Podcasts about trading strategies

More from DTC: Watch the Traders "Cycle of Doom" Webinar: https://dynamictradersclub.com/webinar/ Take the Traders Reality Check Quiz: https://dynamictradersclub.com/survey/ Learn DTC's "Gold Rush Alpha" Trading Strategy: https://dynamictradersclub.com/ Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/dynamictradersclub Disclaimer: The content in this video is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Trading financial markets involves significant risk. #TradingPsychology #DayTrading #TheDTCPodcast #ForexTrading #CryptoTrading #TraderDevelopment

Ryan Mallory analyzes one trader's swing trading strategy and whether there are any flaws or issues with his strategy.Be sure to check out my Swing-Trading offering through SharePlanner that goes hand-in-hand with my podcast, offering all of the research, charts and technical analysis on the stock market and individual stocks, not to mention my personal watch-lists, reviews and regular updates on the most popular stocks, including the all-important big tech stocks. Check it out now at:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠https://www.shareplanner.com/premium-plans⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Welcome to the final pre-summer episode of the recurring podcast "Trading Tips with Jim", where market predictions and investment strategies are shared. In Episode 23, we unpack the macroeconomic forces signaling a major shift from inflation to a potential period of heavy deflation. With AI driving unprecedented business efficiency and oil prices poised for a potential steep drop to $40, the global market is bracing for a dramatic change.In this episode, I walk you through my recent portfolio rebalancing. We discuss why I am taking profits on tech giants like NVIDIA and Tesla, and rotating into undervalued consumer stocks like Dollar General and American Airlines. We also look at the geopolitical factors pushing the US Dollar higher against the Euro, and what this means for European GDP and global markets moving forward.Finally, we will review my recent struggles with Bitcoin trend changes, and check in on the $1,000 challenge launched in 2024 where personal stock purchases are tracked publicly.Key Highlights:The Macro Outlook: The transition from a super-inflationary period to potential deflation.Tech & AI: The impact of AI efficiency on market valuations and why I exited NVDA and TSLA.The Consumer Shift: My three-step buying strategy behind DG, AAL, Starbucks, and Chipotle.Global Economy: The strengthening US Dollar versus European political and economic stagnation.Crypto Reality Check: Navigating Bitcoin's recent drop to $73,000.Portfolio Tracking: An update on the public $1,000 challenge tracking personal stock purchases.Disclaimer: As the Founder and CEO of the financial analysis platform Stockinvest.us, I remind all listeners that trading involves a high risk of losing money. Please speak with a financial advisor before buying or selling any securities. Do not base your investment decisions solely on this podcast.Investing, Stock Market, Trading Tips with Jim, Deflation, AI Stocks, NVIDIA, Tesla, Bitcoin, Oil Prices, Market Correction, Consumer Stocks, Stockinvest.us, Personal Finance, Trading Strategies, Business News

Send us Fan MailThe FIFA World Cup 2026 is going to create some of the biggest Betfair trading opportunities we've seen in years.More games. More global attention. More casual money entering the markets.And that usually means one thing…Markets can overreact.In this video, I'll walk you through the Betfair trading strategies I'll be looking at during the 2026 World CupLate goal tradesFirst half goal anglesHow to avoid forcing trades just because it's the World CupWhat to look for before entering a tradeWhy team motivation, group tables and game state matter so much in tournament footballThe big mistake most traders make during major tournaments is thinking every match is a trading opportunity.It isn't.Some games are perfect for trading.Others are traps dressed up as big matches.So if you want to trade the FIFA World Cup 2026 properly, this video will help you think through the markets, avoid the hype, and focus on the spots where the data and match situation actually line up.Join Betfair Trading Community here: https://checkout.lightspeedstats.com/community-and-sports-5?plan=2Support the showTwitter: @BetfairTCWebsite: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/betfairtradingcommunity

More from DTC: Watch the Traders "Cycle of Doom" Webinar: https://DynamicTradersClub.com/webinar/ Take the Traders Reality Check Quiz: https://DynamicTradersClub.com/survey/ Learn DTC's "Gold Rush Alpha" Trading Strategy: https://dynamictradersclub.com/Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/dynamictradersclubDisclaimer: The content in this video is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Trading financial markets involves significant risk.#TradingPsychology #DayTrading #TheDTCPodcast #ForexTrading #CryptoTrading #TraderDevelopment

Send us Fan MailThe football season is over, but that does not mean your Betfair trading has to stop.In this video, I explain why the football offseason is one of the best times to start learning horse racing trading.A lot of football traders make the same mistake during summer. They either stop completely, or they start forcing trades on random leagues, friendlies, and matches they have not properly researched.Horse racing gives you another option.There are daily markets, regular opportunities, and plenty of data to test strategies like Lay to Back, Dobbing, Back the Beaten Favourite, Last Time Out Winner Lays, and more.The goal is not to guess on horses.The goal is to use the offseason to become a better trader.You can build discipline, test ideas faster, collect more results, and improve your process before the main football season returns.In this video, I cover:Why the football offseason exposes weak trading habitsWhy horse racing can improve your trading disciplineHow racing gives you faster feedback than footballWhy it helps you avoid forcing poor summer football tradesHow the skills transfer back into football tradingA simple way to start testing horse racing strategies properlyIf you want to use the summer to build a proper horse racing trading strategy, check out LightSpeed Stats here:Use this exclusive code at checkout: HORSEPLATUPGRADEhttps://lightspeedstats.com/signup/ Support the showTwitter: @BetfairTCWebsite: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/betfairtradingcommunity

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More from DTC: Watch the Traders "Cycle of Doom" Webinar: https://DynamicTradersClub.com/webinar/ Take the Traders Reality Check Quiz: https://DynamicTradersClub.com/survey/ Learn DTC's "Gold Rush Alpha" Trading Strategy: https://dynamictradersclub.com/Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/dynamictradersclubDisclaimer: The content in this video is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Trading financial markets involves significant risk.#TradingPsychology #DayTrading #TheDTCPodcast #ForexTrading #CryptoTrading #TraderDevelopment

Why are you really losing money in the markets?Most struggling traders spend months or even years hunting for the perfect "holy grail" strategy, thinking technical analysis is the missing piece of the puzzle. In this LIVE episode of The DTC Podcast, we pull back the curtain on the brutal reality of real trader development.The truth is, profitability is far more behavioral than it is technical. If you want the results of a professional trader but aren't willing to change your lifestyle, your habits, or your completely unrealistic time expectations, consistency will always remain out of reach.We break down the 6 hard truths you need to face, how introducing real accountability will completely change your results, and answer the ultimate question: Can anyone actually become a profitable trader?

Send us Fan MailIn this video, I walk you through a new football Betfair trading strategy tutorial that you can start testing for yourself.The goal here is not to guess games.It is to find the right type of match, understand what the data is telling you, and then use a simple trading plan so you know exactly when to enter, when to exit, and when to leave the game alone.Inside the video, I'll show you: What type of football matches this strategy is looking for  The key stats I would check before placing a trade  Why the entry point matters more than most people think  How to avoid forcing trades on poor games  Why tracking your results is the only way to know if the strategy actually works Most football traders lose because they jump into matches with no real process.This tutorial gives you a simple structure you can test, track, and improve over time.Try Betfair Trading Community here: https://checkout.lightspeedstats.com/community-and-sports-5?plan=2Support the showTwitter: @BetfairTCWebsite: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/betfairtradingcommunity

Manuela has been a professional Forex trader for more than two decades, and for years she traded discretionally, spending hours in front of charts every single day. Then an important question came up: how could she turn all that experience into something more solid, repeatable... and above all, transferable?That's what led Manuela to Unger Academy:

I Asked 6 Pro Traders To Share Their Best Day Trading Strategies (1-Hour Masterclass) In episode 560 of the Desire To Trade Podcast, you will be listening to six elite traders sharing their best day trading strategies. If you want to know what you need to stop or start doing to make a living through day trading, this podcast is a gem. The video is also available for you to watch on YouTube. >> Watch the video recording! Topics Covered In This Episode 00:00:00 Introduction 00:01:02 Boris Schlossberg: Sticking to one trading strategy 00:16:05 Kathy Lien: Fundamentals that work 00:30:12 Brian Shannon: How to simplify trading 00:39:50 Blake Morrow: When to adapt your strategy and add size 00:48:51 Ross Maxwell: Drawing support/resistance the right way 00:57:50 Dave Floyd: Breaking bad trading habits What did you like best in this podcast episode? Let's talk in the comments below, or join me in the Facebook group! Desire To Trade's Top Resources DesireToTRADE Forex Trader Community (free group!) Complete Price Action Strategy Checklist One-Page Trading Plan (free template) Recommended brokers: EightCap (preferred Crypto and FX Broker) AxiTrader (use our link to get a special bonus) Desire To TRADE Academy About The Desire To Trade Podcast Subscribe via iTunes (take 2 seconds and leave the podcast a review!) Subscribe via Stitcher Subscribe via TuneIn Subscribe via Google Play See all podcast episodes What one thing will you implement after listening to this podcast episode? Leave a comment below, or join me in the Facebook group!

Send us Fan MailIn this video, I'm going through a new HT/FT Betfair trading strategy.The Half-Time / Full-Time market is one of those markets most traders ignore because it looks confusing at first.But when you break it down properly, it can open up some really interesting trading opportunities.Instead of just asking:“Who will win the match?”You're looking at how the game is likely to develop across both halves.That means you can start looking for teams that:Start fast but fade lateStruggle in the first half but improve after the breakOften go in level at half-time but win the second halfDominate weaker teams after making second-half adjustmentsCreate strong in-play trading opportunities around half-timeIn this training, I'll show you how I'm approaching the HT/FT market, what kind of match profiles I'm looking for, and how you can start testing this strategy using real data instead of guessing.As always, this is not about blindly backing random outcomes.It's about building a repeatable process, tracking the results, and finding out where the value is.If you want to test football trading strategies faster, find better angles, and stop relying on guesswork, check out Betfair Trading Community below.https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/Support the showTwitter: @BetfairTCWebsite: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/betfairtradingcommunity

Send us Fan MailIn this podcast, we look at a simple Betfair football trading strategy built around finding a First Half Goal after 10 minutes.The idea is not to jump in from kick-off and hope something happens.Instead, we wait for the opening 10 minutes, check the game has started the way we expected, and then look for a possible first-half goal trade when the data, odds and match tempo line up.I'll show you what to look for, why the first 10 minutes can be useful, and how you can start building a shortlist around this type of football trading angle.This is not about guessing.It's about using stats, odds and in-play signs to make better trading decisions.Inside Betfair Trading Community, we help members build, test and improve football trading strategies using data, software and community support.Support the showTwitter: @BetfairTCWebsite: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/betfairtradingcommunity

When it comes to systematic trading trading, one of the most common objections concerns the reliability of backtesting itself. Many people believe that trading systems only work on past market data and that the results achieved through historical testing have no real predictive value. And to some extent, that criticism makes sense. Achieving excellent backtest results is not particularly difficult: all you need to do is keep adapting rules, filters, and parameters to past market data until you create a strategy that appears almost perfect. The problem is that, in many cases, you are not actually measuring the true statistical effectiveness of the strategy, but simply how well it fits the historical data used to build it. And this is exactly where one of the most common mistakes in systematic strategy development comes into play: overfitting. Overfitting refers to the tendency to create systems that are too closely "tailored" to historical data and therefore tend to lose effectiveness once applied to real markets. So does this mean that backtesting is useless? Absolutely not. When used correctly, historical testing is an essential tool for evaluating the robustness of a strategy and verifying whether a market logic actually has a certain level of statistical validity. The key is understanding how to build robust, simple strategies based on realistic market concepts, while avoiding excessive optimization and overly specific parameters. In today's episode, we will explore these aspects in depth, showing practical examples and discussing several useful techniques for developing trading systems with a higher probability of remaining effective in the future. Enjoy listening and happy trading!

Martyn's process. Dealing with common trader pitfalls. Defining steps and methods for avoiding over-fitting."Opt My Strategy" the Robustness Testing Application built by Martyn Tinsley. Up to 25% off for Algo Advantage Subscribers!! https://www.algoadvantage.io/toolboxMartyn's paper on his new technique, "Walk Forward Correlation A Diagnostic for Over-Fitting and Structural Edge in Trading Strategy Optimisation": Our courses, community & toolbox: https://algoadvantage.ioContents:00:00 Introduction and Setup02:02 Martyn's Trading Journey12:07 Transition to Algorithmic Trading20:02 Common Pitfalls in Trading30:11 Developing Robust Trading Strategies31:55 Understanding Parameter Optimization and Performance Metrics39:43 The Impact of Economic News on Trading Strategies44:38 Identifying the True Edge of Trading Strategies52:05 Noise Reduction Techniques in Algorithmic Trading01:01:49 Research Phase vs. Optimization in Trading Strategies01:07:33 Reassessing Trading Strategies01:08:00 The Importance of Statistical Significance01:09:00 Understanding Sample Size in Trading01:10:00 Methodology for Backtesting Strategies01:11:59 The Role of Edge in Trading Strategies01:15:03 Randomness vs. Genuine Edge01:17:59 Long-Term Performance and Sample Size01:19:52 Confidence in Trading Results01:22:00 Increasing Sample Size for Better Results01:24:01 Testing Across Multiple Assets01:26:04 Optimizing Across Timeframes01:30:01 Generalizing Strategies Across Markets01:31:57 Diversification in Trading Strategies01:35:05 Final Thoughts on Strategy Optimization

Send us Fan MailMost Betfair traders naturally look at the home team first.That makes sense.Home advantage is real. The crowd is behind them. The market often expects them to start fast. And psychologically, backing the home side feels safer.But that's exactly why the away team can sometimes be where the value is.In this video, I'll show you how to build a simple Back the Away Team Betfair trading strategy using data, odds filters and backtesting.You'll learn:How to spot away teams that may be overpriced Why the market can overrate home advantage What stats to look at before backing an away side How to use filters to build a shortlist Why you should test the strategy before risking real money How to avoid blindly backing away teams just because the odds look bigThis is not about guessing.It's about using the numbers to find away teams that have a better chance of winning than the market suggests.If you want to build and test your own Betfair football trading strategies, join us here:https://checkout.lightspeedstats.com/community-and-sports-5?plan=2Support the showTwitter: @BetfairTCWebsite: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/betfairtradingcommunity

Wondering if your trading strategy actually has an edge? In this episode, Akil breaks down backtesting, sample size, and how to tell if your results are real—or just luck. Learn the 3-step process to build, refine, and trust your strategy.Support the show by leaving a rating/reviewYour Trading Coach - Akil

Nick Valdez looks at a very bullish signal from the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence). It has predicted every bull run going back to 2011! Is this bull run signal flashing now? 

 key  topics   Rookie draft strategies and tear breaks Player evaluation and landing spot analysis Trading up and down in rookie drafts Player rankings and value assessments Impact of NFL draft capital on rookie value   Chapters   00:00 Rookie Draft Overview 04:11 Draft Strategies and Player Evaluation 08:54 Player Comparisons: Price vs. Lemon 15:16 Trading Strategies in Rookie Drafts 19:22 Blockbuster Trades and Player Value 23:44 Trading for Proven Assets 30:01 Wide Receiver Rankings: Tyson vs. Tate 42:18 Acquiring Marvin Harrison Jr. 43:08 Drafting Strategies for the Second Round 43:38 Evaluating Late Round Sleepers 46:51 Antonio Williams and Other Intriguing Picks 50:18 Chris Bell and Other Late Round Wild Cards 52:17 Quarterback Prospects Beyond the Top Three 01:12:11 Final Thoughts on Rookie Drafts   Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Send us Fan MailWant a simple Betfair football trading strategy for 2026?In this podcast, I talk through an easy late goal trading approach you can use to find matches where a goal is more likely later in the game.The idea is simple:Instead of guessing, you build a shortlist before kick-off using the right stats.Then, when the match reaches the key in-play window, you check whether the game still matches the strategy and decide if there's a trade.We'll look at what makes a good late goal setup, including: Teams with strong second-half goal patterns  Matches with good late goal history  Why match state matters  How to avoid trading every 0-0 or 1-0 game blindly  The stats that can help you build better shortlists  Why this strategy works best when you treat it as a process, not a prediction Late goal trading is popular because the odds can move quickly, but that also means you need a clear plan before you enter.This podcast tells you how to think about the trade properly, how to use data to narrow down your matches, and why tracking your results is the key to improving over time.If you want to build, test, and improve Betfair football trading strategies using real data, check out Betfair Trading Community below.Join Betfair Trading Community here:https://checkout.lightspeedstats.com/community-and-sports-5?plan=2Support the showTwitter: @BetfairTCWebsite: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/betfairtradingcommunity

Frank Holland and the Investment Committee debate the huge week ahead for stocks with mega cap earnings, a rate decision and a possible Fed Chair confirmation looming over stocks.  Plus, we are watching the Energy trade down big this month but still the best sector this year, the desk debate how to trade the space. And later, we hit the latest Calls of the Day.   Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

How He Builds Fully-Automated Trading Strategies In episode 557 of the Desire To Trade Podcast, you will be listening to an interview with Martyn Tinsley of Trade Like A Machine, a seasoned algo trader who shares how he spent years building automated systems—only to realize he was making things harder than they needed to be. He breaks down the process he uses to ensure a strategy's edge is repeatable before ever risking capital in a live account. The video is also available for you to watch on YouTube. >> Watch the video recording! Topics Covered In This Episode 00:30 Introduction 00:38 What's new with Martyn Tinsley? 04:09 AI in trading 10:21 Simplicity in AI models 12:43 Avoiding overfitting in AI models 15:57 Classical algorithm trading techniques 19:35 Optimization Technique 1 25:22 Optimization Technique 2 29:46 Walk Forward Correlation technique 32:55 Possible Outcomes 40:14 Martyn's research conclusion and future direction 46:31 Where to find more info about Martyn Tinsley (links below) What did you like best in this podcast episode? Let's talk in the comments below, or join me in the Facebook group! Desire To Trade's Top Resources DesireToTRADE Forex Trader Community (free group!) Complete Price Action Strategy Checklist One-Page Trading Plan (free template) Recommended brokers: EightCap (preferred Crypto and FX Broker) AxiTrader (use our link to get a special bonus) Desire To TRADE Academy Get a copy of Prop Trading Secrets (Author: Kathy Lien & Etienne Crete) About The Desire To Trade Podcast Subscribe via iTunes (take 2 seconds and leave the podcast a review!) Subscribe via Stitcher Subscribe via TuneIn Subscribe via Google Play See all podcast episodes How to find Martyn Tinsley Read more about Opt My Strategy (OMS) Exclusive Desire To Trade Discount What one thing will you implement after listening to this podcast episode? Leave a comment below, or join me in the Facebook group!

Send us Fan MailIn this podcast, I walk you through a NEW Under 4.5 Goals Betfair trading strategy training.Under 4.5 Goals is one of the most overlooked football trading markets on Betfair. Most traders chase big prices, late goals and risky in-play moves, but this strategy is all about finding controlled, data-backed opportunities where the match profile suits a lower-risk football trade.You'll learn:How the Under 4.5 Goals market works Why this strategy can suit patient Betfair traders What type of matches to avoid How to think about odds, timing and risk Why backtesting matters before using any football trading strategy How to build a shortlist using data instead of guessingThis is not about blindly backing Under 4.5 Goals in every match. It's about knowing what to look for, testing the angle properly, and using the data to make better trading decisions.If you want help building and testing Betfair trading strategies, check out Betfair Trading Community and LightSpeed Stats.Support the showTwitter: @BetfairTCWebsite: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/betfairtradingcommunity

Is this market setting up for another selloff… or a surprise reversal?Mike Arnold of Path Trading Partners returns to the Futures Edge for his monthly segment to break down the critical technical levels driving the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Russell, crude oil, gold, Bitcoin, Amazon, Google, and more. If you trade futures, stocks, ETFs, or options, this is the chart-focused analysis you need before making your next move.He explains why the market is still in “choppy bearish mode,” what needs to happen to flip bullish, and the exact support and resistance levels traders should be watching right now. The conversation also digs into how to trade around major headlines, why cash is a position, and why forcing trades in uncertain markets can be the fastest way to lose money.Timestamps:00:00 Introduction to Market Analysis and Key Participants00:53 Overview of Recent Market Support and Resistance Levels02:07 Identifying Overhead Resistance and Support Zones02:59 When to Enter Short Positions: Key Parameters04:06 Understanding Choppy Bearish and Bullish Modes05:47 Market Bias and the Importance of High-Probability Setups07:28 Trade Frequency and Capital Preservation Strategies10:20 Market Breadth Indicators: Stocks Above 50-Day Moving Average11:51 NASDAQ Analysis: Double Top Patterns and Support Levels14:23 Adding to Short Positions: Key Break Levels18:27 Russell 2000: Resistance, Support, and Trend Indicators21:59 Gold and Silver: Technical Levels and Market Outlook23:51 Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics26:48 Crude Oil: Technical Patterns and Geopolitical Impact30:05 Market Reactions to Binary Events and News35:42 Largest Holdings and Stock Analysis: Google and Amazon38:58 Trading Strategies and System Testing Principles41:10 Closing Remarks and Market OutlookNewsletter: https://unfilteredinvestor.com/Shopify Podcast: open.spotify.com/show/60zQnUdSfZC43ZNoUJjTVp Stay Connected With Us.Twitter (X) [Bob Iaccino]: https://x.com/bob_iaccinoTwitter(X)  [jim Iuorio]: https://x.com/jimiuorio LinkedIn [Bob Iaccino]: https://www.linkedin.com/in/bob-iaccino/ LinkedIn [James Iuorio]: https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-iuorio/ 

Send us Fan Mail"RAISE CAPITAL LIKE A LEGEND: https://go.fundraisecapital.co/apply"Wall Street spends billions on market data, yet almost nothing on the one "edge" that actually separates fund titans from the rest: the biology of decision-making. In this episode of Making Billions, host Ryan Miller is joined by 25-year Wall Street veteran and elite performance coach Evan Marks to pull back the curtain on the "hidden interferences" that sabotage professional investors.[THE HOST]: Ryan Miller is a fund manager, capital strategist, and former CFO turned angel investor in technology and energy. He is the founder of Fund Raise Capital and Aequor Capital Partners, and has mentored over 1,000 fund managers across private equity, private credit, venture capital, real estate, and alternative assets globally.[THE GUEST]: Evan Marks is the founder of M1 Performance Group and a former Wall Street portfolio manager with over 25 years of trading experience.  Evan is a renowned expert in emotional regulation and the "Aggressive Patience" performance framework.Subscribe on YouTube:https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCTOe79EXLDsROQ0z3YLnu1QQConnect with Ryan Miller:Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rcmiller1/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ryanmilleroffical/X: https://x.com/_MakingBillionsWebsite: https://making-billions.com/Support the showDISCLAIMER: This podcast is for entertainment and general informational purposes only — not legal, financial, tax, or investment advice. Nothing herein constitutes a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any security or investment product. Past performance does not indicate future results. Always consult qualified legal, financial, and tax professionals before making any investment decision. NAME NOTICE: "Making Billions with Ryan Miller" reflects the profile and aspirations of guests featured — it is not a promise, projection, guarantee, or representation of any financial result, income, or outcome for any listener, viewer, or reader. Most individuals who consume this content do not raise any particular amount of capital, and many achieve no financial result whatsoever. "Fund Raise Capital" is a brand identifier only — it is not a promise, guarantee, or representation that any member, subscriber, or listener will raise capital, attract investors, or achieve any financial or professional outcome. This show does not constitute a business opportunity, franchise, investment program, or offer of any product or service of any kind. No part of this show should be construed as a solicitation for investment in any way. Guest views are their own and do not necessarily reflect those of the show or host. Host and/or guests may hold positions in assets discussed. This episode may contain paid sponsorships, advertisements, or endorsements. Sponsored content is identified where...

