Podcast appearances and mentions of anastasia amoroso

Stocks closed well off worst levels, but the rout in April continues. A deepening market selloff takes center stage with Anastasia Amoroso of iCapital and Sameer Samana of Wells Fargo breaking down pressure points across sectors. Our Deirdre Bosa reports on the unraveling of AI optimism. Morgan Stanley's Seth Carpenter weighs in on Trump vs. Powell tensions and macro dynamics, while Citi's Scott Chronert discusses the implications of today's sharp drop—and the situation he says you should be buying right now. Technical analysis from Katie Stockton provides levels to watch, and Steve Kovach covers Apple's decline on renewed China and tariff concerns. Earnings from Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance with Baird's David George.

Guy Adami and Anastasia Amoroso, Managing Director and Chief Investment Strategist at iCapital, discuss the current state of the markets and the impact of persistent volatility. They cover the effects of rising tariffs, shifting Fed policies, and how investors can navigate uncertainty by balancing defensive positions with long-term opportunities. Anastasia shares insights on sector resilience, the outlook for banks, and the evolving role of trade deals in shaping market sentiment. They also explore the future of U.S. manufacturing, the labor market, and the global shift in supply chains. — FOLLOW US YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia Instagram: @riskreversalmedia Twitter: @RiskReversal LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

What will Trump's Tariffs and now escalated trade war mean for stocks in the months ahead? Tech is at the forefront of that question as names like Nvidia get smashed today. And it's not often you see a decline like this for Apple shares. We discuss with Erik Woodring from Morgan Stanley. Plus, our all-star panel of iCapital's Anastasia Amoroso, Hightower's Stephanie Link and Requisite Capital weigh in on some massive sector moves. And, Trivariate's Adam Parker tells us how he is navigating today's big drop. 

Jon and Morgan lead a packed hour, covering today's major selling from every angle. A market panel with Wells Fargo's Sameer Samana and iCapital's Anastasia Amoroso to break down the day's action. Goldman Sachs' Greg Tuorto weighs in on small caps, while former Tesla President Jon McNeill discusses Tesla, tariffs, and EV policy. Later, Wedbush's Dan Ives hits the sharp turn lower in Nvidia and what to do with Apple. Morgan hits a bright spot in the market: European defense stocks. 

The Fed no doubt grappling with whether it should cut or not. The Wall Street Journal's Nick Timiraos tells us what's at stake in tomorrow's CPI report. Plus, iCapital's Anastasia Amoroso and JP Morgan Asset Management's Jack Manley tells us what they think the tariffs could mean for the markets and your money. And, we break down the latest in the tech space amid the ongoing drama between Elon Musk and Sam Altman – as well as Apple's potential new partnership. 

What could the election's result mean for this bull run? Our all-star panel of New York Life Investments' Lauren Goodwin, iCapital's Anastasia Amoroso and Charles Schwab's Kevin Gordon reveal what they think is next for stocks. Plus, Glen Kacher from Light Street Capital tells us where he sees the mega-caps headed as we look toward the end of the year. 

Watch the video version on YouTube.  On previous episodes, we've discussed what's called the “democratization of alternatives.” Put simply, alternatives have become more accessible to individuals as the investment vehicles have evolved to address pain points like high minimums and long lockup periods. Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, is joined by Anastasia Amoroso, the Chief Investment Strategist at iCapital. The platform is designed to help clients navigate the world of alternative investments. We'll hear from Anastasia about what iCapital does to help individuals feel confident investing in alternatives, as well as her perspective on the trends we're seeing in the market. Resources: For more resources on the Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives and Principles of Alternatives Investing Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

How much life is left in this overachieving bull run? And will good news on the economy continue to be treated as good for stocks? iCapital's Anastasia Amoroso, Invesco's Kristina Hooper and Citi's Scott Chronert reveal where they stand. Plus, Warren Pies from 3Fourteen tells us why he is expecting a soft landing and a year-end rally. And, top technician John Kolovos thinks there's more room for stocks to run… but it could be a bit of a bumpy ride. He explains why. 

Dan Nathan and Danny Moses discuss bank earnings and Tesla's highly anticipated Robo Taxi event. Recorded on a Friday morning before market opening, the conversation explores JP Morgan and Wells Fargo's performance, noting their trading positions and sentiment. The duo also discusses Tesla's event outcomes, including the Robo Taxi reveal and unexplored lower-end EV announcements, resulting in a drop in Tesla stock. After the break (32:30), Dan is joined by Anastasia Amoroso, Chief Investment Strategist at iCapital. The conversation explores the unpredictable financial year of 2023, marked by the emergence of generative AI, impacts on the S&P 500, and the soft landing of the economy. Anastasia provides insights into market rotations, inflation, and a shifting rate environment, emphasizing the potential benefits of a broader market opportunity. They also examine regional banking crises, the role of AI, the semiconductor industry's investment appeal, and geopolitical risks concerning the Middle East. The episode further discusses the implications of the upcoming U.S. elections on market stability, potential shifts in regulatory focus on megacap tech, and the influence of global events on oil prices. Anastasia outlines why a Goldilocks scenario could sustain a higher market multiple and the future investment opportunities spanning utilities, financials, real estate, and tech sectors. The conversation concludes with analysis of China's economic strategies and their potential regional and global impacts. Subscribe to our newsletter: https://riskreversalmedia.beehiiv.com/subscribe — About the Show: On The Tape is a weekly podcast with CNBC Fast Money's Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses. They're offering takes on the biggest market-moving headlines of the week, trade ideas, in-depth analysis, tips and advice. Each episode, they are joined by prominent Wall Street participants to help viewers make smarter investment decisions. Bear market, bull market, recession, inflation or deflation… we're here to help guide your portfolio into the green. Risk Reversal brings you years of experience from former Wall Street insiders trading stocks to experts in the commodity market. — Check out our show notes here See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/onthetape. — Shoot us an email at OnTheTape@riskreversal.com with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @OnTheTapePod on Twitter or @riskreversalmedia on Threads — We're on social: Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow Danny Moses @DMoses34 on Twitter Follow Liz Thomas @LizThomasStrat on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Are we heading for another stretch of volatility? Sofi's Liz Young Thomas, iCapital's Anastasia Amoroso and BMO's Yung-Yu Ma give their forecasts for stocks. Plus, Wells Fargo's Chris Harvey tells us how he will navigate a potential rate cut and the upcoming election. And, CNBC's Jim Cramer storms Post Nine with some breaking news on Nvidia. 

What's next for stocks as markets make their way through a turbulent week? iCapital's Anastasia Amoroso, Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank's Chris Hyzy and Ryan Detrick of Carson Group break down what they're expecting next for the market. Plus, JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon shedding some light on his future at the company. Top banking analyst Mike Mayo gives his first reaction – and tells us what it could mean for the stock in the long term. And, Robinhood and Warner Bros. Discovery both set to report after the bell. We discuss what is at stake for both of those stocks. 

I react to iCapital chief investment strategist Anastasia Amoroso, who says there's now a “Great Rotation” to small cap stocks going on in the US stock market. Chief market strategist at Carson Group, Ryan Detrick, also thinks the sudden momentum of small cap stocks will be sustained; I discuss The Great Rotation thesis. Related videos: The Bull Case For Small Caps: Tom Lee + Goldman Sachs https://youtu.be/VTCaMcppLXM Warren Buffett: I'd Buy Small Caps if Starting Over Now https://youtu.be/V7yAKXYXhDM Referenced videos: Buy on pullback and volatility, say iCapital's Anastasia Amoroso https://youtu.be/-MZjTCeCSc8 Small and mid caps 'will lead second half of the year,' says Carson Group's Ryan Detrick https://youtu.be/pmAS5QrZs8k Stocks Today With JJ channel: https://www.youtube.com/@jjstockstoday Join The Art of Value Patreon community for exclusive content I don't share anywhere else: https:/www.patreon.com/TheArtofValue Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser and nothing in this content is financial advice. This content is for general education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.

