Podcasts about national crime victimization survey

Donate to Project Share: https://www.canadahelps.org/en/pages/annual-holiday-fundraiser-2/Today, we look at the channel Thinking to Infinity to see if he can use morality to prove the existence of god. Spoiler: He accidentally does the opposite.Gay Unicorn Gary Merch: https://vicedrhino.creator-spring.com/Cards:Is God Evil? Maybe…:https://youtu.be/0g7Rl6zJbfYWhere Do Atheists Get Their Morals?

On May 13th, 1998, Rebecca Wight and Claudia Brenner went hiking through Furnace State Park. Unbeknownst to the couple, they were being stalked by Stephen Carr who would ultimately attack the two women unprompted.  Join us as we discuss the unfortunate events that unfolded, the "gay and trans panic" defense used in court, and statistics surrounding crimes against the LGBTQ+ community.    Twitter and Instagram - @biarpodcast Facebook - Bug in a Rug Email us your ideas at biarpodcast@gmail.com   Sources: 12 Crimes That Changed the LGBT World (advocate.com) Appalachian Trail Histories | Rebecca and Claudia · LGBTQ Hate Crime (Student Exhibit) (appalachiantrailhistory.org) CDE (cjis.gov) Fact Sheet on Injustice in the LGBTQ community | National Sexual Violence Resource Center (NSVRC) Gay panic defense - Wikipedia Imgur: The magic of the Internet Killed For Being Gay: The Murder of Rebecca Wight | by Verity Partington | Medium LGBT people nearly four times more likely than non-LGBT people to be victims of violent crime - Williams Institute (ucla.edu) Michaux State Forest (pa.gov) Murder of Rebecca Wight - Wikipedia Rebecca Wight and Claudia Brenner - Newspapers.com™ The Gay/Trans Panic Defense: What It is, and How to End It (americanbar.org) Victimization rates and traits of sexual and gender minorities in the United States: Results from the National Crime Victimization Survey, 2017 | Science Advances Wayback Machine (archive.org)

It's Monday, June 17th, A.D. 2024. This is The Worldview in 5 Minutes heard at www.TheWorldview.com. I'm Adam McManus. (Adam@TheWorldview.com) By Adam McManus Five Christian sanitation workers died in Pakistan of inhaling toxic gases Five Christian sanitation workers in Pakistan have died since June 11th from inhaling toxic gases, highlighting how they are forced to work without proper safety equipment, reports Morning Star News. Irfan Masih, Ratan Masih, and Babar Masih succumbed on June 12th to the poisonous gases while cleaning a sewer disposal well in the Satellite Town of Bhalwal in the Punjab Province. A fourth Christian worker, Naeem Masih, was in critical condition at Sargodha District Headquarters Hospital. In Sindh Province, two Christians Yunus Hidayat and Yunus Masih, and a Hindu, Badal Gujrati, died on June 11th after they inhaled toxic gases. The tragedy in Punjab Province struck when a supervisor forced the workers to enter a well without proper safety equipment. Families of the deceased workers later staged a protest by placing the workers' bodies in front of the Bhalwal municipal office. The protesters demanded Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz Sharif order an inquiry and take action against those responsible for the deaths. They also demanded the government provide safety equipment to sewer workers, lamenting that dozens have died due to toxic gases without any action taken to address the dangers. Sikandar Farman, a Christian who was formerly a member of the Bhalwal Municipal Committee, said, “Our brothers continue to die in manholes. but their deaths have failed to move the government. How many more lives will it take for the authorities to understand the plight of these workers?” Matthew 7:12 says, "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets." Sadly, in Pakistan, Christians are considered second-class citizens, referred to as the Dalits, untouchable members of social groups that have historically been marginalized in the caste society. Kate Middleton, Princess of Wales, makes first appearance since Christmas Kate Middleton, Princess of Wales, was seen for the first time this year as she attends Trooping the Colour, a military parade celebrating the birthday of King Charles III, reports Britain's Metro paper. A 41-gun salute takes place in Green Park and King Charles is then joined by members of the Royal family on the balcony of the palace as they watch a spectacular flyover courtesy of the Royal Air Force's Red Arrows.  (Watch a 20-second video) The Princess of Wales has not been seen in public since Christmas Day of last year as she underwent abdominal surgery before then starting cancer treatment. In an update on her recovery, Middleton said, “I am making good progress, but as anyone going through chemotherapy will know, there are good days and bad days. My treatment is ongoing and will be for a few more months.” Armed civilian defended herself against thugs Police are investigating a shooting that occurred on May 21 at a Walmart in Auburn, Washington, reports Fox13 Seattle. At around 3:30 a.m., officers responded to reports of an attempted robbery inside the parking lot.  The 53-year-old victim was sitting in her car overnight when two people approached her with guns, demanding her property. She then pulled out her own gun and shot at them. The suspects shot back, injuring her.  When the police arrived, they found the victim and treated her at the scene. Though she is suffering from a single gunshot wound, she is expected to recover fully. The Auburn Police Department released one of their trained police dogs who tracked and located the two suspects who were brought into custody. FBI's suspicious claims about dramatic drop in crime On June 13th, The Worldview reported that the FBI documented a dramatic drop in crime. The federal agency claimed that in the first quarter of this year there was a 26.4% drop in murders, a 25.7% drop in rapes, a 17.8% drop in robberies, a 12.5% drop in aggravated assaults, and a 15% drop in property crimes. However, after The Worldview did some additional research, we discovered that the FBI statistics are incomplete at best. That's according to John Lott, the president of the nonprofit Crime Prevention Research Center who held a brief role in the Dept. of Justice under former President Donald Trump. He said, “It's just a small portion of the issue. The reason why we have the National Crime Victimization Survey [an annual survey conducted by the Dept. of Justice] is because we know most crimes are not reported to police." Lott said those statistics make up less than 45% of the violent crimes that are committed in the U.S. and only 32% of property crimes. Victims are not reporting incidents as often because they don't believe anyone will be punished. He claimed that only 8% of total violent crimes in cities result in arrest, and the number is even smaller for property crimes. Lott explained that there are multiple underlying issues. There are fewer experienced officers on the streets, fewer police reports are being made, crime victims are not going down to the station to fill out forms, and — perhaps most significantly — certain reporting standards have changed. For instance, if a felony assault was pleaded down to a misdemeanor in court, it would not be included in the FBI's data. In addition, as the Heritage Foundation documented, the George Soros-funded rogue District Attorneys across America are soft on crime, refusing to prosecute many criminals at all.  That also would lead to a misleading, false drop in crime. Clarification on Texas abortion statistics On June 6th, The Worldview reported that the Texas abortion ban went into effect after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June 2022.  While we noted that Texas reported 67 abortions the following month and 3 abortions the month after that, compared to an average of 6,000 abortions per month the year before, we should have clarified that those were surgical abortions. Sadly, the “kill pill” abortifacient can be legally ordered through the mail and a Texas mother can murder her pre-born child at any time in Texas.  Those chemical abortions are not documented nor reported to the state, as noted by the Foundation to Abolish Abortion. While some states might claim that they are “Abortion Free” due to their ban on surgical abortions after Roe v. Wade was overturned, too many mothers are aborting their babies chemically with the Abortion Kill Pill known as mifepristone. In fact, 63% of mothers who abort today are aborting chemically. Check out the 3-minute trailer for a 5-part docuseries entitled “Abortion Free”  through a special link in our transcript today at www.TheWorldview.com. Listen to this soundbite. “ABORTION FREE TRAILER: “The crazy reality is in these states that say they're ‘abortion free' now abortion has never been easier. I could abort my baby in any of the 50 states.” Proverbs 31:8 says, “Speak up for those who cannot speak for themselves.” By the way, for a $25 donation to the producers of the 5 episodes, you can watch them. Indiana donor loves our use of Scripture connected to the news To help fund The Worldview newscast for another year, one anonymous donor in South Bend, Indiana generously gave $2,000! When I called him up, this is what he said. SOUTH BEND, INDIANA DONOR: “At the end of the day, what we really appreciate is the world news in a concise Christian worldview. And then also there's, there's normally an uplifting story where most news, it's all doom and gloom. “We really enjoyed the uplifting story of the father and the sons that flipped over while kayaking, and when it seemed like the father lost all hope, reached his hand out, and the guy on the jet ski saved his life.” McMANUS: “At the end of that story, I wrote, “No doubt, the father echoes the sentiment of Psalm 9:1: “I will give thanks to You, Lord, with all my heart, I will tell of all Your wonderful deeds” because, as a Christian, I believe that God supernaturally intervened and used those two men to help save the father and the sons from drowning in the Colorado River. Do you appreciate our use of Scripture like that?” SOUTH BEND, INDIANA DONOR: “Absolutely! It's very unusual in day-to-day life for a Scripture verse to be used in real life. My unfortunate experience is church is something we do on Sunday and doesn't apply to our life -- Monday through Saturday. “I go back to one of my bosses. He said, ‘We're a big company. Is that really appropriate to do religion in it?' And I said, ‘Yeah, the number one reason somebody gets fired here is perjury. Thou should not lie. The number two reason is probably sexual harassment. Thou shalt not commit adultery. The third reason is there are bad actors in our company that have stolen. Thou shall not steel. And I know that there's a lot of my peers that are coveting other positions. If we were teaching the Scripture, that it applies to our daily life, that would solve most of our issues.'” McMANUS: “And what did he say?” SOUTH BEND, INDIANA DONOR: “He was silent.” 26 Worldview listeners gave $10,520 As you know, The Worldview is in the middle of our annual fundraising campaign through the end of June. While I originally indicated that our goal was $114,200, I was mistaken.  The goal is just 5% more than last year's goal of $80,000 which would bring the 2024 goal to $84,000. That would provide the resources necessary to fund our 6-member newscast team. Toward our readjusted mid-point goal, we needed to have raised a total of $42,000 by Saturday night, June 15th.  Providentially, 26 Worldview listeners stepped up to the plate. Our thanks to Kristina in Olympia, Washington who gave $20 as well as Jena in Templeton, California, Lavern in Rockingham, Virginia, Tim in Rosemount, Minnesota, and Robin in Wellington, Florida – each of whom gave $25. We appreciate Christina in Gibsonia, Pennsylvania and Bethany in Austin, Texas – both of whom gave $50. We're grateful to Richard in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, Eric in Denver, Colorado, Max in Cordova, Illinois, Amanda in Lacey, Washington, David in Boerne, Texas, and Susan in Hoyt, Kansas – each of whom gave $100. We thank God for Amanda in Savannah, Georgia who gave $200, Marlowe in Freetown, Prince Edward Island, Canada who gave $250, as well as Carlee in Keswick Ridge, New Brunswick, Canada and Shelly in Eagle, Idaho – both of whom pledged $25/month for 12 months for a gift of $300 each. We honor the sacrifice of Zephaniah in Lomax, Illinois who gave $500 as well as Benton in  Kingwood, Texas, Bill in Lees Summit, Missouri, and Donald in  Mason, Wisconsin – each of whom pledged $50/month for 12 months for a gift of $600 each. And we were touched by an anonymous donor in Bardstown, Kentucky who gave $750, Shane in Columbia City, Indiana, Rick and Shannan in Alexandria, Minnesota, and Curtis in Raleigh, North Carolina – each of whom pledged $100 per month for 12 months for a gift of $1,200 each as well as an anonymous donor in South Bend, Indiana who gave $2,000. Those 26 donors gave $10,520.  Ready for our new grand total? Drum roll please. (sound effect of drum roll) $39,155 (audience cheering) That means we came within $2,845 of reaching our readjusted midpoint goal.  Can you help us close the gap? We just need one person to pledge $100 per month for 12 months, 2 people to pledge $50 per month for 12 months, 1 person to pledge $25/month for 12 months, and 1 person to give a one-time gift of $145 to close the gap. Will you step up to the plate? Please go to TheWorldview.com, click on “Give,” select the dollar amount you'd like to donate, and click on the recurring monthly tab if that's your wish. Let's see what the Lord will do through you! Close And that's The Worldview on this Monday, June 17th, in the year of our Lord 2024. Subscribe by iTunes or email to our unique Christian newscast at www.TheWorldview.com. Or get the Generations app through Google Play or The App Store. I'm Adam McManus (Adam@TheWorldview.com). Seize the day for Jesus Christ.

In this video I discuss the recent dramatic disparity between the 2022 Uniform Crime Report and the National Crime Victimization Survey from the same year.Website: https://www.actualjusticewarrior.com/https://linktr.ee/ActualJusticeOdysee: https://odysee.com/@actualjusticewarr...Rumble: https://rumble.com/ActualJusticeWarriorInstagram NEW: https://www.instagram.com/actualjustice/Twitch: https://www.twitch.tv/actualjusticewa...Utreon: https://utreon.com/c/ActualJusticeWar...2nd Channel: https://www.youtube.com/ajw2dreamscom...TeeSpring Store: https://teespring.com/stores/actualju...New Store: https://actualjusticewarrior.myspread...Gettr: https://gettr.com/user/iamsean90Parler: https://parler.com/profile/Actualjust...https://www.minds.com/actualjusticewa...Support me on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/SeanFitzgeraldPaypal: https://www.paypal.me/Iamsean90Venmo: https://venmo.com/iamsean90Support me on Subscribe Star: https://www.subscribestar.com/seanfit...Gab: https://gab.com/Iamsean90Twitter https://twitter.com/iamsean90 Backup Twitter https://twitter.com/AJWSeanBitchute: https://www.bitchute.com/actualjustic...Discord: https://discord.gg/c7PGFFp3rd: https://www.youtube.com/user/DudeMonk...Get Storable Food: https://www.preparewithajw.comGet Pocketnet: https://pocketnet.app/actualjusticewa...Podcast Links:Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1o0q86A...Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast...Google Podcast: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0...Sources:Article On NCVS & UCR: https://counciloncj.org/did-violent-c...Marshall Project Report On UCR Lacking Reliability: https://www.themarshallproject.org/20...Hom Data Used: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries...My Response To Serfs: https://youtu.be/qdFGZmEGYHEMy Response To Culture War Episode: https://youtu.be/06zk2JzUQJ0Sam Seder Debate Full: https://youtu.be/v_-wUiVtKVE?si=5Hm88...#Crime #CrimeData #IamSean90FAIR USE NOTICEThis video may contain copyrighted material; the use of which has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available for the purposes of criticism, comment, review and news reporting which constitute the 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. Not withstanding the provisions of sections 106 and 106A, the fair use of a copyrighted work for purposes such as criticism, comment, review and news reporting is not an infringement of copyright.

Sanctuary jurisdictions are states or localities that obstruct the enforcement of immigration laws and shield criminals from federal authorities. And Washington sends millions in funding to them anyway.On this episode of Parsing Immigration Policy, host and Executive Director of the Center for Immigration Studies Mark Krikorian is joined by the Center's Director of Policy Studies Jessica Vaughan to discuss a new report that details how much money the federal government has given to sanctuary jurisdictions. Vaughan explains, “The Department of Justice has a number of law enforcement-related funding programs that give money for various purposes to local and state police, and a very large share of that money … goes to jurisdictions that are actively subverting the enforcement of the immigration laws by the federal government, the same federal government that's giving them money.”The report uses publicly available information to quantify the amount of money that has gone to these jurisdictions that actively obstruct the legitimate activities of ICE, at the expense of law-abiding members of their communities. Vaughan also explains how Congress can hold these jurisdictions accountable and discourage sanctuary policies.In his closing commentary, Mark Krikorian highlights the Biden administration's recent announcement of its “Family Reunification Parole Program” for certain aliens in Colombia, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras, which would allow nationals from these countries to skip the line to enter the country ahead of all other green card-eligible aliens.HostMark Krikorian is the Executive Director of the Center for Immigration Studies.GuestJessica Vaughan is the Director of Policy Studies at the Center for Immigration Studies.RelatedStill Subsidizing Sanctuaries: DOJ sends millions to jurisdictions that undermine federal law and public safetyMap: Sanctuary Cities, Counties, and StatesThis is the Hometown of San Francisco's Drug DealersAre Immigrants Less Willing to Report Crime? Data from the National Crime Victimization Survey says “No.”DHS Creates Yet Another Parole Program for Aliens to Cut in LineFollowFollow Parsing Immigration Policy on YouTube, Ricochet, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts.Intro MontageVoices in the opening montage:Sen. Barack Obama at a 2005 press conference.Sen. John McCain in a 2010 election ad.President Lyndon Johnson, upon signing the 1965 Immigration Act.Booker T. Washington, reading in 1908 from his 1895 Atlanta Exposition speech.Laraine Newman as a "Conehead" on SNL in 1977.Hillary Clinton in a 2003 radio interview.Cesar Chavez in a 1974 interview.House Speaker Nancy Pelosi speaking to reporters in 2019.Prof. George Borjas in a 2016 C-SPAN appearance.Sen. Jeff Sessions in 2008 comments on the Senate floor.Charlton Heston in "Planet of the Apes".

Episode 59: Controlling CrimeGuest: Riley Reber and Malia MossIn this episode, Dewhitt interviews two more of his CJS 2023 spring semester students, Riley Reber and Malia Moss. Riley is a Normal West Community High School graduate and Malia is a Bloomington High School graduate. Dewhitt, Malia and Riley discuss the following: Their career goalsControlling crimeUniform Crime ReportNIBRSNational Crime Victimization Survey4th Amendment5th Amendment6th AmendmentMemphis Police DepartmentTyre Nichols KillingPolice TrainingGeorge Floyd ActPolice killings of black men and womenWhat can be done to keep police from killing black men and womenCan legislation change the trajectory of police killings of black peopleGeneral solutions to controlling crimeIncreasing minimum wageLoan forgivenessLegalization of marijuana at the federal levelFree community collegeVoting rights  Black Lives MatterWhite SupremacyWhat they'd like to see the Biden administration accomplishYou can listen to the JFA Podcast Show wherever you get your podcast or by clicking on one of the links below.https://dlbspodcast.buzzsprout.com   https://blog.feedspot.com/social_justice_podcasts/ https://peculiarbooks.org  Also if you are interested in exercise and being healthy check out the Top 20 Triathlon Podcasts.https://blog.feedspot.com/triathlon_podcasts/ 

Hour 3: GOP candidate for Missouri State Senate George Hruza shares his story of escaping to America and his passion for doing what is right. Then, Jeffery Anderson, President of the American Main Street Initiative shares the newly released numbers from National Crime Victimization Survey which found that violent crime is rising drastically in urban areas. Later, Mark Reardon Brings you the Audio Cut of the Day. 

TAFT HIGH SCHOOL - BULLYING  Let's talk about bullying - recent crime statistics in the U.S. National Crime Victimization Survey done by the American National Center for Education and the U.S. Bureau of Justice, indicated 22% of students said they had experienced bullying. And then layer on this statistic, although there's 22%, who said they experienced bullying, they believe only 20% of bullying is reported.  Which means most kids experience bullying in some way or another. This episode explores the idea that sometimes bullying is used as an excuse....... and it's never an excuse for shooting. We discuss the case of Taft High School, a shooting that happened close to a month after the Sandy Hook Massacre but with very different outcomes. Message us on instagram : @conmunitypodcast  @stopthekillingstories WANT TO SUPPORT US: Patreon.com/stopthekilling  And for all things Katherine Schweit including where you can purchase her book STOP THE KILLING: How to end the mass shooting crisis head to: www.katherineschweit.com This is a CONmunity Podcast Production on the Killer Podcasts Network RESOURCES Stop the Bleed training FBI  RUN, HIDE, FIGHT Check out our Zencastr offer here: zen.ai/stk Promo code: stk Supporting our sponsors supports the show Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In 2019 the National Crime Victimization Survey indicated that nationwide, about 22% of students age 12 to 18 experienced bullying on school property in a 12 month period. How can we tell if our kid is being bullied? What do we do if our kid is the bully? How and when do we talk to our kids about bullying? Kate struggled as a child with a medical condition called Hydrocephalus which made some of the typical activities of childhood challenging. Her parents' unwavering belief in their child built an inner resilience that led to a successful career and life despite her challenges.As a licensed, clinical psychologist, she has worked with major hospitals, schools, and hundreds of parents. Her international bestselling book Bounce is the ultimateguide to helping children build resilience and thrive in all areas of life. Kate's mission is to help parents bring out the best in their kids to create the leaders of our future.Website HEREOrder her Book HERE________________________________________________________________Did you love this episode? BUY ME A COFFEE for support!Find me on Instagram@balkanina@mamaknowspodcastFind me on TikTokBalkaninaSubscribe to my NewsletterPrivate Facebook Motherhood-Podcast CommunityMama Knows FBDisclaimer: This podcast does not provide any medical advice, it is for informational purposes only!

In this episode, I talk with Sarah Lindstrom Johnson - professor at Arizona State University and expert on prevention interventions for youth - about what we know about kids from national studies, like the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS), Monitoring the Future, and the School Crime Supplement to the National Crime Victimization Survey. If you want to follow along, links to data from those studies are at www.TalkingAboutKids.com.  We also answer a listener's question about the rise of cocaine use among teens.    

Die Gefängnispsychologin Susanne Preusker wird im Jahr 2009 Opfer einer brutalen Geiselnahme. Über diesen Fall sprechen Jazzy und Julia in dieser Folge. Sie besprechen, was was Forscher:innen über Gewaltprävention in Gefängnissen sagen und wie es bei Justizbeamt:innen zu einer sogenannten Mitgefühl-Müdigkeit kommen kann.Links zu den Quellen:TZ: https://www.tz.de/welt/susanne-preusker-ist-gestorben-zr-9622744.htmlSpiegel: https://www.spiegel.de/kultur/tv/sieben-stunden-mit-bibiana-beglau-drama-ueber-susanne-preusker-in-der-ard-a-1240100.htmlrbb24.de: https://www.rbb24.de/panorama/beitrag/2021/07/berlin-polizei-suizide-psychologie-psychosozialer-dienst-trauma.htmlAnnabelle.ch: https://www.annabelle.ch/leben/begegnung-mit-gefangnispsychologin-susanne-preusker-21590/Welt: https://www.welt.de/vermischtes/weltgeschehen/article13600589/Vergewaltigt-wie-eine-Psychologin-zum-Opfer-wurde.htmlStuttgarter Zeitung: https://www.stuttgarter-zeitung.de/inhalt.die-autorin-susanne-preusker-ist-tot-abschied-von-einer-starken-frau.f29cbf0a-fc62-4d9f-8ff0-4efdb66d3e23.htmlInterview Susanne Preusker mit dem ZDF 2013: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SAM8gvZXl1UZeit.de: https://www.zeit.de/gesellschaft/zeitgeschehen/2012-08/gefaengnis-gewalt-haeftling?utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2FInterview Susanne Preusker mit "Niederbayern TV Deggendorf" 2011: https://deggendorf.niederbayerntv.de/mediathek/tag/susanne-preusker/Studien:Studie des Kriminologischen Forschungsinstituts Niedersachen, 2012, "Anzahl von körperlichen Übergriffen an Häftlingen" National Crime Victimization Survey, das Bureau of Justice Statistics, "Gewalttaten gegenüber Justizvollzugsbeamten" Studie von David Cooke, "Strategien zur Gewaltprävention und Ansatz: PRISM - Promoting Risk Interventions by Situational Management" Studie von Nina Fusco, 2021 Juristische Mitarbeit:Strafverteidigerin Alexandra BraunHast du Suizid-Gedanken? Die Telefon-Seelsorge ist 24 Stunden am Tag erreichbar und kann dir helfen: 0800 111 0 111Unsere allgemeinen Datenschutzrichtlinien finden Sie unter https://art19.com/privacy. Die Datenschutzrichtlinien für Kalifornien sind unter https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info abrufbar.

One of the most frequently cited justifications for sanctuary policies is the claim that immigrants are less willing to report victimization to authorities. A report was released by the Center for Immigration Studies casts doubt on this claim, using the latest data from the National Crime Victimization Survey. Mark Krikorian, the Center's executive director and host of Parsing Immigration Policy... Source

Summary One of the most frequently cited justifications for sanctuary policies is the claim that immigrants are less willing to report victimization to authorities. A report was released by the Center for Immigration Studies casts doubt on this claim, using the latest data from the National Crime Victimization Survey. Mark Krikorian, the Center's executive director […]

Sexual violence in Chicago is a significantly under-covered crime in Chicago and is only really covered if the media can exploit and sensationalize the event. Today we chat with Executive Director Erin Walton and Director of Programs and Policy Sarah Layden from Resilience. Our discussion covers defining what exactly is sexual violence, how often it occurs, and the Chicago/Cook County justice system's response. Despite how the Chicago media covers these crimes most sexual violence perpetrators are known to the survivor. This reality is proven both in what advocates from agencies like resilience see everyday in their work supporting survivors and national level survey research like the National Crime Victimization Survey. While the gap has slightly narrowed in recent years for many years the gap between known and unknown offenders was 9-1. In our 2013 study on a year of domestic violence and sexual assault coverage in the Chicago Tribune and Sun-Times we learned that less than 4% of the articles on sexual assault were about assaults at the hands of known offenders. This is obviously completely opposite of how they occur in Chicago. The issue with the problematic media coverage is that if the only types of sexual violence that is represented in the news is ultra violence stranger assaults this will lead to the false belief that less violent assaults committed by known offenders is not really a crime. This is why it is important for the Chicago media to responsibly cover the range of sexual assault in Chicago. The important work done on the streets and in the hospitals every day by advocates for survivors is definitely an ignored part of our justice system. There are far too many facets of the justice system that traditional crime reporters only call on when they find out about an incident that can be exploited and sensationalized for clicks. This is why we are so happy that Erin and Sarah decided to sit down with us for this vital discussion.

7 years ago, I shut down my social media accounts for an entire year and prioritized my spiritual journey and mental health. Social media and the internet has a light and a shadow side of it's own. For me, it serves as a vehicle for human connection, business growth and self-expression. However, it took trial and error to eventually get to a place where I could use it more responsibly. Today I reflect on that time and how it was one of the best decisions I ever made. We talk about the reality of social media addiction and I share 6 practical tools that helped me and my students to use social media to support their life, business and relationships ~ not the other way around. In this episode, we talk about: -what I love about social media and how it can be life changing -the pattern of social media addiction and how I broke it -reality vs. virtual reality -the danger of likes, comments and blue check marks -how I shut down social media for an entire year and found new beginnings -the change that led to my spiritual awakening -is there a link between social media and depression? -using social media with more responsibility -how to create more boundaries around technology -finding a balance within social media so it does not consume your life -6 simple practices to prioritize mental health + technology   Quote from the Show: "I can detach myself from what my mind is saying (about likes and goals) and I can listen to my heart, I can listen to my truth, I can listen to my own inner wisdom. I can allow that to be my guidance and my compass." If you are currently navigating through mental health dis-ease, please don't be afraid to ask for help. Reach out to a holistic practitioner or medical practitioner you trust to seek support.   Did this episode spark a thought or question for you? Text Sandy 1-518-217-4546   References: Alone Together by Sherry Turkle - https://www.amazon.com/Alone-Together-Expect-Technology-Other/dp/0465031463 Sources: NCBI – Association between Social Media Use and Depression among U.S. Young Adults  Pew Research Center – About a quarter of U.S. adults say they are ‘almost constantly’ online Digital Trends – Americans spend an alarming amount of time checking social media on their phones NCBI – Internet Addiction: A Brief Summary of Research and Practice U.S. Department of Education – Student Reports of Bullying and Cyber-Bullying: Results From the 2011 School Crime Supplement to the National Crime Victimization Survey    

What is Bullying? Let's Psyconnect addresses this question, reviews some statistics pertaining to it, and talks about the mental health outcomes of bullying. Stay psyconnected with us on: Instagram Visit our website: www.letspsyconnect.com Support us on Anchor or become a Patron and enjoy exclusive benefits (e.g. get invited to Patron-only events) Get Let's Psyconnect Merch (T-shirts available) ______________________________________________________ References: National Center for Health Statistics, & Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (2013). National Health Interview Survey [Data set]. Retrieved from http://www.cdc.gov/asthma/nhis/2013/table1-1.htm Dantchev, S., & Wolke, D. (2019). Trouble in the nest: Antecedents of sibling bullying victimization and perpetration. Developmental Psychology, 55(5), 1059-1071. https://doi.org/10.1037/dev0000700 National center for educational statistics. (2019). Student Reports of Bullying: Results From the 2017 School Crime Supplement to the National Crime Victimization Survey. National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), a part of the U.S. Department of Education. https://nces.ed.gov/pubs2019/2019054.pdf Östberg, V., Modin, B., & Låftman, S. B. (2017). Exposure to school bullying and psychological health in young adulthood: A prospective 10-Year follow-up study. Journal of School Violence, 17(2), 194-209. https://doi.org/10.1080/15388220.2017.1296770 _______________________________________________________ Disclaimer: Let's Psyconnect Podcast and its associated social media platforms are used for informational and educational purposes and should not be considered therapy or any form of treatment, diagnosis, and is not intended to substitute professional psychological, psychiatric or medical advice. Additionally, we do not recommend or endorse any specific tests, physicians, products, procedures, opinions, or other information that may be mentioned on this Podcast or other platforms used to promote it. --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/letspsyconnect/support

