ODEON CAPITAL CONVERSATIONS

Bank earnings season is well underway with DICK BOVE, the dean of bank analysts, concluding the sector's outlook is bleak. Four of Wall Street's premier league banks — JP Morgan, Chase, Citigroup and Bank of America — reported on Friday. A multitude of write offs and some $2.9 billion in charges linked to the rescue of regional banks weighed heavily on results. Citigroup reported a quarterly loss of $1.8 billion and announced it would eliminate 20,000 jobs worldwide, or 10 percent of its workforce.  BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP,  says a fundamental shift is underway in US banking as new rules and regulations are forcing banks to offload assets and become more risk averse. “The US government does not want the banks to grow,” says BOVE. In this changed environment, there will be winners and losers, he says.   Why has the US economy defied Wall Street expectations and skirted recession? By some measures, the economy should already have been in sharp contraction as rising interest rates, borrowing costs and inflation pinch consumers. BOVE traces the surprising resiliency of the US economy to the massive stimulus spending during the Covid lockdowns. That spending saw consumer net worth grow by $41 trillion from the start to the official end of the Covid lockdowns from early 2020 to the middle of 2023, according to BOVE. Still, MAT VAN ALSTYNE, says polling shows American consumers are feeling downbeat on the economy in sharp contrast to the upbeat message of the official data. “People don't feel good,” adds VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner. “We have rents rising, high rates, the world seems to be chaotic and things are falling apart.” Elsewhere, the CONVERSATION examines the SEC voting to expand investors' ability to buy cryptocurrency in the form of ETS and mutual funds. And there's more. Joining the CONVERSATION is our host, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE Questions & Comments: podcast@odeoncap.com

Lies, damn lies and statistics? DICK BOVE, once again, challenges the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), this time attacking its announcement that the US economy generated 216,000 jobs in December as the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7 percent. Using government data on hirings, layoffs, people quitting jobs and hourly wages, BOVE concludes December's BLS report is widely off the mark. “We lost 150,000 jobs last month,” says BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. “It's an outrageous misstatement of these numbers by the press that creates major losses in the hands of investors,” he adds.    In fact, BOVE sees weaker signs in the labor markets than is acknowledged by other analysts. Are we therefore, inching ever closer to that long anticipated recession?  The CONVERSATION examines the US money supply which BOVE has been tracking for months. The latest data shows the M2 money supply continues to shrink with the first significant drop in M2 since the Great Depression. Some analyst see that as a harbinger of recession. MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, says BOVE'S analysis of the US Money Supply is on target. Meanwhile, bank earnings season is upon us. BOVE, a veteran bank analyst, expects dismal results and explains why.  Will we see a sharp decline in 2024 in management fund fees for ETF mutual funds and other funds? One report hints at fee reductions. The CONVERSATION also looks at the lessons of history – how many nations supposedly neutral, reportedly profiteered by quietly working with the Third Reich. What might this suggest about the stance of “non-aligned” nations today as the brutal war in Ukraine grinds on, asks our host JOHN AIDAN BYRNE. Questions & Comments: Podcast@odeoncap.com      

All eyes are on the US Fed and Central bankers worldwide at the start of 2024. Investors are increasingly convinced this year will see a pivot to lower interest rates and the end of money tightening that saw the Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate reach the current 5.25% to 5.50% range. Federal Reserve posts suggest a possibility the Fed could cut interest rates as much as six times in 2024, according to DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. BOVE believes the Fed's approach will be measured and rate cuts may not begin until the middle of 2024. However, the real question is whether companies will benefit more from interest rate cuts than from a diminution of inflation. Thus opens a lively exchange on conflicting reports on company pricing policies at the peak of our recent inflation. BOVE cites various studies and reports, and identifies the term ‘greedflation,' coined by former Labor Secretary, ROBERT REICH. The claim is that many companies were able to significantly expand profit margins with no consumer push back as prices escalated. JOHN AIDAN BYRNE presents a study showing how companies grew margins by a median of 49 percent. BOVE concludes that if indeed companies were engaged in ‘greedflation' then the path to profitability in 2024 will be through expanded unit sales. The CONVERSATION looks at some upsides of falling interest rates. BOVE notes that the Federal government debt could plunge to a level below 2022 fiscal total with a fall in interest rates. Declining rates should be a boost for consumers. Still, BOVE believes the US economy is really slowing down despite increased holiday spending. Questions & Comments: Podcast@odeoncap.com

In our final episode of 2023, DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, explains his rationale for his upgrade of five bank stocks, from Hold to Buy: Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC), Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE:WFC), U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB), PNC Financial Services (NYSE:PNC), and Truist Financial Corp. (NYSE:TFC). It could arguably be the handiwork of the Federal Reserve, which has sent clear signals that the war against inflation is over. After a massive series of rate hikes, the next step is the other direction, rate cuts, a move which factors into BOVE'S latest outlook for bank stocks. Questions & Comments: Podcast@odeoncap.com

Is America now in recession, or within striking distance? DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, thinks so. As the US stock market skyrockets in anticipation of a series of interest rate cuts in 2024, BOVE sees huge trouble in sections of the US economy. Forget about the standard textbook definition of recession—two consecutive quarters of declining GDP—the cracks are already appearing. Negative equity on automobiles in America, for instance, is at the highest level in three years. (Two consecutive quarters of declines are not always applied in the designation of recessions today, according to MAT VAN ALSTYNE, recalling the most recent bouts of recession.) While investors anticipate rate cuts, BOVE says the Fed has muddied the waters with conflicting communications from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and separate comments by Fed governors. "Investors don't care, they see inflation has come down and they see rates coming down," he added. BOVE is out with a new report. Who Owns the US Federal Debt? Who Will Pay For It? With the US National Debt at over $33 trillion and rising, deficit spending could hit some $2.2 trillion in fiscal 2023. Now foreign buyers of US Treasuries are scaling back, raising questions on who will step in. Meanwhile, the brutual war in Ukraine continues to grind on. "My view is that Russia is winning, " says BOVE, "not so much as in Ukraine but in the global financial system." Joining the CONVERSATION, our host, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE, outlines Putin's strategy for leveraging the exit of foreign companies from Russia to his advantange, a tax that has contributed to his nation's coffers. Questions & Comments: Podcast@odeoncap.com

The Annual Senate hearing on US banking was different this year, turning most of the attention to a single topic—the proposed new banking regulations that would radically reshape the industry. In years past, the committee grilled the assembled CEOs of America's top banks on a wide range of topics, from assisting underserved communities to community development. Not this year as the leaders of eight banks, among them Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan and Bryan Moynihan of Bank of America, gathered in DC. As DICK BOVE recalls, there was widespread criticism of the new rules on both sides of the aisles and among the bankers. BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, said the industry view is that the rules would reduce bank lending as well as hurt the US economy. “This raises the question as to why are these regulations being discussed when everyone is against them,” according to BOVE. “The reason is that the government cannot meet its obligations.” In an interesting twist, as banks' capital requirements increase, and as they scale back in a range of money making activities, US banks may become larger buyers of US Treasuries.  The CONVERSATIONS assesses one strategy— stock buybacks — many US banks and other public companies have used to shore up their stock price. “I believe in the free markets but this is disgusting,” says MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner. Meanwhile, BOVE is out with his latest measure of the US Money Supply. He explains the methodology and why this is substantially larger than the Fed's official count of the US Money Supply. The CONVERSATION also parses the latest data on inflation and labor as the Fed deliberates this week on the trajectory of US interest rates. While inflation continues to cool, there may be some evidence of “a little bit more heat” in the inflation numbers than is immediately evident, according to VAN ALSTYNE. BOVE reports on wage data based on college and non-college educated workers.  JOHN AIDAN BYRNE, our host, quotes the opinion of one commentator: US universities are pursuing political agendas instead of excellence. Elsewhere, we look at significant global events. Questions & Comments: Podcast@odeoncap.com

