Moody’s Talks – The Big Picture

Economists and investors are speculating about potential changes to US financial and exchange rate policies from a ‘Mar-a-Lago accord', a set of ideas which include weakening the dollar to boost US manufacturing. We'll dive into what it is and the potential impact on the global financial system. Host: William Foster, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings Guests: Mark Sobel, US chairman, Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF); Steven Kamin, Senior Fellow, American Enterprise Institute (AEI)

Five years ago, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic. In this episode, we delve into the performance of corporate credit quality since then, including the sectors that thrived or struggled, the hidden credit stories and strategies that improved resilience. Guests: Merxe Tudela, Associate Managing Director, Credit Strategy & Research, Moody's Ratings; Jessica Gladstone, Managing Director, Credit Strategy and Guidance, Moody's Ratings  Host: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings Related Research:Diverging fortunes: Credit recovery and lasting scars post-COVID 

A barrage of executive orders and tariff actions are keeping markets on edge. We'll dive into implications for a US economy that has outperformed expectations, the independence of government institutions and the Federal Reserve, and the outlook for already large fiscal deficits and debt.  Guests: Nathan Sheets, Global Chief Economist, Citi; Robert Sockin, Senior Global Economist, Citi Host: William Foster, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings

In this follow-up episode on the wildfires in southern California, we explore the consequences for the utilities sector of the City of Los Angeles. We'll dive into the immediate financial effects of disaster relief and lost revenue, as well as the risks from potential legal liabilities which could cost the city billions.  Guests: John Medina, Senior Vice President, Moody's Ratings; Lori Treviño, Assistant Vice President, Moody's Ratings Host: Colin Ellis, Head of Centre for Credit Research, Moody's Ratings 

The devastating ongoing wildfires in Los Angeles County are set to become the worst in California's history. In this episode, we discuss the effects on property owners, insurers and the state government, and what the damage could mean for the future of the insurance market in the state.Guests: Jasper Cooper, Vice President, Senior Credit Officer, Moody's Ratings; Matt Butler, Vice President, Senior Credit Officer, Moody's Ratings Host: Colin Ellis, Head of Centre for Credit Research, Moody's Ratings

In this episode, we unpack the new Moody's Ratings forecasts for the global economy and explain why there could be bright spots amid a myriad of risks. Join our analysts as they delve into topics like potential changes in US policy, the effects of stimulus on the Chinese economy, and whether Europe is headed for stagnation.Guests: Marie Diron, Global Head of Sovereign and Sub-Sovereign Risk at Moody's Ratings; Madhavi Bokil, Head of Macro Research at Moody's RatingsHost: Colin Ellis, Head of Center for Credit Research, Moody's Ratings

Policymakers and key stakeholders will soon converge on Baku, Azerbaijan for the 29th United Nations Climate Change Conference to find ways of boosting spending on climate initiatives. Rahul Ghosh, Global Head of Sustainable Finance, and Marie Diron, Global Head of Sovereign and Sub-Sovereign Risk at Moody's Ratings, discuss the challenges, potential solutions, and expectations.Speakers: Rahul Ghosh, Global Head of Sustainable Finance at Moody's Ratings; Marie Diron, Global Head of Sovereign and Sub-Sovereign Risk at Moody's RatingsHost: William Foster, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings 

In this joint Big Picture-Emerging Markets Decoded episode, our regional analysts highlight the key US policy areas to watch in Europe, Asia-Pacific and Latin America -- and discuss which economies and sectors could be at risk if policies were to dramatically change.Guests: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings; Gong Cheng, Managing Director, Credit Strategy, Moody's Ratings; Ariane Ortiz-Bollin, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Credit Strategy, Moody's RatingsHost: William Foster, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings

Sarah Carlson is joined by the lead analyst for the US, William Foster, and Chief Credit Officer for the Americas, Elena Duggar, to discuss their expectations for fiscal, trade and immigration policy under both US presidential candidates, and what they could mean for the US economy and credit.Speakers: William Foster, Senior Vice President at Moody's Ratings; Elena Duggar, MD-Credit Strategy at Moody's RatingsHost: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President at Moody's Ratings

In today's episode, we're joined by Hans Peter Lankes, Managing Director of the think tank ODI, as well as Kathrin Muehlbronner from Moody's Ratings to discuss the effectiveness of recent reform proposals in increasing the lending capacity of multilateral development banks (MDBs) and what they think is needed for MDBs to better address global challenges like climate change, poverty, and inequality.Speakers: Hans Peter Lankes, Managing Director of ODI; Kathrin Muehlbronner, Senior Vice President at Moody's RatingsHost: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President at Moody's Ratings 

China has rapidly become the largest producer of electric vehicles (EV) globally, with a nearly 40% increase in sales volume last year. In this episode, Colin Ellis talks with our analyst Gerwin Ho about the drivers behind this growth, how a drive to boost scale amid intense domestic competition has prompted them to look elsewhere and the difficulties they will encounter in boosting exports and setting up overseas production.Speaker: Gerwin Ho, VP-Senior Credit Officer, Corporate Finance Group at Moody's RatingsHost: Colin Ellis, MD-Global Credit Strategist at Moody's RatingsRelated Research:Auto and Auto Parts Manufacturers – China: Chinese EV makers will broaden expansion into emerging markets amid US, EU tariffs

With macroeconomic matters moderating, geopolitics has taken center stage with conflicts in the Middle East and elsewhere threatening the world order. In this episode, host Colin Ellis calls on NATO advisor and geopolitics expert Klaus Dodds to assess today's political and environmental flash points. Dodds sees a “world full of wicked problems” and considers some pragmatic outcomes, including potential Ukrainian concessions to Russia.Speaker: Klaus Dodds, Executive Dean and Professor of Geopolitics of the School of Life Sciences at Royal Holloway, University of LondonHost:  Colin Ellis, MD-Global Credit Strategist at Moody's Ratings

We forecast growing demand for cloud services, the adoption of new AI products and cryptocurrencies will see investment in new data center capacity exceed $2 trillion globally over the next five years. But real customer demand and continued technological improvements could limit the amount of data center capacity that is actually needed over the longer term. In this episode, John Medina explains what risks this uncertainty poses to investors in the corporate credit, leveraged loan, bank, CMBS, ABS, private credit and project finance markets.Speaker: John Medina, Senior Vice President at Moody's RatingsHost: Colin Ellis, MD-Global Credit Strategist at Moody's RatingsRelated Research:Data Centers – Global: Rapid capacity growth to serve surging computing demand poses long-term risks 

On 7 July, France held the second and final round of legislative elections, which produced a shock upset for Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National party after strong first round. But with no clear path to a majority and France's inexperience with broad political coalitions, the country now faces an uncertain political future. Sarah Carlson discusses what this could mean for the French sovereign rating and the rest of Europe.Speaker: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President at Moody's RatingsHost: William Foster, Senior Vice President at Moody's RatingsRelated Research:Government of France: FAQ on hung parliament following National Assembly elections

The digital transformation of the global economy offers big opportunities for companies and governments but also increases their exposure to private and state-backed cyberattacks. In this episode, we talk about the recent rise in these attacks, how new advances like Gen AI are making them more sophisticated, their effects on our assessment of credit risk, and the strategies companies are adopting to protect themselves.Speaker: Leroy Terrelonge, VP-Analyst/Cyber Credit Risk at Moody's RatingsHost: William Foster, Senior Vice President at Moody's Ratings

The lead analyst for the UK sovereign rating, Evan Wohlmann, joins Colin Ellis to discuss the potential outcomes, policy changes, and the role of Brexit and immigration in shaping the sovereign's future rating trajectory.Speaker: Evan Wohlmann, VP-Sr Credit Officer at Moody's RatingsHost: Colin Ellis, MD-Global Credit Strategist at Moody's RatingsRelated Research:Government Policy – UK: New government could boost growth, but faces fiscal and institutional hurdles 

Last week, President Biden announced that the US will increase tariffs on $18 billion of imports from China in sectors like electric vehicles, semiconductors and solar panels. In this episode, we review the implications of these measures on the US and Chinese economies, the individual sectors we rate, and for the future of US-China trade ties.Speakers: Dima Cvetkova, Analyst/CSR at Moody's Ratings, Elena Duggar, MD-Credit Strategy at Moody's RatingsHost: William Foster, Senior Vice President at Moody's Ratings

The world of finance is always changing. There's always a new kid on the block, and one of the fastest growing asset classes in recent years is this thing called private credit. But what exactly is private credit and what kind of risks does it pose? That's the topic we will be discussing today with Christina Padgett, an associate managing director in our Corporate Finance Group. Speaker: Christina Padgett, Associate Managing Director at Moody's RatingsHost: Colin Ellis, MD-Global Credit Strategist at Moody's Ratings

Following updates in the first quarter of this year, positive outlooks now outnumber the negative ones we assign to industry sectors globally. In this episode, we speak to Edmond DeForest about the drivers behinds these recent improvements despite the challenges facing the global economy and our expectations for business conditions in the next 12 to 18 months.Speaker: Edmond DeForest, Senior Vice President at Moody's RatingsHost: Colin Ellis, MD-Global Credit Strategist at Moody's Ratings

The tone has shifted since the meetings last year to cautious optimism about a soft landing for the global economy. But stubborn inflation, budget constraints and geopolitics present growing concerns, particularly in light of recent events in the Middle East. In this episode, we sit down with Marie Diron and Sarah Carlson from the sovereign team to discuss what this means for the future direction of sovereign ratings.Speakers: Marie Diron, MD-Global Sovereign Risk at Moody's Ratings; Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President at Moody's RatingsHost: William Foster, Senior Vice President at Moody's Ratings

It's a long way to global net zero emissions but some industrial efforts are getting traction. Proof-of-concept has been established in steelmaking, where hydrogen can help replace coal, and in aviation, where some planes are taking to the skies on biofuel. In this episode, we discuss the early stages of this transformation and what it will take to keep it going.Speaker: Rebecca Karnovitz, Vice President, Senior Credit Officer – ESG Group, Moody's RatingsHost: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President – Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings 

Computers are not just on your desk. They're in your phones, your cars, your microwave. Even washing machines are now computers. And the demand for the computer chips that these products use is an increasing focus not just for investors but also for governments globally. In this episode, we discuss how this intervention is impacting the big players and where the market is headed with our lead analyst for Nvidia and Intel, Raj Joshi.Speaker: Raj Joshi, Senior Vice President at Moody's RatingsHost: Colin Ellis, MD-Global Credit Strategist at Moody's Ratings

The rate will likely decline to 3.6% by the end of 2024, from a 5% peak in January, as central banks begin lowering policy rates.Speakers: Sharon Ou, VP-Sr Credit Officer/Mgr/CSRHost: Colin Ellis, MD-Global Credit Strategist

Female labour participation rates have more than recovered losses sustained during the pandemic. The associated boost in economic activity and support to households is positive for a range of issuers.Speakers: Dawn Holland, Director-Economic Research at Moody's Analytics; Ana Rayes, VP-Senior Analyst at Moody's Investors ServiceHost: William Foster, Senior Vice President at Moody's Investors Service

Around €300 billion of European spec-grade corporate debt needs refinancing by 2026, but uncertain market access, slower growth and higher interest rates increase risks for some lower rated entities. Speaker: Martin Hallmark, Senior Vice President-CFG at Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Colin Ellis, MD-Global Credit Strategist at Moody's Investors Service

Since 2020, there have been 20 sovereign defaults, surpassing the total in the entire previous decade. What factors led to this point, where are they concentrated and will they continue?Speakers: William Foster, Senior Vice President at Moody's Investors Service; David Rogovic, VP-Sr Credit Officer at Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President at Moody's Investors Service

Strong policies, innovation and falling costs are set to propel green capital spending this year. However, a busy election calendar and slowing economic growth could temper that momentum.Speaker: Rahul Ghosh, MD-Sustainable Finance at Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Colin Ellis, MD-Global Credit Strategist at Moody's Investors Service

A $4 billion fine for the cryptocurrency exchange Binance indicates greater regulatory focus that could bring more security and confidence to the crypto sector.Speaker: Cristiano Ventricelli, VP-Senior Analyst/DFDA at Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Colin Ellis, MD-Global Credit Strategist at Moody's Investors Service

In this episode of the Big Picture podcast, we delve into the factors underpinning our recent decision to change the outlook on the Chinese sovereign rating to negative.Speaker: Gene Fang, Associate Managing Director - Sovereign Risk Group at Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Colin Ellis, MD-Global Credit Strategist at Moody's Investors Service

The conflict's credit effects should be limited to Israeli issuers, but an escalation that disrupts global energy and financial markets would widen the scope significantly.Speakers: Kathrin Muehlbronner, Senior VP-Sovereign Risk at Moody's Investors Service; Laura Perez,  Associate MD-Credit Strategy at Moody's Investors ServiceHost: William Foster, Senior Vice President at Moody's Investors Service

In this episode of the Big Picture podcast, we delve into the reasons behind our outlook change, factors supporting the Aaa rating and opportunities to slow a decline in fiscal strength.Speaker: William Foster, Senior Vice President at Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Colin Ellis, MD-Global Credit Strategist at Moody's Investors Service

In this episode of the Big Picture podcast, we discuss our forecasts for G20 economic growth and inflation next year, and what this means for companies, lenders and governments.Speakers: Elena Duggar, MD-Credit Strategy; Madhavi Bokil, Senior VP-Credit StrategyHost: Sarah Carlson, Senior VP-SovereignRelated Research:Global Macro Outlook 2024-25: G-20 growth dynamics diverge amid ongoing global slowdown

In this episode of the Big Picture podcast, we discuss what is driving the recent fall in freight rates and what this could mean for the sector's efforts to decarbonize and the global economy.Guests: Daniel Harlid, VP-Senior Credit Officer within the Corporate Finance Group at Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Colin Ellis, MD-Global Credit Strategist at Moody's Investors Service

Our forecasts suggest a decline in debt/GDP ratios for around 80 of the 140 sovereigns we rate next year. However, social and environmental demands, coupled with higher-for-longer interest rates, pose larger fiscal challenges for some.Guests: Marie Diron, MD – Global Sovereign Risk, and Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President at Moody's Investors ServiceHost: William Foster, Senior Vice President at Moody's Investors Service

In this episode of the Big Picture podcast, we discuss the narrative around the dollar's demise, the implications for the global economy and the viability of its rivals.Guests: Al Wilson, Chief Credit Officer at Moody's Investors Service (MIS), and William Foster, Senior Vice President at Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President at Moody's Investors Service

In this episode of the Big Picture podcast, we discuss the hype around generative AI, which sectors and countries stand to gain most, and the risks they need to manage.Guests: Vincent Gusdorf, Senior Vice President within the Digital Finance group at Moody's Investors Service (MIS), and Christian Fang, VP-Senior Analyst in the Sovereign Risk group at MIS. Host: Matt Bridle, AVP within the Research Group at Moody's Investors Service

In this episode of the Big Picture podcast, we delve into the world of shadow banking, exploring its recent rapid growth, where we think the risks are, the challenges facing regulators, and the potential threats to financial stability.Guests: Colin Ellis, MD-Global Credit Strategist at Moody's Investors Service, and Michael Taylor, MD-Credit Strategy at Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Jennifer Wong, VP-Sr Credit Officer at Moody's Investors Service

Barring gains in productivity, participation rates, skills, education and experience, the coming drag on growth and public finances will be significant.Guests: Christian de Guzman, Senior Vice President/Manager at Moody's Investors Service, and Anushka Shah, Vice President-Senior Credit Officer at Moody's Investors ServiceHost: William Foster, Senior Vice President at Moody's Investors Service

On this episode of the Big Picture podcast, our analysts explore the situation in labor markets and its broader implications for the global economy and corporate credit quality.Guests: Yasmina Serghini, Managing Director within the Corporate Finance Group at Moody's Investors Service, and Gabriel Agostini, Assistant Vice President within the Credit Strategy and Research Group at Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Jennifer Wong, Vice President – Senior Credit Office within the Sub-Sovereign Group at Moody's Investors Service

As higher borrowing costs and structural shifts compound cyclical trends in commercial real estate, our analysts explain where the risks lie and how they could affect lenders and the broader economy. Guests: Ana Arsov, MD- Financial Institutions at Moody's Investors Service, Keith Banhazl, MD-Structured Finance at Moody's Investors Service and Matthias Hellstern, MD-Corporate Finance at Moody's Investors ServiceHost: William Foster, Senior Vice President within the Sovereign Risk team at Moody's Investors Service

Policy rates may be approaching their peaks, but central bankers are unlikely to change course anytime soon. In this episode of The Big Picture podcast, we discuss what this means for credit risk.Guests: Atsi Sheth, MD-Global Strategy & Research at Moody's Investors Service, and Jorge Rodriguez-Valez, Senior Vice President within Global Strategy & Research at Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President within the Sovereign Risk team at Moody's Investors Service

The underutilization of women in the workforce has a huge cost in terms of lost productivity and economic output around the world. What progress has been made and what will it take for women to achieve parity in labor force participation, pay and management roles?Guests: Dawn Holland, Director of Economic Research, Moody's Analytics, and Raphaele Auberty, Analyst – Sub-sovereign Group, Moody's Investors Service.Host: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Investors Service.To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

The chief economist of Moody's Analytics joins host William Foster to discuss the consequences of debt limit brinkmanship for the US sovereign, the economy and global financial markets.   Guest: Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics.Host: William Foster, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Investors Service.To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

One year after Russia invaded Ukraine, European economies are confronting a plethora of challenges and a transformed geopolitical landscape. We discuss the trade-offs for Europe as it seeks long-term replacements for Russian gas supplies while keeping decarbonization plans on track, the prospects for certain countries in stabilizing their government debt levels, and how European policymakers are responding to the US Inflation Reduction Act. Guests: Jeromin Zettelmeyer, Director, Bruegel.Host: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President – Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Investors Service.To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

Home prices are falling in the US and Europe after a surge during COVID-19, as interest rates rise at a rapid clip and economic growth slows. On this episode, we discuss what's different about this housing market downturn, particularly the big changes in mortgage lending since the global financial crisis, and why the credit performance of outstanding European mortgages will likely be much more uneven in the current higher interest rate environment compared with mortgages in the US. We also discuss why many US consumers will still struggle with home affordability even as home prices come down.Guests: Madhavi Bokil, Senior Vice President – Credit Strategy & Research, Moody's Investors Service; Luisa De Gaetano Polverosi, Associate Managing Director – Structured Finance Group, Moody's Investors Service.Host: Jennifer Wong, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Sub-Sovereign Group, Moody's Investors Service.To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

ESG issues will come into sharp relief this year as corporate debt issuers grapple with growing scrutiny over their decarbonization plans, social risks intensify and the rules of the road for ESG investments evolve – all in an environment of heightened macroeconomic, financial and geopolitical risks. In this episode, we discuss the highlights of our recently published ESG Outlook and what are the key ESG trends that will shape credit quality in 2023.Guests: Rahul Ghosh, Managing Director – Sustainable Finance, Moody's Investors Service; Rebecca Karnovitz, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Environmental, Social and Governance Group, Moody's Investors Service.Host: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President – Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Investors Service.To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

We discuss how recent geopolitical realignments and the splintering of international trade and financial flows will have credit effects for many sovereigns, and how deepening regionalization, not globalization, may be the trend of the future.Guests: Anne Van Praagh, Managing Director, Global Sovereign Risk, Moody's Investors Service; and Shannon K. O'Neil, Vice President, Deputy Director of Studies, and Nelson and David Rockefeller Senior Fellow for Latin America Studies, Council on Foreign Relations.Host: William Foster, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group.To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

On this episode, we assess the major policy announcements from the COP27 climate summit and what they mean for the sovereign and corporate credit environment and for climate risk modeling. We discuss the “loss and damage” agreement on providing aid to poorer countries that have suffered some of the worst effects of climate change, innovations in climate finance, and what new technologies will be needed to bring about carbon transition of hard-to-abate business sectors.Guests: Marie Diron, Managing Director – Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Investors Service; Swami Venkataraman, Associate Managing Director – Environmental, Social and Governance, Moody's Investors Service; and Robert Muir-Wood, Chief Risk Officer, RMS, Moody's Corp.Host: Jennifer Wong, Vice President, Sub-Sovereign Group, Moody's Investors Service.To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

In this special episode to coincide with the publication of Moody's 2023 Global Credit Conditions Outlook, we discuss how persistent inflation, rising interest rates and slowing growth will cast a cloud over the borrowing environment next year. We look at the factors that make this turn in the credit cycle unique, and the likely path for corporate and sovereign defaults. We also examine why social challenges are a risk we are watching especially closely, and where there could be potential for positive economic surprises that would help stabilize credit conditions.Guests: Elena Duggar and Colin Ellis, Managing Directors for Credit Strategy at Moody's Investors Service.Host: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President – Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Investors Service.To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

Long-time emerging markets investor Mark Mobius speaks with Atsi Sheth of Moody's about the risks and opportunities in the current macroeconomic environment, effects of the strong dollar, and the outlook for cryptocurrencies as an asset class. This interview took place on the sidelines of Moody's recent South Africa Risk Summit in Johannesburg, and also touches on Dr. Mobius's views on investing in Africa and how he thinks increased digitalization of economies will play a large role in improving governance frameworks across the continent.Guests: Mark Mobius, Founder and Partner, Mobius Capital Partners LLP; Atsi Sheth, Managing Director –Credit Strategy & Research, Moody's Investors Service.Host: William Foster, Vice President –Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Investors Service.To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture  page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

For banks in the US and Europe, this year's sharp climb in interest rates has been positive for their performance, helping lift net interest income and net interest margins. But the higher rate environment could become unfavorable for banks as margin improvement begins to taper off and higher credit costs take hold. How are banks preparing? What do prior monetary policy cycles tell us about the correlation between higher interest rates and margin performance? And what happens if borrowers can no longer afford their higher debt-service obligations, especially if the economy weakens further?Guests: Jorge Rodriguez-Valez, Senior Vice President, Credit Strategy & Risk Group, Moody's Investors Service; Allen Tischler, Senior Vice President, Financial Institutions Group, Moody's Investors Service.Host: Jennifer Wong, Vice President, Sub-Sovereign Group, Moody's Investors Service.To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).