Podcasts about misjudgment

What is the answer to your most desperate prayer? Could the answer to your complex situation actually be quite simple?Join us for part 2 of this episode on the Live Like It's True podcast, where Shannon and Rachel Wojo finish their conversation on the story of Hannah's complex prayer to the Lord. She is desperate. She is misjudged. And yet she sees that Lord is the answer for which she is looking.Where else can I listen to this podcast?Go HERE to find this episode on your favorite podcast app, including Apple, Youtube, Spotify, and more.Guest: Rachel WojoBible Passage: The Birth of Samuel - 1 Samuel 1:1-19Get your Free Resource: 20 Page WorkbookRecommended Resources: Check out Rachel's new book, Desperate Prayers: Embracing the Power of Prayer in Life's Darkest Moments, at my Amazon Storefront HEREResound Media Network: www.ResoundMedia.ccMusic: Cade PopkinRachel WojoRachel Wojo is an inspirational author, public speaker, podcaster known for her popular blog, rachelwojo.com. Through her biblical approach and personal life experiences, Rachel empowers women to discover strength and hope in everyday situations. Despite enduring the loss of her mother, adult special needs daughter, and father, Rachel remains resilient. She has authored the uplifting book, One More Step: Finding Strength When You Feel Like Giving Up, and is set to release her new work, Desperate Prayers: Embracing the Power of Prayer in Life's Darkest Moments (10/8/24). Rachel is crazy in love with her husband, Matt, and cherishes her motherhood with six children on earth and two in heaven.Connect with Rachel:WebsiteInstagramFacebookLive Like It's True is part of the Resound Podcast Network. For more gospel centered resources visit ResoundMedia.cc . Check out my nine week study, Control Girl: Lessons on Surrendering Your Burden of Control from Seven Women in the Bible.We've got leader's guides, free bonuses and more for you at ControlGirl.com. Learn more at ShannonPopkin.com.

The 5 Types of People Who Can Ruin Your Life Series: Histrionic High Conflict PersonalitiesIn this installment of "The 5 Types of People Who Can Ruin Your Life" series, Megan and Bill explore the world of histrionic high conflict personalities. They discuss the key characteristics of histrionics, including exaggerated emotions, a constant need for attention, and a tendency to misjudge relationships.Surprisingly, despite cultural stereotypes, research shows histrionic personality disorder is equally common in men and women. Bill and Megan also delve into how social media and influencer culture can feed histrionic tendencies, while emphasizing that having some traits doesn't necessarily indicate a disorder.Questions we answer in this episode:What defines a histrionic personality?Is histrionic personality disorder more common in men or women?How can you deal with exhausting histrionic behavior?Key Takeaways:Histrionic personalities are characterized by drama and a need for attention.Histrionic personality disorder involves a pattern of blaming others.Setting clear boundaries is crucial when dealing with histrionic behavior.Whether you have a histrionic person in your life or want to learn more about high conflict personalities, this episode offers valuable insights and practical strategies for navigating these challenging dynamics.Links & Other NotesBOOKS5 Types of People Who Can Ruin Your LifeIt's All Your Fault!ARTICLESDealing with Drama: Histrionic High Conflict PeopleLiving with High-Conflict People Series: Do's and Don'ts for living with a Histrionic High-Conflict PersonOUR WEBSITE: https://www.highconflictinstitute.com/Submit a Question for Bill and MeganAll of our books can be found in our online store or anywhere books are sold, including as e-books.You can also find these show notes at our site as well.Note: We are not diagnosing anyone in our discussions, merely discussing general patterns of behavior. (00:00) - Welcome to It's All Your Fault (00:38) - 5 Types of People Who Can Ruin Your Life: Histrionic (01:30) - What Is Histrionic? (08:33) - Misjudgment of Relationships (11:14) - Drawing Others In (13:16) - In Daily Life (15:34) - Frequency (19:10) - Men and Women (23:27) - Ancient Histrionic Personalities and Influencers (27:52) - Skills to Relieve Exhaustion (30:02) - Negative Advocates (31:17) - Lying and Exaggeration (32:32) - Paul McCartney (35:13) - Reminders & Coming Next Week: Paranoid Personalities Learn more about our New Ways for Mediation Coaching Sessions. Get started today!

In this episode, Maverick and Philip St. Jean discuss the first movie in the Hobbit trilogy, 'The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey.' They explore the differences between the book and the movie, the main character's role, and the fable-like aspects of the film. They also touch on the rating system and the opening scene. The conversation delves into the portrayal of Bilbo and Thorin, the Riddles in the Dark scene, and the overall plot structure. The conversation discusses the themes in the film 'The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey' and their execution. The themes of belonging, misjudgment, and the importance of home are explored, but the execution is criticized for being heavy-handed and lacking subtlety. The conversation also touches on the lack of character development for the dwarves and the questionable inclusion of side characters like Radagast. Overall, the film is seen as lacking lasting impact and not living up to the source material.----------Highlights:0:00 "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey" Introduction4:53 Opening Scene12:17 Debating the Main Character20:42 Bilbo Joins the Fellowship24:35 Riddles in the Dark43:00 Blatant Theme-Mongering in Dialogue47:05 Questionable Inclusion of Azog as the Main Villain49:23 The Necromancer and the Battle of Dol Guldur55:33 Gandalf and the Pointless Inclusion of Radagast1:03:21 Lack of Character Development for the Dwarves1:09:37 Messages and Meaning Going Forward----------Show Notes:9 Points Rating System: https://www.alostplot.com/9-points/ Pans Labyrinth Review: https://www.podomatic.com/podcasts/maverick51411/episodes/2024-04-17T17_00_00-07_00#thehobbit #anunexpectedjourney #bilbobaggins #gollum #alostplot #podcasting #filmthoughts #frodobaggins #frodo #bilbo #jrrtolkien #sourcematerial #bookadaptation #adaptation #thorinoakenshield #thorin #erebor #smaug #necromancer #thelonleymountain 

None other than the most famous “Monday Morning Quarterback,” Peter King, took this potshot at Pittsburgh's plans for its 2024 passers: “The Steelers ‘are not interested in bringing in a quarterback who wants to be a starter.' Come again? In a division with Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson, the Steelers would actually choose to enter camp with Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph (should he sign in free agency with Pittsburgh)? That sounds like a colossal misjudgment of your quarterback position.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Critical insights into the implications of recent court rulings on EMS practice and patient care This episode of Inside EMS is brought to you by Lexipol, the experts in policy, training, wellness support and grants assistance for first responders and government leaders. To learn more, visit lexipol.com. In this episode of the Inside EMS podcast, hosts Chris Cebollero and Kelly Grayson delve into the complex and ever-evolving legal and ethical dimensions EMS. This episode comes in the wake of a significant court ruling in which two paramedics were found guilty of criminally negligent homicide in the Elijah McClain case. The hosts discuss this judgment's far-reaching implications for EMS professionals, emphasizing the heightened legal scrutiny and accountability now present in the field. Memorable quotes "More and more, we are starting to see prosecutors making examples of paramedics, EMTs, who are not doing the right thing, or them thinking they're not doing the right thing, and our peers are now starting to get connected with murder and manslaughter charges, and it's something that we have to be very, very cognizant of." — Chris Cebollero "I think that where this case went off the rails is that both paramedics involved forgot that they were first and foremost patient advocates and were acting as law enforcement." — Kelly Grayson "We're doing our job with ego and this isn't about you. This is about the people that call for our help, and we've got to break that habit, because our poor interactions with people are leading to those national calls when these folks die." — Chris Cebollero "What could be the worst day of somebody's life ... that's powerful, right? People forget what a privilege that is. But we have to be able to remember that our ego is not good for medicine." — Chris Cebollero "You should train and educate yourself enough that you're not in doubt very often, but you should be conservative and call someone for, for consultation. That's what medical control is for." — Kelly Grayson Key takeaways Cebollero and Grayson discussed the growing legal scrutiny faced by EMS professionals, with the following takeaways: Importance of accurate medication dosage. The conversation emphasized the criticality of correctly estimating a patient's weight for administering weight-based medications. Misjudgment in dosage, as seen in the McClain case, can lead to severe consequences. EMS education and training needs. The podcast underscored the need for continuous education and situational awareness among EMS practitioners. The hosts debated how such high-profile cases could influence EMS practices and potentially lead to overly cautious behavior, which might not always be in the patient's best interest. Cebollero and Grayson stress the necessity for precise patient assessment, a skill that goes beyond technical expertise to encompass a deep understanding of the patient's condition and needs. Their discussion points to a growing need for EMS education and training to adapt and address these challenges, ensuring that EMS practitioners are equipped to make informed decisions in high-stakes situations. Patient advocacy and interaction. Another key aspect of the conversation is the role of paramedics as patient advocates. The hosts argue that EMS professionals should prioritize their medical responsibilities over any perceived obligation to law enforcement. This episode critically examines the ethical considerations in EMS, particularly in scenarios involving mental health or police involvement. By sharing personal experiences and insights, Cebollero and Grayson highlight the delicate balance EMS providers must maintain between following protocol, ensuring patient safety and navigating complex legal landscapes. Read for more: The EMS system failed McClain and the justice system failed the paramedics] Rate and review the Inside EMS podcast Enjoying the show? Please take a moment to rate and review us on Apple Podcasts. Contact the Inside EMS team at theshow@ems1.com to share ideas, suggestions and feedback, or if you'd like to join us as a guest. Catch a new episode every Friday on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, PodBean, Amazon Music, Stitcher, Spotify, and RSS feed. EMS1 is using generative AI to create some content that is edited and fact-checked by our editors.

We're kicking off a new series - The Munger Method - an exciting journey into the 25 causes of misjudgment, inspired by the wisdom of the one and only Charlie Munger, through his talk “The Psychology fo Human Misjudgment”. This episode covers the background of what led to this pursuit of studying human misjudgment for Munger himself.

In memory of Charlie Munger who passed away recently, I am launching a new series titled "The Munger Method", on his unforgettable speech titled “The Psychology of Human Misjudgment,” where he delved into the common cognitive biases and mental shortcuts that affect our decisions every day. This speech was originally delivered by Charlie to an audience at Harvard University in 1995 and was revised later. In a world that has become noisier and where decision making has become more confusing, I think the lessons hold much relevance as they did back then when Charlie delivered it the first time. In The Munger Method, I am going to dissect Charlie's timeless wisdom from that speech and break it down into bite-sized, easy-to-understand videos. We'll explore the very principles that Charlie himself considered vital, as we dive into his extraordinary insights on human psychology and why we behave the way we do.

From accusations to acclamations, Jesus was and will always be innocent and The King of the Jews. A devotional by Vince Miller.

Clay Finck reviews the 28 psychology of human misjudgments in Peter Bevelin's book, Seeking Wisdom. One of the best ways to behave more rationally is to understanding our own shortcomings biologically which we are oftentimes unaware of. This episode dives deep into these shortcomings, and how we can sidestep them to invest more wisely.IN THIS EPISODE YOU'LL LEARN:0:00 - Intro4:11 - Many of the human misjudgments that Charlie Munger has spoken about extensively.4:34 - What bias by mere association is.8:41 - How rewards and punishments influence our behavior.14:51- How self-interest and incentives drive decision-making.24:40 - The bias of self-deception and denial.26:00 - The bias of being consistent with our prior actions.30:11 - The status quo bias.31:42 - How investors can exploit the tendency of humans to be incredibly impatient.36:58 - The anchoring bias.43:51 - What reciprocity is, and it's effects on human behavior.48:29 - The bias of social proof.51:01 - How authority bias effects our investment decisions.51:53 - How to combat our desire minimize uncertainty.55:07 - Why the simple solution is oftentimes the best solution. Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.BOOKS AND RESOURCESCheck out our TIP Mastermind Community.Peter Bevelin's book: Seeking WisdomTune into our previous episode with Gautam Baid or watch the video here.Tune into our previous episode covering Chris Mayer's book, How Do You Know? or watch the video here.Check out our recent episode covering Mark Leonard's Letters and Constellation Software or watch the video here.Follow Clay on Twitter.NEW TO THE SHOW?Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs.Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here.Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool.Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services.Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets.Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts.P.S The Investor's Podcast Network is excited to launch a subreddit devoted to our fans in discussing financial markets, stock picks, questions for our hosts, and much more! Join our subreddit r/TheInvestorsPodcast today!P.S The Investor's Podcast Network is excited to launch a subreddit devoted to our fans in discussing financial markets, stock picks, questions for our hosts, and much more! Join our subreddit r/TheInvestorsPodcast today!SPONSORSInvest in Bitcoin with confidence on River. It's the most secure way to buy Bitcoin with 100% full reserve custody and zero fees on recurring orders.If you're aware you need to improve your bitcoin security but have been putting it off, Unchained Capital's Concierge Onboarding is a simple way to get started—sooner rather than later. Book your onboarding today and at checkout, get $50 off with the promo code FUNDAMENTALS.Experience real language learning for real conversations with Babbel. Get 55% off your Babbel subscription today.Reach the world's largest audience with Linkedin, the place to B2B. Plus, enjoy a $100 credit on your next ad campaign!Get a customized solution for all of your KPIs in one efficient system with one source of truth. Download NetSuite's popular KPI Checklist, designed to give you consistently excellent performance for free.Send, spend, and receive money around the world easily with Wise.Beat FOMO and move faster than the market with AlphaSense.Choose Toyota for your next vehicle - SUVs that are known for their reliability and longevity, making them a great investment. Plus, Toyotas now have more advanced technology than ever before, maximizing that investment with a comfortable and connected drive.Be confident that you'll be small businessing at your best with support designed to help you reach your goals. Book an appointment with a TD Small Business Specialist today.Start, run, and grow your business without the struggle. Be in control of every sales channel with Shopify. Sign up for a $1 per month trial period today.Return to the all-access world of the rich and powerful. Don't miss new episodes of Billions streaming August 11th on the Paramount Plus with Showtime plan.Look good and feel good with True Classic's range of summer essentials, crafted with premium quality fabrics at an accessible price. Get 25% off today with the code WSB.Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors.HELP US OUT!Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts! It takes less than 30 seconds, and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Teaching and Study helps for Luke 22 and John 18.  These insights coincide with the lesson for June 12-June 18 in the Come Follow Me manual. Principles include:  To Run to Help, Don't Go to Caiaphas' Palace, A Misjudgment of Value, and more. Link to Easter Video: https://youtu.be/5BI2Xe_FIywTo download handouts and slides go to https://www.etsy.com/shop/TeachingWithPowerTo purchase the New Testament Bundle Subscription: https://www.etsy.com/listing/1364419447/new-testament-bundle-subscriptionall?click_key=628a2cc6ba979010bdbb1a4e4405cb163a72aa97%3A1364419447&click_sum=cf524842&ref=shop_home_feat_1To purchase the New Testament Handouts Only Subscription:  https://www.etsy.com/listing/1364420781/new-testament-handout-bundle-every?click_key=7c50d21254e5caa1fe6f25c55b16f8f74b2b0acd%3A1364420781&click_sum=d579bb96&ref=shop_home_feat_2You can reach me by email at teachingwithpower@gmail.comMusic Provided by Youtube Audio Library. Track Name: Dancing Star. https://teachingwithpower.wixsite.com/teachingwithpower Disclaimer: I alone am responsible for the content of these videos. The opinions in them are mine. They represent my ideas and insights and do not reflect the official position of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.

Cadmus Decides to Enlist into the Memorian military once again. Vorden Leaves with Victor Tybolt to Speak to the banks in Paloronna. Meanwhile Ruikk is given a task by senator John Regall. Things become increasingly difficult and poor decisions will be made. --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/the-drunken-spear/support

Day 19 of Podmas

- Pastor Matt Garwick

- Pastor Matt Garwick

The cops need to charge Brian Tamaki for that protest at the weekend for one primary reason: social cohesion. The Prime Minister is absolutely right.  That was a slap in the face for Aucklanders who have been following very strict rules for 7 weeks now.  I can't even begin to imagine how infuriating it was for business owners who are losing their livelihoods and homes to watch Tamaki thumb his nose at these rules.Many people hate the rules, but we follow them anyway for the greater good.It is extremely damaging to social cohesion and the willingness of people to keep following the rules if we witness people like Brian Tamaki getting away with flagrantly disobeying them.I think the cops made a massive misjudgement in trying to take a softer ‘education first' approach with lockdown rule breakers.They ignored the Black Lives Matter protests, they've laid no charges as far as we know for the gang tangi in West Auckland on Friday, and now this.Instead, they gave the protest their tacit endorsement by meeting with Tamaki beforehand and negotiating a compromise for all attendees to wear masks.I think they have completely underestimated the rage of Kiwis over this.Social media is furious and more than 60,000 people have signed a petition calling for police to charge Tamaki.My guess is that the cops decided it was better to take a light touch at the protest because arresting Tamaki might only turn him into a martyr and harden the attitudes of his followers who are already sounding very anti-vax and anti-mask and anti-authority.But what the cops are risking is frustrating potentially many, many times more people who've watched this unfold and feel even more disheartened about compliance with the rules.Auckland – and in fact the country really – has a long road of it with restrictions for some time yet.If the cops want to increase the number of people who stay on board with these rules, they need to make an example of him and charge him.And then they need to charge every other person who is caught breaking the rules from here on in. 

In this episode, John Mihaljevic co-hosts a discussion of (1) myopic loss aversion and the lumpiness of investment returns, led by Elliot Turner; and (2) updated thoughts on Charlie Muger's Psychology of Human Misjudgment, led by Phil Ordway.Enjoy the discussion!The content of this podcast is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this podcast. The podcast participants and their affiliates may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated on this podcast.

Living and Leading with Emotional Intelligence: When Admission of Misjudgment Backfires with Julie Irwin Zimmerman You may have heard of her. Julie Irwin Zimmerman is a writer, editor and journalist whose article in The Atlantic titled "I Failed the Covington Catholic Test" went viral. While Julie displays a high-level of emotional intelligence, her admission of misjudgment ironically backfired. As a society we claim to value honesty and praise those who can admit when they are wrong. However, as you will hear in Julie's experience, our admission isn't always well received by everyone. Read Julie's article: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/01/julie-irwin-zimmerman-i-failed-covington-catholic-test/580897/To learn more about your host, Brittney-Nichole: Websites: www.thecatalyst4change.com; www.generationeq.org Podcast: Living and Leading with Emotional Intelligence; The EQ Deficiency Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/brittney.connor2321LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/brittney-nichole-connor-savarda-2b5737137/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/bncs_23/Book: https://www.amazon.com/EQ-Deficiency-Emotional-Intelligence-Compassion/

For the best of reasons, all goes wrong. You can guess why.   There is a tech bro who is a bully.  (Seems to come with the territory. There is a very smart CEO who just doesn’t seem to understand.   And finally, a consultant who is finding her way in a lost, lost world. … Continue reading Big Tech: Act II – Misjudgment →

Charlie's famous speech on the psychology of human misjudgment given at Harvard University in 1995. Munger speaks about the framework for decision making and the factors contributing to misjudgements.

In this episode, John hosts a discussion of:A Nick Sleep quote on habits; led by Elliot TurnerBrokerage sweep options and how they have changed to the detriment of the small investor; led by Chris BloomstranAn update on Charlie Munger’s The Psychology of Human Misjudgment; led by Phil OrdwayEnjoy the discussion!The content of this podcast is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this podcast. The podcast participants and their affiliates may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated on this podcast.

A warm welcome to episode 120 of "My Morning Minutes“! CVOID-19: A "Colossal misjudgment"   Today I talk about: According to the TAZ a left wing, government friendly, German newspaper, puts the records of COVID-19 straight. I was very surprised and hope that this is the first important step that the entire notion around this virus that many governments used to kill democracy is now going to crumble!   Have a read. It is worth it! https://taz.de/Streit-um-Corona-Politik/!5701892/     Yours, Christian Sist   To get in contact, please email me: talk@mymorningminutes.com   You can find the podcast on: LinkedIn Instagram Facebook Soundcloud Spotify

Chicago Tribune film critic Michael Phillips joins Anna to talk about the AMC theater chain reversing course and now requiring customers to wear masks.

Flight 102. Paul reviews the BA Club Suite (no door was hurt in the making of this podcast). Alex and the secrets of meeting rockstars in flight (mark them down!). The A380 misunderstanding: it should live on (and don't listen to the French, they just strike anyway). United will decide your fate: dark side or light side of the Force (United also ghost Force'd Munoz). Food pan pan, coffee pan pan, but chocolate delight (edible cup though?). BLLegoland. Paul kneels down in front of Madrid e-gates (they don't work) whilst Alex believes it being a social experiment: it's truly mad MAD (and a new fortress by IAG). Boeing will soon sell a negative number of planes. Hong Kong airlines lives to see another day, Avatar airlines might never be born (low-cost 744s, really?). Tim Clark has had enough of beta-testing aircrafts. DFW innovates, a lot, but it's still not sexy (Alex's posh voice however...)

Going Beyond the 10k Checklist (good order to follow. If not durable, we should drop it) • Overview – Give an overview on the business – what is the business, what units make it up, what products do the business have, who are the customers, where do they operate geographically, recent events (spinoffs, the stocks down 50%, why are we looking at this?) who’s their biggest customer, who’s their biggest supplier, what are their biggest product categories (or units, where is rev coming from)• Durability – is the product durable? Have the companies always existed? Have there been changes and challenges before? What’s it based on? Why is this going to continue in the future? Is this a fad? • Moat (does the company have a moat, and what would it be, EX from HBB- Do they outsource it to China, can they outsource it to China? Can other people replicate this easily?) competitive advantage- Where does the moat come from? – high switching costs, patents, contracts, network effects, shelve space, brand, economies of scale – logistics – sales per customer, location location location, regulatory, high barriers to entry, technical skill – reputation, Apple can’t trust a company that’s a startup, intellectual property - owns something that’s intangible, databases, credit records, sports rights, knowledge that others don’t have • Quality (basically talk about ROC, how do they get that return on capital? Break it down, where does it come from? Do they have a higher retention rate? Where is the quality weak? Geoff always asked for customer retention rate, can you always find someplace where there are reviews by customers? Can you get anything that’s ranked in the industry? Like customer service, awards, customer satisfaction surveys, Glassdoor for company culture, need to read between the lines on Glassdoor, look at short interest vs. float, and read short thesis, high price or low price, customer reviews, what do individuals think of the products, which brand would you trust the most? If it comes back a mix then it’s probably the cheapest, how much r&d are they spending as a % of sales and in general, where are they spending this r&d, read Phil Fishers 15-point checklist for quality and growth• Capital Allocation – History of dividends, stock buybacks, stock issuance, CARG in # of shares outstanding, see how management is compensated in the proxy (options, restricted stock, bonus – what are the targets that make up the bonus? ROE, ROC, market cap, etc., how much does management own of the stock? And how significant is that in regard to their salary? What did they say they were going to do in the past? What do they do with FCF historically, can get from transcripts as well, people on the board that we recognize, how much FCF compared to marketcap, could they buy it back? Is there enough float and is the stock liquid enough, did the company ever pay special dividends? Does the company ever acquire things? $MNRO- is their business growth through acquisitions? What type of prices do they pay? Stock or cash• Value – what’s the PE, EV/EBITDA and how does that compare to other companies? Which competitor is better? Why would a company be more expensive or cheaper? Use 5 peers? EX - Is GM cheaper than Ford and why would that make sense? Talk about what management is guiding. Relative value vs. past and competitors, was there ever an offer that was refused or that fell apart? What would an LBO look like? Do they do LBO’s on companies like this? What prices do acquisitions happen in the industry or did peers pay? If looking at Kroger what did AMZN pay for whole foods, etc.• Growth – break down growth. Let’s say they can grow 5% a year, how much is SSS, how much is price increase, how many active users, how much time might they be spending on it, are the ad expenses going up or down, break it all down by geography, are they going to grow in Mexico a lot but not the US, etc.? can they gain market share each year? Compare it to something else that’s already big. Can a cheesecake be as popular as chilis? Probably not. Always think in terms of nominal GDP, population growth, and inflation, how much have real sales grown • Misjudgment – what are other people seeing on the short part of it, what can’t we predict that’s important to what we’re doing, what may we get wrong that our argument rests on, check % short, short thesis, look at press reports to see what people are saying could go wrong, can look at if all the stocks in the industry are affected or just this one, basically trying to find an explanation for why it’s cheap, VIC, read comments to figure out what other people think• Conclusion – take all the things we’ve done and put a mini-analysis together, the elevator pitch – why why why, whats going to drive the stock. talk in terms of 3 things: how safe is this, how high quality is this, how cheap is this – safe: DEBT/EBITDA, F Z Score, years of positive earnings, cash flow, is it positive? Is it always positive? FCF, Variation in margins. Google S&P, Fitch, Moodys to check bond ratings, check interest rate on debt. Quality: long-term CAGR of stock, is it high enough, is it a good industry – CAGR on other stocks, is it a cyclical, are these companies’ products, services, etc. as good as the competition? Is the culture as good as other places? Cheap: EV-EBITDA, EV-SALES, relative valuation (cheap compared to self, cheap compared to peers) Private owner value, absolute value (is this stock cheap for a normal stock at a normal time – average stock is 15-16x PE in normal times) • Appraisal – come up with a method for appraising the stock Being the journalist: go to the proxy statement and find out who owns stock in the company, google all of their names to learn about who they are and learn about them Get satellite images of their HQ and properties – get a sense of why they would put the HQ where it’s at, google the town to learn about income and significant things in the town Glassdoor – if found anything that’s weird, look into it Look for news on the company, EX: http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/38722953/community-stunned-by-trees-mowed-down-in-west-maui-but-state-defends-project, write it down, the project is starting) Look at BBB Look for information about the industry group – timber, core processors – learn what that is, find what the company is and industry terms and stuff. What’s the business model? Read reviews on websites like Yelp, TripAdvisor, Etc.       Join our free stock writeup list at: https://www.focusedcompoundinggazette.com/     Contact Andrew at:  Twitter: @Focusedcompound Email:  info@focusedcompounding.com   Contact Geoff at: Twitter: @GeoffGannon Email:  gannononinvesting@gmail.com

James and Darren deliver a super-sized podcast covering an extra-long episode of Game of Thrones as the show’s heroes make a series of tragic missteps. We revisit last week’s darkness debate, talk Jon’s honesty problem, Brienne’s seemingly doomed hookup, Daenerys being pushed to her limit and that big death. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Acts 12 - The Great Misjudgment Of The King (March 17, 2019 - Aaron Leduc) by MVC Church

Going Beyond the 10k Checklist (good order to follow. If not durable, we should drop it) • Overview – Give an overview on the business – what is the business, what units make it up, what products do the business have, who are the customers, where do they operate geographically, recent events (spinoffs, the stocks down 50%, why are we looking at this?) who’s their biggest customer, who’s their biggest supplier, what are their biggest product categories (or units, where is rev coming from)• Durability – is the product durable? Have the companies always existed? Have there been changes and challenges before? What’s it based on? Why is this going to continue in the future? Is this a fad? • Moat (does the company have a moat, and what would it be, EX from HBB- Do they outsource it to China, can they outsource it to China? Can other people replicate this easily?) competitive advantage- Where does the moat come from? – high switching costs, patents, contracts, network effects, shelve space, brand, economies of scale – logistics – sales per customer, location location location, regulatory, high barriers to entry, technical skill – reputation, Apple can’t trust a company that’s a startup, intellectual property - owns something that’s intangible, databases, credit records, sports rights, knowledge that others don’t have • Quality (basically talk about ROC, how do they get that return on capital? Break it down, where does it come from? Do they have a higher retention rate? Where is the quality weak? Geoff always asked for customer retention rate, can you always find someplace where there are reviews by customers? Can you get anything that’s ranked in the industry? Like customer service, awards, customer satisfaction surveys, Glassdoor for company culture, need to read between the lines on Glassdoor, look at short interest vs. float, and read short thesis, high price or low price, customer reviews, what do individuals think of the products, which brand would you trust the most? If it comes back a mix then it’s probably the cheapest, how much r&d are they spending as a % of sales and in general, where are they spending this r&d, read Phil Fishers 15-point checklist for quality and growth• Capital Allocation – History of dividends, stock buybacks, stock issuance, CARG in # of shares outstanding, see how management is compensated in the proxy (options, restricted stock, bonus – what are the targets that make up the bonus? ROE, ROC, market cap, etc., how much does management own of the stock? And how significant is that in regard to their salary? What did they say they were going to do in the past? What do they do with FCF historically, can get from transcripts as well, people on the board that we recognize, how much FCF compared to marketcap, could they buy it back? Is there enough float and is the stock liquid enough, did the company ever pay special dividends? Does the company ever acquire things? $MNRO- is their business growth through acquisitions? What type of prices do they pay? Stock or cash• Value – what’s the PE, EV/EBITDA and how does that compare to other companies? Which competitor is better? Why would a company be more expensive or cheaper? Use 5 peers? EX - Is GM cheaper than Ford and why would that make sense? Talk about what management is guiding. Relative value vs. past and competitors, was there ever an offer that was refused or that fell apart? What would an LBO look like? Do they do LBO’s on companies like this? What prices do acquisitions happen in the industry or did peers pay? If looking at Kroger what did AMZN pay for whole foods, etc.• Growth – break down growth. Let’s say they can grow 5% a year, how much is SSS, how much is price increase, how many active users, how much time might they be spending on it, are the ad expenses going up or down, break it all down by geography, are they going to grow in Mexico a lot but not the US, etc.? can they gain market share each year? Compare it to something else that’s already big. Can a cheesecake be as popular as chilis? Probably not. Always think in terms of nominal GDP, population growth, and inflation, how much have real sales grown • Misjudgment – what are other people seeing on the short part of it, what can’t we predict that’s important to what we’re doing, what may we get wrong that our argument rests on, check % short, short thesis, look at press reports to see what people are saying could go wrong, can look at if all the stocks in the industry are affected or just this one, basically trying to find an explanation for why it’s cheap, VIC, read comments to figure out what other people think• Conclusion – take all the things we’ve done and put a mini-analysis together, the elevator pitch – why why why, whats going to drive the stock. talk in terms of 3 things: how safe is this, how high quality is this, how cheap is this – safe: DEBT/EBITDA, F Z Score, years of positive earnings, cash flow, is it positive? Is it always positive? FCF, Variation in margins. Google S&P, Fitch, Moodys to check bond ratings, check interest rate on debt. Quality: long-term CAGR of stock, is it high enough, is it a good industry – CAGR on other stocks, is it a cyclical, are these companies’ products, services, etc. as good as the competition? Is the culture as good as other places? Cheap: EV-EBITDA, EV-SALES, relative valuation (cheap compared to self, cheap compared to peers) Private owner value, absolute value (is this stock cheap for a normal stock at a normal time – average stock is 15-16x PE in normal times) • Appraisal – come up with a method for appraising the stock Being the journalist: go to the proxy statement and find out who owns stock in the company, google all of their names to learn about who they are and learn about them Get satellite images of their HQ and properties – get a sense of why they would put the HQ where it’s at, google the town to learn about income and significant things in the town Glassdoor – if found anything that’s weird, look into it Look for news on the company, EX: http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/38722953/community-stunned-by-trees-mowed-down-in-west-maui-but-state-defends-project, write it down, the project is starting) Look at BBB Look for information about the industry group – timber, core processors – learn what that is, find what the company is and industry terms and stuff. What’s the business model? Read reviews on websites like Yelp, TripAdvisor, Etc.       Join our free memo distribution list at - www.focusedcompounding.com   Thanks for listening, and be sure to sign up using the promo code **Podcast** to get $10 off your monthly subscription price forever.   Contact Andrew at:  Twitter: @Focusedcompound Email:  info@focusedcompounding.com   Contact Geoff at: Twitter: @GeoffGannon Email:  gannononinvesting@gmail.com  

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Theme: Moses discouraged Point 1: The Failure by Pharaoh, Point 2: The Misjudgment by Israel, Point 3: The Misunderstanding by Moses