, and emerging technologies.Ankit and Milan discuss the significance of India's MIRV test and the new “missile age” in the Indo-Pacific. Plus, the two discuss the China-India-Pakistan triangle, the importance of India's 2019 anti-satellite test, and the future of India's space policy.Episode notes:1. Ankit Panda, Indo-Pacific Missile Arsenals: Avoiding Spirals and Mitigating Escalation Risks (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2023).2. “Southern Asia's Nuclear Future with Ashley J. Tellis,” Grand Tamasha, October 26, 2022.3. Ankit Panda, “The Indo-Pacific's new missile age demands Washington's attention,” Breaking Defense, November 16, 2023.4. Ankit Panda, “How India's breakthrough as an ‘elite space power' devalues discovery and innovation,” South China Morning Post, April 7, 2019.5. Alex Travelli, “The Surprising Striver in the World's Space Business,” New York Times, July 4, 2023.6. Toby Dalton et al., “Dimming Prospects for U.S.-Russia Nonproliferation Cooperation,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, March 14, 2024.

As the world grapples again with the dangers of nuclear weapons use, Aaron sat down with Ankit Panda, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Heather Williams, the director of the project on nuclear issues and a senior fellow in the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, to discuss new nuclear dynamics, the meaning of deterrence, and debate about the future of U.S. nuclear weapons strategy. PS: We are hiring a membership editor. If you want to play a critical role in driving conversations and debates about national security, you should consider applying: https://apply.workable.com/war-on-the-rocks/j/2F3A361BCE/

Most people will not have missed the visit North Korea's leader, Kim Jong Un, to Russia last month. What went without comment was the significance of the realignment with Moscow and not Beijing. As the first foreign visit after three years of self-imposed pandemic national lockdown, the message was very clear: The Russia-Hermit Kingdom relationship is important. Russia needs ammunition and rockets for its on going war in Ukraine; the North Korean shopping list is more varied. It already has the diplomatic support needed at the UN and food aid continues to be delivered, so the cost to Russia is more likely to be material and knowledge based – satellite and military technologies trump that list. Nuclear demands probably are lower down since it appears that DPRK is already making preparations for its 5th test (under Kim Jung Un). What is a good response for Taiwan and the US? This was the question for Ankit Panda to ponder.

Welcome to a sneak peek of Thinking the Unthinkable, our newest members-only podcast. We are previewing this members-only podcast on this feed for free.  This members-only show features in-depth analysis and insight on the perils of a new nuclear age and is hosted by Ankit Panda. Expect Ankit to challenge views on nuclear weapons, deterrence, and explore the future of arms control. This show will come out bi-weekly for War on the Rocks members. If you like what you hear, consider joining War on the Rocks Platinum, where you can hear all of Ankit's future podcasts, along with the Russia Contingency with Michael Kofman and a slew of other podcasts and newsletters focused on national security. Join our tribe today to gain access to War on the Rocks Platinum.  

This is Garrison Hardie with your CrossPolitic Daily News Brief for Tuesday, September 12th, 2023. Fight Laugh Feast Conference - Ark Encounter This year, our Fight Laugh Feast Conference is at the Ark Encounter in Kentucky on The Politics of Six Day Creation. The politics of six day creation is the difference between a fixed standard of justice and a careening standard of justice, the difference between the corrosive relativism that creates mobs and anarchy and the freedom of objectivity, truth, and due process. The politics of six day creation establishes the authority and sufficiency of God’s Word for all of life: from what is a man or a woman, when does human life begin, and how is human society best organized? Come hear Ken Ham, Pastor Doug Wilson, Dr. Ben Merkle, Dr. Gordon Wilson, me and more, and of course a live CrossPolitic show! Mark your calendars for October 11th-14th, as we fight, laugh, and feast, with beer & psalms, our amazing lineup of speakers, our Rowdy Christian Merch, and a Sabbath Feast to wrap up the occasion. Maybe an infant baptism while we’re at it! Visit fightlaughfeast.com for more information! https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2023/09/10/estimated-300000-impacted-by-earthquake-in-morocco-with-at-least-2000-dead/ Estimated 300,000 Impacted by Earthquake in Morocco, with at Least 2,000 Dead A magnitude 3.9 aftershock rattled Moroccans on Sunday as they prayed for victims of the nation’s strongest earthquake in more than a century and worked to rescue survivors while soldiers and workers brought water and supplies to mountain villages in ruins. More than 2,000 people are dead – a number that is expected to rise. The United Nations estimated that 300,000 people were affected by Friday night’s magnitude 6.8 quake and some Moroccans complained on social networks that the government wasn’t allowing more help from outside. International aid crews were prepared to deploy, but remained in limbo waiting for the Morocco government to request their assistance. “We know there is a great urgency to save people and dig under the remains of buildings,” said the, founder of Rescuers Without Borders, who had a team stuck in Paris waiting for the green light. “There are people dying under the rubble, and we cannot do anything to save them.” Those left homeless – or fearing more aftershocks – from Friday night’s earthquake slept outside Saturday, in the streets of the ancient city of Marrakech or under makeshift canopies in Atlas Mountain towns like Moulay Brahim, which were among the hardest-hit. The worst destruction was in small, rural communities that are hard for rescuers to reach because of the mountainous terrain. Those same areas were shaken anew Sunday by a magnitude 3.9 quake, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. It wasn’t immediately clear if the temblor caused more damage or casualties, but it was likely strong enough to rattle nerves in areas where damage has left buildings unstable and people have spoken of their fears of aftershocks. The earthquake on Friday toppled buildings not built to withstand such a mighty quake, trapping people in the rubble and sending others fleeing in terror. A total of 2,012 people were confirmed dead and at least 2,059 more people were injured – 1,404 of them critically – Morocco’s Interior Ministry reported Saturday night. Flags were lowered across Morocco, as King Mohammed VI ordered three days of national mourning starting Sunday. The army mobilized specialized search and rescue teams, and the king ordered water, food rations and shelter to be provided to those who lost their homes. Aid offers have poured in from around the world and the U.N. said it had a team in Morocco coordinating with authorities about how international partners can provide support. About 100 teams made up of a total of 3,500 rescuers from around the world are registered with a U.N. platform and ready to deploy in Morocco when asked, Rescuers Without Borders said. In a sign that Morocco may be prepared to accept more help from outside, the Spanish military said it had sent an air force plane carrying an urban search and rescue team of 56 soldiers and four dogs to Marrakech to help. Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares said in a radio interview that the deployment was in response to a bilateral request for help from Moroccan authorities. Another rescue team from Nice, France, also was on its way. In France, home to many people with links to Morocco, towns and cities have offered more than 2 million euros ($2.1 million) in aid, and popular performers are rallying to collect donations. The Moroccan king ordered the opening of special bank accounts to allow donations to help those in need. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66771568 Kim Jong Un: North Korea leader's armoured train reportedly heading to meet Putin The armoured train that Mr Kim uses for foreign visits appears to have departed Pyongyang, South Korean media reported citing a government official. The meeting between the two leaders is expected to take place as early as Tuesday local time. The Kremlin has confirmed that Mr Kim will visit Russia "in the coming days". The Pentagon said it believes Mr Kim is travelling to Russia and it expects "some type of meeting", according to the BBC's US partner CBS News. If the summit with Mr Putin goes ahead, it will be the North Korean leader's first international trip in more than four years, and the first since the pandemic. The two leaders will likely discuss the possibility of North Korea providing Moscow with weapons to support its war in Ukraine, a US official earlier told CBS, the BBC's US partner. Mr Kim's last trip abroad was also to Vladivostok in 2019 for his first summit with Mr Putin after the collapse of North Korea's nuclear disarmament talks with then US President Donald Trump. It is rumoured to include at least 20 bulletproof cars, making it heavier than average trains and unable to go beyond 59 km/h (37mph). His journey to Vladivostok is expected to take an entire day. The possible meeting comes after the White House said it had new information that arms negotiations between the two countries were "actively advancing". National Security Council spokesman John Kirby earlier said Russia's Defence Minister, Sergei Shoigu, had tried to "convince Pyongyang to sell artillery ammunition" to Russia during a recent visit to North Korea. The summit comes at a time when both Russia and North Korea have things that the other country wants, according to Ankit Panda from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "What'll matter now is if both sides can find suitable prices they're willing to pay for the other's assistance," he told the BBC. Russia will likely ask North Korea for conventional arms, including artillery shells and rocket artillery munitions in exchange for food and raw materials, and continuing support at international forums like the United Nations, he said. "This could open up the possibility of North Korea transferring more sophisticated weaponry to Russia to allow Moscow to maintain and backfill its own stocks of conventional weapons," he said. It is thought that Russia might need 122mm and 152mm shells because its stocks are running low, but it is not easy to determine North Korea's full artillery inventory, given its secretive nature. Weapons on display at the meeting between Mr Kim and Mr Shoigu in July included the Hwasong intercontinental ballistic missile, believed to be the country's first ICBM to use solid propellants. It was the first time Mr Kim had opened the country's doors to foreign guests since the Covid pandemic. https://thepostmillennial.com/police-budget-cut-in-nyc-as-illegal-immigrant-crisis-forces-women-children-to-sleep-in-tents?utm_campaign=64487 Police budget cut in NYC as illegal immigrant crisis forces women, children to sleep in tents On Saturday, city officials announced that the New York Police Department's budget would be cut, with that money re-allocated to solving the migrant crisis. The move comes as New York City continues to deal with rampant crime and an unprecedented influx of illegal immigrants, many of whom, including women and children, may soon be forced out of shelters and into tents on the street. Budget Director Jacques Jiha revealed in a memo over the weekend explaining that Mayor Eric Adams, who recently said the migrant crisis could "destroy" the city, will soon "issue a directive to implement an overtime reduction initiative for our city's four uniformed agencies." These include the NYPD, the fire department, the corrections department, and the department of sanitation, all of whom provide vital services to the city and its residents. Jiha also asked the agencies to "track overtime spending and their progress in meeting the reduction target," and submit monthly reports to the city. The head of the Police Benevolent Association, Patrick Hendry, slammed the move as out of touch with reality. "It is going to be impossible for the NYPD to significantly reduce overtime unless it fixes its staffing crisis," he said. "We are still thousands of cops short, and we're struggling to drive crime back to pre-2020 levels without adequate personnel." As the Daily Mail reports, New York City is currently spending close to $10 million per day dealing with the surge of migrants, with no end to the crisis in sight. The massive cuts to the budgets of essential city services will only cover two-thirds of the projected costs. As more migrants arrive, shelters and other facilities have reached their breaking point. During an interview with PIX11 on Sunday, Adams said that those who had been given priority for indoor sleeping areas could lose that privilege. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/fauci-federal-recommendations-possible-not-mandates-uptick-covid Fauci says federal mask 'recommendations' are possible amid uptick in COVID Former White House chief medical adviser Anthony Fauci predicted Sunday that federal recommendations for masking may be given as COVID-19 cases continue to rise, but not federal mandates. In an appearance on ABC's This Week, Fauci told Jon Karl he would be "extremely surprised" if a federal mask mandate were put in place. "I can see that if we get a significant uptick in cases that you may see the recommendation that masks be used under certain circumstances and indoor crowded settings, but I don't see there'd be certainly not federal mandates," he said. "There may be local organizations that may require masks, but I think what we're gonna see mostly are, if the cases go up that there might be recommendations, not mandates. There's a big difference there," Fauci continued. Karl also pressed the former National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases director at the National Institutes of Health on the efficacy of masking in retrospect. Asked about new studies indicating that the practice of masking may not have been effective in containing the COVID-19 virus, Fauci claimed some studies are being misconstrued. https://www.foxnews.com/sports/michigan-state-suspends-mel-tucker-without-pay-sexual-harassment-allegations Michigan State suspends Mel Tucker without pay amid sexual harassment allegations Michigan State suspended football coach Mel Tucker Sunday amid an investigation after he was accused of sexually harassing a rape survivor last year. Michigan State athletic director Alan Haller made the announcement following conflicting reports Tucker was going to be fired and/or suspended. He added that Tucker was suspended without pay. Tucker has been the head coach of the Spartans since 2020 and signed a 10-year, $95 million contract extension in November 2021. The allegations against Tucker surfaced earlier in the day in a USA Today report. According to ESPN, he was under investigation over the allegations. Michigan State secondary coach Harlon Barnett will serve as the interim head coach. Former coach Mark Dantonio is returning as an associate head coach. Brenda Tracy, a sexual assault prevention advocate who was gang raped by four college football players in 1998, filed the complaint against Tucker and alleged the coach had asked whether she would date him if he weren’t already married and gratified himself without her consent during a phone call, according to USA Today. Tucker claims all of this was consensual - stating: "Ms. Tracy’s distortion of our mutually consensual and intimate relationship into allegations of sexual exploitation has really affected me," Tucker wrote to the Title IX investigator in March, according to USA Today. "I am not proud of my judgment and I am having difficulty forgiving myself for getting into this situation, but I did not engage in misconduct by any definition."