Are you looking to save time, make money, and start winning with less risk? Then head to https://www.ovtlyr.com.The market's been rough… and yeah, it's frustrating. But honestly, this is one of those moments where stepping back and learning something new can make a real difference.In this video, we're walking through the momentum burst strategy and how to actually catch those fast breakout moves before they're gone. Not after the hype. Not when it's already extended. Right at the moment where things start to move.And here's the reality… even top investors are struggling right now. A huge percentage are sitting on negative returns this year, so if things haven't been clicking, that's not just you.That's exactly why this matters.We get into how momentum really works, why “gap and go” setups can explode, and how to avoid the traps that wipe people out. There's also a big focus on timing… because entering too late is one of the fastest ways to kill a good trade.Here's what you'll pick up along the way:✅ How to spot real momentum before the crowd jumps in✅ What makes a breakout worth taking (and what to skip)✅ Why buying strength beats trying to catch the bottom✅ Simple entry ideas that don't require perfect timing✅ How to manage risk without overcomplicating everything✅ When the market actually supports this strategyOne thing that really stands out… you don't want to be buying while everything is falling apart. The smarter move is waiting until things start moving up with strength, then stepping in with a plan.That shift alone can change how you trade.Also, quick heads up… OVTLYR tools are used throughout to make finding these setups way easier without sitting there scanning charts all day.Watch it through, take what clicks, and start applying it. That's where the real difference comes from.Subscribe to OVTLYR for disciplined trading strategies that actually make sense.

This week's roundtable brings together Lawrence Brisco, Chris Drysdale, Clay Hodges, and Zack Boyajian for a deep dive into the technical and psychological foundations of profitable trading — no matter what strategy or prop firm you use.Sponsor:

Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee debate how to trade stocks as the volatility in the market and oil rises. Plus, the desk share their latest portfolio moves. And later, we take a look at the housing sector as mortgage rates continue rising.   Investment Committee Disclosures Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this episode of the TraDeca X podcast, we interview one of our successful members Harry Blondell.Discover how Harry and our other members are mastering trading strategies for consistent success!

Are you looking to save time, make money, and start winning with less risk? Then head to https://www.ovtlyr.com.Most traders spend their time asking one question: What stock should be bought next? But that's actually the wrong question. The real question is this… what happens to a strategy after hundreds or even thousands of trades?That's where Monte Carlo simulations come in.In this video, the concept is broken down in a visual, easy-to-understand way, and then applied directly to trading strategies. Instead of trying to predict the future with one guess, Monte Carlo simulations run thousands of possible outcomes to see how a plan performs over time. The idea is simple but powerful. If the worst case outcome is still profitable, the strategy is probably built on solid ground.Think about it like flipping a weighted coin. If heads wins more money than tails loses, and heads shows up slightly more often, you'd want to flip that coin over and over again. That's basically how expectancy works in trading. Over a small number of trades, anything can happen. But over a large sample size, the math starts doing the heavy lifting.This is also where a lot of traders get tripped up. They judge a strategy based on the last two or three trades. But that's like throwing ten darts and expecting a perfect result. The bigger the sample size, the clearer the real performance becomes.In this breakdown, the conversation touches on a few important ideas:✅ What a Monte Carlo simulation actually shows about trading outcomes✅ Why a strategy can be profitable even with losing trades✅ How expectancy and risk-to-reward create a real edge✅ Why judging a plan based on a few trades leads to bad decisions✅ How data-driven strategies like those used in OVTLYR focus on probability, not predictionsAt the end of the day, successful trading is not about being right every time. It's about building a system where the probabilities work in your favor and then executing that system consistently.Watch the full video to see how Monte Carlo simulations reveal what a real trading edge actually looks like.Subscribe to OVTLYR for disciplined trading strategies that actually make sense.

Merryn Somerset Webb speaks with Simon Judes, chief investment officer of Winton, about how to properly understand quantitative investing. Judes attempts to demystify some of the strategies quantitative funds use to allocate capital across different portfolios. They also discuss the role artificial intelligence will play in quant fund research and capital deployment. Sign up to the subscriber event here: https://www.bloombergevents.com/ZZ3kna?utm_source=Podcast&utm_campaign=Podcast&utm_medium=Podcast&RefId=subSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is the fiftieth episode in the Crypto Hipster's Curtain Calls Series, which includes 3–4-minute clips from Seasons 6-8. This compilation draws upon my conversations with:Justin Banon, co-founder @ Boson Protocol (11/4/2023, Season 6)Marc Walton, founder @ Forex Mentor Pro (2/28/2025, Season 8)Sam Mudie, co-founder and CEO @ Savea (5/17/2025, Season 8)Jack McInerney, founder @ Renewal Coin (4/29/2024, Season 7)

Momentum Trading Alliance Cohort 2 begins March 7th.If you'd like to join this small-group mentorship and trade with more structure and clarity, book a call here:https://calendly.com/tylerstokes-com/strategy-callWelcome to season 4, episode 10 of the Stock Trading for Beginners Podcast!In this episode, I walk you through the exact stock trading framework I use — simple, rule-based, and repeatable. No flashy indicators. No complicated systems. Just clear rules that remove emotion and make trading surprisingly straightforward.Resources:Apply to the mentorship here: https://stokestrades.com/joinJoin our FREE Skool group: https://www.skool.com/tradingThe truth is, I don't spend hours staring at charts. And it's not because I'm guessing or moving fast — it's because the rules are already defined. Once you know when to enter, when to exit, and when to stay out completely, trading becomes much calmer.In this episode, we break down the full structure.What We Cover:The Real Problem: Emotional Trading Without RulesMost beginners don't struggle because they're incapable — they struggle because there's no structure. Entries aren't defined, exits aren't planned, and position sizes are inconsistent. That leads to chasing breakouts, buying near resistance, and reacting emotionally mid-trade.The Core Framework (Simple & Repeatable):Only Buy at Support — Never at Resistance If price is at support within a bullish structure, consider it. If it's near resistance, wait. This one rule eliminates many bad trades.Use Confluence to Confirm Support Look for multiple tools aligning (moving averages, Fibonacci levels, prior breakout zones, Gann levels). Don't force setups — let price come to you.Choose Your Trading Avatar Before Entry Decide if the trade is active, swing, or momentum before you enter. Execution depends on identity. Mixing styles mid-trade creates confusion.Journal Before You Enter Write down why you're entering, where support is, what confirms the trade, and where you'll exit. If you can't explain it clearly, skip it.Strict Position Sizing Scale in slowly. Never go too heavy too soon. Manage risk through sizing — not emotion.The Outcome:When rules are predefined, decisions become faster and clearer.No debating mid-trade.No emotional exits.No chasing.Trading becomes structured instead of chaotic — and structured trading feels completely different.The strategy, at its core, is simple:Buy at support.Use confluence.Know your exit before entry.Manage risk with position sizing.Don't chase.That's it.If you want to see exactly how this looks on real charts, join the free Skool community. And if you're ready for deeper implementation, live chart reviews, and structured feedback, the Momentum Trading Alliance mentorship opens again soon.See you in the next episode.Send me some feedback!Join Our Free Community on Skool:https://www.skool.com/trading

Key Topics:   The original Turtle experiment and lessons from Richard Dennis  Why and how trend following focuses on small losses and large winners  Volatility-based position sizing and risk management discipline - Diversification across equity markets, currencies, commodities, bonds, and individual stocks  Current market dispersion and what it means for systematic strategies  The psychological challenge of sticking with trend during whipsaws and drawdowns  The growing role of ETFs in managed futures How advisors can size and integrate trend-following sleeves within broader allocations  Key Takeaways:  Trend following is agnostic — it adapts rather than predicts.  Diversification across a broad global universe improves opportunity and resilience.  Proper allocation and manager selection matter more than short-term performance.  No strategy is perfect — understanding drawdowns and behavioral discipline is critical.  Learn More:  Jerry Parker & Chesapeake Capital: www.chesapeakecapital.com  Dantes Outlook's RIA & OCIO Services: www.dantesoutlook.com  Dantes Outlook Substack for ongoing research and portfolio insights: www.dantes.substack.com  Disclaimer: The information presented is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice nor as a recommendation of any particular strategy, allocation or investment product: before making any investment decision, you should seek expert, professional advice and obtain information regarding the legal, fiscal, regulatory and foreign currency requirements for any investment according to the laws of your home country and place of residence. Investing involves risk, including the possibility of loss of principal. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results may vary from any statements or forecasts. The information presented is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice nor as a recommendation of any particular strategy, allocation or investment product: before making any investment decision, you should seek expert, professional advice and obtain information regarding the legal, fiscal, regulatory and foreign currency requirements for any investment according to the laws of your home country and place of residence. Investing involves risk, including the possibility of loss of principal. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results may vary from any statements or forecasts.Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com

Dairy futures have been anything but calm. In just three weeks, prices across Class III, Class IV, cheese, butter and nonfat have surged, then whipped back and forth enough to exhaust even full-time market watchers. In this episode of The Milk Check, Ted Jacoby and the T.C. Jacoby & Co. team break down why dairy futures can look irrational, even when the underlying fundamentals haven't changed much. What's driving the chaos (beyond fundamentals) Short squeezes 101: how a crowded short can turn into a domino effect Flow first, narrative second: why the buying often hits before the story shows up Realized vs. implied volatility: what the market did vs. what the options market is pricing in Why nonfat may be the center of the storm: the team debates whether this is a true regime change Why butter and cheese moved too: how spread relationships and algorithmic trading can drag correlated dairy contracts higher Spot market feedback loops: how NDPSR-linked spot markets can amplify futures moves (tail-wagging-the-dog dynamics). What usually happens next: why squeezes rarely park at the top Plus: stick around for a director's cut featuring the unedited, behind-the-scenes debate the team usually leaves on the cutting room floor. Got questions? We'd love to hear them. Submit below, and we might answer it on the show. Ask The Milk Check Ted Jacoby III: [00:00:00] It has been wild and crazy every day for the last three weeks. Welcome to the Milk Check from T.C. Jacoby and Company, your complete guide to dairy markets, from the milking parlor to the supermarket shelf. I’m Ted Jacoby. Let’s dive in. We’ve got a special treat for you this week. We’re gonna drop the director’s cut of this podcast where we include some of the conversations that usually get edited out: how we debate internally about some of these market dynamics. So, stay tuned after the end of the podcast and listen to the off-takes. My name is Ted Jacoby, CEO of T.C. Jacoby & Co., and joining me today is Jacob Menge, our Vice President of Risk Management and Trading Strategy, Josh White, our Vice President of Dairy Ingredients, and Joe Maixner, our Director of Sales. We are in week three of a very high level of volatility in the dairy markets. We’ve had a very interesting last few weeks. It’s February 9th, and since January 15th, our Class III March futures are up 18%. Our [00:01:00] March cheese futures are up over 15%. Butter futures are up over 26%. nonfat futures up 37% and Class IV milk futures up 36%. These markets have not gone up in a straight line. There’s been a massive amount of volatility, a lot of green, a lot of red, and then a lot of green, and then a lot of red again, enough to make all of us who talk these markets on a daily and an hourly basis to be flat out exhausted. The question becomes, what’s causing this level of volatility?  We are gonna talk a little bit about market psychology. Why can markets do what they’ve done in the last three weeks, and why our actual fundamental market analysis hasn’t really changed that much.  To quote the famous British economist, John Maynard Keynes, “Markets can remain irrational far longer than you and I can remain solvent.” And I’ll tell you that the last three weeks reminded me repeatedly of that phrase. It serves as a warning against over leveraging or trying to fight the tape, trading against trends, suggesting that just because you are right about a trend’s [00:02:00] long-term direction, it’s useless if you run out of capital. Ted Jacoby III: And I have a feeling that based on what we’ve been experiencing lately, there’s probably a few people out there that exactly that happened to. It has been wild and crazy every day for the last three weeks. Jake, why do markets do this? Jacob Menge: You threw out your little soundbite anecdotes. We will pull out some more of ’em during those podcasts, I’m sure, because those are all written by people that have been burned by short squeezes like we’re seeing, right? One that sticks out to me is: volatility is the tax you pay for liquidity and leverage, and that’s what futures markets are, right? They are a way for people to express their opinion on price action. Obviously, even a hedger is in some way expressing an opinion using futures or options. They’re highly liquid. You don’t even have to pay full price for ’em because you only gotta put up that margin upfront. And again, volatility is usually the tax that you pay for that. When you have this easy leverage, and everybody can get on one side of the boat you can’t have your cake and eat it, too. You can’t [00:03:00] have tight spreads, you can’t have the leverage and smooth prices all at the same time. And that can result in things like short squeezes. We were primed for one. You’re right, we had low volatility. We had a lot of people that were short the market because that was the prevailing narrative. As a result, all it took was one little spark to set some pretty dry kindling ablaze. That’s exactly what we saw, especially on the nonfat side. I’ll pull out my second anecdote. I’ve always heard: squeezes are flow events first, narrative events second. That’s exactly what was going on with nonfat. Meaning we get this massive bullish order flow coming in. The market goes up 30%+ in a few week period, and it’s only after that happens that all of a sudden we start having these conversations of, well, what was everybody missing in nonfat? I think the market probably was missing something on the nonfat side. But at the end of the day when you have volatility near lows, volume that was [00:04:00] fairly average, it makes sense that really the only way to go is gonna be up. If there’s any kind of news. And the news this time turns out there’s a whole lot less nonfat out there than people probably expected. And away we go. And it turns into this snowball where there’s the first people to see that and start wanting to buy, and the second they start wanting to buy, turns out there’s not a whole lot of sellers there, because everybody that wanted to sell already had sold. You get that first nice air pocket jump higher. That really is that first domino where if you’re a market maker, say, and you need to hedge your book, you’re trying to run a delta neutral trading book as a market maker, you might say, “Okay, well hey, I need to go get some long delta myself.” And you might go try to buy some options, to buy calls, to offset that. And then all of a sudden the market maker that is selling the calls want more for the calls than they wanted just a day ago. Ted Jacoby III: A day ago? Try an hour ago. Jacob Menge: Yeah, an hour ago. Truly. And so [00:05:00] that would be what we call implied volatility. Right. And I think that’s one important distinction here is we have volatility, what we call realized volatility, which is what the market actually did, like how crazy the market is, and then implied volatility, basically what the market is charging for options usually and implying what the market thinks the volatility will be in the future. And that’s where it gets really fun because even though we didn’t have a lot of realized volatility, if the market thinks it’s gonna become volatile and starts charging more for these options, it can almost be a self-fulfilling prophecy, right? Because now you have to pay more to buy that insurance policy, and you can see how that snowball really can grow fairly fast. We have one other really  fun part in dairy markets that I can’t help but mention, and that is that we also have spot markets. Those spot markets indirectly are linked to the futures prices because of our National Dairy Products Sales Report (NDPSR) system. And so we [00:06:00] can really wind up with the tail wagging the dog in our futures markets and in our spot markets where, say the spot markets were driving the ship on the way down. People had a lot of products, they’re selling them. Well, all of a sudden, if we start getting a little bit of a squeeze in our futures markets, now if you have product, you don’t wanna sell it on the exchange, you wanna just hold onto it and capture the carry in the futures curve. And so you’re not gonna sell. And so any bidder on the spot auction has to bid it higher. And guess what? Now the futures see the spot auction being bid up and they say, “Well, well, we are right to be panicking. We need to go higher.” And that’s just pouring gasoline on the fire. We’ve already got a raging inferno at this point, but that adds the final pour of gasoline. Ted Jacoby III: You remind me of one of my learning moments 20 some odd, almost 30 years ago, when I was watching these markets, as the futures markets were just becoming relevant to the dairy industry. And it was the realization that futures markets and spot markets are [00:07:00] two different markets with a different set of drivers of supply and demand. On the spot market, supply is, let’s talk about butter, is the supply of 80% bulk butter. Demand is the demand for that 80% bulk butter. The futures butter markets, it may settle to that NDPSR price of the bulk butter market, but the reality is the supply is the number of people who are willing to sell those futures, and the demand is the number of people that are willing to buy those futures. And so you can have people coming into the market that really don’t care at all about how much block butter are out there because they’re actually trying to hedge cream cheese or a chocolate shake or something completely different that has butter in it, but they need to own those futures, and that futures market can move quite a bit and has nothing to do with the actual supply and demand of the market it’s based on. Jacob Menge: Anecdote number three. I always have heard squeezes feel irrational because risk systems are mechanical. And I think that is true here, right? You have stops in place. A lot of [00:08:00] companies will have risk management policies that say, “Hey if VAR gets to a certain point, you have to get out of your position.” Or on the opposite side, you have to hedge your product if something has happened, or you have to hedge your buy price if the market hits a certain threshold. And so, that can really send the market in the short run to some areas that feel irrational, but again, it’s because the systems behind it are mechanical sometimes and not even human. Obviously, the human factor makes things even spicier. But once your mechanical stops have all been hit, and the party is coming to an end very, very rarely — I’m struggling to think of one short squeeze I’ve ever seen — that actually goes to the top and then just starts trading sideways. It is almost always an overshoot and a retracement back down to some level. And that is really where our different volatilities really matter because on that collapse back to reality, and reality can [00:09:00] be very different than where we started, just to be clear, if nonfat started at a $1.20, and we go way up to a $1.60, and then settle at a $1.40, we’re still 20¢ higher than where we started. So, don’t get me wrong, right? Short squeezes, there’s usually some fundamentals behind it, but it’s that blow off top that we might say feels super, super irrational. And again, we’ll have kind of this realized volatility going higher as we are going up and going down. But the more interesting thing in my opinion is that as we’re doing that retracement off of this super high blow off top, implied volatility tends to drift lower. That’s actually an important concept to really understand because as implied volatility is moving lower with the market moving lower, it gives the market breathing room, and that is the point where we can really find equilibrium and come out at maybe the price we should have been three months ago, but [00:10:00] shouldn’t have been last week during that crazy short covering rally. Josh White: Hey guys, what should we make of the fact that our least volatile product over the past, I mean, what decade, 20 years, is the most volatile right now? Or is it is nonfat technically the most volatile product? That’s it. Ted Jacoby III: It is. Josh White: Yep, Ted Jacoby III: it is. Josh White: What should we make of that? I mean, that to me should be the definition of a market cycle change, right? Do we believe that? Joe Maixner: If the market with historically the lowest amount of volatility now has the highest amount of volatility, does that mean that there is a structural change in the way that the market is operating? Jacob Menge: Yes. This might mean regime change for the nonfat market. But we’ve also had these other short squeezes in butter, in Class III. We’re still in a volatile period, but those could just be because we have algorithms keeping Class III and Class IV in check. We’re pondering the question: is there this regime change in nonfat from a low volatility commodity to a high volatility commodity? It’s probably too early to tell. My [00:11:00] guess would be yes, we’re not gonna go back to this boring state nonfat had been in, because it’s just a very evolving market with what we’re seeing on the protein beverage side, you name it: the market’s doing a really good job of taking a boring commodity and finding these new, exciting uses for it. And, and so it kind of passes the sniff test. What probably doesn’t pass the sniff test is what we’re seeing on the other commodities right now: butter and just the Class III products, frankly, I should say cheese in general. What we’re seeing right now with those is they’re following along with the nonfat rally. This really seems to me like nonfat is in the driver’s seat. And I think there’s pretty logical explanations for why we’re seeing cheese and butter do what they’re doing along with nonfat. We’ve got algorithms that trade spreads within our market, right? We do have a crushable commodity. We can take Class III, Class IV, and break it down into its components. As a result, [00:12:00] there’s some opinions on, say the Class III, Class IV spread. And so if we get this massive rally in nonfat, well then any algorithm that’s trading the Class IV crush is probably dragging butter along with it. And now we’ve got Class IV rallying, and there’s probably other algorithms and other people with opinions in the market on what that Class III, Class IV spread should be. And so, even if the absolute price is seeming outta whack there’s enough people with opinions on maybe spreads or calendar spreads or what have you, that are causing the reactions that we’re seeing. Ted Jacoby III: This is the scenario that I can imagine. Everybody has been short, pretty much all of the dairy markets for about six months now. Maybe it took other people longer than it took us to realize that there was gonna be too much milk out there all over the world. But by the time we got to the second week in January, I think everybody who wanted to be short this market already was. Then people started to realize that maybe they weren’t entirely right about the nonfat market. Kind of makes sense if you think [00:13:00] about what we’ve been talking about over the last six months, which is: too much butterfat, too much cheese, but protein’s still really in good demand. Guess what? Nonfat is 34% protein. So, all of a sudden people realized, shoot, maybe the nonfat market has a different dynamic to it and it might need to go up so they start buying it. Well, that causes the Class IV market to go up. And if you have insurance companies that are part of the DLP program that are short this Class IV market, then all of a sudden it’s going the other direction on ’em and they need to go figure out how to get some length in the Class IV market. But shoot, they can’t find any liquidity in the Class IV market. So, instead they’re gonna buy nonfat and they’re gonna buy butter. Now think about it. Now they’re gonna go buy butter. Everybody that wanted to be sure at the butter market is already sure at the butter market. There aren’t any sellers left in the butter market because everybody already did their selling. And so now they’re buying butter, driving the butter market up. And then the last few people who sold the butter market, those who were late to the party, all of a sudden are noticing their margin accounts go negative. Now they’ve gotta throw in the [00:14:00] cash. Maybe they don’t have the financial resources to fund a margin call. And so now they have to buy their futures back, and all of a sudden it becomes this domino, forcing more and more people, for one reason or another, to have to buy back their positions. The next thing you know, you’re up 26%, even though the reality is supply and demand to butterfat, not just in the U.S., but frankly, probably in the world, hasn’t changed one bit in the last three weeks, and that’s why we’re up 26% right now. Jacob Menge: Crowded trades don’t break because they’re wrong. They break because they’re crowded. Ted Jacoby III: I like that. I haven’t heard that one before. I like that . So what happens next? You talk about markets being in strong hands and weak hands. Moments like this force everybody who is a weak hand out of the market, and so the only people left with a position in the market are the ones in strong hands. Does the market go back, and I’m thinking butter, not necessarily nonfat. I think we were all in agreement that the nonfat market has probably had somewhat of a dynamic change. I don’t know if it’s a 36% change, but it’s had [00:15:00] somewhat of a change. But now the butter market, which really probably hasn’t had the same amount of change, the supply and demand for butterfat probably is the same thing it was four weeks ago. And I don’t think you’re gonna find many people out there who are arguing that butter needs to be at $2, like the current March futures say it should be. So what happens in the butter market next? Does it go back to where it was? How do these short squeezes usually play out? Jacob Menge: As an economist, I will say the markets are a perfect system and they will find the exact right price where buyers and sellers meet and everybody is happy. The reality is, short squeezes are really good for hitting the reset button and finding a new equilibrium. And sometimes that is right back to where they started. Sometimes that is closer to the top of the squeeze than the bottom. I think we’re still in that reset period. I don’t think we know where equilibrium is on all of our commodities. It’s gonna still take some time, right? [00:16:00] Because let’s just run with the theory of cheese is gonna go back to where we kinda started all this thing in the $1.40s on the futures. It’s gonna take time for sellers to step back in the market and chew through all this new buy-side liquidity. This buy-side liquidity can come from risk management plans that are in place. And so it just takes time to find that equilibrium. But that is in theory what the market’s going through. Ted Jacoby III: I wanted to have this kind of a conversation because the reality is this was one of those where there’s a lot of people out there right now, they’ve got about half the hair they used to have. Jacob Menge: I don’t think we made them feel any better. Ted Jacoby III: Unfortunately. I know. Stay tuned for the deleted scenes from this podcast.  And now the director’s cut. Josh White: Protein’s demand has absolutely changed. Ted Jacoby III: All along we were saying protein demand was strong. To me, this is more about butter than it is about nonfat. Why in the world [00:17:00] is butter up 30¢? Jacob Menge: I think we need to gut check every single model we have in any spreadsheet anywhere. Josh White: A hundred percent. Jacob Menge: Because it’s a new era. Ted Jacoby III: I would argue though that, I mean, we can talk all day long about whether or not our market analysis is right or wrong, but the reality is this was everybody’s market analysis. Josh White: That’s the point we’re making. Ted Jacoby III: I think the irony is, I think the short squeeze had absolutely nothing to do with underestimating how much protein was going to fluid. I think it started for a completely different reason, but once it started moving, we all started looking harder at our analysis. And said, “Man, maybe we’re missing something,” and then actually found it. Josh White: That’s the part that I’m struggling with is I’m actually thinking butter’s easier to rationalize in my mind than nonfat. I think nonfat is a bigger story right now than anything else because butter, what’s the elasticity of demand? And there’s a shift in it because we’re exporting again. Yeah, it’s making it hard for us to measure, but we definitely have been cheaper. And so for it [00:18:00] to be buoying around for price discovery, to try to find that new equilibrium with seasonality, with different products and all that, to me that’s actually easier for me to understand. Like it drops from a price that was significantly higher. Upper twos even pushing three and exceeding three for a short amount of time all the way down to a $1.50. If we don’t think there would be some demand response to that globally and that we would have some retracement or volatility for the opposite reasons that nonfat is probably going too high and gonna have to retrace lower. That to me, like I don’t think we should be super shocked that butter’s doing that. You know what I mean? Like trying to find its equilibrium. To me that’s easier to explain. Ted Jacoby III: Completely agree with everything you’re saying, but I would say this. What we’re arguing about butter is, it’s a vagueness of knowing the balance where the equilibrium price is. We’re just bouncing around trying to find it. I think that’s different from what happened in nonfat. I think with nonfat, the market, the physical market itself, literally [00:19:00] couldn’t get what it wanted. Joe, did we ever have a moment when we couldn’t get the butter we wanted? Before the run started, could you get all the butter you wanted? Joe Maixner: Not off exchange. Josh White: Not 80% fresh salted product. It was being hoarded, right? Joe Maixner: There’s multiple facets to this, right? Like yes, you cannot get any 80% fresh salt right now. But we’re also struggling on getting any old crop, 80% salt off of exchange right now because the old crop situation is much different than it was back when old crop was an actual market mover. Five years ago, all the old crop butter was only at a 12 month shelf life on domestic salted. Everyone’s gone to a 18 or 24 month shelf life. So the product’s still good off exchange for a lot longer than it used to be. So nobody’s out there needing to technically dump it at this point in time if you don’t have a sale for it, because you could still use it off exchange. For a brief period, yes, the salted market got tight, but it’s also because we had the carry in [00:20:00] the market that we had, right? We had the 20¢, 30¢ carry in the market. So, whether you had new crop, old crop, whatever, why would you sell it at a $1.35 in January when you could sell it for a $1.75 a $1.80 in March at that time? Now, we’ve come down, you know, now we’re at a $1.83 in March right now, but at one point we were at $2.00 on March futures with this rally. It’s simple economics. You can carry the products for 3¢ a month and you can make 14¢ to 25¢ depending on the month you wanna sell it in or you let it go for way too cheap. Ted Jacoby III: I hear you. But to me, that’s wholesaler math, that’s trader math. At the end user level, at the people who consume butter, has there been a fundamental shift in how much butter is being consumed? Joe Maixner: No, I don’t think so. Ted Jacoby III: Whereas I think when we’re talking about nonfat and especially the protein in nonfat, I think there has been. It actually manifested itself as a lower amount of supply in nonfat. But I think what’s happened is we were [00:21:00] taking that protein away from the nonfat dryer and using it somewhere else. Whereas with butter, I don’t think that’s happened. Joe Maixner: No, but at the same time, I think that there’s similarities between butter and nonfat, whereas people came into this year structurally short. They didn’t contract because they anticipated the supply to be there. Ted Jacoby III: And then everybody showed up, that’s essentially being short the market. Joe Maixner: Yeah. Ted Jacoby III: When I talk about how everybody who wanted to be short this market was already short this market, so there were no more sellers left to sell. So when somebody wanted to start buying, there was nobody to sell. Joe Maixner: I mean, ultimately you’re just explaining the classic short squeeze. Ted Jacoby III: Right? To me though, that is what we’re dealing with. That’s what we’ve been dealing with right now. That’s what the short squeeze is. It wasn’t just everybody was short this market. Then they were ready to start buying ’cause the market was low enough. Then they found there wasn’t anybody left to buy from ’cause everybody had already sold everything they wanted to sell. And that caused the short squeeze, without any real rationality of there being a fundamental change in demand or supply. It was all at the wholesale [00:22:00] level. Whereas with nonfat, I would argue that the market came to a realization that we were pulling protein away from the dryer to sell it into liquid UF, causing a fundamental shift in the actual supply and demand balance, whereas I don’t necessarily think that happened with butter. With butter, I think it was just the noise in the middle of people making choices about being long or short of market. I don’t, am I making any sense? Joe Maixner: I think you’re getting to the point where you’re talking in circles, if I’m being honest. Ted Jacoby III: To me there’s a difference between talking tactics and talking trading strategy and talking about a fundamental supply demand analysis. Josh White: I think it’ll make a compelling podcast for those that are wondering what’s going on. I genuinely mean that. Ted Jacoby III: We might actually want to have the 15 minute version of talking about what happened in market psychology. Then have an appendix to it capturing the discussion as to what is the real difference between what’s going on in butter and nonfat. Josh White: Or how do [00:23:00] these guys communicate when the makeup’s off? Joe Maixner: I think we leave, I think we leave it all in.

Welcome to season 4, episode 8 of the Stock Trading for Beginners Podcast!In this episode, we break down why your trading strategy usually isn't the real problem—and what actually causes traders to struggle with consistency.Resources:Join the mentorship waitlist here: https://stokestrades.com/joinJoin our FREE Skool group: https://www.skool.com/tradingAfter years of studying trading and running an eight-week mentorship with live chart reviews and implementation calls, the same issues kept showing up again and again. Not confusion about strategy, but emotions, unclear rules, and misaligned trading styles.We'll talk about why trading becomes emotional without structure, how rules and journaling reduce stress, why identifying your trading avatar matters, and how risk management, leverage, and patience play a major role in long-term success.Key Topics:Why Trading Becomes Emotional Without predefined rules, traders struggle most at exits. Uncertainty around when to sell, add, or hold creates stress—especially during pullbacks or volatile markets.Define Entries and Exits Before the Trade Writing down why you're entering and when you'll exit—before placing the trade—dramatically reduces emotional decision-making. A core rule of this strategy: only buy at support, never at resistance.Trading Avatars and Identity Knowing whether you're an active trader, swing trader, or momentum trader determines how you manage profits, volatility, and pullbacks. Aligning exits with your personality removes second-guessing.The Power of Journaling A simple journal (stock, support level, confluence, avatar, emotions, exit plan) helps confirm that trades are rule-based—not emotional—and keeps you disciplined during daily price noise.Risk Management, Leverage, and Options Overleveraging and misunderstanding margin or options increases stress and risk. Consistent position sizing and avoiding unnecessary leverage helps traders stay calm during normal retracements.Patience Pays This strategy rewards patience—waiting for stocks to retrace into support instead of chasing extended moves. Markets never move straight up, and strong support zones offer better risk-to-reward opportunities.TakeawaysYour strategy isn't usually the issue—lack of structure is. Define your rules before entering, know your trading avatar, journal every trade, manage risk carefully, and let price come to you. When trading is calm and mechanical, probabilities are allowed to play out.If you're not already part of our free Skool community, you'll find the link in the show notes. We also open our mentorship group every few months—join the waitlist for the next cohort starting in early March.See you in the next episode!Send me some feedback!Join Our Free Community on Skool:https://www.skool.com/trading

In this video, I answer three of the biggest questions traders have when it comes to their trading strategy. Thanks for your support, please remember to LIKE & FOLLOW the podcast!Your Trading Coach - Akil

Nonfat prices have moved sharply higher in recent weeks. But the rally isn’t being driven by a sudden surge in demand. It’s being driven by a breakdown in where milk is actually flowing. In this episode of The Milk Check, Ted Jacoby III and the Jacoby team unpack insights coming out of the IDFA Dairy Forum in Palm Springs and explain why nonfat prices have surged nearly 25 cents in just weeks, even as milk production remains strong. The issue isn’t price resistance. It’s availability. Milk that the market expected to move into dryers is instead being diverted into cheese plants, ultra-filtration, whey proteins and other higher-value protein streams. As a result, powder supply is far tighter than headline production numbers suggest. Layer in heavy short positioning, processing disruptions, and new offtake agreements, and the market begins to resemble a classic short squeeze. In this conversation, the team breaks down what’s actually driving NDFM and why higher prices haven’t unlocked new supply. We cover: How protein economics are pulling milk away from powder Why rising milk production hasn’t translated into greater availability Key structural differences between the U.S., Europe, and New Zealand Where the market may find its next equilibrium, and what could disrupt it If you’re relying on historical assumptions about nonfat availability, this episode explains why those assumptions may no longer hold. Listen to The Milk Check to understand what the evolving nonfat landscape means for pricing risk, exports and coverage decisions ahead. Available below or on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Podcasts or YouTube. Got questions? We'd love to hear them. Submit below, and we might answer it on the show. Ask The Milk Check Jacob Menge: [00:00:00] There are just so many of these long-held assumptions, things that people who have been in the industry a while probably have, like, “Well, my gut tells me this.” Question your gut. Ted Jacoby III: Welcome to the Milk Check from T.C. Jacoby and Company, your complete guide to dairy markets, from the milking parlor to the supermarket shelf. I’m Ted Jacoby. Let’s dive in. It is January 30th. We’ve all just got back from the Dairy Forum in Palm Springs, where it was a hell of a lot warmer than it is here in frigid St. Louis, Missouri. Joining me today is Diego Carvallo, the head of our international sales team and our head non -fat dry milk trader. We have Josh White, head of our dairy ingredients group, Jacob Menge, our VP of risk Management and Trading Strategy, and Mike Brown, VP of Jacoby Dairy Market Intelligence. Guys, welcome. What did we learn in Palm Springs? I think the biggest thing that came out of our visit and running into everybody at the Dairy Forum is that nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder really is tight. We have a short squeeze going on in the nonfat dry milk [00:01:00] market. The market is up. I think it’s 25 cents in the last three weeks. I’ll let Diego explain to everybody what’s really going on in the nonfat market right now. Diego? Diego Carvallo: Ted, that’s a very loaded question right now. Everybody’s scratching their heads. As of right now, today, Friday the 30th, the market just closed. The whole strip is limit up — 4 cents up. I think I hadn’t seen this in quite some time. IDFA was very interesting for a lot of people to discover why the spot market has been tight for this long and have good discussions on what the outlook looks like. Let’s start with the fundamentals. I think a few things are helping this market and supporting it and pushing it higher. The first one is what a lot of people are discussing, which is the amount of UF being produced in regions like the Midwest. We all know that many of the plants have installed new capacity to have UF sales, and those solids are in great demand [00:02:00] for cheese fortification right now. So that’s one of the reasons why the Midwest especially feeling this tight. Another reason is that the majority of the people who speculate with this market, and it goes from traders to manufacturers and even distributors, most of them have been short, expecting this market to move lower during the spring flush. I remember a few months ago, the speculation was that we were gonna break the $1. And, it seems like everybody got short, physical and in the screen, and that market, obviously, whenever we saw a bounce, everybody ran to cover their shorts, right? Another reason is that we saw a few interruptions in processing capacity, especially in California during the months of November. I think that also contributed to the tightness in the market without even getting into the conversation of new [00:03:00] offtake agreements that have taken up this year. So I think those are the main contributors to this market moving higher, and I think it’s something that is mainly affecting the U.S. The rest of the market is following through. I think this scenario is very different when you talk about European and New Zealand production. It’s even different when you see the U.S., the West Coast versus the rest of the country. Ted Jacoby III: Tell me about Europe. I know Europe started acting tight a little bit before the U.S., but what’s going on in Europe? Nonfat, dry milk and skim milk powder is probably our most global market when it comes to dairy. Diego Carvallo: So, Europe had a couple of large tenders that took place, I think that was beginning of January. So, the infamous O’Neill tender and a few similar tenders that usually move a lot of product. Those tenders took place, and I think it helped clear some of the excess product that was available in the market. But I think in Europe we had a similar situation where most of the traders, most [00:04:00] of the end users and manufacturers, everybody was expecting prices to move lower, right? Whenever we saw these tenders coming and the market slightly turned less bearish, I think everybody ran also to cover their shorts. But the situation in Europe has not been as bullish as it has in the U.S. The spread between the U.S. and Europe when it comes to skim has in fact widened as of right now. Europe is also feeling the support. Definitely. It’s in part driven by the U.S. rally. Ted Jacoby III: Well, that makes sense. I can tell you I had conversations with a few different manufacturers while I was at IDFA. And the best way I can sum up what the feeling was there’s a couple of dryers on the East Coast. Those dryers at this point are not expecting to ever run full this year, not even at the height of the flush, because there’s three new plants at various stages of development. There’s a new cheese plant in New York. There is a Fair Life milk plant in New York, and then ultimately a yogurt plant in New [00:05:00] York. All three of those plants are gonna need the milk. It’s gonna come at the expense of the powder plants in that area. You look at the Southwest in Texas again, you’ve got two new cheese plants that are still in the midst of ramping up. They are getting first dibs on the milk at the expense of the nonfat dry milk plants down there. So those plants are gonna get the milk that they expected. And there’s another nonfat plant that pretty much has turned a 100%, to Diego’s point that’s turned a 100% of their milk supply into skim UF that they’re supplying to various sources. And that plant is running the ultra filtration unit full. So, that plant isn’t drying anything. You got a couple of dryers in the Michigan area. They’re not running as full as usually, but it’s more of a domino effect there. I have a hunch as you get into the flush, those dryers may fill up. But you’ve got four other dryers, maybe five that aren’t. Now you go over to the west coast: California, those are drying. But California alone, as big as it is, is not enough to offset how much milk is not running into the dryers in the [00:06:00] rest of the country. And then you’ve got the Northwest, where there has been a lot of milk lost in the Northwest. And so that dryer isn’t running as full as probably previously expected. What happened was everybody just got together, finally started talking when they were all together in Palm Springs, and they realized when they did the math, even if we’re up 4.4% in milk production, we’re not drying more nonfat. Those skim solids are going elsewhere for various reasons. Diego Carvallo: The biggest question right now, Ted, is the lack of product in the Midwest and East Coast could balance out the lack of exports that we’re gonna have from this price rally. The numbers say that demand is approximately 60 million pounds. That number, it’s probably only 2% to 3% of U.S. nonfat production. So, it doesn’t seem like a huge number, but when you compare it to exports it is quite a volume. Ted Jacoby III: It really does add up. Yeah, no, I would agree with that. Jacob Menge: It sounds based on what Ted had just laid out and what you had said earlier, Diego, that this [00:07:00] isn’t necessarily a demand-driven rally. It’s really a lack-of-supply-driven rally. Ted Jacoby III: Yeah. A lack-of-supply-driven rally in an environment where everybody was expecting oversupply and kind of got caught surprised when they realized that even though there’s more milk, it didn’t fully translate to more powder. Jacob Menge: So, what changes it? Price? How long? What does end game here look like? Based on what I’m hearing, sounds to me like there’s almost not a price that is all of a sudden going to bring more supply out of the woodwork. So, is there a price that kills demand? People say, “Hey, we can’t make this number work anymore?” Ted Jacoby III: I think, actually, Diego just framed it a few minutes ago in the right way. This lost production that we were expecting, is it enough to make up for the fact that international demand for nonfat and skim milk powder isn’t actually that great? I think he’s hit the nail on the head. Let’s face it, skim milk powder, nonfat, dry milk is kind of the ultimate dairy commodity, which means it’s more price sensitive than others. And we’re gonna get to a point when we’re gonna find out where that [00:08:00] equilibrium point is between demand and supply. Josh White: There’s a few things that could tilt the scales a bit that I think we should just pay a little bit of attention to at the moment. You made a comment earlier that the production outta California isn’t enough to satisfy what we’re losing in terms of powder in the rest of the country. I wonder though, as we seasonally ramp up our milk volumes in the U.S., if we don’t satisfy that difference at a certain moment. I’m certainly not suggesting that that should make us all bearish. But I do think that there’s something worth noting there. Jake, you made a comment a moment ago that it doesn’t sound like there’s a price that slows it down. That same phenomenon is happening in Europe right now, and I think that Europe is also gonna seasonally increase their supply. They’ve got a lot of additional powder and there is a price out there that people substitute. There is a price out there at which you price out international demand. What we’ve gotta try to reconcile is all of this additional demand for skim solids in the U.S. is [00:09:00] that replacing our need to be an exporter of skim solids? I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but it feels like a reach to believe that we’re consuming enough to take away our need to compete internationally for skim demand. So that’s one thing that might just put a little bit of a seasonal ceiling on this thing as we move forward. The real question is, does that actually tilt us into a surplus situation again, or not? Big question that we should get our arms around. Additionally, I think that there is substitution within dairy. For the longest time, skim solids are very, very cheap. And as mentioned, the fortification into the cheese vat has been a pretty clear decision. When butterfat dropped to the price levels that it did, it makes a whole lot of sense to fortify. As these skim prices move a bit higher and dependent on our cheese price outlook going forward, does that math shift at all? I’ve heard arguments on both sides that the math does matter, and I’ve also heard arguments that the math really doesn’t matter. It’s all about [00:10:00] optimizing put through in the vat. So yeah, I think those are interesting topics for us to debate because those are the things that might tilt the market one way or the other. Ted Jacoby III: When it comes to skim solids versus butterfat in the vat, and let’s not forget, with the increase in solids in the milk, especially in butterfat, you’ve gotten the ratio of protein to fat outta whack, which is driving an increased need of skim solids into the cheese vat. The real math is: do you sell the cream or you divide the UF milk? Well, guess what? The UF milk is getting a lot more expensive right now. And so, you can make the case that you might actually force yourself to be comfortable selling the cream because it’s really a question of do you overpay for the skim solids or do you lose money on the butterfat if you sell the butterfat. At lower butter prices, for a couple of different reasons, you need a higher multiple on the cream in order to sell it. And one of the big ones is cost of freight as a percentage of the butterfat price has gone way up. You compare a $1.50 butter to $3 butter and on a percentage basis, your freight costs are twice as much [00:11:00] now. Which ultimately, when it comes to surplus cream, will drive down the multiple that you’ll receive for the cream. Josh White: You know, I don’t wanna shift gears, but I do wanna spend a moment just thinking about the milk production response and if our outlook shifted a little bit over the past month or two. ’cause going into the end of the year, it seemed like the U.S. and Europe were on a collision course, a game of chicken to decide who’s gonna be the first to drop price enough to see milk production slow down. Our global milk production, what is it up like 3.8% or something like that going into the end of the year on a solids basis, and no real sign of major change in the first half of the year, other than some signaling from European companies to lower their milk price and try to slow things down. Is this recent rally, whether it’s a short covering rally or whether it’s temporary, is this pushing out that response, whether it’s in Europe or the U.S., even further than we previously thought? Ted Jacoby III: I feel pretty comfortable saying no. And the reason I feel pretty [00:12:00] comfortable saying no, is for a couple of reasons. The biggest one is nonfat milk production is less than 15% of the milk supply of the U.S. And so, this rally in nonfat prices, it’s affecting less than 15% of the milk supply. Translated over a 100% of the milk supply, it’s not that big a number. I’m not sure it moves the dial a huge amount. Maybe I should back up a little bit because it’s now the higher of Class III and Class IV and Class I, and Class IV was trailing Class III by a dollar and now Class IV is ahead of Class III because of this rally. So yes, you’re starting to drive up prices there, too, so maybe it is helping the dairy farmer in a couple of places. While I agree that you’ve gotten a sympathy rally with cheese and butter, unlike nonfat, there’s more than enough butter and there’s more than enough cheese out there. And so we don’t actually see a true challenge to accessing supply with those two. So, while you may see increased futures levels at the moment, I’m not sure that’s going [00:13:00] to translate for a long enough period of time, the increased price levels for those products. Josh White: Just to play devil’s advocate, I think if you ask the market if fresh production of butter was readily available, the answer might be no. Ted Jacoby III: It’s either one of two things. There’s a lot of 82% being made for export. Or you’ve got 30¢ to 40¢ of carry in the futures market, and if I’m a butter manufacturer, and I’ve got any kind of working capital, I’m making 80%, I’m parking it in my own warehouse, I’m hedging it out to capture that extra 40¢, and I’m telling everybody I’m sold out. Well, guess what? That butterfat is still available. Once you get past the old crop, new crop March 1st date, that math changes, that’s only a month away. And I would even say you’re talking about the shortest month of the year, too. Josh White: Cheese has the same forward curve right now. Maybe not quite as dramatic, but a pretty good healthy contango going forward. What’s different about the cheese market? Ted Jacoby III: Cheese has a tendency to have carry in it when prices are low. The market is more used to this kind of carry in [00:14:00] cheese. Jacob Menge: The shelf life too. Ted, I mean Ted Jacoby III: that’s, that’s, well, that’s right. That’s the second one is cheese ages. And so six month old cheese is a different product than 30 day old cheese. With butter, there’s a reason why the CME rules for butter is up to 12 months after December 1st production. Whereas with cheese, it’s basically a 30 day market. And that has to do with how the product changes over time as it ages. Josh White: When we’re thinking about the cheese market, we’re talking about the U.S. milk production being up, year over year a lot. We throw a little salt on that because we recognize we’re comparing against bird flu impacted regions a year ago, but still lot more milk solids. Lot more butterfat out there. But at the same time, we’ve added plenty of Class III processing capacity, at least through the middle part of America to process quite a bit more milk. How is the whey component playing into this right now? Do we think these plants are gonna be highly motivated to fill up because of the return they’re getting for the whey [00:15:00] products, despite the cheese, situation you just mentioned, or are we really testing that desire to wanna fill up some of these plants as milk volumes pick up seasonally here in the state? Ted Jacoby III: So I can answer that question with the same answer two different ways. The first is: Please don’t forget that the Class III price ultimately insulates cheese manufacturers from major movements in price. If they’re having to sell all that cheese at a substantial discount to the market, they could be losing money making the cheese, but the reality is if they sell it anywhere close to the CME price, it’s still gonna be a net profit or at least a net break even for them on the cheese side. Meanwhile, if they have a whey protein dryer and they’re making WPC 80 to your WPC 90, Josh as you well know, as our primary whey trader, those are very, very profitable for cheese plants right now with the prices as high as they are. Josh White: Unprecedented. Mike Brown: Gives them a little room with a higher class IV price because of that return [00:16:00] from whey to pay a little more than the spread might normally indicate that they would. Just as a point of reference, if you look the most recent dairy production numbers we have products is for November, but Southwest was down 25% I think, in overall nonfat dry milk production. And they were 70% of the decrease over last year. Ted Jacoby III: Yep. Mike Brown: And you still have some plants filling up down there. Although, again, we’ll see what happens with this spread. But to the point we’ve all made earlier, it is a supply issue. And there’s no question those south central cheese plants in Kansas and Texas are a big part of the reason that there’s less milk going into powder. Ted Jacoby III: I had someone earlier today make a comment, and I never quite thought of it this way. He was actually talking about cheese, but I think the exact same thing goes for powder plants. Because the solids in the milk is up, they need less loads of milk to make the same amount of powder. And the bottleneck in the process a lot of times is not the milk receiving bay. So it literally means they have to take in less milk to get there. If you’re out in California, those bottlenecks are limiting how much milk they can [00:17:00] process. In the Southwest, they’re not. Josh White: Right. Ted Jacoby III: But demand for protein, I’ll frame it this way: We’re seeing huge increases in demand for whey proteins. We’re seeing increases in demand for milk proteins. We’re seeing increases in demand for UF milk, not just by cheese plants, but by ready to drink milk bottlers, as well, who really wanna sell that high protein milk. And that is what’s driving all of this. And it’s driving it away from the nonfat dryer, and it’s driving it towards cheese, which is a source of protein, whether it’s cheese or it’s the whey that comes off the cheese. It’s driving it towards those UF milk plants. It’s driving it towards milk protein concentrate plants. It’s really all about that huge increasing demand for protein that’s driving this. I don’t think it’s that hard to make the correlation that this big increase in the demand for dairy proteins across the dairy spectrum is what’s causing this powder market to be tight. Because it’s pulling milk away [00:18:00] from the nonfat dryer. Mike Brown: Yeah. And certainly, you have a fair amount of MPC capacity, certainly in New Mexico. If you can make a protein, you’re making a protein, I think, whether it’s milk or whey.Ted Jacoby III: I think that’s exactly right. So, Diego, where do we end? We were below a $1.20 three weeks ago. We’re at a $1.46 today. Are we gonna get to a $1.60? Diego Carvallo: Ted, I do know that the $1.40 is a strong psychological resistance and the futures are very close to it. I’m gonna monitor it. I don’t know how high we can go. At this point, it seems like a train, and I’m not gonna step in front of it. $1.50 is not impossible at this moment, but at the same time, I could tell you that we could have a strong correction also. So, very difficult to read right now. Ted Jacoby III: We just talked about a real nice rally going on in nonfat. The rally we think is because the demand for protein is pulling milk away from the nonfat dryer. Meanwhile, I think we have more than enough butter, though it may not be available yet, in terms of new crop, 80% butter sellable on the [00:19:00] CME. We think that we’re gonna have more than enough cheese, colored cheddar, which tends to be the product that drives price on the cheese side. So, even though we have had a rally in both of those products in futures, we’re not as strong of believers in the cheese market and the butter market as we are in the nonfat market right now. So, before we wrap up, we’re gonna do a quick lightning round question. We just came out of the Dairy Forum. We had many, many conversations with a lot of different people. What is the one thing happening in the dairy market right now that we think people are overlooking? Josh, I’m gonna start with you. Josh White: The reshaping of how milk trades across the country. I’m certainly not in the best position versus our milk team to address that, but the changes in where we can process milk, how we can process milk, and who’s demanding the milk is reshaping how things move. And I think that’s gonna test some of our experience and historical expectations for how a market responds to some of the signals we’re seeing now. I mean, let’s be real clear. Over the past 24 months, we’ve been surprised as a [00:20:00] dairy industry by two major things. It was not that long ago that you couldn’t get enough fat. The dairymen responded and it surprised the market, I think, to a point where now we’re expecting to be a fat exporter for a while. On the other side, if we go back, not even 60 days ago, the argument was will nonfat break a dollar? Or not. And today, we’re talking about it being a very firm market and citing a bunch of reasons why that happened. And the market, I believe, was surprised by that. So, if you’re a buyer out there, don’t assume that these markets can’t change and change fast. Definitely make sure you’re preparing yourselves for that because we just went through multiple years where there was almost no risk of getting access to nonfat supply, and we’re getting phone calls now where people need coverage right now and are having difficulties doing so. Ted Jacoby III: Thanks Josh. Mike, how about you? What’s something that nobody’s talking about right now that we probably should be paying attention to? Mike Brown: I think from the standpoint of the cheesemaker and that cost of those [00:21:00] protein solids is a three four spread flipping significantly. We’re $2 the other way again now. That cost of fortification has gone up a lot. Even with a $12 WPI market. That’s a big number to work with. And I think just in general, the growth in demand, whether it’s ultra filtered protein, fluid products, or the new cheese capacity we underestimated how that would hit the supply of nonfat dry milk, and we’re now living that. Ted Jacoby III: Excellent. Thanks Mike. Diego, how about you? Diego Carvallo: I have two things. One is the dollar weakness is something I haven’t heard a lot of people talking about and how that influences the prices for all commodities. And the second one is, I think a lot of people might be overlooking Mexican milk production. Ted Jacoby III: Up or down. Is it good or bad? Diego Carvallo: From informal reports, it could be strongly up. Ted Jacoby III: Okay. That would not be good for nonfat prices, would it? Diego Carvallo: Correct. Yep. Ted Jacoby III: Jake, how about you? Jacob Menge: I’ll go with just the upending of all kinds of long held assumptions. If you’ve got calculators you’ve been [00:22:00] using, dairy market calculators, between the milk price formula changes between dollar weakness changing between us flipping to be a fat exporter, throw it all out. There are just so many of these, probably long held assumptions, those kind of things that people that have been in the industry a while probably have like, “Well, my gut tells me this.” Question your gut. That’s my go-to train of thought moving forward. Ted Jacoby III: I think that’s a good one. And I will say, I think people are underestimating what this whole breeding to beef thing going on with the dairy farmer is doing to their decision-making process when it comes to killing cows. Everybody’s talking about how low the price is. Everybody’s wondering when this price will recover. And I keep asking myself, if every time a beef cow is born, you’re selling that cow for over a thousand dollars, why would you wanna get rid of that womb? ’cause that womb seems to be making you a lot of money. To all of our listeners out there, thank you so much for joining us this week, and we look forward to talking to you soon. Take care out there.

Are you looking to save time, make money, and start winning with less risk? Then head to https://www.ovtlyr.com.If you have ever felt frustrated, confused, or outright burned by options trading, this video is going to hit close to home. Options are often marketed as a fast path to consistent profits, but the reality is a lot messier than the YouTube thumbnails make it seem. In this breakdown, the conversation cuts straight through the hype and puts the math, risk, and real-world outcomes front and center.The video reacts to popular options trading strategies that promise “consistent profits” and stress-tests them using expectancy, leverage, and actual trade mechanics. Credit spreads, iron condors, low-delta setups, and short-term expirations all get put under the microscope. Instead of just talking theory, the discussion walks through real numbers, real probabilities, and the uncomfortable truth about why many option-selling strategies feel good at first but quietly bleed accounts over time.One of the biggest takeaways is how dangerous it can be to structure trades where you risk far more than you can reasonably make. High win rates sound great until one losing trade wipes out weeks or months of progress. This video explains why that happens, how expectancy really works, and why “it works most of the time” is not a real edge in the market.Midway through, the focus shifts toward a very different approach. Instead of selling options and waiting on time decay, the discussion highlights why deep in-the-money options behave more like controlled leverage rather than lottery tickets. Intrinsic value, delta, and risk management take center stage, along with the importance of having a clearly defined plan for both entries and exits.To make it easier to follow, here are some of the core ideas covered:✅ Why credit spreads often violate the golden rule of leverage✅ How win rate can be misleading without positive expectancy✅ The real math behind risk, reward, and probability✅ Why selling options can trap you in dead money trades✅ How deep in-the-money options change the risk profileThis is not a motivational speech or a get-rich-quick pitch. It is a practical, sometimes uncomfortable look at what actually works and what quietly doesn't. The video also reinforces the importance of having a documented trading plan, understanding intrinsic versus extrinsic value, and knowing exactly why a trade makes sense before putting capital at risk.If you are serious about improving your options trading, reducing unnecessary stress, and building a repeatable process, this video is worth your time. Links referenced in the video include live trade tracking and the exact plan being used, all shared openly so you can see the data for yourself.Watch closely, question everything, and take notes. This is about trading smarter, not trading more.Gain instant access to the AI-powered tools and behavioral insights top traders use to spot big moves before the crowd. Start trading smarter today

On The Day Trading Show, Austin Silver breaks down what actually drives sustainable success heading into 2026: capital protection, consistent execution, and building a professional trading mindset. The conversation centers on how disciplined VWAP-based trading, proper risk management, and repeatable routines create long-term consistency — especially for traders operating inside modern prop firm environments.Sponsor:

Discover all of the podcasts in our network, search for specific episodes, get the Optimal Living Daily workbook, and learn more at: OLDPodcast.com. Episode 3408: Nick Maggiulli unpacks the rise and downfall of Atlas Trading, a group of financial influencers charged with running a $100 million pump-and-dump scheme. Through this cautionary tale, and a parallel story of extreme legal risk-taking, he exposes the dangerous allure of quick profits, while reminding us that the real pros in finance aren't making headlines; they're quietly doing honest work. Read along with the original article(s) here: https://ofdollarsanddata.com/trading-games/ Quotes to ponder: “Do not use followers as exit liquidity. Do not flex, or entice others to do your trades. Do not lie.” “The more risk you take, the more likely you are to see an extreme outcome (to the upside or the downside).” “In the game of trading, the only winning move is not to play.” Episode references: Jason Zweig – The Intelligent Investor column: https://www.wsj.com/news/author/jason-zweig SEC lawsuit press release: https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2022-219 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Discover all of the podcasts in our network, search for specific episodes, get the Optimal Living Daily workbook, and learn more at: OLDPodcast.com. Episode 3408: Nick Maggiulli unpacks the rise and downfall of Atlas Trading, a group of financial influencers charged with running a $100 million pump-and-dump scheme. Through this cautionary tale, and a parallel story of extreme legal risk-taking, he exposes the dangerous allure of quick profits, while reminding us that the real pros in finance aren't making headlines; they're quietly doing honest work. Read along with the original article(s) here: https://ofdollarsanddata.com/trading-games/ Quotes to ponder: “Do not use followers as exit liquidity. Do not flex, or entice others to do your trades. Do not lie.” “The more risk you take, the more likely you are to see an extreme outcome (to the upside or the downside).” “In the game of trading, the only winning move is not to play.” Episode references: Jason Zweig – The Intelligent Investor column: https://www.wsj.com/news/author/jason-zweig SEC lawsuit press release: https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2022-219 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's one of the most common questions I get—and today I'm giving you my honest answer.In this episode, I break down what moving averages actually do, why traders use them, and why I don't use them in my own trading. We'll also cover when moving averages can make sense and how to think about them the right way—without the hypeMarket Mastery Recordingshttps://tieronetrading.com/market-mastery-recordings/Your Trading Coach - Akil

Returning guest Vincent Bruzzese — trader, former statistics professor, poker player, and former Hollywood behavioral analyst — joins Tessa for a candid discussion about navigating one of the most narrative-driven markets in years. Known online as “Hari Seldon” in the Real Day Trading community, Vincent is recognized for posting his trades live and delivering multiple years of standout performance, with returns north of 60% and even 80%.  In this episode, Vincent talks about why traders are struggling with discipline, how sentiment and storylines are overpowering both fundamentals and technicals, and what separates structured trading from gambling. He also shares how tools like his walkaway analysis help reinforce better habits and improve decision-making. Tessa and Vincent dig into mindset, process, relative strength, risk management, and how he rebuilt after blowing up his account twice. They also explore the emotional side of trading in a market that often feels disconnected from reality — and how traders can stay grounded despite the chaos.   Links +Resources:  ●      Follow Vincent on Reddit:  ⁠https://www.reddit.com/r/RealDayTrading/⁠ ●      Follow Vincent on X:  ⁠@RealDayTrading⁠ ●      Vincent on CWT ⁠Episode 255⁠ ●      Vincent can also be found in the OneOption Chat Rooms Sponsor of Chat With Traders Podcast:   ●       Trade The Pool:  ⁠http://www.tradethepool.com⁠    Time Stamps: Please note: Exact times will vary depending on current ads.   ●     00:00:00  Intro and Background ●     00:07:13  Market Analysis and Trading Strategies ●     00:09:00  Trading Mindset and Emotional Challenges ●     00:11:07  Market Trends and Skepticism ●     00:13:08  Market Irrationality and Future Predictions ●     00:14:41  Valuation Concerns and Institutional Influence ●    00:15:19  Psychological Aspects of Trading ●    00:16:30  Narratives and Market Bubbles ●    00:18:00  Passive Income Strategies in Trading ●    00:21:57  Long-term Investment Strategies ●    00:21:25  Personal Trading Experiences ●    00:24:08  Learning from Trading Losses ●    00:25:12  The Journey to Becoming a Trader ●    00:25:58  Mindset and Trading Psychology ●    00:30:45  Identifying and Avoiding Bad Trades ●    00:32:58  Overcoming Trading Challenges ●    00:37:48  Trading Strategies and Market Analysis ●    00:40:52  Current Market Conditions and Trading Decisions ●    00:43:20  Portfolio Management and Trading Style ●    00:46:39  Trading Preparation and Daily Routine ●    01:01:25  Navigating Market Volatility and Uncertainty ●    01:05:41  Final Thoughts on Trading and Market Dynamics   Trading Disclaimer:  Trading in the financial markets involves a risk of loss. Podcast episodes and other content produced by Chat With Traders are for informational or educational purposes only and do not constitute trading or investment recommendations or advice. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode we answer emails from Phil and Chris.  We discuss moving from target date funds to low-cost index funds, why equity diversification needs a value tilt, how managed futures replication mimics an index fund in that asset class, options collars versus simply holding less equity, momentum models trade-offs and regime risk, long Treasuries compared with STRIPS for rate sensitivity, why TIPS don't hedge portfolio-level inflation and practical ways to fight portfolio-level inflation with value-tilted stocks and alternatives.Links:Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterMany Happy Returns Podcast Featuring Tyler:  How to Pick Your Perfect Portfolio, with Tyler from Portfolio ChartsPortfolio Charts Drawdowns Chart:  Drawdowns – Portfolio ChartsDMBF Video Re Dispersion of Recent Returns:  iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF Update with Andrew Beer | October 2025Bernstein TIPS Article:  Riskless at Age 104 - Articles - Advisor Perspectives ("A bond fund manager recently related to me his difficulty in figuring out the role of TIPS in his portfolios. After fumbling for a reply, I realized that he was right: like Social Security, they don't occupy a formal slot in most folks' asset allocation. . . . TIPS should be kept mentally separate from the policy asset allocation as well.")Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:Ever feel like your “set it and forget it” fund is quietly holding you back? We open the hood on target date funds and show how shifting to clear, low-cost index building blocks can recover real performance over the long haul. From there, we get practical about designing portfolios that don't just look diversified—they behave differently when markets sour. Think value tilts to counter mega-cap concentration, long-duration Treasuries for recession defense, and managed futures for trend-driven shock absorption.We also tackle the allure of complexity. Options collars can cap losses, but they cap gains too—and often mimic what you'd get by simply holding less equity and more diversifiers. Momentum strategies like GEM carry academic support, yet every rule set faces regime risk and behavioral hurdles. Rather than chasing perfect timing, we focus on roles: which assets hedge recessions, which fight inflation, and which compound steadily in normal times. That clarity helps you skip the noise and build sturdy allocations.On inflation, we cut through the myths. TIPS protect relative to nominal bonds, but they rarely shield an entire portfolio when inflation surges. If you want a real inflation response, look to assets with pricing power and trend sensitivity—managed futures, energy producers, and certain insurers—while reserving long Treasuries for growth shocks. We share why DBMF's replication approach acts like an “index” for trend following, how STRIPS such as ZROZ can replace some long bonds for targeted rate exposure, and why a global perspective makes U.S.-centric limiting beliefs easier to spot and drop.If you're ready to swap wrappers for transparency and replace clever tactics with durable structure, this one's for you. Follow the show, share it with a friend who's reconsidering their default fund, and leave a quick review so more investors can find these ideas.Support the show

Christian Carreon returns to Chat With Traders nearly three years after his first appearance, where he shared his remarkable journey through stage-five kidney failure and the discipline it forged in him as a trader. Today, he brings an even deeper perspective—on markets, on patience, and on the Box Strategy that has become his signature. Christian is a breakout trend trader who waits for compression, defines his levels meticulously, and only commits when price breaks cleanly from the “box” with tight risk and clear direction. In this conversation, he walks us through how his approach has evolved, how he sizes up with confidence, and why patience inside consolidation is the foundation of every edge he has. From day-trading futures for cash flow to swing-trading leading stocks for growth, Christian shares the discipline, structure, and gratitude that guide both his trading and his life.   Links + Resources:  ●      Follow Christian on X:  @trading_boxes ●      Christian on NinjaTrader Live ●      Christian on CWT Episode 254   Sponsor of Chat With Traders Podcast:  ●       Trade The Pool:  http://www.tradethepool.com   Time Stamps: Please note: Exact times will vary depending on current ads. ● 00:00 Intro and Background ● 05:23 Kidney Donation Journey ● 06:37 Recovery Process After Transplant ● 09:45 Mental Focus During Recovery ● 12:51 Trading Goals and Adjustments ● 12:09 Risk Management in Trading ● 12:38 Sizing Up and Position Management ● 15:24 Identifying Trading Opportunities ● 16:23 Market Conditions and Trading Strategy ● 17:28 Support and Resistance Analysis ● 19:00 Using Indicators for Trading ● 22:48 Influence of News on Trading ● 24:00 Box Strategy Overview ● 27:18 Adapting Trading Strategies ● 29:40 Trading Discipline and Limits ● 32:10 Managing Investor Funds ● 33:15 Handling Market Events ● 36:03 Investor Mistakes and Adaptation ● 47:04 Reflections on Trading Journey ● 50:34 Catch up with Tessa Trading Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a risk of loss. Podcast episodes and other content produced by Chat With Traders are for informational or educational purposes only and do not constitute trading or investment recommendations or advice. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices