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23 episodes with qe4
5 episodes with qe4
2 episodes with qe4
2 episodes with qe4
2 episodes with qe4
2 episodes with qe4
2 episodes with qe4
Lost Piece Exercise: The audio will tell you the position of most of the pieces on the board. Can you work out where the missing piece is meant to be? To learn more about Don't Move Until You See It and get the free 5-day Conceptualizing Chess Series, head over to https://dontmoveuntilyousee.it/conceptualization FEN for today's exercise: k7/7N/8/8/4Q3/1P4B1/2r2PPP/6K1 b - - 0 1 And the answer is... Qe4
Opening Exercise: The audio will lead you through a series of moves from the beginning of a game. At a certain point, one player will make a mistake and it'll be your job to find the move to punish it. To learn more about Don't Move Until You See It and get the free 5-day Conceptualizing Chess Series, head over to https://dontmoveuntilyousee.it/conceptualization PGN for today's exercise: 1. d4 d5 2. c4 e5 3. dxe5 d4 4. e3 Bb4+ 5. Bd2 dxe3 6. Bxb4 exf2+ 7. Ke2 (7. Kxf2 Qxd1) 7... fxg1=N+ 8. Ke1 Qh4+ 9. g3 Qe4+ 10. Kf2 Qxh1 * And the answer is... 11. exf2
Andy Levin is a professor of economics at Dartmouth University and a former senior staffer at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Christina Parajon Skinner is a legal scholar at the University of Pennsylvania and formerly was legal counsel to the Bank of England. Andy and Christina have co-authored a new article titled, *Central Bank Undersight: Assessing the Fed's Accountability to Congress,* and they rejoin David on Macro Musings to talk about it. Specifically, they discuss the Fed's power under a constitutional authority, the three sources of Fed undersight, proposals for reform, and more. Transcript for this week's episode. Andrew's Twitter: @andrewtlevin Andrew's Dartmouth profile Christina's Twitter: @CParaSkinner Christina's UPenn profile David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Central Bank Undersight: Assessing the Fed's Accountability to Congress* by Andrew Levin and Christina Parajon Skinner *Andrew Levin on the Costs and Benefits of QE4 and the Future of the Fed's Balance Sheet* by Macro Musings
Lyn Alden is a macroeconomist and investment strategist. In this interview, we discuss her latest article: How the Fed “Went Broke”. Lyn explains how for the first time in modern history the Federal Reserve is operating at a loss. We talk about the ramifications in terms of continuing high inflation, the bankruptcy of government agencies, and the impacts on the Fed's independence. - - - - Bitcoin was born when the global economic machine was showing signs of a terminal illness. Since then, governments around the world are trying to keep the system alive, using measures that will in fact hasten its demise. Due to misaligned political incentives, greed and ignorance, the world's economy is now entering an unprecedented period of serious economic trauma. Government bailouts are not new. Alexander Hamilton in 1792 used federal funds to prevent the collapse of the securities market. However, it was the use of Quantitative Easing (QE) to prop up the financial system during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) when the Rubicon was crossed. The Fed bought over $2 trillion of commercial bank assets in 2008/9, paid for through an increase in the monetary base. The main problem with the GFC was governments became tolerant of the new drug of choice: QE leading to an erosion of market discipline. QE3 started in late 2012, was nicknamed “QE infinity”. It result in $4.5 trillion of commercial bank assets being bought by the Fed. QE4, in response to the Covid pandemic, resulted in the Fed purchasing another $2 trillion of assets. Since 2008, the monetary base in the US has increased by 750%. The inevitable result is inflation. The response by central banks is to increase interest rates, a tool that doesn't apply to the problem at hand: unsustainable levels of debt. Higher interest affects the cost of their liabilities, such that they are now, for the first time ever, in negative equity. They are “broke”. What the markets know but politicians aren't willing to accept is that this is a new paradigm. The UK Prime Minister Liz Truss was ousted after only 49 days when markets decided unfunded tax cuts with debt to GDP over 100% were irresponsible. The growing realisation is that budget deficits need to be cut. Smaller governments are likely whether people want them or not.
“What they did back in 2008…they said, ‘Well, we're going to create a tonne of new base money, we're going to buy some of those assets to reliquefy the system.' And so, it's not an exaggeration to say it's essentially like a Ponzi scheme, it's something that has to keep growing in order to function.”— Lyn AldenLyn Alden is a macroeconomist and investment strategist. In this interview, we discuss her latest article: How the Fed “Went Broke”. Lyn explains how for the first time in modern history the Federal Reserve is operating at a loss. We talk about the ramifications in terms of continuing high inflation, the bankruptcy of government agencies, and the impacts on the Fed's independence.- - - - Bitcoin was born when the global economic machine was showing signs of a terminal illness. Since then, governments around the world are trying to keep the system alive, using measures that will in fact hasten its demise. Due to misaligned political incentives, greed and ignorance, the world's economy is now entering an unprecedented period of serious economic trauma. Government bailouts are not new. Alexander Hamilton in 1792 used federal funds to prevent the collapse of the securities market. However, it was the use of Quantitative Easing (QE) to prop up the financial system during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) when the Rubicon was crossed. The Fed bought over $2 trillion of commercial bank assets in 2008/9, paid for through an increase in the monetary base.The main problem with the GFC was governments became tolerant of the new drug of choice: QE leading to an erosion of market discipline. QE3 started in late 2012, was nicknamed “QE infinity”. It result in $4.5 trillion of commercial bank assets being bought by the Fed. QE4, in response to the Covid pandemic, resulted in the Fed purchasing another $2 trillion of assets. Since 2008, the monetary base in the US has increased by 750%. The inevitable result is inflation. The response by central banks is to increase interest rates, a tool that doesn't apply to the problem at hand: unsustainable levels of debt. Higher interest affects the cost of their liabilities, such that they are now, for the first time ever, in negative equity. They are “broke”. What the markets know but politicians aren't willing to accept is that this is a new paradigm. The UK Prime Minister Liz Truss was ousted after only 49 days when markets decided unfunded tax cuts with debt to GDP over 100% were irresponsible. The growing realisation is that budget deficits need to be cut. Smaller governments are likely whether people want them or not. - - - - This episode's sponsors:Gemini - Buy Bitcoin instantlyIris Energy - Bitcoin Mining. Done Sustainably Ledn - Financial services for Bitcoin hodlersBitcasino - The Future of Gaming is hereLedger - State of the art Bitcoin hardware walletFortris - Digital asset treasury operationsWasabi Wallet - Privacy by default-----WBD627 - Show Notes-----If you enjoy The What Bitcoin Did Podcast you can help support the show by doing the following:Become a Patron and get access to shows early or help contributeMake a tip:Bitcoin: 3FiC6w7eb3dkcaNHMAnj39ANTAkv8Ufi2SQR Codes: BitcoinIf you do send a tip then please email me so that I can say thank youSubscribe on iTunes | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | YouTube | Deezer | TuneIn | RSS FeedLeave a review on iTunesShare the show and episodes with your friends and familySubscribe to the newsletter on my websiteFollow me on Twitter Personal | Twitter Podcast | Instagram | Medium | YouTubeIf you are interested in sponsoring the show, you can read more about that here or please feel free to drop me an email to discuss options.
Andrew Levin is a professor of economics at Dartmouth College and a former long-time Fed official. Andy is also a previous guest of Macro Musings and rejoins the podcast to talk about the costs and benefits of the Fed's QE4 program. David and Andy also discuss the Fed's recent record on inflation, QE4's impact on market functioning, the present and future of the Fed's balance sheet, and more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Andrew's Dartmouth profile Andrew's NBER archive David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Related Links: *Quantifying the Costs and Benefits of Quantitative Easing* by Andrew Levin, Brian Lu, and William Nelson *Incorporating Scenario Analysis into the Federal Reserve's Policy Strategy and Communications* by Michael Bordo, Andrew Levin, and Mickey Levy *What if the Federal Reserve Books Losses Because of its Quantitative Easing?* by William English and Donald Kohn
PART 01: Fifty years ago the "Nixon Shock" closed the 'Gold Window' on "international speculators" and killed the Bretton Woods gold exchange era. That's what we're told. Actually, Bretton Woods died a decade (or more!) earlier; it's just that we only noticed in 1971.PART 02: The IMF will 'print' $650 billion -- BILLION! -- in SDR-money to help with global liquidity. BIG numbers! BIG Deal! But we've heard this before from the IMF, like in 2009, their last BIGGEST EVER allocation, which was as effective as QE1, QE2, QE3, QE4, QE5, QE6... PART 03: "This might be one of the biggest downward revisions I have ever observed," says Jeff Snider. The benchmark revision to Real Personal Income ERASED billions of dollars in presumed earnings from US workers since 2015, and especially in 2020 to 2021. "Truly stunning."-----SEE EPISODE 94-------Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL-----HEAR EPISODE 94-----Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----EP. 94a REFERENCES----No Matter What They Say, the Future Isn't Inflationary: https://bit.ly/3AjfK6NRealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7----EP. 94b REFERENCES----Sophistry Dressed (as) Reallocation: https://bit.ly/3rZOhUMAlhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlin----EP. 94c REFERENCES----Inflation Estimates (PCE) *Totally* Overshadowed By Benchmark Income Revisions, And The (Deflationary) Implications of Them: https://bit.ly/3yB5JkY-----------WHO-------------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Sweet Distraction" by Ealot from Epidemic Sound.
In this episode, Jeff Otis talks with Evergreen Chief Investment Officer, David Hay, about what we are watching right now. Topics discussed include: -What is QE4? -How does the stock market affect the bond market? -What does it mean to be an active income manager? -If inflation is to be expected, how imminent is it? -Bonus question: Dave's favorite film As always, we hope you enjoy the listen! This material has been prepared or is distributed solely for informational purposes only and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. Any opinions, recommendations, and assumptions included in this piece are based upon current market conditions, reflect the personal opinions of the featured guest, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Evergreen Investment Committee as a whole. Investment decisions for Evergreen clients are made by the Evergreen Investment Committee. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investments involve risk including the loss of principal. Securities highlighted or discussed in this piece have been selected based on current events and/or relevant topics and are not intended to represent Evergreen’s performance or be an indicator for how Evergreen has performed or may perform in the future. Each security discussed has been selected solely for this purpose and has not been selected based on performance or any performance-related criteria. Evergreen’s portfolios are actively managed and securities discussed in this piece may or may not be held in such portfolios at any given time.
1. Today is options expiration for the month of September. As I have stated before this is a quarterly expiration so there are 4 different asset classes expiring this week. It is called quadruple witching options expiration. Yesterday was a very wild day in the market, it was filled with a ton of whipsaw throughout the day. I do not expect that kind of action today. By now, the institutional market makers have likely finished up with the options expiration games that get played every month. Volume will tell me what kind of day this will be, but it will not have the whipsaw like we saw yesterday. 2. Economy is improving, a lot of the good news is factored in. Much of it supported by central bank intervention. QE4 has been unprecedented. We’ve seen a tech shakeout. TSLA hung in. It topped out on 9-1 and then hit a bottom on 9-8. Typical game. Upside is limited. EV stocks have been strong. Just look at the charts. At this stage everyone goes EVphoria. 3. Gold and silver, gold futures up. Silver flat. GDX flat. A quiet day for gold. It’s been basing for nearly 2 months.
Aired On: Oct 26, 2019 This is the third appearance of Dr. Jim Willie on for a Kickin' It Session and we talk about the Repo Market turmoil and which bank is actually the catalyst of it, QE4 and it's permanency, the difference between shadow banking and derivatives markets and we debate whether or not Bitcoin is cash or is an asset, and lastly his affinity towards blockchain over crypto currencies. We also touch briefly on Veritaseum and Reggie Middleton's SEC case of fraud and his thoughts on the outcome of it. Visit The Golden Jackass Website: https://www.golden-jackass.com/ Donate to Jim Willie to help with his needs in Costa Rica: https://www.golden-jackass.com/donate --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/crypto-blood/support
Post-crisis reforms following the 2008-10 financial crisis massively changed the structure of markets. Perhaps the most important structural change was the increased concentration of clearing of almost all assets and derivatives into Central Counterparties (CCPs). Very little consideration was given at the time to narrow categories of high quality liquid assets required by CCPs for initial margin, and the pro-cyclical liquidity demands CCPs make through additional initial and variation margin calls when markets come under stress. These factors both became critical in March 2020 when the Covid-19 crisis communicated to financial markets, forcing a sharp re-pricing of assets globally. CCPs responded to the volatility by raising initial margin demands and issuing large variation margin demands reflecting market re-pricing. The liquidity shocks transmitted to asset markets, bringing even the US Treasuries market close to collapse. Central banks were forced to step in as ‘dealer-of-last-resort' to calm markets with various initiatives including QE4, emergency liquidity support, and roll-back of Basel III capital requirements on securities dealers. In recent weeks a review of CCP risks, resilience and recovery mechanisms has begun which will determine the structure of CCP risk management going forward. In this webinar Kathleen Tyson will review the crisis response of CCPs and central banks, and the FSB Consultative Document on CCP resilience and recovery (deadline 21 July). Martin Watkins will comment based on his experience of CCP reforms post-crisis. Michael Mainelli will lead the discussion and Q&A. Speakers: Kathleen Tyson, chief executive of Granularity, provides consultancy on central bank and CCP risk management, resiliency planning, and systems modernisation. As a former central banker, supervisor, and executive at Cedel (now Clearstream) she contributed to early work on the Principles for Financial Markets Infrastructures. As a consultant she has helped build PFMI compliance into infrastructure development and modernisation for clients globally, and led the way in integrating emerging technologies, including blockchain. She is widely recognised as an industry thought leader on how well-intentioned regulatory reforms can have unwelcome consequences as they skew market structure, market liquidity, risk management, and resolution outcomes. Martin Watkins is a former practitioner with 25 years' experience of advising and managing systemically important financial market business. As Chief Executive of Cournswood Group, he provides FMI specific advice on strategy, governance, regulatory change, PFMI compliance and operational resilience. A former member of AtosEuronext executive management and Division Head for Clearing based in Paris, Martin spent the past 7 years advising clients as EMEIA Lead for Exchanges and FMI at EY. He will comment based on his experience of CCP reforms post-crisis. Interested in watching our webinars live, or taking part in the production of our research? Join our community at: https://bit.ly/3sXPpb5
"The Federal Reserve's market operations are ramping up by the day, and it's using more tools simultaneously to “fix” markets than ever before. So what are these tools and how is the Fed using them?" - Colin Harper Wondering what is happening in the hurricane that is finance and finding it difficult to piece together all of the puzzle. You aren't alone. Colin Harper has a great new addition to Bitcoin Magazine to help make sense of all the jargon of Repo markets, interest rates, zero reserve, QE4 to infinity, and the rest. Don't miss it! Link to the original article: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/zero-interest-limitless-repo-and-qe4-the-federal-reserves-market-operations-explained Don't forget that SwanBitcoin.com is now live! Start stacking your sats now! Set a weekly, every paycheck, or every month purchase and even auto-withdrawal to your own keys! With Swan Bitcoin you'll never have to wonder again if you are stacking for the future, set it once and forget it. Other great content I've enjoyed recently to dig further: • Tales from the Crypt with Charles Marohn: https://open.spotify.com/episode/3VE9cgPq32Ynd78rYDvfeA • Swan Signal with Parker Lewis & Giacomo Zucco: https://citizenbitcoin.world/episodes/giacomo-zucco-and-parker-lewis-on-swan-signal-live-By5ZBPnv • Hayek's Use of Knowledge in Society: Part 1: https://anchor.fm/thecryptoconomy/episodes/CryptoQuikRead_250---Use-of-Knowledge-in-Society-Part-1---F--A--Hayek-e43pfj Part 2: https://anchor.fm/thecryptoconomy/episodes/CryptoQuikRead_251---Use-of-Knowledge-in-Society-Part-2---F--A--Hayek-e444k0 • On The Brink: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/jurrien-timmer-fidelity-on-the-global-macro-landscape-ep-58/id1480586463?i=1000469486863 --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/bitcoinaudible/message
"The Federal Reserve’s market operations are ramping up by the day, and it’s using more tools simultaneously to “fix” markets than ever before. So what are these tools and how is the Fed using them?" - Colin Harper Wondering what is happening in the hurricane that is finance and finding it difficult to piece together all of the puzzle. You aren't alone. Colin Harper has a great new addition to Bitcoin Magazine to help make sense of all the jargon of Repo markets, interest rates, zero reserve, QE4 to infinity, and the rest. Don't miss it! Link to the original article: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/zero-interest-limitless-repo-and-qe4-the-federal-reserves-market-operations-explained Don't forget that SwanBitcoin.com is now live! Start stacking your sats now! Set a weekly, every paycheck, or every month purchase and even auto-withdrawal to your own keys! With Swan Bitcoin you'll never have to wonder again if you are stacking for the future, set it once and forget it. Other great content I've enjoyed recently to dig further: • Tales from the Crypt with Charles Marohn: https://open.spotify.com/episode/3VE9cgPq32Ynd78rYDvfeA • Swan Signal with Parker Lewis & Giacomo Zucco: https://citizenbitcoin.world/episodes/giacomo-zucco-and-parker-lewis-on-swan-signal-live-By5ZBPnv • Hayek's Use of Knowledge in Society: Part 1: https://anchor.fm/thecryptoconomy/episodes/CryptoQuikRead_250---Use-of-Knowledge-in-Society-Part-1---F--A--Hayek-e43pfj Part 2: https://anchor.fm/thecryptoconomy/episodes/CryptoQuikRead_251---Use-of-Knowledge-in-Society-Part-2---F--A--Hayek-e444k0 • On The Brink: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/jurrien-timmer-fidelity-on-the-global-macro-landscape-ep-58/id1480586463?i=1000469486863 --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/thecryptoconomy/message
Headlines from major financial sources virtually shouted that the Federal Reserve was suddenly employing “QE4” — quantitative easing — in a massive way to calm the bond markets roiled by the coronavirus. The Wall Street Journal declared: “Fed to Inject $1.5 Trillion” into the bond market while CNN shouted: “NY Fed to pump in $1.5 trillion to fight coronavirus-linked ‘highly unusual disruptions’ on Wall Street.” Read the article here!
Welcome to Finance and Fury Today – going to cover the Central banking playbook in the next crisis – If there is ever going to be one! Today – was doing some reading so will have a look at some comments from key central banking figures over the past few years – and look at the market implications – as either markets will crash at some point and central banks will conduct bail-ins and also buy up shares – or they will actively try to avoid a crash by a BOJ strategy – constantly buying shares and offering incentives (continued low-interest rates) for investors to continue investing To start with - Back in June 2017 - several key officials provided some bizarre honesty in their statements – all of this occurred from individuals under Janet Yellen's Federal reserve – Now the Fed Chair is Jerome Powell – appointed by Trump – but the playbook likely hasn’t changed – Let's have a look though at the statements from back in 2017 – rare to get anything from Fed officials for the market implications of their comments - First - San Fran Fed president John Williams – now become the Fed's #2 as he took over as head of the NY Fed in 2019 (major Fed Branch) – he said "there seems to be a priced-to-perfection attitude out there” and that the stock market rally "still seems to be running very much on fumes." He also added that "we are seeing some reach for yield, and some, maybe, excess risk-taking in the financial system with very low rates. As we move interest rates back to more normal, I think that that will, people will pull back on that." But what happened when they announced an increase of rates back in Mid-2018 – markets dropped by more than 10% over a few months until they cancelled the plans of increases Next – has the then-Fed Vice Chairman Stan Fischer – echoed John Williams' statements - that "the increase in prices of risky assets in most asset markets over the past six months points to a notable uptick in risk appetites” all thanks to the lower interest rate environments creating people chasing yields – All of this occurring when the measures of earnings strength – like the return on assets, continued to approach pre-GFC crisis levels at most banks But given the interest rates were a lot lower - the return on assets should have been expected to have declined relative to their pre-crisis levels--and that fact is also a cause for concern." Fischer then also said that the corporate sector is "notably leveraged", that it would be foolish to think that all risks have been eliminated, and called for "close monitoring" of rising risk appetites. Essentially – what was covered in the corporate debt episode – as listed companies have taken on massive levels of debts and if rates were to normalise – their earnings would be destroyed by the interest repayments Lastly - you have the lady herself – the then-Fed Chair Janet Yellen – she said that some asset prices had become “somewhat rich" although, like Fischer, she wanted to assure the public that share and bond prices are fine – but what she left out was that they are fine as long as you assume that we will be in a record low-interest rate environment in perpetuity – as her next statement points out - “Asset valuations are somewhat rich if you use some traditional metrics like price-earnings ratios, but I wouldn’t try to comment on appropriate valuations, and those ratios ought to depend on long-term interest rates." So as long as interest rates don’t go up – the PE ratios of some of the largest companies in the US at 100 times is fine – given a lot of their growth of price is backed off debt and buy backs Quick reminder - back in 2017 at the time of these statements - the S&P500 was trading at "only" 2,400 – back when the Fed was only starting to consider a hike in interest rates and QE4 was more than two years away – thanks to not raising rates and the implementation of QE4 – S&P500 now at 3,386 – all time highs – Digging a little deeper – one of the more interesting things that Yellen said was in response to a question on financial system stability - Yellen said that the implementation of the post-crisis regulations had made financial institutions much "safer and sounder", and as a result she went on to predict that there would never again be a financial crisis "in our lifetimes" – her actual statement was - "Will I say there will never, ever be another financial crisis? No, probably that would be going too far. But I do think we’re much safer and I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes and I don’t believe it will." First – she was 71 at the time – so maybe she was expecting an early grave - While some were quick to compare this statement by Yellen (who then was 70--years old) to Neville Chamberlain infamous - and very, very wrong - 1938 prediction of "peace in our time", perhaps she was hiding a trump card all along... A trump card which she revealed only now, almost three years later. But what I find more interesting is that someone in her position may just be saying this to help provide confidence to the market – however – the fact she refers to legislation changes – such as the SIB and SIFI regulations and controls over the market which could ban trading and shut down markets during times of crashes – seems like she knows more to the story Which makes me think that she meant something else – such as when looking at the transcripts when she was speaking via a video conference with bankers in Kansas City - Yellen said that the Fed would take a page out of the SNB's (Swiss national bank) and BOJ's (Bank of Japan) playbook - and "might be able to help the U.S. economy in a future downturn if it could buy stocks and corporate bonds." Of course – she didn’t mean the whole "US economy" – for instance, every worker and person who pays tax – but those who own the most amount of these assets – the Fed and other financial institutions/investment managers and their political cronies. This being said – on the public surface - Yellen was quick to walk back this "hypothetical" scenario, saying that "the issue was not a pressing one right now" and pointed out the U.S. central bank is currently barred by law from buying corporate assets – but the laws can change The idea was already "incepted" in the heads of America's political rulers (whose fate is just as tied to the performance of the stock market) and the law can be changed literally overnight. Similar to SSC – politicians have a lot of money in markets – and rely on the markets as a sign of economic health – even though it is not – look at Bloomberg – 9th richest man on earth running for President – has a lot of wealth in markets And after all, it is only a matter of time before a crisis does hit, and now Yellen has explained has to happen to avoid an all out social catastrophe in a country where financial assets account for nearly 6x of GDP – all time high compared to average pre-90s of 3 times GDP To validate her point, Yellen said that the Fed’s current toolkit might be insufficient in a downturn if it were to “reach the limits in terms of purchasing safe assets like longer-term government bonds." "It could be useful to be able to intervene directly in assets where the prices have a more direct link to spending decisions,” – referring to the wealth effect – where economists and central bankers still rely on this as a basis to help boost GDP growth by getting people to spend more – Regardless – Yellen said that the Fed buying equities and corporate bonds could have costs and benefits... But mostly benefits, if only for the Fed, and those in the know – who would get very rich. Keep in mind that what Yellen said was merely a paraphrase of Ben Bernanke's famous April 2010 Washing Post oped in which he defended his use of easy monetary policy in facilitating higher stock prices – again, the idea is to boost asset prices to – quoting from Bernanke here - "to boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending. Increased spending will lead to higher incomes and profits that, in a virtuous circle, will further support economic expansion." None of these policies are really true or "trickle-down" economics - which isn’t a thing – it is a design – central planning similar to communist countries – in China – all the building of ghost cities using tax payers funds goes to the Communist party members who own the construction companies – and in the US and Western societies – this wealth goes to those who own the assets that own the shares and bonds – in US society – top 10% of people who own 93% of all equities – again a choice to participate – but those who did own shares have gotten great returns – I am technically one But these haven’t been real returns – and doesn’t provide a free market – supply side economic gain for all - Bottom of Form – as the bottom 90% of the population who own virtually no stocks and owe most of the debt, got very, very angry as they watched how the Fed plundered their future and hopes to become wealthy, and resulted first in the election of Trump, and the upcoming election of a socialist candidate as America goes full-on populist in response to the Fed's catastrophic policies. However, thanks to Yellen we now know that the Fed won't go down without a fight... or at least without monetising everything – whilst Yellen is no longer the chair of the Fed – just last month she told a conference the Fed would fight a future recession by buying government debt and jawboning interest rates lower But she did add that other tools will be necessary - including expanding the range of assets it would purchase – i.e. shares Painting a picture that before the current fiat regime of central banks finally ends and before stocks go limits up as the revolution starts, the Fed will order a Permanent open market operations (or POMO) of, well, everything in one final, last-ditch effort to keep social stability by creating the impression that stocks are stable and rising even as society implodes Genius strategy – expand the fiat system massively to buy real assets – like shares and bonds – then switch monetary bases once the value of fiat goes to almost nothing Begs the question - Will it be successful? Normally – long term I would say that it won’t be = but when we consider that that's precisely what has been happening for the past decade - have to think really hard just how much further the Fed can keep kicking the can before it all comes crashing down – it will likely continue to keep markets high until they decide to cease the expanded operations in the markets But the Next Level – this is what is an additional concern What happens when the central banks own most of the shares in companies? Say they do buy up a majority of corporates and have an influence on these companies Central banks are pushing for climate change reforms – getting involved where they don’t belong – Every central bank is now on the same page – repeating the same UN talking points But as a shareholder – you get voting rights – so Fed could gain access to control of the “private” (use the term loosely) markets – beyond the control over Governments and their debt they currently have Central banks like the SNB and BOJ already own a large chunk of their share markets – question is – do they get voting rights and how would they use them? Control the board and decisions of a company So under this system – Zombie companies will reign supreme – Those that the Central banks own can technically be propped up regardless of the money they continue to lose – Banks would become more involved to help their balance sheet grow - Therefore, there would be no free market of companies rising and falling based around their performance – The injections of printed money will save them from their declines in prices – so, whilst their performances suffer and they lose money – their prices will continue to rise - Summary With Central banking intervention into markets – they can keep coming up with schemes – SSC and Blunt – keep coming up with something for prices to go up – but inevitably – the complex system of markets beats out = the markets can correct and have done so. All comes down to Central banking hubris – that they think they are supreme and solve every economic problem – A long way from their early charters of being the bank of last resort – just to provide liquidity to commercial banks in the event of bank runs – now they can control markets and the very cost of money. Thank you for listening to today's episode. If you want to get in contact you can do so here: http://financeandfury.com.au/contact/
Should you be worried about the coronavirus? The coronavirus is the next black swan that was strategically planned as the global economy corrodes. Our economy is extremely fragile and it wouldn't take much for it to collapse if the coronavirus gets out of hand. Tonight we will talk about he latest news and figure out what's going on as we face a global health crisis like the coronavirus. This week we will have the FOMC provide their analysis as to where they see the economy and I would anticipate the Board of Governors being proactive with a possible slashing of interest rates or an official announcement out-right QE4. What do you think? Watch the full livestream on the RTD YouTube channel here: https://youtu.be/3C8PUqpU80Y
In 2019 Craig Hemke made the most accurate gold call of any analyst out there. He said that the Fed would be cutting rates in September, he was two months late. Best of all, the gold price acted as he forecast. Fed debt is increasing geometrically with no end in sight. Where will that leave gold and the dollar? Right now gold is in the mid 1550’s, with more increases on the way. It’s all connected with the Repo melt-down and QE4. The deficit isn’t going away, the only way it can be paid is by direct monetization, which is well underway. The Fed was late releasing it's latest meeting minutes, where they admitted that if the risk of liquidity continues they’ll be increasing monetization to shorter duration of securities. Anyone can see it happening before our very eyes. Click here to get Craig's free report...
In 2019 Craig Hemke made the most accurate gold call of any analyst out there. He said that the Fed would be cutting rates in September, he was two months late. Best of all, the gold price acted as he forecast. Fed debt is increasing geometrically with no end in sight. Where will that leave gold and the dollar? Right now gold is in the mid 1550’s, with more increases on the way. It’s all connected with the Repo melt-down and QE4. The deficit isn’t going away, the only way it can be paid is by direct monetization, which is well underway. The Fed was late releasing it's latest meeting minutes, where they admitted that if the risk of liquidity continues they’ll be increasing monetization to shorter duration of securities. Anyone can see it happening before our very eyes. Click here to get Craig's free report...
Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jim Bianco to MacroVoices. They discuss Jim’s views on Zoltan Pozsar’s theory of repo dislocation, if QE4 is imminent in the near future and what’s on the horizon for the bond market and the fixed income market & moreLink: http://bit.ly/2tvZOAY
Yes, it is QE4. We lay out the reasons for the market rally as well as why we are seeing the continuation of a move higher. An update of economics as well as insights on the status of the trade deal. Plus – listener questions answered. Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on […]
Stock markets hit new highs again this week. If you believe the headlines, the bullishness on Wall Street is mostly a function of trade deal optimism. But there's another factor driving stocks higher - easy money courtesy of Federal Reserve (not) quantitative easing. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey talks about the impact QE4 is having on the markets and some delicious irony courtesy of a paper published by the central bank that admits its own policy might just be a problem. You can visit the show notes page here: https://bit.ly/2R8XF8l Tune in to the Friday Gold Wrap each week for a recap of the week’s economic and political news as it relates to gold and silver, along with some insightful commentary. For more information visit https://schiffgold.com/news.
Welcome to Finance and Fury Last week - The lead up of markets in relation to complexity theory – phase transitions and feedback loops in markets https://financeandfury.com.au/how-to-analyse-share-markets-by-treating-them-as-a-complex-system/ Today – look at the question - How do we know that we are in for a collapse – or better - what are the early warning signs in of a change in feedback loops triggering a phase transition a complex system There are signals – complexity can pick up on but equilibrium can’t – Uber listing on the market with $1.5bn loss – signal Today's episode is a conceptual framework expanding on the previous episode – particularly focus on market fragility and what signals point to it increasing The last episode talked about how after a while the same positive feedback loop can create an increased instability in financial markets – this can occur between public and private investors – but after enough of the same feedback – exposes markets to the risk of a systemic risk escalation. But what sort of events act as generic early warning signals for chaos? – i.e. phase transition in the markets To start – how is the probability of critical transformations assessed? What acts as early warning signals? Preface this – nobody can ever predict the exact point at which the system transforms – going through a phase transition of stable to collapse – financial markets are stochastic system - having a random probability distribution or pattern that may be analysed statistically but may not be predicted precisely Events that push the market out of equilibrium happen randomly – at any time – but the probability of one event triggering a collapse is low if the markets around a long term equilibrium between buyers and sellers – No net money entering or leaving the market But when more net money enters or leaves markets - what we can see is when the system (share market) has become inherently unstable, fragile, vulnerable – see bigger chances of large gains or losses Lots of money entering markets – through feedback loops - starts to exponentially increase the chances of anyone small perturbed event being the trigger for critical phase transition – right now All about probability – increasing with the nature of markets and the early warning signs Another preface – expansion of similar policies that have created a bubble are currently continuing – QE4, printing press with cheap money – may create more of a bull run in the markets over the next 12 months But these events create more of a fragile market – so while the markets may run for the next few months to years, the collapse will be of a bigger magnitude when it occurs When markets collapse – it is chaos – thankfully a school of complexity theory helps with this – that is chaos theory Jeff Goldblum – his character from Jurassic Park is a mathematician who specialises in chaos theory Chaos theory is very useful when the apparent randomness of chaotic complex systems (such as a share market) has an underlying pattern, along with feedback loops creating repetition and self-similarity and self-organization The metaphor for this behaviour is that a butterfly flapping its wings in China can cause a hurricane in Texas – The butterfly effect describes how a small change in one state of a deterministic nonlinear system can result in large differences in a later state, meaning there is sensitive dependence on initial conditions. What is chaos theory a branch of mathematics focusing on the behaviour of dynamical systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions – looking at the theoretical probability of chances happening in non-linear models Initial conditions - called a seed value, is a value of an evolving variable at some point in time designated as the initial time – in financial markets – the variables change every second the market is open – number of buyers, sellers, currency exchange, employment, costs – many variables – at any given point – say now is time t – where do each of these lie? – then aims to look at the probability of something happening from here Chaos relates to the Sensitivity to initial conditions – this is a key characteristic of complex deterministic systems But due to the nature of complex systems – the system may change dramatically without a change to initial conditions, but rather as the result of moving beyond critical tipping points, or points of no return Why is it almost impossible to time market? Small differences in initial conditions- even due to rounding errors in numerical computation – so each calculation based around the assumptions can yield widely diverging outcomes - renders long-term prediction of market behaviour impossible - behaviour is known as chaos: Chaos: When the present determines the future, but the approximate present does not approximately determine the future. All this means is that markets may collapse at any time for any number of reasons – hence chaotic - Collapses are well explained by the nature of complex systems – due to the features of complex systems – go through 6 main: Cascading failures – there is a high level of interconnection in complex systems – lots of buyers and sellers following a crowd – creates a strong coupling between components in complex systems – i.e. buyers and sellers and the shares themselves A failure in one or more components can lead to cascading failures which may have catastrophic consequences on the functioning of the system – cascading is thanks to interconnection Localised attack may lead to cascading failures and abrupt collapse in spatial networks. Complex systems can be open systems – like the share market which is frequently far from energetic equilibrium: This is fundamental analysis – what is the share worth based on the FCF models – and what is it trading at But despite this flux, there may be pattern stability Complex systems may have a memory - The history of a complex system is important due to the cyclical nature of human/investor behaviour – being driven by fundamental human emotions of fear and freed Because complex systems are dynamical systems they change over time, and prior states may have an influence on present states. More formally, complex systems often exhibit spontaneous failures and recovery as well as hysteresis. Interacting systems may have complex hysteresis of many transitions – crowd behaviour and panics/hysteria Dynamic network of multiplicity - dynamic network of a complex system – how connected is the system to the environment? The system is the market – the environment is the world – i.e. every part that interacts with the market from wages, confidence, debt level Relationships are non-linear - In practical terms, this means a small perturbation may cause a large effect – i.e. the butterfly effect - a proportional effect, or even no effect at all. In linear systems, effect is always directly proportional to cause Relationships contain feedback loops - Both negative (damping) and positive (amplifying) feedback are always found in complex systems The effects of an element's behaviour are fed back to in such a way that the element itself is altered but in the non-linear fashion Current signs and signals - See a lot of listing on share markets – seen it with tech companies that aren’t making money but are listing on the exchange – payment platforms, tech start-ups, ones like Uber – signs of a peaking of markets Derivative counter party positions are at an all time high - $1,200 Trillion estimate Cost of borrowing all time lows – free money to bankers so no risks for gambling – if you could gamble on CC for 0% interest? Aus banks offering Instalment warrants – geared equity products being issued in the billions – self-funding through dividend ETF bubble – passive inflows and technology – talked about this already – but of the $15trn printed recently by central banks - $10bn in passive ETF/alternative structures One of the biggest ones – Credit/lending in markets all time high in like NYSE – check out graph at website (Thanks to advisor perspectives for putting together) Back in Dot Com bubble – Negative balance 130bn at peak – went to -45bn while market dropped 47% Back in Pre-GFC 2007 October 2019 – sitting at $240bn but was at $330bn back in July 2018 Stable/slowdown into Chaotic – Phase transition – The lag between net leverage being withdrawn from markets - Occurs every time – cyclical non-deterministic patterns Markets go up – then go down – the size of the transitions can differ – it looks like a big one is due - Pretty heavy episode – leave it there Next episode - explore the current possible triggers for the markets Thanks for listening to today's episode. If you want to get in contact you can do so here: http://financeandfury.com.au/contact
James is back for Macroeconomics Corner!So how in the world is the jobs report made? James sets it straight.Speaking of...the S&P is a god damned monster. It crept up from 3,067 to 3,093.This bodes poorly for our all-in, sure thing buy on SPXS, the triple leveraged inverse S&P ETF.Back to the Why? Strong corporate earnings, the jobs report, optimism about China trade...blah...blah...blahBut what do the indicators look like? And what has the news cycle missed? QE4!On to Stock tip Corner!Bobby and Greg go yahtzee on UBER after the lockup expiration. Let's make the case.And back to Energy!Story time with a glass of wine. James will tell us the saga of Chesapeake Energy.
Get a market update. Next, I answer your listener questions: 1: How do I start if I know nothing about real estate? 2: What’s better: existing or new construction property? 3: How do I identify an “up-and-coming” neighborhood? 4: How do I raise the rent without losing the tenant? 5: What if there’s a recession? I bring you today’s show from Anchorage, AK. Next week, we discuss four-plexes. The following week, declining interest rates and more Fed money-printing. 1) My FREE E-book and Newsletter at: GetRichEducation.com/Book 2) Your actionable turnkey real estate investing opportunity: GREturnkey.com 3) Read my best-selling paperback: getbook.at/7moneymyths __________________ Resources mentioned: Credit Score help: MyFico.com Neighborhood Research: NeighborhoodScout.com City-Data.com Mortgage Loans: RidgeLendingGroup.com Turnkey Real Estate: NoradaRealEstate.com eQRP: Text “QRP” to 72000 or: TotalControlFinancial.com By texting QRP to 72000 and opting in, you will receive periodic marketing messages from eQRP Co. Message & data rates may apply. Reply “STOP” to cancel. JWB New Construction Turnkey: NewConstructionTurnkey.com Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Find Properties: GREturnkey.com Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Welcome to Get Rich Education, I’m your host Keith Weinhold. It’s YOUR listener questions today; What’s The Best Guidance For Beginners, Comparing New Construction vs. Existing Construction Property, How To Identify An Up-And-Coming Neighborhood, How To Raise The Rent Without Losing Your Tenant, and How To Position Yourself In The Event Of A Recession. All today, on Get Rich Education. ______________________ Welcome to Get Rich Education! I’m your host, Keith Weinhold with Episode 265 and I’m answering your listener questions today. First, let’s get you up-to-speed with our asset Class Whiparound. The Fed lowered rates last Wednesday by a quarter-point again. It IS their third quarter-point rate cut this year, bringing the upper bound of the Federal Funds rate down to 1.75% Just before air time here: Year-to-date, real estate is up 3.5% per the Freddie Mac Housing Price Index. The Case-Shiller National Home Price Index is at right about that same 3.5% appreciation rate. Next, the Freddie Mac numbers show us 30-year and 15-year mortgage interest rates are just a touch more than 1% lower than they were one year ago. Yes, your COST of money is cheaper now than it was either one year ago OR two years ago. The stock market has been thriving. The S&P 500 Index is up more than 21% YTD. It’s flirting with all-time highs, as its over 3,000 points now. Oil prices have not done so well, Down 17% year-over-year Oppositely, Gold has thrived as it’s up 17% just since the beginning of the year. Last week, the Commerce Department told us that GDP expanded at an annual rate of 1.9% through the 3rd quarter, falling slightly from 2% a quarter earlier. The rate of dollar inflation is currently 1.7% YOY as measured by the Consumer Price Index, which is tracked and published by the government’s Bureau Of Labor Statistics. With the way that they calculate inflation, I think it’s a little hard to believe that the true, diminished purchasing power of the dollar is only 1.7% per annum. I think that makes about as much sense as turning back the clocks back an hour like we all did the other night, personally. That’s our Asset Class Whiparound like we do here just once in a while. Let’s start with the first listener question … and I usually start off with a more beginner-type question - like this first one - and advance from there. This question comes from Jackie in Esko, Minnesota. Keith, I love your show. I’m 25 years old, just a year out of college with $22,000 in student loan debt, and I just began listening to you three weeks ago. Now I’m going back to listen from the very beginning, Episode 1. What is the best way for me to begin if I know absolutely nothing about RE? Thanks for the question, Jackie. Well, you’re on the right track with your learning by starting with Episode 1 of the Get Rich Education podcast. Bigger Pockets has some very well-populated FORUM that’s good for your learning. I’d also say, work on your credit score WHILE you’re learning about real estate investing. That’s important in a credit-based asset like real estate. Learn about what it takes to improve your FICO score at myfico.com Now, for a beginner, yes, it’s probably not the long-term answer that you want. But it can be helpful to have a W-2 job … at least in the short-term … before you go onto to dominate your own real estate empire. I mean … I had a day job for years. Not only does this income help you qualify for loans, but let’s look at some ideal day jobs that can help you advance your real estate CAREER at the same time. Now Jackie, I don’t know what your college degree was in … but if you’re a true devotee to real estate, consider that, even if you have to accept less income ... there are day jobs that can actually align with your path toward being a real estate investor. You could become a Property Manager for a management company. Now, that is a tough job but you will learn remarkable things about how real estate works from the inside. Property Management is perhaps the LEAST-RESPECTED job in all of real estate, but it’s perhaps the most important … at the same time and the manager is probably the investor’s #1 team member. Other day jobs that can help a real estate investor are: Being an Asset Manager, Financial Analyst, Real Estate Agent (of course), or a Mortgage Loan Officer. With any of those related jobs, you’re going to learn about things like sales, marketing, pricing, maintenance & repair, capital improvements, and bookkeeping. There are other benefits to making your day job … real estate-related. You’re going to get to know other people in the business - these could be your future collaborators. You’ll get to attend industry tradeshows. And of course, you’ll get substantial education and training. So, that’s just one course to consider for a beginning real estate investor. If you’ve got to work a day job before you build your empire anyway, it might as well align with what you’re truly MORE interested in long-term … yes, perhaps … even if you need to take a short-term pay hit. It’s just another angle for you to consider, Jackie. If you want one all-encompassing podcast episode that tells a beginner like you as much as you need to know as possible … all in less than one hour - check out GRE Episode 249, published just a few months ago. That episode is titled, “The Beginner’s Real Estate Investing Audio Guide” and it’s our most popular episode that I’ve done ALL year. Again, it’s Episode 249. Thanks for the question, Jackie. The next question comes from Tate in Providence, Rhode Island. Tate says, “Keith, I notice that today, more providers offer new construction investment property, but it usually doesn’t cash flow like existing properties do. Is it worth buying new construction for the lower maintenance costs involved?” Thanks, Tate. Alright Tate, let’s compare the pros & cons of buying Brand New Construction Rental Property vs. Existing Construction. And, this is a top-of-mind subject for me because I just wrote about this in Get Rich Education’s e-mail newsletter two weeks ago. What’s better: existing or new construction rental property? Like with most real estate answers: “It depends.” But because a “2-word answer” like “It depents” is really dissatisfying, let’s expand on this. There are at least 8 different criteria for each type. Before we look at your trade-offs with each type, understand that new construction turnkey property was almost non-existent until recently. That’s because during the housing crisis of 2007 – 2010, home prices fell far below replacement cost. Therefore, builders couldn’t make new developments feasible until existing property prices rose in this decade that we’ve had since the Great Recession. There was also an oversupply of housing back then. Absorption of existing housing took time before new construction made sense again. And supply has definitely been absorbed. In SO MANY markets today, the housing that makes the best rentals is undersupplied. That’s why new construction makes sense again - and why you’ve gradually seen more new construction income property be offered by providers these past few years. Let’s look at the advantages of both existing and new construction … and these are certainly broad generalizations ... First, with EXISTING Construction property - we’re talking seasoned properties here: Lower purchase price. Better cash flow. This is especially true in the early years. The early dollars are your most important as an investor. Established property. You’re pretty assured that the foundation won’t settle. You know that the topsoil grows grass. With EXISTING property, you’re in an established neighborhood. You already know who the neighbors are. More safety in your investment with existing property. You see, because residents have lived in established neighborhoods longer, they’re more likely to have substantial equity in their property. Now, why would you care if your neighbors next to your income property hold higher equity positions? If there’s a recession, this means that residents are less likely to walk away from their home. This hedges against foreclosures and a valuation downdrain - and this domino effect like we saw in the housing crisis 10 years ago. With EXISTING PROPERTY, you also have lower property taxes. Though there are also plenty of cases where this isn’t true, because an existing property could also mean it’s closer to the city center. Location. Because you’re often closer to parks and city centers … residents have shorter commute times. This aids in both attracting & retaining your tenant. Availability. In turnkey investment property, there are more existing structures available than new construction property. You can keep your timeline. Construction delays are less likely with existing property. Now that we’ve looked at what tilts in the favor of existing property - and it is a lot … let’s look at the advantages of Brand New Construction property. New Construction: You tend to get Better appreciation. Higher tenant quality. New features attract a larger tenant pool for you to choose from. Longer duration tenancies. It’s hard for a tenant to find a better situation, unless they leave to become a homeowner. You tend to have fewer maintenance costs with new construction property. Modern amenities. Layouts with open floor plans and a higher bathroom count. With new construction you often have lower property insurance costs. Better vendor warranties. Utilities. New homes are more energy efficient, lowering utility bills. However, the tenant often pays this for you, especially in single-family homes and duplexes. So, there they are - the advantages of existing property vs. new construction rental property. Of course, this is general guidance. Based on regional and other factors, you can surely find some “exceptions” to these criteria. But these trade-offs can help you decide what’s more important to you as a real estate investor. Excellent question from you there, Tate. The next question comes from Alex in Lyndhurst, New Jersey. Alex asks, “What’s the best resource for determining if a property that I want is in an up-and-coming neighborhood?” “The market is more important than the property - and a thriving metro doesn’t necessarily mean that every property is in the right neighborhood. Where do you do your own research?” Well, thanks for the question, Alex. In short, NeighborhoodScout.com is my favorite paid resource … … and City-Data is my favorite free resource. It’s spelled “City-hyphen-Data”.com Now, what makes Neighborhood Scout potentially worth paying for is that they’ve got investor-grade analytics and tools. Where the free resource, CityData is more for a “general public” user. But both resources tell you about things like crime rate, per capita income, vacancy rates, and virtually everything else for cities, zip codes, and even subdivisions. Of course, there are countless other resources in addition to those two. Be mindful that you aren’t just looking for neighborhoods that are safe, you’re looking for neighborhoods that are IMPROVING and both of these resources have backward-looking data so that you can track trends. Remember, in income property, you don’t really want to seek out “beautiful” because beautiful often doesn’t correlate with profitable for cash flow. But, of course, boarded-up, burnt-out buildings aren’t what you want to see either. So, as you’ll remember, it’s clean, safe, affordable, and functional. Are people out walking their pets at night? That might be a sign of neighborhood safety. The things that you can see through Google Street view are things like: are the streets relatively clean, are people mowing their lawns. If the neighborhood - at least looks - respectable … then tenants are likely respecting your property too. Too many “For Rent” or “For Sale” signs on a block might be bad sign. Of course, seeing a lot of signals of remodeling or new construction in a neighborhood - is one of the best signs that could possibly see for an improving neighbhorhood. The problem there - is that you’ve got to get in before a neighborhood is TOO improved. Otherwise, you’re going to be paying more for the property and the numbers won’t work. So, there you go, Alex - both some hard data resources for research - and softer signals for what might make for an up-and-coming neighborhood and a safe neighborhood. If you’ve got a question for me, go ahead and write in at info@getricheducation.com How do you raise the rent without losing your tenant, and then, what happens if there’s a real estate recession? That’s after this. I’m Keith Weinhold. You’re listening to Get Rich Education. _________________________ **COMMERCIALS** ___________________________ You’re listening to the show where you don’t follow money, you make money follow you. This is Get Rich Education. I’m your host Keith Weinhold. Ben from Osnabrook, Germany asks: “When it comes to raising the rent on a tenant, isn’t it better to just keep the rent the same & just … not raise it? Because the cost of losing that tenant with its greater vacancy time is usually more of a loss than if I’m not receiving that potentially higher rent amount each month.” And then Ben goes into a number of calculations that show his point. Yeah, thanks for this great question, Ben. This is the classic landlord’s conundrum. Do I raise the rent to “market rent” & risk losing the tenant - or do I forgo that greater rent amount and just remain complacent with occupancy at a BELOW-market rent amount? Let’s use an example here. Say you are renting a unit for $1,000. The tenant signs a one year lease for $1,000 … and after a year, when renewal time comes, you give notice that rent will be increasing from $1,000 to $1,040. A couple days later, your resident responds and tells you that they aren’t willing to pay more than $1,000, and if they must, they will go find another place to live. So you risk losing them. Yes, some tenants really will leave over just a $40 a month rent increase. Now you have a dilemma. You think that you CAN rent the unit to someone ELSE for $1,040. But on the other hand, you realize that it’ll take a month to turnover and re-rent the unit. You’ll also need to see that the carpets are cleaned, the blinds are replaced, and perhaps do some wall texturing and painting. So RE-renting this unit will cost you something … plus while this work is done & a new tenant would have to be sought … it might be one month of vacancy that you’d endure. The question you’re now asking yourself is, will it cost me MORE to turn this unit over & EVENTUALLY get $1,040 than it would to keep this tenant’s rent at $1,000 … and just keep them in place - ? Yes, it usually would. Numbers-wise, short-term, it’s better to just keep that existing tenant in-place and give them their way and keep the rent at $1,000. In this case, a LOST month of rent while you try to find a new tenant then … effectively costs you ... $1,040. Plus repairs, you might lose $1,600 on the turnover. On the other hand, NOT raising rents by this $40/month will only cost $480 for the year. Which loss would your rather take — $1,600 by turning the unit over - or $480 by keeping the same tenant there? You’d rather keep the tenant in there & only lose that $40 a month or $480 a year … rather than the $1,600 for the turnover & month of vacancy. Well, there’s a solution to this classic conundrum - and it won’t work every time, but the best thing that you can probably do - the way that you can have your cake and eat it too - which means both increase the rent and keep your tenant … is to make an improvement to your resident’s unit a month or two BEFORE you raise the rent. For example, if they don’t have a dishwasher, you can add a dishwasher or add a ceiling fan in the master bedroom if they don’t have one. Or make a minor remodel that makes that tenant’s life better - before the notice of rent increase. That makes the tenant more likely to stay because you’ve just improved their quality of life - and you’ve also shown them that you care - and they’re more likely to pay the rent increase. Not only have you then kept the tenant and now receive a greater rent amount, often times, you can get a tax deduction for the repair or improvement - and above that, even if they do decide to vacate, you just improved your unit that you own. So … that’s the best solution to the dilemma, Ben from Germany. Again the short answer is to make an improvement to the unit, optimally a month or two before the rent increase. Craig from San Diego, California writes, “Keith, you are the first person that ever opened me up to the world of cash flow. I’ve bought two single-family properties from one of your providers about 8 months ago and I’ve had a good experience so far, other than one tenant that paid the rent about 20 days late month.” OK, so far, so f-a-i-r-l-y good there, Craig from San Diego. Craig goes on to ask, “There are a lot of warning signs about a recession and I’m considering putting a freeze on new purchases until I at least have some certainly in this uncertain environment. What are your thoughts about a recession?” OK, that’s certainly a valid question, Craig. You bring up “uncertainty”. I’d say that markets are always, just always, uncertain … and prognosticators and forecasters have been calling for a downturn for 3 years, 4 years, including a prominent economist or two right here on this very show. And that’s alright. That’s alright if there’s someone that’s wrong. A prominent economist’s decision is just one point of many that you have to take into consideration … … whether it’s an inverted yield curve or slowing GDP growth or inflated stock market price-to-earnings ratios that might point to a recession. Well, especially as it relates to real estate - let’s just talk about how a recession might look as it relates to real estate and what the probabilities are of a recession taking place soon. First of all, a recession is broadly defined as having two or more quarters in a row of contracting Gross Domestic Product - said another way, a declining GDP for at least six months. That’s what a recession is. Let’s relate a recession to real estate - broadly. 10 years ago, we were mired in the worst recession in a few generations. Real estate was: #1 - Overbuilt & oversupplied. #2 - Real estate was being bought with irresponsible lending practices where borrowers didn’t have the capacity to pay their mortgages if anything went wrong. Everyone was qualifying for a loan. And #3 - Ten years ago in the Great Recession, we saw ridiculously unsustainable appreciation rates. 20%, 40%, 50%, 60% per year in some markets on this speculative appreciation since anyone could qualify for a loan. Today, I don’t think we’re in position for a real estate recession & if we do have one, it would be substantially milder than what we saw 10 years ago. Why is that? Because today, we’re in EXACTLY the opposite condition than we were 10 years ago. Today, we have an UNDERsupply of housing, lending practices ARE responsible, and appreciation rates are sustainable. I talked at the top of the show that real estate has appreciated nationally at about 3-and-a-half percent. So, we’re in the opposite place that we were 10 years ago for three main reasons: supply, lending responsibility, and sustainable appreciation rates. In fact, if you’re buying for cash flow in good markets - like you should be - the question I’d ask you - uh, Craig from San Diego - is - do you WANT there to be a mild recession? Yeah, if housing values began trending down for a little while, people are discouraged from buying and then there’s more rental demand. This is what I experienced when I owned property for cash flow, like I did 10 years ago - when rental demand increased - my cash flow increased greater than the rate of inflation. So, you might WANT there to be a mild recession when you’re a cash flow buyer. In fact, this - kind of - workforce housing that we talk about buying here - long-term rentals that are just below the median purchase price for an area (but not too far below) - is some of the most recession-resilient housing type that you can find. Now, other housing types - take the SHORT-term rental market - like AirBnB properties, HomeAway, VRBOs - they aren’t nearly as recession-resistant as these long-term rentals are. Now, that doesn’t mean that you can’t own a few STRs - but they probably should be the bread-and-butter mainstay of your portfolio like these long-term rentals are. AirBnB properties cater to two primary types of people - businesspeople and vacationers. Now, it seems that most AirBnB owners prefer businesspeople to vacationers … because businesspeople tend to be more quiet, they don’t have parties, and businesspeople are more likely to have REPEAT stays than vacationers. But in a recession, both business travel and vacation travel gets cut. You saw that happen in the Great Recession - and business travel is one of the first places that businesses cut when they had to get lean. So … this doesn’t always mean that short-term rentals are dreadful. But long-term rentals are what are recession-resistant. Again, in long-term rentals, you might actually WANT a recession depending on how you’re positioned. So, thanks for the question there, Craig. Next week on the show, we’re going to focus on four-plexes - four-unit buildings and what makes them so special. The week after that, speaking of a recession, the incomparable Economist Richard Duncan is going to join us and tell us about this QE4-type of activity that the Fed has initiated … … where the Fed is printing all kinds of money and pumping it into the system … and what that means for the economy. Richard can make complex concepts sound devastatingly simple sometimes. In fact, when he was here with us, about a year-and-a-half-ago, just listen into part of that, my question and his answer: Yeah, could anyone else possibly describe the relationship between inflation and interest rates that succinctly … that concisely? In fact, when he’s back with us soon, I think that Richard will tell you that nearly the entire globe is ALREADY in a substantial economic slowdown. Well, what’s one way that I’m acting - and this is something that I regularly do whether I think that a recession is on the way or not - is that I just bought two more properties this past week myself. Yes, they’re these cash-flowing, long-term rentals like we talk about here … eating my own cooking. When I was almost ready to buy, I qualified for two more single-family income property loans with Ridge Lending Group. And then to find the 2 new properties, I did just what you do. I went to GREturnkey.com, downloaded reports on a couple markets that I was interested in, connected with the provider, and decided to buy two properties in the same day. Really, walking the walk here. So, if you’re looking for cash-flowing income property in investor-advantaged markets - usually in the Midwest and South, you’ve got to act. That starts at GREturnkey.com Until next week, when I’ll be back to help you build your wealth, I’m Keith Weinhold. Don’t Quit Your Daydream!
In this episode of the Keiser Report, Max and Stacy discuss the recent report from the Dutch National Bank explaining why it holds 615 tons of gold which the bank considers the ‘trust anchor for the financial system.’ This statement and others in the report could be yet another sign of the end of fiat. In the second half, Max interviews Michael Pento of PentoPort.com about the repo markets, gold, QE4, and more.
Zero interest rates are pushing the world into the Greatest Depression. There’s no stopping it. QE4 by any name is underway. Increased social unrest is spreading around the globe. In just the past week over a dozen countries are erupting. It’s anti-establishment and anti-elite. The people are fed up with losing everything they have, while the rich get richer. It’s beginning to look like George Orwell was an optimist. Left unchecked by the people, this destabilization will lead to an enhanced police state and more authoritarianism.
Zero interest rates are pushing the world into the Greatest Depression. There’s no stopping it. QE4 by any name is underway. Increased social unrest is spreading around the globe. In just the past week over a dozen countries are erupting. It’s anti-establishment and anti-elite. The people are fed up with losing everything they have, while the rich get richer. It’s beginning to look like George Orwell was an optimist. Left unchecked by the people, this destabilization will lead to an enhanced police state and more authoritarianism.
Among the largest participants in the Repo market is the money market fund industry. They were badly burned in 2008-09. If you're wondering where they keep all those billions on deposit, this is the place. Now there seems to be a loss on confidence and the Fed is rushing to fill the gap. Could this be QE4 by any other name?
Among the largest participants in the Repo market is the money market fund industry. They were badly burned in 2008-09. If you're wondering where they keep all those billions on deposit, this is the place. Now there seems to be a loss on confidence and the Fed is rushing to fill the gap. Could this be QE4 by any other name?
What is an inverted yield curve?To understand what an inverted yield curve is, you must first understand one of the most basic financial asset classes out there: Bonds.A bond is like an IOU given to you by a bank. When you lend the bank money, it'll give you back that same amount at a later time along with a fixed amount of interest.For example, if you bought a two-year bond for $100 with a 2% annual return on it, that means you'll get $104.04 back after two years (this accounts for compounding).Yes, that's a low return rate. However, bonds have a number of benefits that justify the small rate of return:They're an extremely stable investment. This is especially true when it comes to government bonds. The only way you can lose your money with them is if the government defaulted on its loans — which the U.S. government has never done.They're guaranteed to have a return. This means that you'll know exactly how much you're getting on your ROI when you purchase a bond.Longer investments yield higher returns. The longer you're willing to wait on your bond typically means that you're going to have higher return rates. I say typically because there are exceptions to this (Hint: It has to do with what we're talking about right now).And when people refer to inverted yield curves, they're typically referring to the yields on U.S. Treasury bonds, or bonds guaranteed to investors by the U.S. government.The Fed Is Going to Buy Bonds Again. It's Not a Stimulus Effort.The Federal Reserve will resume the expansion of its balance sheet soon. Just don't call it quantitative easing.Following a sudden rise in overnight bank funding costs in September, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Tuesday that the central bank will begin increasing its securities holdings to “maintain an appropriate level of reserves.” This should be viewed as a technical adjustment and different from the large-scale asset purchases the central bank undertook to stimulate the economy following the financial crisis, he said in a speech to the National Association of Business Economists in Denver, according to the text.This move would be in keeping with the Fed's “ample reserve” operating policy established in the wake of the financial crisis, in which the central bank controlled the federal-funds rate—its primary policy target—by establishing the interest it pays on bank reserves. Before the financial crisis, the Fed would control the fed-funds rate through open-market operations—the purchases and sales of securities—to maintain a scarcity of reserves.Some market observers are calling the Federal Reserve's recent commitment to buy billions of dollars of U.S. Treasury bills QE4—the start of a fourth round of so-called quantitative easing meant to boost a flagging economy. The underlying problem was a systemic shortage of money. Fed officials wrongly believed the banking system was flush with more reserves than it needed. In reality, the system was operating on a knife edge where small changes in the quantity of reserves generated large changes in price. Inverted Yield Curve Suggesting Recession Around The Corner?If we look at the data past yield curve inversions in the US. The difference between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yield (10Y2Y) going back to 1976.Notice that before almost every recession, the yield curve inverted and then steepened.And how often did the yield curve invert and no recession followed within two years of the first inversion? Zero.
Is The Fed Losing Control Of The Market As the Federal Reserve continues to resort to emergency measures, to address a problem that it claims does not exist, more and more market participants are starting to realize there's an element to the Fed's story that just doesn't add up. For the last 10 years Federal Reserve officials have proclaimed victory over the last financial crisis, while extolling the virtues of its quantitative easing programs. Of course the programs, much like the recent Fed repurchase transactions, were sold as temporary, but have turned out to be anything but. Which those who have been critical of the Fed warned about when the policies were first initiated. Now the Fed has seen that if it tries to raise interest rates or undo the quantitative easing balances, the markets quickly runs into trouble. Which was evidenced most clearly in the last quarter of 2018, when the markets started tanking in response to even minimal Fed tightening. All of which David Brady, a former money manager and current writer for Sprott Money was kind enough to join me on the show and discuss. As well as what to expect when QE4 is officially launched, and how to be best prepared to respond. So to discover how to put all of the pieces together, click to watch the video now! - To follow David on twitter: @GlobalProTrader - To get a free sneak audio chapter preview of my upcoming book “The Big Silver Short” go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.clickfunnels.com/optin30878773 - We want to hear from you! We want your comments! Please tell us your favorite or most insightful time stamp. - Subscribe to Arcadia's Youtube channel now to stay ahead of Wall Street: http://bit.ly/2t1HKOj - To talk with Chris visit: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/getting-help/ - Visit the Arcadia Economics website: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/ - Follow Arcadia Economics on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ArcadiaEconomic - Like Arcadia Economics on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Arcadia-Economics-127021697962493/ - Subscribe to Arcadia's Youtube channel now to stay ahead of Wall Street! http://bit.ly/2t1HKOjSubscribe to Arcadia Economics on Soundwise
Gordon T. Long joined for a review of the recent disruptions in the Repo market and what are its possible causes. The Fed has come to its rescue so all is well. But are we actually witnessing stealth collapses of major banks? The Fed is being quite opaque on the subject. In other news, the Fed is buying $60 billion per month in securities, a/k/a QE4. There's much more here.
Gordon T. Long joined for a review of the recent disruptions in the Repo market and what are its possible causes. The Fed has come to its rescue so all is well. But are we actually witnessing stealth collapses of major banks? The Fed is being quite opaque on the subject. In other news, the Fed is buying $60 billion per month in securities, a/k/a QE4. There's much more here.
Topics discussed: Some day-to-day volatility in the market unsurprisingly surfaced in markets this week as we were down 100, down 300, then up 200 the first three days of the week, all around various chitter-chatter as to where China-trade talks were or were expected to be or were rumored to go or whatever ... This is a frustrating Dividend Cafe to send because I have no choice in terms of the timeline but to submit it before we have gotten real reports on how the trade talks have gone Thursday, and yet you will be receiving this Friday and of course by now there may very well be some updated report as to how the status of such talks. Of course, by early next week, I will provide an interim Dividend Cafe to give an update on the state of affairs ... The trade talks are the largest macro issue to watch right now, as once again the futures market has all but fully priced in another Fed quarter-point rate cut (at the October FOMC meeting at the end of the month). But markets are likely to respond to earnings results as the new season kicks off this coming week. Expectations are again reduced so how companies report revenue and profit results from the quarter that just was, and what sort of guidance they offer about expected results in the quarters ahead, are very likely to move the needle (in the overall market level, and of course in individual company results). This week's Dividend Cafe is really focused on the economy, the Fed, politics, and earnings. We look at a preview of earnings season, the idea of a QE4 coming, a deeper dive on economic indicators, and of course, Politics and Money. Grab your coffee, and jump on into the Dividend Cafe ... Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
E pronto. Hoje o presidente do Banco Central americano, Jerome Powell, concedeu que voltarão a expandir a balance sheet e que estão planejando como isso será feito. Some a isso o fato de que operações repo estão atualmente em 185 bilhões de dólares, o equivalente ao QE1, e na prática temos o anúncio do QE4. Exatamente como austríacos falaram que aconteceria. Quer acompanhar a gente no Sparkle? https://sparkle.hotmart.com/u/IdeiasRadicais Ou quer ver o nosso último artigo? https://ideiasradicais.com.br/por-que-ayn-rand-era-contra-o-altruismo/ E todo o resto? https://linktr.ee/linksradicais
Get The World Famous Trump Coin! Click Here! https://www.trumpcoin2020.com Use Promo Code "X22 Report" for $5 off per coin Check Out The X22 Report Spotlight YouTube Channel – https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC1rn... Join the X22 Report On Steemit: https://steemit.com/@x22report Get economic collapse news throughout the day visit http://x22report.com Report date: 10.08.2019 The EU thought they had BJ cornered it turns out that it is the other way around. The economic landscape is now changing, the trade deals are being made and congress needs to vote on the USMCA. Trump has made new trade deals to help the American farmers and to prepare the economy for the transition. Team Trump tweeted out and it included the word Gold Standard. Is this a message to the people. Right on schedule the Fed announces QE4. All source links to the report can be found on the x22report.com site. Most of artwork that are included with these videos have been created by X22 Report and they are used as a representation of the subject matter. The representative artwork included with these videos shall not be construed as the actual events that are taking place. Intro Video Music: YouTube Free Music: Cataclysmic Molten Core by Jingle Punks Intro Music: YouTube Free Music: Warrior Strife by Jingle Punks Fair Use Notice: This video contains some copyrighted material whose use has not been authorized by the copyright owners. We believe that this not-for-profit, educational, and/or criticism or commentary use on the Web constitutes a fair use of the copyrighted material (as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. If you wish to use this copyrighted material for purposes that go beyond fair use, you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Fair Use notwithstanding we will immediately comply with any copyright owner who wants their material removed or modified, wants us to link to their web site, or wants us to add their photo. The X22 Report is "one man's opinion". Anything that is said on the report is either opinion, criticism, information or commentary, If making any type of investment or legal decision it would be wise to contact or consult a professional before making that decision. Use the information found in these videos as a starting point for conducting your own research and conduct your own due diligence before making any significant investing decisions.
All-star Brent Johnson says that even if Juliette Declercq is proven right and the Fed launches QE4, the reversal in the Dollar’s rise would only be temporary. Stocks higher, gold pullback.Link: http://bit.ly/2mU4aPG
Why is the Fed injecting $100 billion into the banking system for overnight lending? James has the answer to that and more in this week’s show… by James Anderson of […] The post REPO Madness to QE4, QE5 | James Anderson appeared first on Silver Doctors.
We are living in truly amazing times. Mainstreet media might be telling you the U.S. economy is sound and the healthiest its ever been but that is all false. The Federal Reserve has once again begun to start up the printing presses to inflate the U.S. money supply in what seems to be the start of QE4.2020 will kick off a first in 5,000 years of recorded financial history…..negative interest rates. That's right, you get paid to take out a loan in this world. The system wasn't supposed to function this way and it won't be long before the U.S. joins the rest of the world with negative rates. In futures episodes, we'll cover more analysis on why the economy is entering recession/depression territory but here's what you need to know:A recession (we argue depression) could be just around the cornerThe bond markets are failing globallyYour dollars continue to be devalued through inflationYour 401k & pensions are at riskYou should be looking at ways to preserve your wealth through an economic downturnHow does Gold or Bitcoin help me preserve my wealth?Gold - has been considered a store of value by people for thousands of yearsBitcoin - just like gold, is increasingly being used to save the wealth of families in countries whose economies are collapsingGold & Bitcoin - additional gold or bitcoin cannot be created unlike your U.S. dollars so it will hold its value through inflation due to recessionsIf you're interested in learning about how to prepare for a pending economic collapse tune in to today's episode for a nonconformist's view! Get on the email list at thenonconformist.substack.com
The US has limited alternatives to deal with a possible recession. QE4 by any name will certainly be high on the Fed's list of warding it off. Lior says, "It's like a training that's going to crash at some point." You know it's going to happen and you can either jump now or later, but either way it's going to be painful and potentially dangerous.
The US has limited alternatives to deal with a possible recession. QE4 by any name will certainly be high on the Fed's list of warding it off. Lior says, "It's like a training that's going to crash at some point." You know it's going to happen and you can either jump now or later, but either way it's going to be painful and potentially dangerous.
QE4 and zero percent rates are the only thing that will keep this bubble intact, and President Trump knows it. EXCLUSIVE CONTENT Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/KennedyFinance BitBacker: https://bitbacker.io/user/philipkennedy/ KF STORE: https://teespring.com/stores/kennedy-... AFFILIATE PROGRAMS: Bitcoin T-shirt: https://teespring.com/wear-zero-given... Cash App: https://cash.me/app/GTGJTKF KeepKey: http://keepkey.go2cloud.org/aff_c?off... Ledger: https://www.ledger.com/?r=4fb4a118958c Coinigy: https://www.coinigy.com/?r=b965d7ee Audible: https://amzn.to/2xjODcU Liberty Classroom: http://www.libertyclassroom.com/dap/a... DONATIONS: Bitcoin: 12wwtTDiuCT2FbfJLK7rdWBZRa4ntTEach Litecoin: LQF3GGZ7Y4e6pE9mWJmooGjEizyhuoxb6K Dash: XwGD7aftdnPU88fNjDAWYQtpd2CwoZPdWT Bitcoin Cash: 1PgudkSsJcj2KMah5GdncBMZVz7xswfwYA PayPal Me: https://paypal.me/KennedyFinancial Cash Me: cash.me/$KennedyFinance WEB: https://www.philipkennedy.com YOUTUBE: http://youtube.com/c/PhilipKennedyFin... PODCAST: https://soundcloud.com/kennedy-financ... SOCIAL: Steemit: https://steemit.com/@philipkennedy Dtube: https://d.tube/#!/c/philipkennedy DLive: https://dlive.io/@philipkennedy Gab: https://gab.ai/KennedyFinancial Minds: https://www.minds.com/philipkennedy BitChute: https://www.bitchute.com/channel/phil... The Goodman Fiske Band (Intro Song): http://goodmanfiskeband.com DISCLAIMER: Kennedy Financial provides pro bono financial counseling and education. All posts are strictly opinion and not a recommendation to invest in any asset class.
Really a Head Fake As I suspected and as I stated in my last podcast at the end of the first quarter, I speculated that the rally that closed out the quarter was really a head fake. When the quarter started, I said you would see a resumption of the downtrend of the evolving bear market, which I believe we are already in. Bear Market Even though technically we're not there yet because we're not down 20%, but you can't get to 20% without first hitting 10%. Although not officially acknowledged, we are in a bear market. Just as often a recession is not acknowledged until after 2 quarters of negative GDP growth, but clearly you're in the recession for a long time before it's officially acknowledged. That doesn't mean you weren't in a recession before they admitted it, albeit not officially. Similarly, they haven't proclaimed this bear market. The Fed Could Change the Game There's one caveat: if the Federal Reserve comes in and changes the game by taking away the rate hikes or launching QE4, then we may never make it to a bear market. But if the Fed continues on its current path and maintains the current pretense, then we are in a bear market and it's only a question of time before it is officially acknowledged. No Real News to Blame for Sell Off As I expected, traders came back from the Passover/Easter break and started to sell. They came in almost out of the bell; no real news to blame the selloff on. Now they tried to blame it on Trump and the tariffs, and while I agree that tariffs are a problem, there was nothing new over the weekend. Yes, China came out and announced a couple of billion dollars worth of tariffs on some agricultural products, etc, but this was not unanticipated. Anybody who did not think this was coming - c'mon - China could have could have done a lot worse than this. Any News is an Excuse to Sell In fact, the market could have just as easily rallied on the fact that this is such a small response and they could have said, "Oh, this is nothing, it could have been a lot worse!" So the markets could have bought, if they were in a buying mood. But this is a bear market, and so all news is bad news. So, whatever the news is, that's an excuse to sell. Chinese Tariffs on Agricultural Products But what it does, is it lulls investors into a false sense of security: "Well, the market's not going down for any reason", "It's not because we're in a bear market, it's because of the reaction to the news that the Chinese are going to have tariffs on agricultural products.
TIMESTAMPS (0:00) Intro – Doug in Vancouver for 2017 SCOOP (2:25) Update on Luke Schwartz’ recent PokerNews interview (6:30) Heads-up match between Doug & Luke will “never happen” (9:10) Poker Content – Information vs. Drama (13:10) Doug’s ability in NLHE vs. PLO (16:20) “Poker Pro” and “Poker Entertainer” are two different skill sets (17:40) #InstagramPoker a “weird” place? (19:10) Some Instagram personalities are “faking it” (20:10) Chips + Hole Cards + Naked Women = Instagram Success (21:25) Recent Poker Night in America Choctaw drama (29:30) “Positive” things in poker – Doug’s SCOOP streaming plans (30:50) May 22nd “MTT Master Class” with Pratyush Buddiga (33:50) Joey learns that Doug isn’t transitioning from cash games to MTTs (35:00) Doug in the market for new Lamborghini? (36:40) “Busto Lambo” vs. “Baller Lambo” (37:50) Tai Lopez shout-out (38:10) Doug & Joey talk about Kevin Hart signing with PokerStars (41:15) Poker 2017 – the good stuff (43:50) Daniel Negreanu discussion (45:50) DNegs “extremely mad” about a dissent in the ranks? (46:40) Doug shows off shout-out game – Ryan Meese love (48:20) h3h3 Productions & Pewdiepie mentions (49:00) Doug & Joey beatboxing next YouTube sensation? (50:30) Doug’s YouTube channel will reach 100,000 subscribers soon (52:10) Achieving satisfaction in life (53:45) Reinventing the Dunder Mifflin paper company may not result in success (55:05) Doug & Joey give some love to Daniel Negreanu (56:30) Patented Doug Polk dance move – The “Hip Bump” (57:50) Doug Polk pickup lessons (58:40) Joey demonstrates how to do the Doug Polk Hip Bump (1:00:30) More Upswing Poker courses on the way – Dating courses on hold (for now) (1:01:10) Joey torn between PLO and picking up women (1:02:05) Questions from live chat (1:05:10) More to life than viewers and subscribers? (1:06:00) Joey offers NBA-guest prop bet for Poker Life Podcast (1:08:05) Doug & Joey $2,000 USD prop bet booked (1:09:50) Doug’s Twitch streaming schedule for SCOOP – DougPolk.TV (1:10:20) Invest in Doug on StakeKings (1:12:45) Doug shoots on YouTube Poker “travesty” – the GPL video (1:15:15) Things Doug will “never do” (1:16:30) Doug relives Jason Mercier drama (1:17:50) Doug talks about Ben86 – Joey wants the dispute to get fixed (1:18:45) Doug relives LATB, Ben Limon podcast drama (1:22:45) Doug talks about Joey’s ability to “walk the line” (1:24:40) How the BGG originated (1:25:20) Snapchat vs. Instagram (1:26:30) Joey’s “Instagram Stories” audience is 100:1 men-to-women (1:28:00) Doug’s main focus will remain on Upswing Poker and YouTube (1:29:00) Joey shows off old-school Supernova Elite card (1:29:30) Doug talks about shift in strategy following Black Friday (1:30:20) Doug’s focus from now until 2019 (1:32:05) Doug wants to give “mainstream YouTube” a shot (1:32:35) Doug also wants to do stand-up comedy eventually (1:33:05) Thomas “SrslySirius” Keeling shout-out (1:33:50) Doug’s favorite YouTube video is his clip about the GPL (1:35:20) How does Doug respond to negative comments? (1:37:10) Should Doug copy Jimmie Stayplerz’ hairstyle? Swoop it to the side! (1:37:20) More live chat questions (1:38:40) Doug wants to get into politics eventually (1:41:10) President Polker? (1:42:00) Doug battles #RoundLife, down 10 pounds so far (1:44:30) Doug’s WSOP 2017 plans (1:47:10) Joey’s YouTube plans (1:48:00) STFU Jim? (1:48:30) OMFG it’s Jason!!!!!!1111oneoneeleven (1:49:50) #F*ckJim (1:51:50) Joey cuts a promo on Jim (1:52:15) Things Ben86 would say (about Jim) (1:52:35) Joey knows math (thanks to Jim) (1:53:45) Jim is welcome over at DougPolkPoker (1:54:30) Joey is GTO with his trolling range (1:55:30) Joey extends “special offer” to those who purchase Upswing’s MTT Master Class (1:56:30) Joey’s promotional efforts for Upswing’s PLO course featuring Fernando Habegger (1:57:20) The drawbacks of uninspired affiliate marketing, Twitch streamers (1:58:40) Chicago weather to blame for Joey’s sniffles? (2:01:50) Joey trolls WSOP tournament package pimping – StakeDraft @ 1.4 markup (2:02:45) Upswing MTT Master Class will cost $699 USD – available May 22nd (2:04:00) Joey advises Doug on sales pitch to backers (2:05:00) Joey’s QE4 live cardroom stable-backing plan (2:05:45) Conversation about Joey’s GTO Club (2:08:30) Doug talks about yesteryear’s $1.1 million session loss to Viktor “Isildur1” Blom (2:10:20) Doug’s thoughts on Phil Galfond’s RunItOnce Poker (2:12:35) Doug’s PokerStars Snapchat post – spin a wheel for money (2:14:50) Are PokerStars Spin & Gos crack cocaine? (2:16:50) Upswing Party at WSOP 2017 could draw 1,000 people – #FreeDrinks (2:20:15) Upcoming Mori Eskandani, Dan Colman & Aria SHRB Poker Life Podcast episodes (2:21:30) Watch DougPolk.TV starting this Sunday for 2017 SCOOP coverage
Prior to Donald Trump being elected, it was said the markets would crash! The stock market is at record highs and the dollar is at a 14 year high! So does this mean our economy has recovered? No, what we are seeing now is short-lived and once Trump is sworn in as the 45th president of the United States, this optimism will have disappeared. The only way out of our excessive debt problem is inflation. They will paper over these debts. QE4 is coming my friends so prepare yourself!
Janet Yellen’s recent comments at Jackson Hole on August 26th are really much of the same stuff. There is a few things in Yellen’s speech that are quite revealing. Yellen suggested that QE4 (more money printing) is on the table and even negative interest rates! Yes, Janet Yellen makes a comment saying rates you should have went negative in response to the housing crisis in 2008! Negative interest rates seem to be the last resort effort by central banks to keep things under control. This seems to be the end of the road and it’s not going to end well. Prepare yourself now while you still can!
I'm on vacation this week but I did take a little time out to little time out to listen to Janet Yellen's semi-annual "Humphrey-Hawkins" testimony - she testified first before the Senate, that was yesterday and today she was before the house It used to be a lot more interesting with Ron Paul was on the house banking committee and you could see Ron Paul asking questions to Ben Bernanke I really would like to hear Rand Paul questioning Janet Yellen but unfortunately, we don't have that opportunity Also, the big news, we are on the eve of the Brexit vote in the U.K.; it's going to be on Thursday Polls of investor sentiment show the remain camp is firmly in the lead Betting certainly shows that more money is on the remain, but more people are betting on leave Probably, though the remain camp will carry the day; the forces of big government are very hard to overcome Nowhere is big government better exemplified than in the case of the Federal Reserve, which is the combination of big government and central banking Janet Yellen's testimony, I thought, was relatively boring, but I'm going to go over some of the more important tidbits Yellen keeps referring to the recovery that appears to be on track and the rate hike is just around the corner All this is nonsense - if the Fed were going to raise rates, they would have already done so One senator or congressman asked Yellen about the box the Fed might be in because the rates are still so low, what tools does Yellen have to fight off the next recession Yellen confidently replied that we have all the tools we've always had, which is true They still have those tools; the problem is that these tools have never worked They can't cut rates, much, they can print all the money they want, they can do QE4, it can be bigger than QE3, and it probably will be Even though Janet Yellen, in response to a direct question about negative interest rates, said that she didn't think the Fed would go there, well we'll see When push comes to shove they may be more willing to go there than they are right now because they still want to pretend that the recovery is on track, so why even bring up negative rates when you're talking about raising rates So I think once the conversation turns then negative rates may be a more serious consideration One of the congressmen asked about Puerto Rico and Janet Yellen said, "No, there's nothing we can do, Puerto Rico is on it's own." I wish the Fed would have had the same attitude about the mortgage market The Federal Reserve has no problem buying up toxic mortgages but they wouldn't touch Puerto Rican sovereign debt with ta 10-foot pole Which leads you to believe how risky that debt much be I wish the Fed would do the same thing to the U.S. government - force the U.S. government to make those tough choices In fact, there was a House member, today, who talked to Janet Yellen about the independent central banks and Janet Yellen bluffed, that if interest rates, and that was a problem for Congress, that Congress would have to deal with the problem I don't believe her for a second I believe on of the reasons, specifically that Janet Yellen doesn't want to raise rates is that she knows that will complicate the budget situation in Washington because the Federal Government can't afford to pay higher interest rates If the Federal Reserve already bailed out the government by doing QE and buying all these bonds, why are they going to change course? I don't believe for a second Janet Yellen's tough talk about how independent the Federal Reserve is and how if the situation warranted it, they would raise interest rates and Congress would have to deal with the consequences There's no way the Fed is going to do that; she may have fooled some of the people on that sub-committee, but she didn't fool me Of course, she always gets these questions about jobs, and how are you going to create jobs,
I recorded my last podcast on the afternoon of April 19, and I wanted to announce that later that evening, my first daughter was born - we named her Lilyan Ruth after both of our maternal grandmothers - so we now have Lilyan Ruth Schiff, she was 7 lbs 2 oz. of pure cuteness! If you just looked at the close of the gold and silver market, you wouldn't know that much went on, gold closed up under $5 - silver was up about .04, but you wouldn't know that earlier in the morning gold was up better than $25, we did trade back above $1270 Silver made a new high for the year - silver was up about 75¢ early in the morning, in fact I think it made its peak during the Draghi press conference We were above $1760 and then, just around 9am or so, there was a huge seller in the gold and the silver market and the whole complex went negative and we managed to close slightly positive on the day, but we had a huge sell-off intra-day following a big rally That doesn't mean the top is in - I think it's interesting; we just got a huge correction out of the way and the price went up - we flushed out a big seller and now that seller is out of the market and this market is still going a lot higher I put an article on my Facebook page about how gold stocks are way up this year, and they are way up this year, but the article basically said, "Don't buy", because gold is going to sell off. I'm seeing a log of mainstream articles now about why you should not jump on this bandwagon, how dangerous the gold market is And all this is just music to my ears. If you are bullish on gold, this is exactly what you want. You want everybody to be skeptical. You want this wall of worry, that gold and silver are going to climb, and we're going to climb with it while everybody else is worried about the crash, because they still don't get it. They're still talking about how the Fed is going to raise rates, and how that's bad for gold It's not bad for gold - it all depends on how the Fed raises rates If the Fed raises rates Paul Volker style, really jacks them up there, yeah, that will be bad for gold But they're not going to do that. If they raise rates, slowly, which is the only way they can do that if they even raise them, they will be slower than Greenspan was When Greenspan raised rates, that was great for gold, because he was very slow Well, Yellen is going to be even slower So if gold did well under Greenspan, it will do even better under Yellen hikes, if we even get hikes If we even get hikes. We could get cuts, QE4, negative rates If the Fed raises rates a little bit, that's bullish for gold; if they don't raise rates at all, even more bullish for gold, or they cut rates, and gold goes ballistic Either way, gold stocks are going up Meanwhile Wall Street is looking at amazement at the rally and it wouldn't dawn on them to participate The mainstream investment world is not on board. The train has left - there's nobody on it Eventually they're going to buy, just like they piled in to the gold trade when it was 17-18-1900, that's when the big firms started finally noticing it Eventually they are going to realize... I think it is going to take Yellen admitting the economy is weak, of the Fed actually cutting rates, but by then the prices are going to be much higher than they are now and we keep getting bad economic news But I want to talk first about the Draghi press conference Mario Draghi of the ECB, leaving interest rates unchanged, and continuing their QE program The euro initially rallied, even during the Q&A, but then at the end, the euro turned around with the gold market, and the euro ended up unchanged Draghi made some interesting comments. One of them had to do with inflation Draghi admitted that lower gas prices were helping European consumers, giving them more purchasing power But in the same Q&A session, he said that inflation wasn't high enough, but he was confident that they would get it back ...
As I said in my last podcast, when the the Federal Reserve issued its press release yesterday at 2:00pm, Janet Yellen did not give the markets they were hoping for; in a way, it was almost as if she threw them an anchor instead, because the Dow Jones ended up falling about 200 points as a result of the disappointing statement The statement was dovish, but it wasn't dovish enough, and even though the Dow recovered about half those gains, I think the market is still on the defensive, given the fact that Janet Yellen still did not veer from the projected rate hike path, even though the Fed went out of its way to say that the tightening would be very gradual and that rates would still be low for a long time And the Fed will continue reinvesting all all the maturing bonds, so the balance sheet will not shrink at all They will continue to reinvest interest and principal payments, meaning the balance sheet will continue to grow, so it's still QE, just a slimmed down version But I do expect full-blown QE4 to come before the November election I do believe that this is the first step in a reversal of policy because Janet Yellen did acknowledge that economic growth slowed last year In fact, it slowed more at the end of the year, as we will see when we get the first look at the Q4 GDP tomorrow; I think the economic slow-down is continuing in 2016 The Fed also said that they were monitoring the financial and global markets and will take in consideration the effects that these might have on economic growth, inflation and employment Obviously, the effects on economic growth are going to be negative - it's the reverse wealth effect The Fed puts a lot of stock in the wealth effect, but it's a two-edge sword The Fed statement also mentioned that they are still targeting 2% inflation but that they're not quite there, and expressed concern that they might not meet that goal To me, acknowledging the economy is slowing, going out of their way to mention that they are monitoring the global economy is an easing from their rhetoric The Fed is going to have to do a lot more than that subtle suggestion I think it is enough to turn the dollar; it has been weakening across the board today Oil prices have moved up a bit Gold stocks have actually done a little bit better than gold - gold and silver were both hit today: gold was down about $10/11, silver was down about .30 There was a huge sell order that came in early in the morning and just knocked the markets down in about a minute, which has been typical It looked like the metal was poised to continue to move higher We'll see what happens tomorrow when we get the GDP But one of the reasons it looked like today should have been a big day for gold was the economic news that came out early this morning on December Durable Goods They were looking for a +.2 increase, following a 0% gain in November Instead, first they revised the November's number to -.5 and then, instead of improving, we dropped 5.1 - Huge decline! You have to go back to the '08 financial crisis to find a Durable Goods that bad It gets worse when you look at the details Strip out transportation: they were looking for zero, instead we got -1.2 On top of that, they took last month's -.1 and made it -.5 The worst one is Core Capital Goods: last month was down .4 and we got -4.3 Year-over-year Capital Goods is down 7.5% So, given this number and the Fed's statement yesterday, I expected gold to build on its momentum, but for that big sell order that happened early in the morning The gold stocks held up today, despite the big drop in gold I expect a rally tomorrow if we get a weak GDP number, and now a lot of people are looking for a weak number; the consensus is now down to about 1% Whatever number we get, it will be revised even lower and after the final revision I would expect Q4 to be a negative number and the the beginning of a recession
The bear market in global stocks continues, and I believe we're in a bear market in the U.S. Technically the major averages are not quite down 20%, although some of the averages are Transports were down 30% from their highs The Russell 2000 was down more than 25% Many individual sectors are way down into bear market territory, as are some individual stocks IBM hit a new 6-year low; and, of course, IBM is the poster boy for share buy-backs Imagine how much shareholder money has been flushed down the toilet buying back stock at over $200/sh and now we're looking at 12o and falling But remember: all bear markets begin as corrections The bear market of 2001, when the S&P was cut in half, and the NASDAQ fell by 80%, started as a correction The same thing in 2008 - they were calling that a correction, too, until they realized that it was a bear market In fact, the main thing I am hearing today is the comeback - the Dow had a huge comeback because it was down more than 560 points at the low and it closed down at just 249 The NASDAQ was down more than 160 and it closed down only 5 Had we closed at the lows of the day maybe we would be closer to a short-term bottom This is another short-covering inter-day rally creating a slippery slope of hope for the market to continue to slide down Today, we have hit the most 52-week lows in any month since September of 2008 Earlier in the day, we were showing the biggest monthly point drop in the history of the stock market It's not just the worst January, it's the worst month of any year, ever The market has got to be telling us that not only are we in a bear market, but we are in a recession The market is forward-looking: it is telling us that we are in a recession The bond market is priced as if we are in a recession Maybe that is because we are in a recession All the economic data indicates a severe recession The market is behaving as though something bad is happening - we haven't seen action like this since 2008, yet people are dismissing all of this evidence If it walks like a recession, quacks like a recession, smells like a recession, it is a recession There are now more people acknowledging that the Fed should not continue raising rates in the near future - an article in the Guardian says:"Janet Yellen and Fed left with face full of egg after interest rate rise blunder" accuses the Fed of raising rates too early The problem isn't that they raised rates early, it is that they raised them too late Actually the real problem is that they never should have lowered rates to zero in the first place I said this from the beginning: They sealed their fate as soon as they dropped rates to zero - no matter when they raised rates it would be a disaster, and the longer they waited it would be a disaster What is ridiculous is that the Fed wants us to believe that they can raise rates, after leaving them at zero for so long, and that we could sometime just be fine The narrative that Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen and the Obama administration have been selling is that they saved the economy The economy is in much worse shape now than it was 7 years ago Instead the Fed's poisonous cure made us sicker than ever - That is what I wrote in "Crash Proof" When I forecasted the bursting of the real estate bubble and the Great Recession and financial crisis, I said the economy could withstand that What would kill it was the Fed's cure, they came up with the exact remedy I was afraid they would and it is having this exact effect The Fed is going to take interest rates to negative and they will launch QE4, which will be bigger than 1,2 & 3, but it will be too late to stop the recession At this point the dose of monetary stimulus will be lethal for the dollar The dollar is still rising based on the idea that the Fed is going to continue to tighten monetary policy This is causing turmoil in global markets
The Dow Jones ended another down week on a down note, dropping 390 points The NASDAQ was down 126 points This is the worst January in the history of the stock market the Dow is off about 13% from its highs, the NASDAQ about 15%, firmly in correction territory We are probably in a bear market right now, because ultimately these indexes will be down 20% Some indexes are already firmly in the bear camp; the transportation average is down about 27.5%; the Russel 2000 is down aboutr 23% Many sectors are in a bear market - the auto market, retailers, financials Home builders not quite in bear market territory yet but they are at 4-year lows Beneath the sectors there are many individual stocks that are down 30 - 80% - GoPro now down 82% from last year as a highly touted IPO Yesterday we had about a 200 point rally because the Fed's Dudley, who saved the market in October of 2014 by hinting of QE4 causing the market to take off This time, Bullard came out and did say something dovish, but not dovish enough, and did not want to say there was something wrong with the economy, so he simply stated that oil prices were too low and inflation might not rise quickly enough, so the Fed should hike more slowly Today, another Fed governor came out, William Dudley and contradicted Bullard, strongly optimistic, saying the market is going to grow above trend in 2016 and he said that some of the negative economic data that has come out recently (which may qualify as the understatement of the decade) should be ignored, in the context of a strong labor market In other words, no matter what other negative data is out there, in the markets or in the economy, as long as we're still creating 200,000-300,000 mostly low-paying, part time jobs monthly, everything is fine If everything is fine, and there are so many people with jobs, why are retail sales plunging? Why are corporate earnings plunging? Assuming all these jobs really exist, they won't for long because if sales and earnings are collapsing, what are companies going to do with their work force? Walmart announced today they are closing about 150 stores in the U.S., laying off about 10,000 people I have saying for a while I expected retailers to announce significant layoffs, but I think it is going to be across the board Everything that was built on the Fed's bubble is imploding; all the phony wealth that was the result of QE is disappearing rapidly It's amazing that the Federal Reserve believes in the wealth effect on the way up, but somehow it is oblivious to it on the way down I think it is going to work even stronger in reverse; the amount of spending from cut backs will produce a reverse effect even larger than the one they tried to create with QE and zero percent interest rates How could Bullard, in the face of all this negative economic data say that since the Fed raised rates, his outlook on the economy has not diminished at all? It's so ridiculous that he must not believe it - he is trying to pretend that everything is good The whole rate hike was about instilling confidence Based on the data, they should not have hiked rates Now, as the markets are imploding and the data is getting worse, Dudley is out there saying everything is great How much longer can he get away with saying that? Pretty soon, he is not going to have that much credibility That's what is going on with the Fed, in fact JP Morgan today pushed back their estimate for the first rate hike in 2016 from March to June That's how is started last year; everybody was looking for a rate hike, in March, then June then September, then they finally got it in December and now people are already dialing back estimates of the next rate hike The next one ain't happening because we are already in a recession I am talking about a statistical recession that the government will have to acknowledge I think we have been in a recession throughout the entire recovery
Hi everybody, this is Peter Schiff and I am recording this on Friday, January 8, and Wall Street just finished the worst opening week to a new year in the history of the stock market The Dow Jones was down another 1% on Friday to finish the week better than 1,000 points - it was a 6% decline on the week Now there have been weeks that have been down more than 6% in the history of the stock market, in fact we had one about 4 years ago, but we've never had a week this bad in the first week of January Now, the financial media is coming up with all sorts of excuses to blame this big decline on On Monday, they were blaming the sell-off on the rumors that North Korea tested a hydrogen bomb But for most of the week, they were blaming the sell-off of the U.S. stock market on the sell-off in China, despite the fact that China rallied on Friday and we sold off The Chinese market was down about 10% on the week, despite the Friday rally The U.S. stock market is not falling because of the Chinese stock market. The Chinese stock market and the U.S. stock market are falling for the same reason It's not that one is causing the other, they're both going down and the reason they're falling is because the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in December and they are threatening to raise them at least 4 more times, according to the most recent minutes. The belief that the Fed is going to keep raising rates is putting pressure on the Chinese currency, the Yuan, to decline along with a lot of other currencies that have already fallen substantially against the dollar, on the anticipation of higher interest rates It's the weakness in the Chinese currency that is pulling down the Chinese market, but it's all because of the Fed - but that's the same reason we're going down If you remember, all year I was saying that I didn't think the Fed was going to raise rates at all in 2015, and the reasons were: I thought thee economy would not be able to handle it - the Fed always claimed that they were data dependent and I thought they were hiding behind that, but I though they could use the weak data, which had been coming all year, as cover for not raising rates - in fact, that was their cover until they backed themselves into a corner because they had promised to raise rates by the end of the year and a refusal to raise rates would be an admission that the economy was weaker than forecasted I also said I didn't think the market could handle a rate hike. It had stopped rising based on the absence of QE, but if the Fed actually increased rates, the air would come out of the bubble a lot faster So with the economy going down and the stock market going down, I thought the next thing they would do is reduce rates back to zero and launch QE4 and would look like complete fools So by not raising rates, they would look like a lesser fool by acknowledging that the economy needed additional stimulus We may already be in a recession The Atlanta Fed has already downgraded their forecast for 2015 Q4 to just .8% I think by the time we get the first estimate on the 29th the month, we could actually have a negative number for the fourth quarter If you look at all the data that's coming in, and I'll get to that in a minute, we can easily have a negative first quarter of 2016, and we're in recession If the economy is in recession, and we are in or close to a bear market in stocks, and without the Fed, there's nothing to stop this market from falling, the Fed will have to come to the rescue of both the economy and the market with QE But if you remember, a lot of analysts were very sanguine about the market's ability to handle a rate hike, but here we are, the Fed raised rates just a few weeks ago, and the Dow has dropped better than 1,100 points since the Fed raised rates. The one thing that hasn't declined since the Fed raised rates is gold Gold is up better than $40/oz. since we got that hike, and,
Well the Dow Jones got clobbered again today, down 252 points at the close The NASDAQ down about 55 The transports continue to get clobbered down another 146 points, decisively in bear market territory CNBC blamed the entire decline on jitters over North Korea's hydrogen bomb test I admit that this prospect is not good, but I don't believe that announcement was the reason for the decline The real problem is the Fed removing the monetary herion from the addicts on Wall Street and this is the withdrawal Former President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, spoke on CNBC yesterday and he admitted that the Fed "engineered a stock market rally" They wanted all this phony wealth to cause us to make irrational decisions That's what happened during the dot com bubble and to a greater extent during the housing bubble Here you have it from the words of a former Fed president, a voting member who voted for QE 1 & 2 who is saying that the Fed did this to create a "wealth effect" He even said, don't be surprised if the market goes down 20% - it's still overvalued - he admits the Fed was propping it up Obviously if the Fed removes the props the market will go down After Simon Hobbs asked Fisher if he is going to apologize, he said," Don't blame me, I voted against QE3!" He is throwing his colleagues, including Janet Yellen, under the bus Now that he is no longer at the Fed, he refers to it as a "giant weapon that is out of ammunition" The Fed still has ammo: cut rates (in this case, even to negative) and QE4, their big bazooka There's plenty of ammo left and it will be fired a lot sooner than people think Korea is an excuse, but Richard Fisher is letting the cat out of the bag, but no one in the media is picking up on this Also in the markets today, while stocks were going down, gold was going up - gold hit a 2-month high today As fast as it is going up in dollars, it is going up even faster in other currencies, like the Canadian dollar, which hit a 9-year low, the Australian dollar The yen was up - the dollar/yen is breaking down - to me that is a very scary proposition for the markets to see this strength in the Japanese yen Oil prices continued to drop, down another $2 today - we're trading below $34 Gold stocks were up - you'd think they would be up a lot more because mining costs are plunging and revenue is going up, but Wall Street is oblivious to the bargains that exist in the mining stocks We got a lot of economic news today and most of it was, as is typically the case, bad Yesterday vehicle sales were at a 6-month low Last year was a record for auto sales, but December was a 6-month low despite all the Christmas giveaways Meanwhile the inventory to sales ratio continues to rise - a new high since the 2008-2009 great recession Also GM got clobbered today, down about 4% - already down 9% for the year and down more than 20% from its 52-wk high - that is a bear market This is telling me that the auto bubble has popped There are going to be a lot of layoffs in the auto sector - good, high-paying jobs I have said that starting in January 2016 we would start to see layoffs because the numbers have been horrible Sure enough, Macy's today announced a restructuring, laying off thousands of workers because of disappointing sales throughout the year We will see a huge blow-up in the securitized market for auto loans They layoffs are coming - the low unemployment number is the rear view mirror Looking at the actual economy in the windshield is a disaster for jobs This is deja vu - in 2008 the subprime market had already exploded - the housing market problems should have been obvious Yet everybody said, "don't worry, it's contained." and I said why can't anybody see that everything I have been warning about for years is happening People were still denying what I was saying even as the financial crisis had already begun
Mario Draghi of the ECB sent shockwaves through the foreign exchange and currency markets today He didn't deliver the stimulus traders expected The big question is, will Janet Yellen surprise the market by failing to raise rates? The ECB did slightly lower interest rates, and extended QE if it will be needed Draghi's goal is inflation He equates 2% inflation to "price stability", when prices in Europe are stable now The big divergence that everybody is trading on a tightening in the U.S. at the same time Europe continues to ease The reality is more likely to be the reverse If anything, the European recovery is just getting started, and the U.S. recession is just getting started As a result of Draghi's decision to hold off on stimulus, the euro was up more than 3% on the day The dollar was weak across the board The stock market, including the DAX, fell accordingly Both U.S. stocks and bonds experienced a selloff Cheap money has been fueling rallies all over the world and when the ECB did not deliver it triggered a selloff in the U.S. assets The Dow rallied over 2000 points off its September low based on rate hike expectations that did not materialize We also got a key reversal in gold Overnight it made a new low, but closed substantially above that level The euro is still weak, it is just not as weak as the market expected The best environment for gold when the weakest currency is the dollar I wanted to address Janet Yellen's testimony today responding to questions Yesterday, Yellen referred to Q4 GDP forecast consensus as 2-1/2% She did not even realize that on that same day the Atlanta Fed reduced their forecast down to 1.4% I think the real shocker will be that the Europea Q4 GDP will realize greater growth than the U.S. Yellen was asked about Citibank's recent projection that the U.S. will experience a recession in 2016 Obviously, she can't agree with the projection, as this runs contrary to the Fed's rhetoric Asked as a followup, what tools the Fed would use in the event we did experience a recession in 2016, Yellen responded that the Fed would all the tools it has always had She said, if we did raise rates, then we would lower them Plus, she said it could use the asset purchase program (QE) that "has worked so well in the past If QE worked so well in the past, we would not experience a recession in 2016 You can't call QE a success until rates are normalized and the balance sheet shrinks back down to pre-crash levels If the Fed finds that it has to launch QE4 in 2016 because it failed to reach "escape velocity" How many QE's does the Fed have to initiate before it admits that it doesn't work, and is actually impossible to end without a great deal of pain? This loss of credibility in the Fed will precipitate a dollar crisis Anther thing that was ignored by Janet Yellen and the press was the six-year low in the ISM number The market is focusing on the service sector, yet the most important jobs are the goods producing jobs Lat month, we got a higher than expected jump in the non-manufacturing number:59.1 This month we wend all the way down to 55.9, which is dangerously close to contraction If we get the service and the manufacturing sectors both in contraction, that will be a total recession, supporting Citibank's 65% probability forecast may look optimistic Since 2016 is an election year, a recession will not bode well for the Democrats' economic success narrative
I am recording this podcast from New Orleans, where I am attending the Investment Conference Today, I am going to talk predominantly is the FOMC statement that came out yesterday following the conclusion of their 2-day October meeting It was largely expected that the Fed would not raise interest rates in October and that's exactly what happened I predicted this a long time ago What is amazing is that, as a result of this announcement, more people expect the Fed to raise rates in December Going into this announcement, the dollar was on the defensive, silver was up about .50, gold was up $15.00 It sure looked like people were expecting a more dovish tone from the Fed After all, a lot of bad economic news has come out since the September meeting When the Fed statement was released, there was no such change in language This now leads people to believe that the statement was hawkish They still don't understand the game: Nothing has changed. the Fed has to pretend that a rate hike is right around the corner in order to pretend that the recovery is real They can't admit that the economy is weak because they want to take credit for saving the economy They have to keep pretending, and they have to keep making up excuses Steve Leesman was asking why we need emergency rates when the emergency is over The emergency is not over, as far as the Fed is concerned because there is no real recovery If we had a legitimate recovery, of course the Fed could raise rates Thus the game: they continue to talk as if they might raise rates, and the markets buy it As soon as their statement came out, gold tanked, it ended up down about $10, silver gave up most of its gains, and the dollar was broadly higher If you actually read the statement, there is nothing hawkish about it It is basically the same as the September The only thing that stands out is an absence of concern The FOMC is not worried about all the bad news "In determining whether it will be appropriate to raise the target range at its next meeting, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term. " None of that is going to happen. The labor market is deteriorated - the labor force participation rate is still shrinking These are metrics Janet Yellen needs to see improve The Fed knows that these minutes will be misinterpreted They want to preserve the illusion that a rate hike is possible so they can preserve the illusion that this is a legitimate recovery and not a gigantic bubble But, what's going to happen when the Fed doesn't raise rates and ends up launching QE4 the Fed is going to have zero credibility The U.S. economy is in worse shape now than it was leading into the 2008 financial crisis Now everybody is talking about how important the jobs number will be - the Fed has not raised rates in 7 years. How can one jobs report make the difference? Meanwhile we've had months of stronger jobs numbers and the Fed did not raise rates I think the truth is the Fed has decided not to raise rates But they still need to maintain the perception that they might raise rates and that's the only explanation for the Fed's rhetoric Now let's get into this week's data, including today's release of Q3 GDP numbers They were looking for 1.7%, which is a sharp slowdown from the Q2 3.9% GDP number This one came out at 1.5%, slightly below estimates
We finally got some economic news today, all of it bad All of it "unexpected"... Hope springs eternal on Wall Street That's why the Federal Reserve can maintain its forecast of an interest rate hike before the end of the year Although now a second Fed official has come out saying he doesn't think a rate hike will be appropriate this year All this was forecasted by me; there was a method to their madness to maintain the theater that a rate hike is even possible When is the Fed going to admit that their earlier forecast of a big recovery and liftoff is wrong? CNBC finally admitted they do not want me on because I correctly predicted that the Fed would not raise rates The same is true for Bloomberg However, the last time I was on Fox Business, that video on my YouTube Channel got over 80,000 views That is probably more people who viewed the live show! By the way, don't forget to like me on Facebook follow me on Twitter and and subscribe to my YouTube Channel It's not going to be too much longer before more and more people will agree the Fed is not going to raise rates If I am right and the Fed launches QE4, it will be hard for the conventional media to ignore me - I am not saying it will be impossible, though These podcasts are developing a greater and greater audience, and you can help spread the word by sharing them, to get the word out Let's get to the economic data, starting with the Weekly Mortgage Applications This number was significant in the precipitous 27.6% drop in the composite index with purchased mortgages dropping 34% Part of this was due to last week's big jump as mortgage applicants tried to get ahead of new government rules But the drop is much bigger than the pop - this is a bad sign The consensus forecast for the Producer Price Index was for month over month prices to drop .2% instead they dropped .5% Year over year, down 1.1%; last month it was down .8% This is bad news to the Fed, which is looking for higher inflation The real negative news was the September Retail Sales Number It was expected to be weak, up only .1 and that's what we got, but last month's .2 number was revised down to flat Now we're up .1 from zero, meaning August and September Retail Sales missed expectations This will pull numbers away from Q3 GDP I think we will get Q3 GDP below 1% It might be below zero, which will be the first half of a recession We also got Business inventories, which were unchanged, but the inventory ot sales ration popped up to 1.37 - that ties the high for the move This glut of product is bad news for the economy The last 2 times we had inventory to sales ration this high, we were already in recession - 2001 and 2008 The worst news was Walmart's bombshell announcement that profits are suffering due to labor costs Their sales are suffering, too 75% of the losses are due to higher wages and the balance came from lower sales Walmart is the nation's biggest retailer and should benefit most from a stronger dollar and cheap gas Walmart's stock was down 10% on the day, one of the worst days in the history of Walmart YTD, it is down 33% from its highs - a super bear market for Walmart The Left proclaims that Walmart is getting rich on the backs of the workers - a collapse in Walmart stock price is not good for workers because profits are what creates the jobs This is a sign - Walmart is where America shops - if Walmart is having a problem, other retailers are having problems I predicted that we would get a pop in the market out of the jobs number but I did not think it would make a new high - that's what happened In order for the market to reach a new high, it needs QE4 As a result of this bad news, we got a decline in the market The Dow was down 160 points, but gold had a great day Gold was up about $20 Silver was up above $16 The Gold Stocks Index (GDX) was up 7% on the day Oil stocks were higher
Hey folks, Roger here… Do you know what the 6 biggest expenses are that you’ll face during retirement? In this episode of the Retirement Answer Man, I want to walk through those expenses for a couple of reasons: 1) You need to have a clear picture of where you’re headed so that you can be prepared when you get there. 2) Because in keeping with the theme of my show this month, WHEN you can retire could depend on whether you actually make those preparations or not and on the decisions you make about the expenses you’re going to have to support during retirement. I’ve put together a great show for you, so I hope you’ll hit the play button, listen in, and give me your feedback to this episode. In our “Hot Topic” segment: Is a Qualitative Easing 4 coming? In case you’re not familiar with the term “Qualitative Easing” let me put it in a nutshell for you. Simply put, QE is when the government, for various reasons, decides to put more money into the economy. How do they do that? Basically, by printing more money and making it available. Their hope is that the new money they pour into the economy goes into the investing and business development sectors, thereby boosting the economy. There’s been a lot of talk lately about whether or not another QE is coming and in today’s hot topic segment I’m going to tell you what I think about the possibilities and give you a small bit of practical mindset advice about how you should think about it. You don’t have to be at the mercy of your retirement expenses. While it’s true that you won’t likely have the same amount of income during retirement as you have pre-retirement, you don’t have to feel like your lifestyle and ability to live is being ripped out from under you. I’d suggest that one of the main ways you can take control of those things is by examining and planning the expenses you’re going to face during retirement. You’ll have some big ones to contend with: Housing, Health care, Automobile expenses, and three others, but the choices you make about those could determine what your lifestyle is like during retirement AND whether you might be able to retire a bit earlier. In this episode I spend a good deal of time walking through each of those expenses so that you can not only go in with your eyes open, but also make good decisions ahead of time to enable you to make the most of your retirement dollars. Give it a listen. Do you know what the #1 biggest retirement expense is? You probably guessed it, it’s your housing. It makes sense that the biggest expense you have before retirement is going to be the same after retirement. But when you think about the cost of your housing during retirement it’s always helpful to keep in mind all the things related to housing that could impact the costs you pay. For example, I often see clients make the choice to downsize their home or even to move to another state where property taxes aren’t as high. Those are not necessarily easy decisions to make but can dramatically impact the amount of money you’re paying out each month so that you can keep a bit more in your pocket or to support the lifestyle you want to have in your later years. I’ve got lots of tips for you about how to plan for and mitigate your retirement expenses in this episode. When can you realistically retire? I’ve got a free webinar coming up to help you figure it out. To culminate my October theme of “When can you retire?” I’m going to be hosting 2 identical webinars to help you answer that question. I’m going to walk through a 4 step method you can use to answer the questions, “When can I retire and what will my retirement look like?” I I’m excited to bring you this informative and practically helpful webinar to help you discover the most things that will determine the answers to those questions. The webinars are coming up on Oct. 28th and Oct. 29th, 2015, and I’d love to meet you on that platform. To register or find out more about my free upcoming webinar go to www.RogerWhitney.com/4steps. Choose the date that’s best for you… and even if you can’t attend go ahead and register because we’ll have a replay that you can watch later at your own convenience. OUTLINE OF THIS EPISODE OF THE RETIREMENT ANSWER MAN [0:27] Preview of this episode: QE4, When can I retire?, the 6 biggest costs of retirement [1:14] 2 live webinars coming up: a 4 step method to determining your retirement timing THE HOT TOPIC SEGMENT [3:15] Is “Quantitative Easing 4” coming? [3:45] A good working definition of quantitative easing. [5:06] How the economic data impacts rates and QE. [6:04] What happens if quantitative easing is implemented? [8:06] The bottom line whether QE happens or not. [9:14] What to do if QE4 happens. PRACTICAL PLANNING TIP SEGMENT [10:11] Taking control: acknowledging and managing the 6 biggest costs of retiring. [10:47] The mindset that impacts the decisions you make about when to retire. [15:46] The number one biggest cost in retirement: Housing. [22:01] The second biggest cost in retirement: Healthcare. [26:28] The third biggest expense in retirement: Taxes. [31:35] The fourth biggest cost in retirement: The car you drive. [35:52] The fifth biggest expense in retirement: Travel. [37:54] The sixth biggest cost in retirement: Caring for our children. RESOURCES MENTIONED IN THIS EPISODE Register for the retirement webinar: www.RogerWhitney.com/4steps Contact Roger: http://www.rogerwhitney.com/retirementanswers/
Tuesday's podcast was titled, "Will She or Won't She?" referring to whether or not Janet Yellen would announce an interest rate hike for the first time in almost 7 years Today we got the official answer: "No." For the 54th consecutive time, the Fed has left interest rates unchanged at zero What is even more amazing, in the Q&A immediately following the announcement, Janet Yellen admitted that she could not rule out the possibility that interest rates would stay at zero forever A reporter asked her if the Fed may be trapped at zero forever Among the excuses the Fed used was problems in overseas markets, which opens up a grab bag of excuses for the Fed conveniently explain why it is not going to raise rates I said from the beginning the Fed has no intention of raising rates They also mention that these problems may spill over into the U.S. economy She also mentioned additional problems in the labor force: wages, people re-entering the workforce and more full-time jobs That is not going to improve in the next three months, yet the Fed is still pretending that it could raise rates in October or December Yellen is also no ruling out that the Fed could keep interest rates at zero forever, so who cares about what she won't rule out? Janet Yellen answered the reporter's question by saying, " We don't think we are going to be in that situation, however I can't rule it out." So the fact that she is not ruling out an October or December rate hike means nothing, because she also can't rule out zero interest rates forever What else does this tell you? She is concerned that rates will be at zero for a long time Janet Yellen believes that the Fed could actually keep interest rates forever They won't even stay at zero for the end of this decade because ther is going to be a currency crisis that forces the Fed to raise rates The only reason the Fed has maintained the illusion of control for so long is that the market is believing them When They figure what the Fed is really doing, then it is over with Then the dollar will tank, creating upward pressure on inflation They will have to raise rates; market will not give them a choice Janet Yellen does not know this Another reporter asked her if the Fed will adjust their policy if inflation gets to inflation sooner than anticipated Yellen went out of her way to state that 2% is the target, but not the ceiling I think the Fed does not have a ceiling, but the market does Another interesting discussion was regarding the balance sheet The Fed can't start shrinking the balance sheet until they raise rates Yellen admitted that since rates are still at zero, they are pushing back the time when the Fed will begin shrinking the balance sheet If the Fed never raises rates, then it can never shrink its balance sheet The Fed may never raise rates on its own volition: I know eventually they will have to raise rates And then it will be a complete catastrophe But everybody is still pretending everything is great, maybe the Fed will raise rates in October of December Here's another interesting development: the market was up all day but it sold off down 65 points. A pretty big reversal. Ultimately the Fed will have to officially take rate hikes off the table What kind of bad news will they need to do that? We got bad news today: Housing Starts were significantly below estimates and the prior month was revised down Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index had its second lowest week in a year The worst number that came out was Philly Fed - was expected to come in at +6, but actually came in at -6 The biggest miss in 4 years Given all this bad news, the Fed, under normal situations would be lowering rates I believe at some point we will see weakness on the jobs numbers I also believe this holiday season will disappoint The Fed has cracked the door for the possibility of QE4 by mentioning global market instability
It wasn't a Black Monday of the 1987 variety, but it was one for the record books The Dow was down opened downjust over 1,000 points - the biggest intra-day point drop ever When the market opened down that low, bargain hunters came in for a spectacular rally Bringing the Dow almost back into positive territory before surrendering those gains and ending the day down 588 points, another 3.5% drop, closing at 15,871 Taking out the 16,000 handle just a few days after taking out the 17,000 handle All of these drops are being blamed by the media on China The Dow Jones is down about 11% year to date After today's drop, the Chinese market was down less than 1% This is not all about falling Chinese stocks It's the Fed - Everybody believes the Fed is going to end the party As we got closer to September, the stock market was already going down I've said all along that the Fed was bluffing - it is a game of chicken Finally, today, Barclay's is predicting a Fed rate hike in March of 2016 I think the Fed will launch QE4 before we get to a rate hike in March 2016, which is an election year The media wants to blame the correction on China, as if there are no domestic problems to worry about China should be blaming it on us - we're the ones who got the world hooked on zero percent interest rates The fantasy was that we could raise rates without an impact on the economy The falling stock market is going to have an impact on the real economy The economy is weak and getting weaker This correction will turn into a full-fledged bear market unless we get some official statement from the Fed that they will not raise rates That may come later this week in Jackson Hole I am going to be in Jackson Hole at an anti-Fed conference Here's an example of how ridiculous the "Blame China" rhetoric is: Maria Bartoromo was talking about the market decline with respect to the China currency devaluation She actually said that by devaluing the Yuan, Chinese made products will be more competitive against American-made products America does not produce products that compete with Chinese products! She's grasping at straws to connect the stock market correction with the Chinese Yuan devaluation Right now it is positive for America if we can purchase Chinese products more cheaply because we're buying them anyway Eventually, however, Chinese products will get more expensive when the yuan goes up She's just trying to fit the narrative because that's what makes everybody feel comfortable That's why I am not on CNBC and CNN - they realize my comments do not support their editorial policy I am not talking about Armageddon for the markets - I am talking about the Fed saving the day I don't think the market is going to crash, but I believe it will go down until the Fed cries "Uncle" and prop up the equities markets with another round of QE The Federal Reserve did not solve our problems in 2008 - they interrupted the crisis with QE and zero percent interest rates That crisis would have solved the problem but we kicked the can down the road and we finally caught up to that can We are resuming the financial crisis that the Fed interrupted from a much deeper hole Had the Fed raised rates two years ago, we would have been in recession sooner They should have allowed the markets to solve the problems they caused Now we have more debt than ever before I have also been talking about the developments in the foreign exchange markets The dollar has been strong because rate hikes were expected The strong dollar has weakened commodities, other currencies and put pressure on emerging markets We had at one point a 4% drop against the Japanese Yen The Euro got as high as 117 this morning The dollar index closed below 93.50, which was a key support The turn in the dollar index is significant I expect gold prices to march higher Gold stocks got crushed today, however,
What a week for global stock markets, but in particular, the U.S. stock market, which had its worst week in 4 years The Dow Jones down better than 1,000 points - over 10% from its peak puts it in official correction territory One-third of the stocks in the S&P 500 are already down 20% from their highs The Dow lost more than half of the 1,000 points today - 530 points, which is the 9th biggest point decline ever This is on top of the 350 points dropped on Thursday Thursday we broke below some key technical levels so Friday's drop was inevitable There could be a bigger one looming for Monday This is reminiscent of the weekend before Black Monday back in 1987 We are only about 300 points above the lows from October last year when St. Louis Fed President James Bullard saved the market and sent the Dow up 2,000 points This time he is throwing the market an anchor He still indicates the Fed is undecided What data over the next couple of weeks could be that significant? The Fed does not want to admit that they can't raise rates When is the Fed going to blink? Valuations are extremely high, and the Fed is about to go from supporting the market to leaning against it The economy is decelerating I think the market is going to surrender all the gains it has made since March of 2009 None of those gains have been real - they did not come from increased production or a genuine increase in corporate earnings, it was all Fed engineering The market has gained no ground since QE was suspended If the market goes down on Monday, what is the Fed going to do? The Fed needs an excuse not to raise rates The drop is not because of China The problem in China and in the emerging markets is caused by the perception that U.S. Fed is going to raise rates The markets want to blame the market correction on China but that is not why our market had a correction Emerging market currencies are taking the brunt of the selling by those who are expecting a Fed rate hike The euro is very strong today, and the dollar index is declining The euro is going to go on a big move, especially if the Fed caves Gold is up $80 in the last 2 weeks What happened to the theory that gold will collapse below 1000? Two weeks ago hedge funds were for the first time net short gold How is that trade working out for them now? A lot of people are trapped short the euro and short gold Now pro-dollar bets are pressing smaller currencies This is the last throes of the dollar bull, based on the rate hikes that aren't going to happen At the end of the 6 or 7 year journey, there can't be a rate hike If the Fed actually raises rates, they lose credibility because they will have to immediately reverse course If they do not raise rates, they can say caution is needed because of another dip in the recession This way they don't have to admit that the policy was a failure The only economic data that came out today was the August Manufacturing PMI number - expected to improve over last month It dropped again to 52.9 - the lowest level since October 2013, and the biggest miss in 2 years If the Fed is truly data dependent it would have already admitted that it can't raise rates At the end of 2014, I predicted that 2015 would be a much weaker economy than forecasted I was right about that I thought by now the Fed would have admitted that the economy is too weak for a rate hike But the Fed just keeps talking about a potential rate hike as though it were a real possibility This is a very dangerous game The Fed is going to have to eventually go to QE4, but in the long term, the market actually needs tight money, but that is going to lead to a much bigger financial crisis than the one we had in 2008 Bank failures, defaults - not only on private debt but also treasuries That would ultimately be better than the massive inflation we will suffer The Fed will not have the luxury of holding bonds to maturity if it n...
On Friday we finally got the Non-Farm Payroll numbers for July The consensus is that this reports indicates that an interest rate hike is inevitable This is the rate hike that everybody has been expecting and this report see The report is weak, relative to previous months, but slightly ahead of the consensus It seems like we are going in the wrong direction Labor Force Participation Rate is stagnant at the lowest in decades Q2 GDP was much lower than expected the Atlanta GDP Now Forecast for Q3 at 1% - a third of the official forecast If the Fed was not willing to raise rates last year, when the economy grew at 5%, why would they raise rates now? The Fed may have backed themselves into a corner where they have to raise rates If so, Yellen has already prepared the market for a tiny raise They recognize that the market is fragile It would be a more credible move for the Fed to not raise rates at all The market's reaction to the jobs data and the "certainty" that rates are going up The dollar sold off somewhat Gold rose slightly Higher interest rages are expected to be bullish for the dollar - Why didn't the dollar rise? The old adage, "Buy on the rumor, sell on the fact" If the Fed raises rates in September, it will be the most highly anticipated rate hike ever If the market buys on the anticipation of a rate hike, the actual rate hike will be the sell signal The market is telling us it has gained all that it is going to gain from any future rate hike The Fed will deliver much less in the way of rate hike than the market expects The reaction in the stock market was more interesting - The market was down again The longest losing streak in the Dow in about 4 years The fact that the U.S stock market is still falling indicates whereas the currency markets may have factored in a rate hike, the equity markets have not I have been hearing the refrain,"There is no reason to fear a rate hike!" This is a very naive to look at the market because there is no historical precedent for interest rates to stay low for so long These are not "normal" times More importantly, the market only expects a rate hike if the economy get better But now the data shows that the economy is continuing to slow down The crowd that believes a rate hike will not harm the economy should reassess their thinking Corporate earnings, already under pressure will be further weakened by an interest rate hike The consumer is barely surviving with rates at zero 2015 is probably going to be the weakest year of the entire so-called recovery If the Fed really begins to raise interest rates, what is going to happen in 2016? We will be in a bear market, the real estate market will drop and a recession will follow The Fed's only medicine at that point will be QE The truth is, the economy did not need the first round of QE and it nees QE4 even less This is going to be the mother of all money drops and all the people who have been saying,"The Fed was right!" are taking a premature victory lap Hopefully it will shock the Keynesians into abandoning central banking and central planning And finally embracing a real market recovery based on free market principles Those of us who have seen the writing on the wall will be rewarded in the investment front For having the fortitude to maintain our positions and not throw in a winning hand
Another week and another round of bad economic news Wall Street may be finally paying attention JOLT Report projected at 5.158 million; came in at 4.994 million April Retail Sales expected to rise .2%; came in flat X Automobiles expected an increase of .5, actual number was .1 Beneath the surface there was a collapse in retail sales in all areas except groceries Weakest year over year increase in retail sales since 2009 Department Store Sales experienced the biggest drop since January 2014 A look beneath the headlines of the jobs numbers reveals that the jobs are not good jobs The Birth/Death Model assumption added 175,000 jobs to the last jobs report These numbers came from a biased source The fact that there is no spending is evidence that the job market is not as robust as the numbers claim Jobs numbers can be made up but retail sales can't Wall Street is surprised that we have weak data because they believe we are experiencing job growth March Business Inventories up .1% versus expectation of .2% February Business Inventories was revised down from .3% to .2% I estimate that Q1 GDP will contract by greater than 1% The Atlanta Fed just revised down their Q2 GDP estimate to .7, which would indicate the U.S. economy contracted for the first half of the year The Fed is still looking for 3% rise in GDP for 2015, which would mean we would need growth of 6% for the last half of the year It is more likely that we will get a negative number again for Q2 Two consecutive contracting quarters will indicate an official recession If we are in a recession, the Fed will not raise rates and is more likely to respond with stimulus I predicted that a pause in QE3 would trigger another recession When the Fed is unable to raise rates to stimulate the economy, the only trick they will have up their sleeve will be QE4 When that happens, the moves we saw today in the FOREX and Precious Metals markets will look tame by comparison The dollar has already broken its uptrend Europe, with the exception of Greece is experiencing growth in GDP, and Great Britain is doing better than Europe, because they shrunk their government instead of applying stimulus What we are going to get next is old-fashioned Keynesian, pump-priming stimulus Will that give us economic growth? Not a chance. The last three rounds of QE didn't give us economic growth and neither will the next one It may blow more air into the stock market bubble, but the air is going to come out of the dollar bubble even faster Where is the Fed's balance sheet going to be at the end of QE4? It is 4.5 trillion right now. How can anyone possibly believe Janet Yellen when she says she is going to shrink the balance sheet? Are creditors are going to get wise and there is going to be a run on the dollar You can see the beginnings of it today The dollar was down across the board Gold was back to about $1,250; every time it gets to this level it gets knocked down by short-sellers, but eventually they are going to have to give up All this bad economic data is going to sink in It is not the weather The market still has to adjust for the reality that the economy is really weak The Fed will not admit that QE didn't work, so in the face of recession they will have to do it again
First official jobs report of Q2 Wednesday's ADP private payrolls were below expectations March was revised down, indicating a softer labor market Challenger job cuts numbers well above previous month, biggest year over year increase in 10 years The jobs number came in at 222,000 jobs with unemployment down to 5.4% The media is spinning the headline number The picture underneath the jobs report is not as nice The March downward revision by 41,000 jobs causes one to question whether today's job number will be revised downward given all the negative underlying data The stock market recognized this; sensing the Fed will remain on pause Average Hourly Earnings increased only .1%, half expectations Numbers of Americans who have left the labor force is now at a record high When employers are changing the nature of the workforce replacing full time workers with part time workers it distorts the net number of jobs The Household Survey indicates the breakdown of full time vs. part time The government makes no such distinction In April we created 437,000 part time jobs - biggest gain in part time employment since last June The number of full time jobs declined by 252,000 - the biggest drop of the year The bad news of full time job loss is buried beneath the superficial layer of part time jobs The demographic breakdown indicates workers 55 and older gained 266,000 jobs in April Workers 25 - 54 lost 19,000 jobs This blows a hole in the notion that labor force participation is going down because of retiring baby boomers Other bad news to hit this quarter's GDP: Wholesale Trade numbers: inventories expected to rise by .3% but rose by .1% - smallest gain since March of 2013 Wholesale Sales expected to break 3-month losing streak; instead increasing streak to biggest year over year decline since November of 2008 Earlier in the week, Q1 Productivity down 1.9% following 2.1% decline last quarter Unit Labor Costs rose more than expected +5% Challenger numbers show a big explosion in layoffs The reality is that the economy is weakening rapidly The Fed and the media don't want to acknowledge this because they are afraid of how the market will react Recent encounter with Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Ben Bernanke was a speaker at the SALT conference I introduced myself to him after his presentation, told him "I am probably your biggest critic." He responded, "You have a lot of competition." Later that evening at a cocktail party I approached him and he offered to pose for a photo. Photo got more views and likes that most other photos on Facebook I tried to give him a cliff's notes version of my take on the Fed's part in the housing bubble Bernanke blamed regulations, Fannie & Freddie and the sub-prime mortgages I said the Fed created the conditions for Sub-Prime mortgages because low interest rates made them affordable I asked why he did not warn us in advance of the regulations, Fannie & Freddie and the Sub-Prime Mortgage business? Bernanke originally denied the housing bubble existed Ben Bernanke had no clue that the Fed's policies created the bubble even after it burst In hindsight, he lays blame on aspects of the market that he should have identified in advance I asked him, "how can can you be sure you were right, when interest rates are still at zero and the Fed's balance sheet still hasn't shrunk? Is there anything that might change your opinion that your decisions were right? He evaded the answer, but I believe he was sincere about his opinions Later that evening, people came up to me and commented that they appreciated the views, but that Ben Bernanke was strongly disagreeing with me Bernanke will not hold the title of worst Fed Chairman because the worst is yet to come when Janet Yellen takes us into QE4
Jason Burack of Wall st for Main St had on returning guest, hedge fund manager, author and newsletter writer of Addicted to Profits http://addictedtoprofits.net/, Dave Skarica. Dave's newest book out is, Collapse! How the Federal Reserve Created Another Stock Market Bubble And Why It Will Collapse. During this 50+ minute discussion, Jason asks Dave about his newest book, Collapse, and why the stock market hasn't collapsed yet? Dave talks about flight capital leaving other countries to come into the US and how central bankers are helping prop up asset markets. Dave doesn't think this is sustainable and that the US stock market is long overdue for a nasty and deep correction in the near future. After this massive correction or crash, Dave thinks the Federal Reserve instead of threatening to raise interest rates, will instead go for QE4 to try and manipulate interest rates lower using financial repression.Dave thinks much more painful stagflation is in the future for the US and most of the rest of the world once the US Federal Reserve reverses course. Next, Jason asks Dave if it's become increasingly more difficult to be a contrarian investor and a value investor with the Federal Reserve and other Keynesian central banks all around the globe trying to boost asset prices with QE, Wealth Effect, etc. Dave thinks it's a lot harder to be a contrarian now and Jason and Dave discuss the investing philosophy and methodology of one of the world's most famous investors, Sir John Templeton. Jason and Dave also have a long discussion about financial engineering and how it's become pervasive both in corporate America and also by governments and their central banks. Next, Dave talks about the markets he is current buying and where he sees value. Jason and Dave discuss oil, coal and the precious metals during the rest of this interview.
April Fool's Day and all the fools are buying U.S. stocks Atlanta Fed GDP Now Estimate for Q1 GDP finally down to zero Despite the fact that the economy is worse than the 2008 crisis, Wall Street expects a Q2 boom Last Q2 was boosted by Obamacare spending and inventory build No data supports wishful thinking that Q2 will stage a comeback U.S. corporate profits fell despite Wall Street gains Q4 corporate profits dropped by 3% Final revision for Q4 GDP held at 2%, weaker than expectations First back to back decline in March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment since October 2013 Personal Income and Spending rose only .1%, missing expectations for 4th consecutive month Savings rate increased to 5.8%, contrary to Fed's objective to maintain spending bubble Savings increase is problematic for the Fed because it undermines the spending spree that masquerades as wealth The Fed will have to launch QE4 to encourage more spending The March Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index plunged by 17.4%- the sharpest 1-month decline since 2008 Chicago PMI was below 50 in March - near 6 year lows March ADP numbers lowest in 14 months - biggest miss vs expected in 4 years March ISM Manufacturing Index dropped again to 51.5 - lowest level in 22 months - 5-month decline - first time since 2008 Construction spending "unexpectedly fell" Zero might not be the floor for Q1 GDP Stock market weakening again - oil and gold up U.S. dollar no longer making new highs Everyone is going to come to the same conclusion at once triggering violent moves in the market Right now there are still people willing to buy the dollar, but eventually there will be no one to take the other side of those trades Countries with smaller balance sheets will start raising rates when dollar plunges and commodities rise Friday jobs number, the Fed's gauntlet, will start reflecting the rest of the bad economic news Rate hikes are so far into the future they are beyond QE4
The Fed released long-awaited FOMC official statement Indicating they will be more patient without the word "patient" than when they were officially patient Why take the word away in the first place? The Fed wants to appear to be moving closer to a destination to which it has no intention of arriving The Fed is clearly more concerned about the economy today; they reduced growth estimates Janet Yellen said she will not raise rates until she sees improvement in the labor market The Fed not satisfied with 5-1/2% unemployment The jobs number is the outlier and will turn around Housing starts collapsed in February; biggest in 8 years Economic Surprise Index is most negative in memory It doesn't matter what the unemployment rate is; the Fed can't raise rates without creating a financial crisis worse than 2008 The minute the Fed went down the path of QE, they sealed our fate There is now so much debt that we need QE more than ever The dollar had a huge rise in anticipation of rate hikes The Fed is more likely to launch QE4 than to raise interest rates The Fed is not going to raise interest rates until there is a currency crisis When the dollar turns, commodity prices will surge in all currencies The fact that the day of reckoning has been delayed with increased debt means a bigger payday for Euro Pacific Capital investment strategy It will be better to restructure and default on some of our debt that to deflate it away Understand the end game, ride it out and have the last laugh
John Manfreda of Wall Street for Main Street interviewed Peter Schiff President of Europacific Capital, Europacific Bank, and Schiffgold. They discuss the most recent jobs report, student loan bankruptcies, Federal Reserve interest rates, global QE, gold, Austrian economics, why professionals follow Keynesian economics and don't read Austrian economics, the rise of the internet and more.
The Foreign exchange markets continue to ignore the darkening U.S. economic picture Dollar had best two-week gain since the financial crisis of 2008 Market exuberance based solely on the jobs report which is an outlier among all other negative news Why aren't the jobs numbers being questioned? We have had three consecutive months of declining retail sales Falling prices are reflecting a lack of demand The stock market has begun to decline, bracing for Fed rate hikes Gold held steady against the dollar; up against other currencies Inventory to sales ratio lowest since 2008 This week the Atlanta Fed reduced Q1 GDP down to .6% The second revision for Q4 could be below 2% Poor GDP numbers already being blamed on the weather Europe looked to US QE as a success because inflation was masked The European market is already issuing negative bonds in anticipation of ECB purchase (QE) The Germans are going to push back when they see inflation At lease Europe will be able to withstand higher rates because of smaller debt and trade deficit U.S. won't be able to tolerate the consequences of rate hikes which would ultEimately heal the economy Therefore inevitable QE4 will be even larger than QE 1,2 & 3 combined
You Know the Bubble's About to Pop When Jim Cramer Gives Germany Economic Advice Ep. 36 Oil and Russia viewed to be at the epicenter of this week's market chaos Why is the oil price dropping? The market anticipates a drop in demand due to global recession Winding down of QE triggering market instability Economic data still pointing to weakness Russia raised interest rates to 17% Ruble crisis is a "dress rehearsal" for the dollar crisis Our currency crisis will be worse because of our debt Euro and Yen rallying This morning gold was up, down, ended up Volatility indicates changing trends A recession in the U.S. means QE4
Yellen's Recovery is as real as George Costanza's Hamptons Beach House Ep. 35 Volatile Friday followed by Monday rally trend The stock market has rallied very high very fast with little technical support. The gold market had its best week relative to equities. Only a dozen markets have beaten gold this year. Rally started with Michigan Consumer Sentiment assisted by Dodd/Frank revisions. The dollar was mixed at Friday close. The oil market is indicative of the Fed's movements. The Fed's history predicts continued to support for bubbles with additional QE, despite reports to the contrary. QE4 will be bigger than previous QE's and will precipitate higher oil prices. The pretense that QE is over has fueled the market, but QE4 will trigger the bursting of multiple bubbles.
Was the U.S. Oil Boom Just Another Fed Inflated Bubble and is it Contained? Ep. 34 If oil goes down to $35/barrel we will not be able to produce oil for export at that price. It is no accident that oil prices are dropping as the Fed is ending QE. What are the implications for the U.S. Economy if the Oil Bubble bursts? Good jobs in the industry sector will go away. Oil sector business loans will default Investors will lose money. The fallout will be bigger than the dot com bubble. If oil was a bubble fueled by cheap Fed money, what's next? If the collapsing oil prices threaten recession, the Fed may launch QE4. If the Fed does not launch QE4, other bubbles will be affected.
McAlvany Weekly Commentary About this week's show: Fed will announce QE4, gold will rise Every QE has had to be bigger than the last China buys gold and copper to exit the dollar Offer from Richard Duncan: 50% discount to Macro Watch: http://www.richardduncaneconomics.com Use code: commentary About the guest: Richard Duncan is the author of numerous books including: The New […] The post Richard Duncan: QE4? “They'll have to.” appeared first on McAlvany Weekly Commentary.
Stansberry Radio - Edgy Source for Investing, Finance & Economics
This week, Richard Duncan, publisher of quarterly video newsletter Macro Watch, joins Stansberry Radio to talk about the future of the global credit nightmare.Porter starts the show off by revealing a news story most of us probably missed. Then, Richard joins the show and explains what he is seeing in the markets as a very important tipping point... Find out why he says all the excess liquidity that we've been enjoying for many years is about to evaporate in the third quarter.Richard says that if we want to make money, we have to anticipate what the government is going to do next... Here is where you get his prediction.He is also predicting that precious-metal prices will be pushed considerably higher when the announcement for QE4 is released... and you'll get all the details behind his reasoning.Porter ends the show with some more headlines for our listeners, including the controversy over the car service Uber and his commentary on the new trouble in Iraq.
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