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Send Us A Message! Let us know what you think.Topic #1:  RNZ 13th of May - Lull in property values present home buyers 'rare opportunity'Topic #2: Stuff 15th of May - People selling their home within three years could be facing a loss, new report findsTopic #3: Interest.co.nz  15th of May - Housing sales and selling prices both edged lower in April, with REINZ saying buyers are being pickyTopic #4: RNZ 15th of May - Falling interest saving home loan borrowers $2.2b, bank saysTopic #5: Oneroof 14th of May -Tony Alexander: Reasons to be cheerful - but don't expect a boom anytime soonSupport the show*Nothing from this episode should be taken as individual financial advice. *Property Advice Group Limited trading as Property Apprentice has been granted a FULL Licence with the Financial Markets Authority of New Zealand. (FSP Number: FSP157564) Debbie Roberts | Financial Adviser (FSP221305) For our Public disclosure statement please go to our website or you may request a copy free of charge.

We are crossing the ditch to New Zealand today to look at the latest home price data from the REINZ, and the latest inflation data from the RBNZ. The New Zealand property market experienced a relatively quiet month in December 2024. Actually, sales increased by 1.8% nationwide compared to December 2023, rising from 5,420 to … Continue reading "Kiwis Hold Their Breath On Property, And Rates."

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the world seems to be bracing for the uncertainties of the incoming US Administration, but it is starting from a generally resilient position (although that doesn't seem to include New Zealand).But first, the week ahead will be dominated locally by our Q4 CPI release. Markets expect a 2.1% year-on-year rate, only marginally less than the Q3 rate of 2.2%. We will also get another full dairy auction on Wednesday too. The REINZ will release its December data sometime, maybe Tuesday. And we can expect other banks to react to ASB's home loan rate reductions.Elsewhere, there will be more PMI releases, GDP releases for South Korea and Taiwan, and rate decisions from Norway, Turkey, Malaysia, and the big one from Japan at the end of the week. Data out of Australia will be minor this coming week. But all the while, important earnings reports will flow on Wall StreetOver the weekend, China said new home prices in 70 cities dropped by an average -5.3% in December from a year ago, slowing from a -5.7% decline in the previous month. This was the softest fall since August but is the 18th consecutive month of decreases. "Second hand home" prices fell faster, and there were no cities where prices rose. The string of decreases come despite efforts from Beijing to reduce the impacts of a prolonged property weakness, efforts such as lowering mortgage rates and cutting home buying costs.China released data that showed electricity production was only up +0.6% from a year ago in December. For the whole of 2024 the rise was +4.6%. The year ended weakly with neither November nor December rising more than +1%. This is a telling indicator of real activity. (This is the metric then-to-be Premier Li Keqiang famously referred to after dismissing their GDP results.)But they said industrial production was up +6.2% in December. Retail sales were up +3.7%. And through all this they claimed Q4-2024 GDP rose +5.4% and its fastest pace of the year. Frankly, that is hard to see based on the components that make it up. Apparently it is based on export growth, but as good as that is, it is hard to see that behind the claimed growth. But the links here, plus this one, and they should be enough to inspect their data and for you to make your own judgement.Singapore's exports surged +9% in December from the same month a year ago, after a +3.4% gain in November. This exceeded the +7.4% rise in November and is the fastest pace in export growth since August. A key driver is a sharp rebound in non-electronic product sales.Globally, the January update of the IMF's World Economic Outlook estimated global growth to be +3.3% in 2025, a slight increase from the 3.2% forecast in October. The rise was driven by the US which offset downgrades in other major economies. Growth for 2026 is also expected at 3.3%, unchanged from the previous projection.They say the US faces upside risks that could bolster growth in the near term, but other nations remain exposed to downside risks amid heightened policy uncertainty. The US economy is now forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2025 (vs 2.2% in October), and China's GDP growth was revised slightly higher to 4.6% (vs 4.5%).Conversely, the Euro Area's growth projection was downgraded to 1% (vs 1.2%), while Japan's growth forecast remains steady at 1.1%. Projections for India's GDP growth were maintained at 6.5%. Australia is expected to grow +2.1% in 2025 and +2.2% in 2026. New Zealand doesn't get a mention in these forecasts.Underscoring the US growth upgrade, American housing starts surged by almost +16% from the previous month to an annualised rate of 1.5 mln units in December, the most since March 2021 and well above the expected 1.32 mln level.And industrial production in the US was up an outsized +0.9% in December and well above the +0.3% expected rise to the strongest increase since February. It was helped by the end of strikes, and a jump in the production of aircraft.But there is a bump in the road about to start: the latest US debt limit deal is about to expire very soon. The new US Administration will have to grapple with that in its early days. Trump wants no debt limits to constrain his tax cuts and spending plans, but his hardline conservative supporters won't agree to more deficits. This will be interesting.Trump has already had an effect on the US Federal Reserve, getting them to withdraw from the 144 member NGFS. of which the RBNZ.And separately, we should probably note that the aluminium price is at a two month high, and heading toward a two year high.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.62%, and up +2 bps from this time Saturday.The price of gold will start today at US$2702/oz and down -US$14 from Saturday.Oil prices are down -50 USc at just under US$78/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just under US$81.The Kiwi dollar starts today just under 55.9 USc and down -10 bps from this time Saturday. Against the Aussie we unchanged at 90.1 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 54.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 66.8 and down -10 bps from yesterday, but up +20 bps from a week ago.The bitcoin price starts today at US$104,704 and down -0.3% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.1%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news of a large number of key new releases to end the year.It might be the final full week before the summer holidays (in New Zealand), but there will be a lot going on and a lot to follow. Here of course it is the week when corporates and the government release their 'bad news' stories in the hope people are distracted. Then the REINZ will release its November data. And there will be a full dairy auction on Wednesday morning. Thursday will bring our Q3 GDP, expected to confirm we have been in recession.But there is not a lot on the card from Australia this week, other than a consumer sentiment survey from Westpac which we need to keep an eye on.Globally, the big set piece will be the US Fed's monetary policy review on Thursday NZT. A -25 bps cut is expected there. And that comes in the middle of a large raft of important US data updates. China has a good chunky set too. Japan will chime in with its own, including their rate review where now, no change is anticipated. There are other central bank reviews as well, from Sweden (uncertain), Norway (no change), Indonesia (-25 bps), Taiwan (no change), Thailand (no change) and the Philippines (-25 bps). Russia is also expected to push its policy rate up by +200 bps to 23%. Canada and the EU will have their own key data releases.In the meantime we start the week with global interest rates on the move up and the US rate inversions have now vanished. Except in China where there is a rush on for the safety of Government bonds which is driving down yields to record lows. And positive-sloping yield curves are returning.As we noted, the US Fed is expected to cut rates by -25 bps at its December meeting next week on Thursday NZT, bringing the benchmark range to 4.25%-4.50%, and a full percentage point drop since September. Economists anticipate slower cuts ahead, with only three reductions projected for 2025. Those cuts may be delayed if inflation remains above the Fed's target.As the Trump team prepares for the transition, its anti-regulation focus is coming into view. They are seeking candidates to eliminate or eviscerate the FDIC (sought by big banks), and rid themselves of car-crash reporting (as sought by Elon Musk). The billionaire sharks are going after consumer protections.Canadian manufacturing sales were up strongly in October, their best growth spurt in nearly two years. That made them +1.4% higher than the same month a year ago. While that isn't quite besting inflation, the recent moves up will be encouraging them.Across the Pacific, Chinese banks extended just ¥580 bln in new yuan loans in November, less than half the same month a year ago, and nearly half of what was expected. This is the lowest new lending for a November since 2012. The decline took place despite the aggressive monetary stimulus measures from the PBoC in late September in an attempt to halt the property market downturn. There have also been much higher levels of local government debt issued in that time too. Poor credit demand in China is saying a lot about Beijing's management of their economy and its prospects.President Xi and his top team have been meeting in their big set-piece Central Economic Work Conference, and what is glaringly obvious from this so far, is that they don't know what to do, and financial markets are sensing that with their pullbacks.But it sounds like they are preparing to cut both key policy rates and their reserve requirement ratio in 2025, according to a report here.EU industrial production is still in its decline phase, now stretching to 18 consecutive months. It will be little comfort to them that the October decline was smaller than the prior month.In Australia, a report suggest that auction clearance rate in Sydney have fallen sharply over the weekend to be just on 50%, a long way lower than the about-80% level of just a few weeks ago.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.40%, up +1 bp from this time Saturday. But that is quite a move for the week, up +26 bps.The price of gold will start today at US$2647/oz and down -US$11 from Saturday.Oil prices are firmish but still just over US$71/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is still just on US$74.50. The Kiwi dollar starts today still just under 57.6 USc and unchanged from Saturday, but down -70 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 54.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.6 to be unchanged from yesterday, and down -40 bps from a week ago.The bitcoin price starts today at US$103,011 and up +1.5% from this time Saturday. A week ago it was at US$101,044. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.4%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news central bank rate cuts are expected this week - from some, but not all. And Shayne Elliott may be about to end his time at ANZ.But first in the week ahead, most eyes will be on the American Consumer Price Index, Then tomorrow (Tuesday) the RBA will review its cash rate target, and is expected to make no change a 4.35% and staying above the RBNZ's 4.25%. Central banks in Canada and the EU as well as Switzerland will review as well. The Canadians are expected to cut by -25 bps, the ECB by -50 bps and the Swiss by -25 bps. Inflation data from India is due too. In China, they deliver CPI, PPI, trade data, and New Yuan Loans data. Back in Australia, we will follow their November labour report and the NAB business confidence report. And perhaps we will get our own REINZ real estate market report for November at the end of this week (although no actual date is set yet).Over the weekend, the headlines say the US economy added +227,000 jobs in November, compared to upwardly revised +36,000 in October which was heavily influenced by Boeing strikes and the disruptions caused by Hurricanes Helene and Milton. The November rise was above market expectations of +200,000. Employment trended up in health care, leisure and hospitality, government, and social assistance while the retail trade lost jobs. Meanwhile, the jobless rate inched up to 4.2%. (This move probably raised the chance of a -25 bps rate cut at the Fed's next meeting, next week, and taking the lower bound top 4.25%.)Looking behind these headlines, total employer payrolls rose to 160.6 mln, a +525,000 rise from October and a +2.2 mln rise from a year ago. This is a significant swelling of employer payrolls. More broadly, their household survey has the employed workforce at 161.5 mln (which includes the unincorporated self-employed). But that survey is not growing in 'actual' terms even if it is in seasonally-adjusted terms.Average hourly pay is up +4.0% in November from a year ago. Average weekly earnings were up +3.7% as overtime worked slipped. These are better gains than expected.This overall bullish labour market report was reinforced by the University of Michigan sentiment survey for December which rose for a fifth consecutive month to its highest level since April. Current conditions sentiment drove this. But rather than a sign of strength, this rise was primarily due to a perception that purchasing now would enable buyers to avoid future price increases. Consumers see inflation trouble ahead.So perhaps they bought more using personal debt? Total American consumer debt jumped +$19.2 bln in October, when a +$10 bln rise was expected. It accelerating from a downwardly revised +$3.2 bln rise in a month earlier. This marked the fastest pace of growth since July, equating to an annual growth rate of +4.5%, up from just +0.8% in September. Revolving credit, including credit card debt, saw a notable +14% increase, the largest since February, following a smaller +1.4% gain in September. Meanwhile, non-revolving credit, which includes car and student loans, grew by just +1.1%, up only slightly from +0.5% the prior monthCanada also released employment data for November overnight. Their employment rose +54,000, almost all of it full-time jobs. But their jobless rate rose to 6.8% and a seven year high, as more people entered their labour market as their participation rate rose.India reviewed its policy rate late Friday and made no change, although they did cut their reserve ratio for liquidity support reasons.In China, home loan interest rates are being driven down into the 3% range (depending on borrower financials) and there is talk that they may fall below that in coming months. There is widespread 'news talk' about how their housing market (and land sales to developers) are recovering, but the real evidence is yet to emerge.But their logistics index indicates improvements in their overall economic activity, reaching a seven year high.In Australia, media reports suggest that Shayne Elliott will step down this week as CEO of ANZ, after nine years in the role.The OECD has released its latest update of its Economic Outlook. While it doesn't specifically cover New Zealand, it does point out in a release note that tensions are creating headwinds for international trade in both advanced and emerging markets, and it will probably get worse. They have a rather stunning chart about trade policy uncertainty, here.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.15%, unchanged from Saturday. The price of gold will start today at US$2633/oz and little-changed from this time Saturday, and down -US$25 in a week.Oil prices are another -50 USc lower at just over US$67/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just over US$71/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$68.50 and US$72.50 respectively, so down a -US$1.50 since then.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 58.3 USc and unchanged from this time Saturday but down almost -1 from this time last week. Against the Aussie we down -10 bps at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we have also held 55.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 68 to be unchanged from Saturday and down -60 bps in a week. We are approaching a six month low, primarily driven by the surging USD.The bitcoin price starts today at US$99,796 and down -1.2% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at +/- 0.9%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

