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Key Topics:   The original Turtle experiment and lessons from Richard Dennis  Why and how trend following focuses on small losses and large winners  Volatility-based position sizing and risk management discipline - Diversification across equity markets, currencies, commodities, bonds, and individual stocks  Current market dispersion and what it means for systematic strategies  The psychological challenge of sticking with trend during whipsaws and drawdowns  The growing role of ETFs in managed futures How advisors can size and integrate trend-following sleeves within broader allocations  Key Takeaways:  Trend following is agnostic — it adapts rather than predicts.  Diversification across a broad global universe improves opportunity and resilience.  Proper allocation and manager selection matter more than short-term performance.  No strategy is perfect — understanding drawdowns and behavioral discipline is critical.  Learn More:  Jerry Parker & Chesapeake Capital: www.chesapeakecapital.com  Dantes Outlook's RIA & OCIO Services: www.dantesoutlook.com  Dantes Outlook Substack for ongoing research and portfolio insights: www.dantes.substack.com  Disclaimer: The information presented is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice nor as a recommendation of any particular strategy, allocation or investment product: before making any investment decision, you should seek expert, professional advice and obtain information regarding the legal, fiscal, regulatory and foreign currency requirements for any investment according to the laws of your home country and place of residence. Investing involves risk, including the possibility of loss of principal. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results may vary from any statements or forecasts. The information presented is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice nor as a recommendation of any particular strategy, allocation or investment product: before making any investment decision, you should seek expert, professional advice and obtain information regarding the legal, fiscal, regulatory and foreign currency requirements for any investment according to the laws of your home country and place of residence. Investing involves risk, including the possibility of loss of principal. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results may vary from any statements or forecasts.Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com

Dairy futures have been anything but calm. In just three weeks, prices across Class III, Class IV, cheese, butter and nonfat have surged, then whipped back and forth enough to exhaust even full-time market watchers. In this episode of The Milk Check, Ted Jacoby and the T.C. Jacoby & Co. team break down why dairy futures can look irrational, even when the underlying fundamentals haven't changed much. What's driving the chaos (beyond fundamentals) Short squeezes 101: how a crowded short can turn into a domino effect Flow first, narrative second: why the buying often hits before the story shows up Realized vs. implied volatility: what the market did vs. what the options market is pricing in Why nonfat may be the center of the storm: the team debates whether this is a true regime change Why butter and cheese moved too: how spread relationships and algorithmic trading can drag correlated dairy contracts higher Spot market feedback loops: how NDPSR-linked spot markets can amplify futures moves (tail-wagging-the-dog dynamics). What usually happens next: why squeezes rarely park at the top Plus: stick around for a director's cut featuring the unedited, behind-the-scenes debate the team usually leaves on the cutting room floor. Got questions? We'd love to hear them. Submit below, and we might answer it on the show. Ask The Milk Check Ted Jacoby III: [00:00:00] It has been wild and crazy every day for the last three weeks. Welcome to the Milk Check from T.C. Jacoby and Company, your complete guide to dairy markets, from the milking parlor to the supermarket shelf. I’m Ted Jacoby. Let’s dive in. We’ve got a special treat for you this week. We’re gonna drop the director’s cut of this podcast where we include some of the conversations that usually get edited out: how we debate internally about some of these market dynamics. So, stay tuned after the end of the podcast and listen to the off-takes. My name is Ted Jacoby, CEO of T.C. Jacoby & Co., and joining me today is Jacob Menge, our Vice President of Risk Management and Trading Strategy, Josh White, our Vice President of Dairy Ingredients, and Joe Maixner, our Director of Sales. We are in week three of a very high level of volatility in the dairy markets. We’ve had a very interesting last few weeks. It’s February 9th, and since January 15th, our Class III March futures are up 18%. Our [00:01:00] March cheese futures are up over 15%. Butter futures are up over 26%. nonfat futures up 37% and Class IV milk futures up 36%. These markets have not gone up in a straight line. There’s been a massive amount of volatility, a lot of green, a lot of red, and then a lot of green, and then a lot of red again, enough to make all of us who talk these markets on a daily and an hourly basis to be flat out exhausted. The question becomes, what’s causing this level of volatility?  We are gonna talk a little bit about market psychology. Why can markets do what they’ve done in the last three weeks, and why our actual fundamental market analysis hasn’t really changed that much.  To quote the famous British economist, John Maynard Keynes, “Markets can remain irrational far longer than you and I can remain solvent.” And I’ll tell you that the last three weeks reminded me repeatedly of that phrase. It serves as a warning against over leveraging or trying to fight the tape, trading against trends, suggesting that just because you are right about a trend’s [00:02:00] long-term direction, it’s useless if you run out of capital. Ted Jacoby III: And I have a feeling that based on what we’ve been experiencing lately, there’s probably a few people out there that exactly that happened to. It has been wild and crazy every day for the last three weeks. Jake, why do markets do this? Jacob Menge: You threw out your little soundbite anecdotes. We will pull out some more of ’em during those podcasts, I’m sure, because those are all written by people that have been burned by short squeezes like we’re seeing, right? One that sticks out to me is: volatility is the tax you pay for liquidity and leverage, and that’s what futures markets are, right? They are a way for people to express their opinion on price action. Obviously, even a hedger is in some way expressing an opinion using futures or options. They’re highly liquid. You don’t even have to pay full price for ’em because you only gotta put up that margin upfront. And again, volatility is usually the tax that you pay for that. When you have this easy leverage, and everybody can get on one side of the boat you can’t have your cake and eat it, too. You can’t [00:03:00] have tight spreads, you can’t have the leverage and smooth prices all at the same time. And that can result in things like short squeezes. We were primed for one. You’re right, we had low volatility. We had a lot of people that were short the market because that was the prevailing narrative. As a result, all it took was one little spark to set some pretty dry kindling ablaze. That’s exactly what we saw, especially on the nonfat side. I’ll pull out my second anecdote. I’ve always heard: squeezes are flow events first, narrative events second. That’s exactly what was going on with nonfat. Meaning we get this massive bullish order flow coming in. The market goes up 30%+ in a few week period, and it’s only after that happens that all of a sudden we start having these conversations of, well, what was everybody missing in nonfat? I think the market probably was missing something on the nonfat side. But at the end of the day when you have volatility near lows, volume that was [00:04:00] fairly average, it makes sense that really the only way to go is gonna be up. If there’s any kind of news. And the news this time turns out there’s a whole lot less nonfat out there than people probably expected. And away we go. And it turns into this snowball where there’s the first people to see that and start wanting to buy, and the second they start wanting to buy, turns out there’s not a whole lot of sellers there, because everybody that wanted to sell already had sold. You get that first nice air pocket jump higher. That really is that first domino where if you’re a market maker, say, and you need to hedge your book, you’re trying to run a delta neutral trading book as a market maker, you might say, “Okay, well hey, I need to go get some long delta myself.” And you might go try to buy some options, to buy calls, to offset that. And then all of a sudden the market maker that is selling the calls want more for the calls than they wanted just a day ago. Ted Jacoby III: A day ago? Try an hour ago. Jacob Menge: Yeah, an hour ago. Truly. And so [00:05:00] that would be what we call implied volatility. Right. And I think that’s one important distinction here is we have volatility, what we call realized volatility, which is what the market actually did, like how crazy the market is, and then implied volatility, basically what the market is charging for options usually and implying what the market thinks the volatility will be in the future. And that’s where it gets really fun because even though we didn’t have a lot of realized volatility, if the market thinks it’s gonna become volatile and starts charging more for these options, it can almost be a self-fulfilling prophecy, right? Because now you have to pay more to buy that insurance policy, and you can see how that snowball really can grow fairly fast. We have one other really  fun part in dairy markets that I can’t help but mention, and that is that we also have spot markets. Those spot markets indirectly are linked to the futures prices because of our National Dairy Products Sales Report (NDPSR) system. And so we [00:06:00] can really wind up with the tail wagging the dog in our futures markets and in our spot markets where, say the spot markets were driving the ship on the way down. People had a lot of products, they’re selling them. Well, all of a sudden, if we start getting a little bit of a squeeze in our futures markets, now if you have product, you don’t wanna sell it on the exchange, you wanna just hold onto it and capture the carry in the futures curve. And so you’re not gonna sell. And so any bidder on the spot auction has to bid it higher. And guess what? Now the futures see the spot auction being bid up and they say, “Well, well, we are right to be panicking. We need to go higher.” And that’s just pouring gasoline on the fire. We’ve already got a raging inferno at this point, but that adds the final pour of gasoline. Ted Jacoby III: You remind me of one of my learning moments 20 some odd, almost 30 years ago, when I was watching these markets, as the futures markets were just becoming relevant to the dairy industry. And it was the realization that futures markets and spot markets are [00:07:00] two different markets with a different set of drivers of supply and demand. On the spot market, supply is, let’s talk about butter, is the supply of 80% bulk butter. Demand is the demand for that 80% bulk butter. The futures butter markets, it may settle to that NDPSR price of the bulk butter market, but the reality is the supply is the number of people who are willing to sell those futures, and the demand is the number of people that are willing to buy those futures. And so you can have people coming into the market that really don’t care at all about how much block butter are out there because they’re actually trying to hedge cream cheese or a chocolate shake or something completely different that has butter in it, but they need to own those futures, and that futures market can move quite a bit and has nothing to do with the actual supply and demand of the market it’s based on. Jacob Menge: Anecdote number three. I always have heard squeezes feel irrational because risk systems are mechanical. And I think that is true here, right? You have stops in place. A lot of [00:08:00] companies will have risk management policies that say, “Hey if VAR gets to a certain point, you have to get out of your position.” Or on the opposite side, you have to hedge your product if something has happened, or you have to hedge your buy price if the market hits a certain threshold. And so, that can really send the market in the short run to some areas that feel irrational, but again, it’s because the systems behind it are mechanical sometimes and not even human. Obviously, the human factor makes things even spicier. But once your mechanical stops have all been hit, and the party is coming to an end very, very rarely — I’m struggling to think of one short squeeze I’ve ever seen — that actually goes to the top and then just starts trading sideways. It is almost always an overshoot and a retracement back down to some level. And that is really where our different volatilities really matter because on that collapse back to reality, and reality can [00:09:00] be very different than where we started, just to be clear, if nonfat started at a $1.20, and we go way up to a $1.60, and then settle at a $1.40, we’re still 20¢ higher than where we started. So, don’t get me wrong, right? Short squeezes, there’s usually some fundamentals behind it, but it’s that blow off top that we might say feels super, super irrational. And again, we’ll have kind of this realized volatility going higher as we are going up and going down. But the more interesting thing in my opinion is that as we’re doing that retracement off of this super high blow off top, implied volatility tends to drift lower. That’s actually an important concept to really understand because as implied volatility is moving lower with the market moving lower, it gives the market breathing room, and that is the point where we can really find equilibrium and come out at maybe the price we should have been three months ago, but [00:10:00] shouldn’t have been last week during that crazy short covering rally. Josh White: Hey guys, what should we make of the fact that our least volatile product over the past, I mean, what decade, 20 years, is the most volatile right now? Or is it is nonfat technically the most volatile product? That’s it. Ted Jacoby III: It is. Josh White: Yep, Ted Jacoby III: it is. Josh White: What should we make of that? I mean, that to me should be the definition of a market cycle change, right? Do we believe that? Joe Maixner: If the market with historically the lowest amount of volatility now has the highest amount of volatility, does that mean that there is a structural change in the way that the market is operating? Jacob Menge: Yes. This might mean regime change for the nonfat market. But we’ve also had these other short squeezes in butter, in Class III. We’re still in a volatile period, but those could just be because we have algorithms keeping Class III and Class IV in check. We’re pondering the question: is there this regime change in nonfat from a low volatility commodity to a high volatility commodity? It’s probably too early to tell. My [00:11:00] guess would be yes, we’re not gonna go back to this boring state nonfat had been in, because it’s just a very evolving market with what we’re seeing on the protein beverage side, you name it: the market’s doing a really good job of taking a boring commodity and finding these new, exciting uses for it. And, and so it kind of passes the sniff test. What probably doesn’t pass the sniff test is what we’re seeing on the other commodities right now: butter and just the Class III products, frankly, I should say cheese in general. What we’re seeing right now with those is they’re following along with the nonfat rally. This really seems to me like nonfat is in the driver’s seat. And I think there’s pretty logical explanations for why we’re seeing cheese and butter do what they’re doing along with nonfat. We’ve got algorithms that trade spreads within our market, right? We do have a crushable commodity. We can take Class III, Class IV, and break it down into its components. As a result, [00:12:00] there’s some opinions on, say the Class III, Class IV spread. And so if we get this massive rally in nonfat, well then any algorithm that’s trading the Class IV crush is probably dragging butter along with it. And now we’ve got Class IV rallying, and there’s probably other algorithms and other people with opinions in the market on what that Class III, Class IV spread should be. And so, even if the absolute price is seeming outta whack there’s enough people with opinions on maybe spreads or calendar spreads or what have you, that are causing the reactions that we’re seeing. Ted Jacoby III: This is the scenario that I can imagine. Everybody has been short, pretty much all of the dairy markets for about six months now. Maybe it took other people longer than it took us to realize that there was gonna be too much milk out there all over the world. But by the time we got to the second week in January, I think everybody who wanted to be short this market already was. Then people started to realize that maybe they weren’t entirely right about the nonfat market. Kind of makes sense if you think [00:13:00] about what we’ve been talking about over the last six months, which is: too much butterfat, too much cheese, but protein’s still really in good demand. Guess what? Nonfat is 34% protein. So, all of a sudden people realized, shoot, maybe the nonfat market has a different dynamic to it and it might need to go up so they start buying it. Well, that causes the Class IV market to go up. And if you have insurance companies that are part of the DLP program that are short this Class IV market, then all of a sudden it’s going the other direction on ’em and they need to go figure out how to get some length in the Class IV market. But shoot, they can’t find any liquidity in the Class IV market. So, instead they’re gonna buy nonfat and they’re gonna buy butter. Now think about it. Now they’re gonna go buy butter. Everybody that wanted to be sure at the butter market is already sure at the butter market. There aren’t any sellers left in the butter market because everybody already did their selling. And so now they’re buying butter, driving the butter market up. And then the last few people who sold the butter market, those who were late to the party, all of a sudden are noticing their margin accounts go negative. Now they’ve gotta throw in the [00:14:00] cash. Maybe they don’t have the financial resources to fund a margin call. And so now they have to buy their futures back, and all of a sudden it becomes this domino, forcing more and more people, for one reason or another, to have to buy back their positions. The next thing you know, you’re up 26%, even though the reality is supply and demand to butterfat, not just in the U.S., but frankly, probably in the world, hasn’t changed one bit in the last three weeks, and that’s why we’re up 26% right now. Jacob Menge: Crowded trades don’t break because they’re wrong. They break because they’re crowded. Ted Jacoby III: I like that. I haven’t heard that one before. I like that . So what happens next? You talk about markets being in strong hands and weak hands. Moments like this force everybody who is a weak hand out of the market, and so the only people left with a position in the market are the ones in strong hands. Does the market go back, and I’m thinking butter, not necessarily nonfat. I think we were all in agreement that the nonfat market has probably had somewhat of a dynamic change. I don’t know if it’s a 36% change, but it’s had [00:15:00] somewhat of a change. But now the butter market, which really probably hasn’t had the same amount of change, the supply and demand for butterfat probably is the same thing it was four weeks ago. And I don’t think you’re gonna find many people out there who are arguing that butter needs to be at $2, like the current March futures say it should be. So what happens in the butter market next? Does it go back to where it was? How do these short squeezes usually play out? Jacob Menge: As an economist, I will say the markets are a perfect system and they will find the exact right price where buyers and sellers meet and everybody is happy. The reality is, short squeezes are really good for hitting the reset button and finding a new equilibrium. And sometimes that is right back to where they started. Sometimes that is closer to the top of the squeeze than the bottom. I think we’re still in that reset period. I don’t think we know where equilibrium is on all of our commodities. It’s gonna still take some time, right? [00:16:00] Because let’s just run with the theory of cheese is gonna go back to where we kinda started all this thing in the $1.40s on the futures. It’s gonna take time for sellers to step back in the market and chew through all this new buy-side liquidity. This buy-side liquidity can come from risk management plans that are in place. And so it just takes time to find that equilibrium. But that is in theory what the market’s going through. Ted Jacoby III: I wanted to have this kind of a conversation because the reality is this was one of those where there’s a lot of people out there right now, they’ve got about half the hair they used to have. Jacob Menge: I don’t think we made them feel any better. Ted Jacoby III: Unfortunately. I know. Stay tuned for the deleted scenes from this podcast.  And now the director’s cut. Josh White: Protein’s demand has absolutely changed. Ted Jacoby III: All along we were saying protein demand was strong. To me, this is more about butter than it is about nonfat. Why in the world [00:17:00] is butter up 30¢? Jacob Menge: I think we need to gut check every single model we have in any spreadsheet anywhere. Josh White: A hundred percent. Jacob Menge: Because it’s a new era. Ted Jacoby III: I would argue though that, I mean, we can talk all day long about whether or not our market analysis is right or wrong, but the reality is this was everybody’s market analysis. Josh White: That’s the point we’re making. Ted Jacoby III: I think the irony is, I think the short squeeze had absolutely nothing to do with underestimating how much protein was going to fluid. I think it started for a completely different reason, but once it started moving, we all started looking harder at our analysis. And said, “Man, maybe we’re missing something,” and then actually found it. Josh White: That’s the part that I’m struggling with is I’m actually thinking butter’s easier to rationalize in my mind than nonfat. I think nonfat is a bigger story right now than anything else because butter, what’s the elasticity of demand? And there’s a shift in it because we’re exporting again. Yeah, it’s making it hard for us to measure, but we definitely have been cheaper. And so for it [00:18:00] to be buoying around for price discovery, to try to find that new equilibrium with seasonality, with different products and all that, to me that’s actually easier for me to understand. Like it drops from a price that was significantly higher. Upper twos even pushing three and exceeding three for a short amount of time all the way down to a $1.50. If we don’t think there would be some demand response to that globally and that we would have some retracement or volatility for the opposite reasons that nonfat is probably going too high and gonna have to retrace lower. That to me, like I don’t think we should be super shocked that butter’s doing that. You know what I mean? Like trying to find its equilibrium. To me that’s easier to explain. Ted Jacoby III: Completely agree with everything you’re saying, but I would say this. What we’re arguing about butter is, it’s a vagueness of knowing the balance where the equilibrium price is. We’re just bouncing around trying to find it. I think that’s different from what happened in nonfat. I think with nonfat, the market, the physical market itself, literally [00:19:00] couldn’t get what it wanted. Joe, did we ever have a moment when we couldn’t get the butter we wanted? Before the run started, could you get all the butter you wanted? Joe Maixner: Not off exchange. Josh White: Not 80% fresh salted product. It was being hoarded, right? Joe Maixner: There’s multiple facets to this, right? Like yes, you cannot get any 80% fresh salt right now. But we’re also struggling on getting any old crop, 80% salt off of exchange right now because the old crop situation is much different than it was back when old crop was an actual market mover. Five years ago, all the old crop butter was only at a 12 month shelf life on domestic salted. Everyone’s gone to a 18 or 24 month shelf life. So the product’s still good off exchange for a lot longer than it used to be. So nobody’s out there needing to technically dump it at this point in time if you don’t have a sale for it, because you could still use it off exchange. For a brief period, yes, the salted market got tight, but it’s also because we had the carry in [00:20:00] the market that we had, right? We had the 20¢, 30¢ carry in the market. So, whether you had new crop, old crop, whatever, why would you sell it at a $1.35 in January when you could sell it for a $1.75 a $1.80 in March at that time? Now, we’ve come down, you know, now we’re at a $1.83 in March right now, but at one point we were at $2.00 on March futures with this rally. It’s simple economics. You can carry the products for 3¢ a month and you can make 14¢ to 25¢ depending on the month you wanna sell it in or you let it go for way too cheap. Ted Jacoby III: I hear you. But to me, that’s wholesaler math, that’s trader math. At the end user level, at the people who consume butter, has there been a fundamental shift in how much butter is being consumed? Joe Maixner: No, I don’t think so. Ted Jacoby III: Whereas I think when we’re talking about nonfat and especially the protein in nonfat, I think there has been. It actually manifested itself as a lower amount of supply in nonfat. But I think what’s happened is we were [00:21:00] taking that protein away from the nonfat dryer and using it somewhere else. Whereas with butter, I don’t think that’s happened. Joe Maixner: No, but at the same time, I think that there’s similarities between butter and nonfat, whereas people came into this year structurally short. They didn’t contract because they anticipated the supply to be there. Ted Jacoby III: And then everybody showed up, that’s essentially being short the market. Joe Maixner: Yeah. Ted Jacoby III: When I talk about how everybody who wanted to be short this market was already short this market, so there were no more sellers left to sell. So when somebody wanted to start buying, there was nobody to sell. Joe Maixner: I mean, ultimately you’re just explaining the classic short squeeze. Ted Jacoby III: Right? To me though, that is what we’re dealing with. That’s what we’ve been dealing with right now. That’s what the short squeeze is. It wasn’t just everybody was short this market. Then they were ready to start buying ’cause the market was low enough. Then they found there wasn’t anybody left to buy from ’cause everybody had already sold everything they wanted to sell. And that caused the short squeeze, without any real rationality of there being a fundamental change in demand or supply. It was all at the wholesale [00:22:00] level. Whereas with nonfat, I would argue that the market came to a realization that we were pulling protein away from the dryer to sell it into liquid UF, causing a fundamental shift in the actual supply and demand balance, whereas I don’t necessarily think that happened with butter. With butter, I think it was just the noise in the middle of people making choices about being long or short of market. I don’t, am I making any sense? Joe Maixner: I think you’re getting to the point where you’re talking in circles, if I’m being honest. Ted Jacoby III: To me there’s a difference between talking tactics and talking trading strategy and talking about a fundamental supply demand analysis. Josh White: I think it’ll make a compelling podcast for those that are wondering what’s going on. I genuinely mean that. Ted Jacoby III: We might actually want to have the 15 minute version of talking about what happened in market psychology. Then have an appendix to it capturing the discussion as to what is the real difference between what’s going on in butter and nonfat. Josh White: Or how do [00:23:00] these guys communicate when the makeup’s off? Joe Maixner: I think we leave, I think we leave it all in.

Welcome to season 4, episode 8 of the Stock Trading for Beginners Podcast!In this episode, we break down why your trading strategy usually isn't the real problem—and what actually causes traders to struggle with consistency.Resources:Join the mentorship waitlist here: https://stokestrades.com/joinJoin our FREE Skool group: https://www.skool.com/tradingAfter years of studying trading and running an eight-week mentorship with live chart reviews and implementation calls, the same issues kept showing up again and again. Not confusion about strategy, but emotions, unclear rules, and misaligned trading styles.We'll talk about why trading becomes emotional without structure, how rules and journaling reduce stress, why identifying your trading avatar matters, and how risk management, leverage, and patience play a major role in long-term success.Key Topics:Why Trading Becomes Emotional Without predefined rules, traders struggle most at exits. Uncertainty around when to sell, add, or hold creates stress—especially during pullbacks or volatile markets.Define Entries and Exits Before the Trade Writing down why you're entering and when you'll exit—before placing the trade—dramatically reduces emotional decision-making. A core rule of this strategy: only buy at support, never at resistance.Trading Avatars and Identity Knowing whether you're an active trader, swing trader, or momentum trader determines how you manage profits, volatility, and pullbacks. Aligning exits with your personality removes second-guessing.The Power of Journaling A simple journal (stock, support level, confluence, avatar, emotions, exit plan) helps confirm that trades are rule-based—not emotional—and keeps you disciplined during daily price noise.Risk Management, Leverage, and Options Overleveraging and misunderstanding margin or options increases stress and risk. Consistent position sizing and avoiding unnecessary leverage helps traders stay calm during normal retracements.Patience Pays This strategy rewards patience—waiting for stocks to retrace into support instead of chasing extended moves. Markets never move straight up, and strong support zones offer better risk-to-reward opportunities.TakeawaysYour strategy isn't usually the issue—lack of structure is. Define your rules before entering, know your trading avatar, journal every trade, manage risk carefully, and let price come to you. When trading is calm and mechanical, probabilities are allowed to play out.If you're not already part of our free Skool community, you'll find the link in the show notes. We also open our mentorship group every few months—join the waitlist for the next cohort starting in early March.See you in the next episode!Send me some feedback!Join Our Free Community on Skool:https://www.skool.com/trading

In this video, I answer three of the biggest questions traders have when it comes to their trading strategy. Thanks for your support, please remember to LIKE & FOLLOW the podcast!Your Trading Coach - Akil

Nonfat prices have moved sharply higher in recent weeks. But the rally isn’t being driven by a sudden surge in demand. It’s being driven by a breakdown in where milk is actually flowing. In this episode of The Milk Check, Ted Jacoby III and the Jacoby team unpack insights coming out of the IDFA Dairy Forum in Palm Springs and explain why nonfat prices have surged nearly 25 cents in just weeks, even as milk production remains strong. The issue isn’t price resistance. It’s availability. Milk that the market expected to move into dryers is instead being diverted into cheese plants, ultra-filtration, whey proteins and other higher-value protein streams. As a result, powder supply is far tighter than headline production numbers suggest. Layer in heavy short positioning, processing disruptions, and new offtake agreements, and the market begins to resemble a classic short squeeze. In this conversation, the team breaks down what’s actually driving NDFM and why higher prices haven’t unlocked new supply. We cover: How protein economics are pulling milk away from powder Why rising milk production hasn’t translated into greater availability Key structural differences between the U.S., Europe, and New Zealand Where the market may find its next equilibrium, and what could disrupt it If you’re relying on historical assumptions about nonfat availability, this episode explains why those assumptions may no longer hold. Listen to The Milk Check to understand what the evolving nonfat landscape means for pricing risk, exports and coverage decisions ahead. Available below or on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Podcasts or YouTube. Got questions? We'd love to hear them. Submit below, and we might answer it on the show. Ask The Milk Check Jacob Menge: [00:00:00] There are just so many of these long-held assumptions, things that people who have been in the industry a while probably have, like, “Well, my gut tells me this.” Question your gut. Ted Jacoby III: Welcome to the Milk Check from T.C. Jacoby and Company, your complete guide to dairy markets, from the milking parlor to the supermarket shelf. I’m Ted Jacoby. Let’s dive in. It is January 30th. We’ve all just got back from the Dairy Forum in Palm Springs, where it was a hell of a lot warmer than it is here in frigid St. Louis, Missouri. Joining me today is Diego Carvallo, the head of our international sales team and our head non -fat dry milk trader. We have Josh White, head of our dairy ingredients group, Jacob Menge, our VP of risk Management and Trading Strategy, and Mike Brown, VP of Jacoby Dairy Market Intelligence. Guys, welcome. What did we learn in Palm Springs? I think the biggest thing that came out of our visit and running into everybody at the Dairy Forum is that nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder really is tight. We have a short squeeze going on in the nonfat dry milk [00:01:00] market. The market is up. I think it’s 25 cents in the last three weeks. I’ll let Diego explain to everybody what’s really going on in the nonfat market right now. Diego? Diego Carvallo: Ted, that’s a very loaded question right now. Everybody’s scratching their heads. As of right now, today, Friday the 30th, the market just closed. The whole strip is limit up — 4 cents up. I think I hadn’t seen this in quite some time. IDFA was very interesting for a lot of people to discover why the spot market has been tight for this long and have good discussions on what the outlook looks like. Let’s start with the fundamentals. I think a few things are helping this market and supporting it and pushing it higher. The first one is what a lot of people are discussing, which is the amount of UF being produced in regions like the Midwest. We all know that many of the plants have installed new capacity to have UF sales, and those solids are in great demand [00:02:00] for cheese fortification right now. So that’s one of the reasons why the Midwest especially feeling this tight. Another reason is that the majority of the people who speculate with this market, and it goes from traders to manufacturers and even distributors, most of them have been short, expecting this market to move lower during the spring flush. I remember a few months ago, the speculation was that we were gonna break the $1. And, it seems like everybody got short, physical and in the screen, and that market, obviously, whenever we saw a bounce, everybody ran to cover their shorts, right? Another reason is that we saw a few interruptions in processing capacity, especially in California during the months of November. I think that also contributed to the tightness in the market without even getting into the conversation of new [00:03:00] offtake agreements that have taken up this year. So I think those are the main contributors to this market moving higher, and I think it’s something that is mainly affecting the U.S. The rest of the market is following through. I think this scenario is very different when you talk about European and New Zealand production. It’s even different when you see the U.S., the West Coast versus the rest of the country. Ted Jacoby III: Tell me about Europe. I know Europe started acting tight a little bit before the U.S., but what’s going on in Europe? Nonfat, dry milk and skim milk powder is probably our most global market when it comes to dairy. Diego Carvallo: So, Europe had a couple of large tenders that took place, I think that was beginning of January. So, the infamous O’Neill tender and a few similar tenders that usually move a lot of product. Those tenders took place, and I think it helped clear some of the excess product that was available in the market. But I think in Europe we had a similar situation where most of the traders, most [00:04:00] of the end users and manufacturers, everybody was expecting prices to move lower, right? Whenever we saw these tenders coming and the market slightly turned less bearish, I think everybody ran also to cover their shorts. But the situation in Europe has not been as bullish as it has in the U.S. The spread between the U.S. and Europe when it comes to skim has in fact widened as of right now. Europe is also feeling the support. Definitely. It’s in part driven by the U.S. rally. Ted Jacoby III: Well, that makes sense. I can tell you I had conversations with a few different manufacturers while I was at IDFA. And the best way I can sum up what the feeling was there’s a couple of dryers on the East Coast. Those dryers at this point are not expecting to ever run full this year, not even at the height of the flush, because there’s three new plants at various stages of development. There’s a new cheese plant in New York. There is a Fair Life milk plant in New York, and then ultimately a yogurt plant in New [00:05:00] York. All three of those plants are gonna need the milk. It’s gonna come at the expense of the powder plants in that area. You look at the Southwest in Texas again, you’ve got two new cheese plants that are still in the midst of ramping up. They are getting first dibs on the milk at the expense of the nonfat dry milk plants down there. So those plants are gonna get the milk that they expected. And there’s another nonfat plant that pretty much has turned a 100%, to Diego’s point that’s turned a 100% of their milk supply into skim UF that they’re supplying to various sources. And that plant is running the ultra filtration unit full. So, that plant isn’t drying anything. You got a couple of dryers in the Michigan area. They’re not running as full as usually, but it’s more of a domino effect there. I have a hunch as you get into the flush, those dryers may fill up. But you’ve got four other dryers, maybe five that aren’t. Now you go over to the west coast: California, those are drying. But California alone, as big as it is, is not enough to offset how much milk is not running into the dryers in the [00:06:00] rest of the country. And then you’ve got the Northwest, where there has been a lot of milk lost in the Northwest. And so that dryer isn’t running as full as probably previously expected. What happened was everybody just got together, finally started talking when they were all together in Palm Springs, and they realized when they did the math, even if we’re up 4.4% in milk production, we’re not drying more nonfat. Those skim solids are going elsewhere for various reasons. Diego Carvallo: The biggest question right now, Ted, is the lack of product in the Midwest and East Coast could balance out the lack of exports that we’re gonna have from this price rally. The numbers say that demand is approximately 60 million pounds. That number, it’s probably only 2% to 3% of U.S. nonfat production. So, it doesn’t seem like a huge number, but when you compare it to exports it is quite a volume. Ted Jacoby III: It really does add up. Yeah, no, I would agree with that. Jacob Menge: It sounds based on what Ted had just laid out and what you had said earlier, Diego, that this [00:07:00] isn’t necessarily a demand-driven rally. It’s really a lack-of-supply-driven rally. Ted Jacoby III: Yeah. A lack-of-supply-driven rally in an environment where everybody was expecting oversupply and kind of got caught surprised when they realized that even though there’s more milk, it didn’t fully translate to more powder. Jacob Menge: So, what changes it? Price? How long? What does end game here look like? Based on what I’m hearing, sounds to me like there’s almost not a price that is all of a sudden going to bring more supply out of the woodwork. So, is there a price that kills demand? People say, “Hey, we can’t make this number work anymore?” Ted Jacoby III: I think, actually, Diego just framed it a few minutes ago in the right way. This lost production that we were expecting, is it enough to make up for the fact that international demand for nonfat and skim milk powder isn’t actually that great? I think he’s hit the nail on the head. Let’s face it, skim milk powder, nonfat, dry milk is kind of the ultimate dairy commodity, which means it’s more price sensitive than others. And we’re gonna get to a point when we’re gonna find out where that [00:08:00] equilibrium point is between demand and supply. Josh White: There’s a few things that could tilt the scales a bit that I think we should just pay a little bit of attention to at the moment. You made a comment earlier that the production outta California isn’t enough to satisfy what we’re losing in terms of powder in the rest of the country. I wonder though, as we seasonally ramp up our milk volumes in the U.S., if we don’t satisfy that difference at a certain moment. I’m certainly not suggesting that that should make us all bearish. But I do think that there’s something worth noting there. Jake, you made a comment a moment ago that it doesn’t sound like there’s a price that slows it down. That same phenomenon is happening in Europe right now, and I think that Europe is also gonna seasonally increase their supply. They’ve got a lot of additional powder and there is a price out there that people substitute. There is a price out there at which you price out international demand. What we’ve gotta try to reconcile is all of this additional demand for skim solids in the U.S. is [00:09:00] that replacing our need to be an exporter of skim solids? I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but it feels like a reach to believe that we’re consuming enough to take away our need to compete internationally for skim demand. So that’s one thing that might just put a little bit of a seasonal ceiling on this thing as we move forward. The real question is, does that actually tilt us into a surplus situation again, or not? Big question that we should get our arms around. Additionally, I think that there is substitution within dairy. For the longest time, skim solids are very, very cheap. And as mentioned, the fortification into the cheese vat has been a pretty clear decision. When butterfat dropped to the price levels that it did, it makes a whole lot of sense to fortify. As these skim prices move a bit higher and dependent on our cheese price outlook going forward, does that math shift at all? I’ve heard arguments on both sides that the math does matter, and I’ve also heard arguments that the math really doesn’t matter. It’s all about [00:10:00] optimizing put through in the vat. So yeah, I think those are interesting topics for us to debate because those are the things that might tilt the market one way or the other. Ted Jacoby III: When it comes to skim solids versus butterfat in the vat, and let’s not forget, with the increase in solids in the milk, especially in butterfat, you’ve gotten the ratio of protein to fat outta whack, which is driving an increased need of skim solids into the cheese vat. The real math is: do you sell the cream or you divide the UF milk? Well, guess what? The UF milk is getting a lot more expensive right now. And so, you can make the case that you might actually force yourself to be comfortable selling the cream because it’s really a question of do you overpay for the skim solids or do you lose money on the butterfat if you sell the butterfat. At lower butter prices, for a couple of different reasons, you need a higher multiple on the cream in order to sell it. And one of the big ones is cost of freight as a percentage of the butterfat price has gone way up. You compare a $1.50 butter to $3 butter and on a percentage basis, your freight costs are twice as much [00:11:00] now. Which ultimately, when it comes to surplus cream, will drive down the multiple that you’ll receive for the cream. Josh White: You know, I don’t wanna shift gears, but I do wanna spend a moment just thinking about the milk production response and if our outlook shifted a little bit over the past month or two. ’cause going into the end of the year, it seemed like the U.S. and Europe were on a collision course, a game of chicken to decide who’s gonna be the first to drop price enough to see milk production slow down. Our global milk production, what is it up like 3.8% or something like that going into the end of the year on a solids basis, and no real sign of major change in the first half of the year, other than some signaling from European companies to lower their milk price and try to slow things down. Is this recent rally, whether it’s a short covering rally or whether it’s temporary, is this pushing out that response, whether it’s in Europe or the U.S., even further than we previously thought? Ted Jacoby III: I feel pretty comfortable saying no. And the reason I feel pretty [00:12:00] comfortable saying no, is for a couple of reasons. The biggest one is nonfat milk production is less than 15% of the milk supply of the U.S. And so, this rally in nonfat prices, it’s affecting less than 15% of the milk supply. Translated over a 100% of the milk supply, it’s not that big a number. I’m not sure it moves the dial a huge amount. Maybe I should back up a little bit because it’s now the higher of Class III and Class IV and Class I, and Class IV was trailing Class III by a dollar and now Class IV is ahead of Class III because of this rally. So yes, you’re starting to drive up prices there, too, so maybe it is helping the dairy farmer in a couple of places. While I agree that you’ve gotten a sympathy rally with cheese and butter, unlike nonfat, there’s more than enough butter and there’s more than enough cheese out there. And so we don’t actually see a true challenge to accessing supply with those two. So, while you may see increased futures levels at the moment, I’m not sure that’s going [00:13:00] to translate for a long enough period of time, the increased price levels for those products. Josh White: Just to play devil’s advocate, I think if you ask the market if fresh production of butter was readily available, the answer might be no. Ted Jacoby III: It’s either one of two things. There’s a lot of 82% being made for export. Or you’ve got 30¢ to 40¢ of carry in the futures market, and if I’m a butter manufacturer, and I’ve got any kind of working capital, I’m making 80%, I’m parking it in my own warehouse, I’m hedging it out to capture that extra 40¢, and I’m telling everybody I’m sold out. Well, guess what? That butterfat is still available. Once you get past the old crop, new crop March 1st date, that math changes, that’s only a month away. And I would even say you’re talking about the shortest month of the year, too. Josh White: Cheese has the same forward curve right now. Maybe not quite as dramatic, but a pretty good healthy contango going forward. What’s different about the cheese market? Ted Jacoby III: Cheese has a tendency to have carry in it when prices are low. The market is more used to this kind of carry in [00:14:00] cheese. Jacob Menge: The shelf life too. Ted, I mean Ted Jacoby III: that’s, that’s, well, that’s right. That’s the second one is cheese ages. And so six month old cheese is a different product than 30 day old cheese. With butter, there’s a reason why the CME rules for butter is up to 12 months after December 1st production. Whereas with cheese, it’s basically a 30 day market. And that has to do with how the product changes over time as it ages. Josh White: When we’re thinking about the cheese market, we’re talking about the U.S. milk production being up, year over year a lot. We throw a little salt on that because we recognize we’re comparing against bird flu impacted regions a year ago, but still lot more milk solids. Lot more butterfat out there. But at the same time, we’ve added plenty of Class III processing capacity, at least through the middle part of America to process quite a bit more milk. How is the whey component playing into this right now? Do we think these plants are gonna be highly motivated to fill up because of the return they’re getting for the whey [00:15:00] products, despite the cheese, situation you just mentioned, or are we really testing that desire to wanna fill up some of these plants as milk volumes pick up seasonally here in the state? Ted Jacoby III: So I can answer that question with the same answer two different ways. The first is: Please don’t forget that the Class III price ultimately insulates cheese manufacturers from major movements in price. If they’re having to sell all that cheese at a substantial discount to the market, they could be losing money making the cheese, but the reality is if they sell it anywhere close to the CME price, it’s still gonna be a net profit or at least a net break even for them on the cheese side. Meanwhile, if they have a whey protein dryer and they’re making WPC 80 to your WPC 90, Josh as you well know, as our primary whey trader, those are very, very profitable for cheese plants right now with the prices as high as they are. Josh White: Unprecedented. Mike Brown: Gives them a little room with a higher class IV price because of that return [00:16:00] from whey to pay a little more than the spread might normally indicate that they would. Just as a point of reference, if you look the most recent dairy production numbers we have products is for November, but Southwest was down 25% I think, in overall nonfat dry milk production. And they were 70% of the decrease over last year. Ted Jacoby III: Yep. Mike Brown: And you still have some plants filling up down there. Although, again, we’ll see what happens with this spread. But to the point we’ve all made earlier, it is a supply issue. And there’s no question those south central cheese plants in Kansas and Texas are a big part of the reason that there’s less milk going into powder. Ted Jacoby III: I had someone earlier today make a comment, and I never quite thought of it this way. He was actually talking about cheese, but I think the exact same thing goes for powder plants. Because the solids in the milk is up, they need less loads of milk to make the same amount of powder. And the bottleneck in the process a lot of times is not the milk receiving bay. So it literally means they have to take in less milk to get there. If you’re out in California, those bottlenecks are limiting how much milk they can [00:17:00] process. In the Southwest, they’re not. Josh White: Right. Ted Jacoby III: But demand for protein, I’ll frame it this way: We’re seeing huge increases in demand for whey proteins. We’re seeing increases in demand for milk proteins. We’re seeing increases in demand for UF milk, not just by cheese plants, but by ready to drink milk bottlers, as well, who really wanna sell that high protein milk. And that is what’s driving all of this. And it’s driving it away from the nonfat dryer, and it’s driving it towards cheese, which is a source of protein, whether it’s cheese or it’s the whey that comes off the cheese. It’s driving it towards those UF milk plants. It’s driving it towards milk protein concentrate plants. It’s really all about that huge increasing demand for protein that’s driving this. I don’t think it’s that hard to make the correlation that this big increase in the demand for dairy proteins across the dairy spectrum is what’s causing this powder market to be tight. Because it’s pulling milk away [00:18:00] from the nonfat dryer. Mike Brown: Yeah. And certainly, you have a fair amount of MPC capacity, certainly in New Mexico. If you can make a protein, you’re making a protein, I think, whether it’s milk or whey.Ted Jacoby III: I think that’s exactly right. So, Diego, where do we end? We were below a $1.20 three weeks ago. We’re at a $1.46 today. Are we gonna get to a $1.60? Diego Carvallo: Ted, I do know that the $1.40 is a strong psychological resistance and the futures are very close to it. I’m gonna monitor it. I don’t know how high we can go. At this point, it seems like a train, and I’m not gonna step in front of it. $1.50 is not impossible at this moment, but at the same time, I could tell you that we could have a strong correction also. So, very difficult to read right now. Ted Jacoby III: We just talked about a real nice rally going on in nonfat. The rally we think is because the demand for protein is pulling milk away from the nonfat dryer. Meanwhile, I think we have more than enough butter, though it may not be available yet, in terms of new crop, 80% butter sellable on the [00:19:00] CME. We think that we’re gonna have more than enough cheese, colored cheddar, which tends to be the product that drives price on the cheese side. So, even though we have had a rally in both of those products in futures, we’re not as strong of believers in the cheese market and the butter market as we are in the nonfat market right now. So, before we wrap up, we’re gonna do a quick lightning round question. We just came out of the Dairy Forum. We had many, many conversations with a lot of different people. What is the one thing happening in the dairy market right now that we think people are overlooking? Josh, I’m gonna start with you. Josh White: The reshaping of how milk trades across the country. I’m certainly not in the best position versus our milk team to address that, but the changes in where we can process milk, how we can process milk, and who’s demanding the milk is reshaping how things move. And I think that’s gonna test some of our experience and historical expectations for how a market responds to some of the signals we’re seeing now. I mean, let’s be real clear. Over the past 24 months, we’ve been surprised as a [00:20:00] dairy industry by two major things. It was not that long ago that you couldn’t get enough fat. The dairymen responded and it surprised the market, I think, to a point where now we’re expecting to be a fat exporter for a while. On the other side, if we go back, not even 60 days ago, the argument was will nonfat break a dollar? Or not. And today, we’re talking about it being a very firm market and citing a bunch of reasons why that happened. And the market, I believe, was surprised by that. So, if you’re a buyer out there, don’t assume that these markets can’t change and change fast. Definitely make sure you’re preparing yourselves for that because we just went through multiple years where there was almost no risk of getting access to nonfat supply, and we’re getting phone calls now where people need coverage right now and are having difficulties doing so. Ted Jacoby III: Thanks Josh. Mike, how about you? What’s something that nobody’s talking about right now that we probably should be paying attention to? Mike Brown: I think from the standpoint of the cheesemaker and that cost of those [00:21:00] protein solids is a three four spread flipping significantly. We’re $2 the other way again now. That cost of fortification has gone up a lot. Even with a $12 WPI market. That’s a big number to work with. And I think just in general, the growth in demand, whether it’s ultra filtered protein, fluid products, or the new cheese capacity we underestimated how that would hit the supply of nonfat dry milk, and we’re now living that. Ted Jacoby III: Excellent. Thanks Mike. Diego, how about you? Diego Carvallo: I have two things. One is the dollar weakness is something I haven’t heard a lot of people talking about and how that influences the prices for all commodities. And the second one is, I think a lot of people might be overlooking Mexican milk production. Ted Jacoby III: Up or down. Is it good or bad? Diego Carvallo: From informal reports, it could be strongly up. Ted Jacoby III: Okay. That would not be good for nonfat prices, would it? Diego Carvallo: Correct. Yep. Ted Jacoby III: Jake, how about you? Jacob Menge: I’ll go with just the upending of all kinds of long held assumptions. If you’ve got calculators you’ve been [00:22:00] using, dairy market calculators, between the milk price formula changes between dollar weakness changing between us flipping to be a fat exporter, throw it all out. There are just so many of these, probably long held assumptions, those kind of things that people that have been in the industry a while probably have like, “Well, my gut tells me this.” Question your gut. That’s my go-to train of thought moving forward. Ted Jacoby III: I think that’s a good one. And I will say, I think people are underestimating what this whole breeding to beef thing going on with the dairy farmer is doing to their decision-making process when it comes to killing cows. Everybody’s talking about how low the price is. Everybody’s wondering when this price will recover. And I keep asking myself, if every time a beef cow is born, you’re selling that cow for over a thousand dollars, why would you wanna get rid of that womb? ’cause that womb seems to be making you a lot of money. To all of our listeners out there, thank you so much for joining us this week, and we look forward to talking to you soon. Take care out there.

Are you looking to save time, make money, and start winning with less risk? Then head to https://www.ovtlyr.com.If you have ever felt frustrated, confused, or outright burned by options trading, this video is going to hit close to home. Options are often marketed as a fast path to consistent profits, but the reality is a lot messier than the YouTube thumbnails make it seem. In this breakdown, the conversation cuts straight through the hype and puts the math, risk, and real-world outcomes front and center.The video reacts to popular options trading strategies that promise “consistent profits” and stress-tests them using expectancy, leverage, and actual trade mechanics. Credit spreads, iron condors, low-delta setups, and short-term expirations all get put under the microscope. Instead of just talking theory, the discussion walks through real numbers, real probabilities, and the uncomfortable truth about why many option-selling strategies feel good at first but quietly bleed accounts over time.One of the biggest takeaways is how dangerous it can be to structure trades where you risk far more than you can reasonably make. High win rates sound great until one losing trade wipes out weeks or months of progress. This video explains why that happens, how expectancy really works, and why “it works most of the time” is not a real edge in the market.Midway through, the focus shifts toward a very different approach. Instead of selling options and waiting on time decay, the discussion highlights why deep in-the-money options behave more like controlled leverage rather than lottery tickets. Intrinsic value, delta, and risk management take center stage, along with the importance of having a clearly defined plan for both entries and exits.To make it easier to follow, here are some of the core ideas covered:✅ Why credit spreads often violate the golden rule of leverage✅ How win rate can be misleading without positive expectancy✅ The real math behind risk, reward, and probability✅ Why selling options can trap you in dead money trades✅ How deep in-the-money options change the risk profileThis is not a motivational speech or a get-rich-quick pitch. It is a practical, sometimes uncomfortable look at what actually works and what quietly doesn't. The video also reinforces the importance of having a documented trading plan, understanding intrinsic versus extrinsic value, and knowing exactly why a trade makes sense before putting capital at risk.If you are serious about improving your options trading, reducing unnecessary stress, and building a repeatable process, this video is worth your time. Links referenced in the video include live trade tracking and the exact plan being used, all shared openly so you can see the data for yourself.Watch closely, question everything, and take notes. This is about trading smarter, not trading more.Gain instant access to the AI-powered tools and behavioral insights top traders use to spot big moves before the crowd. Start trading smarter today

On The Day Trading Show, Austin Silver breaks down what actually drives sustainable success heading into 2026: capital protection, consistent execution, and building a professional trading mindset. The conversation centers on how disciplined VWAP-based trading, proper risk management, and repeatable routines create long-term consistency — especially for traders operating inside modern prop firm environments.Sponsor:

This week on Talking Wealth, Filip and Pedro discuss the best trading strategy for 2026 as markets approach a turning point and evolve into something new. Knowing the right trading approach in this new environment will separate the winners from the losers, so get ready for a practical, hands-on breakdown that will give you the keys to trade successfully in 2026.

This week on Talking Wealth, Filip and Pedro discuss the best trading strategy for 2026 as markets approach a turning point and evolve into something new. Knowing the right trading approach in this new environment will separate the winners from the losers, so get ready for a practical, hands-on breakdown that will give you the keys to trade successfully in 2026.

Discover all of the podcasts in our network, search for specific episodes, get the Optimal Living Daily workbook, and learn more at: OLDPodcast.com. Episode 3408: Nick Maggiulli unpacks the rise and downfall of Atlas Trading, a group of financial influencers charged with running a $100 million pump-and-dump scheme. Through this cautionary tale, and a parallel story of extreme legal risk-taking, he exposes the dangerous allure of quick profits, while reminding us that the real pros in finance aren't making headlines; they're quietly doing honest work. Read along with the original article(s) here: https://ofdollarsanddata.com/trading-games/ Quotes to ponder: “Do not use followers as exit liquidity. Do not flex, or entice others to do your trades. Do not lie.” “The more risk you take, the more likely you are to see an extreme outcome (to the upside or the downside).” “In the game of trading, the only winning move is not to play.” Episode references: Jason Zweig – The Intelligent Investor column: https://www.wsj.com/news/author/jason-zweig SEC lawsuit press release: https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2022-219 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Discover all of the podcasts in our network, search for specific episodes, get the Optimal Living Daily workbook, and learn more at: OLDPodcast.com. Episode 3408: Nick Maggiulli unpacks the rise and downfall of Atlas Trading, a group of financial influencers charged with running a $100 million pump-and-dump scheme. Through this cautionary tale, and a parallel story of extreme legal risk-taking, he exposes the dangerous allure of quick profits, while reminding us that the real pros in finance aren't making headlines; they're quietly doing honest work. Read along with the original article(s) here: https://ofdollarsanddata.com/trading-games/ Quotes to ponder: “Do not use followers as exit liquidity. Do not flex, or entice others to do your trades. Do not lie.” “The more risk you take, the more likely you are to see an extreme outcome (to the upside or the downside).” “In the game of trading, the only winning move is not to play.” Episode references: Jason Zweig – The Intelligent Investor column: https://www.wsj.com/news/author/jason-zweig SEC lawsuit press release: https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2022-219 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Discover all of the podcasts in our network, search for specific episodes, get the Optimal Living Daily workbook, and learn more at: OLDPodcast.com. Episode 3408: Nick Maggiulli unpacks the rise and downfall of Atlas Trading, a group of financial influencers charged with running a $100 million pump-and-dump scheme. Through this cautionary tale, and a parallel story of extreme legal risk-taking, he exposes the dangerous allure of quick profits, while reminding us that the real pros in finance aren't making headlines; they're quietly doing honest work. Read along with the original article(s) here: https://ofdollarsanddata.com/trading-games/ Quotes to ponder: “Do not use followers as exit liquidity. Do not flex, or entice others to do your trades. Do not lie.” “The more risk you take, the more likely you are to see an extreme outcome (to the upside or the downside).” “In the game of trading, the only winning move is not to play.” Episode references: Jason Zweig – The Intelligent Investor column: https://www.wsj.com/news/author/jason-zweig SEC lawsuit press release: https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2022-219 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's one of the most common questions I get—and today I'm giving you my honest answer.In this episode, I break down what moving averages actually do, why traders use them, and why I don't use them in my own trading. We'll also cover when moving averages can make sense and how to think about them the right way—without the hypeMarket Mastery Recordingshttps://tieronetrading.com/market-mastery-recordings/Your Trading Coach - Akil

Are you looking to save time, make money, and start winning with less risk? Then head to https://www.ovtlyr.com.If you have ever wondered why there are a million different trading strategies online and somehow most people still lose money, this video is for you. Instead of selling one “magic” system, this breakdown walks through nearly every popular trading strategy out there and explains what actually matters and what is mostly noise.You will see everything from Fibonacci retracements and breakout patterns to candlestick formations, Elliott Waves, moon phases, and even some truly wild ideas that get pushed as “edge.” The goal here is not to mock people for how they trade, but to be honest about what holds up in the real world and what falls apart once real money is on the line.A big theme throughout the video is this. You cannot pick tops. You cannot pick bottoms. And anyone telling you they can do it consistently is selling you a dream. Buying stocks as they are crashing down feels brave, but it is usually expensive. Waiting for confirmation feels boring, but boring is what actually works over time.The discussion constantly comes back to math-based tools versus subjective tools. Patterns can look different to every person. Indicators based on price and time do not argue back. That is why trend structure, moving averages, and order blocks get so much attention here.Halfway through, things really click when real chart examples come into play. You can see how buying dips during brutal downtrends can lock you into months of drawdowns, while waiting for trend confirmation puts probability back on your side. The difference is not intelligence. It is patience and structure.Here are a few key ideas that stand out:✅ Why most traders lose money trying to catch the bottom✅ How moving averages strip emotion out of decision making✅ Why patterns are subjective but trends are measurable✅ How order blocks, support, and resistance actually form✅ Why boring trading usually beats exciting tradingThe video also tackles popular indicators like MACD, RSI, VWAP, volume profiles, and market breadth. None of them are treated as magical signals. They are tools. Used correctly, they add context. Used blindly, they add confusion.There is also an important mindset lesson baked into all of this. Trading is not meant to be thrilling. If it feels like gambling, something is wrong. Real trading is repetitive, structured, and honestly a little dull. That is exactly why it works.At the end of the day, you do not need every strategy. You need one that fits how you think, how you manage risk, and how you execute consistently. Once you find that, the rest becomes noise.If your goal is to stop chasing hype, stop buying dips out of fear, and start thinking in probabilities instead of predictions, this video will give you a much clearer framework for how to approach the market long term.Gain instant access to the AI-powered tools and behavioral insights top traders use to spot big moves before the crowd. Start trading smarter today

Join Michael Gayed, Melanie Schaffer, and the OptionsANIMAL team for a conversation about options trading, risk management, and the famous “George Costanza Trade.”In this webinar, they chat about:What the “Costanza approach” really means in tradingHow professional traders manage risk and avoid emotional decisionsHigh-probability setups explained in simple termsOptions strategies that work in volatile marketsActionable tips you can start applying immediatelyWhether you're looking for CE credits, want to improve your trading discipline, or simply want to learn new frameworks from top options educators, this conversation is packed with value.Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise#OptionsTrading #OptionsAnimal #LeadLagLive #Investing #FinanceStart your adventure with TableTalk Friday: A D&D Podcast at the link below or wherever you get your podcasts!Youtube: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLgB6B-mAeWlPM9KzGJ2O4cU0-m5lO0lkr&si=W_-jLsiREjyAIgEsSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/75YJ921WGQqUtwxRT71UQB?si=4R6kaAYOTtO2V Support the show

Are you looking to save time, make money, and start winning with less risk? Then head to https://www.ovtlyr.com.This session is all about patience, discipline, and learning how to trade with purpose instead of emotion. If you have ever felt the urge to chase trades, buy too early, or hold a loser way too long, this one hits home in a big way. We dive into the mindset of waiting for the right moment, letting the data lead, and trusting the plan even when the market feels quiet.You will hear real talk about breakout trading, momentum, and why most traders lose money trying to predict instead of react. The focus stays on buying strength, not hoping for reversals, and on cutting risk fast when a trade does not work. There is also a powerful reminder that being wrong is part of trading. Staying wrong is what destroys accounts.We walk through how massive gains are built by waiting for clean setups, rising volume, and proper structure in the trend. No guessing. No revenge trading. Just rules, patience, and execution. Along the way, the energy stays fun with Big Money Bingo, live reactions, holiday merch giveaways, and a community that keeps things light while staying serious about getting better.Here are a few core ideas that really stand out in this session:✅ Why breakouts work best when volume supports the move✅ How fast exits protect you from emotional damage and big losses✅ Why trends matter more than predicting bottoms✅ How disciplined traders survive where most burn out✅ What it truly means to protect your account and your futureWe also take a live look at market structure, sector strength, and breadth to determine when conditions are actually aligned for trading. The emphasis stays on confirmation, not prediction. When the 10 is over the 20 and price is over the 50, the trend earns your attention. When it is not, you sit in cash and stay patient.On the options side, liquidity, spreads, and risk are front and center. You get a real-time look at how trades are filtered, how expiration and delta are chosen, and why it matters to reduce risk even when a setup looks great. This is trading as a process, not gambling on hope.There is also a strong focus on mindset. Most traders do not fail because they lack indicators. They fail because they break their rules under pressure. This session drives home the idea that emotional control is a skill you build, not something you magically wake up with. Discipline is trained through repetition, not motivation.If you are serious about becoming consistent, staying in the game long term, and building a rules-based approach that actually makes sense, this episode gives you both the strategy and the psychological foundation to move forward with confidence.Gain instant access to the AI-powered tools and behavioral insights top traders use to spot big moves before the crowd. Start trading smarter today

Returning guest Vincent Bruzzese — trader, former statistics professor, poker player, and former Hollywood behavioral analyst — joins Tessa for a candid discussion about navigating one of the most narrative-driven markets in years. Known online as “Hari Seldon” in the Real Day Trading community, Vincent is recognized for posting his trades live and delivering multiple years of standout performance, with returns north of 60% and even 80%.  In this episode, Vincent talks about why traders are struggling with discipline, how sentiment and storylines are overpowering both fundamentals and technicals, and what separates structured trading from gambling. He also shares how tools like his walkaway analysis help reinforce better habits and improve decision-making. Tessa and Vincent dig into mindset, process, relative strength, risk management, and how he rebuilt after blowing up his account twice. They also explore the emotional side of trading in a market that often feels disconnected from reality — and how traders can stay grounded despite the chaos.   Links +Resources:  ●      Follow Vincent on Reddit:  ⁠https://www.reddit.com/r/RealDayTrading/⁠ ●      Follow Vincent on X:  ⁠@RealDayTrading⁠ ●      Vincent on CWT ⁠Episode 255⁠ ●      Vincent can also be found in the OneOption Chat Rooms Sponsor of Chat With Traders Podcast:   ●       Trade The Pool:  ⁠http://www.tradethepool.com⁠    Time Stamps: Please note: Exact times will vary depending on current ads.   ●     00:00:00  Intro and Background ●     00:07:13  Market Analysis and Trading Strategies ●     00:09:00  Trading Mindset and Emotional Challenges ●     00:11:07  Market Trends and Skepticism ●     00:13:08  Market Irrationality and Future Predictions ●     00:14:41  Valuation Concerns and Institutional Influence ●    00:15:19  Psychological Aspects of Trading ●    00:16:30  Narratives and Market Bubbles ●    00:18:00  Passive Income Strategies in Trading ●    00:21:57  Long-term Investment Strategies ●    00:21:25  Personal Trading Experiences ●    00:24:08  Learning from Trading Losses ●    00:25:12  The Journey to Becoming a Trader ●    00:25:58  Mindset and Trading Psychology ●    00:30:45  Identifying and Avoiding Bad Trades ●    00:32:58  Overcoming Trading Challenges ●    00:37:48  Trading Strategies and Market Analysis ●    00:40:52  Current Market Conditions and Trading Decisions ●    00:43:20  Portfolio Management and Trading Style ●    00:46:39  Trading Preparation and Daily Routine ●    01:01:25  Navigating Market Volatility and Uncertainty ●    01:05:41  Final Thoughts on Trading and Market Dynamics   Trading Disclaimer:  Trading in the financial markets involves a risk of loss. Podcast episodes and other content produced by Chat With Traders are for informational or educational purposes only and do not constitute trading or investment recommendations or advice. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Are you looking to save time, make money, and start winning with less risk? Then head to https://www.ovtlyr.com.If you've ever looked at a chart and wondered why some traders always seem to catch the big move while everyone else gets stuck holding the bag, this video is going to open your eyes. We dig into one of the most powerful concepts in trading: understanding the market cycle, spotting trend changes early, and knowing when to simply step aside instead of letting hope drain your account.We jump into the story of Zoom, one of the wildest pandemic-era rockets. It blasted over 550 percent in just 36 weeks, then slowly sank back to where it started. Watching that entire run unfold is like watching trader psychology under a microscope. Greed, denial, fear, capitulation, and finally acceptance. The video breaks down every stage and shows why buying a “great company” doesn't help if the chart is falling apart beneath you.The conversation gets into why the ten over twenty and price over fifty signals matter so much. They aren't meant to predict. They're meant to tell you the direction of the trend right now, which is the only information that actually matters. This approach is simple, clean, and brutally effective compared to buy and hold on individual names. It doesn't require guessing. It requires paying attention.Right in the middle of the lesson, a few key ideas pop up that every trader should hear:✅ Why being “right” or “wrong” has nothing to do with good trading✅ Why the public always buys too late and sells too late✅ Why opportunity cost destroys long term portfolios quietly✅ Why unlimited freedom in trading leads people straight into disaster✅ Why a rules based plan beats predictions every timeThere's also a section on the Bank of America chart that is honestly shocking. The stock took nearly twenty years to get back to break even after its big collapse. Meanwhile, following simple trend rules would have doubled an account several times using the exact same stock. Same ticker, completely different outcomes. That's the power of ignoring opinions and following price instead.The video also dives into stop losses, position sizing, and the difference between risking 100 percent with no exit plan versus risking 10 percent with a clear line in the sand. When the return on risk numbers are compared side by side, the gap is massive. Risking one dollar to make thirty six is a completely different universe than risking one dollar to lose sixty six cents.And yes, the psychology breakdown hits hard too. Most traders blow up because they think they need to be right. In reality, the only thing that matters is whether you followed your plan. A losing trade can be a great trade if it followed your rules. A winning trade can be a terrible trade if it didn't.If you want a simple, repeatable approach that gives you clarity around when to buy, when to sell, and when to get out of the way, this video is a must watch. It's all about reading what the market is actually doing instead of begging it to do what you want.Gain instant access to the AI-powered tools and behavioral insights top traders use to spot big moves before the crowd. Start trading smarter today

In this episode we answer emails from Phil and Chris.  We discuss moving from target date funds to low-cost index funds, why equity diversification needs a value tilt, how managed futures replication mimics an index fund in that asset class, options collars versus simply holding less equity, momentum models trade-offs and regime risk, long Treasuries compared with STRIPS for rate sensitivity, why TIPS don't hedge portfolio-level inflation and practical ways to fight portfolio-level inflation with value-tilted stocks and alternatives.Links:Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterMany Happy Returns Podcast Featuring Tyler:  How to Pick Your Perfect Portfolio, with Tyler from Portfolio ChartsPortfolio Charts Drawdowns Chart:  Drawdowns – Portfolio ChartsDMBF Video Re Dispersion of Recent Returns:  iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF Update with Andrew Beer | October 2025Bernstein TIPS Article:  Riskless at Age 104 - Articles - Advisor Perspectives ("A bond fund manager recently related to me his difficulty in figuring out the role of TIPS in his portfolios. After fumbling for a reply, I realized that he was right: like Social Security, they don't occupy a formal slot in most folks' asset allocation. . . . TIPS should be kept mentally separate from the policy asset allocation as well.")Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:Ever feel like your “set it and forget it” fund is quietly holding you back? We open the hood on target date funds and show how shifting to clear, low-cost index building blocks can recover real performance over the long haul. From there, we get practical about designing portfolios that don't just look diversified—they behave differently when markets sour. Think value tilts to counter mega-cap concentration, long-duration Treasuries for recession defense, and managed futures for trend-driven shock absorption.We also tackle the allure of complexity. Options collars can cap losses, but they cap gains too—and often mimic what you'd get by simply holding less equity and more diversifiers. Momentum strategies like GEM carry academic support, yet every rule set faces regime risk and behavioral hurdles. Rather than chasing perfect timing, we focus on roles: which assets hedge recessions, which fight inflation, and which compound steadily in normal times. That clarity helps you skip the noise and build sturdy allocations.On inflation, we cut through the myths. TIPS protect relative to nominal bonds, but they rarely shield an entire portfolio when inflation surges. If you want a real inflation response, look to assets with pricing power and trend sensitivity—managed futures, energy producers, and certain insurers—while reserving long Treasuries for growth shocks. We share why DBMF's replication approach acts like an “index” for trend following, how STRIPS such as ZROZ can replace some long bonds for targeted rate exposure, and why a global perspective makes U.S.-centric limiting beliefs easier to spot and drop.If you're ready to swap wrappers for transparency and replace clever tactics with durable structure, this one's for you. Follow the show, share it with a friend who's reconsidering their default fund, and leave a quick review so more investors can find these ideas.Support the show

Deezy investigates what many in crypto are calling the next Hyperliquid; EdgeX. the hottest perp DEX on Ethereum. Will there be a token airdrop? How do I qualify? What will my airdrop look like? Let's find out! 

Christian Carreon returns to Chat With Traders nearly three years after his first appearance, where he shared his remarkable journey through stage-five kidney failure and the discipline it forged in him as a trader. Today, he brings an even deeper perspective—on markets, on patience, and on the Box Strategy that has become his signature. Christian is a breakout trend trader who waits for compression, defines his levels meticulously, and only commits when price breaks cleanly from the “box” with tight risk and clear direction. In this conversation, he walks us through how his approach has evolved, how he sizes up with confidence, and why patience inside consolidation is the foundation of every edge he has. From day-trading futures for cash flow to swing-trading leading stocks for growth, Christian shares the discipline, structure, and gratitude that guide both his trading and his life.   Links + Resources:  ●      Follow Christian on X:  @trading_boxes ●      Christian on NinjaTrader Live ●      Christian on CWT Episode 254   Sponsor of Chat With Traders Podcast:  ●       Trade The Pool:  http://www.tradethepool.com   Time Stamps: Please note: Exact times will vary depending on current ads. ● 00:00 Intro and Background ● 05:23 Kidney Donation Journey ● 06:37 Recovery Process After Transplant ● 09:45 Mental Focus During Recovery ● 12:51 Trading Goals and Adjustments ● 12:09 Risk Management in Trading ● 12:38 Sizing Up and Position Management ● 15:24 Identifying Trading Opportunities ● 16:23 Market Conditions and Trading Strategy ● 17:28 Support and Resistance Analysis ● 19:00 Using Indicators for Trading ● 22:48 Influence of News on Trading ● 24:00 Box Strategy Overview ● 27:18 Adapting Trading Strategies ● 29:40 Trading Discipline and Limits ● 32:10 Managing Investor Funds ● 33:15 Handling Market Events ● 36:03 Investor Mistakes and Adaptation ● 47:04 Reflections on Trading Journey ● 50:34 Catch up with Tessa Trading Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a risk of loss. Podcast episodes and other content produced by Chat With Traders are for informational or educational purposes only and do not constitute trading or investment recommendations or advice. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Robert Grzesik is the founder and CEO of LumiWealth and BotSpot—an AI-powered platform that turns plain-English trading ideas into executable strategies, then lets users backtest, tune, and deploy with integrated broker connections. The ecosystem includes education, live workshops, and an algorithm marketplace to share and use strategies. He previously worked at Voyager Digital and Greystone and has led large software teams building secure, high-scale trading systems. Robert holds a Master of Finance and has 25+ years of software development experience.

Robert Grzesik is the founder and CEO of LumiWealth and BotSpot—an AI-powered platform that turns plain-English trading ideas into executable strategies, then lets users backtest, tune, and deploy with integrated broker connections. The ecosystem includes education, live workshops, and an algorithm marketplace to share and use strategies. He previously worked at Voyager Digital and Greystone and has led large software teams building secure, high-scale trading systems. Robert holds a Master of Finance and has 25+ years of software development experience.

Click here to register for my FREE Masterclass: https://autc.pro/TSSeng-pod?utm_source=spreaker&utm_medium=poden&utm_content=478&sl=spreaker-poden-478

In this Veteran's Day/Remembrance Day edition of the KE Report, we're joined by Jim Tassoni, CEO of Armor Wealth Strategies, to discuss current market momentum, tactical trading strategies, and where he's seeing opportunity amid a broad market pause. Key Discussion Highlights: Consolidation phase: Markets remain near highs; current weakness looks more like a pause than a correction. Trading discipline: “Know your out” - define stops, trim profits, and reenter when trends resume. GDX setup: Reentered at $73.65, watching $81 as key resistance for next upside move. Volume profile tools: Uses volume and market profile data to pinpoint support, resistance, and pivots. Metals bias: Long gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and copper; short crude oil. Equity stance: Long tech and healthcare (XLV); short consumer staples (XLP). Year-end view: Staying consistent - trade process over predictions or timing. Stock & ETF Mentions: GDX, SIL, COPX, XLV, XLP, SPX, crude oil futures.   Click here to visit the Armor Wealth Strategies website to keep up to date with Jim and what he's trading   --------------- For more market commentary & interview summaries, subscribe to our Substacks: The KE Report: https://kereport.substack.com/ Shad's resource market commentary: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/ Investment disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing in equities and commodities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.

Are you looking to save time, make money, and start winning with less risk? Then head to https://www.ovtlyr.com.What if you could actually learn to think and trade like a U.S. Investing Champion? That's exactly what this video is all about. We're diving deep into the mindset and methods of Mark Minervini, the two-time U.S. Investing Champion who turned a 155% annual return into a career that reshaped how traders see the market.This isn't another “get rich quick” clip. It's about what it really takes to win in the market — building skill, protecting capital, and learning from every trade. You'll see how the OVTLYR community studies Minervini's process and applies it to trade smarter, stay consistent, and actually grow accounts instead of blowing them up.Most people come to trading hoping for fast results. The truth? Success comes from mastering your process, tracking your results, and developing emotional control. Once you stop chasing profits and start protecting your capital, everything shifts. You stop reacting and start thinking like a professional.Here's what this episode covers:➡️ How Mark Minervini became a two-time U.S. Investing Champion➡️ The 10,000-hour rule and why experience beats excitement➡️ Why protecting capital is more important than chasing profits➡️ How to create and refine your trading plan using real data➡️ The risk-to-reward ratios that separate pros from amateursWe'll talk about what makes great traders great — the balance of patience, discipline, and smart risk management. You'll learn how to define a clear plan, set buy signals, manage stop losses, and keep a trade journal that actually helps you improve. When you have rules and data guiding you, trading stops being emotional chaos and starts becoming a business.You'll also see why Mark's CPA and VCP strategies have helped so many traders crush the market. These aren't just fancy acronyms — they're step-by-step frameworks built around market structure, stage analysis, and high-probability setups. The best part is how they combine perfectly with the OVTLYR mindset: save time, make money, start winning, and take less risk.At its core, this video is about learning how to think like a champion. You'll understand why consistency matters more than any single trade, how to build in failure without fear, and why the smartest traders in the world focus on protecting their downside first.Trading isn't luck. It's a skill. And once you treat it that way, you'll realize you don't need to predict the market to profit from it — you just need a plan, patience, and the right mindset.So if you're serious about stepping up your trading game, grab a notebook, hit play, and let's walk through the principles that have built some of the best traders alive. You'll see how applying these lessons can transform not only your results but also the way you think about the market entirely.Gain instant access to the AI-powered tools and behavioral insights top traders use to spot big moves before the crowd. Start trading smarter today

Welcome to season 4, episode 5 of the Stock Trading for Beginners Podcast!When I first started trading, I felt totally overwhelmed staring at price charts without knowing when to enter. Then I discovered a one-rule strategy that changed everything: only buy at support. After six months of trading real money, my portfolio jumped 144%, and I only spent minimal time scanning charts. In this episode, I break down this simple, stress-free approach that delivers real results—no fancy setups required. Listen to get the framework, then check out our free trading group for video lessons and examples.Resource:Join our FREE Skool group: https://www.skool.com/tradingKey Topics:Building a Watchlist of Bullish Stocks I start by explaining how to spot bullish stocks without needing screeners or scanners. Use AI tools like Grok or ChatGPT to generate a list of 30-50 stocks in trending sectors (e.g., Palantir, Tesla, Amazon). Plug them into TradingView, check for higher highs and higher lows on the weekly timeframe, and use the Ichimoku Cloud for a quick bullish/bearish confirmation—above the cloud with a green future cloud means it's a keeper.Learning from Past Mistakes with Market Structure I share my own story with Tesla: It hit an all-time high around $414.50 in late 2021, then shifted to bearish lower highs and lows, dropping to $100 by January 2023. I held through massive unrealized losses because I ignored technicals and focused only on fundamentals. Fast-forward to now in late 2025, and Tesla's showing positive structure, building a base above that old $414.50 resistance—proving why bullish market structure keeps you on the winning side.Identifying Support Zones for Safe Entries Once you've confirmed a bullish trend, I dive into finding support zones where buyers step in and prices are likely to hold. Use historical price data (like old resistance turning into support), plus tools like the Ichimoku Cloud, Fibonacci retracements, and Gann squares. Don't fear pullbacks in bull markets—they're prime buying opportunities for better risk-reward. I emphasize accumulating shares here to keep things low-stress.Taking Profits at Resistance (or Holding for Momentum) Finally, I cover when to sell: at resistance zones identified the same way as support—historical levels and indicators. If you like trading in and out, lock in gains here to avoid mistakes. Personally, I prefer holding through volatility in bullish stocks to ride the momentum, but either way, never buy at resistance.TakeawaysThis boils down to one rule: only buy at support in bullish stocks—it's shockingly simple but tough with emotions in play. I've seen great results personally, and beginners in our group are up and running with positive gains in weeks. Trading doesn't have to be overwhelming; this strategy proves it.Join the Skool group at https://www.skool.com/trading for our free course with video modules, weekly analysis, a list of 30 bullish stocks, and community support to see this in action.Send me some feedback!Join Our Free Community on Skool:https://www.skool.com/trading

In this episode, Akil Stokes shares how top traders stay ahead by constantly evolving their trading strategies. Learn what sparked change in his own journey, the key factors he considered, and how you can take your trading to the next level.Learn To Trade at www.TierOneTrading.comYour Trading Coach - Akil

Are you looking to save time, make money, and start winning with less risk? Then head to https://www.ovtlyr.com.Ever wonder how top traders make decisions so fast and so confidently? In this video, we're breaking down a $100 million trader's strategy that's built entirely around moving averages — and showing how it connects perfectly with the OVTLYR Trading Room playbook. It's all about keeping trading simple, data-driven, and stress-free.We start by walking through the OVTLYR trading plan. This isn't about guessing or hoping a stock will move your way. It's about following a system that helps you save time, make money, start winning, and take less risk. Once you understand the plan, trading feels less like gambling and more like running your own portfolio with structure and control.Then we'll look at how a professional fund manager actually works through the markets in real time. You'll see how quick it can be to check positions, confirm trends, and decide if it's time to trade — or time to do nothing at all. Because here's the truth: doing nothing is a decision when you're trading smart.Here's what you'll get from this video:➡️ How the 10, 20, and 50 moving averages reveal real market direction➡️ The simple way to read fear and greed levels to avoid bad timing➡️ Why Plan M, Plan A, and Plan ETF each serve a unique purpose➡️ How to match your trading plan to your personality and schedule➡️ Why consistency beats every “gut feeling” strategy out thereWe also dive into how Market Wizards like Christian Kolomaggi use these exact same concepts. You'll see how math, not emotion, runs the show. Moving averages aren't just random lines on a chart — they're the heartbeat of price movement. They show when money's flowing in, when it's drying up, and when it's time to sit in cash and protect your capital.Along the way, you'll hear stories about learning from legendary mentors, mistakes made from trading the wrong timeframes, and why every trader eventually learns the same lesson: if you stick to your system, you win over time.When price is above the 10 EMA, momentum's building. When it dips under the 20 EMA, momentum fades. Combine that with market breadth and OVTLYR's fear and greed data, and you can see exactly what the big money's doing before everyone else catches on.By the end of this video, you'll understand why the smartest traders treat the market like a math problem, not a mystery. You'll see how OVTLYR helps take emotion out of the equation so you can trade with the same kind of focus and discipline as the pros.If you're serious about leveling up your trading and finally seeing the market with clarity, this is where you start. Let's make the math work for you.Gain instant access to the AI-powered tools and behavioral insights top traders use to spot big moves before the crowd. Start trading smarter today

Tired of following other people's trade rules that never seem to work for you?

Making a profit from trading doesn't have to be complicated with TradeSphere. Vice President Kam Dasani discusses why TradeSphere is the right team to guide you in your trading journey.This in-depth interview can help you understand the ins and outs of trading today, covering topics such as how he became a millionaire by the age of 30, the biggest challenges facing traders, and how TradeSphere supports you throughout the entire process.Discover: https://tradesphereusa.comWatch the full YouTube interview here: https://youtu.be/baHtVBYtP1Y And follow us to stay updated: https://www.youtube.com/@GlobalOneMedia

Making a profit from trading doesn't have to be complicated with TradeSphere. Vice President Kam Dasani discusses why TradeSphere is the right team to guide you in your trading journey.This in-depth interview can help you understand the ins and outs of trading today, covering topics such as how he became a millionaire by the age of 30, the biggest challenges facing traders, and how TradeSphere supports you throughout the entire process.Discover: https://tradesphereusa.comWatch the full YouTube interview here: https://youtu.be/baHtVBYtP1Y And follow us to stay updated: https://www.youtube.com/@GlobalOneMedia

  This Weekend Show dives deep into one of the most volatile stretches for gold and silver in decades. With massive intraday swings and investor...

This Weekend Show dives deep into one of the most volatile stretches for gold and silver in decades. With massive intraday swings and investor sentiment whipsawing, Cory and Shad bring on Mike Larson and Rick Bensignor to dissect what's really happening - from retail speculation and momentum exhaustion to technical triggers and institutional behavior. Both guests share practical frameworks for investors navigating the chaos, and insights into what comes next for metals, equities, and the broader market.   Segment 1 & 2 - Mike Larson, Editor in Chief at MoneyShow, joins us to dissect the wild swings in gold and silver. He sees a likely short-to-intermediate consolidation rather than a bull-market top, and lays out how to navigate momentum—separating traders from long-term investors, using risk controls and staged exits, watching key support levels, and tracking the dollar, rates, and policy-driven critical-minerals news. Click here to find out about the upcoming MoneyShow conferences - https://www.moneyshow.com/   Segment 3 & 4 - Rick Bensignor, president of Bensignor Investment Strategies and writer of the institutional newsletter Supposedly Irrelevant Factors (and In The Know Trader products) wraps up the show discussing buying silver and palladium on the recent pullback while remaining bullish on precious metals, explains silver's breakout and backwardation dynamics, anticipates a short-term 5-8% equity market correction before another rally fueled by money-market outflows, and analyzes the growing retail influence and shift toward 60/20/20 portfolios favoring alternative assets like gold, crypto, and PGMs. Click here to visit the In The Know Trader website - https://intheknowtrader.com/   If you enjoy the show, be sure to subscribe to our podcast feed (KER Podcast), YouTube channel, and follow us on X for more market commentary and company interviews. Don't forget to subscribe and leave us a review!   -------------- For more market commentary & interview summaries, subscribe to our Substacks: The KE Report: https://kereport.substack.com/ Shad's resource market commentary: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/   Investment disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing in equities and commodities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests may own shares in companies mentioned.

In this KE Report Daily Editorial, Dana Lyons, fund manager and editor of Lyons Share Pro, joins me to discuss the recent correction and rising volatility in gold, silver, and mining stocks (GDX, GDXJ, SIL). Dana explains how traders should adapt as the metals shift from a parabolic uptrend into a more volatile consolidation phase. Key Topics Risk Management in a Correction - Why trimming positions into strength and rebalancing exposure helps preserve gains. Volatility Signals - The spike in the Gold Volatility Index (GVZ) warns of a turbulent trading environment ahead. Technical Roadmap - Using retracement levels and patience to identify when the correction may end. Market Outlook - Despite metals volatility, Dana's models remain bullish on equities, led by semiconductors, biotech, and select international markets. Click here to visit the Lyons Share Pro website and learn more about Dana's investment services.    ----------- For more market commentary & interview summaries, subscribe to our Substacks: The KE Report: https://kereport.substack.com/ Shad's resource market commentary: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/ Investment disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing in equities and commodities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.

Recorded on Wednesday October 22nd, 2025:   John Rubino, [Substack https://rubino.substack.com/ ], joins us for a nuanced discussion on portfolio trading strategies at this interesting point where gold, silver, and PM stocks have pulled back some after big moves to new all-time highs; but also as the market anticipates strong record Q3 earnings reports from the producers and royalty companies.   We start off reviewing huge runs higher all year long in most gold and silver equities, but that sentiment has shifted slightly more negative since the end of last week, as gold, silver, and the related equities have had swift downside corrections.   While most were anticipating a consolidation of the recent gains, the big drops in PM stocks starting last Friday and accelerating on Tuesday and part of Wednesday morning when this episode was recorded, caught some investors wishing they'd taken more gains.   John outlines that holding through any market consolidations is the best policy for longer-term investors, and that for shorter-term investors that there are a few different strategies one can deploy.   We discuss trimming back outsized portfolio positions to redeploy into other names that haven't moved as much, but John also highlights different strategies investors can utilize with options trading to hedge bets in either direction, and smooth out risk in more volatile price action.   Looking ahead to Q3 earnings, and the expected record revenues that will have been generated we touch upon a few aspects that may animate investors moving forward. Will investors keep bidding up revenue-generating stocks, expecting that the pattern of multiple consecutive quarters of earnings growth will inevitably attract new entrants into the space? Will investors sell this news, possibly expecting the recent corrective moves we've seen to keep accelerating to the downside and putting an end to margin expansion?   Even if gold and silver prices were to stay around similar levels or even head lower, John outlines that we'll still see the mining stocks improve and strengthen their businesses by using their growing revenues and cash flows to pay down any debt, buy back shares of their stock, increase their dividends, or make accretive acquisitions. We consider that, thus far in Q4, the average gold or silver price being realized is still quite a bit higher than they were in Q3, and so even if there was a further correction, it would still likely mean higher average prices for the last quarter of this banner year in the precious metals sector. It would take a massive correction in November and December to see lower average quarterly PM prices in Q4 than the prior quarters.   In addition to gold and silver producers, we review that the precious metals royalty companies have been seeing consecutive quarters of record revenues and cash flows and they have also been continuing their multi-year trend to higher valuations.   Wrapping up we pivot over to the big runups we've seen this year in other metals and critical minerals sectors from rare earths and antimony to uranium and copper. John is still very exposed in his own portfolio to uranium equities, and while he wished he'd have trimmed some back a bit more, he also makes the point of how the bullish sector fundamentals for nuclear power will likely still provide more running room in these stocks. He brings up the potential disruptive threat of thorium-based reactors to the sector, that they are experimenting with in China, and what that could mean down the road. John also highlights the strong fundamentals for the copper sector and how important that is for the electrification narrative, and why this trend still has legs. He also mentions that if solar gains ground on nuclear and nat gas power plants, that it would be a continued boon to the silver industry, and is worth keeping tabs on developments there.   Click here to follow John's analysis and articles over at Substack   For more market commentary & interview summaries, subscribe to our Substacks:   The KE Report: https://kereport.substack.com/ Shad's resource market commentary: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com Investment Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing in equities and commodities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.    

The Weekly Option trading podcast Episode 397 October 17, 2025   Welcome to The Weekly Option, a weekly program that offers practical trades and discussion for beginners and professionals alike.   The topic of the week is option strategies for earnings season.     In this week's show, we will cover the trades from last week… Continue reading Episode 397 Option trading strategies October 17, 2025

Host: Mark Longo, The Options Insider Media Group Co-Host: Dan Passarelli, Market Taker Mentoring   In this episode of Options Bootcamp, our hosts discuss a range of topics, starting with an exploration of iron condors and their various applications. The show also delves into the intricacies of the options market structure, including the limitations of siloed spread books and potential improvements like more frequent open interest updates. Listener questions lead to a discussion on scaling trading strategies for larger accounts, the use of payment for order flow, and approaches to backtesting options strategies. The episode wraps up with light-hearted speculation about Dan's mysterious middle name. 00:00 Introduction and Welcome 04:00 Listener Mail Call 06:51 Iron Condors and Trading Strategies 13:41 Crypto Trading and Market Structure 24:56 Concluding Thoughts and Farewell

Host: Mark Longo, The Options Insider Media Group Co-Host: Dan Passarelli, Market Taker Mentoring   In this episode of Options Bootcamp, our hosts discuss a range of topics, starting with an exploration of iron condors and their various applications. The show also delves into the intricacies of the options market structure, including the limitations of siloed spread books and potential improvements like more frequent open interest updates. Listener questions lead to a discussion on scaling trading strategies for larger accounts, the use of payment for order flow, and approaches to backtesting options strategies. The episode wraps up with light-hearted speculation about Dan's mysterious middle name. 00:00 Introduction and Welcome 04:00 Listener Mail Call 06:51 Iron Condors and Trading Strategies 13:41 Crypto Trading and Market Structure 24:56 Concluding Thoughts and Farewell

The best strategy is the one you can actually execute. Vibha Jha, longtime top performer in the U.S. Investing Championship, discusses the importance of figuring out what works for investors and how to keep doing it consistently. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Are you looking to save time, make money, and start winning with less risk? Then head to https://www.ovtlyr.com.Position sizing is the secret weapon every trader needs—but few truly understand. In this video, we break down the #1 rule that separates successful traders from those who blow up their accounts. You'll see how mastering your position size can protect your capital when you're wrong and maximize your gains when you're right. This isn't about hype or luck. It's about discipline, data, and survival.We dive into the essential role of position sizing in risk management and show why it's the single most powerful tool in your trading arsenal. Too many traders focus on the perfect entry or exit, but without proper sizing, even the best strategy will fail. The pros know this is the real edge. That's why OVTLYR traders rely on the ATR method to calculate volatility for every position—ensuring that risk stays consistent across Tesla-type movers and slower names like Coca-Cola.➡️ Learn how to size positions like a pro and never blow up your account➡️ Discover why consistency in risk is the foundation of long-term success➡️ See how ATR-based sizing adapts to any stock's volatility➡️ Find out how capital efficiency multiplies returns by keeping you in high-probability setups➡️ Watch the OVTLYR community in action with live examples and real-world performanceWe also explore lessons from the book The QQQ and TQQQ ETF Profit Machine, where decades of market data prove that simple, systematic strategies can outperform Wall Street's “buy and hold” approach. The 10-20-50 moving average alignment—what we call the OVTLYR trend template—is the backbone of smart trading. When price is above the 50, the 10 is above the 20, and everything is in sync, the results are explosive. These moments don't happen often, but when they do, they create life-changing gains.This video isn't just theory—it's proof. You'll see real-time data, chart breakdowns, and OVTLYR's Plan ETF framework, showing how traders are crushing market benchmarks while taking on less risk. You'll learn about volatility drag in leveraged ETFs like TQQQ, why it matters, and how to avoid getting crushed during downtrends. You'll also see how OVTLYR's signals, value zones, and breadth indicators simplify complex analysis into clear, actionable steps.If you've ever been frustrated by inconsistent results or emotional trades, this breakdown will give you clarity and control. Position sizing is more than a tactic—it's a mindset. It's about surviving long enough to thrive. You can't control the market, but you can control how much you risk, how long you stay in the game, and how efficiently your capital works for you.So if you're serious about becoming a disciplined, data-driven trader who wins consistently, watch this video from start to finish. You'll walk away with a system that gives you structure, confidence, and an edge that never fades.

Loving a strategy doesn't always mean you can trade it effectively. In this episode, Akil Stokes breaks down what to do when your “perfect” strategy doesn't fit—and why you shouldn't give up on it just yet.Learn to Trade at www.TierOneTrading.comYour Trading Coach - Akil

Chad and Jordan discuss the fallout of Joe Burrow's injury, how to navigate an injury riddled quarterback position, and the changing market after week two.  Plus hours of premium content this month!  You can get all the DTT Patreon content for $10 a month at patreon.com/DynastyThinkTank.Follow Chad on Twitter: @chadparsonsNFLFollow Jordan on Twitter: @mcnamaradynasty 

Chapters00:00 Introduction to the Inverted Market02:49 Understanding Backwardation and Contango05:24 Implications of the Inverted Market for Roasters08:20 Navigating Challenges in Coffee Sourcing10:46 Strategic Planning for Coffee Businesses13:33 Conclusion and Future Considerations  Part of The Exchange Coffee Podcasting Network TAKE OUR LISTENER SURVEY Visit and Explore Covoya!

We sit down with Huf Haus, founder of Pear Protocol. In this episode:  What pair trading is, the benefits of Pear trading, and different strategies How to approach different market regimes from a trader's perspective Applying trading strategies to other asset classes

Welcome to episode 149 of the AlphaMind Podcast. Unlike most episodes that feature seasoned traders with decades of experience, today we're delighted to speak with Blayn Marshall, someone who is still in the early chapters of his trading career, navigating the initial challenges and lessons that come with it. Blayn began his trading journey facing the common hurdles many new private and retail traders encounter—initial losses, steep learning curves, and the pursuit ofconsistency. Recognizing the potential of automation and systematic strategiesin today's landscape, he has shifted his focus toward building multipleautomated trading systems. Using a disciplined, low-risk approach, he is nowstarting to see the rewards of his efforts. What makes this conversation particularly fascinating is gaining insights fromsomeone who is starting out in a very different environment—one shaped by thetechnological advancements and abundant resources of the 2020s. Theopportunities, tools, and access to information available today create newdoors and perspectives that simply weren't possible even a decade ago, or whenmost of us began. We hope you enjoy this fresh, insightful discussion with Blayn Marshall.You can learn more about Blayn at www.blaynmarshall.com and catch his trading insights on his YouTube channel at https://www.youtube.com/@Blayntrades.AlphaMind: Powering Performance in Global MarketsAlphaMind brings powerful change, growth and development to people and businesses within global markets.Driven by a deep understanding of how markets work, and how people and businesses function within them, we partner with clients to create personal performance improvements that elevate returns across their trading activities.Go to the AlphaMind website to know more.

A look back at some of the classic strategies used in the stock market & asking ourselves the question of whether they can be translated to both other markets & modern times. Learn To Trade at www.TierOneTrading.com The Trading battle - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dYrb9UX3qc4Your Trading Coach - Akil

Send us a textFriendly Bear UniversityGet Profitable & Master Your Trading - Memberships & Courses Now AvailableFriendly Bear Conference 4Early Bird ticket for Friendly Bear Conference 4 in Los Angeles on 10/10/25 ft. Tom Hougaard. David's InstagramSubscribe for behind the scenes trading related contentDavid's X ProfileFollow David Capablanca on X!AskEdgarUse Code friendlybear for 25% off for AskEdgar, the new standard for researching SEC filingsFlash ResearchUse coupon code FB15 for 15% off Premium. Find your edge with the best stock analyzer Preorder David's BookPreorder David's book Disclaimer: This post contains affiliate links. If you make a purchase, I may receive a commission at no extra cost to you.