Podcasts about monetary policy committee mpc

Due to geopolitical uncertainties and a cautious market response to changes in fiscal policy, UK economic indicators were mixed. Growth slowed in the services sector, with the Purchasing Managers' Index (“PMI”) hitting 52.0, reflecting hesitation from the Autumn Budget and geopolitical influences. Inflation data showed some improvement, especially in goods prices, providing a case for the Bank of England (“BoE”) to consider reducing policy restrictions. Meanwhile, the Monetary Policy Committee (“MPC”) voted towards a BoE rate cut to 4.75% to support confidence. The BoE downplayed the impact of an expansionary fiscal policy, but hinted that budget decisions might lengthen the rate cycle.Stocks featured:John Wood Group, TP ICAP Group and Wizz AirTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management's own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of Ghana (BoG) has cut the rate at which it lends to commercial banks to 27 percent from 29 percent. The Chairman of the committee and Governor of the BoG, Dr. Ernest Addison noted that the action was influenced by favourable economic outlook.

Welcome back to FOREX Focus, your go-to podcast for staying ahead of global currency movements and central bank actions. I'm your host, Adrian Lawrence and today we're diving into a hot topic that's on every currency trader's mind: the Bank of England's expected interest rate cut in Sep 24 In this episode, we'll discuss why this cut is likely, what signals the Bank of England has been sending, and how it might impact the forex market, especially for traders dealing with GBP pairs. So let's get started. For those closely following the Bank of England (BoE), the chatter of a rate cut isn't out of the blue. Several factors are pushing the BoE in this direction. The UK economy has faced consistent challenges this past year, from post-pandemic supply chain issues to rising energy costs, largely exacerbated by geopolitical tensions. However, it's important to note that inflation is now starting to show signs of cooling off, albeit slower than many would hope. With inflation finally edging downward, the BoE is starting to worry less about overheating the economy and more about the sluggish growth that remains. The most recent data shows signs of economic deceleration. Manufacturing and services sectors are slowing, consumer spending is weakening due to high living costs, and unemployment rates are beginning to tick upwards. The BoE's priority now is to avoid a prolonged recession, which could worsen if borrowing costs remain high. That's why markets are widely expecting a cut in interest rates as early as February. Several key figures within the BoE have dropped hints about this possible rate cut. Governor Andrew Bailey, in his recent statements, mentioned that while inflation control remains a priority, the central bank must now consider the broader health of the UK economy. He specifically pointed out that with inflation beginning to cool, the BoE may soon need to adopt a more dovish stance to support growth and employment. Additionally, the latest minutes from the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) reveal a growing divide between hawkish and dovish members. While some argue for maintaining current rates to ensure inflation doesn't rebound, a majority seem to be leaning toward easing monetary conditions. Now, what does all this mean for the forex market? A rate cut typically signals a bearish outlook for a currency, and in this case, it would likely weaken the British pound (GBP). But let's break down what this means for forex traders, particularly those dealing with GBP pairs. GBP/USD: The U.S. Federal Reserve has been more hawkish lately, showing signs of maintaining higher rates longer to curb inflation. If the BoE cuts rates in February, the interest rate differential between the UK and the U.S. could widen. This would make the GBP less attractive compared to the USD, potentially driving down the GBP/USD pair. We could see increased selling pressure on the pound leading up to February, with many traders already positioning themselves for the expected rate cut. EUR/GBP: The European Central Bank (ECB) has also been grappling with inflation but has maintained a relatively steady hand. Visit our Forex Blog

The South African Federation of Trade Unions (SAFTU) calls on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) to cut interest rates. This as The Reserve Bank is expected to keep the repo rate unchanged when it makes its announcement later today. The union in a statement says SARB's decision to hike interest rates to their current high of 11,75% prime lending has significantly increased the financial burden on the working class. for more on this Anne Moosa spoke to SAFTU's spokesperson Trevor Shaku 

In recent months, several significant developments have reshaped the UK property landscape, impacting everything from homebuying costs to prime central London prices and investment opportunities along the Crossrail line. This summary delves into the key changes and trends shaping the market, offering insights for prospective buyers, investors, and industry stakeholders.Homebuyers Face Higher Costs with MDR Abolition Starting June 1, the abolition of Multiple Dwellings Relief (MDR) will lead to higher stamp duty taxes for those purchasing homes with annexes or multiple dwellings. This change is expected to significantly impact the housing market, particularly for properties with additional accommodations. House builders, industry bodies, and investment firms have warned that removing MDR could stifle the market for buying and investing in blocks of flats, potentially resulting in 13,000 to 25,000 fewer homes being built. Critics argue that this policy shift will drive up home prices and limit housing options. Despite the potential drawbacks, the Treasury anticipates raising £385 million annually by 2028-29 due to the MDR abolition. Some buyers have rushed to complete transactions before the deadline, aiming to save on tax costs. Mallorca's Proposed Five-Year Residency Rule In Mallorca, a proposed five-year residency rule is causing unrest among UK expats and potential tourists. Aimed at reducing speculative buying and ensuring long-term commitment to the region, this regulation could significantly impact those looking to make Majorca their home. The island has seen recent protests against tourist overcrowding and calls for more affordable housing, highlighting tensions between the tourism industry and local residents. While these measures might reduce tourism revenue and pose challenges for local businesses, they could foster a more sustainable and balanced approach to tourism in the long run. The future of Majorca's travel landscape remains uncertain as these changes are debated. Interest Rates and Economic Outlook With the Bank of England's rate decision on June 20 and the General Election on July 4, the UK's economic outlook is under close scrutiny. Investec Chief Economist Philip Shaw notes that recent economic data does not strongly support a cut in the Bank rate. Despite a drop in Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation to 2.3% in April, services CPI inflation and private sector pay growth indicate persistent inflationary pressures. Updated inflation and wage data will be released before the next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. While these figures might be more favorable, they may not fully meet the committee's expectations. The Bank of England, operating independently of the government, is likely to keep the Bank rate at 5.25% in June, with potential rate cuts beginning in August. Investec forecasts that as inflation pressures ease, interest rates will gradually decline. The Bank rate is expected to fall to 4.75% by the end of 2024 and to 3.75% by the end of 2025. Changes in the Bank rate influence various financial market interest rates, notably affecting fixed-term mortgage rates and savings rates.Crossrail Postcodes: A Beacon for Property Investors New research indicates that locations with a Crossrail station have largely been protected from the broader decline in London property prices since Crossrail officially opened. Property consultancy Benham and Reeves analyzed house price growth across postcodes home to each of the 41 Crossrail stations, revealing that these areas have seen an average price increase of 3.3% since the line opened. In contrast, property values in the wider local authoritMaximize your property wealth with London Property. Turn challenges into opportunities. With expert knowledge and reach, we tackle the complexities and inefficiencies of the property market with you.

Last week, the Bank of England ("BOE") decided to maintain interest rates at 5.25%. However, two out of nine officials from the Monetary Policy Committee ("MPC") voted in favour of an interest rate cut, demonstrating a more dovish view and increasing market expectations for a rate cut in June. This shift was predominantly driven by macroeconomic forecasts indicating inflation heading back towards its 2% target shortly. The market response was relatively subdued as investors awaited incoming economic data, with two sets of inflation and labour market updates scheduled before the BOE's June interest rate decision. Notably the BOE Governor, Andrew Bailey, also hinted at the possibility of deeper interest rate cuts, highlighting the institution's commitment to addressing economic concerns...Stocks featured:Boohoo Group, IWG and John Wood GroupTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management's own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On this week's AHR Market review.Equity markets rose for the third week in a row as quarter one earnings season draws to close and US markets once again get close to all-time highs.With 90% of S&P 500 companies now having disclosed their earnings for the first quarter, the results have surpassed analyst predictions by a notable 8.5%, marking the most significant positive surprise since the third quarter of 2021. Furthermore, profitability has seen an uptick after facing pressures throughout 2022 and part of 2023, largely due to a moderation in input-cost inflation. Looking at monetary policy, the Bank of England (BoE) opted to maintain its base rate at 5.25%, following a 7-2 majority decision by its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at its recent meeting.Over the week the US equities added around 2% and US technology rose over 1%. Looking to the week ahead, all eyes will be on the US CPI release on Wednesday. That's all for this week's AHR Weekly Podcast. Thank you for listening and for further investment insights head over to ahrprivatewealth.com.

The Public Servants Association (PSA) has urged the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to seriously consider a reduction in interest rates to alleviate the financial pressure on citizens. The PSA's appeal is based on recent observations by economists, highlighting the financial burden on South Africans, particularly public servants, owing to what it calls the South African Reserve Bank's "unnecessary" interest-rate hikes. The PSA said public servants should not be unduly burdened by excessive financial costs, especially when such measures were avoidable, and pointed out that they played a crucial role in the functioning of society. The PSA said it believed that high interest rates were unjustifiable and detrimental to the financial wellbeing of citizens. It pointed out that South Africans were facing multiple financial challenges, exacerbated by the economic strain of the Covid-19 pandemic, and said the recent interest-rate hikes had resulted in an inequitable financial situation. "Lowering interest rates will assist in stabilising the financial security of workers and contribute significantly to the overall economic recovery of South Africa," the PSA said. It further argued that a reduction in interest rates would provide immediate financial relief to workers and other South Africans, while lessening the burden of high debt-servicing costs including making mortgages more affordable. "With the current inflation outlook well within the target range, there is ample room for the MPC to consider a reduction in interest rates without risking inflationary pressures," it said. The PSA explained that economic recovery would be supported as lowering interest rates would encourage spending and investment, which would stimulate economic growth and aid the country's recovery from the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. It added that lower interest rates would also lead to increased business activity, which it said would promote job creation and stability.

Iain Williamson,  chief executive of Old Mutual and Bruce Whitfield delve into the group's annual results. Old Mutual declared a final dividend of 49 cents a share after tax profit attributable to shareholders rose 35% to R7.07 billion.  As expected, interest rates were left unchanged for the fifth consecutive Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. Isaah Mhlanga,  Head of Markets Research at RMB and Bruce Whitfield discuss the implications of this decision on the economy and households.     Shaun Fuchs, CEO and founder at Centennial Schools  shares his career journey, work philosophy and his vision for revolutionising education in SA.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As expected, interest rates were unchanged for the fifth consecutive Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.   Isaah Mhlanga,   Head of Markets Research at RMB, and Bruce Whitfield discuss the implications of this decision on the economy and households. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As expected, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of Ghana has kept its key lending rate to banks at 29%. This means that the cost of borrowing will not change much in the next two and half months, as it averages 32.7% as of February 2024

Despite slowing GDP growth, Bank Negara's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held interest rates at 3% for the fifth consecutive meeting. How is the central bank factoring in economic headwinds into its decision-making and what levers do they have to tackle the weak Ringgit? We discuss this with Adnan Zaylani Mohamad Zahid, Deputy Governor of Bank Negara.

*Key news articles for today*The CBE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is meeting today to decide on interest rates for the first time in 2024. We reiterate our view that the MPC might prefer to keep rates unchanged, as long as stability still prevails on the currency front. Inflation readings have been capitalizing on favorable base effect recently. Besides, we believe any possible hike would be of little benefit compared to its fiscal costs.The Fed left interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting at a 22-year high of 5.25%-5.50%.News have been circulating that a coalition of Emirati companies affiliated with the Emirate of Abu Dhabi agreed with the Egyptian government to buy land in the city of Ras El Hekma on the northwestern coast to establish a project with investments exceeding USD22 billion. However, government sources have reportedly said that there are currently no such agreements concluded with Emirati businessmen.The Cabinet decided to cut funds allocated for investment in the current fiscal year's budget by 15% and push back any new projects until 30 June 2024.The Cabinet greenlit the executive regulations for the law scrapping tax exemptions previously granted to state entities and public-sector companies and projects.Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the IMF said that Egypt's GDP growth rate could increase by 5-6% if the government allows the private sector to play a leading role in Egypt's economy and reconsiders the role of the public sector.The IMF warns that Israel's war on Gaza is “exacerbating an already challenging environment for neighboring countries and beyond," highlighting possible impact on tourism and Suez Canal revenues.Minister of Finance revealed the customs release for 20,500 cars has been completed, as part of the expats' cars initiative, during the period from 30 October 2023 until 29 January 2024, with a total transfer of USD667 million.Member of the Board of Directors of the Federation of Egyptian Industries warned of the repercussions of the stifling crisis facing the industry in Egypt due to the high production costs and the FX shortage,  which caused a decline in production and the halt of expansion plans.CLHO intends to invest around EGP2 billion over 18 months in growth capex, directed to the completion of Phases 1 and 2 of Sky Hospital in East Cairo, the expansion of Cleopatra October in West Cairo, and the expansion of polyclinic activities.EFIH is preparing to acquire a stake in an electronic payments company during February 2024.GBCO plans to expand the introduction of electric cars in the local market during the upcoming period. A delegation from the Indian company ICON visited KIMA's factory in Aswan to prepare for the technical studies of the rehabilitation of the ammonium nitrate production line as well as the warehouses of the final products.  Taqa Arabia's Taqa Power subsidiary Taqa Volt will develop, manage, operate, and maintain nine EV charging stations in New Cairo's Cairo Festival City.The Ministry of Petroleum approved allocating 60 km in Gulf of Suez as two new oil concessions to the General Petroleum Company (GPC). OPEC+ members will review the oil cartel's ongoing production cuts during a Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee today.The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) will be granting HRHO's microfinance arm Tanmeyah the EGP equivalent of up to USD10 million. The CBE denied putting limits on daily cash withdrawals from banks.CNFN's securitization arm, Sarwa, is planning to issue Islamic sukuk worth EGP2.5 billion by the end of February.AIH has finalized the sale of its 99.8% stake in the Arabian International Contracting Company for EGP74.9 million. 

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has decided to keep the repo rate on hold at 8.25%. To unpack this decision, Business Day TV spoke to Koketso Mano, Senior Economist at FNB and Portfolio Manager for Fixed Income at Sanlam Investments, James Turp.

For its final decision of the year, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left South Africa's key interest rate unchanged at 8.25% for a third consecutive meeting, in line with economists' expectations. This comes after annual consumer price inflation leaped to 5.9% in October from 5.4% in September, closing in on the upper end of the SA Reserve Bank's targeted band of 3% to 6% and marking a third month of increases. That figure was higher than economists expected. "Risks to the inflation outlook still are still assessed to the upside," Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago said in Pretoria on Thursday. The decision to keep interest rates on hold was unanimous, but the committee stands ready to act should risks materialise, Kganyago said. Inflation has been accelerating over the past three months, the opposite of what the MPC would like to see - and there is the added risk of what South Africa's latest round of port challenges could do to prices in the coming weeks, said Angelika Goliger, EY Africa Chief Economist, referring to Transnet's delays at various harbours. Kganyago also noted the lengthy delays and said the operation of ports and rail "have become a serious constraint". For consumers, their loans won't cost them more over the festive season, but rates are at 14-year highs and most economists don't expect any chance for cuts until at least March next year. HSBC was less optimistic than others and said the MPC may only cut rates from September. "The near-term risk is for interest rates to edge higher, should the SA Reserve Bank's inflation projections start to deteriorate, lowering the real policy rate and delaying the return to the 4.5% midpoint target,'" HSBC said. The Reserve Bank's gross domestic product outlook improved, with it forecasting 0.8% growth this year, up from 0.7%, and increased it to 1.2% next year. This was after spending by firms, households, public corporations and general government remained positive in real terms on an annual basis; the disposable income of households being expected to grow, albeit slowly; the investment forecast for the year was revised up to 7.7% in September and credit growth to households and corporates slowed, but remained positive. "At the current repurchase rate level, policy is restrictive, consistent with the inflation outlook and elevated inflation expectations. Decisions will continue to be data dependent and sensitive to the balance of risks to the outlook," Kganyago said.

Annual consumer price inflation (CPI) climbed to 5.9% in October from 5.4% in September, edging closer to the outside of the SA Reserve Bank's (Sarb's) targeted band of 3% to 6%, marking a third consecutive increase. The figure was higher than economists expected. "South African headline inflation jolts the market by printing much higher than the consensus had expected in October. Although fuel price pressures were widely anticipated, no-one had forecast a spike back in year-on-year headline inflation, almost to the upper end of the Sarb's inflation target," Razia Khan, managing director and chief economist for Africa and Middle East at Standard Chartered Bank, said. The main contributors to the increase were food and non-alcoholic beverages, which rose 8.7% year-on-year, housing and utilities, transport, and miscellaneous goods and services. CPI is now at its highest level since May this year and will be one of the factors the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting will have to consider as it makes its final decision on interest rates on Thursday afternoon. The consensus among economists before the CPI number was that the MPC will keep rates on hold at 8.25%, a 14-year high, with relief only coming in the second or third quarters of next year. The month-on-month change in CPI was 0.9%. Earlier this month, Elize Kruger, an independent economist, said a large drop in the cost of petrol due in December may mean the Reserve Bank will "look through'" any blip in inflation numbers.

Following a three-week summer break, Bondcast is back. Host Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Jan Nevruzi to catch up on what happened while we were away. Looking ahead, they discuss prospects for next week's European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, changes in the US yield curve, and how many times the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) minutes refer to wage growth – which is a lot.Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they're available – and hit the ‘like' button so it's easier for others to find. And if you have any questions you'd like answered on the podcast, reach out directly or on Bloomberg – or email bondcast@natwest.com. NB: This was recorded on 7 September 2023.For any terms used please refer to this glossary:  https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

Guest: Miyelani Mkhabela, EconomistSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Lunedì 31 ottobre scorso è arrivata la comunicazione ufficiale del Mef sulla cessazione dell'esclusiva concessa a Certares, Air France-Klm e Delta per la cessione del controllo di Ita. Potrebbe quindi tornare in scena la cordata tra Msc-Lufthansa che aveva partecipato alla gara la scorsa estate, e Indigo Partners che aveva manifestato interesse lo scorso marzo. Intanto c'è attesa per l'8 novembre, giorno per il quale è in calendario l'assemblea dei soci di Ita che darà il via libera all'aumento di capitale da 400 milioni. Si tratta della seconda tranche del finanziamento complessivo da 1,35 miliardi di euro già autorizzato dall'Ue e suddiviso in tre tranche: 700 milioni per il 2021, 400 per il 2022 e 250 per il 2023. Nell'odg di quel giorno è previsto anche la revoca dell'incarico di presidente ad Alfredo Altavilla. Infine da indiscrezioni nell'assemblea del prossimo 8 novembre all'ordine del giorno ci sarebbe il cambiamento dello statuto della compagnia per la revisione del numero minimo di consiglieri, che da sette passerebbero a cinque per iniziare ad allineare il cda verso la privatizzazione. Ne parliamo con Giorgio Pogliotti de il Sole 24 Ore. Indice Cosulich. Furto del carico per la nave bloccata a Mariupol. Questa mattina sono salpate sette navi cariche di prodotti agricoli dai porti dell'Ucraina nell'ambito dell'accordo sul grano firmato lo scorso 22 luglio a Istanbul. È la conseguenza del ritorno della Russia nell'accordo di quest'estate dopo una sospensione di quattro giorni. Le navi sono state caricate con 290mila tonnellate di prodotti alimentari e sono dirette verso paesi europei e asiatici. Rimane però bloccata la nave del nostro Augusto Cosulich che negli scorsi giorni ha addirittura subito un furto al proprio cargo di 14mila tonnellate di bramme. Nel frattempo un pool di istituti composto da Crédit Agricole Italia, nel ruolo di Arranger, Lender e Banca Agente, e UniCredit, Cdp, Banco Bpm nei ruoli di Arranger e Lender, ha erogato un finanziamento di 29,5 milioni di euro, assistito dalla Garanzia Sace, a Fratelli Cosulich per la costruzione di una nave gasiera. Approfondiamo il tema con Augusto Cosulich, l'agente marittimo genovese, presidente e amministratore delegato della "Fratelli Cosulich". BoE: tassi a top da 2008, attesa recessione "per periodo prolungato" La Bank of England prevede "un outlook molto problematico per l'economia britannica, con una recessione per un periodo prolungato e l'inflazione a livelli elevati sopra il 10% nel breve termine". Questo anche a causa della contrazione dei redditi reali a causa dell'aumento dei costi dell'energia globale, cosa che ha un impatto negativo sui consumi e sulla spesa delle famiglie. La Banca centrale britannica ha alzato i tassi di interesse di 75 punti base, il rialzo maggiore dal 1989, portandoli dal 2,25% al 3%, il livello più alto da novembre 2008. In particolare, come si legge nel documento diffuso al termine della riunione della Monetary Policy Committee (Mpc), il Pil del Regno Unito e' atteso in calo nel 2023 (-1,9% a fine anno) e nel primo semestre 2024, per chiudere l'anno a -0,1% e risalire a +0,7% a fine 2025. La Boe prevede una fase "problematica" protratta, evocando la recessione più lunga della storia recente del Paese fin dagli anni '20 - ossia da quando si registrano i dati sul Pil - sebbene non la più pesante in termini di percentuali. Giorgia Scaturro de Il Sole 24 Ore.

Glasgow has become the first city in the UK to officially adopt a feminist town-planning-approach. Emma Barnett speaks to the woman behind the proposal Scottish Green Councillor Holly Bruce and the author of ‘Feminist City' Leslie Kern. What's a feminist city look like and what changes can we expect to see in Glasgow. One in five female doctors say they have considered early retirement due to menopause symptoms. A new report warns that without better support there could be ‘an exodus' of female doctors from the NHS. Emma talks to Dame Jane Dacre, President of the Medical Protection Society, a not-for-profit protection organisation for healthcare professionals, who conducted the survey. Plus, Dr Nadira Awal, a GP who specialises in Women's Health. The Treasury has warned of "inevitable" tax rises as Prime Minister Rishi Sunak seeks to fill a "black hole" in public finances. They agreed "tough decisions" were needed on tax rises, as well as on spending. The Treasury gave no details but said "everybody would need to contribute more in tax in the years ahead". So how did we get here, what are the changes announced in a couple of weeks' time likely to be and how will they affect you? We hear from two women in the know Claer Barratt the consumer editor at the Financial Times and Dame DeAnne Julius a Fellow in Global Economy and Finance at Chatham House, and a founder member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England Plus Jan Etherington the writer of Radio 4's comedy Conversations from a Long Marriage joins Emma to discuss the highs and lows of bickering. Producer Beverley Purcell Presenter Emma Barnett

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of Ghana (BoG) has increased the Policy Rate by 250 basis point to 24.5%. This is the highest policy rate increase since 2017.

PolicyWTF: See No Evil, Read No Evil, Hear No EvilThis section looks at egregious public policies. Policies that make you go: WTF, Did that really happen?— Pranay KotasthaneEarlier this week, I stumbled on this headline in the Business Standard: "Remove price cap and channel bundling restrictions: Broadcasters tell TRAI”. For someone writing a weekly newsletter on Indian public policy, price controls are a gift that keeps on giving. Naturally, I went down this rabbit hole.For context, read this consultation paper. Under the New Regulatory Framework 2017, there are price caps on channel bundles, individual channels that are part of bundles, and the overall package of standard-definition channels. Once this 2017 order came into force, broadcasters smartly kept the popular sports channels out of the channel bundles. The aim was to price them high, thereby cross-subsidising other channels. Further, some providers included these sports channels in bundles at a discounted rate so that they could be packaged with other trashy channels. Not surprising. And now, TRAI wants to reduce the price cap on individual channels that can be part of a bundle to ₹12 from ₹19 per month. Mind-boggling, no?The consultation paper is quite well-written, to be honest. It makes me wonder the extent to which state capacity is applied to come up with price controls. This instance got me thinking about how government restrictions have shaped today’s media environment in India. Let’s have a look at the three major types: video, radio, and written media. How OTT (Over-the-top) became TOT (The-Only-Thing)The same TRAI consultation paper highlights that OTT platforms (SonyLiv, HotStar, etc.) are displacing traditional TV. Anecdotally too, this shift is quite obvious. So why is it that there’s good Indian content on OTT platforms, while the old news channels seem to be stuck in a rut? Government regulations are one big reason. There are no price caps on OTT platforms, allowing them to make investments, create niche content, and recover the investments at an appropriate price. In contrast, TV channel prices are controlled by the government since 2004. News channels, in particular, have degraded the most. Writing in Hindustan Times in 2017, Ashok Malik traced the cause to (surprise! surprise!) price caps again:“As per the TRAI tariff order of 2016, the price ceiling for a news channel is Rs 5 per month. In contrast the price ceiling for a general entertainment channel is Rs 12 per month.Consider what this means. In theory, the general entertainment channel could be re-running old soaps (cost of content: zero). The news channel would be required to constantly generate fresh content. Even so, the former is allowed to charge more than double what the latter is able to. Besides a general entertainment channel is always likely to get more subscribers. So it is a double hit for anybody seeking to build a serious news channel.Over time news channel owners have simply given up, and decided to take the route of reality TV. Today, with the sheer volume of free – occasionally dubious and sometimes outright fake – content available online, one wonders if the news business can ever be rescued in India.”Not that general entertainment channels have fared much better. Broadband internet has now made subscription easier, and the people have voted with their feet, remotes, and phones. At present, TRAI no longer caps the prices of individual channels, on the condition that they are not included in any bundle. But that’s hardly a respite when enough damage has already been done.Radio SilenceThe case of another broadcast medium, the FM radio, is also instructive. The kiss of death here is a ban on FM channels broadcasting news or current affairs. Observe how the government justified pre-censorship in the Supreme Court in 2017:“Broadcasting of news by these stations/channel may pose a possible security risk as there is no mechanism to monitor the contents of news bulletin of every such stations. As these stations/channels are run mainly by NGO/other small organisation and private operators, several anti-national/radical elements within the country can misuse it for propagating their own agenda.”Need I say more? This is the reason why all our FM radio channels play mind-numbing songs, spoofs, and call pranks on loop. While some niche content has moved to podcasts, a lot of current affairs content is now sought after on non-English YouTube channels. As for “radical elements within the country can misuse it for propagating their own agenda”, that has been turbocharged by one-to-many communication on Twitter, WhatsApp, Facebook, etc. The Pen is Mightier than its SubscribersNow let’s come to the curious case of print and online media. There are no price caps on newspaper and magazine prices. Not that it wasn’t attempted. But in a 1961 Sakal Papers vs Union of India judgment, the Supreme Court, citing Article 19(1), declared unconstitutional a law that tried to connect prices to the number of pages published.And so, India has an amazingly high number of newspapers and magazines— nearly a lakh registered ones, increasing year on year. But that’s where the party ends. Print media is disproportionately dependent on advertisement revenue and not reader subscriptions. Newspapers are primarily pamphlets, with a bit of news and opinion thrown in.The reasons for this low equilibrium are not very clear. Raju Narisetti contends in a recent book Media Capture: How Money, Digital Platforms, and Governments Control the News (edited by Anya Schiffrin) that the ‘invitation pricing’ model introduced by the Bennett Coleman & Company Ltd. (BCCL) in 1994 created a de-facto price cap for other players. However, that still doesn’t explain the absence of niche, small, and subscription-fuelled newspapers. Magazines do slightly better. I suspect the low purchasing power of Indians when newspapers were all the rage, can explain to an extent the inertia to pay more for reading news. Whatever the reasons, it works well for India’s governments, for they are the biggest advertisers in newspapers. Mere threats of cancelling advertisement contracts become powerful means to exert influence on the content and tone of newspapers. Nevertheless, online media has shown that new revenue models are possible. In the pandemic, most newspapers took their online portals behind paywalls. There’re also many subscriber-only portals catering to special audiences. But how can you keep the government away? RBI’s new rules on auto-debit of recurring payments led to the cancellation of subscriptions and a decline in revenue. (Showing small mercies, the RBI this week decided to raise the e-mandate limit to ₹15,000 earlier this week.)All in all, if you want to ask why our media environment is the way it is, tracking government regulations is a good place to begin the search. TV and Radio, and to a lesser extent print media, are all victims of seemingly well-intentioned yet counter-productive government regulations. India Policy Watch: Inflation, Growth & StabilityInsights on burning policy issues in India- RSJWe are back to discussing macroeconomy here. This week, in its scheduled bi-monthly review, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted unanimously to increase the repo rate by 50 bps (100 bps = 1 percentage point) to 4.90 per cent. It also stayed firm on withdrawing its accommodative policy stance to tame inflation going forward. From the Governor’s press release:“Let me now explain the MPC’s rationale for its decisions on the policy rate and the stance. The protracted war in Europe and the accompanying sanctions have kept global commodity prices elevated across the board. This is exerting sustained upward pressure on consumer price inflation, well beyond the targets in many economies. The ongoing war is also turning out to be a dampener for global trade and growth. The faster pace of monetary policy normalisation undertaken by systemic advanced economies (AEs) is leading to heightened volatility in global financial markets. This is reflected in sharp corrections in major equity markets, sizeable swings in sovereign bond yields, US dollar appreciation, capital outflows from EMEs and even from some AEs. The EMEs are also witnessing depreciation of their currencies. Globally, stagflation concerns are growing and are amplifying the volatility in global financial markets. This is feeding back into the real economy and further clouding the outlook.”To put this in context, we have had an almost 100 bps increase in repo rate in about a month. Short-term rates in the market have already moved up by about 200 bps in the last six months. The impact of these will begin to pinch. And yet, inflation remains above 7 per cent and is likely to stay there for a while. There’s been a coordinated response between the government and the central bank in the recent past including a reduction in excise duties on fuel. Some external factors like the lifting of the palm oil exports by Indonesia and a likely good monsoon also might help moderate inflation during the year. But the 6 per cent upper limit of the inflation target range will be breached for most of the year. The Ukraine war and its repercussions on supply chains and commodities have kept prices elevated. The speed of monetary policy normalisation by the developed world has meant the dollar has appreciated sharply, equity markets have fallen across and capital has flown out of emerging markets. The statement by the Governor acknowledged these issues and summarised its priorities (italicised by me below):“Experience teaches us that preserving price stability is the best guarantee to ensure lasting growth and prosperity. Our actions today will impart further credibility to our medium-term inflation target, which is the central tenet of a flexible inflation targeting framework. India’s recovery is proceeding apace, offering us space for an orderly policy shift. While we will continuously assess the evolving situation to tailor our responses, our actions must demonstrate the commitment to keep inflation and inflationary expectations under check. Therefore, monitoring and assessing inflation pressures and balancing risks to growth will be crucial for judging the appropriate policy path as we move ahead. ……Given the elevated uncertainties of the current period, we have remained dynamic and pragmatic rather than being bound by stereotypes and conventions. As the Reserve Bank works tirelessly in its pursuit of macro-financial stability, I am reminded of what Mahatma Gandhi said long ago: If we want to overtake the storm that is about to burst, we must make the boldest effort to sail full steam ahead.”Nothing new there on priorities. For any central bank, they remain to manage the interplay between - price volatility, growth and macro-financial stability. This is an equilibrium hard to locate in normal, calmer weather. In uncertain times like today, it is a gigantic headache. We will dig a bit deeper to understand the variables that RBI will have to deal with in handling these three priorities during the year. First, let’s take inflation. As I mentioned above, the global risks to inflation will remain elevated with high crude oil and commodity prices and continuing supply bottlenecks for the next couple of quarters. The more interesting point here is that the input cost spikes haven’t yet been passed on to consumers in India. You can take a look at the declared results of the Jan-Apr quarter for listed companies to draw this conclusion. As this gets passed through eventually, inflation will keep pushing upwards. The opening up of the high contact services sector is almost complete now, notwithstanding the recent spike in Covid cases in parts of India. So, there is still the impact of services inflation to show up. Globally, central banks have made an about-turn on their earlier views of this inflation being transient. India is no different. The inflation expectations now show a secular upward trend and this is reflected in various surveys like PMI and BIES. Like always, the lower-income bands are starting to voice their concern about prices because it materially affects their lives. Price rise in India is a politically sensitive topic and as much as this government is politically dominant with the opposition nowhere in sight, it is difficult to see how it will remain unfazed by it. An important point to also consider here is the unique K-shaped recovery that’s happened in India post-pandemic. We have spoken about it a few times earlier. This has meant there is further concentration of total consumption among the top 10-15 per cent of India. The problem with this is that it leads to stickiness in prices and wages. This creamy layer of consumers has a low marginal propensity to consume and that combined with the large cushion of savings with them means there isn’t a quick demand-side response to the rising prices in India. Also, a useful question to ask is what is the impact on growth because of a change in real interest rate in India? Is there any historical evidence to find a relation between the two? A rough rule of thumb is that a 100 bps change in real interest rate could lead to a 20 bps drop in expected growth rate ( a summary of a 2013 paper by RBI that concludes this is at the end of this article). This suggests RBI won’t be worried about growth slowdown anytime soon as it raises rates. The government won’t be worried too. Why? Because there is a global slowdown and it can always point to China struggling with its own lockdowns. In any case, we have seen a 4 per cent growth rate just before the pandemic and that had no impact on the popularity of the government. The government will be willing to trade growth for lower inflation. So, the front-loading of interest rate hikes, as seen in the last month, will continue. My guess is, cumulatively, we will have another 100 bps rate hike by the end of this year.  Second, let’s look at growth. The FY23 growth forecast has moderated from 9+ per cent about two quarters back to about 7-7.5 per cent range in most estimates. However, so far the high-frequency indicators of growth are holding up well suggesting robust economic activity. On almost every indicator - from fuel consumption, cement and sale production, exports, IIP, e-way bills or GST - we are up by a significant margin from the pre-pandemic levels (20-30 per cent in most cases). Credit offtake has also been strong in the retail loans segment so far. The recent rate hikes and the correction in the equity market will have an impact on this but we will have to wait and see how soon the slowdown in consumption will show up in numbers. My guess is it will take some time because of the nature of the consumption pyramid in India. There is also spillover effect of the US Fed's action on rate hikes on India. Will India be forced to mirror Fed’s moves? The inflation in the US is at a historic 40-year high and the economy is running at almost full employment. So supply disruptions apart, there are strong demand factors impacting inflation there. In India, there is some overheating in the labour market, especially in the technology space but we are far from any kind of tightening. It will be useful to bring in Taylor’s rule here to understand the likely monetary policy response. From Investopedia:“Taylor's rule is essentially a forecasting model used to determine what interest rates should be in order to shift the economy toward stable prices and full employment. The Taylor rule was invented and published from 1992 to 1993 by John Taylor, a Stanford economist, who outlined the rule in his precedent-setting 1993 study "Discretion vs. Policy Rules in Practice."Taylor's equation looks like:r = p + 0.5y + 0.5(p - 2) + 2Where:r = nominal fed funds ratep = the rate of inflationy = the percent deviation between current real GDP and the long-term linear trend in GDP In simpler terms, this equation says that the Fed will adjust its fed funds rate target by an equally weighted average of the gap between actual inflation and the Fed's desired rate of inflation (assumed to be 2%) and the gap between observed real GDP and a hypothetical target GDP at a constant linear growth rate (calculated by Taylor at 2.2% from approximately 1984 to 1992). This means that the Fed will raise its target fed funds rate when inflation rises above 2% or real GDP growth rises above 2.2%, and lower the target rate when either of these falls below their respective targets.”The current weights for India are 1.2 for inflation and 0.5 for growth while the growth weight for the US might be close to zero. Also, remember we didn’t use the fiscal tools as liberally as the US during the pandemic. The US treasury balance sheet expanded by more than a quarter on the back of the stimulus to prop up the economy in the last two years. We have a very different reality. Of course, there will be some defence of the Rupee that will be needed as the actions of the central banks of the developed markets strengthens the US Dollar. But beyond those temporary shocks of investors looking for a safe haven and creating currency volatility, there should be no real reasons why the MPC should follow the lead of the Fed's response to inflation in the US.Lastly, how will this expedited, front-loaded rate hike actions impact the macroeconomic stability especially of the financial sector? As we have already seen, the transmission of interest rate hikes has happened with speed. Most banks have lost no time in resetting their rates. Also, remember the majority of small business loans to the MSME sector and mortgage loans in India are now linked to repo rates (or some external benchmarks like 30-day T-bills). If the global growth slows and exports weaken and if the large corporations pass on their input cost burden to the customers or their vendors, we might see stress building up in the system among smaller borrowers. This is a lead indicator to be watched although the repo rates after the latest round of hikes are still about 150 bps below where they were in 2018-19. This isn’t a scenario like in the US or UK where the interest rates are at multi-decadal highs. Some prudence on part of borrowers and a bit of flexibility in restructuring loans by Banks aided by the RBI should help the system see through this phase. On the balance, I see the CPI settling at about 5 per cent in four quarters from now. The “neutral” real interest rate should be about 1.5 per cent which would mean a repo rate of about 6.5 per cent. My estimate is that’s where we will end up from the current 4.9 per cent level in about 12 months. That’s when any option of moving back to an accommodative stance will start looking viable. The RBI will be walking on eggshells managing the multiple trade-offs between growth, inflation and macroeconomic stability during this time. Through a happy coming together of circumstances, India is placed relatively better than most economies at this moment. We should avoid any misadventures at this time, political or economic. That’s not a lot to ask for, I hope. Postscript: Here’s the paper from the RBI website - “Real Interest Rate Impact on Investment and Growth – What the Empirical Evidence for India Suggests?”. It is a good empirical study about how much growth sacrifice should be needed to tame inflationary pressure. From its abstract: “Monetary policy is often expected to adopt a pro-growth stance in a phase of prolonged slowdown in growth and sluggish investment activities. Sacrificing inflation, i.e. lowering nominal policy rate even when inflation persists at a high level, is a convenient means to lower real interest rates, which in turn could be seen as a pro-growth stance of monetary policy. This paper, using both firm-level and macroeconomic data, and alternative methodologies - such as panel regression, VAR, Quantile regression and simple OLS – finds that for 100 bps increase in real interest rate, investment rate may decline by about 50 bps and GDP growth may moderate by about 20 bps. The empirically estimated sensitivity of investment and growth to changes in real interest rate suggests that if the RBI can lower real lending rates, it can also stimulate growth. Review of literature highlights that a central bank can lower real interest rates either through financial repression or by not responding aggressively to inflation while raising the nominal policy rates in response to inflation. Empirical estimates for India indicate that RBI’s monetary policy response to inflation has not been aggressive, and as a result the Fisher effect –i.e. one for one response of interest rate to inflation that could leave the real rate constant – does not hold. Thus, even when a high nominal interest rate may often signal that monetary policy stance is tight, because of higher inflation and absence of Fisher effect, lower real interest rate may actually be growth supportive. In India, real lending rates in recent years have been generally lower than the levels seen during the high growth phase before the global crisis. But lower real rates in the post-crisis period have coincided with sluggish investment and GDP growth. This is due to the fact that while real rates are lower, marginal productivity of capital, or expected return on new investment has also declined, which has dampened the expected positive impact of lower real rates on investment. In such a scenario, one policy option could be to lower real rates even more, by raising inflation tolerance, i.e. lowering nominal policy interest rate even when high inflation persists or inflation expectations remain high. This paper, however, provides robust empirical justification against any policy of lowering policy interest rates when inflation persists above a threshold level of 6 per cent. The beneficial impact of lower real rates on growth that may be achieved through higher inflation tolerance is more than offset by the harmful effect of high inflation, particularly when it exceeds a threshold level of 6 per cent.”Matsyanyaaya: Dictatorship and Democracy in Israel and PakistanBig fish eating small fish = Foreign Policy in action— Pranay KotasthaneNews reports suggest that Pakistan’s military dictator-turned-president-turned-politician Pervez Musharraf is in a critical medical condition. While I have no good things to say about the man, I was reminded of a post I’d written in 2017 which asked: despite their similarities, why has Pakistan had bouts of military dictatorship rule, while Israel has steadfastly retained electoral democracy?The two religious States — Israel and Pakistan—were both created for the explicit purpose of securing a homeland for religious minorities. Given their preoccupation with security, the military-security establishment occupied a key position in the politics of the two States. Yet, what can explain this fundamental difference: while Pakistan has had long periods of rule by a military dictatorship, Israel has steadfastly retained electoral democracy?The similarities between Israel and Pakistan are well documented. Faisal Devji’s 2013 book Muslim Zion argues thatLike Israel, Pakistan came into being through the migration of a minority population, inhabiting a vast subcontinent, who abandoned old lands in which they feared persecution to settle in a new homeland. Just as Israel is the world’s sole Jewish state, Pakistan is the only country to be established in the name of Islam.In this regard, the military dictator Gen Zia-ul-Haq’s remarks made in an interview to The Economist in 1981 are also instructive:Pakistan is like Israel, an ideological state. Take out the Judaism from Israel and it will fall like a house of cards. Take Islam out of Pakistan and make it a secular state; it would collapse.So, what explains the difference?My hypothesis to explain the difference is this: the mediating variable between democracy and dictatorship is the status of civil-military relations in the formative years.The basis of this hypothesis is an argument developed in Steven Wilkinson’s excellent book Army and Nation. The book tries to explore why the armies in India and Pakistan—although cut from the same cloth—became such markedly different domestic political actors in their respective democracies. My case is that the arguments mentioned in the book apply equally to the Israel—Pakistan comparison. Here’s how.Wilkinson lists three factors for the difference between the armies of independent India and Pakistan:India’s socio-economic, strategic and military inheritance in 1947 was much better than that of Pakistan. Among other things, Partition worsened the ethnic balance in the Pakistan army while improving it somewhat in the Indian army.The Congress party — unlike the Muslim League in Pakistan — was strongly institutionalised and had a political reach and presence that was difficult to replicate, let alone dislodge.During the first decade of independence, the Indian government took specific “coup proofing” measures: new command and control structures, careful attention to promotions, tenures, and balancing ethnic groups at the top of the military, and attention to top generals’ career pathways after retirement.Now, if these exact factors related to civil-military relations in the formative years are applied to the Israel-Pakistan case, one can see that points (2) and (3) were exactly what David Ben-Gurion and his political forces managed to accomplish in Israel. And hence while Israel managed to retain civilian superiority over its military forces, Pakistan kept having episodic military dictatorships.The follow-up question would then be: was Jinnah’s death immediately after Pakistan’s formation a big reason for the path it took, while India and Israel had the benefit of dominant, long-standing civilian leaders in the formative years?I don’t think so. If Jinnah would have lived longer after Partition, it is likely that he would have put specific “coup proofing” measures in place [point (3) in Wilkinson’s schema]. However, the worsening ethnic balance of the army and a weakly institutionalised Muslim League [points (1) and (2)] would’ve still remained intractable. The paths that Israel and Pakistan are now on have a lot to do with what happened in the formative years of the two democracies.HomeWorkReading and listening recommendations on public policy matters[Article] The EU has agreed to make “One Europe, One Charger” a reality in 2024. In October 2021, we had written why this move is a PolicyWTF. The decision is also a useful case study for policymaking. It demonstrates that we should be wary of intuitive solutions to policy problems.[Book] Media Capture: How Money, Digital Platforms, and Governments Control the News (edited by Anya Schiffrin).[Podcast] Ashok Malik speaking about TV price controls on The Seen and the Unseen[Podcast] Shruti Rajagopalan and Lant Pritchett have released another blockbuster Ideas of India episode. A must-listen for all public policy enthusiasts. If you are short on time, jump to Pritchett’s criticism of the poverty line. It’s superb. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit publicpolicy.substack.com

The Governor of the Bank of Ghana, Dr. Ernest Addison, has described the rising inflation rate of nearly 24% as a complicated matter that will be dealt with decisively in the ongoing Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting that began today, May 18th, 2022.

The Bank of England raised interest rates from 0.5% to 0.75% last week, emphasising its determination to fight sky-high inflation, which is now expected to hit 8% by the end of June. The bank's interest rate hike is the third increase in a row in as many policy meetings. The bank's policymakers cited the rising cost of living and strong employment as the reasons for the latest rate rise. The bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) stated that Russia's invasion of Ukraine would also “accentuate both the peak in inflation and the adverse impact on activity by intensifying the squeeze on household incomes”. The MPC said that economic growth in countries that are net energy importers, including the UK, was likely to slow and that inflation could climb even higher in the autumn when energy prices are set to rise again. Also covered in the episode are recent insolvency statistics, and some changes we are beginning to see in the number of company administrations.

As consumers are facing increasing hardship compounded by WEDNESDAY's unprecedented fuel prices at the pumps, labour union Solidarity has put forward an alternative petrol price model. The proposal is contained in a draft petition sent to Parliament THIS WEEK.  Economists have warned of even higher fuel prices in April - with international crude oil prices spiralling above the $100 a barrel mark - largely as a result of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. To make matters worse the Reserve Bank is set to hike the repo rate by an even higher margin when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets later this month.

In this episode, Piers and I delve into some of the important new stories this week from mega-cap tech earnings to central bank decisions and even a quick word on the incredible Rafael Nadal!First up for debate is Meta (Facebook) whose shares collapsed following their latest earnings report. The reaction was compounded by a number of factors, not just the top-line figures. We discuss user figures, platform, regulatory threats, expenses, increasing competition, and what the future holds for the once-dominant social network company.Alphabet (Google) and Amazon also released their latest numbers this week which were met with a much more favourable reaction on Wall Street. We explain the mechanics and rationale behind Google's 20-for-1 stock split and question whether Amazon's initial positive reaction is the correct one.Finally, we talk about the Bank of England, which executed its first back-to-back increase in interest rates since 2004. More importantly, we examine the breakdown of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) where four members actually opted for a more aggressive 50bps increase to the base rate. What were they thinking, why are they worried and what does this mean for the UK consumer and the broader marketplace.Sign up for our daily Market Maker newsletter at https://bit.ly/3AV7MSS See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of Ghana has increased its Policy Rate – the rate at which it lends to commercial banks by 100 basis points (1%) to 14.5%, citing risks to inflation, exchange rate as well as fiscal and debt sustainability challenges.

Interest Rates Held At 0.1% But Will Rise In Coming Months Bank Of England Hints The Bank of England has indicated an interest rate rise in "coming months" to combat high inflation but held base rates. At the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on Thursday, policymakers voted 7-2 in favour of no change from the current record low rate of 0.1%. Bank governor Andrew Bailey said the decision had been a "close call", while the MPC said there was "value" in waiting to see how the jobs market coped with the end of the furlough scheme. The UK has resisted calls to hike rates amid market expectations of 4% inflation by the year end. I would still expect rates to go up to 0.25% before too long in order to curb inflation in Europe and America where prices are rising by over 5% per annum. US starts ‘tapering' $120 billion a month bond purchases by $10 billion. See also: Buy-to-Let Property Demand Down 60% Says London Estate Agent As Chinese Buyers Dry Up- https://youtu.be/4RLroedmkX4 What Can You Invest In That's Guaranteed To Go Up In Price In 12 Months? The Answer Will Shock You! - https://youtu.be/_ccb_gTVDkQ Financial education in investing is the key to building and keeping wealth. Never stop learning! Keep watching or listening to my free podcasts on iTunes and subscribe to my YouTube channel for regular financial news and updates. If you would like to learn more about investing and managing your money, property investing and become financially free without working any harder, watch this free on demand training. I will give a special free gift which can help you to immediately transform your finances when you attend the online training. Click on this link to watch the free training now https://bit.ly/3wLWqx2 To order 'Yes, Money Can Buy You Happines" on Amazon Click: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Yes-Money-Can-Buy-Happiness/dp/1095175858 #property #financialeducation #freetraining #propertyinvestment #investing #passiveincome #nomoneydownpropertyinvesting #makemoneyonline #chinaproperty #buytoletproperty #rentalproperty ##propertymarketnews #interestrates

The three-day meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is already underway, and RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das is scheduled to announce the outcome on Friday, October 8th.  A Business Standard policy poll of 14 leading economists and market participants has suggested that the central bank might maintain the status quo on rates and also the ‘accommodative' stance. But hints on policy normalisation, starting with the removal of excess liquidity, will also be watched. At present the repo rate stands at 4%, reverse repo rate at 3.35%, and the cash reserve ratio at 4%. Pankaj Pathak, fund manager (Fixed Income) at Quantum Mutual Fund, said: From a bond market perspective, liquidity guidance would be the key driver for short-tenor bonds, while longer-maturity bonds would depend on the quantum of GSAP. For CARE Ratings chief economist Madan Sabnavis, the RBI's language with respect to liquidity will hold a greater importance. That apart, other key factors to watch out for in the RBI policy will be the possibility of revision in GDP or inflation forecast, especially against the backdrop of rising crude oil prices. Echoing similar views, G Chokkalingam, founder, Equinomics Research & Advisory, expects a status-quo policy from the RBI. Clearly, the consensus seems to be in the favour of a status quo on policy. But, how should investors play the markets ahead of the policy? So, while we wait for the RBI-triggered action to unfold on Friday, expect the markets to trade sideways till then, with participants hesitant to build fresh larger positions ahead of the key event.  After the RBI policy, the focus will shift to the earnings season, with IT major TCS set to announce its September quarter numbers after the market hours on Friday. On Thursday, however, the markets could remain range-bound, with stock specific action continuing. That said, with the indices near record high, experts advise investors to remain selective and look for quality stocks. Advice to new investors Don't invest with borrowed funds Use market profits to reduce existing debt Invest in quality stocks only   Podcast by Kanishka Gupta Watch Video

Higher energy prices will hit millions of people across the UK in October, just when the cold weather starts, and the country moves into winter. The energy regulator, Ofgem, said the price cap for default domestic energy deals would be raised to cover suppliers' extra wholesale costs. Your typical gas and electricity bill could go up by £139 to £1,277 a year. Prepayment customers will see an increase of £153, from £1,156 to £1309, the regulator said. There has never been a more urgent time to review your tariff and consider switching to a cheaper supplier. Switching is simple using one of the many comparison sites or making a few phone calls. Just Google ‘switch energy supplier'. One comparison site said you can save £268 by switching today. I have not verified this statement, but I have saved similar amounts by shopping around. Check out my free S.M.A.R.T MONEY MANAGER COURSE VIDEO. You can also save by calling you current supplier and asking them to put you on a cheaper tariff. The worst tariff is usually the ‘standard' one and people with prepay metres – usually the lowest paid - are paying the most for their energy. HMO landlords who include bills in the rent should definitely shop around for the best deals, as tenants, like children, are not too fussed about turning off lights! The energy price hike reflects rising costs of commodities across the globe. Yesterday, the Governor of the Bank of England described price rise surge as “temporary”, as the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously voted to hold base interest rates at the record low 0.1%. Andrew Bailey did warn that if inflation continued to rise that the central bank would have to take “action”, which translates as higher interest rates. The Bank warned inflation will hit 4% this year, higher than previously forecast and double its 2% target rate. We have witnessed higher prices in the shops here and in America. The Consumer Prices Index hit its highest for almost three years in June, at 2.5%, as food and energy costs rose. This could be a long cold winter for millions of people, so you had better prepare yourself. Becoming financially free takes time and requires many hours of hard work and study. If you would like to learn how to invest and manage your money, become a professional property investor, and be financially free without working any harder and spending your life exchanging your time for money watch this free on demand training now to learn how to become financially free without working any harder. As a thank you, I will give a special free gift which can help transform your finances when you attend the online training. Click on this link to watch the free training now https://bit.ly/3wLWqx2

This podcast covers all the major world news in Hindi. Today's News gives a briefing on India China Border Talks, Latest News And Updates On 9 April Military Dialogue, The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das announced in the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), Brazil has more than 4,000 deaths in 24 hours for first time, 3 killed, 17 injured in cylinder blast in Pakistan's Karachi, Britain recommends non-AstraZeneca vaccine alternative to under-30s इस पॉडकास्ट में दुनिया के सभी प्रमुख समाचार शामिल हैं। आज के समाचार में विषयों पर संक्षिप्त जानकारी दी गई है, भारत चीन सीमा वार्ता, 9 अप्रैल को सैन्य वार्ता, भारतीय रिज़र्व बैंक (RBI) के गवर्नर शक्तिकांत दास ने मौद्रिक नीति समिति (MPC) में घोषणा की, ब्राजील में पहली बार 24 घंटे में 4,000 से अधिक मौतें हुई हैं, पाकिस्तान के कराची में सिलेंडर ब्लास्ट में 3 की मौत, एस्ट्राज़ेनेका वैक्सीन लेने के बाद ब्लड क्लॉटिंग

The president of the African development bank, Akinwumi Adesina, has stated that profit shifting, base erosion and tax avoidance by multinational corporations form a huge part of Africa's missing taxes and they account for a large share of the over $60 billion in illicit capital flows that Africa loses annually. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will hold its first meeting for 2021 on Monday and Tuesday, during which it is expected to assess its existing guiding principles in line with recent developments in the international space and their implications for the domestic economy.

This newsletter is really a public policy thought-letter. While excellent newsletters on specific themes within public policy already exist, this thought-letter is about frameworks, mental models, and key ideas that will hopefully help you think about any public policy problem in imaginative ways. It seeks to answer just one question: how do I think about a particular public policy problem/solution?Welcome to the mid-week edition in which we write essays on a public policy theme. The usual public policy review comes out on weekends.PS: If you enjoy listening instead of reading, we have this edition available as an audio narration courtesy the good folks at Ad-Auris. If you have any feedback, please send it to us. Listen in podcast app- RSJThe Trump administration is negotiating another stimulus package with Democrats that could be upwards of US$ 1.8 trillion. The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet continues to expand since the beginning of the pandemic. There’s a possibility it could touch US$ 10 trillion by the end of the year as it buys up treasuries, corporate bonds, mortgage-backed securities and muni bonds. With all this liquidity in the system and money in the hands of the average American, the macroeconomic puzzle is: where is the promised inflation? And if there’s no rise in inflation after such a dramatic increase in the deficit, why should the US bother about financial prudence? Why not just print money and spend your way to growth and prosperity?The Indian CaseThis has some resonance for India too. The loose monetary and fiscal policy regime we ran for longer than necessary after the global financial crisis (GFC) leading to high inflation in 2012-14 still casts a long shadow. That experience led to the flexible inflation target (FIT) that was set by the government for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the RBI. The results of the FIT regime have been mixed. It had become clear a couple of quarters before the pandemic began that this policy needed a relook. Growth had slowed down to a 4-5 per cent range while inflation remained at 4 per cent in the second half of last FY. But members of MPC-1 (whose term ended in September 2020) paused on rate cuts for the fear of inflation going beyond 6 per cent bound. Even at the peak of demand destruction in August, the MPC-1 had taken a hawkish stance on inflation that had the bond market worried. The slew of measures announced by the RBI last week to keep the liquidity high in the system and to improve transmission from banks to borrowers to spur growth coupled with the commentary from the newly formed MPC-2, suggested it is willing to look past inflation running above 6 per cent. This came as a relief to the bond market as yields fell and spreads narrowed. The inflation question for India is relevant too. Will the quantitative easing done so far by RBI and its promise to continue to do more lead to higher inflation? What To Make Of Inflation?At the heart of these questions is whether the Friedman doctrine on inflation that has guided the actions of central banks for the better part of the last four decades still valid. He wrote:“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.”The experience in the decade since the global financial crisis (GFC) doesn’t seem to bear Friedman out. Inflation has remained persistently low despite multiple rounds of quantitative easing by the Fed. There are structural reasons including a change in demographic composition, technological progress and innovation, productivity increases and global trade that account for this. This low inflation period in the developed world has meant there is a significant change in inflation expectations because of quantitative easing measures this time around. How do we know this? Let’s look at the US 10-year yield movements over the past decade. In the aftermath of the GFC between 2009-13, on all occasions when the Fed pulled the QE lever (QE1, 2 and 3), the yields rose sharply on its announcement and fell when it ended. This showed there was a strong expectation of future inflation which led to people switching to short-term bonds from the longer ones. The pandemic related QE hasn’t seen this though. So far in 2020, the QE announcements by the Fed have hardly moved the needle on bond yields. People no longer believe a loose monetary policy will lead to future inflation.Central Banks’ Actions During The PandemicHowever, there is one significant difference in stimulus this time around. During the GFC, there was no significant fiscal stimulus provided by the US Treasury. It was a financial crisis, not a broader economic one. And it was solved by pumping more liquidity into the system. This time the quantum of fiscal stimulus to prevent destruction of demand has been enormous. Once the economy recovers and demand comes back organically, this extra money supply in the system will lead to future inflation. To what extent and when is still unknown. But the Fed is willing to have that kind of ‘heating’ up of the economy to support growth. And it doesn’t want to be forced to act when that happens. That’s the reason it moved to an average inflation targeting regime last month to give itself greater manoeuverability to take steps that could push inflation beyond the target of 2 per cent. It also signalled its intention of not raising the almost zero-bound interest rates anytime soon even if the inflation crosses 2 per cent. In India too the message seems to be similar. We haven’t had a fiscal stimulus to match that of the US. But the RBI wants to signal it is willing to live with inflation running above ‘comfortable’ level in the coming days. The MPC report last week claimed almost 80 per cent of the increase in inflation beyond the 4 per cent target can be attributed to supply chain disruptions and increase in fuel prices. This it believes is a short-term phenomenon and inflation will be in the 5 per cent range next year. This is underlined to give comfort to bond investors to buy government securities without the fear of a near-term interest rate hike to contain inflation. Further, the other step announced by RBI in extending the HTM (hold-to-maturity) limits by another year to March 2022 is to protect any bondholder from the volatility of prices and booking losses on account of it. The overall RBI signal is it doesn’t want the worry of rising inflation and a consequent rate increase to come in the way of growth. It’s focus now is on improving the transmission of rate cuts to the borrowers to stimulate growth.All of these point to two distinct shifts in thinking in monetary policymaking in both US and India. One, mere monetary expansion isn’t sufficient to trigger high inflation. Two, central banks are looking beyond price stability to include nominal GDP growth, currency management and employment as their objectives. This will be tough to manage but it is a more realistic set of goals to pursue in the current environment.    HomeWorkReading and listening recommendations on public policy matters[Article] Why is Inflation so low? by Juan Sanchez and Hee Sung Kim published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Get on the email list at publicpolicy.substack.com

On Wednesday 27th May, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Kenya had a  meeting to go over the monetary policy stance. This podcast goes over the press release of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting to highlight the key communications contained therein.

On Wednesday 27th May, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Kenya had a meeting to go over the monetary policy stance. This podcast goes over the press release of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting to highlight the key communications contained therein.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank has decided to cut the repo rate by 100 basis points. This follows calls that the Reserve Bank needs to do more to support the economy. We spoke to Dr Azar Jammine, Director and Chief Economist at Econometrix...

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank decided to cut the repo rate by 100 basis points. This takes the repo rate to 4.25% per annum, meaning South Africans will be paying less on their debt. The MPC meeting for May was moved forward to Tuesday. Last month, the central bank cut the repo rate by 100 basis points to 5.25%, citing a fragile domestic economic outlook, with the economy expected to contract this year and therefore it needed a boost. What gives???? I discuss options.. --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/gerald-chemunorwa-mwandia/message Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/gerald-chemunorwa-mwandia/support

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has cut the repo rate by 25 basis points. Reserve Bank Governor, Lesetja Kganyago says this decision was taken in light of the improved inflation outlook. Earlier on we spoke to Market Analyst at Absa Wealth and Investment Management, Tsitsi Hatendi-Matika, who says it is too early to celebrate this cut

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has left the repo rate unchaged at 6-point-75 per cent. This, despite market expectation for a rate cut. Reserve Bank Governor, Lesetja Kganyago says two main inflation risks featured during the MPC meeting namely, prospects of a sovereign credit downgrade and international oil prices. Tsepiso Makwetla spoke to Nedbank Economist, Busisiwe Radebe