Podcasts about housing boom

Send us a text01:46 – Louis Christopher's Housing Boom & Bust Report 2025 02:33 – House price predictions for 2025 across Australia07:00 – Why Melbourne has become a buyer's market with an increase in distressed selling12:15 – Why Louis is optimistic about Brisbane16:25 – How the population decline in Hobart is affecting housing prices19:05 – Interest rates, Migration, and Over Population22:11 – How do you select the best agent?30:16 – There are more ‘sold priors' than ‘sold under the hammer' in Sydney 31:08 – What are the best buys?32:08 – How do you calculate the ‘Real Interest Rate”?LOUIS CHRISTOPHER is the Founder and Managing Director of SQM Research and one of Australia's most recognised and respected property analysts. Known for his accurate forecasts and in-depth market knowledge, Louis provides invaluable insights into the Australian property market to help you make your next move!This episode is sponsored by Local Agent Finder 

What’s Trending: The Second Amendment Foundation is considering filing a lawsuit against the Washington State Patrol for delaying background checks for firearms. A restaurant in Crown Hill was burglarized. Democrats are still freaking out over the Pete Hegseth nomination. Guest: President of Ridgeline Research Tom Carter discusses some of the recent trends in the stock market and the economic outlook of the Trump presidency. // Big Local: A man in Tumwater was killed by a driver that ran through a traffic stop while being pursued by police. There’s a housing boom in Marsyville as people try to get away from King County prices. A new report found some questionable hiring practices in Snohomish County. // Actress Rachel Zegler issued a half-hearted apology after bashing Trump supporters. The ladies of The View weren’t’ thrilled with New York Mayor Eric Adams’ assessment of why Democrats lost in 2024. Whoopi Goldberg claimed that a bakery almost didn’t serve her over her politics.  

A Clare Architect claims introducing artificial intelligence to the planning system and imposing strict conditions on all state contractors is the only way to catch up with gaping housing, health, electricity and transport deficits. A new report published today by the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council has found Ireland may need as many as 80,000 construction workers over the next decade to meet demand but that only 20,000 will be required with improved productivity. IFAC also determined the country is lagging behind European counterparts, by not embracing modern building methods such as modular housing, and that uncertainy around planning is leading to delays and increased project costs. Ogonelloe Architect and Lecturer at the Department of Architecture at the South East Technological University Garry Miley has been telling Clare FM's Daragh Dolan that a housing boom is very possible with the right approach.

Welcome to the Real Estate Rundown! Kala and the guys talk about how the low turnover rate, could lead to a big surge in the market. Additionally, they discuss how Hurricane Helene is causing some peculiar offers. 

Send us a textHome Prices Are Already Rising. Housing Boom Or Bust? You Tell Me!

Welcome back to America's #1 Daily Podcast,  featuring America's #1 Real Estate Coaches and Top EXP Realty Sponsors in the World, Tim and Julie Harris. Ready to become an EXP Realty Agent and join Tim and Julie Harris?  Visit: https://whylibertas.com/harris or text Tim directly at 512-758-0206. IMPORTANT: Join #1 Real Estate Coaches Tim and Julie Harris's Premier Coaching now for FREE. Included is a DAILY Coaching Session with a HARRIS Certified Coach. Proven and tested lead generation, systems, and scripts designed for this market. Instant FREE Access Now: YES, Enroll Me NOW In Premier Coaching https://premiercoaching.com Real estate agents, it's time to look ahead with optimism! After a few tough years in the housing market, things are about to turn around in a big way. Experts are predicting a surge in housing activity starting in 2025, and that's something we can all get excited about.  Whether it's falling interest rates, favorable demographic shifts, or an increase in new construction, the future of the housing market looks bright. Let's break down what's coming and why now is the time to prepare for the opportunities ahead. 1. Interest Rates Could Drop Below 5%—Get Ready for More Buyers Interest rates have hovered around 6% recently, but let's not forget how high rates were back in the 1980s—above 15%! Even though rates are higher than the ultra-low pandemic levels, they're still historically low, and many buyers are eager to jump in. And here's the kicker: the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) predicts that rates could dip below 5% by 2025. What does that mean? Simple—more affordability equals more buyers. If rates drop as predicted, home sales could rise by as much as 5-12%. That's anywhere between 200,000 and 480,000 additional sales a year. The message for agents is clear: prepare for a busier market with plenty of motivated buyers looking for their next home. HUGE Announcement: You will love this! Looking for the full outline from today's presentation? Our DAILY Newsletter featured lead generation systems, real estate scripts, daily success plans and (YES) the notes or today's show. Best part? The newsletter is free! https://harrisrealestatedaily.com/

This Friday, light rail will finally get all the way up to Lynnwood, with stops in Shoreline and Mountlake Terrace along the way. We talk with Seattle Times transportation reporter Nick Deshais about how this latest light rail expansion has created a housing boom. More information on the limited-time Orca daypass discount We can only make Seattle Now because listeners support us. You have the power! Make the show happen by making a gift to KUOW: https://www.kuow.org/donate/seattlenow And we want to hear from you! Follow us on Instagram at SeattleNowPod, or leave us feedback online: https://www.kuow.org/feedback See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This Flashback Friday is from episode 117 published last September 1, 2009.  "For far too long, too many people have regarded home ownership as 'a good thing.' It is certainly true that home ownership has its benefits. But, like everything else, it also has its costs and its risks." This statement by Creating Wealth Show guest, American economist Thomas Sowell has been regretfully muttered by many homeowners.     Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/ Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/ Free Class:  Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://JasonHartman.com/Ron Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com

Podcast Episode 158: The Craziest month in US Presidential history In this episode today, Rohan and David discussed the following: 1. Impact of Recent Events on the Presidential Campaigns: They discuss the fallout and implications of President Biden withdrawing from the presidential race, and the potential implications for Vice President Kamala Harris as the frontrunner. 2. Tech Disruption: Microsoft Outage and Cybersecurity Implications: They explore the causes and consequences of the recent Microsoft update that caused major disruptions, including cybersecurity concerns and its broader impact. 3. Real Estate Trends: Austin's Housing Boom and Market Dynamics: Rohan and David analyze the unprecedented influx of apartment units in Austin, Texas, and its impact on rental prices, housing market saturation, and investor strategies. 4.Investment Trends: Blackstone's AI Infrastructure Initiative: They discuss Blackstone's strategy to become a leader in AI infrastructure investments, including data centers and renewable energy, and its implications for the real estate and tech sectors. 5. Future of AI in Consumer Behavior and Industries: Following the above they also discuss the transformative potential of AI, focusing on autonomous driving technology, drone deliveries, and their expected impact on consumer behavior and industry landscapes. 6. Financial Stability and Banking Liquidity: They now explore the liquidity risks highlighted by the high ratio of uninsured deposits in major banks like JP Morgan Chase and Bank of New York Mellon, and their potential implications for financial stability. 7. Urban Real Estate Market Insights: David and Rohan analyze the most expensive cities to buy homes in the U.S. for 2024, including San Francisco, New York City, and other major metropolitan areas, discussing trends, affordability challenges, and investment opportunities. 8. Impact of COVID-19 on Real Estate: They discuss how the pandemic has affected real estate prices and market dynamics, with a specific focus on urban centers like New York City and Los Angeles versus suburban and rural areas. 9. Property Development: Exploring the challenges and opportunities in large-scale property development projects, using examples like the Oceanwide Project in downtown LA as a case study. Fun stuff and reviews: Entertainment and Media Reviews: Reviewing recent movies like "The Beekeeper" and TV series like "Horizon" or other media consumed by the hosts, discussing their plot twists, themes, and entertainment value. (27:48) Restaurant and Food Reviews: Sharing experiences and recommendations from dining in various cultural districts like Koreatown, focusing on the atmosphere, cuisine, and overall dining experience. (30:09) Book Recommendations: Discussing books related to finance, Wall Street culture, or any other genres that the hosts have recently read, such as "Straight to Hell" by John. (35:16)

In today's episode, Kip breaks down the vibrant landscape of this current bull market, and where to look for buying the dip. He also covers the latest in the housing market as we are seeing demand driven by millennials with an entrepreneurial spirit. Lastly, diversification remains key, with personal insights into our VRA portfolio strategy. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.

On this last episode in this series, our co-hosts Hanan Ali and Natasha Mhuriro talked to four guests. Djaka Blais, Executive Director of Hogan's Alley Society; Robert Byers, President & C-E-O of Namerind Housing Corporation; Joshua Evans, Associate Professor at the University of Alberta. and Franz Bernhardt, Postdoctoral Researcher at Aalborg University, Denmark. We spend time thinking about and imagining alternative models of community housing. How could or should Canada's community housing sector look differently in the future? What are some good examples of innovative housing projects and practices from across the country – and around the world? What lessons can we learn? The production of the podcast series is led by Dr. Yushu Zhu and Dr. Meg Holden at Simon Fraser University as part of the Community Housing Canada project and the Housing Inequality in Canada project, in partnership with IRPP. Student researchers include Hanan Ali, Natasha Mhuriro, Pok Man Tong, and Khoa Vo. This podcast has been a dedicated collaboration, with production assistance by Ricardo Montrose, Cléa Desjardins and Luc Moulaison at IRPP, and audio producer Jackie G. Karen Sawatzky contributes to script editing for this episode. If you like what you heard and you want to know more about the Institute for Research on Public Policy, head over to https://irpp.org/. Additional resources: Hogen's Alley Society - A Black-led non-profit organization dedicated to advancing the social, political, economic, and cultural well-being of people of African descent in Metro Vancouver. Namerind Housing Corporation - An Indigenous-led housing provider and social enterprise. Aboriginal Housing Management Association (AHMA) - An umbrella organization composed of 41 Members that are each Indigenous Housing providers. The first Indigenous Housing Authority in Canada and only the second in the world. Ontario Aboriginal Housing Services - A non-profit housing provider with a focus on the Indigenous community. Housing Boom in Gateway Cities – Book written by David Ley, 2023. Utilising a comparative approach in five gateway cities, the author provides an understanding of the politics of booms, lifting the debate beyond narrow housing and real estate studies. Policy fact sheet: National Building Fund, Denmark. European Construction Sector Observatory. 2019. The resilience of social rental housing in the United Kingdom, Sweden and Denmark: How institutions matter. Timothy Blackwell & Bo Bengtsson. Housing Studies. 2023. 38:2, 269-289.

London is brimming with capital waiting to be invested in housing, facing a millionaire exodus, and undergoing significant changes in the rental market. Key insights cover Melanie Leech's vision for unlocking capital, Labour's private school tax raid, non-traditional PCL areas, voluntary rent increases, and mortgage rate cuts. Melanie Leech, Chief Executive of the British Property Federation (BPF), envisions a new housing boom in London, akin to past transformative periods. Since the 1980s, London's population has grown by almost half, yet housing supply has lagged, contributing to high rents and declining home ownership. The BPF's manifesto, "Building our Future," calls for critical changes to the planning system, aiming to provide homes for diverse demographics and budgets. To expedite development, more planners are needed. Political parties are committing to providing more resources, and BPF members are willing to pay higher planning fees for faster, more effective systems. With significant capital available, smart investment can unlock more build-to-rent (BtR) properties, housing for older people, student housing, and social housing. BtR properties offer long-term leases, predictable rental increases, and well-maintained facilities, providing greater security and quality for tenants. With the right policies, the BPF predicts that BtR output could double to 30,000 homes annually across the UK. Investing in purpose-built student accommodation (PBSA) is essential, enhancing the student experience and alleviating pressure on the wider rental market. Private sector capital is increasingly invested in social housing, with partnerships between not-for-profit and for-profit sectors emerging to boost supply. The BPF's manifesto offers the next government an opportunity to unlock investment, power London's economy, and maintain its global status. For property investors, non-traditional prime central London (PCL) areas like Camden, Notting Hill, Shoreditch, and South Bank are becoming attractive. These areas have experienced significant urban regeneration, boosting desirability and property availability. Young, affluent buyers are drawn to these neighborhoods for their cultural, culinary, and entertainment options, alongside potential for strong investment returns. Notting Hill, with its colorful houses and famous market, has seen property values increase by 101% over the past decade. Shoreditch has undergone major transformation, with significant price rises and a growing number of high-value properties. Camden and Kentish Town have seen substantial rental price growth, making them attractive for investors seeking higher returns. Labour's plans to address the rental market include preventing landlords from creating bidding wars, though renters can still "voluntarily" offer higher prices. Inspired by New Zealand's policies, Labour aims to ensure advertised rental prices match final charges, limiting competitive bidding. Critics argue this creates a loophole, as competitive bidding environments persist due to supply shortages. Labour also proposes limiting the amount of rent tenants can pay upfront. Scotland's government has implemented rent rise limits and eviction moratoriums, offering a model for tenant protection. With Labour leading in polls, their plans could significantly impact the rental market. In mortgage news, NatWest has reduced fixed-rate mortgage costs ahead of a potential Bank of England rate cut in August. The bank's five-year fixed rates for remortgage now start from 4.26% with a £1,495 fee. Virgin Money and Suffolk Building Society have also adjusted rates, offering various reductions for residential Maximize your property wealth with London Property. Turn challenges into opportunities. With expert knowledge and reach, we tackle the complexities and inefficiencies of the property market with you.

Wondering how the 2024 property forecasts are stacking up so far? Tune in to our mid-year review as we dive into the real estate predictions that nailed it and the ones that missed the mark. In this episode, we dissect the key trends, market shifts, and unexpected twists that have shaped the housing landscape in the first half of the year. Today, we have Louis Christopher with us again to share his insights from the much-anticipated “Boom or Bust” report. Louis has a knack for making accurate predictions, but he's also refreshingly honest about where he's gone astray. We explore his methodology and the factors he weighs when making his forecasts. This episode is a must for anyone keen on understanding property market predictions and figuring out which ones to trust. We also peek into what the rest of the year might hold, including potential surprises and how elements like inflation and geopolitical tensions could sway the market. Tune in to get a better grasp of the 2024 property market trends 'cause whether you're buying, selling, or investing, this episode offers vital insights into the current property market dynamics and what to keep an eye on in the months ahead. Episode Highlights: 00:00 - Introduction 01:01 - Who is Louis Christopher? 01:43 - Discussion on the national market performance and overall trends observed in 2024 03:07 - Analysis of the market slowdown and how it compares to previous years 07:32 - Why the lack of major surprises in the property market despite economic uncertainties 12:15 - Discussion on Perth's growth trajectory and contributing factors 16:53 - Projected rise of unemployment in Perth and its potential effects on property prices 19:00 - Brisbane's growth and how it compares to other major cities 22:16 - How the number of property listings in Brisbane has changed over recent years 28:43 - Trend of declining property listings and transaction volumes in various locations 30:35 - The influence of stamp duty on property prices and market activity 35:08 - Louis' analysis on the Australian Capital Territory 37:00 - The potential impact of upcoming elections on housing market forecasts 41:13 - The importance of creating scenarios to anticipate future developments in real estate 42:27 - How does media coverage influence public perception of real estate forecasts? 47:27 - Louis Christopher's property dumbo About Our Guest: Louis Christopher established SQM Research in 2006. He was Head of Research and General Manager of the property statistics agency, Australian Property Monitors (APM) for six years. During his time at APM, Louis constructed key residential property market indexes published by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Prior to APM Louis spent three years at the Securities Institute of Australia as a Technical Editor. Louis previously spent 18 months at MLC working in the investment services. He is widely respected for the quality and accuracy of his market outlooks, ratings philosophy and forecasts for the Australian residential property market. Connect with Louis Christopher: Connect with Louis on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/louischristopher/ Visit SQM's website: https://sqmresearch.com.au/ Connect with Louis on X: https://x.com/LouiChristopher Resources mentioned in this episode: Download Louis Christopher's 2024 Housing Boom and Bust Report here: https://sqmresearch.com.au/boombustreport.php Resources: Visit our website https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.au If you have any questions or would like to be featured on our show, contact us at: The Elephant in the Room Property Podcast questions@theelephantintheroom.com.au Looking for a Sydney Buyers Agent? https://www.gooddeeds.com.au Work with Veronica: https://www.veronicamorgan.com.au Looking for a Mortgage Broker? https://www.blusk.au Work with Chris: hello@blusk.au Enjoyed the podcast? Don't miss out on what's yet to come! Hit that subscription button, spread the word and join us for more insightful discussions in real estate. Your journey starts now! Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@theelephantintheroom-podcast Subscribe on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/ph/podcast/the-elephant-in-the-room-property-podcast/id1384822719 Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Ge1626dgnmK0RyKPcXjP0?si=26cde394fa854765 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Time for a Friday Flight- our little sampling of the week's financial news and what it means for your personal finances. There are a lot of headlines out there, but we boil them down to specific takeaways that will allow you to kick off the weekend informed and help you to get ahead with your money. In this episode we explain some relevant and helpful stories like: banks for rednecks, more debt less fun, cruisers standby, frictionless payments, echo housing boom, phantom housing costs, baked rates, turning down a promotion, lotto lies, false jackpots, money dysmorphia, you need less to retire than you think, & advice only advisors.   Want more How To Money in your life? Here are some additional ways to get ahead with your personal finances: Knowing your ‘money gear' is a crucial part of your personal finance journey. Start here.  Sign up for the weekly HTM newsletter. It's fun, free, & practical. Join a thriving community of fellow money in the HTM Facebook group. Find the best credit card for you with our new credit card tool! Massively reduce your cell phone bill each month by switching to a discount provider like Mint Mobile.   And please help us to spread the word by letting friends and family know about How to Money! Hit the share button, subscribe if you're not already a regular listener, and give us a quick review in Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Help us to change the conversation around personal finance and get more people doing smart things with their money. Have an awesome weekend!   Best friends out!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With a quarter of 2024 already behind us, it's time to take stock. Are you on track with your goals, or do you need to make adjustments? Whether you're on track, ahead, or behind, here are nine reasons to feel excited, motivated, and ready to conquer the rest of the year. Get ready—it could be your best year yet! Welcome back to America's #1 Daily Podcast,  featuring America's #1 Real Estate Coaches and Top EXP Realty Sponsors in the World, Tim and Julie Harris. Ready to become an EXP Realty Agent and join Tim and Julie Harris?  Visit: https://whylibertas.com/harris or text Tim directly at 512-758-0206. IMPORTANT: Join #1 Real Estate Coaches Tim and Julie Harris's Premier Coaching now for FREE. Included is a DAILY Coaching Session with a HARRIS Certified Coach. Proven and tested lead generation, systems, and scripts designed for this market. Instant FREE Access Now: YES, Enroll Me NOW In Premier Coaching https://premiercoaching.com 1. Home Sales Are UP! February brought a pleasant surprise in the real estate market as existing home sales surged by 9.5% month-over-month to reach a seasonally-adjusted, annualized rate of 4.4 million units. This remarkable uptick marks the highest level recorded since March 2023. HUGE Announcement: You will love this! Looking for the full outline from today's presentation? Our DAILY Newsletter featured lead generation systems, real estate scripts, daily success plans and (YES) the notes or today's show. Best part? The newsletter is free! https://harrisrealestatedaily.com/ 2. Prices are UP! Alongside the increase in sales, the median sales price also saw a notable rise, climbing by 1.4% month-over-month and 5.8% year-over-year to reach $384,500. These figures, released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), indicate a robust and dynamic housing market, reflecting increased demand and rising home values." 3. National inventory levels are on the rise. Based on data from Realtor.com's residential listing database, active inventory in March 2024 increased by 4.5% month-over-month (MoM) to reach 695,000 units—an impressive 23.5% surge year-over-year (YoY)! REAL ESTATE LEADS, LEADS and more LEADS: Question: What is Tim and Julie Harris's favorite PROBATE LEAD PROVIDER? Simple, alltheleads.com/harris Additionally, new listings saw a substantial uptick, jumping by 16.6% Month over Month and showing a notable 15.5% year-over-year increase. This surge in available properties indicates a trend towards more opportunities for potential buyers, potentially leading to increased property sales. 4. Cash Deals. According to data from the Realtors Confidence Index, the real estate market witnessed fierce competition and a surge in cash transactions in February. A remarkable 56% of homes sold during the month were on the market for less than a month, up from 53% in January. Furthermore, 20% of homes were sold for more than their listing price, marking a notable rise from 16% in the previous month. Perhaps most strikingly, a staggering 33% of transactions were completed entirely in cash. These statistics, provided by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), underscore the intense competition and prevalence of cash offers in today's housing market." 5. No Crashing Prices. Price growth has taken an unexpected turn. After experiencing slight decreases of 0.1% month-over-month (MoM) for two consecutive months, CoreLogic's national Home Price Index surged by 0.7% MoM in February, exceeding its initial projections significantly. Previously, CoreLogic had anticipated 2.5% price growth over the next 12 months, but its latest forecast now predicts a more robust 3.1% increase. Time to get to work! Are you on track, ahead, or behind with 25% of 2024 behind you? If you're in momentum, join Premier Coaching to stay in momentum. If you're off track or unsure of your future this year, join Premier Coaching!

