Podcast appearances and mentions of william dudley

Former NY Fed & Bloomberg Opinion Columnist William Dudley discusses the labor market and the rising unemployment rate with Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz, and Annmarie Hordern.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Opinion Columnist William Dudley discusses low rates and betting against the Fed with Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Quais os novos desafios da política econômica mundial? Qual o impacto da inteligência artificial na economia? De que maneira podemos reduzir os impactos das mudanças climáticas no mundo? O Economista-chefe do Bradesco, Fernando Honorato, e o Head de pesquisa e estrategista de ações do Bradesco BBI, André Carvalho, conversam nesse episódio com Priscila Forbes sobre os destaques do CEO Forum, organizado pelo Bradesco BBI com investidores em Nova Iorque. No bate-papo, os convidados comentam sobre as perspectivas para a economia global e também sobre os bastidores da conversa com William Dudley, ex-presidente do Fed de Nova Iorque. Confira! #eua #ceoforum #inflacao #juros #ia #inteligencia artificial See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley Chief US Economist, says the nearly two-year high in US continuing jobless claims represents a needed softening in the labor market. Bill Dudley, former New York Fed President & Bloomberg Opinion columnist, says there needs to be significant changes to the treasury market in order to restore strength. Chuck Grom, Gordon Haskett Senior Retail Analyst, says Walmart, Target and Burberry's earnings indicate pressure on the entire retail sector. Michael Hirson, 22V Head of China Research, analyzes President Biden's meeting with Xi Jinping and its implications for both countries. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance    Full Transcript:  This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best an economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. Joining us now, we're thrilled to every usually for big events, So today's a big event. It's always a big event. When Ellen Zenner joins his chief US economist, Morgan Stanley Ellen on claims, I go to the four week moving average. How do you interpret claims with this two hundred thirty one thousand statistic? And can you say there's finally a vector in place of higher claims more pain. So I hope that there's a higher vector in place. I disagree that higher claims will be more pain. We're coming off of extraordinarily low levels. As you said, we look at the four week moving average to smooth through volatility, and it has been lifting, but it is still very low. And so what does that tell me? Something that Mike and Lisa alluded to as well, normalization slowing in normalization, good god man, that's what we've been needing, and I don't see this accelerating at an extreme pace. I've been on the road the last few days in several states meeting with corporate clients. They are finally seeing some relief in terms of how tight the labor market has been in terms of the availability of the kinds of employees that they need. We're seeing not just claims rising a bit here, but I focus on continuing claims. People that have been losing their jobs are staying unemployed for a bit longer, and that's been rising since October, so it's getting more difficult to just get re employed right away. This is the kind of softness in the labor market that we have needed, and of course it takes pressure off the FED to raise rates again. Right going on extended hold, what is the distance between normalization and an outright downturn? So well, the difference is jobs stay positive, So normalization is you've got more supply coming back into the labor market, so you see participation rates rising, which we have. That is what puts upward pressure on the unemployment rate. And we've been seeing that, and if people are having taken longer to be able to get re employed, then that should produce further upward pressure on the unemployment rate. But that just takes pressure off the labor market, pressure off of businesses, off of margins. You see wages grow more slowly, and you'll see confidence build among FED policy makers that they have done enough here. I don't think we're anywhere near getting to negative job gains. I think negative jobs would mean that companies have stopped hiring. What I hear is that they're doing selective hiring, that they stop hiring, and that they start firing, and I mean firing up broadly. And that's just not what we're seeing. But I'm ever watchful, especially reading earnings transcripts, to see if that's something that's around the around the corner. I'm glad you mentioned earnings because we were talking about Walmart, and I understand their idiosyncrasies here, but they talked about potentially seeing outright deflation over the next year with consumers clearly pushing back. You do see margin pressure, you do see a market deterioration and consumer appetite over the past ninety days. How concerning is that to you about the nonlinearity of where things could be. So, Lisa, we put out a consumer survey that goes out into the field every two weeks, and one of the biggest areas of trade down that households have been doing is within stores themselves, say, going from a high priced branded good to the generic good within the store. And that means that those retailers are going to see some deflation. And we've been hearing from businesses that input costs are falling, but prices that they're charged or falling faster. And that's important because we all started to think we the economics community at large, not myself though an exception, started to think that households just have unlimited price tolerance, and that is not the case. Finances start to slow, we run through that excess savings, and you will start to trade down. The lower income groups that Walmart serves are the groups that have been standing the greatest pressure. Look at delinquency rates for the lowest income groups on credit cards on auto loans, that points to stress. Ellen Molly Smith and Alice Atkins for Bloomberg made a big splash the other day using your research, the Morgan Stanley View and the key distinction is a four point three percent unemployment rate. I hereby dubb at the Zentner four point three percent statistic. How do we get to a four point three percent unemployment rate that radically shifts Fed policy? I'm not expecting right close them from the Fed. The unemployment rate at four point three percent, we think is a soft landing unemployment rate in that it is driven by slower job gains and higher labor force participation. Now I understand that is a beautiful scenario for the FED. And we have them cutting next year by one hundred basis points because of normalization. That's very different than cutting because the FED thinks there's a recession. If the FED thinks that there's recession, they're starting big and they're doing a lot, and that's very different than the normalization scenario. And then overlay with that, what we're hearing Julia Coronatto leading the way on this, doctor Coronado suggesting productivity is underestimated. Do you believe that we have an underestimation of the efficiency of the American economy and that gets you to a benevolent four point three percent unemployment rate? Yees, So I do think that productivity is being underestimated. I would add, though, that productivity has not been well estimated, and so you'd have to say, well, it's being estimated you worse than before. And I'm not sure we can say that, but I think there are a lot of new ways that productivity exhibits itself in the economy that we're just not able to capture. Government data is not able to capture. But absolutely, if productivity is higher, then you can withstand higher wage growth without it being inflationary. It gives the FED more runway because it keeps it lid on inflation. And so it's really it lifts all boats. It's productivity and infrastructure or what economists go to sleep at night dreaming about, Tom, which is the reason why I think people are sort of hopeful that we're going to get that and we're going to create this soft landing and avoid something more challenging. I guess to wrap it all up, we've been talking all morning about the potential for deflation. Tom was talking about how difficult that is for any economy to handle. This was the word that Walmart used. But you're talking about normallyation. How concerned would you be to see some sort of material deflation, not disinflation. Deflation, and certain good sectors that we have been seeing on the margins over the past couple of months. Yeah, so, Lisa, good sectors. I'm not worried about it at all. We've goods prices in the US have been in deflation for a decade leading up to COVID. That's normal, right, we were importing a lot of deflation, but that's externally determined. I would be very, very concerned about a deflation scenario in the US for services, for domestically determined prices. For US to get to that broadly, you're talking about an extraordinary downturn on the magnitude of the financial crisis in two thousand and eight that would get that kind of price declines, declines in the level of prices instead. I think deceleration is in train. I think it's going to be faster than the FED is expecting. And I think I've been really pleased, and I think they should be pleased too with the progress that we see. The Newtonian mechanics of Ellen Zentner, of Morgan Stanley there and the dynamics of price change. Ellen, thank you so much for the brief. William Dudley joins us now former New York Fed president of Bloomberg opinion columnist Bill Ewan, I'm going to suggest Professor williams now holding Court in the former Dudley chair, have a unique perspective on our flows, our liquidity, our trust Sitting at the New York Fed. What is the confidence or trust deterioration you've observed. I think there is a complete trust in the New York Fed because that the Fed basically understands the plumbing of the financial system and understands what needs to be done to make sure that plumbing works always, even under times is pressed. One area of vulnerability where the Fed and the treasure you're looking at right now is the treasure market itself, because the buying of treasury borrowing has gone up dramatically and the capacity of the primary dealers to take on that uh that burden has diminished because of all the regulation on capital and leverage. So there do need to be some significant changes, I think, to the treasury market to make it more strong and resilient. And what I propose is a couple of things. One central characteringum of treasuries, so they all go through a central current party, so your risk is just to the central current party. Allows you to net out a lot of bilateral risk to a single risk to one uh end person. Second, increase the leverage the haircuts a bit so that they don't need to be increased during time to stress. Right now, you have low haircuts, and then there's there's stress, and the haircuts go up, which force people to sell. And the last thing which Mike was talking about is opening up the fens repo facility more broadly, making it so that people can take treasures and turn them into cash at any time. And if they know that, then they don't actually have to sell the treasures, you know, in anticipation of a problem. They can wait to see if they actually need the care bill if none of that gets done. Do you think the action we've seen and what you expect compromises the QT program coming out of the FED. No, I don't think so. I mean, I think the QT program basically is on autopilot as long as there isn't a lot of market disruptions. So if the market performs reasonably well, then QT keeps going. Only if we have the kind of events like we had in September twenty nineteen or market twenty twenty, we can see QT is suspended because if the market isn't working right, the last thing the Fed wants to do is done more securities in the marketplace. What's as take here, Bill, If there isn't this sort of fix that you propose or this three pronged proposal, how much are we seeing what sort of the new normal looks like with bouncing around twenty basis points on a ten year yield from day to day versus something more significant that creates a real crisis in the world's deepest and most liquid market. I think the volatility we've seen this year is not a treasure market function problem. I think the volatility we've seen this year is people trying to figure out what what's the trajectory of short term rates over the next six to twelve months, and there's been lots of changes in view as the economic data has come out. I think the problem is more when all sudden people want it dump treasuries and there's not enough capacity on their side to absorb that. That has happened a few times, and obviously it needs it needs a catalyst, and it's hard to predict what that catalyst could be, But what I want is a treasury market that can handle those kind of shocks if and when they occur. Are you saying that right now there is an inability. What do you expect will happen if there is some sort of catalyst, Well, if there's sometimes are cast One of the problems we allowed the treasury trading is handled by algorithmic traders who basically don't really provide long term liquity to the market. They just provide liquidity for a microsecond and then they move it security off to someone else, and when things get scary, they completely withdraw from the market, and then the market is really now then has to go to the primary dealer community. But the primary dealer commun has an allocated capital to this business because most of the time they're actually not doing it, so there's no one there sort of an extremist provide balance sheet capacity to sort of come the market. And that's one reason why you'd like to have the ability to take your treasury security to the FED and turn them into cash without actually having to sell them. So the Treasury is only one the FED is the only one that has a balance sheet that is actually elastic, So why not make it clear that that elastic balance sheet available on an ex anti basis as opposed to only exposts after the vice she had the problem? Bill, how does our data dependency look next year? I think we've had a celebration of disinflation in place. Is the nature or character of the Fed's data dependency different now and forward? Well, I think they're more confident that they've moved monetary policy to a restrictive level and it's actually working to bring down inflation. But we still don't know a lot of things. We don't really know if how tight monetary policy is. We don't know how long it's going to take to get inflation down to two percent. So I think the degree of uncertainty risk is a lot less less today than it was, say, eighteen months ago, when the Fed started the tightening process. But there's still a lot of uncertainty about how strong the economics can being, whether the Fed is done. What a roller coaster write this bond market has been on over the last few months, Bell, what if for? To catch up with you? SA always is former New York Fed President Bill Dutley. There an interesting thought provoking piece from Bill on the future of this treasury market. We talked to a lot of experts on this, and this is what you get if you get a double degree at the you claimed holy Cross, the College of the Holy Cross, and economics in accounting, the hyper detail, mathematics, ratios, the financial analysis of retail that Chuck Rahm has acclaimed for. He's a Gordon Haskett. I'm not going to mince words. We protect the copyright of all of our guests. Get his brilliance from Gordon A Hausket. How do you go and outperform on Walmart with a thirty pe? Explain why Walmart has a pe like a luxury goods pervader. And Walmart's been executing lawlessly for several quarters and even maybe the past couple of years, and the business mixshift and the gross market visibility. I mean, there's never been a time in the twenty years I've covered Walmart where I've been this bullish on the long term outlook. Clearly today it's interesting. It's a little bit about positioning. You guys talked in your remarks about valuation. That's a factor if you really dig it underneath the covers here, it's really less about the top line. And I think less about the back half of October commentary that the CFO recently made. I think it's more about the margin flow through that was disappointing. The US margins were disappointing. So when you have a stock at an all time high, at very rich valuations and you get a little bit but disconnect, you get this negative reaction. I think the stock will come back throughout the day and over the next couple of weeks, but today could be difficult for the stock. Can they compete with Amazon or Darra I never said this before, Chuck Grum, But can they beat Amazon? I don't know if they can beat Amazon, but they can definitely compete. And I think the physical assets of their four thousand plus stores in the country really provide them with being really close and being able to connect with their customers. So Walmart plus there's a lot of opportunity there. So can they beat Probably not, but can they compete one hundred percent? Chuck, you said that margins disappointed, and that's really interesting At a time where people are wondering when are consumers is going to start pushing back on price increases? Is this an indication that Walmart is seeing that that time is now and then order for them to compete, they've got to take a hit on the margins. Well, I think almost uniformly, you know, consumers are pushing back on price and that's why prices are coming down almost across the board. And can we cover Home Depot, we cover TJ, we cover you know Hard, you know, Macy's, Walmart, They're all talking about prices starting to flatten out and retreat. I think the US margins were softer because of the GLP influence on the on the margins because of the drug. It's a lower margin product. It was a higher sales in here in the quarter. And when you have discretionary sales be softer, those are higher margin categories for Walmart. So it's really a mixed factor. It looks like obviously the calls at eight o'clock and the callbacks are later in the day, so we'll get more clarity later in the day. But looking at what it looks like now, I think it's more of a mixed factor. You know, we were talking earlier about what's good news or bad news for the broader economy. When Walmart does headly or well in terms of which consumers are shopping, there is there any read through based on the earnings that we've gotten from retailers about whether we're seeing a division between haves and have nots, about whether we are seeing any broader trends in terms of how the consumer is evolving, Which areas are going to be bright spots and which won't. That's a great question. I think it's really too early to tell. I mean, you look at Walmart's numbers, they're up, you know, comp up five, Target yesterday down five. You know, you look at Macy's down six or seven. Here, it looks pretty uniform. I think there's pressures across the board. It's not really like the high end doing well. You guys talked about Berbery earlier. We'll get more color from Nordstrom next week. I think it's pretty uniform across the board. And you know, we've been talking about our consumer surveys being weak, traffic being weak. Today's numbers and the reactions here over the past forty eight hours have really nothing to do with the top line. The top line and the sales are pretty much in line with where people thought. It's a positioning and it's the margin flow throughs for certain companies. What's the future of Nordstrom's the family dynamic and also the attempt to be luxury. I guess what I is an amateur, I'd say is accessible luxury. Is nord Strum a sleeper for five years out? I think it's a great concept. I think the rack has really been their achilles heel over the past several years. So if they could get the rack fix. I think the fact that they all have a huge presence of full line stores across the country is actually a tremendous asset piece of v Coals or Macy's, which have got hundreds of stores. So I think it's I think it's a viable concept. They need to get the rack fixed, and that's what people and investors have been waiting for. Chuck, what's the rack? It's a ro off price division. And what do you mean by fixed? What's wrong with it? Well, when you look at you know, you look at TJ and Ross comping up, you know, load of mid single digits, and you see the rack comping down. It's just it's been broken. I mean it's their business hasn't been good. It seems like there's been some cannibalization across the store base. We're not exactly. Sure, there's been some merchandise issues. They've tried to price up when when the consumer wanted to be priced down. But yeah, the North From viable for sure. But the rack division, the off price division, I'm sorry, we're not clarifying earlier. Is really the No, It's okay now, I know, I'm just just for people who are trying to follow. Have you noticed, Chuck that the off rack the rack is actually close to the Nord from stores. Have you noticed that, which is kind of odd. Yeah, I mean I could tell you my wife, We'll tend to go to the rack now a lot more than a bowl line. So that's what I'm talking about. The cannibalization factor of that is probably maybe the issue here, and maybe they need to close more rack stores, but you know, ironically, they're trying to grow more right now. So we're old rated, we're kind of we're kind of perplexed on some of the strategies there. For the time being, it's trying to be TJX and knowst them at the same time with the same grand it's hot to do, Chuck, Thank you, Chuck Goldenske, thank you mate. Right now and these important meets we're making jokes about it. Come on, this is important. Michael Hurston joins and I had a China research a twenty two v AT research. Michael, thank you so much for briefing us this morning. What did you What was the unexpected that you saw last night? Besides a dictator faux pap by the president late? What was the unexpected of the meeting? Nothing too unexpected, frank, which I think is good. Maybe the Chinese readout perhaps was a bit more positive than I was expecting, and that really reflects what has been a bit of a excuse me, a recalibration in China's official tone towards the US over the last few weeks. But other than that, I would say, no big surprises, Okay, no big surprise is great. What's next? When's the next meeting? Is the President travel to China to make it too well? I think that's actually a really important point, Tom, because this is basically the last high profile meeting that the two leaders are going to have before the next US presidential election. So this kind of sets the parameters for the next year, and those parameters really are trying to find stability, not allowing a crisis to take place over something like Timewan and then just making incremental progress on some of the key issues in the relationship. But if you think about it, the closer we got to the US presidential election, the harder it will be for Biden to do anything that's seen as being soft on China. And of course, why would chi Jinpang make concessions to the US when he doesn't know who the next president will be. So I think that's where we are. That's why this was kind of an important window for the two leaders to meet. Did the dictator comment mean anything to you? Not really. I don't want to dismiss it entirely. I think it probably was perhaps not the positive tone to go out on, But I think in the grand scheme, given how much work both sides did to try to make this meeting happen, I don't think it's going to color too much on the Chinese side. What did you make of the meetings that Xijimpang had with US executives apples, Tim Cook for example, a whole host of others, and then a private meeting with Elon Musk. What's your takeaway of how different the business view on China is from the US government's view on that country. I think there are a few very prominent US firms that have this special position in China where and that would put Apple and Tesla very much as the two bell Weathers in that category. They have managed this straddle between the US and China. It's not an easy straddle on either side, but they're kind of a special category. If you look at the broader set of US firms in China, it's really a mix between those who feel like they have a decent market in China and those who are really upset about China's policies. And so I would put Tesla and Apple in this kind of special category, and so it's no surprise that they got some special attention from CHICHIPI do you have a sense of who needs who more? Of whether Tesla and Apple need China more than China needs them and the jobs that they provide. It's an interesting question. I would say for the companies they need app they need China more. But if we're talking about Apple and Tesla, they are very important bell Weathers for how the business community looks at the playing field in China, and not just the US business community, that's Europeans, Japanese, you know, global companies in China, which is why I think Beijing actually has to tread very carefully with things like, for example, potential retaliation against Apple. So yeah, the companies need China work, but these are quite important that Chi Jinping looks to try to revive confidence in China's economy and China's investment environment. Michael, A question we haven't brought up yet. I've been remiss on this is Hong Kong. Is Hong Kong going to evolve into something that we don't see right now? Is there a Hearson Hong Kong out there that's going to be different. I think Hong Kong, really, and I was just there last week, is in this somewhat gradual transition from a global hub to really more of a pure capital gateway to China and is increasing becoming more of a Chinese city. That is still an interesting position for it to play. And a number of China watchers that I've had discussions with recently have made the point that they think Hong Kong is going to remain an interesting city as the political environment in China states very tight and in some cases even titans further so, Hong Kong losing its status as a global financial center, but still quite an important city in the context of in particular context of China. So what's the alternative for those people whining and dining with mister g last night. What city do they go to? I think if we're talking about the financial sector, you know, it's a number of places. Singapore obviously has has gained a step, even Tokyo has become more important as a regional financial center. If we're talking about the multinationals there, you know, it's wherever they can get capacity and wherever they can get the logistics right. So in many cases is you know, you mentioned Vietnam earlier, Vietnam, Fishary, but it's also Mexico. It's a lot of countries. Michael, we got to leave you that. Thanks for Aminus, Michael Hesson that have twenty two vave research. Thank you very much. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Easter. I'm Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always I'm the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen, and this is BloombergSee 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To celebrate hitting 2k followers on Twitter, I decided to unlock the first part of our investigation into Pelley, Gen. Smedley Butler, & the Wall St. Putsch conspirators—enjoy. Two ways to support PPM: follow @parapower_mapping on Insta & subscribe to the Patreon before Pt. III drops in a couple days: patreon.com/ParaPowerMapping We're talking Bill Pelley—literal Nazi agent, Christian Theosophical crank, spiritualist, newspaperman, espionage agent, screenwriter, reborn clairvoyant, founder of a UFO cult, Soulcrafter, publisher of shitty antisemitic magazines, & founder of an American Nazi paramilitary known as the Silver Legion. But first, we parse the failed Wall St. Putsch (aka Bizness Plot), setting the stage for our investigation of Pelley, as various industrialist backers of the scheme, conspirators, & the legislative body that uncovered it (maybe involuntarily) figure into W.D.P's story. We're talking McCormack-Dickstein Committee, predecessor to HUAC; Maj. Gen. Smedley Butler, Alfred P. Sloan, I. DuPont, JP Morgan Jr., Prescott Bush, Felix & Max Warburg, Grayson Murphy, Gerald Macguire, & a # of references to Henry Ford in this one. We discuss:  Marine Corps Gen. Butler & the Bonus Army; possibility the American Legion was funded w/ coups in mind; FDR cucked by Wall St.; the Putsch's origins in Executive Order 6102; Biz Plot taking inspiration from German putsches; John L. Spivak's exposé in "New Masses"—gotta give it to Spivak for his farsighted analysis of the capitalist underpinnings of rising fascism in Germany & US; coup organizer Gerry MacGuire's sus death at 36 yrs old a mere year or 2 after the plan unraveled; the Co. that had Murphy as board member; Robert Sterling Clark serving under Butler = potential complicity; Butler's undercover escapade in Standard Oil-backed int'l espionage; Butler, Clark, & Murphy's shared military campaigns (China, Boxer Rebellion, & Philippine-American War specifically); speculation about whether—contrary to the conscientious antiwar activist portrayals—Smedley was infiltrating antiwar & left mvmts in US; Butler's military career lasting exactly 33 years (

Welcome back to ParaPower Mapping. We cont. our comp. paranoid analysis of the history of Nazi occultism today by examining a fairly-forgotten figure in contemporary America: William Dudley Pelley—literal Nazi agent, Christian Theosophical crank, spiritualist, newspaperman, int'l espionage agent, screenwriter, reborn clairvoyant, founder of a UFO cult, Soulcrafter, publisher of shitty antisemitic magazines, & founder of the American Nazi paramilitary known as the Silver Legion. Full Version: patreon.com/ParaPowerMapping But first, we attempt to parse the failed Wall St. Putsch (aka Bizness Plot), setting the stage for our investigation of Pelley, as various plutocratic & industrialist backers of the scheme, conspirators, & the legislative body that uncovered it (maybe involuntarily) figure into W.D.P's story. We're talking McCormack-Dickstein Committee, predecessor to HUAC; Maj. Gen. Smedley Butler, Alfred P. Sloan, I. DuPont, JP Morgan Jr., Prescott Bush, Felix & Max Warburg, Grayson Murphy, Gerald Macguire, etc.; a # of references to Henry Ford in this one. We discuss: Marine Corps Gen. Butler & the Bonus Army; possibility the American Legion was funded w/ coups in mind; FDR cucked by Wall St.; the Putsch's origins in Executive Order 6102; Biz Plot taking inspiration from German putsches; John L. Spivak's exposé in "New Masses"—gotta give it to Spivak for his farsighted analysis of the capitalist underpinnings of rising fascism in Germany & US; coup organizer Gerry MacGuire's sus death at 36 yrs old a mere year or 2 after the plan unraveled; the corporations that counted Murphy as board member; Robert Sterling Clark serving under Butler = potential complicity; Butler's undercover escapade in Standard Oil-backed int'l espionage; Butler, Clark, & Murphy's shared military campaigns (China, Boxer Rebellion, & Philippine-American War specifically); speculations about whether, contrary to the conscientious antiwar activist he's often portrayed as, Smedley was infiltrating socialist & communist mvmts in the US; Butler's military career lasting exactly 33 years (

William Dudley, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist & Former New York Fed President, recommends the Fed pause at Wednesday's meeting. Max Kettner, HSBC Chief Multi-Asset Strategist, says European banks are looking "more and more attractive" despite market turmoil. Mayra Rodriguez Valladares, MRV Associates Managing Principal, says regional banks in the US are still sensitive to this crisis in confidence. Leon Cooperman, Omega Family Office Chairman & CEO, says the banking crisis is "self-induced." Michael Arougheti, Ares Management Corporation Co-Founder, CEO and President, says the Fed is doing everything supposed to in order to provide confidence.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One man's horrifying journey from toilet paper salesman to famous author to spiritual guru to American Hitler to space brother. Transcript, sources, links and more at https://order-of-the-jackalope.com/seven-minutes-in-heaven/ Key sources for this episode include Bradley W. Hart's Hitler's American Friends: The Third Reich's Supporters in the United States; Gustavus Myers's History of Bigotry in the United States; and Scott Beekman's William Dudley Pelley: A Life in Right-Wing Extremism and the Occult. Presented by #13 (Dave White) Artist. Lover. Social Media Unfluencer. Acknowledged authority on lucrative bogs. Dave White is all this and more. But most days he's a web developer, graphic designer, and cartoonist. He lives in Pittsburgh with his wife, his two cats, and his crippling obsession with strange trivia. Discord: https://discord.gg/Mbap3UQyCB Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/orderjackalope/ Instagram: https://instagram.com/orderjackalope Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/user/orderjackalope Tumblr: https://orderjackalope.tumblr.com Twitter: https://twitter.com/orderjackalope Email: jackalope@order-of-the-jackalope.com Part of the That's Not Canon Productions podcast network. https://thatsnotcanon.com/

This episode is sponsored by EY.On today's episode of “Money Reimagined,” hosts Michael Casey and Sheila Warren explore some recent work by the Bretton Woods Committee, a body that was founded in 1983 to help improve the effectiveness of international financial institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The latest brief from the Bretton Woods Committee highlights the potential blockchain technologies have in boosting privacy, lowering costs associated with international payments and remittances and advancing financial inclusion. The hosts are joined by one of the brief's authors, Deepika Sharma, who is a director of research within the multi assets, strategies and solutions group at BlackRock; and by William Dudley, the chairman of the committee's board of directors and former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.This episode was produced and edited by Michele Musso with announcements by Adam B. Levine with additional production support from Eleanor Pahl and Nia Freeman. Our theme song is “Shepard.”-EY is proud to sponsor “Money Reimagined.” As businesses prepare for the token economy, EY is committed to building a better working world and connecting global business ecosystems on the public Ethereum blockchain. To learn more about the EY Blockchain portfolio of products and services, visit blockchain.ey.com.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Episode Notes It's our long-awaited (by some) look at William Dudley Pelley--fascist mystic, convicted seditionist, and a figure long associated with the dawn of Contacteeism. Like the show and want more? Subscribe to our Patreon! Website Twitter Instagram Facebook This podcast is powered by Pinecast.

The U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have crafted new monetary policy frameworks for an era in which interest rates are hovering close to zero. The Fed's flexible average inflation targeting approach aims at inflation that averages 2% over time; when inflation has been running persistently below that level, the Fed will aim for inflation moderately above 2% for some time. It also aims at a “broad-based and inclusive” definition of maximum employment. The ECB says its goal is inflation of 2% over the medium term, and it describes its commitment to this target as symmetric (meaning it would be equally concerned about below- and above-target inflation). Are these new frameworks well understood by markets, businesses, consumers, and politicians? Have the central banks communicated them well? How have these frameworks been implemented so far? Are they well-suited for the current economic environment? The Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy at Brookings hosted a discussion of these issues by Richard Clarida, vice chair of the Federal Reserve Board; Philip Lane, member of the ECB's Executive Board; and Ben Bernanke, distinguished senior fellow at Brookings and former chair of the Federal Reserve. Following that discussion was a panel of Fed watchers—Julia Coronado of Macro Policy Perspectives; William Dudley, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; and Tiffany Wilding of PIMCO.   Subscribe to Brookings Events on iTunes, send feedback email to events@brookings.edu, and follow us and tweet us at @policypodcasts on Twitter. To learn more about upcoming events, visit our website. Brookings Events is part of the Brookings Podcast Network.

It's the conclusion to our series on the most racist, hate-filled mystic America has ever seen, The Star-Spangled Fascist, William Dudley Pelley! In this episode we mostly focus on the Silver Legion, a pro-Nazi group founded by Pelley in 1933. We also go into the Christian Commonwealth idea, the spiritual teachings of Soulcraft and much more. WDP may be our most hated person, which is really saying something at this point. And seriously. Screw Nazis.

Welcome to the 1st episode of Our Spiritual Fall! We are kicking things off with possibly the most hateable mystic mind to ever walk American soil; the founder of the American Nazi movement, William Dudley Pelley. In this probing series we get into all aspects of his life including his early newspaper days, career as a writer and 1920s Hollywood screenwriter, Toilet Paper maker and how he became a spiritual leader.

William Dudley, Former New York Fed President and Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says he would "absolutely" support Jerome Powell for a second term as Fed Chair. Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, expects a decently-sized market pullback by the end of the year. Mike Darda, MKM Partners Chief Economist & Macro Strategist, says the U.S. labor market is undeterred by the delta variant's impact. Sabra Klein, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Professor & Microbiologist, is most concerned about pregnant women and children with the delta variant. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

William Dudley, Former New York Fed President and Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says he would "absolutely" support Jerome Powell for a second term as Fed Chair. Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, expects a decently-sized market pullback by the end of the year. Mike Darda, MKM Partners Chief Economist & Macro Strategist, says the U.S. labor market is undeterred by the delta variant's impact. Sabra Klein, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Professor & Microbiologist, is most concerned about pregnant women and children with the delta variant. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

William Dudley, Former Federal Reserve Bank of New York President and Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says the Fed is happy with rising inflation expectations. Glenn Hubbard, Columbia Professor of Economics & Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, longer-term persistent inflation needs to be watched more closely. Julian Emanuel, BTIG Chief Equity and Derivatives Strategist, says meme stock "rocket ships eventually go back to their launch pads." Dr. Jennifer Nuzzo, Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security Senior Scholar, says pragmatism is needed for vaccine passports. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

William Dudley, Former Federal Reserve Bank of New York President and Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says the Fed is happy with rising inflation expectations. Glenn Hubbard, Columbia Professor of Economics & Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, longer-term persistent inflation needs to be watched more closely. Julian Emanuel, BTIG Chief Equity and Derivatives Strategist, says meme stock "rocket ships eventually go back to their launch pads." Dr. Jennifer Nuzzo, Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security Senior Scholar, says pragmatism is needed for vaccine passports.

The pandemic has upended the way the world shops, worships and especially how often we wash our hands. With the virus waning in many parts of the globe (while still raging in some places, like India and Brazil), economists and policymakers are debating whether our societal quarantine workarounds will persist -- or be jettisoned by summer's end.  On this week's podcast, host Stephanie Flanders takes a rare break from moderating and hands the microphone to Sebastian Mallaby of the U.S.-based Council on Foreign Relations for a discussion of the pandemic's economic effects. William Dudley, former president of the New York Federal Reserve, explains why the inflation fears that have gripped the U.S. are likely just a short-term reaction to surging consumer demand. Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, suggests the Euro is emerging as a winner in the ``relative ugliness contest'' among world currencies. And, Flanders argues that, while countries including the U.K. have a new focus on ``living local,'' it's no real threat to globalization.

William Dudley, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist & Former New York Federal Reserve President, says rates will climb much higher than expected once the Fed does begin to hike. Jared Bernstein, Council of Economic Advisers Member, says having childcare in the infrastructure package is a high priority. Francisco Blanch, BofA Securities Head of Global Commodities & Derivatives Research, says copper could go as high 20K per ton if the supply of scarp doesn't make it into the market. Arvind Krishna, IBM Chairman & CEO, says AI will be infused into every enterprise and every process this century. Sarah Hunt, Alpine Woods Capital Investors Portfolio Manager, says tech still has a lot of pricing power. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

William Dudley, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist & Former New York Federal Reserve President, says rates will climb much higher than expected once the Fed does begin to hike. Jared Bernstein, Council of Economic Advisers Member, says having childcare in the infrastructure package is a high priority. Francisco Blanch, BofA Securities Head of Global Commodities & Derivatives Research, says copper could go as high 20K per ton if the supply of scarp doesn't make it into the market. Arvind Krishna, IBM Chairman & CEO, says AI will be infused into every enterprise and every process this century. Sarah Hunt, Alpine Woods Capital Investors Portfolio Manager, says tech still has a lot of pricing power.

William Dudley, Former New York Federal Reserve President, says the Fed's slowness to tighten policy will create some risks to the economy. Jacob Frenkel, Group of Thirty Chairman of the Board of Trustees, says countries can't afford to be isolationist. Jing Ulrich, JPMorgan Chase Managing Director & Vice Chairman of Asia Pacific, says Chinese authorities are tightening liquidity because the economic recovery is fully on track. Tony Rodriguez, Nuveen Asset Management Head of Fixed Income Strategy, says the high yield market is well-positioned. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

William Dudley, Former New York Federal Reserve President, says the Fed's slowness to tighten policy will create some risks to the economy. Jacob Frenkel, Group of Thirty Chairman of the Board of Trustees, says countries can't afford to be isolationist. Jing Ulrich, JPMorgan Chase Managing Director & Vice Chairman of Asia Pacific, says Chinese authorities are tightening liquidity because the economic recovery is fully on track. Tony Rodriguez, Nuveen Asset Management Head of Fixed Income Strategy, says the high yield market is well-positioned.

William Dudley, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist & Former New York Fed President, says the U.S. economic and labor market recovery could happen faster than people think. Dan Ives, Wedbush Securities Analyst, sees a tidal wave of tech M&A coming. Greg Boutle, BNP Paribas U.S. Head of Equity & Derivative Strategy, discusses recent changes in market volatility. Heidi Shierholz, Economic Policy Institute Senior Economist & Director of Policy, discusses what it will take to get the labor market back on track. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

William Dudley, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist & Former New York Fed President, says the U.S. economic and labor market recovery could happen faster than people think. Dan Ives, Wedbush Securities Analyst, sees a tidal wave of tech M&A coming. Greg Boutle, BNP Paribas U.S. Head of Equity & Derivative Strategy, discusses recent changes in market volatility. Heidi Shierholz, Economic Policy Institute Senior Economist & Director of Policy, discusses what it will take to get the labor market back on track.

Jared Bernstein, a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, says much of the Biden administration's pandemic relief bill is "targeted at those at the bottom leg of this K-shaped recovery." William Dudley, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist and Former New York Fed President, doesn't expect the Fed to act until late 2021 or early 2022. Tom Forte, D.A. Davidson Senior Research Analyst, discusses Jeff Bezos' surprise resignation and his successor Andy Jassy, head of Amazon Web Services. Kristen Bitterly, Citi Private Bank Head of Capital Markets for the Americas, sees a lot of cash on the sidelines. Read Full Article

Jared Bernstein, a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, says much of the Biden administration's pandemic relief bill is "targeted at those at the bottom leg of this K-shaped recovery." William Dudley, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist and Former New York Fed President, doesn't expect the Fed to act until late 2021 or early 2022. Tom Forte, D.A. Davidson Senior Research Analyst, discusses Jeff Bezos' surprise resignation and his successor Andy Jassy, head of Amazon Web Services. Kristen Bitterly, Citi Private Bank Head of Capital Markets for the Americas, sees a lot of cash on the sidelines. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Jared Bernstein, a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, says much of the Biden administration's pandemic relief bill is "targeted at those at the bottom leg of this K-shaped recovery." William Dudley, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist and Former New York Fed President, doesn't expect the Fed to act until late 2021 or early 2022. Tom Forte, D.A. Davidson Senior Research Analyst, discusses Jeff Bezos' surprise resignation and his successor Andy Jassy, head of Amazon Web Services. Kristen Bitterly, Citi Private Bank Head of Capital Markets for the Americas, sees a lot of cash on the sidelines.

William Dudley, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist & Former New York Fed President, says it is very likely the Fed will extend its emergency loan programs. Mona Mahajan, Allianz Global Investors U.S. Investment Strategist, says bond rates will remain low throughout 2021. Tom Forte, D.A. Davidson Senior Research Analyst, says pharmacy is a trillion-dollar opportunity for Amazon. Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group & GZERO Media President, details challenges facing the new administration as President-elect Biden begins to navigate delicate U.S. foreign relations. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

William Dudley, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist & Former New York Fed President, says it is very likely the Fed will extend its emergency loan programs. Mona Mahajan, Allianz Global Investors U.S. Investment Strategist, says bond rates will remain low throughout 2021. Tom Forte, D.A. Davidson Senior Research Analyst, says pharmacy is a trillion-dollar opportunity for Amazon. Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group & GZERO Media President, details challenges facing the new administration as President-elect Biden begins to navigate delicate U.S. foreign relations.

Robert Kaplan, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President, says the Fed has already given enough guidance about the likely path of interest rates at this juncture and doesn't need to offer more. William Dudley, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist and Former New York Fed President, discusses the skepticism facing the Fed's new approach to setting monetary policy. Mark Kiesel, PIMCO CIO of Global Credit, says the Fed has been "unbelievably supportive" for markets and this will eventually lead to a steeper yield curve and higher rates. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Founder & Co-Executive Chairman, highlights some of his favorite interviews with leaders featured in his new book, "How to Lead." Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Robert Kaplan, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President, says the Fed has already given enough guidance about the likely path of interest rates at this juncture and doesn’t need to offer more. William Dudley, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist and Former New York Fed President, discusses the skepticism facing the Fed's new approach to setting monetary policy. Mark Kiesel, PIMCO CIO of Global Credit, says the Fed has been "unbelievably supportive" for markets and this will eventually lead to a steeper yield curve and higher rates. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Founder & Co-Executive Chairman, highlights some of his favorite interviews with leaders featured in his new book, "How to Lead."

Today we discuss William Dudley Pelley, one of the original, if not the original, American fascists. His slow migration from hateful nazi grift to spiritually-aligned hateful grift rings a few bells, but we're talking the bottom of the barrel here folks. A real piece of garbage's piece of garbage. Also, phrenology, again, is wrong.. Enjoy!

Mike and Khalid join Tom and Don to discuss William Dudley Pelley, an eccentric writer who promoted his own unique brand of American fascism and a complex spiritual system. Beginning his career in Hollywood, Pelley becomes an important influence on everything from grail quests to UFOs. We dig into his life and ideas as we set up a series about the connections between esotericism and postwar American politics. References: William Dudley Pelley: A Life in Right-Wing Extremism and the Occult by Scott Beekman, The Terrorist Next Door by Daniel Levitas and Steven Snyder's VISUP blog: visupview.blogspot.com Mentioned: A Case at Law (1917), One-Thing-at-a-Time O'Day (1919), What Women Love (1920), The Light in the Dark (1922), My Seven Minutes in Eternity by William Dudley Pelley, The Over-Soul by Ralph Waldo Emerson, No More Hunger by William Dudley Pelley, Dark Crystal (1982), Mind War by Michael Aquino

William Dudley, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist and Former New York Federal Reserve President, says if there is no extension of unemployment benefits there will be consequences in consumer spending. Ralph Schlosstein, Evercore Co-Chairman and Co-CEO, says the most important thing for every company to look at is liquidity. Meredith Sumpter, Eurasia Group Head of Research Strategy & Operations, expects the U.S. to continue escalation with China after the closure of the Chinese consulate in Houston. Admiral James Stavridis, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist and Former Supreme Allied Commander at NATO, says the greatest challenge facing the U.S. in this century is China. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

William Dudley, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist and Former New York Federal Reserve President, says if there is no extension of unemployment benefits there will be consequences in consumer spending. Ralph Schlosstein, Evercore Co-Chairman and Co-CEO, says the most important thing for every company to look at is liquidity. Meredith Sumpter, Eurasia Group Head of Research Strategy & Operations, expects the U.S. to continue escalation with China after the closure of the Chinese consulate in Houston. Admiral James Stavridis, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist and Former Supreme Allied Commander at NATO, says the greatest challenge facing the U.S. in this century is China.

Recent events are having far-reaching consequences for the US economy, affecting all parts of society and the outlook of policy-makers and market participants. William Dudley, former president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, joins Mark Sobel for a conversation about the US economy and his outlook on the years ahead. Taimur Baig, chief economist at DBS Bank, provides a first response and reflections. To listen further, click here.  Music: https://www.bensound.com/royalty-free-music    

OMFIF's Julie Levy-Abegnoli looks back over some of the most recent articles published on the OMFIF website, including those on flattening the debt curve, transatlantic monetary theory, and the International Monetary Fund's epic virus battle. Articles and other items referenced: Flattening the debt curve: https://www.omfif.org/2020/06/flattening-the-debt-curve/ US unprepared for money supply boom: https://www.omfif.org/2020/06/us-unprepared-for-money-supply-boom/ IMF's epic virus challenge: https://www.omfif.org/2020/06/imfs-epic-virus-challenge/ Cambodia edges towards digital payments: https://www.omfif.org/2020/06/cambodia-edges-towards-digital-payments/ In conversation with William Dudley: https://www.omfif.org/events/in-conversation-with-william-dudley-us-economic-policy-and-outlook/ Perspectives on the economy in the wake of Covid-19: https://www.omfif.org/events/perspectives-on-the-economy-in-the-wake-of-covid-19/ Practical steps towards a capital markets union: https://www.omfif.org/events/practical-steps-towards-a-capital-markets-union/  Music: Hey Mercy by Pierce Murphy is licensed under an Attribution License.  

William Dudley, Former New York Federal Reserve President and Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, warns that a $10 trillion Fed balance sheet could be coming, but says the risks seem manageable for now. James Sweeney, Credit Suisse Chief Economist, says housing inflation is likely to put pressure on U.S. inflation. Patrick Foye, MTA Chairman & CEO, describes the health precautions being taken in the New York City subway system as the city moves into phase 2 of its reopening plan. Jane Foley, Rabobank FX Strategist, says if the markets stay optimistic due to central bank funding, the dollar will suffer. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

William Dudley, Former New York Federal Reserve President and Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, warns that a $10 trillion Fed balance sheet could be coming, but says the risks seem manageable for now. James Sweeney, Credit Suisse Chief Economist, says housing inflation is likely to put pressure on U.S. inflation. Patrick Foye, MTA Chairman & CEO, describes the health precautions being taken in the New York City subway system as the city moves into phase 2 of its reopening plan. Jane Foley, Rabobank FX Strategist, says if the markets stay optimistic due to central bank funding, the dollar will suffer.

Vincent Reinhart, BNY Mellon Asset Management Chief Economist says central banks do not create extra demand; they borrow it. William Dudley, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist and Former Fed President, discusses his latest column on the repo market. Austan Goolsbee, University of Chicago Booth School Professor and Former White House Economic Adviser to President Obama, says there are parts of the economy that are quite weak despite the unemployment rate being low. Dr. Jennifer Rohn, University College London Principal Research Associate, says there may be a delay of developing information surrounding the coronavirus coming from China. Dan Ives, Wedbush Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, says the IPhone 11 product cycle is much stronger than anyone could have anticipated, especially in China. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Vincent Reinhart, BNY Mellon Asset Management Chief Economist says central banks do not create extra demand; they borrow it. William Dudley, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist and Former Fed President, discusses his latest column on the repo market. Austan Goolsbee, University of Chicago Booth School Professor and Former White House Economic Adviser to President Obama, says there are parts of the economy that are quite weak despite the unemployment rate being low. Dr. Jennifer Rohn, University College London Principal Research Associate, says there may be a delay of developing information surrounding the coronavirus coming from China. Dan Ives, Wedbush Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, says the IPhone 11 product cycle is much stronger than anyone could have anticipated, especially in China.

When The New American reviewed William Dudley’s Bloomberg article suggesting moves by which the Federal Reserve could hurt President Trump’s reelection chances, Dudley’s tight connections to the Deep State were revealed: Read the article here!

Voormalig FED-president William Dudley zal ongetwijfeld spijt krijgen van de uitspraak die hij gisteren deed. Misschien is het een goed idee als de FED actief beleid voert om de herverkiezing van Trump te saboteren. Niet zo handig, vindt macro-econoom Kees de Kort. 'Nu komen er bij de ECB en de FED discussies over politieke voorkeuren op gang. Een positief effect hiervan zou kunnen zijn dat mensen zich beginnen af te vragen wat die centrale bankiers eigenlijk aan het doen zijn.'

"They don't have to like it, but it's not their job to destroy it."Try on William's shoes and take a moment to see the world through his eyes. William's story was produced by Melissa Viney, and was collected when our A Mile in My Shoes exhibit was part of the London International Festival of Theatre.More about our A Mile in My Shoes project: https://www.empathymuseum.com/a-mile-in-my-shoes/Find out where Empathy Museum will travel to next: https://www.empathymuseum.com/where-to-find-us/ See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Vince Cable, U.K. Liberal Democrat Party Leader, says India will overtake China. Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank Global Co-Head of FX Strategy, says the ECB has its hands tied.  William Dudley, Princeton Senior Research Scholar & Former Federal Reserve Bank Of New York President, thinks Fed tightening might be on the table in the second half of 2019. Sarah House, Wells Fargo Securities Senior Economist, notes financial conditions are the easiest since last October. Saleha Mohsin, Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Department Reporter, says markets and China want a deescalation of tariffs.  Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Vince Cable, U.K. Liberal Democrat Party Leader, says India will overtake China. Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank Global Co-Head of FX Strategy, says the ECB has its hands tied.  William Dudley, Princeton Senior Research Scholar & Former Federal Reserve Bank Of New York President, thinks Fed tightening might be on the table in the second half of 2019. Sarah House, Wells Fargo Securities Senior Economist, notes financial conditions are the easiest since last October. Saleha Mohsin, Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Department Reporter, says markets and China want a deescalation of tariffs. 

Part 2 of our miniseries on Hitler's American Friends from author Bradley Hart, we learn about an American organization that mirrored the Nazi's in ruthlessness, exclusiveness, and terror — The Silver Legions. Embracing lawlessness, violence, and power, The Silver Legion's "Chief" William Dudley Pelley dangerously aligned himself with Hitler's goals and attempted to seize power in the United States. Learn more about Hitler's American Friends: The Third Reich's Supporters in the United States by reading this episode's full transcript or picking up the book! Transcript on Quick and Dirty Tips: https://www.quickanddirtytips.com/education/history/who-was-william-dudley-pelley-and-the-silver-legion Buy the Book: https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781250148957

William Dudley, who will retire soon as New York Fed president, talks about banks' corporate culture, risks to the economy and what advice he would give his successor.

FULL PODCAST: Charleston City Council District 6: Amy Brennan runs against incumbent William Dudley Gregorie

Today I want to focus on incentives, looking at senior management and compensation. I thought about this inter-connectedness of compensation in a compliance program, focusing up the corporate ladder when I read a recent article in the New York Times (NYT) by Gretchen Morgenson, in her Fair Game column, entitled “Ways to Put the Boss’s Skin In the Game”. Her piece dealt with a long-standing question about how to make senior executives more responsible for corporate malfeasance? Her article had some direct application to anti-corruption compliance programs such as those based on the US Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) or UK Bribery Act. Morgenson said the issue was “Whenever a big corporation settles an enforcement matter with prosecutors, penalties levied in the case – and they can be enormous – are usually paid by the company’s shareholders. Yet the people who actually did the deeds or oversaw the operations rarely so much as open their wallets.”  She went on to explain that it is an economic phenomenon called “perverse incentive” which is one where “corporate executives are encouraged to take outsized risks because they can earn princely amounts from their actions. At the same time, they know that they rarely have to pay any fines or face other costly consequences from their actions.” To help remedy this situation, the idea has come to the fore about senior managers putting some ‘skin in the game’. Her article discussed three different sources for this initiative.  The first was a proxy proposal in front of Citigroup shareholders which “would require that top executives at the company contribute a substantial portion of their compensation each year to a pool of money that would be available to pay penalties if legal violations were uncovered at the bank.” Further, “To ensure that the money would be available for a long enough period – investigations into wrongdoing take years to develop  -  the proposal would require that the executives keep their pay in the pool for 10 years.”  The second came from William Dudley, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, who made a similar suggestion. His proscription involved a performance bond for the actions of bank executives. Morgenson quoted Dudley from his speech, “In the case of a large fine, the senior management and material risk takes would forfeit their performance bond. Not only would this deferred debt compensation discipline individual behavior and decision-making, but it would provide strong incentives for individuals to flag issues when problems develop.”  Morgenson reported on a third approach which was delineated in an article in the Michigan State Journal of Business and Securities Law by Greg Zipes, “a trial lawyer for the Office of the United States Trustee, the nation’s watchdog over the bankruptcy system, who also teaches at the New York University School for Professional Studies.” The article is entitled, “Ties that Bind: Codes of Conduct That Require Automatic Reductions to the Pay of Directors, Officers and Their Advisors for Failures of Corporate Governance”. Zipes proposal is to create a “contract to be signed by a company’s top executives that could be enforced after a significant corporate governance failure. Executives would agree to pay back 25 percent of their gross compensation for the three years before the beginning of improprieties. The agreement would be in effect whether or not the executives knew about the misdeeds inside their company.”  As you might guess, corporate leaders are somewhat less than thrilled at the prospect of being held accountable. Zipes was cited for the following, “Corporate executives are unlikely to sign such codes of conduct of their own volition.” Indeed Citibank went so far as to petition the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) “for permission to exclude the policy from its 2015 shareholder proxy.” But the SEC declined to do and at least Citibank shareholders will have the chance to vote on the proposal.   In the compliance context, these types of proposals are exactly the type of response that a company or its Board of Directors should want to put in place. Moreover, they all have the benefit of a business solution to a legal problem. In an interview for her piece, Morgenson quoted Zipes as noting, “This idea doesn’t require regulation and its doesn’t require new laws. Executives can sign the binding code of conduct or not, but the idea is that the marketplace would reward those who do.” For those who might argue that senior executives can not or should not be responsible for the nefarious actions of other; they readily take credit for “positive corporate activities in which they had little role or knew nothing about.” Moreover, under Sarbanes-Oxley (SOX), corporate executives must make certain certifications about financial statement and reporting so there is currently some obligations along these lines.  Finally, perhaps shareholders will simply become tired of senior executives claiming they could not know what was happening in their businesses; have their fill of hearing about some rogue employee(s) who went off the rails by engaging in bribery and corruption to obtain or retain business; and not accept that leaders should not be held responsible.  Three Key Takeaways Perverse incentives are named that for a reason, they really are bad. How can you create positive incentives in your organization? There is a business response to the legal issue. Employ it.  This month’s series is sponsored by Advanced Compliance Solutions and its new service offering the “Compliance Alliance” which is a three-step program that will provide you and your team a background into compliance and the FCPA so you can consider how your product or service fits into the needs of a compliance officer. It includes a FCPA and compliance boot camp, sponsorship of a one-month podcast series, and in-person training. Each section builds on the other and provides your customer service and sales teams with the knowledge they need to have intelligent conversations with compliance officers and decision makers. When the program is complete, your teams will be armed with the knowledge they need to sell and service every new client. Interested parties should contact Tom Fox. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode you will learn about: The history of how the FED makes interest rates decision Where the FED is making mistakes by ignoring credit growthWhat the FED will do in DEC 2016World taxation and how it could happenWhat Ben Bernanke and William Dudley personally told Jim about raising rates Click here to get full access to our show notes.

 The Dow  Jones ended another down week on a down note, dropping 390 points The NASDAQ was down 126 points  This is the worst January in the history of the stock market the Dow is off about 13% from its highs, the NASDAQ about 15%, firmly in correction territory We are probably in a bear market right now, because ultimately these indexes will be down 20% Some indexes are already firmly in the bear camp; the transportation average is down about 27.5%; the Russel 2000 is down aboutr 23% Many sectors are in a bear market - the auto market, retailers, financials Home builders not quite in bear market territory yet but they are at 4-year lows Beneath the sectors there are many individual stocks that are down 30 - 80% - GoPro now down 82% from last year as a highly touted IPO Yesterday we had about a 200 point rally because the Fed's Dudley, who saved the market in October of 2014 by hinting of QE4 causing the market to take off This time, Bullard came out and did say something dovish, but not dovish enough, and did not want to say  there was something wrong with the economy, so he simply stated that oil prices were too low and inflation might not rise quickly enough, so the Fed should hike more slowly Today, another Fed governor came out, William Dudley and contradicted Bullard, strongly optimistic, saying the market is going to grow above trend in 2016 and he said that some of the negative economic data that has come out recently (which may qualify as the understatement of the decade) should be ignored, in the context of a strong labor market In other words, no matter what other negative data is out there, in the markets or in the economy, as long as we're still creating 200,000-300,000 mostly low-paying, part time jobs monthly, everything is fine If everything is fine, and there are so many people with jobs, why are retail sales plunging?  Why are corporate earnings plunging? Assuming all these jobs really exist, they won't for long because if sales and earnings are collapsing, what are companies going to do with their work force? Walmart announced today they are closing about 150 stores in the U.S., laying off about 10,000 people I have saying for a while I expected retailers to announce significant layoffs, but I think it is going to be across the board Everything that was built on the Fed's bubble is imploding; all the phony wealth that was the result of QE is disappearing rapidly It's amazing that the Federal Reserve believes in the wealth effect on the way up, but somehow it is oblivious to it on the way down I think it is going to work even stronger in reverse; the amount of spending from cut backs will produce a reverse effect even larger than the one they tried to create with QE and zero percent interest rates How could Bullard, in the face of all this negative economic data say that since the Fed raised rates, his outlook on the economy has not diminished at all? It's so ridiculous that he must not believe it - he is trying to pretend that everything is good The whole rate hike was about instilling confidence Based on the data, they should not have hiked rates Now, as the markets are imploding and the data is getting worse, Dudley is out there saying everything is great How much longer can he get away with saying that? Pretty soon, he is not going to have that much credibility That's what is going on with the Fed, in fact JP Morgan today pushed back their estimate for the first rate hike in 2016 from March to June That's how is started last year; everybody was looking for a rate hike, in March, then June then September, then they finally got it in December and now people are already dialing back estimates of the next rate hike The next one ain't happening because we are already in a recession I am talking about a statistical recession that the government will have to acknowledge I think we have been in a recession throughout the entire recovery

Prior to gaining power in Europe, both Hitler with his brownshirts and Mussolini with his blackshirts set the stage for gaining power as fascists in Germany and Italy. Other fascist movements arose at that same time in different parts of the world, such as under Franco in Spain and Oswald Mosley in Britain. But did […]

Rev. William Dudley preaches at RTS Charlotte from Matthew 9 on the conversion of Matthew the Tax Collector.

Why I would get a loan from a mortgage broker and not a bank.  Buyers should beware using a seller's agent.  What happened to mortgage rates this week.  Housing Boom in Phoenix causing a new housing bubble?  Fraud Scheme targeting distressed homeowners.  William Dudley 'getting more hopeful' on US economic recovery.  CFPB finalizes "Know Before You Owe" mortgage forms.  We will discuss the changes.