The GlobalCapital Podcast

Send us a text◆ How worrying is Section 899? ◆ A summer of toil for public sector issuers ◆ Seesawing curves in FIGThe bland outpourings of ChatGPT could not be further from the penetrating, critical advice big companies, governments and investors want from investment banks.But could one foster the other? That is the ideal banks are striving for with a plethora of projects to use artificial intelligence — not for the hard stuff, they say, but for the easy stuff.Automating tiresome work like compiling presentations could free up time — especially for junior bankers. But what are the juniors going to do with their free time?Sir Siegmund Warburg, founder of SG Warburg in 1946 and father of modern European investment banking, had a few ideas…One task human intelligence is struggling with is understanding Section 899 of President Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill. Clearly intended as a revenge tax to penalise investors in countries whose tax policies the US considers unfair, its scope of implementation is very unclear. So far, debt capital markets have paid little attention, but it could bite them hard.And this week in the market, supranational, sovereign and agency borrowers were packing in the funding. Could June be another January, stuffed with deals? And could January stretch into July? The curve balls Trump is hurling at the economy are leading to weird dynamics in the financial institution bond market, with the curves for covered bonds and senior debt undulating differently. Can issuers and investors make sense of it? 

Send us a text◆ EU's securitization plan leaked ◆ The first new EM sovereign issuer for years ◆ Who can be sued for climate change?Interest rates coming down was supposed to be a sure bet. Now it's not. Long government bond yields are rising, and not just in the US. Investors are worried — the term premium is climbing, which means it's not enough now. It's safest to stay away from duration.We try to diagnose this queasy market for high quality bonds. Are there any silver linings?MLex, a regulatory news service, has leaked two crucial draft proposals from the European Commission for how it will reform rules on securitization. Will they ease what the market feels is regulators' stranglehold?It's six years since the last new sovereign bond issuer appeared from a true emerging market, but the Kyrgyz Republic came this week. The bond was a hit — we explore what it means.You may not have heard of Huaraz — or Hamm. But you've probably heard of RWE, the German power company which has been called Europe's biggest carbon emitter.This week an appeal court in Hamm, Germany denied a lawsuit by a farmer from Huaraz, Peru. He had sued RWE for damages for the risk to his home from global warming-induced flooding. But his supporters believe they achieved their aim: establishing that carbon emitters can be held liable for climate change.

Send us a text◆ Capital markets' Bloomberg scare ◆ SSAs tipped to go sub-US Treasuries ◆ Jumbos devour credit demand A blip in Bloomberg's terminal services this week delayed bookbuilding on a number of syndications and bond auctions. It passed with seemingly little harm done. But it did reveal how dependent bond issuance and fixed income has become on the company's platform. We asked what would be at stake if there was a longer outage and what can be done to prevent major disruption.Meanwhile, rising US Treasury yields mean SSA bonds are trading at ever smaller spreads over them. It wasn't that long ago that issuers questioned the wisdom of trying to price bonds at a single-digit spread to the US benchmark. This week a German issuer built its biggest every orderbook in the currency with a bond that came at 7bp over — it then tightened to 3.5bp over.Now the SSA market is wondering if or when an issuer will price through what is supposed to be the world's rick-free benchmark security. We lay out the cases for and against.Finally, we ask whether the European corporate bond market is running out of steam after one jumbo deal too many, and we also take a look at the bustling market for the riskiest part of a bank's capital stack: additional tier one paper.

Send us a text◆ What happened at the EBRD's Annual Meetings ◆ Romania's new president and the fiscal fright that awaits him ◆ Investors distracted from FIG by US corporatesGlobalCapital was on the ground at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development's Annual Meetings in London this week. We reveal what was discussed and decided, from the bank's capital situation and US involvement, to its support for Ukraine and beyond.Meanwhile, Romania goes to the polls this weekend. Whoever wins the presidential election faces the challenge of bringing down a big deficit. As one of the emerging markets' biggest bond issuers, that may have repercussions for its credit.Finally, we looked at the interplay between two different parts of the credit markets this week as US corporate issuers' stole European banks' thunder. We look ahead to how this will affect issuance to come.

Send us a text◆ US gives further clues on MDB support ◆ FIG issuers face funding choices ◆ What's the point of the EU green bond standard?We surveilled the SSA bond market this week and the development finance world to see what both made of US decisions about financial support for a number of international development funders. The result was relief but it was not unqualified, as we ponder what this may mean for US president Donald Trump's review into the country's involvement in international financial institutions.Meanwhile, banks are facing a stark choice about whether to raise covered bond funding or to do unsecured deals. We examine their options and the factors affecting their decisions.Following a deal from Iberdrola this week, we also look at how enthusiastic issuers have been to bring bonds under the EU green bond standards, a new label denoting use of proceeds aligned with the bloc's Taxonomy of Sustainable Activities, and whether there they offer the market any real benefit.

Send us a text◆ SLBs miss targets with hundreds more up for review ◆ US issuers make hay in European sunshine ◆ Banks probe longer dated debt issuanceThe wave of sustainability-linked bonds that were all the rage a few years ago are now reaching the point where their issuers' performance against their environmental KPIs is being judged. Two issuers this week have failed to meet their targets and will pay higher coupons as a result. We took the opportunity to see what impact this might have on supply and demand for a product that has become a niche when at one point it threatened to be the next big thing, or whether there are other factors that will help or hinder its renaissance.We also look at some eye-catching bond issues in euros by high profile US companies, including a debut from Alphabet, to see what is driving issuance.Finally, we discuss banks' long-dated funding options in the bond market.

Send us a text◆ Insiders assess Scott Bessent's speech on MDB reform ◆ European Commission's latest attempt to ease capital market access ◆ Encouraging signs for credit issuers after tariff turmoilThe US administration gave some clues as to its beliefs on how the IMF and the World Bank should change their operations for the first time this week since president Donald Trump signed an executive order in February asking for a review into the country's involvement in international financial organisations.US treasury secretary Scott Bessant outlined at an event in Washington, DC to coincide with the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings his gripes with the two institutions. We discuss if and how reform can be achieved and what the bond market and development finance specialists made of what Bessent said.The EU meanwhile has launched a consultation into removing capital barriers across the bloc. We discuss what it wants to achieve and whether it is likely to do so.Finally, after weeks of US tariffs causing turmoil in capital markets, we look at credit to see how issuers are finding their way back to the primary market and adjusting to the new level of spreads.

Send us a text◆ Running a bond business in a crisis ◆ Bank issuers find their way back into the bond market ◆ Can frontier emerging market sovereigns fund themselves?This was supposed to be a decent year for banks in the debt and equity capital markets. But the uncertainty generated by a chaotic US tariff policy has wrecked investment banks' ability to plan and operate in their markets.We look at what is grinding the sell-side's gears and investigate how banks should navigate the volatility to meet their budgets.One area of the bond market where issuance has been slow to resume since the US first announced its new tariffs is the senior unsecured FIG market. Issuers returned this week, so we took the opportunity to examine where FIG borrowers can raise debt capital from covered bonds all the way down to subordinated debt.The yields on many frontier emerging market sovereign bonds have gapped higher this month to above the 10% level that many consider the beginning of the death zone for debt sustainability. We ask whether this has the makings of a debt crisis, or if issuers are well prepared to weather the storm.

Send us a text◆ Did we come close to a full blown crisis before Trump's tariff climbdown? ◆ Will we face another in 90 days' time? ◆ UK regulator's astonishing covered bond rulingWe looked this week into whether the US's decision to postpone the imposition of punishing tariffs by 90 days averted a financial crisis, or merely postponed it.The action in the US Treasury market was not good this week as investors and traders appeared to pile into cash rather than assets. Stock markets were red but the US government bond market caught no safe haven bid and sold off too. The peril abated with the tariff postponement on Wednesday but there were signs of a brewing crisis in the run-up to that decision. We ask whether markets will be better prepared in July if the US goes ahead with its trade policy.We also delve into a decision by the UK regulator, the Prudential Regulation Authority, to disallow non-UK covered bonds from counting as high quality liquid assets for UK banks. We explore the ramifications for UK lenders and the covered bond market.

Send us a text◆ How US tariffs will affect bond issuers in the medium and long term◆ Liberation Day: your funniest quotes ◆ A funding update from KfW's head of capital markets, Petra WehlertUS president Donald Trump's imposition of a vast swathe of tariffs on imports bludgeoned stock markets this week and proved the stuff of nightmares for investors as they contemplated the possibility of recession and the return of inflation.But the reality for the bond market will likely be rather more nuanced. We picked our way through Europe's investment grade corporate and financial institution bond markets to see what "Liberation Day" will mean for credit issuers' immediate deal pipelines and the longer term.We also discussed the ramifications for the many varied economies and borrowers in the CEEMEA region as we followed the trail of cause and effect from the Oval Office to South Africa and Romania, and via China to Nigeria and Saudi Arabia.

Send us a text◆ Farewell, KommuneKredit ◆ Covered bonds advance on SSAs' territory ◆ Ivory Coast makes funding breakthrough ◆ Romania's risksGenuinely useful applications of AI are still rare in capital markets, but UniCredit has come up with an intriguing one. It has built a tool called DealSync that is helping it generate M&A mandates.The supranational, sovereign and agency bond market was shocked on Wednesday to learn that it would be losing a well known issuer, KommuneKredit. The Danish government has decided it will be cheaper to just issue bonds itself. Could other agencies disappear?Covered bond spreads have been getting tighter and tighter, while SSA spreads are widening. Might covered bonds actually start pricing inside some of the best public sector issuers such as German states or Dutch agencies?In emerging markets, heavy issuer Romania's dual tranche bond this week went well, but there were telltale signs of the funding stress the country could face if it does not resolve its political difficulties and huge budget deficit.Ivory Coast has a better story to tell — it has become only the second African country to issue an international bond in its domestic currency. This funding technique, widely used in Latin America and central Asia, holds out hope of reducing African countries' need to borrow riskily in hard currency, exposing themselves to FX risk.

Send us a text◆ UK fires starting pistol on digital Gilts ◆ SSA market absorbs EU defence funding detail ◆ Credit issuers adjust tacticsThe UK has begun a consultation as it looks to issue its first digital Gilt - to be called a DiGit. We discuss what the bond will look like and the UK's route to issuance.Elsewhere in the SSA bond market, participants took stock of further detail on how the EU plans to fund its Security Action for Europe (SAFE) scheme. We examine the details and the bond market's reaction.We also revisit the primary credit market where things were starting to turn for the worse last week to see if FIG and corporate issuers have found a way to keep investors happy.And finally, we bring news of a brand new data product for the medium term note market from GlobalCapital.Now read on:UK sets fast pace for digital Gilt, hoping to catch up on DLTIpsen blowout lays blueprint for corporate blockbustersFIG issuers increase new issue premiums to boost volumesSSA market ‘still unclear' how EU's joint defence funding could workEGB market grapples with European rearmament plans

Send us a text◆ DOGE threatens US CMBS recovery ◆ Drill, baby, drill? Borrow, habibi, borrow ◆ Cracks appear in European credit marketJust when you thought it was safe to go back into the office... or rather back into commercial mortgage backed securities with offices as the collateral.No sooner has the US CMBS revival begun than US president Donald Trump's administration threatens to ruin it. The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) spearheaded by Elon Musk is ripping up government office leases . We explain how that could hurt the CMBS market.In the Middle East, a falling oil price has set investors and bankers wondering about how much more borrowers from the region — especially Saudi Arabia — will need from the bond market this year.Cracks are also starting to appear in Europe's previously buoyant credit market. We look at where to find the fissures and how issuers can bridge them.

Send us a text◆ EU puts forward €800bn plan◆ Germany screeches into U-turn on debt brake ◆ Bund yield soars 40bp The spectre of European countries needing to massively increase spending on defence has haunted the capital markets ever since it became clear that US president Donald Trump was really thinking of drastically weakening US military support to Europe.It had already triggered a sell-off in European government bonds. But this week a vague expectation got some concrete numbers. Germany's CDU, likely to lead the next government, has turned 180° and struck a deal with the SPD to make huge exceptions to the constitutional debt brake, including €500bn for infrastructure.Germany's 10 year bond yield made its biggest leap for decades on Wednesday, but then stabilised, suggesting the market now knows how big the issue is and can digest it.Meanwhile the EU has also got on the front foot, announcing an €800bn ReArm Europe plan including €150bn of new joint borrowing.We explore the results for the supranational, sovereign and agency bond market and for central and east European governments, where the security and fiscal concerns are keenest.

Send us a text◆ Rob Murray, the Defence, Security and Resilience Bank's creator, explains all ◆ Why US must be involved ◆ Three point strategy to augment defence spendingThe idea of a new multilateral bank to help fund defence spending in Europe has shifted to the fore in recent weeks. European leaders are understood to be discussing the idea this week and a plan for one could be announced soon.Rob Murray, a former British army officer, is the person who first came up with an idea while working at Nato in 2018. He joined the podcast this week to discuss how it would work, the three things it would do that no other institution could do as well, and who would be part of it.

Send us a text◆ German and European spending needs rile SSA market ◆ GSE reform in the US, green reform in the EU ◆ Saudi Arabia leads Gulf diversification out of dollarsNew German chancellor Friedrich Merz has a lot to tackle when he finally forms his coalition government. Much of it will involve spending more money, which has bond investors on alert for higher borrowing.One senior economist told a conference in Frankfurt this week that he believes there are five factors dogging the German economy. We discuss what they are, what Merz can do about them and how this is affecting the SSA bond market.The reform of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae is on the minds of those in the US securitization market. We delve into whether the pair could or should be put back into private hands after almost 17 years of government conservatorship.The EU looks set to ease some recently imposed ESG regulations. We ask if the bloc risks relinquishing its leading position in green finance.Finally, we look into a landmark deal from Saudi Arabia, which is part of a developing trend among Gulf issuers to diversify their bond issuance.

Send us a text◆ German poll to have far-reaching consequences for bond market ◆ UK water sector's capital markets tangle ◆ Corporate issuance picks up in emerging marketsGermany votes this weekend in a general election. Whatever the resulting coalition, fiscal matters will be top of their agenda. With the pressure on to raise defence spending but with the constraints of the country's debt brake to tackle, the strain is already showing in the bond market before a vote has been counted.The UK water regulator has set out the conditions under which the 10 utilities it governs must operate. But this is a troubled sector of the UK economy and downgrades have been rife. We pick apart these companies' access to capital markets and how well they can raise the funding they need even as one teeters on the brink of default.Meanwhile, corporate bond issuance in the emerging markets has been shrinking for years. But there are signs of a turnaround. We examine who is issuing and why.

Send us a text◆ Using the bond market to boost European security ◆ Africa nears sovereign debt stabiliser ◆ Sterling's ESG problemWith the new US government reasserting its belief that Europe needs to provide more of its own security this week, attention has turned once again to how to pay for it.We discuss the various ideas in play, from setting up a new multilateral development bank to retooling existing SSA borrowers for the purpose, examining the pros and cons of each.Meanwhile, the African Union may be about to bring to fruition a sovereign debt stability mechanism. It is the only continent that does not have one and proponents believe it will ultimately bring down borrowing costs for issuers as well as offering them an alternative source of ready capital in a crisis. We delve into how the entity will work.Finally, we have been investigating why the UK bond market lags others when it comes to ESG labelled bonds and question whether the government and regulators should do more to encourage issuance.

Send us a text◆ Trump orders review of US involvement in multilateral development banks ◆ What's driving Reverse Yankee issuance? ◆ Deutsche Bank sparks new controversy in AT1 capitalAmong many of the executive orders Donald Trump has signed since he became US president for the second time was one which ordered a review of the country's involvement in international organisations. That will include the multilateral development banks, in which it is often the biggest shareholder and which are big bond issuers.We investigate how seriously the MDBs and the bond market should take the review as there is evidence of support for the sector in Trump's previous stint in the White House but also seemingly a revitalised sense of isolationsim and nationalism this time around. US influence was prevalent in the European investment grade corporate bond market this week too. IBM was among a trio of US issuers pricing Reverse Yankee bonds. We look into what is driving the supply and what deals are to come.Finally, we talked about whether Deutsche Bank's hint that it would not call two of its dollar additional tier one deals this year would rile investors at a time when the market for the product is red hot. 

Send us a text◆ Why you got paid what you got paid◆ Insider reveals what really goes on when bonuses are allocated ◆ HSBC winds down M&A and ECMWe lift the lid on how bonuses are allocated in investment banking from the top table to the lowliest analyst. Our columnist, Craig Coben, who spent many years as a senior equities banker at Merrill Lynch and then Bank of America, has been through the bonus cycle many times and reveals just what goes into someone's number and the bank's true motivation and aims in paying out. Meanwhile, HSBC shocked many this week by revealing it will shutter much of its M&A and equity capital markets business. Our Southpaw columnist, David Rothnie joins us as we discuss why the bank is doing this and whether it is a step in the right direction.

Send us a text◆ Riso and Ruhl on the development of the market's biggest new bond issuer ◆ Beyond NextGeneration EU: can the bloc fund defence? ◆ The campaign for sovereign-like borrower statusThe European Union is the highest profile bond issuer in the market. In response to the pandemic, it ramped up its borrowing to fund member states' recovery from the disaster, going from raising around €500m a year to around €150bn almost overnight.As an issuer, it dominates the public sector bond market and in this episode, GlobalCapital asked two of its most important figures, when it comes to its bond market activities, about what lies in store.We talked about how the issuer's capital markets presence is developing, why it believes it should be classed as a sovereign-style issuer (and the progress it has made), and its possible future funding needs.Our guests:Stephanie Riso is the director general of DG Budget within the European Commission — the department responsible for raising and allocating the money the EU needs to implement policy, including from the bond market. She took over the directorate in March 2023, joining from the cabinet of Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, where she oversaw the creation of the €800bn NextGenerationEU programme that the EU's bond issues fund.Siegfried Ruhl is hors classe advisor to DG Budget and a veteran of the public sector bond market. He initially took the post on a short secondment from the European Financial Stability and European Stability Mechanism — the two bond issuing bailout vehicles for EU member states founded during the sovereign debt crisis, which he helped set up. Over four years later he is still at the heart of developing the EU's capabilities as a bond issuer — a task he is well versed in having not only been there since the start with the EFSF and ESM but also having helped to create Germany's Finanzagentur, the country's debt management office.

Send us a text◆ How the bond market will drive CCMM to provide more climate tech cash ◆ Multilateral development  bank hybrid capital — and may have found its niche◆ Covered bond market roars back to life but will it last?The CIF Capital Markets Mechanism (CCMM) priced its first bond this week. The issuer is raising money so that the Climate Investment Funds, created in 2008 as a channel for rich countries to finance the green transition in developing states, can do more lending through its Clean Technology Fund. We look into the issuer, its deal and where it fits in the SSA bond market.The first benchmark-sized publicly sold hybrid since the African Development Bank's deal from about a year ago also surfaced this week. The issuer was the African Finance Corporation. It is, like the AfDB, a multilateral development institution. But it has very different characteristics and these may give a clue as to where MDB hybrid capital deals will succeed in the future.Finally, covered bond issuance has lagged behind the pace of other parts of the bond market this year but that all changed this week. We examine what the hold up was, why issuers have finally come to the market now, and what could derail the revival.

Send us a text◆ Gilts rocked on macro fears but sterling bond issuance booms ◆ Just how much of a basket case is the UK anyway? ◆ Debt-for-nature swaps blossomThis has lead to references in the press to the 2022 Gilt crisis, which the Conservative government caused with its notorious mini-budget of tax cuts to be fuelled through Gilt issuance. There have even been comparisons with 1976 when the UK took a loan from the IMF. We find out whether such comparisons are warranted.In any case, what's bad for UK taxpayers appears to be fantastic for issuers and investors in the sterling bond market with record volumes of issuance being priced this week. We explain what is driving the market if the economic picture is really as bad as it is being painted to be.We also take a look at the rise of the deb-for-nature swap — a financial package that allows distressed sovereigns to restructure debt and put money towards environmental causes.

Send us a text◆ The sheep and the goats in UK water ◆ How EM loses assets but gains deals ◆ US corporates lean to euro bondsInvestment bankers feel like they're on the verge of something good: a boom year in 2025 of mergers and acquisitions, by both corporate and private equity firms, and all the debt and equity financing that goes with it.The US will be front and centre, all agree, as even the prospect of Donald Trump's presidency is quickening the nerves with hopes of deregulation and M&A being waved through without questions.Even Trump's harsher moves like tariffs could stimulate deals as companies try to position themselves better.It's a shoo-in that the US investment banks will do well in this climate, but which of the European banks are chasing them hardest, and managing to outrun their peers? We highlight the winners of 2024 and next year's contenders.Also this week, Ofwat, the UK water regulator, produced its much-anticipated final determination of the financial parameters for water companies for the next five years. We explore what it does for the sector, especially its sickest member, Thames Water.And the US Federal Reserve made a "hawkish cut" of interest rates this week. That is crushing the hopes of emerging market bond investors, which have been longing for three years for a strong rate cutting cycle to give them some money inflows at last.But it could be good news for bond bankers in London, as US companies may turn to the euro and sterling markets for funding next year.

Send us a text◆ How to fund Europe ◆ What market experts think is going to happen next ◆ The EU to embark on biggest six-month funding spreeThe European Union shapes up poorly compared to its rivals when it comes to growth and competitiveness. Former ECB president and Italian prime minister Mario Draghi believes the bloc needs €800bn of investment a year, but how to raise it? We reveal all.That story is just one in our Review 2024 | Outlook 2025 special report. If you register by clicking through to this page, you will not only receive a free printed edition of the report but also 14 days of free access to GlobalCapital.We also discuss what the most senior debt capital markets bankers think is going to happen in the year ahead, and where they see the threats and opportunities for their business. Clue: good news for those either looking to start out, or who have newly arrived in, their capital markets careers.

Send us a text◆ French government collapse scrambles bond market ◆ What next for French corporate, FIG, covered bond and public sector bond issuers? ◆ ECB Trials on distributed ledger technology: the verdictThe long-running saga of the peril of the French public purse took a new twist this week as the country's government collapsed over budget wrangling. That turned the traditional order of relative value between French bond issuers on its head — corporates, including luxury good firm LVMH, now trade tighter than the sovereign.We look into what comes next for French issuers from the sovereign and public sector agencies, to the country's banks and investment grade companies. Do investors really believe they are more likely to be paid back by LVMH than by the state?We also revisit the recently concluded ECB Trials of distributed ledger technology in the bond market to see what progress was made and whether capital markets are any closer to going digital.

Send us a text◆ French bond issuers' tough time ahead as PM fights to get budget through ◆ Trump tough talk on tariffs' threat to emerging markets◆ Investors give IPO sellers the silent treatmentThere are barneys - quarrels to those unfamiliar with British slang - breaking out all over the place and capital markets are caught in the crossfire.In France, prime minister Michel Barnier has a fight on his hands to get his budget passed. It could cost him his job. Meanwhile, French government bond yields are soaring alongside the country's deficit.We look at the dilemma that poses for French issuers in the public sector and covered bond markets through the prism of a deal from one of them this week.Where there's Trump, there's trouble. The US president-elect is threatening tariffs. This could spell disaster for emerging market issuers but, as we discover, panic is yet to set in. We explain why.Our final fight is in the equity capital markets where investors are giving sellers no clues as to their interest in new listings. That makes every deal more risky. We investigate how to break the impasse.

Send us a text◆ The challenge for SSA issuers next year ◆ German banks and the commercial property millstone ◆ Hybrid hot streak explainedSSA bonds in euros have widened against swaps by quite some way in recent months. That will present a big challenge for the asset class's smaller issuers next year. We explain how the market will find a new clearing level.German banks - two in particular - have suffered from investor fears over exposure to commercial property. Those fears have abated over 2024 but this week there was a deal that suggested a mild degree of terror lingers. We investigate.Finally, there has been a spate of corporate hybrid debt issuance lately. We find out why and whether there is more to come.

Send us a text◆ Donald Trump's threat to ESG finance in the US ◆ Why ‘woke capitalism' won't be put to bed ◆ UK auto ABS faces up to compensation crisisOne of the biggest areas of conflict in US politics over the next four years — and indeed, over the past four — will be over environmental, social and governance matters. Donal Trump's administration will likely be no fan of what its supporters sometimes call “woke capitalism”.But whether this spells disaster for environment and for ESG capital markets remains to be seen. Although the Republicans have a firm grip on the federal government, a deep dive into ESG in the US reveals that they are unlikely to be able to have everything their own way.Meanwhile, a ruling that may entitle UK car buyers to billions of pounds worth of compensation from the banks and other firms that financed their wheels could have negative consequences for the auto ABS market. We take the scenic route in examining the situation. 

Send us a text◆ Trump triumphs, Scholz slumps, rates roil◆ Credit issuers off to the races◆ Rates issuers contend with unprecedented Bund-swap inversionThe underlying movements between benchmark rates and bond yields are rocking the capital markets. Why? Well, this week the blame could be laid squarely at the door of politics.Donald Trump's resounding victory in the US presidential race means the world's economic currents are about to shift, turbo charging some areas and threatening others. Meanwhile, the collapse of Germany's government helped to push Bund yields above euro swap rates for the first time ever.Both these things have driven big changes in the value of one asset class in the bond market against another, affecting how much investors want to buy them. We explain the changes underway in SSA, covered, FIG and corporate bonds and what they mean for issuers in the weeks and months ahead.

Send us a text◆ What Trump or Harris mean for EM sovereign issuers ◆ The outlook for UK capital markets after the Budget ◆ Creditors turn on each other in Thames Water sagaIn a year of elections, now comes the big one — the US votes on November 5 for either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump as its next president. Whoever wins, and whichever of the Democrats or Republicans ends up controlling Congress, the effect of the results will be felt around the world, including in its capital markets.We focus on one group of borrowers for whom the result can make or break their bond market access: emerging market sovereigns. We discuss the effect a Trump or Harris presidency will likely have on their funding access and why.The UK's new Labour government revealed its first Budget this week. We examine how the event affected the Gilt market and look more broadly at the outlook for equities, M&A and investment banking in the country.Finally, an update on the latest twist in Thames Water's debt saga as different groups of creditors launched alternative and competing proposals to lend the company more money.

Send us a text◆ New CEO revamps HSBC to be leaner and meaner ◆ What markets think of idea to make UK water sector non-profit ◆ The swap spread dynamic hammering SSA bondsNew HSBC boss Georges Elhedery is restructuring the bank. It's what new CEOs do; and it has certainly been tried at HSBC before, with mixed results. But plenty of people think this time could be different. We explain why Elhedery's plan could work and what the motivations are behind it.A corporate restructuring idea that received a less enthusiastic reception was one to make the UK's troubled water companies — privately owned — operate as non-profits. The sector is in crisis and requires huge investment. The thought is that money previously funnelled into private hands by way of dividends should be used to pay for it. We talk through the ramifications and the reaction in capital markets.Finally, we look into the accelerating tightening of the spread between Bund yields and interest rate swaps in euros and why this could cause a headache for supranational and agency bond issuers.

Send us a text◆ Iconic NYC spot powers CMBS revival ◆ Gilt market braces for Labour Budget ◆ Banks plan bonds for November undaunted by US electionThe US CMBS market lapped up its biggest deal of the year this week, backed by loans on New York's famous Rockefeller Center. We look into what the deal tells us about the revival of offices and the pipeline for the CMBS market, which has been troubled for years by changing working practices and high interest rates.In the UK, the Gilt market is gearing up for the new government's first Budget, due at the end of the month. The government says there is a £20bn hole in the public finances and that it wants to invest. But how much extra Gilt issuance can the market stand? We find out.Finally, the big risk event of the year for capital markets — the US election on November 5 — does not appear to be causing quite as much peril as it did earlier in the year, to the extent that Europe's banks are already planning to bring deals in its immediate aftermath across the capital stack.

Send us a text◆ T+1 is coming but is it worth the hassle? ◆ Despite appearances, bank bond issuers are not getting it all their own way ◆ Where the EU slots into the reshuffled SSA packThe UK has launched a draft framework for settling securities trades a day after deals are done — T+1 settlement. The EU is expected to follow, with both markets aiming to catch-up the US, which cut settlement time down to one day in May. But not everyone is thrilled at the prospect as they face up to the burden of paying for everything required to make it happen.In the FIG market, banks seemingly have the upper hand over investors but there was plenty this week to suggest that they cannot simply do whatever funding they want at a price of their choosing. We look at the treacherous undercurrents at work.Finally, we revisit a story from last week's show where we explored how the landscape of the European government bond market is changing. Well, no story about the SSA market is complete without considering where the EU fits in. In the week in which it executed another blockbuster syndication, we investigate where the jumbo-sized issuer sits — something it has been urging the market to consider for a long time, itself.

Send us a text◆ The new pecking order in eurozone government bonds ◆ Can the bond market build Britain? ◆ UniCredit v Commerzbank: after Orcel's gambit, the Orlopp defenceEverything you thought you knew about eurozone government bonds is wrong. Well, maybe not quite everything but certainly big shifts have taken place in how the market views the creditworthiness of different sovereigns with Spain, for example, now trading tighter than France for the first time in 16 years. We look at the shifting dynamics and what is driving them.The UK's new Labour government, meanwhile, wants to build more houses. The country's housing associations will have a key role to play in that but can they fund everything they need to for that in the bond market? We look into their options.Finally, we bring an update on the latest twist in UniCredit's attempt to take Commerzbank over as the latter's new CEO builds her defence.

Send us a text◆ Emerging market and financial institution bonds on fire after Fed cut ◆ Huge demand spurs massive issuance ◆ But signs of weakness appear in corporates and public sector bonds Markets were unsure what they wanted from the Federal Reserve, but the 50bp rate cut it doled out last week turned out to be just the ticket. In credit markets, all cares and qualms have been forgotten, in one wild party of risk-taking and risk-issuing.Emerging market issuers of all classes, from Saudi Aramco and Abu Dhabi wealth fund ADQ to Agrobank of Uzbekistan have been piling greedily into the market, making up for two lean years of minimal issuance. Deals are flying, making even these usually slow and wary issuers scramble to put issues together.If you thought banks had done masses of funding and didn't need any more, think again —there is an additional tier one capital festival going on in the US, with half this year's issuance having come since August. Santander, which trumpeted having finished its funding for the year in June, found space for another €3bn, though it promises not to return to euros again till next year.It's a strong market for corporate bonds, too, but banks have noticed a big rise in investors getting price-sensitive and dropping out of orderbooks. Deals are still going well, but it's an early sign of fatigue and oversupply.And the more cerebral public sector bond market is fretting. Euro deals just aren't going well and spreads have widened markedly. There is still the dollar market, but something isn't right in Europe. Is it France?PLUS a brief interview with Stefan Wintels, CEO of KfW.

Send us a text◆ The new rate cycle begins at last ◆ Can Deutsche Bank avoid being overtaken by UniCredit? ◆ Carmakers in trouble ◆ The DLT help no one wantedUniCredit's stealth raid to grab 9% of Commerzbank last week threatens Deutsche Bank's historic primacy in German banking. What can Deutsche CEO Christian Sewing do about it? We discuss three courses of action — one clearly better than the others.That's not the only trouble in Germany: BMW is having to make a €1bn product recall and Volkswagen might have to close factories in Germany. This week two other companies in the automotive sector, Daimler Truck and Renault's RCI Banque, came to the bond market. We look at how the market treats borrowers when something is amiss in their sector.But the reason this week will go down in history is the first Federal Reserve rate cut since the onset of Covid — the true beginning of the new easing cycle. Markets have known it was coming — now the ride has begun, with a 50bp move that has leapfrogged the European Central Bank and Bank of England. We find out how public sector borrowers are handling the new environment.And there is a dispatch from the blockchain bond market. ‘I'm from the government and I'm here to help,' said the European Union last year — but it hasn't.

Send us a text◆ UniCredit and Orcel quackers for Commerzbank ◆ Draghi aims his bazooka at CMU ◆ A new dawn for corporate hybrid capitalThis week we looked at different types of union in the European Union, from big bank tie-ups to the latest push for Capital Markets Union.Calls for big time M&A in Europe's banking sector have rung out, often unanswered, for decades. But this week, UniCredit bought a chunk of Commerzbank, sparking talk that it will buy the rest.We discuss how UniCredit built its stake, what the consequences will be for Europe's banking industry and the symbolism of rubber ducks.We also delved into ex-ECB president and Italian prime minister Mario Draghi's latest call for Capital Markets Union. We discuss why he thinks it hasn't happened yet, and how he think it might come to be.Finally, we look into new types of corporate hybrid bonds and why a deal from Bayer this week could herald a new era for the product.

Send us a text◆ Corporate bond issuers swarm on new measure of success to chagrin of their banks ◆ An utter riot at one end of the credit spectrum for bank debt... ◆ ... while investors take their sweet time at the other endIssuers in the European corporate bond market are beginning to fixate on the amount they are able to move pricing in their favour when they bring a new deal to market as a key marker of the trade's success. But just how good an indicator is that? Certainly the banks that connect these issuers with investors by running these deals don't think much of it. We look at the pros and cons of this latest fad.We also took a look at the bond market landscape for financial institutions. Banks bringing their most expensive and riskiest deals to market — additional tier one capital — found a red hot market this week. But at the other end of the scale, there is a sense that ultra-safe covered bonds are proving a harder sell. We examine the market dynamics.

Send us a text◆ Slovenia debut emblematic of issuers tapping Japanese market despite carry trade chaos ◆ Being all things to all investors in the covered bond market ◆ Corporate issuers keep it short and sweetThis week we take an in-depth look at the techniques bond issuers are using in the race to get as much funding done before the US election. Benchmark issuance resumed early this year after the summer lull and it is clear that issuers are keen to get their bonds sold as quickly as possible. We focussed on three tactics.One was investor diversification. Slovenia made its debut in the Samurai market this week but it is not alone among what have traditionally been considered emerging market sovereigns in doing so. Mexico was a recent issuer and there are plenty of countries in the pipeline. We examine the attractions and difficulties of the Japanese market, especially in light of the recent market volatility caused by the Bank of Japan putting up rates and the effect that had on the so-called yen carry trade.We also looked into the diminishing demand for long-dated debt. Bonds with long tenors were a hot ticket all year but demand has dwindled of late. We find out why through the lens of the corporate bond market and what issuers are doing to adjust.In the covered bond market a third tactic was in play: appealing to as many investors at possible at once. TD priced a slug of covered bond issuance in euros this week that you would more commonly find in the dollar market for unsecured debt. We discuss what the Canadian issuer was trying to achieve, whether it succeeded and if the technique will catch on.

Send us a Text Message.◆ Why benchmark issuance has resumed earlier than usual ◆ What lies ahead for capital markets ◆ African issuers switch out of loans to bondsUnpredictable weather is increasingly a feature of modern times. Indeed, as GlobalCapital recorded this week's show, summer appeared to have ended abruptly in its corner of the UK, with distinctly autumnal weather dampening both the pavements and the mood despite there still being a chunk of August to go.The bond market was also looking distinctly unseasonal this week too, as issuers across asset classes resumed public benchmark bond issuance early compared to most years. We look at what got done, the health of the market and why issuers have gone early.We also discuss what African borrowers are planning as they switch from loan funding to bond markets and what is driving that behaviour. Plus the latest from defaulted Ethiopia's negotiations with creditors.

Send us a Text Message.Banks have started to reveal how they will restructure the pay of front office staff following the removal of the bonus cap in the UK. We investigate who will benefit from the new rules (spoiler alert: it's probably the banks).Recent market volatility has thrown up opportunities for corporate issuers. Firstly, we discuss why we are about to see more US companies issuing bonds in euros.Then we travel to the US convertible bond market where we delve into a new debt package for the airline JetBlue, which resulted in a plunging share price and a credit rating downgrade.

Send us a Text Message.◆ Issuers and investors look for clues after violent price swings ◆ Which borrowers will lead autumn deal spree ◆ How pricing has shifted in primary marketThere are moments that change what is to come. When poor US employment data and corporate earnings, and a rise in Japanese interest rates last week sent the markets into a tailspin at the start of this one, it changed how issuers will approach the capital markets when issuance volumes start to ramp up later this month. And this year, the autumn issuance window is particularly important with the fractious US election threatening to make October and November an ill advised time to be in the capital markets with lots of funding to do.We discuss how this week's turbulence has changed the picture for borrowers making plans for the rest of the year in terms of timing and pricing of deals. As one of the characters in Alan Bennett's play The History Boys notes, there are times when events force people down a different course — "and here history rattled over the points", he says. Was this week one where the capital markets headed off down a different track to the one they thought they were on? We find out.

Send us a Text Message.◆ First eurozone government sells bond on distributed ledger ◆ The rate cutting wheel turns fasterMaking innovations a reality is partly about who does them, so the first eurozone sovereign issuer selling a bond on a blockchain is a milestone that takes the market up a notch in credibility.GlobalCapital's reporters discuss their findings after speaking to Slovenia's treasury this week about why it wanted to take the lead among peers by trialling this new technology with a €30m four month bond. Other sovereign borrowers told us they were content ― for now ― to watch from the sidelines.Slovenia chose the Banque de France's solution, wanting a system in which both legs of the trade were fully tokenised.Meanwhile, conventional bond markets have been gripped by central bank fever again, as the Bank of England joined the European Central Bank on the rate cutting path. Although the Federal Reserve held rates, it was seen as a dovish hold. That leaves the public sector bond market raring to get started on issuing ― but will it find suitable windows?

Send us a Text Message.◆ Ukraine restructures $20bn of bonds ◆ Excitement in digital bonds ◆ Is UK water going down the plughole?Swiftly after Ukraine was invaded by Russia, it agreed a two year suspension of debt service with bond investors. That expires on August 1. While many thought Ukraine would negotiate an extension, it has chosen instead to do a full restructuring, issuing new bonds in exchange for the old. We explore why, and whether this was a wise move.We are reaching the mid-point of the European Central Bank's trials of distributed ledger technology for financial markets, including bonds ― a festival of experimentation in which banks, clearing houses, central banks and tech firms are trying different ways to get bond deals on to blockchains. There are strong hints we are about to get the first DLT bond from a eurozone sovereign.Supplying the most basic commodity, water, as a regulated monopoly sounds fairly straightforward, and not likely to generate a lot of credit risk. But Thames Water was downgraded to junk by Moody's this week. If S&P follows suit, the once unthinkable will have happened: a UK water company breaching its licence due to credit weakness. How will the capital markets react?

Send us a Text Message.◆ UN circles banks on circular economy ◆ Topping out on Turkey ◆ CLOs: summer recess or summer resets?ESG capital markets are undergoing another revolution. The UN is beckoning banks to police their corporate clients' transition to being part of the circular economy. But what is the circular economy and are other shapes available? How can banks put pressure on businesses to better manage resources? We explain all.Turkey's bond issuers have absolutely obliterated the record for volume of bond issuance from the country this year. We discuss what led to this renaissance and what will affect supply and demand for Turkish bonds for the rest of the year.The European CLO market is also running at a hectic place, with deal resets galore set to ruin everyone's summer holiday plans. We discover the interesting market dynamics at play that are driving such a busy spell.

Send us a Text Message.◆ Political shift threatens Paris's growing status ◆ The liberation of securitization in Europe as Macron weakened ◆ Bond issuance returns, mostlyAs new parliaments form after the EU, UK and in particular, French elections, we uncover how, despite each poll resulting in the widely expected outcome, capital markets might never be the same again.Paris's remarkable rise as a capital markets hub at London's expense after Brexit has been staggering. But will an emboldened left wing in the French parliament make life tougher for the tens of thousands of market participants — and their employers — that have lately made the French capital their home?French president Emmanuel Macron, not only championed Paris as a financial centre but has also been a driving force behind the push for relaxing EU securitization regulation. We look into whether his weakened mandate spells doom for that regulatory push. We also examine who will be picking up the baton in the EU and UK political arenas.Finally, it was no surprise to see issuance come roaring back this week once the polls were done. But we discovered that not every issuer was able to get the funding it wanted.

Send us a Text Message.◆ UK ousts Tories from power... ◆ ... setting up final round of French elections as only bar to primary market revival ◆ EM debt restructurings: balancing what creditors demand with what voters needThis week, we looked once again at the intersection of politics and capital markets. The Labour Party, as predicted, won the UK general election by a landslide, with departing prime minister Rishi Sunak on his way to Buckingham Palace to resign as prime minister as we recorded.But what does the outcome mean for debt markets? Well, it may not matter as much as what is set to happen in France over the weekend, which has the final round of parliamentary elections. We discuss the likely outcomes and ramifications of those and how issuers will approach the bond market in their aftermath next week.Meanwhile, although further news of progress with emerging market sovereign debt restructurings might be encouraging for the asset class, we note that the recent violent protests in Kenya underscore the difficulty in balancing the demands of international creditors with the needs of citizens for governments in debt distress.

Send us a Text Message.◆ Natixis's sometimes requited love affair with elite M&A bankers ◆ What the French election could to ESG, and to the bank bond marketWhen a posse of high-powered Paris dealmakers threatened to walk out of Natixis because they were being treated like “just another employee”, rivals said ‘I told you so'. They were sure Natixis's unique way of doing M&A banking was falling apart.Nine months later, not so. France's fourth largest investment bank, owned by the mutual savings bank group BPCE, is sticking to its plan ― and doubling down. Natixis's ploy is, rather than trying to build its own M&A department, buying stakes in a growing network of independent boutiques. As investment banking correspondent David Rothnie explains, the key to managing this potentially unruly throng is flexibility.Before that, we look with corporate debt editor Mike Turner at how investors are pouring money into environmental, social and governance bond funds this year, and how that is playing out for issuers.And with the first round of the French parliamentary election coming this weekend, bank finance editor Atanas Dinov explores what the outcome could do to French access to the capital markets, especially for banks.

Send us a Text Message.◆ Banks need a bond market leader, just not a French one ◆ From Golden Goose to lame duck ◆  CMBS problems, rise of solar ABSEurope's banks have been unwilling or unable to issue bonds since French president Emmanuel Macron sent the markets into a tailspin a couple of weeks ago by calling parliamentary elections. We explain why the uncertainty the election is causing is so bad for so many bond issuers, and also which banks can restart issuance in their market.We also look at a triumphant return to sustainability-linked bond issuance for Enel, the Italian power company which created the structure. But it wasn't all good news from the country this week. Golden Goose, the maker of expensive trainers, pulled it IPO. We examine why.In securitization, we looked into problems in the commercial real estate sector that are hitting investors but rather more cheerily, we find out why solar ABS might be coming to Europe.

◆ Politics panic slaps SSAs, FIG but what of corporate bonds? ◆ EU denied its wish ◆ Introducing Primary Market MonitorWell, you can't say we didn't warn you. On last week's show we talked about European elections and the likelihood of volatility following the ECB's historic rate cut.Et voila!French president Emmanuel Macron's decision to call snap parliamentary elections in the wake of far-right successes in the EU equivalent has caused havoc in bond markets this week. SSA and FIG issuers abandoned deal plans. We discuss which bits of the market are still working, just how bad this bout of volatility is compared to recent times and what new issuance prospects are for the immediate future.The EU didn't have a vintage week as a borrower either. It priced a successful syndication, though as we discover, it lacked the glossy finish of other deals. Then it was denied access to MSCI's government bond indices. We reveal why this matters so much to the borrower, and the way forward.Finally, GlobalCapital is about to launch a new data product: Primary Market Monitor. We tell you what it is, what it does and how you can get an early look at it.