Podcasts about kondratieff

In this podcast Ron William of RW Advisory discusses the cyclical trends and other factors that will be having an impact on the global financial markets in 2025 and beyond. Ron assesses the investment implications for the currency, bond, equity and commodity markets. In doing so, he highlights some key non-consensus views. In the currency markets, Ron points out the key support levels for the US dollar trade weighted index (DXY) and discusses the outlook for the dollar's main cross rates with the euro, sterling and the Japanese yen. In the bond markets, Ron discusses the potential for US and UK interest rates to experience a prolonged “higher-for-longer” period, which would rhyme with the pattern in the 1970s. He then discusses the upside potential and asymmetric cyclical downside risks in the US, UK and other key stock markets. Ron concludes with an assessment of the prospects for gold and some of the other important commodities with reference to the longer run Kondratieff wave and the shorter cyclical trends, including those influencing the main cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin.

Bienvenidos a un nuevo episodio, un nuevo xDEBATE.AI donde hablamos de...

Bienvenidos a un nuevo episodio, un nuevo xDEBATE.AI donde hablamos de...

In episode 45 Mike is joined by researcher and investigative journalist Johnny Vedmore to discuss technology cycles and the lost art of online research. In part one they consider just how close we really are to the techno-dystopian future promised by the WEF and their ilk at every possible opportunity, including looking at how the Kondratieff and solar cycles all point to decline and war, rather then growth. Or put another way, exactly what we are seeing take place across the world right this moment. As part of this discussion they get into the origins of Bitcoin and consider why people are so afraid of hearing ideas that challenge the narratives the cling too. This then sets up part 2, where Mike and Johnny discuss some of the challenges of enacting independent research, particularly today when much of the internet is being censored and scrubbed. They offer listeners some insider tips and tricks they utilize in order to get around the algos and find what is believed to be lost. So join us in episode 45 to reflect on what comes next and learn some practical skills that will enable you to become your own detective, capable of finding the truth admist a sea of lies and disinformation....or something close. EPISODE LINKS: PART 2 FOR MEMBERS: www.parallelmike.com UPCOMING GROUP COACHING INFORMATION VIDEO: https://youtu.be/psMHPQhuwcA MIKE'S INVESTING NEWSLETTER: www.patreon.com/parallelsystems ROKFIN: www.rokfin.com/parallelsystems JOHNNY'S WEBSITE: https://newspaste.com/ YOUTUBE: https://www.youtube.com/@NEWSPASTEHQ PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/JohnnyVedmore/ 

Die Energiekrise bestimmt unseren Alltag, Künstliche Intelligenz verunsichert uns und der Wirtschaftsstandort Deutschland wackelt. Wie sieht also unsere Zukunft aus? Selten haben wir uns so sehr eine Glaskugel herbeigewünscht. Doch wird es wirklich so ungemütlich, wie es gerade den Anschein macht? Oder sehen wir vor lauter Sorgen, die Chancen gar nicht mehr? Die Antworten darauf liefert uns ein faszinierender Gast - ganz ohne Glaskugel: Zukunftsforscher und Wissenschaftsjournalist Erik Händeler. Er blickt optimistisch in die Zukunft. Seine Hoffnung ruht auf den Kondratieff-Zyklen und er ist sich sicher: Die Energiekrise werden wir meistern. Und auch die Angst vor einer allmächtigen Künstlichen Intelligenz ist unbegründet. Woher er seinen Optimismus nimmt? Das erläutert er im Gespräch mit Georgiy Michailov, Managing Partner bei Struktur Management Partner. Die beiden diskutieren über die Bedeutung und die Auswirkungen von Kondratieff-Zyklen und warum unsere immer schlechter werdende Gesundheit zu unserem größten Problem wird. Das und mehr hören Sie in diesem Podcast.

Tom welcomes back global forecaster and author David Murrin. David believes there is a risk of significant conflict in the Asian region including Korea and Taiwan. China is gaining knowledge of war and the usefulness of drone technology. The West is essentially at war with Russia, but the level of collective delusion from Western leaders is concerning. The United States has been in decline since the beginning of this century. We're seeing more liberal policies, and we're seeing things unravel socially and politically. David discusses how China has shifted policy to become independent from the West. The consequences could be severe because the West is far behind in manufacturing. China is trying to become a consumer nation, and currently, they are using excess manufacturing capacity for consumer goods and weapons. David explains the differences between lateral and linear ways of thinking. We've had an abundance of linear thinkers who is less flexible but useful in times of stability. The truth is the West is declining because of this linear takeover of thought. What is needed today is greater understanding. The West's institutions are dominated by linear thinkers whereas China is thinking laterally. Britain is the only country that has a chance of becoming more lateral soon. The world of finance is dominated by linear thinkers, and we see how that approach is working with inflation. Kondratieff cycles are composed of 52-year cycles that move from peak to bottom over 26 years. This cycle started around 2000, and he believes a collapse in demand is imminent . Equities will be chewed up, and the next phase will be more inflation and higher commodities. There will be a pause with inflation followed by another surge. He believes hyperinflation is in the cards. Whatever has worked for the past twenty years is unlikely to do so in an era of money printing. He believes the dollar will sell off and enter a final declining cycle. The dollar is going to lose favor against the Euro in a profound way as capital flees. There are numerous problems with commodities and a lack of capital investment in the sector. Europe needs to do far more to manage its energy resources. They haven't taken a strategic view of energy, and now they face the consequences. We're looking at a collapse of a magnitude that is hard to comprehend as a hundred years of policies correct. He explains the differences between the debts of the United States and China. The U.S. is far more vulnerable than China as China has invested in actual production capacity. Lastly, he explains the psychology of markets and the importance of price. Investors need to analyze both their successes and failures because they may have just gotten lucky. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:19 - American Hegemony4:56 - Eastern Planning7:14 - Economic Consequences10:36 - Lateral Vs. Linear15:47 - Kondratieff Cycles21:18 - Alpha & Beta Models25:24 - Dollar Outflows & Rates29:42 - Resource Underinvestment31:26 - Doomsday Bubble34:45 - Debt Jubilee?40:00 - Commodities & Inflation41:24 - China Vs. U.S. Debt43:25 - Protecting Yourself44:50 - Market Psychology50:33 - Thinking Clearly53:05 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode David's assessment of the risks from China and their increasing geopolitical and militaristic influence.Types of thinking and why the West is dominated by linear thought.Kondratieff waves and why the dollar is in for another leg down.Price and the major flaws with fundamentals. Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/GlobalForecastrWebsite: https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/ David Murrin began his unique career in the oil exploration business amongst the jungles of Papua New Guinea and the southwestern Pacific islands. There, he engaged with the numerous tribes of the Sepik River, exploring the mineral composition of the region. Before the age of adventure tourism, this region was highly dangerous,

