Podcast appearances and mentions of charles goodhart

In this episode, Andy showcases an incredible discussion with sales leaders Mark Hunter, sales speaker, trainer and consultant, Todd Busler, CEO at Champify, and Tom Williams, Head of Revenue Strategies at Clari. The panel discusses whether sales quotas are still relevant or useful, and explore other ways to measure and reward overall productivity. They explore the psychological impact of quotas, the importance of having measurable targets, and other productivity-based assessments. They get into some insights from Charles Goodhart's law, how focusing solely on targets can limit true potential, and also touch on ways to accurately calculate sales productivity and the benefits of a more nuanced approach to evaluating sales performance.Listen to the full episode on Apple and SpotifyHost Andy Paul is the expert on modern B2B selling and author of three best-selling, award-winning sales books, including his latest Sell Without Selling Out. Visit andypaul.com to subscribe to his newsletter for even more strategies and tips to accelerate your win rate.

McAlvany Weekly Commentary Inflation & Interest Rates Higher For Much Longer Aging Population Is A Paradigm Shift Your Best Investment Is In Skills For Your Children The post An Interview With Charles Goodhart appeared first on McAlvany Weekly Commentary.

In 2020, Manoj Pradhan and Charles Goodhart produced a very influential book, which was entitled: “The Great Demographic Reversal – Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality and an Inflation Revival”. In their book they predicted that in the medium-term inflation would take off and that interest rates would increase in response to secular trends, such as ageing societies and deglobalisation. They argued that this revival of inflation would not be transitory. ----more---- In this podcast, Manoj Pradhan assesses the importance of deglobalisation, supply chain constraints, labour shortages, productivity trends, A.I. and demographics for the inflation outlook. Manoj then discusses the extent to which these inflationary factors are coming into play in 2024-2025. He considers what this means for fiscal policies, monetary policies and for economic growth in the G7 economies in the longer run. Manoj discusses the implications for the financial markets in several of the main advanced economies and emerging markets. He concludes with an assessment of some of the best investment opportunities in the currency, bond and equity markets, as well as pointing out what he would avoid at present. Talking Heads Macro (THM) was established in 2016 by Manoj and his Co-Founder, Charles Goodhart, the renowned former member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee and Professor at the London School of Economics. Using an outstanding mix of applied and academic thinking, their unique framework lets them develop perspectives on asset prices that traditional research completely misses. THM generates macroeconomic trade recommendations on a 6-12-month horizon by showing how current developments fit into longer-term themes.

So often, the Inflation Guy is asked to recommend a good book on inflation. Just one? That's crazy. There are oodles of good books on inflation, and in this episode the Inflation Guy recommends eight. Okay, one of the recommendations was less-than-enthusiastic. But these are all worth reading. Listen to the podcast, and visit the links below to see the books in Amazon or other site. Disclosure: the Inflation Guy doesn't make a red cent from clicking those links. So click away. NOTES Podcast Callback: Ep. 15: An Interview with Special Guest Milton Friedman Books Referred to: Fiat Money Inflation in France, Andrew Dickson White, 1933 (free pdf) When Money Dies, Adam Fergusson, 2010 Inflated: How Money and Debt Built the American Dream, R. Christopher Whalen, 2010 The Great Inflation and Its Aftermath: The Past and Future of American Affluence, Robert J. Samuelson, 2010 (funny how many of these are from 2010. Never noticed that before.) Money Mischief: Episodes in Monetary History, Milton Friedman, 1994 Asking About Prices: A New Approach to Understanding Price Stickiness, Alan Blinder, Elie Canerri, David Lebow, 1998 The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival, Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan, 2020 The Mandibles: A Family, 2029-2047, Lionel Shriver, 2017 To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the new website!: https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

La Ley de Goodhart nos enseña que cuando una métrica se convierte en el objetivo, pierde su valor original y puede conducir a consecuencias no deseadas. Un ejemplo famoso es el Efecto Cobra en la India, donde la recompensa por matar cobras llevó a la gente a criarlas en su lugar. En lugar de centrarnos en una métrica específica, debemos asegurarnos de que nuestras acciones estén alineadas con el objetivo general. Como dijo Charles Goodhart, "Cuando un indicador se convierte en objetivo, pierde su valor como indicador". ¡Recuerda siempre mantener el objetivo en mente!

Labor markets around the world tightened during the pandemic, contributing to a rapid rise in inflation. Demographic changes could make tight labor markets a lasting characteristic of the global economy. Most of the world's biggest economies are home to an aging citizenry, while their populations are growing at a slower rate overall. These trends have the potential to alter market dynamics in the decades to come. Katharine Neiss, PGIM Fixed Income's Chief European Economist, and Charles Goodhart, Emeritus Professor at the London School of Economics and author of The Great Demographic Reversal, join us as we explore the inflationary effects of demographic changes, the implications for monetary and fiscal policy, and how aging populations could reshape the economy and the global investment landscape.

