Podcasts about economic forecasting

The specter of stagflation is on the rise.  While the higher tariffs have yet to translate into higher prices, the Inside Economics team and their colleague, inflation-maven Matt Colyar, argue they soon will. And weaker growth isn't too far behind – the team's recession probabilities are increasing again. Mass immigrant deportations, and Israel's bombing of Iran and the resulting spike in oil prices, also point to higher inflation and weaker growth. Just how serious a threat stagflation poses depends on many factors, the least of which is whether the Fed is willing and able to stick to its inflation mandate.Guest: Matt Colyar – Assistant Director, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Economist and polymath Tyler Cowen challenges Silicon Valley's optimistic projections about AI-driven economic growth. We explore what could slow AI's economic impact, despite its remarkable capabilities – and where humans find the new normal amidst major shifts.Timestamps: (00:00) Episode trailer (01:47)  The problem with Silicon Valley's AI-driven growth projections (06:02) The institutional bottleneck to AI progress (10:49) Markets aren't pricing in a radical AI future (12:53) Are we heading for a great job displacement? (17:02) Is GDP still worth talking about? (19:11) Who does AI benefit most? (21:11) Will AI cause a human identity crisis? (27:11) The education system's failure to adapt (35:34) How the Gulf could become a geopolitical powerhouse (39:10)  Could AI change religion? (46:46)  Closing thoughts Tyler's links: Marginal Revolution Blog: https://marginalrevolution.com/ Twitter/X: https://x.com/tylercowen Azeem's links: Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/ Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeemOur new showThis was originally recorded for "Friday with Azeem Azhar", a new show that takes place every Friday at 9am PT and 12pm ET. You can tune in through Exponential View on Substack.Produced by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 LTD

The Inside Economics crew talks about the latest tariff news, as well as the reconciliation bill making its way through Congress and the long-term macroeconomic consequences of the bill. Mark gives some rules of thumb about the tariff impact on inflation, as well as the debt-to-GDP ratio and long-term bond yields. Finally, the team answers several listener questions and plays the stats game.Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

The Inside Economics team welcomes back Aaron Klein, senior fellow in Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution, for his fourth appearance. The episode begins with an analysis of the latest economic indicators, unpacking fresh CPI, PPI, and retail sales data. Mark then asks the team to weigh in on how recent tariff announcements have altered their economic forecasts and recession probabilities. Moody's Analytics economist Justin Begley provides a breakdown of the budget reconciliation package moving through Congress. The episode concludes with Aaron's assessment of emerging vulnerabilities and potential flashpoints in the financial system.Guest: Aaron Klein, Senior Fellow at the Brookings InstitutionHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

The Build Podcast tackles a very timely and top-of-mind topic: tariffs. This episode dives deep into the current (as of April 28, 2025) and forecasted state of the U.S. housing and remodeling industry, with a spotlight on tariffs, economic uncertainty, and demographic trends. Matt is joined by two experts from Zonda (a leading housing data and insights company), Matt & Todd, to discuss how global tariffs are expected to raise material costs by up to 9%, even for companies that don't directly import goods. The conversation covers how these pressures are reshuffling market share among building product brands, highlighting the rise of private labels and the shifting loyalty to names like Kohler and Moen.They explore how an aging, wealthier homeowner demographic is driving demand for higher-quality, longer-lasting products—especially in remodeling. They also emphasize a growing labor shortage, suggesting that skilled contractors will become more valuable, with fewer available by 2030.Zonda's Matt & Todd unpack the revolution in supply chains: contractors are increasingly purchasing materials via e-commerce and direct-from-manufacturer channels. Digital fluency has become an essential in building materials sourcing and distribution.Thank you to episode sponsors Huber & Midea. Learn more at huberwood.com & midea.com.Resources:ZondaHome.com Save the Date for Build Show LIVE 2025 in Dallas, TX: October 16-18, 2025!Don't miss a single episode of Build Show content. Sign up for our newsletter.

Economic forecasting is particularly challenging during global crises, with predictions often hampered by uncertainty and external factors.Hwee Kwan Chow and Keen Meng Choy from Singapore Management University examine Singapore's GDP and inflation forecasts during the Global Financial Crisis and COVID-19 pandemic, uncovering the influence of government projections and herding behaviour that affect prediction accuracy.Read the original research: doi.org/10.1007/s00181-022-02311-8

Richard Barkham, Senior Economic Advisor at CBRE, joins the podcast to discuss the outlook for commercial real estate and the economy. Richard is decidedly more sanguine than the podcast hosts. Mark, Cris and Marisa also discuss the economic team's recent win for Most Accurate U.S. Forecast for 2023-2024 by Consensus Economics. They debate how much of the win can be chalked up to skill, luck, or the Chief Economist.Guest: Richard Barkham – Senior Economic Advisor, CBREHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

This episode marks our four-year anniversary doing the Inside Economic podcast, and we devote the conversation to responding to listener questions.  We've been getting lots of great Qs, ranging from the global trade war and DOGE cuts to immigration and productivity growth.  Keep the questions coming. Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Politics is often blamed for economic shifts, but there are usually more factors at play. Today's guest is an economic expert who explains how it can impact investors and buyers alike. On this episode of Zen and the Art of Real Estate Investing, Jonathan interviews Lauren Saidel-Baker, an economist with ITR Economics, the oldest privately-held, continuously operating economic research and consulting firm in the U.S. ITR Economics was founded in 1948. Jonathan and Lauren start the discussion by explaining how ITR Economics predicts economic shifts and how Lauren became an economist with ITR after a stint in asset management. She shares how politics and election cycles can affect economics, her predictions for 2025, and what real estate investors should look for. You'll hear the disruptions that natural disasters, population shifts, and weather can have on the economy, what regular homebuyers and investors should be looking for with purchases, and the trajectory of the real estate market in the next five years. Lauren outlines the potential opportunities real estate may offer with an economic downturn, her advice for remaining in real estate during economic disruption, and what she's doing to prepare for a potential economic depression. The economy is frequently in the news, but we don't often hear about the impact it can have on specific industries. Lauren Saidel-Baker makes the case for real estate even during economic turmoil. In this episode, you will hear: Lauren Saidel-Baker's explanation of how ITR Economics predicts economic shifts Her introduction to economics through a job after college in asset management, and what she loves about working at ITR Economics How election cycles impact economics Lauren's predictions for 2025 in comparison to 2024 and what real estate investors should look out for Disruptions that natural disasters can create, and the impact of population shifts and weather What regular homebuyers and investors should look for when they make a purchase The trajectory of real estate for the next five years based on current data Real estate opportunities that are likely with an economic downturn Population shifts around the country based on affordability What Lauren suggests for buyers in 2025 and the continued demand for multifamily assets Her advice for those who want to remain in real estate but are concerned about economic disruption, and how consumers can remain apprised of economic shifts What Lauren is doing to prepare for the coming economic depression Follow and Review: We'd love for you to follow us if you haven't yet. Click that purple '+' in the top right corner of your Apple Podcasts app. We'd love it even more if you could drop a review or 5-star rating over on Apple Podcasts. Simply select “Ratings and Reviews” and “Write a Review” then a quick line with your favorite part of the episode. It only takes a second and it helps spread the word about the podcast. If you enjoyed this episode, we've created a PDF that has all of the key information for you from the episode. Just go to the episode page at https://zenandtheartofrealestateinvesting.com/podcast/234/ to download it. Supporting Resources: ITR Economics - itreconomics.com ITR Economics on YouTube - www.youtube.com/channel/UCJx7dfActtS_noNjNq6sumA ITR Economics on Facebook - www.facebook.com/ITREconomics77 ITR Economics's Instagram - www.instagram.com/itreconomics Follow ITR Economics on LinkedIn - www.linkedin.com/company/itr-economics Website - www.streamlined.properties YouTube - www.youtube.com/c/JonathanGreeneRE/videos Instagram - www.instagram.com/trustgreene Instagram - www.instagram.com/streamlinedproperties TikTok - www.tiktok.com/@trustgreene Zillow - www.zillow.com/profile/StreamlinedReal Bigger Pockets - www.biggerpockets.com/users/TrustGreene Facebook - www.facebook.com/streamlinedproperties Email - info@streamlined.properties Episode Credits If you like this podcast and are thinking of creating your own, consider talking to my producer, Emerald City Productions. They helped me grow and produce the podcast you are listening to right now. Find out more at https://emeraldcitypro.com Let them know we sent you.

The Inside Economics team is joined by the former chair of the White House's Council of Economic Advisors, Jared Bernstein. Jared shares his evaluation of what has been a whirlwind few weeks for the global economy. With a healthy dose of humility, the group then debates where things might be headed in the U.S.-China trade war as well as which country they see as possessing more leverage. The group is also joined by Martin Wurm and Matt Colyar to discuss recent financial market volatility and the latest inflation data.Guest: Jared Bernstein, Former Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors under Joe BidenFor more from Jared Bernstein, check out his Substack: https://econjared.substack.com/Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Investing in these especially turbulent times is intrepid. No better person to navigate the ups and downs in global stock, bond, crypto and other asset markets than UBS's CIO, Mark Haefele. Mark discusses his new book, in which he considers the broad global trends – the 5 Ds – investors should embrace. And he offers a few investment nuggets along the way.For Mark Haefele's book, The New Rules of Investing, click hereGuest: Mark Haefele – Chief Investment Officer, UBS Global Wealth ManagementHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Firas Saleh, director of product management at Moody's, joins the Inside Economics team to discuss the increasing risk of wildfires and floods. He highlights the growing frequency and intensity of natural disasters and the significant economic losses they cause. The conversation then shifts to the insurance industry, focusing on how rising insurance premiums affect individual property owners and real estate markets. Although markets will adapt to these evolving risks, the transition may be challenging.Guest: Firas Saleh – Director of Product Management, Moody'sHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

The Inside Economics crew is joined by Matt Colyar to discuss February's CPI report and a rapidly changing U.S. economic environment. Primarily, the conversation focuses on tariffs and the on-again, off-again chaos coming out of D.C. The group also discusses investors and U.S. trade partners' increasingly evident fatigue and whether orthodox macroeconomic principals will eventually re-emerge as a guidepost for policymaking. Guest: Matt Colyar – Assistant Director, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Adam Ozimek, Chief Economist at the Economic Innovation Group, joins the podcast to discuss his latest proposal to reform and replace the high-skilled immigration program in the U.S. (better known as H-1B). In addition to immigration policy, the group discusses remote work, the softening of recent economic data, and the prospects for the year ahead. Finally, the group goes around the horn with its recession probability for the next 12 months.Guest: Adam Ozimek – Chief Economist of the Economic Innovation GroupAdam Ozimek's research on high skilled immigration: https://eig.org/exceptional-by-design%20/Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn 

Robert Reich, UC Berkley professor and former Labor Secretary under President Clinton, joins the Inside Economics podcast to take a retrospective look at economic policies extending back to Clinton that ultimately contributed to President Trump's election, and a prospective look at where the president is taking policy and what it means for democracy and the economy. His advice: batten down the hatches and buckle upGuest: Robert Reich, Professor at UC Berkley and former U.S. Secretary of LaborTo keep up to date with Robert Reich: https://robertreich.substack.com/To learn more about Robert Reich's nonprofit: https://www.inequalitymedia.org/ and https://www.imcivicaction.org/Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

In this episode of Crossing Channels, Richard Westcott is joined by Dimitri Zenghelis, Ulrich Hege, and Mathias Reynaert to explore how green finance can support the clean transition. They discuss the shifting role of financial markets, the balance between public and private investment, and the policies needed to drive long-term change.Their lively discussion breaks down the economic opportunities of the transition, the impact of regulation on industries like automotive and energy, and the financial and political challenges that come with moving to a low-carbon economy. They also explore why policy credibility and stability are key to unlocking investment and ensuring a fair and effective transition.This episode is hosted by Richard Westcott (Cambridge University Health Partners and the Cambridge Biomedical Campus), and features experts Ulrich Hege (IAST), Mathias Reynaert (IAST) and Dimitri Zenghelis (Bennett Institute for Public Policy). Listen to this episode on your preferred podcast platformSeason 4 Episode 5 transcriptFor more information about the Crossing Channels podcast series and the work of the Bennett Institute and IAST visit our websites at https://www.bennettinstitute.cam.ac.uk/ and https://www.iast.fr/.Follow us on Linkedin, Bluesky and X. With thanks to:Audio production by Steve HankeyAssociate production by Burcu Sevde SelviVisuals by Tiffany Naylor and Aurore CarbonnelMore information about our host and guests:Richard Westcott is an award-winning journalist who spent 27 years at the BBC as a correspondent/producer/presenter covering global stories for the flagship Six and Ten o'clock TV news as well as the Today programme. Last year, Richard left the corporation and he is now the communications director for Cambridge University Health Partners and the Cambridge Biomedical Campus, both organisations that are working to support life sciences and healthcare across the city. @BBCwestcottUlrich Hege is Professor of Toulouse School of Economics since 2016. He was Director of TSE until 2017 and Vice-President until 2020. His main research area is in Financial Economics, but he also worked on questions in contract theory, entrepreneurship, regulation, law and economics, and digital economics. Prior to joining TSE, he was Professor and Associate Dean at HEC Paris, and held faculty positions at Tilburg University (Netherlands) and ESSEC (Paris). He has also been a Visiting Associate Professor at London Business School and at New York University Stern School of Business. Mathias Reynaert is a Professor of Economics at the Toulouse School of Economics. His fields of interest are empirical industrial organization and environmental economics. His research received recognitions such as the 2015 Paul Geroski and YEEA Prize, the 2022 Edmond Malinvaud Prize, an ERC starting grant (2023-2028), and a 2023 nomination for best young economist in France.  He is a research affiliate at the CEPR and an editorial board member at the Review of Economic Studies.Dimitri Zenghelis is Special Advisor to the Bennett Institute, University of Cambridge and a Senior Visiting Fellow at the Grantham Research Institute, London School of Economics. He is also a Partner at Independent Economics. He headed the Stern Review Team at the Office of Climate Change and was a lead author on the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change. Previously he was Head of Economic Forecasting at HM Treasury. @DimitriZ

After a brief rundown of the week's solid economic data, the Inside Economics team is joined by Moody's Analytics colleague Martin Wurm to discuss the Fed's recent pause and the path of monetary policy for the rest of the year. Martin breaks down how we should think about the equilibrium long-term interest rate and, in turn, the fed funds rate. The team also discusses the possible scenarios for the Fed this year, given the uncertainty around tariff and immigration policy. Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Inside Economics welcomes Wayne Best, Chief Economist at Visa, back on the podcast to celebrate the 200th episode and talk about the state of the American consumer. Wayne discusses Visa's Spending Momentum Index for the U.S. and other parts of the globe and what it means for low, high, and middle-income households. The conversation ends with a discussion of the Trump administration's policy proposals and the implications for inflation and growth.Guest: Wayne Best, Chief Economist at VisaHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Art Bell - Gerald Celente - Economic Forecasting

On the first podcast of 2025, the Inside Economics crew discusses the outlook for the year ahead and delves into the Risk Matrix, a visual depiction of the major risks facing the global economy.  Mark, Cris and Marisa each pick a risk to highlight and then give their wildest predictions for 2025, some of which are not very serious. To view the Risk Matrix, click hereHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

With Marisa out on assignment, Dante joins Mark and Cris to discuss the latest U.S. employment report. After several volatile months due to hurricanes and labor strikes, the job market found its footing in November, with payroll growth reported across most industries. The team considers the report's implications for monetary policy and the long-run interest rate outlook. With all of the policy unknowns, they conclude that the only certainty is uncertainty.Guest: Dante DeAntonio, Senior Director of Economic Research, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Vassy Kapelos speaks with Transportation Minister Anita Anand and then you have your say on both the airline's decision and government response. On today's show: Ted Mallett, Director of Economic Forecasting, Conference Board of Canada, on the incoming interest rate decision and fall economic statement The Daily Debrief Panel with Robert Benzie, Queen's Park Bureau Chief for the Toronto Star; Marieke Walsh, senior political reporter with The Globe and Mail; Mike Le Couteur, Senior Political Correspondent, CTV National News Dr. John Moores, a planetary scientist, author of Day Dreaming in the Solar System, on NASA's updated plans and timeline for Artemis missions to the moon CTV's Washington bureau chief Joy Malbon on the latest details following the murder of UnitedHeathcare's CEO in New York City

"The cost of inaction will be substantially larger than the cost of action"The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review has become one of the most influential reports on climate change ever produced since its release by Her Majesty's Treasury of the UK Government in October 2006. Dimitri Zenghelis, senior economist for the review, worked under Gordon Brown as Head of Economic Forecasting in HM Treasury and has since held multiple roles, fellowships and academic posts including Senior Visiting Fellow at the LSE's The Grantham Institute and Senior Advisor to the Bennett Institute (University of Cambridge). He advises governments, banks, financial institutions, NGOs, and other international organisations on sustainability, climate change, innovation, economic modelling and clean urbanisation. Get comfortable for a macro-economic and financial markets double espresso covering topics including:- Shenanigans that went on at the heart of government between Tony Blair and Gordon Brown- The impact of the Stern Review's focus on an economic case for climate action on the acceleration of the transition- Optimising your investment strategy across the transition - Who is Wan Gang? And why did he have a greater influence on the development of electric vehicles than Elon Musk.- The reinforcing feedback between reduction in cost of technologies and favourable politics- The difference between conditional and complacent optimism, the future of aviation, the joy of reading children's books - and a great deal more!#cleantech #sustainabletransition #macroeconomics #innovation #cleanurbanisation"It's about forward looking strategy, not backwards looking disclosures"Links The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern ReviewThe Bennett Institute for Public Policy at the University of CambridgeGrantham Research Institute for Climate Change and the EnvironmentIndependent EconomicsInvesting for PurposeSocial Value InternationalImpact FrontiersGlobal Impact Investing NetworkSDG Goals Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Central Florida's top economist, Sean Snaith, Ph.D., the director of the University of Central Florida's Institute for Economic Forecasting, provides his economic outlook for 2025. Sponsored by: J. Wayne Miller Company Waste Pro The Orlando Law Group Addition Financial Alan Byrd & Associates Genske & Co. Accounting JPMorganChase

Welcome to another exciting episode of the Meat and Potatoes podcast! In this episode, we sit down with John Cordier, co-founder and CEO of Epistemix, a groundbreaking company that spun out of the University of Pittsburgh and Carnegie Mellon. Epistemix is revolutionizing the way we forecast the spread of diseases, human behavior, and even economic trends using agent-based simulation models.   00:03 - Introduction and Guest Welcome 00:40 - Founding Story of Epistemix 02:04 - Early Applications and Public Health Goals 02:50 - Emergent Infectious Diseases and Biodefense 04:49 - Epidemic X and Human Behavior 06:05 - Behavioral Differences and Forecasting 08:08 - Economic Forecasting and Agent-Based Simulation 10:03 - Inspiring Curiosity and Policy Decision Making 11:27 - Empathy in Leadership and Decision Making 12:46 - Community Engagement and Policy Impact 15:30 - Broader Applications and Historical Context 17:07 - Consulting and Economic Policy 22:23 - Product Adoption Models and Clubhouse Example 24:02 - COVID-19 and Behavioral Impacts 24:38 - Silicon Valley Bank and Behavioral Economics 25:29 - Personal Story and Relocation to Salt Lake City 27:00 - Personal Background and Curiosity 27:48 - Conclusion and Future Outlook   If you enjoyed this video and want to support us please leave a LIKE, write a comment on this video and Share it with your friends. Subscribe to our channel on YouTube and click the icon for notifications when we add a new video. Let us know in the comments if you have any questions.  Our website: https://www.siliconslopes.com Show Links: https://www.originbrandmerch.com/   Apple Podcasts:  https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/meat-potatoes-podcast/id1262148655   Spotify Podcasts: https://open.spotify.com/show/4T9PSMVqgQNf7lCF3NdDgS?si=0e0945e56d5a4306   Social: Twitter - https://twitter.com/siliconslopes Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/siliconslopes/ LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/silicon-slopes/ YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC8aEtQ1KJrWhJ3C2JnzXysw

Welcome to another exciting episode of the Meat and Potatoes podcast! In this episode, we sit down with John Cordier, co-founder and CEO of Epistemix, a groundbreaking company that spun out of the University of Pittsburgh and Carnegie Mellon. Epistemix is revolutionizing the way we forecast the spread of diseases, human behavior, and even economic trends using agent-based simulation models.   00:03 - Introduction and Guest Welcome 00:40 - Founding Story of Epistemix 02:04 - Early Applications and Public Health Goals 02:50 - Emergent Infectious Diseases and Biodefense 04:49 - Epidemic X and Human Behavior 06:05 - Behavioral Differences and Forecasting 08:08 - Economic Forecasting and Agent-Based Simulation 10:03 - Inspiring Curiosity and Policy Decision Making 11:27 - Empathy in Leadership and Decision Making 12:46 - Community Engagement and Policy Impact 15:30 - Broader Applications and Historical Context 17:07 - Consulting and Economic Policy 22:23 - Product Adoption Models and Clubhouse Example 24:02 - COVID-19 and Behavioral Impacts 24:38 - Silicon Valley Bank and Behavioral Economics 25:29 - Personal Story and Relocation to Salt Lake City 27:00 - Personal Background and Curiosity 27:48 - Conclusion and Future Outlook   If you enjoyed this video and want to support us please leave a LIKE, write a comment on this video and Share it with your friends. Subscribe to our channel on YouTube and click the icon for notifications when we add a new video. Let us know in the comments if you have any questions.  Our website: https://www.siliconslopes.com Show Links: https://www.originbrandmerch.com/   Apple Podcasts:  https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/meat-potatoes-podcast/id1262148655   Spotify Podcasts: https://open.spotify.com/show/4T9PSMVqgQNf7lCF3NdDgS?si=0e0945e56d5a4306   Social: Twitter - https://twitter.com/siliconslopes Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/siliconslopes/ LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/silicon-slopes/ YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC8aEtQ1KJrWhJ3C2JnzXysw