Tom welcomes Macroeconomist Henrik Zeberg back to the show. Henrik is seeing a blow-off top coming which will unfold over mid-summer. This will be followed by a deflationary bust which will take everything down. We're going to see devastating stagflation coming later. Trades are based on human emotion, and the algos also look for these patterns. Henrik discusses where we are at based on Elliot Wave theory. It's indicating a mega deflationary bust coming soon. The Fed will accelerate the bust because they will hike rates too quickly. The inflationary spike we have had will reverse. Kondratieff winters normally come with conflict and Henrik shares a cycle chart that demonstrates this phase. Winters are normally deflationary and come with periods of high unemployment, pension problems, currency death, and trade wars. Many of these effects are still coming. The world is trying to squeeze the last bit of growth out of the economic system. Henrik explains where he thinks the dollar will head from here and why the long-term trend will continue to be lower. We could reach the 116 area, and then we will see the decline. Nothing moves in a straight line. He believes we are in a correction phase of the bull marketm and this gives room for a blow-off and crash later this year. We need five waves and he can only count four on the current charts. Volatility has been declining which indicates we are not yet in a crash. He shows the evidence for why we are not yet in a crash. Market liquidity will be vital for a blow-off top, and China has recently begun stimulus. It will be risk-on driven, and we could see one further run in stocks and crypto. Henrik discusses what assets he considers safe in the coming correction. The Fed will intervene once again, and they will attempt to pump up the bubbles again. That's when he will be long gold and silver miners. In the meantime, he expects a significant correction in gold. Lastly, he discusses Russia and its effects on the dollar and why the world needs a new currency system, perhaps based on blockchain. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:36 - Markets Overview4:40 - Algos & H.F. Trading11:16 - Kondratieff Winter18:26 - The Dollar23:34 - Blow-Off Top Hypothesis25:02 - Correction Evidence31:00 - Inflation & Consumption35:50 - Blow Off Drivers38:33 - Safe Havens & Gold47:32 - Energy & Deflation50:12 - Dollar & Russia55:28 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode His thesis for a blow-off top and why so far we are in correction not a crash.Kondratieff Winter Cycle and Elliot Wave theory.His picks for safe-haven assets in the coming bust. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/HenrikZebergWebsite: https://www.thezebergreport.com/ Henrik Zeberg is a Macroeconomist (M.Sc. Econ) from the University of Copenhagen. He is a Business Cycles student, Elliott Wave practitioner, and Chartist. You can find out more about his newsletter on his Website.

Tom welcomes David Murrin to the show. David discusses his five model of empire and how he was able to predict that Russia would invade Ukraine. Western governments have pushed all the adaptive people. The United States is now in the fifth stage of decline. We live in a watershed time of transition of power and we're in a Kondratieff winter. Nation-states fight over resources and these are the main drivers of past wars. Russia tried to return to the collective western fold but has been largely rejected. David discusses the cycles that drove the cold war and the inflation during the 70s. Excessive money printing and a reduction in productivity are creating this decline. Structures are weakening in the West and our leadership is lacking. A series of disastrous Presidents have only exacerbated the problems. This decade is going to see a huge shift in commodity markets. Putin is not a mad man. Anyone that believes this is failing to understand him. There is nothing illogical about the man. Putin doesn't play poker he follows thru on his statements. Huge gas resources were found in Ukraine in 2012. This is a reason why the West became directly involved in the country. This energy competition is not acceptable to Putin and he already seized significant gas resources off the coast of Crimea. Russia's weapon systems are designed to completely thwart the West's nuclear defenses. Putin has very carefully calculated his war to completely collapse Ukraine's will to fight. His use of nuclear leverage completely threatens other European nations. Once Ukraine falls it's highly likely that Taiwan and South Korea will suffer the same fate. Should Putin fail we could see a pro-western government in Russia. Should that happen China would lose its source of resources. China's nuclear deterrent is limited but when allied to Russia it's much stronger. The longer we wait the stronger the bonds will become between China and Russia. Sanctions aren't going to hurt Russia as the West will experience a big energy shock. He believes in the importance of reducing CO2, adopting green energy, and most importantly making use of nuclear and thorium power solutions. We're now in the bubble of all bubbles and entering decline. Bubbles have created the illusion of successful markets and those in charge can't see the magnitude of what is coming. The dollar will lose another 30 percent in purchasing power as a result of hegemonic power decline. This is similar to what Britain experienced around 1914. Precious metals will be the way to hedge against the coming market risks. This combined with mining stocks has enormous potential to outperform this inflationary cycle. Lastly, he discusses potential price targets for precious metals and why they will likely be astounding. There just isn't enough metal to go around and just imagine what happens when inflation is two or three times higher than today. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:04 - Predicting Invasion16:30 - NATO and Conflict?23:57 - Europe and Energy25:48 - China & Russia29:04 - Russia & Commodities31:16 - Global Energy Shocks35:35 - Doomsday Bubble38:24 - Dollar Outcome40:44 - West Outlook45:33 - Hedging The Risks49:15 - Sector Rotation?50:35 - Crypto Market Thoughts52:05 - Metal Price Targets53:35 - Gold Standard & Putin58:49 - China Gold Reserves59:38 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Putin's strategy for breaking NATO the Wests problems of dealing with nuclear blackmail.Why the West is in decline and his thoughts on the dollar.Importance of nuclear and reducing carbon.Hedging the coming inflationary risks with precious metals and mining equities. Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/GlobalForecastrWebsite: https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/ David Murrin began his unique career in the oil exploration business amongst the jungles of Papua New Guinea and the southwestern Pacific islands. There, he engaged with the numerous tribes of the Sepi...

Heute spreche ich mit Dominik Fecht. Er ist unabhängiger Finanzmentor. Dich erwartet ein Gespräch über seine eigene Berufsgeschichte, seine Schritte in der Selbstentwicklung, Fallstricke der Selbständigkeit und Wege der Unterstützung, über den Umgang mit Behörden und die drei besten Sätze um von jedem Amt das zu bekommen, das Du brauchst. Und wir sprechen sehr tiefgehend über menschliche Energien und männliche und weibliche Kraft.

Ich habe ja so gar keine Ahnung von Volkswirtschaft und finde die VWL teilweise etwas langweilig, aber das Konzept der "Langen Wellen" von Nikolai Kondratjew zog mich bereits vor mehreren Jahren in den Bann. Warum dieser kleine volkswirtschaftliche Exkurs wichtig für Führungskräfte, Selbständige und Unternehmer ist hört Ihr in dieser Episode. Und auch ein Franke kommt darin vor. Oder auch nicht.

Erik Händeler weist in seinem Vortrag hin auf die hohe Bedeutung der Kommunikation für unsere moderne Gesellschaft und der darin verborgenen Chance für das Evangelium

No doubt we are witnesses to a huge industry disruption which is caused by the digital transformation. It affects not only the IT world, but a lot of innovative industries, changing the world we know as we speak. But how to predict what impact will it have and how to embed it in the economics? Our guest will tell us more about the economic perspective of the disruption and how it is reflected in the Kondratieff Wave theory. It is especially interesting to investors and governments since it helps them to understand how periods of uncertainty or crisis relate to long-term economic and social trends. According to the theory, since XVIII c. we have experienced 5 Kondratieff cycles and it seems that COVID 19 is driving us towards the 6th Kondratieff very quickly.

While many expect global inflation, Elmer Hogervorst believes that the coming sovereign debt crisis will be driven by inflation.The author of Dutch best-seller "Deflatie in aantocht" (Deflation in sight) and "Geld, goud en zilver" (Money, gold and silver) explains how we're heading into a global depression through the lens of the Kondratieff wave theory, money suppy, currency devaluation, demography and its impact on asset classes.›› About Elmer HogervorstElmer Hogervorst (1965) studied Dutch law and tax law in Amsterdam and Leiden. Since 1990 he has worked at large tax consultancies, where he was part of a specialist team that advises wealthy individuals. Elmer has been assisting prize winners in the State Lottery and other wealthy individuals since 2000. Together with Eric Mecking he wrote the book 'Geld, goud enilver ' (2nd edition) and 'Deflation in sight' (9th edition). He is a regular guest at BNR Beurswatch to give his views on the financial markets and gold and silver in particular. ›› Order the books"Geld, goud en zilver": https://www.bol.com/nl/p/geld-goud-en-zilver/1001004011833450/?referrer=socialshare_pdp_www"Deflatie in aantocht": https://www.bol.com/nl/p/deflatie-in-aantocht/9200000036272512/?referrer=socialshare_pdp_www›› GoldRepublic PodcastA weekly podcast inviting guests with valuable insights into the emergence of a new monetary system through the lens of precious metals, cryptocurrencies and other financial instruments presented by Bart Brands, Precious Metals Specialist and Alexej Jordanov, Content Architect at GoldRepublic.›› Subscribe to the podcast- Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4AxNbMR2rGqsF5hLh6ODxv- iTunes:https://podcasts.apple.com/nl/podcast/goldrepublic-podcast-covering-emergence-new-monetary/id1547812811- YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwO3q9CbpwocEjslvD8y5qgNeed more information about GoldRepublic.com?Visit us on our website: https://bit.ly/38p4qthWant to open directly an account?Click on this link: https://bit.ly/38stf7p#deflation #depression #debt

Tom welcomes Macroeconomist Henrik Zeberg back to the show. Henrik discusses where we are in the winter season of the Kondratieff cycle and what comes next. He believes we are approaching the final deflationary phase, which will have severe consequences. He says, "we can only stimulate for only so long, and the lockdowns will be one of the reasons why we will see this deflationary bust." Excessive debt results in a reduction in consumption, which will pressure growth. Central banks believe that they can stimulate the business cycle and incentivize people to take on more debt. However, this will only end up exacerbating the problem. The real economy is not better. The Fed has created a bubble in assets, but money velocity has continued to collapse. Commodities have declined since 2009 and have recovered somewhat, but he believes they will head down in a final bust as the dollar roars back, crushing growth globally. Henrik believes big asset moves like Bitcoin and equities are being driven by the declining dollar and a spike in bond yields. Expect a liquidity crunch, margin calls, and sharp declines in gold, silver, and equities. He argues that all these asset bubbles will burst and that bursting is always deflationary. Money velocity must pickup to get inflation, and we won't see that until after the next major panic. Commodities are not at their structural bottoms yet, and he provides some rather startling price targets. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:46 - Winter is here.6:10 - Fed Dangers8:10 - Liquidity & Timing12:20 - Commodity Risk13:37 - Stock Market Chart17:46 - Inflation & Velocity19:49 - Velocity Drivers22:59 - Yield Curve25:27 - Silver & Gold27:53 - Timing29:33 - Playing the Bottom33:38 - Bitcoin Predictions36:44 - Dollar Strength37:48 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode• Kondratieff cycles and a deflationary bust.• Why asset bubbles must pop.• Yields and US dollar to strengthen.• Price targets for commodities and Bitcoin. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/HenrikZebergWebsite: https://www.thezebergreport.com/ Henrik Zeberg is a Macroeconomist (M.Sc. Econ) from the University of Copenhagen. He is a Business Cycles student, Elliott Wave practitioner, and Chartist. You can find out more about his newsletter on his Website.

Entry Fees:1) Cost to play the game - we usually see this as the upfront cost - the cost of entry associated with buying a stock, buying a franchise or investing in a futures index.2) Cost to play the game well - we think of these costs as hidden costs, long term costs and the cost of draw downs or losses.3) Understanding the market cycles - every market has a rhythm as the people investing in them have rhythms.  Investors are responsible for the majority of the cycles as cycles are created by human nature.  Macro cycles or eras revolve around 100 year snapshots of the market.  25 year rhythms or "turnings" respond to more generational cues (The Fourth Turning, Strauss and Howe)Stephen Covey - "Start with the end in mind"John Fedro - mobilehomeinvesting.netK-cycles  - Russian economist, Kondratiev or Kondratieff that first developed language around the long term cycles of markets.Garrett Gunderson - "Risk is in the investor"

Op uitnodiging van Fondsnieuws trapt van Duijn af in de podcast-serie This Time is Really  Different over de overeenkomsten, de verschillen en de gevolgen van de crises van 2008 en 2020. We zijn volgens van Duijn met ingang van 2020 beland in de neergaande fase van de vijfde Kondratieff-golf, die van de digitalisering, die startte rond 1992.

Im Podcast werden die 5 Zyklen die nach ihm benannt sind beschrieben und ein Ausblick in den 6. Zyklus gegeben. Der Aktualitätscharakter ist eindeutig.

Welcome to Finance and Fury, the Furious Friday Edition Today is a follow on from Last FF ep – on K waves – if haven’t listened – worthwhile to go check Today – is the cycle relevant today with central banks – and go through the most recent cycle – meant to start in 1949 and end this year First - Summary from last week – K-wave – summarises the long term cycles of economies in capitalist countries - Each cycle has it sub-cycles – which are dubbed as seasons as broken down into four sub-cycles – Each K wave is a 60 year cycle (+/- a few years here or there) – then the internal phases that are characterized as seasons: spring, summer, autumn, and winter: Spring: Increase in productivity, along with inflation, signifying an economic boom Summer: Increase in the general affluence level leads to changing attitudes toward work that results in a deceleration of economic growth Autumn: Stagnating economic conditions give rise to a deflationary growth spiral that gives rise to isolationist policies, further curtailing growth prospects Winter: Economy in the throes of a debilitating depression that tears the social fabric of society, as the gulf between the dwindling number of "haves" and the expanding number of "have-nots" increases dramatically Key indicators – In a K Wave theory – the two most common indicators are inflation, interest rates and asset prices – back in Nicolai’s time – these moved freely – but not anymore Inflation – it is targeted by central banks and the measurements are skewed Data being skewed – not the cost of living but the basket of goods selected What makes up the good? I break it down into two – Essentials and discretionary Look at the prices of the two – One has been going up massively whilst the other is declining – goes which? Essential – food, health care, petrol, housing, education – all up massively – over CPI increase Discretionary – TVs, clothes, computers – stuff you buy off Amazon – going down massively Targets – money is introduced into the economy to create inflation – but lowering interest rates - Interest rates – it is controlled not on supply and demand factors – but on the determination of monetary authorities Asset prices – Shares, property and commodities – depending on the stage go through corrections, gains or stagnation Let's look at each of these through the cycles – see if they line up  Spring – 1950-1966 – longest period in cycle – around 25 years Inflation – starts to rise – due to consumption starting to increase Australia saw a spike in inflation in 1950 – went to almost 25% - but then dropped heavily to almost 0%- inflation used to be more volatile before being targeted – but by 1966 was back to about 5% Interest rates – normally fairly flat initially – towards end of cycle start to increase Interest rates were 5% then went to 5.5% but averaged around 5% for the whole time – This is a large factor which contributed to inflation back then – but the spike was likely due to price increases due to limited supply coming out of WW2 Shares – Start to rise as well in the spring time – and they slowly did - Average annual ASX return of 12.52% Had 4 negative years – nothing major – 3%, two 7% and one 12% Property – also is meant to increase – it did – 50s to 66 saw mild increases at average of wage earnings Summer – 1967-1981 – around 5 to 10 years Inflation – quickly rising inflation - towards the end meant to see double digit levels if inflation From 67 rose from about 5% to 15% by 1976 - and stayed around the 10% margin until early 1980s Interest rates – are rising to combat inflation – normally soaring Credit growth builds heavily – whilst interest rates increase – inflation also goes up – so real debt levels isn’t so bad Rates went from 5.38% in 2967 to 7.25% in 1970 – then to 10% by 1974 – then to 13% by 1981 Shares- The share markets normally go through a bit of a correction as well or just make no progress and stagnate Average annual ASX return of 17% Had the corrections mid and end of cycle – 73 and 74 lost 23% and 27% respectively Then in 1981 and 1982 at end of cycle lost 13% and 14% back to back - Property – From 67 to 75 saw some decent increases – prices went from $160k to $220k – 37% gain in about 8 years – but then stagnated and went down slightly until 80s Autumn – 1982 -2000 – around 7 to 10 years – this is the period when things start getting a little out of sync Inflation – starts to drop – which it did – trended down from 1981 till the RBA and other central banks set inflation targeting in early 90s – Went from about 8% to close to zero with the implementation of inflation rate targeting in 1993 Inflation did spike towards 2000 – but only to about 5% - Interest rates – falling heavily – which they did Creates a credit boom which creates a false plateau of prosperity that ends in a speculative bubble Rates kept rising though – 1982 were 13.5% and went up to 17% by 1990 – But dropped after this – from 1990 to 1992 – went from 17% to 10% - then down to 7% in 2000 Shares – market prices rise heavily to a peak and crash Average annual ASX return of 16% Rose in 1983, 85, 86 by 67%, 44% and 52% respectively Property – meant to increase as well and started massively in the mid 90s – went down between 1980 and 1987 Bonds – also rise a lot – which they did slightly – but not much Winter – 2000 – 2015 or 2020 depending on measurements – meant to be 3-year collapse and 15 year reset Inflation – Prices start to fall – actually went up – from 2000 to 2005 went from 2.5% to 5% - so not the expected result But since then inflation is down – despite monetary policies best efforts Interest rates – normally are meant to slowly increase – however – 2000s then has been trending down – and no massive signs of increasing Cash is the best investment normally in winter – but the interest rates dropping has created a situation where it really isn’t a good option – guarantees a real negative return over the medium term Shares – see a banking crisis – saw that in 2008 - Average annual ASX return has been about 8.91% since 2000 – Has been in winter – but have had a limited ability to rebound through fundamentals Property prices are meant to fall off or stagnate – what did we see – from 2000 the mother of all property booms – Nothing to do with the cycle – but credit growth – borrowings and interest rates falling Best investments are cash and gold – as shares and bonds (or debt) are in free fall for the first few years – but then go nowhere for a while But over the past few years – International shares were one of the best investments – however gold and precious metals has been going well The breakthrough for this phase comes from confidence – it comes from the overall market sentiment   So is this wave still true? Yes - I believe so – but with different time spans - I personally think that waves still exist – but they have been subverted by intervention of monetary policy – The issues But interest rates don’t move freely anymore – inflation doesn’t move freely anymore – Debt levels also no longer have a market response – people respond in market manners to them (borrowing more when rates are low) K wave was on point up until the winter cycle – remember – Central banks – RBA started controlling interest rates in an effect to get inflation in mid 90s – after which property and share boomed   Implications for 2020 and Beyond Based on Professor Thompson's analysis, long K cycles have nearly a thousand years of supporting evidence. If we accept the fact that most winters in K cycles last 20 years this would indicate that we should be coming out of the Kondratieff winter that commenced in the year 2000 soon – but does it feel like it? First – look at the approximations of this theory - Based around the analysis and probability - we should be moving from a "recession" to a "depression" phase in the cycle about the year 2013 and it should last until approximately 2017-2020 – but there has been no economic recession or depression on the GDP measure – as it has been silent – GDP can be manipulated by changing currency (for exports) or government spending – or even adjusting potential GDP – look at a graph – used to have big swings of up 6% down to -1% - but average much larger – then since 2000s – hasn’t moved above 2% in real terms – if anything trending towards 0% Looking around in the economy – may seem like it there is a recession talking to the average business owner – but looking at the share market and bond price performance – not so much Why? What K missed and what Thompson negated was the immense power over markets that the Fed and Central banks would play – but it is only masking the issue with high asset prices doesn’t mean a booming economy – why in the winter period – when shares and property are meant to stagnate – the real growth has still been increasing Characteristics of Winter – Share and debt markets collapsing – Only shares dropped in 2008/09 – while bonds had good year – but since they have both been going up Massive debt defaults – haven’t materialised due to record low-interest rates for prolonged periods of time If rates go up – may see these two materialise But like all cycles, K wave analysis is more "descriptive than prescriptive" - it does help to provide insight into our current economic condition – that what rise must fall – the longer the delay is manipulated through low cost of money and printing to put money into assets occurs – the worse the winter can be Over the winter cycle - the FED and the ECB, instead of prolonging the agony through trillion of credit expansion, should have let winter happen = liberate the "international market" and let it intelligently and efficiently do what it has done 18 times before – not a smooth ride, but even with central banking intervention – not smooth either World bankers if they understood how cycles work instead of trying to control them - may comprehend and deal with the crisis – but letting it happen – instead they panicked and mis-diagnosed it as a credit/monetary problem – turning it into a credit/monetary problem since the 1980s But the monetary and government policies of increasing legislation to reduce free-market abilities and technological innovation have prolonged the winter   What if we were never allowed to go into winter? The crash of 2008 wasn’t as bad as it needed to be – the fire of the market didn’t clean out the failing companies (banks) but made them stronger The share market collapsed in value by a lot – but the problems were masked through bailouts But markets so have the ability to recover – they just need to be let to do their thing – but not under the guise of regulations or monetary policy – but peoples innovation and ingenuity But the Major point – K Wave theories are only prevalent in Capitalist economies - would go further and say a free market - Where the market has adjustments based around incentives - But since 1990s – we don’t like in a free market economy when inflation is set (Goodhart’s law) and the interest rates are controlled - Puts a kink in the theory Thanks for listening! Australian Interest rates - https://www.loansense.com.au/historical-rates.html ASX Returns –  https://topforeignstocks.com/2017/06/14/the-historical-average-annual-returns-of-australian-stock-market-since-1900/ Thank you for listening to today's episode. If you want to get in contact you can do so here: http://financeandfury.com.au/contact/  

Welcome to Finance and Fury, The Furious Friday Edition With the current state of the markets – and the focus only on today's news and short-term cycles - In this episode – we will be looking at economies and markets in relation to Waves and cycles in a complex system – Like seasons in weather – markets have cycles – like weather though, predicting it is not the most accurate – To do this though we will have a look at what is known as a Kondratieff Wave - And do they still have applications to modern financial markets almost 100 years later  Understanding Kondratieff Waves A Kondratieff Wave is a long-term economic cycle believed to be born out of technological innovation - results in a long period of prosperity, then a lull, then a decline Theory was founded by Nikolai D. Kondratieff - a communist Russia-era economist who noticed agricultural commodity and copper prices experienced long-term cycles – focused on other economic cycles involved which have periods of evolution and self-correction. With every rise comes a fall – due to the creative destruction element before the take-off of technology In 1926 - Kondratieff published a study called Long Waves in Economic Life which first looked at these periods Kondratieff noted that capitalist economies have long waves of boom and bust, that he described similar to the seasons in a year. Kondratieff's analysis described how international capitalism had gone through many "great depressions" and as such were a normal part of the international mercantile credit system - The long term business cycles that he identified through his research are also called "K" waves. Long term means long term – not a few years like a business cycle - but 60 years – around 70% of the average life span – so most of us may see one and a half of these cycles play out Today - Kondratieff Waves are relegated to a branch of economics called "heterodox economics," in that it does not conform to the widely accepted, orthodox theories espoused by economists. Provides an alternative approach to mainstream economics that can help explain economic phenomenon that is ignored by equilibrium models – or traditional economics – does do by embedding social and historical factors into analysis – incorporates behavioural economics of both individuals and societies into market equilibriums over long timeframes. Mainstream economists who are currently implementing policy – essentially ruling the economic world should be presumably achieving full employment, constant GDP growth with near-perfect utilisation of resources – but also stay there - perhaps buffeted by mild external shocks – but in all their efforts they fail in the real world K waves faced a lot of hostility on the academic side – criticise equilibrium models of economics which is what academics are built on – Similar to the academic side - This theory was also not welcomed in Kondratieff's Russia - His views were not popular to communist officials, especially Josef Stalin, because they suggested that capitalist nations were not on an inevitable path to destruction but, rather, that they experienced ups and downs At the time – USA was going through the 1929 crash and the great depression of the 1930s – USSR was no better off but the propaganda machine (similar to NK today) couldn’t have the theory of that it was a temporary decline As a result, he ended up in a concentration camp in Siberia and was shot by a firing squad in 1938 So does this wave theory hold up today almost 100 year later? Start by looking at the identified patters - following Kondratieff Waves since the 18th century. The first resulted from the invention of the steam engine and ran from 1780 to 1830. The second cycle arose because of the steel industry and the spread of railroads and ran from 1830 to 1880. The third cycle resulted from electrification and innovation in the chemical industry and ran from 1880 to 1930. The fourth cycle was fuelled by autos and petrochemicals and lasted from 1930 to 1970. The fifth cycle was based on information technology and began in 1970 and ran through the present, though some economists believe we are at the start of a sixth wave that will be driven by biotechnology and healthcare. Modern day economic academics have started to pay attention to this – subject of "cyclical" phenomenon – essay from Professor W. Thompson of Indiana University – took a step back and looked at K waves – concluded that they have influenced world technological development since the 900's – that these developments commenced in 930AD in the Sung province of China - he propounds that since this date there have been 18 K waves lasting on average 60 years Most people are quite familiar with business cycles that tend to be denominated in terms of months to years – For example – typical business cycle goes - Sales are good, people are confident about the future, and unemployment is reduced. Then sales fall off, the immediate future seems gloomier, and unemployment increases. The Kondratieff wave is a longer version of economic fluctuation – built off the theory of technological innovation and subsequent diffusion at the world level - can also have some rather major implications for war, peace, and order in the world system through political instability What drives k-waves has been the subject of considerable analytical dispute. Arguments have been advanced that bestow main driver status on investment, profits, population growth, war, agricultural-industrial trade-offs, prices, and technological innovations Truth be told – who knows what really is the cause – however, the effects of these cycles are what is notable and what we will focus on Each cycle has it sub-cycles – which are dubbed as seasons as broken down into four sub-cycles - The K wave is a 60 year cycle (+/- a few years here or there) with internal phases that are sometimes characterised as seasons: spring, summer, autumn and winter: Spring: Increase in productivity, along with inflation, signifying an economic boom – 1949-1966 Spring (25 years) – Inflationary phase with rising stock prices and increased employment and wages. Phase: new factors of production emerge, creates good economic times, where consumption goes up – people spend more and there is rising inflation – it is the starting period of inflation Best assets are typically real estate and shares – but as this is the start of the new cycle – typically it means that these assets have just gone through a crash This stage is all about confidence turning around and picking up – and when confidence is high – everything booms Except bonds – due to inflation Summer: Increase in the general affluence level leads to changing attitudes toward work that results in a deceleration of economic growth – 1967-1981 Summer (5-10 years) – Stagflation phase with rising interest rates, rising debt and stock corrections. Imbalances lead to war – either economic or physical Interest rates normally rise which combats inflation – and the risking debts also get slowed down – The share markets normally go through a bit of a correction as well or just make no progress and stagnate – There can be a build up of capital goods as consumption starts to lower Hubristic 'peak' war followed by societal doubts and double-digit inflation – but commodities do well in the stage Autumn: Stagnating economic conditions give rise to a deflationary growth spiral that gives rise to isolationist policies, further curtailing growth prospects – 1982 - 2000 Autumn (7-10 years) – Deflation phase where falling interest rates lead to a plateau and stock prices increase sharply Inflation starts to drop to due consumption decreasing The financial fix of inflation leads to a credit boom which creates a false plateau of prosperity that ends in a speculative bubble In this phase due to falling interest rates – debts rise massively – this causes real estate to boom and for bond prices to rise – shares also do well before they have their peak and crash Winter: Economy in the throes of a debilitating depression that tears the social fabric of society, as the gulf between the dwindling number of "haves" and the expanding number of "have-nots" increases dramatically – 2000 – meant to be 2020 Winter (3 year collapse and 15 year readjustment) – Depression phase with stock and debt markets collapsing But commodity prices are increasing. Excess capacity worked off by massive debt repudiation (or debt default), commodity deflation & economic depression. Inevitably – a 'trough' breaks psychology of doom and things move back to the spring cycle Best investments are cash and gold – as shares and bonds (or debt) are in free fall for the first few years – but then go nowhere for a while  Implications for 2020 and Beyond Based on Professor Thompson's analysis, long K cycles have nearly a thousand years of supporting evidence. If we accept the fact that most winters in K cycles last 20 years this would indicate that we should be coming out of the Kondratieff winter that commenced in the year 2000 soon – but does it feel like it? – Gone on a bit long already and it is a deeper topic – so will cover the current cycle in closer detail next Friday Episode In sum, the Kondratieff wave appears to be highly pervasive and hence an important underlying function of the world system – think this is an interesting concept and deserves more recognition than it currently receives. In addition to technology being a major factor in K cycles, credit and banking also play a crucial role. This is due to the fact that new technology spurs growth, initiative, and risk-taking. This mindset encourages investment and lending, thus when the multiplier effect kicks in, economies expand rapidly. Moving the focus and analysis on more modern times – can be seen that periods of "K" expansion and contraction bring with them phases of bigger booms and busts. The picture is doubly exacerbated by increasingly more integrated world funding mechanisms which means these booms and busts are global rather than local and increasingly more political than economic. Also – the credit capacity of Central banks – in modern times they are on steroids compared to the constrictions placed under the gold standard The very fact that Central banks since the 90s have been trying to control inflation and the very cost of money may have broken this cycle- as far as following the timelines but not the patterns A Kondratieff Wave is a long-term economic cycle, indicated by periods of evolution and self-correction, brought about by technological innovation that results in a long period of prosperity. Thank you for listening to today's episode. If you want to get in contact you can do so here: http://financeandfury.com.au/contact/  

Was Joseph Schumpeter mit David und Gottfried #Eisermann zu tun hat, dürfte den Lesern des #Schumpeter-Bandes, an dem ich mitgewirkt habe, bekannt sein. Noch einmal zur Erinnerung: Schumpeter hat in seiner Bonner Zeit von 1925 bis 1932 eine beachtliche soziologische Lehr- und Vortragstätigkeit entfaltet. All das erforscht übrigens seit den 1990er Jahre der Berliner (!) Sozialwissenschaftler Ulrich Hedtke. Vielleicht lag es an seiner Schrift „Stalin oder Kondratieff. Endspiel oder Innovation? (Sowie:) Nikolai Kondratieff: Strittige Fragen der Weltwirtschaft und der Krise“, die Hedtke auf die Spur von Schumpeter gebracht hat. Ich würde mich jedenfalls sehr freuen über ein Live-Interview mit dem Schumpeter-Forscher in Berlin. In Bonn war es jedenfalls Gottfried Eisermann, der sich intensiv mit Schumpeter beschäftigte. Darauf machte mich dessen Sohn David Eisermann auf Facebook aufmerksam: „Im Nachhinein darf man ihn (also Schumpeter, gs) als Bonns ersten Soziologen bezeichnen. Einen Lehrstuhl für Soziologie hat es an der Bonner Universität damals nicht gegeben. Der wurde erst 1962 eingerichtet – zwölf Jahre, nachdem Schumpeter in den USA gestorben war. Mein Vater hatte ihm 1962 seine Bonner Antrittsvorlesung gewidmet. Aber die Zeit war damals für eine Wiederentdeckung oder Neubewertung Schumpeters noch nicht reif.“ Gottfried Eisermann bezeichnet Schumpeter als sozialwissenschaftlichen Spiritus rector der Bonner Alma Mater. Sein ganzes Werk sei von soziologischen Denkmitteln durchsetzt und unerlässlich von soziologischen Stützpfeilern getragen. „Diese Eigenschaften seines Werkes und seiner Person waren daher bereits unverkennbar ausgebildet, als er zum Wintersemester 1925/26 dem Ruf auf den Lehrstuhl von Dietzel an die Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität folgte, an der er während der Dauer seiner Zugehörigkeit regelmäßig Kollegs über ‚Gesellschaftslehre‘ hielt und dadurch zu seinem Teil der in jener Zeit umstrittenen Soziologie als Wissenschaft den Weg bahnte.“ Darüber sprechen David Eisermann und Gunnar Sohn.

Professor Carlota Perez has spent her career researching the profound impact technology has had on socio-economic development.  In this fascinating interview, we explore the two distinct phases of a technological revolution as outlined by Carlota: installation – or experimental early phase – and deployment (or “Golden Age”).  Carlota emphasizes the critical role governments play in this phase. By setting a clear and context-sensitive pathway for the transformation through new policies, regulations and taxes, the state can ensure a win-win outcome for both business and society.  Considering the trends from the four previous technological revolutions, Carlota compares the current socio-economic situation to the 1930s and suggests how we can move forward towards a sustainable golden age for our information revolution. Carlota Perez is a Venezuelan-British researcher and educator, currently affiliated to three universities in the UK ­– LSE, IIPP-UCL and SPRU (Sussex) – and to TalTech in Estonia.  She specializes in the relationship between technology and socio-economic development, with a focus on techno-economic paradigm shifts and the theory of great surges (a development of Schumpeter's work on Kondratieff waves). Her book, Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages, published in 2002, has had a profound impact on our understanding of how technology shapes our institutional, economic, and social development.   The post Episode 61: Interview with Carlota Perez, Centennial Professor of International Development at the London School of Economics appeared first on The Sustainability Agenda.

 „Als Psychologen glauben wir, dass sich die Identität der Menschen massiv verändert“, fasst Ines Imdahl vom Kölner rheingold salon die Folgen der technischen Revolution auf uns Menschen zusammen. Als mir ihre Einladung zum (bereits vergangenen) rheingold salon Kongress „Digital Me. Digital be“ ins Office flattert, beschließe ich sofort, Ines zum Thema Digitalisierung und Identität zu sprechen – und endlich kommt es nun dazu. Was wir in der 10. Episode des Digital You :Podcast besprechen: Warum wir in der Gesellschaft aktuell eine Identitätskrise der Menschen erleben und was Umbrüche in der Arbeitswelt dafür bedeuten Wie sich die junge Generation auf die aktuelle Situation des Unsicheren einstellt und was das mit dem Phänomen der Influencer verquickt ist Ines erläutert das „digitale Über-Ich“ und erläutert, warum aus ihrer Sicht Menschen aktuell tendenziell Verantwortung an digitale Plattformen und deren implementierter künstlicher Intelligenz (KI) abgeben Wie das Lustprinzip und die Zuwendung zu sozialen Medien einen Fluchtweg aus der Überforderung mit der Digitalisierung bieten Wie rheingold salon das Phänomen „Pröffentlichkeit“ definiert Und wir leuchten aus, wie Führungskräfte heute das Thema digitale Selbstdarstellung angehen und in die Souveränität kommen können, sich zielgerichtet in der vernetzten Welt zu bewegen und darzustellen Was habe ich zum Thema Identität herausgefunden? Die aktuell heftig geführte gesellschaftliche Diskussion über die digitale Transformation greifen direkt in die Identitätsbildung der Menschen ein und können diese überfordern. Bei Führungskräften geht es klar um Zielformulierung gepaart mit Wissensaufbau, um gut vernetzt zu leben, zu führen und dementsprechend zu kommunizieren.   Wichtiges Links zur Episode: Alle drei Jahre findet der rheingold salon Kongress statt, hier das Programm von 2018: http://www.rheingoldsalon-kongress.de/assets/deepdatacongress_programm.pdf Werbung auf der Coach, das erwähnte Buch von Ines Imdahl: https://www.amazon.de/Werbung-auf-Couch-M%C3%A4rchen-braucht/dp/3451329670/ref=asap_bc?ie=UTF8   Der sechste Kondratieff: https://www.kondratieff.net/der-sechste-kondratieff   Und ab dafür. Hier ist die Episode 10 des Digital You :Podcast zu finden (Termin der Aufzeichnung: 22. November):  ITUNES: Link zur Show: https://itunes.apple.com/de/podcast/digital-you/id1416607388?mt=2 SOUNDCLOUD https://soundcloud.com/kathrinkoehler/ SPOTIFY: Link zur Show: https://open.spotify.com/show/2rEhgfSjD6saQdp99sFkMs?si=QSSdFK5pRl6U5pIfbbdxzQ YOUTUBE: https://youtube.com/c/KathrinKoehler COMMUNITY – ich freue mich darauf, Dich in der Digital You Community zu treffen. Alle Podcast Hörer und Hörerinnen tauschen sich hier aus und erhalten Impulse zum Thema digitale Identität in der öffentlich zugänglichen Digital You Community bei LinkedIn. Über diesen Link erfolgt die Aufnahme: https://www.linkedin.com/groups/13627056/    

Erik Händeler ist unbequem – der Wirklichkeit zuliebe. Er hat es sich zum Ziel gesetzt, Aufklärungsarbeit zu leisten, und das was er über die Geschichte der Zukunft weiß, einem großen Publikum zugänglich zu machen. In diesem leidenschaftlichen Interview erfahren Sie: Warum es bei der Digitalisierung nie um Technik geht Wieso das Thema Religion, Weltanschauung und Wertvorstellung zurück in die öffentliche Debatte kommt Wieso wir eine andere Kultur des Streitens brauchen Die Geschichte der Zukunft, dafür steht Erik Händeler. Seit seinem Studium beschäftigt sich der erfolgreiche Buchautor und Zukunftsforscher mit der Kondratiefftheorie der langen Strukturzyklen. Damit bietet er einen anderen Blick auf die Entwicklung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft. Links: Website: http://www.erik-haendeler.de/  Die Bücher von Erik Händeler Himmel 4.0. https://amzn.to/2HcnW1M Die Geschichte der Zukunft. : https://amzn.to/2vsPpH3 Kondratieffs Gedankenwelt: https://amzn.to/2HcnDUu Mehr zum Thema Unternehmenszukunft: www.führungszirkel-bayern.de https://www.artvia.de/zukunftsentwicklung/unternehmenszukunft/ Wenn Sie auch zu Gast im Zukunftsbauer-Podcast sein wollen, oder Silvia in Ihren eigenen Podcast einladen wollen, dann freuen wir uns über Ihre Anfrage an: info@silvia-ziolkowski.de. Hier geht es zur Übersicht über alle bisherigen Podcastfolgen: Für iTunes-User: https://itunes.apple.com/de/podcast/bau-dir-deine-zukunft/id1343157951?l=de Für alle anderen: http://artvia.libsyn.com/ Auf Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLoXwOevp1qHJJqyAnkvpztX_IWvBeVriN Ihnen hat diese Folge gefallen und Sie haben weiterhin Lust auf interessante Interviews mit spannenden Experten und zukunftsrelevanten Content, dann freuen wir uns über eine Bewertung oder einen Kommentar auf iTunes. Wir freuen uns auf Ihr Feedback. Mit Ihrer Einschätzung helfen Sie uns, unseren Podcast zu verbessern und weiter auf Ihre Wünsche anzupassen. Vielen Dank fürs Zuhören und für Ihre Unterstützung! Hier können Sie den Podcast abonnieren und rezensieren! https://itunes.apple.com/de/podcast/bau-dir-deine-zukunft/id1343157951?l=de www.silvia-ziolkowski.de Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FutureZooming/  

https://improvisations.fr/wp-content/uploads/20171004reforme.mp3   Régulièrement, les entreprises se réforment : les comités qu'on avait élargis sont resserrés ; les directions qu'on avait adoubées sont supprimées ; celles qu'on avait un moment laissées dans l'ombre sortent des oubliettes ; il est décidé de réorganiser les implantations régionales d'une certaine façon,  de privilégier les petites structures agiles ou de déployer de grands plateaux en open space, de regrouper les salariés du siège ou au contraire de les disséminer - bref d'entreprendre des réorganisations qui, pendant quelques mois, agitent les conversations autour des machines à café. Puis les années passent, et une nouvelle réforme arrive, qui vise le plus souvent à défaire l'organisation que la précédente réforme avait mise en place. On croit d'abord que cette nouvelle réforme vient sanctionner l'échec de la précédente, qu'elle vise à corriger le cap en tirant les leçons du passé et en tentant d'améliorer les choses ; puis le temps et la multiplication des réformes vécues de l'intérieur aidant, on se rend compte que pas du tout : on ne réforme pas l'organisation pour faire mieux ; on réforme pour réformer, c'est-à-dire pour introduire de l'instabilité et du mouvement dans ce qui, sinon, perdrait toute vigueur pour ne plus vivre - et bientôt mourir - que de son inertie. Les grandes organisations  - c'est une chose extraordinaire à découvrir - connaissent des cycles analogues à ceux que Juglar et Kondratieff ont défini pour l'économie. Elles ont cette respiration, ce rythme quasi biologique des saisons et des âges qui fait qu'à la jeunesse succède la maturité, et que celle-ci est ensuite suivie d'une sorte de dégénerescence durant laquelle les choses s'effilochent, perdent sens et se mettent à fonctionner comme de pures mécaniques, ayant perdu l'esprit qui, à leur naissance, les insufflait et les inspirait.  Et telle structure, dont le rôle, à sa création, était clair et compris par tous, se détache progressivement d'elle-même, devenant une machinerie bureaucratique dont plus personne ne sait à quoi, au bout du compte, elle sert. Elle vit encore mais a perdu son âme. Le temps est alors venu de tout bousculer, de tout remettre à plat et de bâtir une nouvelle structure qui aura pendant quelques années, la vigueur de la jeunesse. Et c'est ainsi que ça fonctionne : les réformes, quels que soient en définitive les mots qu'on met dessus et leurs objectifs prétendus - sont là pour régénérer un organisme qui sinon finirait par s'assoupir.

Irwin Bernstein is the founder of CMS Services, an online tool created to simplify the gathering, sharing, reviewing and updating of data for an ARM firm s Compliance Management System. Additionally, he conducts CFPB readiness exams on behalf of creditors and debt buyers. He is an attorney and CPA with over 30 years in the financial […] The post Irwin Bernstein – From Risk Taker to Risk Manager appeared first on Business RadioX ®.

Jeff Siegel visits for the first time. Ian Gordon, Bruce Bragagnolo and Daniel McAdams return. Gordon believes the U.S. is facing a debt deflationary future that will result in a slowdown of economic activity that will make the 1930s event look like child's play. In the past he has predicted a DJIA 1,000 and a gold price of $4,000. How far are we into the K Winter and what will it mean for gold and gold share investing? Braganolo, the CEO of Timmins Gold will talk of the upside potential for his profitable gold mining firm operating in Mexico where it is producing over 100,000 oz. of gold annually. Does Jeff Siegel see a deflationary or inflationary economic future or a Goldilocks economy? In either event, what will it mean for energy prices? We'll ask him the best place to make money in the energy sector in 2014. Energy is always a big part of geopolitics. Daniel of the Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity will be back to discuss the latest conflicts in the Middle East.

Jeff Siegel visits for the first time. Ian Gordon, Bruce Bragagnolo and Daniel McAdams return. Gordon believes the U.S. is facing a debt deflationary future that will result in a slowdown of economic activity that will make the 1930s event look like child's play. In the past he has predicted a DJIA 1,000 and a gold price of $4,000. How far are we into the K Winter and what will it mean for gold and gold share investing? Braganolo, the CEO of Timmins Gold will talk of the upside potential for his profitable gold mining firm operating in Mexico where it is producing over 100,000 oz. of gold annually. Does Jeff Siegel see a deflationary or inflationary economic future or a Goldilocks economy? In either event, what will it mean for energy prices? We'll ask him the best place to make money in the energy sector in 2014. Energy is always a big part of geopolitics. Daniel of the Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity will be back to discuss the latest conflicts in the Middle East.

This week we are joined by the renowned Marxist economist Michael Roberts. Michael predicted the whole economic and social crisis we now find ourselves in, years before it occurred. He is a working economist in the city of London, and the author of the book ‘The Great Recession’, which gives his Marxist analysis of the current crisis. You can read his prolific writings over on his excellent blog, ‘The Next Recession’. We discuss the key differences between Keynes and Marx, Keynes' class consciousness and ideology, Kondratieff waves and profit cycles, capitalism killing robots, the breakdown theory of Capitalism, and the possibility of a final permanent crisis. You can find his blog here: http://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/ And his book here: http://www.amazon.co.uk/The-Great-Recession-Michael-Roberts/dp/144524408X Enjoy!

Ian Gordon, President of Longwave Analytics is sticking by his call that the Dow is headed to 1,000. We are still in a “Kondratieff winter”, he says, but central bank money printing is delaying the clearance of the enormous debt accumulated over the three former Kondratieff seasons. Natural market forces, however, will overpower central bank interference, there is significant downside risk for stocks, and we will return to “natural” (i.e., gold and silver) money. This podcast was recorded on 6 February 2013. It can also be heard at

Ian Gordon, President of Longwave Analytics is sticking by his call that the Dow is headed to 1,000.We are still in a “Kondratieff winter”, he says, but central bank money printing is delaying the clearance of the enormous debt accumulated over the three former Kondratieff seasons. Natural market forces, however, will overpower central bank interference, there is significant downside risk for stocks, and we will return to “natural” (i.e., gold and silver) money. This podcast was recorded on 6 February 2013. It can also be heard at Goldmoney - GoldMoney - the best way to buy gold and silver.Long Wave Group website See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit frisby.substack.com/subscribe

Ian Gordon, a student of the Kondratieff Cycle, returns to discuss his 2012 market forecast. Between 1923 and 1925, Nicolai Kondratieff discovered a long-term economic cycle primarily based on commodity prices, interest rates and trade beginning in 1789. Ian Gordon has improved upon this concept by including multiple factors not previously recognized. Based on his interpretation of the Longwave cycle, Ian has accurately predicted the current economic downturn and credit crisis. Along with other guests like Hoye, Prechter and McHugh, Ian believes we are now in one of the largest Kondratieff contractions in history and that at its conclusion life as we have known it will no longer exist. Gordon predicts the Dow to bottom at 1,000 and gold to rise to $4,000. But how soon? How will we end 2012? To help you apply Ian's bullish views on precious metals, we have interviews with Chris Crupi, Pres. of Paramount Gold and Amir Adnani, Chairman of Brazil Resources.

Ian Gordon, a student of the Kondratieff Cycle, returns to discuss his 2012 market forecast. Between 1923 and 1925, Nicolai Kondratieff discovered a long-term economic cycle primarily based on commodity prices, interest rates and trade beginning in 1789. Ian Gordon has improved upon this concept by including multiple factors not previously recognized. Based on his interpretation of the Longwave cycle, Ian has accurately predicted the current economic downturn and credit crisis. Along with other guests like Hoye, Prechter and McHugh, Ian believes we are now in one of the largest Kondratieff contractions in history and that at its conclusion life as we have known it will no longer exist. Gordon predicts the Dow to bottom at 1,000 and gold to rise to $4,000. But how soon? How will we end 2012? To help you apply Ian's bullish views on precious metals, we have interviews with Chris Crupi, Pres. of Paramount Gold and Amir Adnani, Chairman of Brazil Resources.

Over the last 100 years, at bear market bottoms, the Dow-to-gold ratio has bottomed at or near 1:1. But the excesses in debt and mal investment are so excessive in the global markets in this major period of deleveraging, that Ian Gordon believes the Dow will bottom at a 1.0:0.25 ratio. Specifically, Ian believes the Dow is heading for 1,000 and gold to $4,000. He will explain his logic for this prediction and also update us on how far along the Kondratieff winter depression we have traveled. We will also get Ian's take on the U.S. debt and commodity markets. Also joining us will be David Wolfin, the President of Avino Silver. This Mexican silver company, which is now commencing production, appears to have very major growth potential from their existing property. Chen Lin should be presenting some money making ideas and Roger Wiegand should be with us to talk about the directions of most of the major markets.

Over the last 100 years, at bear market bottoms, the Dow-to-gold ratio has bottomed at or near 1:1. But the excesses in debt and mal investment are so excessive in the global markets in this major period of deleveraging, that Ian Gordon believes the Dow will bottom at a 1.0:0.25 ratio. Specifically, Ian believes the Dow is heading for 1,000 and gold to $4,000. He will explain his logic for this prediction and also update us on how far along the Kondratieff winter depression we have traveled. We will also get Ian's take on the U.S. debt and commodity markets. Also joining us will be David Wolfin, the President of Avino Silver. This Mexican silver company, which is now commencing production, appears to have very major growth potential from their existing property. Chen Lin should be presenting some money making ideas and Roger Wiegand should be with us to talk about the directions of most of the major markets.

In this episode we discuss the idea that societies, and economies, are governed by both short and very long cycles of social mood and sentiment. If this theory of cycles (like those proposed by Kondratieff) are correct, then there is very little policy makers can do one way or the other to change economic outcomes. The grandiose visions laid out by the US President’s state of the union address are irrelevant to the economic and psychological prosperity of the nation. The ideas offered by the President’s political opponents are likewise irrelevant for improving the economy. These generational cycles also imply that the cause of the recession and “financial crisis” is deeper than a lack of regulations or risky investment behavior. It was the general bullish attitude of society which inevitably led to lax regulation and excessive risk taking. The next time there is broad bullish sentiment throughout society (80 or 90 years hence) then regulation will inevitably become lax and risk taking will again reach excesses. We talk about how NO political leaders are championing the idea of state or municipal bankruptcies as a method to cure long-term budget problems. There are NO political leaders suggesting that the major financial institutions like CityGroup should just go bust and that bond-holders and depositors should lose their money. Instead, policy makers whine about deficits, stimulus, education and social safety nets. Lastly, we explore the fact the Bitcoin is now reaching a new high, in alignment with other markets, with bearish implications.

Ian Gordon believes there is a 20% chance of a total seize up of the global financial system during 2011. He is certain current Fed policy will fail now just as it did during the 1930s to avoid another Great Depression. Why has the Fed continued to carry out policies that failed during the last major deflationary event? Perhaps it's because those same policies did appear to work during the spring, summer and fall seasons of the 60-to-70 year Kondratieff cycle. It worked every time under Alan Greenspan's watch. But Greenspan never faced the bursting of a credit bubble. That happened under Bernanke. No Federal Reserve Chairman has been challenged with a financial problem of this magnitude since the 1930s. Indeed, the problems confronting the Federal Reserve after the stock market crash in 1929 were rather minor compared to what not only faces the Fed now, but the entire global banking system. Ian will suggest what you can do to prepare for this impending calamity.

Nations and their economies run through 50 to 70 year credit expansion/contraction cycles known as a Kondratieff wave. Special guest Ian Gordon, Chairman of Long Wave Group and economic historian tells Jay Taylor why the U.S. and the global economy has entered into a credit contraction that will be as bad or worse than the deflationary depression of the 1930s. Ian will explain why polices geared to stimulating the economy will not only fail but will plunge us even deeper into a price collapsing depression. He will explain why he is betting on deflation, not inflation and why, in this environment, gold mining will be a portfolio savior as it was during the Great Depression when the Dow to gold ratio approached 1:1. Ian will provide an update from the time we last talked to him on our show back on May 5, 2009. Ian may also name a few of his favorite gold mining stocks. www.longwavegroup.com

Nations and their economies run through 50 to 70 year credit expansion/contraction cycles known as a Kondratieff wave. Special guest Ian Gordon, Chairman of Long Wave Group and economic historian tells Jay Taylor why the U.S. and the global economy has entered into a credit contraction that will be as bad or worse than the deflationary depression of the 1930s. Ian will explain why polices geared to stimulating the economy will not only fail but will plunge us even deeper into a price collapsing depression. Ian will explain why he is betting on deflation, not inflation and why, in this environment, gold mining will be a portfolio savior as it was during the Great Depression when the Dow to gold ratio approached 1:1. Ian tells why he believes the Dow to gold ratio may well fall to an even more remarkable 0.25:1.0 in this depression and why gold stocks will make their owners truly wealthy. Ian may also name a few of his favorite gold mining stocks. www.longwavegroup.com

In this episode we discuss the idea that societies, and economies, are governed by both short and very long cycles of social mood and sentiment. If this theory of cycles (like those proposed by Kondratieff) are correct, then there is very little policy makers can do one way or the other to change economic outcomes. The grandiose visions laid out by the US President’s state of the union address are irrelevant to the economic and psychological prosperity of the nation. The ideas offered by the President’s political opponents are likewise irrelevant for improving the economy. These generational cycles also imply that the cause of the recession and “financial crisis” is deeper than a lack of regulations or risky investment behavior. It was the general bullish attitude of society which inevitably led to lax regulation and excessive risk taking. The next time there is broad bullish sentiment throughout society (80 or 90 years hence) then regulation will inevitably become lax and risk taking will again reach excesses. We talk about how NO political leaders are championing the idea of state or municipal bankruptcies as a method to cure long-term budget problems. There are NO political leaders suggesting that the major financial institutions like CityGroup should just go bust and that bond-holders and depositors should lose their money. Instead, policy makers whine about deficits, stimulus, education and social safety nets. Lastly, we explore the fact the Bitcoin is now reaching a new high, in alignment with other markets, with bearish implications.