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How New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani's policies could impact the city's economy. Plus, an interview with David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research on macro outlooks. Kimberly-Clark's plan to acquire Kenvue. And why some GOP members of Congress support enhanced ACA tax credits. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Robert Embree, Senior Economist at Rosenberg Research, discusses what is happening to the Canadian economy and why unemployment, 7% across the country, 8% in Ontario, 10% in Toronto is still climbing. Listen on Spotify When You're Pretending to Workout: https://open.spotify.com/show/33A8EgA...Listen on Apple When You're Driving: https://creators.spotify.com/pod/prof...Follow Jimmy Connor:LinkedIn: / jimmyconnorofficial X (@jamesconnor1999): https://x.com/JamesConnor1999X (@BloorStreetCap): https://x.com/BloorStreetCap*This video/interview is not financial advice. This channel, Bloor Street Capital, is not responsible for the performance of its guests, sponsors or affiliates. WAIVER & DISCLAIMERIf you register for this webinar/interview you agree to the following: This webinar is provided for information purposes only. All opinions expressed by the individuals in this webinar/interview are solely the individuals' opinions and neither reflect the opinions, nor are made on behalf of, Bloor Street Capital Inc. Presenters will not be providing legal or financial advice to any webinar participants or any person watching a recorded version of the webinar. The investing ideas and strategies discussed on this webinar/interview are not recommendations to buy or sell any security and are not intended to provide any investment advise of any kind, but are made available solely for educational and informational purposes. Investments or strategies mentioned in this webinar/interview may not be suitable for your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any investment strategy discussed in this webinar/interview. All webinar participants or viewers of a recorded version of this webinar should obtain independent legal and financial advice. All webinar participants accept and grant permission to Bloor Street Capital Inc. and its representatives in connection with such recording. The information contained in this webinar/interview is current as of October 28 2025, the date of these recordings, unless otherwise indicated, and is provided for information purposes only. Bloor Street Capital was paid a fee for organizing and producing this event.
It's easy to feel confused these days.With the stock market at all-time highs, some analysts predict this bull market has a lot longer to run as the busiiness-friendly policies of the new Administration start adding tailwinds to the economy.Others see economic growth as imbalanced, at best, and worry that overall the trend for 2026 is downwards, risking recession and a material market correction.So, which is it?For guidance, we turn to highly-respected economist & award-winning researcher David Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research.David concludes the market is in a major price bubble not unlike the DotCom era, and advises investors to build/maintain liquidity within (at least) part of their portfolio in order to weather the bubble's bursting as well as to have dry powder to deploy at attractive valuations when it does.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#bubble #marketcorrection #bearmarket _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.
Economist Dave Rosenberg, president of Rosenberg Research, says that his preferred indicators on economic growth are showing a slowing economy, where "the recession may already be starting." He acknowledges that the stock market "hasn't figured this out," but he says — based on the way Treasuries are trading — that the bond market has already figured it out. Rosenberg says that the market has "been in a bubble environment for many, many months," but that it can continue to inflate without popping for a while. "You're investing in an environment where the wind is in your face," he says, "it's not at your back." For a decade now, Chuck has offered the trick-or-treaters in his neighborhood a chance to pick cash or candy, and the opportunity to make a trade to try to get a bigger treat. It's his way of teaching basic financial decision-making, where children must consider if the financial prize is worth more to them because it's different and more useful than candy. The game changes in small ways each year, and Chuck is unveiling a new "second chance" option that actually would be a really bad choice for the children. Chuck also talks about how you can do your own scaled-down version of cash-or-candy in your home. Discount-capture investor Rob Shaker, portfolio manager at Shaker Financial Services, says that he's "not seeing anything in the closed-end fund space that would point to any type of bubble conditions," but instead sees generic, seasonal discount-widening caused by the start of year-end tax selling. Still, he says investors should make sure they are comfortable that they can weather those flurries "and readjust to the better things that are on sale and then double-collect on the way up." Plus Jon Stubbs, analyst at Clever Real Estate talks about the housing market as measured by trends in national statistics, which have shown that homes are now on the market for longer than during the summer, with median home values up slightly but median sale prices up more, suggesting that investors are paying a premium to make a deal now.
Dan Nathan & Guy Adami break down the top market headlines and bring you stock market trade ideas for Monday, August 25th. Links Referenced: Gemini Powered Siri: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-22/apple-explores-using-google-gemini-ai-to-power-revamped-siri?utm_campaign=%5BREBRAND%5D+%5BTI-AM%5D+Th&utm_content=1095&utm_medium=email&utm_source=cio&utm_term=124 The Daily Spark: https://www.apolloacademy.com/the-daily-spark/ Rosenberg Research: https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/ -- Learn more about FactSet: https://www.factset.com/lp/mrkt-callMRKT Call is brought to you by our presenting sponsors CME Group, FactSet, SoFi & MoneyLionSign up for our emailsFollow us on Twitter @MRKTCallFollow @GuyAdami on TwitterFollow @CarterBWorth on TwitterFollow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMediaLike us on Facebook @RiskReversalWatch all of our videos on YouTube Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Dan Nathan welcomes David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research on the latest pod. The pair discuss various economic issues including U.S. trade policies, tariff implementations, and their impacts under President Trump's administration. David offers insights on the global repercussions of these tariffs, particularly focusing on their implications for inflation, domestic importers, consumers, and overall economic health. The conversation also explores how the Fed might respond to these pressures, potential market outcomes, and risk management strategies. David shares his outlook on the stock market, emphasizing the highs of the S&P 500, concerns about valuation concentration, and his preference for investments in non-U.S. equities and specific sectors like utilities, aerospace defense, and precious metals. Show Notes Norm McDonald on Germany —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media
Air Canada flight attendants vow ‘day of action' Guest: Shanyn Elliot, chair of the strike committee for the flight attendants of air canada Big changes are coming to Air Canada's Aeroplan program Guest: Patrick Sojka, founder, Rewards Canada UN Security Council holds rare Sunday meeting over Gaza as families of Hamas hostages fight for their release Guest: Matan Eshet, cousin of Hamas hostage Evyatar David. How scammers are using AI to mimic well known names in Canadian finance to steal big money Guest: David Rosenberg, founder & President, Rosenberg Research
David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes recession odds are higher than 2022 despite nobody expecting one, pointing to Fed staff forecasting 50% recession probability and the most downbeat Beige Book since 1980. Rosenberg criticizes Powell for calling the economy "solid" while real GDP has been negative sequentially in 2 of the past 3 months and survey data suggests 1% contraction. He highlights a major market dichotomy with stocks up 24% while the dollar is in an 11% bear market, suggesting something is fundamentally wrong. The housing market faces a negative wealth effect as supply-demand gaps widen and prices start cracking.Sponsors: Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia Links: https://rosenbergresearch.com/https://x.com/EconguyRosieTimestamps: 00:01 - Introduction: Dave Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research 00:49 - "Meat grinder roller coaster ride" - elevated policy uncertainty02:15 - Tail risks removed: no trade war, regional conflict, or fiscal cliff05:35 - S&P 500 multiple expansion: 18 to 22 in three months (4 sigma event) 08:30 - Housing market in "huge state of disarray" - prices starting to crack11:22 - Survey data consistent with economy contracting at 1% annual rate13:20 - Real GDP negative sequentially in 2 of past 3 months 15:24 - Nobody talking about recession despite higher odds than 202218:18 - Recession probabilities are binary - "zero or 100, not 60% pregnant" 21:18 - Mistakes from 2022-2023: didn't anticipate fiscal stimulus scale25:34 - Big beautiful bill not stimulative - just extending status quo 28:20 - Housing supply-demand gap widening, negative wealth effect coming32:42 - S&P 500 became growth index, small caps still in correction 36:00 - Fed staff said recession odds equal to GDP baseline forecast (50%)38:56 - Beige book: economy declining slightly, more downbeat than 200744:32 - Powell calling economy "solid" despite weak data - credibility issue48:04 - Fed damaged by "transitory" mistake, protecting legacy 55:17 - Next Fed Chair speculation: wants someone he can "push around"59:04 - US dollar down 11% in bear market while stocks up 24% 01:04:13 - Closing: importance of liquidity and diversification
Guy Adami and Dan Nathan host economist David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research on the RiskReversal podcast to discuss the state of the market, economic conditions, and geopolitical factors. Rosenberg outlines the volatility seen in the S&P 500, emphasizing that recent market moves are sentiment and momentum-driven rather than based on fundamentals. He highlights concerns about a potential topping formation in the market and discusses the impact of tariff policies, the labor market, the housing market, and global geopolitical tensions, particularly around Israel and Iran. Rosenberg also shares his views on inflation, interest rates, and the potential for recession, suggesting that the economy may already be contracting. The discussion concludes with a focus on risks in the private equity and debt markets and the potential for pension funds to be the center of the next financial crisis. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media
Interview recorded - 30th of May, 2025On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of welcoming back David Rosenberg. David is the Founder & President of Rosenberg Research & associates.During our conversation we spoke about his current outlook on markets, how the economy could already be in a recession, tariffs, rebalancing of trade, corporate margins, stock market and more. I hope you enjoy!0:00 - Introduction1:53- Current Economic Outlook?2:39 - Tariffs6:35 - Rebalancing trade15:23 - Corporate margin issue?18:47 - Long bond issue?21:42 - Stock market24:02 - US underperforming25:22 - Assets David currently likes34:02 - One message to takeaway?David Rosenberg is the Founder and President of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc., an economic consulting firm he established in January 2020. He and his team have as their top priority providing investors with analysis and insights to help them make well-informed investment decisions.Prior to Rosenberg Research, David was Chief Economist & Strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. from 2009 to 2019. From 2002 to 2009, he was Chief North American Economist at Merrill Lynch in New York, during which he was consistently ranked in the Institutional Investor All-Star analyst rankings. Prior thereto, he was Chief Economist and Strategist for Merrill Lynch Canada, based out of Toronto, where he and his team placed first in the Brendan Wood survey of Canadian economists for ten years in a row.Mr. Rosenberg is a frequent contributor to most major financial newspapers and publications in North America and makes regular TV appearances in the financial media. He received both a Bachelor of Arts and Masters of Arts degree in Economics from the University of Toronto.David Rosenberg - Website - https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/Twitter - https://twitter.com/EconguyRosieArticle - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/lament-bear-david-rosenberg-tpxzcLinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-rosenberg-40800219b/WTFinance -Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfniTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas
As worldwide tariff uncertainty persists and US-China tensions continue to escalate, are President Trump's trade policies speeding the economy into recession?For guidance, we turn to highly-respected economist & award-winning researcher David Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com_____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.
In this explosive episode of Soar Financially, we welcome Robert Embree, Senior Economist at Rosenberg Research, to unpack the growing economic storm. From Trump's tariff shocks to the global slowdown, Robert shares what most analysts are still missing.We break down the recession probabilities, a shaky bond market, energy-driven inflation, disinflation, and why gold is the only asset standing tall. Is the Fed too late again? Will capital flee U.S. markets for good? And what's really driving the dollar's decline?Robert also discusses how Canada's political shift could alter trade dynamics—and why the labor market delay might be over.#Recession2025 #TariffWar #GoldRally------------
Listen to The Hub's experts daily during the campaign as they unpack the stories making the news during the election. Today's show features David Rosenberg, the founder and president of Rosenberg Research, and Darrell Bricker, Hub contributor and CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs. This program airs daily live on YouTube at 10am ET Monday to Friday. To tune in to the live show visit https://www.youtube.com/@TheHubCanada/live. It is also available on The Hub's YouTube page as an on-demand video. If you have questions or comments you'd like our hosts and guests to take up on the show email livestream@thehub.ca. For more election coverage from The Hub visit www.thehub.ca or subscribe to our free daily election email newsletter at https://thehub.ca/join/. Be sure to subscribe to this channel to get alerts for The Hub's latest election related videos. For more information on The Hub and why it is the fastest growing independent news site in Canada visit https://thehub.ca/about-the-hub/. Thanks for listening!
Guy Adami and Dan Nathan are joined by David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research, to discuss notable economic developments and their implications. The episode covers the Federal Reserve's recent stance on monetary policy, adjustments in GDP and inflation forecasts, and the potential onset of stagflation. Rosenberg elaborates on the impact of tariffs, fiscal policies, and the prolonged economic uncertainty on consumer behavior and corporate CapEx. He also highlights historical parallels and the prospects of a recession, while offering his perspective on inflation trends and the equity market's current outlook. — FOLLOW US YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia Instagram: @riskreversalmedia Twitter: @RiskReversal LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media
David Rosenberg believes that the investment community has collectively lost their minds, as they continue to pile in and double-down on a small handful of tech stocks whose valuations are nowhere near reflecting reality. David sees striking similarities between today's market and the dot com bubble and he thinks that when the dust settles, investors who kept their wits about them and didn't buy into the hype could be well-positioned to take advantage of bargain basement prices.Rosenberg Research: https://rosenbergresearch.comFollow Jesse Day on X: https://x.com/jessebdayCommodity Culture on Youtube: https://youtube.com/c/CommodityCulture
For the 50th episode of The Unlimited Podcast, we welcome back David Rosenberg, Founder and President of Rosenberg Research. David founded Rosenberg Research in January 2020 after an illustrious, three-decade career on Wall Street and Bay Street as an economist and market strategist. With the start of 2025 and Trump's recent inauguration, Brian seeks to uncover David's best views and thoughts on the markets, the economy, Trump's proposed tariffs and the like. In other words, what should investors be thinking and doing in 2025? This is a "must-listen" episode for anyone seeking opportunity amid uncertainty! A video of the entire interview is accessible below. https://youtu.be/tTgpC_rq27s Timestamps 0:00 Disclaimer & Intro 03:16 Uncertainty for 2025 11:22 David's thoughts on U.S. valuations 24:55 Expectations for U.S. equities 34:02 Why is Canada a good place to be? 47:43 Should investors focus on convert CAD to USD? 53:40 Rosie's best advice for 2025 57:11 Outro
With equity markets soaring in 2024 and inflation risks looming, are we heading for a major correction? Rosenberg Research's Dylan Smith joins James Connor to break down 2025's critical market and economic trends, from bubbly markets and the Fed's Powell pivot to the stark contrast between U.S. growth and Canada's vulnerabilities. Explore how Trump's tariff policies, shifting central bank strategies, and global uncertainties could reshape the financial landscape of 2025. Investment Concerns? Get a free portfolio review with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors at https://bit.ly/420UWlC Chapters: 0:48 - Why Markets Reacted to Powell's Hawkish Cut 4:18 - Inflation Fears: Is the Fed Overreacting? 9:28 - What's Driving the U.S. Economy's Resilience? 13:07 - Is the Fed Making Another Policy Error? 15:16 - The Powell Pivot: Is It Political? 16:49 - Canada's Economic Struggles in 2025 18:37 - Could U.S. Tariffs Devastate Canada's Economy? 21:39 - U.S. vs. Canada: How Dependent Are Their Economies on Exports? 23:22 - Immigration's Surprising Impact on Canada's GDP 27:38 - Rising Unemployment in Canada: What's Behind It? 29:52 - Is Canada Headed for a Recession in 2025? 33:27 - Why the Canadian Dollar is at a 20-Year Low 35:41 - Canada's Debt Advantage Over the U.S. 38:20 - Key Takeaways: Risks for the U.S. and Canada in 2025 Connect with us online: Website: https://www.wealthion.com X: https://www.x.com/wealthion Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/wealthionofficial/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/wealthion/ #Wealthion #Wealth #Finance #Investing #Economy #MarketCrash #Inflation #Stocks #FederalReserve #EconomicTrends #FinancialPlanning #MoneyManagement #EconomicOutlook #StockMarket #FinancialFreedom #USEconomy #CanadianEconomy #Tariffs #PowellPivot #MarketInsights #InvestmentStrategies #2025Economy ____________________________________ IMPORTANT NOTE: The information, opinions, and insights expressed by our guests do not necessarily reflect the views of Wealthion. They are intended to provide a diverse perspective on the economy, investing, and other relevant topics to enrich your understanding of these complex fields. While we value and appreciate the insights shared by our esteemed guests, they are to be viewed as personal opinions and not as investment advice or recommendations from Wealthion. These opinions should not replace your own due diligence or the advice of a professional financial advisor. We strongly encourage all of our audience members to seek out the guidance of a financial advisor who can provide advice based on your individual circumstances and financial goals. Wealthion has a distinguished network of advisors who are available to guide you on your financial journey. However, should you choose to seek guidance elsewhere, we respect and support your decision to do so. The world of finance and investment is intricate and diverse. It's our mission at Wealthion to provide you with a variety of insights and perspectives to help you navigate it more effectively. We thank you for your understanding and your trust. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
On this episode of Animal Spirits: Talk Your Book, Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson are joined by David Rosenberg, Founder and President of Rosenberg Research, to discuss David's macro track record, thoughts on where the economy is today, what Powell has gotten wrong, why the momentum trade has been working, David's economic views for 2025, policy uncertainty moving forward, and more. Find complete show notes on our blogs... Ben Carlson's A Wealth of Common Sense Michael Batnick's The Irrelevant Investor Feel free to shoot us an email at animalspirits@thecompoundnews.com with any feedback, questions, recommendations, or ideas for future topics of conversation. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The material discussed has been provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as legal or investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security or strategy. The investment strategy and themes discussed herein may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial situation. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable though its accuracy is not guaranteed. Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/ Important Disclosures from VanEck: https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/talk-your-book-vaneck-disclosures Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
As 2024 comes to a close, we invite you to reflect on the year with us through some of the most memorable quotes and highlights from The Unlimited Podcast. In this brief, 7-minute recap, you'll hear standout moments from each of our guests, Brian's insightful reflections, and a few laughs along the way. Relive the best of 2024 with us! Let's Go! Stay tuned for another great year of The Unlimited Podcast in 2025, kicking off in January with the economic outlook from David Rosenberg, Founder & President of Rosenberg Research. See you on the flipside.
Interview recorded - 12th of December, 2024On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of welcoming back David Rosenberg. David is the Founder & President of Rosenberg Research & associates.During our conversation we spoke about 2024, what David was surprised about in the year, the lament of a bear, what to expect in 2025, tight credit spread, secular shift in bond, where David is bullish and more. I hope you enjoy!0:00 - Introduction1:21 - David's year review2:48 - Lament of a bear8:35 - Earnings remain strong14:55 - Credit spreads tight24:33 - Secular shift in bonds?30:30 - Continued rate cuts?35:49 - Where is David bullish?41:27 - One message to takeawayDavid Rosenberg is the Founder and President of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc., an economic consulting firm he established in January 2020. He and his team have as their top priority providing investors with analysis and insights to help them make well-informed investment decisions.Prior to Rosenberg Research, David was Chief Economist & Strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. from 2009 to 2019. From 2002 to 2009, he was Chief North American Economist at Merrill Lynch in New York, during which he was consistently ranked in the Institutional Investor All-Star analyst rankings. Prior thereto, he was Chief Economist and Strategist for Merrill Lynch Canada, based out of Toronto, where he and his team placed first in the Brendan Wood survey of Canadian economists for ten years in a row.Mr. Rosenberg is a frequent contributor to most major financial newspapers and publications in North America and makes regular TV appearances in the financial media. He received both a Bachelor of Arts and Masters of Arts degree in Economics from the University of Toronto.David Rosenberg - Website - https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/Twitter - https://twitter.com/EconguyRosieArticle - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/lament-bear-david-rosenberg-tpxzcLinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-rosenberg-40800219b/WTFinance -Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfniTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas
Dan and Guy are joined by David Rosenberg, the founder of Rosenberg Research. They cover his recent 'Lament of a Bear' report, where Rosenberg reflects on his stock market predictions, acknowledging the unexpected impact of AI and generative technologies on market performance. They delve into the significant rise in market multiples driven by growth in AI, especially since May 2023 with Nvidia's strong performance. Rosenberg explains the potential overpricing of stocks, influenced by high investor confidence and passive investing trends. He also discusses the implications of current and future interest rate environments, inflation expectations, and the role of the Federal Reserve in shaping market outlooks. The conversation touches on the concept of equity risk premium and the potential risks of market corrections. Rosenberg shares his cautious stance and emphasizes the importance of staying informed on economic cycles and reading historical market analyses. Subscribe to our newsletter: https://riskreversalmedia.beehiiv.com/subscribe — About the Show: On The Tape is a weekly podcast with CNBC Fast Money's Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses. They're offering takes on the biggest market-moving headlines of the week, trade ideas, in-depth analysis, tips and advice. Each episode, they are joined by prominent Wall Street participants to help viewers make smarter investment decisions. Bear market, bull market, recession, inflation or deflation… we're here to help guide your portfolio into the green. Risk Reversal brings you years of experience from former Wall Street insiders trading stocks to experts in the commodity market. — Check out our show notes here See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/onthetape. — Shoot us an email at OnTheTape@riskreversal.com with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @OnTheTapePod on Twitter or @riskreversalmedia on Threads — We're on social: Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow Danny Moses @DMoses34 on Twitter Follow Liz Thomas @LizThomasStrat on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.
Rosenberg Research President David Rosenberg discusses his outlook for the Fed and upcoming rate decisions. He speaks with Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
David Rosenberg, Founder of Rosenberg Research, issues a bold warning about an impending market bubble burst, citing “stupid expensive” valuations as markets buy in the impact of Trump's policy agenda. He joins Anthony Scaramucci in this exclusive post-election interview to explain why inflation, political polarization, and soaring debt levels could destabilize the economy, leaving investors exposed to serious risk. Rosenberg advises shifting to safe-haven assets like gold and bonds to protect against the fallout he sees as inevitable. He also discusses how geopolitical conflicts, particularly with Iran and U.S.-China tensions, add further volatility to an already uncertain market. A must-watch Speak Up conversation! Investment Concerns? Get a free portfolio review with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors at https://bit.ly/3YKy5rn Chapters: 2:09 - Why Is the Market So Bullish Post-Election? 8:56 - Reaction of Bond Markets and Inflation Concerns 12:14 - Trump's Policies and Potential Market & Economic Impact 15:44 - Can Trump End The Fed's Independence? 18:12 - Geopolitical Risks Under Trump: Iran, Ukraine, Israel, and U.S.-China Relations 23:22 - Audience Question: Safe-Haven Assets For Volatile Markets? 27:18 - Audience Question: Key Commodities to Watch? 29:55 - Audience Question: Crypto Exuberance After Trump Win Justified? 32:16 - Audience Question: How To Prepare for a U.S. Debt Crisis? 34:24 - Audience Question: Impact of Weakening Global Economic Cooperation? 37:02 - Audience Question: Political Polarization and Economic Stability 42:59 - Was It A Vote For Donald Trump Or A Vote Against Kamala Harris? Connect with us online: Website: https://www.wealthion.com X: https://www.x.com/wealthion Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/wealthionofficial/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/wealthion/ #Wealthion #Wealth #Finance #Investing #Economy #MarketBubble #DavidRosenberg #AnthonyScaramucci #Inflation #Geopolitics #SafeHavenAssets #PostElection #StockMarket #Gold #Bonds #Trump #USChina #Iran #FinancialAdvice Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In episode 203, David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, joined Julia to discuss the current economic landscape and his outlook for the future. ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨ Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond's yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond's YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account. In this episode, Rosenberg challenged the prevailing optimism about the U.S. economy, arguing that the apparent strength in GDP numbers is largely due to unsustainable government spending. He highlighted discrepancies between official data and other economic indicators, suggesting that the economy may be weaker than it appears. Rosenberg expressed concern about the stock market's high valuations, drawing parallels to previous market bubbles. He warned of potential risks, including a possible recession in 2025, and discussed the dangers of excessive exposure to equities, particularly among older investors. Rosenberg advocated for a more defensive investment strategy, recommending an increased allocation to bonds and gold, while maintaining a cautious approach to equities. Throughout the conversation, he emphasized the importance of understanding historical patterns and the risks of "new era" thinking in financial markets. Links: https://rosenbergresearch.com/ https://x.com/EconguyRosie Timestamps: 00:23 Introduction and overview of current economic situation 01:03 Discussion on GDP growth and survey data divergence 02:57 Analysis of the Fed's Beige Book and economic indicators 05:19 Impact of government spending on GDP numbers 08:18 Discussion on fiscal policy and upcoming election 10:49 Analysis of government employment data and labor market 13:31 Long-term effects of fiscal policy 15:15 Lack of capital spending cycle and global economic slowdown 17:37 Diffusion analysis of the US economy 19:54 Potential fiscal policy changes after the election 21:10 Discussion on potential recession and historical comparisons 25:15 Analysis of interest rates and debt service costs 27:43 Lags in economic policy effects 31:35 Job report revisions and data reliability issues 35:43 Stock market valuation and earnings growth 39:21 Risks in current stock market valuations 42:26 Discussion on portfolio rebalancing and asset allocation 46:40 Concerns about passive index investing 50:01 Potential impact of stock market decline on the economy 54:15 Investment strategy and portfolio allocation 57:22 Approach to investing in bonds 01:00:45 Total return expectations for bonds 01:02:27 Parting thoughts
2023 was the year of the recession that wasn't. 2024 is looking to be the year of the hard landing that wasn't. How is 2025 shaping up to look like? For guidance we turn to highly-respected economist & award-winning researcher David Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research. David is very concerned that investors, especially the 70 million Baby Boomers, are "all in" the markets. Boomer portfolios are 60% allocated to stocks. David thinks it should be half(!) of that. He predicts that when we enter a bear market next -- which he thinks is nearer than most expect -- a brutal consumer recession will ensue. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bearmarket #recession #deflation --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support
We have not YET seen a recession in Canada or the U.S., at least from a “headline” GDP standpoint. But on a per-capita/ex-immigration basis, Canada is already there...and the U.S. may not be far behind. That's what Dylan Smith, vice president and senior economist at Rosenberg Research, told me for this week's MoneyShow MoneyMasters Podcast segment, recorded on-site at our recent Toronto conference.In Dylan's view, stimulus checks from the U.S. government padded consumer spending during and after the pandemic. But the savings Americans accumulated have now been “spent down” – leaving spending from high-end consumers as one of the only supports left for the economy. Meanwhile, “distortions” and “false assumptions” about the strength of the labor market are concerning...and investors “don't appreciate how much slack is opening up for the economy.” In Dylan's take, central banks in both the U.S. and Canada will continue to cut interest rates well into next year to combat emerging weakness. But it may come too late for North America's twin economic powerhouses.We then pivot to a discussion of what investors should do in response. Dylan reveals the one asset class he is a “perma-bull” on…which foreign markets look more attractive due to their undervaluation and secular growth outlook...and what to do if you've reaped big gains on tech stocks in a strong year for the Nasdaq. For more on-site insights from experts like Dylan, join us for the 2024 MoneyShow Orlando, scheduled for Oct. 17-19 at the Omni Orlando Resort at ChampionsGate. Click here to register: https://orlandomoneyshow.com/?scode=061246
David Rosenberg joins Anthony Scaramucci on Speak Up to warn and explain why a recession is looming. Highlighting the dangers of a widespread “soft landing” complacency and overexposure to equities, David, the Founder and President of Rosenberg Research, draws parallels to past crises and explains why current conditions are setting investors up for a major downturn. Together, they discuss the risks of the Federal Reserve's policy mistakes, rising unemployment, and why the past decade's passive investing boom could be the next bubble to burst. Investment Concerns? Get a free portfolio review with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.wealthion.com/free This interview is sponsored by BetterHelp. Give online therapy a try and get on your way to being your best self at https://www.betterhelp.com/Wealthion Chapters: 0:32 - David Rosenberg's Background and Career Path 4:20 - Spotting Economic Crises Early: Lessons from 2007-2008 10:14 - Fed Policy, Interest Rates, and Market Vulnerabilities 21:53 - Recession Is Staring Us In The Face 30:02 - Audience Question: Defensive Sector Recommendations 31:36 - Audience Question: Risk of Stagflation? 34:01 - Audience Question: Fiscal Spending and Inflation? 36:33 - Audience Question: Emerging Markets Opportunities? 38:39 - Audience Question: David's View on Gold? 41:06 - Impact of US Election Results on the Economy Connect with us online: Website: https://www.wealthion.com X: https://www.x.com/wealthion Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/wealthionofficial/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/wealthion/ #DavidRosenberg #AnthonyScaramucci #RecessionWarning #Recession #Economy #Finance #Investing #Markets #Fed #FinancialCrisis #InvestmentStrategies #Gold #Wealthion #Wealth Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Dylan Smith, VP and Senior Economist at Rosenberg Research, joins Wealthion's Andrew Brill to discuss the current state of the economy, the Fed's next moves, and whether a recession is inevitable. Dylan also delves into the normalization of the post-pandemic labor market, the divergence between old-economy and green-economy commodities, risks and opportunities in markets like U.S. Treasuries, and much more. Investment Concerns? Get a free portfolio review with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.wealthion.com This episode is sponsored by BetterHelp. Give online therapy a try at https://www.betterhelp.com/Wealthion and get on your way to being your best self. Timestamps: 00:56 - Fed Strategy, Economic Outlook & Labor Market Insights 09:03 - Can We Avoid a Recession? 12:02 - Is the Fed Too Late in Cutting Rates? 17:05 - Consumer Sentiment & the Stock Market Wealth Effect 26:38 - Opportunities in Treasuries & Safe Investment Strategies 31:23 - Recession-Proof Stocks & Thoughts on the Real Estate Sector 40:24 - Nvidia Earnings, AI Hype & Dylan's Outlook on Global Commodities Connect with us online: Website: https://www.wealthion.com X: https://www.x.com/wealthion Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/wealthionofficial/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/wealthion/ #Fed #EconomicOutlook #Recession #InterestRates #StockMarket #Investing #Treasuries #RealEstate #AI #Nvidia #Commodities #FinancialMarkets #MarketAnalysis #Economy #stocks #wealth #Finance #Money #Wealthion
In the latest episode of Market Overtime, David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research joins Oliver Renick to discuss why he thinks the stock market is overvalued, why A.I. reminds him of the Dotcom bubble, and why investing in Gold and bonds is a better play than stocks currently. #stocks #stockmarket #ai #artificialintelligence #financialmarket #gold #bonds #investing #finance #rates #rate #treasuries #financial 0:00-1:55 Introduction 1:56-3:42 Dollar Falls below 100 in next 12 months? 3:43-5:25 What Happens if Dollar Continues to Fall 5:26-10:30 "Don't Put All Your Eggs in One Basket" 10:31-13:50 Income Focused Strategies 13:51-19:35 Bitcoin, A.I. and the "Bubble" Word 19:36-25:00 Gauging Risk Levels 25:01-28:55 Recession Probability ======== Schwab Network ======== Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribe Download the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-... Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-... Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/19192... Watch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplu... Watch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-net... Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
In this episode of Wealthion, Andrew Brill sits down with Dylan Smith, Vice President and Senior Economist at Rosenberg Research, to delve into the current state of the economy. They discuss the signals of an impending economic downturn, the anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and the broader implications of these changes for both investors and the general public. Dylan provides a detailed analysis of inflation trends, labor market shifts, and the potential political impacts on fiscal policy. TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 - Powell's Next Moves 00:49 - Introduction of Dylan Smith 01:19 - Current State of Economy 02:24 - Economic Data Revisions 04:44 - Inflation and Interest Rates 05:48 - Unemployment Importance 07:21 - Labor Market Easing 08:17 - Interest Rates Discussion 09:15 - Political Implications 11:14 - Election Impact on Inflation 15:39 - CPI and PPI Expectations 17:13 - Rate Cut Hints 21:18 - Market Reactions 33:02 - Market Volatility Concerns 39:56 - US National Debt
Join James Connor as he sits down with renowned economist David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research to discuss the dark clouds looming over the US and Canadian economies. Despite recent highs in the S&P and Nasdaq, Rosenberg warns of imminent economic downturns that could have devastating effects. From rising delinquency rates in consumer credit to the bursting of the Canadian housing bubble, tune in to discover a what lies ahead for our economy and your portfolio. TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 - Introduction 01:00 - David Rosenberg's View on US Economy 04:00 - GDP Growth and Consumer Behavior 08:45 - Impact of Government Spending 12:04 - Housing Market Analysis 14:39 - Federal Reserve Policies 16:56 - Potential US Recession 18:52 - Canadian Economy Deep Dive 28:22 - Canadian Housing Bubble 30:02 - Canadian Politics and Economy 33:07 - Stimulating the Economy 36:12 - Investment Strategies for the Future 41:22 - Closing
MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome back, Rosenberg Research founder David Rosenberg. They discuss, the stock market and why David believes the breadth isn't there, and the outperformance of SPX is really just three out of the 500 stocks in the index. https://bit.ly/3VRJtBA ⚫ Check Out Rosenberg Research: https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/ ⚫ Follow David Rosenberg on X: https://www.twitter.com/econguyrosie
David Rosenberg warns of potential economic turmoil due to surging productivity in most sectors but a ticking time bomb in construction and a growing wealth gap. On this episode of ‘Speak Up with Anthony Scaramucci,' David Rosenberg, Founder and President of Rosenberg Research, joins to discuss the issues facing the economy. Rosenberg discusses the unusual productivity surge in the U.S. economy, while highlighting significant risks in the construction sector that could lead to widespread layoffs. He also sheds light on the economic disparity between high-income earners and the average worker, raising concerns about the long-term implications for economic stability and political dynamics. Timestamps: 0:57 – Introduction 1:56 – Fed Rate Cuts Discussion 6:00 – Housing Market Dynamics 9:29 – Economic Disparity & Wealth Gap 10:45 – Impact of Fiscal Policies 17:33 – Treasury Market & Inflation 20:47 – Recession Risks & Economic Outlook 21:07 – Stock Market Valuations & Risks 24:11 – Speculative Market Behaviors 25:47 – Long-Term Investment Strategies 25:59 – Closing
Give us Your Feedback.David Rosenberg is bullish for the long term when it comes to the gold market and he argues that while gold used to correlate with commodities and real interest rates, it is now diverging into a category of its own: money with no counterparty risk. David also gives his outlook on the broad commodities market, uranium, energy, and much more. Rosenberg Research: https://www.rosenbergresearch.com30-day Free Trial (mention Commodity Culture): https://hub.rosenbergresearch.com/free-trialEmail: information@rosenbergresearch.comFollow Dave on X: https://x.com/EconguyRosie Follow Jesse Day on X: https://twitter.com/jessebdayCommodity Culture on Youtube: https://youtube.com/c/CommodityCulture
Dave Rosenberg, president of Rosenberg Research, says that anyone believing a no-landing scenario believes in pixie dust, and that investors are mistaking record highs on the stock market for a booming economy. He sees the economy as cooling off, and warning signs building, and notes that the Federal Reserve is too focused on lagging indicators, but the trouble they have been guarding against is still coming. Meanwhile, Rosenberg says investors aren't getting paid to take on equity risk, so he is happy in being in money markets and bonds while he waits for conditions to change. Also on the show, Stephen Dover, chief market strategist at Franklin Templeton — head of the Franklin Templeton Institute — digs into his research on just how much election results actually matter for the market, and Will Rhind, chief executive officer at GraniteShares, talks in the Market Call about investing in disruptive stocks.
In this Weekly Market Recap, Andrew Brill reflects on the interviews that took place on Wealthion over the past week in another Wealthion Weekly Market Recap! This week, Peter Boockvar, of Bleakly Financial and The Boock Report, discussed the economic pressure points of high rates, housing challenges, and economic shifts in the U.S., along with investment trends and projections he's observing. On Speak Up, Anthony Scaramucci spoke with Staci Warden.On Next Week on the Trading Floor, Jon Najarian shared his thoughts on The Fed keeping rates unchanged and mentioned three new stocks to look out for, as well as unusual options trading activity. Additionally, Dylan Smith of Rosenberg Research spoke to us about earnings trends this week and what he's seeing in terms of an economic slowdown. He also touched on what lies ahead for consumers and businesses, the rising debt, and the impact this year's election could have on the economy. With artificial intelligence being all the talk again this earnings season, AI expert Sol Rashidi explains how AI can revolutionize financial advising. Finally, Staci Warden, the CEO of the Alogrand Foundation, spoke about blockchain's impact on transaction costs and security on Speak Up with Anthony Scaramucci. We are partnering with SALT to offer our Wealthion community an exclusive opportunity to access a full day of top-tier financial insights and networking opportunities — all from the comfort of your own home and at a fraction of the cost of attending in person. Learn more here: https://wealthion.com/lp/salt24conference/ TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 - Intro 00:52 - Stubborn Inflation & Debt Crisis | Peter Boockvar, Bleakly Financial Group Full Interview: https://youtu.be/ajmL_0o2848 16:06 - Is the Economic Downturn Just Beginning? | Dylan Smith, Rosenberg Research Full Interview: https://youtu.be/e7tuhy4QMJA 27:09 - Next Week on the Trading Floor | Jon Najarian Full Interview: https://youtu.be/0co4bLDTjS4 35:35 - Unlocking AI's in Jobs, Investing, and the Future | Sol Rashidi Full Interview: https://youtu.be/Am9KgxaR4X0 45:19 - Speak up with Anthony Scaramucci | Staci Warden Full Interview: https://youtu.be/PknexOU2sh0 1:05:19 - Closing
Today's guest expert just released a warning that the official jobs data reported by the government are "overstated by historical proportions" And when the downward revisions get released, it will shock both the Federal Reserve and the financial markets. For the details on this, we turn to the man who wrote the report, highly-respected economist & award-winning researcher David Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research. Visit David at https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/ WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #jobs #recession2024 #interestrates
In this episode, Andrew Brill is joined by Dylan Smith, Vice President & Senior Economist at Rosenberg Research. Andrew and Dylan will dive into the aftermath of the recent Fed meeting, their latest decision to not cut rates, the unexpected twists in Q1 earnings, and where the economy appears to be headed to next. Dylan will also share his insights on: * Why inflation is hovering above 3% * The rise of gold and Bitcoin following massive debt concerns * The slowdown in wage growth and how it's impacting consumer spending * The Fed's shifting stance on rate cuts * How to protect your wealth amidst economic uncertainty Timestamps: 0:00 - Introduction & Wealthion Conference Announcement 0:53 - Dylan Smith's Take on the Current Economy 3:00 - Nonfarm Payrolls & Economic Weakness Beneath the Surface 8:43 - Jerome Powell's Inflation Outlook 10:11 - Inflation Stubbornness & Service Industry Pressures 15:47 - Earnings Season Trends & Economic Slowdown 18:35 - Inflation, Wage Growth & Real Income Catch-Up 21:11 - The Fed's Bond Market Impact & Debt Challenges 29:18 - Dealing with the U.S. Debt Crisis 32:26 - Bitcoin, Gold, & Protecting Your Wealth 41:03 - Dylan Smith's Podcast & where to find him 42:23 - Conclusion
On this episode of “On The Tape,” David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research joins Dan Nathan and Guy Adami for the full show! Topics they hit include what the bears got wrong about the stock market (2:30), market concentration (8:00), liquidity (11:45), the AI boom comparisons to the dot com bubble (14:00), the read on the broader market (25:45), the move in commodities (35:30), did the Fed f' up? (37:30), why it's not always about the economy (41:00), what could cause a pullback in equities (43:00), and the potential for a currency crisis (45:00). The Autumn 2000 of Cisco's Discontent The indie AI companies are falling apart (Platformer News) After ‘Panic,' Nvidia's AI Chips Are Becoming Easier to Find (The Information) Databricks CEO Predicts Major Drop in AI Chip Prices (The Information) Amazon, Google Quietly Tamp Down Generative AI Expectations (The Information) -- Subscribe to our newsletter: https://riskreversalmedia.beehiiv.com/subscribe About the Show: On The Tape is a weekly podcast with CNBC Fast Money's Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses. They're offering takes on the biggest market-moving headlines of the week, trade ideas, in-depth analysis, tips and advice. Each episode, they are joined by prominent Wall Street participants to help viewers make smarter investment decisions. Bear market, bull market, recession, inflation or deflation… we're here to help guide your portfolio into the green. Risk Reversal brings you years of experience from former Wall Street insiders trading stocks to experts in the commodity market. Shoot us an email at contact@riskreversal.com with any feedback, suggestions, or questions Key Links: Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UBZcBe Follow On The Tape on Twitter: https://twitter.com/OnTheTapePod Subscribe to our newsletter: https://riskreversal.com/sign-up/ Subscribe to our YouTube page: https://www.youtube.com/@RiskReversalMedia #investing #stocks #stockmarket The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.
In this episode, James Connor of Bloor Street Capital, and economic oracle David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research, dive into the unsettling truths of the 2024 economy. Rosenberg reveals the potential for significant economic downturn and wealth erosion in 2024. With an uncanny blend of humor and insight, he exposes the misleading job reports, the phantom strength of the housing market, and the precarious position of the consumer credit bubble. This discussion stretches beyond the US, offering a grim look at Canada's economic pitfalls and the global implications of these trends. If you're looking for a wake-up call on the economic realities of 2024 and want to know how to safeguard your financial future in these turbulent times, this episode is a must-watch. Timestamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:46 - The False Prosperity of Today's Economy with David Rosenberg 10:47 - The Truth Behind Job Reports: A Crisis in the Making 14:09 - Interest Rate Illusions and the Fed's Tightrope 24:38 - The Consumer Credit Bubble: On the Brink of Bursting 33:33 - Decoding Inflation: The Hidden Reality 37:07 - Navigating the Federal Debt Minefield 39:51 - Canada's Economic Quagmire: A Warning to the World 44:07 - The Housing Market Facade: A Looming Reset 48:28 - Historical Echoes: Comparing Economic Cycles 52:58 - Wrapping Up: Strategies for Financial Resilience
Interview recorded - 19th of March, 2024On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of welcoming back David Rosenberg. David is the Founder & President of Rosenberg Research & associates.During our conversation we spoke about why the recession is still on horizon despite market strength, whether we're in a new economy, whether the FED are taking the right action, unwinding of private credit markets, which assets to perform and more!0:00 - Introduction2:14 - Why have we not seen a recession yet?4:32 - Are we in a new economy since COVID?12:12 - Will recession impact markets?17:55 - Are higher interest rates stimulatory?25:22 - Recession is not about if, but about when27:32 - Atlanta FED GDP predictions quite accurate32:02 - What should the FED be doing?33:52 - FED cutting bullish scenario?35:37 - Unwinding of private credit markets?41:22 - Which assets to perform?48:07 - One message to takeaway from our conversation?David Rosenberg is the Founder and President of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc., an economic consulting firm he established in January 2020. He and his team have as their top priority providing investors with analysis and insights to help them make well-informed investment decisions.Prior to Rosenberg Research, David was Chief Economist & Strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. from 2009 to 2019. From 2002 to 2009, he was Chief North American Economist at Merrill Lynch in New York, during which he was consistently ranked in the Institutional Investor All-Star analyst rankings. Prior thereto, he was Chief Economist and Strategist for Merrill Lynch Canada, based out of Toronto, where he and his team placed first in the Brendan Wood survey of Canadian economists for ten years in a row.Mr. Rosenberg is a frequent contributor to most major financial newspapers and publications in North America and makes regular TV appearances in the financial media. He received both a Bachelor of Arts and Masters of Arts degree in Economics from the University of Toronto.David Rosenberg - Website - https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/Twitter - https://twitter.com/EconguyRosieLinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-rosenberg-40800219b/WTFinance -Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfniTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas
Economist David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, shares his macroeconomic view of the economy and explains why he's not throwing in the towel on his recession call. Rosenberg highlights the importance of understanding the business cycle and the impact of interest rates. While many economists have thrown in the towel on their recession calls, Rosenberg remains in the recession camp, pointing out that the economy is weaker than the narrative suggests. He also emphasizes looking at the full picture, noting the divergences in various economic indicators. Elsewhere, Rosenberg provides insights into the Federal Reserve's rate policy and its implications for bond and equity markets. Rosenberg is bullish on bonds and explains how you could make a 20% total return in the 30-year Treasury. SPECIAL OFFER: Viewers and listeners of The Julia La Roche Show can access a free 30-day trial of Rosenberg Research with no upfront commitment. The free trial grants access to Rosenberg Research's premium service, where you'll receive complimentary macro and market insights every day. Request a trial at this link: https://hub.rosenbergresearch.com/free-trial Timestamps 00:00 Introduction, welcome, macro picture 0:54 Economists throwing in the recession towel 2:55 State of the consumer 4:15 Fiscal stimulus 6:40 Bullish on bonds, sees equity-like returns 7:30 Recession call 10:30 Bifurcation and divergencies in the markets and economy 12:00 GDP and GDI 14:00 Growth in credit card usage, epic drawdown in personal savings 15:00 Employment 22:30 Fiscal policy likely to be a drag 24:30 Household balance sheets - auto loans and credit card delinquencies 26:30 GDP likely close to flat this year 28:30 Outlook for Federal Reserve rate policy, need to go to 2.5% 35:45 Yield curve, why you could make more than 20% total return in 30-year Treasury bond 38:20 Implications equity markets if Fed cuts rates 44:30 Stock market has become a bidding war 48:27 Equity risk premium 53:33 Bob Farrell's influence 57:44 Parting thoughts
Jim's Comment: 5:02 Stock-Pickers Market/Opportunities in a Rising Rates Environment During the markets segment of its 2024 edition, participants in DoubleLine Round Table Prime present their outlooks on various markets and topics for 2024. Coming together for Round Table Prime are DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach and moderator DoubleLine Deputy Chief Investment Officer Jeffrey Sherman with their guests James Bianco, President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research; Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of Quill Intelligence; Charles Payne, author and Fox Business Anchor; and David Rosenberg, President of economic consulting firm Rosenberg Research & Associates. Round Table Prime was held Jan. 11, 2024. (00:29) Charles Payne discusses the state of the IPO pipeline heading into 2024 and how that pipeline has punished investors for 15, 20 years. He also shares his Word of the Year for stock investors: nimble. (5:06) Jim Bianco says the art of stock picking is very much alive, breaks down “a multi-year bear market in bonds,” talks the resilience of the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency, and discusses China's slow recovery and its impact on commodities. (10:44) Jeffrey Gundlach looks at valuations and price-to-earnings since the November start of the Everything Rally then talks about how a secular shift from a long period of declining interest rates to a period of rising interest rates will impact participants' and prognosticators' understanding of the markets. He also discusses the potential economic backdrop that would have him looking at EM and lower tiers of credit, and he shares why he has put money in India and doesn't even look at it. He closes with his thoughts on mortgage spreads, high yield bond defaults and TIPS. (25:18) David Rosenberg talks about how the CPI is a flawed statistic, the S&P 500's flat two-year performance with no improvement in valuations, how there's so much psychology involved in the stock market, the equity risk premium, and how the soft landing is real and how historically it has served as a precursor to contraction. He also shares his thoughts on positioning and the outlook for several countries, including Japan and Canada. (42:08) The markets section concludes with Danielle DiMartino Booth discussing private markets juxtaposed against public markets and the impact of public pension funds flowing into private equity a few years ago, and speculating on who will be living in Illinois if Indiana gets rid of its state income tax.
Jim's Comment: 6:28 Best Idea for 2024 Participants in DoubleLine Round Table Prime 2024 share their best trading and investment ideas for 2024. Coming together for Round Table Prime are DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach and moderator DoubleLine Deputy Chief Investment Officer Jeffrey Sherman with their guests James Bianco, President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research; Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of Quill Intelligence; Charles Payne, author and Fox Business Anchor; and David Rosenberg, President of economic consulting firm Rosenberg Research & Associates. Round Table Prime was held Jan. 11, 2024.
Timestamps: 0:00 View on Inflation 7:57 The Solution to Federal Government Spending 11:20 Stock-Pickers Market/Opportunities in a Rising Rates Environment 17:01 Best Idea for 2024 Coming together for Round Table Prime are DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach and moderator DoubleLine Deputy Chief Investment Officer Jeffrey Sherman with their guests James Bianco, President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research; Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of Quill Intelligence; Charles Payne, author and Fox Business Anchor; and David Rosenberg, President of economic consulting firm Rosenberg Research & Associates. Round Table Prime was held Jan. 11, 2024.
Jim's Timestamps: 27:28 Jim's view on Inflation. 1:06:26 The solution to Federal Government Spending. During the macroeconomic segment of its 2024 edition, participants in DoubleLine Round Table Prime among other issues debate the seeming failure of the most telegraphed recession in history to materialize in 2023, the intersection of Federal Reserve policy with a presidential election year and deep changes in the economy post-2020. Coming together for Round Table Prime are DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach and moderator DoubleLine Deputy Chief Investment Officer Jeffrey Sherman with their guests James Bianco, President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research; Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of Quill Intelligence; Charles Payne, author and Fox Business Anchor; and David Rosenberg, President of economic consulting firm Rosenberg Research & Associates. Round Table Prime was held Jan. 11, 2024. Topics include: (1:08) How the U.S. avoided recession despite numerous recessionary indicators and evidence the U.S. economy is far more downbeat than some widely followed economic statistics would indicate. (10:57) The condition of consumer and household financial conditions and the rapid rise of consumer borrowing delinquencies. (15:50) Possible factors behind the protracted length of the current cycle, including money supply as measured by M2, and as Charles Payne points out (27:58), the velocity of money. (30:45) Post-2020 transformations of the economy, the biggest, Jim Bianco notes, being remote work and acceleration of deglobalization, with important implications for inflation. (35:52) Federal Reserve monetary policy, including Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell's dovish pivot Dec. 13, which Danielle DiMartino Booth thinks was timed “to get in front of the Iowa caucuses.” (45:50) The probability of recession in 2024. (50:11) Jeffrey Gundlach's warning about the combination of the federal government running large deficits (even amid low unemployment), funded by debt, amid rising interest rates, and his outlook on the inevitability of a restructuring of the federal debt and the unfunded liabilities of American entitlement programs.
The world has watched intently as the world's most influential central bank, the Federal Reserve, has implemented the most aggressive interest rate hike campaign in history -- on a % change over time basis. But that campaign may now be over. And if it is, it suggests opportunity in the long Treasury bond market. To find out just how much of an opportunity, we sit down today with highly-respected economist & award-winning researcher David Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research. Learn more about David's work at https://rosenbergresearch.com/ #recession #bonds #inflation
On this episode of “On The Tape,” Guy, Danny, and Dan talk about the rally off the lows (2:00), yields vs. stocks (9:00), commodities (16:30), the BOJ meeting (18:00), bank stocks (21:30), why Dan thinks it's a good trading environment (24:30), and Danny's NFL picks (27:30). David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research joins to discuss the rally within the bear market (32:00), why the bond market is more attractive than the stock market (36:00), what would make him “very bullish” (39:00), the economy (41:00), what happens to the stock market when the Fed stops raising interest rates (44:00), the possibility for a recession (47:30), positioning in the bond market (49:30), cracks in the housing market (55:00), the stock to bond ratio (59:30), and credit (1:01:30). — About the Show: On The Tape is a weekly podcast with CNBC Fast Money's Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses. They're offering takes on the biggest market-moving headlines of the week, trade ideas, in-depth analysis, tips and advice. Each episode, they are joined by prominent Wall Street participants to help viewers make smarter investment decisions. Bear market, bull market, recession, inflation or deflation… we're here to help guide your portfolio into the green. Risk Reversal brings you years of experience from former Wall Street insiders trading stocks to experts in the commodity market. — Check out our show notes here Learn more about Ro body: ro.co/tape See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/onthetape. — Shoot us an email at OnTheTape@riskreversal.com with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @OnTheTapePod on Twitter or @riskreversalmedia on Threads — We're on social: Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow Danny Moses @DMoses34 on Twitter Follow Liz Young @LizYoungStrat on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page
MacroVoices Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Rosenberg Research founder David Rosenberg to the show. Rosie says the bottom isn't in yet for the stock market, and the long-awaited recession has finally begun now. They also discuss precious metals, bond yields and FOMC policy. https://bit.ly/43MiHMK Rosenberg Research Free Trial: https://bit.ly/3L3yWKM Download Big Picture Trading chartbook