Podcasts about quantitative easing qe

Crypto News: Donald Trump and Fed will push for Quantitative Easing (QE) which will pump Bitcoin and Altcoins. The Senate Banking Committee launches subcommittee dedicated to crypto. $870 billion asset manager Standard Chartered to offer Bitcoin & crypto custody services in Europe. Show Sponsor - ✅ VeChain is a versatile enterprise-grade L1 smart contract platform https://www.vechain.org/ 

In this interview, Adam Butler is in conversation with Mike Harris, a renowned financial market analyst and philosopher. The discussion is sparked by a Twitter exchange about the impact of low interest rates on the working class. The conversation evolves to cover a wide range of topics from the relationship between Quantitative Easing (QE) and technological advancements, to the philosophical underpinnings of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), and the potential of AGI to uncover lost knowledge.Topics Discussed• The counterintuitive argument that higher interest rates are better for the working class• The relationship between QE and the acceleration in the production of transistors• The role of technology in financing and the arms race around AI• The exploration of the philosophical principles that underpin AGI• The potential of AGI to uncover lost knowledge and its implications• The discussion of the knowledge paradox and its relevance in the era of big data• The historical suppression of knowledge by the church and its impact on the development of technology• The potential of AGI to recreate the lost knowledge and its implications for humanityThis episode is a thought-provoking exploration of the intersection of economics, technology, and philosophy. It provides valuable insights into the potential of AGI and the role it could play in uncovering lost knowledge. It's a must-listen for anyone interested in understanding the broader implications of AI and the future of knowledge.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. William English's work at the Yale Program on Financial Stability: https://som.yale.edu/faculty-research/faculty-directory/william-b-english William English's co-authored new book, “Monetary Policy Responses to Post-Pandemic Inflation”: https://cepr.org/about/news/press-release-new-cepr-ebook-monetary-policy-responses-post-pandemic-inflation William English's co-authored Chapter on the Fed's Balance Sheet: https://www.elgaronline.com/edcollchap/book/9781800375321/book-part-9781800375321-7.xml William English's 2012 paper on the rationale and effects of QE: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/the-federal-reserve39s-large-scale-asset-purchase-programs-rationale-and-effects.htm “Interest Rate Risk and Bank Equity Valuations”: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/interest-rate-risks-and-bank-equity-valuations.htm Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:31) Fiscal Policy & Monetary Policy Never Really Were Separated. But It Would Nice If They Were (03:49) Do High Interest Rates Dissuade Government Borrowing? (07:09) The Fed Doesn't Like To Discuss Fiscal Policy (09:53) The Fed's Balance Sheet Expansion of 2020 & 2021 (13:57) The Effects of Quantitative Easing (QE), In Theory And Practice (18:59) I Don't Remember Us (The Fed) Thinking A Lot About Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP) (23:41) VanEck Ad (24:22) The October 2008 Decision To Allow The Fed To Pay Interest On Reserves Assisted the Implementation of Quantitative Easing (QE), Which Began ~1 Month Later (29:15) The Striking Thing About The Asset Purchases Was The Size (32:32) Forward Guidance vs. QE: Which Is More Powerful, And Which Has More Knock-on Effects? (36:27) Forward Guidance Is More Powerful When Initial Market Expectations About Future Policy Rates Are Incorrect (44:37) Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT) Framework Adopted By The Fed In 2020 (52:48) Fast QE & Slow QT = Secular Rise In Size of Fed Balance Sheet (57:27) Fed's Decision To Slow Pace of QT Was Due To Desire To Avoid a "Snafu" In Money Markets Such As In September 2019 (01:02:36) The Bernanke Doctrine: Should Interest Rate Policy & Balance Sheet Policy Always Be Pointed In The Same Direction? (01:07:12) If Balance Sheet Policy Is Moving The Opposite Direction Of Interest Rate Policy, Does That Weaken The Signaling Impact Of Balance Sheet Policy? (01:11:50) Lowest Comfortable Level of Reserves (LCLoR) (01:19:34) Impact Of Interest Rate Movements On Bank Equity Valuations __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Bank of England (“BOE”) Deputy Governor, Sir Dave Ramsden asserted this week that inflation pressures in the UK remain too high, emphasising the need for more evidence of easing before contemplating a cut in interest rates. Additionally, Ramsden suggested the possibility of the BOE selling all UK government bonds purchased under Quantitative Easing (“QE”) to be more prepared for future crises. The move aims to safeguard public finances, as the Treasury underwrites losses incurred on these asset sales. Ramsden clarified that other liquidity tools would replace QE.Stocks featured:Howden Joinery, Ocado and Reckitt Benckiser GroupTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Matt and Kelly compare insolvency of Silicone Valley Bank to 9-11 and Quantitative Easing (QE) and Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) to the Project for a New American Century (PNAC) which led to the U.S. invading 7 countries in 5 years.  They also talk Summertime Jams, actual Biden supporters, and make zero mistakes in recording. Tag us on Instagram and go to heaven As always, if you like what we're doing, let us know on your podcast app by leaving a review or reach out to us on Instagram. And, check out our website for the best subversive shirts, flip-flops, and coffee mugs your money can still buy at libertytreelifestyle.com Wanna support the show? Go to https://www.patreon.com/libertytree and become a member of the Liberty Tree Social Club Follow us and give us a review @Libertyupatree on twitter @Libertytreebrand on Instagram Watch the video on YouTube Order Kelly's Book The Great American Contractor  Look into a Cold Tub at Kelly Cowan Designs Love you guys Kelly and Matt    

Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) succumbed to poor risk management in holding long term bonds funded with demand deposits. If that's all there was to banking we wouldn't need many banks. But at a strategic level, Quantitative Easing (QE) as pursued for too long during the pandemic created the conditions for poor decisions. Central bank strategy […]

Lyn Alden is a macroeconomist and investment strategist. In this interview, we discuss her latest article: How the Fed “Went Broke”. Lyn explains how for the first time in modern history the Federal Reserve is operating at a loss. We talk about the ramifications in terms of continuing high inflation, the bankruptcy of government agencies, and the impacts on the Fed's independence. - - - - Bitcoin was born when the global economic machine was showing signs of a terminal illness. Since then, governments around the world are trying to keep the system alive, using measures that will in fact hasten its demise. Due to misaligned political incentives, greed and ignorance, the world's economy is now entering an unprecedented period of serious economic trauma. Government bailouts are not new. Alexander Hamilton in 1792 used federal funds to prevent the collapse of the securities market. However, it was the use of Quantitative Easing (QE) to prop up the financial system during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) when the Rubicon was crossed. The Fed bought over $2 trillion of commercial bank assets in 2008/9, paid for through an increase in the monetary base. The main problem with the GFC was governments became tolerant of the new drug of choice: QE leading to an erosion of market discipline. QE3 started in late 2012, was nicknamed “QE infinity”. It result in $4.5 trillion of commercial bank assets being bought by the Fed. QE4, in response to the Covid pandemic, resulted in the Fed purchasing another $2 trillion of assets. Since 2008, the monetary base in the US has increased by 750%. The inevitable result is inflation. The response by central banks is to increase interest rates, a tool that doesn't apply to the problem at hand: unsustainable levels of debt. Higher interest affects the cost of their liabilities, such that they are now, for the first time ever, in negative equity. They are “broke”. What the markets know but politicians aren't willing to accept is that this is a new paradigm. The UK Prime Minister Liz Truss was ousted after only 49 days when markets decided unfunded tax cuts with debt to GDP over 100% were irresponsible. The growing realisation is that budget deficits need to be cut. Smaller governments are likely whether people want them or not.

“What they did back in 2008…they said, ‘Well, we're going to create a tonne of new base money, we're going to buy some of those assets to reliquefy the system.' And so, it's not an exaggeration to say it's essentially like a Ponzi scheme, it's something that has to keep growing in order to function.”— Lyn AldenLyn Alden is a macroeconomist and investment strategist. In this interview, we discuss her latest article: How the Fed “Went Broke”. Lyn explains how for the first time in modern history the Federal Reserve is operating at a loss. We talk about the ramifications in terms of continuing high inflation, the bankruptcy of government agencies, and the impacts on the Fed's independence.- - - - Bitcoin was born when the global economic machine was showing signs of a terminal illness. Since then, governments around the world are trying to keep the system alive, using measures that will in fact hasten its demise. Due to misaligned political incentives, greed and ignorance, the world's economy is now entering an unprecedented period of serious economic trauma. Government bailouts are not new. Alexander Hamilton in 1792 used federal funds to prevent the collapse of the securities market. However, it was the use of Quantitative Easing (QE) to prop up the financial system during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) when the Rubicon was crossed. The Fed bought over $2 trillion of commercial bank assets in 2008/9, paid for through an increase in the monetary base.The main problem with the GFC was governments became tolerant of the new drug of choice: QE leading to an erosion of market discipline. QE3 started in late 2012, was nicknamed “QE infinity”. It result in $4.5 trillion of commercial bank assets being bought by the Fed. QE4, in response to the Covid pandemic, resulted in the Fed purchasing another $2 trillion of assets. Since 2008, the monetary base in the US has increased by 750%. The inevitable result is inflation. The response by central banks is to increase interest rates, a tool that doesn't apply to the problem at hand: unsustainable levels of debt. Higher interest affects the cost of their liabilities, such that they are now, for the first time ever, in negative equity. They are “broke”. What the markets know but politicians aren't willing to accept is that this is a new paradigm. The UK Prime Minister Liz Truss was ousted after only 49 days when markets decided unfunded tax cuts with debt to GDP over 100% were irresponsible. The growing realisation is that budget deficits need to be cut. Smaller governments are likely whether people want them or not. - - - - This episode's sponsors:Gemini - Buy Bitcoin instantlyIris Energy - Bitcoin Mining. Done Sustainably Ledn - Financial services for Bitcoin hodlersBitcasino - The Future of Gaming is hereLedger - State of the art Bitcoin hardware walletFortris - Digital asset treasury operationsWasabi Wallet - Privacy by default-----WBD627 - Show Notes-----If you enjoy The What Bitcoin Did Podcast you can help support the show by doing the following:Become a Patron and get access to shows early or help contributeMake a tip:Bitcoin: 3FiC6w7eb3dkcaNHMAnj39ANTAkv8Ufi2SQR Codes: BitcoinIf you do send a tip then please email me so that I can say thank youSubscribe on iTunes | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | YouTube | Deezer | TuneIn | RSS FeedLeave a review on iTunesShare the show and episodes with your friends and familySubscribe to the newsletter on my websiteFollow me on Twitter Personal | Twitter Podcast | Instagram | Medium | YouTubeIf you are interested in sponsoring the show, you can read more about that here or please feel free to drop me an email to discuss options.

Matt and Kelly talk about the new Kill Switch for New Vehicles law that goes into effect in 2026, Quantitative Easing (QE), abolishing your local building department, and they re-welcome the 87,000 new--armed--IRS agents. Tag us on Instagram and we will DM you a 15% discount code for apparel at LibertyTreeLifestyle.com, the best post will win a couple of free shirts! As always, if you like what we're doing, let us know on your podcast app by leaving a review or reach out to us on Instagram.  And, check out our website for the best subversive shirts, flip-flops, and coffee mugs your money can still buy at libertytreelifestyle.com Wanna support the show?  Go to https://www.patreon.com/libertytree and become a member of the Liberty Tree Social Club Follow us and give us a review @Libertyupatree  on twitter @Libertytreebrand on Instagram Love you guys Kelly and Matt  

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU'LL LEARN: 03:34 - Why David believes we are in the biggest financial bubble of all time and how did we get to this point? 05:57 - Why the Fed's use of Modern Monetary Theory, Quantitative Easing (QE) and negative real yields have been large contributors to Bubble 3.0.09:09 - What the difference is between QE and Modern Monetary Theory. 14:47 - What the “Fed Put” is, does it still exist, and what impact this has on the stock market. 26:28 - Why David thinks this bubble is more like the 2008-2009 period and what is different about this time. 32:44 - David thoughts on where we are in Bubble 3.0 as of 2022 and why he thinks the worst is not over. 37:23 - What is driving the dollar's recent strength? 46:50 - David's thoughts on owning Gold and bonds right now. 51:10 - Why David thinks now is the worst time to be a passive investor and his thoughts on the “passive indexing bubble”. And much, much more! *Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.BOOKS AND RESOURCESCheck out David's financial writings: Haymaker.Check out David's book: Bubble 3.0: History's Biggest Financial Bubble (audiobook on Awesound) USE DISCOUNT CODE: MINVEST33Related episode: Stock Market Bubbles & Crashes w/ Scott Nations - MI197.NEW TO THE SHOW?Check out our Millennial Investing Starter Packs.Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here.Try Robert and Clay's favorite tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance.Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services.Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets.Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts.P.S The Investor's Podcast Network is excited to launch a subreddit devoted to our fans in discussing financial markets, stock picks, questions for our hosts, and much more! Join our subreddit r/TheInvestorsPodcast today!SPONSORSGet a FREE audiobook from Audible.Confidently take control of your online world without worrying about viruses, phishing attacks, ransomware, hacking attempts, and other cybercrimes with Avast One. Private assets represent 98% of companies in North America but are absent in most portfolios. Reconstruct your portfolio with private markets with Mackenzie Investments.Invest in high quality, cash flowing real estate without all of the hassle with Passive Investing.If your business has five or more employees and managed to survive Covid you could be eligible to receive a payroll tax rebate of up to twenty-six thousand dollars per employee. Find out if your business qualifies with Innovation Refunds.Enjoy a 400-calorie meal that contains 40g of expertly sourced, premium plant protein, all 26 essential vitamins and minerals, and a scientifically calibrated mix of carbs, good fats and fiber with Huel Black Edition. Plus, get a free t-shirt and free shaker with your first order.Take a position daily on potential price movements, and gain exposure while limiting risk with Interactive Brokers.Join Steadily and BiggerPockets in recognizing and celebrating landlords nationwide by participating in the #AmericasBestLandlord contest. Find out how you can win $10,000 today.Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors. Connect with David: Twitter | LinkedIn Connect with Rebecca: Twitter | InstagramSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

On this episode, we do a deep dive into monetary inflation. Here's some of what we cover. We discuss what it is and the tools central bankers have as their disposal including quantitative easing and yield curve control. Universal Basic Income The Cantillon Effect How it operates at a global level The Federal Reserve And what we think will happen in various real world examples. Resources mentioned in this episode: I'd Rather Be Right's episode on the bond market "Deep Dive: Bonds, The Bond Market, Quantitative Easing ("QE") and How They Impact All Other Assets" Lyn Alden's articles on Inflation and Money Printing "What Bitcoin Did" with Peter McCormack This is the specific episode mentioned in the podcast with Preston Pysh entitled "Is Hyperinflation Coming? With Preston Pysh" "We Study Billionaires" Podcast "Bitcoin Fundamentals" Podcast (the Wednesday episodes of "We Study Billionaires" with Preston Pysh) --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/idratherberight/message

Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles Listen To This Episode:  Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS Charts for episode can be found on BitcoinandMarkets.com/fed100 Fed Watch is the macro podcast for bitcoiners. Each episode we discuss current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies. In this episode, CK and I cover developments in Japan in regards to Yield Curve Control, in the US in regards to growth and inflation forecasts, and in Europe in regards to the concern about fragmentation. At the end of the episode, we celebrate the 100th episode of Fed Watch by reviewing some of the guests and calls we have made throughout the show's history. Big Trouble in Japan The economic troubles in Japan are legendary at this point. They have suffered through several lost decades of low growth and low inflation, addressed by the best monetary policy tools of the day, by some of the best experts in economics (maybe that was the mistake). None of it has worked, but let's take a minute to review how we got here. Japan entered their recession/depression back in 1991 after their giant asset bubble burst. Since that time, Japanese economic growth has been averaging roughly 1% a year, with low unemployment, and very low dynamism. It's not negative GDP growth, but it's the bare minimum to have an economic pulse.  To address these issues, Japan became the first major central bank to launch Quantitative Easing (QE) in 2001. This is where the central bank, Bank of Japan (BOJ) would buy government securities from the banks in an attempt to correct any balance sheet problems, clearing the way for those banks to lend (aka print money). That first attempt at QE failed miserably, and in fact, caused growth to fall from 1.1% down to 1%. The Japanese were convinced by Western academic economists, like Paul Krugman, who claimed the BOJ failed because they had not "credibly promised to be irresponsible". They must change the inflation/growth expectations of the people by shocking them into inflationary worry. Round two of monetary policy in 2013 was dubbed QQE (Quantitative and Qualitative Easing). In this strategy, the BOJ would cause "shock and awe" at their profligacy, buying not only government securities but other assets like ETFs on the Tokyo stock market. Of course, this failed, too. Round three was the addition of Yield Curve Control (YCC) in 2016, where the BOJ would peg the yield on the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) to a range of ±10 bps. In 2018, that range was expanded to ±20 bps, and in 2021 to ±25 bps, where we are today. The YCC Fight As the world is now dealing with massive price rises due to the economic hurricane, the government bond yield curve in Japan is pressing upward, testing the BOJ's resolve. As of now, the ceiling has been breached several times, but it hasn't completely burst through. The BOJ now owns more than 50% of all government bonds, on top of their huge share of ETFs on their stock exchange. At this rate, the entire Japanese economy is going to be owned by the BOJ soon. The Yen is also crashing against the dollar. Below is the exchange rate, how many yen to a US dollar. Federal Reserve DSGE Forecasts Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, went in front of Congress this week and said that a US recession was not his "base case", despite nearly all economic indicators crashing in the last month. Here we take a look at the Fed's own DSGE model. The New York Fed DSGE (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) model has been used to forecast the economy since 2011, and its forecasts have been made public continuously since 2014.The current version of the New York Fed DSGE model is a closed economy, representative agent, rational expectations model (although we deviate from rational expectations in modeling the impact of recent policy changes, such as average inflation targeting, on the economy). The model is medium scale, in that it involves several aggregate variables such as consumption and investment, but is not as detailed as other, larger, models. As you can see below, the model is predicting this year's Q4 to Q4 GDP to be negative, as well as the 2023 GDP. That checks with my own estimation and expectation that the US will experience a prolonged but slight recession, while the rest of the world experiences a deeper recession. In the below chart, I point out the return to the post Great Financial Crisis (GFC) norm of low growth and low inflation, a norm shared by Japan by the way. European Anti-fragmentation Cracks Only a week after we showed watchers and listeners of Fed Watch ECB President Christine Lagarde's frustration at the repeated anti-fragmentation questions, EU heavyweight, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, comes through like a bull in a china shop. I read parts of an article from Bloomberg, where Rutte claims it's up to Italy, not the ECB, to contain credit spreads. What's the big worry about fragmentation anyway? The European Monetary Union (EMU, aka Eurozone), is a monetary union without a fiscal union. The ECB policy must serve different countries with different indebtedness. This means that ECB policy on interest rates will affect each country within the union differently, and more indebted countries like Italy, Greece and Spain will suffer a greater burden of rising rates. The worry is that these credit spreads will lead to another European Debt Crisis 2.0, and perhaps even political fractures as well. Countries could be forced to leave the Eurozone and/or the European Union itself over this issue. Lookback on 100 Episodes The last part of this episode is spent looking back at some of the predictions and great calls we've made. It didn't go according to my plan, however, and we got lost in some weeds. But overall, we were able to highlight the success of our unique theories put forward by this show in the bitcoin space. Strong dollar Bitcoin and USD stablecoin dominance US's relative decentralization makes it a better fit for bitcoin Bearish on China and Europe We also highlight some specific calls that have been spot on, which you'll have to watch the episode to hear. I wanted to highlight these things to show the success of our contrarian views, despite being unpopular amongst bitcoiners. This show is an important voice in the bitcoin scene because we are prodding and poking the narratives to find the truth of the global monetary system. Links More on Japan's YCC trouble https://archive.ph/zcIOW Federal Reserves DSGE model https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/dsge#/interactive Mark Rutte on fragmentation https://archive.ph/K6nHI That does it for this week. Thanks to the watchers and listeners. If you enjoy this content please SUBSCRIBE, REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE! Written by Ansel Lindner Economist, bitcoin specialist, and author of the Bitcoin Dictionary and the free weekly Bitcoin Fundamentals Report. Find more from Ansel at the bitcoinandmarkets.com

People may disagree on whether this Fed is hawkish or not, but reactionary is not a controversial adjective. They first demonstrated this in waiting eighteen months after the Covid vaccine and fifteen months after the last $1.9TN slug of fiscal uber-stimulus to roll back their monetary accommodation. Quantitative Easing (QE) is more aptly followed by […]

In this episode, we focus on Quantitative Easing (QE). We discuss what exactly happens when the Federal Reserve engages in QE and what it really does do to the economy. - What are the mechanics of QE? - Why does the FED do QE? What is the theory? - Does QE work as advertised? - What are the consequences of QE for economic activity, financial markets, and inequality? Link to the article discussed in this episode https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/third-quarter-2017/quantitative-easing-how-well-does-this-tool-work#one Follow us on other social media: Website: Bitguide.io Twitter: @Bitguide_io Youtube: Bitguide Clubhouse: @Bitguide Bitcoin Courses: https://www.bitguide.io/learning-modules Blog: https://www.bitguide.io/resources Telegram Channel: https://t.me/Bitguide_io Telegram Discussion: https://t.me/BitguideChat Podcast and Clubhouse Rooms: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCqF6_Vt2eQjNPpI4joxicpQ https://www.clubhouse.com/club/bitguide https://open.spotify.com/show/0fK5OZvqVlWaiMFxc6emXm

If you enjoy this content please SUBSCRIBE and REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE! In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine's Fed Watch, we get an update on the European Central Bank (ECB), use a candy to make the Bank of Japan interesting, and we talk about recent troubles with BlockFi and bitcoin lending. Fed Watch is a podcast for people interested in central bank current events. Bitcoin will consume central banks one day, understanding and documenting how that is happening, that's where this show lives. Inflation in Europe  European inflation numbers for January 2022 came out this week, and set another Euro-era record at 5.1%, up from 5.0% in December. This consumer price increase of 5.1% must be in context of the worst energy and supply chain crisis in two generations.  The price of natural gas and electricity have exploded in Europe, which has a trickle down effect on most prices in the economy. These price increases are not a direct side-effect of money printing, they are a direct effect of the pandemic response of nearly shutting down the global economy for two years. We attempted to play the below 2 minute clip of President Lagarde speaking about inflation, but the audio on the livestream wasn't set up properly. You can also find the full length press conference here. https://youtu.be/f8MQ_Cn2Uck Comparing the Politics of the ECB and Federal Reserve I spent some time on the podcast comparing the highly produced press conference style of the ECB to that of the Federal Reserve. LaGarde appears to have a checklist of special interest groups that she must mention and placate. It strikes me as a political process, where Jerome Powell strikes me as much more concerned about the economics. It is a central part of the Federal Reserve to stay fiercely independent from politics, as seen in the Raskin interview in front of the Senate Banking Committee. Her progressive views were on trial, and they wanted to make sure she wouldn't be bringing her politics to a job at the Fed. The European Central Bank, on the other hand, conflates politics as part of their mandate. European Policy Guidance for 2022 In the press conference, LaGarde said they'd let their QE programs run their course and finish up in late-March to early-April. That was not surprising. However, what did surprise the market was the fact that LaGarde would not repeat her statement from December's press conference where she said the ECB would not raise rates in 2022. The reason the market didn't like this seemingly small detail is because it makes the ECB appear capricious. Compared to Powell, where he made his pivot and doubled down on it later, LaGarde does not give the sense of being confident in her opinions or evaluation of the economy. I attribute this to the overly politicized ECB, by the way. They are unable to focus on a clear mandate, because their policy is being pulled in political directions. European Credit Spreads and Redenomination Risk This is where I tie all these things back to bitcoin. Credit spreads in Europe have been spiking recently. France's 5-year Credit Default Swap (CDS) is priced at 20, Italy at 103, Spain 40, and Greece at 127. As the spread between these CDS contracts widens, investors face an increasing implied redenomination risk (possibility of an exit from the Euro). Over the last couple of weeks, as these CDS spreads have increased, so has the price of bitcoin. Greg Foss talked about this when he came on Fed Watch a couple of months ago. As sound money without counterparty risk, Bitcoin should correlate with CDS prices and the redenomination risk in Europe. I'll be watching these prices closely for any correlation in coming months, but it is a good sign for bitcoin that it performed positively as stresses in Europe have increased this week. Japan The Bank of Japan has been the most consistent over the last few decades. They have done the most Quantitative Easing (QE) by far of any central bank, yet they struggle with low growth, low inflation, low interest rates (these things always go together by the way, as I wrote here). After three decades of ultra-low inflation, I read a story about Umaibo, a snack item in Japan, that has been selling for 10 yen a piece for 40 years, but is raising their price now to 12 yen. Gasp, the horror. Some people think this development, along with the recent creeping up of the 10-year Japanese Government Bond rate to 21 bps is a sign that inflation might be coming to Japan, too. I highly doubt it. The amount of QE the BOJ has done over the last 20 years puts the Federal Reserve to shame, and is not stimulus. Long term QE actually hangs over the economy as a wet blanket on any growth. Just compare the three major central banks, the Fed, the ECB and the BOJ. Their CPI inflation rates are in opposite order to the ranking of the central bank balance sheet as a percent of GDP. The more QE a central bank does, the lower the CPI inflation rate. Bitcoin's Credit Market and BlockFi We end the show this week by talking about the nascent bitcoin credit market. A central player in this ecosystem is BlockFi, and they have been at the center of a growing scandal in bitcoin. A post on the company's own subreddit went viral. In the post, an individual relates that BlockFi called in his loan due to the bitcoins he used having a history of mixing. It is a very bad sign for many BlockFi customers, who probably mix their coins as part of a routine in good financial hygiene. Another development this week is the raising of minimum withdrawal limits from BlockFi. Again, via the company's subreddit: “At this time we are only supporting wire withdrawals of $50,000 USD or more for US-based clients, or $5,000 USD for international. Since we don't support ACH withdrawals for international clients at this time, I might recommend withdrawing to a different platform/exchange that can. This is specifically why we offer 1 stablecoin (plus BTC or LTC) withdrawal per month.” - u/Brandon_BlockFi, Community Manager Lastly, BlockFi has downgraded their interest terms to very low levels. The new Tier 1 (

Join authors Glenn Hubbard and Tony O'Brien as they talk about the leading economic issue of early 2022 - inflation! They discuss the resurgence of inflation to levels not seen in 40 years due to a combination of miscalculations in monetary and fiscal policy. The role of Quantitative Easing (QE) is discussed in depth. Listen to gain insights into the economy today!

Register for the VIRTUAL LIVE Creating Wealth conference on January 28 and 29, 2022. Visit JasonHartman.com today! After 5 years of watching people get bad financial advice, Joe Brown decided to equip people with more control and help them protect and secure their financial future. Join Jason in today's discussion and benefit from Joe's wealth of wisdom!  Key Takeaways: 3:42 FED tapering and the repo market 7:46 Quantitative Easing (QE) Infinity 11:28 Catch 22 14:17 Housing shortage, the FED and money printing 18:08 Yield curve control and home mortgages 20:24 Universal Basic Income and the digital dollar 24:20 China is already doing this 26:00 Predictions and hyperinflation  29:00 Real estate will do fairly well 30:55 How much debt can a country take? 32:41 A thought experiment- redirecting purchasing power   Mentions: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff YouTube: YouTube.com/c/HeresyFinancial Twitter: @heresyfinancial   The WEALTH TRANSFER is happening FAST! Protect your financial future now! Did you know that 25% to 40% of all dollars ever created were dumped into the economy last year???  This will be devastating to some and an opportunity to others, be sure you're on the right side of this massive wealth transfer. Learn from our experiences, maximize your ROI and avoid regrets. Watch, subscribe and comment on Jason's videos on his official YouTube channel: YouTube.com/c/JasonHartmanRealEstate/videos Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: PandemicInvesting.com Jason's TV Clips: Vimeo.com/549444172  CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: JasonHartman.com/Protect What do Jason's clients say?: JasonHartmanTestimonials.com Free Class:  Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else:  JasonHartman.com/Fund Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit JasonHartman.com Free white paper on the Hartman Comparison Index™  Guided Visualization for Investors: JasonHartman.com/visualization Jason's videos in his other sites: JasonHartman.com/Rumble JasonHartman.com/Bitchute JasonHartman.com/Odysee

Hey all, our little newsletter hits a 150 with this edition! That’s about 600,000+ words. We also completed two years of bringing you Anticipating The Unintended last month. The process has been rewarding for us (heh, what else can we say about a free newsletter, really?). We hope it’s been of use to you. Thank you for your attention and time. We will be grateful to hear from you.India Policy Watch #1: Two Indias Insights on burning policy issues in India— RSJIn the old debate between growth versus equality, we have consistently batted for growth in the Indian context. Like we have written earlier (“What Drives Rapid Economic Growth”), economic growth is a moral imperative for policymaking in India. Other things, like equality, climate impact or anything else, are important but if you have to make the trade-offs like it is inevitable in policymaking, you should accord a higher priority to growth over them. This doesn’t endear us to many. How can you not think of carbon emissions, sustainability or the planet for future generations, they ask? Our point remains simple. You need to prioritise when you have limited resources and a thin state capacity. There are millions of great causes to serve in this world but the state cannot be expected to solve all of them. Falling for such demands that are more appropriate for an economy more advanced than India will distract us from our core objective - lifting millions of Indians out of poverty. And trust us, if you don’t do this, you won’t achieve any of the other exalted goals too. In the three decades since the reforms of 1991, we have achieved more on this objective than the previous four. Maybe in the process, we have got a few more billionaires in India. It shouldn’t matter so long as competition is free and individual liberty is sacrosanct. Those should be the only limiting conditions for acting on growth. DoubtBut there are weeks when I question this. This is one of those weeks. You see, the underlying assumption in our argument is that there should be growth. Not just any growth. But one that’s sustainable with expectations of trickle-down benefits. So, when the latest GDP print for the quarter ended September 2021 came out last week, it made me pause. The GDP grew at 8.4 per cent over the same period last year and it is likely (unless a third wave hits us) if this trend continues, we might see double-digit full-year growth. The usual chest-thumping about being the world's fastest-growing economy followed soon after. However, parsing the GDP data a bit more and also taking a broader view of the macroeconomy might be useful in appreciating what kind of growth we are seeing here.The real GDP at ₹35.7 lakh crores is about 0.33 per cent higher than the period ended September 2019. That is we have lost two years of growth in the pandemic. And remember, we were already slowing down considerably at this time two years ago. So, it wasn’t a great base, to begin with. But this isn’t all. A significant part of this growth has been contributed by government spending in public administration and defence which grew by over 17 per cent. The capital spending by the union government this year is up almost 25 per cent over the last year. Private consumption which has been a significant driver of the Indian economy over the last two decades is still below pandemic levels. So are other sectors like construction, travel, hospitality and logistics that employ the bulk of semi and low skilled labour. There are a few bright spots but with caveats. Agriculture grew at a healthy rate of 4.5 per cent but it is likely the rural spending power is getting negated by the rise in inflation. The recovery has been good so far but it isn’t as robust as in the US and China who recovered to pre-pandemic levels earlier than India by a few quarters. The US is expected to grow at 6 per cent while China will likely end up with 8 per cent growth this year on their kind of GDP base. On the other hand, the GST collections continue to be at over Rs 1.2 lakh crores and growing at a steady clip of over 25 per cent. The direct collections are expected to beat the annual target of Rs. 11 lakh crores. That apart, the companies belonging to the Nifty 50 index have seen record profits in H1 of this fiscal. How does one reconcile the almost no growth scenario of the last two years and the lower than pre-pandemic levels of consumption with the record tax collections and profits? The Voiceless Informal EconomyOne reason is possibly better tax compliance because of digitisation and surveillance tools now available that make evasion difficult. The other and more compelling reason is the formalisation of the economy. The pandemic has had a disproportionate impact on the informal economy who struggled to cope with frequent lockdowns, lack of migrant labour to run their establishments and health risks of the pandemic. You perhaps bought your vegetables and fruits from a stall in the local market earlier. The lockdown meant neither of you could transact. You then shifted to an online vendor who delivers it to your doorsteps in less than ten minutes. And you never went back to your older routine. The earlier transactions of this kind were mostly going below the radar. Now they are captured as part of the formal economy and show up in GST numbers. But what about that vegetable vendor? They have lost their livelihood. And this isn’t just an isolated instance. A large shift to the formal economy has happened across sectors among the consuming class. This has hit the informal economy hard. No wonder the labour participation rates at this moment are the lowest in over a decade. We had seen a similar trend in GDP right after the initial shock of demonetisation where the formal economy which gets measured easily and more frequently showed robust growth while the drag of the informal economy showed up later. This time around the pain in the informal economy could be worse. The GDP growth and record GST collections and corporate profits must be seen in this light. The overall pie might have shrunk while the formal economy part has grown. This might not be the growth of the moral imperative kind that we argue for here. Monetary Policy FTWThe other point to consider is the monetary policy India has followed through the pandemic. The fiscal space was constrained even before the pandemic. All the ‘₹20 lakh crores package’ grandstanding aside, it was clear that barring the free food provided from the central PDS and a few other sops, there wasn’t much fiscal support coming from the union government. The heavy lifting was done by the RBI and its skillful management of the monetary policy. RBI has maintained price stability and supported small and medium enterprises through a loan moratorium which gave them a much-needed breather during lockdowns. It continued to keep liquidity high in the system to support credit offtake with added incentives and loan guarantees given to financial institutions to support the most impacted and vulnerable sectors and households. This is all good but this masks the impact of loose monetary policies followed by central banks all over the world including India. Central banks have purchased sovereign and corporate bonds in record quantities over the past few years. This went on overdrive during the pandemic. The buying of these longer-term assets benefit the higher-income households more. The simultaneous loosening of monetary policies around the world has created asset price bubbles all over. In India, these assets are held disproportionately by the same 30-40 million wealthy, high consuming class households that drive most of the public opinion in India. The benefits of such policies to the remaining Indians who don’t participate in the bond or equity markets and keep most of their wealth in safe havens like savings or fixed deposits is minimal. Also, as we come out of the pandemic, the same class of wealthy households have the opportunity to use the low yield regimes to diversify away from financial markets into real estate, crypto and other assets provided to them by wealth advisory firms. There are two Indias here. The other India has hardly any access to these and continues to wonder what those CoinSwitch Kuber ads during IPL are all about. This is setting the stage for deepening inequality over future decades.  Importantly, as the Omicron threat starts to become real, any possibility of tightening of monetary policy, reeling back of Quantitative Easing (QE), ending net asset purchases and likely control of inflation through rate hikes have receded. This means the gravy train of easy money for investors and intermediaries will continue for the foreseeable future.Fiscal Stimulus For The FewLastly, there’s a lot that’s been made about the fundraising by Indian startups during this year. The numbers bear this out. In the first nine months of this year, startups (mostly B2C) raised about $25 billion of funding, about 90 per cent of which was from investors outside India. To put this in perspective, in the six years before, the total funding was about $50 billion put together. The large consumer class that’s going digital rapidly, the enterprising spirit of founders and the availability of tech talent are driving this unprecedented surge in investments. Also, China seems to have closed its doors for now with its ham-fisted clamp down on its national digital champions. Apart from startups, there has been a further inflow of about $30 billion of global liquidity looking for returns into Indian markets and companies during the year. This inflow that’s about 2 per cent of GDP, some argue, is like a fiscal stimulus to the Indian economy. According to this logic, the government didn’t loosen its purse strings to stimulate the economy; instead, it made it attractive for foreign funds to invest directly. Quite clever, eh?There are two problems with this. First, this is a hugely convenient post facto logic. Nobody could have predicted this inflow at the start of the year, nor could anyone have foretold China’s bizarre moves on its digital economy. Second, even if this were a kind of fiscal stimulus, it is different from what a government stimulus would have been. The B2C startups burn their cash in three ways. One, they use it for customer acquisition. This is the money spent on discounts, cashbacks, in high decibel advertising during cricket matches or on digital marketing when they are looking for blitz scaling their business. Quite simply, this money goes as a stimulus to the same 30-40 million wealthy, mostly urban households that have smartphones, transact on these B2C platforms and watch these programmes. A family of a driver or of a cleaning lady isn’t using the Zomato Gold discount coupon. Two, the startups invest in the infrastructure needed to scale up. This means spending on their tech platforms. Most of these startups tend to be asset-light. They don’t have plants and production lines where any additional investment has a multiplier effect. Their money is spent on cloud service providers and IT infrastructure and hardware companies. Three, they spend it on hiring people and investing in their capabilities. This is largely tech talent where the demand right now outstrips supply. This has meant war for talent and a sharp rise in the salaries of good quality programmers for the same kind of roles they were previously doing. The ongoing merry-go-round of ‘great resignation’ has meant no real change in deepening the talent pool in India. It is the same set of people who are already in that upper tier moving across companies demanding higher wages. Anecdotal evidence suggests average salaries have gone up by 30-50 per cent for those in the ₹10-30 lakhs band. Of course, there is some ancillary hiring of drivers, delivery boys (always boys) and other temporary jobs going on but that’s not where the real money is being spent. So, yes, this is a kind of stimulus but it is meant for the same lot that’s already benefiting from the formalisation of the economy and loose monetary policy. It is a triple whammy for them. Sometime during the pandemic, it was clear that we were seeing a K shaped recovery. We wrote about it in a few past editions (here and here). The trend has only exacerbated globally and more so in India. While there’s a widespread sense of strong recovery among the opinion-making classes that are benefitting from this triple whammy, it is difficult to see how the other India is benefiting from it. The lopsided impact of the pandemic on the education of students from poorer families in government schools is another worry. A couple of academic years have been lost for families that have no access to devices for their children and online content from their school. In the long term, this will worsen inequality. I don’t think politicians are unaware of this. The repeal of farm laws, the extension of the free food grains scheme and the queering of the pitch on ‘cultural’ issues in the run-up to UP elections suggest that the BJP is aware of the hardships in that other India. Good politicians always have their ears to the ground. The well-fed, working from home, smug class can be easily swayed by the narrative wars on Twitter and Whatsapp with fake photographs of airports and bridges from China and South Korea passing off as India. But it is difficult to do the same to those whose prospects have materially diminished in the past two years. They will call out the propaganda. It is that India now that’s being wooed in the UP elections. And it will remain the focus of this government till 2024. The real solution lies in a genuine commitment to reforms and free markets. That, as we have seen, is difficult. So, we will be left with a strange mix of India Shining and majoritarianism as means to show progress and win over voters. That kind of growth cannot be our moral imperative.    Matsyanyaaya: A Thank You Note to Xi DadaBig fish eating small fish = Foreign Policy in action— Pranay Kotasthane"Choose your enemies carefully, 'cause they will define you.." Thus went a U2 song. In the strategic realm, Pakistan was long the primary adversary that defined India and vice versa. This hyphenation had a foundational impact on India’s strategic approach. The centre of gravity of our armed forces moved to India's northwest. All three strike corps of the Indian army were created to execute a land grab as a bargaining chip, should Pakistan misbehave. Over time, the military was also made responsible for preventing Pakistan-sponsored terrorism in J&K. Nevertheless, a small and weak primary adversary, one that kept becoming smaller and weaker over time, meant that India was able to wing it. All it needed to do was be better than Pakistan, which was not much of an ask. Arguments for modernising armed forces, collaborating with the US, or building a stronger navy, failed to move the needle because none of them was essential to tackle the adversary. Today, things appear quite different. Pakistan is no longer the adversary that defines India. It continues to remain an irritant, but not the reference point. At the level of serious discourse, I've seen this shift using my own extremely unscientific methodology. I maintain a Pakistan Mention Time (PMT) for discussions. PMT is defined as the time elapsed since the start of a discussion on India's geopolitics until Pakistan first makes an appearance. Until about four years ago, PMT was dangerously low; Pakistan often came up within the first ten minutes of a discussion and like a good Bollywood villain, its shadow loomed large throughout the discussion. That has changed sharply over the last four years. The PMT has increased significantly. Pakistan does make an appearance in most discussions but only briefly. More like Bob Christo, less like Amrish Puri.Quite clearly, Pakistan has been displaced by China as the primary adversary in our minds and actions. And India has no option but to punch up to a bigger, more-powerful adversary rather than punch down to a much-weaker one. The strategic establishment knows that we just can't wing it this time around. Consequently, structural changes such as a deeper collaboration with the US and other Quad countries, a shift of the centre of gravity from the northwest to the north, and integration of the various force elements, is happening at a much faster pace.And of course, the credit for all this goes to Xi Dada and the PRC's international conduct. PRC has made it a point to antagonise many of its neighbours. Its stance has made reconciliation difficult and reignited old conflicts to a point of no return. Disengagement with the PRC hurts India more. But increasingly, India has no choice but to absorb the costs by collaborating with other countries. The old notion of keeping equal distance from the major powers seems untenable, even foolish. The strategic challenge before India has never been more clear. The game is on. But as India navigates the China challenge, there's a critical point that needs to be internalised. That there's a difference between being defined by your adversary and becoming like your adversary. While India was hyphenated with Pakistan for most of its independent history, it managed to not be like Pakistan quite well. The difference between a secular democratic republic and a rabidly religious, majoritarian, military-jihadi-complex-run country couldn't have been starker. But that difference is fast narrowing. Unfortunately, we have become a bit like our adversary on some counts. Religion has become a primary domain of State action and majoritarianism has weakened the Republic like never before. Thus, an important element of responding to the PRC has to be to avoid becoming like the PRC. As it takes centre-stage in our national imagination as the primary adversary, the tendency to become like it will keep growing stronger. Keeping the society above the individual, prioritising stability over freedom, and elevating one-party, one-leader above everything else, will start to seem attractive propositions. That's precisely what we have to be wary of. The ideology of the PRC can’t be defeated by becoming like it. Instead, PRC can only be defeated by rejecting China's hierarchical worldview. As the famous Marcus Aurelius quote goes - "the best revenge is not to be like your enemy".If you find the content here useful, consider taking a deep dive into the world of public policy. Takshashila’s PGP — a 48-week certificate course will allow you to learn public policy analysis from the best practitioners, academics, and teachers. And that too, while you continue to work. In other words, the opportunity costs are low and the benefits are life-changing. Do check out.PolicyWTF: Auto-debit Cancel CultureThis section looks at egregious public policies. Policies that make you go: WTF, Did that really happen?— Pranay KotasthaneBy now, RBI’s new rules on auto-debit of recurring payments have fried my brain and I’m sure yours too. Whether it’s the phone bill or online digital subscriptions, these rules have added friction to even the most trivial payments. Not just individuals, smaller knowledge-based organisations that rely on digital subscriptions need to sacrifice a good chunk of one person’s workday every month to manually purchase email software, team communication software, and e-paper subscriptions. And that’s just the demand side. On the supply side, companies that rely on product subscriptions are suffering from a drop in revenues due to declined transactions.To understand the details of the issue, take a look at this comprehensive note by our friend Anupam Manur. In short, some consumers were not able to exit from subscription cycles easily. Some were auto-subscribed to lifelong subscriptions they couldn’t cancel. Then there was the ever-present issue of fakesters stealing people’s money - all three genuine issues requiring better consumer protection enforcement by the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food, and Public Distribution by punishing wrongdoers.But that’s not what happened. Instead, the RBI asked banks, card companies and merchants to register e-mandates. These organisations in turn simply declined existing mandates. The RBI could well have fined the banks and card companies until they did not register the e-mandates. Instead, it chose a blunt instrument hurting every consumer using an auto-debit facility.RBI’s intentions aside, this move is symptomatic of what I call hyper-multiobjective optimisation — the bane of policymaking in India. One institution tries to perform so many functions that it does neither of them well. This is particularly the case with agencies that are relatively better. They soon start using their powers in other domains, regardless of their purpose. And thus, the courts make executive decisions, the executive short-circuits the legislature, and the RBI becomes a consumer protection forum.India Policy Watch #2: Friedman on IndiaInsights on burning policy issues in India— Pranay KotasthaneIt amazes me that in the early years of the republic when the planning mindset was at its peak, the Indian government invited leading experts from other countries to comment on India’s governance choices. It seems unimaginable in today’s times that the Indian state was so open to ideas from outside. Anyway, as part of that exercise, Milton Friedman visited India twice in the 1950s and wrote two stunning articles on “Indian Economic Planning” and “A Memorandum to the Government of India 1955”. Some ideas from these two articles continue to remain relevant today. I’m annotating them below for your reading.What struck me was that Friedman was largely optimistic about India’s prospects at a time when the world thought India was destined to fail and Indians were destined to die from hunger. He put India’s human power in perspective through these words:“Most people everywhere are simply hewers of wood and drawers of water. But their hewing of wood and drawing of water is made far more productive by the activities of the minority of industrial and commercial innovators and the much larger but still tiny minority of imitators. And there is no doubt that India has an adequate supply of potential entrepreneurs, both innovators and imitators.”“In any economy, the major source of productive power is not machinery, equipment, buildings and other physical capital; it is the productive capacity of the human beings who compose the society. Yet what we call investment refers only to expenditures on physical capital; expenditures that improve the productive capacity of human beings are generally left entirely out of account. In the United States, for example, only about one-fifth of the total income is return to physical capital, four- fifths to human capital …. Destroy the physical plant of the United States and leave the skills of the people and it would take but a few years to restore the initial position. Destroy the skills and leave the plant and the level of output would sink irretrievably. The cathedrals of medieval Europe, the pyramids of Egypt, the monuments of the Moghul Empire in India are all testimony to the possibility of a high rate of investment in physical capital without a growth in the standard of living of the masses of the people. These considerations are especially important for India, precisely because its frontier is the frontier of technical knowledge and skill.He then links India’s policies of protecting public sector enterprises with wastage of human power as follows: “India’s basic problem is the inefficient use of manpower; it is no solution to protect inefficiency, and the attempt to do so leads to a waste not only of human resources but also of physical capital. The extra money consumers have to pay for the products, let alone direct subsidies to producers could be channelled at least in part into investment.”His insight on where the Indian planning approach goes wrong is quite nuanced:“Planning” does not by itself have any very specific content. It can refer to a wide range of arrangements: to a largely laissez-faire society, in which individuals plan the use of their own resources and government’s role is limited to preserving law and order, enforcing private contracts, and constructing public works; to the recent French policy of mixing exhortation, prediction, and cooperative guesstimating ; to centralized control by a totalitarian government of the details of economic activity. Along still different dimension, Mark Spade (Nigel Balchin), in his wonderful book on How to Run a Bassoon Factory and Business defined the difference between a planned and an unplanned business in a way that often seems letter-perfect for India. “In an unplanned business”, he writes, “things just happen, i.e. they crop up. Life is full of unforeseen happenings and circumstances over which you have no control. On the other hand: In a planned business things still happen and crop up and so on, but you know exactly what would have been the state of affairs if they hadn’t”.In India, planning has come to have a very specific meaning, one that is patterned largely on the Russian model. It has meant a sequence of five-year plans, each attempting to specify the allocation of investment expenditures and productive capacity to different lines of activity, with great emphasis being placed on the expansion of the so-called “heavy” or “basic” industries. A Planning Commission in New Delhi is charged with drawing up the plans and supervising their implementation. There is some decentralization to the separate states but the general idea is centralized governmental control of the allocation of physical resources.He predicted that the Indian way of planning ignored time dynamics, and was doomed to fail for this reason.“So-called plans are laid out long in advance and it is exceedingly difficult to modify them as circumstances change. Inevitable and necessary bureaucratic procedures mean that the right hand does not know what the left hand is doing, that a long process of files going up the channels of communication and then coming back down is involved in adjusting to changing circumstances.”Of course, the Indian government’s obsession with exchange rate management caught his attention. There’s a long section on why overvaluation of the currency is counterproductive.“The attempt to maintain an over-valued rupee has had far reaching effects –as similar attempts have had in every other country that has tried to maintain an overvalued currency. The rise in internal prices without a change in the official price of foreign currency has made foreign goods seem cheap relative to domestic goods and so has encouraged attempts to increase imports; it has also made domestic goods seem expensive to foreign purchasers and so has discouraged exports. As a result, India’s recorded exports have risen much less than world trade on the whole, while the demand for imports has steadily expanded…The fact is that the planners cannot possibly know what they would have to know to ration exchange intelligently. Instead, they resort to the blunt axe of cutting out whole categories of imports; to the dead hand of the past, in allocating a certain percentage of imports in some base years; and to submission to influence, political and economic, which is brought to bear on them. And they have no alternative, since there is no sensible way they can do what they set out to do.The elimination of the exchange-controls and import and export restrictions is thus a most desirable objective of policy. It must be recognized, however, that it would probably increase the demand for foreign exchange, but the likelihood of an increase means that elimination of controls would have to be accompanied by the introduction of some other means of rationing exchange. It should be emphasized that this increase in the demand for foreign exchange is not a fresh problem that would be created by the elimination of exchange-controls. The problem is there now. That is why controls are deemed necessary. The question is whether there are not less harmful ways of solving it.Do read the two essays that the good folks at Centre for Civil Society have compiled into a small book. Thanks for reading Anticipating The Unintended! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.HomeWorkReading and listening recommendations on public policy matters[Speech] Monetary policy and inequality: Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB. [Article] “The optimal way forward (for climate transition) is a combination of electricity regulation at state governments, a carbon tax led by the union government, and a private electricity sector organised around the price system.” argue Akshay Jaitly and Ajay Shah.[Podcast] Over at Puliyabaazi, Pranay and Saurabh discuss the only election manifesto BR Ambedkar ever wrote. [Article] Pranay and Arjun opine in Hindustan Times that India needs one 20-year semiconductor strategy, not twenty 1-year incentive schemes. Subscribe at publicpolicy.substack.com

Quantitative Easing (QE) is a word that has been bounced around for some time now. I never understood what this sophisticated word meant. To be honest, I did not care until I understood it just enough. Now, I feel the need to understand a bit more because it will impact my personal finances in a very large way. QE will be broken down into simple concepts even a doctor (me and you) would understand.   Please email me if you have any feedback, comments, or suggestion for future topics: hmfhd2020@gmail.com

First, we find out that Aaron Rodgers paid Nathan Bitcoin. Then Luc and Nate announce a bet that, by the end of the episode, puts Nate in deep dept. Then it's onto our topic. First, we talk about bond prices, bond yields, and how they work together. Then we talk about the yield curve and why we want to talk about bonds. This includes how they impact the price of other assets. We then discuss the structure of the bond market and how the treasury auctions work. This leads to an explanation of the federal reserve and its powers and how it interacts with commercial banks. This gets us into quantitative easing and what happens when the bond market blows up. This leads to a discussion about what assets we own in light of this information and the last twenty minutes or so are all about how we think Bitcoin solves these issues. --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/idratherberight/message

Hello Everyone! Today on the show, I use a popular board game to explain how a central bank can increase the money supply in an economy.   ANNOUNCEMENT: I'll be taking a few weeks off from making the podcast. I have a test coming up for a professional designation that I will need to spend a lot of time studying for. I'll be back by mid-November, so make sure to subscribe so you get notified when I'm back in business!   My Usual LinksWebsite: www.MainStFinance.orgShow Email address: Mainstfinance@gmail.comTwitter Account: @MainStMoneyYouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxWzLF_ZCgeDJ6PcIovg9ww

O especialista em multimercados Rodrigo Natali explica o que é e como funciona o Quantitative Easing (QE), ferramenta adotada pelo Banco Central americano de estímulo à economia.

Kim starts out strong with the Battle of Ideas, Freedom vs Force-Force vs. Freedom, adding coercion as a new element of force. It has been reported that Polis is setting up a $1 million lottery to incentivize people to get the “COVID vaccination,” which in reality is an experimental drug that has not been approved by the FDA. Kim apologizes for the challenges Thursday regarding the Candid COVID Conversation and notes that the recording of the web event is online without any interruptions. HB21-1321 Voter Transparency in Ballot Measures is based on envy, is dishonest, and will grow government. The Lundberg Newsletter sums up the disastrous Colorado session this year-based on bills that will most probably be signed by the governor regarding limiting your Second Amendment rights, Colorado's haven for illegal aliens, transportation and taxes, global warming crisis narrative, public health option, shutting down our electric utilities, and election integrity. Jason McBride, Vice President with Presidential Wealth Management, sees underlying pressure with market selling. There are strong earnings reports coming out. Jason offers, with no obligation, a risk assessment of your portfolio. Give Jason a call at 303-694-1600. Guest Jay Davidson, CEO and Founder of First American State Bank, addresses the collusion between big government and big business as they are the two most powerful entities and go hand-in-hand to influence policy and kill competition. The “revolving financial chair” is one example of the interweaving of the two as the same people go in and out of government filling top financial positions. The Battle of Ideas is an ideology based on freedom of the individual or control by the state citing government as the solution. Our Constitutional Republic is not about having people dependent on government but instead recognizing the rights of the individual to flourish and prosper. Jay explains “velocity of money” and its impact on inflation. Quantitative Easing (QE) is harming the economy as the Treasury Department is printing money to keep up with Congressional spending. Jay notes that we have not yet seen the economic effects of possible trillions of dollars of spending under the Biden/Harris/Rice administration policies. Elon Musk is a great example of how someone who is extremely smart and innovative has taken advantage of government subsidies that begs the question, “Why can't electric cars stand on their own without the use of taxpayer's money?” Many will remember the Solyndra debacle and wasted money. Jay ends with Benjamin Franklin's words, I give you “A Republic, if you can keep it.”

As positive COVID-19 data points to the effectiveness of the vaccine roll-out, confidence in the bounce back of the UK economy is growing. Will this mean an upgrade to GDP forecasts at the Bank of England policy update this week? Lee Hardman, currency analyst at MUFG, outlines what to expect from the update, including outlook for the pound and Quantitative Easing (QE) purchases. Lee also touches on the upcoming Scottish Parliament elections – could another independence referendum be on the cards? Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Quantitative easing, stimulus package, government intervention. This episode answers "what is qe" from an economic perspective and covers the basics to give you a better understanding of what it means.RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide impersonal quantitative research through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Performance results are hypothetical and all trades are simulated. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Join Adam Hetts, Global Head of Portfolio Construction and Strategy, as he speaks with Co-Heads of Strategic Fixed Income Jenna Barnard and John Pattullo about whether there is substance to the reflation trade. Key Takeaways: The consensus trade expects inflation, but much of this may already be priced in, creating potential opportunities in medium-term bond yields if inflation proves transitory. An excess of private savings before COVID-19 required governments to spend to balance private-sector saving. In some ways, today’s fiscal stimulus is an extension of the response to the deleveraging environment that lingered after the Global Financial Crisis. For reflation to be convincing, we need to see evidence that households and businesses are changing their behavior toward taking on more debt – yet credit demand remains soft and markets seem to be ignoring weaker data in China. Important Information: Credit Spread is the difference in yield between securities with similar maturity but different credit quality. Widening spreads generally indicate deteriorating creditworthiness of corporate borrowers, and narrowing indicate improving. Duration measures a bond price’s sensitivity to changes in interest rates. The longer a bond’s duration, the higher its sensitivity to changes in interest rates and vice versa. 10-Year Treasury Yield is the interest rate on U.S. Treasury bonds that will mature 10 years from the date of purchase. Volatility measures risk using the dispersion of returns for a given investment. Inflation: a general increase in prices and fall in the purchasing value of money. Basis point (bp) equals 1/100 of a percentage point. 1 bp = 0.01%, 100 bps = 1%. Quantitative Easing (QE) is a government monetary policy occasionally used to increase the money supply by buying government securities or other securities from the market. Reflation:  expansion in the level of output of an economy by government stimulus, using either fiscal or monetary policy. The views presented are as of the date published. Nothing in this document is intended to or should be construed as advice. This document is not a recommendation to sell or purchase any investment and does not form part of any contract for the sale or purchase of any investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing is subject to risk, loss of principal and fluctuation in value.  Not all products or services are available in all jurisdictions. This material or information contained in it may be restricted by law, and may not be reproduced or referred to without express written permission or used in any jurisdiction or circumstance in which its use would be unlawful. Janus Henderson is not responsible for any unlawful distribution to third parties, in whole or in part. The contents have not been approved or endorsed by any regulatory agency.  Janus Henderson Investors is the name under which investment products and services are provided in (a) Europe by Janus Capital International Limited (reg no. 3594615), Henderson Global Investors Limited (reg. no. 906355), Henderson Investment Funds Limited (reg. no. 2678531), Henderson Equity Partners Limited (reg. no.2606646), (each registered in England and Wales at 201 Bishopsgate, London EC2M 3AE and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority) and Henderson Management S.A. (reg no. B22848 at 2 Rue de Bitbourg, L-1273, Luxembourg and regulated by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier) (b) the U.S. by SEC registered investment advisers that are subsidiaries of Janus Henderson Group plc, (c) Canada through Janus Capital Management LLC only to institutional investors in certain jurisdictions, (d) Singapore and South Korea by Janus Henderson Investors (Singapore) Limited, (e) Hong Kong by Janus Henderson Investors Hong Kong Limited. This material has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission , (f) Taiwan R.O.C. independently operated by Janus...

Stephen Roach is a Senior Fellow at Yale’s Jackson Institute for Global Affairs and a Senior Lecturer at Yale’s School of Management, where his research and teaching focus on the impacts of Asia on the global economy. One of Wall Street’s most influential economists, Prof. Roach spent more than 30 years at Morgan Stanley, where he was the Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and the bank’s Chief Economist. He has written extensively on globalization, trade policy, and international finance. Last October, Prof. Roach published an article in the Financial Times titled “The end of the dollar’s exorbitant privilege.” He argues that the dollar could fall as much as 35 percent by the end of 2021. In this interview, Prof. Roach walks us through the reasoning behind his arguments and discusses the economic and political significance of a dollar crash, mainly pointing to two metrics – a decline in domestic savings and an increase in the current account deficit. Domestic savings was at 1.4% of national income in Q1 2020, compared to the 45-year average of ~7%. The current account deficit plunged to -3.5% of GDP in the second quarter, the sharpest quarterly decline on record, and the massive stimulus package will further blow up the deficit. What are the implications of such a dramatic dollar crash in valuation, both in the U.S. and abroad? How have the current monetary and fiscal policy regimes exacerbated this issue? And is there anything the U.S. can do to prevent the fall of the dollar? We also touch on another important market trend: the rise of Bitcoin. Despite the cryptocurrency’s increasing popularity and legitimacy among institutional investors and corporations – most notably Elon Musk and Tesla – Prof. Roach is skeptical about its potential as a global currency. We discuss the implications of Bitcoin’s rise and the difficulty of valuing an asset with no traditional fundamentals. On one hand, Tiger argues that Bitcoin has never been supported by fundamentals but always by narratives and people’s faith in it. As long as the faith for Bitcoin is strong enough, as long as people’s doubt on the dollar and other forms of assets are strong enough, and as long as the hunt for yield continues, Bitcoin’s price will just keep shooting up. Prof. Roach counter-argues that by definition speculative bubbles do not go on forever; they always burst. When an asset turns into a speculative bubble, that means people are buying the asset just under the expectation that the prices will keep going up. So by definition, it’s an investor play on price appreciation that is detached from the fundamental value of the asset. That detachment can go on for a lot longer than we think, but ultimately it reasserts itself when the price point involved, for reasons that are very different for each asset, gets so far detached that just the slightest, inconsequential shifts can lead to the bursting of the bubble. Lastly, having spent the bulk of his career on Wall Street, Prof. Roach critiques the Fed’s monetary policy in the past few decades and reflects on his own forecasting career. He addresses the impact of the Fed’s rapid balance sheet expansion, which some argue is inflating prices of financial assets held by the private sector and, in doing so, primarily benefiting the wealthy. Do there exist more equitable ways of stimulating the economy besides Quantitative Easing (QE)? And, if so, what can the Fed do to implement them? This is a far-reaching conversation beyond mere topics of the dollar dominance, Bitcoin, and the GameStop saga. It’s about piecing together the large macro-financial trends we’ve witnessed in the past few decades and trying to make sense of what might come next.

Welcome to episode two of Showing Up with Babs and Eve. In this episode we update you on week one of Power Hour and how we're finding this challenge, we reflect on our experience 2020, as well as chat about what we've been watching, reading and listening to. We delve deep into what's going on in the world of education, and Babs discussing why the world seems to revolve around the USA. So get yourself comfortable! And if you'd like to join us in our challenge, or you would like to share your thoughts on anything discussed, please send us an email at showingupbabseve@gmail.com Music - Funky Garden by Ketsa. FreeMusicLibrary.org //Watching/Reading/Listening// Eve Watching: - The Great Pottery Throwdown (2015-) Available on Channel 4 Sunday Nights 7:45/8pm - Grizzly Man (2005) Directed by Werner Herzog Available on Amazon Prime Video - The Trial of the Chicago 7 (2020) Directed by Aaron Sorkin Available on Netflix Reading: - More Plants Less Waste: Plant-based Recipes + Zero Waste Life Hacks with Purpose (2019) Written by Max La Manna Listening: - Bicep - Isles (2021) Bicep - Apricots. Music video directed by Mark Jenkin https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uwrq9lZ9Ngs Bicep Global Livestream II - Tickets available at: https://dice.fm/event/xm3kk-bicep-live-global-stream-ii-at-saatchi-gallery-830pm-gmt-26th-feb-uk-830pm-gmt-london-tickets Babs Watching: - Watching the Hills Whitney Port's YouTube Channel - Ice Dancing Canadian Team Scott Moir Tessa Virtue Available on YouTube Reading: - Linchpin (2010) By Seth Godin //Why the world seems to revolve around the US?// - Petrodollar system (https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-a-petrodollar-3306358) - USA deficit (https://datalab.usaspending.gov/americas-finance-guide/deficit/trends/) - Quantitative Easing (QE) (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/q/quantitative-easing.asp) - Government IOU (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/iou.asp) - The Federal Bank of America (https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/finance/federal-reserve-the-fed/) - Cryptocurrency (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cryptocurrency.asp) - Iraq War (https://www.britannica.com/event/Iraq-War) - How the US stole Iraq (https://youtu.be/C8YlGkoYXXM)

Hayo siapa yang kemarin bingung waktu denger Episode 18 kemarin kok banyak bahasa dewanya!? Yap, di episode ini kita bakal belajar bareng tentang 3 istilah yang kemarin sempet dibahas, yaitu Short-sell ato 'Jual Kosong', Quantitative Easing (QE) ato Pelonggaran Kuantitatif, dan PEN ato Pemulihan Ekonomi Nasional. Nahnah, daripada cape baca kepsiyen nya, yuk langsung dengerin aja, kei? :D Music : Philip E Morris - Golden Days

The 30-year collapse in interest rates has delivered exceptional returns to investors as the value of their bonds has increased. Yet with money printing and Quantitative Easing (QE) occurring across the globe, experts are growing increasingly concerned about inflation in the years to come. As inflation increases, so do interest rates, potentially resulting in capital losses on traditional long-term Government bond investments. Yet as March exhibited, Government bonds continue to offer protection in periods of market volatility. In this session we will discuss an alternative approach to investing into low-risk bonds and how you can achieve both consistent income (above 1%) and some capital growth regardless of movements in interest rates.The information contained on this web site is general in nature and does not take into account your personal situation. You should consider whether the information is appropriate to your needs, and where appropriate, seek professional advice from a financial adviser.

We are once again joined by Dubai’s financial guru Hamdy Hamoudi to discuss some of potential impacts that we can expect during the coming months. We touch on key subjects such as the impact of Quantitative Easing (QE) on the US dollar and if we can expect a collapse of the macro economic system. We also get his opinion on investing in Gold and Bitcoin for future protection on devaluation. Stay In Your Lane PodcastGUEST: Hamdy Hamoudi

Quantitative Easing (QE), once considered unconventional monetary policy, is becoming a long-term strategy of central banks. Michael Knox, Chief Economist of Morgans, a major Australian wealth management firm, discusses his recent note on this issue with Economics Explored host Gene Tunny.Relevant links include:Michael Knox’s note QE as a long-term strategyBen Bernanke’s AEA Presidential Address on the New Tools of Monetary PolicyGuy Debelle’s speech on the Australian Economy and Monetary PolicyUS money supply (M2) data from FREDMoney supply growth chart for Australia from RBAA conversation with Professor Alan Blinder '67 and Chair Jerome Powell '75Robert Heller’s IMF paper on International Reserves, Money, and Global Inflation (from p. 28)

Most people's lives are dedicated to money. It's all people ever worry about or talk about. People train to learn the skills to get jobs to trade hours of their lives for money. But where does this money come from? And who controls it? What does it mean when you hear the terms Fractional Reserve Lending, Fiat Currency, or the Gold Standard? The fact of the matter is, the US Dollar is the single most popular currency in the world, and is the dominant reserve currency in use around the globe. The USD is often called "The Greenback" in reference to its green coloring and can often be a favorite vehicle of traders looking to buy assets from or in The United States. When risk aversion runs high, traders will often look to buy US Treasuries, which can create demand for US Dollars. How does the Federal Reserve print money and in the end, who has to pay for it? What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and where does the trillions of dollars printed, end up going? Does printing dollars out of thin air cause inflation, and if so, why does the fed continue to do it? Most people don't realize that the Federal Reserve is not a government agency, they are in fact, a private bank which can not be governed or influenced by the U.S. Government or any other public or private entity. How can trillions of dollars continue to be printed out and given to people and businesses that are already rich, when most of the citizens of this country only get hundreds of dollars through a temporary stimulus plan? I encourage anyone listening to this podcast to read several books out there that go into detail about this subject. This will allow you to prepare for what's possibly coming next. --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/therelevancepodcast/message Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/therelevancepodcast/support

Quantitative easing is a form of unconventional monetary policy in which a central bank purchases longer-term securities from the open market in order to increase the money supply and encourage lending and investment. QE usually involves the central bank purchasing longer-term government bonds as well as other types of assets such as mortgage-backed securities.Buying these securities adds new money to the economy, and also serves to lower interest rates by bidding up fixed-income securities. It also greatly expands the central bank's balance sheet.If quantitative easing itself loses effectiveness, fiscal policy, or government spending, may be used to further expand the money supply. In effect, quantitative easing can even blur the line between monetary and fiscal policy, if the assets purchased consist of long term government bonds that are being issued to finance counter-cyclical deficit spending.Quantitative easing can devalue the domestic currency. For manufacturers, this may help stimulate growth because exported goods would be cheaper in the global market. However, a falling currency value makes imports more expensive, which can increase the cost of production and consumer price levels.

Teil 02 des Gesprächs mit Aaron Sahr zu monetärer Souveränität und Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Im Zuge wiederkehrender Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrisen stellt der Staat immer wieder gigantische Mengen an Geld zur Verfügung, um kapitalistisches Wirtschaften zu "retten". Woher kommt dieses Geld und warum steht es für bestimmte Zwecke scheinbar unbegrenzt zur Verfügung und für andere nicht? Aaron Sahr leitet die Forschungsgruppe "Monetäre Souveränität" am Hamburger Institut für Sozialforschung und hat auf diese Fragen Antworten.   Shownotes Homepage von Aaron Sahr: https://aaron-sahr.de/ Aaron Sahr beim HIS (Hamburger Institut für Sozialforschung): https://www.his-online.de/personen/personen-detail/person/aaron-sahr/ Aaron Sahr bei Twitter: https://twitter.com/AufAnfang Buch "Das Versprechen des Geldes" von Aaron Sahr: https://www.hamburger-edition.de/buecher-e-books/artikel-detail/d/2107/Das_Versprechen_des_Geldes_%28Print%29/5/ Buch "Ungleichheit auf Knopfdruck" von Aaron Sahr: https://www.bpb.de/shop/buecher/schriftenreihe/287262/ungleichheit-auf-knopfdruck Soziopolis-Aufsatzreihe zu monetärer Souveränität von Friedo Karth, Carolin Müller und Aaron Sahr: Teil I - "Geld in privaten Händen": https://www.soziopolis.de/beobachten/wirtschaft/artikel/geld-in-privaten-haenden/ Teil II - "Staatliche Zahlungs(un)fähigkeit": https://www.soziopolis.de/beobachten/wirtschaft/artikel/staatliche-zahlungsunfaehigkeit/ Teil III - "Geldschöpfungspolitik": https://www.soziopolis.de/beobachten/politik/artikel/geldschoepfungspolitik/ Wiki zu Modern Monetary Theory: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Monetary_Theory Jacobin Artikel "Modern Monetary Theory Isn't Helping" von Doug Henwood: https://jacobinmag.com/2019/02/modern-monetary-theory-isnt-helping Reuters Artikel zu Quantitative Easing (QE): https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-ecb-qe/the-life-and-times-of-ecb-quantitative-easing-2015-18-idUSKBN1OB1SM Philipp Staab "Digitaler Kapitalismus - Markt und Herrschaft in der Ökonomie der Unknappheit": https://www.suhrkamp.de/buecher/digitaler_kapitalismus-philipp_staab_7515.htmlhttps://philippstaab.de/ Homepage Stephanie Kelton: https://stephaniekelton.com/ Buch "The Deficit Myth: Modern Monetary Theory and the Birth of the People's Economy" von Stephanie Kelton: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/45731395-the-deficit-myth Buch "The Case for a Job Guarantee" von Pavlina R. Tcherneva: http://pavlina-tcherneva.net/the-case-for-a-job-guarantee/ Homepage Daniela Gabor: https://criticalfinance.org/ Homepage Benjamin Braun: https://www.benjaminbraun.org DFG Netzwerk Politics of Money: http://www.politicsofmoney.org/ Aufsatz "Geld, Weltmarkt und monetäre Dependenz" von Kai Koddenbrock: https://prokla.de/index.php/PROKLA/article/view/1541 Homepage Dirk Ehnts: https://www.dirk-ehnts.de/ aktuelle Ausgabe des Economist (25.7.2020) "Free money: When government spending knows no limits": https://www.economist.com/weeklyedition/2020-07-25 Wiki zu John Maynard Keynes: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Maynard_Keynes Wiki zu Hyman P. Minski: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyman_P._Minsky Wiki Lionel Robbins: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lionel_Robbins Homepage Perry G. Merling: http://sites.bu.edu/perry/   Wenn euch Future Histories gefällt, dann erwägt doch bitte eine Unterstützung auf Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/join/FutureHistories? Schreibt mir unter office@futurehistories.today Diskutiert mit auf Twitter (#FutureHistories): https://twitter.com/FutureHpodcast oder auf Reddit https://www.reddit.com/r/FutureHistories/ www.futurehistories.today   Episode Keywords: #Podcast, #FutureHistories, #Interview, #AaronSahr, #Ungleichheit, #Finanzpolitik, #DasVersprechenDesGeldes, #Geldtheorie, #Geldsystem, #MauriceHöfgen, #Geldpolitik, #MMT, #ModernMonetaryTheory, #GreenNewDeal, #JobGarantie, #BGE, #BedingungslosesGrundeinkommen, #MythosGeldknappheit, #Geldschöpfungspolitik, #Arbeitslosigkeit, #MonetäreSouveränität, #Kreditschöpfung, #Regierungspolitik, #Postkeynesianismus, #Gouvernementalität

Im Zuge wiederkehrender Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrisen stellt der Staat immer wieder gigantische Mengen an Geld zur Verfügung, um kapitalistisches Wirtschaften zu "retten". Woher kommt dieses Geld und warum steht es für bestimmte Zwecke scheinbar unbegrenzt zur Verfügung und für andere nicht? Aaron Sahr leitet die Forschungsgruppe "Monetäre Souveränität" am Hamburger Institut für Sozialforschung und hat auf diese Fragen Antworten. Shownotes Homepage von Aaron Sahr: https://aaron-sahr.de/ Aaron Sahr beim HIS (Hamburger Institut für Sozialforschung): https://www.his-online.de/personen/personen-detail/person/aaron-sahr/ Aaron Sahr bei Twitter: https://twitter.com/AufAnfang Buch "Das Versprechen des Geldes" von Aaron Sahr: https://www.hamburger-edition.de/buecher-e-books/artikel-detail/d/2107/Das_Versprechen_des_Geldes_%28Print%29/5/ Buch "Ungleichheit auf Knopfdruck" von Aaron Sahr: https://www.bpb.de/shop/buecher/schriftenreihe/287262/ungleichheit-auf-knopfdruck Soziopolis-Aufsatzreihe zu monetärer Souveränität von Friedo Karth, Carolin Müller und Aaron Sahr: Teil I - "Geld in privaten Händen": https://www.soziopolis.de/beobachten/wirtschaft/artikel/geld-in-privaten-haenden/ Teil II - "Staatliche Zahlungs(un)fähigkeit": https://www.soziopolis.de/beobachten/wirtschaft/artikel/staatliche-zahlungsunfaehigkeit/ Teil III - "Geldschöpfungspolitik": https://www.soziopolis.de/beobachten/politik/artikel/geldschoepfungspolitik/ Wiki zu Modern Monetary Theory: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Monetary_Theory Jacobin Artikel "Modern Monetary Theory Isn't Helping" von Doug Henwood: https://jacobinmag.com/2019/02/modern-monetary-theory-isnt-helping Reuters Artikel zu Quantitative Easing (QE): https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-ecb-qe/the-life-and-times-of-ecb-quantitative-easing-2015-18-idUSKBN1OB1SM Philipp Staab "Digitaler Kapitalismus - Markt und Herrschaft in der Ökonomie der Unknappheit": https://www.suhrkamp.de/buecher/digitaler_kapitalismus-philipp_staab_7515.htmlhttps://philippstaab.de/ Homepage Stephanie Kelton: https://stephaniekelton.com/ Buch "The Deficit Myth: Modern Monetary Theory and the Birth of the People's Economy" von Stephanie Kelton: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/45731395-the-deficit-myth Buch "The Case for a Job Guarantee" von Pavlina R. Tcherneva: http://pavlina-tcherneva.net/the-case-for-a-job-guarantee/ Homepage Daniela Gabor: https://criticalfinance.org/ Homepage Benjamin Braun: https://www.benjaminbraun.org DFG Netzwerk Politics of Money: http://www.politicsofmoney.org/ Aufsatz "Geld, Weltmarkt und monetäre Dependenz" von Kai Koddenbrock: https://prokla.de/index.php/PROKLA/article/view/1541 Homepage Dirk Ehnts: https://www.dirk-ehnts.de/ aktuelle Ausgabe des Economist (25.7.2020) "Free money: When government spending knows no limits": https://www.economist.com/weeklyedition/2020-07-25   Wenn euch Future Histories gefällt, dann erwägt doch bitte eine Unterstützung auf Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/join/FutureHistories? Schreibt mir unter office@futurehistories.today Diskutiert mit auf Twitter (#FutureHistories): https://twitter.com/FutureHpodcast oder auf Reddit https://www.reddit.com/r/FutureHistories/ www.futurehistories.today   Episode Keywords: #Podcast, #FutureHistories, #Interview, #AaronSahr, #Ungleichheit, #Finanzpolitik, #DasVersprechenDesGeldes, #Geldtheorie, #Geldsystem, #MauriceHöfgen, #Geldpolitik, #MMT, #ModernMonetaryTheory, #GreenNewDeal, #JobGarantie, #BGE, #BedingungslosesGrundeinkommen, #MythosGeldknappheit, #Geldschöpfungspolitik, #Arbeitslosigkeit, #MonetäreSouveränität, #Kreditschöpfung, #Regierungspolitik, #Postkeynesianismus, #Gouvernementalität

Global ratings agency, Fitch estimates that the value of Quantitative Easing (QE) implemented this year could reach $9 trillion! To put that in context, that is equal to more than half the cumulative total global QE that occurred between 2009 and 2018! The Federal Reserve in the US has alone pumped $4 trillion into the market over the past 11 weeks. This is absolutely unprecedented.Should investors be worried about the long-term impact of all this money printing (QE)? What are the risks that we need to be aware of?The role of central banksCentral banks around the world are in charge of monetary policy. The aim of monetary policy is to ensure a healthy economy and an inflation rate that is within the stated goal.When the economic activity increases and the economy approaches fully capacity, inflation can begin to increase. In this situation, the central bank would normally increase interest rates (to reduce corporate profits and consumer spending) to cool economic demand. If the economy slows down, the central bank can cut rates to stimulate demand again.Interest rates is a central bank’s primary tool.But what can a central bank do when rates are at or close to zero? Of course, they can contemplate negative interest rates (e.g. in Germany, banks are paying borrowers to take out loans), but that is largely ineffective.What is QE?When interest rates stop being an effective monetary policy tool, central banks start to consider more unconventional mechanisms such as QE. QE is the process of a central bank buying assets such as bonds. They do that by issuing new currency i.e. increasing money supply (often referred to as money printing). The aim is to stimulate the economy as a whole through injecting more money into the economy.The US Federal Reserve started buying Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) in 2009 to help the US recover from the impact of the GFC. The idea is that lenders could sell MBS to the Fed Reserve to raise funds. In doing so, banks would then have more funds to lend to property investors and homeowners. In turn this should stimulate demand for housing and aid in the property market’s recovery. To a large degree, it worked.QE is not limited to MBS, however. Central banks can buy other assets including corporate bonds and even equities, which Bank of Japan has done. Central banks can target certain sectors of the economy if they so choose.What has happened this year?Most central banks around the globe have participated in QE, including Australia’s RBA, the US Fed Reserve, Bank of England, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan. For the most part, the QE programs have been much wider than what they were during the GFC. Central banks have been buying corporate bonds (the aim is to increase lending to the SME sector) and Exchange Traded Funds (some of which invest in non-investment-grade corporate bonds, which is seen as aggressive).As noted in my opening paragraph, Fitch estimates that the total value of global QE in 2020 to be circa $9 trillion (AUD)!The RBA has been providing money to Australian banks at a fixed rate of 0.25% for 3 years to promote lending to home owners and businesses. That is why fixed rates have been so attractive lately.What impact will QE have on our investments?A study conducted by Wharton Business School indicated one of the possible impacts of QE is that it can crowd out other types of lending. For example, during the GFC the Fed Reserve focused on buying MBS which are used to fund residential property. As such, the banks focused on this market to the detriment of business/corporate lending.Such a focus on one type of lending could be problematic because the housing market doesn’t generate economic activity to the same extent that lending to businesses does. Also, it could create asset price bubbles.Main criticisms of QEThere are two main criticisms of QE.The first criticism is that central banks are interfering with a free market and artificially influencing asset prices. In a free market, the market participants set the prices of assets (investments).What happened when Covid hit for example, was that no one wanted to buy bonds, even seemingly ‘safe’, investment-grade bonds. This created a liquidity crisis for investors as they weren’t able to sell. Also, bond issuers were unable to renegotiate facilities. Such a crisis could have greatly exacerbated the impact of the Covid event. As such, central banks intervened and provided this much needed liquidity.However, free market supporters would argue that such intervention results in artificial prices and alters an investors risk premium i.e. it may be seen that some investments won’t be allowed to fail. The government can’t jump in and rescue investors every time something goes wrong.The second main criticism is that QE could cause inflation. Inflation can occur because as the volume of printed money in circulation increases, money becomes more abundant and the value of $1 falls. For example, as a result, a loaf of bread now costs you $3 instead of $2.QE has been used in the US since 2009 but has not yet led to higher inflation. There are a few reasons cited for this including the idea that the additional money is hoarded (saved, not spent) by individuals and corporations. Secondly, wage inflation has been below trend which has offset the effect of an increase in money supply. If QE did start to create inflation, central banks could curtail it by increasing interest rates.The future of monetary policyIt will be very interesting to see what happens to interest rates over the next few decades. The big question is whether economies and markets will be able to support higher interest rates sometime in the future. For example, Japan has been stuck on near zero interest rates for about 25 years.If interest rates remain persistently low for a number of years, then QE is almost certainly likely to remain in place. The Fed Reserve tried to reduce its balance sheet (i.e. unwind QE) over 2018 and most of 2019 but only very gradually, as depicted by the chart. However, every time the Fed Reserve talks about reducing is asset purchases, share markets get the jitters.Long term impact of QE is unknownIt is difficult to assess whether QE has had a long-term impact on investment markets including the stock market, as so many factors have changed over time. Isolating the impact of just one factor (such as QE) is near on impossible.Endlessly printing money and buying assets when investors desert a market doesn’t seem like very wise practices to me. If we agree that these activities can result in artificially inflated prices for assets, then I guess the key is to avoid such potentially overinflated assets. For example, is car manufacture Tesla really worth nearly $230 billion? This is twice the value of CBA. It has never recorded a profit. Its debt has increased by 500% over the past 5 years. And its net assets are worth less than $10 billion.Gold is a natural inflationary hedgeInvesting in gold can provide a natural hedge against inflation (if you think that is a risk). There are a number of gold EFT’s available on the ASX. Of course, most investors already have a small amount of indirect exposure to gold if they invest in index funds (e.g. via companies such as Newcrest Mining).But given gold prices are approaching all-time highs, and QE hasn’t caused inflationary pressure over the past decade, I don’t think this is a very attractive investment.The best response to QE is to avoid overvalued marketsIt’s impossible to know what the long-term impact of QE will be. Inflation certainly doesn’t appear to be a major risk at this point. It is possible that QE has artificially influenced prices of some assets (US stocks?), but it’s impossible to tell for sure.The best way to manage the potential risks of QE is to avoid investing in markets, sectors and companies that are trading at unjustifiably high valuation multiples. For example, Warren Buffett didn’t invest in any tech companies in the early 2000’s because he didn’t understand their valuations. In the end, the dot-com bubble proved it was a very wise decision.Remember, your starting valuation is perhaps the best indicator of future expected returns (as long as your investment methodology is sound and robust).

Despite the Federal Reserve's unprecedented radical measures in the recent weeks, apparently that still hasn't been enough to solve the stresses in the market. As this morning, #theFed just announced that it is making its quantitative easing program unlimited. Yes, you read that correctly. Now the Federal Reserve is going to purchase unlimited amounts of debt, including treasury debt, and anything else that the markets won't fund. So to find out what's going on, click to listen now!

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts or Podbean here. In this episode we will discuss: whether the housing market is recovering; when the RBA will cut rates; what the banks will pass through; if and when RBA Quantitative Easing (QE) comes; the asset-class impacts; the search for yield dynamic; and much more… This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. Any performance data presented on this site is pre-fees for institutional clients that negotiate custom fee rates, and these solutions are not available to retail investors. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.

In today's episode, Marcelo López talked to Marc Faber, editor and publisher of the famous report Gloom Boom & Doom and a contrarian investor known for bold investment decisions in the past. Marcelo begins the conversation by asking about the behaviour of markets from December 2018 to the present. Marc Faber attributes the December declines and reaction seen in 2019 to a number of factors, including the Fed’s capitulation, Modern Monetary Theory and the flow of investor’s capital. He also brings his perspective to the stock market in 2019 and comments on the possibility of a crash. Following on, Marc discusses the monetary policy of the Fed and other central banks, about their recent decisions, asset bubble, Quantitative Easing (QE) and his expectation regarding the next steps that will be taken by the American central bank. He also talks about the economy in some European economies, in the US, in Japan and in China. Marc Faber comments on the possibility of a recession in the US and China, for which he makes an interesting sector analysis, highlighting sectors that may suffer great contraction and others that may even benefit by an expansion. Marc then reflects on the impacts of monetary expansionism on the real economy, on the effectiveness of this kind of policy as a growth stimulus and he cites the examples of Japan and Europe. Faber, who has almost 50 years of investment experience, talks about negative interest rates and gives his opinion on why investors would look for assets with this so unusual feature. When questioned about where to find yield at the moment, Marc Faber talks about the countries he follows in Asia, especially Vietnam. As for his expectation on the foreign exchange market, he mentions some emerging currencies and what he thinks about how the US dollar should behave in the long run. When it came to America versus Emerging Markets stock market, Faber offers his insights into how the relative pricing between them is at the moment and what he considers the best strategy to profit from this difference. Regarding commodities, Marc stated specific examples of how some types may perform according to the global economic environment and also gave his assessment as to the current pricing of the asset class as a whole. Specifically on gold, Faber talks about his views on the metal as a form of investment, especially in the current context of high liquidity injected by central banks. Finally, Marc highlighted those he believes are the main risks to the financial markets and asset prices, such as the issue of political polarization and China's slowdown. To know more about L2 Capital Partners, please check out our website! The L2 Capital Podcast focuses on potential opportunities in the market, and brings to you industry leaders and intelligent conversation about their respective areas of expertise.

I denne uges har vi besøg af iværksætter og tidligere investmentbanker Kaspar Bonde Eriksen til en snak om pengepolitikken Quantitative Easing (QE/kvantiative lempelse), kommende finanskrise scenarier og hvordan vi skaber en mere stabil økonomi. QE har efterhånden gjort centralbankerne til nogle af verdens største formueforvaltere. Hvad betyder det for økonomien? Er det overhovedet muligt at rulle det tilbage? Og hvad i alverden går QE overhovedet ud på? Dette og meget mere taler vi om i dette afsnit. God lytter.

How is the economic mission of the Trump administration playing out so far? Scott, Greg, and John discuss “Tax Cuts 2.0,” which unicorn-laden sector is going to feel a lot of pain in a higher interest rate environment, and why some big financial corporations received a government bailout in 2008-2009 and others did not. Is the US still the best investment house on the block? Scott weighs in on the Facebook data breach that led to a huge sell off in the stock - erasing over $35 Billion in value and counting.   Greg breaks down the latest technicals on bitcoin. What level does bitcoin need to hold for the bullish trend to stay in place? Are cryptos now safe-haven trades when stocks drop? John asks Greg to tell you why Central Banks around the world have their work cut out for them to balance the other side of the Quantitative Easing (QE) equation with Quantitative Tightening (QT). Scott tells you what to expect from the Fed announcement this week, and what higher interest rates might mean for the markets moving forward.

Porter goes for round two in his critical review of the annual shareholder’s letter from Berkshire Hathaway (BRK). The most important details are not what’s included in the letter from Warren Buffett, but it’s what’s missing that has Porter wondering if the Oracle of Omaha has lost his touch. Has the fundamental investment philosophy that has proven to work so well for Berkshire been altered? Will Buffett ever beat the S&P 500 ever again with the current makeup of Berkshire’s holdings?   Buck and Porter welcome economist and author Richard Duncan to the show. Richard talks about how the Fed is running behind on the Quantitative Tightening (QT) schedule it set for itself in 2017 to unwind the Quantitative Easing (QE) put in motion back in 2008-2009. Any QT or “crowding out” from the government’s trillion-dollar-a-year budget deficits are likely to be a toxic combination for investors. Richard says the US could be headed for another recession if the Fed continues to tighten as planned.   Porter  answers listener questions about autonomous vehicles and their potential future impact on insurance premiums, and how the type of corporate bonds covered at Stansberry Research are quite different than what most people think.

In this week’s episode, Grant Williams joins Preston and Stig for an interesting discussion about the FED's decision to start conducting quantitative tightening (QT). Since QT is the opposite of Quantitative Easing (QE), we should expect the opposite market results. Check out this week's episode to see what Grant think about the FED's new announcement and how it will impact markets around the world.Click here to get full access to our show notes.In this episode, you'll learn:What is quantitative easing and how does it work?Why Central Banks are buying stocksWhat the severe debt situation means for currenciesWhy Howard Marks changed his opinion on BitcoinAsk the Investors: How do I value stocks when the interest rate is so low?

For Beyond 50's "Finance" talks, listen to an interview with Peter Schiff. A renowned American broker and economist, he's sounding the alarm about America's coming bankruptcy. Schiff accurately predicted the Housing Crash of 2008 more than a year before it happened. He argues that our country is enjoying a government-inflated bubble - one that reality will explode...with disastrous consequences for the economy and for each of us. Zero interest rates and Quantitative Easing (QE) are enabling our government to issue endless debt. His prediction is that the financial crash of the U.S. dollar is likely to happen. Tune in to Beyond 50: America's Variety Talk Radio Show on the natural, holistic, green and sustainable lifestyle. Visit www.Beyond50Radio.com and sign up for our Exclusive Updates.

Nobody ever believed that such a crazy concept as “Negative Interest Rates” could exist in the real world, and certainly not in developed economies around the world simultaneously. But such is reality today. Negative interest rates and negative interest rate policies (“NIRP”, not to be confused with 0% interest rate policies or “ZIRP”), where a central bank charges the banks it regulates to hold their money, are now being more widely deployed. Believe it or not, countries accounting for a full quarter of global GDP now have negative interest rates, including the eurozone, Switzerland, and most recently Japan. Here in the US, we’re likely heading we’re likely to see yet another easing cycle from the US Federal Reserve, which might very well include negative interest rates (but might not -- more on that later). Why? Well, the Fed’s got a whole lot of excuses/reasons to cut its own rates and create new forms of Quantitative Easing (QE) and/or negative interest rates of its own. As I’ve been saying since late 2015, when the Fed finally raised rates from 0 to 0.25%, I don’t think we’re actually heading into a tightening cycle. And I fully expect that Janet Yellen and the Fed will get much more dovish, eventually cutting rates back to 0% and probably bringing back some form of QE and/or negative interest rates. In the weeks since I first started floating the idea that the Fed would go to negative interest rates and/or create another round of QE, the idea of us seeing negative interest rates here in the US has gone from far-fetched to quite likely. Now everybody’s trying to figure out what it means for them individually, for the stock market and for the economy writ large. This report is an attempt to explain how negative interest rates and a new easing cycle from the Federal Reserve in the context of the world’s larger currency wars will impact our world.

The dollar has been on a steady decline since Nixon took it off the gold standard in 1971.  The result is inflation and it's one of the reasons equity happens.Quantitative Easing (QE) is one of the significant contributing factors to a falling dollar.  As China becomes vocal in its calls to abandon the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency, alert investors are preparing their portfolios for a further falling dollar.What does all this mean for real estate investors?  And is there a way to profit?Tune in to this episode as The Guys discuss how real asset investing can help investors both survive and thrive the demise of the dollar.The Real Estate Guys™ radio show provides real estate investing news, education, training, perspectives and resources to help real estate investors succeed.  Learn more and subscribe to the free newsletter at www.realestateguysradio.com

Due to escalating tariffs and weakening demand, the International Monetary Fund predicts the Chinese gross domestic product will grow slowly at a rate of only 5.8% in 2020.   Today's Stocks & Topics: Bitcoin, Basic Valuations, Quantitative Easing (QE), U.S. Economy, Real Estate, OEC - Orion Engineered Carbons S.A., PM - Philip Morris International Inc., Retirement Plan, TSLA - Tesla Inc., WeWork, MCD - McDonald's Corp., Pessimistic Or Optimistic About The Market.   Plus: Key Benchmark Numbers and Market Comments for: Gold, Oil, Gasoline, Treasury Yields; TRIVIA QUESTION: "By year's end of 2019, HOW MANY BILLIONS of dollars will have been spent for digital advertising? AND-- for Google and Facebook--WHAT is the dollar value of their COMBINED digital advertising revenue?"Support this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/investtalk-investment-in-stock-market-financial-planning/donations

A noted economist says the economy and stocks are set to perform well for investors.   Today's Stocks & Topics: Apple & Cash, Housing, Happiest Country, Quantitative Easing – QE, BA - Boeing Co., Mortgages, Federal Reserve Buying Bonds, IAU - iShares Gold Trust, REGN - Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc., VRTX - Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc., 529 Plan.   TRIVIA QUESTION: "5 super companies make up a LARGE PERCENTAGE of the total value of the S&P 500. Can you name the companies-- and do you know their COMBINED valuation percentage of the S&P 500?"Support this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/investtalk-investment-in-stock-market-financial-planning/donations