The IRF Podcast

The IRF is joined by Helen Thomas, the Founder & CEO of Blonde Money. ----more---- In this podcast Helen discusses the nature and extent of the various uncertainties that have been created by the Trump Administration and those policies designed to “Make America Great Again”. From a geopolitical perspective, Helen discusses President Trump's approach to the Sino-US relationship, the Russian war in Ukraine and the risks of a wider military conflict in the Middle East involving Iran, Israel and the USA. She assesses the potential impact of his tariff policies on the US economy and elsewhere, with particular reference to the volatile impact on the financial markets. Helen then discusses some of the key factors influencing the outlook for US monetary policy and the US bond market, before focusing on the prospects for the US stock market and the US dollar. In conclusion, Helen assesses the longer-term implications for the durability of the USA's leading role in the world. Helen Thomas has a long and distinguished career in both finance and politics. Helen was an adviser to the former Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne. She also created the Financial Markets Reform Programme for the think tank, Policy Exchange. Previously, Helen has been a partner in the global macro hedge fund, ABD Investment Management, and a former Head of Currency Alpha for State Street Global Advisors. She is a CFA charter holder and serves on the UK board of the Chartered Financial Analyst Institute. Helen is also a Freeman of the City of London and has a degree in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from Oxford University. Blonde Money was stablished in 2014 as an independent consultancy firm that analyses and monitors mispriced risks in financial markets in the USA, UK and the EU. This ranges from political risks (such as those related to Brexit, the USA, China and Russia) to structural market instabilities (such as those created by bank failures or by the derivative markets).    

David Osman of IRF is joined by Jonathan Wilmot of Wilmot ML. In this podcast, Jonathan Wilmot discusses the future development of artificial intelligence with particular reference to the USA, China and the broader Macro implications. He then assesses President Trump's agenda for his second term and notes that Trump is “an old man in a big hurry”. This is creating some uncertainties, not least the potential for high tariffs to cause some economic and financial disruption. Jonathan reviews the outlook for US economic growth, inflation and interest rates. He assesses the ramifications for the bond and stock markets, before concluding with an assessment of where we are in relation to his analysis of the long-term trends and cycles over the past two centuries.   Jonathan Wilmot is a former FX Strategist at Bank of America, Fixed Income Strategist at Merrill Lynch and Chief Global Strategist at Credit Suisse. He has been described as “one of the brightest minds on Wall Street”. In 2017 Jonathan established his own Macro-research boutique and AI investment start up. Wilmot ML is the research arm of XAI Asset Management. Their primary focus is on the policy and market implications of the cycle in global growth and risk appetite, as well as the drivers of long-term structural change in the world economy and geopolitics.

In this podcast Ron William of RW Advisory discusses the cyclical trends and other factors that will be having an impact on the global financial markets in 2025 and beyond. Ron assesses the investment implications for the currency, bond, equity and commodity markets. In doing so, he highlights some key non-consensus views. In the currency markets, Ron points out the key support levels for the US dollar trade weighted index (DXY) and discusses the outlook for the dollar's main cross rates with the euro, sterling and the Japanese yen. In the bond markets, Ron discusses the potential for US and UK interest rates to experience a prolonged “higher-for-longer” period, which would rhyme with the pattern in the 1970s. He then discusses the upside potential and asymmetric cyclical downside risks in the US, UK and other key stock markets. Ron concludes with an assessment of the prospects for gold and some of the other important commodities with reference to the longer run Kondratieff wave and the shorter cyclical trends, including those influencing the main cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin.

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Jeffrey Christian, the founder and managing partner of the CPM Group. Jeffrey Christian has been a prominent analyst and advisor on the commodities markets since the 1970s, with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, the agricultural markets and economic analysis. In this podcast Jeffrey provides a wide-ranging rundown on the outlook for commodity investment in 2025. He starts with an assessment of the relative prospects for the prices of gold, silver and the platinum group of metals. In the energy sector, Jeffrey considers the various factors that make the outlook for crude oil prices very uncertain this year, not least because potential developments in the Ukraine, in the Middle East and with US foreign policies. He expects oil prices to remain relatively high, but possibly with a slight downside bias, given the risk of a global economic recession commencing later this year or in 2026. Jeffrey then highlights his preferred commodities and concerns in the base metals sector and the agricultural markets. In conclusion, Jeffrey discusses the factors that are impacting on the flow of funds into the commodities sector and explains why he believes that global asset allocators should have an overweight position in commodities in a multi-asset portfolio for 2025. Founded in 1986, the CPM Group is an independent commodities research, consulting, asset management and investment banking firm that provides comprehensive research, analysis, and advisory services. The CPM Group is also known for its overall economic analysis of the commodities markets and its expertise in financial engineering.

David Osman of IRF is joined by Sharmila Whelan, the Founder of Westbourne Research. ----more---- In this podcast, Sharmila Whelan explains the business cycle foundations of her investment strategy and global asset allocation guidelines. She discusses the potential impact of the Trump 2.0 Administration on US domestic and foreign policies. Sharmila then assesses the outlook for world public debt in the next 5 years, and explains what this could mean for government and corporate bond markets. Focusing next on Asia, she discusses some of the key aspects of the outlook for the economies and financial markets in Japan, India, China and Taiwan. Sharmila Whelan is a very experienced global geopolitical-macro strategist, who has been advising buy-side clients on multi-asset investment strategies and asset allocations for nearly three decades. Sharmila has held prominent roles for leading firms in London and Hong Kong, including Merryll Lynch/Bank of America, CLSA, BP and Altheia Capital. She has also counselled various governmental bodies and is a frequent contributor to the financial media, including Bloomberg, the BBC and CNBC. Westbourne Research is a global macroeconomic, geopolitical, policy forecasting and strategic advisory consultancy, which is based in London.

David Osman of IRF is joined by Paul Cavey, the Founder of East Asia Econ. ----more---- In this podcast, Paul Cavey discusses the various cyclical, geopolitical, political and structural factors that are influencing the economic outlook for China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Paul assesses how the policies of the Trump 2.0 Administration could impact on the East Asian region. He compares the situation now to that in the mid-1980s at the time of the Plaza Accord currency agreement. Paul explains what is likely to be different in 2025, with particular reference to the outlook for interest rates and the currency exchange rates versus the US dollar. Paul concludes with an assessment of some of the longer-term demographic and technological trends that are influencing the region. Paul Cavey has been analysing the North East Asian Economies, with a particular focus on China, for over 25 years. He was the Chief Regional Economist at several leading firms, notably the Economist Intelligence Unit, Macquarie Securities and Wellington Management. East Asia Econ provides high-quality analysis of macro and market issues in China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan.

David Osman of the IRF is joined by James Lucier, the Co-Founder and Managing Director of Capital Alpha Partners. ----more---- In this podcast, James Lucier discusses the quality of the appointments that president-elect Donald Trump is making for his next administration that begins on 20th January 2025. James then assesses the outlook for fiscal, monetary, trade and regulatory policies in the next two years, ahead of the mid-term congressional elections in November 2026. He also discusses what these policies might mean for US economy and the dollar. James concludes with an assessment of the geopolitical outlook for US foreign policy in a dangerous world. Capital Alpha Partners is a leading provider of American strategic policy research and political forecasting, which was founded in 2007 and is based in Washington D.C. They track US political developments that impact on the economy, global equities, credits and broader portfolios. Their team of very experienced analysts offers situational awareness of Washington – its legislative activity, regulatory processes, judicial crosshairs and political climate – on a macro, sector and subsector basis. They cover a broad spectrum of all the key sectors from Consumers and Energy, to Financials, Health Care, Industrials, Telecoms, Media and Technology.

In this podcast, Callum Thomas of Topdown Charts compares the current global interest rate cycle with the 3 previous ones. He points out what is different this time and what that might mean for the length and depth of this cycle. Callum then assesses the prospects for a reacceleration of economic growth and the associated risk of a resurgence in the rate of inflation. He discusses the implications of higher government bond yields for equity markets and other assets. Callum also compares Trump 2.0 and the current situation with the period in 2016 when Trump was first elected president and notes some important differences from an investment perspective. Callum concludes with an assessment of some of the main actionable risks and opportunities in the financial markets, as well as highlighting his underweight and overweight recommendations for active investors in the multi-asset universe. ----more---- Callum Thomas founded Topdown Charts in 2016, after a distinguished career in multi-asset investment management in New Zealand and Australia. Based in New Zealand, Topdown Charts provides data-driven primary research across a broad global macro and multi-asset universe. A key belief at Topdown Charts is that any factor, and usually multiple factors, should be used in the art of generating investment insights, particularly when extremes are detected e.g. extremes in valuation, emotion / sentiment, positioning, price movement, etc.

Paul Hodges, Founder of Near Normal Consulting draws on over 30 years of experience in the chemicals, energy and IT industries to outline the most likely scenarios in the wake of the recent US Presidential election, asking to what extent Donald Trump will be able to implement his stated agenda given the secular forces at work in the global economy. ----more---- Hodges sets the scene through his analysis of how demographic trends will impact supply and demand through the major developed economies, along with the major secular changes facing key industries such as chemicals and energy. Against a backdrop of widespread overcapacity and declining demand, Trump's proposals for tariffs even if only partially implemented, will accelerate the reversion to 'local for local' supply chains with unpredictable consequences for investors, who are already grappling with very high levels of valuations, most notably in the US equity market.

Brian highlighted significant concerns about the Chinese economy, emphasising that its investment-led growth model is collapsing, with a real estate crisis leading to multi-trillion-dollar losses and debt deflation risks. He expressed scepticism about the effectiveness of anticipated stimulus measures, noting that while they may provide temporary support, they are unlikely to fundamentally change the economic trajectory. Brian pointed out structural issues such as unsustainable debt levels, reliance on central planning, and weak profit growth, making Chinese equities unattractive. He concluded that without meaningful policy changes or abandoning the currency peg, China faces prolonged economic stagnation, akin to Japan's deflationary period, and recommended caution in investing in Chinese markets.

Helen Thomas of Blonde Money presents a three-part analysis of Rachel Reeves' budget approach, focusing on her ideological foundations, probable budget content, and projected market impact. Thomas examines Reeves' underlying ideology, shaped by a socialist perspective highlighted in her Mais lecture, where Reeves critiques modern capitalism's failure to enhance growth, democratic engagement, and living standards. Reeves' outlook distances her from Tony Blair's New Labour approach, which she deems insufficiently bold in addressing labor market insecurity. As a result, her budget framework aims for broader structural change while appeasing both the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and Labour's diverse coalition.

We hosted a group call on “Investing in Emerging Markets” with Manoj Pradhan, Talking Heads Macro and Jon Anderson, Emerging Advisors Group and JP Smith. JP kicked off the session by advocating for nuanced investment strategies and skilled active management rather than viewing EMs as a single asset class. Manoj argued that significant stress often drives reform, as seen in India. He highlighted Brazil's resilience and identified specific opportunities in India, Indonesia, and South Africa, cautioning against blanket investment strategies. Jon noted that while China's GDP growth has been substantial, equity returns remain low due to share dilution. He highlighted potential opportunities from excessive domestic liquidity, framing China as a volatile, high-reward market amidst a challenging macroeconomic backdrop.

In this podcast Tobias Harris of Japan Foresight discusses the political situation in Japan and the potential impact of the new Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishida. Tobias then considers the various geopolitical concerns that Japan faces in the Northeast Asian region and the wider world. In particular, he assesses the potential impact of sharply higher crude oil prices on the Japanese economy if the military conflict in the Middle East escalates further. Tobias also reviews the scope for the Japanese government to adjust economic policy, with reference to both the monetary and fiscal policy outlook. In addition, he assesses the demographic trends that are impacting on the longer-term outlook for the economy and Japanese society.

In this podcast Diana Choyleva explains the reasons for her contrarian call on the near-term outlook for the Chinese currency. She discusses the deep-seated problems in the Chinese economy, particularly those in the property sector, and assesses the overall effectiveness of the government's economic policies. In addition, Diana highlights the geopolitical factors that are now hampering China's economic development, not least the threat of potential military action against the neighbouring island of Taiwan. She also assesses the investment opportunities in the Chinese bond and stock markets, particularly from the viewpoint of international investors in what is becoming a more bifurcated world. In conclusion Diana considers how the economic developments in China are impacting on the rest of the world, especially with respect to the global commodity markets. Track record page - https://bit.ly/4gcJJ60 Diana's X profile – https://bit.ly/3X7pKgB

In this podcast Andrew Hunt discusses in detail the key underlying monetary trends in the main Western economies and explains why he expects a new era of lower interest rates and greater currency volatility as the post-Plaza world crumbles. After an assessment of the outlook for the US economy and financial markets, Andrew considers the deep-seated problems in the Chinese economy and how these will impact on the rest of the world. In Europe, Andrew reviews the diverse economic factors in various countries and assesses the implications for the conduct of monetary policy by the ECB and by the Bank of England.   Andrew Hunt is a former Chief International Economist at Dresdner RCM Global Investors. In 2001 he set up his own company, Andrew Hunt Economics, to provide economic commentary and insight on the major issues of the day to hedge funds, mainstream asset managers, family offices, non-financial companies and the management of major banks.

In this podcast Shamil Ismail discusses how the rapidly evolving demographic trends will impact on global financial markets. He points out that the strong growth of the global population over the past century provided a firm underpin for market growth. Shamil explains how these demographic trends are changing as some countries' populations are decreasing and there is a rising proportion of older people (who consume less). Several major markets – including China, Japan, Italy, Germany and South Korea – have ageing and declining populations already. According to Shamil, these demographic shifts will have a significant impact on investment performance as demand weakens and wage inflation rises. He also highlights where he sees the most attractive investment opportunities from a demographic perspective.   Primaresearch provides demographic analysis on investment opportunities globally. Their standardised demographic risk measure allows investors to compare these risks across companies and sectors. Primaresearch also provides fundamental, bottom-up research on consumer-facing companies in South Africa.

David Osman of IRF is joined by Ron William, the Founder of RW Advisory. ----more---- Ron William is a market strategist with over 20 years of experience producing macro research and trading strategies for leading economic research and institutional firms.    In this podcast Ron reviews the performance of the global financial markets in the first half of 2024 and discusses the outlook for the second half of this year. In the currency markets, he explains that the dollar's trade-weighted index is at a critical level and discusses some of the key risk factors. With respect to the outlook for US and UK interest rates and bond yields, Ron's cyclical analysis points to a prolonged period of ‘higher-for-longer' rolling volatility, which will rhyme with the pattern in the 1970s. In addition, he points out that the US stock market has shown signs of irrational exuberance and in the near term is vulnerable to “a triple whammy of headwinds”. In the UK, the FTSE 100 Index is seen as being rangebound between 8100 – 8300 with upside potential, but perhaps more so for the FTSE 250 Index. Other markets that look particularly interesting include China and Japan. Ron also identifies some of his preferred opportunities in the commodity markets, including gold and silver.   RW Advisory specialises in blended, top-down, semi-discretionary analysis, driven by cycles and by proprietary timing models, which use both quantitative and qualitative techniques. Ron uses the latest techniques in behavioural/risk assessment modelling, peak-performance, neuro/body science and stress response management, including mindfulness and coherence training, supported by his market strategies.  

In this podcast Peter Warburton, the founder of Economic Perspectives, discusses the outlook for global inflation and the limited scope for action by the major central banks in the US, EU, UK and Japan. Peter also highlights his concerns about the conduct of fiscal policy in several countries since 2019. In doing so, he outlines his contrarian view on financial stability as a constraint on central bank actions in a more fragile financial environment. In addition, Peter assesses the probable impact of these various monetary policy decisions on the currency and other financial markets in the next 6 – 18 months. Peter Warburton has a long and distinguished career as a leading economist in the financial sector, previously working for top firms, including Robert Fleming and Lehman Brothers. He has been a member of the IEA's “Shadow Monetary Policy Committee” since its inception in 1997. In addition, Peter is Managing Director of Halkin Services, a global risk analysis & asset allocation service. Founded in 1996, Economic Perspectives is an independent global macro-financial research company that challenges conventional thinking and provides valuable investment insights for professional investors.

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Wolfgang Munchau, the Founder of Eurointelligence. ----more---- In this podcast, Wolfgang Munchau assesses the outlook for Russia's attritional war on Ukraine from a European perspective and discusses how it is likely to end. Wolfgang notes that the Ukraine war, and other global developments, have had a profound impact on Germany's export-orientated economy, where the manufacturing sector now needs to evolve and adapt to changing geopolitical and technological circumstances. He points out that these factors are hampering the growth potential in Germany and across the EU. Wolfgang then considers both the successes and the failures of the Euro single currency over the past 25 years. Looking forward, he indicates how the Euro is likely to perform from hereon in conjunction with the probable stance of the ECB's monetary policy. Wolfgang also assesses what is at stake from the result of this year's elections to the European parliament. In addition, he highlights the investment opportunities in Europe's venture capital sector, but warns against investing in some of the large established companies in the automobile and chemical sectors. Wolfgang Munchau founded Eurointelligence in 2006 and is widely considered one of the world's foremost experts on the Eurozone. Eurointelligence provides a specialist service for news and analysis of the EU and eurozone in a global context. Their flagship product, Eurointelligence Professional, offers filtered and time-saving access to important information from a wide network of national and international sources.  

In 2020, Manoj Pradhan and Charles Goodhart produced a very influential book, which was entitled: “The Great Demographic Reversal – Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality and an Inflation Revival”. In their book they predicted that in the medium-term inflation would take off and that interest rates would increase in response to secular trends, such as ageing societies and deglobalisation. They argued that this revival of inflation would not be transitory. ----more---- In this podcast, Manoj Pradhan assesses the importance of deglobalisation, supply chain constraints, labour shortages, productivity trends, A.I. and demographics for the inflation outlook. Manoj then discusses the extent to which these inflationary factors are coming into play in 2024-2025. He considers what this means for fiscal policies, monetary policies and for economic growth in the G7 economies in the longer run. Manoj discusses the implications for the financial markets in several of the main advanced economies and emerging markets. He concludes with an assessment of some of the best investment opportunities in the currency, bond and equity markets, as well as pointing out what he would avoid at present. Talking Heads Macro (THM) was established in 2016 by Manoj and his Co-Founder, Charles Goodhart, the renowned former member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee and Professor at the London School of Economics. Using an outstanding mix of applied and academic thinking, their unique framework lets them develop perspectives on asset prices that traditional research completely misses. THM generates macroeconomic trade recommendations on a 6-12-month horizon by showing how current developments fit into longer-term themes.

David Osman of the IRF is joined by David Metzner and Chris Czerwinski of ACG Analytics. ----more---- ACG Analytics is an independent research firm that translates public policy for investment fund managers and analysts. Their research focuses on specific policy issues and actions in the United States, the European Union, Asia and Latin America. They anticipate how government policies in key markets may impact on investor strategies.   In this podcast David Metzner and Chris Czerwinski discuss the prospects for the US economy in the run-up to the US presidential and congressional elections in early November. They point out that the stimulative fiscal policy and potentially lower interest rates should support economic activity this year, but there is no feel-good factor about the US economy in the way that there was before the global Covid pandemic.   They highlight the key policy differences between the Democrats and the Republicans and emphasise the importance of the key battleground states in determining the outcome of the US presidential election. Their state-by-state analysis suggests that President Biden could achieve a narrow victory, which could then cause some initial social instability given the fervour of many Trump supporters.   David and Chris then discuss the main economic and geopolitical challenges that the USA will likely face in 2025 and beyond. In conclusion they highlight some of the attractions of the USA from an investment perspective.  

JP Smith of the IRF is joined by Nicholas Watson, Managing Director of Teneo Political Risk Advisory, to discuss whether the recently elected President Javier Milei will be able to succeed where his predecessors have failed, namely to implement the necessary measures which would lead to a durable stabilisation of the crisis-stricken Argentinian economy. ----more---- In his assessment, Nicholas discusses the social and political context and draws on a series of meetings from his recent extensive fact-finding visit to Argentina, to incorporate the latest developments and outline the key potential scenarios for the coming months. Nicholas Watson is a Managing Director at Teneo responsible for coverage of the Spanish-speaking Latin American economies. Teneo is a global CEO advisory firm offering diversified services that include strategic communications, financial advisory, management consulting and risk advisory. Teneo's geopolitical risk consulting and advisory services target political events and their implications for corporations and financial markets. They identify political drivers that move markets and forecast outcomes and scenarios to help clients incorporate political futures into their strategic planning.

David Osman of the IRF is joined by David Murrin, the Founder of Global Forecaster, who is renowned for the development of unique and effective behavioural models that predict financial markets. ----more---- In this podcast, David Murrin discusses the importance of the Kondratiev (K-wave) commodity super-cycle to the outlook both for inflation and other financial markets. He explains the implications of the K-wave (which is expected to peak in approximately 2030 or 2031) for his “Five Stages of Empire” model and what this means for empires in decline (such as USA and the EU) and empires that are rising (such as China and India). In the next few years, this has substantial inflationary ramifications for commodities, bonds, equities and currencies, particularly the US dollar. He outlines the way that rising geopolitical conflicts could lead to an escalation of the ongoing warfare between autocracies and democracies. This has dramatic consequences for global asset allocation decisions and favours an overweight investment in gold and many other commodities.   David's long career has been focused on finding deep-seated patterns in history and using them to understand and accurately predict both the geopolitical dynamics and the financial markets. Global Forecaster provides actionable real-time market analysis combined with a unique geopolitical overview.

David Osman of IRF is joined by Ron William, the Founder of RW Advisory. ----more---- Ron William is a market strategist with over 20 years of experience producing macro research and trading strategies for leading economic research & institutional firms. He specialises in blended, top-down, semi-discretionary analysis, driven by cycles and by his proprietary timing models, which use both quantitative and qualitative techniques. In this podcast Ron explains why the trade-weighted dollar index (DXY) is likely to depreciate and assesses the outlook for the US currency against the euro, sterling and the Japanese yen. He then discusses the prospects for the government bond markets in the US and UK with reference to the recent trends in 10-year yields and the economic outlook. With respect to the US stock market, Ron identifies the factors that have caused the US S&P 500 Index to become extremely overbought and discusses the potential for this to continue or unwind in 2024. He points out that the UK FTSE 100 Index is close to the middle of the 7,000 – 8,000 trading range that has been established for several years, however he foresees downside risks that could provide a healthy correction. Ron also discusses the reasons behind the very strong performance of the Japanese stock market and foresees the major uptrend in the Nikkei 225 Index continuing and eventually reaching a new all-time-high above the psychologically important 40,000 level. In conclusion, he discusses the performance of various commodities and highlights the bullish outlook for gold. RW Advisory specialises in blended, top-down, semi-discretionary analysis, driven by cycles and proprietary timing models, which use both quantitative and qualitative techniques. Ron William is also a behavioural finance expert, trading psychologist and performance coach. He uses the latest techniques in behavioural/risk assessment modelling, peak-performance, neuro/body science and stress response management, including mindfulness and coherence training, supported by his market strategies.

The IRF is joined by Lenka Martinek, Managing Partner at Sustainable Market Strategies (SMS), an ESG consultancy firm that specialises in bespoke Environmental, Social & Governance-related research and investment advice. ----more---- In this podcast Lenka Martinek reviews the performance of ESG investments in 2023 and highlights the influence of global geopolitical and macroeconomic factors on sustainable portfolios. She identifies some of the best and worst ESG investment themes over the past year. Lenka then discusses the limited impact of the recent COP28 annual climate summit meeting, even though she believes that the various consequences of climate change are becoming too big to ignore. In addition, Lenka discusses the various opportunities and risks that she expects to be most important for sustainable strategies and ESG investment portfolios during 2024. In conclusion, Lenka considers the growing importance of thematic investing from a longer term perspective and highlights some of the themes within the ESG space that should continue to do well in the future. Founded in 2018, Sustainable Market Strategies is an Independent Investment Strategy Research Service that tracks global developments in the ESG and Impact-Investing space. SMS focuses on sustainable investment trends, taking a global, top-down and thematic approach, whilst tailoring their views to global market conditions. SMS publishes forward-looking, independent and actionable investment research. Their expert advice is based on a comprehensive knowledge of ESG megatrends, and how these trends can be useful to better understand the markets and to make profitable investment decisions.

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Brian Pellegrini, the Founder and Senior Analyst of Intertemporal Economics. ----more---- Brian founded Intertemporal Economics in 2018. Previously he worked with Bernard Connolly as a senior analyst at Connolly Insight, where he specialised in geopolitical event risk, monetary policy, labour markets and energy. Prior to Connolly Insight, Brian was employed in various positions across Wall Street, including working with high-growth technology firms raising capital, structuring options trades and valuing asset-backed securities.   Intertemporal Economics uses an in-depth analytical framework, which is based on microeconomic foundations. This provides an understanding of endogenous factors and patterns of human behaviour that cannot be analysed using quantitative techniques alone. The firm's research focuses on topics affecting economics, interest rates and asset prices in developed markets.   In this podcast, Brian discusses the importance of certain trends in the US labour market and their prospective implications for both inflation and economic growth. He then assesses the troubled outlook for monetary and fiscal policy ahead of the US presidential election next November. Before reviewing the political and geopolitical landscape, he discusses the prospects for the US dollar, the potentially volatile outlook for the bond market and the likely divergent trends in the stock market.  

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Jeffrey Christian, the Founder and Managing Partner of the CPM Group. ----more---- Jeffrey has been a prominent analyst and advisor on the commodities markets since the 1970s, with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, the agricultural markets and economic analysis. In this podcast Jeff provides a wide-ranging rundown on the outlook for commodity prices in the near term and in the longer run. He assesses the relative prospects for the prices of gold, silver, platinum and palladium. In the energy sector, Jeff focuses on the various factors influencing the outlook for the prices of crude oil and natural gas. He then highlights his most preferred and least preferred commodities in the base metals sector and the agricultural markets. In conclusion, Jeff discusses the factors that are impacting on the flow of funds into the commodities sector and explains why this is projected to continue to increase in the longer run from mid-2024 onwards. Founded in 1986, the CPM Group is an independent commodities research, consulting, asset management and investment banking firm that provides comprehensive research, analysis, and advisory services. The CPM Group is also known for its overall economic analysis of the commodities markets and its expertise in financial engineering.

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Marcos Buscaglia, the Founder of Alberdi Partners. ----more---- In this podcast Marcos discusses the political and economic outlook for various countries in Latin America, including Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Ecuador. Marcos founded Alberdi Partners in 2016 to provide economic, political and market research services on Latin American countries for institutional investors and corporations. The Alberdi Partners team share in the decision processes of their clients, with close interactions. They produce a combination of deep macro and political analysis with detailed number crunching, including the use of econometric models.

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Ryoji Musha, the Founder of Musha Research.   Ryoji Musha founded Musha Research in 2009 following a long and distinguished career working for leading global investment banks in Japan and the USA since 1973. During that period, he achieved the top-rating for Japan Equity Strategy in the Institutional Investor polls.   In this podcast Ryoji Musha discusses the reasons for the dramatic improvement in the outlook for the Japanese economy. He identifies the importance of the improving competitiveness of the Japanese yen against the US dollar and crucial global geopolitical factors, particularly the troubled US-China relationship, as well as the emerging secular trends in the domestic economy. Ryoji Musha also explains the ongoing changes in the Bank of Japan's monetary policy stance that will lead to the effective elimination of the yield curve control (YCC) policy and other unconventional monetary policy measures by the end of next year. He also sets out the pathway for economic growth and a sustained return to the BOJ's 2%pa inflation target. He assesses when and by how much Japanese interest rates are likely to rise in 2024 and what this will mean for the 10-year government bond yield. Ryoji Musha concludes with an assessment of bullish factors driving the strong performance of the Tokyo stock market and foresees a significant increase in the weightings of Japanese equities in global portfolios.   Musha Research was founded in 2009 to provide more direct assistance with financial market analysis and the determination of medium and long-term outlooks. The activities of Musha Research are guided by three principles: adhering to consistent logic; reaching conclusions based on their own beliefs; and using a viewpoint that incorporates both history and a global perspective.

David Osman of IRF is joined by Ron William, the Founder of RW Advisory. Ron is a market strategist with over 20 years of experience producing macro research and trading strategies for leading economic research and institutional firms. ----more---- In this podcast Ron reviews the performance of the US dollar in the first half of this year and assesses the outlook for the US currency against the euro, sterling, the Japanese yen and the Chinese yuan. Turning next to the main government bond markets, he discusses the macro impact of the longer-term generational trends in three key areas: demographics, the labour market and resources. He also points out that there is likely to be increasing volatility in the short term, but eventually both the US 10-year Treasury yield and the UK 10-year Gilt yield are expected to reach new highs for this cycle. With respect to the leading stock markets, the US S&P 500 Index has been stronger-than-expected in the first half of this year. However, Ron indicates that the chart is now at a make-or-break level, with other market factors pointing ahead to an asymmetric downside mean reversion risk later this year or in early 2024. In contrast, the UK FTSE 100 Index is close to the middle of the 7,000 – 7,700 trading range that has been established for most of the last three years, but given its components, various headwinds suggest that it is in danger of diverging lower. Ron also discusses the reasons behind the very strong performance of the Japanese stock market and he highlights the attractiveness of various Asian markets. In addition, he discusses the performance of various commodities this year and highlights the bullish outlook for gold. RW Advisory specialises in blended, top-down, semi-discretionary analysis, driven by cycles and by Ron's proprietary timing models, which use both quantitative and qualitative techniques. Ron is also a behavioural finance expert, trading psychologist and performance coach. He uses the latest techniques in behavioural/risk assessment modelling, peak-performance, neuro/body science and stress response management, including mindfulness and coherence training, supported by his market strategies.

The IRF is joined by Lenka Martinek, Managing Partner at Sustainable Market Strategies (SMS), an ESG consultancy firm that specialises in bespoke environmental, social & governance-related research and investment advice. ----more---- ESG investing has become an essential aspect of the services that many financial institutions provide for their clients. Given the growing popularity of ethical investments, environmental, social and governance considerations will inevitably become a more important part of portfolio investment decisions in the future. In this podcast Lenka Martinek discusses the evolving geopolitical factors that are influencing the prospects for ESG investments. Lenka explains how the Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to a re-evaluation of the global defence industry's ESG credentials and highlights those factors that can be considered more acceptable, or totally unacceptable, from an ESG perspective. With respect to the solar industry, Lenka highlights the various issues related to China's very poor ESG rating and identifies alternative ways to invest in the renewable energy sector. She also highlights some of the positive and negative factors for ESG investors in the water resources sector. On a broader perspective, Lenka explains the different approaches to ESG investing in both relative and absolute terms. She notes the importance of the relative performance of the oil sector and the tech sector. In conclusion, Lenka highlights the advantages that come from having a comprehensive knowledge of ESG megatrends, and she indicates how SMS can evaluate these trends to better understand the markets and to make profitable investment decisions. Founded in 2018, Sustainable Market Strategies is an independent investment strategy research service that tracks global developments in the ESG and Impact-Investing space. Also known by the firm's initials, SMS publishes forward-looking, independent and actionable investment research. The SMS team has a total of over 50 years of experience in capital markets, finance, economics, policy, academic research and sustainable investing. They look at sustainable investing trends, taking a global, top-down and thematic approach, and tailor their views to global market conditions.  

In conversation with the IRF's JP Smith, Mark Latham Founder and CEO of Commodity Intelligence explains how his news story driven AI process helps the team to identify prevailing narratives in the market and potential inflection points. ----more---- Over the past three years this approach has led to some very timely calls, including a relatively bearish stance on the energy complex in 2022 prior to the big falls in the prices of oil and natural gas. Here, Mark lays out the results of his current analysis and summarises his views in the wake of the recent correction across a wide range of commodity markets, including a deep dive into the oil and gas markets and how alternative energy will lead to negative cost curves across a range of key manufacturing industries.

This latest episode of the IRF Podcast looks at the outlook for the Turkish economy and financial assets in the wake of Turkey's 2023 first-round election. ----more---- IRF Senior Advisor, JP Smith hosts Michael Harris, Founder of Cribstone Strategic Macro, who's been ranked number one strategist for Turkey thirteen times.    Mike outlines the probable outcome for the forthcoming second round, likely future policy developments and identifies the key scenarios for the Turkish Lira and equity market, paying particular attention to the possibility of further destabilising capital flight and dollarisation of the domestic economy.   Mike and JP also discuss Erdogan's balancing act between Russia and the West with regard to foreign policy and the potential ways that might shift in response to any future economic and/or financial turbulence.

The IRF is joined by Brian Pellegrini, the Founder of Intertemporal Economics. ----more---- In this podcast Brian Pellegrini discusses the political factors that influence the recurring problems relating to Congress passing legislation to raise the US debt ceiling. Brian reflects on the various fiscal, monetary and macro-prudential policy dilemmas associated with the recent spike in inflationary pressures, the impact of higher interest rates and the consequent financial instability in the financial sector due, in part, to several regional bank failures.   Given the potential problems in the bond market, he expects the Fed to take steps towards a policy of yield curve control and to start acting as the market maker of first resort. Brian also explains why he predicts that the US economy will be in the midst of another inflationary cycle by mid-2024.   As a result, Brian expects the US stock market to follow a winding path. He foresees a strong outperformance by financials in the next 3 – 6 months, as inflationary fears fall on false hopes of a lasting return to a low inflation environment. He thinks that the year ahead will therefore be a period of volatility with a strong divergence between the performance of different stock market sectors.   In addition, Brian anticipates that there will be a greater degree of cooperation amongst the major central banks in the near term that would have some implications for the US dollar. In the longer term, he sees two major political challenges that will have an influence on the US dollar: i) demographic trends and their prospective impact on the US labour market; ii) the potential global division between the West and other parts of the world in the East and the Global South.   Brian Pellegrini is the Founder of Intertemporal Economics and the firm's Senior Analyst. Brian founded Intertemporal Economics in 2018, previously he worked with Bernard Connolly as a senior analyst at Connolly Insight, where he specialized in Geopolitical Event risk, Monetary Policy, Labour Markets and Energy. Prior to Connolly Insight, Brian was employed in various positions across Wall Street, including working with high-growth technology firms raising capital, structuring options trades and valuing asset-backed securities. Brian has an MBA from Columbia University, a Master of Science in Finance from North-Eastern University and a Bachelor of Science in Computer Science from Columbia University. He is also a CFA charter holder.   Intertemporal Economics uses an in-depth analytical framework, which is based on microeconomic foundations. This allows an understanding of endogenous factors and patterns of human behaviour that cannot be analysed using quantitative techniques alone. The firm's research focuses on topics affecting economics, interest rates and asset prices in developed and emerging markets.

The IRF is joined by Helen Thomas, the Founder & CEO of Blonde Money. ----more----   In this podcast Helen reflects on Rishi Sunak's premiership so far and assesses the prospects for the UK economy and financial markets in the year ahead. She discusses the outlook for economic growth, inflation and monetary policy.    Helen compares the outlook for interest rates and government bond yields in the US and the UK, noting key differences between the policies of the US Fed and those of the Bank of England. She concludes with an assessment of the differing prospects for Wall Street and the London stock market in an era of numerous international uncertainties and potential financial instabilities.   Helen has a distinguished career in both finance and politics. She was an adviser to the former Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne. She also created the Financial Markets Reform Programme for the think tank, Policy Exchange.    Founded in 2014, Blonde Money is an independent consultancy firm that analyses and monitors mispriced risks in financial markets in the USA, UK and EU. 

JP Smith of the IRF is joined by Patrick Perret-Green, the Founder of PPG Macro. ----more---- In this podcast Patrick argues that the impact of the problems in the banking sector is likely to be highly disinflationary as the contraction in credit creation outweighs the creation of money by the US Fed. Whilst the stock of money supply remains extremely high, the flow is contracting at a rate unseen in the lifetime of most market participants.    Moreover, the expectation that high inflation is here to stay has become consensus, partly on the back of aging demographics pushing up consumption relative to savings, a narrative that Patrick does not buy into given Japan's experience over the past thirty years. Given the lags built into the inflation indices, especially with regard to shelter and the prospects for a marked weakening in the labour market as the global economy slows, investors will begin to focus on the secular disinflationary forces.    Outside the US, Patrick is especially concerned about China where the capital-intensive growth model has run out of steam and the money created by the PBOC will be used to prop up the property market and especially the highly indebted local government financing vehicles.      Given this backdrop, Patrick advocates a cautious and pragmatic approach to asset allocation favouring longer dated sovereign credit and equities that offer a defensive earnings profile and sustainable yield. Because of his pessimistic outlook for economic growth, he would underweight cyclical sectors, most commodities and emerging markets, the latter being further penalised by the likelihood of a stronger dollar as part of the global flight to perceived safer havens. Property and private equity are also very vulnerable to the process of price discovery and retrenchment by the banking sector. 

David Osman of IRF is joined by Ben Rabidoux, the Founder of North Cove Advisors. ----more---- They discuss the importance of the housing sector as a driver of consumer spending and broader economic growth in Canada. The Canadian government is trying to achieve a soft-landing with the central bank providing an appropriate degree of monetary tightening to curb inflation without creating a recession. According to the Bank of Canada, higher interest rates are working their way through an overheated economy. Canadians are feeling the pinch of high inflation and concern about an economic slowdown. Ben points out the risks associated with a tightening monetary policy stance and a sharp slowdown in discretionary consumer spending. He identifies the early signs of cracks in consumer credit, including rising insolvencies and deteriorating credit card trends. In the housing sector, affordability concerns are continuing to weigh on demand and put downward pressure on house prices. Ben compares the highly-leveraged state of Canadian consumers with their US peers. Given the prospect of higher US interest rates this year, Ben highlights the risks that this poses for the conduct of monetary policy in Canada and the implications for the Canadian dollar. North Cove Advisors is a boutique research firm that is exclusively focused on Canadian macroeconomic coverage with a strong focus on housing, household credit and consumer spending trends.  

David Osman of IRF is joined by Michael Churchill, the founder of Churchill Research. ----more---- In this podcast Michael discusses the economic and financial implications of the worst bond yield inversion for 40 years. He argues that the curve inversion is saying that the Fed is overdoing it. Historically, that is a recession predictor – albeit with a long lead time. But so far other indicators are not corroborating a near-term deflationary recession. He points out that the 2020-21 helicopter drop was of world-historical enormity – and now it's being worked off. This has created all kinds of uncertainties and risks. He notes that US M2 growth is negative YoY, but still 38% above pre-COVID levels. This is a classic conflict between level and rate of change. The rate of change is weak, but the level is still high. He observes that over enough time, the rate of change always wins. Michael emphasizes that the 2020-21 M2 boom was a one-off, but people misinterpret it as systemic. He sees that as being very dangerous. The big risk is that the Fed keeps hiking until lagging indicators give it the slowdown it wants (particularly rising unemployment). The hotter the economy runs in the meantime, the bigger the risk of Fed overshoot. Michael points out that the “option value” of holding cash is rising given the obvious risk of Fed error. He notes that the gold price is tracking the 12-month Fed Funds future (inverted) tick for tick. Put differently, the dollar is following funds-rate expectations very closely. He finds it bizarre that the 350 bp rise in TIPS yields hasn't pulled gold down much further and interprets this to mean that money is not as tight as the inverted yield curve suggests. With respect to his various portfolios, Michael explains why he has been adding to his weighting in Japan and discusses the adjustments he has recently made to his weightings in various sectors, including airlines, processed goods and raw materials. Churchill Research analyses the world from both the top-down and the bottom-up. The first cut is macro, using their supply-side economic model to identify countries and sectors that are likely to outperform or underperform. Next, they apply their bottom-up analysis, looking for interesting individual companies within targeted countries and sectors. These stocks are included in their various portfolios.   

IRF represents high-quality and differentiated Independent Research and Alternative Data Providers. ----more---- This is the fifth episode of the IRF Research and Markets Podcast series. In this edition, experienced market practitioner JP Smith reviews the analysis and views of some key IRF Providers focusing on the lively debate over US inflation and the relationship with commodity prices, bonds and equity markets, with a particular emphasis on emerging market equities and the extent to which the consensus bullish view is consistent with the outlook for the key country constituents. IRF Providers mentioned in this podcast include: CrossBorder Capital, Suttle Economics, PPG Macro, WilmotML, Talking Heads Macro, Minack Advisors, CHA-AM Advisors, Independent Strategy, PRC Macro, Copley Fund Research, Emerging Advisors Group, Alberdi Partners, Greenmantle.

David Osman of IRF is joined by David Ranson, the president of HCWE & Co. for the latest episode of the IRF Podcast. Here David Ranson discusses the misunderstood causes of inflation and the consequent undermining of sound money as a store value. He highlights the importance of the quality of money, as opposed to the quantity.  ----more---- David also explains why the 30-year forward price of gold is the best way to assess the quality of money and he argues that the current burst of inflation was not generally expected because the cause has not been diagnosed correctly. His empirical analysis has major implications for the conduct of monetary policy and the impact of those central bank policies on an economy's performance.   David points out that the historical evidence does not support the belief that raising interest rates to control inflation is effective. He concludes that the present policies being pursued by the US Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world are not only harmful, but also ineffective when it comes to preventing inflation in the medium to longer run. Consequently, he is very bearish about inflation worldwide.   David Ranson does not expect a recession this year, but he does expect US economic growth to remain very slow. He foresees waves of stubborn inflation in the years ahead, with interest rates rising erratically, if the conduct of US monetary policy does not change. David argues that to control inflation the general public must have confidence that the value of the money unit will be preserved. Hence, he believes that the floating US dollar needs to be anchored to something stable, such as gold.   David has a Doctorate in Business Economics from the University of Chicago Business School.   HCWE & Co. has a clientele of institutional investors, hedge funds and family offices throughout North America and Europe. Over the years, HCWE & Co. has demonstrated a successful track record, anticipating major economic and asset market moves in both the US and elsewhere.  

IRF represents high-quality and differentiated Independent Research and Alternative Data Providers. This is the fourth episode of the IRF Research and Markets Podcast series, available on Apple, Spotify and Google. ----more---- In this edition, experienced market practitioner JP Smith reviews the analysis and views of some key IRF Providers focusing on the outlook for energy prices, bonds and equities in the light of recent developments in China and the conflict between Russia and the Ukraine.    This episode includes: CrossBorder Capital, Talking Heads Macro, The pH Report, Emerging Advisors Group, PRC Macro, Global Forecaster, Independent Strategy, Greenmantle, Eurointelligence, CHA-AM Advisors, Totem Macro, Variant Perception and Copley Fund Research.

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Ron William, the Founder of RW Advisory to discuss the performance of the US dollar in 2022 and indicate how he expects it to perform against other major currencies in 2023.   ----more---- Ron compares the similar trends in the US and UK government bond markets and points out the implications for both interest rates and bond yields in 2023.   With respect to the world's major stock markets, Ron contrasts the remarkably different trends in the US S&P 500 Index and the UK FTSE 100 Index and assesses how both markets could perform in 2023. With regard to the Emerging Markets, he highlights two of the stock markets that are likely to do well in 2023. Ron also assesses the trend in the gold price and compares the prospects for gold in 2023 with the outlook for the price of silver.   Looking further ahead, Ron discusses the importance of the 45-60 year Kondratieff Cycle. He explains that we are now in the late stage of the K-wave cycle and points out how this is expected to influence the world's financial markets in the years ahead.   RW Advisory specialises in blended, top-down, semi-discretionary analysis, driven by cycles and by proprietary timing models. Ron is a market strategist with over 20 years of experience producing macro research and trading strategies for leading economic research and institutional firms.  

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Ryoji Musha, the Founder of Musha Research. Musha Research was founded in 2009 following Ryoji Musha's long and distinguished career working for leading global investment banks in Japan and the USA since 1973. During that period, he achieved the top-rating for Japan Equity Strategy in the Institutional Investor polls. ----more----   This podcast explores why the Japanese economy is beginning to emerge from the torpor of the post-1990 crash that has dogged the country for over three decades. In 2022 a weaker yen has transformed Japan's international competitive position with profound implications for Japan's economy, economic policy and corporate strategy. Also highlighted is the importance of longer term global geopolitical factors, particularly the evolution of Japan's trading relationship with the USA and the emergence of the Chinese economy as a major player on the world stage.   Ryoji Musha assesses the outlook for Japan's monetary policy and discusses the future direction of yield curve control and Japan's ultra-low interest rates. He points out the beneficial effects of a moderately weaker yen for Japan's domestic demand, production of exports and the relocation of factories from abroad. A cheaper yen is also encouraging more tourists to visit Japan. In addition, he believes that Japanese equities are now extremely undervalued, thereby potentially encouraging more corporate share buybacks.   Musha Research was founded in 2009 to provide more direct assistance with financial market analysis and determination of medium and long-term outlooks. The activities of Musha Research are guided by three principles: adhering to consistent logic; reaching conclusions based on their own beliefs; and using a viewpoint that incorporates both history and a global perspective.  

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Jeffrey Christian, the Founder and Managing Partner of CPM Group. Jeffrey has been a prominent analyst and advisor on the commodities markets since the 1970s with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, the agricultural markets and economic analysis. ----more---- In this podcast Jeffrey provides a wide-ranging rundown on the outlook for commodities in 2023. He assesses the relative prospects for the prices of gold and silver, as well as the differing outlook for the prices of platinum and palladium.   In the energy sector, Jeff focuses on the various factors influencing the prices of crude oil and natural gas. He then assesses the demand and supply factors that will impact on the prices of various base metals, including aluminium, copper, lead and nickel. In the agricultural markets, Jeff sets out his views on the prospects for the prices of several soft commodities, including corn, soybean, wheat, beef, pork and coffee. In addition, Jeff discusses the flow of funds into the commodities sector and explains why he expects global asset allocators to invest a higher proportion of their funds in commodities in the years ahead.   Founded in 1986, CPM Group is an independent commodities research, consulting, asset management and investment banking firm that provides comprehensive research, analysis and advisory services.

IRF represents high-quality and differentiated Independent Research and Alternative Data Providers. This is the third episode of the IRF Research and Markets Podcast series, available on Apple, Spotify and Google. ----more---- In this edition experienced market practitioner, JP Smith examines the analysis and views of the IRF's best-in-class Independent Research Providers on the outlook for inflation, China, emerging markets and the Russia/Ukraine conflict.   JP outlines the shift in the market environment compared with the post-GFC period from 2009 to 2020 and suggests strategies for investors to preserve the real value of their assets.   Independent Research Providers mentioned in this episode include: Aitken Advisors, Minack Advisors, Talking Heads Macro, Andrew Hunt Economics, Teneo, J Capital Research, CrossBorder Capital, The pH Report, Independent Strategy, Alef Advisory, Totem Macro and Emerging Advisors Group.

In this latest episode of the IRF Podcast series, available on Apple, Spotify and Google, JP Smith of the IRF is joined by Dr Peter Warburton, Founder of Economic Perspectives, to discuss the structural outlook for the UK economy in the wake of the recent budget. ----more---- Economic Perspectives take an eclectic approach to the inflation outlook, considering political and socio-economic factors alongside macroeconomic drivers, building on the analysis of the development of global debt markets laid out in Peter's book 'Debt and Delusion'.   In this podcast, Peter spells out how policy and forecasting errors by the UK government, Bank of England and the Office for Budgetary Responsibility are primarily responsible for high inflation, low growth and the rising budget deficit. He explains his scepticism that the BOE will be able to take the sort of measures necessary to bring inflation even close to the target level but also provocatively argues that inflation will help to bring about a necessary generational and social redistribution of resources and pave the way for a regeneration of the UK economy and society over the medium term.   Finally, Peter and JP discuss the international context and the implications of the Economic Perspectives hypothesis for asset allocation and the ability of investors to preserve the value of their wealth in real terms in this challenging environment.

JP Smith of the IRF is joined by Anne Stevenson-Yang Co-Founder and CEO of J Capital Research to discuss the political and economic outlook in China. ----more---- J Capital combines both top-down macro and bottom-up industry and company specific analysis in the research and consultancy service for institutional investors.   In this podcast, Anne discusses the prospects for Covid reopening in the context of Beijing's ongoing shift towards more authoritarian and autarkic policies. She outlines the case for continuing slow growth, pours cold water over the liklihood of a rebalancing towards consumer spending and explains why she doubts there will be a Minsky Moment for the Chinese economy.   Anne and JP debate the prospects for commodity markets in the light of the China slowdown and also whether investors should adopt a contrarian more positive approach towards Chinese equities, which have underperformed the majority of their peers in both emerging and developed markets over the past eighteen months.

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Zekeriya Ozturk, the Founder of iRes Independent Financial Research & Advisory. What does the future hold for Turkish politics, the economy and the financial markets? In a world that has become more divided between East and West, Turkey's position at the crossroads of Europe and Asia gives it even greater importance in both economic and geopolitical terms. With a population of over 84 million people and a GDP per capita of over US$8,000, Turkey has enormous emerging market potential. Zekeriya has over 25 years of top-quality experience of the financial markets in Turkey and in other emerging economies. ----more---- In this podcast, Zek explains the political trends in Turkey that will dominate the all-important presidential election, which is scheduled to take place in the middle of 2023. He discusses Turkey's problem with high inflation and how it impacts on the prospects for economic growth. Zek also assesses the outlook for Turkey's external trade and balance of payments. In addition, he highlights the key factors impacting on the prospects for interest rates, bond yields and the Turkish lira. Zek also considers some of the various attractive opportunities in the stock market.   Founded in 2013, iRes provides thematic research and investment ideas with the combination of in-depth political, macroeconomic, sector and stock analysis. The primary focus of iRes is the Turkish market, however the firm also provides broad strategies for the Emerging Markets, as well as investment assessments on client specific areas of interest on an exclusive basis.

We are delighted to bring you the next episode of IRF's new podcast series, Research and Markets: “Key Developments in Emerging Markets, China and Russia/Ukraine”, hosted by JP Smith.----more---- JP is an experienced market practitioner as former Head of EM Equity & Chief Strategist at Pictet and Equity Strategist at Deutsche Bank. This podcast series aims to provide greater awareness around IRF's Independent Research Providers by generating topical and relevant content. JP highlights research and draws on material from publicly available news sources, social media, and other podcasts to monitor the shifting debates and narratives that move markets. The focus is on medium and long-term thematic issues rather than day to day trading.   In episode two JP draws on the work of best-in-class IRF Research Providers to review three key issues in emerging markets, namely the impact of the strong US dollar on EM economies and financial markets, the medium-term prognosis for China's economy and finally, recent developments in the Russia/Ukraine conflict.   This episode includes the following IRF Providers: Emerging Advisors Group, Independent Strategy, CrossBorder Capital, Greenmantle, Suttle Economics, Andrew Hunt Economics, Totem Macro, Talking Heads Macro, The pH Report, China Beige Book, PRC Macro, Teneo, J Capital, Eurointelligence.

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Manoj Pradhan, the Co-Founder of Talking Heads Macro. ----more---- In 2019, Manoj Pradhan and Charles Goodhart co-authored a very influential book, entitled: “The Great Demographic Reversal – Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality and an Inflation Revival”. With its focus on longer-term trends, this book sets out important signposts to the demographic, economic and social trends that will be increasingly important in the post-pandemic decades. In their book they predicted that inflation would take off and that interest rates would Increase in response to secular trends, such as ageing societies and deglobalization. They argued that this revival of inflation would not be transitory. Their predictions are proving to be alarmingly accurate.   In this podcast, Manoj Pradhan discusses the various drivers of inflation and how they are changing, both in the short term and in the longer run. He assesses the importance of deglobalisation, supply chain constraints, labour shortages, productivity trends and demographics for the inflation outlook. Manoj points out that some inflationary pressures will persist beyond the peak of the current revival. He discusses what this means for economic policy and for economic growth. Manoj concludes with an assessment of the implications for the financial markets in certain advanced economies and emerging markets.   Talking Heads Macro (THM) was established in 2016 by Manoj and his cofounder, Charles Goodhart, the highly-regarded former member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee and Professor at the London School of Economics. Using an outstanding mix of applied and academic thinking, their unique framework lets them develop perspectives on asset prices that traditional research completely misses. THM generates macroeconomic trade recommendations on a 6-12-month horizon by showing how current developments fit into longer-term themes.

The IRF is excited to announce a new podcast series titled ‘Research and Markets' hosted by JP Smith, an experienced market practitioner as former Head of EM Equity at Pictet and Sell-Side Strategist at Deutsche. ----more----This podcast aims to provide greater awareness around the IRF's Independent Research Providers by generating topical and relevant content. JP highlights research and draws on material from publicly available news sources, social media, and other podcasts to monitor the shifting debates and narratives that move markets. The focus will be on medium and long term thematic issues rather than day to day trading. In this first Research and Markets podcast JP draws on some of the IRF's best-in-class Research Providers to ask whether financial markets are about to undergo another major transition. He notes the increasing tendency of markets to overshoot given the dominance of momentum investors. JP examines three main themes, namely US inflation, the Russia/Ukraine conflict and the slowdown in the Chinese economy, to evaluate the possibilities of an end to the flight to the USD and the prospects for longer duration US bonds to perform well at the expense of global equity markets.