Moody's Talks - Inside Emerging Markets

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Moody’s experts from around the globe join host Rahul Ghosh to discuss key economic, financial and credit trends shaping emerging markets. Published by Moody's Investors Service.

Moody's Investors Service


    • Nov 25, 2024 LATEST EPISODE
    • monthly NEW EPISODES
    • 16m AVG DURATION
    • 110 EPISODES


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    Latest episodes from Moody's Talks - Inside Emerging Markets

    Emerging market credit conditions will continue gradual, fragile improvement in 2025

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 25, 2024 20:52


    Corporate and sovereign default rates are decreasing as GDP growth, slowing inflation and monetary easing aid debt management. But EMs face a number of credit risks including potential US tariffs.Guest: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's RatingsHost: Colin Ellis, Managing Director, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's RatingsRelated Research:Emerging Markets – Global: 2025 Outlook - Stable but fragile, with looming credit risks

    How the US election could shape global credit conditions

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 10, 2024 19:58


    In this joint Big Picture-Emerging Markets Decoded episode, our regional analysts highlight the key US policy areas to watch in Europe, Asia-Pacific and Latin America -- and discuss which economies and sectors could be at risk if policies were to dramatically change.Guests: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings; Gong Cheng, Managing Director, Credit Strategy, Moody's Ratings; Ariane Ortiz-Bollin, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Credit Strategy, Moody's RatingsHost: William Foster, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings

    Positive credit stories emerging in a handful of Sub-Saharan African countries

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 2, 2024 17:19


    Institutional reforms, policy reversals, debt restructurings and the prospect of new hydrocarbon production are leading to gradual improvement in some sovereigns' creditworthiness from weak levels.Guest: John Walsh, Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's RatingsHost: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's RatingsRelated Research:Sovereign – Sub-Saharan Africa: Governance is key to realising credit benefits for new hydrocarbon producersSovereign – Sub-Saharan Africa: Institutional reforms are supporting creditworthiness for select sovereigns

    Geopolitical risk shapes creditworthiness for host of APAC governments

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 16, 2024 14:30


    Risk exposure is highest for those directly involved in the region's three main hotspots. But the knock-on economic effects of the tensions have the potential to hurt, or help, other APAC governments.Guest: Anushka Shah, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's RatingsHost: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's RatingsRelated Research:Sovereigns – Asia-Pacific: Geopolitical risk shapes creditworthiness for a host of governments 

    Corporate credit quality in India, Indonesia remains robust despite sectoral differences

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 2, 2024 14:30


    India's large domestic market shields its companies from external shocks, whereas Indonesia's export-dependent commodity sector prompts government efforts to diversify growth.Guests: Rachel Chua, VP-Senior Analyst; Sweta Patodia, AVP-AnalystHost: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's RatingsRelated Research: Nonfinancial Companies – India and Indonesia: Credit quality will remain robust, even as earnings trajectory divergesNonfinancial Companies – Southeast Asia Dollar bond issuance will regain momentum when US interest rates begin to fallNonfinancial Companies – India: Offshore funding indispensable despite improving domestic liquidity

    Latin American national oil companies face hurdles in reducing greenhouse gas emissions

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 19, 2024 14:39


    Challenges include the region's reliance on fossil fuels to meet energy demand amid population growth, the companies' weak financials and governments' reliance on revenue from oil and gas producers.Guests: Roxana Munoz and Carolina Chimenti, both Vice President - Senior Analysts, Corporate Finance Group, Moody's RatingsHost: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's RatingsRelated research:Oil & Gas – Latin America & Caribbean: National oil companies struggle to reconcile governments' emission-reduction goals

    Central bank push to tame inflation boosts credit quality of Turkish sovereign, companies

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 5, 2024 14:24


    Rate hikes in Turkiye have slowed inflation, and confidence in the country's currency is increasing. The sovereign's creditworthiness is improving as a result, along with that of Turkish companies.Guests: Kathrin Muehlbronner, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings; Iker Ballestero Barrutia, Analyst, Corporate Finance Group, Moody's RatingsHost: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's RatingsRelated Research:Moody's Ratings takes rating actions on eight Turkish corporates following upgrade of Turkiye sovereign ratingGovernment of Turkiye – B1 positive: Update following upgrade to B1, outlook remains positiveGovernment of Turkiye: Macro-financial monitor: CBRT tightening shows first results, but more is needed to moderate inflationMoody's Ratings upgrades Turkiye's ratings to B1, maintains positive outlookGovernment of Turkiye: Announced policy shift is credit positive but implementation comes with challenges

