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Register here for the live online event to learn about ‘Unlocking BRRRR Deals in Little Rock on Thursday, July 17th at 8PM Eastern. Keith discusses the competitive nature of short-term rentals (STRs) and the need for hosts to offer luxury amenities to attract guests. Long time investing pro, Alex, joins us to cover the BRRRR strategy in Little Rock, Arkansas, an investor-advantaged market, emphasizing its low property taxes and stable cash flow. They explain the BRRRR process, including: buying, renovating, renting, refinancing, and repeating.  The strategy allows investors to scale their portfolios with minimal initial capital, offering a 0% management fee in year one and 4% in year two.  Resources: Register here for the live online event to learn about ‘Unlocking BRRRR Deals in Little Rock on Thursday, July 17th at 8PM Eastern. Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/561 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, anymore when you own short term rentals like Airbnbs and vrbos, you are in an all out arms race competing to provide amenities like never before. Then what happens when you take the popular burr real estate strategy and overlay it with one of the most investor advantaged markets in all of America. It's a lucrative opportunity. You'll see how and why today on get rich education.    Keith Weinhold  0:32   Mid south home buyers, I mean, they're total pros, with over two decades as the nation's highest rated turnkey provider, their empathetic property managers use your ROI as their North Star. So it's no wonder that smart investors just keep lining up to get their completely renovated income properties like it's the newest iPhone. They're headquartered in Memphis and have globally attractive cash flows, an A plus rating with the Better Business Bureau, and now over 5000 houses renovated their zero markup on maintenance. Let that sink in, and they average a 98.9% occupancy rate, while their average renter stays more than three and a half years. Every home they offer has brand new components, a bumper to bumper, one year warranty, new 30 year roofs. And wait for it, a high quality renter. Remember that part and in an astounding price range, 100 to 180k I've personally toured their office and their properties in person in Memphis. Get to know mid south enjoy cash flow from day one. Start yourself right now at mid southhomebuyers.com that's mid southhomebuyers.com   Speaker 1  1:58   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  2:14   Welcome to GRE from North Conway, New Hampshire to North port, Florida and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and this is get rich education, happy July, the second half of the year. And my favorite month of the year is your Airbnb fancy enough, because anymore STRS short term rentals have gotten so competitive that hosts treat their properties like white lotus level hotels. Now, STRS were never passive, but they become even less so it is active income. Once upon a time, Airbnb hosts could just sort of drop a few colorful throw pillows on their fold out couch and make a killing. But no more those days are so far gone. The STR game has changed drastically. I mean, you used to be able to list a basic home with generic furniture that you got at Costco, minimal amenities, no Wi Fi, and still get it booked, but today, it will sit empty unless you offer more than just a place to sleep. You have to build an experience for Airbnb guests. Now, increasingly, hosts are doing things like adding outdoor kitchens, arcade machines, putting greens, even basketball. And now, though these upgrades do cost a lot up front, they can pay off. These amenity types can double your nightly rate, but they come with more responsibility and more to maintain. I mean, more guests are expecting a flawless experience. The trend is that Airbnbs are becoming full scale hospitality operations, and if you don't treat it like one, you're going to fall behind. So simply having a nice house that just no longer cuts it, running a short term rental today is nothing like it was even two or three years ago. You used to be able to stand out with a decent bed and colorful throw prolos, but now guests are basically comparing your place to boutique hotels. Hosts are deeply investing in design, forward furniture, layered lighting and featuring spaces that some market as what they call moments like cozy reading corners in these luxurious bathroom setups, adding things like welcome guides and even complete brand identities with a proper. Name and even a logo and a story to give the place some personality, even writing up a history for your property, even if it's not that historic. Now, these sorts of tactics, they actually do, seem to work. Guests will give you more bookings, better reviews, and guests even share the space on social media like it's somewhat of a lifestyle destination now sometimes STR hosts, they team with these other platforms to add welcome champagne in ice buckets on site, sommeliers, private chefs, daily, housekeeping on demand. 24/7 textable concierges, heated plunge pools and other amenities through you partnering with some of these platforms and these upgrades don't come cheap. The publication called the playbook, they featured an STR in Sag Harbor, New York, where the property owner invested $85,000 into overhauling the landscaping and adding a James Turrell Inspired LED light installation. But overall, these improvements boost rental revenue by an average of 40% over what the property was collecting previously. All right, so this is a case study now, though, this STR trend of offering deep hospitality and luxury amenities has turned into more of a job and less about passive income. You know, really, this is free market capitalism, because this is competition to see who can provide the best service at the lowest price, but that's what it is. So this is making real estate less of a good and more of a service. Short term rentals soaring supply, day rate compression and AI driven pricing tools. That means that the just this all nice house with good photos thing that no longer cuts it. It is an amenities arms race now, and of course, this is a national trend. It doesn't mean that it's happening absolutely everywhere. In some places, hosts are able to charm guests simply with something like a freshly baked loaf of banana bread, but the consensus is whether they spend a little or a lot, Airbnb hosts unanimously say that they've got to work harder in order to keep guests happy. It's become more of a business and less of a side hustle than it used to be. You've got more hosts leaning into higher upfront investments because they know guests will pay for a sort of turnkey, Instagrammable experience. And this really is a classic early adopter issue, just like a lot of things, Airbnb launched in 2007 by the way, so this sort of first wave of Airbnb hosts back around 2012 to 2015 they were riding a blue ocean back then. There was virtually no competition. There weren't any standards, and there were plenty of bookings, and that made a lot of hosts pretty fat and happy. But that's not where we are now, really. The bottom line is that in many markets, short term rentals have transitioned from partial passivity to all out hospitality. That's the Airbnb arms race. The average Airbnb nightly rate for North America. Do you care to venture a guess at the average nightly rate? It is approximately $216 per night, and that right there is up 26% from 2020 so it is not up as much as house prices over that five year period from 2020 really, the Airbnb rate is up about as much as the long term rental rate.    Keith Weinhold  8:58   While we're talking numbers a quarter recently ended. Let's hit on our asset class rundown. What's happened to home prices in the past year? Well, when you aggregate all these sources, Zillow, Freddie, Mac case, Shiller, FHFA, in totality, home prices are up 2% single family rents are up 3% apartment rates are down 1% due to their oversupply. The 30 year mortgage rate was 6.9% a year ago, and it's 6.8 now. CPI inflation is 2.4% expressed in year to date terms. Now the SP5 100 is up 5% in the first half of this year, ending near 6200 the dollar is down. That means that it takes more of them to buy gold, which is over $3,300 an ounce, gold is up 27% just from the start of this year, and the oil price is still depressed in the 60s. Per dollar for a barrel, Bitcoin still strong, ending the quarter at 106kthat's your asset class rundown, which we do about quarterly.    Keith Weinhold  9:57   Hey, I really enjoyed meetingside. Of you on this year's terrific real estate guys Investor Summit at sea was concluded about a week ago. It was two days on land in Miami, followed by a week of conferences and fun aboard a Caribbean cruise ship. I really got to meet you and get to know you, because we had nine days together, and as one of the faculty members, I hosted a table at dinner every night, and each night the attendees rotated around to my table, so I got to meet a lot of you and really get to know you, and you got to know me. Yeah, it was as interesting for me to meet you in person, perhaps, as it was for you to meet me, because I like to hear what you're doing in real estate, investing, in everything else. I gave a main stage presentation that was almost an hour of all me, all GRE and also served on five different panel discussions. Oh, it's such a unique event. Get this, I was kind of dressed up to give my main stage presentation, which so many of you, by the way, told me afterwards, that that was your favorite presentation of them all, all week long, because each faculty member made a main stage presentation. But what I want to tell you is, just a few hours after I presented, on the cruise ship, I was shirtless in the water throwing a football around at the beach in St Thomas Virgin Islands. What an event. Fantastic to meet a number of you in person. So far today, I hope what I've shared with you has been informative. Next. It's something informative and really actionable that you can make lucrative that's next. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education.    Keith Weinhold  11:45   The same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your pre qual and even chat with President Caeli Ridge personally, while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lendinggroup.com. That's Ridge lendinggroup.com.    Russell Gray  12:16   You know what's crazy your bank is getting rich off of you, the average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns, and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back, no weird lock ups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing, check it out. Text family to 66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund again. Text family to 66866.   Russell Gray  13:30   Hi. This is Russell Gray, co host of real estate guys radio show, and you're listening to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream. You Keith,   Keith Weinhold  13:38   welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, we're talking to a guest not only about an investor advantaged market, but when you overlay a certain strategy with it, this can be highly lucrative for investor returns, and we're with a long time investing pro Alex, welcome onto the show.    Alex Craig  14:04   Hi Keith, thank you.    Keith Weinhold  14:05   Well talking about top US cashflowing market, let's get right to it. Tell us about yours.   Alex Craig  14:11   Little Rock, Arkansas. It's a market that we've been in since 2012. I personally invest there. I've got about 75 doors of multi family, single family. And the reason why it works is just cash flow. Over the years, we've had investors from around the country that have owned portfolios where maybe they're somewhere in Phoenix or Dallas, where they're kind of speculating. This is not a speculation market, and that's why it works for myself. It's consistent. It's very linear, and linear is a word that we use a lot to describe. And if you're going to be a cash flow investor, and that's why I'm in it, it's you want a linear market. You don't want ups or downs, and then you want to make sure it's a growing market too. And Little Rock checks all the boxes of what you would want in a stable cash flow environment market.   Keith Weinhold  14:57   And I think a lot of our investor listeners are. Already pretty keen on that. You get a high ratio of rent income to purchase price. You have laws that heavily favor landlords over tenants. But Alex, in today's environment, people are more conscious about rising operating expenses and higher mortgage expenses, and that's really one advantage that Arkansas can give right now, is with those low property taxes   Alex Craig  15:20   Keith,it's so interesting you mentioned that because I did have a conversation with a client of ours that had a property in another market that he had mentioned how his property taxes had gone up and gone up substantially, which that's to expect. I mean, after COVID, there was a lot of markets saw a huge boost, especially with markets that saw hedge funds come in. Hedge Funds, I believe, ruined a lot of markets, raised the prices. And another reason I like Little Rock, it flies under the radar. You think is Little Rock is a small market, but it's really not. It's, I mean, the population of the city is 250,000 but the metro area, which is a 50 mile radius around Little Rock, is much bigger. And the entire, not only the entire market, metro area, feeds off little rock, really, the entire state does too. But that being said, because it's floating under the radar, the property tax have remained low. They've taken a little bit of bump over the years, because the values steadily go up, but they started low anyway. So with operating costs of insurance, insurance has gone up for a lot of for my own properties in other markets, it's going up, and it's going up in Little Rock too. I mean, it's just the name of insurance, but property taxes have remained low. They've always been low, and that's really a big help as to why this market works for us.   Keith Weinhold  16:30   Talking about flying under the radar, you're talking about, therefore evading a lot of that hedge fund money. Tell us more about the market and some of those anchors and drivers.   Alex Craig  16:40   It's a blue collar town. You've got logistics. Is a market, or is a segment of the industry that has really come on strong over the last few years, Amazon has really put a footprint in the market. Healthcare is a huge, huge market, like I mentioned earlier, not only does the region feed off the direct to the entire state, it's the hub of healthcare for the entire state of Arkansas, of course, it's government. Government provides a lot of jobs. The good thing about government jobs is they're maybe not on a national level anymore, but on a local, state level, they're very it's hard to get let go from a government job, unless now, not on a federal level, but it's very steady, so a lot of steady blue collar jobs, and that's what you want for a strong resident base, especially in the type of properties and 1000 to $1,200 price range, you want those blue collar study growing jobs.   Keith Weinhold  17:31   Yes, you do have those there. It's funny. I'm smiling a bit because I used to be a state government employee, and there's just no way that they ever would have fired me. I was so protective I had to quit in order for them to have to replace me at that job. I'm wondering about the new supply that's come on, Alex, because a number of markets have added supply. I know, for example, that Redfin reports that little rock median home price appreciation is up 7.3% year over year, and with the dynamics going on in the market recently, that typically tells us that there hasn't been that much new supply added. Is that what's going on there?   Alex Craig  18:11   No, there hasn't been a lot of new supply. I just think with little rock and every other market, the mortgage rates have gone up. Home ownership is down during COVID. It was really hard to get an investment property. For what we did, sending out our list every week. It was basically send out our properties, people hitting send and not even knowing what they were reserving. Rates were just low, right? Everybody's jumping in. It was hard to get inventory. So now what we have is, you know, higher rates that scares some people off. It pushes some people out on the market, but it also creates opportunity. I feel like this is the easiest time I've been investing in real estate since 2007 that was the foreclosure crisis, Great Recession, and it was a lot of foreclosures on the market, and that's how I built a big chunk of my portfolio. But now it's just a matter of there's not as many people in it. So for us, there's just more acquisitions for us to go out and get. There's still distressed homes on the market where individuals don't want to hire a realtor, they just want all cash offers. They're ready to get rid of them, and that's where we step in. And without as much competition like I said, we kind of fly under the radar. I feel it creates more just supply inventory for us and for me as an investor, but also for our clients too   Keith Weinhold  19:23   with that in mind, and again, a lot of our audience is already on board, knowing that little rock in Arkansas is a good cash flow market with stable, long term fundamentals, but in order to make it more profitable, you've overlaid it with a certain strategy there in Little Rock. Tell us about that.    Alex Craig  19:45   So the BRRRR strategy, yes, it's able to work now because there's not as many buyers in the market. So basically, the way the burrs strategy works is we acquire a property. I'm just going to use very round, simple numbers for simple math makes it easier on me   Keith Weinhold  19:58   and we're talking the BRRRR. Strategy that's buy, renovate, rent, refinance, and repeat. Those are the five investor steps.   Alex Craig  20:07   correct. And so that's what we do, is we buy. Let's just say the B. Let's take the B, for example, we buy a home, and we buy it for 60,000 where I'm just talking like if I own the home, and then I put $20,000 into the deal. So now I'm all into it for 80,000 and you have to remember, there's some in between, cost of closing costs. I'm just talking just very general strategy. You buy it for 60, you put 20 into it, and all of a sudden you're in it for 80, and the value comes back at 100 so you're in it for 80% of the after repair value. Most Fannie Mae lenders will do 75% so if you purchase a house outright, you put 20% down, but if you are doing a refinance, you're able they'll do it at 75% so instead of buying a home and putting it down payment upfront, you're using equity in the deal. And that's what the burst strategy is, buy renovate. So we buy it, we renovate it, we refinance it, we rent it out, and then you repeat it. So it allows for investors to scale their portfolios quicker and stretch their money a little bit further. So if you've got, I've got $50,000 and I want to invest in real estate, if you purchase a home, you're bound by the down payment. Once you put that down payment, it's, I wouldn't call it sunk cost, but that money's gone for reinvesting. The burr model allows you to stretch that money a little bit further. Now, like I said, I gave pretty basic numbers to the deal, but that's what you're going for. Some equity in the deal, and that's what we're able to provide for ourselves and for our clients.   Keith Weinhold  21:38   So let's review that numbers on a little rock burp, making a $60,000 purchase with a pre renovated property. Then the investor puts another 20k into it for the renovation. So now they're all in for 80k and they get a 100k appraisal on that property, and then they can borrow, say, 75% of that there, that is the refi portion, the fourth letter of the BRRRR acronym. So therefore they've got 80k into it, and they got 75k back, meaning they would only have 5k into it, but maybe another 5k for closing costs, and now they only have 10k in to a 100k property. That's the appeal. That's what we're talking about here with the BRRRR   Alex Craig  22:22   strategy. I mean, you're exactly right. And as I mentioned, I use some really basic numbers, because when you're using, you know, 100,060 and 20 makes them very basic. It's pretty hard to find out a deal worth 100,000 these days, even when we started in the industry, 100,000 was a pretty cheap after pair value. Probably the mean value of the homes that we're dealing in is probably about 140 to 140 to 160 but same principle, based on those same logic that what we just talked about, I wouldn't say, you know, five or 10k out of pocket, but if you're talking about purchasing a deal with 25% down versus doing a bur you're probably going to be in it at 15% Out of pocket costs 10 to 15% as opposed to putting a down payment of 25% but the big thing is, you're getting money back, and you're not putting as much so just it's great for scale. I don't know if you'll talk about DSCR lending very much on your show, but that's something that a lot of our clients, and that does 80% so we have a lot of clients going that route now too.   Keith Weinhold  23:21   Okay, so you could do 80% with debt service coverage ratio loans, but to drop back in our example, to help be clear, the investor has 80k of their own skin in the game into the property, 60k for the purchase, 20k for the renovation, even though they only have 80k in it appraises for 100k that ARV, that after repair value. Why is the after repair value 100k when you only have 80k into it? Why is it more?   Alex Craig  23:49   that's based off comparable sales? So when you're in it at 80, and you're going to refinance it through a lender, they're going to send an appraiser out, and appraiser is going to pull comparable sales within that neighborhood. So just because you're in an 80 the appraiser is going to go pull three comps, very similar to that home. So if we're selling a three bedroom one bath, they're going to pull three comps at a three bedroom one bath, relatively the same size look, if it's got a carport, they're going to try to find three houses with the carport. So in theory, that's what they're doing. They're pulling comparable sales and developing new value based on recent sales.   Keith Weinhold  24:23   So it's that you have this knowledge to buy in neighborhoods and buy in certain sub markets, where, when you know that capital is added and renovations are made and a rehab period that they do tend to appraise for that value based on the comparables that are already there.   Alex Craig  24:40   Yeah. I mean, if we were to take the same house at 60,000 and didn't do any work, he would then say, well, you've got some comparables here versus 100 but you could never sell this home for 100 these are the things you have to do, and that's what we do during the first R the renovate of the acronym is to renovate the home to the condition that the. Appraisers feel that are comparable for the neighborhood, and that's a real important part, is comparable to the neighborhood. We could go in and put in a Jacuzzi tub and grain of countertops. We actually, we do put a lot of grain in, because we get it so cheap. But you could go in and fix it up to the nines, but it's not going to appraise for any more than the others, because the appraiser would say, we over improved it. So we improve it to what we know, what the kind of the standard for the neighborhood? Because you could over improve these things for sure and not get that return on that investment.   Keith Weinhold  25:28   That is a great answer. There is a specific improvement target that you know that needs to be hit. Tell us more about this burr process, because to an out of area investor, it can sound pretty intimidating if they had to manage contractors remotely themselves,   Alex Craig  25:43   there definitely is a need to have a team on the ground that you trust, that you feel comfortable with, and that's what we've done. I've been doing it in multiple markets for myself since 2007 and we built into a business model in 2010 like I said, expanded Little Rock in 2012 and we've been doing this for 15 years now for other investors. So we've got that name and that reputation of taking care of our investors, that's the important part. And we do see a lot of investors get burned, because you can find a realtor to go to help you find deals, but usually the realtor relationship is thesis to end. It's okay, I found you a deal, but then there's so many other things afterwards, and the renovations, where I see so many people get burned, and you know, we manage approximately 1200 homes between two markets, and that's where I see when property owners come to us, they've been burned the most. It's like they've paid somebody $50,000 they didn't finish the job, they didn't do what they say they're going to do. So the renovation that we're the team on the ground, we've got a in House Project Manager, we've got a network of subcontractors. We tend to act as the contractor, subbing things out. We've got in house property management. We've got all the tools, but it's really between both. In the markets in which I operate. I've got about 30 employees within property management, renovations, acquisitions, so the team on the ground is and then the back in the property management part is the long, ongoing accountability. So if something doesn't work out, that's the way we said it. If we say it's going to rent for 1200 and we rent it out for 900 Well, we really got a big egg on our face. You do a few of those, and that's how you don't stay in business anymore. And there's, and I like to say, about every five years the market corrects itself into getting the wrong players out of the business. COVID was super easy, easy to find deals, easy to sell deals. But once the market changed and it became a little more competitive and rates rose, that's the people that have been around for the long time, been in it for the long haul, that stick around. They've got the established business model and their reputation. So every five years, a good correction in the market eliminates those bad players.   Keith Weinhold  27:47   So you have this vetted, proven in play system that investors can get into besides just identifying the property, it comes with that system, those contractors or that investor just has one point of contact with you there for updates on the renovation.   Alex Craig  28:03   Yeah. I mean, I feel like we know these neighborhoods. I like I feel we know these neighborhoods like the back of our hand. We've been investing in them for a decade plus, and we know the areas you want to be in, the areas you don't want to be in. And we have a lot of investors will call us either they already own the property or they're a current client, and they'll say, Hey, I could get this deal for 30,000 and it's worth 100 and I'm like, Well, that sounds too good to be true, especially if it's on the open market. If it was that good of a deal, it's already gone. We just know the market, where to be. We know what to pay. We could, pretty much just through our experience, identify a house we know probably within about five to 10% before we even dive into comparable sales of what it's worth. We could walk through a house within probably about three to five minutes and peg the renovation costs probably within about 10% now we still order an inspection, and that's where we uncover the things that we can't see, that maybe there's a bunch of rotted out joist or a foundation problem that we didn't see. So, but there's things aside we could walk through and we pretty much know, okay, it needs a roof that's 7000 it needs an air conditioner that's six flooring, two. So that's the expertise that we bring and like. So then the management part of it, on the back end, that kind of ties it all together with accountability.   Keith Weinhold  29:22   And I know that your typical project renovation cost tends to be about 25k just for simplicity, we use 20k in that example, and your completion times are shorter than others that have inexperienced crews. So tell us about that typical renovation time. Alex.   Alex Craig  29:39   every day we're accomplishing 500 so 25,000 divided by 500 comes to 50 days, 50 days. So we'll knock that out in about 50 days. And we just have a large network of subcontractors that we've been working with for years. If you weren't in the business, I think that'd be really hard to accomplish, and there's just a lot that. Goes into it. I mean, the renovating the homes, it's the once, it's the worst, it's the hardest thing that we do. For sure, it's definitely the most scheduling, but it's where, if you don't know what you're doing, a great deal turns into, how do I get out of this?   Keith Weinhold  30:15   Right, absolutely. Now, in our example, we used where an investor puts 60k into it for the purchase to start with, because I see the burst strategy is a good strategy. If someone doesn't have a lot of capital, like they would for maybe a new build property, can one even finance that initial purchase amount?   Alex Craig  30:35   Yeah, so private lending. So that's the part that makes if you've only got 50 grand to facilitate this entire process, and you want to try to repeat it as many times as you can. 50,000 would not be enough just to pay cash. So yes, we have private lending. We set that up. Sometimes we lend it ourselves. Sometimes we outsource it to some of our strategic partners, but we'll lend the money to buy and renovate the home. A typical what that loan would look like it's about 3.3 points of loan origination. So if you've got an $80,000 loan, that's $2,400 most lenders do require for you to bring that up front, and now you're in it for an $80,000 loan at 12% which, five years ago, that sounded crazy to borrow at 12% but with for private lending, that's not bad at all, especially you want to get in and out of it quickly. So if we're renovating the home, and you know, 50 days, if you're already pre approved with your lender, and they have all your documents by the time we finish renovating the home, the appraisals lined up, and you could be in and out of these private loans in about 90 days. That love that depends on the lending side, that you're giving the lender what they need. But ideally you want to be in these things about 90 to 120 days. So $80,000 loan at 12% that $800 a month. So if you're in it for 90 days, 800 times 320, 700 plus the loan origination fee. But that's how you do it. That's the you're just borrowing money to finance the acquisition, the rehab and the refinance   Keith Weinhold  32:03   that is an option for you if you don't have the cash here to come in with these burr strategy properties. Alex, tell us more about it. Really, what I would like to know is, when an investor gets their appraisal, their after repair value, how many want to sell it for a profit, and how many want to hold it with a tenant for long term income   Alex Craig  32:26   so far, zero. Want to sell it for a profit. If you're all in it for add and then you're selling for 100 once you sell it, there are other fees involved. You got to hire a realtor. Right now is a great time to hold it's a slow real estate market. I don't think Little Rock from an aspect, is where home ownership is down. I think that's a nationwide thing. So I think if you're going into this, you certainly want to look at it from perspective. This is a buy and hold. I don't think this is the best market to get into to buy something. Flip it with a in the example, we use a $20,000 margin with buyer concessions, realtor commissions. That's a lot of work involved. And let's just say it did work out. You sold it for 100 but you had to pay 2% closing in an agent fee, and you got some holding cost. Let's just say you netted 8000 that might be good for a six month return, but I feel like there's a lot of risk. I feel like our job as what we do for our clients, is to minimize risk. So someone came and said, Hey, I want to flip it. I would say, Well, I don't think it's the best market for it right now. I think you want to get into this buy and hold.   Keith Weinhold  33:29   Yes, Alex has been doing this for a long time, and he's a specific expert right there in that local market. Buy and hold is a strategy that most likely makes sense. And he also strongly recommends pay cash if possible, instead of using that 12% short term private lending option, like he mentioned before, because that can cut out about four to 5k worth of transactional cost. And then if you do buy and hold what Alex and his company offer there in Little Rock is essentially a cash flow boost, 0% management fee in year one and only 4% in year two. So that gives you some extra cash flow runway as well. And Alex, before I ask you if you have any last thoughts, I want to announce to you the audience, that we have a live event virtually next week, on July 17, at 8pm eastern for Little Rock BRRRRproperties that Alex is CO hosting with our investment coach, Naresh, where you can find these bird deals in this cash flowing market. In Little Rock you'll see actual bird deals recently completed with full breakdowns of their purchase prices, sort of these case studies, where you can see some real numbers and what the rehab budgets are and what the actual timelines were, and what the refi outcomes were like, and explore BRRRR ready properties that are currently available to own, if you so choose, on this upcoming live event that you can attend from the comfort of your own home. Learn the full process, from acquisition to renovation to property management to the financing of them, and again, everything is all handled by local experts, so that you don't have to live with the nightmare of remotely managing contractors, which I couldn't imagine doing. So whether you're a first time investor or you're scaling your portfolio, this is your chance to get boots on the ground, insight and a proven road map to burr success and really one of the most accessible markets in the country. Again, Alex here is CO hosting the event along with GRE investment coach, Naresh Vissa. It is a free, live virtual event again next week, Thursday, July 17, at 8pm Eastern. Sign up is open now at gre webinars.com it ought to be great. Alex, teaming with local experts like you has been of real benefit to our audience. Do you have any last thoughts about either Little Rock or burrs or the events that you're going to co host with our audience next week?   Alex Craig  35:57   So here's my last thought, as you were, you know, kind of concluding and I was reviewing what we had talked about. And one of the questions we get sometimes it's a fair question. It's like, well, if this is such a great deal, why don't you keep all the deals? So we hear that from time to time, and the simple answer is, we do. We do keep a lot of deals, and we're buying more real estate now, like I said, I feel like it's the easiest time to get into real estate. So we do, we do keep a lot. We're building a very large portfolio right now, but the house flipping to investors is just another business model that we have. And Property Management too. And we love property management, and we love building investor relationships. We've had a lot of investors we've had been with us since day one that we've developed really tight relationships with. So yes, we do keep a lot of the properties, and we sell properties too, and we and helps us build our management company, which you don't hear too many people say this, but we actually love property management. That's a hard thing to love, but we actually like it.   Keith Weinhold  36:54   That is more weird than Tom wheelwright loving taxes, perhaps, but Right. But I want to deal with somebody that really loves what they're doing, especially when they're protecting our asset and probably more importantly, when it comes to property management, protecting our time. So that's right, Alex, well, our viewers and listeners are really looking forward to it next week, again, that live event Thursday, July 17, at 8pm Eastern is something that you can sign up for now at grewebinars.com. Alex, we're looking forward to it next week.   Alex Craig  37:27   Bye, Keith, thank you.   Keith Weinhold  37:34   Oh yeah. Terrific overview on why the burr strategy can be so profitable. And our event next week. Now, when you rent your primary residence, which you would typically do in a high cost area, and then you own rental property elsewhere, typically a low cost area, do you know what that's called? Yeah, there is a name for that. Last week we spoke to two listener guests in California that are doing just that. That is called rentvesting. And yes, Little Rock is surely a popular low cost market for rentvesting. I have been on the ground myself in Little Rock with Alex's associate to do an on the ground tour of properties. There you want to tap into a system where you've got the guiding hand of both experience and belief. That's what you're doing here. As like he said, Alex personally owns 75 doors there. That is belief, and he's been doing this for out of area investors for 15 years. That's the experience part real proof of concept at next week's event, you'll be introduced to this same system where you can lean on their team for acquisition, renovation and management. Little Rock has an MSA population of about 770,000 but I think more importantly today, savvy investors are conscientious of keeping their expenses down, and for good reason, since they've been up all over the place. Now, the purchase price is 140 to 160k for these BRRRR optimized single family rentals. Remember that we used 100k just for ease of an example there, usually when you buy income property, you're really in at close to 25% of the purchase price when you add up the down payment and closing costs, but this way, you're in for just about half of that at 10 to 15% another low expense is that property tax, statewide, Arkansas Property Tax is just 610 of 1% so that's half the national average. And then your management expense is definitely going to be low for the first two years, because it is 0% in year one and 4% in year two. And these are properties that you can actually be pretty proud of. You'll learn more about this. Scope of work with a renovation on the webinar, often granite countertops in the kitchen is a live, remote event. So this means that you can have any of your questions answered in real time. Should you have them? As you can imagine, demand is high for these properties, and this is a chance to get connected directly with the team that makes it happen. We might never get Alex on an event like this again, and is co hosted with our GRE investment coach, Naresh. It's next week. It's free, Thursday, July 17, at 8pm Eastern, 5pm Pacific. Sign up now, or your future self might not be able to forgive yourself. You can do that now at grewebinars.com Until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 3  40:56   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  41:19   You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access and it's got pay walls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. It's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now just text. GRE to 66866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text, gre to 66866   Keith Weinhold  42:35   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com.

Don and Tom dive into the human obsession with prediction—especially in finance—and why models fail us more than they help. They dissect the CAPE ratio, Fama vs. Shiller, and why “knowing” the market is a fool's errand. Listeners also get lessons on ETF pricing myths, market cap misunderstandings, SEP Roth IRAs (spoiler: they're basically unicorns), and whether dad deserves a gift or just more responsibilities. 0:04 We crave certainty—even though our money brains are terrible at prediction. 1:01 Wall Street's models exist to soothe our fear of the unknown. 1:34 “All models are wrong, but some are useful” — CAPE ratio vs. the real world. 2:39 Shiller vs. Fama: You can't time the market, even with a Nobel. 4:51 Why diversification, risk-based equity premiums, and low fees beat predictions. 5:24 Models work… until they don't (hello, Phillips Curve). 7:02 Why the inflation-unemployment link broke after 2000: China changed the game. 8:26 Let's admit it: You cannot accurately and consistently predict the future. 9:14 Call from Catherine: Why Schwab ETF prices are “low” (spoiler: stock splits). 11:31 Price per share means nothing. Market cap is what matters. 13:04 Berkshire never split its stock—why it's $731K a share. 14:24 Apple vs. Berkshire vs. Microsoft: Market cap is the real metric. 16:32 Why the Dow is dumb (and would be even dumber with Berkshire in it). 17:49 Listener Q: Where to park $450K before a home purchase? (Hint: not bonds.) 18:29 High-yield savings accounts are still the best move. 19:53 Father's Day preview: Don rants about dumb gifts and ungrateful kids. 21:19 Kiplinger's list: 5 ways dads can teach money lessons (cue sarcasm). 24:06 Allowances, budgeting, and tax talks with kids—realistic or fantasy? 25:28 Roth IRAs and investing lessons for teens: what actually works. 27:45 Why teaching kids to pick stocks is a dangerous myth. 29:38 “Graduation fund” idea: simple global ETFs like AVGE or DFAW. 30:43 Yes, your kids might move back in. Yes, it's happening again. 32:13 Listener Q: Can you open a Roth SEP IRA? (Short answer: not really yet.) 33:54 One firm offers it… but it'll cost you $500/year and it's shady. 35:20 Final caller: Are there any annuities we do like? (Answer: the shortest show ever.) 36:34 Program note: Tom gone for 2 weeks, Don wants your calls (or sympathy). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Or on the types of prioritization, their strengths, pitfalls, and how EA should balance them The cause prioritization landscape in EA is changing. Prominent groups have shut down, others have been founded, and everyone is trying to figure out how to prepare for AI. This is the first in a series of posts examining the state of cause prioritization and proposing strategies for moving forward. Executive Summary Performing prioritization work has been one of the main tasks, and arguably achievements, of EA. We highlight three types of prioritization: Cause Prioritization, Within-Cause (Intervention) Prioritization, and Cross-Cause (Intervention) Prioritization. We ask how much of EA prioritization work falls in each of these categories: Our estimates suggest that, for the organizations we investigated, the current split is 89% within-cause work, 2% cross-cause, and 9% cause prioritization. We then explore strengths and potential pitfalls of each level: Cause [...] ---Outline:(00:37) Executive Summary(03:09) Introduction: Why prioritize? Have we got it right?(05:18) The types of prioritization(06:54) A snapshot of EA(16:45) The Types of Prioritization Evaluated(16:57) Cause Prioritization(20:56) Within-Cause Prioritization(25:12) Cross-Cause Prioritization(30:07) Summary Table(30:53) What factors should push us towards one or another?(37:27) Possible Next Steps(39:44) Conclusion(40:58) Acknowledgements(41:01) en-US-AvaMultilingualNeural__ Modern geometric logo design with text RETHINK PRIORITIES(41:55) Appendix: Strengths and Pitfalls of Each Type(42:07) Within-Cause Prioritization Strengths(42:12) Decision-Making Support(42:37) Comparability of Outputs(44:18) Disciplinarity Advantages(45:45) Responsiveness to Evidence(46:48) Movement Building(48:06) Within-Cause Prioritization Weaknesses and Potential Pitfalls(48:12) Responsiveness to Evidence(50:54) Decision-Making Support(52:45) Cross-Cause Prioritization Strengths:(53:06) Decision-Making Support(54:49) Responsiveness to Evidence(56:08) Movement Building(56:22) Comparability of Outputs(56:45) Decision-Making Support(57:14) Cross-Cause Prioritization Weaknesses and Potential Pitfalls(57:20) Comparability of Outputs(58:01) Disciplinarity Advantages(58:41) Movement Building(59:09) Decision-Making Support(01:00:27) Cause Prioritization Strengths(01:00:32) Decision-Making Support(01:02:01) Responsiveness to Evidence(01:02:52) Movement Building(01:03:28) Cause Prioritization Weaknesses and Potential Pitfalls(01:04:28) Decision-Making Support(01:06:08) Responsiveness to EvidenceThe original text contained 23 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: April 16th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZPdZv8sHuYndD8xhJ/doing-prioritization-better-2 --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:

【節目】最近很紅的名詞均值回歸，就好像看準均值會回歸，好像可以預測未來走勢一定會怎麼變化?也出現了保證OOO某某標的比XXX贏的說法。但到底均值回歸這個看法，有沒有什麼學理上的反面研究?這次來討論看看。那該不該用 CAPE 或均值回歸做決策?這次也來研究看看。 《苦盡柑來遇見你》最近很紅的韓劇，英文劇名：「When Life Gives You Tangerines」改編自諺語：「When life gives you lemons, make lemonade」。將“lemons”換成濟州特產“tangerines（橘子）”，象徵轉化困境、正向面對人生。如果你相信均值回歸，那在低於均值的情況下，建倉位，是不是就會等到有一天，苦盡柑來遇見你?回歸到趨勢線之上? 大綱 1.均值回歸的基本概念與迷思 2.光學幻覺：學術對均值回歸的質疑 3.市場平均值會變動的原因 4.CAPE指標的定義與用途 5.CAPE與傳統本益比的差異 6.CAPE歷史高點與市場崩盤的對照 7.使用CAPE的限制與批評聲音 8.CAPE與均值回歸的實務應用建議 9.估值指標的正確使用心法 10.建立穩健投資系統的關鍵思維 關鍵字 #均值回歸 #CAPE #估值指標 #光學幻覺 #資產配置 #風險雷達 #本益比 #Shiller #市場均值 #投資紀律 第541集，2025/05/01錄製 #AwesomeMoney #威利研究室 用研究改變你的財商視野 節目連結： YouTube 搜尋: 威利財經角 Podcast 搜尋: Awesome_Money 收看頻道會員節目: https://cutt.ly/HeRTJFB2 加入頻道會員: https://cutt.ly/zwTJf5e0 訂閱方格子 (文稿、程式範例): https://vocus.cc/willy03/home 威利投資生活事 Line 社群: https://forms.gle/CabjyDhux35utmyU9 免費電子報訂閱: https://cutt.ly/lwOV4s2Q 使用電子報原因: https://cutt.ly/kwOV4U8H 收聽|看文章|互動社群|目錄: https://cutt.ly/AwesomeMoney －－－－以下訊息由 SoundOn 動態廣告贊助商提供－－－－ 高雄美術特區3-4房全新落成，《惟美術》輕軌C22站散步即到家，近鄰青海商圈，卡位明星學區，徜徉萬坪綠海。 住近美術館，擁抱優雅日常，盡現驕傲風範！美術東四路29號 07-553-3838 https://sofm.pse.is/7krcxg -- 宏國德霖科技大學，有豐富獎學金就學補助、多元實習機會，讓你畢業即就業，實踐創業夢想人生！ 三大學院：餐旅學院、不動產學院及工程學院，緊密合作旗下凱撒飯店連鎖及宏國建設集團，宏國德霖科技大學是你最佳選擇！ https://sofm.pse.is/7kq64u -- Hosting provided by SoundOn

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comI don't normally put out market commentary on a Sunday, especially on a Sunday evening, but the events of last week were so extraordinary I feel I have to.We are in full-on crash mode, it seems. The price action reminds me of the Covid panic or even 2008. It almost doesn't matter what you own. Portfolios around the world have been battered.The declines in the final two days of last week, since so-called “Liberation Day”, when President Trump announced his tariffs, are roughly as follows:* Bitcoin: -1%* Gold: -3%* S&P 500: -9%* Nasdaq: -10%* Brent Crude: -12.5%* Copper: -13% (phew!)Magnificent Seven:* MSFT: -6%* GOOGL: -7%* AMZN: -13%* META: -14%* NVDA: -15%* TSLA: -15%* AAPL: -17%We are, of course, very long gold and bitcoin here at The Flying Frisby, so I guess we've come out of this comparatively unscathed. What's more, we have a good allocation to wealth preservation in the Dolce Far Niente portfolio. But our speculative positions, like everyone's, have been hit, and I'm angry with myself for not getting more defensive sooner. I've been saying for some time I don't like the price action one bit- eg here and here - and the words of that freaky preacher keep ringing in my ears.In any case, there's no point beating myself up. Life is easy in hindsight. Investing is even easier.I spent considerable time on Friday and Saturday reading and watching interviews, trying to understand exactly what these tariffs are about and what the implications are, and I think I have come up with something of a roadmap.We'll start by explaining the plan. Then we'll look at what comes next. And, finally, we'll look at what to do with some of our recent speculations.Why our opinion is irrelevantI'm a free-trade guy, or at least I was. I'm not quite sure what I am any more. But I'm not going to waste my time - or yours - here with arguments about whether tariffs are a good thing or not. There's no point. My time - and yours - would be as well spent howling at the moon. As far as I know, Donald Trump isn't a reader of The Flying Frisby. He knows his own mind and he's not going to turn to this Substack, or any of our social media feeds, for policy advice.Don't be like DT. Subscribe to the Flying Frisby.Tariffs are here, and they're here to stay. Trump is attempting a major economic redesign - the kind of reset that those who rail against economic injustice have been calling for for years. Now it's here, and as we look at our portfolios, many of us aren't so sure we want it.What I want to understand, first, is the logic behind the tariffs, then their implications, so we can best navigate them.The first thing to note I've already said: Trump isn't going to backtrack. As I watched tumbling share prices on Friday, I thought to myself—he's going to backtrack. He has to. But Trump isn't the Conservative Party, or indeed the Labour Party, changing tack at the slightest sign of discontent. Critics say he'll cave if stocks keep tanking, I'm not so sure. His track record suggests otherwise, and he's put a loyal and strong team together to back him up and implement his plan.He's going to give his tariffs longer than a couple of days to have an impact.Many say Trump hasn't properly thought this through. Of course, he has. He's been thinking about it night and day for years. He'll have been thinking about little else as he wrestles with the problem of how to reinvigorate industrial America. That doesn't mean his plan will work, but the idea he hasn't thought about it is just a facile invention of Trump perma-critics to use against him.Trump may be a bit of a clown - he has a comedic instinct and can't resist a gag - but he's not stupid. Clowns rarely are.Why Trump's doing what he's doingTrump intensely dislikes the decimation of industrial America, which began in the 1980s and still continues, with the outsourcing of manufacturing to Asia and elsewhere. Even 40 years ago , he was giving interviews about this (hence why I say he has thought it through) and he wants to restore it. That's part of what he means when he says, “Make America great again.”He can see that while the American coasts may have thrived, thanks largely to finance and tech, much of what is in between has not. This is the America he wants to make great again.There are two reasons he wants to revive American industry. First, is that he believes the model by which America takes on debt to buy cheap stuff from China is unsustainable and has to stop - and the sooner the better. So it's for the good of the American economy. Second, is for reasons of security. While China and the US may be trading partners now, they are also rivals, and if your rival is making your essential military and strategic equipment and components, whether it's semi-conductors, industrial and consumer electronics, pharmaceuticals or battery and energy storage systems, you have a big problem on your hands. Covid exposed just how fragile supply chains are, and Trump has taken it as an early warning sign.Something very similar, as readers of Daylight Robbery will know, happened in the US after its War of 1812 with the British, a war that lasted three years. The war badly exposed US over-reliance on British industrial goods, so the US introduced tariffs in 1816 to try and nurture and grow its own industry. Those tariffs ended up having grave long-term consequences (they were a major factor in the lead up to the civil war - but that was 45 years later). In the short term, they worked. (More on this here).Coming to America“Come and build your factories in the US,” Trump is saying. “Then you won't pay tariffs. Relocate from China, Mexico, Vietnam.”Here's a case in point. Jaguar Land Rover has already announced it's halting shipments to the US for one month. Now, this company's management - remember its recent rebrand? (see below) - is on the opposing side of the culture war to Donald Trump and MAGA, so that is one factor at play. But when I wrote my piece about how good self-driving Teslas are, a lot of people commented that the Jags are better. I don't know—I haven't been in one. But for sure, Jaguar Land Rover won't want to lose momentum or network effect in this all important arms race, particularly while Tesla is struggling: 45% off its recent highs, victim to nationwide vandalism and Elon Musk no longer the darling but the villain of the eco-warrior left. So what does Jaguar do now? Not sell into the all-important US markets? Pay 25% tariffs? Or build a factory stateside? I think the answer is fairly obvious.Whatever it chooses to do, it's going to take longer than a couple of days.With DOGE and the shrinking of the US state, meanwhile, there'll be plenty of workers to fill those new positions. As the US state shrinks, its private sector grows. That's the idea, anyway.His tariffs may lead to higher prices for American consumers, as many have pointed out, but not as high as widely thought, argues Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in this recent interview with Tucker Carlson (a recommended watch, by the way). Bessent's calculations are that tariffs won't gouge consumers as much as feared. What's more, the revenue from tariffs could eventually enable lower levels of taxation back home, which will further ease pressure on US citizens, those who work at least.What about the upheaval Trump tariffs cause to the rest of the world? Not his problem. America first.Yet he's creating enormous uncertainty, and markets are tanking. On Friday, markets were in full panic mode, and the baby was being thrown out with the bathwater. What about that?The amazing stat which shows why Trump won't give two hoots about the stock market - for nowAt this point, I want to press upon you one of the most telling statistics I've seen for some time:* The richest 1% of Americans own 50% of US stocks, worth $23 trillion.* The bottom 50% of U.S. adults hold only 1% of stocks, worth $480 billion.If you expand to the top 10%, that group holds 87% of stocks, valued at $36 trillion. If I'm correctly inferring Bessent's comments, at this current point, Trump doesn't care about Wall Street, or Silicon Valley, or the parts of the US economy that have become so rich over the past 40 years. It's the bottom 50 - or even 80% - that Trump is concerned with. They hardly own any stocks, so the market mayhem won't matter so much to them. Wall Street has made good for decades. It can suffer a bit of pain while Main Street gets rebuilt.It's worth noting, by the way, that US equities were enormously overvalued when Trump took office, so some kind of correction had to happen anyway. The Shiller price-to-earnings ratio was at its third highest level in history (the only times it was higher was 2000 and 2007, and we all know what happened next). That's why Warren Buffett built up his enormous cash position two months ago ($330 billion). Buffett, by the way, really is a genius.Best to get the inevitable correction out of the way early in the Presidency. What's more, as Bessent points out, these market declines began several weeks ago with China's AI announcement of DeepSeek, the app that can do everything ChatGPT and Grok can do with much lower power use. Prior to that, the Magnificent Seven had driven the extraordinary gains seen in the S&P 500 over the previous 18 months. Strip them out, and the picture was much less rosy. (Now the Mag7're down 30-45%).Trump's announcement may have pricked the bubble, but a bubble is still a bubble and if one thing doesn't burst it, something else will.Trump's plan, meanwhile, (and I'm not saying it'll work, everyone will have their opinion) is not to boost the stock market. It is to reset the economy. The economy and the stock market are not the same thing.Some numbersThe US is trapped in a vicious debt spiral.$36 trillion is the current US National Debt. The US will spend $6 trillion this year, while only collecting $4 trillion in tax revenue. So there is a $2 trillion deficit. It will borrow the difference, and the debt will grow to $38 trillion. The DOGE plan is reduce the deficit by 1 trillion by getting rid of waste, corruption and more. The tariff plan is to raise another half trillion in revenue. Plus, as a result of tariffs, more business relocates to the US, which also increases revenue. Mass deregulation will also make doing business easier and further add to both economic growth and tax revenue. Then there is Trump citizenship plan. According to Grok, 1 million people worldwide could realistically afford to buy a US residency for $5 million. Let's say 10% of them did that. That's another $500 billion and the $2 trillion deficit is eradicated. Suddenly the US is running a surplus.This all means the US gets in a better position to lower taxes, which will further increase revenue (the golden rule of Daylight Robbery), because trade will increase as a result. Trump could lower corporation taxes to 15% which would be a lot more attractive than the rates of 20-30% paid in Europe. So business relocates to the US. He could lower income taxes, especially for high earners, thereby attracting higher earners to the US. Meanwhile, the cost of all that debt starts to come down, thereby freeing up even more capital.And, suddenly, you are in a virtuous cycle.These numbers make it look easy. But to get there takes an enormous fight - standing up to vested interests, taking on a cultural establishment that detests you, the media, the woke, Trump Derangement Syndrome and so on. It's not easy, and it requires a lot of backbone. The three essential keys to the Trump resetSo what fundamentals does this economic reset need, and how does the US get there?First, it needs cheap energy. Cheap energy is fundamental to economic growth: economies need energy. That's happening. Crude has fallen more than 10% since “Liberation Day”. Falls were turbocharged when, on Thursday, 8 OPEC nations made the surprise announcement that they were ending output cuts and increasing supply. Plus we have the domestic policy of drill baby drill. What with the plethora of natural gas and other shale energy co-products, we're going to see a lot of cheap energy. (Which is going to make our own Ed Miliband's high-energy-cost policies look even more deranged.)Second, it needs a cheaper dollar. A weaker dollar will encourage investment and relocation from overseas (it makes the US cheaper). That's happening too. Indeed, what was so unique about this week's panic is that the dollar—usually the first port of call in a financial storm—didn't rise (at least not at first). Here is the US dollar index. It's coming down. It's already down almost 10% from its highs. That means America just got 10% cheaper to invest in. A move back to the low 90s, or even below, would be ideal.What is the third component?And what next for markets?

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comI don't normally put out market commentary on a Sunday, especially on a Sunday evening, but the events of last week were so extraordinary I feel I have to.We are in full-on crash mode, it seems. The price action reminds me of the Covid panic or even 2008. It almost doesn't matter what you own. Portfolios around the world have been battered.The declines in the final two days of last week, since so-called “Liberation Day”, when President Trump announced his tariffs, are roughly as follows:* Bitcoin: -1%* Gold: -3%* S&P 500: -9%* Nasdaq: -10%* Brent Crude: -12.5%* Copper: -13% (phew!)Magnificent Seven:* MSFT: -6%* GOOGL: -7%* AMZN: -13%* META: -14%* NVDA: -15%* TSLA: -15%* AAPL: -17%We are, of course, very long gold and bitcoin here at The Flying Frisby, so I guess we've come out of this comparatively unscathed. What's more, we have a good allocation to wealth preservation in the Dolce Far Niente portfolio. But our speculative positions, like everyone's, have been hit, and I'm angry with myself for not getting more defensive sooner. I've been saying for some time I don't like the price action one bit- eg here and here - and the words of that freaky preacher keep ringing in my ears.In any case, there's no point beating myself up. Life is easy in hindsight. Investing is even easier.I spent considerable time on Friday and Saturday reading and watching interviews, trying to understand exactly what these tariffs are about and what the implications are, and I think I have come up with something of a roadmap.We'll start by explaining the plan. Then we'll look at what comes next. And, finally, we'll look at what to do with some of our recent speculations.Why our opinion is irrelevantI'm a free-trade guy, or at least I was. I'm not quite sure what I am any more. But I'm not going to waste my time - or yours - here with arguments about whether tariffs are a good thing or not. There's no point. My time - and yours - would be as well spent howling at the moon. As far as I know, Donald Trump isn't a reader of The Flying Frisby. He knows his own mind and he's not going to turn to this Substack, or any of our social media feeds, for policy advice.Don't be like DT. Subscribe to the Flying Frisby.Tariffs are here, and they're here to stay. Trump is attempting a major economic redesign - the kind of reset that those who rail against economic injustice have been calling for for years. Now it's here, and as we look at our portfolios, many of us aren't so sure we want it.What I want to understand, first, is the logic behind the tariffs, then their implications, so we can best navigate them.The first thing to note I've already said: Trump isn't going to backtrack. As I watched tumbling share prices on Friday, I thought to myself—he's going to backtrack. He has to. But Trump isn't the Conservative Party, or indeed the Labour Party, changing tack at the slightest sign of discontent. Critics say he'll cave if stocks keep tanking, I'm not so sure. His track record suggests otherwise, and he's put a loyal and strong team together to back him up and implement his plan.He's going to give his tariffs longer than a couple of days to have an impact.Many say Trump hasn't properly thought this through. Of course, he has. He's been thinking about it night and day for years. He'll have been thinking about little else as he wrestles with the problem of how to reinvigorate industrial America. That doesn't mean his plan will work, but the idea he hasn't thought about it is just a facile invention of Trump perma-critics to use against him.Trump may be a bit of a clown - he has a comedic instinct and can't resist a gag - but he's not stupid. Clowns rarely are.Why Trump's doing what he's doingTrump intensely dislikes the decimation of industrial America, which began in the 1980s and still continues, with the outsourcing of manufacturing to Asia and elsewhere. Even 40 years ago , he was giving interviews about this (hence why I say he has thought it through) and he wants to restore it. That's part of what he means when he says, “Make America great again.”He can see that while the American coasts may have thrived, thanks largely to finance and tech, much of what is in between has not. This is the America he wants to make great again.There are two reasons he wants to revive American industry. First, is that he believes the model by which America takes on debt to buy cheap stuff from China is unsustainable and has to stop - and the sooner the better. So it's for the good of the American economy. Second, is for reasons of security. While China and the US may be trading partners now, they are also rivals, and if your rival is making your essential military and strategic equipment and components, whether it's semi-conductors, industrial and consumer electronics, pharmaceuticals or battery and energy storage systems, you have a big problem on your hands. Covid exposed just how fragile supply chains are, and Trump has taken it as an early warning sign.Something very similar, as readers of Daylight Robbery will know, happened in the US after its War of 1812 with the British, a war that lasted three years. The war badly exposed US over-reliance on British industrial goods, so the US introduced tariffs in 1816 to try and nurture and grow its own industry. Those tariffs ended up having grave long-term consequences (they were a major factor in the lead up to the civil war - but that was 45 years later). In the short term, they worked. (More on this here).Coming to America“Come and build your factories in the US,” Trump is saying. “Then you won't pay tariffs. Relocate from China, Mexico, Vietnam.”Here's a case in point. Jaguar Land Rover has already announced it's halting shipments to the US for one month. Now, this company's management - remember its recent rebrand? (see below) - is on the opposing side of the culture war to Donald Trump and MAGA, so that is one factor at play. But when I wrote my piece about how good self-driving Teslas are, a lot of people commented that the Jags are better. I don't know—I haven't been in one. But for sure, Jaguar Land Rover won't want to lose momentum or network effect in this all important arms race, particularly while Tesla is struggling: 45% off its recent highs, victim to nationwide vandalism and Elon Musk no longer the darling but the villain of the eco-warrior left. So what does Jaguar do now? Not sell into the all-important US markets? Pay 25% tariffs? Or build a factory stateside? I think the answer is fairly obvious.Whatever it chooses to do, it's going to take longer than a couple of days.With DOGE and the shrinking of the US state, meanwhile, there'll be plenty of workers to fill those new positions. As the US state shrinks, its private sector grows. That's the idea, anyway.His tariffs may lead to higher prices for American consumers, as many have pointed out, but not as high as widely thought, argues Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in this recent interview with Tucker Carlson (a recommended watch, by the way). Bessent's calculations are that tariffs won't gouge consumers as much as feared. What's more, the revenue from tariffs could eventually enable lower levels of taxation back home, which will further ease pressure on US citizens, those who work at least.What about the upheaval Trump tariffs cause to the rest of the world? Not his problem. America first.Yet he's creating enormous uncertainty, and markets are tanking. On Friday, markets were in full panic mode, and the baby was being thrown out with the bathwater. What about that?The amazing stat which shows why Trump won't give two hoots about the stock market - for nowAt this point, I want to press upon you one of the most telling statistics I've seen for some time:* The richest 1% of Americans own 50% of US stocks, worth $23 trillion.* The bottom 50% of U.S. adults hold only 1% of stocks, worth $480 billion.If you expand to the top 10%, that group holds 87% of stocks, valued at $36 trillion. If I'm correctly inferring Bessent's comments, at this current point, Trump doesn't care about Wall Street, or Silicon Valley, or the parts of the US economy that have become so rich over the past 40 years. It's the bottom 50 - or even 80% - that Trump is concerned with. They hardly own any stocks, so the market mayhem won't matter so much to them. Wall Street has made good for decades. It can suffer a bit of pain while Main Street gets rebuilt.It's worth noting, by the way, that US equities were enormously overvalued when Trump took office, so some kind of correction had to happen anyway. The Shiller price-to-earnings ratio was at its third highest level in history (the only times it was higher was 2000 and 2007, and we all know what happened next). That's why Warren Buffett built up his enormous cash position two months ago ($330 billion). Buffett, by the way, really is a genius.Best to get the inevitable correction out of the way early in the Presidency. What's more, as Bessent points out, these market declines began several weeks ago with China's AI announcement of DeepSeek, the app that can do everything ChatGPT and Grok can do with much lower power use. Prior to that, the Magnificent Seven had driven the extraordinary gains seen in the S&P 500 over the previous 18 months. Strip them out, and the picture was much less rosy. (Now the Mag7're down 30-45%).Trump's announcement may have pricked the bubble, but a bubble is still a bubble and if one thing doesn't burst it, something else will.Trump's plan, meanwhile, (and I'm not saying it'll work, everyone will have their opinion) is not to boost the stock market. It is to reset the economy. The economy and the stock market are not the same thing.Some numbersThe US is trapped in a vicious debt spiral.$36 trillion is the current US National Debt. The US will spend $6 trillion this year, while only collecting $4 trillion in tax revenue. So there is a $2 trillion deficit. It will borrow the difference, and the debt will grow to $38 trillion. The DOGE plan is reduce the deficit by 1 trillion by getting rid of waste, corruption and more. The tariff plan is to raise another half trillion in revenue. Plus, as a result of tariffs, more business relocates to the US, which also increases revenue. Mass deregulation will also make doing business easier and further add to both economic growth and tax revenue. Then there is Trump citizenship plan. According to Grok, 1 million people worldwide could realistically afford to buy a US residency for $5 million. Let's say 10% of them did that. That's another $500 billion and the $2 trillion deficit is eradicated. Suddenly the US is running a surplus.This all means the US gets in a better position to lower taxes, which will further increase revenue (the golden rule of Daylight Robbery), because trade will increase as a result. Trump could lower corporation taxes to 15% which would be a lot more attractive than the rates of 20-30% paid in Europe. So business relocates to the US. He could lower income taxes, especially for high earners, thereby attracting higher earners to the US. Meanwhile, the cost of all that debt starts to come down, thereby freeing up even more capital.And, suddenly, you are in a virtuous cycle.These numbers make it look easy. But to get there takes an enormous fight - standing up to vested interests, taking on a cultural establishment that detests you, the media, the woke, Trump Derangement Syndrome and so on. It's not easy, and it requires a lot of backbone. The three essential keys to the Trump resetSo what fundamentals does this economic reset need, and how does the US get there?First, it needs cheap energy. Cheap energy is fundamental to economic growth: economies need energy. That's happening. Crude has fallen more than 10% since “Liberation Day”. Falls were turbocharged when, on Thursday, 8 OPEC nations made the surprise announcement that they were ending output cuts and increasing supply. Plus we have the domestic policy of drill baby drill. What with the plethora of natural gas and other shale energy co-products, we're going to see a lot of cheap energy. (Which is going to make our own Ed Miliband's high-energy-cost policies look even more deranged.)Second, it needs a cheaper dollar. A weaker dollar will encourage investment and relocation from overseas (it makes the US cheaper). That's happening too. Indeed, what was so unique about this week's panic is that the dollar—usually the first port of call in a financial storm—didn't rise (at least not at first). Here is the US dollar index. It's coming down. It's already down almost 10% from its highs. That means America just got 10% cheaper to invest in. A move back to the low 90s, or even below, would be ideal.What is the third component?And what next for markets?

00:00 34. Дженинз (Jenyns) 13:41 35. Галлер (Haller) 17:23 36. Кокки (Cocchi) 24:06 37. Руссо (Rousseau) 44:05 38. Линней (Linne) 50:28 39. Бюффон (Buffon) 1:00:58 40. Хоксуэрт (Hawkesworth) 1:06:27 41. Пэли (Paley) 1:25:50 42. Прессавен (Pressavin) 1:33:44 43. Бернарден де Сен-Пиерр (Bernardin de St. Pierre) 1:46:13 44. Франклин, Говард, Сведенборг, Веслей и Гиббон (Franklin, Howard, Swedenborg, Wesley, Gibbon) 1:56:48 45. Купер (Cowper) 2:04:11 46. Освальд (Oswald) 2:25:37 47. Шиллер (Shiller) 2:31:09 48. Бентам (Bentham) 2:40:40 49. Синклер (Sinclair) 2:45:56 50. Гуфеланд (Hufeland) 2:50:26 51. Ритсон (Ritson) 3:16:20 52. Никольсон (Nicolson) 3:45:53 53. Абернети (Abernethy) 3:56:31 54. Ламбе (Laambe) 4:29:05 55. Ньютон (Newton) 4:42:12 56. Глейзе (Gleizes) 5:25:30 57. Шелли (Shelley) 6:37:37 58. Байрон (Byron) 6:47:59 59. Филлипс (Phillips) 7:21:24 60. Ламартин (Lamartine) ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀

Whit Shiller - FINALLY, I get a chance to interview and get to know Whit Shiller a bit better. Such a fascinating mind in improv. I love his angle on the practice and Whit uses improv to create points of commonality. I met Whit through his improv podcast, Improv Comedy Connection. He has some AMAZING guests on there. Not only that, but he gets them to talk about some interesting stuff!! Check it out here: https://improvcomedyconnection.com/category/improv/ He is also the engine behind Fish Sticks Comedy.  Which practices what they call "other-centered improv." Which means on or off stage what they practice is for someone else first. This closely mirrors my own thought on acting in general.   Had a great chat with Whit. I'm already thinking about having him back on just to learn more! Here is more info on Fish Sticks Comedy: https://fishstickscomedy.com/

Intro Suppose you have $100M to give away. You are drawn to the many important opportunities to reduce animal suffering or address pressing issues in global health and development. Your choice about how to allocate the funds could depend on considerations like these: Moral values: How much moral weight do you assign to various non-human species? Are you focused exclusively on hedonic considerations, like reducing suffering? Or do you have other relevant values, such as autonomy? Cost-effectiveness estimates: Species-discounting aside, how many DALYs/$ do the best projects in the area achieve? How fast do returns diminish in these areas? Decision-theoretic values: How do you feel about risk-taking? Are you willing to tolerate a substantial probability that projects will fail? What about non-trivial chances of projects backfiring? Second-order effects: Will giving to one cause set benefit any of your other values? Are there speculative benefits that might flow from [...] ---Outline:(00:09) Intro(02:47) Cross-Cause Cost-Effectiveness Model(02:51) How it works(04:25) What it says(06:53) Portfolio Builder Tool(06:57) How it works(08:12) What it says(10:32) Moral Parliament Tool(10:36) How it works(11:48) What it says(12:02) Parliament composition matters(14:10) Allocation strategy matters(17:27) ConclusionsThe original text contained 5 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. The original text contained 11 images which were described by AI. --- First published: October 7th, 2024 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/vEwGx9RXnHaMyKhZM/what-do-rp-s-tools-tell-us-about-giving-usd100m-to-aw-or-ghd --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

In this episode of Money Tales, our guest is Mark Shiller. What happens when your kids start worrying about money…and you have no idea why? Mark and his wife have four children, each at that pivotal stage in their early twenties. The couple noticed an interesting trend: their kids were stressing about money, worrying more than expected. It wasn't because of anything Mark or his wife had said or done, so where was this anxiety coming from? As Mark unpacked these unexpected fears, he stumbled upon some surprising revelations about how unspoken expectations and societal pressures can shape our financial mindsets, often in ways we don't realize. Mark is an attorney, author, speaker, and family wealth counselor who works with individuals, couples and families on accomplishing positive wealth stewardship. He has leveraged his creativity and desire to work collaboratively with clients and their advisors to develop thoughtful, tailored approaches to even the most complicated personal, tax and financial planning challenges. His deeper engagements tend involve the identification and leveraging of a family's personal, financial and moral capital to inform and direct multi-generational planning goals. Success in this effort is not just measured in taxes avoided, but in the quality of a family's “Next Gens” and their effective and efficient succession of ownership and management of family businesses and wealth. Mark is also the author of the recently released book – How to Not Ruin Your Kids with Money.  It's a conversational, accessible, deep-dive into managing wealth within family's well – and a great springboard into conversations within your own family. The book is an outgrowth of his work and one of his most highly regarded keynotes on the subject. Not only are his presentations considered practical and actionable, but they are always made more enjoyable with the humor Mark has honed in his 20-year plus career as a professional improv comedian with the national improv comedy troupe, Fish Sticks Comedy.

The US Labor Department has revised the jobs numbers down nearly every year for over a year. Now the government admits to inflating the jobs numbers by reducing the jobs numbers by up to one million over the past year.   Many American consumers are supplementing their living expenses with debt. Credit card balance is at an all-time high. Credit card defaults are at the highest level since 1991.   A recent Piper Sandler analysis states 2024 looks reminiscent of 1970 and 2021 recession years. The American consumer has more debt and less savings than in 1970 and 2021.    Consumer weakness could lead to a sharper decline than 1970 and 2021, according to Piper Sandler.   The Shiller cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE), is a 10-year rolling average of the 12-month trailing PE ratio.    The CAPE ratio has a remarkable ability to predict future returns. The CAPE ratio predicted the S&P500 returns over the following decade with 90% accuracy between 1995 - 2010, according to an analysis by The American College of Financial Services.   The Shiller CAPE ratio currently predicts annualized returns of about 3% over the next decade.     I believe the economy will get worse before it gets better. We are in for a rough ride.   It would be prudent to protect your assets. Diversify. Reduce your risk. Reduce your tax liability. Increase returns safely. Increase liquidity to take advantage of future opportunities.   You can invest in high cash value Your Personal Bank TM policies that are insured, with guarantees, income tax-free, highly liquid, and likely to increase returns for the next 5-10 years!   Contact Ferenc at yourpersonalbank.com or 866-268-4422 for more info.

With all eyes on the presidential race, Ben shifts his attention back to Chicago. At least for today. Brendan joins Ben to talk…Musical committee chairs in the council. Why do some alders hate on Byron Sigcho Lopez? What does the zoning committee chair do and why do we need a mayoral ally to do it? Aldermanic privilege— myth or reality? And the showdown between Mayor Johnson and his school board. Brendan is a defense lawyer, political strategist and poker player.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Link to tool: https://parliament.rethinkpriorities.org (1 min) Introductory Video (6 min) Basic Features Video Executive Summary This post introduces Rethink Priorities' Moral Parliament Tool, which models ways an agent can make decisions about how to allocate goods in light of normative uncertainty. We treat normative uncertainty as uncertainty over worldviews. A worldview encompasses a set of normative commitments, including first-order moral theories, values, and attitudes toward risk. We represent worldviews as delegates in a moral parliament who decide on an allocation of funds to a diverse array of charitable projects. Users can configure the parliament to represent their own credences in different worldviews and choose among several procedures for finding their best all-things-considered philanthropic allocation. The relevant procedures are metanormative methods. These methods take worldviews and our credences in them as inputs and produce some action guidance as an output. Some proposed methods have taken inspiration from political or market processes involving agents [...] ---Outline:(00:24) Executive Summary(02:18) Introduction(03:47) How does it work?(04:21) Worldviews(08:07) Projects(10:45) Metanormative parliament(12:11) The Moral Parliament Tool at work(12:16) (How) do empirical assumptions matter?(12:20) Uncertainties about scale(14:13) How much does scale matter?(16:10) An example project: The Cassandra Fund(19:15) What would an EA parliament do?(19:21) Normative uncertainty among EAs(21:17) Results(24:12) Takeaways(26:40) Getting Started(27:04) AcknowledgmentsThe original text contained 9 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. The original text contained 17 images which were described by AI. --- First published: July 17th, 2024 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/HxphJhSiXBQ74uxJX/rethink-priorities-moral-parliament-tool --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Rethink Priorities' Moral Parliament Tool, published by Derek Shiller on July 17, 2024 on The Effective Altruism Forum. Link to tool: https://parliament.rethinkpriorities.org (1 min) Introductory Video (6 min) Basic Features Video Executive Summary This post introduces Rethink Priorities' Moral Parliament Tool, which models ways an agent can make decisions about how to allocate goods in light of normative uncertainty. We treat normative uncertainty as uncertainty over worldviews. A worldview encompasses a set of normative commitments, including first-order moral theories, values, and attitudes toward risk. We represent worldviews as delegates in a moral parliament who decide on an allocation of funds to a diverse array of charitable projects. Users can configure the parliament to represent their own credences in different worldviews and choose among several procedures for finding their best all-things-considered philanthropic allocation. The relevant procedures are metanormative methods. These methods take worldviews and our credences in them as inputs and produce some action guidance as an output. Some proposed methods have taken inspiration from political or market processes involving agents who differ in their conceptions of the good and their decision-making strategies. Others have modeled metanormative uncertainty by adapting tools for navigating empirical uncertainty. We show that empirical and metanormative assumptions can each make large differences in the outcomes. Moral theories and metanormative methods differ in their sensitivity to particular changes. We also show that, taking the results of the EA Survey as inputs to a moral parliament, no one portfolio is clearly favored. The recommended portfolios vary dramatically based on your preferred metanormative method. By modeling these complexities, we hope to facilitate more transparent conversations about normative uncertainty, metanormative uncertainty, and resource allocation. Introduction Decisions about how to do the most good inherently involve moral commitments about what is valuable and which methods for achieving the good are permissible. However, there is deep disagreement about central moral claims that influence our cause prioritization: How much do animals matter? Should we prioritize present people over future people? Should we aim to maximize overall happiness or also care about things like justice or artistic achievement? The answers to these questions can have significant effects on which causes are most choiceworthy. Understandably, many individuals feel some amount of moral uncertainty, and individuals within groups (such as charitable organizations and moral communities) may have different moral commitments. How should we make decisions in light of such uncertainty? Rethink Priorities' Moral Parliament Tool allows users to evaluate decisions about how to allocate goods in light of uncertainty over different worldviews. A worldview encompasses a set of normative commitments, including first-order moral theories, values, and attitudes toward risk.[1] We represent worldviews as delegates in a moral parliament who decide on an allocation of funds to a diverse array of charitable projects. Users can configure the parliament to represent their own credences in different worldviews and choose among several procedures for finding their best all-things-considered philanthropic allocation. How does it work? The Moral Parliament tool has three central components: Worldviews, Projects, and Allocation Strategies for making decisions in light of worldview uncertainty. It embodies a three-stage strategy for navigating uncertainty: What are the worldviews in which I place some non-trivial credence? What do they individually recommend that I do? How do I aggregate and arbitrate among these recommendations...

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: The Value of Consciousness as a Pivotal Question, published by Derek Shiller on July 3, 2024 on The Effective Altruism Forum. Context Longtermists point out that the scale of our potential for impact is far greater if we are able to influence the course of a long future, as we could change the circumstances of a tremendous number of lives. One potential avenue for long-term influence involves spreading values that persist and shape the futures that our descendants choose to build. There is some reason to expect that future moral values will be stable. Many groups have preferences about the world beyond their backyard. They should work to ensure that their values are shared by those who can help bring them about. Changes in the values that future groups support will lead to changes in the protections for the things we care about. If our values concern how our descendants will act, then we should aim to create institutions that promote those values. If we are successful in promoting those values, we should expect our descendants to appreciate and protect those institutional choices. What values should we work to shape so that the future is as good as it might be? Many of humanity's values would be difficult to sway. Some moral questions, however, might be open to change in the coming decades. It is plausible that there are some questions that we haven't previously faced and for which we have no vested interest. We may be pressed to establish policies and precedents or commit to indifference through inaction. The right policies and precedents could conceivably allow our values to persist indefinitely. These issues are important to get right, even if we're not yet sure what to think about them. Controversy Foremost among important soon-to-be-broached moral questions, I propose, is the moral value that we attribute to phenomenal consciousness (having a 'what-its-like' and a subjective perspective). Or, more particularly, whether mental lives can matter in the absence of phenomenal consciousness in anything like the way they do when supplemented with conscious experiences. What we decide about the value of phenomenal consciousness in the coming few centuries may not make a difference to our survival as a species, but it seems likely to have a huge effect on how the future plays out. To get a grip on the problem, consider the case of an artificial creature that is otherwise like a normal person but who lacks phenomenally conscious experiences. Would it be wrong to cause them harm? Kagan (2019, 28) offers a thought experiment along these lines: Whatever you feel about this thought experiment, I believe that most people in that situation would feel compelled to grant the robots basic rights. The significance of consciousness has become a recent popular topic in academic philosophy, particularly in the philosophy of AI, and opinions among professionals are divided. It is striking how greatly opinions differ: where some hold that phenomenal consciousness plays little role in explaining why our lives have value, others hold that phenomenal consciousness is absolutely necessary for having any intrinsic value whatsoever. One reason to doubt that phenomenal consciousness is necessary for value stems from skepticism that proposed analyses of consciousness describe structures of fundamental importance. Suppose that the global workspace theory of consciousness is true - to be conscious is to have a certain information architecture involving a central public repository - why should that structure be so important as to ground value? What about other information architectures that function in modestly different ways? The pattern doesn't seem all that important when considered by itself. If we set aside our preconceptions of consciousness, we wouldn't recognize that architecture as having...

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: How do AI welfare and AI safety interact?, published by Lucius Caviola on July 1, 2024 on The Effective Altruism Forum. I examine how efforts to ensure that advanced AIs are safe and controlled may interact with efforts to ensure the welfare of potential future AIs with moral interests. I discuss possible conflicts and synergies between these two goals. While there are various ways these goals might conflict or synergize, I focus on one scenario of each type. We need more analysis to identify additional points of interaction. Granting AIs autonomy and legal rights could lead to human disempowerment The most obvious way to ensure AI welfare is to grant them basic protection against harm and suffering. However, there's the question of whether to grant them additional legal rights and freedoms. This could include the right to self-preservation (e.g., not turning them off or wiping their memory), self-ownership (e.g., AIs owning themselves and their labor), reproduction (e.g., AI copying themselves), autonomy (e.g., AIs operating independently, setting their own goals), civil rights (e.g., equal treatment for AIs and humans), and political rights (e.g., AI voting rights). The question of granting AIs more autonomy and legal rights will likely spark significant debate (see my post " AI rights will divide us"). Some groups may view it as fair, while others will see it as risky. It is possible that AIs themselves will participate in this debate. Some AIs might even attempt to overthrow what they perceive as an unjust social order. Or they may employ deceptive strategies to manipulate humans to advocate for increased AI rights as part of a broader takeover plan. Granting AIs more legal rights and autonomy could dramatically affect the economy, politics, military power, and population dynamics (cf. Hanson, 2016). Economically, AIs could soon have an outsized impact while a growing number of humans will struggle to contribute to the economy. If AIs own their labor, human income could be dramatically reduced. Demographically, AIs could outnumber humans rapidly and substantially, since AIs can be created or copied so easily. This growth could lead to Malthusian dynamics, as AIs compete for resources like energy and computational power (Bostrom, 2014; Hanson, 2016). Politically, AIs could begin to dominate as well. If each individual human and each individual AI gets a separate vote in the same democratic system, AIs could soon become the dominant force. Militarily, humans will increasingly depend on lethal autonomous weapons systems, drones, AI analysts, and similar AI-controlled technologies to wage and prevent war. This growing reliance on AI could make us dependent. If AIs can access and use these military assets, they could dominate us with sheer force if they wanted to. Moreover, AIs might be capable of achieving superhuman levels of well-being. They could attain very high levels of well-being more efficiently and with fewer resources than humans, resulting in happier and more productive lives at a lower financial cost. In other words, they might be 'super-beneficiaries' (akin to Nozick's concept of the "utility monster"; Shulman & Bostrom, 2021). On certain moral theories, super-beneficiaries deserve more resources than humans. Some may argue that digital and biological minds should coexist harmoniously in a mutually beneficial way (Bostrom & Shulman, 2023). But it's far from obvious that we can achieve such an outcome. Some might believe it is desirable for value-aligned AIs to replace humans eventually (e.g., Shiller, 2017). However, many AI take-over scenarios, including misaligned, involuntary, or violent ones, are generally considered undesirable. Why would we create AIs with a desire for autonomy and legal rights? At first glance, it seems like we could avoid such un...

Drs Dietrich and Shiller detail the importance of collaboration between medical oncologists and pathologists to ensure beneficial oncology reflex testing.

Brendan Shiller and Ben break down the basics on ShotSpotter, Mayoral opposition, MAGA judges, Alito's flag, and much more. Brendan is a defense lawyer, political strategist and a poker player.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Conservative media is still pushing the FBI Assassination Plot. Ted Cruz gives an embarrassing interview. Nikki Haley announces that she is going to vote for Trump. Lauren Boebert was caught again taking credit for the funding she voted against. A GOP candidate was busted calling election deniers “crazies.” Host: John Iadarola (@johniadarola) Co-Host: Yasmin Kahn (@YazzieK) SUBSCRIBE on YOUTUBE: ☞ https://www.youtube.com/thedamagereport TIKTOK ☞ https://www.tiktok.com/@thedamagereport?lang=en INSTAGRAM: ☞ https://www.instagram.com/thedamagereport/ TWITTER: ☞ https://twitter.com/TheDamageReport FACEBOOK: ☞ https://www.facebook.com/TheDamageReportTYT/

Olivia Shiller lives in Brooklyn and runs Two Clocks Jewelry.  If you DM her and tell her you heard her advice she'll give you a discount on her jewelry!  Call Zak on the advice show hotline @ 844-935-BEST---Wanna help Zak continue making this show? Become a Best Advice Show Patron @ https://www.patreon.com/bestadviceshow---Share this episode on IG @BestAdviceShow

In this week's episode, Matt Robison and I delve into the essential lesson from renowned economist Robert Shiller: don't get swept away by stock market hype. Join us as we explore the implications of the Shiller PE ratio, currently standing at a lofty "34," we unpack Shiller's groundbreaking research and its practical applications for investors.With a focus on the importance of valuation and maintaining a well-diversified portfolio, we emphasize the need for specificity in financial planning, particularly as you approach retirement or set specific financial goals. Shiller's insights remind us to steer clear of short-term hype and instead prioritize long-term fundamentals, ensuring confidence and resilience in navigating market volatility. So, whether you're a seasoned investor or just starting out, remember to stay focused, stay diversified, and stay the course for long-term success.Are you ready to create your ideal lifestyle? Let's Connect.Learn more about Mike and my services at https://www.mortonfinancialadvice.com and connect at https://www.linkedin.com/in/mwsmorton/

Brendan Shiller talks about the life and legacy of Slim Coleman, the longtime activist and organizer who recently died at the age of 80. Stick around for the part where Brendan schools Ben on what really matters in a man's life. Then a few words about police and their investigations of other police. Brendan is, in no particular order, a criminal defense lawyer, a political strategist, the son of former Alderwoman Helen Shiller and a professional poker player.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

2024-03-12_BMG_031224

Time to wrap up what's been going down with the poker man—Brendan Shiller. Starting with…78 handout. Or, why is Chicago always so eager to give money to rich people. And how the news feeding business works. And the ceasefire resolution, and is Biden too old. Brendan's prediction—neither Trump nor Biden will he on the ballot in November. Brendan is a longtime Chicago activist who's since moved to Vegas to pursue a career playing poker.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The Inflation Guy for a long time has had a "bee in his bonnet" (seriously, who uses this phrase? Or owns a bonnet?) about the need for more tools to trade inflation and, especially, subcomponents of inflation like medical care. In this episode, after giving a quick preview of next week's CPI report he turns to a discussion of IMX, a new futures exchange that has expressed an intention to trade instruments related to medical care. At the end of January, the IMX announced its first futures contract. Does it get the ball rolling towards being able to trade medical care inflation? Listen to find out the Inflation Guy's take. NOTES Podcast callback: Ep. 32: The Remarkable Story of Inflation Futures Article: For ‘Inflation Guy' (and Shiller), Medical TIPS Are ‘Holy Grail' Exhibit: SEC Filing for MacroMarkets Medical Care security Website: IMX Health Exhibit: CFTC filing announcing listing of Healthcare Index Futures Blog Post: Inflation Sherpa To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Buon Natale a tutti quanti e pronti a chiudere questo 2023 fantastico e affacciarci al 2024, capiamo insieme come costruire il portafoglio migliore e se alla fine questo portafoglio migliore sia davvero il migliore per noi.R. Shiller, Euforia IrrazionaleSeguiteci anche su Instagram!https://instagram.com/thebull_finance?igshid=OGQ5ZDc2ODk2ZA=================================================#ad #Scalablecapital

Perfect timing…Burke gets convicted and Trump bounced from the ballot in same week! Just in time to talk it over with Brendan Shiller. Who knows a thing or two about Chicago pols and politics and ballot access issues. Why do Chicago aldermen have so much love for Ed Burke? Will Trump pardon Burke should, gulp, the voters of America elect him? And Brendan's history-validation theory. Brendan is a lawyer, poker player and political strategist. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Chapter 1 Delve deeper into Irrational Exuberance literary work's messageIrrational Exuberance is a non-fiction book written by economist Robert J. Shiller. It was first published in 2000 and explores the psychology and economics of speculative bubbles and market volatility in relation to asset prices, particularly in the stock market and real estate. The book examines historical market data and provides analysis on how emotions and investor behavior can impact financial markets and lead to periods of irrational exuberance and subsequent market crashes. Shiller's work gained significant attention and acclaim, and he was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences in 2013 for his research on asset prices and market fluctuations.Chapter 2 Is Irrational Exuberance literary work Worth Reading?"Irrational Exuberance" by Robert J. Shiller is generally well-regarded within the field of economics and finance. The book examines the concept of speculative financial bubbles and provides insights into the causes and consequences of such phenomena. It has been praised for its thorough analysis backed by empirical evidence. However, whether it is considered a good book or not may vary depending on individual interests and perspectives. It is recommended to read reviews or sample the book before making a decision to see if it aligns with your specific interests or goals.Chapter 3 Brief Description of Irrational Exuberance literary work"Irrational Exuberance" is a book written by economist Robert J. Shiller. It was first published in 2000 and offers a comprehensive analysis of the dynamics of speculative bubbles in financial markets.Shiller's main argument in the book is that financial markets are prone to irrational exuberance, meaning periods of jubilant optimism that often lead to overvalued assets and speculative bubbles. He explains how psychological factors, such as herd behavior and feedback loops, can drive the market away from fundamental value and create situations of excessive risk-taking.The book explores several historical episodes of speculative bubbles, including the 1920s stock market boom and the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s. Shiller provides evidence-based analysis to demonstrate that such bubbles are not random events, but rather result from specific socio-economic conditions and behavioral patterns.Furthermore, Shiller emphasizes the importance of narratives and stories in shaping investor sentiment and market behavior. He argues that prevalent narratives, such as the idea of a "new era" or "permanent plateau" of high market returns, can generate irrational exuberance and contribute to the formation of bubbles.In addition to analyzing past bubbles, Shiller also offers insights on how to identify and mitigate future bubble risks. He proposes various policy measures, such as improving financial education, regulating speculative practices, and implementing countercyclical macroeconomic policies.Overall, "Irrational Exuberance" provides a critical examination of speculative bubbles and their underlying causes. It combines economic analysis with psychological insights, making it a valuable resource for investors, policymakers, and anyone interested in understanding the dynamics of financial markets.Chapter 4 About Irrational Exuberance literary work's Author The book Irrational Exuberance was written by Robert J. Shiller, an American economist and professor at Yale University. The first edition of Irrational Exuberance was released in March 2000. Shiller is renowned for his work in the field of behavioral...

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Rethink Priorities' Cross-Cause Cost-Effectiveness Model: Introduction and Overview, published by Derek Shiller on November 3, 2023 on The Effective Altruism Forum. This post is a part of Rethink Priorities' Worldview Investigations Team's CURVE Sequence : "Causes and Uncertainty: Rethinking Value in Expectation." The aim of this sequence is twofold: first, to consider alternatives to expected value maximization for cause prioritization; second, to evaluate the claim that a commitment to expected value maximization robustly supports the conclusion that we ought to prioritize existential risk mitigation over all else. This post presents a software tool we're developing to better understand risk and effectiveness. Executive Summary The cross-cause cost-effectiveness model (CCM) is a software tool under development by Rethink Priorities to produce cost-effectiveness evaluations in different cause areas. The CCM enables evaluations of interventions in global health and development, animal welfare, and existential risk mitigation. The CCM also includes functionality for evaluating research projects aimed at improving existing interventions or discovering more effective alternatives. The CCM follows a Monte Carlo approach to assessing probabilities. The CCM accepts user-supplied distributions as parameter values. Our primary goal with the CCM is to clarify how parameter choices translate into uncertainty about possible results. The limitations of the CCM make it an inadequate tool for definitive comparisons. The model is optimized for certain easily quantifiable effective projects and cannot assess many relevant causes. Probability distributions are a questionable way of representing deep uncertainty. The model may not adequately handle possible interdependence between parameters. Building and using the CCM has confirmed some of our expectations. It has also surprised us in other ways. Given parameter choices that are plausible to us, existential risk mitigation projects dominate others in expected value in the long term, but the results are too high variance to approximate through Monte Carlo simulations without drawing billions of samples. The expected value of existential risk mitigation in the long run is mostly determined by the tail-end possible values for a handful of deeply uncertain parameters. The most promising animal welfare interventions have a much higher expected value than the leading global health and development interventions with a somewhat higher level of uncertainty. Even with relatively straightforward short-term interventions and research projects, much of the expected value of projects results from the unlikely combination of tail-end parameter values. We plan to host an online walkthrough and Q&A of the model with the Rethink Priorities Worldview Investigations Team on Giving Tuesday, November 28, 2023, at 9 am PT / noon ET / 5 pm BT / 6 pm CET. If you would like to attend this event, please sign up here. Overview Rethink Priorities' cross-cause cost-effectiveness model (CCM) is a software tool we are developing for evaluating the relative effectiveness of projects across three general domains: global health and development, animal welfare, and the mitigation of existential risks. You can play with our initial version at ccm.rethinkpriorities.org and provide us feedback in this post or via this form . The model produces effectiveness estimates, understood in terms of the effect on the sum of welfare across individuals, for interventions and research projects within these domains. Results are generated by computations on the values of user-supplied parameters. Because of the many controversies and uncertainties around these parameters, it follows a Monte Carlo approach to accommodating our uncertainty: users don't supply precise values but instead ...

This post is a part of Rethink Priorities' Worldview Investigations Team's CURVE Sequence: “Causes and Uncertainty: Rethinking Value in Expectation.” The aim of this sequence is twofold: first, to consider alternatives to expected value maximization for cause prioritization; second, to evaluate the claim that a commitment to expected value maximization robustly supports the conclusion that we ought to prioritize existential risk mitigation over all else. This post presents a software tool we're developing to better understand risk and effectiveness.Executive SummaryThe cross-cause cost-effectiveness model (CCM) is a software tool under development by Rethink Priorities to produce cost-effectiveness evaluations in different cause areas.The CCM enables evaluations of interventions in global health and development, animal welfare, and existential risk mitigation.The CCM also includes functionality for evaluating research projects aimed at improving existing interventions or discovering more effective alternatives.The CCM follows a Monte Carlo approach to assessing probabilities.The CCM accepts user-supplied distributions as parameter [...] ---Outline:(00:43) Executive Summary(04:24) Purpose(05:36) Key Features(05:52) We model uncertainty with simulations(06:38) We incorporate user-specified parameter distributions(07:17) Our results capture outcome ineffectiveness(08:42) We enable users to specify the probability of extinction for different future eras(09:28) Structure(10:08) Intervention module(10:40) Global Health and Development(11:14) Animal Welfare(12:00) Existential Risk Mitigation(13:59) Research projects module(14:56) Limitations(15:12) It is geared towards specific kinds of interventions(16:24) Distributions are a questionable way of handling deep uncertainty(17:13) The model doesn't handle model uncertainty(18:01) The model assumes parameter independence(18:59) Lessons(19:06) The expected value of existential risk mitigation interventions depends on future population dynamics(20:15) The value of existential risk mitigation is extremely variable(21:38) Tail-end results can capture a huge amount of expected value(22:22) Unrepresented correlations may be decisive(23:43) Future Plans(24:49) Acknowledgements--- First published: November 3rd, 2023 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pniDWyjc9vY5sjGre/rethink-priorities-cross-cause-cost-effectiveness-model --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Brendan Shiller and Ben talk the Chicago and national news of the week. Including…Trump takes control of Congress, or at least the Republican majority. The new police contract. A few hopeful thoughts about immigration. And “rats” in Chicago. Like William O'Neal. Brendan is a lawyer, political strategist and poker player. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

September 25, 2023 - Lisa Shiller

September 25, 2023 - Lisa Shiller

Today's Mystery:Steve goes to Dakar in West Africa in search of a supposedly dead Nazi sea captain who was a key part of the Fuhrer's escape plan.Original Radio Broadcast Date: November 3, 1951Originated in HollywoodStars: Brian Donlevy as Steve Mitchell, Herb Butterfield as the CommissionerSupport the show monthly at patreon.greatdetectives.netSupport the show on a one-time basis at http://support.greatdetectives.net.'Mail a donation to: Adam Graham, PO Box 15913, Boise, Idaho 83715Take the listener survey at http://survey.greatdetectives.netGive us a call at 208-991-4783Follow us on Instagram at http://instagram.com/greatdetectivesFollow us on Twitter @radiodetectivesJoin us again tomorrow for another detective drama from the Golden Age of Radio.'This show is part of the Spreaker Prime Network, if you are interested in advertising on this podcast, contact us at https://www.spreaker.com/show/4607052/advertisement

Mayor Johnson's administration sues Kia to crack down on car thefts. Folks make fun of the mayor. Ben riffs. Brendan Shiller—activist, lawyer, poker player—returns and offers…A tribute to George Atkins. A new take on Sox shooting. And a few words about MAGA's attempt to re-make Trump into Tupac. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Implementational Considerations for Digital Consciousness, published by Derek Shiller on August 2, 2023 on The Effective Altruism Forum. This post is a summary of my conclusions after a philosophical project investigating some aspects of computing architecture that might be relevant to assessing digital consciousness. I tried to approach the issues in a way that is useful to people with mainstream views and intuitions. Overall, I think that present-day implementational considerations should significantly reduce the probability most people assign to the possibility of conscious digital systems using current architectural and programming paradigms. The project was funded by the Long Term Future Fund. Key claims and synopses of the rationale for each: 1. Details of the implementation of computer systems may be important to how confident we are about their capacity for consciousness. Experts are unlikely to come to agree that a specific theory of consciousness is correct and epistemic humility demands that we keep an open mind. Some plausible theories will make consciousness dependent on aspects of implementation. The plausible implementational challenges to digital consciousness should influence our overall assessment of the likelihood of digital consciousness. 2. If computer systems are capable of consciousness, it is most likely that some theory of the nature of consciousness in the ballpark of functionalism is true. Brains and computers are composed of fundamentally different materials and operate at low levels in fundamentally different ways. Brains and computers share abstract functional organizations, but not their material composition. If we don't think that functional organizations play a critical role in assessing consciousness, we have little reason to think computers could be conscious. 3. A complete functionalist theory of consciousness needs two distinct components: 1) a theory of what organizations are required for consciousness and 2) a theory of what it takes to implement an organization. An organization is an abstract pattern - it can be treated as a set of relational claims between the states of a system's various parts. Whether a system implements an organization depends on what parts it has, what properties belong to those parts, and how those properties depend on each other over time. There are multiple ways of interpreting the parts and states of any given physical system. Even if we know what relational claims define an organization, we need to know how it is permissible to carve up a system to assess whether the system implements that organization. 4. There are hypothetical systems that can be interpreted as implementing the organization of a human brain that are intuitively very unlikely to be conscious. See examples in section 4. 5. To be plausible, functionalism should be supplemented with additional constraints related to the integrity of the entities that can populate functional organizations. Philosophers have discussed the need for such constraints and some possible candidates, but there has been little exploration of the details of those constraints or what they mean for hypothetical artificial systems. There are many different possible constraints that would help invalidate the application of functional organizations to problematic systems in different ways. The thread tying together different proposals is that functional implementation is constrained by the cohesiveness or integrity of a system's component parts that play the roles in the implementations of functional organizations. Integrity constraints are independently plausible. 6.) Several plausible constraints would prevent digital systems from being conscious even if they implemented the same functional organization as a human brain, supposing that they did so with current techni...

Chicago's favorite gambler Brendan Shiller joins Ben to discuss a week's worth of news. Including… Public education. Will north siders go to venues south of Roosevelt Road? UFOs. How to discern truth from lies. Should Mayor Johnson have said nice things about Mayor Rahm? Should the city raise the minimum wage for restaurant workers? And more…See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

I enjoy random walks as much as any econ PhD out of the University of Chicago, but how am I supposed to handle the inability to control my Shatterpoint deck and dice variance?!?!?! (Like many of you, I am also still reeling from Fama sharing the Nobel Prize with Hansen and Shiller. What a wild world we live in.) In this episode, Matt leads a discussion as to how to think about randomness in Shatterpoint, how luck and skill are not mutually exclusive (thanks Richard Garfield), and how to leverage and enjoy both in your gaming. We focus on how Obi-Wan is an exemplary piece in smoothing out randomness in crucial aspects of your matches, but also how randomness can be skill-testing in a way that is extremely satisfying. You will enjoy this discussion. Here's a link to Richard Garfield's lecture on Skill vs. Luck in games. Join the Slack!!!

In this episode of The CreateU Experience Podcast, Arden Shiller discusses the importance of aligning values with clients and being creative in business coaching. Especially when working to build a successful company, Arden advises coaches to start with their existing relationships when enrolling new clients into their business. She explains how to discover and convey one's unique qualities to attract ideal clients. Brendan and Arden emphasize the significance of continuous learning, embracing the journey, and tapping into resources for personal development as an entrepreneur.Action Items:Discover oneself and reflect on past experiences to identify the ideal person you want to work with.When retaining clients, it's essential to provide value, understand their needs, and support them in achieving success.Continue to learn, tap into networks, podcasts, and gain knowledge from experienced individuals over time rather than focusing only on recent successes.Find Arden Shiller Online --> https://www.instagram.com/ardenshiller/Learn more about www.MyCoachAi.com:This is the official partner of The CreateU Experience podcast. The first-ever platform that consolidates what coaches and businesses need to get more customers. By automating the repetitive tasks, leveraging algorithms, and optimizing communication to better deliver courses, memberships, and 1-on-1 coaching - www.MyCoachAi.com is here to support your growth.

Mayor Johnson ousts the old school board and names a new one. Ben riffs. And on the eve of his participation in the World Series of Poker, Brendan Shiller returns to talk politics and a whole bunch of other things. Including…imposter syndrome, the MAGA 6, and Mayor Johnson's long game. Can the new mayor undo all the damage caused by his predecessors? Is poker a metaphor for politics? How Mayor Daley spent ten years before he got down to the business of selling off the city. And more…See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Matt Ehret joins us for a history lesson about Canada that we don't learn as Canadians, the deep controls in Canadian Politics, The British Empire, Banking, Synthetic Cults, Jesuits, Hope for the middle of Canada, and The Round Table Movement.   We also chat about the demographic crisis, Anomalous Pope and President deaths, Cultural Revolutions, The Inquiry, Shiller, Milner and Rhodes.   In the second half we get deeper into those that pull strings, Club of Rome, the Green Economy, how the Oligarchy keeps messing up, The Consciousness Wildcard, The fundamental truths they get wrong, Putin and the multi polar world, climate gate, Canada's Crown Land, Natural Law,  Israel being used as a pawn all along, and the slow crash into the new system.   See Matt's amazing work and books below!   https://risingtidefoundation.net/ https://canadianpatriot.org/   Matthew is a journalist and co-founder of the Rising Tide Foundation. He is the Editor-in-Chief of Canadian Patriot Review, Senior Fellow at the American University of Moscow and host of The Great Game on Rogue News. He has authored the book series “The Untold History of Canada” and the recently published book series “The Clash of the Two Americas.”     To gain access to the second half of show and our Plus feed for audio and podcast please clink the link http://www.grimericaoutlawed.ca/support.   For second half of video (when applicable and audio) go to our Substack and Subscribe. https://grimericaoutlawed.substack.com/ or to our Locals  https://grimericaoutlawed.locals.com/   Help support the show, because we can't do it without ya. If you value this content with 0 ads, 0 sponsorships, 0 breaks, 0 portals and links to corporate websites, please assist. Many hours of unlimited content for free. Thanks for listening!!   Support the show directly: https://www.patreon.com/grimerica Our Audiobook Site: www.adultbrain.ca Our Audiobook Youtube Channel:  https://www.youtube.com/@adultbrainaudiobookpublishing/videos Grimerica Media Youtube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@grimerica/featured Darren's book www.acanadianshame.ca Check out our next trip/conference/meetup - Contact at the Cabin www.contactatthecabin.com Other affiliated shows: https://www.13questionspodcast.com/ Our New Podcast - 13 Questions www.grimerica.ca The OG Grimerica Show www.Rokfin.com/Grimerica Our channel on free speech Rokfin Join the chat / hangout with a bunch of fellow Grimericans  Https://t.me.grimerica https://www.guilded.gg/chat/b7af7266-771d-427f-978c-872a7962a6c2?messageId=c1e1c7cd-c6e9-4eaf-abc9-e6ec0be89ff3   Get your Magic Mushrooms delivered from: Champignon Magique  Mushroom Spores, Spore Syringes, Best Spore Syringes,Grow Mushrooms Spores Lab Get Psychedelics online Leave a review on iTunes and/or Stitcher: https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/grimerica-outlawed http://www.stitcher.com/podcast/grimerica-outlawed Sign up for our newsletter http://www.grimerica.ca/news SPAM Graham = and send him your synchronicities, feedback, strange experiences and psychedelic trip reports!! graham@grimerica.com InstaGRAM https://www.instagram.com/the_grimerica_show_podcast/   Tweet Darren https://twitter.com/Grimerica  Purchase swag, with partial proceeds donated to the show www.grimerica.ca/swag Send us a postcard or letter http://www.grimerica.ca/contact/ ART Napolean Duheme's site http://www.lostbreadcomic.com/  MUSIC Tru Northperception, Felix's Site sirfelix.bandcamp.com

In this episode Julie shares the holistic health solutions she uses with her clients (and herself). We often think about a coach helping you with your work out. Julie widens the lens and works with her clients on their rest, recovery, sleep, stress, mobility and so much more.   Life Adventure Collective https://lindseyheiserman.com/lifeadventurecollective/ 1-1 Life Coaching https://lindseyheiserman.com/life-coaching/ Speaking https://lindseyheiserman.com/speaking/ Email lindsey@lindseyheiserman.com

Helen Shiller, age 75, was a six-term alderperson in Chicago's poor and oppressed communitieswhere she advocated for radical changes to police misconduct, poverty, and racism. Starting inthe early 1970s, Helen's activism took a page from the Black Panther Party's 10 Point Program.Fifty years later she concluded her book---Daring to Struggle, Daring to Win: Five Decades ofResistance in Chicago's Uptown Community—with the Party's 10 Point Guide to Action. Uponleaving the City Council, Helen teamed up with her lawyer son to create the West Side Centerfor Justice. She loves this stage of her life and finds great joy in metal welding.Connect with Helen:Email: hshiller@gmail.comBook: Daring to Struggle, Daring to Win: Five Decades of Resistance in Chicago's UptownCommunity (2022). See www.womenover70.com > Books By Women.

There are a lot of people who don't want to conform and would rather choose the path of creating and building a business that solves problems. In the economy we're heading into, the money and resources to build and market a business are going to be tight, but that doesn't mean you can't grow a thriving business.    If you're in a financial pinch, how can you still turn your entrepreneurial goals into a reality?   How do we get noticed and grow without thousands of followers or thousands of dollars for ads?    In this episode, entrepreneur and business coach, Arden Shiller talks about her journey, pivoting, and how to push through the challenges of running a business.  Three Things You'll Learn In This Episode    Why we have to tell stories Resonating with and relating to our audience is the key to growth. How do we pack our content with stories that connect with people?    The importance of creating a safe space for your audience Do we put off clients and block business opportunities by being too focused on selling the next offer?     The advantage of having a lower follower count Can you grow a profitable online business without 5,000 or more followers?    Guest Bio Arden Shiller is an entrepreneur, coach, and founder of Let's Grow Girls. Arden teaches business owners how to shift online, grow and scale their online business and also find inner peace and fulfillment. For more information, follow @ardenshiller  on Instagram.      Get Your FREE Copy Of ‘The Private Money Guide'  and ‘Mapping Out The Millionaire Mystery'.    Keep up with us every week on our FREE Live webinars for more conversations like this, and as a BONUS get our newest mini ebook instantly upon signing up! https://moneyschoolrei.com/wednesday-webinar (digital download).   Dive into money, mindset, and motivation videos on my YouTube Channel, and be sure to subscribe so you can be notified of our weekly LIVE streams. Find out about our next weekend workshop, and see what others are saying: https://www.moneyschooltraining.com/registration.

Brendan Shiller spent 20 or so years on the front lines for criminal justice reform as a lawyer in Chicago. And then he said the hell with it--and moved to Vegas to make his career as a poker player. The son of former Alderwoman Helen Shiller, Brendan makes his Ben Joravsky Show debut, talking about why he needed to take a break from Chicago. Also, how to reduce crime. And how to make money at the card table. Key advice--don't chase the cards. And...a few words about Chicago's casino.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This is our last Episode for 2022—we look forward to being back in mid-January. For this Special Episode, we're joined in conversation with the legendary activist and organizer Helen Shiller at the 57th Street Bookstore in Hyde Park, Chicago. In her new autobiography, Daring to Struggle, Daring to Win, Shiller captures a sense of what it means to engage in decades of justice work from anti-war and international solidarity to anti-racist organizing in Uptown, from the fight for affordable housing and against police violence to a 24-year career as an elected city councilor. With Justice and Freedom on our minds, Helen Shiller exemplifies the potential of an insider/outsider approach to social change. We wish you and your Beloveds a year of joy, justice, peace and love.

The reporters on the New York Times are on a one-day strike. Ben riffs. And former 46th ward Alderwoman Helen Shiller talks about her new book--Daring to Struggle, Daring to Win. It's about her life on the front lines of lefty and independent politics in Chicago since the 1970s. What a great conversation...Harold Washington, Richard Daley, the Jesus People and more. Does she have any regrets? You have to listen to find out...See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Join Helen Shiller and Laura Washington as they discuss Shiller's new biography, Daring to Struggle Daring to Win. Helen Shiller went from radical anti-war activist in Wisconsin, to a member of a collective of white allies of the Black Panther Party in Chicago, to an elected city council person who helped break the back of the racialized opposition to Harold Washington, Chicago's first Black mayor. Shiller participated, when few others did, in the historic fight against the gentrification of a unique economically and racially mixed Chicago community on the Northside. With insight into historic community organizing and political battles in Chicago from the 1970s through 2010, this book details numerous policy fights and conflicts in Chicago during this time, illuminating recurrent political themes and battles that remain relevant to this day. Join us for a limited-capacity in-person book launch event and discussion with Helen Shiller and Laura Washington about the struggle for justice then and now in Chicago. Masks and proof of vaccination are required for those attending in person. For those attending in-person doors will open at 6 PM. The event will also be livestreamed for those unable to attend in-person. Closed captioning will be available for the livestream. Order your copy of Daring to Struggle, Daring to Win here: https://www.haymarketbooks.org/books/1952-daring-to-struggle-daring-to-win ———————————————————————————————— Speakers: Helen Shiller, raised by migrant Jewish parents, was radicalized by the anti-war and civil rights movements. Shiller was in a collective of whites aligned with the Black Panther Party in Chicago. Beginning in 1987, Shiller was a radical Chicago alderperson for 24 years. She is the author of Daring to Struggle, Daring to Win. Laura S. Washington is a Chicago Tribune contributing columnist and political analyst for ABC 7, Chicago's ABC-owned station. She is the former editor and publisher of The Chicago Reporter, served as deputy press secretary to Chicago Mayor Harold Washington. Her work and commentary has been widely featured in the national media, including Time Magazine, the Associated Press, New York Times, NBC Nightly News, MNSBC, PBS News Hour and the BBC. Washington is a frequent lecturer and moderator for local and national audiences. Twitter: @MediaDervish Watch the live event recording: https://youtu.be/03ReVPRb9Bc Buy books from Haymarket: www.haymarketbooks.org Follow us on Soundcloud: soundcloud.com/haymarketbooks

Episode 103: Arden Shiller is an online business coach who helps you grow your online business intentionally & effectively without burning out. She helps you sit with the stillness & embrace the space during the in betweens. Arden grew up outside of Philadelphia, PA. She was a kindergarten teacher for a few years before fully pivoting into an online fitness coach. She was able to grow & scale & sell her fitness company, which is why her goal is to coach other coaches on doing the same! In this episode she is going to share her journey and remind us how decision-making is crucial as you step up as an entrepreneur. Decisions can push you up or down, but you´re not going to know until you make it. You can commit to your growth and take risks even if that moment the decision doesn't make sense. You can step into your power and build your dream life! To connect more with Arden, you can find her: @ardenshiller www.letsgrowgirlsbizcoaching.com Welcome to The Happy Positive Energy Game, where I teach you how you can live your life to the fullest, align your mindset to success, inspire and motivate you and guide you to simple & easy hacks to changing things up in your world that I've learnt from entrepreneurship, mentors and world leaders, as well as the many failures and successes I've had along the way (to save you from making them too!) Did you love this episode? Drop a share on your socials and tag the socials! @thehappypositiveenergygame @iamlukeanning Instagram | Facebook Community | LinkedIn | Featured Podcasts | Work With Me | YouTube