This is Garrison Hardie with your CrossPolitic Daily News Brief for Tuesday, September 12th, 2023. Fight Laugh Feast Conference - Ark Encounter This year, our Fight Laugh Feast Conference is at the Ark Encounter in Kentucky on The Politics of Six Day Creation. The politics of six day creation is the difference between a fixed standard of justice and a careening standard of justice, the difference between the corrosive relativism that creates mobs and anarchy and the freedom of objectivity, truth, and due process. The politics of six day creation establishes the authority and sufficiency of God’s Word for all of life: from what is a man or a woman, when does human life begin, and how is human society best organized? Come hear Ken Ham, Pastor Doug Wilson, Dr. Ben Merkle, Dr. Gordon Wilson, me and more, and of course a live CrossPolitic show! Mark your calendars for October 11th-14th, as we fight, laugh, and feast, with beer & psalms, our amazing lineup of speakers, our Rowdy Christian Merch, and a Sabbath Feast to wrap up the occasion. Maybe an infant baptism while we’re at it! Visit fightlaughfeast.com for more information! https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2023/09/10/estimated-300000-impacted-by-earthquake-in-morocco-with-at-least-2000-dead/ Estimated 300,000 Impacted by Earthquake in Morocco, with at Least 2,000 Dead A magnitude 3.9 aftershock rattled Moroccans on Sunday as they prayed for victims of the nation’s strongest earthquake in more than a century and worked to rescue survivors while soldiers and workers brought water and supplies to mountain villages in ruins. More than 2,000 people are dead – a number that is expected to rise. The United Nations estimated that 300,000 people were affected by Friday night’s magnitude 6.8 quake and some Moroccans complained on social networks that the government wasn’t allowing more help from outside. International aid crews were prepared to deploy, but remained in limbo waiting for the Morocco government to request their assistance. “We know there is a great urgency to save people and dig under the remains of buildings,” said the, founder of Rescuers Without Borders, who had a team stuck in Paris waiting for the green light. “There are people dying under the rubble, and we cannot do anything to save them.” Those left homeless – or fearing more aftershocks – from Friday night’s earthquake slept outside Saturday, in the streets of the ancient city of Marrakech or under makeshift canopies in Atlas Mountain towns like Moulay Brahim, which were among the hardest-hit. The worst destruction was in small, rural communities that are hard for rescuers to reach because of the mountainous terrain. Those same areas were shaken anew Sunday by a magnitude 3.9 quake, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. It wasn’t immediately clear if the temblor caused more damage or casualties, but it was likely strong enough to rattle nerves in areas where damage has left buildings unstable and people have spoken of their fears of aftershocks. The earthquake on Friday toppled buildings not built to withstand such a mighty quake, trapping people in the rubble and sending others fleeing in terror. A total of 2,012 people were confirmed dead and at least 2,059 more people were injured – 1,404 of them critically – Morocco’s Interior Ministry reported Saturday night. Flags were lowered across Morocco, as King Mohammed VI ordered three days of national mourning starting Sunday. The army mobilized specialized search and rescue teams, and the king ordered water, food rations and shelter to be provided to those who lost their homes. Aid offers have poured in from around the world and the U.N. said it had a team in Morocco coordinating with authorities about how international partners can provide support. About 100 teams made up of a total of 3,500 rescuers from around the world are registered with a U.N. platform and ready to deploy in Morocco when asked, Rescuers Without Borders said. In a sign that Morocco may be prepared to accept more help from outside, the Spanish military said it had sent an air force plane carrying an urban search and rescue team of 56 soldiers and four dogs to Marrakech to help. Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares said in a radio interview that the deployment was in response to a bilateral request for help from Moroccan authorities. Another rescue team from Nice, France, also was on its way. In France, home to many people with links to Morocco, towns and cities have offered more than 2 million euros ($2.1 million) in aid, and popular performers are rallying to collect donations. The Moroccan king ordered the opening of special bank accounts to allow donations to help those in need. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66771568 Kim Jong Un: North Korea leader's armoured train reportedly heading to meet Putin The armoured train that Mr Kim uses for foreign visits appears to have departed Pyongyang, South Korean media reported citing a government official. The meeting between the two leaders is expected to take place as early as Tuesday local time. The Kremlin has confirmed that Mr Kim will visit Russia "in the coming days". The Pentagon said it believes Mr Kim is travelling to Russia and it expects "some type of meeting", according to the BBC's US partner CBS News. If the summit with Mr Putin goes ahead, it will be the North Korean leader's first international trip in more than four years, and the first since the pandemic. The two leaders will likely discuss the possibility of North Korea providing Moscow with weapons to support its war in Ukraine, a US official earlier told CBS, the BBC's US partner. Mr Kim's last trip abroad was also to Vladivostok in 2019 for his first summit with Mr Putin after the collapse of North Korea's nuclear disarmament talks with then US President Donald Trump. It is rumoured to include at least 20 bulletproof cars, making it heavier than average trains and unable to go beyond 59 km/h (37mph). His journey to Vladivostok is expected to take an entire day. The possible meeting comes after the White House said it had new information that arms negotiations between the two countries were "actively advancing". National Security Council spokesman John Kirby earlier said Russia's Defence Minister, Sergei Shoigu, had tried to "convince Pyongyang to sell artillery ammunition" to Russia during a recent visit to North Korea. The summit comes at a time when both Russia and North Korea have things that the other country wants, according to Ankit Panda from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "What'll matter now is if both sides can find suitable prices they're willing to pay for the other's assistance," he told the BBC. Russia will likely ask North Korea for conventional arms, including artillery shells and rocket artillery munitions in exchange for food and raw materials, and continuing support at international forums like the United Nations, he said. "This could open up the possibility of North Korea transferring more sophisticated weaponry to Russia to allow Moscow to maintain and backfill its own stocks of conventional weapons," he said. It is thought that Russia might need 122mm and 152mm shells because its stocks are running low, but it is not easy to determine North Korea's full artillery inventory, given its secretive nature. Weapons on display at the meeting between Mr Kim and Mr Shoigu in July included the Hwasong intercontinental ballistic missile, believed to be the country's first ICBM to use solid propellants. It was the first time Mr Kim had opened the country's doors to foreign guests since the Covid pandemic. https://thepostmillennial.com/police-budget-cut-in-nyc-as-illegal-immigrant-crisis-forces-women-children-to-sleep-in-tents?utm_campaign=64487 Police budget cut in NYC as illegal immigrant crisis forces women, children to sleep in tents On Saturday, city officials announced that the New York Police Department's budget would be cut, with that money re-allocated to solving the migrant crisis. The move comes as New York City continues to deal with rampant crime and an unprecedented influx of illegal immigrants, many of whom, including women and children, may soon be forced out of shelters and into tents on the street. Budget Director Jacques Jiha revealed in a memo over the weekend explaining that Mayor Eric Adams, who recently said the migrant crisis could "destroy" the city, will soon "issue a directive to implement an overtime reduction initiative for our city's four uniformed agencies." These include the NYPD, the fire department, the corrections department, and the department of sanitation, all of whom provide vital services to the city and its residents. Jiha also asked the agencies to "track overtime spending and their progress in meeting the reduction target," and submit monthly reports to the city. The head of the Police Benevolent Association, Patrick Hendry, slammed the move as out of touch with reality. "It is going to be impossible for the NYPD to significantly reduce overtime unless it fixes its staffing crisis," he said. "We are still thousands of cops short, and we're struggling to drive crime back to pre-2020 levels without adequate personnel." As the Daily Mail reports, New York City is currently spending close to $10 million per day dealing with the surge of migrants, with no end to the crisis in sight. The massive cuts to the budgets of essential city services will only cover two-thirds of the projected costs. As more migrants arrive, shelters and other facilities have reached their breaking point. During an interview with PIX11 on Sunday, Adams said that those who had been given priority for indoor sleeping areas could lose that privilege. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/fauci-federal-recommendations-possible-not-mandates-uptick-covid Fauci says federal mask 'recommendations' are possible amid uptick in COVID Former White House chief medical adviser Anthony Fauci predicted Sunday that federal recommendations for masking may be given as COVID-19 cases continue to rise, but not federal mandates. In an appearance on ABC's This Week, Fauci told Jon Karl he would be "extremely surprised" if a federal mask mandate were put in place. "I can see that if we get a significant uptick in cases that you may see the recommendation that masks be used under certain circumstances and indoor crowded settings, but I don't see there'd be certainly not federal mandates," he said. "There may be local organizations that may require masks, but I think what we're gonna see mostly are, if the cases go up that there might be recommendations, not mandates. There's a big difference there," Fauci continued. Karl also pressed the former National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases director at the National Institutes of Health on the efficacy of masking in retrospect. Asked about new studies indicating that the practice of masking may not have been effective in containing the COVID-19 virus, Fauci claimed some studies are being misconstrued. https://www.foxnews.com/sports/michigan-state-suspends-mel-tucker-without-pay-sexual-harassment-allegations Michigan State suspends Mel Tucker without pay amid sexual harassment allegations Michigan State suspended football coach Mel Tucker Sunday amid an investigation after he was accused of sexually harassing a rape survivor last year. Michigan State athletic director Alan Haller made the announcement following conflicting reports Tucker was going to be fired and/or suspended. He added that Tucker was suspended without pay. Tucker has been the head coach of the Spartans since 2020 and signed a 10-year, $95 million contract extension in November 2021. The allegations against Tucker surfaced earlier in the day in a USA Today report. According to ESPN, he was under investigation over the allegations. Michigan State secondary coach Harlon Barnett will serve as the interim head coach. Former coach Mark Dantonio is returning as an associate head coach. Brenda Tracy, a sexual assault prevention advocate who was gang raped by four college football players in 1998, filed the complaint against Tucker and alleged the coach had asked whether she would date him if he weren’t already married and gratified himself without her consent during a phone call, according to USA Today. Tucker claims all of this was consensual - stating: "Ms. Tracy’s distortion of our mutually consensual and intimate relationship into allegations of sexual exploitation has really affected me," Tucker wrote to the Title IX investigator in March, according to USA Today. "I am not proud of my judgment and I am having difficulty forgiving myself for getting into this situation, but I did not engage in misconduct by any definition."

In this episode, Dr. Victor Cha is joined by Mr. Ankit Panda to discuss the recent North Korea's military spy satellite launch from the Sohae satellite launch site, North Korea's weapons development, and the 7th nuclear test.

Ankit Panda joins Jeffrey by the every so fancy pool at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, where they talk about competing speeches and messaging, the views on US-China competition from Southeast Asia, and about how Jeffrey didn't make any new friends in the PLA this year. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

What is the 3rd Nuclear Age? Wait, what about the 1st and 2nd? Join Shelly as she speaks to Stanton Senior Fellow Ankit Panda about how the world is grabbling with nuclear proliferation and what challenges we face.

Last year, North Korea conducted a record number of ballistic missile test and appears to soon conduct another nuclear test. These developments have aggravated South Korea's concern about U.S. extended deterrence commitments. Ankit Panda, Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, joins us today to discuss the … Continue reading Extended Deterrence

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Philanthropy to the Right of Boom [Founders Pledge], published by christian.r on February 14, 2023 on The Effective Altruism Forum. Background and Acknowledgements: This write-up represents part of an ongoing Founders Pledge research project to understand the landscape of nuclear risk and philanthropic support of nuclear risk reduction measures. It is in some respects a work in progress and can be viewed as a Google Document here and on Founders Pledge's website here. With thanks to James Acton, Conor Barnes, Tom Barnes, Patty-Jane Geller, Matthew Gentzel, Matt Lerner, Jeffrey Lewis, Ankit Panda, Andrew Reddie, and Carl Robichaud for reviewing this document and for their thoughtful comments and suggestions. “The Nuclear Equivalent of Mosquito Nets” In philanthropy, the term “impact multipliers” refers to features of the world that make one funding opportunity relatively more effective than another. Stacking these multipliers makes effectiveness a “conjunction of multipliers;” understanding this conjunction can in turn help guide philanthropists seeking to maximize impact under high uncertainty. Not all impact multipliers are created equal, however. To systematically engage in effective giving, philanthropists must understand the largest impact multipliers — “critical multipliers” — those features that most dramatically cleave more effective interventions from less effective interventions. In global health and development, for example, one critical multiplier is simply to focus on the world's poorest people. Because of large inequalities in wealth and the decreasing marginal utility of money, helping people living in extreme poverty rather than people in the Global North is a critical multiplier that winnows the field of possible interventions more than many other possible multipliers. Additional considerations — the prevalence of mosquito-borne illnesses, the low cost and scalability of bednet distribution, and more — ultimately point philanthropists in global health and development to one of the most effective interventions to reduce suffering in the near term: funding the distribution of insecticide-treated bednets. This write-up represents an attempt to identify a defensible critical multiplier in nuclear philanthropy, and potentially to move one step closer to finding “the nuclear equivalent of mosquito nets.” Impact Multipliers in Nuclear Philanthropy There are many potential impact multipliers in nuclear philanthropy. For example, focusing on states with large nuclear arsenals may be more impactful than focusing on nuclear terrorism. Nuclear terrorism would be horrific and a single attack in a city (e.g. with a dirty bomb) could kill thousands of people, injure many more, and cause long-lasting damage to the physical and mental health of millions. All-out nuclear war between the United States and Russia, however, would be many times worse. Hundreds of millions of people would likely die from the direct effects of a war. If we believe nuclear winter modeling, moreover, there may be many more deaths from climate effects and famine. In the worst case, civilization could collapse. Simplifying these effects, suppose for the sake of argument that a nuclear terrorist attack could kill 100,000 people, and an all-out nuclear war could kill 1 billion people. All else equal, in this scenario it would be 10,000 times more effective to focus on preventing all-out war than it is to focus on nuclear terrorism. Generalizing this pattern, philanthropists ought to prioritize the largest nuclear wars (again, all else equal) when thinking about additional resources at the margin. This can be operationalized with real numbers — nuclear arsenal size, military spending, and other measures can serve as proxy variables for the severity of nuclear war, yielding rough multipliers. This w...

Peter talks to Ankit Panda from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace about all things North Korea, but specifically their nuclear missile programme. After a busy 2022, it appears as though Kim Jong-un's hermit kingdom will continue a similar pace of testing and developments over the next 12 months – increasing further the risk of a clash on the peninsula. Add to that the changing nature of the relationships between Pyongyang, Moscow and Beijing, and you will start to appreciate why the incoherence of the US policy dilemma for DPRK needs addressing.

To start off the new year, Tom Collina sits down with Ankit Panda, Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the author of Kim Jong Un and the Bomb: Survival and Deterrence in North Korea. He discusses Kim's plans to increase the production of nuclear weapons and what kind of US diplomatic efforts we might see in response. On Early Warning, Angela Kellett talks with John Pope, Chief Audience Officer at the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. They discuss the historical significance of the Doomsday Clock as the Bulletin prepares to unveil this year's clock setting on January 24th.

Anti-lockdown protests are sweeping the cities of Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. What does the unrest tell us about China's response to COVID-19? How serious a challenge are they for Xi Jinping's legitimacy so soon after the 20th Party Congress? Meanwhile on the Korean Peninsula, 2022 has been a record year for Pyongyang's ballistic missile tests. How far has the North's nuclear programme and its missile systems developed, and what does it mean for the country's neighbours such as Japan? Joining Bronwen Maddox in the studio to answer these questions and more are Ben Bland the Director of Chatham House's Asia-Pacific programme and Dr Yu Jie a Senior Research Fellow with the Asia programme. Joining the panel this week from Washington DC is special guest Ankit Panda, the Stanton Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Editor-at-Large for The Diplomat magazine. Read our expertise: China's zero-COVID cannot continue, reopening is needed Indonesia shows the value of non-aligned leadership Weathering the storm: In conversation with David Miliband Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you get your podcasts. Please listen, rate, review and subscribe. Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by John Pollock. Sound by Abdul Boudiaf and Robin Gardner.

Darcie Draudt, Ankit Panda, and Ayumi Teraoka join the show to explore the complex economic and security dynamics between China and its neighbors in Northeast Asia, Japan, North Korea, and South Korea.

President Putin has demanded the West take his nuclear threats seriously and North Korea is rumored to preparing to undertake a nuclear test in the coming days. On Deep Dish, South Korean and Ukrainian citizens share what it is like to live under the looming shadow of possible nuclear warfare and Ankit Panda discusses whether the nuclear taboo is likely to be broken and how the world should respond. 

What does Putin's invasion means for a potential Chinese takeover of Taiwan? And how is conflict in Europe affecting the wider Asia region? As China throws their weight behind Russia over the war in Ukraine, Ankit Panda, fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, joins Arthur Snell to discuss the ”marriage of convenience” between Moscow and Beijing. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. You can support us on the crowdfunding app Patreon: doomsdaywatch.co.uk Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “China have determined that in this conflict their interests lie closer to Russia than the West.” “At the level of the Chinese Communist Party there is a calculation that China is all in behind Vladimir Putin.” “There are no regional conflicts in today's world when a country the size of Russia or China is involved.” “India directly condemning or sanctioning Russia was out of the question from the get-go.” “I don't think Russia and China are allies. This is a marriage of convenience, but there isn't a large amount of political trust there.”  DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Links1. "Laser incident near Australia paints China in a bad light," by Dr. Euan Graham, IISS, February 25, 2022.2. "US Department of Defense: Guam Laser Incident 'Unprofessional,' Violates 2014 Code," by Ankit Panda, The Diplomat, March 9, 2020.3. "US Navy: Chinese Destroyer Targeted P-8A Aircraft With Laser," by Franz-Stefan Gady, The Diplomat, February 29, 2020. 

This bonus episode is from our second Tipping Points event, The North Korean Missile Threat: Expert Roundtable. Dr. Victor Cha hosted an expert roundtable on North Korea's latest missile developments, including the current state of their ballistic missile force, and how they may have advanced their technologies so quickly. He was joined by Joe Bermudez of CSIS, Markus Garlauskas of the Atlantic Council, Ankit Panda of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Sue Mi Terry of the Wilson Center.

