Podcasts about beacon economics

President Trump is promising that tomorrow will be “Liberation Day” when he rolls out another round of tariffs. California, a major trading partner with Mexico and Canada, is right in the cross hairs of the tariff tumult. Scott is joined by Christopher Thornberg, an economist and founding partner of Beacon Economics, to unpack the impact on California industries.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

San Francisco's commercial real estate struggles, Oakland's looming bankruptcy concerns, and the broader economic headwinds facing the Bay Area take center stage in this episode. Chris Thornberg of Beacon Economics and public policy analyst Marc Joffe join senior reporter Keeley Webster to discuss the impact of hybrid work trends, housing shortages, tax policies, and what it will take for these cities to stabilize their financial futures.

San Francisco has 30 million square feet of empty office space. If it was converted to apartments, given our average apartment size of 756 sf that would create over 39,000 new dwellings. Is that the solution to our housing shortage ?

Is California a failing state or are its' best days yet to come ?

One of the most visited areas of San Francisco during the holiday season is Union Square. People flock to that part of the city to complete their Christmas shopping, gather with friends to ice skate, and during the rest of the year, they go there to dine at the Cheesecake Factory and enjoy the view from the top of Macy's.  But all that could change as the New York-based company announced today 150 stores will close across the nation as early as next year, and the iconic Union Square location is on the chopping block. For a closer look, KCBS Radio news anchor Bret Burkhart spoke with Chris Thornberg, founding partner of Beacon Economics in today's edition of The State of California.

With Dr. Christopher Thornberg, Founding Partner of Beacon Economics

With Dr. Christopher Thornberg, Founding Partner of Beacon Economics

With Christopher Thornberg, Founding Partner of Beacon Economics

Christopher Thornberg, founder of Beacon Economics and Marc Joffe, a senior policy analyst at Cato Institute, drill down into the economic health of the San Francisco Bay Area amid widely-reported tech industry layoffs.

With Dr. Christopher Thornberg, Founder & Principal at Beacon Economics

The retailer Costco has famously sold its hot dog and soda combo for $1.50 for nearly 40 years. In fact, the big box store's founder, Jim Sinegal, reportedly once told the company's current CEO Craig Jelinek, “If you raise the (price of the) effing hot dog, I will kill you.” Now, Costco's competitor Sam's Club is offering the same deal for $1.38 in an effort to ease the burden on consumers. As inflation causes the prices of other commodities to rise, does the cheap hot dog combo really make an impact on consumers' bottom line? Chris Thornberg, the founder of Beacon Economics, joins Mike Rogers to get to the root cause of inflation, discuss retail strategy, and yes... hot dogs.

With Christopher Thornberg, Principal & Founding Partner of Beacon Economics

Gov. Gavin Newsom signed California's FAST Recovery Act on Labor Day, authorizing the creation of a council aimed to set minimum labor standards in fast food franchises. The council, composed of workers, franchise owners, corporate representatives and state officials, would also have the power to raise the minimum wage for fast food employees to $22. Of the 550,000 fast food workers in the state, most earn near minimum wage: $15 statewide for businesses with 26 or more employees, and higher in certain cities like San Francisco, where it's $16.32. Advocates of the legislation say it would also create better redress for wage theft and health and safety hazards. Critics have filed a referendum to block the law and turn it into a ballot measure. We'll talk about how the FAST Recovery Act could affect California's economy and its fast food workers. Guests: Ken Jacobs, chair, Center for Labor Research and Education at UC Berkeley. Farida Jhabvala Romero, labor correspondent, KQED. Christopher Thornberg, director, Center for Economic Forecasting and Development, UC Riverside School of Business; founding partner, Beacon Economics. Crystal Orozco, worker, McDonald's in Sacramento.

There has been a big surge in wine consumption on a macro level in recent years. California production is down due to both the removal of acres and climate challenges. Because national production cannot keep up with demand, imports have increased. Dr. Christopher Thornberg, Founding Partner at Beacon Economics and Director of UC Riverside Center for Economic Forecasting looks at big picture economic themes in the wine industry. From differentiation with sustainability, to an economic perspective on pricing water use, to the need for regional marketing efforts. Collaborating with the industry, local partners, and government can bolster the success for all people coming together to make great wines.   References: 83: Sustainability: An Advantage in any Market (Podcast) Beacon Economics California and U.S. Wine Production (Wine Institute) Central Coast Economic Forecast Christopher Thornberg's Biography Eco-Certifications Increase Sales Economic Impact of California Wine (Wine Institute) SIP Certified Sustainable Ag Expo November 14-16, 2022 | Use code PODCAST for $50 off UC Riverside Center for Economic Forecasting & Development Get More Subscribe wherever you listen so you never miss an episode on the latest science and research with the Sustainable Winegrowing Podcast. Since 1994, Vineyard Team has been your resource for workshops and field demonstrations, research, and events dedicated to the stewardship of our natural resources. Learn more at www.vineyardteam.org. Transcript Craig Macmillan  0:00  My guest today is Dr. Christopher Thornberg. He is a founding partner of Beacon Economics and he's the director of the UC Riverside Center for Economic Forecasting. Dr. Thornberg, thank you for being with us.   Dr. Christopher Thornberg  0:11  Great to be here.   Craig Macmillan  0:12  You are an economic forecaster, macro economic forecaster. And you have a lot of experience in all kinds of things. This is a wine show, obviously, wine and grapes. How do you see the role of wine in the bigger kind of economic picture in the United States?   Unknown Speaker  0:29  Yes, you know, is interesting. I'm a macro economist, I'm based here in California, I spend a lot of my time talking about big things, interest rates, inflation, consumer spending. But at the same time as a California based guy is a guy who's done lots of talks in wine country, I've also become relatively cognizant, shall we say, of the ebbs and flows of Ag and the wine economy in general, right here. In California. Obviously, when you think about places like Sonoma or Napa, it's incredibly important part of not only local production, but local tourism. And as such, you always have to walk, you know, sort of watch what's happening in these spaces in these industries. Now, of course, when you think about California wine, when you think about US wine, from a macro perspective, there are two things that are happening simultaneously over the last couple of years. The first thing has happened is another big surge in wine consumption, you think about the history of wine, we saw big gains and consumption in the early part of the century, it plateaued for a number of years. And all of a sudden, over the last few years, yet again, wine consumption on a per person basis is going up, people are buying good wine. So we know from a consumption standpoint, demand is strong. The other interesting part of this, of course has to do with the fact that California wine production is down. It's down, in part because of the removal of some acreage. But it's also of course down because we've had not exactly the best weather over the last couple of years. And so you do have this interesting situation whereby California production has not been able to keep up with, if you will, national demand. One of the results of that, of course, has been an enormous surge of imports into the United States. So so times are good from an external standpoint, but obviously producers here in the state are facing some substantial headwinds, whether we're talking about land, whether climate labor, and of course, the real question is, is how does this thing shake out? Where does this thing hit?   Craig Macmillan  2:25  That's what everybody's wondering, you know, the investment in vineyards and wineries is substantial. Everybody wants one I've discovered in my consulting career, everybody wants to get in not always such a great idea that takes a lot of capital. And it takes a long time. Many wineries are losing money for 10 years or more before you even get close to breaking even depending on the product and the place. I have had many conversations about well, what can we do to kind of protect us, you know, what can we do to kind of, you know, get it get ahead of imports? What can we do to make our product special? So that can we be protected from some of this? And I would love to know your thoughts on how can a producer of a good like wine or wine grapes goes into wine? What things can they do to try to gain a bigger market share, again, something like imports or how to protect themselves against losing more of the marketplace.   Unknown Speaker  3:16  I don't think California wines are losing market share. Like if you look at the numbers, for example, crop prices, they're way up, they're doing very well. Sonoma's prices are very high Napa's prices are very high. I mean, to give you a sense, remember I get I focus on the entire state. And I always have to point out that there are more acres of wine grape production in Fresno by a good margin than there are in Sonoma, Napa combined. Now a lot of people outside the state are shocked by that. But then I have to point out you know, California box-o-wine on some the bottom shelf there in the supermarket. That's all made in Fresno. It's a perfectly reasonable part of market as the case may be. But it's a different kind of situation. It is a commodity product, as opposed to the name brand products that are made, of course in the vintage regions. And so when we have this conversation, the question is which part of the conversation are we going to have? Right? Are we talking about the prestige dub? Are we talking about the commodity stuff? Obviously, where you're located, you'd say the prestige stuff is, is more important, in a lot of ways. The prestige wines are doing fine, but the prestige wine industry in general has a problem. And the problem is you already said it that people want to be in the industry. It is a an ego industry. Everybody who makes a gazillion in finance wants to have a winery. That's how you impress your friends. Correct. You're in Wall Street. And so you do have a lot of guys coming in. Primarily guys, I appreciate the sexism involved there but I think we know that the guys are coming in buying these. These ego wineries, if you will, are predominantly men. What they're doing is flooding the market with a tremendous amount of great products in a very odd way, because they don't care as much about profit margins. Now what happens, of course, is, if you are that small winemaker who doesn't want to go commodity, you're the small one winemaker who wants to make a quality product, you suddenly find yourself between the rock and proverbial rock and the hard place. The rock are the commodity guys, and the hard place are those rich guys who don't care about a profit, and how you navigate in between those. And, you know, as a macro economist, I'll be the first person to tell you I don't have any clue.   Craig Macmillan  5:36  Business Strategy thing there.   Unknown Speaker  5:37  It obviously is a narrow path you have to walk in, and in general, they do I know enough small, high quality wine growers, you know, you can do it. But you got to be modest in terms of your ability to, shall we say, have great success here, you're going to have to be very careful as you navigate that.   Craig Macmillan  5:55  You know, this actually, this reminds me of a conversation I've had many, many times, and that is how do we make ourselves stand out? Yeah, we need people to know us, we need people to respect that we do. And there's different kinds of ways you can do that. You can try to get people to say, oh, this is the best quality product, everybody jumps up and down. But how do you communicate that that's tough, you need scores, reviews, things like that, that you have no control over. Or you can say it's a price based thing. So we're going to try to be a bargain brand, we're gonna have this level of quality at this lower price, right? Makes sense. But there's also lots of other kinds of signaling something called virtue, virtue signaling, where you can say, hey, there's this other thing about us, that makes us really special. And some of it has to do with maybe family, a lot of wineries really focus on the fact that it's a family business. And you know, we're we're kind of the working class heroes, even though we have this amazing property in this edifice, winery bootstraps and that's great. There's also virtue signaling around sustainability, I have kind of wondered whether that signaling how effective that is. So for instance, this organization Vineyard Team has a sustainability certification called SIP sustainability in practice, and lots of folks have gotten certified folks who are making really good quality wine, folks whose farming practices I am familiar with, and we also certified wineries and they're doing a great job. One of the things I've always wondered is how responsive are consumers to things like virtue signaling? Do you have an idea how how people respond to that kind of thing?   Unknown Speaker  7:21  Yeah, no, no, no, listen, there's a whole literature on this in economics. We know virtue signaling is incredibly important in more industries than just wine. I mean, whether your whole foods, pretending you're organic, because they're not really in hand, or, or in so many other places. virtue signaling is a singular part of business, particularly today in this era, where there's a lot of concerns about the environment where things are going. So to me, I think it's something that the industry continues to need to invest in, along with what I would call the other kind of branding items. One of the things that got me into wine in general was my explorations of California wine country, which again, we all have to keep in mind. I think a lot of wineries find their best clients are often the ones who wander into their winery for that tasting. And one of the questions is, is Nomad as a region, making sufficient efforts on making wine tasting available to folks on a more regular basis? How are they going about especially now in the post COVID area, when if people suddenly have a myriad of potential attractions available to them? How is the region standing out there among all these other things that are now available to people after a couple years of closure and say, Hey, no, no, no, you still need to come back here. You need to come to Sonoma. Get up here to Healdsburg get out there to, you know, and Russian River products and how do you encourage them to be there? So I think that aspect right now has to be heavily in the minds of, of local development.   Craig Macmillan  8:59  So one of the things that I've observed, certainly on the Central Coast, and I think it applies in other areas as well, definitely, you have vineyards that are really production oriented, and selling their grapes out of the area, places like Napa Sonoma, for the Central Coast as an example. Then you have a couple of pioneers that try and say, hey, we're gonna keep some of this, they do well, that brings other people into the game. And then eventually, there's a need for other kind of other auxillary businesses and activities to come along. So you need hotels, you need restaurants, you get horseback riding and balloon rides, and then people start to come for a variety of reasons, as well as not just wine or even if they come for wine, they start to enjoy other things. How important do you think that is for creating a stable marketplace for the wine industry or encouraging the growth of the market for wine?   Unknown Speaker  9:46  Yeah, it listen, it's incredibly important for a number of reasons. Obviously, ultimately, your best customers are the customers who come to the winery who join your wine club who get that every three months case of wine. Every winery wants those direct people and the direct people are the ones are going to show up in a room. So you say you need to be part of a concerted effort locally to build the wine tourism industry. And yes, by the way, that means you have to have other attractions as well, as anyone who's gone wine tasting can tell you, after about four or five wineries, you're not tasting much of anything anymore. Yeah, yeah, you really need to have other things to do for the rest of the day. And that means having again, an economic development strategy locally that tries to build up the entire tourism industry, it's the restaurants, it's the hotels, secondary attractions, and how do you tie them all together? And how do you build those regional collaborations that benefit everybody? How do you build the money necessary for that? The other thing, of course, ultimately, is that by doing that, you're driving the long run brand. You know, everybody knows Napa, you go anywhere in the world, you say Napa, people know Napa, you get to Paso Robles, there's some awareness, certainly better than it was 20 years ago, but nowhere near that of Napa. But over time, as you get more clients, high end clients who were serving the local wine at a dinner party, other people get aware of it. And it builds up until the point that you to have, if you will, almost that international reputation of a place like Napa. Now, what's interesting is, you know, when we think about this, particularly here in California, there is what I would call those those organizational outreach efforts. How do we make this all work for everybody outside, but here in California, we have an interesting problem is we don't make it very easy for local governments to do these kinds of things. Because here in California, for example, we don't build enough housing. You know, the Paso Robles region, for example, is shockingly devoid of multifamily housing, but it's multifamily housing you need for those young folks who are just trying to break into the industry, for the folks who are going to work in your wine tasting room or work in these restaurants. If you're not building multifamily, how are you going to build your labor force and able to be able to man, all these tourist operations, it has to be really a combined vision, because there's a lot of things that go sideways in these efforts. And ultimately, if you will diminish the the all you know, it's interesting, I'm an economist. And so at some level, I always come to the conversation with a big role to be played by the market, right. That's what economists are all about the market. But what we're talking about here is a brand reputation, which is a social product, we own it jointly, if you're in Pasco, if you're in Sonoma, if you're in the Finger Lakes, if you're in, in Walla Walla, Washington, you all own commonly that brand, and you have to have a local conversation to make sure you're all doing the right thing to support that brand. And that means you desperately need local, some sort of local cooperation. Typically public doesn't have to be could be a nonprofit, or public private partnership, whatever it is, but you need to have those institutions there to drive the whole thing forward. The good news is yet again, wine is one of those things that kind of attracts everybody's attention. It's almost like Hollywood, but slightly less evil. And if you can get people interested, because it's fun, it gets people to the table. But you have to have that regional collaboration, you got to make sure people are there. And it takes these kinds of community conversations.   Craig Macmillan  13:31  Are there organizations, people positions, that should be could be leadership in that process? And what role did the producers themselves have in this process, because like you said, I need to have folks who can work for me at a wage that I can afford to pay. And quite frankly, I need it to be stable. I don't want to put a year of in training, and it's very specialized thing, and then have them bail, and have to start all over again. I want to have employees that are happy, and they're confident they're settled. So what role does something like the grower community having this effect? I mean, do you go to meetings and say, hey, we need housing? Do you go to the politicians and say, hey, we were gonna lobby you to take this seriously? What's the strategy?   Unknown Speaker  14:13  My personal advice on that is, again, every region should have some sort of public private partnership, right? You build up some sort of local wine tourism chamber, if you will. And you bring in public plank, private clients, you put money into a kitty and use that to push forward the kind of conversations necessary, whether it's about branding, tourism or local, if you will, development needs, you got to have everybody at the table for that kind of coordination and cooperation, for better or for worse. The nice thing about government in this particular case is they can enforce if you will, some sort of fairness and supportive such an organization. One of the things I always worry about when it comes to the strictly private nonprofits I get like a Chamber of Commerce is the tendency for free riding, you're always gonna have two winemakers who are going to be very happy to, shall we say, take advantage of making money off the name brand, but they're not going to participate in the in that social efforts. And it's good to have a little authority, if you will, to make sure everybody's contributing at some level to ultimately, what's good for the social good. So that's helpful as well. And of course, that one of the bigger issues here has to do with how such organizations deal with whatever called some of the broader pressures we're dealing with. Because like, when you talk about housing, it's not just ag, right? It's everybody. And they have to be there to bring wines point of view to the table, when you have planning meetings, when you're discussing the lack of multifamily that has to be the voice of the community at those particular tables. That's, of course, particularly profound here in California. But there's been a big decline in wine production state over the last couple of years. And it's because we've had some pretty hideous weather, incredibly dry. We know we are in a big water shortage, the ag industry in general has got to be part of the solution to water shortages here in the state. And by the way, it behooves the wind industry to be part of the process to get ag to the table. You know, it's interesting, when you think about the water shortages that we're dealing with right now, a lot of folks point at, say, for example, nuts, there's, that's a big enemy. No, until we're growing nuts, how dare we grow nuts in this state,.   