Sound Investing

In this episode, Paul Merriman details his upcoming presentations at Western Washington University, where he will be connecting with students, professors, and staff about the critical importance of personal finance education. Paul also gives practical investing advice, including a hands-on guide to using Morningstar's chart and comparison tools to analyze mutual funds and ETFs.Special Feature: Free Online Financial Literacy CoursePaul spotlights a fantastic, free multi-week financial literacy course led by Alan and Katie Donoghan—nationally recognized educators from the UK. This course is perfect for first-time investors of any age, as well as anyone looking to build a solid foundation in personal finance.Course Dates:The next session starts 2 June 2025 at 8pm UK time. Sessions run weekly throughout the summer.What's included: Engaging lessons on investing basics, budgeting, mortgages, and money management—delivered in a fun, approachable style.Format: Live online sessions (with replays on YouTube), each followed by an expert Q&A.Who's it for: Anyone—from college students to adults in their 40s or 50s—looking to take control of their financial future.Previous students give rave reviews: Over 15,000 people have enrolled, with glowing testimonials from participants who now feel confident and empowered about their finances.How to join: Register here for free and find the intro video and full schedule. All sessions are accessible worldwide.Morningstar Tools & Tables Referenced:Paul walks listeners through using Morningstar's chart and comparison features, specifically referencing the following funds and time periods:VFINX (Vanguard 500 Index Fund):Time period: From August 31, 1976 to May 23, 2025Used to illustrate long-term S&P 500 performanceTESIX (Franklin Mutual Shares Fund):Time period: From August 31, 1976 to May 23, 2025Compared side-by-side with VFINX to show how a value fund performed versus the S&P 500 over nearly 50 yearsDFLVX (DFA US Large Cap Value Fund):Time period: From 1993 to 2025Compared with TESIX and VVIAX for large cap value performanceVVIAX (Vanguard Value Index Fund):Time period: From 1993 to 2025Used for comparison with DFLVX and TESIXDFSVX (DFA US Small Cap Value Fund):Time period: From 2000 to 2025Compared with TESIX for small cap vs large cap value performanceAVUV (Avantis US Small Cap Value ETF):Time period: From 2021 to presentCompared with DFLVX and VVIAX for recent small cap value performanceHow Paul Uses Morningstar:On Morningstar, Paul suggests:Navigating to the “Chart” tab for each fundSelecting “Max” to see the longest available performance historyEntering ticker symbols (like VFINX, TESIX, DFLVX, VVIAX, DFSVX, AVUV) in the “Compare” box to view multiple funds together- make sure any funds being compared to the primary fund have a track record from a date at least as long as the primary fundUsing Morningstar's Chart and Compare tools:Compare VFINX vs TESIX (1976–2025)Compare DFLVX, VVIAX, and TESIX (1993–2025)Compare DFSVX vs TESIX (2000–2025)Compare AVUV vs DFLVX and VVIAX (2021–present)PDF showing the above comparisons

Prior to discussing his topic of the day, Paul shares his thoughts on a recent podcast featuring Truth Tellers Tom Cock and Don McDonald, joined by Weston Wellington from Dimensional Fund Advisors. Weston weighs in on some of the most critical issues facing investors right now.Here are the topics on the podcast with Tom Cock and Don McDonald-0:53 Weston Wellington on volatility and market uncertainty2:47 Why volatility is the “price we pay to play”3:32 The media's role in investor anxiety4:57 Should investors act on daily financial advice?6:15 Portfolio changes should reflect personal changes, not headlines7:24 Spam vs. Motorola: A lesson in stock picking9:44 Dimensional's stance on individual stock ownership10:02 Diversification as “the closest thing to a free lunch”11:07 Are alternative investments the new magic bullet?12:43 Mutual funds vs. ETFs—what works best and when15:27 Industry evolution: from 8% loads to indexing dominance18:29 Where Dimensional fits in the modern fund landscape21:01 AI vs. “aggregated intelligence” in managing portfolios24:04 How regular people can find real financial advice25:34 The key to success: Temperament, not timing26:44 Weston's side gig as a roving birthday singer27:58 Why Weston hasn't been invited lately (and he's lonely)Next, Paul highlights a recent article by another Truth Teller, Ben Carlson. In “60/40 Portfolio Corrections, Bear Markets and Recoveries,” Ben breaks down the differences in returns during bear markets and the bounce-back that follows. Inspired by this, Paul explores a question that doesn't get much attention: What's the impact on a portfolio when you apply a 4% fixed withdrawal rate to the nine Sound Investing equity portfolios, each with a 60/40 equity-to-fixed income split? The results may surprise you!Paul notes there's more to come on this topic, as these findings could have a real impact on how investors choose their retirement portfolios.As promised, here are the links to the Sound Investing Portfolios:50% U.S. / 50% International70% U.S. / 30% International

Being a do-it-yourself investor can be both rewarding and challenging. In this episode, we explore the essential mindset and strategies needed to succeed in the long term. Drawing from academic research, historical data, and decades of experience, this episode covers:Why short-term returns are often just noise and how to focus on the bigger picture.The importance of a 20-30 year horizon for small-cap value investments.How to avoid emotional decision-making and set realistic expectations.Insights into the performance of small-cap value vs. the S&P 500 over 25+ years.The role of faith, patience, and discipline in building a successful investment portfolio.Paul also provides a step-by-step guide to help investors analyze the numbers referenced in this episode. Follow these steps to compare small-cap value funds and the S&P 500:Steps to Analyze Performance on Morningstar:Open morningstar.com.Enter DFFVX in the search box at the top of the page.Open the Chart option located next to the Quote.Select MAX next to the Start Date to view the full performance history.One by one, enter the following ticker symbols into the Fund Chart Compare search box and hit return after each:This process allows you to visualize and compare the performance of these funds over time and gain a deeper understanding of the data discussed in this podcast.Whether you're 25 or 81, this episode is packed with actionable insights and encouragement to help you stay the course and achieve your financial goals. Listen now for expert advice and a fresh perspective on long-term investing!Links that Paul uses in this podcast-Bootcamp #1 - Biggest Decision of All: Stocks vs. BondsAvantis Quilt Chart

"Buy and hold investors don't just win on average returns— they win by avoiding the behavioral landmines that sabotage long-term success.” Paul MerrimanIn this podcast Paul addresses one of the most important investment decisions a do it yourself investor will make. Paul opens the discussion with comments from a Forbes article from 2008 that discusses Warren Buffett's market timing decision he made to get totally out of the market in 1969 and back aboard in 1974.The podcast (with the help of Chatgpt, includes a list of 10 common reasons market timing doesn't work for amateur investors.1. Missing the best days2. Emotional decision-making3. Perfect timing is impossible4. Higher costs and taxes5. Volatility is high during recovery6. Recency Bias7. Focus on noise, not timing signals8. Overconfidence9. Loss of Compound Growth10. Data shows long-term investing winsPaul challenges AI that there are many emotional disadvantages with timing.The most important performance and non performance hurdles:1. Decision-making: Timing requires lots of work and buy and hold almost none.2. Mistakes: Market timing suffers lots of mistakes and buy & hold rarely wrong in the long term.3. Emotional Toll: Timing has lots of emotional challenges and buy & hold is more peaceful. 4. Behavioral Risks: Timing has lots of behavioral risks and buy & hold is simple.5. Time Commitment: Timing takes time and action and buy & hold is rarely touched.6. Expenses: Costs and taxes are both lower with buy & hold.7. Timers must be more resilient with many decisions being wrong.8. Financial Results: A few timers may perform well but all buy & holders are likely to have “won”.