This is a conversation with Ankit Panda about nuclear proliferation and deterrence. Ankit Panda is the Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. An expert on the Asia-Pacific region, his research interests range from nuclear strategy, arms control, missile defense, nonproliferation, emerging technologies, and U.S. extended deterrence. We discuss: mutually assured destruction and mutual unacceptable damage - Kim Jong Un's foreign and domestic nuclear policies and capabilities. - The impact of Russian incursions into Ukraine on nuclear proliferation. - What the US, China, and Russia want from north Korea. - How Russian estrangement ties in with US geopolitical strategy. - New weapons like drones, hypersonics, and AI. - Chinas expansion in the Asia Pacific, US strategic insolvency, and peace ►Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/PqC8C-Tn8YM ►For more information about Ankit's work including his podcast appearances, journal articles, books, etc: https://www.ankitpanda.com/about-me/ ►Follow Ankit on Twitter: https://twitter.com/nktpnd Note: This episode was filmed just before the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. If you are interested in providing humanitarian support here is one option: https://unitedhelpukraine.org/ SOCIAL: ► Twitter: https://twitter.com/EscapedSapiens ► Website: https://www.escapedsapiens.com/ ► Support on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/EscapedSapiens 

Russian President Vladimir Putin put his nuclear deterrent forces on high alert late last week, raising the spectre of nuclear strikes globally. Matt Galloway talks with Ankit Panda, the Stanton Senior Fellow in the nuclear policy program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; and asks David Perry, president of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, whether Putin expected the resistance his forces have met in Ukraine.

North Korea has already launched more than six missile tests since the start of the new year. Why is North Korea is suddenly launching so many new missile tests -- and what can be done about?  Three experts weigh in: Jeffrey Lewis is a Professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterrey and an open source researcher at the James Martin Center for non proliferation studies Ankit Panda is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Michelle Kae is the Deputy Director of the 38 North Programam at the Stimson Center  

Korea24 – 2022.01.11. (Tuesday) News Briefing: North Korea fired off another suspected ballistic missile into the East Sea. South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said that it traveled at a speech of Mach 10 and appeared to be a ‘more advanced missile’ than the one Pyongyang tested last Wednesday. (Eunice Kim) In-Depth News Analysis: North Korea claimed to have successfully launched a “hypersonic” missile last week. South Korea has, however, expressed doubt over those claims, saying it appeared to be a slightly upgraded version of a ballistic missile. For further analysis on the missile and the implications of the latest launches, Ankit Panda, a Stanton Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace joins us on the line. Korea Trending with Jung Ye-won: 1. The Jeju District Court has sentenced 7 teenagers to up to 4 years in prison for attempting to blackmail men with underage prostitution. ("불쌍한 척하면 돼" 낄낄 댄 10대…판사는 "천만에" 징역형 줬다) 2. Shin Yu-bin, the rising table tennis star, has been ruled out of the 2022 Asian Games, after she missed the national team qualification match due to an injury. (제2의 신유빈 찾으려 바꾼 룰…신유빈이 막혔다) 3. US biopharmaceutical giants Pfizer and Moderna will be releasing a specific COVID-19 vaccine to combat the omicron variant this year. (3차 접종 필요없다? 화이자 3월에 오미크론 전용 백신 출시한다) Touch Base in Seoul: This week we meet Jinyoung Lee, a journalist in Hawaii telling the stories of the local Korean community through a documentary series, called ‘Words of Wisdom from the Rainbow State’. She joins us via video to tell us why she quit her job to pursue this project and what she learned along the way. Morning Edition Preview with Mark Wilson-Choi: - In tomorrow’s Korea Times, Jon Dunbar writes about “Collective Behavior”, a collaborative dance performance between South Korea and Denmark. - In tomorrow’s Korea Herald, Song Seung-hyun reports on the conspicuous absence of female leads in the top Korean films of 2021.

In this episode, Anthony is joined by Ankit Panda, award-winning writer and international security expert to review the growing tensions between Taiwan and China - and to discuss his book, ‘Kim Jong Un and the Bomb: Survival and Deterrence in North Korea,' which explores the history of North Korea's nuclear weapon development, its present power, and what this means for the U.S, South Korea and the world.Next, Carla Marinucci, senior writer for POLITICO's California Playbook joins Anthony to give us the latest from California - and why Washington-based media don't quite “get” the Golden State. Finally, Dave Spencer, founder of Practically Political, talks with Anthony about why it's crucial we invite conversation and respect differences of opinion if we're to put “policy before partisanship,' and delves into the current reinvention of the GOP. Follow our guests on Twitter:https://twitter.com/nktpnd https://twitter.com/cmarinucci https://twitter.com/pracpoli Follow us:https://twitter.com/moochfm  https://twitter.com/scaramucci  Sign up for our newsletter at:www.mooch.fm Created & produced by Podcast Partners:www.podcastpartners.com 

Last week, North Korea unveiled a variety of weapons during an exhibition which included their newest developed “hypersonic missile”, Hwasong-8. This recent exhibition was one of the biggest displays of North Korean weapons in the last couple of years, and the country's leader, KimJong-un, made it clear that he will continue to build up their military forces. It comes at a time when the United States is pushing for North Korea to return to nuclear disarmament talks, but so far the country has rejected starting any negotiations. This week, Ankit Panda joins Doug to unpack the state of North Korea's nuclear weapons program and what it means for U.S. policy toward North Korea.Ankit Panda, "North Korea's New 'Hypersonic Missile': Not A Game Changer Just Yet", 19FortyFiveAnkit Panda, "Why North Korea's New Cruise Missile Matters", Carnegie Endowment for International PeaceToby Dalton and Ankit Panda, "Lessons From the Iran Deal for Nuclear Negotiations With North Korea", Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

In this special "best of ChinaPower" episode, Mr. Ankit Panda discusses China's growing conventional missile arsenal and associated implications for military strategy and security in the Indo-Pacific region. He touches on the role of China’s ground-based missiles in the projection of military strength, noting that an increased arsenal can hamper US forces in the region and give the People’s Liberation Army increased maneuverability. Mr. Panda specifically highlights the importance of anti-ship ballistic missiles to China’s anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategy in areas like the South and East China Seas. He also discusses the consequences of the US withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty and the political obstacles to expanding the US’ arsenal along China’s periphery. In addition, he explains the strategic implications of China's dual-capable missile force, specifically the DF-26 missile’s ability to rapidly convert between nuclear and conventional warheads. Finally, Mr. Panda analyzes the role of hypersonic glide vehicles, noting that, while the underlying technology is not new, advances in materials science have allowed more countries to develop HGV systems. Ankit Panda is the Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. An expert on the Asia-Pacific region, his research interests range from nuclear strategy, arms control, missile defense, nonproliferation, emerging technologies, and US extended deterrence. He is the author of Kim Jong Un and the Bomb: Survival and Deterrence in North Korea. This episode was first released on December 8, 2020. Listeners can find Bonnie Glaser's new work with her China Global podcast. 

Guests:Christopher Lawrence is Assistant Professor of Science, Technology and International Affairs at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University.Ankit Panda is the Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is also editor-at-large at the Diplomat and a contributing editor at War on the Rocks.International Security Article:This podcast is based on Christopher Lawrence, “Normalization by Other Means—Technological Infrastructure and Political Commitment in the North Korean Nuclear Crisis,” International Security, Vol. 45, No. 1 (Summer 2020), pp. 9–50.Related Readings:“North Korean Nuclear Negotiations: 1985–2019,” Council on Foreign Relations.Kelsey Davenport, “The U.S.-North Korean Agreed Framework at a Glance,” Arms Control Association, July 2018.Kim Tong-Hyung, “Moon Urges Biden To Learn from Trump’s N. Korea Diplomacy,” Associated Press, January 18, 2021.Patricia M. Kim, “North Korea Conducted More Missile Tests. What Happens Next?” Monkey Cage blog, Washington Post, March 27, 2021.Christopher Lawrence, “‘Transactional’ Nuclear Diplomacy May Provide a Path toward ‘Grand Bargains’ with Iran and North Korea,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, April 29, 2021.Betsy Klein, “Biden Administration Completes North Korea Review Process, Will Pursue ‘Calibrated’ Diplomacy,” CNN, April 30, 2021.Ankit Panda, “What Biden Should Know about North Korea’s New Nuclear Plans,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, January 15, 2021.Originally released on May 6, 2021.

Kim Jong Un and the Bomb by Ankit Panda is the extraordinary story of how a small, poor country became a nuclear power—and why we will have to live with it. Listen to Ankit in conversation with Tom Plant, director of proliferation and nuclear policy at RUSI, about the history of nuclear weapons in North Korea, why the programme is so important to Kim Jong Un, and what a nuclear armed North Korea means for the world.

America's relationship with China will set the tone for much of the world in the coming years, a relationship now in the hands of President Joe Biden. The Crisis Next Door host Jason Brooks talks about those challenges with Ankit Panda,  A Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Author of ‘KIM JONG UN AND THE BOMB'  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AfterWords returns on 27th January 2021. In this series, listen to Hurst authors and leading experts discuss the stories behind six recent, highly acclaimed books that are starting conversations everywhere. Investigate corruption in America with Sarah Chayes, discover North-East England and its people with Dan Jackson, and learn how North Korea became a nuclear power and why we’ll have to live with it from Ankit Panda. Hear the untold story of African Europeans by Olivette Otele, explore the growing rivalry between America and China with Nigel Inkster and find out about reform and repression in MBS’ Saudi Arabia from Madawi Al-Rasheed.

Following a year-long border closure and the reveal of a new ICBM, the NK News team takes a look at what the Eighth Party Congress means for North Korea’s future. This podcast episode features NK Pro analysts Andrei Lankov and Ankit Panda, as well as Korea Risk Group CEO Chad O’Carroll, NK News Correspondent Jeongmin Kim and […]

In this episode, Mr. Ankit Panda joins us to discuss China's growing conventional missile arsenal and associated implications for military strategy and security in the Indo-Pacific region. He highlights the role of China’s ground-based missiles in the projection of military strength, noting that an increased arsenal can hamper U.S. forces in the region and give the People’s Liberation Army increased maneuverability. China’s missile arsenal is an important factor in its anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategy, Mr. Panda argues, examining the role and efficacy of anti-ship ballistic missiles in projecting force areas surrounding the South and East China Seas. Mr. Panda talks about the consequences of the U.S. withdrawal from the INF treaty and the political obstacles to an increased U.S. arsenal around China’s periphery. Mr. Panda talks about the consequences of the U.S. withdrawal from the INF treaty and the political obstacles to an increased U.S. arsenal around China’s periphery. In addition, he explains the strategic implications of China's dual-capable missle force, and specifically the DF-26 missile’s ability to rapidly convert between nuclear and conventional warheads. Finally, Mr. Panda analyzes the hypersonic glide vehicle, noting that, while the underlying technology is not new, advances in materials science have allowed more countries to develop HGV systems.    Ankit Panda is the Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. An expert on the Asia-Pacific region, his research interests range from nuclear strategy, arms control, missile defense, nonproliferation, emerging technologies, and U.S. extended deterrence. He is the author of Kim Jong Un and the Bomb: Survival and Deterrence in North Korea.

This newsletter is really a public policy thought-letter. While excellent newsletters on specific themes within public policy already exist, this thought-letter is about frameworks, mental models, and key ideas that will hopefully help you think about any public policy problem in imaginative ways. It seeks to answer just one question: how do I think about a particular public policy problem/solution?Welcome to the mid-week edition in which we write essays on a public policy theme. The usual public policy review comes out on weekends.PS: If you enjoy listening instead of reading, we have this edition available as an audio narration on all podcasting platforms courtesy the good folks at Ad-Auris. If you have any feedback, please send it to us.- RSJIf you haven’t been living under a rock, you would have come across this Andy Mukherjee column in Bloomberg over the last weekend. Titled ‘Why I’m Losing Hope In India’, it is a searing and despairing piece on how India is losing its window of opportunity for growth and prosperity. By Mukherjee’s own high standards of writing op-eds, it is a tour de force. Predictably, the reactions to it have swung between extremes. There are those for whom Mukherjee has voiced, in limpid prose, their anxieties and disappointments with how things are turning out in India. For others, this is another elite, wringing his hands and pandering to his own discredited lot, as a new and different India takes shape. The few belonging to neither camps have praised the piece for raising pertinent issues but have taken exception to the deep pessimism pervading it. Now, there are occasions when we too receive mails berating us for our pessimism about India. It is a criticism we fail to comprehend. You can contest the interpretation of facts or the logic underlying an argument. That’s understandable. It is difficult to argue on why someone shouldn’t feel a certain way. Also, like we have mentioned it a few times, the reason we write this newsletter is because of our optimism about the people of India. That by putting out our point of view regularly, we will have a public that will demand better policies from its representatives. We like to think Mukherjee feels the same way. There is no reason to question his pessimism so long as his arguments support it. So, do his arguments merit his pessimism? Or is he projecting his biases and adding to the constant drumbeat of gloom that’s the par for the course among analysts living abroad who cover India? Anantha Nageswaran in his blog – Why it may be the wrong time to give up hope on India? – has a factual riposte to many points that Mukherjee makes. He goes overboard a bit in defending the indefensible like demonetisation, handling of migrant issues during lockdown (quoting Bibek Debroy on some 1979 statute to absolve the Union government) and some unconvincing GDP comparisons with China by scaling them to non-financial sector debt. But these aside, he makes a good case for remaining hopeful about India. If you keep an open mind about these things, it is an interesting perspective on how many within this government might be looking at our economy in these times.I have three problems with Mukherjee’s columns where his love for rhetorical flourish or a lack of economic understanding comes in the way of a reasoned argument.Mukherjee believes there’s a structural demand deficiency in India and the consumption led boom that sustained our economy has plateaued. For some reasons he believes all the recent reforms in farm or labour sector or the work that he praises this government for in areas like affordable health, formalisation of finances, providing for cooking gas, sanitation, and clean water, will only debottleneck the supply side. Not much will turn on the demand side. I don’t understand why he thinks so. It is true this government’s economic response to the pandemic has been largely supply-side focused. But that’s different from the demand generation potential of many of these ideas. You could argue with the economic merits of PLI (production linked incentives) or the atmanirbhar policies but in the short run it will boost employment and demand. The investment in public infrastructure in pre-covid era like on building national highway network or the work done under PM Grameen Sadak Yojana is good for solving structural demand issues. Like we have argued in the last edition, it is early days, but the speed at which demand has bounced back in many sectors after lockdown was lifted has surprised all of us. This isn’t a sign of structural demand deficiency.There have been many other columns of Mukherjee where he points to the problem of India’s stressed financial systems. This is widely understood as a problem. He mentions this here too. But what’s the solution? Is it a stringent bankruptcy code like that was put in place in February 2018? We have argued here that the IBC is a good reform that needs some runway before it can be made more stringent. Trying to be too harsh about insolvency guidelines will likely lead to that familiar policy issue in India – operation successful, patient dead. Besides, the root cause of many of these NPAs are in discretionary power of the state, the difficulty in getting projects off the ground in India and consistency in policy making. None of this is a financial sector reform. A lot of this precedes this government. My limited point here always has been to cheer every minor reform in these areas without being overly critical of it. It takes a lot to get reforms going in India. It is one of the reasons the farm bills need to be supported. Mukherjee also, surprisingly, goes for some convenient north-south divide narrative. The south, in his opinion, is better governed, faster growing and has therefore remained immune to the strongman charisma of the PM. The north, on the other hand, appears a bit of a basket case in the column. To quote Mukherjee:“Sadly, I don’t see northern India’s economic pessimism — or its caste enmities, religious hatred and deep-seated misogyny — making way for a less toxic, more aspirational politics.”Firstly, these have been features of north Indian politics for ages, aided and abetted by every large political party in these states. It isn’t a BJP created political environment. Secondly, you can argue the north isn’t as progressive on many metrics as the states of the south. But they aren’t regressing. On almost every parameter, social or economic, the northern states have continued to make progress. Of course, much needs to be done. But to ‘blame’ northern states to have been taken in by the PM and his brand of “chest-thumping nationalism and an atavistic yearning for a pre-Islamic past” isn’t exactly the most constructive way of taking this debate further. These points aside, there’s a lot there in the Mukherjee article for us to reflect upon and debate with those who think all’s well with us. It isn’t whether we should be losing hope in India. The real question is what we can do to keep our hope about India alive. There are no full stops in history. Every phase, however interminable it might seem then, is transient in the long run. Public policy advocacy, like we never tire of repeating, is a marathon. We run on hope. HomeWorkReading and listening recommendations on public policy matters[Podcast] The Diplomat’s Asia Geopolitics podcast host Ankit Panda (@nktpnd) speaks to Abhijnan Rej, The Diplomat’s security and defense editor, about how a Biden administration in the United States is likely to approach South Asia.[Article] Business Standard on India’s lost decade Get on the email list at publicpolicy.substack.com