    Kenya protests highlight transmission of social risk to sovereign creditworthiness

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 22, 2024 13:50


    The opposition to proposed tax hikes impedes the government's ability to increase revenue and reduce debt. Similar risks exist for other emerging market sovereigns too.Guest: David Rogovic, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's RatingsHost: Scott Phillips, Head of Emerging Markets, Credit Strategy and Research, Moody's RatingsRelated Research:Moody's Ratings downgrades Kenya's ratings to Caa1; maintains negative outlookGovernment of Kenya: Protests against Finance Bill's tax measures challenge government's fiscal consolidation strategyGovernment of Kenya: Kenya's IMF agreement bolsters short-term liquidity; fiscal consolidation is key to improving credit qualitySovereigns – Sub-Saharan Africa: 2024 Outlook - Negative on large debt maturities amid tight funding conditions  

    Steady GDP growth continues for emerging markets, with wide variation by country

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 9, 2024 19:57


    We have revised our aggregate EM forecast up slightly to 3.9% for 2024-25 to reflect faster-than-expected growth in some of the largest EMs so far this year. Disinflation continues but is slowing.Speaker: Madhavi Bokil, Senior Vice President, Credit Strategy at Moody's RatingsHost: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Emerging Markets at Moody's RatingsRelated Research:Emerging Markets – Global: GDP growth stays solid; disinflation slowsGlobal Macro Outlook 2024-25 (May 2024 update): G-20 momentum persists in 2024 with disinflation and cooler growth ahead

    South Africa's creditworthiness with a new coalition government

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 24, 2024 12:30


    The creation of a coalition government following 29 May elections will likely support broad policy continuity and reforms, but the risk of government instability and ineffectiveness is significant.Guest: Aurelien Mali, Vice President-Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's RatingsHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Credit Strategy & Research, Moody's RatingsRelated research:Government of South Africa: National unity government will likely support broad policy continuity and the pursuit of economic reforms  

    Views from Moody's Global Emerging Markets 2024 virtual event

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 11, 2024 14:32


    Moody's Ratings experts discuss the fragile recovery and new threats in EMs, including macro conditions, default trends, credit risks for sovereigns and corporates, and bright spots.Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Moody's RatingsRelated Research:Fragile recovery in EM credit conditions will continueEmerging Markets – Global: Local currency bond markets are growing fast, a credit-positive trend for debt issuersSovereigns – Emerging Markets: Favorable financing conditions will not solve structural credit challengesGovernment-Related Issuers – Emerging Markets: GRIs' standalone credit strength and government support vary widely across EMsBanks – Emerging Markets: Asset-quality risk is receding but remains high in several countriesTo learn more, visit the Emerging Markets topic page.

    Frontier markets: higher risk, higher potential returns

    Play Episode Listen Later May 28, 2024 19:20


    Join Scott Phillips, head of EM at Moody's Ratings, and Maciej Woznica, portfolio manager at asset management firm Coeli, for a tour of the least-developed emerging markets.Guest: Maciej Woznica, Portfolio Manager, CoeliHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Moody's RatingsRelated Research:Gradual recovery in emerging market credit conditions will continue (infographic)

    Speculative-grade default rate for emerging market companies improves with macro conditions

    Play Episode Listen Later May 13, 2024 13:56


    The default rate will decline to 3.3% by the end of Q1 2025, far below the peak of nearly 15% at the end of 2022 which was driven by the Russia-Ukraine war and China's property market woes.Guest: Yang Liu, Vice President - Senior Analyst, Moody's RatingsHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Moody's RatingsRelated Research:Corporates – Emerging Markets: EM corporate default rate will fall further in 2024 and approach advanced economy rateDefault Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average

    Middle East: from geopolitical tensions to Islamic finance

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 30, 2024 15:59


    Moody's analysts discuss the increased risk for sovereigns from escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict, and then shift to the growing demand for Islamic finance.Guests: Christian Fang, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings; Badis Shubailat, Assistant Vice President – Analyst, Financial Institutions Group, Moody's RatingsHost: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Emerging Markets, Moody's RatingsRelated research:Tail risks from Israel-Iran conflict pose a major threat to sovereigns regionally and globallyIslamic finance sector will retain strong momentum in 2024Sukuk issuance to decline again in 2024 before stabilizing in 2025Strong US dollar sukuk issuance is positive for companies' capital raising effortsIslamic finance's adoption of blockchain could be beneficial, but faces crucial barriers

    EM macro conditions are improving unevenly as GDP growth stabilizes and inflation slows

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 15, 2024 11:11


    Growth will slow in 2024 then stabilize in 2025 in most emerging markets. We have raised our forecasts for Asia, Central-Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa but lowered them for Latin America.Host: Scott Phillips, Head of Emerging Markets, Moody's RatingsSpeaker: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst - Emerging Markets, Moody's Ratings 

    China's push to shift economic growth engines faces hurdles but will benefit some EMs

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 1, 2024 15:35


    It will take time and effort for sectors like tech and EVs to drive China's GDP growth, and geopolitics is a risk. But emerging markets supplying relevant goods and services to China stand to benefit.Guest: Gong Cheng, Managing Director - Credit Strategy, Moody's RatingsHost: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst - Emerging Markets, Moody's Ratings

    Digging into key credit stories for emerging market sovereign investors across the globe

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 18, 2024 20:37


    China's 2024 policy priorities and influence across Asia, the state of European consumers, Romania's fiscal deficit, Argentina's economy and Ecuador's state of emergency are among the top stories.Guests: Lillian Li, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody's Ratings; Ruosha Li, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Moody's Ratings; Ariane Ortiz-Bollin, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody's RatingsHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director – Emerging Markets, Moody's Ratings

    A focus on West Africa, where bright spots shine through political, security and climate risks

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 6, 2024 15:10


    Positive developments include strong GDP growth in Côte d'Ivoire and Senegal, a lifting of sanctions on Niger, and a few countries tapping international bond markets so far this year.Speaker: Mickaël Gondrand, Assistant Vice President-Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service

    State-contingent debt instruments gain traction in restructurings as sovereign defaults rise

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 20, 2024 14:56


    These instruments provide flexibility on debt-service payments and can help bridge differences in restructuring talks. Protracted talks delay critical structural reforms and increase default risk.  Guest: David Rogovic, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors ServiceRelated Research:State-contingent debt instruments can aid debt restructuring, but can carry fiscal risks

    Emerging market central banks lower rates while US Fed signals rate cuts are not imminent

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 5, 2024 12:54


    Recent interest rate cuts in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Hungary are among the signs that EM financial conditions are improving. The primary market for EM bond issuance is likely to remain strong.Hosts: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director - Emerging Markets at Moody's Investors Service; Vittoria Zoli, Analyst - Emerging Markets at Moody's Investors Service

    Middle East, North Africa credit conditions are stable in 2024 despite elevated geopolitical risks

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 22, 2024 16:32


    Conditions are more stable for sovereigns, banks and companies in the Gulf Cooperation Council region than in North Africa and Levant. An escalation of the Israel-Hamas military conflict is main risk.Speakers: Christian Fang, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group at Moody's Investors Service; Badis Shubailat, Assistant Vice President – Analyst, Financial Institutions Group at Moody's Investors Service; Rehan Akbar, Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance Group at Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Emerging Markets at Moody's Investors Service

    Five top-of-mind credit stories for EM sovereign investors in 2024

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 8, 2024 17:17


    Redefault risk in Argentina, general elections in South Africa, financial conditions and debt affordability in Egypt, monetary policy in Turkiye and economic growth in China are top stories this year.Speaker: Marie Diron, Managing Director - Global Sovereign Risk - Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service

    COP28 climate summit highlights carbon transition risks for emerging markets

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 27, 2023 20:14


    Carbon transition, adaptation to climate change and climate finance – core topics at COP28 – are crucial for EMs because of their exposure to environmental risks and limited capacity to respond.Speakers: Rebecca Karnovitz, VP-SCO – ESG Research & Outreach at Moody's Investors Service; Matt Kuchtyak, VP-Sustainable Finance at Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Natasha Brereton-Fukui, SVP-Global ESG Research at Moody's Investors Service