Craig Macmillan  16:30  So many gallons to produce a pound almonds, that was the big one a couple of years ago.   Unknown Speaker  16:33  But what's the value of that pound of almond see, you have to think about the dollars coming off the trees coming off the vine or treesout of the ground, it's not gallons per pound that matters, it's gallons per dollar that matters. And the problem you have with water in the state of California, is this just allocated on the basis of 120 year old agreements, there's no economic logic used to assign where that water is used. It's not just oh, take it away from the farmers to get into the cities, we have to understand that high value crops suffer as well. So it behooves everybody in the ag industry to come to the table to have these conversations. Because if you're not there, if you're if you're part of this, what's almost seems to me to be a boycott of negotiations over water, that's what ag is, right now, we're just boycotting this, if you even if you even bring it up, we're gonna we're gonna ask you, do you think people should stop eating eventhough that's a ridiculous question, you can't do that. You got to be at the table, you got to acknowledge the problems, acknowledges solutions and work towards a compromise. And again, I think the wine industry, the wine grape industry, here in the state has a lot to say about this. And they should be part of that conversation that should be part of pushing that conversation.   Craig Macmillan  18:02  So this is a really interesting division they've seen philosophically amongst growers, and also other areas. If I have pumps, if I have wells on my land, the water that comes out of that, well, is that a private good? Is that benefits me, and is not somebody else's property? Or is it a public good, that I'm taking advantage of and we're all going to hit a tragedy of the commons? Well, okay, I'm using a bunch of terminology that and that's where a lot of conflict comes from is if I'm treating it as a private good, or am I being quote unquote, responsible. You hear people say that, and this treating it like a public good, then what kind of benefit am I getting for what I'm doing? So I very much get your point, I would love to hear a little bit more about if I am drawing a public good and much like grazing sheep on the commons, where it came from, but I'm contributing to the economy. I'm hiring people, I'm paying wages and paying taxes, protecting this land from some other use. That's another thing.   Unknown Speaker  18:58  I don't I don't like that term at all.   Craig Macmillan  19:00  Okay, go ahead. Hit me.   Unknown Speaker  19:03  You're protecting the land from another use. What does that mean?   Craig Macmillan  19:06  Oh, it's an open space argument. If you if you consider vineyards to be open space, then I'm keeping this land in open space, as opposed to letting a big housing development go in.   Unknown Speaker  19:15  Okay, well, first of all, we have more wealth, way more wind acreage, and we have need for new housing in California at the moment. So I'm a little dubious of that specific argument. And I think that the whole idea of market economics is it allows whatever scarce resource to be used at its greatest possible potential. If a hunk of land is more valuable as houses than it is winegrapes, then we should be building housing there. That's the logical economic outcome. Unless there's some sort of externality we can point to and there may well be there's a value to open space that often doesn't get priced into these conversations. That's a completely different debate for a completely I think different show is as the case may be. But in general, look, let me put it this way. Water is a public good. It just is. We know that. All right, nobody owns the water, the water under your land is part of a massive aquifer. It's not just under your land is sloshes over the place, just like the river running by your farm, it has people upstream and downstream. And you don't want the people upstream of you taking all the water before it gets to you. I don't think you should be allowed to take all the water for gets the next person down the way, we again have to have a cooperative solution for how to deal with this water question. Now in general, if we acknowledge it's a public good, there should be a public price for the product. It's as simple as that people should be paying for the water they use, which they don't do in this state. At any real level, our water agencies charge people on the basis of cost, which is not a market price, it's not the relevant figure, we need to price water at a level that will basically constrain usage to a reasonable sustainable amount. Now guess what? The good news for wine grape growers, particularly for higher end wine grape growers, is you'll be able to afford a higher price. Why? Because you're producing a high profit margin usually, sometimes water is not your cost, you could do it. Whereas folks would probably get pushed out as yeah, I would anticipate that some hay farmers may no longer grow hay. Now, by the way, before we feel sad for the Hey, farmers, remember, if I'm talking about using a market, that, hey, farmers are going to get paid for not using their water. And by the way, they will almost assuredly make a hell of a lot more money selling their water than they are selling the hay. Yet again, we end up with a good social outcome all the way around. This is a win win win proposition that I'm suggesting here. But again, it's amazing the mental lock we have when it comes to having conversations about applying even basic market mechanisms to water consumption. When as a quote unquote capitalist economy, we seem to rely on markets to supply most of our basic day to day goods. It's interesting. Yeah.   Craig Macmillan  22:14  So this is just my perspective. I'm curious, would you agree that there's a lot of resistance to the idea of paying for water?   Unknown Speaker  22:19  We already pay for water. I mean, everybody pays a little bit, but obviously, the are wildly different. What I pay for my water at my house in Los Angeles is completely different than what the guy's paying for water for hay in Imperial County, which is different than what the winegrape farmer in Fresno is paying for his water. So we all pay completely different prices. For the most part, those prices are way below what they should be. Really all ends up being some bureaucrat out there saying okay, well you're paying under so you can only consume X amount. Again, that's the wrong way of doing things. We really want prices to be more equilibrated. It means allowing the market to set some sort of price, and then allowing the various market participants to purchase what they can economically do at that price level. Is it complicated? Not to go off topic here. But let me just your typical, I've done some of these calculations, your typical hay farmer Imperial County makes about from best case scenario, 15 to maybe $50 per acre foot of water, they used to grow hay, right? There is debate going on in Orange County right now about opening and desal plant, that desal plant to be clear will produce water at something on the order of 2000 to $2,300 per acre foot. And of course, that doesn't even include the environmental damage such plants create because they are bad for the oceans. We know that. Why would we do that? Why is it Orange County's paying those farmers in Imperial I don't know. let's give them $400 An acre foot that's roughly 10 times what they're making growing hay. By the way, that still leaves you $1,600 An acre foot to do environmental remediation. Move the water to Orange County. Economic remediation if you think parts of the Imperial County will suffer because there's less hay being grown. I'm not sure what it would be but maybe there's somebody getting hurt their. To me there's so much money being left over how can this state be anything but better off with that transaction taking place? The only as far as I can tell the only agents who suffer are the cows and horses in Korean and Japan are going to be denied their lunch.   Craig Macmillan  24:42  You do have to put the frame on you do have to put on the box. You know what area are we looking at and what's a rational box to draw? And then who are the players in that box and what's the resource and how much resources there right here are you talking about the making a market for Wwater. Aren't markets, volatile, unpredictable, potentially dangerous? I mean, that's a value loaded word. I know, but.   Unknown Speaker  25:09  What does that mean? Exactly? We have markets for apartments and market for home and markets, gas markets for milk. They work everywhere. What really were afraid of a market. Since when? This is a market economy. There are places that markets don't work very well. I agree with that, by the way, health care markets horrendous. We don't we don't need markets running health care. That's a separate conversation for a different podcast. I'd you know, I just opened up a massive can there. But when it comes to this, isn't this isn't healthcare, water is water. And markets make sense.   Craig Macmillan  25:44  Again, how would a group of growers engage that? Can you see wine grape growers being leaders because their crop is different. That's again, one of these things we've had danger in a multi-ag, in multi crop counties is like the wine folks, you're gonna like, hey, we don't use anywhere near what these guys use. But you don't want to throw that out there. You want to throw that stone because we need to get them involved right in the plan. And yet winemakers have a couple of things going for them. Number one, they have prestige. So I think that they get attention. They have a commonality that I think holds them together better than other crops, because everybody's in the same boat. And yeah, commodity growers are in the same boat. But I've seen this in wine where people are a little bit more willing to get together. There is a lot of conflict within the group, obviously. Can you see growers being proactive towards this process and saying, hey, we think this is a good idea, we think this will not only help us we'll have everybody else does the sustainability aspect here because people want to be sustainable. So they're going to be looking for things that say, Hey, this is going to help us have water and also we're gonna be able to use it equitably. Can you see the movement there? What does that look like? Or have you seen examples of this kind of thing in other situations?   Unknown Speaker  25:44  listen, where your hometown Paso Robles, the classic case of this, right, because we know there that there's our growers and buyers who are heavily involved with local water conversations. They can have an they should have a seat at the table, whether it's local, or statewide, or national. The industry's sustainability, at some level is ultimately tied to the sustainability of overall agriculture in the state, just like your sustainability, as a brand is going to be tied to your local branding and tourist efforts. You have to understand the broader macro nature of the world you exist in and be part of those broader processes. By the way, what I just said is true, not just for conversations about water, or housing, it's conversations about politics in general, not to go too far off into left field here. But a lot of Americans right now feel completely alienated from politics as it exists right now in the US, you look at both parties who are talking about topics and conversations that seem almost completely bizarrely foreign to your actual day to day living your world. And you wonder how we got here. And again, it's a function of a lack of participation. We are social creatures, we exist within a community. And when the community starts going directions, we don't understand, then we have to look in the mirror and ask, is it because I'm not being part of those conversations? And if so, how do I become part of those conversations? How do I get involved? And the answer is being a leader yourself, or supporting organizations that are going to go out and lead on your behalf. It's about being involved, which, again, when you're trying to build a brand, when you're trying to make sure you have enough workers on the wine farm and in the wine tasting shop, I appreciate how hard that is. If you're relying on somebody else to make the right decision, well, then you're not going to be able to, shall we say have a moral high ground to complain when the decision is not what should happen have happened. We have to remember that we have to remember that the that the broader ag community, wine producers wine grape producers can be part of this broader conversation. And indeed they should.   Craig Macmillan  29:16  And perhaps they need to be.   Dr. Christopher Thornberg  29:18  Yes, I think so.   Craig Macmillan  29:19  We're talking about an imperative here. Yeah. Yeah. And that probably applies to lots of other things. We've seen it with habitat. We've seen it around pesticide use. We've seen our worker equity, and a lot of really positive things have happened in the last 20 or 30 years. This is the next one. I go back and I look at sustainability reports. And it was from various companies and I see lots of stuff about habitat. I see a lot of stuff about workers, electricity starting to show up more and more. They almost never touch on pesticides. That's like the third rail, which is too bad because the industry has been doing a much better job last 30 years than they did but then the one thing that I always noticed is missing is water. There's nothing about really what are we doing about water in some cases they do, don't get me wrong. Some folks are very out there saying, Hey, look at what we're doing, but a lot of them are not. And I think that may have to become, like you said, part of the identity and big focus for how people behave, and getting involved at different levels.   Dr. Christopher Thornberg  30:11  And now more than ever, because we all know that California is drying out as part of the climate change that's around us. We still have lots of water. You know, I keep saying I've always say that we don't have, if you will, a drought in as much as we really don't have enough water to go around. We do if you actually sat down and applied basic water conservation efforts, you would actually see we have plenty of water in this day, we just have to use a smarter, that's where we just fall over. Because we don't seem to be able to get to that conversation that ag can change, they can continue to thrive through this process. You we got to stop the whole, every time there's any kind of conversation about change. The first place we go is existential threat, you know?   Craig Macmillan  31:05  Yeah, exactly. Oh, yeah. Threat to my life. That's a tough one. That's a tough one. It's a very basic kind of socio sociological, psychological reaction. You know, the change is like, Oh, my lifestyles threatened. Me, and my family has done this for 1000 years, whatever, which completely aligns the fact that you okay, your people been on the land for 150 years, but they weren't wearing sneakers. You're wearing sneakers now. They weren't wearing blue jeans, you're wearing blue jeans. They didn't have diesel powered tractors, you have diesel powered tractors now. And all of those things, some of them are about just changes in society and the way people dress and and culture, but also a lot of it's about efficiency.   Dr. Christopher Thornberg  31:42  And you didn't have 40 living in California, and you didn't have a 20 year drought behind you. The world is not same nor should your life be.   Craig Macmillan  31:53  And it's not gonna be Yeah, well, that's great. This is pretty much the time that we've got, I would love to just sit down and like have a beer with you. This is I was gonna, I was gonna ask you about Veblen goods. But I think that might be a totally different show, not a different episode. What is what is one thing you'd recommend to our listeners just in general.   Dr. Christopher Thornberg  32:13  I exist in a world as an economist right now, where there are economic realities. And then there are public narratives. In the 25, 30 years, I've been studying the economy, never have I seen such a massive gap between public narratives and the economic data. How many times does the newspaper use the term cliff were at the cliff edge, we're on the constantly right, and we have panicked ourselves to ridiculous point. And as a result of that, we paralyzed ourselves for fears that don't actually exist. So my one advice to everybody out there is turn off the crisis mode, you got to turn it off, let it go. The world changes, we all have to sit down and understand that. And from a community standpoint, we could figure out the best way to move forward, if we can have conversations about how we all adapt together. But if everybody's screaming under the world, everybody's screaming crisis, everybody's creating an existential threat where it doesn't exist. Again, we're paralyzed. Thus, we cannot respond to crises. Thus, the crises become that much worse. By not allowing that mentality to exist, we can actually take these things on, and all be better off, but it means Yeah, it means taking a step back and being a little less selfish and, and a little more willing to hear other people's opinions and outputs and and moving accordingly. We live in and I think we live in a period of time where people are having a tough time with that. And that's we again, you gotta look in the mirror.   Craig Macmillan  33:48  That is great advice. Very insightful. Where can people find out more about you?   Unknown Speaker  33:52  Yeah, well, Beacon Economics, beaconecon.com. We do all sorts of stuff. You'll find some stuff I write on a regular basis, which goes around to a lot of these topics we touched on here, so www.beaconecon.com.   Craig Macmillan  34:05  Our guest today was Dr. Christopher Thornberg, founding partner of Beacon Economics and director of EC UC Riverside Center for Economic Forecasting. Dr. Thornberg, thank you so much. This has been a real pleasure. This has been really really fun for me.   Unknown Speaker  34:18  Absolutely. Me as well. I enjoyed the conversation.   Transcribed by https://otter.ai

With Christopher Thornberg, Principal and Founding Partner of Beacon Economics

Originally from upstate New York, Dr. Thornberg holds a Ph.D in Business Economics from The Anderson School at UCLA, and a B.S. degree in Business Administration from the State University  of New York at Buffalo.Christopher Thornberg founded Beacon Economics LLC in 2006.  Dr. Thornberg also became  Director of the UC Riverside School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development and an Adjunct Professor at the School.Prior to launching Beacon Economics, Dr. Thornberg was a senior economist with UCLA's Anderson Forecast. He previously taught in the MBA program at UCLA's Anderson School, in the Rady School of Business at UC San Diego, and at Thammasat University in Bangkok, ThailandAn expert in economic and revenue forecasting, regional economics, economic policy, and labor and real estate markets, Dr. Thornberg has consulted for private industry, cities, counties, and public agencies in Los Angeles, San Francisco and the Bay Area, San Diego, the Inland Empire, Seattle, Orange County, Sacramento, Nevada, and other geographies across the nation. Dr. Thornberg became nationally known for forecasting the subprime mortgage market crash that began in 2007, and was one of the few economists on record to predict the global economic recession that followed. Well known for his ability to capture and hold audiences, Dr. Thornberg has presented to hundreds of leading business, government, and nonprofit organizations across the globe including Chevron, The New Yorker, Colliers International, the California Chamber of Commerce, City National Bank, the California State Association of Counties, State Farm Insurance, the City of Los Angeles, the California and Nevada Credit Union League, and the  National Steel and Shipbuilding Company, among many others.The Norris Group originates and services loans in California and Florida under California DRE License 01219911, Florida Mortgage Lender License 1577, and NMLS License 1623669.  For more information on hard money lending, go www.thenorrisgroup.com and click the Hard Money tab.Video LinkRadio Show

Originally from upstate New York, Dr. Thornberg holds a Ph.D in Business Economics from The Anderson School at UCLA, and a B.S. degree in Business Administration from the State University  of New York at Buffalo.Christopher Thornberg founded Beacon Economics LLC in 2006.  Dr. Thornberg also became  Director of the UC Riverside School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development and an Adjunct Professor at the School.Prior to launching Beacon Economics, Dr. Thornberg was a senior economist with UCLA's Anderson Forecast. He previously taught in the MBA program at UCLA's Anderson School, in the Rady School of Business at UC San Diego, and at Thammasat University in Bangkok, ThailandAn expert in economic and revenue forecasting, regional economics, economic policy, and labor and real estate markets, Dr. Thornberg has consulted for private industry, cities, counties, and public agencies in Los Angeles, San Francisco and the Bay Area, San Diego, the Inland Empire, Seattle, Orange County, Sacramento, Nevada, and other geographies across the nation. Dr. Thornberg became nationally known for forecasting the subprime mortgage market crash that began in 2007, and was one of the few economists on record to predict the global economic recession that followed. Well known for his ability to capture and hold audiences, Dr. Thornberg has presented to hundreds of leading business, government, and nonprofit organizations across the globe including Chevron, The New Yorker, Colliers International, the California Chamber of Commerce, City National Bank, the California State Association of Counties, State Farm Insurance, the City of Los Angeles, the California and Nevada Credit Union League, and the  National Steel and Shipbuilding Company, among many others.The Norris Group originates and services loans in California and Florida under California DRE License 01219911, Florida Mortgage Lender License 1577, and NMLS License 1623669.  For more information on hard money lending, go www.thenorrisgroup.com and click the Hard Money tab.Video LinkRadio Show

US inflation hit 9.1% in June, the highest in more than 40 years, intensifying pressure on the Federal Reserve Board to raise interest rates even more The stock market remains volatile and wobbly, but unemployment remains at historic lows, and while the economy is sluggish, are worries about a looming recession legitimate? For more on this, KCBS Radio news anchors Doug Sovern and Margie Shafer spoke with Chris Thornberg, one of California's best-known economists, founder of Beacon Economics, formerly the senior economist for UCLA's Anderson Forecast, and now teaching at UC Riverside.

With Christopher Thornberg, Principal & Founder of Beacon Economics

Dr. Thornberg is an uncommon economist. Chris is as much at home with philosophy as the nuts-and-bolts of economics and forecasting. As the Founder of Beacon Economics, Chris is not only one of the few, like Hank Paulson, who called the collapse of the housing market, but also one of the few economists who can call it like it is, and share beliefs rooted in facts rather than opinion.

Dr. Thornberg is an uncommon economist. Chris is as much at home with philosophy as the nuts-and-bolts of economics and forecasting. As the Founder of Beacon Economics, Chris is not only one of the few, like Hank Paulson, who called the collapse of the housing market, but also one of the few economists who can call it like it is, and share beliefs rooted in facts rather than opinion.

With Christopher Thornberg, Principal & Founding Partner at Beacon Economics

With Dr. Christopher Thornberg, Principal & Founding Partner of Beacon Economics

With Dr. Christopher Thornberg, Principal & Founding Partner of Beacon Economics

New Podcast Episode Explores this ‘Time of Phenomenal Uncertainty' We sat down once again with Dr. Chris Thornberg, founder of Beacon Economics and Director of the UC Riverside Center for Economic Forecasting. Host Jon Switalski talks to Dr. Thornberg about the labor market, the supply chain crisis, and inflation. Please make sure to subscribe so you don't miss an episode! Also, send in any questions or inquiries to podcasts@rebuildsocal.org DamJ7G36ljX0jpTV4Exk

With Dr. Christopher Thornberg, Founding Partner at Beacon Economics

With Dr. Christopher Thornberg, Founding Partner at Beacon Economics

Originally from upstate New York, Dr. Thornberg holds a Ph.D in Business Economics from The Anderson School at UCLA, and a B.S. degree in Business Administration from the State University  of New York at Buffalo.Christopher Thornberg founded Beacon Economics LLC in 2006.  Dr. Thornberg also became  Director of the UC Riverside School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development and an Adjunct Professor at the School.Prior to launching Beacon Economics, Dr. Thornberg was a senior economist with UCLA's Anderson Forecast. He previously taught in the MBA program at UCLA's Anderson School, in the Rady School of Business at UC San Diego, and at Thammasat University in Bangkok, ThailandAn expert in economic and revenue forecasting, regional economics, economic policy, and labor and real estate markets, Dr. Thornberg has consulted for private industry, cities, counties, and public agencies in Los Angeles, San Francisco and the Bay Area, San Diego, the Inland Empire, Seattle, Orange County, Sacramento, Nevada, and other geographies across the nation. Dr. Thornberg became nationally known for forecasting the subprime mortgage market crash that began in 2007, and was one of the few economists on record to predict the global economic recession that followed. Well known for his ability to capture and hold audiences, Dr. Thornberg has presented to hundreds of leading business, government, and nonprofit organizations across the globe including Chevron, The New Yorker, Colliers International, the California Chamber of Commerce, City National Bank, the California State Association of Counties, State Farm Insurance, the City of Los Angeles, the California and Nevada Credit Union League, and the  National Steel and Shipbuilding Company, among many others.The Norris Group originates and services loans in California and Florida under California DRE License 01219911, Florida Mortgage Lender License 1577, and NMLS License 1623669.  For more information on hard money lending, go www.thenorrisgroup.com and click the Hard Money tab.Video LinkRadio Show

Originally from upstate New York, Dr. Thornberg holds a Ph.D in Business Economics from The Anderson School at UCLA, and a B.S. degree in Business Administration from the State University  of New York at Buffalo.Christopher Thornberg founded Beacon Economics LLC in 2006.  Dr. Thornberg also became  Director of the UC Riverside School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development and an Adjunct Professor at the School.Prior to launching Beacon Economics, Dr. Thornberg was a senior economist with UCLA's Anderson Forecast. He previously taught in the MBA program at UCLA's Anderson School, in the Rady School of Business at UC San Diego, and at Thammasat University in Bangkok, ThailandAn expert in economic and revenue forecasting, regional economics, economic policy, and labor and real estate markets, Dr. Thornberg has consulted for private industry, cities, counties, and public agencies in Los Angeles, San Francisco and the Bay Area, San Diego, the Inland Empire, Seattle, Orange County, Sacramento, Nevada, and other geographies across the nation. Dr. Thornberg became nationally known for forecasting the subprime mortgage market crash that began in 2007, and was one of the few economists on record to predict the global economic recession that followed. Well known for his ability to capture and hold audiences, Dr. Thornberg has presented to hundreds of leading business, government, and nonprofit organizations across the globe including Chevron, The New Yorker, Colliers International, the California Chamber of Commerce, City National Bank, the California State Association of Counties, State Farm Insurance, the City of Los Angeles, the California and Nevada Credit Union League, and the  National Steel and Shipbuilding Company, among many others. The Norris Group originates and services loans in California and Florida under California DRE License 01219911, Florida Mortgage Lender License 1577, and NMLS License 1623669.  For more information on hard money lending, go www.thenorrisgroup.com and click the Hard Money tab.Video LinkRadio Show