I react to iCapital chief investment strategist Anastasia Amoroso, who says there's now a “Great Rotation” to small cap stocks going on in the US stock market. Chief market strategist at Carson Group, Ryan Detrick, also thinks the sudden momentum of small cap stocks will be sustained; I discuss The Great Rotation thesis. Related videos: The Bull Case For Small Caps: Tom Lee + Goldman Sachs https://youtu.be/VTCaMcppLXM Warren Buffett: I'd Buy Small Caps if Starting Over Now https://youtu.be/V7yAKXYXhDM Referenced videos: Buy on pullback and volatility, say iCapital's Anastasia Amoroso https://youtu.be/-MZjTCeCSc8 Small and mid caps 'will lead second half of the year,' says Carson Group's Ryan Detrick https://youtu.be/pmAS5QrZs8k Stocks Today With JJ channel: https://www.youtube.com/@jjstockstoday Join The Art of Value Patreon community for exclusive content I don't share anywhere else: https:/www.patreon.com/TheArtofValue Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser and nothing in this content is financial advice. This content is for general education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.

Featuring: Ed Ludlow, Co-Host of Bloomberg Technology, joining the program for a look at Nvidia and the chip sector at large. Anastasia Amoroso, Chief Investment Strategist at iCapital, gives her outlook on equities from our Hong Kong studio. Mary Nicola, Bloomberg M-LIV Strategist, with the latest on APAC market action from Singapore.   Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bloomberg-daybreak-asia/id1663863437Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0Ccfge70zthAgVfm0NVw1bTuneIn: https://tunein.com/podcasts/Asian-Talk/Bloomberg-Daybreak-Asia-Edition-p247557/?lang=es-es See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Is it okay to be more bullish on stocks? Josh Brown and Cameron Dawson break down where they stand. Plus, Big Technology's Alex Kantrowitz weighs in on Apple hitting $190 for the first time since February … and where he sees the stock headed from here. 3Fourteen's Warren Pies is skeptical of one key piece of inflation data. He explains why and what it could mean for the broader market. And, Anastasia Amoroso from iCapital maps out the sectors she is betting on right now.

Trivariate's Adam Parker, iCapital's Anastasia Amoroso and Wells Fargo's Sameer Samana break down what they are expecting from earnings – and what it could mean for the broader market. Plus, Meta shareholder Doug Clinton drills down on what he's watching from that report tonight. And, Elizabeth Burton from Goldman Sachs Asset Management reveals how investors should be positioning their portfolios amid all of the rate cut uncertainty. 

Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio. In this episode, we feature conversations with Lakshman Achuthan and Anastasia Amoroso. Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACFSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Can stocks continue to rise if bond yields do as well? Anastasia Amoroso from iCapital, Steve Liesman and JP Morgan Asset Management's Jordan Jackson discuss. Plus, billionaire investor Marc Lasry breaks down where he sees opportunity right now and what he thinks the Fed's next move could be. And, Google's cloud conference kicks off tomorrow. We discuss what's at stake for the company's AI strategy – and the stock. 

Anastasia Amoroso serves as the Managing Director and Chief Investment Strategist at iCapital, a company dedicated to powering the world's alternative investment marketplace. In this podcast, Anastasia and Doug engage in a conversation regarding the 2024 Federal Reserve rate cuts and the potential consequences they may entail. They also discussed: Anastasia Amoroso's journey to becoming … Continue reading Episode 202 – Rate Cuts, Resilience, and Returns with Anastasia Amoroso →

Guy Adami and Dan Nathan are joined by Anastasia Amoroso, Chief Market Strategist at iCapital, for her 2024 stock market outlook (1:15). Later, Guy and Danny Moses go deep on macro headwinds, earnings, and sports betting stocks (35:40).  Topics On The Pod AI Optimism Not Priced In Earnings & Fed Rate Cut Expectations Why Anastasia Likes HYG & LQD on Pullbacks Key Takeaways from Bank Earnings Commercial Real Estate Venture Capital The Consumer/Labor Market The Yield Curve What Could Go Wrong How Elections Impact the Market Small Caps How Rate Cut Expectations are Impacting Markets Geopolitical Pressures Energy Stocks What Discover Earnings are Saying About the Consumer BlackRock's $12.5B Acquisition of Global Infrastructure Partners Debt to GDP Homebuilder/Housing Stocks Read on Earnings (Taiwan Semi, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley) Bitcoin ETF Sports Betting Stocks Danny's NFL Picks of the Week Subscribe to our newsletter: https://riskreversalmedia.beehiiv.com/subscribe — About the Show: On The Tape is a weekly podcast with CNBC Fast Money's Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses. They're offering takes on the biggest market-moving headlines of the week, trade ideas, in-depth analysis, tips and advice. Each episode, they are joined by prominent Wall Street participants to help viewers make smarter investment decisions. Bear market, bull market, recession, inflation or deflation… we're here to help guide your portfolio into the green. Risk Reversal brings you years of experience from former Wall Street insiders trading stocks to experts in the commodity market. — Check out our show notes here See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/onthetape. — Shoot us an email at OnTheTape@riskreversal.com with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @OnTheTapePod on Twitter or @riskreversalmedia on Threads — We're on social: Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow Danny Moses @DMoses34 on Twitter Follow Liz Young @LizYoungStrat on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Anastasia Amoroso, the Chief Investment Strategist at iCapital, rejoins the show to help us identify unusual opportunities in the capital markets this year as the economy slows and rates come down. Plus, the Santa Claus Rally never happened, but investors were piling into ETFs in December like they were sure it would. Was the herd late to the rally, or is the recent retracement in the stock market just a speed bump on the track to higher highs? LINKS FOR SHOW NOTES: https://etfdb.com/compare/market-cap/ https://www.pgpf.org/infographic/the-national-debt-is-now-more-than-34-trillion-what-does-that-mean https://www.investopedia.com/the-national-debt-hit-a-record-usd34-trillion-how-much-should-you-worry-8421976 https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_010524.pdf https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/retracement.asp https://icapital.com/about-us/anastasia-amoroso/ https://icapital.com/insights/investment-market-strategy/2024-market-outlook/

Anastasia Amoroso, the Chief Investment Strategist at iCapital, rejoins the show to help us identify unusual opportunities in the capital markets this year as the economy slows and rates come down. Plus, the Santa Claus Rally never happened, but investors were piling into ETFs in December like they were sure it would. Was the herd late to the rally, or is the recent retracement in the stock market just a speed bump on the track to higher highs? LINKS FOR SHOW NOTES: https://etfdb.com/compare/market-cap/ https://www.pgpf.org/infographic/the-national-debt-is-now-more-than-34-trillion-what-does-that-mean https://www.investopedia.com/the-national-debt-hit-a-record-usd34-trillion-how-much-should-you-worry-8421976 https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_010524.pdf https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/retracement.asp https://icapital.com/about-us/anastasia-amoroso/ https://icapital.com/insights/investment-market-strategy/2024-market-outlook/

Is it time to do your own pivot out of large cap growth stocks and into areas of the market that have dramatically lagged? Anastasia Amoroso from iCapital gives her take. Plus, Mark Okada from Sycamore Tree Capital Partners sees higher rates in the new year. He explains why. And, star analyst Stacy Rasgon tells us what today's Intel AI event might mean for the stock. 

How far can the AI fueled rally really run? Adam Parker from Trivariate gives his take. Plus, Big Technology's Alex Kantrowitz and CIC Wealth's Malcolm Ethridge weigh in on the chaos at Open AI and what it might mean for Microsoft's stock. And, Anastasia Amoroso of iCapital breaks out her 2024 market playbook.

