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Po ile euro i dolar, jakie stopy procentowe w tym roku? Czyli co zdecyduje o powodzeniu złotego i polskich obligacji w czasach powyborczych? Globalni inwestorzy – jak będą patrzeć na powyborczą sytuację w Polsce i co będzie dla nich teraz ważne? Jak ich decyzje wpłyną na polski rynek? We wtorek rano swoimi opiniami dzieli się nami Magdalena Polan, Head of Emerging Markets Macro Research, PGIM Fixed Income, w rozmowie z Robertem Stanilewiczem. Jest też o nowej odsłonie wojny handlowej, paragrafie 899 i komplikującym się związku między amerykańskimi obligacjami a dolarem. Zapraszamy!!
Specjalne Analizy Live w pierwszy poranek po II turze wyborów prezydenckich. Złoty, obligacje, giełda, gospodarka. O powyborczych reakcjach na polskim rynku finansowym. Rozmowa o tym, jakie scenariusze są teraz najbardziej prawdopodobne zdaniem naszych gości. A są nimi: Piotr Kuczyński, analityk rynków finansowych DI Xelion, Kamil Cisowski, dyrektor Zespołu Analiz i Doradztwa Inwestycyjnego w DI Xelion, Marta Petka-Zagajewska, dyrektorka Zespołu Analiz Makroekonomicznych w PKO Banku Polskim, Ignacy Morawski, wicenaczelny i główny ekonomista Pulsu Biznesu, Magdalena Polan, Head of Emerging Markets Macro Research, PGIM Fixed Income, Piotr Szulec, prezes Skarbiec TFI oraz oczywiście Rafał Bogusławski i Robert Stanilewicz. Zapraszamy!!
Often excluded from ESG portfolios on ethical grounds, the defence sector is at the forefront due to current geopolitical tensions. In this episode of Fixed on ESG, we consider whether defence companies should be included in ESG investments, the rising strategic importance of defence, investment barriers, and the potential for ESG-conscious investors to reconsider their exclusion policies. PGIM Fixed Income's James Malone, CFA, ESG Specialist, hosts this discussion with Katharine Neiss, PhD, Deputy Head of Global Economics and Chief European Economist. Recorded on May 6, 2025.
Gościem Roberta Stanilewicza w środę 7 maja 2025 roku, dniu decyzji RPP i Fedu jest przybywająca prosto ze spotkań na samym szczycie finansowego świata (MFW i Banku Światowego) do Analiz LIVE Magdalena Polan, Head of Emerging Markets Macro Research w PGIM Fixed Income (wcześniej między innymi MFW i Goldman Sachs). Czyli chińsko-amerykańskie przeciąganie liny ws. ceł, rosnąca rezerwa wobec dolara jako waluty rezerwowej, cięcia stóp w Ameryce i nie tylko oraz powyborcze reperkusje, czyli niemiecki kanclerz wybrany dopiero w drugim podejściu i Rumunia po wyborach, czyli ryzyko fiskalnego zagalopowania się. Zapraszamy!!
Jason Appleson of PGIM Fixed Income chats with Caitlin Devitt to break down the biggest factors shaping the muni market today, and how institutional investors are preparing for what's next.
Investors are looking to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as one tool to help guide impactful investments. This episode of Fixed on ESG explores the role of the SDGs as a framework for identifying opportunities, SDG-related challenges (e.g. “SDG washing"), the financing gap, methodological issues in assessing contributions, and factors to consider when balancing operational performance with business model alignment. PGIM Fixed Income's Nuvneet Dhillon, CFA, ESG Specialist, hosts this discussion with Armelle de Vienne, Co-Head of ESG Research, and Yacine Rachid, ESG Specialist. Recorded on March 19, 2025.
90 dni pauzy i co dalej? Do czego może doprowadzić eskalacja zwarcia USA – Chiny? Czy Stany Zjednoczone stać na nową zimną wojnę? Czy przez politykę D. Trumpa świat wchodzi na drogę do megakryzysu? W piątek 11 kwietnia rano prosto z Londynu sytuację rynkową i gospodarczą komentuje Magdalena Polan, Head of Emerging Markets Macro Research, PGIM Fixed Income (wcześniej między innymi MFW i Goldman Sachs) w rozmowie z Robertem Stanilewiczem. To, co dzieje się na rynkach głównie obligacji i w makro teraz oraz spojrzenie szersze. Czy rzeczywiście zagranica plądruje Stany Zjednoczone? Jaki będzie wpływ ceł i związanego z nimi zamieszania na świat i USA? Co to oznacza dla banków centralnych, czyli dla stóp procentowych, czyli dla ceny kredytu? Po odpowiedzi zapraszamy do podcastu!
Shifts in interest rates have thrust Liability-Driven Investing (LDI) into the spotlight, reshaping pension plan liabilities and presenting new de-risking opportunities. This episode of the All the Credit® Credit Markets in Transition sub-series examines impacts on funded status, plan sponsor adaptations, and the interplay of structured products and derivatives in portfolio construction. PGIM Fixed Income's Brian Barnhurst, CFA, Head of Global Credit Research, hosts Tom McCartan, FIA, CFA, Multi-Sector Portfolio Manager. Recorded on March 27, 2025.
W środę 26 marca gościem Analiz Live jest Magdalena Polan, Head of Emerging Markets Macro Research, PGIM Fixed Income, która została zasypana gradem pytań przez Roberta Stanilewicza, a potem też Widzów. Czy cła dla amerykańskiej inflacji nie są takie straszne, jak je malowano? Dlaczego ostatnio szef Rezerwy Federalnej opisując możliwe inflacyjne skutki ceł, użył słynnego słowa „transitory” i dlaczego słynny Larry Summers (były sekretarz skarbu) mówi, że J. Powell powinien wysłać to słowo na emeryturę? Czy Donald Trump walczy cłami, czy tylko udaje? Czy Europa wywinie się z taryfowego uścisku USA? O co toczy się gra na walutach? Czy słynny plan Mar-a-Lago accord jest wykonalny? Kto skorzysta, a kto straci na sztucznym osłabieniu dolara, jeśli do niego dojdzie? Kiedy wrócą cięcia stóp w Polsce i USA? Czy obligacje będą drożeć, czy może im przeszkodzić w tym ogromna skala wydatków na kredyt na infrastrukturę i armie w Europie? No i jak inwestorzy w wielkich globalnych firmach patrzą teraz na Turcję? Po odpowiedzi na te pytania zapraszamy do podcastu!
Securitised credit is emerging as a key driver in financing the green transition, offering investors opportunities to support ESG initiatives without sacrificing return. This episode of Fixed on ESG navigates how securitisation helps fund green assets, the challenges of measuring financed emissions, and the evolving regulatory landscape in the U.S. and Europe. We break down the mechanics of green securitisation and discuss how investors can navigate this space. PGIM Fixed Income's Taylor Chatlos, ESG Specialist, hosts this discussion with David Klausner, ESG Specialist, and Edwin Wilches, CFA, Co-Head of Securitised Products. Recorded on March 12, 2025.
Złoty urósł tak, że słychać już płacz eksporterów. Czy polska waluta może być jeszcze silniejsza? Co stoi za dotychczasowym umocnieniem złotego, ale także walut naszego regionu? Dlaczego mamy dość upartą inflację i kiedy należałoby obniżać stopy procentowe? Między innymi o tym w czwartek rano (20 lutego 2025) Robert Stanilewicz rozmawia z Magdaleną Polan, Head of EM Macroeconomic Research w PGIM Fixed Income. Poza tym, a może przede wszystkim, wpływ deklaracji i czynów Donalda Trumpa na gospodarkę ogólnie, a szczególnie na rynki wschodzące, czyli kto naprawdę może oberwać? Co i dlaczego dzieje się z dolarem? Dlaczego od stycznia głównie się osłabia? Te i inne tematy, i oczywiście Wasze pytania i komentarze! Zapraszamy!
Asset-based finance (ABF) has grown in popularity as an attractive alternative to traditional direct lending and its turning heads with those looking to capitalize on investment opportunities. This episode of All the Credit® kicks off our new sub-series, Credit Markets in Transition, with an in-depth look at the rapidly growing ABF sector. We assess ABF's evolution, factors driving the surge in investment, its role within the financial ecosystem, and critical considerations for investors. PGIM Fixed Income's Brian Barnhurst, CFA, Head of Global Credit Research, hosts Edwin Wilches, CFA, Co-Head of Securitized Products. Recorded on January 28, 2025.
Can green bonds—intended to drive sustainability—complicate emissions reporting? This episode of Fixed on ESG explores the complexities of green bonds and their reported emissions. We examine a proposal by the Partnership for Carbon Accounting Financials (PCAF) and highlight issues like vanishing emissions, unallocated proceeds, increased reporting demands, and the need for a comprehensive approach to emissions assessment, while considering the broader implications for investors. PGIM Fixed Income's Taylor Chatlos, ESG Specialist hosts this discussion with John Ploeg, CFA, Co-Head of ESG Research. Recorded on January 23, 2025.
O znaczeniu pierwszych słów i pierwszych posunięć prezydenta USA dla gospodarki i rynków finansowych we wtorek rano Robert Stanilewicz rozmawia z Magdaleną Polan, Head of EM Macroeconomic Research w PGIM Fixed Income. Czy nam się to podoba, czy nie, największym wyzwaniem dla USA są i będą Chiny, które za chwilę będą świętować swój Nowy Rok spod znaku Drewnianego Węża. Komu Trump dobierze się do skóry i czy będą to Chiny? Jak mogą zaskoczyć Chińczycy? Co Trump oznacza dla pozostałych rynków wschodzących? Czy Trump w Białym Domu to wyższa inflacja? Czy Ameryka upadnie przez dług? Czy w Polsce nie będzie już obniżek stóp procentowych? To pytania, na które odpowiedzi znajdziecie w tym podcaście. Zapraszamy!!
Amid global complexities, China's economic outlook presents both challenges and opportunities that are crucial to investment considerations. In this episode of All the Credit®, we weigh possible growth scenarios for China, the impacts of tariffs, private sector confidence, and property sector challenges. We assess the nation's fiscal strategies, rising social unrest, and geopolitical tensions with the U.S. and Taiwan. PGIM Fixed Income's Tom Porcelli, Chief U.S. Economist, hosts Shikeb Farooqui, PhD, Lead Asia Economist. Recorded on January 9, 2025.
SoFi Technologies (SOFI) added to its near 120% year-long rally after finalizing a $525 million personal loan deal with PGIM Fixed Income. George Tsilis notes that the deal will open a "revolving line of credit" for the company that opens the door to company profits. The potential for yield curve compression serves as a headwind, which George says will add price pressure for investors. ======== Schwab Network ======== Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribe Download the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185 Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7 Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watch Watch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-explore Watch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/ Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
Edward Lorenz, a meteorologist and mathematician, formulated a theory called the butterfly effect—based on a hypothetical scenario in which a butterfly, simply by flapping its wings, affects a tornado weeks later. The butterfly effect illustrates how small actions in complex systems can lead to big changes, underscoring the challenges in making forecasts. This is particularly relevant for investors. A complex global economy often takes unexpected turns, and macro disruptions and uncertainty present challenges for those navigating financial markets. But with this knowledge, investors could make better decisions by challenging conventional wisdom and taking a long-term view. The Season 5 premiere of The Outthinking Investor explores how investors can steer through economic volatility and pursue sound portfolio construction for the long run. Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, Boston Consulting Group's Global Chief Economist, and Robert Tipp, PGIM Fixed Income's Chief Investment Strategist, discuss the forces that may drive change in the economy, potential risks to the outlook, how market fears can distract from real long-term consequences, emerging opportunities in fixed-income markets, and structural changes resulting from a higher level of expected interest rates. Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at thought.leadership@pgim.com., or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor. To hear more from PGIM, tune into Speaking of Alternatives, available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com.