As we've been reporting on KCBS Radio, a number of California industries are experiencing growing pains emerging from the pandemic. Even sectors that flourished over the past year, such as construction, are running into challenges meeting employment demands. To discuss further, KCBS news anchors Patti Reising and Jeff Bell, along with KCBS Radio reporter Mike DeWald, spoke with Adam Fowler, Director of Research at Beacon Economics.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This special episode of the Capitol Weekly Podcast was recorded live on May 26 at a panel discussion hosted by Capitol Weekly as part of A Conference on Housing Policy. Even a worldwide pandemic couldn’t slow California’s climbing cost of housing. The Golden State boasts the most expensive real estate market in the country – the median home price in California is nearly double the average for a home in the rest of the US. And, rents are equally excessive. Even inland areas that were once relatively affordable have seen double-digit growth: rents in Fresno have risen nearly 40% since 2017. What – if anything – can be done to slow the runaway cost of California housing? Panelists: Asm. Buffy Wicks; Jason Elliot, Senior Counselor to Governor Newsom; Adam Fowler, Beacon Economics; Jennifer Svec, California Association of Realtors Moderated by Manuela Tobias, CalMatters

Is there anything more corrosive to an economy and economic well-being of people than inflation? Yet, after many years of tame inflationary pressure, there are numerous economists forecasting the return of inflation based on multiple factors, such as central banks quantitative easing campaign and the printing of money, as well as the inevitable financial rebound coming out of the economic repression of the coronavirus pandemic and partial economic lockdown. Joining the program to assess the situation is economist Christopher Thornberg, founding partner of Beacon Economics. (01/2021)

Is there anything more corrosive to an economy and economic well-being of people than inflation? Yet, after many years of tame inflationary pressure, there are numerous economists forecasting the return of inflation based on multiple factors, such as central banks quantitative easing campaign and the printing of money, as well as the inevitable financial rebound coming out of the economic repression of the coronavirus pandemic and partial economic lockdown. Joining the program to assess the situation is economist Christopher Thornberg, founding partner of Beacon Economics. (01/2021)

Is there anything more corrosive to an economy and economic well-being of people than inflation? Yet, after many years of tame inflationary pressure, there are numerous economists forecasting the return of inflation based on multiple factors, such as central banks quantitative easing campaign and the printing of money, as well as the inevitable financial rebound coming out of the economic repression of the coronavirus pandemic and partial economic lockdown. Joining the program to assess the situation is economist Christopher Thornberg, founding partner of Beacon Economics. (01/2021)

For the second year in a row, California has seen its population decline - After generations of growth, the state is losing more people than it gains every year. What does that mean for a state that has nearly 40 million people already? Can we afford to lose some people? And, who is leaving? For this episode of the Capitol Weekly Podcast we spoke with Adam Fowler, Director of Research for Beacon Economics, an independent research and consulting firm based in Los Angeles. While many are bearish on the Golden State's prospects, Fowler sees a net positive: “I’m still the California optimist.” Fowler notes that California led the country out of the Great Recession less than a decade ago, recovering more quickly than most states labeled 'business friendly.' Our default setting is "grow, grow, grow." he says. One reason for that is that the state has served as an incubator for new businesses. A massive investment into research and development has paid dividends in the form of high-end jobs. The problem, he says, is housing. "Jobs need to go home to a bed at night.” "Where we have been creating jobs... we have not been creating housing to go along with that job growth.” Fowler discusses the research into who is leaving the state, and what policy changes would help stem the tide.

This week we will be speaking with nationwide economist Dr. Chris Thornberg, founder of Beacon Economics. During this episode, we discuss economic recovery from COVID-19, what this means for the country and in particular Southern California, and what the future holds.

By Chris Nichols If Your Time Is Short Sen. Kamala Harris has repeatedly claimed she “took on the big banks” as California attorney general following the foreclosure crisis. We found she played a central role in reaching the $25 billion National Mortgage Settlement to provide relief to homeowners.  Harris also reached a separate $12 billion California agreement. Additionally, Harris pushed for the California Homeowner Bill of Rights in 2012, considered the nation’s strongest foreclosure protection law at the time. Critics, however, contend that Harris was not aggressive enough in prosecuting bank executives. Also, some critics say the amount of relief was inadequate and failed to keep many Californians in their homes. During her speech accepting the nomination to be Joe Biden’s running mate, Sen. Kamala Harris didn’t spend much time — at all — detailing her record as a California prosecutor.  Harris did, however, repeat a line during her Democratic National Convention address that’s become standard in her stump speeches both in the Golden State and now on the national stage: “I took on the biggest banks,” Harris said at the convention last week.  She was referring, in part, to the deal she struck with some of the nation’s largest financial institutions in 2012 as California attorney general to provide relief for homeowners facing foreclosure during the subprime mortgage crisis. Harris has repeated this claim at high-profile points throughout her career: While running for U.S. Senate in 2016, during her January 2019 speech kicking off her own presidential bid before a crowd of thousands in Oakland and then two months later on Jimmy Kimmel Live!: “I took on the five big banks of the United States when we were fighting for the homeowners of California, and by extension the nation, around the foreclosure crisis and when they were basically stealing from homeowners around these predatory mortgage practices.”  Given the significance of this turbulent period, we wanted to know more about Harris’ contention that she tackled these problems head on. What, exactly, was her role as attorney general “taking on the big banks,” how successful was she and did she go far enough?   Background On California’s Foreclosure Crisis In California and across the nation, the foreclosure crisis was devastating. Nearly 10 million homeowners lost their homes to foreclosure sales between 2006 and 2014, according to research by Marketplace.  As home values plummeted, mortgage payments ballooned, often due to predatory lending practices. Homeowners found themselves “under water,” owing hundreds of thousands of dollars more than the value of their homes.  Then, as the wider economy collapsed, many lost work and the ability to stay in their homes. Some took a loss through short sales, others simply abandoned their homes, creating ghost towns in new suburban tract neighborhoods. Foreclosure relief funds were still years away. The ripple effects of the mortgage crisis and ensuing Great Recession are still felt. Millions who lost their homes never returned to homeownership, denying families the chance to build wealth for future generations.  How Did Kamala Harris ‘Take On The Big Banks’? Through interviews with housing policy experts and consumer advocates, and reviewing news articles and documents over the past decade, we found Harris did play a central role in securing billions of dollars in relief funds and new protections for California homeowners facing foreclosure. She’s been widely praised for these achievements. We also found, however, that much of the mortgage relief money was spent on efforts that did not keep Californians in their homes. Additionally, consumer advocates told us not enough was done to ensure low-income households and communities of color received the help they needed.  Finally, critics say Harris should have done more to prosecute the financial industry executives many blame for starting the crisis. Harris’ campaign spokesperson did not respond to requests to discuss this story. Harris’ Role In The National Mortgage Settlement  In February 2012, Harris and 48 other state attorneys general reached the National Mortgage Settlement. The $25 billion deal required the nation’s five largest mortgage servicers — Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, Citi, Bank of America and Ally/GMAC — to provide mortgage assistance for homeowners facing foreclosure.  During negotiations, consumer advocates such as Kevin Stein worried Harris would take an initial and lower offer from the banks. Only California and New York had yet to sign on.  The groups saw the amount on the table, described later by Harris as between $2 billion and $4 billion for California, as inadequate.  Despite pressure from other states and the White House to settle, Harris famously walked away, a decision she speaks about frequently and writes about in her book The Truths We Hold.  When she returned to the table months later, Harris helped secure the $25 billion national settlement along with a separate $12 billion deal called the California Agreement.  Aid delivered under the California deal would eventually grow to $18 billion. Harris often describes the total as $20 billion in relief for California, which includes nearly $2 billion from the national deal. She described securing the assistance as “a tremendous victory for the people of California.”   SOURCE: California Attorney General’s Office, California Monitor report, By the Numbers: Mortgage Relief Across California, Sept. 24, 2013   The negotiations won Harris praise from the likes of Massachusetts. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who appeared in a campaign ad in 2016 in which she endorsed Harris for U.S. Senate and called her “fearless.”  “As the fraud was being uncovered, many of the AGs were yelling ‘Settle, settle, settle.’ They just wanted to get their hands on the money. … [Harris] was the one who said ‘No, we have to do better,’” Warren told the Los Angeles Times in 2016.  “She stood firm. She got more for the state,” added Stein, deputy director of the California Reinvestment Coalition, which works to ensure banks invest in communities of color and low-income communities in an equitable manner.  The California Agreement required the three largest mortgage companies — Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo — to provide mortgage relief for California homeowners under more stringent requirements than the national deal.  ‘The Banks Are Running The Government’ While the agreements Harris reached with the banks promised more help for California homeowners, some economists and advocates for borrowers said they fell far short of what was needed both in the state and nationally given the scale of the crisis.  They also said too much of the aid came in the form of short sales and forgiveness of second mortgages, instead first mortgage reductions, the kind most likely to keep a borrower in their home.  “It just shows you that the banks are running the government,” Bruce Marks, founder of Neighborhood Assistance Corp. of America, a major housing counseling group, told the Los Angeles Times in 2013. “There’s virtually no benefit to borrowers, and yet you give the banks credit for short sales and getting second liens wiped out — something they were going to have to do anyway.” Under the California Agreement, approximately 84,000 California families received more than $9.2 billion in first- and second-mortgage principal reduction, according to a September 2013 analysis conducted for the attorney general’s office on how the relief funds were spent. A slightly larger total, $9.24 billion, was spent on short sales, with the report noting: “The reality is that not every family can keep its home.” That’s because many had lost jobs and simply needed to move on from their massive debt, said Carolina Reid, a faculty research advisor at UC Berkeley’s Terner Center for Housing Innovation.  “They were not going to stay in that home. So, a short sale is better than an outright foreclosure,” added Reid, who was part of the team that helped review bank performance for the attorney general’s office following the California Agreement.  Others say the deals reached by Harris and other attorneys general were woefully insufficient. Christopher Thornberg, founding partner of Beacon Economics, a research and consulting firm in Los Angeles, told Stateline in 2013 that California's share of relief aid was “chump change” in a state that has a $1.5 trillion economy. The settlement, he added, simply allowed politicians “to thump their chest and rail against the big evil banks.” Relief Didn’t Reach Those Hardest Hit By The Foreclosure Crisis Housing and consumer experts say predatory lending practices and the resulting foreclosure crisis disproportionately hit communities of color and low-income households first and the hardest.  While they did not single-out Harris, who was elected attorney general in 2010 as the crisis was well underway, they said the assistance she helped secure came too late for many. “By the time policy makers were thinking about homeowner relief and talking about the settlement, a significant share of Black and Latinx households had already lost their homes to foreclosure. That’s because they were the first impacted,” Reid said. Stein, the consumer advocate, added there wasn’t much data to track efforts to help these communities. “The neighborhoods that needed it most, it wasn’t clear that they were getting relief,” he said.   Governments didn’t start paying attention to the crisis, Reid added, “until they saw the foreclosure crisis extend to white households.” “So, absolutely, we could have done so much more to ensure that communities of color, lower-income households wouldn’t have been so badly impacted by the foreclosure crisis,” she said.  Harris’ Role In Passing The California Homeowner Bill of Rights Along with helping secure the financial settlements, Harris is credited with helping push through the California Homeowner Bill of Rights in 2012.  Stein said the protections in the bill set a national model and, at the time, served as “the strongest foreclosure prevention law in the country.” It provided homeowners in distress with a single point of contact at a bank, reducing the stress and duplication of working with multiple representatives. The bill also required that homeowners receive fair consideration for a loan modification and allowed them to respond if denied.  Finally, and most importantly, Stein said the bill allowed homeowners to sue banks if their rights under the bill were violated.  “That was really one of the first, if not the first time, you had clear consequences for banks’ malfeasance and misconduct,” Stein added, noting some foreclosures were stopped as a result. “We think it served a really important deterrent value. Banks then kind of took notice and realized that they needed to comply with the Homeowner Bill of Rights or else they would get sued.”  Stein said Harris fully backed the bill after it had twice failed in the Legislature. It was signed into law by then-Gov. Jerry Brown in July 2012 and went into effect Jan. 1, 2013.  Harris “became the face of the Homeowner Bill of Rights and helped push it through,” he said. Why Didn’t Harris Go After Bank Executives?  Looking back at the mortgage crisis, some have raised questions about why Harris didn’t go after bank executives more aggressively. They point to a 2012 investigation by the attorney general’s office that found OneWest Bank took part in “widespread misconduct” when foreclosing homes, as reported by the Intercept. The bank was headed at the time by now Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who disputed the findings. Last year, Ian Sams, a campaign spokesman for Harris told CNBC the following:  “There was no question One West conducted predatory lending, and Senator Harris believes they should be punished. Unfortunately, the law was squarely on their side and they were shielded from state subpoenas because they’re a federal bank,” Sams wrote in an email. Despite that challenge, CNBC noted Harris’ office still could have filed a civil enforcement action against the bank, but chose not to.   Looking ahead, advocates such as Stein say they’re worried another housing crisis is coming given the huge loss of jobs during the COVID-19 pandemic.  Government leaders, from Harris to President Donald Trump, will again play pivotal roles in deciding what kind of relief to secure, and how that assistance reaches those most in need.  PolitiFact California is fact-checking the claims Harris makes about her record in the state while she campaigns as Biden’s VP pick. Suggest a fact check at politifactca@capradio.org, or contact us on Twitter or Facebook. Related What Kept Kamala Harris So ‘Cautious’ As California’s Attorney General? Kamala Harris: Criminal justice reformer, or defender of the status quo? The record is mixed Kamala Harris Is Biden's VP Pick. Here's A Closer Look At Her Record In California. Harris did not call Biden a racist during her busing attack Did Kamala Harris flip-flop on independent probes of police shootings? Source List Kamala Harris, Democratic National Convention speech, Aug. 19, 2020 Kamala Harris, appearance on Jimmy Kimmel Live!, March 20, 2019 Kamala Harris, presidential campaign kick-off speech, January 27, 2019 Kamala Harris for U.S. Senate, “Fearless” campaign ad, May 2016  Kevin Stein, deputy director of the California Reinvestment Coalition, video interview Aug. 20, 2020 Carolina Reid, faculty research advisor, UC Berkeley’s Terner Center for Housing Innovation, video interview Aug. 24, 2020 Maeve Elise Brown, executive director, Housing and Economic Rights Advocates, email interview, Aug. 22, 2020 California Attorney General’s Office, California Monitor report, By the Numbers: Mortgage Relief Across California, Sept. 24, 2013 California  Attorney General’s Office, California Homeowner Bill of Rights Signed into Law, July 11, 2012 National Mortgage Servicing Settlements, website, accessed August 2020 Marketplace, Divided Decade: How the financial crisis changed housing, Dec. 17, 2018 Los Angeles Times, Mortgage relief didn’t help many keep their homes, critics say, Sept. 25, 2013 CNBC, Kamala Harris’ complicated history with Wall Street will come under scrutiny in the 2020 race, Jan. 26, 2019 The Intercept_, Treasury Nominee Steve Mnuchin’s Bank Accused of “Widespread Misconduct” In Leaked Memo, Jan. 3, 2017 Stateline, States Used Mortgage Settlement Money to Balance Budgets, Oct. 8, 2013 Los Angeles Times, $25-billion foreclosure settlement was a victory for Kamala Harris in California, but it wasn’t perfect, Oct. 16, 2016

Mottek On Money Special Edition -Wall Street and Main Street: Stocks start the week with a rally sending the Nasdaq to a record closing high on growing optimism that the worst of the coronavirus induced recession might have already passed. It was the Nasdaq's first record high close since February 19th and marks an impressive rebound since the fastest ever bear market sell off. The broader S&P 500 turns positive for 2020. The Dow posts at gain of 461 points putting it about 2000 points below its all time high.  All this on the same day the National Bureau of Economic Research officially declared a recession started in February. Travel related stocks including airlines, cruiselines, car rental companies shot higher. Auto stocks moved up including Tesla which hit a record high above $900. The markets and the economy discussed with Bryan Perry, Editor of www.BryanPerryInvesting.com and Economist Christopher Thornberg, Founder, Beacon Economics.   Support the show.

Chris Thornberg: Why The Economic Forecasters Are Dead WrongPost Pandemic Economics: Dr Chris Thornberg........Dr Christopher Thornberg is a founding partner at Beacon Economics'. He’s also the Director/Adjunct Professor of the UC Riverside School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development. Back before it happened, he also famously predicted the 2008 global recession. Chris is a man who in today's news cycle and may be seen as rather a radicle. One this episode we go FullMonty on:What we need to be most afraid of right now (It's NOT what you think)! Why many of the forecasters we look to (Like Ray Dalio) are dead wrongWhy the massive unemployment numbers are not the real indicators of what's going on in the economy The 5 key questions Real Economists use to forecast (Mind Blowing!)What happens if we hit a second wave of the pandemic Why the sacred stock market's rise and fall is a con. What we actually expect in the third quarter of 2020 ...........Today more than ever it is time to upgrade your leadership! Find out how you can hire Dov Baron "The Dragonist" as a speaker or strategist for yourself or your organization: DovBaron.com Because Unified meaning is the one single monolithic difference between mediocrity and greatness for all individuals and companies! See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Coronavirus continues to dominate the news, raising concerns among individuals and for our economy. In this episode of The Workplace podcast, CalChamber Executive Vice President and General Counsel Erika Frank is joined by economist Christopher Thornberg, Ph.D, founding partner of Beacon Economics, to discuss the COVID-19 coronavirus and its possible impact on the economy and businesses.

Dr Chris Thornberg: PART 2 Economic Truths and LiesHow to Ask The Right Economic Questions. Dr Chris ThornbergLet’s continue our conversation with Dr Christopher Thornberg is a founding partner at Beacon Economics'. He’s also Director/Adjunct Professor of the UC Riverside School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development.More about Dr Christopher Thornberg https://beaconecon.comTo find out more about hiring Dov Baron as a speaker or strategist for your organization: http://fullmontyleadership.com/consulting or http://fullmontyleadership.com/speaking.Find us on iTunes, Spotify, iHeart Radio, or wherever you tune into podcasts and on traditional radio stations across the US every Monday and Thursday. Look for us on on ROKU TV too. Thank-you to you for making us the #1 podcast globally for Fortune 500 listeners! And with a potential reach of 2.5 to 4 million listeners for every show, we’re honored and grateful to be cited in INC.com as The #1 Podcast To Make You a Better Leader. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

THE TRUTH ECONOMIC LIES FROM BOTH SIDES: DR CHRIS THORNBERGAre you prepared for economic change before it happens, or, will you, like most people, just try to surf the wave, hoping it's not a tsunami that will drown you and your business? Well let’s find out together… our guest on this episode is Dr Christopher Thornberg is a founding partner at Beacon Economics' he’s also Director/Adjunct Professor of the UC Riverside School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development.More about Dr Christopher Thornberg https://beaconecon.comTo find out more about hiring Dov Baron as a speaker or strategist for your organization: http://fullmontyleadership.com/consulting or http://fullmontyleadership.com/speaking.Find us on iTunes, Spotify, iHeart Radio, or wherever you tune into podcasts and on traditional radio stations across the US every Monday and Thursday. Look for us on on ROKU TV too. Thank-you to you for making us the #1 podcast globally for Fortune 500 listeners! And with a potential reach of 2.5 to 4 million listeners for every show, we’re honored and grateful to be cited in INC.com as The #1 Podcast To Make You a Better Leader. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

According to Dr. Chris Thornberg of Beacon Economics, the US economy and real estate market are currently extremely healthy, so we should appreciate it and focus now on fixing the retirement crisis we’re facing in 10-15 years. Plus, Joe and Big Al answer your money questions: Why is owning a home considered "profitable"? Is it a good idea to own real estate in a self-directed IRA? And should you buy a fixed index annuity? Transcript & show notes: http://bit.ly/YMYW-231

For most states, the fiscal year ended on June 30, 2018. We decided this would be a good time to get an overview of the national economy from an expert familiar to many state legislators and state legislative staff. Christopher Thornberg, the founding partner of the research firm Beacon Economics, is our guest on this episode. He says a pressing concern for states is higher interest rates over the next 24 months and a lack of workers. He believes the economy will continue to grow over the next two years, but he sees stressors that make him worry how much longer the expansion can last. A “dangerously” low level of consumer savings is one of his concerns. We get reaction to how the federal tax bill is affecting the economy and how tariff policies could affect states. He also explains why he believes Congress and the administration need to pay more attention to policies that have an impact on our economy. It’s part of his discussion he wants to share in his talk, “The Great Disconnect,” when he speaks at the NCSL Legislative Summit in Los Angeles on Aug. 1. Transcription of Episode 38  

Many are concerned that we’re about to see another housing bubble, but is this really the case?Buying a home? Click here to perform a full home searchSelling a home? Click here for a FREE Home Price EvaluationSince 2012, home prices have significantly increased. As this trend continues, many are wondering when it will stop. Is a housing bubble on the horizon?According to economists, the next housing bubble isn’t expected to hit until 2024. This means there are six years to prepare. Freddie Mac’s chief economist Sean Becketti has said, “The evidence indicates there currently is no house price bubble in the U.S., despite the rapid increase of house prices over the last five years.” Other economists have shared similar opinions. Christopher Thornberg, a partner at Beacon Economics, says “There is no direct or indirect sign of any kind of bubble.” “The rise in prices is something buyers are certainly paying attention to. ”While we may not be headed for a bubble in the near future, the rise in prices is something buyers are certainly paying attention to. Of course, there’s no way to accurately predict what will happen to our market or our economy. Also, interest rates are going up for the first time in years. You can find more information about today’s interest rates here. The rise in interest rates is yet another factor that could impact purchasing power, which could cause further pressure on housing prices. If you have any other questions or would like more information, feel free to give me a call or send me an email. I look forward to hearing from you soon.

Think you know where the real estate market is heading? Cris Thornberg, Founding Partner of Beacon Economics does...and he's sharing it in this FlipNerd.com VIP Expert Interview! He's a sought after commentator in the Wall Street Journal, CNN, NPR, The New York Times and more...but today he's with us at FlipNerd.com. Don't miss it! For a limited time, access a FREE Master Class called the "Real Estate Millionaire Blueprint" HERE!

Held on Tuesday, April 6  on the Loyola Marymount University campus, this episode of the Forecast LA Lecture Series is titled “Forecast LA for the LMU Community”. It features Robert Kleinhenz, Ph.D., Economist and Executive Director of Research for Beacon Economics; and Dr. Fernando Guerra. Organized by the Center for the Study of Los Angeles and co-sponsored […]

Manufacturing Talk Radio co-hosts Lew Weiss and Tim Grady will be discussing the latest ISM Report on Business(R) with Brad Holcomb, Committee Chair at ISM that generates this information, as well as the Non-Manufacturing Report on Business(R) that was released by Tony Nieves, Committee Chair for that report. Jock O’Connell, International Trade Adviser with Beacon Economics will also be joining the show to discuss the West coast port situation. The main stream media is just now recognizing how this issue could impact the U.S. economy, and several respondents in the Report on Business(R) have commented that the West coast port calamity is hurting their production lines, holding up raw material and sub-assembly part arrivals from Asia. The port situation has also hit retail hard and may even begin to cause layoffs on assembly lines. Learn how your business could be impacted at 1:00 p.m. EST today LIVE right here at Manufacturing Talk Radio.

- Moe discusses the economy with guest Dr. Christopher Thornberg, Founding Principle of Beacon Economics. - Please call 1-800-388-9700 for a free copy of 2011 Los Angeles Economic Forecast Book.