In this episode of our BryghtCast edition of the Managing Uncertainty Podcast for the week of September 30th, 2019,  Bryghtpath Principal & CEO Bryan Strawser and Consultant Bray Wheeler take a look at three current risks and upcoming events: South China Morning Post:  As it happened - Hong Kong protester shot in chest, six live rounds fired on National Day. New York Times: In Pictures - China's National Day Parade Features Pomp and Artillery South China Morning Post: China's National Day parade, as it happened FBI: 2018 Crime Statistics Released FBI: Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program //static.leadpages.net/leadboxes/current/embed.js Episode Transcript Bryan Strawser: Hello, and welcome to the Managing Uncertainty Podcast. This is Bryan Strawser, principal and CEO at Bryghtpath. Bray Wheeler: This is Bray Wheeler, consultant at Bryghtpath. Bryan Strawser: This is our BryghtCast edition for the week of September 30th, 2019 where we take apart two or three events, stories, announcements, and talk about what it means for companies and nonprofit organizations in the private sector. Bray, what do we got today? Bray Wheeler: We have today just a couple of items today, everybody's favorite topic that we've been talking about all probably be for quite some time, Hong Kong. What is new? We've avoided talking about this just a little bit to avoid fatigue and the fact that the situation remains as is until over the last few days, particularly Monday here this week where Hong Kong police for the first time in all these months of protests actually fired a live round or more at protesters, but actually hit a protester with the live round. Bray Wheeler: This is the first time that violent force has been used by Hong Kong police against the protesters. The protesters reignited some pretty heavy protest and different actions over the last few days, including setting fires, shutting down the subway, blocking traffic, kind of all of their MOs, but very much picked up the intensity of what they had been doing over the last couple of weeks anyway. The reports are that this police officer fell threatened, he was being attacked according to him and so ended up firing off shots. Bray Wheeler: In addition to that, Hong Kong police have also fired live rounds into the air over the past 24 to 48 hours, so more live ammunition being used, not necessarily directed at people, but definitely being discharged. That's all to say in the context. This is all happening in the context of China's National Day or the 70th anniversary of communist party rule. There are a big celebration and parade here on Tuesday this week in which all the pomp and circumstance that China does with these different national days. This being the 70th anniversary, it was a little bit bigger, unveiled some new weapons, but kind of the unique piece to Hong Kong was a couple of things. Bray Wheeler: One, Carrie Lam was an honored guest, which isn't out of the norm, however, was highlighted as kind of a guest. Then the president of China Xi Jinping actually made comments in his speech almost from the get-go around "no force can shake the status of our great motherland, no force can obstruct the advance of the Chinese people and Chinese nation." He also went on to say that they would maintain the lasting prosperity and stability of Hong Kong and Macau, so- Bryan Strawser: Specifically called them out. Bray Wheeler: Specifically called them out, so it was definitely left no mistake, as the New York Times reporter points out left, no mistake that Hong Kong is on the minds of Chinese leaders right now. Bryan Strawser: There's a couple of things to unpack here around all of this. I think the first is this appears to be an escalation on the part of the governments in Hong Kong. They arrested over a hundred protesters, I believe it was, during this weekend's protest. They shot at the one individual and wounded him, I believe. I don't know what... what was the size of the protest this weekend? I don't know that I caught that in the news, but how did this compare to some of the protests we'd seen previously? Bray Wheeler: I think in terms of the... so there were two simultaneous protests going on. I... trying to see if I can find the numbers right in front of me. The more violent actions I think are just within the norm of what they have been over the last couple of weeks, but their intensity of what they were doing increased, which was notable, but there was also a peaceful protest March in Hong Kong as well, kind of an anti-Chinese day parade, which was much better attended in terms of protest side, or protest size rather. Bray Wheeler: But I think it's all within the average norm of what we've seen. I don't think it's surged to the millions like it was at the height of it, but it was definitely enough to get attention of security forces as well as, kind of notable in terms of counter parade to China. Bryan Strawser: The second part of this was just the other part here to unpack I think is the 70th-anniversary celebration that kicked off today, October 1st as we're recording this. These are some pretty strong statements from the president, not just about Chinese dominance and expected Chinese growth as a great power in the years to come, but these specific commentaries around Macau and Hong Kong, Hong Kong in particular. I think it just goes back to the New York Times' take on this, that we're going to see the change in Hong Kong now. Maybe not at a more glacial pace as we were expecting for a long time, but a more aggressive and deliberate manner to bring Hong Kong more in line with Chinese norms. Is that your perception from this as well? Bray Wheeler: Yeah, and I think it was also pointed out in some of the opinion and commentary pieces, which I also agree with, maybe not as on the same timeline as it was suggested, but kind of Hong Kong's diminishing importance due to the trade war battles, skirmish, whatever you want to call it between the US and China. The fact that Hong Kong's importance is diminishing as a part of that right now coupled with these democratic protests. It was suggested that we could see a definitive change in Hong Kong eventually, and sooner rather than later just based on the fact that China feels like they can get away with a little bit more now that it's not as important, they will face less international pressure, there's less domestic pressure, there's more violence going on, kind of asserting their needs to get the situation under control. Bray Wheeler: It also flies, this was suggested in some of the reporting, around China National Day that the president of China has been working to kind of homogenize China rather than expanding on the diversity that China has touted a little bit for several decades as a part of what they're trying to accomplish, that they're actually going in the opposite direction, which is probably going to cause him more problems in the future, but there's that part of it too where they're trying to assert the one-China homogenous idea what's going on. Bray Wheeler: There's a lot of contexts. There's a lot of factors at play with Hong Kong right now that probably doesn't bode well for what we were used to as Hong Kong a year ago, two years ago, six months ago to what we're going to see in six months, a year from now, two years from now. I think it's potentially at a tipping point, and it certainly has continued to escalate. Bray Wheeler: For companies, we've been talking about this in different ways of do you have a BC plan, do you have an EVAC plan, are you thinking about how your operations work in Hong Kong, those kinds of things. I think if you haven't already, not to sound too alarmist here, but if you haven't already, now really is the time because as we've seen since the beginning of this, 115 days I think it is of protest activity, there's been no de-escalation of what has gone on. There have been no real signs of getting back to what was considered normal. It's only increasing now, and the fact that there are some violent tactics being used both by protestors and by security forces, it's probably going to continue. There's no way, kind of- Bryan Strawser: Right. Bray Wheeler: You can't put the lid back on that. Bryan Strawser: Can't put the toothpaste back in the tube. Bray Wheeler: Yes. Bryan Strawser: As we were talking to this morning in my office prior to recording the podcast, this is also probably the beginning of the time when companies need to think about is Hong Kong in the longterm where we want to operate? Is... For a lot of companies, Hong Kong is their base of operations for Asia. That's where their headquarters or regional headquarters is. That's where a lot of American expats, for example, base themselves. Same for the Commonwealth countries, Hong Kong, of course, being part of the United Kingdom for so long. Bryan Strawser: But a lot of these companies, many of these companies are starting to consider is Hong Kong the place we want to be 20 years from now if we're going to see more movement towards Hong Kong looking more like the rest of China? Do we stay there, or do we decamp to another westernized country that plays by a western ruleset here, and for a lot of countries, that Singapore where, again, we have a former British, mostly British base of operations that's an independent city-country, city-state, now and operates in that way and typically follows western norms, leaving out the caning and things like that that goes on. Bryan Strawser: But this isn't a today thing, but as you pointed out if you haven't already looked at your BC plans now, it's really the last chance we're going to get to take a solid look at this. It's also I think the beginning of the time in which you need to evaluate is Hong Kong where you want to be in the longterm or is there another location that is going to be better suited for you 5, 7, 10 years down the road? Bray Wheeler: Yeah, and we don't get a cut from Singapore for saying it. I think all preference would be to be able to have those of basis of, or entry points into Asia both through Hong Kong, through Singapore, through other locations in that region, but the viability of Hong Kong right now going forward as of now, if the current trajectory stays in place- Bryan Strawser: Yeah, the longterm thought process, where does it take us? Bray Wheeler: ... you have to really look, you have to really look at that. Bryan Strawser: Back in... when was the handover, in 1997? Bray Wheeler: Yes. Bryan Strawser: Right? I was 23 in 1997. I remember watching this, and I had no clue what this would mean in the longterm, but here we are almost 22 years, we're 22 years past the handover, or close to. I think that it's the end of the year is the anniversary, and you're starting to see those first big steps towards significant change there. Definitely, one that you need to keep an eye on, and our recommendations are to look at your BC planning and start to think longterm. Is this where you want to be? Bray Wheeler: EVAC plans as well, travel itineraries- Bryan Strawser: If you need to get out of there quickly. Bray Wheeler: ... just kind of taking a holistic look and assuming that, "Hey, this gets shut down, this goes martial law, this goes in a direction where we're kind of isolated," what is it that you're going to need to do in order to keep your people safe, continue your operations, things like that, so holistic look right now is, as you mentioned, kind of your last opportunity while it's still relatively... there's some stability left. Now is the time. Bryan Strawser: Our last story for this episode is from the New York Times, but the release is really the FBI releasing the 2018 Uniform Crime Reporter, UCR, which was released yesterday, Monday, September 30th. The big headline here is that violent crime in the United States including homicides declined in 2018 for the second straight year according to FBI data that was released on Monday. Overall, the nation's crime rate dropped by 6.5%, which was led by us 6.9% decline in the property crime rate that 16 years in a row in which property crime dropped. The homicide rate dropped by 6%, primarily driven by significant declines and homicides in both Baltimore and Chicago. On the other side of the equation, rape, sexual assault, as the FBI calls it, and aggravated sexual assault climbed in 2018. Bray Wheeler: Now, they're suggesting it's a... they're wondering if that's a little bit as a result of the Me Too Movement where there's been greater reporting, greater documentation of those crimes, excuse me, that that's a part of the reason that that kicks in. There's also been a lot of work around that particular crime type in terms of the crime reports over the last 10 to 15 years, better documentation of that because it's a little bit inconsistent in terms of how states and counties report those in, so I think there's been an improvement on defining and accounting for those as well. Bryan Strawser: The New York Times says that the number of rapes reported in 2018 increased by 2.7%, and it was the only category of violent crime that rose last year, according to the Uniform Crime Report. Criminologists said that it was not clear whether more sexual assaults were occurring or whether more people were reporting assaults amid the Me Too Movement. The FBI also complicates the results because they revised the way they classified rape to include both males as victims and expanding the definition of rape to include types of attacks that were not previously counted. Bryan Strawser: By the way, those guidelines were changed in 2013, and since those guidelines have changed, the number of reported rapes to law enforcement has grown more than 18%. We should point out the Uniform Crime Report, although this is usually the crime stats that folks use, it only includes crimes that have been reported to law enforcement. Bray Wheeler: Correct. Bryan Strawser: There's another survey that's conducted by the Department of Justice called the National Crime Victimization Survey, which is also done every year, and that is a sampling of individuals to determine if they have been victims of crime, and it reports that data. Those numbers are always higher because some folks are involved, or I'm sorry, some folks who are victims of crime, and they never report it to law enforcement, but you can look at the increases between the two and draw some correlation. Bryan Strawser: For companies, some ways that you can use this data, it can be a key source of objectable, objectable, objective data that you can use in policy discussions. You can use it as a source of data to assess your security posture and actions that you may want to take or not take. We consider this of the key annual reports to read and understand for the security profession, particularly looking at actions around your major site locations, cities, states, et cetera, counties. Bray Wheeler: Yeah. It's a good reference document. It's kind of a good, I want to say the source of truth because to your point, it's only reported, and it's only those cities and counties and law enforcement entities that report in. Not all do or do in the same way, but it really is a good bellwether, especially as you're looking across the nation. If you operate in different cities and different locations, understanding what the trends are there to make sure that your posture's, depending on your industry, are appropriate to what's happening in those areas and where you should add resources or potentially subtract. Now, of course, this data is from 2018, so it's almost a year old, which is always the case because they take a lot of time to scrub through it, but it definitely the, in terms of the trends and things that they see, you can take a look at those and use those as you're planning out your security posture. Bryan Strawser: I was always like to see this data. I mean, I'm a data guy by nature. I like things to be... I like to have things proven to me using data. But I think of the things that always helps me with as a security professional is, although I think the world is more uncertain and riskier today than it has ever been in my lifetime, and it never, to me, the world never really gets safer, I do think that most people in the United States, in particular, think that there's this enormous amount of violent crime and homicide. Bryan Strawser: In fact, we're at a near 50-year low of violent crime and homicide rate in this country. It's down by more than half from the 1990s when I was coming out of high school on my own into a college, so I like to see the data, but most folks are totally shocked by that when they see a graph of this and how far it's dropped, and particularly when we look at news coming out of Baltimore in Chicago and Washington, D.C., which I will note that D.C. is way up 2018 into 2019. Bray Wheeler: D.C. and Philadelphia- Bryan Strawser: Philadelphia. Bray Wheeler: ... I think were the two high risers. Bryan Strawser: Washington, D.C. was up 36% for homicide rates, and Philadelphia was up 10%. I should point out here that the important data because we're looking at crime data, although they do report whole numbers, the important data is the crime rates because you need to control crime, you need to control crime data by population. A rise in population doesn't necessarily mean an increase in crime. Bray Wheeler: Well, and I think to your point, I think it's an important point to reiterate that you made in terms of it's a good reality check to what we're seeing, how we're feeling, how we're perceiving things, to be able to go back and just gut-check ourselves against some of the data to go, "Okay, let's put this in the appropriate context." It's a focus in on the areas that we are seeing increases in, but also understanding in totality what's going on to make sure that we're not making big assumptions, we're able to explain and weigh decisions in terms of security strategy or other operational decisions to leadership who may read this in the paper going, "What are you talking about? Crime's down. Why are we investing in that?" Well, here's why, and understand that this is the context, so yes, you are correct. It's down nationwide; however, in Washington, D.C.- Bryan Strawser: It's up. Bray Wheeler: ... it's up, and we need to account for that, and we're seeing this impact here. Bryan Strawser: We're experiencing this locally right now here in the Twin Cities. Minneapolis has had an increase in violent crime, particularly homicide involving firearms this year, but St. Paul is, on the other side of the Mississippi River here, is having a huge spike. They've got some gang conflict that's driving the bulk of this, and it's not been a good summer for the city of St. Paul in this area. But this kind of data helps kind of see that in context and put it in reality over time. There was a spike in '16, '17, and '18. We saw some uptick in violent crime, and now we're seeing it come back down. Bray Wheeler: Yeah, I think it was 2015, 2016. There was definitely a spike, and so that's part of it too is to understand that we'll go through these ebbs and flows of a lot of increase, and then some decrease to figure out where at in the norm. Although it's a 6% decrease, it's obviously an improvement, but compared, it's still dropping those increases from 2015, 2016 potentially. It's all good context. It's good information. It's kind of vetted. Like I said, they take months and months to scrub this and organize it and make sure that they feel confident with the data that they have before releasing it and making it official because a lot of law enforcement and other agencies use this to account for budgetary things and their strategies as well, so they want to make sure it's accurate. Bryan Strawser: You can find the... we'll put the link to the FBI data in the show notes, but you can also find it and other contexts that fbi.gov. They've got some court reporting tools you can use to slice and dice and extract this data of the way that you want. That's it for this edition of the Managing Uncertainty Podcast. We'll be back with a new episode next week.

RESEARCH, GOEGRAPHY AND IPV Research is important, but so is perfecting research. Especially in the areas of Intimate Partner Violence. We usually see geographic differences (if addressed at all) as reflecting urban, suburban and rural areas. But two IPV researchers started seeing some problems with that and decided to get to the bottom of it. They sifted through the National Crime Victimization Survey data to better understand how settlement types impacts the type of violence against women. What they found is that using three geographic designations only gives a very imperfect reflection of violence against women. Kathryn DuBois is an Associate Professor at Washington State University Vancouver.  Beginning with research toward a Ph.D. in Criminology from Simon Fraser University on alcohol and violence among the Inuit of the eastern Canadian arctic, and has developed expertise in several areas including victimology, violence against women, rural violence, and public health approaches to alcohol regulation.  Callie Marie Rennison earned her Ph.D. in 1997 in political science from the University of Houston, University Park, where she also received a B.S. in psychology, M.A. in sociology, and M.A. in political science. In 2016, she was awarded the Bonnie S. Fisher Victimology Career Award from the Division of Victimology in the American Society of Criminology. She has also served on a National Academies Committee examining domestic sex trafficking of minors in the United States and was a Senior Researcher at the Department of Justice's Bureau of Justice Statistics. Join us as Rennison and DuBois share the findings from their research and how those findings can change our understanding of violence against women.  

If we've ever had a conversation, or if you've ever heard me have a conversation, you may notice that I will not accept as an argument a "study" you cited. I've even been made fun of for saying that I don't trust "stats." (Yes I'm using scare quotes on purpose).The reason for this is simple. Stat and studies and research papers may be well done. Just as easily they may be inaccurate, false, misleading and untruthful. Creating a truthful and rigorous scientific study is complex and difficult. Darwin dedicated his entire life to not only proving his own theory but DISPROVING his own theory. He wanted to make sure he was correct. Throwing out a "study" that "proves" your case is inappropriate and destructive.In this podcast (originally a video on my youtube channel) I dig into a particularly pernicious study done by the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) about rape and sexual assault. Their study, the National Crime Victimization Survey is quoted and used as evidence for such claims that the vast majority (63% or more) of women do not report rapes and that only 2-10% of rape accusations are false.Find out what this source actually says and how to be cautious of accepting magic words like "studies," "Stats," or even "science."Here are the urls for all the websites that I refer to in this episode. It may be useful to go to my youtube page and watch the video. There I show the articles as well as talk about them. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCdmjldJNAsOzI50kfzOHyLADr. Ben Bayer, The Sniff Test:https://medium.com/@benbayer_62236/the-sniff-test-cb5727f319a6Washington post article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/false-accusations-of-rape-which-are-rare-should-not-be-the-priority/2018/10/05/969910ce-c820-11e8-9c0f-2ffaf6d422aa_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.3e03c579b678NSVRC overview: https://www.nsvrc.org/sites/default/files/Publications_NSVRC_Overview_False-Reporting.pdfBJS Review:https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/rsarp00.pdfThe Cut Article: https://www.thecut.com/article/false-rape-accusations.htmlNCVS Report 2015 https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/cv15.pdfNCRVS About page: https://www.nsvrc.org/about/national-sexual-violence-resource-centerNational Academies report https://www.nap.edu/read/18605/chapter/11

If we've ever had a conversation, or if you've ever heard me have a conversation, you may notice that I will not accept as an argument a "study" you cited. I've even been made fun of for saying that I don't trust "stats." (Yes I'm using scare quotes on purpose).The reason for this is simple. Stat and studies and research papers may be well done. Just as easily they may be inaccurate, false, misleading and untruthful. Creating a truthful and rigorous scientific study is complex and difficult. Darwin dedicated his entire life to not only proving his own theory but DISPROVING his own theory. He wanted to make sure he was correct. Throwing out a "study" that "proves" your case is inappropriate and destructive.In this podcast (originally a video on my youtube channel) I dig into a particularly pernicious study done by the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) about rape and sexual assault. Their study, the National Crime Victimization Survey is quoted and used as evidence for such claims that the vast majority (63% or more) of women do not report rapes and that only 2-10% of rape accusations are false.Find out what this source actually says and how to be cautious of accepting magic words like "studies," "Stats," or even "science."Here are the urls for all the websites that I refer to in this episode. It may be useful to go to my youtube page and watch the video. There I show the articles as well as talk about them. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCdmjldJNAsOzI50kfzOHyLADr. Ben Bayer, The Sniff Test:https://medium.com/@benbayer_62236/the-sniff-test-cb5727f319a6Washington post article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/false-accusations-of-rape-which-are-rare-should-not-be-the-priority/2018/10/05/969910ce-c820-11e8-9c0f-2ffaf6d422aa_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.3e03c579b678NSVRC overview: https://www.nsvrc.org/sites/default/files/Publications_NSVRC_Overview_False-Reporting.pdfBJS Review:https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/rsarp00.pdfThe Cut Article: https://www.thecut.com/article/false-rape-accusations.htmlNCVS Report 2015 https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/cv15.pdfNCRVS About page: https://www.nsvrc.org/about/national-sexual-violence-resource-centerNational Academies report https://www.nap.edu/read/18605/chapter/11

Com o avanço no Congresso Nacional do projeto de lei que revoga o Estatuto do Desarmamento em vigor desde 2003, tornando menos rígidas as regras para a aquisição de armas de fogo, uma guerra de números conflitantes municia quem defende e quem é contrario à alteração da lei. Mas o debate não é exclusividade da militância de ambos os lados. A relação direta entre venda de armas e aumento da criminalidade não é consenso entre pesquisadores de diferentes países, incluindo os Estados Unidos, referência para quem quer flexibilizar a regulamentação. Quem apoia o PL 3722 diz que os assassinatos por arma de fogo cresceram desde a entrada em vigor do Estatuto – de fato, 2012, último ano de referência, registrou um recorde de 42 mil assassinatos com armas no país. Complementa o argumento dos armamentistas o fato de que os Estados com o maior número de armas registradas – São Paulo e Rio Grande do Sul – não estão entre os de maior criminalidade, o que demonstraria não haver relação direta entre armas legais e crimes. Para os que se opõem à modificação da lei atual, a relação é direta, mas em termos relativos. O Mapa da Violência 2015 mostra que, entre 1993 e 2003 – os 10 anos anteriores à vigência do Estatuto do Desarmamento –, os homicídios com arma de fogo cresceram 7,8% ao ano, até atingir 36 mil mortes. A progressão neste mesmo ritmo deveria levar a 71 mil vítimas fatais em 2012, o que não se confirmou. Os dados de 2012 apontam que 31 mil vidas teriam sido poupadas – 160 mil desde o início da nova lei. O matemático da Universidade da Califórnia Irvine Dominik Wodarz, em seu estudo Dependence of the Firearm-Related Homicide Rate on Gun Availability, criou uma fórmula matemática para tentar resolver a questão. “Nós inserimos os dados neste modelo matemático e descobrimos que, naquelas circunstâncias, seria melhor ter um controle estrito de armas, pois isso levaria a um número menor de assassinatos por armas de fogo”, afirmou Wodarz à RFI Brasil. Fórmula O matemático alerta, no entanto, que o estudo não é conclusivo porque os dados sobre a criminalidade ainda são frágeis. A conclusão preliminar foi baseada em estatísticas da Filadélfia. “Descobrimos que alguém carregando uma arma tem mais probabilidade de ser morto do que alguém não carregando. Basicamente porque, se você tem uma arma, você entra na briga ao invés de fugir. Ao entrar na briga, aumenta a probabilidade de ser atingido”, explica o Wodarz. Já outro pesquisador americano, o presidente do Crime Prevention Research Center, John R. Lott Jr., acredita que é possível tirar conclusões a partir dos dados disponíveis hoje nos Estados Unidos. E elas são bem diferentes: “Muitos países tentaram banir as armas e, todas as vezes que isso aconteceu, o número de assassinatos aumentou. Seja em Estados americanos, na Irlanda ou mesmo em ilhas, como a Jamaica ou Reino Unido. É claro que o Brasil não baniu as armas, mas a lógica é a mesma”, afirma o pesquisador à RFI Brasil. John R. Lott Jr. é autor do livro More Guns, Less Crime (“Mais Armas, Menos Crimes”), que analisou dados sobre a criminalidade nos Estados Unidos ao longo de 29 anos, entre 1977 e 2005. Segundo Lott, as estatísticas fornecidas pelo National Crime Victimization Survey do governo americano permitem estabelecer com riqueza de detalhes as reações e as consequências dos atos criminais. “O que os dados nos mostram é que, de longe, a reação mais segura a se ter diante de um crime é usar uma arma. Por exemplo, uma mulher que não reage tem 2,5 vezes mais probabilidade de sofrer uma agressão grave do que uma que tiver uma arma.” Para o pesquisador, saber que poderá atacar alguém armado tem efeito intimidatório sobre os criminosos. Europa A atual legislação restritiva brasileira tem entusiastas na Europa, continente onde as leis também são mais duras quanto ao porte de armas. É o caso de Sarah Parker, pesquisadora do Small Arms Survey, uma organização suíça que produz e analisa dados sobre armas no mundo. “O Brasil tem políticas muito boas que começaram em 2003. Mas isso é apenas o que está no papel." O problema, segundo a pesquisadora, seria a proliferação de armas ilícitas. Embora considere o Estatuto do Desarmamento "progressista", Parker afirma que pleitear o uso de armas de fogo “é uma reação comum das pessoas para se defenderem quando o governo e as instituições do Estado não estão em condições de proteger os cidadãos”. Ela lembra que, em muitos países do mundo, como a Austrália, a defesa pessoal não é considerada um motivo legítimo para se adquirir uma arma. “No Brasil, claramente há um movimento forte para que as pessoas possam ter armas para legítima defesa. Acho que isso diz muito sobre a sensação de segurança que o Estado está oferecendo.”