With the US economy still perked up with trillions of dollars created during the Covid-19 pandemic to stimulate the financial system, with inflation easing, and expectations of interest rate cuts in 2024, the markets are responding in kind. The S&P 500 is hot, rising 8.9% in November, investment banking is booming, and there's a feel-good nationwide ripple effect. Homeowners too, are enjoying a surge in home equity values. Still, it is a tale of two economies. "The rich are really getting richer now, and the poor are up against significant issues," says DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. "Are the consumers with the most money going to continue to drive the game? Or, is it now the consumers who are unable to pay their loans? Will they drive this game?" Meanwhile, interest rates cuts are the buzz of Wall Street. Many investors see a series of rate cuts by the US Fed in 2024. MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, says it may not be that straightforward. "The Idea that the Fed commences an easing cycle voluntarily," he says, "by preemptively cutting rates because they think they have gone far enough [and] now want to engineer a soft landing - that is phenomenal news." But Van Alstyne warns it may not be that simple. Elsewhere, BOVE doubles down on his research on US housing trends, repeating his expectations for a housing bust based on demographic and census trends. BOVE is highly critical of new research on housing by the Harvard University Joint Center for Housing. "The university should be ashamed of itself for producing this dribble," he says. JOHN AIDAN BYRNE, our host, questions BOVE on his basic assumptions from regional trends to evidence of vast tracks of ghost towns across America. Questions & Comments: podcast@odeoncap.com

US banks are staring at rising loan losses among clients in the private equity markets. These customers, operating conglomerates and other businesses, are struggling on debt repayments as higher interest rates take a toll, according to DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, in a new report. “You'd be amazed if you subtracted the net increase in debt from the cash flow statements of [many] American companies, at how many are not generating enough cash,” he says. BOVE is forecasting multiple billions of dollars in bank loan losses in this sector in the coming months. “These losses are going to bankrupt a lot of companies,” he adds. Meanwhile, BOVE says it's premature to suggest the Fed is ready to call it done in its so far successful campaign to tamp down inflation. In good part, that's because of the Fed's tight monetary policy, a policy which has a direct influence on interest rates. Total assets at the Fed have been in steady decline for months. BOVE says the Fed may also raise the Fed Funds rate at least one more time, meaning a hike of 25-basis-points. Higher rates have inflicted financial pain all around, including in debt financing costs of the US government. MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, says the government has, nonetheless, taken its eye off the financial ball, as political dysfunction rages in Congress. Elsewhere, we look what it takes to be regarded as “rich and affluent” in America today as the ranks of millionaires swell to record levels. JOHN AIDAN BYRNE presents historical data of how being a millionaire about a century ago in America had a different financial meaning than today. We also look at global events. Questions & Comments: Podcast@odeoncap.com   

In an in-depth new report, DICK BOVE sees the makings of a US housing bust. The latest data from the National Association of Realtors shows the pace of home sales plunged to its lowest level in more than 13 years in October, with an uptick in the median home prices. High mortgage rates are cited for the tightening conditions, falling home sales and reduced inventory. BOVE looks beyond the latest malaise. Housing unit growth now exceeds the growth in the US population, he says. Moreover, the money supply that funded growth is now declining. "I think we're headed for a peak in housing activity," according to BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. "You'll see a decline in housing activity; you'll see a decline in production, housing prices are going to come down. There's going to be loan losses." Meanwhile, the pace of inflation is slowing with a range of commodity prices in sharp decline. Some retailers see a period of deflation. US government data shows, nonetheless, steady if not strong consumer purchasing activity. Consumers are enjoying the "wealth effect" of a rising stock market, with growing home equity fuelling a feel good spending climate, according to MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner. BOVE also discusses developments in the bank sector, from layoffs at Citi to the constraints of new banking regulations. Joining the CONVERSATIONS is our host, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE. Questions & Comments: Podcast@odeoncap.com

Inflation eased in October with consumer prices up 3.2% from a year ago, the Labor Department reported on Tuesday November 14. That's a smaller annual increase in the consumer price index (CPI) than the month before when inflation came in at 3.7%. Inflation was flat on a monthly basis. "The markets have taken off like a rocket today under the assumption that inflation has been beaten," said DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. The Fed, which embarked on an aggressive interest rate hike campaign, is credited for the sharp fall in inflation from its peak of 9.1 percent in June 2022. "The Fed is now in a very strong place," says MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner. Meanwhile, BOVE is out with a comprehensive new report on the unprecedented rise in the net worth of American households and non-profit institutions. "Americans are filthy rich. Thousands are becoming millionaires every year," he says. Still, VAN ALSTYNE says as many as 40 percent of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck. Our host, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE, reminds us of the Gini index, or Gini co-efficient of income inequality, frequently referenced by BOVE and VAN ALSTYNE, which paints a dark picture of America's income distribution. Meanwhile, there's inflation and then deflation. Inflation is finally emerging in Japan after years of falling prices. China, on the other hand, is battling deflationary pressures. China has many challenges to overcome in its economy, according to BOVE. Questions & Comments: podcast@odeoncap.com

US job growth cooled in October as the Labor Department's closely watched employment report showed the unemployment rate rising to 3.9%, the highest since January 2022, up from 3.8% in September. Employers added 150,000 jobs, half the September gains, and the smallest increase in jobs since June, according to the Bureau's establishment numbers. DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, calls the Bureau's reporting 'specious.' Still, BOVE says the evidence points to a deterioration in the labor markets. The economy on the jobs front is 'slowing meaningfully,' he adds. MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, says the Bureau's report shows a massive number of the jobs created were in part time employment. Many Americans are now holding multiple, part-time jobs to make ends meet, VAN ALSTYNE says. "This report is a disaster," he adds. Meanwhile, another sign of stress in the US economy comes from the latest data on auto loan sales and delinquencies. Elsewhere, the CONVERSATION looks at the explosion in assets under management (AUM) in the wealth management industry. Some of the largest asset managers have seen a surge in money inflows. BOVE cites Bank of America which estimates industry AUM has soared $40 trillion in the past decade to a staggering $65 trillion. Where is this money coming from, BOVE asks. Joining the CONVERSATION is our host, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE.

With wars and uncertainty across the globe—and the US mired in political polarization and economic fear—the CONVERSATION casts a wide net from the US to China. China, the world's largest economy, is showing fresh signs of weakening. The CONVERSATION asks pointed questions on the latest US economic growth numbers. US gross domestic product, surged at a 4.9% annualized pace in the third quarter, eclipsing the 4.7% estimate. Was it too good to be true? DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, explains why the headline number is a misreading of the true state of growth this past summer. Growth was milder than blockbuster. In part, that's because GDP for the third quarter is padded with inventory building. Meanwhile, as American consumers pile on more debt, Capital One reports a rise in its customer delinquency rates. The CONVERSATION plays an electronic program that provides self-directed scenarios for hypothetically reducing America's balooning deficits, and national debt. "You have a revenue problem, where the US is going to run out of money. You have a spending problem where the US is going to run out of money," says MAT VAN ALSTYNE, co-founder and managing partner at ODEON, explaining the various options for bolstering America's fiscal health. "So, you can either cut spending, or increasing revenue, or do a combination of both." Our host, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE, urges restraint on reform of America's much cherished Social Security program. Elsewhere, BOVE offers more insight on his recent Open Letter to JP Morgan. BOVE also questions the official reason JP Morgan's CEO, JAMIE DIMON, is planning to sell one million shares of the company stock. Questions & Comments: podcast@odeoncap.com

The U.S. government posted a $1.7 trillion budget deficit in fiscal 2023, a significant 23% jump from the prior year. Revenues declined and outlays for Social Security, Medicare and record-high interest costs on the federal debt raced ahead. "Nobody in Washington is interested in controlling spending," warns DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. The Treasury Department said the deficit came in as the largest since a $2.78 trillion gap in 2021 padded by COVID spending. ODEON co-founder, MAT VAN ALSTYNE, expressed shock at the plunge in individual income tax collections in the current fiscal year compared with a year earlier. Meanwhile, US car loan delinquencies are at a near three decade high, and consumers are defaulting on credit car loans at the highest pace in 10 years. Once again, some market experts are sounding the alarm for the long anticipated recession. Abroad, there is trouble in the Middle East, Ukraine and domestic tension in America. Still, the lessons of history may offer us some relief and positive hope for the future, says BOVE. Joining the CONVERSATION is our host, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE Questions & Comments: Podcast@odeoncap.com