In this Christmas Day special edition of Bloomberg Daybreak with Nathan Hager: Tom Porcelli, Chief US Economist at PGIM Fixed Income, discusses what the Fed will do in 2025. Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets and Cameron Dawson, the Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth, break down what we can expect in equities Burt Flickinger, the Managing Director at Strategic Resource Group, brings us the winners and losers of the 2024 holiday retail season. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
In this Christmas Day special edition of Bloomberg Daybreak with Nathan Hager: Tom Porcelli, Chief US Economist at PGIM Fixed Income, discusses what the Fed will do in 2025. Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets and Cameron Dawson, the Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth, break down what we can expect in equities Burt Flickinger, the Managing Director at Strategic Resource Group, brings us the winners and losers of the 2024 holiday retail season. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
In this Christmas Day special edition of Bloomberg Daybreak with Nathan Hager: Tom Porcelli, Chief US Economist at PGIM Fixed Income, discusses what the Fed will do in 2025. Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets and Cameron Dawson, the Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth, break down what we can expect in equities Burt Flickinger, the Managing Director at Strategic Resource Group, brings us the winners and losers of the 2024 holiday retail season. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
With COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan now concluded, the conference ultimately delivered mixed results. In this episode of Fixed on ESG, we analyse the key takeaways from the event, including the geopolitical tensions, financial commitments, and growing Global North-South divide that influenced the outcomes. We also highlight under-the-radar wins, such as methane reduction pledges and the establishment of new carbon market rules, and finally, consider whether COP can continue to drive meaningful change. PGIM Fixed Income's John Ploeg, CFA, Co-Head of ESG Research, hosts this discussion with Nuvneet Dhillon, CFA, ESG Specialist. Recorded on December 17, 2024.
Accelerating demand growth for U.S. power has wide ranging investment implications. In this episode of All the Credit®, we explore the complexities surrounding the demand for power generation driven in part by AI advancements and data centers, discussing logistical implications, regulatory challenges, and regional power dynamics. We address the potential role of nuclear energy and the risks for utilities and consumers amid rising power prices. PGIM Fixed Income's Brian Barnhurst, CFA, Head of Global Credit Research, hosts Michael Haigh, CFA, U.S. Leveraged Loans Portfolio Manager, and Maxwell Hausle, CFA, U.S. Investment Grade Credit Research Analyst. Recorded on November 26, 2024.
There are many top-down tools that attempt to model climate-related credit risks, but risks relating to the transition towards a low carbon economy often stem from complex regulation and hotly debated policy that are not easily captured in simplistic models. In this episode of Fixed on ESG, we focus on the EU autos sector as a means of exploring how we leverage our bottom-up research approach to analyse climate risks. We discuss the tightening of EU automobile manufacturer emissions targets, limitations of current climate value-at-risk (Climate VaR) models, and the research process we employ to integrate climate transition risks into our credit analysis. PGIM Fixed Income's Alistair Shepheard-Walwyn, CFA, ESG Specialist, hosts this discussion with Chris Roberts, European Investment Grade Credit Research Analyst. Recorded on November 26, 2024.
Italy surprised much of the world when it became the first—and only—member of the G7 to join China's Belt and Road program in 2019. Just four years later, Italy withdrew from the initiative. The about-face served as a microcosm of the geopolitical landscape's evolution. Policymakers have long viewed the economy through a geopolitical lens. But the overlap between the economy and national security has grown, increasingly becoming the focus of today's geopolitical fractures amid global competition over trade, technology and defense. This episode of The Outthinking Investor explores the ways in which nations are balancing economic and security priorities, and how investors can leverage geopolitical analysis to make informed portfolio decisions in a changing world. Our guests are Mark Esper, former US Secretary of Defense and author of “A Sacred Oath: Memoirs of a Secretary of Defense During Extraordinary Times”; Nobel Prize-winning economist Michael Spence, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, former Dean of the Stanford School of Business and co-author of “Permacrisis: A Plan to Fix a Fractured World”; and Magdalena Polan, PGIM Fixed Income's Head of Emerging Markets Macroeconomic Research. Topics include the three main forces affecting the global economy, how national defense is influencing economic policy, the geopolitical factors impacting trade flows and emerging markets, and whether the peace dividend is evaporating. To learn more about the macroeconomic and investment implications of geopolitical risks, explore PGIM's 2024 Global Risk Report, Resilient Investing Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty, at PGIM.com. Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at thought.leadership@pgim.com.
The past decade's explosive increase in digitalisation is forecast to continue exponentially in the coming years. This expansion of the digital economy is fueling the need for data centres. But data centre growth may see significant challenges given the large amounts of electricity they require. Uncertainty about how quickly their power demand will grow is also creating challenges for utilities that have to plan their generation capacity years in advance. Meanwhile, major tech companies claim to be fueling much of their electricity consumption with low carbon energy. But, the story may not be as simple as they make it appear. This episode of Fixed on ESG provides a comprehensive look at data centres' energy use, the implications of this for utilities, methods of renewable energy procurement, and how companies account for this in their emissions reporting. PGIM Fixed Income's Birgit Lundem Jakobsen, ESG Specialist, hosts this discussion with John Ploeg, CFA, Co-Head of ESG Research, and Patrick Myers, CFA, U.S. Leveraged Finance Credit Research Analyst. Recorded on October 25, 2024.
What challenges and opportunities lie ahead for oil markets amid looming oversupply and fluctuating demand? In this episode of All the Credit®, we delve into the outlook of crude oil, exploring supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical risks, and potential impacts from the 2024 U.S. election. We examine various energy subsectors and the financial health of U.S. energy companies. PGIM Fixed Income's Tom Porcelli, Chief U.S. Economist, hosts Dave Winans, U.S. Investment Grade Credit Research Analyst.
The use of economic statecraft is on the rise. With rivalries among major economies intensifying, countries are increasingly employing tariffs, sanctions and subsidies, contributing to a global realignment in trade flows. Meanwhile, elections in the US and Europe portend new debates over taxes, government spending, and the right fiscal formula to support growth and productivity. In the US, the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act's tax reductions for individuals are due to expire in 2025, setting the stage for another round of changes to the tax code. Europe faces difficult budget choices amid calls for the bloc to double down on industrial policy and implement capital markets reforms to boost growth—the subject of a highly anticipated report from Mario Draghi. In the face of rapid economic changes and a shifting political landscape, investors need to consider how fiscal policies will influence the evolving investment outlook. Glenn Hubbard and Jason Furman, former Chairs of the Council of Economic Advisers under Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, join PGIM Fixed Income's Lead Geopolitical Analyst Mehill Marku in this episode of The Outthinking Investor. The discussion covers major economic challenges facing policymakers, the effects of tariffs on inflation, trade flows, and the broader economy, and the future of U.S. tax policies. Additionally, they explore efforts to boost Europe's economic competitiveness, the importance of remaining vigilant against potential market shocks, and investment strategies to mitigate risks from fiscal and geopolitical uncertainties.
The rising cost of housing has brought into full view the need for more affordable housing solutions. Fannie Mae's new Mission Index aims to assist the housing market by enhancing transparency and supporting disadvantaged borrowers. This episode of Fixed on ESG explores the Mission Index and Social Bond Framework for single-family RMBS pools, looking at pool composition, prepayment performance, the collaborative effort behind the launch, and more. David Klausner, ESG Specialist at PGIM Fixed Income, hosts this discussion with Nick Sapirie, Vice President of Single-Family Capital Markets at Fannie Mae, and Kaustub Samant, Head of Mortgage Credit Research at PGIM Fixed Income. Recorded on September 5, 2024.
Debt-for-nature swaps have come to the forefront as a unique solution for both environmental conservation and debt alleviation. In this episode of Fixed on ESG, we are joined by The Nature Conservancy, an organization that's aided in structuring several of these types of instruments. Together, we examine their role in alleviating the post-pandemic debt surge in developing economies, the environmental benefits of these instruments, and challenges for investors and measuring effectiveness. Yacine Rachid, ESG Research Analyst at PGIM Fixed Income, hosts this discussion with Slav Gatchev, Sustainable Debt Managing Director at The Nature Conservancy (TNC), and Armelle de Vienne, Co-Head of ESG Research at PGIM Fixed Income. Recorded on August 1, 2024.
Ben Thompson, Head of EMEA Leveraged Finance Capital Markets, hosts Jonathan Butler, Head of European Leveraged Finance and Co-Head of Global High Yield Strategy at PGIM Fixed Income, to unpack the global leveraged finance market. They discuss central bank policies, geopolitical risks, and private credit trends, offering insights into strategies for navigating market volatility. Plus, they discuss themes from the upcoming J.P. Morgan European High Yield and Leveraged Finance Conference. This episode was recorded on Aug 20, 2024. This material was prepared by certain personnel of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates and subsidiaries worldwide and not the firm's research department. It is for informational purposes only, is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase, sale or tender of any financial instrument and does not constitute a commitment, undertaking, offer or solicitation by any JPMorgan Chase entity to extend or arrange credit or provide any other products or services to any person or entity. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Company. All rights reserved.
As the geopolitical landscape continues to shift in light of recent global election results, the consequential economic effects are becoming a primary focus in the investment sphere. This episode dives into the latest election outcomes in both developed and emerging nations, the growing divide in electorates, and the impact of these elections on fiscal deficits. This episode features PGIM Fixed Income's Katharine Neiss, PhD, Deputy Head of Global Economics and Chief European Economist, Mehill Marku, Head Geopolitical Analyst, Cathy Hepworth, CFA, Head of Emerging Markets Debt, and host Tom Porcelli, Chief U.S. Economist. Recorded on July 16, 2024.
Amid global market volatility and potential economic shifts, understanding inflation's impact on bond markets is pivotal for informed investing. This episode delves further into this topic with a focus on developed markets such as the U.S. and Eurozone, exploring the potential path of rate cuts, the attractiveness of bonds versus cash, and how a reflation scenario could impact investment strategies. This episode features PGIM Fixed Income's Katharine Neiss, PhD, Deputy Head of Global Economics and Chief European Economist, Robert Tipp, CFA, Chief Investment Strategist and Head of Global Bonds, and host Michael Roper, CFA, Portfolio Manager, European Investment Grade Corporate Bonds. Recorded on June 24, 2024.
The aviation industry is under the sustainability microscope with recent estimates finding that it contributes to 6% of total global warming. This episode of Fixed on ESG explores the role of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) in mitigating aviation's environmental impact, the contrasting policy approaches in the U.S. and EU, and discusses the potential implications of SAF on airline credit profiles and decarbonisation strategies. This episode is hosted by PGIM Fixed Income's Taylor Chatlos, ESG Specialist, and features Jack Fitzsimmons, CFA, U.S. Leveraged Finance Credit Analyst, and Sean Goodier, CFA, European Investment Grade Credit Research Analyst. Recorded on June 18, 2024.
Tackling the intricacies of ESG investing in a warming world is a top challenge for today's investors. In the second half of this two-part series, we explore the practical application of temperature alignment in investment strategies, detail the limitations of third-party ESG data, and introduce PGIM Fixed Income's proprietary Temperature Alignment Tool, which offers a nuanced assessment of a company's climate impact. This episode features PGIM Fixed Income's Ruth Klavert, Client Manager, and James Malone, CFA, ESG Specialist. Recorded on June 3, 2024.
Bonds are back and with fixed income gaining interest with investors, we're taking an introspective look at our investment process and how we're navigating current market dynamics here at PGIM Fixed Income. We touch on our scenario-based approach, investment views, the fixed income opportunity set we see ahead, and what it means for us as we construct portfolios. This episode features PGIM Fixed Income's Greg Peters, Co-Chief Investment Officer, and host, Brian Barnhurst, CFA, Head of Global Credit Research. Recorded on May 31, 2024.
Navigating the volatile landscape of geopolitics and its implications on emerging markets has become critical in this uncertain economic climate. In this episode, we provide an in-depth analysis of the current geopolitical landscape, its profound impact on emerging markets, and the risk factors on our radar. This episode features PGIM Fixed Income's Cathy Hepworth, CFA, Head of Emerging Markets Debt, Mehill Marku, Lead Geopolitical Analyst, and host, Tom Porcelli, Chief U.S. Economist. Recorded on April 23, 2024.
The current interest rate environment is driving a rise in downgrades, special situations and liability management exercises. But how to know which of the increasing number of stressed and distressed credits are worth adding to — or keeping in — the portfolio?In this week's episode of Cloud 9fin, senior reporter Bianca Boorer sits down with Rob Fawn, a portfolio manager in the European leveraged finance team at PGIM Fixed Income, to talk about how this new era is creating new challenges and new opportunities for leveraged finance teams.
The stock market crash of 1929 was a pivotal event that rippled across the globe. The Great Crash rocked financial markets, not to mention the world economy, and proved to be a precursor to the Great Depression. The sudden selloff wiped out the fortunes of investors who were ill prepared to ride out a bear market. Today, investors must heed the lessons from volatile markets of the past and take stock of hidden risks that may reveal themselves as current market conditions evolve. What strategies can investors employ to mitigate downside risks in their portfolios? This episode of The Outthinking Investor examines risk through the lens of alternatives. Experts discuss the challenges investors face in making the right decisions for their portfolios, taking a holistic view of diversification, and the role that alts can play in both managing risk and capturing opportunities that emerge from volatility. Hear from Victor Haghani, founder and CIO of the wealth advisory firm Elm Wealth and co-founder of Long-Term Capital Management; Apostolos Katsaris, Senior Client Portfolio Manager for PGIM Wadhwani; and Ryan Kelly, Head of Special Situations for PGIM Fixed Income.
Bloomberg's Nathan Hager breaks down the latest PCE data with Bloomberg Economics and Policy Editor Michael McKee. Plus, reaction to the data from Tom Porcelli, Chief US Economist at PGIM Fixed Income, and Wells Fargo Senior Economist Sarah House. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Bloomberg's Nathan Hager breaks down the latest PCE data with Bloomberg Economics and Policy Editor Michael McKee. Plus, reaction to the data from Tom Porcelli, Chief US Economist at PGIM Fixed Income, and Wells Fargo Senior Economist Sarah House. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Bloomberg's Nathan Hager breaks down the latest PCE data with Bloomberg Economics and Policy Editor Michael McKee. Plus, reaction to the data from Tom Porcelli, Chief US Economist at PGIM Fixed Income, and Wells Fargo Senior Economist Sarah House.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Bloomberg's Nathan Hager breaks down the latest PCE data with Bloomberg Economics and Policy Editor Michael McKee. Plus, reaction to the data from Tom Porcelli, Chief US Economist at PGIM Fixed Income, and Wells Fargo Senior Economist Sarah House.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
With significant repricing across all commercial real estate (CRE) sectors, normalizing rent growth, and rising expenses, it's time to revisit and reassess the CRE space. Get our thoughts on the CRE market today, implications for the banking sector, and risk factors we're monitoring. This episode features PGIM Fixed Income's David Jiang, U.S. Investment Grade Credit Research Analyst, Jason Pan, CFA, FSA, Securitized Products Credit Research Analyst, and host, Tom Porcelli, Chief U.S. Economist. Recorded on March 12, 2024.
Some medical breakthroughs come from unexpected sources. The origins of new weight-loss drugs such as Ozempic—known in the industry as GLP-1s—can be traced back to 2005, when they were introduced as a treatment for diabetes. Two decades later, these drugs have seemingly burst onto the medical scene, gaining notoriety for their ability to help people lose weight and the potential implications for a variety of other business sectors. This “Ozempic effect” serves as an important lesson for investors: Healthcare innovations often have a cascading impact on the economy and their portfolios. With the healthcare industry working overtime on the next big breakthrough, identifying future winners in the medical field will lead investors to new opportunities. The Outthinking Investor gathered insights from experts in the healthcare space to dig deeper into the future of medical innovations and how consumer behavior could change with the rise of weight-loss drugs. Our guests in this episode are Daniel Matviyenko, Managing Director and Portfolio Manager for Jennison's healthcare strategies; Scott Swanson, Principal and Credit Analyst at PGIM Fixed Income; and Tim Dall, a health economist and Executive Director at GlobalData.
Municipals are starting the year semi-flat, and the latest read on consumer prices won't do much to alleviate the concern of market participants that performance could be stagnant for the foreseeable future. At the same time, there are still some areas of relative value, even though the absolute tradeoff from late 2023 has faded to a large degree. In the latest Masters of the Muniverse episode of Bloomberg Intelligence's FICC Focus podcast, Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano are joined by Jason Appleson, managing director and head of PGIM Fixed Income's municipal-bond team. They discuss market dynamics, credit quality, election predictions and much more.
Despite fluctuating post-pandemic interest rates, the U.S. economy has shown unexpected resilience. Contrary to predictions of a possible recession the U.S. economy continues to show signs of economic growth. In this episode of All the Credit®, Tom Porcelli, Chief U.S. Economist, hosts Guillermo Felices, PhD and George Jiranek, CFA, two of PGIM Fixed Income's global investment strategists, for an analysis of U.S. interest rate fluctuations and their ripple effect on the economy, including responses across sectors, shifts in consumer financial health, and labor market dynamics. Recorded on February 23, 2024.
A storm may be brewing off the coast. It is not a new concern for investors, but its intensity has grown. The US federal government owes more than $34 trillion—and counting. This level of debt has the potential to wreak havoc, even for the world's largest economy. Government debt has grown in other parts of the globe as well, and debt held by consumers and businesses can also pose economic risks. With a tsunami of debt lurking in the distance, investors must take stock of the potential ramifications if it ever crashes onto the shore. This episode of The Outthinking Investor addresses the economic challenges associated with an increasing debt burden, the impact on inflation, interest rates and financial markets, and fiscal policy prescriptions that could help bring the debt under control. Randal Quarles, former Vice Chair for Supervision at the Federal Reserve; Maya MacGuineas, President of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget; and Tom Porcelli, Chief US Economist for PGIM Fixed Income, join the podcast to give a unique perspective on the intersection of debt, fiscal policy and financial markets.
Greg Peters joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a global fixed income perspective on the evolving macro landscape. We hear why “weakflation” may be the most likely scenario for the US economy but that a the risk of recession is three times its typical level. Greg outlines what the secular shifts in the global economy such as the end of the era of secular stagnation, a stagnating China, stickier global inflation and higher return to labour, mean for the global economy and asset markets. We discuss the recent gyrations in then bond market, how the composition of demand for US Treasuries is changing and why Greg is not overly concerned about debt sustainability for the US economy. And we delve into the outlook for emerging markets and why Greg is constructive on the outlook for EM excluding China.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Gregory on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:42 - Introduction to Gregory Peters05:15 - What types of portfolios PGIM Fixed Income running?06:28 - Peters' perspective on the state of global macro11:44 - Peters' response to the inverted curve15:30 - Is Peters concerned about the U.S debt?19:36 - Japanese investors in a tough spot22:11 - Financial repression and domestic bias24:11 - The yield is destiny27:28 - What range are...
Barron's Ideas Editor Matt Peterson speaks with Daleep Singh, PGIM Fixed Income's chief global economist and head of global macroeconomic research. Singh is also the former U.S. deputy national security advisor for international economics.
Rates have sharply increased in the past 18 months and at PGIM Fixed Income, we anticipate they will remain elevated. In this episode of All the Credit®, Brian Barnhurst, CFA, Co-Head of Credit Research, is joined by guests Mick Meyler, Head of Developed Market Rates, and Tom Porcelli, Chief U.S. Economist, to examine the core factors supporting our view of higher-for-longer rates. The trio also discuss the end of the hiking cycle, weigh the impact of fiscal deficits on long-term rates, and explore the interplay between rates, curve shape, and the economy. Recorded on November 17, 2023.