Podcasts about successful investing

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 35: Mad Money.LEARNING: Investors are naive, and Cramer is an entertainer, not a financial advisor who adds value. “Do not confuse information with value-added information. If you know something because it was in the newspaper, everyone else knows it as well. So it has no value.”Larry Swedroe In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry's Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 35: Mad Money.Chapter 35: Mad MoneyIn this chapter, Larry explains why investment advice from so-called market experts is often worthless.The infamous Jim CramerJim Cramer, a former hedge fund manager, has become one of the most recognizable faces in the investment world. He dispenses rapid-fire investment advice on the show “Mad Money.” Since it premiered in March 2005, it has been one of CNBC's most-watched shows. But has his advice been as successful for the investors who follow it? Larry shares a couple of research studies that answer this question.It pays more to invest in an S&P than in Cramer's fundCramer manages a portfolio that invests in many of the stock recommendations he makes on TV. Established in August 2001 with approximately $3 million, the Action Alerts PLUS (AAP) portfolio has been the centerpiece of Cramer's media company, TheStreet, which sells his financial advice, giving subscribers in the millions access to each trade the portfolio makes ahead of time. Jonathan Hartley and Matthew Olson, authors of the 2018 study “Jim Cramer's Mad Money Charitable Trust Performance and Factor Attribution,” examined the AAP portfolio's historical performance. Their study covered the period from August 1, 2001, the AAP portfolio's inception, through December 31, 2017. The study found that the fund returned a total of 97%. During that same period, an investment in the S&P would have returned 204%.No real stock-picking skill, just entertainmentIn another study, “How Mad Is Mad Money?”, Paul Bolster, Emery Trahan, and Anand Venkateswaran examined Cramer's buy and sell recommendations for the period from July 28, 2005, through December 31, 2008. They also constructed a portfolio of his recommendations and compared it to a market index. The researchers came to three key conclusions:Investors were paying attention, as the stocks he recommended had abnormal returns of almost 2% on the day following his recommendations.The returns...

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 34: Bear Markets: A Necessary Evil.LEARNING: Investors must view bear markets as necessary evils. “If stocks didn't experience the kind of bear markets that we have, investors would be very unhappy.”Larry Swedroe In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry's Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 34: Bear Markets: A Necessary Evil.Chapter 34: Bear Markets: A Necessary EvilIn this chapter, Larry explains why investors must view bear markets as necessary evils. He says that if stocks didn't experience the kind of bear markets that we have, investors would be very unhappy.Larry further explains that the most basic finance principle is the relationship between risk and expected, but not guaranteed, return. So, the higher the risk, the higher the expected return, which means that if the risk is high, investors will apply a bigger risk premium, which will lead to the denominator in the formula of the Net Present Value. The numerator is the expected earnings. The denominator is the risk-free rate plus the risk premium.The higher the risk, the higher the premiumsLarry highlights historical bear markets, noting the U.S. has experienced losses exceeding 34% during the COVID crisis and 51% from 2007 to 2009. He argues that these losses are essential for investors to demand higher risk premiums. The very fact that investors have experienced such significant losses leads them to price stocks with a large risk premium.From 1926 through 2022, the S&P provided an annual risk premium over one-month Treasury bills of 8.2% and an annualized premium of 6.9%. If the losses that investors experienced had been smaller, the risk premium would also have been smaller. And the smaller the losses experienced, the smaller the premium would have been.In other words, the less risk investors perceive, the higher the price they are willing to pay for stocks. And the higher the market's price-to-earnings ratio, the lower the future returns.Staying the course during underperformanceThe bottom line, Larry says, is that bear markets are necessary for the creation of the large equity risk premium we have experienced. Thus, if investors want stocks to provide high expected returns, bear markets (while painful to endure) should be considered a necessary evil.However, Larry notes that it is during the periods of underperformance that investor discipline is tested. Unfortunately, the evidence suggests that most investors significantly underperform the stock market and the mutual funds they invest in. The underperformance is because investors act like generals fighting the last war.Subject to

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 33: An Investor's Worst Enemy.LEARNING: You are your own worst enemy when it comes to investing. “The right strategy is to avoid the loser's game. Don't try to pick individual stocks or time the market, just invest in a disciplined way, and you will win by getting the market's return.”Larry Swedroe In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry's Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 33: An Investor's Worst Enemy.Chapter 33: An Investor's Worst EnemyIn this chapter, Larry demonstrates why investors are their own worst enemies. He observes that many people think the key to investing is identifying the stocks that will outperform the market and avoiding the ones that will underperform.Yet the vast body of evidence says that's playing the losers' game. He adds that most professionals with advanced degrees in finance and mathematics, with access to the best databases and huge advantages over individuals, often think they're smart enough to beat the market.They do so by attempting to uncover individual securities they believe the rest of the market has somehow mispriced (the price is too high or too low). They also try to time their investment decisions to buy when the market is “undervalued” and sell when it is “overvalued.”However, evidence shows that 98% of them fail to outperform in any statistically significant way on a risk-adjusted basis, even before taxes. As historian and author Peter Bernstein puts it: “The essence of investment theory is that being smart is not a sufficient condition for being rich.”Why do people keep playing the loser's game?In the face of such overwhelming evidence, the puzzling question is why people keep trying to play a game they are likely to lose. From Larry's perspective, there are four explanations:Because our education system has failed investors and Wall Street, and most financial media want to conceal the evidence, people are unaware of it.While the evidence suggests that playing the game of active management is the triumph of hope over wisdom and experience, hope does spring eternal—after all, a small minority succeed.Active management is exciting, while passive management is boring.Investors are overconfident—a normal human condition, not limited to investing. While each investor might admit that it's hard to beat the market, each believes he will be one of the few who succeed.So, what is the right strategy?In light of the evidence presented, Larry's advice is clear: avoid the losers' game. Instead of trying to pick individual stocks or time the market, he advocates...

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 32: The Twenty-Dollar Bill.LEARNING: Trade as if the markets are efficient, even though they are not. “If the markets were perfectly efficient, then no one would discover anything about a mispriced stock. There would be no abnormal behaviors or biases, such as investors preferring to buy lottery stocks; therefore, there would be no incentive for investors to conduct any research. This would make the market inefficient.”Larry Swedroe In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry's Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 32: The Twenty-Dollar Bill.Chapter 32: The Uncertainty of InvestingIn this chapter, Larry explains the efficient markets hypothesis (EMH) and why successful trading strategies often self-destruct due to their inherent limitations.According to Larry, one of the fundamental tenets of the EMH is that in a competitive financial environment, successful trading strategies self-destruct because they are self-limiting—when they are discovered, they are eliminated by exploiting the strategy.He shares the example of Andrew Lo's adaptive markets hypothesis, which acknowledges that while the EMH may not necessarily hold in the short term, it does predict that inefficiencies will self-correct over time as arbitrageurs exploit them after publication. This understanding leads us to the inevitable conclusion that financial markets trend toward efficiency in the long run.Efficient markets rapidly eliminate opportunities for abnormal profitsTo demonstrate how the efficiency of markets rapidly eliminates opportunities for abnormal profits, Larry shares the following example:Imagine that an investor discovers that small-cap stocks have historically outperformed the market in January. To take advantage of this anomaly, that investor would have to buy small-cap stocks at the end of December, before the period of outperformance. After achieving some success with this strategy, other investors would take note—with the large dollars at stake, Wall Street is quick to copy successful strategies. An academic paper might even be published. Since the effect is now known to more than just the original discoverer of the anomaly, one would have to buy before others do to generate abnormal profits. Now, prices start to rise in November. But the next group of investors, recognizing this was going to happen, would have to buy even earlier.As you can see, the very act of exploiting an anomaly has the effect of making it disappear, making the market more efficient. This underscores the significant role investors play in shaping market efficiency.Behave as if equity markets are...

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 31: The Uncertainty of Investing.LEARNING: Equity investing is always about uncertainty. “Most investors think of investing as much more like risk and forget there's a lot of uncertainty. That's a problem because investing is always about uncertainty. You have to recognize that we cannot rely on historical data to tell us that much about the future.”Larry Swedroe In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry's Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 31: The Uncertainty of Investing.Chapter 31: The Uncertainty of InvestingIn this chapter, Larry explains the difference between risk and uncertainty. He highlights that one of the most important concepts to grasp is that investing is about dealing with both risk and uncertainty.University of Chicago professor Frank Knight defined risk and uncertainty as follows: Risk is present when future events occur with measurable probability. Uncertainty is present when the likelihood of future events is indefinite or incalculable. Larry further explains that risk involves known probabilities, like casino odds or life insurance estimates, while uncertainty involves unknown outcomes, such as major events like the Great Depression or COVID-19.Larry explains that we sometimes know the odds of an event occurring with certainty. For example, because of demographic data, we can reasonably estimate the odds that a 65-year-old couple will have at least one spouse live beyond 90. However, we cannot know the exact odds because future advances in medical science may extend life expectancy. Conversely, new diseases may arise that shorten life expectancy.Why must you understand the difference between risk and uncertainty?Larry insists that it is crucial to understand the difference between risk and uncertainty. This understanding is key, as many investors mistakenly view equities as closer to risk, where the odds can be precisely calculated. This misconception often arises when economic conditions are favorable. The ability to estimate the odds gives investors a false sense of confidence, leading them to make decisions that exceed their ability, willingness, and need to take risks.However, Larry adds that the perception of equity investing shifts from risk to uncertainty during crises. Since investors prefer risky bets (where they can calculate the odds, like investing in a stable company with a proven track record) to uncertain bets (where the odds cannot be calculated, like investing in a startup with an unpredictable future) when the markets begin to appear to investors to become uncertain, the risk premium demanded rises, and that is what causes severe bear markets.Further, dramatic falls in prices lead to panicked...

After all these years in property, I'm still surprised at how some investors decide which property to buy, however it doesn't really surprise me why so many don't get past their first or second property. You see… many buy for emotional reasons, and while others think they're investing in property, for some, they're really speculating.  In today's show episode, I discuss common mistakes in property investment with Brett Warren, focusing on the dangers of hot-spotting.   We emphasise the importance of long-term strategies, economic fundamentals, and the need for a solid investment plan. Our conversation highlights the risks of following trends and the necessity of understanding market dynamics to build a sustainable property portfolio.   Takeaways  Investing in hotspots is often a form of speculation. Long-term strategies are essential for successful property investment. Economic fundamentals drive property value growth. Owner-occupiers play a crucial role in the property market. Avoid following the crowd; focus on informed decisions. A solid investment plan is necessary for long-term success. Understanding market dynamics is key to navigating risks. Investing should be based on facts, not opinions. The media often overlooks critical insights about property investing.   Chapters  00:00 Understanding Property Investment vs. Speculation 04:26 The Risks of Hotspotting in Real Estate 06:54 Long-Term Strategies for Successful Investing 09:42 The Importance of Economic Fundamentals 12:23 Demographics and Their Impact on Property Markets 15:26 Navigating the Property Investment Landscape 18:02 Avoiding Common Pitfalls in Property Investment 20:37 Creating a Sustainable Investment Plan 23:31 The Role of Owner-Occupiers in Market Stability 26:13 Looking Ahead: Media Influence on Property Decisions 26:19 Navigating the Changing Property Market 28:05 Investment Strategies for Long-Term Growth 28:29 Understanding the Spotlight Effect 31:04 Consequences of the Spotlight Effect   Links and Resources: Michael Yardney Get the team at Metropole to help build your personal Strategic Property Plan Click here and have a chat with us Brett Warren - National Director of Property at Metropole Get a bundle of eBooks and Reports at www.PodcastBonus.com.au Also, please subscribe to my other podcast Demographics Decoded with Simon Kuestenmacher – just look for  Demographics Decoded wherever you are listening to this podcast and subscribe so each week we can unveil the trends shaping your future.  

In this conversation, Christian interviews Candis Conley, a seasoned real estate professional with over 20 years of experience in both residential and commercial real estate. Candis shares her journey from corporate America to becoming a full-time real estate investor and consultant. The discussion covers the differences between residential and commercial real estate, financing strategies, the use of self-directed IRAs for investment, and the concerning statistic regarding the future net worth of Black American households. Candis emphasizes the importance of education, relationships, and making informed decisions in real estate investment.   Professional Real Estate Investors - How we can help you: Investor Fuel Mastermind:  Learn more about the Investor Fuel Mastermind, including 100% deal financing, massive discounts from vendors and sponsors you're already using, our world class community of over 150 members, and SO much more here: http://www.investorfuel.com/apply   Investor Machine Marketing Partnership:  Are you looking for consistent, high quality lead generation? Investor Machine is America's #1 lead generation service professional investors. Investor Machine provides true ‘white glove' support to help you build the perfect marketing plan, then we'll execute it for you…talking and working together on an ongoing basis to help you hit YOUR goals! Learn more here: http://www.investormachine.com   Coaching with Mike Hambright:  Interested in 1 on 1 coaching with Mike Hambright? Mike coaches entrepreneurs looking to level up, build coaching or service based businesses (Mike runs multiple 7 and 8 figure a year businesses), building a coaching program and more. Learn more here: https://investorfuel.com/coachingwithmike   Attend a Vacation/Mastermind Retreat with Mike Hambright: Interested in joining a “mini-mastermind” with Mike and his private clients on an upcoming “Retreat”, either at locations like Cabo San Lucas, Napa, Park City ski trip, Yellowstone, or even at Mike's East Texas “Big H Ranch”? Learn more here: http://www.investorfuel.com/retreat   Property Insurance: Join the largest and most investor friendly property insurance provider in 2 minutes. Free to join, and insure all your flips and rentals within minutes! There is NO easier insurance provider on the planet (turn insurance on or off in 1 minute without talking to anyone!), and there's no 15-30% agent mark up through this platform!  Register here: https://myinvestorinsurance.com/   New Real Estate Investors - How we can work together: Investor Fuel Club (Coaching and Deal Partner Community): Looking to kickstart your real estate investing career? Join our one of a kind Coaching Community, Investor Fuel Club, where you'll get trained by some of the best real estate investors in America, and partner with them on deals! You don't need $ for deals…we'll partner with you and hold your hand along the way! Learn More here: http://www.investorfuel.com/club   —--------------------

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 30: The Economically Irrational Investor Preference for Dividend-Paying Stocks.LEARNING: The dividend policy is irrelevant to stock returns. “Stock prices tend to rise in the month before they pay the dividend, because dumb retail investors overvalue dividends, and then they tend to revert back after the dividend gets paid.”Larry Swedroe In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry's Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 30: The Economically Irrational Investor Preference for Dividend-Paying Stocks.Chapter 30: The Economically Irrational Investor Preference for Dividend-Paying StocksIn this chapter, Larry discusses why many investors prefer cash dividends, especially those using a cash flow approach to spending.Larry explains that experts have established that dividend policy should be irrelevant to stock returns, which is supported by historical evidence. Stocks with the same exposure to common factors (such as size, value, momentum, and profitability/quality) have had the same returns, whether they pay dividends or not. Despite theory and evidence, many investors express a preference for dividend-paying stocks.The fallacy of the free dividendAs Larry explains, investors tend to assume that dividends offer a safe hedge against the large price fluctuations that stocks experience. However, this assumption ignores that the dividend is offset by the fall in the stock price—the fallacy of the free dividend is a common misconception in the investment world.Larry adds that stocks with the same “loading,” or exposure, to the four factors (size, value, momentum, and profitability/quality) have the same expected return regardless of their dividend policy. This has important implications because about 60% of US and 40% of international stocks do not pay dividends.Thus, any screen that includes dividends results in far less diversified portfolios than they could be if they had not included dividends in the portfolio design. Less diversified portfolios are less efficient because they have a higher potential dispersion of returns without any compensation in the form of higher expected returns.Taxes matterLarry notes that what is particularly puzzling about the preference for dividends is that taxable investors should favor the self-dividend (by selling shares) if cash flow is required. Taxes play a crucial role in investment decisions, and understanding their implications is essential for making informed choices.Even in tax-advantaged accounts, investors who diversify globally (the prudent strategy) should prefer capital gains because the foreign tax credits associated with dividends have no value in tax-advantaged accounts.Why

Today, I'm speaking with Larry Swedroe. Larry is the former Chief Research Officer at Buckingham Strategic Wealth, an accomplished author with 18+ books on investing, and a true pioneer in evidence-based investing. He's also a well-known advocate for cutting through the financial media noise to focus on strategies that actually work. In Larry's latest book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing, he distills decades of financial wisdom into 40 powerful stories that make investing principles easy to understand and apply. In our conversation, Larry shares the science behind behavioral finance and explains why most investors fall prey to emotional biases, media hype, and market timing traps. We also dive into why passive investing remains a leading strategy among investors, how to truly measure risk, and why a globally diversified portfolio beats stock-picking in the long run.  GET FREE ACCESS TO LARRY'S BOOK TITLED, ENRICH YOUR FUTURE: THE KEYS TO SUCCESSFUL INVESTING Here's all you have to do... Step 1.) Subscribe to the podcast and leave an honest rating & review over on iTunes. Step 2.) Text the word BOOK to 866-599-4491 and we'll make sure you get signed up for free. It's that simple! In this podcast interview, you'll learn: Why passive investing isn't just a trend—it's a game-changer for wealth-building. The biggest mistakes investors make and how to avoid them. The difference between risk and uncertainty, and why most investors get it wrong. Why the market is smarter than any single investor and what that means for your portfolio. How to structure an investment portfolio based on empirical research, not emotions. The surprising link between retirement, purpose, and mental health—especially for retired men. Show Notes: RetireWithPurpose.com/494

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 28: Buy, Hold, or Sell and the Endowment Effect and Chapter 29: The Drivers of Investor Behavior.LEARNING: Smart people are humble and able to admit when they have made a mistake. “As humans, we make all kinds of behavioral errors. Thus, it should not be surprising that we make them when investing. Smart people are, however, humble and able to admit when they have made a mistake.”Larry Swedroe In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry's Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 28: Buy, Hold, or Sell and the Endowment Effect and Chapter 29: The Drivers of Investor Behavior.Chapter 28: Buy, Hold, or Sell and the Endowment EffectIn this chapter, Larry discusses one of the more frequent risk management problems: holding or selling an asset and how the endowment effect affects this decision.The endowment effectLarry begins by empathetically explaining how the endowment effect, a common behavioral quirk, often causes individuals to make poor investment decisions. For example, it leads investors to hold onto assets they wouldn't purchase if they didn't already own them. Whether it's because the assets don't fit into their asset allocation plan or because they view them as overpriced, they're no longer the best choice from a risk/reward perspective.Larry shares the most common example of the endowment effect. People are often reluctant to sell stocks or mutual funds that they inherited or a deceased spouse purchased. Many people will usually say, “I can't sell that stock; it was my grandfather's favorite, and he'd owned it since 1952.” Or, “That stock has been in my family for generations.” Or, “My husband worked for that company for 40 years. I couldn't possibly sell it.”Another example of an investor subject to the endowment effect is stock accumulated through stock options or some type of profit-sharing/retirement plan.How to avoid the endowment effectLarry says you can avoid the endowment effect by asking: If I didn't already own this asset, how much would I buy today as part of my overall investment plan? If the answer is, “I wouldn't buy any,” or, “I would buy less than I currently hold,” you should sell. The rule applies whether the asset is a bottle of wine, a stock, a bond, or a mutual fund.He adds that you should only own an investment if it fits into your overall asset allocation plan.Chapter 29: The Drivers of Investor BehaviorIn this chapter, Larry discusses how investors make errors simply because they are humans prone to behavioral mistakes. He reviews some of the more common ones to help you avoid making such mistakes.Ego-driven investmentsIn this type of mistake, investors want more than...

Boundaries and Successful Investing. CNBC's Bad Advice. An Ugly Obamacare Anniversary. Consumer Confidence at 12 Year Low. Klarna is for stupid people! 23andMe Bankrupt! Signal Chat…Classified or Not?? Auto Tariffs are ON! Beware of Investment Pledges!!! Budget Groundhog Day! DOGE Cancels the Consultants!! Influencers and the Death of the West. Europe's Faux Military Pledge. DeSantis Returns Taxpayer Funds! Trump Cuts Off Kangaroo U. Did the Swamp Save Boeing with the F-47? Righteous Gemstones in The White House? Crockett Spins Hot Wheels! Angry Old Women Hippies Have Taken Over the Donkey Party!

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 27: Pascal's Wager and the Making of Prudent Decisions.LEARNING: Use Pascal's wager to avoid making devastating mistakes. “You have to think about the cost of being wrong versus giving up on that hope or the ability to brag about how you pick the best-performing stock. Pascal's wager gives you the right way to think about the answer. And then, you get to enjoy your life much more.”Larry Swedroe In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry's Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 27: Pascal's Wager and the Making of Prudent Decisions.Chapter 27: Pascal's Wager and the Making of Prudent DecisionsIn this chapter, Larry discusses Pascal's wager, a suggestion posed by the French philosopher Blaise Pascal that emphasizes the importance of considering the consequences of decisions rather than just the probability of outcomes.Pascal's wagerIn Pascal's wager, the philosopher asked how we should act when we cannot prove or disprove if God exists. To answer this question, the philosopher said: if a Supreme Being doesn't exist, then all the devout have lost is the opportunity to fornicate, imbibe, and skip a lot of adult church services. But if God does exist, then the atheist roasts in hell for eternity.Pascal concluded that the consequences of your actions matter far more than whatever you think the probabilities of the outcomes might be.Using Pascal's wager to make financial decisionsPascal's wager empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. It encourages us to carefully consider the consequences before accepting the risks involved in case we are wrong. This approach can be applied to a wide range of financial decisions, instilling confidence in our choices.Buying life insuranceImagine you're an average 28-year-old. You got married a few years ago and have your first child. Now, you must decide whether you should have life insurance. If you buy the life insurance, you know with a very high degree of certainty for the next 40 years, you're going to be paying away a premium to the life insurance company and foregoing their earnings that you could get by taking that money investing in the stock market and maybe get a seven to 10% per annum return.Yet, most people buy the insurance because of the consequences of their being wrong, and they happen to be unlucky enough to die, either through an accident or some disease that wasn't forecasted for them. Then, their wives and children may live in poverty. And that's just a consequence that's not acceptable.Asset allocationIn another example, Pascal discusses

Today on the podcast, we're welcoming Barry Ritholtz. He's co-founder, chairman, and chief investment officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management, a firm that was launched in 2013. He's the creator and host of Masters in Business, one of the earliest finance-related podcasts. He also regularly posts on The Big Picture, where he's been covering everything investing related since 2003. He is the author of Bailout Nation, and his latest book, How Not to Invest: The Ideas, Numbers, and Behaviors That Destroy Wealth—and How to Avoid Them, has just been published.Background and BooksBarry Ritholtz LinkedInRitholtz Wealth ManagementBailout Nation: How Greed and Easy Money Corrupted Wall Street and Shook the World Economy, with New Post-Crisis UpdateHow Not to Invest: The ideas, numbers, and behavior that destroy wealth—and how to avoid themPodcasts and MoreMasters in Business podcastThe Big Picture“Masters in Business - Ray Dalio Full Show,” Masters in Business podcast, Nov. 30, 2018“An Interview With Ken Feinberg: Masters in Business,” Masters in Business podcast, Oct. 9, 2015“MiB: Charley Ellis on Rethinking Investing,” Masters in Business podcast, Feb. 21, 2025“Why Fear Is an Investor's Worst Enemy” by Samantha Lamas from the 2017 Morningstar ETF Conference, Morningstar.com, Sept. 12, 2017“Rabbithole: What Do People Get Wrong About Money?” The Big Picture, March 10, 2025“It's Been 40 Years Since Our Cover Story Declared ‘The Death of Equities,' ” by Peter Coy, Bloomberg, Aug. 13, 2019ReadingsWinning the Loser's Game: Timeless Strategies for Successful Investing, Eighth Edition, by Charles D. EllisExpert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, by Philip E. TetlockFour Thousand Weeks: Time Management for Mortals, by Oliver BurkemanPrinciples, by Ray Dalio

Justin Donald reveals the playbook investment strategies by the ultra-wealthy, highlighting their focus on alternative assets like private equity, private credit, and unique real estate ideas rather than traditional stock market investments.Sign Up For The Alternative Investment Sheet: https://betterwealth.com/altassetlistConnect with Justin Donald: YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@thelifestyleinvestor Free ($500 Value) Consultation: https://lifestyleinvestor.com/consultation00:00 The Wealthy and Alternative Investments09:10 Masterclass on Alternative Investing12:29 The Role of Family Offices18:37 Private Credit24:53 The Real Estate Landscape: Opportunities and Risks28:18 Creating a Resource for Alternative Assets30:10 Vetting Deals: Key Principles for Success35:28 Future Real Estate Trends and Opportunities41:40 Exploring the Landscape of Private Equity and Venture Capital43:24 Strategies for Successful Investing in Private Equity45:41 The Role of Precious Metals and Cryptocurrency in Investment47:03 Investing in Oil and Gas: Risks and Rewards48:36 The Importance of Tax Strategy in Wealth Building49:56 Life Insurance as a Financial ToolDISCLAIMER: https://bttr.ly/aapolicy*This video is for entertainment purposes only and is not financial or legal advice.Financial Advice Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for education, discussion, and illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice or recommendation. Should you need such advice, consult a licensed financial or tax advisor. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy of the information on this channel. Neither host nor guests can be held responsible for any direct or incidental loss incurred by applying any of the information offered.

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 26: Dollar Cost Averaging.LEARNING: Invest all your money whenever you have it. “If you want to put the odds in your favor, which is the best we can do because we don't have clear crystal balls, you should put all your money in whenever you have it to invest.”Larry Swedroe In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry's Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 26: Dollar Cost Averaging.Chapter 26: Dollar Cost AveragingIn this chapter, Larry discusses why lump sum investing is better than dollar cost averaging.Should you invest your money all at once or spread it over time?According to Larry, the issue of Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) typically arises when an investor receives a large lump sum of money and wonders if they should invest it all at once or spread it over time. The same problem arises when an investor panics and sells when confronted with a bear market, but then there are two questions: How does the investor decide when it is safe to reenter the market? And does she reinvest all at once or by DCA?Constantinides, a University of Chicago professor in the 1960s, studied this question. He demonstrated that DCA is an inferior strategy to lump sum investing. He termed it logically dumb as it makes no sense based on an expected return outcome. From a purely financial perspective, the logical answer is that if you have money to invest, you should always invest it whenever it's available.Another paper by John Knight and Lewis Mandell compared DCA to a buy-and-hold strategy. Then, it analyzed the strategies across a series of investor profiles from risk-averse to aggressive. They concluded that DCA had no advantage over the two alternative investment strategies. Combined with their graphical analysis, their numerical trial and empirical evidence favored optimal rebalancing and buy-and-hold strategy over dollar cost averaging. Optimal rebalancing refers to the strategy of adjusting the proportions of assets in a portfolio to maintain a desired level of risk and return.Dollar cost averaging versus lump sum investingKnight and Mandell conducted a backtest to compare the performance of DCA versus LSI (lump sum investing). Backtesting is a simulation technique to evaluate the performance of a trading strategy using historical data. They backtested the two strategies between 1926 and 2010. Transaction costs were ignored (favoring DCA, which involves more trading). The authors assumed the initial portfolio was $1 million in cash, and the...

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 25: Battles are Won Before They Are Fought.LEARNING: Be well-prepared for potential disruptions in the market. “Many investors let emotions drive their decisions, and they end up buying high and selling low—the opposite of what you are doing when rebalancing.”Larry Swedroe In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry's Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 25: Battles are Won Before They Are Fought.Chapter 25: Battles Are Won Before They Are FoughtIn this chapter, Larry emphasizes the importance of strategic planning to anticipate market shocks, which occur approximately once every three or four years. This proactive approach ensures that investors are well-prepared for potential disruptions in the market.Historical distribution of stock returnsGene Fama studied the historical distribution of stock returns and found that the population of price changes if it was strictly normal on any stock, then a standard deviation shift from the mean of five standard deviations should occur about once every 7,000 years.The reality, though, is it occurs about once every three or four years in the US equity markets. That means the distribution of returns is not normally distributed. To illustrate this, Larry shares evidence of big fat tails in the distribution. From 1926–2022, in 26 out of the 97 years, the S&P 500 Index produced negative returns. In 11 of those years, the losses were greater than 10%. In six of the years, the losses exceeded 20%. In three of the years, the losses exceeded 30%. In one year, the loss exceeded 40%.Prepare to live through a big market downturnAccording to Larry, the data unequivocally shows that stocks are risky assets, with risks that are more prevalent than historical volatility would suggest. Investors must be prepared to face severe losses at some point. It's not a matter of if these risks will manifest, but when, how sharp the declines will be, and when they will subside.For investors, Larry underscores the importance of winning the big fat tails battle in the planning stage. Successful investors know that bear markets will happen and that they cannot be predicted with a high degree of accuracy. Thus, they build bear markets into their plans. They determine their ability, willingness, and need to take risks.Larry notes that, on average, prudent investors prepare to live through a big market shock once every three or four years. They ensure that their asset allocation does not cause them to take so much risk that when a bear market inevitably shows up, they might sell in a panic. They also make sure that they don't take so much risk that they lose sleep when emotions caused by bear markets run...

Let's dive into evidence-based investing with Larry Swedroe, a highly successful investor and an outstanding educator in the world of finance. In the episode we have discussed the universal principles of sound, opinions-free investing and the portfolio that bears his name L. Swedroe, Enrich your Future Serenis è il partner di The Bull per il tuo benessere mentale e fisico: un centro medico autorizzato che tramite la sua piattaforma digitale offre percorsi di psicoterapia, nutrizione e coaching online con oltre 1600 professionisti in tutta Italia con in media 13 anni di esperienza.  E lo fa con una missione: rendere accessibile il benessere mentale e fisico affrontando gli ostacoli economici, tecnologici, sociali e culturali che allontanano le persone dal prendersi cura di se stessi. Puoi iniziare un percorso su Serenis per prenderti cura del tuo benessere mentale a un prezzo convenzionato a questo link (#adv). =============================================== Apri un conto Revolut entro il 31/03/2025, conto deposito con interessi al 3% bloccati fino 31/05/2025. Investi con Scalable, PAC in ETF a zero costi d'ordine. Investi con Fineco (60 operazioni gratuite con il codice TRD060-TB) Abbonati a 4Books, 7 gg. di prova gratuita e 30% di sconto. Assicurazione sulla vita con Turtleneck I link sono sponsorizzati e l'Autore potrebbe percepire una commissione. =============================================== ATTENZIONE: I contenuti di questo canale hanno esclusivamente finalità di informare e intrattenere. Le informazioni fornite sul canale hanno valore indicativo e non sono complete circa le caratteristiche dei prodotti menzionati. Chiunque ne faccia uso per fini diversi da quelli puramente informativi cui sono destinati, se ne assume la piena responsabilità. Tutti i riferimenti a singoli strumenti finanziari non devono essere intesi come attività di consulenza in materia di investimenti, né come invito all'acquisto dei prodotti o servizi menzionati. Investire comporta il rischio di perdere il proprio capitale. Investi solo se sei consapevole dei rischi che stai correndo. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 24: Why Do Smart People Do Dumb Things?LEARNING: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Change the criteria you use to select managers. “There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and man's capacity for stupidity.”Larry Swedroe In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry's Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 24: Why Do Smart People Do Dumb Things?Chapter 24: Why Do Smart People Do Dumb Things?In this chapter, Larry discusses why investors still make mistakes despite multiple SEC warnings.The past performance delusionLarry explains that it's normal for most investors to make mistakes when investing, often due to behavioral errors like overconfidence. Being overconfident can cause investors to take too much risk, trade too much, and confuse the familiar with the safe. Those are explainable errors.However, there's one mistake that Larry finds hard to explain. Most investors ignore the SEC's required warning that accompanies all mutual fund advertising: “Past performance does not guarantee future results.” Despite an overwhelming body of evidence, including the annual S&P's Active Versus Passive Scorecards, that demonstrates that active managers' past mutual fund returns are not prologue and the SEC's warning, investors still flock to funds that have performed well in the past.Today's underperforming manager may be tomorrow's outperformerAccording to Larry, various researchers have found that the common selection methodology is detrimental to performance. The greater benchmark-adjusted return to investing in ‘loser funds' over ‘winner funds' is statistically and economically large and robust to reasonable variations in the evaluation and holding periods and standard risk adjustments.Additionally, the standard practice of firing managers who have recently underperformed actually eliminates those managers who are more likely to outperform in the future.Why Are Warnings Worthless?Larry quotes the study “Worthless Warnings? Testing the Effectiveness of Disclaimers in Mutual Fund Advertisements,” which provided some interesting results. The authors found that people viewing the advertisement with the current SEC disclaimer were just as likely to invest in a fund and had the exact expectations regarding a fund's...

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 23: Framing the Problem.LEARNING: Understand how each indexed annuity feature works before buying one. “I would never buy an annuity that didn't give me full inflation protection.”Larry Swedroe In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry's Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 23: Framing the Problem.Chapter 23: Framing the ProblemIn this chapter, Larry discusses how we, as human beings, are subject to biases and mistakes that we're almost certainly not aware of. He introduces the concept of ‘framing' in the context of behavioral finance, which refers to how a question or a problem is presented and how this presentation can influence our decision-making, often leading us to answer how the questioner wants us to.Examples of framingLarry shares the following examples from Jason Zweig's book Your Money & Your Brain to support the theory of framing in decision-making. These examples illustrate how the same information, when presented in different ways, can lead to significantly different decisions, highlighting the impact of framing on our perceptions and choices.A group of people was told ground beef was “75% lean.” Another was told the same meat was “25% fat.” The “fat” group estimated the meat would be 31% lower in quality and taste 22% worse than the “lean” group estimated.Pregnant women are more willing to agree to amniocentesis if told they face a 20% chance of having a Down syndrome child than if told there is an 80% chance they will have a “normal” baby.A study asked more than 400 doctors whether they would prefer radiation or surgery if they became cancer patients themselves. Among the physicians who were informed that 10% would die from surgery, 50% said they would prefer radiation. Among those who were told that 90% would survive the surgery, only 16% chose radiation.The evidence from the three examples shows that if a situation is framed from a negative viewpoint, people focus on that. On the other hand, if a problem is framed...

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 21: You Can't Handle the Truth.LEARNING: Don't put all your eggs in one basket; diversify your portfolio. “Once you have enough to live a high-quality life and enjoy things, taking unwarranted risks becomes unnecessary.”Larry Swedroe In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry's Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 22: Some Risks are Not Worth Taking.Chapter 22: Some Risks Are Not Worth TakingIn this chapter, Larry discusses the importance of investors knowing which risks are worth taking and which are not.The $10 million bet that almost didn't pay offTo kick off this episode, Larry shared a story of an executive who put his entire $10 million portfolio in one stock.Around the late 1999 and early 2000s, Larry was a consultant to a registered investment advisor in Atlanta, and one of their clients was a very senior Intel executive. This executive's net worth was about $13 million, and $10 million was an Intel stock. To Larry's shock, the executive would not consider selling even a small%age of his stock to diversify his portfolio. He was confident that this stock was the best company despite acknowledging the risks of this concentrated strategy. It was, in fact, the NVIDIA of its day. It was trading at spectacular levels. The executive had watched it go up and up and up.Learning from the pastLarry pointed out that there were similar situations not long ago, from the 60s, for example, when we had the Nifty 50 bubble, and, once great companies like Xerox, Polaroid Kodak, and many others disappeared, and these were among the leading stocks.Like this executive, many had invested all their money in a single company and had seen their net worth suffer greatly when these companies crumbled.This history serves as a powerful lesson, enlightening us about the risks of overconfidence and the importance of diversification.The Intel stock comes tumbling downSince he was a senior executive, he believed he would know if Intel was ever in trouble. Larry went ahead and told him some risks were not worth taking. He advised him to sell most of his stock and build a nice, safe, diversified portfolio, mostly even bonds.The executive could withdraw half a million bucks a year from it pretty safely because interest rates were higher, and that was far more than he needed. Larry's advice didn't matter—he couldn't convince him.Within two and a half years, Intel's stock was trading at about $10, falling about 75%. It was not until late in 2017 that it once again reached $40.Some risks are just not worth...

Saving for retirement is largely our own responsibility as individuals. As we live longer, we have a lot of time in retirement to prepare for. Plus, events in the world can be complicated which can make investing a nerve-wracking decision. Fortunately, there are basic core pillars and strategies that successful investors share. In this episode of Ask an Advisor, fee-only fiduciary financial advisor Wes Moss breaks down the five fundamental keys of successful investors to help you better navigate the path to achieving financial freedom and reaching your retirement goals. In the second half of the show, Wes takes a deep dive into one of the pillars: planning. Plus, Christa shares your #AskWes questions and Wes gives his take. All this and more on the January 7, 2025, Ask an Advisor episode. Submit your questions at clark.com/ask. We hope you enjoy the first of our weekly Ask An Advisor episodes, with Christa and Wes going deeper on investing and retirement savings. Let us know what you think in the comments! Learn more about Wes, our newest member of Team Clark: Capital Investment Advisors Wes Moss, CFP® Learn more about your ad choices: megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode, I'm joined by Larry Swedroe, a thought leader in evidence-based investing and former Chief Research Officer at Buckingham Strategic Wealth. Larry has authored over 18 books that have shaped the way people think about personal finance, and now, after 28 years in the industry, he's sharing the most valuable lessons he's learned in retirement planning and investing. In this episode, we dive into his latest book, Enrich Your Future: Keys to Successful Investing. Through 40 captivating stories, Larry exposes the myths and misconceptions that many investors hold, often perpetuated by Wall Street, and replaces them with clear, actionable strategies.  From understanding how overconfidence derails financial success to learning how to balance risk as you approach retirement, this conversation offers invaluable guidance for anyone looking to achieve financial independence. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... [1:33] Larry's process for writing a book [7:33] How the industry has embraced passive investing [17:19] Using tennis to explain the difficulties of active management [21:20] Why do we think we can outperform the market?  [26:57] What approach is prudent for most people? [30:08] Should retirees focus on dividend-producing investments?  [35:02] How to determine the amount of risk to take in your portfolio [39:23] Diving into the concept of indexed annuities  Resources Mentioned Retirement Readiness Review Subscribe to the Retire with Ryan YouTube Channel Connect with Larry Swedroe on LinkedIn The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You'll Ever Need Think, Act, and Invest Like Warren Buffett Your Complete Guide to a Successful and Secure Retirement Connect With Morrissey Wealth Management  www.MorrisseyWealthManagement.com/contact Subscribe to Retire With Ryan

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 21: You Can't Handle the Truth.LEARNING: Overconfidence leads to poor investment decisions. Measure your returns against benchmarks. “If you think you can forecast the future better than others, you're going to ignore risks that you shouldn't ignore because you'll treat the unlikely as possible.”Larry Swedroe In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry's Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 21: You Can't Handle the Truth.Chapter 21: You Can't Handle the TruthIn this chapter, Larry discusses how investors delude themselves about their skills and performance, leading to persistent and costly investment mistakes.The deluded investorAccording to Larry, evidence from the field of behavioral finance suggests that investors persist in deluding themselves about their skills and performance. This persistent self-deception leads to costly investment mistakes, emphasizing the need for continuous vigilance in investment decisions.Larry quotes a New York Times article in which professors Richard Thaler and Robert Shiller noted that individual investors and money managers persist in believing that they are endowed with more and better information than others and can profit by picking stocks. This insight helps explain why individual investors think they can:Pick stocks that will outperform the market.Time the market, so they're in it when it's rising and out of it when it's falling.Identify the few active managers who will beat their respective benchmarks.The overconfident investorLarry adds that even when individuals acknowledge the difficulty of beating the market, they are buoyed by the hope of success. He quotes noted economist Peter Bernstein: “Active management is extraordinarily difficult because there are so many knowledgeable investors and information does move so fast. The market is hard to beat. There are a lot of smart people trying to do the same thing. Nobody's saying that it's easy. But possible? Yes.”This slim possibility keeps hope alive. Overconfidence, fueled by this hope, leads investors to believe they will be among the few who succeed.Why investors spend so much time and money on actively managed mutual fundsLarry also examined another study, Positive Illusions and Forecasting Errors in Mutual Fund Investment Decisions,...

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 20: A Higher Intelligence.LEARNING: Choose passive investing over active investing. “Passive investing involves systematic, transparent, and replicable strategies without individual stock selection or market timing. It's the more ethical way to go.”Larry Swedroe In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry's Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 20: A Higher Intelligence.Chapter 20: A Higher IntelligenceIn this chapter, Larry discusses prudent investing.The Uniform Prudent Investor ActThe Uniform Prudent Investor Act, a cornerstone of prudent investment management, offers two key benefits.Firstly, it underscores the importance of broad diversification in risk management, empowering trustees and investors to make informed decisions.Secondly, it promotes cost control as a vital aspect of prudent investing, providing a clear roadmap for those who may lack the necessary knowledge, skill, time, or interest to manage a portfolio effectively.Ethical malfeasance and misfeasance in investingIn this chapter, Larry sheds light on Michael G. Sher's insights. Sher extensively discusses ethical malfeasance and misfeasance. He says ethical malfeasance occurs when an investment manager does something deliberately or conceals it (e.g., the manager knows that he's too drunk to drive but drives anyway).For example, consider the manager who invests intentionally at a higher level of risk than the client chose without informing them and then generates a subsequently higher return. The manager attributes the alpha or the excess return to his superior skill instead of the reality that he was taking more risk, so it was just more exposure to beta, not alpha.On the other hand, ethical misfeasance occurs when an investment manager does something by accident (e.g., the manager really believes that he's sober enough to drive). Thus, the manager doesn't know what he's doing and shouldn't be managing money.Avoid active investingLarry highly discourages active investing because the evidence shows that active managers who tend to outperform on average outperform by a little bit, and the ones that underperform tend to underperform by a lot.Either they don't have the skill, and they have higher expenses, and the ones who have enough skills to beat the market, most of that skill is offset by their higher costs. So it's still really tough to generate alpha.Passive investing is the ethical way to goAccording to Sher, managing money in an efficient market without investing passively is investment malfeasance.

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 19: Is Gold a Safe Haven Asset?LEARNING: Do not allocate more than 5% of gold to your portfolio. “I don't have a problem with people allocating a very small amount of gold to their portfolio, but they should only do it if they're prepared to earn lousy returns most of the time.”Larry Swedroe In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry's Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 19: Is Gold a Safe Haven Asset?Chapter 19: Is Gold a Safe Haven Asset?In this chapter, Larry explains why you should not buy gold because you think it's a good inflation hedge. While he is fine with people allocating a minimal amount of gold to their portfolio, Larry cautions that they should only do it if they're prepared to earn lousy returns most of the time.Gold as an investment assetGold has long been used as a store of value, a unit of exchange, and as jewelry. More recently, many investors have come to believe that gold should be considered an investment asset, playing a potential role in the asset allocation decision by providing a hedge against currency risk, a hedge against inflation, and a haven of safety during severe economic recessions. Larry reviews various research findings to determine if the evidence supports those beliefs.The evidenceIn their June 2012 study, “The Golden Dilemma,” Claude Erb and Campbell Harvey found that in terms of being a currency hedge, changes in the real price of gold were largely independent of the change in currency values—gold is not a good hedge against currency risk.This means that the value of gold does not necessarily increase or decrease in response to changes in currency values, making it a less effective hedge than commonly believed.Erb and Harvey also found gold isn't quite the safe haven many investors think it is, as 17% of monthly stock returns fell into the category where gold dropped while stocks posted negative returns. If gold acted as a true safe haven, we would expect very few, if any, such observations. Still, 83% of the time, on the right side isn't a bad record.Gold is not an inflation hedge, no matter the trading horizonThe following example provides the answer regarding gold's value as an inflation hedge. On January 21, 1980, the price of gold reached a then-record high of US$850. On March 19, 2002, gold traded at US$293, well below its price two decades earlier. The inflation rate for the period from 1980 through 2001 was 3.9%.Thus, gold's loss in real purchasing power, which refers to the amount of goods or services that can be purchased with a unit of gold, was

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 18: Black Swans and Fat Tails.LEARNING: Never treat the unlikely as impossible. Diversify your portfolio to withstand black swans. “If you build a portfolio that can withstand the black swans and is highly diversified, then psychological or economic events won't force you to sell.”Larry Swedroe In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry's Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 18: Black Swans and Fat Tails.Chapter 18: Black Swans and Fat TailsIn this chapter, Larry explains the importance of never treating the unlikely as impossible and ensuring your plan includes the near certainty that black swan events will appear. Thus, your plan should consider their risks and how to address them.Understanding the risk of fat tailsIn terms of investing, Larry says, fat tails are distributions in which very low and high values are more frequent than a normal distribution predicts. In a normal distribution, the tails to the extreme left and extreme right of the mean become smaller, ultimately reaching zero occurrences.However, the historical evidence on stock returns is that they demonstrate occurrences of low and high values that are far greater than theoretically expected by a normal distribution. Thus, understanding the risk of fat tails is essential to developing an appropriate asset allocation and investment plan. Unfortunately, Larry notes, many investors fail to account for the risks of fat tails.History of the black swansWith the publication of Nassim Nicholas Taleb's 2001 book Fooled by Randomness, the term black swan became part of the investment vernacular—virtually synonymous with the term fat tail. In his second book, The Black Swan, published in 2007, Taleb called a black swan an event with three attributes:It is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility.It carries an extreme impact.Despite its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.Taleb went on further to show that stock returns have big fat tails. Their distribution of returns is not normally distributed, and fat tails mean that what people think are unlikely events are much more likely to occur than people believe will.To illustrate this, Larry uses an example: if you take stock returns, and in the last 100 years, you cut out one best month per year, which is 1% of the...

Have you ever wondered how the world's top financial thinkers shaped the way we invest today? In this episode, Ben and Cameron sit down with Professor Stephen Foerster from the Ivey Business School to explore the evolution of modern investing. As a distinguished financial expert and co-author of In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio, Professor Foerster dives into the groundbreaking work of financial pioneers like Harry Markowitz, Bill Sharpe, Gene Fama, and others, unpacking their remarkable contributions to portfolio management, risk assessment, and market efficiency as we know it today. Tuning in, you'll gain a deeper understanding of Markowitz's revolutionary diversification theory, Sharpe's introduction of beta as a risk measure, and Fama's Efficient Market Hypothesis, as well as each of their perspectives on the “perfect portfolio,” tying together the history, theory, and practical application of modern investment strategies. Whether you're looking to sharpen your strategy or build your investment knowledge from the ground up, this conversation with Professor Foerster is packed with actionable takeaways and fascinating stories that could change the way you approach your financial future. Don't miss this opportunity to learn from the thought leaders who shaped the market!   Key Points From This Episode:   (0:03:29) Contrasting the historical art of investing with the modern science of investing. (0:04:44) Markowitz's diversification theory and the importance of balancing risk and return. (0:09:39) Sharpe's capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and his contribution to measuring risk. (0:16:13) Insight into Fama's Efficient Markets Hypothesis and the joint hypothesis problem. (0:19:13) The rise of factor investing and the significance of Fama-French's three-factor model. (0:23:26) Unpacking Shiller and Fama's main point of disagreement on bubbles. (0:26:50) Bogle's perfect portfolio and persistence about the index fund, despite resistance. (0:29:37) How the Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) option pricing formula changed the world. (0:34:37) Ways that Merton contributed to portfolio theory and his take on TIPS. (0:36:20) Key takeaways from talks with Martin Leibowitz, Charlie Ellis, and Jeremy Siegel. (0:37:35) An interesting analogy for Professor Foerster's take on the “perfect portfolio.” (0:40:53) Correlation vs. causation in stock pricing and how it applies to factor investing. (0:46:38) Examples of masterly inactivity and investor lessons from Madoff's Ponzi scheme. (0:52:07) The dangers of FOMO, a SPACs cautionary tale, and lessons from value investors. (1:00:43) Winning at tennis vs. investing and risks of over-reliance on automated decisions. (1:06:02) Long-term lessons from pioneers in finance to improve investment strategies today.   Links From Today's Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — https://www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — info@rationalreminder.caBenjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Professor Stephen Foerster — https://stephenrfoerster.com/ Ivey Business School — https://www.ivey.uwo.ca/ Stephen Foerster on LinkedIn – https://www.linkedin.com/in/stephen-foerster-26b85319/ Stephen Foerster on X – https://x.com/profsfoerster Stephen Foerster Books — https://www.amazon.com/stores/author/B001KDO1L0 ‘Cristiano Ronaldo snubbed Coca-Cola. The company's market value fell $4 billion.' — https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2021/06/16/cristiano-ronaldo-coca-cola/   Books From Today's Episode:   In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio: The Stories, Voices, and Key Insights of the Pioneers Who Shaped the Way We Invest — https://www.amazon.com/dp/0691229880 Trailblazers, Heroes, and Crooks: Stories to Make You a Smarter Investor — https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0DHLVYK1Q In Pursuit of the Unknown: 17 Equations That Changed the World — https://www.amazon.com/dp/0465085989 A History of Interest Rates — https://www.amazon.com/dp/0471732834 Winning the Loser's Game: Timeless Strategies for Successful Investing — https://www.amazon.com/dp/0071813659 Stocks for the Long Run — https://www.amazon.com/dp/1264269803/ Extraordinary Tennis For The Ordinary Player — https://www.amazon.com/dp/0517511991   Papers From Today's Episode:    ‘Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work' — https://doi.org/10.2307/2325486 ‘The Loser's Game' — https://doi.org/10.2469/faj.v31.n4.19 'The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities' — https://doi.org/10.1142/9789814759588_0001  

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 17: There is Only One Way to See Things Rightly.LEARNING: Consider the overall impact of investments rather than focusing on individual metrics. "There is only one right way to build a portfolio—by recognizing that the risk and return of any asset class by itself should be irrelevant."Larry Swedroe In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry's Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 17: There is Only One Way to See Things Rightly.Chapter 17: There is Only One Way to See Things RightlyIn this chapter, Larry enlightens us on the benefits of considering the overall impact of investments rather than focusing on individual metrics. This holistic approach empowers investors and advisors to make more informed decisions.Don't view an asset class's returns and risk in isolationA common mistake that investors and even professional advisors often make is viewing an asset class's returns and risk in isolation. Larry emphasizes this point by giving the example of Vanguard's popular index funds, the largest index funds in their respective categories, to make us all more cautious and aware of the potential pitfalls of this approach.From 1998 through 2022, the Vanguard 500 Index Fund (VFINX) returned 7.53% per annum, outperforming Vanguard's Emerging Markets Index Fund (VEIEX), which returned 6.14% per annum. VFINX also experienced lower volatility of 15.7% versus 22.6% for VEIEX. The result was that VFINX produced a much higher Sharpe ratio (risk-adjusted return measure) of 0.43 versus 0.30 for VEIEX.Why more volatile emerging markets have a higher returnAccording to Larry, despite including an allocation to the lower returning and more volatile VEIEX, a portfolio of 90% VFINX/10% VEIEX, rebalanced annually, would have outperformed, returning 7.59%. And it did so while also producing the same Sharpe ratio of 0.43. Perhaps surprisingly, a 20% allocation to VEIEX would have done even better, returning 7.61% with a 0.43 Sharpe ratio.Even a 30% allocation to VEIEX would have returned 7.59%, higher than the 7.53% return of VFINX (though the Sharpe ratio would have fallen slightly to 0.42 from 0.43). The portfolios that included an allocation to the lower-returning and more volatile emerging markets benefited from the imperfect correlation of returns (0.77) between the S&P 500 Index and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.The right way to build a portfolioLarry says there is only one right way to build a portfolio—by recognizing that the risk and return of any asset class by itself should be irrelevant. The only thing that should matter is considering how adding an asset class impacts the risk and return of the entire...

Listen onApple | Listen Notes | Spotify | YouTube | OtherQuick takeIn this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 16: All Crystal Balls are Cloudy.LEARNING: Estimated return is not always inevitable. “If returns are negative early on, don't withdraw large amounts because when the market eventually recovers, you won't have that money to earn your returns.”Larry Swedroe In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry's Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 16: All Crystal Balls are Cloudy.Chapter 16: All crystal balls are cloudyIn this chapter, Larry illustrates why past returns are not crystal balls that predict future returns.According to Larry, the problem with all forecasts that deal with estimations of probabilities is that people tend to think of them in a deterministic way. He says that as an investor, you should think about returns with the idea that distribution and estimate are only the middle points.Your plan has to be prepared for either the good tail to show up, which is easy to deal with and usually will allow you to take chips off the table and reduce your risk because you'll be well ahead of your goal. But if the bad tail shows up, you may have to either work longer, plan on saving more, or rebalance, which means buying stocks at a tough time.The threat of sequence riskTo demonstrate the danger of sequence risk, Larry asks us to imagine it's 1973, and stocks have returned 8% in real terms and 10% in nominal returns. We've had similar results over the next 50 years. Say an investor in that time frame decides to withdraw 7% yearly from their portfolio in real terms because they know with their clear crystal ball that they will get 8% for the next 50 years.This means if they take out, say, $100,000 in the first year, and inflation is 3%, to keep their actual spending the same, they have to take out $103,000. According to Larry, this investor will be bankrupt within 10 years due to the sequence of returns, which is the order in which the returns occur, not the returns themselves.As you can see in the table below, despite providing an 8.7% per annum real return over the 27 years, because the S&P 500 Index declined by more than 37% from January 1973 through December 1974, withdrawing an inflation-adjusted 7% per annum in the portfolio caused it to be depleted by the end of 1982—in just 10 years! (Note that from January 1973 through October 1974, when the bear market ended, the...

As we rapidly approach November, one topic seems to suck up all of the oxygen in terms of current events—and it's not Thanksgiving. No one knows what will happen after the election, but given the razor-thin margins and the heated political climate in America, turbulence is likely. To succeed in investing long-term, focus on buying solid companies that meet Rule #1 criteria and are “on sale.” Many people struggle with this due to stress, market fluctuations, or other distractions. Managing your emotions is key to making rational investment decisions, which depends on how well you take care of yourself. Stress and fear lead to poor choices, so practice staying mindful, whether through meditation, exercise, or reading, to keep a clear head and avoid emotional decisions. On this Vault episode pulled from the last presidential election cycle in the US, Phil and Danielle discuss the negative effects of stress on one's investing practice and how mitigating that stress can improve your well-being in addition to your portfolio. For more help with avoiding costly investing mistakes, click here to get a free copy of 10 Do's and Don'ts of Successful Investing: https://bit.ly/3XyEDbD Topics Discussed: COVID-19 Li Liu Self-improvement and self-discovery Ralph Lauren Tesla Circle of competence Dealing with stress Transcendental meditation  Resources Discussed: The Seven Storey Mountain For Love of the Game Turtles All the Way Down Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 15: Individual Stocks Are Riskier Than Investors Believe.LEARNING: Don't invest in individual stocks. Instead, diversify your portfolio to reduce your risk. “Diversification has been said to be the only free lunch in investing. Unfortunately, most investors fail to use the full buffet available.”Larry Swedroe In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry's Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 15: Individual Stocks Are Riskier Than Investors Believe.Chapter 15: Individual Stocks Are Riskier Than Investors BelieveIn this chapter, Larry reveals the stark reality of investing in individual stocks, highlighting the significant risks involved. His aim is to help investors understand the potential pitfalls of this high-stakes game and why they should avoid it.Given the apparent benefits of diversification, it's baffling why investors don't hold highly diversified portfolios. According to Larry, one reason is that most investors likely don't understand how risky individual stocks are compared to owning a broad selection of hundreds or thousands of stocks.Evidence that individual stocks are very riskyLarry notes that the stock market has returned roughly 10% per year over the last 100 years, and the standard deviation on an annual basis of a portfolio of a broad market of stocks has been about 20%. He observes that most people don't understand that the average individual stock has a standard deviation of more than twice that.In another study from 1983 to 2006 that covered the top 3,000 stocks, the stock market returned almost 13% per annum, but the median return was just 5.1%, nearly 8% below the market's return. The mean annualized return was -1.1%. This means that if you randomly pick one stock, the odds would say you're more likely to get -1.1%. However, if you own hundreds or thousands of stocks, the odds are in your favor, and you'll get very close to that mean return.Larry shares another stark example of the riskiness of individual stocks. Despite the 1990s being one of the greatest bull markets of all time, with the Russell 3000 providing an annualized return of 17.7% and a cumulative return of almost 410%, 22% of the 2,397 U.S. stocks in existence throughout the decade had negative absolute returns. This means they underperformed by at least 410%. Over the decade, inflation was a cumulative 33.5%, meaning they lost at least 33.5% in real terms.In another study by Hendrik Bessembinder of all common stocks listed on the NYSE, Amex, and NASDAQ exchanges from 1926 through 2015 and

Mike Harrison shares his journey from corporate America to financial freedom through real estate investing. He outlines various paths to success, including the option to become an Independent Rental Owner (IRO) for those looking to actively manage their properties, as well as opportunities for passive investing. Click to Listen Now

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 14: Stocks Are Risky No Matter How Long the Horizon.LEARNING: Stocks are risky no matter the length of your investment horizon “Investors should never take more risk than is appropriate to their personal situation.”Larry Swedroe In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry's Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 14: Stocks Are Risky No Matter How Long the Horizon.Chapter 14: Stocks Are Risky No Matter How Long the HorizonIn this chapter, Larry illustrates why stocks are risky no matter how long the investment horizon is.According to Larry, the claim that stocks are not risky if one's horizon is long is based on just one set of data (the U.S.) for one period (albeit a long one). It could be that the results were due to a ‘lucky draw.' In other words, if stocks are only risky when one's horizon is short, we should see evidence of this in other markets. Unfortunately, investors in many different markets did not receive the kind of returns U.S. investors did.Historical examples of stock market risksLarry presents evidence from several markets, reinforcing the historical data that stocks are also risky over the long term.First, Larry looks at U.S. equity returns 20 years back from 1949. The S&P 500 Index had returned 3.1 percent per year, underperforming long-term government bonds by 0.8 percent per year—so much for the argument that stocks always beat bonds if the horizon is 20 years or more.In 1900, the Egyptian stock market was the fifth largest in the world, attracting significant capital inflows from global investors. However, those investors are still waiting for the return ON their capital, let alone the return OF their capital.In the 1880s, two promising countries in the Western Hemisphere received capital inflows from Europe for development purposes: the U.S. and Argentina. One group of long-term investors was well rewarded, while the other was not.Finally, in December 1989, the Nikkei index reached an intraday all-time high of 38,957. From 1990 through 2022, Japanese large-cap stocks (MSCI/Nomura) returned just 0.2 percent a year—a total return of just 6 percent. Considering cumulative inflation over the period was about 15 percent, Japanese large-cap stocks lost about 9 percent in real terms over the 33 years.Taking the risk of equity ownershipLarry notes that the most crucial lesson investors need to learn from this evidence is that while it is true that the longer your investment horizon, the greater your ability to take the risk of investing in stocks (because you have a greater ability to wait out a bear market without having to sell to raise capital), stocks are risky no matter the length of your...

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 13: Between a Rock and a Hard Place.LEARNING: Past performance is not a strong predictor of future performance. “If you must invest actively, find active funds that design their strategies more intelligently to take advantage of the problems and at least avoid pitfalls.”Larry Swedroe In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry's Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 13: Between a Rock and a Hard Place.Chapter 13: Between a Rock and a Hard PlaceIn this chapter, Larry illustrates why past performance is not a strong predictor of future performance.Academic research has found that prominent financial advisors, investment policy committees, and pension and retirement plans engage top academic practitioners to help them identify future managers who will outperform the market. Such entities only hire managers with a track record of outperforming. They analyze their performance to see if it is statistically significant.However, research also shows that, on average, the active managers chosen based on outstanding track records have failed to live up to expectations. The underperformance relative to passive benchmarks invariably leads decision-makers to fire the active manager. And the process begins anew.A new round of due diligence is performed, and a new manager is selected to replace the poorly performing one. And, almost invariably, the process is repeated a few years later. So whenever pension plans interview Larry and he notices this hiring pattern, he always asks them what their hiring process is and what they're doing differently this time since, you know, the same process failed persistently, causing regular turnover of managers. Nobody has ever answered that question.According to Larry, many individual investors go through the same motions of picking a manager and end up with the same results—a high likelihood of poor performance.Doing the same thing over and over expecting a different result is insanityLarry observes that the conventional wisdom that past performance is a strong predictor of future performance is so firmly ingrained in our culture that it seems almost no one stops to ask if it is correct, even in the face of persistent failure. Larry wonders why investors aren't asking themselves: “If the process I used to choose a manager that would deliver outperformance failed, and I use the same process the next time, why should I expect anything but failure the next time?”The answer is painfully apparent. If you don't do anything different, you should expect the same result. Yet, so many investors do not ask this simple question.Larry insists that it is essential to understand that neither the purveyors of active...

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 12: Outfoxing the Box.LEARNING: You don't have to engage in active investing; instead, accept market returns by investing passively. “You don't have to play the game of active investing. You don't have to try to overcome abysmal odds—odds that make the crap tables at Las Vegas seem appealing. Instead, you can outfox the box and accept market returns by investing passively.”Larry Swedroe In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry's Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 12: Outfoxing the Box.Chapter 12: Outfoxing the BoxIn this chapter, Larry aims to guide investors toward a winning investment strategy: accepting market returns. He uses Bill Schultheis's “Outfoxing the Box.” This is a simple game that you can choose to either play or not play. The box contains nine percentages, each representing a rate of return your financial assets are guaranteed to earn for the rest of your life.As an investor, you have the following choice: Accept the 10 percent rate of return in the center box or be asked to leave the room. The boxes will be shuffled around, and you will have to choose a box, not knowing what return each box holds. You quickly calculate that the average return of the other eight boxes is 10 percent.Thus, if thousands of people played the game and each chose a box, the expected average return would be the same as if they all decided not to play. Of course, some would earn a return of negative 3 percent per annum, while others would earn 23 percent. This is like the world of investing: if you choose an actively managed fund and the market returns 10 percent, you might be lucky and earn as much as 23 percent per annum, or you might be unlucky and lose 3 percent per annum. A rational risk-averse investor should logically decide to “outfox the box” and accept the average (market) return of 10 percent.In all the years Larry has been an investment advisor, whenever he presents this game to an investor, not once has an investor chosen to play. Everyone decides to accept par or 10 percent. While they might be willing to spend a dollar on a lottery ticket, they become more prudent in their choice when it comes to investing their life's savings.Active investing is a loser's gameActive investing is a game with low odds of success that many would consider a losing battle. It's a game that, when compared to the ‘outfoxing the box' game, seems like a futile endeavor. Larry's advice is to avoid this game altogether.In the “outfoxing the box” game, the average return of all choices was the same 10 percent as the 10 percent that would have been earned by choosing not to play. And 50 percent of those choosing to play would be expected to...

When you invest in a business, do you really know who's pulling the strings? Are you aware of the leadership team and how their choices could significantly influence the outcome of your investment? Take Formula 1, for example. Owned by Liberty Media Corporation, it stands out as a rare opportunity for sports fans to invest in the sporting world. But is it a wise addition to your portfolio? Phil and Danielle explore the increasing popularity of Formula One and discuss the factors that could make stocks like this a good fit for your investment strategy. They break down the first step of their investment approach, using Formula One's background as a case study to demonstrate why it's essential to fully understand the business behind any stock before making a purchase. If you want a greater degree of certainty with your next investment, download The Four Ms for Successful Investing for help finding the right business at the right price: https://bit.ly/3LhVUAR Topics Discussed: Warren Buffett's investing strategies Value investing Real-life investing Investing in Trusted Management Formula 1 Stock Resources Discussed: The Innovation Stack Bill Ackman's 8 Principles Phil's Go-To Investing Checklist Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Tom McCullough, Chairman and CEO of Northwood Family Office stops by to talk all things Family Office.Tom is often referred to as the "godfather" of family offices in Canada. He shares his journey from a successful career at Dominion Securities to founding Northwood Family Office, where he has spent over two decades helping families manage their wealth and complex financial needs. The discussion covers the evolution of the family office industry, the importance of building trust with clients, and Tom's insights into intergenerational wealth transfer and the growing complexity of wealth management in today's world.We also are joined by friend-of-the-pod John Ruffolo of Maverix Private Equity to discuss the week's news (including Ripple's recent Fund III announcement)About Tom McCulloughTom McCullough is the Co-Founder, Chairman, and CEO of Northwood Family Office, a Toronto-based multi-family office that serves the comprehensive needs of families with significant wealth. Tom has been a pioneering force in establishing one of Canada's leading independent family offices. Northwood Family Office has been consistently recognized as the top independent family office in Canada by Euromoney in its global private banking survey. Tom is also the co-author of three influential books on wealth management: Wealth of Wisdom: The Top 50 Questions Wealthy Families Ask, Wealth of Wisdom: Top Practices for Wealthy Families and Their Advisors, and Family Wealth Management: 7 Imperatives for Successful Investing.Before founding Northwood Family Office in 2002, Tom spent two decades at RBC Dominion Securities, where he held senior executive roles. His experience at RBC, combined with his personal insights into the needs of wealthy families, led him to establish a boutique-style, client-focused family office that provides objective and customized services. Tom's commitment to education and thought leadership in wealth management is evident through his role as an Adjunct Professor of Finance at the University of Toronto's Rotman School of Management, where he teaches an MBA course on the management of private wealth. He is also actively involved with the Ultra High Net Worth Institute, serving on its board and faculty.Tom's contributions to the field have been widely recognized, including being awarded ‘Best Individual Contribution to Thought Leadership in the Wealth Management Industry (North America)' at the 2020 Family Wealth Report Awards. He holds an MBA from York University's Schulich School of Business and certifications such as the Chartered Investment Manager (CIM) and Certified International Wealth Manager (CIWM). In addition to his professional endeavors, Tom is actively involved in philanthropic activities, particularly focusing on poverty alleviation in the developing world.In this episode, we discuss:(00:57) Announcement of the third fund from Ripple Ventures and promotion within the team(02:50) The saga of Bolt and its founder Ryan Breslow(07:00) Stripe's new buyback tender offer and its implications(09:07) Canadian government consultations on the 2024 federal budget(13:00) The U.S. Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decisions and economic impact(17:30) 20VC podcast insights with Aiden Gomez from Cohere—(22:34) The interview with Tom McCullough(23:00) Starting out at Dominion Securities and the early days of his career(24:00) The epiphanies that led him to leave Dominion Securities and start a family office(25:20) The early challenges of the family office business(26:08) What is a family office and how it serves high-net-worth families(28:09) The story behind landing his first client(30:01) The changing landscape of family offices in Canada.(32:31) What sets Northwood Family Office apart from bank-run family offices.(36:00) The most common questions wealthy families ask and how Northwood addresses them(41:19) Balancing professional advice with personal relationships in family office management(43:56) The seven imperatives for successful investing in the new world order(46:50) Teaching and thought leadership in wealth management and family office services(48:45) Practical tools and exercises from Tom's new book, Wealth of Wisdom(52:10) How families can maintain transparency and communication across generations(55:15) The evolving role of family offices in managing global wealth and complexity.(58:00) The impact of technology on wealth management and family offices.(1:04:38) The most rewarding aspects of Tom's career in wealth management.(1:08:02) Advice for those looking to start their own family office or wealth management firm.Fast Favorites:

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 11: The Demon of Chance.LEARNING: Don't always attribute skill to success, sometimes it could be just luck. “Just because there is a correlation doesn't mean causation. You must be careful not to attribute skill and not luck to success.”Larry Swedroe In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry's Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 11: The Demon of Chance.Chapter 11: The Demon of ChanceIn this chapter, Larry discusses why investors confuse skill with what he calls “the demon of luck,” a term he uses to describe the random and unpredictable nature of market outcomes.Larry cautions that before concluding that because an investment strategy worked in the past, it will work in the future, investors should be aware of the uncertainty and ask if there is a rational explanation for the correlation between the outcome and strategy.According to Larry, the assumption is that while short-term outperformance might be a matter of luck, long-term outperformance must be evidence of skill. However, a basic knowledge of statistics is crucial in understanding that with thousands of money managers playing the game, the odds are that a few, not just one, will produce a long-term performance record.Today, there are more mutual funds than there are stocks. With so many active managers trying to win, statistical theory shows that it's expected that some will likely outperform the market. However, beating the market is a zero-sum game before expenses since someone must own all stocks. And, if some group of active managers outperforms the market, there must be another group that underperforms. Therefore, the odds of any specific active manager being successful are, at best, 50/50 (before considering the burden of higher expenses active managers must overcome to outperform a benchmark index fund).Skill or “the demon of luck?From probability, it's expected that randomly, half the active managers would outperform in any one year, about one in four to outperform two years in a row, and one in eight to do so three years in a row. Fund managers who outperform for even three years in a row are often declared to be gurus by the financial media. But are they gurus, or is it just luck? According to Larry, it is hard to tell the difference between the two. Without this knowledge of statistics investors are likely to confuse skill with “the demon of luck.”Bill Miller, the Legg Mason Value Trust manager, was acclaimed as the next Peter Lynch. He managed to do what no current manager has done—beat the S&P 500 Index 15 years in a row (1991–2005). Indeed, that could be luck. You can't rely on that performance as a predictor of future greatness. Larry turns to academic...

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 10: When Even the Best Aren't Likely to Win the Game.LEARNING: Refrain from the futile pursuit of trying to beat the market. “Only play the game of active management if you can truly identify an advantage you have, like inside information, but you have to be careful because it's illegal to trade on it. Also, play only if you place a very high value on the entertainment.”Larry Swedroe In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry's Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 10: When Even the Best Aren't Likely to Win the Game.Chapter 10: When Even the Best Aren't Likely to Win the GameIn this chapter, Larry illustrates why individual investors should refrain from the futile pursuit of trying to beat the market.It seems logical to believe that if anyone could beat the market, it would be the pension plans of the largest U.S. companies. Larry lists a few reasons this is a reasonable assumption:These pension plans control large sums of money. They have access to the best and brightest portfolio managers, each clamoring to manage the billions of dollars in these plans (and earn hefty fees). Pension plans can also invest with managers that most individuals don't have access to because they don't have sufficient assets to meet the minimums of these superstar managers.Pension plans always hire managers with a track record of outperforming their benchmarks or, at the very least, matching them. Not the ones with a record of underperformance.Additionally, pension plans will always choose the manager who makes an excellent presentation, explaining why they succeeded and would continue to succeed.Many, if not the majority, of these pension plans hire professional consultants such as Frank Russell, SEI, and Goldman Sachs to help them perform due diligence in interviewing, screening, and ultimately selecting the very best of the best. These consultants have considered every conceivable screen to find the best fund managers, such as performance records, management tenure, depth of staff, consistency of performance (to make sure that a long-term record is not the result of one or two lucky years), performance in bear markets, consistency of implementation of strategy, turnover, costs, etc. It is unlikely that there is something that you or your financial advisor would think of that they had not already considered.As individuals, we rarely have the luxury of personally interviewing money managers and performing as thorough a due diligence as these consultants. We generally do not have professionals helping us avoid mistakes in the process.The fees they pay for active management are typically lower than the fees individual investors...

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 09: The Fed Model and the Money Illusion.LEARNING: Just because there is a correlation doesn't mean that there's causation. “Just because there is a correlation doesn't mean that there's causation. The mere existence of a correlation doesn't necessarily give it predictive value.”Larry Swedroe In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry's Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 09: The Fed Model and the Money Illusion.Chapter 09: The Fed Model and the Money IllusionIn this chapter, Larry illustrates why the Fed Model should not be used to determine whether the market is at fair value and that the E/P ratio is a much better predictor of future real returns.The FED modelThe stock and bond markets are filled with wrongheaded data mining. David Leinweber of First Quadrant famously illustrated this point with what he called “stupid data miner tricks.”Leinweber sifted through a United Nations CD-ROM and discovered the single best predictor of the S&P 500 Index had been butter production in Bangladesh. His example perfectly illustrates that a correlation's mere existence doesn't necessarily give it predictive value. Some logical reason for the correlation is required for it to have credibility. Without a logical reason, the correlation is just a mere illusion.According to Larry, the “money illusion” has the potential to create investment mistakes. It relates to one of the most popular indicators used by investors to determine whether the market is under or overvalued—what is known as “the Fed Model.”The Federal Reserve was using the Fed model to determine if the market was fairly valued and how attractive stocks were priced relative to bonds. Using the “logic” that bonds and stocks are competing instruments, the model uses the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond to calculate “fair value,” comparing that rate to the earnings-price, or E/P, ratio (the inverse of the popular price-to-earnings, or P/E, ratio).Larry points out two major problems with the Fed Model. The first relates to how the model is used by many investors. Edward Yardeni, at the time a market strategist for Morgan, Grenfell & Co. speculated that the Federal Reserve used the model to compare the valuation of stocks relative to bonds as competing instruments.The model says nothing about absolute expected returns. Thus, stocks, using the Fed Model, might be priced under fair value relative to bonds, and they can have either high or low expected returns. The expected return of stocks is not determined by their relative value to bonds.Instead, the expected real return is determined by the current dividend yield plus the expected real growth in dividends. To get the...

Aswath Damodaran, Professor of Finance at NYU Stern and a leading expert on valuation and corporate finance joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a fascinating and thought-provoking discussion on current markets and investing in general. They explore why Aswath believes we have witnessed the death of old-school value investing and how structural shifts in the economy have fundamentally altered the investing landscape. The discussion delves into the valuation of Nvidia and the Mag 7, questioning whether the hype around AI is justified. Aswath outlines his approach for long-term valuation, explains how he estimates the equity risk premium, and discusses what the current equity risk premium suggests for long-term equity market returns. They also cover the importance of bond yields for valuation, the shortcomings of P/E as a valuation measure, and whether assets without cash flows, like gold and crypto, can be valued. The episode wraps up with Aswath's advice for becoming a better investor and preparing for an AI-driven future.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Aswath on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:18 - Introduction to Aswath Damodaran03:30 - Nvidia - bullish or bearish?04:47 - How AI will impact the economy10:48 - How to make better valuations in AI and technology stocks14:36 - How to distinguish AI stocks from each other17:58 - A sticky market22:40 -

Many real estate investors dream of quitting their jobs to do deals full time. And while that's a great thing for many, that might not be your reality (yet). Maybe you don't even want to invest full time and would rather keep your REI business a side hustle. If you'd rather keep your investing business a side hustle or if it's just not realistic to quit your job, you'll love this episode. Today, you'll hear from Ryan Substand, who runs an investing business while also working a full time job. It's possible to be a successful investor, even if you're working 9-5. If you're ready to get the success you know you can have, listen now! Show highlights include:  How Ryan balances family life, investing and his full time job (and the only thing he doesn't compromise on). (10:11) Where Ryan gets his work done—this sounds insignificant, but is a giant productivity secret. (12:02) How to get leads and deals with direct mail in 2020–plus exactly how often to send your letters and what channels to combine them with. (19:03) How to become your market's go-to investor by using “multichannel marketing”. (21:05) To get the latest updates directly from Dan and discuss business with other real estate investors, join the REI marketing nerds Facebook group here: http://adwordsnerds.com/group Need help with your online marketing? Jump on a FREE strategy session with our team. We'll dive deep into your market and help you build a custom strategy for finding motivated seller leads online. Schedule for free here: http://adwordsnerds.com/strategy Find out more about Ryan here: https://www.northwestpropertysolutions.com/

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 08: Be Careful What You Ask For.LEARNING: High growth rates don't always mean high stock returns. “Emerging markets are very much like the rest of the world's capital markets—they do an excellent job of reflecting economic growth prospects into stock prices.”Larry Swedroe In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry's Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 08: Be Careful What You Ask For.Chapter 08: Be Careful What You Ask ForIn this chapter, Larry cautions people to be careful what they wish for in investing. He emphasizes the daunting challenge of active management, a path many choose in the belief that they can accurately forecast market trends.However, as Larry points out, the reality is far from this ideal. The unpredictability of the market makes it almost impossible to predict with 100% accuracy, a fact that investors should be acutely aware of.High growth rates don't always mean high stock returnsIt's important to note that high growth rates don't always translate into high stock returns, underscoring the unpredictability of market outcomes. According to Larry, for today's investors, the equivalent of the “Midas touch” (the king who turned everything he touched into gold) might be the ability to forecast economic growth rates.If investors could forecast with 100% certainty which countries would have the highest growth rates, they could invest in them and avoid those with low growth rates. This would lead to abnormal profits—or, perhaps not.Nobody can predict with that accuracy. Even if one could make such a prediction, they may still not make the profits they think they will. This is because, as Larry explains, experts have found that there has been a slightly negative correlation between country growth rates and stock returns.A 2006 study on emerging markets by Jim Davis of Dimensional Fund Advisors found that the high-growth countries from 1990 to 2005 returned 16.4%, and the low-growth countries returned the same 16.4%.Such evidence has led Larry to conclude that it doesn't matter if you can even forecast which countries will have high growth rates; the market will make the same forecast and adjust stock prices accordingly.Therefore, to beat the market, you must be able to forecast better than the market already expects, and to do so, you need to gather information at a cost. In other words, you can't just be smarter than the market; you have to be smarter than the market enough to overcome all your expenses of gathering information and trading costs.Larry emphasizes that emerging markets are very much like the rest of the world's capital markets—they do an excellent job of reflecting economic growth...

The Olympics give us a chance to watch world-class athletes, whose precisely planned training programs are four years in the making, go for gold. While more long-term, the strategies used by successful investors are strikingly similar. On this Dentist Money Show, Ryan, Matt, and Victoria look at the individual traits and habits that both gold medal athletes and savvy investors share. Book a free consultation with a CFP® advisor who only works with dentists. Get an objective financial assessment and learn how Dentist Advisors can help you live your rich life.  

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 07: The Value of Security Analysis.LEARNING: Smart investors, like smart businesspeople, care about results, not efforts. “Smart investors, like smart businesspeople, care about results, not efforts. That is why “smart money” invests in “passively managed,” structured portfolios that invest systematically in a transparent and replicable manner.”Larry Swedroe In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over the 30 years to help investors as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners. You can learn more about Larry's Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 07: The Value of Security Analysis.Chapter 07: The Value of Security AnalysisIn this chapter, Larry explains how to test the efficiency of the market by looking at how good security analysts are at predicting the future. If they can outsmart the markets, then the markets are not efficient.Do investors who follow security analysts's recommendations outperform the market?In business, results are what matters— not effort. The same is true in investing because we cannot spend efforts, only results. The basic premise of active management is that, through their efforts, security analysts can identify and recommend undervalued stocks and avoid overvalued ones. As a result, investors who follow their recommendations will outperform the market. Is this premise myth or reality?To answer this question, Larry relies on the robust findings of academic research in the paper Analysts and Anomalies. The authors meticulously examined the recommendations of U.S. security analysts over the period 1994 through 2017. Their findings debunk the myth of analysts' infallibility and shed light on the surprising ways analysts' predictions conflict with well-documented anomalies. They also found that buy recommendations did not predict returns, though sell recommendations did predict lower returns. Another intriguing finding was that among the group of "market" anomalies (such as momentum and idiosyncratic risk), which are based only on stock returns, price, and volume data, analysts produce more favorable recommendations and forecast higher returns among the stocks that are stronger buys according to market anomalies. This is perhaps surprising, as analysts are supposed to be experts in firms' fundamentals. Yet, they performed best with anomalies not based on accounting data.The evidence in this academic paper suggests that analysts even contribute to mispricing, as their recommendations are systematically biased by favoring overvalued stocks according to anomaly-based composite mispricing scores. The authors concluded: "Analysts today are still overlooking a good deal of valuable, anomaly-related...

On today's episode, Kyle Grieve chats with Ian Cassel about the art of success in the private investing world, key investing skills to help manage stress, simple methods for finding new investing ideas, consolidating your stock buying framework, the challenges that must be overcome to hold a stock successfully, when they sell a stock, how to develop perseverance like a legendary investor, and a whole lot more! Ian had a long history as a full-time private investor of microcaps. He then transitioned to become the founder of Intelligent Fanatics Capital Management. He is the founder of MicroCapClub.com and co-founder of IntelligentFanatics.com. He's co-authored two books on Intelligent Fanatics. IN THIS EPISODE YOU'LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 02:15 - The stresses that must be overcome with being a private investor. 05:18 - Why you shouldn't project performance through a bull market with performance going forward (good performance through a bull market is unlikely to remain the same over a full cycle). 12:20 - How to think about survival with your portfolio through brutal bear markets. 17:11 - A sneak peek into Ian's framework for the skills of investing that are required for outperformance. 23:49 - How to build the skill of identifying stock ideas and Ian's five favorite ways. 28:53 - The power of thinking about the downside before thinking of the upside in investing. 36:21 - Why you can pay double your initial price for a business with increasing earnings power and get a better deal at a higher price. 42:50 - The potential weaknesses of coffee canning and why it does not work on every investment. 46:38 - The four reasons for selling a stock. 1:03:51 - How to deal with biases with being a long-only investor. Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. Read the MicroCapClub Blog and sign up for the newsletter here. Join the MicroCapClub here. Follow Kyle on Twitter and LinkedIn. Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our Premium Feed. NEW TO THE SHOW? Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok. Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: River Toyota Range Rover Briggs & Riley American Express The Bitcoin Way Public Onramp USPS SimpleMining Sound Advisory Shopify AT&T BAM Capital HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts! It takes less than 30 seconds, and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 06: Market Efficiency and the Case of Pete Rose.LEARNING: Don't try to pick stocks or time the market. “The evidence is very clear. The stocks retail investors buy underperform after they buy them, and the stocks they sell go on to outperform at face value.”Larry Swedroe In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over the 30 years or so that he's been trying to help investors. Larry is the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners. You can learn more about Larry's Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 06: Market Efficiency and the Case of Pete Rose.Chapter 06: Market Efficiency and the Case of Pete RoseMany people have difficulty understanding why smart investors working hard cannot gain an advantage over average investors who simply accept market returns. In this chapter, Larry uses an analogy in the world of sports betting to explain why the “collective wisdom of the market” is a difficult competitor.The case of Pete RosePete Rose was one of the greatest players in the history of baseball, finishing his career with more hits than any other player. It seems logical that Rose would have a significant advantage over other bettors.Rose had 24 years of experience as a player and four years as a manager. In addition to having inside information on his own team, as a manager, he also studied the teams he competed against. Yet, despite these advantages, Rose lost $4,200 betting on his own team, $36,000 betting on other teams in the National League, and $7,000 betting on American League games.This reveals that if an expert like Rose, who had access to private information, could not “beat the market,” then it's very unlikely that ordinary individuals without similar knowledge would be able to do so.Sports betting market efficiencyLarry shares other examples of the efficiency of sports betting markets. One such example is a study covering six NBA seasons in which Professor Raymond Sauer found that the average difference between point spreads and actual point differences was astonishingly low—less than one-quarter of one point.In horse racing, the final odds, which reflect the judgment of all bettors, reliably predict the outcome—the favorite wins most often, the second favorite is next most likely to win, and so on. This predictability of the market further emphasizes the futility of trying to exploit mispricings and the need for a more reliable investment strategy.Larry goes on to quote James Surowiecki, author of “The Wisdom of Crowds,” who demonstrated that as long as people

When it comes to DIY investing, there's always a temptation to make things more complicated than they need to be. But, in reality, embracing simplicity is one of the best ways to ensure good investment outcomes. Today's episode features an exceptional conversation with our long-time friend and colleague, Dan Bortolotti, who has worked alongside us as an Portfolio Manager at PWL Capital for over ten years. Some of our Canadian listeners might recognize Dan as the man behind the Canadian Couch Potato blog (one of the most popular resources for Canadian investors) and the voice behind the Canadian Couch Potato podcast. Dan is a consummate communicator, both on paper and in person; beyond his extensive blogging, he has also written a number of books, both fiction and non-fiction, the most recent of which includes Reboot Your Portfolio: 9 Steps to Successful Investing with ETFs. Dan has played a pivotal role in making PWL Capital what it is today, and in this episode, we learn about his surprising journey to becoming an advisor, before hearing his wide-ranging insights on DIY investing. Dan breaks down key components for investors, from how to approach your asset allocation and picking index funds to navigating fees, taxes, and performance. We also discuss how the investing landscape has changed since Dan started writing and essential lessons he has learned over the years. To hear all about investing from the Canadian Couch Potato himself, be sure to tune in for this expansive conversation!   Key Points From This Episode:   (0:03:52) The origin story of the Canadian Couch Potato blog, by Dan Bortolotti. (0:08:17) How the availability of index funds in Canada has changed since Dan started writing about them in 2010, and his role in the index fund revolution. (0:10:01) Why Canadians have been slower to adopt index funds than Americans. (0:12:09) How the model portfolios on his site have changed over time. (0:14:20) Why simplicity is so important to a good investment outcome. (0:16:38) The biggest obstacle Dan has observed when it comes to successful investing. (0:19:40) Advice on how to approach decisions around stocks, bonds, and asset allocation. (0:24:34) How to select the ideal ETF or index fund to express your asset allocation. (0:27:22) Some of the ways that Dan's views have changed since starting the Couch Potato portfolio, and the evolution of his blog. (0:31:46) Why you should be clear on your financial goals before investing and the importance of saving rate relative to fees and performance. (0:37:32) Understanding the value of financial advice if we consider investing to be effectively solved by low-cost ETF mutual funds. (0:40:23) Why it's so important to close the gap between providing a financial plan and implementing it. (0:43:25) What surprised Dan about his clients during his transition from blogger to advisor, and what he has learned about earning his clients's trust. (0:48:22) Dan's thoughts on how people should make the decision between DIY investing or hiring an advisor, and what people should look for in a financial advisor. (0:55:46) The story of how Dan connected with PWL Capital and the key ways he has helped shape the company.   Links From Today's Episode: Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — info@rationalreminder.caBenjamin Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/  Benjamin on X — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/cameron-passmore/ Cameron on X — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Dan Bortolotti — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/dan-bortolotti/ Dan Bortolotti on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-bortolotti-8a482310/ Canadian Couch Potato Blog — https://canadiancouchpotato.com/ Canadian Couch Potato Podcast — https://canadiancouchpotato.com/podcast/ Larry Swedroe on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/larry-swedroe-18778267/ Larry Swedroe books on Amazon — https://www.amazon.com/Larry-E-Swedroe-Books/s?k=Larry+E.+Swedroe&rh=n%3A283155   Books From Today's Episode:   Reboot Your Portfolio: 9 Steps to Successful Investing with ETFs — https://www.amazon.ca/Reboot-Your-Portfolio-Successful-Investing/dp/1988344328 Wild Blue — https://www.amazon.com/Wild-Blue-Natural-History-Largest-ebook/dp/B005BP0E3W

Discover all of the podcasts in our network, search for specific episodes, get the Optimal Living Daily workbook, and learn more at: OLDPodcast.com. Episode 2582: Explore financial independence through simple, practical advice in J.D. Roth's discussion of Burton Malkiel's The Random Walk Guide to Investing. Roth distills a lifetime of investment wisdom into ten straightforward rules, emphasizing the importance of patience, discipline, and the power of compound interest. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just starting out, this episode offers invaluable insights into building wealth and securing your financial future. Read along with the original article(s) here: https://www.getrichslowly.org/the-random-walk-guide-to-investing-ten-rules-for-financial-success/ Quotes to ponder: "The advice in this book is both simple and realistic. There is no magic potion in the investment world because the truth is that one doesn't exist." "Paying off credit card debt is the best investment you will ever make." "The secret to getting rich slowly (but surely) is the miracle of compound interest." Episode references: A Random Walk Down Wall Street: The Time-Tested Strategy for Successful Investing: https://www.amazon.com/Random-Walk-Down-Wall-Street/dp/0393330338 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

InvestED Episode #467: More Ulta Issues As investors the world over grapple with the rapidly changing financial landscape, where ETFs, meme stocks, and cryptocurrencies are all carving out their own space in a well-established ecosystem, how do value investors gauge the future of a business? While some might see these changes as a massive disruption to the market at large, there are others who, from a Buffett perspective, see the same cycle of boom/bust/reset playing out as it's done so many times in the past. This week, Phil and Danielle continue from their jumping off point of the cosmetics industry to tell us why the difference between growth and value stocks isn't nearly as significant as establishing the value of the business in order to plan for the future. For some great tips on what to do (and what not to do) when building your value investing portfolio, click here for your free copy of 10 Do's and Don'ts of Successful Investing:  https://bit.ly/3XyEDbD Topics Discussed: P/E ratio Wall Street vs value investing future outlook Growth stocks Intrinsic value ETFs Resources Discussed: The Weather Matrix Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices