Podcast appearances and mentions of peter atwater

What happens when confidence fades and power becomes concentrated in fewer hands? Together with Peter Atwater we explore a world dividing along lines of control and vulnerability. From geopolitical conflict and energy dominance to rising inequality and generational pressure, they describe a system under strain. The discussion connects investor behavior, policymaking, and social dynamics through a single lens: confidence. As those at the top grow more assertive and those at the bottom feel increasingly powerless, tensions build in ways that history suggests rarely resolve smoothly. This is an important and timely conversation about imbalance, reaction, and what may come next.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Peter on X.Episode TimeStamps: 01:13 - Introduction and framing the confidence discussion02:53 - The K shaped world and rising vulnerability04:43 - Behavior at the top vs nihilism at the bottom06:48 - Confidence and policymaker decision making09:27 - From hubris to desperation in global systems12:23 - Iran, energy, and geopolitical motives17:05 - Leadership confidence and timing of conflict19:09 - Affordability crisis and consumer pressure22:43 - War priorities vs economic priorities25:53 - Control, drafts, and growing tension29:11 - Authoritarian drift and system constraints33:51 - Speed of crises in a connected world39:22 - Overconfidence and blindness to risk48:15 - Powerlessness as the trigger for changeCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I'm really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

United States President Donald Trump insists he's “created the greatest economy in the history of our country”, but to middle-class and poor Americans, argues economist Peter Atwater, the president sounds out of touch. Atwater tells host Steve Clemons that the economy has taken on a “K” shape, where the arrow pointing up indicates more wealth for the already rich, while the rest are pushed downward. Zohran Mamdani's election as mayor of New York City earlier this month brought the US's “affordability crisis” to the forefront, as more people wrestle with the rising cost of food, housing and basics – amid a “no hire” job market.

Peter Atwater, one of the leading voices on confidence-driven behavior in markets and society, joins Lance Roberts to share how certainty, control, and herd mentality shape every major trend investors face today. Lance and Peter discuss The Confidence Map, why people behave differently when they're in the "comfort zone" versus the "stress center," and how these shifts explain the rise of speculative investing, the bifurcated K-shaped economy, and the growing disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street. Atwater explores how consumer confidence is driving AI enthusiasm, why the workplace has split between white-collar and blue-collar realities since Covid, and what it will take to move the U.S. back to a non-K-shaped economy. We also dive into Maslow's hierarchy, the collapse of social trust, and what happens when possibility starts to feel like threat. For investors, Atwater lays out what assets are "ice cold or lukewarm," why scrutiny and confidence move in opposite directions, and what to own when today's hot spots finally cool off. We also examine ETFs, gamified trading, the tragedy of benchmarking, and how declining confidence reshapes moral behavior in the markets. 0:00 - INTRO 0:18 - Who is Peter Atwater? 1:10 - Understanding the Behavior of the Herd 2:32 - More Certainty & Control 3:48 - The Confidence Map - The Box Chart - Comfort Zone vs Stress Center 7:03 - Consumer Confidence Metrics & the AI Space 9:24 - The Bifurcated Economy & The K-Shape; White Collar vs Blue Collar Workers During Covid 12:12 - Getting back to a non-K Economy - Looking at the cumulative impact on the economy Maslow's Hierarchy of Need - we need to start at the bottom, make those at the top more aware of what's happening around them 16:48 - What policy should be implemented to accomplish this? How to create income caps on provider side? The K-shaped economy creates slaves to two masters. 19:40 - The Mandami Effect & the risk to our system - the Bottom is really purple, not red or blue 22:35 - The Problem with the Federal Reserve Re-thinking Trickle-down Economics 24:05 - What Happens when Social Trust Collapses - Concern About AI - the furthest thing away from Main Street; when possibility begins to look like threat. 27:24 - The Economy is like a top-heavy Jenga tower, with a circle of flows instead of columns of support Reconsideration of multi-colored pie charts as measures of mood; 31:11 - What should investors own today that are ice-cold or lukewarm; Plan for what you'd like to have happen, but prepare for what you cannot imagine. Where will the money go when the hot spots cool? Scrutiny & Confidence are inversely related What do you own that's tangible? (How to test for confidence) The tragedy of Benchmarking 34:17 - Looking at ETF creation - how to look at sentiment The creation of a gambling environment in investing - the gamification of the markets 37:00 - As confidence falls, the moral compass changes The more you trade, the less money you make. 39:19 - The industry has moved to preying on investors instead of helping them 40:18 - Plan for what you can imagine, be prepared for what you cannot Panic is a reason to be optimistic 41:38 - How Certainty and Control apply at the individual level - Closing thoughts #PeterAtwater #BehavioralFinance #KShapedEconomy #InvestorPsychology #AIandMarkets

In this episode, Kathy Jones and Liz Ann Sonders discuss the latest stock market rotations and the Federal Reserve's evolving stance on interest rates.Then, Liz Ann Sonders is joined by Peter Atwater. She and Peter delve into the concept of the Confidence Map, exploring how confidence influences decision-making and risk perception in investing. They discuss the role of sentiment in investment decisions, the impact of social media on market behavior, and the importance of portfolio construction that considers investor sentiment. The conversation also touches on the K-shaped economy, highlighting the widening economic divide and its implications for society.Peter Atwater is the author of The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity.On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting. If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.Important DisclosuresThis material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. The comments, views, and opinions expressed are those of the speaker and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk.All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Diversification and rebalancing strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.Rebalancing may cause investors to incur transaction costs and, when a non-retirement account is rebalanced, taxable events may be created that may affect your tax liability.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.The book The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the books and makes no representations about its content.(1125-CU1A) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Economist and author Peter Atwater explains the “K-shaped economy” and why confidence (or its absence) drives human behavior.

PLUS: Georgia (nearly) stand alone in its embrace of touchscreen voting technology that runs afoul of its own lawGeorgia Republicans are racing toward a Florida- and Tennessee-style dream: wiping out the state income tax and pitching it as an overnight “5% raise” for struggling families. Ron digs into what the Georgia Budget and Policy Institute says really happens if lawmakers eliminate the 5.19% personal income tax that currently brings in nearly half of Georgia's revenue. Their analysis shows the state would likely need something like a 12% state sales tax, pushing the average household's tax bill up about $1,000 a year and shifting the burden onto low- and middle-income Georgians while the top 5% reap nearly half the savings. Ron walks through how tourism-dependent states like Florida and Tennessee balance their books, and why Georgia's very different economy makes copying them a recipe for a regressive tax hike dressed up as relief.From there, the conversation widens to the “K-shaped economy.” Drawing on reporting from Sasha Rogelberg and economist Peter Atwater, Ron connects the dots between flat or falling wage growth for the bottom 90%, rising subprime debt, and booming stock gains for the wealthiest households. It's not just about the numbers, he argues, but about feelings: a sea of despair at the bottom versus overconfident invulnerability at the top. That emotional gap is reshaping politics, fueling resentment, and creating a messaging test Democrats failed at in 2024 - and Trump continues to - when they insist the economy is “great” while groceries, utilities, and rent keep climbing.Then Marilyn Marks of the Coalition for Good Governance joins Ron to sound the alarm on Georgia's voting system. She explains how Dominion ballot-marking devices, giant touchscreen displays, and QR-code ballots violate both the spirit and letter of Georgia's secret-ballot laws, enable subtle hacks that leave no audit trail, and create real intimidation risks in small communities and church precincts.Marks walks through the Coffee County breach, the Curling lawsuit, and why federal experts have warned Georgia for years to fix obvious vulnerabilities. Her solution is surprisingly simple—and cheaper: warehouse most of the touchscreens, keep a few for accessibility, and join the 70% of America already using hand-marked paper ballots fed into the same scanners Georgia uses now.Tune in to catch the Ron Show weekdays from 4-6pm Eastern time on Georgia NOW! Grab the app or listen online at heargeorgianow.com. #MarilynMarks #DanielKanso #GeorgiaTaxes #ElectionSecurity #KShapedEconomy #GAPol #VoterPrivacy #EconomicJustice #IncomeTaxDebate #HearGeorgiaNow #TheRonShow

The Senate passed a deal last night to end the record-setting government shutdown. But that hasn't yet translated into relief for the beleaguered air travel industry, which has seen thousands of canceled flights in response to air traffic controller shortages. Plus, we talk with economist Peter Atwater, one of the economic researchers who first helped popularize the “K-Shaped” economy concept, about inequality in post-pandemic America.

The Senate passed a deal last night to end the record-setting government shutdown. But that hasn't yet translated into relief for the beleaguered air travel industry, which has seen thousands of canceled flights in response to air traffic controller shortages. Plus, we talk with economist Peter Atwater, one of the economic researchers who first helped popularize the “K-Shaped” economy concept, about inequality in post-pandemic America.

The US economy appears remarkably resilient right now, but if you look closer, you’ll see a different picture emerge: a growing divide between America’s wealthiest consumers and everyone else. Economists call this kind of bifurcated economy “K-shaped.” And as the top and bottom of the K have diverged, the overall economy has also become more top-heavy and more fragile. On today’s Big Take podcast, host Sarah Holder is joined by Peter Atwater – the economist who popularized the idea of a “K-shaped economy” during the pandemic – and Bloomberg reporter Catarina Saraiva, who covers the federal reserve and labor market. They examine why this gap is widening, how it’s showing up in company earnings reports and what it means for the country’s overall financial health. Read more: ‘Jenga Tower’ US Economy Teeters as Middle Class Pulls Back SpendingSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this latest episode of The Hundred Year Pivot, Demetri Kofinas and I are joined by Peter Atwater, adjunct professor at William & Mary and author of The Confidence Map: From Chaos to Clarity. Together we explore Peter's groundbreaking framework for understanding how confidence shapes behaviour, societies, and markets through four emotional quadrants: the comfort zone, the stress centre, the launch pad, and the passenger seat. What begins as a psychological model quickly expands into a sweeping reflection on generational fragility, social media conformity, and the dangerous imbalance of a world where too few people feel in control of their own lives—and where the next shift in collective mood could redefine politics, finance, and community itself. Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory, Shifts Happen and The Hundred Year Pivot, is available to Copper and Silver Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com.  Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… 

Episode 447 is the tenth installment in the Hundred Year Pivot podcast series. In it, Demetri Kofinas and Grant Williams speak with Peter Atwater, a recognized expert on the impact of confidence and mood on individual and group decision-making. Peter's work has been instrumental not only in helping his clients, students, and readers understand how people make decisions under conditions of chaos and uncertainty, but also in showing how to use those insights to gain a competitive advantage. The three begin their conversation by mapping out Peter's Confidence Quadrant and using it to explain how individuals and crowds move between feelings of high and low certainty and control. They explore the immense contemporary pressure people feel to conform—particularly on social media and in an educational system that rewards conformity. They discuss financial nihilism, the search for community in unusual places, and why real, in-person networks, relationships, and conversations matter now more than ever. The second half of the episode turns to the political economy of confidence: the rise of leader-centric movements, the fragility of "passenger-seat" societies, the lasting impact of COVID, and the "velvet-rope" economy that has transformed everything from airline cabins to financing. They discuss wealth stratification, powerlessness, the risks of a genuine socialist revolution, the search for leadership, and practical ways individuals can regain agency—through epistemic hygiene, disciplined storytelling, and service to others. Subscribe to our premium content—including our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports—by visiting HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you'd like to join the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community—with benefits like Q&A calls with guests, exclusive research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners—you can also sign up on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you enjoyed today's episode of Hidden Forces, please support the show by: Subscribing on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, Spotify, Stitcher, SoundCloud, CastBox, or via our RSS Feed Writing us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Joining our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and support the podcast at https://hiddenforces.io. Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 10/23/2025

Peter Atwater is one of the world's leading experts on confidence and its role in decision-making. He is a professor of behavioral economics at William and Mary and the author of a new book, The Confidence Map, published this year. Peter has a unique background, transitioning from a successful career in financial services to focus on studying confidence. He is a sought-after speaker and has been featured in Bloomberg Television, The Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal, and Time Magazine. Peter joined host Robert Glazer on the Elevate Podcast to discuss The Confidence Map and how confidence factors into leadership, economics, decision-making, and more. Thank you to the sponsors of The Elevate Podcast Mizzen & Main: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠mizzenandmain.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ (Promo Code: elevate20) Shopify: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠shopify.com/elevate⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Indeed: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠indeed.com/elevate⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Masterclass: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠masterclass.com/elevate⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Found: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠found.com/elevate Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

President Trump is reshaping everything, and it's causing the Left to lose its collective mind. Glenn lays out what he believes President Trump is up to as he continues to launch attacks on vessels in the Caribbean. Glenn explains his perspective on the current state of gold prices and its implications for America's crippling debt. While high-risk, Glenn believes this could be the "reset" that would put America back into a place where America's sovereignty remains secure. Glenn and Stu discuss Trump's upcoming White House ballroom, and Glenn sharing his conversation with the president about the controversial construction. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

President Trump is reshaping everything, and it's causing the Left to lose its collective mind. Glenn lays out what he believes President Trump is up to as he continues to launch attacks on vessels in the Caribbean. Who is buying up all the gold? Glenn explains his perspective on the current state of gold prices and its implications for America's crippling debt. While high-risk, Glenn believes this could be the "reset" that would put this country back into a place where America's sovereignty remains secure. Glenn goes through the Pledge of Allegiance line by line to express why the pledge is essential. The College of William & Mary adjunct lecturer Peter Atwater, who coined the term "K-shaped recovery," joins to discuss the current AI investment boom. Is this boom a bubble that could pop like the 2008 mortgage crisis? Has your life been altered in any way since the government shut down? Glenn and Stu discuss Trump's upcoming White House ballroom, and Glenn shares his conversation with the president about the controversial construction. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with Peter Atwater—President of Financial Insyghts, author of The Confidence Map, and expert on decision-making under uncertainty. Peter lays out a bold and timely framework: in a world led by dominant nationalist figures, global corporations—and their investors—must now navigate a high-stakes game of being labeled either beneficiaries or victims. This conversation digs deep into how these dynamics shape capital flows, investor sentiment, policy risk, and the future of globalization.

Today's expert, behavioral economist Peter Atwater, adjunct professor at William & Mary College, has long affirmed that changes in confidence consistently and predictably impact investor preferences, decisions and actions.Well, there's certainly been a lot happening so far this year to both spike and crash investor confidence.It's been one heck of a sentiment rollercoaster so far, with little signs that things will calm down anytime soon.What are likely to be the biggest drivers of confidence from here, and what are his key indicators are telling him about the prospects for the rest of 2025?WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#confidence #sentiment #investing _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

Have you ever found yourself wandering amidst the chaos, yearning for a guiding light of clarity? Life often presents us with moments of uncertainty and chaos, leaving us feeling adrift and in need of direction. Like travelers in a dense fog, we stumble forward, desperately seeking clarity and a sense of purpose. It is during these times that having confidence becomes paramount, for it is the beacon that guides us through the storm. Peter Atwater, a renowned author, speaker, and consultant in the field of behavioral finance and investor sentiment, delves into the profound impact of confidence on our decision-making, resilience, and overall well-being in his latest book, The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity.  Drawing from his extensive expertise in behavioral finance and investor sentiment, Peter presents a compelling framework that illuminates the intricate relationship between confidence and chaos. In this episode, Darius and Peter discuss the vital role of confidence in decision-making and behavior across various aspects of life. Peter shares the journey behind his book, The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity, emphasizing resilience in facing uncertainty and embracing growth from failure. They explore making financial decisions with uncertainty, avoiding gut-driven choices, and the importance of seeking help and feedback for personal and professional development. Topics include: The crucial role of confidence in driving decisions and behaviors in various aspects of life Peter explains the story behind The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity How resilience plays a role in dealing with uncertainty and lack of control Why it is important to embrace uncertainty and powerlessness The benefits of seeing failure as an opportunity for learning and growth Making financial decisions with an understanding that the future is uncertain Why you should avoid making decisions solely based on gut feelings Why it matters to be willing to ask for help and seek feedback to improve and grow in personal and professional endeavors And other topics… Connect with Peter: Website: https://peteratwater.com/  Book: https://peteratwater.com/books-2/  Twitter: https://twitter.com/Peter_Atwater  LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-atwater-08467034/  Connect with Darius: Website: https://therealdarius.com/ Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dariusmirshahzadeh/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/whoompdarius/ YouTube: https://therealdarius.com/youtube Book: The Core Value Equation https://www.amazon.com/Core-Value-Equation-Framework-Limitless/dp/1544506708 Sponsored by: Shopify: Sign up for a $1/month trial period at shopify.com/darius. Rocket Money: Cancel unwanted subscriptions and reach your financial goals faster at RocketMoney.com/Darius.  Write a review for The Greatness Machine using this link: https://ratethispodcast.com/spreadinggreatness.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A life-changing book and conversation My guest today is Peter Atwater; he is a Wall Street veteran and the author of a wonderful book, The Confidence Map. We are talking about everything from investing and navigating the financial crisis to what it takes to be a successful money manager. We are learning from airplane pilots, pandemic-era doctors, and more. Peter proposes an eye-opening framework, a map that has already helped me in my professional life in many ways, and I think it could guide you in your endeavors as well. Please help me welcome, Peter Atwater. When Peter Atwater turned 45, his son said, “Dad you are halfway to ninety.” Three months later he left a very successful career in financial services to do something different. After helping several hedge funds successfully navigate the 2008 banking crisis, that “something different” turned out to be studying confidence. Tossing aside his academic training in economics and his experience on Wall Street, Atwater turned to social psychology and discovered that not only do we act as we feel, but we do so consistently, too. To paraphrase Mark Twain, history rhymes for a reason. Today, Atwater is a recognized expert on the impact of confidence on individual and group decision-making. He teaches classes on the topic at his alma mater, William & Mary. And when he isn't in the classroom, you can find him leading corporate retreats, speaking on stage, and offering his insights on current events on CNBC and Bloomberg Television and in the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal and Time Magazine. In his book, The Confidence Map, Atwater shares the tools and framework he uses in his work with business leaders, investors, coaches, and public policymakers. Website:peteratwater.com Twitter: @peter_atwater Book: https://www.amazon.com/Confidence-Map-Charting-Chaos-Clarity/dp/0593539559 Takeaways: Confidence is a key factor that underpins the important choices we make. The confidence map consists of four quadrants: comfort zone, stress center, passenger seat, and launch pad. Understanding our emotions and stories can help determine our position on the confidence map. Trust is essential in both personal and professional relationships, and it is earned through consistent actions and experiences. Having clear principles and a philosophy in investing provides a solid foundation, while allowing for flexibility in individual actions. In times of crisis, shared processes and procedures are crucial for effective decision-making and reducing improvisation. Creating slack and choosing what to focus on can help navigate uncertainty and maintain a sense of control. Success is not solely about personal achievements, but also about helping others succeed and leaving a positive impact. Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm's employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies.  Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.  Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation.  Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

In the wake of the COVID-19 recession, many economists were describing the United States’ economic recovery as K-shaped. Basically, high-income Americans bounced back quicker than those at the lower end of the income scale. So, did we ever ditch that K shape? The person who coined the phrase “K-shaped recovery” back then, says no. On the show today, Peter Atwater, president of Financial Insyghts and adjunct professor at the College of William & Mary, explains why he believes economic inequality has grown since the pandemic recovery, why considerable wage gains for low-wage workers tell only part of the story and the risks of letting a K-shaped economy run wild. Then, we’ll get into how the fragility of global shipping supply chains could be playing into Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates. And, happy wedding anniversary, Susanna! Here’s everything we talked about today: “The ‘K’ Is Not OK” from LinkedIn “Inflation Is Bringing Back the K-Shaped Economy” from Bloomberg “Behind America’s divided economy: Booming luxury travel and a jump in ‘relief’ loans” from CNBC “A tight labor market and state minimum wage increases boosted low-end wage growth between 2019 and 2023” from the Economic Policy Institute “U.S. Wealth Inequality: Gaps Remain Despite Widespread Wealth Gains” from the St. Louis Federal Reserve “First publicly funded religious charter school in US ruled unconstitutional” from The Hill “Fed's Bowman Warns of Upside Risks to Inflation, Not Time to Cut” from Bloomberg “Supply Chain Under Strain as Houthis Intensify Red Sea Strikes” from The New York Times Support Make Me Smart: Marketplace.org/givesmart We love to hear from you. Send your questions and comments to makemesmart@marketplace.org or leave us a voicemail at 508-U-B-SMART.

In the wake of the COVID-19 recession, many economists were describing the United States’ economic recovery as K-shaped. Basically, high-income Americans bounced back quicker than those at the lower end of the income scale. So, did we ever ditch that K shape? The person who coined the phrase “K-shaped recovery” back then, says no. On the show today, Peter Atwater, president of Financial Insyghts and adjunct professor at the College of William & Mary, explains why he believes economic inequality has grown since the pandemic recovery, why considerable wage gains for low-wage workers tell only part of the story and the risks of letting a K-shaped economy run wild. Then, we’ll get into how the fragility of global shipping supply chains could be playing into Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates. And, happy wedding anniversary, Susanna! Here’s everything we talked about today: “The ‘K’ Is Not OK” from LinkedIn “Inflation Is Bringing Back the K-Shaped Economy” from Bloomberg “Behind America’s divided economy: Booming luxury travel and a jump in ‘relief’ loans” from CNBC “A tight labor market and state minimum wage increases boosted low-end wage growth between 2019 and 2023” from the Economic Policy Institute “U.S. Wealth Inequality: Gaps Remain Despite Widespread Wealth Gains” from the St. Louis Federal Reserve “First publicly funded religious charter school in US ruled unconstitutional” from The Hill “Fed's Bowman Warns of Upside Risks to Inflation, Not Time to Cut” from Bloomberg “Supply Chain Under Strain as Houthis Intensify Red Sea Strikes” from The New York Times Support Make Me Smart: Marketplace.org/givesmart We love to hear from you. Send your questions and comments to makemesmart@marketplace.org or leave us a voicemail at 508-U-B-SMART.

In the wake of the COVID-19 recession, many economists were describing the United States’ economic recovery as K-shaped. Basically, high-income Americans bounced back quicker than those at the lower end of the income scale. So, did we ever ditch that K shape? The person who coined the phrase “K-shaped recovery” back then, says no. On the show today, Peter Atwater, president of Financial Insyghts and adjunct professor at the College of William & Mary, explains why he believes economic inequality has grown since the pandemic recovery, why considerable wage gains for low-wage workers tell only part of the story and the risks of letting a K-shaped economy run wild. Then, we’ll get into how the fragility of global shipping supply chains could be playing into Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates. And, happy wedding anniversary, Susanna! Here’s everything we talked about today: “The ‘K’ Is Not OK” from LinkedIn “Inflation Is Bringing Back the K-Shaped Economy” from Bloomberg “Behind America’s divided economy: Booming luxury travel and a jump in ‘relief’ loans” from CNBC “A tight labor market and state minimum wage increases boosted low-end wage growth between 2019 and 2023” from the Economic Policy Institute “U.S. Wealth Inequality: Gaps Remain Despite Widespread Wealth Gains” from the St. Louis Federal Reserve “First publicly funded religious charter school in US ruled unconstitutional” from The Hill “Fed's Bowman Warns of Upside Risks to Inflation, Not Time to Cut” from Bloomberg “Supply Chain Under Strain as Houthis Intensify Red Sea Strikes” from The New York Times Support Make Me Smart: Marketplace.org/givesmart We love to hear from you. Send your questions and comments to makemesmart@marketplace.org or leave us a voicemail at 508-U-B-SMART.

In markets as in life, sentiment drives decision making. And until sentiment shifts, the status quo will maintain. Even when at extreme conditions. Today's guest has made the study of sentiment his life's work. Which is particularly timely given that consumer confidence continues to plunge, with the recent April Consumer Confidence numbers coming in far below the consensus estimate. This is important because when it comes to the markets, as well as a number of other issues central to our way of life, we may be walking dangerously close to a tipping point where the prevailing sentiment suddenly reverses and the herd bolts in an unexpected direction -- potentially leading to sharp changes most will be caught unawares by. So what do we need to be keeping our eyes on most closely? To find out, we're fortunate to speak today with behavioral economist Peter Atwater, adjunct professor at William & Mary College, and author of the book The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity. We'll ask him what his key confidence indicators are telling him about the prospects for the rest of 2024. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #socialunrest #bullmarket #sentiment

Peter Atwater is one of the world's leading experts on confidence and its role in decision-making. He is a professor of behavioral economics at William and Mary and the author of a new book, The Confidence Map, published this year. Peter has a unique background, transitioning from a successful career in financial services to focus on studying confidence. He is a sought-after speaker and has been featured in Bloomberg Television, The Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal, and Time Magazine. Peter joined host Robert Glazer on the Elevate Podcast to discuss The Confidence Map and how confidence factors into leadership, economics, decision-making, and more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Peter Atwater joins us to explore the hidden role of confidence in the choices we make, and why events described as being unprecedented are often entirely predictable—if we know what to look for. You'll learn how to spot opportunities, avoid psychological traps, and navigate the road ahead with clarity and confidence.

Today's guests are Peter Atwater and Grant Williams, two guys that have known each other for a decade. Peter is a professor and author of The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity. Grant is the author of the newsletter Things That Make you Go Hmmm… and host of The Grant Williams Podcast. He was also a co-founder of Real Vision. Today's episode is a masterclass in how to analyze market sentiment, which seems particularly timely given how the market has been lately. Peter shares his framework for looking at the world through the lens of certainty and control and how that drives consumer confidence. Then he and Grant kick around a bunch of topics, including the relationship between natural gas and Nvidia, Elon Musk and the velvet rope economy, gold and Bitcoin, the opportunity in Japan, and much, much more. (1:40) - Welcome to our guests, Peter Atwater and Grant Williams (2:28) - Confidence and vulnerability's role in financial market (6:18) - Elon Musk 0 - 60mph Tweet (10:21) - Peter's take on natural gas and Nvidia (13:17) - Class versus wealth (17:30) - Thoughts on gold and Bitcoin (22:38) - The world of luxury (28:43) - The UK stock market (33:10) - Why Grant is excited about the Japanese stock market (37:14) - Who would Grant want to interview today? (38:23) - Modern-Day Asset Management Business w/ Anthony Deden (44:29) - Peter and Grant's most controversial opinions (48:59) - Peter and Grant's most memorable investments ----- Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Sponsor: Today's episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world's largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here. Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.  ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

With the Enneagram, what we do is not as important as why we do the things we do. This also applies to confidence.  Behavioral economics pioneer, internationally sought-after consultant, and professor of confidence-driven decision-making Peter Atwater explains,  “The ‘why' to me is all related to our feelings of certainty and control because when I boil down what confidence is it's knowing what's coming and feeling like we are prepared for it.”   Today, we explore what confidence is and how to cultivate confidence….We dig into Peter's new book and go over his confidence quadrant framework, which includes the stress center, comfort zone, passenger seat, and the launchpad. It's a tool you can use to not only understand yourself better but to understand those around you better. This is a rich conversation and you're going to want to grab this book, The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity.  To learn more about Peter Atwater, visit his website, check out his TED Talks and pick up a copy of The Confidence Map.   

Bloomberg Radio host Barry Ritholtz speaks with Peter Atwater, president of Financial Insyghts and an adjunct professor at William & Mary and the University of Delaware. He studies the impact of changing confidence on consumer decision-making and advises investors, businesses and policymakers. He coined the term “K-shaped recovery" to describe the pandemic's effects on the economy. Atwater previously ran JPMorgan's asset-backed securities business and served in executive roles at First USA, Bank One and Juniper Financial.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Peter Atwater, President of Financial Insyghts, discusses the outlook for earnings and the impact of a possible government shutdown on the business sector. Erik Wasson joins to discuss the latest on a potential shutdown. Steve Case, Chairman and CEO at Revolution, discusses his book Rise of the Rest: How Entrepreneurs in Surprising Places are Building the New American Dream. Paul Hsu, CEO at Decasonic, talks about the mainstream adoption of web3. And we Drive to the Close with Stephanie Pierce, CEO of Dreyfus, Mellon and ETFs at BNY Mellon. Hosts: Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec Producer: Paul Brennan See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Our guest today is Peter Atwater, President of Financial Insyghts and an adjunct professor at William & Mary and the University of Delaware. He studies the impact of changing confidence on consumer decision-making, using his research to advise investors, business leaders, and policymakers. In 2023, he released the book, The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity.    In today's episode, Peter walks through some of the key topics in the world today, including the dominance of U.S. stocks, the rise of grifters in the past few years, why he coined the term K-Shape Recovery in 2020. Everything Peter discusses is through the lens of the decision-making framework laid out in his recent book, which is the best writing about the way feelings of confidence and vulnerability relate to the markets at any given time.    Our co-hosts today are Chris Cannon, CFA, and myself, Colby Donovan, CFA. Please enjoy the episode.  Follow the CFA Society of Orlando on Twitter at @CFAOrlandoFL

Join us for a captivating episode where we delve into the hidden influence of confidence in our decision-making. Discover why seemingly unprecedented events are often predictable with the right insights. Peter Atwater provides an accessible framework for understanding confidence, helping us navigate uncertainty and lack of control. Our conversation delves into how confidence impacts politics and the economy, as well as how we can nurture confidence in the younger generation to face life's challenges with resilience. Tune in to gain valuable perspectives on the role of confidence in shaping our world.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Peter on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:04 - What does confidence mean to Peter?04:38 - The feeling of vulnerability06:19 - Being in the present07:57 - Understanding the confidence map12:08 - How to become confident13:32 - Peter's advice for the younger audience17:02 - Having confidence is not a constant17:48 - Learnings from a traumatic experience21:23 - Map it out22:33 - Why is sentiment changing so quickly?28:05 - The generational shift30:49 - Is crypto the new Woodstock?36:15 - Is the Fed losing the...

When big events happen in the markets, or even in history, analysts, economists and journalists set out to discover what led to those events, often working backwards, organizing a chain of events into a logical timeline. But on the flip side, accurate forecasting is a far harder skill to master and Professor Peter Atwater, behavioral economics pioneer, suggests that the same deciding factors we see so easily in hindsight could in fact be easier to see in the present if only we looked through the right lens.This content is for informational purposes only and is not an offer or a solicitation. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the listener. In the UK and Non-European Economic Area countries, this is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. In the European Economic Area, this is authorised and regulated by the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets. For full disclosures go to Blackrock.com/corporate/compliance/bid-disclosuresSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

I sit down with Peter Atwater to find out more about how social mood affects decision making, the economy and the markets. Nir And Far, a podcast about business, behaviour and the brain by Nir Eyal. If you enjoy this podcast, please subscribe on iTunes and leave an iTunes review. It will greatly help new listeners discover the show. Please visit my website Nir and Far for other info about my writing, books and teaching: http://www.nirandfar.com/ --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/nirandfar/support

There's an old saying in investing: The market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Why is that? Well, it has a lot to do with how humans make decisions. It's not alway -- or even often -- rational. And today's expert, behavioral economist Peter Atwater, adjunct professor at William & Mary College, has long affirmed that changes in confidence consistently and predictably impact investor preferences, decisions and actions. He's out with a brand new book, The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity, that shares a groundbreaking framework for making better decisions -- in investing and in life in general -- by understanding – and mastering – confidence. We'll also ask him what his key confidence indicators are telling him about the prospects for the rest of 2023. ************************************************* At Wealthion, we show you how to protect and build your wealth by learning from the world's top experts on finance and money. Each week we add new videos that provide you with access to the foremost specialists in investing, economics, the stock market, real estate and personal finance. We offer exceptional interviews and explainer videos that dive deep into the trends driving today's markets, the economy, and your own net worth. We give you strategies for financial security, practical answers to questions like “how to grow my investments?”, and effective solutions for wealth building tailored to 'regular' investors just like you. There's no doubt that it's a very challenging time right now for the average investor. Above and beyond the recent economic impacts of COVID, the new era of record low interest rates, runaway US debt and US deficits, and trillions of dollars in monetary and fiscal stimulus stimulus has changed the rules of investing by dangerously distorting the Dow index, the S&P 500, and nearly all other asset prices. Can prices keep rising, or is there a painful reckoning ahead? Let us help you prepare your portfolio just in case the future brings one or more of the following: inflation, deflation, a bull market, a bear market, a market correction, a stock market crash, a real estate bubble, a real estate crash, an economic boom, a recession, a depression, or another global financial crisis. Put the wisdom from the money & markets experts we feature on Wealthion into action by scheduling a free consultation with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors, who will work with you to determine the right next steps for you to take in building your wealth. SCHEDULE YOUR FREE WEALTH CONSULTATION with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.wealthion.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKMeK-HGHfUFFArZ91rzv5A?sub_confirmation=1⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow Adam on Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/menlobear⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow us on Facebook: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/Wealthion-109680281218040⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ #classwar #wealthgap #behavioraleconomics ************************************************* IMPORTANT NOTE: The information and opinions offered in this video by Wealthion or its interview guests are for educational purposes ONLY and should NOT be construed as personal financial advice. We strongly recommend that any potential decisions and actions you may take in your investment portfolio be conducted under the guidance and supervision of a quality professional financial advisor in good standing with the securities industry. When it comes to investing, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections may not reflect actual future performance. All investments involve risk and may result in partial or total loss.

I speak to Peter Atwater, author of The Confidence Map about understanding the role of emotions in decision making. Peter is also an adjunct professor at William & Mary, where we both are alumni.  By plotting our experiences across four boxes, we can gain powerful insight into our decision-making process: Stress Center = low control/low certainty Comfort Zone = high control/high certainty Launch Pad = high control/low certainty Passenger Seat= low control/high certainty Subscribe To Financial Samurai Join 60,000+ others and sign up for my free weekly newsletter so you never miss a thing. You can also get every post I publish immediately in your inbox by signing up here.  If you enjoy this episode, please share, rate, and subscribe. It helps the FS podcast grow!

If you've been wondering HOW to get where you want to go. If you've been wondering WHY you aren't getting the results you want. If you wonder WHERE you should look for better ideas, Peter Atwater has you covered on today's show. We recorded this podcast two weeks ago and we have already referenced it in SO MANY other situations…Peter Atwater joins us to talk confidence when investing, when managing, when leading…and generally when living. At first, we didn't understand why this was the breakthrough idea, but the longer we sat with it, the more we referenced his idea.But that's not all. In our headline segment, 401k balances are rising, but 401 hardship loans are through the roof. What's going on? We'll share ideas (and solutions if you're borrowing from your 401k). Plus, we also have our TikTok minute, throw out the Haven Life line to a lucky listener, and more.FULL SHOW NOTES: https://www.stackingbenjamins.com/creating-stories-to-find-confidence-peter-atwater-1395Deeper dives with curated links, topics, and discussions are in our newsletter, The 201, available at https://www.stackingbenjamins.com/201Enjoy! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoicesSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

If you've been wondering HOW to get where you want to go. If you've been wondering WHY you aren't getting the results you want. If you wonder WHERE you should look for better ideas, Peter Atwater has you covered on today's show. We recorded this podcast two weeks ago and we have already referenced it in SO MANY other situations…Peter Atwater joins us to talk confidence when investing, when managing, when leading…and generally when living. At first, we didn't understand why this was the breakthrough idea, but the longer we sat with it, the more we referenced his idea. But that's not all. In our headline segment, 401k balances are rising, but 401 hardship loans are through the roof. What's going on? We'll share ideas (and solutions if you're borrowing from your 401k). Plus, we also have our TikTok minute, throw out the Haven Life line to a lucky listener, and more. FULL SHOW NOTES: https://www.stackingbenjamins.com/creating-stories-to-find-confidence-peter-atwater-1395 Deeper dives with curated links, topics, and discussions are in our newsletter, The 201, available at https://www.stackingbenjamins.com/201 Enjoy! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Author Peter Atwater joins The Wall Street Coach Podcast to talk about his book, "The Confidence Map," which is a current must-read for anyone who wants to improve their decision-making. The post Ep 83: Peter Atwater on Confidence-Driven Decision-Making appeared first on .

What does our desire for certainty and control have to do with our decision-making? According to behavioral economics pioneer Peter Atwater, the answer is simple: everything. Today, Peter joins us to talk about how to get comfortable without certainty or control, why powerlessness is a choice, and why the future we imagine is consistent with how we feel today. I'm really excited to talk with Peter about the hidden role of confidence in the choices we make, and why events described as being unprecedented are often entirely predictable—if we know what to look for. Dive Deeper: If you enjoy this episode with Peter, I'm sure you'll also enjoy the following: 347: Dr. Henry Cloud on When to Withhold Trust, Emotional Regulation, Developing Discernment, and Why “Believing the Best” Might Be Bad Advice 349: Mark Batterson on How Science Proves that Our Words Create Our Worlds, Learning Non-Anxious Curiosity, and How to Become More Emotionally Intelligent ++++++ Episode Links: Peter Atwater's Website | Twitter | Buy Peter's book on Amazon! Subscribe to #WinTodayShow on YouTube. Join the conversation wherever hashtags are welcome using #WinTodayShow. Get the "Win the Week" email newsletter here. ************************** This week's show partner(s): Get LMNT and a free gift with your purchase here! **************************

On episode 91, Julia La Roche is joined by Peter Atwater, an adjunct professor of economics at William & Mary, and author of "The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity". Atwater explains how confidence is the real "invisible hand" in our economy, markets, and everyday lives. He also shares his concern about the divergent economy, where billionaire confidence is soaring while a large population feels left behind, not only in the US but also in other countries. Atwater is the first who shared the notion of a K-shaped recovery in the economy. Links:  The Confidence Map: https://www.amazon.com/Confidence-Map-Charting-Chaos-Clarity/dp/0593539559/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/Peter_Atwater LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-atwater-08467034/ Peter's website: https://peteratwater.com/ 0:00 Intro / Background 2:48 Psychology of investor decision-making and economic decision-making 3:35 Behavioral economists typically focus on what we do wrong 4:30 The role of confidence  6:40 Confidence Quadrant framework  10:00 Application of the Confidence Quadrant on macro/micro level  13:00 Executives discussing AI  14:47 Investors are in the “comfort zone” on the Confidence Quadrant  15:35 The K-shaped recovery  17:48 If markets were to price in Main Street sentiment they would considerably lower  18:30 Two different sets of moods and preferences  20:30 Assessment of the current state of America today  24:00 Evaluating consumer confidence and the 2016 election  28:00 Gen Z's confidence?  31:00 Millennials' sentiment  33:00 Real life moves us around  35:00 Music and the mood  38:00 Taylor Swift phenomenon  39:30 Peak confidence?  40:30 Mania in the Magnificent Seven  41:15 Passive investing puts investors in the “passenger seat”  44:00 Elon Musk is the “Kevin Bacon” of every popular investment theme 47:20 Media is the “mirror of mood”  50:30 Why confidence is the real “invisible hands”  53:00 Best indicator of an upcoming recession  55:00 Bidenomics is another sentiment indicator  

Have you ever found yourself wandering amidst the chaos, yearning for a guiding light of clarity? Life often presents us with moments of uncertainty and chaos, leaving us feeling adrift and in need of direction. Like travelers in a dense fog, we stumble forward, desperately seeking clarity and a sense of purpose. It is during these times that having confidence becomes paramount, for it is the beacon that guides us through the storm. Peter Atwater, a renowned author, speaker, and consultant in the field of behavioral finance and investor sentiment, delves into the profound impact of confidence on our decision-making, resilience, and overall well-being in his latest book, The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity.  Drawing from his extensive expertise in behavioral finance and investor sentiment, Peter presents a compelling framework that illuminates the intricate relationship between confidence and chaos. In this episode, Darius and Peter discuss the vital role of confidence in decision-making and behavior across various aspects of life. Peter shares the journey behind his book, The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity, emphasizing resilience in facing uncertainty and embracing growth from failure. They explore making financial decisions with uncertainty, avoiding gut-driven choices, and the importance of seeking help and feedback for personal and professional development. Topics include: The crucial role of confidence in driving decisions and behaviors in various aspects of life Peter explains the story behind The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity How resilience plays a role in dealing with uncertainty and lack of control Why it is important to embrace uncertainty and powerlessness The benefits of seeing failure as an opportunity for learning and growth Making financial decisions with an understanding that the future is uncertain Why you should avoid making decisions solely based on gut feelings Why it matters to be willing to ask for help and seek feedback to improve and grow in personal and professional endeavors And other topics… Connect with Peter: Website: https://peteratwater.com/  Book: https://peteratwater.com/books-2/  Twitter: https://twitter.com/Peter_Atwater  LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-atwater-08467034/  Connect with Darius: Website: https://therealdarius.com/ Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dariusmirshahzadeh/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/whoompdarius/ YouTube: https://therealdarius.com/youtube Book: The Core Value Equation https://www.amazon.com/Core-Value-Equation-Framework-Limitless/dp/1544506708 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Peter Atwater, Adjunct Professor of Economics at William & Mary, discusses his book The Confidence Map: Charting a Path From Chaos to Clarity. Hosts: Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec. Producer: Paul Brennan. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What does our desire for certainty and control have to do with our decision-making? According to behavioral economics pioneer Peter Atwater, the answer is simple: everything.In his book, "The Confidence Map," Atwater explores the hidden role of confidence in the choices we make, and why events described as being unprecedented are often entirely predictable—if we know what to look for.

Ever wondered how your confidence level influences your decision making and how understanding this concept could be a game changer in the world of finance? Tune into our engaging conversation with Peter Atwater, author of  the new book The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity. You probably know Peter as the thought-leader who coined the term 'K-shaped recovery.' In this interview we navigate the intriguing facets of confidence mapping, from the two critical axes of certainty and control to the four quadrants — the Comfort Zone, the Stress Center, the Passenger Seat, and the Launch Pad — each providing unique insights into our behaviors and responses.   As our dialogue deepens, we explore how personal vulnerabilities can act as catalysts in decision making, shifting our focus to immediate concerns and diminishing strategic thinking. Peter introduces us to the concept of the 'five Fs,' a framework delineating our reactions to stress and providing strategies to evade the negative reinforcement loop of catastrophizing. This discussion serves as a critical reminder of our need to manage vulnerability and anxiety to make more informed decisions.   Our discussion then takes a leap into the world of finance, revealing how these concepts can significantly impact investment strategies. We dissect the five reactions to intense vulnerability — fight, flight, freeze, follow, and nihilism — and their crucial role in risk assessment and decision-making within the investment landscape. To cap it off, Peter shares invaluable insights from his own career journey, underlining the importance of understanding the crowd and its sentiment. So, join us for this insightful episode where we delve into the human psyche, its impact on our decision making, and the role it plays in the world of finance.

In Episode 320 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Peter Atwater, a recognized expert on the impact of confidence on individual and group decision-making, which he examines in his book, “The Confidence Map: Charting a Path From Chaos to Clarity.” In today's conversation, you are going to learn about the hidden role that confidence plays in the choices we make, and why events that are often described as being unprecedented are more often than not entirely predictable if we know what to look for. In the first hour, Atwater and Kofinas go through the framework that Peter has put forward in his book—what he calls the confidence quadrant. In the second hour, the two apply this framework to both the world at large, as well as to our own lives by examining what we can do to be better prepared for the inevitable crises that come with living a human life. What are the steps that we can we take when facing an overwhelming challenge—when we are deep inside what Peter calls “the stress center”—to alleviate some of its symptoms and help us make better decisions on our way to higher ground? You can subscribe to our premium content and gain access to our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports (or Key Takeaways) at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page. If you still have questions, feel free to email info@hiddenforces.io, and Demetri or someone else from our team will get right back to you. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 07/19/2023

What exactly is confidence? Peter Atwater describes it as the feelings of certainty and control that we have about our future self. He explains The Confidence Map framework and how our horizon preference and vulnerability first mindset change, based on our level of confidence.   Peter Atwater is an adjunct professor of economics at Williams and Mary University, and the President of financial insights, a consulting firm that advises global policymakers on how social mood affects decision making, the economy and the markets. He is known for coining the “K-shaped recovery” which is an economic term used by political and economic leaders. Most recently, he has examined the hidden role of confidence in the choices we make, in his new book “The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity”.     Confidence is inherently forward-looking and involves imagining the future, which is inherently uncertain. To illustrate this, Peter introduces us to the Confidence Map, a two-by-two grid with certainty on the x-axis and control on the y-axis. The upper right quadrant represents high confidence where there is both high certainty and control. This is the "comfort zone." The lower left quadrant represents low confidence due to low certainty and control. This is the "stress center."   The other two quadrants represent situations where there is only one of the two factors needed for confidence. The "passenger seat" quadrant has uncertainty but no control, like being a passenger in a car. The "launchpad" quadrant has control but no certainty, like pulling the lever on a slot machine.   Overconfidence and under confidence can both be issues. Organizations often ignore the vulnerability people feel during a crisis, focusing only on fixing the problem, as Boeing did during the 737 Max disasters.   Listen to Tim and Kurt's discussion with Peter and the following Grooving Session to learn how confidence can be both an input and output of decision-making and about the complex interplay between feelings, stories and actions.   We hope you enjoy listening to our discussion with Peter and if you would like to support the work of Behavioral Grooves, we would love you to join our Behavioral Grooves Patreon membership.   Topics  (2:15) Welcome and speed round questions. (4:44) What is confidence? (7:50) The confidence quadrant. (12:55) Can you have too much confidence and can it be false? (15:49) How Behavioral Economics influences our financial decision making. (18:42) Why groups can overestimate outcomes. (20:42) Confidence is both an input and an output. (23:39) Horizon preference and confidence. (27:29) What is a vulnerability first mindset? (29:33) How Boeing focused on the wrong issue with the 737 Max disasters. (32:19) What music would Peter take to a desert island? (34:44) Grooving Session with Kurt and Tim on confidence.   © 2023 Behavioral Grooves   Links  Peter Atwater: https://peteratwater.com/  Peter Atwater's book: The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity: https://amzn.to/3NB2gM3 Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky (1974) Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Science: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.185.4157.1124  Episode 31, Leaving the Matrix: Annie Duke and Insights into how you can improve your thinking! https://behavioralgrooves.com/episode/leaving-the-matrix-annie-duke-and-insights-into-how-you-can-improve-your-thinking/ Boeing 737 Max grounding: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737_MAX_groundings  Behavioral Grooves Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/behavioralgrooves    Musical Links  Steve Sondheim “Send in the Clowns”:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UBuDSsc9Pak George Winston “Autumn”: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKmqyQUDehs

#452: Peter Atwater, an economics professor at The College of William and Mary and author of “The Confidence Map,” joins us to discuss how confidence shapes our financial markets. He explains how The Hunger Games relates to the Lehman Brothers collapse. He describes why you should “Buy Adele and Sell Pharrell.” From the Panic of 1857 to the patterns behind modern media consumption, Peter talks us through the intricate web of behavioral oddities that extend beyond finance. He talks about the “K-shaped recovery” – how different segments of the population are experiencing different economic realities. He touches upon economic, political, and social trends, and the hidden dynamics that shape market behavior and reveal the profound impact of consumer confidence. Our conversation will leave you with a deeper understanding of how behavioral patterns shape the financial landscape – including your investments. Enjoy! For more information, visit the show notes at https://affordanything.com/episode452 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The 2024 presidential campaign is already well underway, but today we’re going to take a step back and examine the connection between Barack Obama’s presidency and the rise of white racial violence. It’s what Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Wesley Lowery calls the “American Whitelash” (also the title of his new book), which to some extent is rooted in economic fear. On the show today: How the election of former President Obama spurred a white racist backlash, why economic fear is entangled with xenophobia and the media’s role in all of it. Plus, is the media ready to cover the 2024 elections? (Spoiler: It’s not). Later, we'll explain how Russia's decision to pull back from a wartime agreement on grain exports will hurt countries that suffer from food insecurity. And, why the Joe Biden administration's plan to restrict investment in Chinese tech could get a bit messy. Then, a listener tells us how their home state is dealing with flighty insurers. And, economist Peter Atwater shares that he was wrong about what it really means to have confidence. Here’s everything we talked about today: “The ‘American Whitelash' Is Far From Over” from Politico “Support for the Black Lives Matter Movement Has Dropped Considerably From Its Peak in 2020” from Pew Research Center “Trump's history of inciting violence in words and tweets: A timeline from 2015 through the Capitol attack” from Vox “Why allowing Ukraine to ship grain during Russia’s war matters to the world” from AP News “US Plans Narrow China Tech Investment Limits, Likely by 2024” from Bloomberg We want to hear your answer to the Make Me Smart question. You can reach us at makemesmart@marketplace.org or leave us a voicemail at 508-U-B-SMART.

The 2024 presidential campaign is already well underway, but today we’re going to take a step back and examine the connection between Barack Obama’s presidency and the rise of white racial violence. It’s what Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Wesley Lowery calls the “American Whitelash” (also the title of his new book), which to some extent is rooted in economic fear. On the show today: How the election of former President Obama spurred a white racist backlash, why economic fear is entangled with xenophobia and the media’s role in all of it. Plus, is the media ready to cover the 2024 elections? (Spoiler: It’s not). Later, we'll explain how Russia's decision to pull back from a wartime agreement on grain exports will hurt countries that suffer from food insecurity. And, why the Joe Biden administration's plan to restrict investment in Chinese tech could get a bit messy. Then, a listener tells us how their home state is dealing with flighty insurers. And, economist Peter Atwater shares that he was wrong about what it really means to have confidence. Here’s everything we talked about today: “The ‘American Whitelash' Is Far From Over” from Politico “Support for the Black Lives Matter Movement Has Dropped Considerably From Its Peak in 2020” from Pew Research Center “Trump's history of inciting violence in words and tweets: A timeline from 2015 through the Capitol attack” from Vox “Why allowing Ukraine to ship grain during Russia’s war matters to the world” from AP News “US Plans Narrow China Tech Investment Limits, Likely by 2024” from Bloomberg We want to hear your answer to the Make Me Smart question. You can reach us at makemesmart@marketplace.org or leave us a voicemail at 508-U-B-SMART.

"Behavioral Finance" is all the rage. BeFi (as the not-so-cool kids in the financial world call it) is the next phase in guiding individuals, teams, boards, companies, and leaders to better decision-making. There is plenty of material telling us where people get it wrong. Even the best brains get deceived by a litany of behavioral biases. These biases cause people to fall off the track of economic rationality. However, even with all of these labels, there is little guidance on how to identify and use this context. Until now . . . PETER ATWATER argues in his new book "THE CONFIDENCE MAP" that there is a straight forward mental model. https://www.amazon.com/Confidence-Map-Charting-Chaos-Clarity/dp/0593539559/ It can diagnose an individual's emotion and confidence, its directionality and its relationship to group and social mood. Further, Peter asserts that people (and their advisors) can use this information to pull decision-makers out of the own limitations of their own silos. People will be able to recognize what is occurring in their surroundings, mitigate risk and maximize opportunity.  We'll discuss Peter's findings, the mental model he's developed and, finally, the process of writing the book.  Outline Quick background- The Confidence Map- central tenet of the book The context of one's place on the confidence map has as much to do with the decision making process as data and logic. Rationale behind the book - what was the problem that you were seeing? What was your research showing? Examples Johnson and Johnson Tylenol Case Boeing 737 Dreamliner Bud Light Defining the axis- Toggling between "Certainty and Control" Toggling between "Confidence and vulnerability" (not price!  Are humans innumerate?) Mapping human confidence (and using it in a forward looking manner) Individuals and recognizing their own position in the chart Leaders looking at group confidence and mood "at scale" to mark strategic shifts Collective mood vs individual mood Defining the group (which group is the individual following) Recognizing where one is on the map personally vs the group vs the masses Augmenting "behavioral finance" Behavioral economics tries to give us the tools and bias catalogues of where human beings fall off the train of rationality How do we think about the confidence map to help people predict (and avoid) their own frailties - especially around big decisions? What is the "equipment" you need to use these tools effectively to help me to understand their decision contexts and make better decisions (potentially in times of maximum stress)?  Is there a danger that this is giving a loaded gun to the financial services industrial complex? What was the book writing process like? Turning a box of ornaments into a Christmas Tree Using a Coach What were the struggles? How do we stay in touch? https://peteratwater.com/ Linkedin: Peter AtwaterTwitter: @peter_atwater Amazon: THE CONFIDENCE MAP https://www.amazon.com/Wealth-Actually-Intelligent-Decision-Making-1-ebook/dp/B07FPQJJQT/

My returning guest in this edition of The Grant Williams Podcast is my friend Peter Atwater, Founder of Financial Insyghts and Adjunct Professor at the College of William & Mary. Peter's stellar work on the importance of mood and confidence has long been an important touchpoint for me when evaluating market conditions and likely paths ahead - never more so than this week. Given recent events, I wanted to try and add something to a conversation that has become noisier by the day. There are plenty of opinions and perspectives flying around (to which I'll add my own in this weekend's Things That Make You Go Hmmm…) and so it felt as though a conversation with Peter about the effect the twin collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank this week are likely to have on public mood was a better contribution than debating the fast-moving details of what's happening. Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game and Shifts Happen, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com. Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.