Podcasts about counterpoint global

Last week, we recirculated one of my favorite episodes in the entire archive, our May 2022 lunch debate on risk, bias and decision-making with Nobel Prize Winner Danny Kahneman, World Series of Poker champion Annie Duke, legendary investment strategist Michael Maubaussin of Morgan Stanley's Counterpoint Global, and our own founding managing partner Josh Wolfe. In last week's episode, the group discussed the value of premortems, the possibility or impossibility of humans changing their minds and dissonance reduction.Now we turn to the second half of their conversation as they look at the illusions and amplifications of optimism, overconfidence, and whether hot hands exist in real life.

This is a big week for us, since we officially re-launched the newsletter on our gorgeous new web address Riskgaming.com, which we are now hosting on Substack. You'll find all of our archives there, as well as much easier tools to manage your subscription to our Dispatches, Event Announcements, our edited Interviews and after almost a decade, Lux Recommends.We've had thousands of new people subscribe and follow us over the past two years, and so I figured this re-launch week was also an opportune time to recirculate one of my absolute favorite episodes of the podcast from three years ago in May 2022. Daniel Kahneman, alongside his long-time research partner Amos Tversky, pioneered the field now broadly known as decision science, exploring the economics, incentives, tradeoffs and psychologies of humans making judgments in moments of uncertainty. Tversky would pass away in 1996, and Kahneman would win the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics for much of the work they partnered together on.In the months after our recording, Kahneman made an extraordinary decision under uncertainty of his own. Concerned about his future risk for dementia, he decided to travel to Switzerland at the age of 90 to pass away through assisted suicide. It was an astonishing final decision by the master of decision-making, and he conducted his final act in secrecy before it was revealed in The Wall Street Journal in a column by Jason Zweig last month.I had the opportunity to host Kahneman alongside World Series of Poker champion Annie Duke, legendary investment strategist Michael Maubaussin of Morgan Stanley's Counterpoint Global and our own founding managing partner Josh Wolfe for a lunch debate on the current research and trends underpinning risk, bias and decision-making. We merged our four part original series down to two parts. This week, we cover the ideas of pre-mortem as well as dissonance reduction and what circumstances lead people to changing their minds at all.

What if the key to successful investing is about understanding how market expectations, intangible assets, and even your own biases shape the outcome? In this episode, Cameron sits down with Michael Mauboussin, a renowned expert in investment strategies and behavioural finance, to explore how the evolving dynamics of investing influence valuation, investor decision-making, and market efficiency. Michael is the head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, part of Morgan Stanley Investment Management, and an adjunct professor at Columbia Business School, where he teaches courses on investing and decision-making. His work focuses on behavioural biases, skill versus luck, complex adaptive systems, and valuation. In our conversation, we discuss the core principles of equity investing, unpack the evolution of intangible assets, and explore how market dynamics are influenced by index funds. You'll learn about capital allocation strategies, the shifting landscape of private equity, accounting challenges with intangibles, and how traditional investment frameworks are being redefined. Michael also provides insight into the "free dividend" fallacy, the importance of understanding the basic unit of analysis, the paradox of skill in active management, and more. Join us to learn about market and investing fundamentals to improve your strategy with Michael Mauboussin. Tune in now!   Key Points From This Episode:   (0:03:08) What the primary job of an equity investor is and the origin of stock returns. (0:05:37) Why dividends are less critical to total shareholder return unless fully reinvested. (0:08:43) Dissect the behaviour of investors in dividend stocks and the "free dividend fallacy." (0:10:01) Value versus growth classifications and how intangible assets impact valuations. (0:16:39) Learn about the potential advantages for companies investing in intangible assets. (0:20:20) How to determine a company's position in the competitive advantage life cycle. (0:24:42) The phase that offers the highest returns and what to consider about newer industries. (0:26:18) Explore the tradeoffs of intangible-intensive companies and the impact on base rates. (0:29:22) Pitfalls of valuation multiples and the implications for systematic value investors. (0:32:25) Relevance of market metrics and how index funds have affected alpha opportunities. (0:38:14) Effects of rising indexed assets and what to consider about market concentration. (0:45:01) Discover the historical link between market concentration and future returns.  (0:46:31) How active managers benefit markets and misconceptions about skilled managers.  (0:48:46) The value of active managers and advice for structuring investment portfolios. (0:52:44) Unpack the shift from public to private equities and why it happened.  (0:55:40) Insights into the benefits of private over public equities for investors.  (0:58:00) Ways intangible assets influenced the rise of private equity.  (0:59:27) What the market says about future returns and using public equity for diversification.   Links From Today's Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — info@rationalreminder.caBenjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Michael Mauboussin — https://www.michaelmauboussin.com/ Michael Mauboussin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-mauboussin-12519b2/ Michael Mauboussin on X — https://x.com/mjmauboussin Columbia Business School — https://business.columbia.edu/ Morgan Stanley | Counterpoint Global — https://www.morganstanley.com/im/en-us/individual-investor/about-us/investment-teams/active-fundamental-equity/counterpoint-global-team.html The Heilbrunn Center for Graham and Dodd Investing — https://business.columbia.edu/heilbrunn Episode 332: Randolph Cohen and Michael Green — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/332   Books From Today's Episode:   The Success Equation — https://www.amazon.com/Success-Equation-Untangling-Business-Investing/dp/1422184234 More Than You Know — https://www.amazon.com/More-Than-You-Know-Unconventional/dp/0231143729 Expectations Investing — https://www.amazon.com/Expectations-Investing-Reading-Prices-Returns/dp/159139127X Think Twice — https://www.amazon.com/Think-Twice-Harnessing-Power-Counterintuition/dp/1422187381 Creating Shareholder Value — https://www.amazon.com/Creating-Shareholder-Value-Managers-Investors/dp/0684844109 Capitalism Without Capital — https://www.amazon.com/Capitalism-without-Capital-Intangible-Economy/dp/0691175039 The New Goliaths — https://www.amazon.com/New-Goliaths-Corporations-Industries-Innovation/dp/0300255047 Security Analysis — https://www.amazon.com/Security-Analysis-Foreword-Buffett-Editions/dp/0071592539 —    Papers From Today's Episode:    'The Dividend Disconnect' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2876373 'Trading Stages in the Company Life Cycle' — https://www.morganstanley.com/im/en-gb/intermediary-investor/insights/articles/trading-stages-in-the-company-life-cycle.html

Today's guest is Michael Mauboussin, Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, a $70 billion equity manager.  In today's episode, Michael covers some of his latest research on market concentration, equity issuance and stock buybacks, and how the boom and bust cycle relates to AI today. He also shares some common attributes among great investors, lessons from Elon Musk & Tesla, and more. (1:31) Guest Introduction: Michael Mauboussin (2:41) Capital allocation and stock-based compensation (9:58) Trivia question on the top performing stock (15:56) Market concentration (23:13) Modern value investing & the rise of intangibles (28:45) Attributes of great investors (33:09) Factors influencing total shareholder returns (42:22) Technology, capitalism, and market predictability (48:15) Indexing, market efficiency & book recommendations (54:10) The Santa Fe Institute's interdisciplinary approach ----- Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Today's episode is sponsored by YCharts. YCharts enables financial advisors to make smarter investment decisions and better communicate with clients. Visit YCharts to download their 2024 Election Guide & start your free trial - be sure to mention "Meb" for 20% off your subscription (new clients only).  Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.  ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