    Economic considerations underpin stable emerging market 2024 outlook

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 16, 2023 15:06


    EM GDP growth will slow, largely because of China's slowdown. Export-led EMs will suffer from weak global trade activity, but domestic-focused EMs will fare better. Pockets of inflation risk exist.Speaker: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service

    Emerging market central banks reassess pace of monetary easing as US Fed holds rates for longer

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 30, 2023 12:13


    Continued high US interest rates, strong US dollar and possible rise in commodity prices mean EM central banks are likely to recalibrate the pace, if not the depth, of their interest rate cuts.Speaker: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors ServiceRelated research:Federal Reserve on hold for longer implies slower pivot to policy easing for some EMs

    A focus on emerging markets as bond yields and oil prices oscillate, plus a deep dive on Egypt

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 16, 2023 20:09


    This podcast episode examines the effect of interest-rate and oil-price volatility on EM, inflation in Asia and Central-Eastern Europe, monetary policy in LatAm and Egypt's weakening credit quality.Speakers: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service and Elisa Parisi-Capone, Vice President - Senior Analyst - Sovereigns, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service

    How recent US, UK, euro area monetary policy decisions, US dollar strength affect emerging markets

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 2, 2023 23:34


    Moody's strategists discuss recent central bank decisions, EM financial conditions, US dollar strength and EM currency weakness, Poland's election and India's inclusion in an EM government bond index.Speakers: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst -- Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service and Steffen Dyck, Senior Vice President -- Sovereigns, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director -- Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service

    Disinflation continues in EMs; Mexico's industrial production rises; Gabon's outlook turns negative

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 18, 2023 20:07


    Moody's analysts discuss the country-specific reasons inflation is slowing in emerging markets; why Mexico's industrial production is increasing; and how Gabon's coup factored into its outlook change.Speakers: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst – Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service and Mickaël Gondrand, Analyst – Sovereigns, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director – Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service

    Stress in China's property sector has potential knock-on effects across multiple sectors

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 8, 2023 19:07


    In this episode, Moody's analysts discuss the reasons for the current property-sector stress and the potential effects for developers, banks that finance them, local authorities and the economy.Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director – Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service

    More emerging market sovereigns pursue debt-for-nature swaps to reduce debt burdens

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 23, 2023 24:41


    Moody's analysts discuss the growing use – and credit effect – of these transactions amid some sovereigns' debt sustainability concerns and a need to invest in climate initiatives.Speakers: Thorsten Nestmann, Senior Vice President - Group Credit Officer, Sovereigns and Christopher Bredholt, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Public Project and Infrastructure Finance, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director – Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service

    Emerging Markets insights and view ahead with Kojo Amoo-Gottfried

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 10, 2023 28:03


    BSI Fund Chief Investment Officer Kojo Amoo-Gottfried joins Emerging Markets Decoded to discuss emerging markets topics including the macro perspective and investor sentiment toward the asset class. Speaker: Kojo Amoo-Gottfried, Chief Investment Officer, BSI FundHosts: Scott Phillips, AMD – Emerging Markets, Moody's Investor's Service; Vittoria Zoli, Analyst – Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service

    China's soft economic recovery raises contingent liability risks from LGFVs

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 26, 2023 19:41


    Moody's analysts discuss the economic and credit outlook for China, including the role of local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) and their debt burdens, and the latest on the property sector.Speakers: Lillian Li, VP-Senior Credit Officer, Moody's Investors Service; Jessie Tung, VP-Senior Credit Officer, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst – Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service

    South Africa power cuts dim economic outlook

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 13, 2023 22:38


    Moody's analysts discuss the credit effects of South Africa's energy crisis, including macro and social implications, as well as the government's plans to address the crisis.Speakers: Aurelien Mali, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody's Investors Service; Neil Griffiths-Lambeth, Associate Managing Director, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst – Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service

    Debt sustainability is at risk for frontier market sovereigns

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 22, 2023 15:45


    Moody's analysts discuss updates to long-term sovereign debt forecasts, accounting for recent market conditions, including higher inflation and interest rates.Speaker: Lucie Villa, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director – Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors ServiceRelated Research:Frontier markets' debt sustainability at stake; political economy drives debt paths for some

    Moody's Global Emerging Markets Summit 2023: High hopes, higher risks?

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 7, 2023 26:12


    Special guests Lee C. Buchheit and David Lubin share their insights on emerging market sovereign debt crises, the US dollar's future as a global reserve currency, China's evolving economy and more.Speakers: Lee C. Buchheit, Professor, University of Edinburgh; David Lubin, Head of EM Economics, Citi, Associate Fellow at Chatham HouseHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director – Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service

    Is India the next emerging market powerhouse?

    Play Episode Listen Later May 24, 2023 16:21


    Moody's analysts discuss India's growing manufacturing and infrastructure sectors, favorable demographics and potential to achieve significant scale across multiple sectors in the next decade. Speaker: Kaustubh Chaubal, Senior Vice President – Corporate Finance, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director – Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors ServiceRelated research:Growing industrial sector will drive economy, but may face investment hurdles

    Emerging markets with nature-dependent sectors face natural capital depletion risks

    Play Episode Listen Later May 17, 2023 15:45


    Moody's analysts explore credit risks related to natural capital and biodiversity loss, why emerging markets are more at risk than advanced economies and which sectors are most exposed.Speakers: Lucia Lopez, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody's Investors Service; Rahul Ghosh, MD – Sustainable Finance, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Kelvin Dalrymple, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody's Investors Service

    Cost-of-living crisis weakens social contracts across the globe, adding to global economic risks

    Play Episode Listen Later May 3, 2023 11:20


    Moody's analysts explore credit risks related to the social contract, and how a weakening in the contract is often associated with credit deterioration in the countries where it takes place.Speakers: Elisa Parisi-Capone, VP – Senior Analyst, Moody's Investors Service; David Rogovic, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Shirin Mohammadi, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody's Investors Service

    Emerging market corporate credit quality better placed to handle next downturn

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 19, 2023 15:43


    Moody's analysts explore two downside scenarios to frame the likely impact of a US recession on EM corporates, combining lessons from past downturns with the many changes to the credit landscape in the years since.Speakers: Kelvin Dalrymple, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody's Investors Service; Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, AMD – Global Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service

    World Bank-IMF Spring Meetings will cover range of emerging market credit topics

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 5, 2023 19:09


    Moody's analysts explore the key themes and policy issues likely to be at the center of the upcoming World Bank and IMF Spring Meetings, including banking turmoil, tightening credit, ESG and more.Speaker: Marie Diron, Managing Director – Sovereign Risk, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director – Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service

    Mark Zandi on Fed rate hike, banking stress, recession risks and implications for emerging markets

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 23, 2023 12:17


    The chief economist of Moody's Analytics joins host Shirin Mohammadi to discuss the US Federal Reserve's recent rate decision and response to banking stress, recession risks and more. Speaker: Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody's AnalyticsHost: Shirin Mohammadi, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody's Investors Service

    US bank failures have ripple effects worldwide

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 17, 2023 14:25


    Moody's analysts discuss recent developments in the US and European banking systems, the implications for monetary policy and potential spillovers to emerging markets across the globe. Speakers: Donald Robertson, AMD – Financial Institutions, Moody's Investors Service; Nick Hill, MD – Financial Institutions, Moody's Investors Service; Eugene Tarzimanov, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody's Investors Service; Scott Phillips, AMD – Global Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service Hosts: Shirin Mohammadi, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody's Investors Service; Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody's Investors Service For related research, visit the Global Banking System Outlook topic page. As financial pressures mount in a time of higher rates and slowing growth, Moody's will continue to share our analysis of evolving trends and repercussions for banks around the world.

    Islamic finance set to continue its steady expansion in 2023

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 8, 2023 19:23


    In this episode of Moody's Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Nitish Bhojnagarwala of the Financial Institutions team and special guest Sohail Ali of DLA Piper join host Scott Phillips to discuss the outlook for Islamic finance across emerging markets. Plus, they dive into the intersection of ESG and Islamic finance, and the risks associated with “green” sukuk issuance. Related research:Islamic finance sector will remain resilient despite tight global financial conditions

    Will Nigeria's presidential elections affect credit conditions for banks and the sovereign?

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 6, 2023 13:19


    In this episode of Moody's Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Ighosime Oyofo and Mik Kabeya of the Financial Institutions team and Lucie Villa of the Sovereign team join host Scott Phillips to discuss the credit implications of Nigeria's presidential elections, with a focus on the banking system and the sovereign. Related researchGovernment of Nigeria: Election disputes will delay policies to address Nigeria's pressing credit challengesNaira redesign policy creates some operational challenges for Nigerian banks

    Tight financing conditions will continue to challenge frontier markets' credit strength

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 22, 2023 10:30


    In this episode of Moody's Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Scott Phillips of the Global Emerging Markets team joins host Shirin Mohammadi to discuss a recent turn of events for emerging market credit conditions, including some easing in financial conditions, with inflation, yields and spreads all lower than at the end of 2022, despite continued volatility. They explore what recent events mean for debt issuers in emerging and frontier economies and reveal which sovereigns are still at risk of default. Related Research:Tight financing conditions will continue challenging frontier markets' credit strength

    Political unrest adds to credit pressures across Latin America

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 8, 2023 13:57


    In this episode of Moody's Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Jaime Reusche of the Sovereign team joins host Ariane Ortiz-Bollin to discuss the credit implications of political unrest in Peru, how it compares to recent events in Brazil and credit distress in Argentina. Plus, Valeria Azconegui of Moody's Local shares insights from the ground.Related research:Government of Argentina: External market debt buyback amounts to a distressed exchangeGovernment of El Salvador: Second debt buyback amounts to a distressed e:xchange, small transaction amount illustrates liquidity stressGovernment of Brazil: Brazil's political polarization is credit negative

    Despite mixed outlook, Middle East houses one of 2023's few bright spots

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 25, 2023 16:45


    In this episode of Moody's Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Christian Fang and Alex Perjessy of the Sovereign team join host Shirin Mohammadi to discuss the outlook for sovereigns across the Middle East and North Africa. Plus, they explore how recent developments in Iran could affect the rest of the region.Related research:2023 outlook negative as inflation, high interest rates broadly raise credit risks2023 outlook positive as high oil prices bolster finances, provide space for reforms

    Will China's zero-covid policy reversal provide a boon to emerging markets in 2023?

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 11, 2023 15:48


    In this episode of Moody's Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Gene Fang of the Sovereign team joins host Scott Phillips to discuss the outlook for credit conditions in China as it lifts Covid restrictions and reopens its economy, with a special focus on regional and local governments, the property sector, as well as potential implications for other emerging markets. Related research:2023 outlook negative as debt, contingent liabilities build, land sales remain weakSustained slowdown in China will have large spillovers to the rest of APAC and beyondChina Property Focus: Supportive policies will take time to have an impact on sales   

    Lower growth and higher rates will weigh on African issuers

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 14, 2022 19:27


    In this episode of Moody's Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, David Rogovic of the Sovereign team and Mik Kabeya of the Financial Institutions team join host Scott Phillips to discuss credit dynamics in Africa amid the US-Africa Leaders Summit in Washington DC. Plus, Matt Pirnie, Head of Ratings at GCR Ratings joins as a special guest to discuss the biggest risks and potential bright spots facing corporate issuers in Sub-Saharan Africa. 

    Sustained growth slowdown in China would spill over to Asia-Pacific region and beyond

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 30, 2022 10:20


    In this episode of Moody's Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Deborah Tan of the Credit Strategy & Research team joins host Shirin Mohammadi to discuss what a sustained economic growth slowdown in China implies for the rest of the world, particularly the Asia-Pacific region and lower-income countries that rely on Chinese investment flows. 

    Negative global credit conditions will weigh on weaker emerging market debt issuers in 2023

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 16, 2022 18:26


    In this episode of Moody's Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Ariane Ortiz-Bollin of the Global Emerging Markets team joins host Scott Phillips to discuss the 2023 outlook for emerging market credit conditions, with a focus on governments, companies and banks.Related research:2023 Outlook - Negative credit conditions leave weaker debt issuers exposed

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