Watch Video hereApril is Financial Literacy Month, and to help us celebrate we brought in a returning guest, Paul Merriman. Paul has been on the show before to discuss investment portfolios, but today he talks with us about some extraordinary strides he's making as a financial literacy advocate through his nonprofit, The Merriman Financial Education Foundation. We also share some of our favorite financial literacy resources.RESOURCES MENTIONED ON THE SHOW

Watch video hereThis updated discussion of the Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio highlights the advantages of equity asset allocation and worldwide diversification. The presentation was presented to members of the Washington State Society of CPAs. At the end of the presentation Paul adds his list of 15 million dollar decisions that all investors will make in their lifetime.

Watch the video hereJoin me on Catching Up to Fi l with Rick Ferri to discuss key investing topics like asset allocation and the pros and cons of small-cap value vs. total market funds. TIMESTAMPS / CHAPTERS00:00 ⛓️ Understanding Bonds and Young Investors02:31

In the left corner, we have Paul Merriman, the seasoned finance veteran weighing in at 183 pounds. In the right corner, Dr. Karsten Jeske, the scrappy newcomer at 208 pounds. The bell rings, and the small cap value debate begins.This episode features a financial boxing match between two investment heavyweights with dramatically different perspectives. Paul Merriman champions diversification through the efficient frontier, which means adding small cap value to your portfolio. Dr. Karsten Jeska has “thrown cold water” on this approach, favoring simpler strategies like “VTSAX and chill.”The stakes are high — we're talking potentially millions of dollars in your retirement account over decades.Merriman argues that history shows clear evidence for small cap value's premium. From 2000 to 2009, small cap value outperformed the S&P 500 in all but one year, compounding at 10 percent while the S&P 500 returned negative 1 percent. He believes this pattern will continue, creating a powerful diversification effect when combined with broader market indexes.Jeske counters that small cap value's outperformance is mostly “front-loaded” in history, happening before anyone knew about it. Since 2006, small cap value has underperformed. He argues that once an advantage becomes widely known, it disappears in an efficient market. Adding small cap value might even be “di-worsification” — increasing complexity without improving returns.The debate expands beyond small cap value to touch on:Active vs. passive investing strategiesMarket timing vs. buy-and-hold approachesSimplicity vs. complexity in portfolio constructionThe role of faith vs. evidence in investment decisionsWhile both experts disagree about small cap value's future, they agree on fundamentals: invest early, stay invested for the long term, and understand that no one can predict markets with certainty.What starts as a technical debate evolves into a philosophical discussion about evidence, probability, and the limits of our knowledge — all with millions of retirement dollars hanging in the balance.Timestamps:Note: Timestamps will vary on individual listening devices based on dynamic advertising run times. The provided timestamps are approximate and may be several minutes off due to changing ad lengths.(0:00) Debate intro: small cap value vs index funds(4:01) Merriman: small cap value offers premium returns(9:40) Jeske: small cap value underperformed since 2006(18:20) Historical performance data significance(25:15) Stakes: difference of millions over time(33:08) Diversification vs added volatility debate(41:45) Risk-adjusted returns comparison(49:08) Questioning true diversification benefits(57:40) Value traps and actively managed funds(1:05:08) Technology stocks vs value investments(1:13:45) Data selection bias in studies(1:19:40) Faith vs science in investment decisions(1:29:20) Personal risk tolerance considerations(1:36:08) Closing arguments on investment strategies(1:42:08) Paula declares the debate a drawWatch video here

If a retired investor has the ability to use a flexible distribution strategy it will likely produce one of the best financial outcomes in retirement.Before discussing flexible distributions Paul lists the reasons he believes that 99% of successful long term depends on defensive steps. After listing 18 defensive decisions he explains why flexible distributions are better than fixed distributions for those who have over said.The presentation includes 16 distribution tables that can be found in this pdf for the presentation. In each case Paul compares the difference in returns and risk between the fixed and flexible distribution strategies. The discussion compares returns and total distributions for two of the 9 sound investing portfolios: one using the S&P 500 and the other the U.S. 2 Fund Portfolio (50/50 S&P 500Small Cap Value).Other links noted in the presentation:Sound Investing Portfolios

The move from the accumulation to distribution period of an investors lifetime includes some very important decisions.What asset allocation between equities and fixed income?What combination of equity asset classes in the equity portion, as well as fixed income asset classes?What amount of distribution will be made annually?Will the payments be monthly, quarterly or annually?Will payments be adjusted for inflation and how often?Will the distributions be based on a fixed distribution with regular adjustments for inflation (the topic in this presentation) or on a flexible basis (the topic of the next segment)?In this podcast Paul uses 15 slides to address the questions above. It is recommended the viewer print out the ⁠PP presentation  to make it easier to follow the numbers.Many may find it is easier to follow the information on Paul's video⁠ on the same topic.If you have questions about the presentation please leave comment or question in the comment section of the video  or email ⁠paul@paulmerriman.com⁠.  For those sending an email please let us know the topic of the Boot Camp presentation.

Watch video hereYoung and first time investors have to address a number of monumental decisions.  How much money to save for the futureHow much they should invest in equities and bonds How much of the equities should be in large, small, value, growth, U.S. and international asset classesHow much to increase the investment each yearThis podcast/video helps the investor address those decisions.  For those listening to the podcast here is a link to the pdf of all of the tables referenced in the presentation.  He only focuses on a handful of tables but here is a link for those who want to review the entire set of tables.Paul discusses the accumulation process from the viewpoint of an investor as well as a small business owner.  If you have questions please send them to paul@paulmerriman.com or leave them in the comment section below.  

Here is the video link-This is the 4th in a series of 9 Boot Camp videos/podcasts.  The previous three segments covered :Stocks vs. BondsThe Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio Sound Investing Portfolios.In this presentation Paul focuses on the differences between the risks and returns of different percentages stocks and bonds.  He also discusses one table that mixes different percentages of the S&P 500 and small cap value.Here are a couple of videos that focus on small cap value.$13.83 Million? Yes Please! Paul Merriman's Small Cap Value StrategyThe one asset class you must own

Watch Video hereChris Pedersen updates his recommendations and describes his selection process in an interactive presentation with Paul and Daryl along for the ride.This "Best In Class ETFs Recommendations" presentation is the 9th in the Boot Camp Series.  (We have not completed some of the earlier presentations due to the high interest in Chris' Best In Class Recommendations).The focus of each the Boot Camp presentation is to help investors make the best of what we consider to be  the biggest long term decisions they will make. Of course we cannot know the ETFs that will produce the highest returns but we can measure the likely impact of the factors that Chris discusses during his presentation.On behalf of all of the people who find this work helpful, as well as Daryl Bahls and myself, I want to thank Chris Pedersen for all he has done to help us understand the potential long term advantage of his analysis.  It is our hope that his work will give investors  the confidence and commitment to “stay the course" in the normal ups and downs of the market.00:00:00 - Intro00:07:15 - Changes00:12:31 - Factor Basics00:18:00 - Selection Criteria00:20:21 -- Quantifying Differences00:24:32 -- Comparing in an Asset Class00:31:10 -- More than just numbers00:32:12 -- BIC ETFs on Website00:33:05 -- US Large Cap Blend00:34:33 -- US Large Cap Value00:37:40 -- US Small Cap Blend00:42:30 -- Int'l Large Cap Value00:43:30 -- Int'l Small Cap Blend00:44:15 -- Em. Mkts Small Cap Blend00:44:50 -- Portfolio Configurator00:46:25 -- Roboadvisor ETFs00:51:06 -- Versus Russell 2,000?00:54:00 -- Avantis & DFA Advantage01:03:36 -- Analysis Timeframes01:04:44 -- Closing RemarksLinks:Best-in-Class ETF Recommendations PagePortfolio ConfiguratorSound Investing Portfolios Bootcamp Page

The 2024 numbers are finally in and we have produced the #1 investment decision in the  Bootcamp series. There is no question that the biggest lifetime decision an investor makes is the choice between the safety of bonds and the potential long term growth of stocks.  Here is a⁠ link⁠ to the pdf of the set of slides Paul uses in the presentation.  The presentation includes the ⁠updated 1, 15 and 40 year returns tables ⁠ along with the  ⁠quilt charts for the 1928 to 2024 period⁠.Our thanks to  Daryl Bahls who has put together most of the tables in the Bootcamp series.If you have questions please send them to ⁠paul@paulmerriman.com⁠.  Please put  Bootcamp #1 in the subject line. Watch video here.

The purpose of this podcast/video is to help investors understand the likely risk and return parameters of small cap value, S&P 500, 2 Fund Portfolio (50% each SCV/S&P) and 4 Fund Portfolio (25% each SCV/S&P/SCB/LCV).  In each case the best, worst, and average 1, 2, 3,  5, 10. 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40 year returns are listed.The following tables are discussed:S&P 500 Historical Risk and Return US SCV Index Portfolio Historical Risk and Return US 2 Fund Index Portfolio Historical Risk and Return US 4 Fund Index Portfolio Historical Risk and Return Also the risk and return page from the Sound Portfolios  is referenced. 

This is the second presentation in the Boot Camp Series. The first presentation (Stocks Vs. Bonds) will be available in the next two weeks.This presentation makes the case for diversifying a portfolio using multiple equity asset classes. Paul uses 4 set of tables to make his case:Table A1a: Ultimate Buy & Hold Equity Portfolio (50% US/50% Int'l) https://irp.cdn-website.com/6b78c197/files/uploaded/Table_A1a-UBH-50-50.pdfTable A2a: Alternative Equity Portfolio Tables (50% US/50% Int'l) https://irp.cdn-website.com/6b78c197/files/uploaded/Table_A2a-_Alternative_Equity_Portfolio_Tables-50-50.pdfTable A1b: Ultimate Buy & Hold Equity Portfolio (70% US/30% Int'l) https://irp.cdn-website.com/6b78c197/files/uploaded/Table_A1b-_Ultimate_Buy_-_Hold_Equity_Portfolio-70-30.pdfTable A-2b: Alternative Equity Portfolio Tables (70% US/30% Int'l) https://irp.cdn-website.com/6b78c197/files/uploaded/A2b-Alternate-Equity-Portfolios-70-30-0e011399.pdfPaul also mentions the recent video/podcast that addresses the Sound Investing Portfolios. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XGv0ZdZ8adkhttps://www.paulmerriman.com/2025-bootcamp-3-sound-investing-portfolios

In this Podcast, Paul, Chris, and Daryl describe the Sound Investing Portfolios and their background, rationale, construction, and performance.    00:00 - Intro02:00 - DFA Background05:47 - Portfolio Rationale11:45 - Allocations14:11 - Backtesting & Comparisons19:32 - Rewards of Diversification28:42 - Differing Good Times32:40 - 70/30 US/Int'l Portfolios35:05 - Which Funds?39:08 - Close   During the Podcast the following tables were referenced:✅ Table H1a - Sound Investing Portfolios: Asset Allocations (50% U.S. / 50% Int'l)✅ Table H2a - Sound Investing Portfolios: Comparative Data (50% U.S. / 50% Int'l)✅ Table H3a -  Sound Investing Portfolios: Annual Returns (50% U.S. / 50% Int'l)✅ Table H1b - Sound Investing Portfolios: Asset Allocations (70% U.S. / 30% Int'l)✅ Table H2b - Sound Investing Portfolios: Comparative Data (70% U.S. / 30% Int'l)✅ Table H3b - Sound Investing Portfolios: Annual Returns (70% U.S. / 30% Int'l)

In this insightful conversation, renowned financial expert Paul Merriman shares his wealth of knowledge and experience in investing. He discusses his journey from stockbroker to founding his own investment advisory firm, and eventually establishing the Merriman Financial Education Foundation. Paul delves into various topics, including: ✅ The importance of data-driven investing and understanding the math behind it✅ His meeting with John Bogle and their differing philosophies on investing✅ The case for small cap value investing and its historical performance✅ The challenges of market timing and the benefits of portfolio diversification✅ The emergence of ETFs and trend following strategies PaulMerriman.com Tables, Graphs and ChartsBoot CampS&P 500 vs Small Cap ValueQuilt Charts Equity Index Returns Free Copy- We're Talking MillionsFree Copy- 2 Funds for LifeBest in Class ETF Update 2024 ETFAtlas.com – A new portal offering a comprehensive catalog of ETFs from the United States, Canada, and Europe.

The podcast starts with a brief history of the growth of the Merriman Financial Literacy Foundation.  From it's small beginning in December 2012, it has produced over 1000 videos, articles and podcasts, published 6 books, spoken at many national conferences, underwritten a university class on investing for non finance majors at Western Washington University, produced portfolios for do it yourself investors, produced recommended mutual funds and ETFs to build the portfolios.  Most recently there is a new effort to give every Western student a meaningful exposure to personal finance.  This is being done under the Merriman Financial Literacy Program at Western. Two years ago we introduced the Merriman Boot Camp.  The purpose of the project is to help investors make the best financial decisions.  In the podcast Paul discusses 14 of those decisions and how we are enlarging our educational efforts.  He also notes that the Boot Camp pages will also contain a new Q&A section on each topic as well as additional information from our list of Truth Tellers.

In this first Q&A podcast of 2025, Paul, Daryl, and Chris discuss several listener questions and expand on Paul's rebuttal of Big ERN's recent criticisms of diversifying with small-cap value. 0:00 – Introduction 0:29  – Responding to Big ERN's critique 2:11 –  Small-cap value lumpsum vs. dollar-cost averaging 6:38 –  Daryl's take on SCV's premium persistence 8:46 –  Chris' take on SCV's premium persistence 15:50 –  Paul highlights the random timing of SCV vs. S&P500 returns 19:50 -- Are there good alternatives to Vanguard's Wellesley fund? 26:18 -- Does 2 Funds for Life mean no SCV in retirement? 29:35 -- Why not let Buffet manage our money in BRK.B? 33:52 -- What portfolio to get a 3.6% safe withdrawal rate in retirement? 38:53 -- Which accounts do we tap for our annual spending needs? 49:39 -- Why doesn't the Portfolio Configurator include REITs and emerging markets? 54:52 -- When will the Best-in-Class ETF recommendations be updated? These tables were referenced- Table G-1b - Fine Tuning Table: S&P 500 vs US SCV Equity Portfolio - Out-Performance Tell-Tale_Charts 2 Funds for Life PDF 2 Funds for Life on Amazon

There has been a lot of anti small cap value articles and podcasts over the last several years.   I have been asked many times whether I think the small cap value premium is a thing of the past.In this podcast I have addressed the most commonly discussed criticisms of small cap value.  During the presentation I reference a blog entitled, "Small-Cap Value Stocks: Diversification or Di-WORSE-fication?" The Early Retirement Now newsletter is written by Karsten Jeske, PhD, CFA. Here is a video of a friendly debate that Karsten and I had on the “Forget About Money” podcast. Listeners will learn that Karsten and I have very different beliefs about what returns best represent the small cap value premium.  I reference the real time  Morningstar performance results of DFFVX (2000 to present), DFSVX (1993 to present) and AVUV (2019 to present). During my discussion I reference Table G-1b, Fine Tuning Table: S&P 500 vs. US SCV Equity Porfolio - Out-Performance and Table H2a - Sound Investing Portfolios: Comparison Data I also referenced a Q&A response on Truth Teller Rob Berger regarding his personal take on small cap value in his own portfolio.   I also mention the interview with Jim Dahle at the 2024 Bogleheads Conference. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8C3KhRJCwCQ

The following are Dr. Pass' note to his podcast:  "This week to conclude 2024 we speak with noted investment expert Mr. Paul Merriman to discuss a few topics related to personal finance and investing. First we tackle the notion of having 'enough' to retire. Is there a magic value and how would one think about this? Why is an S&P 500 Index or Total US Stock Market Index a fine 'core' investment and how might one possibly improve upon its performance? What are some of the psychological hurdles we have as investors and potential retirees? Mr. Merriman reviews these and other topics on our end of year episode.” Paul Merriman's Website Paul's "Quilt" Chart  Paul's "Bootcamp" page Last Year's episode of Pediheart was replayed on Mr. Merriman's site Paul's book "We're Talking Millions"

On December 26, 2019 Paul recorded a podcast entitled, “Could This Be the  #1 Reason to Invest in Index Funds?”  In this podcast he addresses the topic again in “Could This Be the #1 Reason to Invest in Index Funds:  Part 2” The podcast reviews the well established index advantages and adds one that may be the biggest reason an investor is able to stay the course.  This might be a good podcast to share with your young adult children.

Paul, Daryl, and Chris discuss the risks of investing and life. Paul starts with an introduction and admission of his challenges managing risks related to diet and health.  He then gets Chris and Daryl to chime in with their definitions and perspectives on risk.  Daryl then shares a framework for evaluating risk from his days as a systems engineer.  The framework looks at risks in two dimensions: likelihood and impact (or severity).  He describes how the framework can help prioritize which risks to mitigate and gives examples of how some financial risks might be reduced in both dimensions.  Chris is reminded of the book "Die with Zero," and mentions how risks extend beyond finances to experiences. Paul, Chris, and Daryl then discuss some of their challenges in managing the risks of their own portfolio allocations and how their behaviors differ from what might be considered ideal. This leads to discussing the dangers of learning the wrong lessons with examples from inside and outside the personal finance world. Paul reads from the Jonathan Clements article that inspired this podcast: "The Risks We Miss."  Paul then closes out the podcast. Outtakes include Paul and Chris discussing how the Best-in-Class ETFs can help mitigate risk, and what Daryl wants for Christmas. Watch video here- https://youtu.be/veXXh-YVYKU

While I was at the Bogleheads conference in Minneapolis earlier this year, I had a lengthy interview with Paula Pant.  I enjoyed the interview and found lots of questions and comments under the YouTube presentation that I wanted to answer.  While I wrote short comments on the site, I decided many of the questions were worthy of more discussion.Here is a link to the YouTube interview and podcast: #1.  “Most of my holdings are in cash as I cashed out last time the market went down.  How do I stay invested and think long-term to help me ride out the ups and downs of the market?”  02:17 #2.  “I'm just beginning my investment journey and planning to put 85K into dividend stocks so that I will be making up to 30% per year in dividend returns.”   https://rethinking65.com/the-preference-for-dividend-paying-stocks-is-irrational/ 10:41  #3. "What Fidelity Funds do you recommend to build your 4 Fund Portfolio?"   15:00 #4.  "How often do you recommend rebalancing the 4 Fund Portfolio?" 17:02 #5  "Nobody knows what's going to happen next so we should practice some humility and CHOOSE a strategy with a long-term edge."  What is the edge and what else do you need to know dividend stocks k? 21:02 #6.  "I”m not looking to beat the S&P 500…I'm more than happy with the returns I get from it.”  Does that mean it's right for you? 24:36 #7.  In response to Paul's recommendation of the 4 Fund Portfolio this is what one viewer said, “For what it's worth, backtesting shows his proposed fund portfolio does not do better than VTI or VOO.”  Paul responds. 28:32 #8.  "The only small cap value available in my 401k is DFSVX which has an expense ratio of .30%.  Is this expense ratio too high? 32:32 #9. "Can you give ETF recommendations for all of the equity asset classes?"   Here are the Best In Class recommendations. 35:23 #10. "How do you fund a Roth IRA when a child doesn't have earned income?" #11.  Please recommend more information on how I might adjust my 401k. We're talking millions and 2 funds for life. 36:37 #12  "Would you accomplish similar performance results by setting up a strategy using sector diversification instead of asset class diversification?" 40:01 #13  "I'm helping my 17 year old daughter with her Roth IRA.  What do you think about shooting for an all equity 40/30/30 portfolio of US small cap value/S&P 500/Total International market?” 42:23 #14. “This guy has been pushing small cap value  and underperforming for years.  Sorry, no thanks." 44:25

The podcast is dedicated to answering questions about:  Target date funds:  “Do you think someone that simply maxes out their retirement accounts with target date funds and total market funds will be “fine”? Selecting a distribution strategy:  What advice can you give to a DIY investor who is trying to decide what to do about how they access their money to live on and how much to take out? Buy and Hold vs. market timing:  I believe in buy and holding  index funds, with low expenses. I don't think I need to pay an investment advisor to help me do that.  I see the Merriman Wealth Management firm offers buy and hold and market timing services and charges AUM fees.  This is very different from what you suggest on your Foundation website.  What is your relationship with the Merriman firm and what are your beliefs about market timing? All small cap value portfolio:  Do you know investors who are investing 100% of their portfolios in small cap value?  It seems like it might be a smart thing to do with very long term investments for a very young person. Time to start market timing:   I am thinking about using timing with a large amount of new money.  Who do you use for the market timing aspect of your portfolio management?   Flexible vs. fixed distribution strategies:  "I believe you expect that a flexible withdrawal strategy will pay out more money to live on, as well as leave more money to heirs.  Bill Bengen seems to believe that this strategy is not sustainable over the long term even if a person had enough money to accept lower annual withdrawal amounts in market draw downs.  Flexible withdrawal strategies make sense to me but there isn't much writt en about them.  What am I missing?” The answer to this question includes 4 distribution tables:   Table D1.4 - Fixed Distributions: S&P 500 Equity Portfolio - Conservative ($40,000/yr) Table F1.4 - Flexible Distributions (Conservative-4.0%/yr): S&P 500 Equity Portfolio Table D4.4 - Fixed Distributions (Conservative-$40,000/yr): US 4-Fund Equity Portfolio  Table F4.4 - Flexible Distributions (Conservative-4.0%/yr): US 4-Fund Equity Portfolio  Finally Paul reads four Ben Carlson quotes about the nature of bull and bear markets.  Paul makes reference to a table of annual Price to Earning (P/E)ratios starting in 1871 and another comparing the S&P 500 Price to Book Value from 2000 to 2024.  

As this podcast is being released on Thanksgiving Day Paul begins by thanking those people who choose to follow the Foundation's work, those who forward our articles, podcasts and videos to others, and those who donate time and money to the Foundation. He also addresses the challenges of living at three different homes (Bainbridge Island, Portland and Rancho Mirage) in 2024.  We know some donations have been lost in the mail.   Our concern is people will declare a charitable deduction that did not actually happen.  By the way, the permanent address of the Foundation is now - 2445 NW Westover Road #311, Portland, Oregon 97210. Paul comments on his challenges in recommending cryptocurrency. Finally he discusses the life changing impact of goal setting.   The following are articles and videos on goal setting from some of the Truth Tellers Paul recommends. Jim Dahle writes to young doctors but the information is usually good for all people who are putting together a financial plan. The Power of Focus in Your Financial Life Jonathan Clements is struggling with cancer and for anyone facing death sooner than expected, and the goal setting that might be considered, I think you will find his journey worth reading. The C Word. William Bernstein has recently updated his best selling , “The Four Pillars of Investing.”  In this short introduction you will hopefully decided it's worth reading the rest of the book. Here is a podcast that you won't want to miss.  Larry Swedroe is interviewed by another Truth Teller, Ben Felix and Cameron Passmore.  The book they discuss has been updated since the interview.  "Your Complete Guide to a Successful and Secure Retirement" is one of the best books I know for those trying to address the many important retirement goals.  While Christine Benz is the Director of Personal Finance at Morningstar I thought it might be interesting to get her take on the non-financial plans we should consider.  Her new book has  become a best seller.  How to Retire: 20 lessons for a happy, successful, and wealthy retirement.

Paul and Chris interview M1 Finance's CEO, Brian Barnes, and ask several listener questions. This is the follow-up to their previous M1 Finance 2024 update podcast and YouTube video.   They start by asking Brian how and why he created the company. That's followed by a wide-ranging conversation that includes some interesting surprises, like Chris's realization that using M1's target-date pies instead of traditional target-date funds can result in some real tax efficiency. Here's the topic list with time codes. 00:00:00 Intro 00:08:12 M1 Genesis 00:12:51 Partial-Share ETF Trading 00:15:59 Who is M1 for?00:19:42 What's next? 00:22:44 Is M1 a robo-advisor?   00:25:36 M1 Pies 00:29:38 Pies vs. TDFs00:34:32 Tax Efficiency 00:35:46 How safe is M1? 00:41:13 Fixed trade windows 00:48:07 Crossing orders 00:49:22 Competitive rates 00:51:29 Which ETFs? 00:53:19 Fees? 00:57:07 Multi-account rebalancing? 00:58:31 Entrepreneur's experienceDisclaimers:Content is not intended to provide personal tax or financial advice.This information is intended to be used and must be used for information purposes only.M1 is a technology company offering a range offinancial products and services. “M1” refers toM1 Holdings Inc., and its wholly-owned, separateaffiliates M1 Finance LLC, M1 Spend LLC, andM1 Digital LLC.Related to M1 Spend:For informational purposes only and not a traderecommendation. All product and company namesare trademarks or registered trademarks of theirrespective holders. Use of them does not imply anyaffiliation with or endorsement by them.

Paul mentions his upcoming presentation to the ⁠⁠L.A. Chapter of AAII⁠⁠ on November 16, 2024    10:30 to noon. Chris Pedersen and Daryl Bahls join Paul to answer your questions.  Paul opens the podcast with a brief introduction of the team and notes how thankful he is for their commitment to helping others. Paul mentions the huge moves small cap value funds made on November 6.  He follows that with a comparison of the 5 year returns of AVUV and  3 Vanguard small cap value funds (VBR, VIOV and VTWV).  AVUV compound rate of returns were 3 plus percent higher than the Vanguard funds.  Paul's questions:  What caused the higher returns and are they likely to be similar in the future? Chris responds with a lengthy discussion of the systematic approach that AVUV uses and Paul reads what AVUV says about their systematic approach. Chris compares the DFA small cap value fund (DFSV) with AVUV.  Chris also talks about a relative ranking he wants add to his Best In Class recommendations next year. Chris discusses the quality factor of AVUV vs. funds that build their small cap value portfolio using the Russell 2000 Small Cap Value Index.  He introduced a new term: rich minus weak ratio.Paul and Chris discuss the question:  Is AVUV and actively managed fund? Question:  JL Collins recommends VTI (Total Market Index) and Warren Buffett recommends VOO (S&P 500).  Which do we recommend?  Chris notes the important differences between VTI and AVUS and suggests a likely extra .5% return from AVUS. For those who want to own only total market funds, the group discusses the possibilities of replacing both VIT(U.S. Total Market)  and  VXUS (International Total Market) with total market indexes that favor slightly smaller companies with a slightly more value tilt. Paul references Ben Carlson's article about, ⁠⁠“Some Things I Don't Believe About Investing.”⁠⁠  Chris, Daryl and Paul weigh in on things they don't believe about investing.Chris ends with some important comments about how we are likely helping investors. Watch video here.

On November 16, 2024 Paul will speak to the L.A. Chapter of AAII via a Zoom presentation.  Here is the link:   2 Funds to Own Forever, and How to Invest in Small CapsIn this podcast Paul addresses 4 major considerations when selecting a small cap value ETF.  His discussion compares the returns, along with 4 major factors, for AVUV, VBR, VB,, VIOV, DFSVX and DFSV.Is gold worthy of a place in our portfolios?  Probably not but Paul talks about his gold position and why bonds are likely a lot better.He also discusses the important decision to choose buy and hold over market timing.  He references the following article from Truth Teller Ben Carlson: Don't Take Financial Advice From Hedge Fund Managers

Watch the video here.Paul Merriman, a former wealth manager turned financial educator, joins us to share investing wisdom that could reshape how you think about your money.We kick things off talking about portfolio diversification. Paul suggests a simple four-fund strategy that includes large cap, small cap, and value stocks. He says this mix has historically beaten the S&P 500 with lower risk.We then dive into international investing. Paul explains that while adding international stocks doesn't necessarily boost returns, it can help smooth out the ride. He keeps half his equity portfolio in international stocks, even at age 81.Got kids? Paul's got some advice for you too. He tells us about putting money aside for his new granddaughter, aiming to fund her Roth IRA as soon as she can earn income. He breaks down how investing just a dollar a day from birth to age 21 could turn into millions by retirement age. It's a powerful lesson in starting early and the magic of compound interest.We also chat about some common investing mistakes. Paul stresses that young investors often underestimate the power of stocks over bonds for long-term growth. He shares some eye-opening numbers: $100 invested in bonds since 1928 would have grown to about $12,000, while the same amount in small cap value stocks would be worth nearly $15 million.Paul wants you to think of investing as a partnership with businesses. When you buy a mutual fund, you're becoming a senior partner in thousands of companies. At first, your contributions drive most of the growth. But over time, market returns take over, and you become the junior partner to a much larger fortune.We wrap up with Paul sharing his excitement about a 40-hour financial education program he helped create at Western Washington University. It's designed to teach students essential money skills throughout their college years, from budgeting as freshmen to understanding 401(k)s as seniors.Throughout our chat, Paul's message is clear: start early, stay diversified, and think long-term. He believes that with the right education and mindset, anyone can build a solid financial future.4 Fund Combo GuideTable NumbersQuilt ChartsHistorical Risk and Return TablesPortfolio ConfiguratorTimestamps:Note: Timestamps will vary on individual listening devices based on dynamic advertising run times.0:00 Intro to Paul Merriman and podcast topic0:57 Two-fund portfolio strategy3:55 Four-fund portfolio strategy explained5:31 Large cap performance concerns7:06 S&P 500 vs Total Market Index10:59 AI impact on large companies14:43 Market trends and historical performance20:41 International equity in portfolios25:26 ETFs vs index funds29:41 Non-US investor asset allocation38:41 Setting up kids financially43:57 Early investing importance48:37 Common investor mistakes50:25 Investing as business partnership52:51 Evolving financial education landscapeFor more information visit the show notes- https://affordanything.com/550-paul-merriman-the-4-fund-strategy-that-beats-the-sp-500/

The Marriage Kids and Money Podcast is dedicated to helping you do just that. Each week, Andy Hill interviews personal finance experts, millionaire parents and financially independent couples to find out how they achieved their success. He then takes that information and breaks it down into digestible takeaways that will help you win with money. With over 400 episodes and counting, Marriage Kids and Money has been awarded “Best Family Finance Content” by Plutus two years in a row and "Content Creator of the Year". We review everything from how to achieve family financial independence to how to help your kids become future millionaires (who are generous). Paul Merriman shares how DIY investors could become millionaires through a 2 Fund Portfolio and/or 4 Fund Portfolio! GUEST BIO - Paul Merriman When I sold my investment advisory practice, I founded a financial education foundation designed to help do-it-yourself investors of all ages improve their investment returns, at less risk and with greater peace of mind. I am the author of 8 books including "We're Talking Millions! 12 Simple Ways to Supercharge Your Retirement." ⁠Watch the video here.⁠

Investors need to get past marketing and sales pitches to know what they're getting when they invest.  Morningstar is a great place to get that depth. Paul and Chris describe how they each use the free Morningstar tools to evaluate mutual fund and ETF characteristics, such as: * Expense ratios * Liquidity and bid/ask spreads * Geographic focus * Value and size tilts * Financial characteristics * Factor exposures * Number of holdings * Tax efficiency and* Charted historical performance with side-by-side comparisons. Chris also briefly describes how he uses the premium X-Ray feature to compare portfolios with different fund families, including the Best-in-Class ETFs, which he plans to update early next year. For those interested in a more quantitative approach, please take a look at the Bootcamp video Chris created for the Best-in-Class ETF selection process, where he describes how he uses Portfolio Visualizer to quantify fund factor exposures and factor statistics to estimate expected returns.  Here's a link to that video at the time where the Portfolio Visualizer discussion begins:  ⁠https://youtu.be/UaEC-JZYYJA?t=852⁠ Here is the video link for this podcast. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDN3LyEFk3E

Paul updates his list of reasons to use index funds plus comparing the handful of Vanguard Small Cap Value ETFs (VTWV, SLYV, VBR AND VIOV) with the newer Avantis and DFA small cap value ETFs.  He also makes the case that AVUS and DFAU total market funds are likely to produce better returns than VTSAX, VTI, VOO AND VFINX. He also discusses the 15 year returns of 6 each large cap growth, large cap value, small cap blend, small cap growth and small cap value indexes.  The lessons from these tables should be enough to encourage investors to take a closer look at the holdings in their holdings in these asset classes.   In his discussion of indexing he mentions a podcast "#1 reason to own index funds " that has had more than 1,067,000 opens and his MarketWatch article entitled “30 Reasons I Love Index Funds.” He also committed to producing a video, on how to use Morningstar to compare your mutual fund and ETF investments, before the end of the year.

Chris & Paul walk through the changes to The Merriman Financial Education Foundation's relationship with M1 Finance, including affiliate commissions, a new emphasis on accurate messaging, and improved pre-made portfolio shortcuts (M1 calls them Pies). The new Pies now include all of our Sound Investing equity portfolios, taxable and tax-deferred fixed-income portfolios, and 5-year increments of the Merriman Aggressive Target-Date Glide Path allocations.  Chris shows how easy it is to mix them to get the equity and fixed income ratio you want.  He also shows how to approximate intermediate years along the target-date glide path.  Finally, Paul challenges him to create a mix of several different equity strategies, which he demonstrates. Following the demonstrations, they briefly discuss how M1 compares to Fidelity's offering. They close with a request for listener questions to be used in an upcoming interview with M1 Finance's founder and CEO, Brian Barnes.  If you have any, please email them to chriskpedersen@gmail.com.   M1-Related Disclosures This podcast and video were recorded on September 12, 2024.  All information is subject to change. The opinions expressed are solely those of the authors and do not reflect the views of M1. They are for informational purposes only and are not a recommendation of an investment strategy or to buy or sell any security in any account. They are also not research reports and are not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. Prior to making any investment decision, you are encouraged to consult your personal investment, legal, and tax advisors. M1 is a technology company offering a range of financial products and services. “M1” refers to M1 Holdings Inc., and its wholly-owned, separate affiliates M1 Finance LLC, M1 Spend LLC, and M1 Digital LLC. If you choose to transfer your account to another broker-dealer, only the full shares are guaranteed to transfer. Fractional shares may need to be liquidated and transferred as cash. All examples above are hypothetical, do not reflect any specific investments, are for informational purposes only, and should not be considered an offer to buy or sell any products. All investing involves risk, including the risk of losing the money you invest. Brokerage products and services are offered by M1 Finance LLC, Member FINRA / SIPC, and a wholly owned subsidiary of M1 Holdings, Inc. M1 does not provide investment advice, and this is not an offer or solicitation of an offer, or advice to buy or sell any security, and you are encouraged to consult your personal investment, legal, and tax advisors. M1 is not recommending or endorsing this investment by making it available to its customers.

In preparation for his presentation at the Bogleheads Conference Paul reread John Bogle's “The Little Book of Common Sense Investing” He has been recommending the book since 2007 but in 2017 Wiley published the updated and revised edition.  There is some terrific new material in the revised edition.Paul focuses on several topics from the book including Bogel's statement that index funds are the only “honest” funds.  Paul discusses the reasons actively managed funds can't afford to tell the truth.Paul also discusses Chapter 2 on Rational Exuberance.  In this chapter Bogle discusses the very important topic of investment returns vs. speculative returns.  This topic is essential for do it yourself investors to understand as it prepares them for a reality of investing that could help them stay the course during difficult times.Paul ends by reading Bogle's list of 8 common sense realities that every investor should know.  It would probably be smart to reread this short list at least once a year.At the Bogleheads conference Paul will speak twice: once in an interview with Jim Dahle (The White Coat Investor).  The topic is factor investing.  We have developed a page of links to all of the tables that are focused on the use of factor funds to build a portfolio.  Here is a link to that list of tables, charts and graphs.In his second opportunity to share he is part of a panel on investing.  That will be a free for all and should be fun.All of the conference presentations are being taped so they will be available in the coming months. 

I had an amazing conversation with David Baughier on the Forget About Money podcast! We discussed my 12 One-Million Dollar Ideas for building wealth, the power of starting early, and why index funds are a game-changer for long-term investing. We also covered the importance of diversification, the benefits of small-cap value stocks, and why sticking with a buy-and-hold strategy beats trying to time the market. Whether you're new to investing or looking to refine your retirement plan, this episode has actionable tips to help you secure your financial future. Give it a listen—you won't want to miss it! Watch the video here. Download the transcript here

Paul starts the podcast with a discussion of his ⁠special presentation⁠ to the graduating nurses from the College of Nursing at Texas A&M. This presentation was part of a Life Transitions Series. He discusses how he might be able to do a similar presentation for other groups of graduating college students, as well as  groups of investors who are trying to get the most from their company 401k. The second topic is regarding a new set of tables that should help investors figure out potential future returns for the S&P 500, ⁠Small Cap Value, U.S. 2 Fund Index Portfolio and U.S. 4 Fund Index Portfolio⁠. The third topic was motivated by Ben Carlson's articles on “⁠Why Housing is Everyone's Favorite Investment⁠” and “⁠What is the Historical Rate of Return on Housing?⁠” Paul recently sold his home and discusses the challenges of figuring out how the profits compared to the S&P 500., As promised Paul had his meeting with David Sterman, an hourly CFP, who has followed our recommendations. Paul discusses his services and costs. Here is his contact information: ⁠https://huguenotfinancialplanning.com⁠  1358 Old Ford Rd. New Paltz, NY 12561 Phone: (917) 553-0675⁠ david@huguenotfinancialplanning.com⁠  For those interested in the Boglehead Conference: ⁠https://boglecenter.net/2024conference/⁠

Paul starts the podcast talking about the upcoming Boglehead Conference (Sept.27-29) in Minneapolis.  The following link lists the speakers and topics.  https://boglecenter.net/2024conference/ Q1:  Should I invest $300,000 inheritance all at once or dollar cost average? 02:23 Q2:  If SCV is such a great asset class why do the companies all have such low P/E ratios? 8:06 Q3:  Given that our Roth IRAs have unlimited investment options how should we approach investing in our Roth accounts to best complement the life cycle funds in our 401k? 21:54 Q4:  Should we invest our IRA contributions the first of the year or dollar cost average over the year? 24:56 Q5:  I'm 70 and am considering a combination of the 2040 target date fund and small cap value.  How much should be in each? 26:34 Q6:  Been in Ultimate Buy and Hold since 2013.  I'm thinking about simplifying by using 2 or 4 fund portfolios.  What are the pros and cons of change?  Recommended reviewing. 29:37 Q7:  Can I still rollover regular IRAs into Roth now that I am retired?   Recommended reading. 35:50 Q8:  As a risk reducer to equities can I use T-Bills and money market funds rather than any kind of bonds. 37:35

Paul starts with a general discussion of the decision to trust recent returns or make investment based on longer term returns.  He uses AVUV and ARKK as two investments you could have made in September 2019.  In the discussion he references a video where arkk creator and fund manager predicts future arkk returns.  Q: #1:  Why should future results look like the past? 16:15 Q: #2  We are in mid 50s and we think we have more money than we will need in retirement.  Is there a rule of thumb for how much money one needs?  Should one just figure out their cost of living and back into the amount needed for retirement? 26:50 Q#3  Have you done a comparison of your returns compared to Dave Ramsey's recommended portfolios? 32:55 Q #4  How can we teach young investors about the advantage of starting investing ASAP?  See the following set of PowerPoints for the ⁠⁠Orange County AAII⁠⁠.  40:02 Q #5  What is your take on Crypto Currency?  Here is what people I trust say about CC. Warren Buffett:  “In terms of cryptocurrencies, generally, I can say with almost certainty that they will come to a bad ending,” Buffett said in 2018. And his stance hasn't wavered since. According to Benzinga, Buffett believes that cryptocurrencies aren't a viable or valuable investment.  “Now if you told me you own all of the Bitcoin in the world and you offered it to me for $25, I wouldn't take it because what would I do with it? I'd have to sell it back to you one way or another. It isn't going to do anything,” Buffett said at the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder meeting in 2022. Ben Carlson:  I have no idea what will happen with bitcoin or cryptocurrencies in general in the years ahead. Anyone who thinks they know with certainty how this all plays out is delusional. But I can say that my stance on crypto has evolved over the years to the point where I think the best-case scenario just might be the new digital gold. Larry Swedroe  Swedroe took a more skeptical view of Bitcoin. He pointed out that Bitcoin's value proposition is questionable. ⁠Bitcoin⁠ has a theoretical limited supply, capped at 21 million coins. However, the existence of an unlimited number of substitute cryptocurrencies means Bitcoin faces a daunting challenge.  An asset with an unlimited supply typically sees its value approach zero. Swedroe categorized Bitcoin as a Ponzi scheme, though he acknowledged that it could achieve high trading values based on what people are willing to pay.

1.  My husband and I are moving to Fidelity to set up your Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio.  How do we make the change from our holdings to your portfolio?  Do I have to sell all of my holdings?  Plus we want to find an hourly advisor  to help.  Can you make a recommendation? 1:45   2. I have $1million in a money market fund.  Do you think it is time to start reducing the cash position and moving to short term bonds or equity ETFS? 8:45   3.  Are target date funds the same as all in one funds? 17:15   4.  I would like your guidance on the decision to put together a S&P 500 and Small Cap portfolio using 3 to 1 leveraged fu?nds.  Does the extra return justify the higher risk? 20:00   5.  How should I protect my portfolio against inflation from the loss of the petrodollar? 35:00   6.  From what I can see you have not addressed investment needs of older people in their 80s and 90s.  How should I invest?  I just can't afford to lose money at my age. 39:17   7.  Would I be dumb to have 10% of my retirement funds in gold? 46:20   8.  With the fed getting ready to lower interest rates should I move my money market funds into 10 year Treasuries? 52:40   9.  In the small cap blend and small cap value indexes it seems investors don't get the advantage of owning small companies that grow to be the giants of corporate America.  How do you get the premium when you have to sell the companies when they move beyond their index? 59:15   10.  What is the difference between your 2 Funds for Life strategy and the two fund strategy that holds the S&P 500 and small cap value? 1:01

1. What is the best glide path (asset allocation) for a 58 year old pre-retiree and then in retirement? This is the link for Chris Pedersen's 2 Funds for Life glide path. 2:50 2. I don't need all of my RMD (required minimum distribution). How should I invest the excess? Here is the link to the video on "My 12 Favorite Vanguard Funds for Retirees” and the link to all of the Fine Tuning Tables. 11:19 3. My wife has easily onset demential. It's costs $200,000 a year. How should a family invest in a situation like ours? Here is the link to the Vanguard Brokerage CDs (⁠https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/cds⁠) and ⁠stantheannuityman.com⁠ for MYGA rates.  17:18 4. What are your thoughts regarding precious metal investing? And if there is a place, what is the best way to do it? 22:52 5. Will the massive increase in passive investing, which has benefited the large cap growth indices, reduce the long term returns of small cap value? Here is the link to the long term returns Paul mentions. 28:50 6. How would the long term returns change if we overweight the U.S. 4 Fund Portfolio with slightly more small and large cap value? Here is the link to the Equity Asset Classes (1928-2023) 32:01 7. I'm 72 and my wife is 63. How different should our glide paths be? Here is the link to the Vanguard and Blackrock TDFs. 44:10 8. Are REITTs more like stocks or bonds? 46:41

On July 25, 2024 Paul and Chris made a presentation to the Puget Sound AAII.  Paul spoke to the latest research on small cap value and Chris spoke to the latest research on his 2 Funds for Life Portfolio.  Following the presentation  they answered questions from the guests. Q:  What advice do you give on conversion of regular IRAs to Roth IRAs?Q:  What investments do you recommend to offset large losses in the equity markets?Q:  Why do you recommend AVUS over VOO, or other S&P 500 funds?  In Chris' answer he recommends listeners read his AAII article on ETF Selection.  Q:  Why don't you recommend Long Term Treasury Bond fund?  Vanguard Long Term Treasury VGLTQ: Do you recommend a pension and/or Social Security  be considered the equivalent of a bond fund?Q:  Can you compare RSP (an equal weighted S&P 500 Fund) vs. SPY? Watch the full video here.

In this podcast Paul discusses an article by Truth Teller Ben Carlson (The Biggest Winners in the Stock Market), regarding a study by Dr. Hendrik Bessenbinder (Which U.S. Stocks Generated the Highest Long-Term Returns ) This study is an update from an earlier study from Bessenbinder that Paul has recommended many times.Paul also discusses an article by Truth Teller John Rekanthaler,  "When Rebalancing Creates Higher Returns—and When It Doesn't” This article adds to THE discussion of the impact of rebalancing on the latest video/podcast.

Paul, Daryl, and Chris are together again to discuss what they each think are the best single charts or graphs to help people understand investing and make good decisions. Paul starts by asking Chris and Daryl how much we can rely on the past to predict the future. Paul follows that with a deep dive into his choice for the most important chart -- the quilt chart. Daryl follows up with his choice -- a discussion of the tell-tale chart.Chris finishes with his choice: a discussion of the 2 Funds for Life Fine Tuning Table. Tables referrenced- Table J1b- Equity Returns Table K1a Table k2a Table K1b Table K8a Table K6a Table K7a Watch video here.

One of the most challenging aspects of being a 100% do-it-yourself investor (DYI) is dealing with the emotions of wanting to make major changes in a portfolio due to what may easily be seen as catastrophic news. The DYI doesn't have a professional to help them think through the difficult times like the 2008 meltdown, the October 19, 1987 22% one day decline or currently, the upcoming election results. Paul believes one of the best sources of professional support a DYI could have is George Sisti's,  "On Course Financial Planning Vectors" newsletter.  On this podcast Paul reads Sisti's July issue focused on “The Election!” as well as the misleading “noise” that investors get from the typical predictions that Wall Street produces this time of year. Paul recommends investors read George's letters anytime they are feeling uncomfortable with the market.  He even suggests that investors download his archived letters for future reading.

Paul starts the podcast discussing the upcoming (July 13, 2024) presentation for AAII Puget Sound Chapter (9-10:30).  Chris Pedersen and Paul will present, “2 Investment Decisions Guaranteed to Change Your Financial Future. ”Here is a link for more information and to sign up for this presentation.  Here is the link to sign up.Today's podcast is a discussion of the latest research from Daryl Bahls, Director of Analytics for The Merriman Financial Education Foundation.  Paul believes these new tables are likely the best teaching tool he has found to give investors a realistic idea of the future sequence of returns.  While Paul focuses on several of the 20 slides in the attachment, more of these will be discussed next week with Daryl and Chris.Paul starts his discussion with his latest update of the Equity Asset Classes (1928-2023) table. He then explains why Daryl's Quilt Charts are a better way for investors to understand the sequence of returns they are likely to experience.Paul asks listeners to send him questions from the slide deck so they can be addressed in next week's podcast with Daryl and Chris.

Join Paul as he is interviewed by Ed Fulbright, CPA and host of Mastering Your Money on WNCU 90.7 FM in Durham, N.C. How do Grandparents decide to help with education or retirement or legacy building of their grandchildren? You often recommend small cap value as the primary investment vehicle for creating legacy for your grand children.  Why did you select this investment?  You recommend a low cost strategy for $365 per year.  Can you tell our listeners about how this works?  You also have different options for people who may have older children or grandchildren.  Can we discuss those options? You suggest writing a letter to a child or grandchild.  Can we discuss the power of the letter to the child or grandchild? What is the best advice you have ever received?

The following questions were generated during a presentation Paul made to the Orange County and New York City AAII Chapters. 1. How do we go about finding someone (money manager) who follows your portfolio recommendations?  Plus what is a reasonable fee to pay for advisory services?  In the answer I do mention David Sterman. link: https://huguenotfinancialplanning.com/and two videos by Rob Berger: 5 Hidden Costs of Fee-Only Advisors and 5 Key Questions to Ask Your Investment Advisor 2.  How can I decide whether to go from 50/50 stocks and bonds to 70/30?  I suggest looking at table B1 and B9.  Include links 3. What bond durations do you recommend? 4.  What are the ETFs that you recommend for each of the equity asset classes you list? 5.  Can I share your presentation with my children?  Here is a presentation that might be good for a young person. 6.  How do I find a good money manager and what questions should I ask?  Here is a link to our free book, “Get Smart or Get Screwed:  How to Select the Best and Get the Most Out of Your Financial Advisor.”   7.  How do I get access to all of your charts and tables?  Here is lhe link to Boot Camp where you can have access to all the tables. 8.  What is your view of small cap value returns over the coming decades?  In my answer I mention Ben Carlson's article on randomness of  historical returns. And here is the new graph that Daryl Bahls proceeded to see the returns of a couple of portfolios over the same periods as Ben addressed. 

On June 8, 2024 Paul gave a 2 hour presentation to the Seattle Chapter of Choose FI.  The topics covered the 8 biggest investment decisions, plus a new piece on putting aside money for a newborn to 21 year old.  Here is the video link. This podcast covers 10 unanswered questions from the presentation, plus 5 additional topics that guests listed as most important topics of the meeting. Q&A: 1. How to find the best 3 year fixed annuity.  https://www.stantheannuityman.com/ 2.  How to select the best target date fund. 3.  Why small cap value stocks make higher returns. 4.  When do Roth conversions make sense?  Link:  https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/backdoor-roth-ira-tutorial/ 5.  What is your bottom line best portfolio without having to go through all the tables? 6.  Will Western Washington University offer financial literacy classes on their satellite campuses? 7.  What additional advice would you give to a 45 year old who wants to live on a 4% distribution for the rest of their life? 8.  What distribution advice would you have for a single person who is planning to retire before age 45? 9.  In creating your tables, how often do you rebalance the portfolios? 10.  Please explain the most important differences between an ETF and a regular mutual fund.  https://www.thebalancemoney.com/differences-between-mutual-funds-and-etfs-2466791https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/09/mutual-fund-etf.asp#:~:text=Both%20mutual%20funds%20and%20ETFs%20offer%20investors%20pooled,offer%20a%20wide%20selection%20of%20actively%20managed%20funds. More topics from the June 8 presentation: 11.  What changes should I make in my portfolio when I retire? 12.  Are low expenses the biggest decision when investing in index funds? 13.  What are the most important steps I can take to get better returns? 14.  What are the biggest (most costly) mistakes investors make? 15.  Is investing in the Total Market Index or S&P 500 all you need to reach FI?

Mavis Tsai is a friend I have known for decades. Our paths crossed as I was teaching one of my free 3 or 6 hours workshop.  In January she asked me to participate in her 5-day online event entitled,  "Confluence of Hearts: A Global Summit on True Self, Brave Connections, and a Love-Led World”  In the description of the event she noted: "Together, we will explore cutting-edge insights on reconnecting with our true selves and our fellow humans, dismantling antiquated societal structures, harnessing our passions and gifts, and co-creating a thriving future for generations to come by contributing our highest selves to the world.” We have one thing in common.  We are both trying to help people get better—but in very different ways. When she asked me to participate I begged off.  Here is a paragraph from my attempt to graciously say no. "I am trying to help people have a better financial future, and I'm willing to do it for free, but I'm not sure I fit the mold of the kind of speakers you are bringing together.  I'm an expert on investing by the numbers.  I want do-it-yourself investors to take the steps that will give them the highest probabilities of long term investment success.  Normally that means squeezing every ounce of emotion out of the process.” Mavis knows I like lists so she gave me a list I couldn't resist. 1. Your expertise in investment not only aligns with our summit's focus on creating a love-led world but is a crucial piece of it. Financial stability and wisdom empower individuals to live their true selves and make brave connections. By teaching attendees how to secure their financial future, you're offering them the freedom to pursue their passions and contribute meaningfully to society. 2. Our summit thrives on the diversity of thoughts and approaches. Your unique perspective on investing by the numbers adds an invaluable dimension to our discussions. It's about balancing the heart and mind—your approach provides the stability and clarity needed to pursue one's true passions with less financial fear. 3. Contrary to taking the passion out of investing, your method encourages a highly disciplined form of passion. It's about being passionate about our goals and the systematic pursuit of those goals. This disciplined approach is a form of emotional intelligence that is highly relevant to our attendees' journey towards a love-led life. 4. Your willingness to contribute your highest self by educating others for free is the epitome of what this summit stands for. (Your interview will be for less than an hour :)). It's about contributing to a thriving future by sharing our gifts. Your insights can help our audience make informed decisions that align with their values and long-term success. 5. Your concern about confusing your followers is understandable. Participating in this summit, however, is an opportunity to show the depth and versatility of your expertise. It's a platform to demonstrate how financial wisdom is foundational to living a fulfilled, passion-driven life, bridging your work with broader life goals. I said yes and the conversation is entitled,  "Balancing Hope and Reason: The Lifetime Path to Successful Investing.”  I hope you enjoy it.