Taking a step away from the drama, speculation, and panic caused by the NAR Commission Lawsuit Settlement, let's reset everyone's mindset. Today, we're talking about 8 reasons to be optimistic.   Welcome back to America's #1 Daily Podcast,  featuring America's #1 Real Estate Coaches and Top EXP Realty Sponsors in the World, Tim and Julie Harris. Ready to become an EXP Realty Agent and join Tim and Julie Harris?  Visit: https://whylibertas.com/harris or text Tim directly at 512-758-0206  IMPORTANT: Join #1 Real Estate Coaches Tim and Julie Harris's Premier Coaching now for FREE. Included is a DAILY Coaching Session with a HARRIS Certified Coach. Proven and tested lead generation, systems, and scripts designed for this market. Instant FREE Access Now: YES, Enroll Me NOW In Premier Coaching https://premiercoaching.com We'll return to upgrading your buyer skills this week; don't worry!  The fact is that even after upgrading your best buyer practices, embracing, learning, and using your Buyer Presentation if you don't have a powerful mindset, you'll be unlikely to use your new skills at the level necessary to thrive in the new real estate world.  HUGE Announcement: You will love this! Looking for the full outline from today's presentation? Our DAILY Newsletter featured lead generation systems, real estate scripts, daily success plans and (YES) the notes or today's show. Best part? The newsletter is free! https://harrisrealestatedaily.com/  Let's dive into 8 reasons to look forward to a fantastic year ahead. 1.  Inventory is back and rising steadily! This is the most exciting news this month—it's what we've all been waiting for. NAR head economist Lawrence Yun said, "Additional housing supply is helping to satisfy market demand. Housing demand has steadily risen due to population and job growth, though prevailing mortgage rates and wider inventory choices will determine the actual timing of purchases." Ready to become an EXPIRED Listing Agent? As promised, here is the discount link for the EXPIRED LISTING LEADS: https://www.redx.com/affiliate/tim-and-julie-harris/ *Rising demand and lower rates should fuel a better year for sales! For the week ending March 15th, there were 507,000 single-family homes on the market. That's up 1.3% from the previous week, 24% year over year, and an amazing 105% from two years ago. That's from Altos Research, which tracks every sale in the country every week.   REAL ESTATE LEADS, LEADS and more LEADS: Question: What is Tim and Julie Harris's favorite PROBATE LEAD PROVIDER? Simple, alltheleads.com/harris   Inventory is growing nationwide and has been consistently increasing each week.  These numbers don't even include all the new construction!  That's our next point... 2.  Builders are officially bullish. The National Association of Homebuilders has published its “builder's confidence” index for 35 years. In March 2024, the index rose 3 points to 51. Anything greater than 50 is considered bullish.  What goes into the index? It has three components: current conditions, future conditions, and buyer traffic. They report that all three components are coming in high. For comparison, their builder confidence index was 44 this time last year.  In January, housing starts rebounded 11% Month over Month to 1.5 million units. February was up 6% year over year. Completions jumped to 1.7 million units, up 20% Month over Month and 10% Year over Year. That's the fastest pace of completion seen since January 2007! While some of those starts are multifamily, the majority are single-family homes.   Homework: Take a tour of all the available new construction in the zip codes you typically work in, plus a 10-mile radius.  Refer to our podcasts about new construction.  More than 30% of the available inventory is new construction. 3.  Rates WILL come down this year.  Rates are currently just under 7%, which is already an improvement from the beginning of the year.  We see that in mortgage applications being up.

On this episode of Inside the Firm, U.S. home sales miss expectations but inflation keeps on rescinding, and Colorado is doing what with ADUs?! Join us as we go back Inside the Firm!

In this episode, we look at the recent economic boom and its transforming impact on real estate, particularly emphasising the booming developments in Kingston and Negril. Discover insights from prominent realtors and better understand the rise in luxury housing and significant worries regarding typical Jamaican affordability. Link to the Short referenced My Contact Info YouTube https://www.youtube.com/Throp/ Instagram https://www.instagram.com/throp/ Facebook https://www.facebook.com/throplife Twitter https://twitter.com/throplife​ Patreon https://www.patreon.com/throp

Hundreds of apartments are being built on Front Street in the Fishtown and Kensington neighborhoods. This housing boom is all happening near the noisy Market-Frankford train line, which has experienced a sharp decline in riders since the pandemic. Host Trenae Nuri chats with Jake Blumgart, real estate reporter at The Philadelphia Inquirer, about what's attracting developers to these neighborhoods and whether these new apartments could attract more Philadelphians back on SEPTA. Read Jake's full story here.  Want some more Philly news? Then make sure to sign up for our morning newsletter Hey Philly. We're also on Twitter and Instagram! Follow us @citycastphilly. Have a question or just want to share some thoughts with the team? Leave us a voicemail or send us a text at 215-259-8170. Interested in advertising with City Cast? Find more info here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Today, we review what property prices did in 2023, and what factors are shaping the Australian property market for 2024. I also discuss some key announcements from the 2023-2024 Budget regarding healthcare, and discuss trends with General Practice, healthcare spending, and private health insurance.Thanks to your support for 2023, wishing everyone well in their endeavours into 2024.Resources:Will house prices go up in 2023? The answer largely depends on interest rates - ABC News20.11.23 Housing Boom and Bust report 2024.pdf (sqmresearch.com.au)RACGP - Government's key Medicare Budget measures kick inMusic Credit: Bass Nation.Send in your questions to: passiveincomedoctors[AT]gmail.com

We're at the time of year again when everyone is wondering what's in store for property in the year ahead, particularly in light of another incredible year that's continued to defy most expectations. So Bushy and Kevin are delighted that Louis Christopher joins them in this week's show to go into some detail from his Christopher's Housing Boom and Bust Report from SQM Research.  We talk to the new President of the Real Estate Buyers Association, Melinda Jennison,  about low barriers to entry into the industry. NEW – join our Facebook group, The Property Hub Collective: https://www.facebook.com/groups/1857513011165686 Join the Property Hub community on Substack! Sign up to get Australian property news, opinion, and episodes in your inbox: https://propertyhubau.substack.com/ Subscribe to RealtyTalk on the Property Hub channel: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Email Property Hub is a collaboration between Bushy Martin from KnowHow Property, Kevin Turner from Realty, Andrew Montesi from Apiro Marketing and Apiro Media, and Australia's largest independent podcast network DM Media. Business and partnership enquiries: antony@dm.org.auSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ivy Zelman, founder and CEO of Zelman & Associates, joins Forward Guidance to share her outlook on the U.S. housing market. Filmed on August 8, 2023. Today's interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm. ____ To learn more about Zelman & Associates, email ted@zelmanassociates.com Follow Ivy Zelman on Twitter https://twitter.com/Ivy_Zelman Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Zelman & Associates 2023 Virtual Housing Summit: Our 16th Annual Housing Summit continues to provide rich market content, lively panel discussions and fresh perspectives on the housing ecosystem that is unique to Zelman & Associates. Our panel discussions have C-Suite executives moderated by our elite team. We break down content, providing you with actionable insights that will help navigate the current market uncertainty and on into 2024. Zelman's ultimate goal (as always) was to provide you with the most accurate, in-depth and differentiated data and information to help you be successful in your endeavors.   Registration Cost: $850.00 Special Discount: Email Kim Gray – kim@zelmanassociates.com to register and mention this podcast for a 25% discount! Housing Summit Event Page: https://www.meetmax.com/sched/event_96353/conference_home.html?bank_access=0&event_id=96353 Housing Summit Agenda: https://www.meetmax.com/sched/event_96353/__agenda_cp.html Why Attend Our Housing Summit: Deemed The Best Housing-Related Conference of Year  Attended by over 1,000 Institutional Investors and Industry Executives  Thought-Provoking Panels Across The Housing Mosaic  Corporate Access for Investors and Unique Networking Opportunities  A Who's Who of Housing with all of the major public and private prevailing thought leaders in attendance     About Zelman & Associates: Extensive macro, sector and company-specific equity research, exclusive industry surveys, stock recommendations, and insights leveraging our constant flow of real-time data. Our insights help connect the dots between all aspects of the housing mosaic to inform strategies and decisions rooted in confidence. Serving institutional investors, corporations, private equity, fixed income, private investors, RIAs and more. https://www.zelmanassociates.com/ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:28) Resilience Of The U.S. Housing Market (09:28) Comparing the 2020 Housing Boom to the Early 2000s Housing Boom (13:43) Commercial Real Estate: Multifamily Housing (Apartment Buildings) (20:58) Shelter's Contribution To Overall Consumer Price Inflation (22:35) Housing's Impact On Banking System (25:53) Forecasts For Single-Family Housing (32:20) Supply of Housing (38:53) Outlook on Homebuilding Industry (43:42) Negative Outlook On Home Improvement Industry (48:22) Market For Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) (51:06) The Fed Was Supporting The Market With Free Money (52:37) Macro Outlook

Mortgage and real estate expert David Hochberg joins Lisa Dent to explain why Illinois hasn’t seen a housing boom since 2006. Also, David discusses how young adults can build their credit if they never had a credit card. David Hochberg hosts Home Sweet Home Chicago, heard Saturdays 10am-1pm on WGN Radio. Follow The Lisa Dent Show […]

Bloomberg News Technology Reporter Matt Day and Bloomberg Businessweek Technology Editor Joshua Brustein talk about Amazon in talks to join other tech companies as an anchor investor in Arm Ltd.'s initial public offering. Bloomberg News Real Economy Team Reporter Mark Niquette shares the details of his story First US City to Tame Inflation Owes Its Success to Housing Boom. Bloomberg Intelligence Technology and Media Analyst Geetha Ranganathan discusses Disney raising the prices of its streaming services, including a 27% increase for the advertising-free version of the flagship Disney+. And we Drive to the Close with Paul Christopher, Head of Global Investment Strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. Hosts: Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec. Producer: Paul Brennan. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Crain's residential real estate reporter Dennis Rodkin talks with host Amy Guth about news of the week from the local housing market, including the rise of downtown's super-luxury apartment market and how, unlike other cities, Chicago is safe from running out of home inventory. Plus: Wilmette officials unanimously oppose Northwestern's Ryan Field proposal, Rivian's software chief vows big upgrades in surprise visit on earnings call, O'Hare still hasn't clawed its way back in passenger traffic rankings and a data breach hits Lurie Children's Hospital patients.

Some of the new housing is coming from converting office towers to residences now that many people work from home.

Some of the new housing is coming from converting office towers to residences now that many people work from home.

Some of the new housing is coming from converting office towers to residences now that many people work from home.

Some of the new housing is coming from converting office towers to residences now that many people work from home.

Like the USA, Canada has had a central bank–fueled housing boom. Like all other booms, it also has an inevitable ending. Original Article: "Canada's Housing Boom Was a Bubble. Now Comes the Bust"

Like the USA, Canada has had a central bank–fueled housing boom. Like all other booms, it also has an inevitable ending. Original Article: "Canada's Housing Boom Was a Bubble. Now Comes the Bust"

There are early signs that the property market has bottomed, and a number of analysts are calling for prices to start rising as the RBA cuts rates. We compare this to upcoming the mortgage cliff. What happens when an irresistible force meets an immovable object? In this week's webinar, join us as Nucleus Wealth's Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen, Senior Financial Adviser, Samuel Kerr and Chief Economist Leith Van Onselen discuss Leith's recent post "Here comes the house price boom!" against the backdrop of a cooling economy. View the presentation slides Agenda: US Credit Crunch Prices rebounding Interest rates already falling?? Mortgage cliff impact biggest unknown To listen in podcast form click here Get an obligation-free portfolio recommendation to see how we would invest for you Learn more about the hosts Find us on social media: Twitter Instagram Facebook LinkedIn Want to know more? Click here to Subscribe Nucleus Wealth is an Australian Investment & Superannuation fund that can help you reach your financial goals through transparent, low-cost, ethically tailored portfolios. To find out more head to Nucleus Wealth Website. The information on this podcast contains general information and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Damien Klassen is an authorised representative of Nucleus Wealth Management. Nucleus Wealth is a business name of Nucleus Wealth Management Pty Ltd (ABN 54 614 386 266 ) and is a Corporate Authorised Representative of Nucleus Advice Pty Ltd - AFSL 515796

Crain's residential real estate reporter Dennis Rodkin talks with host Amy Guth about news from the local housing market, including a surge in more affordable senior housing developments. Plus: Investors sue Lightfoot administration over scuttled deal next to Michael Reese site, cannabis industry trade orgs plead for SAFE Banking hearing, Elizabeth Warren wants FTC review of CVS-Oak Street Health deal, and proposed legislation aims to alleviate medical debt burden in Illinois.

This housing market is a tough nut to crack. One week, rates are coming back down, buyers are gearing up to re-enter the real estate market, and investors are feeling optimistic. Then, the following week, inflation spikes, mortgage rates jump, and affordability plummets back down to a depressing level. Because of this topsy-turvy economy we find ourselves in, we get a slew of questions on almost every episode asking us to predict what will happen next. And today, the entire On the Market panel has flown out to Denver to get this live debate going. That's right. Dave Meyer is joined by Henry Washington, James Dainard, Jamil Damji, and Kathy Fettke to pop some bottles, rock some chains (thank you, James), and give you up-to-date info on the housing market. We've taken a few of our favorite questions from the comment section and got the panel's opinions on some of today's most pressing topics. First, we'll talk about why new homes are cheaper than existing homes in many markets and whether or not this is a red flag for the housing market. Then, we enter lender territory and discuss which markets are seeing new down payment requirements and which allow you to still score deals at ten to fifteen percent down. We'll also revisit the commercial real estate crash and what could happen once these massive balloon payments come due. But don't worry, there's still some optimism afoot, as a couple of our expert guests predict a housing market boom could be coming in only a matter of months. So, don't get caught in the rocky waves of this real estate market; tune in to get the scoop on everything happening on the market.   In This Episode We Cover The incoming housing market “boom” that could start another buying frenzy New construction vs. existing homes and which is a safer bet as a new investor Down payment requirements and why so many lenders are asking for more  The commercial real estate crash and how it could create insane deals for investors with cash on hand The state of the economy and why there's so much contradictory data pointing in different directions Why you should always buy two plane tickets when planning your next trip And So Much More! Links from the Show Find an Investor-Friendly Real Estate Agent BiggerPockets Forums BiggerPockets Agent BiggerPockets Bootcamps Join BiggerPockets for FREE On The Market Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Connect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” Forums Subscribe to The “On The Market” YouTube Channel Dave's BiggerPockets Profile Dave's Instagram Henry's BiggerPockets Profile Henry's Instagram Jamil's BiggerPockets Profile Jamil's Instagram Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile Kathy's Instagram James' BiggerPockets Profile James' Instagram Attend a BiggerPockets Meetup Grab Dave's “2023 State of Real Estate Investing Report” On the Market Podcast 65 with Ben Miller (Deleveraging) On the Market Podcast 71 with Brian Burke (Multifamily BOMB) Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-85 Interested in learning more about today's sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Check out our sponsor page!

One might assume that new rounds of monetary stimulus will bring new peaks in housing construction, reversing the ongoing housing shortage. That hasn't happened. Original Article: "The Housing Boom Is Already Over. The Housing Shortage Will Continue." This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon.

One might assume that new rounds of monetary stimulus will bring new peaks in housing construction, reversing the ongoing housing shortage. That hasn't happened. Original Article: "The Housing Boom Is Already Over. The Housing Shortage Will Continue." This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon.

Since Hurricane Ian devastated southwestern Florida last month, residents have filed a record number of insurance claims for the damage caused by the storm.Today, Chris Flavelle, a climate reporter for The Times, discusses whether the insurance companies can survive. And if they can't, what will the effect be on Florida's housing market, the cornerstone of its economy?Guest: Christopher Flavelle, a climate reporter for The New York Times.Background reading: The hurricane's record-breaking cost will make it even harder for many to get insurance, experts say — threatening home sales, mortgages and construction.Aerial videos and photos show the destruction caused by Hurricane Ian on Fort Myers Beach, Fla.For more information on today's episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday. 

It looks like the pandemic housing boom is coming to an end. More and more sellers are slashing prices as mortgage rates rise and homes become less affordable for potential buyers. Some analysts are predicting that home values will drop by as much as 20% in markets that have gone up the most. And there are five markets at the top of that list.Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. Real estate experts are calling these overvalued markets “zoom towns” because they experienced rapid price growth during the pandemic. According to Rick Palacios at John Burns Real Estate consulting, home prices in Boise, Idaho, will be the first to get slammed. Palacios says: “It is the single market that we anticipate actually getting to price declines in 2022.” (1)The Rise of Zoom TownsHe says Boise attracted a lot of new residents during the pandemic because of its lower cost of living and quality of life, but that drove prices sky high. The other four cities on his list of zoom towns that will see sharp price corrections are Austin, Texas; Nashville, Tennessee; Phoenix, Arizona; and Sacramento, California.A Redfin analysis shows that Boise home prices increased 60% over the course of the pandemic, and it's now getting hit pretty hard by the market slowdown. Redfin says in July of last year, 30% of the listing prices were cut. That percentage has now more than doubled to 70% in July of this year.Data collected by John Burns shows that month-over-month prices are falling in Boise. It predicts that Boise will be the first metro to show a year-over-year decline in home prices. But Boise isn't alone.Top Metros for Home Price GrowthAs reported by Fortune, the West is the epicenter of the pandemic housing boom, and is now shifting rapidly. In July, 58% of listings in Denver experienced price cuts along with 56% of listings in Salt Lake City, 55% in Tacoma, Washington, 50% in Phoenix and San Diego, and 47% in Stockton, California. And that's just at the top of the list. (2)Zonda's chief economist, Ali Wolf, says: “The strong demand over the past two years drove up home prices across the country, and it appears the West hit the pricing ceiling quicker than other markets given the particular supply constraints.” In other words, a combination of high demand, bidding wars, and tight inventory pushed prices in this area beyond what homebuyers are willing to pay.Forecast on Home Price DeclinesSo the market is cooling the fastest while inventory is rising in what have been pandemic zoom towns. Moody's Analytics is expecting price declines of 0 to 5% during the slowdown. But it expects declines of 5 to 10% in the 187 markets that it says are “significantly overvalued.” If we have a recession, the declines will be more like 15 to 20%.It's good to remember that we're still seeing year-over-year growth nationally, but it is slowing down every month. And depending on when you bought property, that could be a problem if you currently want to sell that same property. For example, if gains are dropping from 20% in January to 10% in July, and continuing in a downward slide, recent buyers could lose equity if they sell right now. It depends on the market and how much home prices have gone up recently.The markets I previously mentioned are expected to get hit by big price declines, along with others like Miami and Las Vegas. Selling homes in those markets during the current slowdown will likely result in the loss of equity. Those planning to hold on to their homes don't need to worry since they just want a place to live, and values will likely recover over time. The buyers who locked-in low mortgage rates are also in even better shape. You'll find a link to the articles mentioned in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com. If you'd like to learn more about owning single-family rentals, please hit the join link at the website. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review!Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.Links:1 -https://nypost.com/2022/09/05/us-zoom-towns-will-get-hit-with-falling-home-prices-expert/2 -https://fortune.com/2022/09/04/housing-market-map-home-price-cuts-redfin/

Are we headed for a housing recession? Home construction is falling, and prices are at their worst since the 1980s. Kevin Erdmann from the Mercatus Center has details on how inflation and other factors are putting the breaks on builders.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

8/12/22 Air date - 7 Changes we saw in housing trends after the COVID housing boom that are here to stay... The demand for homes and the types of homes, with these features, were highly demanded after the covid lockdowns, and these 7 trends are here to stay.

31 Guys in a U-Haul Busted at Pride, The Housing Boom is Over, Trump is Not Happy w/ the January 6th Hearings, Did you get Juneteenth Off? Moves on Gun Control in Progress, The Crypto Crash is Near! talk@drwhoever.com drwhoever.com --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/drwhoever/message

In 2018, the Camp Fire swept through California. It was the deadliest in the state's history, destroying more than 18,000 buildings and killing 85 people. The town of Paradise all but burned to the ground at the time. Four years later, Paradise is in the midst of a housing boom. New homes are everywhere as people, some of them who lost their homes in the Camp Fire, return to the region.There's no guarantee that another fire won't sweep through the region. So why are people flocking to the area?On today's episode of Cyber, Motherboard Staff Writer Aaron Gordon sits down to talk about what's going on in Paradise.. Gordon is newly back from California where he chased some dogs through some forests and talked to a few of the town's residents.Stories discussed in this episode:Paradise Burned to the Ground. Now It's Another Hot Housing MarketWe're recording CYBER live on Twitch. Watch live during the week. Follow us there to get alerts when we go live. We take questions from the audience and yours might just end up on the show.Subscribe to CYBER on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to your podcasts. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

A new report shows Americans have more equity in their homes than ever, and some of the highest levels of equity-rich property owners are in the Mountain West.

The housing boom continues and it's not expected to slow down anytime soon. But there's an issue behind this current boom and that is lack of affordable housing. Has the lack of affordable housing gotten worse in the U.S.? It may have. Listen to this timely and needed discussion with Joe Madison and response from his audience. 

Kevin Erdmann is the author of "Shut Out: How a Housing Shortage Caused the Great Recession and Crippled Our Economy" and "Building from the Ground Up: Reclaiming the American Housing Boom". His work has appeared in the Wall Street Journal, Barron's, the National Review, USA Today, and Politico, and it has been featured on C-SPAN. Some of his papers and articles published with the support of the Mercatus Center at George Mason University can be found at https://www.mercatus.org/scholars/kevin-erdmann . He tweets as @KAErdmann. In this episode we talked about:  • Kevin`s Bio & Background  • Great Financial Crisis and America's Housing Boom  • Post Crisis Period in Real Estate  • View on Housing Bubble  • Unlocking Affordable Housing Policy  • “What are Landlords good for?”  • Real Estate Trends 2022 Useful links: https://twitter.com/kaerdmann https://www.idiosyncraticwhisk.com/2022/03/16-part-series-on-housing-affordability.html https://www.mercatus.org/scholars/kevin-erdmann Transcriptions: Jesse (0s): Welcome to the working capital real estate podcast. My name is Jesper galley. And on this show, we discuss all things real estate with investors and experts in a variety of industries that impact real estate. Whether you're looking at your first investment or raising your first fund, join me and let's build that portfolio one square foot at a time. Ladies and gentlemen, my name's Jessica galley, and you're listening to working capital the real estate podcast. My guest today is Kevin Erdmann. Kevin is a former small businessman and a researcher in hosing monetary policy and financial markets.   In 2015, Kevin began to reconsider a range of evidence contradicting commonly held beliefs about the pre 2007 American housing boom, his first book shutout along with several extensions to his research, which were published with the support of the Mercatus center at George Mason university, where he continued to develop a revolutionary new approach to the practical rules of housing debt and money in recent American trends. I caught the attention or he caught my attention recently reading an article and the article was entitled.   What are landlords good for? And I thought that was an interesting question. So here we are today, Kevin, how you doing?   Kevin (1m 11s): Great. It's great. Thanks for having me.   Jesse (1m 13s): Yeah. Well thank you for coming on. We were talking a little bit before the show, a little bit about your background and kind of that first article that I saw. And I was like, well, you know what? It sounds like something that the listeners would get, get a lot of good information, especially since we kind of tackle real estate from the investor's perspective, but also an economic perspective. So thanks again, I guess, you know, we always start with a little bit of a, a history lesson on our guests are a little bit of a background, so maybe you could kick us off and talk a little bit about, you know, your past roles and how you kind of came into the world, the world of real estate and economics.   Kevin (1m 53s): I, yeah, it really is all sort of an accident. I was a, as you mentioned, I was a small business owner and back around 2010, 2011, I went back to school to get a graduate degree in finance. And I was sort of making my way toward a new career in finance. And in the meantime was just doing sort of personal research. And in, in the process of doing what I thought would be sort of a week or two week or month long dive into home builders and whether they might be a good investment back in 2015, in 2016, you know, sort of background research, I just kept running into oddities and the data that just completely contradicted the conventional wisdom about what had happened leading up to 2008, you know, that were compelling enough that I, you know, turned into two months in three months and really it was six or seven or eight months into the, into that research before I really Paul the, this whole sort of closed access to the idea, whole limited supply problem into the sort of the center of this story.   Originally, the first things were just re you know, finding national data on credit and that sort of thing, just, you know, there, there was, there was no sign in the national data back in that period of, of there being this, they lose of credit going to unqualified homeowners and that sort of thing. And so anyway, just all of this, all of these points kept building up to the point where I just accidentally sort of had this tiger by the tail of this story to tell, but for some reason, nobody else had discovered, and, and the book just comes out of the accident of learning this stuff and realizing it was important enough to, to shares.   So here I am six years into that week-long projects   Jesse (3m 50s): For where you formerly in the research world at that point, you said you were doing a graduate degree with, did that just kind of coincidentally that happened at the same time, or was that prompted by, by your research in, in your graduate degree?   Kevin (4m 3s): Yeah, no, I was just, you know, I managed some personal money and I was just intending to go back and, you know, go into transition away from small business ownership to some sort of career in finance. And just this story was so compelling. It drew me into what really, I suppose now as a career in public policy. So although there definitely are a lot of lessons for it, for investors and homeowners and everybody else.   Jesse (4m 27s): Yeah. We're finding more and more, everything seems to be interrelated. So, you know, for the person taking a look at this from the outside, you hear a million different stories after the great financial crisis after the housing boom in oh six, you know, what was it? Well, I guess, to back up, what is the general perception from your point of view that people had, or the story that they told themselves about that time period? And what were you finding that, you know, was the first telltale to you that there's some contradictions here?   Kevin (5m 0s): I mean, the first things that I found were, again, like I said, just that there really is very little evidence, you know, for instance, the typical, the median home homeowner in 2005 or six had a higher relative income compared to renters than they had had in say 1995, there wasn't this surge of unqualified homeowners, their average homeowner in 2005 and six had, you know, tended to have like education was becoming a more important factor.   So ownership among high school graduates was relatively level or declining in homeownership, you know, among college graduates and people with professional degrees and that's where home ownership was rising. So those were the initial sort of data points. But eventually what I realized is, you know, really what we have is a supply problem. There's key cities, which I call the closed access to these, which mainly is Boston, New York city San now LA those, those metropolitan areas that, you know, the character of our economy is basically becoming dominated by the fact that those cities aren't willing and able to grow as fast as the economy should grow.   And so what happens anytime there's any sort of growth, whether it's growth in credit access or just incomes, just productivity, there's this increasing bidding war to get into these limited locations. And so what happens is the price of housing skyrockets as a result of that. And so looking at that, there seems to be just an, for some reason, a bias toward blaming demand side factors on that too much money, too much credit speculators.   You know, today we we've sort of killed the marginal home buyer market. So today we blame private equity and foreign buyers and corporate buyers and corporate landlords. And, but all along, it's just not enough supply price can go up for two reasons, not enough supply or too much demand and all along, even back then, the problem is not enough. And instead we have this recurring intuition to say, oh, everyone else has too much money. And that's why I can't afford important things anymore.   And, and so, yeah, it's, you know, it's, it's a simple story thing. The houses are expensive because we don't have enough of them and you just have to look at it. You know, it's not hard to understand. You just have to look at it and accept that as a potential conclusion. And then the rest, the rest of the story sort of tells itself.   Jesse (7m 43s): So at the time, or even ex post the, you know, after, after the, the crisis years after we, you have movies coming out, you have people, you know, writing articles specifically on this writing books, you know, a lot of what the, I would say the general public was told was there was a lot of available credit. There was access to a lot of money. The money was very cheap, you know, somewhat similar to what we're hearing right now, fast forward this many years, but there was also this, this conversation or this theme that there was excess building, that there was an oversupply of housing.   And, you know, what was it about this story that was so compelling for people to adopt? If, if you know, you're saying the cases, the data just does, did not, or does not bear it out.   Kevin (8m 36s): I mean, it's a, it's a good question. I, I mean, today, you know, to me, it's getting, it's been, it's sort of easy for me to tell the story as time passes, because to continue holding onto that conventional wisdom gets harder and harder over time, right? Like I made today, we're in this weird political environment where, you know, mortgage growth growth has actually been, you know, dead for a decade and barely has started growing again in the last couple quarters.   And so how exactly are lower are low mortgage rates, you know, the, the, to blame for rising home prices, it's cashed by like everybody knows this, you see papers or stories in every paper about cash buyers coming in and 20 bids over asking and all this stuff. And so people with mortgages can't even get in on the process because they, they can't get an appraisal high enough to get their mortgage funded. So, you know, at some points that it just becomes absurd to, to blame credit for it.   You know, it's not quite as absurd back then, but effectively the same disconnects are, are in play and in the newer, but building from the ground at that, I know some of the data about, you know, for instance, in a, in a market like Arizona, which was, you know, a poster child was sort of a bubble city. You know, the, the conventional story is there was all this money flooding into housing through the credit channels that led to a bunch of excess building, or actually first that led to prices skyrocketing because of all this credit.   And then that led to overbuilding too many housing, too many houses. And then that all collapsed of its own weight. But it, it happened in the opposite order of that. The first thing that happened was there was a lot of new building because Phoenix was taking in all these people that didn't have houses in LA that would have preferred to live in LA. So the first thing that happened is there's a bunch of new building in Phoenix, but then they, they sort of reached their local limit. So then you see prices start to sky rocket and Phoenix in 2004 and five borrowing, you know, per capita debt in Arizona is still pretty normal until late 2005.   And then finally, when house prices in starts peaked at the end of 2005, then you finally start to see debt start to raise. So everything happens in the opposite order of what, you know, what the stories seemed to tell, you know, the conventional wisdom says, but you know, it, you have to sort of dig into the numbers a little bit and, and, you know, to sort of see that come out, you know, one of the problems is there's not really a national housing market.   And I think that's where there should, there could be a national housing market, but because these supply constraints were so localized, it's very difficult to just certain information. You have to be careful about this serving information by looking at national numbers, because the market in Nashville or Omaha was much different than marketing San Francisco. And you throw all those numbers into one big basket, you know, the, the noise ends up hiding the information. So that's, that's one, you know, if you look at the national numbers, it does look like mortgages and prices were all sort of going up together.   But you know, most of the countries didn't have either a price, boom, or as construction, boom, most of you know, cities like Atlanta and Omaha and all those cities were building houses about the same rate as they have been, you know, for several years, the housing boom is in, was in places like LA that were building so few houses that even a relative boom is still an it pitiful on absolute members. And then you had a boom in places like Phoenix that are overwhelmed by the people looking for affordable place to live.   Jesse (12m 42s): And with that story, I assume, when you looked at different cities was the same story of that causality, just being exactly the opposite of what people had thought it was that, you know, interest rates, you know, if those were a factor, it was almost like gasoline at the very end to, to kind of keep fueling what had already started prior.   Kevin (13m 1s): Yeah, yeah. And so, you know, really when you get to 2007, you have what we have is a housing market or in an economy, or let's say you go back to 2005, really in 2005, the fed was, you know, pretty much, you know, we were about on target in terms of nominal GDP growth inflation. The thing we were a little out of whack on was that rent inflation had been high since the mid nineties and was still a little high, but was finally actually coming down where rent inflation was about the same as normal inflation.   So, so in 2005, what we really had was in the economy where the fed was doing their job, that we could use a few more homes, but the conventional wisdom was so powerfully sort of on the opposite side of the F you know, in the belief that we had overbuilt that there was, you know, the high prices were because of demand side stuff. So that must mean we're doing too much. And so, you know, the funny thing is housing started started to collapse in 2006.   The first thing that happened in 2006 and seven is rent inflation shoots back up again. So actually we, one of the things I go in to, in the building from the ground up narrative is it's sort of parallel to the seventies where you had inflation, but you had these oil shocks that the fed was reacting to really in 2006 and seven, what we had was a housing shock, just like the oil shocks. We got a housing supply shock because the fed itself had, had slowed down construction.   And then when rent inflation rared up in the face of this housing supply shock, the fed reacted to the inflation and say, oh, it's our job to keep inflation low. And we do that by lowering incomes. And so by 2006 and seven, we get in this vicious cycle where they're actually reacting to the shock they had. They had started, you know, instead of, instead of seeing what was happening and thinking, oh, we've gone too far. Every time they Ratched it up, you know, slow down the economy more and rent, inflation was high and housing starts kept collapsing.   Then they looked at that and they said, oh, we, we were wrong. You know, our critics were right in 2005, we must have, we must have induced too much home building because now it's 2007. And when we try to correct things, home housing starts are collapsing even more than what we thought they would. So we must've been doing too much in 2005. And what happens is by the end of 2007, they're convinced that they had made mistakes in 2005. That by now it was too late to fix. They actually solved some sort of crisis coming and they just came to believe that they couldn't do anything about it.   Really, if they had flooded the market with liquidity in 2007, that what we needed is a fed aggressive enough for housing starts to recover in 2007. And then none, none of us would be talking about any of this today and what we we'd still be blaming the banks for. Hi, we'd be having the conversation they have in Canada about housing, right? We'd still be blaming whatever for home prices and probably blaming the fed for them, not knowing that we had escaped the worst economic calamity intergeneration.   Jesse (16m 14s): So what, what policy mechanisms, so back then, we'll, we'll fast forward today in a little bit, but what policy mechanism at that point, are you going to be able to use to encourage that or discourage the, what you were talking about with Arizona, where you hit your cap, you know, very similar to Toronto or New York LA very strict laws on, you know, how much can be built, what can be built. So is it, is it are the mechanisms left at the local level rather than at the federal level? You know, what do you do at that point where you're trying to encourage, you're trying to encourage building and, and we're, we're conceding that it is a supply issue.   Kevin (16m 53s): Exactly. Yeah. So that's, you know, that's the difficult question is optimal policies aren't available. So, you know, really, it's just the case that we have these cities that are unwilling to grow at the rate that our economy should be growing. And so anytime anything good happens, you know, if things get good enough, then there's this inevitable segregation by financial means by, you know, segregation by income, you know, the people that can, you know, now there's a bidding war for those, these limited locations.   So anything that eventually leads to just a nice economy that you'd like to have is going to lead to a segregation at this inter metropolitan or area migration. And the way that migration works is housing gets more and more expensive in those cities until somebody hurts enough that they give up on living in the city, they want lived to move to these other cities. So, yeah, I mean, it's, it's sort of a weird, you know, th the second best optimal solution in that context is to slow the economy down enough, to like limit the pain of that segregation process.   That's not, you know, we need those cities to fix their problems. That's not, that's not a second best solution. You want your national economic figures to be aiming for. Right. But, but yeah, that's essentially, that's what happened is that process of segregation because of a lack of housing got so accelerated so much and became so painful that it started, you know, bleeding out into these, the cities that I call the contagion cities, which are the Phoenix, is in Florida and Arizona and Nevada and inland California, that we're taking in all these people coming out of the coastal metropolises.   And so what happened is the fed slowed down the economy enough to, to ease those segregation pressures. And then, but then, you know, instead of sort of stopping one thing I say in the band building from the ground up is they actually did succeed by mid 2007 at creating a soft landing, as good as they ever could have planned for. And that was the least satisfying, you know, conclude, you know, in expat they could get at, nobody was satisfied with that.   And so they kept pushing and pushing it to all that bad debt actually happens well past the peak of the housing boom of people in places like Arizona and Florida, that now are early entrance into this coming crisis, because they've said that, you know, for decades, they've been growing two or two and a half percent a year. And then as that as, as the economic growth in the two thousands ratcheted up and people were moving there to find affordable housing, now they're going and more like 3% a year.   And it's so much that that's adding stress to their local economies. And then suddenly from 2006 to 2008 or nine, it goes to zebra, like suddenly decades, long migration, just flattens. And so, although, you know, so many of those mortgages taking, taken out in Arizona and Florida in 2006 and seven were actually just households dealing with the financial crisis that hit them before it hit everyone else.   And instead of reacting to that with generosity, with, with the name towards stability, we just took everything that happened as a, this is another thing that's happening because of this, because of the excesses from 2005, and really for people to learn their lesson, people need to suffer those losses. You know, that was the mentality. And so, you know, that 2008 crisis was really a popular crisis that happened because nobody would for anything less damaging than that.   Jesse (20m 50s): So just on this point, I want to talk a little bit about affordable housing and policy perspective, but just before we do on that, the, the idea, you know, we're, we're in a housing bubble or, you know, we're, we're currently in a housing bubble or back then we were in a housing bubble. I know, you know, you can take the very strict in every time I would do little bit of research on this. You'd get, you know, the famous Eugene Fama and, you know, he would talk about it's, he would have such a strict definition of what a bubble could possibly be that it's like, well, it's always priced in, but this idea that asset prices are untenably high was, is that the framework that you looked at, oh 7 0 8 or even today, or do you have a different, different view on what that, that term means to you?   Kevin (21m 37s): Again, this is a great example of how looking at national numbers versus desegregated numbers is, you know, it gives you two different stories. So you can look at national numbers and, you know, from the mid nineties, till 2005 price to rent ratios, you know, take the national aggregate value of homes and divided by the national rental value of homes and priced rate ratios went up. And so it's a very easy story to tell yourself that, oh, there's all this credit it's, you know, prices are rising and, you know, all the official documents on this, like the financial crisis, that agree commission, the 500 books on the shelf at the bookstore about the crisis.   I mean, they all, they all, they all very briefly point that out and it becomes the presumption of everything to follow, you know, like the big short, like, you know, in the book, in building from the ground up, I say, you know, the big, there's nothing wrong in the big short, it's just a story about an, a growing crisis that started in 2006. And it just takes us the presumption that that crisis was inevitable or that these things happening in 2006, have anything to do with what happened in 2003 or four or five.   And so it's just that, you know, that, that presumption that, oh, prices went up for no reason. And they so surely they must have to come back down. Right. But if you desegregate by city, you know, re prices were going up where rents were going up, prices were going up where there aren't any vacancies, you know, so if you, if you do a cross sectional and regression across cities, then it's the stories reversed, but prices are totally being driven by fundamentals.   And it is funny in, in the financial crisis inquiry commission report, you know, they take, they do literally take a single paragraph to dismiss rents is an important factor in rising prices. And it, you know, with this, this logic that price to rent ratios have gone up well, the, they have three or four cities, examples of where priced rent ratios, you know, had doubled or more at which, you know, surely is so outrageous that it shows the prices are too high to those cities where LA in New York city.   So, you know, to me, the, you know, sort of reorienting the way we look at this story, imagine writing a 500 page review of the financial crisis. And based on the idea that rent is an unimportant factor in high-end housing costs in Los Angeles and New York city, right? The reason price to rent ratios are so high. Ironically, the reason price to rent ratios were so high and had gone up so much, is that the main factor that increases price to rent ratios is high rents.   I just cry across time across cities, within cities, anywhere where you compare rents and prices, price to rent ratios are always highest where rents are Heights. And I'm sure all your investor listeners understand that, you know, they're, they're not out by, you know, getting investment properties in the wealthy suburbs of the metropolitan areas, because the cause the returns on their investment are much lower there. You know, the, the investors are buying at the low end where your, where your cap rates, where your, your, your yields are higher.   It's just a systematic thing that happens across the board. So again, it's this weird, you can understand how they would make that mistake. It seems like they give price to rent ratio is a doubled over a decade that, that, that, you know, you know, you don't have it. Doesn't take a lot of analysis to say, oh yeah, the prices must be rising in spite of rinse. But the irony is actually those, you know, you go again, you go to an Omaha or a St.   Louis Price ratios hadn't changed very much at all in those cities. Now, if it was households with low incomes, getting, getting mortgages, they weren't qualified for those would be the cities you do. You think you'd see a bit of a jump in the price to rent ratios they heard, right. But no re their prices were highly throughout this entire period from the mid nineties tilts today, rent has continually become a more and more important factor determining the relative price of, of any particular house.   Jesse (26m 3s): So for the, I mean, to me, that analysis, you, you almost, it's easier to accept the former because it just, one thing is easily. You can say, okay, that follows where the other one, you have to do a little bit more digging. So for instance, if you see, especially, you know, Toronto Vancouver, where we were, where we are very similar to San Francisco LA New York, where you could from the outside valuations have gone up like crazy interest rates aside from very recently have remained very low.   And for the foreseeable future, that's the way it looked like it was going to go and rents were going up, but not at the same rate, that values were going up. And if you just looked at it, just statically that, then you could kind of see that argument. But, you know, even, you know, for where we live, we've this year, we're going to have record immigration. And I re I don't remember a law firm economics class, but I remember, you know, what moves, not just what goes up and down the supply curve, but what actually shifts the supply curve and, you know, technological innovation or immigration, where those are things that maybe they're not necessarily seen right from the outset.   But those coupled with lack of building could create this mismatch. I'm curious, the, the actual from the perspective, and then we can dive into affordable housing here from the perspective of, of affordable housing. I think in, you know, in many cities in north America, there, there is housing that is left, locked because of regulations and, you know, basement, walkouts, accessory apartments, different zoning regulation.   Is that a, is that a large portion of where you think that we could unlock affordable housing? Would that be a policy tool that, that, you know, would be at the top of the list?   Kevin (27m 48s): I think we definitely, it, it's not a situation now where there are just tons of empty units. I don't think, I mean, I think there's a lot of locked, you know, unbuilt units and some of my colleagues at Mercatus, you know, work on that, they call it the missing middle sort of, you know, there was this historically there was a, there used to be a lot more of, you know, say a family, building a duplex or triplex and living in one of the units or building a unit in the backyard, or, you know, that may be a grandparent lives in to begin with and eventually becomes a rental or whatever.   So that sort of building just hasn't been happening for decades because it was regulated away. And, but vacancies have really, you know, we really put, turn the screws tightly on mortgage lending after 2007. And so I really, what I say is there's a donut hole in the American housing market. Now, there are, you know, we're sort of maxing out our multiunit building, which is really largely limited by regulatory obstacles.   And then that the pristine credit borrowers at the high end are, are buying as much house as they want because they can get low rates. And they, you know, so they they're basically unconstrained in how much housing they went. And then there's this middle millions of households that used to be able to get mortgages that can't today. And so it's that entry level, new housing market that we just basically, you know, any given year before say 2006, the new homes built for sale at, at less than a $200,000 price point in the United States.   There were, there would be more than a half a million a year built by the last couple of years. That's down to like 70,000 a year. Now, you know, there's some inflation, it's a little bit hard to control for that, but, you know, for most of that time, home prices were lower than they had been in 2005. So, so really we, we just made it impossible for those entry level owners to induce new supply themselves. So that's the irony today is now today because there's a, you know, everyone blames demand side stuff, you know, for high home prices what's happened is because we have this donut hole in the middle of the American housing market.   No, city's been able to build enough at the Metro area level to have adequate supply over the last 12 years. And so in every city rents at the low end are going up just like Vincent. The low ended have been going up in San Francisco, in New York city for, for, you know, years before then. And now that's drawing in institutional investors. And now the narrative is, oh, institutional investors are pricing out, you know, traditional home buyers. Well, you know, we we've excluded traditional home buyers from that market 12, 13 years ago that, you know, any, anybody that can get a mortgage in those sort of markets could lower their monthly housing costs by becoming an owner versus a renter in most cities today, it becomes the low end.   The yields are very good. So, you know, especially compared to mortgage rates. So it's, it's, they're not being priced out of the market. They're being regulated out of the market. And it's good. Finally, we have institutions coming in with enough interest that it's actually inducing home builders to build entry-level units and these new build for rent neighborhoods. Now, those shouldn't be being bought by the families that are gonna live in them, but it's not the institutions that are keeping them out.   It's the, it's the FHF and the consumer finance protection bureau that are keeping them from being owners.   Jesse (31m 47s): So you talked, I mean, we started at the outset of this, basically this article that you wrote that kind of ties in here and it was called what are landlords good for? And I just wanted to, we talked a little bit about this, but I hope, hope that you can expand a little bit and I'll just quote this part here. So to understand why housing affordability policies should primarily consider rent and why the U S focus on price has proven disastrous. We need to understand the roles and incentives of three key parties, landlords financeers and tenants and quote at this particular article article was about the three services that landlords provide transactional capital and diversification as kind of the spotlight for this, this concept.   You know, you don't have to go into super granular detail here, but could you talk a little bit about what you, you know, what the aim of that article was and why the focus on, on landlords in this particular way?   Kevin (32m 45s): Yeah, well, maybe, I don't know if this is coming directly from the same point of that article, but, but I do think one of the things, you know, on that idea of focusing on rents as the core affordability issue and not prices, I think we, there's a lot of bad habits in housing analysis that I wish we could, we could move past. And one of them is treating the homeowner market as if it's a different thing than the renter market, you know, and a lot of times you get these sort of implications in the way people talk about housing as if, when somebody buys a house that, you know, somehow that's adding demand for housing as if they were living under a bridge when they weren't an owner, or, you know, when an institution buys a house that takes away supply, or, you know, as if, you know, they tear it down after they buy it.   Right. And, and another thing which I think these, these cities with the lack of supply of sort of fed into another notion, which is that either you get these outstanding, you know, excess returns, like somebody that bought a house in LA or San Francisco twenty-five years ago, that somehow that's like the goal of being a homeowner and that somebody that bought a house for 120,000 to Detroit twenty-five years ago, that may be only worth 150,000 today somehow missed out.   Or somehow that was a bad investment use. You've seen this phrase a lot that housing can be affordable, or it could investment, but can't be both. It's like, you know, the, Y w people acting wise will say this, you know, you know, sort of impart their wisdom on everyone. And it's a terrible, it's totally wrong, you know, and it, nobody goes to the stock market and says, oh, I'm only going to buy the most expensive stocks because you know, it's not, can be expensive, they're affordable or a good investment, but not both, but of course the best affordable house is the cheap house.   And you shouldn't expect to make a million dollars on it. If you sit on it for, that's the thing that's wrong, that's the thing that's out of whack. And so I think there's been way too much focus on the idea that buying a house gives you access to capital gains. And in fact, the main value to being a homeowner is that you're, that you're getting a job as a landlord, as a management company, and you have the best tenants anyone could ever ask for that never disagreed, you know, that never have any disagreements with you about how to manage the property, right?   They, if you take two years to fix the leaky window, they never complain, right. If you, if you can't afford to upgrade the kitchen exactly. When they went to, they're not going to move out on, they, they understand, you know, you have to wait until you, so they, you know, there's principal agent problems that make a landlord tenant situation, actually, you know, but by, by making the tenant and the landlord, the same person you get rid of all those costs, there's the problem with that, of that.   You can't diversify there. Now, you own this big giant asset, and that's a cost of that. But clearly for most people, the getting rid of the agency costs is, is more valuable than the lack of diversification. And so, again, that, to me, that's why the whole thing about institutions, pricing people out institutions, can't price people out. If somebody has access to credit, they will, they can outbid the institutions. It's the access to credit. That's a, and it's not that institutions have too much credit it's that we've prevented people from getting the credit that they need in order to get rid of these agency costs and be their own landlord.   So, you know, the thing is home ownership, the value of home ownership actually should be this really boring thing that it's, you know, amounts to a couple thousand dollars a year of, of being able to, you know, sort of earn the rental value of that a landlord would earn because they have to take the risk of having bad tenants, and you can earn that income without taking that risk on. And so, you know, you should be able to, you know, you should expect to be able to buy a cheap house in the city.   That's still going to be cheap in 20 years and be very happy with that investment. And in fact, that investment, as I was saying, price to rent ratios are systematically higher. The more expensive the market is. So the people were locking out of the market as homeowners. They're the people for whom being a homeowner is the most valuable that the yield on their unit is much better. You know, somebody that would love to get a mortgage to buy $150,000 house in Atlanta, that's paying, you know, they're paying 1500 a month in rent today and they could get a mortgage for 800 a month.   And the CFPB says, I don't think you're qualified for that. Right. You know, they we're preventing them from being a landlord for them is very lucrative. Like it's several hundred dollars a month in value they get from that. And so, yeah, we were basically locking out the people that, you know, the person that owns the half million dollar house in Atlanta that they're not getting as good a deal. It's still a good deal to be a homeowner for them, but it's not as good a deal as it is for the person that would like the $150,000 house.   Jesse (38m 15s): It's a compelling argument. When you say the, the, you know, when people are saying these institutional purchasers are pricing people out, they can't price people out. You know, for me, it crystallizes when I think about our industry and commercial real estate, when we have a multiple bid situation with commercial property, the nine times out of 10, it is the owner that is going to be able to pay the most for it. And it is essentially the same thing in, in, I mean, in a sense where they are purchasing and leasing back to their own company.   And it is this idea that they have all the mechanisms to be the one that can pay the most. So to your point, it kind of has a similar thread of, you know, comparing the institution that they can do everything that you are doing as the purchaser, but they can't eliminate every single tree. They can have scale, but they can eliminate every single transaction costs.   Kevin (39m 5s): Yeah, yeah. But yeah, it is very similar there. They can decide if you're, if you own it and they're the tenant, they, they have their own reasons for whether they would close the store down and, and not renew the lease or whatever. They don't care if that's a cost to you, but, but if they're their own landlord, well, now you can account for all the costs and maybe they'd stay a few more years and yeah, exactly. It's and so we, we basically regulated a bunch of American households out of being able to make that decision on the March.   Jesse (39m 39s): So we're coming up to the end of the, the time here. I think we, we definitely have to get you back on Kevin re I'm. Sure we could talk a little bit more about your book and the current situation or current, you know, place that we're in economically, but before we do, you know, give people direction on where they can go to reach out to you, maybe we talk a little bit about, you know, where you see trends are going right now with, you know, we're in the beginning and of Q1 20, 22, you know, is there anything that people should be looking out for from real estate or economics point of view that you'd like to touch on?   Kevin (40m 16s): I'd say it's a little bit the same in a little bit different than what was happening in 2004 and five. Again, it's, it's the same story in that rents are what's driving prices in a way that's much more connected and important that people are giving group credit for it. And in fact, I, one of the things I think is sort of funny about the, all these sort of public conversations happening is you get a conversation over here, you know, oh, you know, rent inflation is really high. And you know, the CPI rent inflation is lagging, but you know, the, the indexes that follow, you know, market rents on new units, they're up double digits.   And so these across the country, right? So you have that conversation that, oh, rents are through the roof. And so that conversation tends to be about oh, inflation and monetary policy. So we need to, we need to slow down the economy because people have too much money. Then there's this other conversation that, oh, prices are through the roof. And it, and it's because mortgage rates are too low. And so people are overpaying for houses and, and it's a whole totally different conversation.   But it's based on this idea that the fed controls, the interest rate, which they don't, the fed couldn't make mortgage rates 6%. If they, they, we would be trade. We would be bartering seashells for things before they could get Margaret trace to 5%, they'd have to suck every dollar out of the fact, that's what happened in 2008, they literally would have had to suck every dollar out of the economy to hit their 2% rate a target in 2008. And, and they couldn't, and they ended up creating a financial crisis.   So, but there's this idea that the fed controls that rate. And so now they have to raise rates to S to lower those prices because the prices, well, those things are related. High prices are high because rents are high and they're both high because we don't have enough supply. And, but the thing that makes it different in 2005 is that back then, it was very localized. That prices were going up in these, in these individual metropolitan areas that, that were, that specifically have local supply problems.   When we put this donut hole in the middle of the American housing buyer market. Now we've created a supply crisis in every city in the country. So rents are going up everywhere. Like they had been only going up in the coastal metropolises and those, those housing costs take on a, in fact, I got some papers that I'm, that we'll be publishing pretty soon. I've been working on this, this idea that when there's limited supply in a city, it takes a very peculiar picture.   It's the low end of the city where prices and rents get ratcheted up by that lack of supply. Because at th at the high end, people can substitute down. Like if, if you're making $200,000 a year in San Francisco, you're not going to buy the same house. You'd buy in Phoenix. What you're going to do a substitute down to a neighborhood that should, the people that live in that neighborhood should be able to making 70,000 a year, but you're taking one of their houses because you, because you're not going to spend the money. Right. So all that pressure gets pushed down, down, down and down in the market.   So all the, all the cost pressure ends up getting, getting loaded at the low end until finally somebody making $50,000 a year moves out of town because they just can't take the cost anymore, but you can see this. So for instance, in the last five or six years, rent inflation is through the roof in every city, but it's very income specific in the, in, in the neighborhoods, in a city where incomes are low, every city is seeing double digit inflation rents at the high end are pretty stable. So you get this weird market where yeah.   Prices are going up at the high end of every city. And yeah, those are, you know, somewhat related to low interest rates. So there is some, there is a little bit of, of price to rent ratio expansion at the top end, which is, you know, it's still a fundamental it's rates are low and they're low for fundamental reasons at the low end prices are going up more than that. Then they are at the high end, but it's purely a rent function. It's purely because rents are going up so much more than women.   So the irony is, yeah, there is some, some expansion in the ratios, but the, the homes where the homes whose prices have gone up the most are the homes where ratio expansion is the least important fact. It's, it's rents that are driving the places that are going up the most. That's not going to reverse overnight. Like we need to build millions of homes to stop that process. Now, I, I see again, you know, where it's second best alternatives.   We should be building a bunch of condos in New York city in LA, and we're not. So the best, second best alternative is to build whatever we can everywhere else. So, you know, we have second best, you know, we start with the second best, you know, we should be building homes or condos in LA and San Francisco. We can't. So we built, so we try to build them everywhere else. You know, that means a lot of people would be building a lot of single family homes in the suburbs and all these other cities. Now we won't let it that a lot of them do it.   So now it's like the best alternative is to let institutions build them and rent them out. So, you know, if that's the only solution we allow for ourselves, then that's the only way we're going to bring down rents and that's going to be a long drawn out process. But I certainly don't take any, Hey, I don't think anybody needs to worry about mortgage rates going to 7%, all of a sudden, and be even if mortgage rates go up a little, I don't think low rates are really what's driving the market.   So housing, I think, and real estate, General's a very interesting sector now because it really is sort of both offensive defense. You know, there's, the rents are going to keep rising until we meet the demand with adequate supply. And so there's going to be a natural continuing price appreciation. And the only way that that's going to stop is for the home builders and the, and the private equity, you know, multiunit built companies to, to do what they do and do more of it.   And so to me, there's nothing, but you know, nothing but growth ahead, either in supply or in prices. And yeah, so, you know, I'm shocked at the, you know, I think there's so much worry in the market about reliving 2008. To me, you look at some of the valuations on home builders. It's, it's just insanity. They're trading at legitimate PE ratios of two or three points on forward PE ratios. And, you know, I don't see any legitimate reason to think their earnings are going anywhere.   Jesse (47m 19s): Well, we definitely need to delve into, I guess, the, the state of the economy now and, and what we see coming down the pike, because I think it's, it's another conversation Kevin, for individuals that want to, you know, get in contact, or just want to get exposed to some of the writings that you, that you're doing. And you mentioned a couple of papers as well. I work in working people, working, you send them to online.   Kevin (47m 45s): I have my Twitter handle is K Erdman and you can see the, the papers that'll be coming out will be Mercatus papers. And so my, my scholar page at Mercatus is probably a good spot to, to dig into. And including that, that the, the post you referenced was from, was it, I forget how many parts were in that say it was a long series. I did back a couple of years ago on housing affordability.   And so that you would find in that series, that the murkiness and scholar page.   Jesse (48m 19s): Yeah. We'll put a link up to that. And we'll, we'll link the, the two books on Amazon building from the ground up and shut out. So we'll have links. If anybody's interested there, just check out the show notes   Kevin (48m 33s): In my DMS are open at Twitter. If anybody wants to home,   Jesse (48m 38s): My guest today has been Kevin Erdman. Kevin, thank you for being part of working capital.   Kevin (48m 43s): Thanks.   Jesse (48m 51s): Thank you so much for listening to working capital the real estate podcast. I'm your host, Jesse, for galley. If you liked the episode, head on to iTunes and leave us a five star review and share on social media, it really helps us out. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me on Instagram, Jesse for galley, F R a G a L E, have a good one take care.  

Learn More About House Academy Here Why We Have Not Missed the Housing Boom (LA 1635) Transcript: Steven:Steve and Jill here. Jill:Hello. Steven:Welcome to the Land Academy Show, entertaining land investment talk. I'm Steven Jack Butala. Jill:There was a long pause there. I'm Jill DeWit and we are broadcasting from the Valley of the Sun. Steven:Today, Jill and I talk about why we've not missed the housing boom at all. Jill:Personally or all of us? Steven:All of us. Jill:Good. Steven:This all comes from... Jill and I have children between the ages of, let's say 26, 27 and 18, and all of them and all of their friends have all throughout their entire... Let's call it late teens, early twenties have said, "Well, you guys are the generation or two generations before us. And thanks for wrecking everything." Jill:"You guys are the last homeowners," like, "Hold on a moment." Steven:To which I say, "I said the same thing to my parents," to which my parents have said, "That's what I said to my parents." Before we get into it, let's take a question posted by one of our members on the LandInvestors.com online community. It's free. And if you... Oh, please don't forget to subscribe, I should say, on the Land Academy YouTube channel and comment on the shows you like. Jill:David wrote, "Could someone give me some insight? I'm closing on my first deal. It's a 9.37 acre parcel. And in 20 days, there's not a ton of comps in the immediate area, and I was originally thinking about trying to sell it for around 30 to $40,000. But I've been doing a deep dive on research and looking at active listings. I noticed two neighboring parcels at 1.4 and 1.3 acres sold at 10,000 an acre, but it took four to six months. I'm very tempted to list it for $79,900. Even 70% of 10,000 acre at 65,000 and some change I would be thrilled with. I don't want to get crazy and list"... Oh, "I don't want to get crazy and list too high"- Steven:That was my fault. Jill:"And have to sit and/or not sell. Am I getting too excited with the neighboring properties? I'm licensed. I'm probably going to list it myself. So, if I can get the buyers and save some money... But I'm tempted to consider using a local realtor. The MLS might be different than the local one, and I might assume a local realtor who's any good would have a better handle on the prices." Is that the end of it? Steven:Yeah. Jill:So, do you want to go first? Steven:Congratulations. This is working for you. I'm really, really glad. I mean it, you're going to get through this first deal. It's going to be a lot easier. You're going to look back on it and say, "Wow, I learned a lot and I can't wait for the second one." Just like your first marriage. So... Jill:Why do you do...? Steven:I do it to annoy you. Jill:Just poking me all day long. Does this happen to you? Poke, poke, poke. Steven:It didn't bother you. If you just sailed right through it and didn't listen to anything I said, I'd never do it again. Jill:Because clearly you don't want to get a rise out of me. Steven:Here's a couple technical things, and a lot of people in our group in Discord commented the same way. Price per acre on small properties... We take a one acre property and it's priced at $10,000. So, it sells for 10,000 and apply that to even an adjoining property that's 10 acres or 40 acres... You can't use that same number. [crosstalk 00:03:27] The higher the acreage number... If it's 40 acres versus one acre, the price per acre's going to be lower. It's called the bottle case theory. When you buy a single bottle of Coca-Cola and then look at the case price, it's always cheaper to buy it by the case. It's just a pure economics thing. That's why people who subdivide property for a living make hoards and hoards of money. If you take a 40 acre property and buy it for four grand and, theoretically, divide it into 40 properties and sell it for a thousand dollars each, now you... Jill:Buy four, sold it for 40. Steven:I'm grossly oversimplifying it.

On this episode of The Resident Historian with Feliks Banel: looking for the real ghosts of hijacker D.B. Cooper. Then, on “All Over The Map,” the forgotten centennial of a monument at Mount Rainier. And, From The Archives: men from Portland created Seattle’s first housing boom in 1851. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

U.S. housing prices are soaring, due to a combination of ultra-low interest rates, sky-high lumber prices and a supply-and-demand imbalance brought on by the pandemic. But with the federal foreclosure moratorium just lifted, things could soon change. Dan speaks with Jeremy Wacksman, COO of real estate tech company Zillow, to better understand what the boom means for consumers and the country, and how long it might last. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices