Podcast appearances and mentions of Jared Bernstein

donald trump reality new york times elon musk white house trade rhetoric divorced outdated ruth ben ghiat ali velshi jared bernstein brendan ballou

Play Episode Listen Later May 31, 2025 42:31

Tonight on The Last Word: Conservatives slam Donald Trump's tariffs as unconstitutional. Also, tourism from nations hit by Trump's tariffs plummets. Plus, while leaving his White House role Elon Musk dodged a question about a New York Times reports on his alleged drug use on the campaign trail. And Trump pardons criminals convicted of tax and fraud crimes. Jared Bernstein, Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford, Ruth Ben-Ghiat, and Brendan Ballou join Ali Velshi.

An idiot's guide to the bond market

Afternoon Drive with John Maytham

Play Episode Listen Later May 30, 2025 9:40

Mike Wills is joined by Vincent Anthonyrajah, CEO and co-founder of Differential Capital, for a crash course in Bond Market 101 — and why global investors are suddenly jittery. With Trump back in the headlines and Republican fiscal plans adding trillions to U.S. debt, markets are reacting with rising interest rates, slower growth forecasts, and a general sense of financial unease. Presenter John Maytham is an actor and author-turned-talk radio veteran and seasoned journalist. His show serves a round-up of local and international news coupled with the latest in business, sport, traffic and weather. The host’s eclectic interests mean the program often surprises the audience with intriguing book reviews and inspiring interviews profiling artists. A daily highlight is Rapid Fire, just after 5:30pm. CapeTalk fans call in, to stump the presenter with their general knowledge questions. Another firm favourite is the humorous Thursday crossing with award-winning journalist Rebecca Davis, called “Plan B”. Thank you for listening to a podcast from Afternoon Drive with John Maytham Listen live on Primedia+ weekdays from 15:00 and 18:00 (SA Time) to Afternoon Drive with John Maytham broadcast on CapeTalk https://buff.ly/NnFM3Nk For more from the show go to https://buff.ly/BSFy4Cn or find all the catch-up podcasts here https://buff.ly/n8nWt4x Subscribe to the CapeTalk Daily and Weekly Newsletters https://buff.ly/sbvVZD5 Follow us on social media: CapeTalk on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CapeTalk CapeTalk on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@capetalk CapeTalk on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ CapeTalk on X: https://x.com/CapeTalk CapeTalk on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@CapeTalk567 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

How to Run the Treasury Department

Statecraft

Play Episode Listen Later May 29, 2025 51:03

Santi: Hi, this is a special episode of Statecraft. I've got a wonderful guest host with me today. Kyla Scanlon: Hey, I'm Kyla Scanlon! I'm the author of a book called In This Economy and an economic commentator. Santi: Kyla has joined me today for a couple reasons. One, I'm a big fan of her newsletter: it's about economics, among many other things. She had a great piece recently on what we can learn from C.S. Lewis's The Screwtape Letters, which is a favorite book of mine.Kyla's also on today because we're interviewing Wally Adeyemo, who was the Deputy Secretary of the Treasury in the Biden administration. We figured we each had questions we wanted answered.Kyla: Yeah, I've had the opportunity to interview Wally a couple times during the Biden administration, and I wanted to see where he thinks things are at now. He played a key role in implementing the Inflation Reduction Act, financial sanctions on Russia, and a whole bunch of other things.Santi: For my part, I'm stuck on Wally's role in setting up the IRS's Direct File program, where you can file your taxes for free directly through the IRS instead of paying TurboTax a hundred bucks to do it. “Good governance types” tend to love Direct File, but the current admin is thinking of killing it. I wanted to understand how the program got rolled out, how Wally would respond to criticisms of the program, and what he learned from building something in government, which now may disappear.Kyla, you've talked to Wally before. How did that conversation go? Kyla: I actually was able to go to his office in D.C., and I talked to a couple of key people in the Biden administration: Jared Bernstein, the former chair of the CEA, and Daniel Hornung, who was at the National Economic Council.We're talking to Wally on the day that the House passed the one big beautiful bill. There's also so much happening financially, like the bond market is totally rebelling against the US government right now. I'm really curious how he thinks things are, as a key player in the last administration.Santi: Wally, you've spent most of your career in Democratic Party institutions. You worked on the Kerry presidential campaign in 2004. You served in the Obama admin. You were the first chief of staff to the CFPB, the president of the Obama Foundation, and, most recently, Deputy Treasury Secretary in the Biden admin.30,000ft question: How do you see the Democratic Party today?My view is that we continue to be the party that cares deeply about working-class people, but we haven't done a good job of communicating that to people, especially when it comes to the things that matter most to them. From my standpoint, it's costs: things in America cost too much for a working-class family.I want to make sure I define working class: I think about people who make under $100,000 a year, many of whom don't own homes on the coast or don't own a significant amount of stocks (which means they haven't seen the asset appreciation that's led to a great deal of wealth creation over the last several decades). When you define it that way, 81% of Americans sit in that category of people. Despite the fact that they've seen their median incomes rise 5-10% over the last five years, they've seen the cost of the things they care about rise even faster.We haven't had a clear-cut agenda focused on the standard of living, which I think is the thing that matters most to Americans today.Santi: There are folks who would say the problem for Democrats wasn't that they couldn't communicate clearly, or that they didn't have a governing agenda, but that they couldn't execute their agenda the way they hoped to in the time available to them. Would you say there's truth to that claim?Most people talk about a communications issue, but I don't think it's a communications issue. There are two issues. One is an implementation issue, and the second is an issue of the actual substance and policy at the Treasury Department. I was the deputy secretary, but I was also the Chief Operating Officer, which meant that I was in charge of execution. The two most significant domestic things I had to execute were the American Rescue Plan, where $1.9 trillion flowed through the Treasury Department, and the Inflation Reduction Act. The challenge with execution in the government is that we don't spend a lot on our systems, on making execution as easy as possible.For example, the Advanced Child Tax Credit was intended to give people money to help with each of their children during the pandemic. What Congress called on us to do was to pay people on a monthly basis. In the IRS system, you pay your taxes mostly on an annual basis, which meant that most of our systems weren't set up to pay a monthly check to Americans. It took us a great deal of work to figure out a way to recreate a system just to do that.We've underinvested in the systems that the IRS works on. The last time we made a significant investment in the IRS's digital infrastructure was the 1960s; before we had an ATM machine, before we sent a man to the moon, before we had a personal computer. So that meant that everything was coded in a language called COBOL.So execution was quite hard in the American Rescue Plan. People were left out and felt that the government wasn't working for them. If you called the IRS, only 13% of your calls were being answered. We got that back up to 85% before we left. Ultimately, I think part of this is an execution challenge. In government we want to spend money coming up with new policies, but we don't want to pay for execution, which then means that when you get the policy passed, implementation isn't great.When Jen Pahlka was on your show, she talked about the need to focus on identifying the enablers to implementation. Direct File was one of the best examples of us taking implementation very seriously.But also, on some policy issues that mattered most to Americans, we weren't advancing the types of strategies that would've helped lower the cost of housing and lowering the cost of medicine. We did some things there, but there's clearly more that we could have done, and more we need to do going forward to demonstrate that we're fighting to bring down those costs. It's everything from permitting reform — not just at the federal level, but what can we do to incentivize it at the state and local level — to thinking about what we can do on drug costs. Why does it cost so much more to get a medicine in America than in Canada? That is something that we can solve. We've just chosen not to at the federal level.At the end of the year, we were going to take action to go after some of the middlemen in the pharmacy industry who were taking out rents and large amounts of money. It dropped out of the bill because of the negotiations between the Republican Congress and then President-elect Trump. But there are a lot of things that we can do both on implementation, which will mean that Americans feel the programs that we're passing in a more effective way, and policy solutions that we need to advance as a party that will help us as well.Kyla: Some people think Americans tend to vote against their own self-interest. How can your party message to people that these sorts of policies are really important for them?Ultimately, what I found is that most people just understand their self-interest differently, and for them, a big part of this was, “Who's fighting for me on the issues that I care most about?”From my standpoint, part of the problem we had with Direct File, which I think was an innovative solution, was that we got to implementing it so late in the administration that we didn't have the ability for it to show the impact. I'm hoping future administrations will think through how to start their implementation journey on things like Direct File sooner in the administration, when you have a great deal of political capital, so people can actually feel the impact over time.To your question, it's not just about the messaging, it's about the messenger. People tend to trust people who look like them, who come from the places they come from. When it came to the Child Tax Credit and also to Direct File, the biggest innovation wasn't the technology: the technology for Direct File has been used by the Australians, the British, and other countries for decades.The biggest innovation was us joining that technology with trusted people in communities who were going out to talk to people about those programs and building those relationships. That was something that the IRS hadn't done a great deal of. We invested a great deal in those community navigators who were helping us get people to trust the things the government was doing again, like the Child Tax Credit, like Direct File, so that they could use it.We often think that Washington is going to be able to give messages to the country that people are going to hear. But we're both in a more complicated media environment, where people are far more skeptical of things that come from people in Washington. So the best people to advocate for and celebrate the things that we're doing are people who are closer to the communities we're trying to reach. In product advertising today, more companies are looking to influencers to advertise things, rather than putting an ad on television, because people trust the people that they follow. The same is true for the things that we do in government.Santi: I've talked to colleagues of yours in the last administration who say things like, “In the White House, we did not have a good enough sense of the shot clock.” They point to various reasons, including COVID, as a reason the admin didn't do a good enough job of prioritization.Do you think that's true, that across the administration, there was a missing sense of the shot clock or a missing sense of prioritization? No, because I'm a Lakers fan. These are professionals. We're professionals. This is not our first rodeo. We know how much time is on the shot clock; we played this game. The challenge wasn't just COVID. For me at Treasury — and I think this is the coolest part of being Deputy Secretary of the Treasury — I had responsibilities domestic and international. As I'm trying to modernize the IRS, to invest all my time in making the system work better for customers and to collect more taxes from the people who owe money, Russia invades Ukraine. I had to turn a bunch of my attention to thinking about what we were going to do there. Then you have Hamas attacking Israel.There was more we should have done on the domestic end, but we have to remember that part of the presidency is: you get to do the things you want to do, but you also have to do the things you have to do. We had a lot of things we had to do that we weren't planning for which required all-of-the-administration responses.I think the most important lesson I've learned about that is that it comes down to both being focused on the things that matter, and being willing to communicate to the American people why your priorities have to change in light of things that happen in the world.But the people I'm sure you've talked to, most of them work on domestic policy alone, and they probably never have been in a National Security Council meeting, where you're thinking about the risks to the country. The president has to do both of those things. So I get how difficult it is to do that, just given where I sat at the Treasury Department.Santi: Looking back from an implementation perspective, are there things you would've done differently during your time at Treasury?The most important thing that I would've done differently was to immediately set up a permanent implementation and delivery unit in the Treasury Department. We always like to pretend like the Treasury Department is just a policy department where we make policy, we collect taxes. But in any crisis the country ever has, a great deal of responsibility — for execution or implementation of whatever the response is — falls to the Treasury Department. Think about the financial crisis, which is clearly something that's in the Treasury's domain. The vast majority of money for COVID flowed through the Treasury Department. You think about the IRA, a climate bill: the vast majority of that money flows through the Treasury Department.And Treasury doesn't have a dedicated staff that's just focused on implementation: How do we do this well? How do we make sure the right people are served? How do we make sure that we communicate this well? We did this to a degree by a team that was focused on the American Rescue Plan. But it was only focused on the American Rescue Plan. If I could start again, I would have said, “I want a permanent implementation structure within the Treasury Department of people who are cross-cutting, who only think about how we execute the policies that we pass through Congress and that we put together through an executive order. How do we do that extremely well?”Kyla: What you're talking about is very people-centric: How do we get an implementation team, and how do we make sure that the right people are doing the right jobs? Now we have DOGE, which is less people-centric. How do you reconcile what Doge is doing relative to what you would've done differently in this role that you had?As you would suspect, I wasn't excited about the fact we had lost the election, but initially I thought DOGE could be helpful with technology. I think marrying technology with people — that's the key to success for the government. We've never really been great at doing technology in the government.Part of the reason for that is a procurement process that is very slow because of how the federal acquisition rules work. What we are trying to do is prevent corruption and also waste, fraud, and abuse. But what that does is, it leads to slowness in our ability to get the technology on board that we need, and in getting the right people.I was hoping DOGE would bring in people who knew a great deal about technology and put us in a position where we could use that to build better products for the American people. I thought they would love Direct File, and that they would find ways to improve Direct File and expand it to more Americans.My view is that any American in the working class or middle class should not have to pay a company to file their taxes. We have the ability in this country, and I think Direct File was proving that. My goal, if we'd had more time, was to expand this to almost any American being able to use it. I thought they'd be able to accelerate that by bringing in the right people, but also the right technology. We were on that path before they took those two things apart.My sense is that you have to reform the way that we hire people because it's too hard to hire the right people. In some cases, you don't need some of the people you have today because technology is going to require different skills to do different things. It's easier to break something, I found, than it is to build something. I think that's what they're finding today as well.Santi: When I talk to left-of-center folks about the DOGE push, they tend to be skeptical about the idea that AI or modern technology can replace existing federal workers. I think some of that is a natural backlash to the extreme partisan coding of DOGE, and the fact that they're firing a lot of people very quickly. But what's your view? After DOGE, what kinds of roles would you like to see automated?Let me say: I disagree with the view that DOGE and technology can't replace some of the things that federal workers do today. My view is that “productivity enhancing” tech — it's not that it is going to make employees who are currently doing the job more productive. It is going to mean you need fewer employees. We have to be honest about that.Go to the IRS, for example. When I got there, we had a huge paper backlog at the IRS because, despite what most people think, millions of people still file their taxes by paper, and they send them to the IRS. And during the pandemic, the commissioner, who was then working for President Trump, decided to shut down the IRS for public health reasons — to make sure employees did not have to risk getting COVID.There were piles of paper backing up, so much so that they had filled cafeterias at the IRS facilities with huge piles of paper. The problem, of course, is that, unlike modern systems, you could not just machine-read those papers and put them into our systems. Much of that required humans to code those papers into the system by hand. There is no need in the 21st century for that to happen, so one of the things that we started to do was introduce this simple thing called scanning, where you would scan the papers — I know it sounds like a novel idea. That would help you get people's tax returns faster into the system, but also get checks out quickly, and allow us to see if people are underpaying their taxes, because we can use that data with a modern system. But over time, what would that mean? We'd need fewer people to enter the data from those forms.When we get money for the IRS from Congress, it is actually seen as revenue-raising because they expect it to bring down the debt and deficit, which is completely true. But the model Congress uses to do that is reliant on the number of full-time employees we hire. One challenge we have with the IRS — and in government systems in general — is that you don't get credit for technology investments that should improve your return on investment.So whenever we did the ROI calculations for the IRS, the Congressional Budget Office would calculate how much revenue we'd bring in, and it was always based on the number of people you had doing enforcement work that would lead to certain dollars coming in. So we got no credit for the technology investments. Which was absolutely the opposite of what we knew would be true: the more you invested in technology, the more likely you were to bring in more revenue, and you would be able to cut the cost of employees.Santi: If the CBO changed the way it scored technology improvements, would more Congresspeople be interested in funding technology?It is just a CBO issue. It's one we've tried to talk to them about over the last several years, but one where they've been unwilling to move. My view is that unlocking this will unlock greater investment in technology in a place like the IRS, because every dollar you invest in technology — I think — would earn back $10 in additional tax revenue we'd be able to collect from people who are skipping out on their taxes today. It's far more valuable to invest in that technology than to grow the number of employees working in enforcement at the IRS. You need both, but you can't say that a person is worth 5x their salary in revenue and that technology is worth 0. That makes no sense.Kyla: When we spoke about Direct File many months ago, people in my comment section were super excited and saying things like, “I just want the government to tell me how much money I owe.” When you think about the implementation of Direct File, what went right, and how do you think it has evolved?The thing that went right was that we proved that we could build something quite easily, and we built it ourselves, unlike many technology projects in government. We didn't go out and hire a bunch of consultants and contractors to do it. We did it with people at the IRS, but also with people from 18F and from GSA who worked in the government. We did it in partnership with a number of stakeholders outside the government who gave us advice, but the build was done by us.The reason that was important — and the reason it's important to build more things internally rather than hiring consulting firms or other people to build it — is that you then have the intellectual capital from building that, and that can be used to build other things. This was one product, but my view is that I want the IRS home page to one day look a lot more like the screen on your iPhone, so that you can click on the app on the IRS homepage that can help you, depending on what you need — if it's a Direct File, or if it's a tax transcript.By building Direct File internally, we were getting closer to that, and the user scores on the effectiveness of the tool and the ability to use it were through the roof. Even for a private sector company, it would've been seen as a great success. In the first year, we launched late in the filing season, mostly just to test the product, but also to build stakeholder support for it. In the limited release, 140,000 people used it. The average user said that before Direct File, it took them about 13 hours to file their taxes, and with Direct File, it took them just over an hour to file their taxes.But you also have to think about how much money the average American spends filing their taxes: about $200. That's $200 that a family making under $100,000 could invest in their kids, in paying some bills, rather than in filing their taxes.Even this year, with no advertising by the Trump administration of Direct File, we had more than 300,000 people use it. The user scores for the product were above 85%. The challenge, of course, is that instead of DOGE investing in improving the product — which was a place where you could have seen real intellectual capital go to work and make something that works for all Americans — they've decided to discontinue Direct File. [NB: There has been widespread reporting that the administration plans to discontinue Direct File. The GOP tax bill passed by the House would end Direct File if it becomes law. At the time of publication, the Direct File has not been discontinued.]The sad part is that when you think about where we are as a country, this is a tool that could both save people money, save people time, improve our ability to collect taxes, and is something that exists in almost every other developed economy. It makes no sense to me why you would end something like this rather than continue to develop it.Santi: People remember the failure of healthcare.gov, which crashed when it was rolled out all at once to everyone in the country. It was an embarrassing episode for the Obama administration, and political actors in that administration learned they had to pilot things and roll them out in phases.Is there a tension between that instinct — to test things slowly, to roll them out to a select group of users, and then to add users in following cycles — Is there a tension between that and trying to implement quickly, so that people see the benefit of the work you're doing?One of my bosses in the Obama administration was Jeff Zients, the person who was brought in to fix healthcare.gov. He relentlessly focused on execution. He always made the point that it's easy to come up with a strategy to some degree: you can figure out what the policy solution is. But the difference between good and great is how you execute against it. I think there is some tension there, but not as much as you would think.Once we were able to show that the pilot was a success, I got invited to states all over the country, like Maryland, to announce that they were joining Direct File the next year. These members of Congress wanted to do Direct File events telling people in their state, “This product that's worked so well elsewhere is coming to us next.” It gave us the ability to celebrate the success.I learned the lesson not just from Zients, but also from then-professor Elizabeth Warren, whom I worked for as chief of staff at the CFPB. One challenge we had at the CFPB was to build a complaint hotline, at that point mostly phone-operated, for people who were suffering. They said it would take us at least a year to build out all the product functions we need. We decided to take a modular approach and say, “How long would it take for us to build the system for one product? Let's try that and see how that works. We'll do a test.”It was successful, and we were able to use that to tell the story about the CFPB and what it would do, not just for mortgages, but for all these other products. We built user interest in the complaint hotline, in a way that we couldn't have if we'd waited to build the whole thing at once. While I think you're right that there is some tension between getting everyone to feel it right away and piloting; if the pilot is successful, it also gives you the opportunity to go out and sell this thing to people and say, “Here's what people who did the pilot are saying about this product.”I remember someone in Texas who was willing to do a direct-to-camera and talk about the ways that Direct File was so easy for them to use. It gets back to my point on message and messenger. Deputy Secretary Adeyemo telling you about this great thing the government did is one thing. But an American who looks like you, who's a nurse, who's a mom of two kids, telling you that this product actually worked for her: That's something that more people identify with.Healthcare.gov taught us the lesson of piloting and doing things in a modular way. This is what companies have been doing for decades. If it's worked for them, I think it can work for the government too.Santi: I'm a fan of Direct File, personally. I don't want this administration to kill it. But I was looking through some of the criticism that Direct File got: for instance, there's criticism about it rivaling the IRS Free File program, which is another IRS program that partners with nonprofits to help some folks file their taxes for free.Then there's this broader philosophical criticism: “I don't want the feds telling me how much I owe them.” The idea is that the government is incentivized to squeeze every last dollar out of you.I'm curious what you make of that, in part because I spoke recently to an American who worked on building e-government systems for Estonia. One of the things that has allowed Estonia to build cutting-edge digital systems in the government is that Estonia is a small and very high-trust society. Everybody's one degree of separation from everybody else.We're a much bigger and more diverse country. How do you think that affects the federal government's ability to build tools like Direct File?I think it affects it a lot, and it gets back to my point: not just the message but the messenger. I saw this not just with Direct File, but with the Advanced Child Tax Credit, which was intended to help kids who were living in poverty, but also families overall. What we found initially in the data was that, among families that didn't have to file taxes because they made too little, many of them were unwilling to take advantage of Direct File and the Advanced Child Tax Credit because they couldn't believe the government was doing something to just help them. I spent a lot of time with priests, pastors, and other community leaders in many of the communities where people were under-filing to try and get them to talk about this program and why it was something that they should apply for.One of the challenges we suffer from right now in America, overall, is a lack of trust in institutions. You have to really go local and try to rebuild that trust.That also speaks to taking a pilot approach that goes slower in some cases. Some of the criticism we got was, “Why don't you just fill out this form for us and then just send it to us, so that Direct File is just me pressing a button so I can pay my taxes?”Part of the challenge for us in doing that is a technology challenge: we are not there technologically. But the other problem is a trust problem. If I were to just fill out your taxes for you and send them to you, I think people, at this stage, would distrust the government and distrust the technology.Direct File had to be on a journey with people, showing people, “If I put in this information, it accurately sends me back my check.” As people develop more trust, we can also add more features to it that I think people will trust. But the key has to be: how do you earn that trust over time?We can't expect that if we put out a product that looks like something the Estonian government or Australia would put out, that people would trust it at this point. We have to realize that we are on a journey to regain the trust of the American people.The government can and will work for them, and Direct File was a part of that. We started to demonstrate that with that product because the people who used it in these communities became the spokespeople for it in a better way than I ever could be, than the Secretary or the President could be.Everyone knows that they need to pay their taxes because it's part of their responsibility living in this country. The things that make people the most upset is the fact that there are people who don't pay their taxes. We committed that we were going to go after them.The second frustration was: “Why do you make it so hard for me to pay my taxes? Why can't I get through to you on the phone line? Why do I have to pay somebody else to do my taxes?” Our goal was to solve those two problems by investing money and going after the people who just decided they weren't going to pay, but also by making it as easy as possible for you to pay your taxes and for most people, to get that tax refund as quickly as possible.But doing that was about going on a journey with people, about regaining their trust in an institution that mattered to them a great deal because 90 something-percent of the money that funds our government comes in through the IRS.Kyla: You have a piece out in Foreign Affairs called “Make Moscow Pay,” and what I found most interesting about that essay is that you said Europe needs to step it up because the United States won't. Talk through the role of Treasury in financial sanctions, and your reasons for writing this piece.People often think about the Treasury Department as doing a few things. One is working with Wall Street; another one is collecting your taxes. Most people don't think about the fact that the Treasury Department is a major part of the National Security Committee, because we have these tools called financial sections.They use the power of the dollar to try and change the behavior of foreign actors who are taking steps that aren't consistent with our national security interests. A great example of this is what we did with regard to Russia — saying that we're going to cut off Russian banks from the US financial system, which means that you can't transact in US dollars.The problem for any bank that can transact in dollars is that the backbone of most of the financial world is built on the US dollar. It increases their cost, it makes it more difficult for them to transact, and makes it harder for them to be part of the global economy, nearly impossible.And that's what we've done in lots of cases when it comes to Russia. We have financial sanction programs that touch all over the world, from Venezuela to Afghanistan. The US government, since 9/11, has used sanctions as one of its primary tools of impacting foreign policy. Some of them have gone well, some of them I think haven't gone as well, and there's a need for us to think through how we use those policies.Santi: What makes sanctions an effective tool? Positions on sanctions don't line up neatly on partisan lines. Sanctions have a mixed track record, and you'll have Republicans who say sanctions have failed, and you'll have Democrats say sanctions have been an effective tool, and vice versa.The way I think about sanctions is that they are intended to bring change, and the only way that they work is that they're part of an overarching foreign policy strategy. That type of behavior change was what we saw when Iran came to the table and wanted to negotiate a way to reduce sanctions in exchange for limits on their nuclear program. That's the type of behavior change we're trying to accomplish with sanctions, but you can't do it with sanctions alone. You need a foreign policy strategy. We didn't do it by the United States confronting Iran; we got our allies and partners to work together with us. When I came into office in 2021, Secretary Yellen asked me to do a review of our sanctions policies — what's worked, what hasn't — because it had been 20 years since the 9/11 attacks.And the most important lesson I learned was that the sanctions programs that were the most effective were the ones we did on a multilateral basis — so we did it with our friends and allies. Part of the reason for this is that while the dollar is the most dominant currency around the world, oftentimes if you can't do something in dollars, you do it in a euro, or you do it in a Japanese yen, or pound sterling.The benefit of having allies all over the world is that the dominant, convertible currencies in the world are controlled by allies and partners. When we acted together with them, we were more effective in curtailing the economic activity of our adversary, and our pressure is more likely to lead to them changing their behavior.We had to be very cautious about collateral damage. You might be targeting an individual, but by targeting that individual, you might make it harder for a company they're affiliated with to continue doing business, or for a country that they're in to get access to banking services. Let's say that you're a huge bank in America, and you're worried about sanctions risk in a small country where you do little business. Why not pull out, rather than having to put in place a huge compliance program? One of the challenges that we have is that the people who make the decisions about whether to extend sanctions don't necessarily spend a lot of time thinking about some of these economic consequences of the sanctions approach.Whenever I was around the table and we were making a decision about using weapons, there was a process that was very elaborate that ended up with something going to the president. You'd often think about kinetic force very seriously, because you were going to have to get the president to make a decision. We didn't always take that kind of rigor when it came to thinking about using our sanctions policy, but the impact on the lives of people in these countries was just as significant for their access to not only money, but to food and to the resources they needed to live.Santi: What do you make of the effectiveness of the initial sanctions on Russia after the invasion of Ukraine? I've heard mixed reviews from folks inside and outside the Biden administration.Sanctions, again, to my point, are only a tool. They've had to be part of a larger strategy, and I think those sanctions were quite effective. I think the saving grace for the Russians has been the fact that China has largely been able and willing to give them access to the things they need to continue to perpetuate.There was a choice for Ukraine, but when you think about Russia's economy today vs. Russia's economy before the sanctions were put in place, it's vastly different. Inflation in Russia still runs far higher than inflation anywhere else in the world. If you were a Russian citizen, you would feel the impacts of sanctions.The challenge, of course, is that it hasn't changed Vladimir Putin's behavior or the behavior of the Kremlin, largely because they've had access to the goods and supplies they need from China, Iran, and North Korea. But over time, it means Russia's economy is becoming less competitive. They have less access to resources; they're going to struggle.I think everyone hoped that sanctions would immediately change the calculus of the Kremlin, but we've never seen that to be the case. When sanctions are effective, they take time, because the economic consequences continue to compound over time, and they have to be part of a larger strategy for the behavior of the individual. That's why I wrote the article, because while the Kremlin and Russia are under pressure, their view is that ultimately the West is going to get tired of supporting Ukraine, financially and politically, because the economic consequences for us — while not as significant as for Moscow or for Kiev — have been quite significant, when you think about the cost of living issues in Europe.I think it's important to write this now, when it appears that Russia is stalling on negotiations, because ultimately, US financial support is waning. We just know that the Trump administration is not willing to put more money into Ukraine, so Europe is going to have to do more, at a time when their economic situation is quite complicated as well.They've got a lot to do to build up their economy and their military-industrial base. Asking them to also increase their support for Ukraine at the same time is going to be quite difficult. So using this money that Russia owes to Ukraine — because they owe them compensation at this moment — can be quite influential in helping support the Ukrainians, but also changing Russia's calculus with regard to the ability of Ukraine to sustain itself.Kyla: On CNBC about a month ago, you said if we ever have a recession over the next couple of months or so, it would be a self-inflicted one. Do you still resonate with that idea? To build on the point I was making, the economy has done quite well over the course of the first few months of the year, largely because of the strength of the consumer, where our balance sheets are still quite strong. Companies in America have done well. The biggest headwind the US economy faces has been self-inflicted by the tariffs the president has put on. Part of what I still do is talk to CEOs of companies, big and small. Small businesses feel the impact of this even more than the big businesses. What they tell me is that it's not just the tariffs and the fact that they are making it more expensive for them to get the goods that they need, but it's the uncertainty created by the off-again, on-again, nature of those tariffs that makes it impossible for them to plan for what supplies they're going to get the next quarter. How are they going to fulfill their orders? What employees are they going to need? It's having a real impact on the performance of these companies, but also their ability to hire people and plan for the future.If you go to the grocery store, you're going to start seeing — and you're starting to see already — price increases. The thing that Americans care most about is, the cost of living is just too high. You're at the grocery store, as you're shopping for your kids for the summer, you're going to see costs go up because of a self-imposed tax we've put in place. So I still do think that if we do find ourselves in a recession, it's going to be because of the tariffs we've put in place.Even if we don't enter a technical recession, what we're seeing now is that those tariffs are going to raise the cost for people when they go out to buy things. It's going to raise the cost of building homes, which is going to make it harder for people to get houses, which is ultimately going to have an impact on the economy that isn't what I think the president or anyone wants at this point.Kyla: Is there anything else we haven't asked about? I think the place where we continue, as a country, to struggle is that, given the federal system we have, many of these problems aren't just in Washington — they're in state and local governments as well. When you think about the challenges to building more housing in this country, you can't just solve it by doing things at the federal level. You have to get state and local governments unified in taking a proactive approach. Part of this has to be not just financial or regulatory from the federal government, but we have to do more things that force state and local governments to get out of the way of people being able to build more housing. I think that the conversations that you've had on your show, and the conversations we're having in government, need to move past our regular policy conversations of: “Should we do more on LIHTC? Should we try to fix NEPA?” Those, to me, are table stakes, and we're in the middle of what I'd say is a generational crisis when it comes to housing. We have to be willing to treat it like a crisis, rather than what I think we've done so far, which is take incremental steps at different levels to try and solve this. That's one thing that I wanted to make sure that I said, because I think it's the most important thing that we can do at the moment.Kyla: Absolutely. During your time there, the Treasury was doing so much with zoning reform, with financial incentives. What I really liked about our last conversation was how much you talked about how important it is that workers can live close to work. Are you optimistic that we will be able to address the problem, or do you think we are sinking into quicksand?I'd say a little bit of both, and the thing that I'm doing now is getting hyperlocal. One of the projects I'm working on in my post-administration life is I'm working with 15 churches in D.C., where they have vacant land and want to use it to build affordable housing as quickly as possible.I'm learning that even when you have the land donated for free and you're willing to work as quickly as possible, it's still quite hard because you have regulations and financial issues that often get in the way of building things. Part of what we have to do now is just launch as many natural experiments as possible to see what works.What I've learned already from this lived experience is that even cities that are trying to get out of the way and make it easier to build housing struggle because of what you all know to be true, which is that the local politics of this is quite complicated. Oftentimes, the way that you get them over the line is by creating incentives or disincentives.In the past, I talked a lot about incentives in terms of “giving people money to do things.” I'm now in favor of “not giving money to people who don't do things” — if you don't take steps to fix your zoning, some of the federal money that you regularly get is not coming to your jurisdiction. I'm going to reallocate that money to places that are doing this activity. I think we have to take those types of radical steps.It's similar to what we did with the Emergency Rental Assistance Program, where if you didn't spend your money, we could take your money back and reallocate it to people who were giving away emergency rental assistance money.That motivates people a lot — when they feel like something's going to be taken away from them. I'm of the view that we have to find more radical things that we can do to get housing built. If we don't, costs will continue to rise faster than people's incomes.Santi: Wally, I have to ask after that point you just made: did you read the paper by my colleague Chris Elmendorf on using LIHTC funds? The idea is to re-allocate those federal funds away from big, expensive cities and into other places in a state, if the cities don't commit to basic zoning reforms.I completely agree with him, and I think I would go even further than just LIHTC money. I would reallocate non-housing money as well, because from my standpoint, if you think about the most important issue for a family, it's being able to find housing that is affordable near their place of work and where their kids go to school. I said that on purpose. I didn't say “affordable housing.” I said “housing that is affordable,” because affordable housing is, in lots of ways, targeted towards a population of people who need it the most. But for even people who are middle income in this country, it crowds out their ability to pay for other things when housing costs continue to creep higher.The only way we solve that problem is if you get rid of restrictive zoning covenants and fix permitting. The natural thing that every city and state is thinking about right now is throwing more money at the problem. There's going to need to be money here, just in light of some of the headwinds, but it's going to be more costly and less effective if we don't fix the underlying issues that are making it hard to build housing where we want it.Right now in California, we're having a huge debate over what we do with infill housing in urban areas. A simple solution — you don't have to do another environmental review if one was already done in this area— is taking months to work through the California legislature, which demonstrates that we're going too slow. California's seeing an exodus of people. I just talked to a CEO who said, “I'm moving my business because the people who work for me can't afford to live in California anymore.” This is the kind of problem that you can solve. State legislatures, Congress, and executives have to get together and take some radical steps to make it easier to build housing.I appreciate what you said about what we were doing at Treasury, but from my standpoint, I wish we had done more earlier to focus on this issue. We had a lot going on, but fundamentally, the most important thing on housing is taking a step to try and build housing today, which is going to have an impact on the economy 10, 20, 30 years from now. We just have to start doing that as soon as possible.Thanks to Emma Hilbert for her transcript and audio edits. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.statecraft.pub

covid-19 united states america ceo american california texas canada president donald trump australia europe ai israel china house washington talk state americans british west russia joe biden ukraine australian japanese russian iphone barack obama healthcare congress white house afghanistan maryland iran wall street republicans ceos companies vladimir putin democrats los angeles lakers inflation roi venezuela secretary ukrainian moscow north korea irs hamas gop chief operating officer kyiv democratic party treasury doge positions estonia atm elizabeth warren sanctions kremlin foreign affairs inflation reduction act national security council treasury department estonian cbo deputy secretary american rescue plan gsa turbotax cea cfpb child tax credit screwtape letters congressional budget office cobol nepa national economic council statecraft obama foundation republican congress jared bernstein 18f congresspeople kyla scanlon lihtc secretary yellen nb there wally adeyemo emergency rental assistance program

Name SCOTUS Skeptical of Trump Admin's Plan to Limit Birthright Citizenship

donald trump economy limit sean combs msnbc scotus skeptical amb birthright citizenship trump admin steven levitsky emily bazelon jared bernstein ari melber gordon sondland

Play Episode Listen Later May 15, 2025 41:28

MSNBC's Ari Melber hosts "The Beat" on Thursday, May 15, and reports on SCOTUS hearing arguments in President Trump's birthright citizenship case, new fallout from Trump's trade war and the latest developments in the Diddy trial. Amb. Gordon Sondland, Jared Bernstein, Emily Bazelon and Steven Levitsky join.

1346 Economist Dean Baker + News and Clips

Stand Up! with Pete Dominick

Play Episode Listen Later May 1, 2025 51:04

Stand Up is a daily podcast that I book,host,edit, post and promote new episodes with brilliant guests every day. Please subscribe now for as little as 5$ and gain access to a community of over 700 awesome, curious, kind, funny, brilliant, generous souls Check out StandUpwithPete.com to learn more Dean Baker co-founded CEPR in 1999. His areas of research include housing and macroeconomics, intellectual property, Social Security, Medicare, and European labor markets. His blog, Beat the Press, provides commentary on economic reporting. His analyses have appeared in many major publications, including The Atlantic, The Washington Post, the Financial Times (London), and the New York Daily News. Dean received his BA from Swarthmore College and his PhD in economics from the University of Michigan. Dean has written several books, including Getting Back to Full Employment: A Better Bargain for Working People (with Jared Bernstein, Center for Economic and Policy Research, 2013); The End of Loser Liberalism: Making Markets Progressive (Center for Economic and Policy Research, 2011); Taking Economics Seriously (MIT Press, 2010), which thinks through what we might gain if we took the ideological blinders off of basic economic principles; and False Profits: Recovering from the Bubble Economy (PoliPoint Press, 2010), about what caused — and how to fix — the 2008–2009 economic crisis. In 2009, he wrote Plunder and Blunder: The Rise and Fall of the Bubble Economy (PoliPoint Press), which chronicled the growth and collapse of the stock and housing bubbles and explained how policy blunders and greed led to catastrophic — but completely predictable — market meltdowns. He also wrote a chapter (“From Financial Crisis to Opportunity”) in Thinking Big: Progressive Ideas for a New Era (Progressive Ideas Network, 2009). His previous books include The United States Since 1980 (Cambridge University Press, 2007), The Conservative Nanny State: How the Wealthy Use the Government to Stay Rich and Get Richer (Center for Economic and Policy Research, 2006), and Social Security: The Phony Crisis (with Mark Weisbrot, University of Chicago Press, 1999). His book Getting Prices Right: The Debate Over the Consumer Price Index (editor, M.E. Sharpe, 1997) was a winner of a Choice Book Award as one of the outstanding academic books of the year. Among his numerous articles are “The Benefits of a Financial Transactions Tax,” Tax Notes 121, no. 4 (2008); “Are Protective Labor Market Institutions at the Root of Unemployment? A Critical Review of the Evidence” (with David R. Howell, Andrew Glyn, and John Schmitt), Capitalism and Society 2, no. 1 (2007); “Asset Returns and Economic Growth,” with Brad DeLong and Paul Krugman, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2005); “Financing Drug Research: What Are the Issues,” Center for Economic and Policy Research (2004); “Medicare Choice Plus: The Solution to the Long-Term Deficit Problem,” Center for Economic and Policy Research (2004); “Professional Protectionists: The Gains From Free Trade in Highly Paid Professional Services,” Center for Economic and Policy Research (2003); and “The Run-Up in Home Prices: Is It Real or Is It Another Bubble?,” Center for Economic and Policy Research (2002). Dean previously worked as a senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute and an assistant professor at Bucknell University. He has also worked as a consultant for the World Bank, the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress, and the OECD's Trade Union Advisory Council. He was the author of the weekly online commentary on economic reporting, the Economic Reporting Review, from 1996 to 2006. Join us Monday's and Thursday's at 8EST for our Bi-Weekly Happy Hour Hangout! Pete on Blue Sky Pete on Threads Pete on Tik Tok Pete on YouTube Pete on Twitter Pete On Instagram Pete Personal FB page Stand Up with Pete FB page All things Jon Carroll Follow and Support Pete Coe Buy Ava's Art Hire DJ Monzyk to build your website or help you with Marketing

What is the real cost of cheap goods from China?

Here & Now

Play Episode Listen Later May 1, 2025 23:22

As President Trump's tariffs take effect, many American consumers will have to wean themselves off cheap goods made in China. Former President Joe Biden's economic adviser Jared Bernstein joins us for more. And, as climate change makes heavy rainfall in London more frequent, Here & Now's Chris Bentley reports on the city's "super sewer" system, designed to keep sewage out of the Thames River. Then, Here & Now's James Mastromarino discusses three surprising video game hits: an unexpected remaster of "The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion," the French RPG "Clair Obscur: Expedition 33," and indie puzzle game "Blue Prince."Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

american donald trump china cheap goods made in china real cost elder scrolls iv oblivion jared bernstein thames river chris bentley

U.S. Economy Shrinks Under Trump

donald trump elon musk economy msnbc shrinks jared bernstein ari melber julian zelizer

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 30, 2025 41:25

MSNBC's Ari Melber hosts "The Beat" on Wednesday, April 30, and reports on Donald Trump's economy, his challenges to the rule of law, Elon Musk in Trump's first 100 days and Trump's attempted shakedown of prominent U.S. institutions. Teddy Schleifer, Jared Bernstein, and Julian Zelizer join.

The Weekend April 20 9a: “Put Up Or Shut Up”

The Weekend

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 20, 2025 40:04

Aisha Braveboy, the State's Attorney for Prince George's County, Maryland, joins to discuss the tools at her disposal to hold people accountable for the mistaken deportation of Kilmar Abrego Garcia. Plus, former Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers Jared Bernstein on the new lawsuits facing Trump for his economy-tanking tariff regime.

Jared Bernstein's Head is Spinning

Moody's Talks - Inside Economics

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 11, 2025 73:54

The Inside Economics team is joined by the former chair of the White House's Council of Economic Advisors, Jared Bernstein. Jared shares his evaluation of what has been a whirlwind few weeks for the global economy. With a healthy dose of humility, the group then debates where things might be headed in the U.S.-China trade war as well as which country they see as possessing more leverage. The group is also joined by Martin Wurm and Matt Colyar to discuss recent financial market volatility and the latest inflation data.Guest: Jared Bernstein, Former Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors under Joe BidenFor more from Jared Bernstein, check out his Substack: https://econjared.substack.com/Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Stocks Have Worst Two Day Dive Since COVID

covid-19 donald trump dive economy immigration stocks msnbc stock market tarrifs chad wolf jared bernstein ari melber melber

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 4, 2025 40:47

MSNBC's Ari Melber hosts "The Beat" on Friday, April 4, and reports on the stock market plummet as Donald Trump's tariffs continue to shock global trade for the second day. Plus, Melber is joined by former Trump aide Chad Wolf to discuss Trump's immigration policies. Jared Bernstein also joins.

The Daily Blast: Trump Hit by Two Brutal Polls on Econ as GOP Tariff Panic Goes Nuclear

Deep State Radio

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 1, 2025 20:21

President Donald Trump is set to announce that he'll impose sweeping new global tariffs on imports, and Congressional Republicans are already scrambling wildly to try to shield their states and districts from the fallout. Meanwhile, a Fox News poll finds that Trump is sliding on the economy, with the public turning against tariffs in particular. And an Associated Press survey also has terrible news for Trump on this front. Notably, all these negative consequences kicked in well before the tariffs have even started. We talked to Jared Bernstein, former chair of President Biden's Council of Economic Advisers and now a visiting scholar at Stanford, who has a new piece on his Substack predicting the consequences could be dire. He explains why the tariffs are so wrongheaded—and why they're likely to cause major backlash against Trump and his party. Looking for More from the DSR Network? Click Here: https://linktr.ee/deepstateradio Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

donald trump joe biden council stanford panic fox news substack nuclear tariffs blast brutal polls econ associated press notably economic advisers congressional republicans jared bernstein

Trump Hit by Two Brutal Polls on Econ as GOP Tariff Panic Goes Nuclear

THE DAILY BLAST with Greg Sargent

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 1, 2025 20:21

donald trump joe biden council stanford panic fox news substack nuclear tariffs brutal polls econ associated press notably economic advisers congressional republicans jared bernstein

The Daily Blast: Trump Hit by Two Brutal Polls on Econ as GOP Tariff Panic Goes Nuclear

Deep State Radio

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 1, 2025 20:21

donald trump joe biden council stanford panic fox news substack nuclear tariffs blast brutal polls econ associated press notably economic advisers congressional republicans jared bernstein

Trump on defense over tariffs as markets plunge

donald trump elon musk defense grammy markets msnbc tariffs doge plunge lupe fiasco rick wilson jared bernstein ari melber melber

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 12, 2025 41:21

MSNBC's Ari Melber hosts "The Beat" on Tuesday, March 11, and reports on the stock market plunge and Donald Trump's "triple legal blow." Plus, Grammy-winning artist Lupe Fiasco joins Melber. Jared Bernstein, Rick Wilson and Leslie Caldwell join.

Munk Debates Podcast: Trump's trade wars with Jared Bernstein and Oren Cass

The Munk Debates Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 7, 2025 42:05

Can Trump's trade policies and US protectionism bring economic gains to the middle and working class? On this episode we hear from two people with vastly different perspectives: President Biden's former economic advisor Jared Bernstein, and American Compass Executive Director Oren Cass, whose thinking on these issues have influenced a number of younger Republican politicians such as Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley and most importantly, Vice President J.D. Vance. The host of the Munk Debates is Rudyard Griffiths To support civil and substantive debate on the big questions of the day, consider becoming a Munk Member at https://munkdebates.com/membership Members receive access to our 15+ year library of great debates in HD video, a free Munk Debates book, newsletter and ticketing privileges at our live events. This podcast is a project of the Munk Debates, a Canadian charitable organization dedicated to fostering civil and substantive public dialogue - https://munkdebates.com/ Senior Producer: Ricki Gurwitz Editor: Kieran Lynch

donald trump canadian joe biden republicans wars trade war josh hawley tom cotton can trump jared bernstein oren cass munk debates

Post-Bidenomics and what comes next

The New Bazaar

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 14, 2025 70:37

Joining Cardiff for this episode is Jared Bernstein, who was most recently the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors for President Joe Biden following a long career in economic policy and public service. Jared shares with Cardiff his thoughts on the current economic moment, the achievements he was most proud of during the Biden years, and a few regrets. They also discuss: How the econ policymaking sausage gets madeTrade policy, globalization with allies, and concerns about protectionismInflation challenges, including the impact of the American Rescue PlanUnions and worker bargaining powerThe housing supply crisis and the role of federal incentives for local reformsImmigrationAI's possible effects on labor and productivity How an early musical career led Jared to economicsRELATED LINKSJared's Substack newsletterJason Furman's Foreign Affairs articleJared's response to Furman2024 Economic Report of the PresidentEIG's analysis on “Manufacturing jobs boom not reaching places hit by the China Shock” Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

joe biden council acast manufacturing cardiff bidenomics economic advisors powerthe jared bernstein

Jared Bernstein Talks Inflation Fight; Trump Policies

Bloomberg Talks

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 16, 2025 11:11 Transcription Available

US Council of Economic Advisers Chair Jared Bernstein speaks on the fight against inflation, the Biden administration's relationship with the Fed, and Trump's economic policies. He speaks with Bloomberg's Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

donald trump joe biden inflation bloomberg fed policies jared bernstein us council

Lawrence: Biden's legacy will be ‘paying dividends' for decades to come

black donald trump joe biden harris paying delaware decades dividends adam schiff jared bernstein

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 11, 2024 44:37

Tonight on The Last Word: President Biden lays out the economic legacy that Donald Trump will inherit. Also, Adam Schiff is sworn in as a U.S. senator on Monday by Vice President Harris. And Lisa Blunt Rochester is elected as Delaware's first female senator and first Black senator. Jared Bernstein, Sen. Adam Schiff, and Sen.-elect Lisa Blunt Rochester join Lawrence O'Donnell.

Trump Nominees Vs Biden's Cabinet; DOGE: Government Reform | Ep 329

The Sean Spicer Show

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 21, 2024 47:38

A Democratic poll showed rather shocking result as 41% of people polled picked Kamala Harris, again! Coming in a distant 2nd was Gavin Newsom at 8%, Josh Shapiro at 7% and Pete Buttigieg at 6%. Maybe Democrats really took to heart "what she can be, unburdened by what has been." It looks like the MAHA movement is really taking shape in content consumption, 6 out of the top 10 shared podcasts on apple podcast were about health and wellness. What it really shows is that the American people are getting their information from different places and the legacy lies are crumbling away right before our eyes. Morning Joe hosts Joe and Mika are now joking they "could be fired anyday" as Comcast is looking to dump MSNBC as fast as they can. CNN and ABC aren't faring any better and it's only a matter of time before some of the top voices are on the chopping block. This was evident during The View as Sunny Hostin's rant about Matt Gaetz was immediately retracted with a legal message Sunny was forced to read. As the scrutiny about Trump's nominations continues, we here at the Sean Spicer Show have pulled up the qualifications of members of the current Biden administration. For example, Jared Bernstein, current Chair of Council of Economic Advisors, has a bachelor's degree in music and Mayorkas has no security background! DeSantis' move in Florida will help determine his future political aspirations, so keep an eye on how the chess pieces move around to fill Marco Rubio's empty seat. Last but certainly not least... This week's winners and losers! Featuring: Natalie Winters Co-Host | The War Room https://warroom.org/ Bradley Devlin Politics Editor | The Daily Signal https://www.dailysignal.com/ Larry O'Connor Host | O'Connor and Co. https://www.wmal.com/oconnor-company/ -- Trump may never do another rally so this may be your last chance to experience it for yourself! Front Row Joes: https://frontrowjoes.movie/ -- Sponsors: Wired 2 Fish Do you want to drink coffee from the finest coffee beans in the world? Wired 2 Fish sources directly from Mexico and Guatemala to bring you the freshest arabica coffee beans in the world. Wired 2 Fish cares so much about the earth that they give back 25% of their net profits to faith-based organizations and clean water initiatives. If you're a coffee lover and want to support a great company doing great work head to https://www.wired2fishcoffee.com/ use code: WECARE for 15% off your first order. Delta Rescue Visit Delta Rescue at: https://deltarescue.org/ and donate to one of the country's best, care for life, no-kill animal sanctuaries. 4Patriots Get a FREE solar panel when you purchase the Patriot Power Generator 2000X. Just goto https://4patriots.com/SPICER -- Subscribe and ring the bell for new videos: https://youtube.com/seanmspicer?sub_confirmation=1 Listen to the full audio show on all platforms: Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-sean-spicer-show/id1701280578 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/32od2cKHBAjhMBd9XntcUd iHeart: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/269-the-sean-spicer-show-120471641/ Become a part of The Sean Spicer Show community: https://www.seanspicer.com/ Follow The Sean Spicer Show on social media: Facebook: https://facebook.com/seanspicershow Twitter: https://twitter.com/seanspicershow Instagram: https://instagram.com/seanspicershow Stay in touch with Sean on social media: Facebook: https://facebook.com/seanmspicer Twitter: https://twitter.com/seanspicer Instagram: https://instagram.com/seanmspicer/ #politics #news #theseanspicershow #seanspicer #conservativemedia #podcast Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Tony Katz Today Full Show - 11/1/24

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 1, 2024 107:27

Hour 1 Segment 1 Tony starts the show talking about Jared Bernstein's comments about the economy in the final weekend before the election. Tony also talks more about Tony Hinchcliffe's joke about Puerto Rico and other elections. Hour 1 Segment 2 Tony talks about the Games of Thrones movie already in early development. Hour 1 Segment 3 Tony talks about Hugh Hewitt storming off a broadcast and resigning from the Washington Post. Tony also talks about voting in Pennsylvania. Hour 1 Segment 4 Tony wraps up the first hour of the show talking about Russian court fining Google. Hour 2 Segment 1 Tony starts the second hour of the show talking with Kira Davis, host of the Just Listen to Yourself podcast and occasional fill-in host for Tony, about Mark Cuban's comments on The View saying Donald Trump has never been around strong and intelligent women. Hour 2 Segment 2 Tony talks about CNN saying Joe Biden voters are turning back to Trump because of his policy, historic floods in Valencia, and art theft. Hour 2 Segment 3 Tony talks with Dr. Matt Will, economist at the University of Indianapolis, about the latest in the job market. Hour 2 Segment 4 Tony wraps up the second hour of the show talking about how every election is the most important election in your lifetime. Tony also talks about how CNN is concerned with how the election will affect the climate. Hour 3 Segment 1 Tony starts the final hour of his show talking with Susie Moore of RedState, and occasional fill-in host for Tony, about issues with voter fraud and how the right can avoid it for Tuesday's election. Hour 3 Segment 2 Tony talks about illegal ballot harvesting in Wisconsin. Hour 3 Segment 3 Tony is joined by Chris Stigall, host of Philadelphia's Morning Answer on 990 AM WNTP to talk about the latest voting and polling numbers in Pennsylvania. Hour 3 Segment 4 Tony wraps up another edition of the show by talking about 12,000 jobs produced under the Biden/Harris administration. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode 3425: Tony Katz Today Hour 1 - 11/1/24

google games russian pennsylvania washington post puerto rico thrones tony hinchcliffe hugh hewitt jared bernstein tony katz

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 1, 2024 35:22

White House Reacts to the jobs report…the future for VC post election… and then takeaway from this week's tech earnings. 11/01/24

CNBCâ€™s â€œMoney Moversâ€

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 1, 2024 42:27

White House Chair of Economic Advisers, Jared Bernstein, reacts to this morning's jobs report and the state of the economy. Plus, a look at the venture capital space post election. And, from Apple to Microsoft to Meta, we breakdown the key takeaways from this week's tech earnings.

apple elections microsoft white house takeaways reacts post election jobs report economic advisers tech earnings jared bernstein

Tony Katz Today Full Show - 10/30/24

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 30, 2024 107:56

Hour 1 Segment 1 Tony starts the show talking about how we need wall-to-wall coverage of Puerto Rico and how Joe Biden is calling Donald Trump supporters garbage. Hour 1 Segment 2 Tony talks about Colorado Secretary of State, Jena Griswold improperly posting passwords for voting on her website. Hour 1 Segment 3 Tony is joined by Dr. Matt Will, economist at the University of Indianapolis, to talk about the latest GDP report showing the economy grew at a 2.8% rate. Hour 1 Segment 4 Tony wraps up the first hour of the show talking about how Subway is shortening their customers on their meat. Hour 2 Segment 1 Tony starts the second hour of the show talking about early voting and if votes are going to be counted after Election Day. Tony also talks about the latest polls for Donald Trump and how the left tries to correct Joe Biden's comments over garbage Trump supporters. Hour 2 Segment 2 Tony talks about how on paper Trump Media & Technology Group is worth more than X and talks more about his upcoming event is selling out, Understanding the Election in Three Bourbons in Fishers. Hour 2 Segment 3 Tony plays Trump's rally in North Carolina. Hour 2 Segment 4 Tony wraps up the second hour of the show playing the current White House Press Briefing with Jared Bernstein and talks about his conversation with Dr. Matt Will from earlier in the show. Tony also talks about J.D. Vance making an appearance on The Joe Rogan Experience on Friday. Hour 3 Segment 1 Tony starts the final hour of his show continuing to play Donald Trump's rally from North Carolina and talks more about Joe Biden calling Trump supporters garbage. Tony also talks about more illegal immigrant surges in Lockland, Ohio is unsustainable. Hour 3 Segment 2 Tony talks J.D. Vance making an appearance on The Joe Rogan Experience on Friday after Trump did, and how Kamala Harris has since declined. Hour 3 Segment 3 Tony talks about that when Election Day comes and goes, it will still not be over for weeks to come. Hour 3 Segment 4 Tony wraps up another edition of the show by talking about different polls for battleground states. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode 3420: Tony Katz Today Hour 2 - 10/30/24

Exchanges at Goldman Sachs

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 30, 2024 36:04

Hour 2 Segment 1 Tony starts the second hour of the show talking about early voting and if votes are going to be counted after Election Day. Tony also talks about the latest polls for Donald Trump and how the left tries to correct Joe Biden's comments over garbage Trump supporters. Hour 2 Segment 2 Tony talks about how on paper Trump Media & Technology Group is worth more than X and talks more about his upcoming event is selling out, Understanding the Election in Three Bourbons in Fishers. Hour 2 Segment 3 Tony plays Trump's rally in North Carolina. Hour 2 Segment 4 Tony wraps up the second hour of the show playing the current White House Press Briefing with Jared Bernstein and talks about his conversation with Dr. Matt Will from earlier in the show. Tony also talks about J.D. Vance making an appearance on The Joe Rogan Experience on Friday. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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What will the US presidential election mean for the economy?

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 29, 2024 16:51

How could the proposed policy agendas between the two US presidential candidates shape markets and economies? Top economists from the Democratic and Republican parties discuss a range of economic policies, painting starkly different policy approaches in some key areas but similarities in others. In the latest episode of Goldman Sachs Exchanges, Kevin Hassett, former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Trump, and Jared Bernstein, the current Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, speak with host Allison Nathan. This episode explores the latest Top of Mind report, Post-election economic policies.

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Jobs Report Reaction, Port Strike Over & CEA Chair Jared Bernstein 10/4/24

CNBCâ€™s â€œMoney Moversâ€

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 4, 2024 42:09

Carl Quintanilla and Leslie Picker tackle today's biggest Money Movers from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

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Why Doesn't the Government Just Print More Money? Some Economists Are Arguing for More Money

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 19, 2024 11:57

You may have seen the viral clip of Jared Bernstein (former Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors for Biden during the Obama Administration), fumble through answering the questions: if the United States just makes its own currency… why would it ever borrow money or go into debt? Why doesn't the government just… create more money? Nicole taps in to answer this question today and along the way, explains the new economic school of thought— Modern Monetary Theory— that is turning this question on its head. As promised, here is the cringe-y clip: https://x.com/FindingMoneyDoc/status/1786050601236779078

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Harris and Trump strike vastly different tones in interviews

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Play Episode Listen Later Sep 18, 2024 41:29

MSNBC's Ari Melber hosts "The Beat" on Wednesday, September 18, and reports on the 2024 campaign and political power. Plus, comedian and impressionist Matt Friend returns to The Beat. Robert Greene and Jared Bernstein also join.

Is this a winning US economy for the Democrats? With Jared Bernstein

The Economics Show with Soumaya Keynes

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 16, 2024 26:38

Jared Bernstein is the chair of President Biden's Council of Economic Advisers. Today on the show, Soumaya gets to put him in the hot seat. She grills him about everything from price caps to inflation to the recent jobs numbers. They even get into the mysterious problem of the vibes. Soumaya Keynes writes a column each week for the Financial Times. You can find it hereSubscribe to Soumaya's show on Apple, Spotify, Pocket Casts or wherever you listen.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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Harris: ‘Trump is an unserious man'

The Gaggle: An Arizona politics podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 24, 2024 42:07

Tonight on The Last Word: The Kennedy family denounces RFK Jr. for endorsing Donald Trump. Also, President Biden touts the country's economic recovery from the pandemic at the DNC. Plus, more Republicans announce their support for the Harris-Walz ticket. And Vladimir Putin bans a biography on Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Stuart Stevens, Arizona State Sen. Eva Burch, Jared Bernstein, Michael Brodkorb, and Simon Shuster join Ali Velshi.

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What the stock market crash means for Arizonans

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 7, 2024 24:37

Slow job growth could be one reason why markets worldwide took a nosedive on Monday. At the beginning of August, the U.S. jobs report showed sluggish growth in July. However, the stock market has been stabilizing. And for those of us in Arizona, things are looking up. At least a little. Inflation is cooling - though that doesn't mean prices are going down, except for gas prices. Those have dropped almost 40 cents. For more than a year wages have outpaced inflation. So why do Arizonans, and most Americans, still feel a pinch in their pocketbooks? Groceries, housing, childcare, health care, everything feels so much more expensive. Why doesn't the good news feel like it's good? In this episode of The Gaggle, hosts Ron Hansen and Mary Jo Pitzl sat down with Jared Bernstein, the chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, on Friday, August 2, to discuss the state of the U.S. economy, how it's affecting Arizonans, what special challenges are state is facing, and what the Biden Administration is trying to do about. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Biden: I beat Trump before and I'll do it again

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Play Episode Listen Later Jul 13, 2024 42:01

Tonight on The Last Word: President Biden reacts to calls for him to leave the race. Also, Donald Trump wants his New York conviction tossed after the Supreme Court's immunity ruling. Plus, Biden oversees an historic stretch of low unemployment. And Trump hosts Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orbán at Mar-a-Lago again. Lavora Barnes, Adam Klasfeld, Rep. Eric Swalwell, Jared Bernstein, and Adm. James Stavridis join Ali Velshi.

More SCOTUS delay on Trump Jan. 6 immunity ruling

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Play Episode Listen Later Jun 22, 2024 42:38

Tonight on The Last Word: Donald Trump vows to pardon January 6 criminals. Also, Monday marks two years since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. Plus, the U.S. economy added 272K jobs in May. And Eugene Vindman wins the primary for a U.S. House seat in Virginia. Tom Nichols, Jennifer Rubin, Sen. Tina Smith, Jared Bernstein, and Eugene Vindman join Ali Velshi.

Kathy Hochul: “Leave the Kids Alone” 06/21/24

Squawk Pod

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 21, 2024 36:12

New York Governor Kathy Hochul has signed two bills into law to regulate digital platforms' algorithms and the use of children's data, aiming to protect children and teens online. Gov. Hochul discusses the impact of the first-in-the-nation legislation and also addresses the future of congestion pricing in New York City. Jared Bernstein, Chair of President Biden's Council of Economic Advisers, discusses the current state of the economy, President Biden's initiatives to lower the cost of living for Americans, government spending, and its impact on the federal budget deficit. Meanwhile, a cyber outage at retail technology and software provider CDK is affecting automobile dealers across the United States. Plus, Amazon's new AI-powered Alexa might cost you $10 per month. Jared Bernstein - 11:33Gov. Kathy Hochul - 25:30 Jared Bernstein, @econjared46Gov. Kathy Hochul, @GovKathyHochulJoe Kernen, @JoeSquawkBecky Quick,@BeckyQuickKatie Kramer,@Kramer_Katie

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504: The Father of Reaganomics, David Stockman Joins Us: Ominous $100 Trillion Debt is Coming

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 3, 2024 48:39

We're joined by President Ronald Reagan's Budget Director, David Stockman. He tells us what real estate investors and everyday people need to know. Stockman served as Reagan's Director of Office, Management and Budget from 1981 to 1985. He tells us to expect higher inflation and interest rates for longer, maybe even the rest of the decade. Don't expect rate cuts for a long time. The US is moving toward an unsustainable debt situation, with $100T in public debt expected within twenty-five years. We have embedded deficits. Learn why the recession has been postponed. David also reveals what will inevitably pull the trigger to potentially start the recession. Hint: Household budgets. Pandemic stimulus programs gave citizens $3T. Half of it has now been spent. He was also one of the founding partners of Blackstone. David Stockman tells a story about President Reagan's personal touch with him. You can subscribe to David Stockman's Contra Corner for free here. Resources mentioned: David Stockman's Contra Corner For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith's personal Instagram: @keithweinhold Complete episode transcript: Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to our Ivory Coast, Keith Whitehill. There are some dire warning signs for the future of our economy. We're joined by none other than the father of Reaganomics. To break it down with us. Today is late. President Ronald Reagan's budget director joins us. When is this perpetually postponed recession coming? Why? Inflation and high interest rates could carry on for the rest of the decade. And what it all means to your finances and real estate today on get Rich education. Robert Syslo (00:00:34) - Since 2014, the powerful get Rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from past real estate, investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show host Keith Wine, who writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad Advisors and delivers a new show every week. Since 2014, there's been millions of listeners downloads and 188 world nations. He has A-list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get Rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener. Robert Syslo (00:01:08) - Phone apps build wealth on the go with the get Rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get Rich education podcast or visit get Rich education.com. Corey Coates (00:01:19) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education. Keith Weinhold (00:01:35) - We're going to drive from Glen Burnie, Maryland, to Glen County, California and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Reinhold, and you're listening to get Rich education. We're going bigger picture this week before we talk to President Reagan's money guy in the white House. Understand that today's guest was also one of the founding partners of Blackstone, and they are in the real estate business. You're going to get a lot of deep, uniquely qualified insights today. And I'll tell you what's going on around here. Lately, things have been feeling awfully presidential between last week's program and now this week's program. Hey. Stars and stripes forever. Semper fi. Rah! Now, as the greatest detonation in the history of the world, how in the heck are we, as the United States, going to keep financing our debt now, you can think of a treasury, also known as a bond, as an IOU, as we take on debt to fund our government spending programs. Keith Weinhold (00:02:42) - Really, what we do is issue then these IOUs to the rest of the world and then down the road. We need to pay back these IOU holders, treasuries, holders, whatever we've borrowed with interest on top of that. That's a really simple way to describe how it works. Think of a Treasury as an IOU. Well, we have $9 trillion in treasuries that need to be rolled over at higher interest rates just this year alone. Okay. Well, how does the market look for that sort of thing? Well, a lot like before you decide to sell a piece of real estate, you would want to know how that buyer's market looks. How is the buyer's market for us selling more treasuries, which is basically us issuing more IOUs? How is that world interest level in our treasuries? Well, this is a time when the world is selling treasuries. We're trying to get rid of them. Well, why would they buy more when we keep printing like crazy, debasing the dollars that they will eventually get their treasuries repaid in down the road? Case in point, China is down to just over 700 billion of treasuries that they're holding. Keith Weinhold (00:04:01) - Well, they were 3 trillion not too long ago, more than four times that Russia and Iran sold all of their treasuries. Other countries are shedding them too, like Japan. It gets even worse than that because the number one holder of our own debt is our own fed. And then it gets even worse than that. Yet, because even our own fed is rolling treasuries off of their balance sheet. So who is going to finance this often irresponsible US spending the 10 trillion or $11 trillion every single year for the next ten years that we have obligations toward already, and it looks like all those are going to be at higher interest rates, too. Now, I am not telling you how to think about us as the United States, for example, sending foreign aid to multiple nations. That's up to you to decide whether it's Ukraine or the Middle East or Taiwan that gets political. And that is beyond the scope of GR. We are an investing show. What I'm saying is that backdrop that I just gave you, that's something that you need to take into consideration, is you weigh those foreign aid decision types. Keith Weinhold (00:05:20) - Speaking of getting worse, do we at least have competent decision makers today? Now, as we'll talk to the father of Reaganomics here shortly, someone that served in an earlier era. Here's a clip from this era that really went viral lately, but it's apropos to play it here. This is Jared Bernstein today. He chairs President Joe Biden's Council of Economic Advisers. How much confidence does this instill? And remember, this guy chairs the economic advisers to today's president. Jared Bernstein (00:05:56) - The US government can't go bankrupt because we can print our own money. Voice (00:06:00) - Like you said, they print the dollar. So why? Why does the government even borrow? Jared Bernstein (00:06:04) - Well, the, so the I mean, again, some of this stuff gets some of the language that the, some of the language and concepts are just confusing. I mean, the government definitely prints money and it definitely lends that money, which is why the government definitely prints money. And then it lends that money by, by selling bonds. Is that what they do? They they, the. Jared Bernstein (00:06:34) - Yeah. They, they they sell bonds. Yeah. They sell bonds. Right. Because they sell bonds and people buy the bonds and lend them the money. Yeah. So a lot of times, a lot of times at least to my year with MMT, the, the language and the concepts can be kind of unnecessarily confusing. But there is no question that the government prints money and then it uses that money to so, yeah, I guess I'm just I don't, I can't really, I don't, I don't get it. I don't know what they're talking about. Keith Weinhold (00:07:08) - Well geez. How's that for clarity and confidence from today's major decision makers on our economy? Gosh. Now, in my opinion, back in 2020, our government, they set up the wrong incentive structure to deal with the pandemic. Remember things like the PGP, the Paycheck Protection Program, remember mortgage loan forbearance and the eviction moratorium. See when that type of aid is given, well, then the result is that citizens don't learn that they need to keep some cash handy, and then that behavior that gets rewarded gets repeated in that behavior is handouts. Keith Weinhold (00:07:53) - And then the expectation for more handouts. 56% of Americans don't even have $1,000 for an emergency expense. Well, see, they're not really incentivized to in the future. If in a crisis, everyone just gets another taxpayer funded handout, but then see those same people that got that handout get hurt in the long run. Anyway, with the longer run inflation that the handout created, don't let there be one day of austerity for the least prepared American, I guess. Instead, bail them out and add on to everyone's debt load, which you know that right there. That seems to be the playbook. Like that is the protocol of the day that is not responsible, in my view. Now, the minutes of the latest fed meeting, they said that some fed officials would be open to raising interest rates if inflation doesn't let up. I mean, that news alone that sent stocks plunging like they were riding the Tower of Terror, giving the Dow its worst day in a while. I'll discuss that more with the father of Reaganomics, David Stockman, today. Keith Weinhold (00:09:01) - It's the kind of episode that can stretch your thinking here. Now, what is Reaganomics? Well, one thing that you should know is that it's committed to the doctrine of supply side economics. You probably heard that term before. And really what that's all about is lowering taxes, decreasing regulation, and allowing free trade and what was called the Reagan budget. That's something that his budget director Stockman expected would help curtail the welfare state. And he gained a reputation as a tough negotiator for that. He lives on the Upper East Side of Manhattan today, and it's kind of funny with macroeconomic discussions. You'll notice something here, the word million, that doesn't even come up that much anymore. It's simply a number that is too small. It is more like billion and trillion. And hey, let's see if the term three orders of magnitude above trillion comes up today. Quadrillion, or even the one after that quintillion. Is that where we're going next? We'll see. before we meet David Simon, I've gotten more questions about something, because the national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. Keith Weinhold (00:10:18) - And where do you really get a decent yield on your savings, even beyond the 5% in an online only savings account or a CD, which that does not outpace true inflation? For years now, I've reliably been getting 8%. What I do is keep my dollars in a private liquidity fund. You can do this to your cash generates up to an 8% return. The minimum investment amount is just 25 K, and you keep getting paid until you decide that you want your money back. And the private liquidity fund has a decade plus track record, and they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know this because I am an investor with them myself. So see what it feels like to earn 8%. A lot of other great listeners are any investing involves risk, even dollars at a brick and mortar bank. So to learn more, just text the word family to 66866. Learn more about the liquidity fund. Get 8% interest. Just do it right now while you're thinking about it. Keith Weinhold (00:11:23) - Text family to 66866. Let's meet David Stockman. A Wall Street and Washington insider and Harvard grad. Today's guest is a former two time congressman from Michigan, a prolific author, and he is none other than the man known as the father of Reaganomics. He was indeed President Ronald Reagan's budget advisor. Welcome to the show, David Stockman. David Stockman (00:11:54) - Great to be with you. And, that was a while back. But I think there's some lessons from that time that we would be well advised to try to apply today, that's for sure. Keith Weinhold (00:12:05) - Well, it's an illustrious title that you'll never shake. It's a pleasure to have you here. And David is a real estate investing show. At times we need to step back and look at the bigger picture. And now on the economy, one seems to get a different answer depending on who they speak with. You have a highly qualified opinion. What do both investors and citizens need to know today about the condition of the American economy? David Stockman (00:12:29) - I don't think the outlook is very promising, but I think it's important to understand what that means for real estate investors, because the fact is, if you're in real estate and I know many of your listeners or viewers are very knowledgeable and sophisticated, there's really two ways to look at real estate. David Stockman (00:12:49) - One is as a property that generates a flow of cash or income that is highly reliable, and that you can count on and produces a rate of return on the invested capital that's attractive. That's one way. The second way is that if you invest at the right time, when perhaps interest rates are falling and therefore multiples or cap rates are becoming more attractive and property values are rising rapidly, mainly because of easy money and lower interest rates, then there's a huge opportunity for capital gains. As another way of generating return on capital. But those are two obviously very different tracks. The capital gains route by old invest, improve flip flop the gain and move on or the, you know, income based rent and earnings based, approach to property. Now, I think the reason I went through this is pretty elementary, of course, is that the macro environment is very different between the first strategy and the second strategy. And therefore, the important thing to understand about the macro environment is which environment are you in and is it conducive to strategy a the income strategy or b the capital gains strategy? I would say right now we're totally in an incomes strategy environment, the first route. David Stockman (00:14:34) - And that's because as we've gone through several decades of easy money, of rapidly rising asset values, of ultra low interest rates, very high multiples, in terms of property values to income that has generated trillions and trillions of capital gains for smart real estate investors. But I think we're out of that environment, and we're in an environment now where we're stuck with massive public debt and deficits. We're stuck with a, central bank that is, basically painted itself into a corner, created so much fiat credit, generated so much liquidity into the economy that now it will be struggling with inflation for years to come. Which means, notwithstanding Wall Street's constant belief that rate cuts are coming tomorrow, there won't be rate cuts for a long time to come. And what we're facing, therefore, there is likely higher rates for longer. A environment in which property values are flat if not declining, and therefore the capital gains route is not going to work very well. But if you have good properties with good tenants and good cash flows and, rental flows, real estate mine works out pretty well. David Stockman (00:16:05) - But you have to understand the macro environment. And that's one of the things that I work on daily when I, publish my daily newsletter, which is called, David Stockman's Contra Corner. Keith Weinhold (00:16:19) - You can learn more about Contra Corner, David's blog, before we're done today. David, you have a lot of interesting things to say. There we are in this environment where rates have been higher, longer. It sounds like you believe that is going to continue to be the. Case is rate cuts will be postponed is a little more difficult question. It's some crystal ball stuff. But can you tell us more about that? What can we expect for inflation in interest rates for the rest of this 2020s decade, which has about six years to go? David Stockman (00:16:48) - There's going to be high rates for most of this decade because we have so much inflation and excess demand built into the economy. We really went overboard, especially after 2020 with the pandemic lockdowns and then these massive stimulus program, something like $6 trillion of added stimulus, was injected into the economy in less than 12 months. David Stockman (00:17:16) - That created a undertow of inflation that is still with us. And despite all the hopeful commentary that comes from Wall Street, if you look at it year to date, I don't look at just the CPI because the headline number is somewhat volatile and can be pushed and pulled a lot from a month to month based on nonrecurring conditions. But if you look at something called the 16% trimmed mean CPI, it's just the same CPI, but it takes out the lowest 8%, the highest 8% of price observations each month out of the thousands in the market basket. What it does is basically takes the extreme volatility out of the top and the bottom, and gives you a trend that is more reliable if you're looking like on a quarter by quarter or year by year or even multi year basis, well, I mentioned this is important because the trim means CPI is still running at about 4.3% during the first four months of this year to date. That's not a victory over inflation. That's double what the fed says his target is. And frankly, the Fed's target is a little bit phony. David Stockman (00:18:35) - I mean, what's so great about 2% inflation if you're a saver and your savings are, you know, shrinking by 30% over the course of a decade, so they're going to have a tremendous wrestling match with inflation, not just for a few more months, but I think for several more years in this decade, I don't see the federal funds rate, which is kind of the benchmark rate for overnight money coming down below 5% very soon, or if at all. And that's because with inflation running at 4% or better, if you have a 5% money market rate, you're barely getting a return on capital, especially if you factor in taxes. You know, it's like it's a rounding error and that doesn't work over time. I mean, you're not going to get long term savings. You're not going to get long term capital investment. If the return is after inflation and taxes are either non-existent or negative, as they've been for quite a while. So even though everybody would like to hope we're going back to the good old days of 0% over 90 money or 1% money, which they got so used to over the last couple of decades. David Stockman (00:19:55) - It was bad policy. It wasn't sustainable. It caused a huge amount of bubbles and distortions in our economy. But once we finally got to the end of that in March 2022, when the fed had to finally pivot and say, yeah, inflation isn't transitory, it's, embedded, we got to do something about it. People think we're going right back to where we were, and that's the key thing to understand. We are not going right back to where we were, in part because of all this inflation business I've talked about, but also in part because they got so used to borrowing money on Capitol Hill and practically zero interest rates that they are now, you know, they have built in deficits of 2 trillion or more a year. And, we are going to be pushing into the bond pits, massive amounts of new government debt. There's no consensus to do anything about it. You know, if the Republicans talk about reforming the entitlements, the Democrats say you're throwing grandma out the snow. If the Democrats talk about raising revenue, the Republicans talked about, you're going to get slaughtered with higher taxes. David Stockman (00:21:12) - And then everybody's for more wars and more defense and the bigger and bigger national security budget. And that's all she wrote. If you don't do with revenue, you don't do it national defense and entitlements. The rest of it is rounding errors. And so we're stuck with these massive additions to the debt. Now, everybody knows the public debt. Is 34 trillion. Ready? Yeah. What I'd say they don't understand is that by the end of this decade, you ask about the decade, right? Will we close to 60 trillion of debt. And, if you look at the last CBO, projection they do every year at long term projection, and CBO actually is more optimistic than it is warranted in any way. In other words, their long term assumptions I call rosy scenario. There's no more recessions for the next couple of decades. Inflation is well-behaved, interest rates stay low. Full employment lasts indefinitely and forever. Well, this doesn't happen. Look at the real world. Over the last 20 or 30 years, we've been all over the lot. David Stockman (00:22:18) - So if you look at the CBO forecast, which is I'm just saying here is exceedingly optimistic. They never are the less are projecting that the public debt and they don't even write this number down in their report because it's too scary, will be $100 trillion before the middle of this century. Keith Weinhold (00:22:41) - That's a. David Stockman (00:22:42) - Trillion. Yeah. Now, if you ask people today who are market savvy, I like a lot of your viewers. Where are the Treasury bills, notes and bonds today? Well, if you average it all out, it's about 5%. I don't think it's going to come down much. It'll vary a little bit up and down over time, but let's just say it stays at 5%. That means the carry cost of the public debt of a couple decades will be 5 trillion a year. The interest okay. It's staggering. That's almost as much as the whole federal budget is spending this today at, you know, about 6.6 6.7 trillion. So that's where we're heading, a massive debt crisis because they built in a structural deficit that the politicians and I call it the unite party. David Stockman (00:23:33) - They fight about silly things, but they agree on the big things which are leading to this outcome. The unit party has no ability to do anything about this structural deficit or the march from the 34 trillion that we're at today to 60 trillion by the end of the decade, and 100 trillion of public debt by mid-century. Now, for a real estate investor, that's probably the most important number you're going to hear. You know, at least this week or maybe this month or even this year, because what it means is that the amount of new government debt flowing into the bond pits, that'll have to be financed and that can't be monetized by the fed anymore because there's too much inflation, is going to put constant, enormous pressure upward on interest rates. And of course, higher interest rates mean lower property values. That's just basic real estate math. That's the environment we're heading into, which means good properties with good income and good rental flows are really the only way to go. Keith Weinhold (00:24:55) - Yeah, well, there's an awful lot there. Keith Weinhold (00:24:57) - And with this persistent higher inflation that you expect, the way I think about it is the higher the rate of inflation, the more that moves a person's dollars out of a savings account and instead out onto the risk curve. Well, David alluded to a problematic economy. We're going to come back and talk about more of those warning signs and what you can do about it. You're listening to Get Resuscitation, the father of Reaganomics and Ronald Reagan's budget director, David Stockman, I'm your host, Keith Reinhold. Role under this specific expert with income property, you need Ridge Lending Group and MLS for 256 injury history from beginners to veterans. They provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your pre-qualification and chat with President Charlie Ridge. Personally, they'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com Ridge lending group.com. Speaker 7 (00:26:06) - This is author Jim Rickards. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Reinhold and don't quit your day dream. Keith Weinhold (00:26:23) - Welcome back to Get Ready. So we're talking with the father of Reaganomics. His name is David Stockman, President Reagan's budget advisor. David, you've been talking about a problematic economy and places we can look and the outcomes that that can create. Why don't we talk about some more of those where we're here in a period where we feel like it's an official recession postponed, for example, are there other places that we should be looking? Is it the sustained inverted yield curve that we had for almost two years, the longest one ever, and a Great Recession predictor? Or is it that we're on the precipice of implosion from a debt to GDP ratio that's at 122%. It actually spiked to 133% when Covid first hit. Or for example, is it something and you've already touched on it a bit, is it more of that federal spending on our debts, interest payments alone each year, which had almost $900 billion for that interest line item that now even exceeds the massive $800 billion that we spend each year on national defense, or should we be looking at somewhere else? So what's out there that's really problematic and what's overblown? David Stockman (00:27:28) - Okay. David Stockman (00:27:29) - That's great. And all of those things you mentioned you should be looking at, it depends on your time frame. But I think on the initial question, where is this postponed recession? Why hasn't that happened? The place to look is somewhere that I think most Wall Street analysts aren't focused on, but they should be. And that's a series published by the Federal Reserve that tracks household balance sheets, in other words, liabilities and assets. But there's a particular series that I think is critically important to look at, and it's basically bank deposits, checking account savings accounts plus money market funds. This is all the liquid cash accounts of the household sector, not long term investments in real estate or stocks or bonds, but the short term money. It's the spendable money that households have now, what happened during the pandemic and lockdowns. And then the 6 trillion Is stems that were injected into the economy, like some kind of fiscal madness was going on in Washington, created a total aberration in the amount of cash in the economy, in the household sector, in these accounts that I just mentioned, normally right before the lockdown started and the stimulus was injected, you know, the level of cash accounts was about 12 trillion. David Stockman (00:29:00) - Within two years it was up to 18 trillion. And normally that cash balance grows about the same rate as the economy. In other words, as incomes go up, people save a small share of their income that goes into various bank accounts. There tends to be a lock step relationship. But what happened during that two year period was there was so much extra cash sent out to the households with the $2,000 checks in the $600 a week extra stimulus money, and then the, trillions that went, you know, for things like the Small Business Administration loan program, which was all forgivable, was about almost upwards of $1 trillion. You know, we could itemize all the others. But this enormous government, unusual cash flow into the economy added to these bank accounts enormously. And then something else happened. The geniuses in Washington, led by Doctor Fauci, decided to shut down half of the service sector, the economy. I'm talking with restaurants and bars and gyms, malls and movies and and all the rest of it. David Stockman (00:30:09) - So all of a sudden, the normal money that people would have been spending on the service venues, which is a big part of total spending, was stopped. It was kind of forced into artificial savings, sort of government mandated savings. Now, if you put the two together, there was about 2 trillion, extra transfer payments sent out to the public during that two year period. And there was a little over a trillion of normal service spending, restaurants in, etc. that didn't happen because there was a closed sign on the door, compliments of Doctor Fauci, or people were scared to death to go out because, you know, they created all this fear that Covid was some form of black death, which it really wasn't for 95% of the population. In any event, if you put the extra free stuff from the government, 2 trillion and the for savings because of these lockdowns, trillion, you have 3 trillion of unusual cash that flowed into the economy on top of the normal production. Income and profits and spending that would have otherwise gone on. David Stockman (00:31:26) - Now that 3 trillion temporarily ended up in this account, that I'm just talking about the cash balances of the household sector and its peak, there was about 2.8 trillion extra compared to what would been be the normal case in a regular economy. In a normal economy, that money has been slowly spent down by the household sector, even as the fed has tried to put the screws to the economy. In other words, there was so much extra cash in the system that even as the fed raised interest rates from 0 to 5% and did their darndest to slow things down, all of that excess that was built up during the pandemic period was available to spend. It was spent. And here's the key point. About half of it is now been spent. In other words, there's only about a trillion and a half of the nearest 3 trillion left. Now that is what's delayed the recession. If that big, massive 3 trillion nest egg had been there and the fed began to push rates up as it normally did in a normal cycle, we would have been in recession months ago. David Stockman (00:32:41) - But what has delayed or deferred the recession is this, cushion, this huge macro piggybank of cash that the government inadvertently or adversely is the case may be generated, during the pandemic period. So that's new. See that? Nobody looks at that because normally it's not a factor. You know, the cash balances are a pretty, prosaic, neutral part of the economy. They're not where you look for the leading edge of where the cycle was going or where new developments may turn up tomorrow. But this time, because of this total aberration of what happened to government transfer payments plus the lockdowns, we have a, X factor, let's call it in the macro picture that is confusing people. It's leading a lot of people to abdicate this no landing scenario. In other words, you know, there's not going to be a recession. We're just going to go on to bigger and better things. And, the fed will get inflation under control and then we can be back to happy times again. No, they're missing. David Stockman (00:33:56) - The elephant in the room is this massive aberrational unusual one time cash balance that was, generated by these policies. And that still has a little ways to go now. I think at the rate it's being run down, you can almost calculate it a couple hundred billion dollars, a quarter sometime next year, all of that extra cash will be out of the system. And then people will be back to spending only what they're earning. And frankly, earnings they're not. I'm talking about wage and salary earnings, are advancing barely at the inflation rate at the present time. So when we get back to about zero real growth in earnings, we're going to finally see the recession. Keith Weinhold (00:34:45) - I think one of the big takeaways here is that all these artificial economic injections really take time to unwind. David Stockman (00:34:56) - Exactly. You have to look at, you know, they always say, well, when the government changes policy, fiscal policy, you tighten or you loosen or monetary policy they raise or lower interest rates. They got QE or they got cute putting money in or taking money out that there's lag and lead times in all of this. David Stockman (00:35:18) - The problem is, none of the great economic gurus who talk about this really know whether the lag time is 12 months, 25 months, 50 or 5, and it varies. I mean, the circumstance has changed so much in a world GDP of 104 trillion, a domestic economy with 28 trillion of GDP, and all the complex factors that are moving back and forth in today's world, especially as it's enabled by technology and global trade and the internet and all the rest of it, nobody knows the lag times. And as a result, it's very hard to predict when the, brown stuff is going to hit the fan, so to speak. On the other hand, you don't have to know the exact date. You really need to understand the direction, the flow of things. And if you're in an environment that isn't sustainable because you're borrowing like crazy or interest rates or artificially. Low or stock price multiples are way the L2 ie or cap rates on real estate or you know, abnormally low. Then what you have to say is we're going to a different state. David Stockman (00:36:35) - It's not going to be as conducive as the current state, and we have to be prepared for it, even if we are not sure whether that's 12 months from now or 24 months. But it's going to change. So one thing you can be sure of, there is a famous economist back in my day when I worked on Capitol Hill earlier on, he was Nixon's chief economic adviser in the early 70s. And he famously formulated an aphorism, I guess, which said anything that is unsustainable tends to stop. Okay, that's what I know about the lag times. We're in unsustainable financial, fiscal and monetary environment. And the trends that it has given rise to are going to stop and and not in a good way. Keith Weinhold (00:37:24) - He even fed Chair Jerome Powell has confessed as much as that. This situation is indeed unsustainable, the exact word that he used. Well, David, this has been great in winding down as Ronald Reagan's budget director. Can you share any anecdote, story or quote from you spending time personally with Ronald Reagan? And the reason I ask is because he is perhaps the most revered president of the past few generations. Keith Weinhold (00:37:52) - That might mean a lot to our listeners here. David Stockman (00:37:54) - He should be revered, and not only because he was a great president and a great communicator, and did a lot of important things in policy. Some of them got implemented, and a lot of them were frustrated by Washington and the politicians and the Democrats and everybody else. But also, he was a great human being. And my story about that was when I was budget director, in the fifth year of the Reagan administration, we had our first child, and my wife was in the hospital. At that point in time, President Reagan was in Europe on a very important big international, series of meetings. But, somebody in the white House told him that our daughter had been born. And so he took the time out of his schedule for a call from Germany, the hospital where my wife was, and said he would like to talk to her and, congratulate us on our new arrival. But my wife was in a room with another, a new mother. David Stockman (00:38:53) - She the other person answered the phone and she said to my wife, there's some joker on the phone with President Reagan. And sure enough, he was there. and he took the time to congratulate my wife. And, so that's the kind of, person he was. He really was a great human being. Keith Weinhold (00:39:13) - Wow. Yeah. That really shows that he can still be warm and heartfelt, even while doing some key international negotiations there. Potentially. Well, we mentioned it earlier. I can tell you, the audience, that David is a regular author and contributor to his Contra Corner blog and letter, and you can get access to that for free. This is information coming from the father of Reaganomics to you. If you think you would find it a value. David, tell us how our audience can connect with you there. David Stockman (00:39:44) - Just Google David Stockman Contra corner I publish, I have a website, issues a newsletter every day. It comes automatically in the email. I also have a Substack version. You can sign up for either one, the email from my site or from Substack. David Stockman (00:40:02) - And every day we try to publish something on these issues that we've been talking about. One day it might be Wall Street, another day it might be Capitol Hill, another day it might be, you know, the war in Ukraine. All of these things matter. All of these things influence the environment that investors have to function in. So we try to comment on a variety of those issues based on, you know, the long experience that I've had, both not only in Washington, but also I was on Wall Street, for about 20 years. I was one of the founding partners of Blackstone, for instance. And we were in the real estate business in a major way, even then. Keith Weinhold (00:40:44) - Well, we absolutely love that. And I sure am appreciative of your time. It was great connecting with you. And thanks for being on the program today, David. David Stockman (00:40:53) - Very good. Enjoyed it. Keith Weinhold (00:41:01) - Yeah. Deep insights from the father of Reaganomics. Stockman thinks we'll be struggling with inflation for years to come. Keith Weinhold (00:41:08) - There won't be rate cuts for a long time. He sees real estate values as flat or declining, so have good tenants with steady income streams. Of course, in our favoured real estate segment here, residential 1 to 4 units where you can get 30 year fixed rate debt. Higher mortgage rates tend to correlate with higher prices, just like it has for the last three years and almost every period before that too. But there could be more pain for the commercial sector then, and assets that are tied to floating rate debt. And if you're aligned with David Stockman on that, you might want to look at your helocs, because after a fixed rate period, their rates tend to float along with the fed funds rate. So be cautious with Helocs and ask David for specifics. He doesn't see the federal funds rate coming down below 5% anytime soon, and you probably know that is the interest rate that a whole bunch of other interest rates are based off of. And that rate is currently at about 5.3%. By the way, there is projected to be more than 100 t more than $100 trillion of public debt before the middle of this century. Keith Weinhold (00:42:22) - That's less than 25 years away. I mean, these figures just become unfathomable sometimes. Pandemic wrought inflation that really occurred due to this greater supply of dollars that was introduced chasing a reduced supply of goods. And there were fewer goods because people got paid to stay at home not producing anything. Plus, what had been produced often could not be shipped either. David discussed the 16% trimmed mean CPI, and I've got to say, as much as I am a student devotee in studying inflation, I had never heard of that from his vantage point to find recession signs, look at household balance sheets and what's delayed the recession is that those pandemic measures put an extra 3 trillion bucks into households, and households still have about 1.5 trillion left to spend, which could further delay a recession. He projects that it's sometime next year that all of that extra cash will be out of the system. When you talk to how many people got this recession predictions so horribly wrong? Back in October 2022, Bloomberg Economics forecast a 100% chance of a recession by the following fall, which is almost a year ago now. Keith Weinhold (00:43:48) - Well, a 100% chance that left no room for anything else to happen. And they really whiffed on that one. Now, you know, I've got to add something here. A personal note if I can, but I'll give you a lesson along with it. And that is that at times like today, where I found myself one degree of separation from one of the most revered presidents in all of American history, I sometimes have some difficulty understanding how I keep having the opportunity to share time with people like today's guest. Now, I'm certainly not a PhD economist. And in fact, on the flip side, I've also never been a person that's been so poor and destitute that I was dying of hunger. But I do come from a modest place. When I flew the coop and left my parents home, I rented my first pathetic place to live a $325 a month pool house in the back of my landlord's property at 852 Spruce Avenue in Westchester, Pennsylvania. Yeah, a pathetic little pool house right next to the landlord's swimming pool. Keith Weinhold (00:45:04) - I mean, I was living really pathetically there for a while as I was struggling just to do things like find gainful employment and figure out the world and find a steady income. Yeah, it was 325 a month plus electric and the one small heater that was there, it was electric and it was really expensive to run. And on the coldest days, it wouldn't even adequately heat my pathetic little pool house that I ended up living in for 18 months. And just because I couldn't figure a way out of that situation for a while, I mean, I was too ashamed to ever bring a girl back there to that sad pool house. It was just one sink for the whole place. Combined kitchen and bathroom sink in the bathroom. I mean, most of my friends, they got their driver's license at age 16 and they soon had their own car. I didn't own a car until I was aged 22 or 23, and it's not because I lived in an urban area and walked. Everywhere use public transit there in Pennsylvania. Keith Weinhold (00:46:02) - It just took me a long time to afford a beater car and pay for insurance. I really needed a car and couldn't afford one. So really my point here is that sometimes I have to wonder how I got here from there. And I think what it is is taking an interest in real estate and investing. And despite just having a humble bachelor's degree in geography, it's really about becoming an autodidact, meaning self-taught. And it's easy to teach yourself when you find what interests you. And let me point to two other things besides adopting an auto didactic ethic to help me turn the corner into being in a place where I can have conversations like the one that I've had today. It was getting around aspirational friends. Like I've mentioned before, that showed me how I can start with a bang buy with little money. On my first home, I could put a 3.5% down payment on a fourplex, live in one unit and rent out the other three. And I will give myself some credit for doing those things. And then really, the third thing is that stroke of luck element, like just 4% of world inhabitants have been. Keith Weinhold (00:47:15) - I was one of that 4% that was born in the United States. And then I had two great, married, stable, supportive parents to cultivate the right environment for me. And well, today was just one of those days where I sort of nudged myself and I'm glad that it happened. Most importantly, I trust that you got value from today's show and that you do every single week here. Check out David Stockman's Contra Corner. Next week, we'll look for signs of distress in real estate as we delve inside the foreclosure market and how you can find discounted deals there. Until then, Idaho's Keith Wayne hold don't quit your day trip. Speaker 8 (00:48:02) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively. The. Keith Weinhold (00:48:30) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Keith Weinhold (00:48:34) - Get rich education.com.

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Episode 381: $1 Trillion in Interest

Words & Numbers

Play Episode Listen Later May 29, 2024 25:21

The annual gross interest on the debt exceeded $1 trillion for the first time in history. Years ago, we warned that the combination of on-going deficits and inevitably higher interest rates would give us exactly what we have now. Foolishness of the Week: 08:16 Main episode: 09:31 Get Your Copy of Cooperation and Coercion Now! http://www.cooperationandcoercion.com See More Ant and James! http://www.wordsandnumbers.org Show Your Support for Words & Numbers at Patreon https://www.patreon.com/wordsandnumbers Quick Hits https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jared_Bernstein https://youtu.be/p5qTFd6PJ0k?si=iB2LjscjaCQW4nk3&t=216 https://x.com/walterolson/status/1792007573463261516/photo/1 Foolishness of the Week https://www.live5news.com/2024/05/17/man-is-moving-his-entire-house-12-feet-comply-with-zoning-rules/ Topic of the Week https://www.visualcapitalist.com/u-s-debt-interest-payments-reach-1-trillion/ Words & Numbers Backstage https://www.facebook.com/groups/130029457649243/ More James at Smoke & Stories https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLjILow4-ZJpBV-NnmSusZJ_vCuzKUJ4Ig More Ant on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/antonydavies Let Us Know What You Think mailto:wordsandnumberspodcast@gmail.com Antony Davies on Twitter https://twitter.com/antonydavies James R. Harrigan on Twitter https://twitter.com/JamesRHarrigan #AntonyDavies #JamesRHarrigan #WordsAndNumbers #economics #government #politics #policy #libertarian #classicalliberal #podcast #educational

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Episode 380: Population Shrink

Words & Numbers

Play Episode Listen Later May 22, 2024 34:52

A generation or two ago, people wrung their hands over the population explosion. What will happen, they said, when we finally have too many people! It turns out that, not only was overpopulation not a problem, underpopulation has become one. Foolishness of the Week: 8:25 Main episode: 14:19 Get Your Copy of Cooperation and Coercion Now! http://www.cooperationandcoercion.com See More Ant and James! http://www.wordsandnumbers.org Show Your Support for Words & Numbers at Patreon https://www.patreon.com/wordsandnumbers Quick Hits https://www.yourtango.com/news/bumble-founder-says-future-ai-dating Foolishness of the Week https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jared_Bernstein https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2024/05/03/biden_economic_advisor_jared_bernstein.html Topic of the Week https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/ar-BB1mhbxT Words & Numbers Backstage https://www.facebook.com/groups/130029457649243/ More James at Smoke & Stories https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLjILow4-ZJpBV-NnmSusZJ_vCuzKUJ4Ig More Ant on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/antonydavies Let Us Know What You Think mailto:wordsandnumberspodcast@gmail.com Antony Davies on Twitter https://twitter.com/antonydavies James R. Harrigan on Twitter https://twitter.com/JamesRHarrigan #AntonyDavies #JamesRHarrigan #WordsAndNumbers #economics #government #politics #policy #libertarian #classicalliberal #podcast #educational

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White House Economic Advisor Challenged By Neil Cavuto-Hour 2

The Joe Pags Show

Play Episode Listen Later May 18, 2024 37:48

Fox Business host Neil Cavuto grew frustrated with White House economic advisor Jared Bernstein after he side-stepped questions about a false inflation claim President Joe Biden has repeatedly made. Pags breaks it all down. PLUS...General Michael Flynn speaks with Pags about the Trump court cases, the upcoming election, his new movie, and much more.

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"You're Lying:" Neil Cavuto Slams Jared Bernstein | 5.17.24 - The Grace Curley Show Hour 2

The Howie Carr Radio Network

Play Episode Listen Later May 17, 2024 38:33

Tune in to Grace as she explores the world of mainstream media and the lies of the Left. Visit the Howie Carr Radio Network website to access columns, podcasts, and other exclusive content.

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5-17-24 Part 1 Biden blocks GOP access to Hur audio

Red Eye Radio

Play Episode Listen Later May 17, 2024 148:26

Part one of Red Eye Radio with Gary McNamara and Eric Harley includes Neil Cavuto calling out White House economic advisor Jared Bernstein over Biden's inflation lie. Michael Cohen was destroyed on the stand yesterday. Even CNN knows the trial is a disaster. Special Counsel Hur audio of Biden interview doesn't fall under executive privilege. Kansas City Chief's kicker under fire for being pro family. A poll reveals who voters would like to see as Trump's VP. Who is the future of the Democrat party? For more talk on the issues that matter to you, listen on radio stations across America Monday-Friday 12am-5am CT (1am-6am ET and 10pm-3am PT), download the RED EYE RADIO SHOW app, asking your smart speaker, or listening at RedEyeRadioShow.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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A Chief of US Finance CANNOT explain US Finance Zach Abraham is here to help Ep-1588

The Todd Herman Show

Play Episode Listen Later May 10, 2024 51:19

In an unbelievably instructive clip, we hear an economic advisor to Figurehead Biden who is unable to explain how the US financial system works. Zach Abraham shares what we can learn from this particular topic and how our economy is being impacted. And, it wouldn't be an interview with Zach without his vision for what we should be doing with our money.What does God's Word say? Matthew 6:25-3425 “Therefore I tell you, do not worry about your life, what you will eat or drink; or about your body, what you will wear. Is not life more than food, and the body more than clothes? 26 Look at the birds of the air; they do not sow or reap or store away in barns, and yet your heavenly Father feeds them. Are you not much more valuable than they? 27 Can any one of you by worrying add a single hour to your life[a]?28 “And why do you worry about clothes? See how the flowers of the field grow. They do not labor or spin. 29 Yet I tell you that not even Solomon in all his splendor was dressed like one of these. 30 If that is how God clothes the grass of the field, which is here today and tomorrow is thrown into the fire, will he not much more clothe you—you of little faith? 31 So do not worry, saying, ‘What shall we eat?' or ‘What shall we drink?' or ‘What shall we wear?' 32 For the pagans run after all these things, and your heavenly Father knows that you need them. 33 But seek first his kingdom and his righteousness, and all these things will be given to you as well. 34 Therefore do not worry about tomorrow, for tomorrow will worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own.Matthew 14:22-3322 Immediately Jesus made the disciples get into the boat and go on ahead of him to the other side, while he dismissed the crowd. 23 After he had dismissed them, he went up on a mountainside by himself to pray. Later that night, he was there alone, 24 and the boat was already a considerable distance from land, buffeted by the waves because the wind was against it.25 Shortly before dawn Jesus went out to them, walking on the lake. 26 When the disciples saw him walking on the lake, they were terrified. “It's a ghost,” they said, and cried out in fear.27 But Jesus immediately said to them: “Take courage! It is I. Don't be afraid.”28 “Lord, if it's you,” Peter replied, “tell me to come to you on the water.”29 “Come,” he said.Then Peter got down out of the boat, walked on the water and came toward Jesus. 30 But when he saw the wind, he was afraid and, beginning to sink, cried out, “Lord, save me!”31 Immediately Jesus reached out his hand and caught him. “You of little faith,” he said, “why did you doubt?”32 And when they climbed into the boat, the wind died down. 33 Then those who were in the boat worshiped him, saying, “Truly you are the Son of God.”Episode 1,588 Links:This is absolutely priceless. And probably the most frightening clip you'll ever watch on the people in charge of the US economy. Jared Bernstein is literally the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, the main agency advising Biden on economic policyMiss Teen USA 2007 - South Carolina answers a questionPatriots https://4Patriots.com/Todd Stay connected when the power goes out and get free shipping on orders over $97. Bioptimizers https://bioptimizers.com/todd Use promo code TODD for 10% off your order. Sharpen your edge and reach your potential with Mushroom Breakthrough by Bioptimizers. Bulwark Capital Bulwark Capital Management (bulwarkcapitalmgmt.com) Call 866-779-RISK or visit online to get their FREE Common Cents Investing Guide. EdenPURE https://edenpuredeals.com Use code TODD3 to save $200 on the Thunderstorm Air Purifier 3-pack. GreenHaven Interactive Digital Marketing https://greenhaveninteractive.com Your Worldclass Website Will Get Found on Google! Native Path Krill https://nativepathkrill.com/todd For a limited time get Native Path Antarctic Krill Oil for as little as $23 per bottle. Renue Healthcare https://renuewellcation.com Register today for your Wellcation with Todd Herman June 7-11, 2024. See site for details

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Elon Musk Finally Shares the Fear That Keeps Him Up at Night

The Rubin Report

Play Episode Listen Later May 7, 2024 69:29

Dave Rubin of “The Rubin Report” talks about Elon Musk explaining to the Milken Institute why declining birth rates is a much bigger problem than people realize and could lead to societal collapse; Warren Buffett explaining why choosing your life partner is the most important decision you'll ever make; Chris Cuomo reversing course on COVID vaccines after he announced that he may have a vaccine related injury; Sage Steele and Matt Barnes discussing the real dangers of vaccine mandates; a clip from the documentary “Finding the Money” featuring Biden's economic advisor Jared Bernstein being unable to explain the basics of government debt; “The View's” Alyssa Farah Griffin asking Jen Psaki why Joe Biden doesn't do many press conferences; Mark Hamill's May the 4th cringe moment with Karine Jean-Pierre; Joe Rogan's jaw dropping as Abigail Shrier explains why therapy has been making people's mental health worse; the most insightful bits from Scott Galloway's TED talk “How the US Is Destroying Young People's Future”; and much more. WATCH the MEMBER-EXCLUSIVE segment of the show here: https://rubinreport.locals.com/ Check out the NEW RUBIN REPORT MERCH here: https://daverubin.store/ ---------- Today's Sponsors: Privacy Academy - Don't let Google continue to harvest all of your data and use it for creating a total surveillance state. You can take control and "De-Google Your Life". Get the FREE eBook here: https://privacyacademy.com/dave/ Gameday - Stop suffering from daily pain! Use the 100% drug free way to get full body pain relief without dangerous pills with Conolidine. Click on the link below TODAY you can access the only Conolidine product in the world for less than $1 per day. This private link will work until midnight tonight. Go to http://www.trycono.com/Rubin Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hour 2: Credentialed Morons

The Jesse Kelly Show

Play Episode Listen Later May 7, 2024 36:07 Transcription Available

Most Americans don't realize their institutions are captured. Idiot professionals coming from idiot schools, people like Jared Bernstein. Does feminism cause mass shootings? MoH Foster Joseph Sayers. A world wide conspiracy. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Met Gala Weirdos & Bumbling Jared Bernstein | Daily Best of May 7 | Rick & Bubba

Rick & Bubba Show

Play Episode Listen Later May 7, 2024 83:07 Transcription Available

We take a look at the weirdos at the 2024 Met Gala and the pro-Hamas protests that attempted to infiltrate "fashion's biggest night out." Lizzo dressed like a trash can, we assume to symbolize how she treats her body. Jared Bernstein, chair of Biden's Council of Economic Advisers, has gone viral for not understanding how government bonds work. With people like Bernstein setting our economic policy, no wonder the economy continues to tank. Trump says he's willing to go to jail to defend the Constitution. And the Knicks get a playoff game win after a controversial call against the Pacers.Sponsor: Covenant Eyes has been the #1 accountability software for over 23 years for Christians seeking to live a porn-free life. Victory by Covenant Eyes is a powerful tool that helps Christians who are serious and want to quit porn for good or never start. Victory combines industry-leading technology with decades of experience and leadership in recovery content, accountability, and behavior change. The Covenant Eyes Victory app with powerful accountably features built-in and the optional blocking technology, makes it an unparalleled tool in the fight to live a porn-free life. Living a porn-free life will bring you a new freedom to live honestly and remember Accountability is NOT others calling you out on your sin but others calling you UP to the person you are in Christ. So what are you waiting for, Anyone can get started on their path to recovery for free by visiting: http://CovenantEyes.com and using promo code RICK for 30 days free or by clicking on the link in the show notes today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoicesSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Met Gala Weirdos & Bumbling Jared Bernstein | Daily Best of May 7 | Rick & Bubba

Rick & Bubba Show

Play Episode Listen Later May 7, 2024 83:07

donald trump joe biden council constitution hamas new york knicks lizzo met gala pacers bernstein bubba weirdos economic advisers bumbling jared bernstein

Biden Makes A Disastrous Move,Old Guard Is Exposed And In The Process Of Being Destroyed – Ep. 3347

X22 Report

Play Episode Listen Later May 6, 2024 92:02

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found Click On Picture To See Larger Picture All these wealthy people pushing the climate hoax, they did not get rid of their planes, yachts etc. Tells you everything you need to know. House prices are crashing and the Biden admin cannot explain why the government borrow money if we print money, or did they get caught and tried to cover it all up. The [DS] plan to indict Trump is failing, each day that passes people see the political hit. It is now proven that Biden admin is now going after Trump during an election. Trump sends message, the old guard is in the process of being destroyed. Events are incoming but these will be used to wake the rest of the people up. (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); Economy https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1787514712441102593 https://twitter.com/libsoftiktok/status/1787310958907437087 https://twitter.com/QuiverQuant/status/1787488896386752928 I'm working on a longer report. https://twitter.com/GameofTrades_/status/1786847011486196156 https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1787490880137593192 https://twitter.com/pete_rizzo_/status/1787452338354991114 Biden Economics Adviser Tacitly Admits He Doesn't Understand Economics In the video, an excerpt from the new leftist documentary Finding the Money, Jared Bernstein, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, discusses modern monetary theory—the idea that the federal government could eliminate the national debt simply by printing money. To say Bernstein's musings on the topic lack coherence is an understatement: https://twitter.com/Geiger_Capital/status/1786377408993468714?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1786377408993468714%7Ctwgr%5E7c3b556f8c4e4d8b4c44e8b2698e7f87d0b14e1e%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fthefederalist.com%2F2024%2F05%2F06%2Fbidens-economics-adviser-tacitly-admits-he-doesnt-understand-economics%2F TAKE A LISTEN Source: thefederalist.com Political/Rights https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1787494425452802415 Boeing faces 10 more whistleblowers after two die: ‘People's lives are at stake' A second whistleblower has died under mysterious circumstances, just two months after another one allegedly shot himself in the head — and the attorneys for both men hope their deaths don't scare away the at least 10 more whistleblowers who want the company to clean up its act. Source: nypost.com So the [DS] knows that have criminals working in government, they are blackmailed and they know they are committing crimes all the time, this can be used against at any moment if they fall out of line. https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1786500978742575397?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1786500978742575397%7Ctwgr%5E9f71135dfd68e3648075421a2de1e4d878eeeef2%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thegatewaypundit.com%2F2024%2F05%2Fthey-lied-you-biden-regime-issues-rule-change%2F https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1787488419716677900 War BREAKING: Hamas Says They've Agreed to a Ceasefire as Israel Begins Rafah Operation; Israel Doesn't Agree On Monday Israel began its operation to take Rafah as part of its campaign to eliminate Hamas. An evacuation of civilians from the eastern side of the city coincided with targeted strikes, signaling that the long-awaited invasion of the terrorist government's last stronghold was underway. Advertisement That came after a rocket attack killed four IDF soldiers and injured 10 more on Sunday,

Episode 2464 CWSA 05/04/24

Real Coffee with Scott Adams

Play Episode Listen Later May 4, 2024 51:48

My book Reframe Your Brain, available now on Amazon https://tinyurl.com/3bwr9fm8 Find my "extra" content on Locals: https://ScottAdams.Locals.com Content: Politics, Jared Bernstein, Council of Economic Advisers, FJB Chant, 2020 Vote Polling, President Biden, ABC News President, Kimberly Godwin, Rep. Henry Cuellar, Corrupt Criminal Government, America First Legal, Mar-A-Lago Boxes, GSA, Anti-Trump Lawfare, Alex Soros Funding, Suing College Protesters, Antisemitism Bill, ADL, Rebuilding Gaza, Scott Adams ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ If you would like to enjoy this same content plus bonus content from Scott Adams, including micro-lessons on lots of useful topics to build your talent stack, please see scottadams.locals.com for full access to that secret treasure. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/scott-adams00/support

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Pres. Biden: U.S. does not seek conflict but ‘if you harm an American, we will respond'