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In this episode, Vincent Deluard joins the show to discuss his on-the-money inflation calls and future outlook, the consequences of Trump's tariff flip-flopping, and the buyers of US duration. We also delve into the impact of DOGE, the Trump Admin's Treasury market goals, the surge in foreign yields, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Vincent Deluard: https://x.com/VincentDeluard Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:40) Inflation Predictions and Seasonal Adjustments (05:50) Stagflation Concerns and Economic Slowdown (07:33) State-Level Spending and Fiscal Policy (17:42) Tariffs & the Art of the Deal (19:25) Economic Noise vs Signal (23:36) Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy (25:36) DAS Promo (26:13) Bond Market and Liquidity (33:23) Target Date Funds (36:17) Trump Administration Goals (51:06) Surge in Foreign Yields (59:22) Market Predictions (01:03:36) Learn More About Vincent __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Is the stock market alarm about to sound the growth alarm or the inflation alarm? Not so fast, says Vincent Deluard, he believes growth is due for a fall before inflation, and the Fed's hands are tied after losing "a lot of political capital" by downplaying inflation. He thinks a "stagflation remix" could be on the horizon, which would be "the absolute worst for risk assets."======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
This week, Kevin & Patrick welcome back to the show, Vincent Deluard. They discuss fiscal tightening, inflation, and a potential stagflation bear in 2025. They also break down spending cuts, key trades, tax remittances, and Trump's impact on the USD and global markets. Follow Ole on X: @vincentdeluard Subscribe To Patrick's New Educational Series ONLY available on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@Patrick_Ceresna Visit our merch store!!! https://www.themarkethuddlemerch.com/ To receive our emails with the charts and links each week, please register at: https://markethuddle.com/
The U.S. reportedly delayed its 25% tariffs on Mexico by a month as President Trump discusses Canada's tariffs with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Vincent Deluard believes the unpredictability of tariffs will damage the U.S. markets long-term. He expects stocks to turn bearish as early as the spring in a market "vulnerable to correction." ======== Schwab Network ======== Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribe Download the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185 Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7 Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watch Watch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-explore Watch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/ Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
Vincent Deluard is worried that growth will slow as pandemic-issued debt comes due in 2025. He thinks inflation could rebound next year, though he doesn't expect a recession, citing pulled-forward demand ahead of tariffs. He talks about the risks of a financial bubble as asset prices remain elevated across pockets of the market, including memecoins. ======== Schwab Network ======== Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribe Download the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185 Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7 Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watch Watch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-explore Watch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/ Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome back, Vincent Deluard. They'll discuss secular inflation, the gig economy, and what Vincent calls the 'shadow lending and savings markets.' He'll also share his outlook on precious metals post-election and introduce a new theory: The '5-Body Problem.' https://bit.ly/3UT7cQN ⚫ Follow Vincent on X: https://www.x.com/VincentDeluard
In this week's edition of Wealthion's Weekly Market Recap, Andrew Brill shares the most compelling insights from our expert guests. From the state of the federal budget to why credit card rates aren't regulated, EJ Antoni dives into key fiscal challenges. Michael Howell explores the economic slowdown in China and rising U.S. debt levels, while Noelle Acheson reflects on how much influence politicians really have over the economy. Vincent Deluard rounds out the analysis by breaking down the Fed's recent rate cut and its potential market and economic implications. Investment Concerns? Get a free portfolio review with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.wealthion.com/free Connect with us online: Website: https://www.wealthion.com X: https://www.x.com/wealthion Instagram: / wealthionofficial LinkedIn: / wealthion #Fed #Liquidity #Bitcoin #Gold #Deficit #Wealthion #MichaelHowell Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Immediately after the Fed announced its 50 bps interest rate cut, Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro at StoneX, joined Maggie Lake for a live broadcast to discuss its impact on financial markets and the economy. If you missed Wealthion's special broadcast, now is the time to catch up on Vincent's expert insights and learn what this rate cut by the Fed means for investors. Investment Concerns? Get a free portfolio review with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.wealthion.com/free Connect with us online: Website: https://www.wealthion.com X: https://www.x.com/wealthion Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/wealthionofficial/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/wealthion/ #FedRateDecision #FedAnnouncement #Fed #Live #Macro #Markets #FinancialNews #VincentDeluard #MaggieLake #Macro #Wealthion Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Is the Federal Reserve's shift in focus setting the stage for a major liquidity increase? Renowned global liquidity expert Michael Howell, Founder and CEO of CrossBorder Capital, joins James Connor to discuss the Fed's economic concerns, its upcoming policy pivot, and the resulting boost in global liquidity, asset prices, and inflation. He also dives into liquidity trends from central banks worldwide, the challenges of rising U.S. debt, strategies for navigating an era of sustained inflation, and much more. Don't miss this timely discussion, part of Wealthion's special coverage of the Fed's Open Market Committee this week. Investment Concerns? Get a free portfolio review with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.wealthion.com/free Hard Assets Alliance - The Best Way to Invest in Gold and Silver - https://www.hardassetsalliance.com/?aff=WTH Join Wealthion's LIVE YouTube and X coverage of the Fed with Vincent Deluard and Maggie Lake! Today, September 18, at 2 pm ET! Chapters: 02:09 - What is Liquidity and Why It Matters 03:27 - The Importance of Global Liquidity Monitoring 06:57 - Analyzing China's Economic Slowdown 12:40 - Federal Reserve's Policy Shift and Market Implications 19:52 - Fed Concerns, U.S. Debt and Future Risks 26:04 - Kicking The Debt Can Down The Road 33:52 - What Does This Shift in Liquidity Mean for Inflation 37:45 - Markets Outlook: S&P 500 and Valuations, Gold, Bitcoin 44:14 - Potential Black Swans: Refinancing Crisis Ahead? Connect with us online: Website: https://www.wealthion.com X: https://www.x.com/wealthion Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/wealthionofficial/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/wealthion/ #GlobalLiquidity #Economy #Macro #Inflation #Gold #Finance #CentralBanks #Fed #DebtCrisis #GlobalLiquidity #Bitcoin #LiquidityTrends #MichaelHowell #MonetaryPolicy #FOMC #Wealthion #Wealth Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
E.J. Antoni, PhD, Economist and Research Fellow at the Heritage Foundation, explains why the Fed's plan to cut interest rates won't solve deeper economic problems—such as runaway government borrowing and record deficits—that threaten American financial stability. He uncovers how the Fed is at loggerheads with the US Treasury, creating a dangerous conflict between monetary and fiscal policy that exacerbates inflation, unemployment, and high credit costs, impacting American households. E.J. joins Wealthion's Andrew Brill as part of our special coverage of the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee this week, highlighting the urgent need for fiscal restraint and coordinated reform to align monetary and fiscal policy and prevent a profound economic crisis. Investment Concerns? Get a free portfolio review with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.wealthion.com/free Don't miss Wealthion's LIVE coverage of the Fed with Vincent Deluard and Maggie Lake! Tomorrow, September 18, at 2 pm ET. Chapters: 00:51 - Federal Budget Concerns 03:11 - Economic Reality vs. Official Data For The Average American 05:45 - U.S. Credit Card Debt: A Hidden Crisis 08:43 - Will Fed Rate Cuts Help or Hurt? 18:08 - Fed vs. Treasury: A Policy Clash 23:02 - EJ's Fed Policy Outlook 26:14 - The Real Employment Situation 32:33 - How to Tackle Inflation 46:15 - Energy Policy: Key to Recovery? 48:49 - Why Good Policies Aren't Adopted Connect with us online: Website: https://www.wealthion.com X: https://www.x.com/wealthion Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/wealthionofficial/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/wealthion/ #Wealthion #Wealth #Economy #Fed #FederalReserve #InterestRates #FiscalPolicy #Inflation #GovernmentDebt #MonetaryPolicy #USEconomy #EJAntoni #MarketAnalysis #FOMC Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Michael Cannivet, CFA, is the founder, president, and chief investment officer of Silverlight Asset Management, LLC, an RIA based in Newport Beach, California, that serves high-net-worth private clients. Mr. Cannivet has been a Forbes contributor since 2017 and Forbes Books recently published his latest book, The Four Minute Retirement Plan: Preserve Your Past, Secure Your Future, Live For Today. The book debuted as the #1 new release for the money management category and is endorsed by several top industry practitioners, including Ken Fisher, Joel Greenblatt, Keith McCullough, and Vincent Deluard. Listen to this insightful RIA episode with Michael Cannivet about investing insights. Here is what to expect on this week's show: - How it's important to invest by focusing on supply and demand dynamics and investor psychology. - Why active investing and a tailored, original approach is the key to outperforming market prices. - How Silver Light Asset Management crafts personalized narratives that align with their client's core values and life goals - How there are four essential components to retirement planning: savings, investing, lifestyle, and legacy. - Why risk management is the cornerstone of successful investing, especially during volatile market conditions. Connect with Michael: Links Mentioned: silverlight.us Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Kevin and Patrick welcome back to the show, Vincent DeLuard from Stone X. They discuss the French election and reveals his two best trades to take advantage of the recent political volatility. Then we have a surprise second guest, with a return of Kuppy's corner that you don't want to miss. Follow Vincent on X: @VincentDeluard Follow Kuppy on X: @HKuppy *Got questions for Kevin and Patrick? Submit your questions to: nostupidquestions@markethuddle.com Sign up for a FREE 14-day trial at Big Picture Trading: https://bit.ly/46Ul2FD Subscribe to Patrick's Youtube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@Patrick_Ceresna Visit our merch store!!! https://www.themarkethuddlemerch.com/ To receive our emails with the charts and links each week, please register at: https://markethuddle.com/
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Follow Vincent Deluard on Twitter https://twitter.com/VincentDeluard Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (12:50) Does China Face A Choice Between Deflation And Devaluation? (19:38) VanEck Ad (20:39) The Long-Term Debt Cycle (29:30) How To Invest For A Recession Free Future (34:40) Lags In Healthcare And Shelter Measures of Inflation (42:03) The Fed (55:20) Age Of Secularly High Inflation (01:04:20) The Japanese Yen (01:17:20) Asset Allocation Within Equity Space __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
This week Vincent Deluard returns to the show to discuss the most important topic in markets today... inflation. After joining the show in February 2023, Vincent was an early inflationista making the case that inflation would not return to 2%. Well, one year later that call has been correct as inflation remains elevated above the Fed's 2% target. The question is, what happens next? Enjoy! -- Follow Vincent: https://twitter.com/VincentDeluard Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- (00:00) Introduction (02:17) The Rise Of Secular Inflation (10:50) Mantra Ad (11:56) Geopolitical Risk, Oil & The Inflation Feedback Loop (16:43) The U.S Dollar Is Still The Best Safe Haven (21:21) The Rise Of Fiscal Dominance: Gradually, Then Suddenly (26:08) The Inflation Spiral (35:39) Permissionless Ad (36:17) A Recession Free Future (42:18) Oil -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
We host Vincent Deluard for a discussion on inflation trends in the US, Europe but also in China and Lat-Am. Will the Chinese deflation mainly impact EM, while the shrinking labour force of the West will lead to a renewed inflation pressure in Europe- and the US? Remember to use Geo30 to get 30% off your subscription. It is a limited offer. Find out more at www.stenoresearch.com/subscribe Host: Andreas Steno & Mikkel RosenvoldFind our Crypto coverage here -https://stenoresearch.com/category/crypto-moves/FREE macro newsletter - https://stenoresearch.com/free/If you enjoy our content, Please subscribe to our Youtube Channel:➡️ https://tinyurl.com/23hp3vahCHAPTERS -00:00. Introduction02:46. Sour Equities?09:32. Iranian Attack15:20. Interview - Vincent Deluard39:48. "Sticky-er" Inflation?43:28. Portfolio News#economics #trading #interestrate#useconomy#macroeconomy#cryptocurrency #crypto #mortgageinterestrates#usgdp#economicrecession#usrecession#softlanding #redsea #podcast #economy #banking#joebiden #election#trump
On this weeks Huddle +, Kevin welcomes back to the show, Macro Strategist for StoneX Group, Vincent Deluard. Kev and Vincent have a great discussion about the markets, the FED and the overall outlook on inflation and deflation. *Got questions for Kevin and Patrick? Submit your questions to: nostupidquestions@markethuddle.com Visit our merch store!!! https://www.themarkethuddlemerch.com/ To receive our emails with the charts and links each week, please register at: https://markethuddle.com/
U.S. stocks are mixed as investors take a “wait and see” approach ahead of economic data later this week. Harry Melandri, advisor at MI2 Partners, is joined by Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro at StoneX, is here to break down the latest developments in risk assets and the global economy. We'll also take a look at Vincent's Macro Roadmap from the Taylor Swift Hangover to the potential QE he sees by 2026. Join over 5,000 attendees for the largest AI event in Asia at SuperAI Singapore, February 28-29, 2024. Edward Snowden, Benedict Evans, Balaji Srinivasan, and over 150 others will hit the stage — joining the industry's most influential minds to explore and unveil the next wave of transformative AI technologies. Go to www.realvision.com/superai for 20% off tickets and enter the code ‘REALVISION'. Unlock the potential to showcase your brand to our global audience. Contact us at partnerships@realvision.com for advertising inquiries. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
In fall 2022 when most economists were anticipating an imminent recession, Vincent Deluard made the bold call that several forms of “stealth stimulus” would prevent the U.S. from entering a recession in 2023. Now Deluard, director of Global Macro at StoneX, returns to Forward Guidance to share why these hidden forms of government stimulus (social security cost of living adjustment, tax-bracket adjustment, etc.) will be less of a factor in 2024, and as such, Deluard expects the U.S. economy to slow. Deluard reaffirms his long-term inflationary view and explains why he is bearish U.S. stocks, and prefers international stocks. Filmed on August 21, 2023. Today's interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm. Follow Vincent Deluard on Twitter https://twitter.com/VincentDeluard Follow StoneX on Twitter https://twitter.com/stoneX_official Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:47) The "Stealth Stimulus" Is Over (13:15) How Much Tightening Effect Of Higher Rates Has Already Been Felt? (18:55) Making Sense of 2023 Stock Market Rally (20:59) The Second Wave Of Inflation (26:40) Is Central Banks' Inflation Target Unnecessary? (41:13) Vincent's Bull Case For Non-U.S. Assets (46:49) China (49:52) Europe (53:29) Japan (55:35) Sector Analysis: Healthcare, Tech, Energy, Financials (59:14) Bearish View On U.S. Stocks (01:02:25) Bank Outlook After Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
In this episode of MH+, Kevin is joined by guest favourite Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy from StoneX Group Inc. Kevin and Vincent take a dive into inflation and the upcoming challenges the economy may face. *Got questions for Kevin and Patrick? Submit your questions to: nostupidquestions@markethuddle.com Visit our merch store!!! https://www.themarkethuddlemerch.com/ To receive our emails with the charts and links each week, please register at: https://markethuddle.com/
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DoubleLine Deputy CIO Jeffrey Sherman and Portfolio Manager Samuel Lau welcome StoneX Director of Macro Global Strategy Vincent Deluard to The Sherman Show. Mr. Deluard begins the episode by sharing how his passion for collecting actual paper money and coins ... Read More
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Interview recorded - 24th of April, 2023On todays episode of the WTFinance podcast I have the pleasure of speaking with Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX Group. During our conversation we spoke about why inflation could be structurally higher for the long term, the impact on cheap capital, cheap goods and cheap labour and how this will effect asset prices moving forward. I hope you enjoy!0:00 - Introduction0:50 - What has been happening in markets?2:35 - What is the path of monetary policy?5:15 - Will we see inflation in the future?11:20 - What caused lower inflation over the past 40 years and why did it shift?17:20 - Cheap capital, cheap goods & cheap labour20:40 - Increase of product prices?23:05 - Can the US continue with current deficit?26:40 - Will Europe have a different inflation target?29:45 - What impact will the new trend have on assets?32:45 - Commodity Supercycle to re-emerge?35:55 - Tech to struggle, government back industries to rise?38:00 - One message to take awayVincent is the global macro strategist for StoneX, where he authors weekly research reports on global macro trends, flows, European capital markets and quantitative topics. Vincent advises large pension funds and other institutional investors on asset allocation and risk management.Prior to joining StoneX., Vincent served as the Europe Strategist for Ned Davis Research Group. In November 2013, Vincent was awarded the Euromoney Padraic Fallon Editorial Prize for his in-depth study of the investment opportunities offered by the European debt crisis. Prior to joining Ned Davis Research, Vincent was the Executive Vice President of TrimTabs Investment Research, where he headed the firm's quantitative research. Vincent designed and traded large and profitable strategies based on supply and demand indicators for top-tier hedge funds. Vincent is frequently quoted in the Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, and Barron's. Vincent taught Ethical and Professional Standards and Private Wealth Management for the CFA Society of San Francisco.Vincent is an adjunct professor of finance for Saint Mary's College Master's in Finance and taught at Golden Gate University's Executive MBA program. Vincent is a CFA charterholder. He completed a dual master's degree at Sciences-Po Paris (Cum Laude) and Columbia University and speaks English, French, Italian, and Indonesian.Vincent Deluard - Newsletter - https://marketintel.intlfcstone.com/MIPublic/LandingTwitter - https://twitter.com/VincentDeluardLinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-deluard-cfa-90950b1WTFinance - Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfniTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas
Prices stay high as investors wonder whether recession will be avoided at a cost. Maggie Lake is joined by Vincent Deluard, director of global macro strategy at StoneX Group, to discuss this morning's key inflation data, stress on the banking system, and why infrastructure and chips are 2 reasons the U.S. will not see a recession in 2023. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
This week we have the pleasure of welcoming back Vincent Deluard from StoneX. We have a terrific discussion about why the economy might not be as bad as consensus believes, the best way to play the delayed economic weakness, and we find out if Vincent knows his home region of Burgundy better than his adopted city of San Francisco. *Got questions for Kevin and Patrick? Submit your questions to: nostupidquestions@markethuddle.com Visit our merch store!!! https://www.themarkethuddlemerch.com/ To receive our emails with the charts and links each week, please register at: https://markethuddle.com/
BIO: Vincent Deluard is the global macro strategist for StoneX Group Inc., where he authors weekly commentary on global macro topics and advises pension funds on asset allocation.STORY: Vincent decided to overleverage an ETF during the financial crisis of 2008 in the belief that the economy would bounce back. Interest rates, however, fell, and he lost 70% of his investment.LEARNING: Take into account falling yields and falling inflation. Understand the difference between a trade and an investment. “The more volatile something is, the more likely it will lose its value over time.”Vincent Deluard Guest profileVincent Deluard is the global macro strategist for StoneX Group Inc., where he authors weekly commentary on global macro topics and advises pension funds on asset allocation. Prior to joining StoneX Group Inc., Vincent served as Europe strategist for Ned Davis Research, where he created the firm's Europe product. Before that, Vincent was executive vice president for TrimTabs Investment, where he headed the firm's quantitative research. Vincent is frequently quoted in the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal, and Barron's and is regularly on Bloomberg TV and CNBC.Worst investment everDuring the great financial crisis of 2008, Vincent had just started working and decided to get into investing. The interest rates at the time were stable at 5%—which seemed like a good number to Vincent.Then in a matter of a week, the interest rates went all the way to 2.5% in the wake of the Lehman Brothers panic. As the interest rates went down, bond prices went up. Vincent believed the situation would reverse, so he leveraged an ETF that gave him access to shorting the US Treasury prices. This worked at the beginning.The economy came out of recession, the yield curve steeped, and interest rates increased. Vincent thought they would go higher and back up to the 5% range, so he didn't sell his position. Unfortunately, the interest rates didn't go back up, and Vincent lost about 70% of his investment.Lessons learnedThe more volatile something is, the more likely it will lose its value over time.Take into account falling yields and falling inflation.Understand the difference between a trade and an investment.Andrew's takeawaysAvoid leverage.Be careful about treasuries and Forex. Because basically, you're fighting against the Fed, banks with a massive balance sheet, and a limited buyer who can move in any direction.Don't overestimate the genius of the Fed and other bureaucrats.Actionable adviceMake your mistakes when you're young, and learn from them to become a prudent investor.Vincent's recommendationsVincent recommends signing up for his weekly reports, in which he addresses risks that people may have missed and other overlooked things. Sign up on his pinned tweet to get a two-month free trial.No.1 goal for the next 12 monthsVincent's number one goal for the next 12 months is to do what matters to him and live a more meaningful life.Parting words “This was fun, and I like your humility. I think we all need some of that.”Vincent...