It's bank earnings seasons with the four big US banks and one investment bank having so far reported. The picture is positive as measured by earnings. But the underlying picture shows challenges for the banks from pressure to increase their equity to proposed new rules condemned by the industry. DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, brings us his analysis on bank earnings and the latest challenges. Consumer spending exceeded expectation in September. Still, BOVE says the American consumer is showing signs of stress, laying out his case why spending is near a new tipping point. Meanwhile, the war between Israel and Hamas has shifted global dynamics, according to the Wall Street Journal. DICK and MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner share their views as investors wrestle with a changed and volatile environment. Elsewhere, there's the costly Green New Deal. Is it as clean as it may sound? We'll discuss. Joining the Conversation is our host, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE. Questions & Comments: Podcast@odeoncap.com

The CONVERSATION shares some frank and timely commentary on the shocking tragedy in Israel as the world watched the deadly horror unfold. DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP offers his thoughts. MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, shares some personal history, and raises concerns about American leadership. "We need leaders who have a world vision, " he says. "What is America's role in Ukraine? Nobody could tell us! What is our goal in Israel? What is our goal in Taiwan?" The CONVERSATION opens with a detailed examination of the latest US jobs numbers for September. With job gains wildly exceeding expectations, BOVE nevertheless explains why he is unimpressed. "I don't believe these jobs are creating any surge for the economy," he says. Our host, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE, presents some signs of green shoots in the manufacturing sector. Are these a positive start to a revival in the largely moribund US manufacturing sector? BOVE presents his outlook and analysis on US banks. "Bank stocks have been horrible performers," he says. What comes next for the unremarkable bank sector? Questions & Comments: Podcast@odeoncap.com

DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, offers his case for what has driven the 10-year treasury yield to its highest level in 16 years. Borrowing costs are soaring. BOVE identifies the sharp reduction, over $1 trillion, in the US Money Supply for the rise in the 10-year yield. The US Treasury is feeling the ripple effects. “The Treasury is paying money to the Fed as it is losing money on its operations,” says BOVE. The CONVERSATION also discusses two opposite sides of the Fed's latest challenges. Professor Jason Furman of Harvard says losses at the Fed Reserve don't matter. Alex J Pollack, writing in The Hill, disagrees, describing the Fed's accumulated operating losses “a landmark event.” BOVE explains why the losses impact the financial system in far-reaching and negative ways. “I feel the Fed is shrinking the money supply on purpose to drive up interest rates because they want the economy to slow,” says MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner. Meanwhile, our host, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE, opens up a CONVERSATION on the phenomena of celebrity TAYLOR SWIFT as sales for her concerts and appearances have sold out. BOVE shares some personal family stories on the SWIFT monetary bandwagon. US consumers have been splurging on experiences, travel and personal indulgences as housing prices soar, and as stark signs of consumer stress emerge. Elsewhere, we discuss the realities and concerns of the Green New Deal. BOVE presents his latest research on US banks amidst the continuing crisis in the sector. Questions & Comments: Podcast@odeoncap.com  

The US economy is at a pivotal moment as the Federal Reserve reduces its balance sheeting, shrinking it by 10.5 percent, of $940 billion in the past 18 months. Banks are losing deposits, money market funds are seeing outflows. This is a turning point, says DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP as the economy faces heightened risks of recession. Many analysts were puzzled as to why the US economy has dodged a recession thus far. BOVE says one explanation is that the government propped up the economy with trillions of dollars in stimulus spending. But the game has now changed. The money supply is shrinking. “There are bright spots in the economy,” says MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner. “That is the present reality. But where are we going? That is the real question.  The subjective realities are extraordinary negative on feelings about the US economy.” The CONVERSATION looks at the impact of higher interest rates on consumers struggling on repayments and debt servicing, and shifting more of their consumption to necessities. The manufacturing sector is weak. Is Made in America the way forward? Meanwhile, there is world disorder, is it spreading fast? Our host, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE, poses the question, citing one analyst who paints a grim view of the so-called rules based international order.  The politics and implications of a US government shutdown is examined.  DICK BOVE has the latest on US banks. “The banks are in trouble in the US,” he says, reprising his analysis of government plans to effective shrink the banking sector. Elsewhere, volatile China is in the spotlight once again. Questions & Comments: Podcast@odeoncap.com

How do we understand the latest media tour by Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, as she touts reasons to be sanguine on the state of the US economy, in particular the US consumer? Consumers are feeling better about their personal finances though negative, nonetheless, on the overall state of the US economy, she asserted in an interview. Jobs are being created more evenly across the nation, and in areas once starved for middle class employment, she says, crediting recent legislation out of Washington. What's the reality? On this episode, DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, asks has YELLEN embarked on the Democratic push for the Presidency, “by assuring the voter that all is well?” MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, says there are a multitude of negative indicators of an imminent downturn. “There are a lot of tailwinds in this economy,” he says, “and it is unbelievable to me that the Fed is even considering raising interest rates.” The CONVERSATION examines the recent comments in a fireside chat by JP MORGAN Chairman & CEO, JAMIE DIMON, on the state of global affairs. DIMON notes a major shift in our present realities, from global financial stability to war and peace and China. The mounting global debt crisis is a great cause of concern, he says, as is America's over-the-top fiscal spending habits. Dimon is hugely disappointed too by the proposed new banking regulations. “Jamie Dimon is describing the very same issues we have been discussing here on our podcast,” says BOVE. Still, BOVE believes bank regulations are moving in the right direction, by striking a new tone on the need for more risk. Elsewhere, we look at China's latest housing crisis and at the latest on inflation. Joining the CONVERSATION is our host, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE. Questions & Comments: Podcast@odeoncap.com 

On August 29, 2023, the three major bank regulatory agencies issued a whopping 1,087-page set of new rules and regulations for the banking industry. The rules emerged following the recent failures of three regional banks which exposed financial vulnerabilities in the sector in this era of rising interest rates. After a comment period, the rules are expected to take effect in January 2024. What are the long-term implications of these new rules? Bank analyst, DICK BOVE, says the rules certainly mean reduced risk for banks. But the rules also transfer huge risks to the non-bank sector which will impact the economy negatively, he says. Meanwhile, the US government is facing fresh challenges in containing run away spending as the deficit soars, says MAT VAN ALSTYNE, Odeon co-founder and managing partner. Elsewhere, the CONVERSATION examines the Odeon Capital Group Money Supply, which shows the Fed did not capture the actual decline early enough in the US Money Supply as measured by its own data. On the global scene, we discuss trouble in Africa's hotspots and ask why did the leaders of China and Russia skips the recent G-20 Summit in India. Joining the CONVERSATION is out host, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE. Questions & Comments: Podcast@odeoncap.com

Many economists had widely anticipated a US and global recession for the past 12 months, a recession that never materialized. With the US Fed aggressively hiking interest rates to tamp down sky-high inflation, the view was that it would result in a sharp rise in unemployment, as well as a steady decline in economic activity. Instead, the US economy has remained resilient, inflation has declined while employers have added 3.1 million jobs in the past 12 months. But this much anticipated recession may just have been delayed a little bit longer. And when it erupts, it could be sharp and brutual. In a new report, DICK BOVE, forecasts a debt fuelled recession within the next 18 months. BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, traces much of the origins of this next downturn to the overwhelming surge in the US money in the early 2020s in response to the Covid 19 pandemic. A new set of dominoes, he says, are likely in 2024: *Consumer debt rising too rapidly *Cost of that debt rising even faster *Continued increases in wages, debt defaults starting to mount *Money massively stimulating consumption rather than the vital production side of the economy. "I believe that by the middle to the end of 2024, we're going to be dealing with debt servicing problems, and that's going to crash the economy," says BOVE. Joining the CONVERSATION is MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, as well as our host, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE. Questions & Comments: Podcast@odeoncap.com

The CONVERSATION conducts a post mortem on comments by Fed Reserve Chairman, JEROME POWELL, in his speech last week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.  “There is this belief that he [Powell] doesn't believe in what he says,” says DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. But he warns: “The market should not ignore him. Inflation is not beaten.” POWELL also seemed to telegraph that the course of interest rates would be “data dependent,” according to MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner. (Case in point: US job openings dropped in July by more than analysts had expected to a more than two-year low, providing new evidence for rate-setters that demand for workers is cooling.) Either way, rising interest rates have negatively impacted US housing on several fronts. With the average 30-year fixed mortgage reaching its highest rate since 2001, home affordability and cost of ownership are pinching many buyers' finances. DICK BOVE, once again, sounds the alarm for the real possibility of a housing crisis. Still, there's a solution for the impaired financial mechanism setting up the housing market for potential collapse, according to BOVE. Private capital would be unleashed, and more affordable homeownership would be within buyers reach if housing agencies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, are taken out of conservatorship, he says. Elsewhere, the CONVERSATION looks at the latest stresses on banks from capital to the retention of customer deposits. On the global scene, China's economy remains deeply challenged while Germany's is shrinking. “[Global] debt got us to where we are now, and debt won't be able to take us out,” says BOVE. Joining the CONVERSATION is JOHN AIDAN BYRNE. Questions & Comments: Podcast@odeoncap.com   

With markets about to parse the forthcoming speech this week of US Fed Chairman, JEROME POWELL at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, all eyes were suddently on mortgages rates, which have hit a 23-year high on 30-year fixed loans. Home affordability in America is becoming more expensive, demand is far outpacing supply, and the funding mechanisms for home mortgages are creaking. "We're seeing a breakdown in the housing financing system, " says DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. "I think the possibility of a housing crash is very real." MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, says in the event of a housing crash, it is conceivable the Fed would intervene to control the financial debacle with a series of familiar measures to stimulate liquidity. Banks continued to be squeezed with S&P following Moody's and Fitch in downgrading banks. The CONVERSATION examines the growing risk now facing the US bank system as regulators step up their capital requirements for lenders. On the positive side, after a sustained slowdown, investment banking is showing signs of renewal as deal making and stock offerings slowly return. Meanwhile, BOVE lays out his case for why Goldman Sachs CEO, DAVID SOLOMON, has positively contributed to the financial strength and future of the fabled investment bank. Elsewhere, we look at China and thedisturbing signs of economic decline. Joining the CONVERSATION is JOHN AIDAN BYRNE. Questions & Comments: Podcast@OdeonCap.com

Investing in US bank stocks the past five years has disappointed many investors. "The result was not a random event," says DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, outlining three reasons why he believes the industry performed so badly relative to the market overall. The reasons include the steady climb in US interest rates as the Fed embarked on its campaign to tame runaway inflation. Many banks are now scaling bank as lending is curbed, and as rating agencies signal warnings, downgrade a roster of banks and put others on a watch list. "My bigger issue is this," says MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, referring to the regulatory environment. "The United States government is telling the world: We don't want regional banks; we don't want smaller banks because we have different rules for big banks - so the goal is to become a big bank, or get out of the way." Elsewhere, the CONVERSATION looks at developments, political and economic, in China, Russia and compares their performance and stability with the US. As China grapples with multiple economic challenges, BOVE says China's banks in the nation's troubled real estate sector would have declared bankruptcy if they had been operating under US rules. Host JOHN AIDAN BYRNE notes how global investment flows have been shifting since COVID-19 altered dynamics. The US, he adds, has seen a pick up in foreign direct investment, for example. Questions & Comments: podcast@odeoncap.com

Wall Street is paying close attention to the latest data on labor markets and inflation, as well as on wage growth and more, as the Fed weighs up its next move. For DICK BOVE, the Fed seems increasingly likely to extend its interest rate hike campaign to finally tamp down inflation closer to its target rate of 2.00 percent. BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, continues to see evidence of a pick up in the pace of inflation. That would factor heavily into the Fed's decision on US interest rates, which many analysts nevertheless expect to see headed back down in the next 12 months. MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, sees that latter course unfolding. In his view, that's because of the perilous state of US government debt. "What we're looking at is the complete collapse of the fiscal ability of the US government to function—and there's only one way out," says VAN ALSTYNE. BOVE reports on the fast moving events in the US bank sector, including Moody's decision to cut the ratings of a roster of banks. Banks are also feeling more pressure from regulators, who BOVE says are taking extreme measures damaging the industry. "Banks are shrinking, or as I put it, they have gone on strike," he says. Elsewhere, the CONVERSATION strikes up a debate on falling levels of trust in US government and on US Supreme Court decisions which have roiled the nation. Joining the CONVERSATION, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE points out that the highest court in the land may be a scapegoat at large for a society in disarray. Questions & Comments: Podcast@odeoncap.com

The white-hot stock market gains in the first half of this year, wage gains, a tight labor market, rising home prices— as well as falling inflation data—have contributed to a widespread view among many analysts that the US economy has avoided a major recession. A soft landing, if any, is now a popular narrative. But DICK BOVE is filled with conviction that our latest gains on the economy and inflation could soon be reversed. With wages rising faster than inflation, more people entering the workforce and the wealth effect of sharply higher asset prices from stocks to housing, the Fed may soon be back at the drawing board, he says. That's because of a return of a higher pace of inflation from inflation's recent low of 3 percent. In this scenario, the Fed would extend its interest rate campaign far longer than anticipated by many. "We're looking at an inflationary spiral, " says BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. "I think the Fed will continue to raise interest rates. I don't think the conventional view is correct." Meanwhile, regulators' efforts to supervise the troubled US banking sector could backfire. An acceleration in bank consolidations and hightened risks for the sector is predicted by BOVE. On the global front, the Conversation will look at the prospects for expanding investment opportunities in the African continuent bouyed by favorable demographics. China, meanwhile, is facing a plunging population more severe than officially reported, according to one analyst. Joining the Conversation is JOHN AIDAN BYRNE who poses the question: Is the current blistering streak for the stock market a sympton of an asset bubble that will burst. Questions & Comments: Podcast@OdeonCap.com

Stocks surged as Wall Street scaled back its recession fears, the S&P 500 trading at its highest level since April 2022, by the close of trading on Tuesday July 25. "Investors have changed their outlook on the economy," says DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. "They have made the decision that inflation is dead or dying, that there's one more final US rate hike. Jobs are continuing to grown." Still, there's a batch of negative indicators, including the bond market, which flies in the face of this stock market rally, according to MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner. Numerator's latest Consumer Sentiment Study also shows consumers' strong level of concerns about the US economy, says JOHN AIDAN BYRNE. Despite the high levels of public and personal debt, BOVE says it is still consistent with a growing US economy even as consumers run out of credit-fueled steam. Meanwhile, BOVE explains why the FDIC has issued a warning to US banks on their uninsured deposits, the key element in the recent collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. BOVE also took aim at the FDIC, the US government agency which facilitates insurance for bank depositors. "The FDIC didn't recognizxe that the increase in interest rates could reduce the value of bank assts." Elsewhere, the CONVERSATION takes a closer look at the latest UN forecast on national populations. The EU countries are forecast to see a drop in populations. The US, meanwhile, is grappling with its own demographic crisis with repeared calls for a steady stream of immigrants. Join ODEON CAPITAL CONVERSATIONS for a Live Webinar, Unmasking the Economy, hosted by Geeks, Geezers & Googlization, Thursday July 27 @ 11:00 AM ET on LinkedIn and YouTube. For More Information on the Webinar & Questions: Podcast@OdeonCap.com

Stocks continued their recent upswing as investors absorbed a stream of quarterly earnings. The rally in part reflected a positive response to earnings reports from big banks like Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS). A certain “euphoria” also gripped the markets as fears of recession and inflation eased. Is this positive momentum overblown? “You have to wonder if this euphoria is enough to carry the markets when the earnings are no longer there,” says veteran bank analyst, DICK BOVE. “Because the biggest problem for the banks is the fixed loans they own.” BOVE adds that pundits and some investors are missing the bigger picture on the economy and the banks. This includes the underlying reality of JP Morgan's reported record profit and its earnings per share (EPS) buoyed by its recent acquisition of First Republic Bank's assets in a government-sponsored deal. “We're not out of the banking crisis,” says BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP.  “The big banks have lost profits.” Despite Treasury Secretary, JANET YELLEN, tamping down worries of an imminent recession—and economists dialing back the risks of a slowdown—the US and global economy may have entered its most uncertain phase in months. MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, says many are ignoring an important indicator. That's the government bond market, which is signaling recession, he says. Moreover, US tax receipts are down, 20 percent year-on-year, another negative recessionary indicator. Piling on the debt burden, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE, notes the US national debt has soared by $1 trillion since  the debt ceiling was lifted, much of that reflecting a catch up on stalled payments during the debt ceiling standoff. Still, total outstanding public debt has now reached $32.5 trillion. Elsewhere, the CONVERSATION examines the rise of “non-bank” lenders, a sector competing with traditional banks that includes  some pension funds, insurers, mutual funds, hedge funds and other institutions. According to the Financial Stability Board, these “non-banks” had $239 trillion on their books in 2021. “The risk of loan losses in this sector if staggering,” according to BOVE. Meanwhile, a surge in home equity lending is coming, says BOVE, as US homeowners tapped into the rising equity in their homes. Watch the ODEON CAPITAL CONVERSATIONS Live Webinar Thursday, July 27, 11:00AM ET, hosted by Geeks Geezers & Googlization on LinkedIn and YouTube. Questions & More Information: Podcast@OdeonCap.com     

US consumers are borrowing like gangbusters and spending heavily in a post-Covid world of destination travel, luxury purchases and more personal freedom. Yet there are signs consumers are also becoming tapped out as Covid savings evaporate and US household debt rises, a sum now hovering around $17 trillion. That could be a disaster for US banks, according to analyst DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. Many of the thousands of small to medium-sized US banks specializing in consumer lending, could be in the eye of a financial storm in our rising interest rate environment, BOVE says. "We'll see more failures," he adds, referring to a a group of approximately 3,500 lenders. In one telltale sign of consumer stress: A surge in negative equity in the auto loan sector. This rise in bad auto loans is being watched closely for the impact on several banks active in the sector. Meanwhile, Federal regulators have issued reports on a key rump of US banks following annual audits known as 'stress tests.' BOVE repeats an earlier warning that the tests do not properly sum up the latest financial health of the banks. "I am repeating my warning because the banks are in trouble," he says. Questions & Comments: Podcast@OdeonCap.com

The latest quarterly GDP, January through March, shows the US economy grew at a 2 percent annual rate driven by consumers spending at the fastest pace in nearly two years. Real personal income rose 2.4 percent quarter-over-quarter on an annual basis. Exports grew 3.5 times faster than imports. These are some highlights of a report by DICK BOVE comparing and contrasting the upsides and downsides of the government's latest GDP numbers. On the downside, he notes that growth in personal income is substantially offset by a surge in government transfer payments during the quarter. A massive proportion of spending is also directed at debt service payments. The bull case depends on continued momentum from consumers; the bear case argues this can't continue, according to BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. US consumers are spending generously despite rising borrowing costs, a potential sign of lingering post-Covid feel-good optimism, according to MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner. Meanwhile, BOVE is out with a scathing critique of the Federal Reserve, "The Last Straw. Is the Federal Reserve Deliberately Publishing Questionable Data?" BOVE notes, for example, that despite the latest bank stress test indicating US banks are in sound condition, the likelihood of more interest rate rises, "will intensify the problem that caused the recent bank failures." Joining the CONVERSATION is out host, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE. Questions & Comments: Podcast@OdeonCap.com

The past week has seen a series of sweeping global developments — from the military mutiny in Russia that was suddenly averted, to the historic US visit by India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi. At the same time US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Bejing with trade and mutual cooperation on the table. These major events, amidst unfolding regional drama and changes, could portend opportunities for the US and free markets, according to DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP.  “China took a major hit last week,” says BOVE. “But the biggest coup of all was India, they can't be anti-US anymore.” The CONVERSATION looks in more detail at this seeming pivot in global commerce and trade. “China is an export dependent economy, if it does not export, it does not have an economy,” says MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, underlining one of China's main priorities and the benefits of peaceful co-existence with neighbors. What could go wrong? JOHN AIDAN BYRNE raises questions about the internal stability of the Chinese economy from high youth unemployment to a weak consumer sector. New data from BOVE shows the US money supply as a share of the world's money supply, has been steadily declining — from a high of nearly 90 percent in the 1950s to some 20 percent in recent years.  We examine what that means for the greenback. The dollar is still the globe's major currency. Despite a push by many countries to destabilize it, the US dollar is the main currency held by central banks worldwide. Elsewhere, the demographic crisis in Western nations continues with the sharp drop in US fertility rates offset by sustained levels of immigration.  Finally, we look at the decline and fall of once mighty empires from the Roman to the British Empires. Questions & Comments: Podcast@OdeonCap.com 

By one popular measure, the so-called M2, the US Money Supply is declining. However, by a broader count of the money in the financial system in America, known as the Odeon Cap Revised M3, the US money supply is expanding at a rapid pace, according to DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. That's one clear reason he now sees the Fed coming back with two further interest rate rises in 2023, underscoring the Fed's own outlook. At its most recent meeting, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged at a range of 5.0% to 5.25% but signalled the possibility of ratcheting up rates twice later this year. BOVE says once he examined the data more closely, he was convinced these rates are on the cards. "What Fed Chairman [Jerome] Powell says, is what he means, " says BOVE. "We will have two more rate rises in the Fed Funds rate [this year]." Rising interest rates increases the chances for "breakage" in the US economy. Higher costs for capital and debt servicing could finally takes its toll. A Federal Reserve Bank of New York report shows total US household debt of some $17.5 trillion. Credit card debt is escalating, hovering around $1 trillion. Business debt is at a record high. "We are overwhelmed with debt," says BOVE. "It is affecting the economy and the Fed." MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, says the Fed is in a tough corner. "It seems to be waiting for something to break and nothing is breaking," he adds. The financial services side of the economy is "stressed," according to BOVE. Meanwhile, the US dollar's future as a reserve currency is debated following recent remarks on the greenback by Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen. BOVE suggests the dollar ultimately faces an inexorable decline given the weight of history. JOHN AIDAN BYRNE, our host, disagrees. He says a decline is not a foregone conclusion and points out recent setbacks in efforts by China and others to undermine the greenback. VAN ALSTYNE says there is no viable alternative today to the dollar as the anchor, or globe's reserve currency. Questions & Comments: Podcast@OdeonCap.com

The Federal Reserve's campaign to tame inflation is making steady progress. US data from May showed a deceleration in price rises. The closely-watched Consumer Price Index rose 4% in May compared with a year ago, down from April's 4.9% increase — the smallest monthly increase in more than two years, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Last June, inflation peaked at 9.1%. To be sure, it doesn't mean the Fed is done with further rate rises — underlying price pressures remain. But the latest CPI set the markets abuzz with positive speculation as inflation moves closer to the Fed's 2.0% target. “It is our belief that inflation has been beaten,” says DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. BOVE offers evidence that US inflation could drop more sharply as the money supply contracts and consumers run through excess cash. Housing was one of the standouts in the latest CPI, up 8.0% year-over-year. “It's a lagging indicator,” says MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, noting how the latest CPI would likely have come in lower if housing was a more concurrent indicator. (On Wednesday, June 14, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged at a range of 5.00% to 5.25%. In a surprise to many watchers, however, the Central Banker issued projections of two additional quarter point rate hikes in 2023.) Meanwhile, the pattern is repeating itself with inflation coming down across the globe. Still, there are notable and glaring exceptions from an eye-watering 155.8 % in Venezuela to 108.8% in Argentina. And there are no guarantees inflation has been finally throttled. A proposed currency board for Argentina, with the US greenback tied to the peso, would help stabilize the Argentine economy, says VAN ALSTYNE. Elsewhere, BOVE brings listeners up to date on the banking crisis and on the latest challenges. US banks are losing market share to rival lenders who face less regulation, and seemingly less stringent oversight. At the same time, US banks are not seeing enough deposit in-flows to maintain optimum levels of lending. Joining the CONVERSATION is JOHN AIDAN BYRNE who shares his thoughts on the plight of the American middle class, as we look more closely at the reality of the American Dream. Is it still alive and well? Questions & Comments: Podcast@odeoncap.com     

The CONVERSATION strikes a note of incredulity with the publication of the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly labor market data. The data are “total bologna,” says DICK BOVE, both erratic and hard to swallow. The establishment survey shows 339,000 jobs were “created” by the US economy, seasonally adjusted. The adjusted numbers shows a whopping 930,000 jobs created. The Bureau's household survey, meanwhile, shows 310,000 jobs lost on a seasonally adjusted basis; 73,000 jobs lost, unadjusted. BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, examines the data more closely, and compares it with state unemployment claims for evidence of the real health of the labor markets. The Fed's most aggressive rate-hiking campaign in 40 years is clearly impacting sectors of the economy to varying degrees, from the labor markets and unemployment to bank balance sheets and duration risk. “The Fed is getting the job done,” says MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner. In our current environment, BOVE says US bank's balance sheets are “totally misleading.” And he addresses the regulatory pressure for banks to raise more equity. VAN ALSTYNE says high US interest rates are the reason for many of the present troubles at banks and in other corners of the market. (The federal funds rate is currently 5.00% to 5.25%.) Joining the CONVERSATION is JOHN AIDAN BYRNE who opens a discussion on Artificial Intelligence and the banking industry. He notes how JP Morgan is reported to be developing a ChatGPT-style software for customers. Questions & Comments: Podcast@OdeonCap.com

The Federal Reserve is shrinking its balance sheet. Bank assets are flat. The money supply is plunging. These are some of the negative indicators of the US financial system, according to DICK BOVE, chief financialstrategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. Some positives: A rising stock market and the latest readings from the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) and the Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI), he adds. “One of the two indicators, either the negative or positive, has to give way,” says BOVE. “My belief is that the financial system, if it doesn't reverse itself, is going to cause the economy to slow down.” MAT VAN ALSYTNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, weighing up many of the prevailing financial headwinds, says that the “goldilocks” American economy is on course to eventually make a sharp reversal. “When it happens,” he says, “it is going to be scary.” The latest PCE numbers opens the CONVERSATION. The core PCE rose in April by 0.4 percent, and by 4.7 percent year over year, raising new questions about the Fed's thinking on interest rates. “If the PCE keeps going up, it can't stop raising rates,” says BOVE. While inflation still remains elevated, there's an interesting twist right at the grocery store. The CONVERSATION discusses new ODEON research on a potential price war among retail chains. Elsewhere, the CONVERSATION looks at Morgan Stanley's announcement of 3,000 job cuts with China expected to see some of the biggest reductions. Meanwhile, Bank of Hawaii, a community bank serving home owners and local businesses is now at high risk, according to BOVE. Joining the CONVERSATION is JOHN AIDAN BYRNE who cites a new study which explains the nature of some of the money flows propping up the US stock market. Questions & Comments: Podcast@OdeonCap.com         

After 13 years at the helm of Morgan Stanley, JAMES GORMAN plans to step down as CEO within 12 months. He will remain as executive chairman. DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, says GORMAN'S departure is a major "blow" to Morgan Stanley. "To lose someone with his capabilities would be like JAMIE DIMON walking out of JP Morgan," says BOVE, referring to JP Morgan's highly-regarded CEO. While Morgan Stanley has not yet named a successor, three division heads have been identified as contendors. BOVE though has a warning. "If they actually let this succession fight last for a year," he says, "I think they will destroy big parts of Morgan Staney." BOVE looks back on an earlier succession battle, a brutual two-year affair at Citibank for insights on what could happen at Morgan Stanley. "Morgan Stanley's history suggests that it could easily go in this direction," according to BOVE. BOVE also looks at regional bank, KeyCorp, comparing its near and long-term outlook, noting how it is in positioned in the Midwest to benefit from the "inevitable reindustrialization" of America. It is also a source of funding for domestic energy resources. Also on his radar is PacWest, a Beverly Hills, CA-based bank that BOVE says is fighting for its very survival. Elsewhere, the CONVERSATION studies the latest Fed survey on US bank money flows, which shows the industry continues to see a decline in loans and deposits. Meanwhile, a link between the debt ceiling crisis and the rising stock market is suggested. MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, explains how the crisis could actually be fuelling a rise in equities. And we'll have an update on how US banks with operations in China are scaling back and firing staff. Joining the CONVERSATION is our host, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE. Questions & Comments: Podcast@OdeonCap.com

The CONVERSATION examines the latest Empire Manufacturing Index, a measure of business activity in New York State, which is now 42 points below where it stood 12 months ago. The widely-followed index is at its lowest level since 2009, showing decreases in orders, shipments and payrolls at factories. DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, in a recent note, points to the Empire Manufacturing Index along with other indicators, such as labor markets conditions, as signs of a long-anticipated recession taking hold. "The Empire study shows not just a slowdown, but a huge drop," BOVE says on this episode, referring to this US economic contraction. BOVE discusses his other research, such as the tighter lending standards at banks, as well as his fresh data on the housing market. While the US has not technically entered recession yet, BOVE says consumer behaviour suggests a recession may have started. "The economy is slowing," he says. Elsewhere, in an unconfirmed report out of China, an insider tells BOVE that a large number of major US banks with operations in China, are firing local staff en masse. "I am told that there is a huge wave of firings by American companies who do business in China," BOVE explains, noting how one insider feels the layoffs are poliitically motivated. BOVE believes the layoffs, if confirmed, are linked instead to the currency markets, and China's desire to undermine the US dollar. Joining the CONVERSATION, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE, says China's ambitions, and economic rise, should be kept in context given its history of oppression as well as the full reality of its economic progress. Questions & Comments: Podcast@OdeonCap.com

The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates again this month by 25 basis points, bringing it to a range between 5% and 5.25%. The widely-anticipated hike marked the tenth time the Fed has moved rates upward since March 2022, as part of its aggressive campaign to tame inflation. And while the Fed appears to be succeeding, the ripple effects have brought pain to the banking sector. Rising rates crippled the portfolios of Silicon Valley, Signature and other banks holding long term securities. Still, regulators and lawmakers have said the worst is over in this banking crisis. DICK BOVE, chief financial officer at ODEON CAPITAL CONVERSATIONS, nevertheless, repeats his warning, now with more urgency, that more bank failures are coming. "This was a systemic problem which has not been corrected and, therefore, the crisis continues," BOVE sas. "There will be more bank failures. And it will be significant." Joining the CONVERSATION, our host, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE, citing a new poll, says nearly 50 percent of Americans now worry that their bank deposits are not safe. Elsewhere, the CONVERSATIONS takes a closer look at the latest jobs and unemployment data. Despite a dip in the US unemployment rate to 3.4 percent, mass layoffs continue, job openings have contracted significantly across multiple sectors, productivity is declining and wages have flattened out. "The trend line is saying the job market will weaken, and unemployment is going to increase," BOVE says. "We're going to have an economic problem." The CONVERSATION will also look at the latest challenges for the US dollar as a global reserve currency. Questions & Comments: Podcast@OdeonCap.com

The CONVERSATION examines the sale of troubled California-based First Republic Bank to JP Morgan. The deal comes after a stormy period in the banking sector with the failures of Silicon Valley and Signature banks, a dark cloud hanging over First Republic and a brewing S&L-style crisis facing many banks. "The Federal Reserve and the FDIC just screwed smaller banks in America big time," says DICK BOVE, chief financial strategest at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, referring to the First Republic sale brokered by regulators. "JP Morgan now effectively becomes the Central Bank of the US," he adds, referring to the sheer scale and size of JP Morgan post the sale. Additionally, regulators will assess a special premium on other banks for the cost of the deal. JP Morgan, already America's largest banks by assets, picks up First Republic with 84 branches catering to mostly wealthy clients, for $10.6 billion. JP Morgan has some 4,800 branches, and now a larger national footprint with the acquistion. Indeed, JP Morgan is likely to see its earnings grow by $1 billion on an annual basis, according to BOVE, a sum that far exceeds official estimates. In light of the bank crisis, BOVE says the evidence points to a new game in time, short sellers punishing vulnerable banks. Elsewhere, the CONVERSATION looks at the trajectory of inflation, interest rates and jobs. Then there is the high-stakes drama of the debt ceiling talks in Washington. Our host, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE, notes how the number of high-wage earners filing for unemployment benefits has hit a new record, raising concerns about the overall state of the labor markets. Questions & Comments: Podcast@OdeonCap.com

The CONVERSATION opens with DICK BOVE's review of the latest data from the Fed's Beige Book on economic conditions in America. BOVE concludes that all the data points to a peak in activity across many sectors. "Everything that came back was indicative of a significant slowing in the economy," says BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. Alongside a separate Fed weekly report of financial indicators, one showing a decline in bank deposits, BOVE says economic activity is shrinking. "Every metric in the economy looks so negative," adds MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner. The Fed's campaign to tame US inflation appears to be succeeding. But with the succession of interest rate rises unleashed to reduce the pace of price rises in the economy, came trouble for smaller banks. The CONVERSATION examines the health of the US bank sector weeks after the collapse of SVB and other banks. "Banks are in a pickle and the only answer to their dilemma is if the Fed dramatically lowers interest rates," says VAN ALSTYNE. BOVE says that course of action is unlikely. "The Fed is beating inflation," says BOVE. Taking a deeper dive, BOVE sees increasing risk of a major Savings & Loan (S&L)-style crisis for smaller US banks in the current era of high interest rates and declining assets in bank portfolios. The S&L Crisis resulted in the collapse of about a third of the 3,234 savings and loan associations in America in the period 1986 and 1995. Joining the CONVERSATION, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE raises the prospects of a far deeper recession than many are anticipating as he reprises the recent analysis of market statesman and billionaire investor, RAY DALIO. Questions & Comments: Podcast@OdeonCap.com

The US Fed is firing on all cylinders as its campaign to tame inflation appears to be succeeding. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, came in at five percent in March on an annual basis, down from six percent in February after peaking at nine percent. It's the smallest 12-month increase since May 2021, and comes as the Fed has raised interest rates at the most aggressive pace in decades. "I think inflation will be dead a year from now," says DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. "I think inflation is going to come down rapidly." BOVE offers an analysis on the latest CPI data and explains the signs he sees of cooling inflation. Still, there could be pain. BOVE sees evidence of rising joblessness and unemployment ahead, and does not discount the possibility of a hard landing for the US economy. Meanwhile, the specter of inflation has punished the purchasing power of American consumers. MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, says the Fed has one good shot to stamp out this same inflation. For that reason, he expects the central bank to keep raising rates unless and until "something truly breaks" in the US economy. The CONVERSATION also looks at the so-called 'blowout' earnings numbers reported by US banks. BOVE, a veteran bank analyst, digs deep to offer us the reality behind the latest numbers. Elsewhere, we look at geopolitical tensions with the war in Ukraine. and nations acting out of step with the US. Our host, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE, strikes up a CONVERSATION on the Group of 7 nations pushing to diminish their economic dependence on China. Questions & Comments: Podcast@OdeonCap.com

A new study of US banks by DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, identified some ten percent as "challenged" among the selected group of banks, each with assets of over $10 billion. "The rapid shift from a recessionary environment to one heavily influenced by inflation has created serious challenges for many banks, " according to BOVE. "Banks are attempting to adjust to these changes but, in some cases, structural issues at some of these institutitons inhibit their ability to do so." The CONVERSATION also takes another look at the events that triggered the collapse of Silicon Valley and two other banks. BOVE lashes out at bank managers for the latest crisis from their "greed to maximise profits" to their risk management. MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, points the blame in part at the Dodd-Frank Act enacted after the global financial crisis to (ironically) curb risk. "These are tense times in the financial markets," BOVE says. Elsewhere, the CONVERSATION looks at the latest dip in the US unemployment rate. While this decline is clearly a positive, a gathering storm may finally be imminent. VAN ALSTYNE says the inverted yield curve is signalling a recession of dramatic scale which could impact Fed decision making. Still, there is some good news in the US manufacturing sector, with signs of green shoots. Joining the CONVERSATION is our host, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE. Questions & Comments: Podcast@OdeonCap.com

The US Fed's purchase of trillions of dollars in long duration securities at what is regarded as relatively low rates has had a more far-reaching impact on its book value than many may have realized, according to DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. If the Fed's net worth is adjusted by "marking" these securities to "market," its holdings translate into a negative net worth of $1 trillion, he says. Here's the thing: The Fed can no longer print money as it did in the past because printing money today has an unwelcome inflationary effect, he explains. On the one hand, the Fed is withdrawing money out of the US banking system and on the other, it is putting money back into the economy, he says. How it can reconcile both activities is questionable, he adds. Still, MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, questions whether the Fed's unprecedented financial affairs ultimately matters given the fractional nature of the banking system. This is built on an edifice of confidence and in the health of US banks, he says. The CONVERSATION also looks at the soaring US Federal debt, citing new statistics. “The government continues to believe it can borrow as much money as it wants and it continues to act, in fact, as if it is going to do so,” BOVE says. Turning attention to America on the world stage and China's muscular industrial policies, host JOHN AIDAN BYRNE presents a proposal to lure manufacturing production back to the US. Where is America in the midst of a flurry of international initiatives among China, Russia and nations in other hotspots who've taken decisive leads lately, ask BOVE and VAN ALSTYNE. Questions & Comments: Podcast@odeoncap.com  

On Tuesday, March 28, the US Senate held hearings on the swift collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the 16th largest bank in the US. By late last year, it had assets of about $209 billion. SVB's collapse, the second largest bank failure in US history, sent shock waves through the financial system worldwide. Fears and doubt were compounded by the failures of Silvergate and Signature Banks in the US, and the acquisition of Switzerland's troubled Credit Suisse by cross-town rival UBS. Another challenged US bank, First Republic, raised the stakes. DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, followed the Senate hearings closely, and sees banking changes ahead. He has sympathy for the lawmakers who said Federal regulators dropped the ball. "This [SVB collapse] is something the Federal Reserve is going to have to answer for," he says. BOVE also has his own questions about what happened at SVB from ignoring regulators' warnings to the propriety of bonuses paid at SVB. Regulations will now be tightened in multiple areas of the banking sector, according to BOVE. Meanwhile, MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, warns that the US may be in a so-called Minksy Moment, the end stages of an extended phase of economic prosperity that propels investors and consumers to take on excessive risk, leading eventually to a financial and economic disaster. Host JOHN AIDAN BYRNE raises the spectre of moral hazard, the slippery slope of endless rounds of bailouts and the consequent and dire threats to the foundations of the free enterprise system in America. Questions & Comments: Podcast@odeoncap.com

More than a week after the sudden collapse of SILICON VALLEY BANK, and the failures at SIGNATURE and SILVERGATE banks, the CONVERSATION picks up where we left off on our last Special Episode. We look at the financial wreckage of these disasters as well as the trouble at FIRST REPUBLIC BANK, and at UBS's agreement to purchase a troubled crosstown rival CREDIT SUISSE for over $3 billion. Veteran bank analyst DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, offers his accounting of today's state of the banking industry. Is the sector still in trouble, a state of rot? Are other banks still vulnerable? BOVE takes a close look at the financial and capital strength of the industry across multiple lines, to offer his informed opinion. "The risk managers were deficient at all of these banks when they didn't hedge [their risk] against 30-year Treasuries," says BOVE, responding to MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, adding that the same "deficiency" is evident across multiple financial institutions, including the US Fed in an era of rising interest rates. On the rescue of the US banking industry, BOVE singles out the banking industry itself for stepping up with capital for a sector in a crunch. "The salvation of the banking industry last week was not the Fed, " he says. The CONVERSATION also looks at the role of the media in the latest crisis. Finally, host JOHN AIDAN BYRNE raises questions about the dynamics of bank runs in an age of digital commerce. Questions & Comments: Podcast@odeoncap.com

This Special Episode of ODEON CAPITAL CONVERSATIONS examines the series of events that led to the sudden collapse of SILICON VALLEY BANK, ranked America's 16th largest bank, as well as the demise of SILVERGATE and SIGNATURE banks. The CONVERSATION will evaluate the impact on the industry, the financial system and on the broader economy. DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL CONVERSATIONS, a Wall Street veteran who has covered the banking sector for decades, offers his expert analysis on these latest banking events to rock the financial markets. MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, will present his own well-informed take and raises many of the most important questions. "This was a digital bank run, the likes of which we have never seen, which is why I think the [regulators] had to rescue the banks," says VAN ALSTYNE. According to BOVE, "Small depositors may not be the only ones questioning the banks." He adds: "Investors are clearly questioning the earnings numbers and returns being posted by the banks. For example, bankers have been using stock buy-backs to bolster earnings per share results at a faster rate than the grown in actual net income." Joining the CONVERSATION, our host JOHN AIDAN BYRNE reprises some of the key developments. Questions & Comments: Podcast@odeonap.com

The Fed has entered a new phase after fifteen years of Quantitative Easy (QE), or easy money. The "experiment" says DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, has gone very badly wrong. In this episode, he presents the quandary for the Fed in this period of rising interest rates with short term rates now rising faster than long rates. "This is the most threatening issue in the financial markets today," he says. In short, BOVE believes the Fed is now facing a unique Savings & Loans (S&L) type crisis. The S&L crisis from 1986 to 1996 was the failure of a large number of US savings and loan associations, a disaster fuelled by rising interest rates. "I'm sticking with my prediction," says MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, speaking generally about the Fed's challenges. "They're going to have to cut interest rates and commence QE before they want to because the economy is going to hit a lot more trouble." The CONVERSATION opens with an eye on the market's dependence on data rather than on investing concepts. BOVE dismisses this popular approach to tackling the latest course of the market, saying investors should look more closely at the fundamentals and create investment concepts. "It bothers me a lot," says BOVE. "It tells me these people have no idea what they are talking about, " he adds of market professionals who depend on data. The CONVERSATION also looks at the clearer signs and signals of the much debated recession anticipated by analysts. "It has been a running joke on Wall Street, this calling for a recession, " says host JOHN AIDAN BYRNE, as we examine the signs of a coming recession and BOVE parses the comments of two prominent bank CEOs. Questions & Comments: Podcast@odeoncap.com

DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, takes a close look at the full extent of the US Government's off-balance sheet debt. In doing so, he describes an immense financial burden, a sum as much as three to six times that of America's national debt now at $31.4 trillion. BOVE has studied the work of JAMES HAMILTON at the University of California and looked closely at other research to present a damning account of America's off-balance sheet liabilities. This debt burden, "the massive negative net worth of the US government," BOVE explains, arises from government guarantees for the financial obligations of multiple agencies in sectors from student lending to Social Security. Meanwhile, the CONVERSATION looks at the trajectory of interest rates on the heels of January's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report. The overall PCE rose 5.4 percent in January from a year ago, and was up 0.4 percent monthly. Investors were shocked at the January reading, which came in higher than expected, an outcome that has since challenged the market, BOVE says. He warns of the urgent need to control money printing and to tame inflation. MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, presents a scenario where the US Fed could, once again, resume a destructive course of massive money printing to shore up the economy. Joining the CONVERSATION is JOHN AIDAN BYRNE.

The CONVERSATION begins with the markets negative response to reports by Walmart and other large US retailers showing increased belt-tightening by cash-strapped consumers. The episode also examines whether America is in a financial crisis worse than is reported by the US government. While retail giant Walmart has reported strong sales in recent years, more of the spending is being diverted to the basic necessities like food, with more affluent and price-conscious consumers also rushing to Walmart to pick up deals. That is the view of many analysts including DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, who notes the rising number of upper income shoppers buying groceries at Walmart, a retailer traditionally the turf of lower-income households. "Consumers are stretching their dollars at Walmart, looking for more ways to save," said MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner. BOVE presents his analysis on the US trade deficit, which hit a record $1 trillion in 2022. How to pick investments in these volatile markets and in a global economy overshadowed by the rise of autocracies and the war in Ukraine, as well as fears of a pending recession? Start with a concept that has a long-term positive outlook, according to BOVE. He also presents the case for bank preferred securities. On the first anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the CONVERSATION asks how it could end peacefully for humanity. "Putin is a mass murderer," says BOVE. He is a vicious and crazed mad man, adds JOHN AIDAN BYRNE, noting the need for fearless and strong leaders to stand up to Putin. Questions & Comments: Podcast@OdeonCap.com

From the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report to DICK BOVE's comprehensive new report on the US economy, this episode of ODEON CAPITAL CONVERSATIONS is a timely analysis on some of the key happenings and events on Wall Street. "Disappointing" is how MAT VAN ALSYTNE describes the latest CPI report published this week, showing a slight overall decline in January in the yearly inflation rate to 6.4 percent, and an uptick on a monthly basis. "I thought that this would be the one," said VAN ALSTYNE, co-founder and managing partner at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, referring to his disappointment that the latest inflation numbers do not definitively show the Fed has taken control of inflation. "The Fed has never killed inflation until interest rates are above the CPI," he added later. What are the signs of recession? BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON, presents his in-depth findings including a battery of announced layoffs nationwide. VAN ALSTYNE points to the inverted yield curve. There are also signs of financial trouble in how the Fed navigates its campaign to tame inflation. One financial foot wrong could potentially torpedo the US economy as rising interest rates, debt servicing and the specter of inflation wreak havoc. Elsewhere the CONVERSATION picks up on a recent ODEON talk by Peter Zeihan, author of The End of the World Is Just Beginning. Joining the CONVERSATION is JOHN AIDAN BYRNE who pulls out a significant quote by Leo Tolstoy to calm nerves. Questions & Comments: Podcast@OdeonCap.com

DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, says calculating the number of people working in America every month is a mammoth task – and it's a task that cannot be properly done. That's why this veteran industry analyst is skeptical of the latest jobs report for January, and of the labor numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census Bureau. The surprising report shows a white hot jobs market in America far exceeding market expectations. With some 11 million job openings, almost twice as many jobs as available workers, BOVE describes the governmental reporting as, ‘the greatest farce known to mankind' and he attacks the methodology. MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, disagrees. What is important, he points out, is the quality of the trend line in the labor statistics which he sees as holding up. Also on this episode, the Conversation examines how US banks may face pressure from the ranks of government to raise interest rates on deposit and savings accounts for customers. BOVE offers historical context, noting how a former House Banking Chair, HENRY GONZALEZ, was outraged when banks did not pass along price increases to customer as loan rates were rising. Joining the wide-ranging Conversation is JOHN AIDAN BYRNE. Questions & Comments: Podcast@OdeonCap.com

DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, provides an in-depth analysis of US GDP and the Real GDP, as he examines variables such as inventory, from durable goods and non-durables and services, and takes a closer look at the GDP deflator. His study provides direction on the course of inflation in the US economy as well as on Real GDP. As the Fed meets this week on interest rates, MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, issues a stark warning on the cost of servicing the balooning US debt. "We're getting to the point of no return if [the Fed] keeps raising rates," says VAN ALSTYNE, referring to the astonishing $400 billion interest payments on the Federal debt. "Reality is going to hit us when the Fed is still printing money, or has to print money just to afford all the interest on the debt." Japan may also have its own rude awakening one day as its monetary math won't work for it in the long term, VAN ALSTYNE says. (On Wednesday, Feb 1, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point – to a range of 4.5% to 4.75% – at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting.) Elsewhere, BOVE says customers of many US banks have "had it" and are transferring their deposits and funds from these banks to other institutions and rivals. Bove says billions of dollars have been withdrawn by customers for higher rates and superior yields elsewhere on their money. "Banks are too greedy and did not pass along rate increases," says BOVE. The CONVERSATION also looks at what it means for the top 100 US corporate pension funds which have seen the upside of higher interest rates. Joining the CONVERSATION is JOHN AIDAN BYRNE. Questions & Comments: Podcast@Odeoncap.com