Brussels Sprouts

In recent weeks, Turkey has been grabbing the headlines with a series of major moves. Just a few days ago, Turkish President Erdogan provoked anxiety in the U.S. and Europe by threatening to strike Athens with ballistic missiles, raising tensions with Greece. Meanwhile, Erdogan and Russian President Putin are reportedly discussing making Turkey a regional hub for Russian natural gas headed to Europe. All of this is occurring against the backdrop of Turkey's increasingly contentious position within NATO, including its delays in approving membership bids by Finland and Sweden. How might these developments in Turkish foreign policy impact European security and transatlantic relations? Asli Aydintasbas and Steven Cook join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss Turkey's role on the international stage. -Asli Aydintasbas is a visiting fellow in the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution. Prior to joining the foreign policy community, she had a long career in journalism, during which she focused on Turkey, its domestic evolution, and foreign policy in an age of regional reshuffling and geopolitical competition. -Steven Cook is the Eni Enrico Mattei senior fellow for Middle East and Africa studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. He is an expert on Arab and Turkish politics as well as U.S.-Middle East policy.

What were the key outcomes from the third meeting of the Trade and Technology Council? Tyson Barker and Frances Burwell join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Carisa Nietsche to discuss their top takeaways and what to look out for in the months ahead. Tyson Barker is the head of Technology and Global Affairs at the German Council on Foreign Relations. He previously worked at Aspen Germany where, as deputy executive director and fellow, he was responsible for the institute's digital and transatlantic programs. Frances G. Burwell is a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council and a senior director at McLarty Associates. Her work focuses on the European Union and US-EU relations as well as a range of transatlantic economic, political, and defense issues.

Earlier this week, French President Emmanuel Macron arrived in Washington for the first state visit of the Biden administration. This visit comes on the heels of many months of strong transatlantic cooperation in response to Russia's war against Ukraine. More recently, however, there have been signs of new strains on the transatlantic relationship, in particular with respect to trade issues. There have also been accusations that the United States is attempting to profit from the energy crisis by selling LNG at high prices to Europe. How might these ongoing tensions affect transatlantic cooperation going forward? Liana Fix, Mathieu Droin, and David Kleimann join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss how Paris, Berlin, and Brussels view the status of transatlantic relations. ▪ Liana Fix is a fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations. She is a historian and political scientist, with expertise in German and European foreign and security policy, European security, transatlantic relations, Russia, and Eastern Europe. ▪ Mathieu Droin is a visiting fellow in the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, where he focuses on transatlantic European security and defense. Prior to joining CSIS, Mathieu served as deputy head of the strategic affairs unit at the French Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs. ▪ David Kleimann is a visiting fellow at Bruegel, where he focuses on the climate and trade policy nexus as well as legal and diplomatic challenges arising from transatlantic and international climate and trade cooperation. David is an expert on trade issues with 15 years of experience in law, policy, and institutions governing EU and international trade.

Last week, Kiev reached an important milestone when Russian troops withdrew from the city of Kherson. This retreat has both strategic and symbolic significance, given that Kherson was the only regional capital that Moscow had managed to take since beginning its invasion in February. It also further adds to Ukraine's momentum over the past few months, during which Kiev has liberated nearly half of the territory originally occupied by Russia. Nevertheless, serious questions remain about the months ahead.Where can Ukraine go from here? How might the U.S. and Europe support Ukraine to end the war sooner rather than later? What are the new risks Kiev may face in the coming months? Michael Kofman and Mick Ryan join Andrea Kendall-Taylor to discuss the implications of the Russian withdrawal from Kherson, and what it means for Ukraine going forward. Michael Kofman is the Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at CNA as well as an Adjunct Senior Fellow at CNAS. His research focuses on Russia and the former Soviet Union, specializing in Russian armed forces, military thought, capabilities, and strategy. Mick Ryan is an Adjunct Fellow with the Australia Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He is also a retired major general in the Australian army as well as the author of "War Transformed: The Future of 21st Century Great Power Competition and Conflict."

On Tuesday, November 8th, voters went to the polls in the United States for the first federal elections since President Joe Biden took office. With control of both chambers of the U.S. Congress hanging in the balance, the results of these midterm elections have been highly anticipated not only in the United States but around the world. Although full results are not yet in, it looks likely that Democrats will lose their majority in the House of Representatives, while the Senate remains up for grabs. The shift in Congressional power will raise questions about the Biden Administration's future ability to execute on its foreign policy agenda. Most significantly, it is unclear to what extent Congress will continue to provide support for Ukraine amidst considerable isolationist sentiment in the Republican party. Other issues of particular concern to allies in Europe include U.S. efforts to tackle climate change, persistent trade tensions, the future U.S. policy toward China, and more. Steve Erlanger and Doug Kriner join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Carisa Nietsche to unpack what the election results could mean for the future of the transatlantic relationship and international relations more broadly. Steve Erlanger is the chief diplomatic correspondent in Europe for The New York Times. A two-time Pulitzer Prize recipient, he has previously served as the Times' bureau chief in seven countries, including posts in London, Paris, Moscow, and Berlin. Doug Kriner is The Clinton Rossiter Professor in American Institutions in the Department of Government at Cornell University. His research and teaching interests focus on American political institutions and the separation of powers, as well as on US foreign policy.

With the conclusion of the Chinese Communist Party's 20th National Party Congress last week, Xi Jinping has now secured a precedent-breaking third term as general secretary. The Congress was also notable for Xi's moves to replace the Politburo Standing Committee with a slate of his most committed loyalists, cementing his authoritarian grasp on power. Against the backdrop of these events, E.U. leaders met last week in Brussels to discuss their approach to Beijing, raising concerns over Europe's continued dependence on China for technology and raw materials. How has the war in Ukraine impacted European attitudes and policies toward China? Will German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's planned visit to the PRC this week pose a risk to future European cohesion on China? Bonnie Glaser and Dave Shullman join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to unpack the party congress and what a third term for Xi means for Europe.  Bonnie Glaser is director of the Asia Program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. She was previously senior adviser for Asia and the director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, while also serving as a nonresident fellow with the Lowy Institute in Sydney, Australia, and a senior associate with the Pacific Forum.  Dave Shullman is senior director of the Global China Hub at the Atlantic Council, where he leads the council's work on China. He has served as one of the US Government's top experts on East Asia, most recently as Deputy National Intelligence Officer for East Asia on the National Intelligence Council, where he led the IC's strategic analysis on East Asia.

As the war in Ukraine continues into its tenth month, it appears to have entered its most dangerous phase yet. During the past week, Russia's attacks on Ukrainian civilians have intensified, in apparent retaliation for last weekend's destruction of the Kerch Strait Bridge. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin's threats to use nuclear weapons following the annexation of four Ukrainian regions in the east and south have raised alarms across the world, even causing U.S. President Joe Biden to make warnings about the risks of “nuclear Armageddon.” Finally, the Ukrainian counteroffensive continues to make significant progress in reclaiming occupied territory, though it remains unclear to what extent Russia's partial military mobilization may be able to turn back the tide. Ambassadors Bill Taylor and John Tefft join Andrea Kendall-Taylor to discuss the most recent developments in this increasingly dangerous phase of the war, and how Putin might maneuver going forward. Bill Taylor is the Vice President for Russia and Eurasia at the United States Institute of Peace. He served as U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine from 2006 to 2009. John Tefft is a retired U.S. diplomat with more than 45 years of experience in the foreign service. He has previously served as U.S. Ambassador to Russia, Ukraine, Georgia, and Lithuania.

Nine years after the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative, China's flagship global infrastructure investment program is at a critical juncture. While many countries were initially eager to sign up for the initiative, the BRI has recently lost some of its luster in the face of mounting obstacles including delays, corruption, and heavy debt burdens associated with its projects. Over the past year, CNAS researchers have been thinking through how the BRI might develop in the two key regions of Europe and the Indo-Pacific, forecasting different scenarios for its evolution along with their respective consequences. This research recently culminated in the launch of a report entitled “Competitive Connectivity: Crafting Transatlantic Responses to the Belt and Road Initiative,” which outlines how the United States and Europe can work together to compete against the BRI. The authors of the report join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss how the BRI stands up nearly a decade after its launch, and how Europe and the U.S. might push against it going forward. Lisa Curtis is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at CNAS. Jake Stokes is a Fellow with the Indo-Pacific Security Program at CNAS. Josh Fitt is an Associate Fellow with the Indo-Pacific Security Program at CNAS. Carisa Nietsche is an Associate Fellow with the Transatlantic Security Program at CNAS. Nicholas Lokker is a Research Assistant with the Transatlantic Security Program at CNAS.

This past weekend, voters in Italy went to the polls for national parliamentary elections. As expected, the elections resulted in a victory for the alliance led by Giorgia Meloni's far-right Brothers of Italy party, which received enough votes to govern without support from the center-left. How significant of a change does this result represent for Italy, and how worried should we be about its implications for Europe and the transatlantic community? Nathalie Tocci and Cecilia Sottilotta join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to move beyond the headlines and assess what Meloni's victory means for Italian and European politics. Nathalie Tocci is Director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali and an Honorary Professor at the University of Tübingen. She was previously Special Advisor to EU High Representatives Federica Mogherini and Josep Borrell, during which she wrote the European Union's Global Strategy and worked on its implementation. Cecilia Sottilotta is an Assistant Professor at the American University of Rome. She is a leading expert on political risk analysis and is a frequent media commentator on Italian and European affairs.

How have recent Ukrainian counteroffensives changed the trajectory of the war? Will Putin's announcement of Russian mobilization increase the risk of potential escalation? After a highly successful Ukrainian counteroffensive in the North, Putin has now sought to turn the tables with two important developments. First, Kremlin proxies in four Ukrainian regions have announced plans for sham referenda on annexation to Russia. Additionally, Putin has announced a “partial” mobilization in which he plans to bring 300,000 reservists into Ukraine. Mick Ryan and Robert Lee join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss the most recent developments shaping the war in both Ukraine and Russia. Mick Ryan is an Adjunct Fellow with the Australia Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He is also a retired major general in the Australian army as well as the author of War Transformed: The Future of 21st Century Great Power Competition and Conflict. Rob Lee is a Senior Fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute's Eurasia Program and a former Marine infantry officer. He is currently completing his PhD on Russian defense policy at King's College London's War Studies Department.

