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MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome back, Honte investments founder and CIO Alex Gurevich. They'll discuss whether inflation will be persistent, Currencies, Precious Metals, Energy Markets, and more. https://bit.ly/3JxA3UP ⚫ Follow Alex on X: @agurevich23 ⚫ Find out More: honteinv.com
#Deflation #Fed #Rates #Fiscal #Coal #China #Iran #Venezuela Access AI-powered markets forecasts for free with CI Markets Free. Sign up here: https://completeintel.com/markets Get the transcript hereWelcome to the latest episode of "The Week Ahead" with your host, @Tony Nash / @tonynashnerd! We've assembled a fabulous lineup featuring Alex Gurevich, Tracy Shuchart and Albert Marko. Alex / @agurevich23 on his 2023 thesis about the coming deflationary spiral titled “Real Rates Tsunami.” He talks us through why he believes we are on a path to deflation, which will then be followed by a rise in unemployment and, possibly, recession. He talks through global factors like China's current deflationary environment and the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI).Tracy / @chigrl talks about the rise in US coal exports and how emerging and middle income markets are including more coal in their power generation mix. Part of this is due to higher interest rates, which impose higher costs in green power generation projects. She focuses on India and Narendra Modi's use of coal for energy security.Albert / @amlivemon talks us through the US government's retaliatory actions toward Iran after 3 US service people were killed in attacks in Jordan. Is the US government's slow deliberation good for this situation or does it make the US look unprepared? He then talks through US sanctions on Venezuela and the potential impact on crude prices in the US.------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is the 98th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what's coming in markets.
MacroVoices Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome back, Honte investments fund manager Alex Gurevich. Erik and Alex discuss the reasons why Alex is still committed to the long duration trade long-term, and why that trade hasn't been performing recently. https://bit.ly/3RW7Hcj Alex's Market Note: https://bit.ly/3FhA9xH Check out Energy Transition Crisis on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@EnergyTransitionCrisis1 Download Big Picture Trading Chartbook
Interview recorded - 19th of April, 2023On todays episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure to welcome back Alex Gurevich, During our conversation we spoke about the inflation tied is going back out due to recessionary trends, how this could lead to a deflationary annihilation, how this could benefit bonds and other global trends Alex is currently watching. I hope you enjoy!0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Current macroeconomic trends Alex is paying attention to?2:15 - What caused the inflation and why is it decreasing?4:35 - Why will commercial real estate be annihilated?6:10 - Could things get worse in the economy later this year?8:25 - Will the FED have higher policy for longer?12:05 - How will markets react to FED policy?14:45 - Data points to watch for recession warning?18:05 - What would a massive deflation mean for markets & earnings?19:45 - Any assets that Alex is watching for recession?22:25 - What bonds is Alex watching?24:30 - Any other key drivers Alex is watching?26:25 - What is happening in Japan?30:00 - One message to take away from conversation?31:00 - New normal or back to pre-covid?Alex Gurevich is the Founder and CIO of HonTe Advisors, LLC. More recently, Alex has transformed his very successful family office into a global macro strategy suitable for institutional investors. He is the author of the Wall Street Journal bestselling book The Trades of March 2020 and The Next Perfect Trade which articulate his rigorous trade selection and investment process. Alex was born and raised in St. Petersburg, Russia, and earned his PhD in mathematics from the University of Chicago.Alex Gurevich - Twitter - https://twitter.com/agurevich23LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/alex-gurevich-23a358105Website - https://honteinv.com/WTFinance -Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfniTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas
The U.S. added 311,000 jobs in February while unemployment rose from 3.4% to 3.6%. That quickly became background noise though, as trouble in the banking sector sparked a massive selloff in yields. It didn't take long for U.S. equities to follow suit. Ash Bennington is joined by Warren Pies, co-founder of 3Fourteen Research, to discuss whether regulators shutting down Silicon Valley Bank is a sign of wider contagion in the sector, and what the Fed will do next. As Warren sees it, timing is everything.Plus, we'll hear from Alex Gurevich on how central banks are monopolistic entities just like Apple. Catch that entire interview here: https://rvtv.io/3ZBbjl1 and you can find more of Warren's work here: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
All eyes are on tomorrow's jobs report as stocks struggle to hold their footing into the weekend. Maggie Lake is joined by James Davolos, portfolio manager at Horizon Kinetics, to discuss whether investors should continue allocating with another inflation wave in mind. Are the inflation winners still working, or is it time to look elsewhere? Plus, we hear from Alex Gurevich on why he remains steadfast in his view that deflation is on the way. Check out the entire How to Unf*ck Your Future series here: https://rvtv.io/3yfCpBR and find more of James' work here: https://horizonkinetics.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
The Mother of All Bull Markets in Treasuries with Alex Gurevich⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Leave a five star review and comment here: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-acid-capitalist-podcasts/id1511187978
Have some project you really want to do? Why you should put it in motion today! Also thoughts on worldbuilding in Fantasy, monetary systems, making mistakes and fixing them, and how pitching never gets easier.You can find all the FaRoFeb events here https://farofeb.com/events-and-giveaways/ and the giveaway I mention is here https://kingsumo.com/g/pujmm3/farofeb-2023-week-one-giveawayPreorder ROGUE FAMILIAR here https://jeffekennedy.com/rogue-familiarRUBY is out now! https://jeffekennedy.com/ruby FIVE GOLDEN RINGS is now available here: https://jeffekennedy.com/five-golden-rings SAPPHIRE is available here: https://jeffekennedy.com/sapphire and PLATINUM is available here https://jeffekennedy.com/platinum.THE LONG NIGHT OF THE RADIANT STAR, a midwinter holiday fantasy romance in the Heirs of Magic series, now available!! https://jeffekennedy.com/the-long-night-of-the-radiant-starSHADOW WIZARD, Book One in Renegades of Magic, continuing the epic tale begun in DARK WIZARD. https://jeffekennedy.com/shadow-wizard is out now! Including in audiobook!Interested in Author Coaching from me? Information here: https://jeffekennedy.com/author-coachingROGUE'S PARADISE is out (https://jeffekennedy.com/rogue-s-paradise). Buy book 1, ROGUE'S PAWN, here! (https://jeffekennedy.com/rogue-s-pawn) and book 2, ROGUE'S POSSESSION, here! (https://jeffekennedy.com/rogue-s-possession).If you want to support me and the podcast, click on the little heart or follow this link (https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/jeffekennedy).You can watch this podcast on YouTube here https://youtu.be/MuowkqErQ2USign up for my newsletter here! (https://landing.mailerlite.com/webforms/landing/r2y4b9)Support the show
MacroVoices Erik Townsend welcomes Honte investments fund manager Alex Gurevich to the show. They discuss this week's FOMC statement and press briefing, inflation, crude oil, interest rates, equity markets, and precious metals. https://bit.ly/40pDvrx Download Big Picture Trading chartbook
While the world's putative Illuminati gather in Davos, the S&P fails once more to escape its bear market structure. This in spite of some frisson over Netflix earnings and yet more bloodletting across Big Tech. Meanwhile Finance Twitter has begun to coalesce around a familiar narrative: over the next several years Emerging Market Equities will outperform the U.S. Thus we revisit one of our favorite topics. Will the emerging markets ever emerge? But this time, we turn to ChapGPT for help.And finally woebegone Bitcoin and Ethereum bounce back-ish. We discuss why, according to Alex Gurevich, if Bitcoin is Digital Gold then Ethereum is Digital Copper.
Alex Gurevich is a Managing Director at Javelin Venture Partners, an early-stage VC fund with portfolio companies like MasterClass, Thumbtack, Carbon Health, Niantic Labs, and many more. Alex serves on multiple boards of startups such as MasterClass, Thumbtack, Pair Eyewear, Mythical Games, and HitRecord (founded by actor Joseph Gordon-Levitt) amongst others. Prior to joining Javelin, Alex worked at DFJ and was the first employee at ooma (NYSE: OOMA). You can learn more about: 1. How to identify and invest in successful startups like MasterClass and Thumbtack2. How to build and curate great deal flow as a VC 3. How to raise funding as a startup Check out our brand new YouTube Video Podcast! https://www.SmartVenturePod.com IG/Twitter/FB @GraceGongGG LinkedIn:@GraceGong YouTube: https://bit.ly/gracegongyoutube Join the SVP fam with your host Grace Gong. In each episode, we are going to have conversations with some of the top investors, super star founders, as well as well known tech executives in the silicon valley. We will have a coffee chat with them to learn their ways of thinking and actionable tips on how to build or invest in a successful company. ===================== Brought to you by: https://momentonft.com
Celebrating the release today of WINGS UNFURLED by Rebecca Gomez Farrell and A HARD DAY FOR A HANGOVER by Miss Darynda Jones! Otherwise I'm talking about being gentle with ourselves and what that means.You can find WINGS UNFURLED by Rebecca Gomez Farrell here (https://rebeccagomezfarrell.com/2022/12/06/wings-unfurled-blog-tour/) and A HARD DAY FOR A HANGOVER by Miss Darynda Jones here (https://darynda.com/books/a-hard-day-for-a-hangover).FIVE GOLDEN RINGS is now available here: https://jeffekennedy.com/five-golden-ringsTHE LONG NIGHT OF THE RADIANT STAR, a midwinter holiday fantasy romance in the Heirs of Magic series, now available!! https://jeffekennedy.com/the-long-night-of-the-radiant-starSHADOW WIZARD, Book One in Renegades of Magic, continuing the epic tale begun in DARK WIZARD. https://jeffekennedy.com/shadow-wizard is out now! Including in audiobook!Interested in Author Coaching from me? Information here: https://jeffekennedy.com/author-coachingROGUE'S PARADISE is out (https://jeffekennedy.com/rogue-s-paradise). Buy book 1, ROGUE'S PAWN, here! (https://jeffekennedy.com/rogue-s-pawn) and book 2, ROGUE'S POSSESSION, here! (https://jeffekennedy.com/rogue-s-possession).If you want to support me and the podcast, click on the little heart or follow this link (https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/jeffekennedy).You can watch this podcast on YouTube here https://youtu.be/F2Z1-BkuUxcSign up for my newsletter here! (https://landing.mailerlite.com/webforms/landing/r2y4b9)Support the show
Today sees the re-release of my Kinky Christmas Caribbean Vacation, FIVE GOLDEN RINGS! I'm talking about where I've been, what a writing retreat can do to clear the mind, refill the well, and provide a creative reset.FIVE GOLDEN RINGS is now available here: https://jeffekennedy.com/five-golden-ringsTHE LONG NIGHT OF THE RADIANT STAR, a midwinter holiday fantasy romance in the Heirs of Magic series, now available!! https://jeffekennedy.com/the-long-night-of-the-radiant-starSHADOW WIZARD, Book One in Renegades of Magic, continuing the epic tale begun in DARK WIZARD. https://jeffekennedy.com/shadow-wizard is out now! Including in audiobook!Interested in Author Coaching from me? Information here: https://jeffekennedy.com/author-coachingROGUE'S PARADISE is out (https://jeffekennedy.com/rogue-s-paradise). Buy book 1, ROGUE'S PAWN, here! (https://jeffekennedy.com/rogue-s-pawn) and book 2, ROGUE'S POSSESSION, here! (https://jeffekennedy.com/rogue-s-possession).If you want to support me and the podcast, click on the little heart or follow this link (https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/jeffekennedy).You can watch this podcast on YouTube here https://youtu.be/F2Z1-BkuUxcSign up for my newsletter here! (https://landing.mailerlite.com/webforms/landing/r2y4b9)Support the show
Alex is the founder and CIO of HonTe Investments, and he returns to Market Champions to give an update on how he's thinking about where the world is headed, why he thinks we have a >50% probability of seeing negative rates by 2024, ways he's thinking of playing it, insights into his risk management process and more!
Founder and CIO of HonTe Investments Alex Gurevich describes his view on the current state of the global economy and financial markets, which includes a looming global recession brought on by demand destruction not seen since the 1930s. Sign up for our free weekly newsletter at https://www.JayMartin.club
Alex Gurevich is the founder and Chief Investment Officer of HonTe Investments, a Bay Area-based investment management firm, and the author of two books — The Next Perfect Trade and Wall Street Journal bestseller The Trades of March 2020. Gurevich led HonTe's macro strategy in 2020 to rank second by net return according to BarclayHedge—and in the top ten of emerging managers in all strategies by Eurekahedge. Gurevich has over twenty years of trading experience and was hailed by the Wall Street Journal in 2003 as the star trader of JPMorgan, where he served as Managing Director responsible for global macro trading. In this episode, Gurevich shares his divergent views, which are that rates are most likely going to zero, and deflation — not inflation — is the concern. 0:00 Intro 0:31 St. Petersburg to America 1:38 Early interest in Wall Street 2:53 Poker and investing 4:39 Psychology of trading 8:37 Turning HonTe's 2020 trading success into a book 12:33 Extreme side of the deflation camp 13:33 Two words: Policy lag 17:04 Outlook for rates 20:22 Implications of deflation 24:15 Why is there a shortage of dollars? 27:10 Scenario for deeper a longer recession, global depression 30:59 Oil and energy pivotal to the deflation story 33:14 Why Japan might be in the best position 34:34 What the inflation camp is missing 37:58 Focus on the Fed 42:11 Thesis of deflationary depression and implications for a portfolio 44:50 Why bonds will have more upside 46:00 What would alter or reinforce the thesis on deflation? 48:12 Final thoughts
MacroVoices welcomes HonTe Investments founder Alex Gurevich to the show where Alex shares why he agrees with the view that the macro risks are quite substantial now and why he thinks we're headed toward a deflationary depression.https://bit.ly/3RN2Bv4 Download Alex's Charts: https://bit.ly/3fPgCLB Download Big Picture Trading chartbook
We had so much great content from our episode with Alex Gurevich we had to release it into two parts. In this installment, Alex establishes his meta rules for trading and explains his current views on foreign exchange and global equities markets. Never miss an episode of Next Big Trade - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
We had so much great content from our episode with Alex Gurevich we had to release it into two parts. In this installment, Alex establishes his meta rules for trading and explains his current views on foreign exchange and global equities markets.
Here's a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. On this riveting episode of The Next Big Trade, Alex Gurevich, the founder and chief investment officer of HonTe Investments, joins host Harry Melandri to explain how he's playing the long game and why max-duration bonds are his vehicle of choice to ride out prevailing macroeconomic and geopolitical crosswinds and a potential global downturn. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
On this riveting episode of The Next Big Trade, Alex Gurevich, the founder and chief investment officer of HonTe Investments, joins host Harry Melandri to explain how he's playing the long game and why max-duration bonds are his vehicle of choice to ride out prevailing macroeconomic and geopolitical crosswinds and a potential global downturn.
Alex Gurevich is Founder and CIO of HonTe Advisors, a global macro hedge fund based in San Francisco.Alex was hailed as J.P. Morgan's star trader in 2003, where he served as managing director of Global Macro trading. And following remarkable outperformance in 2020, HonTe's net return was ranked second in the world by Barclays.Alex's latest book, ‘The trades of March 2020', was a Wall Street Journal best-seller, chronicling the collapse of financial markets during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Alex explains how his fund not only survived but thrived, during this period, offering unparalleled insight into the command centre of a macro hedge fund, as stock markets plunged 35%.Alex finishes by offering his outlook for recession, US equities and themes to watch in 2022. Enjoy!A link to Alex's first book, 'The Next Perfect Trade': https://www.amazon.co.uk/Next-Perfect-Trade-Magic-Necessity/dp/1456625616/And 'The Trades of March 2020': https://www.amazon.com/Trades-March-2020-against-Uncertainty/dp/1544525133/ Thanks to Cofruition for consulting on and producing the podcast. Want further Opto insights? Check out our daily newsletter: https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en-gb/opto/newsletter------------------Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.CMC Markets does not endorse or offer opinions on the trading strategies used by the author. Their trading strategies do not guarantee any return and CMC Markets shall not be held responsible for any loss that you may incur, either directly or indirectly, arising from any investment based on any information contained herein for any loss that you may incur, either directly or indirectly, arising from any investment based on any information contained herein.
Markets rebounded sharply Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average on track for its first positive trading session after six consecutive down days. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said engineering a soft landing would involve “some pain,” as the central bank remains on track for 50-basis-point rate hikes in June and July. U.S. consumer sentiment fell to its lowest in more than a decade, as April data from the University of Michigan survey showed a drop from 65.2 to 59.1. The average per-gallon price of gasoline hit a new high and continues to weigh on the minds of Americans. And the geopolitical situation promises more constraints on key energy and food supplies. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro, joins Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, to discuss the energy market's impact on the broader market. We also hear from Alex Gurevich, who says there's a 0% chance of a soft landing. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3NfvoGC. Watch the full interview featuring Alex Gurevich and Raoul Pal here: https://rvtv.io/3w9TH38. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Bloomberg Radio host Barry Ritholtz speaks with Alex Gurevich, the founder and chief investment officer of San Francisco-based global macro investment firm HonTe Advisors. Gurevich, who has more than 20 years of trading experience, formerly ran global macro at J.P. Morgan; he earned his Ph.D. in mathematics from the University of Chicago. His most recent book, "The Trades of March 2020: A Shield against Uncertainty," was published in paperback this year. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
For this episode of the Planet MicroCap Podcast, I spoke with Alex Gurevich, the Founder and Chief Investment Officer at HonTe Advisors. Alex's new book, "The Trades of March", which is currently on sale, focuses on how his decision making evolved throughout the on-set of the COVID-19 crisis and beyond. Crises are inevitable, unfortunately, we're in the middle of a horrible one right now with the humanitarian crisis and despicable invasion of Ukraine. Alex discusses managing the psychological turmoil of trading through crises, and doing one's best to overcome irrational thinking. I am certain you will find a strategy or two that can help your investing process. For more information about HonTe Advisors, please visit: https://honteinv.com/ You can Follow Alex Gurevich on Twitter @agurevich23: https://twitter.com/agurevich23 Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by AlphaSense, an expert interview transcript library that integrates AI-generated call summaries and NLP search technology so their clients can quickly pinpoint the most critical insights. Start your FREE trial on their website: https://streamrg.co/PMC Quartr, their mission is to change the way people look at Investor Relations, and create a completely new bridge between companies and stakeholders. Visit your app store of choice to try it out, and that's Q-U-A-R-T-R. For more information, please visit: https://quartr.com/ Planet MicroCap Podcast is on YouTube! All archived episodes and each new episode will be posted on the SNN Network YouTube channel. I've provided the link in the description if you'd like to subscribe. You'll also get the chance to watch all our Video Interviews with management teams, educational panels from the conference, as well as expert commentary from some familiar guests on the podcast. Subscribe here: http://bit.ly/1Q5Yfym Click here to rate and review the Planet MicroCap Podcast The Planet MicroCap Podcast is brought to you by SNN Incorporated, publishers of StockNewsNow.com, The Official MicroCap News Source, and the MicroCap Review Magazine, the leading magazine in the MicroCap market. You can Follow the Planet MicroCap Podcast on Twitter @BobbyKKraft
In this episode Hari is joined by Alex Gurevich, author, PhD in mathematics and founder of HonTe Investments, to discuss how he values bonds differently to many investors today, how to build a balanced portfolio, the many ways to loose money when buying an option (even if you are "kinda" right) as well as how he makes decisions as a trader, how to manage stress and keep a healthy lifestyle as a hedge fund manager and what the future of the global financial markets may look like. ---- In this episode, we discuss: How different types of bonds are valuated The pattern in how many times the FED tends to move rates, once they begin Why Rate cycles are getting shorter (in time) Why Alex believes that the FED should not raise rates before reducing their balance sheet Alex playbook for the Ukrainian crisis: Oil could collapse to $40 and Rates could go back to zero How your performance can end up defining who you are (if you are not careful) The synchronisation of the central banks and how the future might look for the global financial market ---- Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/Ultimate (here). And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/flavor (here). Learn more about the Trend Barometer https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/ (here). Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu (iTunes) or https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW (Spotify) so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Hari on https://twitter.com/HariPKrishnan2 (Twitter). Follow Alex on https://twitter.com/agurevich23?lang=da (Twitter). Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:42 - Introduction to Alex and his background 07:20 - How Alex think about bonds 16:37 - Have bonds become more important since 2008? 18:15 - Making decisions as a trader, and handling victories and defeats 28:01 - Why did Alex go into dividend futures during Covid crisis? 33:41 - What Alex would have done if the FED had not stepped in during the Covid crisis 35:40 - How manager can feel that their performance defines who they are 41:27 - The synchronization of central banks and the affect on rates 48:59 - What's going to happen with the FED going forward? 54:05 - Rounding off and overview of Alex's books 59:38 - Thank you for listening Copyright © 2022 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ebooks/ (Click Here) 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I'm really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/ (Click Here) 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over...
This week’s FOMC meeting is probably the most highly anticipated meeting in years. The Founder and Chief Investment Officer of HonTe, Alex Gurevich, joins me to discuss what traders and investors should expect from the Fed in this meeting and in the rest of 2022. We discuss how traders should be positioned in the market […]
This week’s FOMC meeting is probably the most highly anticipated meeting in years. The Founder and Chief Investment Officer of HonTe, Alex Gurevich, joins me to discuss what traders and investors should expect from the Fed in this meeting and in the rest of 2022. We discuss how traders should be positioned in the market […]
We were joined this week by none other than Alex Gurevich, founder and CIO of HonTe Investments, author of The Next Perfect Trade, and more recently The Trades of March 2020 – A Shield Against Uncertainty, and a legend in the macro hedge fund industry. Our conversation included topics such as: His background in math, and as a competitive chess, GO and poker player An analytical approach that was well-suited for a Wall Street trader Skin in the game – he wanted to be a trader from the start, not an analyst Typical patterns in financial markets tend to repeat themselves much more frequently than most investors realize Employment and energy prices as strong leading indicators for a recession Interest rate momentum and a bearish outlook for equities How tighter monetary policy may be the wrong tool to fight inflation caused by higher energy prices and supply chain disruptions (and could backfire) Political pressures, the Fed, and the increasing likelihood of a policy error An investment approach focused on major global asset classes and big picture thinking Seeking opportunities with asymmetric odds Precious metals are less about inflation and more about liquidity A risky moment for the global reserve currency How to protect against low probability scenarios that can pose devastatingly negative outcomes Creative hedging Avoiding unnecessary complexity when expressing views – vanilla is usually better than exotic options Time horizons, and differentiating risk management for a trade vs portfolio holding Sizing, stress analysis and conviction – why stop losses are not always the best way to manage risk This is “ReSolve's Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
SUMMARY: Discover what it takes to successfully trade as uncertainty in the economy rises. Alex Gurevich joins Andy to discuss his trading strategy during the pandemic. SHOW NOTES: 5:10: How Has The Pandemic Changed Trading? 8:09: How Was The Market Foreshadowing The Drop In March 2020? 15:03: What Is The Difference Between Traders And Investors? 19:35: What Is The Struggle Of Insurance? 22:19: What Are The Lessons From The Pandemic Market Drop Of 2020? 27:12: What Can The Fed Do About Inflation? 30:49: Could The Market Drop To Pre-Pandemic Levels? 39:44: How Do Traders Develop A Winning Style?
Today Bennett and Cas are joined by the portfolio manager and chief strategist for Simplify Asset Management, Michael Green (on Twitter @profplum99). In one of our most wide-ranging discussions, we had the opportunity to pick Mike's brain on what inflation means for the U.S. and the world, how the Fed should respond, the Canadian Trucker Convoy / Protest, and what all of it might mean for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general. Mike specifically mentions The Trades of March 2020, a book by Alex Gurevich, available here: https://www.amazon.com/Trades-March-2020-against-Uncertainty-ebook/dp/B09NX372KG This episode was recorded on Thursday, February 17th, 2022.
When it comes to financial markets, do narratives really matter? Or do patterns, the rhyme of bull runs and corrections, mark the true path of stocks and bonds? With Ukraine on the brink of war, inflation at 7.5% and consumer sentiment falling into the sea, all signs point to downside in the stock market. But do these themes actually predict anything? Narrative or not, the S&P index is repeating a pattern that it showcased in 2018 when the Fed tightened, inciting a sharp sell-off. This makes it more likely than not that a similar sell-off is just beginning. For us, it is time to hedge that downside in the guise of our old nemesis: SPXS. As the great Jim Bianco put it, the Fed must now make a choice. Stem inflation or let the market melt up higher. It can not do both. And the political tide is moving inexorably in the direction of everyday Americans at the expense of wealthy elites.Not that any of that actually solves the root problem, as Alex Gurevich points out. Inflation is a symptom of supply shocks as much as it is excess liquidity. Stretch this out on the horizon to 2023, and we might actually be tightening into an inverted yield curve and a recession. But those are problems for another year.
Alex Gurevich, CIO of Honte Investments, joins Jack Farley to share his learnings from running a large macro hedge fund during the gut-wrenching volatility of March 2020. Using time-date transcripts and charts from his new book, “The Trades of March 2020: A Shield against Uncertainty,” Gurevich tells of the epic mispricings and gut-wrenching drawdowns that sent shockwaves through the global financial world. Gurevich provides insight on institutional macro products such as Eurodollar options, oil futures, currency swaps, and much more. Gurevich looks forward and tells Farley his current outlook on Fed Fund Futures, long-term bonds, as well as risk-assets (“beta”) such as equities and commodities. Alex Gurevich on Twitter: @agurevich23 Jack Farley's Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_ Link to Blockworks' newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
MacroVoices Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Alex Gurevich to the show to discuss inflation, the U.S. Dollar, bond yields and stock prices in the face of central bank tightening, before discussing his new book -The Trades of March 2020: A Shield Against Uncertainty. Link: https://bit.ly/3gF6Qc4
On this weeks podcast I am happy to have hosted Alex Gurevich, Founder and CEO of HonTe Investments and author of the recently released book " The Trades of March 2020 - A Shield Against Uncertainty". Buy the Book Here - Kindle - https://www.amazon.co.uk/Trades-March-2020-against-Uncertainty-ebook/dp/B09NX372KG/Paperback - https://www.amazon.co.uk/Trades-March-2020-against-Uncertainty/dp/1544525133/On the podcast we talk about the book, the underperformance of Global Macro Investing, can the FED afford to raise interest rates, why Alex did so well in the first week of March and the Beanie Baby Theory. I hope you enjoy!0:00 - Introduction0:22 - What was your influence for writing the book?4:50 - First hand account of a fund manager5:35 - What importance do you give to a shield? (Books title)12:25 - Underperformance of global macro and active investing over the past 12 years16:44 - What does a Investment Manager specialising in Long Horizon Discretionary Global Macro Trading? How is that strategy different to other strategies?21:50 - How had the markets changed in 2018?26:12 - Opinion on the FED hiking 3-4 times this year?31:28 - Can the FED afford to raise interest rates too high?32:43 - Why did you do so well in the first week of March 2020?35:33 - Don't stop when on a winning streak39:10 - What changed in the second and third week of March?42:09 - What is the Beanie Baby Theory?46:38 - What is one message you would like listeners to take away from the book?Alex Gurevich is the Founder and CIO of HonTe Advisors, LLC. Alex has been involved in trading for over 20 years; holding various roles on Wall Street that included the launch of fixed income derivative trading franchises as well as running the macro book at JP Morgan. More recently, Alex has transformed his very successful family office into a global macro strategy suitable for institutional investors. He is the author of The Next Perfect Trade, published in 2015, which articulates his rigorous trade selection and investment process. Alex was born and raised in St. Petersburg, Russia and earned his PhD in mathematics from the University of Chicago.Alex Gurevich - Twitter - https://twitter.com/agurevich23LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/alex-gurevich-23a358105/WTFinance - Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfnTikTok - https://vm.tiktok.com/ZMeUjj9xV/iTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/anthony-fatseas-761066103/Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas
This week, Patrick Ceresna and Kevin Muir welcome to the show Alex Gurevich to talk about his new book; The … Continue ReadingThe Trades of March 2020 (guests: Alex Gurevich, Kuppy & Mark Moss)
Have you ever wondered what happens in the command control of a global macro hedge fund when the US stock market plunges 35% in just three weeks? As tragic events unfolded around the ... The post The Trades of March 2020: Alex Gurevich appeared first on Author Hour.
Alex Gurevich is the founder and CIO of Honte Investments and formerly ran global macro at JP Morgan. Here he discusses building a macro process, sizing, where he sees opportunities, his take on the transitory narrative, and his new and upcoming book - The Trades of March, where he discusses how he traded (very profitably) through March. You can order the book here: https://www.amazon.com/Trades-March-2020-against-Uncertainty-ebook/dp/B09NX372KG
A report on my weekend, including why I didn't post yesterday, and dealing with the insurance marketplace, one of the great frustrations of being a self-employed writer, and balancing the good with the bad. Alex Gurevich's The Trades of March 2020: A Shield against Uncertainty is here (https://www.amazon.com/Trades-March-2020-against-Uncertainty-ebook/dp/B09NX372KG).You can order FIRE OF THE FROST here (https://jeffekennedy.com/fire-of-the-frost) and DARK WIZARD here (https://jeffekennedy.com/dark-wizard). You can preorder GREY MAGIC here (https://jeffekennedy.com/grey-magic) and THE STORM PRINCESS AND THE RAVEN KING here (https://jeffekennedy.com/the-storm-princess-and-the-raven-king).If you want to support me and the podcast, click on the little heart or follow this link (https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/jeffekennedy).You can watch this podcast on YouTube here (https://youtu.be/mQZchJwLgQQ).Sign up for my newsletter here! (https://landing.mailerlite.com/webforms/landing/r2y4b9)First Cup of Coffee is part of the Frolic Podcast Network. You can find more outstanding podcasts to subscribe to at Frolic.media/podcasts!Support the show (http://paypal.me/jeffekennedy)
Alex Gurevich is the Founder and CIO of HonTe Advisors, LLC. Alex has been involved in trading for over 20 years; holding various roles on Wall Street that included the launch of fixed income derivative trading franchises as well as running the macro book at JP Morgan. More recently, Alex has transformed his very successful family office into a global macro strategy suitable for institutional investors. He is the author of The Next Perfect Trade (2015) and soon to be published The Trades of March. Alex was born and raised in St. Petersburg, Russia and earned his PhD in mathematics from the University of Chicago. On this podcast we discuss: How games like chess, go and poker can help your investing Why sticking to take profits and stops is important Which markets follow valuation Alex's experience of trading COVID in March 2020 and lessons learned How to think about the current inflation debate US real yields could head lower Recent front-end sell is overdone Australia could be a stand-out market Dollar view Why equities don't follow the economic cycle Books that influenced Alex: Lord of the Rings (Tolkien), On Being Certain (Burton) Sci-fi book recommendations: Hyperion (Simmons), Ender's Game (Card), Rise of a Merchant Prince (Feist), The Dagger and the Coin (Abraham), Expanse (Corey)
Real Vision Live Replay: Here at Real Vision, we are exploring the question, "Is Everything a Bubble?" To many investors though, that question doesn't even begin to scratch the surface of what needs to be considered in the current environment. In this live interview, Alex Gurevich, founder and CIO of HonTe Advisors, joins Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal to discuss his position on what he thinks are the biggest questions facing investors today. Together, Gurevich and Pal will explore the future of risk-parity, the raging overvaluation debate and the role of interest rate momentum in equities, and the dichotomies in outcomes surrounding the dollar, precious metals, and interest rates. In addition, Gurevich will weigh in on the current discussion de jour around short-selling, how investors should think about navigating crisis vs. being positioned for the long-term, and why many are confusing features for bugs in the gold vs. bitcoin debate. Recorded on : 8 Feb 2021 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Our hosts sit down for a conversation with Alex Gurevich, Managing Director at Javelin Venture Partner, a seed and early-stage venture fund based in Silicon Valley built by founders, for founders.
MacroVoices Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Alex Gurevich to the show to discuss if the bond bull market is finally coming to an end, if the U.S. dollar is heading to a secular decline and perspectives on gold, equity markets & more. Then Jim Bianco from Bianco Research joins in the postgame segment to talk about the upcoming US Presidential Election.Link: https://bit.ly/3hR0qoo
Javelin's Alex Gurevich talks with us about investing in Masterclass, Thumbtack, Mythical Games and more. Alex also tells us why VCs should be getting performance reviews from their founders.
In this episode, I have a conversation with the super-smart and provocative thinker and investor, Alex Gurevich. In our wide-ranging chat, we discuss recent lessons learned, views on markets and risks to look out for. Specifically: 1. How not to become attached to one asset class or investment style. 2. How every crisis delivers something you’ve never seen before 3. Why crisis moments are when you should take most risk. 4. Why bonds can still be attractive even when yields are low 5. How keeping exposure to equities is still wise even if more declines are expected 6. Why Europe is a buy 7. How China has survived a major stress test 8. How to trade EM markets. 9. How supply chain failures are the biggest risk for the global economy.
Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Alex Gurevich to MacroVoices. They discuss the latest FOMC meeting, if it’s time to go long in the treasury market, outlook on gold and more. Link: http://bit.ly/2JC44nC
Honte Investments’ hedge fund manager Alex Gurevich was so intrigued by Erik’s interview with Grant Williams that he wanted to add a few thoughts of his own….Link: http://bit.ly/2kuLbtG
Fund manager Alex Gurevich is in the hot seat this month, pitching his “perfect trade” from 2014 long bonds and short the Euro. Alex explains why he believes this was truly a ‘perfect’ can’t lose trade, then we translate to current markets.Link: http://bit.ly/2G8uawM
The inaugural episode of MacroVoices INSIDE THE INVESTMENT COMMITTEE featuring Julian Brigden, Juliette Declercq and Alex Gurevich takes you inside the process professional fund managers and their advisers use to source and vet macro trading strategies.
Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome back Alex Gurevich to MacroVoices. Erik and Alex discuss the bigger picture outlook on the business cycle, the yield curve, Treasury bonds and the dollar. They further discuss the current quantitative tightening cycle and when the Fed will again begin easing. They then go around the world discussing the global economies in Australia, Canada, China Japan and Europe. The end with a discussion on where is gold heading in the bigger picture and interest rates momentum as a predictor of equity markets.
---- Write in with feedback about this episode to stand a chance to win a copy of Vee's recommended trading book "The Next Perfect Trade" autographed by author Alex Gurevich, as well as prizes worth up to US$300! Submit your feedback here: https://trackrecordasia.com/podcast. ----- Vee Leung Phan (@TrackRecordAsia) is the Founder of TrackRecord Asia and former Head of Trading across multiple divisions for Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley. Vee made his way into the industry by chance, after realising there was no real opportunity back home during the 1997 Asia Financial Crisis. Fast forward 13+ years and Vee had co-founded a hedge fund, run multiple divisions for both Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley, and co-founded a machine learning tech startup. TrackRecord Asia is a financial training academy for trading teams in banks and professional traders - designed to teach you the frameworks learnt in his days across first-class institutions. Vee is a great guy, with a wealth of experience across the industry. This is a great episode where we cover: Singapore and his childhood in Kuala Lumpur Uni life in Manchester and how he got into trading Lessons learnt from his mother Career path and insight into the industry His trading training framework The biggest mistake in the business SHOW NOTES 01:33 - Introduction 04:07 - Singapore and his childhood in Kuala Lumpur 06:51 - What he wanted to be when he grew up 07:50 - Uni in Manchester and how he got into trading 11:35 - His personality within the industry 13:29 - Lessons learnt from his mother 18:31 - His career path and insight into the industry 23:47 - Trading training framework 30:53 - The biggest mistake in the business 33:25 - Daily routine 34:30 - What book he would gift 36:15 - Best purchase under $200 LINKS (IN ORDER OF EPISODE) TrackRecord Website, Twitter Singapore Kuala Lumpur Spider-Man University of Manchester University of Cambridge Imperial College London JPMorgan Chase & Co. Bloomberg What I Learned Losing a Million Dollars The Next Perfect Trade, by Alex Gurevich
Alex Gurevich, a professor of Mathematics and an ex JP Morgan executive, believes Bitcoin is edging closer to becoming digital gold.SHOW YOUR SUPPORT: https://Patreon.com/CryptoCousins |https://4MinuteCrypto.com/Donate |https://Tippin.me/@GaryLeland |Use The Binance Exchange https://CryptoCousins.com/Binance Open a Coinbase account https://CryptoCousins.com/Coinbase & receive $10 worth of Bitcoin.
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"The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see", Sir Winston Churchill. Men and women of historical significance understood the importance of history. Tim Price, partner and Director of Investment at PFP Wealth Management and author of Investing Through the Looking Glass, kicks off our extended look at the history of financial crises and scandals, and what they can tell us about the future. In 'Things I Got Wrong', Alex Gurevich, CIO of HonTe Investments, shares what he got wrong about conflating market forecasting with other realms of expertise. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Guests: Alex Gurevich - the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of HonTe Investments John Martin - Chief Executive Officer at Martin Advisory & Consulting Services See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.