Sharp China with Bill Bishop

On today's show Andrew and Bill take stock of the US-China trade framework in the wake of last week's negotiations in London. Topics include: US escalations that brought the PRC side back to the table, PRC rare earth leverage that forced a compromise but no additional export control concessions, and variables to watch as trade tensions continue. From there: A survey of the various implications for the PRC as Israel attacks Iran and Wang Yi condemns the violations of Iran's sovereignty. At the end: The FT reports on struggles in the PRC auto industry, the politics of factory closures, another compelling data point undermining Xi rumors, and a Wall Street Journal story about new chip workarounds for PRC firms.

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with a call between President Trump and Xi, two days of meetings between the U.S. and China in London, and an apparent effort from both sides to de-escalate. Topics include: Retracing steps of the past few weeks, clarity for the U.S. and others on the PRC's leverage over rare earths, the possibility of the U.S. easing tech export controls, and the lack of trust on both sides in the wake of the past few months. From there: The U.S. has concerns about a Chinese embassy in the UK, the New York Times surfaces a purported FSB document outlining various counterespionage anxieties related to the PRC, and Xi's daughter joins a dinner with Lukashenko. At the end: People's Daily publishes an interview with Ren Zhengfei, Xi continues his attempts to curb excess among party members, and Victor Wembanyama visits a Shaolin Monastery.

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with a series of escalatory policies from the U.S. and talk of a call between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump later this week. Topics include: The rare earth frustration on the American side, the PRC's use of leverage, the potential downsides for the PRC as the rest of the world grapples with shortages, and the maddening failures of the West to prepare for exactly this scenario. At the end: An update on TikTok, the death of Xu Qiliang and continued mystery at the top of the PLA, a week of rumors swirling around Xi, and two notes on the EV sector.

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with reports that next year's five-year plan will double down on the Made in China 2025 strategy. Topics include: The legacy and successes of Made in China 2025, ferocious domestic competition in industries like electric vehicles, and an aspect of self-reliance that continues to elude modern leadership. From there: A report that the EU is ready to work with the US on China policies of its own, why the EU and PRC have struggled to form an alliance, and why the detente between the US and China is looking increasingly fragile. At the end: The MSS warns of espionage, Czechia accuses the MSS of hacking its Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and an emailer has questions about Xi and his political rivals.

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the Commerce Department's guidance on Ascend Chips, caustic responses to that policy on the PRC side, citations to the "Geneva Consensus," and the news the U.S. will be partnering with Saudi Arabia and the UAE on AI investments in a move that may limit PRC influence in the region. From there: Reactions to a New York Times op-ed about divergent policy trajectories for the US and China, comments from Ding Xuexiang on accelerating technological self-reliance, and questions about the US retaining and recruiting global talent. At the end: Rogue communication devices are reportedly found in Chinese solar power inverters, and a word about diamonds.

On today's show Andrew and Bill gather on short notice with reactions to Monday's news of a deal between the U.S. and China to significantly reduce tariffs for ninety days, while establishing a formal dialogue mechanism to discuss trade and economic issues. Topics include: Why a pause made sense for both sides, Trump's reference to the PRC and its "non-monetary barriers," the wins and opportunities that the PRC may see after the past several days, and the risks to the U.S. side as the rest of the world processes the past six weeks of policy choices.

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the news that the US and PRC are sending representatives to Switzerland to discuss trade talks this weekend. Topics include: Why expectations should be set low, the week of signs that the PRC was willing to engage, questions about cooperating on fentanyl, and the latest measures to loosen monetary policy in Beijing. From there: An email about Chinese data spawns a conversation about increasing data opacity, and challenges for Westerners and the party alike. At the end: Thoughts on the PRC's relationship to Russia as Xi Jinping heads to Moscow, the consequences (or lack thereof) for the PRC's support for Russia's war in Ukraine, and reactions to a pair of CIA videos recruiting disaffected party members.

On today's show Andrew and Bill take stock of the trade war one month after “Liberation Day.” Topics include: Domestic messaging on “struggle” and external promises to never kneel down, the risks facing the PRC as US tariffs threaten to compound overcapacity controversies and invite heightened scrutiny around the world, Week 3 of speculation on whether the US and China are negotiating on trade, and why talk of a resolution and return to the March status quo seems increasingly unrealistic. At the end: The April Politburo meeting reflects both caution and confidence, a study session on AI spells bad news for Nvidia, thoughts on Apple's story in China as the company tries to relocate US iPhone assembly to India, and Netflix gets the last laugh 15 years after being rebuffed by PRC censors.

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with Tuesday's signals that the Trump administration may seek to deescalate its trade war, why Beijing may see it as confirmation that their patient approach is working, and questions about what's next as the Trump messaging on trade changes by the day. From there: The PRC warns countries about cooperating with the US, and why the apparent US flip-flopping likely hurts their cause with third-party countries. At the end: A dispatch from Yiwu, more on PRC messages to third-party countries, and a listener's note on Trump's caustic approach to Canada.

On today's show Andrew and Bill return to discuss the state of the trade war two weeks after “Liberation Day” and the imposition of a 145% tariff rate on PRC goods. Topics include: Reports of a Trump Admin strategy to isolate the PRC, daily talk of a deal with China from President Trump, himself, signals from the PRC side that they may be willing to negotiate, and the PRC cancels orders of Boeing planes. From there: A raft of news on Nvidia as the U.S. restricts the export of H20 chips to China, Jensen Huang visits Beijing for an appearance with He Lifeng, and questions for the future of Nvidia and U.S. chip policies more generally. At the end: China restricts the export of rare earths to the U.S., rare earths as a keystone to understanding broader U.S. supply chain challenges, "Red and Expert" anxiety 60 years later, and TikTok faces new uncertainty in the wake of the tariffs.

On today's show Andrew and Bill return to discuss the intensification of the US-China trade war, including tariffs of 104% beginning on Wednesday, the PRC's options to respond, how companies like Apple could be squeezed, and why this represents the lowest point for US-China relations in a very long time. Then: Exploring EU opportunities and challenges after Premier Li Qiang's call with EU President Ursula von der Leyen, the debunked report about South Korea and Japan cooperating with the PRC, and unpacking the risks and possibilities inherent to the course the US side has chosen over the past week. At the end: Reactions to the latest TikTok extension from President Trump, a report that Liu He's son is under investigation, and a new name for the gardening podcast that may be essential in the months to come.

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the China Development Forum, including China's messaging to foreign investors, revisiting the Mintz raids as five detained employees are finally released, no updates on a Xi-Trump meeting, and news in the EV space. From there: The US plans to revive shipbuilding capacity, the likely disruption if the US adopts the USTR recommendations to counter Chinese dominance, Michael Froman writes that China has remade the international system, and a few more thoughts on the CK Hutchison deal. At the end: Rumors swirl around He Weidong and others in the PLA, what the noise might signal, and news of a deep-sea cable cutter is accompanied by a reminder that China constructs and protects deep sea cable like no other.

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with Taiwanese President Lai Ching-Te designating the PRC a "foreign hostile force," the initial response from the PRC and potential responses to come, rumors surrounding CMC vice chairman He Weidong, and an email wondering about the defense of Taiwan as a core American interest. From there: Sources say Xi Jinping is "angered" by CK Hutchison's deal to sell its ports in Panama, and TikTok talks accelerate as Beijing remains silent on the issue and Oracle heads to Washington to pitch lawmakers on Project Texas 2.0. At the end: Trump says that Xi will visit "soon" but sources tell the FT otherwise, a question about Beijing's reaction to DOGE and Trump 2.0, a question on fentanyl, and a bit more on the memoir of a former Facebook exec.

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with takeaways from the Two Sessions, including good news for tech companies as the push for new quality productive forces continues, the rhetoric surrounding domestic consumption alongside modest stimulus measures so far, the NDRC's plan to mobilize 1 billion yuan to support the startup ecosystem, and more. From there: The PRC announces new tariffs on Canadian exports and state TV warns against Canada cooperating with the U.S. on tariffs, and dueling reports on a potential Trump-Xi meeting as communication remains frustrated between high level US and China leaders. At the end: Cuts to USAID provide a win to the PRC as China-watching NGOs go offline, a whistleblower highlights Facebook's failed attempts to enter China, and TikTok rumors continue to churn as the apparent deadline for a sale approaches in April.

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with Trump raising tariffs on the PRC by 10%, the PRC's response, and the phone call Xi-Trump phone call that was rumored a month ago but still hasn't happened. Then: What to watch for during Two Sessions week, Xi has always supported private enterprises, a response from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on fentanyl, and why the U.S. focusing on domestic enforcement only goes far. From there: A roundup of news on chips, including an investigation in Singapore, TSMC's investment in the United States, a Wall Street Journal report on Nvidia, and questions facing the Trump team as new policy takes shape. At the end: The New York Times reports on "plea leniency," FIFA won't play ball with the PRC, and a variety of Moutai thoughts as Kweichow Moutai struggles to find demand.

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin by parsing the White House's memorandum on an America First Investment Policy, President Trump's recent appointees, the latest news from the Commerce Department and BIS, and a proposal for lifting controls on chips and tightening controls on chipmaking equipment. From there: "Reverse Nixon" possibilities and structural realities that make it unlikely, document #1 and the party's priorities surrounding food security, a PRC fishing crew is detained for questioning after a Taiwan cable cutting incident, the significance of the PLA drills between Australia and New Zealand last week, and a word about lawfare and law firms.

On today's special crossover Sharp Tech/Sharp China episode, Ben Thompson and Bill Bishop discuss the private enterprise symposium and Xi Jinping's rapprochement with China's tech companies, and the connection between xAI and DeepSeek. Then, an extended debate on the chip ban, including its potential long-term consequences, and whether or not a course correction is possible. Finally, why the situation surround Taiwan is worrisome, and whether Trump is looking to make a deal.

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin by talking through a first round of US tariffs on PRC goods and responses from the PRC earlier this week. Topics include: The fentanyl allegations that served as the predicate for these tariffs, Chinese responses that highlight points of leverage should trade tensions escalate, next steps in negotiations, and the end of the de minimis loophole. From there: Secretary of State Marco Rubio tours Latin America, the PRC's investments in Panama, and questions for the future of the Panama Canal. At the end: The PRC announces an investigation into Google, a Bloomberg report suggests Apple's being investigated for its app store policies, Apple's growth in China plateaus, and a few more thoughts on DeepSeek as Congress reacts and BIS gets a new leader.

On today's show Andrew and Bill wish a Happy Lunar New Year to the audience and interrupt the holiday week in the PRC to share various reactions to a week of DeepSeek discussion in the U.S. Topics include: The DeepSeek origin story, OpenAI and distillation questions, DeepSeek's future in China after Liang Wenfeng's meeting with Li Qiang, how the U.S. government might process these developments, and a dizzying spectrum of reactions from all around the Internet.

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the fate of TikTok after a wild week of updates. Topics include: A ByteDance investor who says that TikTok may continue in the U.S. without a full divestiture, lessons for Beijing and Americans from the past few weeks, and why potential TikTok buyers might be wary of any deal structure that doesn't comply with the letter of federal law. Then: Week 1 of the Trump presidency provides some breathing room to both sides of the US-China tariff negotiations, why negotiations may not yield any structural relief to the US-China trade tensions, updates on the PRC economy, and why Beijing may be wary of a currency devaluation in the face of a new round of tariffs. At the end: Two updates on Taiwan, why the Taiwanese may want to choose better intermediaries to the U.S. government, and the absence of US-China tensions in Hollywood.

Andrew and Bill take to Substack Live on Sinocism to discuss the SCOTUS decision about TikTok and what may be next for the app in the US.

On today's show Bill and Andrew begin with multiple reports that Chinese officials have considered working with Elon Musk to find a resolution for TikTok in the U.S., while TikTok‘s users have flocked to Xiaohongshu and inspired a few more questions for the future. Then: Parsing Xi Jinping's speech in the first 2025 issue of Qiushi, why both the substance of his message and his audience heighten concerns, and reactions to a new fleet of barges in Guangzhou that could factor into the PRC's plans for Taiwan. At the end: U.S.-China updates, including a final rule from the U.S. on connected vehicles, proposed rules on AI chips, more alarms being sounded on PRC hacking, looming tech bro fissures, and the emissary from the PRC who may attend next week's presidential inauguration.

On a bonus episode following up on Wednesday morning's show, Andrew and Bill react to the news—which broke later Wednesday morning—that the Supreme Court has granted cert to TikTok in its appeal of the D.C. Circuit's decision earlier this month upholding the Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act. Topics include: A bit more hope for TikTok, revisiting the D.C. Circuit's answer to the First Amendment question that's now before the Supreme Court, various Trump unknowns, and a busy holiday season for Jones Day associates.

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with a few updates on the Central Economic Work Conference, economic headwinds facing the PRC economy, including weaker-than-expected retail data, mixed data from the real estate market, and concerns from an economist assessing the conditions on the ground. From there: Reactions to last week's PLA exercises around Taiwan, divergent reactions from policymakers in Taipei and Washington, and a new report on the process behind the Biden Administration's latest round of updates to the semiconductor export controls. At the end: President-elect Trump on his relationship with Xi Jinping, TikTok takes its case to the Supreme Court, and the NBA (sort of) announces plans for a series of preseason games in Macau.

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the latest messaging from Beijing on efforts to stimulate the economy in 2025 and beyond. Topics include: Politburo language that echoes 2008, muted reactions from the mainland markets, why the ultimate policy decisions may not be made until the PRC has more clarity on Trump's intentions, and more. From there: Nvidia finds itself at the center of an antitrust probe, while the PRC restrictions on critical minerals are broader than initially thought, and drone components are now also being restricted from export to the US and Europe. At the end: Reviewing last Friday's verdict from the DC Circuit in TikTok v. Garland, and charting the next steps for TikTok and the Trump administration as January 19th approaches and TikTok faces a ban in the United States.

On today's show Andrew and Bill return from the holiday break with reactions to the latest round updates to the US export controls on semiconductors. Topics include: Why some think the updates are weaker than they should've been, takeaways from the past two years of chip controls, TikTok's new hopes, and whether the U.S. has now passed the peak of tough-on-China policies. From there: The suspension of Admiral Miao Hua, member of the Central Military Commission and director of the Political Work Department of the PLA, reports (and denials) that Defense Minister Dong Jun is under investigation, and thoughts on the way into the CEWC after November comes and goes without a public announcement of a Politburo meeting. At the end: Trump threatens 100% tariffs over a BRICS currency that does not yet exist, Beijing continues to guess at Trump's objectives with tariff policy, the latest on the US telecommunications hack, and good news for unfairly maligned grandmothers in the PRC.

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin by parsing the PRC readout from this weekend's meeting between XI Jinping and President Joe Biden, including the four red lines communicated by the PRC to the US, PRC language surrounding enhanced security ties between the US and pacific allies, and a farewell to the San Francisco vision. From there: Xi Jinping's message to APEC and the charm offensive planned for a Trump administration, China's calculus amid global climate initiatives, and extended thoughts on the recent mass casualties events around China and likely party responses. At the end: An update on the Trump transition, Howard Lutnick is picked to run the Commerce Department, and Apple and Google's calculus with respect to the TikTok law.

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with Friday's announcement from the NPC standing committee and more incremental stabilization measures from PRC leadership. Topics include: Foreign investors (again) hoping for more, "deepening reforms" and domestic consumption, the trade surplus with the US exceeds the trillion dollar threshold, and why attempts to build an alliance with the EU are unlikely to succeed. From there: Taiwan considers a big arms purchase as Trump prepares to take office, the Philippines aims to buy intermediate range missile launchers, and TSMC halts the sale of advanced chips to China. At the end: Trump's early cabinet picks, another report on Trump's plans for TikTok, the "reverse Nixon" dream, and Elon Musk's mother is a brand ambassador in the PRC.

On today's show Andrew and Bill talk through a second Donald Trump presidency and what it might mean for US-China relations. Topics include: a note of congratulations from Xi Jinping Thursday morning, memories of the first Trump presidency, the calculus from both sides as tariffs loom, a larger toolkit of responses to trade policy for the PRC, potential intermediaries between Trump's administration and PRC leadership, and the strategic challenges and opportunities that China sees in a Trump administration. At the end: TikTok's fate and whether Trump will save the app's future in the United States, additional details on the Salt Typhoon telecommunications hack, and thoughts on the Biden administration's approach to the PRC, and the challenges facing any U.S. administration.

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with an excellent report from Semi Analysis, and the state of the U.S. export controls on semiconductors and chipmaking equipment. Topics include: New reports of TSMC sales to Huawei-linked firms, the Commerce Department's oversight of chip controls, the various loopholes being routinely exploited by SMIC, Huawei and related entities, and enforcement questions for future administrations. From there: The NPC Standing Committee meeting is set for next week, the latest reports on what might be announced, and questions concerning the timing of the meeting, which will coincide with the US election. At the end: The PRC's crackdown on the private tutoring industry might be lifting, and reports that Chinese hackers targeted data from both Presidential campaigns.

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with Xi Jinping's visit to the16th BRICS Summit and Russia's rumored effort to build a platform for international payments that would be immune to Western sanctions. From there: The Power of Siberia-2 pipeline that may or may not materialize, waiting for news on the next meeting of the NPC standing committee, and one theory on how the US election could impact the timing of the next fiscal announcement. Then: Xi's visit to a PLA Rocket Force brigade in Anhui, the rhetoric Xi uses surrounding the PLA and its readiness, and thoughts on the continued buildout of the PRC nuclear arsenal. At the end: A note on Taiwan's energy security, clarity on the names of the National Zoo's new pandas, and a flurry of reports and questions surrounding Huawei, TSMC and the Commerce Department's oversight of export controls on chipmaking equipment.

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the news that the PRC has sent two pandas to the National Zoo in Washington D.C., as Qing Bao, a 3-year-old year-old female, and Bao Li, a 3-year-old male, begin a 30-day quarantine in the Panda House. Then: Takeaways from Monday's Operation Joint Sword 2024B around Taiwan, including the strategic value of these military exercises for the PRC, and the implications of normalizing this pattern of behavior. From there: Parsing the "stimulus" news over the last several days, including the strain on local governments, why reports suggest that Xi and the central government are taking action to help them, and heightened scrutiny on overseas investments. At the end: Following up on Bill's conversation about the 2024 US Election, a Financial Times report on PRC educators ordered to surrender their passport, and an emailer provides a look at the new quality productive forces in dentistry.

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the market's reactions to the NDRC press briefing on Tuesday, as Hong Kong saw all of last week's gains erased, while the PRC markets continued to see gains. Topics include: Misplaced expectations on the NDRC press conference, a National People's Congress meeting later in October that may articulate more concrete measures, and more thoughts on the continued volatility in the market themselves as well as commentary around the world. From there: An emailer has a question about a potential ByteDance IPO, a note on the broader concerns that persist in the PRC, and the EU passes tariffs on PRC EVs. At the end: A note on Taiwan National Day and the potential for an Operation Joint Sword 2024B, and a listener notes that Xi Jinping is leaving China far less frequently than he once did.

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with revived animal spirits and the market response to the stimulus measures emerging from Beijing. Topics include: The September Politburo meeting as a sign of the government's commitment, why the capital markets may be a security priority for Xi, what might have motivated the sudden policy shift at the top, and parallels to the market responses in 2014. From there: The property sector and the multi-layered problem policymakers are attempting to solve, Blinken meets with Wang Yi in New York but still no word on a phone call between President Biden and Xi Jinping, a PRC nuclear submarine sinks, and a question about succession in the event of Xi's passing.

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with a raft of measures announced this week to stimulate the economy. Topics include: A pop to the stock market just in time for the PRC's 75th anniversary, stimulating mergers and acquisitions, whether this week's measures indicate more relief in the months to come, and more. Then: The disappearance of prominent economist Zhu Hengpeng, and a reminder of structural problems under Xi that have continued to intensify, regardless of monetary policy. At the end: The Ministry of Commerce announces that the owner of Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger is under investigation, the US Commerce Department moves forward with a proposed rule that would effectively ban Chinese vehicles from the US, and a Substack post offers a taxonomy of Democrat China policies and questions about who might set the agenda for a Kamala Harris administration.

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin by wishing a happy Mid-Autumn Festival to all. Then: The PRC government implements the Decision on Gradually Raising the Statutory Retirement Ages. Why was this necessary, why were the changes made now, and what might this signal about the rest of goals and reforms announced at the Third Plenum? From there: The PRC blockade at Xianbin Jiao/Sabina Shoal appears to have succeeded as the Philippines returns the BRP Theresa Magbanua to port, and questions persist as to when, and how, the US might deter PRC tactics in the South China Sea. At the end: The latest lobbying effort surrounding updated export controls, Japan's negotiations with the US over export controls, the Biden administration takes on the de minimis loophole, and TikTok's trial begins in DC.

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with reactions to last week's arrest of Linda Sun, a former deputy chief of staff to governor Kathy Hochul. Topics include: The allegations contained in the Department of Justice indictment of Sun and her husband, the PRC efforts to influence local government officials around the world, the status of New York Consul General Huang Ping, and a report on the suppression of dissidents during Xi's APEC visit in November. From there: Updates on the overcapacity concerns around the world, a Bloomberg story on a $6.5 trillion stock rout, and reactions to a thoughtful Substack post on deleveraging efforts and deflation concerns in the midst of recent turmoil. At the end: An update on Qin Gang that may or may not resolve lingering questions, and a new rock bottom for the PRC men's soccer team.

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with a look at the dialogue between National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission Wang Yi. Topics include: Why meetings with Wang are valuable to the U.S. side, the progress the meetings have (and have not) yielded, and the strategy going forward. From there: Yet another clash between the PRC and the Philippines over the weekend, continued questions about when and how the U.S. may intervene, and updates on the next phase of chip controls as the Netherlands weighs a policy change, the PRC threatens retribution against Japan, and a cloud computing loophole persists. At the end: An emailer asks about Xi‘s speeches, and thoughts on the success of the best-selling video game in the world this week, Black Myth: Wukong.

On today's show Andrew and Bill return from the Beidaihe break with an update on a raft of Xi rumors and a programming note. Then: Back to the South China Sea, where good news at Second Thomas Shoal has quickly been overshadowed by an aerial incident at Scarborough Shoal and Monday's collision between PRC coast guard vessels and the Philippine coast guard. From there: A Foreign Affairs article outlining Beijing's perspective on the 2024 Presidential election in the US, three categories of American China strategists, and questions about Kamala Harris' approach to China. At the end: The scrutiny surrounding Tim Walz and his history of engagement with China, reports of a proposed rule on Chinese connected vehicle software, and a LiDAR company is removed from the Pentagon's blacklist.

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with a programming note for the next few weeks and various questions for the next few months of the Biden Administration. Topics include: A meeting between Secretary of State of Anthony Blinken and Wang Yi, more threats of escalating sanctions if the PRC supports Russian war efforts, what Kamala Harris China policies might look like, and whether the Commerce Department will take action on connected vehicles before November. From there: Rumors of Huawei's demise were greatly exaggerated, and why sanctions may have focused PRC energy without achieving their intended goal. At the end: Quick reactions to Tuesday's Politburo meeting, some very cautious optimism at Second Thomas Shoal, and surveying the PRC swimming controversy that came to light in April and continues to percolate this week in Paris.

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the Third Plenum resolution, Xi's explainer, and its reception among the investment community and China observers. Topics include: Why Xi staying the course should surprise no one, the significance of the five-year timeline set forth for reforms, specific domestic problems alongside broad rhetoric about goals and productive forces, and the external environment that serves as context for the party's priorities. From there: The party's timeline for planning the plenum highlights the lack of leaks in the Xi era, and a reminder that trade tensions are unlikely to abate anytime soon. At the end: A variety of thoughts on news organizations and journalists navigating the environment in China and Hong Kong, and a few memories of the 2008 Olympics in Beijing before the Opening Ceremony in Paris this weekend.

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with an overview of the third plenum and its significance before turning to Thursday's communique in the wake of the plenum. Topics include: Official news on Qin Gang and Li Shangfu twelve months after they each disappeared, the wide-range of goals throughout the communique, questions as we wait for implementation, and the party's stated goal of completing its reform tasks by 2029. From there: The rumors swirling around Xi Jinping and his health this week, and follow-up to the controversy surrounding edible oils. At the end: Reactions to President Trump's comments on Taiwan and America as an insurance company, and two stories on the state of the Biden chip policy.

On today's show Andrew and Bill prepare for next week's Third Plenum by talking through expectations and themes to watch. Topics include: The signals from April's Xinhua readout announcing the plenary session, remembering third plenums of the past, why common prosperity is on the agenda, why this year's plenum may be the clearest articulation of Xi's vision for the Party and the PRC, and examining some of the ongoing domestic issues that the Party may (or may not) try to address with reforms. At the end: A scandal over edible oils, the market for silicone masks, fierce competition in the bubble tea market, and checking in with Zach Edey.

On today's show Andrew and Bill are joined by Raja Krishnamoorthi, Democratic representative for the 8th District of Illinois, and the ranking member of the Select Committee on the Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party. Topics include: The Select Committee's work to draft and pass legislation to force the divestiture of TikTok, investigations into American VC investments in PLA-linked PRC companies, how to tackle IP theft in tech, searching for fentanyl progress since the Biden-Xi visit in November, PRC behavior in the South China Sea, and more.

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the latest incident at Second Thomas Shoal, where the Chinese Coast Guard blocked an attempted resupply of the Sierra Madre in a standoff that caused damage to Philippine Naval vessels and several injuries to members of the Navy. Topics include: Another escalation in a devolving relationship, whether the U.S. will intervene, why China has ignored Vietnam's buildup elsewhere in the Spratly Islands, and more. Then: Reports that Beijing has no preference between Biden or Trump in the upcoming U.S. election, the significance of the CMC Political Work Conference after a year of speculation about corruption throughout the PRC military, a report that Xi told EU leadership the U.S. wants China to invade Taiwan, reactions to a disturbing account of a Pentagon-backed propaganda campaign in the Philippines, and an email about Mount Everest.

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with Wednesday's announcement that the EU will increase tariffs on electric vehicles imported from the PRC, including potential responses from Beijing, the fissures among the EU coalition, the reality on the ground in and around Europe, and the war in Ukraine looming over the decisions from EU policymakers. From there: An attack on four U.S. teachers in Jilin City, the reactions among commentators in the U.S., and life for Americans living in the PRC. At the end: Xi Jinping asks entrepreneurs where all of China's billion-dollar startups have gone, questions about how Apple's AI plans might work in China, and an extended discussion of corruption among the party and the PLA, the baseline opacity of investigations, and a few memorable cases from the past.

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with PRC messaging at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, including the US responses to new Defense Minister Dong Jun, how neighboring countries perceive the divergence between PRC rhetoric and PRC actions, and takeaways from Operation Joint Sword-2024A. From there: Parsing Xi's January speech on "New Quality Productive Forces" in advance of the third plenum, overcapacity is becoming a political problem more than an economic debate, and a Financial Times story sheds light on the state of Russia-China negotiations surrounding the Siberia 2 pipeline. At the end: Bill remembers his time in China during the spring of 1989, thoughts on the structural forces that have suppressed memories of June 4 inside China, and lessons that the party has internalized in the decades that followed.

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with President William Lai's inauguration in Taiwan, including the PRC responses we've seen so far, recent activity around Kinmen island, and a Bloomberg report that ASML's EUV machines can be shut down remotely in the event of an invasion of Taiwan. From there: Friday's announcement of relief plans for the real estate sector, and more thoughts on the challenges facing policymakers as they look to revive consumer sentiment. Then: Questions on the People's Bank of China, a recent push into gold purchases, EV capacity, tariffs on foreign cars, and the latest Central Committee member to be investigated for corruption. At the end: Temu and Shein inspire a Saturday Night Live skit, and Rep. Mike Gallagher is formally sanctioned by the PRC.

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with an overview of the new tariffs announced by President Biden this week, including the implications for America's green energy industries, the evolving scope of global competitive realities, and a variety of questions for future US policymakers. From there: Why Beijing may be reluctant to issue a substantive response to US tariffs while the EU refines its own tariff policies on EVs, and Vladimir Putin's visit to China highlights the delicate balance Beijing has tried to strike between capitalizing on the relationship with Russia and maintaining its ties to Europe. At the end: The many hurdles facing policymakers trying to restore the real estate sector, a New York Times op-ed about TikTok, an update on the Michael Chang documentary that was delayed last year, and Pink Floyd in Sichuan.

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with takeaways from Xi Jinping's visit to France, Serbia and Hungary, where topics included cognac, "so-called overcapacity", the war in Ukraine, and Ambassador Lu Shaye twelve months after his comments about post-Soviet states. From there: The People's Daily and other party media went dark for much of the day on Tuesday, and the Biden administration does not renew export licenses that allow Intel and Qualcomm to supply Huawei with semiconductors for computers and mobile phones. At the end: The latest twist in the dispute at Second Thomas Shoal, an Australian helicopter takes evasive action to avoid the PLA, ByteDance and TikTok take their fight to court, and a book rec for anyone interested in the origins of the GDP metric.

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with a surprise, 24-hour trip to China for Elon Musk, and a Sunday meeting with Premier Li Qiang. Topics include: The Musk meeting as PRC response to mounting scrutiny in the US, the benefits to both sides of the Tesla-PRC relationship, and why this week's news may not answer Tesla's long term questions in the Chinese market. From there: Parsing the readout from the April Politburo meeting, including insights into how leadership sees the economy now, an announcement for the long-awaited Third Plenum, and policy changes that may or may not materialize in the months to come. At the end: Takeaways from Secretary of State Blinken's visit to Beijing last week, Xi Jinping prepares to travel to the EU amid a flurry of investigations into PRC entities and actors, and an emailer asks about the veracity of officially reported PRC economic data.