What do the war in Ukraine and prospects of E.U. enlargement mean for the Balkans? Damir Marusic and Majda Ruge join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Nick Lokker to discuss how the shifting dynamics across the continent could impact the region's politics. Damir Marusic is a resident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council's Europe Center. He works principally on the Council's Balkans Forward Initiative, an effort working to foster a democratic, secure, and prosperous Western Balkans firmly integrated into the transatlantic community. Majda Ruge is a senior policy fellow with the Wider Europe program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, based in Berlin. Before joining ECFR, she spent three years as a fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute/SAIS at Johns Hopkins University.

During recent weeks and months, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has repeatedly been in the spotlight, drawing both praise and criticism from observers in Germany and abroad. On the one hand, he has received positive attention for his efforts to promote an ambitious agenda that would transform both Germany and the European Union, attempting to meet the pivotal current moment sparked by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. On the other hand, Scholz has encountered significant challenges in executing on this political agenda, facing a worsening energy crisis, a fractious coalition government, and a series of personal scandals. Jana Puglierin and Sam Denney join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss Scholz's recent speech in Prague, and the shifting dynamics within the European Union that could impact the future of the war in Ukraine. Jana Puglierin is the head of the Berlin office and a Senior Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. Her work focuses on German and European foreign, security, and defense policy, as well as Germany's role in Europe and transatlantic relations. Sam Denney is a German Chancellor Fellow of the Alexander von Humboldt Stiftung. He specializes in U.S. foreign policy, transatlantic relations, German domestic and foreign policy, and threats to democracy in Europe.

How does the crisis provoked by Nancy Pelosi's recent trip to Taiwan illustrate the broader state of U.S.-China relations?Jude Blanchette and Zack Cooper join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss the likely trajectory of the crisis and its broader implications for the transatlantic community. Jude Blanchette holds the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Previously, he was engagement director at The Conference Board's China Center for Economics and Business in Beijing, where he researched China's political environment with a focus on the workings of the Communist Party of China and its impact on foreign companies and investors. Zack Cooper is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where he studies U.S. strategy in Asia, including alliance dynamics and U.S.-China competition. He also teaches at Princeton University, co-directs the Alliance for Securing Democracy, and cohosts the “Net Assessment” podcast.

Has the war in Ukraine reached a critical turning point? Mike Kofman and Jeff Edmonds join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss the evolution of the military situation and what we might expect from a forthcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive. Mike Kofman is the Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at CNA as well as an Adjunct Senior Fellow at CNAS. His research focuses on Russia and the former Soviet Union, specializing in Russian armed forces, military thought, capabilities, and strategy. Jeff Edmonds is a Research Scientist with CNA's Russia Studies Program and an Adjunct Senior Fellow at CNAS. His research focuses on the Russian military, foreign policy, Russian threat perceptions, and Russian information and cyber operations.

What do the recent upheavals in European politics mean for the future of transatlantic cooperation? Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook and Max Bergmann join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss the path ahead for Europe. Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook serves as executive vice president at the Bertelsmann Foundation. Her prior positions include director and CEO of the German Council on Foreign Relations as well as executive director of the Future of Diplomacy Project at the Harvard Kennedy School. Max Bergmann is the director of the Europe Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Prior to joining CSIS, he was a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, where he focused on Europe, Russia, and U.S. security cooperation.

What have been the latest key developments in EU-China relations? Noah Barkin and Francesca Ghiretti join Carisa Nietsche and Jim Townsend to discuss milestones in the relationship and its prospects going forward. Noah Barkin is a Managing Editor with Rhodium Group's China practice and a Senior Visiting Fellow in the Asia Program at the German Marshall Fund. Francesca Ghiretti is an Analyst at MERICS, where she focuses on EU-China relations with an emphasis on economic security, China's global investments, China's footprint in Southern Europe, and UK-China relations.

What are the most important takeaways from this week's NATO summit in Madrid? Ivo Daalder and Doug Lute join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss how the alliance is adapting to meet the challenges of a new era Ivo Daalder is president of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. He served as the U.S. ambassador to NATO from 2009 to 2013. Doug Lute served as the United States Ambassador to NATO from 2013 to 2017. A career Army officer, he retired from active duty in 2010 as a lieutenant general after 35 years of service.

During the CNAS 2022 National Security Conference, Julianne Smith, U.S. Ambassador to NATO, joined Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend in conversation about Finland and Sweden's accession to NATO following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Then Andrea and Jim were joined by Steven Erlanger and David Sanger of The New York Times to continue the conversation.

As the war between Russia and Ukraine drags on with little progress toward a resolution, fractures are beginning to appear in the European response. While the European Union successfully came together to take swift and decisive action during the early stages of the conflict, unity has been harder to come by in recent weeks, with differing perceptions and attitudes leading to more frequent disagreements among member states. There has been particularly harsh criticism directed against Germany and France, which some have accused of taking an overly conciliatory approach toward Russia, pointing to evidence such as German hesitation to deliver weapons to Ukraine and French statements calling for the West not to “humiliate” Russia. As Berlin and Paris receive increasing pushback from other member states who advocate for a bolder policy of unreserved support for Ukraine, the prospects for continued unity appear much less certain going forward. Pierre Morcos and Jeremy Shapiro join Jim Townsend and Nick Lokker to make sense of these differing European perspectives on the Russia-Ukraine war. Pierre Morcos is a visiting fellow in the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies as well as a career diplomat with the French Foreign Service. Jeremy Shapiro is the research director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, where he focuses on U.S. foreign policy and transatlantic relations.

On May 15 and 16, the United States and European Union hosted the second Trade and Technology Council Meeting in Paris-Saclay, France. Since the inaugural TTC meeting, the TTC has emerged as an important venue for transatlantic coordination on export controls directed against Russia, providing a window for further transatlantic cooperation on technology policy. Capitalizing on this momentum, the joint statement from this meeting highlights shared initiatives the working groups have been advancing in the past months and plan to work on moving forward. Tyson Barker and Fran Burwell join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Carisa Nietsche to discuss takeaways from the TTC meeting as well as opportunities for transatlantic cooperation in technology policy. Tyson Barker is the head of the Technology and Global Affairs at the German Council on Foreign Relations, or DGAP. He previously worked at Aspen Germany where, as deputy executive director and fellow, he was responsible for the institute's digital and transatlantic programs. Frances G. Burwell is a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council and a senior director at McLarty Associates. Her work focuses on the European Union and U.S.–EU relations as well as a range of transatlantic economic, political, and defense issues.

More than two months after Russia's initial invasion of Ukraine, the war has now entered a second phase, with the two sides facing off in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region. Looking forward, it remains unclear how the conflict will evolve as well as how it could eventually come to an end, given the numerous difficulties that stand in the way of achieving any sort of negotiated settlement. Mike Kofman and Jeff Edmonds join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend discuss where the war now stands and what the future may hold for Ukraine, Russia, and the broader international community. Mike Kofman is the Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at CNA as well as an Adjunct Senior Fellow at CNAS. His research focuses on Russia and the former Soviet Union, specializing in Russian armed forces, military thought, capabilities, and strategy. Jeff Edmonds is a Research Scientist with CNA's Russia Studies Program and an Adjunct Senior Fellow at CNAS. His research focuses on the Russian military, foreign policy, Russian threat perceptions, and Russian information and cyber operations.

What can we expect from the final round of the French presidential election? The possibility of a Le Pen presidency poses major concerns for the future of the European Union and the transatlantic alliance, given her expressed desire to take actions such as leaving NATO's integrated military command, seeking rapprochement with Russia, and enshrining the supremacy of French legislation over EU law. Another term for Macron, by contrast, would likely see a continuation of his strong pro-European and internationalist vision for France. Célia Belin and Ben Haddad join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss this high-stakes political event, as well as what might unfold and what that might mean for France and the international community. Célia Belin is a visiting fellow in the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution. Her areas of expertise include transatlantic relations, U.S. foreign policy toward Europe, and French politics and foreign policy. Benjamin Haddad is the senior director of the Europe Center at the Atlantic Council. He is an expert in European politics and transatlantic relations, and his work has notably advocated for transatlantic unity in the face of Russian aggression, greater European responsibility, and investment on strategic matters.

Will Finland and Sweden join NATO? Since Russia launched its unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine in late February, European political and security dynamics have changed in profound ways. For Finland and Sweden, the invasion has ignited a new round of debate around the question of NATO membership, causing both countries to reexamine their longstanding policy of remaining outside the transatlantic military alliance. Despite this movement, no political decision has yet been made in either country, and obstacles may remain in the way of membership. Nevertheless, it appears that a seismic shift in foreign and security policy could be on the horizon for both countries. Anna Wieslander and Mika Aaltola join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss what we might expect to see going forward. Anna Wieslander serves as director for Northern Europe at the Atlantic Council. In addition to her role at the Atlantic Council, she chairs the Institute for Security and Development Policy in Stockholm and serves as secretary general of the Swedish Defense Association. Mika Aaltola is the Director of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. He is also a tenured professor of International Relations and European Union Affairs at Tallinn University in Estonia and holds the rank of docent at Tampere University.

What does Viktor Orbán's win in Hungary mean for the future of Europe? On April 3rd, voters in Hungary went to the polls for national parliamentary elections. Despite efforts by the opposition to unite around a single candidate, Viktor Orbán easily managed to win a fourth consecutive term as Prime Minister, as his right-wing Fidesz party retained the two-thirds super majority that has allowed it to drastically reshape Hungarian politics and society over the past twelve years. The European Union and the transatlantic alliance are certain to face major challenges from Orbán's continued leadership of Hungary, including his consistent pro-Putin stance amidst the war in Ukraine, his ongoing efforts to undermine the rule of law, and his hardline stance on critical issues such as migration. Dan Kelemen joins Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss this and more. Dan Kelemen is Professor of Political Science and Law and Jean Monnet Chair in European Union Politics at Rutgers University. He is the author or editor of six books, including The Transformation of Law and Regulation in the European Union, which won the Best Book award from the European Union Studies Association in 2013.

What role will China choose to play within the Russia-Ukrainian war? Beijing has notably refused to condemn Moscow for its military aggression, instead putting the blame on the West for sparking the crisis. Moreover, there are concerns that China may come to Russia's aid by providing military assistance or helping it to evade sanctions, though it remains unclear whether China will ultimately act so blatantly in Russia's favor. In any case, it is certain that the evolving relationship between Russia and China will be a key factor in both the current crisis and the emerging new world order more broadly. Jude Blanchette and Dave Shullman join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on the latest episode of Brussels Sprouts to discuss all of this and more. Jude Blanchette holds the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Previously, he was engagement director at The Conference Board's China Center for Economics and Business in Beijing, where he researched China's political environment with a focus on the workings of the Communist Party of China and its impact on foreign companies and investors. Dave Shullman is Senior Director of the Global China Hub at the Atlantic Council, where he leads the council's work on China. David's research focuses on China's foreign policy and grand strategy, U.S.-China relations, China-Russia relations, and the implications of China's rise for global order and the future of democracy.

With the war in Ukraine now entering its second month, we are seeing few day-to-day changes on the battlefield. Russia's focus appears to be primarily on the south and the east of the country, as it looks less and less likely that it will be able to muster sufficient forces to take Kyiv. Meanwhile, there has been limited progress in negotiations—while President Zelenskyy has said he is amenable to neutrality for Ukraine, there nonetheless remains a deep political divide when it comes to territorial integrity. Taken together, it seems that we are likely to see a long, drawn-out conflict with no real end in sight. Carl Bildt joins Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on the latest episode of Brussels Sprouts to discuss all of this and more. Carl Bildt is the co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations. He previously served as both Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden. Under his leadership, the government initiated major liberal economic reforms and negotiated Sweden's accession to the EU.

As the war in Ukraine continues into its fourth week, the picture on the ground has largely remained the same in recent days, with the Russian military making only minimal progress toward its objectives. Meanwhile, negotiations are continuing but look highly unlikely to produce tangible results in the next couple of weeks—Putin knows that the conflict will eventually be settled at the negotiating table, and Russia is therefore likely to increase the brutality of its tactics in the short-term with the aim of compelling Zelensky into concessions. Finally, the risk of an expanded conflict remains, demonstrated by Moscow's recent attack on a training facility near the Polish border as well as its warnings that Western arms convoys could be considered “legitimate targets” for attack. Mike Kofman and Jeff Edmonds join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to examine the continuing war and potential trajectories. Mike Kofman is the Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at CNA as well as an Adjunct Senior Fellow at CNAS. His research focuses on Russia and the former Soviet Union, specializing in Russian armed forces, military thought, capabilities, and strategy. Jeff Edmonds is a Research Scientist with CNA's Russia Studies Program and an Adjunct Senior Fellow at CNAS. His research focuses on the Russian military, foreign policy, Russian threat perceptions, and Russian information and cyber operations.

One week after Russia launched its invasion into Ukraine—an invasion that President Biden condemned as "premeditated and unprovoked" in his State of the Union address—Europe has become engulfed in its biggest war in decades. While Russia has expanded its assault on several key Ukrainian cities, a firm resistance from Ukrainian forces and civilians continues and the list of countries vowing immediate military aid to Ukraine continues to grow. On March 4, the Center for a New American Security hosted a panel featuring Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Richard Fontaine, Jeffrey Edmonds, and Michael Kofman to examine the unfolding crisis. Jeffrey Edmonds is an expert on U.S. national security, especially as it relates to Russia. He works full time for CNA's Russia Studies Program. Most recently, Jeff served as the Director for Russia on the National Security Council and acting Senior Director for Russia during the 2017 presidential transition. Prior to the NSC, Jeff served as a senior military analyst with the Central Intelligence Agency, covering Eurasian militaries. Michael Kofman serves as a Senior Research Scientist at the Center for Naval Analyses' Russia Studies Program, and a Fellow at the Kennan Institute, Woodrow Wilson International Center in Washington, D.C. His research focuses on the Russia and the former Soviet Union, specializing in the Russian armed forces, military thought, capabilities, and strategy.

The United States and its allies have released an unprecedented and sweeping set of sanctions and export controls in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This includes blocking sanctions on most major Russian banks, asset freezes on Russian elites, and a broad set of restrictions on exports of technology to Russia. Over the weekend, we saw the announcement of sanctions on Russia's central bank, along with removing select Russian banks from the SWIFT system and sanctions on Putin himself. On March 2, the Center for a New American Security hosted a panel moderated by Richard Fontaine and featuring Edward Fishman, Tom Keatinge, Emily Kilcrease, and Elina Ribakova to discuss what these new sanctions and export controls mean, how they will impact the Russian and global economies, and what to expect next in the economic domain from the United States and allies. Edward Fishman is an Adjunct Fellow at the Energy, Economics, and Security Program at the Center for a New American Security. Tom Keatinge is the Director of the Centre for Financial Crime and Security Studies at the Royal United Services Institute. Emily Kilcrease is a Senior Fellow and Program Director of the Energy, Economics, and Security Program at the Center for a New American Security. Elina Ribakova is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Energy, Economics, and Security Program at the Center for a New American Security, and she is the Deputy Chief Economist at the Institute of International Finance.

In response to the escalating crisis in Ukraine, Germany recently announced several historic policy shifts over the past few days. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz indicated that Germany would deliver weapons to Ukraine, reversing Germany's long-held refusal to deliver weapons to a conflict zone. Furthermore, Scholz announced that Germany would plan to spend more than 2% of GDP on defense spending year on year and would create a €100 billion investment fund for the armed forces. Claudia Major and Daniela Schwarzer join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Carisa Nietsche to assess this monumental shift in German foreign policy. Dr. Claudia Major is head of the International Security Division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin (SWP). Her research, advisory work and publications focus on security and defense policy in Europe and in a transatlantic context, including NATO, EU, Germany, UK, and France. Previously, Claudia held positions at the Center for Security Studies at ETH Zurich, the German Council on Foreign Relations (Berlin), the EU Institute for Security Studies (Paris), the German Foreign Office (NATO desk) and Sciences Po Paris. Claudia is member in various boards, such as the Advisory Board for Civilian Crisis Prevention at the Federal Foreign Office and the German-British Koenigswinter Conference. Dr. Daniela Schwarzer is executive director for Europe and Eurasia of the Open Society Foundations. Schwarzer is a renowned expert in European affairs and transatlantic and international relations. She is an honorary professor of political science at Freie Universität Berlin and a senior fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center. She has been a special advisor to European leaders such as EU High Representative Josep Borrell and to countries including Poland and France during the preparation of their EU Council presidencies.

Russia's swift and unprovoked invasion of the country this past week has been met with insane condemnations from leaders across the globe, including in the United States and Europe. As Russian soldiers engage in a full air and land operation on a massive scale, questions remain about how their military campaign might unfold as well as what the geopolitical implications might be for surrounding countries and the NATO alliance. On February 25, the Center for a New American Security hosted a panel featuring Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Richard Fontaine, Jeffrey Edmonds, and Michael Kofman to examine the unfolding crisis. Jeffrey Edmonds is an expert on US national security, especially as it relates to Russia. He works full time for CNA's Russia Studies Program. Most recently, Jeff served as the Director for Russia on the National Security Council and acting Senior Director for Russia during the 2017 presidential transition. Prior to the NSC, Jeff served as a senior military analyst with the Central Intelligence Agency, covering Eurasian militaries. Michael Kofman serves as a Senior Research Scientist at the Center for Naval Analyses' Russia Studies Program, and a Fellow at the Kennan Institute, Woodrow Wilson International Center in Washington, D.C. His research focuses on the Russia and the former Soviet Union, specializing in the Russian armed forces, military thought, capabilities, and strategy.

Earlier this week, Russia escalated its ongoing aggression toward Ukraine by announcing that it would formally recognize the independence of the separatist territories of Donetsk and Luhansk, a decision that the Kremlin has backed up by deploying troops to both Eastern Ukrainian regions. In preparation for the possibility of a wider conflict, more serious sanctions have been threatened and additional troops have been moved to NATO's eastern flank. Yet it remains unclear what Vladimir Putin's next move will be—while many believe that he is poised to go further and launch a massive military attack against Ukraine, some have argued that he may stop short of a full-blown war. Rob Lee joins Andrea Kendall Taylor and Jim Townsend to assess the events and implications of this major global crisis. Rob Lee is a Senior Fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute's Eurasia Program, as well as a PhD student researching Russian defense policy at King's College London's War Studies Department. He is a former Marine infantry officer, Alfa Fellow, and visiting fellow at the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST), a Russian think tank focused on defense policy.

Over the last 24-48 hours, there has been a dizzying number of new developments in the situation surrounding Ukraine and Russia, all of which are deeply concerning. This morning, the Kremlin formally accused the United States of ignoring the package nature of its proposal for security guarantees. This comes amid signs that Russia is creating pretexts for conflict, including spreading false claims of genocide in Donetsk and Luhansk, as well as shelling a Ukrainian village in the Donbas in an apparent attempt to bait Ukrainian forces into responded. Finally, Vladimir Putin is scheduled to soon address the entire Russian Federal Assembly, am ominous sign that a major action could be on the horizon. To make sense of this, Samuel Charap joins Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss these recent, concerning developments. Samuel Charap is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, where he focuses on the foreign policies of Russia and the former Soviet states, as well as on European and Eurasian regional security. He has written widely on Ukraine, including his 2017 book titled Everyone Loses: The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest for Post-Soviet Eurasia.

Over the past week, the situation in Ukraine has seemed to have approached a critical juncture. U.S. intelligence has warned of an imminent Russian invasion that could begin any day now; yet at the same time, Moscow has insisted that it does not seek a military conflict and declared its continued openness to a diplomatic solution. Given Estonia's status as a crucial NATO ally during this conflict, Foreign Minister Eva-Maria Liimets joins Andrea Kendall-Taylor to discuss the current conflict. Eva-Maria Liimets is the current Foreign Minister of Estonia. She previously served as the Estonian Ambassador to the Czech Republic as well as in numerous other posts throughout her long career as a foreign service professional.