On today's REX Daily Podcast, Dom talks with Lawrence Meredith, EU Ambassador to NZ from the NZ Agricultural Show in Christchurch about NZ's FTA with the EU, the opportunities for NZ through the Horizon Europe initiative and farmer concerns about the EU's regulations requiring exporters to prove their products are deforestation-free... He talks with Charles Bennett from Waitui Wiltshire about why his family have developed a Wiltshire stud, the breed's overall performance and the stud's upcoming ram sale (Nov 26)... He talks with REINZ rural spokesperson Shane O'Brien around the recent lift in farm and lifestyle sales, the reasons behind it and what to expect in the next few months... And he talks with father and son combo Mark and James Taggart from Rapaura Suffolk Stud about James' entry in the sheep competition at the NZ Agricultural Show, his plans for the future and Mark's role in reestablishing the Board Breeder competition at the recent Marlborough A&P Show. Tune in daily for the latest and greatest REX rural content on your favourite streaming platform, visit rexonline.co.nz and follow us on Instagram, Facebook and LinkedIn for more.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news China's battle with deflationary pressures shows no sign of being won.But first, in the week ahead locally, we will get the REINZ result for October some time this week. And September migration data on Wednesday. Internationally, all eyes will be on American consumer and producer inflation data, retail sales, and speeches by Fed officials, as investors seek clues on their monetary policy outlook in the wake of 2nd Trump Presidency.In China, new yuan loans, fixed asset investment, industrial production, retail sales, and the house price index will be all be released this week. In Australia, their October labour force data will come out, the NAB business confidence survey, and Westpac consumer confidence indexes are expected. Finally, we should watch Indian inflation data.Over the weekend, China said its inflation rate came in at +0.3% in the year to October (and half the modest August level), still giving them disinflation as they stare deflation in the face. Deflation is already in producer prices, and it got slightly worse in October, at -2.9%. That's their fastest fall in almost a year. Both movements were small but they are going the wrong way for them.Among the CPI items, we can see that food prices rose +2.9% in the year to October, so households are feeling some noticeable inflation pressure. Costs eased for fresh vegetables but they are still +22% higher than a year ago, fresh fruit was up +4.7% on that same basis, and pork up +14%. Prices fell however for eggs (-2.5%), milk (-1.7%), beef (-13%), and lamb (-5.9%). So not much for us to be encouraged about here..And China has sharply raised (+40%) their local governments' debt ceiling to ¥35.5 tln (NZ$8.3 tln) when they announced the total value of the current program increase will by ¥10 tln (NZ$2.3 tln). But officials did not announce additional measures to directly stimulate domestic demand, probably disappointing markets that had been hoping the package would also help consumers. They did say however they are 'studying' such moves, probably waiting to see the impact of the challenge from Trump.Japanese households aren't feeling all that great either. Household spending fell by -1.1% in September from a year ago, a smaller decline than the -1.9% drop in August and better than market expectations for a -2.1% decrease. This marks the seventh month of reduced household spending in 2024.Foreigners love the place however, not only as tourists, but as investors too, raising their equity investment stakes in each of the past six months.Taiwanese exports rose +8.4% from a year ago in October, building from a +4.5% rise in the previous month. Imports were up +6.5%, a slower rate of increase than we have seen in the prior four months. Robust Taiwanese trade contrasts with what its unfriendly and jealous neighbour is able to achieve,Across the Pacific, Americans remain cautious taking on new personal debt. That rose by only +US$6 bln in September, a slowdown from the almost +$9 bln rise in August and well below the expected +US$14.5 bln increase. Now the average balance is US$23,087, up from US$18,008 four years ago. These are not actually high levels. (The divisor we used is the total population 18 years and older.)For the first time since May 2020, the US Fed saw its balance sheet assets fall below US$7 tln last week. That is a -US$53 bln fall in a month, a -US$2 tln fall since it peaked at US$8.96 tln in April 2022.Before their election, consumer sentiment as tracked by the University of Michigan survey, rose for the fourth consecutive month, rising 3.5% to its highest reading in six months. While current conditions were little changed, the expectations index surged across all dimensions, reaching its highest reading since July 2021.The November WASDE report from the USDA sees 2025 with more world wheat, slightly less coarse grains, and more rice. The world's ability to feed itself seems stable, without unusual price pressures. They expect to import more beef from Oceania. In a change they now expect more US milk production even though cow herd numbers might slip slightly. Access to this market now depends on the incoming capricious Administration.The October Canadian labour market report showed a +14,500 rise in jobs, less than expected. But full-time jobs rose more than +25,500 and part-time jobs slipped -11,000, a virtuous twist.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.31% and up +1 bp from Saturday. A week ago it was at 4.37%.The price of gold will start today at US$2684/oz and down -US$1 from this time Saturday.Oil prices are +50 USc firmer at US$70.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just under US$74/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 59.6 USc and and down -10 bps from this time Saturday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 90.6 AUc. Against the euro we have dipped -10 bps as well to 55.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 68.7, and down -10 bps from Saturday but unchanged from a week ago..The bitcoin price starts today at US$79831 and up +4.9% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.9%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Following the release of the Cordell Construction Cost Index (CCCI) for Q3, Nick and Kelvin the state of the construction market, including a few reasons to be optimistic, though it's fair to say caution should still remain.A quieter week for data also allows the guys to provide an update on what's happening from a listings perspective - both for sale and for rent, plus there's a usual economic round-up (PSI, card sales) and REINZ sales and HPI to digest.Plus, a final wrap of the CPI inflation data which was released and discussed in an extra podcast last week.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

The international corporate reporting season ramps up this week, with numerous heavyweights set to announce earnings. With the S&P 500 in the US sitting at record highs, this will be important for the direction of markets. Some of the highlights in the coming days are likely to include Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, LVMH, Nestle, Netflix, TSMC and Procter & Gamble. It'll be a busy week on the local front, with the September inflation report taking centre stage on Wednesday. This will be important as markets look ahead to the final OCR decision of the year in November. We'll also get the latest housing report from REINZ, as well as the results of another dairy auction, card spending and the ANZ truckometer.

In this show we look at the latest property data from New Zealand, from the REINZ and CoreLogic. The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) released its July 2024 data at the end of August. The national median price decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, from $770,000 to $753,000, and decreased by the same amount month-on-month. … Continue reading "Kiwis See Average 16% Home Price Falls From Peak, But Hopium Ahead!"

This week, off the back of the release of the latest Monthly Chart Pack, Nick and Kelvin discuss the stats of listings on the market, both for sale and for rent. There are so many factors to consider, including migration, investor regulations, local job markets and first home buyer activity and the truth is there's no easy explanation of why the markets are where they are currently at. The latest read of data can help though.Elsewhere there's REINZ latest release to pore over and a bunch of economic data, essentially reiterating the struggling economy.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

There's green shoots returning to the housing market, according to the Real Estate Institute. REINZ data shows the volume of sales rose 14.5 percent year-on-year and nearly 20 percent month-on-month. Infometrics Principal Economist Brad Olsen unpacks what this news means following the recent OCR cut. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's green shoots returning to the housing market, according to the Real Estate Institute. REINZ data shows the volume of sales rose 14.5 percent year-on-year and nearly 20 percent month-on-month. Infometrics Principal Economist Brad Olsen unpacks what this news means following the recent OCR cut. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Following their own BSOD issues amid the CrowdStrike nightmare, the guys finally get a chance to catch up to review the week that was in the property market. As it turns out it was a good chance to take stock of the overall market, amid the release of the latest CoreLogic Monthly Chart Pack and monthly video. REINZ' latest data for June also provided an opportunity to assess the latest movements in Auckland and following the initial reactionary podcast, Nick and Kelvin wrap up the market response to the CPI inflation results for Q2. Upshot - interest rate cuts will be sooner.Lastly, and there'll be more to follow on this one, the new CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index was previewed in a webinar last week, ahead of go live on August 1, so keep a look out for that one.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Latest data from REINZ shows further momentum falls across property sales and prices in New Zealand, as the higher rates continue to squeeze households and dampen the markets. Prices are now 16% below past peaks. https://www.reinz.co.nz/Web/Web/News/News-Articles/Market-updates/REINZ-June-2024-data-property-market-a-little-chilly-amid-economic-challenges.aspx http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Every week seems to be coming with a little bit more hope of relief for mortgage holders and this week is no different. Following the change in tone of the RBNZ's OCR statement last week, we can now add weak economic data in the form of the NZ Activity Index for June, migration turning negative and further weakness for the property market. The construction industry continues to go through tough times too, though at least from a consumers perspective this means the cost to build is decreasing - as the Cordell Cost Construction for Q2 illustrated.All up it's been a busy week of property data, including Reserve Bank data on the tenure of loans chosen by borrowers in May, rental price figures, CoreLogic Buyer Classification for June and hot off the press REINZ sales for June. Plus, Nick supplied RNZ with some data on 'accidental landlords'.That's it on a tough weekend for the English (rugby, football) and a good one for the Spanish (tennis, football, Sail GP)…Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Actualités Locales : - La lune s'est posée pour la deuxième fois au Havre- LiA et L'Amazone s'associent pour proposer les tramways gratuits afin de se rendre à la course de ce dimanche- Les Buveuses de Bières s'associent à Menstru'action pour récolter des fonds pour le lable Menstru'friendly- Gérard Masselin va publier un livre sur l'histoire du sport au Havre et lance un financement participatif- La Fête du Cirque de retour ce weekend à Saint-Romain-de-ColboscEt aujourd'hui, on s'imerge au sein d'un atelier avec le rappeur Reinz et les étudiant.e.s du Master de Création Littéraire de l'ESADHARBonne écoute !

Still pretty fresh from the incredible game, but disappointing result, from the Phoenix on the weekend, Nick gets it all off his chest early to then refocus ahead of a big week for the property market with the RBNZ Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Wednesday. It comes as the range of economic data recently released is a bit mixed. Migration is slowing, but still high, rental growth is also slowing but the economy is showing further signs of resilience. From a property market perspective - most recent data has been decidedly weak - particularly the HPI from REINZ, causing a rethink to Nick's 2024 expectation and consideration of just how underwhelming 2024 could actually be.The full Pain & Gain report for Q1 is available on the CoreLogic website and the monthly chart pack will be up soon, as will the monthly video on the Youtube channel.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Despite last week's well-received reactionary pod to the latest CPI inflation data, Nick and Kelvin can't help but dig a bit deeper into the data to get a steer on where things, in particular the OCR, are going. Other topics this week include the CoreLogic monthly chart pack, which focussed on borrowers preference to fix their mortgages short as well as the patchy nature of this recovery. That patchiness, and arguably weakness was backed up by the release of the REINZ index and sales tracking. On the flip side of all the negativity, Kelvin reports that early calcs from the NZAC indicate we may have re-exited the recession, but we all know high net migration (new data on that front too) has a large part to play in that too.Lastly, there's a mention of the CCCFA announcement - not much detail to analyse and even less impact likely, due to high interest rates being the key constraint on funding lines right now. Check out the monthly video and Kelvin's appearance on Tova O'Brien's Stuff podcast.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

The main release last week was the CoreLogic Mapping the Market data - a suburb-level view of median values and change over time. Kelvin offers up the insights from the update and some of the conversations that it sparked with the media.Then from the CoreLogic Buyer Classification series, Nick and Kelvin discuss the early signs of first home buyers facing a bit more competition from other buyers - particularly multiple property owners, but will it last?Elsewhere, Kelvin wraps the macro economic data from Stats NZ, namely migration and rental figures, plus there's the REINZ house price index to analyse, including a couple of larger centres where values fell in February.Plus, check out the CoreLogic NZ Youtube page for the latest monthly video.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

This week Nick and Kelvin kick off with a discussion of the latest CoreLogic House Price Index, which went out in the same week as the REINZ and QV measures. The guys discuss the results from our index, as well as some of the similarities and differences between all the measures, some which were highlighted in a Stuff explainer article. Last week also saw Stats NZ release the latest migration and rent price data – which generally showed further strength (especially for rents), although there are some caveats to note with the latest migration result.Being recorded on Tuesday (rather than usual Monday, due to Wellington Anniversary), this also allowed the guys to comment ‘hot off the press' on the Reserve Bank's latest DTI and LVR consultation. In a nutshell, DTIs are still on track for the middle of the year, with LVRs set to be loosened a bit at the same time. Even more detail to come over the next week in written form and our next podcast.There's also a preview of the upcoming NZ Activity Index, and of course the Q4 inflation figures – a very important release!Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the strains in the Chinese economy are grabbing market attention today.But first, it is mostly upbeat economic news from the US. American mortgage applications were up +10% last week as this market shows signs of stirring again. Benchmark mortgage rates slipped with the key 30 year fixed rate down to 6.89% plus points.So it won't be a surprise to know that the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose, extending the rebound from a near-on-year low touched in November and its best level since August 2023December retail sales came in much better than expected. They were up +0.6% from the prior month, following a +0.3% rise in November and beating forecasts of +0.4%. It is the biggest increase in three months, led by sales of cars. Year on year they were up +5.6% and handily beating inflation which rate at 3.4% over the same period.Adding to today's positive vibe, US industrial production also rose more than expected in December although the bar wasn't high here. On a volume basis, it is +1% higher than a year ago.The UST 20yr bond auction today was well supported, with a median yield of 4.36%, up from the prior equivalent event a month ago at 4.15%. That is a notable rise.There was a big set of important Chinese economic releases late yesterday. As foreshadowed in Davos, China recorded a Q4-2023 GDP expansion of 5.2% which was marginally less than the +5.3% expected. The official 2023 target was "around 5.5%" so they undershot slightly. Disappointing analysts was that this was only achieved by outsized public-sector spending. Consumer spending was a drag on this result.China's industrial production grew by +6.8% year-on-year in December 2023, after a +6.6% gain in the previous month and beating market forecasts of +6.6%. It was the fastest recorded pace of expansion in industrial production since February 2022 and electricity production rose +8.0% which supports the industrial production claim.However their housing development retreat deepened in December. And new house prices fell at their fastest pace since March. Prices for pre-owned units fell faster and everywhere.Meanwhile, China's population is declining faster now, as deaths rise above norms. The number of people in the world's second-largest economy fell for a second year to 1.41 billion in 2023. The Chinese population started shrinking in 2022 for the first time since 1961.We should also note the Chinese Lunar New Year runs this year from January 26 to March 5. It is the Year of the Wood Dragon. It is also the first post Covid period where family travel is high. In the middle, Spring Festival, China's biggest festival, will fall on February 10. Passenger trips via railway, highway, waterways, and civil aviation are expected to hit 1.8 billion during the period officials predicted. About 80% of the trips will be by car, which are likely to hit a new high. They also expect Covid to spike and spread during this gigantic travel and intermingling.Both S&P and Moody's issued separate global reports overnight for 2023 that showed sharply higher funding costs are resulting in many more corporate defaults. The 12 month trailing corporate default rate rose to 4.8% in December, the highest rate since May 2021. Although almost half the defaulters they rated were in the US, Europe was where the biggest increase came from. And in 2024 it is the "media and entertainment" industry that is the most vulnerable.In Australia, they are getting to realise that rate cuts may not be on the agenda as soon as they had priced in. And in Canberra yesterday at a long press conference, the Chinese ambassador took a tough line over Australia's complimentary comments about the free and fair democratic voting in Taiwan. There seems to be a cooling underway in China-Australia relations not long after a thawing had started.Locally, the REINZ will release its December transaction data at 9am this morning. We will have full coverage.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 4.12% and up +4 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today down another -US$22/oz from yesterday at just on US$2005/oz.Oil prices are softer at just under US$71.50/bbl in the US and down by another -50 USc. The international Brent price is now at just over US$76.50/bbl and down almost -US$1.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 61 USc and down almost another -½c from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are holding at 93.3 AUc. Against the euro we are lower at 56.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 70.1 and -30 bps lower.The bitcoin price starts today lower, now at US$42,308 and down -1.9% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours however has remained modest at +/-1.5%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

New data from REINZ showed the New Zealand housing market cooled in October. Prices declined 2 percent nationally on a seasonally adjusted basis, in the first monthly reduction in house prices since April. NZ Herald business editor at large Liam Dann says prospective buyers are feeling less optimistic as interest rates continue to soar. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Aside from a 'quick' breakdown of the All Blacks incredible match and victory over the Irish in the World Cup, it's straight into the result of the General Election where National were the clear winners of the day, though it won't be all plain sailing as we await the counting of special votes to know whether they'll need NZ First or not.Either way, Nick and Kelvin run the rule over the consistent, or not-so-consistent policies between the three parties who may make-up our new Government. The bright-line test, interest deductibility and the foreign buyer tax are the key ones which come to mind.There's plenty of data to cover off too, including the somewhat linked migration and rental index data, as well as the CoreLogic Buyer Classification series  - what's the latest on first home buyer and investor activity?REINZ also released their latest index and count of agent-involved sales figures, then there's a look ahead to the big one for this quarter - the all-important CPI release for Q3.Throw in a quick review of the latest NZ Bankers Association (NZBA) report, and a proper re-cap of the figures in the Cordell Construction Cost Index and you've got a bumper 45 minute episode to tune into, to help with all your conversations ultimately designed to help people build better lives!Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In what was a quieter data week for the housing market Nick and Kelvin again cover off coverage of the tax policies announced by the National Party, following Kelvin's article assessing the potential impact of the changes.From a data perspective, Kelvin reviews the latest mortgage term origination data from the RBNZ - with borrowers slowly swinging back to shorter terms. A quick look at listings volumes shows the spring increase has begun but it's off a low base and with sales also picking up, overall stock levels remain relatively weak.Lastly this week, a look ahead sees a number of releases which will be of interest, including the CoreLogic Buyer Classification series, net migration data, rental prices and the REINZ monthly report for August.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In this episode, we discuss the recent Reserve Bank announcement and what it signifies for the property market. The Reserve Bank has left the OCR at 5.5% and released new forecasts and data that both signal the end of the downturn in the property market. According to their forecasts, house prices bottomed out in March and are expected to increase by 14.5% three years from today. Alongside this, we discuss recent REINZ data, showing two months of rising Auckland property prices, and variation across different regions in New Zealand. Main points discussed: Reserve Bank's new forecasts and its implications REINZ data and property price trends Is it too early to declare the end of the property market downturn? The possible impact on interest rates. Also we mentioned the House Price data on our website, click the link to see all the latest updated data.

New REINZ figures show the housing market is still subdued- but some buyer confidence is returning. Their house price index shows the national median house sale price has dropped 1.3 percent in the month to July and sales have declined 15 percent. Despite this, REINZ chief executive Jen Baird says there's been a clear uptick in buyer activity. "More people are showing up at open homes, more people are showing up at auctions and we are starting to see that in sales volumes." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ever wondered how the unchanging official cash rate might influence not only the economy but also your personal life? Kelvin Davidson and I, Nick Goodall, get to the heart of the matter in our latest episode of the New Zealand Property Market podcast. We kick things off with a lively discussion about the recent Reserve Bank OCR decision holding the OCR at 5.5%, highlighting its 'wait and see' approach and the tell-tale signs of a relaxing labour market due to net migration easing skill shortages.Excited to understand the potential risks of a slower rate of inflation? Well, strap in as we discuss how the constant OCR could impact inflation, financial markets, and your household expenses. We'll walk you through the ripple effect of the OCR rate stability on mortgage rates, using the jump from 2.8% to 5.1% as a case study for shaping the economic scene (David Cunningham on LinkedIn). As we move towards the final part of our episode, we'll be shedding light on the potential upswing in the property market. The trends in rental prices, the cost of living crisis, and the influence of migration on the market are all on the table for discussion. We'll also be scrutinising the most recent sales volumes and house price index data from REINZ. Is there a potential for a 'dead cat bounce'? Cordell Construction Cost Index for Q2Monthly video up Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

My guest is this episode is Will Alexander, CEO of New Zealand Proptech Renti, which is making it easier for property managers to provide a better service to tenants, and help them to  apply for rental properties more easily and move in more quickly.  Will has had an extensive career in real estate. Before joining Renti, he was the general manager of Property Brokers, spent a total of seven years at Barfoot & Thompson, represented the property management sector to the REINZ and worked at Auckland Property Management.  Renti and MoovMe are his second tech startup after he spent two years as founder of MoreMinutes, a proptech designed to help property managers get more out of their day. --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/theproptechpodcast/message

Firstly, our thoughts are with all those affected by Cyclone Gabrielle and the damage it has caused. It is heart-breaking to see and hear about all the people affected by this event, the extent of which is still to be known.There is so much to ponder this week, as the destruction caused by Cyclone Gabrielle poses yet another consideration for Te Pūtea Matua (The Reserve Bank of NZ) as they weigh up all the factors in deciding on the next move for the OCR. This week they'll release their full Monetary Policy Statement, which has Nick and Kelvin debating all the options, including holding the OCR at 4.25%.It was also a very heavy data release week with historically low sales volumes recorded by REINZ, falls in values continuing into 2023, rents experiencing a (potentially deceiving) bounce, net migration growing further and borrowers still constrained at a debt-to-income (DTI) level.The Pain & Gain report is now live, and keep a look out for the Housing Affordability Report, due for release by Wednesday.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

**Please note the original upload of this week's podcast was an older file. This has been updated but you may need to delete the original download and re-download this episode to get the proper version** With a little less data released last week, the focus for the podcast this week centres around the investor market. There's January's Buyer Classification data to first run through, showing first home buyers holding relatively strong, with Kelvin then delving a bit deeper to reveal we may be waiting a while for any investor comeback.With a lot of focus on the arrival of Cyclone Gabrielle, there's further discussion on the broader impacts to the property market as well as reference to some of CoreLogic's Climate Risk Solutions, available to support clients and property owners. Be sure to get in touch if you'd like to know more.Lastly, a look ahead paves the way for a busy week, with rental data, REINZ' HPI, RBNZ lending figures and migration stats all being released this week. Plus, check back for the official release of the 2022 Q4 Pain & Gain report.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

What else could start off this week's discussion than the change of Prime Minister? Ultimately though, from a property perspective, the guys reckon that it's ‘business as usual' for now – what really matters is what will happen to property policy after the Election.In fact, the biggest item this week is actually Wednesday's CPI for Q4. If inflation rose above 7.5% (the Reserve Bank's expectation), we could see some reaction in higher mortgage rates. But a sub-7% result could tip the tone of discussion towards an OCR increase on 22nd February of less than 0.75%, taking some heat out of mortgage rates. A big day beckons.Meanwhile, the REINZ data released last week remained very sluggish, with sales low and the house price index falling again. Queenstown's 5.2% fall in values in December probably isn't a genuine indication of broader trends in that market, but it also reinforces that nowhere is totally immune to the current housing pressures.Rents held steady in December, confirming that tenants are currently in the ascendency, but the sharp and surprisingly strong turnaround lately in net migration may be starting to give some landlords hope for better property demand and cashflow in 2023.Nick and Kelvin also cover off this week's NZAC (weak again?), ANZ business confidence (also subdued?), as well as the so-called Healthy Homes alliance, and some recent negative equity stats for Wellington.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Data released by the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand shows 97 fewer farm sales for the three months ended in October than the same three months last year. REINZ's rural spokesman Brian Peacocke believes a "tension" that exists among farmers is playing a part in the stalled sales. He says many are frustrated by central Government policies, a widespread increase in costs and booming profits announced by the trading banks. He spoke to Kim Hill.

After a quick chat about the latest CoreLogic CCCI report on construction costs the focus quickly turns to the state of the market, following the latest REINZ monthly report detailing recent sales volumes and house value movements.Neither measures provide much positivity for the future, as sales remain slow and values continue to fall, however in slightly better news the recent net migration figures provide a few shards of light at the end of the tunnel. The rental index data from Stats NZ meanwhile looks a little off, but either way, reduced rental growth is adding the current challenges for property investors.The regular quarterly report will be available to download later this week, but prior to that, all eyes will be on the CPI release from Stats NZ - set for Tuesday 10:45am.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Making up for a quieter week prior, last week had a few of the more higher profile data releases. First up the GDP figures for Q2 were released by Stats NZ, with the main headlining being that we avoided a recession, but as Kelvin regularly points out does it really matter if confidence and sentiment is so low it felt like a recession anyway? And what now for inflation and the OCR?REINZ also released their sales volumes and index for August, with continued weakness the main theme. Broad weakness also typified the latest release of the CoreLogic Mapping the Market data analysing the median value and 3 month change by suburb across the country.Elsewhere we also got the latest migration figures from Stats NZ, as well as their rental index release showing further reduced demand and pressure on rental prices.Next week's podcast will be recorded and released on Tuesday 27 September due to the public on holiday on Monday 26 September.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nzPlus, you can sign up to receive any or all CoreLogic releases here.

In the last 6 months, we have seen the biggest drop in house prices since RIEZ records began in the early 1990's. The median price in New Zealand has decreased by nearly 10 percent, with Wellington in particular experiencing a 22 percent price decrease. REIZ Chief Executive Jen Baird is with us to explain what's going on with the current property market, and how societal factors are lowering prices and giving first home buyers a new advantage. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week, Nick and Kelvin lead the podcast with a discussion about whether first home buyers should wait to buy in a falling market. There are a number of factors to consider and not all of them financial - Kelvin teased all of the data out in his written article last week.Sticking to the theme of first home buyers, there's also the CoreLogic Buyer Classification data for July to review as well as REINZ' regular release, Stats NZ's rental index and migration data too.Of course, it wouldn't really be a week in the property market without something to do with the lending environment so a review of the latest RBNZ debt-to-income (DTI) reporting flows into a preview of their Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) to be released on Wednesday and includes their review of the Official Cash Rate (OCR).And keep an eye out for a special edition podcast coming soon, looking at both the NZ and AU property markets - their similarities and differences.The Pain & Gain report for Q2 will also be available for download from first thing Tuesday morning.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nzPlus, you can sign up to receive any or all CoreLogic releases here.

The RBNZ's decision to lift the OCR by another 0.5%, to 2.5%, was entirely expected, however there's still a lot to discuss in terms of the implications and future of mortgage interest rates.Meanwhile the REINZ data release for June prompted an in depth look into sales volumes, which really have fallen away dramatically. Plus, anyone looking for signs of the downturn moderating would have been bitterly disappointed to see the REINZ HPI showing no signs of it.From an economic perspective, Kelvin wraps up the latest Stats NZ releases, covering both their rental index and net migration figures.Keep an eye on the CoreLogic NZ Youtube channel for this months (numbers heavy) video, as well as the latest release of the Cordell Construction Costs Index (CCC!).Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nzPlus, you can sign up to receive any or all CoreLogic releases here.

A number of relevant economic and property market releases lead to a wide-ranging discussion on the state of the NZ economy and the future of the property market (without interest rates dominating!).GDP figures for Q1 showed a contracting economy, to most people's surprise, while the REINZ sales volumes and HPI reaffirmed the market weakness - with the nationwide index now 6% below the peak in November 2021.Meanwhile the rental index figure illustrates slowing growth for rents but still well above the long term average, but can it continue? Along with considering that question Kelvin and Nick also analyse the latest migration stats - what they're showing, but does it matter?Kelvin's article analysing the May Buyer Classification data is up on the website, while the monthly video is also live.Don't forget to register for the Climate Change Panel, hosted by Bernard Hickey (and listen to last week's podcast) and if you work for the Government, register for this week's online market update presentation too.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz 

High interest rates are smashing New Zealand house prices.House prices have continued to fall through May and are now off around 6 percent since their peak in November last year according to REINZ figures.Annual house price growth has since slowed to just below 4 percent.NZ Herald Wellington Business Editor Jenee Tibshraeny joined Heather du Plessis-Allan.LISTEN ABOVE

House sales are taking longer to complete, properties are staying on the market for longer and the upward pressure on prices are easing. The Real Estate Institute has just released its residential sales data for May. Median house prices have decreased 4 percent since April, but are up 2.4 percent since this time last year. Meanwhile across New Zealand, the number of houses sold have decreased 28.4 percent annually, from 7,758 houses sold last year, to 5,556 this year. Kathryn speaks to Jen Baird, Chief Executive of REINZ.

In this episode, we reveal the exact places where Ed gets data from (for free) to analyse a property market. These sources include: REINZ, Regional Economic Activity web tool, Infometrics, Infometrics ecoprofile, Instant Data Scraper, stats.nz, and Property Value These are all awesome tools that property investors can use to make a more informed decision.

The latest 6-monthly CoreLogic first home buyers report clearly illustrated the recent struggles for first home buyers as credit availability and affordability pressures impacted their activity. Of course the report goes into greater detail, as do Nick and Kelvin in their resulting discussion.REINZ figures for April are also a hot topic, particularly due to the stark index result that Wellington City is now -14.2% down from its October peak.Kelvin also provides his take on the latest Westpac Economics team release on construction and the housing shortage, while net migration figures for April provide an opening to a broader economic discussion and April rental data has Nick reiterating comments made about landlord pressures for a oneroof article.This week, keep a look out for RBNZ's latest debt-to-income reporting and insights from their new survey, while Kelvin's written a 'did you know?' post, busting a few myths that are currently circulating and as he says in his regular '5 things to know' the 2022 Government Budget is likely to be relatively uneventful for housing. Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz 

Last week's release of the April CoreLogic House Price Index provided the strongest evidence yet, if it was needed, that the market has swung to the negative with some areas seeing the largest drops in value since the Global Financial Crisis. This, and the release of the Reserve Bank's Financial Stability Report, leads to discussion on the vulnerabilities of the market, including our labour market, but expectations remain for a controlled downturn. But as Kelvin points out in his weekly oneroof article, the mood of the market, which is an important factor on future trajectory, can be difficult to quantify or measure. The latest building consent figures rounds up the week that was, before a look ahead to the CoreLogic First Home Buyer Report, March net migration numbers, rental figures for April and the REINZ release for April (remember to ignore change in median sales price statistics!)Nick's interview on the impact of the latest sea level rise research is up on Newshub.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Heavy demand from homeowners going to the new SeaRise website to check the status of their coastal property led to the site crashing. It was also shut down briefly due to a cyber attack. SeaRise's grim new climate change analysis is bad news for coastal property - water is now predicted to seep 30 centimetres higher in 15 to 18 years. With Insurance companies ruling out paying for the cost of rising seas what will happen to properties under threat and will prices plummet. Real Estate Institute chief executive officer Jen Baird spoke to Corin Dann.

Fresh after Easter – including Nick's time away celebrating his birthday and a family holiday in the Sounds – the key topic for discussion this week is obviously the Reserve Bank's decision to raise the official cash rate by 0.5% rather than the standard 0.25%. It'll keep the upwards pressure on mortgage rates, but future rises may be smaller than we've seen recently.Related to that strand of discussion, this week's episode also covers off a Herald story which covered an OIA request around the possible level of ‘serviceability stress' that might be faced by recent first home buyers as mortgage rates rise. It's possible that about 49% of people who purchased for the first time in the past year could be under strain if typical mortgage rates reach 6%, but the lads also question if the assertion that it could be ‘tens of thousands' in trouble is quite accurate.In a busy data week, this episode also cover off recent figures on rents (surprisingly strong), migration (still weak), and of course the latest REINZ data – which showed further declines for sales volumes and their house price index.This coming week the headlines will be hogged by Thursday's (21st) CPI release – which will be discussed on the pod next week. Inflation is expected to be a bit of a shocker at >7%, but few will be surprised.And as per usual, our weekly top 5 article is now up on the Oneroof site.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz 

This week, Jax, CrushU, and b0mo talk about Renata, then they discuss early surrenders, and whether they're worth doing! Then they answer some great listener questions from ReinZ! Keep those questions coming to fourwards@trinityforcepodcast.com so we can answer them on the show! We DESPERATELY need more questions! We're out!   HUGE shoutout to Mister Peabody for editing the podcast for us!   Four Wards is recruiting! Think you’ve got what it takes to teach the next generation of League players how to improve? Record yourself giving a trinket tip (no more than 1 minute, quick tip that new/inexperienced players might not know, such as our “Zeri can check bushes with her Q” or “you can place a ward at the start of the game, back, switch to sweeper, and have it up before your first gank as a jungler”) and send the recording to fourwards@trinityforcepodcast.com to apply to be on the show! Please send in mp3 format, if you don’t already have recording software, we use Audacity, which is free and open source and can be downloaded from https://www.audacityteam.org/   Sponsors: moxyandzen.com/tforce - use code "tforce" manscaped.com - use code "TFORCE"     ---- Please continue to support the network by reviewing us on iTunes and donating to the Trinity Force Network at http://patreon.com/tforcenetwork  Links Referenced Old Episodes: https://www.trinityforcenetwork.com/show?id=41 TForce Discord: discord.trinityforcenetwork.com Hope you love the episode and please, subscribe on iTunes, leave us reviews, email us, Tweet at us and help us to move this show fourward! Contact information:Twitters: @4WardsPodcast @jaxomen Email: fourwards@trinityforcepodcast.com Twitch: twitch.tv/jaxomen, twitch.tv/crushu, twitch.tv/freeeshooter, twitch.tv/b0mosapien, twitch.tv/arkryu  

There are twice as many properties on the market and the balls now in the buyers court, according to the Real Estate Institute of NZ. Corelogic's house price index, which measures the changing value of property, rose 0.8 percent last month - a sharp drop on January's 2.1 percent growth rate. The lowest price growth since September 2020. Lisa Owen asks Jen Baird from the Real Estate Institute how hard the market's being hit.

It feels like we're turning a corner in how we feel about the economy. A bunch of negative things seem to be hitting us all at once. For the last couple of years, we've been feeling really flush. Our house prices have risen, our businesses have boomed, we've spent our spare cash on buying nice things for ourselves. But now, it's a different story. House prices are clearly coming off the boil. All the recent data shows that. REINZ data, out today, that shows quite a drop, 48%, in house sales month on month. Barfoot and Thompson data last week showed only 27% of houses going to auction, in one week earlier this month, actually sold. Add to that inflation, rising food prices, the rising cost of your mortgage as interest rates go up. Then there's the rising cost of doing business, the minimum wage going up again, the difficulty getting supplies into the country. There's no economic rebound after this last lockdown like there was after all the others: people are isolating because they're afraid of Omicron in the community, which means they're not spending as much as they used to. And so, every one of us by now will know of a business struggling to survive. I grabbed a coffee this morning at my local. The manager told me how badly business has dropped in the red setting. They're doing 70% of what they should be doing, and they're doing well, compared to other places around town who he reckons will have to close.  This isn't unexpected. We always had to come off the sugar rush high of all that money being pumped into the economy. It's like we filled ourselves up on fizzy soda for two years and now we're just experiencing the sugar crash on the other side. But what this does is, it changes the topic. It's probably the biggest conversation changer we've seen in two years. I reckon the economy will become the topic as the year goes on as Covid becomes increasingly background noise. And this makes politics interesting this year, because if Covid is Labour's mastermind topic, the economy is Nationals' mastermind topic. A souring economy never plays well for an incumbent government. So, I'd expect that as the year goes on and we all feel less flush, it could open the political game right up. 

First up this week is a recap of the Cordell Construction Costs Index (CCCI) for Q4 which was released last week and got a LOT of press. Then we review the January CoreLogic Buyer Classification data showing the first real signs of tightening credit (LVRs and CCCFA) hitting first home buyer activity.Plenty to look out for this week too, including the CoreLogic Affordability report, Stats NZ's Rental Index for January and the REINZ data release. And as always this week's '5 things you need to know' is up on oneroof.co.nz.Lastly, a big thanks to Anna for getting in touch about her recent experiences in the Point Chevalier property market - plenty of broader trends to look out for as we transition away from the latest boom phase.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz