Crashing the War Party

According to journalist Matthew Petti's number crunching, 31% of English-speaking media have been using the phrase "Hamas-led Health Ministry" since Oct. 17. Before that day, only 7% were using such a phrase. What happened? Petti points to the Oct. 17 explosion at the Al-Ahli hospital in Gaza, the perpetrator of which has not been independently confirmed. He said civilian casualty counts were not only second-guessed by the Biden administration but questioned because the ministry was "Hamas run." Repeating this led to the Western media pick-up of the phrase. Not only does linking the ministry and its data to the militant group delegitimize both, it serves a broader insidious narrative that Gazans and Palestinians are Hamas, which serves Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's interests in justifying the relentless bombing of civilians. Petti talks to Kelley and Daniel about this and the broader responsibility of the Western media in the coverage and interpretation of these complex issues on the ground today.More from Matt Petti:Media amplified US, Israeli narrative on Palestinian deaths, Responsible Statecraft, 11/20/23The international pressure on Israel that really matters comes from the Middle East, Analyst News, 10/19/23Why does Egypt fear evacuating Gaza? Responsible Statecraft, 10/13/23America's Broken, Lurid View of Foreign Wars, Reason magazine, 10/12/23 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

Experts are now speculating that America's reputation in the world, particularly in the Middle East, is taking a hit worse than when it invaded and occupied Iraq in 2003. Giorgio Cafiero, head of Gulf State Analytics and a keen observer of politics in the region, tells the podcast this week that President Biden is becoming more hated than George W. Bush during that era. This threatens to get even worse each day that the Israeli bombardments continue and more Palestinian civilians are killed (as of this writing, it is well over 11,000, nearly half of them children). Meanwhile, Arab leaders, especially those in the Gulf States with ties to both the U.S. and Israel, are coming under increasing pressure by the Arab Street to do more than just rhetorically signal their anger and displeasure with Tel Aviv and Washington.In the first segment, Kelley & Dan talk about the big Biden-Xi Jinping meeting in San Francisco this week: a nothingburger or a real step forward for diplomacy? More from Giorgio Cafiero:Consequences Of The Israeli War On Gaza, News Looks, 11/14/23Will Turkey-Israel ties reach breaking point amid Gaza war?, The New Arab, 11/14/23Will UAE hurt Russia with export controls to please the US amid Israel war? Al Jazeera, 11/7/23China and Israel have enjoyed serious ties. What happens now? Responsible Statecraft, 11/3/23 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

A popular narrative after the Oct. 7 Hamas attack and ensuing retaliation by Israel has been that the U.S. had dropped the ball because it had 'pivoted away' from the Middle East over the last three administrations. That is simply not true. According to our guests this week, CATO researchers Jon Hoffman and Jordan Cohen,  Washington has maintained a status quo in the Middle East that had become untenable. It has been fueling the region with weapons; making deals with dictators in Saudi Arabia and Israel at the expense of the Palestinian issue, and ignoring the growing violence and tensions in the occupied territories. We talk about this and more as the violence threatens to spill over to other parts of the region, which will embolden those in Washington who want us to have a bigger, not a smaller footprint there.More from Jon Hoffman and Jordan Cohen:Emergency Aid or Budget Trick? Assessing Biden's $100 Billion Spending Request, Jordan Cohen w/ Dominik Lett, CATO, 10/20/23Biden's Middle East Deal is a Disaster, Jon Hoffman, Responsible Statecraft, 9/27/23Many Arms and Little Influence in the Middle East, Hoffman and Cohen, War on the Rocks, 8/23/23Counter-revolutionary? A deeper look at Israel's relationships with Arab autocrats, Responsible Statecraft This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

There are currently 2,500 American troops in Iraq and another 900 in Syria. Their bases have come under repeated fire in both countries since the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks in Israel. According to Pentagon officials, Iranian-backed militias are to blame, and they expect more as fighting ramps up in Gaza and the West Bank. Adam Weinstein, a senior fellow on Middle East issues at the Quincy Institute and an Afghanistan War veteran, spoke with Dan and Kelley this week about how vulnerable these troops are today. He also talked about the risks of the war expanding to Lebanon and the possibility of Iran and neighboring Arab nations, along with the U.S., getting dragged into the conflagration. In the first segment, Kelley and Dan talk about the reaction of the Global South and Arab state leaders to the events in Israel and how the international community seems to be fracturing, once again, against U.S. desires for consensus.More from Adam Weinstein:Iraq as it Is, with Steven Simon, Foreign Affairs, 9/27/23‘The Return of the Taliban' Makes Sense of Afghanistan's Misery, Foreign Policy, 7/19/23How to Withdraw From Iraq Within Five Years, with Steven Simon, Quincy Institute, 5/9/23 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

In this special episode, Kelley and Dan update the headlines from the Gaza strip and talk about how U.S. policy in the region has become increasingly effective in terms of pushing for a two-state solution and helping to restrain the more extreme impulses of the Israeli government ahead of the Hamas attacks on Israel and retaliatory strikes in Gaza over the last week.In the first segment, we talk to Mark Hannah, senior fellow of the Eurasia Group Foundation about the organization's recent polling, Views of US Foreign Policy in a Fragmented World, which finds strong public opinion in favor of diplomacy with Iran and Russia, declining interest in fighting a forever war in Ukraine, and an interesting uptick in support for military intervention against China in defense of Taiwan.More from Mark Hannah:The Real Reason Ukraine Isn't Ready to Join NATO, Politico, 9/18/23Washington Should Divide, Not Unite, Russia and China, The National Interest, 9/14/23Straight Talk on the Country's War Addiction, New York Times, 2/18/23 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

It took the Ukraine war to show how broken the U.S. war machine really is. President Eisenhower warned about the military-industrial complex in 1961 and we know that it is ten times as worse as he even imagined. But after almost two years of war in Ukraine and tens of billions of American weapons transfers, we now know how limited -- if not dysfunctional -- the MIC really is. Yale scholar and lecturer Michael Brenes joins us to discuss how this happened historically, and what Washington might do to claw the industry back from the five mega-corporations that now dominate and control U.S. defense manufacturing and supply.In the first segment, Kelley and Dan talk about the latest events in Gaza and Israel and bemoan the exploitation of the conflict by outside warmongers who want to drag the U.S. into a wider conflict with Iran.More from Michael Brenes:How America Broke its War Machine, Foreign Affairs, 7/3/23The future of restraint after Ukraine, Foreign Exchanges, 12/19/22Great-Power Competition Is Bad for Democracy, with Van Jackson, 7/14/22 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

The Ukraine War has exposed a lot when it comes to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization — otherwise known as NATO. Aside from the "renewed mission" and "unity" that has emerged to help Ukraine confront the Russian invasion, there are downsides. NATO has a limited capacity of weapons stores and manpower and the US is taking on a disproportionate share of the leadership and resource sharing. Dr. Maitra Sumantra, a senior fellow at the Center for Renewing America, says it's past time for Americans to rethink further expansion and scaling back the US dominance of this organization. We talk about where the support exists for this kind of dramatic shift, and how resistant the political establishment here and in European capitals would be toward such change.In the first segment, Kelley and Dan talk about the new UN-approved, Kenyan-led security mission in Haiti.More from Sumantra Maitra:Europe's Revealed Preferences, The American Conservative, 10/423 Britain's Military Enlightenment, The American Conservative, 8/14/23Pivoting the U.S. Away from Europe to a Dormant NATO, Center for Renewing America, 2/16/23 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

We welcomed back to the show this week the co-hosts of Conflicts of Interest podcast, Kyle Anzalone & Connor Freeman, who both write and edit and support the Libertarian Institute. We ask them about the rancorous split among libertarians over Ukraine, a fissure not seen in the Global War on Terror. We also talked about signs of fraying support for a forever war situation in Ukraine, on Capitol Hill and outside the Beltway, increasing tensions between the U.S. and China, and the GOP presidential field.In the first segment, Kelley and Dan chewed over the demise of Senator Bob Menendez, Egypt's man in D.C.More from Kyle and Connor:US-Backed SDF Militia Shells Positions Taken By Arab Fighters in Eastern Syria (Freeman), The Libertarian Institute, 9/27/23White House Close To Providing Kiev With Cluster-Armed ATACMS (Freeman), The Libertarian Institute, 9/25/23US Deploys F-16s to Romania for Patrols Over Black Sea (Anzalone), Libertarian Institute, 9/25/23Ukraine Claims Sabotage Attack on Critical Russian Airbase, Provides Questionable Evidence (Anzalone), Libertarian Institute, 9/20/23 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

Ask anyone in Washington and they'll tell you, in varying levels of panic, that China is a threat to the United States. Some will say it's the greatest threat ever or, in military-speak, the "pacing threat." So who is right? And if China is a challenge or even a threat, to its neighbors if not America directly, then how does the Biden Administration rationally deal with that? We asked longtime China security studies expert Michael Swaine to join us this week to talk about current U.S. policy and whether or not it is going in the wrong direction. He tells us that the saber-rattling on both sides of the political aisle is risking a "radical deterrence" effect — in other words, there is a way to do positive deterrence that avoids war, not "radical deterrence," which drives you closer to real conflict. In the first segment, Kelley and Dan hash out their favorite headlines of the week, including Zelensky's visit to Washington, Biden's signing of defense security assurances for Bahrain (and possibly for Saudi soon, too), and Canadian accusations that the Indian government is linked to the assassination of a Sikh independence activist in British Columbia in June.More from Michael Swaine: How to Break the Impasse in U.S.-China Crisis Communication, United States Institute of Peace,7/26/23A Restraint Approach to U.S.–China Relations: Reversing the Slide Toward Crisis and Conflict,  with Andrew Bacevich, the Quincy Institute, 4/18/23The Worrisome Erosion of the One China Policy, The National Interest, 2/27/23A Restraint Recipe for America's Asian Alliances and Security Partnerships, with Sarang Shidore, Quincy Institute, 11/18/22 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

This week, President Joe Biden announced that he was unfreezing $6 billion in frozen Iranian funds as part of a broader deal that involves an important prisoner swap. The deal has drawn howling from the usual suspects, those who believe any diplomatic course with Iran spells weakness and blunder. Sina Toossi, an expert in U.S.-Iran relations and senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, joined us this week to talk about the deal and how attempts by hawks to coerce regime change in Iran has actually made things worse, for all involved, including the people of Iran. We also talk about the legacy of Masha Amini, whose detention and death in jail a year ago sparked nationwide protests and societal turmoil, reaching the highest levels of the country's repressive theocracy.In the first segment, Kelley and Dan talk about Ukraine and the latest 'red line' the White House has threatened to cross: giving long-range ATACM missiles to Ukraine.More from Sina Toossi:The US-Iran Prisoner Swap: A Breakthrough or a Band-Aid? Jacobin, 8/13/23Iran's Supreme Leader opens space for possible nuclear deal, Responsible Statecraft, 6/14/23 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

We are excited to sit down (metaphorically) with veteran, whistleblower, peace activist, and foreign policy dissident Matthew Hoh. He has spent the last few years helping to build the Eisenhower Media Network, which is designed to promote and give voice to veterans with a critical point of view of U.S. wars, foreign policy, and the military-industrial complex. Hoh has been at the forefront of the anti-war movement since serving as a Marine in Iraq and as a State Department officer in Afghanistan during the post-9/11 wars. In this episode, we talk about the challenges of the current peace movement in regard to the Ukraine War and how folks who may have initially supported the one-track Washington policy may be seeing the benefits of pushing for more diplomacy and fewer weapons or else prolonging a conflict that is ultimately more destructive for Ukrainians.In the first segment, Kelley and Dan discuss the absolute chaos in Syria, with U.S. troops and a befuddled Washington policy right at the center. Here's a primer from reporter and Middle East analyst Matthew Petti.More from Matthew Hoh:Red Meat to the Ravenous Dogs, substack, 7/27/23 Destroying Ukraine to Save it, Counterpunch, 6/30/23A Long War Wanted: Diplomatic Malpractice in Ukraine, 6/9/23 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

For the last two decades, the U.S. military has been heavily invested in Africa — in training, weapons sharing, and basing — per its "war on terrorism." Unfortunately, the places in Africa that have had the most U.S. investment in this regard are now among the most unstable on the planet. Somalia continues to be wracked by militia violence and a fragile (at best) government, while the Sahel in West Africa has experienced no less than 20 government coups since 2010. Elizabeth Shackelford and Emma Sanderson of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs join us this week to talk about their latest report (with Ethan Kessler), "Less is More: A New Strategy for US Security Assistance to Africa," which argues that not only have these counter-terror operations failed to make life in these countries better, they have actually increased security threats for the people who live there, and to American interests.In the first segment, Kelley & Dan discuss the old-school hawks making a big — and cringeworthy — return on the GOP debate stage, with Ron Desantis and Vivek Ramaswamy taking their body blows on Ukraine.More from Shackelford and Sanderson:Less is More: A New Strategy for US Security Assistance to Africa, Elizabeth Shackelford, Emma Sanderson, Ethan Kessler, Chicago Council on Global Affairs, 8/21/23What's tragic about the coup in Niger, Elizabeth Shackelford, Chicago Tribune (paywall), 8/11/23The Dissent Channel, Elizabeth Shackelford, PublicAffairs, May 2020. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

Eighteen months into the war in Ukraine and the picture is grim. After so many US officials — including former military — pumped up the prospects of the Ukraine counteroffensive — it looks like the conflict is headed into a bloody stalemate if not a Russian rout. Lyle Goldstein, Director of the Asia Engagement program at Defense Priorities, has been one of the more sober voices calling for a diplomatic pathway rather than a commitment to endless war, because, as a military historian and strategist he could see that the Russians had the advantage from the beginning of the year. He returns to the show to talk about what went wrong and where things can go from here. In the first segment, Kelley & Dan discuss this week's Human Rights Watch report that charges Saudi Arabia of systematically killing hundreds — perhaps even thousands — of Ethiopian migrants at the Saudi border. If true, how can Biden continue to justify reported plans to deliver goodies for Riyadh  — including a security pact and sophisticated US weaponry — in exchange for Saudi-Israel normalization?More from Lyle Goldstein:China Studies Nuclear Risk in the Context of the Ukraine War, with Nathan Waecher, The Diplomat, 7/21/23Is the Ukraine War moving toward a ‘Korea solution'?, Responsible Statecraft, 1/30/23Seeking Alternatives to Military Escalation in the Ukraine War, Inkstick, 11/16/22 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

Last week, the Biden administration announced a deal with the Iranian regime that would free five Iranian-American prisoners in Tehran in exchange for several Iranian prisoners here in the U.S. The deal would also free up $6 billion in frozen Iranian funds to be used solely for humanitarian purposes in Iran. Brussels-based foreign policy analyst Eldar Mamedov joins us this week to talk about the Republican-hawk backlash against the deal and what the agreement might mean for future diplomatic efforts between the U.S. and Iran. We also get him to talk about Biden's apparent moves to get Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel, and at what cost. In the first segment Kelley and Dan discuss the New York Times' latest attempt to diminish non-interventionists and restrainers on the Ukraine war issue — this time on the Left.More Eldar Mamedov:Hawks hurl lies over Iran prisoner swap but can't hide this truth, Responsible Statecraft, 8/11/23Fresh hysteria over detail-less Bolivia-Iran security deal, Responsible Statecraft, 8/1/23Qatar emerges as go-between on frozen US-Venezuela front, Responsible Statecraft, 7/6/23 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

Does Washington have a plan B if the Ukrainian counteroffensive doesn't work out? Kelley and Daniel talk to foreign policy and politics writer James Carden about continued maximalist talk in the Beltway, setting up the Ukraine war for another forever war. He also talks about the "peace conference" in Saudi Arabia last weekend and his disappointment that there is no real diplomatic push on behalf of the major powers. Moreover, how politics in Washington are precluding actual debate on Ukraine, whether it be over the new aid package that the Biden administration now seeks or the lack of a real strategy to end the war.Kelley and Dan also discuss an emerging plan in the White House to apparently offer security guarantees to Saudi Arabia, along with other goodies, in return for its normalization with Israel. More from James Carden:The Coming Battle: Who Lost Ukraine? The American Conservative magazine, 8/7/23 When facts cut through the fog of war, w/ Katrina Vanden Heuvel, Responsible Statecraft, 7/25/23Now is not the time for Ukraine to Join NATO, w/ Katrina Vanden Heuvel, The Guardian, 7/6/23 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

The Senate just passed a defense spending bill with a top line of $886 billion. Added to other national security-related funds like nuclear weapons modernization and homeland security, the U.S. is poised to spend more than one trillion on defense in 2024, with more than half going to military contractors. Julia Gledhill, a Pentagon spending expert with the Project on Government Oversight (POGO), joins us this week to bring us up to speed on the Congressional shenanigans involving the budget, including "emergency spending" that will allow the government to blow past spending limits, Ukraine and Taiwan aid that is expected to be slipped into a supplemental aid package, and how contractors are benefiting from the war in Ukraine, and will continue to do so, long after the conflict ends.In the first segment, Kelley and Dan talk about the heartbreaking conditions on the ground in Haiti and whether a multinational peacekeeping force would help or hurt the situation. We also discuss the coup in Sudan and how US military assistance has actually made things worse in the African "coup belt."More from Julia Gledhill:1) The ultimate All-American slush fund, with William Hartung, Tom Dispatch, 7/22/23 2) Defense Industry Crying Wolf on Its Finances, POGO, 5/22/233) Lawmakers quietly gave weapons firms bailout for unproven inflation burden, Responsible Statecraft, 3/3/23 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

In lieu of promising Ukraine President Zelensky NATO membership, the alliance has promised 300,000 high-alert troops and a ton of new assistance and security guarantees. What kind of hole is the West digging here, for itself, and Ukraine? The CATO Institute's Justin Logan joins us again to talk about the quandary of dangling NATO and long-term security guarantees in front of NATO. He also talks about how the American people seem totally oblivious to the fact that none of this is in the national interest. In the first segment, Dan & Kelley talk about Israeli President Herzog's visit to Washington and the rush on Capitol Hill to embrace the "ironclad" relationship. More from Justin Logan:Don't let Ukraine join NATO, with Josh Shifrinson, Foreign Affairs, 7/7/23No to Ukraine in NATO, DC Journal, 6/7/23 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

The media distortion field and the fog of war. We hear these terms quite often but it's been a long time since we saw them both so fully in action. As a result, there is little known on the real casualty figures in the war in Ukraine, how much of American/Western weapons and equipment has been destroyed, and most importantly, whether Ukraine is "winning" as it contends to be. We talk to (Ret.) Col. Doug Macgregor this week and his prognosis is dim: the war is going much worse for the Ukrainians than we are being told. Without a ceasefire and real negotiations, the country is on its way to being destroyed.In the first segment, Dan and Kelley talk about an amazing long-form report by Sarah A. Topol in the New York Times illustrating the current state of Guam, a U.S. territory that has been completely taken over by the U.S. military. In fact, it has had little identity of its own beyond a giant military base, since WWII.More from Doug Macgregor:After Bakhmut, The American Conservative, 5/23/23The Gathering Storm, The American Conservative, 5/15/23Americans Must Choose, The American Conservative, 4/14/23 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

Despite all of his assurances to the contrary — that Washington would return to its role as a steward of global democratic reform — Biden has mostly continued what every previous American president has done: prop up autocrats to keep "stability" in the Middle East. Cato Institute policy analyst Jon Hoffman came on the show this week to point out one of the most blatant of Biden's contradictions: his support for Egyptian president Abdel Fattah El-Sisi. We also talk about Washington's obsession with getting Arabs to sign onto normalization agreements with Israel, and what a common sense foreign policy in the Middle East would really look like. In the first segment, Kelley and Dan talk about the administration's change of heart over sending cluster bombs to the Ukrainian military.More from Jon Hoffman:Ten Years After Coup, the U.S. Still Supports Tyranny in Egypt, Lawfare, 7/3/23The US Will Not Gain from Israel-Saudi Normalization, The Hill, 6/19/23Middle East Autocrats, Islamophobia, and “Reverse Orientalism,” Bridge Initiative, 6/15/23 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

On Thursday, India's prime minister, Narendra Modi comes to Washington and will address a joint session of Congress. There are a lot of expectations for this visit, as Washington really wants India to be a strategic partner in its China containment strategy. But India has its own interests, and while it is more than happy to work with the U.S. on trade, economic development, and even military tech and industrial capabilities, it has taken its own course on China and as we know, Ukraine. So what, if anything, will both sides get out of this week's visit? Quincy Institute scholar Sarang Shidore sets the table for us, on the relationship that the U.S. wants with India, and the relationship that actually exists.In the first segment, Kelley and Dan talk about the building pressure on NATO members to come up with a blueprint for Ukraine membership — or a non-NATO arrangement that is the next best thing to Article 5.More by Sarang Shidore:1) Indonesia's audacious Ukraine play is a message from the Global South, Responsible Statecraft, 6/5/232) Climate Security and Instability in the Bay of Bengal Region, Council on Foreign Relations, 4/19/233) Is the US Going Too Far in Its Alliance With the Philippines? The Diplomat, 4/11/23Thanks for reading Crashing the War Party! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

There is no better time than now for the United States to start shifting responsibility for European security to where it belongs: Europe. While European states don't necessarily disagree, there's a lot of trepidation for change, given the war in Ukraine, the predominance of U.S. weapons and leadership, and the long-unused European defense muscle. But one thing is certain, the U.S. can't necessarily keep its focus on Europe while saber-rattling for conflict with China.To talk about these dynamics and more, Stephen Wertheim, a Carnegie Endowment for International Peace scholar, joins us this week. He explains why the major European powers have the wherewithal to do it, they just have to muster the will — and Washington has to be marshaled to let go, too.In the first segment, Kelley and Dan talk about Israel's latest moves to finally annex the West Bank for good.More from Stephen Wertheim:Joining NATO won't keep the peace in Ukraine, New York Times, 6/16/23  Europe Must Step up, Foreign Affairs, with Emma Ashford, Joshua Shifrinson, 5/22/23 Iraq and the Pathologies of Primacy: The Flawed Logic That Produced the War Is Alive and Well, Foreign Affairs, 3/17/23 WWII Begins with Forgetting, New York Times, 12/22/22 Tomorrow the World: The Birth of U.S. Global Supremacy, Harvard University Press, 2020. Thank you for reading Crashing the War Party. This post is public so feel free to share it.Thanks for reading Crashing the War Party! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

In the latest issue of Harper's magazine, longtime foreign policy analysts and authors Christopher Layne and Benjamin Schwarz make the argument that the United States basically set up the war in Ukraine through a series of its own foreign interventions and geopolitical meddling in pursuit of global hegemony and dominance that went well beyond NATO expansion. They build this case that Russia had not only been the target of American hubris but had been watching the U.S. with growing uneasiness in other actions — the invasion of Panama in 1989, the bombing of Serbia in 1999, its regime change wars in Iraq and Libya. We talk to them about why they chose to write this essay, risking criticism as Russian apologists, and their fears about where this war is going.In the first segment, Kelley & Dan talk about a new Costs of War report that finds that upwards of 4.6 million deaths worldwide can be attributed directly or indirectly to America's post-9/11 wars.More from Christopher Layne & Benjamin Schwarz:Why are we in Ukraine: on the dangers of American Hubris, Harper's, May 2023. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

The United States has over 750 military bases, installations, and outposts across 80 countries in the world. For decades, Americans have been told that the bases were necessary to protect U.S. interests, defend our allies, and keep the liberal world order safe. After World War II and throughout the Cold War, those arguments resonated. But the  Iron Curtain is gone and technology today makes it unnecessary to stage massive amounts of ordnance, planes, and servicemembers everywhere, all the time, to respond to potential security crises. This week we talk to Lawfare managing editor Tyler McBrien about his recent article on how there seems to be a slow shift in thinking on this score, and the efforts by some to get the U.S. military out of their countries for good.In the first segment, Kelley and Dan talk about last week's G7 meeting and the Biden administration's continued attempts to coerce and cajole Asian countries to get on board with its anti-China agenda. More from Tyler McBrien:Unsealed Surveillance Court Document Reveals 702 Misuse, Lawfare, 5/19Why the U.S. Should Close Its Overseas Military Bases, Foreign Policy, 5/16Biden Administration Issues Revised Conventional Arms Transfer Policy, Lawfare, 2/23 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

For a month now, the so-called Discord leaks have shown us a whole new dimension of the war in Ukraine — how Washington really feels about the much-anticipated Ukraine counter-offensive, how Zelensky has been trapped between hardliners and his Western patrons, and how not all of our partners and allies are on board equally in the US policy in Ukraine. This week we talk to Jacobin reporter and analyst Branko Marcetic on what he is reading between the lines, as well as the difficulty in covering the war with a persistent lack of clarity regarding battlefield numbers and data. He also discusses his recent article on the futility of economic sanctions on American "adversaries" — how they more often than not, don't work, and end up being a form of "collective punishment."In the first segment, Kelley and Dan talk about those surprise high-level U.S. talks with China, Zelenksy's outburst against the Washington Post, Trump's Town Hall, and Washington accusing South Africa of sending weapons to Russia.More from Marcetic:Mainstream Media Doesn't Care That the CIA May Have Helped Cause 9/11, Jacobin, 5/13US Sanctions Are Brutal and Inhumane. And They Don't Work. Jacobin, 5/9 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

The US has hoped and wished and in the last 12 years backed armed opposition efforts to depose Syrian President Bashar Assad. After a bloody war that has left the country in virtual ruins, Assad remains in power. Not only that, but Arab leaders are now bringing him back into the regional fold. The U.S. isn't happy, but what can it do? Joshua Landis, University of Oklahoma professor and Director of the school's Center of Middle East Studies, joins Dan and Kelley this week to talk about one thing that should happen, and that's the lifting of crippling sanctions on the Syrian people. Josh talks about that and Middle East regional dynamics, including China's growing influence and Washington's reaction. In the first segment, Kelley and Dan talk about more Washington disappointment, as India just isn't playing ball, at least not the game the Biden Administration wants to play.Recently from Joshua Landis:US should encourage Arab, Turkish normalization with Syria, Responsible Statecraft, 4/7/23 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

Washington is obsessed with reading tea leaves — on politics, policy, social cues, and diplomatic dances. And so is the case with the much anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive this spring. Will it happen? If so, would it change the course of the war? Does Russia have the juice not only to repel it but to launch its own successful bid for more territory? We talk again to Anatol Lieven, former war correspondent, author, and Eurasia expert at the Quincy Institute about what he thinks, given his recent travels to Ukraine just a month ago.In the first segment, Kelley and Daniel talk about Biden's diplomatic strong-arming of our Asian allies in South Korea and the Philippines, as the leaders of both countries came to Washington in the last week to forge military ties amid the administration's continuing effort to "confront" the Chinese "threat" in the South China Sea.More from Anatol Lieven:The Rise and Role of Ukrainian Ethnic Nationalism, The Nation, 4/17/23Crimea Has Become a Frankenstein's Monster, Foreign Policy, 4/11/23Pentagon leak reinforces what we already know: US-NATO in it to win, Responsible Statecraft, 4/10/23 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

The political and security situation in Sudan is melting down. In Burkino Faso this week, the military dictatorship has been blamed for the massacre of 60 people. Security vacuums in Chad and Mali are attracting business from the Wagner Group, the notorious Russian private military contractor. It seems all over Africa, especially in places where the West and the U.S. have their fingerprints, things are boiling over. Why?Our guest this week, Stephanie Savell, co-director of The Costs of War Project, just returned from Niger and has plenty of thoughts about how Washington security programs throughout the region have set the stage for the kind of problems we have now and what should be the focus of our attention — and isn't.In the first segment, Dan & Kelley talk about the Biden Administration's weak sauce on Sudan, and the China select committee in the House hosting a war game run by the ultimate military-industrial think tank, the Center for a New American Security. More from Stephanie Savell:The 2001 Authorization for the Use of Military Force: a Comprehensive Look at Where and How it's been Used, Costs of War Project This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

The New York Times recently declared that the Ukraine War had brought NATO back from the virtual dead. In other words, the alliance has new purpose, which means more troops, more weapons, and more U.S. leadership for the unforeseeable future. This week, Kelley and Dan talk to CATO's Justin Logan about why this is folly, and that there is no reason why Europe needs the U.S. or even an "emboldened NATO" to take on the burden of its own security. In fact, the security situation would remain volatile — or worse — if NATO continues to serve as an expanding, agitating presence vis-a-vis Russia in the region today.In the first segment, Dan & Kelley talk about how French President Emmanuel Macron has been lambasted by Europeans and Americans alike for having the temerity to suggest that Europe has its own interests apart from America when it comes to China and security.MORE from Justin Logan:Uncle Sucker: Why U.S. Efforts at Defense Burden Sharing Fail, Cato Institute, 3/7/23 NATO will live forever, until it doesn't, Responsible Statecraft, 2/22/23 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

Washington's impulse to do something has created a foreign policy consensus that relies on the American military being everywhere, all at once, and all things to everyone in the world. Looking at today's headlines, it would be easy to see how the long arm of U.S. primacy is totally stretched — and becoming more ineffective every day. Syndicated columnist Daniel DePetris talks to us this week about a number of hotspots across the world — from Haiti to the Taiwan Strait — applying some common sense and restraint and talking a bit about what it's like to be on the "wrong side" of today's critical debates.In the first segment, Kelley and Dan discuss the massive Pentagon leaks and muse over who could be behind them, given that their revelations are highly embarrassing to all sides — U.S., Russia, and Ukrainian included.More from Daniel DePetris:Biden was right to withdraw troops from Afghanistan, Chicago Tribune (paywall), 4/10/23Don't Press the Panic Button on Saudi-Chinese Ties, Newsweek, 4/7/2023What to do about Haiti? Newsweek, 3/23/23Ron DeSantis's nonexistent isolationism, The Washington Examiner, 3/19/23 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

Last week the Biden Administration authorized airstrikes on reported Iranian strongholds in eastern Syria in retaliation for an earlier drone attack that left one American contractor and several others — including U.S. servicemembers — wounded. There have been at least 80 attacks on U.S. military personnel there since 2021 and they don't seem to be stopping. We talk to (Ret.) Army Lt. Col. Daniel Davis, who has been raising the same alarms and questions for several years now: why are we keeping our troops in harm's way in Syria? What is the strategy? Why hasn't the Biden Administration been called on the carpet to explain it? In the first segment, Dan & Kelley talk about VP Harris's trip to Africa and Kim Jong Un's dangerous cries for attention. More from Daniel Davis:What is Ukraine Getting for $100 Billion? Business Insider, 1/10/23 Biden's Endgame Shouldn't Be Victory for Ukraine, Foreign Policy, w/ Tulsi Gabbard, 6/27/22Our troops are targets in Syria. Why is Biden keeping them there? Responsible Statecraft, 10/28/21 Eleventh Hour in 2020 America: How America's foreign policy got jacked up — and how the next Administration can fix it (September 2020) This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

In recent days and weeks, we've seen what appears to be serious examples of Arab countries opening up geopolitical avenues — as well as relations — with rivals and even adversaries. This would include Iran and Saudi Arabia's announcement that they were not only talking but reopening embassies in each other's countries for the first time in over a decade, Arab normalization with Israel, and even bringing Bashar Assad of Syria back into the fold. This is all being done irrespective of U.S. help or intervention. If anything, outside powers like China are playing a role, much to Washington's chagrin. Here to talk about the implications of this on U.S. foreign policy and ongoing crises like the war in Yemen, is Annelle Sheline, Middle East research fellow at the Quincy Institute.In the first segment, Kelley and Dan talk about the recent AUKUS nuclear sub-agreement and how the U.S. continues to build blocs against China in the Pacific.More from Annelle Sheline:Exit Yemen Now to Assist a Fragile Peace -- American Prospect, 3/8/23What Congress Needs to Know about the Truce in Yemen, w/ Hassan El-Tayyab -- Inkstick Media, 12/5/22It's Time to Cut Off Arms Sales to the Saudi Regime, w/ William Hartung -- The Nation, 11/15/22 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

In this special episode, we talk to veteran, author, and professor emeritus Andrew Bacevich, who was an early critic of the Bush Administration's folly in Iraq. As a Vietnam veteran, he easily recognized the crusader path of contemporary military officials and the deployment of the American missionary ethos that kept us entrenched in that war for a decade (we still have troops there today). We share some recollections on this 20-year anniversary of the war, and some thoughts on America's continuing foreign policy follies, this week.More from Andrew Bacevich:The self-deceived deceivers of war, Boston Globe, 3/13/23The Reckoning that Wasn't, Foreign Affairs, 2/28/23In the Virtues of Whataboutism, Tom Dispatch, 2/14/23Paths of Dissent: Soldiers Speak out Against America's Misguided Wars (Macmillan Press, 2022) This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

Professor Chris Fettweis has spent the better part of his career studying and teaching about how great powers remain great powers and how hard they work to stay on top. He talks to Kelley and Dan this week about how dominant powers and empires get paranoid and worry about their reputations and credibility, and sometimes that skews their decision making skills. He discusses, too, his thoughts on the foreign policy blob and why we can't seem to have rational conversations over U.S. national interests. In the first segment, Dan & Kelley talk about the ongoing Nord Stream sabotage mystery and a new theory by the New York Times about who did it this week.More from Chris Fettweis:The Beliefs of the Blob  — Orbis, Volume 67, Issue 1, 2023The Pursuit of Dominance: 2000 Years of Superpower Grand Strategy, Oxford University Press, December 2022. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

Author and columnist Bonnie Kristian joins us this week to talk about the prospects of a Ron DeSantis policy, and more specifically, what a Ron DeSantis foreign policy might look like. She did a deep dive on this for the New York Times, and addresses the Florida governor's recent comments on Ukraine, his set up as a potential "restraint" rival of Trump, and his questionable positions on other hot-button issues, like Iran.In the first segment, Kelley and Dan talk about the Biden Administration's accusations that China is "considering" giving lethal weapons to Russia for its war in Ukraine, and at the same time China issues its own "peace plan" for Ukraine.More from Bonnie Kristian:Ron DeSantis Could Decide Republicans' Foreign Policy, New York Times, 1/9/23The War in Ukraine Has No End in Sight, Reason, 2/24/23Why Washington must tread carefully with Taiwan, Asia Times, 8/30/22 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

Over a year ago, Lyle Goldstein, director of Asian engagement at Defense Priorities, came on Crashing the War Party and was one of the few foreign policy analysts warning that Russia was likely to invade Ukraine, pointing out that the seeming US-NATO resistance to a more diplomatic path could lead to what we are seeing today. He talks to Kelley and Dan on the anniversary of the Feb. 24 Russian invasion about the current battlefield conditions — which are not good for either side — and where we could be headed in 2023. We also talk to Lyle about Washington's increasingly dangerous approach to China and Taiwan.In the first segment, Kelley and Dan talk about the Israelis' latest push for a US war with Iran. Considering that Washington's energy and attention are stretched over a potential two-front war in Ukraine and China, what are the Israelis thinking? More from Lyle Goldstein:Is the Ukraine War Moving Toward a Korean Solution? Responsible Statecraft, 1/30/23A Taiwan Conflict Would Look Nothing Like Ukraine, Unherd, 12/27/22 Cuban missile crisis holds lessons for U.S. and China, Nikkei Asia, 11/6/22 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

In his recent book, Pain Is Weakness Leaving the Body: A Marine's Unbecoming, U.S. Marine Corps veteran Lyle J. Rubin threads his five-year experience — as a candidate in Marine officer school and serving in Afghanistan, as well as his shift in thinking about the Global War on Terror, the U.S. military as an institution, and his opposition to militarized U.S. foreign policy today — into a poignant memoir. He shares this and more with us in a special conversation this week. In the first segment, Kelley & Dan talk about Nikki Haley's prospects for president and the hawkish baggage she brings to the table from the Trump administration.Lyle J. Rubin bioReviews of Pain Is Weakness Leaving the Body: A Marine's Unbecoming in The Nation, The Washington Post, and Current Affairs. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

A protracted war could end up destroying Ukraine. A wider confrontation between two nuclear powers — U.S. and Russia — could lead to World War III. So what to do to stop it? We talk to Rand Corp. grand strategist Miranda Priebe, who just co-authored a powerful new paper promoting concrete measures for bringing both Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table in order to end the madness before the worst can happen. In the first segment, Dan & Kelley talk about China Balloon-gate and how the Washington frenzy could very well blow us into a war, if cooler heads don't prevail. But where are they?More from Miranda Priebe:Avoiding a Long War: U.S. Policy and the Trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict, with Sam Charap, Rand Corporation, 1/25/23Don't Rule Out Diplomacy in Ukraine, with Sam Charap, Foreign Affairs, 10/28/22 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

Journalist Ethan Paul answers his own question with an affirmative "yes!" on our show this week as we discuss the fever swamp of saber-rattling and chicken-littling in Washington today. What does it all mean? Where will it lead us? On the former, we talk about invested interests in ballooning the defense industry and Pentagon budgets, the political advantage of looking "tough on China," and the conflation of economic and military "threats." On the former, Paul warns that the threat inflation could lead to actual war.In the first segment, Kelley and Dan serve up some tasty headlines: Israel drone strikes in Iran, the new call for F-16s for Ukraine, the impact of Russian sanctions on Mongolia, and Saudi executions. More from Ethan Paul:Biden chooses to keep Trump China tariffs right where they are, Responsible Statecraft, 10/5/21What Biden's Top China Theorist Gets Wrong -- Lawfare, 10/7/21 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

The last two months have seen the U.S. cross what appeared to be its own lines against giving advanced weapons to Ukraine. First, the announcement to send a Patriot Missile battery to the embattled country; then this week, news that within a week, the administration seemingly changed its mind about sending its most sophisticated tanks — the M-1 Abrams — into the battlefield. Suzanne Loftus, author of the forthcoming book, "Russia, China, and the West in the Post-Cold War Era: The Limits of Liberal Universalism," joins us to talk about whether this is a slow escalation to direct conflict with Russia, and what might be a better alternative to bringing about an end to the war.In the first segment, Dan and Kelley talk about the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies' plan for regime change in Iran, and this week's US-Israel military drills to "show force" in the Middle East.More from Suzanne Loftus:Russia, China and the West in the Post-Cold War Era: The Limits of Liberal Universalism (forthcoming April 2023)No one will win a protracted war in Ukraine, Responsible Statecraft, 1/21/23 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

There is no doubt that the war in Ukraine — as brutally destructive it has been for the Ukrainian people — is a boon to America's top defense contractors: think Lockheed, Boeing, Raytheon, Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics. As our guest Bill Hartung, author of Prophets of War: Lockheed Martin and the Making of the Military Industrial Complex, points out, the U.S. weapons pipeline to Ukraine has not only allowed these companies to amp up production lines, but they are getting all sorts of regulatory short-cuts and allowances from Congress to do it. This includes budgets and favorable measures they had been asking for long before the start of the war. The expected result: more potential for corruption, waste, and even less competition in the defense space than before, says Hartung. In the first segment, Kelley and Dan talk about the newly announced security alliance between NATO and the EU, all but guaranteeing that the US and its guns aren't going anywhere.More from Bill Hartung:Hawks blow a lot of hot air over proposed budget cuts, Responsible Statecraft, 1/10/23Don't use the war in Ukraine to permanently expand the war industry, Forbes, 12/2/22How the arms industry scams the taxpayer, with Julia Gledhill, Tom Dispatch, 9/11/22 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

The war in Ukraine will end with a negotiated settlement (no one knows how or when) but whatever it will be will likely forge the basis of a new European security order if not an international one, says Yale historian Michael Brenes. What would that order look like? He suggests it should be one in which the U.S. and other great powers play a role in eventually bringing the Global South into a multilateral embrace of shared national interests and around 'progressive' values beyond security — like economic development, health care, social justice, and climate change. Can this work, or is it just pie in the sky? Dan and Kelley ask him to explain. In the first segment, they discuss whether the Republicans have what it takes to tackle the bloat and corruption of escalating defense budgets.More Michael Brenes: Wealth for All Nations: The war in Ukraine and the making of a new global order, Warfare and Welfare, 1/4/23The Future of Restraint after Ukraine, Foreign Exchanges, 12/19/22For Might and Right: Cold War Defense Spending and the Remaking of American Democracy, University of Massachusetts Press (2020) This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

The U.S. military has over 270,000 troops currently deployed across the globe, including in 17 countries that the public up until now didn't even know about. Our guest this week, Ben Friedman, a senior analyst with Defense Priorities, takes on the Washington shibboleth that we couldn't possibly start bringing any of those troops home — particularly the thousands in the Middle East and Europe — because they would leave "power vacuums." He argues that even if there is a "security gap" left in our place, there are regional powers that can step into the breach. In the first segment, Daniel and Kelley talk about the demise of 'interim president' Juan Guaido of Venezuela.More from Ben Friedman:When courting quasi-allies like Ukraine becomes a moral hazard, with Natalie Armbruster, Responsible Statecraft, 12/28/22Don't fear vacuum: it's safe to go home, Defense Priorities, 12/7/22The  case for getting rid of the National Security Strategy, with Justin Logan, War on the Rocks, 11/4/22 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

Congress had a chance to assert its war powers and end U.S. assistance to Saudi Arabia in the Yemen War. But President Biden helped to strangle the effort in the cradle and a vote in December was never held. Quincy Institute Middle East expert Annelle Sheline joins us this week to talk about what happened, and Senator Bernie Sanders' pledge to bring the issue back in early 2023. Kelley and Dan also take stock of the two major issues in 2022 foreign policy — Russia/Ukraine and China — and how the Washington establishment is failing us on both fronts, pushing us dangerously towards a Great Power conflict we cannot win.More from Annelle Sheline:Delayed war powers vote risks further suffering in Yemen, Responsible Statecraft, Dec. 14, 2022Biden blesses MBS immunity for Khashoggi murder, Responsible Statecraft, Nov. 18, 2022The Yemen War in Numbers: Saudi Escalation and U.S. Complicity, Quincy Institute, March 22, 2022. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

On this episode, Kelley interviews the great podcast host, author, and anti-war activist Scott Horton. The two engage in a wide-ranging discussion about Ukraine, the war party in Washington, and why right-leaning combat veterans are increasingly joining efforts to hold the government Constitutionally responsible for sending men and women off to war. Always funny, but deadly serious, Scott uses his encyclopedic knowledge of U.S. foreign policy to indict the players, poseurs, and profit-makers who made 2022 another dangerous year.More from Scott Horton:Fool's Errand: Time to End the War in Afghanistan (2017)Enough Already : Time to End the War on Terrorism (2017)Hotter than the Sun: Time to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (2022) This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

The Ukrainian people -- all of the Ukrainian people -- need catharsis and reconciliation before healing. When they can begin, in the face of ongoing war with Russia, is the question we put to Ukraine scholar Nicolai Petro, whose book, "The Tragedy of Ukraine: What Classical Greek Tragedy Can Teach Us About Conflict Resolution"  is released next week. We talk about the history, the competing identities, and the institutional barriers within Ukraine that have made the East-West conflict what it is today. Dan and Kelley also discuss Russia's decision to ditch nuclear talks and how the one nuclear treaty left between Washington and Moscow could be on its way out forever. More from Nicolai Petro:The tragedy of Crimea -- Responsible Statecraft, 11/24/22Prospects for Peace in Ukraine: The Non-Military Aspect (VIDEO), Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs, April 7, 2022. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

Ever wonder what it takes to build an American empire? George Mason University professor and Chris Coyne, who just released his new Monsters to Destroy: The Folly of American Empire and the Paths to Peace, talks to Kelley and Dan about the building blocks of the so-called US liberal world order, which he argues is powered by a leviathan of good soldiers — autocratic, authoritarian, conformist stewards of imperialism and American primacy — the very opposite of the 'liberal' face they want the world, and fellow Americans, to see. In the first segment, our hosts talk about Israel's constant push for a US war with Iran and calls for a multinational peacekeeping force in Haiti.More from Chris Coyne:Manufacturing Militarism: U.S. Government Propaganda in the War on Terror, with Abigail Hall, 2021Reagan Was Right: Big Government Corrupts the Military Too -- The National Interest, 9/9/2022Tyranny Comes Home: The Domestic Fate of U.S. Militarism, with Abigail Hall, 2018  This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

We can finally say that Republicans will take the majority in the House of Representatives in January. So what does this mean for foreign policy — especially the new $37 billion package President Biden wants to push through the lame duck session this December? The Washington Examiner's politics editor Jim Antle joins us to break down how this super-slim majority will actually give an edge to Republicans who have been critical of the aid and in favor of a more restrained foreign policy. He discusses the different flavors of these GOP critics, and how this may be setting up a real fight for who defines a “conservative foreign policy.” In the first segment Kelley & Dan talk (optimistically!) about that big face-to-face between China's Xi-Jinping and President Biden at the G20. More from Jim Antle:Biden survives midterm elections, though his agenda's fate is unclear —The Washington Examiner, 11/15/22Are Republicans really poised to put brakes on Ukraine aid? — Responsible Statecraft, 11/7/22Are Republicans losing their appetite for the war effort against Russia? — The Week, 5/22/22 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

What a week! As of right now it's still not clear which party will be running the Congress after Tuesday's competitive midterm elections. We talk to Just Foreign Policy's Erik Sperling about the foreign policy implications of a new potential Republican majority in the House and/or Senate — and which issues might be affected by the change, including the hottest one of the moment, Ukraine. We also discuss the White House's new “diplomacy talk” with Russia. In the first segment, Kelley and Dan talk about Bush-era interventionists and neocons trying get into the act by refashioning themselves under the rubric of “conservative statecraft.” This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

Over 200 years ago, then-U.S. Secretary of State John Quincy Adams warned how overseas militarism, even in the name of liberty, could change the very nature of the republic: "She (America) well knows that by once enlisting under other banners than her own, were they even the banners of foreign independence, she would involve herself beyond the power of extrication, in all the wars of interest and intrigue, of individual avarice, envy, and ambition, which assume the colors and usurp the standard of freedom. The fundamental maxims of her policy would insensibly change from liberty to force." So how was JQA so prescient? We talk to author and president of the John Quincy Adams Society David Hendrickson about his new book and how these "maxims" have gone so far off the rails in today's foreign policy. In our first segment, Kelley and Dan talk about U.S.-trained commandos fighting for Russia, the dead JCPOA deal, B-52s in Australia, and more under-the-radar headlines.More from Hendrickson:Freedom, Independence, Peace: John Quincy Adams and American Foreign Policy (2022)Europe's energy disaster -- The American Conservative, 9/13/22Why this economic war on Russia breaks all the rules of the game -- Responsible Statecraft, 3/23/22 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

This week, Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman reiterated the U.S. Nuclear Posture Review, which states that "the United States would only consider the employment of nuclear weapons in extreme circumstances to defend the vital interests of the United States, its allies, and partners. Extreme circumstances could include significant non-nuclear strategic attacks." Natalie Armbruster of Defense Priorities joins us this week to talk about who is formally a US ally — and not — and how over the years Washington has built a web of entangling alliances of different formalities and caliber, drawing the US into fights and causing others that have no real basis in the U.S. national interest. In the second segment, Kelley & Dan talk about the U.S. 101st Airborne Division on the border with Ukraine, and the progressives going wobbly on diplomacy.More from Natalie: Who is an ally and why does it matter? — w/ Ben Friedman, Defense Priorities, 10/12/22The 2023 Defense Authorization risks more of the same — Instick Media, 8/4/22Biden shouldn't put American lives on the line to defend the United Arab Emirates — Business Insider, 6/14/22Apply the logic of the Afghanistan withdrawal to Syria — Defense Priorities, 3/7/2022 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

While all eyes have been turned on Ukraine and China, a nuclear threat continues on the Korean peninsula and in the last few weeks, tensions have gotten a lot worse. The U.S. called North Korea's accusations that Washington and South Korea have been provoking the North "baloney." Meanwhile Pyongyang has been testing missiles and artillery closer to its border with the South, while Seoul and the U.S. have continued their biggest joint war games in four years. Prolific writer and Cato Institute fellow Doug Bandow joins us on the show today to talk about the potential of Kim Jong Un going nuclear and how the Biden administration has lost all juice for addressing what could be a real military conflagration on China's doorstep.More from Doug Bandow:Xi plays Mao without the Madness -- The American Conservative, 10/20/22Who attacked Nord Stream 2? -- 19FortyFive, 10/14/22Washington huffs and puffs — but its adversaries aren't shaking -- Responsible Statecraft, 10/11/22 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com