North Korea shocked the world in September 2017 by exploding the most powerful nuclear device tested anywhere in 25 years. Months earlier, it had conducted the first test flight of a missile capable of ranging much of the United States. Soon after, Kim Jong Un, the reclusive state’s ruler, declared that his nuclear deterrent was complete. World leaders, intelligence officials and many ordinary people around the world shuddered at the thought of a fully nuclear-armed North Korea.But how did this brutal nation build such a sophisticated nuclear programme? If the international community had taken non proliferation more seriously after the Cold War could things have turned out differently? And what should be our end game with the North Koreans? Should we be seeking an Iran style nuclear deal or would that be a fatal error of judgment?In September 2020 we were joined by Ankit Panda, renowned security expert and author of 'Kim Jong Un and The Bomb', who spoke to Dr Patricia Lewis, former Director of the UN Institute for Disarmament Research and head of international security at Chatham House, about how this small nation became a nuclear power—and how we can learn to live with it. The event was chaired by Edward Lucas. To find out more about Ankit Panda's book click here: https://amzn.to/3noOBcP Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/intelligencesquared. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

September 16, 2020 - Join us for a discussion on challenges and opportunities for continued nuclear negotiations with North Korea, featuring Markus Garlauskas, former U.S. National Intelligence Officer for North Korea, Soo Kim, RAND, and Ankit Panda, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. What are the chances that North Korea denuclearizes and what can the U.S. and South Korea do to increase those chances? Should an interim deal with snapback measures be considered good progress, or should a comprehensive deal be pursued? For more information, please visit the link beow: https://www.koreasociety.org/policy-and-corporate-programs/item/1422-prospects-for-diplomacy-with-north-korea

In this hustle episode of the pod, Van Jackson sits down with Ankit Panda to talk about writing productivity hacks, how to become a foreign policy pundit, and tips for straddling new media and the think tank world.  They also talk about Ankit's new book, Kim Jong Un and the Bomb. Ankit's book: https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/kim-jong-un-and-the-bomb/

Another day, another suspected nuclear facility in North Korea. Anne and Jeffrey discuss the Wollo-ri Suspected Nuclear Warhead Manufacturing Facility.  They discuss how the CNS team has monitored this site since 2015, the satellite imagery analysis that went into it, and Ankit Panda's impressive sourcing. They also discuss the immediate pushback, claims that this site is a training facility, and the open-source methods used to evaluate this site.  Arms Control Wonk post on the Wollo-Ri Facility, by Catherine Dill, David Laboon, Jeffrey Lewis, and Dave Schmerler: https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1209644/wollo-ri-nuclear-facility/ CNN reporting on the Wollo-Ri analysis: https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/08/politics/north-korea-nuclear-facility-wollo-ri-satellite-images/index.html Daily NK report claiming Wollo-Ri is not a nuclear facility: https://www.dailynk.com/english/source-nuclear-pyongyang-just-school/   Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Indian and Chinese soldiers are staring each other down at a crucial pass in the Himalayas. Its not the first time the rivals have been at the precipice of war and the world is on edge with this latest move.      The Crisis Next Door host Jason Brooks drills into the standoff with Ankit Panda, an award-winning American writer, analyst, and researcher specializing in international security, defernse, geopolitics and economics. He's currently a senior editor at The Diplomat, and is author of Kim Jong Un And The Bomb, scheduled to be published this summer. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

At the end of March, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that India had successfully shot down one of its own satellites with an anti-satellite weapon. We spoke with Ankit Panda to break down the test and what it means for broader security issues in South Asia. Music: www.bensound.com

March 28, 2019 - Adam Mount, Mira Rapp-Hooper and Ankit Panda discuss the results of a consensus effort of fifteen experts from the US, ROK, Japan, Canada, and UK to develop a strategy toward a North Korea that maintains nukes. They warn that without a major shift in strategy, a nuclear-armed North Korea will expand its ability to aggress against its neighbors, conduct illicit activities around the world, and resist efforts to improve the welfare of its population. For more information, please visit the link below: https://www.koreasociety.org/policy-and-corporate-programs/item/1239-federation-of-american-scientists-international-study-group-on-north-korea-policy-briefing

Test a missile, get a pod. Kill a satellite? Get a podcast with a special guest. Ankit Panda joins Aaron and Jeffrey to discuss India's recent anti-satellite test. Also, Jeffrey says he told you so. (Again.) Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

The long-simmering feud between nuclear powers India and Pakistan is boiling over. Ankit Panda from The Diplomat explains why. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Pakistan and India are facing their worst conflict in almost half a century. On Wednesday, an Indian military jet was shot down over disputed Kashmir territory and an Indian fighter pilot was captured by Pakistani forces. This follows India’s “pre-emptive strike” on a terrorist training camp in Pakistan on Tuesday, in response to a suicide attack on Indian police earlier this month. Both sides are escalating tensions, where will this go? We speak to geopolitical analyst Ankit Panda for some insight.

As negotiations between the United States and North Korea continue to stall, it becomes increasingly clear that both sides have widely differing views of what denuclearization of the Korean peninsula means and how exactly to execute the agreements made in Singapore this year. Determining the size, number, and power of nuclear and conventional weapons in North Korea is a crucial consideration that affects how negotiations will move forward, and there are few who have been watching this space more closely than Ankit Panda. Ankit Panda is Senior Editor at the Diplomat, an adjunct senior fellow at the Federation of American Scientists, and a columnist for the South China Morning Post. He is also an occasional contributor to NK News's sister publication NK Pro. About the podcast: The “North Korea News Podcast” is a weekly podcast hosted exclusively by NK News, covering all things DPRK: from news to extended interview with leading experts and analysts in the field and insight from our very own journalists. Also, the NK Shop is back in business! We have DPRK-inspired limited edition t-shirts, vintage posters and a 2019 calendar just in time for the holidays. As a thank you for your continued support, we'd like to offer listeners a special discount: just use code nkpodcast10 at checkout for an instant 10% off your total purchase. Check out the shop here: https://www.nkshop.org/

India has some nuclear naval news, with its defense minister claiming a successful "first deterrent patrol." What does this mean for Pakistan and nuclear dynamics in the Indian Ocean?   Aaron sits down with friends of the pod Ankit Panda and Vipin Narang to talk about the India-Pakistan relationship, India's ballistic missile subs, and Pakistan's cruise missile subs.    This episode started as a Brilliant Pebble and ballooned into a full-blown episode!   Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

October 11, 2018 - The Diplomat’s Ankit Panda discusses North Korea nuclear weapons, intercontinental ballistic missiles, and diplomatic pathways aimed at mitigating these threats. Panda, also an Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Federation of American Scientists, joins Associate Director Jonathan Corrado in this Young Asia Policy Professionals event, which is open to the public. For more information, please visit the link below: https://www.koreasociety.org/policy-and-corporate-programs/item/1201-nukes-missiles-and-ways-to-talk

KANGSON.  We have the (probable) location of North Korea's original enrichment site: Kangson, now called Chollima. This is probably the spot where the DPRK has been enriching uranium since the early 2000's, which has previously not been openly identified!  Jeffrey, Grace Liu, and Dave Schmerler combed over information dropped by friend-of-the-pod Ankit Panda. Jeffrey, Aaron, and Scott talk about this old, newly discovered site, the history of North Korean enrichment tracking, and the difficulty in tracking major proliferation concerns. Links of Note: Ankit's bombshell article in The Diplomat about Kangson. Geo4NonPro, The CNS/MIIS crowd-sourced satellite imagery analysis project. Jeffrey's new novel, The 2020 Commission Report on the North Korean Nuclear Attacks Against the United States. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Ankit Panda, Senior Editor at The Diplomat reviews the 'Indo-Pacific', the 'Quad' and Indo-U.S. relations with Saurabh Joshi at the Shangri-La Dialogue 2018.

Guest: Ankit Panda. Topic: Dr. William Parker, COO of the EastWest Institute, and Ankit Panda dispel myths, assess missile defense capability and explore potential outcomes. Panda is an award-winning New York City-based writer, editor, and international affairs analyst covering defense, security, economics, and politics with a primary focus on the wider Asia-Pacific region. He is also a senior editor at the Diplomat.

This week, Bombshell bids farewell to summer with our final distributed ops episode, closing out what has been a nice, quiet August (ha. ha). Afghanistan is, as usual, still a thing, but this time President Trump - or his teleprompter - actually gave us some thoughts on the matter. We lament waking up to a nuclear test in North Korea and the latest chapters in the Kenyan election and China-India border disputes, and drill down on how everything became about readiness and readiness became about everything: the Seventh Fleet, the Army, DACA, you name it. Finally, we give our take on John Kelly's efforts at discipline in the West Wing and the continuing parade of White House departures, as well as views on Back to School reading and "book dates" with your partner. Readings: "Why India did not Win the Standoff with China," M. Taylor Fravel, War on the Rocks "Welcome to the H-Bomb Club, North Korea," Ankit Panda and Vipin Narang, War on the Rocks "Xi says BRICS nations should stand up against protectionism," Lousie Watt, AP "Deadly Navy accidents in the Pacific raise questions over a force stretched too thin," Alex Horton and Thomas Gibbons-Neff, Washington Post "How the U.S. Navy's Fleet has been on a collision course for years," by David Larter, Defense News "U.S. Army Unprepared to Deal with Russia in Europe," Wesley Morgan, Politico "Analysis: Could Trump’s Transgender Military Ban Actually Become Policy?" Julie Moreau, NBC News Back to School Reading: A Life in Secrets: Vera Atkins and the Missing Agents of WWII, by Sarah Helm The Wise Men: Six Friends and the World They Made, by Walter Isaacson The Federalist Papers The Undoing Project, Michael Lewis A Gentleman in Moscow, Amor Towles In Light of What we Know, Zia Haider Rahman The Storm Before the Storm: The Beginning of the End of the Roman Republic, Mike Duncan The Most Famous Man in America: The Biography of Henry Ward Beecher, Debby Applegate The Alice Network, Kate Quinn

This week, Bombshell bids farewell to summer with our final distributed ops episode, closing out what has been a nice, quiet August (ha. ha). Afghanistan is, as usual, still a thing, but this time President Trump - or his teleprompter - actually gave us some thoughts on the matter. We lament waking up to a nuclear test in North Korea and the latest chapters in the Kenyan election and China-India border disputes, and drill down on how everything became about readiness and readiness became about everything: the Seventh Fleet, the Army, DACA, you name it. Finally, we give our take on John Kelly's efforts at discipline in the West Wing and the continuing parade of White House departures, as well as views on Back to School reading and "book dates" with your partner. Readings: "Why India did not Win the Standoff with China," M. Taylor Fravel, War on the Rocks "Welcome to the H-Bomb Club, North Korea," Ankit Panda and Vipin Narang, War on the Rocks "Xi says BRICS nations should stand up against protectionism," Lousie Watt, AP "Deadly Navy accidents in the Pacific raise questions over a force stretched too thin," Alex Horton and Thomas Gibbons-Neff, Washington Post "How the U.S. Navy's Fleet has been on a collision course for years," by David Larter, Defense News "U.S. Army Unprepared to Deal with Russia in Europe," Wesley Morgan, Politico "Analysis: Could Trump’s Transgender Military Ban Actually Become Policy?" Julie Moreau, NBC News Back to School Reading: A Life in Secrets: Vera Atkins and the Missing Agents of WWII, by Sarah Helm The Wise Men: Six Friends and the World They Made, by Walter Isaacson The Federalist Papers The Undoing Project, Michael Lewis A Gentleman in Moscow, Amor Towles In Light of What we Know, Zia Haider Rahman The Storm Before the Storm: The Beginning of the End of the Roman Republic, Mike Duncan The Most Famous Man in America: The Biography of Henry Ward Beecher, Debby Applegate The Alice Network, Kate Quinn

Special guest Amy Shafer joins us for the full show and highlights her fabulous research on the civil-military divide in America (and dishes on the Air Force Tops in Blue). Then we celebrate the liberation of Mosul, walk through the North Korean missile test, and wonder what exactly happened at the G20 meetings. Also on the table: Whither our Afghan strategy? And Erin gets giddy over space marines. Stick around for our “Game of Thrones” preview!* *By which we mean fan-girl shouts of joy and anticipation. Reading: Generations of War, Amy Shafer, CNAS “The ISIS Killers,” Mike Giglio, Buzzfeed  “Mosul: What the Decade's Largest Battle Says About the Future of War,” Defense One Staff, Defense One  “These Mindblowing Photos Reveal the Horror of the Islamic State War,” Liz Sly, The Washington Post  “ISIS: A catastrophe for Sunnis,” Liz Sly, The Washington Post “Inside the Collapse of the Iraqi Army’s 2nd Division,” Yasir Abbas and Dan Trombly, War on the Rocks “Scared About North Korea? You Aren't Scared Enough,” Toby Harshaw, Bloomberg  “North Korea’s ICBM: A New Missile and a New Era,” Ankit Panda and Vipin Narang, War on the Rocks “Looking For Details On Syria Ceasefire? Don’t Ask US Military,” Nancy Youssef, Buzzfeed  “A proposed new military branch would send US troops to guard the galaxy,” CNN “My Top Ten Favorite Space Marines,” A Space Blog Odyssey

Special guest Amy Shafer joins us for the full show and highlights her fabulous research on the civil-military divide in America (and dishes on the Air Force Tops in Blue). Then we celebrate the liberation of Mosul, walk through the North Korean missile test, and wonder what exactly happened at the G20 meetings. Also on the table: Whither our Afghan strategy? And Erin gets giddy over space marines. Stick around for our “Game of Thrones” preview!* *By which we mean fan-girl shouts of joy and anticipation. Reading: Generations of War, Amy Shafer, CNAS “The ISIS Killers,” Mike Giglio, Buzzfeed  “Mosul: What the Decade's Largest Battle Says About the Future of War,” Defense One Staff, Defense One  “These Mindblowing Photos Reveal the Horror of the Islamic State War,” Liz Sly, The Washington Post  “ISIS: A catastrophe for Sunnis,” Liz Sly, The Washington Post “Inside the Collapse of the Iraqi Army’s 2nd Division,” Yasir Abbas and Dan Trombly, War on the Rocks “Scared About North Korea? You Aren't Scared Enough,” Toby Harshaw, Bloomberg  “North Korea’s ICBM: A New Missile and a New Era,” Ankit Panda and Vipin Narang, War on the Rocks “Looking For Details On Syria Ceasefire? Don’t Ask US Military,” Nancy Youssef, Buzzfeed  “A proposed new military branch would send US troops to guard the galaxy,” CNN “My Top Ten Favorite Space Marines,” A Space Blog Odyssey

North Korea's nuclear program is racing forward. The regime tested a Pukguksong-2 missile on Sunday and leader Kim Jong-Un made a big show of ordering the missiles into mass production. Ankit Panda, host of the podcast The Diplomat, joins Lindsay Beyerstein to talk about North Korea's nuclear strategy. Mainstream media pundits often portray Korean leadership as erratic and irrational, but Kim's nuclear strategy is anything but haphazard, Panda says. What kind of nuclear conflict is North Korea envisioning? What can their arsenal already do? The Trump administration has promised a new approach to North Korea, but officials have struggled to articulate what that means. Is the era of “Strategic Patience” really over? Recommended reading: With DHS Position, Clarke Would Be the First ‘Patriot' Leader to Hold a Federal Post, by David Neiwert for The Southern Poverty Law Center, 2017 A David Clarke dossier, by Radley Balko for the Washington Post, 2017