Welcome to "The Full Desk Experience" podcast! In this episode, host Kortney Harmon engages with special guest Alex Chausovsky, an esteemed economist and market researcher, delving into the intricacies of sales and marketing strategies crucial for business growth. The discussion navigates through a landscape of economic trends, workforce dynamics, and the looming influence of emerging technologies like AI and robotics. With actionable insights and practical advice tailored for the staffing and recruiting industry in 2024 and 2025, this episode offers a deep dive into talent retention strategies, industry disruptions, and the evolving power dynamic between organizations and employees. Join us as we unravel real-world wisdom to equip you with the tools needed to scale thriving teams and tackle the challenges of tomorrow.More about Alex:Alex Chausovsky is the Director of Analytics and Consulting for the Bundy Group. He is a highly experienced market researcher and analyst with more than two decades of expertise across subjects including economics, manufacturing, automation, advanced technology trends, and business cycle analysis. He has consulted and advised companies throughout the US and Canada, Europe, South America, and Asia. In his investment banking advisory role, Alex is a trusted source of information for owners and executives of privately held firms who are seeking a business sale, acquisition, or financing.Alex has delivered over a thousand presentations, webinars, and workshops to small businesses, trade associations, and Fortune 500 companies across a spectrum of industries, and is the go-to source of industry data and insights for business owners and leaders. Alex's analysis has been featured in the Wall Street Journal, on the BBC, and on NPR, and he is a Top Voice on LinkedIn._______________________Follow Alex Chausovsky on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/alexchausovsky/Follow Crelate on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/crelate/ Subscribe to our newsletter:  https://www.crelate.com/blog/full-desk-experience

In his Q&A session at BNC#6 in Hermanus, renowned investor Piet Viljoen shared insights on his nuanced approach to property investment during an engaging discussion with Bronwyn Nielsen. Viljoen emphasised the importance of strategic capital allocation, patience, and emotional control in navigating market cycles. Touching on various topics including ESG investments and activism, Viljoen's pragmatic perspective offered valuable guidance for investors amidst evolving economic landscapes.

In today's episode hosts Tate Duryea and Ryan Gibson navigate through the vast skies of real estate investing with the guidance of real estate titan, Kathy Fettke. As a renowned expert and a beacon of knowledge in real estate and economics, Kathy brings invaluable insights into the current real estate market, investment strategies, and the future of property investment. Whether you're at the helm of your real estate journey or just preparing for takeoff, this episode promises to elevate your understanding of real estate investments and economic trends. Fasten your seatbelts as we explore actionable insights and timeless wisdom from Kathy Fettke, ensuring your real estate ventures soar to new heights.Timestamped Show Notes:(00:00:00) Introduction to Passive Income Pilots and Today's Guest, Kathy Fettke.(00:01:00) Kathy Fettke's Background: From Broadcast Journalism to Real Estate Mogul.(00:03:00) Empowering Women in Finance and Investing.(00:06:00) The Catalysts for Kathy's Real Estate Journey: Personal Challenges and Insights.(00:08:00) Analyzing the Economic Impacts of the Pandemic on Real Estate.(00:10:00) The Inflation Effect: Money Supply and Real Estate Dynamics.(00:12:00) Navigating Interest Rates and the Surprising Resilience of the Economy.(00:14:00) The Resilient U.S. Economy: A Deep Dive into the Money Supply and Investment Strategies.(00:17:00) 2008 vs. Now: How Today's Real Estate Market Differs from the Past.(00:22:00) The Future of Real Estate: Understanding Current Trends and Preparing for What's Next.(00:24:00) The Role of Office and Commercial Real Estate in Today's Market.(00:27:00) Kathy's Advice for New Investors: Simplifying the Path to Real Estate Investment.(00:30:00) The Pitfalls to Avoid in Real Estate Investing.(00:33:00) The Allure and Risks of "Exciting" Real Estate Projects.(00:36:00) The Benefits of Investing in Real Estate: Tax Advantages and Long-Term Growth.(00:38:00) Overcoming Personal and Financial Challenges Through Real Estate.(00:41:00) Real Estate Strategies for Busy Professionals: Finding the Right Investments.(00:43:00) Selecting Low-Maintenance Real Estate Investments Suitable for Busy Lives.(00:46:00) Resources and Advice for Those New to Real Estate Investing.(00:49:00) How to Get Started with Real Estate Investing: The Importance of Choosing the Right Partners.Links and Resources:Get Featured On The Show!: passiveincomepilots.com/question Email Your Questions: ask@passiveincomepilots.comJoin Our Community: facebook.com/groups/passivepilotsConnect With Kathy: Real Wealth NetworkFederal Reserve of St. Louis Money SupplyHow to Conduct Due Diligence on an Investment WebinarStay tuned to Passive Income Pilots for more expert insights and strategies to fuel your journey to financial independence through smart investing.

What do you think of when you hear economist? If you are thinking dry, boring, or not funny - then you absolutely should tune in and hear Dr. Sean Snaith shared his forecast for 2024 and 2030. I have been a fan of Dr. Snaith (and he is okay with calling him Sean) for over 10 years. I get the forecasts that are put out by UCF Institute of Economic Forecasting of which he is the director. I asked him what he forecasts for 2024? The world is still working on getting out of the COVID 19 disruption. The economy will slow down and consumers in the US have faced a decline in what money can purchase in previous years before COVID. Labor market is strong right now as consumers are using credit cards. This overall impact on the economy is spending will impact individuals and families if they continue to use credit cards to pay their bills. Checks and balances folks, think how we as humans have unlimited wants vs. limited needs. Decisions have to be made and if resources are scarce. Best mentoring advice shared - It is impossible to know the future. The future is not your final step. There is an opportunity cost with every choice. You have no idea where your future will take you. You can do any job for a period of time as long as you know that it is not forever. We hope you enjoy this week's episode of The Intern Whisperer.   The Intern Whisperer Podcast is brought to you by Employers 4 Change - Increasing diversity through #Skills based #DiversityEquityInclusion #recruitment and #management for #interns and #employees alike. Apply today to be an #Employer4Change that invests in #intern #talent and #employees. Want a break? Play Intern Pursuit Game on Steam.  Thank you to our sponsor Cat 5 Studios. Podbean: https://internwhisperer.podbean.com YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC8c_T19-pyfghVuAEbOMmHg Follow us on our social channels Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/employers4change Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/employers4change Twitter: https://twitter.com/employer4change LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/employers4change

"Inflation will be with us for years to come." "You can't lower inflation without raising unemployment." "Supply chain disruptions will cause a recession." These are some of the fables told in recent years by economic forecasters.  Their job is to use empirical methods to explain why certain things happen in the economy but they're notoriously bad at it, their predictions no more reliable than that of a palm reader.  Why is this so?  Joe and Mark assess their record, offering some explanations for why it's so terrible, and consider how “the dismal science” might step up its game. (Recorded March 22, 2024.)

In this episode, we spoke to Laurent Ferrara, Professor of International Economics at SKEMA Business School. Laurent discussed the role of nowcasting, particularly in the realm of macroeconomic nowcasting. He delved into the details of the models and methods that have been proven effective in this domain. Laurent also talked about GDP nowcasting using Google data and shared some intriguing results from his recent research.Laurent is the program chair of the 44th International Symposium on Forecasting, which will be held in Dijon, France. He provided an overview of the conference program and explained why we should attend!

It's early in the year still, but as was the case last year, economic forecasts continue to be upended. The latest example just recently when a national jobs report came in stronger than expected and dampened prospects for interest rate cuts. Today we'll check in with one of our resident economists to get his take. Mike Switzer interviews Frank Hefner, director of the Office of Economic Analysis and a professor of economics at the College of Charleston.

China's economy is likely to pick up pace and grow steadily in 2024 after a bumpy recovery last year, propelled by the gradual increase in domestic demand and with more stimulus policies in the offing, officials and economists said on Wednesday.2024年1月17日，官员和经济学家表示，在去年的波折复苏后，受国内需求逐步增加和更多刺激政策的推动，中国经济可能会在2024年加速增长并稳步增长。As the broader economy is still facing pressures from a property downturn, lack of effective demand and risks associated with local government debts, economists said the country needs to set an annual GDP growth target of around 5 percent to boost business confidence, and the policy easing should focus on housing and fiscal measures.由于宏观经济仍然面临房地产低迷、有效需求不足和地方政府债务风险等压力，经济学家表示，中国需要设定一个约5%的年度GDP增长目标来提振商业信心，而政策放松应该集中在住房和财政措施上。Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Wednesday that China's GDP expanded by 5.2 percent year-on-year in 2023 to 126.06 trillion yuan ($17.63 trillion), surpassing the country's preset annual growth target of around 5 percent.国家统计局1月17日发布的数据显示，中国2023年GDP同比增长5.2%，至126.06万亿元人民币(17.63万亿美元)，超过了国家预先设定的约5%的年度增长目标。In the fourth quarter of 2023, the Chinese economy grew 5.2 percent year-on-year, following a 4.9 percent growth in the third quarter.在2023年，中国经济继第三季度增长4.9%之后，第四季度同比增长5.2%，。"China's 5.2 percent growth rate is higher than the anticipated global growth rate of around 3 percent, outpacing many major economies," Kang Yi, head of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at a news conference in Beijing on Wednesday. "China is projected to have contributed more than 30 percent of global economic growth in 2023, making it a primary engine driving global growth."1月17日，国家统计局局长康毅在北京的新闻发布会上表示：“中国5.2%的增长率高于预期的全球增长率（约3%），超过了许多主要经济体。预计到2023年，中国对全球经济增长的贡献率将超过30%，成为推动全球增长的主要引擎。”Despite the challenges and difficulties ahead, Kang said that China possesses many advantages and enjoys several opportunities, which outweigh the challenges.尽管未来仍面临挑战和困难，但康毅表示，中国拥有许多优势和机遇，这些优势能够克服挑战。He said that China's economy is bound to see a steady recovery and improvement in 2024, given the continuing recovery trend, the continuous deepening of reforms and ample policy scope.他表示，鉴于持续的复苏趋势、改革的不断深化和宽松的政策空间，中国经济在2024年必将迎来稳定的复苏和改善。Louise Loo, lead economist at British think tank Oxford Economics, said: "There's plenty to be positive about in China's year-end reported numbers. The cyclical trough is likely behind us."英国智库牛津经济研究院首席经济学家路易丝·卢（Louise Loo）表示：“中国年终报告的数字有很多值得肯定的地方。经济的周期性低谷很有可能已经过去。”She added that industrial production is likely to accelerate on improved capacity utilization, higher industrial profits, and forward-looking restocking needs.她补充说，工业生产可能会因更高的产能利用率和更高的工业利润，以及前瞻性的库存需求而加速。Industrial production is already showing signs of improvement, with China's value-added industrial output growing by 6.8 percent last month after a 6.6 percent growth in November.工业生产已经显示出改善的迹象，中国工业增加值在2023年11月增长6.6%后，于12月增长了6.8%。She said that keeping up with the current growth momentum will require an ongoing and coordinated stimulus effort over the next few quarters.她表示，要保持当前的增长势头，需要在未来几个季度持续和协调的刺激措施。Zou Yunhan, deputy director of the macroeconomic research office at the State Information Center's Department of Economic Forecasting, said she expects the nation's economy to expand by around 5 percent in 2024.国家信息中心经济预测部宏观经济研究室副主任邹云汉表示，预测2024年我国经济将增长约5%。"The momentum of China's economic recovery is poised to undergo further consolidation this year, propelled by robust policy support, the advancement of industrial transformation and upgrading, and the continuous deepening of reforms."“在强有力的政策支持、产业转型升级的推进和改革的不断深化的推动下，中国经济复苏的势头今年将进一步巩固。”Meanwhile, due to the "scarring effect" of the COVID-19 pandemic over the past few years, it could still take time for people's spending power to recover, Zou said.同时，邹云汉表示，由于过去几年新冠肺炎疫情的“创伤效应”，人们的消费能力恢复可能仍需要时间。Retail sales, a key measurement of consumer spending, increased by 7.4 percent in December, down from the 10.1 percent growth a month earlier.衡量消费者支出的关键指标——零售额在12月增长了7.4%，低于一个月前的10.1%。Yu Yongding, an academician at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said the contributions of consumption and net exports to GDP growth will likely be lower compared with 2023, and capital formation will thus play a bigger role in maintaining a high growth rate this year.中国社会科学院院士余永定表示，2024年的消费和净出口对GDP增长的贡献可能比2023年有所下降，因此资本形成在今年保持高增长率方面将发挥更大的作用。"If the growth rate of consumption in 2024 is lower than that in 2023, achieving a 5 percent GDP growth may require double-digit growth in infrastructure investment," he said.他说：“如果2024年的消费增长率低于2023年，那么实现5%的GDP增长可能需要基础设施投资的两位数增长。”Yu said that China should set an annual growth target of at least 5 percent, and the focus should be on expanding budgeted fiscal deficit rates and increase in treasury bonds to provide funding for infrastructure investment.余永定表示，中国应该设定至少5%的年度增长目标，重点应该是扩大预算财政赤字率和增加国债，为基础设施投资提供资金。NBS data showed that China's fixed-asset investment rose by 3 percent in 2023. Infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment grew by 5.9 percent and 6.5 percent, respectively, while real estate investment fell by 9.6 percent in 2023.国家统计局数据显示，2023年中国固定资产投资增长了3%。基础设施投资和制造业投资分别增长了5.9%和6.5%，但房地产投资下降了9.6%。Tom Orlik, chief economist at Bloomberg Economics, said that China's policymakers have been doing the right thing by attempting to manage the problem of oversupply without triggering a complete collapse in the real estate sector. He said there will be enough stimulus, financing and support for homebuyers this year.彭博经济(Bloomberg Economics)首席经济学家汤姆·奥尔利克(Tom Orlik)表示，中国的政策制定者一直在做正确的事情，试图在不引发房地产行业全面崩溃的情况下管理供应过剩的问题。他说，今年将有足够的刺激、融资和支持购房者。He said that China has the scope to keep monetary and fiscal policies supportive to help bolster the economy's recovery, adding that a forceful fiscal policy will play a bigger role in boosting domestic demand.他说，中国有空间保持货币和财政政策的支持，以帮助支撑经济的复苏，并补充说，有力的财政政策将在提振内需方面发挥更大的作用。Zheng Houcheng, chief macroeconomist at Yingda Securities, said a further reduction in the reserve requirement ratio as well as policy rate cuts will likely happen in the first half of 2024.英大证券（Yingda Securities）首席宏观经济学家郑厚成（Zheng Houcheng）表示，进一步降低存款准备金率以及政策利率的降息可能会在2024年上半年发生。propertyn. 所有物，财产；地产，房地产；房地产股票（或投资）（properties）reserve requirement ratio n.存款准备金率

China's gross domestic product expanded by 5.2 percent in 2023 - meeting the country's preset annual growth target of around 5 percent, fueled by a slew of policy measures taking effect gradually last year, official data showed on Wednesday.The country's annual GDP came in at 126.06 trillion yuan ($17.52 trillion) in 2023, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. For the fourth quarter of 2023, the Chinese economy grew 5.2 percent year-on-year, following a 4.9 percent growth in the third quarter. Experts called China's 2023 GDP growth as "relatively fast" in contrast to other major economies, highlighting China's role as a key growth engine for the world economy.Looking ahead to this year, they expect to see better economic performance with China's existing supportive policies continuing to take effect and more stimulus in the offing.China's value-added industrial output grew by 4.6 percent year-on-year in 2023. The figure rose by 6.8 percent in December after a 6.6 percent growth in November. Retail sales, a key measurement of consumer spending, grew by 7.2 percent for the year. And the retail sales in December increased by 7.4 percent versus the 10.1 percent growth a month earlier. Fixed-asset investment - a gauge of expenditures on items including infrastructure, property, machinery and equipment – rose by 3 percent in 2023, while in the first 11 months, it grew by 2.9 percent. The surveyed urban jobless rate came in at 5.1 percent in December from 5 percent in November, according to the NBS. Zou Yunhan, deputy director of the macroeconomic research office at the State Information Center's Department of Economic Forecasting, said China remains one of the most powerful engines for global growth, contributing around one-third of world economic growth in 2023. Looking to this year, she said the momentum of China's economic recovery is poised to undergo further consolidation, propelled by robust policy support, the advancement of industrial transformation and upgrading, and the continuous deepening of reforms.Wang Yiming, vice-chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, said China's 2023 GDP is significantly higher than that of major economies, including the United States, the eurozone and Japan.Looking ahead, he said the country still has scope to step up fiscal and monetary policy support this year, as the central government's debt level is not high and consumer price levels are low.According to a report by the Center for Forecasting Science at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, China's economy will maintain steady growth in 2024 with an estimated GDP growth rate of around 5.3 percent. Reporter: Ouyang Shijia

Join Mark Moss in an enlightening episode as he dives into the intricate world of investing, censorship, and economic trends. In the first segment, Mark shares six invaluable takeaways from Warren Buffett's mentor, Benjamin Graham, extracted from the timeless book 'The Intelligent Investor'. These lessons are not just historical artifacts; they're tools Mark has personally used to build multiple eight-figure portfolios, and he believes they can help you too.In the second part of the episode, the focus shifts to recent developments in the UK around censorship. Here, Mark analyzes leaked documents that reveal how anti-disinformation campaigns can be manipulated for political gains, impacting both the left and right sides of the spectrum. This discussion is critical for understanding the complex dynamics of modern media and information warfare.Finally, Mark delves into the current state of inflation, breaking down the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and its implications for the economy and investors. With his expertise, Mark provides insights into navigating these challenging economic times, offering advice on how to safeguard and grow your investments.Join us on this episode of the Mark Moss Show for a deep dive into the realms of smart investing, political machinations, and economic strategies in an ever-changing world.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode, we're joined by Ric Deverell, Macquarie's Chief Economist and Head of Net Zero, to discuss the economic landscape, what the next 12 months might have in store and how economic outlooks are forecast, given the unique nature of the current environment. Learn more about Macquarie's market commentary at: macquarie.com Relevant disclaimers and other information can be found here: macquarie.com/disclosures

Sir David Hendry, the renowned British econometrician, talks to hosts Gene Tunny and Tim Hughes about the state of economic forecasting and the transition to net zero greenhouse gas emissions. Among other things, Sir David talks about how to avoid major economic forecasting failures (e.g. UK productivity), forecasting global temperatures after volcanic eruptions, and the role of nuclear energy in the net zero transition. Sir David is currently Deputy Director of the Climate Econometrics group at Oxford. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. About Sir David HendrySir David F. Hendry is Deputy Director, Climate Econometrics (formerly Programme for Economic Modelling), Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School and of Climate Econometrics and Senior Research Fellow, Nuffield College, Oxford University. He was previously Professor of Economics at Oxford 1982--2018, Professor of Econometrics at LSE and a Leverhulme Personal Research Professor of Economics, Oxford 1995-2000. He was Knighted in 2009; is an Honorary Vice-President and past President, Royal Economic Society; Fellow, British Academy, Royal Society of Edinburgh, Econometric Society, Academy of Social Sciences, Econometric Reviews and Journal of Econometrics; Foreign Honorary Member, American Economic Association and American Academy of Arts and Sciences; Honorary Fellow, International Institute of Forecasters and Founding Fellow, International Association for Applied Econometrics. He has received eight Honorary Doctorates, a Lifetime Achievement Award from the ESRC, and the Guy Medal in Bronze from the Royal Statistical Society. The ISI lists him as one of the world's 200 most cited economists, he is a Thomson Reuters Citation Laureate, and has published more than 200 papers and 25 books on econometric methods, theory, modelling, and history; computing; empirical economics; and forecasting.What's covered in EP198Conversation with Sir David:[00:02:27] Economic forecasting: are we any better at it? [00:05:56] Forecasting errors and adjustments. [00:08:04] Widespread use of flawed models. [00:12:45] Macroeconomics and the financial crisis. [00:16:30] Indicator saturation in forecasting. [00:21:02] AI's relevance in forecasting. [00:24:23] Theory vs. data driven modeling. [00:28:09] Volcanic eruptions and temperature recovery. [00:32:26] Ice ages and climate modeling. [00:37:09] Carbon taxes. [00:40:10] Methane reduction in animal agriculture. [00:44:43] Small nuclear reactors: should Australia consider them?[00:49:08] Solar energy storage challenge. [00:54:00] Car as a battery. [00:57:01] Simplifying insurance sales process. [01:01:19] Climate econometrics and modeling.Wrap up from Gene and Tim: [01:03:23] Central bank forecasting errors. [01:07:12] Breakthrough in battery technology. [01:11:18] Graphene and clean energy. Links relevant to the conversationClimate Econometrics group at Oxford:https://www.climateeconometrics.org/Conversation with John Atkins on philosophy and truth mentioned by Tim:https://economicsexplored.com/2021/10/16/ep109-philosophy-and-truth/Info on solid state batteries and graphene:https://www.topspeed.com/toyota-745-mile-solid-state-battery/https://theconversation.com/graphene-is-a-proven-supermaterial-but-manufacturing-the-versatile-form-of-carbon-at-usable-scales-remains-a-challenge-194238https://hemanth-99.medium.com/graphene-and-its-applications-in-renewable-energy-sector-333d1cbb89ebThanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show's sponsor, Gene's consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

On this podcast episode, Taylor St. Germain from ITR Economics joins Jack Stack and Kylie Jackson to discuss the power of using accurate economic data to inform your business decisions, forecast obstacles, and take advantage of opportunities in the future. The Great Game of Business has partnered with ITR Economics to bring you the "Guess the GDP of Q4 2023 Challenge." Here's your chance to showcase your forecasting skills and walk away with a $1000 prize!  Learn more about our forecasting challenge here: https://www.greatgame.com/forecasting-challenge

If your looking to hold 5 to 10 years, the most likely scenario is the prices are going to rebound. Here's why...Interested in learning from me? Visit https://www.thetribeoftitans.info/coachingJoin our multifamily investing community for FREE for in-depth courses and live networking with like-minded apartment investors at the Tribe of TitansLink to subscribe to YouTube channel: https://tinyurl.com/SubYouTubeDiaryPodcastApple Podcasts: https://tinyurl.com/AppleDiaryPodcast Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/SpotDiaryPodcast Google Podcasts: https://tinyurl.com/GoogleDiaryPodcast Follow us on:Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/DiaryAptInv/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/Diary_Apt_Inv Instagram: https://bit.ly/3zvlcWCThis episode originally aired on July 19,  2023---Your host, Brian Briscoe, has been a general partner in 1088 units worth over $100 million and has been lead sponsor, asset manager, capital raiser, and key principal on these properties. He has developed a multifamily education community called the Tribe of Titans that helps aspiring investors learn the game, network with other like-minded professionals, and get their apartment investing business to the next level. He is founder of Streamline Capital Group, which will continue to acquire multifamily assets well into the future. He retired as a Lieutenant Colonel in the United States Marine Corps in 2021.Connect with him on LinkedInBrian@Steamlinecapital.com

Less than one year after announcing plans to develop 90 acres of land in Atlanta's Grove Park neighborhood, Microsoft is halting its plans. Rose reports the latest. Jeff Humphreys, the director of Economic Forecasting at UGA's Terry College of Business, talks with show host Rose Scot about the findings of the 2023 Georgia Economic Outlook. Plus, WABE education reporter Martha Dalton discusses a nearly $3 million grant that Sen. Jon Ossoff help secure for Morris Brown College.Lastly, Tom Grabowski, the founder of the HBCU All-Star Battle of the Bands, discusses how the competition will support high school and college students. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Every year, BPO companies promote thousands of supervisors and managers. These supervisors and managers are experienced workers because of their skill sets, and have been through training programs and certifications to enhance their leadership skills. But is that all that it takes?Our guest this week is a globe trotter and energetic Filipina. Kristine Bondoc is an experienced leader, mentor, entrepreneur, and executive. One of the most respected global operations leaders; expert in Operations Management, Business Analytics, Economic Forecasting, Product Development and Marketing. Kristine has mentored multiple leaders in the BPO industry and considers herself a student of life who will never cease to find avenues to learn.Kristine takes us through a road map of her professional milestones in multiple geographic locations and lessons she has taken with her, We also learn about the influence of her past mentors and leaders of their own leadership style, and emphasizes the importance of accessibility and respect in their approach. They mention their desire to be a leader who is inspiring and able to connect with people at all levels of the organization, and to create a culture in which all employees feel valued and able to bring their best selves to work. Kristine also touches on the idea that all roles in a company are important and that it is the leader's responsibility to create an environment where all employees are able to thrive and be themselves.Download this and learn more about the benefits of having a strategic, tactical and operational plan: Kristine Bondoc's Social Media: LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kristinebondoc/The Leadership Project is now pleased to partner with the Lighthouse Group. This partnership will help us to maximise our impact as we continue on our mission to empower leaders with the knowledge skills they need to create amazing teams and amazing workspaces.Join us in our mission at The Leadership Project and learn more about our organization here. https://linktr.ee/mickspiers You can purchase a copy of the Mick Spiers bestselling book "You're a Leader, Now What?" as an eBook or paperback at Amazon https://www.amazon.com/dp/B09ZBKK8XV

The holiday season is just around the corner, which brings with it cheer, merriment, and a sense of good will towards all men and women.  But for many families, it also brings a good deal of financial strain.  And perhaps this year more than any in the last decade, that stress is more acute.  The volatility of the global economy over the last three years has reached a fever pitch, with many expecting an even more dire 2023.  For the majority of economists and market prognosticators, a recession in 2023 is a foregone conclusion.  As inflation has remained stubbornly high, central banks around the globe have rushed to contain the fallout by raising interest rates aggressively.  As money becomes more expensive to borrow, the economy will inevitably contract. Combine that with COVID restrictions in China and the war in Ukraine, and we are in for some choppy seas. For them, the question is not if, but when and how deep.  But other economic experts believe that in spite of the turbulence, market fundamentals remain strong.  Inflation is abating, central banks are slowly taking their foot off the gas, and 2023 will be a blockbuster year for the global economy. The risk of recession is overblown, and the sky will not in fact fall.    Christopher Thornberg    BIO   Christopher Thornberg is Director of the UC Riverside School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development and an Adjunct Professor at the School. He founded Beacon Economics LLC in 2006. Under his leadership the firm has become one of the most respected research organizations in California serving public and private sector clients across the United States.    An expert in economic and revenue forecasting, regional economics, economic policy, and labor and real estate markets, Dr. Thornberg has consulted for private industry, cities, counties, and public agencies in Los Angeles, San Francisco and the Bay Area, San Diego, the Inland Empire, New York, Seattle, Orange County, Sacramento, Arizona, Nevada, and other geographies across the nation. He has also worked on Wall Street, advising hedge fund manager Paulson & Co. about macroeconomic issues.    A well-known media commentator, Dr. Thornberg has appeared on all the major networks, CNN, NPR, and is regularly quoted in major national dailies including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, and Los Angeles Times.    Steve Hanke   BIO   Steve H. Hanke is a professor of applied economics and founder and codirector of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise at the Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. He served on President Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers.    Hanke is also  a senior fellow at the Cato Institute in Washington, D.C., a senior fellow at the Independent Institute in Oakland, California, a senior adviser at the Renmin University of China's International Monetary Research Institute in Beijing, and a special counselor to the Center for Financial Stability in New York. Hanke is also a contributing editor at Central Banking in London and a contributor at National Review. In addition, Hanke is a member of the Charter Council of the Society for Economic Measurement and of the Euromoney Country Risk's Experts Panel.   Speaker Quotes  CHRIS THORNBERG: “If you're looking at Wall Street, I think 2023 is going to look like a recession. If you're looking at Main Street, I don't think it will ”.   STEVE HANKE: “We'll have I think about a 90% chance of a recession next year. You take the fuel out of the engine and it crashes on you”. The host of the Munk Debates is Rudyard Griffiths - @rudyardg.     Tweet your comments about this episode to @munkdebate or comment on our Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/munkdebates/   To sign up for a weekly email reminder for this podcast, send an email to podcast@munkdebates.com.     To support civil and substantive debate on the big questions of the day, consider becoming a Munk Member at https://munkdebates.com/membership Members receive access to our 10+ year library of great debates in HD video, a free Munk Debates book, newsletter and ticketing privileges at our live events. This podcast is a project of the Munk Debates, a Canadian charitable organization dedicated to fostering civil and substantive public dialogue - https://munkdebates.com/   Senior Producer: Jacob Lewis Editor: Adam Karch     

Guest: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director at Institute for Economic Forecasting at University of Central FloridaSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Dr. Snaith is the Director of the University of Central Florida's Institute for Economic Forecasting and a nationally recognized economist in the field of business and economic forecasting. An award-winning forecaster, researcher and professor, Snaith applies academic expertise to solve real-world problems. He has served as a consultant for local governments and multi-national corporations such as Compaq, Dell and IBM.  Snaith holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Pennsylvania State University. Snaith frequently is interviewed in national and regional media and is a sought-after speaker. He has been quoted in The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, The New York Times, The Economist and CNNMoney.com and has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business Network and Business News Network, based in Toronto. Sean correctly called the end of the great financial crisis in June 2009. Prior to that, Snaith was named by Bloomberg News as one of the nation's most accurate forecasters in 2008. In 2007, he was named California's most accurate forecaster by the Western Blue Chip Consensus Forecast. In this episode, we will talk about the Fed, inflation, and discuss how we are headed for a pasta-bowl recession. We focus the rest of the episode on the state of Florida and potential headwinds to growth such as rising housing costs, supply chain shortages, labor market shortages, and high overall inflation. Last, we discuss ways the state of Florida (and particularly Central Florida) can best position itself for future growth. Our host today is Steve Curley, CFA, prior President of CFA Society Orlando, current board member & co-founder of The Investors First Podcast. Please enjoy the episode. Follow us on Twitter and LinkedIn.

Gov. Gavin Newsom signed California's FAST Recovery Act on Labor Day, authorizing the creation of a council aimed to set minimum labor standards in fast food franchises. The council, composed of workers, franchise owners, corporate representatives and state officials, would also have the power to raise the minimum wage for fast food employees to $22. Of the 550,000 fast food workers in the state, most earn near minimum wage: $15 statewide for businesses with 26 or more employees, and higher in certain cities like San Francisco, where it's $16.32. Advocates of the legislation say it would also create better redress for wage theft and health and safety hazards. Critics have filed a referendum to block the law and turn it into a ballot measure. We'll talk about how the FAST Recovery Act could affect California's economy and its fast food workers. Guests: Ken Jacobs, chair, Center for Labor Research and Education at UC Berkeley. Farida Jhabvala Romero, labor correspondent, KQED. Christopher Thornberg, director, Center for Economic Forecasting and Development, UC Riverside School of Business; founding partner, Beacon Economics. Crystal Orozco, worker, McDonald's in Sacramento.

There has been a big surge in wine consumption on a macro level in recent years. California production is down due to both the removal of acres and climate challenges. Because national production cannot keep up with demand, imports have increased. Dr. Christopher Thornberg, Founding Partner at Beacon Economics and Director of UC Riverside Center for Economic Forecasting looks at big picture economic themes in the wine industry. From differentiation with sustainability, to an economic perspective on pricing water use, to the need for regional marketing efforts. Collaborating with the industry, local partners, and government can bolster the success for all people coming together to make great wines.   References: 83: Sustainability: An Advantage in any Market (Podcast) Beacon Economics California and U.S. Wine Production (Wine Institute) Central Coast Economic Forecast Christopher Thornberg's Biography Eco-Certifications Increase Sales Economic Impact of California Wine (Wine Institute) SIP Certified Sustainable Ag Expo November 14-16, 2022 | Use code PODCAST for $50 off UC Riverside Center for Economic Forecasting & Development Get More Subscribe wherever you listen so you never miss an episode on the latest science and research with the Sustainable Winegrowing Podcast. Since 1994, Vineyard Team has been your resource for workshops and field demonstrations, research, and events dedicated to the stewardship of our natural resources. Learn more at www.vineyardteam.org. Transcript Craig Macmillan  0:00  My guest today is Dr. Christopher Thornberg. He is a founding partner of Beacon Economics and he's the director of the UC Riverside Center for Economic Forecasting. Dr. Thornberg, thank you for being with us.   Dr. Christopher Thornberg  0:11  Great to be here.   Craig Macmillan  0:12  You are an economic forecaster, macro economic forecaster. And you have a lot of experience in all kinds of things. This is a wine show, obviously, wine and grapes. How do you see the role of wine in the bigger kind of economic picture in the United States?   Unknown Speaker  0:29  Yes, you know, is interesting. I'm a macro economist, I'm based here in California, I spend a lot of my time talking about big things, interest rates, inflation, consumer spending. But at the same time as a California based guy is a guy who's done lots of talks in wine country, I've also become relatively cognizant, shall we say, of the ebbs and flows of Ag and the wine economy in general, right here. In California. Obviously, when you think about places like Sonoma or Napa, it's incredibly important part of not only local production, but local tourism. And as such, you always have to walk, you know, sort of watch what's happening in these spaces in these industries. Now, of course, when you think about California wine, when you think about US wine, from a macro perspective, there are two things that are happening simultaneously over the last couple of years. The first thing has happened is another big surge in wine consumption, you think about the history of wine, we saw big gains and consumption in the early part of the century, it plateaued for a number of years. And all of a sudden, over the last few years, yet again, wine consumption on a per person basis is going up, people are buying good wine. So we know from a consumption standpoint, demand is strong. The other interesting part of this, of course has to do with the fact that California wine production is down. It's down, in part because of the removal of some acreage. But it's also of course down because we've had not exactly the best weather over the last couple of years. And so you do have this interesting situation whereby California production has not been able to keep up with, if you will, national demand. One of the results of that, of course, has been an enormous surge of imports into the United States. So so times are good from an external standpoint, but obviously producers here in the state are facing some substantial headwinds, whether we're talking about land, whether climate labor, and of course, the real question is, is how does this thing shake out? Where does this thing hit?   Craig Macmillan  2:25  That's what everybody's wondering, you know, the investment in vineyards and wineries is substantial. Everybody wants one I've discovered in my consulting career, everybody wants to get in not always such a great idea that takes a lot of capital. And it takes a long time. Many wineries are losing money for 10 years or more before you even get close to breaking even depending on the product and the place. I have had many conversations about well, what can we do to kind of protect us, you know, what can we do to kind of, you know, get it get ahead of imports? What can we do to make our product special? So that can we be protected from some of this? And I would love to know your thoughts on how can a producer of a good like wine or wine grapes goes into wine? What things can they do to try to gain a bigger market share, again, something like imports or how to protect themselves against losing more of the marketplace.   Unknown Speaker  3:16  I don't think California wines are losing market share. Like if you look at the numbers, for example, crop prices, they're way up, they're doing very well. Sonoma's prices are very high Napa's prices are very high. I mean, to give you a sense, remember I get I focus on the entire state. And I always have to point out that there are more acres of wine grape production in Fresno by a good margin than there are in Sonoma, Napa combined. Now a lot of people outside the state are shocked by that. But then I have to point out you know, California box-o-wine on some the bottom shelf there in the supermarket. That's all made in Fresno. It's a perfectly reasonable part of market as the case may be. But it's a different kind of situation. It is a commodity product, as opposed to the name brand products that are made, of course in the vintage regions. And so when we have this conversation, the question is which part of the conversation are we going to have? Right? Are we talking about the prestige dub? Are we talking about the commodity stuff? Obviously, where you're located, you'd say the prestige stuff is, is more important, in a lot of ways. The prestige wines are doing fine, but the prestige wine industry in general has a problem. And the problem is you already said it that people want to be in the industry. It is a an ego industry. Everybody who makes a gazillion in finance wants to have a winery. That's how you impress your friends. Correct. You're in Wall Street. And so you do have a lot of guys coming in. Primarily guys, I appreciate the sexism involved there but I think we know that the guys are coming in buying these. These ego wineries, if you will, are predominantly men. What they're doing is flooding the market with a tremendous amount of great products in a very odd way, because they don't care as much about profit margins. Now what happens, of course, is, if you are that small winemaker who doesn't want to go commodity, you're the small one winemaker who wants to make a quality product, you suddenly find yourself between the rock and proverbial rock and the hard place. The rock are the commodity guys, and the hard place are those rich guys who don't care about a profit, and how you navigate in between those. And, you know, as a macro economist, I'll be the first person to tell you I don't have any clue.   Craig Macmillan  5:36  Business Strategy thing there.   Unknown Speaker  5:37  It obviously is a narrow path you have to walk in, and in general, they do I know enough small, high quality wine growers, you know, you can do it. But you got to be modest in terms of your ability to, shall we say, have great success here, you're going to have to be very careful as you navigate that.   Craig Macmillan  5:55  You know, this actually, this reminds me of a conversation I've had many, many times, and that is how do we make ourselves stand out? Yeah, we need people to know us, we need people to respect that we do. And there's different kinds of ways you can do that. You can try to get people to say, oh, this is the best quality product, everybody jumps up and down. But how do you communicate that that's tough, you need scores, reviews, things like that, that you have no control over. Or you can say it's a price based thing. So we're going to try to be a bargain brand, we're gonna have this level of quality at this lower price, right? Makes sense. But there's also lots of other kinds of signaling something called virtue, virtue signaling, where you can say, hey, there's this other thing about us, that makes us really special. And some of it has to do with maybe family, a lot of wineries really focus on the fact that it's a family business. And you know, we're we're kind of the working class heroes, even though we have this amazing property in this edifice, winery bootstraps and that's great. There's also virtue signaling around sustainability, I have kind of wondered whether that signaling how effective that is. So for instance, this organization Vineyard Team has a sustainability certification called SIP sustainability in practice, and lots of folks have gotten certified folks who are making really good quality wine, folks whose farming practices I am familiar with, and we also certified wineries and they're doing a great job. One of the things I've always wondered is how responsive are consumers to things like virtue signaling? Do you have an idea how how people respond to that kind of thing?   Unknown Speaker  7:21  Yeah, no, no, no, listen, there's a whole literature on this in economics. We know virtue signaling is incredibly important in more industries than just wine. I mean, whether your whole foods, pretending you're organic, because they're not really in hand, or, or in so many other places. virtue signaling is a singular part of business, particularly today in this era, where there's a lot of concerns about the environment where things are going. So to me, I think it's something that the industry continues to need to invest in, along with what I would call the other kind of branding items. One of the things that got me into wine in general was my explorations of California wine country, which again, we all have to keep in mind. I think a lot of wineries find their best clients are often the ones who wander into their winery for that tasting. And one of the questions is, is Nomad as a region, making sufficient efforts on making wine tasting available to folks on a more regular basis? How are they going about especially now in the post COVID area, when if people suddenly have a myriad of potential attractions available to them? How is the region standing out there among all these other things that are now available to people after a couple years of closure and say, Hey, no, no, no, you still need to come back here. You need to come to Sonoma. Get up here to Healdsburg get out there to, you know, and Russian River products and how do you encourage them to be there? So I think that aspect right now has to be heavily in the minds of, of local development.   Craig Macmillan  8:59  So one of the things that I've observed, certainly on the Central Coast, and I think it applies in other areas as well, definitely, you have vineyards that are really production oriented, and selling their grapes out of the area, places like Napa Sonoma, for the Central Coast as an example. Then you have a couple of pioneers that try and say, hey, we're gonna keep some of this, they do well, that brings other people into the game. And then eventually, there's a need for other kind of other auxillary businesses and activities to come along. So you need hotels, you need restaurants, you get horseback riding and balloon rides, and then people start to come for a variety of reasons, as well as not just wine or even if they come for wine, they start to enjoy other things. How important do you think that is for creating a stable marketplace for the wine industry or encouraging the growth of the market for wine?   Unknown Speaker  9:46  Yeah, it listen, it's incredibly important for a number of reasons. Obviously, ultimately, your best customers are the customers who come to the winery who join your wine club who get that every three months case of wine. Every winery wants those direct people and the direct people are the ones are going to show up in a room. So you say you need to be part of a concerted effort locally to build the wine tourism industry. And yes, by the way, that means you have to have other attractions as well, as anyone who's gone wine tasting can tell you, after about four or five wineries, you're not tasting much of anything anymore. Yeah, yeah, you really need to have other things to do for the rest of the day. And that means having again, an economic development strategy locally that tries to build up the entire tourism industry, it's the restaurants, it's the hotels, secondary attractions, and how do you tie them all together? And how do you build those regional collaborations that benefit everybody? How do you build the money necessary for that? The other thing, of course, ultimately, is that by doing that, you're driving the long run brand. You know, everybody knows Napa, you go anywhere in the world, you say Napa, people know Napa, you get to Paso Robles, there's some awareness, certainly better than it was 20 years ago, but nowhere near that of Napa. But over time, as you get more clients, high end clients who were serving the local wine at a dinner party, other people get aware of it. And it builds up until the point that you to have, if you will, almost that international reputation of a place like Napa. Now, what's interesting is, you know, when we think about this, particularly here in California, there is what I would call those those organizational outreach efforts. How do we make this all work for everybody outside, but here in California, we have an interesting problem is we don't make it very easy for local governments to do these kinds of things. Because here in California, for example, we don't build enough housing. You know, the Paso Robles region, for example, is shockingly devoid of multifamily housing, but it's multifamily housing you need for those young folks who are just trying to break into the industry, for the folks who are going to work in your wine tasting room or work in these restaurants. If you're not building multifamily, how are you going to build your labor force and able to be able to man, all these tourist operations, it has to be really a combined vision, because there's a lot of things that go sideways in these efforts. And ultimately, if you will diminish the the all you know, it's interesting, I'm an economist. And so at some level, I always come to the conversation with a big role to be played by the market, right. That's what economists are all about the market. But what we're talking about here is a brand reputation, which is a social product, we own it jointly, if you're in Pasco, if you're in Sonoma, if you're in the Finger Lakes, if you're in, in Walla Walla, Washington, you all own commonly that brand, and you have to have a local conversation to make sure you're all doing the right thing to support that brand. And that means you desperately need local, some sort of local cooperation. Typically public doesn't have to be could be a nonprofit, or public private partnership, whatever it is, but you need to have those institutions there to drive the whole thing forward. The good news is yet again, wine is one of those things that kind of attracts everybody's attention. It's almost like Hollywood, but slightly less evil. And if you can get people interested, because it's fun, it gets people to the table. But you have to have that regional collaboration, you got to make sure people are there. And it takes these kinds of community conversations.   Craig Macmillan  13:31  Are there organizations, people positions, that should be could be leadership in that process? And what role did the producers themselves have in this process, because like you said, I need to have folks who can work for me at a wage that I can afford to pay. And quite frankly, I need it to be stable. I don't want to put a year of in training, and it's very specialized thing, and then have them bail, and have to start all over again. I want to have employees that are happy, and they're confident they're settled. So what role does something like the grower community having this effect? I mean, do you go to meetings and say, hey, we need housing? Do you go to the politicians and say, hey, we were gonna lobby you to take this seriously? What's the strategy?   Unknown Speaker  14:13  My personal advice on that is, again, every region should have some sort of public private partnership, right? You build up some sort of local wine tourism chamber, if you will. And you bring in public plank, private clients, you put money into a kitty and use that to push forward the kind of conversations necessary, whether it's about branding, tourism or local, if you will, development needs, you got to have everybody at the table for that kind of coordination and cooperation, for better or for worse. The nice thing about government in this particular case is they can enforce if you will, some sort of fairness and supportive such an organization. One of the things I always worry about when it comes to the strictly private nonprofits I get like a Chamber of Commerce is the tendency for free riding, you're always gonna have two winemakers who are going to be very happy to, shall we say, take advantage of making money off the name brand, but they're not going to participate in the in that social efforts. And it's good to have a little authority, if you will, to make sure everybody's contributing at some level to ultimately, what's good for the social good. So that's helpful as well. And of course, that one of the bigger issues here has to do with how such organizations deal with whatever called some of the broader pressures we're dealing with. Because like, when you talk about housing, it's not just ag, right? It's everybody. And they have to be there to bring wines point of view to the table, when you have planning meetings, when you're discussing the lack of multifamily that has to be the voice of the community at those particular tables. That's, of course, particularly profound here in California. But there's been a big decline in wine production state over the last couple of years. And it's because we've had some pretty hideous weather, incredibly dry. We know we are in a big water shortage, the ag industry in general has got to be part of the solution to water shortages here in the state. And by the way, it behooves the wind industry to be part of the process to get ag to the table. You know, it's interesting, when you think about the water shortages that we're dealing with right now, a lot of folks point at, say, for example, nuts, there's, that's a big enemy. No, until we're growing nuts, how dare we grow nuts in this state,.   Craig Macmillan  16:30  So many gallons to produce a pound almonds, that was the big one a couple of years ago.   Unknown Speaker  16:33  But what's the value of that pound of almond see, you have to think about the dollars coming off the trees coming off the vine or treesout of the ground, it's not gallons per pound that matters, it's gallons per dollar that matters. And the problem you have with water in the state of California, is this just allocated on the basis of 120 year old agreements, there's no economic logic used to assign where that water is used. It's not just oh, take it away from the farmers to get into the cities, we have to understand that high value crops suffer as well. So it behooves everybody in the ag industry to come to the table to have these conversations. Because if you're not there, if you're if you're part of this, what's almost seems to me to be a boycott of negotiations over water, that's what ag is, right now, we're just boycotting this, if you even if you even bring it up, we're gonna we're gonna ask you, do you think people should stop eating eventhough that's a ridiculous question, you can't do that. You got to be at the table, you got to acknowledge the problems, acknowledges solutions and work towards a compromise. And again, I think the wine industry, the wine grape industry, here in the state has a lot to say about this. And they should be part of that conversation that should be part of pushing that conversation.   Craig Macmillan  18:02  So this is a really interesting division they've seen philosophically amongst growers, and also other areas. If I have pumps, if I have wells on my land, the water that comes out of that, well, is that a private good? Is that benefits me, and is not somebody else's property? Or is it a public good, that I'm taking advantage of and we're all going to hit a tragedy of the commons? Well, okay, I'm using a bunch of terminology that and that's where a lot of conflict comes from is if I'm treating it as a private good, or am I being quote unquote, responsible. You hear people say that, and this treating it like a public good, then what kind of benefit am I getting for what I'm doing? So I very much get your point, I would love to hear a little bit more about if I am drawing a public good and much like grazing sheep on the commons, where it came from, but I'm contributing to the economy. I'm hiring people, I'm paying wages and paying taxes, protecting this land from some other use. That's another thing.   Unknown Speaker  18:58  I don't I don't like that term at all.   Craig Macmillan  19:00  Okay, go ahead. Hit me.   Unknown Speaker  19:03  You're protecting the land from another use. What does that mean?   Craig Macmillan  19:06  Oh, it's an open space argument. If you if you consider vineyards to be open space, then I'm keeping this land in open space, as opposed to letting a big housing development go in.   Unknown Speaker  19:15  Okay, well, first of all, we have more wealth, way more wind acreage, and we have need for new housing in California at the moment. So I'm a little dubious of that specific argument. And I think that the whole idea of market economics is it allows whatever scarce resource to be used at its greatest possible potential. If a hunk of land is more valuable as houses than it is winegrapes, then we should be building housing there. That's the logical economic outcome. Unless there's some sort of externality we can point to and there may well be there's a value to open space that often doesn't get priced into these conversations. That's a completely different debate for a completely I think different show is as the case may be. But in general, look, let me put it this way. Water is a public good. It just is. We know that. All right, nobody owns the water, the water under your land is part of a massive aquifer. It's not just under your land is sloshes over the place, just like the river running by your farm, it has people upstream and downstream. And you don't want the people upstream of you taking all the water before it gets to you. I don't think you should be allowed to take all the water for gets the next person down the way, we again have to have a cooperative solution for how to deal with this water question. Now in general, if we acknowledge it's a public good, there should be a public price for the product. It's as simple as that people should be paying for the water they use, which they don't do in this state. At any real level, our water agencies charge people on the basis of cost, which is not a market price, it's not the relevant figure, we need to price water at a level that will basically constrain usage to a reasonable sustainable amount. Now guess what? The good news for wine grape growers, particularly for higher end wine grape growers, is you'll be able to afford a higher price. Why? Because you're producing a high profit margin usually, sometimes water is not your cost, you could do it. Whereas folks would probably get pushed out as yeah, I would anticipate that some hay farmers may no longer grow hay. Now, by the way, before we feel sad for the Hey, farmers, remember, if I'm talking about using a market, that, hey, farmers are going to get paid for not using their water. And by the way, they will almost assuredly make a hell of a lot more money selling their water than they are selling the hay. Yet again, we end up with a good social outcome all the way around. This is a win win win proposition that I'm suggesting here. But again, it's amazing the mental lock we have when it comes to having conversations about applying even basic market mechanisms to water consumption. When as a quote unquote capitalist economy, we seem to rely on markets to supply most of our basic day to day goods. It's interesting. Yeah.   Craig Macmillan  22:14  So this is just my perspective. I'm curious, would you agree that there's a lot of resistance to the idea of paying for water?   Unknown Speaker  22:19  We already pay for water. I mean, everybody pays a little bit, but obviously, the are wildly different. What I pay for my water at my house in Los Angeles is completely different than what the guy's paying for water for hay in Imperial County, which is different than what the winegrape farmer in Fresno is paying for his water. So we all pay completely different prices. For the most part, those prices are way below what they should be. Really all ends up being some bureaucrat out there saying okay, well you're paying under so you can only consume X amount. Again, that's the wrong way of doing things. We really want prices to be more equilibrated. It means allowing the market to set some sort of price, and then allowing the various market participants to purchase what they can economically do at that price level. Is it complicated? Not to go off topic here. But let me just your typical, I've done some of these calculations, your typical hay farmer Imperial County makes about from best case scenario, 15 to maybe $50 per acre foot of water, they used to grow hay, right? There is debate going on in Orange County right now about opening and desal plant, that desal plant to be clear will produce water at something on the order of 2000 to $2,300 per acre foot. And of course, that doesn't even include the environmental damage such plants create because they are bad for the oceans. We know that. Why would we do that? Why is it Orange County's paying those farmers in Imperial I don't know. let's give them $400 An acre foot that's roughly 10 times what they're making growing hay. By the way, that still leaves you $1,600 An acre foot to do environmental remediation. Move the water to Orange County. Economic remediation if you think parts of the Imperial County will suffer because there's less hay being grown. I'm not sure what it would be but maybe there's somebody getting hurt their. To me there's so much money being left over how can this state be anything but better off with that transaction taking place? The only as far as I can tell the only agents who suffer are the cows and horses in Korean and Japan are going to be denied their lunch.   Craig Macmillan  24:42  You do have to put the frame on you do have to put on the box. You know what area are we looking at and what's a rational box to draw? And then who are the players in that box and what's the resource and how much resources there right here are you talking about the making a market for Wwater. Aren't markets, volatile, unpredictable, potentially dangerous? I mean, that's a value loaded word. I know, but.   Unknown Speaker  25:09  What does that mean? Exactly? We have markets for apartments and market for home and markets, gas markets for milk. They work everywhere. What really were afraid of a market. Since when? This is a market economy. There are places that markets don't work very well. I agree with that, by the way, health care markets horrendous. We don't we don't need markets running health care. That's a separate conversation for a different podcast. I'd you know, I just opened up a massive can there. But when it comes to this, isn't this isn't healthcare, water is water. And markets make sense.   Craig Macmillan  25:44  Again, how would a group of growers engage that? Can you see wine grape growers being leaders because their crop is different. That's again, one of these things we've had danger in a multi-ag, in multi crop counties is like the wine folks, you're gonna like, hey, we don't use anywhere near what these guys use. But you don't want to throw that out there. You want to throw that stone because we need to get them involved right in the plan. And yet winemakers have a couple of things going for them. Number one, they have prestige. So I think that they get attention. They have a commonality that I think holds them together better than other crops, because everybody's in the same boat. And yeah, commodity growers are in the same boat. But I've seen this in wine where people are a little bit more willing to get together. There is a lot of conflict within the group, obviously. Can you see growers being proactive towards this process and saying, hey, we think this is a good idea, we think this will not only help us we'll have everybody else does the sustainability aspect here because people want to be sustainable. So they're going to be looking for things that say, Hey, this is going to help us have water and also we're gonna be able to use it equitably. Can you see the movement there? What does that look like? Or have you seen examples of this kind of thing in other situations?   Unknown Speaker  25:44  listen, where your hometown Paso Robles, the classic case of this, right, because we know there that there's our growers and buyers who are heavily involved with local water conversations. They can have an they should have a seat at the table, whether it's local, or statewide, or national. The industry's sustainability, at some level is ultimately tied to the sustainability of overall agriculture in the state, just like your sustainability, as a brand is going to be tied to your local branding and tourist efforts. You have to understand the broader macro nature of the world you exist in and be part of those broader processes. By the way, what I just said is true, not just for conversations about water, or housing, it's conversations about politics in general, not to go too far off into left field here. But a lot of Americans right now feel completely alienated from politics as it exists right now in the US, you look at both parties who are talking about topics and conversations that seem almost completely bizarrely foreign to your actual day to day living your world. And you wonder how we got here. And again, it's a function of a lack of participation. We are social creatures, we exist within a community. And when the community starts going directions, we don't understand, then we have to look in the mirror and ask, is it because I'm not being part of those conversations? And if so, how do I become part of those conversations? How do I get involved? And the answer is being a leader yourself, or supporting organizations that are going to go out and lead on your behalf. It's about being involved, which, again, when you're trying to build a brand, when you're trying to make sure you have enough workers on the wine farm and in the wine tasting shop, I appreciate how hard that is. If you're relying on somebody else to make the right decision, well, then you're not going to be able to, shall we say have a moral high ground to complain when the decision is not what should happen have happened. We have to remember that we have to remember that the that the broader ag community, wine producers wine grape producers can be part of this broader conversation. And indeed they should.   Craig Macmillan  29:16  And perhaps they need to be.   Dr. Christopher Thornberg  29:18  Yes, I think so.   Craig Macmillan  29:19  We're talking about an imperative here. Yeah. Yeah. And that probably applies to lots of other things. We've seen it with habitat. We've seen it around pesticide use. We've seen our worker equity, and a lot of really positive things have happened in the last 20 or 30 years. This is the next one. I go back and I look at sustainability reports. And it was from various companies and I see lots of stuff about habitat. I see a lot of stuff about workers, electricity starting to show up more and more. They almost never touch on pesticides. That's like the third rail, which is too bad because the industry has been doing a much better job last 30 years than they did but then the one thing that I always noticed is missing is water. There's nothing about really what are we doing about water in some cases they do, don't get me wrong. Some folks are very out there saying, Hey, look at what we're doing, but a lot of them are not. And I think that may have to become, like you said, part of the identity and big focus for how people behave, and getting involved at different levels.   Dr. Christopher Thornberg  30:11  And now more than ever, because we all know that California is drying out as part of the climate change that's around us. We still have lots of water. You know, I keep saying I've always say that we don't have, if you will, a drought in as much as we really don't have enough water to go around. We do if you actually sat down and applied basic water conservation efforts, you would actually see we have plenty of water in this day, we just have to use a smarter, that's where we just fall over. Because we don't seem to be able to get to that conversation that ag can change, they can continue to thrive through this process. You we got to stop the whole, every time there's any kind of conversation about change. The first place we go is existential threat, you know?   Craig Macmillan  31:05  Yeah, exactly. Oh, yeah. Threat to my life. That's a tough one. That's a tough one. It's a very basic kind of socio sociological, psychological reaction. You know, the change is like, Oh, my lifestyles threatened. Me, and my family has done this for 1000 years, whatever, which completely aligns the fact that you okay, your people been on the land for 150 years, but they weren't wearing sneakers. You're wearing sneakers now. They weren't wearing blue jeans, you're wearing blue jeans. They didn't have diesel powered tractors, you have diesel powered tractors now. And all of those things, some of them are about just changes in society and the way people dress and and culture, but also a lot of it's about efficiency.   Dr. Christopher Thornberg  31:42  And you didn't have 40 living in California, and you didn't have a 20 year drought behind you. The world is not same nor should your life be.   Craig Macmillan  31:53  And it's not gonna be Yeah, well, that's great. This is pretty much the time that we've got, I would love to just sit down and like have a beer with you. This is I was gonna, I was gonna ask you about Veblen goods. But I think that might be a totally different show, not a different episode. What is what is one thing you'd recommend to our listeners just in general.   Dr. Christopher Thornberg  32:13  I exist in a world as an economist right now, where there are economic realities. And then there are public narratives. In the 25, 30 years, I've been studying the economy, never have I seen such a massive gap between public narratives and the economic data. How many times does the newspaper use the term cliff were at the cliff edge, we're on the constantly right, and we have panicked ourselves to ridiculous point. And as a result of that, we paralyzed ourselves for fears that don't actually exist. So my one advice to everybody out there is turn off the crisis mode, you got to turn it off, let it go. The world changes, we all have to sit down and understand that. And from a community standpoint, we could figure out the best way to move forward, if we can have conversations about how we all adapt together. But if everybody's screaming under the world, everybody's screaming crisis, everybody's creating an existential threat where it doesn't exist. Again, we're paralyzed. Thus, we cannot respond to crises. Thus, the crises become that much worse. By not allowing that mentality to exist, we can actually take these things on, and all be better off, but it means Yeah, it means taking a step back and being a little less selfish and, and a little more willing to hear other people's opinions and outputs and and moving accordingly. We live in and I think we live in a period of time where people are having a tough time with that. And that's we again, you gotta look in the mirror.   Craig Macmillan  33:48  That is great advice. Very insightful. Where can people find out more about you?   Unknown Speaker  33:52  Yeah, well, Beacon Economics, beaconecon.com. We do all sorts of stuff. You'll find some stuff I write on a regular basis, which goes around to a lot of these topics we touched on here, so www.beaconecon.com.   Craig Macmillan  34:05  Our guest today was Dr. Christopher Thornberg, founding partner of Beacon Economics and director of EC UC Riverside Center for Economic Forecasting. Dr. Thornberg, thank you so much. This has been a real pleasure. This has been really really fun for me.   Unknown Speaker  34:18  Absolutely. Me as well. I enjoyed the conversation.   Transcribed by https://otter.ai

Inflation hasn't been much of an issue since Jimmy Carter was in office. But—like Mom Jeans and mullets—it's totally back. This time, though, it feels different. We're paying more than ever at the pump and in the grocery stores, so what's to blame? Is it government spending? Supply chain shortages? The war in Ukraine? We've got questions, so we turned to UCF economist Sean Snaith for answers. Additional Resources Want to learn more? Check out Snaith's latest U.S. Economic Report from UCF's Institute for Economic Forecasting. Featured Guests Sean Snaith, Ph.D. - Director, Institute for Economic Forecasting   Episode Transcription Paul Jarley: Inflation hasn't really been an issue since the Carter years. That Saturday Night Live skit was Dan Aykroyd impersonating Jimmy Carter. Inflation is definitely not the friend of people who are on fixed incomes. Today's inflation, though, feels a little different. Some people think it's not a surprise. We printed a bunch of money during the pandemic, and we're suffering the consequences to that. Spending was high, particularly government spending. Some people blame it on supply chain shortages. Some people blame it on the war in Ukraine. Some people believe it's a government conspiracy. To sort through all of those things, when Sean gets here, we will have a conversation with him that will help us shed some light on where inflation really is today and where we think it's going in the future. Well, here he is. I'm assuming you're in big demand these days. Sean Snaith: Yeah. I've spoken on at least two occasions about inflation over the past year and a half. Paul Jarley: So you raising your prices, given all this demand? Sean Snaith: No, competition's too fierce. Paul Jarley: Really? Yeah. Sean Snaith: Yeah. Economists are a dime a dozen. Paul Jarley: Well, that's probably true, but you're the prettiest one I have, buddy. Sean Snaith: Aw. You're like my magic mirror. What fairy tale was that? Who's the fairest economist in the land? Paul Jarley: Oh, that's not even close. I mean, it's a low bar if you've met most economists, right? Sean Snaith: I build a career on low expectations. Paul Jarley: There's no GQ for economics. I've never seen it. Sean Snaith: No. We did do a GDP GQ... Paul Jarley: There you go. Very nice. Sean Snaith: But yeah, the model was not an attractive man. Paul Jarley: I would imagine not. So how unattractive is it right now? Sean Snaith: Well, we're making the call when our release goes out that we are in or very close to a recession right now. And speaking to different groups and to the media over the past year, all of this can be traced back to the policy response to COVID-19 in 2020. Paul Jarley: We'll come to that in a couple minutes. A few weeks ago I was driving home and when I drive home from the gym, I tend to put on sports talk radio. It's my time to kind of catch up with. And the guy was railing against the inflation number in the sense that he didn't believe it, that he thought the reported one was too low. And he was quoting the doubling in gas prices over a period. And yeah. So talk a little bit about how that inflation number is actually put together and what it really means. Sean Snaith: Many of the variables in macroeconomics have measurement issues. Financial markets, interest rates... Paul Jarley: Pretty simple stuff right? Sean Snaith: To the second on the spot. When you start talking about GDP, employment, unemployment inflation, now you're dealing with something that's not as directly observable. And especially for something like the price level, we know what the price of individual commodities are. We know much wheat and soybean costs. We know much corn costs, how much a gallon of gas or gallon of milk costs, but the price level's not observable. So we, the economics profession, the government, comes up with proxies to try to gauge that.

The International Monetary Fund slashed its prediction for global economic growth in 2022. Some big reasons: the war in Ukraine, fallout from sanctions on Russia, and the pandemic. Those factors are complicating the jobs of economic forecasters everywhere. Today, we dig into it. We’ll also revisit those Trump-era tariffs, examine the market for digital voices and check in on the evolving economics of streaming platforms.

The International Monetary Fund slashed its prediction for global economic growth in 2022. Some big reasons: the war in Ukraine, fallout from sanctions on Russia, and the pandemic. Those factors are complicating the jobs of economic forecasters everywhere. Today, we dig into it. We’ll also revisit those Trump-era tariffs, examine the market for digital voices and check in on the evolving economics of streaming platforms.