Chip Stock Investor Podcast

Nvidia just reported Q1 fiscal year 2027. The numbers are extraordinary even by Nvidia's own standards. Free cash flow of $49 billion. A nearly 60% free cash flow margin. Revenue guidance implying over $300 billion for calendar year 2026, with some estimates suggesting $400 billion is possible. Next quarter alone: $91 billion in guided revenue. Vera Rubin is beginning to ship and is expected to generate $20 billion in its first six months.And then Jensen Huang said something on the earnings call that almost nobody covered.Nvidia plans to become the world's largest CPU supplier in 2026.That single claim has profound implications — for Intel, for AMD, for every investor tracking the CPU market, and for the semiconductor supply chain at large. CSI called this out as a remote possibility during their CPU market share update just weeks earlier. Now it is a public commitment from Jensen Huang himself.CSI works through the full picture in this episode. They cover Nvidia's new revenue reporting framework — the shift from a single data center segment to two sub-markets. Hyperscale covers the five major cloud providers: Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Oracle. ACIE covers AI clouds, industrial, enterprise, and sovereign data centers. This segmentation matters enormously because 80% of global IT spending is still on legacy systems. The enterprise migration to AI infrastructure is just beginning to happen at scale, and for the first time investors have direct visibility into it through Nvidia's own reporting.They also run the reverse DCF at $223 per share. The result: 20% free cash flow per share growth over five years at a 6% terminal rate gets you to today's price. That is not historically cheap for Nvidia. But it is the lowest bar the company has had to clear in years — and given that EPS grew 214% and FCF per share grew 88% in Q1 alone, clearing that bar looks more feasible than it sounds.CSI's updated position: Nvidia remains their largest personal holding. The updated baseline assumption is 50% stock price growth for 2026, revised upward from 40%. Not a prediction. A framework for thinking about what the business needs to deliver to justify current prices.What we cover:— Nvidia Q1 FY2027: $49B FCF, 60% FCF margin, EPS +214% YoY— Revenue outlook: $300B+ in 2026, $91B guided next quarter— Vera Rubin: $20B in sales expected in first six months— New reporting framework: hyperscale vs. ACIE and why it matters— The enterprise migration — 80% of global IT still on legacy systems— Jensen's CPU claim: Nvidia to be world's largest CPU supplier in 2026— Reverse DCF at $223: 20% FCF/share growth, 6% terminal rate— Why Nvidia has looked "boring" while small caps ran hundreds of percent— Updated CSI baseline: 50% stock price target revised upwardSemi Insider members get access to CSI's full DCF and reverse DCF tools, live Q&A sessions, and analysis like this as it happens. Join at chipstockinvestor.comDisclosure: Nick and Kasey have a position in Nvidia. This content is for general information only and is not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk.chipstockinvestor.com

On the Q1 2026 earnings call for TransMedics, the CEO said something that stopped everyone in their tracks. Major transplant programs, he said, are going to Home Depot and buying YETI coolers to preserve human hearts before transplantation. None of those coolers are FDA-approved. None are validated for that purpose. That is the status quo TransMedics is trying to replace.This is CSI's update on TransMedics following their May 5th earnings report. TransMedics is not a semiconductor company — it sits in CSI's small bets basket, a collection of positions outside the core semiconductor thesis that Kasey follows closely. The company is building what it describes as the premier program for organ transplantation, combining a warm perfusion technology called the Organ Care System with its own aviation logistics network to dramatically improve the odds that a donated organ reaches its recipient in viable condition.The Q1 2026 numbers are solid. Revenue of $174 million, up 21% year over year, with 82% of organ transplants now covered by TransMedics' own logistics service. But the more interesting story is what comes next across four distinct growth catalysts.First, the CHOPS system — a new cold preservation device TransMedics just developed to serve the segment of the heart transplant market where cold storage is sufficient and warm perfusion is not required. Of 4,646 hearts transplanted in 2025, roughly 2,100 were preserved for less than four hours. That entire segment is currently going to Home Depot coolers. CHOPS is also the control arm TransMedics needed to run the ENHANCE Heart clinical trials — a clever solution to the problem of not being able to find a competitor willing to run head-to-head against their warm perfusion system.Second, European expansion — a logistics partnership with PAD Aviation in Germany and new infrastructure in Italy that could eventually double the total addressable market.Third, the kidney opportunity. Over 20,000 deceased kidney transplants happen annually in the United States. Between 8,000 and 9,000 kidneys are discarded every year due to prolonged ischemic times. TransMedics has designed a Gen 3.0 OCS platform for kidney transplantation, targeting 2027 for market entry.Fourth, the Gen 3.0 platform upgrade for liver, heart, and lung — parallel development tracks that modernize the core product across every organ.Kasey closes with something genuinely useful: an honest accounting of what could go right and what could go wrong, and why she continues to hold a small position.This episode was released to Semi Insider members several weeks before this public version. Members get Kasey and Nick's full research, live Q&A sessions, and analysis like this as it happens. Join at chipstockinvestor.com/membershipWhat we cover:— The CHOPS cold preservation system and why it exists— ENHANCE Heart trial — Part A and Part B explained— Will CHOPS cannibalize OCS warm perfusion revenue? The CEO's answer— Heart transplant market data — 2,131 hearts going to cold storage annually— European expansion — PAD Aviation and Italy buildout— The kidney opportunity — 20,000+ transplants, 8,000–9,000 discarded— OCS Gen 3.0 — kidney platform targeting 2027— Q1 2026 financials — $174M revenue, balance sheet, Summit Aviation debt— What could go right and what could go wrong for TMDX— CSI's current position and ongoing convictionDisclosure: Kasey and Nick hold a position in TransMedics. This content is for general information only and is not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk.chipstockinvestor.com

Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta just collectively committed to over $750 billion in capital expenditure for 2026. They spent $130 billion in a single quarter. That is a 70% increase from what these companies spent in 2025 — and the spending is still accelerating into the second half of the year.The ROI is showing up. Operating margins are expanding across all four businesses. Google Cloud grew 63% year over year. AWS grew 28%. Microsoft Intelligent Cloud grew 29%. Meta grew revenue 33%. This is not speculative infrastructure spending anymore. These are some of the most profitable businesses ever built, getting more profitable.But the more important conversation is about what this means for everyone else.CSI has a framework for understanding how AI infrastructure investment actually flows — and it is the most useful mental model for investors trying to figure out where value accrues in the AI buildout. The hyperscalers eat first. They buy the technology and deploy it internally before any customer touches it. Their strategic investment partners eat second — OpenAI, Anthropic, and others who receive capital and get early infrastructure access. Enterprise software companies and Neo Cloud providers eat third. They get the leftovers, and right now they are scrambling.This creates two distinct problems. Neo Cloud companies have great infrastructure but no vertical integration — no final product of their own. The moment spare capacity appears in the market, their economics break down rapidly. Enterprise SaaS companies have great products but no infrastructure control — they get stuck waiting for technology that the hyperscalers have already been using internally for years.CSI lays out what both camps need to do to survive the next phase: Neo Clouds need to start developing software and services of their own before excess capacity forces their hand. Enterprise software companies need to start acquiring infrastructure assets — and there are already early signals that the smarter ones are doing exactly that.This episode was released to Semi Insider members several weeks before this public version. Members receive CSI's full research, live Q&A sessions, and analysis like this as it happens — not weeks later. If that matters to you, the membership page is at chipstockinvestor.comWhat we cover:— Why hyperscaler earnings reactions are about cashflow expectations not beats or misses— $750B+ in 2026 AI CapEx — full breakdown across Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta— Amazon Q1 2026: AWS +28% YoY, operating margin expanding to 13.1%— Microsoft Q1 2026: Intelligent Cloud +29% YoY, 46.3% operating margin— Alphabet Q1 2026: Google Cloud +63% YoY, 36.1% operating margin— Meta Q1 2026: +33% revenue, CapEx raised to $245B, why the stock reaction was muted— The ROI is real — operating leverage across all four hyperscalers— The "who eats first" hierarchy — the most useful AI investing framework right now— Neo Cloud companies — the vertical integration problem and what needs to change— Enterprise SaaS — why they are chasing the puck and what the smart ones are doing— Early signals: Salesforce, Snowflake, Fortinet, Trade Desk CapEx movesDisclosure: Nick and Kasey hold positions in several companies mentioned. This content is for general information only and is not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk.chipstockinvestor.com

In 2000, venture capitalists funded 200 semiconductor companies. By 2015, that number had fallen to single digits. The cost of designing a chip went from $33 million in the late 1990s to over $200 million today, and it takes four or more years to complete. There are not enough engineers. The timelines are too long. The investment risk is too high.Faraj Aalaei has spent three decades watching this problem build. He co-founded Centillium Communications and took it public on Nasdaq in 1997. He co-founded Aquantia, took it public in 2017, and sold it to Marvell Semiconductors in 2019. He then spent several years investing in AI companies before recognizing that generative AI could do for chip design what it has done for software — compress timelines, reduce cost, and open the field to a much wider group of contributors.In 2024, he founded Cognichip with a straightforward but ambitious vision: everybody should be able to be a chip designer.Nick sits down with Faraj for a wide-ranging conversation that covers the full landscape — why the semiconductor industry has a structural problem that EDA companies like Synopsys and Cadence cannot solve alone, why generic large language models fall flat when applied to chip design, how Cognichip trains physics-informed models on proprietary synthetic data without touching any customer IP, and what actually happens to the semiconductor industry when design timelines collapse from years to months.The implications are significant. Hyperscalers like Google, Meta, and Microsoft could design more bespoke ASICs faster and cheaper. Foundries like TSMC would see shorter cycles between customer signup and first wafer revenue. Startups that today cannot raise funding because the design cost is too high would suddenly become investable. And companies like Nvidia — which already iterate faster than anyone in the industry — could move faster still.The conversation also covers Cognichip's differentiation from agentic workflow competitors, the fundamental reason why physics-informed models are necessary for semiconductor design in a way they are not for software, and — at the very end — the IPO question.What we cover:— Why chip design went from $33M to $200M+ and VC funding collapsed— The engineer shortage and why semiconductors lose to software for talent— Why the 6-year chip design lag is a fundamental problem for AI progress— EDA companies and AI — complementary rather than competitive— How Cognichip trains models without using customer IP— Physics-informed AI vs. generic LLMs — why the distinction matters— The vision: anyone can design a chip — what that actually means— What happens when design timelines collapse — impact on Nvidia, startups, foundries— Cognichip vs. agentic workflow competitors — the fundamental model difference— Hyperscaler ASIC strategies and CapEx implications— Manufacturing yield improvement and AI's role— The IPO questionDisclosure: Cognichip is a private company and is not publicly investable at this time. This content is for general information only and is not individual investment advice.chipstockinvestor.com

Over a year ago, CSI did a three-part deep dive on co-packaged optics after Nvidia dedicated an entire segment of its GTC keynote to the technology — naming Lumentum and Coherent as the primary beneficiaries. The analysis was right. They did not buy.That mistake is now worth talking about directly.Lumentum just reported fiscal Q3 2026 revenue up 90% year over year. Q4 guidance implies triple-digit year-over-year growth. Nvidia made a $2 billion investment in both Lumentum and Coherent, and separately announced a major fiber optic cable manufacturing expansion with Corning. Co-packaged optics products have not even begun shipping in volume yet — that catalyst hits in December 2026. The case for Lumentum continues to build.But this is CSI, and true conviction in a business means covering what could go wrong as well as what is going right. There is a significant dilution story unfolding that every Lumentum shareholder needs to understand before adding to a position.When the stock was trading at roughly one-tenth of its current price, Lumentum raised cash by issuing convertible notes — a type of debt that converts to equity when the stock reaches certain price milestones. The stock has now blown through those milestones. All of that convertible debt is now eligible to convert into stock at terms that are extremely favorable for the debt holders and extremely expensive for existing shareholders. The result: shares outstanding are expected to increase by approximately 20% over the next two quarters. Nick and Kasey explain the full mechanics clearly — why it happened, what it costs, and whether the revenue acceleration can outrun the dilution.Also covered: the Qorvo fab acquisition in North Carolina that adds indium phosphide manufacturing capacity in two to three years, and what operating leverage looks like when a company goes from negative margins to all-time highs in the span of a few quarters.What we cover:— Why CSI did the deep dive on co-packaged optics and still did not buy — the honest lesson— Lumentum fiscal Q3 2026: 90% revenue growth — what drove it and what comes next— Q4 guidance: triple-digit YoY growth before CPO products even ramp— Nvidia's $2B investment in Lumentum and Coherent — the supply chain signal— Nvidia and Corning fiber optic expansion — Nvidia's hands all over the supply chain— Co-packaged optics — the December 2026 catalyst that has not landed yet— Operating leverage in action: from negative margins to all-time highs— Convertible notes explained: why ~20% share dilution is coming in 2026— Qorvo North Carolina fab acquisition — InP capacity coming in two to three years— The bottleneck in laser module manufacturing and why Lumentum dominates itSponsored by fiscal.ai — 25% off any paid plan through May 14 only. Use our link: fiscal.ai/csiDisclosure: Nick and Kasey hold positions in Lumentum and Coherent. This content is for general information only and is not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk.chipstockinvestor.com

Intel stock is up big over the last year. On the stock price, CSI was wrong — and they are saying so directly.On the business analysis, they are standing firm.AMD is steadily taking data center CPU market share from Intel. The driver is availability — both companies rely on TSMC for their most advanced chiplets, but AMD has used that availability more effectively in a CPU shortage environment where demand is outpacing supply. After AMD's most recent earnings, the trajectory is clear: if things continue, AMD could pass Intel in data center and AI revenue as early as late 2026 or sometime in 2027.Intel's client segment — the portion of the business keeping the lights on — continues to face market share pressure from AMD. The turnaround story is real and the early innings are genuinely encouraging. But Intel at 104x forward earnings needs everything to go right, and a lot still needs to go right. AMD at 48x, with cleaner data center momentum and a more consistent growth trajectory, remains the cleaner pick — even after being wrong on Intel's stock price.This episode also covers two important supporting stories. Lattice Semiconductor is quietly back — up 42% in its most recent quarter, with record revenues possible as early as Q2 2026, and an AMI software acquisition adding roughly $1 billion in annualized revenue by year end. And AMD's embedded FPGA segment, inherited from the Xilinx acquisition, remains a highly profitable cushion even through its current growth trough.The close leaves listeners with one more thing to watch: the Vera CPU, coming later in 2026.What we cover:— Why CSI was wrong on Intel's stock price — and why the business analysis still holds— AMD vs. Intel data center CPU market share — the trajectory and what drives it— The CPU shortage and AMD's TSMC availability advantage— Intel client segment — profitable, but losing ground quarter by quarter— Intel at 104x forward P/E vs. AMD at 48x — what each multiple actually implies— Lattice Semiconductor: +42% quarterly, record revenues in sight for Q2 2026— Lattice AMI acquisition — $1B annualized revenue run rate by year end— AMD Embedded (Xilinx): profitable through the trough, modest growth returning— Intel Altera FPGA — now 51% private equity, no longer in the income statement— The Vera CPU — a teaser worth watching as 2026 developsSponsored by fiscal.ai — 25% off any paid plan through May 14 only. Use our link: fiscal.ai/csiDisclosure: Nick and Kasey hold positions in AMD. They do not currently hold Intel. This content is for general information only and is not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk.chipstockinvestor.com

Almost nothing in semiconductor land is cheap right now. First Solar might be the exception — and that is worth paying attention to, even if you have never thought of a solar panel manufacturer as a chip stock.First Solar trades at 12.7x forward earnings and 12.7x forward free cash flow. It carries over $2.4 billion in cash with almost no debt. It just reported record Q1 2026 revenue of just over $1 billion, up 24% year over year, with expanding profit margins. It manufactures domestically in five US facilities — a sixth is under construction in South Carolina. It benefits from Inflation Reduction Act tax credits through 2029. And it has just launched a new manufacturing process called CuRe — copper replacement — that increases panel lifetime energy yield by up to 8% and extends panel lifespan.Everything checks out. Until you look at the guidance and the backlog.Full year 2026 revenue is expected to come in flat to slightly down versus 2025. The order backlog, which peaked above 70 gigawatts in 2023, has now declined to under 48 gigawatts. First Solar is working through existing orders faster than it is winning new ones. A sizable cancellation from customer LightSource BP in 2024 and 2025 accelerated that decline. These are the hallmarks of a value trap — a stock that looks cheap because the future earning power is genuinely uncertain, not because the market has mispriced it.The potential inflection point is a pending Section 232 investigation into whether crystalline silicon solar panel imports — primarily from China, where state-subsidized price dumping has been a recurring competitive tactic — constitute a national security risk. If the ruling lands in Q2 2026 and tariff protections follow, First Solar's order book could refill rapidly. If it does not, the backlog decline continues and the cheap valuation has every reason to stay cheap.CSI walks through the full picture: the thin-film cadmium telluride technology edge, the CuRe manufacturing upgrade, the domestic supply chain advantage, the backlog reality, and a reverse DCF that shows the bar First Solar needs to clear is genuinely low — only 7% annual profit growth over five years with a 0% terminal rate gets you to today's price. The conclusion is honest: mildly interested, but the hallmarks of a value trap are present. Patience is the strategy.What we cover:— Why a solar company qualifies as a chip stock — and where First Solar fits in the supply chain— First Solar Q1 2026: $1B+ revenue, record margins, $2.4B cash, minimal debt— Thin-film cadmium telluride vs. crystalline silicon — the technology difference that matters— The CURE manufacturing process: launching now in Ohio, targeted across all facilities— Domestic US manufacturing as a competitive and geopolitical advantage— The guidance problem: flat to down revenue in 2026— The backlog decline: from 70GW in 2023 to under 48GW and still falling— Section 232 tariff investigation — the binary catalyst expected Q2 2026— Reverse DCF: 12.7x earnings, 7% growth, 0% terminal rate— CSI verdict: mildly interested, but patient — the value trap signs are realDisclosure: Nick and Kasey do not currently hold First Solar. This content is for general information only and is not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk.chipstockinvestor.com

Prediction markets have been easy to dismiss as a gambling product dressed up in financial language. That became harder to do when Intercontinental Exchange — the company that owns the New York Stock Exchange — quietly took a 25% stake in Polymarket. And when Robinhood partnered with Susquehanna to acquire a MIAX exchange platform that is already regulated and cleared specifically for prediction markets trading.The finance industry has a long habit of showing up wherever money is moving and taking a cut. It is showing up here now. The question for investors is not whether prediction markets will become a legitimate financial product — Nick and Kasey think that trajectory is clear. The question is which publicly traded companies are best positioned to benefit, and how to think about the difference between a short-term hype cycle and a genuine secular growth theme.In this episode, CSI steps outside its core semiconductor focus to cover the full prediction markets landscape and compare Robinhood and Interactive Brokers head-to-head on their Q1 2026 earnings — because the way those two businesses generate revenue tells you almost everything you need to know about which one is built for the long run.Robinhood reported $1 billion in revenue, up 15% year over year, with EPS up just 3% — slower than investors expected. The stock dipped on the report. But the MIAX acquisition is genuinely interesting: a regulated, cleared prediction markets exchange that could morph from a retail gambling product into a professional risk management tool for investors hedging real portfolio exposure against real-world outcomes.Interactive Brokers reported $1.68 billion in revenue, up 17% year over year, across 4.75 million accounts. The revenue chart tells a different story — smooth, consistent, institutional. Net interest income has grown to exceed transaction revenue over the past decade. ForecastEx, their prediction markets product, launched in 2024 and is already aimed at professional investors rather than retail gamblers.The comparison matters. One business is built around hype cycles and transaction spikes. The other is built around compounding institutional trust. Both are in prediction markets now. Only one of them looks like Interactive Brokers fifteen years from now.What we cover:— The prediction markets landscape: Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, CBOE, NASDAQ, ICE— ICE owns 25% of Polymarket — what institutional validation means for the industry— Robinhood Q1 2026: $1B revenue, EPS +3% — the MIAX acquisition explained— Why prediction markets become risk management tools, not just gambling— Interactive Brokers Q1 2026: $1.68B revenue, smooth institutional revenue model— HOOD vs. IBKR: boom-bust vs. compounding — what the revenue charts actually show— The finance flywheel: why Wall Street always finds a way to monetize a new cycle— Our current positions and how we're thinking about this as a portfolio diversification playDisclosure: Nick and Kasey hold positions in Robinhood. This content is for general information only and is not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk.chipstockinvestor.com

Seagate just reported its best free cash flow in a decade. EPS is up 115% year over year. Revenue grew 44%. Management is calling it a structural shift — the idea that nearline hard disk drives have permanently broken out of their long secular decline thanks to AI data center demand.The numbers are real. The demand from hyperscalers is real. The Mozaic 4 platform shipping at 40-plus terabytes per device is real, and the Mozaic 5 roadmap targeting over 50 terabytes in late 2027 is genuinely impressive. When AI inference needs to recall vast quantities of stored data almost instantaneously, nearline HDDs are exactly the right tool, and Seagate is the dominant supplier. The $1.1 trillion in remaining performance obligations that cloud providers have committed to accelerated compute infrastructure means there is a multi-year demand runway here that is not in dispute.What is in dispute is whether calling this a structural shift — rather than a very powerful cyclical upswing driven by a once-in-a-generation CapEx surge — is accurate. Hard disk drive technology is mature. NAND flash and SSDs will continue taking market share over a long enough time horizon. And Seagate, for all its current dominance, is still a price-taker in a commodity memory market. The party is real. The question is how long it lasts and what you do while it's happening.In this excerpt from a Semi Insider live Q&A session, CSI works through every layer of Seagate's Q3 FY2026 results and close with something genuinely useful for investors: a three-part framework for handling a commodity stock that is over-earning in a cycle without knowing exactly when it ends.What we cover:— Seagate Q3 FY2026: $3.1B revenue (+44% YoY), 47% gross margin, EPS +115%— Best free cash flow in a decade: $953M and the operating leverage story— Q4 FY2026 guidance: $3.45B revenue (+41% YoY), EPS of $5 (+123% YoY)— The structural shift thesis: what management is claiming and what history says— Nearline HDD explained: why AI inference changed the demand equation— Mozaic 4 shipping now, Mozaic 5 roadmap to late 2027— Data center revenue: $2.5B of $3.1B total — hyperscaler dependency— The $1.1T cloud RPO and Seagate's multi-year runway— Reverse DCF: 56% EPS growth over three years — what it implies at $687— Three frameworks for handling an over-earning commodity stock— The 2028 risk: debt paydown, shareholder returns, and the inevitable washoutMembers of Semi Insider get the full live session including extended Q&A and the complete research. Join at chipstockinvestor.com

Many investors were not aware of Advantest. This Japanese company quietly controls roughly 70% of the global semiconductor test equipment market — the quality assurance layer that every AI chip, every HBM memory module, and every packaged GPU must pass through before it ships to a customer. As AI chips have gotten more complex and more expensive, the cost of shipping a faulty one has risen dramatically, and the demand for Advantest's equipment has followed.The stock reflects that. Up 450% in the past year. Up roughly 250% since CSI first wrote about Advantest eleven months ago. Analyst earnings per share expectations have roughly doubled in twelve months — that is what drove the run. Advantest just reported FY2025 results of $7.1 billion in revenue and guided FY2026 to approximately $9 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase. In a test equipment market the company itself sizes at $12.5 to $13 billion for 2026, that would put Advantest's global market share approaching 70% — a level of dominance that is genuinely rare in any industry.Nick and Kasey cover the full picture in CSI's first public video on Advantest: how it became the undisputed leader, why the test equipment slice of the $140 billion wafer fab equipment market is small but critical, what the 47x forward earnings and 56x forward free cash flow multiples actually imply, and why some analysts are already flagging a potential cycle downturn starting in 2027 even as the bulls hold firm.The close is pure CSI. Radical moderation. Patience is a strategy. Stay in the game and survive.What we cover:— Advantest FY2025: $7.1B revenue and dominant market share vs. Teradyne and Aehr— FY2026 guidance: ~$9B — approaching 70% of a $12.5–13B global TAM— Why AI chips and packaged modules require testing — and why it is getting more expensive— Test equipment as a slice of the $140B WFE pie — small, critical, and cyclical— Valuation: 47x forward P/E and 56x forward FCF — what the re-rate means now— Analyst EPS doubled in twelve months — the mechanics of why the stock ran— The 2027 cycle risk: bear vs. bull analyst expectations laid out clearly— Radical moderation: the CSI framework for parabolic stocks and surviving the cycleSponsored by fiscal.ai — the platform behind CSI's research charts. Get 15% off at fiscal.ai/csiDisclosure: This content is for general information only and is not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk.chipstockinvestor.com

Two years ago, Nick called out GE Vernova when the profit margin was still near zero and the company had just been spun off from GE. The thesis was straightforward: free of the conglomerate, management could finally allocate capital productively, margins would expand, and the company would be perfectly positioned for the AI-driven build-out of the electric grid and data center power infrastructure.That thesis has now fully played out. GE Vernova just reported Q1 2026 earnings — nearly $5 billion in free cash flow, raised revenue guidance to $44.5–45.5 billion, higher EBITDA and FCF margins, and an essentially debt-free balance sheet even after completing the Prolec acquisition in February.In this excerpt from a Semi Insider live research session, Nick breaks down every number that matters: what drove the free cash flow surge, how to correctly read the Prolec accounting effects, why the unregulated data center power market is GEV's most important growth driver right now, and what the reverse DCF at current prices is actually telling investors. Not cheap. Not absurd. Closer to fair value than the deep discount it represented two years ago — but still a compelling hold if you already own it.Nick also tackles the macro question head-on: is power really the bottleneck for the AI data center build-out? Jensen Huang said yes on the Dwarkesh podcast. Nick said essentially the same thing last November. The regulatory environment for utility companies, the unregulated opportunity in dedicated data center power generation, and the timeline reality of building power plants and expanding grids all factor into the answer.What we cover:— GEV Q1 2026: orders, backlog, revenue, and EBITDA all significantly up year over year— Free cash flow of ~$5B — separating the Prolec accounting effect from the underlying business— The Prolec acquisition: what GEV inherited and what it means for the balance sheet— 2026 guidance raised: $44.5–45.5B revenue, higher margins across the board— The unregulated data center power opportunity — why this changes GEV's growth profile— Wind power: offshore still stalled, onshore orders starting to recover— Reverse DCF at ~$1,100/share: 12% growth — our current verdict on valuation— The Axon Enterprise connection and what the reindustrialization thesis really looks likeThis is an excerpt from our Semi Insider live research session. Members get the full analysis, extended valuation discussion, and live Q&A on GEV and the rest of the energy infrastructure stack. Join at chipstockinvestor.comDisclosure: Nick and Kasey are GE Vernova shareholders. This content is for general information only and is not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk.chipstockinvestor.com

Lam Research just reported its best quarter ever — and then guided the next quarter to $6.6 billion in revenue. Wall Street was expecting $6.1 billion. In this episode, Nick and Kasey break down everything that matters from Lam Research's Q3 fiscal year 2026 earnings: the headline numbers, the mix shift toward memory, the advanced packaging growth story, what management's $796 million share buyback at all-time highs is actually communicating, and why Lam has quietly become CSI's largest semiconductor equipment holding — overtaking Applied Materials, where their conviction started over a decade ago.There is also the acceleration of the $40 billion NAND conversion investment timeline, now expected to complete before the end of 2027 — a significant pull-forward that increases near-term equipment demand for exactly the etch and deposition tools that Lam dominates. What we cover:— Q3 FY2026 results: $5.84B revenue, +24% year over year, EPS beat, gross margin approaching 50%— Q4 guidance: $6.6B vs. $6.1B analyst consensus — what the gap means for the cycle— Memory mix rising to 39% of systems revenue and why it has further to run in 2026 and 2027— Advanced packaging revenues targeted to grow over 50% in calendar year 2026— Customer support segment hits a record $2B — the recurring revenue cushion for the next downturn— The $796M share buyback at all-time highs — management's unambiguous signal— The $40B NAND conversion acceleration and what it means for Lam's revenue runway— Wafer fab equipment spending raised to $140B annually — the industry-wide read-through— Why Lam has become CSI's largest fab equipment holdingSponsored by fiscal.ai — the platform powering CSI's KPI charts and financial data. Get 15% off at fiscal.ai/csiDisclosure: Nick and Kasey are Lam Research shareholders. This content is for general information only and is not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk.chipstockinvestor.com

Amazon just agreed to acquire Globalstar for somewhere between $11 and $12 billion. The catch: Globalstar did $273 million in revenue last year and has never been consistently profitable. So what exactly is Amazon buying — and why now?In this episode, Nick and Kasey work through the full strategic logic behind the deal, explain what Amazon Leo actually is, and then reveal the small-cap satellite manufacturer sitting directly in the supply chain that some investors haven't found yet.The short answer on why Amazon wants Globalstar: spectrum rights, an existing customer base that includes Apple's emergency SOS service, and a head start on the infrastructure needed to compete with SpaceX's Starlink. Amazon has been building toward this under the name Project Kuiper for years. The rebrand to Leo, the timing of Andy Jassy's shareholder letter, and now the Globalstar acquisition all point to the same direction — Amazon is serious about becoming a broadband internet provider, and broadband internet feeds every other part of the Amazon flywheel.The more interesting angle for investors is further down the supply chain. MDA Space, a Canadian satellite manufacturer, holds a $4 billion Canadian dollar backlog — and a significant portion of it is tied directly to building Globalstar's next-generation satellite constellation. The Amazon acquisition just confirmed that contract stays in force. For a company generating $1.6–1.7 billion in annual revenue, that backlog represents years of visibility, and the stock reacted accordingly when the deal was announced.Nick and Kasey walk through MDA's revenue growth trajectory, customer concentration risks, and a reverse DCF analysis that pegged fair value around $33 per share at the time of recording.What we cover:— The Globalstar deal: what Amazon is actually buying and why the price makes sense— Amazon Leo's performance specs and its early enterprise customers: Delta, AT&T, Vodafone, and others— How satellite internet feeds the Amazon flywheel: more broadband, more Prime, more AWS— SpaceX, EchoStar, and why Amazon moved when it did— MDA Space: the satellite builder in the supply chain, their backlog, and valuation— Blue Origin and the launch services picture as Amazon consolidates— A reverse DCF on MDA Space using fiscal.ai dataSponsored by fiscal.ai — get 15% off any paid plan at fiscal.ai/csiDisclosure: Nick and Kasey are Amazon shareholders. This content is for general information only and is not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk.chipstockinvestor.com

We've been following Aehr Test Systems since late 2022. We watched it run from a micro-cap to a $3 billion market cap on the back of AI accelerator hype — and we called what was coming next.In this episode, Nick walks through the full picture on Aehr Test Systems (AEHR): what the business actually does today, why the valuation has dramatically outpaced the fundamentals, and why management issuing $60 million worth of new stock into the market is exactly the signal investors needed to see.The core tension is straightforward but important. Aehr's InCal acquisition was genuinely smart — it diversified the business away from pure silicon carbide and EV testing into AI accelerator burn-in, likely serving Google's TPU supply chain through a subcontractor. Growth is returning. But the stock already reflects a massive, multi-year recovery in a single move. With quarterly revenue of just $10 million and fiscal 2027 guidance that implies somewhere between $50–100 million in annual revenue, a $2.5–3 billion market cap is pricing in a lot of optimism that hasn't been earned yet.This is a pattern CSI has seen before with Aehr — almost identically in mid-2023 during the silicon carbide and EV cycle peak. The key difference this time is that AI data center demand is likely more durable than EV was. But that doesn't mean the stock can't get ahead of itself in the meantime.The $60M ATM raise is management's way of saying: we agree the stock is ahead of our near-term guidance, and we're going to take advantage of that. It's not a death knell for the company. It is a clear signal about where we are in the cycle.What we cover:— Aehr's business today: silicon carbide, AI accelerator testing, and the InCal acquisition— Why $10M/quarter in revenue doesn't support a $3B market cap — yet— The ATM stock offering explained: what it is and why management used it— How the 2026 setup compares to the 2023 silicon carbide cycle top— Fiscal 2027: what management has guided and what remains unknown— Where the risk/reward sits for new investors considering entry nowSponsored by fiscal.ai — the platform Nick and Kasey use daily for semiconductor research. Get 15% off any paid plan at fiscal.ai/csiDisclosure: Nick and Kasey have held positions in Aehr Test Systems. This content is for general information only and is not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk.chipstockinvestor.com

ASML just raised guidance at both ends — new range is €36 to €40 billion for 2026, implying around 17% growth year over year. That's a strong result. But the data underneath it tells a more complicated story.In this episode, we break down what ASML's Q1 2026 earnings mean for the broader wafer fab equipment cycle, why ASML is expected to slightly underperform the 300mm equipment market this year, and what the semi.org outlook through 2028 is quietly flagging about the next mid-cycle slowdown.We also run a reverse DCF on ASML at current prices — and walk through why the implied earnings growth rate needed to justify today's stock price should give investors pause.This is not a sell call. It's a reality check on expectations in a market that has gone hardware-crazy and forgotten that cycles — including this one — don't last forever.Topics covered:- ASML Q1 2026 earnings and raised guidance- Semi.org wafer fab equipment outlook through 2028- 300mm fab market: $133B, 18% growth- Advanced packaging and where ASML fits in- Reverse DCF walkthrough: the 43% EPS growth problem- Mid-cycle slowdown probability and what to watchDisclosure: Nick and Kasey hold ASML. Content is for general information only and is not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk.Subscribe to the free weekly newsletter at chipstockinvestor.comWant deeper research and live discussion? Join our Semi Insider community at chipstockinvestor.com.

AXT Inc. (AXTI) ran from a $200 million market cap to over $4 billion in a matter of months. Now it's pulled back — and a lot of retail investors are wondering if it's a buying opportunity.CSI says: not so fast.In this episode, they pull back the curtain on the base materials layer of the semiconductor supply chain — the specialty wafer and ingot suppliers that exist before a single chip ever reaches a fab like TSMC or GlobalFoundries. It's a part of the industry that rarely gets coverage, and right now it's generating some of the most speculative price action in the entire semiconductor market.They break down exactly what AXT does, why Indium Phosphide (InP) and Gallium Arsenide are driving the hype, and why the fundamentals don't yet support the valuation. The issues are serious: a third of revenue blocked by geopolitical export restrictions, negative free cash flow history, a $60M backlog that requires a $100M greenfield fab to convert into actual revenue, and a recent dilutive stock issuance. The same warning flags are appearing in other specialty names like IQE in the UK.The bigger picture: this is what a bull market hype cycle looks like at the base materials level. The market is good at sniffing out bottlenecks — but traders and long-term investors diverge sharply at a certain point, and Nick and Kasey explain exactly where that line is.They close with where they'd rather put capital today: Broadcom, Coherent, Lumentum, and Sumitomo Electric.What we cover:— The semiconductor wafer supply chain: ShinEtsu, Siltronic, Sumco, Global Wafers, Soitec— Specialty compound wafers: what InP and GaAs are and why data centers need them— AXT Inc. revenue reality vs. the $4B market cap narrative— The China JV geopolitical risk blocking ~33% of revenue— Free cash flow, dilution, and the greenfield fab dilemma— IQE and other penny stock warning signs in the sector— Where Nick and Kasey are deploying capital insteadDisclosure: Nick and Kasey hold positions in Broadcom, Coherent, and Lumentum. Content is for general information only and is not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk.Subscribe to the free weekly newsletter at chipstockinvestor.comWant deeper research and live discussion? Join our Semi Insider community at chipstockinvestor.com.

Chip fab capacity is maxed out — and TSMC is the biggest winner. But new risks are emerging fast.In this episode, Nick and Kasey break down TSMC's Q2 2026 earnings guidance: $39–40 billion in quarterly revenue, 30% year-over-year growth, and gross margins approaching 67.5%. Then they dig into what could actually slow TSMC down.Topics covered:— Helium and LNG shortages driven by the Strait of Hormuz closure— Taiwan's energy security and how long government-secured supply lasts— The Intel-Tesla chip "refactoring" announcement decoded— Could Elon Musk's consortium acquire Intel Foundry after the SpaceX IPO?— Samsung Foundry, Nvidia's Groq acquisition, and supply chain diversificationTSMC has navigated supply chain disruptions before. But with AI chip demand exploding and new competitors circling, the pressure is unlike anything the industry has seen.For the full earnings breakdown and supply chain chart, visit chipstockinvestor.com and check out the Semi Insider subscription.Chip Stock Investor covers semiconductors, AI infrastructure, and the companies powering the next wave of technology.For informational and entertainment purposes only — not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk and you may lose principal. Forecasts are not guaranteed. Nick and Kasey own shares of TSM.

Veeva Systems has been hammered by the AI-driven software selloff — but when you look past the stock chart, the fundamentals tell a completely different story. Zero debt, over $6 billion in cash, $1.4 billion in free cash flow, and a reverse DCF suggesting the market is pricing in only 5% growth. That seems like a very easy hurdle for Veeva to clear.In this episode, Kasey breaks down why Veeva is far more than a boring CRM company. Built specifically for the biopharma and life sciences industry, Veeva has embedded itself into every stage of the drug development process — from R&D and clinical trials through manufacturing compliance and global regulatory filings.We cover:- What Veeva actually does — the four-segment cloud stack explained- FY2026 results: $3.2B revenue, 16% year-over-year growth- The balance sheet: $6B+ cash, zero debt- Free cash flow growing at a 16% CAGR on a per-share basis- Is AI a genuine threat to Veeva — or a tailwind?- CEO Peter Gassner's case for AI as symbiotic, not disruptive- The real bottleneck in getting drugs to patients — and where Veeva fits- A reverse DCF valuation walkthrough: what growth rate is actually priced in?We lay out the full case and leave the conclusion where it belongs — with you.Want deeper research and live discussion? Join our Semi Insider community at chipstockinvestor.com. New members can access the Discord server until April 15th.Disclaimer: Content is for general information and educational purposes only and does not constitute specific investment advice. All investing involves risk. Nick and Kasey hold a position in Veeva Systems.

Circle Internet Group (CRCL) just dropped its first annual report — and this "crypto stock" operates more like a bank than most investors realize.We dig into reserve income, USDC in circulation, the Circle Reserve Fund managed by BlackRock, and exactly what the Federal Reserve's rate moves mean for this business.We also break down Arc Blockchain, the Circle Payments Network, and run a Reverse DCF to show what growth rate is already baked into the stock at 80x forward earnings.We still hold a small position — we'll tell you why, and what would change our mind.Data powered by Fiscal.ai — 15% off at fiscal.ai/csi.More research at chipstockinvestor.comNick and Kasey own shares of CRCL.Content is for general information and entertainment only — not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk.

Sony quietly controls 50% of the world's CMOS image sensors — including every camera inside every iPhone. But most investors still think of them as a gaming company.In this episode, Bob Ma, investor at WIND Ventures and physical AI specialist, breaks down why Sony Semiconductor could be one of the most undervalued positions in the entire AI hardware stack — and what the shift from digital AI to physical AI means for demand.Robots. Self-driving cars. AI glasses. Every single one needs multiple cameras and sensors. The smartphone era already did the heavy lifting on cost and manufacturing scale. Now that infrastructure is about to be redeployed into the physical world — and Sony sits at the foundation of all of it.WHAT WE COVER:How CMOS image sensors work and why Sony's stacked architecture is nearly impossible to replicateBob's Physical AI investment framework: GPUs → ASICs → perception sensorsThe three physical AI embodiments driving the next wave: humanoid robots, autonomous vehicles, and AI wearablesWhy specs like global shutter, HDR, and zero latency matter for robots in ways smartphones never requiredSony's SPAD lidar play and how it's built on the same CIS foundationMarket share breakdown: Sony, Samsung, OmniVision, and ON SemiThe real risks: Samsung threatening Apple supply share, AI memory shortages hitting PlayStation, the conglomerate discount, and yen exposureLINKS & RESOURCES:Bob's full article on the thesis:https://aijourn.com/from-training-to-inference-to-perception-the-still-overlooked-chip-driving-the-next-ai-supercycle/Free Weekly Newsletter:https://mailchi.mp/b1228c12f284/sign-up-landing-page-short-formMore Episodes:https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/chipstockinvestorSemiconductor Insider — deeper data and financial analysis:https://chipstockinvestor.com/pricing/15% off Fiscal.ai:https://fiscal.ai/csi/This podcast is for general information and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute individual investment advice. All investing involves risk.

The 2026 CPU shortage is making headlines — but the real story isn't a supply crisis. It's Intel losing its data center CPU dominance at exactly the wrong moment, and AMD stepping in to fill the gap.In this episode we break down:Why the CPU bottleneck is an Intel market share problem, not a shortageAMD's EPYC Turin and Venice CPUs and why they're positioned to winIntel's Apollo equity buyback and what it signals about their manufacturing strategyARM's pivot from IP licensing to chipmaking — and why we're still watching from the sidelinesWho is best positioned financially to meet the growing AI inference CPU demandThis is Part 2 of our CPU series. Part 1 covered ARM's new AI CPU — search "ARM Holdings Is Threatening x86 Dominance. Here's Why We're Still Not Buying the Stock"on this podcast feed to catch up.Nick and Kasey own shares of AMD.Content is for general information and entertainment only — not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk.Semiconductor Insider (Discord + deeper analysis): chipstockinvestor.com/pricingFiscal.ai 15% discount: fiscal.ai/csiFree Newsletter: mailchi.mp/b1228c12f284/sign-up-landing-page-short-form

ARM Holdings just made history. For 35 years, ARM was a licensing company — selling IP blueprints to Apple, Nvidia, and Qualcomm. Now they're designing and selling their OWN chips.The ARM AGI CPU is their first-ever production silicon, built specifically for AI inference in data centers — and it's already got Meta, OpenAI, and Cloudflare as customers.In this episode, we break down:What the ARM AGI CPU actually is and why it mattersHow it stacks up against Intel Xeon and AMD EPYC VeniceWhy ARM claims 2x performance per rack vs x86The SoftBank problem — and why we're still not buying ARM stockWhat this means for the CPU shortage in AI data centersCo-designed with Meta, manufactured by TSMC on a 3nm process, and backed by 50+ ecosystem partners — this is a fundamental shift in ARM's business model and a direct shot at x86.Want deeper semiconductor data and financial analysis?Semiconductor Insider: chipstockinvestor.com/pricingFree Weekly Newsletter: mailchi.mp/b1228c12f284/sign-up-landing-page-short-formFiscal.ai 15% discount: fiscal.ai/csiContent is for general information and entertainment only — not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk.

What can a group of machine-smashing craftsmen from 1800s England teach us about AI, data centers, and the chip trade? More than you'd think.We brought in Jacob Goldstein — host of Business History Pod and What's Your Problem, and author of Money: The True Story of a Made Up Thing — to dig into what the Luddites actually got right, and what that means for where we are today.The Luddites were skilled workers who saw automation coming and fought back. They weren't wrong about what was coming — they were just early. The Industrial Revolution eventually lifted everyone, but that long run took nearly 40 years.We dig into the parallels that matter:Job displacement and political backlashGovernment intervention and regulatory captureThe commodification of techWhy software might be having its own "Ford assembly line" momentAI agents as the new factory workersPlus: the SaaS apocalypse, AI slop, and the one-person unicorn.Guest: Jacob GoldsteinBusiness History Pod: youtube.com/@BusinessHistoryPodSuggest an episode: businesshistory@pushkin.comSemiconductor Insider (Discord + deeper analysis): chipstockinvestor.com/pricingFiscal.ai 15% discount: fiscal.ai/csiFree Newsletter: mailchi.mp/b1228c12f284/sign-up-landing-page-short-formContent is for general information and entertainment only — not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk.

ASML is known for one thing: the most advanced EUV lithography machines on the planet. But there's a quieter story developing in their advanced packaging division that's worth paying attention to.While the Fab Five have seen a recent sell-off, the second half of 2026 is shaping up to be a revenue inflection point for the semiconductor equipment sector.In this episode, we dig into how ASML is iterating on decades-old i-line technology with the Twinscan XT:260 — and why that "ancient" tool is suddenly relevant again for solving critical modern problems like wafer warpage and 3D chip integration.We cover:The 2026 revenue outlook for semiconductor equipmentFront-end wafer development vs. advanced packagingCompetitor spotlight: Onto, Lam Research, and BESI rumorsASML's Twinscan XT:260 and the Carl Zeiss precision optics partnershipWhether packaging can actually move ASML's bottom lineSemiconductor Insider (Discord + deeper analysis): chipstockinvestor.com/pricingFiscal.ai 15% discount: fiscal.ai/csiFree Newsletter: mailchi.mp/b1228c12f284/sign-up-landing-page-short-formNick and Kasey own shares of ASML.Content is for general information and entertainment only — not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk.

IPG Photonics just dropped an earnings report without mentioning AI once. In a world where every tech company is waving the AI wand, that's either boring or brilliant — we think it's the latter.IPGP is flying under the radar as a critical player in global industrial manufacturing, and the industrial slump may finally be turning a corner.In this episode we cover:Why the "no AI" earnings report is actually a signal worth paying attention toIPGP vs. LASR: defense, drones, and momentumHow fiber lasers work and why they're replacing chemical processes in cutting and weldingThe battery and robotics revolution driving new demandFinancial deep dive: revenue slumps and the recovery caseCompetition, patent risks, and how to think about the 67% growth expectationOur final verdict on how to size this positionNick and Kasey own shares of IPGP.Content is for general information and entertainment only — not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk.Semiconductor Insider (Discord + deeper analysis): chipstockinvestor.com/pricingFiscal.ai 15% discount: fiscal.ai/csiFree Newsletter: mailchi.mp/b1228c12f284/sign-up-landing-page-short-form

Is High-Bandwidth Flash (HBF) a direct competitor to HBM, or something entirely new? In this episode, we break down the technology of High-Bandwidth Flash (HBF) and its role in solving the "memory wall" for AI inference.We explore how HBF fits into the existing memory hierarchy—sitting between HBM and traditional NAND flash—to provide high capacity and increased speed for the next generation of AI data centers. We also discuss the technical side of the SanDisk and Kioxia partnership, including BiCS technology and CBA wafer bonding, and when investors can expect this technology to actually hit the bottom line.Join us on Discord with Semiconductor Insider, sign up on our website: www.chipstockinvestor.com/membershipSupercharge your analysis with AI! Get 15% of your membership with our special link here: https://fiscal.ai/csi/Sign Up For Our Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/b1228c12f284/sign-up-landing-page-short-formChapters:01:17 – The NAND Market: Key Players (Micron, Samsung, SK hynix) 02:10 – What is NAND Flash? Memory vs. Storage 02:50 – The Memory Hierarchy: Capacity vs. Speed 03:57 – What is High-Bandwidth Flash (HBF)? 04:32 – HBF vs. HBM: Clearing up the Misunderstandings 05:10 – The Tech: BiCS, 16-Chip Stacks, and Wafer Bonding 05:57 – Solving the AI "Memory Wall" & Inference Bottleneck 06:58 – Timeline: When Will HBF Generate Revenue? 08:01 – Investment Strategy: The Fab Five & Lam ResearchIf you found this video useful, please make sure to like and subscribe!*********************************************************Affiliate links that are sprinkled in throughout this video. If something catches your eye and you decide to buy it, we might earn a little coffee money. Thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction!Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal. #HBF #HighBandwidthFlash #HBM #AIInvesting #Semiconductors #ChipStockInvestor #SanDisk #NAND #DataCenter #AIHardwareNick and Kasey own shares of Sandisk

Are the hyperscalers including Alphabet the ultimate cybersecurity investment for 2026? While hyperscalers like Microsoft—boasting a projected $37 billion in fiscal 2025 revenue—Google, and Amazon are the safest entry points , pure-play companies like CrowdStrike often provide more robust, fast-moving products for organizations that prioritize high-level data security. We explore how the shift toward AI agents and platform-based models is driving massive vendor consolidation across the industry.Learn how to identify the winners in this era of disruption using a specific qualitative and quantitative checklist. We explain why metrics like Return on Equity (ROE) are more effective than ROIC for measuring the performance of acquisitive leaders like Palo Alto Networks. From the rise of AI-native startups to the importance of monitoring stock-based compensation, get the insights you need to determine which cybersecurity stocks will thrive and which will merely survive.Watch the cybersecurity video of 2026 here: https://youtu.be/foj_QXksKWEJoin us on Discord with Semiconductor Insider, sign up on our website: www.chipstockinvestor.com/membershipSupercharge your analysis with AI! Get 15% of your membership with our special link here: https://fiscal.ai/csi/Sign Up For Our Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/b1228c12f284/sign-up-landing-page-short-formChapters:00:00 - Starting with Hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, AWS) 01:00 - Pure Plays: Why Specialized Security Still Wins 02:11 - AI Agents & The Next Wave of Disruption 02:50 - Strategy Duel: Palo Alto Networks vs. Fortinet 03:55 - Legacy Giants: Broadcom, Cisco, & Arista 05:10 - The 2026 Investment Checklist 06:55 - Platform Dominance vs. Point Solutions 10:55 - Valuation Tip: Why ROE Beats ROIC for SoftwareIf you found this video useful, please make sure to like and subscribe!*********************************************************Affiliate links that are sprinkled in throughout this video. If something catches your eye and you decide to buy it, we might earn a little coffee money. Thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction!Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal. #Cybersecurity #Investing #StockMarket2026 #Microsoft #PaloAltoNetworks #CrowdStrike #AIAgents #TechStocks #SoftwareAsAServiceNick and Kasey own shares of PANW, FTFT, CRWD, GOOG, AMZN

Chip Stock Investor breaks down Micron's Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings, highlighting nearly $24B in quarterly revenue (tripling year over year), surging AI data center demand, and standout Q3 guidance of $33.5B versus about $23B expected. Financial highlights include $13.8B GAAP net income, $5.5B free cash flow amid heavy capex, and a strengthened balance sheet with $14.6B cash and about $10B total debt. DRAM and NAND volumes and ASPs jumped sharply, and while higher memory prices may drive mid-teens declines in 2026 PC and smartphone shipments, data center demand is expected to offset consumer weakness into 2026–2027.Join us on Discord with Semiconductor Insider, sign up on our website: www.chipstockinvestor.com/membershipSupercharge your analysis with AI! Get 15% of your membership with our special link here: https://fiscal.ai/csi/Sign Up For Our Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/b1228c12f284/sign-up-landing-page-short-formChapters:00:00 Micron Earnings Shock01:09 Revenue Surge Highlights01:46 Blowout Guidance Ahead02:53 Strategic Customer Deals04:23 Cyclicality Reality Check05:09 Profits Cash Flow Capex05:32 Balance Sheet Strength06:13 DRAM NAND Market Breakdown06:56 ASPs Soar In Shortage08:13 Consumer Demand Risks09:05 Outlook Stock VolatilityIf you found this video useful, please make sure to like and subscribe!*********************************************************Affiliate links that are sprinkled in throughout this video. If something catches your eye and you decide to buy it, we might earn a little coffee money. Thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction!Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal. #chipstockinvestor #micron #mutock #memorystocksNick and Kasey own shares of Micron

Nvidia's GTC 2026 is finishing up and there is a lot of focus on AI inference. Remember that licensing deal with Groq? By pairing Groq 3 LPX compute with Vera Rubin systems, Nvidia is targeting a 10x revenue jump—moving from $30 billion with Blackwell to a staggering $300 billion opportunity in Ai inference. Jensen Huang's "five-layer cake" strategy now dominates the entire data center stack, from power delivery to AI models, aiming for $1 trillion in total revenue through 2027.This new heterogeneous architecture blends GPUs for high throughput with LPUs for ultra-low latency, creating near-instant AI interactions. But is Nvidia right-priced right now?Join us on Discord with Semiconductor Insider, sign up on our website: www.chipstockinvestor.com/membershipCheck out these other Nvidia videos:https://youtu.be/50UfALpisPghttps://youtu.be/_6w9EbjaSIIhttps://youtu.be/_uvIkPwDu5Ahttps://youtu.be/p5w0aPzDi3ISupercharge your analysis with AI! Get 15% of your membership with our special link here: https://fiscal.ai/csi/Sign Up For Our Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/b1228c12f284/sign-up-landing-page-short-formIf you found this video useful, please make sure to like and subscribe!⏳ Chapters00:00 – Nvidia GTC 2026: The Groq Licensing Deal 01:00 – The "Five-Layer Cake" of AI Data Centers 01:55 – From Chip Designer to Supply Chain Giant 02:50 – Road to $1 Trillion: 2025–2027 Revenue Outlook 04:20 – Groq 3 LPX & Vera Rubin: The New Rack Solution 05:45 – GPU vs. LPU: Solving the Latency Problem 06:30 – Heterogeneous Architecture: Throughput & Interactivity 07:45 – The 10x Revenue Jump (Blackwell to Rubin) 08:20 – Stock Valuation: Is Nvidia Still a Buy? *********************************************************Affiliate links that are sprinkled in throughout this video. If something catches your eye and you decide to buy it, we might earn a little coffee money. Thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction!Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal. #Nvidia #GTC2026 #AIInference #VeraRubin #Groq #JensenHuang #StockMarket #Semiconductors #TechNews #DataCenterNick and Kasey own shares of Nvidia

Onto Innovation is a critical "choke point" in the semiconductor supply chain, providing the essential metrology and inspection gear that makes advanced packaging and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) possible. In this deep dive, we break down why their flagship Dragonfly system is a winner in the AI era and how the company is successfully pivoting growth toward Taiwan and South Korea to offset shifts in China.We also take a close look at Onto's rivalry with industry giant KLA Corp and how their recent Semi Lab acquisition is already fueling a massive ramp-up in 2026 revenue. With free cash flow per share exploding over the last five years, we're explaining why this mid-cap power player has earned its spot as a core long-term holding in our portfolio.Join us on Discord with Semiconductor Insider, sign up on our website: www.chipstockinvestor.com/membershipSupercharge your analysis with AI! Get 15% of your membership with our special link here: https://fiscal.ai/csi/Sign Up For Our Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/b1228c12f284/sign-up-landing-page-short-formChapters:00:00 The "Fab Five" vs. Onto Innovation 02:22 Metrology, Yield, and Defect Control 03:26 Front-End vs. Advanced Packaging03:32 What is the Dragonfly? Optical Metrology Explained 04:20 High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) & GPU Integration 04:49 Financial Turnaround: Revenue & 2026 Forecasts 05:19 The Semi Lab Acquisition Impact 05:54 Geographic Shift: China vs. Taiwan & South Korea 07:55 Free Cash Flow Growth & Portfolio Status 08:38 Risks: Mind the Industry CycleIf you found this video useful, please make sure to like and subscribe!*********************************************************Affiliate links that are sprinkled in throughout this video. If something catches your eye and you decide to buy it, we might earn a little coffee money. Thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction!Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal.#Semiconductors #Investing #OntoInnovation #AdvancedPackaging #AI #StockMarket #ChipStockInvestor #Metrology #HBMNick and Kasey own shares of Onto Innovation

Transmedics (TMDX) finished a great fiscal year in2025, but the market is reacting to some interesting shifts in their 2026 guidance. In this video, we break down why this organ care leader is a small bet in the Chip Stock Investor portfolio and what the inflection point from operating loss to profit means for long-term holders.In this video, we cover:--37% annual revenue growth and the Q4 beat.-- How sensors and semiconductor connectivity are replacing the ice chest legacy of organ transport.--Why Transmedics bought an aviation company and how their fleet of 22 aircraft is changing the game.--2026 Headwinds: We discuss the expected margin compression, international expansion costs in Italy and Europe, and the "seasonal" Q3 dip that always surprises the market.--Future Catalysts: The Kidney program, OCS Generation 3, and functional enhancement of donor hearts.Join us on Discord with Semiconductor Insider, sign up on our website: www.chipstockinvestor.com/membershipSupercharge your analysis with AI! Get 15% of your membership with our special link here: https://fiscal.ai/csi/Sign Up For Our Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/b1228c12f284/sign-up-landing-page-short-formIf you found this video useful, please make sure to like and subscribe!Chapters:00:00 —Transmedics 2025 Wrap-up 01:15 — The Q3 Seasonality Mystery Explained 02:30 — Q4 Financial Breakdown: Revenue & Margins 03:45 — Disrupting the Market: Transmedics vs. Cold Storage 05:10 — Scaling the Fleet: Logistics & Owned Aircraft 06:30 — Revenue by Organ: Liver, Heart, and Lung 07:45 — The "Chip" Connection: Sensors and Data 09:15 — Operating Profit Inflection Point 10:30 — 2026 Growth Opportunities: Kidney Program & Europe 12:00 — Headwinds: Competitive Trials & Infrastructure Costs 13:30 — 2026 Guidance: Revenue Deceleration & Margin Compression *********************************************************Affiliate links that are sprinkled in throughout this video. If something catches your eye and you decide to buy it, we might earn a little coffee money. Thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction!Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal. #Transmedics #TMDX #ChipStockInvestor #MedTech #GrowthStocks #Investing #StockMarket2026 #organtransplantation Nick and Kasey own shares of TMDX

We break down Oracle's Q3 FY2026 earnings, highlighting 44% year-over-year cloud revenue growth to $8.9B, driven by IaaS at $4.9B up 84%, while legacy software growth remains slower. We hash over Oracle's remaining performance obligations (RPO) of $553B, up 325% year over year, and discusses how heavy data center capital expenditures are pressuring free cash flow (over $11B negative) and contributing to slower constant-currency EPS growth (16%) versus revenue.Finally review guidance, including a $90B revenue outlook for FY2027 implying 34% growth, and share expectations for 30%+ growth with a longer-term view that Oracle could approach $200B in annual revenue by 2028. Join us on Discord with Semiconductor Insider, sign up on our website: www.chipstockinvestor.com/membershipSupercharge your analysis with AI! Get 15% of your membership with our special link here: https://fiscal.ai/csi/Sign Up For Our Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/b1228c12f284/sign-up-landing-page-short-formChapters:Chapters:00:00 Oracle Earnings 01:58 Q3 Highlights RPO Surge03:08 Cloud Segments Explained03:39 EPS Versus Revenue04:50 Guidance And Outlook06:44 200B Revenue Thesis08:28 CapEx And Cash Flow10:44 Debt Raise And Balance SheetIf you found this video useful, please make sure to like and subscribe!*********************************************************Affiliate links that are sprinkled in throughout this video. If something catches your eye and you decide to buy it, we might earn a little coffee money. Thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction!Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal. #oracle #ORCLstock #chipstockinvestor #datacenters #AI infrastructureNick and Kasey own shares of Oracle

In this analysis of Marvell Technology's (MRVL) Q4 fiscal year 2026 earnings, Chip Stock Investor explores the company's dramatic shift toward becoming an all-in AI data center infrastructure play as data center revenue approaches nearly 80% of total sales. The video breaks down Marvell's core technological buckets—Logic, Networking, and Storage—highlighting their custom XPU work for major customers like Amazon and the strategic impact of acquiring Celestial AI and XConn. Beyond company specifics, the discussion addresses critical macro disruptions, including rising oil prices and memory shortages that are impacting the global semiconductor supply chain in 2026. By comparing Marvell's trajectory to industry giant Broadcom and performing a reverse discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis at the current $90 stock price, this deep dive evaluates whether the market's 30% growth expectation for Marvell is a justified bet for long-term www.chipstockinvestor.com/membershipinvestorsJoin us on Discord with Semiconductor Insider, sign up on our website: www.chipstockinvestor.com/membershipSupercharge your analysis with AI! Get 15% of your membership with our special link here: https://fiscal.ai/csi/Sign Up For Our Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/b1228c12f284/sign-up-landing-page-short-formIf you found this video useful, please make sure to like and subscribe!*********************************************************Affiliate links that are sprinkled in throughout this video. If something catches your eye and you decide to buy it, we might earn a little coffee money. Thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction!Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal. #Marvell #Semiconductors #AI #Investing #ChipStocks #DataCenter #MRVL #StockMarket AnalysisNick and Kasey own shares of Broadcom

The cybersecurity landscape has shifted dramatically since our 2024 manual, especially following the SaaS Apocalypse. While pure-play leaders like CrowdStrike, Fortinet, Cloudflare, and our newest addition, Rubrik, remain central to the Chip Stock Investor core basket, the industry is moving away from siloed products toward unified AI-driven platforms.Despite recent market volatility, cybersecurity remains a powerful secular trend with global spending expected to hit $250 billion this year as organizations rush to secure new AI infrastructure and manage the risks of automated decision-making agents. Investing in this space now requires looking beyond just the software to the entire supply chain, where "cloud rent" and integration fees are eating into traditional margins. With hyperscalers like Microsoft reporting massive cyber revenues and AI labs like OpenAI entering the fray, the traditional software moat is under siege. We break down why the most resilient software plays might actually be the infrastructure giants that control the distribution and compute layers of the modern security stack.Watch our previous cybersecurity video: https://youtu.be/3rcz8RKgURUJoin us on Discord with Semiconductor Insider, sign up on our website: www.chipstockinvestor.com/membershipSupercharge your analysis with AI! Get 15% of your membership with our special link here: https://fiscal.ai/csi/Sign Up For Our Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/b1228c12f284/sign-up-landing-page-short-formChapters:00:00 – Beyond the 2024 Manual: What's New in 2026? 01:00 – Our Core 5: The Cybersecurity Stock Basket 02:00 – Survival Analysis: Post-February "SaaS Apocalypse"03:15 – The $250 Billion Secular Trend 04:30 – AI Risk: Why Every Organization is Scared Right Now 06:00 – The Software Supply Chain: Product vs. Infrastructure 07:45 – The Microsoft Dominance: $37B in Cyber Revenue? 09:30 – Resellers & Consultants: Who Else is Taking a Cut? 11:00 – OpenAI & Anthropic: The New Cyber Players 12:15 – The Bottom Line: Are There Any Moats Left?If you found this video useful, please make sure to like and subscribe!****************************************Affiliate links that are sprinkled in throughout this video. If something catches your eye and you decide to buy it, we might earn a little coffee money. Thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction!Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal.#Cybersecurity #Investing2026 #StockMarket #AI #CrowdStrike #PaloAltoNetworks #TechInvesting #ChipStockInvestorNick and Kasey own shares of PANW, FTNT, CRWD, RBRK

Broadcom's momentum does not appear to be slowing down anytime soon. With a Q2 revenue guide of $22 billion and AI chip sales projected to climb 140% year-over-year, the company is scaling custom silicon for the likes of Google, Meta, and the top AI labs.Announcements included its new custom accelerators called, get ready,...3.5D eXtreme Dimension System in package (XDSiP) platform. It's a mouthful, but new tech like this will continue to enable hyperscalers to design custom equipment for their own unique data center workloads. Join us on Discord with Semiconductor Insider, sign up on our website: www.chipstockinvestor.com/membershipSupercharge your analysis with AI! Get 15% of your membership with our special link here: https://fiscal.ai/csi/Sign Up For Our Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/b1228c12f284/sign-up-landing-page-short-formIf you found this video useful, please make sure to like and subscribe!*********************************************************Affiliate links that are sprinkled in throughout this video. If something catches your eye and you decide to buy it, we might earn a little coffee money. Thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction!Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal. #Broadcom #AVGO #Semiconductors #AI #Investing #ChipStockInvestor #TechStocksNick and Kasey own shares of Broadcom

Everpure, formerly known as Pure Storage (PSTG), is undergoing a significant business model transformation from solely a NAND flash hardware provider to a data management and software-centric company. This shift is highlighted by the acquisition of 1Touch (rebranded as Pure1) to enter the Data Security Posture Management (DSPM) market and a strategic partnership with Meta, where Everpure provides high-margin IP licensing and engineering services rather than just physical storage arrays. Despite record R&D spending approaching $1 billion and recent price increases to offset memory shortages, the market remains cautious as it waits for 75–85% gross margins from the Meta deal to reflect in financial results. What is CSI doing with our PSTG position?Join us on Discord with Semiconductor Insider, sign up on our website: www.chipstockinvestor.com/membershipSupercharge your analysis with AI! Get 15% of your membership with our special link here: https://fiscal.ai/csi/Sign Up For Our Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/b1228c12f284/sign-up-landing-page-short-formChapters0:00 - The Rebrand: From Pure Storage to Everpure 1:15 - "Everpure" or "Ever Distilled"? Initial Thoughts on the Name 2:30 - Where Everpure Fits in the Semi Supply Chain 3:45 - The Software Shift: Portworks, 1Touch, and Pure1 5:00 - DSPM: Entering the Data Security Market 6:15 - R&D Comparison: Everpure vs. NetApp 7:45 - The Memory Shortage & 2026 Price Increases 9:00 - Decoding the Meta Deal: Engineering & IP Licensing 10:30 - Margin Expectations: The Path to 85% 11:45 - Guidance & Revenue Forecasts for FY2027 13:15 - Is Management Sandbagging? 14:30 - Final Verdict: Is PSTG a "Wait and See"?If you found this video useful, please make sure to like and subscribe!*********************************************************Affiliate links that are sprinkled in throughout this video. If something catches your eye and you decide to buy it, we might earn a little coffee money. Thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction!Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal.#Everpure #PSTG #PureStorage #TechInvesting #Semiconductors #DataManagement #Meta #StockMarket #ChipStockInvestorNick and Kasey own shares of PSTG

Axon Enterprises (formerly Taser) is undergoing a transformation from a product-based company to a critical public safety infrastructure giant. In this video, we dive into their February 2026 earnings update, exploring how "Physical AI" and recent acquisitions like Dedrone and Carbine are fueling their next leg of growth.Join us on Discord with Semiconductor Insider, sign up on our website: www.chipstockinvestor.com/membershipSupercharge your analysis with AI! Get 15% of your membership with our special link here: https://fiscal.ai/csi/Sign Up For Our Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/b1228c12f284/sign-up-landing-page-short-formChapters:00:00 Axon: From Tasers to Public Safety Infrastructure 01:10 Revenue Breakdown: The Rise of Services 02:15 The "Inadvertent" Competitor: Motorola Solutions 03:45 Software Expansion: Carbine and 911 Dispatch 04:35 New Tech: Automatic License Plate Detection 05:55 Drone Defense: The Dedrone Acquisition 07:55 The Subscription Model & Ecosystem 09:45 2026 Guidance & $6 Billion Revenue Goal 11:20 Stock Dilution & Founder Compensation 14:15 Stock Valuation: Free Cash Flow Analysis 15:50 Final Verdict: Moats, Monopolies, and MomentumIf you found this video useful, please make sure to like and subscribe!*********************************************************Affiliate links that are sprinkled in throughout this video. If something catches your eye and you decide to buy it, we might earn a little coffee money. Thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction!Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal. #Axon #Investing #TechStocks #PhysicalAI #StockMarket #Taser #chipstockinvestor Nick and Kasey own shares of Axon

Can Nvidia Hit $500 BILLION?

AI is breaking out of the data center and entering the physical world around us. In this video, Kasey and Nick explore Synaptics (SYNA), a fabless chip designer traditionally known for mobile touch sensors that is now betting big on "Physical AI" and Human Machine Interfaces (HMI).Join us on Discord with Semiconductor Insider, sign up on our website: www.chipstockinvestor.com/membershipSupercharge your analysis with AI! Get 15% of your membership with our special link here: https://fiscal.ai/csi/Sign Up For Our Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/b1228c12f284/sign-up-landing-page-short-formChapters0:00 – CES Buzz & Synaptics 0:45 – Synaptics' Place in the Semiconductor Flow 1:30 – The Shift From Mobile to Enterprise & IoT 2:15 – What exactly is Human Machine Interface (HMI)? 3:40 – Chips for Physical AI 4:55 – The U-Shaped Recovery in Auto & Industrial 6:10 – Growth Challenges & Financial History 7:30 – Valuation: Reverse DCF & Forward FCF 9:15 – Final Verdict: Value Stock or Value Trap?If you found this video useful, please make sure to like and subscribe!*********************************************************Affiliate links that are sprinkled in throughout this video. If something catches your eye and you decide to buy it, we might earn a little coffee money. Thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction!Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal. #Synaptics #SYNA #Semiconductors #ChipStockInvestor #PhysicalAI #HMI #ValueInvesting #AstraChips #StockMarket2026Nick and Kasey own shares of some of the companies mentioned in the video as noted.

Are we in an AI arms race or a massive overspend? Kasey and Nick sit down with Simon Erickson, founder of 7Investing, to break down the staggering $364 billion spent on CapEx by Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon last year alone. In this deep dive, we discuss:-- Why companies like Google and Amazon are vertically integrating their own hardware (TPUs) to avoid Nvidia's high margins. --Apple's "Patient" Approach: Why Apple's flat CapEx isn't a sign of weakness, but a calculated move to let others foot the bill for early-stage inefficiencies. --Real-World AI Monetization: From "eliminating inefficiencies" in energy and healthcare to the shift from subscription models to usage-based AI agents. --The Future of Investing: How AI is automating the "grunt work" of stock picking while increasing the importance of human empathy and trust. Make sure you give Simon a follow  @7investing  Join us on Discord with Semiconductor Insider, sign up on our website: www.chipstockinvestor.com/membershipSupercharge your analysis with AI! Get 15% of your membership with our special link here: https://fiscal.ai/csi/Sign Up For Our Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/b1228c12f284/sign-up-landing-page-short-formChapters:0:00 – Introducing Simon Erickson & Seven Investing 2:15 – The $364 Billion CapEx Question 3:50 – Why Simon is Invested in Google & Amazon 5:10 – The Apple Anomaly: Flat CapEx Strategy 10:45 – Where is the AI Payoff? Monetization & Advertising 13:20 – AI in Healthcare: Predictive Diagnostics & Surgery 17:45 – Are We at Peak CapEx? 23:50 – Semiconductor Cycle: The ASML & Intel Bottleneck 28:45 – Will AI Replace Stock Pickers? 34:10 – The Retail Investor Edge in an AI WorldIf you found this video useful, please make sure to like and subscribe!*********************************************************Affiliate links that are sprinkled in throughout this video. If something catches your eye and you decide to buy it, we might earn a little coffee money. Thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction!Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal. #AI #CapEx #Investing #SevenInvesting #ChipStockInvestor #Hyperscalers #Apple #Google #Amazon #StockMarket2026 #Semiconductors #HealthcareAINick and Kasey own shares of Amazon, Google and others mentioned in the video

As we gear up for Nvidia earnings, the conversation in the AI data center era has shifted toward one critical ingredient: Memory. In this video we are discussing the "memory trade" and why High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) is causing such a shift in the market.In this video, we break down Micron's (MU) aggressive production ramp and debunk the rumors surrounding their place in Nvidia's supply chain. Join us on Discord with Semiconductor Insider, sign up on our website: www.chipstockinvestor.com/membershipSupercharge your analysis with AI! Get 15% of your membership with our special link here: https://fiscal.ai/csi/Sign Up For Our Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/b1228c12f284/sign-up-landing-page-short-formChapters:00:00 – The Memory Trade & Nvidia Anticipation 00:45 – HBM: The Essential AI Ingredient 01:45 – Addressing the Nvidia Supply Chain Rumors 02:30 – Is Memory a Commodity? The Cyclical Risk 03:15 – Calculating Free Cash Flow (FCF) 04:00 – Demand vs. Supply: Why Prices are Rising 05:00 – The Global Fab Expansion: Idaho, NY, & Beyond 06:15 – The $150 Billion CapEx Assumption 07:20 – Micron Valuation: 2026 & 2027 Forecasts 08:00 – Final Thoughts: Still Going Strong?If you found this video useful, please make sure to like and subscribe!*********************************************************Affiliate links that are sprinkled in throughout this video. If something catches your eye and you decide to buy it, we might earn a little coffee money. Thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction!Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal.#Micron #MU #AIInvesting #Semiconductors #HBM #ChipStockInvestor #StockValuation #TechStocks #Nvidia #MemoryTradeNick and Kasey own shares of Micron

Palo Alto Networks (PANW) is facing a volatile market, leading many to ask: is the "SaaS Apocalypse" finally hitting cybersecurity? We break down why the market is hammering the stock despite a clear secular growth trend in the industry.Since Nikesh Aurora took over in 2018, Palo Alto has spent $31 billion on multiple acquisitions to pivot from a simple firewall provider to a cloud and AI security powerhouse. We analyze the recent CyberArk deal, the shift in free cash flow margins, and why the company's platformization strategy is creating a longer payoff cycle for investors.If you are a PANW shareholder or looking for a value entry in cybersecurity, this video covers the essential valuation metrics.Join us on Discord with Semiconductor Insider, sign up on our website: www.chipstockinvestor.com/membershipSupercharge your analysis with AI! Get 15% of your membership with our special link here: https://fiscal.ai/csi/Sign Up For Our Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/b1228c12f284/sign-up-landing-page-short-formIf you found this video useful, please make sure to like and subscribe!*********************************************************Affiliate links that are sprinkled in throughout this video. If something catches your eye and you decide to buy it, we might earn a little coffee money. Thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction!Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal.#PaloAltoNetworks #PANW #Cybersecurity #Investing #StockMarket #TechStocks #AI #SaaS #CloudSecurityNick and Kasey own shares of PANW

The CapEx holiday of the 2010s is officially over. After a decade of stagnant infrastructure investment, we've hit an inflection point with US manufacturing finally pulling out of a three-year slump. In January 2026, the PMI moved above 50%, signaling that customer orders are finally outpacing production—a leading indicator that the broader economy is heating up.In this video, we move past the headlines to see which companies are actually bucking the trend of normal seasonality. From diversified IDMs like Microchip and TI seeing sequential increases to fabless leaders like Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) taking market share, the recovery is broadening out. Whether it's grid infrastructure through specialists like Littelfuse or the high-voltage data center architecture of the future, the auto and industrial end markets are finally signaling a return to growth.Join us on with Semiconductor Insider, sign up on our website: www.chipstockinvestor.com/membershipSupercharge your analysis with AI! Get 15% of your membership with our special link here: https://fiscal.ai/csi/Sign Up For Our Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/b1228c12f284/sign-up-landing-page-short-form

The software apocalypse continues to rattle the market, but AppLovin (APP) is currently operating like a financial "cheat code." Despite the recent stock dip, the core digital ad business is showing explosive growth, with Q1 2026 guidance projecting a 52% jump in revenue. Between the insane 84% adjusted EBITDA margins and the expansion of their Axon 2.0 AI algorithms, this business is converting cash to the bottom line at an incredible rate.We're breaking down the reverse DCF to see if the current price is a steal or a trap. With free cash flow nearly doubling to $4 billion and a balance sheet that is back to parity, the black box of AI-driven advertising is proving its value. If you're looking for a long-term compounding machine that thrives as AI makes content creation easier, watch until the end to see why we might nibble if the stock hits the low $400s.Join us on Discord with Semiconductor Insider, sign up on our website: www.chipstockinvestor.com/membershipSupercharge your analysis with AI! Get 15% of your membership with our special link here: https://fiscal.ai/csi/Sign Up For Our Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/b1228c12f284/sign-up-landing-page-short-formChapters:00:00 The Software Apocalypse Continues 02:15 Q1 2026 Guidance: 52% Revenue Growth 03:30 EBITDA Margins 04:45 CEO Adam Feroughi on the AI Advantage 05:50 The Axon 2.0 Black Box 07:00 Free Cash Flow Doubled08:30 Share Repurchases & Balance Sheet Health 09:45 Reverse DCF: Finding the Fair Value 11:00 Our Strategy: Buying the Dip?If you found this video useful, please make sure to like and subscribe!*********************************************************Affiliate links that are sprinkled in throughout this video. If something catches your eye and you decide to buy it, we might earn a little coffee money. Thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction!Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal.#AppLovin #APP #StockMarket #AI #Investing #GrowthStocks #DigitalAds #FiscalAINick and Kasey own shares of AppLovin

Astera Labs (ALAB) recently crushed earnings estimates and provided strong guidance for Q1 2026, yet the stock remains down. Why is the market hesitating?In this video, we break down the Q4 financials for Astera Labs and preview what to expect from Credo Technology (CRDO). We discuss the competitive landscape regarding re-timers and AECs, but more importantly, we expose a significant red flag regarding customer concentration, the Amazon warrant deal.www.chipstockinvestor.com/membershipIs Astera Labs buying revenue at the expense of shareholders? We also run a Reverse DCF valuation to see what growth is priced in at $144/share. https://mailchi.mp/b1228c12f284/sign-up-landing-page-short-formwww.chipstockinvestor.com/membershipSupercharge your analysis with AI! Get 15% of your membership with our special link here: https://fiscal.ai/csi/Sign Up For Our Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/b1228c12f284/sign-up-landing-page-short-formIf you found this video useful, please make sure to like and subscribe!Chapters:00:00 - Astera Labs: Great Earnings, Bad Stock Action 01:10 - Credo & Astera: The High Growth Dilemma 01:58 - Retimers & Competition (Broadcom, Marvell) 03:00 - M&A Strategy: Consolidating the Market 03:52 - Astera Labs Q4 Financial Review05:14 - Credo Technology Preview: Niche Focus vs. Breadth 06:33 - The Major Risk: Customer Concentration (Hyperscalers) 07:29 - Explained: The Amazon Warrant Deal (Buying Revenue?) 10:18 - Astera Labs Valuation: Reverse DCF at $144 11:27 - Conclusion: Why These Are "Babysitter" Stocks*********************************************************Affiliate links that are sprinkled in throughout this video. If something catches your eye and you decide to buy it, we might earn a little coffee money. Thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction!Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal.#AsteraLabs #ALAB #Credo #CRDO #Semiconductors #StockMarket #Investing #ChipStockInvestor #AIfinanceNick and Kasey own shares of Credo

In April 2025, we made a strategic move to trim our Pinterest position and buy into Reddit. Now, two years into its life as a public company, we're looking at the data: Can Reddit survive the AI software apocalypse and clear the high growth hurdle the market is pricing in? We break down Reddit's 2025 year-end performance, including a staggering 70% year-over-year revenue growth. However, beneath the surface, there are concerns—from the sunset of key user metrics to stock-based compensation that currently eats up 16% of revenue.We also take you inside our new research platform, Semi Insider, to run a Reverse DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) to find the "fair value" for RDDT stock today.Join us on Discord with Semiconductor Insider, sign up on our website: www.chipstockinvestor.com/membershipSupercharge your analysis with AI! Get 15% of your membership with our special link here: https://fiscal.ai/csi/Sign Up For Our Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/b1228c12f284/sign-up-landing-page-short-formChapters:0:00 — Why We Swapped Pinterest for Reddit 1:02 — AI Licensing: The "Sidecar" Business Model 2:15 — Revenue Breakdown: Ads vs. Data Licensing 3:20 — Scaling the Network Effect & International Growth 4:01 — The Metric Shift5:10 — Q1 2026 Outlook: 53% Growth? 6:30 — Stock-Based Compensation & Dilution 8:40 — The $1 Billion Buyback Program 9:45 — Reverse DCF: Calculating Reddit's Fair Value If you found this video useful, please make sure to like and subscribe!*********************************************************Affiliate links that are sprinkled in throughout this video. If something catches your eye and you decide to buy it, we might earn a little coffee money. Thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction!Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal.#RedditStock #RDDT #Investing #TechStocks #StockAnalysis #SemiInsider #ChipStockInvestor #GrowthInvesting #AI #FinanceNick and Kasey own shares of Reddit

Is AI eating the software industry, or is it just making it more powerful?In this episode, we sit down with Braden Dennis, CEO and co-founder of Fiscal.ai, to discuss the shift happening in enterprise SaaS. If you've watched our videos, you know we use Fiscal's charts every single day to analyze the markets, so it was great to get Braden's perspective on where the industry is headed.We dive deep into the software apocalypse narrative and whether it's based in reality or just a market overreaction. Braden explains why maintaining software is getting easier, how his engineering team has achieved 10x productivity, and why internal AI solutions are coming for the "busy work" that off-the-shelf SaaS can't solve.Join us on Discord with Semiconductor Insider, sign up on our website: www.chipstockinvestor.com/membershipSupercharge your analysis with AI! Get 15% of your membership with our special link here: https://fiscal.ai/csi/Sign Up For Our Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/b1228c12f284/sign-up-landing-page-short-formChapters:0:00 – Is AI Eating Software? 1:12 – Meet Braden Dennis, CEO of Fiscal.ai 1:45 – Why Software Engineering Has Changed Completely 2:40 – 2026 Outlook: Opportunities vs. Traps 3:30 – What Software is Becoming Obsolete? 4:30 – Automating the "Unsolvable" Internal Busy Work 5:15 – "Intelligence in the Sky": A New Data Layer 6:10 – Pricing Power Debate: Will Clients Pay Less? 7:45 – Broadcom & VMware Case Study8:55 – Comparing the Software Correction to 2018 Semiconductors 11:45 – Lessons on Market Cyclicality 13:55 – The Problem with Late-Stage Venture Capital 16:00 – Why We Need More Tech IPOs 18:10 – The Incentive for Founders to Stay Private 20:00 – Evaluating Figma and Adobe in the AI Age21:30 – ServiceNow: Narrative vs. Financial Reality 22:45 – Final Verdict: Being Selective in a Sell-offIf you found this video useful, please make sure to like and subscribe!*********************************************************Affiliate links that are sprinkled in throughout this video. If something catches your eye and you decide to buy it, we might earn a little coffee money. Thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction!Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal. #AI #SaaS #SoftwareStocks #Investing #ChipStockInvestor #FiscalAI #TechInvesting #ServiceNow #stockmarket2026 Nick and Kasey own shares of Adobe, Figma, ServiceNow

Tesla is embarking on a shift in business operations, and the implications for the semiconductor industry could be significant. In this video, we examine Tesla's 2026 capital expenditure (CapEx) outlook through the lens of operating leverage.With a projected $20 billion in CapEx for 2026—not including the proposed TeraFab, Tesla is moving further away from being just an automaker and closer to becoming a vertically integrated robotics and AI powerhouse. What does this mean for current suppliers like Nvidia, Qualcomm, and Micron? We break down the risks of Tesla shoring up its own supply chain and how it could shift pricing power back away from the chipmakers.Join us on Discord with Semiconductor Insider, sign up on our website: www.chipstockinvestor.com/membershipSupercharge your analysis with AI! Get 15% of your membership with our special link here: https://fiscal.ai/csi/Sign Up For Our Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/b1228c12f284/sign-up-landing-page-short-formIf you found this video useful, please make sure to like and subscribe!*********************************************************Affiliate links that are sprinkled in throughout this video. If something catches your eye and you decide to buy it, we might earn a little coffee money. Thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction!Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal. #Tesla #TSLA #Semiconductors #ChipStocks #Investing #Optimus #AI #SupplyChain #FinanceEducation

Is it too late to buy the "Nvidia of Networking"?Lumentum (LITE) and Fabrinet (FN) have been on an absolute tear, with Lumentum up nearly 600% in the last year. Today, we break down why the AI data center build-out is shifting toward optical and silicon photonics—and which of these two companies is the better long-term play for your portfolio.In this video, we cover:-- The Supply Chain: How Lumentum (the IDM) and Fabrinet (the contract manufacturer) work together.-- Financial Deep Dive: Why Lumentum's operating margins are exploding (up 1,700 basis points!).-- Future Catalysts: The massive OCS (Optical Circuit Switch) orders coming in late 2026.-- Our Verdict: Why we are personally leaning toward one of these for our "starter positions".Join us on Discord with Semiconductor Insider, sign up on our website: www.chipstockinvestor.com/membershipSupercharge your analysis with AI! Get 15% of your membership with our special link here: https://fiscal.ai/csi/Sign Up For Our Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/b1228c12f284/sign-up-landing-page-short-formChapters:00:00 — AI Networking: The Next 600% Run?01:38 — Why Lumentum is "The Nvidia of Networking"02:00 — Lumentum vs. Fabrinet: The Supply Chain Secret02:30 — The Hardware: Transceivers & Wafers explained03:10 — LITE Earnings: 1,700 Basis Point Margin Jump!04:00 — The Power of Operating Leverage05:10 — Huge 2026/2027 Catalysts (OCS & CPO)06:45 — Fabrinet Deep Dive: A Broader Play?08:45 — Telecom vs. Industrial Laser segments11:00 — Stock Performance Recap12:20 — Our Portfolio Strategy for 2026If you found this video useful, please make sure to like and subscribe!*********************************************************Affiliate links that are sprinkled in throughout this video. If something catches your eye and you decide to buy it, we might earn a little coffee money. Thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction!Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal. #Semiconductors #AI #Lumentum #Fabrinet #Investing #TechStocks #SiliconPhotonics #StockMarket2026 #chipstockinvestor Nick and Kasey own shares of Lumentum and Coherent

We analyze Sandisk's remarkable NVIDIA moment, marked by a 1,000% stock price increase over the past year. Following its 2025 spin-off from Western Digital and the extension of its Flash Ventures partnership with Kioxia through 2034, Sandisk has capitalized on the memory shortage driven by AI data center demand. Sandisk reported a significant revenue beat of over $3 billion and issued a staggering guidance of $4.4 to $4.8 billion for the upcoming quarter—a 170% year-over-year increase. This growth is fueled by powerful operating leverage, with adjusted EPS projected at $13 as rising prices flow directly to the bottom line. How does the valuation look? Watch the video to hear our take. Join us on Discord with Semiconductor Insider, sign up on our website: www.chipstockinvestor.com/membershipSupercharge your analysis with AI! Get 15% of your membership with our special link here: https://fiscal.ai/csi/Sign Up For Our Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/b1228c12f284/sign-up-landing-page-short-formChapters:0:00 Is Sandisk Having an NVIDIA Moment? 0:45 Memory Shortages 2:10 Flash Ventures: The Kioxia Joint Venture Extension 3:30 Revenue Beat and 170% Growth Guidance 4:50 Direct Sales to AI Data Centers vs. NVIDIA Integration 5:50 Earnings Explosion: Why EPS is Hitting $13 6:30 The Two-Edged Sword of Operating Leverage 7:45 Reverse DCF Analysis9:00 The Cyclical Reality10:45 Final Verdict: Commodity vs. Supply Chain KingIf you found this video useful, please make sure to like and subscribe!*********************************************************Affiliate links that are sprinkled in throughout this video. If something catches your eye and you decide to buy it, we might earn a little coffee money. Thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction!Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal.#Sandisk #ChipStockInvestor #Semiconductors #Investing #NAND #TechStocks #StockMarket2026Nick and Kasey own shares of Sandisk

Memory shortages. It's all anyone wants to talk about. Lam Research's plays a pivotal role in addressing the ongoing memory chip shortage and for the AI and data center sectors. We explore Lam Research's position in the semiconductor supply chain, discuss recent financial performance, market share growth, and future revenue projections. Additionally, we analyze the company's strategic advancements in wafer fab equipment, especially in high-bandwidth memory. We also examine the broader memory and semiconductor market dynamics and provide insights into the future growth cycles. Join us on Discord with Semiconductor Insider, sign up on our website: www.chipstockinvestor.com/membershipSupercharge your analysis with AI! Get 15% of your membership with our special link here: https://fiscal.ai/csi/Sign Up For Our Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/b1228c12f284/sign-up-landing-page-short-formChapters:00:00 Memory Shortage02:11 Lam Research's Market Position and Achievements04:20 Future Projections and Market Trends07:50 Revenue Growth and Financial Projections09:01 Reverse DCF Analysis and Investment InsightsIf you found this video useful, please make sure to like and subscribe!*********************************************************Affiliate links that are sprinkled in throughout this video. If something catches your eye and you decide to buy it, we might earn a little coffee money. Thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction!Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal.#LamResearch #LRCX #Semiconductors #ChipStocks #Investing #MemoryShortage #AI #TechStocks #StockMarketAnalysisNick and Kasey own shares of LRCX