Something is rotten in the state of the internet. Social networks that were once meant to be entertaining diversions have become riven with vituperative political combat that leaves all but the most blinkered acolytes running for the safety of a funny YouTube channel. Bots swarm through the discourse, as do trolls and other bad actors. How did we let such a crucial communications medium become enshittified and can we build something else in its stead?Joining host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner is Renée DiResta. She is a leader in the field of internet research and is currently an Associate Research Professor at the McCourt School of Public Policy at Georgetown. She's written recently on the surges of users migrating from one internet platform to another, as well as on the future of social platforms in the age of personal agentic AI.Today, the three of us talk about how social networks like X, Reddit, Bluesky and Mastodon are each taking new approaches to mitigate some of the dark patterns we have seen in the past from social media. We then talk about how the metaphor of gardening is useful in the course of improving the internet, and finally, how private messaging spaces are increasingly the default for authentic communication.Produced by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko

The markets have massively gyrated the past few weeks as hourly pronouncements from the White House and Mar-a-Lago seize investors with terror or relieve them of stress. At the heart of the vociferous debate around tariffs and trade is nothing less than the future economy of the United States. What should be built here? What should we outsource? Who pays for that new economic structure?Joining host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner is Josh Zoffer. Josh was formerly special assistant to President Biden for economic policy, and today, he's a principal at Clocktower Ventures. He's penned a number of recent op-eds on trade policy and global interconnectedness (as well as one on the rise of metaverses).The three talk about all of the news this past week around tariffs, what kind of manufacturing we want in America, why globalization remains critical, the challenges of administrability, workforce development and finally, why it is so hard for governments to take on high-risk investing in emerging technologies.Produced by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko

With the launch of President Trump's trade war this week, few countries are more at risk than China. Faced with a sudden and massive expansion of tariffs as well as changes to the de minimis parcel rule, the export-led development model that has led China to great wealth is now under serious threat. What should we learn from the past of U.S.-China relations in order to understand their future?Joining host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner are Neil Thomas and Kate Logan of the Asia Society Policy Institute. Neil is a fellow and researches the elite politics and political economy of China, while Kate is director of the China Climate Hub and Climate Diplomacy. They have written extensively on China's industrial strategy and foreign relations, and even more notably, they both participated in the launch of our Chinese electric vehicle Riskgaming scenario Powering Up in Washington DC back in December.We talk about their experiences playing the game, and why processing information overload is a crucial skill, particularly in competitive markets like cleantech. Then we talk about the lessons of China's manufacturing rise, why America ignored its industrial strategy for so long, and how U.S. policymakers and business leaders can approach the future of the most critical trade relationship in the world.

Chaos is the rule of the day, with markets, companies, governments and individuals being rapidly buffeted by events and change. Technology is exacerbating that chaos by offering asymmetric leverage to more people. On the positive side, technologies like AI and drones can drastically improve the productivity of workers and artists to perform their craft, benefiting us all. But there is a dark side as well: extremists are early adopters of new technologies that afford them the ability to maximize their evil objectives. With so much change in the world, how can we grapple with this new era of asymmetry?Joining host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner is Colin P. Clarke, the director of research at The Soufan Group and formerly a long-time terrorism analyst at RAND. He has spent years studying terrorist organizations and their thirst for new technologies and new means of financing their activities. His new book on Evgeny Prigozhin and the rise of The Wagner Group will be out later this year. The three talk about how new technologies are changing the threat landscape from terrorism, the changing contours of the so-called crime-terror nexus, why China is increasingly the focus of analysis, and how governments are responding to the increasing leverage of terrorists throughout the world.

Despite centuries of experience designing and playing war games, there is still very little rigorous research on how to evaluate what makes a good game. What's the design goal? How much should (or even can) a game reflect reality? Are tighter or looser rules more likely to lead to productive learning? Is having fun important? That lack of rigorous analysis has historically stymied the wargaming profession, but a new generation of researchers want to push the field forward.Today, with both Danny Crichton and Laurence Pevsner on vacation, we bring back our independent Riskgaming designer Ian Curtiss to host David Banks. David is senior lecturer in wargaming at the Department of War Studies at King's College London, where his research focuses on the empirical evaluation of war games and how the craft can evolve in the years ahead. He is also the academic director of the King's Wargaming Network.Ian and David discuss the antecedents of wargaming, firming up the foundations of the field, why realism isn't as useful a metric as engagement, why balancing play and realism is so challenging, how to consider internal validity in games and why its important not just to evaluate a game as a whole, but also its constituent parts.Produced by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko

Humans hate uncertainty, which means we are constantly looking for means to narrowly consider the future and its implications. Planning, predicting and debating what's next may be the mainstay of any organization in the world, but organizations rarely want to confront upcoming existential challenges or radical shifts in strategy. That's where foresight psychology comes in, with the goal of unearthing our avoidance of tough questions and finding ways to overcome them.With Danny Crichton and Laurence Pevsner out on holiday, this is a special episode bringing together our independent Riskgaming designer Ian Curtiss and his friend Graham Norris. Norris has a doctorate in organizational psychology and for the past decade, has consulted with all kinds of businesses around the world on his theories of foresight psychology.Ian and Graham discuss what makes us blind to the future, why psychologists have not been heavily represented in futurism, the difference between individual and organizational approaches to foresight, and why scenario thinking is an important approach to understanding challenges.

AI and democracy are in great tension with each other. AI models are built by a priesthood of research specialists, unmoored from the will of the public. Yet, these very models are increasingly running important parts of the economy and increasingly government. How do we take advantage of these new capabilities without losing control of them?That's the debate at the center of our conversation today with Gideon Lichfield, the writer behind the Substack “Futurepolis” and the former editor-in-chief of Wired. Through his recent writings, Gideon has explored what a public option might look like with AI, how participatory democracy can be buttressed by new organizational and technical designs, and the tactical changes needed to make it much easier for government to procure software.Joined by host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner, we first talk about Gideon's two recent experiences playing our scenarios on the Chinese electric vehicle market and AI deepfakes. Then we pivot to a broader conversation on the future of governance, discussing everything from participatory budgeting and liquid democracy to balancing between technocracy and democracy while remaining optimistic about the future.Produced by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Georg Ko

Amidst the upheaval in Washington, D.C. these days, one of the most notable and controversial decision from the second Trump administration has been the dismantling and closure of the United States Agency for International Development (or U.S.A.I.D.). In addition to funding humanitarian response and global public health initiatives (most notably with HIV/AIDS), the agency has prioritized governance programs all throughput the world. Traditionally, self-interest alone has proven sufficient for helping America's current and future allies alike.That's no longer the case, according to Maany Peyvan, the former senior director of communications and policy at the agency under the Biden administration. He argues that instead of self-interest, we need to recast efforts to help other countries through the lens of charity, emphasizing America's long-standing leadership as one of the most charitable nations in the world when public and private giving are added together.We talk about the plight of U.S.A.I.D., what's happening with the staff, why self-interest no longer has the same purchase over debates on foreign relations as it once did, how technologies like artificial intelligence are transforming aid work, and why grants and finance work side-by-side in helping countries succeed.

There are two sides of America. One is the country's world-leading innovation centers, which offer the highest salaries and potential wealth creation anywhere in the world. The other is the bleak deindustrialized hinterlands where former mines and factories once dotted the landscape. Here, middle class jobs have been casualized or wiped out entirely, leaving behind a depressing and well-trodden tale of economic loss.Joining host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner is Michael Beckley, a professor at Tufts University and the author of the recent essay, “The Strange Triumph of a Broken America.” He argues that the decentralized institutions that make America strong are also precisely its most vulnerable feature. Creative destruction is extremely useful in fast-moving fields like software, but is anathema to building an industrial base where capital assets are key. How can America balance between the two without losing both?We talk about the vagaries of America's domestic and foreign policies, how to balance decentralization with creating pathways toward greater prosperity, whether America is returning to isolationism and finally, what we can do with left behind regions to return them to prominence and success.Produced by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko

Cruel, petty and occasionally magnanimous, fates rule our lives, determining everything from our careers and romances to our financial success. Despite a burgeoning academic literature studying luck and the occasional theoretical probabilist complaining about Bayesian statistics, we haven't brought the chance of chaotic complex systems into the classroom, and that's particularly true in political science and international relations. That should change, and play-based learning offer new forms of education for future generations.Joining host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner is Nicholas Rush Smith, director of the Master's Program in International Affairs at The City College of New York and its Graduate Center. His students graduate into plum assignments across international organizations like the United Nations, and he has been increasingly utilizing simulations and experiential learning to transform how future international civil servants learn their craft.We talk about Nick's recent experience playing “Powering Up,” our Riskgaming scenario focused on China's electric vehicle market. Then we talk about the power of play, how dopamine affects the learning cycle, why losing is the best education for winning, David Graeber's ideas around the balance between rules and play, and finally, how play-based learning can teach principles used in even the most bureaucratic institutions like the United Nations and the U.S. Army.Produced by ⁠⁠⁠⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠⁠⁠Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko

When Russia launched its war on Ukraine in early 2022, it became the first land battle on European soil since World War II. Warfare has changed dramatically since then — from first-person view drones to AI-mediated strategic communications, as well as intelligence gathering and operations — and yet, critical continuities remain between Russia's present and past strategies and tactics. To learn more, Riskgaming host Danny Crichton interviewed Daniela Richterova, who is Senior Lecturer in Intelligence Studies at the Department of War Studies, King's College London. She has been researching the history and contemporary practices of Russia's overseas intelligence missions and recently co-authored a paper on how Russia is using a gig-economy model to hire agent-saboteurs in the field, sometimes for as little as a few hundred dollars. This new operational model has allowed Russia to dramatically scale up its attacks on infrastructure and other high-priority targets at minimal cost despite overseas sanctions. Daniela discusses the continuities in doctrine between the KGB and today's Russian FSB, how agent training has evolved over the decades, why the gig economy has been so effective for Russia, what Russia seeks to target and why, and finally, the risk calculus and cultural differences between Russian political and espionage leaders and those of other nations.

There's a growing movement to apply the best practices of technology to the U.S. government. Whether it's Elon Musk and DOGE (the so-called Department of Government Efficiency) or the myriad of chief technology and data officers across all levels of government, the hope is that technology can enhance productivity and minimize errors, offering a better experience with government for all Americans. Few people have the wealth of experience on this front than our guest today, Christine Keung. She has a tech industry background from Dropbox and her current role as a partner at J2 Ventures, but also a lengthy tenure across party lines, from working in China with Ambassador Max Baucus, to becoming the Chief Data Officer of San Jose, California, to helping launch the Paycheck Protection Program at the Small Business Administration. Alongside host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming Director of Programming Laurence Pevsner, we talk about her recent experience playing Powering Up — our Riskgaming scenario on the Chinese electric vehicle market — her experiences in government and the challenges of modernization, and then finally, we turn to DeepSeek and the U.S.-China competition that has splashed across the front pages the past week. Produced by ⁠⁠⁠Chris Gates⁠⁠⁠ Music by ⁠⁠⁠George Ko

It's been a bad few months (and years and decades) for the global commons. Chinese trawlers have repeatedly knocked out internet cables in international waters. Outer space is being militarized by Russia and others, threatening the demilitarized posture adopted by the Outer Space Treaty. Chinese hackers are using cyber weapons to infiltrate the U.S. Treasury through the Salt Typhoon hacks, while Antarctica is being explored by multiple militaries in contravention of the peace proposed in the the Antarctic Treaty. Then there's the decline of the information commons, where paywalls increasingly move critical news and data out of reach of citizens. In short, the global commons is losing primacy. Friend of the podcast Scott Bade highlighted this theme for geopolitical strategy firm Eurasia Group's annual Top Risks report, and we decided to follow up with our own Riskgaming conversation. So Danny Crichton and Laurence Pevsner teamed up to talk through the global commons and what's endangering it. We discuss the privatization and securitization of the commons, how post-World War II institutions are buckling under new pressures from rising powers, why technology is both helping and hurting, and finally, what America can do as a nation to stay open under threat. Produced by ⁠⁠Chris Gates⁠⁠ Music by ⁠⁠George Ko

The Washington Consensus of the past few decades that called for open markets, free trade and reduced regulation will officially die on Monday as Trump re-takes the presidency with a radically different economic program. Free trade is out and tariffs are in; globalization is dead and national sovereignty is the rule of the day. Such a change has massive implications for companies all around the world, many of whom have designed their corporate strategies for a global world. Who is affected, particularly when it comes to U.S.-China relations in the years ahead? That's where Isaac Stone Fish comes in. He's the CEO and founder of Strategy Risks, a data and research company that helps companies and regulators understand and reduce alternative forms of risk. He's particularly noted for his China expertise, and his firm publishes the SR250 ranking, which highlights the largest American companies with the deepest ties with China, encompassing everything from financing and supply-chain interlinkages to public communications. Fish joins host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner to talk about Trump's imminent arrival, why Ford is the most China-entwined company in the U.S., how China overtook the U.S. in electric vehicles, why American defense contractors are surprisingly engaged in China trade, why we might already be at war with China, how CEOs are managing these new strategic risks and finally, what the biotech and social media industries must do going forward in a more fractured world. Produced by ⁠Chris Gates⁠ Music by ⁠George Ko

When we think of booms and busts, we often think of waste. The dot-com bubble, the 2008 financial crisis, and the late 2010s crypto craze drew insane levels of capital into new markets, proceeded to overheat them, and then vaporized everything — leaving a trail of destruction in their wake. Is there a more positive way of looking at these feverish moments of economic activity though, one that accounts for progress? That's the question at the heart of Byrne Hobart and Tobias Huber's new book Boom from Stripe Press. They argue that far from being a destructive force, booms are in fact the critical ingredient needed to induce change in companies, institutions and people. For the low price of the dot-com bubble, we got some of the world's greatest and more valuable companies, whose worth dwarfs the original cost of the bubble by multiples. Progress can be brought forward in time by the exuberance of these heady eras. Host Danny Crichton talks with Byrne and Tobias about what booms are and what they do, how economic progress is triggered through business cycles, the cultural spillovers of periods of change, why we should stop being concerned about the scarcity of capital and how to avoid zero-sum thinking in the economics of growth. Produced by Chris Gates Music by George Ko

It's been a year for the record books, and so it is with the Riskgaming podcast. We published 68 episodes this year across our main show and The Orthogonal Bet sub-series with Sam Arbesman (which we will have more to share next year!). We've had technologists, spies, policymakers, CEOs, authors, artists and all around renaissance wunderkinds on the show this year, and so we wanted to take a step back and highlight the best moments of some of our episodes. With host Danny Crichton narrating, here's the best 11 moments from 2024 as we head into the holidays.

We are really excited to announce the publication of our third and latest Riskgaming scenario, "Powering Up: China's Global Quest for Electric Vehicle Dominance.” Designed by Ian Curtiss over the course of the last year, we started beta trials of the game a few months ago with dozens of playtesters and just hosted launch runthroughs across the United States in NYC, DC and SF as well as a worldwide tour in London, Romania and Tokyo. It was great fun bringing together dozens of policymakers, tech executives and journalists over the past few weeks. While we previewed Powering Up on an episode back in October, now that we have played the game with so many diverse groups, we wanted to talk about some of the lessons learned from its design, the patterns of strategies we've witnessed among players and the wider implications of those strategies for how the world will change in the years ahead. So we gathered together host Danny Crichton, Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner and Ian himself live in our Menlo Park studio to talk about all the results. Come tune in, and then sign up so you can play the next scenario we release in 2025.

Recently in the Riskgaming newsletter (“The Productivity Precipice”), host Danny Crichton wrote about one of the biggest challenges facing America: how many of our industries — and particularly those in construction and building — are becoming some of the least-efficient in the industrialized world. Today's podcast episode identifies yet another problem, and it regards elevators. Elevators aren't just a conveyance of convenience, they are also crucial infrastructure for millions of Americans who struggle with mobility and anyone who has ever carried heavy luggage or groceries in or out of a building. Yet, the cost of America's elevators is often multiple times more expensive than similar elevators in Europe and certainly Asia. Why? That's what we'll discuss today with Stephen Smith, the executive director of the Center for Building, a think tank that studies building codes in global comparative context. His viral op-ed in The New York Times earlier this year has been read by everyone, and he's continuing to do more research on how zoning and building codes collaborate to drive up prices for everyone. We'll talk about that, as well as why America remains so suburban, the insider interests and negotiations that constrain construction efficiency, and why the West Coast is particularly bad for overhead.

Every quarter, Lux sends an update to our limited partners observing the macroeconomic environment, the changes in venture capital, and our current thinking regarding the present and future of science and technology. This time, we focused on “Titanic Lessons,” four classic parables from Greek mythology that elucidate our understanding of the world. Joining host Danny Crichton is letter writer Josh Wolfe, co-founder and managing partner of Lux Capital. Whether it is Prometheus offering fire as a form of “extensionalism” that expands the bounds of human powers, or Atlas taking on the burdens of the world in pursuit of the next intrepid voyage, Josh discusses how new technologies can rapidly augment human potential — but only if they are unlocked and unleashed. Unfortunately, so many of the world's best innovators remain shackled in research labs and corporate offices without the resources and autonomy to succeed. That's where our four investment strategies of Lux Labs, corporate spin-offs, tactical global opportunities and fixware come in. We discuss the potential of each in turn. Then there's a wider set of warnings from Epimetheus and Menoetius, two Greek Titans whose arrogance and hubris would prove their downfall. We bring them up in the course of discussing the future of AI infrastructure, its expansive energy needs, the power of decentralized compute technologies and finally, the potential for Apple to emerge from behind as an AI winner.

Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Samuel Arbesman⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. In this episode, Sam speaks with Dave Jilk. Dave is a tech entrepreneur and writer. He's done a ton: started multiple companies, including in AI, published works of poetry, and written scientific papers. And he's now written a new book that is an epic poem about the origins of Artificial General Intelligence, told from the perspective of the first such entity. It's titled Epoch: A Poetic Psy-Phi Saga and is a deeply thoughtful humanistic take on artificial intelligence, chock-full of literary allusions. Sam wanted to speak with Dave to learn more about the origins of Epoch as well as how he thinks about AI more broadly. They discussed the history of AI, how we might think about raising AI, the Great Filter, post-AGI futures and their nature, and whether asking if we should build AGI is even a good question. They even finished this fun conversation with a bit of science fiction recommendations. Produced by⁠⁠⁠ ⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠⁠⁠ Music by⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ & Suno

It's not every day that we can get our distributed Riskgaming team into one podcast studio, but we actually managed to do it from our NYC base, and with some drinks to boot. Joining host Danny Crichton is Lux's Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner and our researcher, part-time columnist and all around utility handyman Michael Magnani. We talk about the U.S. presidential election and which threats from our AI deepfake election security scenario DeepFaked and DeepSixed actually took place — and which didn't. We then cover Germany's sputtering industrial economy, the future of the war in Ukraine and trade tensions with China. Finally, we close out with a discussion of the three threats that the world isn't thinking about today, and what should be done about them.

Anduril has become one of the most-watched companies in Silicon Valley, and for good reason. Its vertiginous rise from small hardware laboratory to next-generation defense prime has entranced engineers and investors alike, and it has also garnered an increasingly long record of success in Washington DC, including its victory in securing the U.S. Air Force's flagship Collaborative Combat Aircraft contract earlier this year. Yet for co-founder and CEO Brian Schimpf, the real magic of Anduril has been its ability to scale design, manufacturing and its culture from a dozen early employees to more than 4,000 today. Brian's maniacal focus has been on ensuring that Anduril never becomes a legacy defense prime ploddingly delivering half-baked products to the disappointed faces of warfighters. Instead, he and his team have tenaciously strategized on business models, contract negotiations, tuck-in M&A, engineering culture and manufacturing centralization and decentralization to ensure that Anduril always offers the highest-quality and most cost-effective products in the marketplace. Alongside Lux's own Josh Wolfe, Brian talks about his own founding journey at Anduril, the company's burgeoning portfolio of products, and how it's rebuilding the arsenal of democracy in the years ahead through clever and strategic leadership.

Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Samuel Arbesman⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. In this episode, Sam speaks with the writer Henry Oliver. Henry is the author of the fantastic new book Second Act. This book is about the idea of late bloomers and professional success later in life, and more broadly how to think about one's career, and Sam recently reviewed it for The Wall Street Journal. Sam really enjoyed this book and wanted to have a chance to discuss it with Henry. Henry and Sam had a chance to talk about a lot of topics, beginning with how to actually define late bloomers and what makes a successful second act possible, from experimentation to being ready when one's moment arrives. They also explored why society doesn't really accept late bloomers as much as one might want it to, how to think about the complexity of cognitive decline, what the future of retirement might look like, along with many examples of late bloomers—from Margaret Thatcher to Ray Kroc. Produced by⁠⁠ ⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠⁠ Music by⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ & Suno

The sudden widespread usage of advanced artificial intelligence models has massively increased global demand for data centers that can handle inference and training. That's been a boon for Nvidia's stock, but it has also added massive new demands to our energy grid. Microsoft recently announced that it intends to re-open the ill-fated Three Mile Island nuclear power plant, while Google has announced investments and partnerships with nuclear startups like Kairos Power. Yet, much of the obvious analysis of this market is far less obvious than meets the eye, or at least the eyes of Mark Mills. Across decades of studying the energy markets, Mark is currently a distinguished senior fellow at the Texas Public Policy Foundation, the executive director of the National Center for Energy Analytics, and a contributing editor of the Manhattan Institute's City Journal. We talk about the contradictions in much of today's energy analysis, including the misdirection of attention toward AI instead of traditional compute which vastly dwarfs it; the misapplication of economic development incentives by cities and state to data center construction; and the misunderstanding of energy transitions — a mirage according to Mark since we are always seeking to expand all forms of energy to power our civilization.

Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Samuel Arbesman⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. In this episode, Sam speaks with Dominic Falcao, a founding director of Deep Science Ventures (DSV), which he created in 2016 after leading Imperial College London's science startup program. Deep Science Ventures takes a principled and problem-based approach to founding new deep tech startups. They have even created a PhD program for scientists specifically geared towards helping them create new companies. Sam wanted to speak with Dom to discuss the origins of Deep Science Ventures, as well as how to think about scientific and technological progress more broadly, and even how to conceive new research organizations. Dom and Sam had a chance to discuss tech trees and the combinatorial nature of scientific and technological innovation, non-traditional research organizations, Europe's tech innovation ecosystem, what scientific amphibians are, and the use of AI in the realm of deep tech. Produced by⁠ ⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠ Music by⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ & Suno

We're really excited to talk about the launch of our second public Riskgaming scenario, “DeepFaked and DeepSixed: AI Election Security and the Future of Democracy.” DeepFaked and DeepSixed is a bit different from our previous political and economic simulations, which tend toward groups of 4-8 people negotiating, haggling and cajoling over the course of several hours. Instead, this game centers on an intelligence fusion center at the White House where 54 people come together to offer information and to seek out patterns of threats against American democracy. Player roles come from across government, international organizations, the private sector and non-profits, and are designed to offer both a crisp backstory as well as essential clues relevant to that character's background. Everyone cooperates against the clock to identify critical threats before it is too late. Lux's director of programming Laurence Pevsner (who is making his Riskgaming podcast debut) and host Danny Crichton talk about the design of the game, what triggered its creation and the lessons we learned from two runthroughs in New York and Washington this week (including which city did better to protect American elections).

Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Samuel Arbesman⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. In this episode, Sam speaks with writer, researcher, and entrepreneur Max Bennett. Max is the cofounder of multiple AI companies and the author of the fascinating book A Brief History of Intelligence: Evolution, AI, and the Five Breakthroughs That Made Our Brains. This book offers a deeply researched look at the nature of intelligence and how biological history has led to this phenomenon. It explores aspects of evolution, the similarities and differences between AI and human intelligence, many features of neuroscience, and more. Produced by ⁠Christopher Gates⁠ Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ & Suno

The automobile industry is one of the most pivotal in the world, both due to its scale and its nexus at the heart of the manufacturing systems in countries such as the United States, Germany, Japan, Korea and China. There's a massive transformation of the industry underway as consumers transition from internal combustion engines to electric vehicles, and China is increasingly leading the way with innovative and affordable cars from the likes of BYD and others. How will the future of the industry change, and how do the political dynamics of China's leadership affect which countries will win — and which will falter? Our upcoming Riskgaming scenario, “Powering Up: China's Global Quest for Electric Vehicle Dominance,” simulates this complex business environment by fusing the transition from ICEs to EVs with the opaque vagaries of China's national security and industrial policies. It's designed by Ian Curtiss, who lived and worked in China for many years before decamping to Arizona and continuing to build a series of tabletop games covering everything from the geopolitics of the modern world to the politics of medieval Europe on the Iberian Peninsula. Ian and host Danny Crichton talk about “Powering Up” and its design, how the tradeoffs in the game can inform decision-making in the real world, and why people are so engaged with the Riskgaming model of gameplay.

Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Samuel Arbesman⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. In this episode, the Sam speaks with novelist Lev Grossman. A longtime fan of Lev's novels, the host delves into his works, including The Magicians trilogy—a splendid set of books about a university for magic, fantastical worlds, and much more. These books are amazing. Lev's newest book is the novel The Bright Sword, a retelling of the legends of King Arthur, particularly focusing on what happens after Arthur dies. The Sam devoured The Bright Sword and found it fascinating. It's a book that weaves together ideas about gods and magic, the layering of myths across history, and much more—all topics explored in the conversation with Lev. Lev and Sam discuss the story of King Arthur, its gaps and its history, the layering of gods and stories over time, the nature of magic and religion, the importance of secondary worlds, and the magic in The Magicians versus the magic of The Bright Sword. They even have a chance to discuss Lev's next project, which is a space opera. This episode was a lot of fun. Produced by ⁠⁠⁠⁠CRG Consulting⁠⁠⁠⁠ Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ & Suno

China's pivot from open to closed over the past decade has been striking. It wasn't so long ago that tens of thousands of students and thousands of journalists and researchers were living and studying in the country, with multitudes of ambitious business executives spread across the nation's financial capitals. Now, the number of Americans traveling and living in China has hit another low. With less grounded information, what are Americans missing about its most important trade partner and its growing adversary? Randal Phillips knows the crisis better than anyone. The former chief CIA representative in China and a 28-year veteran of the agency's Directorate of Operations, he retired for the world of business consulting, focusing on answering key geopolitical and business landscape questions for global clients. He was also vice chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in China. Now, he's increasingly concerned about the closing of the country's borders and information systems, making it increasingly challenging for executives and political leaders to understand what they don't know. Randal and host Danny Crichton talk about the recent Department of Justice indictment against the Sinaloa drug cartel and underground Chinese money launderers, and then we cover the fentanyl crisis, the shrinking space for information and due diligence firms on China's economy, the challenges of operating on the mainland and the CIA's operations, and finally, what the prognosis is for China's economy in the years ahead.

Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Samuel Arbesman⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. In this episode, Sam speaks with Alex Miller, a software developer and artist known for his work on a project called Spacefiller. This project exemplifies generative art, where computer code is used to create art and imagery. Spacefiller itself is a pixelated form of artwork that feels organic and biological, but is entirely crafted through algorithms. Sam invited Alex to discuss not only Spacefiller, but also the broader world of generative art, and the concept of coding as a fun and playful activity. Together, they explore topics such as the distinction between computation as art and computation as software engineering, the nature of algorithmic botany, and even the wonders of graph paper. Produced by ⁠⁠⁠CRG Consulting⁠⁠⁠ Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ & Suno

China's vertiginous rise over the past three decades has finally dawned on the Washington DC foreign policy blob. The hopes and dreams of China's reform-and-opening period have transitioned to the fear and loathing of the Xi era, triggering broad concerns about America's standing in the world today and in the future. Are we falling behind China in economic performance, research, dynamism and talent? Are America's best days behind it? For Dmitri Alperovitch, the answer is an emphatic “no.” The co-founder and former CTO of cybersecurity firm Crowdstrike and the co-author of this year's “World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century,” Alperovitch believes that the United States already has all the qualities to extend Pax Americana for another century. In his view, there is far too much cynicism in DC these days, and not enough of the optimism for the future that he bears with him from years as an entrepreneur and as an immigrant from the former Soviet Union. Alperovitch and host Danny Crichton discuss the qualities that America still has going for it, and how the media overemphasizes negative trends at the expense of a more holistic picture of America's performance. We then talk about upgrading the Defense Department, the need for better procurement around emerging technologies, the advent of software complementing hardware on the battlefield, and the lessons we can learn from Ukraine's experience fighting Russia.

Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Samuel Arbesman⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. In this episode, Sam speaks with J. Doyne Farmer, a physicist, complexity scientist, and economist. Doyne is currently the Director of the Complexity Economics program at the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School and the Baillie Gifford Professor of Complex Systems Science at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at the University of Oxford. Doyne is also the author of the fascinating new book “Making Sense of Chaos: A Better Economics for a Better World.” Sam wanted to explore Doyne's intriguing history in complexity science, his new book, and the broader field of complexity economics. Together, they discuss the nature of simulation, complex systems, the world of finance and prediction, and even the differences between biological complexity and economic complexity. They also touch on Doyne's experience building a small wearable computer in the 1970s that fit inside a shoe and was designed to beat the game of roulette. Produced by ⁠⁠CRG Consulting⁠⁠ Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ & Suno

Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Samuel Arbesman⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. In this episode, Sam speaks with Tarin Ziyaee, a technologist and founder, about the world of artificial life. The field of artificial life explores ways to describe and encapsulate aspects of life within software and computer code. Tarin has extensive experience in machine learning and AI, having worked at Meta and Apple, and is currently building a company in the field of Artificial Life. This new company—which, full disclosure, Sam is also advising—aims to embody aspects of life within software to accelerate evolution and develop robust methods for controlling robotic behavior in the real world. Sam wanted to speak with Tarin to discuss the nature of artificial life, its similarities and differences to more traditional artificial intelligence approaches, the idea of open-endedness, and more. They also had a chance to chat about tool usage and intelligence, large language models versus large action models, and even robots. Produced by ⁠CRG Consulting⁠ Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ & Suno

In this episode of the RISKGAMING Podcast, host Danny Crichton sits down with columnist Michael Magnani to dissect the explosive rise of legalized sports betting in America and its far-reaching consequences. The conversation then pivots to broader geopolitical topics, including the role of open-source intelligence in modern warfare and how technology is changing the defense landscape. They wrap the episode up with a look at Japan's election results and the shifting political dynamics that could alter the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific.

Science is the world's greatest force for progress, but how are the people and institutions that compose this critical activity performing? More specifically, how well is American science competing as more and more countries focus on sci-tech supremacy as a key aspect of building power? The frontiers of technology are determinative of destiny, and so who is pushing those boundaries furthest is crucial to understand. Those questions and more are what Lux Capital's co-founder and managing partnerJosh Wolfe and Riskgaming host Danny Crichton talk about. Riffing on Lux's most recent LP quarterly letter, which emphasized the tension between the nihilist antihero of V for Vendetta against the collaborative community at the heart of scientific progress, the two debate the promise of greater prosperity against the concerning signals of stagnation that are talked about relentlessly in the press. Among the other topics the two discuss are why scientists continue to compete so ferociously for recognition; the sins of human nature; why the cultures of labs, schools and nations is so vital for progress; recent capital market changes particularly around interest rates; AI's influence in the sciences; and finally, how VCs will make money in AI — and how they can also lose tens of billions of dollars as valuations evaporate.

Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Samuel Arbesman⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. In this conversation, he speaks with Omar Rizwan, a programmer currently working on Folk Computer. Omar has a longstanding interest in user interfaces in computing and is now focused on creating physical interfaces that enable computing in a more communal and tangible way—think of moving sheets of paper in the real world and projecting images onto surfaces. Folk Computer is an open-source project that explores a new type of computing in this vein. Samuel engages with Omar on a range of topics, from Folk Computer and the broader space of user interfaces, to the challenges of building computer systems and R&D organizations. Their conversation covers how Omar thinks about code and artificial intelligence, the world of physical computing, and his childhood experiences with programming, including the significance of meeting another programmer in person for the first time. Produced by CRG Consulting Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ & Suno

This week, Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon were injured and killed by the thousands across two waves of attacks when their pagers and walkie-talkies exploded. Presumably orchestrated by Israel, it's one of the most complex and successful supply-chain attacks in world history, and it has mesmerized the global espionage community. We wanted to go deeper into supply-chain risks, and so we brought Nick Reese onto the Riskgaming podcast to talk more. Nick was the inaugural director of emerging technology policy at the US Department of Homeland Security, where he developed policies across cybersecurity, artificial intelligence, quantum computing and more. Today, he's the CEO and founder of his own business, Frontier Foundry Corporation, as well as a faculty member at New York University. Nick and host Danny Crichton talk about the attack on Hezbollah and consider the networked challenges of securing supply chains for the United States. The two then swing wider to the national security challenges inherent in emerging technologies and how public-private partnerships are mitigating some of those risks.

Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Samuel Arbesman⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. In this episode, Sam speaks with Eli Altman, the managing director of A Hundred Monkeys, a company that specializes in the art of naming. A Hundred Monkeys works with clients to come up with the perfect name for a company, product, or anything else that requires a name. The art of naming is a fascinating subject. Throughout human history, the power of names has been a recurring theme in stories and religion. A well-crafted name has the ability to evoke emotions and associations in a profoundly impactful way. Sam invited Eli to the show because he has been immersed in this field for decades, growing up with a father who specialized in naming. The conversation explores the intricacies of this art, how experts balance competing considerations when crafting a name, the different types of names, and what makes a name successful. They also discuss the importance of writing and storytelling in naming, the impact of AI on the field, and much more. Produced by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ & Suno

The old adage of “If you build it, they will come” might be translated into chip design better as, “You can't build it, since they don't exist.” The small but crucial profession of chip design used to be a quieter niche within the broader semiconductor market, with just a handful of companies hiring PhD grads. Now, with trillion-dollar companies like Apple, Google, Meta and more all looking to develop custom silicon, securing chip designers is suddenly an ultra-competitive business — and wages are soaring. At its source is the rise of artificial intelligence and the need for custom silicon to improve the performance-to-power ratio in contexts ranging from mobile devices to data centers. Apple's launch this week of its new iPhone 16 line is a case in point: years of design work have afforded Apple the ability to deliver its “Apple Intelligence” product with on-device inference with relatively minimal effect on battery life. Now, dozens of more companies want to compete in this bubbly market and beyond. Lux general partner Shahin Farshchi and host Danny Crichton talk about the evolution of chip design and how an incumbent oligopoly of electronic design automation companies are now facing new competition from AI-driven competitors. We talk about the history of the EDA market and why custom silicon is really a reversion to historical norms, why designing chips hasn't changed much in decades and is now rapidly changing for the first time, how large tech companies are using chip design to vertically integrate, the growing exponential complexity of modern chips, and finally, how startups are poised to have access to this market for the first time in a generation. Produced by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George K

Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Samuel Arbesman⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. In this episode, Sam speaks with ⁠Alex Komoroske⁠, a master of systems thinking. Alex is the CEO and co-founder of a startup building at the intersection of AI, privacy, and open-endedness. Previously, he served as the Head of Corporate Strategy at Stripe, and before that, spent many years at Google, where he worked on the Chrome web platform, ambient computing strategy, Google Maps, Google Earth, and more. The throughline for Alex is his focus on complex systems, which are everywhere: from the Internet to biology, from the organizations we build to society as a whole. These systems consist of networks of countless interacting parts, whether computers or people. Navigating them requires a new mode of thinking, quite different from the top-down rigid planning many impose on the world. Alex is deeply passionate about systems thinking and its broad implications—from making an impact in the world and navigating within and between organizations to understanding undirectedness and curiosity in one's work. His more bottom-up, improvisational approach to systems thinking reveals insights on a range of topics, from how to approach large tech companies and the value of startups, to a perspective on artificial intelligence that untangles hype from reality. Produced by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ & Suno Show notes: Chapters 00:00 Thinking in Terms of Systems 04:11 The Adjacent Possible and Agency 08:21 Saruman vs. Radagast: Different Leadership Models 13:17 Financializing Value and the Role of Radagasts 21:59 Making Time for Reflection and Leverage 25:18 Different Styles and Time Scales of Impact 28:14 The Challenges of Large Organizations and the Tyranny of the Rocket Equation 34:10 The Potential and Responsibility of Generative AI 45:12 Disrupting Power Structures and Empowering Individuals through Startups Takeaways Embrace the complexity and uncertainty of systems when approaching problem-solving. Shift the focus from individual heroics to collective efforts and systemic thinking. Recognize the value of the Radagast approach in nurturing and growing the potential of individuals and teams. Consider the different dynamics and boundaries within large organizations and startups. Take the time to step back, reflect, and find leverage points for greater impact. Focus on your highest and best use, not just what you're good at, but what leads to something you're proud of. Consider the long-term implications of your actions and whether you would be proud of them in the future. Large organizations can become inefficient and lose focus due to coordination challenges and the tyranny of the rocket equation. Open source can be a powerful force for good, but it can also be used as a control mechanism by larger organizations. Generative AI has the potential to make the boundary between creators and consumers more porous, but responsible implementation is crucial. Startups offer the opportunity to disrupt existing power structures and business models, giving individuals more sovereignty and control over their data. Keywords systems thinking, uncertainty, complexity, individual heroics, collective, leadership, Saruman, Radagast, startups, large organizations, large organizations, values, decision-making, generative AI, startups, data sovereignty

Silicon Valley couldn't be farther from the confines of Langley or Fort Meade, let alone Beijing or Moscow. Yet, the verdant foothills of suburban sprawl that encompass the Bay Area have played host to some of the most technically sophisticated espionage missions the world has ever seen. As the home of pivotal technologies from semiconductors to databases, artificial intelligence and more, no place has a greater grip on the technological edge than California — and every nation and their intelligence services want access. It just so happens that almost no national security reporter sits on this beat. Nearly all cover the sector from Washington, or in rare cases New York. All except one that is: Zach Dorfman. Zach has been driving the coverage of the technical side of espionage operations for years, and his pathbreaking scoops about China's unraveling of the CIA's network of operatives in the early 2010s were widely read in DC officialdom. Now, he's published two blockbuster features, one in Politico Magazine on the FBI's attempts to intercede in the chip trade between the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. at the height of the Cold War in the 1980s, and the other in Rolling Stone on a deep-cover agent and the very human consequences of state-to-state skullduggery. Zach and host Danny Crichton talk about Silicon Valley's history in industrial espionage, the tricky mechanics of intercepting and disabling chip shipments to the Soviet Union, why the U.S.S.R. was so keen on learning the market dynamics of computing in America, the risks for today's companies around insider threats, Wirecard and Jan Marsalek and finally, some thoughts on Xi Jinping and how China's rollup of the CIA's mainland intelligence network affected his leadership of America's current greatest adversary. Produced by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Samuel Arbesman⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. In this episode, Sam speaks with Adrian Tchaikovsky, the celebrated novelist of numerous science fiction and fantasy books, including his Children of Time series, Final Architects series, and The Doors of Eden. Among many other topics, Adrian's novels often explore evolutionary history, combining “what-if” questions with an expansive view of the possible directions biology can take, with implications for both Earth and alien life. This is particularly evident in The Doors of Eden, which examines alternate potential paths for evolution and intelligence on Earth. Sam was interested in speaking with Adrian to learn how he thinks about evolution, how he builds the worlds in his stories, and how he envisions the far future of human civilization. They discussed a wide range of topics, including short-term versus long-term thinking, terraforming planets versus altering human biology for space, the Fermi Paradox and SETI, the logic of evolution, world-building, and even how advances in AI relate to science fiction depictions of artificial intelligence. Produced by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ & Suno

Gaming has enveloped our world. A majority of Americans now gamble at least once every year, and popular video games like Fortnite and Roblox count hundreds of millions of global players. In social science, game theory and its descendants remain the mainstay for objectively analyzing human rationality, even as a gigaton of evidence shows the limits of these mathematical approaches. Meanwhile in foreign affairs, wargaming (including some of our very own Riskgaming scenarios!) are used to explore speculative futures that can change the fate of nations. All of these subjects and more are fodder in Playing With Reality: How Games Have Shaped Our World, a broad and open inquiry into the nature of games written by neuroscientist Kelly Clancy. Kelly weaves discussions of dopamine, surprise, chance and learning into a history of human behavioral development over the ages, but then she pivots her discussion. For all of gaming's success across time and around the world, what are its limits and are we properly critiquing these simulacra of reality? Kelly joins host Danny Crichton to talk about her book and so much more across an extended show that gets at the very heart of Riskgaming. We talk about the history of games, why the theory of probability arrived so late in the development of mathematics, why game theory works mathematically but fails to capture the complexity and dynamism of human behavior, how AI models use gaming techniques like self-play to evolve, and how the world might change given the explosive popularity of interactive gaming in all facets of modern life. Produced by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Samuel Arbesman⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. In this episode, Samuel Arbesman speaks with John Strausbaugh, a former editor of New York Press and the author of numerous history books. John's latest work is the compelling new book “The Wrong Stuff: How the Soviet Space Program Crashed and Burned.” The book is an eye-opening delight, filled with stories about the Potemkin Village-like space program that the Soviets ran. Beneath the achievements that alarmed the United States, the Soviet space program was essentially a shambling disaster. The book reveals many tales that had been hidden from the public for years. In this conversation, Samuel explores how John became interested in this topic, the nature of the Soviet space program and the Cold War's Space Race, the role of propaganda, how to think about space programs more generally, and much more. Produced by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ & Suno

Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by ⁠⁠⁠⁠Samuel Arbesman⁠⁠⁠⁠. In this episode, Sam speaks with Michael Levin, a biologist and the Vannevar Bush Professor at Tufts University. Michael's work encompasses how information is processed in biology, the development of organismal structures, the field of Artificial Life, and much more. Sam wanted to talk to Michael because of his pioneering research in these areas. Biology, as Michael's work reveals, is far more complex than the mechanistic explanations often taught in school. For instance, the process of morphogenesis—how organisms develop their specific forms—challenges our understanding of computation in biology, and Michael is leading the way in this field. He has deeply explored concepts such as the relationship between hardware and software in biological systems, the process of morphogenesis, the idea of polycomputing, and even the notion of cognition in biology. From his investigations into the regeneration process in planaria—a type of flatworm—to the creation of xenobots, a form of Artificial Life, Michael stands at the forefront of groundbreaking ideas in understanding how biology functions.

Global inequality has grown over the past two decades, concentrating an enormous amount of wealth and power on an elite number of individuals, cities, regions and nations all while stranding the vast masses to ignominy and penury. Yet, history is replete with examples of people and places that have caught up — and in some cases even surpassed — once foregone winners, begging the question: how should those left behind today work to catch up? That's the question that Paul Collier addresses in his new book, “Left Behind: A New Economics for Neglected Places.” Collier is a long-time development economist who has diligently brought the spotlight onto the most impoverished people in the world, calling attention to what he famously dubbed the “bottom billion.” With his new book, he explores why some places that were once terrifically wealthy — think Detroit in America — have fallen behind economically, and what steps are needed to overcome that stagnation. With host Danny Crichton, Collier talks about the economic reversals of places around the world, why evolutionary economics and contributive justice offer new lenses on the problem, how addressing radical uncertainty through rapid learning suggests a path forward, and why global development institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund remain so recalcitrant in their approaches to aid, particularly in offering agency to those affected by their decisions. Produced by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by ⁠⁠⁠Samuel Arbesman⁠⁠⁠. In this episode, Sam speaks with Laurel Schwulst. Laurel operates within many roles: designer, artist, educator, and technologist. She explores—among other things—the intersection of the human, the computational, and the wonderful. Sam wanted to talk to Laurel because of this intersection and particularly because of how Laurel thinks about the internet. As part of this, she helps to run HTML Day and its celebrations, promotes what is referred to as “HTML Energy,” and is even thinking deeply about what it would mean to create a PBS of the Internet. In other words, the Internet and the web are delightful and special for Laurel, and she wants more of that energy to exist in the world.

It's good and bad times in America. Inflation is down and wages are up in real terms, but there's a rising challenge: how can we provide the housing, transportation, schooling, health care and amenities that Americans expect when prices for these social services have skyrocketed over the past three decades? Even when new technologies are capable of delivering better services, rules and regulations often stymie their dissemination. America was once the most progressive nation in the world — what happened? Many analysts focus on policies, from zoning and permitting reform to government procurement modernization, that can accelerate the adoption of frontier tech and increase productivity. But Jason Crawford takes a more expansive and longer view of the challenge. As founder and leader of the Roots of Progress Institute and through his on-going publication of The Techno-Humanist Manifesto, Jason emphasizes that we have lost something important: our industrial literacy. America's leaders no longer understand how prosperity was delivered from the Industrial Revolution onwards, and we've lost the ability to rebuild and expand wealth in its broadest conception for the next generation. I talk with Jason about his manifesto and its focus on humanism, and then we walk through some of the major ideas he's hoping Americans pick up. These range from more progress studies in high schools and colleges as well as a greater understanding about the value that technology delivers for quality of life to the importance of gratitude for our ancestors who delivered this prosperity to us and why technocrats and reactionaries can both be wrong about managing technological change. Produced by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Welcome to the ongoing mini-series The Orthogonal Bet. Hosted by ⁠⁠Samuel Arbesman⁠⁠, a Complexity Scientist, Author, and Scientist in Residence at Lux Capital. In this episode, Sam speaks with Eliot Peper. Eliot is a science fiction novelist and all-around delightful thinker. Eliot's books are thrilling tales of the near future, exploring many delightful areas of the world and the frontiers of science and technology. In Eliot's most recent novel, Foundry, he takes the reader on a journey through the world of semiconductors, from their geopolitical implications to their profoundly weird manufacturing processes. Sam wanted to talk to Eliot to explore this profound strangeness of the manufacturing of computer chips, but also use this as a jumping-off point for something broader: how Eliot discovers these interesting topics and those wondrous worlds that are incorporated into his books. They spoke about the importance of curiosity, as well as concrete ways to cultivate this useful kind of curiosity, which was fascinating. Produced by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ & Suno

The CrowdStrike meltdown on July 19th shut down the world with one faulty patch — proving once again the interconnected fragility of global IT systems. On Tuesday this week, the company released its Root Cause Analysis as both an explanation and a mea culpa, but the wider question remains: with so much of our lives dependent on silicon and electrons, how can engineers design resilience into their code from the bottoms up? And more importantly, how can we effectively test how resilient our systems actually are? Kolton Andrus is one of the experts on this subject. For years at Amazon and Netflix, he worked on designing fault-tolerant systems, building upon the nascent ideas of the field of chaos engineering, an approach that iteratively and stochastically challenges systems to test for resilience. Now, as CTO and founder of Gremlin, he's democratizing access to chaos engineering and reliability testing for everyone. Kolton joins host Danny Crichton and Lux's scientist-in-residence and complexity specialist Sam Arbesman. Together, we talk about why resilience must start at the beginning of product design, how resilience is aligning with security as a core value of developer culture, how computer engineering is maturing as a field, and finally, why we need more technological humility about the interconnections of our global compute infrastructure.