Michelle Meyer, Mastercard Economics Institute North America Chief Economist, says October's slight drop in US retail sales doesn't take away from overall robust consumer spending. Diane Swonk, KPMG Chief Economist, details how the Fed will look to navigate a potential successful soft landing. Anastasia Amoroso, iCapital Chief Investment Strategist, says corporations could look to cut costs in 2024 if the Fed doesn't cut rates. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Economic Policy Director, discusses an increasingly dysfunctional environment on Capitol Hill despite the passage of a stopgap funding bill. Jennifer Bartashus, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst, breaks down Target's better-than-expected 3Q earnings.    Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance  Full transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. This is a joy what happens with young economists as you read their research and you go, oh, they're quite competent. Not long ago and far away, but a few years ago. That was Michelle Meyer absolutely owning the parsing of the American consumer. She worked for a small bank in Manhattan and is now Chief Economists North America from MasterCard Economics. You own the analysis I put you and Allen Zetner together. You own the analysis of the American consumer. Have we stopped spending? We clearly have not stop spending. Far from it, and think about the data this morning. It was an incredible combination of continued strength and retail spend, of rebound in Empire State manufacturing, which shows that there's still a need for more goods production, which is because consumers are still spending, and on top of that, you're getting some relief on the pricing side. So it's a really nice combination. I hate asking this question, and I'm stunned. It's my first time I've asked it. On November fifteenth, what's back to what's a holiday season look like? What's Black Friday? And then Black Monday and this and that? What does this retail madness did January look like? Well, it is a longer holiday season. We've learned that over the last few years, and it's a heavily promotional based holiday season, and part of that is because of the fact that there's so much demand out there to buy online. I mean, think about the numbers we just saw this morning. Our spending post numbers saw just over eight percent year of your growth in e commerce sales. So you know, you're seeing a consumer that is certainly exploring many different channels of spending, including online, and that creates a lot more opportunities for them to get products, and it also creates a lot more need for retailers to compete with these big moments in time where they offer promotions, and I think that's what's going to be indicative. So we'll learn a lot from the Black Friday period, and it's approaching very quickly. How sustainable is this combination of both robust retail sales and disinflation or even outright goods deflation. So I think you have to consider the different categories. I mean, when you looked at CPI yesterday, you certainly saw some categories like these big durable goods like your refrigerators back seeing some price declines. But for many other things, like many services, for example, you are still seeing some price increases. So part of the drop in prices for some of these goods simply reflects the fact that prices increased too much out of a pandemic because of supply chain issues, because of higher costs, and now it's reverting a bit more to something more normal, right, So that means in real terms you will see some support in terms of some of these items moving through. In nominal terms, you could see some move down in terms of overall spend. So it really depends on why inflation is moving, and that is a function of the type of product and how things evolved coming out of the pandemic. When you put it together, does this seem like a recipe for this goldilocks soft landing, or does this seem to paint the picture of a federal reserve that needs to do more and of an economy that has way too much momentum to really achieve the disinflation that a lot of people are baking into market evaluations. I think the data is shaping up in a way that's really favorable at the moment because you continue to have economic growth. Look at the third quarter GDP numbers, that was fairly broad based economic activity, not just consumers but also businesses investing inventories getting much more manageable and in stock So you know, things have been evolving remarkably well in terms of the real economy, taking out some of the excesses, labor market coasting into a litt bit of a slower trajectory for job growth, but still expansionary, while you get this relief on the inflation front. So how much of that is because of monetary policy, how much of that is because of the nature of the shock that we had initially, We'll see it's probably a bit of both. But it's evolving really quite quite nicely, and obviously exceeding many people's expectations. Out there. We talked about the interest expense and the debt and the deficit earlier with Mia mcguinnis. Let's talk about the average charge card is twenty five twenty six percent interest, migrating up now to twenty eight twenty nine percent interest. I find thirty percent to be almost criminal. But you people look at this daily, is that interest rate goes up, do we spend less? So what we're looking at overall is how monetary policy is transmitting into the economy broadly. So when you think about who's borrowing out there, there's companies that are borrowing in terms of the expansionary needs. There's consumers that are borrowing in terms of whether or not they want to buy a home or a big ticket item that might require some leverage. So higher interest rates are certainly transmitting into the economy. You can see it today with the retail sales number that's Mike just my friends. Around housing related items, furniture, some of these bigger ticket items that require debt. You are seeing some hit to those types suspending. So I think the high level of interest rates goes back to Lisa's point around how the FED is trying to calibrate this economy with some easing of real growth but still allowing inflation to come down. Okay, you're out of the game, but I'm going to ask you the game question here, which is what is your twelve months for to real GDP? Like, what's your twenty twenty You're talking to fancy people at MasterCard, and you know they don't want to charge cards. They want to know what Michelle Meyer thinks about the economy. What's your twenty twenty four real GDP call? So the good news is that we are I'm still in the game, and that we are still running at still absolutely that is who I am as a person, as an economist. When I look ahead, I mean this year we had an economy that ran above its underlying trend. So we're trending right now, given where GDP is for real growth somewhere between two point four percent right now in twenty twenty three. As we look ahead to twenty twenty four, we're probably going to see some moderation closer to the underlying trend growth rate of the economy closer to trend. Didn't answer, Ye's still in the game. I'm still I got to total go away. Michelle Meyer's MasterCard. There somewhere in the blur of the last four or five days through my small little brain, would somebody get Diane SWUNKA You know, I just said she has such a perspective different from three zip codes in New York, And I guess all of this is her academic work at the University of Michigan Longo. She's putting a penalty box there. At one point she was stealing signs from the Federal Reserve. Is I think it's a football joke there, Yeah, dian Swank understands Michigan's I guess in the penalty box, Diane Swank, is it free and clear? Is your own Powell not in the penalty box. I've asked this question four times, but with immense respect to your work and your holistic look at business data. Is it mission accomplished? Finally, for the FED, it's not mission accomplished because if that is still going to hold rates higher for longer. But we're done with right hikes and that's what we've been saying, and that's what we believe. That's the good news out there is that it does look like the soft landing is not only possible but probable. But the journey is not yet over, and the endurance part comes next, and that's what the FED is watching closely. They still expect to see growth below potential in order to have that soft landing occur. That's one of those technical things that consumers don't really like, because growth below potential is a rise in unemployment, which in fact we've already seen. Most of that rise we saw over the summer was because more people were looking for jobs, not because of mass layoffs than in October when we saw unemployment move up to three point nine percent, it was because we also saw the spillover effects of strikes as well. When I look at this economy and all the different narratives that are out there right now, the heart of the matter for me is fully employed America. Butter stop with what Austin Goolsby brilliantly said yesterday. Is a believer in a new productivity, a new regime of productivity that's going to make the job for everybody out there easier. Do you buy it? Well, we are seeing a major increase in productivity, and I think during the frenzy, the hiring frenzy that we saw, we know from ADP data that's locked at this more closely, many firms stopped hiring people. Then add on top of it the loss and hiring an educational attainment due to the pivot online itself. And now we're unwinding that and people are actually learning the jobs they have. Overlay that with innovation and technology and leveraging the technologies we were forced to use as we moved online, and you do get higher productivity growth, and that is helping to bring down inflation as well. The problem for most consumers, of course, is that the level of prices are still very high. And let's face it, you know, consumer sentiment hit its record high for University of Michigan Centiment Index in Chau two thousand. Yeah, I threw that in. Although I did go to Chicago too. They won the first Heisman Trophy right now with a lack of scandals, which a little better. Did you go to the Goldsby speech? I mean, you're such a hitter out there in Chicago? Did you darken the door for the Golsby speech? I wasn't at this one. I've been at many of them, and I'll be at one on December first with them. What about Hey, Dana speaking as well, what do you feel how do you kind of view the consumer here? We got some retail sales data today that came in a little bit better than expected, yet target, you know, still seeing some some challenges out there with the reported numbers, and of course we'll hear from Walmart tomorrow. What's what's your sense of the consumer out there? This is a consumer that shown remarkable endurance. Remember October is when the first student loans for about twenty three million student borrowers were due. Of course, they started paying those loans already in August while ahead of time, front running the interest accruing on those loans. But we know that student loan, your payments are going to crimp consumer spending. And I think what's also important is we're seeing the biggest trade offs everything within grocery stores. They're spending more at grocery stores than at restaurants during the month, and after adjusting for inflation, they're still spending more at grocery stores because it's really expensive after adjusting for inflation to go out to restaurants. That said, there's a lot of trade offs within that as well. Beef prices hit a record high during the month of October in that's due to the fact that we had all these droughts. That's in the herds, and I think, you know, the effects of those kinds of shocks are what really matter to consumers. And even as the FED is combating inflation the pace at which prices increase, many consumers who finally saw their wages level up only got to spend a moment in the sun before they were burned by inflation, and they're still playing catchup from those earlier increases exactly. So, you know, in terms of the consumer here we have the unemployment rate officially at three point nine percent. What do you think the FED would like to see that rate? Do they feel like it needs to drift a little bit higher before they get a sense that this economy really is cooling? Well, I hate to use the word like, because I think that's a little pejorative in this context. I think they think it needs to go a little above four percent in order to get the full derailing of inflation and to be able to really cut rates as we move into twenty twenty five. I think we're going to see rate cuts by the middle of twenty twenty four, but the descent on rates is going to be much less graduate much slower than the acent on rates, and I think that's very important to remember as well. The Center Reserve is really pretty pleased with the fact that so far until we had that October blip, which was by an external shock the strikes, that we were able to really see more people looking for jobs rather than layoffs contributing to unemployment, more data checks and all this turmoil, the vix goes to constructively bullish. We are higher above fourteen and now at fourteen point eight, a better VIX number off of yesterday. Dow up one hundred, SPX up sixteen points, doing better than call it nine o'clock, futures up four tenths of a percent, NASDAK up half a percent as well. We're with Diane's swank this morning of KPMG. Diane, my great theory is corporations are going to adapt and adjust. How do they adapt and adjust? Is it just going to be one expense reduction? You know, that's going to be a series of I think we're already seeing the adaption occur, and it's evolution more of a revolution than an evolution, and that is that after more than a decade of ulter low rates and some business models that were built entirely on ultra low rates still adapt to a more normal economy that has higher rates to it, and they have to deal with the higher wage levels that they leveled up to, and that means they got to make their workers more productive to be able to continue paying those wages without mass layoffs. And that's where I think we're going. I think we are going to see productivity growth continue to be elevated. That's the good news. I think also it's important to remember the tire meets the road on productivity growth when you combine innovation and technology with our human capital, and how valuable it is. When you really level the boats together two together, that's when you get the big benefits. Sure theory there is how the Cubs stole the Milwaukee Brewer's managers. I mean you get that. She's like consulting the Chicago Cubs. How do we jump started Creid Council bring them down to Chicago? Paul slip in one more? All right, So, Diane, I mean we have our President Biden in San Francisco meeting with President she. How do you figure China into your economic outlook here? What do you what do you what would you like to see. What do you think we're going to see. I think it's important that you know we can't deglobalization is a bit of a myth. We're seeing trading blocks that have moved, and more training within blocks rather than across blocks, which is actually boosting global trade. That's more friction in the global economy and ultimately more risk of supply chocks and more fragile supply chains. So I think the concept of de risking is something that is a relative concept. I understand there's geopolitical and strategic issues we need to deal with with China, but these are the two largest economies in the world. We're talking about China and the US, and it's better to have better relations than intense relations and intensifying geopol tensions between the two. Dane swanp KPMG. They're chief economists, thank you. The grace of Bloomberg's surveillance is we don't throw up films of people being wrong or people being right. This is a tough, tough business gaming out equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. If we tossed up a video John and Lisa Anastasia Amroso on the market a number of months ago. She held Lisa's hand and said, Lisa, It'll be okay. A chief investor strategist and what and correct bull joins us. Now, is this the second Is this the second bull market off the October lows thirteen months ago? Are we clicking in with a new bullmarket lift? I mean, I think this is giving investors a lot of faith and hope into the year end. You know, Tom, It's amazing how quickly things shift, And just in the last couple of weeks we went from really bad technicals to really a great technical setup. And I think what's likely to happen now is the chase into your end is on and it's going to involve a lot of stakeholders, whether it's this systematic traders, whether hedge funds that were called too short, whether it's all the cash eight trillion of it on the sideline. So I do think that we well, I was initially going to say drift higher into your end based on yesterday. We might rip higher into your end, but I do think we'll finish higher. Let's discuss what worked yesterday. Small caps, discretionary real a state. Is that what you think works going into your end? Well, I think tech is going to continue to work into your end because if you look at unprofitable tech, for example, it also rallied pretty massively yesterday as well. You know the reason I hesitate when it comes to consumer discretionary. You know, I love the target beat this morning, but it does feel like a bit of a one off. And you know, if we look at some of the surveys of consumer spending consumer spending intentions, consumers are likely to be slower and likely to be more discerning and the I want to look for promotions. So you know, maybe this everything rally does take consumer dis questioningly higher with it, but from a quality perspective, and where I have the most convictions on margins, on growth, on secular opportunity, John, I think it's still tech. Okay, So how much is this baking in both the ongoing profits and also yields going lower given that valuations are already pretty high considering how high the alternative is. Yeah, I mean everything is working in the right direction right now. Clearly this is a huge yield story. But when it comes to big tech, for example, you know, yes, yields help from the valuation perspective, But what I also like about big tech for example, is that earnings growth is there over and above the S and P. For example, for the next year or two, the average earnings growth is about sixteen percent. So and by the way, valuations, I know people say big tech or tech generally is expensive, but when you adjust for that earnings growth, it's actually not that expensive. And when you start looking at individual stocks, maybe forty times forward earnings on Nvidia, maybe that seems expensive, but when you expand the chart, it's not actually off the chart, so to speak. So everything is relative. What's the balance of risks? We've been talking about that throughout the morning for next year, as people get enthusiastic into year end, is it a better than an expected economic picture or is it some sort of recession