On today's episode of On the Margin, Vincent Deluard Director of Global Macro at StoneX joins the show for a discussion on the rise of secular inflation. Being early to the inflation call, Vincent walks through the dynamics that allowed him to spot the rise of inflation, and how it will impact the next decade and beyond. We then dive into the role of inflation during a fourth turning and how this could shift the balance back to labor, contrary to the rise of capital during "the great disinflation. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Vincent: https://twitter.com/VincentDeluard Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Referenced In The Show: Clip: Sir James Goldsmith Presciently Explaining Globalization in 1994: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKe38mVpHgk -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:55) Why Is 2023 Data So Strong? (05:28) Turns Out... Europe Didn't Freeze (10:19) Liquidity vs The Economy (13:00) Blockworks Research (14:33) Becoming An Early Inflationista (21:47) Inflation Is The Solution (30:46) The End of Secular Disinflation (35:33) Permissionless 2023 (36:17) The Fourth Turning (40:53) The Key To Inflation Is Trust (44:19) Preparing For The Coming Decade Amid Secular Inflation -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Federal Reserve board members continue to call for more rate hikes, a day after chairman Jay Powell reaffirmed the central bank's commitment to higher interest rates. Markets are eager to be free of the shackles of inflationary forces and quantitative tightening, but Vincent Deluard of the StoneX Group sees the bright side of this bear market. He joins Ash Bennington to explore how this painful macro regime shift could lead to a better tomorrow. Plus, we'll hear a clip from Looking for the Upside, where the author Dror Poleg discusses the evolving real estate market in the era of remote work. Watch that entire interview here: https://rvtv.io/3I8OL4A Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Our guest this week was Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at Stonex. StoneX (formerly known as INTL FCStone) is an institutional-grade financial services network that connects companies, organizations, traders and investors to the global markets ecosystem through a unique blend of digital platforms, end-to-end clearing and execution services, high-touch service and deep expertise. Our conversation covered: Comparing the narratives from other allocators Is the Fed Pivot here now and will there be a soft landing The rise of structural inflation since before COVID and where will it settle Why the Fed is attempting to show that it “tried” Underestimating the strength of the economy Accepting that Growth, Austerity or Inflation are the solutions How China saved the Fed Bubbles of Bubbles and Ponzi schemes vs fundamentally driven growth Shifting from monetary to fiscal dominance The effects of automation on labor requirements Irrational American optimism vs European pessimism Political influences on monetary policy and the challenges of “onshoring” Adjusting the price, not the quantity The effects of the rates of change The possibility of equities and bonds returning to normal correlations Pension funds, interest rates, central banks and commodities The importance of diversified portfolios with sophisticated hedges And much more This is “ReSolve's Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc. *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Expectations that inflation will normalize to near 2% in the near term will “end in tears,” according to Vincent Deluard, the director of global macro strategy at brokerage StoneX Financial. He contends growth in consumer prices will remain closer to 5% for about a decade. Deluard joined the latest episode of the What Goes Up podcast to explain why he believes inflation will remain stubbornly high and what that would mean for markets. He also reveals what he calls “Silicon Valley's Seven Deadly Sins.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Recorded November 17, 2022. Please consider donating to World Central Kitchen Listeners have been asking how they can show their appreciation for the talks George is hosting. Top of mind right now are the millions suffering as a result of the tragedy in Ukraine. World Central Kitchen has joined the fight to provide humanitarian aid to those in need of fresh food and meals within Ukraine and in bordering countries. Please consider donating generously to World Central Kitchen on behalf of No Bull - Market Talk with George Noble. Visit https://noble-impact.com/ for the Noble-Impact Capital corporate website. Visit https://www.noble-funds.com/ for information on the NOPE ETF. Follow Vincent Deluard on Twitter Follow George Noble on Twitter & YouTube
This week we welcome to the show,Vincent Deluard from StoneX. Vincent comes back to the show to give us an update on inflation. Hint: he doesn't see it coming down as much as you might think. More importantly, Vincent outlines his new trade to take advantage of this persistent inflation. ⭐️Visit our merch store!!! 👉https://www.markethuddlemerch.com/ ⭐️ *Got questions for Kevin and Patrick? Submit your questions to: 📩nostupidquestions@markethuddle.com To receive our emails with the charts and links each week, please register at: https://markethuddle.com/
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve announced a fourth consecutive 75-basis-point rate hike, and Chair Jerome Powell aggressively pushed back against any thoughts of a “pivot.” Today, the Bank of England followed the Fed with its own 75-basis-point rate hike, even as it warned what would be the country's longest recession ever has already started and will continue through 2023 and into 2024. The dollar is strengthening against the pound again, though the prospect of a “soft landing” stateside seems to be growing more and more remote. “The world is confronted with many new threats,” writes Vincent Deluard in his most recent newsletter, “and the next twelve months feel abnormally uncertain.” Deluard, the Director of Global Macro Strategy at Stone X, joins Ash Bennington for today's Daily Briefing to talk about recent moves by central banks, his 2023 outlook, and his “Holy Trinity” picks for this market. We also hear from Andreas Steno Larsen about the natural gas supply situation in Europe this heating season and, more importantly, next winter. Watch the complete conversation between Andreas Steno Larsen and Maggie Lake here: https://rvtv.io/3DCRpvQ. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Vincent Deluard, head of global macro at StoneX, has been extremely prescient in calling for persistently high inflation. Vincent returns to Forward Guidance to explain why he thinks that inflation will remain close to the 5-7% range over the next decade, due to inflationary demographics, the reversal of globalization, regular energy crises, and declining immigration. Deluard proposes a “holy Trinity” portfolio consisting of energy companies (which benefit from inflation), banks (which benefit from rising rates), and healthcare companies (which perform during a recession and which offer secular growth exposure at much cheaper valuations to the technology sector). Filmed on October 25, 2022. __ Follow Vincent Deluard on Twitter https://twitter.com/VincentDeluard Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj __ Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can't-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (08:49) How Aging Demographics Can Actually Be Inflationary (17:34) The Fed's 2% Inflation Target Is Transitory (27:22) Wealth Inequality & Financial Repression (39:29) Stocks Will Perform Poorly (46:38) Would A Fed Pivot Really Be Bullish For Stocks? (51:15) Why Won't The Recession Be Deep? (57:20) The Holy Trinity Portfolio ($XLV, $XLE, and $XLF) (01:02:51) Energy (01:11:09) Chaos In The Sovereign Bond Market (01:14:44) Brazil and Gold (01:16:40) Favorite Books Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. ___
Why is inflation so sticky, how long is it going to last, and where should we invest? Show host Ed D'Agostino talks with Vincent Deluard, director of global macro at StoneX, about the trifecta of trends that caused the current inflationary environment... why an economic slowdown won't cure inflation... what to expect for 2023... and the three crisis-proof sectors every investor should own today. For more of Vincent's excellent research, click here for a free trial to his StoneX reports. You can also follow him on Twitter. Don't miss this week's episode of Global Macro Update—listen now!
What if the Fed can't stop inflation?Check The Lead-Lag Report on your favorite social networks.Twitter: https://twitter.com/leadlagreportYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/theleadlagreportFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/leadlagreportInstagram: https://instagram.com/leadlagreport Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at www.leadlagreport.com and use promo code PODCAST30 for 2 weeks free and 30% off. Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions.See disclosures for The Lead-Lag Report here: The Lead-Lag Report (leadlagreport.com)Queens On A RollThis podcast was created to educate & inspire people about the ably different...Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify The Baroo: A podcast for dogs and their peopleDogs make the best companions for humans. The Baroo aims to help make humans better...Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify
Housing is local until it's not.Check The Lead-Lag Report on your favorite social networks.Twitter: https://twitter.com/leadlagreportYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/theleadlagreportFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/leadlagreportInstagram: https://instagram.com/leadlagreport Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at www.leadlagreport.com and use promo code PODCAST30 for 2 weeks free and 30% off. Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions.See disclosures for The Lead-Lag Report here: The Lead-Lag Report (leadlagreport.com)Queens On A RollThis podcast was created to educate & inspire people about the ably different...Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify The Baroo: A podcast for dogs and their peopleDogs make the best companions for humans. The Baroo aims to help make humans better...Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify
On today's episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Vincent Deluard Director of global macro at StoneX. Vincent outlines the new regime for inflation before taking a deep dive into the labor market and how structural shifts such as demographics & de-globalization are beginning to cause tectonic shifts for global markets. Finally, despite all the headwinds Europe faces, Vincent shares the bull case for a certain sector of the European economy by outlining his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, they provide free currency subaccounts and competitive interest rates on deposits in local currencies. Learn more at https://goto.saxo/macrofx -- DAS Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Danielle DiMartino Booth, Mike Green, Jurrien Timmer, Brent Johnson. Visit digitalassetsummit.io and sign up -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Truss Drafts £130 Billion Plan to Freeze UK Energy Bills: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-05/truss-earmarks-130-billion-to-keep-uk-energy-bills-below-2-000 Asset Purchase Facility: Gilt Sales – Market Notice 1 September 2022: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/markets/market-notices/2022/september/apf-gilt-sales-market-notice-1-september-2022 Putin vs Europe - The Long War: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/the-long-war#details -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:36) Europe's Reaction to the Energy Crisis (05:17) European Banks Excess Liquidity (06:26) Pricing A Systemic Risk In Europe (09:02) The BoE Secretly Announces Yield Curve Control (11:32) Feature Interview: Vincent Deluard (12:46) The Inflation Regime Shift (15:32) The Labor Market (21:00) Deglobalization Marks A Shift In The Labor Market (31:07) Long Duration in US Markets (35:01) The US Dollar Wrecking Ball (38:09) Vincent's Actionable Trade Idea (43:29) Post Interview: Final Thoughts (45:50) A "Techtonic" Shifts in Global Markets (51:41) Vincent's Actionable Trade Idea Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Time for trash stocks to rally hard?Check The Lead-Lag Report on your favorite social networks.Twitter: https://twitter.com/leadlagreport YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/theleadlagreport Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/leadlagreport Instagram: https://instagram.com/leadlagreport Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at www.leadlagreport.com and use promo code PODCAST30 for 2 weeks free and 30% off. Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. See disclosures for The Lead-Lag Report here: The Lead-Lag Report (leadlagreport.com)The Personal Finance PodcastSubscribe now and Master Your Money in Less than 30 Minutes Per Week! Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify
U.S. equity indexes followed Bitcoin lower at Monday's open, trading well in the red as investors continued to price in Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's short but stern message that the central bank will tighten monetary policy until inflation is beaten. The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note surged to a 15-year high, and we're now witnessing the deepest inversion between the two-year and the 10-year U.S. Treasury note in more than 20 years. And September – historically the worst month for stocks – is just around the corner. “Tightening should only worsen the potential for a major breakage in credit,” notes Mark Ritchie II, “and the Fed's refusal to pivot in the short run should produce some more potential fireworks to the downside.” Ritchie II, a managing partner at RTM Capital, joins Real Vision's Maggie Lake to talk about the epic battle brewing between bears and bulls and whether U.S. stocks are going to make another run at the lows. We also hear from Vincent Deluard about the energy crisis in Europe. Watch the full conversation featuring Vincent Deluard and Maggie Lake here: https://rvtv.io/3PX0mEz. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In the spring of 2020, the idea that the world would see persistent inflation was laughed at. No one is laughing now. Vincent Deluard, head of global macro at StoneX, is one of the few macro analysts who foresaw this inflationary spiral to its full extent. He returns to Forward Guidance to explain how in the next leg of this inflationary saga, corporate profits will plummet as unemployment remains low and inflation fails to return to normal levels. Deluard shares several trade ideas and argues that the bear market has only just begun. -- Follow Vincent Deluard on Twitter https://twitter.com/VincentDeluard Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- (00:00) Introduction (04:41) Reflecting On Inflation Projections (19:35) The Reverse Wealth Effect (24:05) Attributing Inflation As The Cause of Asset Prices Deflating (29:20) Looking at Economic Trends (35:02) Bit.com Ad (35:32) Companies Investors Should Take Caution (40:10) Financing Equity via IPOs and Specs (42:50) Disruptions Caused By Millennial Lifestyle Companies (46:50) Zombie Companies (48:45) The Big Tech Companies (53:17) Outlook on Inflation Over the Next Year (59:00) Yields and the Eurocurve (1:05:40) The Financial System Driving Behaviors (1:09:00) Inflation In Other Countries (1:14:20) The Five Inflation Trades (1:20:30) Japan And the BOJ (1:24:23) Vincent's Psychological Advice for the Market (1:30:04) The Grasshopper Analogy -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
In this week's episode, Jeff talks with StoneX's Global Macro Strategist, Vincent Deluard @VincentDeluard, who authors weekly research reports on global macro trends, asset flows, European capital markets, and quantitative topics. We catch him literally right after the Fed hikes 75bps, and learn quickly that Lagarde was an accomplished synchronized swimmer and that having a French accent sure helps selling “French” wine in China. But what about that Fed hike? Are we saved? Are we doomed? Who's got the cleanest dirty shirt in the global economy this time around? In this fun chat, Vincent talks about inflation, deflation, stagflation, and even some greenflation….but don't insult him by saying he's an economist. He's a researcher, making calls and taking stands. We dig into his early inflation call, what different Inflation hedges look like, his unhappiness with Silver, commodity supercycles, the ticking corporate debt timebomb, a potential short squeeze to end all short squeezes in the Japanese Yen, and so much more! Vincent also gives us a hot take...that the real pain is yet to come?! Yikes..except he does it all with a smile and charm. SEND IT! Chapters: 00:00-01:50 = Intro 01:51-09:32 = Le Tour de France, selling fake French wine & a Live Fed report breakdown 09:33-22:20 = Inflation is here to stay, Stagflation, Deflation & why Japan is a sample size of 1 22:21-35:06 = You're not Long a Fed Put, the Fed's Short Gas Price Calls 35:07-50:29 = Inflation Hedges, Energy as the best driver & Commodity super cycles 50:30-57:43 = Companies aren't going to be able to cover the debt service, joining Toxic blobs 57:44-01:17:23 = World Tour: Japan, Swiss Milkshakes, Norway, China, Brazil - & Pick your fighter 01:17:24-01:27:47 = Hottest Take: Real pain & a Second Leg Down Follow along with Vincent on Twitter @VincentDeluard and check out StoneX.com for more information. Also, don't forget to check out Vincent's Global Macro reports and sign up for a free trial! Don't forget to subscribe to The Derivative, and follow us on Twitter at @rcmAlts and our host Jeff at @AttainCap2, or LinkedIn , and Facebook, and sign-up for our blog digest. Disclaimer: This podcast is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as legal, business, or tax advice. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of RCM Alternatives, their affiliates, or companies featured. Due to industry regulations, participants on this podcast are instructed not to make specific trade recommendations, nor reference past or potential profits. And listeners are reminded that managed futures, commodity trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. For more information, visit www.rcmalternatives.com/disclaimer
Vincent Deluard is the Global Macro Strategist for StoneX, where he advises institutional investors on asset allocation and risk management. He joined us for an awesome conversation that covered topics including: His early life in France - expectations for public service but ‘saved' by a scholarship to study abroad Bitten by the ‘quantitative bug' from the very start of his career How his macro framework evolved Inflection points in the mega trends that have endured for the last 40 years Concerns with inflation pre-date the pandemic How COVID ‘shrank' time Sample of one – why Japanese stagnation should not be extrapolated as the path for other countries The demographic collapse in East Asia Views on MMT – analytical tool more than policy framework The ‘incestuous' relationship between central banks and their governments' treasuries – from the left pocket to the right The ‘fairy tale land' of the Fed's economic projections Inflation as the last painful path to ‘clean up' excess debt in the system US, Europe, China, and Japan – immigration dynamics and long-term prosperity Analogues with the post-WW2 and 1970s inflationary periods and why this time is likely different The risk that inflation continues to accelerate – the expectation channel The ‘kink' in the Eurodollar curve Are there viable alternatives to the US dollar? How investors should rethink and broaden their asset allocation approach And much more This is “ReSolve's Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Monday, “Inflation is much too high,” noting that the Fed would continue to raise interest rates until inflation is under control. And St. Louis Fed President James Bullard reiterated his view that U.S. monetary policy must be tightened quickly to put a stop to upward pressure on inflation that's already too high, repeating his call for a fed funds target rate above 3.0% this year. Meanwhile, a selloff in government bonds intensified on concerns that rising inflation will drag the nation's economy into recession. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note hit its highest level since 2019, as the Treasury market nears the end of what could be its worst quarter since 1973. Altogether, it looks like the hiking cycle could be more aggressive than previously forecast. But what if we have inflation all wrong? Could it be, suggests Vincent Deluard, director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX Group, that in a service-oriented economy “inflation” is just another word for “growth”? Deluard joins Warren Pies to discuss inflation and growth, monetary policy, and the likelihood of an inverted yield curve in the very near future. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3qrBE5m Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week, Patrick Ceresna and Kevin Muir welcome back Vincent Deluard from Stone X Financial to the show. They have a fascinating discussion about investing in this new inflationary environment, how you should position your portfolio and Vincent even hits us with a Byron Wien surprise that is worthy of his name. *DISCLAIMER* Download Vincent's Reports
We're heading for an inflationary decade that will change society as we know it. That's according to Vincent Deluard, director of global macro research at StoneX Group Inc, who argues inflation is not transitory as many insist but rather a feature of the new economic landscape that investors must prepare for. On the seventh episode of Forward Guidance, Deluard gives Blockworks' Jack Farley 5 reasons why high prices are no longer the cure to high prices, including today's tight labor market, the flurry of post-Covid spending packages, and China's withdrawal from its role as an exporter of deflation. Deluard argues that inflation itself is inflationary; while soaring commodity prices, supply chains bottlenecks, and excessive stimulus are undoubtedly the immediate drivers of the current spike in prices, the fundamental driver of secular inflation is an insidious increase in our collective preference for the present.
In this episode, Bernard Sharfman and Vincent Deluard discuss their article, "How Discretionary Decision-Making Has Created Performance and Legal Disclosure Issues for the S&P 500 Index." Bernard Sharfman is a Senior Corporate Governance Fellow at the RealClearFoundation, a member of the Journal of Corporation Law's editorial advisory board, and a former Visiting Assistant Professor of Law at the University of Maryland School of Law and the Case Western Reserve University School of Law. Vincent Deluard is the global macro strategist for StoneX, where he authors weekly research reports on global macro trends, flows, European capital markets and quantitative topics. Vincent advises large pension funds and other institutional investors on asset allocation and risk management. Sharfman is on Twitter at @s_sharfman and Deluard is on Twitter at @VincentDeluard.They discuss how the discretionary nature of the S&P 500's Index Committee creates legal and performance issues. In particular, they discuss how the exclusion of Tesla and dual-class share structures are examples of how this discretion poorly serves investors. They discuss potential proposed solutions, offer their own solutions, and conclude by discussing what investors, scholars, and policymakers should take away from their article. This episode was hosted by Luce Nguyen, who is on Twitter at @NguyenLuce. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.
Vincent Deluard, CFA is a Global Macro Strategist and Director at StoneX. He is a professor of finance at Saint Mary's College and a member of the CFA Society. Twitter: https://twitter.com/VincentDeluard Website: https://www.stonex.com/ ABOUT THE PODCAST Hi, I'm Tobias Carlisle. I've launched a new podcast called The Acquirers Podcast. The podcast is about finding undervalued stocks, deep value investing, hedge funds, activism, buyouts, and special situations. We uncover the tactics and strategies for finding good investments, managing risk, dealing with bad luck, and maximizing success. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://acquirersmultiple.com/podcast/ SEE OUR FREE DEEP VALUE STOCK SCREENER https://acquirersmultiple.com/screener/ FOLLOW TOBIAS Firm: https://acquirersfunds.com/ Website: https://acquirersmultiple.com/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/Greenbackd LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tobycarlisle Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/tobiascarlisle Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tobias_carlisle ABOUT TOBIAS CARLISLE Tobias Carlisle is the founder of The Acquirer's Multiple®, and Acquirers Funds®. He is best known as the author of the #1 new release in Amazon's Business and Finance The Acquirer's Multiple: How the Billionaire Contrarians of Deep Value Beat the Market, the Amazon best-sellers Deep Value: Why Activists Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations (2014) (https://amzn.to/2VwvAGF), Quantitative Value: A Practitioner's Guide to Automating Intelligent Investment and Eliminating Behavioral Errors (2012) (https://amzn.to/2SDDxrN), and Concentrated Investing: Strategies of the World's Greatest Concentrated Value Investors (2016) (https://amzn.to/2SEEjVn). He has extensive experience in investment management, bus
“Inflation hedges are still cheap…these will give you the protection that you need against the biggest risk in 2021, which is the full-on acceleration of inflation.” Looking at risk-off assets during equity sell-offs Vincent Deluard, CFA on hedging the rise of secular inflation.
Timothy Fiore, Chairman of the Manufacturing Business Survey from the Institute for Supply Management discusses the monthly Manufacturing ISM report. Main Street USA is opening back up. Jay DesMarteau, Head of Commercial Distribution at TD Bank discusses the health of small business as the country emerges from the pandemic. David Siemer, CEO of Wave Financial discusses cyptocurrency volatility, yield strategies, and the future for FCC approved crypto ETFs. Vincent Deluard, Global Macro Strategist at StoneX, discusses hyper-growth stocks, and the industries leading the way in the coming decade. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller.
Vincent Deluard, director of global macro strategy at the brokerage StoneX Group, discusses how Mexico and Canada may be primed to benefit from the continued reopening of the U.S. economy following the pandemic. Mentioned in this podcast: Did Capitalism Kill Inflation? Space Aged: Bottle of Wine from Space Station Could Sell for $1 Million
In this episode, Patrick Ceresna and Kevin Muir welcome Vincent Deluard from Stone X to the show. They have a … Continue ReadingInflation Obsession (guest: Vincent Deluard)
Vincent Deluard examines Tesla's (TSLA) market cap, in addition to market bubble conditions, and U.S. bonds and stock yields.
Vincent Deluard weighs in on Tesla (TSLA) joining the S&P 500 on December 21 while having a market cap of about $600B.
For the full audio interview, transcript, show notes and more visit: https://altassetallocation.com/ Vincent Deluard, CFA is the Director of Global Macro Strategy at Stonex. Vincent joins us to discuss the shortcomings of 60/40 Equity/Bond portfolio, the 8 horsemen of inflation and how to position an investors' portfolio accordingly. The 60/40 portfolio has been an industry standard for asset allocators for years, with bonds yielding near-zero and equities at all-time-highs, things may change for this 'gold standard' allocation. Things are changing. We talk about the growing wealth gap, the "boomer CPI" figure and it's associated inflation - a fascinating discussion on where we are now and what the world might look like in the not-so-distant future. Enjoy this conversation with Vincent Delaurd. --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/investinalts/support
The last 4 market bottoms:March 23, 2018December 24, 2018March 23, 2020September 23, 2020Notice the pattern? Vincent Deluard has been sleuthing through fund flows for an answer.
In episode #80, Patrick Ceresna and Kevin Muir welcome Vincent Deluard, a Global Macro Strategist from INTL-FCStone. Vincent talks Europe … Continue ReadingIs There A Path To Recovery? (guests: Vincent Deluard and Liam Vaughan)