Last Friday, the U.S. intelligence community revealed that it has reason to believe that Russian military action against Ukraine is imminent, with an invasion possibly occurring as soon as this week. Over the past few days, the Biden administration has begun evacuating the U.S. embassy in Kiev, instructed American citizens to leave Ukraine immediately, and reiterated its intention to forge a massive transatlantic response to any violation of Ukraine's territorial integrity. Mike Kofman and Jeff Edmonds join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to help us make sense of this development. Mike Kofman is the Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at CNA as well as an Adjunct Senior Fellow at CNAS. His research focuses on Russia and the former Soviet Union, specializing in Russian armed forces, military thought, capabilities, and strategy. Jeff Edmonds is a Research Scientist with CNA's Russia Studies Program and an Adjunct Senior Fellow at CNAS. His research focuses on the Russian military, foreign policy, Russian threat perceptions, and Russian information and cyber operations.

As the 2022 winter Olympics kicked off last Friday in Beijing, a high-profile meeting took place on the sidelines between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Following their meeting, Putin and Xi released a joint statement emphasizing their shared grievances with respect to the U.S.-led world order, condemning NATO enlargement as well as alleged attempts by outside forces to interfere in their internal affairs. Despite this show of solidarity, however, tensions remain in the relationship between Moscow and Beijing. Alexander Gabuev and David Shullman join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to help us make sense of this development. Alexander Gabuev is a senior fellow and the Chair of the Russia in the Asia-Pacific Program at the Carnegie Moscow Center. His research is focused on Russia's policy toward East and Southeast Asia, political and ideological trends in China, and China's relations with its neighbors. David Shullman is Senior Director of the Global China Hub at the Atlantic Council, where he leads the council's work on China. David's research focuses on China's foreign policy and grand strategy, U.S.-China relations, China-Russia relations, and the implications of China's rise for global order and the future of democracy.

Vladimir Putin recently spoke about Ukraine for the first time since December—a speech in which he conveyed mixed messages about his intentions. On the one hand, he noted that he hoped to find a solution to the crisis, noting the extensive diplomacy that has been taking place. On the other hand, he emphasized that Russia's security concerns have not been seriously addressed by the United States and Europe, underscoring the difficulty of coming to an agreement. Meanwhile, facts on the ground continue to suggest that conflict remains more likely than not, as Russian forces continue to increase—including, more units, logistics, and enablers such as blood supplies. Germany's former UN Ambassador, Christoph Heusgen, joins Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss the rapidly evolving situation. Christoph Heusgen is the former Ambassador of Germany to the United Nations, a role which he held from 2017 to 2021. He previously served as a top security and foreign affairs advisor to former Chancellor Angela Merkel, and later this year he will take over as Chairman of the Munich Security Conference.

The United States and its NATO allies have begun pursuing other courses of action to the Russia-Ukraine crisis besides diplomacy, including decisions to put military forces on standby and to send ships and fighter jets to reinforce Eastern Europe. Amid this flurry of activity, there has been a lack of clarity about the intentions behind these moves, lending support to the false Kremlin narrative that NATO forces are converging on Russia and pose a threat to the country's security interests. Ben Hodges joins Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss what the U.S.-NATO response to Ukraine really means, along with discussing the potential trajectory of future events. Lieutenant General (ret.)Ben Hodges holds the Pershing Chair in Strategic Studies at the Center for European Policy Analysis. He previously served in the U.S. Army for 38 years, completing his last assignment as commander of U.S. Army Europe from 2014-2017 in Wiesbaden, Germany.

The strength of Germany's support for Ukraine and the overall cohesion of NATO has come under question after Germany blocked Estonia from sending German-made howitzer artillery to Ukraine. In continuation of our series of rapid reactions to this constantly developing crisis between Russia and Ukraine, Constanze Stelzenmüller and Jana Puglierin join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss how events are likely to unfold in the upcoming weeks. Constanze Stelzenmüller is an expert on German, European, and transatlantic foreign and security policy, and strategy. She is the inaugural holder of the Fritz Stern Chair on Germany and Transatlantic Relations in the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution. Jana Puglierin is the head of the Berlin office and a Senior Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. She directs ECFR's Re:shape Global Europe project and has also advised the German Bundestag as an expert on arms control and non-proliferation.

France has entered a pivotal period that will determine its future political trajectory as it begins its six-month rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union while also being a few months out from the country's presidential election in April. What can we expect in the upcoming months? Célia Belin and Tara Varma join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss the numerous opportunities and obstacles that the convergence of these two events poses for the future of France. Célia Belin is a visiting fellow in the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution. Her areas of expertise include transatlantic relations, U.S. foreign policy toward Europe, and French politics and foreign policy. Tara Varma is a senior policy fellow and head of the Paris office of the European Council on Foreign Relations, where she follows French foreign policy and European security developments.

Leaders in both the United States and Europe are scrambling to figure out how to deter Russia from invading Ukraine and how to respond if Moscow does in fact go through with military aggression. In continuation of our series of rapid reactions to this constantly developing crisis, Michael Kofman and Angela Stent join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss how events are likely to unfold in the coming weeks. Michael Kofman serves as an Adjunct Senior Fellow for the Transatlantic Security Program at the Center for a New American Security, as well as Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at CNA and as a Fellow at the Kennan Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center in Washington, DC. His research focuses on Russia and the former Soviet Union, specializing in Russian armed forces, military thought, capabilities, and strategy. Angela Stent is Senior Adviser to the Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies and professor emerita of government and foreign service at Georgetown University. She is also a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and co-chairs its Hewett Forum on Post-Soviet Affairs.

After a 2021 filled with both ups and downs, where do things stand between the United States and Europe as we head into 2022? Kori Schake and Steven Erlanger join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss how transatlantic relations have fared over the past year. Kori Schake is a senior fellow and the director of foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute. Dr. Schake has previously served as the deputy director-general of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, as well as in various positions in the U.S. government. Steven Erlanger is the chief diplomatic correspondent in Europe for The New York Times. A two-time Pulitzer Prize recipient, he has previously served as the Times' bureau chief in seven countries, including posts in London, Paris, Moscow, and Berlin.

As the situation in Ukraine continues to quickly evolve, what can we expect in the upcoming future? Fiona Hill joins Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss what these various meetings could mean for the future of Ukraine and European security more broadly. Fiona Hill is a Senior Fellow in the Center on the United States and Europe in the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution. She recently served as Deputy Assistant to the President and Senior Director for European and Russian affairs on the National Security Council from 2017 to 2019.

Could there be a diplomatic solution to avoid an armed escalation in Ukraine after initial diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Russia? Michael McFaul joins Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss the result of the first round of dialogue between American and Russian officials in Geneva. Michael McFaul is the Director of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. He served for five years in the Obama administration, first as Senior Director for Russian and Eurasian Affairs at the National Security Council from 2009 to 2012, and then as U.S. Ambassador to the Russian Federation from 2012 to 2014.

How should the U.S. and its Arctic allies approach relations with Russia in the region? In this special co-branded episode, Mikkel Runge Olesen and Flemming Splidsboel Hansen from the Danish Institute of International Studies join Jim Townsend to discuss the path toward a stable and secure Arctic. Mikkel Runge Olesen is a Senior Researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies. His work focuses on NATO and transatlantic relations, the Arctic, Baltic Sea security, and Danish foreign policy. Flemming Splidsboel Hansen is a Senior Researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies, where his research focuses on the post-Soviet space, including Russian foreign policy and military affairs.

How did the NATO expansion process during the 1990s influence the relationship between Russia and the West? Mary Sarotte joins Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss her new book, Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate. Mary Sarotte is an expert in the history of international relations and the inaugural holder of the Kravis Chair at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) in Washington, DC. In addition to Not One Inch, she is the author of numerous other works, including The Collapse: The Accidental Opening of the Berlin Wall and 1989: The Struggle to Create Post-Cold War Europe. Her books have been named Economist and Financial Times "Books of the Year", along with receiving other awards and commendations.

What does Germany's new coalition treaty tell us about how the incoming government under Chancellor Olaf Scholz will approach security and defense policy? Christian Mölling and Claudia Major join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss the implications of the transition for Germany, Europe, and the transatlantic relationship. Christian Mölling is the research director at the German Council on Foreign Relations, where he also heads the Security and Defense Program. Claudia Major is the Head of the International Security Division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin. Her work focuses on security and defense policy in Europe and in a transatlantic context.

How should the United States and Europe interpret and respond to Russia's various efforts to exert pressure on its neighbors, including its military buildup on the border with Ukraine? Michael Kofman and Kadri Liik join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss the implications of the Kremlin's actions for the transatlantic community. Michael Kofman serves as Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at CNA and as a Fellow at the Kennan Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center in Washington, DC. His research focuses on Russia and the former Soviet Union, specializing in Russian armed forces, military thought, capabilities, and strategy. Kadri Liikis a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. Her research focuses on Russia, Eastern Europe, and the Baltic region. Before joining ECFR, she was the director of the International Centre for Defence Studies in Estonia, where she also worked as a senior researcher and director of the Centre's Lennart Meri Conference.

How should the U.S. and Europe endeavor to deter and defend themselves against aggression in the gray zone between peace and war? Elizabeth Braw joins Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss the path towards creating greater transatlantic resilience to gray zone threats. Elisabeth Braw is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), where she focuses on defense against emerging national security challenges, such as hybrid and gray zone threats. Concurrently, she is a columnist with Foreign Policy, where she writes on national security and the globalized economy, and a member of the National Preparedness Commission (UK).

How should the U.S. government respond to recent calls for greater European strategic autonomy in security and defense? Hans Binnendijk and Ambassador Alexander Vershbow join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss the path towards a transatlantic agreement on strategic autonomy. Hans Binnendijk is a Distinguished Fellow at the Atlantic Council. He formerly served as Senior Director for Defense Policy at the National Security Council and as Director of the National Defense University's Institute for National Strategic Studies. Alexander Vershbow is a Distinguished Fellow at the Atlantic Council. His previous positions include NATO Deputy Secretary General, United States Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs, and U.S. Ambassador to Russia.

What are the key takeaways from the first meeting of the U.S.-EU Trade and Technology Council? Tyson Barker and Frances Burwell join Carisa Nietsche and Jim Townsend to discuss the goals of the TTC and how it fits into the broader transatlantic technology relationship. Tyson Barker is head of the Technology and Global Affairs at the German Council on Foreign Relations, or DGAP. He previously worked at Aspen Germany where, as deputy executive director and fellow, he was responsible for the institute's digital and transatlantic programs. Frances G. Burwell is a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council and a senior director at McLarty Associates. Her work focuses on the European Union and U.S.-EU relations as well as a range of transatlantic economic, political, and defense issues.