that really feeds into a profit recession as well. Yeah, so we have to decouple the view into your end versus what might happen in twenty twenty four. And I think the reason for this optimist for twenty twenty three has been this is a soft landing year. This has proven to be a soft landing year. Now I think something harder may have to happen in twenty twenty four. And here's really the big question. Which is going to determine the direction of the markets in twenty twenty four is how quickly does the FED cut or do they cut? If they cut, then I think we're off to the races, and this is they go in all on risk moment. But if they don't cut, if they stay persistent, then I think some of the bold may be disappointed. Do we underestimate the ability of corporations to adjust? Twenty four months ago of screaming about that we saw Target. Today they've had a real, real post pandemic challenge. I guess, John, what's it up right now? Forty two? It's twenty five? Okay, who's keeping count? But the answer is I still think it's underestimated in FED centric, rate centric New York City that I'm sorry, each and every corporation out there is going to adapt and adjust. What are they going to do next year? Yes, corporations are adjusting, and the case of Target, it took them a while, but those inventories were eventually paired back. I think what corporations may struggle with next year until and unless the FED pivots is the refinancing bill of some of their corporate debt. And by the way, This goes across the spectrum. It's the US government which has to refinance about thirty five percent of the debt between now and the end of next year, is the commercial real estate operators that have to refile a lot of the debt, and then it's corporate. So you know, the reason, Tom, why I think we haven't seen more of an adverse impact is because the percentage of floating rate has been low and companies have not had a lot of fixed rate maturities that needed to be refinanced. That does start to change next year. So if the FED doesn't cut, I think it does become harder for corporates and how do they adjust well, if margins get squeezed, I think cost cutting is the next measure. Does that make life difficult for certain parts of the equity market given the nature of high yield issuers, Yeah, it does. The parts of the market that I worry about, or leverage loans for example, which have already had a full year of rates around five percent. And if you look at the net interst coverage ratios, there were about three and a half times going into the year for a lot of those issues. There are one times today, maybe one point three, So how does that picture change next year, especially if you have some slow down in the top line for high yield. I'm a little bit less worried because you do have generally higher quality and better fundamentals, and there's a small portion of high yield that needs to be rolled over next year. But from a broader economic perspective, and especially when I think about the banking sector, if you start to have more charge offs, incrementally more delinquencies, some default and by the way, venture capital bankruptcies have been on the rise, so all of that does start to impact some sector of the economy, which I think is the bank. Can we finish on the banks kind of left for dead at times this year and for good reason earlier in spring. What's your view on them into twenty four? A very mixed view on them into twenty twenty four, because in earlier on the show, I did say that, you know, I was kind of warming up to the bank sector because we were expecting the capital market activity to pick up. That really didn't pan out so far in the fall of this year, and I'm not sure that it does in twenty twenty four. So if you have lackluster capital market activity, in twenty twenty four, and then on top of that you do have those higher delinquencies, defaults, and charge offs. That comes back to roots for the banking sector. So I appreciate the rally that they're participating in, but that would not be my top pic today. You sound actually less optimistic than you did a bunch of months ago, quite a bit less optimistic. Can you frame that out just how much you think some of the gains have already been paked in. Yeah, I definitely sound less optimistic your end rally nowithstanding. And the reason for that is because a lot of investors coming into the year expected this to be maybe even a recession a year, or at least very lackluster economic growth, and instead we got close to five percent GDP in the third quarter. So a lot of people are now in the soft landing camp and are not even talking about recession. But if you think about this, you know, the longer rates stayed at the current levels, and by the way, if inflation falls and real rates start to pick up the relationship we also talked about previously, then we are going to get in restrictive territory relative to the neutral rate, and that's when you start to worry about the FED stays therefore too long, then that's what caused historically a recession. Well, I do worry about that, and I don't think it's in people's consensus numbers right now. Is my takeaway here that Amoroso is on the edge of bramo ye and it gets maybe less constructive gone into twenty five to be a long year of twenty four. So we can't just you know, prepare for the whole thing. That's the joy that I hurt six months ago. Oh, the joy is here. The joy is into your end and you know, you know, I do think that. Look, the FED for now seems to be behind us until mid December. You know, I think some of the worst Fed Treasury auctions are behind us. Okay, So that's the joy. The conversation. The joy was on the screen over the last twenty four and made away and I say, you're constructive so many times right to be and stay camo. So if I capital it the Henrietta Trace joins US now economic policy research director at Vada Partners. Henrietta, with all your years of experience in Washington, and how polarized is the polarity right now? I mean, they are just at each other's throats, almost literally. Certainly, the stories out of DC yesterday were just shocking. Frankly, they have to go on recess. I am so thankful that they have agreed to this kick the can approach. As you mentioned before, I think we're just going to be doing this again, and I'm not optimistic that it's going to stop in January or in February when the two current deadlines exist. We're going to be doing this every couple of months for the rest of twenty twenty four. So we should get used to this kind of acrimony government shutdown risks. Those headlines should just be permanently emblazoned every couple of months in the newsreel. We've got those headlines ready to go hendriady through the whole at twenty twenty four. Can you just frame how big this fight over spending might be just next year. You know, it's just loud. It's not a big fight. It's just a loud fight. They are not getting any reductions in federal spending. This is a clean cr There will be a minimum of about one hundred billion dollars an additional aid that goes out across domestic and international priorities. We are not fighting about spending cuts. We are fighting about the process. The Freedom Caucus came up with the idea of doing this laddered approach. It was rejected, resuscitated, and then finally included in part in this deal. But it contains no spending cuts, and there's no scenario where the second tranche, which includes defense and foreign operations spending, is going to expire after they reach a deal on the first couple of appropriations bills. So this is a lot of sound, This is a lot of bark very little bite. Given the fact that there was not Israel or Ukraine funding in this current bill, how likely do you think that will get done by January? By February? Does it even matter considering the spending that's coming out of different pockets. That's a really important question. And I think a lot of this is tied up with Minoriti leader maccaddeal and how much cloud he continues to have with the party. I think we can't underestimate the impact of the loss in Kentucky for the governor's race that materially acted his standing with his own conference in the Senate Republican Caucus. And I think that's a big problem for Ukraine AID. I was surprised in my last round of meetings in DC how little support there is for Ukraine versus what there has been from the United States for the last year and eight months. It is really a iffy question on whether Ukraine aid gets provided at all. I do think that keeping Israel aid off of the cr that they're passing now creates at least a pathway. But when you tie Ukraine to the border and recognize that we haven't had border security legislation pass in a decade or more, you really have a problem. So I think that it is good news that we don't have a bill yet. It keeps soap alive. But I would dim my expectations for robust aid to Ukraine and Israel. Obviously is another problem that is splitting the Democratic Party just in half, just ripping it apart. So those packages are going to be really hard to come by, and I wouldn't be surprised that they didn't get it till January. You know, it's getting harder and harder to parse through the signal from the noise in Washington, d C. We have all these real, tangible, important issues and yet we are focusing on scuffles both in the Senate that Bernie Sanders had to and with a wooden gavel, and then this the accusation that Kevin McCarthy elbowed fellow Republican Congress member Tim Burchett during some of the contentious negotiations. Are any of these important to you on a policy or just functional level? There is no policy, So I think Tom, you actually just made a statement about how if you don't have your fiscal house in order, you can enact policy. That's exactly what's happening. There is no policy, so we're only talking about fiscal austerity. There's no discussion about passing a year in tax build that's of any kind of merit. They're running around punching each other in the back because they have gripes and qualms with who's a liar, who has trustworthiness. There is no policy, there's no uniting policy that drives the House of publican conference, which is in control, and that means that the Senate can't get their act together or get their work done. And it's really been a darth of leadership that I think is exacerbated by Mitch McConnell being on the way out, and a speaker that is untested with no real leadership mandate to work with on the Republican side. So I think there is no policy. I don't think we will be voting on any meaningful legislation next year. They cannot move forward on impeachment. They can't move forward on you know, impeaching even the Homeland Security secretary. They don't have a plan for the border that is comprehensive or can pass with the Republican conference. When you have these type majorities and a lack of leadership, this is where you land. So we just have these short term fights about federal spending. Thankfully we don't have to deal with the debt ceiling next year. That would have been a real problem. Well, Henry Ti, given everything you've just said, doesn't that make it all the more amazing that we managed to find an agreement in the House yesterday. I mean, you know, yes, and I don't want to be just contrarian, but they're up. The scenario where we shut down is even worse because there's no path to reopen. So if you shut down the government, we will be shut down for quite some time. People talk about, oh, we couldn't possibly go past two weeks because you'd missed a pay cycle. The last time we did this, for no good reason, with no end in sight, we shut down for thirty five days, right over the Christmas holidays. I think the one thing that's kept my optimism alive contrary to a lot of popular opinion, with you know, twenty percent or less odds that we'd shut down all year, is basically that the alternative is worse. Shutting down means we stay shut down for quite some time. Everybody looks incompetent, and you can't have these fights about fiscal austerity and spending. If you're shut down, it starts to have a material negative impact. So I mean they're both bad options, but shutting down is the worst one, with lots of them looking competent when it's open. Henritta, trace their evade partners, Henritta, thank you. I don't talk to Jim Bartak ahead. Let us get briefs here to say the marriage Jennifer Bartash's marriage counselor joins us with Bloomberg Intelligence. Jen thank you so much for joining. I want you to explain what falls to the bottom line. Home depot has a net income margin of nine is tennis cents. Target I was shocked is three or a moldy four cents on the dollar. Is anybody making money in this business? Good morning, Tom. It's a good question, and it's definitely one of the challenges that we always see in this retail sector. But I have to say, Targets results today we're very encouraging, you know, and it does give a little bit of optimism for the fourth quarter. So when they beat across the board with revenue same store sales, you know, we did see a great increase in margin. That's all really because some of the productivity initiatives that they put in place are starting to really help take cost out of the business. Willmont anst on this news as well. It's up in a free market, buying more than one point two percent. Jen, will hear from that company tomorrow. What is the read across from that company to the other. Well, I think that Target having better than expected results really only means good things for Walmart. Walmart does tend to outperform in environments where people are pulling back or being very careful with their spending, and so I think that a better than expected result today may lead to a very good outlook for tomorrow as well. But Jen, how do you parse through just the management side of things versus the macro call on a management side of saying Target seemed to work down fourteen percent of some of its excess inventory, leading to some of this boost. Does that really cross over to some sort of read through in the broader consumer. Well, I think that what we've seen is across a lot of retailers, they've had to figure out their inventory in kind of this post pandemic world. We went through a phase where everybody was stockpiling inventory so that they've had stuff available, then they had too much and they had to clear it out, and now they're trying to find the right equal librium. And being down versus last year where there were still concerns about supply chain constraints just shows that we're really getting back to that equilibrium and we're seeing it across multiple retailers, and so I think what's important is that inventory is down that much, but they are already stock for holiday, So to us, that also means that they should be able to sell through a good portion of their inventory over the holiday season and not end up in the same position they were in where they had to have a lot of Markdown's post holiday jen Yesterday we were talking about drug stores in certain cities that are putting pictures of toilet paper behind the shelves and then having people ask request for it to be delivered to them from the back of this store. Target did talk about theft to our shrink as they call it, and saying it's still weighing on their margins in a material way. What do you make of this? How long are we going to hear about this in earnings and is this just simply an excuse for margin pressure or is this something that is going to become increasingly concerning for both investors as well as the corporate executives. What we usually see in longer term cycles is that theft escalates whenever the consumer is under pressure, and as inflation is coming down, that actually should be a little bit of a release on that pressure. With regards to theft and the losses that retailers are having. You know, people generally want to do the right thing, and Target in particular has been very vocal about theft levels. We've saw some store closures where they said it was just not profitable to operate, but We do think that as inflation comes down, that should easy get a little bit easier going forward. John, you don't you bihold cell, but I want you to note a four percent dividend, an eleven percent five year dividend growth. I got a multiple of fifteen, which is what one third of the high flyers one fifth of Nvidia. In that can Brian Cornell and his team say we're back on plan the pandemics beyond us and we will have the glide pass of the TAJE we knew years ago. I think we might be at a turning point. It might be a little early to say that we're already there, but I think that today's results definitely indicate that a lot of the strategies that they're retrenching, that they're putting back into place, do put target back on that right trajectory. Jennifer, thanks for the update. Let's cat cheup against tomorrow when we get numbers from Wolmont. Jennifer Pontanshestan of Bloomberg Intetogen's Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Eastern I'm Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always I'm the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen, and this is BloombergSee 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As Chief Investment Strategist at iCapital, a global alternatives platform, Anastasia Amoroso is responsible for helping the firm's clients understand changes in the macro regime and how capital should be allocated in response. We start our discussion by considering the current state of affairs – of high interest rates, of correlated moves in stock and bond prices and resilient economic growth – and exploring where history is and is not relevant.Here, Anastasia highlights the degree to which both consumers and corporations are far less sensitive to interest rate increases than they were in the pre-GFC era. Higher rates are a concern, but they need not derail the case for risk assets like stocks which have delivered good returns amidst higher rates in the past. For Anastasia, an instructive framework for evaluating opportunity is one that considers valuation, positioning and a catalyst. And in the context of this last factor, she notes favorable earnings revisions which are showing signs of recently bottoming and strong earnings growth, specifically in the tech sector. We spend the bulk of our time on the important topic of diversification and the faltering performance of the traditional 60/40 portfolio. She highlights exposure to global macro hedge funds, a strategy that delivered a 9% return in 2022 as both the stock and bond market lost nearly 20%.We finish the conversation by having Anastasia reflect on the state of female careers in financial services.  She states that the industry has become more inclusive and more representative of women in leadership roles. With this progress noted, she sees a gap in women serving in the middle, between junior and senior roles, potentially the result of the unique demands on females that often include family responsibilities. Ongoing attention to office/life balance and creating a degree of flexibility in work is likely one part of the remedy here.I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Anastasia Amoroso.

Anastasia Amoroso, chief investment strategist at iCapital, says the biggest surprise in 2023 has been just how resilient the economy has been, but not the Federal Reserve's ability to deliver a soft landing, because economic growth combined with declining inflation and a cautious central bank are the recipe to delay a decline. Amoroso believes there will eventually be a recession, but says it's not imminent unless the Fed becomes too restrictive too quickly. Also on the show, David Trainer, president at research firm New Constructs, says this week's hot IPO deal is headed for trouble right out of the box, Megan Sanctorum discusses a survey showing that nearly one-third of Americans feel stuck or 'trapped' in a home they don't like or can't afford and, in the Market Call, Chris McMahon, chief executive officer at Aquinas Wealth Management, talks stocks and praises the very IPO that Trainer has in the Danger Zone. 

Anastasia Amoroso, iCapital Chief Investment Strategist, suggests buying the AI dip. Stephanie Roth, J.P. Morgan Private Bank Senior Markets Economist, says it's been a pretty impressive cooling of the labor market over the course of this year. Michael Nathanson, SVB MoffettNathanson Senior Research Analyst, discusses the Disney, Charter Communications standoff. Kona Haque, ED&F Man Head of Research, says oil at $90 a barrel is "significant" as it pushes the whole commodity index higher. Daniel Tannebaum, Oliver Wyman Global Anti-Financial Crime Practice Leader, says the US is still calibrating how to respond to China.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ken Leon, CFRA Director of Equity Research, discusses US bank earnings kicking off. Meghan Swiber, BofA Director of US Rates Strategy, expects stickier inflation in the near-term. Anastasia Amoroso, iCapital Chief Investment Strategist, says the US is on track for a soft landing. Pooja Sriram, Barclays US Economist, sees a mild, shallow recession.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Guy and Danny are joined by Stuart Sopp, CEO and Founder of Current, to discuss green shoots in the market (3:00), liquidity (8:00), junk fees (14:00), the bond market (16:00), being bearish in a bull market (20:00), gold (28:00), and their desert island albums (32:30). The co-hosts interview Anastasia Amoroso, Managing Director and the Chief Investment Strategist at iCapital, and talk about key takeaways from the Fed meeting (37:30), what could take stocks higher (47:30), her highest conviction ideas (56:00), and the AI craze (1:01:00). Guy's "Perfect Albums": https://twitter.com/GuyAdami/status/1669380861018480644?s=20 ---- See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/onthetape.  Learn more about Ro body: ro.co/tape ---- Shoot us an email at OnTheTape@riskreversal.com with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @OnTheTapePod. We're on social: Follow Dan Nathan @DanNathanRR on Twitter Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow Danny Moses @DMoses34 on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page

Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley Chief US Equity Strategist & Chief Investment Officer, says inflation will come down but "it's not going to be good for stocks." Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan Chief Economist & Head of Global Economic Research, suggests there could be a scenario in which the Fed "has to come back" if inflation doesn't go down. Anastasia Amoroso, iCapital Chief Investment Strategist, believes the Fed would need to go higher to really crack the economy. Mike Schumacher, Wells Fargo Global Head of Macro Strategy, says it's surprising to see the markets pricing in so much Fed easing. Tom Forte, DA Davidson Sr. Research Analyst, discusses Apple and AI. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Can the bullish breakout really be believed? Anastasia Amoroso of iCapital gives her expert market take. Plus, AMD held its AI investor day. Top chip analyst Stacy Rasgon of Bernstein explains how investors should trade the big event. And, Apple got hit with a downgrade from UBS today. Steve Kovach explains why the firm is turning lukewarm on the company after its record run… and what it could mean for the broader market. 

Investors always want to know what the next big thing is going to be. On the 15th episode of The Finimize Podcast, Eddie chats with Anastasia Amoroso, Chief Investment Strategist at iCapital. She is responsible for providing insight into private market investment opportunities for advisors and their high-net-worth clients. Previously, Anastasia was an Executive Director and the Head of Cross-Asset Thematic Strategy for J.P. Morgan Private Bank, where she identified and invested in emerging technologies and disruptive trends such as artificial intelligence, decarbonization, and gene therapy. In the conversation they discuss Anastasia's global macro outlook, analyze the state of the consumer, big tech earnings, the banking crisis and where she sees value in private markets.Partner with us: https://business.finimize.com/Subscribe To Finimize Newsletter: https://finimize.com/

Many investors and family offices have been frustrated by the 2023 market. As interest rates rise and inflation begins to abate, certain asset classes are nevertheless slow to reprice. Anastasia Amoroso, managing director and chief investment strategist at iCapital, joins WealthChannel's Andy Hagans to discuss how investors can succeed in a late stage market cycle. Show notes: https://wealthchannel.com/2023/04/anastasia-amoroso-129/

Anastasia Amoroso, Chief Investment Strategist for iCapital, rejoins the show to help decode the Fed's latest decision on interest rates and the curious language in its statement. Plus, what she is looking for inside bank balance sheets to determine just how healthy, or sick they actually are. And, despite the swirling fears around the banking sector, some of the riskiest assets are the best performers in the first quarter. Will that continue? Links for show notes: www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20230322.pdf https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html www.insiderinsights.com/newsletter/ https://www.investopedia.com/what-to-expect-for-the-markets-next-week-4584772 https://icapital.com/about-us/anastasia-amoroso/ https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/credit-cycle.asp https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketrisk.asp www.investopedia.com/terms/c/creditdefaultswap.asp

Anastasia Amoroso, Chief Investment Strategist for iCapital, rejoins the show to help decode the Fed's latest decision on interest rates and the curious language in its statement. Plus, what she is looking for inside bank balance sheets to determine just how healthy, or sick they actually are. And, despite the swirling fears around the banking sector, some of the riskiest assets are the best performers in the first quarter. Will that continue? Links for show notes: www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20230322.pdf https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html www.insiderinsights.com/newsletter/ https://www.investopedia.com/what-to-expect-for-the-markets-next-week-4584772 https://icapital.com/about-us/anastasia-amoroso/ https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/credit-cycle.asp https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketrisk.asp www.investopedia.com/terms/c/creditdefaultswap.asp

Thomas Hoenig, Former President of Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City & Former FDIC Vice Chairman, says policy-making needs some humility in the wake of the banking turmoil of the past week. Anastasia Amoroso, iCapital Chief Investment Strategist, says the Fed has to pause in the wake of SVB. Gerard Cassidy, RBC, Head of US Bank Equity Strategy, expects to see more banking regulation ahead. Alvaro Santos Pereira, OECD Chief Economist, says inflation still remains the biggest problem for the global economy See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Anastasia Amoroso, chief investment strategist at iCapital, says that while the market and economic fundamentals look pretty bad, those problems have been so obvious for so long that the market has adjusted to where it is now letting slight improvements in the data lead it higher. As a result, even if the numbers show just slight improvement, the market can react positively, which should make it that both the economy and market look much better late in 2023. Amoroso is concerned that the technicals overreacted to a good January, which could lead to short-term volatility or downturn, although she generally finds technicals showing a longer-term positive trend. In the ETF of the Week segment, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, revisits his pick from last week -- the classic Standard and Poor's 500 fund that started the exchange-traded fund business -- with a twist, making an equal-weight index fund his selection. And in the Market Call, Lauren Hill, portfolio manager and research analyst at Westwood Investment Management discusses large-cap and consumer-discretionary stocks.  

Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses are back with another What's the big takeaway from today's CPI report (3:40)? The guys offer insight on how Taiwan Semiconductor might be an early test for how earnings season and the second half of 2023 will look (10:00). The debt ceiling is looming, what is the Fed going to do (16:00)? Danny is taking momentum into the playoffs with his picks for Wild Card Weekend (26:05). Anastasia Amoroso joins the show again to discuss her outlook for 2023 (30:00). How is Anastasia thinking about a possible upcoming Fed rate pause (36:30)? Anastasia discusses the re-balancing we're seeing in the labor market and how she views earnings for 2023 (39:30). What does a “soft landing” actually look like (41:45)? Anastasia details how she thinks the China re-opening process will play out in the markets (47:45). Check out our show notes and transcript here ---- See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/onthetape.  ---- Shoot us an email at OnTheTape@riskreversal.com with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @OnTheTapePod. We're on social: Follow Dan Nathan @RiskReversal on Twitter Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow Danny Moses @DMoses34 on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page

Earnings season is about the heat up. But, will it extend this early-year rally in stocks or derail it? Anastasia Amoroso of iCapital gives her take. Plus, 5-star stock picks from Capital Wealth Planning's Kevin Simpson. He explains the big moves he's making in his portfolio. And, Tesla shareholder Bryn Talkington of Requisite Capital gives her take on the slide in auto stocks amid pricing problems from the EV maker.

Yesterday's print confirms that inflation pressures are easing and broadening, says Anastasia Amoroso. She discusses monitoring recent trends in inflation. She talks about how it might not be enough for the Fed to declare victory yet. She also notes defense plus opportunistic positioning is what makes the most sense right now. She then goes over Fed expectations following the latest inflation data. Finally, she mentions portfolio construction as inflation cools. Tune in to find out more about the stock market today.

The major averages were heading for solid gains throughout the session, but a hawkish tone in the Fed minutes put a pause on the rally. Anastasia Amoroso from iCapital weighs in on the Fed's messaging and the impact on her outlook. Cowen CEO Jeff Solomon discusses his outlook for IPOs in 2023 and what needs to happen to jumpstart new listings. Mark Zandi from Moody's breaks down the slew of job cuts in the tech sector, including news today of layoffs at Salesforce. Plus what Kevin McCarthy's contentious House Speaker bid means for the market, and the latest on Microsoft, Amazon, and Chinese tech.

Anastasia Amoroso, Chief Investment Strategist at iCapital, discusses the latest on the markets. She spoke with hosts Bryan Curtis and Paul Allen on "Bloomberg Daybreak Asia."See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

“I don't think you have really anything that's fundamental at play, and it's a lot of technicals.” Anastasia Amoroso commenting on the volatile movements in the market for the past week. She is a strong believer that the market has been overreacting to high frequency data and investors need to reset their expectations on when inflation would subside. Anastasia highlights the fact that U.S. Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads have not widen out despite the market's fear of credit stress issues.

Can markets find some sort of stability in the coming days ahead? Vertas Financial's Greg Branch, Citi Global's Kristen Bitterly and Anastasia Amoroso of iCapital all give their expert market take. Plus, Schwab's Omar Aguilar discusses how to protect your portfolio amid all of the volatility. And, Joe Terranova is back to break down the sectors that could have the most upside.===

The bears are circling as asset prices are being reset amid higher interest rates. Christine Benz and John Rekenthaler of Morningstar, and Anastasia Amoroso of iCapital, join Caleb at Investor Connection, a live event last week, for a conversation on how individual investors can reset their portfolios given the new market dynamics. Plus, why the Dot Plot, one of the most boring charts in economics and investing, is the most important data set for investors to pay attention to today. LINKS FOR SHOW NOTES https://www.icapitalnetwork.com/about-us/team/anastasia-amoroso/ https://www.morningstar.com/authors/30/christine-benz https://www.morningstar.com/authors/208/john-rekenthaler https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20220921.pdf https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/stock-market-crash-of-1987 https://www.c-span.org/video/?1444-1/president-reagan-stock-market-turbulence https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sinkingfund.asp https://www.youtube.com/c/investopedia https://registration.socio.events/e/investorconnection/promo-codes/CONNECT

The bears are circling as asset prices are being reset amid higher interest rates. Christine Benz and John Rekenthaler of Morningstar, and Anastasia Amoroso of iCapital, join Caleb at Investor Connection, a live event last week, for a conversation on how individual investors can reset their portfolios given the new market dynamics. Plus, why the Dot Plot, one of the most boring charts in economics and investing, is the most important data set for investors to pay attention to today. LINKS FOR SHOW NOTES https://www.icapitalnetwork.com/about-us/team/anastasia-amoroso/ https://www.morningstar.com/authors/30/christine-benz https://www.morningstar.com/authors/208/john-rekenthaler https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20220921.pdf https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/stock-market-crash-of-1987 https://www.c-span.org/video/?1444-1/president-reagan-stock-market-turbulence https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sinkingfund.asp https://www.youtube.com/c/investopedia https://registration.socio.events/e/investorconnection/promo-codes/CONNECT

A surprisingly hot inflation print sent the major averages plummeting on Tuesday, with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq posting their worst session since the early days of the pandemic. David Zervos from Jefferies, Anastasia Amoroso from iCapital, and Richard Bernstein from Richard Bernstein Advisors discuss the implications for the Fed's rate hike timeline. Dan Niles breaks down the trade in hard-hit tech, and explains why he thinks inflation will remain higher for longer than most people think. And the CEO of Wingstop talks about rising food costs, which jumped by the most since 1979.

It's the end of the world, and I feel fine.Check The Lead-Lag Report on your favorite social networks.Twitter: https://twitter.com/leadlagreport​​​​​YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/theleadlagreportFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/leadlagreport​​Instagram: https://instagram.com/leadlagreport​​​Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at www.leadlagreport.com and use promo code PODCAST30 for 2 weeks free and 30% off.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities.The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions.See disclosures for The Lead-Lag Report here: The Lead-Lag Report (leadlagreport.com)The Personal Finance PodcastSubscribe now and Master Your Money in Less than 30 Minutes Per Week! Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify

Richard Haass, Council on Foreign Relations President and Author, “The Bill of Obligations,” says China is increasingly turning up the level of alarm among its neighbors. Anastasia Amoroso, iCapital Chief Investment Strategist, doesn't expect the market to move materially higher from here. Brian Nagel, Oppenheimer Senior Analyst, says consumer spending is holding up quite well. Greg Daco, EY-Parthenon Chief Economist, explains why he thinks core inflation will stay persistent. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Is there a chance the bear market is now dead … or is the really off the mid-June lows just a giant head-fake? Anastasia Amoroso of iCapital weighs in. Plus, Goldman's Tony Pasquariello breaks down what he is seeing in this recent rebound. Plus, Barbara Ann Bernard of Wincrest Capital gives some top picks for your portfolio.

Anastasia Amoroso, Chief Investment Strategist at iCapital, discusses the latest on the markets. She spoke with hosts Doug Krizner and Paul Allen on "Bloomberg Daybreak Asia."See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Anastasia Amoroso, Chief Investment Strategist at iCapital, discusses markets and the economy as interest rates rise and inflation persists. June Grasso, host of “Bloomberg Law,” discusses the latest Supreme Court rulings on the last day of its term. Everett Millman, Chief Markets Analyst at Gainesville Coins, discusses crypto, Bitcoin, and the outlook for inflation and markets. John Fish, Suffolk Construction CEO and Chair of the Real Estate Roundtable, talks about the real estate market, rising mortgage interest rates, and construction. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Anastasia Amoroso, the chief investment strategist at iCapital, joined the latest episode of “What Goes Up” to discuss the market volatility that followed the US Federal Reserve's interest-rate hike and how hedge funds are attracting client interest again after years of languishing in the bull market.  “In this environment, where nothing seems to be working, investors are looking for something that is—and right now that is in the hedge fund space,” she says.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Laurence Boone, OECD Chief Economist, discusses the cut to their global growth forecast. Danny Blanchflower, Dartmouth College Economics Professor, says the OECD's forecast is too optimistic. Anastasia Amoroso, iCapital Chief Investment Strategist, says there is more and more evidence that we may have reached peak inflation. Ed Morse, Citigroup Global Head of Commodities Research, says "booming" US exports of petroleum products are driving the price of crude higher.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Major averages post 3-day losing streaks Avery Sheffield from VantageRock and Rockefeller Capital Management, Anastasia Amoroso from iCapital, and Dan Suzuki from Richard Bernstein Advisors discuss how to navigate the current environment. Plus, Jason Tauber from Neuberger Berman says despite the market volatility, there are still big opportunities in growth. And, Michael Santoli takes a look at “wrinkles in the sell-off” in his “Last Word.”

Stocks closed near the lows of the day. Adam Parker from Trivariate Research says the upcoming earnings season may stabilize the market. Plus, is there an alternative for stocks? Anastasia Amoroso from iCapital makes the case. Walter Isaacson is working on an Elon Musk biography and says it's not surprising that Musk decided not to join Twitter's board of directors. And, Michael Santoli's Last Word is “diversity.”

Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist, says there's a chance the Fed may need to hike rates past 4%. Kristina Kvien, U.S. Charge d'Affaires to Ukraine, says Turkey has been playing a positive role in its support of Ukraine. Anastasia Amoroso, iCapital Chief Investment Strategist, says now is the time to look at put options. Ebrahim Rahbari, Citi Global Head of FX Analysis, says the markets haven't decided whether to expect a slowdown or a recession. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Stocks staged a turnaround and closed just off session highs. Anastasia Amoroso from iCapital says the clock is ticking on a recession and the consumer is going to get caught in the crosshairs. Plus, is the Fed's attempt to rein in inflation a “high-stakes game of chicken”? Jurrien Timmer from Fidelity Investments weighs in. And, Barclays analyst Karen Short is making a big bet on the consumer and chooses Target as her “Most Valuable Pick.”

Anastasia Amoroso is the Chief Investment Strategist at iCapital Network. In this conversation, we talk about the market bottom, the price of oil, inflation, and future fed interest rates. ======================= LMAX Digital - the market-leading solution for institutional crypto trading & custodial services - offers clients a regulated, transparent and secure trading environment, together with the deepest pool of crypto liquidity. LMAX Digital is also a primary price discovery venue, streaming real-time market data to the industry's leading analytics platforms. LMAX Digital - secure, liquid, trusted. Learn more at LMAXdigital.com/pomp ======================= The Pod Pro Cover by Eight Sleep is the most advanced solution on the market for thermoregulation. It pairs dynamic cooling and heating with biometric tracking. Go to https://www.eightsleep.com/Pomp to check out the Pod Pro Cover and save $150 at checkout. Eight Sleep currently ships within the USA, Canada, and the UK. ======================= The world's 2nd largest crypto exchange, OKEx, has dropped the "E" to become OKX, reflecting its evolution from a traditional crypto exchange to a comprehensive, cross-platform crypto services provider. With OKX's decentralized platform and Web3 wallet, MetaX, you have full custody over your crypto. Explore DeFi, NFTs and play-to-earning gaming with the world's most powerful crypto exchange. Visit OKX.com to learn more. =======================

Anastasia Amoroso, Chief Investment Strategist for iCapital, joins the show with timely advice on how to find opportunities for alpha outside the U.S. stock market as the air comes out of inflated assets. Also, what the Fed said, and didn't say, that shook the market last week, and what that means for the pace and size of upcoming rate hikes. Plus tensions rise around Russia and Ukraine, roiling natural gas markets, and China rings in the Year of the Tiger.

Anastasia Amoroso, Chief Investment Strategist for iCapital, joins the show with timely advice on how to find opportunities for alpha outside the U.S. stock market as the air comes out of inflated assets. Also, what the Fed said, and didn't say, that shook the market last week, and what that means for the pace and size of upcoming rate hikes. Plus tensions rise around Russia and Ukraine, roiling natural gas markets, and China rings in the Year of the Tiger. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Anastasia Amoroso, iCapital Network Chief Investment Strategist, says the damage to the Turkish Lira has been self-inflicted. Mark McCormick, TD Securities Global Head of FX Strategy, says the market has completely lost confidence in Turkey. Michael Feroli, JPMorgan Chief U.S. Economist says the U.S. labor market looks pretty healthy and is getting back to normal. Wendy Schiller, Brown University Taubman Center for American Politics & Policy Director, says Democrats need to show they can still govern otherwise they'll lose suburban voters. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Guy, Dan, and Danny are joined by Danny's “The Big Short” colleagues Vincent Daniel and Porter Collins for a conversation about the state of the markets, Federal Reserve, and what to buy in this environment. Later, Dan and Guy go “Off The Tape” with Anastasia Amoroso of iCapital Network and discuss the September swoon for stocks (36:10), Anastasia's top picks for Q4, and how crypto fits in an investment portfolio (52:56).  More information on some of the topics referenced in this episode: The Big Short Stock Market's September Slump Exposes Messy Underside Stagflation fears intensify in signs of slowing growth Dollar hits one-year high as traders anticipate US interest rate rises Bed Bath & Beyond Tumble Shows Risks of Chasing Meme Stocks Surging Treasury yields batter ARK fund amid broad tech selloff Stats on Seasonality  A Breakout Year for Cryptocurrency Performance and Adoption ---- See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/onthetape.  ---- Shoot us an email at OnTheTape@riskreversal.com with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @OnTheTapePod. We're on social: Follow Dan Nathan @RiskReversal on Twitter Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow Danny Moses @DMoses34 on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page

Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets Head of U.S. Bank Equity Strategy amd Large Cap Bank Analyst, examines second-quarter results from JPMorgan. Anastasia Amoroso, iCapital Network Chief Investment Strategist, says there are more catalysts to come for the banking sector. Stephen Biggar, Argus Research Director of Financial Institutions Research, sees loan growth improving for banks. PepsiCo Vice Chairman and CFO Hugh Johnston discusses the company's fastest sales growth in a decade. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets Head of U.S. Bank Equity Strategy amd Large Cap Bank Analyst, examines second-quarter results from JPMorgan. Anastasia Amoroso, iCapital Network Chief Investment Strategist, says there are more catalysts to come for the banking sector. Stephen Biggar, Argus Research Director of Financial Institutions Research, sees loan growth improving for banks. PepsiCo Vice Chairman and CFO Hugh Johnston discusses the company's fastest sales growth in a decade. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

The first panel session is titled ‘What role does private capital have in mitigating climate change?' Our panellists are Gillian Tett, Editor-at-Large, US at the Financial Times; Guy Hands, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer, Terra Firma; Anastasia Amoroso, Executive Director and Head of Investment Strategy, JP Morgan Private Bank, New York; and Dr Andy Sloan, Deputy Chief Executive, Strategy, at Guernsey Finance. Tim Hames, Senior Adviser at FTI Consulting and former Director-General of the BVCA, will act as moderator.