Podcast appearances and mentions of Robert J Shiller

If you listened to our last couple of episodes, you'll have heard some pretty skeptical takes on AI. But if you look at the stock market right now, you won't see any trace of that skepticism. Since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, the chip company NVIDIA, whose chips are used in the majority of AI systems, has seen their stock shoot up by 700%. A month ago, that briefly made them the most valuable company in the world, with a market cap of more than $3.3 trillion.And it's not just chip companies. The S&P 500 (the index that tracks the 500 largest companies in the U.S.) is at an all-time high this year, in no small part because of the sheen of AI. And here in Canada, a new report from Microsoft claims that generative AI will add $187 billion to the domestic economy by 2030. As wild as these numbers are, they may just be the tip of the iceberg. Some researchers argue that AI will completely revolutionize our economy, leading to per capita growth rates of 30%. In case those numbers mean absolutely nothing to you, 25 years of 30% growth means we'd be a thousand times richer than we are now. It's hard to imagine what that world would like – or how the average person fits into it. Luckily, Rana Foroohar has given this some thought. Foroohar is a global business columnist and an associate editor at The Financial Times. I wanted to have her on the show to help me work through what these wild predictions really mean and, most importantly, whether or not she thinks they'll come to fruition.Mentioned:“Power and Progress: Our Thousand-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity” by Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson (2023)“Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises” by Charles P. Kindleberger (1978)“Irrational Exuberance” by Robert J. Shiller (2016)“Gen AI: Too much spend, too little benefit?” by Goldman Sachs Research (2024)“Workers could be the ones to regulate AI” by Rana Foroohar (Financial Times, 2023)“The Financial Times and OpenAI strike content licensing deal” (Financial Times, 2024)“Is AI about to kill what's left of journalism?” by Rana Foroohar (Financial Times, 2024)“Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism” by Anne Case and Angus Deaton (2020)“The China Shock: Learning from Labor Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade” by David H. Autor, David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson (2016)Further Reading:“Beware AI euphoria” by Rana Foroohar (Financial Times, 2024)“AlphaGo” by Google DeepMind (2020)

Chapter 1 Delve deeper into Irrational Exuberance literary work's messageIrrational Exuberance is a non-fiction book written by economist Robert J. Shiller. It was first published in 2000 and explores the psychology and economics of speculative bubbles and market volatility in relation to asset prices, particularly in the stock market and real estate. The book examines historical market data and provides analysis on how emotions and investor behavior can impact financial markets and lead to periods of irrational exuberance and subsequent market crashes. Shiller's work gained significant attention and acclaim, and he was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences in 2013 for his research on asset prices and market fluctuations.Chapter 2 Is Irrational Exuberance literary work Worth Reading?"Irrational Exuberance" by Robert J. Shiller is generally well-regarded within the field of economics and finance. The book examines the concept of speculative financial bubbles and provides insights into the causes and consequences of such phenomena. It has been praised for its thorough analysis backed by empirical evidence. However, whether it is considered a good book or not may vary depending on individual interests and perspectives. It is recommended to read reviews or sample the book before making a decision to see if it aligns with your specific interests or goals.Chapter 3 Brief Description of Irrational Exuberance literary work"Irrational Exuberance" is a book written by economist Robert J. Shiller. It was first published in 2000 and offers a comprehensive analysis of the dynamics of speculative bubbles in financial markets.Shiller's main argument in the book is that financial markets are prone to irrational exuberance, meaning periods of jubilant optimism that often lead to overvalued assets and speculative bubbles. He explains how psychological factors, such as herd behavior and feedback loops, can drive the market away from fundamental value and create situations of excessive risk-taking.The book explores several historical episodes of speculative bubbles, including the 1920s stock market boom and the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s. Shiller provides evidence-based analysis to demonstrate that such bubbles are not random events, but rather result from specific socio-economic conditions and behavioral patterns.Furthermore, Shiller emphasizes the importance of narratives and stories in shaping investor sentiment and market behavior. He argues that prevalent narratives, such as the idea of a "new era" or "permanent plateau" of high market returns, can generate irrational exuberance and contribute to the formation of bubbles.In addition to analyzing past bubbles, Shiller also offers insights on how to identify and mitigate future bubble risks. He proposes various policy measures, such as improving financial education, regulating speculative practices, and implementing countercyclical macroeconomic policies.Overall, "Irrational Exuberance" provides a critical examination of speculative bubbles and their underlying causes. It combines economic analysis with psychological insights, making it a valuable resource for investors, policymakers, and anyone interested in understanding the dynamics of financial markets.Chapter 4 About Irrational Exuberance literary work's Author The book Irrational Exuberance was written by Robert J. Shiller, an American economist and professor at Yale University. The first edition of Irrational Exuberance was released in March 2000. Shiller is renowned for his work in the field of behavioral...

Financial markets can be subject to a fair amount of groupthink. The herd effect. Mob mentality, even. There's actually some really interesting research into this: check out for example the paper, “Bubbles, Human Judgment, and Expert Opinion” by Robert J. Shiller.  Here's additional research into herd effect: Herding behaviour in digital currency markets: An integrated survey and empirical estimation.]Crypto investors are no exception: and their in-group behavior also features a lot of catchphrases. Like the famous “GM”, and the infamous "have fun staying poor." Or the tongue-in-check “Bitcoin will fix this”, where “this” is basically any social or economic issue you can imagine. In this episode Bloomberg senior markets editor Mike Regan and crypto blogger Emily Nicolle assess the mood among the crypto faithful - and explain why some of them are now evangelizing cold wallets. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Millions of American retirees and near retirees are particularly vulnerable as withdrawing funds from a shrinking nest egg during their early retirement years can threaten portfolio longevity. Annuities can deliver the stable income that retirees crave, but how exactly do they it? Laurence Black, founder of the Index Standard, helps us look under the hood of some of the latest annuity offering to explain how the strategic use of various financial indices can create reliable streams of retirement income.Please note: This content is intended for financial professionals.Guest Bio: Laurence Black is the founder of The Index Standard® and an index advisor to Robert J. Shiller, Sterling Professor of Economics at Yale University. Before founding The Index Standard®, Laurence was a Managing Director and Head of Quantitative Indices and Strategies at Barclays where he oversaw the development of the Barclays index family. In addition to designing some of the first smart beta/factor indices, Laurence spearheaded Barclays' index partnerships with Professors Robert Shiller and Nouriel Roubini, as well as Novus Partners.Before Barclays, Laurence was Head of Indices at ABN AMRO in London, where he successfully launched indices with well-known investors such as Jim Rogers and Joel Greenblatt. Before ABN AMRO, Laurence worked at Lehman Brothers, Deutsche Bank, and Credit Suisse.Laurence holds an MBA from the University of Warwick and a Bachelor's degree from the University of Cape Town. When not thinking about financial matters, he can mostly be found on a tennis court.

Comprar en Amazon: https://amzn.to/3QCwihT Javier Garabal es Consultor e Inversor en Innovación Digital y en esta entrevista, nos explica por qué tenemos leer este libro si queremos crecer. Biografía del autor Johan Norberg (Estocolmo, 1973) es escritor, conferenciante y autor de documentales. Es miembro del Cato Institute de Washington D. C. y del Centre for International Political Economy de Bruselas. Ha publicado más de veinte libros que se han traducido a veinticinco idiomas. Progreso (Deusto, 2017) fue un bestseller internacional que The Economist consideró libro del año. Además, se han publicado en español En defensa del capitalismo global (Unidad Editorial, 2005) y Fiasco Financiero: Cómo la obsesión de los americanos por la propiedad inmobiliaria y el dinero fácil causó la crisis económica (Unidad Editorial, 2015). Norberg escribe habitualmente para medios como The Wall Street Journal, Reason y HuffPost. Diego Sánchez de la Cruz es uno de los analistas económicos más influyentes de España. Dirige el think tank Foro Regulación Inteligente y es investigador asociado del Instituto de Estudios Económicos. Escribe a diario en Libre Mercado y colabora frecuentemente con diferentes medios de prensa, radio y televisión. Además, imparte docencia en varias universidades como la Universidad Camilo José Cela o la IE Business School. Es autor de Por qué soy liberal (Deusto, 2017) y ha traducido al español las obras de destacados autores internacionales tales como Johan Norberg, Alberto Alesina o Robert J. Shiller. Las malas noticias son omnipresentes en las televisiones, los periódicos y las conversaciones. Sea por razones económicas, políticas o debido a catástrofes naturales, parece que nuestro mundo va cada vez peor. Sin embargo, eso no es cierto. El progreso que la humanidad ha experimentado en las últimas décadas ha sido asombroso y no tiene precedentes. Y así lo demuestra el detallado examen que Johan Norberg hace en este libro de las cifras oficiales de organizaciones internacionales como Naciones Unidas, el Banco Mundial o la Organización Mundial de la Salud. Nuestra percepción puede decirnos que todo va mal, pero los datos indican que el mundo mejora y que lo hace, en muchas ocasiones, para aquellos que se encuentran en un peor punto de partida: en casi todos los rincones del mundo la gente vive más años, con mayor prosperidad, más seguridad y mejor salud. Por supuesto, ni todos los problemas han sido resueltos ni todas las partes del mundo pueden compartir este optimismo. Pero en la mayoría de los casos sabemos, al menos, qué herramientas pueden ayudarnos; muchas veces, una tecnología tan simple como la que permite el acceso al agua potable y sistemas de fontanería domésticos puede marcar una enorme diferencia. La educación y la nutrición son también claves y constituyen indicadores que mejoran. Nada debería hacernos pensar, en consecuencia, que el mundo del futuro va a ser peor que el actual. De hecho, y como nos recuerda Norberg en las páginas de este libro, vivimos en la mejor época de la humanidad.

Ist eine Aktie oder ein Markt attraktiv oder zu hoch bewertet? Mit dieser Frage schlagen sich nicht nur Anlegerinnen und Anleger täglich herum, sondern auch renommierte Wissenschaftler wie der Nobelpreisträger Robert J. Shiller. Um eine bessere Antwort zu liefern, betrachtet das nach ihm benannte Shiller-KGV unter anderem die letzten zehn Jahre. Welche Vorteile das hat und wo die Methode an ihre Grenzen stößt, beleuchten die AKTIONÄR-Redakteure Tim Temp und Benjamin Heimlich in Folge 43 des einfach börse-Podcasts. Hier findet Ihr das Buch „Narrative Wirtschaft“ von Robert J. Shiller: https://www.boersenmedien.de/produkt/narrative-wirtschaft-1741.html Hinweis: Die im Podcast besprochenen Aktien und Fonds stellen keine spezifischen Kauf- oder Anlageempfehlungen dar. Die Moderatoren oder der Verlag haften nicht für etwaige Verluste, die aufgrund der Umsetzung der Gedanken oder Ideen entstehen.

从2021年下半年到2022年上半年，二级市场在短短几个月内经历了巨幅波动，引发了人们对二级市场估值模型的反思。以B站、拼多多为代表的互联网新经济公司的股价在过去几年中如坐过山车。在过去相当长的时间里，互联网新秀们很多没有自由现金流或者盈利，却擅长通过讲故事来影响投资者的预期，「叙事」成为投资决策的驱动力。在基本面分析之外，我们该从哪些层面、用哪些指标去理解、衡量一个公司的真实价值？市场剧烈波动中，价值投资者们又该如何自处？本期节目我们邀请到中金公司互联网行业首席分析师白洋，从行业资深从业者的角度探讨股票投资的叙事和估值逻辑。 【特别提示：节目中提及的公司仅供探讨，不构成任何投资建议。】 特别鸣谢 本季节目由源自新西兰的多合一膳食营养补充剂品牌 Athletic Greens 赞助播出。微信搜索关注「AthleticGreens」公众号，发送暗号「疯投圈」获取节目专属优惠。 关注我们 微信搜索「疯投圈」公众号或扫描公众号二维码，您可以加入《疯投圈》会员群组，获得专属私密分享及线下活动通知；也可通过微信小程序直接收听节目、分享给微信好友。意见反馈和商务合作等请致信 hi@crazy.capital 相关链接 阿斯沃斯·达摩达兰：《故事与估值》 罗伯特·希勒（Robert J. Shiller）：《叙事经济学》 白洋「得到」课程《怎样快速搞懂一家公司》

Siamo in una fase di transizione ecologica e sostenibile anche per quanto riguarda gli investimenti finanziari, analizziamo le caratteristiche delle così dette obbligazioni ESG. “L'economia finanziaria comporta molti imbrogli, perché le persone dicono di poter battere il mercato quando in realtà non ne sono in grado.” Robert J. Shiller Sigla di Eric Buffat Per chi vuole acquistare il libro, il cui ricavato andrà totalmente a favore dell'associazione Dravet Italia: https://www.amazon.it/finanza-amichevole-Semplificare-concetto-renderlo/dp/B08DSSZHS9/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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หนังสือ Irrational Exuberance ของ Robert J. Shiller - ความสวยงามอย่างไร้เหตุผล เปรียบเสมือนความคิดที่ดีเกินกว่าที่มันควรจะเป็น เราควรรับมือกับความคิดนี้อย่างไร - เหตุผลกับอารมณ์เป็นของคู่กัน แต่เชื่อหรือไม่ว่า คนส่วนใหญ่ก็มักจะใช้อารมณ์ในการขับเคลื่อนตลาดไปอยู่ดี จึงเป็นคำตอบที่ชัดเจนว่าเหตุผลมักไม่ได้ถูกนำมาใช้ - วงจรย้อนกลับ ภาวะเศรษฐกิจฟองสบู่ หรือว่าความบ้าคลั่งของการไล่ซื้อ คือที่มาของคำว่าวิกฤตทั้งหมด แล้วนี่คือสัญญาณที่ชัดเจนว่าปัญหาเศรษฐกิจอาจจะเกิดจากอารมณ์ล้วน ๆ - สื่อที่กำลังบอกว่าเศรษฐกิจจะไปในทิศทางใดนั้น อาจจะเป็นตัวบ่งชี้ได้ในระดับหนึ่ง แต่ส่วนใหญ่แล้วไม่ได้มีส่วนต่อเศรษฐกิจที่แท้จริง การเสพสื่ออย่างมีวิจารณญาณจะช่วยให้ไม่เชื่อตาม ๆ กันไป - ความสามารถของผู้คนทั้งโลก อาจจะมีอำนาจเหนือปัจเจกชน อย่างไรก็ตามเราก็ควรที่จะเรียนรู้เรื่องของเหตุการณ์ในอดีตเอาไว้บ้าง ไม่เช่นนั้นเราก็จะไม่สามารถเกิดกระบวนการตระหนักรู้เชิงกว้างได้เลย

In the final episode of this mini-series, Pete and Steve discuss their final picks in their top 10 investment books of all time. Steve chooses: Buffettology: The Previously Unexplained Techniques That Have Made Warren Buffett the World's Most Famous Investor by Mary Buffett and David Clarke Pete chooses: The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book On Value Investing by Ben Graham (revised edition with foreword by Warren Buffett and commentary by Jason Zweig) All of the books in this mini-series have been: - Robert J. Shiller - Irrational Exuberance - Robert G.Hagstrom - The Warren Buffett Portfolio: mastering the power of the focus investing strategy - Maggie Mahar - Bull: a detailed exposition of the 1982-2003 bull market in the United States. - Morgan Housel - The Psychology of Money: a broad ranging set of short essays on many of the aspects of money and wealth. - Michael Mauboussin - The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing - Pete Wargent and Steve Moriarty - Low Rates High Returns: Timeless Investment Principles the Low Risk Way - William Poundstone - Fortune's Formula: The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street - Nassim Nicholas Taleb - Antifragile - Mary Buffett and David Clarke - Buffettology: The Previously Unexplained Techniques That Have Made Warren Buffett the World's Most Famous Investor - Ben Graham- The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book On Value Investing Thanks for listening! Download a free copy of our latest book, Total Money Management – How to escape the rat race and unlock your financial independence. www.gonextlevelwealth.com.au/podcast Pete Wargent www.petewargent.com/ www.linkedin.com/in/pete-wargent-37228322/ Stephen Moriarty twitter.com/SGM63

ในตอนนี้ เราจะเอาเรื่องราวของนักเศรษฐศาสตร์ที่ได้รับรางวัลโนเบล 2 คนมาวิเคราะห์กัน ที่มาของตอนนี้มาจากรายการ Planet Money ตอน What's a Bubble? ว่าด้วยเรื่องของการเปรียบเทียบความคิดเห็นของ Eugene Fama ศาสตราจารย์จาก University of Chicago ผู้ไม่เชื่อในเรื่องของการทำนายเหตุการณ์ฟองสบู่ทางเศรษฐกิจ และ Robert J. Shiller ศาสตราจารย์จากมหาวิทยาลัย Yale ผู้เชื่อว่าเราสามารถเห็นลักษณะร่วมของเหตุการณ์ฟองสบู่ (ใกล้) แตกได้ นอกจากนี้ เราจะควบรวมเรื่องราวที่ได้พูดคุยกับชาวไทยที่ทำงานใน World Bank ที่วิเคราะห์ถึงเศรษฐกิจไทยอย่างคร่าว ๆ ว่าตกลงตอนนี้ สภาวะทางเศรษฐกิจไทยที่เราเห็น จะเป็นเรื่องเดียวกันกับเศรษฐกิจสมัยยุคต้มยำกุ้งหรือไม่ สุดท้าย เราก็อยากให้ทุกท่าน ใช้ชีวิตอย่างปลอดภัยไว้ก่อน ในทางการเงิน ไม่ว่าเศรษฐกิจจะดีหรือจะแย่ เราจะต้องรอด!

ในตอนนี้ เราจะเอาเรื่องราวของนักเศรษฐศาสตร์ที่ได้รับรางวัลโนเบล 2 คนมาวิเคราะห์กัน ที่มาของตอนนี้มาจากรายการ Planet Money ตอน What's a Bubble? ว่าด้วยเรื่องของการเปรียบเทียบความคิดเห็นของ Eugene Fama ศาสตราจารย์จาก University of Chicago ผู้ไม่เชื่อในเรื่องของการทำนายเหตุการณ์ฟองสบู่ทางเศรษฐกิจ และ Robert J. Shiller ศาสตราจารย์จากมหาวิทยาลัย Yale ผู้เชื่อว่าเราสามารถเห็นลักษณะร่วมของเหตุการณ์ฟองสบู่ (ใกล้) แตกได้ นอกจากนี้ เราจะควบรวมเรื่องราวที่ได้พูดคุยกับชาวไทยที่ทำงานใน World Bank ที่วิเคราะห์ถึงเศรษฐกิจไทยอย่างคร่าว ๆ ว่าตกลงตอนนี้ สภาวะทางเศรษฐกิจไทยที่เราเห็น จะเป็นเรื่องเดียวกันกับเศรษฐกิจสมัยยุคต้มยำกุ้งหรือไม่ สุดท้าย เราก็อยากให้ทุกท่าน ใช้ชีวิตอย่างปลอดภัยไว้ก่อน ในทางการเงิน ไม่ว่าเศรษฐกิจจะดีหรือจะแย่ เราจะต้องรอด!

In this episode Pete and Steve nominate two of their favourite ever books on investing. Books referenced: - Robert J. Shiller - Irrational Exuberance - Robert G.Hagstrom - The Warren Buffett Portfolio: mastering the power of the focus investing strategy - Stephen Jay Gould: Full House: The Spread of Excellence from Plato to Darwin Thanks for listening! Download a free copy of our latest book, Total Money Management – How to escape the rat race and unlock your financial independence. www.gonextlevelwealth.com.au/podcast Pete Wargent www.petewargent.com/ www.linkedin.com/in/pete-wargent-37228322/ Stephen Moriarty twitter.com/SGM63

Las fuerzas gravitatorias que dominan los mercados a veces sólo requieren de un breve dibujo en una servilleta de tela para ser doblegadas. El Premio Nobel de Economía Robert J. Shiller sitúa al gran público y los economistas frente al espejo de la injustamente olvidada narrativa económica. Nos referimos a aquella historia que, aún en tiempos lejanos a las redes sociales, logra viralizarse y cambiar el destino social y político de una época. Que ésta sea falsa o verdadera resulta irrelevante.El poder de las historias suele ser un factor infravalorado en la sociedad contemporánea de los números absolutos. Quizá por sus leyes impredecibles, imposibles de determinar ni por los productores con mejor olfato de Hollywood. Sin embargo, supone un error obviarlo, y más cuando puede afectar a la economía de un país o del mundo entero. Esta es la tesis fundamental que presenta el economista Robert J. Shiller en su último libro,  Narrativas económicas  (Deusto).En 1974, el economista Arthur Laffer dibujaba en una servilleta del restaurante Two Continents de Washington su famosa curva impositiva. En ese momento, no podía imaginar que aquel trozo de tela acabaría decidiendo el destino de Ronald Reagan y Margaret Thatcher. Y hasta teniendo su propia vitrina en el Museo de Historia Americana.  Laffer trataba de justificar con un sencillo diagrama cómo una bajada de impuestos podía seguir generando un aumento en la recaudación por su capacidad revulsiva sobre la actividad económica. Dick Cheney y Donald Rumsfeld, seguían con atención las líneas de Laffer entre bocado y bocado de chuletón. También el analista de  The Wall Street Journal  Jude Wanniski, que, cuatro años más tarde, contó la anécdota en un libro no publicado en español The Way the World Works, disparando la popularidad de  la curva de Laffer. La doctrina de la servilleta triunfó en los medios de comunicación en la década de los 80, y su popularidad parece estar detrás de la llegada al poder americano y británico, respectivamente, de Ronald Reagan (en 1980) y Margaret Thatcher (en 1979). Ambos dirigentes lograron imponerse a sus adversarios con una política favorable a la bajada de impuestos.  La anécdota de la servilleta es recordada por Shiller como muestra del poder de una narrativa económica, una historia suficientemente brillante que contenía un ingrediente básico para mantenerse en el recuerdo: una potente imagen visual. Exacto, la servilleta. Que su teoría fuese correcta o no pasaba a un segundo plano. Era demasiado buena para quedar arruinada por los detalles.  El ganador del Premio Nobel en 2013 explica cómo esta historia desencadenó "un movimiento más serio de cambio político orientado a bajar impuestos y liberalizar la economía", y argumenta que también pudo explicar una tendencia social de la época a favor del emprendimiento.  La servilleta de Laffer consiguió una vitrina propia en el Museo de Historia Americana.  El responsable de mancharla de tinta, Arthur Laffer, acabó renegando del mito y reconociendo los enormes agujeros de su doctrina. La historia económica, sin embargo, ya había sido modificada.

En el espacio ‘Todo es lenguaje’ de Estrella Montolío, desmenuzamos las conclusiones del libro Narrativas económicas. Cómo las fake news y las historias virales afectan la marcha de la economía (Ed. Deusto), escrito por Robert J. Shiller, Premio Nobel de Economía en 2013. Escuchar audio

Nos tomamos el ‘Café de las 9’ hablando sobre ciberataques. Nos acompaña Miguel López, director general de Barracuda Networks Iberia, empresa especializada en ciberseguridad. En ‘Regreso al presente’ de David Zurdo, abordamos la creación de una Agencia Espacial Española. Y en el espacio ‘Todo es lenguaje’ de Estrella Montolío, desmenuzamos las conclusiones del libro Narrativas económicas. Cómo las fake news y las historias virales afectan la marcha de la economía (Ed. Deusto), escrito por Robert J. Shiller, Premio Nobel de Economía en 2013. Escuchar audio

In "Narrative Wirtschaft" stellt Robert J. Shiller die These auf, dass gesellschaftliche Narrative einen großen Einfluss auf ökonomische Ereignisse haben. Er rekonstruiert anschließend die Wirtschaftsgeschichte aus der Perspektive der Narrative und zeigt dabei auf, welches Potenzial in dem Ansatz steckt, aber auch, wie unzureichend das ökonomische Handwerkszeug in diesem Kontext ist.

Merriam-Webster's Word of the Day for January 31, 2021 is: nostrum • NAHSS-trum • noun : a usually questionable remedy or scheme : panacea Examples: Critics argue that the mayor's plan to revitalize the downtown area by offering tax breaks to businesses is a costly and ineffective nostrum. "People are seeking reassurance from homespun investment advice, like the old nostrum that the percentage of stocks in your portfolio should be equal to 100 minus your age, come what may." — Robert J. Shiller, The New York Times, 2 Apr. 2020 Did you know? "Whether there was real efficacy in these nostrums, and whether their author himself had faith in them, is more than can safely be said," wrote 19th-century American writer Nathaniel Hawthorne, "but, at all events, the public believed in them." The word nostrum has often been linked to quack medicine and false hopes for miracle cures, but there's nothing deceitful about its etymology. It has been a part of English since at least the early 17th century, and it comes from the Latin noster, meaning "our" or "ours." Some think that specially prepared medicinal concoctions came to be called nostrums because their purveyors marketed them as "our own" remedy. In other words, the use of nostrum emphasized that such a potion was unique or exclusive to the pitchman peddling it.

Merriam-Webster's Word of the Day for January 31, 2021 is: nostrum • NAHSS-trum • noun : a usually questionable remedy or scheme : panacea Examples: Critics argue that the mayor's plan to revitalize the downtown area by offering tax breaks to businesses is a costly and ineffective nostrum. "People are seeking reassurance from homespun investment advice, like the old nostrum that the percentage of stocks in your portfolio should be equal to 100 minus your age, come what may." — Robert J. Shiller, The New York Times, 2 Apr. 2020 Did you know? "Whether there was real efficacy in these nostrums, and whether their author himself had faith in them, is more than can safely be said," wrote 19th-century American writer Nathaniel Hawthorne, "but, at all events, the public believed in them." The word nostrum has often been linked to quack medicine and false hopes for miracle cures, but there's nothing deceitful about its etymology. It has been a part of English since at least the early 17th century, and it comes from the Latin noster, meaning "our" or "ours." Some think that specially prepared medicinal concoctions came to be called nostrums because their purveyors marketed them as "our own" remedy. In other words, the use of nostrum emphasized that such a potion was unique or exclusive to the pitchman peddling it.

There's power in simple stories. Something as inconspicuous as a coffeeshop creating a “third space between work and home” can lead to a hundred billion dollar enterprise. That's a market cap of one with eleven zeros. So yeah brand narratives and the way companies tell their stories is important. Narratives are so powerful in fact that nobel prize winning economist Robert J. Shiller made a case that they influence entire markets in his book Narrative Economics. But how do brands come up with these stories and how can founders and startups tell their own story. It starts with the why. Most companies know what they do. Good companies know how they will do it and what their competitive advantage is. The best companies have a good reason as to why they do it. Elon Musk's SpaceX is a great example of this. He is able to hire and motivate the most talented individuals because of the greater cause. The narrative of getting to Mars and making the human race an interplanetary species. But maybe a Mars mission is a bit too ambitious for most founders. Great narratives for business can include a reason to be, a founders story or a hero's journey through conflict to success. Authenticity is key to a story gaining traction and spreading via 3rd parties. That doesn't mean to say that companies can't seed their own stories through content marketing and social media. Brand storytelling builds a brand image inline with the founders vision. Starbucks makes coffee. They add value by creating a relaxing environment. They do this to give millions of people the option of a 3rd space between the office and home. Cheers.

What is an economic bubble? It means that a certain kind of financial asset, for example, stock or real estate, which attracts many investors and drastically increases in price for a short time. The sharp rise in the prices of financial assets causes a lot of money to flow into a particular industry, leading to this industry’s prosperity. This kind of prosperity is like a bubble in a bath. It seems that the market is prosperous, but actually, it is an illusion. When the market cools down and people withdraw their investments, the asset prices will collapse. The financial sector calls this false prosperity an economic bubble. The author of this book, Robert J. Shiller, believes that the main reason for economic bubble formation is the collective irrationality of human beings, so he calls the economic bubble "irrational exuberance."   Professor Shiller categorized the precipitating factors of "irrational exuberance" into structural factors, cultural factors, and psychological factors. Firstly, "irrational exuberance" is influenced by structural factors such as political policies, industry development, population size, investor psychology, the growth of mutual funds, the expansion of the volume of trade and so on. It is also fueled by the "amplification effect" of the market. Secondly, from a cultural point of view, the news media and the zeitgeist play a significant role. Finally, from a psychological point of view, these various factors can not affect the market unless human "psychological factors" are also involved. 

Vincent is joined by James Morrissey, author of 'Hot Whiskey: The Story of Ireland's Biggest Ever Takeover Bid' to discuss the story of the ownership battle for 'Irish Distillers' in the late 1980's in what was then the country's largest takeover bid. Nobel Prize winning economist Dr Robert J. Shiller and author of 'Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events' joins Vincent to discuss how ideas - spread through the public in the form of popular stories - can go viral and move markets and has the potential to vastly improve our ability to predict, prepare for, and lessen the damage of financial crises, recessions, depressions, and other major economic events. Taking Stock is brought to you in association with PwC Ireland.

In a world in which internet troll farms attempt to influence foreign elections, can we afford to ignore the power of viral stories to affect economies? Whether it’s the belief that tech stocks can only go up, that housing prices never fall, or that some firms are too big to fail, economist Robert Shiller asserted that the stories we tell can have a powerful effect on our economic behavior. Shiller brought us lessons from his new book Narrative Economics, cautioning us that narratives like these, whether true or false, have the power to drive the economy by impacting our decisions on how to invest, spend, and save. He invited us to learn new strategies for monitoring these narratives—strategies that could vastly improve our ability to predict and react to financial crises. Take a look at the foundations of our economy and the ways it can be impacted by the stories we tell. Robert J. Shiller is a Nobel Prize–winning economist, the author of the New York Times bestseller Irrational Exuberance, and the coauthor, with George A. Akerlof, of Phishing for Phools and Animal Spirits, among other books. He is Sterling Professor of Economics at Yale University and a regular contributor to the New York Times. Presented by Town Hall Seattle. Recorded live in The Great Hall on October 24, 2019.

Bloomberg Opinion columnist Barry Ritholtz interviews the Nobel-winning economist Robert J. Shiller, whose latest book, "Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events," came out Oct. 1. Shiller, a professor at Yale University, has written about financial markets, innovation, behavioral economics, macroeconomics and real estate, among other topics. He was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences jointly with Eugene Fama and Lars Peter Hansen in 2013. 

Robert J. Shiller is Sterling Professor of Economics at Yale University and one of the 2013 recipients of...

¿Estamos frente a una burbuja económica?, ¿pueden desplomarse los precios de las acciones en cualquier momento?, ¿puede mi hogar perder todo su valor de un momento a otro? El estudio de los booms y burbujas económicas que hace el ganador del premio Nobel de economía Robert Shiller es el episodio del día de hoy. Resumen del Libro: Robert Shiller es un premio nobel que escribió un fascinante libro relacionado con las burbujas económicas y las fuerzas que hay detrás de ellas. Desde los factores culturales y comerciales hasta los psicológicos y estructurales que explican estos fenómenos son revisados en el capítulo de hoy.     ¡Conviértete en patrocinador de nuestro podcast ayudándonos mes a mes! Ingresa a https://www.patreon.com/elementalpodcast   |Nuestra página|:http://www.elementalpodcast.cl/ |Twitter|: https://twitter.com/elementalpodcas (@elementalpodcas) |Facebook|: https://www.facebook.com/ElementalPodcast/ |Instagram|: https://www.instagram.com/elementalpodcast/ |Youtube|: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCzbMsT2QA6TTaYrzLr6t1AQ   |Subscríbete en iTunes|: https://goo.gl/exXvXV |Subscríbete en Stitcher|: https://goo.gl/ZzStCQ |Subscríbete en Podbean|: https://goo.gl/JV8VUZ |Subscríbete en Spotify|: https://goo.gl/jJdL5n   |Amazon|: http://a.co/d/dQNd6Bn |Autor|: Robert J. Shiller   Links y notas del Show:   00:00 |Elemental episodio 55||Mr. Market|: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mr._Market06:56 |Acciones, bonos e inmuebles|20:07 |Factores precipitantes|39:06 |Mecanismos de amplificación|43:07 |Factores culturales||Principios de Ray Dalio|: http://elementalpodcast.cl/2018/07/08/052-principios-de-ray-dalio/50:11 |Anclas psicológicas para el mercado|52:53 |Epidemias y comportamientos como rebaño||Algunos casos de histeria colectiva|: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_hysteria|The Corrupted Blood Incident|: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20ntIVwJejk58:51 |Los mercados eficientes y las burbujas||England: South Sea Bubble I: The Sharp Mind of John Blunt - Extra History|: https://youtu.be/k1kndKWJKB8|Life Finds A Way|:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dMjQ3hA9mEA1:04:19 |Cierre y conclusiones|   Pedro García-Huidobro (@pedroghg) y Santiago Allamand (@stgoallamand) discuten sobre distintos libros todas las semanas.   Agradecimientos especiales a: |Música Intro|: Osvaldo Guzmán |Sonidos Adicionales|: Osvaldo Guzmán |Diseñadora|: María de los Ángeles Manriquez |Musica Cierre|: ”Rollin at 5" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 3.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

How are Behavioural Sciences applied in our economy and society currently? What opportunities will they open up in the next 10-15 years? Which sectors can profit most? What are the risks with these tools being used for the wrong reasons? In this week's episode of “A Glimpse into the Future”, we talk to Iris Bohnet and Robert J. Shiller from the World Economic Forum's Council on the Future of Behavioural Sciences. Dr Bohnet is the director of the Women and Public Policy program at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government. Professor Shiller is a Nobel Laureate and a Sterling Professor of Economics at Yale University.

How are Behavioural Sciences applied in our economy and society currently? What opportunities will they open up in the next 10-15 years? Which sectors can profit most? What are the risks with these tools being used for the wrong reasons? In this week’s episode of “A Glimpse into the Future”, we talk to Iris Bohnet and Robert J. Shiller from the World Economic Forum’s Council on the Future of Behavioural Sciences. Dr Bohnet is the director of the Women and Public Policy program at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government. Professor Shiller is a Nobel Laureate and a Sterling Professor of Economics at Yale University.

Nov. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg View columnist Barry Ritholtz interviews Robert J. Shiller, Sterling Professor of Economics, Yale University, and Professor of Finance and Fellow at the International Center for Finance, Yale School of Management. He was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences in 2013. They discuss Real Estate investments. This commentary aired on Bloomberg Radio.u0010u0010(Barry Ritholtz is a Bloomberg View columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)

Agrees With Wizard Academy Headlines often tell the truth more powerfully than is completely accurate, a disturbing trend in this day of sound-bite news. The mental image conjured in the mind by the headline, “Nobel Prize-Winning Economist Agrees With Wizard Academy,” is one in which the Nobel Laureate (1.) is aware of Wizard Academy and (2.) makes a statement of affirmation regarding it. Neither of these things has happened. So how could the writer of that headline say such a thing? The Monday Morning Memo you received on July 29 was titled, http://mondaymemo.wpengine.com/newsletters/fortune-500-or-americas-591-million (Fortune's 500 or America's 5.91 Million?) Perhaps you remember reading it. In that memo I stated, The Fortune 500 are the newsmakers but they are not the backbone of the American economy. According to the U.S. Census, America is home to nearly 17 million sole proprietorships, plus an additional 5.91 million businesses with fewer than 100 employees. These 5.91 million are the backbone of the economy since they create more new jobs than all the other companies combined. The press will cheer for the giant with a spear but I sing for the boy with a sling. If the Fortune 500 suddenly vanished from the earth, a new group of giants would arise. But if America's 5.91 million businesses with fewer than 100 employees suddenly vanished from the earth, the fabric of our society would be shredded and democracy would be gone. Free enterprise doesn't depend on democracy. Democracy depends on free enterprise. On August 17, 2013, more than 2 weeks after that MondayMorningMemo appeared, Jeffrey Eisenberg sent a story from the August 17th New York Times in which the Sterling Professor of Economics at Yale, Robert J. Shiller, contemplated the newly-published worries of Edmund Phelps, the 2006 recipient of the Nobel Prize in the Economic Sciences. According to Shiller, “Professor Phelps discerns a troubling trend… He is worried about corporatism, a political philosophy in which economic activity is controlled by large interest groups or the government. Once corporatism takes hold in a society, he says, people don't adequately appreciate the contributions and the travails of individuals who create and innovate. An economy with a corporatist culture can copy and even outgrow others for a while, he says, but, in the end, it will always be left behind. Only an entrepreneurial culture can lead.” I'm not suggesting that Phelps or Shiller was influenced by what I wrote. In fact, I'm reasonably certain they've never heard of me. But I do feel I'm well within the mark to say both men agree with me. Phelps is worried about corporatism. Me? I'm worried about a disturbing trend toward overstated sound bites. I gave today's memo a reckless headline to underscore my point, but better examples are all around us. A recent story boasted the headline, “Right Brain, Left Brain? Scientists Debunk Popular Theory.” Google it and you'll find dozens of variations of that story reposted by online parrots who never pause to contemplate what they hear before squawking it to all the world. Invest 3 minutes to actually read that story and you'll find the headline to be false and misleading to the point of absurdity. The discovery for which Dr. Roger Sperry won the 1981 Nobel Prize in Physiology stands as tall and proud as ever. Here's a direct quote from the story that supposedly ‘debunks' Dr. Sperry's findings: “‘It's absolutely true that some brain functions occur in one or the other side of the brain,' explained Jeff Anderson, M.D., Ph.D., lead author of the study. ‘Language tends to be on the left, attention more on the right. But people don't tend to have a stronger left- or right-sided brain network. It seems to be determined more connection by connection.'” Dig into that study by Dr. Anderson and you'll find he merely summarizes what we've always...

Economists have in the past often treated human beings as ideally rational. But they aren't. In this episode of the Social Science Bitespodcast Robert J. Shiller discusses how behavioural economics, drawing on psychology and even neuroscience, is transforming the nature of the subject and giving a better picture of markets and how they operate. Social Science Bites is made in association with SAGE.