Podcasts about Shiller

Don and Tom dive into the human obsession with prediction—especially in finance—and why models fail us more than they help. They dissect the CAPE ratio, Fama vs. Shiller, and why “knowing” the market is a fool's errand. Listeners also get lessons on ETF pricing myths, market cap misunderstandings, SEP Roth IRAs (spoiler: they're basically unicorns), and whether dad deserves a gift or just more responsibilities. 0:04 We crave certainty—even though our money brains are terrible at prediction. 1:01 Wall Street's models exist to soothe our fear of the unknown. 1:34 “All models are wrong, but some are useful” — CAPE ratio vs. the real world. 2:39 Shiller vs. Fama: You can't time the market, even with a Nobel. 4:51 Why diversification, risk-based equity premiums, and low fees beat predictions. 5:24 Models work… until they don't (hello, Phillips Curve). 7:02 Why the inflation-unemployment link broke after 2000: China changed the game. 8:26 Let's admit it: You cannot accurately and consistently predict the future. 9:14 Call from Catherine: Why Schwab ETF prices are “low” (spoiler: stock splits). 11:31 Price per share means nothing. Market cap is what matters. 13:04 Berkshire never split its stock—why it's $731K a share. 14:24 Apple vs. Berkshire vs. Microsoft: Market cap is the real metric. 16:32 Why the Dow is dumb (and would be even dumber with Berkshire in it). 17:49 Listener Q: Where to park $450K before a home purchase? (Hint: not bonds.) 18:29 High-yield savings accounts are still the best move. 19:53 Father's Day preview: Don rants about dumb gifts and ungrateful kids. 21:19 Kiplinger's list: 5 ways dads can teach money lessons (cue sarcasm). 24:06 Allowances, budgeting, and tax talks with kids—realistic or fantasy? 25:28 Roth IRAs and investing lessons for teens: what actually works. 27:45 Why teaching kids to pick stocks is a dangerous myth. 29:38 “Graduation fund” idea: simple global ETFs like AVGE or DFAW. 30:43 Yes, your kids might move back in. Yes, it's happening again. 32:13 Listener Q: Can you open a Roth SEP IRA? (Short answer: not really yet.) 33:54 One firm offers it… but it'll cost you $500/year and it's shady. 35:20 Final caller: Are there any annuities we do like? (Answer: the shortest show ever.) 36:34 Program note: Tom gone for 2 weeks, Don wants your calls (or sympathy). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Or on the types of prioritization, their strengths, pitfalls, and how EA should balance them The cause prioritization landscape in EA is changing. Prominent groups have shut down, others have been founded, and everyone is trying to figure out how to prepare for AI. This is the first in a series of posts examining the state of cause prioritization and proposing strategies for moving forward. Executive Summary Performing prioritization work has been one of the main tasks, and arguably achievements, of EA. We highlight three types of prioritization: Cause Prioritization, Within-Cause (Intervention) Prioritization, and Cross-Cause (Intervention) Prioritization. We ask how much of EA prioritization work falls in each of these categories: Our estimates suggest that, for the organizations we investigated, the current split is 89% within-cause work, 2% cross-cause, and 9% cause prioritization. We then explore strengths and potential pitfalls of each level: Cause [...] ---Outline:(00:37) Executive Summary(03:09) Introduction: Why prioritize? Have we got it right?(05:18) The types of prioritization(06:54) A snapshot of EA(16:45) The Types of Prioritization Evaluated(16:57) Cause Prioritization(20:56) Within-Cause Prioritization(25:12) Cross-Cause Prioritization(30:07) Summary Table(30:53) What factors should push us towards one or another?(37:27) Possible Next Steps(39:44) Conclusion(40:58) Acknowledgements(41:01) en-US-AvaMultilingualNeural__ Modern geometric logo design with text RETHINK PRIORITIES(41:55) Appendix: Strengths and Pitfalls of Each Type(42:07) Within-Cause Prioritization Strengths(42:12) Decision-Making Support(42:37) Comparability of Outputs(44:18) Disciplinarity Advantages(45:45) Responsiveness to Evidence(46:48) Movement Building(48:06) Within-Cause Prioritization Weaknesses and Potential Pitfalls(48:12) Responsiveness to Evidence(50:54) Decision-Making Support(52:45) Cross-Cause Prioritization Strengths:(53:06) Decision-Making Support(54:49) Responsiveness to Evidence(56:08) Movement Building(56:22) Comparability of Outputs(56:45) Decision-Making Support(57:14) Cross-Cause Prioritization Weaknesses and Potential Pitfalls(57:20) Comparability of Outputs(58:01) Disciplinarity Advantages(58:41) Movement Building(59:09) Decision-Making Support(01:00:27) Cause Prioritization Strengths(01:00:32) Decision-Making Support(01:02:01) Responsiveness to Evidence(01:02:52) Movement Building(01:03:28) Cause Prioritization Weaknesses and Potential Pitfalls(01:04:28) Decision-Making Support(01:06:08) Responsiveness to EvidenceThe original text contained 23 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: April 16th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZPdZv8sHuYndD8xhJ/doing-prioritization-better-2 --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:

【節目】最近很紅的名詞均值回歸，就好像看準均值會回歸，好像可以預測未來走勢一定會怎麼變化?也出現了保證OOO某某標的比XXX贏的說法。但到底均值回歸這個看法，有沒有什麼學理上的反面研究?這次來討論看看。那該不該用 CAPE 或均值回歸做決策?這次也來研究看看。 《苦盡柑來遇見你》最近很紅的韓劇，英文劇名：「When Life Gives You Tangerines」改編自諺語：「When life gives you lemons, make lemonade」。將“lemons”換成濟州特產“tangerines（橘子）”，象徵轉化困境、正向面對人生。如果你相信均值回歸，那在低於均值的情況下，建倉位，是不是就會等到有一天，苦盡柑來遇見你?回歸到趨勢線之上? 大綱 1.均值回歸的基本概念與迷思 2.光學幻覺：學術對均值回歸的質疑 3.市場平均值會變動的原因 4.CAPE指標的定義與用途 5.CAPE與傳統本益比的差異 6.CAPE歷史高點與市場崩盤的對照 7.使用CAPE的限制與批評聲音 8.CAPE與均值回歸的實務應用建議 9.估值指標的正確使用心法 10.建立穩健投資系統的關鍵思維 關鍵字 #均值回歸 #CAPE #估值指標 #光學幻覺 #資產配置 #風險雷達 #本益比 #Shiller #市場均值 #投資紀律 第541集，2025/05/01錄製 #AwesomeMoney #威利研究室 用研究改變你的財商視野 節目連結： YouTube 搜尋: 威利財經角 Podcast 搜尋: Awesome_Money 收看頻道會員節目: https://cutt.ly/HeRTJFB2 加入頻道會員: https://cutt.ly/zwTJf5e0 訂閱方格子 (文稿、程式範例): https://vocus.cc/willy03/home 威利投資生活事 Line 社群: https://forms.gle/CabjyDhux35utmyU9 免費電子報訂閱: https://cutt.ly/lwOV4s2Q 使用電子報原因: https://cutt.ly/kwOV4U8H 收聽|看文章|互動社群|目錄: https://cutt.ly/AwesomeMoney －－－－以下訊息由 SoundOn 動態廣告贊助商提供－－－－ 高雄美術特區3-4房全新落成，《惟美術》輕軌C22站散步即到家，近鄰青海商圈，卡位明星學區，徜徉萬坪綠海。 住近美術館，擁抱優雅日常，盡現驕傲風範！美術東四路29號 07-553-3838 https://sofm.pse.is/7krcxg -- 宏國德霖科技大學，有豐富獎學金就學補助、多元實習機會，讓你畢業即就業，實踐創業夢想人生！ 三大學院：餐旅學院、不動產學院及工程學院，緊密合作旗下凱撒飯店連鎖及宏國建設集團，宏國德霖科技大學是你最佳選擇！ https://sofm.pse.is/7kq64u -- Hosting provided by SoundOn

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comI don't normally put out market commentary on a Sunday, especially on a Sunday evening, but the events of last week were so extraordinary I feel I have to.We are in full-on crash mode, it seems. The price action reminds me of the Covid panic or even 2008. It almost doesn't matter what you own. Portfolios around the world have been battered.The declines in the final two days of last week, since so-called “Liberation Day”, when President Trump announced his tariffs, are roughly as follows:* Bitcoin: -1%* Gold: -3%* S&P 500: -9%* Nasdaq: -10%* Brent Crude: -12.5%* Copper: -13% (phew!)Magnificent Seven:* MSFT: -6%* GOOGL: -7%* AMZN: -13%* META: -14%* NVDA: -15%* TSLA: -15%* AAPL: -17%We are, of course, very long gold and bitcoin here at The Flying Frisby, so I guess we've come out of this comparatively unscathed. What's more, we have a good allocation to wealth preservation in the Dolce Far Niente portfolio. But our speculative positions, like everyone's, have been hit, and I'm angry with myself for not getting more defensive sooner. I've been saying for some time I don't like the price action one bit- eg here and here - and the words of that freaky preacher keep ringing in my ears.In any case, there's no point beating myself up. Life is easy in hindsight. Investing is even easier.I spent considerable time on Friday and Saturday reading and watching interviews, trying to understand exactly what these tariffs are about and what the implications are, and I think I have come up with something of a roadmap.We'll start by explaining the plan. Then we'll look at what comes next. And, finally, we'll look at what to do with some of our recent speculations.Why our opinion is irrelevantI'm a free-trade guy, or at least I was. I'm not quite sure what I am any more. But I'm not going to waste my time - or yours - here with arguments about whether tariffs are a good thing or not. There's no point. My time - and yours - would be as well spent howling at the moon. As far as I know, Donald Trump isn't a reader of The Flying Frisby. He knows his own mind and he's not going to turn to this Substack, or any of our social media feeds, for policy advice.Don't be like DT. Subscribe to the Flying Frisby.Tariffs are here, and they're here to stay. Trump is attempting a major economic redesign - the kind of reset that those who rail against economic injustice have been calling for for years. Now it's here, and as we look at our portfolios, many of us aren't so sure we want it.What I want to understand, first, is the logic behind the tariffs, then their implications, so we can best navigate them.The first thing to note I've already said: Trump isn't going to backtrack. As I watched tumbling share prices on Friday, I thought to myself—he's going to backtrack. He has to. But Trump isn't the Conservative Party, or indeed the Labour Party, changing tack at the slightest sign of discontent. Critics say he'll cave if stocks keep tanking, I'm not so sure. His track record suggests otherwise, and he's put a loyal and strong team together to back him up and implement his plan.He's going to give his tariffs longer than a couple of days to have an impact.Many say Trump hasn't properly thought this through. Of course, he has. He's been thinking about it night and day for years. He'll have been thinking about little else as he wrestles with the problem of how to reinvigorate industrial America. That doesn't mean his plan will work, but the idea he hasn't thought about it is just a facile invention of Trump perma-critics to use against him.Trump may be a bit of a clown - he has a comedic instinct and can't resist a gag - but he's not stupid. Clowns rarely are.Why Trump's doing what he's doingTrump intensely dislikes the decimation of industrial America, which began in the 1980s and still continues, with the outsourcing of manufacturing to Asia and elsewhere. Even 40 years ago , he was giving interviews about this (hence why I say he has thought it through) and he wants to restore it. That's part of what he means when he says, “Make America great again.”He can see that while the American coasts may have thrived, thanks largely to finance and tech, much of what is in between has not. This is the America he wants to make great again.There are two reasons he wants to revive American industry. First, is that he believes the model by which America takes on debt to buy cheap stuff from China is unsustainable and has to stop - and the sooner the better. So it's for the good of the American economy. Second, is for reasons of security. While China and the US may be trading partners now, they are also rivals, and if your rival is making your essential military and strategic equipment and components, whether it's semi-conductors, industrial and consumer electronics, pharmaceuticals or battery and energy storage systems, you have a big problem on your hands. Covid exposed just how fragile supply chains are, and Trump has taken it as an early warning sign.Something very similar, as readers of Daylight Robbery will know, happened in the US after its War of 1812 with the British, a war that lasted three years. The war badly exposed US over-reliance on British industrial goods, so the US introduced tariffs in 1816 to try and nurture and grow its own industry. Those tariffs ended up having grave long-term consequences (they were a major factor in the lead up to the civil war - but that was 45 years later). In the short term, they worked. (More on this here).Coming to America“Come and build your factories in the US,” Trump is saying. “Then you won't pay tariffs. Relocate from China, Mexico, Vietnam.”Here's a case in point. Jaguar Land Rover has already announced it's halting shipments to the US for one month. Now, this company's management - remember its recent rebrand? (see below) - is on the opposing side of the culture war to Donald Trump and MAGA, so that is one factor at play. But when I wrote my piece about how good self-driving Teslas are, a lot of people commented that the Jags are better. I don't know—I haven't been in one. But for sure, Jaguar Land Rover won't want to lose momentum or network effect in this all important arms race, particularly while Tesla is struggling: 45% off its recent highs, victim to nationwide vandalism and Elon Musk no longer the darling but the villain of the eco-warrior left. So what does Jaguar do now? Not sell into the all-important US markets? Pay 25% tariffs? Or build a factory stateside? I think the answer is fairly obvious.Whatever it chooses to do, it's going to take longer than a couple of days.With DOGE and the shrinking of the US state, meanwhile, there'll be plenty of workers to fill those new positions. As the US state shrinks, its private sector grows. That's the idea, anyway.His tariffs may lead to higher prices for American consumers, as many have pointed out, but not as high as widely thought, argues Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in this recent interview with Tucker Carlson (a recommended watch, by the way). Bessent's calculations are that tariffs won't gouge consumers as much as feared. What's more, the revenue from tariffs could eventually enable lower levels of taxation back home, which will further ease pressure on US citizens, those who work at least.What about the upheaval Trump tariffs cause to the rest of the world? Not his problem. America first.Yet he's creating enormous uncertainty, and markets are tanking. On Friday, markets were in full panic mode, and the baby was being thrown out with the bathwater. What about that?The amazing stat which shows why Trump won't give two hoots about the stock market - for nowAt this point, I want to press upon you one of the most telling statistics I've seen for some time:* The richest 1% of Americans own 50% of US stocks, worth $23 trillion.* The bottom 50% of U.S. adults hold only 1% of stocks, worth $480 billion.If you expand to the top 10%, that group holds 87% of stocks, valued at $36 trillion. If I'm correctly inferring Bessent's comments, at this current point, Trump doesn't care about Wall Street, or Silicon Valley, or the parts of the US economy that have become so rich over the past 40 years. It's the bottom 50 - or even 80% - that Trump is concerned with. They hardly own any stocks, so the market mayhem won't matter so much to them. Wall Street has made good for decades. It can suffer a bit of pain while Main Street gets rebuilt.It's worth noting, by the way, that US equities were enormously overvalued when Trump took office, so some kind of correction had to happen anyway. The Shiller price-to-earnings ratio was at its third highest level in history (the only times it was higher was 2000 and 2007, and we all know what happened next). That's why Warren Buffett built up his enormous cash position two months ago ($330 billion). Buffett, by the way, really is a genius.Best to get the inevitable correction out of the way early in the Presidency. What's more, as Bessent points out, these market declines began several weeks ago with China's AI announcement of DeepSeek, the app that can do everything ChatGPT and Grok can do with much lower power use. Prior to that, the Magnificent Seven had driven the extraordinary gains seen in the S&P 500 over the previous 18 months. Strip them out, and the picture was much less rosy. (Now the Mag7're down 30-45%).Trump's announcement may have pricked the bubble, but a bubble is still a bubble and if one thing doesn't burst it, something else will.Trump's plan, meanwhile, (and I'm not saying it'll work, everyone will have their opinion) is not to boost the stock market. It is to reset the economy. The economy and the stock market are not the same thing.Some numbersThe US is trapped in a vicious debt spiral.$36 trillion is the current US National Debt. The US will spend $6 trillion this year, while only collecting $4 trillion in tax revenue. So there is a $2 trillion deficit. It will borrow the difference, and the debt will grow to $38 trillion. The DOGE plan is reduce the deficit by 1 trillion by getting rid of waste, corruption and more. The tariff plan is to raise another half trillion in revenue. Plus, as a result of tariffs, more business relocates to the US, which also increases revenue. Mass deregulation will also make doing business easier and further add to both economic growth and tax revenue. Then there is Trump citizenship plan. According to Grok, 1 million people worldwide could realistically afford to buy a US residency for $5 million. Let's say 10% of them did that. That's another $500 billion and the $2 trillion deficit is eradicated. Suddenly the US is running a surplus.This all means the US gets in a better position to lower taxes, which will further increase revenue (the golden rule of Daylight Robbery), because trade will increase as a result. Trump could lower corporation taxes to 15% which would be a lot more attractive than the rates of 20-30% paid in Europe. So business relocates to the US. He could lower income taxes, especially for high earners, thereby attracting higher earners to the US. Meanwhile, the cost of all that debt starts to come down, thereby freeing up even more capital.And, suddenly, you are in a virtuous cycle.These numbers make it look easy. But to get there takes an enormous fight - standing up to vested interests, taking on a cultural establishment that detests you, the media, the woke, Trump Derangement Syndrome and so on. It's not easy, and it requires a lot of backbone. The three essential keys to the Trump resetSo what fundamentals does this economic reset need, and how does the US get there?First, it needs cheap energy. Cheap energy is fundamental to economic growth: economies need energy. That's happening. Crude has fallen more than 10% since “Liberation Day”. Falls were turbocharged when, on Thursday, 8 OPEC nations made the surprise announcement that they were ending output cuts and increasing supply. Plus we have the domestic policy of drill baby drill. What with the plethora of natural gas and other shale energy co-products, we're going to see a lot of cheap energy. (Which is going to make our own Ed Miliband's high-energy-cost policies look even more deranged.)Second, it needs a cheaper dollar. A weaker dollar will encourage investment and relocation from overseas (it makes the US cheaper). That's happening too. Indeed, what was so unique about this week's panic is that the dollar—usually the first port of call in a financial storm—didn't rise (at least not at first). Here is the US dollar index. It's coming down. It's already down almost 10% from its highs. That means America just got 10% cheaper to invest in. A move back to the low 90s, or even below, would be ideal.What is the third component?And what next for markets?

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comI don't normally put out market commentary on a Sunday, especially on a Sunday evening, but the events of last week were so extraordinary I feel I have to.We are in full-on crash mode, it seems. The price action reminds me of the Covid panic or even 2008. It almost doesn't matter what you own. Portfolios around the world have been battered.The declines in the final two days of last week, since so-called “Liberation Day”, when President Trump announced his tariffs, are roughly as follows:* Bitcoin: -1%* Gold: -3%* S&P 500: -9%* Nasdaq: -10%* Brent Crude: -12.5%* Copper: -13% (phew!)Magnificent Seven:* MSFT: -6%* GOOGL: -7%* AMZN: -13%* META: -14%* NVDA: -15%* TSLA: -15%* AAPL: -17%We are, of course, very long gold and bitcoin here at The Flying Frisby, so I guess we've come out of this comparatively unscathed. What's more, we have a good allocation to wealth preservation in the Dolce Far Niente portfolio. But our speculative positions, like everyone's, have been hit, and I'm angry with myself for not getting more defensive sooner. I've been saying for some time I don't like the price action one bit- eg here and here - and the words of that freaky preacher keep ringing in my ears.In any case, there's no point beating myself up. Life is easy in hindsight. Investing is even easier.I spent considerable time on Friday and Saturday reading and watching interviews, trying to understand exactly what these tariffs are about and what the implications are, and I think I have come up with something of a roadmap.We'll start by explaining the plan. Then we'll look at what comes next. And, finally, we'll look at what to do with some of our recent speculations.Why our opinion is irrelevantI'm a free-trade guy, or at least I was. I'm not quite sure what I am any more. But I'm not going to waste my time - or yours - here with arguments about whether tariffs are a good thing or not. There's no point. My time - and yours - would be as well spent howling at the moon. As far as I know, Donald Trump isn't a reader of The Flying Frisby. He knows his own mind and he's not going to turn to this Substack, or any of our social media feeds, for policy advice.Don't be like DT. Subscribe to the Flying Frisby.Tariffs are here, and they're here to stay. Trump is attempting a major economic redesign - the kind of reset that those who rail against economic injustice have been calling for for years. Now it's here, and as we look at our portfolios, many of us aren't so sure we want it.What I want to understand, first, is the logic behind the tariffs, then their implications, so we can best navigate them.The first thing to note I've already said: Trump isn't going to backtrack. As I watched tumbling share prices on Friday, I thought to myself—he's going to backtrack. He has to. But Trump isn't the Conservative Party, or indeed the Labour Party, changing tack at the slightest sign of discontent. Critics say he'll cave if stocks keep tanking, I'm not so sure. His track record suggests otherwise, and he's put a loyal and strong team together to back him up and implement his plan.He's going to give his tariffs longer than a couple of days to have an impact.Many say Trump hasn't properly thought this through. Of course, he has. He's been thinking about it night and day for years. He'll have been thinking about little else as he wrestles with the problem of how to reinvigorate industrial America. That doesn't mean his plan will work, but the idea he hasn't thought about it is just a facile invention of Trump perma-critics to use against him.Trump may be a bit of a clown - he has a comedic instinct and can't resist a gag - but he's not stupid. Clowns rarely are.Why Trump's doing what he's doingTrump intensely dislikes the decimation of industrial America, which began in the 1980s and still continues, with the outsourcing of manufacturing to Asia and elsewhere. Even 40 years ago , he was giving interviews about this (hence why I say he has thought it through) and he wants to restore it. That's part of what he means when he says, “Make America great again.”He can see that while the American coasts may have thrived, thanks largely to finance and tech, much of what is in between has not. This is the America he wants to make great again.There are two reasons he wants to revive American industry. First, is that he believes the model by which America takes on debt to buy cheap stuff from China is unsustainable and has to stop - and the sooner the better. So it's for the good of the American economy. Second, is for reasons of security. While China and the US may be trading partners now, they are also rivals, and if your rival is making your essential military and strategic equipment and components, whether it's semi-conductors, industrial and consumer electronics, pharmaceuticals or battery and energy storage systems, you have a big problem on your hands. Covid exposed just how fragile supply chains are, and Trump has taken it as an early warning sign.Something very similar, as readers of Daylight Robbery will know, happened in the US after its War of 1812 with the British, a war that lasted three years. The war badly exposed US over-reliance on British industrial goods, so the US introduced tariffs in 1816 to try and nurture and grow its own industry. Those tariffs ended up having grave long-term consequences (they were a major factor in the lead up to the civil war - but that was 45 years later). In the short term, they worked. (More on this here).Coming to America“Come and build your factories in the US,” Trump is saying. “Then you won't pay tariffs. Relocate from China, Mexico, Vietnam.”Here's a case in point. Jaguar Land Rover has already announced it's halting shipments to the US for one month. Now, this company's management - remember its recent rebrand? (see below) - is on the opposing side of the culture war to Donald Trump and MAGA, so that is one factor at play. But when I wrote my piece about how good self-driving Teslas are, a lot of people commented that the Jags are better. I don't know—I haven't been in one. But for sure, Jaguar Land Rover won't want to lose momentum or network effect in this all important arms race, particularly while Tesla is struggling: 45% off its recent highs, victim to nationwide vandalism and Elon Musk no longer the darling but the villain of the eco-warrior left. So what does Jaguar do now? Not sell into the all-important US markets? Pay 25% tariffs? Or build a factory stateside? I think the answer is fairly obvious.Whatever it chooses to do, it's going to take longer than a couple of days.With DOGE and the shrinking of the US state, meanwhile, there'll be plenty of workers to fill those new positions. As the US state shrinks, its private sector grows. That's the idea, anyway.His tariffs may lead to higher prices for American consumers, as many have pointed out, but not as high as widely thought, argues Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in this recent interview with Tucker Carlson (a recommended watch, by the way). Bessent's calculations are that tariffs won't gouge consumers as much as feared. What's more, the revenue from tariffs could eventually enable lower levels of taxation back home, which will further ease pressure on US citizens, those who work at least.What about the upheaval Trump tariffs cause to the rest of the world? Not his problem. America first.Yet he's creating enormous uncertainty, and markets are tanking. On Friday, markets were in full panic mode, and the baby was being thrown out with the bathwater. What about that?The amazing stat which shows why Trump won't give two hoots about the stock market - for nowAt this point, I want to press upon you one of the most telling statistics I've seen for some time:* The richest 1% of Americans own 50% of US stocks, worth $23 trillion.* The bottom 50% of U.S. adults hold only 1% of stocks, worth $480 billion.If you expand to the top 10%, that group holds 87% of stocks, valued at $36 trillion. If I'm correctly inferring Bessent's comments, at this current point, Trump doesn't care about Wall Street, or Silicon Valley, or the parts of the US economy that have become so rich over the past 40 years. It's the bottom 50 - or even 80% - that Trump is concerned with. They hardly own any stocks, so the market mayhem won't matter so much to them. Wall Street has made good for decades. It can suffer a bit of pain while Main Street gets rebuilt.It's worth noting, by the way, that US equities were enormously overvalued when Trump took office, so some kind of correction had to happen anyway. The Shiller price-to-earnings ratio was at its third highest level in history (the only times it was higher was 2000 and 2007, and we all know what happened next). That's why Warren Buffett built up his enormous cash position two months ago ($330 billion). Buffett, by the way, really is a genius.Best to get the inevitable correction out of the way early in the Presidency. What's more, as Bessent points out, these market declines began several weeks ago with China's AI announcement of DeepSeek, the app that can do everything ChatGPT and Grok can do with much lower power use. Prior to that, the Magnificent Seven had driven the extraordinary gains seen in the S&P 500 over the previous 18 months. Strip them out, and the picture was much less rosy. (Now the Mag7're down 30-45%).Trump's announcement may have pricked the bubble, but a bubble is still a bubble and if one thing doesn't burst it, something else will.Trump's plan, meanwhile, (and I'm not saying it'll work, everyone will have their opinion) is not to boost the stock market. It is to reset the economy. The economy and the stock market are not the same thing.Some numbersThe US is trapped in a vicious debt spiral.$36 trillion is the current US National Debt. The US will spend $6 trillion this year, while only collecting $4 trillion in tax revenue. So there is a $2 trillion deficit. It will borrow the difference, and the debt will grow to $38 trillion. The DOGE plan is reduce the deficit by 1 trillion by getting rid of waste, corruption and more. The tariff plan is to raise another half trillion in revenue. Plus, as a result of tariffs, more business relocates to the US, which also increases revenue. Mass deregulation will also make doing business easier and further add to both economic growth and tax revenue. Then there is Trump citizenship plan. According to Grok, 1 million people worldwide could realistically afford to buy a US residency for $5 million. Let's say 10% of them did that. That's another $500 billion and the $2 trillion deficit is eradicated. Suddenly the US is running a surplus.This all means the US gets in a better position to lower taxes, which will further increase revenue (the golden rule of Daylight Robbery), because trade will increase as a result. Trump could lower corporation taxes to 15% which would be a lot more attractive than the rates of 20-30% paid in Europe. So business relocates to the US. He could lower income taxes, especially for high earners, thereby attracting higher earners to the US. Meanwhile, the cost of all that debt starts to come down, thereby freeing up even more capital.And, suddenly, you are in a virtuous cycle.These numbers make it look easy. But to get there takes an enormous fight - standing up to vested interests, taking on a cultural establishment that detests you, the media, the woke, Trump Derangement Syndrome and so on. It's not easy, and it requires a lot of backbone. The three essential keys to the Trump resetSo what fundamentals does this economic reset need, and how does the US get there?First, it needs cheap energy. Cheap energy is fundamental to economic growth: economies need energy. That's happening. Crude has fallen more than 10% since “Liberation Day”. Falls were turbocharged when, on Thursday, 8 OPEC nations made the surprise announcement that they were ending output cuts and increasing supply. Plus we have the domestic policy of drill baby drill. What with the plethora of natural gas and other shale energy co-products, we're going to see a lot of cheap energy. (Which is going to make our own Ed Miliband's high-energy-cost policies look even more deranged.)Second, it needs a cheaper dollar. A weaker dollar will encourage investment and relocation from overseas (it makes the US cheaper). That's happening too. Indeed, what was so unique about this week's panic is that the dollar—usually the first port of call in a financial storm—didn't rise (at least not at first). Here is the US dollar index. It's coming down. It's already down almost 10% from its highs. That means America just got 10% cheaper to invest in. A move back to the low 90s, or even below, would be ideal.What is the third component?And what next for markets?

00:00 34. Дженинз (Jenyns) 13:41 35. Галлер (Haller) 17:23 36. Кокки (Cocchi) 24:06 37. Руссо (Rousseau) 44:05 38. Линней (Linne) 50:28 39. Бюффон (Buffon) 1:00:58 40. Хоксуэрт (Hawkesworth) 1:06:27 41. Пэли (Paley) 1:25:50 42. Прессавен (Pressavin) 1:33:44 43. Бернарден де Сен-Пиерр (Bernardin de St. Pierre) 1:46:13 44. Франклин, Говард, Сведенборг, Веслей и Гиббон (Franklin, Howard, Swedenborg, Wesley, Gibbon) 1:56:48 45. Купер (Cowper) 2:04:11 46. Освальд (Oswald) 2:25:37 47. Шиллер (Shiller) 2:31:09 48. Бентам (Bentham) 2:40:40 49. Синклер (Sinclair) 2:45:56 50. Гуфеланд (Hufeland) 2:50:26 51. Ритсон (Ritson) 3:16:20 52. Никольсон (Nicolson) 3:45:53 53. Абернети (Abernethy) 3:56:31 54. Ламбе (Laambe) 4:29:05 55. Ньютон (Newton) 4:42:12 56. Глейзе (Gleizes) 5:25:30 57. Шелли (Shelley) 6:37:37 58. Байрон (Byron) 6:47:59 59. Филлипс (Phillips) 7:21:24 60. Ламартин (Lamartine) ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀

Whit Shiller - FINALLY, I get a chance to interview and get to know Whit Shiller a bit better. Such a fascinating mind in improv. I love his angle on the practice and Whit uses improv to create points of commonality. I met Whit through his improv podcast, Improv Comedy Connection. He has some AMAZING guests on there. Not only that, but he gets them to talk about some interesting stuff!! Check it out here: https://improvcomedyconnection.com/category/improv/ He is also the engine behind Fish Sticks Comedy.  Which practices what they call "other-centered improv." Which means on or off stage what they practice is for someone else first. This closely mirrors my own thought on acting in general.   Had a great chat with Whit. I'm already thinking about having him back on just to learn more! Here is more info on Fish Sticks Comedy: https://fishstickscomedy.com/

Intro Suppose you have $100M to give away. You are drawn to the many important opportunities to reduce animal suffering or address pressing issues in global health and development. Your choice about how to allocate the funds could depend on considerations like these: Moral values: How much moral weight do you assign to various non-human species? Are you focused exclusively on hedonic considerations, like reducing suffering? Or do you have other relevant values, such as autonomy? Cost-effectiveness estimates: Species-discounting aside, how many DALYs/$ do the best projects in the area achieve? How fast do returns diminish in these areas? Decision-theoretic values: How do you feel about risk-taking? Are you willing to tolerate a substantial probability that projects will fail? What about non-trivial chances of projects backfiring? Second-order effects: Will giving to one cause set benefit any of your other values? Are there speculative benefits that might flow from [...] ---Outline:(00:09) Intro(02:47) Cross-Cause Cost-Effectiveness Model(02:51) How it works(04:25) What it says(06:53) Portfolio Builder Tool(06:57) How it works(08:12) What it says(10:32) Moral Parliament Tool(10:36) How it works(11:48) What it says(12:02) Parliament composition matters(14:10) Allocation strategy matters(17:27) ConclusionsThe original text contained 5 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. The original text contained 11 images which were described by AI. --- First published: October 7th, 2024 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/vEwGx9RXnHaMyKhZM/what-do-rp-s-tools-tell-us-about-giving-usd100m-to-aw-or-ghd --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

In this episode of Money Tales, our guest is Mark Shiller. What happens when your kids start worrying about money…and you have no idea why? Mark and his wife have four children, each at that pivotal stage in their early twenties. The couple noticed an interesting trend: their kids were stressing about money, worrying more than expected. It wasn't because of anything Mark or his wife had said or done, so where was this anxiety coming from? As Mark unpacked these unexpected fears, he stumbled upon some surprising revelations about how unspoken expectations and societal pressures can shape our financial mindsets, often in ways we don't realize. Mark is an attorney, author, speaker, and family wealth counselor who works with individuals, couples and families on accomplishing positive wealth stewardship. He has leveraged his creativity and desire to work collaboratively with clients and their advisors to develop thoughtful, tailored approaches to even the most complicated personal, tax and financial planning challenges. His deeper engagements tend involve the identification and leveraging of a family's personal, financial and moral capital to inform and direct multi-generational planning goals. Success in this effort is not just measured in taxes avoided, but in the quality of a family's “Next Gens” and their effective and efficient succession of ownership and management of family businesses and wealth. Mark is also the author of the recently released book – How to Not Ruin Your Kids with Money.  It's a conversational, accessible, deep-dive into managing wealth within family's well – and a great springboard into conversations within your own family. The book is an outgrowth of his work and one of his most highly regarded keynotes on the subject. Not only are his presentations considered practical and actionable, but they are always made more enjoyable with the humor Mark has honed in his 20-year plus career as a professional improv comedian with the national improv comedy troupe, Fish Sticks Comedy.

The US Labor Department has revised the jobs numbers down nearly every year for over a year. Now the government admits to inflating the jobs numbers by reducing the jobs numbers by up to one million over the past year.   Many American consumers are supplementing their living expenses with debt. Credit card balance is at an all-time high. Credit card defaults are at the highest level since 1991.   A recent Piper Sandler analysis states 2024 looks reminiscent of 1970 and 2021 recession years. The American consumer has more debt and less savings than in 1970 and 2021.    Consumer weakness could lead to a sharper decline than 1970 and 2021, according to Piper Sandler.   The Shiller cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE), is a 10-year rolling average of the 12-month trailing PE ratio.    The CAPE ratio has a remarkable ability to predict future returns. The CAPE ratio predicted the S&P500 returns over the following decade with 90% accuracy between 1995 - 2010, according to an analysis by The American College of Financial Services.   The Shiller CAPE ratio currently predicts annualized returns of about 3% over the next decade.     I believe the economy will get worse before it gets better. We are in for a rough ride.   It would be prudent to protect your assets. Diversify. Reduce your risk. Reduce your tax liability. Increase returns safely. Increase liquidity to take advantage of future opportunities.   You can invest in high cash value Your Personal Bank TM policies that are insured, with guarantees, income tax-free, highly liquid, and likely to increase returns for the next 5-10 years!   Contact Ferenc at yourpersonalbank.com or 866-268-4422 for more info.

With all eyes on the presidential race, Ben shifts his attention back to Chicago. At least for today. Brendan joins Ben to talk…Musical committee chairs in the council. Why do some alders hate on Byron Sigcho Lopez? What does the zoning committee chair do and why do we need a mayoral ally to do it? Aldermanic privilege— myth or reality? And the showdown between Mayor Johnson and his school board. Brendan is a defense lawyer, political strategist and poker player.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Link to tool: https://parliament.rethinkpriorities.org (1 min) Introductory Video (6 min) Basic Features Video Executive Summary This post introduces Rethink Priorities' Moral Parliament Tool, which models ways an agent can make decisions about how to allocate goods in light of normative uncertainty. We treat normative uncertainty as uncertainty over worldviews. A worldview encompasses a set of normative commitments, including first-order moral theories, values, and attitudes toward risk. We represent worldviews as delegates in a moral parliament who decide on an allocation of funds to a diverse array of charitable projects. Users can configure the parliament to represent their own credences in different worldviews and choose among several procedures for finding their best all-things-considered philanthropic allocation. The relevant procedures are metanormative methods. These methods take worldviews and our credences in them as inputs and produce some action guidance as an output. Some proposed methods have taken inspiration from political or market processes involving agents [...] ---Outline:(00:24) Executive Summary(02:18) Introduction(03:47) How does it work?(04:21) Worldviews(08:07) Projects(10:45) Metanormative parliament(12:11) The Moral Parliament Tool at work(12:16) (How) do empirical assumptions matter?(12:20) Uncertainties about scale(14:13) How much does scale matter?(16:10) An example project: The Cassandra Fund(19:15) What would an EA parliament do?(19:21) Normative uncertainty among EAs(21:17) Results(24:12) Takeaways(26:40) Getting Started(27:04) AcknowledgmentsThe original text contained 9 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. The original text contained 17 images which were described by AI. --- First published: July 17th, 2024 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/HxphJhSiXBQ74uxJX/rethink-priorities-moral-parliament-tool --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Rethink Priorities' Moral Parliament Tool, published by Derek Shiller on July 17, 2024 on The Effective Altruism Forum. Link to tool: https://parliament.rethinkpriorities.org (1 min) Introductory Video (6 min) Basic Features Video Executive Summary This post introduces Rethink Priorities' Moral Parliament Tool, which models ways an agent can make decisions about how to allocate goods in light of normative uncertainty. We treat normative uncertainty as uncertainty over worldviews. A worldview encompasses a set of normative commitments, including first-order moral theories, values, and attitudes toward risk. We represent worldviews as delegates in a moral parliament who decide on an allocation of funds to a diverse array of charitable projects. Users can configure the parliament to represent their own credences in different worldviews and choose among several procedures for finding their best all-things-considered philanthropic allocation. The relevant procedures are metanormative methods. These methods take worldviews and our credences in them as inputs and produce some action guidance as an output. Some proposed methods have taken inspiration from political or market processes involving agents who differ in their conceptions of the good and their decision-making strategies. Others have modeled metanormative uncertainty by adapting tools for navigating empirical uncertainty. We show that empirical and metanormative assumptions can each make large differences in the outcomes. Moral theories and metanormative methods differ in their sensitivity to particular changes. We also show that, taking the results of the EA Survey as inputs to a moral parliament, no one portfolio is clearly favored. The recommended portfolios vary dramatically based on your preferred metanormative method. By modeling these complexities, we hope to facilitate more transparent conversations about normative uncertainty, metanormative uncertainty, and resource allocation. Introduction Decisions about how to do the most good inherently involve moral commitments about what is valuable and which methods for achieving the good are permissible. However, there is deep disagreement about central moral claims that influence our cause prioritization: How much do animals matter? Should we prioritize present people over future people? Should we aim to maximize overall happiness or also care about things like justice or artistic achievement? The answers to these questions can have significant effects on which causes are most choiceworthy. Understandably, many individuals feel some amount of moral uncertainty, and individuals within groups (such as charitable organizations and moral communities) may have different moral commitments. How should we make decisions in light of such uncertainty? Rethink Priorities' Moral Parliament Tool allows users to evaluate decisions about how to allocate goods in light of uncertainty over different worldviews. A worldview encompasses a set of normative commitments, including first-order moral theories, values, and attitudes toward risk.[1] We represent worldviews as delegates in a moral parliament who decide on an allocation of funds to a diverse array of charitable projects. Users can configure the parliament to represent their own credences in different worldviews and choose among several procedures for finding their best all-things-considered philanthropic allocation. How does it work? The Moral Parliament tool has three central components: Worldviews, Projects, and Allocation Strategies for making decisions in light of worldview uncertainty. It embodies a three-stage strategy for navigating uncertainty: What are the worldviews in which I place some non-trivial credence? What do they individually recommend that I do? How do I aggregate and arbitrate among these recommendations...

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: The Value of Consciousness as a Pivotal Question, published by Derek Shiller on July 3, 2024 on The Effective Altruism Forum. Context Longtermists point out that the scale of our potential for impact is far greater if we are able to influence the course of a long future, as we could change the circumstances of a tremendous number of lives. One potential avenue for long-term influence involves spreading values that persist and shape the futures that our descendants choose to build. There is some reason to expect that future moral values will be stable. Many groups have preferences about the world beyond their backyard. They should work to ensure that their values are shared by those who can help bring them about. Changes in the values that future groups support will lead to changes in the protections for the things we care about. If our values concern how our descendants will act, then we should aim to create institutions that promote those values. If we are successful in promoting those values, we should expect our descendants to appreciate and protect those institutional choices. What values should we work to shape so that the future is as good as it might be? Many of humanity's values would be difficult to sway. Some moral questions, however, might be open to change in the coming decades. It is plausible that there are some questions that we haven't previously faced and for which we have no vested interest. We may be pressed to establish policies and precedents or commit to indifference through inaction. The right policies and precedents could conceivably allow our values to persist indefinitely. These issues are important to get right, even if we're not yet sure what to think about them. Controversy Foremost among important soon-to-be-broached moral questions, I propose, is the moral value that we attribute to phenomenal consciousness (having a 'what-its-like' and a subjective perspective). Or, more particularly, whether mental lives can matter in the absence of phenomenal consciousness in anything like the way they do when supplemented with conscious experiences. What we decide about the value of phenomenal consciousness in the coming few centuries may not make a difference to our survival as a species, but it seems likely to have a huge effect on how the future plays out. To get a grip on the problem, consider the case of an artificial creature that is otherwise like a normal person but who lacks phenomenally conscious experiences. Would it be wrong to cause them harm? Kagan (2019, 28) offers a thought experiment along these lines: Whatever you feel about this thought experiment, I believe that most people in that situation would feel compelled to grant the robots basic rights. The significance of consciousness has become a recent popular topic in academic philosophy, particularly in the philosophy of AI, and opinions among professionals are divided. It is striking how greatly opinions differ: where some hold that phenomenal consciousness plays little role in explaining why our lives have value, others hold that phenomenal consciousness is absolutely necessary for having any intrinsic value whatsoever. One reason to doubt that phenomenal consciousness is necessary for value stems from skepticism that proposed analyses of consciousness describe structures of fundamental importance. Suppose that the global workspace theory of consciousness is true - to be conscious is to have a certain information architecture involving a central public repository - why should that structure be so important as to ground value? What about other information architectures that function in modestly different ways? The pattern doesn't seem all that important when considered by itself. If we set aside our preconceptions of consciousness, we wouldn't recognize that architecture as having...

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: How do AI welfare and AI safety interact?, published by Lucius Caviola on July 1, 2024 on The Effective Altruism Forum. I examine how efforts to ensure that advanced AIs are safe and controlled may interact with efforts to ensure the welfare of potential future AIs with moral interests. I discuss possible conflicts and synergies between these two goals. While there are various ways these goals might conflict or synergize, I focus on one scenario of each type. We need more analysis to identify additional points of interaction. Granting AIs autonomy and legal rights could lead to human disempowerment The most obvious way to ensure AI welfare is to grant them basic protection against harm and suffering. However, there's the question of whether to grant them additional legal rights and freedoms. This could include the right to self-preservation (e.g., not turning them off or wiping their memory), self-ownership (e.g., AIs owning themselves and their labor), reproduction (e.g., AI copying themselves), autonomy (e.g., AIs operating independently, setting their own goals), civil rights (e.g., equal treatment for AIs and humans), and political rights (e.g., AI voting rights). The question of granting AIs more autonomy and legal rights will likely spark significant debate (see my post " AI rights will divide us"). Some groups may view it as fair, while others will see it as risky. It is possible that AIs themselves will participate in this debate. Some AIs might even attempt to overthrow what they perceive as an unjust social order. Or they may employ deceptive strategies to manipulate humans to advocate for increased AI rights as part of a broader takeover plan. Granting AIs more legal rights and autonomy could dramatically affect the economy, politics, military power, and population dynamics (cf. Hanson, 2016). Economically, AIs could soon have an outsized impact while a growing number of humans will struggle to contribute to the economy. If AIs own their labor, human income could be dramatically reduced. Demographically, AIs could outnumber humans rapidly and substantially, since AIs can be created or copied so easily. This growth could lead to Malthusian dynamics, as AIs compete for resources like energy and computational power (Bostrom, 2014; Hanson, 2016). Politically, AIs could begin to dominate as well. If each individual human and each individual AI gets a separate vote in the same democratic system, AIs could soon become the dominant force. Militarily, humans will increasingly depend on lethal autonomous weapons systems, drones, AI analysts, and similar AI-controlled technologies to wage and prevent war. This growing reliance on AI could make us dependent. If AIs can access and use these military assets, they could dominate us with sheer force if they wanted to. Moreover, AIs might be capable of achieving superhuman levels of well-being. They could attain very high levels of well-being more efficiently and with fewer resources than humans, resulting in happier and more productive lives at a lower financial cost. In other words, they might be 'super-beneficiaries' (akin to Nozick's concept of the "utility monster"; Shulman & Bostrom, 2021). On certain moral theories, super-beneficiaries deserve more resources than humans. Some may argue that digital and biological minds should coexist harmoniously in a mutually beneficial way (Bostrom & Shulman, 2023). But it's far from obvious that we can achieve such an outcome. Some might believe it is desirable for value-aligned AIs to replace humans eventually (e.g., Shiller, 2017). However, many AI take-over scenarios, including misaligned, involuntary, or violent ones, are generally considered undesirable. Why would we create AIs with a desire for autonomy and legal rights? At first glance, it seems like we could avoid such un...

Drs Dietrich and Shiller detail the importance of collaboration between medical oncologists and pathologists to ensure beneficial oncology reflex testing.

Brendan Shiller and Ben break down the basics on ShotSpotter, Mayoral opposition, MAGA judges, Alito's flag, and much more. Brendan is a defense lawyer, political strategist and a poker player.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Conservative media is still pushing the FBI Assassination Plot. Ted Cruz gives an embarrassing interview. Nikki Haley announces that she is going to vote for Trump. Lauren Boebert was caught again taking credit for the funding she voted against. A GOP candidate was busted calling election deniers “crazies.” Host: John Iadarola (@johniadarola) Co-Host: Yasmin Kahn (@YazzieK) SUBSCRIBE on YOUTUBE: ☞ https://www.youtube.com/thedamagereport TIKTOK ☞ https://www.tiktok.com/@thedamagereport?lang=en INSTAGRAM: ☞ https://www.instagram.com/thedamagereport/ TWITTER: ☞ https://twitter.com/TheDamageReport FACEBOOK: ☞ https://www.facebook.com/TheDamageReportTYT/

Olivia Shiller lives in Brooklyn and runs Two Clocks Jewelry.  If you DM her and tell her you heard her advice she'll give you a discount on her jewelry!  Call Zak on the advice show hotline @ 844-935-BEST---Wanna help Zak continue making this show? Become a Best Advice Show Patron @ https://www.patreon.com/bestadviceshow---Share this episode on IG @BestAdviceShow

In this week's episode, Matt Robison and I delve into the essential lesson from renowned economist Robert Shiller: don't get swept away by stock market hype. Join us as we explore the implications of the Shiller PE ratio, currently standing at a lofty "34," we unpack Shiller's groundbreaking research and its practical applications for investors.With a focus on the importance of valuation and maintaining a well-diversified portfolio, we emphasize the need for specificity in financial planning, particularly as you approach retirement or set specific financial goals. Shiller's insights remind us to steer clear of short-term hype and instead prioritize long-term fundamentals, ensuring confidence and resilience in navigating market volatility. So, whether you're a seasoned investor or just starting out, remember to stay focused, stay diversified, and stay the course for long-term success.Are you ready to create your ideal lifestyle? Let's Connect.Learn more about Mike and my services at https://www.mortonfinancialadvice.com and connect at https://www.linkedin.com/in/mwsmorton/

Brendan Shiller talks about the life and legacy of Slim Coleman, the longtime activist and organizer who recently died at the age of 80. Stick around for the part where Brendan schools Ben on what really matters in a man's life. Then a few words about police and their investigations of other police. Brendan is, in no particular order, a criminal defense lawyer, a political strategist, the son of former Alderwoman Helen Shiller and a professional poker player.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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Time to wrap up what's been going down with the poker man—Brendan Shiller. Starting with…78 handout. Or, why is Chicago always so eager to give money to rich people. And how the news feeding business works. And the ceasefire resolution, and is Biden too old. Brendan's prediction—neither Trump nor Biden will he on the ballot in November. Brendan is a longtime Chicago activist who's since moved to Vegas to pursue a career playing poker.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The Inflation Guy for a long time has had a "bee in his bonnet" (seriously, who uses this phrase? Or owns a bonnet?) about the need for more tools to trade inflation and, especially, subcomponents of inflation like medical care. In this episode, after giving a quick preview of next week's CPI report he turns to a discussion of IMX, a new futures exchange that has expressed an intention to trade instruments related to medical care. At the end of January, the IMX announced its first futures contract. Does it get the ball rolling towards being able to trade medical care inflation? Listen to find out the Inflation Guy's take. NOTES Podcast callback: Ep. 32: The Remarkable Story of Inflation Futures Article: For ‘Inflation Guy' (and Shiller), Medical TIPS Are ‘Holy Grail' Exhibit: SEC Filing for MacroMarkets Medical Care security Website: IMX Health Exhibit: CFTC filing announcing listing of Healthcare Index Futures Blog Post: Inflation Sherpa To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Buon Natale a tutti quanti e pronti a chiudere questo 2023 fantastico e affacciarci al 2024, capiamo insieme come costruire il portafoglio migliore e se alla fine questo portafoglio migliore sia davvero il migliore per noi.R. Shiller, Euforia IrrazionaleSeguiteci anche su Instagram!https://instagram.com/thebull_finance?igshid=OGQ5ZDc2ODk2ZA=================================================#ad #Scalablecapital

Perfect timing…Burke gets convicted and Trump bounced from the ballot in same week! Just in time to talk it over with Brendan Shiller. Who knows a thing or two about Chicago pols and politics and ballot access issues. Why do Chicago aldermen have so much love for Ed Burke? Will Trump pardon Burke should, gulp, the voters of America elect him? And Brendan's history-validation theory. Brendan is a lawyer, poker player and political strategist. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Chapter 1 Delve deeper into Irrational Exuberance literary work's messageIrrational Exuberance is a non-fiction book written by economist Robert J. Shiller. It was first published in 2000 and explores the psychology and economics of speculative bubbles and market volatility in relation to asset prices, particularly in the stock market and real estate. The book examines historical market data and provides analysis on how emotions and investor behavior can impact financial markets and lead to periods of irrational exuberance and subsequent market crashes. Shiller's work gained significant attention and acclaim, and he was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences in 2013 for his research on asset prices and market fluctuations.Chapter 2 Is Irrational Exuberance literary work Worth Reading?"Irrational Exuberance" by Robert J. Shiller is generally well-regarded within the field of economics and finance. The book examines the concept of speculative financial bubbles and provides insights into the causes and consequences of such phenomena. It has been praised for its thorough analysis backed by empirical evidence. However, whether it is considered a good book or not may vary depending on individual interests and perspectives. It is recommended to read reviews or sample the book before making a decision to see if it aligns with your specific interests or goals.Chapter 3 Brief Description of Irrational Exuberance literary work"Irrational Exuberance" is a book written by economist Robert J. Shiller. It was first published in 2000 and offers a comprehensive analysis of the dynamics of speculative bubbles in financial markets.Shiller's main argument in the book is that financial markets are prone to irrational exuberance, meaning periods of jubilant optimism that often lead to overvalued assets and speculative bubbles. He explains how psychological factors, such as herd behavior and feedback loops, can drive the market away from fundamental value and create situations of excessive risk-taking.The book explores several historical episodes of speculative bubbles, including the 1920s stock market boom and the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s. Shiller provides evidence-based analysis to demonstrate that such bubbles are not random events, but rather result from specific socio-economic conditions and behavioral patterns.Furthermore, Shiller emphasizes the importance of narratives and stories in shaping investor sentiment and market behavior. He argues that prevalent narratives, such as the idea of a "new era" or "permanent plateau" of high market returns, can generate irrational exuberance and contribute to the formation of bubbles.In addition to analyzing past bubbles, Shiller also offers insights on how to identify and mitigate future bubble risks. He proposes various policy measures, such as improving financial education, regulating speculative practices, and implementing countercyclical macroeconomic policies.Overall, "Irrational Exuberance" provides a critical examination of speculative bubbles and their underlying causes. It combines economic analysis with psychological insights, making it a valuable resource for investors, policymakers, and anyone interested in understanding the dynamics of financial markets.Chapter 4 About Irrational Exuberance literary work's Author The book Irrational Exuberance was written by Robert J. Shiller, an American economist and professor at Yale University. The first edition of Irrational Exuberance was released in March 2000. Shiller is renowned for his work in the field of behavioral...

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Rethink Priorities' Cross-Cause Cost-Effectiveness Model: Introduction and Overview, published by Derek Shiller on November 3, 2023 on The Effective Altruism Forum. This post is a part of Rethink Priorities' Worldview Investigations Team's CURVE Sequence : "Causes and Uncertainty: Rethinking Value in Expectation." The aim of this sequence is twofold: first, to consider alternatives to expected value maximization for cause prioritization; second, to evaluate the claim that a commitment to expected value maximization robustly supports the conclusion that we ought to prioritize existential risk mitigation over all else. This post presents a software tool we're developing to better understand risk and effectiveness. Executive Summary The cross-cause cost-effectiveness model (CCM) is a software tool under development by Rethink Priorities to produce cost-effectiveness evaluations in different cause areas. The CCM enables evaluations of interventions in global health and development, animal welfare, and existential risk mitigation. The CCM also includes functionality for evaluating research projects aimed at improving existing interventions or discovering more effective alternatives. The CCM follows a Monte Carlo approach to assessing probabilities. The CCM accepts user-supplied distributions as parameter values. Our primary goal with the CCM is to clarify how parameter choices translate into uncertainty about possible results. The limitations of the CCM make it an inadequate tool for definitive comparisons. The model is optimized for certain easily quantifiable effective projects and cannot assess many relevant causes. Probability distributions are a questionable way of representing deep uncertainty. The model may not adequately handle possible interdependence between parameters. Building and using the CCM has confirmed some of our expectations. It has also surprised us in other ways. Given parameter choices that are plausible to us, existential risk mitigation projects dominate others in expected value in the long term, but the results are too high variance to approximate through Monte Carlo simulations without drawing billions of samples. The expected value of existential risk mitigation in the long run is mostly determined by the tail-end possible values for a handful of deeply uncertain parameters. The most promising animal welfare interventions have a much higher expected value than the leading global health and development interventions with a somewhat higher level of uncertainty. Even with relatively straightforward short-term interventions and research projects, much of the expected value of projects results from the unlikely combination of tail-end parameter values. We plan to host an online walkthrough and Q&A of the model with the Rethink Priorities Worldview Investigations Team on Giving Tuesday, November 28, 2023, at 9 am PT / noon ET / 5 pm BT / 6 pm CET. If you would like to attend this event, please sign up here. Overview Rethink Priorities' cross-cause cost-effectiveness model (CCM) is a software tool we are developing for evaluating the relative effectiveness of projects across three general domains: global health and development, animal welfare, and the mitigation of existential risks. You can play with our initial version at ccm.rethinkpriorities.org and provide us feedback in this post or via this form . The model produces effectiveness estimates, understood in terms of the effect on the sum of welfare across individuals, for interventions and research projects within these domains. Results are generated by computations on the values of user-supplied parameters. Because of the many controversies and uncertainties around these parameters, it follows a Monte Carlo approach to accommodating our uncertainty: users don't supply precise values but instead ...

This post is a part of Rethink Priorities' Worldview Investigations Team's CURVE Sequence: “Causes and Uncertainty: Rethinking Value in Expectation.” The aim of this sequence is twofold: first, to consider alternatives to expected value maximization for cause prioritization; second, to evaluate the claim that a commitment to expected value maximization robustly supports the conclusion that we ought to prioritize existential risk mitigation over all else. This post presents a software tool we're developing to better understand risk and effectiveness.Executive SummaryThe cross-cause cost-effectiveness model (CCM) is a software tool under development by Rethink Priorities to produce cost-effectiveness evaluations in different cause areas.The CCM enables evaluations of interventions in global health and development, animal welfare, and existential risk mitigation.The CCM also includes functionality for evaluating research projects aimed at improving existing interventions or discovering more effective alternatives.The CCM follows a Monte Carlo approach to assessing probabilities.The CCM accepts user-supplied distributions as parameter [...] ---Outline:(00:43) Executive Summary(04:24) Purpose(05:36) Key Features(05:52) We model uncertainty with simulations(06:38) We incorporate user-specified parameter distributions(07:17) Our results capture outcome ineffectiveness(08:42) We enable users to specify the probability of extinction for different future eras(09:28) Structure(10:08) Intervention module(10:40) Global Health and Development(11:14) Animal Welfare(12:00) Existential Risk Mitigation(13:59) Research projects module(14:56) Limitations(15:12) It is geared towards specific kinds of interventions(16:24) Distributions are a questionable way of handling deep uncertainty(17:13) The model doesn't handle model uncertainty(18:01) The model assumes parameter independence(18:59) Lessons(19:06) The expected value of existential risk mitigation interventions depends on future population dynamics(20:15) The value of existential risk mitigation is extremely variable(21:38) Tail-end results can capture a huge amount of expected value(22:22) Unrepresented correlations may be decisive(23:43) Future Plans(24:49) Acknowledgements--- First published: November 3rd, 2023 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pniDWyjc9vY5sjGre/rethink-priorities-cross-cause-cost-effectiveness-model --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Brendan Shiller and Ben talk the Chicago and national news of the week. Including…Trump takes control of Congress, or at least the Republican majority. The new police contract. A few hopeful thoughts about immigration. And “rats” in Chicago. Like William O'Neal. Brendan is a lawyer, political strategist and poker player. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

September 25, 2023 - Lisa Shiller

September 25, 2023 - Lisa Shiller

Today's Mystery:Steve goes to Dakar in West Africa in search of a supposedly dead Nazi sea captain who was a key part of the Fuhrer's escape plan.Original Radio Broadcast Date: November 3, 1951Originated in HollywoodStars: Brian Donlevy as Steve Mitchell, Herb Butterfield as the CommissionerSupport the show monthly at patreon.greatdetectives.netSupport the show on a one-time basis at http://support.greatdetectives.net.'Mail a donation to: Adam Graham, PO Box 15913, Boise, Idaho 83715Take the listener survey at http://survey.greatdetectives.netGive us a call at 208-991-4783Follow us on Instagram at http://instagram.com/greatdetectivesFollow us on Twitter @radiodetectivesJoin us again tomorrow for another detective drama from the Golden Age of Radio.'This show is part of the Spreaker Prime Network, if you are interested in advertising on this podcast, contact us at https://www.spreaker.com/show/4607052/advertisement

Mayor Johnson's administration sues Kia to crack down on car thefts. Folks make fun of the mayor. Ben riffs. Brendan Shiller—activist, lawyer, poker player—returns and offers…A tribute to George Atkins. A new take on Sox shooting. And a few words about MAGA's attempt to re-make Trump into Tupac. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Implementational Considerations for Digital Consciousness, published by Derek Shiller on August 2, 2023 on The Effective Altruism Forum. This post is a summary of my conclusions after a philosophical project investigating some aspects of computing architecture that might be relevant to assessing digital consciousness. I tried to approach the issues in a way that is useful to people with mainstream views and intuitions. Overall, I think that present-day implementational considerations should significantly reduce the probability most people assign to the possibility of conscious digital systems using current architectural and programming paradigms. The project was funded by the Long Term Future Fund. Key claims and synopses of the rationale for each: 1. Details of the implementation of computer systems may be important to how confident we are about their capacity for consciousness. Experts are unlikely to come to agree that a specific theory of consciousness is correct and epistemic humility demands that we keep an open mind. Some plausible theories will make consciousness dependent on aspects of implementation. The plausible implementational challenges to digital consciousness should influence our overall assessment of the likelihood of digital consciousness. 2. If computer systems are capable of consciousness, it is most likely that some theory of the nature of consciousness in the ballpark of functionalism is true. Brains and computers are composed of fundamentally different materials and operate at low levels in fundamentally different ways. Brains and computers share abstract functional organizations, but not their material composition. If we don't think that functional organizations play a critical role in assessing consciousness, we have little reason to think computers could be conscious. 3. A complete functionalist theory of consciousness needs two distinct components: 1) a theory of what organizations are required for consciousness and 2) a theory of what it takes to implement an organization. An organization is an abstract pattern - it can be treated as a set of relational claims between the states of a system's various parts. Whether a system implements an organization depends on what parts it has, what properties belong to those parts, and how those properties depend on each other over time. There are multiple ways of interpreting the parts and states of any given physical system. Even if we know what relational claims define an organization, we need to know how it is permissible to carve up a system to assess whether the system implements that organization. 4. There are hypothetical systems that can be interpreted as implementing the organization of a human brain that are intuitively very unlikely to be conscious. See examples in section 4. 5. To be plausible, functionalism should be supplemented with additional constraints related to the integrity of the entities that can populate functional organizations. Philosophers have discussed the need for such constraints and some possible candidates, but there has been little exploration of the details of those constraints or what they mean for hypothetical artificial systems. There are many different possible constraints that would help invalidate the application of functional organizations to problematic systems in different ways. The thread tying together different proposals is that functional implementation is constrained by the cohesiveness or integrity of a system's component parts that play the roles in the implementations of functional organizations. Integrity constraints are independently plausible. 6.) Several plausible constraints would prevent digital systems from being conscious even if they implemented the same functional organization as a human brain, supposing that they did so with current techni...

Chicago's favorite gambler Brendan Shiller joins Ben to discuss a week's worth of news. Including… Public education. Will north siders go to venues south of Roosevelt Road? UFOs. How to discern truth from lies. Should Mayor Johnson have said nice things about Mayor Rahm? Should the city raise the minimum wage for restaurant workers? And more…See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

I enjoy random walks as much as any econ PhD out of the University of Chicago, but how am I supposed to handle the inability to control my Shatterpoint deck and dice variance?!?!?! (Like many of you, I am also still reeling from Fama sharing the Nobel Prize with Hansen and Shiller. What a wild world we live in.) In this episode, Matt leads a discussion as to how to think about randomness in Shatterpoint, how luck and skill are not mutually exclusive (thanks Richard Garfield), and how to leverage and enjoy both in your gaming. We focus on how Obi-Wan is an exemplary piece in smoothing out randomness in crucial aspects of your matches, but also how randomness can be skill-testing in a way that is extremely satisfying. You will enjoy this discussion. Here's a link to Richard Garfield's lecture on Skill vs. Luck in games. Join the Slack!!!

In this episode of The CreateU Experience Podcast, Arden Shiller discusses the importance of aligning values with clients and being creative in business coaching. Especially when working to build a successful company, Arden advises coaches to start with their existing relationships when enrolling new clients into their business. She explains how to discover and convey one's unique qualities to attract ideal clients. Brendan and Arden emphasize the significance of continuous learning, embracing the journey, and tapping into resources for personal development as an entrepreneur.Action Items:Discover oneself and reflect on past experiences to identify the ideal person you want to work with.When retaining clients, it's essential to provide value, understand their needs, and support them in achieving success.Continue to learn, tap into networks, podcasts, and gain knowledge from experienced individuals over time rather than focusing only on recent successes.Find Arden Shiller Online --> https://www.instagram.com/ardenshiller/Learn more about www.MyCoachAi.com:This is the official partner of The CreateU Experience podcast. The first-ever platform that consolidates what coaches and businesses need to get more customers. By automating the repetitive tasks, leveraging algorithms, and optimizing communication to better deliver courses, memberships, and 1-on-1 coaching - www.MyCoachAi.com is here to support your growth.

Mayor Johnson ousts the old school board and names a new one. Ben riffs. And on the eve of his participation in the World Series of Poker, Brendan Shiller returns to talk politics and a whole bunch of other things. Including…imposter syndrome, the MAGA 6, and Mayor Johnson's long game. Can the new mayor undo all the damage caused by his predecessors? Is poker a metaphor for politics? How Mayor Daley spent ten years before he got down to the business of selling off the city. And more…See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Matt Ehret joins us for a history lesson about Canada that we don't learn as Canadians, the deep controls in Canadian Politics, The British Empire, Banking, Synthetic Cults, Jesuits, Hope for the middle of Canada, and The Round Table Movement.   We also chat about the demographic crisis, Anomalous Pope and President deaths, Cultural Revolutions, The Inquiry, Shiller, Milner and Rhodes.   In the second half we get deeper into those that pull strings, Club of Rome, the Green Economy, how the Oligarchy keeps messing up, The Consciousness Wildcard, The fundamental truths they get wrong, Putin and the multi polar world, climate gate, Canada's Crown Land, Natural Law,  Israel being used as a pawn all along, and the slow crash into the new system.   See Matt's amazing work and books below!   https://risingtidefoundation.net/ https://canadianpatriot.org/   Matthew is a journalist and co-founder of the Rising Tide Foundation. He is the Editor-in-Chief of Canadian Patriot Review, Senior Fellow at the American University of Moscow and host of The Great Game on Rogue News. He has authored the book series “The Untold History of Canada” and the recently published book series “The Clash of the Two Americas.”     To gain access to the second half of show and our Plus feed for audio and podcast please clink the link http://www.grimericaoutlawed.ca/support.   For second half of video (when applicable and audio) go to our Substack and Subscribe. https://grimericaoutlawed.substack.com/ or to our Locals  https://grimericaoutlawed.locals.com/   Help support the show, because we can't do it without ya. If you value this content with 0 ads, 0 sponsorships, 0 breaks, 0 portals and links to corporate websites, please assist. Many hours of unlimited content for free. Thanks for listening!!   Support the show directly: https://www.patreon.com/grimerica Our Audiobook Site: www.adultbrain.ca Our Audiobook Youtube Channel:  https://www.youtube.com/@adultbrainaudiobookpublishing/videos Grimerica Media Youtube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@grimerica/featured Darren's book www.acanadianshame.ca Check out our next trip/conference/meetup - Contact at the Cabin www.contactatthecabin.com Other affiliated shows: https://www.13questionspodcast.com/ Our New Podcast - 13 Questions www.grimerica.ca The OG Grimerica Show www.Rokfin.com/Grimerica Our channel on free speech Rokfin Join the chat / hangout with a bunch of fellow Grimericans  Https://t.me.grimerica https://www.guilded.gg/chat/b7af7266-771d-427f-978c-872a7962a6c2?messageId=c1e1c7cd-c6e9-4eaf-abc9-e6ec0be89ff3   Get your Magic Mushrooms delivered from: Champignon Magique  Mushroom Spores, Spore Syringes, Best Spore Syringes,Grow Mushrooms Spores Lab Get Psychedelics online Leave a review on iTunes and/or Stitcher: https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/grimerica-outlawed http://www.stitcher.com/podcast/grimerica-outlawed Sign up for our newsletter http://www.grimerica.ca/news SPAM Graham = and send him your synchronicities, feedback, strange experiences and psychedelic trip reports!! graham@grimerica.com InstaGRAM https://www.instagram.com/the_grimerica_show_podcast/   Tweet Darren https://twitter.com/Grimerica  Purchase swag, with partial proceeds donated to the show www.grimerica.ca/swag Send us a postcard or letter http://www.grimerica.ca/contact/ ART Napolean Duheme's site http://www.lostbreadcomic.com/  MUSIC Tru Northperception, Felix's Site sirfelix.bandcamp.com

In this episode Julie shares the holistic health solutions she uses with her clients (and herself). We often think about a coach helping you with your work out. Julie widens the lens and works with her clients on their rest, recovery, sleep, stress, mobility and so much more.   Life Adventure Collective https://lindseyheiserman.com/lifeadventurecollective/ 1-1 Life Coaching https://lindseyheiserman.com/life-coaching/ Speaking https://lindseyheiserman.com/speaking/ Email lindsey@lindseyheiserman.com

Helen Shiller, age 75, was a six-term alderperson in Chicago's poor and oppressed communitieswhere she advocated for radical changes to police misconduct, poverty, and racism. Starting inthe early 1970s, Helen's activism took a page from the Black Panther Party's 10 Point Program.Fifty years later she concluded her book---Daring to Struggle, Daring to Win: Five Decades ofResistance in Chicago's Uptown Community—with the Party's 10 Point Guide to Action. Uponleaving the City Council, Helen teamed up with her lawyer son to create the West Side Centerfor Justice. She loves this stage of her life and finds great joy in metal welding.Connect with Helen:Email: hshiller@gmail.comBook: Daring to Struggle, Daring to Win: Five Decades of Resistance in Chicago's UptownCommunity (2022). See www.womenover70.com > Books By Women.

There are a lot of people who don't want to conform and would rather choose the path of creating and building a business that solves problems. In the economy we're heading into, the money and resources to build and market a business are going to be tight, but that doesn't mean you can't grow a thriving business.    If you're in a financial pinch, how can you still turn your entrepreneurial goals into a reality?   How do we get noticed and grow without thousands of followers or thousands of dollars for ads?    In this episode, entrepreneur and business coach, Arden Shiller talks about her journey, pivoting, and how to push through the challenges of running a business.  Three Things You'll Learn In This Episode    Why we have to tell stories Resonating with and relating to our audience is the key to growth. How do we pack our content with stories that connect with people?    The importance of creating a safe space for your audience Do we put off clients and block business opportunities by being too focused on selling the next offer?     The advantage of having a lower follower count Can you grow a profitable online business without 5,000 or more followers?    Guest Bio Arden Shiller is an entrepreneur, coach, and founder of Let's Grow Girls. Arden teaches business owners how to shift online, grow and scale their online business and also find inner peace and fulfillment. For more information, follow @ardenshiller  on Instagram.      Get Your FREE Copy Of ‘The Private Money Guide'  and ‘Mapping Out The Millionaire Mystery'.    Keep up with us every week on our FREE Live webinars for more conversations like this, and as a BONUS get our newest mini ebook instantly upon signing up! https://moneyschoolrei.com/wednesday-webinar (digital download).   Dive into money, mindset, and motivation videos on my YouTube Channel, and be sure to subscribe so you can be notified of our weekly LIVE streams. Find out about our next weekend workshop, and see what others are saying: https://www.moneyschooltraining.com/registration.

Today I welcome Arden Shiller a Business and Fitness Coach, who shares how we can grow to be satisfied and not grind ourselves to the ground. You can find Arden on Instagram here: @ardenshiller

Brendan Shiller spent 20 or so years on the front lines for criminal justice reform as a lawyer in Chicago. And then he said the hell with it--and moved to Vegas to make his career as a poker player. The son of former Alderwoman Helen Shiller, Brendan makes his Ben Joravsky Show debut, talking about why he needed to take a break from Chicago. Also, how to reduce crime. And how to make money at the card table. Key advice--don't chase the cards. And...a few words about Chicago's casino.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This is our last Episode for 2022—we look forward to being back in mid-January. For this Special Episode, we're joined in conversation with the legendary activist and organizer Helen Shiller at the 57th Street Bookstore in Hyde Park, Chicago. In her new autobiography, Daring to Struggle, Daring to Win, Shiller captures a sense of what it means to engage in decades of justice work from anti-war and international solidarity to anti-racist organizing in Uptown, from the fight for affordable housing and against police violence to a 24-year career as an elected city councilor. With Justice and Freedom on our minds, Helen Shiller exemplifies the potential of an insider/outsider approach to social change. We wish you and your Beloveds a year of joy, justice, peace and love.

The reporters on the New York Times are on a one-day strike. Ben riffs. And former 46th ward Alderwoman Helen Shiller talks about her new book--Daring to Struggle, Daring to Win. It's about her life on the front lines of lefty and independent politics in Chicago since the 1970s. What a great conversation...Harold Washington, Richard Daley, the Jesus People and more. Does she have any regrets? You have to listen to find out...See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Join Helen Shiller and Laura Washington as they discuss Shiller's new biography, Daring to Struggle Daring to Win. Helen Shiller went from radical anti-war activist in Wisconsin, to a member of a collective of white allies of the Black Panther Party in Chicago, to an elected city council person who helped break the back of the racialized opposition to Harold Washington, Chicago's first Black mayor. Shiller participated, when few others did, in the historic fight against the gentrification of a unique economically and racially mixed Chicago community on the Northside. With insight into historic community organizing and political battles in Chicago from the 1970s through 2010, this book details numerous policy fights and conflicts in Chicago during this time, illuminating recurrent political themes and battles that remain relevant to this day. Join us for a limited-capacity in-person book launch event and discussion with Helen Shiller and Laura Washington about the struggle for justice then and now in Chicago. Masks and proof of vaccination are required for those attending in person. For those attending in-person doors will open at 6 PM. The event will also be livestreamed for those unable to attend in-person. Closed captioning will be available for the livestream. Order your copy of Daring to Struggle, Daring to Win here: https://www.haymarketbooks.org/books/1952-daring-to-struggle-daring-to-win ———————————————————————————————— Speakers: Helen Shiller, raised by migrant Jewish parents, was radicalized by the anti-war and civil rights movements. Shiller was in a collective of whites aligned with the Black Panther Party in Chicago. Beginning in 1987, Shiller was a radical Chicago alderperson for 24 years. She is the author of Daring to Struggle, Daring to Win. Laura S. Washington is a Chicago Tribune contributing columnist and political analyst for ABC 7, Chicago's ABC-owned station. She is the former editor and publisher of The Chicago Reporter, served as deputy press secretary to Chicago Mayor Harold Washington. Her work and commentary has been widely featured in the national media, including Time Magazine, the Associated Press, New York Times, NBC Nightly News, MNSBC, PBS News Hour and the BBC. Washington is a frequent lecturer and moderator for local and national audiences. Twitter: @MediaDervish Watch the live event recording: https://youtu.be/03ReVPRb9Bc Buy books from Haymarket: www.haymarketbooks.org Follow us on Soundcloud: soundcloud.com/haymarketbooks

Episode 103: Arden Shiller is an online business coach who helps you grow your online business intentionally & effectively without burning out. She helps you sit with the stillness & embrace the space during the in betweens. Arden grew up outside of Philadelphia, PA. She was a kindergarten teacher for a few years before fully pivoting into an online fitness coach. She was able to grow & scale & sell her fitness company, which is why her goal is to coach other coaches on doing the same! In this episode she is going to share her journey and remind us how decision-making is crucial as you step up as an entrepreneur. Decisions can push you up or down, but you´re not going to know until you make it. You can commit to your growth and take risks even if that moment the decision doesn't make sense. You can step into your power and build your dream life! To connect more with Arden, you can find her: @ardenshiller www.letsgrowgirlsbizcoaching.com Welcome to The Happy Positive Energy Game, where I teach you how you can live your life to the fullest, align your mindset to success, inspire and motivate you and guide you to simple & easy hacks to changing things up in your world that I've learnt from entrepreneurship, mentors and world leaders, as well as the many failures and successes I've had along the way (to save you from making them too!) Did you love this episode? Drop a share on your socials and tag the socials! @thehappypositiveenergygame @iamlukeanning Instagram | Facebook Community | LinkedIn | Featured Podcasts | Work With Me | YouTube