This week we discuss an excellent book - 'The Great Demographic Reversal' by Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan.  You can buy the book here.  https://uk.bookshop.org/books/the-great-demographic-reversal-ageing-societies-waning-inequality-and-an-inflation-revival/9783030426569 

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Manoj Pradhan, the Co-Founder of Talking Heads Macro. ----more---- In 2019, Manoj Pradhan and Charles Goodhart co-authored a very influential book, entitled: “The Great Demographic Reversal – Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality and an Inflation Revival”. With its focus on longer-term trends, this book sets out important signposts to the demographic, economic and social trends that will be increasingly important in the post-pandemic decades. In their book they predicted that inflation would take off and that interest rates would Increase in response to secular trends, such as ageing societies and deglobalization. They argued that this revival of inflation would not be transitory. Their predictions are proving to be alarmingly accurate.   In this podcast, Manoj Pradhan discusses the various drivers of inflation and how they are changing, both in the short term and in the longer run. He assesses the importance of deglobalisation, supply chain constraints, labour shortages, productivity trends and demographics for the inflation outlook. Manoj points out that some inflationary pressures will persist beyond the peak of the current revival. He discusses what this means for economic policy and for economic growth. Manoj concludes with an assessment of the implications for the financial markets in certain advanced economies and emerging markets.   Talking Heads Macro (THM) was established in 2016 by Manoj and his cofounder, Charles Goodhart, the highly-regarded former member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee and Professor at the London School of Economics. Using an outstanding mix of applied and academic thinking, their unique framework lets them develop perspectives on asset prices that traditional research completely misses. THM generates macroeconomic trade recommendations on a 6-12-month horizon by showing how current developments fit into longer-term themes.

In Episode 272 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with economist and author Charles Goodhart. Professor Goodhart is widely recognized for his contributions to the fields of monetary economics and central bank policy and is famously associated with what we commonly refer to as “Goodhart's Law,” the stipulation that any observed statistical regularity ceases to function as an objective or accurate measure the moment that it becomes a target of public policy. Both professor Goodhart and his co-author and former colleague Manoj Pradhan recently coauthored a book titled “The Great Demographic Reversal,” which puts forward a compelling and controversial argument about the long-term effects of an aging society on inflation, interest rates, investment, savings, and consumption, as well as economic growth and public policy decisions related to things like taxes and government spending—all of which are discussed in today's episode. The main argument put forward by both authors is that the inevitable decline in dependency ratios caused by aging demographics will lead to structural, long-term increases in interest rates and inflation that will strain government finances and jeopardize the policy-making independence of central banks as their mandates to control inflation come increasingly into conflict with the objectives of politicians and national governments.  The objective of today's episode is to more fully explore the arguments and assumptions that Charles Goodhart and his co-author make in their book, the evidence in support of their conclusions, and the implications of their findings and projections for the economy, investors, and governments. You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week's conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 09/14/2022

How slowing population growth and an eventual population peak will lead to competition for foreign workers, potentially higher inflation, and ultimately the need to transition to a steady-state economy rather than one based on constantly producing more.Topics covered include:How longevity and birthrates impact population growthWhat areas of the world are seeing population increases versus declinesWhy high income countries will need more immigrants in order to sustain their population levelsWhen is global population expected to peak and at what levelWill greater dependency ratios lead to higher inflationWhat is the difference between growth and developmentHow slowing population growth will impact investmentsWhy the world will need to transition to a steady-state economy focused on well-being rather than growthSponsorsLinkedIn Jobs - post your job for freeMoney For the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesWorld Population Prospects 2022: Summary of Results—United Nations Department of Economy and Social AffairsFive Key Findings from the 2022 UN Population Prospects by Hannah Ritchie, et al.Germany Plans to Simplify Immigration Rules to Combat Labour Shortage—Schengen VisaHigh Cost Deters IT Gurus from Filling Luxembourg Jobs by Kate OglesbyAnother Beautiful Italian Town Is Selling €1 Homes—This Time, No Deposit Required by Cailey RizzoWill Inflation Make a Comeback as Populations Age? by Olli RehnThe Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Wanting Inequality, and an Inflation Revival by Charles Goodhart and Manoj PradhanThe Enduring Link Between Demography and Inflation by Mikael Juselius and Elöd TakátsUnions Are Now a Lifestyle Choice for Some Young, Aspirational Workers, Says Walter Olson—The EconomistEconomics for a Full World by Herman DalyThis Pioneering Economist Says Our Obsession with Growth Must End by David MarcheseThe Environmental Kuznets Curve by David I. SternSmall Is Beautiful: Economics as if People Mattered by Ernst F. SchumacherSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

