Podcasts about Pantheon Macroeconomics

First Time Homebuyers Hit a Record Low With the high cost of housing and higher interest rates, people trying to get their first home dropped to a record low around 23% in 2024. The average age of the first-time homebuyer has increased 10 years over the historical average to 38 years old. The median income is now $97,000 and the first-time home buyers are coming up with an average down payment of 9% of the value of the home. Many of these young buyers are using FHA loans, which require a very small down payment and according to research roughly 30% of all FHA mortgages have a debt service ratio of over 50%. This means more than half of these buyers' incomes is going toward servicing debt. This could be a hard pill to swallow for young buyers with not much money left over for luxuries like vacations and new cars. However, if when they buy the home, they understand that if they really tighten their belts for the next three to four years, they will probably be fine. New home builders are doing what they can to try and get rid of the largest inventory of unsold homes on their lots since 2009. The median price of a new home is currently less than one percent higher than the median price of existing properties, which historically has seen a 17% premium. The home builders are using profits from their homes to buy down mortgages. Even though the 30-year mortgage was recently around 6.8%, home builders can buy these mortgages down which led buyers of new homes to a rate around 5%. Buying down these rates has cost home builders about 8% of the purchase price of the home. This reduces their profits but better than the alternative of sitting on unsold homes with a carrying cost for the builder. I don't see this situation getting better anytime soon because I'm not looking for a large decrease in mortgage rates and incomes over the next year will probably increase somewhere around 3 to 4%. We continue to believe the rapid increase in the price of homes over the last few years will not last and it will now take some time to get back to normal market. Maybe we will see a better real estate market in 2027 or 2028.   Is Bitcoin coming to your 401k? I have been concerned with bitcoin and crypto as a whole for several years for many reasons including fraud, illicit activity, and the fact that there is really no way to derive an intrinsic value for it since there is no earnings, cash flow, or anything really backing the asset class. I was disappointed to see the current Labor Department removed language that cautioned employers to exercise “extreme care” before making crypto and related investments available to their workers. They cited “serious concerns” about the prudence of exposing investors' retirement savings to crypto given “significant risks of fraud, theft, and loss.” While this isn't necessarily a full-on endorsement for placing crypto in 401k plans, it definitely seems like the administration is continuing on its path to try and normalize crypto as an established asset class. Even with this change in language I would be surprised to see a huge surge in cryptocurrencies within 401k plans. Ultimately, ERISA bestows a fiduciary duty on employers and company officials overseeing 401k investments and that means legally employers must put the best interests of 401(k) investors first and act prudently when choosing which investments to offer (or not offer). Given the extreme volatility within crypto I believe it would be a huge risk for these companies to offer it as it could open them up to lawsuits if there are major declines. We'll have to see what other changes are made as time progresses, but I don't believe crypto has any place within a 401k plan at this time.   Inflation report shows continued progress The personal consumption expenditures price index, which is also known as PCE and is the Federal Reserve's key inflation measure, showed an annual increase of just 2.1%. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, showed a gain of 2.5%. Both results were 0.1% below their respective estimates. Overall, inflation has continued to cool and is now quite close to the Fed's 2% target. The question that remains is how will tariffs ultimately impact inflation? An economist from Pantheon Macroeconomics said that he believed core PCE would peak later this year between 3.0% and 3.5%, if the current mix of tariffs remained in place. I would say it is difficult to forecast the tariff impact since we don't know what will ultimately be passed on to the end consumer. It will definitely be interesting to see what numbers look like in the coming months, but ultimately, I believe most of the concerns around inflation are overblown and even if the rate for PCE is around 3%, I don't see that as being problematic for the economy.     Financial Planning: What it Means to be an Accredited Investor An accredited investor is someone who meets specific income or net worth thresholds—such as earning over $200,000 annually ($300,000 with a spouse) or having over $1 million in net worth excluding their home—and is allowed to invest in private securities offerings not registered with the SEC. These investments, which include private REITS, private equity, hedge funds, and startups, often promise high returns but carry significant risks such as illiquidity, limited transparency, and the potential for total loss. While many of these offerings are only available through fiduciary advisors—who are legally obligated to act in their clients' best interest—investors must still exercise caution. Fiduciary duty applies only in certain contexts (such as investment advice) and may not extend to related areas like insurance or commission-based products. Additionally, what qualifies as “acting in your best interest” is often subjective and open to interpretation. Working with a fiduciary does not guarantee protection, and investors should remain vigilant, ask questions, and independently evaluate any recommendation. Also, private investments aren't necessary better than public investments, so just because you qualify as an accredited investor doesn't mean you should be investing in private securities.   Companies Discussed: Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (REGN), Intuit Inc. (INTU), Target Corporation (TGT) & Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)

India's economy is the darling of emerging markets, with a burgeoning middle class, a rising population and rapid growth set to outperform all large peers this year. But recent data suggest cracks are forming, with less government spending and a slowdown in factory output. Miguel Chanco, chief emerging Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics and a long-time critic of India's growth story, joins hosts John Lee of Bloomberg Intelligence and Katia Dmitrieva of Bloomberg News to explain why he believes investors are underestimating the slowdown to come.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Manufacturers of Chinese electric vehicles intend to build their companies into powerhouses to rival Volkswagen and Renault. The Chinese government backs their expansion into new markets, including Europe. This has caused political tension and as a result, a trade war is looming between China and Europe. On this podcast, Duncan Wrigley, Chief China Plus Economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics, discusses the situation with Zeyu Xu of Xinhua News in Beijing.

'The multiple implications of population decline and aging' Claus Vistesen, Chief Eurozone Economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics, in conversation with Dan O'Brien, IIEA Chief Economist.

China has been trying to persuade the world's super wealthy that it remains a good place to invest. It throws parties where the finest champagne flows to show its enthusiasm for international business. Yet confidence has been undermined by political interference in the affairs of many firms. In this podcast, Duncan Wrigley, Chief China Plus economist, Pantheon Macroeconomics, discusses China's tactics with regular host, Duncan Bartlett.

Good morning from London, where the FTSE 100 is up by around 1% so far this morning after some positive economic data overnight in China. The UK-listed mining giants always respond well to positive news in Asia and today is no exception, the data on this occasion was a private survey of Chinese factory activity that showed manufacturing defying expectations and expanding in November, buoyed by stronger demand. The biggest story here in the UK so far this morning though is another rise in house prices. Nationwide reported that house prices rose for the third month in a row boosting hopes that the UK housing market might be stabilising. The lender's house price index showed prices rose by 0.2% month-on-month from October. But Gabriella Dickens at Pantheon Macroeconomics warned not to “get too excited about the prospect of a sustained recovery just yet.” She thinks the rise in Nationwide's index over the last couple of months will reverse in the very near term and a material recovery in house prices still looks a few months away yet. And finally in small caps, Ondo InsurTech PLC (LSE:ONDO) has raised £1.08 million via a placing completed yesterday after market close. Ondo, which provides its LeakBot solution to protect homes from the impact of water damage, said it plans to use the proceeds for further working capital to go after existing contracted opportunities. That's all for this morning but there's still plenty to come from us here today so check back later. Have a great end to the week #ProactiveInvestors #FTSE100 #invest #investing #investment #investor #stockmarket #stocks #stock #stockmarketnews

China is coming to terms with a worrying symbol of economic decline: deflation. Falling prices are linked to a slump in the property market and a decline in exports, hitting many businesses hard. In this podcast, Duncan Wrigley, Chief China Plus Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics explains why this represents a problem for the global economy. The host is regular presenter, Duncan Bartlett.

China's economy is struggling to regain momentum following the pandemic. Dwindling export demand has held back the manufacturing sector and there's been a slump in property prices. In this podcast, Duncan Wrigley, Chief China Plus Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, discusses the options available to help revive China's fortunes with regular host, Duncan Bartlett.

Ian Shepherdson, founder and chief U.S. economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, believes that home prices may fall another 15% in 2023, citing the large disparity between property costs and buyer incomes. He predicted the eventual housing crash of 2008 in 2005 and recently suggested that the price-income gap, coupled with increased house supply and high mortgage rates, may precipitate a period of continued deceleration of the housing market rather than a significant rebound this year.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this prediction, and attempt to determine just how likely it could be based on current data.They discuss comments from Zillow senior economist Jeff Tucker, who says that, in 2022, homeownership was further out of reach than it has been in modern recorded history. While home prices and mortgage rates may be falling, making the market at least a little more accessible, they're doing so from historic highs.Chris and Saied look at an interview with Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who said that explosive jobs growth is evidence that the central bank has more work to do when it comes to taming inflation, including more hikes to interest rates.They also offer some thoughts on the differences between the affordability crisis this time around, and the last recession.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You'll Learn in this Show:The difference between being data-driven and data-based.Why Bob Iger is right-sizing the company to weather the storm and to be more efficient, returning more profits to the shareholders.Why Zoom has laid off 15% of its workforce.What would happen if the Fed started lowering rates again and the effect it would have on inflation?And so much more...Resources:"Economist Who Predicted the 2008 Housing Crash Says Home Prices Will Drop 15% in 2023" (article from Yahoo! Finance)"Home prices are falling, but that doesn't mean they're affordable" (article from Grid)"Bob Iger Outlines New Disney Org Structure, With 7,000 Job Cuts Planned" (article from The Hollywood Reporter)"Fed's Neel Kashkari says central bank has not made enough progress, keeping his rate outlook" (article from CNBC)"Zoom to lay off 1,300 employees, or about 15% of its workforce" (article from CNBC)"Yahoo to lay off more than 20% of staff" (article from Yahoo! Finance)

A U.S. economist famous for predicting the 2008 housing crash believes that home prices could plunge another 15% this year. In a recent analyst note, Ian Shepherdson – the founder and chief economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics – suggested that home price declines will accelerate further in 2023 as a result of low affordability and growing inventory."We estimate that single-family home prices have fallen by 5.4% from their recent peak in May 2022, but they still need to fall by a further 15% or so before they return to their long-run average, compared to disposable incomes," he wrote in a recent note to clients.Although consumer demand likely is bouncing back from a low point in the fall as mortgage rates fall from a record-high, Shepherdson – who predicted the mid-2000s housing bubble and subsequent recession – believes that prices have a ways to go before they hit bottom.Support the showSign Up For Exclusive Episodes At: https://reasonabletv.com/LIKE & SUBSCRIBE for new videos every day. https://www.youtube.com/c/NewsForReasonablePeople

Hour 1 * Fox News host Jesse Watters mocked Hillary Clinton after Clinton claimed Republicans were plotting to steal the 2024 election – Where's the media? * This makes three elections that Hillary says have been stolen: 2000, 2016 and 2024! * The Heritage Foundation's Election Fraud Database presents a sampling of recent proven instances of election fraud from across the country – heritage.org/voterfraud * Each and every one of the cases in this database represents an instance in which a public official, usually a prosecutor, thought the fraud serious enough to act upon it. And each and every one ended in a finding that the individual had engaged in wrongdoing in connection with an election hoping to affect its outcome—or that the results of an election were altered or sufficiently in question and had to be overturned – heritage.org/election-integrity * Election Integrity and Best Practices and Standards for Election Audits. Hour 2 * Biden Falsely Claims Student Debt Forgiveness Program Was Approved by Congress – Zachary Stieber. * The Biden administration continues to tout misleading gas prices in their messaging to the American people, using the “most common” price of gas instead of the national average – $3.49 as the “most common” price of gas, while the national average was $3.79 according to the American Automobile Association. * The New York State Supreme Court ruled Tuesday that New York City cannot fire employees for not getting vaccinated against COVID-19, dealing a blow to Democratic Mayor Eric Adams' pandemic policy. The court ordered the city to reinstate all fired employees and grant them backpay, citing the fact that being vaccinated against COVID-19 does not stop an individual from catching or spreading the virus, and thus being vaccinated does not grant enough community-wide benefit to warrant a mandate – The health commissioner “acted beyond his authority”. * Biden gets his third covid booster shot, his fifth shot overall! * Fox News host Harris Faulkner clashed with a fellow panelist on “Outnumbered” Tuesday over how much blame President Joe Biden should shoulder for the economy. * “You can't just blame inflation on the Biden administration, you just have to look at facts,” Leslie Marshall, a Democratic consultant, said – The facts are you gotta look at the Feds. * The price of residential homes could fall by 20% next year off the back of mortgage rate hikes that are reducing demand, said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics. * Plastic Recycling Is a Fool's Errand Greenpeace report says the problem is most plastic just can't be recycled – Kate Seamons. * “Plastic recycling is a dead-end street. So proclaims a new Greenpeace report that makes that very case using an underwhelming set of stats regarding the scant amount of plastic that's recycled in the US. Per the report, at our peak in 2014, America recycled 9.5% of plastic waste, though that number was inflated by the way in which it was calculated-plastic exported to China to be “recycled” was included. --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/loving-liberty/support

Sales at the tech giants Alphabet and Microsoft are slowing sharply because of fears of a downturn in the economy. Alphabet, which owns Google and YouTube, said sales rose just 6% in the three months to September, to $69bn, as firms cut their advertising budgets. Sir Martin Sorrell is the founder and Executive Chairman of the advertising firm S4 Capital, and used to be the chairman of WPP, one of the world's largest marketing companies. He gives us his reaction. We hear from the President of the World Bank David Malpass. He has said the global economy is facing a 'grim outlook' which could last for decades. It's because of rapidly rising prices and higher interest rates, a debt crisis threatening to affect economies around the globe. Melanie Debono Senior Europe Economist from the research firm Pantheon Macroeconomics shares her thoughts on the programme. We find out why the price of a decade-long motorbike permit has hit nine thousand US dollars in Singapore. The BBC's Joao Da Silva is in Singapore and explains how it is affecting many of the city state's moto delivery riders.

* Biden Falsely Claims Student Debt Forgiveness Program Was Approved by Congress - Zachary Stieber. * The Biden administration continues to tout misleading gas prices in their messaging to the American people, using the "most common" price of gas instead of the national average - $3.49 as the "most common" price of gas, while the national average was $3.79 according to the American Automobile Association. * The New York State Supreme Court ruled Tuesday that New York City cannot fire employees for not getting vaccinated against COVID-19, dealing a blow to Democratic Mayor Eric Adams' pandemic policy. The court ordered the city to reinstate all fired employees and grant them backpay, citing the fact that being vaccinated against COVID-19 does not stop an individual from catching or spreading the virus, and thus being vaccinated does not grant enough community-wide benefit to warrant a mandate - The health commissioner "acted beyond his authority". * Biden gets his third covid booster shot, his fifth shot overall! * Fox News host Harris Faulkner clashed with a fellow panelist on "Outnumbered" Tuesday over how much blame President Joe Biden should shoulder for the economy. * "You can't just blame inflation on the Biden administration, you just have to look at facts," Leslie Marshall, a Democratic consultant, said - The facts are you gotta look at the Feds. * The price of residential homes could fall by 20% next year off the back of mortgage rate hikes that are reducing demand, said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics. * Plastic Recycling Is a Fool's Errand Greenpeace report says the problem is most plastic just can't be recycled - Kate Seamons. * "Plastic recycling is a dead-end street. So proclaims a new Greenpeace report that makes that very case using an underwhelming set of stats regarding the scant amount of plastic that's recycled in the US. Per the report, at our peak in 2014, America recycled 9.5% of plastic waste, though that number was inflated by the way in which it was calculated-plastic exported to China to be "recycled" was included.

ASX 200 SPI Futures up 26. Resources to shine. ANZ in focus. MQG Results.US equities were mixed in Wednesday trading. S&P and Nasdaq both finished lower after rallying for a third straight session on Tuesday and finishing at best levels in over a month. The Nasdaq dropped 228.12 points, or 2.04%, to close at 10,970.99. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.37 points, roughly flat for the day and ending at 31,839.11. S&P 500 lost 0.74%, ending at 3,830.60.Metals, healthcare, payments, rails, autos, IBs, semi-cap equipment, casual diners, grocers, tobacco among best performers. Most groups held up despite megacap tech weakness.Advancing stocks outnumber declining ones by a roughly 2-to-1 margin in the NYSE Composite, according to FactSet. In the S&P 500, the split is nearly 60-40 with advancers in the lead.Meta results after hours saw losses again. Down 12% after hours. Meta Platforms beat estimates for quarterly revenue on Wednesday as its dominance of the online ad market helped it attract a steady stream of business from recession-wary companies.Meta revenue in the third quarter fell for a second straight time to $US27.71bn from $US29.01bn.Harley-Davidson shares rose 12.6% after the motorcycle manufacturer reported beating expectations before the bell.Spotify fell more than 8% after it reported a wider-than-expected Q3 loss.Treasuries were better. 10Y yields spent some time below 4% and 3m/10Y spread inverted.Dollar index down 1.1% after losing ~1% on Tuesday, now lowest in over a month. Gold finished up 0.7%. Bitcoin futures up 2.3%, nearing $21K. The price of bitcoin was trading above its 50-day moving average for a second day.WTI crude settled up 3%, just off best levels.S&P was lower on Alphabet and Microsoft selloff (which make up ~10% of S&P 500),Biggest bright spot seemed to be lower rate backdrop and weaker dollar. Terminal rate below 4.90% after pushing above 5% last week and dollar index at a three week low.BoC raised rates by 50 bp vs expectations for a 75 bp move. Is this the first central bank to pivot? The benchmark overnight lending rate by 0.5% to 3.75%, less than the 0.75% move expected by marketsSeptember US new home sales came in above consensus, though August was revised down.The US will release its third-quarter annualised GDP data on Thursday.Jerome Powell could hint next week that the central bank's aggressive pace of tightening won't continue indefinitely, according to Capital Economics's Andrew Hunter.The Bank of England will lift its key rate by 0.75 percentage points next week, and also say it will shift to a slower pace of rate increases going forward, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics.Stoxx 50 +0.6% FTSE +0.6% CAC +0.4% DAX +1.1%Base metals rally hard as USD falls 1%.AUD up to 65c. Oil up 2.3%. Gold up 1%.Get up to speed with Henry Jennings' Pre-Market Podcast.Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and research and become a better investor.

Ian Shepherdson, ekonom med amerikansk ekonomi som specialitet, gästar podden för att ge oss sin syn på den amerikanska ekonomin. Ian är grundare av den oberoende analysfirman Pantheon Macroeconomics. Två gånger, år 2003 och 2015, har han utsetts av Wall Street Journal till årets prognosmakare av amerikansk ekonomi. Ian är en aning positiv nu till den amerikanska ekonomin och börsen. Hör honom berätta om varför i podden. Babak Esfahani, VD för bolaget Plejd, gästar podden för en längre intervju. Plejd har rönt stort intresse bland investerare under de sista åren. Hör Babak berätta om Plejds ”resa” från lyxbåtar till där de är idag samt hur han ser på framtiden. I podden går vi naturligtvis även igenom det aktuella svenska börsläget samt begreppet ”självmatande finansiella bubblor” och vilka konsekvenser de kan få på både utvecklingen i enskilda bolag och börsen som helhet. Podden leds av Daniel Ljungström. Jonas Jansson är också med genom hela avsnittet.   Vill du prenumerera på BBDs investerarbrev? Följ länken nedan: https://www.bankingbydaniel.se/prenumerera/               Riskinformation Banking By Daniel är inte finansiella rådgivare, står inte under finansinspektionens tillsyn och ger inga råd. Investeringsbeslut baserade på information som direkt eller indirekt kommer ifrån Banking By Daniel fattas alltid självständigt av investeraren. Banking By Daniel frånsäger sig allt ansvar för eventuell förlust som grundar sig på användandet av information från Banking By Daniel. De åsikter som framkommer är gästernas egna åsikter och skall därför inte ses som rådgivning då de inte tar hänsyn till mottagarens specifika investeringsmål, kunskapsnivå eller riskvilja. Tänk på att historisk avkastning inte är en garanti för framtida utveckling. De pengar du investerar i finansiella instrument kan både öka och minska i värde. Risken finns att du inte får tillbaka hela det investerade beloppet. Detta ska inte ses som råd eller rekommendation. Gör alltid en egen analys. 

China has cut its benchmark interest rate by a tenth of one percent which Craig Botham, Chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics explains why this is being seen as a further sign that China's economy could be in trouble. State-owned Aramco announced record profits of nearly 50 billion US dollars for the second three-month period of this year. It comes as Russia's invasion of Ukraine has led to oil and gas prices trending much higher. Our correspondent Sameer Hashmi joins us live from Dubai. It's exactly a year today since the Afghan capital Kabul fell to Taliban forces, marking the end of a 20 year experiment in western-style liberal democracy in the country. Since then the economy has collapsed, throwing tens of millions of people into abject poverty. Former Afghan finance minister, Khaled Payenda ran the finance ministry for the last six months of democratic rule right up to August of last year, he speaks to World Business Report's Ed Butler. Thailand's economy has expanded at the fastest pace in a year, following the recent easing of Covid restrictions. Bruce Haxton runs tuk tuk tours, he speaks to us from Chiang Mai about how business has been for him.

Kenya's deputy president, William Ruto, has been declared the winner of a tight race against the opposition leader and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga. We talk to Ken Gichinga, chief economist from Mentorial Economics, in Nairobi, about the markets' expectations from the new leader. Scotland has become the first country in the world to issue a law requiring public settings to provide free period products. Georgie Nicholson from social enterprise Hey Girls discusses the challenges in the fight against period poverty. The Rhine, one of Europe's most important trade routes, has seen its water levels fall as low as 40 centimetres in certain parts, preventing many commercial vessels from navigating. Claus Vistesen, Chief Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, explains why this river is a key route for trade. And we analyse the latest developments in the markets with Arbor Financial Service's Peter Jankovskis.

Historic jump in borrowing costs takes place in the world's largest economy. Rising prices of food, fuel and other products have driven the US Federal Reserve to hike its benchmark interest rate by a three-quarters of a percentage point. That's the sharpest increase in interest rates since 1994. Other central banks are also swinging into action to tame rising prices. The Bank of England raised its lending rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% and the European Central Bank says it intends to raise rates multiple times this year. We spoke to Claus Vistesen, chief Eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. He joined us from London. #InterestRates #Inflation #MonetaryPolicy

Nel podcast precedente abbiamo parlato degli effetti del conflitto tra Russia e Ucraina per l'economia globale, dell'impatto diseguale sui diversi e in questo podcast proviamo a discutere brevemente delle reazioni dei mercati finanziarie e delle alternative per i risparmiatori anche in termini di beni rifugio. Come ricordato recentemente anche da Warren Buffett, tra gli investitori di maggior successo della storia, la scelta più razionale nel lungo termine per difendere il proprio patrimonio consiste in un'allocazione diversificata sui mercati azionari internazionali. In generale i mercati globali di solito si indeboliscono quando le guerre si avvicinano, si rafforzano molto prima che le guerre finiscano e trattano le calamità umane con un'indifferenza glaciale. Questo è stato un modello storico comune, comunque. E, con alcune importanti avvertenze, sembra essere in atto con l'ultima aggressione della Russia verso l'Ucraina.Le correzioni sui mercati finanziari e delle materie prime sono iniziate prima che l'intervento bellico si concretizzasse in una vera e propria invasione. Secondo Claus Vistesen, capoeconomista area euro per Pantheon Macroeconomics ha dichiarato che mentre è difficile prevedere l'evoluzione del conflitto “Le conseguenze a breve termine per i mercati sono relativamente semplici: i prezzi dell'energia continueranno a salire, e le azioni continueranno a scendere".Non tutti i titoli si muovono però nella stessa direzione: L'aumento dei prezzi del petrolio e del gas ha sostenuto il settore energetico con riferimento agli stati uniti questa componente dell'S&P 500, ha reso quest'anno il 21,8% fino allo scorso lunedì a fronte di un calo del l'indice generale, pari all'8,8%.Peraltro i mercati azionari anche prima del conflitto erano già in tensione per le aspettative su aumento dei tassi di interesse, inflazione in crescita e discontinuità ancora esistenti nelle catena di approvvigionamento. Secondo il giudizio quasi unanime dei principali commentatori gli investitori con orizzonte di lungo termine in portafogli ben diversificati di azioni e obbligazioni di alta qualità - detenuti direttamente o attraverso fondi comuni a basso costo e fondi negoziati in borsa - saranno probabilmente in grado di superare questa crisi, come hanno fatto con molte altre.La Finanza in Soldoni è anche una newsletter https://lafinanzainsoldoni.substack.com/e un libro che trovate in Libreria e nei principali Bookstore on line.https://www.amazon.it/finanza-soldoni-Massimo-Famularo/dp/8868492458/Leggi le "Storie di Tutti i colori più uno"https://www.amazon.it/Storie-tutti-colori-pi%C3%B9-uno/dp/B09F1G3WZP/Seguite i miei aggiornamenti via https://massimofamularo.com/https://www.youtube.com/c/MassimoFamularo/Riferimenti:https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/22/business/russia-ukraine-markets.htmlhttps://www.adviseonly.com/economia-e-mercati/commento-al-mercato/zampata-dellorso-russo-sullucraina-quali-conseguenze-per-i-mercati/

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending February 19th, 2022… what economists are saying about rate hikes, where rents are growing the fastest, and a new residential development plan for Disney fans.Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.Economic NewsWe begin with economic news from this past week, and what economists are saying about inflation and rate hikes. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard believes the Fed should push rates up a full point in the near term. His comments about the need for more aggressive action is also pushing rate hike forecasts as high as seven this year. Bullard told CNBC: “I do think we need to front-load more of our planned removal of accommodation than we would have previously.” (1) The government reported last week that the annual rate of inflation hit 7.5%. (2)Unemployment applications were up 23,000 last week, but economists are not concerned about the strength of the job market. As CNBC reports, millions of businesses have open positions they'd like to fill, so we probably won't see many layoffs. Currently, there are 11 million job openings. (3)Existing home sales were up almost 7% from December to January for a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 6.5 million homes. That's despite the tight inventory which has now dropped to a 1.6-month supply. Economists had predicted sales of 6.1 million homes. Sales were up in all parts of the country, but sales were strongest in the South with a 9% increase. (4) Builders are letting up on the gas pedal to some degree. The Census Bureau reported that housing starts were down 4% in January. Economists say the decline reflects a number of obstacles that builders are dealing with including supply-chain issues, COVID-19 cases, and bad weather in some areas. Builders are also worried that higher mortgage rates could impact demand. Permits were up 1%. The chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, Ian Shepherdson, told CNBC: “The housing market is set for a sustained softening over the next few months.” (5)A monthly survey on homebuilder confidence was also down. The National Association of Home Builders says it fell for a second straight month, mostly due to supply chain delays. NAHB Chairman Jerry Konter says: “Production disruptions are so severe that many builders are waiting for months to receive cabinets, garage doors, countertops, and appliances.” (6)Mortgage Rates Mortgage rates have now jumped to their highest level since May 2019. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was up 23 basis points to 3.92% last week. The 15-year was up 22 points to 3.15%. (7)In other news making headlines…Rents Are Surging HigherRent growth hit a new record in January. Redfin says the average asking rent was up 15.2% year-over-year. Rent growth was the highest in Portland, Oregon, and Austin, Texas at 39% and 35% respectively. Other metros in the top ten list include the Florida metros of Tampa, Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, and Miami. They are all in the 30% range. (8)Redfin's chief economist Daryl Fairweather says that housing is expensive whether you are renting or buying. Redfin says the average monthly rent is now $1,891 while the average monthly mortgage payment is $1,595. Many consumers can't afford to buy a home, however, because of the down payment.Investors Buying Record Share of HomesThat kind of rent growth is great motivation for investors who bought 18.4% of U.S. homes in the fourth quarter. That's almost 13% higher than Q4 of last year. Redfin says that investors are taking advantage of the strong demand for rentals and the incredible rent growth. (9)Redfin says that investors are paying high prices for homes because of that rent growth. Many are also paying in cash, which eliminates the expense of a loan. A typical price point for investors is about $433,000. That's up 10% from last year.Disney's Housing Development Plan If you love Disney theme parks, you may get the opportunity to enjoy the magic as your primary residence. The Walt Disney Company announced a residential development project called “Cotino” near Palm Springs, in Rancho Mirage. It'll be a 24-acre “grand oasis featuring clear turquoise waters with crystal lagoons.” (10) It will house residents of all ages with a special section for the 55-plus age group. Homes will range in size from condos and single-family homes to larger estates. There will be a waterfront clubhouse, club-only beach area, water activities, and Disney events throughout the year. Disney cast members will run the community association. Day passes will also be available to non-residents.If you don't want to live in the desert, Disney says it is working on other locations for future developments as part of its “Storyliving by Disney” long-term plan. That's it for today. Check the show notes for links. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review!You can also join RealWealth for free at newsforinvestors.com. As a member, you have access to the Investor Portal where you can view sample property pro-formas and connect with our network of resources, including experienced investment counselors, property teams, lenders, 1031 exchange facilitators, attorneys, CPAs and more.Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.Links:1 -https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/14/bullard-say-the-fed-needs-to-front-load-tightening-because-inflation-is-possibly-accelerating.html2 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coming-up-consumer-price-index-116444982733 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-jobless-claims-jump-23-000-to-248-000-11645105161?mod=economy-politics4 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coming-up-u-s-existing-home-sales-11645195810?mod=economic-report5 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coming-up-u-s-housing-starts-11645104312?mod=newsviewer_click6 -https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/16/builders-are-waiting-months-to-get-cabinets-and-garage-doors.html?__source=newsletter%7Ceveningbrief7 -http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/8 -https://finance.yahoo.com/news/real-estate-investors-buying-record-140000275.html9 -https://www.redfin.com/news/redfin-rental-report-january-2022/10 -https://magazine.realtor/daily-news/2022/02/18/disney-to-build-themed-housing-development

In this Macro Matters edition, host BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Ian Shepherdson, Chief Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, to discuss inflation dynamics and the Federal Reserve's reaction function. Shepherdson doesn't believe the Fed will hike prior to 3Q22, even with the next few months' inflation running very hot. In a second segment, Interest Rate Associate Strategist Angelo Manolatos reviews his views on Canadian interest rates and suggests that the Bank of Canada may hike prior to the Fed, and rates generally should climb in 2022.

In this episode we’ll be looking at whether vaccines can outrun new variants and what this is likely to mean for economies and stock markets.Let’s start by looking at the virus situation. The vaccine rollout appears to be gathering pace, but new variants threaten to undermine some of the good work. It seems equity investors still believe the vaccine will triumph – where do you think the balance lies?Despite higher levels of new COVID-19 cases prompting stricter lockdowns in many parts of the world, the MSCI All Country World equity index (ACWI) is currently up around 3% so far in January(1). This optimism is largely down to the COVID-19 vaccine rollout, plus some ongoing stimulus and expectations of an earnings recovery. There are reasons to be encouraged: globally, around 1% of the population have been vaccinated, at a run rate of nearly 4 million per day(2). The new Biden administration has promised to deliver 100 million shots to Americans in his first 100 days. Given the current pace is 1.5 million per day and rising, this seems to be an achievable ambition(3). While that would only immunise around 30% of the population, it should nonetheless, protect front-line workers and the most vulnerable to the virus. In turn, this should reduce hospital admissions and encourage the US authorities to lift lockdown restrictions.  Can you see lockdown in the UK being lifted anytime soon? And how is the economy faring under lockdown 3.0?In the UK, the government has made lifting lockdowns dependent on vaccinating 15 million of the top four priority groups(4). Given that 6.3 million people have already received their first shot, the inoculation program is on track to meet this target(5). Potentially this would allow schools to open after half-term on 22 February and non-essential shops by mid-March. Moreover, the third lockdown is likely to have less impact on growth than previously. Unlike last spring, construction and manufacturing firms have remained open, while retailers can provide click and collect service and have had more time to adjust to provide online deliveries.  Do you think markets are sufficiently pricing in the risks associated with the vaccine rollouts?Considering the gains seen in equities since last March, there is plenty of market risk dependent on the efficacy and speed of the vaccine roll out. Mutated strains of the virus may emerge which are more resistant to current vaccines, and the population may not be inoculated fast enough to drive consumer confidence and spending up. As an insurance against this uncertainty, governments around the world have shown a willingness to take pre-emptive action to stimulate demand and protect against downside risk to the economy. For instance, following the $900 billion pandemic relief package already legislated by US Congress in December, President Biden announced the $1.9 trillion “American Rescue Plan” in January. While not all elements of this latest fiscal package will end up in law, $1,400 stimulus cheques to qualified individuals (on top of $600 payments passed in December) and more generous unemployment benefits should pass the now Democrat-controlled Congress(6). This front-loaded boost to take-home pay increases the likelihood that consumer spending can recover quickly to boost growth. Consensus forecasts are for US real GDP to grow by 4.1% in 2021, which if realised would be the fastest growth rate for 21 years(7).It is largely because of the vaccine rollout, stimulus measures and economic recovery that analysts continue to remain upbeat about company earnings. The consensus range for MSCI ACWI Earning Per Share annual growth has held remarkably steady at around 28% and 16% for 2021 and 2022 respectively, since the summer(8). This fundamental support suggests that equities can continue to rally even during the pandemic and lockdowns.  Do you think inflation is likely to rise? And if so, will it be a boost for “value” markets such as the UK & emerging markets?The short answer is yes. The direction of inflation, and particularly in the US, is likely to be an important determinant for relative equity market performance. US implied inflation (derived from the Treasury market) has swung round from 0.5% per annum over the next 10 years last March to 2.1% currently, the highest rate since late 2018(9). This is consistent with the Fed’s policy change last summer to encourage higher inflation. The macro backdrop appears a little more inflationary. Given high involuntary household savings rates from fiscal stimulus, pent-up cyclical consumer demand could absorb slack in the economy, as a result of the pandemic easing relatively quickly. Structurally, the downward pressure on wages (and inflation) from the last couple of decades may be reversing too. China’s working age population started to fall in 2011, reducing the size of the global labour pool, and this could lift future wage rates(10). Furthermore, manufacturers may bring more costly production closer to home to avoid COVID-related supply chain issues. If realised, this de-globalization could raise future inflation rates. We see investment implications from higher US inflation expectations. Looking at data going back to 2009, we find that “value” orientated equity regions like the UK and emerging markets typically outperform their global peers in a rising US inflationary environment. These markets benefit from their relatively high exposure to value sectors, such as energy, materials and industrials, and low valuations. Is there anything else to recommend these markets?Both the UK and emerging markets are also likely to profit from an easing in idiosyncratic risks. UK equity valuations should improve following the Free Trade Agreement in goods agreed with the EU at the end of last year, while emerging markets should gain from an expected multilateral approach by the US over trade policy under a Biden administration, compared to Donald Trump’s policy to impose ad-hoc trade tariffs on China. The UK and emerging markets fit into our “Loving Unloved Stocks” theme for 2021. Sources:1,2,3,5,8,9 Refinitiv Datastream, 20 January 20214 Pantheon Macroeconomics, The weekly UK Economic Monitor, 18 January 20215 HSBC Global Research, US Fiscal Policy report, 20 January 20217 Bloomberg, 20 January 202110 The Inflation Outlook, Raymond James, 19 January 2021*** Head to our website to read the full episode show notes smithandwilliamson.com This episode was recorded on 26/01/2021Capital at risk. Please remember the value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and investors may not receive back the original amount invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.This S&W The Pulse podcast is of a general nature and is not a substitute for professional advice. No responsibility can be accepted for the consequences of any action taken or refrained from as a result of what is said. The views expressed are not necessarily those of the presenter or of Smith & Williamson or any of its affiliates. No reproduction of this podcast may be made in whole or in part for professional or recreational purposes. No action should be taken based on this podcast and we accept no liability if we change your views on any of the subjects mentioned. Smith & Williamson Investment Management LLPAuthorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered No 580531

The U.K. has kept a lid on its unemployment rate so far during the coronavirus pandemic but, scratch beneath the surface, there are worrying trends that will likely see the jobless total soaring by the end of the year.As department store Debenhams announced another 2,500 job losses on Tuesday, official figures showed that the number of people in paid employment in the April-June quarter fell by the most since the global financial crisis more than a decade go.That didn’t lead to an automatic increase in the unemployment rate, which held steady at a historically low 3.9% as workers need to be actively looking for a job to be counted as jobless. But as a key government salary support package is being phased out, there are concerns that the number of people officially labeled as unemployed could at least double toward the 3 million mark last struck in the 1980s.“Some parts of the economy are undoubtedly showing great resilience but clearly there are going to be bumpy months ahead and a long, long way to go,” Prime Minister Boris Johnson said.The stable jobless rate is largely due to a government salary support scheme that will end in October, a cliff-edge moment that many economists think will lead to an almost immediate doubling in unemployment.Under the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme, the government has been paying a large chunk of the salaries of workers retained rather than fired. Some 1.2 million employers have taken advantage of the program during the lockdown to furlough 9.6 million people at a cost to the government of 33.8 billion pounds ($44 billion).The government has started phasing out the furlough program, with firms now having to cover some of the costs of the plan. The government has said it will end the program in October on the grounds it gives “false hope” to furloughed workers while at the same time limiting their prospects of getting new jobs as their skills fade.While admitting that not every job can be saved, Treasury chief Rishi Sunak said Tuesday's figures said the support measures, have helped to “safeguard millions of jobs and livelihoods that could otherwise have been lost.”The big question is how many of those furloughed workers are being kept on as lockdown restrictions across sectors, including retail and hospitality, have been eased, and how many will be kept on the payroll after the October cut-off date. It’s a tough call for firms facing a historic cash crunch following one of the deepest economic slumps ever recorded in the U.K.“A wide range of indicators suggest that job losses will crystallize from August, when employers must start to cover some of the costs of furloughed staff,” said Samuel Tombs, chief U.K. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.In a sign of the weakness of the U.K.'s labor market, employment fell in the April to June quarter by 220,000, its biggest three-month decline since the 2009 recession. Figures due for release on Wednesday are set to show the economy contracted by nearly 25% in the second quarter of the year from the previous three-month period.The statistics agency also reported that the number of people on payroll in the U.K. fell 81,000 in July to 28.27 million. The number of people coming off the payroll since March is now 730,000, with the falls in employment greatest among younger and older workers.The number of firms cutting jobs has accelerated in the past month or two with big companies like British Airways and Rolls Royce announcing big layoffs, in addition to Tuesday's news from Debenhams.Unions are urging the government to at least extend the furlough scheme to sectors still suffering from lockdown restrictions.“The alarm bells couldn’t be ringing any louder,” said Frances O’Grady, general secretary of the Trades Union Congress.

Data this week has been quite a mixed bag with some of the encouraging data being more encouraging than I expected, and some of the negative data being more negative than expected. “Sustained outright declines in new cases are not that far off” [Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics], but right now we are just watching the new case curve peak, and disparate results in different states makes it all tough to analyze. The chart and information I provide at the top of our FACT section below is, I think, the most important part of today's missive. Fundamentally, these three realities have all held up incredibly true: (1) Case growth has been mostly amongst the young and healthier, and (2) Treatments have substantially improved since March/April. I was fascinated to see that Sweden had 132 new cases countrywide yesterday, while Australia had 468. It is just an interesting contrast between a vigorous lock-down and shut-out of visitors (Australia), versus the encouragement of a herd immunity build-up. Sweden's new cases and mortalities are now so low that all eyes are really on whether or not they get a sort of “second wave.” The chairman of the Scientific Advisory Committee of the National Institute of Epidemiology in India stated yesterday that Dehli, India is fast approaching herd immunity, another massive world city showing huge positivity in seroprevalence tests and therefore a large part of the population already infected. Major League Baseball season officially kicks off tonight, and while fans are not allowed for now even with masks and distancing (no comment), it is symbolically and substantively delightful that the Yankees will be teeing off on the Washington Nationals tonight. I expect big ratings. Really big. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Business Day TV — During the first quarter the US economy suffered its most severe contraction in more than a decade as the country introduced lockdowns to slow the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. Business Day TV analysed the GDP print with Ian Shepherdson from Pantheon Macroeconomics.

Labour's manifesto commitments to taxing the high earners shows they are moving back to the world of high spending and dislike of wealth creators, says Siobhan Benita, LibDem Candidate and shadow cabinet member for London. She tells Bloomberg Westminster's Anna Edwards and Roger Hearing, that the Liberal Democrats believe in encouraging entrepreneurs. Also: Samuel Tombs, chief U.K. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics crunches the figures from the manifestos and tracks sterling against the latest opinion polls

Even if the trade talks are settled, long-term friction will remain between China and the United States. China has an industrial policy which will see it strive to make more advanced products, such as aircraft and medical devices. The US wants to keep selling these kinds of high-value manufactured goods to China. It remains a fundamental issue for the two world economic powers. FT Alphaville's Brendan Greeley speaks first with Brad Stetser, the former US Treasury economist and China watcher, and then is joined by Colby Smith to hear from Freya Beamish, China expert at Pantheon Macroeconomics. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics pulls back the curtain on the economy with POLITICO’s Ben White. What they see is... not great. Plus, which household good has borne the brunt of the tariff fight with China? Hint: Here’s hoping your washing machine didn’t just break.

On What'd You Miss This Week, Joe, Scarlet and Julia spoke with Ed Keon, Managing Director at QMA, to talk about the name calling with the U.S.'s biggest trade partner, Canada, and why the markets weren't roiled by all the G-7 drama. Bloomberg Opinion columnist Joe Nocera also joined to talk about to talk about why the Justice Department wasted their chance going after the AT&T and Time Warner deal -- creating a big setback for antitrust and destroying any hope of going after big tech anytime soon. Then Ian Shepherdson, Chief Economist and Founder, at Pantheon Macroeconomics came on to discuss where we will be a year from now if unemployment continues to fall and why the Fed likes when people get a raise, but not too big of one. 

The FCA is warning about a form of online high-risk trading which some firms are illegally offering in the UK. Binary options trading involves betting on whether anything that can be measured in financial terms, like a currency or share index, will rise or fall below a specified price at a certain time. The FCA began regulating last month which means it's now illegal to sell those trades in the UK without its authorisation. Money Box listener Penny lost nearly £17,000 with an unauthorised firm but what can the FCA do in future to protect people like Penny? Christopher Woolard FCA Director of Strategy and Competition explains. The Department of Work and Pensions has confirmed that all Personal Independence Payment (PIP) claims will be reviewed. It follows a Government decision not to challenge a court ruling that said changes to PIP were unfair to people with mental health conditions. Guest Paul Farmer, Chief Executive of the mental health charity Mind. Interest-only mortgage holders are being urged to contact their lenders after a financial regulator review found too many people avoid planning how they intend to clear the underlying debt when the mortgage ends. It comes as Bank of England figures show December mortgage approvals reached a three year low. Why? Guests: Jane King, Independent Financial Adviser with Ash-Ridge Private Finance and Samuel Tombs, Chief UK Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. Presenter: Paul Lewis Producer: Charmaine Cozier Editor: Jim Frank.

Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics' chief economist, says Italy leaving the Eurozone would be an "end of the world event," while TS Lombard Research's chief economist, Shweta Singh, says things won't dramatically change after the Italian referendum. Then, Stephen Schork, editor of the Schork Report, says the OPEC deal is great news for U.S. producers. Finally, Anthony Scaramucci, co-managing partner of SkyBridge Capital and an adviser to Donald Trump, says Trump will use trade tariffs as a last resort. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Neel Kashkari, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, says that politics never comes up in Fed meetings. Prior to that, Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics' chief economist, says fiscal stimulus is the wrong thing at the wrong time. Then, Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Barclays' head of macro research, says under a Donald Trump economy, economic drag from trade barriers should be more than offset by economic stimulus. Finally, Sam Stovall, S&P's head of U.S. equity strategy, says returns average 15 percent in years of a GOP government. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

HSBC's Steven Major says we should expect lower yields to last longer. Eurasia Group's Callum Henderson says the weaker sterling is a positive bias for markets. David Herro, partner and chief investment officer at Harris Associates, says Credit Suisse shares are too cheap and expects a consolidation in banking as a result of regulation. Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, says the sterling is set to drop substantially. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

HSBC's Steven Major says we should expect lower yields to last longer. Eurasia Group's Callum Henderson says the weaker sterling is a positive bias for markets. David Herro, partner and chief investment officer at Harris Associates, says Credit Suisse shares are too cheap and expects a consolidation in banking as a result of regulation. Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, says the sterling is set to drop substantially.

Pantheon Macroeconomics' Ian Shepherdson weighs in on conflicting signals coming from the Fed on Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keene and Michael McKee. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Pantheon Macroeconomics' Ian Shepherdson says that a further decline in the U.S. unemployment rate is more or less inevitable. He joins Tom Keene and Michael McKee on Bloomberg Surveillance. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Pantheon Macroeconomics' Ian Shepherdson says that millions of Americans with part-time jobs want full-time jobs, but can't find the work. He joins Tom Keene and Michael McKee on Bloomberg Surveillance. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

"From Silk to Silicon" author Jeffrey Garten shares the story of globalization through ten lives. Pantheon Macroeconomics' Ian Shepherdson takes the pulse of the U.S. economy. They join Tom Keene and Michael McKee on Bloomberg Surveillance. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com