My guest today is Michael Mauboussin (@mjmauboussin), one of the world's leading experts in finance. Michael serves as Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, Morgan Stanley. He has authored three books and regularly appears in the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, New York Times, and other publications. Since 1993, Michael has been an adjunct professor of finance at Columbia Business School and is also the chairman emeritus of the board of trustees at the Santa Fe Institute. In our conversation, we delve into the dynamics of markets, discuss all sorts of increasing returns, and explore topics such as Charles Darwin, policymaking, AI and Web3, and the Santa Fe Institute. I hope you enjoy our discussion. Find me on X at @⁠ProfSchrepel⁠⁠⁠⁠. Also, be sure to subscribe to the Scaling Theory podcast. ** References: Michael J. Mauboussin & Dan Callahan, "Increasing Returns: Identifying Forms of Increasing Returns and What Drives Them" (2024) https://perma.cc/Y3DN-LNMY Michael J. Mauboussin & Dan Callahan, "Stock Market Concentration: How Much Is Too Much?" (2024) https://perma.cc/7EEX-ZY9T Charles Darwin, The Autobiography of Charles Darwin: 1809-1882 https://www.amazon.com/Autobiography-Charles-Darwin-1809-1882/dp/0393310698  David Warsh, Knowledge and the Wealth of Nations: A Story of Economic Discovery (2007) https://www.amazon.com/Knowledge-Wealth-Nations-Economic-Discovery/dp/0393329887 James Bessen, The New Goliaths: How Corporations Use Software to Dominate Industries, Kill Innovation, and Undermine Regulation (2022) https://www.amazon.nl/-/en/James-Bessen/dp/0300255047 Chris Dixon, Read Write Own: Building the Next Era of the Internet (2023) https://readwriteown.com Anu Bradford, Digital Empires: The Global Battle to Regulate Technology (2023) https://global.oup.com/academic/product/digital-empires-9780197649268 Kenneth J. Arrow, "The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing" (1962) https://www.jstor.org/stable/2295952 J. Doyne Farmer, Making Sense of Chaos (2024) https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/284357/making-sense-of-chaos-by-farmer-j-doyne/9780241201978

In this episode, we have the pleasure of hosting Michael Mauboussin, Michael is a highly respected figure in finance, celebrated for his deep insights into decision-making, behavioral economics, and investing. Michael is currently the Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global (part of Morgan Stanley Investment Management).  He also serves as an adjunct professor of finance teaching Security Analysis at Columbia Business School (since 1993), teaching essentially the same class that Ben Graham started teaching in 1920. Michael is chairman emeritus of the board of trustees of the Santa Fe Institute, a leading center for multi-disciplinary research in complex systems theory. Mauboussin is best known for his influential books like "The Success Equation" and "Think Twice," which explore critical concepts such as the interplay of skill and luck in business and the power of counterintuitive thinking, which we will touch on in this episode.    In today's episode, we cover a wide range of topics, including the ongoing public vs. private equity discussion, luck vs. skill as skill increases, stock market concentration, buybacks, valuation and advice for aspiring investment professionals.    Today's hosts are Steve Curley, CFA (Founder, 55 North Private Wealth) & co-host Chris Cannon (CIO/Principal, FirsTrust)   Please enjoy the episode. You can follow us on Twitter & LinkedIn or at investorsfirstpodcast.com

Invest Like the Best Key Takeaways  The question to consider: Does AI help the strong get stronger, or does AI allow for new businesses to emerge and disrupt the incumbents? The top five technology companies are spending 2x on capital expenditure than the top five energy companies Companies should strive to increase the consumer's willingness to pay“Regulation is the friend of the incumbent.” – Bill Gurley Venture capital is one of the few asset classes that has high persistence: the past winners tend to be future winnersDevelop a framework that allows you to benefit from the group dynamics of pattern recognition, but that does not tie you to one specific type of pattern Instead of nit-picking how an investment may fail, make the primary focus of the discussion: “How big could this be?” Investors must capture the extreme events if they wish to outperform The sharpest minds desire to know where they are wrong about something Read the full notes @ podcastnotes.orgMy guests today are Bill Gurley and Michael Mauboussin. Bill is a General Partner at Benchmark, and Michael is the Head of Consilient Research for Counterpoint Global. While they are longtime friends with one another, I'd never heard them appear somewhere together so it was a real treat to be able to do this with the two of them. They are two of the leading minds in their fields, and we combined their decades of expertise into one wide-ranging conversation. We discuss the different kinds of increasing returns to scale, the issue of regulatory capture, AI, and hardware. Please enjoy this great conversation with Bill Gurley and Michael Mauboussin. Listen to Founders Podcast For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here. ----- This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the only investment research platform built for the investor. With traditional research vendors, the diligence process is slow, fragmented, and expensive. That leaves investors competing on how well they can aggregate data — not on their unique ability to analyze insights and make great investment decisions. Tegus offers an end-to-end platform with all the data you need to get up to speed on a company or market: up-to-the-minute financials, customizable models, management and culture checks, and, of course, our vast and growing library of expert call transcripts. Tegus is changing the world of expert research. Learn more and get your free trial at tegus.com/patrick. ----- Invest Like the Best is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Invest Like the Best, visit joincolossus.com/episodes.  Past guests include Tobi Lutke, Kevin Systrom, Mike Krieger, John Collison, Kat Cole, Marc Andreessen, Matthew Ball, Bill Gurley, Anu Hariharan, Ben Thompson, and many more. Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. Follow us on Twitter: @patrick_oshag | @JoinColossus Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Show Notes: (00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like the Best (00:03:38) Dissecting the Dynamics of AI, LLMs, and Market Disruption (00:05:06) The World of AI Investments and Market Trends (00:08:13) Integration of New Technologies in Business (00:15:27) The Power of Increasing Returns and Strategic Investments (00:22:26) Unpacking the Role of Intangibles in Scaling and Innovation (00:28:54) Transformative Potential of Open Source and Idea Recombination (00:34:42) The Complex Landscape of Regulation and Innovation (00:43:17) Today's Venture Capital Ecosystem (00:47:08) Impact of Fewer IPOs and Private Market Dynamics (00:50:38) Capital Allocation in Zero Interest Rate Environments (00:54:44) The Evolution of Venture Capital and High-Stakes Investment Games (00:57:21) Exploring New Frontiers: AI, Energy, and Physical World Innovations (01:01:14) The Power of Learning by Doing (01:17:49) Working with Genius (01:26:47) The Value of Teaching, Writing, and Sharing Knowledge

Invest Like the Best Key Takeaways  The question to consider: Does AI help the strong get stronger, or does AI allow for new businesses to emerge and disrupt the incumbents? The top five technology companies are spending 2x on capital expenditure than the top five energy companies Companies should strive to increase the consumer's willingness to pay“Regulation is the friend of the incumbent.” – Bill Gurley Venture capital is one of the few asset classes that has high persistence: the past winners tend to be future winnersDevelop a framework that allows you to benefit from the group dynamics of pattern recognition, but that does not tie you to one specific type of pattern Instead of nit-picking how an investment may fail, make the primary focus of the discussion: “How big could this be?” Investors must capture the extreme events if they wish to outperform The sharpest minds desire to know where they are wrong about something Read the full notes @ podcastnotes.orgMy guests today are Bill Gurley and Michael Mauboussin. Bill is a General Partner at Benchmark, and Michael is the Head of Consilient Research for Counterpoint Global. While they are longtime friends with one another, I'd never heard them appear somewhere together so it was a real treat to be able to do this with the two of them. They are two of the leading minds in their fields, and we combined their decades of expertise into one wide-ranging conversation. We discuss the different kinds of increasing returns to scale, the issue of regulatory capture, AI, and hardware. Please enjoy this great conversation with Bill Gurley and Michael Mauboussin. Listen to Founders Podcast For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here. ----- This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the only investment research platform built for the investor. With traditional research vendors, the diligence process is slow, fragmented, and expensive. That leaves investors competing on how well they can aggregate data — not on their unique ability to analyze insights and make great investment decisions. Tegus offers an end-to-end platform with all the data you need to get up to speed on a company or market: up-to-the-minute financials, customizable models, management and culture checks, and, of course, our vast and growing library of expert call transcripts. Tegus is changing the world of expert research. Learn more and get your free trial at tegus.com/patrick. ----- Invest Like the Best is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Invest Like the Best, visit joincolossus.com/episodes.  Past guests include Tobi Lutke, Kevin Systrom, Mike Krieger, John Collison, Kat Cole, Marc Andreessen, Matthew Ball, Bill Gurley, Anu Hariharan, Ben Thompson, and many more. Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. Follow us on Twitter: @patrick_oshag | @JoinColossus Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Show Notes: (00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like the Best (00:03:38) Dissecting the Dynamics of AI, LLMs, and Market Disruption (00:05:06) The World of AI Investments and Market Trends (00:08:13) Integration of New Technologies in Business (00:15:27) The Power of Increasing Returns and Strategic Investments (00:22:26) Unpacking the Role of Intangibles in Scaling and Innovation (00:28:54) Transformative Potential of Open Source and Idea Recombination (00:34:42) The Complex Landscape of Regulation and Innovation (00:43:17) Today's Venture Capital Ecosystem (00:47:08) Impact of Fewer IPOs and Private Market Dynamics (00:50:38) Capital Allocation in Zero Interest Rate Environments (00:54:44) The Evolution of Venture Capital and High-Stakes Investment Games (00:57:21) Exploring New Frontiers: AI, Energy, and Physical World Innovations (01:01:14) The Power of Learning by Doing (01:17:49) Working with Genius (01:26:47) The Value of Teaching, Writing, and Sharing Knowledge

Invest Like the Best Key Takeaways  The question to consider: Does AI help the strong get stronger, or does AI allow for new businesses to emerge and disrupt the incumbents? The top five technology companies are spending 2x on capital expenditure than the top five energy companies Companies should strive to increase the consumer's willingness to pay“Regulation is the friend of the incumbent.” – Bill Gurley Venture capital is one of the few asset classes that has high persistence: the past winners tend to be future winnersDevelop a framework that allows you to benefit from the group dynamics of pattern recognition, but that does not tie you to one specific type of pattern Instead of nit-picking how an investment may fail, make the primary focus of the discussion: “How big could this be?” Investors must capture the extreme events if they wish to outperform The sharpest minds desire to know where they are wrong about something Read the full notes @ podcastnotes.orgMy guests today are Bill Gurley and Michael Mauboussin. Bill is a General Partner at Benchmark, and Michael is the Head of Consilient Research for Counterpoint Global. While they are longtime friends with one another, I'd never heard them appear somewhere together so it was a real treat to be able to do this with the two of them. They are two of the leading minds in their fields, and we combined their decades of expertise into one wide-ranging conversation. We discuss the different kinds of increasing returns to scale, the issue of regulatory capture, AI, and hardware. Please enjoy this great conversation with Bill Gurley and Michael Mauboussin. Listen to Founders Podcast For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here. ----- This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the only investment research platform built for the investor. With traditional research vendors, the diligence process is slow, fragmented, and expensive. That leaves investors competing on how well they can aggregate data — not on their unique ability to analyze insights and make great investment decisions. Tegus offers an end-to-end platform with all the data you need to get up to speed on a company or market: up-to-the-minute financials, customizable models, management and culture checks, and, of course, our vast and growing library of expert call transcripts. Tegus is changing the world of expert research. Learn more and get your free trial at tegus.com/patrick. ----- Invest Like the Best is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Invest Like the Best, visit joincolossus.com/episodes.  Past guests include Tobi Lutke, Kevin Systrom, Mike Krieger, John Collison, Kat Cole, Marc Andreessen, Matthew Ball, Bill Gurley, Anu Hariharan, Ben Thompson, and many more. Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. Follow us on Twitter: @patrick_oshag | @JoinColossus Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Show Notes: (00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like the Best (00:03:38) Dissecting the Dynamics of AI, LLMs, and Market Disruption (00:05:06) The World of AI Investments and Market Trends (00:08:13) Integration of New Technologies in Business (00:15:27) The Power of Increasing Returns and Strategic Investments (00:22:26) Unpacking the Role of Intangibles in Scaling and Innovation (00:28:54) Transformative Potential of Open Source and Idea Recombination (00:34:42) The Complex Landscape of Regulation and Innovation (00:43:17) Today's Venture Capital Ecosystem (00:47:08) Impact of Fewer IPOs and Private Market Dynamics (00:50:38) Capital Allocation in Zero Interest Rate Environments (00:54:44) The Evolution of Venture Capital and High-Stakes Investment Games (00:57:21) Exploring New Frontiers: AI, Energy, and Physical World Innovations (01:01:14) The Power of Learning by Doing (01:17:49) Working with Genius (01:26:47) The Value of Teaching, Writing, and Sharing Knowledge

My guests today are Bill Gurley and Michael Mauboussin. Bill is a General Partner at Benchmark, and Michael is the Head of Consilient Research for Counterpoint Global. While they are longtime friends with one another, I'd never heard them appear somewhere together so it was a real treat to be able to do this with the two of them. They are two of the leading minds in their fields, and we combined their decades of expertise into one wide-ranging conversation. We discuss the different kinds of increasing returns to scale, the issue of regulatory capture, AI, and hardware. Please enjoy this great conversation with Bill Gurley and Michael Mauboussin. Listen to Founders Podcast For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here. ----- This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the only investment research platform built for the investor. With traditional research vendors, the diligence process is slow, fragmented, and expensive. That leaves investors competing on how well they can aggregate data — not on their unique ability to analyze insights and make great investment decisions. Tegus offers an end-to-end platform with all the data you need to get up to speed on a company or market: up-to-the-minute financials, customizable models, management and culture checks, and, of course, our vast and growing library of expert call transcripts. Tegus is changing the world of expert research. Learn more and get your free trial at tegus.com/patrick. ----- Invest Like the Best is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Invest Like the Best, visit joincolossus.com/episodes.  Past guests include Tobi Lutke, Kevin Systrom, Mike Krieger, John Collison, Kat Cole, Marc Andreessen, Matthew Ball, Bill Gurley, Anu Hariharan, Ben Thompson, and many more. Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. Follow us on Twitter: @patrick_oshag | @JoinColossus Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Show Notes: (00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like the Best (00:03:38) Dissecting the Dynamics of AI, LLMs, and Market Disruption (00:05:06) The World of AI Investments and Market Trends (00:08:13) Integration of New Technologies in Business (00:15:27) The Power of Increasing Returns and Strategic Investments (00:22:26) Unpacking the Role of Intangibles in Scaling and Innovation (00:28:54) Transformative Potential of Open Source and Idea Recombination (00:34:42) The Complex Landscape of Regulation and Innovation (00:43:17) Today's Venture Capital Ecosystem (00:47:08) Impact of Fewer IPOs and Private Market Dynamics (00:50:38) Capital Allocation in Zero Interest Rate Environments (00:54:44) The Evolution of Venture Capital and High-Stakes Investment Games (00:57:21) Exploring New Frontiers: AI, Energy, and Physical World Innovations (01:01:14) The Power of Learning by Doing (01:17:49) Working with Genius (01:26:47) The Value of Teaching, Writing, and Sharing Knowledge

Michael Mauboussin is the Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, a $70 billion equity manager. Michael is renowned for his ability to articulate important investment concepts backed by academic research. His first of three prior conversations on the show is replayed in the feed. You can find the rest at capitalallocators.com. Our conversation explores Michael's most recent piece on pattern recognition, including when it works and when it doesn't. We then transition to discussing the changing nature of public markets, inspired by another of Michael's recent research reports entitled Birth, Death, and Wealth Creation. Learn More Follow Ted on Twitter at @tseides or LinkedIn Subscribe to the mailing list Access Transcript with Premium Membership

Is contrarian investing a solid strategy, or a fool's errand? In this episode, Barry Ritholtz discusses the issue with Michael J. Mauboussin. Mauboussin is Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, Morgan Stanley Investment Management. Previously, he was Director of Research at BlueMountain Capital, Head of Global Financial Strategies at Credit Suisse, and Chief Investment Strategist at Legg Mason Capital Management.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Is it better to be lucky or good? How much of a role does luck pay in investing? And how can you tell the difference between chance and skill? In this episode of At the Money, Barry Ritholtz discusses the issue with Michael J. Mauboussin. Mauboussin is Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, Morgan Stanley Investment Management. Previously, he was Director of Research at BlueMountain Capital, Head of Global Financial Strategies at Credit Suisse, and Chief Investment Strategist at Legg Mason Capital Management.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In his report ‘Birth, Death, and Wealth Creation', Michael Mauboussin observes and then claims that corporations are surviving longer and winning more.  This week, we welcome Michael Mauboussin, Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, to discuss the unique patterns of wealth creation in  public equity markets.  After explaining the similarities between ice hockey and investing, Michael discusses why corporate ‘death rate' is higher than firms' ‘birth rates. He describes why firms are increasingly choosing forgo IPOs, opting to stay private for longer.  He also covers Hendrick Bessembinder's theory of wealth destruction, the distinction between value investing and value factors, and why investors may want to look beyond the headlines when it comes to tech. Michael Mauboussin was interviewed by Simon Brewer at the Quality-Growth Investor Conference in London. The next in-person event to be held by the organizers of the conference will be Value Invest New York on December 12. Use this link and enter “MONEYMAZE_VINY” at checkout to enjoy a 40% discount on tickets (worth $600; offer valid until 30th November 2023).  The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored by Schroders, Bremont Watches, IFM Investors and LiveTrade. Sign up to our Newsletter | Follow us on LinkedIn | Watch on YouTube

How can companies get revenue forecasting and value creation right? By slowing down. Michael Mauboussin, head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, and Rob Markey discuss the metrics and methods businesses can use to grow their long-term value. Make sure to listen to part two. ·        Get your copy of Michael's book, Expectations Investing, here. ·        Read Michael's Harvard Business Review article “The True Measures of Success” here. ·       Read more from Michael about the economics of customer business here. If you'd like to learn more about Michael, you can find him on LinkedIn. To offer feedback or share ideas about the show, please fill out our survey here. 

Investing in customer happiness can be the surest way to high Net Promoter Scores. But how do you accomplish that while maintaining a healthy business? Michael Mauboussin, head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, and Rob Markey discuss how expectations investing impacts valuations and business growth. The two also share insights on how companies can build a long-term investment strategy that can withstand changes in the market while attracting and retaining loyal customers. Get your copy of Michael's book, Expectations Investing, here. If you'd like to learn more about Michael, you can find him on LinkedIn. If you'd like to offer feedback or share ideas about the show, please fill out our survey here. 

Brought to you by Athletic Greens's AG1 all-in-one nutritional supplement, House of Macadamias delicious and nutritious nuts, and Shopify global commerce platform providing tools to start, grow, market, and manage a retail business. Michael Mauboussin (@mjmauboussin) is Head of Consilient Research on Counterpoint Global at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.Prior to joining Counterpoint Global, Michael was Director of Research at BlueMountain Capital, Head of Global Financial Strategies at Credit Suisse, and Chief Investment Strategist at Legg Mason Capital Management. Michael originally joined Credit Suisse in 1992 as a packaged food industry analyst and was named Chief U.S. Investment Strategist in 1999.Michael is the author of The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing, Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition, and More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places. More Than You Know was named one of "The 100 Best Business Books of All Time" by 800-CEO-READ, one of the best business books by BusinessWeek (2006), and best economics book by Strategy+Business (2006). Michael is also co-author, with Alfred Rappaport, of Expectations Investing: Reading Stock Prices for Better Returns. Michael has been an adjunct professor of finance at Columbia Business School since 1993 and is on the faculty of the Heilbrunn Center for Graham and Dodd Investing. He received the Dean's Award for Teaching Excellence in 2009 and 2016 and the Graham & Dodd, Murray, Greenwald Prize for Value Investing in 2021.Michael earned an A.B. from Georgetown University. He is chairman emeritus of the board of trustees of the Santa Fe Institute, a leading center for multidisciplinary research in complex systems theory.Please enjoy!This episode is brought to you by Shopify! Shopify is one of my favorite platforms and one of my favorite companies. Shopify is designed for anyone to sell anywhere, giving entrepreneurs the resources once reserved for big business. In no time flat, you can have a great-looking online store that brings your ideas to life, and you can have the tools to manage your day-to-day and drive sales. No coding or design experience required.Go to shopify.com/Tim to sign up for a one-dollar-per-month trial period. It's a great deal for a great service, so I encourage you to check it out. Take your business to the next level today by visiting shopify.com/Tim.*This episode is also brought to you by House of Macadamias delicious and nutritious nuts! I love macadamia nuts and have been enjoying them often since keto expert Dr. Dominic D'Agostino recommended them on the podcast in 2015. They taste great, and with more healthy, monounsaturated fat than both olive oil and avocados, 27% fewer carbs than almonds, and more than 50% fewer carbs than cashews, they're the perfect low-carb, keto-friendly, nutty snack. In fact, I just ate a handful of lightly white-chocolate-covered macadamias about an hour ago to keep me going through the afternoon until dinner. And I will say this: ​House of Macadamias produces the best-tasting macadamia nuts I've ever eaten… by far.Listeners of The Tim Ferriss Show can use code TIM20 to get 20% off all orders, plus, for a limited time, a free, premium, extra-virgin, cold-pressed macadamia oil with any order, valued at $20. Visit HouseOfMacadamias.com/Tim to discover some of the most delicious and nutritious nuts on the planet.*This episode is also brought to you by Athletic Greens. I get asked all the time, “If you could use only one supplement, what would it be?” My answer is usually AG1 by Athletic Greens, my all-in-one nutritional insurance. I recommended it in The 4-Hour Body in 2010 and did not get paid to do so. I do my best with nutrient-dense meals, of course, but AG further covers my bases with vitamins, minerals, and whole-food-sourced micronutrients that support gut health and the immune system. Right now, Athletic Greens is offering you their Vitamin D Liquid Formula free with your first subscription purchase—a vital nutrient for a strong immune system and strong bones. Visit AthleticGreens.com/Tim to claim this special offer today and receive the free Vitamin D Liquid Formula (and 5 free travel packs) with your first subscription purchase! That's up to a one-year supply of Vitamin D as added value when you try their delicious and comprehensive all-in-one daily greens product.*[07:12] Latin roots.[09:14] No business education? No problem![12:15] The best food industry analyst.[15:36] Consilience.[19:58] Complex adaptive systems.[23:26] Diversity.[26:23] The wisdom of crowds.[32:42] The minimum effective dose of cognitive diversity.[36:02] Designing experiments.[43:49] Against the Gods and Complexity.[49:56] Value investing and the Santa Fe Institute.[53:57] A brief 21st-century asset class tour.[57:47] Base rates and horses.[1:06:16] Good vs. great investors.[1:13:22] Expanding options when making decisions.[1:18:56] Favorite failures.[1:20:35] Counteracting overreliance on experts.[1:24:34] Intuition.[1:34:15] Time management tenets.[1:40:59] Parental resources.[1:43:42] Perspectives gained by learning about complex adaptive systems.[1:46:12] Recommended reading.[1:47:32] Michael's billboard.[1:50:33] Parting thoughts.*For show notes and past guests on The Tim Ferriss Show, please visit tim.blog/podcast.For deals from sponsors of The Tim Ferriss Show, please visit tim.blog/podcast-sponsorsSign up for Tim's email newsletter (5-Bullet Friday) at tim.blog/friday.For transcripts of episodes, go to tim.blog/transcripts.Discover Tim's books: tim.blog/books.Follow Tim:Twitter: twitter.com/tferriss Instagram: instagram.com/timferrissYouTube: youtube.com/timferrissFacebook: facebook.com/timferriss LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/timferrissPast guests on The Tim Ferriss Show include Jerry Seinfeld, Hugh Jackman, Dr. Jane Goodall, LeBron James, Kevin Hart, Doris Kearns Goodwin, Jamie Foxx, Matthew McConaughey, Esther Perel, Elizabeth Gilbert, Terry Crews, Sia, Yuval Noah Harari, Malcolm Gladwell, Madeleine Albright, Cheryl Strayed, Jim Collins, Mary Karr, Maria Popova, Sam Harris, Michael Phelps, Bob Iger, Edward Norton, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Neil Strauss, Ken Burns, Maria Sharapova, Marc Andreessen, Neil Gaiman, Neil de Grasse Tyson, Jocko Willink, Daniel Ek, Kelly Slater, Dr. Peter Attia, Seth Godin, Howard Marks, Dr. Brené Brown, Eric Schmidt, Michael Lewis, Joe Gebbia, Michael Pollan, Dr. Jordan Peterson, Vince Vaughn, Brian Koppelman, Ramit Sethi, Dax Shepard, Tony Robbins, Jim Dethmer, Dan Harris, Ray Dalio, Naval Ravikant, Vitalik Buterin, Elizabeth Lesser, Amanda Palmer, Katie Haun, Sir Richard Branson, Chuck Palahniuk, Arianna Huffington, Reid Hoffman, Bill Burr, Whitney Cummings, Rick Rubin, Dr. Vivek Murthy, Darren Aronofsky, Margaret Atwood, Mark Zuckerberg, Peter Thiel, Dr. Gabor Maté, Anne Lamott, Sarah Silverman, Dr. Andrew Huberman, and many more.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

What are the 10 attributes of great investors? According to Michael J. Mauboussin in his paper on investing, there are a number of qualities and skills you can acquire, that'll improve your performance as an investor. Mauboussin is the Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, a multi-book author and a Professor at Columbia. Tune in as Owen & Kate break down each of these items, and include examples, quotes and action steps, so you to can invest like the best! Paper that inspired this episode: Reflections on the Ten Attributes of Great Investors Ready-made ETF portfolios? Rask Core has you covered! Take one of our amazing money & investing courses (think ETFs, shares, property and FIRE) on Rask Education. ASK A QUESTION: https://bit.ly/3QtiY00 If you want to thank us for putting this show together, please give The Australian Finance Podcast a 5 star review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify - it's a 5 second task which really helps support the show (and puts a big smile on our faces). Pearler, the broker for long-term investors. Sign-up to Pearler using the code “RASK” for $15 of Pearler Credit: bit.ly/Pearler We're proudly supported by Global X ETFs. Learn more about the growing range of leading ETFs, on the Global X website: https://bit.ly/gx-funds Boost your investment potential, with FundLater. With InvestSMART's Fundlater, you can start a $10,000 investment portfolio, with only $4,000 upfront. Find out how: rask.com.au/inv-fundlater Investing Made Simple. Thanks to InvestSMART's ready-made ETF portfolios, you can start investing now in a portfolio managed by experts. Not only that, you can invest confidently knowing your investment fees are capped. Learn more: rask.com.au/inv-pma DISCLAIMER: This podcast contains general financial information only. That means the information does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Because of that, you should consider if the information is appropriate to you and your needs, before acting on it. If you're confused about what that means or what your needs are, you should always consult a licensed and trusted financial planner. Unfortunately, we cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information in this podcast, including any financial, taxation, and/or legal information. Remember, past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The Rask Group is NOT a qualified tax accountant, financial (tax) adviser, or financial adviser. Full individual disclosures for each guest are available via the show notes page. Owen, Kate and The Rask Group Pty Ltd do NOT receive anything for mentioning Super funds, products, shares, bank accounts, etc. Access The Rask Group's Financial Services Guide (FSG): https://www.rask.com.au/fsg Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

My guest this week is Michael Mauboussin. Many of you will know Michael and his work well. He's Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, one of the sharpest investment minds I know, and a frequent guest on this show. In this discussion, we go deep into his recent work on market share, returns on capital, and capital allocation - all of which are coming under increasing scrutiny for different reasons. Please enjoy this great conversation with my friend Michael Mauboussin.   Listen to Founders podcast   Founders Episode #136 A Success Story: Estee Lauder    Invest Like the Best with David Senra: Passion & Pain   For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here. -----   This episode is brought to you by Tegus. Tegus streamlines the investment research process so you can get up to speed and find answers to critical questions on companies faster and more efficiently. The Tegus platform surfaces the hard-to-get qualitative insights, gives instant access to critical public financial data through BamSEC, and helps you set up customized expert calls. It's all done on a single, modern SaaS platform that offers 360-degree insight into any public or private company. I've been so impressed by the platform that my firm, Positive Sum, recently made an investment in Tegus. We did so because we feel that Tegus will be the gold standard platform for investing research for decades to come. As a listener, you can take Tegus for a free test drive by visiting tegus.co/patrick.   -----   Today's episode is brought to you by Brex. Brex is the integrated financial platform trusted by the world's most innovative entrepreneurs and fastest-growing companies. With Brex, you can move money fast for instant impact with high-limit corporate cards, payments, venture debt, and spend management software all in one place. Ready to accelerate your business? Learn more at brex.com/best.   -----   Invest Like the Best is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Invest Like the Best, visit joincolossus.com/episodes.    Past guests include Tobi Lutke, Kevin Systrom, Mike Krieger, John Collison, Kat Cole, Marc Andreessen, Matthew Ball, Bill Gurley, Anu Hariharan, Ben Thompson, and many more.   Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter: @patrick_oshag | @JoinColossus   Show Notes [00:03:46] - [First question] - Overview of Michael's recent research on market share [00:05:48] - Market share dynamics in modern history [00:08:43] - How market share data is useful for investors [00:12:30] - Investing in early breakout companies from low-concentration markets [00:14:34] - Surprises from his recent research project [00:15:29] - Using the value stick for stakeholder satisfaction [00:19:12] - Examples of value creation using the value stick [00:23:33] - Market power in relation to markups and willingness to pay [00:32:00] - Identifying a company's real ROIC numbers [00:44:00] - How important absolute ROIC is when picking investments [00:47:07] - Research on capital generation and allocation trends [00:54:25] - Characteristics of great capital allocation strategies [00:59:26] - Surprises in the market since his deep-dive research [01:02:54] - Artificial intelligence and other sources of disruptive innovation

Michael Mauboussin is Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global. Previously, he was Director of Research at BlueMountain Capital, Head of Global Financial Strategies at Credit Suisse, and Chief Investment Strategist at Legg Mason Capital Management. He is also the author of three incredible books, including More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places, named in The 100 Best Business Books of All Time by 800-CEO-Read. Michael has taught at Columbia Business School since 1993 and received the Dean's Award for Teaching Excellence in 2009 and 2016. In Today's Episode with Michael Mauboussin We Discuss: 1.) Entry into Venture and Finance: What does Michael actually do as "Head of Consilient Research"? What does Michael know now that he wishes he had known when he entered finance? How did Michael and Bill Gurley meet in business school? What does Michael believe makes Bill such a special investor today? 2.) Booms and Busts: How This Compares? How does the current macro downturn compare to prior crashes Michael has worked through? What is the same? What is different? How do political and health events impact the macro? Why was 1987 the end of the world at the time? How did the recovery take place? How does Michael analyze the duration of bull markets vs the duration of recovery time? What advice does Michael give to young people today questioning if they are good investors? 3.) The Investment Decision-Making Process: How does Michael advise on the structuring of your decision-making process? What makes a good process vs a bad process? What can be done to remove politics from the decision-making process? What can be done to ensure all people, regardless of hierarchy feel safe in the process and feel they can share their thoughts without repercussions? What are the single biggest mistakes Michael sees people make in their decision-making process? How do you know when is the right time to change your process? 4.) Everything is a DCF: What does Michael mean when he says that "everything is a DCF"? How does Michael advise and apply this thinking to early-stage venture investors? How does Michael think through highly diversified portfolios vs super concentrated portfolios in venture? Items Mentioned in Today's Episode: Michael's Favourite Book: Consilience: The Unity of Knowledge by E.O Wilson

Michael Mauboussin is an adjunct professor of finance at the Columbia Business School and the Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, Morgan Stanley Investment Management. Bill Mann interviewed Mauboussin in front of a live audience about a range of investing topics, including: - The approach of "expectations investing" and how to apply it - Why a company's base case for growth is so important - Peloton's faulty growth predictions - Businesses with real option value   Companies mentioned: SBUX, PTON, AMZN, GOOG, GOOGL, WMT, TGT   Host: Bill Mann Guest: Michael Mauboussin Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Tim Sparks

Today's episode features Michael Mauboussin reading his piece, Everything Is a DCF Model. Michael is Head of Consilient Research on Counterpoint Global at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. He joined Morgan Stanley in 2020 and has 33 years of investment experience. The Best Investment Writing series features top research pieces that we've shared via The Idea Farm in the past year. Subscribe here so you get these sent to you each week. Check out the past series of The Best Investment Writing below: Volume 5 Volume 4 Volume 3 Volume 2 Volume 1 ----- Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Today's episode is sponsored by Stream by AlphaSense. Stream is an expert transcript library used by people just like you to quickly perform preliminary diligence on new ideas related to their target companies in the tech, media, telecom, healthcare, consumer and industrial sectors; avoiding the time, hassle, and cost of traditional expert network calls.  With over 15,000 on-demand expert call interviews, 100+ new transcripts added each day, AI smart search technology, and 70% of our experts unique to our network, it's no wonder the world's leading financial firms choose Stream. Sponsor dollars for the entire Best Investment Writing series are being donated to the charity of the guest's choice. Today's sponsor dollars are being donated to the Santa Fe Institute on behalf of Michael Mauboussin. ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.  ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! 

Michael Mauboussin is the author of The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing, Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition, and More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places. Michael is currently Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global. Michael has also held roles as Director of Research at BlueMountain Capital Management, he was a Managing Director and Head of Global Financial Strategies at Credit Suisse, and he was Chief Investment Strategist at Legg Mason Capital Management. Mr. Mauboussin has been an adjunct professor of finance at Columbia Business School since 1993 and currently is Chairman of the Board of Trustees for the Sante Fe Institute. Checkout the Show Notes from Michael's Episode & Reading List Transcript   Watch my Persistent Patterns of Greatness Master Class  You Unleashed Course  50% off You Unleashed is an online personal development course created by Sean DeLaney after spending years working with an interviewing high achievers.The online course that helps you ‘Unleash your potential'! You Unleashed teaches you the MINDSETS, ROUTINES and BEHAVIORS you need to unleash your potential and discover what you're capable of. You know you're capable of more and want to bring out that untapped potential inside of you. We teach you how. Enroll Today & Receive 50% off by using code “WGYT”- Click Here Subscribe to my Momentum Monday Newsletter Connect with us! Whatgotyouthere TikTok YouTube Twitter Instagram 

‘Populism has taught us that politics is not just about being technocrats and that politicians cannot just govern through Excel spreadsheets.' In this episode, Manas Chawla interviews Dr Catherine Fieschi about her encounters with Jean-Marie and Marine Le Pen and the factors that have led to the latter's mainstreaming. She also discusses with Manas the decomposition of the French party system since Emmanuel Macron came to office in 2016, as well as the lessons that populism can teach us about the role of the state and the meaning of politics. Dr Fieschi's extensive research into populism makes for a very insightful conversation about the populist wave and the ways in which it alters traditional perceptions of politics. Dr Fieschi is the founder and executive director of Counterpoint Global, a research and advisory group that helps businesses, governments, and NGOs navigate a new age of social and political risk. She is also a senior advisor at Macro Advisory Partners and a former director of the think tank Demos. Her published work includes Populocracy: The Tyranny of Authenticity and the Rise of Populism and Fascism, Populism and the French Fifth Republic: In the Shadow of Democracy.

This week we're speaking to Michael Mauboussin. Michael is head of consilient research at Counterpoint Global, as well as a prolific author and professor at Columbia Business School. We discuss the basics of security valuation, why using simple multiples is not valuation, how intangibles have reshaped valuation, market efficiency, good losses vs bad losses, and a framework for understanding sources of inefficiency. This episode is packed with insight and investing goodies which I am sure all listeners will value!

Recently at Lux in New York City, Josh Wolfe invited three celebrated decision and risk specialists for a lunch to discuss the latest academic research and empirical insights from the world of psychology and decision sciences. Our lunch included Danny Kahneman, who won the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics for his work on decision sciences. His book Thinking Fast and Slow has been a major bestseller and summarizes much of his work in the field. We also had Annie Duke, a World Series of Poker champion who researches cognitive psychology at the University of Pennsylvania. Her books How to Decide and Thinking in Bets have also been tremendously influential best sellers, and she is also the co-founder of the Alliance for Decision Education. Also joining us was Michael Mauboussin, the Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global and who has also taught finance for decades at Columbia. His book More Than You Know is similarly a major bestseller. In the fourth and final segment of our risk, bias and decision making lunch, Josh Wolfe, Annie Duke, Danny Kahneman and Michael Mauboussin discuss the phenomenon of the so-called “hot hand,” the idea that a basketball player or an investor can have a streak of good luck that allows them to actually increase the odds of success on their future plays.

Recently at Lux in New York City, Josh Wolfe invited three celebrated decision and risk specialists for a lunch to discuss the latest academic research and empirical insights from the world of psychology and decision sciences. Our lunch included Danny Kahneman, who won the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics for his work on decision sciences. His book Thinking Fast and Slow has been a major bestseller and summarizes much of his work in the field. We also had Annie Duke, a World Series of Poker champion who researches cognitive psychology at the University of Pennsylvania. Her books How to Decide and Thinking in Bets have also been tremendously influential best sellers, and she is also the co-founder of the Alliance for Decision Education. Also joining us was Michael Mauboussin, the Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global and who has also taught finance for decades at Columbia. His book More Than You Know is similarly a major bestseller. In part three of our risk, bias and decision making lunch, Annie Duke, Michael Mauboussin, Danny Kahneman, and Josh Wolfe discuss optimism, base rates, overcoming negative expected values, population versus individual risks, calibrating risk assessments, and infectious amplification of optimism within groups.

Recently at Lux in New York City, Josh Wolfe invited three celebrated decision and risk specialists for a lunch to discuss the latest academic research and empirical insights from the world of psychology and decision sciences. Our lunch included Danny Kahneman, who won the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics for his work on decision sciences. His book Thinking Fast and Slow has been a major bestseller and summarizes much of his work in the field. We also had Annie Duke, a World Series of Poker champion who researches cognitive psychology at the University of Pennsylvania. Her books How to Decide and Thinking in Bets have also been tremendously influential best sellers, and she is also the co-founder of the Alliance for Decision Education. Also joining us was Michael Mauboussin, the Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global and who has also taught finance for decades at Columbia. His book More Than You Know is similarly a major bestseller. In part two of our risk, bias and decision making lunch, Danny Kahneman, Annie Duke and Josh Wolfe discuss whether people change their minds, particularly on subjects that matter, why people care about dissonance reduction, and what circumstances lead people to changing their minds at all.

Recently at Lux in New York City, Josh Wolfe invited three celebrated decision and risk specialists for a lunch to discuss the latest academic research and empirical insights from the world of psychology and decision sciences. Our lunch included Danny Kahneman, who won the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics for his work on decision sciences. His book Thinking Fast and Slow has been a major bestseller and summarizes much of his work in the field. We also had Annie Duke, a World Series of Poker champion who researches cognitive psychology at the University of Pennsylvania. Her books How to Decide and Thinking in Bets have also been tremendously influential best sellers, and she is also the co-founder of the Alliance for Decision Education. Also joining us was Michael Mauboussin, the Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global and who has also taught finance for decades at Columbia. His book More Than You Know is similarly a major bestseller. This is an edited four-part series from our lunch seminar, with each part covering one topic of the conversation for easier listening. In this first part, we discuss the concept of pre-mortems, an approach of looking at the outcome of our decision and if it were to fail, why we think it would fail. It's an approach that's designed to overcome groupthink and avoid the fact that pessimists are really unpopular in group decision-making sessions. However, recent research has shown that they don't always help people and groups change their mind. We look at pre-mortems, prospective hindsight, legitimizing dissent, self-serving bias and pre-parade or backcasts to see how this tool can affect and improve decision-making given the most recent academic literature.

Our guest this week is Michael Mauboussin. Michael is the head of consilient research at Counterpoint Global. Before joining Counterpoint Global in January 2020, Michael was director of research at BlueMountain Capital Management and prior to that held research leadership roles at Credit Suisse and Legg Mason Capital Management. Michael is the author of three books including The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing and is also coauthor with Alfred Rappaport of Expectations Investing: Reading Stock Prices for Better Returns. He has been an adjunct professor of finance at Columbia Business School since 1993 and is on the faculty of the Heilbrunn Center for Graham & Dodd Investing. Michael is also chairman emeritus of the board of trustees of the Santa Fe Institute. He received his bachelor's degree from Georgetown University.BackgroundBioThe Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing, by Michael MauboussinExpectations Investing: Reading Stock Prices for Better Returns, by Michael Mauboussin and Alfred RappaportMore Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places, by Michael MauboussinConsilienceConsilience: The Unity of Knowledge, by Edward O. Wilson“Charlie Munger's System of Mental Models: How to Think Your Way to Success,” by Andrew McVagh, mymentalmodels.info.com, Aug. 7, 2018.“Increasing Returns and the New World of Business,” by W. Brian Arthur, harvardbusinessreview.com, July-August 1996.Santa Fe Institute“Why Foxes Make Better Decisions Than Hedgehogs,” by Kevin Sookocheff, sookocheff.com, July 15, 2021.Jonathan Baron, Professor, University of PennsylvaniaActive Fund Success“Turn and Face the Strange: Overcoming Barriers to Change in Sports and Investing,” by Michael Mauboussin and Dan Callahan, morganstanley.com, Sept. 8, 2021.“Dispersion and Alpha Conversion: How Dispersion Creates the Opportunity to Express Skill,” by Michael Mauboussin and Dan Callahan, morganstanley.com, April 14, 2020.Fundamental Law of Active Management“The ‘Paradox of Skill' Adds to Active Management Woes,” by Christine Idzelis, institutionalinvestor.com, Sept. 17, 2020.Triumph and Tragedy in Mudville: A Lifelong Passion for Baseball, by Stephen Jay Gould“Looking for Easy Games in Bonds,” by Michael Mauboussin, bluemountaincapital.com, April 16, 2019.“Do Individual Day Traders Make Money? Evidence From Taiwan,” by Brad Barber, Yi-Tsung Lee, Yu-Jane Liu, and Terrance Odean, Berkeley.edu, May 2004.Expectations InvestingCreating Shareholder Value: A Guide for Managers and Investors, by Alfred Rappaport“Market-Expected Return on Investment: Bridging Accounting and Valuation,” by Michael Mauboussin and Dan Callahan, morganstanely.com, April 14, 2021.Security Analysis course taught by Michael Mauboussin at Columbia Business School“The Math of Value and Growth: Growth, Return on Capital, and the Discount Rate,” by Michael Mauboussin and Dan Callahan, morganstanely.com, June 9, 2020.“Public to Private Equity in the United States: A Long-Term Look,” by Michael Mauboussin and Dan Callahan, morganstanley.com, Aug. 4, 2020.“How the Parting of Two Market Forces Helped Spur the Equity Rally,” by Michael Mauboussin, ft.com, Feb. 8, 2021.Business Quality and Capital Allocation“Thoughts on Cost of Capital and Buffet's $1 Test--Part 1,” by John Huber, sabercapitalmgt.com, Oct. 30, 2017.“Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)--Michael Mauboussin on Investment Concepts,” anthenarium.com.“Michael Mauboussin on Capital Allocation and Value Creation,” anthenarium.com, Nov. 29, 2019.“Chancellor: Tech Growth Comes at Irrational Price,” by Edward Chancellor, reuters.com, Sept. 9, 2021.“Categorizing for Clarity: Cash Flow Statement Adjustments to Improve Insight,” by Michael Mauboussin and Dan Callahan, morganstanley.com, Oct. 6, 2021.Other and Recommended ReadingAswath Damodaran, Professor of Finance, Stern School of BusinessThe Psychology of Money: Timeless Lessons on Wealth, Greed, and Happiness, by Morgan HouselThe Warren Buffett Way, by Robert HagstromWarren Buffett: Inside the Ultimate Money Mind, by Robert HagstromRicher, Wiser, Happier: How the World's Greatest Inventors Win in Markets and Life, by William Green

Saurabh Madaan, Managing Member of Manveen Asset Management, and Michael Mauboussin, Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, joined members for a fireside chat at Latticework on December 15, 2021. Saurabh and Michael explored the topic, “Expectations Investing as Applied to Growth Businesses”. Michael is co-author with Al Rappaport of the revised and updated edition of Expectations Investing: Reading Stock Prices for Better Returns.   The primary purpose of this podcast is to educate and inform. The views, information, or opinions expressed by hosts or guests are their own. Neither this show, nor any of its content should be construed as investment advice or as a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security. Security specific information shared on this podcast should not be relied upon as a basis for your own investment decisions -- be sure to do your own research. The podcast hosts and participants may have a position in the securities mentioned, personally, through sub accounts and/or through separate funds and may change their holdings at any time.   About the session host: Saurabh Madaan serves as Managing Member of Manveen Asset Management, based in Glen Allen, Virginia. Prior to founding Manveen Asset Management, Saurabh was a Managing Director and Deputy Chief Investment Officer at Markel Corporation (NYSE: MKL), where he worked closely with Markel's Co-Chief Executive Officer Tom Gayner. Saurabh also spent more than seven years at Google in various roles, including Senior Data Scientist, Engineering. Saurabh holds an MS degree in Engineering from the University of Pennsylvania. About the featured guest: Michael J. Mauboussin is Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global. Prior to joining Counterpoint Global in January 2020, he was Director of Research at BlueMountain Capital Management in New York. Before joining BlueMountain, he was a Managing Director and Head of Global Financial Strategies at Credit Suisse. Before rejoining Credit Suisse, he was Chief Investment Strategist at Legg Mason Capital Management from 2004-2012. Michael joined Credit Suisse in 1992 as a packaged food industry analyst and was named Chief U.S. Investment Strategist in 1999. Michael is the author of three books, including The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing and is also co-author, with Alfred Rappaport, of Expectations Investing: Reading Stock Prices for Better Returns. Michael has been an adjunct professor of finance at Columbia Business School since 1993 and is on the faculty of the Heilbrunn Center for Graham and Dodd Investing. He earned an A.B. from Georgetown University.

Michael Mauboussin is one of the most insightful long-term thinkers in the investing world. For decades, his research has taken deep dives into markets, valuation and how we can all become better long-term investors. He is currently Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global. We talk to Michael about a wide range of topics, including factor investing, the dangers of simple valuation multiples, the importance of intangible assets, the proper application of base rates and the process of expectations investing. We hope you enjoy the discussion. ABOUT THE PODCAST Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com FOLLOW OUR BLOG https://blog.validea.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Since our first podcast in the spring of 2019, we've built a wonderful audience around the world, and now have a terrific collection of interviews with remarkable investors.   I have loved the opportunity to host these interviews myself but from the very beginning, I felt that you would benefit from having another voice to challenge the guests and bring a different point of view to the podcast. That time has finally come.   As we start this new season, I couldn't think of a better person to join me as co-host than Michael Mauboussin, Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global. Michael is a colleague, a friend, and someone I admire enormously for his passion and ability to match academic research with the practical considerations of investing.   On our first episode together we're delighted to welcome Chase Sheridan and Will Pan of one of the great names in value investing, Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb.    Chase Sheridan joined Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb in June 2006 upon his graduation from Columbia Business School. Prior to attending Columbia, Chase was a senior vice president at Citadel Investment Group, a hedge fund based in Chicago and a partner at Q.E.D. Capital, an arbitrage firm based in Chicago. After interning with the firm in 2009, Will Pan was set on a career path with Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb. He joined the firm in 2010 after graduating from Harvard College.    On this episode, Chase, Will, Michael, and I discuss Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb's history and connection to Warren Buffett, why the Hyperion found was started, the team dynamic between Chase and Will as co-managers of the fund, their approach to idea sourcing and portfolio construction, and so much more!   Key Topics:   The history of Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb (RCG) (3:40) Chase's unusual path to RCG (6:37) How Chase became interested in value investing (8:36) Will's journey to RCG (10:18) The core of the RCG investment approach (13:52) Hyperion's maniacal focus on the intrinsic earnings power of a business (15:59) The relationship between RCG and Hyperion (17:26) The main difference between Hyperion and Sequoia (18:15) Why the RCG team considers themselves analysts first (19:45) The founding of Hyperion (21:30) Chase and Will's co-manager dynamic (23:18) Benefits of team management of a fund (25:30) Analyzing your trade ledger and thesis memos (26:52) RCG's writing and research culture (28:25) Hyperion's ideal investment characteristics (30:31) Idea sourcing at Hyperion (32:36) How Hyperion tackles due diligence (35:04) Focusing on intrinsic earnings power (38:56) The art of portfolio construction (41:46) Running scenarios on potential investments (44:05) The problem with portfolio managers emulating their idols (45:11) Understanding roll-ups (47:15) Why the vertical software industry is well-suited to consolidation (49:27) Where Constellation Software focuses on making their return (51:59) Constellation Software's framework for defensive acquisitions (54:15) What you need to know about Constellation Software (56:49) Mark Leonard's unique approach to acquisitions (58:53) An overview of Eurofins (1:01:17) Why consolidation makes sense for the testing industry (1:03:13) Gilles Martin's playbook for acquisitions (1:04:15) Why Hyperion became interested in Eurofins (1:07:42) The advantages of Eurofins having a founder CEO (1:08:56) The importance of leverage to Eurofins' growth (1:10:24) Will's recommended reading (1:12:43) What noise means for investors (1:14:14) Chase's recommended reading (1:15:15) And much more!   Mentioned in this Episode:   Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb Constellation Software Eurofins Scientific Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony & Cass R. Sunstein's Book | Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment Steve Brusatte's Book | The Rise and Fall of the Dinosaurs: A New History of a Lost World Walter Isaacson's Book | The Code Breaker: Jennifer Doudna, Gene Editing, and the Future of the Human Race Jeff Hawkins' Book | A Thousand Brains: A New Theory of Intelligence Edgar Wachenheim's Book | Common Stocks and Common Sense: The Strategies, Analyses, Decisions, and Emotions of a Particularly Successful Value Investor Jordan Ellenberg's Book | How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking Chip Heath & Dan Heath's Book | Switch: How to Change Things When Change Is Hard Jeff Bezos' Book | Invent and Wander: The Collected Writings of Jeff Bezos Mark Leonard's President Letters David Sklansky's Book | Getting the Best of It Bryce Carlson's Book | Blackjack for Blood: The Card-Counters' Bible and Complete Winning Guide Ralph Vince's Book | The Mathematics of Money Management: Risk Analysis Techniques for Traders   Thanks for Listening!   Be sure to subscribe on Apple, Google, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. And feel free to drop us a line at valueinvesting@gsb.columbia.edu.   Follow the Heilbrunn Center on social media on Instagram, LinkedIn, and more!

Databricks has raised $1.6B at a valuation of $38B from Counterpoint Global and others. The company aspires to build on its lead by investing in innovations that simplify AI and establish lakehouse as a modern replacement for traditional data warehousing.Walnut, a company helping sales teams manage their demo experience and reinvent sales experience, has raised $15 million in a Series A funding round led by Eight Roads Ventures to improve product demonstrations.OwnBackup, a cloud data protection platform provider, has acquired RevCult, a provider of Salesforce security and governance solutions and SaaS Security Posture Management (SSPM), to enhance its platform with proactive data security.Peak raises $75M in Series C from SoftBank Vision Fund 2 to fuel global expansion, open offices in the US and India and invest in R&D of its platform. Peak's Decision Intelligence software enables companies to embed AI into the core of their decision making to boost their operational efficiency across sales, marketing, demand management and supply chains .Rafay Systems raises $25M in Series B to hire engineers, grow sales, marketing and customer success teams and accelerate its strategic vision for its Kubernetes platform. It helps platform teams move beyond traditional Kubernetes cluster management to streamlined Kubernetes operations for modern applications.Apna, a job-search and professional networking site, is on the cusp of becoming India's fastest tech firm first unicorn. Apna is building a scalable networking infrastructure to connect low-skilled workers with relevant employers and help them find work.Rattle, a BizOps automation & orchestration platform, has announced that it has raised $2.8 million in a seed funding round co-led by Lightspeed and Sequoia Capital India.Octane, a software billing firm, has secured $2M at a valuation of $10M post-money. The funds will be used to hire engineers and product, marketing & sales personnel. Octane collaborates with a wide range of businesses, notably in the infrastructure and depth gauge industries.Harri, a service-oriented employee experience platform, has received growth funding from Golub Capital as part of a bigger funding round. Harri plans to use the capital to capitalize on the excellent momentum in the large corporate market and expand into other markets.

My guest today is Dennis Lynch, Head of Counterpoint Global, where he oversees over $100bn in AUM and boasts one of the strongest track records of any public investor. In our conversation, we cover Dennis's unique approach to building a research team, how misclassification of companies often creates the highest upside opportunities, and how Dennis has adapted his investment process over the past 20 years. I think Dennis defines what it means to be intellectually honest, and you will hear that in his answers throughout our discussion. I hope you enjoy my conversation with Dennis Lynch.   For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page here.   (for me-  )   ------ This episode is brought to you by Tegus. Tegus has built the most extensive primary information platform available for investors.   With Tegus, you can learn everything you’d want to know about a company in an on-demand digital platform. Investors share their expert calls, allowing others to instantly access more than 10,000 calls on Affirm, Teladoc, Roblox, or almost any company of interest. All you have to do is log in. Visit tegus.co/patrick to learn more.   ------ This episode is brought to you by MIT Investment Management Company (MITIMCo), the endowment office of MIT. MITIMCo seeks to find people who are focused on achieving exceptional long-term investment returns, partner with these firms early, and stick around for the very long term.   MITIMCo is also searching for an exceptional new teammate to join their internal investment team. Visit mitimco.org to learn more – click “Join” to learn more about the Global Investor Role on MITIMCo’s team or and click “Emerging Managers” to learn more about their emerging manager activities. ------ Invest Like the Best is a property of Colossus, Inc. For more episodes of Invest Like the Best, visit joincolossus.com/episodes.    Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter: @patrick_oshag | @JoinColossus   Show Notes [00:03:47] - [First question] - How he would teach potential students to be investors [00:04:26] - The Money Game [00:04:40] - Moneyball [00:05:59] - Pros and cons of volatility when investing [00:08:55] - Emotional response to volatility [00:12:44] - Training to have a better temperament [00:14:20] - What is his investing game [00:15:17] - The Ethical Algorithm [00:16:44] - How time horizon impacts their investment strategy [00:20:53] - Assessing a company’s earnings power [00:26:12] - Shifting business models vs. evolving within a business model [00:32:32] - Understanding how to invest in disruptive businesses [00:35:26] - Why he’s skeptical on Growth and Value investing strategies [00:38:42] - Expectations Investing [00:38:55] - How his view of assessing businesses has changed [00:43:56] - Defining unit economics [00:45:41] - Taking on uncertainty risk in the portfolio  [00:50:38] - The business that taught him the most; Amazon [00:53:32] - Dealing with massive amounts of change [00:56:01] - The Big Short [00:59:46] - Interest in psychedelic research [01:01:02] - What has changed the most in investing from when he started [01:04:19] - Kindest thing anyone has done for him

How might our decision-making improve if we ask ourselves, “What happened when other people were in this situation before?” Michael Mauboussin, Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, joins your host Dr. Joe Sweeney, Executive Director of the Alliance for Decision Education, to discuss the importance of considering base rates and reference classes when making tough choices, the undervalued impact of keeping a decision journal, and the overlooked role of luck in the outcomes we observe. And when it comes to the choice between exploring and exploiting our resources, you'll learn what ants and bees can teach us about decision-making. Welcome to Season 1 - Episode 1.