E51 – BONUSPOD: Inflasjon, ulikhet, gjeld og høyere renter: Hva nå?De siste 30 årene har inflasjonen i økonomien vært lav. Dette har gitt markant lavere renter, og det spesielt det siste tiåret etter finanskrisen og under pandemien.Både i fjor og så langt i 2022 har inflasjonen både i Norge og globalt tatt seg kraftig opp.Hva betyr dette for pengepolitikken og inflasjonsmålet som er hva sentralbankene formelt sett styrer etter?Og: Hva betyr dette for boligmarkedet?I dette opptaket fra Eiendom Norge konferansen 2022 møter du professor Charles Goodhart fra London School of Economics, som fordrar om hvordan inflasjon igjen vil bli en faktor i økonomien og pengepolitikken på grunn av demografiske endringer både globalt og i vestlige land.Du møter også stipendiat Ingrid Hjertaker (Høyskolen i Innlandet), sjefsøkonom Roger Bjørnstad (LO), Seniorøkonom Kyrre Amdal (DNB Markets) og professor Gisle James Natvik (Handelshøyskolen BI) i en panelsamtale om hva dette betyr for norsk økonomi og det norske boligmarkedet.Ordstyrer var sjef for kommunikasjon og politikk, Erik Lundesgaard, Eiendom Norge. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Charles Goodhart, emeritus professor of economics at the London School of Economics and Political Science, talks to David Marsh, chairman of OMFIF, about his theses on the effects of demography and immigration, the revival of inflation and the threat to central bank independence. He sees this latter danger as particularly virulent from right-wing governments, including from the possibility of a re-elected Donald Trump (or indeed from a return of any Republican administration in the US).  Goodhart is a veteran central bank watcher who was a founder member of the Bank of England monetary policy committee in 1997-2000. He has warned for years that central banks may be unable to tighten interest rates sufficiently to ward off inflation because this would further exacerbate the budgetary problems of debt-ridden governments. In his prescient book from 2020, co-authored with Manoj Pradhan, The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival, the two authors explain the societal and economic changes wrought an ageing society.  They believe that the fall in the workforce will inevitably shift bargaining power to lower-paid workers and trade unions. Political resistance, they forecast, will prevent immigration from being large enough to reinflate the supply of labour and diminish inflationary pressures.

Benzin, Butter, Malerarbeiten: Die Preise für viele Güter und Dienstleistungen des Alltags steigen seit ein paar Monaten immer schneller – in Europa und in Amerika. Die Inflation lag in Deutschland zuletzt so hoch wie seit 30 Jahren nicht mehr. Geht das bald vorüber? Oder verlieren Löhne und Ersparnisse weiter an Wert? Und was können die Notenbanken tun, um die Preise unter Kontrolle zu bringen? Über diese Fragen sprechen Lisa Nienhaus und Jens Tönnesmann in einer neuen Folge des Wirtschaftspodcasts "Ist das eine Blase?" von ZEIT und ZEIT ONLINE. Zu Gast haben sie den britischen Ökonomen Charles Goodhart, nach dem nicht nur ein ökonomisches Gesetz benannt ist: Er hat auch als einer der wenigen die aktuelle Inflation präzise vorhergesehen. Mit ihm sprechen sie über seine Erfahrung mit der Inflation in früheren Zeiten – und über seinen Rat fürs Hier und Jetzt. Er erklärt, wieso er jetzt eine Gehaltserhöhung fordern würde und man bloß nicht in Bitcoin investieren sollte ("Finger weg!"). Goodhart fürchtet, dass die Preise weiter steigen werden – anders als es einige Experten wie die Chefin der Europäischen Zentralbank, Christine Lagarde, vorhersagen. Unter anderem sorgt er sich, dass die Omikron-Variante des Coronavirus China hart treffen könnte. Wenn die billigen chinesischen Produkte fehlten am Weltmarkt, würde das "massiv inflationär" wirken. Goodhart kritisiert die Europäische Zentralbank, zu zögerlich zu reagieren. "Die Zinssätze sind fast lächerlich niedrig", sagt Goodhart. Er findet: "Das erste, was jetzt zu tun ist, ist, die Zinsen von einem außergewöhnlich niedrigen Niveau wieder auf ein Niveau anzuheben, das der Norm näherkommt." Im Wirtschaftspodcast "Ist das eine Blase?" sprechen Lisa Nienhaus, Jens Tönnesmann und Lisa Hegemann immer montags über das, was die Welt im Innersten zusammenhält: Geld, Macht, Gerechtigkeit. Alle 14 Tage untersuchen je zwei der Moderatoren ein wirtschaftliches Phänomen und fragen sich, ob es sich um einen kurzfristigen Hype handelt oder ob es bleibt. Immer mit einem Gast – und einem Tier.

How can China and the international community work together to deal with the impact of aging populations? Tune into the panel discussion with Charles Goodhart, emeritus professor of banking and finance at LSE, and Peng Wensheng, chief economist & head of the research department at CICC, and executive dean of CGI. Moderated by Wang Liwei, senior writer, Caixin Media

This week I talk to Peter Spiller, CIO of CG Asset Management about whether inflation is going to be transitory or permanent. Peter also explains how he and the team are investing in this inflationary environment.   Peter Spiller:      https://www.cgasset.com/our-team/ Paul Dixey:          https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-dixey/   Literature: The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival by Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan The Holy Grail of Economics by Richard Koo

Global population ageing will soon reach a point where saving for retirement tips over into increased spending and demand for labor. This will result in much higher inflation and interest rates than many of us are expecting currently. Join us to hear Manoj Pradhan, Chief Economist at the independent macroeconomic research firm Talking Heads, on his latest book ‘The Great Demographic Reversal', which he co-authored with Charles Goodhart.

This episode is sponsored by Masterworks. Charles Goodhart CBE is Emeritus Professor of Banking and Finance at the LSE, having previously been its Deputy Director. Previously, he had worked at the Bank of England for seventeen years including as Chief Adviser and later In 1997 as independent members of the Bank of England's new Monetary Policy Committee until May 2000. He is the developer of Goodhart's law, an economic law named after him. He has written numerous books including the graduate monetary textbook, 'Money, Information and Uncertainty', ‘The Regulatory Response to the Financial Crisis' (2009) and most recently ‘The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival' (2020). In the podcast, we talk about: Importance of understanding money demand and the money multiplier Should central banks target monetary aggregates and house prices? The problem with the Fed's new inflation targeting objectives. Understanding China's integration to the global economy The challenges of an ageing population Factors that depressed inflation are now turning Why didn't ageing Japan see inflation Why demographics in the US are inflationary Can India and Africa provide the necessary demographic boost to offset DM ageing? Can Tech replace the missing working age population? How to fix the global debt problem Books that influenced Charles: A Monetary History of the United States (Friedman, Schwartz), Golden Fetters (Eichengreen), the works of Dennis Robertson, James Tobin, Charles Kindleberger, and Robert Eisler

Charles Goodhart is professor emeritus of monetary economics at the London School of Economics. Charles was a member of the monetary policy committee at the Bank of England between '97 and 2002 and is a fellow of the British Academy. Manoj Pradhan is the founder of Talking Heads Macro, an independent macro research firm, a former MD in Morgan Stanley's global macro team, and previously an academic. The book, The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival, provides a thought-provoking narrative to the drivers of and outlook for inflation. They conclude that the benign inflation environment of the past three decades was made easy by accommodative global demographics and that the turn in demography will present a much more challenging environment for policy makers going forward. *** About the BCG Henderson Institute The BCG Henderson Institute is the Boston Consulting Group's think tank, dedicated to exploring and developing valuable new insights from business, technology, economics, and science by embracing the powerful technology of ideas. The Institute engages leaders in provocative discussion and experimentation to expand the boundaries of business theory and practice and to translate innovative ideas from within and beyond business. For more ideas and inspiration, sign up to receive BHI INSIGHTS, our monthly newsletter, and follow us on LinkedIn and Twitter.

Since the 1980s, the United States has prioritized low inflation, to great success. Policymakers have regularly kept inflation at or below their 2-percent targets, even during periods with record-low interest rates. As a result, many observers have been — and continue to be — pretty comfortable with spending trillions of dollars on pandemic relief… and now infrastructure projects. But what if the low inflation we've experienced has been temporary? What if an aging workforce and diminishing returns from globalization will cause wages and prices to begin rising more steeply? That's the argument made by today's guests, Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan. Charles is a financial markets professor emeritus at the London School of Economics, and a former member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee. Manoj is the founder and chief economist of the independent macroeconomic research firm Talking Heads. They are the co-authors of “https://www.amazon.com/Great-Demographic-Reversal-Societies-Inequality/dp/3030426564 (The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival),” released last August.

Zwei Experten zu den makroökonomischen Auswirkungen der großen demografischen WendeDas zentrale Diskussionsthema in dieser 63. Ausgabe von „beyond the obvious – der Ökonomie-Podcast mit Dr. Daniel Stelter“ ist die potentielle Rückkehr von Inflation und Zins. Zwei renommierte Gesprächspartner erläutern dabei ihre Theorien. Zum einen Charles Goodhart, ehemals Mitglied des geldpolitischen Ausschusses der Bank of England. Zum anderen Manoj Pradhan, Gründer des unabhängigen Forschungsunternehmens Talking Heads Macroeconomics in London. Dort werden globale makroökonomische Trends und die Auswirkungen auf die Finanzmärkte untersucht. Grundlage des Gesprächs mit Daniel Stelter ist ihr Buch “The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival” (Die große demografische Umkehr: Alternde Gesellschaften, abnehmende Ungleichheit und ein Wiederaufleben der Inflation). Das ungekürzte Originalinterview (englisch) und weitere Informationen zum Nachlesen finden Sie im Blog auf think-beyondtheobvious.com. Fragen und Rückmeldungen zu diesem Podcast schicken Sie per E-Mail an podcast@think-bto.com. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Das zentrale Diskussionsthema in dieser 63. Ausgabe von „beyond the obvious – der Ökonomie-Podcast mit Dr. Daniel Stelter“ ist die potentielle Rückkehr von Inflation und Zins. Zwei renommierte Gesprächspartner erläutern dabei ihre Theorien. Zum einen Charles Goodhart, ehemals Mitglied des geldpolitischen Ausschusses der Bank of England. Zum anderen Manoj Pradhan, Gründer des unabhängigen Forschungsunternehmens Talking Heads Macroeconomics in London. Dort werden globale makroökonomische Trends und die Auswirkungen auf die Finanzmärkte untersucht. Grundlage des Gesprächs mit Daniel Stelter ist ihr Buch “The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival” (Die große demografische Umkehr: Alternde Gesellschaften, abnehmende Ungleichheit und ein Wiederaufleben der Inflation). Das ungekürzte Originalinterview (englisch) und weitere Informationen zum Nachlesen finden Sie im Blog auf think-beyondtheobvious.com. Fragen und Rückmeldungen zu diesem Podcast schicken Sie per E-Mail an podcast@think-bto.com.

一週財經聚焦 一、美國聯準會在2021年的首次決策會議中，重申貨幣政策將持續按兵不動，但隨著美國10年期公債殖利率近來的升破1％，凸顯通貨膨脹正在增加。通膨、利率和縮減購債等議題，注定會是2021年的市場關注焦點。 國際媒體相關報導 ●彭博商業週刊Bloomberg：〈Rising Inflation Will Force the Fed's Hand〉(通貨膨脹率上升，將迫使聯準會採取行動) 聯準會創造了歷史上最大的金融泡沫，但油價的上漲，將必需從根本上重新思考貨幣政策。 ●倫敦金融時報：〈No, inflation isn't back ，At least not yet.〉(不，通貨膨脹沒有回來，起碼還沒有) ●CNBC：〈This metric suggests there's an economic boom ahead — and possibly inflation〉(該指標表明，未來會有經濟繁榮—但也可能夾帶通貨膨脹) 分析解讀 2020年即將離去，疫情尚未遠離，通貨膨脹陰影卻已隱隱成型。根據統計，各國的紓困達到了20兆美元的規模，如果物價飆升，政府肯定會面臨無止境紓困的壓力；如果通貨膨脹成真，工人和消費者會從薪資和家庭帳單上首先感到壓力，退休族的年金更會首當其衝。 倫敦經濟學院現年83歲的學者Charles Goodhart在去年八月出版的《人口大逆轉》(The Great Demographic Reversal)一書，書中認為40年前的通貨膨脹噩夢即將重現，這在西方世界捲起了千層雪，更讓疫情過後的2021年增添了更多的不確定。 各國政府對於經濟的復甦，是不是過度自滿了？理所當然的低通膨定調以及今天的經濟政策，會不會凸顯了政府未雨綢繆的工作根本沒有準備好？ 我認為，低通膨的假設確實已被大家認為理所當然。這正是各國中央銀行敢於將利率降至零，並購買大量政府債券的真正原因。它還說明為使經濟免受疫情的摧殘，政府為什麼敢進行如此大規模的支出和借貸狂潮，以及為什麼富裕國家的公共債務即使到了GDP的125％，還是沒有引起人們的警覺。 然而，越來越多的不同聲音指出，這個世界可能會從疫情反彈中，迎來一個通貨膨脹的新時代。他們的說法目前仍然很難說服大家，但他們的論點也不盡然空洞且毫無根據。全球債務庫存已經如此之大，央行的資產負債表還在不停膨脹，即使通貨膨脹還不至於迫在眉梢，政府也不該忽略這個風險，唯有立即採取行動，確保自己有足夠的抵禦能力，方為上策。 我記得在1975年，《泰晤士報》的記者Adam Fergusson曾經寫過一本書，名字就叫《When Money Dies當金錢死去》，內容詳述了惡性通貨膨脹的歷史。過去幾十年的低通膨伴隨的高增長確實讓我們忘懷了通貨膨脹的可怕，但如果要說2020年的疫情給了我們什麼教訓，那就是許多我們已不再擔心的問題，隨時會以突如其來的陌生方式迎面而來。我們當然可以對這些危言聳聽的通貨膨脹觀點嗤之以鼻，但僅憑現況去推斷未來，確實充滿風險。 那個讓我們長時間習以為常的低位世界隨時可能消失，大變化更是無時無刻不在發生，嚴肅面對生活中的理所當然一夕翻盤，很可能不是危言聳聽。 二、回顧2020年，新冠肺炎蔓延至全球，商業活動停滯，衝擊到所有產業鏈。為了振興經濟，各國政府競相採取寬鬆的貨幣政策，大量舉債提供紓困，造成政府、企業財務負擔沈重。若疫情獲得控制，疫苗接種成功，APEC(經濟合作暨發展組織)預測今年全球經濟有4.2%的正成長。真的這麼好嗎？我們又該如何展望2021年的全球金融市場？ 國際媒體相關報導 ●倫敦金融時報：〈Global tech, emerging markets and pandemic uncertainties: opportunities and risks in 2021. Investment bosses at some of the world's biggest asset managers look ahead〉(全球科技、新興市場和疫情的不確定：2021年的機遇與風險。一些全球最大的資產管理公司的投資老闆們開始放眼未來。) ●CNBC：〈A new global arms race in digital finance is heating up〉(一個新的全球數位金融軍備競賽正在升溫) 超過80％的中央銀行都在探索自己的加密貨幣。美國正在與包括中國和歐盟在內的其他世界大國競爭，目的是領導數位金融和去中心化區塊鏈技術。 ●華爾街日報：〈Covid-19 Complacency Poses Potential Risk to Global Financial Stability, IMF Warns〉(國際貨幣基金組織警告，Covid-19的自滿情緒，會給全球金融穩定帶來潛在風險) 投資者對經濟復甦與政府支持的期待，促升了資產價格，並引發了人們對風險過高的擔憂。 分析解讀 即將結束的2020年，是人類歷史上極為特別的一年，也是第二次世界大戰結束75年來，第一次出現的全球貧困人口上升、全球化逆轉、食品短缺、飢餓人口上升。 面對百年一遇的危機，各國政府進行了大量公醫療、財政、貨幣等的危機應對之策。金融市場在2020年也創造了很多歷史記錄。那麼，現在應該如何看待2021年的全球金融市場?我個人預測可能有以下幾個現象發生： 1.首次公開上市(IPO)將爆發式增長，推動全球股市先漲後跌 2021年最大的金融事件，將會是大量的IPO上市。疫情引發了聯準會的大規模量化寬鬆政策，導致市場流動性極為充分。實際上，2020年秋天開始，美國企業的上市數量就已經開始大規模增加。這有三個比較特別的原因： 第一，民主黨入主白宮後將開始加稅。包括對於資本利得稅、個人所得稅都有大幅上升。因此許多獨角獸企業都將在2021年和時間賽跑，盡快實現掛牌，避免稅收增加、收入減少。 第二個原因是政府支持。美股上市公司流通股數量由於各個上市公司的不斷大規模回購、併購，導致在過去十年流通股數量每年下降2%-5%。美國IPO的總數，在過去二十年下降了兩千多家。比較明顯的就是微軟(MSFT.US)、谷歌(GOOG.US)、蘋果(AAPL.US)、臉書(FB.US)等，每年回購幾千億美元的股票，併購數十家企業。 第三個原因，是大量獨角獸企業的期權將會很快到期，所以很多企業創辦人或是員工，都急著趕快IPO。但是，伴隨著這些獨角獸企業高估值上市，以及股份解除鎖定期後的大量股東套現，我推測，美股在2021年下半年進入疲軟的可能性很大。如果加上加稅的財政政策，2021年下半年美股大跌，全球進入熊市的機率也相對較高。 2.全球破產違約潮，導致債券投資人損失慘重 疫情爆發後，全球都推出了緊急救助措施，這導致了全球各國的槓桿率大幅增長。2020年可能是發達國家過去100年債務上升最快的一年，高於第二次世界大戰期間的借款速度。 但是，不管是大量僵屍企業的借款，還是很多國家的主權債務，2021年可能都面臨嚴重的違約風險。可以預計會有大量中小企業，在嚴重的負現金流情況下，選擇破產停業。很多新興市場國家的債務也面臨同樣的問題。 可以預期的是，如果大量違約發生，固定收益類產品投資人的損失將會極為嚴重。包括投資企業債券、銀行貸款組合、高收益債券、新興市場國家主權債券…..等商品的投資人都要特別小心，因為可能面臨一些本金大幅減少、債務重組、延期支付等問題。 3.通貨膨脹與通貨緊縮並存 我認為2021年可能會出現的是「一半是火焰，一半是海水」的物價變化，也就是消費品通貨膨脹率有限，甚至通貨緊縮，但是工農業原料價格出現通貨膨脹的跡象。加上全球的流動性釋放，2021年中期可能會有週期性惡性通貨膨脹的可能性。 4.金融科技企業全面壓制傳統金融機構 2020年雖然美股整體是牛市，納斯達克指數上漲速度創歷史新高，但是傳統金融機構將面臨數位化跟不上的尷尬壓力。大多數金融科技企業還在業務剛剛開始的初期，2020年的疫情爆發，對於金融科技的發展，起了推波助瀾的功效。 例如以前很多美國人習慣用支票、去銀行櫃台排隊辦理業務、直接去保險公司的購買保單。疫情導致很多人被迫把金融業務轉移到網路或APP上進行，實現移動支付等等。 我相信，2021年會有大量實質的金融、保險、投資、資產管理等業務，由傳統金融機構轉向金融科技企業。 5.各國競相推出數位貨幣 儘管從比特幣到乙太坊等數千種數位貨幣，在市場上已經很多，但數位貨幣目前還沒有被各國央行和金融監管部門完全認可。不過我認為，2021年將會是數位貨幣首度被各國政府正式認可和接納的年份，各種基於區塊鏈技術的加密貨幣支付方式，都有可能在2021年正式推出。 但是裡面的很多概念和運行機構，仍然需要時間來驗證。對於數位貨幣的安全性，也需要繼續投入資源和開發。包括托管機構、交易所、清算機構，各種投資數位貨幣的產品，都會在2021年有非常大的突破。 6.美元匯率可能小幅貶值 目前全球機構投資人對於美元匯率的貶值都有共識，但這個世界的通則是，一旦形成共識，就很難真正發生，這叫「利多出盡」，特別是對於擁有國際儲備貨幣地位的美元來看。 經過2020年的全球經濟衰退，各國都面臨千瘡百孔的經濟復甦需求。如果美元匯率出現大幅度貶值，歐元區、日本、全球新興國家經濟體，也會遇到匯率造成的雙重打擊。目前的各個中央銀行之間有頻繁的協商機制，2021年拜登的政策基調是全球合作，在這個前提下，其實很難看到美元出現大幅度貶值。 7.全球大型科技上市公司會被拆分，也就是反壟斷實現的可能性非常大 2020年美國大選期間最熱門的話題之一，就是科技公司的壟斷。雖然最近幾個月美國的五大科技公司股價有回調，但是谷歌、臉書、蘋果、微軟、亞馬遜(AMZN.US)，這些公司的市場地位還是不斷上升。 觀察美國的歷史，可以發現有一點：美國社會不喜歡壟斷企業。美國歷史上已經成功拆分了洛克菲勒的標準石油公司、美國電話電報公司(AT&T)等等。壟斷對於經濟的創新和發展，確實有負面影響。美國大選期間，很多科技公司的社交平台成為主要的媒體工具，也觸發民眾的強烈反感。 值得一提的是，反壟斷問題不只局限於美國，在其他國家，包括中國，都可能在2021年進行反壟斷行為，促進市場的公平競爭。 8.中美金融和經貿關係可能趨於緩和 拜登入主白宮後，為國際合作開起序章；也有中國金融市場加快開放的趨勢，2020年下半年以來，華爾街很多龍頭資產管理公司和投資銀行，開始進入中國。 目前的中國金融市場體量巨大，完全可以嘗試更大對外資金融機構的開放力度。包括 Vanguard資產管理公司把亞太區總部從香港搬到上海，計劃深耕中國市場，就是非常有代表性的事件。中國的資本市場改革，將是2021年的精彩篇章。 總而言之，我對於2021年的整體投資機會相對樂觀，特別是對於新科技、醫療、e-mobility等領域充滿信心。但疫情對於全球經濟的負面影響仍然不容低估，2021年應該是一個各國合作，實現經濟逐步轉型和復甦的年份，就像黑石集團創辦人Schwartzman說的，每一次經濟危機或者衰退，都是尋找最佳投資機會的時候。經過2020年的疫情衝擊，2021年經濟重啓並實現創新發展，將會給投資人帶來前所未有的好機會。 Powered by Firstory Hosting

