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Interview recorded - 30th of May, 2025On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of welcoming back David Rosenberg. David is the Founder & President of Rosenberg Research & associates.During our conversation we spoke about his current outlook on markets, how the economy could already be in a recession, tariffs, rebalancing of trade, corporate margins, stock market and more. I hope you enjoy!0:00 - Introduction1:53- Current Economic Outlook?2:39 - Tariffs6:35 - Rebalancing trade15:23 - Corporate margin issue?18:47 - Long bond issue?21:42 - Stock market24:02 - US underperforming25:22 - Assets David currently likes34:02 - One message to takeaway?David Rosenberg is the Founder and President of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc., an economic consulting firm he established in January 2020. He and his team have as their top priority providing investors with analysis and insights to help them make well-informed investment decisions.Prior to Rosenberg Research, David was Chief Economist & Strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. from 2009 to 2019. From 2002 to 2009, he was Chief North American Economist at Merrill Lynch in New York, during which he was consistently ranked in the Institutional Investor All-Star analyst rankings. Prior thereto, he was Chief Economist and Strategist for Merrill Lynch Canada, based out of Toronto, where he and his team placed first in the Brendan Wood survey of Canadian economists for ten years in a row.Mr. Rosenberg is a frequent contributor to most major financial newspapers and publications in North America and makes regular TV appearances in the financial media. He received both a Bachelor of Arts and Masters of Arts degree in Economics from the University of Toronto.David Rosenberg - Website - https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/Twitter - https://twitter.com/EconguyRosieArticle - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/lament-bear-david-rosenberg-tpxzcLinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-rosenberg-40800219b/WTFinance -Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfniTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas
As worldwide tariff uncertainty persists and US-China tensions continue to escalate, are President Trump's trade policies speeding the economy into recession?For guidance, we turn to highly-respected economist & award-winning researcher David Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com_____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.
In this explosive episode of Soar Financially, we welcome Robert Embree, Senior Economist at Rosenberg Research, to unpack the growing economic storm. From Trump's tariff shocks to the global slowdown, Robert shares what most analysts are still missing.We break down the recession probabilities, a shaky bond market, energy-driven inflation, disinflation, and why gold is the only asset standing tall. Is the Fed too late again? Will capital flee U.S. markets for good? And what's really driving the dollar's decline?Robert also discusses how Canada's political shift could alter trade dynamics—and why the labor market delay might be over.#Recession2025 #TariffWar #GoldRally------------
Guy Adami and Dan Nathan are joined by David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research, to discuss notable economic developments and their implications. The episode covers the Federal Reserve's recent stance on monetary policy, adjustments in GDP and inflation forecasts, and the potential onset of stagflation. Rosenberg elaborates on the impact of tariffs, fiscal policies, and the prolonged economic uncertainty on consumer behavior and corporate CapEx. He also highlights historical parallels and the prospects of a recession, while offering his perspective on inflation trends and the equity market's current outlook. — FOLLOW US YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia Instagram: @riskreversalmedia Twitter: @RiskReversal LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media
Disclosures and Risk Information Investments, commentary, and opinions are solely those of the speakers and may not be reflective of any Sprott entity or affiliate. Forward-looking language should not be construed as predictive. While third-party sources are believed to be reliable, there is no guarantee as to their accuracy or timeliness. This information does not constitute an offer or solicitation and may not be relied upon or considered to be the rendering of tax, legal, accounting or professional advice.Relative to other sectors, precious metals and natural resources investments have higher headline risk and are more sensitive to changes in economic data, political or regulatory events, and underlying commodity price fluctuations. Risks related to extraction, storage and liquidity should also be considered.Gold and precious metals are referred to with terms of art like store of value, safe haven and safe asset. These terms should not be construed to guarantee any form of investment safety. While “safe” assets like gold, Treasuries, money market funds and cash generally do not carry a high risk of loss relative to other asset classes, any asset may lose value, which may involve the complete loss of invested principal.Rosenberg Research Free 30 Day Sign Up https://hub.rosenbergresearch.com/fre...Rosenberg Research: https://rosenbergresearch.com/david-r...WAIVER & DISCLAIMERIf you register for this webinar/interview you agree to the following: This webinar is provided for information purposes only. All opinions expressed by the individuals in this webinar/interview are solely the individuals' opinions and neither reflect the opinions, nor are made on behalf of, Bloor Street Capital Inc. Presenters will not be providing legal or financial advice to any webinar participants or any person watching a recorded version of the webinar. The investing ideas and strategies discussed on this webinar/interview are not recommendations to buy or sell any security and are not intended to provide any investment advise of any kind, but are made available solely for educational and informational purposes. Investments or strategies mentioned in this webinar/interview may not be suitable for your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any investment strategy discussed in this webinar/interview. All webinar participants or viewers of a recorded version of this webinar should obtain independent legal and financial advice. All webinar participants accept and grant permission to Bloor Street Capital Inc. and its representatives in connection with such recording. The information contained in this webinar/interview is current as of January, 2025 the date of this webinar/interview, unless otherwise indicated, and is provided for information purposes only. Bloor Street Capital was paid a fee for this Interview.
David Rosenberg believes that the investment community has collectively lost their minds, as they continue to pile in and double-down on a small handful of tech stocks whose valuations are nowhere near reflecting reality. David sees striking similarities between today's market and the dot com bubble and he thinks that when the dust settles, investors who kept their wits about them and didn't buy into the hype could be well-positioned to take advantage of bargain basement prices.Rosenberg Research: https://rosenbergresearch.comFollow Jesse Day on X: https://x.com/jessebdayCommodity Culture on Youtube: https://youtube.com/c/CommodityCulture
Disclosures and Risk Information Investments, commentary, and opinions are solely those of the speakers and may not be reflective of any Sprott entity or affiliate. Forward-looking language should not be construed as predictive. While third-party sources are believed to be reliable, there is no guarantee as to their accuracy or timeliness. This information does not constitute an offer or solicitation and may not be relied upon or considered to be the rendering of tax, legal, accounting or professional advice. Relative to other sectors, precious metals and natural resources investments have higher headline risk and are more sensitive to changes in economic data, political or regulatory events, and underlying commodity price fluctuations. Risks related to extraction, storage and liquidity should also be considered. Gold and precious metals are referred to with terms of art like store of value, safe haven and safe asset. These terms should not be construed to guarantee any form of investment safety. While “safe” assets like gold, Treasuries, money market funds and cash generally do not carry a high risk of loss relative to other asset classes, any asset may lose value, which may involve the complete loss of invested principal. Agenda 00:00:00 Intro 00:09:26 Is Inflation Heating Up 00:22:47 Interest Rates & Yield Curve 00:28:27 Where I Got My Call Wrong 00:30:45 Does Yield Go To 5.5% 00:34:40 Debt & Deficit 00:39:18 Interest Cost Exploding 00:40:38 Stock Market Valuations 00:52:12 Can S&P Drop 50% 1:00:20 This Keeps Me Up At Nite 1:00:40 Canadian Politics 1:04:45 Canadian Economy 1:06:30 Trudeau Only PM No Growth 1:07:44 Canadian Dollar Not Good 1:11:54 How To Position 1:19:37 Why I Love Gold 1:20:58 Rosenberg Research 1:22:14 Conclusion Bloor Street Capital Inc. Waiver and Disclaimer If you register for this webinar/interview you agree to the following: This webinar is provided for information purposes only. All opinions expressed by the individuals in this webinar/interview are solely the individuals' opinions and neither reflect the opinions, nor are made on behalf of, Bloor Street Capital Inc. Presenters will not be providing legal or financial advice to any webinar participants or any person watching a recorded version of the webinar. The investing ideas and strategies discussed on this webinar/interview are not recommendations to buy or sell any security and are not intended to provide any investment advise of any kind, but are made available solely for educational and informational purposes. Investments or strategies mentioned in this webinar/interview may not be suitable for your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any investment strategy discussed in this webinar/interview. All webinar participants or viewers of a recorded version of this webinar should obtain independent legal and financial advice. All webinar participants accept and grant permission to Bloor Street Capital Inc. and its representatives in connection with such recording. The information contained in this webinar/interview is current as of January, 2025 the date of this webinar/interview, unless otherwise indicated, and is provided for information purposes only. Bloor Street Capital was paid a fee for this Interview.
For the 50th episode of The Unlimited Podcast, we welcome back David Rosenberg, Founder and President of Rosenberg Research. David founded Rosenberg Research in January 2020 after an illustrious, three-decade career on Wall Street and Bay Street as an economist and market strategist. With the start of 2025 and Trump's recent inauguration, Brian seeks to uncover David's best views and thoughts on the markets, the economy, Trump's proposed tariffs and the like. In other words, what should investors be thinking and doing in 2025? This is a "must-listen" episode for anyone seeking opportunity amid uncertainty! A video of the entire interview is accessible below. https://youtu.be/tTgpC_rq27s Timestamps 0:00 Disclaimer & Intro 03:16 Uncertainty for 2025 11:22 David's thoughts on U.S. valuations 24:55 Expectations for U.S. equities 34:02 Why is Canada a good place to be? 47:43 Should investors focus on convert CAD to USD? 53:40 Rosie's best advice for 2025 57:11 Outro
David Rosenberg is the founder and president of Rosenberg Research, an economic and financial market consulting firm he established in January 2020. Dave provides advice to 2,600 clients, both retail and institutional, across 40 countries. Prior to creating his own company, David was chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates from 2009 to 2019. Prior to that, from 2000 to 2009, he was at Merrill Lynch, where for the first two years he was chief Canadian economist and strategist based out of Toronto; for the last seven he was Chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch in New York, where he was consistently ranked in top three of Wall Street economists polled by the annual Institutional Investors survey. David is a frequent contributor to most major financial newspapers and publications in North America and makes regular TV appearances in the financial media. He received both a BA and MA in economics from the University of Toronto.
With equity markets soaring in 2024 and inflation risks looming, are we heading for a major correction? Rosenberg Research's Dylan Smith joins James Connor to break down 2025's critical market and economic trends, from bubbly markets and the Fed's Powell pivot to the stark contrast between U.S. growth and Canada's vulnerabilities. Explore how Trump's tariff policies, shifting central bank strategies, and global uncertainties could reshape the financial landscape of 2025. Investment Concerns? Get a free portfolio review with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors at https://bit.ly/420UWlC Chapters: 0:48 - Why Markets Reacted to Powell's Hawkish Cut 4:18 - Inflation Fears: Is the Fed Overreacting? 9:28 - What's Driving the U.S. Economy's Resilience? 13:07 - Is the Fed Making Another Policy Error? 15:16 - The Powell Pivot: Is It Political? 16:49 - Canada's Economic Struggles in 2025 18:37 - Could U.S. Tariffs Devastate Canada's Economy? 21:39 - U.S. vs. Canada: How Dependent Are Their Economies on Exports? 23:22 - Immigration's Surprising Impact on Canada's GDP 27:38 - Rising Unemployment in Canada: What's Behind It? 29:52 - Is Canada Headed for a Recession in 2025? 33:27 - Why the Canadian Dollar is at a 20-Year Low 35:41 - Canada's Debt Advantage Over the U.S. 38:20 - Key Takeaways: Risks for the U.S. and Canada in 2025 Connect with us online: Website: https://www.wealthion.com X: https://www.x.com/wealthion Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/wealthionofficial/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/wealthion/ #Wealthion #Wealth #Finance #Investing #Economy #MarketCrash #Inflation #Stocks #FederalReserve #EconomicTrends #FinancialPlanning #MoneyManagement #EconomicOutlook #StockMarket #FinancialFreedom #USEconomy #CanadianEconomy #Tariffs #PowellPivot #MarketInsights #InvestmentStrategies #2025Economy ____________________________________ IMPORTANT NOTE: The information, opinions, and insights expressed by our guests do not necessarily reflect the views of Wealthion. They are intended to provide a diverse perspective on the economy, investing, and other relevant topics to enrich your understanding of these complex fields. While we value and appreciate the insights shared by our esteemed guests, they are to be viewed as personal opinions and not as investment advice or recommendations from Wealthion. These opinions should not replace your own due diligence or the advice of a professional financial advisor. We strongly encourage all of our audience members to seek out the guidance of a financial advisor who can provide advice based on your individual circumstances and financial goals. Wealthion has a distinguished network of advisors who are available to guide you on your financial journey. However, should you choose to seek guidance elsewhere, we respect and support your decision to do so. The world of finance and investment is intricate and diverse. It's our mission at Wealthion to provide you with a variety of insights and perspectives to help you navigate it more effectively. We thank you for your understanding and your trust. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
On this episode of Animal Spirits: Talk Your Book, Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson are joined by David Rosenberg, Founder and President of Rosenberg Research, to discuss David's macro track record, thoughts on where the economy is today, what Powell has gotten wrong, why the momentum trade has been working, David's economic views for 2025, policy uncertainty moving forward, and more. Find complete show notes on our blogs... Ben Carlson's A Wealth of Common Sense Michael Batnick's The Irrelevant Investor Feel free to shoot us an email at animalspirits@thecompoundnews.com with any feedback, questions, recommendations, or ideas for future topics of conversation. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The material discussed has been provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as legal or investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security or strategy. The investment strategy and themes discussed herein may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial situation. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable though its accuracy is not guaranteed. Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/ Important Disclosures from VanEck: https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/talk-your-book-vaneck-disclosures Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
As 2024 comes to a close, we invite you to reflect on the year with us through some of the most memorable quotes and highlights from The Unlimited Podcast. In this brief, 7-minute recap, you'll hear standout moments from each of our guests, Brian's insightful reflections, and a few laughs along the way. Relive the best of 2024 with us! Let's Go! Stay tuned for another great year of The Unlimited Podcast in 2025, kicking off in January with the economic outlook from David Rosenberg, Founder & President of Rosenberg Research. See you on the flipside.
Interview recorded - 12th of December, 2024On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of welcoming back David Rosenberg. David is the Founder & President of Rosenberg Research & associates.During our conversation we spoke about 2024, what David was surprised about in the year, the lament of a bear, what to expect in 2025, tight credit spread, secular shift in bond, where David is bullish and more. I hope you enjoy!0:00 - Introduction1:21 - David's year review2:48 - Lament of a bear8:35 - Earnings remain strong14:55 - Credit spreads tight24:33 - Secular shift in bonds?30:30 - Continued rate cuts?35:49 - Where is David bullish?41:27 - One message to takeawayDavid Rosenberg is the Founder and President of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc., an economic consulting firm he established in January 2020. He and his team have as their top priority providing investors with analysis and insights to help them make well-informed investment decisions.Prior to Rosenberg Research, David was Chief Economist & Strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. from 2009 to 2019. From 2002 to 2009, he was Chief North American Economist at Merrill Lynch in New York, during which he was consistently ranked in the Institutional Investor All-Star analyst rankings. Prior thereto, he was Chief Economist and Strategist for Merrill Lynch Canada, based out of Toronto, where he and his team placed first in the Brendan Wood survey of Canadian economists for ten years in a row.Mr. Rosenberg is a frequent contributor to most major financial newspapers and publications in North America and makes regular TV appearances in the financial media. He received both a Bachelor of Arts and Masters of Arts degree in Economics from the University of Toronto.David Rosenberg - Website - https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/Twitter - https://twitter.com/EconguyRosieArticle - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/lament-bear-david-rosenberg-tpxzcLinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-rosenberg-40800219b/WTFinance -Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfniTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas
Dan and Guy are joined by David Rosenberg, the founder of Rosenberg Research. They cover his recent 'Lament of a Bear' report, where Rosenberg reflects on his stock market predictions, acknowledging the unexpected impact of AI and generative technologies on market performance. They delve into the significant rise in market multiples driven by growth in AI, especially since May 2023 with Nvidia's strong performance. Rosenberg explains the potential overpricing of stocks, influenced by high investor confidence and passive investing trends. He also discusses the implications of current and future interest rate environments, inflation expectations, and the role of the Federal Reserve in shaping market outlooks. The conversation touches on the concept of equity risk premium and the potential risks of market corrections. Rosenberg shares his cautious stance and emphasizes the importance of staying informed on economic cycles and reading historical market analyses. Subscribe to our newsletter: https://riskreversalmedia.beehiiv.com/subscribe — About the Show: On The Tape is a weekly podcast with CNBC Fast Money's Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses. They're offering takes on the biggest market-moving headlines of the week, trade ideas, in-depth analysis, tips and advice. Each episode, they are joined by prominent Wall Street participants to help viewers make smarter investment decisions. Bear market, bull market, recession, inflation or deflation… we're here to help guide your portfolio into the green. Risk Reversal brings you years of experience from former Wall Street insiders trading stocks to experts in the commodity market. — Check out our show notes here See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/onthetape. — Shoot us an email at OnTheTape@riskreversal.com with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @OnTheTapePod on Twitter or @riskreversalmedia on Threads — We're on social: Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow Danny Moses @DMoses34 on Twitter Follow Liz Thomas @LizThomasStrat on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.
Rosenberg Research President David Rosenberg discusses his outlook for the Fed and upcoming rate decisions. He speaks with Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
David Rosenberg, Founder of Rosenberg Research, issues a bold warning about an impending market bubble burst, citing “stupid expensive” valuations as markets buy in the impact of Trump's policy agenda. He joins Anthony Scaramucci in this exclusive post-election interview to explain why inflation, political polarization, and soaring debt levels could destabilize the economy, leaving investors exposed to serious risk. Rosenberg advises shifting to safe-haven assets like gold and bonds to protect against the fallout he sees as inevitable. He also discusses how geopolitical conflicts, particularly with Iran and U.S.-China tensions, add further volatility to an already uncertain market. A must-watch Speak Up conversation! Investment Concerns? Get a free portfolio review with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors at https://bit.ly/3YKy5rn Chapters: 2:09 - Why Is the Market So Bullish Post-Election? 8:56 - Reaction of Bond Markets and Inflation Concerns 12:14 - Trump's Policies and Potential Market & Economic Impact 15:44 - Can Trump End The Fed's Independence? 18:12 - Geopolitical Risks Under Trump: Iran, Ukraine, Israel, and U.S.-China Relations 23:22 - Audience Question: Safe-Haven Assets For Volatile Markets? 27:18 - Audience Question: Key Commodities to Watch? 29:55 - Audience Question: Crypto Exuberance After Trump Win Justified? 32:16 - Audience Question: How To Prepare for a U.S. Debt Crisis? 34:24 - Audience Question: Impact of Weakening Global Economic Cooperation? 37:02 - Audience Question: Political Polarization and Economic Stability 42:59 - Was It A Vote For Donald Trump Or A Vote Against Kamala Harris? Connect with us online: Website: https://www.wealthion.com X: https://www.x.com/wealthion Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/wealthionofficial/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/wealthion/ #Wealthion #Wealth #Finance #Investing #Economy #MarketBubble #DavidRosenberg #AnthonyScaramucci #Inflation #Geopolitics #SafeHavenAssets #PostElection #StockMarket #Gold #Bonds #Trump #USChina #Iran #FinancialAdvice Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In episode 203, David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, joined Julia to discuss the current economic landscape and his outlook for the future. ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨ Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond's yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond's YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account. In this episode, Rosenberg challenged the prevailing optimism about the U.S. economy, arguing that the apparent strength in GDP numbers is largely due to unsustainable government spending. He highlighted discrepancies between official data and other economic indicators, suggesting that the economy may be weaker than it appears. Rosenberg expressed concern about the stock market's high valuations, drawing parallels to previous market bubbles. He warned of potential risks, including a possible recession in 2025, and discussed the dangers of excessive exposure to equities, particularly among older investors. Rosenberg advocated for a more defensive investment strategy, recommending an increased allocation to bonds and gold, while maintaining a cautious approach to equities. Throughout the conversation, he emphasized the importance of understanding historical patterns and the risks of "new era" thinking in financial markets. Links: https://rosenbergresearch.com/ https://x.com/EconguyRosie Timestamps: 00:23 Introduction and overview of current economic situation 01:03 Discussion on GDP growth and survey data divergence 02:57 Analysis of the Fed's Beige Book and economic indicators 05:19 Impact of government spending on GDP numbers 08:18 Discussion on fiscal policy and upcoming election 10:49 Analysis of government employment data and labor market 13:31 Long-term effects of fiscal policy 15:15 Lack of capital spending cycle and global economic slowdown 17:37 Diffusion analysis of the US economy 19:54 Potential fiscal policy changes after the election 21:10 Discussion on potential recession and historical comparisons 25:15 Analysis of interest rates and debt service costs 27:43 Lags in economic policy effects 31:35 Job report revisions and data reliability issues 35:43 Stock market valuation and earnings growth 39:21 Risks in current stock market valuations 42:26 Discussion on portfolio rebalancing and asset allocation 46:40 Concerns about passive index investing 50:01 Potential impact of stock market decline on the economy 54:15 Investment strategy and portfolio allocation 57:22 Approach to investing in bonds 01:00:45 Total return expectations for bonds 01:02:27 Parting thoughts
2023 was the year of the recession that wasn't. 2024 is looking to be the year of the hard landing that wasn't. How is 2025 shaping up to look like? For guidance we turn to highly-respected economist & award-winning researcher David Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research. David is very concerned that investors, especially the 70 million Baby Boomers, are "all in" the markets. Boomer portfolios are 60% allocated to stocks. David thinks it should be half(!) of that. He predicts that when we enter a bear market next -- which he thinks is nearer than most expect -- a brutal consumer recession will ensue. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bearmarket #recession #deflation --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support
We have not YET seen a recession in Canada or the U.S., at least from a “headline” GDP standpoint. But on a per-capita/ex-immigration basis, Canada is already there...and the U.S. may not be far behind. That's what Dylan Smith, vice president and senior economist at Rosenberg Research, told me for this week's MoneyShow MoneyMasters Podcast segment, recorded on-site at our recent Toronto conference.In Dylan's view, stimulus checks from the U.S. government padded consumer spending during and after the pandemic. But the savings Americans accumulated have now been “spent down” – leaving spending from high-end consumers as one of the only supports left for the economy. Meanwhile, “distortions” and “false assumptions” about the strength of the labor market are concerning...and investors “don't appreciate how much slack is opening up for the economy.” In Dylan's take, central banks in both the U.S. and Canada will continue to cut interest rates well into next year to combat emerging weakness. But it may come too late for North America's twin economic powerhouses.We then pivot to a discussion of what investors should do in response. Dylan reveals the one asset class he is a “perma-bull” on…which foreign markets look more attractive due to their undervaluation and secular growth outlook...and what to do if you've reaped big gains on tech stocks in a strong year for the Nasdaq. For more on-site insights from experts like Dylan, join us for the 2024 MoneyShow Orlando, scheduled for Oct. 17-19 at the Omni Orlando Resort at ChampionsGate. Click here to register: https://orlandomoneyshow.com/?scode=061246
David Rosenberg joins Anthony Scaramucci on Speak Up to warn and explain why a recession is looming. Highlighting the dangers of a widespread “soft landing” complacency and overexposure to equities, David, the Founder and President of Rosenberg Research, draws parallels to past crises and explains why current conditions are setting investors up for a major downturn. Together, they discuss the risks of the Federal Reserve's policy mistakes, rising unemployment, and why the past decade's passive investing boom could be the next bubble to burst. Investment Concerns? Get a free portfolio review with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.wealthion.com/free This interview is sponsored by BetterHelp. Give online therapy a try and get on your way to being your best self at https://www.betterhelp.com/Wealthion Chapters: 0:32 - David Rosenberg's Background and Career Path 4:20 - Spotting Economic Crises Early: Lessons from 2007-2008 10:14 - Fed Policy, Interest Rates, and Market Vulnerabilities 21:53 - Recession Is Staring Us In The Face 30:02 - Audience Question: Defensive Sector Recommendations 31:36 - Audience Question: Risk of Stagflation? 34:01 - Audience Question: Fiscal Spending and Inflation? 36:33 - Audience Question: Emerging Markets Opportunities? 38:39 - Audience Question: David's View on Gold? 41:06 - Impact of US Election Results on the Economy Connect with us online: Website: https://www.wealthion.com X: https://www.x.com/wealthion Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/wealthionofficial/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/wealthion/ #DavidRosenberg #AnthonyScaramucci #RecessionWarning #Recession #Economy #Finance #Investing #Markets #Fed #FinancialCrisis #InvestmentStrategies #Gold #Wealthion #Wealth Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Dylan Smith, VP and Senior Economist at Rosenberg Research, joins Wealthion's Andrew Brill to discuss the current state of the economy, the Fed's next moves, and whether a recession is inevitable. Dylan also delves into the normalization of the post-pandemic labor market, the divergence between old-economy and green-economy commodities, risks and opportunities in markets like U.S. Treasuries, and much more. Investment Concerns? Get a free portfolio review with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.wealthion.com This episode is sponsored by BetterHelp. Give online therapy a try at https://www.betterhelp.com/Wealthion and get on your way to being your best self. Timestamps: 00:56 - Fed Strategy, Economic Outlook & Labor Market Insights 09:03 - Can We Avoid a Recession? 12:02 - Is the Fed Too Late in Cutting Rates? 17:05 - Consumer Sentiment & the Stock Market Wealth Effect 26:38 - Opportunities in Treasuries & Safe Investment Strategies 31:23 - Recession-Proof Stocks & Thoughts on the Real Estate Sector 40:24 - Nvidia Earnings, AI Hype & Dylan's Outlook on Global Commodities Connect with us online: Website: https://www.wealthion.com X: https://www.x.com/wealthion Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/wealthionofficial/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/wealthion/ #Fed #EconomicOutlook #Recession #InterestRates #StockMarket #Investing #Treasuries #RealEstate #AI #Nvidia #Commodities #FinancialMarkets #MarketAnalysis #Economy #stocks #wealth #Finance #Money #Wealthion
In the latest episode of Market Overtime, David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research joins Oliver Renick to discuss why he thinks the stock market is overvalued, why A.I. reminds him of the Dotcom bubble, and why investing in Gold and bonds is a better play than stocks currently. #stocks #stockmarket #ai #artificialintelligence #financialmarket #gold #bonds #investing #finance #rates #rate #treasuries #financial 0:00-1:55 Introduction 1:56-3:42 Dollar Falls below 100 in next 12 months? 3:43-5:25 What Happens if Dollar Continues to Fall 5:26-10:30 "Don't Put All Your Eggs in One Basket" 10:31-13:50 Income Focused Strategies 13:51-19:35 Bitcoin, A.I. and the "Bubble" Word 19:36-25:00 Gauging Risk Levels 25:01-28:55 Recession Probability ======== Schwab Network ======== Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribe Download the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-... Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-... Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/19192... Watch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplu... Watch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-net... Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
In this episode of Wealthion, Andrew Brill sits down with Dylan Smith, Vice President and Senior Economist at Rosenberg Research, to delve into the current state of the economy. They discuss the signals of an impending economic downturn, the anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and the broader implications of these changes for both investors and the general public. Dylan provides a detailed analysis of inflation trends, labor market shifts, and the potential political impacts on fiscal policy. TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 - Powell's Next Moves 00:49 - Introduction of Dylan Smith 01:19 - Current State of Economy 02:24 - Economic Data Revisions 04:44 - Inflation and Interest Rates 05:48 - Unemployment Importance 07:21 - Labor Market Easing 08:17 - Interest Rates Discussion 09:15 - Political Implications 11:14 - Election Impact on Inflation 15:39 - CPI and PPI Expectations 17:13 - Rate Cut Hints 21:18 - Market Reactions 33:02 - Market Volatility Concerns 39:56 - US National Debt
Join James Connor as he sits down with renowned economist David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research to discuss the dark clouds looming over the US and Canadian economies. Despite recent highs in the S&P and Nasdaq, Rosenberg warns of imminent economic downturns that could have devastating effects. From rising delinquency rates in consumer credit to the bursting of the Canadian housing bubble, tune in to discover a what lies ahead for our economy and your portfolio. TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 - Introduction 01:00 - David Rosenberg's View on US Economy 04:00 - GDP Growth and Consumer Behavior 08:45 - Impact of Government Spending 12:04 - Housing Market Analysis 14:39 - Federal Reserve Policies 16:56 - Potential US Recession 18:52 - Canadian Economy Deep Dive 28:22 - Canadian Housing Bubble 30:02 - Canadian Politics and Economy 33:07 - Stimulating the Economy 36:12 - Investment Strategies for the Future 41:22 - Closing
MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome back, Rosenberg Research founder David Rosenberg. They discuss, the stock market and why David believes the breadth isn't there, and the outperformance of SPX is really just three out of the 500 stocks in the index. https://bit.ly/3VRJtBA ⚫ Check Out Rosenberg Research: https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/ ⚫ Follow David Rosenberg on X: https://www.twitter.com/econguyrosie
David Rosenberg warns of potential economic turmoil due to surging productivity in most sectors but a ticking time bomb in construction and a growing wealth gap. On this episode of ‘Speak Up with Anthony Scaramucci,' David Rosenberg, Founder and President of Rosenberg Research, joins to discuss the issues facing the economy. Rosenberg discusses the unusual productivity surge in the U.S. economy, while highlighting significant risks in the construction sector that could lead to widespread layoffs. He also sheds light on the economic disparity between high-income earners and the average worker, raising concerns about the long-term implications for economic stability and political dynamics. Timestamps: 0:57 – Introduction 1:56 – Fed Rate Cuts Discussion 6:00 – Housing Market Dynamics 9:29 – Economic Disparity & Wealth Gap 10:45 – Impact of Fiscal Policies 17:33 – Treasury Market & Inflation 20:47 – Recession Risks & Economic Outlook 21:07 – Stock Market Valuations & Risks 24:11 – Speculative Market Behaviors 25:47 – Long-Term Investment Strategies 25:59 – Closing
Give us Your Feedback.David Rosenberg is bullish for the long term when it comes to the gold market and he argues that while gold used to correlate with commodities and real interest rates, it is now diverging into a category of its own: money with no counterparty risk. David also gives his outlook on the broad commodities market, uranium, energy, and much more. Rosenberg Research: https://www.rosenbergresearch.com30-day Free Trial (mention Commodity Culture): https://hub.rosenbergresearch.com/free-trialEmail: information@rosenbergresearch.comFollow Dave on X: https://x.com/EconguyRosie Follow Jesse Day on X: https://twitter.com/jessebdayCommodity Culture on Youtube: https://youtube.com/c/CommodityCulture
Dave Rosenberg, president of Rosenberg Research, says that anyone believing a no-landing scenario believes in pixie dust, and that investors are mistaking record highs on the stock market for a booming economy. He sees the economy as cooling off, and warning signs building, and notes that the Federal Reserve is too focused on lagging indicators, but the trouble they have been guarding against is still coming. Meanwhile, Rosenberg says investors aren't getting paid to take on equity risk, so he is happy in being in money markets and bonds while he waits for conditions to change. Also on the show, Stephen Dover, chief market strategist at Franklin Templeton — head of the Franklin Templeton Institute — digs into his research on just how much election results actually matter for the market, and Will Rhind, chief executive officer at GraniteShares, talks in the Market Call about investing in disruptive stocks.
In this Weekly Market Recap, Andrew Brill reflects on the interviews that took place on Wealthion over the past week in another Wealthion Weekly Market Recap! This week, Peter Boockvar, of Bleakly Financial and The Boock Report, discussed the economic pressure points of high rates, housing challenges, and economic shifts in the U.S., along with investment trends and projections he's observing. On Speak Up, Anthony Scaramucci spoke with Staci Warden.On Next Week on the Trading Floor, Jon Najarian shared his thoughts on The Fed keeping rates unchanged and mentioned three new stocks to look out for, as well as unusual options trading activity. Additionally, Dylan Smith of Rosenberg Research spoke to us about earnings trends this week and what he's seeing in terms of an economic slowdown. He also touched on what lies ahead for consumers and businesses, the rising debt, and the impact this year's election could have on the economy. With artificial intelligence being all the talk again this earnings season, AI expert Sol Rashidi explains how AI can revolutionize financial advising. Finally, Staci Warden, the CEO of the Alogrand Foundation, spoke about blockchain's impact on transaction costs and security on Speak Up with Anthony Scaramucci. We are partnering with SALT to offer our Wealthion community an exclusive opportunity to access a full day of top-tier financial insights and networking opportunities — all from the comfort of your own home and at a fraction of the cost of attending in person. Learn more here: https://wealthion.com/lp/salt24conference/ TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 - Intro 00:52 - Stubborn Inflation & Debt Crisis | Peter Boockvar, Bleakly Financial Group Full Interview: https://youtu.be/ajmL_0o2848 16:06 - Is the Economic Downturn Just Beginning? | Dylan Smith, Rosenberg Research Full Interview: https://youtu.be/e7tuhy4QMJA 27:09 - Next Week on the Trading Floor | Jon Najarian Full Interview: https://youtu.be/0co4bLDTjS4 35:35 - Unlocking AI's in Jobs, Investing, and the Future | Sol Rashidi Full Interview: https://youtu.be/Am9KgxaR4X0 45:19 - Speak up with Anthony Scaramucci | Staci Warden Full Interview: https://youtu.be/PknexOU2sh0 1:05:19 - Closing
Today's guest expert just released a warning that the official jobs data reported by the government are "overstated by historical proportions" And when the downward revisions get released, it will shock both the Federal Reserve and the financial markets. For the details on this, we turn to the man who wrote the report, highly-respected economist & award-winning researcher David Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research. Visit David at https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/ WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #jobs #recession2024 #interestrates
In this episode, Andrew Brill is joined by Dylan Smith, Vice President & Senior Economist at Rosenberg Research. Andrew and Dylan will dive into the aftermath of the recent Fed meeting, their latest decision to not cut rates, the unexpected twists in Q1 earnings, and where the economy appears to be headed to next. Dylan will also share his insights on: * Why inflation is hovering above 3% * The rise of gold and Bitcoin following massive debt concerns * The slowdown in wage growth and how it's impacting consumer spending * The Fed's shifting stance on rate cuts * How to protect your wealth amidst economic uncertainty Timestamps: 0:00 - Introduction & Wealthion Conference Announcement 0:53 - Dylan Smith's Take on the Current Economy 3:00 - Nonfarm Payrolls & Economic Weakness Beneath the Surface 8:43 - Jerome Powell's Inflation Outlook 10:11 - Inflation Stubbornness & Service Industry Pressures 15:47 - Earnings Season Trends & Economic Slowdown 18:35 - Inflation, Wage Growth & Real Income Catch-Up 21:11 - The Fed's Bond Market Impact & Debt Challenges 29:18 - Dealing with the U.S. Debt Crisis 32:26 - Bitcoin, Gold, & Protecting Your Wealth 41:03 - Dylan Smith's Podcast & where to find him 42:23 - Conclusion
On this episode of “On The Tape,” David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research joins Dan Nathan and Guy Adami for the full show! Topics they hit include what the bears got wrong about the stock market (2:30), market concentration (8:00), liquidity (11:45), the AI boom comparisons to the dot com bubble (14:00), the read on the broader market (25:45), the move in commodities (35:30), did the Fed f' up? (37:30), why it's not always about the economy (41:00), what could cause a pullback in equities (43:00), and the potential for a currency crisis (45:00). The Autumn 2000 of Cisco's Discontent The indie AI companies are falling apart (Platformer News) After ‘Panic,' Nvidia's AI Chips Are Becoming Easier to Find (The Information) Databricks CEO Predicts Major Drop in AI Chip Prices (The Information) Amazon, Google Quietly Tamp Down Generative AI Expectations (The Information) -- Subscribe to our newsletter: https://riskreversalmedia.beehiiv.com/subscribe About the Show: On The Tape is a weekly podcast with CNBC Fast Money's Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses. They're offering takes on the biggest market-moving headlines of the week, trade ideas, in-depth analysis, tips and advice. Each episode, they are joined by prominent Wall Street participants to help viewers make smarter investment decisions. Bear market, bull market, recession, inflation or deflation… we're here to help guide your portfolio into the green. Risk Reversal brings you years of experience from former Wall Street insiders trading stocks to experts in the commodity market. Shoot us an email at contact@riskreversal.com with any feedback, suggestions, or questions Key Links: Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UBZcBe Follow On The Tape on Twitter: https://twitter.com/OnTheTapePod Subscribe to our newsletter: https://riskreversal.com/sign-up/ Subscribe to our YouTube page: https://www.youtube.com/@RiskReversalMedia #investing #stocks #stockmarket The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.
In this episode, James Connor of Bloor Street Capital, and economic oracle David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research, dive into the unsettling truths of the 2024 economy. Rosenberg reveals the potential for significant economic downturn and wealth erosion in 2024. With an uncanny blend of humor and insight, he exposes the misleading job reports, the phantom strength of the housing market, and the precarious position of the consumer credit bubble. This discussion stretches beyond the US, offering a grim look at Canada's economic pitfalls and the global implications of these trends. If you're looking for a wake-up call on the economic realities of 2024 and want to know how to safeguard your financial future in these turbulent times, this episode is a must-watch. Timestamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:46 - The False Prosperity of Today's Economy with David Rosenberg 10:47 - The Truth Behind Job Reports: A Crisis in the Making 14:09 - Interest Rate Illusions and the Fed's Tightrope 24:38 - The Consumer Credit Bubble: On the Brink of Bursting 33:33 - Decoding Inflation: The Hidden Reality 37:07 - Navigating the Federal Debt Minefield 39:51 - Canada's Economic Quagmire: A Warning to the World 44:07 - The Housing Market Facade: A Looming Reset 48:28 - Historical Echoes: Comparing Economic Cycles 52:58 - Wrapping Up: Strategies for Financial Resilience
Interview recorded - 19th of March, 2024On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of welcoming back David Rosenberg. David is the Founder & President of Rosenberg Research & associates.During our conversation we spoke about why the recession is still on horizon despite market strength, whether we're in a new economy, whether the FED are taking the right action, unwinding of private credit markets, which assets to perform and more!0:00 - Introduction2:14 - Why have we not seen a recession yet?4:32 - Are we in a new economy since COVID?12:12 - Will recession impact markets?17:55 - Are higher interest rates stimulatory?25:22 - Recession is not about if, but about when27:32 - Atlanta FED GDP predictions quite accurate32:02 - What should the FED be doing?33:52 - FED cutting bullish scenario?35:37 - Unwinding of private credit markets?41:22 - Which assets to perform?48:07 - One message to takeaway from our conversation?David Rosenberg is the Founder and President of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc., an economic consulting firm he established in January 2020. He and his team have as their top priority providing investors with analysis and insights to help them make well-informed investment decisions.Prior to Rosenberg Research, David was Chief Economist & Strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. from 2009 to 2019. From 2002 to 2009, he was Chief North American Economist at Merrill Lynch in New York, during which he was consistently ranked in the Institutional Investor All-Star analyst rankings. Prior thereto, he was Chief Economist and Strategist for Merrill Lynch Canada, based out of Toronto, where he and his team placed first in the Brendan Wood survey of Canadian economists for ten years in a row.Mr. Rosenberg is a frequent contributor to most major financial newspapers and publications in North America and makes regular TV appearances in the financial media. He received both a Bachelor of Arts and Masters of Arts degree in Economics from the University of Toronto.David Rosenberg - Website - https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/Twitter - https://twitter.com/EconguyRosieLinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-rosenberg-40800219b/WTFinance -Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfniTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Paul SweeneyTuesday March 5th, 2024Featuring: David Rosenberg, founder and president at Rosenberg Research & Associates, on markets Constance Hunter, Senior Advisor at MacroPolicy Perspectives, on markets Meghan Robson, Head of US Credit Strategy at BNP Paribas Bloomberg's Lisa Mateo with her Newspaper Headlines Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Economist David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, shares his macroeconomic view of the economy and explains why he's not throwing in the towel on his recession call. Rosenberg highlights the importance of understanding the business cycle and the impact of interest rates. While many economists have thrown in the towel on their recession calls, Rosenberg remains in the recession camp, pointing out that the economy is weaker than the narrative suggests. He also emphasizes looking at the full picture, noting the divergences in various economic indicators. Elsewhere, Rosenberg provides insights into the Federal Reserve's rate policy and its implications for bond and equity markets. Rosenberg is bullish on bonds and explains how you could make a 20% total return in the 30-year Treasury. SPECIAL OFFER: Viewers and listeners of The Julia La Roche Show can access a free 30-day trial of Rosenberg Research with no upfront commitment. The free trial grants access to Rosenberg Research's premium service, where you'll receive complimentary macro and market insights every day. Request a trial at this link: https://hub.rosenbergresearch.com/free-trial Timestamps 00:00 Introduction, welcome, macro picture 0:54 Economists throwing in the recession towel 2:55 State of the consumer 4:15 Fiscal stimulus 6:40 Bullish on bonds, sees equity-like returns 7:30 Recession call 10:30 Bifurcation and divergencies in the markets and economy 12:00 GDP and GDI 14:00 Growth in credit card usage, epic drawdown in personal savings 15:00 Employment 22:30 Fiscal policy likely to be a drag 24:30 Household balance sheets - auto loans and credit card delinquencies 26:30 GDP likely close to flat this year 28:30 Outlook for Federal Reserve rate policy, need to go to 2.5% 35:45 Yield curve, why you could make more than 20% total return in 30-year Treasury bond 38:20 Implications equity markets if Fed cuts rates 44:30 Stock market has become a bidding war 48:27 Equity risk premium 53:33 Bob Farrell's influence 57:44 Parting thoughts
This week, we take a look into U.S. household debt and credit, finding that consumers are looking far from “resilient.” We also host Marius Jongstra, head of market strategy at Rosenberg Research, for his latest views on the major asset classes. Introduction (0:20) The Week in Review (0:44) — Diving into the U.S. credit data via the SLOOS and NY Fed's Household Debt and Credit report The Week Ahead (2:27) — Some huge data releases on deck headlined by U.S. CPI and retail sales The Spotlight (2:58) — Fed undershoot? Why we think the Fed's average inflation-targeting framework won't be an issue The Interview (6:34) —Marius Jongstra on the markets Canada Corner (11:21) — Home sales are beginning to pick up while prices falter For a 30-day free trial of our research, please click this link: https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial
This is the Rosenberg Round-Up, hosted by Dylan Smith, Senior Economist at Rosenberg Research. On this week's episode, we host Bhawana Chhabra, CFA, Senior Market Strategist at Rosenberg Research, for a look at her new report on the US equity market titled “What's Priced In.” Introduction (0:20) — Welcome to another week of Rosenberg Round-Up The Week in Review (1:12) — Diving into the latest Fed meeting, ISM manufacturing report and Non-Farm payrolls The Week Ahead (6:35) — Earnings in focus next week The Spotlight (7:00) — A U.S.-focused follow-up to our Global Outlook The Interview (9:01) — We chat with Bhawana Chhabra, CFA, about What's Priced In Canada corner (14:21) — A look at Canadian GDP For a 30-day free trial of our research, please click this link: https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial
Welcome to the inaugural episode of Rosenberg Round-Up, hosted by Dylan Smith, Vice President and Senior Economist at Rosenberg Research. On this week's episode, we host David Rosenberg for his outlook on the year ahead. Introduction (0:20) — Welcome to the Rosenberg Round-up The Week in Review (1:43) — S&P 500 hits new all-time high, but we're not convinced The Week Ahead (3:27) — Here's looking at you, Chairman Powell The Spotlight (3:45) — A QT pivot is coming into view The Interview (6:38) — We chat with Dave Rosenberg about our 2024 Outlook Canada corner (20:05) — Whisper it quietly, but we think the BoC is trying to pop the housing bubble
Timestamps: 0:00 View on Inflation 7:57 The Solution to Federal Government Spending 11:20 Stock-Pickers Market/Opportunities in a Rising Rates Environment 17:01 Best Idea for 2024 Coming together for Round Table Prime are DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach and moderator DoubleLine Deputy Chief Investment Officer Jeffrey Sherman with their guests James Bianco, President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research; Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of Quill Intelligence; Charles Payne, author and Fox Business Anchor; and David Rosenberg, President of economic consulting firm Rosenberg Research & Associates. Round Table Prime was held Jan. 11, 2024.
Jim's Comment: 5:02 Stock-Pickers Market/Opportunities in a Rising Rates Environment During the markets segment of its 2024 edition, participants in DoubleLine Round Table Prime present their outlooks on various markets and topics for 2024. Coming together for Round Table Prime are DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach and moderator DoubleLine Deputy Chief Investment Officer Jeffrey Sherman with their guests James Bianco, President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research; Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of Quill Intelligence; Charles Payne, author and Fox Business Anchor; and David Rosenberg, President of economic consulting firm Rosenberg Research & Associates. Round Table Prime was held Jan. 11, 2024. (00:29) Charles Payne discusses the state of the IPO pipeline heading into 2024 and how that pipeline has punished investors for 15, 20 years. He also shares his Word of the Year for stock investors: nimble. (5:06) Jim Bianco says the art of stock picking is very much alive, breaks down “a multi-year bear market in bonds,” talks the resilience of the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency, and discusses China's slow recovery and its impact on commodities. (10:44) Jeffrey Gundlach looks at valuations and price-to-earnings since the November start of the Everything Rally then talks about how a secular shift from a long period of declining interest rates to a period of rising interest rates will impact participants' and prognosticators' understanding of the markets. He also discusses the potential economic backdrop that would have him looking at EM and lower tiers of credit, and he shares why he has put money in India and doesn't even look at it. He closes with his thoughts on mortgage spreads, high yield bond defaults and TIPS. (25:18) David Rosenberg talks about how the CPI is a flawed statistic, the S&P 500's flat two-year performance with no improvement in valuations, how there's so much psychology involved in the stock market, the equity risk premium, and how the soft landing is real and how historically it has served as a precursor to contraction. He also shares his thoughts on positioning and the outlook for several countries, including Japan and Canada. (42:08) The markets section concludes with Danielle DiMartino Booth discussing private markets juxtaposed against public markets and the impact of public pension funds flowing into private equity a few years ago, and speculating on who will be living in Illinois if Indiana gets rid of its state income tax.
Jim's Comment: 6:28 Best Idea for 2024 Participants in DoubleLine Round Table Prime 2024 share their best trading and investment ideas for 2024. Coming together for Round Table Prime are DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach and moderator DoubleLine Deputy Chief Investment Officer Jeffrey Sherman with their guests James Bianco, President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research; Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of Quill Intelligence; Charles Payne, author and Fox Business Anchor; and David Rosenberg, President of economic consulting firm Rosenberg Research & Associates. Round Table Prime was held Jan. 11, 2024.
Jim's Timestamps: 27:28 Jim's view on Inflation. 1:06:26 The solution to Federal Government Spending. During the macroeconomic segment of its 2024 edition, participants in DoubleLine Round Table Prime among other issues debate the seeming failure of the most telegraphed recession in history to materialize in 2023, the intersection of Federal Reserve policy with a presidential election year and deep changes in the economy post-2020. Coming together for Round Table Prime are DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach and moderator DoubleLine Deputy Chief Investment Officer Jeffrey Sherman with their guests James Bianco, President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research; Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of Quill Intelligence; Charles Payne, author and Fox Business Anchor; and David Rosenberg, President of economic consulting firm Rosenberg Research & Associates. Round Table Prime was held Jan. 11, 2024. Topics include: (1:08) How the U.S. avoided recession despite numerous recessionary indicators and evidence the U.S. economy is far more downbeat than some widely followed economic statistics would indicate. (10:57) The condition of consumer and household financial conditions and the rapid rise of consumer borrowing delinquencies. (15:50) Possible factors behind the protracted length of the current cycle, including money supply as measured by M2, and as Charles Payne points out (27:58), the velocity of money. (30:45) Post-2020 transformations of the economy, the biggest, Jim Bianco notes, being remote work and acceleration of deglobalization, with important implications for inflation. (35:52) Federal Reserve monetary policy, including Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell's dovish pivot Dec. 13, which Danielle DiMartino Booth thinks was timed “to get in front of the Iowa caucuses.” (45:50) The probability of recession in 2024. (50:11) Jeffrey Gundlach's warning about the combination of the federal government running large deficits (even amid low unemployment), funded by debt, amid rising interest rates, and his outlook on the inevitability of a restructuring of the federal debt and the unfunded liabilities of American entitlement programs.
PEO Leadership 2022 Conference - Special thanks to Focus Asset Management for making this fireside chat possible! David Rosenberg provides advice to 2,600 clients, both retail and institutional, across 40 countries. He is the founder and president of Rosenberg Research, an economic and financial market consulting firm he established in January 2020. Prior to creating his own company, David was chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates from 2009 to 2019. Prior to that, from 2000 to 2009, he was at Merrill Lynch, where for the first two years he was the chief Canadian economist and strategist based out of Toronto; for the last seven, he was the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch in New York, where he was consistently ranked in the top three of Wall Street economists polled by the annual Institutional Investors survey.PEO Leadership provides its business community the ability to leverage its collective knowledge, experience and network; to challenge and be challenged in a high-disclosure, objective and trusted environment through a combination of Peer Advisory Boards, One-on-One Coaching, and Thought Leadership Executive Networking Events - all for the purpose of enhancing the personal and professional lives of its members.
The world has watched intently as the world's most influential central bank, the Federal Reserve, has implemented the most aggressive interest rate hike campaign in history -- on a % change over time basis. But that campaign may now be over. And if it is, it suggests opportunity in the long Treasury bond market. To find out just how much of an opportunity, we sit down today with highly-respected economist & award-winning researcher David Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research. Learn more about David's work at https://rosenbergresearch.com/ #recession #bonds #inflation
On this episode of “On The Tape,” Guy, Danny, and Dan talk about the rally off the lows (2:00), yields vs. stocks (9:00), commodities (16:30), the BOJ meeting (18:00), bank stocks (21:30), why Dan thinks it's a good trading environment (24:30), and Danny's NFL picks (27:30). David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research joins to discuss the rally within the bear market (32:00), why the bond market is more attractive than the stock market (36:00), what would make him “very bullish” (39:00), the economy (41:00), what happens to the stock market when the Fed stops raising interest rates (44:00), the possibility for a recession (47:30), positioning in the bond market (49:30), cracks in the housing market (55:00), the stock to bond ratio (59:30), and credit (1:01:30). — About the Show: On The Tape is a weekly podcast with CNBC Fast Money's Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses. They're offering takes on the biggest market-moving headlines of the week, trade ideas, in-depth analysis, tips and advice. Each episode, they are joined by prominent Wall Street participants to help viewers make smarter investment decisions. Bear market, bull market, recession, inflation or deflation… we're here to help guide your portfolio into the green. Risk Reversal brings you years of experience from former Wall Street insiders trading stocks to experts in the commodity market. — Check out our show notes here Learn more about Ro body: ro.co/tape See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/onthetape. — Shoot us an email at OnTheTape@riskreversal.com with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @OnTheTapePod on Twitter or @riskreversalmedia on Threads — We're on social: Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow Danny Moses @DMoses34 on Twitter Follow Liz Young @LizYoungStrat on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page
David Rosenberg is Founder and President of Rosenberg Research. Brian Belski is Chief Investment Strategist of BMO Capital Markets. They both sat down with me for separate interviews at The 2023 MoneyShow Toronto to share their take on markets – and their outlooks could NOT be more divergent. to get the latest investing and trading guidance from dozens of top MoneyShow experts like these, don't forget to join us at the MoneyShow/TradersEXPO Orlando, set for Oct. 29-31, 2023 at the Omni Orlando Resort at ChampionsGate. Visit www.OrlandoMoneyShow.com for more details.
David Rosenberg is the founder and president of Rosenberg Research, an economic and financial market consulting firm he established in January 2020. Dave provides advice to 2,600 clients, both retail and institutional, across 40 countries. Prior to creating his own company, David was chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates from 2009 to 2019. Prior to that, from 2000 to 2009, he was at Merrill Lynch, where for the first two years he was chief Canadian economist and strategist based out of Toronto; for the last seven he was Chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch in New York, where he was consistently ranked in top three of Wall Street economists polled by the annual Institutional Investors survey. David is a frequent contributor to most major financial newspapers and publications in North America and makes regular TV appearances in the financial media. He received both a BA and MA in economics from the University of Toronto.
Interview recorded - 31st of August 2023On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of speaking with David Rosenberg - Founder & President of Rosenberg Research & associates.During our conversation we spoke about why we have seen strong markets throughout 2023, similarities between 2008 and today, whether we could see a deep recession and what this means for assets moving forward. I hope you enjoy!0:00 - Introduction1:32 - Why have we seen strong markets in 2023?4:27 - Have you been surprised about consumer strength?9:39 - Similarities between today and 2008?16:47 - All linked to employment22:42 - Unemployment back to the mean?23:57 - Will it be a deep recession?35:52 - Jay Powell late to the cutting party?42:17 - How will assets react to a recession?49:55 - One message to take away from our conversation?David Rosenberg is the Founder and President of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc., an economic consulting firm he established in January 2020. He and his team have as their top priority providing investors with analysis and insights to help them make well-informed investment decisions.Prior to Rosenberg Research, David was Chief Economist & Strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. from 2009 to 2019. From 2002 to 2009, he was Chief North American Economist at Merrill Lynch in New York, during which he was consistently ranked in the Institutional Investor All-Star analyst rankings. Prior thereto, he was Chief Economist and Strategist for Merrill Lynch Canada, based out of Toronto, where he and his team placed first in the Brendan Wood survey of Canadian economists for ten years in a row.Mr. Rosenberg is a frequent contributor to most major financial newspapers and publications in North America and makes regular TV appearances in the financial media. He received both a Bachelor of Arts and Masters of Arts degree in Economics from the University of Toronto.David Rosenberg - Website - https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/Twitter - https://twitter.com/EconguyRosieLinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-rosenberg-40800219b/WTFinance -Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfniTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas
On today's episode of Forward Guidance, David Rosenberg Founder and President of Rosenberg Research & Associates joins the show to discuss the continuing recessionary pressures he sees building in the economy. Preparing for a recession within the next six months, David walks through prior Fed tightening cycles, the lagged effects of fiscal stimulus that are now dwindling and the incoming credit crunch that will materialize towards the end of 2023 into 2024. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Today's interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance -- Follow David Rosenberg on Twitter https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:37) The Big Story Is What Happens Next Year (09:27) Questioning The Higher For Longer Narrative (20:20) What Causes A Recession? (24:56) How Sensitive Is The Economy To Higher Interest Rates? (35:34) We Haven't Felt The Full Impact Of Higher Interest Rates Yet (42:02) The Politics Of Deficit Spending (47:01) There Are Three Stages To Every Bear Market (59:37) How Deep Will The Credit Crunch Be? (01:06:56) Fitch's AAA Downgrade (01:09:41) The Fed Has Overtightened (01:14:12) The Manufacturing Cycle & Unemployment (01:16:00) Where Will The Unemployment Rate Peak? _____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mohamed El-Erian of Queens' College Cambridge expects a dovish Fed and a hawkish BOE. Win Thin of Brown Brothers Harriman could see a higher dollar ahead. Elina Ribakova of the Peterson Institute for International Economics says the situation in the Black Sea is devastating. David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research says that the development of AI will mean the fiscal system will need revamping. Vinai Venkatesham of Arsenal FC says the US has become their top international market ahead of their friendly in New Jersey against Manchester United. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
David Rosenberg is Founder and President of Rosenberg Research. In this MoneyShow MoneyMasters Podcast segment, the noted strategist and economist warns that the risk of recession is much higher than markets and many investors appreciate. He compares the current environment to past periods of (misguided) pre-recession optimism like 1989, 2000, and 2007. David also explains why both the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada will have to change their interest rate tune soon due to a deteriorating economic and credit environment. David further outlines his THREE primary strategies for investors, the main reason why you shouldn't let “FOMO” guide your actions, and the key forces that make Canadian equities much more attractive than U.S. stocks. Finally, he gives a sneak peek at what he'll discuss at our upcoming MoneyShow Toronto, set for Sept. 8-9, 2023 at the Metro Toronto Convention Centre North.
According to today's headlines, it's looking increasingly likely that the economy may dodge a recession. The calls for a "soft landing" are turning into ones of "no landing at all". The same headlines tell us the markets are in great shape and will be powered higher from here by a new AI-driven profitability boom. But according to today's guest, highly-respected economist & award-winning researcher David Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research, the headlines are selling a false narrative. By his measure, the recession is already arriving, deflation not inflation is the bigger threat & the current market AI frenzy is a classic stock mania that will end the way all bubbles do. Follow David at http://rosenbergresearch.com/ Or on Twitter: https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie ************************************************* At Wealthion, we show you how to protect and build your wealth by learning from the world's top experts on finance and money. Each week we add new videos that provide you with access to the foremost specialists in investing, economics, the stock market, real estate and personal finance. We offer exceptional interviews and explainer videos that dive deep into the trends driving today's markets, the economy, and your own net worth. We give you strategies for financial security, practical answers to questions like “how to grow my investments?”, and effective solutions for wealth building tailored to 'regular' investors just like you. There's no doubt that it's a very challenging time right now for the average investor. Above and beyond the recent economic impacts of COVID, the new era of record low interest rates, runaway US debt and US deficits, and trillions of dollars in monetary and fiscal stimulus stimulus has changed the rules of investing by dangerously distorting the Dow index, the S&P 500, and nearly all other asset prices. Can prices keep rising, or is there a painful reckoning ahead? Let us help you prepare your portfolio just in case the future brings one or more of the following: inflation, deflation, a bull market, a bear market, a market correction, a stock market crash, a real estate bubble, a real estate crash, an economic boom, a recession, a depression, or another global financial crisis. Put the wisdom from the money & markets experts we feature on Wealthion into action by scheduling a free consultation with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors, who will work with you to determine the right next steps for you to take in building your wealth. SCHEDULE YOUR FREE WEALTH CONSULTATION with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors here: https://www.wealthion.com/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKMeK-HGHfUFFArZ91rzv5A?sub_confirmation=1 Follow Adam on Twitter: https://twitter.com/menlobear Follow us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Wealthion-109680281218040 #recessionstockmarket #inflationrecession #stockmarketcrash ************************************************* IMPORTANT NOTE: The information and opinions offered in this video by Wealthion or its interview guests are for educational purposes ONLY and should NOT be construed as personal financial advice. We strongly recommend that any potential decisions and actions you may take in your investment portfolio be conducted under the guidance and supervision of a quality professional financial advisor in good standing with the securities industry. When it comes to investing, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections may not reflect actual future performance. All investments involve risk and may result in partial or total loss.
Join us for a thought-provoking conversation with David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research as we discuss the global macro outlook and why David believes the US economy is on the verge of recession. We examine the parallels between the current economic cycle and past cycles, particularly the 1920s and 1970s, and discuss how past Fed tightening cycles have played out for the economy and asset prices. David lays out his case for why he is sceptical of the narrative that inflation will remain sticky and outlines the key indicators he is monitoring that suggest that the US economy will soon be in recession. We discuss debt, demographics and deglobalization and whether these will inflationary or disinflationary forces over the coming decade.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----ATTENTION TTU TRIBE : SIGN-UP for Rick Rule's Symposium: Once in a life-time natural resource insights from the BEST investors in the world via a first-class livestream or Live event!Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow David on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 03:23 - Introduction to David Rosenberg08:00 - Rosenberg's research process11:56 - The importance of historical awareness25:00 - Disruptions in the demand curve31:16 - Getting the timing right43:54 - The longer term trajectory52:58 - Dealing with high debt levels57:12 - A shift in...
Guy, Dan and Danny discuss Stan Druckenmiller's comments on the economy (2:00), regional banks (5:30), interest rates (9:15), how stocks are reacting to earnings (15:40), the debt ceiling (19:00), Hindenburg taking on Carl Icahn (23:00), earnings giving clues about the consumer (28:00), the death rattle closing in on AI (31:45), DTCC leaking sensitive data (36:00), and Elon hiring a new Twitter CEO (39:30). Later, Dan and Guy are joined by David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research and talk about the market stuck in no man's land (41:00), where's the recession (48:00), when we could see a market bottom (55:00), financial calamities (59:00), and how it could be different this time (1:14:00). About the Show: On The Tape is a weekly podcast with CNBC Fast Money's Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses. They're offering takes on the biggest market-moving headlines of the week, trade ideas, in-depth analysis, tips and advice. Each episode, they are joined by prominent Wall Street participants to help viewers make smarter investment decisions. Bear market, bull market, recession, inflation or deflation… we're here to help guide your portfolio into the green. Risk Reversal brings you years of experience from former Wall Street insiders trading stocks to experts in the commodity market. Check out our show notes here See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/onthetape. Shoot us an email at OnTheTape@riskreversal.com with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @OnTheTapePod. We're on social: Follow Dan Nathan @RiskReversal on Twitter Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow Danny Moses @DMoses34 on Twitter Follow Liz Young @LizYoungStrat on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page
On today's episode of On The Margin, David Rosenberg Founder and President of Rosenberg Research & Associates joins the show for a discussion on the mounting recessionary headwinds that signal towards a recession in the second half of 2023. Arguing that "a recession is a 2023 story", David walks through the leading indicators that suggest a slowdown could be on the very near horizon. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow David: https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ — Lightspeed Podcast Opportunity Click here to learn more about Blockworks' upcoming Lightspeed podcast and submit an application to be one of our hosts! http://bit.ly/40J0jCx — Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ — Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
PEO Leadership 2022 Conference - Special thanks to Focus Asset Management for making this fireside chat possible! David Rosenberg provides advice to 2,600 clients, both retail and institutional, across 40 countries. He is the founder and president of Rosenberg Research, an economic and financial market consulting firm he established in January 2020. Prior to creating his own company, David was chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates from 2009 to 2019. Prior to that, from 2000 to 2009, he was at Merrill Lynch, where for the first two years he was chief Canadian economist and strategist based out of Toronto; for the last seven he was Chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch in New York, where he was consistently ranked in the top three of Wall Street economists polled by the annual Institutional Investors survey.PEO Leadership provides its business community the ability to leverage its collective knowledge, experience and network; to challenge and be challenged in a high disclosure, objective and trusted environment through a combination of Peer Advisory Boards, One-on-One Coaching, and Thought Leadership Executive Networking Events - all for the purpose of enhancing the personal and professional lives of its members.
MacroVoices Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Rosenberg Research founder David Rosenberg to the show. Rosie says the bottom isn't in yet for the stock market, and the long-awaited recession has finally begun now. They also discuss precious metals, bond yields and FOMC policy. https://bit.ly/43MiHMK Rosenberg Research Free Trial: https://bit.ly/3L3yWKM Download Big Picture Trading chartbook
In Episode 303 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with economist David Rosenberg. David is the founder and president of Rosenberg Research, an economic and financial market consulting firm that provides advice to thousands of retail and institutional clients across 40 countries. Demetri and David spend the first hour of their conversation discussing Rosenberg's economic philosophy. David also shares lessons from his experience working in the finance industry since the early 1980s and what that experience taught him about markets, investing, and the economic cycle. The second half of their conversation is much more investment focused. Demetri asks David about specific sectors of the economy like the resource sector, housing, and commercial real estate. They also discuss the impairment of bank balance sheets that has resulted from the Fed's dramatic tightening of interests rates and how that impairment resembles the crisis that hit the savings and loan industry in the late 80s and early 90s. You can subscribe to our premium content and gain access to our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports (or Key Takeaways) at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page. If you still have questions, feel free to email info@hiddenforces.io, and Demetri or someone else from our team will get right back to you. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 03/20/2023
Enrique Flores (@enrique_jfb) is the CEO and Digital Experience Consultant at Paula, a digital solutions company. He's also my ex roommate and one of my best friends. He is the former Chief Marketing & Tecnology Officer at Rosenberg Research & Associates, and the former Director of Brand & Communications at Gluskin Sheff, two of the biggest wealth firms in Canada. Let's continue the conversation on Instagram at @stephandyer and @enrique_jfb ! The Stephan Dyer Podcast is produced by Narzely Guevara and edited by Carlos Bolivar. #TheStephanDyerPodcast
Interview recorded - 31st of January, 2023On todays episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of speaking with David Rosenberg, Founder & President of Rosenberg Research & associates.During our conversation we spoke about whether there is a chance for a soft landing, how bad the recession will be, how the recession will impact markets, which assets will perform and what would have to change for David to go long. I hope you enjoy!0:00 - Introduction1:06 - Any inkling of a soft landing, or more pain to come?5:36 - Will the FED get continued inflation or disinflation?10:19 - FED watching unemployment14:20 - Would recession impact the markets?19:36 - Which asset will perform during a recession?22:35 - Key indicators David will watch to go long?26:58 - One message from conversation?David Rosenberg is the Founder and President of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc., an economic consulting firm he established in January 2020. He and his team have as their top priority providing investors with analysis and insights to help them make well-informed investment decisions.Prior to Rosenberg Research, David was Chief Economist & Strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. from 2009 to 2019. From 2002 to 2009, he was Chief North American Economist at Merrill Lynch in New York, during which he was consistently ranked in the Institutional Investor All-Star analyst rankings. Prior thereto, he was Chief Economist and Strategist for Merrill Lynch Canada, based out of Toronto, where he and his team placed first in the Brendan Wood survey of Canadian economists for ten years in a row.Mr. Rosenberg is a frequent contributor to most major financial newspapers and publications in North America and makes regular TV appearances in the financial media. He received both a Bachelor of Arts and Masters of Arts degree in Economics from the University of Toronto.David Rosenberg - Website - https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/Twitter - https://twitter.com/EconguyRosieLinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-rosenberg-40800219b/WTFinance -Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfniTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas
In the third segment of Round Table Prime 2023, the panelists offer their best investment ideas for the year ahead. The panelists are host DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach, and guests James Bianco, President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research; Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of Quill Intelligence; author and Fox Business anchor Charles Payne; and David Rosenberg, President of economic consulting firm Rosenberg Research & Associates. The discussion, recorded Jan. 4, 2023, was moderated by DoubleLine Deputy Chief Investment Officer Jeffrey Sherman. Time Stamps: (0:13) Best investment idea for 2023. (0:55) Thoughts on India. (01:56) Speculation in the market is not gone. Full video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRjf4VfZm7E
In the second segment of Round Table Prime 2023, the panelists offer their outlooks across equity, fixed income, commodity and other markets. Then they are asked to share hypothetical fixed 12-month asset allocations for the calendar year. The panelists are host DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach, and guests James Bianco, President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research; Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of Quill Intelligence; author and Fox Business anchor Charles Payne; and David Rosenberg, President of economic consulting firm Rosenberg Research & Associates. The discussion, recorded Jan. 4, 2023, was moderated by DoubleLine Deputy Chief Investment Officer Jeffrey Sherman. Time Stamps: (0:00) Updated thoughts on DeFi. (03:45) Calculating duration on stocks. (05:14) Thoughts on ex-United States economies. (06:30) Asset allocation advice.
2023 could offer cyclical downturn in a landscape of secular change as the world appears on the threshold of global recession. Moreover, trends that for decades have driven economies, markets, monetary policy and governance might be staging reversals. In this first of three segments, DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach and moderator DoubleLine Deputy Chief Investment Officer Jeffrey Sherman on Jan. 4, 2023, discuss the Macroeconomic State of Play with their guests James Bianco, President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research; Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of Quill Intelligence; author and Fox Business anchor Charles Payne; and David Rosenberg, President of economic consulting firm Rosenberg Research & Associates. Timestamps: (0:10): Current state of the Federal Reserve. (4:08) Where does Inflation settle out at in 2023? (6:34) Will the Fed be successful in eradicating the Fed Put? (9:58) China Reopening. Full video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwEPd-jORQU
On today's episode of On the Margin, David Rosenberg Founder and President of Rosenberg Research joins the show to answer the question: "Have we hit the bear market low?". We start with David's view that the market is still overpriced and the overwhelming odds of a recession in 2023. He explains why the yield curve is the most important variable, what to watch in the bond market and how a consumer default cycle will play out. We then finish the discussion on supply-side inflation, why David expects deflation is on the horizon and what to expect next! -- Follow David: https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Circle's USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency which outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is. -- Referenced In The Show: Rosenberg Research https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/ Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises https://www.amazon.com/Manias-Panics-Crashes-History-Financial/dp/1137525754 Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/91360.Devil_Take_the_Hindmost -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:16) Have We Hit The Bear Market Low? (11:30) Will The Fed Break The Market? (21:10) What Does A Default Cycle Look Like? (29:26) When Will Reality Set In For Consumers? (37:26) Circle Ad (38:46) Has J Powell Over-Tightened? (44:54) Supply-Driven Inflation (52:54) Which Assets Get Bid First In A Recovery? (1:02:28) The US Outlook (1:05:39) People Don't Learn From History -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
The major averages pulled back to kick off the holiday trading week, as investors keep a close eye on Fed commentary. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester joins exclusively with her outlook for the December meeting, plus thoughts on the inflation trajectory and if she thinks a recession is coming in 2023. David Rosenberg from Rosenberg Research breaks down her comments and the market impact. Disney was a winner on the upside after the surprise news that former CEO Bob Iger would resume his post. David Faber joins with the latest on Iger's first priorities at the company. Plus the latest on FTX, Tesla's tumble, and DraftKings.
L'essentiel des nouvelles économiques, financières et technologiques aujourd'hui[texte complet ou presque, ni révisé ni corrigé à des fins de publication] Twitter a licencié vendredi environ la moitié de ses 7500 employés. Elon Musk, qui vient d'acheter le réseau social, a expliqué sur Twitter que ces licenciements étaient nécessaires parce que «l'entreprise perd plus de 4 millions $US par jour». Le directeur général des activités canadiennes fait partie des employés licenciés.Mais, comme elon Musk n'en est pas à ue volte-face près, on apprend de bloomberg que certains des employés licenciés vendredi auraient déjà été rappelé au travail. Certains auraient en effet été licenciés par erreur.Twitter n'est pas la seule compagnie de technologies à vouloir réduire ses coûts en réduisant ses effectifs. Le Wall Street journal révèle que Meta, la société de mère de Facebook et d'Instagram, se prépare à faire la même chose, Elle s'apprêterait à congédier plusieurs milliers d'employés dès cette semaine, selon le journal.Les Sénateurs d'Ottawa ont officiellement été mis en vente. Une des conditions de la vente est que l'équipe de hockey demeure à Ottawa. L'organisation des Sénateurs d'Ottawa vaut 655 millions $US, selon Sportico, une firme spécialisée dans les finances sportives, qui classe les équipes de la LNH selon leurs revenus. Un éclatement de la bulle immobilière ferait plus mal au Canada qu'aux États-UnisC'est ce qu'a écrit dans une note à ses clients l'économiste canadien et président de la firme Rosenberg Research, David Rosenberg. Il avertit que les Canadiens se sont beaucoup plus endettés que les Américains pour acheter des biens immobiliers.La dette par rapport au revenu disponible est beaucoup plus élevée au Canada qu'aux États-Unis, selon les données que cite Rosenberg provenant de la firme américain Haver Analytics. •Les Canadiens doivent en moyenne 1,65$ pour chaque dollar qu'ils gagnent. •alors que les Américains ne doivent 1$ pour chaque dollar qu'ils gagnent. Comme chaque lundi, InfoBref vous fait découvrir une jeune entreprise québécoise innovante.Aujourd'hui, Nura Médical, une startup de Montréal qui s'assure que les enfants reçoivent la bonne dose du bon médicamentL'agitation et la tension qui règnent dans l'urgence d'un hôpital peuvent causer des erreurs. Beaucoup d'enfants y sont victimes d'un type d'erreur fréquent: on ne leur injecte pas la bonne dose du médicament qu'ils doivent prendre.La jeune pousse montréalaise Nura Médical a inventé un système qui règle ce problème: son système évalue précisément le poids de l'enfant et calcule immédiatement la dose adéquate.--- Pour plus de détails sur ces nouvelles et pour d'autres nouvelles: https://infobref.com Pour vous abonner aux infolettres gratuites d'InfoBref: https://infobref.com/infolettres Pour voir en vidéo notre épisode hebdomadaire «à retenir cette semaine»: https://bit.ly/infobref-youtube Pour écouter ce balado dans Alexa: skill «InfoBref Affaires» Pour des commentaires et suggestions, ou pour commanditer InfoBref Affaires: editeur@infobref.com Hébergé par Acast. Visitez acast.com/privacy pour plus d'informations.
CANADA'S INFLATION AT 6.9%, BUT FOOD PRICES CONTINUE RISING Libby Znaimer is joined by Benjamin Tal, Chief Economist for CIBC as well as Pau Pujolas, Associate Professor of Economics at McMaster University and Julia Wendling, economist with Rosenberg Research. According to Statistics Canada, the rate of inflation declined to 6.9 per cent during the month of September. It was 7 per cent in August. At the same time, our food prices went up 11.4 per cent compared to one year ago. Our economists weigh in on the latest and what this means for you. JAGMEET SINGH ON NDP MOTION ADDRESSING "GREEDFLATION" Libby Znaimer is joined by Jagmeet Singh, leader of the NDP. Since Monday Loblaw Companies' move to freeze prices on some lower end no name products has been front and centre. The announcement by the company's billionaire chairman Galen Weston just reignited the debate about whether the large grocers are using inflation as a cover for price gouging. The concept is called greedflation and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has been spearheading the discussion on this. DR. THERESA TAM'S FORECAST OF A FALL RESURGENCE OF COVID-19 Libby Znaimer is joined by Dr. Prabhat Jha, Epidemiologist and faculty member at the Dalla Lana School of Public Health. We've been hearing some dire warnings about a potential fall resurgence of COVID-19. The latest is from Canada's Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam who says the Public Health Agency of Canada is looking carefully at the evolution of Omicron subvariants and preparing for a "worst case scenario". There have been some reports that the latest subvariants have the ability to evade the vaccines and may be even more contagious. Listen live, weekdays from noon to 1, on Zoomer Radio!
Pandemic government spending, labour shortages, rising gas prices, and supply chain bottlenecks have led to a surge in inflation and some of the fastest price gains for a broad range of goods and services in the last 40 years. In response, some financial experts expect central banks to raise rates multiple times this year and start selling off some of the hundreds of billions in bonds they purchased during the pandemic. The threat of entrenched inflation supposedly requires central banks to respond aggressively and raise interest rates repeatedly over the course of 2022 despite tightening financial conditions and seemingly slowing economic growth. Other economists disagree, insisting that central banks have responded appropriately by not taking drastic and unnecessary actions that could cause a recession. Long-term inflation pricing in the bond market suggests that the inflation threat is a short-term problem, and small rate increases now can more than offset the risk of runaway, long-term inflation. The bigger risk is an economic slowdown or outright recession brought on by central banks raising rates too fast while selling off hundreds of billions in bonds into a global debt market that will struggle to absorb record government deficits. Arguing for the motion is Mohamed El-Erian, President of Queens' College at Cambridge University and Chief Economic Advisor to Allianz SE Arguing against the motion is David Rosenberg, President and Chief Economist and Strategist of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc. QUOTES: MOHAMED EL-ERIAN “The Fed has to act and act boldly. Already it has lost some credibility, and if it delays more, it will lose even more credibility and have very few policy options that are attractive.” DAVID ROSENBERG “My view is that inflation is going to ultimately decline of its own accord and the historical record proves that.” Sources: CNN, CNBC, PBS, France24 The host of the Munk Debates is Rudyard Griffiths - @rudyardg. Tweet your comments about this episode to @munkdebate or comment on our Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/munkdebates/ To sign up for a weekly email reminder for this podcast, send an email to podcast@munkdebates.com. To support civil and substantive debate on the big questions of the day, consider becoming a Munk Member at https://munkdebates.com/membership Members receive access to our 10+ year library of great debates in HD video, a free Munk Debates book, newsletter and ticketing privileges at our live events. This podcast is a project of the Munk Debates, a Canadian charitable organization dedicated to fostering civil and substantive public dialogue - https://munkdebates.com/ Senior Producer: Ricki Gurwitz Editor: Reza Dahya
David Rosenberg is the Founder and President of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc., an economic consulting firm he established in January 2020. He and his team have as their top priority providing investors with analysis and insights to help them make well-informed investment decisions. Prior to Rosenberg Research, David was Chief Economist & Strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. from 2009 to 2019. From 2002 to 2009, he was Chief North American Economist at Merrill Lynch in New York, during which he was consistently ranked in the Institutional Investor All-Star analyst rankings. Prior thereto, he was Chief Economist and Strategist for Merrill Lynch Canada, based out of Toronto, where he and his team placed first in the Brendan Wood survey of Canadian economists for ten years in a row. Mr. Rosenberg is a frequent contributor to most major financial newspapers and publications in North America and makes regular TV appearances in the financial media. He received both a Bachelor of Arts and Masters of Arts degree in Economics from the University of Toronto.
Julia Wendling, economist, independent research firm Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc
Guy, Dan and Danny discuss the market's reaction to this week's Fed meeting (3:30), whether we will see a rate cut (8:04), big tech earnings (12:00), what banks are saying about the economy (14:14), Walmart's warning (17:53), and Meta's quarter (24:41). Later, Dan sits down with David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research, to talk about recession indicators (33:19), why David thinks we have seen the last rate hike of the cycle (37:44), cracks in the housing market (54:04), and why the worst is not over (1:01:27). ---- See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/onthetape. ---- Shoot us an email at OnTheTape@riskreversal.com with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @OnTheTapePod. We're on social: Follow Dan Nathan @RiskReversal on Twitter Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow Danny Moses @DMoses34 on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page
Get all of Opto's best content every day, by subscribing to our FREE Newsletter: www.cmcmarkets.com/en/opto/newsletterToday we're revisiting one of our most popular episodes to date. Back in April, I spoke to David Rosenberg, President, and Chief Economist & Strategist at Rosenberg Research, an economic consultancy firm.David offered a fascinating outlook for Russia, the likely repercussions of their invasion of Ukraine, and the resulting commodity supply squeeze. With Oil having rebounded above $100 as supply concerns outweigh the fear of recession, David's insights prove both timely, and illuminating. Enjoy!Thanks to Cofruition for consulting on and producing the podcast. Want further Opto insights? Check out our daily newsletter: https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en-gb/opto/newsletter------------------Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.CMC Markets does not endorse or offer opinions on the trading strategies used by the author. Their trading strategies do not guarantee any return and CMC Markets shall not be held responsible for any loss that you may incur, either directly or indirectly, arising from any investment based on any information contained herein for any loss that you may incur, either directly or indirectly, arising from any investment based on any information contained herein.
Ouch! The S&P 500 ended the first half of the year with its worst performance since 1970, down more than 20%, cementing its bear market status. And the recession drumbeat is getting louder. This morning, leading Wall Street economist, Nancy Lazar told clients “a recession is coming sooner than you think” PiperlSandler's Global Chief Economist blames “sticky inflation”, “very aggressive Fed tightening, and a “severe corporate profit recession” for her forecast of a mild recession with the economy contracting starting in the final quarter of this year into the first half of next year. But this week's WEALTHTRACK guest is way ahead of her and the few others just joining the recession club. He's been warning clients about the likelihood of a downturn for months. Our guest is David Rosenberg, President, Chief Economist, and Strategist at his independent economic consulting firm Rosenberg Research which he founded in January 2020. High inflation is at the top of the Federal Reserve's, Washington's, and Wall Street's list. Rosenberg says they are looking at the wrong numbers and that disinflation is already taking hold. Interest rates are expected to go higher for longer. Rosenberg cites evidence of economic slowing which will require easing sooner than expected. As I just mentioned, the likelihood of recession is still being debated. Rosenberg is forecasting a recession this year. What about the already steep bear market decline? Rosenberg warns about the lure of bear market rallies. Which prevailing views is Rosenberg challenging now? WEALTHTRACK Episode 1901 broadcast on July 01, 2022 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/influential-prescient-economist-dave-rosenberg-warns-of-imminent-recession-an-extended-bear-market/ --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/wealthtrack/support
In this episode, Ginsler Wealth CEO, Brian Ginsler, speaks with David Rosenberg, President and Chief Economist & Strategist of Rosenberg Research. They discuss what it takes to be a successful entrepreneur, economics 101, modern inflation, and David makes one of his boldest calls yet on the Canadian housing market. In this episode we discuss: 2:31 Background of David Rosenberg 5:28 Work ethic and passion 11:02 Entrepreneurship 14:44 Differentiation and building a business 18:00 Supply and demand curves 22:22 Inflation today 28:24 Central banks and interest rates 35:29 Supply and demand in the economy 36:52 Economic cycles and recession 38:47 Looking ahead for investors 40:52 Global supply chains 46:02 Investing through a recession 48:09 Canadian housing market 56:31 Closing remarks and disclaimer Note that past performance is not indicative of future returns, and nothing in this episode should be considered as investment advice. The Unlimited Podcast is a Ginsler Wealth audio production. It is hosted and produced by Brian Ginsler, and edited and mixed by Kathryn Donville.
In our upcoming episode, Ginsler Wealth CEO, Brian Ginsler, speaks with David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research. They discuss what it takes to be a successful entrepreneur, economics 101, modern inflation, and the Canadian housing market. Follow and subscribe to be the first to hear their fascinating discussion. Note that past performance is not indicative of future returns, and nothing in this episode should be considered as investment advice. The Unlimited Podcast is a Ginsler Wealth audio production. It is hosted and produced by Brian Ginsler, and edited and mixed by Kathryn Donville.
On today's episode of “On the Margin,” David Rosenberg joins the show to discuss the mounting risk of recession. Investors are battling with the highest inflation the US has seen in 40 years. PMIs are contracting in China, M2 growth is turning negative, and consumers have begun to reign in spending. David forecasts a substantial economic slowdown and sees the threat of recession creeping closer — he also predicts a surprise shock that markets have yet to realize. Is a deflationary sucker punch on the horizon? You'll have to tune in to find out! -- David Rosenberg is the founder and President of the research firm Rosenberg Research. You can sign up for a free, one-month trial on their website: rosenbergresearch.com. Follow David Rosenberg: https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter -- Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks -- Timestamps: (00:00)・Introduction (00:53)・Inflation (14:43)・Leading Indicators For Inflation (23:40)・Fireblocks Ad (24:57)・Declining Productivity (35:11)・The Great Narrative Unwind (45:48)・The Powell Put: Comparisons To Paul Volcker (50:24)・The Powell Pivot Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify. Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3 Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Guy, Dan and Danny discuss scary price action in the stock market (3:00), Elon Musk and Twitter (20:04), single stocks crashing from their highs (25:00), and Danny's Kentucky Derby picks (30:13). The co-hosts interview David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research and talk about this week's Fed meeting (37:37), inflationary shocks (44:57), what happens next if we enter a recession (50:41), what to buy in this environment (57:59), and what it would take to make David bullish (1:06:23). ---- See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/onthetape. ---- Shoot us an email at OnTheTape@riskreversal.com with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod, and follow us @OnTheTapePod. We're on social: Follow Dan Nathan @RiskReversal on Twitter Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow Danny Moses @DMoses34 on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page
David Rosenberg is the President and Chief Economist & Strategist at Rosenberg Research, an economic and consulting firm he established in January 2020.David's CV boasts stints at Merrill Lynch, first as Chief Economist & Strategist for the company's Canadian arm, before a promotion to Chief North American Economist. From 2009, David was Chief Economist & Strategist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates, pivoting from an institutional focus to cover the interests of high-net-worths'.David gives us his outlook for Russia, and the likely repercussions of their invasion into Ukraine, and the resulting commodity supply squeeze. David gives us the odds of a recession in China, an economy marred by regulatory clampdowns and draconian Covid restrictions. And finally, we turn our minds to the US, contemplating the probability of recession there as the Fed attempt to stamp out rampant inflation. Enjoy!Try Rosenberg's research for free, here: https://app.rosenbergresearch.com/sign-up/custom/user-informationThanks to Cofruition for consulting on and producing the podcast. Want further Opto insights? Check out our daily newsletter: https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en-gb/opto/newsletter------------------Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.CMC Markets does not endorse or offer opinions on the trading strategies used by the author. Their trading strategies do not guarantee any return and CMC Markets shall not be held responsible for any loss that you may incur, either directly or indirectly, arising from any investment based on any information contained herein for any loss that you may incur, either directly or indirectly, arising from any investment based on any information contained herein.
Pandemic government spending, labour shortages, rising gas prices, and supply chain bottlenecks have led to a surge in inflation and some of the fastest price gains for a broad range of goods and services in the last 40 years. In response, some financial experts expect central banks to raise rates multiple times this year and start selling off some of the hundreds of billions in bonds they purchased during the pandemic. The threat of entrenched inflation supposedly requires central banks to respond aggressively and raise interest rates repeatedly over the course of 2022 despite tightening financial conditions and seemingly slowing economic growth. Other economists disagree, insisting that central banks have responded appropriately by not taking drastic and unnecessary action that could cause a recession. Long term inflation pricing in the bond market suggest that the inflation threat is a short-term problem and small rate increases now can more than offset the risk of runaway, long-term inflation. The bigger risk is an economic slowdown or outright recession brought on by central banks raising rates too fast while selling off hundreds of billions in bonds into a global debt market that will struggle to absorb record government deficits. Arguing for the motion is Mohamed El-Erian, President of Queens' College at Cambridge University and Chief Economic Advisor to Allianz SE Arguing against the motion is David Rosenberg, President and Chief Economist and Strategist of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc. QUOTES: MOHAMED EL-ERIAN “The Fed has to act and act boldly. Already it has lost some credibility, and if it delays more, it will lose even more credibility and have very few policy options that are attractive.” DAVID ROSENBERG “My view is that inflation is going to ultimately decline of its own accord and the historical record proves that.” Sources: CNN, CNBC, PBS, France24 The host of the Munk Debates is Rudyard Griffiths - @rudyardg. Tweet your comments about this episode to @munkdebate or comment on our Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/munkdebates/ To sign up for a weekly email reminder for this podcast, send an email to podcast@munkdebates.com. To support civil and substantive debate on the big questions of the day, consider becoming a Munk Member at https://munkdebates.com/membership Members receive access to our 10+ year library of great debates in HD video, a free Munk Debates book, newsletter and ticketing privileges at our live events. This podcast is a project of the Munk Debates, a Canadian charitable organization dedicated to fostering civil and substantive public dialogue - https://munkdebates.com/ Senior Producer: Ricki Gurwitz Editor: Reza Dahya
The Empire Club of Canada Presents: Annual Investment Outlook 2022: Making Money in Volatile Markets Speakers: David Rosenberg, Chief Economist & Strategist, Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc. Thomas Caldwell, Chairman, Caldwell Financial Ltd. Pierre Lassonde, Chairman & CEO, Firelight Investments *The content presented is free of charge but please note that the Empire Club of Canada retains copyright. Neither the speeches themselves nor any part of their content may be used for any purpose other than personal interest or research without the explicit permission of the Empire Club of Canada.* *Views and Opinions Expressed Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed by the speakers or panelists are those of the speakers or panelists and do not necessarily reflect or represent the official views and opinions, policy or position held by The Empire Club of Canada.*
Guy, Dan and Danny discuss warning signs under the market hood (2:07), oil volatility (8:31), and Thanksgiving day NFL picks (12:14). The co-hosts interview David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research and discuss the disconnect between the economy and stock market (14:28), investors crowding into mega-cap tech names (20:28), screwflation (33:08), and the rise of the retail trader (29:21). Check out a recent issue of David's widely-read daily commentary, Breakfast with Dave Register for our live event on December 8th at 12pm: MKT Call 2022 Outlook ---- See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/onthetape. ---- Shoot us an email at OnTheTape@riskreversal.com with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @OnTheTapePod. We're on social: Follow Dan Nathan @RiskReversal on Twitter Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow Danny Moses @DMoses34 on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page
**This interview originally aired via webcast on Hedgeye.com on June 17, 2021**Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough is hosting a special Real Conversations series with four leading market strategists: Inflation Tsunami: Investing During A Rising Inflationary Tide. In this edition, Keith will be joined by David Rosenberg, Chief Economist & Strategist at Rosenberg Research & Associates.
The Interview: At a time when the mainstream narrative revolves around the risk of an overheating US economy and consumer price inflation, David Rosenberg, president and chief economist & strategist of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc., is the ultimate contrarian voice. In this interview with Real Vision's Ed Harrison, Rosenberg acknowledges the strength of the US economy and is willing to switch tack if the data warrant it later this year. However, he expects, contrary to most, that the economy's vigor will fade as government stimulus does and that the post-financial crisis precautionary savings rates to go even higher in this cycle, resulting in less growth and less inflation than is priced into US equities. Rosenberg remains bullish on bonds and on Asian equities, particularly in China. Believing that alpha is king now, he thinks we have entered a stock picker's world where riding an uptrend through passive investing or in ETFs will not work. Filmed on April 27, 2021. If you want to keep up with Rosenberg's research, you can start a free 30-day trial here: https://bit.ly/3pQ4nyB. For our Listeners: Head to https://www.rocketlawyer.com/workconfidently to start your free 7-day trial today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The consensus for the economy is bullish. After a 6.4% annualized increase in real GDP, that's without inflation, in the first quarter, recent forecasts are for 10% GDP growth in the second quarter, 7.5% in the 3rd, and 5% in the fourth. As for inflation expectations, they are up. Again the consensus is that the combination of a rapidly rebounding economy, supply shortages, and tight labor market will lead to a sustained rise in prices. The most prominent skeptic on that front is Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and other Fed officials who believe the price increases we are seeing now are transitory. This week's guest, influential economist Dave Rosenberg is in the Powell camp on this one and believes the recent jump in inflation is temporary and that the overall bullishness on the economy and markets is wrong and will be challenged before the year ends. Dave Rosenberg is the outspoken and often contrarian Chief Economist and Strategist at his independent economic consulting firm Rosenberg Research. I began the interview by asking Rosenberg why he is as convinced that the bullish consensus is wrong as he was when he went against the crowd at the height of the tech bubble in 2000 and the housing bubble in 2007. WEALTHTRACK #1750 broadcast on June 11, 2021 More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/why-david-rosenberg-is-convinced-that-the-bullish-consensus-about-the-economy-and-markets-is-wrong/ For more detail about the evidence behind Dave Rosenberg's convictions, he is generously sharing a recent comprehensive report, “No New Era” with us. https://bit.ly/3io9XHu --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/wealthtrack/support
MacroVoices Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome David Rosenberg to the show where he explains why he still sees deflation as the governing force, and why he disagrees with the suddenly all-popular inflation narrative. Free 30-Day Trial to Rosenberg Research: https://bit.ly/3f2n9zI Link: https://bit.ly/3wmukbQ
20 trillion dollars of government stimulus in countries around the world. Interest rates so low there is no incentive to save. And more than half a billion vaccinated consumers ready to pull out their wallets and kick off the Roaring 20s of the 21st century. Some experts believe that a surge of inflation, such as we haven't seen since the 1970s, is now in the cards. Inflation bulls argue that the post pandemic recovery is just one of many trends converging to create rising prices for years to come. They argue that demographics and in particular an aging population that shrinks the labour force and dramatically increases health costs are accelerants for long term inflation. Skeptics argue that post pandemic recoveries typically drive prices down, not up: the mindset after experiencing a plague is to pay down debt not spend more. While the government may be printing money at a record pace, the rapid technological change brought on by COVID will ramp up automation of workforces driving wages down. And with interest rates on safer investments like bonds suppressed by central banks, aging populations will spend less, suppressing consumer demand. The spectre of a long term rise in inflation is just that, a fiction of our imaginations. Arguing for the motion is Manoj Pradhan, Founder of Talking Heads Macroeconomics based in London, England. He is also the co-author of The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, Inflation Revival. Arguing against the motion is David Rosenberg, President of Rosenberg Research in Toronto, Canada. David was previously chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch. Sources: WTVR CBS6, CNBC, Yale School of Management, Yahoo Finance The host of the Munk Debates is Rudyard Griffiths - @rudyardg. Tweet your comments about this episode to @munkdebate or comment on our Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/munkdebates/ To sign up for a weekly email reminder for this podcast, send an email to podcast@munkdebates.com. To support civil and substantive debate on the big questions of the day, consider becoming a Munk Member at https://munkdebates.com/membership Members receive access to our 10+ year library of great debates in HD video, a free Munk Debates book, newsletter and ticketing privileges at our live events. This podcast is a project of the Munk Debates, a Canadian charitable organization dedicated to fostering civil and substantive public dialogue - https://munkdebates.com/ The Munk Debates podcast is produced by Antica, Canada's largest private audio production company - https://www.anticaproductions.com/ Executive Producer: Stuart Coxe, CEO Antica Productions Senior Producer: Christina Campbell Editor: Kieran Lynch Associate Producer: Abhi Raheja
Adam Posen, Peterson Institute President, says 7% GDP is inherently going to be transitory. David Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research and Associates Chief Economist & Founder, says this pandemic is not over. Daniel Tannebaum, Oliver Wyman Partner & Americas Anti-Financial Crime Leader, reacts to the spat between U.S. President Biden and Russian President Putin. Michael Darda, MKM Partners Chief Economist & Macro Strategist, expects the Fed will tighten next year. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
The Empire Club of Canada Presents: Making Money in Today's Market Panelists: Nick Barisheff, President, BMG Group Inc. Thomas S. Caldwell, Chairman, Caldwell Financial Ltd. & Urbana Corporation David Rosenberg, Founder, Rosenberg Research and Associates Inc. *The content presented is free of charge but please note that the Empire Club of Canada retains copyright. Neither the speeches themselves nor any part of their content may be used for any purpose other than personal interest or research without the explicit permission of the Empire Club of Canada.* *Views and Opinions Expressed Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed by the speakers or panelists are those of the speakers or panelists and do not necessarily reflect or represent the official views and opinions, policy or position held by The Empire Club of Canada.*
On Feb. 25, 2020, CMG's John Mauldin and Steve Blumenthal discussed the novel coronavirus, recession and other issues potentially affecting the global and US economy and stock market with David Rosenberg, founder and chief economist of Rosenberg Research and Associates.
The Empire Club of Canada Presents: Annual Investment Outlook 2020: Making Money in Volatile Markets The Empire Club of Canada welcomed David Wolf, David Rosenberg & Nick Barisheff for the 2020 Annual Investment Outlook, to discuss ‘Making Money in Volatile Markets'. Panelists: David Wolf, Portfolio Manager, Fidelity Investments David Rosenberg, Chief Economist & Strategist, Rosenberg Research and Associates Nick Barisheff, President & Chief Executive Officer, BMG Group *The content presented is free of charge but please note that the Empire Club of Canada retains copyright. Neither the speeches themselves nor any part of their content may be used for any purpose other than personal interest or research without the explicit permission of the Empire Club of Canada.* *Views and Opinions Expressed Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed by the speakers or panelists are those of the speakers or panelists and do not necessarily reflect or represent the official views and opinions, policy or position held by The Empire Club of Canada.*
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