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2 episodes with yardeni research
2 episodes with yardeni research
May 14, 2025 – What do the latest U.S.-China trade negotiations mean for markets, the economy, and your investments? Dr. Ed Yardeni, President and Chief Investment Strategist at Yardeni Research, discusses recent developments in U.S.-China trade...
When today's guest expert was last on this channel, he predicted that the financial markets would have a "sloppy" start to 2025, but then find their footing and rise to new highs -- possibly as high as 7000 on the S&P -- by the end of the year.Of course, that was before the new Administration took office and all that has happened since then.So, is he still as bullish with his year-end outlook for stocks?Or have recent developments like the Trump tariffs required a downshifting of expectations?To find out, we're fortunate to be joined by Dr. Ed Yardini, President of Yardeni Research.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#recession #bearmarket #bullmarket _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.
In this explosive episode of Soar Financially, Dr. Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research and Wall Street veteran, unpacks the chaos shaking the global financial system. From “Trump Tariff Turmoil” to a potential $5,000 gold price, Yardeni warns of policy mistakes, Fed paralysis, geopolitical tensions with China, and a fragile credit market teetering on the edge.We dive deep into stagflation risks, the Fed's credibility crisis, why gold is exploding, the dollar's uncertain future in a “new world disorder,” and China's silent financial war. Ed explains why the bond vigilantes are back—and why it matters now more than ever.#Gold #trumptariffs #recession2025 ----------Thank you to our #sponsor MONEY METALS. Make sure to pay them a visit: https://bit.ly/BUYGoldSilver------------
Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, gives his views on why he is Bullish and how he gets a 6000 target price on the S&P. Yardeni Research https://yardeni.com/Yardeni Quick Takes https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/WAIVER & DISCLAIMERIf you register for this webinar/interview you agree to the following: This webinar is provided for information purposes only. All opinions expressed by the individuals in this webinar/interview are solely the individuals' opinions and neither reflect the opinions, nor are made on behalf of, Bloor Street Capital Inc. Presenters will not be providing legal or financial advice to any webinar participants or any person watching a recorded version of the webinar. The investing ideas and strategies discussed on this webinar/interview are not recommendations to buy or sell any security and are not intended to provide any investment advise of any kind, but are made available solely for educational and informational purposes. Investments or strategies mentioned in this webinar/interview may not be suitable for your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any investment strategy discussed in this webinar/interview. All webinar participants or viewers of a recorded version of this webinar should obtain independent legal and financial advice. All webinar participants accept and grant permission to Bloor Street Capital Inc. and its representatives in connection with such recording. The information contained in this webinar/interview is current as of April, 2025 the date of this webinar/interview, unless otherwise indicated, and is provided for information purposes only.
Stocks coming off a tough February - Carl Quintanilla, Sara Eisen, and David Faber broke down the latest for markets on the heels of another weak data print top of the hour (ISM Manu/Construction Spend). Plus, a discussion on the outlook for 2025 – with Yardeni Research's Ed Yardeni, who's betting growth will slow in Q1 – but re-accelerate into the back half of the year… Also, more with one analyst calling Apple the “safe-haven trade” of big tech. Another key driver: Washington. From Trump's hopes for a “Crypto Reserve” to a new national investigation into lumber imports, the team talked market implications – and dove deep into the ecosystem for rare earth minerals with the biggest producer in the western hemisphere (MP Materials) after Trump's failed deal with Ukraine. Plus, a look at how China and retailers are prepping for tonight's tariffs deadline. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer
The stock market is at a crossroads. After the strongest back-to-back years for the S&P 500 since the late 1990s, investors are wondering what to expect in 2025. Will higher productivity, stronger earnings, and D.C. deregulation win out and propel equities higher? Or will higher-for-longer interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and “sticky” inflation hamstring markets? To cut through the fog and get some answers, I spoke with Eric Wallerstein, Chief Markets Strategist at Yardeni Research, for this week's MoneyShow MoneyMasters Podcast.Eric starts by sharing his background, which included stints at the New York Fed's repo desk and the Wall Street Journal prior to his joining Yardeni Research. We then pivot to a macro-focused discussion, one covering the latest inflation figures, the Federal Reserve's recent (and potential future) policy moves, and the likely impact of Trump Administration policy on hiring, investment, and capex spending. Next, Eric lays out what could go RIGHT for markets...and what could go WRONG for them...in the new year. But he emphasizes the positives, including what to expect with corporate earnings and GDP growth – and the one “great thing” that the economy has going for it.We then move on to the bond market's recent convulsions, a contrarian call he recently made, and the reasons why the U.S. looks poised to outperform other regions. Then we talk about the five market sectors he likes, and his one favorite group – one that has “a lot of runway” for potential gains. Finally, we discuss what he'll cover at the MoneyShow Masters Symposium Dallas, scheduled for April 4-6 at the Hilton DFW Lakes. Click here to register: https://www.mmsdallas.com/?scode=061246
Despite the recent and relentless rise in Treasury bond yields and a sell off in the stock market, Dr. Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, remains one of the most bullish strategists out there. Yardeni, who coined the term "Bond Vigilantes", outlines the risks, probabilities and opportunities facing investors today, and explains why he sees the S&P 500 topping 10,000 by the end of the decade. Plus, expensive stocks have pushed the equity risk premium to historical lows, but those hoping for it to rise better be careful what they wish for. LINKS FOR SHOW NOTES www.investopedia.com/what-to-expect-in-the-markets-this-week-877192 https://www.investopedia.com/hiring-surprisingly-surged-in-december-8772350 https://classic.foodandwine.com/ https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20180926tealbooka20180914.pdf https://yardeni.com/ https://yardeni.com/quicktakes/ https://www.investopedia.com/bond-vigilante-6386194 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Despite the recent and relentless rise in Treasury bond yields and a sell off in the stock market, Dr. Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, remains one of the most bullish strategists out there. Yardeni, who coined the term "Bond Vigilantes", outlines the risks, probabilities and opportunities facing investors today, and explains why he sees the S&P 500 topping 10,000 by the end of the decade. Plus, expensive stocks have pushed the equity risk premium to historical lows, but those hoping for it to rise better be careful what they wish for. LINKS FOR SHOW NOTES www.investopedia.com/what-to-expect-in-the-markets-this-week-877192 https://www.investopedia.com/hiring-surprisingly-surged-in-december-8772350 https://classic.foodandwine.com/ https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20180926tealbooka20180914.pdf https://yardeni.com/ https://yardeni.com/quicktakes/ https://www.investopedia.com/bond-vigilante-6386194 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Yardeni Research President, Chief Investment Strategist, and Founder Edward Yardeni discusses bond market expectations. He speaks with Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, has predicted the economy will "roar" through the 2020s and perhaps into the 2030s, propelled by productivity growth. It's a bullish recipe for markets, too. Barron's Senior Managing Editor Lauren R. Rublin and Deputy Editor Ben Levisohn talk with Yardeni about his Roaring 20s thesis, and his 2025 market outlook.
Well, this interview is being recorded the day after the Federal Reserve spooked markets by slowing the expected pace of future rate cuts. The S&P instantly dropped 3% on the news and bond yields spiked. Is this just temporary heartburn as the markets digest the news? Or might this signal that markets have just peaked? For perspective, we're fortunate to be joined by Dr. Ed Yardini, President of Yardeni Research. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support
Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to review his Roaring 2020s thesis for the US economy. Ed makes a compelling case for sustained economic growth, driven by rising productivity gains fuelled by technological advancements. The discussion covers expectations for the policy mix under the incoming Trump administration, including how fiscal developments could influence the Federal Reserve's actions. The conversation also examines developments in the bond markets, exploring whether meaningful deficit reductions can keep the bond vigilantes at bay. He shares his optimistic outlook on the stock market, despite elevated valuations, high concentration in the S&P 500 and speculative behaviour in certain areas. Finally, Ed offers his perspective on gold and questions whether Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are merely the modern equivalent of “digital tulips.”-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Ed on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:14 - (Re)Introduction to Ed Yardeni04:51 - How the incoming U.S. administration will impact the economy07:55 - Has Trump fought back the bond vigilantes?10:52 - Was the Fed cut unnecessary?13:20 - Strange decisions from the Fed16:14 - Will the Fed be true to their words?17:57 - Will inflation become sticky?19:29 - Yardeni's perspective on the neutral...
After waiting over three years for "one of the worst recessions ever anticipated that never happened," Edward Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, says that the economy is now moving forward without much recession worry, buoyed by consumer spending — especially from Baby Boomers — and rate cuts from the Federal Reserve that he considered mostly unnecessary. Yardeni sees the economy going through another "Roaring 20s" period, and while the one a century ago ended in the Great Depression, he does think that outcome is not inevitable provided the government can keep debt and deficit levels under control while riding out the benefits of the "Digital Revolution" that includes all of the excitement around artificial intelligence and technology. Kendall Dilley, portfolio manager at Vineyard Global Advisors says the market's technicals are showing all green lights for a continuing bull market, and investors should lean in and treat downturns as buying opportunities. Dilley makes a case for the Standard & Poor's 500 to reach 7,500, getting as high as 6,400 by year's end, with only "normal pullbacks" on the road to that higher level. Plus, we revisit a recent conversation with Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer at Merk Investments — manager of the ASA Gold and Precious Metals — on why gold has worked better as a geo-political hedge than as a buffer against inflation.
In this episode, Nik Bhatia sits down with Eric Wallerstein of Yardeni Research to dissect the forces driving today's financial markets. They explore how rising interest rates and evolving monetary policy are reshaping recession expectations and the resilience of the corporate bond market, dive into the Fed's cautious balance sheet management, the risks of private credit, and the impact of bond volatility on equity returns. The discussion highlights the effects of a strong dollar, the Treasury's strategy to manage the yield curve, and the interplay between the Fed and Treasury in shaping future policy. Eric draws from his experience at the New York Fed to analyze how these factors influence stock market profit margins, the housing market, and the global economic outlook, offering key insights into the shifting dynamics of financial markets. The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Unchained, the leader in Bitcoin financial services. Unchained empowers you to take full control of your Bitcoin with a collaborative multisig vault, where you hold two of three keys, and benefit from a Bitcoin security partner. Purchase Bitcoin directly into your cold storage vault and eliminate exchange risks with Unchained's Trading Desk. Unchained also offers the best IRA product in the industry, allowing you to easily roll over old 401(k)s or IRAs into Bitcoin while keeping control of your keys. Don't pay more taxes than you have to. Talk to us today. Visit https://thebitcoinlayer.com/unchained and use code TBL for $100 off when you create an account. Try Stamp Seed, a DIY kit that enables you to hammer your seed words into a durable plate of titanium using professional stamping tools. Take 15% off with code TBL. Get your Stamp Seed today! https://www.stampseed.com/shop/titanium-seed-phrase-storage-kits.html?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube. Subscribe to TBL's research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform. Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch Block Height 870410 Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: thebitcoinlayer@zbd.gg Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball #TheBitcoinLayer #NikBhatia #FinancialMarkets #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #RecessionOutlook #CorporateBonds #BondMarket #StrongDollar #YieldCurve #FedPolicy #TreasuryStrategy #BondVolatility #EquityReturns #EconomicInsights #HousingMarket #GlobalEconomy #PrivateCredit #MarketResilience #StockMarketTrends #EconomicShifts #FinancialAnalysis #FedAndTreasury #MarketDynamics #ProfitMargins #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentStrategies #Bloomberg #Analysis #Charts #Tradingview #InvestmentStrategy #MarketWatch #StockMarket #PassiveInvesting #IndexFunds #FinancialMarkets #MarketWatch #FreeMarket #FreeMarkets #Markets #USTreasury #TreasuryBills #BalanceSheet #FED #Debt #Inflation #Statistic #Rates #Interest #Asset #Bitcoin #Dollar #Sats #BTC #Gold #Market #Trading #Currency #Crypto #Analysis #Investment #News #Finance #Education #Blockchain #Mining #BitcoinMining #macro The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on Soundwise
Yardeni Research President, Chief Investment Strategist & Founder Ed Yardeni discusses how Trump's second term could push the "Roaring 2020's" stock market into the 2030's. Yardeni poke with Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Does a slower Fed mean smaller gains for stocks? Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research, Newedge's Cameron Dawson and Virtus' Joe Terranova debate where they stand. Plus, T. Rowe Price's Sebastein Page tells us why he is looking for opportunities to take on more risk right now. And, Charles Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders and Kevin Gordon reveal how they are positioning into year-end.
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sat down with Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research and YardeniQuickTakes.com. Ed is one of the most accurate and respected Wall Street strategists, and we were excited to discuss his views on the economy, markets, and forecasting. We covered a wide range of topics, including: Ed's outlook for inflation and the economy Why he believes we could be entering a "Roaring 20s" period for the stock market His thoughts on why we might see fewer Fed rate cuts than many expect The characteristics that make a good economic forecaster The potential impact of AI on the economy His views on the upcoming election and its market implications The long-term underperformance of value vs growth stocks Ed's approach to sector allocation and market breadth SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau
Interview recorded - 21st of August, 2024On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of welcoming on Ed Yardeni. Dr Ed is the President of Yardeni Research.During our conversation we spoke about his thoughts on the economy, potential for it being a new roaring twenties, productivity, normalisation of growth, interest rate decisions, impacts on markets and more. I hope you enjoy!0:00 - Introduction1:40 - Thoughts on global economy?4:40 - Why rolling recessions?11:04 - Employment data revision?13:08 - Illegal migration impact?15:05 - Normalisation of growth?17:16 - Interest Rates & Monetary policy22:38 - FED for a day?27:08 - Higher interest rates on deficit?30:26 - 90's soft landing again?32:07 - What will the FED do?34:05 - Which industries will perform well?38:11 - One message to takeaway from conversation?Dr. Ed Yardeni is the President of Yardeni Research, Inc., a provider of global investment strategies and asset-allocation analyses and recommendations. He previously served as Chief Investment Strategist of Oak Associates, Prudential Equity Group, and Deutsche Bank's US equities division in New York City. He was also the Chief Economist of CJ Lawrence, Prudential-Bache Securities, and EF Hutton. He taught at Columbia University's Graduate School of Business and was an economistwith the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He also held positions at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the US Treasury Department in Washington, D.C.Dr. Ed earned his PhD in economics from Yale University in 1976, havingcompleted his doctoral dissertation under Nobel Laureate James Tobin. Previously, he received a master's degree in international relations from Yale. He completed his undergraduate studies magna cum laude at Cornell University.Dr. Ed is frequently quoted in the financial press, including The Wall StreetJournal, the Financial Times, The New York Times, The Washington Post, and Barron's. He was dubbed “Wall Street Seer” in a Barron's cover story. He appears frequently on CNBC, Bloomberg Television, and Fox Business. See Dr. Ed's market calls as reported in the financial press.Dr Ed Yardeni:Website - https://yardeni.com/Twitter - https://x.com/yardeniQuicktakes - https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/YouTube - @YardeniResearch WTFinance -Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfniTunes -https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/anthony-fatseas-761066103/Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas
In this episode of Wealthion, host James Connor is joined by Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, to discuss the current state of the global economy and financial markets. Despite recent turbulence, Yardeni provides a surprisingly optimistic outlook, highlighting the resilience of the US economy and his predictions for the coming years. With insights on the Fed's policies, the impact of inflation, and the potential for a market rally, Yardeni's analysis offers invaluable guidance for investors navigating these uncertain times. Did you enjoy this episode? Hit the like button and let us know in the comments! This episode is sponsored by BetterHelp. Give online therapy a try at betterhelp.com/Wealthion and get on your way to being your best self. Timestamps: 00:00 - Introduction 01:37 - Discussion on the Federal Reserve and Inflation 04:25 - Fed Policy and Market Impact 05:51 - Predictions for Interest Rate Cuts 07:21 - Unemployment Rate and Job Market Analysis 11:28 - Impact of Government Policies and Global Economy 19:22 - Concerns About US Federal Debt 24:49 - Japan's Economic Situation and Global Impact 31:18 - US Economy Compared to Global Markets 35:25 - Market Valuations and Predictions 40:50 - Closing
Zach Jonson, chief investment officer at Stack Financial Management, says that while the stock market has been moving to record highs, "it wasn't healthy." He says that market valuations are overblown, with concentration in the index being more of a concern than at any time in history, which means that current conditions are lining up with some rare time periods, most notably the tech bubble days of the late 1990s, which ended turning ugly when the bubble burst. That's in contrast with the view from Eric Wallerstein, chief markets strategist at Yardeni Research, who says the Dow Jones Industrial Average will reach 60,000 and the Standard & Poor's 500 will hit 8,000 before the end of the current decade, and while that run could end up ugly at that point, any downturns in the interim are buying opportunities. Plus, John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors — chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance — provides an update on what's happened with closed-end funds through the first half of 2024, and Jaime Dunaway-Seale discusses Clever Real Estate's Gen Z Home Buyer Report, which showed that 60 percent of the generation just entering the workforces thinks they will never own a home.
Jul 25, 2024 – Dr. Ed Yardeni, President and Chief Investment Strategist of Yardeni Research, speaks with FS Insider about his current market outlook, how much farther he thinks US stocks could correct from here, and whether it's time...
Edward Yardeni is President of Yardeni Research. Jose Torres is Senior Economist at Interactive Brokers. Both market experts joined me for a MoneyShow MoneyMasters Podcast episode recorded from the floor of our Investment Masters Symposium Silicon Valley. Our goal? To talk growth, spending, and where investors should put their money in the rest of 2024.Ed started by explaining the economy's resilience in the face of higher interest rates – including the one thing Baby Boomers are doing to keep growth chugging along. He still thinks inflation will cool and recommends that the Fed should “take the rest of the year off.” Jose weighs in next on why financial conditions remain “quite buoyant, quite loose” and the one thing the Fed is “implicitly accepting” that works in favor of bullish investors. The conversation then shifts to banking sector credit risk and commercial real estate delinquencies...why short-term beats long-term when it comes to fixed-income investing...and which stock market groups and investing styles the two experts like. Ed closes things out by naming the best “shock absorber” for investors in this market – and the one big risk that could derail his bullish outlook.To get more IN-PERSON guidance from financial experts like Ed and Jose, be sure to join us for the MoneyShow Masters Symposium Las Vegas, set for Aug. 1-3, 2024 at the Paris Las Vegas. Click here to register: https://lasvegasmms.com/?scode=061246
Bloomberg Radio host Barry Ritholtz speaks to Dr. Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, Inc., a provider of global investment strategies and asset-allocation analyses and recommendations. He previously served as Chief Investment Strategist of Oak Associates, Prudential Equity Group, and Deutsche Bank's US equities division in New York City. He taught at Columbia University's Graduate School of Business and was an economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the US Treasury Department in Washington, D.C. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
As I often remind subscribers to Faster, Please!, predictions are hard, especially about the future. The economic boom of the 1990s came as a surprise to most economists. Equally surprising was that it ended so soon. Neither of these events caught Ed Yardeni off-guard. Some forecasters, Yardeni included, anticipated a new Roaring '20s for this century… only to be interrupted by the pandemic. But is it too late for this prediction to become a reality? According to Yardeni, not at all.Ed Yardeni is president of Yardeni Research, and he previously served as chief investment strategist at a number of investment companies, including Deutche Bank. He has additionally held positions at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and US Treasury Department. For more economic insights and investment guidance, visit yardeni.com.In This Episode* The '90s Internet boom (1:25)* The Digital Revolution (5:01)* The new Roaring '20s (9:00)* A cautious Federal Reserve (14:24)* Speedbumps to progress (18:18)Below is a lightly edited transcript of our conversationThe '90s Internet boom (1:25)Pethokoukis: Statistically speaking, the PC Internet boom that you first started writing about back in the early '90s ended in 2004, 2005. How surprising was that to economists, investors, policy makers? I, to this day, have a report, a 2000 report, from Lehman Brothers that predicted, as far as the eye could see, we would have rapid growth, rapid productivity growth for at least another decade. Now, of course, Lehman didn't make it another decade. Was that a surprise to people that we didn't have an endless productivity boom coming out of the '90s?Yardeni: I think it definitely was a surprise. I mean, it was surprising both ways. Not too many people expected to see a productivity boom in the second half of the 1990s, which is what we had. I did, as an economist on Wall Street. More importantly, Alan Greenspan was a big promoter of the idea that the technology revolution would in fact lead to better productivity growth and that that might mean better economic growth and lower inflation. And it didn't look that way for a while; then suddenly the Bureau of Economic Analysis went back and revised the data for the late 1990s and, lo and behold, it turned out that there was a productivity boom. And then it all kind of fizzled out, and it raises the question, why did that happen? Why was it such a short lived productivity boom? And the answer is—well, let me give you a personal anecdote.I worked at Deutsche Bank in New York in the late 1990s, and I had to be very careful walking down the corridors of Deutsche Bank in midtown Manhattan not to trip over Dell boxes. Everybody was getting a Dell box, everybody was getting the Dell boxes loaded up with the Windows Office. And when you think back on what that was able to do in terms of productivity, if you had a lot of secretaries on Selectric typewriters, Word could obviously increase productivity. If you had a lot of bookkeepers doing spreadsheets, Excel could obviously increase productivity. But other than that, there wasn't really that much productivity to be had from the technology at the time. So again, where did that productivity boom come from? It couldn't have been just secretaries and bookkeepers. Now the answer is that the boxes themselves were measured as output, and so output per man hour increased dramatically. It doesn't take that many workers to produce Dell boxes and Windows Office and Windows software. So as a result of that, we had this big boom in the technology output that created its own productivity boom, but it didn't really have the widespread application to all sorts of business model the way today's evolution of the technology boom is, in fact, capable of doing.What you've just described, I think, is the explanation by, for instance, Robert Gordon, Northwestern University, that we saw a revolution, but it was a narrow revolution.It was the beginning! It was the beginning of a revolution. It was the Technology Revolution. It started in the 1990s and it's evolved, it's not over, it's ongoing. I think a big development in that revolution was the cloud. What the cloud allowed you to do was really increase productivity in technology itself, because you didn't need to have several hundred people in the IT department. Now, with the cloud, one person can upgrade the software on hundreds of computers, and now we're renting software so that it automatically upgrades, so that's been a big contribution to productivity.The Digital Revolution (5:01)So perhaps I spoke too soon. I talked about that boom—that '90s boom—ending. Perhaps I should have said it was more of a pause, because it seems what we're seeing now, as you've described it, is a new phase of the Digital Revolution—perhaps a broader phase—and, to be clear, if I understand what you've been speaking about and writing about, this isn't an AI story, this predates what we're seeing in the data now, it predates ChatGPT, when do you date this new phase beginning—and you mentioned one catalyst perhaps being the cloud, so—when did it begin and, again, what are the data markers that you've been looking at?I don't remember the exact date, but I think it was 2011 where my little investment advisory got ourselves on the Amazon cloud, and that's been a tremendous source of productivity for us, it saves us a lot of money. We used to have a couple of servers on a server farm in the old days, and every now and then it would go down and we'd have to reach somebody on the server farm and say, “Would you mind turning it on and off?” Remember the word “reboot?” I don't remember the word “reboot” being used in quite some time. Amazon's never gone down, as far as I can recall. I think they've always had their systems in Virginia, and they had a backup somewhere overseas, but it's always worked quite well for us.But now we're finding with some of the other software that's available now, we can actually cut back on our Amazon costs and use some of these other technologies. There's lots of technologies that are very user-friendly, very powerful, and they apply themselves to all sorts of different businesses, and, as you said, it's not just AI. I think the cloud—let's put it around 2011 or so—was a huge development because it did allow companies to do information processing in a much more efficient way, and the software gets automatically updated, and with what it used to take hundreds of people in an IT department to do, now you can do it with just one, which is what we, in fact, have, just one person doing it all for us. But I would say that's as good a point as any. But along the way here, what's really changed is the power of the software that's available, and how cheap it is, and how you can rent it now instead of having to own it.That's a fantastic example, and, of course, we want to see these sort of examples at some point reflected in the data. And going through some of your writings, one period that you were very focused on was, we may have seen a bottom, maybe at the end of 2015, before the pandemic, where we saw the slowest, I think 20-quarter average… annual average growth rate of productivity.0.5 annual rate.But by 2019, leading into the pandemic, it tripled. Is the story of that tripling, is it the cloud? And that certainly has to be one reason why you, among other people, thought that we might see a new Roaring '20s, right into the teeth of the pandemic, unfortunately.Well, it's not so unfortunate, I mean, clearly nobody saw the pandemic coming, but we weathered the storm very, very well, and I don't think we can come to any conclusion about productivity during the pandemic, it was all over the place. At first, when we were on lockdown, it actually soared because we were still producing a lot with fewer workers, and then it took a dive, but we're now back up to two percent. We had a really, really good year last year in productivity. The final three quarters of last year, we saw above-trend growth in productivity. And so we're already now back up to two percent, which, again, compared to 0.5, is certainly moving in the right direction, and I don't see any particular reason why that number couldn't go to three-and-a-half, four-and-a-half percent per year kind of growth—which sounds delusional unless you look back at the chart of productivity and see that that's actually what productivity booms do: They get up to something like three-and-a-half to four-and-a-half percent growth, not just on a one-quarter basis, but on a 20-quarter trailing basis at an annual rate.The new Roaring '20s (9:00)This forecast predates the word “generative AI,” predates ChatGPT, and, in fact, if I understand your view, it's even broader than information technology. So tell me a bit about your broader Roaring '20s thesis and the technological underpinnings of that.One of the developments we've seen here, which has been somewhat disconcerting, is the challenge to globalization. I'm a big believer in free trade, and the free trade creates more economic growth, but, on the other hand, we have to be realistic and realize that China hasn't been playing by the rules of the game. And so now, as a result, we're seeing a lot of production moving out of China to other countries, and we're seeing a lot of on-shoring in the United States, so we're building state-of-the-art manufacturing facilities that are full of robots and automation that I think are going to bring manufacturing productivity back quite significantly.Everybody seems to be of the opinion that the reason productivity is weak is because of services. It's actually manufacturing. What happened is, when China joined the World Trade Organization back at the end of 2001—December 11th, 2001, to be exact—manufacturers said hasta la vista to the United States, and we've had absolutely no increase in industrial production capacity since that time, since 2001. And so companies basically gave up on trying to do anything, either expand capacity or improve productivity of manufacturing here, when they could do it so much more cheaply over in China.I think what's really the most important thing that's changed here is, demographically, we've run out of workers. Certainly even in China, we don't have a growth in the working-age population. We don't have a growth in the working-age population here. And when it comes to skilled labor, that's even more the case, so there's tremendous incentive and pressure on companies to figure out, well, how do we deal with an environment where our business is pretty good, but we can't find the workers to meet all the demand? And the answer has to be productivity. Technology is part of the solution. Managing for productivity is another part of the solution. Giving workers more skills to be more productive is a very good use of money, and it makes workers sticky, it makes them want to stay with you because you're going to have to pay them more because they're more knowledgeable, and you want to pay them more because you want to keep them.I think a big part of the productivity story really has to do with the demographic story. China, of course, accelerated all that with the One Child Policy that, as a result, I kind of view China as the world's largest nursing home. They just don't have the workforce that they used to have. Japan doesn't have the workforce. Korea, Taiwan, all these countries… If you want to find cheap, young labor, it's still in Africa and in India, but there are all sorts of issues with how you do business in these countries. It's not that easy. It's not as simple as just saying, “Well, let's just go there.” And so I think we are seeing a tremendous push to increase productivity to deal with the worldwide labor shortage.We have three really good quarters of productivity growth and, as you mentioned, economists are always very cautious about those productivity numbers because of revisions, they're volatile. But if this is something real and sustainable, it should also reflect in other parts of the economy. We should see good capital investment numbers for here on out if this is a real thing.I think not only capital investment, but also real wages. Productivity is fairy dust. I mean it's a win-win-win situation. With better-than-expected productivity, you get better-than-expected, real GDP, you get lower-than-expected unit labor costs, which, by the way, unit labor costs, which reflect hourly wages offset by productivity, they're under two percent—or they're around two percent, I should say more accurately—and that's highly correlated with the CPI, so the underlying inflation rate has already come down to where the Fed wants it to be. This is not a forecast, this is where we are right now with unit labor costs. So there's a very strong correlation between productivity growth and the growth of inflation-adjusted compensation. So you can take average hourly earnings, you can take hourly compensation…There are a bunch of measures of wages, and divide them by the consumption deflator, and you'll see on a year-over-year basis that the correlation is extremely high. And, theoretically—it's the only thing I learned when I went to college in economics that ever made any sense to me, and that is—people in a competitive marketplace—it doesn't have to be perfectly competitive, but in a relatively competitive marketplace—people get paid their real wage. The productivity the workers have, they get paid in their real wages, and we've seen, for all the talk about how “standards of living have stagnated for decades,” if you look at average hourly earnings divided by the consumption deflator, it's been going up 1.4 percent since 1995. That's a doubling of the standard of living every 40 years. That's pretty good progress. And if productivity grows faster than that, you'll get even a better increase in real wages.If we don't have workers, if there's a shortage of workers—though, obviously, immigration puts a whole different spin on these things—but for what we know now in terms of the workers that are available that are allowed to work, they are getting paid higher real wages. I know that prices have gone up, but people sometimes forget that wages have also gone up quite a bit. But again, it's fairy dust: You get better real growth, you get lower inflation, you get real wages going up, and you get better profit margins. Everybody wins.A cautious Federal Reserve (14:24)In the '90s, we had a Fed chairman who was super cautious about assuming a productivity boom, but eventually saw the reality of it and acted accordingly. It seems to me that we have a very similar such situation where we have a Federal Reserve chairman who is certainly aware of these numbers, but seems to me, at this point, certainly reluctant to make decisions based on those numbers, but you would expect that to change.Yeah, well, I mean if you just look at the summary of economic projections that the Federal Open Market Committee… that comes out on a quarterly basis reflecting the consensus of Fed Chair Powell's committee that determines monetary policy, they're looking for real GDP growth of less than two percent per year for the next couple of years, and they're obviously not anticipating any improvement in productivity. So I think you're right, I think Fed Chair Powell is very much aware that productivity can change everything; and, in fact, he's talked about productivity, he knows the equation. He says, “Look, it's okay to have wages growing three percent if inflation's two percent.” Then he implied, therefore, that productivity is growing one percent. So he's basically in the one percent camp, recognizing that, if productivity is more than that, then four percent wage growth is perfectly fine and acceptable and non-inflationary. But at this point he's, in terms of his pronouncements, he's sticking to the kind of standard line of economists, which is, maybe we'll get one percent, and if we get one percent and the Fed gets inflation down, let's say to only two-and-a-half percent, then wages can grow three-and-a-half percent, and right now wages are growing at a little bit above. I think we're growing more like four percent, so the wage numbers aren't there yet, but they could be the right numbers if, in fact, productivity is making a comeback.If we hit productivity gains of the sort you've talked about—three percent, four percent by the end of the decade—that is a radically different-looking economy than what the Fed, or the CBO, or even a lot of Wall Street firms are talking about. So it's not just this statistic will be different; we're looking at really something very different. I would assume a much higher stock market; I'm not sure what interest rates look like, but what does that world look like in 2030?These are all good questions, they're the ones I'm grappling with. I mean, should interest rates be lower or should they be higher? It's the so-called real interest rates, so if the economy can live with a Fed funds rate of, let's say five and a half percent—five and a quarter, five and a half percent, which is what it is now—and the bond yield at four and a half percent and the economy is doing perfectly fine and inflation's coming down, and it's all because productivity is making comeback, then those rates are fine. They're doing their job, they're allocating capital in a reasonable fashion, and capital is going to get allocated to where capital should go. You mentioned before that, in order to increase productivity, we are going to need more capital investments.Here the Fed has raised interest rates dramatically, and most of the economists said, “Oh, that's going to lead to a big drop in capital,” because capital spending is dependent on interest rates, and that hasn't happened at all, really, because the technology capital spending—which now, in current dollars, technology capital spending accounts for about 50 percent of capital spending in nominal terms. You can't do it in real terms because there's an indexing problem. But in nominal terms, half of capital spending is technology. And by the way, that's an understatement because that's information technology, hardware, it's software and R&D. It doesn't even include industrial machinery, which is mostly technology, hardware and software these days. And even the trucking industry, the truck is sort of the device, and then there's a software that runs the device logistics. There's so many areas of the economy that have become very high-tech that people still think of as a low-tech industry.Speedbumps to progress (18:18)If this doesn't happen. Well, I suppose one thing we could say may have happened is that we've really overestimated these technologies and they're not as transformative. But let me give you two other things that people might point to as being—and you've written a bit about these—that could be speed bumps or barriers. One: debt, possible debt crisis. And two: this energy revolution, climate change transition, which we really have a lot of government involvement and a lot of government making decisions about allocating resources. So what is the risk that those two things could be a slow things down, speed bump, or what have you?There's three issues that you're raising. One is sort of the private sector issue of whether a lot of this artificial intelligence and technology stuff is hype, and it's not going to have the impact on productivity. The other one, as you mentioned, is the two government issues, government's meddling in the climate change policies, and then the government having this irresponsible fiscal excesses.With regards to artificial intelligence, even though I should be a cheerleader on this, because I should say, “See, I told you so…” I have been telling people I told you so because I said, I'll tell you when the stock market started to discount the Roaring '20s was November 30th, 2022 when Open AI introduced ChatGPT, and that's when these AI stocks went crazy. A week later I signed up for the $20 a month version of ChatGPT, figuring, “This is great! I'm not going to have to work anymore. This is going to do all my writing for me. I'll just ask it the question and say, ‘What do you think we should be writing about this? Go ahead and write about it.'” Well, it took me more time to correct all the errors for what it produced than it would've taken me just to write the damn thing.So I kind of cooled off to chat GPT, and I come to the conclusion that, from what I see right now in terms of what is available to the public and what's tied to the internet, it's really autofill on speed and the steroids. You know when you type Word and sometimes it guesses what you're going to say next? That's what this thing does at the speed of light. But, you know, “haste makes waste,” as Benjamin Franklin used to say, and it makes a lot of mistakes. And, by the way, garbage in, garbage out. It could create even more garbage on the internet because I've seen situations where it starts quoting its own sources that would never have existed in the first place. So there's some really funky stuff when you have it in the public domain.But I think that when you have it sort of segmented off and it only has the data that you need for your specific industry, and it's not polluted by other the open source ability to take any data, I think it may very well work very well. But it's basically just a really fast, lightning-speed calculations. So I think it has lots of potential in that regard, but I think there is a certain amount of hype. But look, so much money is being spent in this area. I can't believe it's all going to go for naught. I mean, we saw a lot of money spent in the late 1990s on internet and dotcoms and all that. The internet's still here, but the dotcoms are gone.With regards to the government policies, I have this very simplistic view that it's amazing how well this country has done despite Washington. Washington just keeps meddling and meddling, it just keeps picking our pockets, keeps interfering, comes up with industrial policies that, to a large extent, don't work. And yet, the economy continues to do well because working stiffs like you and me and people listening in, that's what we do for a living: we work. We don't have time for politics. So the politicians have plenty of time to figure out how to pick our pockets. Well, we have to just figure out, “Okay, given their meddling, how do we make our businesses better, notwithstanding these challenges.” Maybe it's really more my hope that we somehow in the private sector figure out how to keep doing what we're doing so well, including increasing productivity, in the face of the challenges that the government poses with its policies.But then, if we are successful in the private sector at creating good productivity growth that gives you better real GDP growth, that real growth is one way to reduce the debt burden. It doesn't make it go away and it would be a lot better if we didn't have it, but some of these projections of how this debt is going to eat us all up may be too pessimistic about their assumptions for economic growth. But look… I guess I had a happy childhood, so I tend to be an optimist, but I can't say anything good at all about this deficit problem. And we did get a little glimpse in August, September, October, of what happens when the bond market starts to worry about something like supply. It worried about it for three months, and then lower inflation and less supply of long-term bonds helped to rally the bond market. But here we are back at four and a half percent, and if we do have some more fears about inflation coming back, then we could very well have a debt crisis more imminently. People like Ray Dalio has been saying that we're under verge of getting it. I think it's an issue, but I don't think it's an issue that's going to be calamitous at this time.The problems people talk about, you have the skepticism about free enterprise, or the skepticism about trade, and immigration. I would like to see what this country looks like in 2030 with the economic scenario you've just outlined: Strong real wage growth. Maybe it's too simplistic, but I think people being able to see in their everyday lives, big gains year after year, I think the national mood would be considerably different.Well, I think, even now, if you look at real consumption per household, it's $128,000, it's at an all-time record high. And yeah, I guess the rich might be gluttons and might eat more than the rest of us, and maybe they have bigger and more houses and cars, but there just aren't enough of them to really explain how it could possibly be that real consumption per household is at an all-time record high. And I know that's materialistic, but I can't think of a better way to measure the standard of living than looking at real consumption per household: All-time record high.Faster, Please! is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Micro Reads▶ Business/ EconomicsMeta, in Its Biggest A.I. Push, Places Smart Assistants Across its Apps - NYTGoogle streamlines structure to speed up AI efforts - FTTesla's Layoffs Won't Solve Its Growing Pains - Wired▶ PolicyPut Growth Back on the Political Agenda - WSJRegulate AI? How US, EU and China Are Going About It - BbergThree ways the US could help universities compete with tech companies on AI innovation - MIT▶ AI/DigitalThe AI race is generating a dual reality - FTSearching for the Next Big AI Breakthrough at the TED Conference - BbergThese photos show AI used to reinterpret centuries-old graffiti - NSEnvironmental Damage Could Cost You a Fifth of Your Income Over the Next 25 Years - WiredAI now surpasses humans in almost all performance benchmarks - New Atlas▶ Biotech/HealthA new understanding of tinnitus and deafness could help reverse both - New ScientistBeyond Neuralink: Meet the other companies developing brain-computer interfaces - MIT▶ RoboticsHello, Electric Atlas: Boston Dynamics introduces a fully electric humanoid robot that “exceeds human performance” - IEEE Spectrum▶ Space/TransportationNASA may alter Artemis III to have Starship and Orion dock in low-Earth orbit - Ars▶ Up Wing/Down WingTechnological risks are not the end of the world - Science▶ Substacks/NewslettersFive things to be optimistic about in America today - NoahpinionWho Governs the Internet? - HyperdimensionalMeta is Surprisingly Relevant in Generative AI - AI SupremacyLarry Summers isn't worried about secular stagnation anymore - Slow BoringFaster, Please! is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit fasterplease.substack.com/subscribe
Edward Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, says the economy is resilient enough to handle current levels of interest rates, and that better economic growth will allow earnings to drive the stock market higher even as anticipated rate cuts from the Federal Reserve are put off until 2025. Yardeni says he expects the rest of this decade to resemble the Roaring 20s, without irrational exuberance but also without the Great Depression to follow as it did a hundred years ago. In The Danger Zone, David Trainer at New Constructs calls shenanigans on Root Inc., noting that price targets on the stock have been raised by over 500 percent, but profitability forecasts have not been going up, suggesting the stock is due for a hard fall after its recent big bounce up. In the Market Call, James Abate of Centre Asset Management -- manager of the Centre American Select Equity fund -- talks
CPI came in above expectations and stocks fell while yields rose. Yardeni Research's Ed Yardeni and BD8 Capital's Barbara Doran on how to play the market action while Renaissance Macro's Neil Dutta on what today means for the Fed. Zelman & Associates' Alan Ratner on housing stocks slide. Ibrahim AlHusseini on Tesla's slide.
Stocks have delivered a great ride over the past year and a half. That has attracted retail investors back into the markets with a vengeance. Household equity ownership is currently near an all-time high. Does this bull market still have plenty of room left to run? And if so, what are the skeptics misunderstanding? For insight, we have the good fortune to turn to Dr. Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research. While not dismissive of the many potential risks to the market's momentum, Ed maintains price targets on the S&P 500 index of 5,400 for 2024 (we're nearly there, so he may need to raise it soon), 6,000 for 2025 and 6,500 for 2026. Follow Ed at https://yardeni.com/ or https://yardeniquicktakes.com/ SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bullmarket #ai #cloudcomputing
In this conversation, Liz Ann Sonders interviews Dr. Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research. They discuss this unique economic cycle and the concept of rolling recessions. Ed explains his optimism in the face of widespread pessimism about an impending recession. Yardeni also introduces the idea of "Postmodern Monetary Theory" and its impact on the economy. He emphasizes the importance of the labor market, employment numbers, and consumer spending in preventing recessions. Yardeni discusses the role of productivity and artificial intelligence in shaping the future economy and he highlights concerns about market sentiment and potential risks, such as geopolitical crises and inflation.Finally, Kathy and Liz Ann offer their outlook on the coming week's economic data.You can learn more about Dr. Ed Yardeni on his website, Yardeni.comOn Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important DisclosuresThe information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.All corporate names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.The information and content provided herein is general in nature and is for informational purposes only. It is not intended, and should not be construed, as a specific recommendation, individualized tax, legal, or investment advice. Tax laws are subject to change, either prospectively or retroactively. Where specific advice is necessary or appropriate, individuals should contact their own professional tax and investment advisors or other professionals (CPA, Financial Planner, Investment Manager) to help answer questions about specific situations or needs prior to taking any action based upon this information.Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.International investments involve additional risks, which include differences in financial accounting standards, currency fluctuations, geopolitical risk, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses, and cannot be invested in directly. For additional information, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.(0324-UB2T)
Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, speaks on the Fed's plans to lower interest rates and current state of US Economy with Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro and Lisa AbramowiczSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
-Ed Yardeni, Founder & President, Yardeni Research-Jim Bianco, President & Macro Strategist, Bianco Research-Neil Dutta, Head of US Economic Research, Renaissance Macro ResearchEd Yardeni of Yardeni Research says the bull market is here to stay, and predicts the S&P 500 will reach 6,000 by next year. Jim Bianco of Bianco Research says bonds are being left out of the 'everything rally', and inflation won't likely drop below 3% until the fall at the earliest. Neil Dutta, Head of US Economic Research at Renaissance Macro, says the Fed has the space to ease policy conditions modestly as long as the labor market remains strong. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Ed Yardeni is president of Yardeni Research, as well as a markets and economics expert with decades of experience on Wall Street. He is also the driving force behind yardeniquicktakes.com, a comprehensive investment research and commentary website. In this MoneyShow MoneyMasters Podcast interview, Ed explains why he's so positive on the outlook for the stock market – something that earned him the nickname “Wall Street's Most Bullish Forecaster” in a recent article.Ed believes we aren't in a recession and we won't be in a recession anytime soon. He sees the Federal Reserve only cutting interest rates twice in 2024 – if that – but believes markets can handle that just fine. Ditto for the “resilient” economy. One thing that has helped: The Fed has gotten better at “Whac-a-Mole” in the wake of the Great Financial Crisis, intervening to keep things like the early-2023 bank failures from spiraling out of control and leading to a massive credit crunch.Ed goes on to share a truly contrarian take on commercial real estate...his three favorite sectors for the quarters ahead...why this environment looks like the mid-1990s...and the one thing that DOES worry him most right now. Finally, he lays out a roadmap for why we should see the S&P 500 hit 5,400 by year end, 6,000 a year later, and 6,500 in 2026. If you want to learn more from Ed in PERSON, be sure to see him speak at the Investment Masters Symposium Silicon Valley, set for May 7-9, 2024 at the Hyatt Regency San Francisco Airport. Click here to register: https://www.siliconvalleyims.com/?scode=061246
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Paul SweeneyMarch 15th, 2024Featuring: Ed Yardeni, President at Yardeni Research, on next week's Fed decision and potential for soft landing Sarah Hunt, Chief Markets Strategist at Alpine Woods Capital Investors Saleha Mohsin, Senior Washington Correspondent with Bloomberg News, on politics and her new book Bloomberg's Lisa Mateo with her Newspaper Headlines Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.wealthion.com. Join James Connor of @BloorStreetCapital in an enlightening conversation with renowned economist Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research @edyardeni7397 ) exploring the intricate dynamics of the 2024 market and global economic trends. Dive into Ed's bullish perspective on the US economy and markets, understand the geopolitical concerns shaping global trade, and uncover the potential scenarios that could influence our economic future. Don't miss these valuable insights for savvy investors and financial enthusiasts. #globaleconomy #economicinsights #investing2024 #marketpredictions #wealthbuilding #podcast #financialinsights #chinaeconomy #geopolitics --------------------- At Wealthion, we show you how to protect and build your wealth by learning from the world's top experts on finance and money. Each week we add new videos that provide you with access to the foremost specialists in investing, economics, the stock market, real estate and personal finance. We offer exceptional interviews and explainer videos that dive deep into the trends driving today's markets, the economy, and your own net worth. We give you strategies for financial security, practical answers to questions like “how to grow my investments?”, and effective solutions for wealth building tailored to 'regular' investors just like you. Let us help you prepare your portfolio just in case the future brings one or more of the following: inflation, deflation, a bull market, a bear market, a market correction, a stock market crash, a real estate bubble, a real estate crash, an economic boom, a recession, a depression, or another global financial crisis. Put the wisdom from the money & markets experts we feature on Wealthion into action by scheduling a free consultation with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors, who will work with you to determine the right next steps for you to take in building your wealth. SCHEDULE YOUR FREE WEALTH CONSULTATION with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors here: https://www.wealthion.com/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKMeK-HGHfUFFArZ91rzv5A?sub_confirmation=1 Follow us on Twitter https://twitter.com/wealthion Follow us on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/Wealthion-109680281218040 ____________________________________ IMPORTANT NOTE: The information, opinions, and insights expressed by our guests do not necessarily reflect the views of Wealthion. They are intended to provide a diverse perspective on the economy, investing, and other relevant topics to enrich your understanding of these complex fields. While we value and appreciate the insights shared by our esteemed guests, they are to be viewed as personal opinions and not as official investment advice or recommendations from Wealthion. These opinions should not replace your own due diligence or the advice of a professional financial advisor. We strongly encourage all of our audience members to seek out the guidance of a financial advisor who can provide advice based on your individual circumstances and financial goals. Wealthion has a distinguished network of advisors who are available to guide you on your financial journey. However, should you choose to seek guidance elsewhere, we respect and support your decision to do so. The world of finance and investment is intricate and diverse. It's our mission at Wealthion to provide you with a variety of insights and perspectives to help you navigate it more effectively. We thank you for your understanding and your trust.
What's the outlook for stocks and bonds this year? Join Barron's senior writer Lauren Foster for a conversation with Dr. Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, on his outlook for the economy and financial markets.
Ed Yardeni, President and Chief Investment Strategist at Yardeni Research joins us today to discuss the re-emergence of the bond vigilantes, a term Ed coined four decades ago. We discuss why bond investors are pushing up long-term bond yields and what are the prospects are for a debt crisis in the US. Ed outlines his view that we may see “rolling recessions” rather than a sharp economic downturn but that he has recently increased his probability of a hard landing. We examine the parallels between the current cycle and the past, particularly the 1990s and discuss whether the recent improvement can be sustained over the medium term and what it mean mean for equity markets. -----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Edward on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:22 - Introduction to Ed Yardini07:07 - Why has the economics profession got it wrong again?11:06 - What should we feel the maximum impact of the tightening?14:43 - Why are we seeing a change in bond yields?19:18 - Are we spiralling into a crisis?25:19 - The outlook for the debt crisis29:08 - Will AI save us?32:22 - Analysing productivity and growth36:05 - Learning from history - what is different this time?41:40 - The baby boom generation -...
On this episode of On The Tape, Dan, Guy and Danny discuss rising rates (2:00), de ja vu to 2021 (3:15), the energy market (11:10), the China threat(14:20), Q3 earnings (19:45), CarMax (23:00), Ryan Cohen/meme stocks (26:25), and Danny's NFL picks (29:15). Later, Guy and Dan are joined by Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research to discuss his street cred as a top Wall Street strategist/economist (33:30), the Fed creating chaos in the bond market (38:20), why the Fed might get it right (45:30), the rolling recession (47:20), the consumer (49:00), the yield curve (53:50), his market outlook (57:00), Japan (1:00:35), and Ed's offering for retail investors (1:03:00). About the Show: On The Tape is a weekly podcast with CNBC Fast Money's Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses. They're offering takes on the biggest market-moving headlines of the week, trade ideas, in-depth analysis, tips and advice. Each episode, they are joined by prominent Wall Street participants to help viewers make smarter investment decisions. Bear market, bull market, recession, inflation or deflation… we're here to help guide your portfolio into the green. Risk Reversal brings you years of experience from former Wall Street insiders trading stocks to experts in the commodity market. Check out our show notes here Learn more about Ro body: ro.co/tape See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/onthetape. Shoot us an email at OnTheTape@riskreversal.com with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @OnTheTapePod. We're on social: Follow Dan Nathan @RiskReversal on Twitter Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow Danny Moses @DMoses34 on Twitter Follow Liz Young @LizYoungStrat on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page
Depuis des décennies, les investisseurs ont appris que la bourse se valorise "en moyenne" 15 fois ses bénéfices. Mais ce PER moyen est-il gravé dans le marbre ou a-t-il évolué dans le temps ? Comment peut-il évoluer à l'avenir ? Sources: JP Morgan Asset Management & Yardeni Research
Edward Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, says it is possible that long-term recession predictors like the inverted yield curve and leading indicators may not be right this time, but mostly because the economy has been going through a series of recessions in various sectors. At the same time as those niche downturns, Yardeni says there have been simultaneous recoveries occurring in other portions of the economy, creating a counterbalance that has kept the United States out of a full-blown recession and which appears likely to keep it out of any protracted decline. Also on the show, John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors and the Active Investment Company Alliance, talks about the widest discounts the closed-end fund industry has seen in decades and how that is a big buy signal right now. Plus, David Trainer of New Constructs puts ride-share company Lyft back in The Danger Zone, noting that its recent rebound shouldn't fool anyone into thinking the company is out of the woods and looking solid for the future.
Ed Yardeni, Founder and President of Yardeni Research, talks about a ‘Nirvana Scenario' for bonds. Bloomberg News Technology Reporter Alex Barinka discusses Elon Musk changing Twitter's logo, replacing its signature blue bird with a stylized X. Katie Thomas, Lead at the Kearney Consumer Institute, shares her thoughts on the consumer mania around the Barbie movie. And we Drive to the Close with Alan Zafran, Founding Partner and Co-CEO at IEQ Capital.Hosts: Carol Massar and Matt Miller. Producer: Paul Brennan.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Ed Yardeni, Founder and President of Yardeni Research, talks about a ‘Nirvana Scenario' for bonds. Bloomberg News Technology Reporter Alex Barinka discusses Elon Musk changing Twitter's logo, replacing its signature blue bird with a stylized X. Katie Thomas, Lead at the Kearney Consumer Institute, shares her thoughts on the consumer mania around the Barbie movie. And we Drive to the Close with Alan Zafran, Founding Partner and Co-CEO at IEQ Capital.Hosts: Carol Massar and Matt Miller. Producer: Paul Brennan.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Jul 13, 2023 – Dr. Ed Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, joins FS Insider to discuss his bullish outlook on the US economy and stock market. Ed explains how the US already experienced a 'rolling recession'...
Is true that many of the experts on this channel so far this year did not predict the markets would be up as strongly as they are right now. Today's guest is one of the few who argued for more optimism. What did he see? And what did the bears miss? To find out, we're fortunate to speak with economist and investment strategist Ed Yardeni, president of the excellent research firm Yardeni Research. ************************************************* At Wealthion, we show you how to protect and build your wealth by learning from the world's top experts on finance and money. Each week we add new videos that provide you with access to the foremost specialists in investing, economics, the stock market, real estate and personal finance. We offer exceptional interviews and explainer videos that dive deep into the trends driving today's markets, the economy, and your own net worth. We give you strategies for financial security, practical answers to questions like “how to grow my investments?”, and effective solutions for wealth building tailored to 'regular' investors just like you. There's no doubt that it's a very challenging time right now for the average investor. Above and beyond the recent economic impacts of COVID, the new era of record low interest rates, runaway US debt and US deficits, and trillions of dollars in monetary and fiscal stimulus stimulus has changed the rules of investing by dangerously distorting the Dow index, the S&P 500, and nearly all other asset prices. Can prices keep rising, or is there a painful reckoning ahead? Let us help you prepare your portfolio just in case the future brings one or more of the following: inflation, deflation, a bull market, a bear market, a market correction, a stock market crash, a real estate bubble, a real estate crash, an economic boom, a recession, a depression, or another global financial crisis. Put the wisdom from the money & markets experts we feature on Wealthion into action by scheduling a free consultation with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors, who will work with you to determine the right next steps for you to take in building your wealth. SCHEDULE YOUR FREE WEALTH CONSULTATION with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors here: https://www.wealthion.com/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKMeK-HGHfUFFArZ91rzv5A?sub_confirmation=1 Follow Adam on Twitter: https://twitter.com/menlobear Follow us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Wealthion-109680281218040 #stockmarketprediction2023 #bullmarket #recessionsoftlanding ************************************************* IMPORTANT NOTE: The information and opinions offered in this video by Wealthion or its interview guests are for educational purposes ONLY and should NOT be construed as personal financial advice. We strongly recommend that any potential decisions and actions you may take in your investment portfolio be conducted under the guidance and supervision of a quality professional financial advisor in good standing with the securities industry. When it comes to investing, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections may not reflect actual future performance. All investments involve risk and may result in partial or total loss.
Part 2 of 2 We continue our interview with Ed Yardeni, an experienced economist, strategist, and Fed watcher who has been closely following the Fed throughout his 40-year investment career. Yardeni is the author of “Fed Watching for Fun and Profit: A Primer for Investors” and head of his own global investment strategy firm, Yardeni Research. He believes that anticipating the actions of the Federal Reserve System's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is critical to successful investing. Despite the historically aggressive pace of interest rate hikes over the past year, Yardeni thinks the Fed is done hiking interest rates for now. We will discuss whether "Don't Fight the Fed" still works as an investment strategy. WEALTHTRACK episode 1944 broadcast on Apr 28, 2023 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/does-dont-fight-the-fed-still-work-as-an-investment-strategy-strategist-ed-yardeni-responds/ Bookshelf: Fed Watching for Fun & Profit, A Primer for Investorshttps://amzn.to/42amRwr --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/wealthtrack/support
Will Amazon's earnings keep the momentum going for the mega-caps? Evercore's Mark Mahaney gives his take ahead of those key numbers. Plus, stocks got a big pop in today's session with the Dow jumping more than 500 points. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research breaks down the crucial, final moments of trade. And, T. Rowe Price's Sebastien Page weighs the odds of a “market zombie apocalypse.”
Part 1 of 2 After a tough 2022, big tech stocks are back and leading the market rally. According to research firm Strategas, ten stocks, including Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, Tesla, Amazon, Alphabet, Salesforce, AMD, and Broadcom, have accounted for 90% of the S&P 500's year-to-date gains. This dominance of a handful of stocks has investors facing some interesting choices, including cash, which is back with money market funds offering yields as high as 5%, and gold, which has recently traded near record territory at over two thousand dollars an ounce. All of this is happening against a backdrop of the highest interest rates in years, stress in the banking system, and a Federal Reserve under pressure to pause its fight against inflation. To discuss the outlook for the economy and markets, and the best course for investors, we are joined by Ed Yardeni, President and Chief Investment Strategist of Yardeni Research, a PhD economist, long-time Fed watcher, and investment strategist who is widely followed by institutional investors. WEALTHTRACK episode 1942 broadcast on April 14, 2023. More info: https://wealthtrack.com/navigating-todays-investment-crosscurrents-with-veteran-macro-strategist-ed-yardeni/ Bookshelf: In Praise of Profits! : https://amzn.to/3ogciJC Predicting the Markets: A Professional Autobiography: https://amzn.to/3o7dGOp --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/wealthtrack/support
A regional bank in the United States sends ripples across global financial markets. Silicon Valley Bank the banking hub for startups not just in Palo Alto but had footprints in India, Canada EU and even China. Did SVB get too hot too soon or was it a case of poor risk mismanagement with bad investment decisions? Will this spell big trouble for little banks or will it bring in good news by way of a pausing Fed? Host Anupriya Nair, explores answers to these questions with voices across the ecosystem: Joining in on the podcast today a full line up-: From The VC World Hemant Taneja is CEO and managing director of global VC firm General Catalyst, backers of legendary companies like Stripe, Snap, Samsara, Airbnb, Kayak and Gusto. Hemant took the lead in getting more than 110 VC firms to show collective support towards Silicon Valley Bank (Please Link Hemant Taneja Twitter under his name, Tag LinkedIn for General Catalyst and tag the post of on LinkedIn for the statement) Narendra Rathi is an Investment Director with Softbank and is also part of SoftBank's India Vision Fund. From The Startup Corner Cuneyt Buyukbezci is a serial startup founder and is currently Chief Executive Officer, Co-founder at tech startup Mergeflo which banks with SVB. Cuneyt calls the SVB debacle a Lehman moment for startups not for the contagion but for the shock value lessons learnt. Nitish Mittersain is the CEO and Founder of listed Indian Gaming firm Nazara who had exposure to the tune of $7.7 million to SVB via two subsidiaries. Nitish anticipates startup will need to up their game when it comes to risk management and diversification and choose stability over ease to ensure stability. From Wall Street Dr Edward Yardeni, a market veteran based in New York and is President for Yardeni Research and www.yardeniquicktakes.com. Ed belongs to the camp that believes that SVB debacle will showcase the FOMC that the damage is done and rates should stop hiking as early as the March meeting. Credits: WION, Bloomberg Television, CNN, Sky News Australia, MSNBC, NBC Television If you like this episode from Anupriya, check out her other episodes on Survivor Island: The Startup Finale, Downsizing to Down Rounds, Nirav Modi: Extradition or Asylum - The Scam Explained, Call of Duty: The Inflation Warzone and more! You can follow our host Anupriya on her social media: Twitter and Linkedin Catch the latest episode of ‘The Morning Brief' on ET Play, The Economic Times Online, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, JioSaavn, Amazon Music and Google Podcasts.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The economy, as any investor knows or will quickly learn, is not the same as the stock market. What's happening today resembles the Great Inflation of the 1970s. Talk of stagflation, recession, and hard and soft landings—it can make your head spin to see how quickly things have unfolded. In this week's episode of Global Macro Update, Dr. Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, joins Ed D'Agostino to discuss today's urgent storylines, as well as the two sectors Dr. Yardeni favors for long-term investors and how turbulent times can lead to a future led by productivity. To learn more about Dr. Ed Yardeni, you can read his bio here. It includes links to his book publications, a complimentary trial of his research service, and his LinkedIn newsletter.
The days ahead could change the road of this market for months to come, with the Fed meeting starting tomorrow and earnings from more big tech names and the all-important jobs report on Friday. Trivariate's Adam Parker breaks down what is at stake. Plus, the ultimate bull versus bear debate between Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research and Eric Johnston of Cantor Fitzgerald spar over their market forecasts. And, is this year's early rally really sustainable? Skybridge Capital's Anthony Scaramucci explains his forecast for stocks and the Fed.
Barron's senior managing editor Lauren R. Rublin and deputy editor Ben Levisohn speak with Dr. Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research on the outlook for financial markets, industry sectors, and individual stocks.
Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee discuss what the latest round of cooling inflation data means for stocks from here. Plus, Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research calls in to break it all down. Also, Nelson Peltz vs. Disney, the Committee debate whether the proxy fight can bring value back to Disney. And later, we've got some Calls of the Day on Cleveland Cliffs, American Tower, and ServiceNow - the Committee weighs in.
Nov 9 – FS Insider speaks with Dr. Ed Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist of Yardeni Research. Ed previously served as an economist at the NY Fed, held positions at the Federal Reserve board of governors, and at the US Treasury...
Aug 18 – FS Insider speaks with Dr. Ed Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist of Yardeni Research. Ed discusses his outlook on the economy, the markets, the yield curve, modern monetary theory, and says that we are facing...
While the US is technically in a recession, with two negative quarters of GDP growth in the first half of 2022, several leading economists would say otherwise. Look no further than Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius, who recently pointed to solid second-quarter earnings as proof of recession risk rolling over. Or JP Morgan's global head of macro quantitative and derivatives research, Marko Kolanovic, who remains pro-risk, steadfast that the probability of a recession is low. Then, of course, there's former Deutsche Bank chief economist Ed Yardeni (now of Yardeni Research), who recently noted that the technical indicators are pointing in the direction of the bulls. But that's all very US-focused. How does this fading risk impact Aussie stocks? Glad you asked. In this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Ben Clark from TMS Capital and Henry Jennings from Marcus Today for their analysis of three stocks that have been hit hard by recession fears. Plus, they each name their number one pick that could soar if the risk of recession is truly behind us. Note: This episode of Buy Hold Sell was filmed on Wednesday 17th August 2022. You can read an edited transcript below: https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-5-stocks-to-soar-as-recession-risk-rolls-over/
Dr. Ed Yardeni, the founder, president and Chief Investment Officer of Yardeni Research on why the stock market may have bottomed in June, and what key health indicators we should focus on to see if the patient is on the road to full recovery. Plus, Yardeni shares his favorite investing and finance shows and movies, and why his favorite term, "Bond Vigilantes", is about to become popular again. LINKS FOR SHOW NOTES https://www.yardeni.com/ https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/ https://www.yardeni.com/#StockMarketFundamentalsMetrics https://www.amazon.com/dp/B077VGFZBD/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_ep_dp_w1IyAb30XKCAR https://insight.factset.com/topic/earnings https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/deflation.asp https://ir.wingstop.com/news-and-events/news/press-release-details/2022/Wingstop-Inc.-Reports-Fiscal-Second-Quarter-Financial-Results/default.aspx
Dr. Ed Yardeni, the founder, president and Chief Investment Officer of Yardeni Research on why the stock market may have bottomed in June, and what key health indicators we should focus on to see if the patient is on the road to full recovery. Plus, Yardeni shares his favorite investing and finance shows and movies, and why his favorite term, "Bond Vigilantes", is about to become popular again. LINKS FOR SHOW NOTES https://www.yardeni.com/ https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/ https://www.yardeni.com/#StockMarketFundamentalsMetrics https://www.amazon.com/dp/B077VGFZBD/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_ep_dp_w1IyAb30XKCAR https://insight.factset.com/topic/earnings https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/deflation.asp https://ir.wingstop.com/news-and-events/news/press-release-details/2022/Wingstop-Inc.-Reports-Fiscal-Second-Quarter-Financial-Results/default.aspx
Proverbs 21:5 tells us that, Steady plodding brings prosperity; hasty speculation brings poverty. Nowhere is that more true than with your investments. We'll talk about that today on MoneyWise. There are two types of margin when it comes to your money. One is good the other is very, very bad. The good kind is the margin in your budget. It's money left over after paying all of your bills and obligations. We sometimes call it discretionary income. You need this margin so that you can save for emergencies and invest for the future. That's why we call it good and so does God's Word. Proverbs 21:20 says, Precious treasure and oil are in a wise man's dwelling, but a foolish man devours it. Now, the other kind of margin involves your investments, and it's really a form of gambling. Thankfully, margin investing is generally prohibited in qualified retirement accounts, like your 401k or IRA. But that still leaves regular brokerage accounts, where margin investing is not only allowed, in many cases, it's encouraged by brokerages. According to Yardeni Research, investors who used margin currently owe around $750 billion dollars. That figure is down from a year ago, so the trend is heading in the right direction but that still leaves an enormous risk for margin investors, especially with the market's current volatility. MARGIN INVESTING So what exactly is margin investing? It's when you borrow money from your brokerage to invest more than you otherwise could with your own money. You're actually betting that the stocks you buy with margin money will increase in value. If they do, you're a winner, but if they don't, you're in for trouble. Here's an example. Let's say you inherit $50,000 from your rich uncle. You can't put the money in your 401k or IRA because you can only fund those accounts with earned income. So you open a regular brokerage account, like a Fidelity, Vanguard or Schwab. But then you hear about this amazing opportunity to invest on margin. The Federal Reserve allows investors to borrow from their brokerage up to 50% of the purchase price of stock. What does that mean for your $50,000? It means you can actually buy $100,000 worth of stock, doubling your holdings. If the stock increases in value, your gains would be twice what you'd make with just the $50,000. But that's one giant if. If the stock declines, you're on the hook for the losses. In theory, you could lose your entire portfolio if the stock went to zero because your initial $50,000 is collateral against what you borrowed. Don't think that can happen? In 2000, Enron stock was selling for around $90 a share. A year later after a horrific accounting scandal Enron stock was selling for 26 cents a share. Investors lost billions. Now, why would a brokerage want you to invest on margin? When you think about it, it's sort of like borrowing chips from a casino to gamble with. A lot of folks would never dream of doing that, but investing on margin is really the same thing. And brokerages make it easy to do because they charge interest on the margin money they loan increasing their revenues. And since your loan is collateralized by the money you put in their risk of losing is practically nil. Now, you must apply to invest on margin, and provide financial details just like you would when you apply for a mortgage, but how hard is that? One popular investing platform, Robinhood, has gotten a bit of a bad reputation for pushing margin investing too hard and earning 5% interest on the margin money it loans. Of course, when the value of stocks bought with this leveraged money goes up, everyone is happy. But when it drops, you're the only loser, and potentially a big loser. If the value of the stock bought with borrowed money drops low enough, as it certainly did with Enron, you'll experience what's known as a margin call. That's when your brokerage suddenly demands more money from you to hold your investment. That will happen automatically when the value of your total $100,000 investment drops to $25,000. That's the 25% maintenance margin required by law. But many brokerages will issue a margin call well before that. If you can't come up with the additional funds within what is usually a short time frame, the brokerage can then liquidate your investment meaning they take the money you put in to cover their losses. The key to successful investing is to have a well-balanced portfolio and to hold it for a very long time. Investing requires patience so we can't urge you enough never invest with margin. The risk is simply too great. On today's program, Rob also answers listener questions: ● Should you tithe on a 401k? If so, how so? ● What factors determine whether the closing costs on a mortgage refinance are fair? ● How can someone gift an inheritance? ● How does Christian Healthcare Ministries compare to medical insurance? ● Would it be wise to invest in commercial real estate? RESOURCES MENTIONED: ● CHministries.org Remember, you can call in to ask your questions most days at (800) 525-7000 or email them to Questions@MoneyWise.org. Also, visit our website at MoneyWise.org where you can connect with a MoneyWise Coach, join the MoneyWise Community, and even download the free MoneyWise app. To support this ministry financially, visit: https://www.oneplace.com/donate/1085/29
Proverbs 21:5 tells us that, Steady plodding brings prosperity; hasty speculation brings poverty. Nowhere is that more true than with your investments. We'll talk about that today on MoneyWise. There are two types of margin when it comes to your money. One is good the other is very, very bad. The good kind is the margin in your budget. It's money left over after paying all of your bills and obligations. We sometimes call it discretionary income. You need this margin so that you can save for emergencies and invest for the future. That's why we call it good and so does God's Word. Proverbs 21:20 says, Precious treasure and oil are in a wise man's dwelling, but a foolish man devours it. Now, the other kind of margin involves your investments, and it's really a form of gambling. Thankfully, margin investing is generally prohibited in qualified retirement accounts, like your 401k or IRA. But that still leaves regular brokerage accounts, where margin investing is not only allowed, in many cases, it's encouraged by brokerages. According to Yardeni Research, investors who used margin currently owe around $750 billion dollars. That figure is down from a year ago, so the trend is heading in the right direction but that still leaves an enormous risk for margin investors, especially with the market's current volatility. MARGIN INVESTING So what exactly is margin investing? It's when you borrow money from your brokerage to invest more than you otherwise could with your own money. You're actually betting that the stocks you buy with margin money will increase in value. If they do, you're a winner, but if they don't, you're in for trouble. Here's an example. Let's say you inherit $50,000 from your rich uncle. You can't put the money in your 401k or IRA because you can only fund those accounts with earned income. So you open a regular brokerage account, like a Fidelity, Vanguard or Schwab. But then you hear about this amazing opportunity to invest on margin. The Federal Reserve allows investors to borrow from their brokerage up to 50% of the purchase price of stock. What does that mean for your $50,000? It means you can actually buy $100,000 worth of stock, doubling your holdings. If the stock increases in value, your gains would be twice what you'd make with just the $50,000. But that's one giant if. If the stock declines, you're on the hook for the losses. In theory, you could lose your entire portfolio if the stock went to zero because your initial $50,000 is collateral against what you borrowed. Don't think that can happen? In 2000, Enron stock was selling for around $90 a share. A year later after a horrific accounting scandal Enron stock was selling for 26 cents a share. Investors lost billions. Now, why would a brokerage want you to invest on margin? When you think about it, it's sort of like borrowing chips from a casino to gamble with. A lot of folks would never dream of doing that, but investing on margin is really the same thing. And brokerages make it easy to do because they charge interest on the margin money they loan increasing their revenues. And since your loan is collateralized by the money you put in their risk of losing is practically nil. Now, you must apply to invest on margin, and provide financial details just like you would when you apply for a mortgage, but how hard is that? One popular investing platform, Robinhood, has gotten a bit of a bad reputation for pushing margin investing too hard and earning 5% interest on the margin money it loans. Of course, when the value of stocks bought with this leveraged money goes up, everyone is happy. But when it drops, you're the only loser, and potentially a big loser. If the value of the stock bought with borrowed money drops low enough, as it certainly did with Enron, you'll experience what's known as a margin call. That's when your brokerage suddenly demands more money from you to hold your investment. That will happen automatically when the value of your total $100,000 investment drops to $25,000. That's the 25% maintenance margin required by law. But many brokerages will issue a margin call well before that. If you can't come up with the additional funds within what is usually a short time frame, the brokerage can then liquidate your investment meaning they take the money you put in to cover their losses. The key to successful investing is to have a well-balanced portfolio and to hold it for a very long time. Investing requires patience so we can't urge you enough never invest with margin. The risk is simply too great. On today's program, Rob also answers listener questions: ● Should you tithe on a 401k? If so, how so? ● What factors determine whether the closing costs on a mortgage refinance are fair? ● How can someone gift an inheritance? ● How does Christian Healthcare Ministries compare to medical insurance? ● Would it be wise to invest in commercial real estate? RESOURCES MENTIONED: ● CHministries.org Remember, you can call in to ask your questions most days at (800) 525-7000 or email them to Questions@MoneyWise.org. Also, visit our website at MoneyWise.org where you can connect with a MoneyWise Coach, join the MoneyWise Community, and even download the free MoneyWise app. To support this ministry financially, visit: https://www.oneplace.com/donate/1085/29
Proverbs 21:5 tells us that, Steady plodding brings prosperity; hasty speculation brings poverty. Nowhere is that more true than with your investments. We'll talk about that today on MoneyWise. There are two types of margin when it comes to your money. One is good the other is very, very bad. The good kind is the margin in your budget. It's money left over after paying all of your bills and obligations. We sometimes call it discretionary income. You need this margin so that you can save for emergencies and invest for the future. That's why we call it good and so does God's Word. Proverbs 21:20 says, Precious treasure and oil are in a wise man's dwelling, but a foolish man devours it. Now, the other kind of margin involves your investments, and it's really a form of gambling. Thankfully, margin investing is generally prohibited in qualified retirement accounts, like your 401k or IRA. But that still leaves regular brokerage accounts, where margin investing is not only allowed, in many cases, it's encouraged by brokerages. According to Yardeni Research, investors who used margin currently owe around $750 billion dollars. That figure is down from a year ago, so the trend is heading in the right direction but that still leaves an enormous risk for margin investors, especially with the market's current volatility. MARGIN INVESTING So what exactly is margin investing? It's when you borrow money from your brokerage to invest more than you otherwise could with your own money. You're actually betting that the stocks you buy with margin money will increase in value. If they do, you're a winner, but if they don't, you're in for trouble. Here's an example. Let's say you inherit $50,000 from your rich uncle. You can't put the money in your 401k or IRA because you can only fund those accounts with earned income. So you open a regular brokerage account, like a Fidelity, Vanguard or Schwab. But then you hear about this amazing opportunity to invest on margin. The Federal Reserve allows investors to borrow from their brokerage up to 50% of the purchase price of stock. What does that mean for your $50,000? It means you can actually buy $100,000 worth of stock, doubling your holdings. If the stock increases in value, your gains would be twice what you'd make with just the $50,000. But that's one giant if. If the stock declines, you're on the hook for the losses. In theory, you could lose your entire portfolio if the stock went to zero because your initial $50,000 is collateral against what you borrowed. Don't think that can happen? In 2000, Enron stock was selling for around $90 a share. A year later after a horrific accounting scandal Enron stock was selling for 26 cents a share. Investors lost billions. Now, why would a brokerage want you to invest on margin? When you think about it, it's sort of like borrowing chips from a casino to gamble with. A lot of folks would never dream of doing that, but investing on margin is really the same thing. And brokerages make it easy to do because they charge interest on the margin money they loan increasing their revenues. And since your loan is collateralized by the money you put in their risk of losing is practically nil. Now, you must apply to invest on margin, and provide financial details just like you would when you apply for a mortgage, but how hard is that? One popular investing platform, Robinhood, has gotten a bit of a bad reputation for pushing margin investing too hard and earning 5% interest on the margin money it loans. Of course, when the value of stocks bought with this leveraged money goes up, everyone is happy. But when it drops, you're the only loser, and potentially a big loser. If the value of the stock bought with borrowed money drops low enough, as it certainly did with Enron, you'll experience what's known as a margin call. That's when your brokerage suddenly demands more money from you to hold your investment. That will happen automatically when the value of your total $100,000 investment drops to $25,000. That's the 25% maintenance margin required by law. But many brokerages will issue a margin call well before that. If you can't come up with the additional funds within what is usually a short time frame, the brokerage can then liquidate your investment meaning they take the money you put in to cover their losses. The key to successful investing is to have a well-balanced portfolio and to hold it for a very long time. Investing requires patience so we can't urge you enough never invest with margin. The risk is simply too great. On today's program, Rob also answers listener questions: ● Should you tithe on a 401k? If so, how so? ● What factors determine whether the closing costs on a mortgage refinance are fair? ● How can someone gift an inheritance? ● How does Christian Healthcare Ministries compare to medical insurance? ● Would it be wise to invest in commercial real estate? RESOURCES MENTIONED: ● CHministries.org Remember, you can call in to ask your questions most days at (800) 525-7000 or email them to Questions@MoneyWise.org. Also, visit our website at MoneyWise.org where you can connect with a MoneyWise Coach, join the MoneyWise Community, and even download the free MoneyWise app. To support this ministry financially, visit: https://www.oneplace.com/donate/1085/29
Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee discuss the state of the tech trade as NVIDIA earnings loom large this afternoon. Plus, Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research cuts his S&P Outlook, he joins us to explain why. And later, Pete Najarian shares some Unusual Activity he's seeing in two names.
Households in the United States are now spending an estimated $5,000 per year on gasoline, a figure that's almost doubled since the year before, when the average household spending was $2,800, Yardeni Research reports.
Chris Vermeulen, chief market strategist at The Technical Traders, says that 'the red flags are in the air that the market is ready to roll over,' and while he sees the current rally continuing for another month or two, any upward moves right now are setting up for a bear market, a downward move of more than 25 percent. "Somebody putting money into almost anything right now is carrying a ton of risk," Vermeulen says. "Everything is very overpriced." Also on the show, Chuck looks back at the completion of the NCAA men's basketball tournament on Monday and uses it as a metaphor for building a portfolio, and we revisit a recent discussion with Edward Yardeni, chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research.
Brad Lamensdorf, editor of the Lamensdorf Market-Timing Report and chief executive officer of Active Alts, says that investors can expect a lot of 'sub-surface volatility throughout the entire year," but all of that chop amounts to the market getting past the bigger-than-expected gains of 2020 and 2021. Lamensdorf says that most market sentiment gauges and indicators are negative but that is creating some pockets of opportunity, though they are hard to spot amid bear-market bounces. Also on the show, Edward Yardeni of Yardeni Research returns for a second day, this time to talk about his latest book, "In Praise of Profits," Michael Bell of Primark Capital discusses how private-equity investments can bring something to a portfolio that most investors are missing, and Simon Lack of SL Advisors -- the firm behind the American Energy Independence Index -- returns to talk about energy stocks in the Market Call.
Edward Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, says that the current wage-price-rent spiral is likely to spur businesses to spend money to increase the productivity of workers. If that innovation and change occurs -- and Yardeni believes there will be a 'productivity boom' -- a decade that started out pretty badly could instead turn into the Roaring 2020s. Yardeni says that solid economic underpinning will make it that inflation and interest rate hikes will not turn into a repeat of the 1970s, avoiding deep, long recessions or worse even while conditions feel bad. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com looks to emerging markets and internet/e-commerce for his ETF of the Week, and Ryan Jacob, chief investment officer of the Jacob Funds, talks technology stocks in the Market Call.
As Apple closes in on a three trillion dollar valuation, Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee debate whether this is a sign of the rally's strength. Plus, Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research on why this is still a bull market for stocks. Plus, Lululemon surging, on pace for its best month since May 2020. Is this the best athletic stock to own? And later, Jon Najarian shares Unusual Activity he's seeing in two names.
Stocks turned lower following hawish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Could rising rates sink stocks? Ed Yardeni from Yardeni Research weighs in. Plus, top investor Keith Meister from Corvex Management reveals his top stock picks. And, Michael Santoli sounds off on his last word: Hard road to a soft landing?
Dr. Ed Yardeni, economist and President of Yardeni Research, discusses his new book “In Praise of Profits,” the pivot by Jerome Powell from healing unemployment to fighting inflation, his near-term outlooks on economic growth and inflation (28:52), his bullish case ... Read More
Dr. Ed Yardeni is the President of Yardeni Research, Inc., a provider of global investment strategies and asset-allocation analyses and recommendations for institutional investors. In this podcast, we discuss his new book, In Praise of Profits, review economic activity from 2021, and look ahead to 2022. Dr. Yardeni earned his PhD in economics from Yale University in 1976, a master's degree in international relations from Yale, and completed his undergraduate studies magna cum laude at Cornell University. He previously served as the Chief Investment Strategist and Chief Economist of several Wall Street firms and asset managers and was an economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, held positions at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the US Treasury Department in Washington, D.C., and taught at Columbia University's Graduate School of Business. Dr. Yardeni is frequently quoted in the financial press, including The Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, The New York Times, The Washington Post, and Barron's. He was dubbed “Wall Street Seer” in a recent Barron's cover story. He also appears frequently on CNBC, Bloomberg Television, and Fox Business. This podcast is hosted by Rick Ferri, CFA, a long-time Boglehead and investment adviser. The Bogleheads are a group of like-minded individual investors who follow the general investment and business beliefs of John C. Bogle, founder and former CEO of the Vanguard Group. It is a conflict-free community where individual investors reach out and provide education, assistance, and relevant information to other investors of all experience levels at no cost. The organization supports a free website at Bogleheads.org, and the wiki site is Bogleheads® wiki. Since 2000, the Bogleheads' have held national conferences in major cities around the country. There are also many Local Chapters in the US and even a few Foreign Chapters that meet regularly. New Chapters are being added on a regular basis. All Bogleheads activities are coordinated by volunteers who contribute their time and talent. This podcast is supported by the John C. Bogle Center for Financial Literacy, a non-profit organization approved by the IRS as a 501(c)(3) public charity on February 6, 2012. Your tax-deductible donation to the Bogle Center is appreciated.
Nov 11 – Edward Yardeni, President and Chief Investment Strategist at Yardeni Research, joins FS Insider today for a wide-ranging interview on his latest book, In Praise of Profits, which is the 6 th... Subscribe to our premium weekday podcasts: https://www.financialsense.com/subscribe
Joshua Brown and Ben Carlson were joined on a special edition of Live From The Compound by Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research to talk about his new book In Praise of Profits!For more visit: YouTubeFor more disclosure information please visit: https://ritholtzwealth.com/blog-disclosures/ See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.
華爾街多頭分析師、Yardeni Research總裁兼首席投資策略師亞德尼（Ed Yardeni）週五（9月17日）告訴CNBC電視台，預計中共當局會干預恆大債務危機，但不會救管理層。 更多內容請見：https://www.epochtimes.com/b5/21/9/20/n13248382.htm 大纪元,大纪元新闻,大紀元,大紀元新聞,恆大危機, 恆大債務, 恆大管理層 Support this podcast
Our guest today is Dr. Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research. He is also the author of multiple books, including Fed Watching for Fun & Profit: A Primer for Investors. We discuss his recent book, which is about the history of the Fed through the end of 2019 and couldn't be more timely, and get his thoughts on the unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy in response to COVID. We also get his take on the buyback debate and why he believes the increase in the market has caused the increase in buybacks, contrary to popular opinion. Our local co-host today is Steve Curley, CIO of WaterOak Advisors and current President of the CFA Society of Orlando. Please enjoy the episode. Follow Dr. Yardeni's firm on Twiter at @yardeni and connect with him on Linkedin. Follow the CFA Society of Orlando on Twitter at @CFAOrlandoFL
Ed welcomes President and Chief Investment Strategist of Yardeni Research and author of the new book, Fed Watching for Fun & Profit, Dr. Ed Yardeni. They discuss the movement of the Fed from both a historical, and present day perspective.
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