Ask a Decision Engineer

For more resources on decision making, or to ask Michelle a question, head over to AskADecisionEngineer.com

For more resources on decision making, or to ask Michelle a question, head over to AskADecisionEngineer.com

For more resources on decision making, or to ask Michelle a question, head over to AskADecisionEngineer.com

For more resources on decision making, or to ask Michelle a question, head over to AskADecisionEngineer.com

For more resources on decision making, or to ask Michelle a question, head over to AskADecisionEngineer.com

For more resources on decision making, or to ask Michelle a question, head over to AskADecisionEngineer.com

After launching my first pilot season in 2019 right before my baby was born, I'm back at it with new episodes.

Hear decision engineer Michelle Florendo talk about what's wrong with decision making today and what you can do about it.

Decisions are actions you take to influence the future.Decisions are not:- just about picking, they are also about process- about what is outside of your control, they are about where you have agency- about the past, they are forward looking- one and done, they occur over time, in sequence

In this episode Michelle shares what's at the root of decision paralysis and offers up tips on how to save time and energy in the decision making process Resources mentioned in this episode:Srinivas Rao's Unmistakable Creative TribeThinking Fast and Slow by Daniel KahnemanThe Paradox of Choice by Barry SchwartzCatching the Next Wave PodcastSummary:- The quality of a decision is separate and distinct from the quality of the outcome- You have two different systems for decision making: System 1 (fast) and System 2 (slow); reserve System 2 for decisions that really warrant it- You have a finite reservoir of energy for System 2. Decision fatigue occurs when you exhaust it.- Even though you've been socialized to want to maximize every decision, the incremental ROI (return on investment) of time and energy isn't always worth it.- Identify which decisions deserve to be processed with System 1, then for others, decide in advance, use rule-based heuristics, or delegate decision making

There's a ton that Michelle would love to share about how to make decisions with less stress and more clarity. Yet, if she could only share one tip, it'd be this.

In this "Ask Me Anything" Episode, Michelle responds to a question from a listener about how organizations should approach decision making in the wake of renewed visibility of structural racism.

Every decision starts with what you want in the end. Listen to Michelle explain what objectives are, why they are important, and how you can use objectives to improve your decision making.

In this Ask Me Anything episode, Michelle answers the question "How do I distinguish what I want from what others want?"

Making a decision is just choosing among options, right? There's more to it than that. Michelle dives into the options piece of decision making: why that piece is important, what mistakes people typically make, and what you can do about it.

Information. It's the third component of any decision, and the trickiest one to deal with. Learn more about why this piece causes so much stress, what common mistakes people make in this area, and what questions you can ask yourself to improve this area of your decision making.

When facing big decisions, even the smartest people can get tied into knots. But it doesn't have to be that way. Hi, I'm Michelle Florendo. I studied decision engineering at Stanford and over the past 15 years, I've helped hundreds of people navigate complex decisions in their professional and personal lives. In season three of my podcast, Ask a Decision Engineer, we'll be tackling ALL THE FEELS. You know, when you wish you could just make a rational decision, but can't.     The truth is, if you want to feel confident in your decision, don't ignore your emotions. Examine them.This season, I'll teach you about the types of emotions that may arise in decision-making, what to do about them, and how to use them as data so that you can move forward with less stress and more clarity.New episodes drop in mid may. Subscribe now wherever you get your podcasts.

We need to stop thinking that the best decisions are ones made in an emotional vacuum. There's a cost to ignoring how we feel. At best we leave useful data on the table. But at worst, - we waste time beholden to emotions that do have a powerful hold over us- we make decisions that deliver on the opposite of what we actually want- we exhaust ourselves by only using a portion of the brainpower that we could possibly be using.The more we can get curious about what is the feeling that's coming up and what is it telling us about our process, the more useful it can become in moving forward with a good decision.If you have feelings come up, take a step back, not to ignore, but to observe. Take an engineering lens and try to get at what is the data, ask yourself: How can I learn more about these inputs for the decision problem I'm trying to solve? Where's that coming from? Why is this feeling coming up? Is it because there's a particular objective or value that is not being acknowledged? Is it because I feel constrained in my options? Do I have a sense of knowing my intuition and summary of past experiences? Is this a feeling stemming from a discomfort with not knowing? Perhaps it's simply the discomfort of not having reached a resolution yet.

If you have already decided what course of action to take, but are having a hard time actually acting on it, explore:what emotions are arising as you think about taking action?where are those emotions coming from?if one of those emotions is fear or dread, what is on the other side of that?if what you fear were to come to fruition, what will you decide to do then?how might you keep the positive benefits of the course of action you chose top of mind?

Today's episode touches on a number of different feelings: the excitement of a new path and the doubts around whether it will pan out the questioning around how much our desires are a result of the culture we've been surrounded by, or if deep down inside, we actually want something else. When we feel like we are swimming in an ocean of thoughts and feelings, it can be extremely useful to get those thoughts down on paper in a structured way. Consider doing a brain dump and categorizing things into the three components, objectives, options, and informationIf you are having a hard time articulating what you want, imagine how you want to feel in the futureA decision matrix can be a useful tool to organize what comes to mind with those three componentsPerhaps try to map out different options and scenarios onto a decision tree so that you can make sure you are exploring all branches, fairlyStructure can help you make better sense of all the inputs you have so that you can see things more clearly.

Key topics we cover in this episode:03:47 - What to do when your intellect says one thing and your intuition says another07:21 - Breaking big decisions into smaller microdecisions07:57 - Unpacking feelings about money and deciding to invest in one's business14:05 - What's keeping her awake at night17:17 - Clarifying her objectives19:12 - What it means when there is an option you're not willing to entertain20:40 - What to do about information gaps28:03 - Determining the value of information29:29 - How to deal with the desire to just make a decision alreadyThere are three key things that I hope you take away from this episode. If you find yourself torn between your intellect and your intuition, bring your intuition and feelings into the light. In other words, leaned in and determine what data your intuition and feelings can provide to your intellect so that you can get all parts of you on the same page.If you find that there's a particular objective that triggers an emotional reaction that may overshadow your rational thinking such as feelings about money. Set that objective aside to look at the decision with a clear lens and then bring it back into consideration later.If you have information gaps examine, ask yourself what is the value of gathering additional information and whether it is actually worth making that investment. If it is worth it to make that investment, explore how you can get comfortable with the tension that you'll experience until you're able to resolve some of those unknown.Your head and your heart need not battle it out. When you make space to bring both types of thinking into the picture, you'll leave with a much clearer picture of how to move forward.

How do you figure out what to do after you graduate from college? In this episode, I show a college student how to clarify what she wants, reduce the stress of finding the perfect job, and avoid getting overwhelmed by uncertainties.Key topics we cover:2:27 - How to reframe "I don't know what I want"5:58 - How to use the "Happiness Pyramid" to clarify what you want8:48 - What to do with advice that tells you to follow your passion13:50 - Why feelings can be super useful in the process of clarifying what you want14:40 - How to shift your thinking so that it's easier to recognize the options you have16:24 - How to think about options18:33 - How you should approach generating new options if things don't work out21:05 - Why it's critical to learn how to deal with uncertainty25:26 - How to design exercises that make the job search less overwhelming 

Sometimes there are decisions that are so overwhelming and emotionally draining that what we decide to do to stay mentally and emotionally fit enough to make the decision is as important as the decision process itself. In today's episode, you'll hear from a guest client facing a difficult decision regarding care for her aging mother with a mental health condition. Learn strategies for working through tough decisions involving others.Key topics we cover:1:58 - What's key to consider in emotionally difficult decisions2:30 - Constraints in decision making8:31 - How Covey's Circle of Influence is a tool that can be used to identify where to focus your efforts15:11 - The importance of identifying where you have control and where you don't have as much17:22 - Divergent vs Convergent thinking in exploring options22:05 - How constraints can sometimes be helpful26:04 - How to deal with feelings that seem like an obstacle29:45 - The importance of identifying what it will take to resource yourselfResources if you are impacted by mental illness:NAMI.org - National Alliance on Mental IllnessNational Suicide Prevention Lifeline - 1 (800) 273-8255

In this Ask Me Anything (AMA) episode, I answer a question from a listener about how to approach decisions so that she can move past overwhelm and feel more confident in her decision making. Listen in as I discuss four key steps for her to tackle decisions with more ease.Key topics covered in this episode:1:23 - Process orientation vs. outcome orientation2:32 - Improving confidence by discarding unrealistic bars for decision quality5:32 - Knowing where to focus by using the Covey's Circles tool8:39 - Breaking decisions down into bite-sized pieces using the 3 Components framework10:41 - Key questions to ask to drive toward clarity in each component17:44 - Other ways you can use the 3 Components framework19:19 - The critical last step in any decision making process

In this Ask Me Anything (AMA) episode, I answer a question from a listener about how to tell whether the decisions he has made were the best ones. Listen in as I discuss how to reduce doubt after making a decision.Key topics covered in this episode:1:55 - what this listener is really asking4:02 - the short answer to the question5:23 - what would be more helpful when facing this question6:13 - the feeling that prompts this question and why you feel it7:58 - the surprising truth about wanting to maximize your outcomes9:25 - the first step in feeling better about your decisions10:23 - the power of choosing contentment over conditioning11:33 - how to get clear with your objectives12:47 - the importance of committing to staying present

When facing big decisions, even the smartest people can get tied into knots. But it doesn't have to be that way.Hi, I'm Michelle Florendo.I studied decision engineering at Stanford and over the past 15 years, I've helped hundreds of people navigate complex decisions in their professional and personal lives.In season four of my podcast, Ask A Decision Engineer, I'll be interviewing guests on the show who will share insights, strategies, and tools to help you work through your decision-making challenges.You'll hear from authors, professors and practitioners spanning the fields of decision science, psychology, organizational behavior, and human centered design.New episodes drop in June. Subscribe now, wherever you get your podcasts.

In this fourth season of the podcast, I'm bringing folks on the show who have influenced my work on decision-making. And who better to start with than Seth Godin, without whom this podcast would not exist.Seth is an entrepreneur, an author of multiple New York Times bestselling books, writer of one of the most popular blogs in the world and a dear teacher of mine when it comes to dancing with the emotions that come up in decision-making. Today, we talk about making decisions with intent, the difference between intent and purpose, why fear is not a bad thing, and how to dance with fear when making decisions.Topics covered02:20 Why is learning to make good decisions important?03:39 Mindful decision making: intent vs instinct04:56 The useful practice of meta-cognition06:04 The difference between purpose and intent07:51 Being on the hook is the best place to be08:24 How to grapple with the fear of being on the hook09:59 Staring down fear is a good signal13:46 What's the payoff of dancing with fear?16:01 Quality of decisions is distinct from quality of the outcome16:36 How to dance with the fear of regret16:36 Dancing with the fear of what others may think21:52 Decision making as a posture24:01 The freedom that comes with understanding sunk costsGuest BioSeth is an author, entrepreneur, and most of all, a teacher.. In addition to launching one of the most popular blogs in the world, he has written 20 best-selling books, including The Dip, Linchpin, Purple Cow, Tribes, and What To Do When It's Your Turn (And It's Always Your Turn). His book, This is Marketing, was an instant bestseller in countries around the world. The latest book is The Practice, and creatives everywhere have made it a bestseller. Though renowned for his writing and speaking, Seth also founded two companies, Squidoo and Yoyodyne (acquired by Yahoo!). By focusing on everything from effective marketing and leadership, to the spread of ideas and changing everything, Seth has been able to motivate and inspire countless people around the world.ResourcesThe altMBAAkimbo, home of The Podcasting Workshop and othersAnnie Duke's book, Thinking in BetsTo learn more from Michelle about decision making, check outThe Ask A Decision Engineer websiteHer Stanford Continuing Studies course (now enrolling, class starts July 14)Her Personal Decision Toolkit course on MavenHer Decision Toolkit course for coaches and thought partners on Maven

Decisions about what you want to do next in life feel big- they can literally change your life. That's why so many people feel stuck in the process. Today I'm speaking with my friend, Kathy Davies, the Managing Director of the Life Design Lab at Stanford University. She is also the co-founder of Designing Your Life for Women and a Master Trainer of the Designing Your Life process. In today's episode, Kathy provides an overview of what it looks like to apply design thinking to life decisions, talks about the value of sitting with emotions and feelings, explains why community helps us get unstuck, and invites employers to help co-create new options that work for both companies and employees. Topics Covered03:23 What is life design?05:05 The human centered design thinking process05:36 Empathy05:43 Define06:27 Ideate07:33 Prototype08:42 Prototyping as a mindset shift9:30 Start small10:54 Prototyping careers through conversation12:26 Test: incorporate your learnings14:08 The importance of recognizing when it's time to engage in the process, and when it may not be time16:12 The value of recognizing what we need18:10 The value of sitting with emotions and feelings19:48 We are all in process, especially at the time of transition21:10 It helps to do this in community22:39 The feelings that keep people stuck25:29 The opportunity companies have in co-creating options that work30:38 Four-step process for getting started with life design35:38 The key mindset shiftGuest BioKathy Davies is the Managing Director of the Life Design Lab at Stanford University, where she teaches Product Design, Mechanical Engineering, and “Designing Your Life”. She is also the co-founder of Designing Your Life for Women and a Master Trainer of the Designing Your Life process. She has 15 years of experience developing electromechanical and software products, and proudly holds five patents. Kathy consults with Silicon Valley companies, teaches design thinking, conducts ethnographic research, and develops product strategies and concepts. She believes design thinking and life design are powerful mechanisms for getting unstuck, and is a passionate advocate for use of design thinking to empower social change, especially around equity for women.ResourcesThe Designing Your Life websiteThe Stanford Life Design LabUpcoming Designing Your Life for Women and Designing Your Life for Everyone workshopsDesigning Your Life for corporate teamsSeason 3 of Ask A Decision Engineer - All the feelsTo learn more from Michelle about decision making, check outThe Ask A Decision Engineer websiteHer Stanford Continuing Studies course (now enrolling, class starts July 14)Her Personal Decision Toolkit course on MavenHer Decision Toolkit course for coaches and thought partners on Maven

When making a decision, we should seek out the "best" option, right? Turns out, seeking to maximize your outcomes is likely to leave you less happy and more stressed. On the show today I bring you one of my mentors, Barry Schwartz, who wrote the game-changing book The Paradox of Choice, Why More is Less.Barry shares why maximizing is a bad goal, talks about the benefits of constraints, and shows how practical wisdom is what will enable us to succeed in the face of uncertainty and ambiguity.Topics covered03:01 What prompted him to get into this field06:48 What makes a decision bad? And people making decisions inconsistent with their goals.09:07 Maximizing is a bad goal11:07 Culture's influence on maximizing and unhappiness12:14 Why constraints are good22:37 Support Barry's grandkids' education!23:13 Practical wisdom28:02 What is needed is judgment, not rules31:24 The need to learn how to live with uncertainty and ambiguity34:56 Why you should learn to be a chefs vs. a cook37:59 Analytical tools can help…40:11 Key things to rememberGuest BioBarry Schwartz is an emeritus professor of psychology at Swarthmore College and a visiting professor at the Haas School of Business at Berkeley. He has spent fifty years thinking and writing about the interaction between economics, psychology, and morality.  He has written several books that address aspects of this interaction, including The Battle for Human Nature, The Costs of Living, The Paradox of Choice, Practical Wisdom, and most recently, Why We Work. Schwartz has written for sources as diverse as The New York Times, The New York Times Magazine, the Chronicle of Higher Education, Slate, Scientific American, The New Republic, the Harvard Business Review, and the Guardian. He has appeared on dozens of radio shows, including NPR's Morning Edition, and Talk of the Nation, and has been interviewed on Anderson Cooper 360 (CNN), the PBS News Hour, The Colbert Report, and CBS Sunday Morning. Schwartz has spoken four times at the TED conference, and his TED talks have been viewed by more than 20 million people.Resources To learn more from Michelle about decision making, check outThe Ask A Decision Engineer websiteHer Stanford Continuing Studies course (now enrolling, class starts July 14)Her Personal Decision Toolkit course on MavenHer Decision Toolkit course for coaches and thought partners on Maven

Making decisions as an individual has its challenges, but having to make decisions as a group adds many other layers of complexity. To talk about that, I brought my friend, Alexis Gonzales-Black onto today's show. Alexis is a Partner and the org design lead at August Public. Before August, she led the implementation of Holacracy at Zappos and helped shape an emerging org design practice for world-class clients at IDEO. She is an expert in organization design and is driven by a desire to make workplaces more inclusive, agile, and fun.In this episode, we talk about what she's noticing about the future of work in a hybrid environment, why consensus is not the right approach 90% of the time, what truly inclusive decision processes look like, and a quick reframe that enables you to make group decisions faster.Topics covered03:02 Moving from remote to hybrid06:16 Decision making as a persistent challenge09:04 We love consensus09:47 Decision making as a spectrum10:46 Two other approaches to try16:22 Stakeholder mapping18:26 Inclusion in decision-making processes21:05 What's possible when you reframe decision making as a skill learned over time22:25 What happens when you push decision making down to the levels closest to the work23:29 Leading the roll out of Holocracy at Zappos25:09 A tangent on releasing ourselves from the idea that we can achieve certainty26:01 Back to Holocracy at Zappos29:13 Human centered org design at IDEO31:28 What has been most fascinating about the work at August Public35:23 Decision making as a perfect proxy for understanding what's going on in an organization37:30 Key things to remember or tryGuest BioAlexis is a Partner and the Org Design lead at August Public. She is an expert in organization design, change activation, and the future of work. Over the past 15 years, she's worked with some of the world's most respected companies to design innovative organizational practices and implement large, complex change programs. Before August, she led the implementation of Holacracy at Zappos and helped shape an emerging org design practice for world-class clients at IDEO. She is driven by a desire to make workplaces more inclusive, agile, and fun.ResourcesLearn from the experts at August Public: https://www.aug.co/learningTo learn more from Michelle about decision making, check outThe Ask A Decision Engineer websiteHer Stanford Continuing Studies course (now enrolling, class starts July 14)Her Personal Decision Toolkit course on MavenHer Decision Toolkit course for coaches and thought partners on Maven 

How can you know you've made a good decision, even before you know how things turn out? It's all about understanding decision quality.To talk about that, I invited award-winning decision quality expert, Carl Spetzler onto today's show. Carl is the co-founder and chairman of Strategic Decisions group, a leading strategy consulting firm, renowned for its expertise in strategic decision making for greater value creation. He also literally wrote the book on decision quality along with his colleagues, Hannah Winter and Jennifer Meyer.Today, we talk about how the concept of decision quality has helped companies make better decisions when millions and billions of dollars are on the line, how you can employ the six links of decision quality to be confident you are making a good decision, as well as other tips for making better decisions.Topics Covered2:49 The early days of decision analysis and engineering economics6:17 Applications of decision quality in the corporate world7:55 Applications of decision quality in everyday life11:28 How to have a good decision at the time you make it11:35 Appropriate frame14:08 Creative alternatives14:45 Values16:14 Information17:12 Sound reasoning17:53 Commitment to action21:05 Your decision is only as good as the weakest link22:06 How to use the six links when you need to make decisions quickly23:58 Having the right decision agenda25:34 Pay attention to how you relate to clarity and actionGuest BioCarl Spetzler is the co-founder and chairman of Strategic Decisions Group, a leading strategy consulting firm renowned for its expertise in strategic decision-making for greater value creation. He is also the lead author of Decision Quality: Value Creation from Better Business Decisions (Wiley, 2016) with coauthors Hannah Winter and Jennifer Meyer. He serves on the board of the Decision Education Foundation, a nonprofit organization dedicated to improving the decision-making skills of youth. In 2004, Dr. Spetzler received The Ramsey Medal, the highest honor awarded by the Decision Analysis Society of INFORMS for lifetime contributions to the field.Resources mentionedStrategic Decisions GroupSociety of Decision ProfessionalsDecision Education FoundationStumbling on Happiness by Daniel GilbertTo learn more from Michelle about decision making, check outThe Ask A Decision Engineer websiteHer Stanford Continuing Studies course (now enrolling, class starts July 14)Her Personal Decision Toolkit course on MavenHer Decision Toolkit course for coaches and thought partners on Maven

Decision-making is not just a cognitive exercise; there are benefits to approaching it as a whole person. To talk more about this, I invited Amy Day, decision educator and executive director of the nonprofit Clarity for Action, to my podcast. Amy likes to say that she grew up in a decision laboratory, surrounded by giants from the field of decision science. She's certified as a decision educator, coach and advisor through Stanford, continuing studies.Over the past 20 years, she has combined her native background in decision quality, with insights, from social emotional learning, in order to teach emerging adults and parents to integrate whole person decision making into their lives in order to get clarity and take purposeful action.Today, Amy explains how to check one's decision fitness with a simple acronym, the four components of whole person decision making, and what parents and adults can do to cultivate decision skills and the young people they support.Topics Covered2:49 Whole person decision making4:27 Growing up in a decision laboratory7:24 Working the emotions that arise in decision making8:34 Decision fitness and my internal operating system14:10 Four areas of whole-person decision making14:20 Values: Who am I16:02 Internal Operating System: How am I, decision fitness, and HALT18:36 The importance of putting on your own oxygen mask first19:37 Decision Process: What could I26:53 Action: What are my action steps27:55 Quality of decisions, quality of outcomes32:11 Decision aftercare36:00 Decision classroomResources Clarity4Action.orgTo learn more from Michelle about decision making, check outThe Ask A Decision Engineer websiteHer Stanford Continuing Studies course (now enrolling, class starts July 14)

Decisions. They are the way we can steer our lives forward, yet how much thought do people give to how they are making them? And more importantly, what are the small things we can do to improve them?In this episode, I go back to basics with global decision making expert, Ralph Keeney. Ralph is a Professor Emeritus of Business Administration at Duke University and a Professor Emeritus of Industrial and Systems Engineering at the University of Southern California. He has written multiple books on decision making, including Value-Focused Thinking, Smart Choices, and Give Yourself A Nudge.We talk about why it's worth putting thought into how you make decisions, the impact of shifting focus from decision problems, to decision opportunities, the importance of defining your values in a decision and some quick things you can do to improve your decision making.Topics Covered3:25 Why is it worth it to take time to think about decision making?4:57 Learning the skill of decision making through practice6:52 Which decisions are worthy of thought7:46 How much time and effort to put into decisions10:58 Shifting from alternatives-focused to value-focused thinking14:46 Decision problems vs. decision opportunities19:04 Decision opportunities as a way to reduce bad outcomes21:03 Where you should focus your efforts to improve a decision22:19 The three keys24:40 The three keys: an example27:41 How to nudge yourself to make better decisions28:43 A nudge for those obsessed with finding the best option31:29 Little nudges > Learning decision analysis32:52 Practice on your personal decisions34:45 Advice for those uncomfortable with decision making in the face of uncertainty36:17 The upside of uncertainty38:27 Parting words of wisdomGuest BioRalph L. Keeney is an expert on decision making. His passion is to help individuals and organizations improve their decision making skills. He has written extensively on the foundational ideas and concepts for making quality decisions and on practical procedures to routinely use, and applications of, those ideas and concepts on important decisions. Dr. Keeney has consulted on a wide range of decisions including corporate management problems, public policy, and significant personal decisions.Professor Keeney's books, which have been translated into numerous languages, include Decisions with Multiple Objectives with Howard Raiffa (1976, 1993), Value- Focused Thinking: A Path to Creative Decisionmaking (1992), Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions, with John S. Hammond and Howard Raiffa (1999), and Give Yourself a Nudge: Helping Smart People Make Smarter Personal and Business Decisions (2020).Keeney received a Ph.D. in engineering and operations research from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He is a Research Professor Emeritus of Business Administration at Duke University and a Research Professor Emeritus of Industrial and Systems Engineering at the University of Southern California. He recently received an honorary doctorate from the University of Waterloo in Canada and has been a member of the National Academy of Engineering of the U.S. since 1995. ResourcesGive Yourself a Nudge: Helping Smart People Make Smarter Personal and Business Decisions (2020) Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions, with John S. Hammond and Howard Raiffa (1999)Value-Focused Thinking: A Path to Creative Decisionmaking (1992)Oji DecideTo learn more from Michelle about decision making, check outThe Ask A Decision Engineer websiteHer Stanford Continuing Studies course (now enrolling, class starts July 14)Her Personal Decision Toolkit course on MavenHer Decision Toolkit course for coaches and thought partners on Maven 

Confidence is a critical part of decision making and being an effective leader. Not enough confidence and you won't move a decision to the action or be able to cultivate the support needed to move it forward. Too much confidence and you could make decisions that unnecessarily put you and others at risk. So how do you walk the line of having just the right amount of confidence? Today, I speak with Don Moore: confidence expert, UC Berkeley Haas School of Business professor and author of the book, Perfectly Confident. We discuss the different types of overconfidence we should be aware of as well as ways that decision makers can better calibrate their confidence. He'll also share insights from his latest book Decision Leadership, which helps leaders think about how to empower people within their organizations to make better choices.Topics Covered03:02 What is at stake when confidence is not well calibrated?04:52 Defining confidence06:31 Confidence, reality, and the downsides of overconfidence08:56 Calibrating confidence among startup founders10:32 The 3 types of overconfidence11:05 How to better calibrate your confidence14:01 The importance of probabilistic thinking15:52 Making decisions by calculating expected value18:11 Beware of hindsight bias + Importance of documenting19:44 What role should intuition play in decision making?22:54 Some ways in which intuition is predictably biased23:32 What decision makers should keep in mind - think beyond yourself25:05 Leader as decision architect28:03 Other ways leaders can positively influence the quality of decisions in their org29:23 What to track31:02 Choosing when to stop gathering information32:49 Don't fall into the trap of focusing solely on what's easy to quantify34:03 The downsides of underconfidenceGuest BioDon Moore is a professor of management of organizations at UC Berkeley's Haas School of Business. He is the author of Perfectly Confident and a co-author of the books Judgement in Managerial Decision Making and Decision Leadership. His expertise and research interests include overconfidence, ethical choice, decision-making, and negotiation. He is only occasionally overconfident.ResourcesPerfectly ConfidentDecision LeadershipLearnMoore.orgTo learn more from Michelle about decision making, check outThe Ask A Decision Engineer websiteHer Stanford Continuing Studies course (now enrolling, class started July 14)Her Personal Decision Toolkit course on MavenHer Decision Toolkit course for coaches and thought partners on Maven 

Risk. For some people, the very thought sends chills down their spines, yet for others, the topic prompts a sense of thrill. Why is that the case? And what does that mean for how we think about risk in decision making?To answer those questions and more, I turned to Michele Wucker, author of the books, The Gray Rhino, and You Are What You Risk. We chat about how the way we define risk matters, the layers of factors that make up our risk fingerprint, and things to keep in mind about risk when making group decisions. Topics Covered03:11 What brought Michele to studying risk08:12 The way you define risk, matters12:26 Awareness is the first step in adjusting your natural tendency13:14 Risk and group dynamics16:06 Getting the right kind of diversity in the room to promote better decision making18:02 The risk fingerprint concept21:36 Optimizing your risk fingerprint given your personality and experiences23:59 What feels risky depends on your values25:13 How to build your risk muscle25:31 Practice26:32 Self-awareness27:47 Surrounding yourself with the right people28:56 Little hacks30:14 How risk empathy can improve group decision making31:25 Questions you can ask to better understand someone else's risk fingerprint35:48 Thinking about risk in decisions that have broader impact39:39 Me-here-now vs. Us-everywhere-forever41:00 Final words of wisdomGuest BioStrategist, speaker, and best-selling author Michele Wucker coined the term “gray rhino” as a call to take a fresh look at how we respond to obvious, probable, impactful risks. She founded the Chicago-based advisory firm Gray Rhino & Company and is a former media and think tank executive. Her four books include the influential global bestseller THE GRAY RHINO: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore and the recently released sequel, YOU ARE WHAT YOU RISK: The New Art and Science of Navigating an Uncertain World.ResourcesTHE GRAY RHINO: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We IgnoreYOU ARE WHAT YOU RISK: The New Art and Science of Navigating an Uncertain WorldTo learn more from Michelle about decision making, check outThe Ask A Decision Engineer websiteHer Personal Decision Toolkit course on MavenHer Decision Toolkit course for coaches and thought partners on Maven 

In all my years of teaching about decision making, no topic generates more angst than the need to know. But how do you know what you know? How do you know when you know what you know? And how do you integrate this knowing into some of the most important decisions of your life?In this episode, I invited Dave Evans onto the show to talk all about these topics of knowing and discernment. Dave is the co-author of Designing Your Life and Designing Your New Work Life. He co-founded the Stanford Life Design lab and holds the title of discernment lead for a social impact accelerator.He shares a number of things he's learned from sitting with thousands of lives via the Designing Your Life programs, including how to go beyond cognitive knowing, the important distinction between certainty and faith, how to approach when things go wrong, and exercises for honing your discernment.Topics Covered1:01 A story of how Dave ran smack up against this discernment topic2:27 It's ok to not have it all figured out4:40 Defining discernment5:58 You're not just a brain on a transport system7:36 Overcoming resistance to tapping into the emotional center of knowing10:11 The peak-knowing and trough-knowing exercise10:59 Your brain announced it, but your brain didn't do it12:21 The importance of articulating and reflecting on what's happening12:54 Surrogation vs. analysis14:47 We are humans, not robots15:26 There is no knowing. Simply give it your best possible shot.17:40 But what about when things go wrong?21:16 Where the bias toward causality gets us in trouble22:46 The falsehood of knowing and distinction between certainty and faith24:55 The philosophical underpinnings of human-centered design26:05 Faith and acceptance28:41 How growth and collaboration factors into this30:50 Most big decisions are a bet on your future self33:48 Improve decision making by using multiple ways of knowing34:10 The Odyssey plan as a tool for tapping into how various futures feel36:01 In hard decision making, it's not about deciding the right thing38:19 There's no elimination of risk, just reduction of risk. Know your threshold.41:14 How to tune into other ways of knowing42:51 Three levels of discernment: transaction, practice, and formation45:08 The be-do-become cycleGuest BioFrom saving the seals to solving the energy crisis, from imagining mice to redefining software — Dave's been on a mission, including helping others to find theirs.Starting at Stanford in the 70's with dreams of following Jacques Cousteau as a marine biologist, Dave realized (a bit late) that he was lousy at it and shifted to mechanical engineering with an eye on the energy problem. After four years in alternative energy, it was clear that this idea's time hadn't come yet. So while en route to biomedical engineering, Dave accepted an invitation to work for Apple, where he led the mouse team and introduced laser printing to the masses. When Dave's boss at Apple left to start Electronic Arts, Dave joined as the company's first VP of Talent, dedicated to making “software worthy of the minds that use it.”Having participated in forming the corporate cultures at Apple and EA, Dave decided his best work was in helping organizations build creative environments where people could do great work and love doing it. So he went out on his own working with start-up teams, large corporate executives, non-profit leaders, and countless young adults. They were all asking the same question. “What should I do with my life?” Helping people get traction on that question finally took Dave first to Cal and then Stanford, where Dave is co-founder of the Stanford Life Design Lab in the Stanford Design Program.Dave and his partner Bill Burnett made their popular Stanford course Designing Your Life into a New York Times #1 Bestselling book of the same name, released in September 2016, followed by Designing Your Work Life in February 2020 and Designing Your New Work Life in October 2021.Dave holds a BS and MS in Mechanical Engineering from Stanford and a graduate diploma in Contemplative Spirituality from San Francisco Theological Seminary.ResourcesDesigning Your Life websiteDesigning Your Life bookDesigning Your *New Work Life bookTo learn more from Michelle about decision making, check outThe Ask A Decision Engineer websiteHer Personal Decision Toolkit course on MavenHer Decision Toolkit course for coaches and thought partners on Maven

Whenever I teach about decision making, inevitably, the comment comes up, "These frameworks are great and all, but what do I do about the other people in the room?" Decision making in groups definitely adds a layer of complexity. That's why I invited Katherine Rosback, an expert decision and risk analysis facilitator and a colleague of mine from the Society of Decision Professionals onto the show.We'll be talking about the science behind asking questions, how to lay the groundwork for shifting someone's perspective, and strategies for facilitating more effective meetings. Topics Covered02:35 How Katherine came to do this work4:28 What do I do about organizational politics?5:14 The science behind questioning9:16 Look at the system, not the individual11:07 Facilitate what is happening, not what you think ought to be happening12:08 Asking > Telling14:10 The mountain peak vs the tectonic plates15:10 The bridging technique20:42 Center meetings around questions instead of objectives24:20 Meetings are the most expensive form of communication26:24 How to think about who should be in the room30:33 Be mindful about ensuring people are heard32:54 After we've solicited these different perspectives, then what?35:13 Islands, bananas, and keeping the boat from turning around38:30 Two key lessons to take awayGuest BioKatherine Rosback is an expert in coaching decision and problem-solving teams and facilitating the messy, ambiguous but must-succeed meeting. She has a BS in Chemical Engineering and an MA in Organizational Communication. Katherine has over 25 years' experience facilitating decision teams, cross-functional strategic planning workshops, and teaching team facilitators and decision boards how to improve decision quality by asking the better question and navigate the inevitable behavioral complexities. Katherine works with Fortune 500 industries such as airline, oil & gas, and pharma. She is the author of Asking is Better than Telling and host of the podcast, What's Another Question.ResourcesAsking is Better Than Telling bookKatherine's websiteTo learn more from Michelle about decision making, check outThe Ask A Decision Engineer websiteHer Stanford Continuing Studies courseHer Personal Decision Toolkit course on MavenHer Decision Toolkit course for coaches and thought partners on Maven 

So often in the midst of change or the unknown where our mind goes first is what are we going to do? But what if the key to being able to navigate change and uncertainty was less about doing, but rather a way of being? Today, I'm in conversation with April Rinne, a futurist, speaker, and author of the book, Flux: 8 Superpowers For Thriving In Constant Change, where she shares what she has found is the most effective way for navigating the current world of rapidly accelerating unexpected change. We talk about the illusion that keeps us from seeing things as they are, why cultivating a flux mindset now is more important than ever before, and some of the superpowers that can empower you when responding to change and making decisions.Topics Covered03:03 How did you start down this path04:08 April's three lenses on change07:14 Shifting from doing to becoming08:16 Are you viewing change with hope or fear?11:33 We don't like change that we can't control13:05 Now, more than ever, we need to learn how to be with change16:18 The history of the illusion of control17:40 What would be possible when we choose to lift the veil20:24 Flux mindset as a key for navigating change21:56 How does Flux mindset relate to Growth mindset23:15 The 8 superpowers of the Flux mindset25:24 The superpower that makes you cringe may point to where your relationship to change needs extra attention26:19 Superpower 1: Run slower26:44 Superpower 2: See what's invisible27:09 Superpower 3: Get lost27:33 Superpower 4: Start with trust28:04 Superpower 5: Know your enough28:10 Superpower 6: Create your portfolio career28:40 Superpower 7: Be all the more human28:53 Superpower 8: Let go of the future29:44 Know your enough / Know you're enough38:10 The benefits of embracing getting lost43:10 Parting wordsGuest BioApril Rinne is a “change navigator,” speaker, investor, and adventurer whose work and travels in more than 100 countries have given her a front-row seat to a world in flux. She is ranked one of the 50 leading female futurists in the world by Forbes and is a Harvard Law School graduate, a Young Global Leader at the World Economic Forum, a Fulbright Scholar, a member of the Silicon Guild, and the author of Flux: 8 Superpowers for Thriving in Constant Change. April is a trusted advisor to well-known startups, companies, financial institutions, nonprofits, think tanks, and governments worldwide, including Airbnb, Nike, Intuit, the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank, AnyRoad, and Unsettled as well as governments ranging from Singapore to South Africa, Canada to Colombia, and Italy to India. Earlier in life she was a global development executive, an international microfinance lawyer, and a hiking guide. As a certified yoga teacher, she can often be found upside-down, doing handstands around the world.ResourcesFlux: 8 Superpowers for Thriving in Constant ChangeTo learn more from Michelle about decision making, check outThe Ask A Decision Engineer websiteHer Stanford Continuing Studies courseHer Personal Decision Toolkit course on MavenHer Decision Toolkit course for coaches and thought partners on Maven

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