Charles Goodhart, emeritus professor of banking and finance at the London School of Economics and Political Science, and Manoj Pradhan, founder of Talking Heads Macro, a research firm, discuss their book The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival. The discussion, led by David Marsh, OMFIF chairman, centres on the effects of demography on price levels as relatively wealthy retirees stoke up global demand for goods produced by a shrinking labour force, leading to product scarcity and bottlenecks. Goodhart's and Pradhan's thesis, which they maintain could lead to sharp falls in bond prices from 2022 onwards as portfolios adjust to higher inflation prospects, has become a major talking point among international policy-makers.

An Interview with the leading expert on demographics and macroeconomics Manoj Pradhan.  Manoj has just published a new book along with Charles Goodhart, former member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee and an Emeritus professor at the London School of Economics.   The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival is one of the most interesting economics books of 2020 and is available on Amazon at this link: https://amzn.to/2RQUYHm Manoj Pradhan, is the founder of Talking Heads Macro and was most recently Managing Director at Morgan Stanley where he led the Global Economics Team. He joined Morgan Stanley in 2005 after serving on the faculty of the George Washington University and the State University of New York. While at Morgan Stanley, Manoj worked on quantitative macroeconomics, emerging markets and global economics. He has a PhD in economics from the George Washington University and a Masters in Finance from the London Business School.Talking Heads Macro is one of the leading economics consulting firms, advising all of the top Macro Hedge Funds in the world.  They specialize in structural macro-economic analysis uncovering global trends, with an emphasis on emerging markets.Support This Channel on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinancePatricks' Books:Statistics for Traders:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Financial Derivatives:  https://amzn.to/3kwsPSrCorporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Visit our website: www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyleFind Patrick on YouTube at https://www.youtube.com/c/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceSupport the show (https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance)

Co-hosts: Larry Bernstein and Rick Banks. Guests include Charles Goodhart, Manoj Pradhan, Alan Dershowitz, Andrea Kramer, Laurie Goodman, and Amnon Levy.

Find out more on our website: https://bit.ly/3qBlsxM The integration of China and the improvements in the workforce among the advanced economies produced a demographic ‘sweet spot' that led to falling inflation and interest rates, steady growth and rising asset prices – an era that Mervyn King labelled the NICE (No Inflation Constant Expansion) years. The bad news was that debt and inequality within the advanced economies rose, but even there, global inequality fell as emerging economies benefited from globalisation. That sweet spot is now turning sour. Saddled with even more debt because of the pandemic, and unable to lift growth at all and productivity by much, the advanced economies will have little choice but pursue inflation. If demography provides a ‘real' explanation for why inflation will rise, the recent dramatic increase in monetary aggregates ensures that inflation will rise within a year of the vaccination of our populations. Central banks and markets will initially welcome higher inflation, but soon despair at their inability to control it. Of one thing we are sure, the future of ageing societies will be nothing like the past. Speakers: Manoj Pradhan is the founder of Talking Heads Macroeconomics, an independent research advisory for global macroeconomics. He was most recently Managing Director at Morgan Stanley. Prior to that, he served on the faculty of the George Washington University and the State University of New York. While at Morgan Stanley, Manoj worked on quantitative macroeconomics, emerging markets and global economics. He has a Ph.D. in economics from George Washington University and a masters in finance from the London Business School. Charles Goodhart's career has alternated between academia (Cambridge, 1963-65; LSE, 1967/68; again 1985-date), and work in the official sector, mostly in the Bank of England (Department of Economic Affairs, 1965/66; Bank of England, 1968-85; Monetary Policy Committee, 1997-2000). He has been a specialist monetary economist, focussing on policy issues and on financial regulation, and has written more books and articles on these subjects than any sane person would want to read.

In this episode of The Sound of Economics, we invite Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan to talk about their most recent book: 'The Great Demographic Reversal'. They argue that trends in demography and globalisation, especially the stunning rise of China combining both, have greatly weakened labour bargaining power and led to subsequent disinflation, inequality and falling interest rates. But just as these demographic and globalisation trends are now reversing, labour bargaining power will rise again, bringing with it more inflation, less inequality and rising interest rates. The coronavirus pandemic will only accelerate this reversal.Bruegel scholars Maria Demertzis and Guntram Wolff join the authors for a conversation on ageing societies, waning inequality, as well as an inflation revival.

Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan tackle an issue perplexing policymakers and investors: if, and when, price pressures will rise. The authors of “The Great Demographic Reversal” discuss ageing societies, emerging economies, and why the world won't follow in Japan's footsteps. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Charles Goodhart, professor emeritus of the financial markets group at the London School of Economics, and Manoj Pradhan, founder of the research firm Talking Heads Macro, talk to Rob about their just released book, The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival