Maximum number of independent directions within a mathematical space
Let's say your cat gets trapped in the pantry overnight and manages to chew through two bags of cat nip, spread it throughout the pantry and then have a panicked pea on top of a bucket of cashews before knocking over a vase, which smashes to the ground alerting you to the fact that she's been stuck in there all night. Or let's say you're a guy who decides to eat 40 whole chickens for 40 days. You can take those experiences and be . . . something? This episode we look into the chicken man and the cat peeing in the pantry and the scale of positive and negative experiences. SOURCES Diener, E., Wirtz, D., Tov, W., Kim-Prieto, C., Choi. D., Oishi, S., & Biswas-Diener, R. (In press). New measures of well-being: Flourishing and positive and negative feelings. Social Indicators Research. https://psychologyroots.com/scale-of-positive-and-negative-experience-spane/ Schimmack, U., Diener, E., & Oishi, S. (2002). Life-satisfaction is a momentary judgment and a stable personality characteristic: The use of chronically accessible and stable sources. Journal of Personality, 70, 345-385. Schimmack, U. & Reisenzein, R. (2002). Experiencing activation: Energetic arousal and tense arousal are not mixtures of valence and activation. Emotion, 2, 412-417 Schimmack, U., & Grob, A. (2000). Dimensional models of core affect: A quantitative comparison by means of structural equation modeling. European Journal of Personality, 14, 325-345. Diener, E., & Biswas-Diener, R. (2008) Happiness: unlocking the mysteries of psychological wealth. Malden, MA: Wiley-Blackwell.
WATCH THIS INTERVIEW: https://youtu.be/OsZAqkU0H_0 Subscribe here: https://www.youtube.com/c/PassionHarvest/ He died and saw his past, present and future! Paul Northbridge had a profound Near-Death Experience when he was 14, encountering 3 beings of Light. Paul is the author of Walk of Life - Feet on the Ground. This is his story, and this is his Passion. WATCH more of Passion Harvest: https://passionharvest.com/ LIKE Passion Harvest on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Passionharvest FOLLOW Passion Harvest on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/PassionHarvest/ FOLLOW Passion Harvest on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3BogbavOan3FP1r1JXLxmV FOLLOW Passion Harvest on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@passionharvest Thank you for watching! #PassionHarvest #PassionHarvestInterivew #Luisa
In this episode recorded on the Full Moon/Full Lunar Eclipse of 2022, Eric and Michelle have a conversation with Andrew Genovese, a Dimensional breathwork facilitator, about his 7 day fasting “vision-quest” journey in nature and how he found peace through that experience. At the end of the show, we were gifted with a short guided breathwork session. To find out more about Andrew and his offerings: www.AndrewGenoveseHealing.comIG: @BreatheHealEvolve
Learn how the feedback of others can inform your coaching and bring new insights to your coachees, as organizational psychologist Joe Hart, author of True Perspective, joins the webcast.View the complete transcript for this webcast, along with audio and video, at https://www.gallup.com/cliftonstrengths/en/404957/keeping-it-true-coaching-three-dimensional-perspective.aspxFollow UsFacebook -- https://www.facebook.com/CliftonStrengths/ LinkedIn -- https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/cliftonstrengths/Instagram -- https://www.instagram.com/cliftonstrengths/ Twitter -- https://twitter.com/CliftonStrengthPinterest -- https://www.pinterest.com/CliftonStrengths/Learn More About CliftonStrengthsSubscribe to the CliftonStrengths Newsletter -- https://bit.ly/30IjWMH How It Works -- https://bit.ly/36gD4mi 34 CliftonStrengths Themes -- https://bit.ly/30FyexO 4 CliftonStrengths Domains -- https://bit.ly/36eLvyx The History -- https://bit.ly/30OggZZ Who's It ForIndividuals -- https://bit.ly/2ukUNf1 Teams -- https://bit.ly/3axoASj Organizations -- https://bit.ly/38pj7Lm Schools -- https://bit.ly/37gPvjl Popular ProductsAssessments -- https://bit.ly/2Gi9Etf Materials and Tools -- https://bit.ly/3azKrZc Courses -- https://bit.ly/37ftuRP Books -- https://bit.ly/36jdfC2 Additional ResourcesArticles and Videos -- https://bit.ly/2TNAh19 Webcasts -- https://bit.ly/2GeKHip Guides and Reports -- https://bit.ly/37erWI0
Learn how the feedback of others can inform your coaching and bring new insights to your coachees, as organizational psychologist Joe Hart, author of True Perspective, joins the webcast. View the complete transcript for this webcast, along with audio and video, at https://www.gallup.com/cliftonstrengths/en/404957/keeping-it-true-coaching-three-dimensional-perspective.aspx Follow Us Facebook -- https://www.facebook.com/CliftonStrengths/ LinkedIn -- https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/cliftonstrengths/ Instagram -- https://www.instagram.com/cliftonstrengths/ Twitter -- https://twitter.com/CliftonStrength Pinterest -- https://www.pinterest.com/CliftonStrengths/ Learn More About CliftonStrengths Subscribe to the CliftonStrengths Newsletter -- https://bit.ly/30IjWMH How It Works -- https://bit.ly/36gD4mi 34 CliftonStrengths Themes -- https://bit.ly/30FyexO 4 CliftonStrengths Domains -- https://bit.ly/36eLvyx The History -- https://bit.ly/30OggZZ Who's It For Individuals -- https://bit.ly/2ukUNf1 Teams -- https://bit.ly/3axoASj Organizations -- https://bit.ly/38pj7Lm Schools -- https://bit.ly/37gPvjl Popular Products Assessments -- https://bit.ly/2Gi9Etf Materials and Tools -- https://bit.ly/3azKrZc Courses -- https://bit.ly/37ftuRP Books -- https://bit.ly/36jdfC2 Additional Resources Articles and Videos -- https://bit.ly/2TNAh19 Webcasts -- https://bit.ly/2GeKHip Guides and Reports -- https://bit.ly/37erWI0
WATCH THIS INTERVIEW: https://youtu.be/jBDXsBDO8AI Subscribe here: https://www.youtube.com/c/PassionHarvest/ He has had 2 near-death experiences. Greg Thompson is the author of Living with My Spirit Guides. This is his story, and this is his Passion. WATCH more of Passion Harvest: https://passionharvest.com/ LIKE Passion Harvest on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Passionharvest FOLLOW Passion Harvest on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/PassionHarvest/ FOLLOW Passion Harvest on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3BogbavOan3FP1r1JXLxmV FOLLOW Passion Harvest on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@passionharvest Thank you for watching! #PassionHarvest #PassionHarvestInterivew #NearDeathExperience
In Episode 209, our guest is “Kasey the One-Dimensional Prepper.” She has some pretty ideas about prepping and doesn't think through the ramifications - what a great way to learn the right answers. We continue the discussion in the After Show, available exclusively to Patreon supporters. Please support our sponsors US Law Shield, EMP Shield, Paul Burke - Idaho Realtor, Numanna Foods, Backwoods Home Magazine, Jared Savik - Montana Realtor, Minutemen Coffee, and My Kind CBD.
Information about today's podcast: Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA) - https://us.dimensional.com/ “The assets we(DFA)manage represent more than shares in a portfolio. That money represents the savings, sacrifice, and dreams that investors have entrusted to us. We take this responsibility seriously. Founded in 1981, Dimensional has a long history of applying academic research to practical investing. We offer a full range of equity and fixed income strategies designed to target higher expected returns.” Apollo Lupescu, PhD, Vice President, Dimensional Fund Advisors: Apollo Lupescu is vice president at Dimensional Fund Advisors, one of the premier investment managers in the world, managing around $650 billion in assets. He is a nationally and internationally recognized speaker who has delivered hundreds of lectures and seminars to financial professionals and individual investors on various investment topics. Apollo is considered “secretary of explaining stuff”, because he has a knack for explaining complicated issues in a clear and understandable way. Apollo has been with Dimensional in Santa Monica for over 18 years, and prior to that he taught at the University of California. Apollo also served in a variety of roles with the US Department of State, from which he formed his own consulting firm, Apollo Consulting Group. He received his PhD in economics and finance from UC Santa Barbara. Apollo also holds a BA in economics from Michigan State University, where he competed and coached water polo. Rumor has it that even to this day he is still playing, and more recently he is not only in the pool, but also learning how to surf in the ocean. Top Investor Myths... Common Questions & Lessons Learned: What does the evidence tell us about what to do in down markets? What do our innate biases tell us to do and why are they the opposite? 1. Myth -Successful advisors need to “time the market.” Common Question: “Clearly, the stock market is going down and going to get worse, why not just go to cash...?” The idea that an investor wants to avoid downturns in the market is an understandable and reasonable response. The challenge in the execution. Most of the time, it turns into a bigger loss and more stress than staying invested. In summary, mistiming the market comes with punishing consequences. From our experience, when someone sells their equity positions to relieve stress, they simply replace the stress of being in the market with the stress of being out of the market and wondering when they should get back in. There is no magic signal. In other words, they exchange one stress for another. We miss the best days in the market... therefore “portfolio performance could be decimated.” See JPMorgan “The Case For (Always) Staying Invested”https://www.jpmorgan.com/wealth-management/wealth-partners/insights/the-case-for-always-staying-invested#infographic-text-version-uniqId1663780633203 This chart shows the annualized performance of a $10,000 investment made between January 2002 and January 2022. A fully invested investment returned 9.4% or $60,253. When the investor missed the10 best days, the return is 5.21% or $27,604. When the investor missed the 20 best days, the return is 2.51% or $16,414. Finally, when the investor missed the 30 best days, the return is 0.32% or $10,651. An added fact is that seven of the 10 best days occurred within 15 days of the 10 worst days. 2. Myth - The Fed funds rate changes and impacts on bonds and stock returns. Common Question: “So, the Fed raises rates because the economy is strong enough to stand on its own and the stock market tanks? That doesn't make sense?” The expectations of the Fed's actions, commitment, and plan to fight inflation are very important. For example, if consumers, employers, and investors believe inflation is here to stay, then in many ways, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. If we have confidence and believe the Fed is going to take strong action to fight inflation, then people's behaviors (spending patterns) will fall in line with those expectations as well. What does recent history tell us about stock market (S&P500) performance and rising interest rate environments? Rising interest rates can and will cause short-term pain in the economy and sometimes the stock market. However, in the most recent rising rate environments the stock market has been up. From January 2000 to December 2021, five out of six years of rising interest rates the market did not drop. As an investor, “...it is critical to remember that the stock market is about purchasing ownership in public companies. And the value of the ownership depends on the profits that the company expects to make. And we'll come back to this because it is a crucial concept. If you think in terms of the value of a company like Apple, Google, Facebook, you name it, Coca-Cola, etc., it is tied to the profits that they make. The question is, is the federal funds rate a primary variable that you can link directly to the profits of the company, and are they tied directly into what that interest rate does? And what the data seems to suggest is that it is quite likely that the fed fund rate does have some impact on the profits of a company, but there does not seem to be a primary connection there that you could say, if interest rates go up, profits go down.” ~Apollo Lupescu 3. Myth -Politics and the market (the President controls the markets) Common question or comment: “If X president was in office, we would not be in this mess.” The economy and the markets become an extension of investors' emotions related to their personal politics. It is important to have personal values and political points of view; however, most investing decisions need to be data-driven. Being careful to differentiate between personal emotional biases and what the data tells us. For example: Is there an obvious pattern that would tell you that having a Republican or a Democrat is better or worse for the markets? Is there evidence to suggest which political party fared better? When you look at the historical data, it is not clear that having one president, or another is better or worse for the markets. “...In fact, President George W.Bush was extremely business-friendly, and cut taxes, specifically on investments. And yet during the eight years that he was in office, the market dropped. Should he be blamed for that? My answer is, absolutely not because 9-11 happened just as he came into office...” ~Apollo Lupescu Listen to the podcast to hear how the stock market performed when Republicans had a unified government (controlled the White House, the Senate and Congress) versus when the Democrats had a unified government. Bonus: What is the difference between Index Funds (Indexing) and the investment approach used by Dimensional Fund Advisors? What emerged in the 1970s, With the advent of computers and more rigorous data was a different way to think about investing. And the idea back then was that, okay, well, let's look at these companies. There might not be any reason why not to hold them, so let's consider them. But the idea was that instead of trying to understand the behavior of these companies and form an expectation about these companies by themselves, the idea was to create a different way of looking...And the idea is that as an investor, you want to understand not the stock itself, as much as the category to which it belongs. An idea that became known as asset-class investing.
Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: A Mystery About High Dimensional Concept Encoding, published by Fabien Roger on November 3, 2022 on The AI Alignment Forum. Epistemic status: I ran some experiments with surprising results, and I don't have a clear intuition of what it means for the way concepts are encoded in model activations. Help is welcome! [EDIT] I made a mistake while analyzing the data, and it changes some of the early interpretations of the results. It doesn't change the fact that using a classifier is a poor way of finding the directions which matter most, but it lifts most of the mystery. The mystery If you want to find the “direction” corresponding to a concept in a Large Language Model, “natural” methods fail to find a crucial direction: you need to remove >5 dimensions for the model's ability to use the concept to be affected. This seems to show that the concept is encoded in “a large number of dimensions”. But adversarial methods are able to find one direction which is quite significant (large effect when “removed”). How is that? What does that mean about how information is encoded by LLM? More details Let's say you want to remove the concept of gender from a GPT-2's activations between layers 23 and 24 (out of 48). (Both are >100 dimensional vectors). A natural thing to do is to have a bunch of sentences about guys and girls, train a linear classifier to predict if the sentence is about guys or girls, and use the direction the linear classifier gives you as the “direction corresponding to the concept of gender”. Then, you can project GPT-2's activation (at inference time) on the plane orthogonal to the direction to have the model not take gender into account anymore. This naive attempt fails: you can train a classifier to classify sentences as “guy-sentence” or “girl-sentence” based on the projected activations, and it will get 90% accuracy (down from 95%), and if you project GPT-2's activation in the middle of the network, it will make only a tiny difference in the output of the network. This is a method called INLP (Ravfogel, 2020) (the original technique removes multiple directions to obtain a measurable effect). But if you jointly train the projection and the linear classifier in an adversarial setup, you will get very different results: accuracy drops to ~50%, and GPT-2's behavior changes much more, and sometimes outputs “she” when “he” is more appropriate. This is called RLACE (Ravfogel, 2022). Why is that? The best explanation I have found to explain this discrepancy is that INLP (= using a classifier) finds the direction with the largest difference a clear separation, and it has almost no impact on model behavior. While RLACE (= using an adversarialy trained classifier and projection) finds a different direction (cosine similarity of 0.6), a direction where there is a clear separation a large difference, and it has a much greater impact on model behavior. [Edit (original images were wrong: titles were swapped)] [Edit] Here is what it looks like in the plane defined by the directions found by INLP and RLACE: INLP finds a clear separation, and RLACE uses changes with large magnitude as well as very large features. Is this something special about the distribution of neural activations? No: if you use another “natural” distribution like GLOVE word encodings (which Ravfogel's papers study), you will find that INLP fails to remove linearly available information, while RLACE is much better at it. However, that's not that surprising given the explanation above: the directions where there is a crisp distinction between two opposite concepts are not the one along which the magnitude of the changes is larger. But just because information is linearly available doesn't mean the network will be able to use it, especially if the direction you remove is one where the magnitude of the activati...
In this episode we discuss some of the fun metaphysical and ethical topics that arise in superhero stories. We may also fight a little crime, save the planet, and keep our (personal) identities hidden from an unsuspecting public. "Attack of the Mole Men" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 3.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ Fat Cartoon Jazz https://www.purple-planet.com Relaxing Ambient Scene https://www.purple-planet.com
In Episode 209, our guest is “Kasey the One-Dimensional Prepper.” She has some pretty ideas about prepping and doesn't think through the ramifications - what a great way to learn the right answers. We continue the discussion in the After Show, available exclusively to Patreon supporters. Please support our sponsors US Law Shield, EMP Shield, Paul Burke - Idaho Realtor, Numanna Foods, Backwoods Home Magazine, Jared Savik - Montana Realtor, Minutemen Coffee, and My Kind CBD. We are now part of the Firearms Radio Network. Learn more about our podcast at Prepping 2-0.com.
In Episode 209, our guest is “Kasey the One-Dimensional Prepper.” She has some pretty ideas about prepping and doesn't think through the ramifications - what a great way to learn the right answers. We continue the discussion in the After Show, available exclusively to Patreon supporters. Please support our sponsors US Law Shield, EMP Shield, Paul Burke - Idaho Realtor, Numanna Foods, Backwoods Home Magazine, Jared Savik - Montana Realtor, Minutemen Coffee, and My Kind CBD. We are now part of the Firearms Radio Network. Learn more about our podcast at Prepping 2-0.com.
WATCH THIS INTERVIEW: https://youtu.be/qTu8A4tbTJM Dr. Dain Heer is an internationally renowned author, speaker, and facilitator of consciousness and change. He is the co-creator of Access Consciousness and also known for his unique energetic transformation process, called The Energetic Synthesis of Being (ESB). Dr. Dain Heer is the author of more than 15 books on the topics of embodiment, healing, money, and relationships. This is his story, and this is his Passion. If you liked this episode, please do subscribe to our channel and let us inspire you to live a life you love. ❤️ https://www.youtube.com/c/PassionHarvest/ Thank you for watching!
Brian Potter is the author of the excellent Construction Physics blog, where he discusses why the construction industry has been slow to industrialize and innovate.He explains why:* Construction isn't getting cheaper and faster,* We should have mile-high buildings and multi-layer non-intersecting roads,* “Ugly” modern buildings are simply the result of better architecture,* China is so great at building things,* Saudi Arabia's Line is a waste of resources,* Environmental review makes new construction expensive and delayed,* and much much more!Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here.Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.More really cool guests coming up; subscribe to find out about future episodes!You may also enjoy my interviews with Tyler Cowen (about talent, collapse, & pessimism of sex). Charles Mann (about the Americas before Columbus & scientific wizardry), and Austin Vernon about (Energy Superabundance, Starship Missiles, & Finding Alpha).If you end up enjoying this episode, I would be super grateful if you share it, post it on Twitter, send it to your friends & group chats, and throw it up wherever else people might find it. Can't exaggerate how much it helps a small podcast like mine.A huge thanks to Graham Bessellieu for editing this podcast and Mia Aiyana for producing its transcript.Timestamps(0:00) - Why Saudi Arabia's Line is Insane, Unrealistic, and Never going to Exist (06:54) - Designer Clothes & eBay Arbitrage Adventures (10:10) - Unique Woes of The Construction Industry (19:28) - The Problems of Prefabrication (26:27) - If Building Regulations didn't exist… (32:20) - China's Real Estate Bubble, Unbound Technocrats, & Japan(44:45) - Automation and Revolutionary Future Technologies (1:00:51) - 3D Printer Pessimism & The Rising Cost of Labour(1:08:02) - AI's Impact on Construction Productivity(1:17:53) - Brian Dreams of Building a Mile High Skyscraper(1:23:43) - Deep Dive into Environmentalism and NEPA(1:42:04) - Software is Stealing Talent from Physical Engineering(1:47:13) - Gaps in the Blog Marketplace of Ideas(1:50:56) - Why is Modern Architecture So Ugly?(2:19:58) - Advice for Aspiring Architects and Young Construction PhysicistsTranscriptWhy Saudi Arabia's Line is Insane, Unrealistic, and Never going to Exist Dwarkesh Patel Today, I have the pleasure of speaking with Brian Potter, who is an engineer and the author of the excellent Construction Physics blog, where he writes about how the construction industry works and why it has been slow to industrialize and innovate. It's one of my favorite blogs on the internet, and I highly, highly recommend that people check it out. Brian, my first question is about The Line project in Saudi Arabia. What are your opinions? Brian Potter It's interesting how Saudi Arabia and countries in the Middle East, in general, are willing to do these big, crazy, ambitious building projects and pour huge amounts of money into constructing this infrastructure in a way that you don't see a huge amount in the modern world. China obviously does this too in huge amounts, some other minor places do as well, but in general, you don't see a whole lot of countries building these big, massive, incredibly ambitious projects. So on that level, it's interesting, and it's like, “Yes, I'm glad to see that you're doing this,” but the actual project is clearly insane and makes no sense. Look at the physical arrangement layout–– there's a reason cities grow in two dimensions. A one-dimensional city is the worst possible arrangement for transportation. It's the maximum amount of distance between any two points. So just from that perspective, it's clearly crazy, and there's no real benefit to it other than perhaps some weird hypothetical transportation situation where you had really fast point-to-point transportation. It would probably be some weird bullet train setup; maybe that would make sense. But in general, there's no reason to build a city like that. Even if you wanted to build an entirely enclosed thing (which again doesn't make a huge amount of sense), you would save so much material and effort if you just made it a cube. I would be more interested in the cube than the line. [laughs] But yeah, those are my initial thoughts on it. I will be surprised if it ever gets built. Dwarkesh Patel Are you talking about the cube from the meme about how you can put all the humans in the world in a cube the size of Manhattan? Brian Potter Something like that. If you're just going to build this big, giant megastructure, at least take advantage of what that gets you, which is minimum surface area to volume ratio.Dwarkesh Patel Why is that important? Would it be important for temperature or perhaps other features? Brian Potter This is actually interesting because I'm actually not sure how sure it would work with a giant single city. In general, a lot of economies of scale come from geometric effects. When something gets bigger, your volume increases a lot faster than your surface area does. So for something enclosed, like a tank or a pipe, the cost goes down per thing of unit you're transporting because you can carry a larger amount or a smaller amount of material. It applies to some extent with buildings and construction because the exterior wall assembly is a really burdensome, complicated, and expensive assembly. A building with a really big floor plate, for instance, can get more area per unit, per amount of exterior wall. I'm not sure how that actually works with a single giant enclosed structure because, theoretically, on a small level, it would apply the same way. Your climate control is a function of your exterior surface, at some level, and you get more efficient climate control if you have a larger volume and less area that it can escape from. But for a giant city, I actually don't know if that works, and it may be worse because you're generating so much heat that it's now harder to pump out. For examples like the urban heat island effect, where these cities generate massive amounts of waste heat, I don't know if that would work if it didn't apply the same way. I'm trying to reach back to my physics classes in college, so I'm not sure about the actual mechanics of that. Generally though, that's why you'd want to perhaps build something of this size and shape. Dwarkesh Patel What was the thought process behind designing this thing? Because Scott Alexander had a good blog post about The Line where he said, presumably, that The Line is designed to take up less space and to use less fuel because you can just use the same transportation across. But the only thing that Saudi Arabia has is space and fuel. So what is the thought process behind this construction project? Brian PotterI get the sense that a lot of committees have some amount of success in building big, impressive, physical construction projects that are an attraction just by virtue of their size and impressiveness. A huge amount of stuff in Dubai is something in this category, and they have that giant clock tower in Jeddah, the biggest giant clock building and one of the biggest buildings in the world, or something like that. I think, on some level, they're expecting that you would just see a return from building something that's really impressive or “the biggest thing on some particular axis”. So to some extent, I think they're just optimizing for big and impressive and maybe not diving into it more than that. There's this theory that I think about every so often. It's called the garbage can theory of organizational decision-making, which basically talks about how the choices that organizations make are not the result of any particular recent process. They are the result of how, whenever a problem comes up, people reach into the garbage can of potential solutions. Then whatever they pull out of the garbage can, that's the decision that they end up going with, regardless of how much sense it makes. It was a theory that was invented by academics to describe decision-making in academia. I think about that a lot, especially with reference to big bureaucracies and governments. You can just imagine the draining process of how these decisions evolve. Any random decision can be made, especially when there's such a disconnect between the decision-makers and technical knowledge.Designer Clothes & eBay Arbitrage Adventures Dwarkesh PatelTell me about your eBay arbitrage with designer clothes. Brian Potter Oh man, you really did dive deep. Yeah, so this was a small business that I ran seven or eight years ago at this point. A hobby of mine was high-end men's fashion for a while, which is a very strange hobby for an engineer to have, but there you go. That hobby centers around finding cheap designer stuff, because buying new can be overwhelmingly expensive. However, a lot of times, you can get clothes for a very cheap price if you're even a little bit motivated. Either it shows up on eBay, or it shows up in thrift stores if you know what to look for. A lot of these clothes can last because they're well-made. They last a super, super, super long time–– even if somebody wore it for 10 years or something, it could be fine. So a lot of this hobby centered around finding ways to get really nice clothes cheaply. Majority of it was based around eBay, but it was really tedious to find really nice stuff on eBay. You had to manually search for a bunch of different brands, filter out the obviously bad ones, search for typos in brands, put in titles, and stuff like that. I was in the process of doing this, and I thought, “Oh, this is really annoying. I should figure out a way to automate this process.” So I made a very simple web app where when you searched for shoes or something, it would automatically search the very nice brands of shoes and all the typos of the brand name. Then it would just filter out all the junk and let you search through the good stuff. I set up an affiliate system, basically. So anybody else that used it, I would get a kick of the sales. While I was interested in that hobby, I ran this website for a few years, and it was reasonably successful. It was one of the first things I did that got any real traction on the internet, but it was never successful in proportion to how much effort it took to maintain and update it. So as I moved away from the hobby, I eventually stopped putting time and effort into maintaining the website. I'm curious as to how you even dug that up. Dwarkesh Patel I have a friend who was with you at the Oxford Refugees Conference, Connor Tabarrok. I don't know if you remember him. Brian Potter Nice. Dwarkesh Patel Yeah. Finding other information about you on the internet was quite difficult actually. You've somehow managed to maintain your anonymity. If you're willing to reveal, what was the P&L of this project? Brian Potter Oh, it made maybe a few hundred dollars a month for a few years, but I only ever ran it as a side hobby business, basically. So in terms of time per my effort or whatever, I'm sure it was very low. Pennies to an hour or something like that. Unique Woes of The Construction Industry Dwarkesh Patel A broad theme that I've gotten from your post is that the construction industry is plagued with these lossy feedback loops, a lack of strong economies of scale, regulation, and mistakes being very costly. Do you think that this is a general characteristic of many industries in our world today, or is there something unique about construction? Brian Potter Interesting question. One thing you think of is that there are a lot of individual factors that are not unique at all. Construction is highly regulated, but it's not necessarily more regulated than medical devices or jet travel, or even probably cars, to some extent, which have a whole vat of performance criteria they need to hit. With a couple of things like land use, for example, people say, “Oh, the land requirements, could you build it on-site,” explaining how those kinds of things make it difficult. But there is a lot that falls into this category that doesn't really share the same structure of how the construction industry works.I think it's the interaction of all those effects. One thing that I think is perhaps underappreciated is that the systems of a building are really highly coupled in a way that a lot of other things are. If you're manufacturing a computer, the hard drive is somewhat independent from the display and somewhat independent from the power supply. These things are coupled, but they can be built by independent people who don't necessarily even talk to each other before being assembled into one structured thing. A building is not really like that at all. Every single part affects every single other part. In some ways, it's like biology. So it's very hard to change something that doesn't end up disrupting something else. Part of that is because a job's building is to create a controlled interior environment, meaning, every single system has to run through and around the surfaces that are creating that controlled interior. Everything is touching each other. Again, that's not unique. Anything really highly engineered, like a plane or an iPhone, share those characteristics to some extent. In terms of the size of it and the relatively small amount you're paying in terms of unit size or unit mass, however, it's quite low. Dwarkesh Patel Is transportation cost the fundamental reason you can't have as much specialization and modularity?Brian Potter Yeah, I think it's really more about just the way a building is. An example of this would be how for the electrical system of your house, you can't have a separate box where if you needed to replace the electrical system, you could take the whole box out and put the new box in. The electrical system runs through the entire house. Same with plumbing. Same with the insulation. Same with the interior finishes and stuff like that. There's not a lot of modularity in a physical sense. Dwarkesh Patel Gotcha. Ben Kuhn had this interesting comment on your article where he pointed out that many of the reasons you give for why it's hard to innovate in construction, like sequential dependencies and the highly variable delivery timelines are also common in software where Ben Koon works. So why do you think that the same sort of stagnation has not hit other industries that have superficially similar characteristics, like software? Brian Potter How I think about that is that you kind of see a similar structure in anything that's project-based or anything where there's an element of figuring out what you're doing while you're doing it. Compared to a large-scale manufacturing option where you spend a lot of time figuring out what exactly it is that you're building. You spend a lot of time designing it to be built and do your first number of runs through it, then you tweak your process to make it more efficient. There's always an element of tweaking it to make it better, but to some extent, the process of figuring out what you're doing is largely separate from the actual doing of it yourself. For a project-based industry, it's not quite like that. You have to build your process on the fly. Of course, there are best practices that shape it, right? For somebody writing a new software project or anything project-based, like making a movie, they have a rough idea for how it's going to go together. But there's going to be a lot of unforeseen things that kind of come up like that. The biggest difference is that either those things can often scale in a way that you can't with a building. Once you're done with the software project, you can deploy it to 1,000 or 100,000, or 1 million people, right? Once you finish making a movie, 100 million people can watch it or whatever. It doesn't quite look the same with a building. You don't really have the ability to spend a lot of time upfront figuring out how this thing needs to go. You kind of need to figure out a way to get this thing together without spending a huge amount of time that would be justified by the sheer size of it. I was able to dig up a few references for software projects and how often they just have these big, long tails. Sometimes they just go massively, massively over budget. A lot of times, they just don't get completed at all, which is shocking, but because of how many people it can then be deployed to after it's done, the economics of it are slightly different. Dwarkesh Patel I see, yeah. There's a famous law in software that says that a project will take longer than you expect even after you recount for the fact that it will take longer than you expect. Brian Potter Yeah. Hofstadter's law or something like that is what I think it is. Dwarkesh Patel Yeah. I'm curious about what the lack of skill in construction implies for startups. Famously, in software, the fact that there's zero marginal cost to scaling to the next customer is a huge boon to a startup, right? The entire point of which is scaling exponentially. Does that fundamentally constrain the size and quantity of startups you can have in construction if the same scaling is not available?Brian Potter Yeah, that's a really good question. The obvious first part of the answer is that for software, obviously, if you have a construction software company, you can scale it just like any other software business. For physical things, it is a lot more difficult. This lack of zero marginal cost has tended to fight a lot of startups, not just construction ones. But yeah, it's definitely a thing. Construction is particularly brutal because the margins are so low. The empirical fact is that trying what would be a more efficient method of building doesn't actually allow you to do it cheaper and get better margins. The startup that I used to work at, Katerra, their whole business model was basically predicated on that. “Oh, we'll just build all our buildings in these big factories, get huge economies of scale, reduce our costs, and then recoup the billions of dollars that we're pumping into this industry or business.” The math just does not work out. You can't build. In general, you can't build cheap enough to kind of recoup those giant upfront costs. A lot of businesses have been burned that way. The most success you see in prefabrication type of stuff is on the higher end of things where you can get higher margins. A lot of these prefab companies and stuff like that tend to target the higher end of the market, and you see a few different premiums for that. Obviously, if you're targeting the higher end, you're more likely to have higher margins. If you're building to a higher level of quality, that's easier to do in a factory environment. So the delta is a lot different, less enormous than it would be. Building a high level of quality is easier to do in a factory than it is in the field, so a lot of buildings or houses that are built to a really high level of energy performance, for instance, need a really, really high level of air sealing to minimize how much energy this house uses. You tend to see a lot more houses like that built out of prefab construction and other factory-built methods because it's just physically more difficult to achieve that on-site. The Problems of Prefabrication Dwarkesh Patel Can you say more about why you can't use prefabrication in a factory to get economies of scale? Is it just that the transportation costs will eat away any gains you get? What is going on? Brian PotterThere's a combination of effects. I haven't worked through all this, we'll have to save this for the next time. I'll figure it out more by then. At a high level, it's that basically the savings that you get from like using less labor or whatever is not quite enough to offset your increased transportation costs. One thing about construction, especially single-family home construction, is that a huge percentage of your costs are just the materials that you're using, right? A single-family home is roughly 50% labor and 50% materials for the construction costs. Then you have development costs, land costs, and things like that. So a big chunk of that, you just can't move to the factory at all, right? You can't really build a foundation in a factory. You could prefab the foundation, but it doesn't gain you anything. Your excavation still has to be done on-site, obviously. So a big chunk can't move to the factory at all. For ones that can, you still basically have to pay the same amount for materials. Theoretically, if you're building truly huge volume, you could get material volume discounts, but even then, it's probably not looking at things like asset savings. So you can cut out a big chunk of your labor costs, and you do see that in factory-built construction, right? These prefab companies are like mobile home companies. They have a small fraction of labor as their costs, which is typical of a factory in general, but then they take out all that labor cost while they still have their high material costs, and then they have overhead costs of whatever the factory has cost them. Then you have your additional overhead cost of just transporting it to site, which is pretty limited. The math does not really work out in favor of prefab, in terms of being able to make the cost of building dramatically cheaper. You can obviously build a building in a prefab using prefab-free methods and build a successful construction business, right? Many people do. But in terms of dramatically lowering your costs, you don't really see that. Dwarkesh Patel Yeah, yeah. Austin Vernon has an interesting blog post about why there's not more prefabricated homes. The two things he points out were transportation costs, and the other one was that people prefer to have homes that have unique designs or unique features. When I was reading it, it actually occurred to me that maybe they're actually both the result of the same phenomenon. I don't know if I'm pronouncing it correctly, but have you heard of the Alchian-Allen theorem in economics? Brian Potter Maybe, but I don't think so. Dwarkesh Patel Basically, it's the idea that if you increase the cost of some category of goods in a fixed way––let's say you tax oranges and added a $1 tax to all oranges, or transportation for oranges gets $1 more expensive for all oranges––people will shift consumption towards the higher grade variety because now, the ratio of the cost between the higher, the more expensive orange and the less expensive orange has decreased because of the increase in fixed costs. It seems like you could use that argument to also explain why people have strong preferences for uniqueness and all kinds of design in manufactured houses. Since transportation costs are so high, that's basically a fixed cost, and that fixed cost has the effect of making people shift consumption towards higher-grade options. I definitely think that's true. Brian PotterI would maybe phrase this as, “The construction industry makes it relatively comparatively cheap to deliver a highly customized option compared to a really repetitive option.” So yeah, the ratio between a highly customized one and just a commodity one is relatively small. So you see a kind of industry built around delivering somewhat more customized options. I do think that this is a pretty broad intuition that people just desire too much customization from their homes. That really prevents you from having a mass-produced offering. I do think that is true to some extent. One example is the Levittown houses, which were originally built in huge numbers–– exactly the same model over and over again. Eventually, they had to change their business model to be able to deliver more customized options because the market shipped it. I do think that the effect of that is basically pretty overstated. Empirically, you see that in practice, home builders and developers will deliver fairly repetitive housing. They don't seem to have a really hard time doing that. As an example, I'm living in a new housing development that is just like three or four different houses copy-pasted over and over again in a group of 50. The developer is building a whole bunch of other developments that are very similar in this area. My in-laws live in a very similar development in a whole different state. If you just look like multi-family or apartment housing, it's identical apartments, you know, copy-pasted over and over again in the same building or a bunch of different buildings in the same development. You're not seeing huge amounts of uniqueness in these things. People are clearly willing to just live in these basically copy-pasted apartments. It's also quite possible to get a pretty high amount of product variety using a relatively small number of factors that you vary, right? I mean, the car industry is like this, where there are enough customization options. I was reading this book a while ago that was basically pushing back against the idea that the car industry pre-fifties and sixties we just offering a very uniform product. They basically did the math, and the number of customization options on their car was more than the atoms in the universe. Basically just, there are so many different options. All the permutations, you know, leather seats and this type of stereo and this type of engine, if you add it all up, there's just a huge, massive number of different combinations. Yeah, you can obviously customize the house a huge amount, just by the appliances that you have and the finishes that are in there and the paint colors that you choose and the fixtures and stuff like that. It would not really theoretically change the underlying way the building comes together. So regarding the idea that the fundamental demand for variety is a major obstruction, I don't think there's a whole lot of evidence for that in the construction industry. If Construction Regulation Vanished… Dwarkesh Patel I asked Twitter about what I should ask you, and usually, I don't get interesting responses but the quality of the people and the audience that knows who you are was so high that actually, all the questions I got were fascinating. So I'm going to ask you some questions from Twitter. Brian Potter Okay. Dwarkesh Patel 0:26:45Connor Tabarrok asks, “What is the most unique thing that would or should get built in the absence of construction regulation?”Brian Potter Unique is an interesting qualifier. There are a lot of things that just like should get built, right? Massive amounts of additional housing and creating more lands in these really dense urban environments where we need it, in places like San Francisco–– just fill in a big chunk of that bay. It's basically just mud flat and we should put more housing on it. “Unique thing” is more tricky. One idea that I really like (I read this in the book, The Book Where's My Flying Car), is that it's basically crazy that our cities are designed with roads that all intersect with each other. That's an insane way to structure a material flow problem. Any sane city would be built with multiple layers of like transportation where each one went in a different direction so your flows would just be massively, massively improved. That just seems like a very obvious one.If you're building your cities from scratch and had your druthers, you would clearly want to build them and know how big they were gonna get, right? So you could plan very long-term in a way that so these transportation systems didn't intersect with each other, which, again, almost no cities did. You'd have the space to scale them or run as much throughput through them as you need without bringing the whole system to a halt. There's a lot of evidence saying that cities tend to scale based on how much you can move from point A to point B through them. I do wonder whether if you changed the way they went together, you could unlock massively different cities. Even if you didn't unlock massive ones, you could perhaps change the agglomeration effects that you see in cities if people could move from point A to point B much quicker than they currently can. Dwarkesh Patel Yeah, I did an episode about the book, where's my flying car with Rohit Krishnan. I don't know if we discussed this, but an interesting part of the book is where he talks about transistor design. If you design transistors this way, can you imagine how slow they would be? [laughs] Okay, so Simon Grimm asks, “What countries are the best at building things?”Brian Potter This is a good question. I'm going to sort of cheat a little bit and do it in terms of space and time, because I think most countries that are doing a good job at building massive amounts of stuff are not ones that are basically doing it currently.The current answer is like China, where they just keep building–– more concrete was used in the last 20 years or so than the entire world used in the time before that, right? They've accomplished massive amounts of urbanization, and built a lot of really interesting buildings and construction. In terms of like raw output, I would also put Japan in the late 20th century on there. At the peak of the concern and wonder of “Is Japan gonna take over the world?”, they were really interested in building stuff quite quickly. They spent a lot of time and effort trying to use their robotics expertise to try to figure out how to build buildings a lot more quickly. They had these like really interesting factories that were designed to basically extrude an entire skyscraper just going up vertically.All these big giant companies and many different factories were trying to develop and trying to do this with robotics. It was a really interesting system that did not end up ever making economic sense, but it is very cool. I think big industrial policy organs of the government basically encouraged a lot of these industrial companies to basically develop prefabricated housing systems. So you see a lot of really interesting systems developed from these sort of industrial companies in a way that you don't see in a lot of other places. From 1850 to maybe 1970 (like a hundred years or something), the US was building huge massive amounts of stuff in a way that lifted up huge parts of the economy, right? I don't know how many thousands of miles of railroad track the US built between like 1850 and 1900, but it was many, many, many thousands of miles of it. Ofcourse, needing to lay all this track and build all these locomotives really sort of forced the development of the machine tool industry, which then led to the development of like better manufacturing methods and interchangeable parts, which of course then led to the development of the automotive industry. Then ofcourse, that explosion just led to even more big giant construction projects. So you really see that this ability to build just big massive amounts of stuff in this virtuous cycle with the US really advanced a lot of technology to raise the standard of development for a super long period of time. So those are my three answers. China's Real Estate Bubble, Unbound Technocrats, and JapanDwarkesh Patel Those three bring up three additional questions, one for each of them! That's really interesting. Have you read The Power Broker, the book about Robert Moses? Brian Potter I think I got a 10th of the way through it. Dwarkesh Patel That's basically a whole book in itself, a 10th of the way. [laughs] I'm a half of the way through, and so far it's basically about the story of how this one guy built a startup within the New York state government that was just so much more effective at building things, didn't have the same corruption and clientelism incompetence. Maybe it turns into tragedy in the second half, but so far it's it seems like we need this guy. Where do we get a second Robert Moses? Do you think that if you had more people like that in government or in construction industries, public works would be more effectively built or is the stagnation there just a result of like other bigger factors? Brian Potter That's an interesting question. I remember reading this article a while ago that was complaining about how horrible Penn Station is in New York. They're basically saying, “Yeah, it would be nice to return to the era of like the sort of unbound technocrat” when these technical experts in high positions of power in government could essentially do whatever they wanted to some extent. If they thought something should be built somewhere, they basically had the power to do it. It's a facet of this problem of how it's really, really hard to get stuff built in the US currently. I'm sure that a part of it is that you don't see these really talented technocrats occupy high positions of government where they can get stuff done. But it's not super obvious to me whether that's the limiting factor. I kind of get the sense that they would end up being bottlenecked by some other part of the process. The whole sort of interlocking set of institutions has just become so risk averse that they would end up just being blocked in a way that they wouldn't when they were operating in the 1950s or 1960s.Dwarkesh Patel Yeah, yeah, that's interesting. All right, so speaking of Japan, I just recently learned about the construction there and how they just keep tearing stuff down every 30 to 40 years and rebuilding it. So you have an interesting series of posts on how you would go about building a house or a building that lasts for a thousand years. But I'm curious, how would you build a house or a building that only lasts for 30 or 40 years? If you're building in Japan and you know they're gonna tear it down soon, what changes about the construction process? Brian Potter Yeah, that's interesting. I mean, I'm not an expert on Japanese construction, but I think like a lot of their interior walls are basically just paper and stuff like that. I actually think it's kind of surprising that last time I looked, for a lot of their homes, they use a surprising post and beam construction method, which is actually somewhat labor-intensive to do. The US in the early 1800s used a pretty similar method. Then once we started mass producing conventional lumber, we stopped doing that because it was much cheaper to build out of two-by-fours than it was to build big heavy posts. I think the boring answer to that question is that we'd build like how we build mobile homes–– essentially just using pretty thin walls, pretty low-end materials that are put together in a minimal way. This ends up not being that different from the actual construction method that single-family homes use. It just even further economizes and tightens the use of materials–– where a single-family home might use a half inch plywood, they might try to use three-sixteenths or even an eighth inch plywood or something like that. So we'd probably build a pretty similar way to the way most single-family homes and multi-family homes are built currently, but just with even tighter use of materials which perhaps is something that's not super nice about the way that you guys build your homes. But... [laughs]Dwarkesh Patel Okay, so China is the third one here. There's been a lot of talk about a potential real estate bubble in China because they're building housing in places where people don't really need it. Of course, maybe the demographics aren't there to support the demand. What do you think of all this talk? I don't know if you're familiar with it, but is there a real estate bubble that's created by all this competence in building? Brian PotterOh, gosh, yeah, I have no idea. Like you, I've definitely heard talk of it and I've seen the little YouTube clips of them knocking down all these towers that it turns out they didn't need or the developer couldn't, finish or whatever. I don't know a huge amount about that. In general, I wish I knew a lot more about how things are built in China, but the information is in general, so opaque. I generally kind of assume that any particular piece of data that comes out of China has giant error bars on it as to whether it's true or not or what the context surrounding it is. So in general, I do not have a hard opinion about that. Dwarkesh Patel This is the second part of Simon's question, does greater competence and being able to build stuff translate into other good outcomes for these countries like higher GDP or lower rents or other kinds of foreign outcomes? Brian Potter That's a good question. Japan is an interesting place where basically people point to it as an example of, “Here's a country that builds huge amounts of housing and they don't have housing cost increases.” In general, we should expect that dynamic to be true. Right? There's no reason to not think that housing costs are essentially a supply-demand problem where if you built as much as people wanted, the cost would drop. I have no reason to not think that's true. There is a little bit of evidence that sort of suggests that it's impossible to build housing enough to overcome this sort of mechanical obstacle where the cost of it tends to match and rise to whatever people's income level are. The peak and the sort of flattening of housing costs in Japan also parallel when people basically stopped getting raises and income stopped rising in Japan. So I don't have a good sense of, if it ends up being just more driven by some sort of other factors. Generally though I expect the very basic answer of “If you build a lot more houses, the housing will become cheaper.”Dwarkesh PatelRight. Speaking of how the land keeps gaining value as people's income go up, what is your opinion on Georgism? Does that kind of try and make you think that housing is a special asset that needs to be more heavily taxed because you're not inherently doing something productive just by owning land the way you would be if you like built a company or something similar?Brian Potter I don't have any special deep knowledge of Georgism. It's on my list of topics to read more deeply about. I do think in general, taxing encourages you to produce less of something for something that you can't produce less of. It's a good avenue for something to tax more heavily. And yeah, obviously if you had a really high land value tax in these places that have a lot of single-family homes in dense urban areas, like Seattle or San Francisco, that would probably encourage people to use the land a lot more efficiently. So it makes sense to me, but I don't have a ton of special knowledge about it. Dwarkesh Patel All right, Ben Kuhn asked on Twitter, “What construction-related advice would you give to somebody building a new charter city?”Brian Potter That is interesting. I mean, just off the top of my head, I would be interested in whether you could really figure out a way to build using a method that had really high upfront costs. I think it could otherwise be justified, but if you're gonna build 10,000 buildings or whatever all at once, you could really take advantage of that. One kind of thing that you see in the sort of post-World War II era is that we're building huge massive amounts of housing, and a lot of times we're building them all in one place, right? A lot of town builders were building thousands and thousands of houses in one big development all at once. In California, it's the same thing, you just built like 6 or 10 or 15,000 houses in one big massive development. You end up seeing something like that where they basically build this like little factory on their construction site, and then use that to like fabricate all these things. Then you have something that's almost like a reverse assembly line where a crew will go to one house and install the walls or whatever, and then go to the next house and do the same thing. Following right behind them would be the guys doing the electrical system, plumbing, and stuff like that. So this reverse assembly line system would allow you to sort of get these things up really, really fast, in 30 days or something like that. Then you could have a whole house or just thousands and thousands of houses at once. You would want to be able to do something similar where you could just not do the instruction the way that the normal construction is done, but that's hard, right? Centrally planned cities or top-down planned cities never seem to do particularly well, right? For example, the city of Brasilia, the one that was supposed to be a planned city— the age it goes back to the unfettered technocrat who can sort of build whatever he wants. A lot of times, what you want is something that will respond at a low level and organically sort out the factories as they develop. You don't want something that's totally planned from the top-down, that's disconnected from all the sorts of cases on the ground. A lot of the opposition to Robert Moses ended up being that in a certain form, right? He's bulldozing through these cities that are these buildings and neighborhoods that he's not paying attention to at all. So I think, just to go back to the question, trying to plan your city from the top down doesn't have a super, super great track record. In general, you want your city to develop a little bit more organically. I guess I would think to have a good sort of land-use rules that are really thought through well and encourage the things that you want to encourage and not discourage the things that you don't want to discourage. Don't have equity in zoning and allow a lot of mixed-use construction and stuff like that. I guess that's a somewhat boring answer, but I'd probably do something along those lines. Dwarkesh Patel Interesting, interesting. I guess that implies that there would be high upfront costs to building a city because if you need to build 10,000 homes at once to achieve these economies of scale, then you would need to raise like tens of billions of dollars before you could build a charter city. Brian Potter Yeah, if you were trying to lower your costs of construction, but again, if you have the setup to do that, you wouldn't necessarily need to raise it. These other big developments were built by developers that essentially saw an opportunity. They didn't require public funding to do it. They did in the form of loan guarantees for veterans and things like that, but they didn't have the government go and buy the land. Automation and Revolutionary Future Technologies Dwarkesh Patel Right, okay, so the next question is from Austin Vernon. To be honest, I don't understand the question, you two are too smart for me, but hopefully, you'll be able to explain the question and then also answer it. What are your power rankings for technologies that can tighten construction tolerances? Then he gives examples like ARVR, CNC cutting, and synthetic wood products. Brian Potter Yeah, so this is a very interesting question. Basically, because buildings are built manually on site by hand, there's just a lot of variation in what ends up being built, right? There's only so accurately that a person can put something in place if they don't have any sort of age or stuff like that. Just the placement itself of materials tends to have a lot of variation in it and the materials themselves also have a lot of variation in them. The obvious example is wood, right? Where one two by four is not gonna be exactly the same as another two by four. It may be warped, it may have knots in it, it may be split or something like that. Then also because these materials are sitting just outside in the elements, they sort of end up getting a lot of distortion, they either absorb moisture and sort of expand and contract, or they grow and shrink because of the heat. So there's just a lot of variation that goes into putting a building up.To some extent, it probably constrains what you are able to build and how effectively you're able to build it. I kind of gave an example before of really energy efficient buildings and they're really hard to build on-site using conventional methods because the air ceiling is quite difficult to do. You have to build it in a much more precise way than what is typically done and is really easily achieved on-site. So I guess in terms of examples of things that would make that easier, he gives some good ones like engineered lumber, which is where you take lumber and then grind it up into strands or chips or whatever and basically glue them back together–– which does a couple of things. It spreads all the knots and the defects out so they are concentrated and everything tends to be a lot more uniform when it's made like that. So that's a very obvious one that's already in widespread use. I don't really see that making a substantial change.I guess the one exception to that would be this engineered lumber product called mass timber elements, CLT, which is like a super plywood. Plywood is made from tiny little sheet thin strips of wood, right? But CLT is made from two-by-four-dimensional lumber glued across laminated layers. So instead of a 4 by 9 sheet of plywood, you have a 12 by 40 sheet of dimensional lumber glued together. You end up with a lot of the properties of engineered material where it's really dimensionally stable. It can be produced very, very accurately. It's actually funny that a lot of times, the CLT is the most accurate part of the building. So if you're building a building with it, you tend to run into problems where the rest of the building is not accurate enough for it. So even with something like steel, if you're building a steel building, the steel is not gonna be like dead-on accurate, it's gonna be an inch or so off in terms of where any given component is. The CLT, which is built much more accurately, actually tends to show all these errors that have to be corrected. So in some sense, accuracy or precision is a little bit of like a tricky thing because you can't just make one part of the process more precise. In some ways that actually makes things more difficult because if one part is really precise, then a lot of the time, it means that you can't make adjustments to it easily. So if you have this one really precise thing, it usually means you have to go and compensate for something else that is not built quite as precisely. It actually makes advancing precision quite a bit more complicated. AR VR, is something I'm very bullish on. A big caveat of that is assuming that they can just get the basic technology working. The basic intuition there is that right now the way that pieces are, when a building is put together on site, somebody is looking at a set of paper plans, or an iPad or something that tells them where everything needs to go. So they figure that out and then they take a tape measure or use some other method and go figure out where that's marked on the ground. There's all this set-up time that is really quite time consuming and error prone. Again, there's only so much accuracy that a guy dragging a tape 40 feet across site being held by another guy can attain, there's a limit to how accurate that process can be. It's very easy for me to imagine that AR would just project exactly where the components of your building need to go. That would A, allow you a much higher level of accuracy that you can easily get using manual methods. And then B, just reduce all that time it takes to manually measure things. I can imagine it being much, much, much faster as well, so I'm quite bullish on that. At a high level and a slightly lower level, it's not obvious to me if they will be able to get to the level where it just projects it with perfect accuracy right in front of you. It may be the case that a person moving their head around and constantly changing their point of view wont ever be able to project these things with millimeter precision––it's always gonna be a little bit jumpy or you're gonna end up with some sort of hard limit in terms of like how precisely you can project it. My sense is that locator technology will get good enough, but I don't have any principle reason believing that. The other thing is that being able to take advantage of that technology would require you to have a really, really accurate model of your building that locates where every single element is precisely and exactly what its tolerances are. Right now, buildings aren't designed like that, they are built using a comparatively sparse set of drawings that leaves a lot to sort of be interpreted by the people on site doing the work and efforts that have tried to make these models really, really, really precise, have not really paid off a lot of times. You can get returns on it if you're building something really, really complex where there's a much higher premium to being able to make sure you don't make any error, but for like a simple building like a house, the returns just aren't there. So you see really comparatively sparse drawings. Whether it's gonna be able to work worth this upfront cost of developing this really complex, very precise model of where exactly every component is still has to be determined. There's some interesting companies that are trying to move in this direction where they're making it a lot easier to draw these things really, really precisely and whave every single component exactly where it is. So I'm optimistic about that as well, but it's a little bit TBD. Dwarkesh Patel This raises a question that I actually wanted to ask you, which is in your post about why there aren't automatic brick layers. It was a really interesting post. Somebody left in an interesting comment saying that bricks were designed to be handled and assembled by humans. Then you left a response to that, which I thought was really interesting. You said, “The example I always reach for is with steam power and electricity, where replacing a steam engine with an electric motor in your factory didn't do much for productivity. Improving factory output required totally redesigning the factory around the capabilities of electric motors.” So I was kind of curious about if you apply that analogy to construction, then what does that look like for construction? What is a house building process or building building process that takes automation and these other kinds of tools into account? How would that change how buildings are built and how they end up looking in the end? Brian Potter I think that's a good question. One big component of the lack of construction productivity is everything was designed and has evolved over 100 years or 200 years to be easy for a guy or person on the site to manipulate by hand. Bricks are roughly the size and shape and weight that a person can move it easily around. Dimensional lumber is the same. It's the size and shape and weight that a person can move around easily. And all construction materials are like this and the way that they attach together and stuff is the same. It's all designed so that a person on site can sort of put it all together with as comparatively little effort as possible. But what is easy for a person to do is usually not what is easy for a machine or a robot to do, right? You typically need to redesign and think about what your end goal is and then redesign the mechanism for accomplishing that in terms of what is easy to get to make a machine to do. The obvious example here is how it's way easier to build a wagon or a cart that pulls than it is to build a mechanical set of legs that mimics a human's movement. That's just way, way, way easier. I do think that a big part of advancing construction productivity is to basically figure out how to redesign these building elements in a way that is really easy for a machine to produce and a machine to put together. One reason that we haven't seen it is that a lot of the mechanization you see is people trying to mechanize exactly what a person does. You'd need a really expensive industrial robot that can move exactly the way that a human moves more or less. What that might look like is basically something that can be really easily extruded by a machine in a continuous process that wouldn't require a lot of finicky mechanical movements. A good example of this technology is technology that's called insulated metal panels, which is perhaps one of the cheapest and easiest ways to build an exterior wall. What it is, is it's just like a thin layer of steel. Then on top of that is a layer of insulation. Then on top of that is another layer of steel. Then at the end, the steel is extruded in such a way that it can like these inner panels can like lock together as they go. It's basically the simplest possible method of constructing a wall that you can imagine. But that has the structural system and the water barrier, air barrier, and insulation all in this one really simple assembly. Then when you put it together on site, it just locks together. Of course there are a lot of limitations to this. Like if you want to do anything on top of like add windows, all of a sudden it starts to look quite a bit less good. I think things that are really easy for a machine to do can be put together without a lot of persistent measurement or stuff like that in-field. They can just kind of snap together and actually want to fit together. I think that's kind of what it looks like. 3D Printer Pessimism & The Rising Cost of LabourDwarkesh Patel What would the houses or the buildings that are built using this physically look like? Maybe in 50 to 100 years, we'll look back on the houses we have today and say, “Oh, look at that artisanal creation made by humans.” What is a machine that is like designed for robots first or for automation first? In more interesting ways, would it differ from today's buildings? Brian Potter That's a good question. I'm not especially bullish on 3D building printing in general, but this is another example of a building using an extrusion process that is relatively easy to mechanize. What's interesting there is that when you start doing that, a lot of these other bottlenecks become unlocked a little bit. It's very difficult to build a building using a lot of curved exterior surfaces using conventional methods. You can do it, it's quite expensive to do, but there's a relatively straightforward way for a 3D-printed building to do that. They can build that as easily as if it was a straight wall. So you see a lot of interesting curved architecture on these creations and in a few other areas. There's a company that can build this cool undulating facade that people kind of like. So yeah, it unlocks a lot of options. Machines are more constrained in some things that they can do, but they don't have a lot of the other constraints that you would otherwise see. So I think you'll kind of see a larger variety of aesthetic things like that. That said, at the end of the day, I think a lot of the ways a house goes together is pretty well shaped to just the way that a person living inside it would like to use. I think Stewart Brand makes this point in––Dwarkesh Patel Oh, How Buildings Learn. Brian Potter There we go. He basically makes the point that a lot of people try to use dome-shaped houses or octagon-shaped houses, which are good because, again, going back to surface area volume, they include lots of space using the least amount of material possible. So in some theoretical sense, they're quite efficient, but it's actually quite inconvenient to live inside of a building with a really curved wall, right? Furniture doesn't fit up against it nicely, and pictures are hard to hang on a really curved wall. So I think you would see less variation than maybe you might expect. Dwarkesh Patel Interesting. So why are you pessimistic about 3D printers? For construction, I mean. Brian Potter Yeah, for construction. Oh God, so many reasons. Not pessimistic, but just there's a lot of other interesting questions. I mean, so the big obvious one is like right now a 3D printer can basically print the walls of a building. That is a pretty small amount of the value in a building, right? It's maybe 7% or 8%, something like that. Probably not more than 10% of the value in a building. Because you're not printing the foundation, you're not printing like the overhead vertical, or the overhead spanning structure of the building. You're basically just printing the walls. You're not even really printing the second story walls that you have in multiple stories. I don't think they've quite figured that out yet. So it's a pretty small amount of value added to the building. It's frankly a task that is relatively easy to do by manual labor. It's really pretty easy for a crew to basically put up the structure of a house. This is kind of a recurring theme in mechanization or it goes back to what I was talking about to our previous lead. Where it takes a lot of mechanization and a lot of expensive equipment to replace what basically like two or three guys can do in a day or something like that. The economics of it are pretty brutal. So right now it produces a pretty small value. I think that the value of 3D printing is basically entirely predicated on how successful they are at figuring out how to like deliver more components of the building using their system. There are companies that are trying to do this. There's one that got funded not too long ago called Black Diamond, where they have this crazy system that is like a series of 3D printers that would act simultaneously, like each one building a separate house. Then as you progress, you switch out the print head for like a robot arm. Cause a 3D printer is basically like a robot arm with just a particular manipulator at the end, right?So they switch out their print head for like a robot arm, and the robot arm goes and installs different other systems like the windows or the mechanical systems. So you can figure out how to do that reliably where your print head or your printing system is installing a large fraction of the value of the building. It's not clear to me that it's gonna be economic, but it obviously needs to reach that point. It's not obvious to me that they have gotten there yet. It's really quite hard to get a robot to do a lot of these tasks. For a lot of these players, it seems like they're actually moving away from that. I think in ICON is the biggest construction 3D printer company in the US, as far as I know. And as far as I know, they've moved away from trying to install lots of systems in their walls as they get printed. They've kind of moved on to having that installed separately, which I think has made their job a little bit easier, but again, not quite, it's hard to see how the 3D printer can fulfill its promises if it can't do anything just beyond the vertical elements, whichare really, for most construction, quite cheap and simple to build. Dwarkesh Patel Now, if you take a step back and talk how expensive construction is overall, how much of it can just be explained by the Baumol cost effect? As in labor costs are increasing because labor is more productive than other industries and therefore construction is getting more expensive. Brian Potter I think that's a huge, huge chunk of it. The labor fraction hasn't changed appreciably enough. I haven't actually verified that and I need to, but I remember somebody that said that they used to be much different. You sent me some literature related to it. So let's add a slight asterisk on that. But in general the labor cost has remained a huge fraction of the overall cost of the building. Reliably seeing their costs continue to rise, I think there's no reason to believe that that's not a big part of it. Dwarkesh Patel Now, I know this sounds like a question with an obvious answer, but in your post comparing the prices of construction in different countries, you mentioned how the cost of labor and the cost of materials is not as big a determiner of how expensive it is to construct in different places. But what does matter? Is it the amount of government involvement and administrative overhead? I'm curious why those things (government involvement and administrative overhead) have such a high consequence on the cost of construction. Brian Potter Yeah, that's a good question. I don't actually know if I have a unified theory for that. I mean, basically with any heavily regulated thing, any particular task that you're doing takes longer and is less reliable than it would be if it was not done right. You can't just do it as fast as on your own schedule, right? You end up being bottlenecked by government processes and it reduces and narrows your options. So yeah, in general, I would expect that to kind of be the case, but I actually don't know if I have a unified theory of how that works beyond just, it's a bunch of additional steps at any given part of the process, each of which adds cost. Dwarkesh Patel Yeah. Now, one interesting trend we have in the United States with construction is that a lot of it is done by Latino workers and especially by undocumented Latino workers. What is the effect of this on the price and the quality of construction? If you have a bunch of hardworking undocumented workers who are working for below-market rates in the US, will this dampen the cost of construction over time? What do you think is going to happen? Brian Potter I suspect that's probably one of the reasons why the US has comparatively low construction costs compared to other parts of the world. Well, I'll caveat that. Residential construction, which is single-family homes and multi-family apartment buildings all built in the US and have light framed wood and are put together, like you said, by a lot of like immigrant workers. Because of that, it would not surprise me if those wages are a lot lower than the equivalent wage for like a carpenter in Germany or something like that. I suspect that's a factor in why our cost of residential construction are quite low. AI's Impact on Construction ProductivityDwarkesh Patel Overall, it seems from your blog post that you're kind of pessimistic, or you don't think that different improvements in industrialization have transferred over to construction yet. But what do you think is a prospect of future advances in AI having a big impact on construction? With computer vision and with advances in robotics, do you think we'll finally see some carry-over into construction productivity or is it gonna be more of the same? Brian Potter Yeah, I think there's definitely gonna be progress on that axis. If you can wire up your computer vision systems, robotic systems, and your AI in such a way that your capabilities for a robot system are more expanded, then I kind of foresee robotics being able to take a larger and larger fraction of the tasks done on a typical construction site. I kind of see it being kind of done in narrow avenues that gradually expand outward. You're starting to see a lot of companies that have some robotic system that can do one particular task, but do that task quite well. There's a couple of different robot companies that have these little robots for like drawing wall layouts on like concrete slabs or whatever. So you know exactly where to build your walls, which you would think would not be like a difficult problem in construction, but it turns out that a lot of times people put the walls in the wrong spot and then you have to go back and move them later or just basically deal with it. So yeah, it's basically a little Roomba type device that just draws the wall layout to the concrete slab and all the other systems as well–– for example, where the lines need to run through the slab and things like that. I suspect that you're just gonna start to see robotics and systems like that take a larger and larger share of the tasks on the construction site over time. Dwarkesh Patel Yeah, it's still very far away. It's still very far away. What do you think of Flow? That's Adam Neumann's newest startup and backed with $350 million from Andreeseen Horowitz.Brian Potter I do not have any strong opinions about that other than, “Wow, they've really given him another 350M”. I do not have any particularly strong opinions about this. They made a lot they make a lot of investments that don't make sense to me, but I'm out of venture capital. So there's no reason that my judgment would be any good in this situation–– so I'm just presuming they know something I do not. Dwarkesh Patel I'm going to be interviewing Andreeseen later this month, and I'm hoping I can ask him about that.Brian Potter You know, it may be as simple as he “sees all” about really high variance bets. There's nobody higher variance in the engine than Adam Neumann so, maybe just on those terms, it makes sense. Dwarkesh Patel You had an interesting post about like how a bunch of a lot of the knowledge in the construction industry is informal and contained within best practices or between relationships and expectations that are not articulated all the time. It seems to me that this is also true of software in many cases but software seems much more legible and open source than these other physical disciplines like construction despite having a lot of th
"But, they're so nice," "She's my niece." He goes to our church, so he must be honest." We hear this stuff all the time about financial advisors. Of course they're nice. Most of them are salespeople. To sell products, you generally need to be nice. Should niceness be one of your top criteria for hiring someone to manage your future? Tom and Don discuss how you should be picking an investment advisor. Plus, a listener wonders which is best, Vanguard, Dimensional, or Avantis? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In this episode Daniel D'Neuville defines law of attraction even further, introduces 5th dimensional thinking as a birth place of manifestations, gaining momentum, and aligning our vibration to manifest our desires.Part One:Mindfulness Meditation: http://yesdaniel.comGet The Manifesting Study Guide Here: Daniel's Courses THE WISDOM VAULT: Manifestation Mastery CourseLINKSTHE ALIGNED SELF COACHING PROGRAM: http://yesdaniel.comTHE COURSE: REFINING YOUR MAP OF REALITY to uncover and reconnect to lost, deleted, distorted, and generalized information is available in Daniel's membership program; THE VAULT OF INNER WISDOMFREE VIDEO TRAINING: 5 Mindset Shifts to Up Grade Your Money GameCheckout Daniel's new membership program THE VAULTDANIEL D'NEUVILLE's WEBSITE: http://dneuville.comDaniel's YouTube CHANNELFACEBOOK GROUPSPODCAST LISTENER'S FB COMMUNITYEXTREME GRATITUDE PROJECTBass Slap Intro written and performed by bass player & producer: Miki SantamariaMiki's YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Is our economy "strong as hell" as stated by the Commander in Chief?... And what do baseball and investing have to do with each other?... With continuing discussion of whether or not the U.S is in a recession, who do we go to for the answer? In today's episode, Brad introduces us to the umpire of economics and discusses the recession debate, reminding us to continue looking forward. Listen now! Show Highlights Include: Hall of Famer, Bill Clem (2:22) The Umpire of Economics (4:39) Who Has Investment Fatigue? (10:23) "The Economy is Strong as Hell" - Biden (14:10) Data is 3 Dimensional (18:27) The Market Looks Forward. (21:35) Sources: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/09/13/business/economy/us-economy.html https://www.axios.com/2022/07/14/ice-cream-prices-inflation-sunday-deals To schedule your complimentary retirement track review, head to https://onecapital.com. You can also call us at 805-410-5454 or text the word ‘TRACK' and we'll reach out to you. Want to WATCH the show? SUBSCRIBE to our YouTube Channel here: The Make Your Money Matter YouTube Show
In this episode, Andre is with a special guest, Cher Gardiner, to talk to us about religion, vibration, ascension, and how to be happy and stay happy despite what's happening in the world today. Cher shares insights about the current state of the youth, which is one in 10 high school students have attempted suicide. She then gives her learned opinion on the bigger conversation about what we can do, how can we get out of that state, and raise our vibration to be able to step into love and help the world with the same. Make sure to listen to this episode and open your mind to the wisdom that will shed light on a lot of key principles that will bring you freedom, joy, and peace. Quotes: “I think it's unfortunate what's happening to our parents, the parents that are in charge of those children, because you are given those children, you are given the opportunity to be stewards over those children and guardians and guides over those children.” - Cher Gardiner “There's power and being conscious, activating a thought applying an emotion to it, and then doing an action because an action is essential in order for you to move forward.” - Cher Gardiner “Your emotion is either love or fear. And then, you choose the frequency or the feeling that supports it, and then you can ascend.” - Cher Gardiner “Consciousness is what creates matter in manifestation.” - Cher Gardiner Mentions: https://badasseryfactory.com/ Text BADASS to 55444 for SMS updates and contents Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/c/BadasseryFactory Bootcamp: https://badasseryfactory.com/bootcamp/ Group Coaching: https://badasseryfactory.com/group-coaching/ https://georgeonline.com/ Power Vs. Force, by Dr. David Hawkins Show Notes: (00:00) Podcast Intro (00:43) Greetings and updates (03:52) Introduction of Cher Gardiner (05:27) How is Cher inside with what's happening in the world (06:29) The concept of spirit (08:52) A death experience of losing our identity (12:43) The concept of self-loathing (16:03) Understanding the lower worlds' system and how to move into the higher planes (23:29) How to get to your heart center (29:13) The concept of religion (34:03) Ascension - the higher dimensional aspect of who you are (41:24) Where is heaven? (43:03) If it feels good, keep doing it (47:04) Why do people get stuck in negativity and drama? (49:42) What you can do to help get to a phenomenal 2023 for yourself (54:58) Understanding that we are creators (1:02:57) Updates and events announcements
WATCH THIS INTERVIEW: https://youtu.be/uQmI4XXAQdw She had an experience of Light. Dr. Fran Grace is the founding director of Inner Pathway, as well as Professor of Religious Studies at the University of Redlands. Fran's teacher and mentor was Dr. David R. Hawkins and she collaborated on several of his books including Power vs Force and Map of Consciousness. She is the author of, The Power of Love: A Transformed Heart Changes the World This is her story, and this is her Passion. If you liked this episode, please do subscribe to our channel and let us inspire you to live a life you love. ❤️ https://www.youtube.com/c/PassionHarvest/ Thank you for watching!
Senator Bill Bradley is a former professional basketball player, Olympic gold medalist, three-term US Senator, and author of seven books. He shares personal and professional stories on the driving factors and experiences that led him to success. Dimensional's Catherine Williams leads the discussion on the values Bradley has emphasized throughout his career and how financial advisors can implement those same values to help build a successful team and business.
WATCH THIS INTERVIEW: https://youtu.be/K6nzjYBjMh4 All of life comes to us with ease, joy and glory. Simone Milasas is a compulsive creator with a desire to empower people to know they can change any area of their life that they think is not working for them. Simone is the founder of Joy of Business, a program that mentors entrepreneurs globally to create greater wealth, success and happiness. Simone is also an Advanced Facilitator of Access Consciousness and a bestselling author. This is her story, and this is her Passion. If you liked this episode, please do subscribe to our channel and let us inspire you to live a life you love. ❤️ https://www.youtube.com/c/PassionHarvest/ Thank you for watching!
If you're looking for the real deal, this classic series is a compendium of classes with Eric. The recordings span over 20 years and were done in natural environments - not rehearsed or pre-recorded; they include occasional pets, background noises, and adult language, which gives an authentic feel to each episode!What is High Gaurd All About? In today's world, it's more important than ever to know how to protect your energy from negative influences. High Guard is an energy defense system that helps you to do just that. Using powerful psychic techniques, High Guard can help you to clear away negative emotions and thought patterns that don't belong to you. This will help you to feel lighter, happier, and more in control of your life. High Guard also protects you from wilful psychic attacks, the unconscious negative intentions of others, and entities. By creating tools made of golden light, High Guard keeps you safe from these harmful influences. If you're looking for a way to protect your energy and live a happier, more positive life, High Guard is the perfect system for you.Think you have what it takes to be your own Guru? Join Eric Pepin for Live Weekly classes on spiritual concepts and techniques taught within the Higher Balance curriculum. These are designed for people who want to dive into practice, not just theory!You can become a patron by donating as little as $1: https://www.patreon.com/EricPepin Get bonus content on PatreonSupport this show http://supporter.acast.com/rebelgururadio. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
i took a little week off but i’m back with a new episode of 5432fun radio. Is it still radio if it’s not on *the radio* ? whatever it is, i’ll keep doing it. probably weekly. cool? cool.DOWNLOAD/STREAM RECORDING00:00 (intro by omar)00:20 UV-TV “Happy” HAPPY02:56 Thom Lucero w/ Ben Varian, Miles Wintner, Shigeru Akakura, & Jonny Kosmo “Toyota Comfort” Tokyo Days04:51 Merival “Good Enough Again” Lesson07:18 Little Wings “Scratchers” People11:00 The Just Joans “Please Don’t Talk To Me” Buckfast Bottles In The Rain14:42 Scarves “Shelter” Dinner Dates for the End of Days17:38 Chris Weisman “License Rock” Valence With Tassels19:04 Depression Breakfast “Art Girl” Just Because I’m a Womxn20:33 The Paranoyds “Hungry Sam” Hungry Sam EP23:26 Littlest Sister “Dimensional” Slow Motion Collision26:53 YAAWN “Ax” Ax29:33 Cursing & Swearing “Double The Heartbreak” Cursing & Swearing32:47 Mope Grooves “Smashed Landscape” Desire35:00 DEAN CERCONE “Sinking Like Stones” Haunted House36:52 Slaughter Beach, Dog “Heart Attack” Safe And Also No Fear39:09 barnacle “urchin” demo41:05 Mauno “Vampire” Really Well43:49 Jean Marie “Don’t Fret!” Lean46:53 Noche Tras Noche “Dance ” Caer y caer50:16 All Hits “Dirt Snake” Introducing…52:15 Inland Island “Haven’t Got a Clue” Salbum54:17 Diamondtown “Forever” The Voice EP56:52 River Gods “Stressed Out” Let Me Live58:20 Mikey Erg “Hopland Superette” Waxbuilt Castles61:07 Beeef “Horse” Bull in the Shade64:33 FET.NAT “Tapis” Le Mal68:11 The Birthmarks “Fan Fiction” No Slash EP71:06 PERSE “Catâ€™s Cradle” prequel72:25 Movies “Both Fell” Rolling Fog on the Highway74:52 Teenage Bigfoot “The Company Dime” Do It or Don’t77:15 The Stroppies “Switched On” ENTROPY, And Other FIRST HAND FAVOURITES79:23 Pet Fox “Swerving” Rare Occasion80:47 Luray “Mountain” Dig A Pit
Carrying the DNA of at least 22 different star races, humans are considered royalty due to our innate gifts of intuition & imagination that can transform the frequency of any DNA consciousness. Despite attempts to suppress our natural creative freewill, these star races are increasingly helping us to awaken & activate sleeping strands of DNA so together we can walk this Earth as 5th dimensional beings of unity, compassion & peace.
Is TIME an Illusion? 4th DIMENSIONAL TRAP! ⏳ | Cub Kuker Supernatural Podcast (Episode 63) Have you ever wondered what time really is? Is time the fourth dimension, a construct of our own imagination, or a construct of an entity that wishes to bind us to this reality by stamping an expiration date on us collectively? Whatever you believe time to be there are methods of transcending it that we will talk about on today's episode.
Matt Smith is a serial entrepreneur and media specialist. He's on the founding team of Light Pong, building the world's first 1-Dimensional game console. He hosts The Intersection Podcast and he's a member of the Exit the Premises artist collective.
WATCH THIS INTERVIEW: https://youtu.be/gl0ophZmtk8 What happened to you before you were born? Elizabeth Carman, and her husband, Neil Carman, PhD, have co-authored three books on this topic of prebirth experiences. Research is based upon interviews with people who have "natural" lifelong memories of birth, womb-time, conception, and going back to before conception—before identifying with a physical body. Taken together, this information reassures us that there was something before this life and then there must be something after this life, too. This is their story, and this is their Passion. If you liked this episode, please do subscribe to our channel and let us inspire you to live a life you love. ❤️ https://www.youtube.com/c/PassionHarvest/ Thank you for watching!
Donate to the OVERCOMING THE DARKNESS fundraiser at https://weirddarkness.com/hope. Find Weird Darkness wherever you listen to podcasts: https://linktr.ee/weirddarkness. #paranormal #truestories #paranormalstories #ghoststories #horrorstories #truecrime #cryptidsJoin the weekly LISTEN & CHAT on Tuesdays 8pm ET / 11pm PT at https://KCORRadio.com! IN THIS EPISODE: Do parallel dimensions really exist? And if they do, is it possible to travel to them? Two people have stories that might have you believing you can – one of them having “Lunch In a Different Dimension”. *** A very strange phenomenon that has been reported by vast swaths of the population is known as “The Mandela Effect” which entails a mass misremembering of events, facts, or details. These can involve everything from pop culture to historical events, and often leave those who are faced with a reality much different than they remember in shock or bewilderment. Indeed, the history that you know, read about, and are sure is set in stone may not be so at all, and there seem to be alternate mysterious timelines of history that exist side by side with our memories and the reality we think we know.SOURCES AND ESSENTIAL WEB LINKS…“Lunch in a Different Dimension” by Jason Offutt for Mysterious Universe: http://bit.ly/2RXe3XF; http://bit.ly/2FSGH7r “The Mandela Effect” by Brent Swancer for Mysterious Universe: http://bit.ly/2Y3ZxCX, http://bit.ly/2XIOqQp = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =Weird Darkness theme by Alibi Music Library. Background music provided by Alibi Music Library, EpidemicSound and/or StoryBlocks with paid license. Music from Shadows Symphony (https://tinyurl.com/yyrv987t), Midnight Syndicate (http://amzn.to/2BYCoXZ), Kevin MacLeod (https://tinyurl.com/y2v7fgbu), Tony Longworth (https://tinyurl.com/y2nhnbt7), and Nicolas Gasparini (https://tinyurl.com/lnqpfs8) is used with permission of the artists.= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =(Over time links seen above may become invalid, disappear, or have different content. I always make sure to give authors credit for the material I use whenever possible. If I somehow overlooked doing so for a story, or if a credit is incorrect, please let me know and I will rectify it in these show notes immediately. Some links included above may benefit me financially through qualifying purchases.)= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = ="I have come into the world as a light, so that no one who believes in me should stay in darkness." — John 12:46Trademark, Weird Darkness®, 2022. Copyright Weird Darkness©, 2022.
WATCH THIS EPISODE: https://youtu.be/WGMreRiFsKc Ever ask yourself the questions.... Why are we here? What is the purpose? What is it all about? None of what we are experiencing is a mistake. There is a deep cellular memory within us that remembers how this world works and how to navigate through it. We come here to experience growth with a pre-designed plan. We are the ones that designed it – not just by ourselves but it was a collaboration with our guides, angels, teachers, and the universe. In this episode of Luisa TV, I share with you a glimpse. "One of the hardest things we have to do on this human journey is to come back home to us." I have recognised that we come here to experience growth with a pre-designed plan. We are the ones that designed it – not just by ourselves but it was a collaboration with our guides, angels, teachers, and the universe. We experience cyclic lessons over and over again – in whatever form this presents itself to us - until we accomplish this growth. Imagine if we took this knowledge! Love is the universal power. You might not be able to touch it with your hands or wrap it up in paper or keep it locked in a cupboard, but you can feel it because it is the essence of you. We are made from love and love is where we will always return. Always The more you remember the more free you become. With Much Love, Luisa x If you liked this episode, please do subscribe to our channel and let us inspire you to live a life you love. ❤️ https://www.youtube.com/c/PassionHarvest/ Thank you for watching!
Our guest this week is Dave Nadig. Dave is Financial Futurist at VettaFi, a data and research firm that focuses on the ETF industry as well as nascent technologies like digital assets. Dave boasts decades of experience analyzing and writing about the investment management business both at VettaFi and before that at ETF.com. Dave is a sought-after speaker and frequently quoted in the media on matters pertaining to the ETF industry, market structure, and many other topics. He is also the author of a book on ETFs called A Comprehensive Guide To Exchange-Traded Funds. Dave received his bachelor's degree in Creative Writing from the University of Massachusetts Amherst and his MBA from Boston University.BackgroundBio@DaveNadigVettaFiA Comprehensive Guide to Exchange-Traded Funds, by Dave NadigFuturism and Innovation“Financial Futurist,” by Dave Nadig, etftrends.com.“Tokenize Absolutely Everything,” by Dave Nadig, etfdb.com, Nov. 19, 2021.Indexing “ETF Prime: Dave Nadig on the Ethics of Indexing,” by Dave Nadig, nasdaq.com, May 17, 2022.“Dimensional's Conversion of Mutual Funds Into ETFs Pays Off,” by Beagan Wilcox Volz, ft.com, July 14, 2022.“Bloomberg: Dave Nadig on Single-Stock ETF Risks,” by Aaron Neuwirth, etfdb.com, Aug. 19, 2022.“ETF Edge: Dave Nadig Talks Direct Indexing,” by Aaron Neuwirth, etftrends.com, Sept. 13, 2021.“Commentary: Direct Indexing: A Point Solution for Global Crises,” by Dave Nadig, jii.pm-research.com, May 19, 2022.“Direct Indexing Is Like Customizing a Tesla, but With Your Portfolio, Investor Says,” by Lizzy Gurdus, cnbc.com, Sept. 16, 2021.“Are You in the Retirement ‘risk zone'? These Investments Might Be Able to Protect You,” by Robert Powell, MarketWatch, July 15, 2022.Governance and Regulation“Proposed Legislation Promises to Empower Investors. What to Know,” by Lauren Foster, barrons.com, June 14, 2022.“The INDEX Act: The Next ESG Battle Is for Your Vote,” by Dave Nadig, etftrends.com, Aug. 5, 2022.“VettaFi's Mid-Year Research Update: Big Picture,” by Dave Nadig, etfdb.com, July 15, 2022.“The Inelastic Market Hypothesis: A Microstructural Interpretation,” by Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, arvix.org, January 2022.“Yahoo Finance: Dave Nadig Discusses Investing Amidst Rising Rates, Crypto, and ESG,” by Karrie Gordon, etftrends.com, April 14, 2022.“The Tricky Politics of Anti-ESG Investing,” by Liam Denning, washingtonpost.com, May 19, 2022.Asset Allocation“ETF Edge: Dave Nadig on Changes to the 60-40 Portfolio,” Nasdaq.com, April 19, 2021.“Don't Kill the 60/40 Portfolio: Vanguard Consultant,” by Bernice Napach, thinkadvisor.com, Aug. 3, 2021.“TD Ameritrade: Dave Nadig on ESG and Bond Trends,” by Aaron Neuwirth, etftrends.com, May 3, 2021.“Yahoo Finance: Dave Nadig on Alternative Allocations,” by Aaron Neuwirth, yahoo.com, May 25, 2022.Advice Market “Yahoo Finance: Dave Nadig Putting Crypto in Focus,” by Aaron Neuwirth, etftrends.com, May 19, 2021.“Announcing the New Kitces AdvisorTech Directory and the State of the (Nerd's Eye View) Blog,” by Michael Kitces, kitces.com, Jan. 31, 2022.KnudgeCrypto and ETFs“Nadig Appears on ETF Edge to Talk Emerging Markets, Value Investing, Crypto, and More,” by Evan Harp, etftrends.com, Aug. 29, 2022.“Bitcoin Futures ETF: Lucy & the Football?” by Dave Nadig, etftrends.com, Aug. 31, 2021.“How to Talk to your Client About NFTs,” by Dave Nadig, etftrends.com, March 30, 2021.“The Problem With a Bitcoin Futures ETF,” by Dave Nadig, etftrends.com, Oct. 12, 2021.
PennLive's Dustin Hockensmith takes a final look back at Penn State's defense in a 17-7 win over Northwestern. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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Still stuck in a different universe, in order to get back home Professor Atwood must first deal with various personnel issues involving a relationship "on a break", an oceanic chef rivalry, and a wayward apprentice scientist who seems to be doing more harm than good.
WATCH THIS INTERVIEW: https://youtu.be/8jREYAztgx0 Her search for evidence of the afterlife uncovered something amazing! Mary Beth's husband, Paul passed into the Spirit world from pancreatic cancer. She was consumed with learning about what happens when we die and about romance in the afterlife. Mary Beth has deepened her loving connection with her husband in the afterlife , she calls these unions, Transdimentional Relationships. Mary Beth wants the Transdimentional Relationship to be regarded as a viable relationship choice when one partner in a romantic couple precedes the other in death. She demonstrates that couples in Transdimentional Relationships can live happily and in love until they are fully reunited on the Other Side. This is her story, and this is her Passion. If you liked this episode, please do subscribe to our channel and let us inspire you to live a life you love. ❤️ https://www.youtube.com/c/PassionHarvest/ Thank you for watching!
If you're looking for the real deal, this classic series is a compendium of classes with Eric. The recordings span over 20 years and were done in natural environments - not rehearsed or pre-recorded; they include occasional pets, background noises, and adult language, which gives an authentic feel to each episode!What is Unveiled All About? Introducing Unveiled, an episode by the Rebel Guru and author Eric Pepin. In Unveiled, Eric exposes the dangers of getting trapped in an artificial reality created by our technology. He shows how we are moving away from true spirituality and towards a cheap imitation that will not provide us with immortality or happiness. With clarity and insight, Eric explains how we can avoid getting caught in this false reality and move towards our true spiritual potential.Eric takes us on a journey into the higher dimensions of consciousness, where we can glimpse the true nature of reality. This is an episode that will change the way you see the world forever. If you're searching for a deeper understanding of reality, then this is the episode for you. Come on a journey with Eric as he unveils the truth about our world and shows us how to find lasting happiness and spiritual fulfillment.Think you have what it takes to be your own Guru? Join Eric Pepin for Live Weekly classes on spiritual concepts and techniques taught within the Higher Balance curriculum. These are designed for people who want to dive into practice, not just theory!You can become a patron by donating as little as $1: https://www.patreon.com/EricPepin Get bonus content on PatreonSupport this show http://supporter.acast.com/rebelgururadio. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mississippi State knows that Texas A&M has not had much firepower on offense this season. Can the Bulldogs shut down Devon Achane, one of the conference's most explosive players, and put the game into the hands of the Aggie passing attack? Brian Hadad and Robbie Faulk discuss their ideas of what Zach Arnett must do to give the Bulldogs a chance at victory.
In business, it's really easy to become a pretty one dimensional person - at least to the people around you. It's so easy to focus exclusively on business and business conversations and leave everything about who you are outside of business out of your conversations. It may seem natural, but what are you missing out on? In today's episode of The Referral Bench podcast, Phil and Ian talk about the value of letting people see the other sides of you that may not be related to your business. Give it a listen and let us know your thoughts on our social channels! Get Social! Check out our Facebook page Check out our LinkedIn page Contact Phil & Firestorm Phil's LinkedIn Firestorm Website Contact Ian & Mission Suite Ian's LinkedIn Mission Suite Website
* Making the Impossible-possible in your life!* Moving through the 3 Dimensions: The Mundane, The Magical & The Miracle space* The Difference between Predictability, Magic &Miracles& How can you get out of the Mundane into Magical Experiences or Miracle Life!***What An EPIC Conversation!My keep buzzing during & after this! If you buzzing in the same way & this conversation lit your heart up then let's chat More about Dare2Dream: bit.ly/dare2dream22****Thank you for your time and for listening to my podcast!Connect with me on IG: https://www.instagram.com/empowered.muse/My Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/maiivucoachJoin my Empowered Muse Tribe: https://www.facebook.com/groups/empoweredmusetribe/
Mike Matthews discusses what interesting horse lives in the Mount Shasta area and the return of the Mike Matthews New Tunes Feud. Join Mike as he podcasts live from Cafe Anyway with Chely Shoehart, Floyd the Floorman, and John Deer the Engineer. Next show it's Benita, the Disgruntled Fiddle Player, and the Brewmaster.
WATCH THIS INTERVIEW: https://youtu.be/7saT31KqlL8 For over three decades Dr. Dean Radin has been engaged in research on the frontiers of consciousness. Dr. Radin is Chief Scientist at the Institute of Noetic Science (IONS) and Associated Distinguished Professor of Integral and Transpersonal Psychology at the California Institute of Integral Studies. He is also Co-Founder and Chairman of the Board of Cognigenics. Dr. Radin is author or co-author of hundreds of scientific, technical, and popular articles and he has four best-selling books; The Conscious Universe, Entangled Minds, Supernormal and Real Magic. In 2017 he was named one of the 100 most inspiring people in the world. This is his story, and this is his Passion. If you liked this episode, please do subscribe to our channel and let us inspire you to live a life you love. ❤️ https://www.youtube.com/c/PassionHarvest/ Thank you for watching!
WATCH THIS EPISODE: https://youtu.be/fp3aTGDOvZw Every single one of us has the ability to access a source of higher wisdom within us. I've discovered that intuition knows way more than I do, and I've learned to listen. In this episode of Luisa TV, I share a little glimpse into my life. "I sat down and closed my eyes, something happened…" Allow you to the full multidimensional self that you are. Be open to all possibilities, ask yourself questions you don't know the answers to... Listen to your intuition first and always believe in Magic! With Much Love, Luisa x If you liked this episode, please do subscribe to our channel and let us inspire you to live a life you love. ❤️ https://www.youtube.com/c/PassionHarvest/ Thank you for watching!
Case #187: Love Has Won; 5th Dimensional Cult Classification: [Real Life Lore] In 2021, the matriarch and leader of the “Love Has Won” cult was discovered dead, missing her eyes, mummified, and wrapped in Christmas lights. Today, on ovpod, listen in to hear the entire story. How did the cult leader end up dead? How do you prepare Earth for entering the 5th dimension? And Where the Fuck are her eyes? -Sponsored by- Our Patrons at http://www.patreon.com/ovpod https://www.ovpod.ca/
Chip Roame, founder and managing partner of Tiburon Strategic Advisors, joins Dimensional's Catherine Williams to discuss the shift in wealth from Baby Boomers to Gen X and Millennials. They will cover steps advisory practices can take today to meet the needs of younger investors and win them as long-term clients.
This latest series is a compendium of conversations with Eric, recordings that span over a 20-year period. Before the days of smartphones, friends and students maintained a tradition of recording Eric when he would start teaching. Notice: The material was done in a natural environment, passionately, unrehearsed, and unscripted. Audio recordings may include occasional pets, people talking, and adult language. If you are seeking the real deal, you've found it.What is Mastering the Mechanism All About?Mastering the Mechanism is a groundbreaking program that teaches you how to build an energy body that can slip past the restrictions of this reality and explore the next. In this program, Eric shares his knowledge of the mechanics of the universe and shows you how to use this information to build a body that is not bound by the limitations of our physical world. With Mastering the Mechanism, you will be able to move to other dimensions, access hidden knowledge, and gain a greater understanding of the universe. This program is truly life-changing and will enable you to experience things that you never thought possible.Like this episode? If you're interested in attending live classes and refining your knowledge and techniques along with other like-minded people - Eric Pepin's Patreon has Live Weekly classes with the Rebel Guru himself. These classes are centered on spiritual concepts and techniques taught within the Higher Balance curriculum. It is designed to bring perspective and clarity to the earnest spiritual seeker and to dive into the practice and application of these same techniques.Become a Patron here for as little as $1! - https://www.patreon.com/EricPepin Get bonus content on PatreonSupport this show http://supporter.acast.com/rebelgururadio. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Here we go with Bigfoot again. This time more about the dimensional being or psychic? We stream every sunday at 715 pm pacific only at SchrabHomeVideo.com at patreon we have different tiers of content with up to 2 bonus episodes a week Patreon.com/reallifescifi we stream 2 more times a week (tuesday afternoons and thursday nights) at Twitch.tv/reallifescifi grab some merch at teepublic.com/t-shirts/real_life_sci_fi
Stanford Steve and The Bear look at a loaded Week 1 slate. The guys discuss how Bear's getting from Pittsburgh to Columbus, wagering on the U.S. Open, the unknown factors blanketing the biggest matchups, the drastic difference between the floor and ceiling for West Virginia, laying the points on Fresno State no matter what, if Coastal Carolina can handle Army's offense, which ranked team is most likely to lose to an unranked team, why Georgia Tech keeps getting primetime games, Alabama's secondary, how down they are on Nebraska and more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices